Predict-a-flop
June 26, 2003 6:19 PM Subscribe
The Box Office Oracle You pick the writer, director, genre, actrons, budget, rating and month of release. You get projected box office receipts, chance of winning an Oscar and critics most likely to praise and pan your movie. There's even a BOO Hall of Fame. [via All Movie Guide reviewer Matthew Tobey]
Well, the good news is that Snipe Master II: Targeted for Dying is projected to make $57 million on a $30 million dollar budget. Bad news is that Rowan Atkinson has to play the police detective, not Brian Dennehey, and we're going to have to convince David Mamet to write the budget and Judy Dench to play an evil hippie.
posted by Hildago at 6:59 PM on June 26, 2003
posted by Hildago at 6:59 PM on June 26, 2003
I've got a winner on my hands, even if it seems like it's a little slow out of the gate--it's gonna be one of those word-of-mouth things. Of course the SF Chronicle's gonna flame it, but I just can't wait to see Mirren totally rip Liu and Dushku to shreds! You may all worship my premise mastery right now, though I guess I should tweak it a bit more to get to the $100 "blockbuster" plateau.
Revenge Freaks II -- Blood Lust (R)
(Adventure/Buddy Cop/Caper Comedy/Mystery)
Starring Jim Carrey and Lucy Liu
Also Featuring Sean Astin, Derek Jacobi, Eliza Dushku, and Helen Mirren
Directed by M. Night Shyamalan
Screenplay by Philippa Boyens and Rhett Reese
Projected Budget Range: $40-49 Million
Planned Release Date: July
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$17.80 million (Opening Weekend)
$93.77 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 5%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: Slim to None
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Michael O'Sullivan, Washington Post
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Mick LaSalle, San Francisco Chronicle
posted by WolfDaddy at 7:11 PM on June 26, 2003
Revenge Freaks II -- Blood Lust (R)
(Adventure/Buddy Cop/Caper Comedy/Mystery)
Starring Jim Carrey and Lucy Liu
Also Featuring Sean Astin, Derek Jacobi, Eliza Dushku, and Helen Mirren
Directed by M. Night Shyamalan
Screenplay by Philippa Boyens and Rhett Reese
Projected Budget Range: $40-49 Million
Planned Release Date: July
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$17.80 million (Opening Weekend)
$93.77 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 5%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: Slim to None
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Michael O'Sullivan, Washington Post
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Mick LaSalle, San Francisco Chronicle
posted by WolfDaddy at 7:11 PM on June 26, 2003
I'm shocked...shocked that "Wrong Turn 2: Rednecks Take Manhattan" has only an 8% chance of getting an Oscar nod. You'd think with Lasse Hallstrom directing Vin Diesel, Willem DaFoe and Eliza Dushku they'd at least get some Golden Globe nominations. I think Brittany Murphy pulled down the rest of the cast. That, and the fogeys at the academiy have never appreciated Chase/Paranoia/Revenge Fantasy/Talking Animal films. Oh well, at least the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle liked it.
[this is good] (the post not my movie pitch)
posted by arco at 7:21 PM on June 26, 2003
[this is good] (the post not my movie pitch)
posted by arco at 7:21 PM on June 26, 2003
Ha! I am more l33t than wolfdaddy, suxors! I got $103M for my Buddy Cop / Lingering Illness / Talking Animal movie that I lovingly titled Splooty McBumbum.
It has Vin Diesel in the lead as Sheriff Dirk "Diggler" Squarejaw, who is assigned the lovable possum Splooty McBumbum (voiced by Derek Jakobi) as his partner. Later, Splooty reveals to Dirk's wife Barbarella Psychedela, played by Natalie Portman, that he has some sort of lingering illness or something. Everyone comes to terms with it, and then there's some crime stuff where Rachel Weisz and Kristin Scott Thomas are doing something illegal and naked. At the end, the compassionate veteranarian android Vet-Bot 2000, played by Jimmy Smits, puts Splooty out of his misery by stepping on him.
Written by Peter Jackson, directed by M. Night Shyamalan.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:25 PM on June 26, 2003
It has Vin Diesel in the lead as Sheriff Dirk "Diggler" Squarejaw, who is assigned the lovable possum Splooty McBumbum (voiced by Derek Jakobi) as his partner. Later, Splooty reveals to Dirk's wife Barbarella Psychedela, played by Natalie Portman, that he has some sort of lingering illness or something. Everyone comes to terms with it, and then there's some crime stuff where Rachel Weisz and Kristin Scott Thomas are doing something illegal and naked. At the end, the compassionate veteranarian android Vet-Bot 2000, played by Jimmy Smits, puts Splooty out of his misery by stepping on him.
Written by Peter Jackson, directed by M. Night Shyamalan.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:25 PM on June 26, 2003
Anyone else dying to know what equations Chucklehound uses to analyze the input?
posted by mediareport at 8:07 PM on June 26, 2003
posted by mediareport at 8:07 PM on June 26, 2003
Thurmonator! The Strom Thurmond Story (R)
(Lingering Illness/Paranoia/Period Drama/True Story)
Starring Richard Harris and Reese Witherspoon
Also Featuring Joaquin Phoenix and Cedric the Entertainer
Directed by Chris Columbus
Screenplay by Steven Kloves
Projected Budget Range: $80-89 Million
Planned Release Date: June
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$17.93 million (Opening Weekend)
$101.18 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 8%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 3%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Jack Garner, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Ron Wells, Film Threat
[this is bad] (my film pitch, not the post)
posted by arco at 8:22 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
(Lingering Illness/Paranoia/Period Drama/True Story)
Starring Richard Harris and Reese Witherspoon
Also Featuring Joaquin Phoenix and Cedric the Entertainer
Directed by Chris Columbus
Screenplay by Steven Kloves
Projected Budget Range: $80-89 Million
Planned Release Date: June
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$17.93 million (Opening Weekend)
$101.18 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 8%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 3%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Jack Garner, Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Ron Wells, Film Threat
[this is bad] (my film pitch, not the post)
posted by arco at 8:22 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
In The Hero Dies, (written by Joss Whedon, writer/creator of Buffy) our main character played by Tommy Lee Jones, finds himself in danger, and rather than escaping as the audience expects, he actually dies.
From then on it's up to the other guys (Natalie Portman, Ben Affleck, Jay Mohr, Alyson Hannigan, and Kate Hudson) to try an manage by themselves in this Adventure/Comic Book/Mystery/Revenge Fantasy film.
Directed by Steven Soderbergh, and experimentally shot entirely on MiniDV and edited on a home computer. The film comes in for a modest budget of $148million.
With only $13million on opening weekend, and a total domestic gross of around $93million, it's expected to get a second life on video and also overseas.
Ron Wells of Film Threat sees the genius of the film and tells the world, but Los Angeles Times critic Kevin Thomas is not convinced.
With a 2% chance of winning an Oscar it is not an obvious standout, but we are keeping our fingers crossed.
At least it does better than the other films I pitched, such as God told me to skin you alive - the new Talking Animal/Thriller vehicle for Brad Pitt.
posted by sycophant at 9:09 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
From then on it's up to the other guys (Natalie Portman, Ben Affleck, Jay Mohr, Alyson Hannigan, and Kate Hudson) to try an manage by themselves in this Adventure/Comic Book/Mystery/Revenge Fantasy film.
Directed by Steven Soderbergh, and experimentally shot entirely on MiniDV and edited on a home computer. The film comes in for a modest budget of $148million.
With only $13million on opening weekend, and a total domestic gross of around $93million, it's expected to get a second life on video and also overseas.
Ron Wells of Film Threat sees the genius of the film and tells the world, but Los Angeles Times critic Kevin Thomas is not convinced.
With a 2% chance of winning an Oscar it is not an obvious standout, but we are keeping our fingers crossed.
At least it does better than the other films I pitched, such as God told me to skin you alive - the new Talking Animal/Thriller vehicle for Brad Pitt.
posted by sycophant at 9:09 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
In a world ...
...where everyone knows your name....
...Your only hope...
...is finding love...
...This summer...
...from the director who brought you Apollo 13 and A Beautiful Mind...
...The writers of About Schmidt and Gladiator...
...Bring the love affair of the century...
...to the most dangerous streets in the world...
...Taryn Manning as Gwynth Paltrow...
"Fuck you, I'm moving to London!"
...Willem Dafoe as Sean Combs...
"Just take the gun! They won't search you!"
...Rosario Dawson as Jennifer Lopez...
"I... I never learned how to act!"
...Tom Cruise as Ben Affleck...
"Check out my chin."
WHEN JEN MET BEN: CASABLANCA II
When Jen Met Ben (R)
(Adventure/True Story/Romance)
Starring Tom Cruise and Rosario Dawson
Also Featuring Willem Dafoe and Taryn Manning
Directed by Ron Howard
Screenplay by John Logan and Alexander Payne
Projected Budget Range: $100-109 Million
Planned Release Date: June
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$14.30 million (Opening Weekend)
$101.76 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 15%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 8%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Chris Gore, Film Threat
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Michael O'Sullivan, Washington Post
posted by raaka at 9:15 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
...where everyone knows your name....
...Your only hope...
...is finding love...
...This summer...
...from the director who brought you Apollo 13 and A Beautiful Mind...
...The writers of About Schmidt and Gladiator...
...Bring the love affair of the century...
...to the most dangerous streets in the world...
...Taryn Manning as Gwynth Paltrow...
"Fuck you, I'm moving to London!"
...Willem Dafoe as Sean Combs...
"Just take the gun! They won't search you!"
...Rosario Dawson as Jennifer Lopez...
"I... I never learned how to act!"
...Tom Cruise as Ben Affleck...
"Check out my chin."
WHEN JEN MET BEN: CASABLANCA II
When Jen Met Ben (R)
(Adventure/True Story/Romance)
Starring Tom Cruise and Rosario Dawson
Also Featuring Willem Dafoe and Taryn Manning
Directed by Ron Howard
Screenplay by John Logan and Alexander Payne
Projected Budget Range: $100-109 Million
Planned Release Date: June
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$14.30 million (Opening Weekend)
$101.76 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 15%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 8%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Chris Gore, Film Threat
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Michael O'Sullivan, Washington Post
posted by raaka at 9:15 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
I couldn't get this stinker to make money. Those are the best Oscar chances though.
posted by raaka at 9:16 PM on June 26, 2003
posted by raaka at 9:16 PM on June 26, 2003
Koyyanisqatsi 2: Death Bots (PG)
(Christmas/Lingering Illness/Revenge Fantasy/Talking Animal)
Starring Vin Diesel and Helen Hunt
Also Featuring James Brolin, Rory Culkin, Jessica Capshaw, and Ann Magnuson
Directed by Ron Howard
Screenplay by David Koepp and Steven Zaillian
Projected Budget Range: $1-10 Million
Planned Release Date: December
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$10.36 million (Opening Weekend)
$93.77 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 15%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 8%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Chris Gore, Film Threat
-----
Ebert liked it? I wasn't planning on any gratuitous nudity, but I suppose I can pencil some in...
posted by phong3d at 9:19 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
(Christmas/Lingering Illness/Revenge Fantasy/Talking Animal)
Starring Vin Diesel and Helen Hunt
Also Featuring James Brolin, Rory Culkin, Jessica Capshaw, and Ann Magnuson
Directed by Ron Howard
Screenplay by David Koepp and Steven Zaillian
Projected Budget Range: $1-10 Million
Planned Release Date: December
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$10.36 million (Opening Weekend)
$93.77 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 15%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 8%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Chris Gore, Film Threat
-----
Ebert liked it? I wasn't planning on any gratuitous nudity, but I suppose I can pencil some in...
posted by phong3d at 9:19 PM on June 26, 2003 [1 favorite]
I find it very, very hard to not click "talking animal".
My Ben Affleck/Jen Tilly animated, talking animal, paranoia, fantasy vehicle "From Dusk till Dawn 12: Apathetic Vampires do Dallas" pulled in 68 million on a budget of less than 1 million. Ebert says its a must-see. You might say "its been done," but you'd be wrong. See, the difference is this one has Ben Affleck and Jennifer TIlly instead of Robert Downey Jr and Jennifer Tilly. Also, vampires.
posted by duckstab at 9:54 PM on June 26, 2003
My Ben Affleck/Jen Tilly animated, talking animal, paranoia, fantasy vehicle "From Dusk till Dawn 12: Apathetic Vampires do Dallas" pulled in 68 million on a budget of less than 1 million. Ebert says its a must-see. You might say "its been done," but you'd be wrong. See, the difference is this one has Ben Affleck and Jennifer TIlly instead of Robert Downey Jr and Jennifer Tilly. Also, vampires.
posted by duckstab at 9:54 PM on June 26, 2003
Bah. Damn Hollywood Cabal won't hire Terry Gilliam.
A pox on them all then!
posted by ursus_comiter at 10:09 PM on June 26, 2003
A pox on them all then!
posted by ursus_comiter at 10:09 PM on June 26, 2003
Pigs in Crisis! (PG)
(Historical Epic/Hostage Drama/Talking Animal)
Starring Vin Diesel and Whoopi Goldberg
Also Featuring Willem Dafoe, Tom Arnold, and Rose McGowan
Directed by Keenen Ivory Wayans
Screenplay by Ted Elliott
Projected Budget Range: $130-139 Million
Planned Release Date: November
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$20.01 million (Opening Weekend)
$117.35 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 4%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: Slim to None
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Ron Wells, Film Threat
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Michael O'Sullivan, Washington Post
What a wonderful link... thanks mediareport.
posted by xbonesgt at 11:10 PM on June 26, 2003
(Historical Epic/Hostage Drama/Talking Animal)
Starring Vin Diesel and Whoopi Goldberg
Also Featuring Willem Dafoe, Tom Arnold, and Rose McGowan
Directed by Keenen Ivory Wayans
Screenplay by Ted Elliott
Projected Budget Range: $130-139 Million
Planned Release Date: November
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$20.01 million (Opening Weekend)
$117.35 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 4%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: Slim to None
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Ron Wells, Film Threat
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Michael O'Sullivan, Washington Post
What a wonderful link... thanks mediareport.
posted by xbonesgt at 11:10 PM on June 26, 2003
What the hell, I'll play...
"Vampire Chronicles: Power, Love & Betrayal" (R)
(Historical Epic/Revenge Fantasy/Horror/Vampire)
Starring Russell Crowe and Halle Berry
Also Featuring John Rhys-Davies, James Marsden, Elizabeth Hurley, and Angelina Jolie
Screenplay and Directed by M. Night Shyamalan
Projected Budget Range: $20-29 Million
Planned Release Date: July
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$20.08 million (Opening Weekend)
$86.04 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 9%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 4%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Rita Kempley, Washington Post
Not bad for a muscles-and-babes vampire costume flick; at least it pretty well paid for itself in the first weekend. Should also pick up a fair bit extra when we release the limited edition DVD with lots of extra goodies and deleted scenes.
"Vampire Chronicles: Power, Love & Betrayal" -- Coming soon to a multiplex near you!!
Fun stuff - thanks for the link!
posted by Jade Dragon at 11:39 PM on June 26, 2003
"Vampire Chronicles: Power, Love & Betrayal" (R)
(Historical Epic/Revenge Fantasy/Horror/Vampire)
Starring Russell Crowe and Halle Berry
Also Featuring John Rhys-Davies, James Marsden, Elizabeth Hurley, and Angelina Jolie
Screenplay and Directed by M. Night Shyamalan
Projected Budget Range: $20-29 Million
Planned Release Date: July
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$20.08 million (Opening Weekend)
$86.04 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 9%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 4%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Rita Kempley, Washington Post
Not bad for a muscles-and-babes vampire costume flick; at least it pretty well paid for itself in the first weekend. Should also pick up a fair bit extra when we release the limited edition DVD with lots of extra goodies and deleted scenes.
"Vampire Chronicles: Power, Love & Betrayal" -- Coming soon to a multiplex near you!!
Fun stuff - thanks for the link!
posted by Jade Dragon at 11:39 PM on June 26, 2003
If you like this then check out the Fantasy film league, where you have a budget, pick your director and stars and then your film makes money based on the actual grosses of films your cast star in over the coming months. Pointless but way too much fun.
"the bell jar: the musical" will work, dammit.
posted by ciderwoman at 8:02 AM on June 27, 2003
"the bell jar: the musical" will work, dammit.
posted by ciderwoman at 8:02 AM on June 27, 2003
This is the most fun ever. Thanks a lot for ruining my productive weekend, mediareport.
posted by hilatron at 8:23 AM on June 27, 2003
posted by hilatron at 8:23 AM on June 27, 2003
Pickled Eggs (R)
(Caper Comedy)
Starring Shawn Wayans and Helen Hunt
Also Featuring Colin Farrell, Derek Jacobi, Eliza Dushku, and Emily Watson
Directed by John Woo
Screenplay by Louis C.K. (only because we couldn't get Esterhaus)
Projected Budget Range: $20-29 Million
Planned Release Date: January
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$17.46 million (Opening Weekend)
$69.90 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 3%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: Slim to None
"These eggs! They're pickled!" The catchphrase that will be on everyone's lips...
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 8:40 AM on June 27, 2003
(Caper Comedy)
Starring Shawn Wayans and Helen Hunt
Also Featuring Colin Farrell, Derek Jacobi, Eliza Dushku, and Emily Watson
Directed by John Woo
Screenplay by Louis C.K. (only because we couldn't get Esterhaus)
Projected Budget Range: $20-29 Million
Planned Release Date: January
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$17.46 million (Opening Weekend)
$69.90 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 3%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: Slim to None
"These eggs! They're pickled!" The catchphrase that will be on everyone's lips...
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 8:40 AM on June 27, 2003
"These eggs! They're pickled!" The catchphrase that will be on everyone's lips...
Argh. Now I've got to go and come up with movies titled You're Wrong! No, You're Wrong! and So This Broom, It Vibrates? and Do You Need To See A Movie To Like This Film? Because I Do Not See Movies.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:25 AM on June 27, 2003
Argh. Now I've got to go and come up with movies titled You're Wrong! No, You're Wrong! and So This Broom, It Vibrates? and Do You Need To See A Movie To Like This Film? Because I Do Not See Movies.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 9:25 AM on June 27, 2003
Victorian Girls Gone Wilde: The Musical (R)
(Fantasy/Lingering Illness/Period Drama/Musical)
Starring Ewan McGregor and Cameron Diaz
Also Featuring Willem Dafoe and Liv Tyler
Directed by Cameron Crowe
Screenplay by Peter Jackson and M. Night Shyamalan
Projected Budget Range: $140-149 Million
Planned Release Date: May
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$13.37 million (Opening Weekend)
$105.19 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 14%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 3%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Jay Carr, Boston Globe
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Ron Wells, Film Threat
posted by drezdn at 11:05 PM on June 28, 2003
(Fantasy/Lingering Illness/Period Drama/Musical)
Starring Ewan McGregor and Cameron Diaz
Also Featuring Willem Dafoe and Liv Tyler
Directed by Cameron Crowe
Screenplay by Peter Jackson and M. Night Shyamalan
Projected Budget Range: $140-149 Million
Planned Release Date: May
Projected Box Office Receipts:
$13.37 million (Opening Weekend)
$105.19 million (Total Domestic Gross)
Chance of getting Oscar Nomination: 14%
Chance of winning at least one Oscar: 3%
Critic Most Likely to Praise: Jay Carr, Boston Globe
Critic Most Likely to Skewer: Ron Wells, Film Threat
posted by drezdn at 11:05 PM on June 28, 2003
and while Ron Wells hated my other film, he enjoys
Coupon the Movie: The Ride: The Movie:The Musical (PG)
(Caper Comedy/Chase/Family/Paranoia)
odd.
posted by drezdn at 11:16 PM on June 28, 2003
Coupon the Movie: The Ride: The Movie:The Musical (PG)
(Caper Comedy/Chase/Family/Paranoia)
odd.
posted by drezdn at 11:16 PM on June 28, 2003
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posted by frykitty at 6:38 PM on June 26, 2003