Letters from an American 11-13-24
November 14, 2024 7:00 AM   Subscribe

In this time of madness, Heather Cox Richardson shares wisdom and small seeds of hope* regarding the days to come. "The rift between the pre-2016 leaders of the Republican Party and the MAGA Republicans is still obvious, and Trump’s reliance on Elon Musk and his stated goal of deconstructing the American government could make it wider."

While Trump is claiming a mandate to do as he wishes with the government, Republicans interested in their own political future are likely noting that he actually won the election by a smaller margin than President Joe Biden won in 2020, despite a global rejection of incumbents this year. And he won not by picking up large numbers of new voters—it appears he lost voters—but because Democratic voters of color dropped out, perhaps reflecting the new voter suppression laws put into place since 2021.

Then, too, Trump remains old and mentally slipping, and he is increasingly isolated as people fight over the power he has brought within their grasp. Today his wife, Melania, declined the traditional invitation from First Lady Jill Biden for tea at the White House and suggested she will not be returning to the presidential mansion with her husband. It is not clear either that Trump will be able to control the scrabbling for power over the party by those he has brought into the executive branch, or that he has much to offer elected Republicans who no longer need his voters, suggesting that Congress could reassert its power.

Falling into line behind Trump at this point is not necessarily a good move for a Republican interested in a future political career.


*Hope that democracy may survive, despite the horrors to come.
posted by Glinn (43 comments total) 47 users marked this as a favorite
 
This made me feel (slightly) better, and I thought it might have the same effect on other folks.
posted by Glinn at 7:04 AM on November 14 [11 favorites]


Is there any evidence that voter suppression efforts explain trumps win? I don’t think so.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:11 AM on November 14 [11 favorites]


I am a HCR fan. Or is it an HCR fan? No matter. Her pieces are an efficient way to take in the political news and gives me starting points for further reading.
posted by bz at 7:40 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


One thing that surprised me in the first term of TFG was how much power people like McConnell were willing to give up to him. I thought there would be a bit more jockeying or just icing him out. Then again, his supreme court people have surprised me by occasionally going against his wishes. With him being this old and kooky I would expect a bit more elbows thrown for power this time around.

What I would be most surprised by is if Trump and Musk can stick together. They are both such pathetic needy egos that it just seems like a temporary arrangement before they each need more idolatry than the other can give.

But then again I don't get rich people get all excited about Republicans at all considering they cause economic downturns whenever they take office, so what do I know. Line go up is a foreign language to me.
posted by Emmy Rae at 7:41 AM on November 14 [13 favorites]


small seeds of hope

Isn't it pretty to think so?
posted by kirkaracha at 7:41 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


And he won not by picking up large numbers of new voters—it appears he lost voters

Is there any interpretation of this that is true? We still don’t have a final count but the way projections are trending it sure looks like he’s gained voters over 2020 - 3 million or so, though Dems may have lost close to twice that many.

Don’t tell me this is yet another person who should really, really know better running with mid-election-week results.
posted by atoxyl at 7:49 AM on November 14 [7 favorites]


Isn't it pretty to think so?

A lot of MeFites seem ready to declare these people evil geniuses and roll over. But unless you are very privileged and / or have no moral spine, you have no choice but to fight alongside the rest of us.

That can look like a lot of things - we are all exhausted, discouraged and angry - it might be nothing more than making an extra effort to be decent to people and help a little extra than you would have otherwise. But we need to have some courage, ethical fiber, and historical awareness of the absolute necessity of resisting these ghouls however possible. There will be many ways to do this. Future generations of Americans are watching us.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:52 AM on November 14 [95 favorites]


Honestly, I find cynical comments like "Isn't it pretty to think so?" and the endless strings of fighting and backbiting to be evidence that Metafilter feeds into my exhaustion. I'd rather hang out with folks who are looking for ways forward and aren't continuing to pull each other down with their complaints.

This place does not give me energy any more. And energy to collaborate, find common ground, and support our communities is a precious commodity; and I'm done with spending that here.
posted by bl1nk at 8:01 AM on November 14 [74 favorites]


"Nobody knows nothing", William Goldman said about Hollywood. We can say the same about the disaster we are about to experience.
The nominations here are of a criminal appointing other criminals to protect the criming that is about to go down.
How can I steal your money if you are going to be watching? Well, just get rid of the watchers.
Unless any of these "moderate Republicans" simply start voting with the Democrats, they are simply lying and covering their ass.
posted by pthomas745 at 8:06 AM on November 14 [14 favorites]


I was under the strong impression that Trump handed Musk the "DOGE" portfolio and paired him up with Vivek precisely in order to sideline him. Musk is never going to be able to resist saying he thinks Trump is stupid, and whereas Trump DOES have a high Charisma score even though it only works on stupid people, Musk's is real low, but he's delulu and thinks people love him. I can't wait for the public breakup.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 8:17 AM on November 14 [17 favorites]


A friend is dying in the next day or so. I tried, as the Quakers phrase it, to 'hold her in the light'. It was so hard, it feels so dark. I started reading HCR during Covid, and her factual, straightforward, well-cited writing is incredibly helpful.
posted by theora55 at 8:19 AM on November 14 [43 favorites]


Honestly, I find cynical comments like "Isn't it pretty to think so?" and the endless strings of fighting and backbiting to be evidence that Metafilter feeds into my exhaustion. I'd rather hang out with folks who are looking for ways forward and aren't continuing to pull each other down with their complaints.

Agreed. I also get the vibe that people who catastrophize aren't involved in actually making things better or interested in helping out. I mean, I noped out of MeFi for the first Trump term because so many people were just unhappy (rightfully so!) but were determined to make you as unhappy as they were too.

Listen, I saw a stellar sunrise this morning and the catastrophizers can hate their lives, but I still find pockets of joy everyday.
posted by Kitteh at 8:34 AM on November 14 [57 favorites]


... cynical comments like "Isn't it pretty to think so?" and the endless strings of fighting and backbiting ...

bl1nk, I hear you, and also prefer to seek out plans and paths forward, than give in to resignation and cynicism. I can see both types of comments in every MeFi thread, this one included.

What works for me is to skim and dismiss the one type, and for the other, to spend a moment to consider its utility in building my plan and path.

For me, HCR is a historian, not a planner. She offers perspective. We've been here before. We've been considerably worse, in fact.

I think it's foolish to hope that the remnants of the old GOP power structure will suddenly grow a spine and stand up to MAGA. I think we need to prepare for the looming possibility that someone smarter, more organized, and more motivated will sieze the opportunity the MAGA bomb-throwers have provided.

I think we need to hold our friends close, prepare to fight, and as Molly Ivins said, "never forget to have fun doing it."
posted by panglos at 8:50 AM on November 14 [24 favorites]


The Onion buys Alex Jones's Infowars at auction. The Onion's "CEO" also released a statement:
What’s next for InfoWars remains a live issue. The excess funds initially allocated for the purchase will be reinvested into our philanthropic efforts that include business school scholarships for promising cult leaders, a charity that donates elections to at-risk third world dictators, and a new pro bono program pairing orphans with stable factory jobs at no cost to the factories.

As for the vitamins and supplements, we are halting their sale immediately. Utilitarian logic dictates that if we can extend even one CEO’s life by 10 minutes, diluting these miracle elixirs for public consumption is an unethical waste. Instead, we plan to collect the entire stock of the InfoWars warehouses into a large vat and boil the contents down into a single candy bar–sized omnivitamin that one executive (I will not name names) may eat in order to increase his power and perhaps become immortal.

All will be revealed in due time. For now, let’s enjoy this win and toast to the continued consolidation of power and capital.
My small joy today.
posted by lock robster at 8:55 AM on November 14 [39 favorites]


Well. I was hoping this thread would be one of the more positive ones - that was the main reason I posted it, as a break from all the others. But I get it, it's really ugly out there.
posted by Glinn at 8:58 AM on November 14 [19 favorites]


Glinn, I found it really helpful. Thank you for posting.
posted by cooker girl at 9:00 AM on November 14 [30 favorites]


I don’t think believing that Republicans will roll over for Trump means you have to be hopeless. While “there is no hope” isn’t super-helpful, you need to adequately assess reality to figure out how to change it, and I think HCR is a bit over-optimistic. Which is fine if what you need rn is words of comfort (no judgment, we all need that sometimes), but less so if you’re trying to figure out how to prepare and protect people.
posted by vim876 at 9:02 AM on November 14 [7 favorites]


While “there is no hope” isn’t super-helpful, you need to adequately assess reality to figure out how to change it, and I think HCR is a bit over-optimistic.

Yeah, that was my reaction too. There's a type of thinking among well-meaning, progressive people that could be summed up as "our enemies are so obviously stupid, self-destructive and egotistic their dastardly schemes will just collapse on their own." For instance, there have been suggestions over in the deportations thread that there's no way the Trump administration could possibly deport 11 million people! It's just too hard! Or that Elon and Trump are so egotistical they'll fall out with each other before you can say boo. Well, I don't think it's a good idea to indulge that type of thinking for too long. What if we're wrong? I don't think Trump is stupid at all. The man just achieved the most astonishing political comeback in American history. I'm not saying this to dump on other people here, but be a little realistic about what could happen next.

I am firmly against despair-porn and catastrophizing too, but if you want to fight for your values and what you think is right against authorities / institutions that oppose them, I have always found it useful to assume nothing will change except by concerted, active resistance, rather than just assuming your enemies will muck it up.
posted by fortitude25 at 9:31 AM on November 14 [18 favorites]


Whether or not they'll still roll over for him, I do think HCR is right that there's a contingent of Republicans who would like to avoid getting their personal faces eaten and who are already scrambling to get their tax cuts through before Trump breaks the country.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 9:41 AM on November 14 [4 favorites]


I have always found it useful to assume nothing will change except by concerted, active resistance, rather than just assuming your enemies will muck it up.

Part of what this piece offers is a view of what potential weaknesses are in the reactionary coalition. I agree she is a bit overly optimistic, but any organizing group needs to do a power analysis and take a look at which legs would be easiest to kick out from under the table of power. Discussing their weak spots is worthwhile.
posted by Emmy Rae at 10:03 AM on November 14 [13 favorites]


I am leaning pretty heavily on Bluesky and filtering out certain names to keep up with things because I know really big stuff will get to me but hearing the gory details of what the assholes say or do just makes me sick, fretful, and ineffective. It's helped a lot honestly.

I've had to keep reminding myself that my ability to affect things is small but that also allows me to focus. I can't fix a global catastrophe, but I can help a neighbor, vote on local issues, and send my money to independent news sources. (That fuels me a lot, because national news was worse than useless, all the real work being done is elsewhere. It gives me joy to stop caring what the big media thinks, especially since everything they report is aimed at making me as afraid and confused as possible. )

I have spent so many elections gazing into the abyss of political forecasting and party politics and pundits and it didn't help anything.

I don't know what's going to happen and I'm tired of speculating on it. I am full of grief of course, and rage, but I have to let that go or it will eat me up. If there is some way I can help mitigate any of it, then that's what I'll do.
posted by emjaybee at 10:19 AM on November 14 [11 favorites]


Heather Cox Richardson was a guest on this week's Jon Stewart's Weekly Show. It's worth a watch.
posted by ShooBoo at 10:30 AM on November 14 [12 favorites]


Maybe this is the wrong time/place to ask this, but, does anyone know elon's views on climate change? for all of his downsides he still comes off as a futurist, so surely he's sensible about this issue, no?
posted by OHenryPacey at 11:00 AM on November 14


Seconding what ShooBoo said about the HCR interview with Stewart; it's even more interesting to hear her talk about the direction of the US after the Civil War during her last book tour. She has a lot of practical analysis, and I admire her willingness to keep saying useful and not sugar coated perspectives during this aftermath.

Thanks Glinn for posting this, it lifted my spirits. My response has been to be more supportive of this smart,well read, progressive community here on MetaFilter. I really dislike the public flameout/account close move, which is often the MetaTalk hallmark. I need this community and value it even more to help me get through this debacle.

Also, I hate autocorrect.
posted by effluvia at 11:04 AM on November 14 [8 favorites]


My (definitely uninformed) take on Muskass is he probably does believe in climate change but doesn't care to change anything because he plans to be ruling on Mars before the world ends.
posted by Glinn at 11:06 AM on November 14 [6 favorites]


does anyone know elon's views on climate change?

While not a perfect answer, this piece on Musk signing on to destroying the EV tax credit, in hopes that it will wreck his domestic competition (Trump's tariffs taking care of the rest) does point to a certain view on climate change--that it is a profit opportunity rather than a solvable problem. Musk has in the past agreed that climate change is a problem (and said in 2021 that the Biden administration's climate policies had him 'super fired up'). I'm not sure he has been interviewed about it this week.
posted by mittens at 11:09 AM on November 14 [6 favorites]


Thank you so much for posting this, Glinn.

I have been a fan of Heather Cox Richardson for quite a while; I have quoted her often here on MetaFilter, and I'm pretty sure MetaFilter is where I learned about her.

I don't think she's right about everything - I don't think ANYONE's right about everything - but I think she's smart and thoughtful and cares about the nation, and about truth, and wants the nation to find and forge a way toward a better, more perfect union as much as anybody. I really appreciate her perspectives; her grounding in history helps her say things I don't see anywhere else. And I learn so much from her - I'm sure I know that "Franklin Delano Roosevelt was himself a wealthy man", but I never think of him that way, and it's good to learn new things about the complexity of the world.

I also get to discuss her with an old friend of the family, a man old enough to have served in WW II, who was a lifelong Republican until some point in the last 20 years, and now has views that would fit in pretty well here on MetaFilter. Letters from an American is one of the things he tries to read every day.

She writes, "Falling into line behind Trump at this point is not necessarily a good move for a Republican interested in a future political career." and I think it's worth noting that even over in the House, there has been a striking lack of unity around Trump's preferred moves, especially any that require voting FOR something. It's easier to get all the Republicans to vote against something, but there was no unity on choosing a Speaker, and there was no unity on the budget bills - the hard-liners can cause chaos given the tiny tiny majority, but there were ultimately enough Republicans who broke with Trump and voted for various continuing resolutions and other budget bills, because they recognize that the Republicans shutting down the government does not win them any voters.

I certainly don't think the less-MAGA Republicans will save us, or that ANYTHING will save us, other than our own dedication and resistance; but I do think it's helpful to be clear-eyed about all the information available to us, including the fact that Trump didn't get his Senate leader pick, and that there's already infighting among the various factions around him. I agree with Emmy Rae that discussing their weak spots is worthwhile.

I really appreciate HCR, and everyone who is trying to be thoughtful and careful in looking at what just happened and how we can best move forward, defending each other, resisting, encouraging each other.

I appreciate you sharing this with us, Glinn. Thank you!
posted by kristi at 11:43 AM on November 14 [13 favorites]


I'm pretty sure MetaFilter is where I learned about her
same! (and realized after I hit post I could have included some previouslies)
posted by Glinn at 11:50 AM on November 14


he is increasingly isolated

Getting in on the ground floor this time, I see.
posted by atoxyl at 12:16 PM on November 14 [10 favorites]


I am a Boston College alum, and Heather Cox-Richardson exemplifies everything good about B.C. and higher ed in general: thoughtfulness, sharing of expertise, a humane perspective.

She's the only reason that I haven't flamed a group of turds who won't flush (a.k.a. the B.C. Republicans club) for their fragility, lack of introspection, and failure to live the Gospels on the very same campus. A letter to the editor about them finishes so:
I conclude with this anecdote: In May 2021, the president of BC Republicans hijacked a Climate Justice at Boston College demonstration to declare his club was “a suppressed group on campus.” A protester shouted back, “You literally have a megaphone right now.”
posted by wenestvedt at 12:19 PM on November 14 [13 favorites]


Twelve Republican senators voted for the Respect for Marriage act in 2022 under Biden. Eight of them are still serving. These include Joni Ernst, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Thom Tillis, and Todd Young, who are all mentioned in this article as critical of Trump's Gaetz pick. These are Republicans who have shown they are willing to vote against party even though it meant handing a win to Biden. I don't know if they'll also be willing to buck Trump, and I'm not banking anything on their moral fiber--but it's reason enough to pause and reconsider the idea that every Republican will now definitely vote for all of the horrible things Trump wants to do.
posted by brook horse at 3:42 PM on November 14 [4 favorites]


It is not totally impossible that Lisa Murkowski will find the fortitude to turn her oft-expressed concerns into action but it's a horribly weak reed on which to lean one's hopes of preventing the worst of Trump's excesses.

Besides her general unreliability in such matters, there's the additional complication of Alaska (2024) Ballot Measure 2.

Prior to the election just concluded, one might have had more hope of her bucking the Republican party line and following her conscience on crucial votes, as she was in a good position to be re-elected without being the Republican party favorite for her seat (as she has managed twice in the past - once as a write-in candidate and most recently as a beneficiary of Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system.) Unfortunately the Ranked Choice Voting that allowed greater independence from the party looks like it will be gone after this election - following a Republican-funded ballot proposal campaign to reverse the system first used in the 2020 election cycle, it looks very likely that opponents of Ranked Choice Voting have narrowly managed to destroy it. The results are not final and the gap is down to less than a percent or two but RCV is expected to be repealed by a very narrow margin.
posted by Nerd of the North at 7:01 PM on November 14 [2 favorites]


Whether or not he gets a third term or just remains in office until he dies, the damage will be significant and permanent. A full recovery will be impossible, but perhaps something will be salvaged from the mess. Loyalty to him has been shown to pay off big time, pinning hopes on some Republicans standing up to him is likely to end in disappointment.
posted by tommasz at 3:08 AM on November 15 [6 favorites]


Some of us believe the very worst effects may be blunted, and that we may be able to vote in a better Congress in two years. With the understanding that yes, it will be very, very ugly. People will die, possibly a shocking number will die. It will be very bad. But it may not last forever, and that is what this particular post is about, imo.

Folks who imagine the end of the world: We hear you. Maybe you're right! But you may be wrong, and you don't know what is actually going to happen any more than anyone else. And I for one believe it is pretty cool when a historian with more knowledge than most of us can give us the historical perspective on why the end of the world MIGHT not actually happen.

It sure would be nice if we could have a thread here and there with that little bit of hopefulness. I know some people think it's pretty stupid! Ok great, but maybe people can let a few threads go without proclaiming in every single one that the rest of us are ignorant followed by proclamations like "a full recovery will be impossible".
posted by Glinn at 6:47 AM on November 15 [5 favorites]


Some of us believe the very worst effects may be blunted, and that we may be able to vote in a better Congress in two years.

Given that Trump has picked a number of sitting Representatives in an already barely-Republican-majority Congress and that Democrats have done well in special elections, maybe sooner than that.
posted by Gelatin at 7:39 AM on November 15 [4 favorites]


Loyalty to that guy has also resulted in a lot of convictions and jail time, so it's not exactly a guarantee of positive future outcomes.

I'm in support of strategic, pragmatic hope.
posted by Goblin Barbarian at 10:13 AM on November 15 [3 favorites]


Expanding upon my previous comment expressing skepticism that Lisa Murkowski will save us from any of these appointees: it would be 100% on brand and in keeping with her past behavior that she could make a big public show of voting against the nominees -- but only if the votes have been counted and their nominations are going to move forward despite her vote.

(For instructive examples of her publicly condemning a nomination only to take no practical steps to stop it, I refer you to her behavior during the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh and other Supreme Court justices from Trump's first term.)
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:35 PM on November 15


"Falling into line behind Trump at this point is not necessarily a good move for a Republican interested in a future political career."

In addition to the above mentioned revocation of ranked choice voting, other maneuvers are also in play to keep US Reps and Senators in line.

Texas Senators Could Be Recalled Under New Proposal Under State Representative Brian Harrison's proposal, either of Texas' senators could be recalled by a simple majority in both chambers of the Texas Legislature. Harrison argued the legislation, Texas House Bill 1267, would "ensure our U.S. senators serve the best interest of the state of Texas."

He further states "Unfortunately, since the 17th Amendment, many have become beholden to DC special interests and complicit in the erosion of liberty and acceleration of America's move to a post-constitutional era...

"We must empower Texans to ensure our U.S. Senators serve the best interest of the State of Texas."

The 17th Amendment, which was ratified in 1913, states that "the Senate of the United States shall be composed of two Senators from each State, elected by the people thereof, for six years."

Full text of the bill
posted by beaning at 3:48 PM on November 15 [1 favorite]


A friend of mine is counting on the military to hold the line against trump because, he says "they operate on a different wavelength - all day long they are looking at reality." If the military doesn't back a Trump dictatorship and the general public doesn't support a change to the US constitution he'll be out in four years and in the meantime the goal is to prevent as much theft/dismantling of the US government and federal assets as possible.
posted by subdee at 7:26 AM on November 16 [1 favorite]


I think someone mentioned this in another thread, but I just listed to Stacy Abrams podcast Assembly Required, with HCR from Nov 14. Really, really good. Highly recommend. This also made me feel a little better. They know what is coming is bad, but they see a way forward, and that is exactly what's needed.

Some of the advice: find and strengthen your communities, including online communities. Act locally - volunteer for a campaign, run for office, support the candidates and organizations you believe in financially if you can. They want to separate and isolate us, don't let them.

Listen, especially to black women. If you are white and get invited to spaces that black women are not invited to, share the information you get. When the time comes to engage, show up and pitch in. Not just performatively, but take action with some risk, or at least be willing to go outside your comfort zone.

One of the key ways to fight back against an authoritarian government is to bring your best game. To bring the best game you have at whatever it is that you are really good at, because that kind of contribution to a society - whether it's organizing a car wash for the kids at the high school to raise money for a soccer field, or whether it's helping people at the nursing home or whether it's being a lawyer who can fight immigration cases - whatever you are good at. To bring that to a community, and to build a supportive community that makes the best of the people in it, and the work that is within it gives them joy, is the way that you bring down an authoritarian. Because they feed on fear and distrust and anger, and the degree to which you can say, no, that doesn't have a home here. What has a home here is people doing the best they can for each other and the best they can for themselves in terms of bringing their talents forward.
~Heather Cox Richardson (slightly paraphrased)

Be active and engaged and believe that we can fix this. Because we can fix this.
~Stacy Abrams
posted by Glinn at 2:36 PM on November 16 [5 favorites]


Twitter and responsible social media.

From Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen.
posted by Pouteria at 8:06 PM on November 16 [1 favorite]


Updating what I wrote previously:
Unfortunately the Ranked Choice Voting that allowed greater independence from the party looks like it will be gone after this election - following a Republican-funded ballot proposal campaign to reverse the system first used in the 2020 election cycle, it looks very likely that opponents of Ranked Choice Voting have narrowly managed to destroy it. The results are not final and the gap is down to less than a percent or two but RCV is expected to be repealed by a very narrow margin.
Results are not yet final but as of the most recent update from the Alaska Division of Elections, the "No on 2" position (equating to "do NOT repeal Ranked Choice Voting") is leading by an incredibly narrow margin. Things currently stand at 49.97% in favor of repeal vs. 50.03% in favor of keeping RCV, with the votes remaining to count consisting of absentee and early voting votes which have been favoring RCV (so far.)

So Alaska may narrowly have kept RCV. I wouldn't necessarily conclude that makes Murkowski any more likely to take a strongly principled stand but it does shift the motivational calculation a tiny bit.
posted by Nerd of the North at 5:44 PM on November 18 [2 favorites]


Something for people in the U.S. to do (again).

House Plans a Second Vote on Legislation That Would Give the Executive Branch Unchecked Powers to Silence Dissent.

Please contact your House Representative again and tell them to vote "no" on H.R. 9495, just like they did on 11/12.
posted by JDC8 at 7:40 PM on November 18 [1 favorite]


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