LA Missle

November 9, 2010 9:39 AM

OK, was it one of you guys? An unknown somebody apparently launched a missile in LA last night. It wasn't me. Ideas on who did it or how we can figure out who did it?
posted by coudal (227 comments total)

My bad.
posted by (Arsenio) Hall and (Warren) Oates at 9:40 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

Presumably it was government sanctioned, or the Americans would be having a mad fit of hysteria. And or once I think their signature hysteria would be justified.
No?
posted by Stagger Lee at 9:41 AM on November 9, 2010

US Lost Command of One-Ninth of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Arsenal Last Saturday

posted by Joe Beese at 9:41 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

I went to bed in NYC, but I am prone to sleepwalking...
posted by hermitosis at 9:42 AM on November 9, 2010

Ideas on who did it or how we can figure out who did it?

I suppose we can start by torturing somebody. That's why we do that, right? To find out stuff like this?
posted by theodolite at 9:42 AM on November 9, 2010 [10 favorites]

I'm glad they showed me a picture of the Pentagon.
posted by MrMoonPie at 9:42 AM on November 9, 2010 [20 favorites]

♔

FREAK OUT

AND

BREAK SHIT
posted by The Whelk at 9:43 AM on November 9, 2010 [126 favorites]

Random act of culture.
posted by found missing at 9:43 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

Oh, I "launched a missile" last night, if you know what I mean.

I don't know what I mean.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:43 AM on November 9, 2010 [41 favorites]

Was it in the shape of an "i"?
posted by chavenet at 9:44 AM on November 9, 2010

Better question: Where did it LAND?
posted by Stagger Lee at 9:46 AM on November 9, 2010 [22 favorites]

Stagger Lee: "Presumably it was government sanctioned."

Yeah, but which government?

I wonder if there are some attack sub crews rushing out to sea right now.
posted by sharkfu at 9:46 AM on November 9, 2010

seen on reddit:

NOTAM for LA.

KZLA LOS ANGELES A2832/10 - THE FOLLOWING RESTRICTIONS ARE REQUIRED DUE TO NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER WEAPONS DIVISION ACTIVATION OF W537. IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY, ALL NON-PARTICIPATING PILOTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID W537. IFR TRAFFIC UNDER ATC JURISDICTION SHOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARANCE AROUND W537 AND CAE 1176. CAE 1155 WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR OCEANIC TRANSITION. CAE 1316 & CAE 1318 WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR OCEANIC TRANSITION. CAE 1177 WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR OCEANIC TRANSITION. W537 ACTIVE, CAE 1176 CLOSED. SURFACE - FL390, 09 NOV 20:00 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 08 NOV 20:52 2010

However, another commenter notes that this is for tonight, not last night. FWIW.
posted by joshwa at 9:47 AM on November 9, 2010

See? This is exactly what happens when you let them see the big board.
posted by griphus at 9:47 AM on November 9, 2010 [17 favorites]

I'm so sick of local news! Always trying to stir up hysteria about video game violence, the dangers of Myspace, or mysterious unauthorized ballistic missile launches. I'll take my information without the hand-wringing, thank you very much.
posted by sleevener at 9:47 AM on November 9, 2010 [4 favorites]

S/he who smelt it, dealt it. In other words, the smeller is the feller.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 9:48 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Is there any reason why I would expect NBC to know the difference between sight and site?
posted by Devils Rancher at 9:49 AM on November 9, 2010 [9 favorites]

Unexplained high speed projectile? Launched from LA?

Iron Man.
posted by Baby_Balrog at 9:49 AM on November 9, 2010 [25 favorites]

> Better question: Where did it LAND?

Vunce ze rockets are up,
who cares vhere zey komm down.
posted by jfuller at 9:49 AM on November 9, 2010 [26 favorites]

(well, turns out those times are in GMT, but it's still in the future)
posted by joshwa at 9:49 AM on November 9, 2010

The US Air Force has declared that there was no danger to the population, while administration officials said that "at no time did the President's ability [to use the nuclear weapons] decrease."

Oh yes, that was totally my first thought when I heard the USAF had lost control of some ICBMs. "I wonder if Obama can still nuke the Rooskies?!?"
posted by DU at 9:50 AM on November 9, 2010 [6 favorites]

The 10th Regiment of Foot: "S/he who smelt it, dealt it. In other words, the smeller is the feller."


J'ACCUSE!
posted by jquinby at 9:50 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Video here.
posted by chavenet at 9:50 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

I'm glad they showed me a picture of the Pentagon.

There's a Panda Express in the Pentagon.

Why are we allowing the Chinese to compromise our national security?
posted by Joe Beese at 9:50 AM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

Happy World Urbanism Day! Or maybe happy Godfrey of Amiens feast day, a day in which we remember the angry poor and the bishop who preached about better relations between the haves and the have-nots. Oh, or maybe the SoCal pagans were fighting against the memory of Willehad of Bremen, the missionary who destroyed some pagan temples.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:50 AM on November 9, 2010

Another possibility, it would be sophisticated launch just to create a spectacular site in the sky.

Did the missile target your entire proofreading staff? What the hell is that?
posted by Shepherd at 9:51 AM on November 9, 2010 [28 favorites]

The spectacular contrail could easily be seen up in Los Angeles

This is certainly an awkward sentence fragment.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 9:52 AM on November 9, 2010

Oh, I "launched a missile" last night, if you know what I mean.

I did get an erection at the time the article reports the missile as being launched.

I hope it's a coincidence.
posted by Joe Beese at 9:53 AM on November 9, 2010 [11 favorites]

It was the French! Why else would the news call it La missle?

(sorry that was terrible)
posted by Pink Fuzzy Bunny at 9:53 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

SACOM isn't going to have another bring-your-kid-to-work day again anytime soon, I'll bet.
posted by bonehead at 9:53 AM on November 9, 2010 [11 favorites]

The other possibility is that the missile was launched unintentionally. It may have been a screwup. Someone may have simply punched the wrong button.

Another possibility, it would be sophisticated launch just to create a spectacular site in the sky.

That's some stirling copy there, Mr. Stickney.
posted by dudekiller at 9:53 AM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

There's a Panda Express in the Pentagon.

Why are we allowing the Chinese to compromise our national security?

No, you've got it all wrong. It's a test. You see they take all the new employees there, if they refuse or throw up, they know they've got a mole.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 9:54 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

"One pistol... twenty-four rounds of ammo. two medical kits.. one camera... one TX9...."
posted by clavdivs at 9:55 AM on November 9, 2010

Well this is reassuring.
posted by shinybaum at 9:56 AM on November 9, 2010

That's some stirling copy there, Mr. Stickney.

Ahem.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:56 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

NOTICE: This channel is not reporting this to be a Missile event. We are only posting what is being reported in the Mainstream media. This "Missile Launch" could be any number of things. Chemtrail, Contrail or even a false flag event.

I'm thinking it might be the Fail Bomb.
posted by Artw at 9:58 AM on November 9, 2010

Judging by the way the trail (contrail) decays so quickly, long focus, coming out of the sunset at a low angle, the sun is reflecting off the bottom of wings and fuselage: Nothing more than a tired old airliner descending from the West into LA.

But then of course it could be a missile being launched to intercept an giant asteroid that's about to kill us all.
posted by marvin at 9:58 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

It does appear a substantial missile was launched into the skies over Southern California Monday evening but no one in the military is owning up to it yet

How exactly in the goddamned hell does that work?
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 9:58 AM on November 9, 2010

I fucking hate the West Coast, too goddamn missilely out there.
posted by nomadicink at 10:00 AM on November 9, 2010 [12 favorites]

I suppose that Occam's Razor says there was no missile launch, and that it was a slow news day.
...but if it was a missile, I'd still like to know where it landed.
posted by Stagger Lee at 10:00 AM on November 9, 2010

shot across the bow?
posted by clavdivs at 10:00 AM on November 9, 2010

Civil_Disobedient: "How exactly in the goddamned hell does that work?"

Maybe it wasn't our military.
posted by jquinby at 10:01 AM on November 9, 2010

That was me and it wasn't a missle. I drank some cola after having eaten a couple of mentos.
posted by srboisvert at 10:01 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

The time of day was no coincidence. I think it was a photogenic show related to President Obama's visit to India.
posted by Chinese Jet Pilot at 10:01 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

From the OP link:

Another possibility, it would be sophisticated launch just to create a spectacular site in the sky.

Check back for updates on this developing story.

Let me know when it reaches middle school.
posted by joshwa at 10:01 AM on November 9, 2010

On the other hand, there's a whole lot of rocket nerds in SoCal.
posted by rmd1023 at 10:01 AM on November 9, 2010

Please tell me it's not possible to "punch the wrong button" and launch a missile. Please, some military person. I can understand, "punch the wrong button" and activate, say, the fire suppression system. Or the "supper is ready" alert system. Or even the "turn all the lights off in the submarine at once" system.
But I find it incomprehensible that there is a button somewhere on a naval sub that's just, like, the "FIRE ZE MISSILES" button and it's right next to the "turn on the GPS" button and the fm radio volume knob. This is an ICBM, for the love of god. If this was an accidental button push I will be significantly more worried than if it was just a good, old-fashioned supervillain showing off his new underwater battle-machine to impress the visiting evil corporate arms manufacturer.
posted by Baby_Balrog at 10:01 AM on November 9, 2010 [25 favorites]

These New Vegas ads are getitng out of hand.
posted by The Whelk at 10:01 AM on November 9, 2010 [11 favorites]

Soy bomb.
posted by Capt. Renault at 10:04 AM on November 9, 2010 [8 favorites]

Those Chinese sons of a bitches are going down ... Fire z missiles!
posted by youngergirl44 at 10:04 AM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

Sheet guys, who iz shooting at us, fire ze missiles!

But I am le tired.

Well zen have a nap, zen FIRE ZE MISSILES!
posted by Mister Fabulous at 10:05 AM on November 9, 2010 [6 favorites]

I'm confused. If the US Navy's testing an ICBM, they wouldn't do it 35 miles off the coast of Los Angeles, would they? If you're in a stealth ICBM sub and you're purposely doing something that can be seen in a major city, then the logical conclusion is you're doing it in order to be seen.

Is it too far fetched to conclude the Chinese are sending us a message?
posted by sharkfu at 10:05 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Intelligence decreasing chemtrail fired backwards in time.
posted by Artw at 10:06 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

a KCBS helicopter captured a gorgeous shot of a missile taking off into the golden sunset

*snif* so beautiful...
posted by Devils Rancher at 10:06 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

I have 3 working theories.
The Emperor Q shall be arriving soon for our round-robin and i can tell you a few things later that you guys will already have found out about by that time.

-gaff
-experiment
-expensive..."BUBUBUBirdBirdBirdBird, Bird is the word."
posted by clavdivs at 10:07 AM on November 9, 2010

That NOTAM joshwa copied is exactly what you'd expect to see for a planned missile test out of Point Mugu NAS. Warning Area 537 is the right spot, too. The only wrinkle is the time: "09 NOV 20:00 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 08 NOV 20:52 2010". That's for noon to 5pm today and was published at 1pm yesterday (California time). Maybe someone just screwed up the calendar?
posted by Nelson at 10:07 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

Is it too far fetched to conclude the Chinese are sending us a message?

Yes.
At least until there's a shred of evidence to point towards it.
So far all we have is some third hand reports that there might have been something that looked like a missile launch.
posted by Stagger Lee at 10:07 AM on November 9, 2010

One does not simply rocket in Mordor.
posted by tommasz at 10:07 AM on November 9, 2010 [4 favorites]

Please tell me it's not possible to "punch the wrong button" and launch a missile.
i can prove this but i charge 8.50 $ an hour.
posted by clavdivs at 10:08 AM on November 9, 2010

Baby Balrog, I think it's more like this.
posted by MrMoonPie at 10:08 AM on November 9, 2010

I wonder if there are some attack sub crews rushing out to sea right now.

Two questions; 1,) did anyone see a ferris wheel roll off a pier into the ocean? And 2.) was there a tank "putting out these fucking lights" in the middle of an NCO dance initiated riot?
posted by quin at 10:09 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

NCO USO
posted by quin at 10:10 AM on November 9, 2010

Military and aviation officials say they don't know who may have launched a mysterious object spotted in the sky late Monday off the Southern California coast, but said that whatever the projectile was, it did not pose a threat to national security.

Famous last words?

We don't know what it is, or who launched it, but it's not a threat.

I feel much safer now.
posted by chavenet at 10:11 AM on November 9, 2010 [10 favorites]

00000
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:12 AM on November 9, 2010 [9 favorites]

Based on the level of sophistication in that "reportage", and the WTFness of this story, I believe someone may have just set us up the bomb.
posted by Rock Steady at 10:14 AM on November 9, 2010 [20 favorites]

So far all we have is some third hand reports that there might have been something that looked like a missile launch.

um, you did watch the video, didn't you?
posted by pyramid termite at 10:15 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

well, not prove IMNYMA
posted by clavdivs at 10:15 AM on November 9, 2010

Ideas on who did it or how we can figure out who did it?

Look to see who Googled "how stop accidental missile launch" last night?
posted by Comrade_robot at 10:15 AM on November 9, 2010 [17 favorites]

This is the same news community that reports meteor fragments as UFOs. Is it possible they just reeled the film backwards?
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 10:17 AM on November 9, 2010

Better question: Where did it LAND?

That's not my department.
posted by steambadger at 10:18 AM on November 9, 2010 [10 favorites]

I'm thinking it might be the Fail Bomb.

If that is the case, the missile path probably terminated at the location of one of my sexual encounters.

That would also mean it either went off prematurely or not at all.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 10:18 AM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

Can't wait to see how the right wing contorts this into a "Obama can't even stop missiles from going off in LA let ALONE in Eye-ran!" talking point.
posted by Rykey at 10:19 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

Or more likely, illegal immigrants have developed a space program.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 10:19 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

A strange game . . . the only winning move is not to play.
posted by chaff at 10:19 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

an interesting story from 2007

it could well be that the chinese are sending us a little message
posted by pyramid termite at 10:20 AM on November 9, 2010

ET's going home.
posted by dazed_one at 10:20 AM on November 9, 2010

Please tell me it's not possible to "punch the wrong button" and launch a missile

One of my friends was a mobile missle tech- he'd drive the truck with the missles on the back, set it up, and launch. While it was warming up, his next role would be to hop on the bicycle provided to him and get the hell out of dodge.

I was not pleased when he told me someone had almost fucked up and really launched instead of practice launched during military exercises in Korea.

Ahem.

This is what you get when you keep dropping the standards for who you accept into the military.
posted by yeloson at 10:20 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

The only wrinkle is the time: "09 NOV 20:00 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 08 NOV 20:52 2010". That's for noon to 5pm today and was published at 1pm yesterday (California time). Maybe someone just screwed up the calendar?

Daylight savings time. The simplest explanation is that the launch was pre-programmed and someone screwed up resetting the clocks, and the cron job took off.
posted by Old'n'Busted at 10:21 AM on November 9, 2010

Rykey: you mean like this?

MYSTERY MISSILE FIRED OFF CA COAST; PENTAGON 'NO CLUE'

that's on the drudgereport right now, linking to the CBS story.
posted by chavenet at 10:21 AM on November 9, 2010

Also: Man, I'm so glad we gave up habeas corpus and our rights to privacy. I feel so much safer from dangerous WMDs than ever before.

I think I've fulfilled my sarcasm quota for the day here.
posted by yeloson at 10:22 AM on November 9, 2010

Stagger Lee: "So far all we have is some third hand reports that there might have been something that looked like a missile launch"

Third hand reports? There is video on the CBS news site.
posted by sharkfu at 10:22 AM on November 9, 2010

So. The military sees a missile go up. They don't know who fired it or why. Then, they don't track it to see where it lands.

Call me crazy, and I know you do, even if under your breath where I can't hear you, but if I wanted to know what it was, I'd go to where it came down, and -- I dunno -- just imagine with me here -- look at it.
posted by Devils Rancher at 10:23 AM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

Ignorance is bliss.
posted by zarq at 10:23 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

While we're dissecting the text here, what I wanna know is, what kind of bizarre , twisted sensibility could describe a mysterious missile launch as "gorgeous"? I mean "bizarre", "troubling", or "scary" seem appropriate; but of all the descriptors that come to mind, how in the name of Hang-Gliding Jesus does one settle on "gorgeous"?
posted by PareidoliaticBoy at 10:25 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

Last paragraph of the article: Another possibility, it would be sophisticated launch just to create a spectacular site in the sky.

Does anybody on earth employ a fucking copy editor, anymore?
posted by ook at 10:25 AM on November 9, 2010 [7 favorites]

but of all the descriptors that come to mind, how in the name of Hang-Gliding Jesus does one settle on "gorgeous"?

Obviously, you were not amongst the few lucky enough to behold its radiant glory and splendor in person.
posted by Devils Rancher at 10:28 AM on November 9, 2010

I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. I must preview before posting. ... I must preview before posting.
posted by ook at 10:29 AM on November 9, 2010

You saw a weather balloon.

...a weather balloon seen at an angle that aligned with the planet Venus.

That is all.

A rocket-powered nuclear-warhead weather balloon!

ET phoned home, and no-one came, so he spent the last 20 years building a ridiculously crude stone-age device that get's him off planet by means of a burning rocket fuel. That's just crazy, like trying to do your own surgery using riverbed rocks as instruments.
posted by -harlequin- at 10:29 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Please tell me it's not possible to "punch the wrong button" and launch a missile. Please, some military person. I can understand, "punch the wrong button" and activate, say, the fire suppression system. Or the "supper is ready" alert system.

Well, if NBC can't differentiate between "site" and "sight" why would you expect military engineers to distinguish "lunch" from "launch"?
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 10:30 AM on November 9, 2010 [4 favorites]

an interesting story from 2007

it could well be that the chinese are sending us a little message
posted by pyramid termite at 1:20 PM on November 9 [+] [!]

There is a giant difference between a notoriously silent diesel electric submarine popping up in a US Navy exercise in the Pacific, and one of China's noisier few ballistic missile submarines making it to the California coast.
posted by Comrade_robot at 10:30 AM on November 9, 2010

Hahahaha! No need to worry, us Canadians didn't have anything to do with this!

_{Initiate protocol Alpha-Maple-Hockey-Beaver}
posted by WinnipegDragon at 10:31 AM on November 9, 2010 [19 favorites]

This is the same news community that reports meteor fragments as UFOs. Is it possible they just reeled the film backwards?

Did you see the video? It's unambiguous. It looks like a rocket launch; whatever it was, it was pretty damn big.
posted by mr_roboto at 10:32 AM on November 9, 2010

(This joke © Spitting Image Reagan in the Genesis "Land Of Confusion" video)
posted by goodnewsfortheinsane at 10:32 AM on November 9, 2010

a spectacular site in the sky

No, they're really talking about a site.

It all makes sense. That's why they aren't telling us where it came down. It didn't. It's a new base. A sky base.

A spectacular sky base, situated in the sky.
posted by weston at 10:36 AM on November 9, 2010

If the US military were not responsible for launching this missile, then they will clearly be investigating it right now. They will also not be releasing details on what they are discovering to the media, at least until they can come up with a narrative that won't scare the shit out of everyone on the west coast.

If it was the Chinese or similar, you are unlikely to be hearing that from official US sources, unless they really want to boost military spending in a time of economic difficulties...
posted by knapah at 10:36 AM on November 9, 2010

It's times like these when I want to blow five bucks to register Elon Musk as a user name, so I can post somethign like, "Buy more Tesla Roadsters or the next one won't be headed out to sea!"
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 10:39 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

posted by Chinese Jet Pilot at 10:01 AM on November 9 [+] [!]

Yay! My first "eponysterical!"
posted by mreleganza at 10:39 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

The reason they're not telling us where it landed is that by some paradoxical effect it actually traveled back in time and landed in Germany just after the close of World War II.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 10:40 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

one of China's noisier few ballistic missile submarines making it to the California coast.

neither link actually specifies that the new type 094 is noisy

on the other hand, i'm not sure why they would cross the pacific to do this when they can be in range near their own coast
posted by pyramid termite at 10:40 AM on November 9, 2010

Does anybody on earth employ a fucking copy editor, anymore?

Fixed: Does anybody on Earth employ a fucking copy editor anymore?
posted by me3dia at 10:42 AM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

A STRANGE GAME.    

THE ONLY WINNING MOVE IS NOT TO PLAY.    

HOW ABOUT A NICE GAME OF CHESS?

posted by schmod at 10:42 AM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

Reddit guy thinks it was a satellite launch from San Nicolas.
posted by Lord_Pall at 10:42 AM on November 9, 2010 [4 favorites]

It's a Rocket-raising: a festival new to this country. Soon it will come to the folk-attention how close Wernher von Braun's birthday is to the Spring Equinox, and the same German impulse that once rolled flower-boats through the towns and staged mock battles between young Spring and deathwhite old Winter will be erecting strange floral towers out in the clearings and meadows, and the young scientist-surrogate will be going round and round with Gravity or some such buffoon, and the children will be tickled, and laugh....
posted by shakespeherian at 10:47 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

Does anybody on earth employ a fucking copy editor, anymore?

No. Nobody on Earth employs a fucking copy editor anymore.

But look on the bright side: once the missiles get here, it won't really matter much...
posted by steambadger at 10:47 AM on November 9, 2010

Lord_Pall: "Reddit guy thinks it was a satellite launch from San Nicolas"

From Lord_Pall's reddit link, by user kleinbl00:

"I disagree with the ICBM-submarine theory because sub-launched missiles are tiny. That rocket looked to be at least a Delta II or possibly a Minotaur IV, both of which are too big for submarines."

That's pretty interesting. Thanks for the link, Lord_Pall.
posted by sharkfu at 10:50 AM on November 9, 2010

US Lost Command of One-Ninth of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Arsenal Last Saturday

Not to worry! Nick Denton "found" it.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:50 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

What I want to know is, where did it come down? Did it splash, or crash? Or did it go into orbit?
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 10:53 AM on November 9, 2010

I disagree with the ICBM-submarine theory because sub-launched missiles are tiny. That rocket looked to be at least a Delta II or possibly a Minotaur IV, both of which are too big for submarines.

So kleinbl00 seems to be thinking the same thing as me: it was a really fucking BIG submarine!
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 10:54 AM on November 9, 2010

neither link actually specifies that the new type 094 is noisy

on the other hand, i'm not sure why they would cross the pacific to do this when they can be in range near their own coast
posted by pyramid termite at 1:40 PM on November 9 [+] [!]

Sorry if I was unclear -- my understanding is that generally speaking, nuclear submarines are noisier than diesel electrics

Diesel-electric submarines have a stealth advantage over their nuclear counterparts. Nuclear submarines generate noise from coolant pumps and turbo-machinery needed to operate the reactor, even at low power levels. Some nuclear submarines such as the American Ohio class can operate with their reactor coolant pumps secured, making them quieter than electric subs. A conventional submarine operating on batteries is almost completely silent, the only noise coming from the shaft bearings, propeller, and flow noise around the hull, all of which stops when the sub hovers in mid water to listen, leaving only the noise from crew activity. Commercial submarines usually rely only on batteries, since they never operate independently of a mother ship.

Also, launching a missile from a ballistic missile submarine is less 'sending a message' and more 'suicidally insane'.
posted by Comrade_robot at 10:54 AM on November 9, 2010

Sounds like someone has been rewatching The Hunt for Red October:

Comrades, our own fleet doesn't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us, but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our fleet behind. We will pass through the American patrols, pass their sonar nets, and lay off their largest city and listen to their rock 'n' roll while we conduct missile drills. And when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter while we sail to Havana, where the sun is warm and so is the comradeship.


They probably engaged the caterpillar drive.
posted by bessel functions seem unnecessarily complicated at 10:55 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

A spectacular sky base, situated in the sky.
posted by weston at 1:36 PM on November 9 [+] [!]

Are you spying on my Minecraft construction?!
posted by Comrade_robot at 10:56 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Balloon Boy 2.0?
posted by spilon at 10:58 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Please tell me it's not possible to "punch the wrong button" and launch a missile.

It's a known issue. It's presumably not as simple as hitting the wrong button, but there is a fundamental conflict being having something on a hair trigger (be it a handgun or a nuclear arsenal) vs having safeguards so it doesn't go off accidentally.
If you are required to maintain a missile launch system where the top priority is that it can be launched within minutes of receiving fire orders, that severely curtails the safeguards you can put in place.

The risk is additive - the more handguns (or nukes) you're carrying that are fully loaded, the safety off, and on a hair trigger, the higher your chances of an accident. (This is one of the many reasons for nuclear disarmament, and why taking more missiles off perpetual hair-trigger is usually a prominent feature of the disarmament talks and treaties.)

Historically, there have been many close calls, including people deciding on a hunch that something was amiss and going against procedure - where following procedure would be to launch a nuclear strike.

A lot of people are surprised that an accidental nuclear detonation has not yet occurred. It kind of reminds me of how people openly wondered before 9/11 why the US had never been seriously attacked despite making so many enemies. :-/
posted by -harlequin- at 10:58 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

If you are required to maintain a missile launch system where the top priority is that it can be launched within minutes of receiving fire orders, that severely curtails the safeguards you can put in place.

If you are required to maintain a missile launch system where the top priority is that it can will be launched within minutes of receiving fire orders or when there is evidence of an incoming attack and HQ can't be reached, that severely curtails the safeguards you can put in place.
posted by -harlequin- at 11:02 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Does anyone know what the Mythbusters were up to yesterday?
posted by drezdn at 11:02 AM on November 9, 2010 [6 favorites]

WaPo has picked it up.
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 11:03 AM on November 9, 2010

Also, launching a missile from a ballistic missile submarine is less 'sending a message' and more 'suicidally insane'.

i'm just trying to eliminate the possibilities here - assuming it wasn't an american missile, whose could it be? - our allies and friends wouldn't do this - the iranians and north koreans might, but from what i've looked up, they just don't have the capacity - the russians know better and don't have anything to prove by such a stunt - we know what they can do

that pretty much leaves us with the chinese - or that missile base mentioned in the reddit post above - but why wouldn't the u s just say, "yeah, we launched something" - it's not a secret when you do it 35 miles from l a

maybe it was a private party, but why be so quiet about it?

this is a puzzling story
posted by pyramid termite at 11:07 AM on November 9, 2010

THE MISSILE IS COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE!
posted by steambadger at 11:10 AM on November 9, 2010 [7 favorites]

Is it too far fetched to conclude the Chinese are sending us a message?

Check your email.
posted by Edison Carter at 11:11 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

Doggone Mexican food. Sorry about that.
posted by kinnakeet at 11:12 AM on November 9, 2010

C'mon, guys, let's wait to make sure Falcon Heene was on it before we get excited.
posted by klangklangston at 11:17 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Oh, I "launched a missile" last night, if you know what I mean.

Lieutenant Slothrop? I thought we went over the safe "missile launching" protocols in your debriefing?
posted by juv3nal at 11:17 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

This is LA. Obviously, it was CGI.
posted by jefbla at 11:21 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Amateurs have made some pretty big rockets.
posted by exogenous at 11:26 AM on November 9, 2010

Sorry to burst all your conspiracy balloons but it was probably just a plane.
posted by scalefree at 11:27 AM on November 9, 2010 [8 favorites]

It was either one of ours or one not of ours. Don't we have the right for the govt to let us know the source, or possible source...if they can not account for it, what does that tell us about
our patriot Act and albility to prevent attacks upon us?
posted by Postroad at 11:27 AM on November 9, 2010

Wyatt: A missile! A MISSILE! A MISSILE IN MY HOUSE, GARY!
Max: [Banging on it] Yup, this puppy's for real all right.
posted by smoothvirus at 11:28 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

MetaFilter: We don't EVER let the "Preview" function get in the way of our urgent rush to drop a one-liner! We tell the same joke over and over for maximum impact!
posted by pineapple at 11:32 AM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

@scalefree - I didn't know that planes had big glowing rocket engines on them - have you seen the video?
posted by zeoslap at 11:33 AM on November 9, 2010

Yes I did. That's the reflection of the sun off the plane.
posted by scalefree at 11:36 AM on November 9, 2010

See! I told you all it was a weather balloon! :-p
posted by -harlequin- at 11:38 AM on November 9, 2010

Sorry to burst all your conspiracy balloons but it was probably just a plane.

Relatedly, OMG lookout!!!1!
posted by The 10th Regiment of Foot at 11:42 AM on November 9, 2010

"When A Stranger Calls" and "Weird Science" are two different movies, smartass.
posted by smoothvirus at 11:42 AM on November 9, 2010

@scalefree - um no, no it's not.
posted by zeoslap at 11:43 AM on November 9, 2010

@scalefree - um no, no it's not.

You're entitled to your opinion. Time will tell which of us is right & which of us is you.
posted by scalefree at 11:46 AM on November 9, 2010

Local news is hot on the story! San Diego's News 8 Investigative Team landed an exclusive interview with Nixon's Deputy Secretary of Defense, Robert Ellsworth, who speculates "that with President Obama in Asia, perhaps this could have been a show of our military muscle. 'It could be a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from a submarine … to demonstrate, mainly to Asia, that we can do that."

Ellsworth then barked at his wife to get Kissinger on the line...and fetch him his goddamn glass of warm milk already.
posted by prinado at 11:46 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

> But then of course it could be a missile being launched to intercept an giant asteroid that's about to kill us all.

That would surely produce an spectacular site!
posted by mmrtnt at 11:46 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

I saw this driving home on PCH last night. It looked really cool, and it just looked look like a fire coming off Catalina.
posted by anazgnos at 11:49 AM on November 9, 2010

"When A Stranger Calls" and "Weird Science" are two different movies, smartass.

Surely you aren't addressing me.
posted by pineapple at 11:52 AM on November 9, 2010

Weird, a Science Calls.
posted by SmileyChewtrain at 11:55 AM on November 9, 2010

"that with President Obama in Asia, perhaps this could have been a show of our military muscle. 'It could be a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from a submarine … to demonstrate, mainly to Asia, that we can do that."

Wow, apparently we're taking cues from Kim Jong Il's playbook now.
posted by Think_Long at 11:55 AM on November 9, 2010

> S/he who smelt it, dealt it. In other words, the smeller is the feller.

In modern usage, this has been shortened to "Smelteth, dealteth"

Please take note.
posted by mmrtnt at 11:55 AM on November 9, 2010

Take that, Atlantis.
posted by stevil at 11:56 AM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

Perhaps they were celebrating the LA Galaxy win?
posted by spinifex23 at 11:59 AM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Um, that video looks suspiciously like a contrail. Odd, that. There are hardly any aircraft in the air in Southern California.
posted by wierdo at 12:01 PM on November 9, 2010

> I'd go to where it came down, and -- I dunno -- just imagine with me here -- look at it.

Fat lot of good it will do ya. The N kOreans torpedoed a S kOrean ship and we got the torpedo fragments and showed them to the NoKos and they were all like, "Not us, dude. Prove it. I know you are, but what is time?

Time to Kim Jong Il - HA HA HA HA HA


Suckers..."


Honest.
posted by mmrtnt at 12:03 PM on November 9, 2010

Ellsworth then barked at his wife to get Kissinger on the line...and fetch him his goddamn glass of warm milk already.

"You kids get your goddamn missiles off my lawn!"
posted by steambadger at 12:04 PM on November 9, 2010

Dear Diary,

It was cold today. But the sun came out later, so I went out and strolled about looking at the shops. On the way home, I posted a letter.

Somebody launched a ballistic missile today, diary. But it wasn't anybody I knew.
posted by Herodios at 12:09 PM on November 9, 2010 [4 favorites]

(not a accident.)

'Some kind of fat finger error on the part of someone in a missile station somewhere.

A missile shot from a submarine, possibly a nuke. (One ex-defense chief thought it might even be a show of technical force to coincide with Obama's trip overseas)

A test'
posted by clavdivs at 12:12 PM on November 9, 2010

Shit! Where's Major Kong?
posted by mmrtnt at 12:14 PM on November 9, 2010

Can we knock off the jokes please?

Our planet is about to explode and our thoughts should be with baby Kal-El as he speeds off to his new home.
posted by panboi at 12:17 PM on November 9, 2010 [19 favorites]

Liberals are to blame.
posted by telstar at 12:17 PM on November 9, 2010 [2 favorites]

Wait, a real missile? I just watched the IHOP news there and it looks like an actual damn missile. And if I'd skipped this site today, I wouldn't have heard about it on what-I-now-watch-instead-of-CNN? JEsus.
posted by theredpen at 12:17 PM on November 9, 2010

I launcheded a missile, but I losted it. :-(
posted by Devils Rancher at 12:22 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Worth noting is that "north of Santa Catalina, 35 miles out to sea" is home to a high-altitude airway used by planes inbound to the United States (or was, when that map was published), and planes on it would turn left from ELKEY toward the LAX VOR at about where that contrail does.
posted by jackflaps at 12:44 PM on November 9, 2010

(Provided it's travelling toward California, which is hard to tell from the one video we have, but Occam's Razor and that.)
posted by jackflaps at 12:47 PM on November 9, 2010

It wasn't us. It was those Danes over at SomethingAwful. They've got a sub and they're building missiles.
posted by warbaby at 12:51 PM on November 9, 2010

Kim Kardashian ate beans.
posted by stormpooper at 1:06 PM on November 9, 2010

Another informative analysis from kleinbl00 on reddit:

Vandenberg routinely launches Minuteman IIIs at Kwajalein to test them - maybe 4-6 per year. That's most assuredly their track.

Their rough guesstimate as to launch site is a little north of San Nicolas, which is, not to put too fine a point on it, a mutherfucking missile launch site.

San Nicholas is, not to put too fine a point on it, a detachment of 200 or more airmen managed by the 30th space wing.

If you read between the lines, CBS asked the Navy if they launched anything and the Navy said "no" (because San Nicholas and the 30th space wing are Air Force territory). Then they asked Vandenberg if they launched anything and Vandenberg said "we haven't launched anything from Vandenberg since Friday" (because they launched something from San Nicholas).

posted by joshwa at 1:08 PM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

Kim Kardashian ate beans.
posted by stormpooper at 3:06 PM on November 9 "

Eponysterically nasty!
posted by jquinby at 1:09 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

The only wrinkle is the time: "09 NOV 20:00 2010 UNTIL 10 NOV 01:00 2010. CREATED: 08 NOV 20:52 2010". That's for noon to 5pm today and was published at 1pm yesterday (California time). Maybe someone just screwed up the calendar?

Daylight savings time. The simplest explanation is that the launch was pre-programmed and someone screwed up resetting the clocks, and the cron job took off.


Or that our ICBM launch system is controlled by iPhones.

Nuclear ICBM launch? There's an app for that.
posted by formless at 1:14 PM on November 9, 2010

Looking at the link scalefree provided, it seems plausible that it was an airplane. If so, that's reassuring -- until you consider the fact that a crack team of DoD analysts apparently hasn't thought of that, twenty-four hours later...
posted by steambadger at 1:15 PM on November 9, 2010

Here's another analysis suggesting it was just a contrail from a plane
posted by spaceviking at 1:28 PM on November 9, 2010

Sorry Scalefree's was better and perhaps the original source
posted by spaceviking at 1:34 PM on November 9, 2010

If so, that's reassuring -- until you consider the fact that a crack team of DoD analysts apparently hasn't thought of that, twenty-four hours later...

Or they really don't care and are sitting back laughing at the next big "story" our joke of a media can obsess over for the next 24 hours.
posted by Big_B at 1:41 PM on November 9, 2010

joshwa: Another informative analysis from kleinbl00 on reddit:
Vandenberg routinely launches Minuteman IIIs at Kwajalein to test them.

Video of what a test like this looks like. if you can get past the odd style, it's like an infomercial for the apocalypse…
posted by nfg at 1:42 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Well it got launched over town about an hour ago
Took a look around see which way the wind blow
Maybe outta Vandenberg, solid fuel booster glow
The Navy can deny it's Mugu risin' tonight
Did you see that big contrail o'er the city tonight?

L.A. missile
L.A. missile
L.A. missile, Tuesday afternoon
Launched from you suburbs
Into the blue, into the blue
Into the blue, blue, blue, into the blue, yeah!

Mr. NORAD Rising
Gotta keep on rising
Rising, rising. . .
posted by Herodios at 1:43 PM on November 9, 2010 [3 favorites]

EXT. ZEPHYR LAUNCH SITE, DUSK

We FADE IN on a cleared patch of forest in a mountainous area.  In the fading light of
dusk there is a hive of activity; men in camouflage uniforms exchange hand signals
while trucks scatter in seemingly random directions.  As we take in the scene, we
suddenly see the epicenter of this commotion – a large missile perched on a 
makeshift launching platform.  Uniformed men circle the platform making last-second
adjustments.  The North Korean flag is painted on the side of the missle, under the
letters "DPRK."  However, it's easy to see that none of the men are Korean.

A voice calls out:

VOICE (O.C.)
All clear!  Prepare to launch in T minus 1 minute!

The men snap into action, fleeing the launch area as quickly as possible.  However, one
man stays in place, chomping on a cigar.  He’s older than any of the others, but
also in better shape.  He stares at the missile intently, as if trying to download last-
second instructions into its on-board computer with his eyes.

VOICE (O.C.)
30 seconds to launch!  Time to boogie, Colonel!

The older man doesn’t break eye contact with the missile.  He calmly removes the
cigar from his mouth and taps it once so the inch-long ash falls to the ground.  

VOICE (O.C.)
10 seconds to launch!  Colonel, you’re in the
danger radius,  you gotta get behind some shelter now!

Finally, reluctantly, the older man turns around.  He begins to walk slowly towards
the camera, inserting the stogie back in his mouth.  He is Colonel Max “Scorpio” Shaw
of the U.S. Marine Corps special operations unit, and he is about to launch a nuclear
missile that will detonate above Los Angeles.  

SHAW
This better fuckin’ work.

The instant SHAW passes the camera, the missile’s engines ignite, sending it, along
with a cloud of flames and smoke, skyward.  As the fire glow fades, we CUT TO:

TITLE CARD:  
LIQUIDATE L.A.
A MICHAEL BAY FILM

posted by pardonyou? at 1:43 PM on November 9, 2010 [6 favorites]

This and this are the only two inbound flights from the Pacific around sunset I could find. I doubt it would have originated from anywhere other than Hawai'i because further south and west would mean they'd be stopping over at LAX anyway.
posted by jackflaps at 1:45 PM on November 9, 2010

Daylight savings time. The simplest explanation is that the launch was pre-programmed and someone screwed up resetting the clocks, and the cron job took off.

Sunday morning I ended up at a national restaurant chain location that was doing everything with paper and a pocket calculator, presumably because they hadn't paid to update their POS software to deal with the change in start date for DST....3 years ago. That a government installation might have a longer lead time for updating their systems would not surprise me.
posted by nomisxid at 1:48 PM on November 9, 2010

Is it too far fetched to conclude the Chinese are sending us a message?

You think they're mad about quantitative easing or something? Why would they have any interest in doing this?

Sorry to burst all your conspiracy balloons but it was probably just a plane.

Uh, that's pretty ridiculous. People saw this thing go up, and there's even some video of the thing flying. No one is denying that it was a rocket, do you actually think the U.S. military would get confused about this?
posted by delmoi at 2:13 PM on November 9, 2010

Or they really don't care and are sitting back laughing at the next big "story" our joke of a media can obsess over for the next 24 hours.

Possible; although the government would normally be scrambling for an explanation, in order to avert panic. But then, nobody's panicking, are they? Maybe the news-as-entertainment meme has finally become established fact.
posted by steambadger at 2:13 PM on November 9, 2010

If you read between the lines, CBS asked the Navy if they launched anything and the Navy said "no" (because San Nicholas and the 30th space wing are Air Force territory). Then they asked Vandenberg if they launched anything and Vandenberg said "we haven't launched anything from Vandenberg since Friday" (because they launched something from San Nicholas).

From the Washington Times:

"We are aware of the unexplained contrail reported off the coast of Southern California [Monday] evening and are working to determine the exact nature of the event," said Pentagon spokesman Marine Corps Col. Dave Lapan.

"Many agencies within [the Department of Defense] have been queried, and initial indications are that there was no DoD involvement, but we're still looking for information," he said.

No one is denying that it was a rocket, do you actually think the U.S. military would get confused about this?

ibid:

A U.S. defense official said initial speculation among military and intelligence agencies is that the plume of smoke captured in a video was made by a jet contrail or another type of aircraft flying straight up and trailing smoke created by an onboard machine like those used by aircraft in air shows. That preliminary assessment is based on the relatively slow speed of the object and movement within the contrail path.

I especially like that last sentence, coming from people presumably qualified to know how fast a missile is supposed to travel & noticing that this wasn't going that fast.
posted by scalefree at 2:27 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Wired weighs in.
posted by scalefree at 2:33 PM on November 9, 2010

this has been shortened to "Smelteth, dealteth"

Mutually Assured Dutch Oven
posted by CynicalKnight at 2:34 PM on November 9, 2010 [4 favorites]

Eight Explanations for the Mystery California Missile Launch.
posted by scalefree at 2:35 PM on November 9, 2010

In other news, city with cocaine in the water supply sees weird shit in the sky.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 2:44 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

regardless of what the contrail ends up having been... this was really one of the most entertaining mefi threads i've read in a long time. the weird science references were gold, but i was honestly a little disappointed to see so few iron man references. overall a great read today.

the wired article linked by scalefree seems quite lucid, and it makes me think i should put the old tin-foil hat away till next time.
posted by rude.boy at 3:03 PM on November 9, 2010

i was honestly a little disappointed to see so few iron man references.

Everyone wants to forget Iron Man 2.
posted by Artw at 3:06 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Looks like someone decided to start a game of Global Thermonuclear Warfare.
posted by armage at 3:07 PM on November 9, 2010

Blofeld!
posted by mazola at 3:08 PM on November 9, 2010

And here's some dogs that didn't bark in the night. From the LA Times:

The Federal Aviation Administration did not approve any commercial space launches around the area Monday, said spokesman Ian Gregor. In addition, the agency did not receive reports of any unusual sightings from pilots who were flying in the area.

After reports of the event, the agency ran radar replays of a large area west of Los Angeles and did not spot any fast-moving, unidentified targets in that area.

posted by scalefree at 3:08 PM on November 9, 2010

Fucking linear perspective, how does it work?
posted by Sys Rq at 3:13 PM on November 9, 2010 [10 favorites]

delmoi:

"Is it too far fetched to conclude the Chinese are sending us a message?

You think they're mad about quantitative easing or something? Why would they have any interest in doing this? "

The crash landing of our EP-3E spy plane in April 2001 in the South China Sea was caused by a Chinese military jet flying a few dozen yards in front of our slow moving plane and gunning the afterburners to antagonize us with the shock wave, so the Chinese are no stranger to brinksmanship, doing shit to prove you can, like two kids playing chicken on bikes until someone gets hurt.

There seems to be evidence that it was a test missile from San Nicholas, but at the time I wrote my original comment I was thinking maybe the Chinese wanted to show off their shiny, new propeller technology.
posted by sharkfu at 3:21 PM on November 9, 2010

If it was a Chinese missile, we've got a ginormously huge problem on our hands. Apparently they've not only mastered stealth, they've taken it to a whole new level & have introduced the world to the Stealth Missile, one that doesn't even show up on our RADAR. Who cares about ballistic missile shields if we can't even track the missiles so we know where to shoot?

Or it could just be an airplane. Seriously people, how much evidence do you need?
posted by scalefree at 3:31 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

The Pentagon official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing, said that FAA records showed commercial airliners were flying in the area at the time, and that most government experts were coming to the conclusion that the condensation trail was caused by an aircraft. "The best we can tell, it was probably caused by an aircraft," the official said.

John Pike, director of globalsecurity.org, a website for military policy research, agrees. He said the idea that the government would carry out a secret launch illuminated at sunset, within view of 8 million Angelenos, is hard to believe.

"If it were secret, we'd do it at night in Alaska where only the caribou could see it," Pike said. "It's an airplane contrail, pure and simple."

You know who else in Alaska could see it?

I got nothing.
posted by blucevalo at 3:37 PM on November 9, 2010

If that's a contrail, it's one of the densest and most spectacular contrails I have ever seen.
posted by Xoebe at 3:41 PM on November 9, 2010

Info.
posted by Splunge at 3:42 PM on November 9, 2010

Xoebe wrote: "If that's a contrail, it's one of the densest and most spectacular contrails I have ever seen."

You should come live in flyover country. I have planes flying overhead at high altitude all day long (there are a lot of flights between Dallas and Chicago, so I see things like this (without the awesome sun angle) all the freaking time. Every once in a while, there will be a MEM-LAX flight that catches the sun right and looks almost as neat as this one.

The pictures are very clearly contrails. The area immediately behind the plane looks unusually bright because the darker part of the contrail is in shadow from the clouds. It doesn't help that the video and images are, of course, two dimensional, which fool your brain into thinking weirdly about it. Sort of like how you can look at a parquet floor and see weird three dimensional shapes in it that aren't really there.

Anyway, if it was actually a rocket launch, the Air Force would know about it. We have satellites with IR sensors monitoring the entire globe for just such events. Now, I suppose it's possible the government might be keeping..whatever..a secret, but it seems pretty far fetched to me.
posted by wierdo at 4:12 PM on November 9, 2010

Every article about it being jet contrail seems to point back to that one anonymous "contrail science" post, which mostly shows images of other contrails, rather than further details of the one in question. (The author seems way more focused on the battle against chemtrails and sylphs to bother with the details from Monday.)

If this was just a foreshortened oncoming jet, then it should have flown right over the people filming it -- which should be really easy to see by looking at a minute or two of unedited footage. But all the clips I've found are short and chopped.

Sause plz.
posted by zota at 4:14 PM on November 9, 2010

Last year, I saw this while driving south to Nogales, AZ. Since I was pretty certain that Mexico hadn't launched a surprise strike against the US, I assumed it was a plane.
posted by pjern at 4:19 PM on November 9, 2010

zota, some of us don't need articles to know what common phenomena look like. ;)
posted by wierdo at 4:40 PM on November 9, 2010

I'm pretty sure it was an advertising stunt for Rocket Fuel Malt Liquor.

Get on the rocket and see the stars!
posted by mwhybark at 4:41 PM on November 9, 2010

also gazizah my dilsnoofus
posted by mwhybark at 4:43 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

Swamp gas, clearly.
posted by klangklangston at 4:46 PM on November 9, 2010 [1 favorite]

The helicopter cameraman who shot the footage says "it was spinning up into the sky kind of like a spiral," and was easy to distinguish from condensation trails from jets.

Counter-argument: foxnews and this guy.

Even if it was a jet, I'm leaning missile, just on principle.
posted by zota at 4:47 PM on November 9, 2010

In the posted video, it is clearly not spiraling at all. Besides, rockets don't spiral unless they're broken.

I've been seriously skeptical of people's observational capabilities and convinced of the existence of strange atmospheric optical phenomena ever since I went out into my apartment complex one evening and saw Venus moving around like a UFO.
posted by wierdo at 4:53 PM on November 9, 2010

Besides, rockets don't spiral unless they're broken.

Like this one.
posted by scalefree at 5:05 PM on November 9, 2010

Weirdo, it my very well have been a jet contrail (although jets don't spiral either). Id love to see some better footage of it, which would probably clear up some of the speculation.

But before you go equating missle launches with UFOs and mistaken Venuses, you should come out to missile flyover country. Missle launches are very common phenomena around LA. Several times in my life, I've been surprised by flaming-gold line across the sunset and it actually has been a missle lauched over the ocean. As in, a confirmed missle. Because we do got us some missile bases in these here parts.

And every time I've looked up at any of the hundreds of daily jet contrails and wondered if a particularly gaudy one might be a missle, it really does not take long to confirm it isn't. I'm pretty sure that's true of a lot of people in Southern California, especially, pilots, helicopter cameramen, and Air Force / Naval officials.

Jet, missile, or other, this has gotten interesting from a purely epistemological angle.
posted by zota at 5:28 PM on November 9, 2010

Is it too far fetched to conclude the Chinese are sending us a message?

What message would that be? "Please destroy my subs?"
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 5:51 PM on November 9, 2010 [5 favorites]

McKittrick: See that sign up here. "Defcon." That indicates our current DEFense CONdition. It should read "Defcon 5," which means peace. It's still on 4 because of that little stunt you pulled. Actually, if we hadn't caught it in time, it might have gone to Defcon 1. You know what that means, David?
David: No. What does that mean?
McKittrick: World War Three.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:16 PM on November 9, 2010

Civil_Disobedient: "Is it too far fetched to conclude the Chinese are sending us a message?

What message would that be? "Please destroy my subs?"

I know it's novel for Americans to have foreign military units off our border, but we regularly do naval exercises in the South China Sea, which greatly annoys China. Our spy plane was 70 miles off the coast of China before the Hainan Island incident.

It's most likely an Air Force missile from San Nicholas or an oddly viewed jet contrail, but for the purposes of discussion: how exactly would we destroy an enemy sub off the coast off Los Angeles? As far as I know, our attack subs are based out of Naval Base Kitsap in Washington State, Vandenberg only has aircraft for civilian air patrol, and the closest submarine hunting/killing capability (again, as far as I know) would be in San Diego/Coronado. What's our plan for that, ask them to hold still for an hour or two while we get some aircraft up here to destroy them?

Is our only protection the hubris that the Chinese could never match our submarine technology? This, the country that's putting in 5,000 additional kilometers of high speed raid by 2012 (on top of their current 7,000) while LA's "subway to the sea" won't start construction until 2013 and finish by 2036-- twenty five years to build 9.5 miles of track.
posted by sharkfu at 12:23 AM on November 10, 2010 [1 favorite]

Our principle protection against the Chinese launching missiles from within our territorial waters is the fact that holy hell would break loose world wide, including universal censure by every major nation. Countries that want international respect (as China does) do not provoke that kind of response on purpose. It's got more or less nothing to do with technology.

Yes, we have done missile tests in the South China Sea, and the Chinese have complained bitterly about them (and had the chance to do so in advance because we told them they were going to happen). We usually do this under cover of invitation from or agreement with regional allies. There are niceties involved. Major powers do not violate them over trivial shit like currency valuation.
posted by lodurr at 6:25 AM on November 10, 2010

I know it's novel for Americans to have foreign military units off our border

Only very ignorant Americans or those with short memories. So about 2/3 of the current population, but still. Only a crazy person would think that the waters off Kings Bay and Bangor didn't have an extensive population of Soviet attack subs any time an Ohio boat was near deployment.

how exactly would we destroy an enemy sub off the coast off Los Angeles?

Same as always: by having attack subs shadow it from port.

More to the point, having your very new class of SSBN conduct what would appear to be its first successful missile launch test unannounced and 35 miles from the coast of your (twitchy, roid-raging) primary adversary just isn't terribly smart.

I mean, the PRC has been almost embarrassingly sane and conservative about its nuclear arsenal. They have a relatively small arsenal with almost no counterforce capability; almost a pure deterrent with little provocative power*. As far as we know, they probably don't even keep warheads attached to their missiles, or at least not to their few ICBMs. They are emphatically not playing the Mutually Assured Destruction game. Pulling a stunt as provocative as launching from LA would be deeply out of the careful, let's-not-end-the-world-accidentally character the PLA has shown about thermonuclear weapons.

*To the US. To Japan, Taiwan, or India, a useful cudgel.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 7:04 AM on November 10, 2010 [1 favorite]

Privates pressed close
to a warm glowing console.
Button pressed. Release.
posted by Kabanos at 7:13 AM on November 10, 2010

John Pike says its a contrail.

I listen to John Pike.
posted by Ironmouth at 8:21 AM on November 10, 2010

Ironmouth: "John Pike says its a contrail. "

In that same article:

However, Doug Richardson, editor of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets, said he was left in little doubt that it was a missile after examining the video.

‘It’s a solid propellant missile,’ he told the Times. ‘You can tell from the efflux [smoke].’

...and presumably, from seeing many missiles in his time.
posted by jquinby at 8:33 AM on November 10, 2010

I know it's novel for Americans to have foreign military units off our border, but we regularly do naval exercises in the South China Sea, which greatly annoys China.

Also, Canada's arctic waters are full of American (and Russian) subs. Our current Prime Minister ran on a platform promising to say Nuh-uh to that sort of thing.

Now, I'm not saying Stephen Harper personally fired a missile into US airspace from US waters. But just to make sure everything's accurate, I thought I'd just remind y'all that our nation's capital is Ottawa. Aim them there.
posted by Sys Rq at 9:16 AM on November 10, 2010 [1 favorite]

As far as I know, our attack subs are based out of Naval Base Kitsap in Washington State, Vandenberg only has aircraft for civilian air patrol, and the closest submarine hunting/killing capability (again, as far as I know) would be in San Diego/Coronado. What's our plan for that, ask them to hold still for an hour or two while we get some aircraft up here to destroy them?

The missile boats and all 3 Seawolfs are based from NBK, but most of the fast boats come from Pearl Harbor (squadrons 1, 3, 7) or San Diego (squadron 11). There's another sub squadron in Guam. P-3 patrol aircraft are based in Whidbey Island (with a "special" squadron of EP-3s in Kaneohe.)

They don't, though, sit around until the phone rings. There are always boats and aircraft out on deployment around the world, of course, but there are others doing things closer to home, up and down the mainland western coast and all over the Pacific. Between that and pretty good intel about foreign submarine operations, it would be extremely unlikely that a Chinese sub could reach our coast undetected in the first place.

Hell, I used to get info traffic when someone noticed from a satellite image that a foreign submarine (NK, China, India, etc) had left port, with analysis on what they were doing and where and when we would see them again within the next couple of days. On the occasions they don't see what they expect, someone's out there "coincidentally" in a pretty good position to check it out. And that's all I'll say about that.

On the other hand, last time I heard about a mystery like this, it was the sonic boom heard across multiple states. Of course, the military denied knowing what it was about. Later, it turned out to have been a SR-71 flight. (Sorry, can't find the link now.) Which goes to show that the military denying knowing what it was doesn't necessarily mean the military doesn't know what it was.
posted by ctmf at 10:43 AM on November 10, 2010 [1 favorite]

Unless it was a new class of missile that's invisible both to RADAR & every aircraft in the area besides the helicopter that filmed it, moves slower than any known rocket & changes course mid-flight, it was a plane.

You can't just ignore evidence that's inconvenient to your theory. Well apparently with the atrophied reasoning capacity of our media (& even more disturbingly our military) you can, but in a functioning information culture you wouldn't be able to get away with it.
posted by scalefree at 11:01 AM on November 10, 2010

ctmf: "Hell, I used to get info traffic when someone noticed from a satellite image that a foreign submarine (NK, China, India, etc) had left port, with analysis on what they were doing and where and when we would see them again within the next couple of days. On the occasions they don't see what they expect, someone's out there "coincidentally" in a pretty good position to check it out. And that's all I'll say about that."

Thanks for posting-- this was really interesting.
posted by sharkfu at 12:08 PM on November 10, 2010

Here's a blogger who claims It was US Airways Flight 808, complete with similar-looking image taken 24 hours later.
posted by Nelson at 2:31 PM on November 10, 2010

Finally a sensible explanation for the phenomenon.
posted by scalefree at 2:46 PM on November 10, 2010

So let's assume the Chinese have a superduper stealth submarine capable to cruising right up next to a Strategic Space Command facility and launching a missile of their own like the Pacific ocean was some kind of poorly managed geopolitical grade Plaster Blaster.

What do we do?

We have a big assed nuclear war and everyone dies. Did you miss the cold war?

I hear there's good loot to be had at the Repcon factory.
posted by Kid Charlemagne at 4:27 PM on November 10, 2010

The sub doesn't have to be super-duper stealthy, just the missile which didn't appear on anybody's RADAR & also was invisible to everybody except the crew of the traffic helicopter. But yeah, if it was something like that it'd be a huge international incident & likely recognized as a hostile act & grounds for war between superpowers, even if its trajectory was pointed away from our mainland. I don't think anybody has ever fired a missile of any sort this close to a nation with a significant military capability. It's an unimaginable act of aggression, almost certainly violating every treaty & Convention of War known to exist.

And as I hope we've established to everybody's (except maybe the UFO lady) satisfaction, it didn't happen.

It was a plane.
posted by scalefree at 6:15 PM on November 10, 2010

"The missiles are flying. Hallelujah. Hallelujah."
posted by kirkaracha at 6:18 PM on November 10, 2010

So let's say it was a plane. Trick of the light. Quirk of perspective. Fine. Great. No problem.

Then why the hell is NORAD still calling it a UFO? What possible use is it to the "organization charged with protecting the U.S. from the threat of missiles" to publicly announce that they are totally unable to track airplanes, let alone missiles, and this is just some unidentified whatever and they'll get back to us? After dismissing real spy planes as hallucinations for half a century, suddenly the Air Force is unwilling to call an airplane an airplane? After decades of lies about the shit that they actually do, the entire defense complex suddenly stubbornly unwilling to tell the truth about something they didn't do? If it is a passenger jet contrail, I'm afraid this situation is still weird and disturbing.

Also, one of the only things that made me think it was an airplane, was that all the missile contrails I've seen get this weird ghostly blue color as they get higher, which wasn't in the released video. But here's another eye-witness:

"If you traced it back away from the sea towards land, it became a sort of ghostly translucent dark blue color... I know the object didn’t go over land. So what was that blue continuation of the contrail that I saw?"
posted by zota at 6:48 PM on November 10, 2010

I've learned that it was Obama launching a missile at the Pleideans.
posted by wallstreet1929 at 8:55 PM on November 10, 2010 [1 favorite]

'Uh, everything's under control. Situation normal. Uh, we had a slight weapons malfunction, ... We're fine. We're all fine here now, thank you......How are you?'

B-BLAM! Boring conversation - anyway Chewie GET READ for COMPANY!


This is realy notihng Media hypel.

Some funky stugff ogig on right nw, Typeically the less i'm 0n metafilter., the more dangerous the sityatuoh is. Life's gotten interestng forme.
Sucks.

Sorry for the slightly disconnedte words tihing. Bit messed up puysically. Nothing some drugs and transplants can't fix,

Pakistan and China are concerned about the future considering India's more solid poston.
Which naybe is what gof fox new all riled up. And rea news statons as well.
I hope I'll be back aguing my silly perspective soon.

Much love.
posted by Smedleyman at 11:02 PM on November 10, 2010

I kind of love how NBC San Diego just quietly rewrote the entire article so it now says the opposite of what it said originally, but left the original user comments on the page completely intact.

There are basement bloggers in sweatpants with more journalistic integrity than that.
posted by ook at 6:34 AM on November 11, 2010

Then why the hell is NORAD still calling it a UFO? What possible use is it to the "organization charged with protecting the U.S. from the threat of missiles" to publicly announce that they are totally unable to track airplanes, let alone missiles, and this is just some unidentified whatever and they'll get back to us?

There's a general loss of expertise across the military that's been going on for around a decade. Mid-level officers are fleeing in droves, either moving into more lucrative positions with Defense contractors or away from an increasingly political military. Those that're left aren't the best & the brightest anymore, sorry to say. Remember the guys charged with swapping out live nukes for dummy loads who got confused & left the warheads in bombers sent on training runs across the US a few years back?

Yeah I'm not happy that the military got caught up in the wave of hysteria around this thing. But I'm not too surprised, it's just another sign of the ongoing decline of the US from its superpower peak.
posted by scalefree at 9:20 AM on November 11, 2010

While this far into the thread I'm left unsure why it matters whether it's a plane or a missile, I am a little bemused by the passion around the debate.

We have "experts" taking both sides. Based on what I know (from living in America for 46 years) about U. S. military public relations, I will reserve judgement until some branch of the military that actually has this in their purview specifically denies that it was a missile. And even then I won't care very much unless it ends up feeding yet another whackjob paranoid fantasy about devious yellow perils.
posted by lodurr at 12:25 PM on November 11, 2010

While this far into the thread I'm left unsure why it matters whether it's a plane or a missile, I am a little bemused by the passion around the debate.

We have "experts" taking both sides.

We may have "experts" on both sides, but from where I sit the evidence is overwhelmingly on one side. That's what's driving my passion, the apparent over-reliance of many "experts" on their own ability to distinguish between an airplane & rocket contrail in the face of so much undeniable evidence against their opinion. It's one thing to look at the video & make a snap judgment on whether it looks authentic or not, but as the evidence rolls in you need to reevaluate your opinion to account for everything we know. That's not what happened & that's what's got me so frustrated.

This is a study in cognitive failure, plain & simple. All these "experts" put all their faith in their own expertise at the expense of hard, concrete evidence pointing away from their position & towards another one. Why did that happen? What's the common cause for this massive analytical failure of so many people whose job it is to accurately analyze just this sort of phenomenon?
posted by scalefree at 4:40 PM on November 11, 2010

Wayne Madsen believes it was a Chinese "show of force":

China flexed its military muscle Monday evening in the skies west of Los Angeles when a Chinese Navy Jin class ballistic missile nuclear submarine, deployed secretly from its underground home base on the south coast of Hainan island, launched an intercontinental ballistic missile from international waters off the southern California coast. WMR’s intelligence sources in Asia, including Japan, say the belief by the military commands in Asia and the intelligence services is that the Chinese decided to demonstrate to the United States its capabilities on the eve of the G-20 Summit in Seoul and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Tokyo, where President Obama is scheduled to attend during his ten-day trip to Asia.
posted by thescientificmethhead at 10:03 PM on November 11, 2010

Sunset on November 8 from El Segundo - nothing in the sky but a fading jet contrail, pointed towards San Pedro. And looking southwest towards Catalina, clear skies.

The verdict of the coastal sunset photographers is in - it was an airplane. But now I'm even more fascinated by how this happened.

I'd still really like to see an uncut video of the helicopter illusion. And I'd love to hear from the local news producer who got the whole world talking about Chinese missiles over Catalina, with nothing more than snappy edits. Because that bastard is going to be President.
posted by zota at 12:24 AM on November 12, 2010 [1 favorite]

Blogger says that it was US Airways flight 808.
posted by PareidoliaticBoy at 12:32 AM on November 12, 2010 [2 favorites]

scalefree, you've got a point. I suppose it's analogous to the point some of us are trying to make w.r.t. the idea that it's a chinese show of force: that's an idea that requires so many extreme assumpions (e.g., the chinese would do something that stupid, our listening posts wouldn't hear a ballistic missile submarine, the chinese would then waste their capital by not talking about the launch, etc.) that it's kind of patently absurd on the face -- and yet it's got traction.

I guess the reason I'm merely "bemused" by the US-missile-launch idea is that I don't leap to the conclusion that it would be someone else's missile. If someone says it's a chinese missile, though, that seems crazy to me.
posted by lodurr at 7:40 AM on November 15, 2010