For Black drivers, a cop's first 45 words are a portent
June 1, 2023 8:37 AM Subscribe
When a police officer stops a Black driver, the first 45 words said by that officer hold important clues about how their encounter is likely to go.
Car stops that result in a search, handcuffing, or arrest are nearly three times more liely to begin with the police officer issuing a command, such as "Keep your hands on the wheel" or "Turn the car off." That's according to a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that examined police body-camera footage of 577 routine car stops involving Black drivers.
Car stops that result in a search, handcuffing, or arrest are nearly three times more liely to begin with the police officer issuing a command, such as "Keep your hands on the wheel" or "Turn the car off." That's according to a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that examined police body-camera footage of 577 routine car stops involving Black drivers.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:49 AM on June 1, 2023 [95 favorites]
Are you counting my words?
posted by fairmettle at 9:01 AM on June 1, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by fairmettle at 9:01 AM on June 1, 2023 [12 favorites]
Interesting. I would have guessed that the first fourteen words would be the best predictor.
posted by ActionPopulated at 10:10 AM on June 1, 2023 [34 favorites]
posted by ActionPopulated at 10:10 AM on June 1, 2023 [34 favorites]
I was scratching my head trying to figure out the context of this Onion article. Now I know!
posted by Happydaz at 10:38 AM on June 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Happydaz at 10:38 AM on June 1, 2023 [8 favorites]
The scientists controlled for factors such as the officer's gender and race, as well as the neighborhood crime rate. About 200 officers were involved in these stops.
"It's not really a function of a few officers driving this pattern," says Rho.
All Cops Are Predictably Bastards
posted by AlSweigart at 10:39 AM on June 1, 2023 [28 favorites]
"It's not really a function of a few officers driving this pattern," says Rho.
All Cops Are Predictably Bastards
posted by AlSweigart at 10:39 AM on June 1, 2023 [28 favorites]
Rho says in planning this study, they had initially set out to look at patterns related to traffic stop escalation for white drivers too, but realized that it happened so infrequently for white drivers that there just weren't sufficient numbers to even include them in the analysis.
I also pulled this quote. It bears repeating. I know this fact. I know it intrinsically. I know it like I can close my eyes and know my arms are still attached..... But fuck. It's different when it comes under the auspices of scientific investigation. There is exactly only one problem and it's not anything to do with what the driver did to get pulled over.
posted by chasles at 11:38 AM on June 1, 2023 [39 favorites]
I also pulled this quote. It bears repeating. I know this fact. I know it intrinsically. I know it like I can close my eyes and know my arms are still attached..... But fuck. It's different when it comes under the auspices of scientific investigation. There is exactly only one problem and it's not anything to do with what the driver did to get pulled over.
posted by chasles at 11:38 AM on June 1, 2023 [39 favorites]
Over 15% of Black drivers experienced an escalated outcome such as a search, handcuffing, or arrest, while less than 1% of white drivers experienced one of those outcomes.Well, I'm drawing some fucking conclusions from that.
"They're not drawing any conclusions from that, but these are things we should just be paying attention to," says Meares.
That's according to a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that examined police body-camera footage of 577 routine car stops involving Black drivers.They couldn't have gone with a larger sample size? Say... 1312?
posted by xedrik at 12:25 PM on June 1, 2023 [13 favorites]
I read the article to ask whether responses to the first words mattered. The closest I could find was
posted by Dashy at 12:45 PM on June 1, 2023 [64 favorites]
The fact that the initial words an officer speaks during a car stop can presage an escalated outcome suggests that escalation need not build over the length of the stop: stops that ended in escalation often began in escalation. Could officers’ language in these encounters simply reflect their reaction to drivers’ combative language and actions? Perhaps. However, this account is not supported by the data. A content coding of drivers’ language in our thin slices of escalated encounters found no instances where the driver refused to comply with an officer’s command or answer an officer’s questionThat leads me to interpret the study as: police approach Black people with intent to dominate. Nothing Black people do or say after that matters. Which is really heartbreaking, knowing that Black people often train/socialize their children to respond oh-so-carefully to authority in ways that white people don't have to. It was never going to make a difference.
posted by Dashy at 12:45 PM on June 1, 2023 [64 favorites]
The framing of this study seems a bit off to me, as though the words a cop says dictate their actions. No, the cop is saying these words because they have already decided how the encounter will go. I think this is something the authors understand, and the framing is just catchy marketing, but it gives cops too much credit and paints them as passive actors, unable to control even their own words.
posted by TurnKey at 2:06 PM on June 1, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by TurnKey at 2:06 PM on June 1, 2023 [13 favorites]
Philando Castile (previously) " was fatally shot during a traffic stop by Native-American police officer Jeronimo Yanez" in 2016. Castile's girlfriend and her daughter were in the car.
"Prior to the shooting, Castile had been stopped by the police at least 49 times in 13 years for minor traffic and equipment violations, the majority of which were dismissed." 49 times. He was 32 years old.
I'm in my late 50s, and I've been stopped by the police about 10 times, and have yet to be shot to death, despite yelling obscenities at the cop on more than one occasion. I wonder what could explain this discrepancy? The answer may surprise you.
Spoiler: OK, it won't. It's white privilege.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:18 PM on June 1, 2023 [15 favorites]
"Prior to the shooting, Castile had been stopped by the police at least 49 times in 13 years for minor traffic and equipment violations, the majority of which were dismissed." 49 times. He was 32 years old.
I'm in my late 50s, and I've been stopped by the police about 10 times, and have yet to be shot to death, despite yelling obscenities at the cop on more than one occasion. I wonder what could explain this discrepancy? The answer may surprise you.
Spoiler: OK, it won't. It's white privilege.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:18 PM on June 1, 2023 [15 favorites]
Spoiler: OK, it won't. It's white privilege.
It is, but its to some degree mediated through the income and wealth variables. I've been pulled over three times when I drove a totaled Honda Civic hand-me down for minor traffic and equipment violations, and zero times in the car I replaced it with. I also commuted further then than I do now that I can afford to live closer to work, or even work from home many days. But none of those encounters ended in arrest, or even citations, thankfully.
The problems here are multidimensional and sometimes structural: you can hire the least prejudiced traffic cop around and still get racist policing if the police chief sets the quotas on equipment violations. And speaking of dimensionality: it's a bit concerning that they don't further pull apart the gender dimension. The dataset has twice as many men arrested than women, and the paper reports escalations are 10x more likely.
posted by pwnguin at 2:48 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
It is, but its to some degree mediated through the income and wealth variables. I've been pulled over three times when I drove a totaled Honda Civic hand-me down for minor traffic and equipment violations, and zero times in the car I replaced it with. I also commuted further then than I do now that I can afford to live closer to work, or even work from home many days. But none of those encounters ended in arrest, or even citations, thankfully.
The problems here are multidimensional and sometimes structural: you can hire the least prejudiced traffic cop around and still get racist policing if the police chief sets the quotas on equipment violations. And speaking of dimensionality: it's a bit concerning that they don't further pull apart the gender dimension. The dataset has twice as many men arrested than women, and the paper reports escalations are 10x more likely.
posted by pwnguin at 2:48 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
quotas on equipment violations
One basic thing you learn from watching Cops is that equipment violations aren't really about making sure all cars on the road are up to code, they are a pretext for searches. If you see somebody you want to profile but can't spot a plausible violation you can also follow them until they get nervous and make a minor traffic mistake.
(In addition, you learn that cops will taze people within seconds if they don't comply fast enough. Really, despite the conventional wisdom that the show was LEO propaganda, it was pretty good documentation of what your local PD is up to. Everybody should watch a few episodes.)
posted by anhedonic at 3:55 PM on June 1, 2023 [10 favorites]
One basic thing you learn from watching Cops is that equipment violations aren't really about making sure all cars on the road are up to code, they are a pretext for searches. If you see somebody you want to profile but can't spot a plausible violation you can also follow them until they get nervous and make a minor traffic mistake.
(In addition, you learn that cops will taze people within seconds if they don't comply fast enough. Really, despite the conventional wisdom that the show was LEO propaganda, it was pretty good documentation of what your local PD is up to. Everybody should watch a few episodes.)
posted by anhedonic at 3:55 PM on June 1, 2023 [10 favorites]
49 times. He was 32 years old
I did the rough math and have been stopped once per every six years I've been driving (call it once per 80,000 miles driven), and baring one stop that I don't think had reasonable cause (I evidently parked my car near a prostitution hot spot and drove off with my friend at 2am only to be pulled over about 10 seconds later and released about 30 seconds after that when the cop came to the window and didn't find what he was expecting), all of them have been at face value reasonable stops (speeding, driving with out my lights on etc.) Surprise I'm not a POC.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 4:07 PM on June 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
I did the rough math and have been stopped once per every six years I've been driving (call it once per 80,000 miles driven), and baring one stop that I don't think had reasonable cause (I evidently parked my car near a prostitution hot spot and drove off with my friend at 2am only to be pulled over about 10 seconds later and released about 30 seconds after that when the cop came to the window and didn't find what he was expecting), all of them have been at face value reasonable stops (speeding, driving with out my lights on etc.) Surprise I'm not a POC.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 4:07 PM on June 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Perhaps 1488.That's according to a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that examined police body-camera footage of 577 routine car stops involving Black drivers.They couldn't have gone with a larger sample size? Say... 1312?
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:36 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Rho says in planning this study, they had initially set out to look at patterns related to traffic stop escalation for white drivers too, but realized that it happened so infrequently for white drivers that there just weren't sufficient numbers to even include them in the analysis.
Like others here, I've been pulled over a number of times, sometimes for good reason, sometimes totally bogus. Similar to the study, I've found that you can tell right off how the interaction is going to go, like that was decided before they even walked up to the car, and it gets signaled with how the first sentences are delivered. But, also like others commenting, it's never gone in a scary/violent direction for me thanks to privilege -- a bad interaction means actually getting a ticket instead of a warning, versus a bad interaction being life-changing.
If you see somebody you want to profile but can't spot a plausible violation you can also follow them until they get nervous and make a minor traffic mistake.
The last time I got pulled over was because of this. A trooper followed behind me in the center lane on the freeway for a while and then got right up on my bumper. So I changed lanes figuring he wanted to get by, but nope, that was his excuse to pull me over due to the exact amount of time between me signaling and then moving. (He was looking for drugs; I was a sad disappointment for his quota.)
posted by Dip Flash at 4:41 PM on June 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Like others here, I've been pulled over a number of times, sometimes for good reason, sometimes totally bogus. Similar to the study, I've found that you can tell right off how the interaction is going to go, like that was decided before they even walked up to the car, and it gets signaled with how the first sentences are delivered. But, also like others commenting, it's never gone in a scary/violent direction for me thanks to privilege -- a bad interaction means actually getting a ticket instead of a warning, versus a bad interaction being life-changing.
If you see somebody you want to profile but can't spot a plausible violation you can also follow them until they get nervous and make a minor traffic mistake.
The last time I got pulled over was because of this. A trooper followed behind me in the center lane on the freeway for a while and then got right up on my bumper. So I changed lanes figuring he wanted to get by, but nope, that was his excuse to pull me over due to the exact amount of time between me signaling and then moving. (He was looking for drugs; I was a sad disappointment for his quota.)
posted by Dip Flash at 4:41 PM on June 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Oakland, CA police started wearing body cameras in 2010 – one of the first departments in the U.S. to do so; it's seen a 66 percent decrease in use of force incidents since the department started issuing body cameras to all of its officers in 2011. Oakland's Police Dept. (OPD) has been under federal oversight since 2003 (the settlement the city of Oakland negotiated with its police force; 2014 OPD camera policy at ACLU). Federal oversight is rare: Out of about 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the United States, there are less than two dozen that are enforced by the Department of Justice or some other form of a federal "consent decree." In 2014, OPD began an important collaboration with Stanford University’s S.P.A.R.K.S. Program as a proactive approach to analyze OPD’s traffic and pedestrian stop data and body-worn camera program. OPD is the first law enforcement agency in the country to allow an external academic partner to examine data collected from vehicle and pedestrian stops and analyze body-worn camera footage. New Oakland police body cameras turn on automatically when officers draw their guns (The Oaklandside, March 16, 2022) The City Council increased the $8.1 million camera contract by $250,000 to include other auto-activation features.
FPP's study: "This research was supported by grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (G-1512-150464 and G-1805-153038). We thank the city and the police department whose provision of officer body-worn camera footage enabled this research. The funding, collaborations, and research referenced in this publication were administered and supported by Stanford SPARQ, a center that builds research-driven partnerships with industry leaders and changemakers to combat bias, reduce disparities, and drive culture change."
Previous study (footnote 13 in current study), also funded by G-1512-150464: Our dataset consists of transcribed body camera footage from vehicle stops of white and black community members conducted by the Oakland Police Department during the month of April 2014. [...] Per Oakland Police Department policy, officers turn on their cameras before making contact with the driver and record for the duration of the stop. From the 183 h of footage in these interactions, we obtain 36,738 usable officer utterances for our analysis. -- R. Voigt et al., Language from police body camera footage shows racial disparities in officer respect. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114, 6521–6526 (2017).
"All of the stops in this study occurred in a racially diverse, medium-sized U.S. city over the course of one month; the researchers won't identify the city for privacy reasons." (NPR, May 29, 2023)
Judge keeps Oakland police under federal oversight, looks to address ‘cultural rot’ (Oakland North, April 12, 2023)
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:48 PM on June 1, 2023 [16 favorites]
FPP's study: "This research was supported by grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (G-1512-150464 and G-1805-153038). We thank the city and the police department whose provision of officer body-worn camera footage enabled this research. The funding, collaborations, and research referenced in this publication were administered and supported by Stanford SPARQ, a center that builds research-driven partnerships with industry leaders and changemakers to combat bias, reduce disparities, and drive culture change."
Previous study (footnote 13 in current study), also funded by G-1512-150464: Our dataset consists of transcribed body camera footage from vehicle stops of white and black community members conducted by the Oakland Police Department during the month of April 2014. [...] Per Oakland Police Department policy, officers turn on their cameras before making contact with the driver and record for the duration of the stop. From the 183 h of footage in these interactions, we obtain 36,738 usable officer utterances for our analysis. -- R. Voigt et al., Language from police body camera footage shows racial disparities in officer respect. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114, 6521–6526 (2017).
"All of the stops in this study occurred in a racially diverse, medium-sized U.S. city over the course of one month; the researchers won't identify the city for privacy reasons." (NPR, May 29, 2023)
Judge keeps Oakland police under federal oversight, looks to address ‘cultural rot’ (Oakland North, April 12, 2023)
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:48 PM on June 1, 2023 [16 favorites]
So why didn’t the writer include some actual examples of replies or responses?
posted by Ideefixe at 4:49 PM on June 1, 2023
posted by Ideefixe at 4:49 PM on June 1, 2023
There are examples in the PNAS study, but overall, of course, a statistical analysis of 577 stops is much more persuasive than a few quotes.
posted by hydropsyche at 5:15 PM on June 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hydropsyche at 5:15 PM on June 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
“I know what you’re thinking. ‘Did he say 45 words or only 44?’ Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do ya, punk?”
posted by Skwirl at 5:54 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Skwirl at 5:54 PM on June 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
I used to drive a janky old car with DC plates.
Whenever I'd drive up to see my folks in NJ, I'd get pulled over, on average, once per three-day trip. Always at night. Never for anything with remotely-probable cause (taillights that weren't actually out, driving in the left lane, etc). Never received a ticket, never accused of anything even remotely approximating a real offense.
Every time, it'd be for a completely fabricated offense, and every time, the cop would be visibly surprised and apologetic upon looking into my window the first time. They'd profiled me wrong. They didn't even try to hide it.
When I got a slightly-newer car and moved out of The District, these traffic stops magically stopped.
It was all so fucking blatant.
posted by schmod at 8:35 PM on June 1, 2023 [30 favorites]
Whenever I'd drive up to see my folks in NJ, I'd get pulled over, on average, once per three-day trip. Always at night. Never for anything with remotely-probable cause (taillights that weren't actually out, driving in the left lane, etc). Never received a ticket, never accused of anything even remotely approximating a real offense.
Every time, it'd be for a completely fabricated offense, and every time, the cop would be visibly surprised and apologetic upon looking into my window the first time. They'd profiled me wrong. They didn't even try to hide it.
When I got a slightly-newer car and moved out of The District, these traffic stops magically stopped.
It was all so fucking blatant.
posted by schmod at 8:35 PM on June 1, 2023 [30 favorites]
Coincidentally, "fucking blatant" is how much the incidents related above and catalogued in the study are a violation of the Fourth Amendment protection against unreasonable searches and seizures.
posted by Gelatin at 8:47 AM on June 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 8:47 AM on June 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
I've probably mentioned this before but for a while in my twenties I was driving two different cars. Prior to that I didn't really believe in profiling. After, oh ya it's a thing.
The first was a low power sporty looking commuter with 92hp. For perspective there is only a single car you can buy today with less power. The other was a huge formal looking 2DRHT with literally 4x the power but it looked like something Gramma would drive to church while wearing a fancy hat. The latter could chirp the tires on a 3-2 kickdown and would comfortably cruise at 120 mph.
The commuter I'd get pulled over for some sort of harrassment at least once every couple weeks. The thing was a fricken cop magnet. Never got a ticket but it got to the point that I'd avoid driving it for shorter trips because 10 minute trips to the grocery store would take half an hour because I'd get pulled over for some bullshit interaction with a cop. I became an expert on potential moving violations. Did you know if you have a light, say an aftermarket fog light, installed on your vehicle it must work even if it wasn't ever factory equipment? I do now.
The Gramma car never got stopped despite being wildly more capable of spirted driving. Never. Completely invisible to cops.
The most rediculous event was getting a written warning for excessive acceleration onto a highway. In a car that could barely get out of its own way.
And I'm a whitish looking guy, it must be hell for people who look more indigenous where they can't just change up what they are driving.
posted by Mitheral at 2:22 PM on June 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
The first was a low power sporty looking commuter with 92hp. For perspective there is only a single car you can buy today with less power. The other was a huge formal looking 2DRHT with literally 4x the power but it looked like something Gramma would drive to church while wearing a fancy hat. The latter could chirp the tires on a 3-2 kickdown and would comfortably cruise at 120 mph.
The commuter I'd get pulled over for some sort of harrassment at least once every couple weeks. The thing was a fricken cop magnet. Never got a ticket but it got to the point that I'd avoid driving it for shorter trips because 10 minute trips to the grocery store would take half an hour because I'd get pulled over for some bullshit interaction with a cop. I became an expert on potential moving violations. Did you know if you have a light, say an aftermarket fog light, installed on your vehicle it must work even if it wasn't ever factory equipment? I do now.
The Gramma car never got stopped despite being wildly more capable of spirted driving. Never. Completely invisible to cops.
The most rediculous event was getting a written warning for excessive acceleration onto a highway. In a car that could barely get out of its own way.
And I'm a whitish looking guy, it must be hell for people who look more indigenous where they can't just change up what they are driving.
posted by Mitheral at 2:22 PM on June 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
That must be in the dirty tricks chapter of the Police Academy manual, along with "Stop resisting" and "I was in fear of my life. They've done that to me too, more than once, Dip flash, but only when I'm driving my beat up work truck, never in my decent looking car.
posted by ambulocetus at 3:26 PM on June 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by ambulocetus at 3:26 PM on June 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
A New Zealand youth was shot dead by Colorado police after he rang up for help with a mental health panic attack.
Compensation pending.
Sounds like the USA has a systemic problem with police brutality.
posted by Narrative_Historian at 1:11 AM on June 5, 2023
Compensation pending.
Sounds like the USA has a systemic problem with police brutality.
posted by Narrative_Historian at 1:11 AM on June 5, 2023
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