But will it work on the subset of searches sent via avian carriers?
November 11, 2008 1:03 PM Subscribe
Google Flu Trends brings us epidemiology through search analytics. The prevalence of certain search terms seems to be a good predictor of CDC flu reports a couple of weeks later. The New York Times has a story on this project.
It's cool, but the FAQ doesn't say if it's just the gross number of flu search terms per state, or if they're taking care to account for internet penetration and population in these numbers. I'm thinking they are, but I'd like to know more clearly.
Still, it's cool to see Google finding all these corrolations. I remember reading an article from a science magazine speculating that in the future rather than using the scientific method, computers will find corrolations between data streams, and then form theories that way, disposing and keeping the theories as more and more data confirms or refutes the ideas. The reason for it is that the world is getting more and more complicated and generating more data than humans can process, but that more and more data also happens to be public and machine readable.
Seems a bit far out to me, but if it could at least suggest possible relationships scientists could test out, it could speed up the rate that science advances.
posted by mccarty.tim at 1:21 PM on November 11, 2008
Still, it's cool to see Google finding all these corrolations. I remember reading an article from a science magazine speculating that in the future rather than using the scientific method, computers will find corrolations between data streams, and then form theories that way, disposing and keeping the theories as more and more data confirms or refutes the ideas. The reason for it is that the world is getting more and more complicated and generating more data than humans can process, but that more and more data also happens to be public and machine readable.
Seems a bit far out to me, but if it could at least suggest possible relationships scientists could test out, it could speed up the rate that science advances.
posted by mccarty.tim at 1:21 PM on November 11, 2008
One more thing for me to keep my eye on and, at a moment's notice, stock up on canned food, get masks, and get ready to bunker down for a while.
posted by Astro Zombie at 1:30 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by Astro Zombie at 1:30 PM on November 11, 2008
Watch out, y'all! Don't come visit us in Mississippi, where we're a "scary" moderate blue level.
But honestly, just the last two weeks in central Mississippi, anywhere you go, you see a "Flu shots are here!" poster or announcement. And just the other night, the state dept. of health aired a TV commercial for getting a shot. Any connection? A generalized TV ad with no real data yields nervous people hitting Google for location details and news?
posted by fijiwriter at 1:33 PM on November 11, 2008
But honestly, just the last two weeks in central Mississippi, anywhere you go, you see a "Flu shots are here!" poster or announcement. And just the other night, the state dept. of health aired a TV commercial for getting a shot. Any connection? A generalized TV ad with no real data yields nervous people hitting Google for location details and news?
posted by fijiwriter at 1:33 PM on November 11, 2008
Google Trends. A great way to see what people are searching for Sunday morning to undo what they did Saturday night.
posted by ALongDecember at 1:37 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by ALongDecember at 1:37 PM on November 11, 2008
Try that again. A great way to see what people are searching for Sunday morning to undo what they did Saturday night.
posted by ALongDecember at 1:39 PM on November 11, 2008 [11 favorites]
posted by ALongDecember at 1:39 PM on November 11, 2008 [11 favorites]
One more thing for me to keep my eye on and, at a moment's notice, stock up on canned food, get masks, and get ready to bunker down for a while.
You're probably okay, for now.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 1:44 PM on November 11, 2008 [1 favorite]
You're probably okay, for now.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 1:44 PM on November 11, 2008 [1 favorite]
This is awesome
posted by ofthestrait at 2:04 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by ofthestrait at 2:04 PM on November 11, 2008
Get your damn flu shot please. love, emergency department
posted by gramcracker at 2:07 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by gramcracker at 2:07 PM on November 11, 2008
Hari Seldon would be proud. Psychohistory is here... now if we could just get the Singularity, we'd be all set.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:12 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by Meatbomb at 2:12 PM on November 11, 2008
Is Google Flu in any way to Google Fu?
posted by christopherious at 2:43 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by christopherious at 2:43 PM on November 11, 2008
Following ALongDecember's searches, consider this one for pregnancy test, planned parenthood, and abortion. They all peak a day or two after searches for Plan B and morning after pill. Man, the tales of woe behind those graphs...
posted by jedicus at 3:18 PM on November 11, 2008 [1 favorite]
posted by jedicus at 3:18 PM on November 11, 2008 [1 favorite]
Ha！You call that Google Flu? You think your Google Flu better than my Google Flu? You must be tired of living!
*whack!* *cough* *thwoosh!* *sneeze* *clang!*
posted by flapjax at midnite at 3:24 PM on November 11, 2008
*whack!* *cough* *thwoosh!* *sneeze* *clang!*
posted by flapjax at midnite at 3:24 PM on November 11, 2008
I remember reading an article from a science magazine speculating that in the future rather than using the scientific method, computers will find corrolations between data streams, and then form theories that way, disposing and keeping the theories as more and more data confirms or refutes the ideas.
DO NOT WANT. As a tool, yes, but as replacing you know ... rational thought and logic? No.
This thing specifically is fun, but remember it's only reporting how many people search for things. With the flu it looks like the trick works, but that doesn't make it universal.
For one thing, samples are biased towards ignorance of the subject - if I know about something or even know a more appropriate place to find information about it, I'm less likely to type it into Google.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 3:27 PM on November 11, 2008
DO NOT WANT. As a tool, yes, but as replacing you know ... rational thought and logic? No.
This thing specifically is fun, but remember it's only reporting how many people search for things. With the flu it looks like the trick works, but that doesn't make it universal.
For one thing, samples are biased towards ignorance of the subject - if I know about something or even know a more appropriate place to find information about it, I'm less likely to type it into Google.
posted by TheOnlyCoolTim at 3:27 PM on November 11, 2008
@mccarty.tim: It actually does say that they establish a baseline first and then use the deviation from that baseline to gauge activity.
posted by renataskyfire at 3:46 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by renataskyfire at 3:46 PM on November 11, 2008
At the moment, Number 8 in Google Hot Trends is "flu symptoms" ("Hotness: On Fire"). This would make me worried about a possible national outbreak of flu were it not for the fact that Number 7 has something to do with Beaver's older TV brother being a noted sculptor.
posted by twoleftfeet at 4:07 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by twoleftfeet at 4:07 PM on November 11, 2008
OK, you can download the raw data. That is awesome.
posted by effugas at 4:20 PM on November 11, 2008
posted by effugas at 4:20 PM on November 11, 2008
Flu is nothing.
Tell me when they start tracking zombie symptoms.
posted by mrzarquon at 4:30 PM on November 11, 2008 [1 favorite]
Tell me when they start tracking zombie symptoms.
posted by mrzarquon at 4:30 PM on November 11, 2008 [1 favorite]
So there are people out there that have to google what to do when they have the flu? Seems a little like googling "chicken bone stuck in throat can't breathe," but I guess if people post to AskMe about sudden blindness...
Drudge just a while ago went all alarmist crazy fringe...
Now I know my shocked face was here somewhere a minute ago.
posted by DU at 4:41 PM on November 11, 2008
Drudge just a while ago went all alarmist crazy fringe...
Now I know my shocked face was here somewhere a minute ago.
posted by DU at 4:41 PM on November 11, 2008
So there are people out there that have to google what to do when they have the flu? Seems a little like googling "chicken bone stuck in throat can't breathe"
Duh. That's what Ask MetaFilter is for.
posted by rokusan at 7:43 PM on November 11, 2008
Duh. That's what Ask MetaFilter is for.
posted by rokusan at 7:43 PM on November 11, 2008
this is pretty wonderful that google has done this. the methodology lies within a type of disease surveillance called "syndromic surveillance" where you use indirect measures of disease "syndromes" from various datastreams to potentially predict early outbreaks or seasonal trends.
i perform similar analyses every day for a health department and am very impressed and grateful that google.org has been using their resources for the same purposes
now if they could only make some of their finance graphing code open source...
posted by sentinel chicken at 11:22 PM on November 11, 2008
i perform similar analyses every day for a health department and am very impressed and grateful that google.org has been using their resources for the same purposes
now if they could only make some of their finance graphing code open source...
posted by sentinel chicken at 11:22 PM on November 11, 2008
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posted by xmutex at 1:20 PM on November 11, 2008