The movement will need more disruptive forms of pressure
March 28, 2025 8:59 AM   Subscribe

Social movements constrained Trump in his first term – more than people realize

When the sociologist Adam Safer examined thousands of cities and dozens of states, he found that a specific type of sanctuary law that activists supported – barring local jails and prisons from active cooperation with ICE – successfully reduced ICE arrests. A study by legal scholar David K. Hausman confirmed this finding....

In a surprising number of cases, organizers defeated polluters through a combination of litigation, civil disobedience and other protests, and by pressuring banks, insurers and big investors...

workers’ direct action on the job won meaningful victories. For example, educators across the country organized dozens of major strikes for better pay, more school funding and even against ICE. Workers in hotels, supermarkets and other private-sector industries also walked out. Ultimately, more U.S. workers went on strike in 2018 than in any year since 1986...
posted by latkes (22 comments total) 39 users marked this as a favorite
 
BLM and then the pandemic. Grimly.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:08 AM on March 28


I cover this stuff for a living and I was baffled at how little protest there was outside the RNC last year. There was one march around 500-1000 people on the first day, and then after that I couldn't find more than a few single people or small groups randomly around the perimeter. I had a friend who was covering the event for Reuters who was assigned to protest coverage beforehand. I saw him inside the arena on the third day and he said he'd been reassigned because he and the others on his team outside the convention couldn't find any protests to cover.

Not sure how related, but this seems as good a place as any: the right has been incredibly successful in courting college students; from what I've seen, campus protests are nothing like what they were 5 or 10 years ago. Last year I covered Charlie Kirk's visit to the UW campus in Seattle, and was amazed at two things: the size of the crowd there who seemed to be on his side, and the almost complete lack of opposition, despite the ongoing Palestine encampment in a nearby section of the campus. Eventually there was a small standoff between groups, but it was mostly to prevent people leaving Kirk's speech from walking through the encampment.

If I had to characterize the visit, I would say Kirk was welcomed to the campus.

In 2017, on the other hand, Milo Yiannopolous came to the campus and huge crowds showed up to try to stop the event and in the clashes between supporters and the opposition, a person was shot. (don't get me wrong...I'm glad there hasn't been as much violence at protests as in 2016-2020).

The difference in the last 5-7 years is stark.

I've also really been struck by the change in demographics at recent protests in the past couple of years (mostly around the Pacific Northwest). POC still tend to be on the younger side at protests, white people have skewed older. And protests have been pretty segregated. The pro-Palestine protests have mostly been young people of color, but other recent protests (against Trump, against Tesla/Musk, against federal cuts, etc.) have skewed older toward millenials, gen x, and beyond. A recent protest against ICE and immigration crackdowns in Olympia was probably 50/50 white and people of color, and the age was split older for white people and younger for people of color. For white people, it feels like the same people who've been rallying for the last 20 years, but the younger generation hasn't filled in the ranks behind them the way they used to.
posted by msbrauer at 9:42 AM on March 28 [25 favorites]


Charlie Kirk/Ben Shabibo/Matt Walsh/etc are less relevant than Rogan/Adin Ross/Theo Von/etc and that does not bode well.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:14 AM on March 28 [3 favorites]


Mod note: UsPolitics tag added
posted by loup (staff) at 10:30 AM on March 28 [3 favorites]


less relevant than Rogan/Adin Ross/Theo Von/etc and that does not bode well.

if you want to take Rogan down, or at least diminish the guy, don't take on his politics. He's too befuddled there to even know what he's saying let alone what a critique may be getting at. Go after his comedy, his absolute failure in that regard. It's his first love and he sucks at it and ...

"Burn The Boats" is a Funeral for Joe Rogan's Comedy Career
posted by philip-random at 10:32 AM on March 28 [6 favorites]


msbrauer, why were you surprised by the 2024 RNC?

Who would the audience have been for 2024 RNC protest actions? Downtown Milwaukee was closed to an extent that there was nowhere to have a protest with a media presence. All the media were inside the security cordon with a huge buffer. Outside the cordon, downtown residents had noped out. Nobody was coming to downtown businesses. The schedule march had maybe a few dozen onlookers over its whole route. There were more cops than anything else.

And inside the security cordon it was dead. Tents for pro-Trump events were empty. Businesses were empty. Heavily-armed, out-or-town cops were everywhere and had already killed a Milwaukee resident.

What was there to do? No one would have seen a banner drop before you were arrested, or worse, shot. Short of some very high-stakes infiltration of the convention center, I can’t imagine anyone getting any effective messaging out of a protest at the 2024 RNC.

Milwaukee had effective 2024 protests. The RNC was not the venue and not worth it.
posted by Headfullofair at 10:39 AM on March 28 [17 favorites]


it feels like the same people who've been rallying for the last 20 years, but the younger generation hasn't filled in the ranks behind them the way they used to

The American establishment, especially the Democrats, but even moreso the media, have been profoundly successful at rendering protest from the left ineffective. Why would anyone get involved in a useless effort?

Regarding the right recruiting youths, the issue again and again is that they have successfully improved their ability to create viral content and/or manipulated algorithms. Young people live online.

Overall, these things converge around success breeding success and failure breeding failure. American culture has, over the last decade or two, swung decisively in favor of a calculus of power, as opposed to one of values. In general, what is right and wrong has less relevance in our current moment than it has at any time in my memory, and probably going back to 1950 or so. Fewer people care about what is right and wrong because in general we can see that it will not affect the outcome.

This is not all the Democrats' fault - not even remotely. However, the fact that they have steadfastly refused to try and win on any issue they cannot win by entirely self-imposed rules of decorum that are decades out of date, and likewise refuse to even engage with real concerns of young people* has been a very significant factor.

*Climate Justice getting dissed by Feinstein was a bellweather here. When a Senator can be mean to grade school kids on the front page and not get any kind of blowback, things are bad.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 11:00 AM on March 28 [28 favorites]


Not sure how related, but this seems as good a place as any: the right has been incredibly successful in courting college students; from what I've seen, campus protests are nothing like what they were 5 or 10 years ago.

A project in which they’ve been aided by a trend toward accelerationism and/or fatalism within what’s left of the campus left.

If you believe the US is already doomed and not worth preserving anyway, why wouldn’t you love what Trump is doing?
posted by non canadian guy at 11:02 AM on March 28 [2 favorites]


This is why I was so disappointed by lack of turnout in blue states this election. I don't think this would be playing out the same way at all if Trump had lost the popular vote again.
posted by Garm at 11:09 AM on March 28 [2 favorites]


Related
posted by rhymedirective at 11:14 AM on March 28 [1 favorite]


Regarding the right recruiting youths, the issue again and again is that they have successfully improved their ability to create viral content and/or manipulated algorithms. Young people live online.

Also they win the simplicity of the message. It's not your fault, it's somebody else's, you're owned something and other having things is wrong. And since some things aren't tip top in our society, there are multiple hooks for this message to sink in.

It completely eschews empathy, compassion, responsibility, solidarity.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:20 AM on March 28 [13 favorites]


I do wonder how much the manosphere/Andrew Tate/incel stuff has impacted also. Online misogyny via social media is having a huge surge in preteen and young teen boys; in older teens/early 20s I can imagine it sending a lot of them straight to the techfascist right ala Musk, and if you despise women of course you're going to vote for Trump etc.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:41 AM on March 28 [5 favorites]


The American establishment, especially the Democrats, but even moreso the media, have been profoundly successful at rendering protest from the left ineffective.

A WHOLE lot of news organizations have been bought by billionaires, with more or less explicit ideological alterations. Newsweek, LA Times, WaPost, CNN; you have to be paying attention two levels deep to realize that what maybe used to be a news source that needed your business is now being paid for something else.
posted by clew at 12:03 PM on March 28 [19 favorites]


msbrauer, why were you surprised by the 2024 RNC?

Just comparing it to what I saw at the 2016 RNC and DNC. I wasn't at the 2024 DNC, but it had substantial and sustained protests from the coverage I saw. I've also seen protests outside of Trump rallies and related events (2017 inauguration, indictment in NYC, etc.) since I started covering him in 2015. All that is what made me surprised to see so little opposition to the RNC.

Who would the audience have been for 2024 RNC protest actions? Downtown Milwaukee was closed to an extent that there was nowhere to have a protest with a media presence.

It was the absolute epicenter of world politics that week. I don't know the exact number of credentialed journalists inside the arena, but I think it's usually at least 1000 from all over the world, and many more show up to cover events outside the convention itself. At the 2024 RNC, it took a couple days to hand out all the credentials in multiple hotel ballrooms.

All that is to say, the eyes of the world were looking at Milwaukee, and if protests happened anywhere in the city they would have attracted coverage. In the past, I've seen a lot of different movements attempt to gain attention from both media and attendees outside the national political conventions. I was in group chats of journalists where people were asking if there was anything going on outside the arena or elsewhere in the city and no one I knew could find anything.

I previously mentioned a Reuters staffer specifically assigned to cover protests wherever they happened in Milwaukee, and I know other photographers and videographers from national and international media who were there specifically to cover any protests and who were reassigned when it was clear there wasn't anything happening. From my perspective (as a freelancer, well-connected to the political press but not privy to most newsroom conversations) media expected to see some demonstrations and were ready to cover them, but there wasn't anything to cover. And just a little deeper inside baseball: by about 8pm on day 2 of a convention, photographers are especially eager to find anything to photograph that isn't a speaker at a podium or delegates in wacky outfits on the convention floor.

--

I don't mean to make a judgement about the tactics of any movement (maybe as you say there were more effective places and times for protest), but rather am expressing my surprise that there was so little opposition compared to my experiences at those types of events in the last decade or so.

The article in this FPP says that social movements had effect 2016-2020, and I've been surprised at how these sorts of social movements have changed in the past couple of years. There's been an increase in the past couple months, but they're smaller and different, as I'd mentioned in my previous comment. There've been a few exceptions like the campus protests, but even those feel different from campus protests 5 or so years ago, as I mentioned. And I will say the Tufts protest yesterday, from what I can see looking from afar at my old coverage area, feels more like what I expected to see around the RNC and leading up to last year's election.
posted by msbrauer at 1:05 PM on March 28 [7 favorites]


The linked article is imho useful because it points to the conditions and tactics where a small organized group can make an impact. We should all be trying to make an impact right now.
posted by latkes at 2:30 PM on March 28 [9 favorites]


I think one of the biggest issues at play in what msbrauer is talking about is simply that the people that were protesting en masse 2016-2020 simply got tired. The first Trump term was exhausting and then you got the pandemic, then George Floyd and the protests that followed, and then January 6. People finally got a lull in the craziness and they weren’t ready to jump back in. Being scared and angry all the time is fucking exhausting. The Trump 2024 campaign events were very low energy and not well attended compared to 2016 and 2020. Kamala Harris’ campaign was a hell of an operation, and had huge, enthusiastic and joyful crowds. Harris’ ground game was from all reports miles ahead of Trump. And yet, Trump won, with millions less people voting than in the previous election. People were just tired of being switched on to high alert at all times, and the same urgency wasn’t there that we saw in 2020. (Side note: I wonder how many people are studying this with an eye towards figuring out what campaigning should look like going forward, because the Harris campaign did the things you’re supposed to do as far as the nuts and bolts of getting voters out there.) After the election, there was a feeling of “well, now what do we do?” I felt like I was seeing a vibe of helplessness, a vibe of people not wanting to have to do 2017-2020 all over again. People have in many cases caught their second wind - there are a LOT of protests happening, even if we’re not seeing the big ones like the Women’s March, there are a lot of protests and a lot of people going to them. Also, keep in mind that we haven’t had our first big protest triggering event yet. The biggest in his first term was George Floyd, but there were also things like Charlottesville. It’s almost inevitable that something is going to happen that people can’t ignore (my bet is on them screwing up the SSA so badly that checks don’t go out to a lot of people. If that happens, it is not going to be something that people just quietly accept, and may crash the economy hard, harder than 2008.) When we get that first big event, we’re going to get a real pulse on just what level of pissed off the general public is at.
posted by azpenguin at 9:08 PM on March 29 [5 favorites]


People should really read TFA, because it discusses mass protests vs. other forms of opposition, and concludes:
While big marches can raise public consciousness and help activists connect, by themselves they will not block Trump and Musk. For that, the movement will need more disruptive forms of pressure. Building the capacity for that disruption will require sustained organizing in workplaces and communities.
This seems like a no-brainer, but I'd go further and speculate that the US left may need to import strategies and tactics from places with more militant political cultures. The American standard protest, generally well-behaved people standing in the street with signs and occasional chanting, depends in large part on a free press to cover them and an electorate who can be shamed into reconsidering their positions. Neither of those should be taken on premise in the US under Trump. The media is billionaire-controlled, and Trump's supporters wear their lack of shame, along with empathy in general, as a mark of pride. Appealing to the better angels of their nature is likely to be a very long wait.

In contrast, well-targeted acts of mild violence seem spectacularly more effective on a results-for-effort-invested metric. I mean: how many Tesla dealerships have actually been vandalized to date? I'd be stunned if it's a dozen, by more than a few tens of people. And yet it has absolutely enraged Trump & Co, driving them into spittle-flecked FNC interviews where they've made insane comparisons to terrorism and hate crimes that only highlight their misplaced priorities (and distract from their ability to do more serious harm).

A few cans of paint or liters of gasoline in a Tesla dealership's parking lot likely has the same effect as a 10,000-person mass demonstration, and takes a lot less coordination. It does require that the smaller number of people involved have much more tolerance to risk, and a better grasp of operational security.

While billionaires may be difficult to shame into modifying their behavior, they are by definition very soft targets for economic coercion. Musk will cease to be a billionaire if Tesla's share price can be depressed far enough (the commonly-cited number is around $140/share when he gets margin called and the ruination begins), while Trump himself operates a worldwide golf-course and hotel empire that seems closer to his heart than his actual children. Similar vulnerabilities exist for almost all of the gaping assholes that fill the Cabinet and the donor class pulling the strings of the Republican party.

Even better, some of these beasts' soft underbellies exist in jurisdictions likely to be more sympathetic to direct action than the US. Some basic Googling suggests that it's much preferable to be arrested for throwing paint on a parked car in Scotland than in Florida, for instance. (Except for things involving firearms, which the UK takes a notably dim view on, I'd wager that's likely to be generally true.)

The problem—well, one problem, anyway—is that the left, and left-leaning spaces generally, have a problem talking about anything that might be illegal, in a way that right-wing spaces do not. When you can discuss BTK-style murder plans for sitting members of Congress on Voat, but you can't advocate for slashing Tesla tires in most left-leaning spaces, there's a self-imposed disadvantage in play. Hopefully that attitude is fading, as more people realize that the law is not created for their advantage or even their protection.
posted by Kadin2048 at 9:26 AM on March 30 [6 favorites]


Demonstrations have another kind of value, apart from making things happen or making people change their minds: they boost the morale of the demonstrators and also the more timid or less mobile people who don't participate. They provide evidence that the whole world has not gone mad, you are not an isolated crank, lots of people feel the same way you do, what you see emphasized in the media and on the internet is not the whole story.
posted by JonJacky at 9:58 AM on March 30 [6 favorites]


The problem—well, one problem, anyway—is that the left, and left-leaning spaces generally, have a problem talking about anything that might be illegal, in a way that right-wing spaces do not.

I assure you, this is a problem that actual leftist spaces do not have. Liberal spaces, however, have it in spades.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:22 PM on March 30


don't talk about shit on the Internet, dummies
posted by Sperry Topsider at 7:37 PM on March 30


i guess that makes the interneT a liberal space
posted by Reverend John at 5:45 AM on March 31




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