Harris to remain in power this time?
November 26, 2024 1:16 PM Subscribe
Ireland heads to the polls on Friday with the expected incumbents expected to continue in power.
Ireland's economy is booming - there are budget surpluses, plus recently there was a 14 billion euro windfall from Apple (that's roughly €3000 for every person in Ireland). Brexit has been a largely positive thing for Ireland, in that any foreign investor looking to expand into Europe, looks at Ireland and goes - English speaking, in the EU, highly educated workforce, low corporate tax rates, ah go on then. There are potential storm clouds on the horizon where a lot of the tax take comes from a small handful of tech and pharmaceutical companies, but it's probably fine. The main drivers of the Irish economy are Tech, Pharmaceuticals, Tourism and Farming, and exports are higher than imports.
As a result of the success (and the conservative with a small C policies), there is now a massive housing crisis and a need for more infrastructure (rail and trams particularly), which is enormously expensive though the state should be able to afford it. Housing, health, infrastructure, cost of living are top priorities, and everything else - including unification with the north is not a priority in this election.
Politics in Ireland is generally BORING, technocratic and competent. Corruption and scandals are pretty minimal - a recent "big" scandal was an overly-expensive bike shed built at the parliament building, where they spent the equivalent of a house in Dublin on it, and recently Simon Harris (current prime minister) just had a mini-scandal where he was aloof and dismissive of a constituent.
The voting system here is Single Transferrable Vote - it's awesome but complicated, but essentially means you end up with coalitions of broadly centrist parties with fringe views pushed out and people voting on the issues that actually matter to them rather than voting against someone. This means government coalitions where 2-4 parties are in government at a time rather than a single party.
According to the polls, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail (centre-right, conservative with a small c, technocratic) should get approximately 20% of the vote each and be in coalition next time together with some independents, the Greens and perhaps the Social Democrats. Sinn Fein (centre-left populist nationalists) will get roughly 20% of the vote too but nobody particularly wants to work with them so are unlikely to form part of the government. Greens, Social Democrats, Labour and Aontú should each get roughly 5% of the vote/seats. Independents (mostly the good kind rather than the extremists) will make up the remainder of the elected members of parliament.
Follow live on the national broadcaster RTÉ from Friday evening for the exit poll and results - perhaps this time a person called Harris will get the top job!
Ireland's economy is booming - there are budget surpluses, plus recently there was a 14 billion euro windfall from Apple (that's roughly €3000 for every person in Ireland). Brexit has been a largely positive thing for Ireland, in that any foreign investor looking to expand into Europe, looks at Ireland and goes - English speaking, in the EU, highly educated workforce, low corporate tax rates, ah go on then. There are potential storm clouds on the horizon where a lot of the tax take comes from a small handful of tech and pharmaceutical companies, but it's probably fine. The main drivers of the Irish economy are Tech, Pharmaceuticals, Tourism and Farming, and exports are higher than imports.
As a result of the success (and the conservative with a small C policies), there is now a massive housing crisis and a need for more infrastructure (rail and trams particularly), which is enormously expensive though the state should be able to afford it. Housing, health, infrastructure, cost of living are top priorities, and everything else - including unification with the north is not a priority in this election.
Politics in Ireland is generally BORING, technocratic and competent. Corruption and scandals are pretty minimal - a recent "big" scandal was an overly-expensive bike shed built at the parliament building, where they spent the equivalent of a house in Dublin on it, and recently Simon Harris (current prime minister) just had a mini-scandal where he was aloof and dismissive of a constituent.
The voting system here is Single Transferrable Vote - it's awesome but complicated, but essentially means you end up with coalitions of broadly centrist parties with fringe views pushed out and people voting on the issues that actually matter to them rather than voting against someone. This means government coalitions where 2-4 parties are in government at a time rather than a single party.
According to the polls, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail (centre-right, conservative with a small c, technocratic) should get approximately 20% of the vote each and be in coalition next time together with some independents, the Greens and perhaps the Social Democrats. Sinn Fein (centre-left populist nationalists) will get roughly 20% of the vote too but nobody particularly wants to work with them so are unlikely to form part of the government. Greens, Social Democrats, Labour and Aontú should each get roughly 5% of the vote/seats. Independents (mostly the good kind rather than the extremists) will make up the remainder of the elected members of parliament.
Follow live on the national broadcaster RTÉ from Friday evening for the exit poll and results - perhaps this time a person called Harris will get the top job!
Thanks for that summary, BigCalm. I admit that contemporary Irish politics enters my timeline only in the context of Irish support for Palestine and Palestinian causes. Are there considerable differences between the parties on this subject?
posted by all the versus at 1:41 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
posted by all the versus at 1:41 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
Pro-unification (they're in power in the north)
So how far off is TNG likely to be?
posted by supercres at 1:47 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
So how far off is TNG likely to be?
posted by supercres at 1:47 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
Interesting and hilarious - thanks BigCalm. Been meaning to dive more deeply into Irish politics (might try to retire there one day, though I'm one generation off from being grandfathered into citizenship). I listened to a recent podcast covering voting in Ireland, and hadn't until then realized they've been onto STV for a hundred years. Nice!
posted by angelplasma at 1:50 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
posted by angelplasma at 1:50 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
There are slight differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael - FF tend to be more socially conservative for example, with the party being more split on things like the abortion referendum. However, they are pretty interchangeable and one or the other (and more recently both) has been in government in Ireland pretty much since the beginning of the State.
The Single Transferable Vote is awesome, but its complexity does make it difficult for polls to predict a winner, as everything goes down to transfers. And voters have their own ways of deciding their preferences, which don't always make sense to an outsider. (There will always be some people giving their no 1 to People before Profit, say, but no. 2 to an extreme right-winger.)
The counting of the results will only start on Saturday morning, and usually goes on for several days as it's all done by hand, sometimes with recounts in individual constituencies.
posted by scorbet at 1:50 PM on November 26 [2 favorites]
The Single Transferable Vote is awesome, but its complexity does make it difficult for polls to predict a winner, as everything goes down to transfers. And voters have their own ways of deciding their preferences, which don't always make sense to an outsider. (There will always be some people giving their no 1 to People before Profit, say, but no. 2 to an extreme right-winger.)
The counting of the results will only start on Saturday morning, and usually goes on for several days as it's all done by hand, sometimes with recounts in individual constituencies.
posted by scorbet at 1:50 PM on November 26 [2 favorites]
I admit that contemporary Irish politics enters my timeline only in the context of Irish support for Palestine and Palestinian causes. Are there considerable differences between the parties on this subject?
Mostly, because it's not a "top" issue (housing, infrastructure, cost of living, health), the government's stance is not particularly controversial / discussed by other parties. It's nice to be on the right side of history I guess.
So how far off is TNG likely to be?
At least a generation, and (perhaps slightly controversial here) it might not happen at all. Right now, there is no border, citizens in either country can work in the other, the tax regimes and the laws are very similar - in practical terms, there is no advantage to union -- this is not an East Germany-West Germany tear down that wall situation. Also bear in mind that the island of Ireland as a single independent nation state has not existed for approximately 900 years - 400 years before the Americas were discovered - if you think that it's destiny that the two nations (north and south) might one day be a united nation - I mean, why? Because of similar cultures? Ireland has a very similar culture to Britain too but I don't see any calls for union there! I suspect rather than the "it's fate that the two must join", other paths are possible in future, but I'd be happy to be proved wrong.
posted by BigCalm at 2:04 PM on November 26 [4 favorites]
Mostly, because it's not a "top" issue (housing, infrastructure, cost of living, health), the government's stance is not particularly controversial / discussed by other parties. It's nice to be on the right side of history I guess.
So how far off is TNG likely to be?
At least a generation, and (perhaps slightly controversial here) it might not happen at all. Right now, there is no border, citizens in either country can work in the other, the tax regimes and the laws are very similar - in practical terms, there is no advantage to union -- this is not an East Germany-West Germany tear down that wall situation. Also bear in mind that the island of Ireland as a single independent nation state has not existed for approximately 900 years - 400 years before the Americas were discovered - if you think that it's destiny that the two nations (north and south) might one day be a united nation - I mean, why? Because of similar cultures? Ireland has a very similar culture to Britain too but I don't see any calls for union there! I suspect rather than the "it's fate that the two must join", other paths are possible in future, but I'd be happy to be proved wrong.
posted by BigCalm at 2:04 PM on November 26 [4 favorites]
Are there considerable differences between the parties on this subject?
Not really between the main three (FF, FG, SF) at least. If anything, SF would be even more vehement about it. I wouldn't rule out one or more of the extreme candidates or the smaller parties being pro-Israel but even one of the pro-Russia independent candidates supports Palestine.
posted by scorbet at 2:08 PM on November 26 [2 favorites]
Not really between the main three (FF, FG, SF) at least. If anything, SF would be even more vehement about it. I wouldn't rule out one or more of the extreme candidates or the smaller parties being pro-Israel but even one of the pro-Russia independent candidates supports Palestine.
posted by scorbet at 2:08 PM on November 26 [2 favorites]
Ireland is a small country far away? Not so small, if the Republic became the 51st state it would rank 24 in population: after MN and SC but more folks than AL and LA. Pol-wonk Gav Reilly explained PR-STV with smarties [3m] earlier this year [cited by roolya-boolya in the EuroElection thread]. Former minister and commentator Ivan Yates talks about the realkanvass in Ireland [16m].
Boyle Sports has odds on all sorts of numbers and combos. Gerry "The Monk" Hutch, the criminal cited above, is evens to take a seat in the same Dublin constituency as MaryLou McDonald, the Sinn Féin leader. In contrast to the regular fascists Hutch welcomes immigrants, so long as they bring their tool-chests.
posted by BobTheScientist at 2:11 PM on November 26 [3 favorites]
Boyle Sports has odds on all sorts of numbers and combos. Gerry "The Monk" Hutch, the criminal cited above, is evens to take a seat in the same Dublin constituency as MaryLou McDonald, the Sinn Féin leader. In contrast to the regular fascists Hutch welcomes immigrants, so long as they bring their tool-chests.
posted by BobTheScientist at 2:11 PM on November 26 [3 favorites]
I suspect rather than the "it's fate that the two must join", other paths are possible in future, but I'd be happy to be proved wrong.
It's good to hear your perspective re: borders and lack of necessity. I wonder how much of the idea is being driven from outside of Ireland. Here in the Boston area it's quite common for people to put a 26 + 6 = 1 bumper sticker on their car.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 2:17 PM on November 26 [3 favorites]
It's good to hear your perspective re: borders and lack of necessity. I wonder how much of the idea is being driven from outside of Ireland. Here in the Boston area it's quite common for people to put a 26 + 6 = 1 bumper sticker on their car.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 2:17 PM on November 26 [3 favorites]
Gerry "The Monk" Hutch, the criminal cited above, is evens to take a seat in the same Dublin constituency as MaryLou McDonald, the Sinn Féin leader.
Jaysus. I'm glad I don't have to make a preference list in Dublin Central. Who's worse? Clare Daly (the aforementioned pro-Russian candidate), one of those regular fascists or the convicted criminal? With the Aontú and the "Centre Party" (formerly known as Renua) guys to round it out.
posted by scorbet at 2:27 PM on November 26
Jaysus. I'm glad I don't have to make a preference list in Dublin Central. Who's worse? Clare Daly (the aforementioned pro-Russian candidate), one of those regular fascists or the convicted criminal? With the Aontú and the "Centre Party" (formerly known as Renua) guys to round it out.
posted by scorbet at 2:27 PM on November 26
Thanks for this post and for those who commented.
posted by drowsy at 9:32 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
posted by drowsy at 9:32 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]
re: "Irish support for Palestine and Palestinian causes."
Ireland Would Arrest Netanyahu Following ICC Warrant, PM Says - "'Yes absolutely. We support international courts and we apply their warrants,' Harris[*] told national broadcaster RTE on Friday when asked if Netanyahu would be arrested if he arrived in Ireland for whatever reason."
posted by kliuless at 10:34 PM on November 26 [6 favorites]
Ireland Would Arrest Netanyahu Following ICC Warrant, PM Says - "'Yes absolutely. We support international courts and we apply their warrants,' Harris[*] told national broadcaster RTE on Friday when asked if Netanyahu would be arrested if he arrived in Ireland for whatever reason."
posted by kliuless at 10:34 PM on November 26 [6 favorites]
Incumbents or not, all those elected are expected to accept Salient Rulings of the Chair [pdf 88pp] para 428
Insulting and abusive expressions applied to a Member, a Member's statement or a Member's actions or conduct which have from time to time been ruled to be disorderly:
brat buffoon chancer communist corner-boy coward fascist gurrier guttersnipe hypocrite rat scumbag scurrilous yahoo also lying and insinuations of drunkenness.
On the crystal ball front, Micheál Martin is favorite to be next Taoiseach because his Fianna Fáil are predicted to land most seats. He is also 7 to 2 favorite to be the next President in that election at the end of next year. “¿Por qué no los dos?”
posted by BobTheScientist at 2:01 AM on November 27 [1 favorite]
Insulting and abusive expressions applied to a Member, a Member's statement or a Member's actions or conduct which have from time to time been ruled to be disorderly:
brat buffoon chancer communist corner-boy coward fascist gurrier guttersnipe hypocrite rat scumbag scurrilous yahoo also lying and insinuations of drunkenness.
On the crystal ball front, Micheál Martin is favorite to be next Taoiseach because his Fianna Fáil are predicted to land most seats. He is also 7 to 2 favorite to be the next President in that election at the end of next year. “¿Por qué no los dos?”
posted by BobTheScientist at 2:01 AM on November 27 [1 favorite]
I'm an Irish woman, born and raised, and I'll tell you that reunification is a meme, literally just a meme at this point.
If it ever happens it'll be several generations down the road, and frankly I think the odds are decreasing over time rather than increasing.
posted by june_dodecahedron at 2:44 AM on November 27 [2 favorites]
If it ever happens it'll be several generations down the road, and frankly I think the odds are decreasing over time rather than increasing.
posted by june_dodecahedron at 2:44 AM on November 27 [2 favorites]
If Labour was a credible Left choice I think they'd do well, they are just like FF/G now and could stand to take a good look at the philosophy of their founders.
posted by Homemade Interossiter at 4:24 AM on November 27 [1 favorite]
posted by Homemade Interossiter at 4:24 AM on November 27 [1 favorite]
Sinn Fein - centre-left populist nationalists, yes to the welfare state, yes to interventionist policies on housing and transport, a bit racist on immigrants. Have a tendency to say whatever they think will get them elected, to the point where they regularly contradict themselves in different places. Pro-unification (they’re in power in the north), leader Mary-Lou is AWFUL - a right moaning michael.
To give a little more context for this: Sinn Féin benefited from a surge of support from voters sick of the mess that FF/FG have made for those of us without a property portfolio. They blundered by not running enough candidates to capitalise on that upswing back in 2020. This time round, they’ve blundered by trying to appeal to people with “legitimate concerns” about immigration (ie, bigots) which has seen them dwindle in the polls, and rightly so. No one’s bringing up immigration at the doorstep: it’s all about housing and healthcare.
For lefties like me, Ireland is a problem. Labour sold us out years ago; the Greens (as an institution; there are some individual exceptions) are “Tories on bicycles”, as they say; the Social Democrats are the closest to my personal politics but still a very small party, with about as much pull as PBP, so a left coalition is really a pipe dream (unless Labour really are about making up for what they did).
posted by macdara at 5:25 AM on November 27 [4 favorites]
To give a little more context for this: Sinn Féin benefited from a surge of support from voters sick of the mess that FF/FG have made for those of us without a property portfolio. They blundered by not running enough candidates to capitalise on that upswing back in 2020. This time round, they’ve blundered by trying to appeal to people with “legitimate concerns” about immigration (ie, bigots) which has seen them dwindle in the polls, and rightly so. No one’s bringing up immigration at the doorstep: it’s all about housing and healthcare.
For lefties like me, Ireland is a problem. Labour sold us out years ago; the Greens (as an institution; there are some individual exceptions) are “Tories on bicycles”, as they say; the Social Democrats are the closest to my personal politics but still a very small party, with about as much pull as PBP, so a left coalition is really a pipe dream (unless Labour really are about making up for what they did).
posted by macdara at 5:25 AM on November 27 [4 favorites]
Macdara: Sinn Féin benefited from a surge of support from voters sick of the mess.
Ditto Greens. I despoiled the landscape with A Lot of posters to help get Mary "Neighbour" White elected in 2007. The first run of [4ft x 2½ft] posters were bio-degradable and they all fell off their telegraph poles a week later when it rained. 2nd edition was (last-for-all-time) polypropylene. The parliamentary Green Party was reduced from N=6 to zero in 2011. Sorry to say but the smart money [Boyle Sports, Paddy Power] is on another WipeOut this week: N=12 to N=2 with a following wind, more likely zero.
posted by BobTheScientist at 8:46 AM on November 27
Ditto Greens. I despoiled the landscape with A Lot of posters to help get Mary "Neighbour" White elected in 2007. The first run of [4ft x 2½ft] posters were bio-degradable and they all fell off their telegraph poles a week later when it rained. 2nd edition was (last-for-all-time) polypropylene. The parliamentary Green Party was reduced from N=6 to zero in 2011. Sorry to say but the smart money [Boyle Sports, Paddy Power] is on another WipeOut this week: N=12 to N=2 with a following wind, more likely zero.
posted by BobTheScientist at 8:46 AM on November 27
To give a little more context for this: Sinn Féin benefited from a surge of support from voters sick of the mess that FF/FG have made for those of us without a property portfolio. They blundered by not running enough candidates to capitalise on that upswing back in 2020.
To give further context, while PR-STV is easy(-ish) as a voter - just rank candidates in order of preference until you no longer have any preference between those left - it can cause complications if you’re a party. All constituencies are multi-seat constituencies, so 3-5 TDs will be elected in each one. If you’re a small party, and not expecting much, you’ll usually put up one candidate at most in a constituency. Larger parties will put up two candidates and try and get them elected, particularly in 5 seaters.
However, if you try and put up two candidates, and not get the votes you need, or manage the votes badly, you can end up with the two basically canceling each other out, whereas a single candidate would have got in comfortably.
Sinn Féin were, prior to 2020, still a "small" party, and mostly had just one candidate. However, in 2020, they "should" have acted like a large party, and if they had, they’d probably have been in government. (To their defense, I’m not sure if they had enough credible candidates at the time. They were already scraping the bottom of the barrel in a few cases.)
The other point to remember is that constituencies in Ireland are small. There’s one TD per 20,000 to 30,000 of the population and TDs definitely need to be from the locality. So the chances of knowing at least one of your TDs personally is pretty high. (I was at school with one of my mother’s TDs, for example). That, added with the fact that you’re definitely voting for a person, rather than a party, can lead to sentences like "I was definitely not voting for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, except that yer man, Liam O'Brien, there, he’s a lovely fellow, and he was able to get the school sorted, so I might give him a vote”.
posted by scorbet at 11:55 AM on November 27 [4 favorites]
To give further context, while PR-STV is easy(-ish) as a voter - just rank candidates in order of preference until you no longer have any preference between those left - it can cause complications if you’re a party. All constituencies are multi-seat constituencies, so 3-5 TDs will be elected in each one. If you’re a small party, and not expecting much, you’ll usually put up one candidate at most in a constituency. Larger parties will put up two candidates and try and get them elected, particularly in 5 seaters.
However, if you try and put up two candidates, and not get the votes you need, or manage the votes badly, you can end up with the two basically canceling each other out, whereas a single candidate would have got in comfortably.
Sinn Féin were, prior to 2020, still a "small" party, and mostly had just one candidate. However, in 2020, they "should" have acted like a large party, and if they had, they’d probably have been in government. (To their defense, I’m not sure if they had enough credible candidates at the time. They were already scraping the bottom of the barrel in a few cases.)
The other point to remember is that constituencies in Ireland are small. There’s one TD per 20,000 to 30,000 of the population and TDs definitely need to be from the locality. So the chances of knowing at least one of your TDs personally is pretty high. (I was at school with one of my mother’s TDs, for example). That, added with the fact that you’re definitely voting for a person, rather than a party, can lead to sentences like "I was definitely not voting for Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, except that yer man, Liam O'Brien, there, he’s a lovely fellow, and he was able to get the school sorted, so I might give him a vote”.
posted by scorbet at 11:55 AM on November 27 [4 favorites]
might one day be a united nation - I mean, why?
Because the English are right bloody bastards?
posted by symbioid at 11:23 AM on November 28
Because the English are right bloody bastards?
posted by symbioid at 11:23 AM on November 28
Just watched Small Things Like These. Anyone even thinking of voting for Aontú should be made watch it on repeat.
posted by hfnuala at 11:35 AM on November 28 [2 favorites]
posted by hfnuala at 11:35 AM on November 28 [2 favorites]
I'll be voting green, social democrats, pbp, and we have one independent I might give a preference too.
Not voting ff or fg, especially after the Michael o leary teacher comments, plus inviting him at all was such a bad move.
But could totally see ff fg get back in.
Once aontu and the right wing nutters don't up their numbers I'll be happy. Well, happy is.
posted by Fence at 11:40 AM on November 28 [1 favorite]
Not voting ff or fg, especially after the Michael o leary teacher comments, plus inviting him at all was such a bad move.
But could totally see ff fg get back in.
Once aontu and the right wing nutters don't up their numbers I'll be happy. Well, happy is.
posted by Fence at 11:40 AM on November 28 [1 favorite]
it's a (SD ;) girl!
Leader of Irish opposition party gives birth on election day - "'Women have babies ... and we have to support them if we want more women to run,' party colleague Jennifer Whitmore told journalists on Wednesday."
posted by kliuless at 10:52 AM on November 29 [3 favorites]
Leader of Irish opposition party gives birth on election day - "'Women have babies ... and we have to support them if we want more women to run,' party colleague Jennifer Whitmore told journalists on Wednesday."
posted by kliuless at 10:52 AM on November 29 [3 favorites]
RTÉ did some charts based on yesterday’s exit poll (with the caveat that the tallies from today indicate that the poll may be a bit out, and FF probably got the most first preferences.)
As of now, 7 (out of 173, 174 if you count the ceann comhairle) have been elected - 2 FG, 3 SF, 1 FF and 1 Independent.
posted by scorbet at 10:53 AM on November 30 [1 favorite]
As of now, 7 (out of 173, 174 if you count the ceann comhairle) have been elected - 2 FG, 3 SF, 1 FF and 1 Independent.
posted by scorbet at 10:53 AM on November 30 [1 favorite]
Over halfway through the results, and while the Greens appear to have been almost completely destroyed (1 may be left with a seat, from 12), the very far right seems to have been kept pretty much at bay. (There’s still Aontú and "Independent Ireland" of course). The magic of STV also meant that (Marie) Sherlock was able to successfully catch Gerry Hutch.
Otherwise, it looks like it’s going to be more of the same, with the question more being which small party is going to sacrifice themselves to prop up FF/FG this time.
posted by scorbet at 10:44 AM on December 1 [3 favorites]
Otherwise, it looks like it’s going to be more of the same, with the question more being which small party is going to sacrifice themselves to prop up FF/FG this time.
posted by scorbet at 10:44 AM on December 1 [3 favorites]
scorbet: meant that (Marie) Sherlock was able to successfully catch Gerry Hutch.
She's done better than the Criminal Assets Bureau and the Kinahans, so. My 2 daughters voted in Dublin Central: for Gannon and Sherlock. So it's A Win for them
BobThePsephologist: another [Green] WipeOut this week: N=12 to N=2 with a following wind, more likely zero.
Final tally N=1. On the button, Bob!
Also the odds on Micheál Martin for President next year have slipped from (7 to 2) to (9 to 1) so that must mean he'll be next Taoiseach.
posted by BobTheScientist at 1:41 PM on December 1
She's done better than the Criminal Assets Bureau and the Kinahans, so. My 2 daughters voted in Dublin Central: for Gannon and Sherlock. So it's A Win for them
BobThePsephologist: another [Green] WipeOut this week: N=12 to N=2 with a following wind, more likely zero.
Final tally N=1. On the button, Bob!
Also the odds on Micheál Martin for President next year have slipped from (7 to 2) to (9 to 1) so that must mean he'll be next Taoiseach.
posted by BobTheScientist at 1:41 PM on December 1
Counting is all over - it does look like FF and FG in coalition together with some other independents, and possibly Labour and/or the Social Democrats in power next time around. One bright point is that the far right and other extremists made very few gains, and both SD and Labour seemed to do better than expected.
posted by BigCalm at 8:28 AM on December 3 [1 favorite]
posted by BigCalm at 8:28 AM on December 3 [1 favorite]
« Older Is that enough to account for all human bias? | enshittified legislation Newer »
Fine Gael - centre-right, competent and technocractic, conservative with a small c, have together with Fianna Fail been in power for years. Practically indistinguishable from Fianna Fail ( they fought on opposite sides of the civil war a century ago, but in terms of policy they're pretty much the same now)
Fianna Fail - centre-right, competent and technocratic, conservative with a small c, have together with Fine Gael been in power for years. Practically indistinguishable from Fine Gael.
Sinn Fein - centre-left populist nationalists, yes to the welfare state, yes to interventionist policies on housing and transport, a bit racist on immigrants. Have a tendency to say whatever they think will get them elected, to the point where they regularly contradict themselves in different places. Pro-unification (they're in power in the north), leader Mary-Lou is AWFUL - a right moaning michael.
Greens - almost certain to be part of a coalition, everyone likes a green policy but the major parties aren't actually all that bad on green issues. The problem with the greens is they are a bit BANANAs (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything) - i.e. NIMBYs on steroids - not what is needed right now.
Social Democrats - centre-left, liberal hand-wringing woke guardian-reading champagne-socialists.
Labour - left-wing and pro-union obviously, similar to UK labour but more farmer's union aligned, have suffered due to being in previous coalitions and taken the blame for some of the worse/most unpopular policies, and are at a low-ebb in their popularity currently. It's a cyclical thing, they're not popular now but they will make their way back at some point.
Aontú - Catholics. Traditionalists - anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-woke. Defined by what they hate rather than by what they stand for.
Independent Ireland - Racists
People before Profit - Marxists, far-left.
Other Independents - Mostly extremists though there's a few popular local ex-councillor turned TD; People too racist for Independent Ireland; criminals ); people too Marxist for People before Profit.
posted by BigCalm at 1:19 PM on November 26 [15 favorites]