Liberating Americans from their wallets
April 3, 2025 9:10 AM Subscribe
After months of bluster, spin, and head fakes, President Trump finally committed to punishing global tariffs during a high-profile "Liberation Day" event at the White House yesterday. The policy invokes emergency authority to impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, a 25% fee on imported cars, and dubious "reciprocal tariffs" on everywhere from China and the EU to key strategic suppliers to remote uninhabited penguin reserves (not Russia, though 🤔). Trump’s tariff obsession dates back decades and cites William McKinley’s Gilded Age protectionist policies as an inspiration. Economists warn these measures will disrupt global trade, spike inflation, and destabilize the dollar’s reserve currency status. Markets fell sharply this morning, as DOGE-driven cuts are projected to cause over 275,000 layoffs. Meanwhile, nationwide "Hands Off!" protests against executive overreach are planned for this Saturday, April 5th.
The Economist: Ruination Day: Donald Trump announced the biggest break in America’s trade policy in over a century—and committed the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era.
Bloomberg: The US stock market is down almost 10% since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, marking the worst 10-week start under a new president since George W. Bush in 2001 during the height of the dot-com selloff
Reuters: South Korea, China, Japan agree to promote regional trade as Trump tariffs loom
Onion owner Ben Collins:
"What a perfect day for Newsmax to ring the opening bell on the stock exchange."
WSJ: Senators Move to Rein In Trump’s Power on Tariffs
The Economist: Ruination Day: Donald Trump announced the biggest break in America’s trade policy in over a century—and committed the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era.
Bloomberg: The US stock market is down almost 10% since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, marking the worst 10-week start under a new president since George W. Bush in 2001 during the height of the dot-com selloff
Reuters: South Korea, China, Japan agree to promote regional trade as Trump tariffs loom
Onion owner Ben Collins:
I'm watching CNBC. These anchors are so angry. They really didn't believe he'd do it. They're actually just now, 10 years into this shit, realizing he's a maniac hellbent on revenge and there's no grand plan for the markets. Better late than never but holy shit.The Onion: FBI Uncovers Al-Qaeda Plot To Just Sit Back And Enjoy Collapse Of United States
It's great TV watching these CNBC analysts realize there is no "theory" on TV in real time and they can't even invent one. One just said "They're burning down the house to cook a steak." There's a phone ringing off the hook in the background no one's picking up. It's chaos, I recommend it.
"What a perfect day for Newsmax to ring the opening bell on the stock exchange."
WSJ: Senators Move to Rein In Trump’s Power on Tariffs
Under the Cantwell–Grassley Trade Review Act of 2025, any tariffs imposed by the president would expire after 60 days unless Congress voted to approve them. Congress also would have the power to terminate tariffs at any time by voting to pass a resolution of disapproval. The president also would be required to notify Congress within 48 hours of putting in place or raising any tariffs.
Everything this team is doing makes sense if you imagine that they do not have the best interests of the USA at heart. And by "they" I mean both Trump and the politicians on both sides that haven't done enough to stop him since January 6, 2001.
Dropping the price of oil to $50 a barrel? That decimates the US petroleum industry...which in turn is good for Saudi Arabia's (a country that Trump is figuratively and literally indebted to).
Crashing the global economy? It is going to be great for oligarchs, and advances Mencius Moldbug's (aka Curtis Yarvin) desire to have the country broken up into oligarchic fiefdoms and bring back slavery. Curtis Yarvin is the thinker whose ideals Vance, Musk and Thiel are working to put into place.
Destroying the university system? See above. Curtis Yarvin has said the destruction of "The Cathedral" (universities and the free press) is necessary for "Dark Enlightenment" (replacement of democracy with a techno-feudal system).
Fire all government workers? That is part of Curtis Yarvin's strategy too.
I could go on. I am tired of journalists calling this all "illogical" and "chaotic." They are being willfully ignorant.
posted by rednikki at 9:25 AM on April 3 [112 favorites]
Dropping the price of oil to $50 a barrel? That decimates the US petroleum industry...which in turn is good for Saudi Arabia's (a country that Trump is figuratively and literally indebted to).
Crashing the global economy? It is going to be great for oligarchs, and advances Mencius Moldbug's (aka Curtis Yarvin) desire to have the country broken up into oligarchic fiefdoms and bring back slavery. Curtis Yarvin is the thinker whose ideals Vance, Musk and Thiel are working to put into place.
Destroying the university system? See above. Curtis Yarvin has said the destruction of "The Cathedral" (universities and the free press) is necessary for "Dark Enlightenment" (replacement of democracy with a techno-feudal system).
Fire all government workers? That is part of Curtis Yarvin's strategy too.
I could go on. I am tired of journalists calling this all "illogical" and "chaotic." They are being willfully ignorant.
posted by rednikki at 9:25 AM on April 3 [112 favorites]
EmpressCallipygos, I sympathize...I'm missing the protests because I am working my town's election this weekend. (And we are losing election workers to the protests, which is going to make the day tough!)
posted by rednikki at 9:26 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
posted by rednikki at 9:26 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
There's a post going around saying that some staffer just asked ChatGPT to make up the tariff rates.
I think it's even more damning when an actual expert explains that it's in fact worse, because they used a dumb formula, which failed to take into account any of the facts at hand -- like the " British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT). The main island there is Diego Garcia. The *only* thing on Diego Garcia is a military base jointly operated by the US and UK." Why????
posted by wenestvedt at 9:27 AM on April 3 [14 favorites]
I think it's even more damning when an actual expert explains that it's in fact worse, because they used a dumb formula, which failed to take into account any of the facts at hand -- like the " British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT). The main island there is Diego Garcia. The *only* thing on Diego Garcia is a military base jointly operated by the US and UK." Why????
posted by wenestvedt at 9:27 AM on April 3 [14 favorites]
Ed Burmila on bsky: "I appreciate all of these detailed analysis of what’s wrong with the policy, but the crucial thing to keep in mind here is that Donald Trump sincerely, literally does not understand what a tariff is and when that is your starting point, nothing beyond it really matters."
posted by mittens at 9:27 AM on April 3 [76 favorites]
posted by mittens at 9:27 AM on April 3 [76 favorites]
Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2
posted by robbyrobs at 9:28 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 9:28 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Given the number of leaders in any feudal-esque setup, all I can is the people who are advocating run at the height of arrogance because I can see no reason to push for such a thing, except the assumption that you'll be one of the leaders.
posted by drewbage1847 at 9:30 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by drewbage1847 at 9:30 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
least we all forget that he (Trump) stated that "there is going to be pain"
posted by robbyrobs at 9:31 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 9:31 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut makes the case that this is about consolidating power, trying to force companies, industries, and countries to come begging hat in hand to Trump personally to get exceptions, carveouts, and reductions.
posted by soundguy99 at 9:31 AM on April 3 [93 favorites]
posted by soundguy99 at 9:31 AM on April 3 [93 favorites]
The thing about having a policy boner for the McKinley presidency is that his era of relative prosperity was tied at least as much to his open policies toward immigration as the fucking tariffs.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:31 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:31 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
I really wish people would stop getting their yuks out of pretending that we’re on the usual side of Hanlon’s razor here. This is sabotage.
Personally, I think the oligarchs are steering into the crash too hard. If things collapse sufficiently nobody is going to care what number is attached to your name in some computer nobody can access because there’s no power anymore.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 9:32 AM on April 3 [22 favorites]
Personally, I think the oligarchs are steering into the crash too hard. If things collapse sufficiently nobody is going to care what number is attached to your name in some computer nobody can access because there’s no power anymore.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 9:32 AM on April 3 [22 favorites]
From what I saw they went off Census Bureau data, which is why you get BIOT and the penguin island broken out specifically. And with this data they took the country's deficit divided by imports to get the effective tariff rate. As surgical as a carpet bomb.
posted by msbutah at 9:32 AM on April 3 [9 favorites]
posted by msbutah at 9:32 AM on April 3 [9 favorites]
I'm starting to think they want a recession. Economic hardship is historically favourable to opportunistic fascists.
posted by Acey at 9:34 AM on April 3 [32 favorites]
posted by Acey at 9:34 AM on April 3 [32 favorites]
I know it's not new to folks here, but I just cannot believe how astoundingly stupid this administration is. Like, not even Econ 101 applies here; it's just Econ One-oh-Dumb.
posted by Kitteh at 9:34 AM on April 3 [13 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 9:34 AM on April 3 [13 favorites]
Tariffs are unpopular, among all income groups, all age groups, all ethnic groups. There's only one group that (as of a month ago) supported them: 80 percent of people who say they voted for Trump in 2024 approved of his tariff policies. The question is how many of those people will desert him when they actually face the economic consequences, and how many will believe that it's Biden's fault, that the economy is actually doing fine and the media are lying, or that short term pain will lead to an economic utopia.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:35 AM on April 3 [14 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:35 AM on April 3 [14 favorites]
What about bringing manufacturing etc back to the USA? When will that happen??
posted by robbyrobs at 9:35 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
posted by robbyrobs at 9:35 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
The question is how many of those people will desert him when they actually face the economic consequences, and how many will believe that it's Biden's fault, that the economy is actually doing fine and the media are lying, or that short term pain will lead to an economic utopia.
TFG is preparing them to expect pain (and will keep moving the goalposts on the timeline: months > years). Like the best conmen, the payoff is always 'just around the corner', you just have to hang on.
posted by mazola at 9:37 AM on April 3 [22 favorites]
TFG is preparing them to expect pain (and will keep moving the goalposts on the timeline: months > years). Like the best conmen, the payoff is always 'just around the corner', you just have to hang on.
posted by mazola at 9:37 AM on April 3 [22 favorites]
@neutral.zone:
Tariffs make perfect sense with the right framing.posted by gwint at 9:39 AM on April 3 [18 favorites]
They’re protection rackets with a flag on top.
Too many flapping talking heads in the media are focusing their incredulity about the incompetence but this isn't incompetence.
Blanket tariffs are the single most regressive tax we can come up with. Nearly half of the typical America's wage goes on imported goods. It's basically a 12% income tax hike for anyone earning less than 200 grand.
Rich people? They don't spend their whole wages, and nowhere near as much as a percentage of their income and wealth on imported goods. They want this and they want income tax and capital gains tax dismantled so they can entrench themselves further. It's an attempt to make a wholesale shift in the way the US government is funded that basically takes no Senate vote to enact and, thanks to the filibuster staying intact, 60 votes to fix.
Crash the economy through stagflation and nobody can afford to buy anything. But there will be way more ways to rent and lease things. You won't own things. You'll be a permanent renter and be forced to work until you die. No more financial security except for the top 2%.
Oligarchs are going for the whole ball game.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:39 AM on April 3 [78 favorites]
Blanket tariffs are the single most regressive tax we can come up with. Nearly half of the typical America's wage goes on imported goods. It's basically a 12% income tax hike for anyone earning less than 200 grand.
Rich people? They don't spend their whole wages, and nowhere near as much as a percentage of their income and wealth on imported goods. They want this and they want income tax and capital gains tax dismantled so they can entrench themselves further. It's an attempt to make a wholesale shift in the way the US government is funded that basically takes no Senate vote to enact and, thanks to the filibuster staying intact, 60 votes to fix.
Crash the economy through stagflation and nobody can afford to buy anything. But there will be way more ways to rent and lease things. You won't own things. You'll be a permanent renter and be forced to work until you die. No more financial security except for the top 2%.
Oligarchs are going for the whole ball game.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:39 AM on April 3 [78 favorites]
Trump: when I want facts, I'll peel your lips out of my zipper. And ignore you anyway while I ask Elon.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 9:41 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 9:41 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
how many of those people will desert him when they actually face the economic consequences
Only statistical outliers. This is the phenomenon of Escalation of Commitment playing out in real time.
But we've seen it before, when people literally asphyxiating were fighting nurses, denying they even had COVID at all, and they and their families threatening health care workers over horse de-wormer.
Their worldview and personal ego investment is so thoroughly and hermetically sealed, they will go down literally to immiseration and death and swear the golden era is almost upon us.
posted by tclark at 9:43 AM on April 3 [55 favorites]
Only statistical outliers. This is the phenomenon of Escalation of Commitment playing out in real time.
But we've seen it before, when people literally asphyxiating were fighting nurses, denying they even had COVID at all, and they and their families threatening health care workers over horse de-wormer.
Their worldview and personal ego investment is so thoroughly and hermetically sealed, they will go down literally to immiseration and death and swear the golden era is almost upon us.
posted by tclark at 9:43 AM on April 3 [55 favorites]
"Give me the facts and I will twist them to fit my argument"
Winston Churchill
posted by robbyrobs at 9:44 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Winston Churchill
posted by robbyrobs at 9:44 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
What about bringing manufacturing etc back to the USA? When will that happen??
Just as soon as war breaks out with the Kaiser and Emperor of Austria-Hungary, and the Entente powers begin buying up war materiel at unprecedented levels.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 9:44 AM on April 3 [16 favorites]
Just as soon as war breaks out with the Kaiser and Emperor of Austria-Hungary, and the Entente powers begin buying up war materiel at unprecedented levels.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 9:44 AM on April 3 [16 favorites]
Basically, if you're an American just struggling to get by, the government has told you you will not be able to afford anything and you like it because it is for the good of the country.
posted by Kitteh at 9:46 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 9:46 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
I asked the mods to put my earlier thread out of its misery, as it had a 600% Links Trade Deficit with this one, so reciprocal measures were clearly needed. Still, I was proud of the post title. Plus it had a pull quote that couldn't be beat (and which I'll use as an excuse to repost it all here), from Ian Dunt in The i Paper (archive):
This might be the single stupidest thing any of us will ever see. It is stupid in every way: presentationally, intellectually, politically, methodologically, morally and of course economically. The word stupid doesn’t really suffice for the full level of idiocy we’ve now reached. It’s as if we’ve attained a new state of human mindlessness, a kind of species milestone.
And then there was Alan Beattie in the Financial Times (archive):
There can be no logic-washing of Donald Trump’s tariffs. This isn’t part of a carefully-designed industrial policy or a cunning strategy to induce compliance among trading partners or a choreographed appearance of chaos to scare other governments into obedience. It’s wildly destructive stupidity, and the generations of American, and particularly Republican politicians, who allowed things to slide to this point are collectively to blame.
See also: two covers of the Economist, 22 weeks apart. And two pieces from the Guardian.
Seriously, read Dunt's account of how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. It's utterly insane.
As a (probably intentional) side effect, it punishes poor countries the most: the ones whose own people can't afford to buy US-manufactured goods, but who export raw materials to the US and/or have become sites of offshore tech manufacturing. Hence the 46% tariff on Vietnam. If you're in the US, hope you've set aside some extra bucks for the Switch 2.
(I'm not gloating, I feel awful for you guys for the inflation you're about to see, but it's not like the entire rest of the world isn't about to be hammered by this as well. Even uninhabited sub-Antarctic islands.)
posted by rory at 9:50 AM on April 3 [43 favorites]
This might be the single stupidest thing any of us will ever see. It is stupid in every way: presentationally, intellectually, politically, methodologically, morally and of course economically. The word stupid doesn’t really suffice for the full level of idiocy we’ve now reached. It’s as if we’ve attained a new state of human mindlessness, a kind of species milestone.
And then there was Alan Beattie in the Financial Times (archive):
There can be no logic-washing of Donald Trump’s tariffs. This isn’t part of a carefully-designed industrial policy or a cunning strategy to induce compliance among trading partners or a choreographed appearance of chaos to scare other governments into obedience. It’s wildly destructive stupidity, and the generations of American, and particularly Republican politicians, who allowed things to slide to this point are collectively to blame.
See also: two covers of the Economist, 22 weeks apart. And two pieces from the Guardian.
Seriously, read Dunt's account of how they calculated the "reciprocal" tariffs. It's utterly insane.
As a (probably intentional) side effect, it punishes poor countries the most: the ones whose own people can't afford to buy US-manufactured goods, but who export raw materials to the US and/or have become sites of offshore tech manufacturing. Hence the 46% tariff on Vietnam. If you're in the US, hope you've set aside some extra bucks for the Switch 2.
(I'm not gloating, I feel awful for you guys for the inflation you're about to see, but it's not like the entire rest of the world isn't about to be hammered by this as well. Even uninhabited sub-Antarctic islands.)
posted by rory at 9:50 AM on April 3 [43 favorites]
regarding that manufacturing coming back to the USA HUGE LAYOFFS
posted by robbyrobs at 9:54 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 9:54 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
I feel like Charleton Heston at the end of Planet of the Apes. You maniacs!
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:55 AM on April 3 [9 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:55 AM on April 3 [9 favorites]
This proves (again) that "economic anxiety" is a crock of shit.
When Trump voters say "economic anxiety" they don't mean economic anxiety. They mean punching down on brown and queer people.
posted by splitpeasoup at 9:59 AM on April 3 [38 favorites]
When Trump voters say "economic anxiety" they don't mean economic anxiety. They mean punching down on brown and queer people.
posted by splitpeasoup at 9:59 AM on April 3 [38 favorites]
Meanwhile, nationwide "Hands Off!" protests against executive overreach are planned for this Saturday, April 5th.
Never have I been so pleased with the results of the Make America Kittens Again browser extension.
posted by D.Billy at 9:59 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Never have I been so pleased with the results of the Make America Kittens Again browser extension.
posted by D.Billy at 9:59 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Given the direct line of descent from Gamergate to the alt-right to MAGA to arms-outstretched fascism, there's some poetic justice, at least, that games consoles are about to be jacked up in price in the US by the tariffs on Vietnam, China and Taiwan. If only tariffs could be personally directed towards the individuals who voted for them.
posted by rory at 10:09 AM on April 3 [24 favorites]
posted by rory at 10:09 AM on April 3 [24 favorites]
Brazil used to have a 100% import tax on many goods until someone worked out that 100% added to zero imports is still zero. I predict a lot of Americans will start taking long distance trips just to smuggle back a few high value goods.
posted by Lanark at 10:10 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
posted by Lanark at 10:10 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
An interesting take from Yanis Varoufakis: Will Liberation Day transform the world? The Nixon Shock set a radical precedent
posted by chavenet at 10:13 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 10:13 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
Metafilter: 600% Links Trade Deficit
posted by joannemerriam at 10:19 AM on April 3 [11 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 10:19 AM on April 3 [11 favorites]
Under the Cantwell–Grassley Trade Review Act of 2025
The horse is out of the barn, quick! Close the barn door.
Snarky but...any bill that reigns in Trump and does not have a Veto-proof majority in both Houses is just laughable.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 10:21 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
The horse is out of the barn, quick! Close the barn door.
Snarky but...any bill that reigns in Trump and does not have a Veto-proof majority in both Houses is just laughable.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 10:21 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
NYT:
Stellantis, which owns Jeep, Ram, Dodge, and Chrysler, said it was temporarily halting production at a plant in Mexico and another in Canada in response to the tariffs. A factory in Windsor, Ontario, that makes the Chrysler Pacifica minivan will shut down for two weeks and one that makes Jeeps in Toluca, Mexico will be idled on April 7 for the rest of the month.posted by gwint at 10:22 AM on April 3 [24 favorites]
In a sign of how integrated North American auto production has become, Stellantis said that the production stoppages in Canada and Mexico would force it to layoff of about 900 workers in Indiana and Michigan.
It's kind of funny that I work at a company that has been getting slammed by tariffs, because we make electronic thingies that come from China, and it never made any sense to make them anywhere else. There are factories that could do the same thing (a little worse for a little more money) in India, but even with the barrage of anti-China tariffs, it never made sense to change the supply chain during the first Trump term. During the second term, there has been a lot more interest -- to the point where we were finally looking at Vietnamese manufacturers -- and, uh, lol. lmao.
posted by grandiloquiet at 10:33 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
posted by grandiloquiet at 10:33 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
For those not keeping track: It's been less than three full months since the inauguration. The metaphorical Titanic hasn't even hit the iceberg yet.
posted by tommasz at 10:33 AM on April 3 [21 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 10:33 AM on April 3 [21 favorites]
I believe multiple things at once:
It's about making people grovel and ask for exceptions
It's Trump's revenge against the USA for being so mean to Trump
It's Putin's revenge against the USA for destroying the economy of the USSR in the 90s
A junior staffer asked chatGPT (or whatever) how to easily impose tariffs, and this is the result
Oligarch vultures are circling, waiting for the recession so they can make even more money as the rest of us go deeper into debt
posted by subdee at 10:39 AM on April 3 [53 favorites]
It's about making people grovel and ask for exceptions
It's Trump's revenge against the USA for being so mean to Trump
It's Putin's revenge against the USA for destroying the economy of the USSR in the 90s
A junior staffer asked chatGPT (or whatever) how to easily impose tariffs, and this is the result
Oligarch vultures are circling, waiting for the recession so they can make even more money as the rest of us go deeper into debt
posted by subdee at 10:39 AM on April 3 [53 favorites]
For anyone laboring under the notion that Americans will recoil when they see the adverse effects of these policies, feel free to ask me to connect you with our Hungarian relatives who are super proud of having the fastest growing economy in Europe, even though precisely the opposite is true.
Fidesz has taken what was once the best economy in Eastern Europe and made it one of the worst.
Doesn't matter. They love that Kool-Aid.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:40 AM on April 3 [57 favorites]
Fidesz has taken what was once the best economy in Eastern Europe and made it one of the worst.
Doesn't matter. They love that Kool-Aid.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:40 AM on April 3 [57 favorites]
Make America Basically Russia
not quite the same ring to it
posted by ginger.beef at 10:47 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
not quite the same ring to it
posted by ginger.beef at 10:47 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
not quite the same ring to it
Sounded better in the originalGerman Russian.
posted by wenestvedt at 10:49 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Sounded better in the original
posted by wenestvedt at 10:49 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Acting Canadian PM Mark Carney:
"The system of global trade anchored on the United States.. is over. Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80 year period when the United States embraced the mantle of economic leadership… is over."
posted by Kitteh at 10:53 AM on April 3 [49 favorites]
"The system of global trade anchored on the United States.. is over. Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80 year period when the United States embraced the mantle of economic leadership… is over."
posted by Kitteh at 10:53 AM on April 3 [49 favorites]
I am starting to think that at some point in the near future the world is going to say fuckem instead of trying to negotiate this tariff stupidity with the US and just put on sanctions instead.
posted by fimbulvetr at 10:55 AM on April 3 [15 favorites]
posted by fimbulvetr at 10:55 AM on April 3 [15 favorites]
Stellantis, which owns Jeep, Ram, Dodge, and Chrysler, said it was temporarily halting production at a plant in Mexico and another in Canada in response to the tariffs.
Canada & Mexico should, as part of retaliatory measures, make it illegal to move industry out of borders. Any firms that are thinking of playing ball and inshore production should have the choice to not do that, or be forced to abandon their physical plant located here and rebuild it from scratch in whatever "right-to-work" state they'll likely want to move to. Seize their means of production and the land it sits on.
USMCA aka NAFTA'nt is dead. The worst thing they could have done in previous years is a lengthy arbitration process with the threat of tariffs and we're now well past that point.
Anyone got Mark or Claudia's cell #?
posted by wanderlost at 10:58 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
Canada & Mexico should, as part of retaliatory measures, make it illegal to move industry out of borders. Any firms that are thinking of playing ball and inshore production should have the choice to not do that, or be forced to abandon their physical plant located here and rebuild it from scratch in whatever "right-to-work" state they'll likely want to move to. Seize their means of production and the land it sits on.
USMCA aka NAFTA'nt is dead. The worst thing they could have done in previous years is a lengthy arbitration process with the threat of tariffs and we're now well past that point.
Anyone got Mark or Claudia's cell #?
posted by wanderlost at 10:58 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
There is a very interesting Reddit post that the tariff percentages are the trade imbalance numbers.
Short explanation: A redditor noticed that the tariff %’s are based on the inverse of the trade balance with that country as a ratio.
Example:
Cambodia: 97% tariff
US exports to Cambodia: $321.6 M
Cambodia exports to US: 12.7 B
Ratio: 321.6M / 12.7 B = ~3%
Any number under 10% is bumped up to 10%
They think that because we buy more from Cambodia than they buy from us we are getting ripped off. It makes no sense.
posted by glaucon at 11:00 AM on April 3 [25 favorites]
Short explanation: A redditor noticed that the tariff %’s are based on the inverse of the trade balance with that country as a ratio.
Example:
Cambodia: 97% tariff
US exports to Cambodia: $321.6 M
Cambodia exports to US: 12.7 B
Ratio: 321.6M / 12.7 B = ~3%
Any number under 10% is bumped up to 10%
They think that because we buy more from Cambodia than they buy from us we are getting ripped off. It makes no sense.
posted by glaucon at 11:00 AM on April 3 [25 favorites]
"Acting" Canadian PM? What?
posted by The Notorious SRD at 11:00 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
posted by The Notorious SRD at 11:00 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
For anyone laboring under the notion that Americans will recoil when they see the adverse effects of these policies, feel free to ask me to connect you with our Hungarian relatives who are super proud of having the fastest growing economy in Europe, even though precisely the opposite is true.
Fidesz has taken what was once the best economy in Eastern Europe and made it one of the worst.
Doesn't matter. They love that Kool-Aid.
I understand the feeling behind saying something like this but I think it sort of ratifies Trump's own view that his minor electoral victory amounts to a mandate. But nothing could be further from the truth. Slightly half of just half of eligible adults voted for Donald Trump.
And on the tariffs point, it seems clear that a lot of ambivalent folks voted for him on the express idea that he'd make them better off, not worse off. So I don't think this is necessarily a Hungary comparison.
Donald Trump won the 2024 election in large part on the economy and the idea that he'd make Americans financially better off. Just before he took office, a sizable four in 10 felt his policies as president would do just that. Asked about what's happening today, just a quarter of Americans say those policies are making them financially better off. Nearly twice as many say he's making their finances worse.
***
a broad majority of Americans - 70%, including 62% of Republicans - believe that increased tariffs will drive up the price of groceries and other consumer goods, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
About 53% of respondents to the poll agreed with the statement that increased tariffs would do more harm than good, while 31% disagreed. The rest were unsure or did not answer.
Just 31% of respondents agreed that U.S. workers come out ahead when the country charges tariffs on imported goods, while 48% disagreed.
***
President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to 43%, the lowest since his return to office, as Americans soured on his tariff moves and his administration's handling of information about a military strike in Yemen, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. The three-day poll, which closed on Wednesday, showed approval of Trump's performance as president down 2 percentage points from a poll conducted March 21-23 and 4 points below the 47% approval he had shortly after taking office on January 20.
posted by kensington314 at 11:01 AM on April 3 [12 favorites]
Fidesz has taken what was once the best economy in Eastern Europe and made it one of the worst.
Doesn't matter. They love that Kool-Aid.
I understand the feeling behind saying something like this but I think it sort of ratifies Trump's own view that his minor electoral victory amounts to a mandate. But nothing could be further from the truth. Slightly half of just half of eligible adults voted for Donald Trump.
And on the tariffs point, it seems clear that a lot of ambivalent folks voted for him on the express idea that he'd make them better off, not worse off. So I don't think this is necessarily a Hungary comparison.
Donald Trump won the 2024 election in large part on the economy and the idea that he'd make Americans financially better off. Just before he took office, a sizable four in 10 felt his policies as president would do just that. Asked about what's happening today, just a quarter of Americans say those policies are making them financially better off. Nearly twice as many say he's making their finances worse.
***
a broad majority of Americans - 70%, including 62% of Republicans - believe that increased tariffs will drive up the price of groceries and other consumer goods, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
About 53% of respondents to the poll agreed with the statement that increased tariffs would do more harm than good, while 31% disagreed. The rest were unsure or did not answer.
Just 31% of respondents agreed that U.S. workers come out ahead when the country charges tariffs on imported goods, while 48% disagreed.
***
President Donald Trump's approval rating fell to 43%, the lowest since his return to office, as Americans soured on his tariff moves and his administration's handling of information about a military strike in Yemen, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. The three-day poll, which closed on Wednesday, showed approval of Trump's performance as president down 2 percentage points from a poll conducted March 21-23 and 4 points below the 47% approval he had shortly after taking office on January 20.
posted by kensington314 at 11:01 AM on April 3 [12 favorites]
”It makes no sense.”
I meant if true, which is totally believable, what the actual fuck are they thinking? How dumb are these people?
posted by glaucon at 11:01 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
I meant if true, which is totally believable, what the actual fuck are they thinking? How dumb are these people?
posted by glaucon at 11:01 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
DirtyOldTown, rereading your comment I see that you were really just talking narrowly about your relatives, not about all of Hungary or something. Probably compromises my response a bit but the links are still interesting, to me.
posted by kensington314 at 11:02 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 11:02 AM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Doesn't he understand? By placing tariffs on the guano trade from Tokelau and the Christmas Atoll, he directly threatens the domestic production of black powder which will result in a grave risk to the defence of the Republic! Not to mention the impact on the security of our coaling stations in the Marianas and the Midways! I must write to the Secretary of the Navy at once!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 11:05 AM on April 3 [19 favorites]
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 11:05 AM on April 3 [19 favorites]
"The system of global trade anchored on the United States.. is over."
Yesterday, a CBC news story had the line "It's Trump's latest broadside against Canada, its one-time ally and free-trading partner", and holy shit, is that not a sentence I ever expected to read in my lifetime.
posted by Capt. Renault at 11:05 AM on April 3 [25 favorites]
Yesterday, a CBC news story had the line "It's Trump's latest broadside against Canada, its one-time ally and free-trading partner", and holy shit, is that not a sentence I ever expected to read in my lifetime.
posted by Capt. Renault at 11:05 AM on April 3 [25 favorites]
Reading all this all I can do is sort of withdraw to laughter and bizarre parallels.
From The Verge's description of the Switch 2 game, "Donkey Kong Bananza":
"While, on the surface, it’s another colorful 3D platformer ... Bananza is built around the idea of destruction. DK’s main way of interacting with the world is to smash things. That can be simple, like pulling a boulder out of the ground to toss at an enemy. But you can also smash so much that you change the terrain around you — for example, digging a massive hole in the ground".
Yeah.
posted by hankmajor at 11:07 AM on April 3 [15 favorites]
From The Verge's description of the Switch 2 game, "Donkey Kong Bananza":
"While, on the surface, it’s another colorful 3D platformer ... Bananza is built around the idea of destruction. DK’s main way of interacting with the world is to smash things. That can be simple, like pulling a boulder out of the ground to toss at an enemy. But you can also smash so much that you change the terrain around you — for example, digging a massive hole in the ground".
Yeah.
posted by hankmajor at 11:07 AM on April 3 [15 favorites]
yesterday I was sitting across from a guy who was like "actually this is good for Canada"
I mean.. if angry bees fly up my ass I suppose I can arrive at how this is good for me but I'm going to need a lot of dope and booze for that
posted by ginger.beef at 11:08 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
I mean.. if angry bees fly up my ass I suppose I can arrive at how this is good for me but I'm going to need a lot of dope and booze for that
posted by ginger.beef at 11:08 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
wait but what was the rest of that person's sentence, ginger.beef? good for Canada how?
posted by kensington314 at 11:10 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
posted by kensington314 at 11:10 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
They think that because we buy more from Cambodia than they buy from us we are getting ripped off. It makes no sense.
The same with Canada. We buy a lot of food and manufactured goods from the US, and sell them a great deal more in (mainly) raw materials. However, Canada's population is 10% of the US- there is no way we could ever consume the same amounts of US goods as we export. It's simply not possible.
And when you look at a per capita basis, and subtract oil exports (which we do sell a lot of to the US), we are almost at parity in terms of trade. Furthermore, the result of these tariffs will ultimately be Canada having less money to spend on imported goods from the US. It's like Texas placing tariffs on Oklahoma for not buying enough of their beef. It is bafflingly stupid, and these idiots may even cost Poilievre seats in Alberta!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 11:12 AM on April 3 [16 favorites]
The same with Canada. We buy a lot of food and manufactured goods from the US, and sell them a great deal more in (mainly) raw materials. However, Canada's population is 10% of the US- there is no way we could ever consume the same amounts of US goods as we export. It's simply not possible.
And when you look at a per capita basis, and subtract oil exports (which we do sell a lot of to the US), we are almost at parity in terms of trade. Furthermore, the result of these tariffs will ultimately be Canada having less money to spend on imported goods from the US. It's like Texas placing tariffs on Oklahoma for not buying enough of their beef. It is bafflingly stupid, and these idiots may even cost Poilievre seats in Alberta!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 11:12 AM on April 3 [16 favorites]
Their worldview and personal ego investment is so thoroughly and hermetically sealed, they will go down literally to immiseration and death and swear the golden era is almost upon us.
I had a college prof who grew up in Berlin in the 50's. He was awesome, one of my favorite profs ever. We would talk outside of class and I got a lot of wild stories. Among them: His parents had been in the Hitler Jugend. When they were drunk they would goose step around the house and belligerently claim that someday they would get the treasures that they were promised...
See also: The Great Disappointment.
THAT BEING SAID, not all Trump voters are true believers. Those will go down with the ship, no doubt. But there are a lot of politically casual people who voted for Trump - people who voted for him and left the rest of the ballot blank, and etc. Somehow, he's losing Rogan over illegal arrests and deportations. There are also a lot of people in the CNBC camp who just reflexively (despite all evidence, probably because daddy issues or something) believe that Republicans are better for the economy. It's a very durable myth. There are also a lot of people just drawn to him because they think he's a "winner."
All of these groups can be lost. The American electorate is such that half a percent swing can and does change the outcome of the election. It would be an error to think that competitive authoritarianism is a fait accompli. Call your congress critters and ask what they're doing to speak out (and when you call your Senators, be sure to tell them Schumer's an out of touch d-bag and needs to be out of leadership yesterday). Go out and protest on Saturday. If you can't make it, don't worry, there will be more. Get active. Protest doesn't matter until it does.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 11:15 AM on April 3 [22 favorites]
I had a college prof who grew up in Berlin in the 50's. He was awesome, one of my favorite profs ever. We would talk outside of class and I got a lot of wild stories. Among them: His parents had been in the Hitler Jugend. When they were drunk they would goose step around the house and belligerently claim that someday they would get the treasures that they were promised...
See also: The Great Disappointment.
THAT BEING SAID, not all Trump voters are true believers. Those will go down with the ship, no doubt. But there are a lot of politically casual people who voted for Trump - people who voted for him and left the rest of the ballot blank, and etc. Somehow, he's losing Rogan over illegal arrests and deportations. There are also a lot of people in the CNBC camp who just reflexively (despite all evidence, probably because daddy issues or something) believe that Republicans are better for the economy. It's a very durable myth. There are also a lot of people just drawn to him because they think he's a "winner."
All of these groups can be lost. The American electorate is such that half a percent swing can and does change the outcome of the election. It would be an error to think that competitive authoritarianism is a fait accompli. Call your congress critters and ask what they're doing to speak out (and when you call your Senators, be sure to tell them Schumer's an out of touch d-bag and needs to be out of leadership yesterday). Go out and protest on Saturday. If you can't make it, don't worry, there will be more. Get active. Protest doesn't matter until it does.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 11:15 AM on April 3 [22 favorites]
Don't waste any more time trying to sell your Tesla.
We'll take it from here...
posted by chavenet at 11:16 AM on April 3 [17 favorites]
We'll take it from here...
posted by chavenet at 11:16 AM on April 3 [17 favorites]
Yeah, kensington314, all I was saying is true believers gonna truly believe. I don't think most of the MAGA crowd will be deterred at all by none of this economic policy working even a little, and I don't think media coverage is ever going to get much more critical than "Some people point out [publicly available and incontrovertibly true evidence] that this might not be working out. Could they be right?"
There is, for what it's worth, some momentum in Hungary to dissent against Orbán's regime now (including some of our other cousins) but with the election laws they have, it would be difficult-to-impossible for the opposition to break through his various technically-legal-because-he-wrote-the-laws antidemocratic policies to unseat Fidesz in the next election, even so.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:16 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
There is, for what it's worth, some momentum in Hungary to dissent against Orbán's regime now (including some of our other cousins) but with the election laws they have, it would be difficult-to-impossible for the opposition to break through his various technically-legal-because-he-wrote-the-laws antidemocratic policies to unseat Fidesz in the next election, even so.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 11:16 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
wait but what was the rest of that person's sentence, ginger.beef? good for Canada how?
context: UCP supporter in the province of Alberta
but I will add: he is not a dummy, he does pay attention to things and he does have a curious mind. He works closely with gov't, you might call him a lobbyist for the ag sector but he also ran for MLA in my riding (unsuccessfully). we try to have civil conversations and probably mutually avoid certain topics, I find the exchanges we have every 3-6 months to provide useful insight to a perspective that is foreign to me
he thinks the math will pan out, basically. I think we are both predisposed to a certain view and we arrived at "respectfully disagree" (it was a noisy meal and not the best time to get into things)
posted by ginger.beef at 11:16 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
context: UCP supporter in the province of Alberta
but I will add: he is not a dummy, he does pay attention to things and he does have a curious mind. He works closely with gov't, you might call him a lobbyist for the ag sector but he also ran for MLA in my riding (unsuccessfully). we try to have civil conversations and probably mutually avoid certain topics, I find the exchanges we have every 3-6 months to provide useful insight to a perspective that is foreign to me
he thinks the math will pan out, basically. I think we are both predisposed to a certain view and we arrived at "respectfully disagree" (it was a noisy meal and not the best time to get into things)
posted by ginger.beef at 11:16 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
”It makes no sense.”
I meant if true, which is totally believable, what the actual fuck are they thinking? How dumb are these people?
It's true, financial journalist James Surowiecki figured it out at 6:22 pm yesterday and posted so on Xitter:
BlueSky link of someone posting a screenshot cause I ain't linking to the fascist site.
posted by soundguy99 at 11:18 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
I meant if true, which is totally believable, what the actual fuck are they thinking? How dumb are these people?
It's true, financial journalist James Surowiecki figured it out at 6:22 pm yesterday and posted so on Xitter:
BlueSky link of someone posting a screenshot cause I ain't linking to the fascist site.
posted by soundguy99 at 11:18 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
The Notorious SRD: ""Acting" Canadian PM? What?"
Canada has called elections, they'll be on April 28.
posted by chavenet at 11:19 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Canada has called elections, they'll be on April 28.
posted by chavenet at 11:19 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
"Acting" Canadian PM? What?
Well he's the PM by virtue of being party leader of the party who formed the government in the house of commons. But he not an elected MP, we're actually in an election campaign right now, so it's an unusual situation.
Right now he's in a good position to win the election and form a majority government. Which I would not have believed possible 6 moths ago.
When he started to say "master in our own home" for some reason I half expected it to be "masters of our own domain". Too much Seinfeld.
Interestingly "Master in our own home", could be used as the English translation of "Maîtres chez nous" the slogan used by the province Quebec's Liberal Party during the 1962 elections that spearheaded the 'Quiet Revolution' that drastically changed the province of Quebec (for the better) in the 60s. He's not really my guy, but lets hope the results will be mirror this economically wise (he doesn't seem the type of big social reforms).
On edit: ho I don't think any of this is news to you.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:19 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
Well he's the PM by virtue of being party leader of the party who formed the government in the house of commons. But he not an elected MP, we're actually in an election campaign right now, so it's an unusual situation.
Right now he's in a good position to win the election and form a majority government. Which I would not have believed possible 6 moths ago.
When he started to say "master in our own home" for some reason I half expected it to be "masters of our own domain". Too much Seinfeld.
Interestingly "Master in our own home", could be used as the English translation of "Maîtres chez nous" the slogan used by the province Quebec's Liberal Party during the 1962 elections that spearheaded the 'Quiet Revolution' that drastically changed the province of Quebec (for the better) in the 60s. He's not really my guy, but lets hope the results will be mirror this economically wise (he doesn't seem the type of big social reforms).
On edit: ho I don't think any of this is news to you.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:19 AM on April 3 [8 favorites]
Trump held a gun up to America's head, and voters either said, "hell yeah", or at best, "meh, could be worse ".
We're all going to get exactly what those voters deserve.
posted by 2N2222 at 11:21 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
We're all going to get exactly what those voters deserve.
posted by 2N2222 at 11:21 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
One factoid I haven't seen picked up much by the media is that Trump's poster of tariff rates listed Taiwan separately from China.
Does this mean the "One China" policy is dead? In saner times this would be seen as a massive provocation.
posted by hankmajor at 11:22 AM on April 3 [14 favorites]
Does this mean the "One China" policy is dead? In saner times this would be seen as a massive provocation.
posted by hankmajor at 11:22 AM on April 3 [14 favorites]
The White House has officially confirmed their idiotic method of calculating the tariffs.
posted by soundguy99 at 11:23 AM on April 3 [20 favorites]
posted by soundguy99 at 11:23 AM on April 3 [20 favorites]
He's not really my guy, but lets hope the results will be mirror this economically wise (he doesn't seem the type of big social reforms).
Shepherd said that in the past, Carney would have been a Blue Grit. He's definitely the most conservative choice for Liberal Party leader, sure, but right now, I have to be okay with that. Carney's background feels more apt for the current crisis than a former backbencher who's never really held a job. (Sorry, I just cannot imagine any juice that PP might have in talking to the current president.)
posted by Kitteh at 11:27 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Shepherd said that in the past, Carney would have been a Blue Grit. He's definitely the most conservative choice for Liberal Party leader, sure, but right now, I have to be okay with that. Carney's background feels more apt for the current crisis than a former backbencher who's never really held a job. (Sorry, I just cannot imagine any juice that PP might have in talking to the current president.)
posted by Kitteh at 11:27 AM on April 3 [1 favorite]
“Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4… The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25.”
4 * 0.25 =1
So their fancy Greek letters cancel each other out.
To arrive in Stupidland, population 1.
posted by whatevernot at 11:28 AM on April 3 [18 favorites]
4 * 0.25 =1
So their fancy Greek letters cancel each other out.
To arrive in Stupidland, population 1.
posted by whatevernot at 11:28 AM on April 3 [18 favorites]
The next round of Trump approval rating polls will be interesting. He's at 43% now (Reuters, with a *beautiful* photo) and that was before today's tariff apocalypse. So in theory, between the stock plunge and the all-channels press coverage it's getting, that number will drop.
But that should only be the beginning, because only about 60% of U.S. families own stocks. So four out of 10 families aren't really noticing or feeling this yet. But in a few weeks, when everything costs more, they will, and that should ding Trump's approval again.
I wonder how low it would have to fall before House Republicans will notice and develop spines.
posted by martin q blank at 11:30 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
But that should only be the beginning, because only about 60% of U.S. families own stocks. So four out of 10 families aren't really noticing or feeling this yet. But in a few weeks, when everything costs more, they will, and that should ding Trump's approval again.
I wonder how low it would have to fall before House Republicans will notice and develop spines.
posted by martin q blank at 11:30 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
Democrats did a terrible job of explaining how these tariffs would amount to a “sales tax” on every American. But even if they had done a great job of explaining it, far too many people were not ready to believe that Trump was eager to drive the economy off a cliff. After a decade of sane washing and normalizing and flag hugging too many people were blind to his hatred of America and the American people. Welcome to the Find Out Era.
posted by rikschell at 11:34 AM on April 3 [16 favorites]
posted by rikschell at 11:34 AM on April 3 [16 favorites]
its not just about owning stock its also about many if not most pension systems are vested in stocks bonds etc
posted by robbyrobs at 11:35 AM on April 3 [20 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 11:35 AM on April 3 [20 favorites]
White House Spins as Russia Omitted From Tariffs List
posted by robbyrobs at 11:36 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
posted by robbyrobs at 11:36 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
Shepherd said that in the past, Carney would have been a Blue Grit. He's definitely the most conservative choice for Liberal Party leader, sure, but right now, I have to be okay with that. Carney's background feels more apt for the current crisis than a former backbencher who's never really held a job. (Sorry, I just cannot imagine any juice that PP might have in talking to the current president.)
Blue grit for sure. But.... of all current choices for PM in this election, in the current situation... I'll take him. I'm worried of the fallout of some of things we'll need to do to keep afloat, but perfect may very well be the enemy of good right now, survive long enough to face the next crisis seems to be our plight.
He seems rational, stoic and somewhat uniquely qualified to handle the economic aspects of the situation. Maybe not 'inspirational' or media savy, but then again I'm a nerd and I do like his long detailed answers.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:38 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
Blue grit for sure. But.... of all current choices for PM in this election, in the current situation... I'll take him. I'm worried of the fallout of some of things we'll need to do to keep afloat, but perfect may very well be the enemy of good right now, survive long enough to face the next crisis seems to be our plight.
He seems rational, stoic and somewhat uniquely qualified to handle the economic aspects of the situation. Maybe not 'inspirational' or media savy, but then again I'm a nerd and I do like his long detailed answers.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:38 AM on April 3 [6 favorites]
its not just about owning stock its also about many if not most pension systems are vested in stocks bonds etc
And in some cases, shortfalls in pension payouts are required by law to be made up in state or local budgets, which in turn raises people's taxes.
posted by mrgoat at 11:39 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
And in some cases, shortfalls in pension payouts are required by law to be made up in state or local budgets, which in turn raises people's taxes.
posted by mrgoat at 11:39 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
Oh, absolutely! He's plain-talking and qualified and I will take it right now.
posted by Kitteh at 11:39 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 11:39 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
Go Carney! IMO he's the best choice, as he acts like an adult a lot of the time.
posted by whatevernot at 11:40 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
posted by whatevernot at 11:40 AM on April 3 [3 favorites]
With reference to the post title I'd say we've reached our quota on comments re: whether Mark Carney will be a good PM of Canada or not
I mean, we don't like it when threads about Canada get derailed into US-centric stuff either.. it's all connected, but just sayin
posted by ginger.beef at 11:43 AM on April 3 [13 favorites]
I mean, we don't like it when threads about Canada get derailed into US-centric stuff either.. it's all connected, but just sayin
posted by ginger.beef at 11:43 AM on April 3 [13 favorites]
because only about 60% of U.S. families own stocks. So four out of 10 families aren't really noticing or feeling this yet.
True, but based on my cursory viewing of my mom's Nextdoor page today, a lot of retired folks who have been acting smug and shitty about Social Security getting gutted are feeling a little less smug about that now that the 401Ks they were boasting about are lookin a bit busted.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 11:43 AM on April 3 [41 favorites]
True, but based on my cursory viewing of my mom's Nextdoor page today, a lot of retired folks who have been acting smug and shitty about Social Security getting gutted are feeling a little less smug about that now that the 401Ks they were boasting about are lookin a bit busted.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 11:43 AM on April 3 [41 favorites]
i mean i am a big fan of derails so adjust everything i say based on that, but also discussion of the impact of the great dismantlement of the united states economy upon other countries, and of what those other countries [should do / are doing / can be doing] about said impact seems like a natural fit for this thread
posted by Sperry Topsider at 11:47 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
posted by Sperry Topsider at 11:47 AM on April 3 [7 favorites]
It is definitely an interesting strategy to crash the stock market just as you're trying to privatize social security, something that will definitely require a LOT of buy-in from a reasonable percentage of Americans.
posted by Frowner at 11:48 AM on April 3 [13 favorites]
posted by Frowner at 11:48 AM on April 3 [13 favorites]
Not sure "buy-in" is part of their playbook.
posted by whatevernot at 11:50 AM on April 3 [12 favorites]
posted by whatevernot at 11:50 AM on April 3 [12 favorites]
Not sure "buy-in" is part of their playbook.
Their playbook is exclusively “bust-out”.
posted by notoriety public at 11:51 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
Their playbook is exclusively “bust-out”.
posted by notoriety public at 11:51 AM on April 3 [4 favorites]
i mean i am a big fan of derails
and I'm wildly inconsistent either way. there was a whole-ass MeTa on this, and my Canadian politeness just can't handle it.. it's an "elbows up, if you'll excuse me" kinda thing
posted by ginger.beef at 11:55 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
and I'm wildly inconsistent either way. there was a whole-ass MeTa on this, and my Canadian politeness just can't handle it.. it's an "elbows up, if you'll excuse me" kinda thing
posted by ginger.beef at 11:55 AM on April 3 [2 favorites]
reached our quota on comments re: whether Mark Carney will be a good PM of Canada or not
Perhaps, but not on whether he’s “Acting” or not. He’s not. He is just PM, until the new PM is elected, for an election that he called.This is how our parliamentary system works. As you might expect, Canadian patience for the mis-application of titles towards our leaders is at an all time low.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 12:01 PM on April 3 [20 favorites]
Perhaps, but not on whether he’s “Acting” or not. He’s not. He is just PM, until the new PM is elected, for an election that he called.This is how our parliamentary system works. As you might expect, Canadian patience for the mis-application of titles towards our leaders is at an all time low.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 12:01 PM on April 3 [20 favorites]
WaterAndPixels: "Maîtres chez nous"
You should put in a funding request for your work at presenting Canadian and/or Quebec history to those South of the Border. Maybe if you do it in both official languages might help?
posted by Ashwagandha at 12:02 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
You should put in a funding request for your work at presenting Canadian and/or Quebec history to those South of the Border. Maybe if you do it in both official languages might help?
posted by Ashwagandha at 12:02 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
For anyone laboring under the notion that Americans will recoil when they see the adverse effects of these policies, feel free to ask me to connect you with our Hungarian relatives who are super proud of having the fastest growing economy in Europe, even though precisely the opposite is true.
I dunno when a can of Folgers costs 20 bucks I think even the most brain addled might notice
posted by rhymedirective at 12:18 PM on April 3 [9 favorites]
I dunno when a can of Folgers costs 20 bucks I think even the most brain addled might notice
posted by rhymedirective at 12:18 PM on April 3 [9 favorites]
And all the Americans will look north and shout "Save us!" and Canada will look south and whisper "Non."
posted by Faint of Butt at 12:18 PM on April 3 [45 favorites]
posted by Faint of Butt at 12:18 PM on April 3 [45 favorites]
Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut makes the case that this is about consolidating power, trying to force companies, industries, and countries to come begging hat in hand to Trump personally to get exceptions, carveouts, and reductions.
Fox News's headline this morning confirms Murphy is correct: "Trump's tariffs already have countries crawling back to negotiate"
posted by Stoof at 12:18 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
Fox News's headline this morning confirms Murphy is correct: "Trump's tariffs already have countries crawling back to negotiate"
posted by Stoof at 12:18 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
> and I'm wildly inconsistent either way. there was a whole-ass MeTa on this, and my Canadian politeness just can't handle it.. it's an "elbows up, if you'll excuse me" kinda thing
i demand that you talk about canada! i will force you to take up space!
posted by Sperry Topsider at 12:19 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
i demand that you talk about canada! i will force you to take up space!
posted by Sperry Topsider at 12:19 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese: "... a lot of retired folks who have been acting smug and shitty about Social Security getting gutted are feeling a little less smug about that now that the 401Ks they were boasting about are lookin a bit busted."
At least they can count on the value of their houses going up forever, right?
(Unrelated, but in case anyone's curious: Large Grade A eggs are $3.93/dozen ($2.79 USD) at my local No Frills in ON)
posted by wanderlost at 12:20 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
At least they can count on the value of their houses going up forever, right?
(Unrelated, but in case anyone's curious: Large Grade A eggs are $3.93/dozen ($2.79 USD) at my local No Frills in ON)
posted by wanderlost at 12:20 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
a *beautiful* photo
Haaaaar! Thank you, martin q blank.
posted by Don Pepino at 12:21 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Haaaaar! Thank you, martin q blank.
posted by Don Pepino at 12:21 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
In addition to the power consolidation (beg the king for special treatment), and the 'protection racket' (extract from industry by threatening to hurt them more) utility of this, there's also the huge market opportunity for organized crime that tariffs create. The cartels have pushed the technology a long way smuggling cocaine, are we now resurrecting prohibition-era submarine drone boats full of Nintendo consoles crossing the great lakes at night?
posted by anthill at 12:29 PM on April 3 [20 favorites]
posted by anthill at 12:29 PM on April 3 [20 favorites]
I imagine with the tariffs in place there will be a lot of cross-border shoppers coming from the US to Canada, which will be good news for shops on the Canadian side of the border. Will the US border crossings be ready for the increased work they'll be getting?
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:51 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:51 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
I imagine with the tariffs in place there will be a lot of cross-border shoppers coming from the US to Canada
Easy fix for that. Ban traveling to Canada.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 1:04 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
Easy fix for that. Ban traveling to Canada.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 1:04 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
Will the US border crossings be ready for the increased work they'll be getting?
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 4:51 PM on April 3
What increased work? It'll be balanced out by the complete dearth of Canadians traveling to the US.
posted by joannemerriam at 1:06 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 4:51 PM on April 3
What increased work? It'll be balanced out by the complete dearth of Canadians traveling to the US.
posted by joannemerriam at 1:06 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
Brazil used to have a 100% import tax on many goods until someone worked out that 100% added to zero imports is still zero. I predict a lot of Americans will start taking long distance trips just to smuggle back a few high value goods.
Yeah, in the 1990s I smuggled Casio calculators to my relatives in Brazil. Basic $15 scientific calculators (i.e. with trig and exponents, cheap graphing calcs weren't a thing yet), from Walgreens or Office Depot. Brazilian trade policy made those cheap trinkets into luxuries.
posted by ryanrs at 1:16 PM on April 3 [9 favorites]
Yeah, in the 1990s I smuggled Casio calculators to my relatives in Brazil. Basic $15 scientific calculators (i.e. with trig and exponents, cheap graphing calcs weren't a thing yet), from Walgreens or Office Depot. Brazilian trade policy made those cheap trinkets into luxuries.
posted by ryanrs at 1:16 PM on April 3 [9 favorites]
At least they can count on the value of their houses going up forever, right?
As someone who will have to sell her house when her mom's social security goes tits up believe me, I am well aware. I saved for 30 fucking years to buy her that house and gotta sell it in less than 5. I'll never live to afford another. Preparing for total financial ruin over here.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:28 PM on April 3 [38 favorites]
As someone who will have to sell her house when her mom's social security goes tits up believe me, I am well aware. I saved for 30 fucking years to buy her that house and gotta sell it in less than 5. I'll never live to afford another. Preparing for total financial ruin over here.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:28 PM on April 3 [38 favorites]
...a lot of cross-border shoppers coming from the US to Canada, which will be good news for shops on the Canadian side of the border.
Every time the bags of All-Dressed Chips in the back of my van crinkle, a fresh bead of sweat trickles down my forehead. I toy with the idea of offering the gunned-up CBP guard a handful of Mackintosh toffees, but think better of it when he glances upwards sharply, catching me looking his way as I dither. I smile weakly when he grunts and returns to examining my passport...posted by wenestvedt at 1:29 PM on April 3 [15 favorites]
Eggs were $7.99 USD at my local supermercado yesterday btw. Bought em anyway, lord knows they'll only get worse. .
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:31 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:31 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
Right now, the only time I'd brave a border crossing out of the US is if I don't plan on ever coming back. Since that isn't in the cards, I'll be hunkering down here and just figuring out what we can do without from month to month.
So far Costco has what amounts to a reasonable price for eggs, the five-dozen pack was a bit less than $30.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 1:34 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
So far Costco has what amounts to a reasonable price for eggs, the five-dozen pack was a bit less than $30.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 1:34 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
Matt Levine, the smart and readable columnist from Bloomberg, has a column today: https://archive.ph/WO6DV
He starts by saying that he's not going to write about the tariff but then kind of does so anyway?
posted by wenestvedt at 1:37 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
He starts by saying that he's not going to write about the tariff but then kind of does so anyway?
I just like that they made up the numbers to get an exact negative 1. Again, I am a financial columnist, and I have a patriotic appreciation for the US’s export industry of finance, and two of that industry’s most popular products are:He goes on to other topics, but makes it clear that, as a Money & Law Guy, this is clearly all bullshit.
1.Sprinkling some Greek letters on your work to add visual interest, and
2.Making up parameters to solve for the result you want.
Even in this tariff announcement, you see the US leaning into its comparative advantage.
posted by wenestvedt at 1:37 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
So far Costco has what amounts to a reasonable price for eggs, the five-dozen pack was a bit less than $30.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 3:34 PM on April 3
Your Costco has eggs?
posted by gc at 1:54 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by sharp pointy objects at 3:34 PM on April 3
Your Costco has eggs?
posted by gc at 1:54 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
So far Costco has what amounts to a reasonable price for eggs, the five-dozen pack was a bit less than $30.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 3:34 PM on April 3
Your Costco has eggs?
A genuine question:
Costco is something that sort of perplexes me. I left the U.S. several years ago, but it seems Costco is sort of an upper middle class preserve. You need to have a membership and a car to get to one. The people hurt by egg prices are statistically the most likely to be unlikely to benefit from Costco? (For the record, I think Costco is great, as capitalism goes - we are getting them in Europe, gradually.)
posted by hankmajor at 1:58 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
posted by sharp pointy objects at 3:34 PM on April 3
Your Costco has eggs?
A genuine question:
Costco is something that sort of perplexes me. I left the U.S. several years ago, but it seems Costco is sort of an upper middle class preserve. You need to have a membership and a car to get to one. The people hurt by egg prices are statistically the most likely to be unlikely to benefit from Costco? (For the record, I think Costco is great, as capitalism goes - we are getting them in Europe, gradually.)
posted by hankmajor at 1:58 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Couldn’t sleep last night. Saw a reddit meme about the tariff cards and just kind of stared at it while dissociating for ten minutes.
Shook myself awake and pressed the trigger on a Framework 16 no RAM/no SSD/no OS order that had been sitting in my shopping cart for, like, literally a month and accidentally refreshed just often enough to never quite expire. Then Newegg for 96GB of RAM at half the price they charge (I already have a spare 4TB SSD).
Seriously considering adding a 3D printer to the mix as well.
Mixture of a couple factors behind it all:
1) the money sitting in my bank account will never again have as much purchasing power as it does right now,
2) just got a promotion so fuck it,
3) the actual value of my brand-new fixed-rate 30 year mortgage is about to fall off a fucking cliff, so paying extra into it this year with those peak-worth dollars like I’d planned isn’t necessarily the best call, despite the interest,
4) my desktop and laptop are both six years old and unifying into a single, mobile, user serviceable and upgradeable hardware platform built specifically with Linux compatibility in mind seems like a really, really good longterm move because absolutely fuck Windows 11 with the current regime in power (yes I have all Windows 10 telemetry blocked via three completely separate methods).
I guess what I’m saying is that now is maybe the time for any long term purchases you’ve been putting off. And if those purchases happen to enhance your privacy, so much the better.
posted by Ryvar at 2:01 PM on April 3 [21 favorites]
Shook myself awake and pressed the trigger on a Framework 16 no RAM/no SSD/no OS order that had been sitting in my shopping cart for, like, literally a month and accidentally refreshed just often enough to never quite expire. Then Newegg for 96GB of RAM at half the price they charge (I already have a spare 4TB SSD).
Seriously considering adding a 3D printer to the mix as well.
Mixture of a couple factors behind it all:
1) the money sitting in my bank account will never again have as much purchasing power as it does right now,
2) just got a promotion so fuck it,
3) the actual value of my brand-new fixed-rate 30 year mortgage is about to fall off a fucking cliff, so paying extra into it this year with those peak-worth dollars like I’d planned isn’t necessarily the best call, despite the interest,
4) my desktop and laptop are both six years old and unifying into a single, mobile, user serviceable and upgradeable hardware platform built specifically with Linux compatibility in mind seems like a really, really good longterm move because absolutely fuck Windows 11 with the current regime in power (yes I have all Windows 10 telemetry blocked via three completely separate methods).
I guess what I’m saying is that now is maybe the time for any long term purchases you’ve been putting off. And if those purchases happen to enhance your privacy, so much the better.
posted by Ryvar at 2:01 PM on April 3 [21 favorites]
2) just got a promotion so fuck it,
hey, congratulations Ryvar!
posted by ginger.beef at 2:06 PM on April 3 [18 favorites]
hey, congratulations Ryvar!
posted by ginger.beef at 2:06 PM on April 3 [18 favorites]
...it seems Costco is sort of an upper middle class preserve. You need to have a membership and a car to get to one. The people hurt by egg prices are statistically the most likely to be unlikely to benefit from Costco?
posted by hankmajor at 1:58 PM on April 3
Yes, my Costco often has eggs. Tbf, this area has a lot of egg production farms, so that probably helps.
And also yes, hankmajor. Costco absolutely feels like a place you either need to be upper middle class (or have a friend/family member with a membership). If you can't afford $30 on eggs or have space to store 5 doz in one go, this doesn't help you.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 2:07 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
posted by hankmajor at 1:58 PM on April 3
Yes, my Costco often has eggs. Tbf, this area has a lot of egg production farms, so that probably helps.
And also yes, hankmajor. Costco absolutely feels like a place you either need to be upper middle class (or have a friend/family member with a membership). If you can't afford $30 on eggs or have space to store 5 doz in one go, this doesn't help you.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 2:07 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Costco is something that sort of perplexes me. I left the U.S. several years ago, but it seems Costco is sort of an upper middle class preserve. You need to have a membership and a car to get to one.
My experience is that they sort of cut across classes — it's just that if you're poor or lower middle class and shop there, you're more likely to be a big family who all shop together, so you're splitting the cost of the car and the membership across more people.
posted by Birds, snakes, and aeroplanes at 2:11 PM on April 3 [23 favorites]
My experience is that they sort of cut across classes — it's just that if you're poor or lower middle class and shop there, you're more likely to be a big family who all shop together, so you're splitting the cost of the car and the membership across more people.
posted by Birds, snakes, and aeroplanes at 2:11 PM on April 3 [23 favorites]
You need to have a membership and a car to get to one
A membership yes, but a car? Arlington Virginia has a Costco and an 8 minute walk from the nearest Metro station.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 2:17 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
A membership yes, but a car? Arlington Virginia has a Costco and an 8 minute walk from the nearest Metro station.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 2:17 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Mike Madden from WaPo on Bluesky:
"Internal White House talking points tell advisers not to suggest that the "reciprocal" tariffs are up for negotiation, @jeffstein.bsky.social and Natalie Allison report"
So who the fuck knows what's going on.
posted by soundguy99 at 2:18 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
"Internal White House talking points tell advisers not to suggest that the "reciprocal" tariffs are up for negotiation, @jeffstein.bsky.social and Natalie Allison report"
So who the fuck knows what's going on.
posted by soundguy99 at 2:18 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Costco is something that sort of perplexes me. I left the U.S. several years ago, but it seems Costco is sort of an upper middle class preserve. You need to have a membership and a car to get to one.
Tuesday afternoons at my Costco are when the bus loads of Chinese folks come to shop. I don't know what the situation is, but it's obviously some kind of organized operation. They have two charter busses full of people, come shop for 2ish hours and eat at the food court, and all check out on one guy's membership. I've witnessed it a few times. The first time I thought it was just a charming quirk, the second time I asked a Costco employee and she said this was a regularly scheduled visit, that she wasn't sure if it was a tour group or a Chinatown church or what but they always come on Tuesdays, and the third time I happened to have a free afternoon off work and thought I'd capitalize on the low population Costco density to get my shopping done faster and then saw the charter busses in the parking lot and realized ah heck no such luck. 120 people all getting a hot dog at the same time.
tl;dr Costco with no individual membership or car required
posted by phunniemee at 2:18 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
Tuesday afternoons at my Costco are when the bus loads of Chinese folks come to shop. I don't know what the situation is, but it's obviously some kind of organized operation. They have two charter busses full of people, come shop for 2ish hours and eat at the food court, and all check out on one guy's membership. I've witnessed it a few times. The first time I thought it was just a charming quirk, the second time I asked a Costco employee and she said this was a regularly scheduled visit, that she wasn't sure if it was a tour group or a Chinatown church or what but they always come on Tuesdays, and the third time I happened to have a free afternoon off work and thought I'd capitalize on the low population Costco density to get my shopping done faster and then saw the charter busses in the parking lot and realized ah heck no such luck. 120 people all getting a hot dog at the same time.
tl;dr Costco with no individual membership or car required
posted by phunniemee at 2:18 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
You need to have a membership and a car to get to one
A membership yes, but a car? Arlington Virginia has a Costco and an 8 minute walk from the nearest Metro station.
In many places Costco is not situated to be this easily accessible. Even if they were, a lot of people tend to use Costco to buy massive amounts of stuff at one go, so practically speaking, transportation of several pallets' worth of stuff home probably requires some kind of mechanical aid if you're buying bulk.
posted by axiom at 2:23 PM on April 3 [11 favorites]
A membership yes, but a car? Arlington Virginia has a Costco and an 8 minute walk from the nearest Metro station.
In many places Costco is not situated to be this easily accessible. Even if they were, a lot of people tend to use Costco to buy massive amounts of stuff at one go, so practically speaking, transportation of several pallets' worth of stuff home probably requires some kind of mechanical aid if you're buying bulk.
posted by axiom at 2:23 PM on April 3 [11 favorites]
Costco is something that sort of perplexes me. I left the U.S. several years ago, but it seems Costco is sort of an upper middle class preserve. You need to have a membership and a car to get to one.
As a note, unless you live in one of the major urban areas of the country (not most people) where there are developed means of mass transport, personal transportation is essentially a must have to retain a job. The majority of Americans live in this zone where, probably a hundred years ago, there was a brief shining moment where an infrastructure existed or could have been develop to promote a world that wasn't reliant on the automobile. That ended long ago.
The real question is whether individuals can afford the membership and/or gas to reach the Costco or other warehouse store. Sam's Club is definitely not an upper middle class preserve, for example, and currently offers two dozen eggs for less than $10 (so the internet says, but it was $13 when I went to our local Sam's last weekend). The warehouse operations exist on the presumption that bulk is cheaper (not always), so they will probably see an uptick where people will assume they are being priced more for individual items in their regular grocery markets versus buying in bulk.
If things get worse, we will definitely examine closely where we can get the best value for our shrinking dollars.
posted by Atreides at 2:28 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
As a note, unless you live in one of the major urban areas of the country (not most people) where there are developed means of mass transport, personal transportation is essentially a must have to retain a job. The majority of Americans live in this zone where, probably a hundred years ago, there was a brief shining moment where an infrastructure existed or could have been develop to promote a world that wasn't reliant on the automobile. That ended long ago.
The real question is whether individuals can afford the membership and/or gas to reach the Costco or other warehouse store. Sam's Club is definitely not an upper middle class preserve, for example, and currently offers two dozen eggs for less than $10 (so the internet says, but it was $13 when I went to our local Sam's last weekend). The warehouse operations exist on the presumption that bulk is cheaper (not always), so they will probably see an uptick where people will assume they are being priced more for individual items in their regular grocery markets versus buying in bulk.
If things get worse, we will definitely examine closely where we can get the best value for our shrinking dollars.
posted by Atreides at 2:28 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
with a *beautiful* photo
That is beautiful. He's been notably balder in recent photos. Either he's more bald, photo editors aren't covering (hi-yo!) for him any more, o ¿por qué no los dos?"
posted by kirkaracha at 2:33 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
That is beautiful. He's been notably balder in recent photos. Either he's more bald, photo editors aren't covering (hi-yo!) for him any more, o ¿por qué no los dos?"
posted by kirkaracha at 2:33 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Yeah Costco is a land of contrasts. My ultra-broke dad would never fuck with Costco because he was all about ~*cash flow*~ (aka, he did not have 30 bucks, no matter how many eggs it might buy). I don't know if it's specifically an upper-middle-class preserve but there's definitely a floor on who can make it work/worthwhile.
As a person who's always lived either alone or with one partner, and who hasn't had a car since 2008, I've never been able to make the math work on Costco either. But depending upon how bad things get, I may have to give up my delightful urban existence for a multigenerational small-town nightmare so in that case, there would be a costco in my future for sure.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 2:36 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
As a person who's always lived either alone or with one partner, and who hasn't had a car since 2008, I've never been able to make the math work on Costco either. But depending upon how bad things get, I may have to give up my delightful urban existence for a multigenerational small-town nightmare so in that case, there would be a costco in my future for sure.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 2:36 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
I've never been able to make the math work on Costco either.
Me neither I 'work it' to get a sams card every year for 20.00 and it saves a lot on the gas tank
posted by robbyrobs at 2:39 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Me neither I 'work it' to get a sams card every year for 20.00 and it saves a lot on the gas tank
posted by robbyrobs at 2:39 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
The biggest factor in whether Costco makes sense (in my opinion) is whether you have
(a) storage space for a lot of stuff
(b) enough family members so that you can eat 5 dozen eggs before they go bad
(I have more or less enough storage space; my household is just me and my cat; if it weren't for the fact that large, crowded shopping spaces make me extremely uncomfortable, a membership would probably be a sensible purchase.)
posted by Jeanne at 2:45 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
(a) storage space for a lot of stuff
(b) enough family members so that you can eat 5 dozen eggs before they go bad
(I have more or less enough storage space; my household is just me and my cat; if it weren't for the fact that large, crowded shopping spaces make me extremely uncomfortable, a membership would probably be a sensible purchase.)
posted by Jeanne at 2:45 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
Prolonging the derail, but it would make so much sense for a few small families to cooperate so that they pool their requirements, then a Costco visit to get all the things, then divvy them up at home. This is of course assuming just the products you already know that you can save on by buying from Costco.
As a childless retired couple, of course we don't do this. (- sigh -) But we do make the occasional run, and we justify the annual membership cost with one or two big purchases. Eg we just got our dryer there. Totally online, they include delivery and carting the deceased appliance away, and they double the 1 yr warranty. We also like buying meat in bulk - eg salmon, ribs, etc - then cutting up and freezing.
I also like their merino wool sox and Stanfields gotch.
(we're gonna get through this by swapping shopping advice. Right?)
posted by Artful Codger at 2:45 PM on April 3 [16 favorites]
As a childless retired couple, of course we don't do this. (- sigh -) But we do make the occasional run, and we justify the annual membership cost with one or two big purchases. Eg we just got our dryer there. Totally online, they include delivery and carting the deceased appliance away, and they double the 1 yr warranty. We also like buying meat in bulk - eg salmon, ribs, etc - then cutting up and freezing.
I also like their merino wool sox and Stanfields gotch.
(we're gonna get through this by swapping shopping advice. Right?)
posted by Artful Codger at 2:45 PM on April 3 [16 favorites]
it seems Costco is sort of an upper middle class preserve. You need to have a membership and a car to get to one.
If only upper middle class people in America had cars, it would look like a much different place.
Anyway, people with EBT can get free Costco memberships if you're receiving benefits from specific programs, like SNAP, Medicaid, Veteran's Pensions, home Energy Assistance. I really don't think Costco is any sort of upper middle class preserve- as numerous people have pointed out, people regularly share memberships and shopping trips. Having worked numerous retail/gardening jobs, most of my colleagues were certainly not even "middle" class, but frequently shopped there (especially if they had kids).
posted by oneirodynia at 2:57 PM on April 3 [17 favorites]
If only upper middle class people in America had cars, it would look like a much different place.
Anyway, people with EBT can get free Costco memberships if you're receiving benefits from specific programs, like SNAP, Medicaid, Veteran's Pensions, home Energy Assistance. I really don't think Costco is any sort of upper middle class preserve- as numerous people have pointed out, people regularly share memberships and shopping trips. Having worked numerous retail/gardening jobs, most of my colleagues were certainly not even "middle" class, but frequently shopped there (especially if they had kids).
posted by oneirodynia at 2:57 PM on April 3 [17 favorites]
Ryvar: "I guess what I’m saying is that now is maybe the time for any long term purchases you’ve been putting off. And if those purchases happen to enhance your privacy, so much the better.
posted by Ryvar "
Oooh that's a good suggestion if I had any moneys
posted by tiny frying pan at 3:07 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
posted by Ryvar "
Oooh that's a good suggestion if I had any moneys
posted by tiny frying pan at 3:07 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
is whether you have
D) a baby, especially a formula feeding one- Costco diapers and formula are hilariously cheaper than pretty much anywhere else while still being high quality.
E) this goes doubly so if you have twins, since you now need 2x the above, and they’re like one of 3 places that have shopping carts w/ space for 2 tiny kids.
Niche, I know, but that’s what is the biggest driver of our Costco trips, apart from it also being the cheapest place to get reasonable quality cheese & meat.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 3:13 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
D) a baby, especially a formula feeding one- Costco diapers and formula are hilariously cheaper than pretty much anywhere else while still being high quality.
E) this goes doubly so if you have twins, since you now need 2x the above, and they’re like one of 3 places that have shopping carts w/ space for 2 tiny kids.
Niche, I know, but that’s what is the biggest driver of our Costco trips, apart from it also being the cheapest place to get reasonable quality cheese & meat.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 3:13 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
Not sure about this Costco derail but since Amazon sucks so much I'll take this chance to note again that Costco's website lets you buy various (though not all) of their offerings without a membership. Shipping's free on some items. Apparently there's also instacart delivery for groceries - no idea how much it costs or if you need a membership for that.
(As for the original question, I've known people who went there specifically for its gas prices and others who got memberships to access some specific Costco service - they do car stuff, glasses/optometry, hearing aids, and so on. Apparently some of that pays for itself.)
posted by trig at 3:23 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
(As for the original question, I've known people who went there specifically for its gas prices and others who got memberships to access some specific Costco service - they do car stuff, glasses/optometry, hearing aids, and so on. Apparently some of that pays for itself.)
posted by trig at 3:23 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
Costco does also sell eggs in more manageable cartons of 18. Availability of eggs in any size has been hit-and-miss for me the last few months; sometimes abundant, sometimes just a few lonely packages of quail or duck eggs left.
Costco generally has very good prices on staples -- milk, eggs, cheese, butter, bread, coffee, paper goods, etc; its not filling the cart with expensive luxury items that's the trick.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 3:30 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
Costco generally has very good prices on staples -- milk, eggs, cheese, butter, bread, coffee, paper goods, etc; its not filling the cart with expensive luxury items that's the trick.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 3:30 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
The issue with using Costco without a car is that the whole thing is based around enormous lots of goods that you could never take on a bus or subway. Just the paper towels are the size of a preteen child.
Also the new Costco here has made traffic past my neighborhood heinous and I can no longer reliably turn left to (ironically) get to the Costco myself. Where, yes, I have a membership :-)
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:37 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Also the new Costco here has made traffic past my neighborhood heinous and I can no longer reliably turn left to (ironically) get to the Costco myself. Where, yes, I have a membership :-)
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:37 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Once upon a time, I am told, Congressional Republicans lived in fear of Grover Norquist and his crusade against taxes. You would think that, as a guy who is so against taxes he opposes pre-prepaired tax filing, he would be shouting from the rooftops at how dumb this is and demand Congress keep him in check. Instead, as Lessig points out:
posted by pwnguin at 3:37 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
All this shows the deep corruption of putatively principled reform organizations like Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform: Look at their web page — not a single front page story about this senseless new federal tax. If you Google a bit, you’ll find Norquist before the election forgiving tariffs as a useful “negotiating tool.” What exactly are we negotiating with our Great Enemy to the North?
posted by pwnguin at 3:37 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
How influential in the financial world is CNBC and commentators like Cramer? Because I am stunned the market did not take into account the tariffs and Trump crazy. Watching finance people carrying gasoline to put out the fire, Lutnick, and the commentators trying to rationalize this as multi-dimensional chess is bewildering.
posted by jadepearl at 3:59 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 3:59 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
Norquist and the rest don’t really care about taxes, it’s just a convenient rallying cry that ultimately converts people to support more heinous policies.
posted by glaucon at 4:00 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
posted by glaucon at 4:00 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
Still confused by folks who have ever taken a Republican or their operatives at their word . . . these people do not and have not ever believed in anything beyond being in power and making others suffer. Why people spend so much energy crying "hypocrisy" on these folks is baffling to me. They do not care and they never have cared. If people would just finally get this into their brains we might actually be able to do something about them.
posted by flamk at 4:02 PM on April 3 [18 favorites]
posted by flamk at 4:02 PM on April 3 [18 favorites]
How is drum not being banged by the Finance bros that Russia is exempt from tariffs?
posted by jadepearl at 4:02 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
posted by jadepearl at 4:02 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
Janel Comeau writes:
I have tariffedposted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:05 PM on April 3 [78 favorites]
the penguins
that are on
Heard Island
and which
you were probably
assuming
did not export goods
forgive me
they were taking advantage of us
so cunning
and so cold
I'm confused. Trump promised lots of winning, but how do we get there with own goals?
posted by kirkaracha at 4:09 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
posted by kirkaracha at 4:09 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
How influential in the financial world is CNBC and commentators like Cramer
Cramer specifically: he is on when the market is closed. He is a clown mostly, and his job is to deliver people who trade too often and with poor information to brokerages that advertise when his show airs.
CNBC in general: from what I hear, if there's a TV in a trading desk, it'll be tuned to CNBC and on mute unless something major is happening. But in general about as influential as a TV in a car repair shop tuned to some 24/7 top gear channel: your job is not to watch TV, and especially not the TV everyone else is watching.
posted by pwnguin at 4:10 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
Cramer specifically: he is on when the market is closed. He is a clown mostly, and his job is to deliver people who trade too often and with poor information to brokerages that advertise when his show airs.
CNBC in general: from what I hear, if there's a TV in a trading desk, it'll be tuned to CNBC and on mute unless something major is happening. But in general about as influential as a TV in a car repair shop tuned to some 24/7 top gear channel: your job is not to watch TV, and especially not the TV everyone else is watching.
posted by pwnguin at 4:10 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
how do we get there with own goals?
It depends, are the scores being stored as 8bit signed integers, or 32bit unsigned?
posted by funkaspuck at 4:17 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
It depends, are the scores being stored as 8bit signed integers, or 32bit unsigned?
posted by funkaspuck at 4:17 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
Fox News's headline this morning confirms Murphy is correct: "Trump's tariffs already have countries crawling back to negotiate"
Are they though? Is there any world in which this could be the intent - and if so, to what end? Lowering reciprocals? Am confused.
posted by freya_lamb at 4:25 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Are they though? Is there any world in which this could be the intent - and if so, to what end? Lowering reciprocals? Am confused.
posted by freya_lamb at 4:25 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
Watching finance people carrying gasoline to put out the fire, Lutnick, and the commentators trying to rationalize this as multi-dimensional chess is bewildering.
Yesterday/this morning they were all pretty uniformly aghast. As the day went on, the TV response at least became a little more mixed (though still overall negative). My forever take on the media elite approach to Trump is that they feel like it's damaging to their careers to be critical of Republicans. As a result, even when Trump is very openly saying the negative things he plans to do, they all have to assume he doesn't really mean it, or else they'd feel pressured to do something oppose it, which would be inconvenient for them.
posted by grandiloquiet at 4:25 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
Yesterday/this morning they were all pretty uniformly aghast. As the day went on, the TV response at least became a little more mixed (though still overall negative). My forever take on the media elite approach to Trump is that they feel like it's damaging to their careers to be critical of Republicans. As a result, even when Trump is very openly saying the negative things he plans to do, they all have to assume he doesn't really mean it, or else they'd feel pressured to do something oppose it, which would be inconvenient for them.
posted by grandiloquiet at 4:25 PM on April 3 [10 favorites]
The issue with using Costco without a car is that the whole thing is based around enormous lots of goods that you could never take on a bus or subway. Just the paper towels are the size of a preteen child.
In most of the places I’ve lived (mostly small towns in rural areas), lower middle class people have cars. Really shitty, unreliable cars that are constantly breaking down and causing them various financial hassles, but that is still more workable than not having a car in such places, unfortunately.
And the people without cars hijack shopping carts.
Most of the people I know with a Costco membership share one membership among multiple branches of a family, and are very much working class albeit on the shitty, unreliable car end of things rather than the getting supplies and moving between apartments by shopping cart end of things.
posted by eviemath at 4:28 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
In most of the places I’ve lived (mostly small towns in rural areas), lower middle class people have cars. Really shitty, unreliable cars that are constantly breaking down and causing them various financial hassles, but that is still more workable than not having a car in such places, unfortunately.
And the people without cars hijack shopping carts.
Most of the people I know with a Costco membership share one membership among multiple branches of a family, and are very much working class albeit on the shitty, unreliable car end of things rather than the getting supplies and moving between apartments by shopping cart end of things.
posted by eviemath at 4:28 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
kirkaracha: "I'm confused. Trump promised lots of winning, but how do we get there with own goals?"
The plan is right there
1. raise tariffs
2. ???
3. win!
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 4:39 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
The plan is right there
1. raise tariffs
2. ???
3. win!
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 4:39 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
kirkaracha: "I'm confused. Trump promised lots of winning, but how do we get there with own goals?"
He said, "We'll Have So Much Winning, You'll Get Tired of it." Never specified who would be doing the winning. Hence why you're already tired of it.
posted by wanderlost at 4:44 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
He said, "We'll Have So Much Winning, You'll Get Tired of it." Never specified who would be doing the winning. Hence why you're already tired of it.
posted by wanderlost at 4:44 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
It will be interesting to see if the real power lies with government or industry/business. This seems like the kind of presidential action that is not going to sit well with a lot of companies, and they may be inclined to do something about it- whether that's backing opposition candidates, or something more in the 25A direction?
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 4:45 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 4:45 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
On Bluesky, tech entrepreneur Amy Hoy joined others posting screenshots from ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok, each showing that the chatbots arrived at similar calculations as the Trump administration.
We have arrived: government by ChatGOP
posted by Lanark at 4:49 PM on April 3 [23 favorites]
We have arrived: government by ChatGOP
posted by Lanark at 4:49 PM on April 3 [23 favorites]
It feels like everyone is trying to work out if this is idiocy or malice, and I'm not going to let myself be forced to choose so soon. Sure maybe it's just that he's on some Peter Thiel-driven kick to devalue the entire US economy so that it can be bought by oligarchs at fire-sale prices. Maybe it's just that he doesn't understand what the word "defecit" in "trade defecit" means, and it just sounds bad to him. Maybe it's both in some way, hell I dunno.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:50 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:50 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
Are they though? Is there any world in which this could be the intent - and if so, to what end? Lowering reciprocals? Am confused.
Note the source is Fox News, founded by Australian billionaire and recreational supervillan Rupert Murdoch, and Republican political strategist Roger Ailes, who felt existing TV journalism was asking his party too many hard questions. Their job is essentially spin on behalf of their demented patron's empire. So uh, don't take the reporting at face value?
posted by pwnguin at 4:53 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Note the source is Fox News, founded by Australian billionaire and recreational supervillan Rupert Murdoch, and Republican political strategist Roger Ailes, who felt existing TV journalism was asking his party too many hard questions. Their job is essentially spin on behalf of their demented patron's empire. So uh, don't take the reporting at face value?
posted by pwnguin at 4:53 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
I (sort of) apologise for the derail about Costco. I think it justified itself by the interesting comments you all provided.
Costco is gradually taking a foothold in Europe. With a massive grain of skepticism I see it as a sort of positive side of globalised capitalism, if only by keeping the bills down (hot take)!
posted by hankmajor at 4:54 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Costco is gradually taking a foothold in Europe. With a massive grain of skepticism I see it as a sort of positive side of globalised capitalism, if only by keeping the bills down (hot take)!
posted by hankmajor at 4:54 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Trump's tariffs based on trade surpluses are a bit bogus - normally these things are self righting - because exchange rates change - if country A has a trade surplus its currency goes up and exporters earn less, but consumers see lower prices on imported goods, equally the country on the other side's (the US in this case) currency goes down and it's exporters earn more (and export more) while the cost of imported goods go up and people import less.
Trump's tariffs put up the cost of imported goods, but do nothing to raise the return on exports, if anything because other countries will do the normal thing and raise tariffs to the US equal to Trump's exports will also decline.
The real problem here is that the US$ is not allowed to float and is kept artificially high because it's used as an international currency for things like oil/etc - that means US businesses can't compete and imports are cheap - so you naturally get trade deficits and fewer manufacturing jobs at home.
I think there's hope on the horizon - looks like countries outside the US are going to keep their free trade agreements, but raise tariffs against the US (as is allowed as a response under international law) and simply start trading around the US - that's likely going to to break the US$ as international currency, maybe it will be replaced by yuan and euros - eventually (in a decade or two) it will come right
posted by mbo at 5:11 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
Trump's tariffs put up the cost of imported goods, but do nothing to raise the return on exports, if anything because other countries will do the normal thing and raise tariffs to the US equal to Trump's exports will also decline.
The real problem here is that the US$ is not allowed to float and is kept artificially high because it's used as an international currency for things like oil/etc - that means US businesses can't compete and imports are cheap - so you naturally get trade deficits and fewer manufacturing jobs at home.
I think there's hope on the horizon - looks like countries outside the US are going to keep their free trade agreements, but raise tariffs against the US (as is allowed as a response under international law) and simply start trading around the US - that's likely going to to break the US$ as international currency, maybe it will be replaced by yuan and euros - eventually (in a decade or two) it will come right
posted by mbo at 5:11 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
Bad news- it will be replaced by the Deutches Reichsmark.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 5:27 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 5:27 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Lanark: "On Bluesky, tech entrepreneur Amy Hoy joined others posting screenshots from ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok, each showing that the chatbots arrived at similar calculations as the Trump administration."
Ironically, if you feed the announced tariff plan into ChatGPT, it drops the mild "this might be a bit blunt" tone and lapses into outright horror:
Ironically, if you feed the announced tariff plan into ChatGPT, it drops the mild "this might be a bit blunt" tone and lapses into outright horror:
This policy is absolute economic madness. Slapping a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, with brutal spikes up to 49% on countries like Cambodia and 46% on Vietnam, is a self-inflicted wound dressed as nationalism. It’s not just a trade war—it’s a global trade massacre. U.S. consumers will pay more for nearly everything, supply chains will implode, and inflation will spike again. And for what? A fantasy of bringing back manufacturing that's already automated or offshore for a reason. It’s protectionism with a sledgehammer instead of a scalpel, and it risks alienating key allies while pushing emerging economies deeper into China’s orbit. If the goal was to destabilize the global order and shoot the U.S. economy in the foot simultaneously, this is a masterstroke.posted by Rhaomi at 5:48 PM on April 3 [14 favorites]
It has been interesting watching the rapid shifts in attitude toward ChatGPT and its ilk, hereabouts
posted by ginger.beef at 5:55 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
posted by ginger.beef at 5:55 PM on April 3 [6 favorites]
>Maybe it's just that he doesn't understand what the word "defecit" in "trade defecit" means, and it just sounds bad to him.
The list of things he doesn't understand is long, but one of them is 'mutually beneficial relationships'. He's never had one of those; he's uninterested in doing anything that's for anybody else's benefit, and when something would benefit him, he gets it by bullying people with his money and lawyers. He doesn't have friends, or relationships that are of mutual benefit. He lives to cheat people, and assumes that everyone else is trying to cheat him. This guy, who inherited a staggering fortune and has never had to achieve anything on his own merits or work a day in his life, believes that everybody's cheating him and the world has treated him terribly unfairly.
The same fantasy of persecution that can be seen in the ideas that there's a 'war on christmas', and that "DEI" means white people are the real victims of racism, has now given us the idea that every other country in the world was cheating the US. Based on this pathological stupidity, we've screwed ourselves out of a lucky, privileged position that we obviously don't deserve, and that we will never recover.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 5:56 PM on April 3 [45 favorites]
The list of things he doesn't understand is long, but one of them is 'mutually beneficial relationships'. He's never had one of those; he's uninterested in doing anything that's for anybody else's benefit, and when something would benefit him, he gets it by bullying people with his money and lawyers. He doesn't have friends, or relationships that are of mutual benefit. He lives to cheat people, and assumes that everyone else is trying to cheat him. This guy, who inherited a staggering fortune and has never had to achieve anything on his own merits or work a day in his life, believes that everybody's cheating him and the world has treated him terribly unfairly.
The same fantasy of persecution that can be seen in the ideas that there's a 'war on christmas', and that "DEI" means white people are the real victims of racism, has now given us the idea that every other country in the world was cheating the US. Based on this pathological stupidity, we've screwed ourselves out of a lucky, privileged position that we obviously don't deserve, and that we will never recover.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 5:56 PM on April 3 [45 favorites]
They think that because we buy more from Cambodia than they buy from us we are getting ripped off. It makes no sense.
This is very Art of the Deal Trump. He thinks if you aren't screwing someone in an exchange you are the one being screwed. Every transaction is seen as zero sum.
any tariffs imposed by the president would expire after 60 days unless Congress voted to approve them. Congress also would have the power to terminate tariffs at any time by voting to pass a resolution of disapproval. The president also would be required to notify Congress within 48 hours of putting in place or raising any tariffs.
And I'm sure every business that imports things is going to love this tariff Hokey Pokey. Business famously loves chaos and uncertainty.
The biggest factor in whether Costco makes sense (in my opinion) is whether you have
(a) storage space for a lot of stuff
(b) enough family members so that you can eat 5 dozen eggs before they go bad
Canadian Costco experience but bouncing between poor and middle class for the last 30 years membership has always paid for itself. Literally the last 20 years with their executive membership kick back. Even when I was living alone. For me there are lots of single sized products. Eg: gas, movie tickets, electronics, clothing, some appliances, ready to eat food like chicken and the food court, milk at times, pharmacy items, socks. And there is the occasional thing where I go thru so much that the large or double size is manageable even in a tiny bachelor like peanut butter. Or the three packs of rye bread which last for weeks on the counter and are 60% off supermarket price.
It's not for everyone (for one thing it severely limits choices but much of the time that's a good thing for me). And my Costco is accessible by bus, there is a stop less than a 100 metres from the door. With a kneeling bus getting a back pack and a granny cart on the bus is manageable for me.
posted by Mitheral at 6:00 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
This is very Art of the Deal Trump. He thinks if you aren't screwing someone in an exchange you are the one being screwed. Every transaction is seen as zero sum.
any tariffs imposed by the president would expire after 60 days unless Congress voted to approve them. Congress also would have the power to terminate tariffs at any time by voting to pass a resolution of disapproval. The president also would be required to notify Congress within 48 hours of putting in place or raising any tariffs.
And I'm sure every business that imports things is going to love this tariff Hokey Pokey. Business famously loves chaos and uncertainty.
The biggest factor in whether Costco makes sense (in my opinion) is whether you have
(a) storage space for a lot of stuff
(b) enough family members so that you can eat 5 dozen eggs before they go bad
Canadian Costco experience but bouncing between poor and middle class for the last 30 years membership has always paid for itself. Literally the last 20 years with their executive membership kick back. Even when I was living alone. For me there are lots of single sized products. Eg: gas, movie tickets, electronics, clothing, some appliances, ready to eat food like chicken and the food court, milk at times, pharmacy items, socks. And there is the occasional thing where I go thru so much that the large or double size is manageable even in a tiny bachelor like peanut butter. Or the three packs of rye bread which last for weeks on the counter and are 60% off supermarket price.
It's not for everyone (for one thing it severely limits choices but much of the time that's a good thing for me). And my Costco is accessible by bus, there is a stop less than a 100 metres from the door. With a kneeling bus getting a back pack and a granny cart on the bus is manageable for me.
posted by Mitheral at 6:00 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
I suppose I am admitting too much here, but here goes.
When I went to university I studied trade law and macroeconomics. I did my masters thesis on trade law. Economics may be the dismal science, but if there is anything that is ”proven” in economics, it is the ”law” of comparative advantage.
This is the strongest argument for free trade that has ever existed and is the basis for the entire economic system the world has run on since WW2.
What do the new tariffs mean? They mean a rejection of nothing less than the foundation of the trading system our world has been operating under for decades. This much is not subject to question.
This is why they can’t be seriously intended to continue forever, other than as a negotiating gambit. It is the ”madman” theory of international posturing taken further than it was ever intended to be taken.
The problem is that people will be caught up in the damage until things swing back to something resembling the status quo ante. By this I mean the vulnerable and the working class. People who will lose their jobs and be forced to pay over the odds for what should be commodities.
The challenge for serious political actors in the U.S. is for you to nudge the ship back towards the sane course. This is a political question, not an economic one. There are good arguments to shore up your domestic manufacturing base. For national defense and also to shore up the working class. Tariffs are obviously not the way, but the hard work is to convince the government (federal, state) to produce an environment conducive to investment. This can be done through countless policy means: selective subsidies, education reform, infrastructure investment.
These are all easy to sell in a sane environment. They would also cost less than a tariff war.
This is the bill of goods the opposition to trump needs to sell to your electorate.
posted by hankmajor at 6:06 PM on April 3 [20 favorites]
When I went to university I studied trade law and macroeconomics. I did my masters thesis on trade law. Economics may be the dismal science, but if there is anything that is ”proven” in economics, it is the ”law” of comparative advantage.
This is the strongest argument for free trade that has ever existed and is the basis for the entire economic system the world has run on since WW2.
What do the new tariffs mean? They mean a rejection of nothing less than the foundation of the trading system our world has been operating under for decades. This much is not subject to question.
This is why they can’t be seriously intended to continue forever, other than as a negotiating gambit. It is the ”madman” theory of international posturing taken further than it was ever intended to be taken.
The problem is that people will be caught up in the damage until things swing back to something resembling the status quo ante. By this I mean the vulnerable and the working class. People who will lose their jobs and be forced to pay over the odds for what should be commodities.
The challenge for serious political actors in the U.S. is for you to nudge the ship back towards the sane course. This is a political question, not an economic one. There are good arguments to shore up your domestic manufacturing base. For national defense and also to shore up the working class. Tariffs are obviously not the way, but the hard work is to convince the government (federal, state) to produce an environment conducive to investment. This can be done through countless policy means: selective subsidies, education reform, infrastructure investment.
These are all easy to sell in a sane environment. They would also cost less than a tariff war.
This is the bill of goods the opposition to trump needs to sell to your electorate.
posted by hankmajor at 6:06 PM on April 3 [20 favorites]
However, Canada's population is 10% of the US- there is no way we could ever consume the same amounts of US goods as we export. It's simply not possible.
Well Australia's population is 27m (vs Canada's 40m). According to USTR which Trump has used to mathematically calculate the tariffs, Australia exports $17b to the US but buys $34b in return, making us a net buyer of US products. Furthermore Australia also pretty much said that even if Trump imposed tariffs on Australia we would not retaliate with counter tariffs or bans, we because we really believe that free trade makes everyone more prosperous. The fact that Trump still wants to imposed tariffs on Australia is crazy.
posted by xdvesper at 6:14 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
Well Australia's population is 27m (vs Canada's 40m). According to USTR which Trump has used to mathematically calculate the tariffs, Australia exports $17b to the US but buys $34b in return, making us a net buyer of US products. Furthermore Australia also pretty much said that even if Trump imposed tariffs on Australia we would not retaliate with counter tariffs or bans, we because we really believe that free trade makes everyone more prosperous. The fact that Trump still wants to imposed tariffs on Australia is crazy.
posted by xdvesper at 6:14 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
My short-and-sweet unified theory of what this is is this:
Trump thinks tariffs will mean a flood of tax money coming in from overseas.
Trump uses this as an excuse to eliminate income tax, capital gains tax, all taxes on hard-working Americans. If you don't have to pay income tax, you have lots of money to cover the increased prices, right?
He is hailed as a hero for defeating the evil of taxes and a Democrat is never elected again.
Of course, that's absolutely stupid, but I'm fairly certain that's the plan.
Costco: Personally I haven't figured it out yet, even though I signed up when it became clearer that they're a relatively liberal business in a sea of assholes. A grocery store where you really can't shop with a shopping list because you never know if they have what you want to buy, so you still need a trip to a normal grocery store too? I'm not sure how to navigate that.
posted by AzraelBrown at 6:16 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Trump thinks tariffs will mean a flood of tax money coming in from overseas.
Trump uses this as an excuse to eliminate income tax, capital gains tax, all taxes on hard-working Americans. If you don't have to pay income tax, you have lots of money to cover the increased prices, right?
He is hailed as a hero for defeating the evil of taxes and a Democrat is never elected again.
Of course, that's absolutely stupid, but I'm fairly certain that's the plan.
Costco: Personally I haven't figured it out yet, even though I signed up when it became clearer that they're a relatively liberal business in a sea of assholes. A grocery store where you really can't shop with a shopping list because you never know if they have what you want to buy, so you still need a trip to a normal grocery store too? I'm not sure how to navigate that.
posted by AzraelBrown at 6:16 PM on April 3 [5 favorites]
Wight conservatism filling the macroeconomic swimming pool with concrete.
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 6:24 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 6:24 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
He is hailed as a hero for defeating the evil of taxes and a Democrat is never elected again.
This is no doubt their thinking. The problem is that rhetorically it is compelling to low information voters and cynical politicians.
The solution is a compelling alternative. Investment in communities, innovation, the good stuff. Your federal government has massive resources. Even ”right wing” economists in Europe are on board for measures that in your country would be cast as ”socialism”.
One thing I never understood in the states is how people have selective blindness about the use of government power.
posted by hankmajor at 6:26 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
This is no doubt their thinking. The problem is that rhetorically it is compelling to low information voters and cynical politicians.
The solution is a compelling alternative. Investment in communities, innovation, the good stuff. Your federal government has massive resources. Even ”right wing” economists in Europe are on board for measures that in your country would be cast as ”socialism”.
One thing I never understood in the states is how people have selective blindness about the use of government power.
posted by hankmajor at 6:26 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
Just got back from Costco (in my car). Now catching up on this thread.
When I read "government by ChatGOP" I am 💀.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:27 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
When I read "government by ChatGOP" I am 💀.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:27 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
This is why they can’t be seriously intended to continue forever, other than as a negotiating gambit.
Trump has been pushing tariffs since the 80's. Not sure how long he's been fanboi-ing McKinley specifically, but I have no doubt he is utterly convinced that the Gilded Age with tariffs and no income tax was one of the high points of America.
I've no doubt he also sees them as a negotiating or bullying tool, but he really really really is ignorant enough to seriously want keep them forever and base our economy on them. He is not a smart man in the first place, he is clearly suffering from some sort of cognitive decline, you cannot assume any sort of rational or sensible motive. This is not the madman theory, this is a literal madman.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:37 PM on April 3 [24 favorites]
Trump has been pushing tariffs since the 80's. Not sure how long he's been fanboi-ing McKinley specifically, but I have no doubt he is utterly convinced that the Gilded Age with tariffs and no income tax was one of the high points of America.
I've no doubt he also sees them as a negotiating or bullying tool, but he really really really is ignorant enough to seriously want keep them forever and base our economy on them. He is not a smart man in the first place, he is clearly suffering from some sort of cognitive decline, you cannot assume any sort of rational or sensible motive. This is not the madman theory, this is a literal madman.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:37 PM on April 3 [24 favorites]
This is not the madman theory, this is a literal madman.
You could well be right, but in order to discuss these things we need to put some framework on it.
If he is in fact a literal madman then we may as well give up. But I don’t think he is insane. He is a malignant narcissist for sure, and he plays up those aspects of his personality for rhetorical and psychological effect.
In the animal kingdom he would be a raccoon as opposed to a crow. As in he is a pillaging moron animal as opposed to one that is surprisingly intelligent.
posted by hankmajor at 6:48 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
You could well be right, but in order to discuss these things we need to put some framework on it.
If he is in fact a literal madman then we may as well give up. But I don’t think he is insane. He is a malignant narcissist for sure, and he plays up those aspects of his personality for rhetorical and psychological effect.
In the animal kingdom he would be a raccoon as opposed to a crow. As in he is a pillaging moron animal as opposed to one that is surprisingly intelligent.
posted by hankmajor at 6:48 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
I will not stand for this calumny against raccoons!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 6:51 PM on April 3 [26 favorites]
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 6:51 PM on April 3 [26 favorites]
I will not stand for this calumny against raccoons!
I will. He is a procyonid in man’s disguise—loud, grasping, and bloated with pride, rooting through the refuse of reason for scraps of praise!
posted by hankmajor at 6:56 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
I will. He is a procyonid in man’s disguise—loud, grasping, and bloated with pride, rooting through the refuse of reason for scraps of praise!
posted by hankmajor at 6:56 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
Are these the 'concepts of a plan' that I remember hearing about during the debates?
posted by Wild_Eep at 7:05 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
posted by Wild_Eep at 7:05 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
In the animal kingdom he would be a raccoon as opposed to a crow
Well, sure, but my point was that you said "What do the new tariffs mean? They mean a rejection of nothing less than the foundation of the trading system our world has been operating under for decades." and that therefore they can't be intended to go on forever.
In your own analogy, if that were true he would be a crow, intelligent enough to understand consequences and to use tools to achieve his desires. Whereas if he's a raccoon - which he is - he literally can't engage in that sort of reasoning, he wants the rotting food in the garbage can (tariffs) and he's just smart enough to pry the lid off to get to it. And that's the limit of his intelligence, he can't even comprehend the larger problem of destroying the foundation of the modern economy, the tariffs will go on forever because they're his yummy garbage.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:13 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
Well, sure, but my point was that you said "What do the new tariffs mean? They mean a rejection of nothing less than the foundation of the trading system our world has been operating under for decades." and that therefore they can't be intended to go on forever.
In your own analogy, if that were true he would be a crow, intelligent enough to understand consequences and to use tools to achieve his desires. Whereas if he's a raccoon - which he is - he literally can't engage in that sort of reasoning, he wants the rotting food in the garbage can (tariffs) and he's just smart enough to pry the lid off to get to it. And that's the limit of his intelligence, he can't even comprehend the larger problem of destroying the foundation of the modern economy, the tariffs will go on forever because they're his yummy garbage.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:13 PM on April 3 [8 favorites]
In your own analogy, if that were true he would be a crow, intelligent enough to understand consequences and to use tools to achieve his desires.
OK - fair enough - I suppose mid-sentence I made the mistake of falling into the trap of taking him seriously, as if he was a normal politician. That is how his rhetorical tricks work - and mea culpa. For the record, I think he is a raccoon who aspires to be a crow. I don't mean to be fatuous but all we can do is laugh.
posted by hankmajor at 7:17 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
OK - fair enough - I suppose mid-sentence I made the mistake of falling into the trap of taking him seriously, as if he was a normal politician. That is how his rhetorical tricks work - and mea culpa. For the record, I think he is a raccoon who aspires to be a crow. I don't mean to be fatuous but all we can do is laugh.
posted by hankmajor at 7:17 PM on April 3 [3 favorites]
The tariffs will have waaay less of a negative, direct impact on him personally and likely opens up all kinds of potential grift revenue streams for him. His intelligence does not pass the membrane of his self-interest (imo)
posted by Golem XIV at 7:21 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
posted by Golem XIV at 7:21 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
And also, more seriously - although under Article 2 of the U.S. Constitution Trump wields the executive power, it is also the case that he is the Raccoon-in-Chief, surrounded by a bunch of wannabe crows whispering in his ear. They are all garbage feeders. Trump the raccoon is not ideological but he is surrounded by a murder of crows.
posted by hankmajor at 7:24 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
posted by hankmajor at 7:24 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
As in he is a pillaging moron animal as opposed to one that is surprisingly intelligent.
Have you ever gone up against raccoons? I mean, I’m no animal intelligence expert, but they are really, maddeningly good at what they do.
Which is more than I can say for you know who.
posted by reedbird_hill at 7:33 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
Have you ever gone up against raccoons? I mean, I’m no animal intelligence expert, but they are really, maddeningly good at what they do.
Which is more than I can say for you know who.
posted by reedbird_hill at 7:33 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
Both procyonids and corvids catching all kinds of strays in this thread...
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 7:41 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 7:41 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
Both procyonids and corvids catching all kinds of strays in this thread...
The Great War of Fur and Feather began at dawn, when a battalion of raccoons in tactical trash-can armor launched a surprise assault on the Corvid High Perch using weaponized apple cores and grease-slicks, shouting their war cry: “Finders, keepers!” The crows, led by General Cawthulhu, retaliated with divebomb formations and psychic propaganda broadcasts via shiny object reflections, scrambling raccoon morale with confusing images of vending machines. Meanwhile, a rogue skunk mercenary defected mid-battle and unleashed a forbidden scent-bomb that turned the skies green and drove both sides into a mutual retreat. Historians later dubbed it “The War of Poorly Defined Boundaries and Overlapping Curiosity.”
I call it insomnia and too many beers.
posted by hankmajor at 7:50 PM on April 3 [22 favorites]
The Great War of Fur and Feather began at dawn, when a battalion of raccoons in tactical trash-can armor launched a surprise assault on the Corvid High Perch using weaponized apple cores and grease-slicks, shouting their war cry: “Finders, keepers!” The crows, led by General Cawthulhu, retaliated with divebomb formations and psychic propaganda broadcasts via shiny object reflections, scrambling raccoon morale with confusing images of vending machines. Meanwhile, a rogue skunk mercenary defected mid-battle and unleashed a forbidden scent-bomb that turned the skies green and drove both sides into a mutual retreat. Historians later dubbed it “The War of Poorly Defined Boundaries and Overlapping Curiosity.”
I call it insomnia and too many beers.
posted by hankmajor at 7:50 PM on April 3 [22 favorites]
That is such an insult to raccoons, and I JUST SAW ONE ON MY FENCE so I know
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:53 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:53 PM on April 3 [7 favorites]
That is such an insult to raccoons, and I JUST SAW ONE ON MY FENCE so I know
I stand over this contribution to raccoon canon. God knows they need it.
posted by hankmajor at 7:58 PM on April 3
I stand over this contribution to raccoon canon. God knows they need it.
posted by hankmajor at 7:58 PM on April 3
Maybe it's just that he doesn't understand what the word "defecit" in "trade defecit" means, and it just sounds bad to him.
It's quite likely that he knows the fiscal deficit is a Bad Thing, and doesn't understand that a trade deficit is an entirely different beast.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 8:28 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
It's quite likely that he knows the fiscal deficit is a Bad Thing, and doesn't understand that a trade deficit is an entirely different beast.
posted by HiroProtagonist at 8:28 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
Both procyonids and corvids catching all kinds of strays in this thread...
Yes. The animals do an admirable job of surviving and some internet rando likens them to the shittest of shit humans, hardly seems fair
posted by ginger.beef at 9:01 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
Yes. The animals do an admirable job of surviving and some internet rando likens them to the shittest of shit humans, hardly seems fair
posted by ginger.beef at 9:01 PM on April 3 [4 favorites]
i randomly came across o superman again tonight.
this is the hand
the hand that takes
posted by Clowder of bats at 9:30 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
this is the hand
the hand that takes
posted by Clowder of bats at 9:30 PM on April 3 [2 favorites]
SO, are you going to the protests events?
posted by woman at 9:30 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
posted by woman at 9:30 PM on April 3 [1 favorite]
Data point to support Team Donald Crow: Crows can hold grudges for at least 17 years.
posted by Rumple at 9:55 PM on April 3
posted by Rumple at 9:55 PM on April 3
Hands Off! Protests on April 5th
I didn't think I could go with a new baby, but there's an itry bitty local one less than 5 minutes away from me.
I think in terms of strategy, a few MASSIVE protests in major population centers would be more effective. But selfishly I'm glad there's one I can go to with Ms. Newborn.
Anyway, there's almost 1000 of these organized. If you're in the US, you should be able to find one near you.
posted by subdee at 10:55 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
I didn't think I could go with a new baby, but there's an itry bitty local one less than 5 minutes away from me.
I think in terms of strategy, a few MASSIVE protests in major population centers would be more effective. But selfishly I'm glad there's one I can go to with Ms. Newborn.
Anyway, there's almost 1000 of these organized. If you're in the US, you should be able to find one near you.
posted by subdee at 10:55 PM on April 3 [13 favorites]
Just wondering the timescale for these tariffs to take affect.
I guess Walmarts and Amazon will have preordered products that stay at low prices before inflation hits.
posted by Narrative_Historian at 1:49 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
I guess Walmarts and Amazon will have preordered products that stay at low prices before inflation hits.
posted by Narrative_Historian at 1:49 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
The Onion: CNBC Hosts Sit In Stunned Silence For 19th Consecutive Hour ; Trump Calmly Reminds Nation That Desire The Root Of All Suffering
posted by are-coral-made at 2:01 AM on April 4 [11 favorites]
posted by are-coral-made at 2:01 AM on April 4 [11 favorites]
tiny frying pan: "That is such an insult to raccoons, and I JUST SAW ONE ON MY FENCE so I know"
"Raccoon on fence as Trump tariffs announced" --The New York Times
posted by chavenet at 2:34 AM on April 4 [8 favorites]
"Raccoon on fence as Trump tariffs announced" --The New York Times
posted by chavenet at 2:34 AM on April 4 [8 favorites]
enter iran, aka, a red tailed hawk
trump and friends - "caw caw caw caw caw caw caw"
posted by pyramid termite at 2:48 AM on April 4
trump and friends - "caw caw caw caw caw caw caw"
posted by pyramid termite at 2:48 AM on April 4
“Surely this” would be enough to maybe even consider impeachment, right? Right?
(Crickets)
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:23 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
(Crickets)
posted by rambling wanderlust at 3:23 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
Patton Oswalt reposted this on Bluesky:
Because he hates America for not giving him that second term, he says it was stolen, but he knows he lost it, he felt humiliated he will punish them just like he punished his wife for suggesting he have scalp replacement. He eventually buried her at his golf course in an untended grave.
So, Trump has identified all Americans as Libs and is in the process of Owning them. Hey, it's a theory.
posted by rory at 3:31 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
Because he hates America for not giving him that second term, he says it was stolen, but he knows he lost it, he felt humiliated he will punish them just like he punished his wife for suggesting he have scalp replacement. He eventually buried her at his golf course in an untended grave.
So, Trump has identified all Americans as Libs and is in the process of Owning them. Hey, it's a theory.
posted by rory at 3:31 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
It is deeply unlikely that there will ever be a "Surely This" moment for Republicans in Congress. They have made a bed for decades that makes people less safe broadly and now know that they themselves are at risk of physical harm for going against the party (which is Trump).
There is no "Surely This" there is only the fall.
posted by Slackermagee at 3:32 AM on April 4 [9 favorites]
There is no "Surely This" there is only the fall.
posted by Slackermagee at 3:32 AM on April 4 [9 favorites]
Meanwhile, in "responses from the rest of the world to All This" news, here's Stephen Collins's latest: The fight back against American BBQ culture starts here.
posted by rory at 4:06 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
posted by rory at 4:06 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
However, Canada's population is 10% of the US- there is no way we could ever consume the same amounts of US goods as we export. It's simply not possible.
Well Australia's population is 27m (vs Canada's 40m). According to USTR which Trump has used to mathematically calculate the tariffs, Australia exports $17b to the US but buys $34b in return, making us a net buyer of US products.
A little over 3/4 of Canadian exports go to the USA; we had completely integrated our economies. It's easier to export things to the US than across provinces, in some instances (e.g. crude oil). This lack of diversifying was (in retrospect) obviously a mistake but made sense given our geography and until recently our relationship. In that circumstance, it's impossible to out-buy the Americans, which Trump should know (not saying he remembers or ever absorbed the information) since he negotiated our until-this-stuff-happened-current free trade deal.
posted by joannemerriam at 4:18 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
Well Australia's population is 27m (vs Canada's 40m). According to USTR which Trump has used to mathematically calculate the tariffs, Australia exports $17b to the US but buys $34b in return, making us a net buyer of US products.
A little over 3/4 of Canadian exports go to the USA; we had completely integrated our economies. It's easier to export things to the US than across provinces, in some instances (e.g. crude oil). This lack of diversifying was (in retrospect) obviously a mistake but made sense given our geography and until recently our relationship. In that circumstance, it's impossible to out-buy the Americans, which Trump should know (not saying he remembers or ever absorbed the information) since he negotiated our until-this-stuff-happened-current free trade deal.
posted by joannemerriam at 4:18 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
I know that nothing about Trump's calculations makes the slightest bit of sense, but check out what his 29% tariff on Norfolk Island (a territory of Australia, which got a 10% tariff despite importing more from the US than it exports to it) was based on.
In other tariff news, China has retaliated with a 34% tariff on US goods. Goodbye, billion-person market. Goodbye, bouyant stock markets.
posted by rory at 4:23 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
In other tariff news, China has retaliated with a 34% tariff on US goods. Goodbye, billion-person market. Goodbye, bouyant stock markets.
posted by rory at 4:23 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
Swiss-based trade expert Dmitry Grozoubinski has done a back of the envelope chart using ITC Trade Map Data of what China's across-the-board tariff means for US exports. Soybean farmers, aircraft manufacturers and big pharma look like they'll be hardest hit.
posted by rory at 4:32 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
posted by rory at 4:32 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
I know the tariffs are nuts, and the locus of nutsiness is zoned in on the character or person of Trump - he’s a buffoon and a commercial failure so often in his life, BUT he’s reading teleprompters, he’s barely cognisant of concepts like ‘health care’ or gives a shit about what he is signing, he goes off-piste from the teleprompter to get a narcissistic feed from the crowd. I am wary of getting myself involved about his Main Character position because it is this cabal behind him in charge.
He’s an almost 80 year old guy, a sideshow joke his whole life in the media, he’s not even going to enjoy more than a year or two before he carks it. His ascendancy makes sense if he is just some unit that an entity groomed into some kind of asset-ness. I agree with Red Nikki’s coverage right at the top of this thread. It is the way this whole debacle makes any sense.
Also:
I want to highly recommend Moira Donegan and Adrian Daub’s ‘In Bed With the Right’ podcast, they are currently airing - ‘Project 1933’ and it is so damn absorbingly eerie.
posted by honey-barbara at 4:40 AM on April 4 [7 favorites]
He’s an almost 80 year old guy, a sideshow joke his whole life in the media, he’s not even going to enjoy more than a year or two before he carks it. His ascendancy makes sense if he is just some unit that an entity groomed into some kind of asset-ness. I agree with Red Nikki’s coverage right at the top of this thread. It is the way this whole debacle makes any sense.
Also:
I want to highly recommend Moira Donegan and Adrian Daub’s ‘In Bed With the Right’ podcast, they are currently airing - ‘Project 1933’ and it is so damn absorbingly eerie.
posted by honey-barbara at 4:40 AM on April 4 [7 favorites]
Maybe it's just that he doesn't understand what the word "defecit" in "trade defecit" means, and it just sounds bad to him.
It's quite likely that he knows the fiscal deficit is a Bad Thing, and doesn't understand that a trade deficit is an entirely different beast.
No, it's actually dumber than that. He knows what a trade deficit is, it's when "they" sell more to us than we sell to them. But because he's incapable of understanding anything
except in a zero-sum black-and-white "you're either a winner or a loser no in between" way, to him that means "they" are winning and we are losing. That's it. He thinks the US should be "winning" by selling more stuff to Vietnam and Germany and Egypt and everyone else than they sell to us, and he thinks he can force that to happen with tariffs.
posted by soundguy99 at 4:51 AM on April 4 [9 favorites]
It's quite likely that he knows the fiscal deficit is a Bad Thing, and doesn't understand that a trade deficit is an entirely different beast.
No, it's actually dumber than that. He knows what a trade deficit is, it's when "they" sell more to us than we sell to them. But because he's incapable of understanding anything
except in a zero-sum black-and-white "you're either a winner or a loser no in between" way, to him that means "they" are winning and we are losing. That's it. He thinks the US should be "winning" by selling more stuff to Vietnam and Germany and Egypt and everyone else than they sell to us, and he thinks he can force that to happen with tariffs.
posted by soundguy99 at 4:51 AM on April 4 [9 favorites]
There is one silver lining: prices rise, sales fall, freight traffic falls, production falls > lower CO2 emissions.
If they stick, these tariffs might achieve more CO2 reduction than the Paris agreement.
posted by Lanark at 5:18 AM on April 4 [21 favorites]
If they stick, these tariffs might achieve more CO2 reduction than the Paris agreement.
posted by Lanark at 5:18 AM on April 4 [21 favorites]
China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S.
posted by cendawanita at 5:34 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 5:34 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
People keep calling Trump et al stupid, as if only were they smart, they would not make these decisions.
This assumption is entirely wrong.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 6:39 AM on April 4 [12 favorites]
This assumption is entirely wrong.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 6:39 AM on April 4 [12 favorites]
For the record, the S&P and NASDAQ indexes closed yesterday at their lowest marks in seven months, the Dow just missed that (I think) and the Russell index (basically, small companies) hit a 16-month low.
Markets just opened and they're down sharply in the first few minutes.
I had an argument with our financial advisor about a month ago. I asked what they were doing to prepare for Trump tariff chaos. They came back with the usual "historically, since WW2, when Republicans control Congress and the presidency hurr durr" to which I said, "you're arguing modern historical precedent when these are fanatics running a playbook from a century ago and with no regard at all for anyone but themselves."
That went well.
posted by martin q blank at 6:47 AM on April 4 [29 favorites]
Markets just opened and they're down sharply in the first few minutes.
I had an argument with our financial advisor about a month ago. I asked what they were doing to prepare for Trump tariff chaos. They came back with the usual "historically, since WW2, when Republicans control Congress and the presidency hurr durr" to which I said, "you're arguing modern historical precedent when these are fanatics running a playbook from a century ago and with no regard at all for anyone but themselves."
That went well.
posted by martin q blank at 6:47 AM on April 4 [29 favorites]
Did someone say raccoons?
(RPG that I've heard good things about, revolves around creating mayhem, only here it's fun and ultimately harmless.)
posted by demi-octopus at 7:13 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
(RPG that I've heard good things about, revolves around creating mayhem, only here it's fun and ultimately harmless.)
posted by demi-octopus at 7:13 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
I had an argument with our financial advisor about a month ago. I asked what they were doing to prepare for Trump tariff chaos. They came back with the usual "historically, since WW2, when Republicans control Congress and the presidency hurr durr" to which I said, "you're arguing modern historical precedent when these are fanatics running a playbook from a century ago and with no regard at all for anyone but themselves."
"You should finally invest that chunk of money," everyone said. "It's just sitting there doing nothing for you," they said.
The thing about [waves hands pathetically around] is how they are attacking the middle class from every possible side. Jobs, gone. Our pathetic safety net, gone. Our meager investments, gone. Our (ever dwindling) real estate, going. It's an economic blitzkrieg but here I am sipping my coffee and doing my email job, because it's kind of invisible so far and you don't fight a blitzkrieg, you just endure it.
I know it's everyone, but lord almighty sometimes it feels like I am personally cursed. Started working in the mortgage industry--in 2007. Broke up my long-term cohabitating relationship...in March 2020.* Invested finally in the market, June 2024. I have defied the gods by trying to climb out of poverty, it would seem. They are determined to claw me back.
*Fun fact: before I pulled the trigger on my relationship I confided in my bestie about it. She said, "can you afford that???" and I said, "yes, I'm well positioned. literally unless the entire world shuts down I can afford it." That was Feb 29 2020!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 7:40 AM on April 4 [36 favorites]
"You should finally invest that chunk of money," everyone said. "It's just sitting there doing nothing for you," they said.
The thing about [waves hands pathetically around] is how they are attacking the middle class from every possible side. Jobs, gone. Our pathetic safety net, gone. Our meager investments, gone. Our (ever dwindling) real estate, going. It's an economic blitzkrieg but here I am sipping my coffee and doing my email job, because it's kind of invisible so far and you don't fight a blitzkrieg, you just endure it.
I know it's everyone, but lord almighty sometimes it feels like I am personally cursed. Started working in the mortgage industry--in 2007. Broke up my long-term cohabitating relationship...in March 2020.* Invested finally in the market, June 2024. I have defied the gods by trying to climb out of poverty, it would seem. They are determined to claw me back.
*Fun fact: before I pulled the trigger on my relationship I confided in my bestie about it. She said, "can you afford that???" and I said, "yes, I'm well positioned. literally unless the entire world shuts down I can afford it." That was Feb 29 2020!
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 7:40 AM on April 4 [36 favorites]
all of the artists and creative types are extra fucked. precarious at best, and no one has any disposable income any more, or is just saving it for when eggs are a buck a piece. i guess i should learn to endorse forged vermeers or van goghs for the vig
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:57 AM on April 4 [7 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:57 AM on April 4 [7 favorites]
invested finally in the market, June 2024. I have defied the gods by trying to climb out of poverty, it would seem.
Unless you need the money soon, you shouldn't worry too much. a falling market means your dollar buys more shares. It's over the long term (20+ years) that investing is a good idea. Over the short term (1-5 years), it's extremely variable.
However if there ever were a case for timing the market, this would have been it. A Democrat could have seen this coming back in November.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:58 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
Unless you need the money soon, you shouldn't worry too much. a falling market means your dollar buys more shares. It's over the long term (20+ years) that investing is a good idea. Over the short term (1-5 years), it's extremely variable.
However if there ever were a case for timing the market, this would have been it. A Democrat could have seen this coming back in November.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:58 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
Unless you need the money soon, you shouldn't worry too much.
I mean, I didn't need the money soon, until the government destroyed the Board of Ed and put my entire career on the chopping block, and put itself in place to bork my mother's Social Security payments, and introduced these fucking tariffs, and and and...
This is what I mean by blitzkrieg. Any aspect where I thought, oh, but I'll be okay because [I own a home, I have a job, that money is invested long-term, I'm not supporting anyone] the literal next day those fuckers have been like FUCK YOU AND FUCK THAT THING IN PARTICULAR. Five months ago I was a very stable middle-class person. It is that easy to be destroyed in America.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:10 AM on April 4 [44 favorites]
I mean, I didn't need the money soon, until the government destroyed the Board of Ed and put my entire career on the chopping block, and put itself in place to bork my mother's Social Security payments, and introduced these fucking tariffs, and and and...
This is what I mean by blitzkrieg. Any aspect where I thought, oh, but I'll be okay because [I own a home, I have a job, that money is invested long-term, I'm not supporting anyone] the literal next day those fuckers have been like FUCK YOU AND FUCK THAT THING IN PARTICULAR. Five months ago I was a very stable middle-class person. It is that easy to be destroyed in America.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 8:10 AM on April 4 [44 favorites]
Your dollar only buys more shares if you are still actively pumping money into a 401k every month and taking advantage of low prices when they come around. I’m 55 and most of my money is sitting in an IRA composed of old 401ks from old jobs. Due to ageism I just took a job paying 30% than I was making for the past decade and contributions don’t start for 60 days. So it’s not like I’m 25 with 40 years of adding money every month ahead of me.
Still privileged compared to the bottom 50% of household who tend to not have retirement plans or house assets.
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:01 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
Still privileged compared to the bottom 50% of household who tend to not have retirement plans or house assets.
posted by caviar2d2 at 9:01 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
> however if there ever were a case for timing the market, this would have been it. a democrat could have seen this coming back in november.
i recall reading some time ago that there's hedge trickery that allows one to bet on increased market instability — not betting that it'll go down, not betting that it'll go up, but just betting that it'll go weird. i don't like casino games and am kind of a dummy and so never bothered to figure out how it works, but nevertheless it seems like the obvious best thing for casino players to do right now.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 9:03 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
i recall reading some time ago that there's hedge trickery that allows one to bet on increased market instability — not betting that it'll go down, not betting that it'll go up, but just betting that it'll go weird. i don't like casino games and am kind of a dummy and so never bothered to figure out how it works, but nevertheless it seems like the obvious best thing for casino players to do right now.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 9:03 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
but everyone knows its going to be more volatile, so really you're competing with sophisticated traders wrt exactly how volatile it's going to be
posted by ryanrs at 9:05 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 9:05 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
yeah, i hate casino games.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 9:06 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
posted by Sperry Topsider at 9:06 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
Big Tech Backed Trump for Acceleration. They Got a Decel President Instead. What the accelerationists did here by backing Trump is not just accidentally shoot themselves in the foot, but methodically blow off each of their toes with a .50 caliber sniper rifle.
posted by rory at 9:07 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
posted by rory at 9:07 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
So, I've just read that US stock markets are down 9.6 trillion dollars— 9.6 million million dollars—since Trump was inaugurated. There are 340.1 million people in the US; so that's a loss, on average, of $28,200 for every man, woman and child in the country. Over $100K for a family of four.
Most people don't have anything like that much to lose in the first place, so there must be some seriously hurting fat cats right now.
Still, no more pronouns in emails, amirite?
posted by rory at 9:25 AM on April 4 [8 favorites]
Most people don't have anything like that much to lose in the first place, so there must be some seriously hurting fat cats right now.
Still, no more pronouns in emails, amirite?
posted by rory at 9:25 AM on April 4 [8 favorites]
I really shouldn't do this, but this is me removing something I immediately realised was incorrect.
posted by Grangousier at 9:29 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 9:29 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
i recall reading some time ago that there's hedge trickery that allows one to bet on increased market instability
and you just *know* that Bessent, Lutnick, Greer and whoever manages Trump's money and all the rest of these SOBs did exactly that about two weeks ago, so it wouldn't show up in any SEC reporting (if that's even a thing, and not because they care but because they didn't want to tip their hands to other investors).
S&P 500 is now right where it was on April 4, 2024. A whole year of gains gone, all of it since Feb. 20 and most of it in the last two days.
posted by martin q blank at 9:37 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
and you just *know* that Bessent, Lutnick, Greer and whoever manages Trump's money and all the rest of these SOBs did exactly that about two weeks ago, so it wouldn't show up in any SEC reporting (if that's even a thing, and not because they care but because they didn't want to tip their hands to other investors).
S&P 500 is now right where it was on April 4, 2024. A whole year of gains gone, all of it since Feb. 20 and most of it in the last two days.
posted by martin q blank at 9:37 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
We're talking US-style short-scale trillions, obviously, which is also what the UK has used when discussing economics since 1974. (My home country of Australia took a bit longer to come round, but not that much longer.)
[D'oh, naughty Grangousier! Never mind, the link is interesting enough to let stand.]
posted by rory at 9:38 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
[D'oh, naughty Grangousier! Never mind, the link is interesting enough to let stand.]
posted by rory at 9:38 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
hedge trickery that allows one to bet on increased market instability
In options trading there's a strategy called a straddle where you buy both a put and a call option on the same security.
It doesn't matter if the underlying security goes up or down, just that it makes a large move in either direction.
posted by yyz at 9:52 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
In options trading there's a strategy called a straddle where you buy both a put and a call option on the same security.
It doesn't matter if the underlying security goes up or down, just that it makes a large move in either direction.
posted by yyz at 9:52 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
I was going to make a joke about the Panic of 2025 and the return of old-timey financial calamities, but then I remembered the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was only two years ago (biggest bank run in history, $42B in one day).
posted by ryanrs at 9:56 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 9:56 AM on April 4 [2 favorites]
...are we now resurrecting prohibition-era submarine drone boats full of Nintendo consoles crossing the great lakes at night?
Newsweek: "Pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 have been delayed "in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs" imposed by President Donald Trump this week, Nintendo said in a statement to Newsweek on Friday.
The announcement comes after Trump placed high levies on Vietnam,where Nintendo has reportedly shifted much of its Switch production from China in recent years."
(am assuming this just applies to the USA)
posted by Wordshore at 9:56 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
Newsweek: "Pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 have been delayed "in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs" imposed by President Donald Trump this week, Nintendo said in a statement to Newsweek on Friday.
The announcement comes after Trump placed high levies on Vietnam,where Nintendo has reportedly shifted much of its Switch production from China in recent years."
(am assuming this just applies to the USA)
posted by Wordshore at 9:56 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
Most people don't have anything like that much to lose in the first place, so there must be some seriously hurting fat cats right now.
Not to minimize what's happening, but it's only a loss at the moment you sell the share. There's a possibility for some rebound, but it'll probably take time and a reversal of the current craziness, how does that happen without the US changing who's in charge is beyond me though.... might take a while.
The richs can maybe wait it out.
Pension funds and others investors that must maintain some kind of pre-determined risk ratios are probably the ones freaking the most because they might need to rebalances their portfolios while everything is down, the money their disbursing in the short/medium term is probably safe since it would already need to be in safer vehicles than stocks, but future growth stuff...
And you know who's money is in those?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 10:03 AM on April 4 [7 favorites]
Not to minimize what's happening, but it's only a loss at the moment you sell the share. There's a possibility for some rebound, but it'll probably take time and a reversal of the current craziness, how does that happen without the US changing who's in charge is beyond me though.... might take a while.
The richs can maybe wait it out.
Pension funds and others investors that must maintain some kind of pre-determined risk ratios are probably the ones freaking the most because they might need to rebalances their portfolios while everything is down, the money their disbursing in the short/medium term is probably safe since it would already need to be in safer vehicles than stocks, but future growth stuff...
And you know who's money is in those?
posted by WaterAndPixels at 10:03 AM on April 4 [7 favorites]
Senator Chris Murphy:
This week you will read many confused economists and political pundits who won’t understand how the tariffs make economic sense. That’s because they don’t. They aren’t designed as economic policy. ...
Our founders created a President with limited and checked powers. They specifically put the power of spending and taxation in the hands of the legislature. Why? Because they watched how kings and despots used spending and taxes to control their subjects. ... Our own revolution was spurred by the King’s use of heavy taxation of the colonies to punish our push for self governance. The King’s message was simple: stop protesting and I’ll stop taxing.
Trump knows that he can weaken (and maybe destroy) democracy by using spending and taxation in the same way. He is using access to government funds to bully universities, law firms and state and local governments into loyalty pledges. Healthy democracies rely on an independent legal profession to maintain the rule of law, independent universities to guard objective truth and provide forums for dissent to authority, and independent state/local government to counterbalance a powerful federal government.
But the private sector also plays a [role] to protect democracy. Independent industry has power. The tariffs are Trump’s tool to erode that independence. Now, one by one, every industry or company will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief. What could Trump demand as part of a quiet loyalty pledge? Public shows of support from executives for all his economic policy. Contributions to his political efforts. Promises to police employees’ support for his political opposition.
The tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship. Why? So that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears. And once Trump has the lawyers, colleges and industry under his thumb, it becomes very hard for the opposition to have any viable space to maneuver.
Trump didn’t invent this strategy. It’s the playbook for democratically elected leaders who want to stay in power forever.
posted by rory at 10:08 AM on April 4 [44 favorites]
This week you will read many confused economists and political pundits who won’t understand how the tariffs make economic sense. That’s because they don’t. They aren’t designed as economic policy. ...
Our founders created a President with limited and checked powers. They specifically put the power of spending and taxation in the hands of the legislature. Why? Because they watched how kings and despots used spending and taxes to control their subjects. ... Our own revolution was spurred by the King’s use of heavy taxation of the colonies to punish our push for self governance. The King’s message was simple: stop protesting and I’ll stop taxing.
Trump knows that he can weaken (and maybe destroy) democracy by using spending and taxation in the same way. He is using access to government funds to bully universities, law firms and state and local governments into loyalty pledges. Healthy democracies rely on an independent legal profession to maintain the rule of law, independent universities to guard objective truth and provide forums for dissent to authority, and independent state/local government to counterbalance a powerful federal government.
But the private sector also plays a [role] to protect democracy. Independent industry has power. The tariffs are Trump’s tool to erode that independence. Now, one by one, every industry or company will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief. What could Trump demand as part of a quiet loyalty pledge? Public shows of support from executives for all his economic policy. Contributions to his political efforts. Promises to police employees’ support for his political opposition.
The tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship. Why? So that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears. And once Trump has the lawyers, colleges and industry under his thumb, it becomes very hard for the opposition to have any viable space to maneuver.
Trump didn’t invent this strategy. It’s the playbook for democratically elected leaders who want to stay in power forever.
posted by rory at 10:08 AM on April 4 [44 favorites]
Plenty of Republicans in Congress must be looking at their E-trade and Fidelity accounts with some alarm. There are no billionaires in Congress.
posted by ryanrs at 10:10 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 10:10 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
So, Will Scharf and Steven Miller are different people? Man, that was confusing seeing an uncanny valley version of Miller over and over again!
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 10:11 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 10:11 AM on April 4 [1 favorite]
a Democrat could have seen this coming back in November.
Yep. This one liquidated most of his stock and mutual funds in January.
[Although I'm no longer a registered D - switched back to Independent the day after Election Day]
posted by Rash at 10:15 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
Yep. This one liquidated most of his stock and mutual funds in January.
[Although I'm no longer a registered D - switched back to Independent the day after Election Day]
posted by Rash at 10:15 AM on April 4 [3 favorites]
Pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 have been delayed "in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs" imposed by President Donald Trump this week, Nintendo said in a statement to Newsweek on Friday.
Trump take game.
posted by azarbayejani at 10:22 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
Trump take game.
posted by azarbayejani at 10:22 AM on April 4 [6 favorites]
So far the S&P 500 has done a sort of "dead cat bounce" off of the 5100 level. That's what's sometimes called a "support level": a lot of investors recently bought in around that point, and consider it "break-even". There's kind of a psychological resistance to admitting you need to take a loss on your original purchase, compared to just losing out on earlier opportunities to sell.
Once it breaks for a prolonged period of time, you can expect to see another panic rush, and the index will probably drop to another support level beneath that. These subsequent ones will be less coherent, and the overall level of panic could snowball. Or 5100 could hold, or there could be a rally before the support fails, or...or...or...
I think that we'll see real outrage from the professional investor class after 5100 fails. It seems like an opportunity for Democratic coalition-building.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:44 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
Once it breaks for a prolonged period of time, you can expect to see another panic rush, and the index will probably drop to another support level beneath that. These subsequent ones will be less coherent, and the overall level of panic could snowball. Or 5100 could hold, or there could be a rally before the support fails, or...or...or...
I think that we'll see real outrage from the professional investor class after 5100 fails. It seems like an opportunity for Democratic coalition-building.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:44 AM on April 4 [5 favorites]
I've lost all of my personal savings because of mental health stuff, but I'm still the head of a tiny charitable foundation. This all means we will have less money for the homeless, for single parents, for aid to Ukraine, etc.
Everything is bad.
posted by mumimor at 10:45 AM on April 4 [16 favorites]
Everything is bad.
posted by mumimor at 10:45 AM on April 4 [16 favorites]
The Washington Post has a sort of a tick-tock (gift link), an account of the days leading up to the announcement.
Not a lot of insidery detail but some illuminating stuff on the process: Basically, they had a lot of economist cook up tariff formulas, and Trump chose Navarro's simpleton method -- three hours before the announcement.
Story does a good job of pinning all of it on Trump, though, with this beauty of a quote:
Not a lot of insidery detail but some illuminating stuff on the process: Basically, they had a lot of economist cook up tariff formulas, and Trump chose Navarro's simpleton method -- three hours before the announcement.
Story does a good job of pinning all of it on Trump, though, with this beauty of a quote:
“He’s at the peak of just not giving a f--- anymore,” said a White House official with knowledge of Trump’s thinking. “Bad news stories? Doesn’t give a f---. He’s going to do what he’s going to do. He’s going to do what he promised to do on the campaign trail.”posted by martin q blank at 11:33 AM on April 4 [9 favorites]
so i am as previously stated a real dummy about this kind of thing, but is there a possibility that the plummeting omnishambles will become a burrowing catastrofuck when a bunch of the casino players get margin called into oblivion?
posted by Sperry Topsider at 11:38 AM on April 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Sperry Topsider at 11:38 AM on April 4 [4 favorites]
is there a possibility that the plummeting omnishambles will become a next-level catastrofuck when a bunch of the casino players get margin called into oblivion?
posted by Sperry Topsider at 2:38 PM
100%. This is introducing additional instability into a system that is still seeing many sectors experiencing ongoing impacts from COVID supply chain issues, inflationary issues and more. Not to mention the many, many Americans who felt the economy was not great during the election (despite the US doing very well, when compared to the rest of the globe, yes, many people were still economically impacted in an ongoing basis).
It’s not just margin calls, I think, but weaknesses that have been covered up by an historic stock market run, surprising ways companies will find their customers will respond and the grey swan of how global trade responds to changing dynamics in a tariff war. This is beyond dangerous and maniacal.
posted by glaucon at 11:46 AM on April 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Sperry Topsider at 2:38 PM
100%. This is introducing additional instability into a system that is still seeing many sectors experiencing ongoing impacts from COVID supply chain issues, inflationary issues and more. Not to mention the many, many Americans who felt the economy was not great during the election (despite the US doing very well, when compared to the rest of the globe, yes, many people were still economically impacted in an ongoing basis).
It’s not just margin calls, I think, but weaknesses that have been covered up by an historic stock market run, surprising ways companies will find their customers will respond and the grey swan of how global trade responds to changing dynamics in a tariff war. This is beyond dangerous and maniacal.
posted by glaucon at 11:46 AM on April 4 [4 favorites]
Uh-oh:
"A $2,300 Apple iPhone? Trump tariffs could make that happen."
"Why Trump’s Tariffs Are Rattling Even Meta"
"Nintendo delays Switch 2 preorders over tariff concerns"
posted by hankmajor at 12:03 PM on April 4 [2 favorites]
"A $2,300 Apple iPhone? Trump tariffs could make that happen."
"Why Trump’s Tariffs Are Rattling Even Meta"
"Nintendo delays Switch 2 preorders over tariff concerns"
posted by hankmajor at 12:03 PM on April 4 [2 favorites]
Dow Jones down 5% today. In 20 days, stocks will be free!
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:25 PM on April 4 [16 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:25 PM on April 4 [16 favorites]
how is tesla doing though, i guess the idea is that will be the only non-tariffed vehicle or something
posted by seanmpuckett at 12:38 PM on April 4 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 12:38 PM on April 4 [1 favorite]
Something to hammer: Nintendo delays American switch 2 preorders (assuming I read the articles on this right). The rest of the world proceeds normally.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:38 PM on April 4 [5 favorites]
posted by Slackermagee at 12:38 PM on April 4 [5 favorites]
Percentage-wise, TSLA lost twice as much as the S&P500 today.
posted by ryanrs at 12:43 PM on April 4 [11 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 12:43 PM on April 4 [11 favorites]
Dow Jones down 5% today. In 20 days, stocks will be free!
Liberated!
posted by mazola at 12:43 PM on April 4 [6 favorites]
Liberated!
posted by mazola at 12:43 PM on April 4 [6 favorites]
I never cared for that argument that it’s only a loss if you sell it. It’s still an asset. It still counts toward your net worth. Elon Musk isn’t the richest bastard in the world because he has the most cash. He has the stock that is worth the most, and as a result he can borrow unthinkable amounts of money against it.
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 1:01 PM on April 4 [14 favorites]
posted by The Monster at the End of this Thread at 1:01 PM on April 4 [14 favorites]
Basically, they had a lot of economist cook up tariff formulas, and Trump chose Navarro's simpleton method -- three hours before the announcement.
UPenn should revoke Trump's business degree for destroying more economic growth in two days than the rest of its business school graduates have probably managed to create in their lifetimes, combined.
posted by jedicus at 1:02 PM on April 4 [23 favorites]
UPenn should revoke Trump's business degree for destroying more economic growth in two days than the rest of its business school graduates have probably managed to create in their lifetimes, combined.
posted by jedicus at 1:02 PM on April 4 [23 favorites]
wait wait I've got it
this is all a 5D chess with time travel plan to get americans to meet paris agreement benchmarks by tricking them into reducing consumption
posted by The demon that lives in the air at 1:03 PM on April 4 [5 favorites]
this is all a 5D chess with time travel plan to get americans to meet paris agreement benchmarks by tricking them into reducing consumption
posted by The demon that lives in the air at 1:03 PM on April 4 [5 favorites]
America's Brexit.
posted by essexjan at 1:04 PM on April 4 [12 favorites]
posted by essexjan at 1:04 PM on April 4 [12 favorites]
Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy provides his analysis (Bluesky thread) (two minute video) of the President's actions this week.
posted by JDC8 at 1:40 PM on April 4 [3 favorites]
posted by JDC8 at 1:40 PM on April 4 [3 favorites]
I'm not saying I support a coup, but I am coup-curious. (jk, in case they come to round me up)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 2:46 PM on April 4 [4 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 2:46 PM on April 4 [4 favorites]
*Liz Truss furiously taking notes*
posted by saturday_morning at 3:18 PM on April 4 [5 favorites]
posted by saturday_morning at 3:18 PM on April 4 [5 favorites]
BTW, Costco is on the ‘good’ list, WRT the businesses we’re boycotting for DEI stuff.
I haven’t ever been, but expect to visit one this weekend after the protests.
About Trump’s McKinley fixation, I think he’s jealous that McKinley was on the $500 bill. We should get him on there before we need those bills to buy a loaf of bread.
posted by MtDewd at 5:47 PM on April 4 [3 favorites]
I haven’t ever been, but expect to visit one this weekend after the protests.
About Trump’s McKinley fixation, I think he’s jealous that McKinley was on the $500 bill. We should get him on there before we need those bills to buy a loaf of bread.
posted by MtDewd at 5:47 PM on April 4 [3 favorites]
UPenn should revoke Trump's business degree for destroying more economic growth in two days than the rest of its business school graduates have probably managed to create in their lifetimes, combined.
penn already took a big punishment hit for not stopping trans athletes. they might decide they can't afford another.
though if they ARE gonna start revoking degrees, mehmet oz is also a graduate.
posted by Clowder of bats at 7:28 PM on April 4 [3 favorites]
penn already took a big punishment hit for not stopping trans athletes. they might decide they can't afford another.
though if they ARE gonna start revoking degrees, mehmet oz is also a graduate.
posted by Clowder of bats at 7:28 PM on April 4 [3 favorites]
re: mckinley parallels...
The Triumph of Fear: Domestic Surveillance and Political Repression from McKinley to Eisenhower - "The book, excerpted below, examines the rise and expansion of surveillance-enabled political repression in America from the late 1890s to early 1961 and shows how this domestic spying has helped fuel federal assaults on free speech and association that continue to this day."
Billionaires Poised to Lose Near Half-Trillion Dollars in 2 Days - "The world's 500 richest people are seeing the biggest two-day loss ever recorded by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as fallout from President Donald Trump's tariff announcement continues to roil global markets."
posted by kliuless at 9:33 PM on April 4 [13 favorites]
The Triumph of Fear: Domestic Surveillance and Political Repression from McKinley to Eisenhower - "The book, excerpted below, examines the rise and expansion of surveillance-enabled political repression in America from the late 1890s to early 1961 and shows how this domestic spying has helped fuel federal assaults on free speech and association that continue to this day."
At the dawn of the twentieth century, the only two executive branch agencies routinely involved in domestic surveillance and related political repression were the Secret Service and the Postal Service, and the former—despite the relatively limited number of Secret Service agents—was far more active than the latter, which acted as a partner with the Treasury Department’s investigative arm when needed. Three related events changed that and put the United States on the path to creating a domestic surveillance and political repression apparatus that in time would rival those of its European neighbors.also btw...
The first event was the growth of the popularity of anarchist, socialist, and communist ideals among major segments of American labor and left-leaning political elites.
As noted in Chapter 1, at least as early as 1898, the Secret Service was monitoring anarchist political activists and labor organizers in places like Patterson, New Jersey, at the time a major hub of both immigrant labor and textile mills with generally deplorable working conditions. In the period between the Spanish-American War and President McKinley’s assassination, federal authorities had generally been content to keep an eye on key anarchist groups and leaders while leaving it to state and local authorities to deal with anarchist-inspired or led strikes and labor–business disputes, even when violent incidents occurred.
The second key event was McKinley’s assassination by the (likely mentally disturbed) recent anarchist convert Leon Czolgosz, which transformed the political and domestic security landscape.
Officials at the federal, state, and local levels went after known or suspected anarchists in communities across the country. During Roosevelt’s first abbreviated term as McKinley’s successor, the Secret Service intensified its surveillance of those deemed political radicals, and Congress passed the Anarchist Exclusion Act, which barred legal entry into the United States of anyone professing a belief in anarchism. Those measures failed to stamp out the appeal of anarchism, and its rival political philosophy, socialism, gained even more adherents during Roosevelt’s two terms in office.
Roosevelt’s subsequent efforts to employ the Secret Service and Postal Service against Socialist Party presidential candidate Eugene V. Debs and the socialist newspaper Appeal to Reason set additional, dangerous precedents that threatened the Bill of Rights. But it was the Roosevelt administration’s more widespread misuse of the Secret Service to engage in politically related investigations, and even prying into the marital affairs of a junior US Navy officer, that would trigger a confrontation with Congress that sparked Roosevelt’s unilateral expansion of federal domestic surveillance and the potential for widespread political repression in the decades that followed through the creation of the Bureau of Investigation.
The Navy Department’s use of a Secret Service agent to uncover Ensign Earl Pritchard’s extramarital affair in late 1907 generated a national uproar and a legislative backlash from Congress, which in April 1908 barred Secret Service agents from being used for anything other than presidential protection and capturing counterfeiters. When Roosevelt responded by instructing Attorney General Charles Bonaparte to create a cadre of investigators within the Justice Department itself, he did so despite the lack of any authorizing legislation allowing it. A precedent of presidential circumvention of a congressional ban on a surveillance activity or authority had been set, and it would be repeated by Roosevelt’s successors or their subordinates over the balance of the twentieth century.
The episode also marked one of the last times Congress would take decisive action to rein in presidential overreach on surveillance activities during the twentieth century. The decline of true, probing congressional oversight actions targeting the executive branch was the third key development that accelerated the rise and growth of the American surveillance state.
- Trump Is Replacing the Nanny State With a Daddy State - "The president is using the powers of his office in an aggressive, paternalistic way without precedent. Is an old form of intrusive government being replaced by a new one?" (Exclusive: Kushner's Abraham Accords institute to merge into Heritage Foundation)[1,2]
- Trump uses power against foes unlike any other modern US president - "His administration has sought the arrest and deportation of student protesters, withheld federal funds from colleges, ostracized law firms tied to his political opponents, threatened judges and tried to pressure journalists. At the same time Trump has downsized the federal government dramatically and purged it of workers who could stand in his way."[3]
- DOGE's access to the payroll system of 276,000 federal employees puts government on path to have 'unprecedented power and control' over Americans' information, experts say - "When senior IT personnel pushed back against the move, they were reportedly put on administrative leave; they are now reportedly under investigation for 'workplace behavior'... Over the past two and a half months, Musk's DOGE team has also gained access to the Internal Revenue Service, which stores bank account information and purchase itemizations, and the Social Security Administration, which houses individuals' lifetime wages and disability and citizenship status."[4,5]
- After tariff shock, Trump may weaponise finance against allies - "As the epicentre of the financial world and the issuer of the global reserve currency, the United States has a number of levers that Trump can pull to coerce other countries, from credit cards to the very provision of dollars to foreign banks." (Can Trump Arbitrarily Take Money From Anyone’s Bank Account?)[6]
- Scoop: Stephen Miller's Senate GOP marching orders - "Miller is essentially calling for more cavalry for President Trump's attacks on the judiciary, which has blocked some of the president's boldest, and most controversial, moves."
- Trump's Targeting of Law Firms Is Unconstitutional - "Cato has joined a broad coalition, led by the ACLU, to file an amicus brief supporting the law firm Perkins Coie as it defends itself against an unconstitutional executive order... The executive order is an unconstitutional attempt to punish Perkins Coie for its protected advocacy on behalf of its clients and to intimidate other law firms from challenging the administration or its officials. For these reasons, the federal district court should rule in favor of Perkins Coie and invalidate the order."[7,8,9]
- America Has Never Been Wealthier. Here's Why It Doesn't Feel That Way. - "A surge in U.S. wealth has been driven by stock and home values. But the gains are concentrated at the top, leaving others in a sour economic mood."
- Almost all wealth is owned by top 50% of Americans. Tax cuts may deepen divide, experts say. - "A recent snapshot of U.S. wealth from the Federal Reserve depicts a nation where the top 50% of households controls 97.5% of the country's assets — a lopsided distribution that experts say could accelerate if President Trump's tax cuts are extended and low- and middle-income Americans take a hit from his tariff barrage. While wealth inequality has always been part of American society, it's widened since the late 1980s, with the gains disproportionately flowing to the very wealthiest Americans, the Fed data shows. At the end of 2024, the top 1% of households owned 31% of the nation's assets, up from 23% in 1989, when the Fed data begins. Over that same period, the share owned by the bottom half slipped to 2.5% in 2024, down from 3.5% in 1989."
Billionaires Poised to Lose Near Half-Trillion Dollars in 2 Days - "The world's 500 richest people are seeing the biggest two-day loss ever recorded by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as fallout from President Donald Trump's tariff announcement continues to roil global markets."
posted by kliuless at 9:33 PM on April 4 [13 favorites]
I have not read this whole thread. I'm too busy arguing with bots on Youtube. I nevertheless find these DRUDGE REPORT headlines frighteningly succinct
STOCK MARKET HAS LOST $11 TRILLION SINCE INAUGURATION DAY...
WORST TWO-DAY WIPEOUT IN HISTORY!
When Do The Circuit Breakers Kick In?
Hedge funds hit with steep margin calls...
CNBC CRAMER WARNS 'CRASH'...
SAUDI FIRST: TRUMP FOCUSED ON GOLF DURING SPIRAL...
'He Doesn't Give a F**k'...
PAPER: Astonishing act of self-harm...
Conservative Group Tries to Stop Him in Court...
60% chance of a recession... MORE
Traders buying dips and getting burned...
USA hands China most golden opportunity...
posted by philip-random at 10:48 PM on April 4 [1 favorite]
STOCK MARKET HAS LOST $11 TRILLION SINCE INAUGURATION DAY...
WORST TWO-DAY WIPEOUT IN HISTORY!
When Do The Circuit Breakers Kick In?
Hedge funds hit with steep margin calls...
CNBC CRAMER WARNS 'CRASH'...
SAUDI FIRST: TRUMP FOCUSED ON GOLF DURING SPIRAL...
'He Doesn't Give a F**k'...
PAPER: Astonishing act of self-harm...
Conservative Group Tries to Stop Him in Court...
60% chance of a recession... MORE
Traders buying dips and getting burned...
USA hands China most golden opportunity...
posted by philip-random at 10:48 PM on April 4 [1 favorite]
The bald-faced lying about the calculations seems in keeping with the character of the Trump administration: they don't care what you think, so long as you submit. And I think part of the chaos and stupidity is performative: there's certainly money to be made in letting your opponents underestimate you, and that's the source of a lot of MAGA's joyful schadenfreude these days at the situation of the Left. But if one considers which pleases Trump more—money or power—I'm pretty sure it's money.
So—via chavenet's link—the prior post from lefty economist Yanis Varoufakis offers what is, to me, a compelling economic explanation for where the money is for Trump in destroying the global economy: the linked article is, to me, a remarkable thinking-through of the intersections of tariffs, money policy, and stablecoin.
https://unherd.com/2025/03/trumps-crypto-time-bomb/
TL;DR: Trump wants to cash in on cryptocurrency. It's the same as with DOGE, from Margaret Thatcher's privatization playbook: strip everything of value you can out of the government.
chavenet knows I'm a fan of Varoufakis. His first textbook is an excellent antidote to the standard neoclassical fare that Econ 101 students get, and his advanced textbook on Modern Political Economics is peerless, IMO.
posted by vitia at 10:49 PM on April 4 [4 favorites]
So—via chavenet's link—the prior post from lefty economist Yanis Varoufakis offers what is, to me, a compelling economic explanation for where the money is for Trump in destroying the global economy: the linked article is, to me, a remarkable thinking-through of the intersections of tariffs, money policy, and stablecoin.
https://unherd.com/2025/03/trumps-crypto-time-bomb/
TL;DR: Trump wants to cash in on cryptocurrency. It's the same as with DOGE, from Margaret Thatcher's privatization playbook: strip everything of value you can out of the government.
chavenet knows I'm a fan of Varoufakis. His first textbook is an excellent antidote to the standard neoclassical fare that Econ 101 students get, and his advanced textbook on Modern Political Economics is peerless, IMO.
posted by vitia at 10:49 PM on April 4 [4 favorites]
I never cared for that argument that it’s only a loss if you sell it. It’s still an asset.
Normally I would agree with this, it is still the same asset with the same income generating capability. But in this case the ability of these companies to generate a profit has been massively diluted and so no, they are not the same asset with the same income generating capability, not while these lunatics are in charge.
posted by Lanark at 1:51 AM on April 5 [1 favorite]
Normally I would agree with this, it is still the same asset with the same income generating capability. But in this case the ability of these companies to generate a profit has been massively diluted and so no, they are not the same asset with the same income generating capability, not while these lunatics are in charge.
posted by Lanark at 1:51 AM on April 5 [1 favorite]
>They think that because we buy more from Cambodia than they buy from us we are getting ripped off. It makes no sense.
The same with Canada. We buy a lot of food and manufactured goods from the US, and sell them a great deal more in (mainly) raw materials. However, Canada's population is 10% of the US- there is no way we could ever consume the same amounts of US goods as we export. It's simply not possible.
posted by TheWhiteSkull
Same in Australia. Our population is about 8% of the US, and our economy about 15 times smaller. Not the remotest possibility that we can achieve a trade balance with the US. Unless the US drastically cuts buying stuff from us.
Besides, almost all our trade is closer to home, with China and Japan alone accounting for nearly half. The US only accounts for 6%. Very difficult for them to hurt us economically.
What the US is really gunning for with these tariffs on us is our high bio-standards for imports, and our single payer pharmaceutical scheme that does an excellent job of keeping drug maker's profits at a reasonable level.
posted by Pouteria at 3:47 AM on April 5 [7 favorites]
The same with Canada. We buy a lot of food and manufactured goods from the US, and sell them a great deal more in (mainly) raw materials. However, Canada's population is 10% of the US- there is no way we could ever consume the same amounts of US goods as we export. It's simply not possible.
posted by TheWhiteSkull
Same in Australia. Our population is about 8% of the US, and our economy about 15 times smaller. Not the remotest possibility that we can achieve a trade balance with the US. Unless the US drastically cuts buying stuff from us.
Besides, almost all our trade is closer to home, with China and Japan alone accounting for nearly half. The US only accounts for 6%. Very difficult for them to hurt us economically.
What the US is really gunning for with these tariffs on us is our high bio-standards for imports, and our single payer pharmaceutical scheme that does an excellent job of keeping drug maker's profits at a reasonable level.
posted by Pouteria at 3:47 AM on April 5 [7 favorites]
Also none of this stuff deals well with 3-way trade - country A sends more to country B than it receives, B sends more to C, C sends more to A - but overall each country comes out equally.
As I've mentioned about this sort of stuff comes out in the wash in the long run if you let currencies float - you get twice the bang for your buck if you devalue your currency, imports get more expensive (just like with a tariff), but your exports bring in more money, this is what you do if you want to help manufacturing. Tariffs on the other hand are great if your main goal is to tax someone so you can give billionaires tax cuts
posted by mbo at 4:00 AM on April 5 [4 favorites]
As I've mentioned about this sort of stuff comes out in the wash in the long run if you let currencies float - you get twice the bang for your buck if you devalue your currency, imports get more expensive (just like with a tariff), but your exports bring in more money, this is what you do if you want to help manufacturing. Tariffs on the other hand are great if your main goal is to tax someone so you can give billionaires tax cuts
posted by mbo at 4:00 AM on April 5 [4 favorites]
The most infamous 3-way trade of course being the Iran Contra scandal.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:02 AM on April 5 [5 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:02 AM on April 5 [5 favorites]
Not the most important thing but this is the week to me that Fox News went from “right wing propaganda nutters channel” to “Hey - why is Baghdad Bob from the Iraqi Ministry of Information on TV again?”.
The fact that there is literally not one mention of the stock market in any form on their front page right now. Maybe they have gone beyond Baghdad Bob at this point? At least he acknowledged that there was fighting going on.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 5:07 AM on April 5 [3 favorites]
The fact that there is literally not one mention of the stock market in any form on their front page right now. Maybe they have gone beyond Baghdad Bob at this point? At least he acknowledged that there was fighting going on.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 5:07 AM on April 5 [3 favorites]
California to Negotiate Trade With Other Countries to Bypass Trump Tariffs
posted by cendawanita at 6:10 AM on April 5 [8 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 6:10 AM on April 5 [8 favorites]
When do we start pecking out random strings of characters
More and more, it's like any coherent sentence dignifies this predicament with a lucidity it hardly deserves
posted by ginger.beef at 7:49 AM on April 5 [4 favorites]
More and more, it's like any coherent sentence dignifies this predicament with a lucidity it hardly deserves
posted by ginger.beef at 7:49 AM on April 5 [4 favorites]
The way Trump thinks is based on his almost pathological need to acquire goods and services at zero cost to himself. He seems to believe that if you buy something that you have to pay for rather than getting it for free, then in some way you've been ripped off. He doesn't seem to understand the concept of a mutually beneficial transaction where you've paid a reasonable price for something, the seller has received fair value for the goods or services they've provided you with, and you're pleased with your purchase because you now have the thing you wanted. In Trump's mind, he would only feel satisfaction if the transaction costs the seller more than he's had to pay, making him the 'winner'.
And the idea that America is suddenly going to start building all these factories and resume (or begin) manufacturing everything it needs is so stupid that it beggars belief. For a start, this would take years, and large businesses aren't going to invest $$$$ in long-term factory-building projects when, in four years' time, the tariffs might be removed anyway. As well as that, the raw materials to build said factories are more than likely to come from overseas and be subject to tariffs, making the whole exercise economically unviable.
As for small businesses, well, we all know Trump doesn't care about them. I just hope that the billionaires take such a hit that they start to squeal.
posted by essexjan at 7:54 AM on April 5 [9 favorites]
And the idea that America is suddenly going to start building all these factories and resume (or begin) manufacturing everything it needs is so stupid that it beggars belief. For a start, this would take years, and large businesses aren't going to invest $$$$ in long-term factory-building projects when, in four years' time, the tariffs might be removed anyway. As well as that, the raw materials to build said factories are more than likely to come from overseas and be subject to tariffs, making the whole exercise economically unviable.
As for small businesses, well, we all know Trump doesn't care about them. I just hope that the billionaires take such a hit that they start to squeal.
posted by essexjan at 7:54 AM on April 5 [9 favorites]
The billionaires will make money regardless, because they make money by buying low and selling high or buying the right to sell high before buying low. They're not dependent on bull markets the way everyday workers are.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:04 AM on April 5 [4 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 9:04 AM on April 5 [4 favorites]
Do they really not know that the reason the US is able to maintain such long term trade imbalances is because the rest of the world has plenty of demand for US dollars and US financial instruments? Matt Levine said it much better than I can:
posted by ssg at 9:41 AM on April 5 [8 favorites]
We give them entries in computer databases, they give us back food and clothing: That is a magical deal for us!As a non-American, I don't really like this situation and think US overconsumption enabled by the export of those database entries is environmentally disastrous, but from a MAGA perspective isn't this basically what they want? Screwing over the people you are doing business with and getting more for the US is the pretty much the stated aim. Why would you do anything to mess that up? I know stupidity and greed is the answer, but this just feels like such an incredibly obvious own goal.
posted by ssg at 9:41 AM on April 5 [8 favorites]
And the idea that MAGAs would want there to be more relatively low-wage manufacturing jobs in the US is also very strange when they are very upset about huge numbers of people crossing deserts on foot and paying smugglers large sums in order to come to the US and fill the existing low-wage jobs. I can't imagine how more US manufacturing is not going to lead to more demand for labour, which is going to mean more people crossing the border to fill that demand.
posted by ssg at 9:57 AM on April 5 [3 favorites]
posted by ssg at 9:57 AM on April 5 [3 favorites]
So it turns out that not only is the economic theory behind the tariff rates discredited nonsense, it also makes a math error that quadruples the rate on every country.
From that well-known bastion of radical far-left thought, the American Enterprise Institute: President Trump’s Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It’s Also Based on an Error.
From that well-known bastion of radical far-left thought, the American Enterprise Institute: President Trump’s Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It’s Also Based on an Error.
Though in effect the formula for the tariff placed on the United States by another country is equal to the trade deficit divided by imports, the formula published by the Office of the US Trade Representative has two additional terms in the denominator that just so happen to cancel out: (1) the elasticity of import demand with respect to import prices, ε, and (2) the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ.posted by Rhaomi at 10:03 AM on April 5 [16 favorites]
The idea is that as tariffs rise, the change in the trade deficit will depend on the responsiveness of import demand to tariffs, which depends on how import demand responds to import prices and how import prices respond to tariffs. The Trump Administration assumes an elasticity of import demand with respect to import prices of four, and an elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs of 0.25, the product of which is one and is the reason they cancel out in the Administration’s formula.
However, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs should be about one (actually 0.945), not 0.25 as the Trump Administration states. Their mistake is that they base the elasticity on the response of retail prices to tariffs, as opposed to import prices as they should have done. The article they cite by Alberto Cavallo and his coauthors makes this distinction clear. The authors state that “tariffs [are] passed through almost fully to US import prices,” while finding “more mixed evidence regarding retail price increases.” It is inconsistent to multiply the elasticity of import demand with respect to import prices by the elasticity of retail prices with respect to tariffs.
Correcting the Trump Administration’s error would reduce the tariffs assumed to be applied by each country to the United States to about a fourth of their stated level, and as a result, cut the tariffs announced by President Trump on Wednesday by the same fraction, subject to the 10 percent tariff floor. As shown in Table 1, the tariff rate would not exceed 14 percent for any country. For all but a few countries, the tariff would be exactly 10 percent, the floor imposed by the Trump Administration.
We've just record-scratched billions of dollars in medical aid to the poorest countries on earth - clinics closing, treatment stopped, programs evaporated, and now we've slapped 30-50%+ tarrifs on them as well.
which will drive their economies to their knees; it's not like e.g. lesotho can suddenly increase their importing from the US 50x.
Hundreds of thousands of people will DIE in the next few years directly because of this ridiculous cartoon-gangster view of the world.
My loathing for these fascist fucks keeps on finding new depths.
posted by lalochezia at 10:37 AM on April 5 [14 favorites]
which will drive their economies to their knees; it's not like e.g. lesotho can suddenly increase their importing from the US 50x.
Hundreds of thousands of people will DIE in the next few years directly because of this ridiculous cartoon-gangster view of the world.
My loathing for these fascist fucks keeps on finding new depths.
posted by lalochezia at 10:37 AM on April 5 [14 favorites]
People are looking the wrong way on the tariffs. IT IS NOT ABOUT ECONOMIC POLICY. It is about setting up a system wherein the president can bring tremendous pressure to bear on individual businesses, industries, and countries. It is in essence a protection racket, giving The Orange Russian tremendous power to extract monye/resources and or inflict suffering wherever he sees fit. You think he gives any fucks about the well being of the common man? Why would he create economic policy to benefit them? Mark my words. Protection racket.
posted by jcworth at 10:47 AM on April 5 [12 favorites]
posted by jcworth at 10:47 AM on April 5 [12 favorites]
Special: Can tariffs make you rich? with Ha-Joon Chang (Gary's Economics, YouTube, 10m10s)
tl;dv: Yes, but not the way TFG is going about it, and not in a financial environment like the US where any increased profits that might accrue from giving local industries a price advantage will not be invested in filling in the yawning gaps in local support ecosystems but will instead simply be hoovered up by already-massively-wealthy owners.
Gary points out that TFG has no ideology beyond doing whatever he thinks will make him look good and/or enrich him personally, and that he is therefore likely to wind back this whole insane exercise as it becomes undeniable that it's tanking the US economy.
I think that's a misread. I think TFG does have an ideology, viz. that he can do no wrong. From which it follows that when things do go wrong (a) they're actually going great (b) if you think they're not, that's because the Fake News Media is reporting them wrong (c) the fix is to double down and push the same line even harder.
I cannot recall TFG ever once admitting that he'd got something wrong. Can you?
posted by flabdablet at 11:04 AM on April 5 [6 favorites]
tl;dv: Yes, but not the way TFG is going about it, and not in a financial environment like the US where any increased profits that might accrue from giving local industries a price advantage will not be invested in filling in the yawning gaps in local support ecosystems but will instead simply be hoovered up by already-massively-wealthy owners.
Gary points out that TFG has no ideology beyond doing whatever he thinks will make him look good and/or enrich him personally, and that he is therefore likely to wind back this whole insane exercise as it becomes undeniable that it's tanking the US economy.
I think that's a misread. I think TFG does have an ideology, viz. that he can do no wrong. From which it follows that when things do go wrong (a) they're actually going great (b) if you think they're not, that's because the Fake News Media is reporting them wrong (c) the fix is to double down and push the same line even harder.
I cannot recall TFG ever once admitting that he'd got something wrong. Can you?
posted by flabdablet at 11:04 AM on April 5 [6 favorites]
My issue is that this is not the strategic deployment of tariffs to ensure the existence of an equal playing field for domestic versus importers that will allow the existence of a some amount of domestic capability. It's just a shakedown meant to force other countries to visit the new king of America and kiss his ring. It is also forcing domestic producers to do the same. Everyone in the world is now a beggar asking for indulgences.
posted by srboisvert at 11:27 AM on April 5 [3 favorites]
FAKE MATH
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 1:49 PM on April 5 [4 favorites]
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 1:49 PM on April 5 [4 favorites]
Everyone in the world is now a beggar asking for indulgences.
or a rebel against what was the pax americana- that's dead - trump has slit its throat and tossed the body into the dark alley known as history
he's insured that china will fight a trade war with the us, joined by many others
he's forgotten that the key to the american empire wasn't just making other countries kiss his ring but to give them a piece of the action and the opportunity to run their own affairs in a way where they could imitate the success of the u s
he's also forgotten the nuclear option - not our nuclear option but the rest of the world's - they can dump u s treasuries and create a calamity for us while they lose their shirts on whatever deal they make doing so - but trump isn't the only world actor bent on revenge at whatever cost to themselves
he's also ensured that few countries will come to his assistance when he starts war with iran - and he will
posted by pyramid termite at 2:42 PM on April 5 [8 favorites]
or a rebel against what was the pax americana- that's dead - trump has slit its throat and tossed the body into the dark alley known as history
he's insured that china will fight a trade war with the us, joined by many others
he's forgotten that the key to the american empire wasn't just making other countries kiss his ring but to give them a piece of the action and the opportunity to run their own affairs in a way where they could imitate the success of the u s
he's also forgotten the nuclear option - not our nuclear option but the rest of the world's - they can dump u s treasuries and create a calamity for us while they lose their shirts on whatever deal they make doing so - but trump isn't the only world actor bent on revenge at whatever cost to themselves
he's also ensured that few countries will come to his assistance when he starts war with iran - and he will
posted by pyramid termite at 2:42 PM on April 5 [8 favorites]
The RoW will act deliberately and in a careful fashion, the supertanker of a national economy can't just do a hand brake turn. There may be some tactical acquiescence to buy time but new trading relationships are being, and will be, formed and America will slowly but surely be routed around. Canada has a huge problem but the EU would probably take as much lumber as they wanted to export. China, Japan, ASEAN and the EU must all be comparing diaries right now, I'll bet tourism to the USA falls off a cliff and I'd be surprised if anyone apart from Russia and Israel was negotiating to buy US military hardware.
posted by epo at 7:33 AM on April 6 [4 favorites]
posted by epo at 7:33 AM on April 6 [4 favorites]
the idea that MAGAs would want there to be more relatively low-wage manufacturing jobs in the US is also very strange when they are very upset about huge numbers of people crossing deserts on foot and paying smugglers large sums in order to come to the US and fill the existing low-wage jobs. I can't imagine how more US manufacturing is not going to lead to more demand for labour, which is going to mean more people crossing the border to fill that demand.
It's not about low-wage, but mid-wage manufacturing jobs. Low wage jobs are available (and even plentiful) in the fields and hospitality (AKA housekeeping). These are traditionally filled by immigrants from south of the border. The US factory jobs that were all migrated overseas, mostly to China, used to be filled by high school graduates. Now that type of blue-collar worker has had to adapt by switching to some low-level white-collar profession or by going into the trades, for which many, it's too late to start an apprenticeship, and given no other choice, they wind up working in fast-food or retail.
posted by Rash at 9:17 AM on April 6
It's not about low-wage, but mid-wage manufacturing jobs. Low wage jobs are available (and even plentiful) in the fields and hospitality (AKA housekeeping). These are traditionally filled by immigrants from south of the border. The US factory jobs that were all migrated overseas, mostly to China, used to be filled by high school graduates. Now that type of blue-collar worker has had to adapt by switching to some low-level white-collar profession or by going into the trades, for which many, it's too late to start an apprenticeship, and given no other choice, they wind up working in fast-food or retail.
posted by Rash at 9:17 AM on April 6
EU would probably take as much lumber as they wanted to export.
I hadn't thought about that, but it is more true than you can imagine. Traditionally, Europe has used much more concrete and brick construction than the US, even for single-family homes. But now I'm seeing timber construction everywhere, even for office buildings. Not because of tariffs, but because of the green transition. People are already worrying about the supply, so this is like a construction industry bonanza. Specially if the Canadians can deliver processed parts that adhere to European standards.
posted by mumimor at 10:24 AM on April 6 [4 favorites]
I hadn't thought about that, but it is more true than you can imagine. Traditionally, Europe has used much more concrete and brick construction than the US, even for single-family homes. But now I'm seeing timber construction everywhere, even for office buildings. Not because of tariffs, but because of the green transition. People are already worrying about the supply, so this is like a construction industry bonanza. Specially if the Canadians can deliver processed parts that adhere to European standards.
posted by mumimor at 10:24 AM on April 6 [4 favorites]
It's not about low-wage, but mid-wage manufacturing jobs.
It's not 1955 anymore though. In 1955, you could run a lathe or other machine tools and make a reasonably middle-class income. That's not how the world works anymore, not because of where the manufacturing takes place, but because that kind of manufacturing is only a small part of what we do now, on a global scale.
And on the other side, even with a 50% tariff on a low-wage country, if US workers cost 5x as much, then moving manufacturing to the US won't make sense. So the pay would have to be low in the US or there won't be any jobs. Or we'll see a lot more automation, which provides a few jobs for engineers, but not many for high school graduates.
The reality is that the post-war economic conditions in the US were exceptional in many ways and tariffs are not going to bring them back, no matter how much people want them to.
posted by ssg at 10:54 AM on April 6 [9 favorites]
It's not 1955 anymore though. In 1955, you could run a lathe or other machine tools and make a reasonably middle-class income. That's not how the world works anymore, not because of where the manufacturing takes place, but because that kind of manufacturing is only a small part of what we do now, on a global scale.
And on the other side, even with a 50% tariff on a low-wage country, if US workers cost 5x as much, then moving manufacturing to the US won't make sense. So the pay would have to be low in the US or there won't be any jobs. Or we'll see a lot more automation, which provides a few jobs for engineers, but not many for high school graduates.
The reality is that the post-war economic conditions in the US were exceptional in many ways and tariffs are not going to bring them back, no matter how much people want them to.
posted by ssg at 10:54 AM on April 6 [9 favorites]
It's not 1955 anymore though.
Nope, and the people who worked in the auto industry in 1955 are most likely dead now, or at least very old and pensioned. So this thing about "bringing back" jobs is rubbish. It's a lie that is meant to conceal the fact that the richest 5% have increasingly screwed over the rest of America since the 1980s, more than in most other countries and certainly more than in most democracies. (The UK is almost at the same level of insane capitalistic overreach, hence Brexit).
posted by mumimor at 11:03 AM on April 6 [6 favorites]
Nope, and the people who worked in the auto industry in 1955 are most likely dead now, or at least very old and pensioned. So this thing about "bringing back" jobs is rubbish. It's a lie that is meant to conceal the fact that the richest 5% have increasingly screwed over the rest of America since the 1980s, more than in most other countries and certainly more than in most democracies. (The UK is almost at the same level of insane capitalistic overreach, hence Brexit).
posted by mumimor at 11:03 AM on April 6 [6 favorites]
EU would probably take as much lumber as they wanted to export.
We've been cutting far too much for far too long in Canada and we just don't have the forests to cut any more. Environmentally, the situation is pretty awful, but even just logistically the trees aren't there. Lumber production is declining and will continue to decline. Big logging companies are moving production to the US South where softwood plantations grow very quickly. It would probably be a good first step to simply stop exporting to the US entirely (we still have plenty of domestic demand and existing exports to Asia, which is a lot closer than Europe to where most of our lumber comes from).
We do already ship wood pellets to be burned to make electricity in England, which is incredibly stupid.
posted by ssg at 11:04 AM on April 6 [6 favorites]
We've been cutting far too much for far too long in Canada and we just don't have the forests to cut any more. Environmentally, the situation is pretty awful, but even just logistically the trees aren't there. Lumber production is declining and will continue to decline. Big logging companies are moving production to the US South where softwood plantations grow very quickly. It would probably be a good first step to simply stop exporting to the US entirely (we still have plenty of domestic demand and existing exports to Asia, which is a lot closer than Europe to where most of our lumber comes from).
We do already ship wood pellets to be burned to make electricity in England, which is incredibly stupid.
posted by ssg at 11:04 AM on April 6 [6 favorites]
Big logging companies are moving production to the US South
they just announced on Friday that they are going to open up logging on 100 million acres of land out west, including California
Map here
All because of the wildfires , yeah that's it the wildfires.
Friday April 4
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins issued a Secretarial Memo to establish an “Emergency Situation Determination” on 112,646,000 acres of National Forestry System (NFS) land .
This Memo will also spur immediate action from the U.S. Forest Service directing field leadership to increase timber outputs, simplify permitting, remove National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) processes,
As part of these decisive actions, the agency also canceled two mineral leasing withdrawals on Forest Service land that will help boost production of critical minerals.
posted by yyz at 1:14 PM on April 6 [2 favorites]
they just announced on Friday that they are going to open up logging on 100 million acres of land out west, including California
Map here
All because of the wildfires , yeah that's it the wildfires.
Friday April 4
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins issued a Secretarial Memo to establish an “Emergency Situation Determination” on 112,646,000 acres of National Forestry System (NFS) land .
This Memo will also spur immediate action from the U.S. Forest Service directing field leadership to increase timber outputs, simplify permitting, remove National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) processes,
As part of these decisive actions, the agency also canceled two mineral leasing withdrawals on Forest Service land that will help boost production of critical minerals.
posted by yyz at 1:14 PM on April 6 [2 favorites]
we just don't have the forests to cut any more
I thought I read that one of the tariff exemptions was Canadian lumber for construction. I assumed it was a major trade item and the US was keen to get it, if so, all the sweeter to ship it elsewhere.
Here in the UK, the cost of wood and therefore some related builder's costs have gone up hugely in the past few years.
As an aside, about ten years ago there was a block of retirement flats being built just down the road, after a week or so they filled a skip (dumpster) with 8' x 10" x 1/2" sawn lengths of shelving wood. After asking permission we took the car and liberated enough to line 2 walls of a large garage with 5 rows of shelves. ("Did it tidy the garage?" You may ask. "Don't be so effin' stupid!" I would reply. But we now have a multi level cluttered garage utilising what is probably a few hundred quid's worth of timber at todays prices.)
posted by epo at 1:21 PM on April 6 [5 favorites]
I thought I read that one of the tariff exemptions was Canadian lumber for construction. I assumed it was a major trade item and the US was keen to get it, if so, all the sweeter to ship it elsewhere.
Here in the UK, the cost of wood and therefore some related builder's costs have gone up hugely in the past few years.
As an aside, about ten years ago there was a block of retirement flats being built just down the road, after a week or so they filled a skip (dumpster) with 8' x 10" x 1/2" sawn lengths of shelving wood. After asking permission we took the car and liberated enough to line 2 walls of a large garage with 5 rows of shelves. ("Did it tidy the garage?" You may ask. "Don't be so effin' stupid!" I would reply. But we now have a multi level cluttered garage utilising what is probably a few hundred quid's worth of timber at todays prices.)
posted by epo at 1:21 PM on April 6 [5 favorites]
one of the tariff exemptions was Canadian lumber for construction
Softwood lumber has always been a sore point . Even before Trump.
What the Americans considered a subsidy was that our stumpage fees. (the royalty a lumber company pays to the province ) is lower than the American stumpage fees.
Rather than lowering their stumpage fee they claim unfair.
Presently
'The U.S. is set to more than double the duty it charges on softwood lumber imports from Canada, with the planned new rate set at 34.45 per cent, up from the previous 14.54 per cent. '
This will certainly increase construction costs.
.
posted by yyz at 1:52 PM on April 6 [1 favorite]
Softwood lumber has always been a sore point . Even before Trump.
What the Americans considered a subsidy was that our stumpage fees. (the royalty a lumber company pays to the province ) is lower than the American stumpage fees.
Rather than lowering their stumpage fee they claim unfair.
Presently
'The U.S. is set to more than double the duty it charges on softwood lumber imports from Canada, with the planned new rate set at 34.45 per cent, up from the previous 14.54 per cent. '
This will certainly increase construction costs.
.
posted by yyz at 1:52 PM on April 6 [1 favorite]
It's none of the Americans' business in this case, but our stumpage fees in BC are definitely too low!
Also a lot of the lumber in the US comes off private land, while most of it in western Canada comes from public land, so there's just an entirely different cost structure.
posted by ssg at 2:00 PM on April 6 [4 favorites]
Also a lot of the lumber in the US comes off private land, while most of it in western Canada comes from public land, so there's just an entirely different cost structure.
posted by ssg at 2:00 PM on April 6 [4 favorites]
It's none of the Americans' business
Correct.
It's not even Ottawa's.
It's not federal, it's a provincial responsibility.
And the provinces are very jealous of their rights.
Provinces would and do fight pitched battles with Ottawa, and each other, over Natural Resources
Here's a long boring read about the Canada–United States softwood lumber dispute ongoing since 1982
posted by yyz at 2:27 PM on April 6 [4 favorites]
Correct.
It's not even Ottawa's.
It's not federal, it's a provincial responsibility.
And the provinces are very jealous of their rights.
Provinces would and do fight pitched battles with Ottawa, and each other, over Natural Resources
Here's a long boring read about the Canada–United States softwood lumber dispute ongoing since 1982
posted by yyz at 2:27 PM on April 6 [4 favorites]
I forget what podcast it was, but they gave Lesotho as an example of how dumb this is. The US has a massive trade deficit with Lesotho because we buy a lot of diamonds from them. Of course that’s from *companies* there. The relatively poor *people* there have no ability to purchase a bunch of US goods in return, and American companies aren’t that interested in developing markets for their goods there by and large. So … Lesotho’s diamonds get much more expensive for Americans. Silly.
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:26 PM on April 6 [4 favorites]
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:26 PM on April 6 [4 favorites]
I forget what podcast it was, but they gave Lesotho as an example of how dumb this is.
I heard this specific example on The 1A's weekly news roundup.
posted by uphc at 3:47 PM on April 6
I heard this specific example on The 1A's weekly news roundup.
posted by uphc at 3:47 PM on April 6
China Just Turned Off U.S. Supplies Of Minerals Critical For Defense & Cleantech
In April 2025, while most of the world was clutching pearls over trade war tit-for-tat tariffs, China calmly walked over to the supply chain and yanked out a handful of critical bolts. The bolts are made of dysprosium, terbium, tungsten, indium and yttrium—the elements that don’t make headlines but without which your electric car doesn’t run, your fighter jet doesn’t fly, and your solar panels go from clean energy marvels to overpriced roofing tiles. They’re minerals that show up on obscure government risk registers right before wars start or cleantech projects get quietly cancelled.
I’ve been on a bit of a critical minerals kick recently, starting to understand more about them and their roles in our economy. In addition to reading a lot of books and debunking some doomerist nonsense on the subject, I had the privilege of spending 90 minutes with Gavin Mudd, director of the critical minerals intelligence centre at the British Geological Survey, recently for Redefining Energy–Tech, talking about them, the West’s remarkable treatment of them as not critical for the past 40 years, and how hard it is for the West to actually rebuild capacity in the space (part 1, part 2). China’s actions led to me going deeper. I’ve also spent a fair amount of time talking to and following Lyle Trytten, the Nickel Nerd, whose career of engineering extraction and processing of minerals spans the globe.
What China did wasn’t a ban, at least not in name. They called it export licensing. Sounds like something a trade lawyer might actually be excited about. But make no mistake: this was a surgical strike. They didn’t need to say no. They just needed to say “maybe later” to the right set of paperwork. These licenses give Beijing control over not just where these materials go, but how fast they go, in what quantity, and to which politically convenient customers.
posted by cendawanita at 8:30 PM on April 6 [12 favorites]
In April 2025, while most of the world was clutching pearls over trade war tit-for-tat tariffs, China calmly walked over to the supply chain and yanked out a handful of critical bolts. The bolts are made of dysprosium, terbium, tungsten, indium and yttrium—the elements that don’t make headlines but without which your electric car doesn’t run, your fighter jet doesn’t fly, and your solar panels go from clean energy marvels to overpriced roofing tiles. They’re minerals that show up on obscure government risk registers right before wars start or cleantech projects get quietly cancelled.
I’ve been on a bit of a critical minerals kick recently, starting to understand more about them and their roles in our economy. In addition to reading a lot of books and debunking some doomerist nonsense on the subject, I had the privilege of spending 90 minutes with Gavin Mudd, director of the critical minerals intelligence centre at the British Geological Survey, recently for Redefining Energy–Tech, talking about them, the West’s remarkable treatment of them as not critical for the past 40 years, and how hard it is for the West to actually rebuild capacity in the space (part 1, part 2). China’s actions led to me going deeper. I’ve also spent a fair amount of time talking to and following Lyle Trytten, the Nickel Nerd, whose career of engineering extraction and processing of minerals spans the globe.
What China did wasn’t a ban, at least not in name. They called it export licensing. Sounds like something a trade lawyer might actually be excited about. But make no mistake: this was a surgical strike. They didn’t need to say no. They just needed to say “maybe later” to the right set of paperwork. These licenses give Beijing control over not just where these materials go, but how fast they go, in what quantity, and to which politically convenient customers.
posted by cendawanita at 8:30 PM on April 6 [12 favorites]
Most of the world's supply of those minerals does indeed come from China at present, but that's not because rare earths are in any way rare or even expensive. It's because China has never made any attempt to avoid the pollution caused by refining them in the cheapest way possible, and has therefore been able to undercut any supplier with actual environmental standards for a very long time. Matt Bevan explains.
posted by flabdablet at 1:30 AM on April 7 [12 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 1:30 AM on April 7 [12 favorites]
Matt Parker (Stand-up Maths): Explaining the Trump Tariff Equation
So reassuring to learn that the Very Stable Genius responsible for all this has about as deep an understanding of economics as of medicine.
posted by flabdablet at 1:59 AM on April 7 [3 favorites]
So reassuring to learn that the Very Stable Genius responsible for all this has about as deep an understanding of economics as of medicine.
posted by flabdablet at 1:59 AM on April 7 [3 favorites]
Imposing the tariffs will change the number of imports (and probably exports) between a country and the US .... which will directly change the stupid equation .... will the tariffs be automatically changing yearly? (monthly? daily?) probably not - they're a meaningless blunt club
posted by mbo at 2:49 AM on April 7 [2 favorites]
posted by mbo at 2:49 AM on April 7 [2 favorites]
how is tesla doing though, i guess the idea is that will be the only non-tariffed vehicle or something
They don't source 100% of their parts and materials from the U.S. Also, they doing bad.
posted by Selena777 at 12:11 PM on April 7 [2 favorites]
They don't source 100% of their parts and materials from the U.S. Also, they doing bad.
posted by Selena777 at 12:11 PM on April 7 [2 favorites]
What if other countries negotiated ‘good’ agreements to remove tariffs and then never really followed through on the implementation part, or delayed implementation because they’re so unfair.
Surely he would respect that, no?
posted by mazola at 5:17 PM on April 7 [3 favorites]
Surely he would respect that, no?
posted by mazola at 5:17 PM on April 7 [3 favorites]
Koch And Leo Sue Trump to Stop tariffs
Alien vs predator, etc.
posted by lalochezia at 6:39 PM on April 7 [5 favorites]
Alien vs predator, etc.
posted by lalochezia at 6:39 PM on April 7 [5 favorites]
Koch And Leo Sue Trump to Stop tariffs
Hell, I'll take it.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:15 PM on April 7 [1 favorite]
Hell, I'll take it.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:15 PM on April 7 [1 favorite]
For your nerd friends who want to understand Trump's tariffs, there is now an xkcd for that.
posted by gwint at 8:46 PM on April 7 [12 favorites]
posted by gwint at 8:46 PM on April 7 [12 favorites]
Koch And Leo Sue Trump to Stop tariffs
There's a kind of morbid fascination in watching US oligarchs discover that their own faces are just as tasty as anybody else's and that neofeudalism works the same way regardless of whether it's in the US or Russia.
TFG is not going to fold on tariffs because he can't afford to fold. The oligarchs that installed him still own far more tangible assets than he does, and he knows it. He also knows, just as Putin does, that being in a position to be selective about protecting asset ownership is worth more than mere numbers in ledgers.
All TFG's eggs are in the strongman basket. He's not about to break them by dropping it just because rich fucks he's always envied are asking him to.
posted by flabdablet at 12:21 AM on April 8 [2 favorites]
There's a kind of morbid fascination in watching US oligarchs discover that their own faces are just as tasty as anybody else's and that neofeudalism works the same way regardless of whether it's in the US or Russia.
TFG is not going to fold on tariffs because he can't afford to fold. The oligarchs that installed him still own far more tangible assets than he does, and he knows it. He also knows, just as Putin does, that being in a position to be selective about protecting asset ownership is worth more than mere numbers in ledgers.
All TFG's eggs are in the strongman basket. He's not about to break them by dropping it just because rich fucks he's always envied are asking him to.
posted by flabdablet at 12:21 AM on April 8 [2 favorites]
This LRB article had some interesting historical analysis: Trump's Hammer (archive)
Economists looking to understand the likely impact of the latest round of Trump tariffs have done what economists tend to do: reached for the averages. Take the tariff rates for all the different countries, weight the average by how much the US imports from those countries, reach a percentage and plot it on a graph to show the historical trend line. The result of this procedure – that the average trade-weighted US tariff rate is set to return to where it was around 1909 – makes for an arresting statistic. But it’s also a strangely comforting one, suggesting that we’ve been here before.posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:46 AM on April 8 [8 favorites]
Yet tariffs looked nothing like this in 1909 – not in the US, not anywhere. They were organised primarily according to the goods they were levied on, not the states they were directed against... National tariffs involved very, very long tables of commodities and the taxes levied on them: sometimes by percentage, sometimes with specific sums of money per a given corn bushel, beer barrel or iron rod. They were periodically revised in set-piece legislative debates, accompanied by acres of highly informed press coverage, furious debates among economists, and blue-ribbon commissions of officials and businessmen...
With Trump, there’s no baseline. The US has declared a universal trade war. Not by means of a new and more protective national tariff created through intricate legislative deliberation, but by a sweeping presidential assertion of economic emergency. Everybody is discriminating against the United States, Trump says, and always has been. The president’s power to respond is, consequently, unlimited. Nineteenth-century tariff levels are being implemented with the beefed-up trade powers of the 21st century’s imperial presidency. The US effectively doesn’t have a single national tariff anymore; it has something closer to 180 – one for nearly every jurisdiction in the world.
So this thing about "bringing back" jobs is rubbish.
Well, there are precedents. A devastated Germany and Japan in 1945 sprang back in about ten years (largely aided by the US aid and eliminating tariffs). China opened under Deng in the 1980s and became a manufacturing power house in short order, again, aided by most favored nation vis a vis the US.
Arguably, there comes a time when giving the other guy a leg up becomes self-destructive. Rust Belt is a post WW2 phrase. Supply chain disruption a covid era phrase. What next? Couldn't say. Economics not my wheelhouse. But I get a sense that when push comes to shove, a country that can make things is better off than one that does not.
posted by BWA at 5:40 AM on April 8
Well, there are precedents. A devastated Germany and Japan in 1945 sprang back in about ten years (largely aided by the US aid and eliminating tariffs). China opened under Deng in the 1980s and became a manufacturing power house in short order, again, aided by most favored nation vis a vis the US.
Arguably, there comes a time when giving the other guy a leg up becomes self-destructive. Rust Belt is a post WW2 phrase. Supply chain disruption a covid era phrase. What next? Couldn't say. Economics not my wheelhouse. But I get a sense that when push comes to shove, a country that can make things is better off than one that does not.
posted by BWA at 5:40 AM on April 8
But I get a sense that when push comes to shove, a country that can make things is better off than one that does not.
Absolutely. What's rubbish is the "bringing back". Nothing will be like it was before. Germany and Japan were succesfull because they didn't rebuild, they new-built, using the at-the-time most modern technologies from the US. I've mentioned before how I once visited two furniture factories, one in Tennessee, one in Funen, Denmark, and was completely shocked by the US factory which looked like something from the 19th century because in the US there was enough underpaid labor to keep doing everything manually. The Danish factory was fully automated and had ten employees during the same work as hundreds in the US version. BTW I think the entire production is now in Poland and Malaysia.
In the US, there are some structural things that make it possible to keep on doing things in very labor-intensive ways. One of them is illegal immigration, another is prison labor. Both function a lot like slavery.
posted by mumimor at 6:10 AM on April 8 [7 favorites]
Absolutely. What's rubbish is the "bringing back". Nothing will be like it was before. Germany and Japan were succesfull because they didn't rebuild, they new-built, using the at-the-time most modern technologies from the US. I've mentioned before how I once visited two furniture factories, one in Tennessee, one in Funen, Denmark, and was completely shocked by the US factory which looked like something from the 19th century because in the US there was enough underpaid labor to keep doing everything manually. The Danish factory was fully automated and had ten employees during the same work as hundreds in the US version. BTW I think the entire production is now in Poland and Malaysia.
In the US, there are some structural things that make it possible to keep on doing things in very labor-intensive ways. One of them is illegal immigration, another is prison labor. Both function a lot like slavery.
posted by mumimor at 6:10 AM on April 8 [7 favorites]
a country that can make things is better off than one that does not.
It's ridiculous to suggest that the US doesn't currently "make things". They make movies and software and cloud services and payment systems, as well as a host of other stuff like cars, airplanes etc etc. Intellectual property is a "thing". The economic/political problem the US has is that fewer middle-class workers are required to make all the things, so economically the worker classes are not reaping the benefits; those are mostly going to the "invester" class. And any reshored manufacturing will be automated up the hoop, so far fewer workers will be employed, and those will mostly be low wage immigrants.
There was tremendous logical and economic sense in having friendly relations with most countries, and pursuing trade and outsourcing activities where there was mutual advantage. Not perfect of course... but the current tariff A-bombs, and pissing off your international friends, are better?
posted by Artful Codger at 9:26 AM on April 8 [7 favorites]
It's ridiculous to suggest that the US doesn't currently "make things". They make movies and software and cloud services and payment systems, as well as a host of other stuff like cars, airplanes etc etc. Intellectual property is a "thing". The economic/political problem the US has is that fewer middle-class workers are required to make all the things, so economically the worker classes are not reaping the benefits; those are mostly going to the "invester" class. And any reshored manufacturing will be automated up the hoop, so far fewer workers will be employed, and those will mostly be low wage immigrants.
There was tremendous logical and economic sense in having friendly relations with most countries, and pursuing trade and outsourcing activities where there was mutual advantage. Not perfect of course... but the current tariff A-bombs, and pissing off your international friends, are better?
posted by Artful Codger at 9:26 AM on April 8 [7 favorites]
CNN: Tariffs on China set to rise to at least 104% on Wednesday, White House says
The markets went back into the negative on the news, unsurprisingly. I’m not sure there are words left for how stupid and destructive this is.
posted by jedicus at 12:05 PM on April 8 [2 favorites]
The markets went back into the negative on the news, unsurprisingly. I’m not sure there are words left for how stupid and destructive this is.
posted by jedicus at 12:05 PM on April 8 [2 favorites]
There's still words left, but all the ten cent ones are now ten dollars.
posted by pwnguin at 1:05 PM on April 8 [2 favorites]
posted by pwnguin at 1:05 PM on April 8 [2 favorites]
a country that can make things is better off than one that does not.
The US still makes stuff, and a lot of it, too. We are the second-largest manufacturing country in the world, producing 2.5 trillion dollars of output in 2021.
Here's a pdf of the 2023 annual report from The National Institute of Standards and Technology, part of the US Department of Commerce, that breaks things down further - we are actually number 1 in some sectors of manufacturing. China produces about 30% of the world's goods, we provide around 17%, and everyone else, including Germany, Japan, and South Korea, is in the single digit percentages.
And if I'm reading this 2022 report from the US Department of Commerce, Office of the Undersecretary For Economic Affairs right - What Is Made In America (pdf) - some 70% of what we manufacture is made with stuff we also make.
So all this "the US doesn't make things anymore" is often just blatant horseshit propaganda from the right wing culture wars.
Here's the difference - in 1979 (our peak), manufacturing employed 19.6 million people, about 22% percent of the workforce. By 2019 it had dropped to 12.8 million people which was only 9% of the workforce. Beyond The Numbers, a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There are multiple complex reasons why this happened, and this decline certainly caused lots of economic pain and suffering for individuals and areas of the country (*waves from Cleveland, Ohio, heart of the Rust Belt*). But we still make stuff, we just don't have as many people making a good living out of it.
And maybe we never really did have all that many people making a living from it - see above re: 22% of the workforce. All this tariff crap is predicated on this conservative fantasy that the 1950s & 60s was like 3/4 of the workforce being Manly White Men who went someplace with big machines and banged on things with hammers for 10 hours a day and then took that money and went home to their wives who didn't have to work and their 2.5 children and bought houses and a new car every three years and went on trips to Florida and Disneyland and had oodles of money saved up to retire on, or even actual pensions.
But as Jessica Calarco, UW-M professor of sociology, points out in this MSNBC opinion piece:
"In reality, their parents and grandparents had that life because of unions, pensions, high marginal tax rates, and strong social policies — with a little post-war exceptionalism and a lot of racism and sexism thrown in."
And hoo boy, conservatives and Trump are not fans of unions and high marginal tax rates and strong social policies, although they're certainly down with the racism and sexism.
So, yeah, "bringing back" is rubbish.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:52 PM on April 8 [19 favorites]
The US still makes stuff, and a lot of it, too. We are the second-largest manufacturing country in the world, producing 2.5 trillion dollars of output in 2021.
Here's a pdf of the 2023 annual report from The National Institute of Standards and Technology, part of the US Department of Commerce, that breaks things down further - we are actually number 1 in some sectors of manufacturing. China produces about 30% of the world's goods, we provide around 17%, and everyone else, including Germany, Japan, and South Korea, is in the single digit percentages.
And if I'm reading this 2022 report from the US Department of Commerce, Office of the Undersecretary For Economic Affairs right - What Is Made In America (pdf) - some 70% of what we manufacture is made with stuff we also make.
So all this "the US doesn't make things anymore" is often just blatant horseshit propaganda from the right wing culture wars.
Here's the difference - in 1979 (our peak), manufacturing employed 19.6 million people, about 22% percent of the workforce. By 2019 it had dropped to 12.8 million people which was only 9% of the workforce. Beyond The Numbers, a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There are multiple complex reasons why this happened, and this decline certainly caused lots of economic pain and suffering for individuals and areas of the country (*waves from Cleveland, Ohio, heart of the Rust Belt*). But we still make stuff, we just don't have as many people making a good living out of it.
And maybe we never really did have all that many people making a living from it - see above re: 22% of the workforce. All this tariff crap is predicated on this conservative fantasy that the 1950s & 60s was like 3/4 of the workforce being Manly White Men who went someplace with big machines and banged on things with hammers for 10 hours a day and then took that money and went home to their wives who didn't have to work and their 2.5 children and bought houses and a new car every three years and went on trips to Florida and Disneyland and had oodles of money saved up to retire on, or even actual pensions.
But as Jessica Calarco, UW-M professor of sociology, points out in this MSNBC opinion piece:
"In reality, their parents and grandparents had that life because of unions, pensions, high marginal tax rates, and strong social policies — with a little post-war exceptionalism and a lot of racism and sexism thrown in."
And hoo boy, conservatives and Trump are not fans of unions and high marginal tax rates and strong social policies, although they're certainly down with the racism and sexism.
So, yeah, "bringing back" is rubbish.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:52 PM on April 8 [19 favorites]
Forgot the plentiful oil back then too. Definitely can't bring that back
Otherwise, solid argument
posted by JoeXIII007 at 4:58 PM on April 8 [1 favorite]
Otherwise, solid argument
posted by JoeXIII007 at 4:58 PM on April 8 [1 favorite]
Might I offer some comedy in these trying times (background: some Malaysian guy I keep seeing, but his shorts are fun because he switches languages well):
- If SEA had a phone call with US after tariff rates
- China, Japan, and South Korea having the alliance meeting be like (on that note: China, Japan, South Korea meet in Kuala Lumpur likely to discuss US tariffs, countermeasures
- Asian countries trading amidst the trade war be like
posted by cendawanita at 5:07 PM on April 8 [7 favorites]
- If SEA had a phone call with US after tariff rates
- China, Japan, and South Korea having the alliance meeting be like (on that note: China, Japan, South Korea meet in Kuala Lumpur likely to discuss US tariffs, countermeasures
- Asian countries trading amidst the trade war be like
posted by cendawanita at 5:07 PM on April 8 [7 favorites]
Forgot the plentiful oil back then too. Definitely can't bring that back
It's funny that we mythologize the 1955 as a time when energy flowed freely, but in fact US gasoline consumption per capita is higher now than it was in 1955. Plus now there's much more electricity and plenty of very cheap natural gas.
Cheap gas especially is a huge boon for all kinds of manufacturing and industry.
This idea plays right into the MAGA drill, baby, drill mentality.
posted by ssg at 8:16 PM on April 8 [3 favorites]
It's funny that we mythologize the 1955 as a time when energy flowed freely, but in fact US gasoline consumption per capita is higher now than it was in 1955. Plus now there's much more electricity and plenty of very cheap natural gas.
Cheap gas especially is a huge boon for all kinds of manufacturing and industry.
This idea plays right into the MAGA drill, baby, drill mentality.
posted by ssg at 8:16 PM on April 8 [3 favorites]
"If the US truly wants to talk, it should let people see that they're ready to treat others with equality, respect and mutual benefit. If the US decides not to care about the interests of the US itself, China and the rest of the world, and is determined to fight a tariff and trade war, China's response will continue to the end," Lin said.(article in the Global Times)
posted by adrienneleigh at 8:23 PM on April 8
Apple has been flying cargo planes full of iPhones into the US ahead of the tariffs (Times of India Tech Desk).
posted by mbrubeck at 9:26 PM on April 8
posted by mbrubeck at 9:26 PM on April 8
No idea how China will respond to the 104% tariff. It might just be too bonkers for them to want to replicate.
By a curious coincidence, 13% of China's exports go to the US, and 13% of US imports come from China. It's quite an even match: I think a lot of economics papers are going to be written about this experiment if it goes ahead.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:20 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
By a curious coincidence, 13% of China's exports go to the US, and 13% of US imports come from China. It's quite an even match: I think a lot of economics papers are going to be written about this experiment if it goes ahead.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:20 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
3/4 of the workforce being Manly White Men who went someplace with big machines and banged on things with hammers for 10 hours a day
I too have fond memories of cutting code on an ASR-33.
posted by flabdablet at 1:24 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
I too have fond memories of cutting code on an ASR-33.
posted by flabdablet at 1:24 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
Aside from Koch and Leo suing Trump, r/LeopardsAteMyFace has your 401(k) schadenfreude.
posted by jeffburdges at 5:20 AM on April 9
posted by jeffburdges at 5:20 AM on April 9
Apple has been flying cargo planes full of iPhones into the US ahead of the tariffs
So how is this going to pan out for the RoW? Apple in the UK is a British registered company which runs the retail outlets and which (I presume) imports UK compatible stock directly from the Chinese factories. Presumably we are unaffected by the current Chinese/American dispute.
Could US-based companies import stuff from China to, say, Ireland and then export from Ireland to the US?
posted by epo at 5:28 AM on April 9
So how is this going to pan out for the RoW? Apple in the UK is a British registered company which runs the retail outlets and which (I presume) imports UK compatible stock directly from the Chinese factories. Presumably we are unaffected by the current Chinese/American dispute.
Could US-based companies import stuff from China to, say, Ireland and then export from Ireland to the US?
posted by epo at 5:28 AM on April 9
Unless there is some sort of value add that kind of dodge generally doesn't work. Besides Ireland is in the 20% bracket itself.
posted by Mitheral at 6:00 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 6:00 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
Dear Rest of the World,
Please don’t negotiate. China won’t, and that alone will sink the US economy. If you make some side deal it’ll only support the administration’s resolve and drag things out. Very bad, very quickly will be better than very bad and long and drawn out. Note that any exogenous shock to the US will be devastating- if there’s a broad measles out break, we’ll be back to COVID like chaos. Anything you can do to make the current administration look ineffective will pay off when/if sanity returns to the Congress.
Best regards,
—-
I feel terrible for everyone about to lose their jobs because the GOP decided to shoot us all in the foot economically, but we saw this coming and told you to get off the couch and vote. I’m trying to “pace the rage” but enough already.
posted by Farce_First at 6:26 AM on April 9 [3 favorites]
Please don’t negotiate. China won’t, and that alone will sink the US economy. If you make some side deal it’ll only support the administration’s resolve and drag things out. Very bad, very quickly will be better than very bad and long and drawn out. Note that any exogenous shock to the US will be devastating- if there’s a broad measles out break, we’ll be back to COVID like chaos. Anything you can do to make the current administration look ineffective will pay off when/if sanity returns to the Congress.
Best regards,
—-
I feel terrible for everyone about to lose their jobs because the GOP decided to shoot us all in the foot economically, but we saw this coming and told you to get off the couch and vote. I’m trying to “pace the rage” but enough already.
posted by Farce_First at 6:26 AM on April 9 [3 favorites]
Well shipping iPhones through the Heard Island and McDonald Islands is out :(
posted by mazola at 6:27 AM on April 9 [2 favorites]
posted by mazola at 6:27 AM on April 9 [2 favorites]
Dear Rest of the World,
Please don’t negotiate…
I agree. It would be best for this to be quickly shown as the stupid and destructive 'plan' that it is. Unmistakably. Undeniably. And hang it all on TFG and his circle.
posted by mazola at 6:30 AM on April 9 [4 favorites]
Please don’t negotiate…
I agree. It would be best for this to be quickly shown as the stupid and destructive 'plan' that it is. Unmistakably. Undeniably. And hang it all on TFG and his circle.
posted by mazola at 6:30 AM on April 9 [4 favorites]
China slaps 84% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to Trump
- Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China will rise to 84% from 34% starting April 10, according to a translation of a Office of the Tariff Commission of the State Council announcement.
- The hike comes in response to the latest U.S. tariff increase on Chinese goods to more than 100% that began at midnight.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business “this escalation is a loser” for China.
posted by cendawanita at 7:08 AM on April 9 [4 favorites]
- Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China will rise to 84% from 34% starting April 10, according to a translation of a Office of the Tariff Commission of the State Council announcement.
- The hike comes in response to the latest U.S. tariff increase on Chinese goods to more than 100% that began at midnight.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business “this escalation is a loser” for China.
posted by cendawanita at 7:08 AM on April 9 [4 favorites]
oh my god
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:17 AM on April 9 [3 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:17 AM on April 9 [3 favorites]
Koch and Leo suing Trump
The next time the wealithy and powerful act all ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ about poverty, guns, health care, or whatever, this is your reminder that when the wealthy and powerful want shit done in society, shit gets done in society.
(Although even they may not be able to do anything about Trump's tariffs.)
posted by Rykey at 7:41 AM on April 9 [2 favorites]
The next time the wealithy and powerful act all ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ about poverty, guns, health care, or whatever, this is your reminder that when the wealthy and powerful want shit done in society, shit gets done in society.
(Although even they may not be able to do anything about Trump's tariffs.)
posted by Rykey at 7:41 AM on April 9 [2 favorites]
Rand Paul Fears Trump Tariffs Could Mean 1930s-Style Republican Wipeout: ‘We Lost the House and Senate for 60 Years’
Imho, Rand Paul has little to worry about imediately, because the neoliberal Democrats would always adjust their policies for maximum exploitation while winning only half the time, plus the first-past-the-poast type-party system should keep the parties the same.
At a higher level, a series of revolutions must occur eventually because of elite overproduction. Trump is the first one, maybe premature or not, maybe next libertarians like Koch & Paul primary & remove Trump loyalists, but that's not the end game.
At least historically, a resolution occurs only once fewer elites exist. At that stage, Rand Paul's prediction would seemingly come true, ala fewer billionaires and multi-millionaries, along with fewer credentialed elites, millitary, etc.
posted by jeffburdges at 7:49 AM on April 9 [2 favorites]
Imho, Rand Paul has little to worry about imediately, because the neoliberal Democrats would always adjust their policies for maximum exploitation while winning only half the time, plus the first-past-the-poast type-party system should keep the parties the same.
At a higher level, a series of revolutions must occur eventually because of elite overproduction. Trump is the first one, maybe premature or not, maybe next libertarians like Koch & Paul primary & remove Trump loyalists, but that's not the end game.
At least historically, a resolution occurs only once fewer elites exist. At that stage, Rand Paul's prediction would seemingly come true, ala fewer billionaires and multi-millionaries, along with fewer credentialed elites, millitary, etc.
posted by jeffburdges at 7:49 AM on April 9 [2 favorites]
A bit more reporting on China's latest move:
China has called for the world to unite against Trump's tariffs as the country's exporters reel from the crippling new levies.
"Global unity can triumph over trade tyranny," declared an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily, noting Beijing's collaborations with Japan, South Korea and other Asian economies.
A separate piece called for the European Union to work with it to "uphold free trade and multilateralism".
Beijing "firmly opposes and will never accept such hegemonic and bullying practices," foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters on Wednesday.
The tariffs come at a difficult time for China's sluggish economy: domestic consumption remains weak and exports are still a major driver of growth.
The sweeping nature of Trump's tariffs has also left Chinese businesses scrambling to adjust their supply chains - with most countries affected, firms say it's hard to find a way out of this uncertainty.
Also:
Markets fell further after China retaliated.
European shares extended their losses. Oil prices plunged to even deeper four-year lows and US stock index futures fell sharply.
As it announced its new tariffs, China’s finance ministry said in a statement: “The US escalation of tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which seriously infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests and seriously undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system.”
Beijing also imposed restrictions on 18 US companies, mostly in defence-related industries, adding to the 60 or so American firms punished over Trump’s tariffs.
(...) Earlier on Wednesday, China called its trade surplus with the United States an inevitability and warned it had the “determination and means” to continue the fight if Trump kept hitting Chinese goods.
China’s currency has faced heavy downward pressure, with the offshore yuan at record lows due to the tariffs. But sources told Reuters the central bank has asked major state-owned banks to reduce US dollar purchases and would not allow sharp yuan declines.
(...) European Union countries were expected to approve later on Wednesday the bloc’s first countermeasures against Trump’s tariff barrage on Wednesday, joining China and Canada in pushing back.
The European Commission, which coordinates EU trade policy, has proposed extra duties, mostly of 25 per cent, on US imports ranging from motorcycles, poultry, fruit, wood, and clothing to dental floss, according to a document seen by Reuters.
They are to enter into force in stages
posted by cendawanita at 7:52 AM on April 9 [4 favorites]
China has called for the world to unite against Trump's tariffs as the country's exporters reel from the crippling new levies.
"Global unity can triumph over trade tyranny," declared an editorial in the state-run newspaper China Daily, noting Beijing's collaborations with Japan, South Korea and other Asian economies.
A separate piece called for the European Union to work with it to "uphold free trade and multilateralism".
Beijing "firmly opposes and will never accept such hegemonic and bullying practices," foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters on Wednesday.
The tariffs come at a difficult time for China's sluggish economy: domestic consumption remains weak and exports are still a major driver of growth.
The sweeping nature of Trump's tariffs has also left Chinese businesses scrambling to adjust their supply chains - with most countries affected, firms say it's hard to find a way out of this uncertainty.
Also:
Markets fell further after China retaliated.
European shares extended their losses. Oil prices plunged to even deeper four-year lows and US stock index futures fell sharply.
As it announced its new tariffs, China’s finance ministry said in a statement: “The US escalation of tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake, which seriously infringes on China’s legitimate rights and interests and seriously undermines the rules-based multilateral trading system.”
Beijing also imposed restrictions on 18 US companies, mostly in defence-related industries, adding to the 60 or so American firms punished over Trump’s tariffs.
(...) Earlier on Wednesday, China called its trade surplus with the United States an inevitability and warned it had the “determination and means” to continue the fight if Trump kept hitting Chinese goods.
China’s currency has faced heavy downward pressure, with the offshore yuan at record lows due to the tariffs. But sources told Reuters the central bank has asked major state-owned banks to reduce US dollar purchases and would not allow sharp yuan declines.
(...) European Union countries were expected to approve later on Wednesday the bloc’s first countermeasures against Trump’s tariff barrage on Wednesday, joining China and Canada in pushing back.
The European Commission, which coordinates EU trade policy, has proposed extra duties, mostly of 25 per cent, on US imports ranging from motorcycles, poultry, fruit, wood, and clothing to dental floss, according to a document seen by Reuters.
They are to enter into force in stages
posted by cendawanita at 7:52 AM on April 9 [4 favorites]
Aaaand Trump backed down like the spineless tool he is. I wonder who in his orbit bought call options knowing this was coming. Don’t you feel richer now?
If I’m a company thinking of investing, certainty is the name of the game. Which we won’t get until this administration is gone.
posted by Farce_First at 10:42 AM on April 9 [6 favorites]
If I’m a company thinking of investing, certainty is the name of the game. Which we won’t get until this administration is gone.
posted by Farce_First at 10:42 AM on April 9 [6 favorites]
At this point, how many times did he back down? Can we now please call him yellow instead of orange?
posted by jeffburdges at 11:20 AM on April 9
posted by jeffburdges at 11:20 AM on April 9
a week from now:
- trump teases dropping the china tariffs
- trump and musk take short positions
- trump turns universal tariffs back on
Essentially, he enjoys watching everyone panic because he deliberately keeps pausing tariffs and then starting it all back up again. This keeps him in the news cycle constantly. Meanwhile, everyone has emotional and financial whiplash. Only fools would heave a sigh of relief because relief ain't coming. You've just been a 90 day reprieve before it all starts up again.
posted by Kitteh at 11:37 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
posted by Kitteh at 11:37 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
As much as I loathe having to pay this kind of attention to these kinds of people, I don't think this was a clever plan, because Bessent abruptly dipped out on a talk he was supposed to give for a sudden meeting at the White House right before all this broke. My feeling is that after everything really started to melt down last night, they changed tracks. Because if there was a clever plan, why have an abrupt change to Bessent's schedule? It so pointlessly makes Trump look weak and inconsistent because it's the kind of thing you can't keep out of the press and is easy to avoid.
posted by Frowner at 11:41 AM on April 9 [5 favorites]
posted by Frowner at 11:41 AM on April 9 [5 favorites]
He didn't really back down though: he raised tariffs on China again. I think 2020 will seem like a normal year compared to 2025.
posted by netowl at 11:43 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
posted by netowl at 11:43 AM on April 9 [1 favorite]
> essentially, he enjoys watching everyone panic because he deliberately keeps pausing tariffs and then starting it all back up again.
he enjoys making a metric shitload of money. if he does this a few more times he’ll be an actual billionaire.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 11:43 AM on April 9 [3 favorites]
he enjoys making a metric shitload of money. if he does this a few more times he’ll be an actual billionaire.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 11:43 AM on April 9 [3 favorites]
Aaaand Trump backed down like the spineless tool he is
I don't see a backdown, I just see TFG running the same kind of market manipulation that Musk ran a while back on dogecoin, but this time on a far grander scale. In fact I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that it was Musk who pointed out to him that he was now in a position to do exactly this.
If the massive market volatility of the last few days hasn't made bank for TFG's own businesses and those of his relatives I will be astonished. Money doesn't disappear, it only changes hands, and those trillions that have been wiped off global stock price valuations have to end up somewhere. Somebody has been buying this dip or there wouldn't have been a dip, and if a substantial percentage of that somebody doesn't turn out to have been TFG and his cutouts then the world really doesn't work the slightest bit like I thought.
a 90 day reprieve before it all starts up again
Expect an announcement that tariffs are back on again in well under ninety days. Insider trading is really fun, and I don't believe he has the patience to wait that long before running the next round of crash for cash. He'll probably wait only as long as it takes for markets to rebound to levels near what they were at just before Take Liberties Day.
posted by flabdablet at 11:51 AM on April 9 [5 favorites]
I don't see a backdown, I just see TFG running the same kind of market manipulation that Musk ran a while back on dogecoin, but this time on a far grander scale. In fact I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that it was Musk who pointed out to him that he was now in a position to do exactly this.
If the massive market volatility of the last few days hasn't made bank for TFG's own businesses and those of his relatives I will be astonished. Money doesn't disappear, it only changes hands, and those trillions that have been wiped off global stock price valuations have to end up somewhere. Somebody has been buying this dip or there wouldn't have been a dip, and if a substantial percentage of that somebody doesn't turn out to have been TFG and his cutouts then the world really doesn't work the slightest bit like I thought.
a 90 day reprieve before it all starts up again
Expect an announcement that tariffs are back on again in well under ninety days. Insider trading is really fun, and I don't believe he has the patience to wait that long before running the next round of crash for cash. He'll probably wait only as long as it takes for markets to rebound to levels near what they were at just before Take Liberties Day.
posted by flabdablet at 11:51 AM on April 9 [5 favorites]
It wasn't the stock market tanking that caused Trump to blink, it was the bond market tanking in tandem with stocks, which is... not supposed to happen, unless the world started to doubt the dollar. We were getting so close to a perfect storm that he was forced to back down, at least temporarily.
That of course does not mean there wasn't also market manipulation in the form of a few whispers to friends an hour before the announcement.
posted by gwint at 11:58 AM on April 9 [8 favorites]
That of course does not mean there wasn't also market manipulation in the form of a few whispers to friends an hour before the announcement.
posted by gwint at 11:58 AM on April 9 [8 favorites]
In particular, I do not believe that this latest move is a response to pressure from the likes of Koch and Leo. The idea of letting anybody else tell TFG what he must do is anathema.
posted by flabdablet at 12:00 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 12:00 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
and those trillions that have been wiped off global stock price valuations have to end up somewhere.
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but yes they did disappear and they did reappear.
Simplified hypothetical....there's 100 shares valued at 1$, valuation is 100$, company has good news, one owner sells 10 shares at 2$, valuation is now 200$, 10$ of new money got into the company valuation, that's 90$ that appeared out of thin air. Good news ends up being shit, new investor bugs out, sells at 0.5$, new investor loses 15$, company valuation is now 50$, 150$ disappeared, but in reality it didn't go anywhere.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 12:07 PM on April 9 [1 favorite]
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but yes they did disappear and they did reappear.
Simplified hypothetical....there's 100 shares valued at 1$, valuation is 100$, company has good news, one owner sells 10 shares at 2$, valuation is now 200$, 10$ of new money got into the company valuation, that's 90$ that appeared out of thin air. Good news ends up being shit, new investor bugs out, sells at 0.5$, new investor loses 15$, company valuation is now 50$, 150$ disappeared, but in reality it didn't go anywhere.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 12:07 PM on April 9 [1 favorite]
Money doesn't disappear, it only changes hands
... no, it can actually disappear. There's no immutable "conservation of value" law here. Despite a rally now, it will take months maybe to get back to January prices. Trust and confidence will take longer. Money has disappeared.
And yes I do think pressure was applied. If enough of his inner circle are pleading for him to back off, with good estimates of the coming hell if he doesn't relent...
I just love the spinning now. "Treasury secretary insists pause on new tariffs was Trump's strategy all along" [CNN]
If I rolled my eyes now, I'd hurt myself. God, I hope that every one of those words exiting his mouth tasted exactly like the shit they are.
posted by Artful Codger at 12:11 PM on April 9 [5 favorites]
... no, it can actually disappear. There's no immutable "conservation of value" law here. Despite a rally now, it will take months maybe to get back to January prices. Trust and confidence will take longer. Money has disappeared.
And yes I do think pressure was applied. If enough of his inner circle are pleading for him to back off, with good estimates of the coming hell if he doesn't relent...
I just love the spinning now. "Treasury secretary insists pause on new tariffs was Trump's strategy all along" [CNN]
If I rolled my eyes now, I'd hurt myself. God, I hope that every one of those words exiting his mouth tasted exactly like the shit they are.
posted by Artful Codger at 12:11 PM on April 9 [5 favorites]
He didn't really back down though: he raised tariffs on China again.
…and put a new 10% tariff on Canada and Mexico (?!)
posted by mazola at 12:12 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
…and put a new 10% tariff on Canada and Mexico (?!)
posted by mazola at 12:12 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
money is so weird that it can get destroyed without actually getting destroyed. all it has to do is stop moving.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 12:16 PM on April 9
posted by Sperry Topsider at 12:16 PM on April 9
This is just blatant market manipulation after all, isn't it? Plus he gets to be the centre of attention. This is all so stupid.
posted by mazola at 12:19 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
posted by mazola at 12:19 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
Somebody grab the White House phone log for today, before it's deleted, and match it up to suspicious trading.
posted by Artful Codger at 12:22 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
posted by Artful Codger at 12:22 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
While Trump remains President, we'll see Jordan Belfort pardoned and appointed to run the SEC before any insider trading by members of the administration, their family, or their patrons are investigated.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:34 PM on April 9
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:34 PM on April 9
It's like watching a cat spectacularly fail to make some feat of athleticism then try to style it out. "What? That's exactly what I meant to do!"
posted by deeker at 12:36 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
posted by deeker at 12:36 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
How long until he starts a war and then tries to back out from it the next day?
posted by paper chromatographologist at 12:42 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
posted by paper chromatographologist at 12:42 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
Money doesn't disappear, it only changes hands, and those trillions that have been wiped off global stock price valuations have to end up somewhere.
Just to be clear, that statement is not really correct, because stocks aren't money. When Stock Prices Drop, Where Is the Money?
posted by gwint at 12:55 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
Just to be clear, that statement is not really correct, because stocks aren't money. When Stock Prices Drop, Where Is the Money?
posted by gwint at 12:55 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
ughhh why am i even looking at this shit? is there any real reason to look at it? no. does it benefit anyone for me to look at it? no. should i get blazed and watch dune for the nth time? yes. has arrakis somehow become a cheerful escapist fantasy world? yes.
if anyone needs me i’ll be bwoooooooommm aieeeeya
posted by Sperry Topsider at 1:10 PM on April 9 [4 favorites]
if anyone needs me i’ll be bwoooooooommm aieeeeya
posted by Sperry Topsider at 1:10 PM on April 9 [4 favorites]
How long until he starts a war and then tries to back out from it the next day?
he may have already done that with china - but of course, they'll wait until the right moment to let him know
posted by pyramid termite at 1:12 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
he may have already done that with china - but of course, they'll wait until the right moment to let him know
posted by pyramid termite at 1:12 PM on April 9 [3 favorites]
Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but yes they did disappear and they did reappear.
In general, I don't bother to correct anti-capitalist misconceptions on the blue as they're usually vibes based arguments anyways. But since you asked: the way I think about it, stock prices are fundamentally a forecast (discounted) future earnings. Whether money disappears and reappears depends on part on your definition of money. Most people (myself included) don't define stocks as money though. No substantial number of shares were destroyed or created as a result of this tarriff theater, but the forecast definitely changed back and forth based on Trump's actions. And it may well change yet again.
Besides some hypothetical administration enrichment, the main effect of these yo-yo tarriffs is a decrease in investment and trade. If you cannot predict what the taxes will be six months from now, you will not make an order for delivery in six month's time. Nor will you build a factory in the US when Trump just demonstrated how eager he is to pull the rug on you. And that increase in policy uncertainty will result in a permanent decrease in future earnings, and the forecast thereof we call the stock market.
posted by pwnguin at 1:14 PM on April 9 [7 favorites]
In general, I don't bother to correct anti-capitalist misconceptions on the blue as they're usually vibes based arguments anyways. But since you asked: the way I think about it, stock prices are fundamentally a forecast (discounted) future earnings. Whether money disappears and reappears depends on part on your definition of money. Most people (myself included) don't define stocks as money though. No substantial number of shares were destroyed or created as a result of this tarriff theater, but the forecast definitely changed back and forth based on Trump's actions. And it may well change yet again.
Besides some hypothetical administration enrichment, the main effect of these yo-yo tarriffs is a decrease in investment and trade. If you cannot predict what the taxes will be six months from now, you will not make an order for delivery in six month's time. Nor will you build a factory in the US when Trump just demonstrated how eager he is to pull the rug on you. And that increase in policy uncertainty will result in a permanent decrease in future earnings, and the forecast thereof we call the stock market.
posted by pwnguin at 1:14 PM on April 9 [7 favorites]
I agree that stocks aren't 1:1 with money. Value is a better word. If you hold stock, the value of it has been shaved since January, and if you needed to sell any now to live on, that will become money lost. And if investment and economic activities are paused or scaled back, that's a loss compared to what might have been absent this tariff assault nonsense.
CNN and other news sites have been updating so fast they look like videos...
How long until he starts a war and then tries to back out from it the next day?
I've been thinking that the tariff global assault/walkback is like launching ICBMs then issuing the return code about halfway, to most of them.
posted by Artful Codger at 1:19 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
CNN and other news sites have been updating so fast they look like videos...
How long until he starts a war and then tries to back out from it the next day?
I've been thinking that the tariff global assault/walkback is like launching ICBMs then issuing the return code about halfway, to most of them.
posted by Artful Codger at 1:19 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
Bessent is saying the president wants to be personally involved in every single separate, bespoke negotiation, meaning: Trump wants to extract bribes from every single country. Or else...
posted by mumimor at 1:21 PM on April 9 [7 favorites]
posted by mumimor at 1:21 PM on April 9 [7 favorites]
Would ANY self-respecting world leader want to come to DC to publicly prostrate themselves before TFG? He even beat on his bestie Netanyahu, then sent him home emptyhanded.
posted by Artful Codger at 1:26 PM on April 9 [1 favorite]
posted by Artful Codger at 1:26 PM on April 9 [1 favorite]
people regard stocks as money because their primary association with them are their 401ks, which people tend to think of in terms of being roughly the amount of money they’ll have upon retirement. i do, at least, because they’re locked up so tightly and they’ll be sold at a point where i’ll need their value to live.
asterisk: and the fools who play casino games think of them as chips.
okay clearly my phone can’t even be in the same room with me.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 1:34 PM on April 9
asterisk: and the fools who play casino games think of them as chips.
okay clearly my phone can’t even be in the same room with me.
posted by Sperry Topsider at 1:34 PM on April 9
Scaramucci says at TRIP/US that Scott Bessent threatened he would leave if Trump wouldn't pull back the tariffs.
posted by mumimor at 4:29 PM on April 9
posted by mumimor at 4:29 PM on April 9
Kinda wild that one of the OG Soros guys is Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary, instead of like, the CEO of a company selling fuckable pillows or something.
posted by pwnguin at 5:03 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
posted by pwnguin at 5:03 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
…and put a new 10% tariff on Canada and Mexico (?!)
Update: that was all miscommunication because no one knows what the hell is going on.
posted by mazola at 5:06 PM on April 9
Update: that was all miscommunication because no one knows what the hell is going on.
posted by mazola at 5:06 PM on April 9
and for the next 90 days no one will be able to know what the hell is going on - he hasn't just put a pause button on his tarriffs, he's put one on much of the economy
who's going to want to start any kind of venture in this kind of atmosphere?
posted by pyramid termite at 5:45 PM on April 9 [7 favorites]
who's going to want to start any kind of venture in this kind of atmosphere?
posted by pyramid termite at 5:45 PM on April 9 [7 favorites]
Somebody grab the White House phone log for today, before it's deleted, and match it up to suspicious trading.
Didn't he post something like "NOW is a great time to buy stocks" just before the announcement postponing tariffs? This smells more like the "Russia, if you're listening" genre of messaging his cabal/handlers/puppetmasters.
posted by Rumple at 5:49 PM on April 9 [8 favorites]
Didn't he post something like "NOW is a great time to buy stocks" just before the announcement postponing tariffs? This smells more like the "Russia, if you're listening" genre of messaging his cabal/handlers/puppetmasters.
posted by Rumple at 5:49 PM on April 9 [8 favorites]
In general, I don't bother to correct anti-capitalist misconceptions on the blue as they're usually vibes based arguments anyways. But since you asked: the way I think about it, stock prices are fundamentally a forecast
In the year 2025, stock prices are not so often forecasts and more, well, vibes-based.
posted by ssg at 6:24 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
In the year 2025, stock prices are not so often forecasts and more, well, vibes-based.
posted by ssg at 6:24 PM on April 9 [2 favorites]
In the year 2025, stock prices are not so often forecasts and more, well, vibes-based.
Same as it ever was.
posted by mollweide at 6:47 PM on April 9 [4 favorites]
Same as it ever was.
posted by mollweide at 6:47 PM on April 9 [4 favorites]
From a UK lawyer on Blue Sky
Remember Trump is using emergency legislation for the tariffs.
So the measures that were urgent and necessary to meet that emergency have now suddenly become non-urgent and unnecessary.
If US congress and courts properly held president to account for misuse of emergency powers, this would matter.
I don't think the RoW should take this latest move seriously, trade relations should route around the USA and all tariffs met with equal tariffs. America is not a serious place, nor reliable, nor our ally. China is not our friend either but in trade terms the enemy of my enemy is probably my friend.
posted by epo at 2:50 AM on April 10 [3 favorites]
Remember Trump is using emergency legislation for the tariffs.
So the measures that were urgent and necessary to meet that emergency have now suddenly become non-urgent and unnecessary.
If US congress and courts properly held president to account for misuse of emergency powers, this would matter.
I don't think the RoW should take this latest move seriously, trade relations should route around the USA and all tariffs met with equal tariffs. America is not a serious place, nor reliable, nor our ally. China is not our friend either but in trade terms the enemy of my enemy is probably my friend.
posted by epo at 2:50 AM on April 10 [3 favorites]
This is just insider trading writ large, is what it feels like. Buy low sell high same as it ever was. Fucking everything up is their only move.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:09 AM on April 10 [3 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:09 AM on April 10 [3 favorites]
Is there any evidence of insider trading? Options markets are usually pretty thin, especially for out of the money contracts, so any serious bets on this would be easy to spot as price jumps before the announcement.
posted by pwnguin at 9:41 AM on April 10 [2 favorites]
posted by pwnguin at 9:41 AM on April 10 [2 favorites]
Glenn Luk (a day ago): So I guess China’s response to the April 9th deadline was this white paper, published just a few minutes ago.
The rest of the thread talks about the paper, but if you want it directly: China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic and Trade Relations
Knowing about the Plaza Accord etc, my personal take is that this has always been a US failed bet in how it dominates through trade and currency market to turn a country into a client state. The same moves it did with Japan and South Korea and even Southeast Asia especially Vietnam nowadays (but also Malaysia) - turning the country into a manufacturing base but then leaning on them should their economy begin to dominate a little too much (see Japan, but Germany also signed that same Accord, it's just they had the good fortune of reunification and the EU), it was doing with China with one critical difference: China did actually take notes on what happened with post-USSR Russia and other ex-Soviet states, and acted in ways that basically circumvented the eventual folding into the "western order" AND had the domestic population size that the other states I've mentioned so far do not. Every subsequent President since Clinton has been trying to outwit the conditions that they have themselves laid down, it's just now there's a genuine half-wit (metaphorically; I can't resist the rhythm) in the office.
So sure, the post-WW2 manufacturing base was never going to return. But the fact is, no one seriously thought so except these LLM-poisoned fascists and incels. But the magic of the American intelligentsia and elite discourse is that there's never going to be a public reckoning on what exactly they've been doing since it's so contrary to the self-image, so everything has had to be couched in organic terms where it's natural for countries to follow America's lead (unless you're actually in the room when someone lets slip their establishment political worldview and how much work this involves). In the meantime, the best people can figure is that it's a spot of insider trading, and I'm not saying people aren't striking while the iron is hot, and certainly Trump has this one damned idea since the 1980s but I'll offer that while his is the stupidest possible iteration of the attitude, the fact is America as a business and political entity has had a grudge against countries who've had the temerity of having neoliberal capitalism introduced to them and not come into the fold. Not even ploughing back political corruption money into the local economy the way KSA, UAE, Turkey, Israel, even Russia have been doing. How dare they? So now we have the most insane understanding of how trade works being used to explain the various tarifs, but there's a reason why Biden never reversed on the Trump1 tariffs nor the Huawei ban, and even hopped on the TikTok drama (which was definitely driven by being unable to exert the typical levers to disappear advocacy for Palestine the way the west have done for every other institution, never mind the fact that China itself isn't a fan of public protests either). Just a series of decades-long own goals.
posted by cendawanita at 9:51 AM on April 10 [4 favorites]
The rest of the thread talks about the paper, but if you want it directly: China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic and Trade Relations
Knowing about the Plaza Accord etc, my personal take is that this has always been a US failed bet in how it dominates through trade and currency market to turn a country into a client state. The same moves it did with Japan and South Korea and even Southeast Asia especially Vietnam nowadays (but also Malaysia) - turning the country into a manufacturing base but then leaning on them should their economy begin to dominate a little too much (see Japan, but Germany also signed that same Accord, it's just they had the good fortune of reunification and the EU), it was doing with China with one critical difference: China did actually take notes on what happened with post-USSR Russia and other ex-Soviet states, and acted in ways that basically circumvented the eventual folding into the "western order" AND had the domestic population size that the other states I've mentioned so far do not. Every subsequent President since Clinton has been trying to outwit the conditions that they have themselves laid down, it's just now there's a genuine half-wit (metaphorically; I can't resist the rhythm) in the office.
So sure, the post-WW2 manufacturing base was never going to return. But the fact is, no one seriously thought so except these LLM-poisoned fascists and incels. But the magic of the American intelligentsia and elite discourse is that there's never going to be a public reckoning on what exactly they've been doing since it's so contrary to the self-image, so everything has had to be couched in organic terms where it's natural for countries to follow America's lead (unless you're actually in the room when someone lets slip their establishment political worldview and how much work this involves). In the meantime, the best people can figure is that it's a spot of insider trading, and I'm not saying people aren't striking while the iron is hot, and certainly Trump has this one damned idea since the 1980s but I'll offer that while his is the stupidest possible iteration of the attitude, the fact is America as a business and political entity has had a grudge against countries who've had the temerity of having neoliberal capitalism introduced to them and not come into the fold. Not even ploughing back political corruption money into the local economy the way KSA, UAE, Turkey, Israel, even Russia have been doing. How dare they? So now we have the most insane understanding of how trade works being used to explain the various tarifs, but there's a reason why Biden never reversed on the Trump1 tariffs nor the Huawei ban, and even hopped on the TikTok drama (which was definitely driven by being unable to exert the typical levers to disappear advocacy for Palestine the way the west have done for every other institution, never mind the fact that China itself isn't a fan of public protests either). Just a series of decades-long own goals.
posted by cendawanita at 9:51 AM on April 10 [4 favorites]
Is there any evidence of insider trading?
There's this graphic, not proof, but suspicious. There's are probably a ton of explanations possible. We'll probably never know since the people doing the insider trading control the people who should be investigating.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 10:09 AM on April 10 [8 favorites]
There's this graphic, not proof, but suspicious. There's are probably a ton of explanations possible. We'll probably never know since the people doing the insider trading control the people who should be investigating.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 10:09 AM on April 10 [8 favorites]
It least some reporting: https://fortune.com/2025/04/10/rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-scooped-up-shares-of-amazon-and-dell-when-stocks-were-down-40-from-trumps-tariff-whiplash/
posted by Golem XIV at 4:01 PM on April 10 [1 favorite]
posted by Golem XIV at 4:01 PM on April 10 [1 favorite]
Following up on my own history tangent, while I namechecked Clinton, I should also recall the Republican everyone loves to idolize nowadays: Those Reagan tariffs [on Japan] Trump loves to talk about
posted by cendawanita at 7:08 PM on April 10
posted by cendawanita at 7:08 PM on April 10
unusual whales (which does self-promotion looking at trades done by US politicians) posts some more detailed allegations:
Zero days are the wackiest, most obviously casino hall contract yet invented. They are options contracts that expire by end of day. Imagine going to a home insurance agent and asking to buy insurance this way. You'd be sent to jail! Or at least referred to the DA.
posted by pwnguin at 10:17 PM on April 10 [1 favorite]
RIGHT BEFORE THE NEWS, someone opened $SPY 509 calls, expiring TODAY!...Those calls are up 2100% in one hour. ... You can see all volume is new opening volume (not only on the Zero days, but also on the weekly $QQQ and $TQQQ calls).
Zero days are the wackiest, most obviously casino hall contract yet invented. They are options contracts that expire by end of day. Imagine going to a home insurance agent and asking to buy insurance this way. You'd be sent to jail! Or at least referred to the DA.
posted by pwnguin at 10:17 PM on April 10 [1 favorite]
The big lesson for Europe? Trump backed down under pressure
Alexander Hurst/The Guardian
Alexander Hurst/The Guardian
When markets dump $10tn in three days and then gain trillions back in a single afternoon on the erratic decisions of one deeply corrupt person, you can be sure that a small number of people have made immense sums of money out of that volatility. Were the people responsible for abnormal spikes buying into the markets (including call options on various indexes and exchange-traded funds) on Wednesday morning – and again, 20 minutes before the tariff announcement went public – extraordinarily lucky? Were they in the right Signal group? Or were they just simply following Trump on Truth Social, where he posted: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” –just a few hours before dropping the news that he was kind of pulling back.posted by mumimor at 1:36 AM on April 11 [5 favorites]
The first takeaway for the EU – beyond the potential stock tips – is that Trump will back down under pressure. So don’t grovel: the 10% universal tariff is still there, as are last month’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, so why has the EU unilaterally stepped down its retaliatory tariffs without a corresponding step-down from the US?
Trump, of course, is spinning his partial U-turn as a result of “these countries … calling me, kissing my ass”, as he bragged to a gathering of congressional Republicans on Tuesday night. I have no doubt that Trump – whom hundreds of mental health professionals have described as having such a striking and serious case of malignant narcissism that they were willing to break a professional rule and diagnose him from a distance – would have loved for that to be true. But let me go out on a limb and say that it wasn’t the ass-kissing or any “deals”. It was that investors and funds the world over were fleeing anything and everything linked to the US – including its sovereign debt.
China raises tariffs on US goods to 125%
BREAKING: China has announced additional tariffs on US goods to 125%, according to Reuters.
That is up from the previous level of 84%.
China’s finance ministry is reported as saying that if the US insists on continuing to infringe upon China’s interest in a substantive way, China will resolutely take countermeasures and fight to the end.
posted by cendawanita at 2:49 AM on April 11 [4 favorites]
BREAKING: China has announced additional tariffs on US goods to 125%, according to Reuters.
That is up from the previous level of 84%.
China’s finance ministry is reported as saying that if the US insists on continuing to infringe upon China’s interest in a substantive way, China will resolutely take countermeasures and fight to the end.
posted by cendawanita at 2:49 AM on April 11 [4 favorites]
This chart may be out of date by the end of today (for China, for instance), but I found it useful to understand the current state of tariffs.
posted by gwint at 8:21 AM on April 11 [2 favorites]
posted by gwint at 8:21 AM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Interesting chart! So the overall tariffs are up slightly, but concentrated more on China than the grey small countries block.
The Kiel Institute Trade and Tariffs Monitor had a projection from their trade model of the consequences of the older "reciprocal tariffs" proposal. They haven't updated it, but I assume the new model makes China do worse, Japan and Global do better, and leaves the US much the same. The US did far worse than anywhere else based on that model.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:49 AM on April 11
The Kiel Institute Trade and Tariffs Monitor had a projection from their trade model of the consequences of the older "reciprocal tariffs" proposal. They haven't updated it, but I assume the new model makes China do worse, Japan and Global do better, and leaves the US much the same. The US did far worse than anywhere else based on that model.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:49 AM on April 11
At present, the EU has seemingly done zero retaliations, right mumimor? I really hope they do some serious damage whenever they finally move: Advertising taxes could seriously harm Google and Meta, even if their earnings stayed in Ireland. All government services and contractors could be pushed toward EU owned cloud providers, damazing Amazon.
posted by jeffburdges at 3:56 PM on April 11
posted by jeffburdges at 3:56 PM on April 11
I really hope they do some serious damage whenever they finally move: Advertising taxes could seriously harm Google and Meta
Usually you want to strategically antagonize your opponent's economy in a way that undermines their base of power and gets them to back off. Right now, Google appears to have zero friends in Washington, and both parties here seem eager to punish them (for different reasons). The Biden administration sued them for anti-trust and the GOP (and JD Vance especially) sees no flaw in that plan.
What you want is something that the US makes, which EU buys, and which Trump supporters have a stake in. Unfortunately, the exports to EU is things that are pretty vital: vaccines, airplanes and oil. EU is targeting US agriculture, and the message is definitely being heard, but between the similar climates and cultures, EU doesn't really import that much anyways. Maybe 10% of total US soy exports. It's China thats the biggest consumer here.
posted by pwnguin at 10:19 PM on April 11
Usually you want to strategically antagonize your opponent's economy in a way that undermines their base of power and gets them to back off. Right now, Google appears to have zero friends in Washington, and both parties here seem eager to punish them (for different reasons). The Biden administration sued them for anti-trust and the GOP (and JD Vance especially) sees no flaw in that plan.
What you want is something that the US makes, which EU buys, and which Trump supporters have a stake in. Unfortunately, the exports to EU is things that are pretty vital: vaccines, airplanes and oil. EU is targeting US agriculture, and the message is definitely being heard, but between the similar climates and cultures, EU doesn't really import that much anyways. Maybe 10% of total US soy exports. It's China thats the biggest consumer here.
posted by pwnguin at 10:19 PM on April 11
jeffburdges: All government services and contractors could be pushed toward EU owned cloud providers, damazing Amazon.
This is happening (to some extent), and not just government services either. It's not presented as retaliation though; it's a matter of trust (and possibly appealing to your userbase).
posted by demi-octopus at 11:58 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
This is happening (to some extent), and not just government services either. It's not presented as retaliation though; it's a matter of trust (and possibly appealing to your userbase).
posted by demi-octopus at 11:58 PM on April 11 [2 favorites]
Urgh, please nobody tell Trump that Services exist. He's doing enough harm with Goods and that's only a third of the economy.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:33 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 12:33 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
Just finished reading the article by the soybean farmer posted upthread. He blames Biden and is still very much a Trump supporter. OK with the tariffs of 2018 because they got a good deal. Yeah...
posted by jadepearl at 12:54 AM on April 12
posted by jadepearl at 12:54 AM on April 12
Echoing demi-octupus and TheophileEscargot, the EU doesn't import a lot of goods from the US, and some of the main products like drugs, airplanes and weapons are being home-sourced already, tariffs aren't really necessary. As are services. I think the main reason the tech lords support Trumps maniacal idiocracy is that they bet he could strong-arm the EU on tech regulation, and that was and is a very bad bet (showing that they are a bunch of un-educated morons). Europeans hate unregulated tech almost as much as they hate unregulated foodstuffs, like chlorinated chickens. There is a wide popular support for regulations and thus no political gain from acquiescing to Trump's demands.
Because the whole thing that Trump says are unfair barriers to US goods and services in the EU are actually regulations, not so much tariffs or taxes. In the EU, only Champagne can be called Champagne etc. More importantly, the EU is consistently working on safety regulations on all types of services and products, and for some reason American manufacturers and service providers cannot or will not live up to these rules.
Regarding oil and gas, the general direction in Europe is towards renewables or nuclear power, away from fossil fuels, so oil and gas have an expiration date which will hit the US, Russia and OPEC hard. EVs are an important developing industry, and EU consumers are moving extremely rapidly from Teslas to home-built and Chinese vehicles, not least after seeing Musk on stage with a chain-saw. We do have TVs over here, you know.
Finally a somewhat unrelated note: yesterday I got a very obviously Russian AI generated propaganda video about Denmark in my feed and it was insanely badly made. The very few comments were all Fuck Off. I wonder why the Russians have had so much more succes in the UK and US in inserting fake news and other forms of propaganda into the news streams?
posted by mumimor at 12:56 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
Because the whole thing that Trump says are unfair barriers to US goods and services in the EU are actually regulations, not so much tariffs or taxes. In the EU, only Champagne can be called Champagne etc. More importantly, the EU is consistently working on safety regulations on all types of services and products, and for some reason American manufacturers and service providers cannot or will not live up to these rules.
Regarding oil and gas, the general direction in Europe is towards renewables or nuclear power, away from fossil fuels, so oil and gas have an expiration date which will hit the US, Russia and OPEC hard. EVs are an important developing industry, and EU consumers are moving extremely rapidly from Teslas to home-built and Chinese vehicles, not least after seeing Musk on stage with a chain-saw. We do have TVs over here, you know.
Finally a somewhat unrelated note: yesterday I got a very obviously Russian AI generated propaganda video about Denmark in my feed and it was insanely badly made. The very few comments were all Fuck Off. I wonder why the Russians have had so much more succes in the UK and US in inserting fake news and other forms of propaganda into the news streams?
posted by mumimor at 12:56 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
why the Russians have had so much more succes in the UK and US
Generally, the (dismantled) primary and secondary education system as a start? Or (hyperlocal) "news" through Facebook and the like with hyperpolarizing actors? Both? Where else?
posted by porpoise at 1:06 AM on April 12
Generally, the (dismantled) primary and secondary education system as a start? Or (hyperlocal) "news" through Facebook and the like with hyperpolarizing actors? Both? Where else?
posted by porpoise at 1:06 AM on April 12
Russian Propaganda works in 3 phases:They're usually really bad at seeding. But amplification just needs some botnets to promote what some other, real, idiot says online. The US has both a larger supply of idiots and a commitment to let them speak freely. Plus I imagine more Russian agents speak English than Danish.
* Seeding
* Harvesting
* Amplification
posted by pwnguin at 1:45 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
Russia is pretty successful at propaganda in a lot of places. I work with a lot of people from North Macedonia and most of them fully buy the Russian line on Ukraine. Russia has an extensive propaganda effort there.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:33 AM on April 12 [1 favorite]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 3:33 AM on April 12 [1 favorite]
Worries and reactions over capital flight: "On Friday, the US Dollar Index — which measures the dollar's value relative to a basket of currencies (the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc) — plummeted below the psychologically meaningful 100 mark, hitting its weakest point since April 2022. [...] 'I do think it's severe,' Marc Chandler, global foreign exchange chief market strategist at Bannockburn, told Yahoo Finance when asked about the sell-off in the US dollar and bond market. 'People are concerned that maybe we're seeing a capital strike against the US, where large pools of capital are selling US assets and taking their money home.'" (Alexandra Canal, Yahoo Finance)
"'U.S. exceptionalism went out of the window a long time ago,' Mr. Nordvig said. 'Now it is a question of if people fear U.S. assets. That’s the next phase of it.' His concern is if the administration moves beyond just tariffs and starts to think about controlling the flow of capital, too. 'If they can do these extreme restrictions on trade, even with the closest allies, can they do restrictions on capital flows as well?' Mr. Nordvig asked. 'Nobody knows. There is no limit here.'" (Colby Smith, NYT, archive)
posted by mittens at 3:57 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
"'U.S. exceptionalism went out of the window a long time ago,' Mr. Nordvig said. 'Now it is a question of if people fear U.S. assets. That’s the next phase of it.' His concern is if the administration moves beyond just tariffs and starts to think about controlling the flow of capital, too. 'If they can do these extreme restrictions on trade, even with the closest allies, can they do restrictions on capital flows as well?' Mr. Nordvig asked. 'Nobody knows. There is no limit here.'" (Colby Smith, NYT, archive)
posted by mittens at 3:57 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
Wishful thinking I suspect but a nice cartoon by Volker Weber (from Mastodon, Trump firing a tiny catapult at Xi who is quietly standing in front of a war sized catapult).
posted by epo at 5:58 AM on April 12
posted by epo at 5:58 AM on April 12
The thing about China is that they have: a LOT of actual state capacity, whereas the federal government is chopping away at what was already a much smaller amount, the ability to plan for the future and a political culture that, flawed though it is, respects intelligence and expertise. I'm not going to stand here and say, "let's all cheer for China because they are the moral leader of the world" - although I think the United States right now has roughly negative one legs to stand on here - but no matter what happens right now, in the medium run China is going to win because the United States has been eating the seedcorn and cheering for stupidity for almost all of the last forty years.
The smart thing to do would be to work to negotiate mutually beneficial agreements and slowly try to bring some critical manufacturing, like pharmaceuticals, back to the US via industrial planning. The United States has a huge military and if we were an honest partner we could eventually get honesty and trust from, say, China AND Russia, and this would reduce and pressure on Taiwan and on Eastern Europe. I'm not saying that there's no nationalism or grand plans there, but those grand plans seem much more urgent when you have a powerful, erratic, self-interested empire scheming on the other side of the globe.
As always, the problem isn't literally the problem, it's people. It's Late Victorian Holocausts all the way down.
posted by Frowner at 6:31 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
The smart thing to do would be to work to negotiate mutually beneficial agreements and slowly try to bring some critical manufacturing, like pharmaceuticals, back to the US via industrial planning. The United States has a huge military and if we were an honest partner we could eventually get honesty and trust from, say, China AND Russia, and this would reduce and pressure on Taiwan and on Eastern Europe. I'm not saying that there's no nationalism or grand plans there, but those grand plans seem much more urgent when you have a powerful, erratic, self-interested empire scheming on the other side of the globe.
As always, the problem isn't literally the problem, it's people. It's Late Victorian Holocausts all the way down.
posted by Frowner at 6:31 AM on April 12 [6 favorites]
will the tariffs be automatically changing yearly? (monthly? daily?) probably not - they're a meaningless blunt club
The tariffs will change every time the Trump TV coverage and or ratings drop.
posted by srboisvert at 10:50 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
The tariffs will change every time the Trump TV coverage and or ratings drop.
posted by srboisvert at 10:50 AM on April 12 [3 favorites]
why the Russians have had so much more succes in the UK and US
The two countries with the laxest enforcement against foreign money in political campaigns in the West are very easy targets. The politicians and the media can be ridiculously easily bought with pretty much zero consequences.
posted by srboisvert at 10:53 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
The two countries with the laxest enforcement against foreign money in political campaigns in the West are very easy targets. The politicians and the media can be ridiculously easily bought with pretty much zero consequences.
posted by srboisvert at 10:53 AM on April 12 [2 favorites]
Trump has now exempted laptops, phones, and some other electronics from tariffs.
posted by mbrubeck at 11:46 AM on April 12
posted by mbrubeck at 11:46 AM on April 12
> Trump has now exempted laptops, phones, and some other electronics from tariffs.
Only from the reciprocal tariffs:
Only from the reciprocal tariffs:
The exemptions are not a full reprieve. Other tariffs will still apply to electronics and smartphones. The Trump administration had applied a tariff of 20 percent on Chinese goods earlier this year for what the administration said was the country’s role in the fentanyl trade. And the administration could still end up increasing tariffs for semiconductors, a vital component of smartphones and other electronics.posted by ASCII Costanza head at 7:21 PM on April 12 [2 favorites]
It works both ways I manufacture a small open source product in China, I also warehouse there (because shipping is so much cheaper). About 1/3 of my customers live in the US, other customers live in countries that charge tariffs, they have to deal with local customs or post offices to pay what they owe, it's not something that's really an issue for me (except for occasionally helping people track down missing packages).
Currently shipping out of China seems disrupted, more because the shipping companies are leary about getting stuck with the tariffs, the US doesn't have the infrastructure to collect them, Post Offices don't have the bandwidth, people can't take time off work etc etc - that may change, but it's not something that can change overnight
Trump's exemption for computer stuff will likely mean that my packages will eventually sail through, but I'm about to do another build, China's reciprocal tariffs will affect my cost of parts and it's a bit unfair making my non-US customers pay for this silly pointless trade war, since the silliness changes every day I think I;m just going to wait this out for a month or two
posted by mbo at 9:38 PM on April 12 [1 favorite]
Currently shipping out of China seems disrupted, more because the shipping companies are leary about getting stuck with the tariffs, the US doesn't have the infrastructure to collect them, Post Offices don't have the bandwidth, people can't take time off work etc etc - that may change, but it's not something that can change overnight
Trump's exemption for computer stuff will likely mean that my packages will eventually sail through, but I'm about to do another build, China's reciprocal tariffs will affect my cost of parts and it's a bit unfair making my non-US customers pay for this silly pointless trade war, since the silliness changes every day I think I;m just going to wait this out for a month or two
posted by mbo at 9:38 PM on April 12 [1 favorite]
One thing about the tariffs is that they make it effectively impossible to build things in both countries, since you can't easily shift components back and forth across borders. So companies that currently do that, e.g. assembling mostly Chinese component in the US, now have to make a stark choice: build everything in China, or build everything in the US. But so much of the supply chain is in China you probably can't build everything in the US.
The electronics exemption might be an attempt to deal with that looming problem: that the tariffs actually just uproot most of what's left of US electronics production and shifts it to China en masse.
Not sure it will work. It's not just the overall tariff levels but the delays, the shipping problems, the uncertainty that are the problems. E.g. here's a letter from a niche keyboard manufacturer explaining some if it.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:32 AM on April 13 [1 favorite]
The electronics exemption might be an attempt to deal with that looming problem: that the tariffs actually just uproot most of what's left of US electronics production and shifts it to China en masse.
Not sure it will work. It's not just the overall tariff levels but the delays, the shipping problems, the uncertainty that are the problems. E.g. here's a letter from a niche keyboard manufacturer explaining some if it.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:32 AM on April 13 [1 favorite]
Not sure it will work.
A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning, because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it’d be interesting to check that. So that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful.
posted by flabdablet at 3:22 AM on April 13 [6 favorites]
A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning, because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs. So it’d be interesting to check that. So that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful.
posted by flabdablet at 3:22 AM on April 13 [6 favorites]
Haven't been, not really, not since that stupid fucker got elected again. But thanks for caring.
posted by flabdablet at 7:34 AM on April 13 [3 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 7:34 AM on April 13 [3 favorites]
The electronics exemption might be an attempt to deal with that looming problem:
Or it might be because someone made a generous contribution to the TFG inauguration fund.
posted by Mitheral at 7:41 AM on April 13 [3 favorites]
Or it might be because someone made a generous contribution to the TFG inauguration fund.
posted by Mitheral at 7:41 AM on April 13 [3 favorites]
The Kiel Institute had a small update to its tariffs monitor with the estimates of the economic impact of the 10% uniform and 145% China tariffs.
The inflation prediction for the US is down to 5.5% from 7.6% under the previous tariffs.
US production is -1.63%, China production -0.67%, Global -0.75%. The previous tariffs had those at US -1.69%, China -0.61%, Global -0.83%.
So slightly less bad for everyone except China, a miniscule amount worse for China.
But as you'd expect the US is still doing far worse than everyone else.
This still feels a bit like threatening "I'm going to shoot myself in the head, and then you guys are going to get brains and blood all over your shirts!"
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:27 AM on April 17 [2 favorites]
The inflation prediction for the US is down to 5.5% from 7.6% under the previous tariffs.
US production is -1.63%, China production -0.67%, Global -0.75%. The previous tariffs had those at US -1.69%, China -0.61%, Global -0.83%.
So slightly less bad for everyone except China, a miniscule amount worse for China.
But as you'd expect the US is still doing far worse than everyone else.
This still feels a bit like threatening "I'm going to shoot myself in the head, and then you guys are going to get brains and blood all over your shirts!"
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:27 AM on April 17 [2 favorites]
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It's killing me that I have a couple of unbreakable commitments this weekend otherwise I would SO be doing this dammit.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:24 AM on April 3 [12 favorites]