New CA Gov Poll
September 9, 2003 12:52 PM   Subscribe

Don't just stand there - Bustamante!
Arnold Schwarzenegger would lose to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante by five precentage points if the election were held today, according to a Field Poll of likely voters released today. Margin of error: 4.5%. How useful are polls like this when there are so many undecided factors still floating about? Poll tabs and analysis here. [PDF]
posted by GriffX (38 comments total)
They're extremely useful. Without them, reporters would have to cover some of the actual issues. Then where would we be?
posted by rcade at 1:04 PM on September 9, 2003

Who's undecided? I'm writing in Don Novello (the bastids tried to keep him off the ballot, but I won't be fooled!). "Find-a the pope in the pizza!"
posted by scody at 1:10 PM on September 9, 2003

Bustamante came across horribly in the debate if you ask me (and I know you all did)
posted by zeoslap at 1:17 PM on September 9, 2003

1. Bustamonte ahead by 5%; now the other GOP guy out and he had 5%=even, possibly.
2. Bustamonte did horrible job in debate. Arnold did much better by not being there or saying anything. Moral?
posted by Postroad at 1:21 PM on September 9, 2003

Maria Shriver only lasted 10 minutes at a 45-minute Wal-Mart appearance before being whisked away in her SUV.

Go Gary Coleman!
posted by PrinceValium at 1:25 PM on September 9, 2003

Was it Gary who invented the Coleman lantern?
posted by Postroad at 1:28 PM on September 9, 2003

..... MONDALE!
posted by shadow45 at 1:38 PM on September 9, 2003

The Field Poll, the latest one showing Bustamante up five points, actually is somewhat relevant, due to its remarkable accuracy.

Of course, with an election as bizarre as this one, it becomes increasingly difficult for any measure to be accurate.
posted by nath at 2:54 PM on September 9, 2003

Saw the Maria news, the reporters were like, why at a Walmart, she's never even set foot inside one so why try to campaign for the Arnold there.

I don't know, I think I'm voting for the girl who's selling Georgy for Governor thong undies to fund her campaign.

Or wait, nevermind, I'm voting against the recall altogether.
posted by fenriq at 3:10 PM on September 9, 2003

Anyone wanna tackle the whole Bustamonte-MECHA thing?
posted by swerdloff at 3:16 PM on September 9, 2003

Check out the Daily Kos, he generally does good poll analysis.

(Warning: hard-core Democrat site!)

posted by sic at 4:02 PM on September 9, 2003

I heard George Will on some right-wing squawk radio show, and he's standing by his position that Davis will pull it out in the end.
posted by RavinDave at 4:20 PM on September 9, 2003

Or wait, nevermind, I'm voting against the recall altogether.

Remember, Californians, if you're going to bother to go out to vote at all, you get to vote for your choice of a replacement Governor even if you vote against recalling Davis (Weird thing about the California Recall #17).

Bustamente originally signed up as "insurance" for the Democratic Party: If Davis loses with 45% and most of those who vote for him also support his 'designated back-up' candidate, he'll be a shoo-in (in theory).

George Will... standing by his position that Davis will pull it out in the end.

Anybody remember the last time George Will made a non-mainstream prediction that was proven right?
genuine inquiry, not a snarky comment
posted by wendell at 4:42 PM on September 9, 2003

Anyone wanna tackle the whole Bustamonte-MECHA thing?

"Aztlán, a nation of the Chicanos to be forged from the American states of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas."

"Like most third-world liberation movements, MEChA aligns itself with other “struggling” peoples, most notably, “the Palestinians.” "

While supporting the candidacy of Cruz Bustamante, “La Raza,” that is, “The (Chicano) Race,” accuses the Jews of creating the “manjewrian candidate” of Gray Davis. The assertion is: California Governor Gray Davis is a brainwashed automaton fashioned by the Jews to do their bidding. Further examination of their propaganda reveals a fully developed ideology of rejectionism and Jew baiting matched only by the PLO.

Sick freaks.
posted by hama7 at 4:45 PM on September 9, 2003

Is there any evidence that Bustamente wants to carve a Chicano state out of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas? Or that he's ever heard the Gray-Davis-is-a-brainwashed-automaton theory? Or is this a synthetic issue being pushed by conservatives?
posted by subgenius at 5:01 PM on September 9, 2003

Uh, yeah ok.

Here's a non-troll link that tries to clear up the whole Mecha "scandal".

Talk about sick freaks....

On preview: of course this is a bullshit, subgenius, consider the source.
posted by sic at 5:06 PM on September 9, 2003

From the previous link, here's what one former Mecha member says on conservative web log Tacitus:

When I was in high school, I joined MEChA for one semester. It’s actually pretty funny in retrospect because I’m not Mexican. But I grew up in Highland Park (Northeast Los Angeles) and almost EVERYONE I knew was Mexican, or Chicano, as was hip at the time. I was/am Dominican, but all my friends were Mexican, so I was a Mexican when it came to the culture and customs of the neighborhood. At that time (late 70’s) MEChA, at my high school, was more a positive organization than it is today. There were many Mexican gangs in the area, and MEChA counseled to “Get an education. Stay away from gangs. Stay away from drugs. Don’t drink. Be responsible. Make something of yourself.”

I only stopped going to the meetings because they interferred with my sports teams. But back then it was a very positive experience.

I’d hate to think that someone could demean what I’ve accomplished by using my membership in MEChA 20+ years ago to “smear” me.

Hate mongerers, indeed.
posted by sic at 5:11 PM on September 9, 2003

Here's more from the same link and this pretty much sums up what I think about this absurd issue:

If I were of a conspiratorial mindset, I’d start to think about this: Cruz Bustamante is a moderate Democrat with a thirty year political career. As far as I know, no one even tried to accuse him of Latino extremisism on the basis of his record in public service. He’s so moderate that he’s endorsed Joe Lieberman for president.

And yet many on the right are trying to tie him to a repugnant extremist philosophy. The only evidence that they have is his involvement, thirty years ago, in an organization that no one considered extremist a few weeks ago. (I can’t blame them; it’s more fun than trying to justify voting for an actor with no budget plan, no ideas, and no political exprience.)

I might start to think that the right was engaged in a cynical smear job, blurring the difference between mainstream and extremist Latino organizations in order to hurt a winning Latino Democrat. I’d start to think that just about anyone who was a member of a Latino student group in college could be tarred in exactly the same way. I might think that if they succeed with Bustamante, they’ll do it the next Latino Democrat, and the next one, and the next one.

posted by sic at 5:24 PM on September 9, 2003

Funny, I'd think that the "left" would be just as adept at addressing its own failings as the "right" has been... (Trent Lott springs immediately to mind)

Assuming it's a nonissue, why not renounce the openly racist notion of Aztlan?

I mean, Robert Byrd (another Democrat, and a former Klansman) has little trouble from the "right" because he renounced his racist past. What's the issue that Bustamonte can't or won't?

The issue isn't that he has a checkered past - we all do. It's that he doesn't renounce it.

If I was of a conspiratorial mindset, I'd believe that this was because certain members of the "Left" think that it's ok and fine to have certain political beliefs even if they're racist, as long as they're the right SORT of racist.

Is it safe to say that if it came out that any of the Republican candidates in the recall belonged to racist groups in their youth and didn't disavow that as youthful indiscretion now that the "left" would be all over them faster than you can say klan? Or is one racist group with a supremacy ideology somehow better/different than another?
posted by swerdloff at 6:59 PM on September 9, 2003

Swerdloff: Why should the "left" be "adept" at addressing your strawmen?

You're supposed to be a bright young lad -- the dog isn't barking. Find another fake story to complain about.
posted by subgenius at 9:38 PM on September 9, 2003

Or, less snarkily: Man am I sick of these have-you-stopped-beating-your-wife? stories. Can we at least cite to the "failings" and "racist notion[s]" and whatnot that people are supposed to apologize for?

posted by subgenius at 9:53 PM on September 9, 2003

Swerdloff, if your argument applied, I'd be in complete agreement, but the problem is Bustamante has NOT been connected with the notion of Aztlan. This is at the crux of this non-conspiracy. Please read the link that I provided so that you can understand what I'm talking about, it directly addresses this issue. MECHA is not a centrally organized group with a single, well-defined agenda. Like many locally run youth groups the goals vary from chapter to chapter but it seems that even so the group almost exclusively promoted such things as staying off of drugs, going to school, staying out of gangs and is open to ALL races. If this is what Bustamante was doing in MECHA then why the hell should seperate himself from that? On the contrary, he should be damn proud of it.

The fact that the Republicans are trying to stain this largely benevolent group because some weird racist splinter group,Voz de Atzlan, some of whose tiny number of members may or may not have at one time attended a totally open MECHA chapter is pretty transparent. And the fact that some Republicans go so far as to compare this group, which seems to be nothing more than a stupid mission statement and that has never actually had the courage to do anything violent, to the Klu Klux Klan, an organized national hate group that has a long history of racially motivated violent acts, is PATHETIC.

And let's be clear about another thing, Lott's career was not ended becuse he once was a member of the KKK in the 1960s which he later refused to denounce. He committed political suicide by his own racist remarks in a public forum in 2003. When Bustamate, after 30 years of moderate politics, starts spewing hatred, I'll be in agreement that he needs to go down. If that doesn't happen, just judge the man on his actions, not some made up controversy that insults him and the Latino community.
posted by sic at 2:33 AM on September 10, 2003

I forgot to mention Byrd. If I could count the number of ad hominem attacks on Byrd for his racist past by right-wingers on Metafilter I'd be a supercomputer. The Right, if you include non-beltway politicians like yourself, never tires of beating that old horse any time the senator criticizes Bush for lying to the nation.
posted by sic at 2:38 AM on September 10, 2003

And just in case you are unable or unwilling to read the link I provided, here is who the Voz de Atzlan is endorsing in the California election (it aint Bustamante):

August 11, 2003

…Once again, Mexican-Americans are caught in a quandary within the two party dictatorship. Cruz Bustamante of the Democratic Party does not seem to be a viable alternative. He appears to be a mere hispanic “replica” of the incompetent and crooked Gray Davis who is called “Our Jewish Governor” by the Jews of California.

Well, maybe Bustamante isn’t sufficiently hard-core for la Voz. Fair enough. But at the very least, surely Bustamante’s fellow travellers in Voz de Atzlán would encourage Latinos to support Bustamante in the recall?

La Voz de Aztlán Editorial
Los Angeles, Alta California
August 7, 2003

…There is no question that the incompetent and corrupt Gray Davis will be ousted. Most Californians would like to recall the entire current legislature as well. We are fed up with the entire bunch of sleazy politicians. They have sold out the interests of the people to greedy special interests. It is time to “terminate” all of them. Perhaps, “The Terminator” who is already a millionaire and not a professional politician can accomplish this on behalf of the people.

Wait, that makes it sound like they’re supporting Schwarzenegger. Not Bustamante.

posted by sic at 2:47 AM on September 10, 2003

Mecha in fact is just a fun loving crew of youngsters that just wants to go out and have a good time and get along with everyone

except those gringos.
posted by shoos at 3:04 AM on September 10, 2003

Shoos, in answer to your weak little troll, see all my previous posts and read the link.

By the way, shouldn't there be a Godwin's law equivalent to making absurdly exaggerated comparisons to the KKK?
posted by sic at 5:12 AM on September 10, 2003

sic: what i respect about you most is that you would never stoop to ad hominem.

by the way, those are their own words.
posted by shoos at 5:57 AM on September 10, 2003

The problem, Shoos, is that apparently "they" are endorsing Schwarzenegger.

Should the whole process grind to a halt so Schwarzenegger can disclaim his affiliation with Voz de Atzlan?
posted by subgenius at 6:59 AM on September 10, 2003

wait, did I say something about Schwarzenegger?
posted by shoos at 7:27 AM on September 10, 2003

I think you need to look up ad hominem if you are insinuating that I attacked you using that particular tactic. I did not. All of my responses on this thread have been to what people have posted, not who they are.

by the way, those are their own words

Again, I point to all of my other posts and the link that I provided. MECHa did not write the Atzlan mission statement, even if ONE chapter out of the hundreds that exist in universities and high schools all over America has a link to it. In fact they have no formal mission statement, no centralized theme, no constitution. To refer to MECHa as a unified entity is unrealistic. Did you check out the links to other MECHa chapters on that page you posted? I couldn't find a single one that works! Hardly a tightly orgnaized group.

More importantly, and this is what every Republican smear campaigner is studiously avoiding, Bustamante has never displayed any extremist or racist tendencies political or otherwise. He is a moderate. He endorsed Lieberman for christ's sake. The MECHA chapter that he took part in, and the real character of MECHA, is postive, a way for latino youth to get together and keep their noses clean.

All of this desperate reaching to create a scandal around Bustamante about something, anything, is just another smear campaign and is transparent to anybody has watched the Republican party use these tactics time ater time whenever they are in trouble.
posted by sic at 7:59 AM on September 10, 2003

I'll admit that Mecha didn't write the statement. They do, however, certainly appear to have a certain affinity for it.

posted by shoos at 8:41 AM on September 10, 2003

Hmm, no one's mentioned Arnold's problem with women... voters. That's what you get when you return the term 'gangbanger' to it's original meaning.

See also AM radio's gender gap may be playing a surprisingly substantial role in the recall campaign.

Finally, and far less obviously, there's the pivotal role that AM talk radio has played in promoting Schwarzenegger's candidacy. It has been true for some time that AM talk is almost entirely the preserve of the right wing. Within the universe of California media, conservative radio talk show hosts have been the recall's most consistent and passionate advocates. When the majority of them also appeared to make "Arnold" their candidate early in the race, it seemed a clear win for Schwarzenegger.

But, as the Times and Field polls suggest, it may have been a Pyrrhic victory. Like the action film audience, AM talk radio's listeners are overwhelmingly male. The prevailing industry wisdom holds that the talk audience is 60% male to 40% female. However, many shows now have gender gaps the size of sports talk, where 75% of the listeners are men. An unnamed "senior advisor" to Schwarzenegger's campaign conceded to the New York Times on Tuesday that "Arnold's" reliance on friendly talk show hosts has alienated many women.

And don't forget Carnival In Rio

The last shoe has not fallen for Gropenator Schwarzenvontittygrabber in regards to past memories--expect more juice soon.
posted by y2karl at 8:43 AM on September 10, 2003

/still waiting for someone to explain what this has to do with Bustamante (as opposed to, say, random college chapters or Arnold Schwarzenegger)
posted by subgenius at 10:19 AM on September 10, 2003

As I've said, subgenius, that is the part that Republican smear campaigners studiously avoid.

posted by sic at 11:41 AM on September 10, 2003

By the way Shoos, have you looked up ad hominem yet?

Hint: It is at the heart of all your criticism of Bustamante.

posted by sic at 11:49 AM on September 10, 2003

Thanks for the links shoos.

MECHA Yale chapter mission statement:

We MEChA de Yale, recognize the history of Chicanos at Yale that have brought us here today. We realize that we are faced with circumstances that are unique to our region. MEChA de Yale seeks to foster, empower and strengthen a community in the Yale - New Haven area, through communication and cooperation while respecting all segments of our community. MEChA de Yale seeks to promote social, cultural, political and educational empowerment and awareness.

Call out the national gaurd, sounds like a (very polite) revolution is brewing.
posted by sic at 11:57 AM on September 10, 2003

By the way Shoos, have you looked up ad hominem yet?

Hint: It is at the heart of all your criticism of Bustamante.

Can you find just one sentence anywhere on Metafilter in which I've said even a single word about Bustamante?
posted by shoos at 3:18 PM on September 10, 2003

I'll take that as a no.
posted by shoos at 3:10 PM on September 11, 2003

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