Someone set us up the bomb!
November 6, 2003 2:54 PM   Subscribe

The Ideosphere, a prediction market like the one the Pentagon wanted to set up, predicts a 20% chance of the non-test use of a nuclear device on U.S. soil by 2010. Other predictions include the likelihood of various candidates winning the next Presidential election, as well as the number of troops killed in Iraq and the chance of a human clone by 2005.
posted by monju_bosatsu (7 comments total)
Isn't fear mongering fun? Especially for profit.
posted by Cerebus at 3:22 PM on November 6, 2003

It's like the stock market game for high school debaters.
posted by .kobayashi. at 3:24 PM on November 6, 2003

Well, they were right about Ellen.
posted by rschram at 3:37 PM on November 6, 2003

This is already a little 404'd. Check out the "claims waiting to be approved" list, which includes "Condi Rice deposed by 8/15/03".

I predict that the people who spend time on this won't be getting good sex. Ever.
posted by Sidhedevil at 4:42 PM on November 6, 2003

So what would insider trading and stock fraud look like in a prediction market?
posted by srboisvert at 7:19 PM on November 6, 2003

This will save DARPA a lot of money. Now they can focus on other scary stuff.
posted by denbot at 9:59 PM on November 6, 2003

srboisvert: It looks something like this.
posted by sonofsamiam at 12:32 PM on November 7, 2003

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