I had a sinking feeling...
December 31, 2011 10:57 AM   Subscribe

 
That rope of thorns through the tongue must have ruined your whole day.
posted by stinkycheese at 11:01 AM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


Eh, ith noth tho baa.
posted by BitterOldPunk at 11:08 AM on December 31, 2011 [21 favorites]


Maybe I've been under a rock for a bit, but I haven't noticed any 2012 media hysteria leading up to the new year. I will take this as progress.
posted by hanoixan at 11:13 AM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


Yeah, perhaps I'm sheltered. I've yet to hear a person seriously assert that the world is probably going to end in 2012. Mostly people seem to bring it up in an effort to be somehow ironic.
posted by resiny at 11:16 AM on December 31, 2011


Listening to this guy's voice gives me the same feeling I get when I hear Ira Glass or Radiolab. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to the shitter.
posted by ReeMonster at 11:16 AM on December 31, 2011


The Mayans ended their calendars this year because they knew that everyone would have iPhones instead.
posted by dhartung at 11:24 AM on December 31, 2011 [3 favorites]


Sure, make jokey comments. Eventually these guys who predict the end of the world will be right, so don't come crying to me.
posted by weapons-grade pandemonium at 11:28 AM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


William S. Burroughs had a theory that the Mayan calendar was less a method of prediction than of control by the priestly class and nobility of the rest of Mayan society, and that the 2012 "end date" didn't indicate the "end of the world" but rather the obsolescence of the current Mayan socio-religious system, thus requiring the creation of a new method of controlling the underclass.

I realize it has about as much scientific backing as the "WORLD'S GOING TO END AND/OR MAYAN SPACE MONSTERS ARE GOING TO LAND" theories being touted by various new age and conspiracy types, but aesthetically, at least, I like it a whole lot more.
posted by infinitywaltz at 11:29 AM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


I think it isn't all over the media because it's not supposed to happen until December. I'm pretty sure it will be everywhere in the fall.

Speaking of which, I saw a show on National Geographic where they interviewed this guy who runs an apocalypse survival construction company. They were building their second $20 million "ark" which looked like a bare metal submarine of some sort. This is, of course, in addition to their primary business of converting former ballistic missile silos into subterranean apartment complexes.

I really like the idea that the extraordinarily wealthy are starting to think they need to buy arks. I really wonder what kind of person would spend $20 million on one.

Of course, 2012 is effectively the Mayan equivalent of needing to buy a new desk calendar in that the cycle simply resets, but where's the fun in that?
posted by feloniousmonk at 11:31 AM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


It's not the end of the world. It's the end of a cycle, of an era, of a way of existence.

The last time the Mayan calendar turned over was about 500 years ago. Right around the time Columbus landed in the Americas and everything that had been known for both the natives and the Europeans changed forever.

This time around, there are hints of change everywhere. The collapse of the global capitalist system, the emergence of Asia as a global power, the Arab Spring and the uprising of people across the globe...

Something is blowing in the wind. I don't think the transition will be easy (as it wasn't easy 500 years ago), but whatever comes next will be what comes next, and it will be different from what we have now.
posted by hippybear at 11:32 AM on December 31, 2011 [7 favorites]


posted by hippybear

Intentionally ironic?
posted by resiny at 11:38 AM on December 31, 2011


I find any idea that the world is going to end silly. Not because I think the world is going to continue forever, but because they all say it's going to happen at once. One giant thing. And then everything's gone. It just seems more plausible to me that we'll have a steady, or maybe even steep down-cline, plateau at rock-bottom, and start all over again.
posted by FirstMateKate at 11:58 AM on December 31, 2011


Tau Wedel already explained this.

The last time the Mayan calendar turned over was about 500 years ago. Right around the time Columbus landed in the Americas and everything that had been known for both the natives and the Europeans changed forever.

Let me put it this way... When have things not changed? There was no calendar flip when the atom bomb was invented, or when the Roman Empire fell, or when man moved into agrarian societies.

Calendars are created by man. The universe is not a man and doesn't care.
posted by cmoj at 12:00 PM on December 31, 2011 [12 favorites]


For all your world-ending speculation needs!

The continents video that linked at the end of this video was fun. Maybe could use less Minecraft, though.
posted by curious nu at 12:03 PM on December 31, 2011


The collapse of the global capitalist system

A pretend collapse resulting in unprecedented reinforcement of said system.

the emergence of Asia as a global power

Has it ever not been?

the Arab Spring

Possibly the least dramatic event to have ever happened in the Middle East.

the uprising of people across the globe

As ever.


Sky remains up.
posted by Sys Rq at 12:05 PM on December 31, 2011


The collapse of the global capitalist system

A pretend collapse resulting in unprecedented reinforcement of said system.


In case you haven't been paying attention to the news lately, the collapse is still underway.

the emergence of Asia as a global power

Has it ever not been?


China and India were both either closed societies or subjugated for quite a while, and neither of them has really seen the kind of global influence they're currently enjoying before the past 20 years or so.

the Arab Spring

Possibly the least dramatic event to have ever happened in the Middle East.


The least dramatic? Really? Please point me toward several more dramatic events in the Middle East which aren't either dictated from above by outside powers or don't have implications about the structure of power in the region moving from dictators toward democratic rule.

the uprising of people across the globe

As ever.


The rise of the power of the masses to affect change in their lives is a relatively recent one.

You're free to debunk the idea of the Mayan calendar meaning anything all you want (and I don't actually believe in it), but you make broad dismissive statements about processes which are currently in motion and have not come to an end yet. I'd like it if you actually provided food for thought and not just pithy nonsense as a response. Dialogue is welcome -- what you've done here doesn't afford it at all.
posted by hippybear at 12:16 PM on December 31, 2011


I, personally, feel pretty good. Fine, really.
posted by maxwelton at 12:19 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


Really, I think the world should be put out of it's misery.
posted by hellojed at 12:24 PM on December 31, 2011


If you haven't seen the film 2012, do yourself the favor of not watching it.
posted by resiny at 12:24 PM on December 31, 2011 [3 favorites]


I'd like it if you actually provided food for thought and not just pithy nonsense as a response. Dialogue is welcome -- what you've done here doesn't afford it at all.

Meh. Garbage in, garbage out. Show how the things you cite are omens of the apocalypse, and then I'll get back to you.
posted by Sys Rq at 12:26 PM on December 31, 2011


That tango is the background music in my favorite workplace timekiller, Taberinos. Slightly disorienting to hear it in another context.
posted by carsonb at 12:33 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


Only three hundred fifty-five more days of this shit to go.
posted by RakDaddy at 12:55 PM on December 31, 2011 [2 favorites]


Sys Rq nowhere did hippybear say it was the apocalypse. That is your misinterpretation.

It's not the end of the world. It's the end of a cycle, of an era, of a way of existence......it will be different from what we have now.
posted by yoga at 1:13 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


Show how the things you cite are omens of the apocalypse, and then I'll get back to you.

Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit? Or did you come into this thread with preconceived notions of what people are going to say and then look without actually reading for comments which support your notions and then go about trashing them?

I specifically said "it's not the end of the world". Right there. In my comment. Really, I did.
posted by hippybear at 1:43 PM on December 31, 2011




Alright.

It's the end of a cycle, of an era, of a way of existence......it will be different from what we have now.

This is a statement so broad as to be meaningless. This can be said of this minute in relation to the next. You can define an era however you like, and so make one end at any given time. Of course the future is going to be different from how things are now because every subsequent time has been different from all of the times before it. That's what the future is.
posted by cmoj at 1:51 PM on December 31, 2011


Personally, I am just using this as an excuse to ignore my department's three-year planning document.
posted by GenjiandProust at 2:01 PM on December 31, 2011 [2 favorites]


As someone who's spent a good amount of time with people who take 2012 way too seriously, I haven't been looking forward to a year of Mayan calendar fever. It's barely January and psychic mediums representing the Pleiadeans, Sirians and Galactic Council are already covering their asses with vague disclaimers about the ascension such as: "December 21st is not the end; really it is just a continuation of all that has transpired [...] Will you all be transformed into peace-loving entities? Probably not." Straight from the Sedona Journal of Emergence! Now if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to planning my "You Were Wrong!" party for December 22nd.
posted by Lorin at 2:23 PM on December 31, 2011 [2 favorites]


Sys Rq may be a bit rude, but he's also right. The world is constantly undergoing changes, irrespective of particular calendar dates. The end of the Ottoman Empire, the opening up of Japan, the American Civil War, Henry Ford's factory, the Wright Brothers, World War II...there's a constant litany of change throughout world history, and trying to tie change to an arbitrary point is just ridiculous.
posted by happyroach at 2:24 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


Lorin, don't forget that the conversion from the Gregorian to the Julian calendar! What we thought was 2012 was really 2015! I think that's what happened with Nibiru at least.
posted by feloniousmonk at 2:41 PM on December 31, 2011


Sorry, I love the conspiracy theory stuff as a modern version of Greek mythology. (The gods capriciously raining down lightning bolts upon the masses from Mount Olympus has become the greys randomly abducting people and spiriting them back to the secret underground base at Dulce.)
posted by feloniousmonk at 2:44 PM on December 31, 2011 [2 favorites]


Who am I to judge, I own a copy of the Sedona Journal of Emergence.
posted by Lorin at 2:46 PM on December 31, 2011


Lovely interrobang usage.
posted by triceryclops at 3:14 PM on December 31, 2011


You might want to pay attention to that 'Planet X' conjecture....
posted by Kronos_to_Earth at 3:33 PM on December 31, 2011


Hippybear, I'm curious, what is your strategy for dealing with potential confirmation bias? What do you use that could falsify your theories? What kind of change needs to happen to prove your assumption correct and wrong if it doesn't happen? What's going to stop you, as many others have done in the past, from simply changing the date later once nothing happens.

To be honest, for me, life is so amazingly unpredictable. I'm not sure why you would want to make it boring by trying to force your present notions on the future. It seems restricting and the definition of closed-mindedness. Not living in the moment and setting up expectations.
posted by Knigel at 3:38 PM on December 31, 2011


It seems pretty clear to me that hippybear's comment was more along the lines of "isn't it an interesting coincidence that big things have happened when the long cycle has turned over in the past?" rather than a defense of apocalyptic conspiracy theory. I'm not really sure where the inquisition is coming from here.
posted by feloniousmonk at 3:59 PM on December 31, 2011 [5 favorites]


Hippybear, I'm curious, what is your strategy for dealing with potential confirmation bias? What do you use that could falsify your theories? What kind of change needs to happen to prove your assumption correct and wrong if it doesn't happen? What's going to stop you, as many others have done in the past, from simply changing the date later once nothing happens.

Okay, since people seem to actually want to engage on this topic....

Please go back and read the comment I made initially in this thread. In it, I state that the last time the Mayan calendar reached the end of an epoch, it was right around 1492, when Columbus landed in the New World and changed everything for both the natives here and the Europeans. These changes took a while to manifest, but involved everything from dietary changes for everyone involved to genocide and mass migration to entire ecosystem changes. (Did you know there were no earthworms in the Americas before Europeans got here?)

Those who believe that the turning of the Mayan calendar may indicate something is going to shift aren't looking at a specific date. Instead, they're looking toward a macro-view surrounding the date of the turning, understanding that whatever new may be coming along will be the product of developments over time leading toward the shift, which will eventually turn into something new for humanity on the planet.

Now, have I said anything about a specific date? Have I tried to make any actual predictions about what the nature of the new epoch will be or when we'll finally be cognizant of its manifestation?

No, I have not.

The turning of the Mayan calendar isn't about a specific date, it's about large shifts in global consciousness and approach to living and understanding. Just like the Columbian expedition to India was the product of first contact with China and Asia and the growth of an entrepreneurial class within the monarchist system of Europe which led to the desire of foreign product to bring to market, whatever path of change we may be on right now likely had its seed in some earlier development in our society.

Perhaps it's the rise of capitalism as the fundamental economic approach which is currently undergoing huge challenges to its existence. Perhaps it's the rise of the internet and the first truly globally connected culture in the history of humankind. Perhaps its the increasing global population combined with the emergence of disease vectors which could spread easily and quickly due to world-wide travel being fast and easy and relatively cheap. Perhaps it's the alignment of the stars and the awakening of Cthulhu from his icy, watery bed. Ia! Ia!

Anyway, I know people have been looking around and pointing at X, Y, and Z and saying that all this is indicative of Something New throughout history. And this really isn't any different. There's just this thing, this calendar which is without a doubt going to end its present cycle and go into a new one. And the coincidence that the last time it happened, truly everything changed, especially for those who developed it in the first place.

Perhaps such a marker is irrelevant. Most likely it is. But if we can get beyond all this "the world is going to rip itself apart and we will watch John Cusack watch it happen" bullshit, we might find that there IS change afoot of some monumental sort. Although it's likely NOT to happen exactly on Dec 21, 2012, and it's likely NOT to be apparent that the change has happened until after we're already deep in the middle of it. But maybe the approach and passing of this date will provide the collective unconscious with the permission it needs to really push over into something new. Whatever that may be.

I'm not saying I believe any of this stuff, but it's an interesting lens through which to view history.
posted by hippybear at 4:13 PM on December 31, 2011 [6 favorites]


I don't know if you actually answered my question.

Also, would you say that it is equally probable that, if there is a change, we will devolve instead of evolve? If this is so, isn't it a useless theory of prediction?
posted by Knigel at 4:25 PM on December 31, 2011


I don't know if you actually answered my question.

I don't know if you asked a question which is possible to answer. Potential confirmation bias? About a nebulous woo-woo theory of history based on an ancient calendar system which has coincidentally meshed with events in the past?

Anyway, it's not a useless theory of prediction. It's a concept and a lens, nothing more. If you're seeking some kind of scientific deconstruction of it from me, you're going to be waiting a long time. I bet until maybe Dec 21, 2512. Maybe by then the epoch will have changed enough to provide an answer to such an odd question to a fluffy statement about this kind of topic.

Anyway, devolution is change, just like evolution. If the entire economic system of the western world collapses and we enter a Giantly Great Depression on a global scale, that'll be devolution, but it will also definitely be change.

Better stock your pantry!
posted by hippybear at 4:33 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


The turning of the Mayan calendar isn't about a specific date, it's about large shifts in global consciousness and approach to living and understanding.

It's an odometer rolling around to 000000.

Also, devolution is not what you think it is.
posted by Sys Rq at 4:36 PM on December 31, 2011


Huh. I had no idea that word had a specific governmental definition. It has other definitions, too.
posted by hippybear at 4:43 PM on December 31, 2011


devolution
posted by Knigel at 4:45 PM on December 31, 2011


Hippybear: "If you're seeking some kind of scientific deconstruction of it from me, you're going to be waiting a long time."

Why? It seems that this is exactly the situation for the tools available to us. I'm getting a sense of you believing in this woo, but not actually wanting to commit. I feel as if you are advocating it as if it were credible while also trying to say that you don't really believe in it. You're spending a lot of time defending the theory, but still won't commit to it. You are making direct claims such as "Something is blowing in the wind." after which you claim it's just a lens and not a predictive theory. Really, how do you know anything is blowing in the wind? We might be brains in jars stranded in stasis, a unmoving time. Everything *might* stay exactly the same in our world. If we're going to say things are going to change, that's fine, they always change. What makes this woo theory interesting to you? Why do you think it's a worthwhile lens?

Should I be afraid to brush my teeth because many bad things happened when I did? Am I responsible for the Japanese Earthquake?

You're confusing me Hippybear, and I'd like to sort it out. I am interested in the 2012 woo, not because of the predictions, but because I can do some informal research into why people believe strange things. I like the psychology of it all.
posted by Knigel at 5:15 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


I'm getting a sense of you believing in this woo, but not actually wanting to commit. I feel as if you are advocating it as if it were credible while also trying to say that you don't really believe in it. You're spending a lot of time defending the theory, but still won't commit to it.

You're "getting a sense"? You "feel as if"? Sounds like you're using some kind of psychic ESP powers there.

Look, I'm a person who is very comfortable being of two minds in the world. I'm pretty much scientific-existentialist in my outlook, but I do rituals around the solar holidays and specific lunar events. I don't try to reconcile my worldview with my impulses toward spiritual expression. They both are. They both work for me. Why should I exclude one for the sake of the other?

Seriously, if you're the type of person who is even entertaining such ideas as feeling like brushing your teeth causes earthquakes, you need to talk to someone other than me. Because I have no answers, and suspect that perhaps you need to cut back on or increase your meds.

But don't look to me to sort out your confusion. I'm not confused at all. I operate within the world as it exists, and I seek out poetic lenses through which to experience the world. They aren't in conflict at all, and they make my life richer while not deluding me as to the true nature of existence.

Perhaps that's not a mindset which you can grok. Okay. I will remain ungrokkable to you. Don't try to pin me down into a narrow world in which I feel uncomfortable. I know how I live my life. If you want to have real conversations about this, I suggest we take it to MeMail, because I feel like you're attacking me personally for being something you are uncomfortable with, and I'd rather address that in a less public forum.
posted by hippybear at 5:33 PM on December 31, 2011 [7 favorites]


Ugh. The Mayan 2012 is silly in a lot of ways, but this guy's smug condescension forced my hand to close that tab after about 20 seconds.
posted by zardoz at 5:47 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


I'm on the move, so can't respond to all. But, no, there is no personal attack. I am specifically attacking your ideas and irrational statements. What I sense comes from my interpretation of what you wrote, no esp. I grok you, and your statements, but I'm upgroking them you might be comfortable with your personal spirituality. That's cool. But your making weird factual claims on a public forum. I'm asking you questions to better understand your thinking.
posted by Knigel at 5:51 PM on December 31, 2011


I've made no factual claims at all. If you've taken anything I've written as fact, either I've failed as a writer of you've failed as a reader.
posted by hippybear at 5:53 PM on December 31, 2011


Luckily the factual statements and claims are evidence that I am not a bad reader. I am, but not in this case.
posted by Knigel at 5:58 PM on December 31, 2011


Yeah, I'm done with you. MeMail me if you want to continue this.
posted by hippybear at 6:03 PM on December 31, 2011


Metafilter: this guy's smug condescension forced my hand to close that tab after about 20 seconds.
posted by benito.strauss at 6:08 PM on December 31, 2011


Needs more cowbell.
posted by twidget at 6:28 PM on December 31, 2011


Mod note: Knigel, please do take this debate out of the thread.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 6:49 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


hippybear: ... the last time the Mayan calendar reached the end of an epoch, it was right around 1492, when Columbus landed in the New World and changed everything for both the natives here and the Europeans.

Wikipedia:
Long Count ---- Gregorian date
13.0.0.0.0 ---- August 11, 3114 BCE
1.0.0.0.0 ---- November 13, 2720 BCE
2.0.0.0.0 ---- February 16, 2325 BCE
3.0.0.0.0 ---- May 21, 1931 BCE
4.0.0.0.0 ---- August 23, 1537 BCE
5.0.0.0.0 ---- November 26, 1143 BCE
6.0.0.0.0 ---- February 28, 748 BCE
7.0.0.0.0 ---- June 3, 354 BCE
8.0.0.0.0 ---- September 5, 41 CE
9.0.0.0.0 ---- December 9, 435
10.0.0.0.0 ---- March 13, 830
11.0.0.0.0 ---- June 15, 1224
12.0.0.0.0 ---- September 18, 1618
13.0.0.0.0 ---- December 21, 2012
14.0.0.0.0 ---- March 26, 2407
15.0.0.0.0 ---- June 28, 2801
16.0.0.0.0 ---- October 1, 3195
17.0.0.0.0 ---- January 3, 3590
18.0.0.0.0 ---- April 7, 3984
19.0.0.0.0 ---- July 11, 4378
[read the Mayan dates as B'ak'tun . K'atun . Tun . Winal . K'in]


hippybear: I'm not confused at all.
posted by fredludd at 8:10 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


fredludd: well, cool. I stand corrected. I had been told (although had not done any scholarship upon it) that the Mayan calendar ran in 500 year cycles. Apparently that's not true.

So, the last time it turned over was right around the time of Shakespeare, the King James Bible, and Jamestown...

And the time before that was the Crusades and the Magna Carta...

And back around the 8.0.0.0.0 turning was the crucifixion of Jesus of Nazareth....

Hey, I don't believe in this stuff... but it's an interesting lens through which to view history, isn't it?
posted by hippybear at 8:38 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


The history of end-of-the-world predictions suggests that people are really bad at predicting the end of the world.

Either that, or they're constantly looking for more excuses to have a really big party.
posted by Twang at 8:52 PM on December 31, 2011


hippybear: "Did you know there were no earthworms in the Americas before Europeans got here?"

Citation?
posted by exphysicist345 at 9:12 PM on December 31, 2011


Citation?

I first heard about this during a Fresh Air interview with the author of 1493, but it can be cross-references with National Geographic and this other site.

Apparently there is one bit of forest around the Great Lakes in the US which remains earthworm free, and people are striving to maintain it as such in order to preserve and study the ecosystems which were here before the Europeans arrived.
posted by hippybear at 9:36 PM on December 31, 2011 [1 favorite]


*cross-referenced
posted by hippybear at 9:37 PM on December 31, 2011


Wikipedia says that about 33% of North America's eearthworms are "exotic/introduced", probably from Europe on or around September 18, 1618 (Long Count 12.0.0.0.0)
posted by fredludd at 9:40 PM on December 31, 2011 [2 favorites]


(Okay, so it's not that there were NO earthworms, but they weren't present in a lot of North America until they were brought here by Europeans.)
posted by hippybear at 9:40 PM on December 31, 2011


fredludd: your framing is excellent. :)
posted by hippybear at 9:42 PM on December 31, 2011


in contrast to my spelling (eearthworms?)
posted by fredludd at 9:46 PM on December 31, 2011


Listening to this guy's voice gives me the same feeling I get when I hear Ira Glass or Radiolab.

And the style is very similar to Lawrence Lessing's web presentations.
posted by danep at 4:05 AM on January 1, 2012


Its Aztec, people! The first stone thingy they show is Aztec, not Mayan. Its one of the most recognizable precolumbian artifacts found in Mexico.
posted by Omon Ra at 5:48 AM on January 1, 2012


I know y'all love to scoff at prophecy, but mark my words! In 100 years comes the palindrome!
posted by Goofyy at 7:05 AM on January 1, 2012


Hummagumma: "put him in...THE PALINDROME!"
Crowd of Filthies: “PAL-IN-DROME! PAL-IN-DROME! PAL-IN-DROME!"
posted by happyroach at 8:46 AM on January 1, 2012


I know y'all love to scoff at prophecy, but mark my words! In 100 years comes the palindrome!

Warning: 2112 will seem like it goes on for a year, but it'll really only be 20 minutes.
posted by Sys Rq at 11:03 AM on January 1, 2012


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