Some rural markets and towns even experienced a 55% decline post-plague
August 21, 2017 9:57 PM Subscribe
A new study of annual to multiannual levels of lead in the Alpine glacier, Colle Gnifetti, in the Swiss-Italian Alps provides further validation of the calamitous character of the plague and the accompanying events in the 14th century. These new hard-core data demonstrates the impact which the Black Death had on society and economy.
The graph seems to be in roughly the same range, but there's an increase in the frequency of peaks and valleys that might indicate greater concentrations (since it's there more often when they take a sample) starting around 1700. But the frequency seems to increase gradually over time anyway, so maybe that's got more to do with the way they take measurements.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:28 PM on August 21, 2017
posted by Kevin Street at 11:28 PM on August 21, 2017
I noticed the change in sampling frequency too. Perhaps due to uniformly sampling an ice core that has been compressed over time?
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 12:53 AM on August 22, 2017
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 12:53 AM on August 22, 2017
What's the second downward dip, about half the size of the Black Death dip, in the late 1400s?
posted by clawsoon at 4:06 AM on August 22, 2017
posted by clawsoon at 4:06 AM on August 22, 2017
Mitheral: IE: there is definitely an up tick before abatement starts but nothing like approaching the increase in metal production.
According to this random person on the Internet, ice cores in Greenland show a much larger Industrial Revolution increase. (And a much larger fall after the end of the Roman Empire.) Maybe there's a local mine nearby whose output dominates these Alpine glacier samples?
posted by clawsoon at 4:20 AM on August 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
According to this random person on the Internet, ice cores in Greenland show a much larger Industrial Revolution increase. (And a much larger fall after the end of the Roman Empire.) Maybe there's a local mine nearby whose output dominates these Alpine glacier samples?
posted by clawsoon at 4:20 AM on August 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
The full paper is linked and has answers to some of the questions people are asking. I was curious about the second dip in the late 1400s too. The paper says
To me the most important conclusion in the paper is
posted by Nelson at 7:58 AM on August 22, 2017 [5 favorites]
a second severe drop corresponds to the period 1460–65 C.E. Historical records show that British mining activities declined drastically at this time due to market oversupply, probably linked to another series of epidemics that affected Britain, as well as lower demand due to an economic downturnThe fact this second dip is almost as pronounced as the Black Death dip suggests to me that the plague itself is not the full explanation for the drop in lead levels. Or rather the plague was a precipitating event, but really lead production / consumption in the European economy was unstable and subject to perturbation by at least two different external events.
To me the most important conclusion in the paper is
the study also demonstrates that the hitherto “accepted levels” of atmospheric lead characterised as “natural” background, is mistaken.I guess we've never had a clear understanding of "how much lead is in the air if humans aren't putting it there?". This paper sets a sort of upper bound on that number and I gather it's lower than previously expected. That changes the target we aim for as we work now to remove lead pollution.
posted by Nelson at 7:58 AM on August 22, 2017 [5 favorites]
What's the second downward dip, about half the size of the Black Death dip, in the late 1400s?
I don't have an a definitive answer for you, but I do recall that the plague tended to recur in cycles of approximately 20 years, all the way into the late 17th century. Outbreaks generally weren't as bad as that first round in the 1340s, but did vary rather a lot in severity.
It was one of the reasons it was so devastating—each time a younger generation got old enough to have kids, wham! another outbreak. The knock-on effect to the population was devastating. Whole swathes of Europe just vanished under new forest growth as villages and farms were abandoned.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:55 AM on August 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
I don't have an a definitive answer for you, but I do recall that the plague tended to recur in cycles of approximately 20 years, all the way into the late 17th century. Outbreaks generally weren't as bad as that first round in the 1340s, but did vary rather a lot in severity.
It was one of the reasons it was so devastating—each time a younger generation got old enough to have kids, wham! another outbreak. The knock-on effect to the population was devastating. Whole swathes of Europe just vanished under new forest growth as villages and farms were abandoned.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:55 AM on August 22, 2017 [1 favorite]
I'm also surprised that the industrial revolution and the uptake of leaded fuel in particular don't make a giant spike.
What is the mechanism or process that moves lead from the mine to the glacier? Could it be that later mining/smelting techniques were just (probably accidentally, through scale and efficiency improvements) cleaner?
posted by Western Infidels at 7:24 AM on August 23, 2017 [1 favorite]
What is the mechanism or process that moves lead from the mine to the glacier? Could it be that later mining/smelting techniques were just (probably accidentally, through scale and efficiency improvements) cleaner?
posted by Western Infidels at 7:24 AM on August 23, 2017 [1 favorite]
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posted by Mitheral at 10:15 PM on August 21, 2017 [1 favorite]