Ouch, my head hurts from thinking too much!
January 22, 2004 6:17 PM Subscribe
Thoughts on organizations, markets and the long term. CSFB gathers a number of luminaries in academia and business (Bonabeau, Bingham, DePodesta, Enriquez, Harrington, McGahan, Schrag, Strogatz) to discuss informational diversity, viewing markets as complex adaptive systems, global climate change over millenia, and the imapact of genome science among other ideas.
via JoHo
via JoHo
I just read Juan Enriquez "As the Future Catches You". He makes a case for other science civilizations that have collapsed in history (Persia, Asia) and the dangers of the USA following the same path and gives some examples how it could happen. One is that the amount of data and processing in Genetics research is outpacing Moores Law and will eventually catch up and surpass computing power and that Pharmacies will no longer be making one-drug-fits-all (monolithic broadcast model) rather customized drugs for individuals and the profit margins will collapse.
Reminds me of the arguments against the Internet in the late 80s that it would destroy the existing order. One thing Enriquez does not take into account is the market forces of the USA allow for creative destruction, unlike in Persia and ancient China.
posted by stbalbach at 6:56 PM on January 22, 2004
Reminds me of the arguments against the Internet in the late 80s that it would destroy the existing order. One thing Enriquez does not take into account is the market forces of the USA allow for creative destruction, unlike in Persia and ancient China.
posted by stbalbach at 6:56 PM on January 22, 2004
"Science fiction is a reflection of its own time, not the future."
I rate the future with several scales.
The first scale is "reshuffling the deck". Country 'A' was ascendent, now country 'B' is ascendent. Ordinary and normal, boring even. Much like sporting events. Someone wins and someone loses. This will always take place, just plug in the new names when the time comes. Almost all "history" is in this scale.
The second scale is "demographic adjustment". Human species-scale events. Mostly disasters and population explosions.
The third scale is "competition". When either man or nature creates a different species to compete with man.
Or more than one competitive species.
The fourth scale is "threatened annihilation". The eventual cataclysmic event that mankind can either fight or flee the planet from. (Which presupposes we are able to flee.)
posted by kablam at 7:03 PM on January 22, 2004
I rate the future with several scales.
The first scale is "reshuffling the deck". Country 'A' was ascendent, now country 'B' is ascendent. Ordinary and normal, boring even. Much like sporting events. Someone wins and someone loses. This will always take place, just plug in the new names when the time comes. Almost all "history" is in this scale.
The second scale is "demographic adjustment". Human species-scale events. Mostly disasters and population explosions.
The third scale is "competition". When either man or nature creates a different species to compete with man.
Or more than one competitive species.
The fourth scale is "threatened annihilation". The eventual cataclysmic event that mankind can either fight or flee the planet from. (Which presupposes we are able to flee.)
posted by kablam at 7:03 PM on January 22, 2004
Anybody want to flip or trade concept cards?
Great post Gen. Future guest I would love them to have is
Thomas Homer-Dixon author of the book "The Ingenuity Gap : Facing the Economic, Environmental, and Other Challenges of an Increasingly Complex and Unpredictable Future "
posted by thedailygrowl at 11:03 PM on January 22, 2004
Great post Gen. Future guest I would love them to have is
Thomas Homer-Dixon author of the book "The Ingenuity Gap : Facing the Economic, Environmental, and Other Challenges of an Increasingly Complex and Unpredictable Future "
posted by thedailygrowl at 11:03 PM on January 22, 2004
Most of that piece read like an incoherent stream of consciousness - I like it.
posted by VeGiTo at 11:15 PM on January 22, 2004
posted by VeGiTo at 11:15 PM on January 22, 2004
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"information
aldiversity"posted by gen at 6:20 PM on January 22, 2004