What else are you investing in?
I do some private investments. I have been fascinated the last two or three years with predictive markets. Predictive markets, on the one hand, is gambling, but in another sense it reflects the consensus view as people put money on an outcome that looks like it has some information to it. I follow these companies quite carefully.
What's being predicted?
Hillary Clinton is the most favored Democratic presidential candidate and bird flu is likely to arrive in the United States before the end of this calendar year.
Do you use the information in some contrary way?
You would think so, wouldn't you? Yet I haven't seen a case where 100% of the people were thinking one thing and taking the bet on the other side would be worthwhile.
Academics are enamored with this business, because it gives them much information about forecasts.
Companies use it for product research. They'll give their employees a certain amount of money to wager on which product is likely to be their best product and where they should be putting their research and so on. That is a very sharply growing field for companies.
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