The Political Logic of Hard Brexit
October 11, 2016 11:05 AM Subscribe
A majority of UK voters oppose hard Brexit, and yet the government seems to be pursuing it. Why?
Jacek Rostowski offers a cynical explanation.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
And, dear god, are the Tory party the party of stupidity.
posted by The River Ivel at 11:28 AM on October 11, 2016 [14 favorites]
And, dear god, are the Tory party the party of stupidity.
posted by The River Ivel at 11:28 AM on October 11, 2016 [14 favorites]
I think we should try to hold on to the fact that the process of deciding what the terms of Brexit will be has not even really begun yet. It's 'careening out of control' in much the same way as a car that hasn't left the garage.
posted by Segundus at 11:42 AM on October 11, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by Segundus at 11:42 AM on October 11, 2016 [5 favorites]
They're only recognizing what is legally possible. There is no other Brexit but hard. A soft Brexit is a myth based on the false theory that the EU would be crawling back on its hands and knees trying to keep the UK in the single market. The EU parliament in reality will be down at the Port of Brussels gleefully waving them goodbye into the sunset. The UK will need to triggle Article 50, the EU will do effectively zero political groundwork during that time, and only then will the EU let the UK come crawling back to them.
posted by Talez at 11:43 AM on October 11, 2016 [20 favorites]
posted by Talez at 11:43 AM on October 11, 2016 [20 favorites]
And P.S. when the UK does come crawling back, they won't be able to fuck up every measure of progress the EU will try to make because they won't have any voting rights whatsoever.
posted by Talez at 11:44 AM on October 11, 2016 [14 favorites]
posted by Talez at 11:44 AM on October 11, 2016 [14 favorites]
It seems as if it's not entirely up to the Tories how the UK exits. That is, the EU has made it clear lately that they're not going to let the UK cherry-pick the benefits and dodge the responsibilities of European integration. So whether a soft exit is even on the table...
posted by praemunire at 11:44 AM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 11:44 AM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
The Brexit seems like an especially appropriate time for Napolean quotes. Cheers!
posted by wormwood23 at 11:44 AM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
The Brexit seems like an especially appropriate time for Napolean quotes. Cheers!
posted by wormwood23 at 11:44 AM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
I feel like Hanlon's Razor has to be discarded when you're dealing with openly malicious people such as the Conservative Party.
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:49 AM on October 11, 2016 [8 favorites]
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:49 AM on October 11, 2016 [8 favorites]
It's 'careening out of control' in much the same way as a car that hasn't left the garage.
Or, you know, in the same way as a car in the garage where the driver, having determined to drive off a cliff somewhere, is sitting at the wheel, revving the engine while trying to get up the nerve to leave.
posted by GeckoDundee at 11:51 AM on October 11, 2016 [10 favorites]
Or, you know, in the same way as a car in the garage where the driver, having determined to drive off a cliff somewhere, is sitting at the wheel, revving the engine while trying to get up the nerve to leave.
posted by GeckoDundee at 11:51 AM on October 11, 2016 [10 favorites]
Imagine if remain had won by tiny margin & the govt went for "hard remain" - Schengen, Euro, multilingual signage. People would go apeshit.posted by EndsOfInvention at 11:55 AM on October 11, 2016 [32 favorites]
- @rhiannonlucyc
I think we should try to hold on to the fact that the process of deciding what the terms of Brexit will be has not even really begun yet. It's 'careening out of control' in much the same way as a car that hasn't left the garage.
No. it's a car that was parked on a hill and some idiot decided to leave the wheels straight and release the handbrake. The pound is heading below the euro. Inflationary pressure from the currency going into the shitter is landing. Nobody is in control. Nobody wants to sacrifice themselves to try and rectify the situation. Everyone in power is effectively hoping what it eventually crashes into isn't some six year old kid crossing the street or a billionaire's Bentley.
posted by Talez at 11:56 AM on October 11, 2016 [9 favorites]
No. it's a car that was parked on a hill and some idiot decided to leave the wheels straight and release the handbrake. The pound is heading below the euro. Inflationary pressure from the currency going into the shitter is landing. Nobody is in control. Nobody wants to sacrifice themselves to try and rectify the situation. Everyone in power is effectively hoping what it eventually crashes into isn't some six year old kid crossing the street or a billionaire's Bentley.
posted by Talez at 11:56 AM on October 11, 2016 [9 favorites]
Oh and to top it all off on the shit sandwich that is Brexit, any gains in competitiveness due to the currency falling through the floor are going to be wiped out by tariffs almost automatically imposed under WTO rules.
posted by Talez at 12:00 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Talez at 12:00 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
This is a painful interview between the LBC radio host, James O'Brien, and a caller who voted to leave the EU. When asked to name a single law that he had a problem with, the caller is utterly incapable of giving an example and has no good argument for his position.
posted by knapah at 12:06 PM on October 11, 2016 [28 favorites]
posted by knapah at 12:06 PM on October 11, 2016 [28 favorites]
Everyone in power is effectively hoping what it eventually crashes into isn't some six year old kid crossing the street or a billionaire's Bentley.
Though given the switchman's choice, surely the Tory Party would choose to save the Bentley?
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:14 PM on October 11, 2016 [8 favorites]
Though given the switchman's choice, surely the Tory Party would choose to save the Bentley?
posted by Joey Michaels at 12:14 PM on October 11, 2016 [8 favorites]
The pound is heading below the euro.
I have a feeling it'll reach parity with the dollar before the screaming is over.
posted by tclark at 12:15 PM on October 11, 2016 [3 favorites]
I have a feeling it'll reach parity with the dollar before the screaming is over.
posted by tclark at 12:15 PM on October 11, 2016 [3 favorites]
When asked to name a single law that he had a problem with, the caller is utterly incapable of giving an example and has no good argument for his position.
This is going to sound a little snarkier than I mean it to be: in his head his argument probably goes "THEM!!! GOD DAMN THEM! THEY'RE AT FAULT FOR THIS!" and it's very internally convincing but that doesn't fly that well out loud, especially since he probably doesn't have an actual concrete answer for the questions "Who are 'they'?" and "What is the 'this' that 'they' are at fault for?"
Basically, my impression is that a lot of people on the ground's Leave votes were motivated by emotion rather than logic. They FELT something was wrong, and they FELT like taking action against it was a good idea, despite the fact that they didn't exactly know what it was in the first place. We could do a lot better by our people and our democratic systems if we could just get everyone to understand that making decisions based on emotion (positive, negative, or otherwise) is, at best, rolling the dice.
posted by IAmUnaware at 12:16 PM on October 11, 2016 [5 favorites]
This is going to sound a little snarkier than I mean it to be: in his head his argument probably goes "THEM!!! GOD DAMN THEM! THEY'RE AT FAULT FOR THIS!" and it's very internally convincing but that doesn't fly that well out loud, especially since he probably doesn't have an actual concrete answer for the questions "Who are 'they'?" and "What is the 'this' that 'they' are at fault for?"
Basically, my impression is that a lot of people on the ground's Leave votes were motivated by emotion rather than logic. They FELT something was wrong, and they FELT like taking action against it was a good idea, despite the fact that they didn't exactly know what it was in the first place. We could do a lot better by our people and our democratic systems if we could just get everyone to understand that making decisions based on emotion (positive, negative, or otherwise) is, at best, rolling the dice.
posted by IAmUnaware at 12:16 PM on October 11, 2016 [5 favorites]
For anyone that hasn't seen it yet and has a few pounds to spare, there is a crowd-funded legal challenge to the government's decision that Brexit can be invoked without consulting parliament. Currently close to it's £150K target.
posted by crocomancer at 12:19 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by crocomancer at 12:19 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
The only person I know who voted Leave did so to "stick it to the Tories". She has gone very quiet recently.
Though given the switchman's choice, surely the Tory Party would choose to save the Bentley?
You would though have to dedicate some time to explaining the concept of manual labour to them.
posted by Vortisaur at 12:20 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
Though given the switchman's choice, surely the Tory Party would choose to save the Bentley?
You would though have to dedicate some time to explaining the concept of manual labour to them.
posted by Vortisaur at 12:20 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
The Guardian Politics Weekly podcast went to the Conservative fall conference and interviewed several pro-Brexiters. They are an odd bunch, and seem to be the very definition of "Little England." Theresa Villiers downplayed any and all negatives associated with Brexit, saying "oh there may be a few issues we will have to manage, but no big deal."
The group that's in charge now reminds me of the Brit ex-pat/transplants I knew when I was growing up in Canada in the 70's and 80's (at the time Brits were the largest group of immigrants).
Big, beefy (or doughy), and loud. Unimaginative small-business owners (travel agencies, restaurants, barber shops). Lacking self-awareness. Very white.
posted by My Dad at 12:24 PM on October 11, 2016 [7 favorites]
The group that's in charge now reminds me of the Brit ex-pat/transplants I knew when I was growing up in Canada in the 70's and 80's (at the time Brits were the largest group of immigrants).
Big, beefy (or doughy), and loud. Unimaginative small-business owners (travel agencies, restaurants, barber shops). Lacking self-awareness. Very white.
posted by My Dad at 12:24 PM on October 11, 2016 [7 favorites]
Could someone call a moratorium on the car analogies?
posted by indubitable at 12:27 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by indubitable at 12:27 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
tariffs almost automatically imposed under WTO rules
Which ones? I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious.
Free trade is a mutual benefit, so it's built in that both sides suffer if it's withdrawn. Hence, it's a stupid thing to do and both sides, if they were rational, would look to maintain as much freedom as possible. Unfortunately rationality is not guaranteed. The EU might seek to 'punish' the UK to deter others, encouraged by talk about how it holds all the cards and its own settled sense of omnipotence. The UK, having convinced itself that the 'Single Market' has been sort of hyped, might recklessly decide to ignore it.
But we don't know. We didn't know what we were voting on and we don't know what we're going to get, at all.
posted by Segundus at 12:31 PM on October 11, 2016
Which ones? I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious.
Free trade is a mutual benefit, so it's built in that both sides suffer if it's withdrawn. Hence, it's a stupid thing to do and both sides, if they were rational, would look to maintain as much freedom as possible. Unfortunately rationality is not guaranteed. The EU might seek to 'punish' the UK to deter others, encouraged by talk about how it holds all the cards and its own settled sense of omnipotence. The UK, having convinced itself that the 'Single Market' has been sort of hyped, might recklessly decide to ignore it.
But we don't know. We didn't know what we were voting on and we don't know what we're going to get, at all.
posted by Segundus at 12:31 PM on October 11, 2016
Could someone call a moratorium on the car analogies?
It's as if someone took the handbrake off the Royal Yacht Britannia....
posted by Catseye at 12:32 PM on October 11, 2016 [13 favorites]
It's as if someone took the handbrake off the Royal Yacht Britannia....
posted by Catseye at 12:32 PM on October 11, 2016 [13 favorites]
Much as WWII had, Brexit will have effects than span generations.
posted by tommasz at 12:33 PM on October 11, 2016
posted by tommasz at 12:33 PM on October 11, 2016
Britain to push post-Brexit UK immigration controls back to Irish border
Hard Brexit to cost 2,000 Goldman jobs - "Wall Street giant to shift third of City staff if single market access is lost"
On Brexit: Britain can’t and shouldn’t have it both ways
posted by the man of twists and turns at 12:36 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
Hard Brexit to cost 2,000 Goldman jobs - "Wall Street giant to shift third of City staff if single market access is lost"
On Brexit: Britain can’t and shouldn’t have it both ways
posted by the man of twists and turns at 12:36 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
I've spoken to a few Leave voters and they inevitably fall into two categories:
1. The people in power (i.e. Cameron) seemed to want this. And the people in power are horrible. So, voting against it.
This group was made up of a lot of people I think are good people but are unfortunately, misguided/misinformed on what is a complex issue. I think many are still unsure what they voted for.
2. Too many immigrants/benefit scroungers/etc. Some of this group directly admitted that was their reason. But another segment did some hand-waving about (Fat-cats in Brussels/Taking Control) but if you grilled them it really came down to xenophobia.
posted by vacapinta at 12:42 PM on October 11, 2016
1. The people in power (i.e. Cameron) seemed to want this. And the people in power are horrible. So, voting against it.
This group was made up of a lot of people I think are good people but are unfortunately, misguided/misinformed on what is a complex issue. I think many are still unsure what they voted for.
2. Too many immigrants/benefit scroungers/etc. Some of this group directly admitted that was their reason. But another segment did some hand-waving about (Fat-cats in Brussels/Taking Control) but if you grilled them it really came down to xenophobia.
posted by vacapinta at 12:42 PM on October 11, 2016
Free trade is a mutual benefit, so it's built in that both sides suffer if it's withdrawn. Hence, it's a stupid thing to do and both sides, if they were rational, would look to maintain as much freedom as possible. Unfortunately rationality is not guaranteed. The EU might seek to 'punish' the UK to deter others, encouraged by talk about how it holds all the cards and its own settled sense of omnipotence. The UK, having convinced itself that the 'Single Market' has been sort of hyped, might recklessly decide to ignore it.
All of the free trade treaties were made with the EU common market and with the UK being part of the single common market. Splitting off from the EU will require the UK to negotiate free trade treaties with all of the previous countries that the EU has made deals with and also the EU itself which isn't going to be in any mood to go easy on the UK.
Without the benefit of those treaties a lot of countries are going to impose tariffs on the UK until a free trade deal is brokered because a lot of those deals say x many tons are coming in from the EU quota free which aren't easily divorced from the UK. The UK will be able to begin negotiations as soon as Article 50 is triggered except for the EU which will quite possibly refuse to negotiate a free trade deal until the divorce is complete (EU rules are that the EU can't negotiate with its own member states because the idea is quite mad).
This is why soft brexit is a myth. Every part of soft brexit involves the EU doing the UK a favor and bending a lot of the rules in the interests of practicality. You don't really get that kind of courtesy when you leave with your middle finger raised.
posted by Talez at 12:44 PM on October 11, 2016 [12 favorites]
All of the free trade treaties were made with the EU common market and with the UK being part of the single common market. Splitting off from the EU will require the UK to negotiate free trade treaties with all of the previous countries that the EU has made deals with and also the EU itself which isn't going to be in any mood to go easy on the UK.
Without the benefit of those treaties a lot of countries are going to impose tariffs on the UK until a free trade deal is brokered because a lot of those deals say x many tons are coming in from the EU quota free which aren't easily divorced from the UK. The UK will be able to begin negotiations as soon as Article 50 is triggered except for the EU which will quite possibly refuse to negotiate a free trade deal until the divorce is complete (EU rules are that the EU can't negotiate with its own member states because the idea is quite mad).
This is why soft brexit is a myth. Every part of soft brexit involves the EU doing the UK a favor and bending a lot of the rules in the interests of practicality. You don't really get that kind of courtesy when you leave with your middle finger raised.
posted by Talez at 12:44 PM on October 11, 2016 [12 favorites]
Knapah I am forever in your debt for opening my world up to O'Brien.
His show is now my new favorite thing.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 12:44 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
His show is now my new favorite thing.
posted by Senor Cardgage at 12:44 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
That James O'Brian interview is damning. Now we need some journalists to hold politicians to the same fire.
posted by dazed_one at 12:49 PM on October 11, 2016
posted by dazed_one at 12:49 PM on October 11, 2016
To me it looks like political opportunism. May finds herself unexpectedly the PM, running a party full of people she can't trust but with a certain amount of control for the present since none of them will stick their head above the parapet. She feels stuck with some kind of Brexit but what are the actual options? Choosing not to Brexit in some way recognisable to the country will basically mean game over for her. Are there any feasible soft brexits? Most of the lines that helped to convince some voters of the possibility have never looked convincing and with the port-referendum climate don't look any better: The Norwegian model is basically pay the same money but don't get a vote and keep free movement. The Swiss model isn't realistic since we're not Switzerland. The EU doesn't look like it will allow restrictions on free movement which means no limits on immigration, which must look like a pretty difficult sell at home from the May perspective. The only option which will allow her to stop immigration is pulling out all together. Are there any other options that allow her to stay in power?
There is a massive problem here that people voted on a single line: leave the EU. This gives a mandate for whatever way the debate goes after. Was it about immigration? Then let's act on that. Was it about sovereignty? More of that! Was it about oppressive human rights legislation? Let's get rid of that. It already means whatever it can be sold to mean.
posted by biffa at 1:00 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
There is a massive problem here that people voted on a single line: leave the EU. This gives a mandate for whatever way the debate goes after. Was it about immigration? Then let's act on that. Was it about sovereignty? More of that! Was it about oppressive human rights legislation? Let's get rid of that. It already means whatever it can be sold to mean.
posted by biffa at 1:00 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
That the Tories would inevitably drift towards a 'hard' exit from the EU is something I've been saying to people for months now.
As Rostowski implies, it's the only way that they can maintain the illusion of control. They know that the odds of being able to get the deal they want from the EU member states is laughably small, which leaves control of immigration as the sole outcome they can hope to deliver with any degree of likelihood. By completely abandoning the single market, they'll be magically free to introduce whatever anti-immigrant legislation they like and, hey presto! they escape the humiliation that will inevitably follow any attempt to live up to their pre- and post-referendum promises. They don't really care what it does to the British economy; it doesn't matter if xenophobia takes hold; what matters is that the Tories appear to have a plan that they can deliver. That was never going to be the case if they attempted to negotiate a 'soft' option. They've sacrificed our economic security as a face-saving exercise.
(on preview, I agree with biffa)
I wonder if the Conservatives are going to completely fall apart over this within the next year or two. They just seem so fragile at the moment. I get the feeling now that the only thing keeping them viable is the lack of any kind of organised opposition.
posted by pipeski at 1:01 PM on October 11, 2016 [12 favorites]
As Rostowski implies, it's the only way that they can maintain the illusion of control. They know that the odds of being able to get the deal they want from the EU member states is laughably small, which leaves control of immigration as the sole outcome they can hope to deliver with any degree of likelihood. By completely abandoning the single market, they'll be magically free to introduce whatever anti-immigrant legislation they like and, hey presto! they escape the humiliation that will inevitably follow any attempt to live up to their pre- and post-referendum promises. They don't really care what it does to the British economy; it doesn't matter if xenophobia takes hold; what matters is that the Tories appear to have a plan that they can deliver. That was never going to be the case if they attempted to negotiate a 'soft' option. They've sacrificed our economic security as a face-saving exercise.
(on preview, I agree with biffa)
I wonder if the Conservatives are going to completely fall apart over this within the next year or two. They just seem so fragile at the moment. I get the feeling now that the only thing keeping them viable is the lack of any kind of organised opposition.
posted by pipeski at 1:01 PM on October 11, 2016 [12 favorites]
It's like the UK looked at NAFTA and said "ooh, we'd like to be like Cuba in that arrangement!"
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 1:11 PM on October 11, 2016 [20 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 1:11 PM on October 11, 2016 [20 favorites]
Charlie Stross, MeFi's own!, has some thoughts on the issue. Basically he thinks the UK really fucked itself sideways, one thing he discusses that I didn't see here is the fact that the UK imports around 40% of its food, and that the Brexit means calorie prices will be going up.
I also doubt that Brussels will allow any exit but hard, both as deterrence for any other countries thinking of leaving and as a result of all the ill will the UK built up with its special in but not really but getting all the benefits deal it had prior to Brexit.
I'm also stunned that over half of Britons think the UK will retain access to the single market, especially with restrictions on freedom of movement. I mean I suppose in a really limited, restricted, sort of way maybe. But it won't be access like they used to have. Is that just wishful thinking I wonder?
posted by sotonohito at 1:58 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
I also doubt that Brussels will allow any exit but hard, both as deterrence for any other countries thinking of leaving and as a result of all the ill will the UK built up with its special in but not really but getting all the benefits deal it had prior to Brexit.
I'm also stunned that over half of Britons think the UK will retain access to the single market, especially with restrictions on freedom of movement. I mean I suppose in a really limited, restricted, sort of way maybe. But it won't be access like they used to have. Is that just wishful thinking I wonder?
posted by sotonohito at 1:58 PM on October 11, 2016 [4 favorites]
Which ones? I'm not saying you're wrong, just curious.
Sorry it took so long to answer this one.
It depends on the country. Usually the country will have a default rate of tariff for the products it imports which follow WTO rules. The EU (40% of the UK's exports, destination 80% of UK produced cars) for instance has the Common Customs Tariff which will average out at about 4.8%. Cars for instance are taxed 6% just coming into the EU.
Some countries are going to have higher tariffs, some like the US will probably rush to get a FTA as quick as possible. But in the mean time it's not going to be pretty for UK industry.
posted by Talez at 2:11 PM on October 11, 2016
Sorry it took so long to answer this one.
It depends on the country. Usually the country will have a default rate of tariff for the products it imports which follow WTO rules. The EU (40% of the UK's exports, destination 80% of UK produced cars) for instance has the Common Customs Tariff which will average out at about 4.8%. Cars for instance are taxed 6% just coming into the EU.
Some countries are going to have higher tariffs, some like the US will probably rush to get a FTA as quick as possible. But in the mean time it's not going to be pretty for UK industry.
posted by Talez at 2:11 PM on October 11, 2016
The River Ivel : Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
In this situation, stupidity is not an adequate explanation. Several of the Cabinet, including Theresa May, have demonstrated over the years that they are not daft enough to think that isolationism and "sending them back" is a viable means by which to improve an economy*. Rather, they see the shit that they've landed in and instead of trying to figure a way out of it, they decided to follow UKIP and start "othering" to shift the blame. It's vile cynicism of the worst order to stir up racial hatred and make an entire country worse off purely to further your political ends.
*Others, like Liam Fox, are vile in a different way. They seem to think that if they say "Queen Victoria" three times in front of a mirror at midnight, they will get the Empire back, complete with slaves and tributes of gold.
posted by Jakey at 2:15 PM on October 11, 2016 [15 favorites]
In this situation, stupidity is not an adequate explanation. Several of the Cabinet, including Theresa May, have demonstrated over the years that they are not daft enough to think that isolationism and "sending them back" is a viable means by which to improve an economy*. Rather, they see the shit that they've landed in and instead of trying to figure a way out of it, they decided to follow UKIP and start "othering" to shift the blame. It's vile cynicism of the worst order to stir up racial hatred and make an entire country worse off purely to further your political ends.
*Others, like Liam Fox, are vile in a different way. They seem to think that if they say "Queen Victoria" three times in front of a mirror at midnight, they will get the Empire back, complete with slaves and tributes of gold.
posted by Jakey at 2:15 PM on October 11, 2016 [15 favorites]
Jakey: in my more optimistic moments I'm cautiously hopeful that May is enough of a realist that she's playing a long game: allowing Sterling to tank, giving Fox, Johnson et al enough rope to hang themselves high, and when it's time to pull the trigger on Article 50 in March sterling will be down so far that it's glaringly obvious to all that Brexit is going to destroy the economy: with the price of food beginning to soar and inflation taking off, she can then cancel it and most people will breath a sigh of relief.
After all, there are four or five months to go and at the current speed it's sinking, Sterling will hit dollar parity before then. And as the man said, "Sterling is now the official opposition".
However: I am aware that I am prone to fits of irrational optimism ...
posted by cstross at 2:31 PM on October 11, 2016 [14 favorites]
After all, there are four or five months to go and at the current speed it's sinking, Sterling will hit dollar parity before then. And as the man said, "Sterling is now the official opposition".
However: I am aware that I am prone to fits of irrational optimism ...
posted by cstross at 2:31 PM on October 11, 2016 [14 favorites]
Just checked my Twitter, and this is all over it: #Newsnight has learned UK govt may be prepared to continue paying billions to Europe to retain access to markets and other rights
(the guy in the comments that rants about how this is blackmail since other countries outside the union can export to the EU without paying billions is pretty funny)
posted by effbot at 3:18 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
(the guy in the comments that rants about how this is blackmail since other countries outside the union can export to the EU without paying billions is pretty funny)
posted by effbot at 3:18 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
I'd love to believe that Theresa May is playing a cunning long game, but as David Allen Green pointed out, it's not super likely if her past is anything to go by.
posted by doop at 4:01 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by doop at 4:01 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
(Before I comment, I just want to say I am not a tory, I am left leaning but labour are fucked, as are the lib dems.)
1) The tories are not going to fall apart - they are ahead in the polls and labour are going all out to destroy themselves, so they know they just need to stick together and they can win several more elections. Labour are truly fucked, the split between the Blairite right-wingers and the Corbynistas has wrecked (rekked lol) the party. And now Bliar says he is coming back! Holy shit, this is all we need, more Third Way bullshit. May knows this, as do the people in her party, so the idea that the tory infighting will destroy them must also known to them.
2) In the Brexit threads, people said (can't remember exact quote and mega-threads kill mu old laptop, so I don't want to go looking) "it's okay to support FTSE100 companies as they create jobs" so seeing as the FTSE is up this must be making all those who favourited the comment happy, right? I mean, allegedly progressive left leaning liberals are supportive of FTSE100 companies, the same companies who pay min wage and use zero hours contracts while the pay disparity between the executives and the workers is at its highest level since, well, sometime pre-war.
3) As I commented before, there are a whole bunch of problems in the UK, and in or out these problems are not getting solved, no-one has a solution, not here, not anywhere. The way it is presented on here, being in the EU has created this Elysian paradise, and it is just not true. A lot of people voted for Brexit because, in the places they live, they had nothing to lose, as everything is so shit anyway.
4) There is a thread a few down from this about how the rich don't pay tax, and I know you all love to mock the 350 million figure as wrong - turns out it's only 250 million - so you are all happy that poor people in the UK should pay this, seeing as the rich fucking won't?
On a lighter note, I saw a hat the other day and misread it (it was in a car in the dark) and it made me think of this stuff. I was going to make a "Confused by Brexit? not sure if we should be in or out? This is the hat for you" and then a link, as I thought it said BRXIN, but I saw they guy wearing it later and it actually said BRXTN (Brixton, for any confused Americans.)
posted by marienbad at 4:12 PM on October 11, 2016 [3 favorites]
1) The tories are not going to fall apart - they are ahead in the polls and labour are going all out to destroy themselves, so they know they just need to stick together and they can win several more elections. Labour are truly fucked, the split between the Blairite right-wingers and the Corbynistas has wrecked (rekked lol) the party. And now Bliar says he is coming back! Holy shit, this is all we need, more Third Way bullshit. May knows this, as do the people in her party, so the idea that the tory infighting will destroy them must also known to them.
2) In the Brexit threads, people said (can't remember exact quote and mega-threads kill mu old laptop, so I don't want to go looking) "it's okay to support FTSE100 companies as they create jobs" so seeing as the FTSE is up this must be making all those who favourited the comment happy, right? I mean, allegedly progressive left leaning liberals are supportive of FTSE100 companies, the same companies who pay min wage and use zero hours contracts while the pay disparity between the executives and the workers is at its highest level since, well, sometime pre-war.
3) As I commented before, there are a whole bunch of problems in the UK, and in or out these problems are not getting solved, no-one has a solution, not here, not anywhere. The way it is presented on here, being in the EU has created this Elysian paradise, and it is just not true. A lot of people voted for Brexit because, in the places they live, they had nothing to lose, as everything is so shit anyway.
4) There is a thread a few down from this about how the rich don't pay tax, and I know you all love to mock the 350 million figure as wrong - turns out it's only 250 million - so you are all happy that poor people in the UK should pay this, seeing as the rich fucking won't?
On a lighter note, I saw a hat the other day and misread it (it was in a car in the dark) and it made me think of this stuff. I was going to make a "Confused by Brexit? not sure if we should be in or out? This is the hat for you" and then a link, as I thought it said BRXIN, but I saw they guy wearing it later and it actually said BRXTN (Brixton, for any confused Americans.)
posted by marienbad at 4:12 PM on October 11, 2016 [3 favorites]
Also see the Who Runs the EU FPP I made recently to see who really runs it.
posted by marienbad at 4:13 PM on October 11, 2016
posted by marienbad at 4:13 PM on October 11, 2016
Now that it is entirely evident that Brexit was all about immigration, where are people in the UK going to draw the line?
Britain has always been a nation of immigrants, as much as they are loath to admit it.
So if you voted for Brexit, what are you going to do now? Give your house to a Welsh person? Tell someone speaking Scots Gaelic to fuck off back to the Dál Riata?
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:27 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
Britain has always been a nation of immigrants, as much as they are loath to admit it.
So if you voted for Brexit, what are you going to do now? Give your house to a Welsh person? Tell someone speaking Scots Gaelic to fuck off back to the Dál Riata?
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:27 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
There are certainly a whole bunch of problems in the UK, a lot of people are in a shit situation, and the EU is certainly no Elysian paradise.
How will leaving the EU improve this, especially for the poor? Do you expect the rich to pay a larger proportion of the tax take in Liam Fox's buccaneering free trade paradise?
posted by doop at 4:29 PM on October 11, 2016 [3 favorites]
How will leaving the EU improve this, especially for the poor? Do you expect the rich to pay a larger proportion of the tax take in Liam Fox's buccaneering free trade paradise?
posted by doop at 4:29 PM on October 11, 2016 [3 favorites]
It's like British people in 350 AD voting for 450 AD.
Within a generation, trade will have collapsed, the currency will be worthless, no-one will know how to put up drywall or fix a road, Hadrian's wall will be a ruin, and there won't be a Roman legionnaire to be found anywhere!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:46 PM on October 11, 2016 [8 favorites]
Within a generation, trade will have collapsed, the currency will be worthless, no-one will know how to put up drywall or fix a road, Hadrian's wall will be a ruin, and there won't be a Roman legionnaire to be found anywhere!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:46 PM on October 11, 2016 [8 favorites]
one thing he discusses that I didn't see here is the fact that the UK imports around 40% of its food, and that the Brexit means calorie prices will be going up.
But the inter-war and post-war austerities were fun! People learned to make do! We totally didn't malnourish an entire generation of children!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:59 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
But the inter-war and post-war austerities were fun! People learned to make do! We totally didn't malnourish an entire generation of children!
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:59 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
There is a thread a few down from this about how the rich don't pay tax, and I know you all love to mock the 350 million figure as wrong - turns out it's only 250 million - so you are all happy that poor people in the UK should pay this, seeing as the rich fucking won't?
I don't know- per the comment above, will not being part of the EU improve the willingness of an elite capitalist class with increasingly mobile forms of capital to actually pay more tax? And in any situation - hard Brexit, soft Brexit, no Brexit - how about "fucking make them" as a solution?
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 5:08 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
I don't know- per the comment above, will not being part of the EU improve the willingness of an elite capitalist class with increasingly mobile forms of capital to actually pay more tax? And in any situation - hard Brexit, soft Brexit, no Brexit - how about "fucking make them" as a solution?
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 5:08 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
A majority of UK voters oppose hard Brexit, and yet the government seems to be pursuing it.
What a weird article. It's entirely up to the EU whether the Brexit is hard or soft.
Yes, isn’t it so striking, how so many still don’t seem to get it at all there! Still this idea that the UK government can have any choice in the matter now! I mean that attitude alone tells you everything...
posted by bitteschoen at 7:46 PM on October 11, 2016
What a weird article. It's entirely up to the EU whether the Brexit is hard or soft.
Yes, isn’t it so striking, how so many still don’t seem to get it at all there! Still this idea that the UK government can have any choice in the matter now! I mean that attitude alone tells you everything...
posted by bitteschoen at 7:46 PM on October 11, 2016
It's not that shocking. People sold themselves on the idea of Brexit as a form of making their own choices for government, so they're convinced that their choices are the only ones that matter here.
posted by Archelaus at 9:03 PM on October 11, 2016
posted by Archelaus at 9:03 PM on October 11, 2016
To be fair, the fact that the UK can apparently stay on the pot indefinitely despite the rest of the EU and indeed the world telling it to hurry up and shit is pretty easy to misinterpret as "the UK will continue to control exactly how it shares the pot with others" if you're not very well informed about how the EU works (and, well...)
posted by No-sword at 11:03 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by No-sword at 11:03 PM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]
one thing he discusses that I didn't see here is the fact that the UK imports around 40% of its food, and that the Brexit means calorie prices will be going up.
Two days after the referendum, the Guardian told us 'food prices are likely to go up as a short-term consequence of Britain’s voting to leave the EU' (not Brexit, but 'voting to leave'). In fact the average cost of groceries fell again in September, and are 3% cheaper than this time last year. Petrol - now predicted to rise 6p - is also over 30p a litre cheaper than two years ago, and we all lived through that too.
posted by Coda Tronca at 11:54 PM on October 11, 2016
Two days after the referendum, the Guardian told us 'food prices are likely to go up as a short-term consequence of Britain’s voting to leave the EU' (not Brexit, but 'voting to leave'). In fact the average cost of groceries fell again in September, and are 3% cheaper than this time last year. Petrol - now predicted to rise 6p - is also over 30p a litre cheaper than two years ago, and we all lived through that too.
posted by Coda Tronca at 11:54 PM on October 11, 2016
It's almost as if stats can be cherry picked to say anything. Lord knows that Leave weren't shy of outlandish claims.
posted by Dysk at 11:58 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 11:58 PM on October 11, 2016 [2 favorites]
Coda Tronca: "In fact the average cost of groceries fell again in September, and are 3% cheaper than this time last year."The Grocer sez:
- 22 Aug 2016 City snapshot: Supermarket deflation eases again — The deflation that has gripped grocery since 2014 has eased for the second consecutive month after the Brexit vote.
- 09 Sep 2016 Deflation edges up as three of big four sharpen prices — Food price inflation expected in the wake of the UK’s decision to leave the EU has yet to filter through to the supermarket shelves, according to the latest Grocer Price Index. The latest skirmishes in the supermarket price war have ensured deflation remains in the market.
- 23 Sep 2016 Raging deflation leads to OC&C 150 sales slump — The supermarket price war and the slump in commodity prices have resulted in sales falling.
- 07 Oct 2016 City snapshot: Prices rising in ambient grocery Subscription — Food prices are finally heading higher in the ambient goods category after two years of deflation in the market, the latest Grocer Price Index has found.
posted by brokkr at 12:09 AM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
Petrol - now predicted to rise 6p - is also over 30p a litre cheaper than two years ago, and we all lived through that too.
Also, a lot of people didn't make it through that, much as a lot of people have been dying due to the government's policies for a few years now. The whole 'welfare reform and not being able to afford basic essentials is leading to unnecessary and preventable deaths and suicides' thing that disability rights activists in particular have been getting into even mainstream news coverage, that's real. I can't imagine I'm the only person here who knew someone who didn't make it through all the tough patches of the last few years. Repeating them isn't simply a matter of tightening our belts a little, it's a matter of losing people.
posted by Dysk at 12:43 AM on October 12, 2016 [11 favorites]
Also, a lot of people didn't make it through that, much as a lot of people have been dying due to the government's policies for a few years now. The whole 'welfare reform and not being able to afford basic essentials is leading to unnecessary and preventable deaths and suicides' thing that disability rights activists in particular have been getting into even mainstream news coverage, that's real. I can't imagine I'm the only person here who knew someone who didn't make it through all the tough patches of the last few years. Repeating them isn't simply a matter of tightening our belts a little, it's a matter of losing people.
posted by Dysk at 12:43 AM on October 12, 2016 [11 favorites]
So now Brexit will be debated in parliament. Labour appears to have actually achieved something last night:
Whether May and her team will actually front with answers to the 170 questions, or submit to a formal vote, who knows?
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:25 AM on October 12, 2016 [2 favorites]
Theresa May has accepted the need to have a “full and transparent” parliamentary debate before triggering Brexit, as Labour demanded answers to 170 questions about leaving the EU.Rowena Mason and Heather Stewart, Theresa May agrees to 'full and transparent' Brexit debate, The Guardian (12 October 2016).
In a last-minute concession late on Tuesday night, the government has accepted a Labour motion calling for MPs to have more say over the strategy for leaving the EU, although it was slightly amended and does not specify that there will be a formal vote.
Whether May and her team will actually front with answers to the 170 questions, or submit to a formal vote, who knows?
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:25 AM on October 12, 2016 [2 favorites]
Not very convinced by this article. The government in power is blamed for whatever happens, even global economic events, so causing big economic problems to avoid blame for failed negotiations doesn't sound very workable.
On the hardest of hard brexit fringes, the idea being floated is not to go through the Article 50 process at all, but simply withdraw immediately from the treaties under the Vienna convention, and leave it to the EU to decide whether to start levying tariffs, putting in retaliatory tariffs if they do. If Theresa May is really that desperate to avoid negotiations, that would be her logical course. Instead she's choosing to go through the official negotiation process.
I don't know what is going on inside Cabinet, but there are several explanations.
- Leaving the single market is just an initial negotiation stance, maybe even a Nixonesque "Madman strategy"
- Theresa May seriously believes she can get single market membership and immigration controls
- Theresa May thinks she can cut immigration numbers by encouraging a climate of hostility, while still technically accepting the theory of free movement
- It's complete chaos and the cabinet have wildly incompatible ideas about strategy
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:58 AM on October 12, 2016 [8 favorites]
I don't know what is going on inside Cabinet, but there are several explanations.
You forgot the option which is Theresa May fully intending to pull out of the common market as a means to get immigration control, and then try and get all the blame for her being 'forced' into leaving the EEA on the evil eurocrats - after all, she'd been trying for common market AND closing the borders, evil Merkel wouldn't have it.
posted by Dysk at 2:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
You forgot the option which is Theresa May fully intending to pull out of the common market as a means to get immigration control, and then try and get all the blame for her being 'forced' into leaving the EEA on the evil eurocrats - after all, she'd been trying for common market AND closing the borders, evil Merkel wouldn't have it.
posted by Dysk at 2:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Whether May and her team will actually front with answers to the 170 questions, or submit to a formal vote, who knows?
High Court challenges on the government invoking Article 50 without a full parliamentary vote start tomorrow, sooooooo... we'll see? (Mischon de Reya's Q and A on this for the curious.)
posted by Catseye at 2:52 AM on October 12, 2016
High Court challenges on the government invoking Article 50 without a full parliamentary vote start tomorrow, sooooooo... we'll see? (Mischon de Reya's Q and A on this for the curious.)
posted by Catseye at 2:52 AM on October 12, 2016
But the same people who are in favour of a hard Brexit are those who want to privatise everything and give it all up to our overseas corporate masters. The crisis they induce via Brexit is the excuse they will use to justify it. The fact that it will make everything infinitely worse and probably destabilise the country hasn't penetrated their thick skulls, most likely because of the hallucinations of the enormous commercial possibilities should they succeed. Which is also what prevents them from seeing the colossal irony in their using the pretext of bringing back sovereignty from Europe at great cost in order to hand it over for a pittance to the transnational corporations.
posted by Grangousier at 4:07 AM on October 12, 2016 [6 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 4:07 AM on October 12, 2016 [6 favorites]
Interesting theory from Paul Krugman about the currency: Notes on Brexit and the Pound.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 4:33 AM on October 12, 2016
posted by TheophileEscargot at 4:33 AM on October 12, 2016
Today's UK front pages include niceties like "TIME TO SILENCE EU EXIT WHINGERS" (the "opinion piece" calls for such "snake-like treachery to be punished" by throwing all opponents in prison) and "DAMN THE UNPATRIOTIC BREMOANERS AND THEIR PLOT TO SUBVERT THE WILL OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE".
I suspect they're doing most of the recruiting in their comment fields these days.
posted by effbot at 4:40 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
I suspect they're doing most of the recruiting in their comment fields these days.
posted by effbot at 4:40 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Another alternative view in the Independent:
The nexus between an ever larger financial sector and a strong pound served a select few who live in London and its neighbourhood. The only people who truly lose from the pound’s depreciation are those who borrowed short-term dollars to invest in long-term property assets.
This “elite” group continues to hold the microphones of policymaking and its words reverberate through the financial press. All these years, however, the strong pound hurt job creation and investment in productivity growth. And those who have long been hurt don’t live in London and don’t hold the microphones.
(I don't necessarily agree, FWIW, since it seems to me you can use bourgeois economics to predict anything you want, but that's another discussion).
posted by Coda Tronca at 4:59 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
The nexus between an ever larger financial sector and a strong pound served a select few who live in London and its neighbourhood. The only people who truly lose from the pound’s depreciation are those who borrowed short-term dollars to invest in long-term property assets.
This “elite” group continues to hold the microphones of policymaking and its words reverberate through the financial press. All these years, however, the strong pound hurt job creation and investment in productivity growth. And those who have long been hurt don’t live in London and don’t hold the microphones.
(I don't necessarily agree, FWIW, since it seems to me you can use bourgeois economics to predict anything you want, but that's another discussion).
posted by Coda Tronca at 4:59 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
"DAMN THE UNPATRIOTIC BREMOANERS AND THEIR PLOT TO SUBVERT THE WILL OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE".
" Long Live the Glorious Patriotic Dictatorship for the Liberation of the 17,410,742!"
"Crush the Rapacious Unpatriotic Enemies of Freedom! All 16,141,241 of Them!"
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:00 AM on October 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
" Long Live the Glorious Patriotic Dictatorship for the Liberation of the 17,410,742!"
"Crush the Rapacious Unpatriotic Enemies of Freedom! All 16,141,241 of Them!"
posted by Mister Bijou at 5:00 AM on October 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
Daily Hate now echoing the voice of Jo Cox's murderer. One murder won't satisfy Paul Dacre, I assume.
posted by the quidnunc kid at 6:00 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by the quidnunc kid at 6:00 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
I don't buy the faux-left populism of Mody's Independent opinion piece at all. This wasn't a vote against the finance sector; rather, it was one led by and underwritten by a splinter-group within the finance sector. Essentially, it's a turf war between members of the City who are comfortable with the current arrangements, and a right-wing fringe of libertarian extremists who would rather the sector operated with even fewer controls than it has now. Their vision is of the country as a giant off-shore tax haven, a New Singapore or New Abu Dhabi, with a corresponding withering of the state to match.
Claims that British business will be able to take advantage of the lower currency and "freedom" offered by Brexit and save us all by expanding manically, meanwhile, look a little shaky when you consider what British business actually is and who runs it.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:34 AM on October 12, 2016 [15 favorites]
Claims that British business will be able to take advantage of the lower currency and "freedom" offered by Brexit and save us all by expanding manically, meanwhile, look a little shaky when you consider what British business actually is and who runs it.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:34 AM on October 12, 2016 [15 favorites]
Mod note: A couple deleted; let's stick to the Brexit discussion.
posted by taz (staff) at 6:53 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by taz (staff) at 6:53 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Surely that would be politically disastrous for a Conservative party that stakes its reputation on its ability to control and grow the economy.
Why should it be, when there are enough commentators willing to repeat "Conservative = Fiscally responsible!" until it becomes a given for the Very Serious crowd regardless of the facts? It works everywhere else in the English-speaking world, after all.
posted by No-sword at 7:08 AM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
Why should it be, when there are enough commentators willing to repeat "Conservative = Fiscally responsible!" until it becomes a given for the Very Serious crowd regardless of the facts? It works everywhere else in the English-speaking world, after all.
posted by No-sword at 7:08 AM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
Meanwhile the Daily Mail stays true to Fascist form
(context)
posted by adamvasco at 7:15 AM on October 12, 2016
(context)
posted by adamvasco at 7:15 AM on October 12, 2016
Today's UK front pages include niceties like "TIME TO SILENCE EU EXIT WHINGERS"(the "opinion piece" calls for such "snake-like treachery to be punished" by throwing all opponents in prison) and "DAMN THE UNPATRIOTIC BREMOANERS AND THEIR PLOT TO SUBVERT THE WILL OF THE BRITISH PEOPLE".
Things that really strike me about this:
- those aren't paraphrases;
- the Daily Express is proudly standing by 'a policy dubbed "The Empire Strikes Back"';
- it is 'deeply unpatriotic' to want Parliament to get a vote on the terms of Brexit, rather than have the Government do whatever it chooses through invoking royal prerogative;
- also Will Young has left Strictly. IS NOTHING SACRED?
It's actually the third of these that I find really striking. I appreciate that Parliamentary sovereignty sounds like a fairly dry and boring subject, and probably isn't as much fun as discussing whether or not to recommission the Royal Yacht Britannia (priorities!), but if you care about sovereignty - and the Daily Mail have certainly been talking a lot about sovereignty - then it's pretty sodding fundamental. Sovereignty lies with Parliament; it cannot be overruled at will by using royal prerogative any time the ruling powers want. We fought an actual Civil War over this. We executed a king over this! I get that you're angry the country has not sufficiently 'moved on' from the events of June 2016, Paul Dacre, but do you really think that relitigating the events of 1649 is really the best way to go?
(Also, if Parliament does not get a vote on invoking of Article 50, there is a technical possibility that the EU could refuse to accept that as valid on the grounds that it isn't in line with the constitutional requirements of the United Kingdom. I'm sure the Mail and its readers would appreciate the irony.)
posted by Catseye at 7:17 AM on October 12, 2016 [12 favorites]
Things that really strike me about this:
- those aren't paraphrases;
- the Daily Express is proudly standing by 'a policy dubbed "The Empire Strikes Back"';
- it is 'deeply unpatriotic' to want Parliament to get a vote on the terms of Brexit, rather than have the Government do whatever it chooses through invoking royal prerogative;
- also Will Young has left Strictly. IS NOTHING SACRED?
It's actually the third of these that I find really striking. I appreciate that Parliamentary sovereignty sounds like a fairly dry and boring subject, and probably isn't as much fun as discussing whether or not to recommission the Royal Yacht Britannia (priorities!), but if you care about sovereignty - and the Daily Mail have certainly been talking a lot about sovereignty - then it's pretty sodding fundamental. Sovereignty lies with Parliament; it cannot be overruled at will by using royal prerogative any time the ruling powers want. We fought an actual Civil War over this. We executed a king over this! I get that you're angry the country has not sufficiently 'moved on' from the events of June 2016, Paul Dacre, but do you really think that relitigating the events of 1649 is really the best way to go?
(Also, if Parliament does not get a vote on invoking of Article 50, there is a technical possibility that the EU could refuse to accept that as valid on the grounds that it isn't in line with the constitutional requirements of the United Kingdom. I'm sure the Mail and its readers would appreciate the irony.)
posted by Catseye at 7:17 AM on October 12, 2016 [12 favorites]
it is 'deeply unpatriotic' to want Parliament to get a vote on the terms of Brexit
A variation of the leave paradox:
A variation of the leave paradox:
The paradox can be characterised as follows:
Leave Supporter: “We want our own Parliament to be sovereign on matters to do with the EU!”
Response: “Like on whether to Leave then?”
Leave Supporter: “No.”posted by effbot at 7:24 AM on October 12, 2016 [14 favorites]
And holy hell, that Express article:
YOU can sum up in one sentence the disgusting opinions of the rabble of MPs who are demanding a Commons vote on Brexit: “The people have spoken, we don’t like what they said because they aren’t as clever as us so let’s ignore them and try to reverse the referendum result.”posted by Catseye at 7:35 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Such snake-like treachery cannot go unpunished. Here’s what I would do with them: clap them in the Tower of London. They want to imprison us against our will in the EU so we should give them 28 days against their will to reflect on the true meaning of democracy.
[...]
As for the enemy within, the nasties of Westminster, they’ve got to understand the unpalatable truth that they can no longer thwart the will of the people. Or the Tower awaits.
And yeah, Pound slumps to 168-year low (against trade-weighted basket). Suspicious timing. I'll blame it on MetaFilter.
posted by effbot at 7:39 AM on October 12, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by effbot at 7:39 AM on October 12, 2016 [2 favorites]
For the record, I think Brexit is an economic and social disaster for my country. I'm also no fan of Theresa May. But blaming the Tories for not going for a soft Brexit, as if it was the obvious way forward, is a misunderstanding of the situation at best.
Remain lost. "Soft" Brexit, leaving us subject to EU directives (in many areas), paying into the EU budget, and retaining Freedom of Movement would be seen, correctly, as defying the will of the people.
The poll mentioned above didn't ask about this triplet of factors, and I'd bet that if it did, you'd get a different result. Its also one poll among many, and there is a reason why he chose a July poll in an October article. This FT article gives a summary of the polls on this topic, and its a mixed picture, with the two most recent polls showing a hard Brexit majority. Cherry picking poll answers to give a majority for your chosen solution to Brexit isn't persuasive.
Brexit is such a bad idea that part of me wishes that parliament would go for a soft deal, argue it technically obeys the referendum, and ride out the backlash. However this is a very dangerous play. The electorate is increasingly willing to vote for extreme candidates, and a soft Brexit will send the right of the country batshit crazy. The left is dead in the water, and the consquences could be very scary. There are worse things than Brexit.
posted by Touchstone at 8:14 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Remain lost. "Soft" Brexit, leaving us subject to EU directives (in many areas), paying into the EU budget, and retaining Freedom of Movement would be seen, correctly, as defying the will of the people.
The poll mentioned above didn't ask about this triplet of factors, and I'd bet that if it did, you'd get a different result. Its also one poll among many, and there is a reason why he chose a July poll in an October article. This FT article gives a summary of the polls on this topic, and its a mixed picture, with the two most recent polls showing a hard Brexit majority. Cherry picking poll answers to give a majority for your chosen solution to Brexit isn't persuasive.
Brexit is such a bad idea that part of me wishes that parliament would go for a soft deal, argue it technically obeys the referendum, and ride out the backlash. However this is a very dangerous play. The electorate is increasingly willing to vote for extreme candidates, and a soft Brexit will send the right of the country batshit crazy. The left is dead in the water, and the consquences could be very scary. There are worse things than Brexit.
posted by Touchstone at 8:14 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
Remain lost. "Soft" Brexit, leaving us subject to EU directives (in many areas), paying into the EU budget, and retaining Freedom of Movement would be seen, correctly, as defying the will of the people.
Its odd because my recollection is a lot of people voting leave seemed to favour some variant on the Norwegian or Swiss or other solution. Presumably they were convinced this was an option and argued from that perspective. Now they might have been silly to think that but that did represent their will. The problem we have now is the entire will of 52% of the people boils down to three words 'leave the EU' with apparently none of the codicils and qualifications that many of those people seemed to support ahead of the vote, including the desire for a much softer Brexit.
posted by biffa at 8:29 AM on October 12, 2016 [5 favorites]
Its odd because my recollection is a lot of people voting leave seemed to favour some variant on the Norwegian or Swiss or other solution. Presumably they were convinced this was an option and argued from that perspective. Now they might have been silly to think that but that did represent their will. The problem we have now is the entire will of 52% of the people boils down to three words 'leave the EU' with apparently none of the codicils and qualifications that many of those people seemed to support ahead of the vote, including the desire for a much softer Brexit.
posted by biffa at 8:29 AM on October 12, 2016 [5 favorites]
Its [sic] odd because my recollection is a lot of people voting leave seemed to favour some variant on the Norwegian or Swiss or other solution
It's odd because my recollection is a lot of people voting "leave" seemed to favour that £350m-a-week for the NHS.
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:37 AM on October 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
It's odd because my recollection is a lot of people voting "leave" seemed to favour that £350m-a-week for the NHS.
posted by Mister Bijou at 8:37 AM on October 12, 2016 [4 favorites]
There are worse things than Brexit.
For those of us who are non-British EU citizens living in the UK, that's a high fucking bar to clear.
It's odd because my recollection is a lot of people voting "leave" seemed to favour that £350m-a-week for the NHS.
...which they're not getting either. But somehow a hard Brexit that achieves none of the things it was sold on the basis of its more legitimate than a soft Brexit? The reality we're going to get with a hard Brexit is no more what the majority of Leave voters wanted than a soft Brexit is.
posted by Dysk at 9:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [6 favorites]
For those of us who are non-British EU citizens living in the UK, that's a high fucking bar to clear.
It's odd because my recollection is a lot of people voting "leave" seemed to favour that £350m-a-week for the NHS.
...which they're not getting either. But somehow a hard Brexit that achieves none of the things it was sold on the basis of its more legitimate than a soft Brexit? The reality we're going to get with a hard Brexit is no more what the majority of Leave voters wanted than a soft Brexit is.
posted by Dysk at 9:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [6 favorites]
The left is dead in the water
Don't write it off just yet. Keir Starmer was the stormer I thought he'd be today; and Corbyn is a *much* better performer against May than he was against Cameron. (His spokesman ruined the day with his "hey guys we can blame the Americans for Aleppo too, right?" bit though).
Labour gave the Tories a gift with their months of pissing around. It looks like the Tories squandered that, and *still* genuinely don't have a plan here. Combine that with May's failure to call an election she'd surely have won (echoes of Brown here!) and this might end up looking like two very serious Tory errors.
posted by bonaldi at 9:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [6 favorites]
Don't write it off just yet. Keir Starmer was the stormer I thought he'd be today; and Corbyn is a *much* better performer against May than he was against Cameron. (His spokesman ruined the day with his "hey guys we can blame the Americans for Aleppo too, right?" bit though).
Labour gave the Tories a gift with their months of pissing around. It looks like the Tories squandered that, and *still* genuinely don't have a plan here. Combine that with May's failure to call an election she'd surely have won (echoes of Brown here!) and this might end up looking like two very serious Tory errors.
posted by bonaldi at 9:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [6 favorites]
Their vision is of the country as a giant off-shore tax haven, a New Singapore or New Abu Dhabi, with a corresponding withering of the state to match.
I've always assumed this was the end goal, England as a gigantic tax haven for the world with the smallest possible population. They wouldn't actually need citizens anymore and could just rule the entire thing like a resort colony.
posted by The Whelk at 9:19 AM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
I've always assumed this was the end goal, England as a gigantic tax haven for the world with the smallest possible population. They wouldn't actually need citizens anymore and could just rule the entire thing like a resort colony.
posted by The Whelk at 9:19 AM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
Their vision is of the country as a giant off-shore tax haven
Juncker already gave the EU that - it's Luxembourg.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:34 AM on October 12, 2016
Juncker already gave the EU that - it's Luxembourg.
posted by Coda Tronca at 9:34 AM on October 12, 2016
The commentators on the Guardian politics live blog were practically swooning over Keir Starmer this afternoon.
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:38 AM on October 12, 2016
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:38 AM on October 12, 2016
Juncker already gave the EU that - it's Luxembourg.
Like a broken record.
posted by Dysk at 10:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
Like a broken record.
posted by Dysk at 10:05 AM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
OK, try Ireland then.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:09 AM on October 12, 2016
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:09 AM on October 12, 2016
For those of us who are non-British EU citizens living in the UK, that's a high fucking bar to clear.
I totally acknowledge this, and I'm sorry for how my country has behaved - in particular the upsurge in day to day racism that is visible all around us. But this is what worries me for the future. Brexit shows both the degree of anger, and the prevalence of an ugly racism in the country as a whole. Like most of the rest of the world nativist right wing populism is surging. The success of Trump, the Freedom Party, Le Pen, and Farage etc, has been contained so far, (except in Brexit). But only just.
If the elites are seen to override the popular will, and the left continues to be consumed by ideology and infighting, the potential for a real right wing populist to come to power is very real.
It may seem far fetched now, but a year ago I would never have believed that Trump could get as far as he has, or that Brexit could happen. May may be illiberal, pandering and foolish, but she's no Trump.
posted by Touchstone at 10:47 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
I totally acknowledge this, and I'm sorry for how my country has behaved - in particular the upsurge in day to day racism that is visible all around us. But this is what worries me for the future. Brexit shows both the degree of anger, and the prevalence of an ugly racism in the country as a whole. Like most of the rest of the world nativist right wing populism is surging. The success of Trump, the Freedom Party, Le Pen, and Farage etc, has been contained so far, (except in Brexit). But only just.
If the elites are seen to override the popular will, and the left continues to be consumed by ideology and infighting, the potential for a real right wing populist to come to power is very real.
It may seem far fetched now, but a year ago I would never have believed that Trump could get as far as he has, or that Brexit could happen. May may be illiberal, pandering and foolish, but she's no Trump.
posted by Touchstone at 10:47 AM on October 12, 2016 [1 favorite]
One of my late wife's pet peeves -- being a lawyer by trade -- was the general (willful) ignorance among UK politicians of the law and how blatantly they would propose or even enact laws or regulation that broke already existing law (not to mention the frequent attempts to create law that duplicated already existing rules, usually because some minister wanted to be tough on crime or immigration).
Much of the current Brexit "debate" is more of the same. It's not what the EU is willing to grant the UK: the sticking point is what it is legally allowed to do, which is wait until the British government finally makes the right formal steps to start the process of withdrawal. And only after withdrawal is complete is it actually able to renegotiate things like access to the EU market. The EU cannot make exceptions not because it's unwilling to, but because it's unable to.
The same goes for any other foreign government the UK would like to do business with before Brexit is complete. Even if it was legal to do so for them, keeping in mind WTO and such, what's the point for an Australia or New Zealand, let alone China or the US to start negotiating before the outcome of the formal withdrawal is clear? Why waste the time, money and effort on something that may turn out to be completely pointless?
posted by MartinWisse at 10:54 AM on October 12, 2016 [10 favorites]
Much of the current Brexit "debate" is more of the same. It's not what the EU is willing to grant the UK: the sticking point is what it is legally allowed to do, which is wait until the British government finally makes the right formal steps to start the process of withdrawal. And only after withdrawal is complete is it actually able to renegotiate things like access to the EU market. The EU cannot make exceptions not because it's unwilling to, but because it's unable to.
The same goes for any other foreign government the UK would like to do business with before Brexit is complete. Even if it was legal to do so for them, keeping in mind WTO and such, what's the point for an Australia or New Zealand, let alone China or the US to start negotiating before the outcome of the formal withdrawal is clear? Why waste the time, money and effort on something that may turn out to be completely pointless?
posted by MartinWisse at 10:54 AM on October 12, 2016 [10 favorites]
If the elites are seen to override the popular will [...] the potential for a real right wing populist to come to power is very real.
The popular will not being done is unavoidable. You think three hundred and fifty million quid a week will be going to the NHS? You think Britain becoming a world power, becoming fairer, becoming easier for those who're reacting to being fucked by lashing out with the Tories, you think that'll happen? We're past the point of giving people what they want, it isn't possible. So we may as well so the sensible, correct thing. Besides which, soft Brexit is Brexit. It's not the status quo. The referendum was so vague that we cannot please everyone who voted for it. Why please the worst?
posted by Dysk at 11:10 AM on October 12, 2016 [8 favorites]
The popular will not being done is unavoidable. You think three hundred and fifty million quid a week will be going to the NHS? You think Britain becoming a world power, becoming fairer, becoming easier for those who're reacting to being fucked by lashing out with the Tories, you think that'll happen? We're past the point of giving people what they want, it isn't possible. So we may as well so the sensible, correct thing. Besides which, soft Brexit is Brexit. It's not the status quo. The referendum was so vague that we cannot please everyone who voted for it. Why please the worst?
posted by Dysk at 11:10 AM on October 12, 2016 [8 favorites]
There is a certain pleasure in having those who have whined, carped, complained and girned for 40 years suddenly and unexpectedly faced with the dire prospect of Consequences and Responsibility. Giving in to the worst would be worth it if only to shut them the fuck up for a generation.
Except of course we can't, because they are xenophobic, racist and fascist bigots who are already destroying the country and attacking and killing people.
So not that much joy, to be honest. I hope they like Marmite at least; Tesco has pulled it over Brexit price rises
posted by bonaldi at 12:42 PM on October 12, 2016 [8 favorites]
Except of course we can't, because they are xenophobic, racist and fascist bigots who are already destroying the country and attacking and killing people.
So not that much joy, to be honest. I hope they like Marmite at least; Tesco has pulled it over Brexit price rises
posted by bonaldi at 12:42 PM on October 12, 2016 [8 favorites]
I hope they like Marmite at least; Tesco has pulled it over Brexit price rises
I think my local store has some jars in the foreign food shelf, so if there's a crisis we might be able to send some over. May have to substitute with Cenovis, though.
posted by effbot at 12:53 PM on October 12, 2016
I think my local store has some jars in the foreign food shelf, so if there's a crisis we might be able to send some over. May have to substitute with Cenovis, though.
posted by effbot at 12:53 PM on October 12, 2016
I lived in a small place (small economy) and moved to a big place (large economy), and perhaps that makes me more appreciative of the advantages of a larger connected economy. I always looked at the EU project with envy (countries bringing down walls so that their citizens gained access to a larger economy), and optimism (that the myriad practical complexities of managing such an ambitious thing would all work out in the end if only because there was so much to be gained).
I'm sad that (for one country at least) this was ruined for all the wrong reasons. Perhaps in years to come history will regard it as a mistake worthy of informing future decisions. A similar thing is apparent in the USA; the governing class is failing its responsibilities to the laboring class so abjectly that a second Guilded Age has resulted, in turn creating significant groundswell to simply change the failed status quo by whatever means is at hand, no-matter how unpiloted. Unpiloted because the ongoing insularity (if not capture and corruption) of the pilot-institutions seems have created the status quo and favors maintaining it.
I'm watching to see if the governing class (anywhere) can reform themselves enough to rise to the occasion, because I fear that things like Brexit (and Trump) will not stop happening while so many people are struggling.
posted by anonymisc at 3:38 PM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
I'm sad that (for one country at least) this was ruined for all the wrong reasons. Perhaps in years to come history will regard it as a mistake worthy of informing future decisions. A similar thing is apparent in the USA; the governing class is failing its responsibilities to the laboring class so abjectly that a second Guilded Age has resulted, in turn creating significant groundswell to simply change the failed status quo by whatever means is at hand, no-matter how unpiloted. Unpiloted because the ongoing insularity (if not capture and corruption) of the pilot-institutions seems have created the status quo and favors maintaining it.
I'm watching to see if the governing class (anywhere) can reform themselves enough to rise to the occasion, because I fear that things like Brexit (and Trump) will not stop happening while so many people are struggling.
posted by anonymisc at 3:38 PM on October 12, 2016 [3 favorites]
OK, try Ireland then.
Can you please stop that? You are insulting the history of entire countries in your noble quest to enlighten us on the evil nature of European elites through pithy one liners. Please spare us, it’s more offensive than the anti-foreigner rants of the worst clichéd tabloid readers. It’s offensive towards reality.
posted by bitteschoen at 5:16 PM on October 12, 2016 [8 favorites]
Can you please stop that? You are insulting the history of entire countries in your noble quest to enlighten us on the evil nature of European elites through pithy one liners. Please spare us, it’s more offensive than the anti-foreigner rants of the worst clichéd tabloid readers. It’s offensive towards reality.
posted by bitteschoen at 5:16 PM on October 12, 2016 [8 favorites]
The tax regimes of EU countries are surely relevant to the debate about what happens to Britain after Brexit. That's why a poster brought them up. My commenting 'style' (some one-liners?) is not at odds with the general tone of this site; you just happen to disagree with me on this issue.
posted by Coda Tronca at 11:21 PM on October 12, 2016
posted by Coda Tronca at 11:21 PM on October 12, 2016
No, it’s that you brought up Ireland after bringing up Luxembourg as an example of a "a giant off-shore tax haven" created by "Juncker’s EU" for the rich. In a series of one liners. In a thread about Brexit.
Ireland...
Good luck with that style of debate if no one else objects to it, clearly I must be the only mad person here to find it insulting and ridiculous.
posted by bitteschoen at 12:48 AM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
Ireland...
Good luck with that style of debate if no one else objects to it, clearly I must be the only mad person here to find it insulting and ridiculous.
posted by bitteschoen at 12:48 AM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
I have posted two one-line comments, a longer comment, and a link. There are plenty of other one-line comments in this thread referencing other countries, which I personally don't have any problem with, such as "It's like the UK looked at NAFTA and said "ooh, we'd like to be like Cuba in that arrangement!"
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:08 AM on October 13, 2016
posted by Coda Tronca at 1:08 AM on October 13, 2016
I remain confused about your point on Luxembourg bitteschoen, it has long been regarded as a tax haven.
posted by biffa at 1:44 AM on October 13, 2016
posted by biffa at 1:44 AM on October 13, 2016
Oh... the one who is baffled here is me and it’s about bringing up Ireland in relation to Luxembourg, and I was not the one to do that so ask them what their point was :)
Without getting into whatever the point about Luxembourg in relation to Brexit was, it is ridiculous and insulting and surreal to even mention Ireland in relation to the idea of tax havens created ad-hoc by some EU elites for the rich - especially in a thread talking about the UK and Brexit! does that even need to be spelled out?
posted by bitteschoen at 4:11 AM on October 13, 2016
Without getting into whatever the point about Luxembourg in relation to Brexit was, it is ridiculous and insulting and surreal to even mention Ireland in relation to the idea of tax havens created ad-hoc by some EU elites for the rich - especially in a thread talking about the UK and Brexit! does that even need to be spelled out?
posted by bitteschoen at 4:11 AM on October 13, 2016
I think the reference to Ireland was referring to the "Double Irish" tax dodge:
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:16 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
The strategy used payments between related entities in a corporate structure to move income from a higher-tax country to a lower or no tax jurisdiction. It relies on the fact that Irish tax law does not include transfer pricing rules as does the United States[1] and those of many other jurisdictions. Specifically, Ireland has territorial taxation, and does not levy taxes on income booked in subsidiaries of Irish companies that are outside the state.So e.g. Google's UK operation would operate out of London but have a nominal HQ in Ireland, so no tax in the UK because the HQ is in Ireland, but no tax in Ireland because the money was made outside the country (that is my simplified understanding, anyway).
posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:16 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Ah, and whose decision was that? Ireland has chosen its own policies in these matters. That’s got nothing to with the EU (no other country has those provisions in Europe, in fact, many other countries have fiscal systems that have the opposite effect, with far heavier taxes on corporations and companies of all sizes) and nothing to do with entire countries functioning as tax havens for the rich anyway. It sure does not make Ireland into an artificial creation of the EU. Or does it? What’s it got to do with anything here? What is the point of bringing that up?
We might as well start citing any legislation or fiscal system that can be considered controversial anywhere in Europe, and blame it all on the EU elites... and disparage and insult entire countries in the process. Especially countries that incidentally are going to be directly impacted by Brexit more than others.
Does that sound more understandable now maybe?
Because right now the pro-Brexit camp couldn’t be more insufferable but there is still room to make things worse and one way to do that is definitely to talk about Ireland like some evil example of what the evil EU can do...
posted by bitteschoen at 4:36 AM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
We might as well start citing any legislation or fiscal system that can be considered controversial anywhere in Europe, and blame it all on the EU elites... and disparage and insult entire countries in the process. Especially countries that incidentally are going to be directly impacted by Brexit more than others.
Does that sound more understandable now maybe?
Because right now the pro-Brexit camp couldn’t be more insufferable but there is still room to make things worse and one way to do that is definitely to talk about Ireland like some evil example of what the evil EU can do...
posted by bitteschoen at 4:36 AM on October 13, 2016 [3 favorites]
Good news! The Tories have figured out how to beat the international marmite conspiracy: So Unilever using Marmite prices to punish us for Brexit. toast-spread fight back starts here. From now on It's Aussie made Vegemite for me.
(For a brief moment, I thought that was your Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, but this seems to be another clown.)
posted by effbot at 4:47 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
(For a brief moment, I thought that was your Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, but this seems to be another clown.)
posted by effbot at 4:47 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
We might as well start citing any legislation or fiscal system that can be considered controversial anywhere in Europe, and blame it all on the EU elites... and disparage and insult entire countries in the process.
I didn't intend to disparage or insult any one, and I would like to apologise if that's the case. I just said that Ireland is a tax haven successfully operating within the EU, as is Luxembourg. Which is a relevant point to make if someone has suggested that the UK could now become a tax haven as a direct result of leaving the EU ("England as a gigantic tax haven for the world with the smallest possible population").
"Ireland had long been trying to market itself as a tax haven; it just wasn’t working, not until we joined the European Single Market in 1993."
To be honest, the City of London is already laundering some pretty filthy money from all over the world anyway.
posted by Coda Tronca at 4:56 AM on October 13, 2016
I didn't intend to disparage or insult any one, and I would like to apologise if that's the case. I just said that Ireland is a tax haven successfully operating within the EU, as is Luxembourg. Which is a relevant point to make if someone has suggested that the UK could now become a tax haven as a direct result of leaving the EU ("England as a gigantic tax haven for the world with the smallest possible population").
"Ireland had long been trying to market itself as a tax haven; it just wasn’t working, not until we joined the European Single Market in 1993."
To be honest, the City of London is already laundering some pretty filthy money from all over the world anyway.
posted by Coda Tronca at 4:56 AM on October 13, 2016
It's the handing a blank cheque mandate to reconfigure the economy to the Tories that's the part of Brexit enabling this, not the loss of the EU directly.
posted by Dysk at 5:28 AM on October 13, 2016
posted by Dysk at 5:28 AM on October 13, 2016
Re Scotland: some interesting stuff on Brexit in Nicola Sturgeon's speech to the SNP Conference today. The draft Indyref2 bill is the one getting the headlines, although tbh it's not a big surprise. SNP put this forward as part of the Programme for Government in September, so it was going to come some time before summer.
More interesting possibly is what they're saying about the timing, which is (still) that they want to have a Bill up and ready to go after the triggering of Article 50 - if the SNP consider it necessary. There was also a lot of talk about the Single Market, and the importance of Scotland staying in it, and the lack of mandate from Theresa May to take Scotland (or indeed any part of the UK) out of it.
Also, she announced that the Scottish Government will be setting out a plan for Scotland to protect Scotland's interests, which include a) more devolved powers to Scotland, including 'powers to strike international deals' and b) Scotland remaining in the Single Market. So that'll be interesting to watch.
posted by Catseye at 5:34 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
More interesting possibly is what they're saying about the timing, which is (still) that they want to have a Bill up and ready to go after the triggering of Article 50 - if the SNP consider it necessary. There was also a lot of talk about the Single Market, and the importance of Scotland staying in it, and the lack of mandate from Theresa May to take Scotland (or indeed any part of the UK) out of it.
Also, she announced that the Scottish Government will be setting out a plan for Scotland to protect Scotland's interests, which include a) more devolved powers to Scotland, including 'powers to strike international deals' and b) Scotland remaining in the Single Market. So that'll be interesting to watch.
posted by Catseye at 5:34 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
BuzzFeed on the toast-spread fight back. Includes "this is not a joke" comment from the MP in question, but posting it here mostly for the URL.
posted by effbot at 5:49 AM on October 13, 2016
posted by effbot at 5:49 AM on October 13, 2016
From now on It's Aussie made Vegemite for me.
That's all well and good, except that the pound is down almost 17% against the AUD since 23 June. Plus Vegemite has never been cheap here anyway, what with being shipped halfway around the world. (Which is also rather relevant to all the "we can make a better trade deal with Australia!" talk lately.)
posted by rory at 6:05 AM on October 13, 2016
That's all well and good, except that the pound is down almost 17% against the AUD since 23 June. Plus Vegemite has never been cheap here anyway, what with being shipped halfway around the world. (Which is also rather relevant to all the "we can make a better trade deal with Australia!" talk lately.)
posted by rory at 6:05 AM on October 13, 2016
Remain lost. "Soft" Brexit, leaving us subject to EU directives (in many areas), paying into the EU budget, and retaining Freedom of Movement would be seen, correctly, as defying the will of the people.
Except, as late as today, Boris still insists that the UK will get an even better deal than it had before and is vague when asked about the single market:
“We are going to get a deal that will be of huge value, possibly greater value,” he told MPs on the foreign affairs committee.
There's an echo of Trump in these statements: There's a plan and, believe me, it is such a great plan. It is the BEST plan.
The people asked to turn the wheel of the car so as to get a better view and are now being driven off the cliff.
posted by vacapinta at 6:49 AM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
Except, as late as today, Boris still insists that the UK will get an even better deal than it had before and is vague when asked about the single market:
“We are going to get a deal that will be of huge value, possibly greater value,” he told MPs on the foreign affairs committee.
There's an echo of Trump in these statements: There's a plan and, believe me, it is such a great plan. It is the BEST plan.
The people asked to turn the wheel of the car so as to get a better view and are now being driven off the cliff.
posted by vacapinta at 6:49 AM on October 13, 2016 [2 favorites]
The people asked to turn the wheel of the car so as to get a better view and are now being driven off the cliff.
And Scotland has decided its better option is opening the suicide doors and bailing out at sixty miles an hour.
posted by Talez at 6:56 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
And Scotland has decided its better option is opening the suicide doors and bailing out at sixty miles an hour.
posted by Talez at 6:56 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
Wait, what? Some people in the UK feel so strongly pro-Brexit that they're switching from Marmite, toast spread of the gods, to that bizarre Aussie invention that seems to be basically Marmite plus a metric ton of sugar? Have the gone mad?
And I'm only halfway joking here.
posted by sotonohito at 7:21 AM on October 13, 2016
And I'm only halfway joking here.
posted by sotonohito at 7:21 AM on October 13, 2016
What? There's no added sugar in Vegemite. Plenty of salt, though.
posted by rory at 8:00 AM on October 13, 2016
posted by rory at 8:00 AM on October 13, 2016
Rarely do you see "Got what you wanted, but don't want what you got" on such a grand scale.
posted by prepmonkey at 8:35 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by prepmonkey at 8:35 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
The people asked to turn the wheel of the car so as to get a better view and are now being driven off the cliff.Speaking of which, does anyone remember a cartoon (it might have been Tom Tomorrow) from about the time of the Iraq War? A Republican is in the driver's seat and a Democrat is in the passenger seat asking if they know where they're going and have a map and the Republican tells them to relax as everything's going to work out great. The final pane is the car going off the edge of a cliff and the Republican saying "you wanted this to happen."
I can't find it via Google yet it seems apposite in 2016 in all sorts of ways.
posted by Sonny Jim at 9:07 AM on October 13, 2016
This one? (The original links I turned up are 404)
posted by doop at 9:33 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by doop at 9:33 AM on October 13, 2016 [1 favorite]
No worries, the Marmite situation is under control: We're pleased to confirm the supply situation with Tesco UK&I is successfully resolved. To those that missed us, thanks for all the love.
(seems Brexit fundamentalists are still talking about a boycott, apparently nobody in the UK knows that Unilever is part British. Or maybe "part" is the problem, in these nativist days...)
posted by effbot at 11:48 AM on October 13, 2016
(seems Brexit fundamentalists are still talking about a boycott, apparently nobody in the UK knows that Unilever is part British. Or maybe "part" is the problem, in these nativist days...)
posted by effbot at 11:48 AM on October 13, 2016
Britain's #1 expert on experts explains the Brexit vote: “During the referendum, those thinking of voting Leave were told they didn't understand what was in their own financial interests [...] The British people, understandably, didn’t like being patronised or slut-shamed so they looked closely, and with increasing attention, to the arguments.”
posted by effbot at 4:15 AM on October 14, 2016
posted by effbot at 4:15 AM on October 14, 2016
How to Make Britain Great Again...
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:02 AM on October 14, 2016
“I think we have to ask ourselves what sort of Britain we want to live in and what we can do,” Jake Berry, a lawmaker, said Tuesday in Parliament, “to make Britain great again.” His answer? “If Brexit is going to mean successful Brexit, it should also mean the return of our royal yacht!”Britannia'll Fix It!
posted by Mister Bijou at 9:02 AM on October 14, 2016
Britain's #1 expert on experts explains the Brexit vote
Gove didn't pick this week to give up sniffing glue, it seems. 'Slut shamed', WTH?
posted by asok at 2:22 AM on October 17, 2016
Gove didn't pick this week to give up sniffing glue, it seems. 'Slut shamed', WTH?
posted by asok at 2:22 AM on October 17, 2016
Tories gone wild: Petition: Amend the Treason Felony Act to make supporting UK membership of the EU a crime.
posted by effbot at 2:36 AM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by effbot at 2:36 AM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
The Treason Felony Act be amended to include the following offences:Literally a thought-crime. Irony is dead.
To imagine, [...] to support UK becoming a member of the European Union;
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:46 AM on October 17, 2016 [2 favorites]
The guy who penned that is a bloody Tory councillor, signed it as such (not just under his own name) and nobody in the party machinery thought to stop him or get that shit disowned as soon as this hit the news?
posted by Dysk at 6:46 AM on October 17, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 6:46 AM on October 17, 2016 [2 favorites]
2 people in my constituency signed it!
Oh man!
On the other hand:
"Maidenhead,
MP Theresa May
0 Signatures"
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:07 AM on October 17, 2016
Oh man!
On the other hand:
"Maidenhead,
MP Theresa May
0 Signatures"
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:07 AM on October 17, 2016
I love that petition signatures map. It really helps you avoid racists
or find out where really posh people live
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:10 AM on October 17, 2016
or find out where really posh people live
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:10 AM on October 17, 2016
The guy who penned that is a bloody Tory councillor, signed it as such (not just under his own name) and nobody in the party machinery thought to stop him or get that shit disowned as soon as this hit the news?
He's been suspended.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:26 AM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
He's been suspended.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 8:26 AM on October 17, 2016 [1 favorite]
He's been suspended.
...until November.
That's 'two weeks' to you or I.
posted by Dysk at 9:36 AM on October 17, 2016 [2 favorites]
...until November.
That's 'two weeks' to you or I.
posted by Dysk at 9:36 AM on October 17, 2016 [2 favorites]
Looks like innovative jams will fix it: British tea, jam and biscuits will be at the heart of Britain's Brexit trade plans.
posted by effbot at 2:50 AM on October 19, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by effbot at 2:50 AM on October 19, 2016 [1 favorite]
Irish citizens looked to British politicians to safeguard Northern Ireland’s hard-won peace. But we have been failed, utterly
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:48 AM on October 19, 2016
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:48 AM on October 19, 2016
Regarding that hard Brexit thing: Theresa May, earlier today: "[Burnham] talks of a hard Brexit this government is going to take the country into. There is no suggestion of that whatsoever."
posted by effbot at 12:13 PM on October 24, 2016
posted by effbot at 12:13 PM on October 24, 2016
We’re not the only people with concerns. It’s just that everyone else seems to have them on our behalf, out of the charity of their hearts. The white middle classes are just as likely to be disturbed by brown faces or foreign accents as the white working classes are, but they are generally educated enough to realise they can’t just come out and say it. Working-class poverty, framed as the result of the strains these new arrivals place on our generous social safety net, provides the cover for them to object to immigration even though they are unharmed by it.Phil McDuff, "I’m white and working class. I’m sick of Brexiters saying they speak for me," The Guardian (25 October 2016).
But our other “genuine concerns” – such as school and hospital funding, benefits and disability payments, the crushing of industries that formed the backbones of our local economies – are ignored or dismissed out of hand. They are cast as luxuries, an irresponsible “tax and spend” approach, or they are turned back on us as evidence of our own fecklessness and lack of ambition. When we say “we need benefits to live because you hollowed out our towns in pursuit of a flawed economic doctrine,” we are castigated for being workshy, and told we only have ourselves to blame. If we alter our complaints to blame foreign people it’s a different story. “I can’t get a council house because they’ve all been sold to private landlords,” gets nothing. “I can’t get a council house because they’ve all gone to bloody Muslims,” gets on the front page of the tabloids.
Just as we are given identities as good or bad working-class people based on whether we adequately perform our roles as good little workers or whether we insolently insist on being disabled, unemployed or unionised, so our authenticity as working-class people depends on our use for political ends. Are we salt of the earth yeomen, or skiving thickos milking the system, or drains on the already stretched infrastructure? That all depends: are we kicking out immigrants or privatising a clinic today?
posted by Sonny Jim at 5:05 AM on October 25, 2016 [7 favorites]
The Brexit thing just got even more interesting. Anyone up for making another Brexit post in a day or two?
posted by effbot at 3:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by effbot at 3:43 AM on November 3, 2016 [4 favorites]
Bloody hell! I wasn't expecting that, to be honest. (Though I think it's absolutely the right decision, this being a parliamentary and not a direct democracy and all.)
But can our parliamentary opposition actually get its act together and defeat our first UKIP government? The thought of that makes me much less optimistic.
posted by Sonny Jim at 4:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
But can our parliamentary opposition actually get its act together and defeat our first UKIP government? The thought of that makes me much less optimistic.
posted by Sonny Jim at 4:24 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
I wonder if May's Tories saw this coming and adopted their "Brexit means Brexit" and hard Brexit stance banking on it not getting past parliament, and thus being able to both avoid Brexit and use that fact to split the opposition between Labour and UKIP, ensuring Tory government for the foreseeable future.
posted by Dysk at 4:35 AM on November 3, 2016
posted by Dysk at 4:35 AM on November 3, 2016
Here's an analysis from the sharpest mind in parliament: "Unelected judges calling the shots. This is precisely why we voted out. Power to the people!"
(I'm out of facepalms, should probably skip politics for a week or two)
posted by effbot at 4:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
(I'm out of facepalms, should probably skip politics for a week or two)
posted by effbot at 4:49 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
So the Brexit result means we should also abolish the judiciary? It is truly a wellspring of fabulous constitutional ideas.
posted by Sonny Jim at 4:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by Sonny Jim at 4:58 AM on November 3, 2016 [3 favorites]
Election time!
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:16 AM on November 3, 2016
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:16 AM on November 3, 2016
... and hand May and the Brexiteers a crushing parliamentary majority (on current polling) as well as a sweeping mandate for hard Brexit? Not sure that's what a lot of us would want. Anyway, my understanding is that the government can't call an early election due to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?
posted by Sonny Jim at 5:20 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Sonny Jim at 5:20 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Boris said this was unthinkable.
Then an itheberg hit it.
posted by vbfg at 5:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
Then an itheberg hit it.
posted by vbfg at 5:26 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
Anyway, my understanding is that the government can't call an early election due to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011?
There are some ways around it, like a no confidence vote or a 2/3rds majority (if Corbyn wants an early election, that might even work). Or they could use parliamentary supremacy to route around it: “It could be literally a one clause bill saying ‘notwithstanding the Fixed Term Parliament’s Act 2011 the next election shall be held on x date’.”
posted by effbot at 5:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
There are some ways around it, like a no confidence vote or a 2/3rds majority (if Corbyn wants an early election, that might even work). Or they could use parliamentary supremacy to route around it: “It could be literally a one clause bill saying ‘notwithstanding the Fixed Term Parliament’s Act 2011 the next election shall be held on x date’.”
posted by effbot at 5:33 AM on November 3, 2016 [2 favorites]
... and hand May and the Brexiteers a crushing parliamentary majority
I don't see how May can carry on much longer or unite the Tories in any way. She supported Remain before the referendum and now appears to be going through the appeal courts to enforce Hard Brexit.
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016
I don't see how May can carry on much longer or unite the Tories in any way. She supported Remain before the referendum and now appears to be going through the appeal courts to enforce Hard Brexit.
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:38 AM on November 3, 2016
Linguistic confusion in politics: Damien McGuinness is in Berlin where the politicians are frustrated that British politicians don't seem to understand that no means no. 5 minute clip from BBC Radio 4, From Our Own Correspondent (genteel not-so-newsy musings). Link might be UK-only. I couldn't find it in the podcasts unfortunately.
German correspondent remembers trips to Germany, girls told not to politely refuse a biscuit and wait for their host to ask again. Principle is applied to German politicians' repeated statements, that Britain will not be granted all of the free trade with none of the free movement.
posted by sourcejedi at 5:42 AM on November 3, 2016
German correspondent remembers trips to Germany, girls told not to politely refuse a biscuit and wait for their host to ask again. Principle is applied to German politicians' repeated statements, that Britain will not be granted all of the free trade with none of the free movement.
posted by sourcejedi at 5:42 AM on November 3, 2016
Linguistic confusion in politics
Corresponding article (or transcript, even?): "Now girls, when someone offers you something to eat, and you want it, you say yes, not no."
posted by effbot at 5:55 AM on November 3, 2016
Corresponding article (or transcript, even?): "Now girls, when someone offers you something to eat, and you want it, you say yes, not no."
posted by effbot at 5:55 AM on November 3, 2016
Yep, that looks like the script / transcript. Thanks :).
posted by sourcejedi at 6:28 AM on November 3, 2016
posted by sourcejedi at 6:28 AM on November 3, 2016
should probably skip politics for a week or two
And twitter too, since I just learned from headline screenshots that one of Britain's leading tabloids (daily readership ~4M, 55% female) has decided that the entire thing is extra horrible since one of the judges is openly gay and the litigant not really British. FFS, UK.
posted by effbot at 6:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
And twitter too, since I just learned from headline screenshots that one of Britain's leading tabloids (daily readership ~4M, 55% female) has decided that the entire thing is extra horrible since one of the judges is openly gay and the litigant not really British. FFS, UK.
posted by effbot at 6:48 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Let's not forget that one of the candidates for the UKIP leadership also thinks that the judges involved in this should be summarily sacked for their impudence.
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Sonny Jim at 6:55 AM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Shall we just wait until the yanks finish shitting the bed and then we can have a half a dozen 5000 comment posts about Brexit then? We can use a nice British musical for the thread titles. Something by Andrew Lloyd Webber perhaps?
posted by longbaugh at 4:52 PM on November 3, 2016
posted by longbaugh at 4:52 PM on November 3, 2016
I remember the time I knew what happiness was
posted by the man of twists and turns at 5:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by the man of twists and turns at 5:33 PM on November 3, 2016 [1 favorite]
Well, the press reaction to this decision is interesting and not at all suggestive of a frightening dystopian nightmare or anything.
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:02 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by Sonny Jim at 1:02 AM on November 4, 2016 [2 favorites]
You might have seen the demand by Conservative MP Andrew Rosindell that BBC One should play God Save the Queen at the end of the day's programming to mark our departure from the EU. Well, we're not BBC One and it's not quite the end of the day, but we're happy to oblige.
posted by Grangousier at 6:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]
posted by Grangousier at 6:57 AM on November 4, 2016 [6 favorites]
Shall we just wait until the yanks finish shitting the bed and then we can have a half a dozen 5000 comment posts about Brexit then? We can use a nice British musical for the thread titles. Something by Andrew Lloyd Webber perhaps?
Well I feel really bad about saying his now. You take as long as you need.
posted by longbaugh at 7:39 AM on November 9, 2016 [2 favorites]
Well I feel really bad about saying his now. You take as long as you need.
posted by longbaugh at 7:39 AM on November 9, 2016 [2 favorites]
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Brexiteers seem to prioritize self-governance and immigration control over the economy so I don't think they will be too surprised about the future, even if it will be rough and full of uncertainty.
posted by Foci for Analysis at 11:22 AM on October 11, 2016 [1 favorite]