Armageddon Tired of This
February 3, 2025 4:57 AM Subscribe
China builds huge wartime military command centre in Beijing
China Quietly Rebuilds Secretive Base for Nuclear Tests
I once went to Port Townsend Blues Festival in the 1990s with my late ex-girlfriend Tina. We went over on a ferry but drove back down the peninsula and drove up to Cougar Mountain. It was during SeaFair and there was one of those coined operated telescopes there. I first spotted the Blue Angels flying in their airshow over Seattle doing their loop de loops over Lake Washington. I then trained the telescope on the Trident submarine base just across Hood Canal. And saw a curved concrete bunker easily the size of a small town and at least 50 stories in height. It was enormous. It is impossible to find pictures of it online now. But come 2027 it may become visible again in the worst way.
Goodbye the US Navy in the Pacific, Guam, the Kitsap Peninsula Submarine Bunker and Seattle in the process.
The End
China Quietly Rebuilds Secretive Base for Nuclear Tests
I once went to Port Townsend Blues Festival in the 1990s with my late ex-girlfriend Tina. We went over on a ferry but drove back down the peninsula and drove up to Cougar Mountain. It was during SeaFair and there was one of those coined operated telescopes there. I first spotted the Blue Angels flying in their airshow over Seattle doing their loop de loops over Lake Washington. I then trained the telescope on the Trident submarine base just across Hood Canal. And saw a curved concrete bunker easily the size of a small town and at least 50 stories in height. It was enormous. It is impossible to find pictures of it online now. But come 2027 it may become visible again in the worst way.
Goodbye the US Navy in the Pacific, Guam, the Kitsap Peninsula Submarine Bunker and Seattle in the process.
The End
I really did not care for The Three Body Problem. I liked Ball Lightning, also by Cixin Liu, significantly better than Three Body. But the one thing that stood out to me about both books was the casual assumption that of course there would eventually be war between China and the US. I just really don't think most people in the US have that assumption at all.
On the thread here about shutting down Tik Tok, folks were talking about Red Note, and how ordinary young American and Chinese citizens were interacting and getting to know each other in surprising ways.
It's important to remember that the future is unwritten. Hopefully as history continues to spool out around us, we will see more of the latter of the above anecdotes, and fewer of the former. It seems like it might be important.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 5:25 AM on February 3 [15 favorites]
On the thread here about shutting down Tik Tok, folks were talking about Red Note, and how ordinary young American and Chinese citizens were interacting and getting to know each other in surprising ways.
It's important to remember that the future is unwritten. Hopefully as history continues to spool out around us, we will see more of the latter of the above anecdotes, and fewer of the former. It seems like it might be important.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 5:25 AM on February 3 [15 favorites]
It's the Daily Mail. The bullshit is even built into the headline - prepping for WW3. You got sight of the CCP's military plans then grubby British tabloid?
posted by treblekicker at 5:27 AM on February 3 [23 favorites]
posted by treblekicker at 5:27 AM on February 3 [23 favorites]
The Financial Times was where I first saw this story and my original choice but it just wouldn't work as you can see so I had to fall back on the Daily Mail. I'm not happy about that but thank you for your support.
posted by y2karl at 5:36 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 5:36 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
and here i thought we've had 70+ years of military scientists solemnly shaking their heads, muttering "it wouldn't make any difference anyway"
posted by AlbertCalavicci at 5:41 AM on February 3 [1 favorite]
posted by AlbertCalavicci at 5:41 AM on February 3 [1 favorite]
The FT broke this story, the Daily Fail is just a pickup.
I just finished reading Raven Rock by Garrett Graff about the US continuity of government program from the end of WWII up through the present day, with a worrying couple of chapters on how all this money spent on alternative locations and hardened bunkers and all the plans for who's next in line and who's the designated survivor and how are the comms working fell apart as soon as flecks of shit started to get near the fan.
[turns out in a wild coincidence the accident on the Potomac last week involved a helicopter dedicated to COG activity aka "doomsday readiness"]
posted by chavenet at 5:42 AM on February 3 [5 favorites]
I just finished reading Raven Rock by Garrett Graff about the US continuity of government program from the end of WWII up through the present day, with a worrying couple of chapters on how all this money spent on alternative locations and hardened bunkers and all the plans for who's next in line and who's the designated survivor and how are the comms working fell apart as soon as flecks of shit started to get near the fan.
[turns out in a wild coincidence the accident on the Potomac last week involved a helicopter dedicated to COG activity aka "doomsday readiness"]
posted by chavenet at 5:42 AM on February 3 [5 favorites]
I opened it in incognito mode and all was visible but we can't post here in incognito mode so there you are.
posted by y2karl at 5:43 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 5:43 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
chavenet, does this mean we never get President Roswell? That's too bad, she's really my favorite.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 5:47 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 5:47 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
Speaking only for myself, y2karl, I don't want to be unsupportive. We all deal with the world in different ways, and I try to avoid threads that are not for me. In this case, the first word I saw when I opened MetaFilter was "Armageddon." It gave me a nasty turn, and my heart rate briefly spiked, given recent news, both the general shitshow and the news that hit my feeds today that (I don't know if it's been posted here yet) it appears OpenAI is getting involved in U.S. nuclear weapons security.
posted by cupcakeninja at 5:48 AM on February 3
posted by cupcakeninja at 5:48 AM on February 3
President Xi, my people thirst for freedom!
posted by Krazor at 6:11 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
posted by Krazor at 6:11 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
The right wing media machine depends in part in maintaining enemies to fear. China and Russia had a hand in re-electing Trump. He owes them the biggest favour the world has ever seen. The world has just been divided up by three empires with the goal of preventing war between them. Any military buildup by China is likely to be employed annexing and subduing their own neighbors.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:16 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:16 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
He owes them the biggest favor the world has ever seen.
China?" 10% tariff
posted by robbyrobs at 6:18 AM on February 3 [1 favorite]
China?" 10% tariff
posted by robbyrobs at 6:18 AM on February 3 [1 favorite]
That tarrif is largely symbolic. Trump needs to maintain the illusion that security threats from China and Russia justify national security measures like annexing his neighbors. China likely considers it a small price to pay for getting absolute military freedom in Asia.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:19 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:19 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
The Daiy Mail article on the Very Scary China Killbuilding is illustrated with photographs of the National Ignition Facility fusion research building in Livermore, California.
It’s hard to avoid the suspicion that the Daily Mail editors assume, perhaps rightly, that its readers will either not notice or not care.
posted by Lemkin at 6:24 AM on February 3 [19 favorites]
It’s hard to avoid the suspicion that the Daily Mail editors assume, perhaps rightly, that its readers will either not notice or not care.
posted by Lemkin at 6:24 AM on February 3 [19 favorites]
(anyway, glad to see you back, y2k)
posted by Lemkin at 6:32 AM on February 3 [1 favorite]
posted by Lemkin at 6:32 AM on February 3 [1 favorite]
> That tarrif is largely symbolic.
The tariff is a cash grab. It's purely skimming extra cash from each international transaction to line the pockets of the usual suspects. The administration has stated their reasons, and those reasons are patent bullshit.
They would have been making plenty of noise about how the tariffs were going into a fund for developing domestic industry (or, I dunno, drug prevention in the case of the absolutely surreal and unmitigatable rationales given for the Canadian import tariffs) if otherwise.
posted by at by at 6:37 AM on February 3 [8 favorites]
The tariff is a cash grab. It's purely skimming extra cash from each international transaction to line the pockets of the usual suspects. The administration has stated their reasons, and those reasons are patent bullshit.
They would have been making plenty of noise about how the tariffs were going into a fund for developing domestic industry (or, I dunno, drug prevention in the case of the absolutely surreal and unmitigatable rationales given for the Canadian import tariffs) if otherwise.
posted by at by at 6:37 AM on February 3 [8 favorites]
I love the post title!
posted by michaelh at 6:41 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
posted by michaelh at 6:41 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists link says “Even the worst-case projection of 1,500 warheads by 2035 amounts to less than half of the current US nuclear stockpile”. But I believe it is less than a third.
Xi is, at worst, the fourth least stable controller of nuclear weapons today.
posted by Lemkin at 6:48 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
Xi is, at worst, the fourth least stable controller of nuclear weapons today.
posted by Lemkin at 6:48 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
(i forgot Netanyahu. Make that fifth.)
posted by Lemkin at 7:11 AM on February 3 [8 favorites]
posted by Lemkin at 7:11 AM on February 3 [8 favorites]
I don't think the US has much to worry about in the short term, but the leadership in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea has to be getting nervous.
posted by tommasz at 7:30 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 7:30 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
I spent the first decade of my life built around the idea that the United States was going to end up in nuclear holocaust war with the USSR/Russia. It involved massive military build ups on both sides. What didn't happen was a war between the US and USSR and people were pretty pumped up after Rocky IV and Red Dawn. The Cold War permeated popular culture in a way that the Pacific rivalry of the US and China have not come anywhere close to reaching.
Should we continually argue for peace and disarmament? YES. Are we going to end up in fisticuffs directly with China? Most likely no.
China has been watching Russia in Ukraine and had Russia just rolled over Ukraine, then perhaps it may have been an inspiration for invading Taiwan in the near future. That hasn't happened, so China has to now figure out how to incorporate Taiwan without finding itself in a slog with major economic penalties bearing down on it or at minimum, the economic consequences of its own should it partake military action against Taipei. It helps with the current political situation in the US, for sure, but China has an internal fragility going on, as it's demographics are starting to shrink and the economic competitive edge it possesses is slowly disappearing as its people demand higher wages and so on. Likewise, China is relying on more raw material from beyond its borders, and so on and so on.
posted by Atreides at 7:49 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
Should we continually argue for peace and disarmament? YES. Are we going to end up in fisticuffs directly with China? Most likely no.
China has been watching Russia in Ukraine and had Russia just rolled over Ukraine, then perhaps it may have been an inspiration for invading Taiwan in the near future. That hasn't happened, so China has to now figure out how to incorporate Taiwan without finding itself in a slog with major economic penalties bearing down on it or at minimum, the economic consequences of its own should it partake military action against Taipei. It helps with the current political situation in the US, for sure, but China has an internal fragility going on, as it's demographics are starting to shrink and the economic competitive edge it possesses is slowly disappearing as its people demand higher wages and so on. Likewise, China is relying on more raw material from beyond its borders, and so on and so on.
posted by Atreides at 7:49 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
China is relying on more raw material from beyond its borders
The stakes they’re putting down in Africa will be a very big deal in the coming decades.
posted by Lemkin at 8:06 AM on February 3 [7 favorites]
The stakes they’re putting down in Africa will be a very big deal in the coming decades.
posted by Lemkin at 8:06 AM on February 3 [7 favorites]
I believe everyone is missing the bigger point:
In what context is it necessary for Xi Jingping to wear an ID Badge?
Followup question: who is the poor schmuck who had to check his badge before letting him into the room?
posted by blevin at 8:40 AM on February 3 [6 favorites]
In what context is it necessary for Xi Jingping to wear an ID Badge?
Followup question: who is the poor schmuck who had to check his badge before letting him into the room?
posted by blevin at 8:40 AM on February 3 [6 favorites]
China has been watching Russia in Ukraine and had Russia just rolled over Ukraine, then perhaps it may have been an inspiration for invading Taiwan in the near future. That hasn't happened, so China has to now figure out how to incorporate Taiwan without finding itself in a slog with major economic penalties bearing down on it or at minimum, the economic consequences of its own should it partake military action against Taipei.
Sorry, do you think there's some way for China to annex Taiwan without war? I'm confused by what you're implying with "China has to figure out how to incorporate Taiwan."
posted by ch1x0r at 9:27 AM on February 3
Sorry, do you think there's some way for China to annex Taiwan without war? I'm confused by what you're implying with "China has to figure out how to incorporate Taiwan."
posted by ch1x0r at 9:27 AM on February 3
The world has just been divided up by three empires with the goal of preventing war between them.
That’s giving 1913.
posted by betweenthebars at 9:37 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
That’s giving 1913.
posted by betweenthebars at 9:37 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
just been divided up by three empires
That’s giving 1913.
The fact the Russia and China haven't really said shit about Gaza since Trump won reinforces my supposition that their Palestine support was theatre, intended to boost anti-Dem sentiment to force them out.
The fact the Russia has said or done very little about Syria other than give their buddy Assad safe harbor reinforces my supposition that Putin and Netanyahu are actually allies, and that the loss of a small portion of Syria (and likely more down the road) to TrumpUS-reinforced Israeli control is a small price for Putin to pay for freedom to do whatever he wants to Europe, just as tarriffs and the loss of trade with the US is a small price for Xi to pay for freedom to do whatever he wants to Asia.
So, make that 3 1/2 empires, then.
And, like Karl Rove said twenty years ago, here I am talking about it like a non player character, while they act.
posted by CynicalKnight at 10:28 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
That’s giving 1913.
The fact the Russia and China haven't really said shit about Gaza since Trump won reinforces my supposition that their Palestine support was theatre, intended to boost anti-Dem sentiment to force them out.
The fact the Russia has said or done very little about Syria other than give their buddy Assad safe harbor reinforces my supposition that Putin and Netanyahu are actually allies, and that the loss of a small portion of Syria (and likely more down the road) to TrumpUS-reinforced Israeli control is a small price for Putin to pay for freedom to do whatever he wants to Europe, just as tarriffs and the loss of trade with the US is a small price for Xi to pay for freedom to do whatever he wants to Asia.
So, make that 3 1/2 empires, then.
And, like Karl Rove said twenty years ago, here I am talking about it like a non player character, while they act.
posted by CynicalKnight at 10:28 AM on February 3 [4 favorites]
Sorry, do you think there's some way for China to annex Taiwan without war?
America doesn’t pick on countries its own size. (Let alone those that control trillions of dollars of our debt.) If China marches into Taiwan tomorrow, we will not fire a single shot.
posted by Lemkin at 10:34 AM on February 3
America doesn’t pick on countries its own size. (Let alone those that control trillions of dollars of our debt.) If China marches into Taiwan tomorrow, we will not fire a single shot.
posted by Lemkin at 10:34 AM on February 3
Sorry, do you think there's some way for China to annex Taiwan without war? I'm confused by what you're implying with "China has to figure out how to incorporate Taiwan."
I'm more referencing to incorporating Taiwan without the same experience Russia is having in Ukraine. I'm also just referring to the clear fact that since 1949, the People's Republic of China has considered Taiwan part of its territory, and this has not changed in the least. It is and remains a strategic goal of the CCP to win the last contested part of the civil war. It wants sovereign control over Taiwan, but a Ukraine situation is not tenable, so yes, it needs to continue to figure out how to best extend its dominion over Taiwan by other means. Could there be a military solution? Maybe, but my brain hurts from trying to figure out the logistics that would make it plausible against an island nation that has spent decades continually preparing for said attempt.
posted by Atreides at 10:58 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
I'm more referencing to incorporating Taiwan without the same experience Russia is having in Ukraine. I'm also just referring to the clear fact that since 1949, the People's Republic of China has considered Taiwan part of its territory, and this has not changed in the least. It is and remains a strategic goal of the CCP to win the last contested part of the civil war. It wants sovereign control over Taiwan, but a Ukraine situation is not tenable, so yes, it needs to continue to figure out how to best extend its dominion over Taiwan by other means. Could there be a military solution? Maybe, but my brain hurts from trying to figure out the logistics that would make it plausible against an island nation that has spent decades continually preparing for said attempt.
posted by Atreides at 10:58 AM on February 3 [3 favorites]
my brain hurts from trying to figure out the logistics that would make it plausible against an island nation that has spent decades continually preparing for said attempt
China’s navy is no joke. A total blockade until the Taiwanese are starved into submission seems well within their means.
posted by Lemkin at 11:21 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
China’s navy is no joke. A total blockade until the Taiwanese are starved into submission seems well within their means.
posted by Lemkin at 11:21 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
until the Taiwanese are starved into submission
Since it's unlikely Trump will be able to order the US Asian fleet to assist China in blockading Taiwan into surrender, Xi can only achieve that once the US fleet has departed the region.
It will be interesting to see how Trump will sell this to the hawks among his support base who do not yet realize he is an ally of Xi. Given how effectively doublethink has worked for them up to now, I suspect it will be easier than we think.
posted by CynicalKnight at 11:42 AM on February 3
Since it's unlikely Trump will be able to order the US Asian fleet to assist China in blockading Taiwan into surrender, Xi can only achieve that once the US fleet has departed the region.
It will be interesting to see how Trump will sell this to the hawks among his support base who do not yet realize he is an ally of Xi. Given how effectively doublethink has worked for them up to now, I suspect it will be easier than we think.
posted by CynicalKnight at 11:42 AM on February 3
America doesn’t pick on countries its own size. (Let alone those that control trillions of dollars of our debt.) If China marches into Taiwan tomorrow, we will not fire a single shot.
Maybe under the current admin, yeah, but this has for sure not been true with prior administrations. Neither the US or China wants war with the other for lots of good reasons. But at least until this admin, the US would not have just stood idly by if China tried to take Taiwan, starved via blockade or otherwise.
posted by ch1x0r at 11:43 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
Maybe under the current admin, yeah, but this has for sure not been true with prior administrations. Neither the US or China wants war with the other for lots of good reasons. But at least until this admin, the US would not have just stood idly by if China tried to take Taiwan, starved via blockade or otherwise.
posted by ch1x0r at 11:43 AM on February 3 [2 favorites]
r/MapPorn: countries capable of developing nuclear weapons
Federation of American Scientists:
Potential of
Individual Countries
Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Problems of Extension
Appendix 2
Russian Federation Foreign Intelligence Service
6 April 1995*
*Note: that was generated under Yeltsin's term. Putin came to power in 2000
Interesting discussions in the comments in both places. At least one person asserts Taiwan is nuclear capable but China would already be there if there was even a ghost of a hint that they were headed that way.
The case of Iran is an example of Donald J Truck Nuts's foreign policy during his first term. There was a treaty in place with cameras installed and inspections. He ended that in his first adminstration. Smooth move there Ex-Lax. If Iran went nuclear, Saudi Arabia would buy some from Pakistan. It's no wonder the Federation of American Scientists countdown clock is 89 seconds to midnight. There's a big potential graveyard out there to whistle by friends.
posted by y2karl at 12:30 PM on February 3 [3 favorites]
Federation of American Scientists:
Potential of
Individual Countries
Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Problems of Extension
Appendix 2
Russian Federation Foreign Intelligence Service
6 April 1995*
*Note: that was generated under Yeltsin's term. Putin came to power in 2000
Interesting discussions in the comments in both places. At least one person asserts Taiwan is nuclear capable but China would already be there if there was even a ghost of a hint that they were headed that way.
The case of Iran is an example of Donald J Truck Nuts's foreign policy during his first term. There was a treaty in place with cameras installed and inspections. He ended that in his first adminstration. Smooth move there Ex-Lax. If Iran went nuclear, Saudi Arabia would buy some from Pakistan. It's no wonder the Federation of American Scientists countdown clock is 89 seconds to midnight. There's a big potential graveyard out there to whistle by friends.
posted by y2karl at 12:30 PM on February 3 [3 favorites]
Okay, hi, hello, there are actually 23M people in Taiwan and by a very wide margin they don't actually have a ton of interest in being annexed by the PRC, thanks! Just like with Ukraine, you actually do have to factor in the part where there are people who are going to be defending their homeland regardless of whatever the US does. "The US isn't going to get involved" very much does not mean "no war is going to happen"!
posted by cultanthropologist at 12:39 PM on February 3 [11 favorites]
posted by cultanthropologist at 12:39 PM on February 3 [11 favorites]
RealLifeLore has a pretty good summary on the current state of China and Taiwan if anyone wants to get caught up. Watching American naval deployments over the next few months is going to be incredibly telling. I'm still in the "China will invade in 2027" camp. If not the main island, then the outliers.
posted by lock robster at 12:50 PM on February 3 [3 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 12:50 PM on February 3 [3 favorites]
"The US isn't going to get involved" very much does not mean "no war is going to happen"!
I should have been clearer. I meant only that the US will not take military action in response. What China will do with the Taiwanese once they knock over that hornet’s nest is their problem.
posted by Lemkin at 1:53 PM on February 3 [2 favorites]
I should have been clearer. I meant only that the US will not take military action in response. What China will do with the Taiwanese once they knock over that hornet’s nest is their problem.
posted by Lemkin at 1:53 PM on February 3 [2 favorites]
In what context is it necessary for Xi Jingping to wear an ID Badge?
In a Winnie the Pooh fan club meeting.
posted by doctornemo at 3:25 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
In a Winnie the Pooh fan club meeting.
posted by doctornemo at 3:25 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
I recently read Annie Jacobsen's Nuclear War: A Scenario, then listened to her read it. To me her voice sounded hoarse, probably because of hollering at people about this.
posted by doctornemo at 3:27 PM on February 3 [2 favorites]
posted by doctornemo at 3:27 PM on February 3 [2 favorites]
Tangentially, it looks like Denis Villeneuve will be adapting Nuclear War: A Scenario into a film. Shame Jacques Audiard didn't pick up the rights so that he could turn her book about Nuclear Armageddon into a musical 😅.
posted by nikoniko at 3:50 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
posted by nikoniko at 3:50 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
What China will do with the Taiwanese once they knock over that hornet’s nest is their problem.
The Uyghers come to mind...
Ignoring is condoning is aiding is contributing to genocide. What they do is the world's problem in my humble opinion.
posted by y2karl at 3:57 PM on February 3 [5 favorites]
The Uyghers come to mind...
Ignoring is condoning is aiding is contributing to genocide. What they do is the world's problem in my humble opinion.
posted by y2karl at 3:57 PM on February 3 [5 favorites]
I recently read Annie Jacobsen's Nuclear War: A Scenario, then listened to her read it. To me her voice sounded hoarse, probably because of hollering at people about this.
I've read it twice. It's plausible. (Though the President dying alone in a forest after his escape helicopter gets taken out by the EMP was a bit much.)
But the hole at the center is why North Korea would nuke us in the first place. Kim is evil, but he's not stupid. There is no conceivable advantage to him in doing it.
It's far likelier that religious extremists in Pakistan will nuke India, at which point things will become very interesting.
posted by Lemkin at 4:55 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
I've read it twice. It's plausible. (Though the President dying alone in a forest after his escape helicopter gets taken out by the EMP was a bit much.)
But the hole at the center is why North Korea would nuke us in the first place. Kim is evil, but he's not stupid. There is no conceivable advantage to him in doing it.
It's far likelier that religious extremists in Pakistan will nuke India, at which point things will become very interesting.
posted by Lemkin at 4:55 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
Tangentially, it looks like Denis Villeneuve will be adapting Nuclear War: A Scenario into a film
Life in Hell: The Day After, the Adult Version
If the Villeneuve adaptation isn't a big budget verson of Threads with NC-17 levels of gore, it will be a useless lie. And I don't see any studio giving him money for that.
posted by Lemkin at 5:02 PM on February 3
Life in Hell: The Day After, the Adult Version
If the Villeneuve adaptation isn't a big budget verson of Threads with NC-17 levels of gore, it will be a useless lie. And I don't see any studio giving him money for that.
posted by Lemkin at 5:02 PM on February 3
the President dying alone in a forest after his escape helicopter gets taken out by the EMP
I thought that was a nod to something very similar in Dawn's Early Light.
the hole at the center is why North Korea would nuke us in the first place
Yup, she dodges this.
posted by doctornemo at 5:26 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
I thought that was a nod to something very similar in Dawn's Early Light.
the hole at the center is why North Korea would nuke us in the first place
Yup, she dodges this.
posted by doctornemo at 5:26 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
> the hole at the center is why North Korea would nuke us in the first place
> Yup, she dodges this.
Most speculative fiction relies on a "gimmie" the author asks the reader to believe, to make the story work. Warp drive in Star Trek, raising dinosaurs from the dead in Jurassic Park, to name just two. This is her gimmie.
posted by lhauser at 7:45 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
> Yup, she dodges this.
Most speculative fiction relies on a "gimmie" the author asks the reader to believe, to make the story work. Warp drive in Star Trek, raising dinosaurs from the dead in Jurassic Park, to name just two. This is her gimmie.
posted by lhauser at 7:45 PM on February 3 [1 favorite]
RealLifeLore has a pretty good summary on the current state of China and Taiwan if anyone wants to get caught up. Watching American naval deployments over the next few months is going to be incredibly telling. I'm still in the "China will invade in 2027" camp. If not the main island, then the outliers.2027 as a deadline is made up to get more money from Congress. If drill down on the original remarks, ADM Davidson is saying the possibility exists by 2027, it is not a prediction.
The importance of semiconductors on this is entirely off base and there's zero evidence they're included in China's calculus. For Taiwan, it was about developing the economy to higher living standards - to call a "economic defense strategy" is at best an ex post facto rationalization. I only skimmed the video briefly but these points of error don't inspire confidence on it being well researched.
posted by ndr at 10:02 AM on February 4
The stakes they’re putting down in Africa will be a very big deal in the coming decades.
China’s imperial pitch is “We’ll give you money and not hector you about ‘ values’ like the West(US).” Which is fine if you’re an undemocratic kleptocracy but I suspect China will find their popularity waning amongst the people subjected to said kleptocracies in fairly short order. Sorta like how the US talks a big game about spreading democratic values but in reality you just had to not be a commie and you could pretty much get what you wanted. Kinda built up some resentments that we’re now paying for.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 6:29 PM on February 4
China’s imperial pitch is “We’ll give you money and not hector you about ‘ values’ like the West(US).” Which is fine if you’re an undemocratic kleptocracy but I suspect China will find their popularity waning amongst the people subjected to said kleptocracies in fairly short order. Sorta like how the US talks a big game about spreading democratic values but in reality you just had to not be a commie and you could pretty much get what you wanted. Kinda built up some resentments that we’re now paying for.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 6:29 PM on February 4
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