Is China eating our lunch, or not?
January 2, 2011 9:13 PM   Subscribe

China is eating our lunch, says one columnist. Obama called it a "Sputnik moment." When a Philadelphia football game was delayed because of snow, the governor of Pennsylvania said we had become a nation of wussies, and said, "The Chinese are kicking our butt in everything. If this was in China do you think the Chinese would have called off the game? People would have been marching down to the stadium, they would have walked and they would have been doing calculus on the way down." Not so fast there, says a guest writer to the Seattle Times: "To be sure, our 14th-to-25th ranking in the Program for International Student Assessment is no cause for complacency. Neither is China eating our lunch, or any meal — at least not yet." Which brings up the hokou system, which guarantees that the Chinese students measured for the test are the richest, best of the best in the country, and not the working poor of Shanghai. Some have called the system, which separates "urban" from "rural" workers, "China's apartheid."
posted by Cool Papa Bell (95 comments total) 18 users marked this as a favorite
 
As long as the west invents most everything and it's manufactured in the east, I think the west has nothing to worry about. And the football game would have been played in Chicago or Green Bay!
posted by lee at 9:20 PM on January 2, 2011


My mostly uninformed prediction is that China has some social turmoil coming its way in the next sometime and while it won't be fun for anyone economically it might impede their lunch-stealing for a while.

Also, how come it has to be a competition?
posted by ghharr at 9:26 PM on January 2, 2011 [3 favorites]


China's power comes from quantity, not necessarily quality. They're working on getting there, and anything that gets the US to focus investment on something other than bombs is a worthwhile effort. But their power, as well as India's comes from a rising middle class in countries with 3x the population of the US each.
posted by msbutah at 9:26 PM on January 2, 2011


Additionally their power comes from that rising middle class not demanding to be paid nearly as much as their American counterparts.

Yet.
posted by Navelgazer at 9:38 PM on January 2, 2011 [3 favorites]


"A lot of people say, that if you dig long enough and hard enough, you will get to China. And that may be true. But what they don’t tell you is that if you dig long enough and hard enough in a conversation, you get to a friend."
posted by ageispolis at 9:51 PM on January 2, 2011 [11 favorites]


The USA will succeed by winning the war against liberals. America is #1, it's anti-American to say otherwise, which is all liberals like PA Gov Ed Rendell talk about, they hate America.
posted by stbalbach at 9:53 PM on January 2, 2011 [4 favorites]


So, China is the new Russia? Is that the takeaway?
posted by electroboy at 9:57 PM on January 2, 2011


"The Chinese are kicking our butt in everything. If this was in China do you think the Chinese would have called off the game? People would have been marching down to the stadium, they would have walked
What the fuck? Actually, there were some paralyzing snowstorms in China last year and guess what: It was a huge fucking disaster! Just like anywhere else!
posted by delmoi at 9:58 PM on January 2, 2011 [4 favorites]


That's nothing compared to the pie that Uruguay stole while cooling on my windowsill.
posted by Dmenet at 10:00 PM on January 2, 2011 [8 favorites]


Seems like the takeaway here is the same as usual: America gives everybody a chance, so our schools are never going to measure up against countries that game the system, or that put less talented or fortunate students on a "technical track" before high school, or even force them out of school completely.

We (especially on the right) have been going on about how our schools are "bad" for decades now, but has there ever really been any evidence, besides that rash of "principal at the bad school" movies in the '80s? Sure schools in poorer areas have problems, but they are the problems of the community at large, not anything specifically to do with the schools.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure our schools are getting much worse- they can't not be, with all this "teaching to the test" and teacher's-union-busting. But none of that started until we started getting worried about how we had "bad schools."
posted by drjimmy11 at 10:05 PM on January 2, 2011 [14 favorites]


And frankly, if earthquakes are any guide, if the blizzard had been in China thousands of people would have died easily-preventable deaths, and then the government would have focused all its energy on pretending it didn't happen and punishing those who spoke out, instead of addressing the problems.
posted by drjimmy11 at 10:07 PM on January 2, 2011 [2 favorites]


Sure, drjimmy, but what are a few easily preventable motorist deaths compared to making sure that football will be played in any weather?

(Seriously though, driving in Philly? The streets are narrower than the cars.)
posted by Navelgazer at 10:16 PM on January 2, 2011


All I know is playing that game on Tuesday was wrong. It was clear the entire Eagles team was afflicted by some sort of voodoo football god curse because they cancelled the game. The Vikings just lost to the LIONS.

Whatever, Green Bay is going down and I can't wait for the Chinese Gridiron League to open. More football to watch will be great.
posted by furiousxgeorge at 10:18 PM on January 2, 2011


The only thing I get from the links is that is impossible to generalize about other cultures, and that most of what passes as "common knowledge" about other countries is totally false, and often a projection of our own fears.
posted by KokuRyu at 10:24 PM on January 2, 2011 [7 favorites]


wait, did china launch a football into space?
posted by pyramid termite at 10:24 PM on January 2, 2011


I Love China!
posted by clavdivs at 10:28 PM on January 2, 2011


China is in Asia.
posted by TwelveTwo at 10:29 PM on January 2, 2011


Heh, if China starts eating our lunch...watch Chinese obesity rates skyrocket.
posted by Xoebe at 10:37 PM on January 2, 2011 [11 favorites]


China is eating our lunch? Hogwash.

Look, America has one thing that *no* other country has - tons of it. We have it in such quantity that no country will ever catch us. That thing is cultural and social diversity, up the wazoo! China has been since day one, and still is, ruled from the center. That' a serious long term weakness when it comes to adaptive long-term sustainability. That said, America's diversity needs to be better unlocked, to spark the kinds of innovation (business, social, policy, etc.) that has made us great. Also, don't forget that we're largely so materially wealthy because we were the only ones left standing after WWII. That ride is over, and the horse is old. No way we're going back to where we were 20 years ago, but after a time of adaptation (10-15 years), we are going to be leaner and meaner as a nation than most. The hunt for material wealth as an end in itself is not that far from becoming outre', so China, with all its surface show of wealth is seriously on a path that will put it behind the times, over the long run. In all, I wouldn't worry, but we really do need to get down to brass tacks and rid ourselves of the demagogues from both parties that are currently holding us back. No answers there, but one answer I know won't work is the Tea Party (talk about a lack of diversity!)
posted by Vibrissae at 10:41 PM on January 2, 2011 [3 favorites]


I heard China is the next big thing; I read it a column by that Tim Friedman.
posted by SouthCNorthNY at 10:53 PM on January 2, 2011 [7 favorites]


Actually, TwelveTwo, China is in your hand
posted by MattMangels at 11:07 PM on January 2, 2011


It may be China's apartheid, but good luck having any sort of embargo like so many countries had with South Africa. That's assuming anybody in America even cares enough to make it a moral fuss.
posted by l2p at 11:31 PM on January 2, 2011


I had a "another country is kicking our butts" lecture when I was in high school. We were shown a TV documentary filmed in the late 90's that talked about Japanese schools and how much harder they worked compared to our lazy, midwestern asses. I'm not sure if the point was to guilt us into studying harder or what. In fact, I'm not sure the point of the "sputnik moment" or "nation of wussies" crap is for, except to guilt us into working harder. But this was sorta crammed down our collective throats, along with the idea that if we worked really hard we would get a Great Job in the Big City and go from lower middle class to lower upper class.

I was motivated to succeed because my home town was a shithole and I wanted to move, not because I thought it would help my country in the World Academic Pissing Match.
posted by hellojed at 11:45 PM on January 2, 2011 [7 favorites]




What the fuck? Actually, there were some paralyzing snowstorms in China last year and guess what: It was a huge fucking disaster! Just like anywhere else!

Ok, listen people.... the weather is now fucked up so everybody is liable to get snow... so it's time to man-up, buy shovels, enough snow-plows/blowers and winter tires. With that you get on with your life when it snows, Canada does it so can other countries ; )

A snow storm is an annoyance for parking and slows down transportation for those in car/buses, it is not a disaster over here. But that's because we have the proper equipment.
posted by coust at 12:58 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


As long as the west invents most everything and it's manufactured in the east, I think the west has nothing to worry about.

The culture-creator versus culture-bearer myth dies hard, doesn't it?
posted by L.P. Hatecraft at 1:06 AM on January 3, 2011 [2 favorites]


Look, America has one thing that *no* other country has - tons of it. We have it in such quantity that no country will ever catch us. That thing is cultural and social diversity, up the
wazoo!


India? South Africa? Indonesia? Peru? France? Canada? I mean, I see where you're going, but really.
posted by threeants at 1:14 AM on January 3, 2011 [12 favorites]


Aren't our cars eating our lunch?
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 1:16 AM on January 3, 2011


Lots of opinion here. Let's leaven it with a few facts: Yes, there are many significant social, cultural and environmental problems that China has to face. Right now, the Chinese population are (on the whole) willing to back a system that holds the promise of fantastic growth and opportunity, at considerable social cost.

There is an entirely understandable unwillingness for the United States to see this, or admit that it is happening. Every empire believes that its reign will be forever. Every empire believes itself to have the mandate of heaven. And every empire, inevitably, falls.

Things could still change... but it would be foolish to ignore the indicators.
posted by Bora Horza Gobuchul at 1:30 AM on January 3, 2011 [16 favorites]


Living in China the past 6 months has shown me that it is much like anywhere else. It has advantages, but it also has its challenges. I think the earlier comment about social upheaval somewhere down the line is a likely occurrence.

I see stupid disparities everywhere here in Shenzhen; this morning Mrs arcticseal and I were walking home and saw a Lamborghini pass us at the same time as a jobbing manual labourer on his ramshackle bike. They have hundreds of thousands of new graduates, but from my limited experience, they aren't as up to speed as graduates from other Asian countries such as Malaysia or Indonesia, so currently quantity is topping quality. Time will tell if they get a handle on that. This is in the economic boom zone, so who knows just how far behind the rural areas are?

The government is seeing these changes and is trying to keep the lid on it so the transition is manageable. I hope they find a way to make the move to democracy in a smooth manner, otherwise it's going to get messy.
posted by arcticseal at 1:40 AM on January 3, 2011 [2 favorites]


Are you actually sure that lunch was yours in the first place?
posted by Segundus at 2:33 AM on January 3, 2011 [10 favorites]


China has been since day one, and still is, ruled from the center. That' a serious long term weakness when it comes to adaptive long-term sustainability.

Surely this is an excessively simplistic way of looking at it? China's been around as an entity for at least 2200 years, arguably 3000 depending on what you're taking as day one. It's been ruled by a cavalcade of different ruling classes, fragmented, reunified, been colonised and risen back up. But in any case, it's definitely been around for the "long term", arguably more so than any other current political entity on earth, which surely puts the lie to the idea that China is particularly unstable in the long term.
posted by Dim Siawns at 2:37 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


China has been since day one, and still is, ruled from the center.

Someone needs to read Valerie Hansen's excellent book, The Open Empire
posted by I_pity_the_fool at 3:08 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


An Obama nutshell:
"We need a commitment to innovation we haven't seen since President Kennedy challenged us to go to the moon," Obama said at Forsyth Technical Community College.

He urged members of both parties to "focus on what is necessary to win the future."

Obama did not detail any new policy ideas to implement this goal, but emphasized he would spend the next several months looking for new ideas to increase innovation.
Kennedy challenged us with a specific goal. Obama first passed the buck to his imaginary bipartisan coalition, then told us he'll be thinking about it. That's some real leadershit there.
posted by Kirth Gerson at 3:16 AM on January 3, 2011 [13 favorites]


I've spent four years on the mainland and have a paper coming out about hukous in education this year. A few points:

- Chinese students do eat the lunch of American students in a lot of ways. Even the worse students I've taught study more than the best students I went to school with. There's, of course, issues with critical thinking not being taught and an overall lack of critical engagement with subjects. This is changing, slowly. 慢慢来. Give it time. Higher quality education mixed with the cultural obsession with education (that have given so many 外教 and unjustly high standard of living for having a fair skin color and foreign degree) is going to be a powerful combination.

- the hukou is nothing like apartheid, partly because it's accepted by those most effected by it. Contrary to @ghharr and common discourse, I've never seen any hint of wider social discord. There are isolated incidents, and plenty of them, but they're not aimed at The System. They're aimed at that asshole 暴发户 who didn't pay your wages or that official who pocketed too much from a land deal that your house was involved in. Partly this is because Beijing knows when to step in and make the bad guys go to jail (or a bullet) for larger social "harmony."

- Look at the hukou same way you think of the One Child policy: a morally difficult policy that would be impossible to enact in any liberal democracy with lots of short-term bad implantations but aiming towards a greater good. The greater good is that China has neither squatter slums nor the urban overcapacity in education and healthcare that plagues most developing countries. The government is promising government services to every citizen, just not wherever they want it. So while they close off Shanghai and Beijing schools to migrant children they do everything they can to keep the children in the countryside where they're getting better and better schools, teachers, and resources. The results are striking. Compare 5th grade completion or literacy rates for similar countries - China blows them all away (though the results are a little bit cooked, there's a truth to it). Go through the countryside and it's just the elderly and children. Unlike in Manila, for instance, there's not a lot of whole-family migration to the cities amongst the rural poor. Parents and young adults go off and find work in the city for what is usually a long-term but temporary move.

- China does not simply produce, nor do they just produce for the bottom end of the food chain. Remember that almost every component for Apple products is coming out of the Pearl River delta. It's an entire supply chain minus the raw materials. Most foreign ventures require some degree of IP transfer. Chinese manufacturers are learning and learning fast.

- There's a revolution that's going to sweep over electronics in the next few years and it's going to come from 2-3 man companies designing and manufacturing products with the same components the heavyweight use. I've seen two college grads in a Starbucks designing an Android phone on their laptops. While most of what we've seen of shanzhai/山寨 products is crap, some of is quite remarkable (http://goo.gl/vDJRM)
posted by trinarian at 3:37 AM on January 3, 2011 [28 favorites]


Heh, if China starts eating our lunch...watch Chinese obesity rates skyrocket.

Already happening.

Fat China: How Expanding Waistlines are Changing a Nation (China in the 21st Century)
posted by gen at 4:19 AM on January 3, 2011


  I think the US is used to being the "best" and wins that argument based on having the largest population versus other rich countries. That will cease to be the case as the US cannot compete with China and India on pure population numbers. And other countries like Brazil will be competitors.
   For instance Australia has a significantly higher foreign born population than the US (19.93% vs. 12.81%). The US wins by sheer number of immigrants, which of course is a function of current population.
   The US has the largest economy in the world (arguably the EU is bigger), but once again because of population. Per capita, the US isn't the highest(8th or so). Norway is higher (but they have lots of oil), so did the US not long ago.
  My point being that the US is still a very exceptional country, but it has to get used to not thinking it is the best at things simply because it has the highest population. China should be graduating more university grads. China should have a higher GDP overall (they don't yet).
posted by sety at 4:27 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


What is the deal with all of these politicians lately calling for us to become more like politically repressive China? I remember just a few weeks ago, Joe Lieberman was demanding that we build the ability to censor the internet, because China can do it and we can't allow a repression gap.
posted by indubitable at 4:36 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


"A Tea Party Introduction To The Lunch Stealing Crisis":

[LUNCHROOM, LUNCHTIME. SUBTITLE: "RECENTLY"]
Pasty, obese child: Aww man, my mom didn't give me enough caviar and unicorn-meat today. Hey, China, give me yours, too. I'll pay you back.

Lean, smug-looking child: I don't know, America, I've been giving you my lunch for the last two months and I am not sure that the school year will be long enough for you to repay me. But here. Now you owe me 48 lunches.

America: Fine, fine.

[AMERICA SHOVELS FOOD INTO MOUTH]
[AMERICA CHOKES A LITTLE, FARTS, LOOKS RATHER PLEASED WITH HIMSELF]
[FADE OUT]

[FADE IN]
[SUBTITLE: "SOON"]

China: Whelp, I told my mom she could take the next few months off as a Mothers Day gift. Give me your lunch, America.

[CAMERA ZOOMS IN ON AMERICA'S BLOATED, MOIST FACE]

America: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[SOUND OF BIRDS FLYING AWAY, PEOPLE GASPING, GOATS BLEATING]

[CAMERA ZOOMS IN ON CHINA'S MALICIOUS, SCHEMING VISAGE]

China: Mwahahaha NOW I AM EATING YOUR LUNCH, AMERICA! AND FOREVER MORE YOUR LUNCH WILL BE MINE!

[CAMERA ZOOMS OUT, SHOWS CHINA GLOATING WHILST AMERICA SHAKES A FIST AT THE HEAVEN THAT HAS SO CRUELLY DENIED IT SUPERIOR LUNCH-TRADING SKILLS]

[END CREDITS ROLL OVER A PHOTO OF PUPPIES WEARING AMERICAN FLAG CAPES EATING TINS OF FOOD MARKED "MY LUNCH"]

posted by cmonkey at 4:40 AM on January 3, 2011 [3 favorites]


Dmenet: That's nothing compared to the pie that Uruguay stole while cooling on my windowsill.

Why Uruguay was cooling on my windowsill, I'll never know. *rimshot*
posted by Anyamatopoeia at 4:42 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


* China has twice as many university graduates as the United States right now, and that number is only set to climb.
* 426,000 patents were filed in China in the first half of 2009 alone... China is on track to file the most number of patents worldwide this year.
* 24% of China's population is equal to the entire US population. Demographics is destiny.
* Google data graph of Chinese vs US GNP.
* China is expanding, not going toe-to-toe with the US but making very clever long-term investments in Africa
* US billionaires are immersing their children in Mandarin.


* Twice as many university graduates for three times the population, and no claims of how a US university education compares to a Chinese one.
* Number of patents is largely a function of legal structure and corporate culture. All I know is that people file frivolous patents in the US, but how can we really compare figures for 2 countries?
* Insofar as we believe that all peoples have similar potential, the argument "Demographics is destiny" is compelling. The reality is that more is not always better. Compare the innovation of lean, <10-person companies versus big "corporate" monstrosities. It's just as important to consider how people are utilized as how many you have.
* China is expanding and rapidly industrializing, for sure, but how much of it is real versus propaganda? Furthermore, their rapid pace could easily cool down to a more modest rate of growth.
* China is not making "long-term investments" in Africa. They're exploiting Africa similar to how Europe did 100 years ago. Not with out-right colonies, but with exploitative business investments, mines, and so forth. This won't be allowed to continue forever. Either African nations will stabilize and boot out the Chinese, or competing nations will find ways to destabilize and sabotage Chinese operations.
* 20 years ago, teaching your kids Spanish was considered important for success in business. Educational trends are just as often trendy as informative.

Don't get me wrong, China's a major economic force, but what's good for China isn't necessarily bad for the US. Our downfall will be our fault, our failure to innovate and improve our own lot, not an outside force overtaking us. "Beating China" needs to take a back seat to "Improving the US," and worrying about how we stack up to a very different country isn't going to help.
posted by explosion at 4:54 AM on January 3, 2011 [8 favorites]


Remember that almost every component for Apple products is coming out of the Pearl River delta.

This is simply not true. If you take a look at the parts list for the iPhone 3GS or the iPhone 4, there are many parts from manufacturers outside of China. Final assembly is China, yes, but the CPU and the RAM and the many of the other critical parts are not 'made in China'.
posted by gen at 4:57 AM on January 3, 2011 [2 favorites]


Obama called it a "Sputnik moment", but the URL identifies it as a "new Sputnik mom", which sounds like an issue that the Traditional Values Army will be all up-in-arms about and it's too early in the morning, indeed too early in the year, for me to contemplate that.
posted by Wolfdog at 5:51 AM on January 3, 2011


If they actually did outperform us on intelligence tests without cheating, then one would hope that they would also be smart enough to call a game during a blizzard and not have to prove their manliness.
posted by outlandishmarxist at 6:15 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


"If this was in China do you think the Chinese would have called off the game? People would have been marching down to the stadium, they would have walked..."

And they probably would have had 100 fatalities in the process.

Not caring about the welfare of your citizens and not being a "wussy" are two different things.
posted by VTX at 6:24 AM on January 3, 2011


Look, America has one thing that *no* other country has - tons of it. We have it in such quantity that no country will ever catch us. That thing is cultural and social diversity, up the wazoo! China has been since day one, and still is, ruled from the center. That' a serious long term weakness when it comes to adaptive long-term sustainability. That said, America's diversity needs to be better unlocked, to spark the kinds of innovation (business, social, policy, etc.) that has made us great.

This sounds suspiciously like American Exceptionalism 2.0. We love to take on premise that diversity is awesome, but I can't see any really clear evidence that it's the case. It seems like it could be equally true that the US has prospered, throughout its history but particularly in the latter half of the 20th century, largely despite its diversity, rather than because of it.

After all, if World War II had been fought across and devastated the US rather than Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, we might be taking on premise the obvious superiority of centralized economic planning over chaotic and inefficient capitalism. Isn't it similarly possible that we're making a correlation-causation error with regards to diversity, in assuming that because the US has been successful, and the US is diverse, that diversity is necessarily the key to success? There are many other reasons why the US managed to dominate the 20th century which have little to do with diversity.

I can imagine a number of futures -- none of them very pleasant -- where small, homogeneous societies run by elites are able to run circles around large, heterogeneous societies with deep internal divisions and ponderous democratic governmental structures. I'm not necessarily making any sort of predictions, but just suggesting that there is nothing that makes these futures obviously less plausible than the rosy ones in which our diversity conquers all.
posted by Kadin2048 at 6:25 AM on January 3, 2011 [6 favorites]


Ed Rendell? What a schmuck. In two weeks he's out of office and looking for a job. Eagles Prez Joe Banner: "I think Ed Rendell is a little attention starved." Pretty irresponsible for the Governor of the state of PA to say what he did. "Get out there and drive around, forget the snow emergency that has been declared in the City of Philadelphia, don't be a wuss!" This is the same guy, who while between jobs in 1989 bet his buddy $20 he couldn't reach the field with a snowball thrown from the stands at the old Veteran's Stadium. Pure class, Eddie.
posted by fixedgear at 7:24 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


During the 20th Century, Americans bought into their own propaganda a little too much. Instead of thinking we were on top of the world because we were the only Western nation uncrushed by WWII, we thought it was because of our "hard-working American spirit." just another brand of exceptionalism, like the idea of Manifest Destiny that had us crushing the Mexicans on the way to the Pacific. Nothing to do with our ruthless imperialism -- no, our destiny was manifest, intended by God! Urgh.

Meanwhile, China -- a nation which has been at least a regional power for thousands of years -- quietly built itself into a modern superpower, and all we can do is bluster about factors that supposedly make it impossible for China to overtake us.

How's this? Their military and supposed lack of innovation are irrelevant because, as soon as we show any kind of uppity behavior, they can call in our debt and our entire country will collapse like a popped balloon.
posted by sonic meat machine at 7:24 AM on January 3, 2011 [2 favorites]


Sure schools in poorer areas have problems, but they are the problems of the community at large, not anything specifically to do with the schools.

Look. I'm not on the anti-teacher/anti-union bandwagon, but schools in poorer districts tend to be deeply dysfunctional, and not only because of the less affluent student body and/or limited funding. NYC's "rubber room" fiasco illustrates the point rather well.

There's plenty of discussion to be had on this subject -- it's a nasty issue, and a difficult cycle to break. However, I do think that you're doing a great disservice by claiming that bad schools in poor areas is an inherent (and therefore unavoidable) problem. The problem is not the poor themselves, but that the government has done an exceptionally awful job of representing the interests of the poor.
posted by schmod at 7:26 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


What does that mean? Huh? "China is here." I don't even know what the hell that means.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:40 AM on January 3, 2011 [2 favorites]


Look. I'm not on the anti-teacher/anti-union bandwagon, but schools in poorer districts tend to be deeply dysfunctional, and not only because of the less affluent student body and/or limited funding.

Virtually every aspect of poorer communities tends to be deeply dysfunctional compared to wealthier communities. It seems like a basic reasoning error to attribute the root cause of that dysfunction strictly or even especially to any special feature of the school systems in poorer communities. If there's a gap, what makes you so certain the gap isn't mostly due if not to the less affluent student body or the limited funding then to the more general kinds of systemic dysfunction generally found in poorer communities?
posted by saulgoodman at 7:54 AM on January 3, 2011


as soon as we show any kind of uppity behavior, they can call in our debt

That's not how finance works, and regardless, it's something you would never, ever want to do. Why would you want to bankrupt your best customer? If your customers are bankrupt, who is going to buy your stuff tomorrow?

When you owe the bank a hundred dollars, you have a problem. When you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank has a partner.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 8:02 AM on January 3, 2011


We love to take on premise that diversity is awesome, but I can't see any really clear evidence that it's the case.

Look at the last century of popular music. Is there another country where an African instrument (banjo) became one of the key components of a musical form based largely on English/Irish traditional music (bluegrass)? Jazz, rock, hip-hop, country and house music were all largely, or entirely created in the US, and our cultural diversity was clearly a driver for much of their development. Would it be so strange to guess that there may be other, less obvious cases in other areas?
posted by snofoam at 8:04 AM on January 3, 2011


@gen clearly not *every* Apple part was manufactured in the PRD but I think it'd be very wrong to say it was simply "put together" in China as if just snapping Lego pieces together. Let's not forget China is one of two countries in the business of putting people into space and they just built the world's fastest computer.

Don't let names on the BOM like Samung fool you. There was a Samsung factory five minutes from my house in Shenzhen. Second, as the "Apple" BOM attests - Apple isn't manufacturing at all. Neither is Dell, Samsung, Nokia, HP, Sony, or any of the other names you know. They have companies like Huawei and Foxconn do it for them. I had two students who worked in the same factory that made the bodies for both Nokia and Samsung!

I think there's a good question to be asked about what is made where. For instance, how much of a Hummingbird CPU is made in Korea and how much in China? How much will that change in one or two years as other manufacturers catch up and Samsung can drop their guard? How much is intellectual property management the reason why it stays in home factories in Korea? How much of it is research to learn the ins and outs of QC for the product before they send thousands of miles away from the scientists and engineers who developed it? I don't have the answers.

Take a dive in www.alibaba.com to explore Chinese sourcing.
posted by trinarian at 8:09 AM on January 3, 2011


Look, America has one thing that *no* other country has - tons of it. We have it in such quantity that no country will ever catch us. That thing is cultural and social diversity, up the wazoo!

As a non-American, it's really irritating to read this sort of thing time and time again on MetaFilter.

The United States (which has only one official language) is not unique in regards to diversity. France's president Sarkozy is the child of immigrants, for example. Brazil, Canada, Australia, and other countries are built on immigration, and many, many, many other countries are formed of collections of ethnic communities. India is the most obvious example.

But China, at least on paper, is far more diverse than the US. There are at least 56 different ethnic groups in China, each with their own language.
posted by KokuRyu at 8:18 AM on January 3, 2011 [9 favorites]


as soon as we show any kind of uppity behavior, they can call in our debt

[morbo]TREASURIES DO NOT WORK THAT WAY![/morbo]
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 8:20 AM on January 3, 2011 [2 favorites]


Really? How about they say "we won't buy any more until you pay these off."
posted by sonic meat machine at 8:24 AM on January 3, 2011


A thought about China & Superpowerdom. I believe the CCP when they say they have no intention of being a "superpower" in a projectionist sense. They have enough problems at home to deal with. The problem is that "home" is a rather large area that includes a lot of land and sea claimed by others. Every Chinese map dips down into the South China Sea. Everything south of Hainan betwixt the Philippines and Vietnam is "home." So are those islands they were squabbling with Japan over last month. So is Taiwan. So is a whole chunk of land between Tibet and India.

For anyone interested in how this all might play out and how America and China will likely come to arms in the future, I highly recommend John Mearsheimer's speech in Australia this past August. Mearsheimer's point as I understand it is that a) America won't retreat from what it already has, which is to say every inch of international waters/airways, b) China will want to assert itself more in the neighborhood to protect its interests which now are "protected" by the US Navy, c) accidents happens when ships and jets pass each other puffing chests, and d) leaders can't read each others minds and usually assume the worst during military confrontations to play it safe.
posted by trinarian at 8:25 AM on January 3, 2011


France's president Sarkozy is the child of immigrants, for example.

But, although they don't take official figures of race in France, it's estimated to be over 90% white. The US is around 75% white if you include hispanic whites. Sarkozy doesn't prove that France is comparably diverse.

There are at least 56 different ethnic groups in China, each with their own language.

There are more than this many ethnic groups in Queens.

The world is clearly becoming more multicultural as people find it easier to move, but none of your examples seem to show that anywhere else is as diverse as the US.
posted by snofoam at 8:33 AM on January 3, 2011


is diversity about skin colour, or language/culture?

the US has more non-White people than Canada, but a very large part of those non-White people are born in the US, speak English are American in culture (African-American), while a large number of the non-English people in the US speak one specific language (Spanish), and even then many are American by birth.

Both Canada and Australia have a much higher percentage of the population who are immigrants (abt 18% and 21% respectively, versus 12%), speaking a wide variety and languages and bringing with them personal experience and knowledge of hundreds of cultures.

Unless you are going to argue that skin colour has a greater effect on one's thinking than language and culture, which would be kind of racist, it's clear that places with higher immigrant percentages like Aus and Can have a greater cultural diversity and more international connections per capita than the US.
posted by jb at 8:50 AM on January 3, 2011


I'm gonna chime in and say that India is going to be the countries who might eat lunch.

I have a close friend who works for the Commerce department. As part of anti-dumping investigations, she has personally, on-site, reviewed the books of dozens and dozens of Chinese companies. They are all represented by white-shoe US firms and usually three sets of books are brought out. The first shows profit and no dumping. When asked, a second set of books, showing profit and dumping is produced. A final request produces the third set, the most accurate, which makes it clear these companies have terrible accounting and can't even tell if they are profitable or not. In short, from her highly informed prespective, China is a lot less of a threat than the Thomas Friedman's make it out to be.

Take India, by contrast. I'd venture a guess they have 100,000,000 fluent English speakers. They have a larger share of the software market than China, and many more of them travel overseas for work. They also are much closer to developing an independent middle class that can demand accountability from their political leaders.
posted by Ironmouth at 8:57 AM on January 3, 2011 [5 favorites]


America gives everybody a chance, so our schools are never going to measure up against countries that game the system, or that put less talented or fortunate students on a "technical track" before high school, or even force them out of school completely.

We (especially on the right) have been going on about how our schools are "bad" for decades now, but has there ever really been any evidence, besides that rash of "principal at the bad school" movies in the '80s? Sure schools in poorer areas have problems, but they are the problems of the community at large, not anything specifically to do with the schools.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure our schools are getting much worse- they can't not be, with all this "teaching to the test" and teacher's-union-busting. But none of that started until we started getting worried about how we had "bad schools."


So right on.
posted by Ironmouth at 9:01 AM on January 3, 2011


Toronto is 47% non-white. but more importantly, Half of all Torontonians - white or non-white - were born outside of Canada.

Facts on Toronto.

New York City is 2-3 times larger than Toronto and less "White" (35% White non-hispanic, but comparisons are hard because many Canadians don't consider Hispanic people to be necessarily non-White). But only 36% of New Yorkers are foreign-born, in what one would think would be a Mecca for immigrants.

So again, unless skin colour= cultural diversity, regardless of language or country of origin, Toronto is more culturally diverse than New York City.
posted by jb at 9:03 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


The United States (which has only one official language)

Actually, the United States has zero official languages.
posted by threeants at 9:05 AM on January 3, 2011 [6 favorites]


Unlike U.S. students, Chinese children are single-mindedly focused on the academic achievement needed to get that job so they can secure their parents' and their own livelihoods — in that order.

These types of blanket statements are why newspaper columnists should never be listened to, with the exception of Krugman on economics.
posted by Ironmouth at 9:09 AM on January 3, 2011


Oh by the way, a report I heard said the concern about the game was a forecast for heavy snow around the time the game would end and there were fears that it would make life hellish for people trying to get home.
posted by ambient2 at 9:26 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


"But, although they don't take official figures of race in France, it's estimated to be over 90% white. The US is around 75% white if you include hispanic whites. Sarkozy doesn't prove that France is comparably diverse."

This like saying that, since almost all of the people in Asia are, you know, ethnically Asian, they are all one culture. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm don't really want to engage in the debate, I'm just saying that you can't, or at least, shouldn't base analysis of cultural diversity on ethnicity.
posted by VTX at 9:27 AM on January 3, 2011


@Ironmouth your friends story rings true of my own experience. I'd say though that the amazing thing about China is that it IS that disorganized but the growth is also real. The closest thing that I have to an answer is that there's something cultural going on that's invisible to us but plainly visible to them, a hierarchy and organization and just way of getting things done. As a linguistic example, you'll often hear "马上到了 / it's almost here." My Chinese friends always seemed to know, based on contextual clues that I can't read, whether that meant 5, 10, 30 or 90 minutes. I can't tell you how many hours I've waisted sitting waiting for a product to arrive or something to get fixed hearing that and assuming it meant, as the dictionary would imply, any moment now (as it sometimes did). A better example is in the Hessler book I linked to above where he presses a factory boss to explain how he knows when how much to pay off government bureaucrats and with which mixture of gifts (bottles liquor, boxes of cigarettes, red envelopes stuffed with cash). The boss can only answer, "even a ten year old knows!" I don't think any American, no matter how long they lived there, could ever figure it out.

Comparing India to China though: a) if English were the magic variable to economic development than Nigeria, Kenya, and the Philippines should just be around the corner too, b) I don't have the numbers in front of me, but China is surely blowing India away in pure infrastructure investment. They built in like three years the same mileage as the entire US highway system, almost every airport is sparkley new, and they're connecting the entire eastern seaboard with high-speed rail. I can already get from Hong Kong to downtown Guangzhou in under two hours. They're dumping billions of dollars into shaving 45 minutes off that. Part of that comes from a non-democratic system where when the government tells you to move, you (usually) do.

One of my former private students was a Taiwanese factory boss. He's moving his plant from Shenzhen to Chengdu. Besides all the government subsidies and handouts for him to do so, he was telling me that they're building a new extension to the Trans-Siberian such that shipping to Europe will only take a day longer than it would from Shenzhen by sea. The interior is opening. I just don't see how India can compete...
posted by trinarian at 9:30 AM on January 3, 2011


is diversity about skin colour, or language/culture?

To me, diversity is about culture, but no one really tallies data on that. Language, race or country of origin to me are all proxies for estimating cultural diversity, but none are true measures. Clearly, it is tough to figure out how to weigh these factors. For example, from wikipedia, over 30% of foreign-born Australians came from the UK or New Zealand, while only three english-speaking countries are in the US top ten: the Philippines, India and Canada. I'm not sure about Canada, but it looked like the UK was their top immigrant country of origin in 2006, but Asian immigrants are dominant since the 1990s.

I would also think that two (perhaps conflicting) factors also impact diversity in any country. One is how much those cultures mix. Having different cultures largely occupying different areas will probably not result in the maximum benefit of diversity (for example, having a Kurdish population largely centered in one geographic area of a country versus a place like Queens where a huge variety of cultural groups are coexisting in the same space). The other is the cultural aspects that may or may not persist beyond first generation immigrants. The US has a very diverse cultural heritage beyond recent immigrants, and while many parts of these cultural heritages are lost over the years, some may remain.

Maybe Australia and Canada are more culturally diverse than the US, but I wouldn't agree that they are simply because they currently have more first generation immigrants.
posted by snofoam at 9:32 AM on January 3, 2011


Final thought: anyone interested in this should read Paul Krugman's essay from 1994: The Myth of Asia's Miracle.
posted by trinarian at 9:35 AM on January 3, 2011


The world is clearly becoming more multicultural as people find it easier to move, but none of your examples seem to show that anywhere else is as diverse as the US.

Or arguably less so as smaller cultures die out or get co-opted by the powerhouse cultures. On the other hand, lots of smaller cultures are trying to break off and assert their special snowflakiness. (Who here remembers Yugoslavia? Czechoslovakia?)

Which trend wins out in the end? Your guess is as good as mine, probably better. My thoughts are that China's going to be in a heap of trouble what with its own kind of diversity - but I could be wrong.

China has twice as many university graduates as the United States right now, and that number is only set to climb. Think that the bright but impoverished lads of Liverpool and Ulster were graduating from Eton and Cambridge when the British Empire was ascending in the 19th century?

How good are these universities?

US billionaires are immersing their children in Mandarin.


One Jim Rogers does not a summer make. (And what languages are Chinese billionaires immersing their children in, ey? Ey?)
posted by IndigoJones at 9:35 AM on January 3, 2011


I hope I explained it in my last comment, but because there were a couple while I was writing it, no, I don't think race = cultural diversity. I'm ethnically half-Japanese, but anyone who has spent a year teaching English in Japan surely knows ten times as much about Japanese culture as I do.

At the same time, "western" cultures do have a lot of commonality. I live in the French West Indies now and lots of my friends are from France. While there are certainly some cultural differences, they aren't that big. There are, generally speaking, bigger cultural differences between the people who grew up on this island and French or Americans (of course, if they went to college in France or America, the differences are much smaller). People who grew up on this island also find there are big differences between themselves and more recent immigrants from other parts of the Caribbean. For comparison, I have a close friend here from the UK and both of us have a tendency to say "I have a cunning plan..." because we both watched Blackadder as kids. We're racially different and from different countries, but the culture is pretty close.
posted by snofoam at 9:50 AM on January 3, 2011


Or arguably less so as smaller cultures die out or get co-opted by the powerhouse cultures.

This is a very good point. It does seem that historical cultural differences are a sort of non-renewable resource that we are using up, like languages in New Guinea.
posted by snofoam at 10:22 AM on January 3, 2011


I, for one, barely eat lunch anyways. Enjoy it china. Save me some dinner plz.
posted by thsmchnekllsfascists at 10:26 AM on January 3, 2011


"China will grow stronger!" *trundles off in bulldozer to build nuclear reactor*
posted by Baby_Balrog at 11:25 AM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


China continues to stretch its regional military power. Summarizing from the DOD Buzz article Dealing With a Rising China, December 31, 2010:
• Chinese leadership has an increasingly capable military at its disposal, and the factors shaping that military remain opaque.

• According to the U.S. Pacific Command, China’s DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile has reached initial operational capability. Developed to target U.S. carrier strike groups, it has been distributed to some PLA units much earlier than expected.

• Chinese Internet sites revealed pictures of a possible Chinese stealth-type fighter aircraft referred to as the J-20 [previously on MeFi].

• The Chinese carrier Shi Lang may be ready for launch in 2011, ahead of earlier estimates.

• By 2010, there was more discussion about joint PLA operations between air and ground forces, without the pressure of ongoing wars or current military threats.

• Beijing uses military-to-military exchanges with the U.S. as opportunities to gain information, press their political/diplomatic agenda, and demand changes in fundamental U.S. policy.
If a historic military confrontation occurs, it won't be nuclear war, but it won't be the Boxer Rebellion redux, either.
posted by cenoxo at 1:03 PM on January 3, 2011


Really? How about they say "we won't buy any more until you pay these off."

If you have a lot of cash lying around, you want to put it somewhere safe. Treasuries are what you buy in this instance; when someone talks about Chinese owning U.S. debt, this is what they're talking about.

You buy U.S. Treasuries because they're safe. They're backed by a sovereign government that is, for all intents and purposes, physically unassailable and economically vibrant enough to continue growing for a long, long time.

The fact that China has invested so much in Treasuries means the opposite of what you might think it means. They don't think we're punks. They think we're the best people on the planet to be holding their money. They think we're good for it, and everything else represents a little bit too much risk.

And you don't generally fuck with the guy holding that much of your money. If you're a loanshark, yeah, you send Rocky Balboa out to break some thumbs. But what if the guy that owes you money also buys all your electronics and toys and toasters? You gonna break his thumbs and scare him away? Who are you going to sell to?

It's not like you have 1 billion Chinese and Indian peasants pounding on your door to buy the iPhones you're making. They're too busy buying rice. To eat.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 1:29 PM on January 3, 2011


I'm having a hard time seeing what the difference is between an American carrier battle group and a Chinese carrier battle group, or an American ballistic ship-to-ship and its Chinese counterpart.

China wants to safeguard its shipping lanes and project power, just as the US does. For the rest of the world, this equals the current status quo.
posted by KokuRyu at 1:40 PM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


I understand that Michael Chrichton is updating "Rising Sun" by doing a global search-and-replace from "Japanese" to "Chinese".
posted by happyroach at 1:42 PM on January 3, 2011 [3 favorites]


I am an immigrant in the US and have been living here since 8 years. I now see it as a very closed society. And while I have grown personally I somehow regret all those wasted years. I have been to China and honestly, I can't wait to move there. There, it is happening.
posted by yoyo_nyc at 1:56 PM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


China wants to safeguard its shipping lanes and project power, just as the US does.

Yes.

For the rest of the world, this equals the current status quo.

No.
posted by absalom at 3:03 PM on January 3, 2011


Obama first passed the buck to his imaginary bipartisan coalition, then told us he'll be thinking about it. That's some real leadershit there.

A game of multi-dimensional chess takes a long time to play.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 3:17 PM on January 3, 2011 [1 favorite]


happyroach: He'd have to take the term "Ghost Writer" fairly literally, given that he died 2 years ago.

Nobody seems to know, which is the odd thing.
posted by Grimgrin at 4:25 PM on January 3, 2011


I understand that Michael Chrichton is updating "Rising Sun" by doing a global search-and-replace from "Japanese" to "Chinese".

I understand that Michael Crichton has been dead for some time now.
posted by Kirth Gerson at 5:01 PM on January 3, 2011


Speaking of which, I have a coworker who is reading "Shogun" by James Clavell in order to "get some background on Japanese history and culture."
posted by KokuRyu at 5:36 PM on January 3, 2011


One of my former private students was a Taiwanese factory boss. He's moving his plant from Shenzhen to Chengdu. Besides all the government subsidies and handouts for him to do so, he was telling me that they're building a new extension to the Trans-Siberian such that shipping to Europe will only take a day longer than it would from Shenzhen by sea. The interior is opening. I just don't see how India can compete...

It is simple. There is only a short amount of time a country can specialize in being the manufacturer du jour. Eventually, the lower labor costs will move the work offshore. Japan is the prime example of this. In the end, there can be no long-term money in manufacturing--competition cuts margins and the only alternative is going offshore. You only need to look at the history of manufacturing--England led from 1780 to 1875, Germany from 1875 to 1918, the US from 1918 to 1980, Japan from 1980 to 1995, and China from here until ? It is a model that never lasts without some serious prop up from monetary and trade policy which works against the development of internal markets (dumping). And that is basically what China does.

The real money, long-term, is in software and services. Because in software you can invent new ways of doing things and do things that have never been done. And services will always have demand, because there will always be people. And that is exactly where India is going to be crushing everyone soon enough.

This is also why America has a longer time to go than people realize--and this is exactly where China is weak. There is little reward for innovation in a society without the rule of law and where informal networks of bribery and corruption dominate. Why should a innovator innovate when the nephew of the local district chief is going to show up with a few guys in suits and take over, with no recourse to the law?
posted by Ironmouth at 7:42 PM on January 3, 2011


China wants to safeguard its shipping lanes and project power, just as the US does.

Yes.

For the rest of the world, this equals the current status quo.

No.


gotta disagree. It is the status quo.
posted by Ironmouth at 7:44 PM on January 3, 2011


i want to be that chinese stuff battled tested
posted by clavdivs at 7:58 PM on January 3, 2011


You'd like to see a war of some kind, then?
posted by Kirth Gerson at 6:33 AM on January 4, 2011


Look, America has one thing that *no* other country has - tons of it. We have it in such quantity that no country will ever catch us. That thing is cultural and social diversity, up the wazoo! China has been since day one, and still is, ruled from the center. That' a serious long term weakness when it comes to adaptive long-term sustainability. That said, America's diversity needs to be better unlocked, to spark the kinds of innovation (business, social, policy, etc.) that has made us great.

"Celebrating diversity" is a civic virtue that is necessary for America to function as a unified country in the absence of common ethnic/national identity. But we're not the only country in the world that has had to forge a common national identity out of a diverse populace-- look at India or even 19th century Germany. Or, heck, France. The USA is a bit different because we're trying to keep our country together without actively stamping out our regional/cultural differences.

What's sparked the kinds of innovations that made us great was not diversity per se but rather the fact that the best minds in the world, if they had the choice to move anywhere, could move to the USA where they would be able to do whatever they wanted to do with their lives.

And historically, what has made countries great isn't necessarily their diversity (how diverse were the Netherlands, ever?), but rather and outward-thinking mindset that rejected insularity and was willing to incorporate all sorts of ideas. The danger comes when we think we are so great that no one else and no other countries could possibly have any better ideas.
posted by deanc at 8:37 AM on January 4, 2011 [1 favorite]


You'd like to see a war of some kind, then?
posted by Kirth Gerson

Heavens no, thanks for bringing that up. That term is valid in military testing. Testing for battle. The weapons have to be tested to prove effectiveness by destroying targets in this case, not other countries navies. No, China I would venture to say is reaching a point were China must have the necessary weapons to combat any threat. This is to be expected of any nation that has Nuclear weapons. The hardening aspect comes with multiple testing and necessary adjustments. In essence the more correct term is ‘combat effective‘. This was an error on my behave for which I apologize if it has caused offense.
posted by clavdivs at 8:20 PM on January 4, 2011


A game of multi-dimensional chess takes a long time to play.

politics is not chess, it's poker
posted by pyramid termite at 12:28 AM on January 5, 2011


Are you sure it's not Bingo?
posted by Kirth Gerson at 3:07 PM on January 5, 2011


GO
posted by clavdivs at 7:49 PM on January 5, 2011


BEIJING—A Chinese newspaper published the first state media report Wednesday about pictures circulating online that appear to show a prototype of China's first stealth fighter jet making high-speed taxi tests.
posted by clavdivs at 12:22 AM on January 6, 2011


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