The S-Files
July 17, 2023 10:37 AM Subscribe
IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES—118th Cong., 1st Sess. [S. 2226]
To authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2024 for military activities of the Department of Defense, for military construction, and for defense activities of the Department of Energy, to prescribe military personnel strengths for such fiscal year, and for other purposes.
AMENDMENT intended to be proposed by Mr. SCHUMER (for himself, Mr. ROUNDS, Mr. RUBIO, and Mrs. GILLIBRAND)
Viz: At the appropriate place, insert the following:
TITLE I—UNIDENTIFIED ANOMALOUS PHENOMENA DISCLOSURE
This title may be cited as the "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Disclosure Act of 2023"
Reuters: Senators move to require release of US government UFO records
---
An outline of the amendment, which arguably contains some of the absolutely wildest shit ever printed in dry congressional legalese:
Sec. 01. Short Title: Ensures the bill does what it says on the tin.
Sec. 02. Findings, Declarations, and Purposes: Declares Congress's factual findings that underlie the bill. It emphasizes the need for all federal records related to UAPs to be preserved, centralized, and disclosed to the public. It also underlines the need to create an enforceable, independent, and accountable process for the public disclosure of such records. Intriguingly, it suggests that there are existing records that have not been declassified due to deficiencies in FOIA as well as "overbroad interpretation of transclassified foreign nuclear information".
Sec. 03. Definitions: Hoo boy:
Sec. 05. Review, Identification, Transmission to the National Archives, and Public Disclosure of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records by Government Offices: Describes the responsibilities of government offices in identifying, organizing, and transmitting UAP records to the Archives for inclusion in the collection, with specific deadlines and defined chains of custody.
Sec. 06. Grounds for Postponement of Public Disclosure of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records: Specifies the conditions under which the public disclosure of UAP records can be postponed -- violations of military security, whistleblower safety, personally-identifying information, etc.
Sec. 07. Establishment and Powers of the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records Review Board: Establishes the UAP Records Review Board as an independent agency. The President will appoint nine Senate-confirmed citizens to the Review Board (including a scientist, an economist, a historian, and a sociologist), who will be tasked with overseeing the review, archiving, and public disclosure of government records relating to UAPs and ruling on any requests to postpone disclosure. Strangely, this section designates a "UAP Disclosure Foundation" that is hitherto unmentioned anywhere else prior to the amendment's publication.
Sec. 08. Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records Review Board Personnel: Defines the staffing, compensation, and qualifications of the Review Board, including an Executive Director who "has had no previous or current involvement with any legacy program or controlling authority relating to the collection, exploitation, or reverse engineering of technologies of unknown origin or the examination of biological evidence of living or deceased non-human intelligence."
Sec. 09. Review of Records by the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records Review Board: Lays ouy the Review Board's timeline for reviewing records. Within 90 days of appointment, the Board must publish a schedule for reviewing all UAP records. The review of these records must begin no later than 180 days after enactment. The Board is required to periodically publish a revised schedule for the review and inclusion of any subsequently discovered records. The Board will direct all UAP records to be transmitted to the Archives and disclosed to the public unless there is "clear and convincing evidence" that the record is either not of a UAP or that it is not disclosable per Sec. 06. Also describes a "Controlled Disclosure Campaign" for planning the announcement of any "recovered technologies of unknown origin, and biological evidence for non-human intelligence" that held back under Sec. 6 -- subject to presidential approval.
Sec. 10. Disclosure of Recovered Technologies of Unknown Origin and Biological Evidence of Non-Human Intelligence: Grants the federal government eminent domain over "any and all recovered technologies of unknown origin and biological evidence of non-human intelligence that may be controlled by private persons or entities in the interests of the public good." The Board will consider whether any material constitutes as such, whether it qualifies for postponement of disclosure, and what changes the government should make to facilitate full disclosure.
Sec. 11. Disclosure of Other Materials and Additional Study: Gives the Review Board access (via the Attorney General) to any UAP-related information held under seal by a court or grand jury, and directs the Secretary of State to assist with acquiring any related information held by foreign governments.
Sec. 12. Rules of Construction: Clarifies that nothing precludes judicial review of actions taken under the bill. It also denies revoking the existing authority of the President, executive agencies, Senate, House, or any other federal body to publicly disclose records they possess.
Sec. 13. Termination of Effect of Title: Sets a timeline for winding down the bill following completion of its provisions.
Sec. 14. Authorization of Appropriations: Authorizes the appropriation of $20,000,000 for FY 2024 to carry out the provisions of the bill.
Sec. 15. Severability: Boilerplate stating that if any provision is held invalid, the remainder shall not be affected by the invalidation.
---
UAP Guide: A 15-minute introduction to unidentified anomalous phenomena
More background on the unfolding UAP story:
A House Oversight hearing on UAP witnesses is expected July 26th, with a Senate hearing featuring whistleblower David Grusch soon to follow.
To authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2024 for military activities of the Department of Defense, for military construction, and for defense activities of the Department of Energy, to prescribe military personnel strengths for such fiscal year, and for other purposes.
AMENDMENT intended to be proposed by Mr. SCHUMER (for himself, Mr. ROUNDS, Mr. RUBIO, and Mrs. GILLIBRAND)
Viz: At the appropriate place, insert the following:
TITLE I—UNIDENTIFIED ANOMALOUS PHENOMENA DISCLOSURE
This title may be cited as the "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Disclosure Act of 2023"
Reuters: Senators move to require release of US government UFO records
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, has teamed up with Senator Mike Rounds, a Republican, in leading an effort to force the disclosure of information relating to what the government officially calls "unidentified anomalous phenomena," or UAPs. Their 64-page proposal is modeled after a 1992 U.S. law spelling out the handling of records related to the 1963 assassination of President John Kennedy. They plan to offer the measure as an amendment to sweeping legislation moving through Congress that would authorize U.S. defense funding for the fiscal year beginning on Oct. 1.Politico: The House and Senate are using their annual defense bills to get the government to share more information about UFOs.
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) got a narrower provision tucked into a sweeping defense policy bill that passed the House on Friday. The Tennessee Republican’s measure requires Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to declassify DOD records and documents “relating to publicly known sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena that do not reveal sources, methods, or otherwise compromise the national security of the United States.” DOD would have 180 days from the defense bill becoming law to declassify the reports.The Debrief: The ‘UAP Disclosure Act of 2023’: What We Know About Chuck Schumer and the Senate’s New Push for UAP Transparency
---
An outline of the amendment, which arguably contains some of the absolutely wildest shit ever printed in dry congressional legalese:
Sec. 01. Short Title: Ensures the bill does what it says on the tin.
Sec. 02. Findings, Declarations, and Purposes: Declares Congress's factual findings that underlie the bill. It emphasizes the need for all federal records related to UAPs to be preserved, centralized, and disclosed to the public. It also underlines the need to create an enforceable, independent, and accountable process for the public disclosure of such records. Intriguingly, it suggests that there are existing records that have not been declassified due to deficiencies in FOIA as well as "overbroad interpretation of transclassified foreign nuclear information".
Sec. 03. Definitions: Hoo boy:
close observer: "anyone who has come into close proximity to unidentified anomalous phenomena or non-human intelligence."Sec. 04. Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records Collection at the National Archives and Records Administration: Mandates the establishment of a UAP Records Collection at NARA in order to centralize and organize records related to reported sightings, and outlines an exhaustive process for collecting and reporting these records. It also prohibits their destruction, alteration, or mutilation.
legacy program: "all Federal, State, and local government, commercial industry, academic, and private sector endeavors to collect, exploit, or reverse engineer technologies of unknown origin or examine biological evidence of living or deceased non-human intelligence that pre-dates the date of the enactment of this Act."
non-human intelligence: "any sentient intelligent non-human lifeform regardless of nature or ultimate origin that may be presumed responsible for unidentified anomalous phenomena or of which the Federal Government has become aware." [Note the conspicuous absence of the term "extraterrestrial", which makes space for all kinds of exotic theories.]
technologies of unknown origin: "any materials or meta-materials, ejecta, crash debris, mechanisms, machinery, equipment, assemblies or sub-assemblies, engineering models or processes, damaged or intact aerospace vehicles, and damaged or intact ocean-surface and undersea craft associated with unidentified anomalous phenomena or incorporating science and technology that lacks prosaic attribution or known means of human manufacture."
unidentified anomalous phenomena: "any object operating or judged capable of operating in outer space, the atmosphere, ocean surfaces, or undersea lacking prosaic attribution due to performance characteristics and properties not previously known to be achievable based upon commonly accepted physical principles. Unidentified anomalous phenomena are differentiated from both attributed and temporarily non-attributed objects by one or more of the following observables:
- Instantaneous acceleration absent apparent inertia.
- Hypersonic velocity absent a thermal signature and sonic shockwave.
- Transmedium (such as space-to-ground and air-to-undersea) travel.
- Positive lift contrary to known aerodynamic principles.
- Multispectral signature control.
- Physical or invasive biological effects to close observers and the environment."
Sec. 05. Review, Identification, Transmission to the National Archives, and Public Disclosure of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records by Government Offices: Describes the responsibilities of government offices in identifying, organizing, and transmitting UAP records to the Archives for inclusion in the collection, with specific deadlines and defined chains of custody.
Sec. 06. Grounds for Postponement of Public Disclosure of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records: Specifies the conditions under which the public disclosure of UAP records can be postponed -- violations of military security, whistleblower safety, personally-identifying information, etc.
Sec. 07. Establishment and Powers of the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records Review Board: Establishes the UAP Records Review Board as an independent agency. The President will appoint nine Senate-confirmed citizens to the Review Board (including a scientist, an economist, a historian, and a sociologist), who will be tasked with overseeing the review, archiving, and public disclosure of government records relating to UAPs and ruling on any requests to postpone disclosure. Strangely, this section designates a "UAP Disclosure Foundation" that is hitherto unmentioned anywhere else prior to the amendment's publication.
Sec. 08. Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records Review Board Personnel: Defines the staffing, compensation, and qualifications of the Review Board, including an Executive Director who "has had no previous or current involvement with any legacy program or controlling authority relating to the collection, exploitation, or reverse engineering of technologies of unknown origin or the examination of biological evidence of living or deceased non-human intelligence."
Sec. 09. Review of Records by the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Records Review Board: Lays ouy the Review Board's timeline for reviewing records. Within 90 days of appointment, the Board must publish a schedule for reviewing all UAP records. The review of these records must begin no later than 180 days after enactment. The Board is required to periodically publish a revised schedule for the review and inclusion of any subsequently discovered records. The Board will direct all UAP records to be transmitted to the Archives and disclosed to the public unless there is "clear and convincing evidence" that the record is either not of a UAP or that it is not disclosable per Sec. 06. Also describes a "Controlled Disclosure Campaign" for planning the announcement of any "recovered technologies of unknown origin, and biological evidence for non-human intelligence" that held back under Sec. 6 -- subject to presidential approval.
Sec. 10. Disclosure of Recovered Technologies of Unknown Origin and Biological Evidence of Non-Human Intelligence: Grants the federal government eminent domain over "any and all recovered technologies of unknown origin and biological evidence of non-human intelligence that may be controlled by private persons or entities in the interests of the public good." The Board will consider whether any material constitutes as such, whether it qualifies for postponement of disclosure, and what changes the government should make to facilitate full disclosure.
Sec. 11. Disclosure of Other Materials and Additional Study: Gives the Review Board access (via the Attorney General) to any UAP-related information held under seal by a court or grand jury, and directs the Secretary of State to assist with acquiring any related information held by foreign governments.
Sec. 12. Rules of Construction: Clarifies that nothing precludes judicial review of actions taken under the bill. It also denies revoking the existing authority of the President, executive agencies, Senate, House, or any other federal body to publicly disclose records they possess.
Sec. 13. Termination of Effect of Title: Sets a timeline for winding down the bill following completion of its provisions.
Sec. 14. Authorization of Appropriations: Authorizes the appropriation of $20,000,000 for FY 2024 to carry out the provisions of the bill.
Sec. 15. Severability: Boilerplate stating that if any provision is held invalid, the remainder shall not be affected by the invalidation.
---
UAP Guide: A 15-minute introduction to unidentified anomalous phenomena
More background on the unfolding UAP story:
NYTimes (December 2017): Glowing Auras and ‘Black Money’: The Pentagon’s Mysterious U.F.O. ProgramAlternative theories: Radar reflectors - Von Neumann probes - Vallée's theories - The psychosocial hypothesis
NYMag (December 2019): Navy Pilot Who Filmed the ‘Tic Tac’ UFO Speaks: ‘It Wasn’t Behaving by the Normal Laws of Physics’
The Guardian (April 2020): Pentagon officially releases 'UFO' videos
Dept. of Defense (July 2022): DoD Announces the Establishment of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution OfficeThe mission of the AARO will be to synchronize efforts across the Department of Defense, and with other U.S. federal departments and agencies, to detect, identify and attribute objects of interest in, on or near military installations, operating areas, training areas, special use airspace and other areas of interest, and, as necessary, to mitigate any associated threats to safety of operations and national security. This includes anomalous, unidentified space, airborne, submerged and transmedium objects.Forbes (February 13th): If ‘High-Altitude Objects’ Are Not Balloons Or Aircraft, What The Heck Are They? White House Press Briefing Keeps It Vague
News.com.au (May 20th): Stanford professor says aliens are ‘100 per cent’ on earth, US is ‘reverse-engineering downed UFOs’“The creation of a whistleblower program specifically that allows people from within who, I’m going to say this, have been working on the reverse-engineering programs, reverse-engineering of objects, so that they can come in and break their oaths but specifically just to talk to Congress and give that information in classified settings.”The Hill (June 2nd): US military has been observing ‘metallic orbs’ making extraordinary ‘maneuvers’
He added, “And the most recent one that happened was just last weekend and it created quite a hornet’s nest in Washington.”At a historic NASA briefing on UFOs — “unidentified anomalous phenomena” (UAP) in government parlance — a key Defense Department official made a striking disclosure. Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick, director of a new UAP analysis office, stated that U.S. military personnel are observing “metallic orbs” “all over the world.”Video clip from the above briefing, including common characteristics and DoD footage of an example
More declassified Pentagon footage from the NASA event
The Debrief (June 6th): Intelligence Officials Say U.S. Has Retrieved Craft of Non-Human OriginA former intelligence official turned whistleblower has given Congress and the Intelligence Community Inspector General extensive classified information about deeply covert programs that he says possess retrieved intact and partially intact craft of non-human origin.NewsNation (June 26th): Rubio: Recent UFO whistleblower isn’t the only one
The information, he says, has been illegally withheld from Congress, and he filed a complaint alleging that he suffered illegal retaliation for his confidential disclosures, reported here for the first time.
Other intelligence officials, both active and retired, with knowledge of these programs through their work in various agencies, have independently provided similar, corroborating information, both on and off the record.Whistleblower David Grusch is not the only high-level government official to come forward with claims about UFOs, according to Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.
Rubio told NewsNation on Monday that he has heard from firsthand witnesses in “high positions in our government” to some of the claims made by Grusch.
A House Oversight hearing on UAP witnesses is expected July 26th, with a Senate hearing featuring whistleblower David Grusch soon to follow.
Congratulations to skinwalker ranch bullshit guy I guess, and everyone who likes wasting time on the nonsense of grifters.
posted by Artw at 10:45 AM on July 17, 2023 [27 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:45 AM on July 17, 2023 [27 favorites]
modeled after a 1992 U.S. law spelling out the handling of records related to the 1963 assassination of President John Kennedy
Seems legit, timely, and foolproof.
posted by riverlife at 10:51 AM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
Seems legit, timely, and foolproof.
posted by riverlife at 10:51 AM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
GOP is gonna lose their shit if the ETs turn out to be enby.
posted by The Bellman at 10:53 AM on July 17, 2023 [48 favorites]
posted by The Bellman at 10:53 AM on July 17, 2023 [48 favorites]
If this was the Roman Senate, they'd declare it bullshittius maximus.
"Only circuses, no bread."
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 10:53 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
"Only circuses, no bread."
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 10:53 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
If this was the Roman Senate, they'd declare it bullshittius maximus.
An interesting discussion on how to best to translate the word bullshit into Latin.
posted by fairmettle at 10:56 AM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
An interesting discussion on how to best to translate the word bullshit into Latin.
posted by fairmettle at 10:56 AM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
"NON-HUMAN INTELLIGENCE.—The term ‘‘non-human intelligence’’ means any sentient intelligent non-human lifeform regardless of nature or ultimate origin that may be presumed responsible for unidentified anomalous phenomena or of which the Federal Government has become aware."
posted by mecran01 at 10:57 AM on July 17, 2023
posted by mecran01 at 10:57 AM on July 17, 2023
An interesting discussion on how to best to translate the word bullshit into Latin.
This is the level of pedantry I come to Metafilter for.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:58 AM on July 17, 2023 [51 favorites]
This is the level of pedantry I come to Metafilter for.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:58 AM on July 17, 2023 [51 favorites]
i would like to see this act renamed to include unexplained phenomena as well. the 'double-U AP disclosure act.'
cardi's law
posted by logicpunk at 11:00 AM on July 17, 2023 [20 favorites]
cardi's law
posted by logicpunk at 11:00 AM on July 17, 2023 [20 favorites]
that do not reveal sources, methods, or otherwise compromise the national security of the United States.
That seems pretty easy to avoid then.
I of course believe that ETs visiting in UFOs serves the same cultural purpose as medieval angel mythology. Powerful beings from beyond that will either solve our problems or bring woe on our enemies.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 11:00 AM on July 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
That seems pretty easy to avoid then.
I of course believe that ETs visiting in UFOs serves the same cultural purpose as medieval angel mythology. Powerful beings from beyond that will either solve our problems or bring woe on our enemies.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 11:00 AM on July 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
“NON-HUMAN INTELLIGENCE - fancy bullshit only, nothing boring and real like it being a bunch of Chinese balloons”
posted by Artw at 11:01 AM on July 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:01 AM on July 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
"nothing boring and real like it being a bunch of Chinese balloons"
That sure disappeared from the headlines quickly, didn't it? I feel like it merits, dunno, a lot more public scrutiny and explanation than I think we've seen so far.
posted by jzb at 11:10 AM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
That sure disappeared from the headlines quickly, didn't it? I feel like it merits, dunno, a lot more public scrutiny and explanation than I think we've seen so far.
posted by jzb at 11:10 AM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
I suppose logic demands I grant this is a waste of time money, but I have to say I find it a LOT more fun and less upsetting than many of the other ways folks have found to spin their wheels over nothing lately.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 11:12 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 11:12 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
I shouldn't be surprised at how credulous people are, but I am. I wonder if all the stress global society has been under is leading to an extended period of rolling waves of faddish bullshit.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 11:12 AM on July 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 11:12 AM on July 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
So this David Grusch guy is full of shit right? This feels like a con to me, but I have no evidence besides my gut feeling that sorry, no, there are no visitors from space.
posted by dis_integration at 11:14 AM on July 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 11:14 AM on July 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
Instantaneous acceleration absent apparent inertia.
Hypersonic velocity absent a thermal signature and sonic shockwave.
Transmedium (such as space-to-ground and air-to-undersea) travel.
Positive lift contrary to known aerodynamic principles.
Multispectral signature control.
Physical or invasive biological effects to close observers and the environment."
I love that this is basically a list of indicators that the phenomena are rooted in misperception.
posted by Scattercat at 11:14 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
Hypersonic velocity absent a thermal signature and sonic shockwave.
Transmedium (such as space-to-ground and air-to-undersea) travel.
Positive lift contrary to known aerodynamic principles.
Multispectral signature control.
Physical or invasive biological effects to close observers and the environment."
I love that this is basically a list of indicators that the phenomena are rooted in misperception.
posted by Scattercat at 11:14 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
🎶phenomena
Doot dooooo, dooo doo do
Phenomena
Doot doo doo do🎶
posted by azpenguin at 11:18 AM on July 17, 2023 [48 favorites]
Doot dooooo, dooo doo do
Phenomena
Doot doo doo do🎶
posted by azpenguin at 11:18 AM on July 17, 2023 [48 favorites]
They have time to fight for this, but no time to fight for abortion or gender care rights for soldiers and their families.
Charitably, they prioritize fighting for this so they can distract you from the fact that they're not fighting for abortion or gender care rights.
It is possible that there is a roundabout way of exposing some weird national budgetary boondoggle here but so few of the names in here are people of good faith that nah.
The speed of light sucks, y'all. The universe is unfathomably vast and the speed of light sucks. Maybe some clever people in one of the world's various militaries some new way of moving around in-atmosphere but none of it is coming from other star systems. It's just not.
posted by mhoye at 11:18 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
Charitably, they prioritize fighting for this so they can distract you from the fact that they're not fighting for abortion or gender care rights.
It is possible that there is a roundabout way of exposing some weird national budgetary boondoggle here but so few of the names in here are people of good faith that nah.
The speed of light sucks, y'all. The universe is unfathomably vast and the speed of light sucks. Maybe some clever people in one of the world's various militaries some new way of moving around in-atmosphere but none of it is coming from other star systems. It's just not.
posted by mhoye at 11:18 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
They have time to fight for this, but no time to fight for abortion or gender care rights for soldiers and their families.
A distraction from outlawing abortion and contraception nationwide hopefully. The time used can be subtracted from Hunter's laptop investigation and Joe's impeachment hearings. I hope they find something interesting because most Republicans don't have a framework for this kind of magic apart from the divine.
posted by Brian B. at 11:21 AM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
A distraction from outlawing abortion and contraception nationwide hopefully. The time used can be subtracted from Hunter's laptop investigation and Joe's impeachment hearings. I hope they find something interesting because most Republicans don't have a framework for this kind of magic apart from the divine.
posted by Brian B. at 11:21 AM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
The speed of light sucks, y'all
yeah thats the thing about this. if we have been communicating with aliens since like the 40s (and it wasn't just post-nuclear age cold war paranoia), then why don't we have access to the fancy FTL tech, or the infinite energy sources that would be required by such tech. And the answer isn't "the evil corporations are keeping it secret". At least someone involved would see it as a way to become rich as croesus.
posted by dis_integration at 11:22 AM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
yeah thats the thing about this. if we have been communicating with aliens since like the 40s (and it wasn't just post-nuclear age cold war paranoia), then why don't we have access to the fancy FTL tech, or the infinite energy sources that would be required by such tech. And the answer isn't "the evil corporations are keeping it secret". At least someone involved would see it as a way to become rich as croesus.
posted by dis_integration at 11:22 AM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
That sure disappeared from the headlines quickly, didn't it? I feel like it merits, dunno, a lot more public scrutiny and explanation than I think we've seen so far.
I am no shit surprised as hell that this whole realm of bullshit managed to brush up against something real and vastly less surprised that their reaction was to become completely uninterested in it. Having these jokers around quite possibly delayed the identification of a real threat.
posted by Artw at 11:26 AM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
I am no shit surprised as hell that this whole realm of bullshit managed to brush up against something real and vastly less surprised that their reaction was to become completely uninterested in it. Having these jokers around quite possibly delayed the identification of a real threat.
posted by Artw at 11:26 AM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
The comments on the New York Magazine article linked here are really something.
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:27 AM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:27 AM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
UAP? Yeah, you know me.
posted by slogger at 11:27 AM on July 17, 2023 [17 favorites]
posted by slogger at 11:27 AM on July 17, 2023 [17 favorites]
If this was the Roman Senate, they'd declare it bullshittius maximus.
"Only circuses, no bread."
Bread. Lots and lotsa bread. Government funding, don't cha know.
When are the dang aliens going to stop hogging all the hovercraft?
posted by BlueHorse at 11:39 AM on July 17, 2023
"Only circuses, no bread."
Bread. Lots and lotsa bread. Government funding, don't cha know.
When are the dang aliens going to stop hogging all the hovercraft?
posted by BlueHorse at 11:39 AM on July 17, 2023
"If you don't keep me in office to pass these tax cuts for the rich and keep abortion illegal, you'll never hear the truth about these UFOs". - every GOP Congressperson.
posted by parmanparman at 11:40 AM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by parmanparman at 11:40 AM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
This is the level of pedantry I come to Metafilter for.
For which I . . . oh, forget it.
posted by The Bellman at 11:48 AM on July 17, 2023 [26 favorites]
For which I . . . oh, forget it.
posted by The Bellman at 11:48 AM on July 17, 2023 [26 favorites]
Rhaomi, thank you for the awesome FPP, in which you invested considerable effort. I appreciate it. It may be BS but it is fascinating BS to me unlike, well, lots of other nonsense.
posted by Bella Donna at 11:52 AM on July 17, 2023 [30 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 11:52 AM on July 17, 2023 [30 favorites]
Could be we're the circus, too – as entertainment for the space aliens. Imagine having high-quality video of all that WW2 combat action last century.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:53 AM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:53 AM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
>may be BS but it is fascinating BS
my take, too, in some sort of weighted Bayesian sense . . . ie. "Big if true"
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:54 AM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
my take, too, in some sort of weighted Bayesian sense . . . ie. "Big if true"
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:54 AM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
Welp, I guess I'll be the lone wolf on Team Aliens. I thought the Navy videos from 2017 were compelling and intriguing. Looking forward to see if anything productive comes from the hearings on July 26th.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 11:55 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 11:55 AM on July 17, 2023 [18 favorites]
Oh for fuck's sake.
I don't usually link to Thunderf00t's videos because although he is a bright guy he's entirely too pleased with himself about that, which grates, and he has more than a touch of engineer's disease when dinging stuff on which he has no expertise, which is occasionally. But on this subject he is right on the money and his repeated deployment of the duck sound effect is inspirational.
Military Whistleblower: US has Captured UFOs!!!!: BUSTED! (Thunderf00t, YouTube, 51m35s)
posted by flabdablet at 11:59 AM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
I don't usually link to Thunderf00t's videos because although he is a bright guy he's entirely too pleased with himself about that, which grates, and he has more than a touch of engineer's disease when dinging stuff on which he has no expertise, which is occasionally. But on this subject he is right on the money and his repeated deployment of the duck sound effect is inspirational.
Military Whistleblower: US has Captured UFOs!!!!: BUSTED! (Thunderf00t, YouTube, 51m35s)
posted by flabdablet at 11:59 AM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Even the former leader of your United States of America, James Earl Carter Jr., thought he saw a UFO once. But it's been proven he only saw the planet Venus.
posted by AndrewInDC at 12:00 PM on July 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by AndrewInDC at 12:00 PM on July 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
The Romulan Senate denies this terrestrial stance.
posted by clavdivs at 12:00 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 12:00 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Aliens looks like the next silly but useful distraction, after the AI existential risk stupidity dies down. It'd be dangerous if people paid attention to what's really going on.
Also, we learned in the previous thread that all this conversation occurred now thanks to a billionaire conspiracy nut, not some dumb US psyop or whatever. Yet, the distraction part need not be some intentional psyop, just what people desire vs real shit.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:03 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Also, we learned in the previous thread that all this conversation occurred now thanks to a billionaire conspiracy nut, not some dumb US psyop or whatever. Yet, the distraction part need not be some intentional psyop, just what people desire vs real shit.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:03 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Yeah, you know me.
You've gotta know that every pilot in the U.S. military apparatus is absolutely as ready as anyone has ever been for anything to hear the phrase "You downed a UAP?".
posted by mhoye at 12:05 PM on July 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
You've gotta know that every pilot in the U.S. military apparatus is absolutely as ready as anyone has ever been for anything to hear the phrase "You downed a UAP?".
posted by mhoye at 12:05 PM on July 17, 2023 [11 favorites]
The UAP investigation in the military was run by a bunch of true believers including hiring as its outside scientific advisor Travis Taylor, who regularly appears on Ancient Aliens and Secrets of Skinwalker Ranch promoting easily debunked claims.
posted by interogative mood at 12:09 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 12:09 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
In saner times (if they ever existed) I'd be all "cool - let's take a look".
In these times I dread the amount of conspiracy bullshit that will spin off of this / because of this / in spite of this.
And if there are aliens on earth - I hope they bought ecological repair kits. If you were stranded ona desert island earth with the humans, what three items would you bring?
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:12 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
In these times I dread the amount of conspiracy bullshit that will spin off of this / because of this / in spite of this.
And if there are aliens on earth - I hope they bought ecological repair kits. If you were stranded on
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:12 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
An interesting discussion on how to best to translate the word bullshit into Latin.
This is the level of pedantry I come to Metafilter for.
Metafilter, inside the burning "it's fine" room, arguing Latin grammar.
posted by NorthernLite at 12:15 PM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
This is the level of pedantry I come to Metafilter for.
Metafilter, inside the burning "it's fine" room, arguing Latin grammar.
posted by NorthernLite at 12:15 PM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
And if there are aliens on earth - I hope they bought ecological repair kits. If you were stranded on a desert island earth with the humans, what three items would you bring.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:12 PM on July 17 [+] [!]
I'd run for the hills/galaxy. Those gun-toting monkeys look dangerous.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 12:18 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:12 PM on July 17 [+] [!]
I'd run for the hills/galaxy. Those gun-toting monkeys look dangerous.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 12:18 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
a person i know who works closely with Congress said that this looks like an intentional distraction By congress from the outside but in truth, all of the fucking congresspeople are legitimately, absurdly, unhingedly obsessed with this UFO shit to the total disregard of everything else. The person I know is ready to tear their every last hair out in complete frustration and disgust.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 12:22 PM on July 17, 2023 [51 favorites]
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 12:22 PM on July 17, 2023 [51 favorites]
a person i know who works closely with Congress said that this looks like an intentional distraction By congress from the outside but in truth, all of the fucking congresspeople are legitimately, absurdly, unhingedly obsessed with this UFO shit to the total disregard of everything else. The person I know is ready to tear their every last hair out in complete frustration and disgust.
This is hilariously depressing, or depressingly hilariously, but I definitely buy it.
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:25 PM on July 17, 2023 [23 favorites]
This is hilariously depressing, or depressingly hilariously, but I definitely buy it.
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:25 PM on July 17, 2023 [23 favorites]
I (still) want to believe.
posted by vverse23 at 12:29 PM on July 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by vverse23 at 12:29 PM on July 17, 2023 [10 favorites]
Space is huge. Vast. The distances between solar systems - let alone systems with habitable planets - is mind boggling. It’s pretty funny that we assume that we’re worth the trip for some alien civilization. I mean, I’m happy to be proven wrong, but the odds that aliens have made it here are not good at all.
posted by azpenguin at 12:31 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by azpenguin at 12:31 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Isn't the point to help distract the congressmen then? I mean they definitely want to avoid talking about climate, etc.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:32 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by jeffburdges at 12:32 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
An actually sensible prime directive:
posted by jeffburdges at 12:33 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Initiate communication only with species who can demonstrably control their economic growth and live within their own biosphere's limits. Do not communicate with any species which still lives in an exponentially expansionary phase, or especially carbon fuel burning phase.“No civilization can possibly survive to an interstellar spacefaring phase unless it limits its numbers” (and consumption) - Carl Sagan
All violations are punishable as per genocide, since an expansionary species even observing more advanced technology could give them enough energy that they violate more planetary boundaries and then they wind up going extinct.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:33 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
The idea that this phenomena is from aliens is completely ridiculous and I don't know why anyone would believe that story. It's obviously the result of Bigfoot.
posted by downtohisturtles at 12:36 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by downtohisturtles at 12:36 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
.-'~~~~'-.
. .-~’\__/ \__/`~-. .
.-~ (oo) (oo) ~-.
(_____//~~\\//~~\\______)
_.-~` `~-._
/O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O=O\ *
\___________________________________/.
\x x x x x x x/ `.
. * \x_x_x_x_x_x/. ' . ___ .
`. `. .'| \'.
`. . `. | \ / |
' . * '.___.'
posted by leotrotsky at 12:57 PM on July 17, 2023 [24 favorites] Bella Donna: "Rhaomi, thank you for the awesome FPP, in which you invested considerable effort. I appreciate it. It may be BS but it is fascinating BS to me unlike, well, lots of other nonsense."
Thanks! I find the knee-jerk mockery disappointing but unsurprising -- this topic had been mired in hoaxsters and grift and woo for so long that it's really difficult to take seriously. But there does seem to be a hard kernel of something Weird going on lately. It's one thing when this stuff was scattered folk tales and easily-doctored tabloid photos -- something very different is afoot when it's official footage from the Pentagon.
And there are so many things that don't add up. If it's just a misperception, how are they showing up on multiple independent sensors? If Grusch is a bullshitter, why is he risking prison time for lying under oath (and why do multiple other officials back him up?) If it's a political snow job, why are leaders from both parties taking part -- along with high-level military intelligence agencies from several countries?
I'm not saying it's aliens, but it'saliens something fucky enough that it needs to be thoroughly investigated. Maybe it's secret Chinese drone technology, or a rare weather phenomenon like ball lightning, or some exotic form of high-altitude life that's eluded detection until now. Hell, maybe it's a mass delusion after all (which should probably be identified and dealt with if so!). But even such non-ET outcomes are worth finding out about -- and in the meantime, it's nice to indulge in some harmless, starry-eyed speculation about being on the verge of the largest paradigm shift in human history.
posted by Rhaomi at 12:59 PM on July 17, 2023 [51 favorites]
Thanks! I find the knee-jerk mockery disappointing but unsurprising -- this topic had been mired in hoaxsters and grift and woo for so long that it's really difficult to take seriously. But there does seem to be a hard kernel of something Weird going on lately. It's one thing when this stuff was scattered folk tales and easily-doctored tabloid photos -- something very different is afoot when it's official footage from the Pentagon.
And there are so many things that don't add up. If it's just a misperception, how are they showing up on multiple independent sensors? If Grusch is a bullshitter, why is he risking prison time for lying under oath (and why do multiple other officials back him up?) If it's a political snow job, why are leaders from both parties taking part -- along with high-level military intelligence agencies from several countries?
I'm not saying it's aliens, but it's
posted by Rhaomi at 12:59 PM on July 17, 2023 [51 favorites]
if we have been communicating with aliens since like the 40s (and it wasn't just post-nuclear age cold war paranoia), then why don't we have access to...Maybe the aliens have declined to allow us access to it.
I hope they bought ecological repair kitsMaybe they have, and they like it a lot hotter than we do.
NB: I'm not arguing in favor of these things.
posted by Flunkie at 1:01 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Re: ASCII art: I thought I saw a UFO, but it turned out to just be Jar Jar Binks.
posted by Flunkie at 1:04 PM on July 17, 2023
posted by Flunkie at 1:04 PM on July 17, 2023
I already picture the day when everything makes perfect sense. Aliens come and say that they will transport anyone who wants to go all the way to paradise. People line up and they all leave. Everything is fine.
posted by Brian B. at 1:05 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Brian B. at 1:05 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Re: ASCII art: I thought I saw a UFO, but it turned out to just be Jar Jar Binks.
Grimace shake.
posted by Artw at 1:06 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Grimace shake.
posted by Artw at 1:06 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm not saying it's aliens
Sign of the fucking times is what it is.
It used to be that only people with no understanding whatsoever of optics or geometry or scale or statistics would entertain a strong belief in any of this stuff. Seems that's a shitload of people right now.
posted by flabdablet at 1:08 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Sign of the fucking times is what it is.
It used to be that only people with no understanding whatsoever of optics or geometry or scale or statistics would entertain a strong belief in any of this stuff. Seems that's a shitload of people right now.
posted by flabdablet at 1:08 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
I find it interesting that all the phenomena that are mentioned are aquatic or aerial (or interstellar), thus giving the Morlocks/Molemen a free pass. But, probably couldn't pass the bill without bipartisan support and there's probably significant Morlock representation in the Republican caucus, so...
posted by LionIndex at 1:14 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by LionIndex at 1:14 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I thought we'd already discovered that "aliens" are what happens when the simulation gets hacked.
posted by betweenthebars at 1:17 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by betweenthebars at 1:17 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
UFOs used to be cool before they became woke.
posted by Chuffy at 1:26 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Chuffy at 1:26 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Isn't the point to help distract the congressmen then? I mean they definitely want to avoid talking about climate, etc.
I'm just saying that it doesn't seem to be a cynical ploy on anyone's part that congress is obsessed with this. If they are fixating on this to avoid climate change it seems to be as unconscious a decision as anyone else might make.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:27 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'm just saying that it doesn't seem to be a cynical ploy on anyone's part that congress is obsessed with this. If they are fixating on this to avoid climate change it seems to be as unconscious a decision as anyone else might make.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:27 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
The eschatology of humanity’s ascendency to interstellar civilization just another version of the revelation of St John. Mars is the new Jerusalem and the chosen ones are the space colonists who will carry humanity to this new paradise. Sightings of aliens are no different than ghosts, fairies or angels.
One day in the future the last human will draw their breath on earth and the universe will quickly destroy all that we ever were, except for maybe some bit of some junk floating out there — but most of that will also be reduced to dust by radiation over a few millennia.
If there is some other intelligence out there they probably wont know we existed or through the distance have only the equivalent of glimpse at a few pixels from the image that was all of humanity and life on earth.
posted by interogative mood at 1:36 PM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
One day in the future the last human will draw their breath on earth and the universe will quickly destroy all that we ever were, except for maybe some bit of some junk floating out there — but most of that will also be reduced to dust by radiation over a few millennia.
If there is some other intelligence out there they probably wont know we existed or through the distance have only the equivalent of glimpse at a few pixels from the image that was all of humanity and life on earth.
posted by interogative mood at 1:36 PM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
It’s pretty funny that we assume that we’re worth the trip for some alien civilization.
We've spent billions of dollars sending space probes to places far less interesting than Earth hoping to find forms of life far stupider than us.
posted by swr at 1:39 PM on July 17, 2023 [16 favorites]
We've spent billions of dollars sending space probes to places far less interesting than Earth hoping to find forms of life far stupider than us.
posted by swr at 1:39 PM on July 17, 2023 [16 favorites]
Multicellular life was a mistake. A truly advanced alien civilization would say fuck this sentience bullshit, I want to be ocean sludge again and de-evolve themselves. The hard part is keeping this from happening over and over again.
posted by dephlogisticated at 1:54 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by dephlogisticated at 1:54 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
. . . forms of life far stupider than us.
Assumes facts not in evidence.
posted by The Bellman at 1:54 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Assumes facts not in evidence.
posted by The Bellman at 1:54 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I want to believe…
The Universe is just too big for us to be the only life out there.
Does seem like a distraction from bigger issues
posted by Windopaene at 2:13 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
The Universe is just too big for us to be the only life out there.
Does seem like a distraction from bigger issues
posted by Windopaene at 2:13 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
On reflection I don't know the procedures well enough to say whether this is a BIG investment of congressional time and resources, relative to anything else, or if it just has my attention so it seems like a lot. With all the weird high-profile rumors floating around from apparently career folks close to the investigative programs, "What the hell are you people even doing over there, exactly?" is probably a reasonable question for Congress to be asking.
If the answer is "Hiring the most credulous dipsticks who can string a sentence together and giving them titles that sound official" that's probably worth seeing the light of day. On the extraordinarily remote chance it's, "Poking alien artifacts with sticks," I suppose that should probably be public as well.
I find the most likely answer to be something like, "Testing weird camouflage for experimental drones," which they have good reason to keep close to their chest, and is why nobody wants to give a straight answer about it.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 2:15 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
If the answer is "Hiring the most credulous dipsticks who can string a sentence together and giving them titles that sound official" that's probably worth seeing the light of day. On the extraordinarily remote chance it's, "Poking alien artifacts with sticks," I suppose that should probably be public as well.
I find the most likely answer to be something like, "Testing weird camouflage for experimental drones," which they have good reason to keep close to their chest, and is why nobody wants to give a straight answer about it.
posted by Phobos the Space Potato at 2:15 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
The idea that this phenomena is from aliens is completely ridiculous and I don't know why anyone would believe that story. It's obviously the result of Bigfoot
Bigfoot... the alien robot. You really need to reacquaint yourself with the 1970s documentary series about Col. Austin.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:19 PM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
Bigfoot... the alien robot. You really need to reacquaint yourself with the 1970s documentary series about Col. Austin.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:19 PM on July 17, 2023 [7 favorites]
It’s pretty funny that we assume that we’re worth the trip for some alien civilization.
Humans routinely explored and conquered for slaves, gold, rubber, diamonds, salt, spices, fur and ivory. I doubt that raiders would want our literature or technology. We may fairly assume that air and water are commodities anywhere there is a market, and they are freely abundant here.
posted by Brian B. at 2:21 PM on July 17, 2023
Humans routinely explored and conquered for slaves, gold, rubber, diamonds, salt, spices, fur and ivory. I doubt that raiders would want our literature or technology. We may fairly assume that air and water are commodities anywhere there is a market, and they are freely abundant here.
posted by Brian B. at 2:21 PM on July 17, 2023
Which link is the main one for this post?
posted by amtho at 2:24 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by amtho at 2:24 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
It's primarily "about" the new Senate legislation, so the main link as such would probably be the bill text itself at the end of the lede, summarized after the jump. But it's a sprawling story, so most of the post is background stories or further context for individual phrases, so feel free to dive into whatever bit of hypertext piques your interest without feeling like you have to read every link.
posted by Rhaomi at 2:38 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Rhaomi at 2:38 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
We may fairly assume that air and water are commodities anywhere there is a market, and they are freely abundant here.
they're freely abundant in a lot of places - one might have to do some mining in extremely cold conditions, but if they're desperate enough to go around looking for water to transport home over vast distances, they'll mine it
i think this is really unlikely though
posted by pyramid termite at 2:41 PM on July 17, 2023
they're freely abundant in a lot of places - one might have to do some mining in extremely cold conditions, but if they're desperate enough to go around looking for water to transport home over vast distances, they'll mine it
i think this is really unlikely though
posted by pyramid termite at 2:41 PM on July 17, 2023
If they turn out to be Ferengi, I will remain skeptical. That is all.
posted by zooropa at 2:45 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by zooropa at 2:45 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
I like that Schumer's amendment is mostly about setting up a process for mandatory preservation and public disclosure of any relevant records ... and then there's section 10, which empowers the government to expropriate "any and all recovered technologies of unknown origin and biological evidence of non-human intelligence."
posted by Gerald Bostock at 2:48 PM on July 17, 2023
posted by Gerald Bostock at 2:48 PM on July 17, 2023
Things that would surprise me: Inexplicable biological remains of unknown origin being kept by the US government. Physical remnants of vehicles that contain materials or technology so far outside our own understanding, we are unable to even make sense of it.
Things that would not surprise me: A lot of videos and pictures and reports of UAPs. Some plane-like ships that we aren't 100% on where they came from. Maybe a blob-monster or two.
I tend towards being a believer (though more of the inter-dimensional than extra-terrestrial type), but I do think we are in a moment of planet-wide crisis where the thought of aliens coming to save the anointed few or at least getting us out of a jam of our own making sounds awfully tempting to a lot of people. That being said, I think it's fine to push for more transparency in government when it comes to these (and perhaps other!) issues and not necessarily some vast Republican Conspiracy to distract us from the world being on fire.
I think less likely than any revelations providing definitive answers, we will simply be left with more (and perhaps better) questions.
posted by StopMakingSense at 2:50 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Things that would not surprise me: A lot of videos and pictures and reports of UAPs. Some plane-like ships that we aren't 100% on where they came from. Maybe a blob-monster or two.
I tend towards being a believer (though more of the inter-dimensional than extra-terrestrial type), but I do think we are in a moment of planet-wide crisis where the thought of aliens coming to save the anointed few or at least getting us out of a jam of our own making sounds awfully tempting to a lot of people. That being said, I think it's fine to push for more transparency in government when it comes to these (and perhaps other!) issues and not necessarily some vast Republican Conspiracy to distract us from the world being on fire.
I think less likely than any revelations providing definitive answers, we will simply be left with more (and perhaps better) questions.
posted by StopMakingSense at 2:50 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm glad the stigma associated with reporting UAPs is starting to be addressed (according to the video debriefing, all UAPs must be reported and investigated). But I'm super skeptical of anything that Marco Rubio has his hand in (the 'whistle blower' who says alien stuff has been found).
posted by bluesky43 at 2:57 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by bluesky43 at 2:57 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
but if they're desperate enough to go around looking for water to transport home over vast distances
Not likely, but they would sell the claim as real estate.
posted by Brian B. at 3:27 PM on July 17, 2023
Not likely, but they would sell the claim as real estate.
posted by Brian B. at 3:27 PM on July 17, 2023
non-human intelligence: "any sentient intelligent non-human lifeform regardless of nature or ultimate origin that may be presumed responsible for unidentified anomalous phenomena or of which the Federal Government has become aware."
Is it deliberate that this definition is broad enough to include angels?
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 3:27 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Is it deliberate that this definition is broad enough to include angels?
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 3:27 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
This is all so fucking stupid.
posted by freakazoid at 3:31 PM on July 17, 2023 [25 favorites]
posted by freakazoid at 3:31 PM on July 17, 2023 [25 favorites]
We may fairly assume that air and water are commodities anywhere there is a market, and they are freely abundant here.
Europa has possibly twice as much water as Earth. The only thing notable about Earth is the abundance of life (and things like oil that originate from life): in terms of bulk material resources, we're living on an unremarkable rocky planet of the kind that you might find multiples of in any random solar system.
And while there would be a certain irony in aliens invading us for our oil, it's hard to imagine that their interstellar dreadnoughts run on diesel.
posted by Pyry at 3:38 PM on July 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
Europa has possibly twice as much water as Earth. The only thing notable about Earth is the abundance of life (and things like oil that originate from life): in terms of bulk material resources, we're living on an unremarkable rocky planet of the kind that you might find multiples of in any random solar system.
And while there would be a certain irony in aliens invading us for our oil, it's hard to imagine that their interstellar dreadnoughts run on diesel.
posted by Pyry at 3:38 PM on July 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
if we have been communicating with aliens since like the 40s (and it wasn't just post-nuclear age cold war paranoia), then why don't we have access to the fancy FTL tech,
Possible the aliens, if there are aliens, don't have FTL. It's at least possible we could someday construct machines that last thousands of years in interstellar space. Also possible we figure out how to hibernate/deep sleep/suspended animation people so they can travell for centuries and then be reanimated. Or maybe upload consciousness to computer. Or even strong AI. Coupled with projecable advances in space propulsion we could maybe visit other solar systems.
All seemingly more possible than FTL. It would also explain why the presence is limited, the aliens could only send a few hundred representatives.
So no alien FTL even if there are aliens because the aliens don't have FTL.
posted by Mitheral at 3:41 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Possible the aliens, if there are aliens, don't have FTL. It's at least possible we could someday construct machines that last thousands of years in interstellar space. Also possible we figure out how to hibernate/deep sleep/suspended animation people so they can travell for centuries and then be reanimated. Or maybe upload consciousness to computer. Or even strong AI. Coupled with projecable advances in space propulsion we could maybe visit other solar systems.
All seemingly more possible than FTL. It would also explain why the presence is limited, the aliens could only send a few hundred representatives.
So no alien FTL even if there are aliens because the aliens don't have FTL.
posted by Mitheral at 3:41 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
The only thing notable about Earth is the abundance of life
Exactly, and other life forms would be interested, see my real estate comment above. The thing that would make us so desirable for claiming would be if nobody else out there owns us yet.
posted by Brian B. at 3:52 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Exactly, and other life forms would be interested, see my real estate comment above. The thing that would make us so desirable for claiming would be if nobody else out there owns us yet.
posted by Brian B. at 3:52 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
IMMANENTIZE THE ESCHATON!
posted by chavenet at 3:52 PM on July 17, 2023 [15 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 3:52 PM on July 17, 2023 [15 favorites]
There is probably life elsewhere in the universe, even something equivalent to human civilization; but for all we know it is tens of thousands of lightyears away -- messages back and forth would take longer than the current timespan of recorded human history. The inverse square law and interference make any remote observations we might have extremely limited. We might detect that they have some kind of radio signals, but we won't be able to get enough data out of them to really decode them -- unless they send a deliberate message. And why would they send such a message when they look back at us they see 10,000 year old earth perhaps some signs of oxygen in the atmosphere but nothing to indicate intelligent life or our industrial civilization.
posted by interogative mood at 3:56 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:56 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I still posit it's ultraterrestrials (TV Tropes link) if anything. No FTL issues if that's the case.
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:56 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:56 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Re: Congress being distracted by this over more important issues, I was going to say something about walking and chewing gum at the same time, but I'm not sure how capable Congress is of that. In any case, I do think it's remarkable that we've got senators and representatives on the record in interviews talking about the importance of this issue. I don't know what "disclosure" is going to look like, and I don't want to hazard a guess as to what's going on, but it's worth noting that "non-human intelligence" doesn't necessarily mean "non-human intelligence from such a long distance away that it requires rewriting the laws of physics." Distance may not even be the proper thing to measure.
posted by emelenjr at 3:58 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by emelenjr at 3:58 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
BEST OF THE THOLIAN WEB.
posted by clavdivs at 4:37 PM on July 17, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 4:37 PM on July 17, 2023 [19 favorites]
The Universe is just too big for us to be the only life out there.
But also too big for any two civilizations to ever realistically communicate with each other, assuming that our understanding of physics is basically correct.
Also, the universe is perhaps not too big or too old for us to be the only technologically advanced life out there, at least in our galaxy.
In the grand scheme of things, the universe is quite young. Very small red dwarf stars can live for around 1 trillion years; the universe has been around for about one percent of that time. Assuming that such stars are just as capable of hosting life as ours (and I see no reason to assume otherwise), the vast majority of life that will ever exist will exist long after we are gone.
posted by nosewings at 4:40 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
But also too big for any two civilizations to ever realistically communicate with each other, assuming that our understanding of physics is basically correct.
Also, the universe is perhaps not too big or too old for us to be the only technologically advanced life out there, at least in our galaxy.
In the grand scheme of things, the universe is quite young. Very small red dwarf stars can live for around 1 trillion years; the universe has been around for about one percent of that time. Assuming that such stars are just as capable of hosting life as ours (and I see no reason to assume otherwise), the vast majority of life that will ever exist will exist long after we are gone.
posted by nosewings at 4:40 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Very Devo.
My whole life, I've just watched Congress just get stupider and stupider. It s all very Flowers for Algernon.
Right when the birds are going extinct, from lack of climate action, we re going to spend millions to misunderstand, in intricate detail, how videos of birds look like space ships.
posted by eustatic at 4:44 PM on July 17, 2023 [17 favorites]
My whole life, I've just watched Congress just get stupider and stupider. It s all very Flowers for Algernon.
Right when the birds are going extinct, from lack of climate action, we re going to spend millions to misunderstand, in intricate detail, how videos of birds look like space ships.
posted by eustatic at 4:44 PM on July 17, 2023 [17 favorites]
I mean, Von Neumann probes don’t seem impossible. Would comport with our current understanding of physics and our current metaphysical/mythical understanding that there is nothing special or unique about us humans …. Just jumped up sacks of meat made of stardust ….
posted by eagles123 at 4:52 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by eagles123 at 4:52 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Only this week a UFO was discovered in Western Australia
(Unidentified Floating Object in this case)
posted by onya at 4:56 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
(Unidentified Floating Object in this case)
posted by onya at 4:56 PM on July 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Speculation about whether intelligent alien life could possibly visit Earth is basically irrelevant to the question at hand, which is “if aliens DID visit Earth, would they choose to interact with this planet by mysteriously getting up to decades of occasional veiled airborne shenanigans in mostly just one country, producing no concrete evidence that has ever been made public but plenty of concrete evidence that has been incredibly well-concealed by some shadowy branch of our government, until now for some reason?” I think we all have to arrive at our own conclusions on that score.
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:59 PM on July 17, 2023 [19 favorites]
posted by showbiz_liz at 4:59 PM on July 17, 2023 [19 favorites]
if aliens DID visit Earth, would they choose to interact with this planet by mysteriously getting up to decades of occasional veiled airborne shenanigans in mostly just one country, producing no concrete evidence that has ever been made public but plenty of concrete evidence that has been incredibly well-concealed by some shadowy branch of our government, until now for some reason?
Maybe they have always been around but are just completely and totally uninterested in human life. They are out in the woods talking to trees and shit or something we don't understand, but because humans are so self important we think it has to be all about us.
More likely this is nothing, but still I like to pretend. Or, I want to believe, I guess.
posted by Literaryhero at 5:04 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Maybe they have always been around but are just completely and totally uninterested in human life. They are out in the woods talking to trees and shit or something we don't understand, but because humans are so self important we think it has to be all about us.
More likely this is nothing, but still I like to pretend. Or, I want to believe, I guess.
posted by Literaryhero at 5:04 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Like, is there life elsewhere in the universe? A hundred percent, just on statistics alone with the number of stars and planets and the apparent age/projected lifespan of the whole thing.
Are they here on this planet at this time? Absolutely not. The speed of light and the sheer amount of emptiness to cross makes that impossible, with the same statistics that make it almost certain that life appeared elsewhere.
Do we have pictures and footage of weird things that we don't recognize? Obviously. Anyone who's ever seen a sitting shape at night that turned out to be the Laundry Chair knows how that happened. It would be an interesting task to try to sort out what actually caused the anomalous images, but "aliens" is pretty much not on the list for possible sources.
posted by Scattercat at 5:05 PM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
Are they here on this planet at this time? Absolutely not. The speed of light and the sheer amount of emptiness to cross makes that impossible, with the same statistics that make it almost certain that life appeared elsewhere.
Do we have pictures and footage of weird things that we don't recognize? Obviously. Anyone who's ever seen a sitting shape at night that turned out to be the Laundry Chair knows how that happened. It would be an interesting task to try to sort out what actually caused the anomalous images, but "aliens" is pretty much not on the list for possible sources.
posted by Scattercat at 5:05 PM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
Von Neumann probes are basically self replicating robots, so they aren’t constrained by the limitations of human lifespans. We can’t build them with current tech, but they don’t break the laws of physics.
As for why an alien civilization would build them: Who knows? We humans do plenty of stuff for no readily apparent utilitarian reason.
How would we look to the gorillas or chimps we study?
posted by eagles123 at 5:18 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
As for why an alien civilization would build them: Who knows? We humans do plenty of stuff for no readily apparent utilitarian reason.
How would we look to the gorillas or chimps we study?
posted by eagles123 at 5:18 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
As for why an alien civilization would build them
Why did we send the golden record into the cosmos?
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:22 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Why did we send the golden record into the cosmos?
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:22 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
How would we look to the gorillas or chimps we study?
Generally like potential threats up until we prove we're harmless and/or sources of tasty food. Also like very awkward clumsy apes who don't have much common sense. (c.f. that video of the orangutan trying to save the man from the water who was in there to address a snake problem in the orang habitat.)
Von Neumann probes
Again, the argument isn't even "It's not possible for aliens to do things." It's that space is really, really, incomprehensibly, absurdly, monstrously, absolutely tit-fucking cataclysmically bonkers-ass big. Even if a hypothetical alien civilization with more advanced tech burned their entire star and every planet around it to ashes to build as many such probes as they could and sent them out in a bold mission of exploration like we do with our nudie pics and hydrogen porn, the odds of any one of them actually hitting us here is zero. Not "very low." Just "zero."
posted by Scattercat at 5:26 PM on July 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
Generally like potential threats up until we prove we're harmless and/or sources of tasty food. Also like very awkward clumsy apes who don't have much common sense. (c.f. that video of the orangutan trying to save the man from the water who was in there to address a snake problem in the orang habitat.)
Von Neumann probes
Again, the argument isn't even "It's not possible for aliens to do things." It's that space is really, really, incomprehensibly, absurdly, monstrously, absolutely tit-fucking cataclysmically bonkers-ass big. Even if a hypothetical alien civilization with more advanced tech burned their entire star and every planet around it to ashes to build as many such probes as they could and sent them out in a bold mission of exploration like we do with our nudie pics and hydrogen porn, the odds of any one of them actually hitting us here is zero. Not "very low." Just "zero."
posted by Scattercat at 5:26 PM on July 17, 2023 [9 favorites]
Presuming a random scattering, and unavailability of FTL communications, no? Not presuming a spacefaring Culture (:P) capable of more directed activity in response to some kind of assay and not laboring undering our temporal constraints. Whether in response to emissions or surveying.....um...potential habitat.
Just as we conjecture with our crude radio astronomy and what exo-ecology we can base on that, past the range of our satellites and rovers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:32 PM on July 17, 2023
Just as we conjecture with our crude radio astronomy and what exo-ecology we can base on that, past the range of our satellites and rovers.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:32 PM on July 17, 2023
I will grant that we have some thought experiments in the direction, but I'm fairly comfortable not assuming FTL anything is possible. So far everything we've tried has rammed into the speed limit.
So yeah, roughly random scattering, maybe aiming more for place where you're pretty sure there are exoplanets that might support life.
posted by Scattercat at 5:39 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
So yeah, roughly random scattering, maybe aiming more for place where you're pretty sure there are exoplanets that might support life.
posted by Scattercat at 5:39 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
You know, there a lot of people keeping track of near-earth objects, like these guys.
posted by SemiSalt at 5:56 PM on July 17, 2023
posted by SemiSalt at 5:56 PM on July 17, 2023
It s all very Flowers for Algernon.
Right when the birds are going extinct
Let me confidently stop you right there dear friend as everyone knows that birds are not real.
posted by riverlife at 6:04 PM on July 17, 2023 [14 favorites]
Right when the birds are going extinct
Let me confidently stop you right there dear friend as everyone knows that birds are not real.
posted by riverlife at 6:04 PM on July 17, 2023 [14 favorites]
Why did we send the golden record into the cosmos?
“i showed you my whalesong plz respond”
posted by dephlogisticated at 6:07 PM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
“i showed you my whalesong plz respond”
posted by dephlogisticated at 6:07 PM on July 17, 2023 [12 favorites]
How would we look to the gorillas or chimps we study?
I wonder how we are perceived by the North Sentinel Islanders.
posted by Mitheral at 6:25 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I wonder how we are perceived by the North Sentinel Islanders.
posted by Mitheral at 6:25 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
I did not expect to see “tit-fucking” on Metafilter today. Bravo.
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 7:10 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 7:10 PM on July 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
My two thoughts on the subject of extraterrestrial beings have been, for years:
The aliens are here, the governments' are hiding them, get over it.
and
I have heard that we have not had a nuclear war because the aliens won't allow it.
So I'm good with that.
posted by mmrtnt at 7:28 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
The aliens are here, the governments' are hiding them, get over it.
and
I have heard that we have not had a nuclear war because the aliens won't allow it.
So I'm good with that.
posted by mmrtnt at 7:28 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
I doubt anyone in Congress believes there UAPs are aliens, but they do believe that the Pentagon hasn’t been forthcoming about what they are, and that’s something Congress dislikes a lot.
posted by MattD at 7:42 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by MattD at 7:42 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Very peculiar indeed. The anecdote upthread which suggests that our Congress people are sincere in their concern over all this is fascinating.
You know, I've seen a UAP. It was a softball-sized ball of blue light hovering a few feet off the ground, and it passed an arm's length in front of me. I beheld it with the naked eye for several seconds before I lost track of it. It moved swiftly, though no faster than a hummingbird. Another person who was there with me saw it too. I believe this is what some folks call an "orb." If I'm not mistaken, they are associated with UFOs in the lore, while not being your classic flying saucer-style "craft" in themselves.
But perhaps this was actually a case of the elusive ball lightning, witnessed in the wild. (There was no thunderstorm in the vicinity, however.) I'm even willing to consider that it was the result of some sort auto-suggestion effect, given I had gone out seeking an encounter with the Weird. (I was young once. But be assured I was not under the influence of any substance at the time I witnessed the orb.)
It feels unlikely to me that these UAPs that have caught the attention of Congress are attributable to anything as straightforward as visitors from another planet. But I'm not quite ready to dismiss them outright as a nothingburger.
posted by Ana Kolou, Squirrel at 8:18 PM on July 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
You know, I've seen a UAP. It was a softball-sized ball of blue light hovering a few feet off the ground, and it passed an arm's length in front of me. I beheld it with the naked eye for several seconds before I lost track of it. It moved swiftly, though no faster than a hummingbird. Another person who was there with me saw it too. I believe this is what some folks call an "orb." If I'm not mistaken, they are associated with UFOs in the lore, while not being your classic flying saucer-style "craft" in themselves.
But perhaps this was actually a case of the elusive ball lightning, witnessed in the wild. (There was no thunderstorm in the vicinity, however.) I'm even willing to consider that it was the result of some sort auto-suggestion effect, given I had gone out seeking an encounter with the Weird. (I was young once. But be assured I was not under the influence of any substance at the time I witnessed the orb.)
It feels unlikely to me that these UAPs that have caught the attention of Congress are attributable to anything as straightforward as visitors from another planet. But I'm not quite ready to dismiss them outright as a nothingburger.
posted by Ana Kolou, Squirrel at 8:18 PM on July 17, 2023 [5 favorites]
Again, the argument isn't even "It's not possible for aliens to do things." It's that space is really, really, incomprehensibly, absurdly, monstrously, absolutely tit-fucking cataclysmically bonkers-ass big. Even if a hypothetical alien civilization with more advanced tech burned their entire star and every planet around it to ashes to build as many such probes as they could and sent them out in a bold mission of exploration like we do with our nudie pics and hydrogen porn, the odds of any one of them actually hitting us here is zero. Not "very low." Just "zero."
Just to play "devil's advocate": Space might be incomprensibly big in terms of human intuition, but its not unquantifiable. The nearest star is approximately 4.7 light years away, and a probe using the most advanced propulsion technoloy we've ever employed would take about 6,000 years to reach it. That's far too long in terms of human lifetimes but easily doable for a machine. Indeed, we could launch such a probe ourselves, but we haven't because we'd be long dead before the probe got to its destination.
But that's assuming our hypothetical aliens have cultural values similar to our own. Imagine a culture, perhaps only a century or two more advanced than ours, with some weird billionare who wanted to explore the stars. Maybe, like our current billionares, this alien billionaire thinks they can upload their consciousness into a machine so they could complete that exploration themselves. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong. Either way, they launch these slow ass self replicating probes. Even if each probe takes 100,000 years to reach another star, if the probes can manufacture other probes around that star to send to other nearby stars, then the probes could expand through space fairly quickly on galactic if not biological timescales.
I believe there is a paper out there that simulated the above scenerio, minus the meglomanical billionaire, which i added for flair and to provide relatable motivation. Remember, it doesn't matter whether the consciousness uploading is possible; the billionaire just has to think its possible... and have enough money to employ people smart enough to design and build devices that we probably could with perhaps a century's worth of research and work.
Is the above "scientifically" provable? Of course not. Then again, when does science meld into history? Do we really be believe we've concieved of everything possible in terms of motivation and culture even within our current scientific understanding? Like you said, the universe is incomprehensibly vast. Thus it is most likely both stranger and stupider than we could possibly imagine.
posted by eagles123 at 8:33 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Just to play "devil's advocate": Space might be incomprensibly big in terms of human intuition, but its not unquantifiable. The nearest star is approximately 4.7 light years away, and a probe using the most advanced propulsion technoloy we've ever employed would take about 6,000 years to reach it. That's far too long in terms of human lifetimes but easily doable for a machine. Indeed, we could launch such a probe ourselves, but we haven't because we'd be long dead before the probe got to its destination.
But that's assuming our hypothetical aliens have cultural values similar to our own. Imagine a culture, perhaps only a century or two more advanced than ours, with some weird billionare who wanted to explore the stars. Maybe, like our current billionares, this alien billionaire thinks they can upload their consciousness into a machine so they could complete that exploration themselves. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong. Either way, they launch these slow ass self replicating probes. Even if each probe takes 100,000 years to reach another star, if the probes can manufacture other probes around that star to send to other nearby stars, then the probes could expand through space fairly quickly on galactic if not biological timescales.
I believe there is a paper out there that simulated the above scenerio, minus the meglomanical billionaire, which i added for flair and to provide relatable motivation. Remember, it doesn't matter whether the consciousness uploading is possible; the billionaire just has to think its possible... and have enough money to employ people smart enough to design and build devices that we probably could with perhaps a century's worth of research and work.
Is the above "scientifically" provable? Of course not. Then again, when does science meld into history? Do we really be believe we've concieved of everything possible in terms of motivation and culture even within our current scientific understanding? Like you said, the universe is incomprehensibly vast. Thus it is most likely both stranger and stupider than we could possibly imagine.
posted by eagles123 at 8:33 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
20 million for this nonsense?
posted by GoblinHoney at 8:34 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by GoblinHoney at 8:34 PM on July 17, 2023 [2 favorites]
Idk y'all, I hoped we collectively had a better understanding the difference between 'very small numbers, like excruciatingly small, so small it's hard to understand ' and 'definitely fucking ZERO, and if you don't agree you must be dumb‽'!^m%%* '
Anyway, the odds are long but our longing is odd. I have no real horse in this fight but to lobby for an understanding that there's an important difference between zero and non-zero, or between infinity and really really big.
posted by SaltySalticid at 8:36 PM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
Anyway, the odds are long but our longing is odd. I have no real horse in this fight but to lobby for an understanding that there's an important difference between zero and non-zero, or between infinity and really really big.
posted by SaltySalticid at 8:36 PM on July 17, 2023 [8 favorites]
The chance that the skinwalker ranch dude has discovered for real aliens and this is not some scammy bullshit are, in fact, absolute zero.
posted by Artw at 8:39 PM on July 17, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:39 PM on July 17, 2023 [13 favorites]
assuming that our understanding of physics is basically correct
Given the willingness of so many to assert with such confidence that a bird soaring in a 40mph wind at 10,000 feet is a phenomenon incompatible with its laws, I put it to you that "our" understanding of physics is basically fucked.
posted by flabdablet at 8:45 PM on July 17, 2023
Given the willingness of so many to assert with such confidence that a bird soaring in a 40mph wind at 10,000 feet is a phenomenon incompatible with its laws, I put it to you that "our" understanding of physics is basically fucked.
posted by flabdablet at 8:45 PM on July 17, 2023
I believe there is a paper out there that simulated the above scenerio, minus the meglomanical billionaire, which i added for flair and to provide relatable motivation. Remember, it doesn't matter whether the consciousness uploading is possible; the billionaire just has to think its possible... and have enough money to employ people smart enough to design and build devices that we probably could with perhaps a century's worth of research and work.
I am pretty sure that the Drake equation does not account for the likelihood of sentient extraterrestrials having also invented capitalism. If it does, we are fucked by an extra order of magnitude.
posted by Mayor West at 10:50 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
I am pretty sure that the Drake equation does not account for the likelihood of sentient extraterrestrials having also invented capitalism. If it does, we are fucked by an extra order of magnitude.
posted by Mayor West at 10:50 PM on July 17, 2023 [4 favorites]
Self replicating machines are a very complicated problem and just gets harder the more you think about it. For example the complexity of finding the raw materials and transforming them into the more refined material you need — for example transforming iron and carbon into high quality steel, getting copper for the wiring, enriching uranium for nuclear power systems — you need that to go into deep space. That’s just one small part of it.
posted by interogative mood at 11:37 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:37 PM on July 17, 2023 [3 favorites]
Self replicating machines are a very complicated problem and just gets harder the more you think about it.
Currently it's cheaper to get fleshbags to stitch clothes rather than have tailoring robots that make clothes; same same for fleshy spaceflight.
What would be interesting to come from this is earthly non-human intelligence tested for piloting in space. If we agree we share the planet with other earth-made intelligences, we might be able to move beyond the anthropocene/lol-yolo-cene to curation of the resources and life on our blue dot.
posted by k3ninho at 12:21 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Currently it's cheaper to get fleshbags to stitch clothes rather than have tailoring robots that make clothes; same same for fleshy spaceflight.
What would be interesting to come from this is earthly non-human intelligence tested for piloting in space. If we agree we share the planet with other earth-made intelligences, we might be able to move beyond the anthropocene/lol-yolo-cene to curation of the resources and life on our blue dot.
posted by k3ninho at 12:21 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
On a practical level, extremely small numbers are zero, and particularly so when it comes to something like this.
Take something a dozen orders of magnitude more likely: Winning the lottery. It happens several times daily on the planet. It is near one-hundred-percent certain that it has happened today.
If I meet an extremely wealthy person, I will not assume they are today's lottery winner. That would be absurd. Everyone I met would laugh when I told them my assumption and how I had to ask the person just to be sure. And this is something that we have confirmed knowledge is possible and happens regularly, not hypothetical higher order technology that we can imagine but cannot create or even begin to create.
The odds of another intelligent species in the universe being near enough to us in space and time to interact even at a third-tier distance (like, I dunno, finding a comet that had had its course altered by an impact with another comet whose course change had been caused by an alien probe hitting it) are mathematically zero.
Now, if this were actually just an investigation into military secrets the Pentagon may have been inappropriately hiding (speaking of things we know are possible and happen regularly), then I'm all for it, but it won't actually do that job very well if at all.
posted by Scattercat at 1:01 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
Take something a dozen orders of magnitude more likely: Winning the lottery. It happens several times daily on the planet. It is near one-hundred-percent certain that it has happened today.
If I meet an extremely wealthy person, I will not assume they are today's lottery winner. That would be absurd. Everyone I met would laugh when I told them my assumption and how I had to ask the person just to be sure. And this is something that we have confirmed knowledge is possible and happens regularly, not hypothetical higher order technology that we can imagine but cannot create or even begin to create.
The odds of another intelligent species in the universe being near enough to us in space and time to interact even at a third-tier distance (like, I dunno, finding a comet that had had its course altered by an impact with another comet whose course change had been caused by an alien probe hitting it) are mathematically zero.
Now, if this were actually just an investigation into military secrets the Pentagon may have been inappropriately hiding (speaking of things we know are possible and happen regularly), then I'm all for it, but it won't actually do that job very well if at all.
posted by Scattercat at 1:01 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
This is all becoming increasingly real, and I said in the previous thread, all you "skeptics" do need to play catch-up. The evidence is building, like it or not. Arguing from first principles about the impossibilities of ET intelligence being present on Earth isn't going to cut it anymore. Besides, read what's being said - "Non-Human Intelligences" - origin unspecified.
If you are still skeptical, please explain:
- What is your mundane explanation for UAPs (with one or more characteristics for the bizarre observable qualities: instantaneous acceleration; transmedium travel, etc)? How have apparently unexplainable phenomena been tracked by multiple instruments and reported by credible, trained observers, across multiple decades?
- Why do military insiders like David Grusch appear and deliver the information they do? Do you think podcasting and mail-order books is a better grift than a highly paid military-industrial complex career?
- Yes, I'm sure we can think of other frivolous government interventions based on what we think is conspiratorial nonsense - but what history precedent is there for this, with bi-partisan support, and backing from military insiders?
- Do you even watch Skinwalker Ranch? Why do you think that show is regularly being surveilled by some branch of the military or intelligence forces (literally black helicopters overhead, bugging equipment etc)?
What I'm saying is, your counter-narrative needs to be pretty elaborate and conspiratorial itself to account for everything.
Occam's razor in this case is genuinely that things are what they appear to be - mysterious non-human intelligences fly crafts around our skies (so many videos, observations, and other tracking data!). Given thousands of objects seen over decades, some have probably been shot down or crashed, and it's not that strange to think that private aerospace firms want to keep a firm grip on whatever material or technologies they may have recovered.
It's possible we'll soon see a real craft, in a hanger somewhere, Biden walking around it and touching it before given a speech on a podium in front. If and when that happens, I hope you "skeptics" do finally take that as proof - but I think you're really so embedded in and invested in your world view that you'll claim it's just a model or CGI, and come across as weird as people that think the moon landings were faked. You're half way there at this point.
posted by iivix at 2:00 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
If you are still skeptical, please explain:
- What is your mundane explanation for UAPs (with one or more characteristics for the bizarre observable qualities: instantaneous acceleration; transmedium travel, etc)? How have apparently unexplainable phenomena been tracked by multiple instruments and reported by credible, trained observers, across multiple decades?
- Why do military insiders like David Grusch appear and deliver the information they do? Do you think podcasting and mail-order books is a better grift than a highly paid military-industrial complex career?
- Yes, I'm sure we can think of other frivolous government interventions based on what we think is conspiratorial nonsense - but what history precedent is there for this, with bi-partisan support, and backing from military insiders?
- Do you even watch Skinwalker Ranch? Why do you think that show is regularly being surveilled by some branch of the military or intelligence forces (literally black helicopters overhead, bugging equipment etc)?
What I'm saying is, your counter-narrative needs to be pretty elaborate and conspiratorial itself to account for everything.
Occam's razor in this case is genuinely that things are what they appear to be - mysterious non-human intelligences fly crafts around our skies (so many videos, observations, and other tracking data!). Given thousands of objects seen over decades, some have probably been shot down or crashed, and it's not that strange to think that private aerospace firms want to keep a firm grip on whatever material or technologies they may have recovered.
It's possible we'll soon see a real craft, in a hanger somewhere, Biden walking around it and touching it before given a speech on a podium in front. If and when that happens, I hope you "skeptics" do finally take that as proof - but I think you're really so embedded in and invested in your world view that you'll claim it's just a model or CGI, and come across as weird as people that think the moon landings were faked. You're half way there at this point.
posted by iivix at 2:00 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
I want to believe, but it's hard to believe when I look at this map that shows UFOs (or whatever we're calling them now) aren't much observed in world outside the US and other English-speaking countries.
posted by tovarisch at 2:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by tovarisch at 2:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
Or as we say in our house, if ET's so smart why can't he speak Dutch?
posted by dutchrick at 2:49 AM on July 18, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by dutchrick at 2:49 AM on July 18, 2023 [10 favorites]
"The evidence is building" - except it isn't - and if the result of this is that nothing is released that indicates any 'non-human' technology/intelligence exists? What then? Is it all still hidden but by a super secret cabal that the US government can't actually influence?
The people who are skeptical will be interested in evidence if it ever turns up. If your claim of a reputable source walking round a craft (of what sort? I mean, new advanced drones/unmanned aircraft are under development all over - alien craft, not so much) announcing it, then of course people would pay attention.
UAPs? I don't have a single mundane explanation beyond people are stupid, based on my evidence of being people and stupid (citation needed). Even, perhaps particularly, people using very complicated equipment that they don't necessarily understand how it works being unable to interpret false or unexpected data. I imagine there are a multitude of different reasons, some mundane, some technical, some just down to the nature of human behavior and reasoning.
posted by Leud at 3:06 AM on July 18, 2023 [16 favorites]
The people who are skeptical will be interested in evidence if it ever turns up. If your claim of a reputable source walking round a craft (of what sort? I mean, new advanced drones/unmanned aircraft are under development all over - alien craft, not so much) announcing it, then of course people would pay attention.
UAPs? I don't have a single mundane explanation beyond people are stupid, based on my evidence of being people and stupid (citation needed). Even, perhaps particularly, people using very complicated equipment that they don't necessarily understand how it works being unable to interpret false or unexpected data. I imagine there are a multitude of different reasons, some mundane, some technical, some just down to the nature of human behavior and reasoning.
posted by Leud at 3:06 AM on July 18, 2023 [16 favorites]
I used to be in the “there may be something out there” camp until our 45th president. Y’all know that he would have bought Super Bowl time to be the one delivering this news to the world.
“Everyone is saying that we have the best Aliens. Bigly…huge. The best you can get. And they know that this is a witch-hunt. And they aren’t very happy that this is happening to their favorite president, not happy at all.”
posted by pearlybob at 3:30 AM on July 18, 2023 [12 favorites]
“Everyone is saying that we have the best Aliens. Bigly…huge. The best you can get. And they know that this is a witch-hunt. And they aren’t very happy that this is happening to their favorite president, not happy at all.”
posted by pearlybob at 3:30 AM on July 18, 2023 [12 favorites]
I love this shit. I don't believe in aliens and ghosts or other paranormal or supernatural things, but I am very interested in people and how we experience and interpret our environment. I want to understand what it is about our brains and biology, and our society and culture, that causes UAPs to keep coming up and for people to keep having life-altering experiences.
I don't know what we'll discover in all this. But it's a worthwhile thing to investigate. This attention, whatever the motivation or intent, is driving more people to look at these ultimately human experiences and try to understand them.
posted by slimepuppy at 3:57 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
I don't know what we'll discover in all this. But it's a worthwhile thing to investigate. This attention, whatever the motivation or intent, is driving more people to look at these ultimately human experiences and try to understand them.
posted by slimepuppy at 3:57 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
Oh, fun.
What is your mundane explanation for UAPs (with one or more characteristics for the bizarre observable qualities: instantaneous acceleration; transmedium travel, etc)?
I don't think there is a single explanation. Various combinations of real objects misinterpreted (balloons, clouds, satellites, fireflies, dust motes etc.), hallucinations (vastly more common than is thought), simple misperception (difficulty of judging the distance of a light source, ground/foreground illusions, etc.), and maybe the occasional actual secret military project (stealth bomber anyone?). There are tons and tons of explanations for UAP sightings that don't require huge leaps of faith other than the occasional coincidence of time and place. Certainly not enough to hypothesize magical technology functioning on unknown physical laws and assuming that to be the default correct answer.
How have apparently unexplainable phenomena been tracked by multiple instruments and reported by credible, trained observers, across multiple decades?
The human brain is a jar of tapioca in a sealed bone case that makes guesses about perception based on random electrochemical twitches. It would be more surprising if there *was* such a thing as an observer whose perceptions were reliable.
Ditto for technology. Any number of things can cause weird visual images or radar blips. I recall reading about clouds of insects showing up on weather radar and so on. I'm not an expert in the field and I don't have any of the specific pieces of evidence cited, but I have not previously encountered one that was both clear and inexplicable by such experts as do exist.
- Why do military insiders like David Grusch appear and deliver the information they do? Do you think podcasting and mail-order books is a better grift than a highly paid military-industrial complex career?
Again, any number of plausible explanations present themselves. Grift, pure nutjob, gullible guy who talked to grifters and/or nutjobs, sincere skeptical believer who wishes to pursue an inquiry. I'm not his mom, and I don't need to speculate on his motives. The fact that there IS a very easy and highly self-gratifying career available to unremarkable people by scamming space weirdos is sufficient in itself that I don't find Grusch's existence, even if I take him entirely at his word (which I do not), enough evidence to make me need to accept any of his premises.
- Yes, I'm sure we can think of other frivolous government interventions based on what we think is conspiratorial nonsense - but what history precedent is there for this, with bi-partisan support, and backing from military insiders?
They tried to see if Mickey Mouse was a communist spy. They used to break each other's noses and beat each other with canes and shoot each other in duels. The fact that everyone can come together on investigating aliens is, I think, more a condemnation of how far afield we have to get before we leave the total polarization of every topic in politics these days.
Plus, let us not forget, one of the allegations is that people in the military have been concealing potentially important strategic data on enemy capabilities from Congress, which has oversight of the military. That alone is reason enough for people who like to puff and huff to take a swing at an easy lob. ("We held the military-industrial complex/woke leftist military to task for their mishandling of their powers! Vote us!")
- Do you even watch Skinwalker Ranch? Why do you think that show is regularly being surveilled by some branch of the military or intelligence forces (literally black helicopters overhead, bugging equipment etc)?
It isn't. They look for helicopters and they find them. They find bits of metal and confabulate. Or they fabricate incidents to make their show seem cooler and more interesting. If they were actually under serious federal investigation for Super Big Major Secrets that have literally never been leaked in allegedly a hundred years, they wouldn't get to be a TV show for very long.
Plus, law enforcement on every level puts bugs and spies into every single solitary leftist group, possibly down to like twenty-member Discord communities. I don't take that as a sign that anything in particular is happening other than the normal capitalist police state bullshit until they produce something in court, and a lot of times not even then.
It's possible we'll soon see a real craft, in a hanger somewhere, Biden walking around it and touching it before given a speech on a podium in front.
That would be super neat. I'd love to see it. It will not be happening, but it would be cool.
posted by Scattercat at 3:59 AM on July 18, 2023 [26 favorites]
What is your mundane explanation for UAPs (with one or more characteristics for the bizarre observable qualities: instantaneous acceleration; transmedium travel, etc)?
I don't think there is a single explanation. Various combinations of real objects misinterpreted (balloons, clouds, satellites, fireflies, dust motes etc.), hallucinations (vastly more common than is thought), simple misperception (difficulty of judging the distance of a light source, ground/foreground illusions, etc.), and maybe the occasional actual secret military project (stealth bomber anyone?). There are tons and tons of explanations for UAP sightings that don't require huge leaps of faith other than the occasional coincidence of time and place. Certainly not enough to hypothesize magical technology functioning on unknown physical laws and assuming that to be the default correct answer.
How have apparently unexplainable phenomena been tracked by multiple instruments and reported by credible, trained observers, across multiple decades?
The human brain is a jar of tapioca in a sealed bone case that makes guesses about perception based on random electrochemical twitches. It would be more surprising if there *was* such a thing as an observer whose perceptions were reliable.
Ditto for technology. Any number of things can cause weird visual images or radar blips. I recall reading about clouds of insects showing up on weather radar and so on. I'm not an expert in the field and I don't have any of the specific pieces of evidence cited, but I have not previously encountered one that was both clear and inexplicable by such experts as do exist.
- Why do military insiders like David Grusch appear and deliver the information they do? Do you think podcasting and mail-order books is a better grift than a highly paid military-industrial complex career?
Again, any number of plausible explanations present themselves. Grift, pure nutjob, gullible guy who talked to grifters and/or nutjobs, sincere skeptical believer who wishes to pursue an inquiry. I'm not his mom, and I don't need to speculate on his motives. The fact that there IS a very easy and highly self-gratifying career available to unremarkable people by scamming space weirdos is sufficient in itself that I don't find Grusch's existence, even if I take him entirely at his word (which I do not), enough evidence to make me need to accept any of his premises.
- Yes, I'm sure we can think of other frivolous government interventions based on what we think is conspiratorial nonsense - but what history precedent is there for this, with bi-partisan support, and backing from military insiders?
They tried to see if Mickey Mouse was a communist spy. They used to break each other's noses and beat each other with canes and shoot each other in duels. The fact that everyone can come together on investigating aliens is, I think, more a condemnation of how far afield we have to get before we leave the total polarization of every topic in politics these days.
Plus, let us not forget, one of the allegations is that people in the military have been concealing potentially important strategic data on enemy capabilities from Congress, which has oversight of the military. That alone is reason enough for people who like to puff and huff to take a swing at an easy lob. ("We held the military-industrial complex/woke leftist military to task for their mishandling of their powers! Vote us!")
- Do you even watch Skinwalker Ranch? Why do you think that show is regularly being surveilled by some branch of the military or intelligence forces (literally black helicopters overhead, bugging equipment etc)?
It isn't. They look for helicopters and they find them. They find bits of metal and confabulate. Or they fabricate incidents to make their show seem cooler and more interesting. If they were actually under serious federal investigation for Super Big Major Secrets that have literally never been leaked in allegedly a hundred years, they wouldn't get to be a TV show for very long.
Plus, law enforcement on every level puts bugs and spies into every single solitary leftist group, possibly down to like twenty-member Discord communities. I don't take that as a sign that anything in particular is happening other than the normal capitalist police state bullshit until they produce something in court, and a lot of times not even then.
It's possible we'll soon see a real craft, in a hanger somewhere, Biden walking around it and touching it before given a speech on a podium in front.
That would be super neat. I'd love to see it. It will not be happening, but it would be cool.
posted by Scattercat at 3:59 AM on July 18, 2023 [26 favorites]
... to be fair, our understanding of the 'world/universe' is constrained to our perceptions and what we can extrapolate from them. Which has proven pretty reliable to date. But we human's are prone to being human and that means all kinds of mis-perceptions. (A couple years ago I was on a boat, we were heading for the east coast of Denmark - there are some big chalk cliffs there. We were about 25 miles away, waaaay out of sight, but the barometer had dropped over night and we could see the cliffs. Later the front passed, the skies cleared and we could no longer see the cliffs. Did we psychically move the cliffs? Yes. Clearly, yes we did just that.)
More pertinently, the oversight of Congress is to be defended - as fucking loco as a slice of the House of Reps is - which I kinda think is the real issue behind all this.
Also, if ET doesn't show up in the Heart of Gold I'm not so interested.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:19 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
More pertinently, the oversight of Congress is to be defended - as fucking loco as a slice of the House of Reps is - which I kinda think is the real issue behind all this.
Also, if ET doesn't show up in the Heart of Gold I'm not so interested.
posted by From Bklyn at 4:19 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Here's the thing, on the one hand, meh. It's kinda silly but neither breaks my leg nor picks my pocket (much).
On the other hand, it's reflective of an entire cultural problem of lack of critical thinking that is nothing new but is always worrying and annoying.
The same way we can know that Flat Earthism is false without knowing anything at all about science or any actual facts about the Earth is how we can also know how the whole UFO thing is also false.
How?
Both propose a global conspiracy including literally every single government on the planet including the ones that are currently at war with one another and includes millions if not tens of millions of experts in a wide ranging variety of fields all to be cooperating to suppress the truth, without a single defector or whistleblower, for decades if not centuries, at a cost of trillions of dollars, for no benefit to anyone at all.
No one, not one single person, benefits from every single government on Earth working in concert to keep sentient aliens secret.
No one, not one single person, gains financially from keeping sentient aliens secret.
Imagine this hypothetical dialog from 1950:
Just no.
Even leaving aside the utter logistical impossibility of inducting EVERY SINGLE PERSON involved however peripherally in anything at all that involves studying the sky or using radar from individual airline pilots and meteorologists on up the chain, the cost, the total and utter lack of any benefit at all, and the inevitability of someone betraying the secret means it could never have been a secret.
At what time in their training do young meteorologists get inducted into the secret? When they take their first course involving using weather radar? At a slightly higher level? How does the conspiracy assure total, absolute, unwavering, 100% no defectors ever, loyalty to the conspiracy among the huge number of new inductees from all possible religious, social, economic, and ideological backgrounds?
Second hypothetical dialog:
I suspect very strongly that there probably is sapient alien life in the universe.
I can see a couple of power mad twits in various governments wanting to keep it secret just because.
I cannot see any possible way for this planetwide, preposterously expensive, logistical nightmare of a conspiracy to stay secret for even five minutes much less the 100 years or more it would require to fit history.
Which is how, knowing absolutely nothing at all about radar, or any other aspect of the actual issue at hand, we can completely rule out any sort of conspiracy to keep aliens secret from existing.
Again, I find the proposed amendment to be a bit silly but of no actual harm in and of itself.
I do find it harmful and disturbing that so many of my fellow humans fail the very basic critical thinking skills it takes to know that there is not and never could be a conspiracy like the one required.
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 AM on July 18, 2023 [30 favorites]
On the other hand, it's reflective of an entire cultural problem of lack of critical thinking that is nothing new but is always worrying and annoying.
The same way we can know that Flat Earthism is false without knowing anything at all about science or any actual facts about the Earth is how we can also know how the whole UFO thing is also false.
How?
Both propose a global conspiracy including literally every single government on the planet including the ones that are currently at war with one another and includes millions if not tens of millions of experts in a wide ranging variety of fields all to be cooperating to suppress the truth, without a single defector or whistleblower, for decades if not centuries, at a cost of trillions of dollars, for no benefit to anyone at all.
No one, not one single person, benefits from every single government on Earth working in concert to keep sentient aliens secret.
No one, not one single person, gains financially from keeping sentient aliens secret.
Imagine this hypothetical dialog from 1950:
"Comrade Stalin, we have learned that the USSR has been participating in a massive conspiracy with the Capitalists to keep the truth of alien life secret from the people! We can expose this conspiracy, claim allegiance with the aliens, and devastate American morale by shattering their faith in their government! Shall I have Pravda begin preparing headlines?"No.
"Nyet Comrade whistleblower, I have decided instead that we shall join with the Americans, spend trillions of rubles to aid them in keeping this secret, produce an entirely new branch of the KGB to use advanced and also incredibly secret methods to prevent any of the millions of Soviet citizens who know the truth from revealing it, all for no benefit at all because I am a very smart person and clearly acting in the way a real world leader would in this situation."
Just no.
Even leaving aside the utter logistical impossibility of inducting EVERY SINGLE PERSON involved however peripherally in anything at all that involves studying the sky or using radar from individual airline pilots and meteorologists on up the chain, the cost, the total and utter lack of any benefit at all, and the inevitability of someone betraying the secret means it could never have been a secret.
At what time in their training do young meteorologists get inducted into the secret? When they take their first course involving using weather radar? At a slightly higher level? How does the conspiracy assure total, absolute, unwavering, 100% no defectors ever, loyalty to the conspiracy among the huge number of new inductees from all possible religious, social, economic, and ideological backgrounds?
Second hypothetical dialog:
"Ayatollah now that we have crushed the last forces of the vile American backed dictator and completely taken over Iran from the Shah we have found that in addition to torturing and killing so many of our members he and the rest of his corrupt and secular government have been hiding the amazing truth that Allah created life off Earth and that messengers from other worlds exist who can learn the truth Muhammad (PBUH) brought to us! Shall I begin preparing press releases immediately as well as translations of the holy Quran into their languages?"Yeah, no. Just no.
"No, no, don't be silly. Instead we will join the evil Americans and their false religion in totally suppressing all knowledge of this at incalculable cost to us for no material or ideological or spiritual benefit whatsoever because this is a very reasonable thing to do. I am a very smart leader!"
I suspect very strongly that there probably is sapient alien life in the universe.
I can see a couple of power mad twits in various governments wanting to keep it secret just because.
I cannot see any possible way for this planetwide, preposterously expensive, logistical nightmare of a conspiracy to stay secret for even five minutes much less the 100 years or more it would require to fit history.
Which is how, knowing absolutely nothing at all about radar, or any other aspect of the actual issue at hand, we can completely rule out any sort of conspiracy to keep aliens secret from existing.
Again, I find the proposed amendment to be a bit silly but of no actual harm in and of itself.
I do find it harmful and disturbing that so many of my fellow humans fail the very basic critical thinking skills it takes to know that there is not and never could be a conspiracy like the one required.
posted by sotonohito at 4:57 AM on July 18, 2023 [30 favorites]
I used to be in the “there may be something out there” camp until our 45th president.
I've always been one to believe that...they don't tell every President everything.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:27 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
I've always been one to believe that...they don't tell every President everything.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:27 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
boy real inflection point for me when the internet is debunking congress’s conspiracy theories and not vice versa.
posted by web5.0 at 6:34 AM on July 18, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by web5.0 at 6:34 AM on July 18, 2023 [14 favorites]
The same way we can know that Flat Earthism is false without knowing anything at all about science or any actual facts about the Earth is how we can also know how the whole UFO thing is also false.
Uh. What? We know Flat Earthism is false due to science. Our physical perception is that the ground is mostly level.
This sounds like a convoluted way to convince yourself that UFOs don't exist no matter what evidence is presented to the contrary.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 6:49 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Uh. What? We know Flat Earthism is false due to science. Our physical perception is that the ground is mostly level.
This sounds like a convoluted way to convince yourself that UFOs don't exist no matter what evidence is presented to the contrary.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 6:49 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
I used to be in the “there may be something out there” camp until our 45th president.
If there was something they had to disclose to him, but definitely did not want TFG to understand and tell everyone - I'm sure they could have found a way in an briefing paper somewhere. Put it 20 pages deep in small text on a slide with 40 other bullet points - adding one like "we assess with moderate confidence the potential for biological systems existing at a distances greater than 1 astronomical unit based on the limited available data". Wedge it between 4 or 5 super dry bullets about spectroscopy analysis missions and advances in remote sensing and a reader with slightly higher interest may just infer the "available data" is some scientist being overly excited about oxygen being potentially identified in a distance planet's atmosphere. Put something super sexy on page 1 like an update on space base spy capabilities, along with an image of being able to see what happens at the pool parties of Iranian leaders.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 7:03 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
If there was something they had to disclose to him, but definitely did not want TFG to understand and tell everyone - I'm sure they could have found a way in an briefing paper somewhere. Put it 20 pages deep in small text on a slide with 40 other bullet points - adding one like "we assess with moderate confidence the potential for biological systems existing at a distances greater than 1 astronomical unit based on the limited available data". Wedge it between 4 or 5 super dry bullets about spectroscopy analysis missions and advances in remote sensing and a reader with slightly higher interest may just infer the "available data" is some scientist being overly excited about oxygen being potentially identified in a distance planet's atmosphere. Put something super sexy on page 1 like an update on space base spy capabilities, along with an image of being able to see what happens at the pool parties of Iranian leaders.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 7:03 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
> I want to believe, but it's hard to believe when I look at this map that shows UFOs (or whatever we're calling them now) aren't much observed in world outside the US and other English-speaking countries.
What about:
In Brazil?
Or Zimbabwe?
Or France?
To pick just a few significant things.
posted by iivix at 7:11 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
What about:
In Brazil?
Or Zimbabwe?
Or France?
To pick just a few significant things.
posted by iivix at 7:11 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
- What is your mundane explanation for UAPs (with one or more characteristics for the bizarre observable qualities: instantaneous acceleration; transmedium travel, etc)?
UAP = Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon = something seen but not identified. I don't actually need a mundane explanation for every single UAP that might be brought to my attention in order to assume that every such phenomenon is many orders of magnitude more likely to be mundane than esoteric.
Any interpretation of some observation that ascribes instantaneous acceleration, transmedium travel, unfeasible speeds through air or water or any other attribute inconsistent with basic mechanics and/or thermodynamics is strong evidence that that interpretation is simply incorrect regardless of how cool or pleasing it might be.
The "Go Fast" clip is a case in point. Endless amounts of ink and pixels have been spilt on breathless reporting of the tracked object's allegedly impossible behaviour. But all of that reportage completely ignores the on-screen range, speed and heading numbers that show unambiguously that the object being tracked was duck-sized, flying at around 10,000 feet, with a groundspeed (not airspeed) of around 40 miles per hour.
How have apparently unexplainable phenomena been tracked by multiple instruments and reported by credible, trained observers, across multiple decades?
Training cannot render an observer incapable of misinterpreting what is observed. Nothing, in fact, can do that. Education can help, as can a conscientious practice of critical thinking. But seizing on a pleasing explanation for something puzzling is a thing that all of us have done at some point and I find it completely unsurprising that some of us, in particular some fighter pilot jocks, just don't have the humility to prefer "I don't know" to "it must be aliens".
- Why do military insiders like David Grusch appear and deliver the information they do? Do you think podcasting and mail-order books is a better grift than a highly paid military-industrial complex career?
Military insiders are every bit as capable of believing in weird shit as any of us. My read on Grusch is not that he lacks integrity, only that he lacks skepticism. He comes across like somebody who had never read The Men Who Stare at Goats.
- Yes, I'm sure we can think of other frivolous government interventions based on what we think is conspiratorial nonsense - but what history precedent is there for this, with bi-partisan support, and backing from military insiders?
Project Blue Book
- Do you even watch Skinwalker Ranch?
No. I don't know what that is. Have to say, though, that I'm getting a pretty strong Obviously Bullshit vibe just off the name alone. Hold on, let me look that up...
Wait, is it this? Couldn't be. Surely nobody would offer up a work of horror fiction as if it were some kind of serious argument. Have I been trolled? Should I go have a nice day now?
What I'm saying is, your counter-narrative needs to be pretty elaborate and conspiratorial itself to account for everything.
No. Go watch the Thunderf00t piece I linked above. It's the opposite of elaborate and conspiratorial.
Occam's razor in this case is genuinely that things are what they appear to be - mysterious non-human intelligences fly crafts around our skies (so many videos, observations, and other tracking data!).
Yeah, nah. What Occam's Razor suggests to me is that people are often mistaken about what it is we're looking at, especially when what we're looking at has nothing familiar nearby to it to provide us with context.
What Occam's Razor suggests to me is that blurry, indistinct photos or video are highly susceptible to being misinterpreted by people who are at all motivated to do just that.
What Occam's Razor suggests to me is that aliens must not be multiplied beyond necessity. And I see no necessity whatsoever.
Given thousands of objects seen over decades, some have probably been shot down or crashed, and it's not that strange to think that private aerospace firms want to keep a firm grip on whatever material or technologies they may have recovered.
No, it's not that strange to think that (more's the pity). It's just the same kind of motivated reasoning that leads so many people to argue vociferously and sincerely that the Earth is flat: This is how it looks to me = this is how it must be, The End.
It's still bogus, though.
posted by flabdablet at 7:17 AM on July 18, 2023 [10 favorites]
UAP = Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon = something seen but not identified. I don't actually need a mundane explanation for every single UAP that might be brought to my attention in order to assume that every such phenomenon is many orders of magnitude more likely to be mundane than esoteric.
Any interpretation of some observation that ascribes instantaneous acceleration, transmedium travel, unfeasible speeds through air or water or any other attribute inconsistent with basic mechanics and/or thermodynamics is strong evidence that that interpretation is simply incorrect regardless of how cool or pleasing it might be.
The "Go Fast" clip is a case in point. Endless amounts of ink and pixels have been spilt on breathless reporting of the tracked object's allegedly impossible behaviour. But all of that reportage completely ignores the on-screen range, speed and heading numbers that show unambiguously that the object being tracked was duck-sized, flying at around 10,000 feet, with a groundspeed (not airspeed) of around 40 miles per hour.
How have apparently unexplainable phenomena been tracked by multiple instruments and reported by credible, trained observers, across multiple decades?
Training cannot render an observer incapable of misinterpreting what is observed. Nothing, in fact, can do that. Education can help, as can a conscientious practice of critical thinking. But seizing on a pleasing explanation for something puzzling is a thing that all of us have done at some point and I find it completely unsurprising that some of us, in particular some fighter pilot jocks, just don't have the humility to prefer "I don't know" to "it must be aliens".
- Why do military insiders like David Grusch appear and deliver the information they do? Do you think podcasting and mail-order books is a better grift than a highly paid military-industrial complex career?
Military insiders are every bit as capable of believing in weird shit as any of us. My read on Grusch is not that he lacks integrity, only that he lacks skepticism. He comes across like somebody who had never read The Men Who Stare at Goats.
- Yes, I'm sure we can think of other frivolous government interventions based on what we think is conspiratorial nonsense - but what history precedent is there for this, with bi-partisan support, and backing from military insiders?
Project Blue Book
- Do you even watch Skinwalker Ranch?
No. I don't know what that is. Have to say, though, that I'm getting a pretty strong Obviously Bullshit vibe just off the name alone. Hold on, let me look that up...
Wait, is it this? Couldn't be. Surely nobody would offer up a work of horror fiction as if it were some kind of serious argument. Have I been trolled? Should I go have a nice day now?
What I'm saying is, your counter-narrative needs to be pretty elaborate and conspiratorial itself to account for everything.
No. Go watch the Thunderf00t piece I linked above. It's the opposite of elaborate and conspiratorial.
Occam's razor in this case is genuinely that things are what they appear to be - mysterious non-human intelligences fly crafts around our skies (so many videos, observations, and other tracking data!).
Yeah, nah. What Occam's Razor suggests to me is that people are often mistaken about what it is we're looking at, especially when what we're looking at has nothing familiar nearby to it to provide us with context.
What Occam's Razor suggests to me is that blurry, indistinct photos or video are highly susceptible to being misinterpreted by people who are at all motivated to do just that.
What Occam's Razor suggests to me is that aliens must not be multiplied beyond necessity. And I see no necessity whatsoever.
Given thousands of objects seen over decades, some have probably been shot down or crashed, and it's not that strange to think that private aerospace firms want to keep a firm grip on whatever material or technologies they may have recovered.
No, it's not that strange to think that (more's the pity). It's just the same kind of motivated reasoning that leads so many people to argue vociferously and sincerely that the Earth is flat: This is how it looks to me = this is how it must be, The End.
It's still bogus, though.
posted by flabdablet at 7:17 AM on July 18, 2023 [10 favorites]
So it looks like I got Skinwalker Ranch wrong, and what was actually meant is this TV series.
"Reality" (aka manipulative, sensationalist, cheap-ass clickbait) TV? Brought to us by The History Channel, the same outfit responsible for Ancient Aliens, if I remember right? Thanks, I'll pass.
If indeed I have just been trolled, fair play to you.
posted by flabdablet at 7:23 AM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
"Reality" (aka manipulative, sensationalist, cheap-ass clickbait) TV? Brought to us by The History Channel, the same outfit responsible for Ancient Aliens, if I remember right? Thanks, I'll pass.
If indeed I have just been trolled, fair play to you.
posted by flabdablet at 7:23 AM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
In this video Mick West looks at shocking Skinwalker ranch incident.
posted by interogative mood at 7:24 AM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:24 AM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
joeyjoejoejr Perhaps I wasn't clear. If evidence exists that's a whole different deal. But there is no evidence, just a massive conspiracy theory.
And the whole point is to not get bogged down in all the infinity of whatabouts that the conspiracy theorists can come up with.
The conspiracy that is necessary for their position to be valid is impossible. Therefore there is no reason to even consider any conspiracy nonsense.
If there's actual, real, empirical, evidence in support of sapient aliens buzzing around, anally probing homophobic people in isolated rural areas and making crop circles and so on, then sure. We consider that evidence.
But a few blurry photos from decades ago? Yeah, no. That's not evidence of a massive worldwide conspiracy to hide UFO's from us. And the impossibility of keeping such things a secret means the blurry photos are just that: blurry photos.
Again, this isn't about denying or ignoring evidence, this is about requiring strong empirical evidence in favor of the UFO position (actual aliens, extraterrestrial hardware, etc) due to the impossibility of the conspiracy they propose to explain away the lack of such strong evidence.
You show me the edge of the planet as seen from the top of the wall of ice surrounding the so called "south pole" and I'll change my mind about Flat Earthism.
You ramble incoherently about sky domes and spotlight suns and invoke a massive worldwide centuries old conspiracy that has never once had a single leak as an excuse for why you don't have real evidence, and I'll laugh at you.
Same for UFO types.
Show me an alien. Show me a starship. Shit man, just show me some astronomers who have found an active fusion torch from an accelerating starship! Something real, not just Cleetus telling us about how the aliens probed his ass, and I'll absolutely accept the existence of alien vistors.
Show me a few blurry photos and invoke a completely impossible worldwide conspiracy to justify the lack of anything better? Then the impossibility of the conspiracy comes into play.
I could go into the weeds and start talking about the absurdity of a "crashed UFO" in light of the tech that would be involved, or the total absence of any sort of evidence for starships slowing down that would be impossible to hide, or whatever, but that just invites the conspiracy type to do what they always do and Gish Gallop all over the place.
Prove to me that the conspiracy that is required for your hypothesis that there is evidence but it's being hidden from us is even POSSIBLE and then, and only then, is it worth considering a few blurry photos [1] as sufficient evidence to jump from "here's a blurry photo" to "sapient alien life is visiting Earth and has tech good enough to do that but shitty enough they crash land."
[1] Notice how the UFO's got a lot more shy after everyone started carrying around high definition digital cameras? Funny that. Just ike ghosts suddenly got more shy with the rise of camera phones...
posted by sotonohito at 7:29 AM on July 18, 2023 [14 favorites]
And the whole point is to not get bogged down in all the infinity of whatabouts that the conspiracy theorists can come up with.
The conspiracy that is necessary for their position to be valid is impossible. Therefore there is no reason to even consider any conspiracy nonsense.
If there's actual, real, empirical, evidence in support of sapient aliens buzzing around, anally probing homophobic people in isolated rural areas and making crop circles and so on, then sure. We consider that evidence.
But a few blurry photos from decades ago? Yeah, no. That's not evidence of a massive worldwide conspiracy to hide UFO's from us. And the impossibility of keeping such things a secret means the blurry photos are just that: blurry photos.
Again, this isn't about denying or ignoring evidence, this is about requiring strong empirical evidence in favor of the UFO position (actual aliens, extraterrestrial hardware, etc) due to the impossibility of the conspiracy they propose to explain away the lack of such strong evidence.
You show me the edge of the planet as seen from the top of the wall of ice surrounding the so called "south pole" and I'll change my mind about Flat Earthism.
You ramble incoherently about sky domes and spotlight suns and invoke a massive worldwide centuries old conspiracy that has never once had a single leak as an excuse for why you don't have real evidence, and I'll laugh at you.
Same for UFO types.
Show me an alien. Show me a starship. Shit man, just show me some astronomers who have found an active fusion torch from an accelerating starship! Something real, not just Cleetus telling us about how the aliens probed his ass, and I'll absolutely accept the existence of alien vistors.
Show me a few blurry photos and invoke a completely impossible worldwide conspiracy to justify the lack of anything better? Then the impossibility of the conspiracy comes into play.
I could go into the weeds and start talking about the absurdity of a "crashed UFO" in light of the tech that would be involved, or the total absence of any sort of evidence for starships slowing down that would be impossible to hide, or whatever, but that just invites the conspiracy type to do what they always do and Gish Gallop all over the place.
Prove to me that the conspiracy that is required for your hypothesis that there is evidence but it's being hidden from us is even POSSIBLE and then, and only then, is it worth considering a few blurry photos [1] as sufficient evidence to jump from "here's a blurry photo" to "sapient alien life is visiting Earth and has tech good enough to do that but shitty enough they crash land."
[1] Notice how the UFO's got a lot more shy after everyone started carrying around high definition digital cameras? Funny that. Just ike ghosts suddenly got more shy with the rise of camera phones...
posted by sotonohito at 7:29 AM on July 18, 2023 [14 favorites]
The evidence is building, like it or not.
Yes, my mom says rainbows are evidence of the existence of god. I can't prove that she is wrong, but she is wrong.
Not about god, it's possible there is a god, just as it's possible there are aliens. But she is wrong about the evidence.
posted by bondcliff at 7:33 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
Yes, my mom says rainbows are evidence of the existence of god. I can't prove that she is wrong, but she is wrong.
Not about god, it's possible there is a god, just as it's possible there are aliens. But she is wrong about the evidence.
posted by bondcliff at 7:33 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
I am fully aware that my tone is also highly dismissive.
That's what we do with nonsense. We dismiss it. Why would anybody not?
posted by flabdablet at 7:33 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
That's what we do with nonsense. We dismiss it. Why would anybody not?
posted by flabdablet at 7:33 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
> I am attempting not to just point and laugh at you as a person for being so enthusiastic about being misled.
Well thanks for that |:
posted by iivix at 7:34 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Well thanks for that |:
posted by iivix at 7:34 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
OMG you guys.
Tim Burchett (scroll back up to the actual post - he's the guy got the provision in the House bill) just doesn't like China.
He doesn't think there's aliens, he thinks the Chinese are spying on us and he thinks the Pentagon is sitting on something that he can use against the Biden administration in his next campaign.
That's it, that's all, this is just politicians thinking they can use this stuff for their advantage at some point.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:36 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
Tim Burchett (scroll back up to the actual post - he's the guy got the provision in the House bill) just doesn't like China.
He doesn't think there's aliens, he thinks the Chinese are spying on us and he thinks the Pentagon is sitting on something that he can use against the Biden administration in his next campaign.
That's it, that's all, this is just politicians thinking they can use this stuff for their advantage at some point.
posted by joannemerriam at 7:36 AM on July 18, 2023 [11 favorites]
As to why Skinwalker ranch is showing up so much here, it’s because they made this guy some kind of “scientist” on a previous senate authorized ufo hunt and all the stuff David Grusch came out with sounds like his stuff recycled.
posted by Artw at 7:42 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 7:42 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
I cannot see any possible way for this planetwide, preposterously expensive, logistical nightmare of a conspiracy to stay secret for even five minutes much less the 100 years or more it would require to fit history.
Brain slugs, brain slugs, cuddly wuddly brain slugs, brain slugs, brain slugs, put them on you!
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:43 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Brain slugs, brain slugs, cuddly wuddly brain slugs, brain slugs, brain slugs, put them on you!
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:43 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Whatabout anal probes?
posted by flabdablet at 7:46 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 7:46 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs
I just became aware of that article this morning; the math is a little beyond me at this point, but it seems germane to this discussion.
I want to believe, I really do...but the fact remains that interstellar distances are vast, and as much as it is a waste of space for it all to be uninhabited, the odds of anyone else being close enough, technologically advanced enough, and interested enough seems infinitesimal. (The only slightly plausible idea to me would be a machine intelligence that was dispatched to roam the galaxy a long time ago). Interdimensional travel seems fraught with bigger questions about how it might be possible.
For all intents and purposes, I think we're better off assuming we're on our own in a vast cosmos, and no one is coming to help or invade or bootstrap us to a better level of existence (luxury gay space communism); if we're going to get there, it's on our own.
posted by nubs at 8:05 AM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
I just became aware of that article this morning; the math is a little beyond me at this point, but it seems germane to this discussion.
I want to believe, I really do...but the fact remains that interstellar distances are vast, and as much as it is a waste of space for it all to be uninhabited, the odds of anyone else being close enough, technologically advanced enough, and interested enough seems infinitesimal. (The only slightly plausible idea to me would be a machine intelligence that was dispatched to roam the galaxy a long time ago). Interdimensional travel seems fraught with bigger questions about how it might be possible.
For all intents and purposes, I think we're better off assuming we're on our own in a vast cosmos, and no one is coming to help or invade or bootstrap us to a better level of existence (luxury gay space communism); if we're going to get there, it's on our own.
posted by nubs at 8:05 AM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
Mod note: A few comments removed. Please stick to the subject and don't attack each other.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 8:14 AM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 8:14 AM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
Hasn't the basic premise behind shows like Ancient Aliens, that ancient non-European civilizations and cultures were incapable of significant engineering feats, been proven to be really racist and xenophobic? I follow a couple of archaeologists on Twitter and they flip out whenever stuff like this comes across their timelines.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 8:18 AM on July 18, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 8:18 AM on July 18, 2023 [16 favorites]
I raised a MetaTalk thread which I assume is nixed at this point since some comments have been deleted, but I would also love it if the same posters who attack others would also lay off immediately shitting all over the topic. That too is really toxic and makes me feel very unwelcome here.
posted by iivix at 8:19 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by iivix at 8:19 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
Conspiracy theory exists on a spectrum. From "the US government is not being transparent about its research and findings relating to UAP" to "Eisenhower signed a contract with the aliens in 1954". I know it's a more convenient and easier argument to just say anyone who has questions about UAPs is a moron who believes the latter, but there is actually a bit of nuance to the people asking questions and wanting to dig into this.
This may be a case of the Manchurian Candidate turning out to be MK Ultra: there aren't mind-controller sleeper assassins created by the government running around, but there sure was a lot of CIA money spent on drugging and torturing people to see if they could make it happen.
There's probably not an UFO in a bunker somewhere, but I would like to know what the US government has done and discovered in their pursuit of UFOs over the years.
posted by slimepuppy at 8:21 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
This may be a case of the Manchurian Candidate turning out to be MK Ultra: there aren't mind-controller sleeper assassins created by the government running around, but there sure was a lot of CIA money spent on drugging and torturing people to see if they could make it happen.
There's probably not an UFO in a bunker somewhere, but I would like to know what the US government has done and discovered in their pursuit of UFOs over the years.
posted by slimepuppy at 8:21 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
Also "skinwalker" is a Native American term that seems to have been used by a bunch of white people to gin up tourism and waste federal grant money, which is not a great look either.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 8:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 8:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
I raised a MetaTalk thread which I assume is nixed at this point since some comments have been deleted, but I would also love it if the same posters who attack others would also lay off immediately shitting all over the topic.
If someone comes here promoting QANON, a similar nonsense that exists in a similar space where people people make outrageous claims on evidence that does not support it, I’m going to “shit over all that” too.
I would also prefer Metafilter not become a safe haven for bullshit.
posted by Artw at 8:32 AM on July 18, 2023 [28 favorites]
If someone comes here promoting QANON, a similar nonsense that exists in a similar space where people people make outrageous claims on evidence that does not support it, I’m going to “shit over all that” too.
I would also prefer Metafilter not become a safe haven for bullshit.
posted by Artw at 8:32 AM on July 18, 2023 [28 favorites]
"The aliens will contact us when they can make money by doing so." - David Byrne
posted by neuron at 8:41 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by neuron at 8:41 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
a completely impossible worldwide conspiracy
this is a very weak argument for 'uaps aren't aliens'.
sure, your hypothetical conspiracy would be essentially impossible to keep secret for 80+ years. but if (if!) there were a conspiracy to cover up uaps being aliens, there would be no reason why it would need to look like your hypothetical impossible conspiracy.
for example:
- it doesn't need to be global or include every single government on the planet.
- it doesn't need to (in fact, very likely wouldn't) involve millions of cooperating experts - the recent reporting referred to an outsize degree of secrecy and compartmentalising / stovepiping, to the point that the supposed reverse engineering programs had made little progress due to the lack of collaboration. whether or not you think these programs exist, if they do exist, i think that level of secrecy is much more plausible than having millions of people read in.
- it doesn't need to have continued "without a single defector or whistleblower". it merely requires that any defector or whistleblower doesn't come to public awareness or, if they do, they aren't taken seriously (due to people's inherent scepticism, disinfo, destruction / seizure of potentially convincing evidence, etc.).
also, the idea that no-one would have anything to gain from keeping such a secret is frankly one of the most implausible things in this thread. firstly, because if it were to be the case that alien tech had been recovered, the potential value of that would (very obviously) be gigantic. and secondly, because 'gain' doesn't just cover achieving something that improves your position; it also covers avoiding something that damages your position. for example, it's not difficult to see how some types of technology far in advance of our own might, if their details were disclosed, have the potential for enormous damage, given humanity's ingenuity in turning things into weapons. not to mention the downside risks of potential societal and market upheaval if some of the wilder claims made by uap believers turned out to be even partly true.
governments in general, and the us government in particular, are perfectly capable of keeping secrets (and / or suppressing or undermining any disclosure of said secrets) for a very long time, provided they're sufficiently motivated and are willing to accept the necessary tradeoffs for said secrecy (such as glacial progress on reverse engineering recovered alien spaceships).
this is a view commonly expressed on mefi over the years, and the fact that the polar opposite is now being put forward as if it were (a) blindingly obvious and (b) the only possible interpretation smells more like motivated reasoning than the critical thinking that is apparently valued so highly.
posted by inire at 8:42 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
this is a very weak argument for 'uaps aren't aliens'.
sure, your hypothetical conspiracy would be essentially impossible to keep secret for 80+ years. but if (if!) there were a conspiracy to cover up uaps being aliens, there would be no reason why it would need to look like your hypothetical impossible conspiracy.
for example:
- it doesn't need to be global or include every single government on the planet.
- it doesn't need to (in fact, very likely wouldn't) involve millions of cooperating experts - the recent reporting referred to an outsize degree of secrecy and compartmentalising / stovepiping, to the point that the supposed reverse engineering programs had made little progress due to the lack of collaboration. whether or not you think these programs exist, if they do exist, i think that level of secrecy is much more plausible than having millions of people read in.
- it doesn't need to have continued "without a single defector or whistleblower". it merely requires that any defector or whistleblower doesn't come to public awareness or, if they do, they aren't taken seriously (due to people's inherent scepticism, disinfo, destruction / seizure of potentially convincing evidence, etc.).
also, the idea that no-one would have anything to gain from keeping such a secret is frankly one of the most implausible things in this thread. firstly, because if it were to be the case that alien tech had been recovered, the potential value of that would (very obviously) be gigantic. and secondly, because 'gain' doesn't just cover achieving something that improves your position; it also covers avoiding something that damages your position. for example, it's not difficult to see how some types of technology far in advance of our own might, if their details were disclosed, have the potential for enormous damage, given humanity's ingenuity in turning things into weapons. not to mention the downside risks of potential societal and market upheaval if some of the wilder claims made by uap believers turned out to be even partly true.
governments in general, and the us government in particular, are perfectly capable of keeping secrets (and / or suppressing or undermining any disclosure of said secrets) for a very long time, provided they're sufficiently motivated and are willing to accept the necessary tradeoffs for said secrecy (such as glacial progress on reverse engineering recovered alien spaceships).
this is a view commonly expressed on mefi over the years, and the fact that the polar opposite is now being put forward as if it were (a) blindingly obvious and (b) the only possible interpretation smells more like motivated reasoning than the critical thinking that is apparently valued so highly.
posted by inire at 8:42 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't see how this issue is at all like QAnon. See all of the links and information in the original post.
+1 that this should probably be taken to MetaTalk if you don't think is an appropriate topic for Metafilter.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 8:43 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
+1 that this should probably be taken to MetaTalk if you don't think is an appropriate topic for Metafilter.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 8:43 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
The equivalent Metafilter discussion on a congressional hearing on QANON conspiracies would absolutely be an appropriate, a demand that QANON beliefs be treated respectfully would not be.
posted by Artw at 8:59 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:59 AM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
Do non-terrestrial sentient beings exist, and do they walk among us?
...Louie Gohmert came from _somewhere_.
posted by delfin at 9:00 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
...Louie Gohmert came from _somewhere_.
posted by delfin at 9:00 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
It certainly doesn't help that one of the shows mentioned has Qanon levels of credibility, major cable network support notwithstanding.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:04 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:04 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
We as much evidence for these being aliens as we do for them being angelic beings, ann undiscovered animal species, glitch in the simulation, etc. Why aliens instead of these other explanations?
posted by interogative mood at 9:04 AM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 9:04 AM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
I live with black cats and I'm humble about my sensing apparatus such that my adequate eyesight (never worn or needed glasses) is often interpreted by my brain to have a cat where there's a pair of black boots or a shadow. Our sensory apparatus is not always accurate and can be misled.
inire: governments in general, and the us government in particular, are perfectly capable of keeping secrets (and / or suppressing or undermining any disclosure of said secrets) for a very long time
Let's consider: Wikileaks, Ed Snowden, Chelsea Mannning, Reality Winner, Jack Teixera of Massachusetts Air National Guard... not so far this century.
I saw a preview of Reality, the movie of the transcript of Reality Leigh Winner's initial interview and arrest. Her eventual concession was that Fox News was denying Russian interference in the election and she knew / the federal clandestine infrastructure knew but were not acting patriotically to protect liberty and democracy.
I can imagine tha there's a lot of people involved in any supposed UAP cover-up who might think the better choice for wealth inequality, healthcare, climate change, justice and more reasons is to share this bounty from another civilisation.
posted by k3ninho at 9:09 AM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
inire: governments in general, and the us government in particular, are perfectly capable of keeping secrets (and / or suppressing or undermining any disclosure of said secrets) for a very long time
Let's consider: Wikileaks, Ed Snowden, Chelsea Mannning, Reality Winner, Jack Teixera of Massachusetts Air National Guard... not so far this century.
I saw a preview of Reality, the movie of the transcript of Reality Leigh Winner's initial interview and arrest. Her eventual concession was that Fox News was denying Russian interference in the election and she knew / the federal clandestine infrastructure knew but were not acting patriotically to protect liberty and democracy.
I can imagine tha there's a lot of people involved in any supposed UAP cover-up who might think the better choice for wealth inequality, healthcare, climate change, justice and more reasons is to share this bounty from another civilisation.
posted by k3ninho at 9:09 AM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
>It certainly doesn't help that one of the shows mentioned has Qanon levels of credibility
That's not correct. Qanon is just a vile comparison and it doesn't do the skeptic side any favours to pretend that a partisan, astroturfed, fringe conspiracy is the same as the current UAP phenomena - non-partisan, reported by mainstream press, supported by military insiders, and various scientists.
Also I have no idea why "reality TV" is meant to be such a slur in relation to Dr. Travis Taylor - Gordon Ramsey is famous for his reality TV shows but I think we can acknowledge he is also an excellent restauranteur and chef.
posted by iivix at 9:10 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
That's not correct. Qanon is just a vile comparison and it doesn't do the skeptic side any favours to pretend that a partisan, astroturfed, fringe conspiracy is the same as the current UAP phenomena - non-partisan, reported by mainstream press, supported by military insiders, and various scientists.
Also I have no idea why "reality TV" is meant to be such a slur in relation to Dr. Travis Taylor - Gordon Ramsey is famous for his reality TV shows but I think we can acknowledge he is also an excellent restauranteur and chef.
posted by iivix at 9:10 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Skinwalker ranch mythology has all kinds of QANON belief crossover because all of these things draw from the same pool of conspiracy dreck.
But the methodology is the important thing, more so than the payload, as it’s the same kind of constant recycling of non-evidence as evidence for things it doesn’t support, and then when that hooks someone’s interest that itself is laundered as proof.
posted by Artw at 9:12 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
But the methodology is the important thing, more so than the payload, as it’s the same kind of constant recycling of non-evidence as evidence for things it doesn’t support, and then when that hooks someone’s interest that itself is laundered as proof.
posted by Artw at 9:12 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
Gordon Ramsay puts on an act in his shows, bruh.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:14 AM on July 18, 2023
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:14 AM on July 18, 2023
Have you actually watched Skinwalker Ranch Artw? There is nothing QAnon about it. Like, please show me a clip, a transcript, where you can identify a Qanon thread at all.
posted by iivix at 9:15 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by iivix at 9:15 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
He also seems to be relatively well-regarded by his peers, at least for his culinary efforts, he's not considered as some sort of crackpot.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:16 AM on July 18, 2023
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 9:16 AM on July 18, 2023
Clearly been anally probed a few times too often, though. You don't get forehead wrinkles like that without injecting some Klingon DNA.
posted by flabdablet at 9:19 AM on July 18, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 9:19 AM on July 18, 2023
Let's consider: Wikileaks, Ed Snowden, Chelsea Mannning, Reality Winner, Jack Teixera of Massachusetts Air National Guard... not so far this century.
Some secrets leaking does not mean all secrets have leaked or will.
posted by achrise at 9:28 AM on July 18, 2023
Some secrets leaking does not mean all secrets have leaked or will.
posted by achrise at 9:28 AM on July 18, 2023
6,000 years to reach it. That's far too long in terms of human lifetimes but easily doable for a machine
This idea that machines are somehow more resilient than we are is a remarkable conceit when even a very simple machine like Stonehenge falls apart within a few millennia, and our complicated stuff is more frail than a sprightly nonagenarian. I understand that the vacuum of space is like a tomb, but even a tomb is not forever.
posted by dmh at 9:29 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
This idea that machines are somehow more resilient than we are is a remarkable conceit when even a very simple machine like Stonehenge falls apart within a few millennia, and our complicated stuff is more frail than a sprightly nonagenarian. I understand that the vacuum of space is like a tomb, but even a tomb is not forever.
posted by dmh at 9:29 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
Let's consider: Wikileaks, Ed Snowden, Chelsea Mannning, Reality Winner, Jack Teixera of Massachusetts Air National Guard... not so far this century.
that sure is some critical thinking!
some secrets leaking doesn't mean all secrets must have leaked or are going to leak. especially not when 'secrets' is being interpreted here as ranging from technically classified material that was accessible to hundreds of thousands of military personnel and contractors, to what are alleged to be secrets withheld from congress and multiple presidents. seems like there might be a relevant distinction there?
(on preview, jinx achrise.)
posted by inire at 9:31 AM on July 18, 2023
that sure is some critical thinking!
some secrets leaking doesn't mean all secrets must have leaked or are going to leak. especially not when 'secrets' is being interpreted here as ranging from technically classified material that was accessible to hundreds of thousands of military personnel and contractors, to what are alleged to be secrets withheld from congress and multiple presidents. seems like there might be a relevant distinction there?
(on preview, jinx achrise.)
posted by inire at 9:31 AM on July 18, 2023
> Some secrets leaking does not mean all secrets have leaked or will.
Also another terrible skeptic argument - why are there no whistleblowers? I mean, there have been plenty, and there's one right now, David Grusch, it's just every time one comes along they're written off as hoaxers or grifters. Can't win that one.
posted by iivix at 9:32 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Also another terrible skeptic argument - why are there no whistleblowers? I mean, there have been plenty, and there's one right now, David Grusch, it's just every time one comes along they're written off as hoaxers or grifters. Can't win that one.
posted by iivix at 9:32 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
in re the resilience of machines the Mars Rover didn't even make an entire (standard) human lifetime, did it?
posted by supermedusa at 9:37 AM on July 18, 2023
posted by supermedusa at 9:37 AM on July 18, 2023
David Grusch’s “whistleblowing” is exactly the kind of attempt to launder a lack of evidence into belief I mentioned above.
posted by Artw at 9:37 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:37 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
(I don't know who needs to read an article about how many restaurants featured on Gordon Ramsey's tv show are still in business, but here's one.)
posted by box at 9:40 AM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by box at 9:40 AM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Another conspiracy theory:
For decades the US government has been keeping curious, obsessive people distracted and occupied with a slow drip of UFO-related info.
posted by mmrtnt at 9:42 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
For decades the US government has been keeping curious, obsessive people distracted and occupied with a slow drip of UFO-related info.
posted by mmrtnt at 9:42 AM on July 18, 2023 [8 favorites]
inire: that sure is some critical thinking!
Why d'you choose to play the person, not argue the point?
I understand that there's layers of secrecy, and some secrets get "eyes only, no online" or "only people named on this list" but this is material of the gravity of the atomic bomb without a known wartime competition fighting for lives and territory.
Humanitarian drive caused the leaks of the photos of Iraq prisoner treatment and of the video from helicopter gunships shooting civilians. That same drive would cause leakers.
I know you want to believe, I did too, once, and I got a bum deal from people ripping me off. Take care of yourself.
posted by k3ninho at 9:46 AM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
Why d'you choose to play the person, not argue the point?
I understand that there's layers of secrecy, and some secrets get "eyes only, no online" or "only people named on this list" but this is material of the gravity of the atomic bomb without a known wartime competition fighting for lives and territory.
Humanitarian drive caused the leaks of the photos of Iraq prisoner treatment and of the video from helicopter gunships shooting civilians. That same drive would cause leakers.
I know you want to believe, I did too, once, and I got a bum deal from people ripping me off. Take care of yourself.
posted by k3ninho at 9:46 AM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
For decades the US government has been keeping curious, obsessive people distracted and occupied with a slow drip of UFO-related info.
Cheaper than acid brothels.
(I don't know who needs to read an article about how many restaurants featured on Gordon Ramsey's tv show are still in business, but here's one.)
I would have methodology questions - what’s the control here?
And, looping back to the subject of the thread, if it turned out the closure rate of restaurants was shockingly high with or without Ramsey, but they elided that, would this be an example of playing on motivated reasoning to get people to a conclusion that a set of evidence doesn’t really support? Are we being manipulated into being Ramsey Truthers?
posted by Artw at 9:50 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Cheaper than acid brothels.
(I don't know who needs to read an article about how many restaurants featured on Gordon Ramsey's tv show are still in business, but here's one.)
I would have methodology questions - what’s the control here?
And, looping back to the subject of the thread, if it turned out the closure rate of restaurants was shockingly high with or without Ramsey, but they elided that, would this be an example of playing on motivated reasoning to get people to a conclusion that a set of evidence doesn’t really support? Are we being manipulated into being Ramsey Truthers?
posted by Artw at 9:50 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Also, here's the pilot of Skinwalker Ranch.
The first shot is a title card that reads 'Skinwalker Ranch has been a center of UFO and paranormal activity for 200 years.'
Per Wikipedia, the first recorded claims about UFOs appeared in 1996. To give the History Channel the benefit of the doubt (which, having seen some chunks of their show about Oak Island, I'm not sure is really deserved), maybe they're saying that aliens did a bunch of cattle mutilations over the last 200 years? The people who owned the ranch from 1934-1994 do not seem to agree with that assertion.
Today is the first I've heard of Skinwalker Ranch--my natural tendency is to skepticism, but I'd like to think I was reasonably impartial on these claims going in.
It sounds to me like Terry Sherman is a liar, and both Harry Reid and Ted Stevens were part of a long line of suckers.
(I should add that, beyond a vague admiration for the Drake equation, I don't really have a take one way or the other about the existence of aliens generally--I'm just talking about this site.)
posted by box at 9:54 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
The first shot is a title card that reads 'Skinwalker Ranch has been a center of UFO and paranormal activity for 200 years.'
Per Wikipedia, the first recorded claims about UFOs appeared in 1996. To give the History Channel the benefit of the doubt (which, having seen some chunks of their show about Oak Island, I'm not sure is really deserved), maybe they're saying that aliens did a bunch of cattle mutilations over the last 200 years? The people who owned the ranch from 1934-1994 do not seem to agree with that assertion.
Today is the first I've heard of Skinwalker Ranch--my natural tendency is to skepticism, but I'd like to think I was reasonably impartial on these claims going in.
It sounds to me like Terry Sherman is a liar, and both Harry Reid and Ted Stevens were part of a long line of suckers.
(I should add that, beyond a vague admiration for the Drake equation, I don't really have a take one way or the other about the existence of aliens generally--I'm just talking about this site.)
posted by box at 9:54 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Why d'you choose to play the person, not argue the point?
i think i did argue the point, but i'm sorry for prefacing that with snark - i find it somewhat frustrating when people advocating for critical thinking fail to demonstrate it themselves, but you aren't one of the people doing that, so apologies for taking that frustration out on you.
posted by inire at 9:57 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
i think i did argue the point, but i'm sorry for prefacing that with snark - i find it somewhat frustrating when people advocating for critical thinking fail to demonstrate it themselves, but you aren't one of the people doing that, so apologies for taking that frustration out on you.
posted by inire at 9:57 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Artw: "The equivalent Metafilter discussion on a congressional hearing on QANON conspiracies would absolutely be an appropriate, a demand that QANON beliefs be treated respectfully would not be."
I mean, the post itself is about bipartisan Senate legislation submitted by the current (Democratic) majority leader, along with previous stories from mainstream media and reports direct from NASA and the Department of Defense. Bit of a far cry from anonymous 8chan posts. And the first person to mention the Skinwalker weirdos was you, which in retrospect feels like kind of a derail. This topic has long been fertile ground for cranks and grifters but at this point that fringe has been overtaken by plenty of legitimate interest from actual scientific, military, and government leaders who have no reason to humor a bunch of powerless crackpots.
Again, this isn't to say that the conspiracists are correct and astro-dimensional demon angels signed a gold-fringed treaty with the shadow president in 1952, but there's clearly something bizarre and inexplicable that's caught the attention of Senate leadership, the Five Eyes agencies, NASA, the Pentagon, multiple high-level military analysts, etc., enough to break longstanding taboos and put serious effort and reputational risk into investigating. Maybe it's next-gen foreign spy drones, maybe it's super-covert unaccountable skunkworks, maybe it's a network of hoaxsters that's wormed their way into critical positions. But something strange is going on, and dismissing any interest in finding out with ugly comparisons to supernatural reality TV nonsense or toxic extremist internet cults isn't doing the discussion any favors.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:04 AM on July 18, 2023 [19 favorites]
I mean, the post itself is about bipartisan Senate legislation submitted by the current (Democratic) majority leader, along with previous stories from mainstream media and reports direct from NASA and the Department of Defense. Bit of a far cry from anonymous 8chan posts. And the first person to mention the Skinwalker weirdos was you, which in retrospect feels like kind of a derail. This topic has long been fertile ground for cranks and grifters but at this point that fringe has been overtaken by plenty of legitimate interest from actual scientific, military, and government leaders who have no reason to humor a bunch of powerless crackpots.
Again, this isn't to say that the conspiracists are correct and astro-dimensional demon angels signed a gold-fringed treaty with the shadow president in 1952, but there's clearly something bizarre and inexplicable that's caught the attention of Senate leadership, the Five Eyes agencies, NASA, the Pentagon, multiple high-level military analysts, etc., enough to break longstanding taboos and put serious effort and reputational risk into investigating. Maybe it's next-gen foreign spy drones, maybe it's super-covert unaccountable skunkworks, maybe it's a network of hoaxsters that's wormed their way into critical positions. But something strange is going on, and dismissing any interest in finding out with ugly comparisons to supernatural reality TV nonsense or toxic extremist internet cults isn't doing the discussion any favors.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:04 AM on July 18, 2023 [19 favorites]
something strange is going on
Or at least something blurry that lends itself to misinterpretation.
posted by flabdablet at 10:49 AM on July 18, 2023 [13 favorites]
Or at least something blurry that lends itself to misinterpretation.
posted by flabdablet at 10:49 AM on July 18, 2023 [13 favorites]
This idea that machines are somehow more resilient than we are is a remarkable conceit when even a very simple machine like Stonehenge falls apart within a few millennia, and our complicated stuff is more frail than a sprightly nonagenarian. I understand that the vacuum of space is like a tomb, but even a tomb is not forever.
this elides two different meaning of 'machine', and assumes that the resiliency of our machines (the only kind we're familiar with) has any bearing whatsoever on the resiliency of machines that might be produced by a far more advanced civilisation. that assumption is entirely unfounded.
David Grusch’s “whistleblowing” is exactly the kind of attempt to launder a lack of evidence into belief I mentioned above.
this assumes that grusch's whistleblowing is mendacious because he opted to follow the prescribed and protected route for whistleblowers (i.e. go via the icig and congress without publicly disclosing classified information) rather than doing a snowden. it also seems to be assuming that the lack of publicly disclosed meaningful evidence (e.g. first-hand accounts, images, data, etc. from craft recoveries) demonstrates that no such evidence has been disclosed anywhere else, and possibly that no such evidence exists at all (although correct me if that's a misreading). those assumptions would also be unfounded.
posted by inire at 11:08 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
this elides two different meaning of 'machine', and assumes that the resiliency of our machines (the only kind we're familiar with) has any bearing whatsoever on the resiliency of machines that might be produced by a far more advanced civilisation. that assumption is entirely unfounded.
David Grusch’s “whistleblowing” is exactly the kind of attempt to launder a lack of evidence into belief I mentioned above.
this assumes that grusch's whistleblowing is mendacious because he opted to follow the prescribed and protected route for whistleblowers (i.e. go via the icig and congress without publicly disclosing classified information) rather than doing a snowden. it also seems to be assuming that the lack of publicly disclosed meaningful evidence (e.g. first-hand accounts, images, data, etc. from craft recoveries) demonstrates that no such evidence has been disclosed anywhere else, and possibly that no such evidence exists at all (although correct me if that's a misreading). those assumptions would also be unfounded.
posted by inire at 11:08 AM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
what do the aliens taste like
posted by user92371 at 11:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by user92371 at 11:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
I have no real horse in this fight but to lobby for an understanding that there's an important difference between zero and non-zero, or between infinity and really really big.
Except that there isn't, practically. "Infinitesimally close to zero" should be treated as zero for practical/engineering/real-world purposes. The difference between the two is of interest to theoreticians, mainly.
This is a hobby-horse of mine because it's one of those cognitive traps that humans fall into, of thinking that if there's some chance of something happening, then it's worth planning for and spending time thinking about. This is usually not true, except as thought experiments. E.g. your chances of winning the Powerball are so remote as to essentially be zero, therefore your retirement planning doesn't need to include a section on "But if I win the Powerball...". If you want to dream about that, fine, but it's not something that bears assigning planning resources to.
And yet, as soon as people hear that the odds of something happening aren't absolutely zero, it tickles a weirdly irrational "SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?" reflex. No. Not when you are talking about anything less than around 1 in a million or so; humans can't comprehend large numbers like that very well, and we are almost always better off just rounding that value to zero, than trying to figure out how to put such a fantastically tiny number into our day-to-day lives or plans.
That said: I think Congress is probably onto something, in that the DoD probably has records up the wazoo of weird phenomena that it doesn't disclose to anyone, including Congress, and slapping the Pentagon once in a while and making sure it's not sitting on a Smaug-like trove of records related to anything of civilian interest is good. My guess is we might get to learn about some interesting Cold War shit as a result of this, and maybe some neat experimental aircraft or pre-satellite surveillance programs or something.
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [13 favorites]
Except that there isn't, practically. "Infinitesimally close to zero" should be treated as zero for practical/engineering/real-world purposes. The difference between the two is of interest to theoreticians, mainly.
This is a hobby-horse of mine because it's one of those cognitive traps that humans fall into, of thinking that if there's some chance of something happening, then it's worth planning for and spending time thinking about. This is usually not true, except as thought experiments. E.g. your chances of winning the Powerball are so remote as to essentially be zero, therefore your retirement planning doesn't need to include a section on "But if I win the Powerball...". If you want to dream about that, fine, but it's not something that bears assigning planning resources to.
And yet, as soon as people hear that the odds of something happening aren't absolutely zero, it tickles a weirdly irrational "SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?" reflex. No. Not when you are talking about anything less than around 1 in a million or so; humans can't comprehend large numbers like that very well, and we are almost always better off just rounding that value to zero, than trying to figure out how to put such a fantastically tiny number into our day-to-day lives or plans.
That said: I think Congress is probably onto something, in that the DoD probably has records up the wazoo of weird phenomena that it doesn't disclose to anyone, including Congress, and slapping the Pentagon once in a while and making sure it's not sitting on a Smaug-like trove of records related to anything of civilian interest is good. My guess is we might get to learn about some interesting Cold War shit as a result of this, and maybe some neat experimental aircraft or pre-satellite surveillance programs or something.
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:28 AM on July 18, 2023 [13 favorites]
The Groom Lake "UFOs" turned out to be test concepts of stuff like stealth technology, and IIRC they were quite happy to let cranks come up with conspiracy theories for decades before they fessed up. By far the most likely explanation of what the military is hiding (if anything) is some modern-day skunkworks project that we'll know all about in 2040 or something.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 11:55 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 11:55 AM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
What about:
In Brazil?
Or Zimbabwe?
Or France?
I'm not familiar with the other two, but the Zimbabwe link is to the Ariel school incident, where all the witness were children 6-12 years old despite there also being adults at the school. The claims that their stories matched without them possibly being able to share details come from a ufologist who went in predisposed to that interpretation. It's an extremely weak case.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 12:12 PM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
In Brazil?
Or Zimbabwe?
Or France?
I'm not familiar with the other two, but the Zimbabwe link is to the Ariel school incident, where all the witness were children 6-12 years old despite there also being adults at the school. The claims that their stories matched without them possibly being able to share details come from a ufologist who went in predisposed to that interpretation. It's an extremely weak case.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 12:12 PM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
I highly recommend the 2022 documentary called Ariel Phenomenon (trailer on YouTube) about the Ariel school encounter. By which I mean, it's an excellent, enthralling documentary that gets into all these details and is suitable for skeptics and believers alike.
posted by iivix at 12:25 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by iivix at 12:25 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
From the reviews on IMDB, people seem somewhat concerned that he's not giving Valléean extradimensionals and and/or angels enough credit, so I'm not entirely sure that it's got a lot to offer a skeptic?
posted by sagc at 12:32 PM on July 18, 2023
posted by sagc at 12:32 PM on July 18, 2023
"Enthralling" is just another word for "trying to convince the audience without relying on substance". You know what's persuasive? Verifiable evidence that doesn't rely on handwave-y narratives & having already bought into a world-view that then asks the audience to prove its way out from the inside. Evidence is boring. If you're being entertained by someone painting stories of forbidden knowledge & secret worlds, someone's either trying to sell you something or keep you distracted while they pick your pocket. Or both.
posted by CrystalDave at 12:42 PM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by CrystalDave at 12:42 PM on July 18, 2023 [7 favorites]
I highly recommend the 2022 documentary called Ariel Phenomenon (trailer on YouTube) about the Ariel school encounter.
On the off change you've seen Jeremy Corbell's doc on Bob Lazar and Area 51, would you say it's more or less convincing than that? I thought it was interesting work, but I didn't come away with my mind changed or particularly challenged. I'm wondering what the standard of compelling proof is here.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 12:50 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
On the off change you've seen Jeremy Corbell's doc on Bob Lazar and Area 51, would you say it's more or less convincing than that? I thought it was interesting work, but I didn't come away with my mind changed or particularly challenged. I'm wondering what the standard of compelling proof is here.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 12:50 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
The work product of recent US military analysts on UAP has been terrible. Things they’ve described as UAP have turned out to be stars, civilian aircraft, birds and balloons photographed under parallax, etc. Triangle shaped objects have turned out to be just be artifacts created by aircraft lights interacting with the camera shutter.
It is the Stargate Project all over again. For those unfamiliar — from 1979 to the mid 1990s the US army operated a Psychic battalion based in Ft Meade focused on things like remote viewing and other ways to find military applications of “psychic” powers. They produced regular reports and made all kinds of claims. They had Uri Geller as a technical advisor iirc. Eventually of course skeptics came in and debunked the whole thing, resulting it in being shut down. The book “The Men Who State at Goats” covers it all in detail.
posted by interogative mood at 12:54 PM on July 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
It is the Stargate Project all over again. For those unfamiliar — from 1979 to the mid 1990s the US army operated a Psychic battalion based in Ft Meade focused on things like remote viewing and other ways to find military applications of “psychic” powers. They produced regular reports and made all kinds of claims. They had Uri Geller as a technical advisor iirc. Eventually of course skeptics came in and debunked the whole thing, resulting it in being shut down. The book “The Men Who State at Goats” covers it all in detail.
posted by interogative mood at 12:54 PM on July 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
It is, as noted above, extremely telling to me that some of it seemed like it could be balloons, and then we had an actual balloon crisis, and yet nobody is making a big deal about taut being a real phenomena they possibly caught.
posted by Artw at 1:05 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 1:05 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
slapping the Pentagon once in a while and making sure it's not sitting on a Smaug-like trove of records related to anything of civilian interest is good.
I agree. How about slapping them to disgorge the records that show how they try to justify the trillions (yes, with a T) dollars that the US spends on conducting perpetual war all over the globe - wars that the US media are mysteriously much less energized by than this steaming pile of kindergarten-grade space alien horseshit?
posted by flabdablet at 1:05 PM on July 18, 2023 [9 favorites]
I agree. How about slapping them to disgorge the records that show how they try to justify the trillions (yes, with a T) dollars that the US spends on conducting perpetual war all over the globe - wars that the US media are mysteriously much less energized by than this steaming pile of kindergarten-grade space alien horseshit?
posted by flabdablet at 1:05 PM on July 18, 2023 [9 favorites]
in re the resilience of machines the Mars Rover didn't even make an entire (standard) human lifetime, did it?
It wasn't supposed to. The life time of machines is proportional to how much you spend and in the case of rovers how much you want to spend on boost. Quadruple the budget of any rover and you would probably see twice the lifetime, if that is trade off the owners wanted and not say twice the science over the same time.
Contrast the Mars Rovers with Voyager which is still sending back data decades after its planned lifetime.
We are rapidly approaching the point where, if we wanted to, we could make self repairing machines that would last 1000+ years. All you would need is desire and a butt load of money. We only choose not to because humanity is basically short sighted. It is very difficult to get people to spend money on things they won't personally benefit from.
posted by Mitheral at 1:22 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
It wasn't supposed to. The life time of machines is proportional to how much you spend and in the case of rovers how much you want to spend on boost. Quadruple the budget of any rover and you would probably see twice the lifetime, if that is trade off the owners wanted and not say twice the science over the same time.
Contrast the Mars Rovers with Voyager which is still sending back data decades after its planned lifetime.
We are rapidly approaching the point where, if we wanted to, we could make self repairing machines that would last 1000+ years. All you would need is desire and a butt load of money. We only choose not to because humanity is basically short sighted. It is very difficult to get people to spend money on things they won't personally benefit from.
posted by Mitheral at 1:22 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
coming at it from, i guess, a more pragmatic angle, the thing for me is this: what do i gain, emotionally, mentally, or psychologically, for investing belief in aliens, ufos, and the like?
if the aliens are real but so well hidden and covered up as they must be for that to be true, i do not see what i get out of the "bargain" of believing that they are real. i cannot do anything with this belief. it affects my life none at all. i still have to work, i still have to pay rent and buy food and gasoline. if i am suddenly moved today by an argument to support the theory of the existence of alien life absent any strong compelling evidence, my life changes basically not at all, except perhaps in a negative way by additional frustration.
if next week, or next year, or whenever, a press conference is held and it is announced that aliens are real, they've been our secret partners since 1947, and here is the alien spokesalien to take questions and here's the website to sign up on the waiting list for flying saucer rides, then i can decide what impact that will have on my life and philosophy going forward, but until that happens i would be a fool, in my opinion, to invest any sort of emotion or significant thought on living my life as if aliens are among us.
if the aliens are so well-hidden to appear plausibly non-existent, then the aliens are effectively non-existent for me. when strong evidence for the aliens is presented i will adjust my outlook on life as needed. until then, it is nothing but a thought experiment.
posted by glonous keming at 1:23 PM on July 18, 2023 [9 favorites]
if the aliens are real but so well hidden and covered up as they must be for that to be true, i do not see what i get out of the "bargain" of believing that they are real. i cannot do anything with this belief. it affects my life none at all. i still have to work, i still have to pay rent and buy food and gasoline. if i am suddenly moved today by an argument to support the theory of the existence of alien life absent any strong compelling evidence, my life changes basically not at all, except perhaps in a negative way by additional frustration.
if next week, or next year, or whenever, a press conference is held and it is announced that aliens are real, they've been our secret partners since 1947, and here is the alien spokesalien to take questions and here's the website to sign up on the waiting list for flying saucer rides, then i can decide what impact that will have on my life and philosophy going forward, but until that happens i would be a fool, in my opinion, to invest any sort of emotion or significant thought on living my life as if aliens are among us.
if the aliens are so well-hidden to appear plausibly non-existent, then the aliens are effectively non-existent for me. when strong evidence for the aliens is presented i will adjust my outlook on life as needed. until then, it is nothing but a thought experiment.
posted by glonous keming at 1:23 PM on July 18, 2023 [9 favorites]
If aliens who could cross interstellar distances wanted to hide there would be nothing to cover up because there is no possible way people with that kind of tech can try to hide from us and fail.
posted by sotonohito at 1:51 PM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by sotonohito at 1:51 PM on July 18, 2023 [4 favorites]
Also, Roadside Picnic (by the Strugatsky brothers) should be required reading for any discussion of client contact.
posted by From Bklyn at 2:00 PM on July 18, 2023
posted by From Bklyn at 2:00 PM on July 18, 2023
Also "skinwalker" is a Native American term that seems to have been used by a bunch of white people to gin up tourism and waste federal grant money, which is not a great look either.
I mean, seriously, how does that name not get an automatic eye-roll and hard-pass from everyone out there? It's 2023, I would hope we could do better than to give airtime to people who are just throwing Navajo legends on things to make them seem more mystical to white folks.
posted by Gygesringtone at 2:07 PM on July 18, 2023 [10 favorites]
I mean, seriously, how does that name not get an automatic eye-roll and hard-pass from everyone out there? It's 2023, I would hope we could do better than to give airtime to people who are just throwing Navajo legends on things to make them seem more mystical to white folks.
posted by Gygesringtone at 2:07 PM on July 18, 2023 [10 favorites]
and then we had an actual balloon crisis, and yet nobody is making a big deal about taut being a real phenomena they possibly caught.
This is admittedly speculation on my part, but it seems like the Biden administration has decided to downplay the Great Big Chinese Reconnaissance Balloon Incident because (1) it creates a talking point for Republicans to claim that the Administration is "weak" on defense because they didn't, I dunno, shoot it down and dump flaming, possibly radioactive, almost certainly toxic, debris on the continental US; and (2) it can only raise tensions with China at a time when things in that arena are tense enough already.
It's been noted in the press that the military were aware of Chinese balloon overflights and a number of them have happened in the last few years (including, notably, under the previous Administration); we don't know for sure, but there may well have been some sort of gentleman's agreement between China and the US similar to the formal "Open Skies" arrangement we used to have with the Russians (née Soviets) for eyeballing each others' missile sites as a strategic stabilization mechanism. We might have been more or less turning a blind eye to their balloons in exchange for them, I dunno, not blinding our recon satellites with ground-based lasers or something whenever they're over Chinese missile fields.
At least, until someone in China decided to be a dick and force the issue by flying a really big payload at stupidly low altitude, where any idiot could see it. That might be a sign that hard-liners in their military are gaining power or some sort of internal power play on their end, more than anything truly to do with the US. A lot of Chinese actions have more to do with optics within China or even within the leadership clique than external perception, at least from what I can tell.
posted by Kadin2048 at 2:11 PM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
This is admittedly speculation on my part, but it seems like the Biden administration has decided to downplay the Great Big Chinese Reconnaissance Balloon Incident because (1) it creates a talking point for Republicans to claim that the Administration is "weak" on defense because they didn't, I dunno, shoot it down and dump flaming, possibly radioactive, almost certainly toxic, debris on the continental US; and (2) it can only raise tensions with China at a time when things in that arena are tense enough already.
It's been noted in the press that the military were aware of Chinese balloon overflights and a number of them have happened in the last few years (including, notably, under the previous Administration); we don't know for sure, but there may well have been some sort of gentleman's agreement between China and the US similar to the formal "Open Skies" arrangement we used to have with the Russians (née Soviets) for eyeballing each others' missile sites as a strategic stabilization mechanism. We might have been more or less turning a blind eye to their balloons in exchange for them, I dunno, not blinding our recon satellites with ground-based lasers or something whenever they're over Chinese missile fields.
At least, until someone in China decided to be a dick and force the issue by flying a really big payload at stupidly low altitude, where any idiot could see it. That might be a sign that hard-liners in their military are gaining power or some sort of internal power play on their end, more than anything truly to do with the US. A lot of Chinese actions have more to do with optics within China or even within the leadership clique than external perception, at least from what I can tell.
posted by Kadin2048 at 2:11 PM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
Contrast the Mars Rovers with Voyager which is still sending back data decades after its planned lifetime.
Voyager is a marvel, but over the decades of its lifetime has required constant maintenance and upkeep. Without us — Voyager's life support — it would long be dead.
We are rapidly approaching the point where, if we wanted to, we could make self repairing machines that would last 1000+ years. All you would need is desire and a butt load of money. We only choose not to because humanity is basically short sighted.
I doubt that for two reasons. First because we have the example of software. Theoretically, software machines don't have to deal with any of the major challenges to longevity. There's no friction, no erosion, no oxidization, no parasites; it's barely touched by the passage of time. Yet its effective lifespan is generally less than that of a grandfather's clock. So, even machines unburdened by entropy seem to rapidly come undone.
This leads to the second point. Maybe it is a matter of money, effort. Always a possibility! Hope springs eternal. But if we look at the gargantuan amounts of money and effort that were expended in the past, on say the Great Pyramid of Giza, then thus far, effort and money seem to have come up short. To be fair to the Egyptians (& their 👽 helpers), the Great Pyramid is an extraordinary accomplishment! If only because it's still around. But it's also clear that it's an empty husk — as far as we can ascertain, it failed to carry the king's spirit to the heavens, and it long ago failed to safeguard his corpse.
posted by dmh at 2:17 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Voyager is a marvel, but over the decades of its lifetime has required constant maintenance and upkeep. Without us — Voyager's life support — it would long be dead.
We are rapidly approaching the point where, if we wanted to, we could make self repairing machines that would last 1000+ years. All you would need is desire and a butt load of money. We only choose not to because humanity is basically short sighted.
I doubt that for two reasons. First because we have the example of software. Theoretically, software machines don't have to deal with any of the major challenges to longevity. There's no friction, no erosion, no oxidization, no parasites; it's barely touched by the passage of time. Yet its effective lifespan is generally less than that of a grandfather's clock. So, even machines unburdened by entropy seem to rapidly come undone.
This leads to the second point. Maybe it is a matter of money, effort. Always a possibility! Hope springs eternal. But if we look at the gargantuan amounts of money and effort that were expended in the past, on say the Great Pyramid of Giza, then thus far, effort and money seem to have come up short. To be fair to the Egyptians (& their 👽 helpers), the Great Pyramid is an extraordinary accomplishment! If only because it's still around. But it's also clear that it's an empty husk — as far as we can ascertain, it failed to carry the king's spirit to the heavens, and it long ago failed to safeguard his corpse.
posted by dmh at 2:17 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
[1] Notice how the UFO's got a lot more shy after everyone started carrying around high definition digital cameras? Funny that. Just ike ghosts suddenly got more shy with the rise of camera phones...
assumes UFOs and ghosts aren't smart enough to keep their distance with the advent of new tech here on earth.
posted by philip-random at 3:16 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
assumes UFOs and ghosts aren't smart enough to keep their distance with the advent of new tech here on earth.
posted by philip-random at 3:16 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
assumes UFOs and ghosts aren't smart enough to keep their distance with the advent of new tech here on earth.
Sorry I didn't save who wrote it, but one of my favorite every Metafilter comments about ghosts, and equally applies to aliens (and I know people who write software for the Air Force and work at Area 51 occasionally). If they study aliens there, it's a tiny corner in the back.
""
Why don't ghosts or other supernatural entities, or folk's god(s) do useful things? It's always knocking shit off a shelf or sparking around in an old radio.
Where's the cash? Where's the help finding those keys? Where is the lipstick message on the mirror that those pants with that shirt is a huge mistake?
And how friggin depressing would it be that yes, life after death (??) is a reality, but you're going to turn into a helpless, nearly powerless entity who can only flail at the living incoherently?
"""
And that equally applies to aliens. How depressing is it to cross the galaxy only to die in a crash and be trapped in an unmarked room where nobody cares that much about you or thinks you are particularly special and only a few hack scientists get to study you?
posted by The_Vegetables at 3:23 PM on July 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
Sorry I didn't save who wrote it, but one of my favorite every Metafilter comments about ghosts, and equally applies to aliens (and I know people who write software for the Air Force and work at Area 51 occasionally). If they study aliens there, it's a tiny corner in the back.
""
Why don't ghosts or other supernatural entities, or folk's god(s) do useful things? It's always knocking shit off a shelf or sparking around in an old radio.
Where's the cash? Where's the help finding those keys? Where is the lipstick message on the mirror that those pants with that shirt is a huge mistake?
And how friggin depressing would it be that yes, life after death (??) is a reality, but you're going to turn into a helpless, nearly powerless entity who can only flail at the living incoherently?
"""
And that equally applies to aliens. How depressing is it to cross the galaxy only to die in a crash and be trapped in an unmarked room where nobody cares that much about you or thinks you are particularly special and only a few hack scientists get to study you?
posted by The_Vegetables at 3:23 PM on July 18, 2023 [6 favorites]
I want to know what it is that these supposedly advanced tech wielding aliens are learning from anal probes that they can't learn with other less invasive means?
Or do they just do it that way for laughs?
posted by Pouteria at 3:30 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Or do they just do it that way for laughs?
posted by Pouteria at 3:30 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Sometimes goes the other way. My favorite technology driven spookums are “orbs” and “rods”. Suspect FLIRs are prone to their own distinctive ghosties.
posted by Artw at 3:31 PM on July 18, 2023
posted by Artw at 3:31 PM on July 18, 2023
dismissing any interest in finding out with ugly comparisons to supernatural reality TV nonsense or toxic extremist internet cults isn't doing the discussion any favors.
People keep bringing up Skinwalker Ranch on the pro side, not the con side. It was initially brought up in this thread as a source of "evidence" supporting the idea that aliens are obviously real and us skeptics just have our heads in the sand, but if you dig into the source links, you find that there are connections between the dumb reality show and the actual Congressional investigation that make the whole thing seem very embarrassing.
I wouldn't personally go so far as to say that belief in UFOs is the same as QAnon, but I will note that if you dig into a lot of the alien lore that's out there (hidden manipulators, reptilian shapeshifters, beautiful tall Nordics), a *lot* of it ends up just being racism, eugenics, and antisemitism when it isn't repackaged angel stories or eschatological salvation myths. It isn't far enough afield for my comfort, is what I mean, and boyyyyyy howdy is there a lot of interpersonal crossover between the space weirdos and the nastier sides of right-wing conspiracism.
posted by Scattercat at 4:26 PM on July 18, 2023 [12 favorites]
People keep bringing up Skinwalker Ranch on the pro side, not the con side. It was initially brought up in this thread as a source of "evidence" supporting the idea that aliens are obviously real and us skeptics just have our heads in the sand, but if you dig into the source links, you find that there are connections between the dumb reality show and the actual Congressional investigation that make the whole thing seem very embarrassing.
I wouldn't personally go so far as to say that belief in UFOs is the same as QAnon, but I will note that if you dig into a lot of the alien lore that's out there (hidden manipulators, reptilian shapeshifters, beautiful tall Nordics), a *lot* of it ends up just being racism, eugenics, and antisemitism when it isn't repackaged angel stories or eschatological salvation myths. It isn't far enough afield for my comfort, is what I mean, and boyyyyyy howdy is there a lot of interpersonal crossover between the space weirdos and the nastier sides of right-wing conspiracism.
posted by Scattercat at 4:26 PM on July 18, 2023 [12 favorites]
governments in general, and the us government in particular, are perfectly capable of keeping secrets (and / or suppressing or undermining any disclosure of said secrets)
Anyone that's worked in public service will know that the proposed legislation will be nothing more than a minor inconvenience for people that want to keep secrets secret. There's a lot than can be hidden within things like 'national security' and, because so few people know the secrets exist in the first place, these tactics rarely get challenged.
On the other hand, the best way to ensure something becomes public can sometimes be to tell everyone it's secret.
posted by dg at 4:26 PM on July 18, 2023
Anyone that's worked in public service will know that the proposed legislation will be nothing more than a minor inconvenience for people that want to keep secrets secret. There's a lot than can be hidden within things like 'national security' and, because so few people know the secrets exist in the first place, these tactics rarely get challenged.
On the other hand, the best way to ensure something becomes public can sometimes be to tell everyone it's secret.
posted by dg at 4:26 PM on July 18, 2023
People keep bringing up Skinwalker Ranch on the pro side, not the con side
I may have brought it up before that, given that the whistleblowing that kicks this off relates to the former UAPTF that had Travis Taylor on its team, and some of the wilder claims in it have a similar flavour.
posted by Artw at 4:34 PM on July 18, 2023
I may have brought it up before that, given that the whistleblowing that kicks this off relates to the former UAPTF that had Travis Taylor on its team, and some of the wilder claims in it have a similar flavour.
posted by Artw at 4:34 PM on July 18, 2023
I want to know what it is that these supposedly advanced tech wielding aliens are learning from anal probes that they can't learn with other less invasive means?
There's a short Canadian documentary about this subject. (nb: gay-related humor that didn't age super great)
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:35 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
There's a short Canadian documentary about this subject. (nb: gay-related humor that didn't age super great)
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 4:35 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Jason Colavito is a good read if you want to start looking into some of the things that come along with these theories, both as presented in Congress and the more obviously antisemitic/conspiratorial stuff more broadly.
posted by sagc at 4:39 PM on July 18, 2023
posted by sagc at 4:39 PM on July 18, 2023
what do the aliens taste likeWell, the typical response would be “tastes like chicken,” but that would assume they come from a similar line of descent to our own. So “chicken” or maybe “crab” depending on their basic plan. If they are from a separate origin of life, they probably taste “inedible” at best and “vile beyond belief” at worst.
I hope that now this vital door is being thrown open by our brave legislature we can finally get the truth about Conan Doyle’s fairy pictures. Sheesh.
posted by Gilgamesh's Chauffeur at 5:17 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
METAFILTER: you find that there are connections between the dumb reality show and the actual Congressional investigation
posted by philip-random at 5:17 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by philip-random at 5:17 PM on July 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oh, and thanks for the mention about Roadside Picnic, I just ordered a copy.
posted by Gilgamesh's Chauffeur at 5:18 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Gilgamesh's Chauffeur at 5:18 PM on July 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
In this video Mick West looks at shocking Skinwalker ranch incident.
He puts in a lot of work to show credible, mundane explanations for the Navy footage with plenty of real world examples of the optical phenomena, really appreciate his channel
posted by jason_steakums at 5:30 PM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
He puts in a lot of work to show credible, mundane explanations for the Navy footage with plenty of real world examples of the optical phenomena, really appreciate his channel
posted by jason_steakums at 5:30 PM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
Jason Colavito is a good read if you want to start looking into some of the things that come along with these theories, both as presented in Congress and the more obviously antisemitic/conspiratorial stuff more broadly.
I don't know much about his current work, but his book "The Cult of Alien Gods: H.P. Lovecraft And Extraterrestrial Pop Culture", which traces the link between Lovecraft and ancient astronaut stuff like von Däniken, is interesting, but full of "The lilly-livered liberals have ruined academia with their moral relativism and feminism", and I would definitely not recommend it.
posted by Joakim Ziegler at 6:30 PM on July 18, 2023
I don't know much about his current work, but his book "The Cult of Alien Gods: H.P. Lovecraft And Extraterrestrial Pop Culture", which traces the link between Lovecraft and ancient astronaut stuff like von Däniken, is interesting, but full of "The lilly-livered liberals have ruined academia with their moral relativism and feminism", and I would definitely not recommend it.
posted by Joakim Ziegler at 6:30 PM on July 18, 2023
[Mick West] puts in a lot of work to show credible, mundane explanations for the Navy footage with plenty of real world examples of the optical phenomena, really appreciate his channel
I don't understand why his debunk videos are credible. Doesn't the US Navy have sonar, radar, infrared, etc... data from the UAP incidents that an ordinary layperson (such as Mick West) would not have access to?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 8:47 PM on July 18, 2023
I don't understand why his debunk videos are credible. Doesn't the US Navy have sonar, radar, infrared, etc... data from the UAP incidents that an ordinary layperson (such as Mick West) would not have access to?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 8:47 PM on July 18, 2023
> Why did we send the golden record into the cosmos?
"Check out my mixtape fam."
posted by sebastienbailard at 8:50 PM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
"Check out my mixtape fam."
posted by sebastienbailard at 8:50 PM on July 18, 2023 [3 favorites]
I suspect the U.S. recovers parts of spacecraft all the time. These “spacecraft” are satellite and rocket parts launched from earth that landed in the ocean or some place the US can get to before others. Those parts are probably shared with Boeing, Lockheed, etc for their engineering analysis.
The details of what we recover and how we do it would fall under extra layers of security because the most critical secrets are “sources and methods”.
If Grusch tried to access those kind of programs and kept pressing it under the mistaken assumption that spacecraft meant aliens or was UAP related then of course they brought the hammer down on him.
That’s my theory anyway. Look at programs were we searched the wrecks of Soviet submarines like Ballard’s titanic expedition or Howard Hughes Glomar Explorer.
posted by interogative mood at 8:58 PM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
The details of what we recover and how we do it would fall under extra layers of security because the most critical secrets are “sources and methods”.
If Grusch tried to access those kind of programs and kept pressing it under the mistaken assumption that spacecraft meant aliens or was UAP related then of course they brought the hammer down on him.
That’s my theory anyway. Look at programs were we searched the wrecks of Soviet submarines like Ballard’s titanic expedition or Howard Hughes Glomar Explorer.
posted by interogative mood at 8:58 PM on July 18, 2023 [5 favorites]
Honestly, this has been one of the most interesting and (in its own way) enlightening MeFi threads ever. The strength and fervor of people's opinions is really far more than I ever would have thought.
I have one question for the people who are pretty or completely convinced that we are looking at aliens and alien technology here: Why, of the entire universe of possible explanations for these various phenomena, do you focus specifically on the "alien beings and technology from another planet" angle?
To me, even if you accept that that there are some phenomena there that don't have an everyday or normal earthly explanation, there are some dozens or hundreds or maybe even thousands of possible alternative explanations that come to mind that don't involve "little green men" type aliens from other planets in the universe, and most of those explanations, are to my mind, a lot more likely than little green men.
Even if you don't agree with that, I still don't understand why aliens/alien technology is the very most likely among all those possible alternative explanations. Can anyone explain this - why the focus on aliens/alien technologies to the exclusion of all other possible alternative explanations?
(To be fair, a few people above have hinted at some alternatives. But those people seem few & far between.)
posted by flug at 12:02 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I have one question for the people who are pretty or completely convinced that we are looking at aliens and alien technology here: Why, of the entire universe of possible explanations for these various phenomena, do you focus specifically on the "alien beings and technology from another planet" angle?
To me, even if you accept that that there are some phenomena there that don't have an everyday or normal earthly explanation, there are some dozens or hundreds or maybe even thousands of possible alternative explanations that come to mind that don't involve "little green men" type aliens from other planets in the universe, and most of those explanations, are to my mind, a lot more likely than little green men.
Even if you don't agree with that, I still don't understand why aliens/alien technology is the very most likely among all those possible alternative explanations. Can anyone explain this - why the focus on aliens/alien technologies to the exclusion of all other possible alternative explanations?
(To be fair, a few people above have hinted at some alternatives. But those people seem few & far between.)
posted by flug at 12:02 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Suspect FLIRs are prone to their own distinctive ghosties.
guys guys we're being invaded by hostile JPEG artifacts
posted by flabdablet at 12:07 AM on July 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
guys guys we're being invaded by hostile JPEG artifacts
posted by flabdablet at 12:07 AM on July 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
> I want to know what it is that these supposedly advanced tech wielding aliens are learning from anal probes that they can't learn with other less invasive means?
- "Hey, the new kid claims that humans communicate via mouth noises and that all this probing is a waste of time."
- "Pshaw, as if the dolphins would have lied to us about that."
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:31 AM on July 19, 2023 [12 favorites]
- "Hey, the new kid claims that humans communicate via mouth noises and that all this probing is a waste of time."
- "Pshaw, as if the dolphins would have lied to us about that."
posted by sebastienbailard at 12:31 AM on July 19, 2023 [12 favorites]
Since everyone else is letting it all hang out, I'll burden you with my opinion of these UAP phenomena (percentages approximate, of course):
- ca. 90% of them have a completely mundane but perhaps un-obvious explanation - strange visual phenomenon, fairly unusual interaction between instruments and what they are observing that throws off users but has an everyday explanation, weather balloons and other such things seen from an unusual vantage point, the planet Venus seen from an odd angle, etc.
- ca. 1%-10% are actual (earthly) enemies that are trying to spy on or monitor us somehow.
- ca. 1%-10% are secret programs of the U.S. government - advanced aircraft, drones, etc etc etc
- Something like 0.01%-1% of the incidents actually could not be explained to my satisfaction even if a rather huge amount of resources were thrown at them.
The last unexplained/unexplainable percentage does not demonstrate that these are aliens or supernatural or whatever, but are simply a fact of life that many - in fact most! - phenomena that we observe out there in the actual universe cannot be explained fully.
The existence of these unexplained things does not prove the existence of aliens etc - that would require actual positive evidence and proof - but it is the space where the supernatural, different dimensions of reality, aliens, or whatever could live if you like to believe in them. You can't prove that these are supernatural/aliens/etc but you also can't completely disprove it. There is some space there for you to believe as you like.
Flip side, to me absolutely none of the videos and other evidence presented so far fits into that final 0.01%-1% category of "unexplained". Just for example, the three videos released by the military a couple of years back all have pretty simple and mundane explanations. David Grusch has tantalizing second-hand reports, but no actual direct evidence of anything. At best, the result of his testimony is "Ok, let's check some things out here." If those investigations result in actual evidence, then there will be evidence. Until then, there is no evidence.
On the other hand, yes absolutely the military etc should investigate these things, and not keep the results secret, etc.
- If there are things they are seeing with their instruments and not fully understanding, they should try to sort those things out as best they can. It will help prevent friendly fire incidents if nothing else.
- And some percentage of these incidents are bound to be actually hostile enemies spying or probing our defenses, and those are things to be investigated and understood as best we can as well.
But, you know, don't put nutters in charge of the investigations. And make the process and results as open and transparent as possible, because that is one the best defenses against nutters dominating the process. And don't start out by assuming there must be thousands of alien craft flying criss-crosses over the globe every day of the week.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the existence of (many!) extraterrestrial craft across the earth is a very, very, very extraordinary claim.
posted by flug at 12:42 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
- ca. 90% of them have a completely mundane but perhaps un-obvious explanation - strange visual phenomenon, fairly unusual interaction between instruments and what they are observing that throws off users but has an everyday explanation, weather balloons and other such things seen from an unusual vantage point, the planet Venus seen from an odd angle, etc.
- ca. 1%-10% are actual (earthly) enemies that are trying to spy on or monitor us somehow.
- ca. 1%-10% are secret programs of the U.S. government - advanced aircraft, drones, etc etc etc
- Something like 0.01%-1% of the incidents actually could not be explained to my satisfaction even if a rather huge amount of resources were thrown at them.
The last unexplained/unexplainable percentage does not demonstrate that these are aliens or supernatural or whatever, but are simply a fact of life that many - in fact most! - phenomena that we observe out there in the actual universe cannot be explained fully.
The existence of these unexplained things does not prove the existence of aliens etc - that would require actual positive evidence and proof - but it is the space where the supernatural, different dimensions of reality, aliens, or whatever could live if you like to believe in them. You can't prove that these are supernatural/aliens/etc but you also can't completely disprove it. There is some space there for you to believe as you like.
Flip side, to me absolutely none of the videos and other evidence presented so far fits into that final 0.01%-1% category of "unexplained". Just for example, the three videos released by the military a couple of years back all have pretty simple and mundane explanations. David Grusch has tantalizing second-hand reports, but no actual direct evidence of anything. At best, the result of his testimony is "Ok, let's check some things out here." If those investigations result in actual evidence, then there will be evidence. Until then, there is no evidence.
On the other hand, yes absolutely the military etc should investigate these things, and not keep the results secret, etc.
- If there are things they are seeing with their instruments and not fully understanding, they should try to sort those things out as best they can. It will help prevent friendly fire incidents if nothing else.
- And some percentage of these incidents are bound to be actually hostile enemies spying or probing our defenses, and those are things to be investigated and understood as best we can as well.
But, you know, don't put nutters in charge of the investigations. And make the process and results as open and transparent as possible, because that is one the best defenses against nutters dominating the process. And don't start out by assuming there must be thousands of alien craft flying criss-crosses over the globe every day of the week.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and the existence of (many!) extraterrestrial craft across the earth is a very, very, very extraordinary claim.
posted by flug at 12:42 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
I mean, we still don't technically know how lightning works. There are things that are physically impossible for us to know, like an unaided eyeball seeing itself, or consciousness experiencing nonexistence. The things we do know indicate that aliens aren't here, so it's going to take strong evidence to even get them on the list of possible explanations.
posted by Scattercat at 1:15 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Scattercat at 1:15 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
The strength and fervor of people's opinions is really far more than I ever would have thought.
I have some thoughts on the way previously religious experiences attributed to demonic or angelic entities have been repackaged as aliens and transdimensional walk-ins, and what that implies about where all the unused belief energy sloshing around has gone. I suspect that those kind of transcendent experiences are just a part of how our brains work (or misfire), and the hunger for meaning leaves some feeling starved in a modern world.
On the skeptics' side, I love cryptids and aliens and all that shit, but I have become increasingly aware of the potential for harm in letting any departure from reality stand unchallenged, as well as the now-infamous "New Age to QAnon pipeline" and how conspiratorial thinking leads to negative outcomes on both a personal and societal level. I can't watch credulous "true story" shows any longer. They're fun stories, but they're stories.
They aren't true.
Being true is important, for beliefs.
I've seen homeopathic rescue inhalers being sold at a pharmacy. There's a point where "it's fine, believe whatever you want" results in harm. I feel very strongly about pushing that line backwards when and how I can.
posted by Scattercat at 1:38 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
I have some thoughts on the way previously religious experiences attributed to demonic or angelic entities have been repackaged as aliens and transdimensional walk-ins, and what that implies about where all the unused belief energy sloshing around has gone. I suspect that those kind of transcendent experiences are just a part of how our brains work (or misfire), and the hunger for meaning leaves some feeling starved in a modern world.
On the skeptics' side, I love cryptids and aliens and all that shit, but I have become increasingly aware of the potential for harm in letting any departure from reality stand unchallenged, as well as the now-infamous "New Age to QAnon pipeline" and how conspiratorial thinking leads to negative outcomes on both a personal and societal level. I can't watch credulous "true story" shows any longer. They're fun stories, but they're stories.
They aren't true.
Being true is important, for beliefs.
I've seen homeopathic rescue inhalers being sold at a pharmacy. There's a point where "it's fine, believe whatever you want" results in harm. I feel very strongly about pushing that line backwards when and how I can.
posted by Scattercat at 1:38 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
That is, you can believe whatever you want, but I think it's better if the things you believe in are real.
posted by Scattercat at 1:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Scattercat at 1:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
If applied as policy, that gets circular pretty quickly.
I prefer to avoid beliefs that are
(a) - non-falsifiable: I can think of no feasible test that could tell me whether or not this belief is mistaken;
(b) - esoteric: I am unaware of any alternative belief that is both more mundane and would account for the relevant observations at least as well.
Having made the discarding of useless beliefs a personal project for a considerable part of a fairly introspective life, I don't think I have any left of type (a) and I'm more than willing to abandon such type (b) beliefs as remain as soon as something better becomes apparent; none of them, as far as I know, are fundamental to my worldview, so that abandonment is unlikely to be difficult.
posted by flabdablet at 2:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I prefer to avoid beliefs that are
(a) - non-falsifiable: I can think of no feasible test that could tell me whether or not this belief is mistaken;
(b) - esoteric: I am unaware of any alternative belief that is both more mundane and would account for the relevant observations at least as well.
Having made the discarding of useless beliefs a personal project for a considerable part of a fairly introspective life, I don't think I have any left of type (a) and I'm more than willing to abandon such type (b) beliefs as remain as soon as something better becomes apparent; none of them, as far as I know, are fundamental to my worldview, so that abandonment is unlikely to be difficult.
posted by flabdablet at 2:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Yes that's what "real" means but it's not as pithy is it. :-p
posted by Scattercat at 2:37 AM on July 19, 2023
posted by Scattercat at 2:37 AM on July 19, 2023
Can anyone explain this - why the focus on aliens/alien technologies to the exclusion of all other possible alternative explanations?
Jabba the Trump?
posted by y2karl at 2:39 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Jabba the Trump?
posted by y2karl at 2:39 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
> I have one question for the people who are pretty or completely convinced that we are looking at aliens and alien technology here
This is a strawman that is repeatedly, tediously bought up by the "skeptic" side... Go ctrl-f "alien" and check it out yourself. There's maybe one single post pro-alien / ET hypothesis. Compared to an absolutely deluge of "Well it can't be aliens because..." posts. What most people on the "UAPs are real" side are saying is in line with the senate amendment language - "Non-Human Intelligences". It's still a mystery where these are from, where they evolved, or how long they've been on earth. I'm as skeptical as you are that "little green men" flew here in "flying saucers" or whatever reductive and cliched nonsense you think we believe.
Please "skeptics" - update yourself as to the current thinking and not whatever outdated strawman you have in your head.
I recommend watching Skinwalker Ranch to see what the current discourse and theory looks like from the "pro UAP" side of the fence. It's about knowing that we don't know everything. It's about having some humility when faced with phenomena that don't currently fit our models of the world, and asking how we might need to amend those models, while actually being pretty cautious in proposing grand theories not supported by evidence.
posted by iivix at 3:19 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is a strawman that is repeatedly, tediously bought up by the "skeptic" side... Go ctrl-f "alien" and check it out yourself. There's maybe one single post pro-alien / ET hypothesis. Compared to an absolutely deluge of "Well it can't be aliens because..." posts. What most people on the "UAPs are real" side are saying is in line with the senate amendment language - "Non-Human Intelligences". It's still a mystery where these are from, where they evolved, or how long they've been on earth. I'm as skeptical as you are that "little green men" flew here in "flying saucers" or whatever reductive and cliched nonsense you think we believe.
Please "skeptics" - update yourself as to the current thinking and not whatever outdated strawman you have in your head.
I recommend watching Skinwalker Ranch to see what the current discourse and theory looks like from the "pro UAP" side of the fence. It's about knowing that we don't know everything. It's about having some humility when faced with phenomena that don't currently fit our models of the world, and asking how we might need to amend those models, while actually being pretty cautious in proposing grand theories not supported by evidence.
posted by iivix at 3:19 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
But claiming it's "Non-Human Intelligences" *is* a grand theory not supported by evidence. It's the opposite of someone knowing they don't know everything, or having humility when faced with unexplained phenomenon.
posted by kyrademon at 3:51 AM on July 19, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by kyrademon at 3:51 AM on July 19, 2023 [13 favorites]
It's about having some humility when faced with phenomena that don't currently fit our models of the world
Seems to me it's about a bunch of white guys who disrespect Native beliefs and are (among many other huge red flags) either ignorant of decades-old image processing algorithms, or are lying to gullible rubes by using them as evidence.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 3:59 AM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
Seems to me it's about a bunch of white guys who disrespect Native beliefs and are (among many other huge red flags) either ignorant of decades-old image processing algorithms, or are lying to gullible rubes by using them as evidence.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 3:59 AM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
That's not humility, that's hucksterism.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:00 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:00 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
No it's absolutely justified by the evidence, that's the point, things are flying around in ways that demonstrate intelligent behaviour, they don't have a conventional human explanation, hence non-human intelligences - that's the minimal, placeholder description that we need to describe these things. This, like it or not, is becoming the orthodox position based on categorisation of the observed phenomena... I'm not coming up with this myself, it's not fringe language, it's literally in the senate amendment, and it's there because the people that wrote the amendment believe that's the most accurate and useful language to use.
posted by iivix at 4:00 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by iivix at 4:00 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
I don't want to believe.
posted by some loser at 4:06 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by some loser at 4:06 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
> things are flying around in ways that demonstrate intelligent behaviour
Maybe.
> they don't have a conventional human explanation
Yet.
> hence non-human intelligences
Hence unexplained, for now.
posted by Pouteria at 4:09 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Maybe.
> they don't have a conventional human explanation
Yet.
> hence non-human intelligences
Hence unexplained, for now.
posted by Pouteria at 4:09 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Just a reminder that the House just passed a version of this bill contains a lot of legalese nonsense about how abortion is evil, transgender Americans are icky creeps, that DEI is destroying the country, and a lot of other stuff that is discredited bullshit. You can go on about what is or is not "fringe," but just because something is in a major bill like this doesn't mean that it's scientifically accurate or outside the fever dreams of whackjobs and/or con artists with postgraduate degrees.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:21 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:21 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
Likewise, the skeptic's side has Thunderf00t as promoted above, notorious for his many anti-feminist videos - both sides can be associated with trash... And it's not like UAPs stop being real just because bad people believe in them.
posted by iivix at 4:36 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by iivix at 4:36 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Metafilter: Do you even watch Skinwalker Ranch?
posted by signal at 4:46 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by signal at 4:46 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Likewise, the skeptic's side has Thunderf00t as promoted above
One user posted that, and even they were hesitant to do so.
notorious for his many anti-feminist videos
Sure, that makes him a sexist asshole, but not sure what that has to do with UAPs.
And it's not like UAPs stop being real just because bad people believe in them.
I included my example as a counterpoint to "BUT IT'S IN A SENATE AMENDMENT! WITH REAL LEGALESE AND EVERYTHING!" Also, UAPs are only "real" in that they are currently unidentifiable phenomena, with the only "proof" of intelligent extraterrestrial life in this thread being supported in large part by a bunch of charlatans misappropriating Native beliefs and displaying ignorance about basic image algorithms to get rubes to give them lots of money.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:55 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
One user posted that, and even they were hesitant to do so.
notorious for his many anti-feminist videos
Sure, that makes him a sexist asshole, but not sure what that has to do with UAPs.
And it's not like UAPs stop being real just because bad people believe in them.
I included my example as a counterpoint to "BUT IT'S IN A SENATE AMENDMENT! WITH REAL LEGALESE AND EVERYTHING!" Also, UAPs are only "real" in that they are currently unidentifiable phenomena, with the only "proof" of intelligent extraterrestrial life in this thread being supported in large part by a bunch of charlatans misappropriating Native beliefs and displaying ignorance about basic image algorithms to get rubes to give them lots of money.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:55 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Yeah, you can't hold up Thunderfoot as a source if he's proudly anti feminist. That shows a real lack of critical thinking and I'm not joking about that.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:03 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:03 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
I have one question for the people who are pretty or completely convinced that we are looking at aliens and alien technology here: Why, of the entire universe of possible explanations for these various phenomena, do you focus specifically on the "alien beings and technology from another planet" angle?
i can't speak for anyone else, but i'm not pretty or completely convinced of this. i don't even especially 'want to believe'. it would be great to find out that we're about to be inducted into the galactic federation and the fully automated luxury space communism we ordered is in the post, but there are many different permutations of 'aliens / non-human intelligences are real!', and many of them would be very bad for us if true.
that said, while i don't want to believe, i do want to understand. as rhaomi and others have pointed out, and as is apparent from the links, it is very clear that something weird is going on. there are a number of potential explanations for that, although not quite as many as has been suggested in other posts. plenty of those explanations do not involve aliens / nhi. but even the more mundane of those explanations would be interesting at a minimum, and in many cases very concerning.
that's one reason why i am inclined to focus on the alien angle. some people use the existence of that angle to argue that there should be no investigation into whatever's happening - i.e. aliens obviously aren't here, therefore investigations into aliens being here are a waste of time, this is an investigation into whether aliens are here, therefore it is a waste of time.
that is a silly and shallow argument. even if we look solely at the facts and allegations that are public, it's apparent that there is something weird going on, and that is worth investigating, even if you don't think it involves aliens. it's worth finding out that china has spent years sending drones into us navy training areas, or that a persistent network of people in influential national security positions are detached from reality, or that the us government is running psyops on its own military personnel and politicians to conceal experimental aircraft programs.
the other reason why i'm inclined to focus on the alien angle is that it is pretty much the only explanation for whatever's going on that is repeatedly and confidently asserted to be bullshit, accompanied by snide remarks and q anon comparisons for any poor sap that thinks otherwise.
in reality, the available evidence is consistent with an aliens / nhi explanation (while also being consistent with many other mundane explanations). the priors that people are relying on to assert that the probability of this explanation is zero, or near-zero, are informed by what they know, which - relatively speaking - is very little. it doesn't include whatever classified information has (or has not) been provided to congress, or whatever other information we don't have about life, the universe and everything, which is probably quite a lot. additionally, the arguments that a number of people are making from those incredibly limited priors are poorly constructed and demonstrate the lack of critical thinking and willingness to consider alternatives that they bemoan in those who treat aliens as a non-zero possibility.
basically, people are confidently asserting that black swans don't exist, and in some cases that they can't exist, using crap arguments that fall short of their own demands for rigor, spiced with disparagement for anyone who thinks otherwise.
that irritates me, so i keep posting about it.
posted by inire at 5:11 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
i can't speak for anyone else, but i'm not pretty or completely convinced of this. i don't even especially 'want to believe'. it would be great to find out that we're about to be inducted into the galactic federation and the fully automated luxury space communism we ordered is in the post, but there are many different permutations of 'aliens / non-human intelligences are real!', and many of them would be very bad for us if true.
that said, while i don't want to believe, i do want to understand. as rhaomi and others have pointed out, and as is apparent from the links, it is very clear that something weird is going on. there are a number of potential explanations for that, although not quite as many as has been suggested in other posts. plenty of those explanations do not involve aliens / nhi. but even the more mundane of those explanations would be interesting at a minimum, and in many cases very concerning.
that's one reason why i am inclined to focus on the alien angle. some people use the existence of that angle to argue that there should be no investigation into whatever's happening - i.e. aliens obviously aren't here, therefore investigations into aliens being here are a waste of time, this is an investigation into whether aliens are here, therefore it is a waste of time.
that is a silly and shallow argument. even if we look solely at the facts and allegations that are public, it's apparent that there is something weird going on, and that is worth investigating, even if you don't think it involves aliens. it's worth finding out that china has spent years sending drones into us navy training areas, or that a persistent network of people in influential national security positions are detached from reality, or that the us government is running psyops on its own military personnel and politicians to conceal experimental aircraft programs.
the other reason why i'm inclined to focus on the alien angle is that it is pretty much the only explanation for whatever's going on that is repeatedly and confidently asserted to be bullshit, accompanied by snide remarks and q anon comparisons for any poor sap that thinks otherwise.
in reality, the available evidence is consistent with an aliens / nhi explanation (while also being consistent with many other mundane explanations). the priors that people are relying on to assert that the probability of this explanation is zero, or near-zero, are informed by what they know, which - relatively speaking - is very little. it doesn't include whatever classified information has (or has not) been provided to congress, or whatever other information we don't have about life, the universe and everything, which is probably quite a lot. additionally, the arguments that a number of people are making from those incredibly limited priors are poorly constructed and demonstrate the lack of critical thinking and willingness to consider alternatives that they bemoan in those who treat aliens as a non-zero possibility.
basically, people are confidently asserting that black swans don't exist, and in some cases that they can't exist, using crap arguments that fall short of their own demands for rigor, spiced with disparagement for anyone who thinks otherwise.
that irritates me, so i keep posting about it.
posted by inire at 5:11 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
Yeah, you can't hold up Thunderfoot as a source if he's proudly anti feminist. That shows a real lack of critical thinking and I'm not joking about that.
Then take it up with the one--I repeat, one--poster who linked him. Don't claim that that is representing the entirety of the skeptic side of things.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:15 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Then take it up with the one--I repeat, one--poster who linked him. Don't claim that that is representing the entirety of the skeptic side of things.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:15 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
I didn't, so I'm good!
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:24 AM on July 19, 2023
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:24 AM on July 19, 2023
iivix I recommend watching Skinwalker Ranch to see what the current discourse and theory looks like from the "pro UAP" side of the fence.
Really?
I'm not trying to be mean, but that's the show that proudly put up video of a fly buzzing across their camera's field of view and them deciding it absolutely HAD to be an UAP traveling at many tens of thousands of MPH.
If you zoom in even a little it's obviously a fly, you can see the legs, body shape, and wings. Heck, you don't even need to zoom, if you just look closely at the original video and squint a tiny bit you can see that it's a fly.
Are you sure that's the group of hucksters, snake oil salesmen, and con artists you want to represent the current UFO people?
Also, WRT the use of "non-human intelligence", I'd argue that the first categorical mistake people using that term are making is in ascribing intelligence to phenomena that don't actually require intelligence to explain even if you assume they aren't camera artifacts.
Plus, of course, if they aren't extra-solar intelligent beings then you're getting into stuff that's actually even more absurd. Like what, terrestrial beings who evolved intelligence several million years before humans evolved and then hid from us successfully for the past 10,000 years? And left not one single artifact behind? Aliens sound more plausible, and aliens aren't even slightly plausible.
and as is apparent from the links, it is very clear that something weird is going on
I think that's not even slightly apparent, as evidenced by the infamous fly episode of Skinwalker Ranch. The most charitable conclusion is that they're so eager to find something weird going on that they simply abandoned all critical thinking or even the simple concept of examining evidence closely before jumping to a laughably wrong conclusion. I think the more likely explanation is that the people involved in the industry of creating UAP "evidence" are fraudsters and con artists exploiting the natural desire of people to want to find something nifty, cool, and outside our experience.
Glegrinof the Pig-Man Come on cousin, find someone better than frickin Thunderf00t the proud anti-feminist scumbag who gleefully participated in the utterly vile harassment campaign against Anita Sarkeesian to represent our side. Don't make us look bad by associating us with that guy.
posted by sotonohito at 5:29 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Really?
I'm not trying to be mean, but that's the show that proudly put up video of a fly buzzing across their camera's field of view and them deciding it absolutely HAD to be an UAP traveling at many tens of thousands of MPH.
If you zoom in even a little it's obviously a fly, you can see the legs, body shape, and wings. Heck, you don't even need to zoom, if you just look closely at the original video and squint a tiny bit you can see that it's a fly.
Are you sure that's the group of hucksters, snake oil salesmen, and con artists you want to represent the current UFO people?
Also, WRT the use of "non-human intelligence", I'd argue that the first categorical mistake people using that term are making is in ascribing intelligence to phenomena that don't actually require intelligence to explain even if you assume they aren't camera artifacts.
Plus, of course, if they aren't extra-solar intelligent beings then you're getting into stuff that's actually even more absurd. Like what, terrestrial beings who evolved intelligence several million years before humans evolved and then hid from us successfully for the past 10,000 years? And left not one single artifact behind? Aliens sound more plausible, and aliens aren't even slightly plausible.
and as is apparent from the links, it is very clear that something weird is going on
I think that's not even slightly apparent, as evidenced by the infamous fly episode of Skinwalker Ranch. The most charitable conclusion is that they're so eager to find something weird going on that they simply abandoned all critical thinking or even the simple concept of examining evidence closely before jumping to a laughably wrong conclusion. I think the more likely explanation is that the people involved in the industry of creating UAP "evidence" are fraudsters and con artists exploiting the natural desire of people to want to find something nifty, cool, and outside our experience.
Glegrinof the Pig-Man Come on cousin, find someone better than frickin Thunderf00t the proud anti-feminist scumbag who gleefully participated in the utterly vile harassment campaign against Anita Sarkeesian to represent our side. Don't make us look bad by associating us with that guy.
posted by sotonohito at 5:29 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Come on cousin, find someone better than frickin Thunderf00t the proud anti-feminist scumbag who gleefully participated in the utterly vile harassment campaign against Anita Sarkeesian to represent our side. Don't make us look bad by associating us with that guy.
WTF? I haven't "associated" us with him at all, if anything it's the opposite. At least twice now I've specifically said only one person here seems to be using him as a source. I didn't link to him and didn't reference him as part of my arguments. I haven't even mentioned him outside of refuting others' use of him as representative of the skeptic side in this thread.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:34 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
WTF? I haven't "associated" us with him at all, if anything it's the opposite. At least twice now I've specifically said only one person here seems to be using him as a source. I didn't link to him and didn't reference him as part of my arguments. I haven't even mentioned him outside of refuting others' use of him as representative of the skeptic side in this thread.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:34 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
My apologies, I apparently got you confused with someone else. Speaking of carefully looking over evidence before leaping to the wrong conclusion....
posted by sotonohito at 5:35 AM on July 19, 2023
posted by sotonohito at 5:35 AM on July 19, 2023
FWIW there are plenty of bad actors on the skeptic side of things (Richard Dawkins, anyone?), even James Randi was at least somewhat anti-feminist himself. But that doesn't automatically mean that we should believe that Uri Geller is capable of bending metal with his mind or that there was a shooter on the grassy knoll that killed JFK with a magic bullet.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:45 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 5:45 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Of course! Even assholes and biggie can be right about things outside their bigotry. But from a PR standpoint if nothing else is best to avoid them if possible. As you were advocating.
posted by sotonohito at 6:17 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by sotonohito at 6:17 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
and as is apparent from the links, it is very clear that something weird is going on
I think that's not even slightly apparent, as evidenced by the infamous fly episode of Skinwalker Ranch. The most charitable conclusion is that they're so eager to find something weird going on that they simply abandoned all critical thinking or even the simple concept of examining evidence closely before jumping to a laughably wrong conclusion.
uh huh.
so just to be clear, 'they' here includes: schumer, gillibrand, rubio, the current and former icigs, presumably biden (given the language and context of the draft act), obama, grusch, kirkpatrick, all the current and former military personnel who reported uap encounters, the director of national intelligence, the nasa administrator, and multiple other current and former senior government officials.
these are all people who have stated that there is something weird going on (whether based on more direct experience of that something than us or on access to much more information than we have available), that they don't know what it is, and that it is worth pursuing.
the idea that they are mistaken about that and are making public statements, setting up congressional committees, pursuing legislation and generally investing time and political capital because of their "natural desire to find something nifty", and that they should follow your lead in preemptively dismissing this all as the work of hucksters, is... not impossible, i guess? not many things are impossible.
but it is a conclusion that you have jumped to with little evidence in support and quite a lot of evidence to the contrary, which seems to be precisely what you're criticising them for.
posted by inire at 6:18 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
I think that's not even slightly apparent, as evidenced by the infamous fly episode of Skinwalker Ranch. The most charitable conclusion is that they're so eager to find something weird going on that they simply abandoned all critical thinking or even the simple concept of examining evidence closely before jumping to a laughably wrong conclusion.
uh huh.
so just to be clear, 'they' here includes: schumer, gillibrand, rubio, the current and former icigs, presumably biden (given the language and context of the draft act), obama, grusch, kirkpatrick, all the current and former military personnel who reported uap encounters, the director of national intelligence, the nasa administrator, and multiple other current and former senior government officials.
these are all people who have stated that there is something weird going on (whether based on more direct experience of that something than us or on access to much more information than we have available), that they don't know what it is, and that it is worth pursuing.
the idea that they are mistaken about that and are making public statements, setting up congressional committees, pursuing legislation and generally investing time and political capital because of their "natural desire to find something nifty", and that they should follow your lead in preemptively dismissing this all as the work of hucksters, is... not impossible, i guess? not many things are impossible.
but it is a conclusion that you have jumped to with little evidence in support and quite a lot of evidence to the contrary, which seems to be precisely what you're criticising them for.
posted by inire at 6:18 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
I have become increasingly aware of the potential for harm in letting any departure from reality stand unchallenged
I understand the desire to keep people from being dragged into the Youtube radicalization algorithm but not all thought outside of societal and scientific consensus is a direct pipeline to radicalism and needs shouting down. This same argument is used by teenaged atheists to antagonise family members at Thanksgiving; they might be technically right but I'm not sure that telling granny angels aren't real reduces much harm.
FWIW there are plenty of bad actors on the skeptic side of things
Similarly there are also people on the believer side who aren't cynical grifters or gullible idiots.
posted by slimepuppy at 6:23 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
I understand the desire to keep people from being dragged into the Youtube radicalization algorithm but not all thought outside of societal and scientific consensus is a direct pipeline to radicalism and needs shouting down. This same argument is used by teenaged atheists to antagonise family members at Thanksgiving; they might be technically right but I'm not sure that telling granny angels aren't real reduces much harm.
FWIW there are plenty of bad actors on the skeptic side of things
Similarly there are also people on the believer side who aren't cynical grifters or gullible idiots.
posted by slimepuppy at 6:23 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
presumably biden (given the language and context of the draft act)
The one person in the world who has every legal and moral right and every bit of authority necessary to declassify all of this without a single letter of this amendment hitting paper if he were so inclined?
posted by jason_steakums at 6:31 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
The one person in the world who has every legal and moral right and every bit of authority necessary to declassify all of this without a single letter of this amendment hitting paper if he were so inclined?
posted by jason_steakums at 6:31 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Similarly there are also people on the believer side who aren't cynical grifters or gullible idiots.
That really doesn’t seem to be the case. All I see is a bunch of people pointing at absolutely nothing and yelling “look, there is evidence!” and that places them very firmly in one of those two camps. Maybe a third group of people who shrug and go along with it who get claimed by the grifters and the gullible as further evidence.
posted by Artw at 6:32 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
That really doesn’t seem to be the case. All I see is a bunch of people pointing at absolutely nothing and yelling “look, there is evidence!” and that places them very firmly in one of those two camps. Maybe a third group of people who shrug and go along with it who get claimed by the grifters and the gullible as further evidence.
posted by Artw at 6:32 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
presumably biden
Listen up! It's a star attack, Jack!
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:35 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Listen up! It's a star attack, Jack!
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:35 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't understand why his debunk videos are credible. Doesn't the US Navy have sonar, radar, infrared, etc... data from the UAP incidents that an ordinary layperson (such as Mick West) would not have access to?
You should definitely present that evidence and show how it explains visual phenomenon that exactly match what West showed as explainable by common errors and artifacts with demonstrations
posted by jason_steakums at 6:36 AM on July 19, 2023
You should definitely present that evidence and show how it explains visual phenomenon that exactly match what West showed as explainable by common errors and artifacts with demonstrations
posted by jason_steakums at 6:36 AM on July 19, 2023
The one person in the world who has every legal and moral right and every bit of authority necessary to declassify all of this without a single letter of this amendment hitting paper if he were so inclined?
declassify all of what? the information that's alleged to have been actively withheld from congress and multiple administrations, that this act is (on its face) designed to uncover, assuming it exists? do you see the issue there?
i'm not entirely clear what the argument is here, to the extent there is one (biden could declassify and release everything uap-related, he hasn't, therefore it doesn't exist..?), but i'm having difficulty seeing one that isn't full of holes.
posted by inire at 6:37 AM on July 19, 2023
declassify all of what? the information that's alleged to have been actively withheld from congress and multiple administrations, that this act is (on its face) designed to uncover, assuming it exists? do you see the issue there?
i'm not entirely clear what the argument is here, to the extent there is one (biden could declassify and release everything uap-related, he hasn't, therefore it doesn't exist..?), but i'm having difficulty seeing one that isn't full of holes.
posted by inire at 6:37 AM on July 19, 2023
Why does the US have the monopoly on this information? There's not a single piece of evidence being held by any country that doesn't take orders from Washington? Not one? Ever?
posted by signal at 6:39 AM on July 19, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by signal at 6:39 AM on July 19, 2023 [8 favorites]
Why does the US have the monopoly on this information? There's not a single piece of evidence being held by any country that doesn't take orders from Washington? Not one? Ever?
has the us been said to have a monopoly on it? the current events are us-focused, and one can imagine that the us would tend to have a leading role in anything uap-related (overt or covert), as it does in many things, but i don't think it's been suggested that the us is the sole holder of information about whatever this is.
it could be, of course, if the explanations for this are us-specific (e.g. us psyop, us government officials detached from reality, there's been one actual alien craft recovered and it was the one that crashed at roswell so the us has got it), but i don't see that any of the points made here rely on that being true.
as to why a country not aligned with the us on general geopolitical issues might nonetheless choose not to publicise the information it holds about aliens / nhi, i think there are a range of fairly obvious potential explanations. the lack of any such publication therefore doesn't prove much, if anything, about the topic being discussed.
posted by inire at 6:48 AM on July 19, 2023
has the us been said to have a monopoly on it? the current events are us-focused, and one can imagine that the us would tend to have a leading role in anything uap-related (overt or covert), as it does in many things, but i don't think it's been suggested that the us is the sole holder of information about whatever this is.
it could be, of course, if the explanations for this are us-specific (e.g. us psyop, us government officials detached from reality, there's been one actual alien craft recovered and it was the one that crashed at roswell so the us has got it), but i don't see that any of the points made here rely on that being true.
as to why a country not aligned with the us on general geopolitical issues might nonetheless choose not to publicise the information it holds about aliens / nhi, i think there are a range of fairly obvious potential explanations. the lack of any such publication therefore doesn't prove much, if anything, about the topic being discussed.
posted by inire at 6:48 AM on July 19, 2023
declassify all of what? the information that's alleged to have been actively withheld from congress and multiple administrations, that this act is (on its face) designed to uncover, assuming it exists? do you see the issue there?
i'm not entirely clear what the argument is here, to the extent there is one (biden could declassify and release everything uap-related, he hasn't, therefore it doesn't exist..?), but i'm having difficulty seeing one that isn't full of holes.
How is the bill and Congressional authority any different than Biden's authority, then?
posted by jason_steakums at 6:50 AM on July 19, 2023
i'm not entirely clear what the argument is here, to the extent there is one (biden could declassify and release everything uap-related, he hasn't, therefore it doesn't exist..?), but i'm having difficulty seeing one that isn't full of holes.
How is the bill and Congressional authority any different than Biden's authority, then?
posted by jason_steakums at 6:50 AM on July 19, 2023
> All I see is a bunch of people pointing at absolutely nothing and yelling “look, there is evidence!”
Artw, this being the case, I don't understand what you get out of this thread at this point. And that goes for a lot of people here to be honest.
Personally I don't want to debate the existence of this very real phenomena or defend myself from accusations of being an idiot or a grifter or deluded or Qanon adjacent every single time I post something. I'd like instead to actually discuss the content of the post, the news story, and talk about what we think might be going on beyond "nothing to see here idiots!".
Unfortunately for every 1 of us who wants to talk, 20 "skeptics" insist on shouting us down. Like, I get it. We get it, you think it's BS. All you're doing now it's having fun being mean, trying to silence conversation, and run people you don't like off the site. Maybe give it rest now?
posted by iivix at 6:53 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
Artw, this being the case, I don't understand what you get out of this thread at this point. And that goes for a lot of people here to be honest.
Personally I don't want to debate the existence of this very real phenomena or defend myself from accusations of being an idiot or a grifter or deluded or Qanon adjacent every single time I post something. I'd like instead to actually discuss the content of the post, the news story, and talk about what we think might be going on beyond "nothing to see here idiots!".
Unfortunately for every 1 of us who wants to talk, 20 "skeptics" insist on shouting us down. Like, I get it. We get it, you think it's BS. All you're doing now it's having fun being mean, trying to silence conversation, and run people you don't like off the site. Maybe give it rest now?
posted by iivix at 6:53 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
Show us this evidence you repeatedly claim you have then.
posted by Artw at 6:57 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:57 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
This is an opportunity to look bipartisan by passing some totally inconsequential puff legislation so obviously the Democrats are going to eagerly jump on board. And for that purpose, all the nonsense like 'non human intelligences' serves quite well to make sure that nothing important will actually be declassified. Like, if you really wanted to get to the bottom of 'this', you wouldn't say "show us the aliens and only the aliens", you'd say "release detailed and accurate information about all your sensor systems and aircraft capabilities, and also any intelligence you have on foreign aircraft".
posted by Pyry at 6:58 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 6:58 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
You should definitely present that evidence and show how it explains visual phenomenon that exactly match what West showed as explainable by common errors and artifacts with demonstrations
posted by jason_steakums at 9:36 AM on July 19 [+] [!]
I don't have access to that data, but neither does Mick West. What's your point?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 6:58 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by jason_steakums at 9:36 AM on July 19 [+] [!]
I don't have access to that data, but neither does Mick West. What's your point?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 6:58 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Artw, this being the case, I don't understand what you get out of this thread at this point. And that goes for a lot of people here to be honest.
If you want to post a thread about UFOs and are willing to posit in vague language that there's a conspiracy by world governments to conceal them to airily dismiss 'skepticism' (as though that shouldn't be the default reaction) then I think you have to put up with the discussion that goes along with that about disinformation, credulous conspiracism, and the surrounding pop culture. Including Q-Anon, with all of its Icke-i-ness. Or SCP-ish hauntology.
And the sillier stuff, like the recent Area 51 Naruto Run nonsense, for instance.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:00 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
If you want to post a thread about UFOs and are willing to posit in vague language that there's a conspiracy by world governments to conceal them to airily dismiss 'skepticism' (as though that shouldn't be the default reaction) then I think you have to put up with the discussion that goes along with that about disinformation, credulous conspiracism, and the surrounding pop culture. Including Q-Anon, with all of its Icke-i-ness. Or SCP-ish hauntology.
And the sillier stuff, like the recent Area 51 Naruto Run nonsense, for instance.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:00 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
> If you want to post a thread about UFOs and are willing to posit in vague language that there's a conspiracy by world governments to conceal them
Yet another strawman. Who said there is a world conspiracy? Again, please check this thread, there are 20 skeptics putting endless strawman posts up to knock down - aliens, world conspiracies, Qanon links, etc. etc. But I'm not saying that?
Pretty much all I have personally said of substance is UAPs are real, in as much as they are real things flying around not built by humans.... And "Watch Skinwalker Ranch". Skeptical takes on the show are fair play (although you are all terribly mischaracterising it, and you should watch it, it's a fun show and Travis Taylor is hot).
posted by iivix at 7:06 AM on July 19, 2023
Yet another strawman. Who said there is a world conspiracy? Again, please check this thread, there are 20 skeptics putting endless strawman posts up to knock down - aliens, world conspiracies, Qanon links, etc. etc. But I'm not saying that?
Pretty much all I have personally said of substance is UAPs are real, in as much as they are real things flying around not built by humans.... And "Watch Skinwalker Ranch". Skeptical takes on the show are fair play (although you are all terribly mischaracterising it, and you should watch it, it's a fun show and Travis Taylor is hot).
posted by iivix at 7:06 AM on July 19, 2023
How is the bill and Congressional authority any different than Biden's authority, then?
in certain respects, it isn't. if information targeted by the bill exists, but it is held solely by a sufficiently small number of sufficiently motivated people, and / or is held by other people who can be successfully pressured to remain silent, the bill - like a hypothetical declassification decision by biden - would not result in that information being produced.
in other respects, it's very different. biden's authority to declassify things is a general authority that can, hypothetically, be applied to this topic, but to date hasn't been. the bill and associated congressional events are things that are actually happening, and are largely unprecedented in both their existence and the level of specificity about a topic that has until very recently been almost universally treated as complete nonsense.
i don't think anyone here is arguing that the bill is a magic bullet that will once and for all settle the question of whether we've been visited by aliens, but it's obviously a significant change in approach - hence this thread.
like, implying that the bill and associated congressional events are meaningless because biden has always had the power to declassify things is both wrong on its face, and failing to engage with how the process of identifying and extracting such information (if it exists) would actually work.
Show us this evidence you repeatedly claim you have then.
would you like to read the links? plenty of evidence in there that there is something weird going on, which is what i understand iivix to be referring to. also it's just a good thing to do in general on mefi threads.
posted by inire at 7:08 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
in certain respects, it isn't. if information targeted by the bill exists, but it is held solely by a sufficiently small number of sufficiently motivated people, and / or is held by other people who can be successfully pressured to remain silent, the bill - like a hypothetical declassification decision by biden - would not result in that information being produced.
in other respects, it's very different. biden's authority to declassify things is a general authority that can, hypothetically, be applied to this topic, but to date hasn't been. the bill and associated congressional events are things that are actually happening, and are largely unprecedented in both their existence and the level of specificity about a topic that has until very recently been almost universally treated as complete nonsense.
i don't think anyone here is arguing that the bill is a magic bullet that will once and for all settle the question of whether we've been visited by aliens, but it's obviously a significant change in approach - hence this thread.
like, implying that the bill and associated congressional events are meaningless because biden has always had the power to declassify things is both wrong on its face, and failing to engage with how the process of identifying and extracting such information (if it exists) would actually work.
Show us this evidence you repeatedly claim you have then.
would you like to read the links? plenty of evidence in there that there is something weird going on, which is what i understand iivix to be referring to. also it's just a good thing to do in general on mefi threads.
posted by inire at 7:08 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't have access to that data, but neither does Mick West. What's your point?
That with the best available evidence we all have he's shown it to be compellingly explainable and you're jumping to, at the very least, implying that someone has unprecedented technology that breaks physics wide open. Extraordinary claims based on assumption of evidence outside of what we have.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:09 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
That with the best available evidence we all have he's shown it to be compellingly explainable and you're jumping to, at the very least, implying that someone has unprecedented technology that breaks physics wide open. Extraordinary claims based on assumption of evidence outside of what we have.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:09 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
I feel like in that comment, iivix, you made at least two wildly unsupported assumptions? So maybe that's why people are treating you as, at best, extremely credulous.
posted by sagc at 7:10 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by sagc at 7:10 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
And "Watch Skinwalker Ranch"
And they do so much cool science, week after week. Stuff with ground penetrating radar, monitoring electromagnetic spectrum, launching rockets every week, blasting huge lasers in the sky, there was even a flamethrower on the most recent episode. What's not to love.
posted by iivix at 7:10 AM on July 19, 2023
And they do so much cool science, week after week. Stuff with ground penetrating radar, monitoring electromagnetic spectrum, launching rockets every week, blasting huge lasers in the sky, there was even a flamethrower on the most recent episode. What's not to love.
posted by iivix at 7:10 AM on July 19, 2023
The way this thread turned out makes me sad.
Thanks for posting it, Rhaomi; I appreciate the effort you put into breaking down the provisions of a pretty odd and singular bill.
posted by Gadarene at 7:10 AM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
Thanks for posting it, Rhaomi; I appreciate the effort you put into breaking down the provisions of a pretty odd and singular bill.
posted by Gadarene at 7:10 AM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
these are all people who have stated that there is something weird going on... that they don't know what it is, and that it is worth pursuing.
Nobody is saying the weird stuff should not be investigated. Only that it does not follow that aliens are the most likely explanation for the weird stuff, at this stage.
posted by Pouteria at 7:11 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Nobody is saying the weird stuff should not be investigated. Only that it does not follow that aliens are the most likely explanation for the weird stuff, at this stage.
posted by Pouteria at 7:11 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
iivix - The “whistleblower” this amendment is in response to specifically outlines a worldwide conspiracy, as well as a shadow government conspiracy to hide all the x-files shit from itself. The amendment doesn’t even make sense if there is no such conspiracy to hide anything. Then there’s all the mentions of non human intelligence, etc… etc…
posted by Artw at 7:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
I'm not saying that?
Try this comment.
Are you under the impression that everyone who doesn't think aliens are among us are obliged to argue with you, as an individual? Substitute 'y'all' if that helps.
Maybe you're the world's most reasonable alien understander, that's still not the general context for all of this. If you're going to take it that personally, maybe take a break instead of telling everyone else what discourse is permitted about declassified UFO reports that people generate lots of YT views speculating about in various sensational ways (and without which there wouldn't be all this attention).
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Try this comment.
Are you under the impression that everyone who doesn't think aliens are among us are obliged to argue with you, as an individual? Substitute 'y'all' if that helps.
Maybe you're the world's most reasonable alien understander, that's still not the general context for all of this. If you're going to take it that personally, maybe take a break instead of telling everyone else what discourse is permitted about declassified UFO reports that people generate lots of YT views speculating about in various sensational ways (and without which there wouldn't be all this attention).
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:13 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
I give up. Good luck finger-wagging your way into convincing everyone aliens are real based on the absence of evidence.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Personally I don't want to debate the existence of this very real phenomena or defend myself from accusations of being an idiot or a grifter or deluded or Qanon adjacent every single time I post something. I'd like instead to actually discuss the content of the post, the news story, and talk about what we think might be going on beyond "nothing to see here idiots!".
Unfortunately for every 1 of us who wants to talk, 20 "skeptics" insist on shouting us down. Like, I get it. We get it, you think it's BS. All you're doing now it's having fun being mean, trying to silence conversation, and run people you don't like off the site. Maybe give it rest now?
If someone is being mean you should flag it for the mods but you can't just silence everyone else to make a thread about your one preferred aspect of the topic.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
Unfortunately for every 1 of us who wants to talk, 20 "skeptics" insist on shouting us down. Like, I get it. We get it, you think it's BS. All you're doing now it's having fun being mean, trying to silence conversation, and run people you don't like off the site. Maybe give it rest now?
If someone is being mean you should flag it for the mods but you can't just silence everyone else to make a thread about your one preferred aspect of the topic.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
> "UAPs are real, in as much as they are real things flying around not built by humans"
The problem is that you do not understand that making the leap from "unidentified phenomena have been observed by people and instruments" to "they are real things flying around not built by humans" is already wild speculation.
posted by kyrademon at 7:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [19 favorites]
The problem is that you do not understand that making the leap from "unidentified phenomena have been observed by people and instruments" to "they are real things flying around not built by humans" is already wild speculation.
posted by kyrademon at 7:16 AM on July 19, 2023 [19 favorites]
Nobody is saying the weird stuff should not be investigated.
did you read any of the preceding comments? from the first half of the thread:
If this was the Roman Senate, they'd declare it bullshittius maximus.
Congratulations to skinwalker ranch bullshit guy I guess, and everyone who likes wasting time on the nonsense of grifters.
(literally the first two comments!)
a person i know who works closely with Congress said that this looks like an intentional distraction By congress from the outside but in truth, all of the fucking congresspeople are legitimately, absurdly, unhingedly obsessed with this UFO shit to the total disregard of everything else. The person I know is ready to tear their every last hair out in complete frustration and disgust. (ok so this one is more of an implication, sue me)
20 million for this nonsense?
you get the point.
posted by inire at 7:18 AM on July 19, 2023
did you read any of the preceding comments? from the first half of the thread:
If this was the Roman Senate, they'd declare it bullshittius maximus.
Congratulations to skinwalker ranch bullshit guy I guess, and everyone who likes wasting time on the nonsense of grifters.
(literally the first two comments!)
a person i know who works closely with Congress said that this looks like an intentional distraction By congress from the outside but in truth, all of the fucking congresspeople are legitimately, absurdly, unhingedly obsessed with this UFO shit to the total disregard of everything else. The person I know is ready to tear their every last hair out in complete frustration and disgust. (ok so this one is more of an implication, sue me)
20 million for this nonsense?
you get the point.
posted by inire at 7:18 AM on July 19, 2023
> I give up.
I'm iivix, that post you linked to was by inire.
Are you even getting annoyed at the right person?
If you are that annoyed with me, fair enough. But at least you could read the thread properly. There have been a few different pro-UAP folks making different points!
posted by iivix at 7:18 AM on July 19, 2023
I'm iivix, that post you linked to was by inire.
Are you even getting annoyed at the right person?
If you are that annoyed with me, fair enough. But at least you could read the thread properly. There have been a few different pro-UAP folks making different points!
posted by iivix at 7:18 AM on July 19, 2023
you could read the thread properly
Did you read this part?
Are you under the impression that everyone who doesn't think aliens are among us are obliged to argue with you, as an individual?
I don't know if you just got here, but if you want to continue this argument create a MeTa and see if it goes up. I suspect it will be lonely there if it does.
Otherwise, flag the posts that bother you and stop trying to dictate the discussion. That's not how it works here.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:20 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Did you read this part?
Are you under the impression that everyone who doesn't think aliens are among us are obliged to argue with you, as an individual?
I don't know if you just got here, but if you want to continue this argument create a MeTa and see if it goes up. I suspect it will be lonely there if it does.
Otherwise, flag the posts that bother you and stop trying to dictate the discussion. That's not how it works here.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:20 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
inire, I agree with most of your points by the way, just pointing out that we are two different people.
posted by iivix at 7:20 AM on July 19, 2023
posted by iivix at 7:20 AM on July 19, 2023
iivix, that's the whole point of their post. your fellow travelers are indeed proposing various levels of global conspiracy, as are basically all popular proponents of this sort of thing? Like they said - you can think you're reasonable all you want, but you're surrounded by unreasonable people.
posted by sagc at 7:21 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by sagc at 7:21 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Mod note: Folks, y'all seem to be arguing back and forth over points neither side will agree with. Continuing to do that will just leave you angry and frustrated with the site and fellow community members.
Please consider walking away from the thread and stop trying convince someone on the internet that they're wrong.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:21 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
Please consider walking away from the thread and stop trying convince someone on the internet that they're wrong.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:21 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
Try this comment.
that was mine, not iivix's. and it doesn't posit that there is a worldwide conspiracy, it states (accurately) that the us has not been said to be the only country that could possibly be involved in any of this.
hope that helps!
(also, i am absolutely going to describe myself henceforth as the world's most reasonable alien understander.)
iivix, that's the whole point of their post.
narrator: it isn't.
posted by inire at 7:22 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
that was mine, not iivix's. and it doesn't posit that there is a worldwide conspiracy, it states (accurately) that the us has not been said to be the only country that could possibly be involved in any of this.
hope that helps!
(also, i am absolutely going to describe myself henceforth as the world's most reasonable alien understander.)
iivix, that's the whole point of their post.
narrator: it isn't.
posted by inire at 7:22 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Skinwalker Ranch videos largely seem to be image artifacts (at least one of which is "enhanced" by further image manipulation) and terrestrial creatures, not any sort of actual craft.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 7:23 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 7:23 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
"Definitely-not-scripted reality television show is a good idea" weakens anyone's argument of anything, and I say that as someone who's invested (to put it mildly, so says my wife) in the UAP situation. I'm thankful for this FPP. I've read the amendment and it's astounding to me that the US government is publicly discussing the idea of "non-human intelligence" and things that don't have "prosaic origins." I'm with the people arguing why make it up? Why, as a congressperson, entertain this topic at all?
posted by emelenjr at 7:28 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by emelenjr at 7:28 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Substitute 'y'all' if that helps.
This seems unnecessarily unkind.
posted by achrise at 7:31 AM on July 19, 2023
This seems unnecessarily unkind.
posted by achrise at 7:31 AM on July 19, 2023
So there is way more to Skinwalker Ranch than image artifacts! There are mysterious objects buried under ground. Consistent, replicable effects on various GPS device. Strange, unexplainable device failures on multiple things at once. Actual black helicopters (and they've been bugged!). An invisible force field that knocks helicopters off their course, alters the trajectory of rockets, makes things explode, and in the most recent episode even appeared as a literal black hole on lidar. Lots of UAPs (mostly glowing orbs), but they're almost just the icing on the cake at this point. It's great fun. They even brought in a Rabbi to conduct some kind of portal opening ceremony and a ghost appeared on the heat camera in the local haunted house. That's high strangeness for you...
Is everything on that show absolutely evidence of unexplained phenomena? No, obviously they have episodes to fill and they're going to make some stuff up. Have they really found a "portal above the triangle"? Sure looks like it.
posted by iivix at 7:34 AM on July 19, 2023
Is everything on that show absolutely evidence of unexplained phenomena? No, obviously they have episodes to fill and they're going to make some stuff up. Have they really found a "portal above the triangle"? Sure looks like it.
posted by iivix at 7:34 AM on July 19, 2023
I just don't see how you can present "television show demonstrates unexplained phenomena" as evidence. They could also just fake all of that for entertainment, which is vastly more likely. Maybe there's something there but there's no hard evidence until actual peer reviewed studies from people who don't have a financial interest in the show's success are done.
posted by jason_steakums at 7:38 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 7:38 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
Does the fact that a UAP themed reality show exists undermine the reality of the phenomena? I mean we have professional wrestling but we look at olympic wrestling and we know wrestling is real. Likewise my Gordon Ramsey analogy above. We have the capacity to understand that fact and fiction exist on a spectrum, and a heightened, somewhat fictionalised version of a thing, doesn't mean the real thing isn't real.
posted by iivix at 7:39 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by iivix at 7:39 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ahem. If I’ve had my time in this thread with “there is no evidence here, just pointing to nothing and claiming it might be evidence” then may I suggest iivix et al have also had their time with the dumb tv show and the shifting goalposts and the solidly not coming back with evidence etc?
Seems like a bit of a thumb on the scale otherwise.
posted by Artw at 7:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Seems like a bit of a thumb on the scale otherwise.
posted by Artw at 7:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't think people have created this senate amendment just to promote a fun History Channel Original.
posted by iivix at 7:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by iivix at 7:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
i for one am happy to put skinwalker ranch on the 'probably never going to watch it' list (sorry iivix) and get back to the links in the post.
This seems unnecessarily unkind.
i read this as referring to 'you' in the previous sentence, "Are you under the impression that everyone who doesn't think aliens are among us are obliged to argue with you, as an individual?" - as in, asking whether there is an obligation to argue with iivix (you singular) or iivix and others in the thread who take a similar view (y'all plural). not as a swipe at southern usians.
posted by inire at 7:41 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
This seems unnecessarily unkind.
i read this as referring to 'you' in the previous sentence, "Are you under the impression that everyone who doesn't think aliens are among us are obliged to argue with you, as an individual?" - as in, asking whether there is an obligation to argue with iivix (you singular) or iivix and others in the thread who take a similar view (y'all plural). not as a swipe at southern usians.
posted by inire at 7:41 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
Mick West explains the alleged LiDAR black hole and even recreates the effect with a model of the scene.
posted by interogative mood at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
They even brought in a Rabbi to conduct some kind of portal opening ceremony and a ghost appeared on the heat camera in the local haunted house
Yes, this is definitely a thing that happened that we all must accept uncritically as real evidence. Just wander on over to your local haunted house with your PKE meter and see for yourself! Probably a non-terminal repeating phantasm, or a class-five full-roaming vapor.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
Yes, this is definitely a thing that happened that we all must accept uncritically as real evidence. Just wander on over to your local haunted house with your PKE meter and see for yourself! Probably a non-terminal repeating phantasm, or a class-five full-roaming vapor.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:42 AM on July 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
Does the fact that a UAP themed reality show exists undermine the reality of the phenomena?
No but the fact that it's a thing you keep bringing up as evidence sure undermines your claims of having good evidence. Like I don't know what to tell you other than it if you don't want your argument to be judged along side a reality TV show with a REALLY GROSS name then stop bringing up the show with a REALLY GROSS name as supporting your argument.
posted by Gygesringtone at 7:46 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
No but the fact that it's a thing you keep bringing up as evidence sure undermines your claims of having good evidence. Like I don't know what to tell you other than it if you don't want your argument to be judged along side a reality TV show with a REALLY GROSS name then stop bringing up the show with a REALLY GROSS name as supporting your argument.
posted by Gygesringtone at 7:46 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
The US government also spent a ton of money researching telepathy and telekinesis to see if it was real, too.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 7:48 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 7:48 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
And just in case anyone's confused, no, that's not an endorsement of their actions, not even if we got a reasonably entertaining movie out of it.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 7:52 AM on July 19, 2023
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 7:52 AM on July 19, 2023
> No but the fact that it's a thing you keep bringing up as evidence
Not really, I just think it's a cool show and would love to talk to someone about it. As I mentioned, I really have zero desire to debate anyone, I want to discuss stuff. If you're not interested, feel free to not respond.
posted by iivix at 7:55 AM on July 19, 2023
Not really, I just think it's a cool show and would love to talk to someone about it. As I mentioned, I really have zero desire to debate anyone, I want to discuss stuff. If you're not interested, feel free to not respond.
posted by iivix at 7:55 AM on July 19, 2023
Mod note: Derailing comments and a suggestion about starting an argument in a Uri Geller thread have been removed and that derail absolutely ends now.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 8:04 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 8:04 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Not really, I just think it's a cool show and would love to talk to someone about it. As I mentioned, I really have zero desire to debate anyone, I want to discuss stuff. If you're not interested, feel free to not respond.
i feel like at this point fanfare is the right place for that.
posted by inire at 8:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
i feel like at this point fanfare is the right place for that.
posted by inire at 8:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
As I mentioned, I really have zero desire to debate anyone, I want to discuss stuff. If you're not interested, feel free to not respond.
I don't know why you think disagreement isn't a form of discussion? You asked a question and I answered it.
As someone who consumes a fair bit of media, and talks about it a lot among friends, sometimes people have different opinions on things, and that can still be a discussion. Like, if you want to talk about it solely as entertainment, fine: part of talking about entertainment is talking about how it reflects the culture that makes it. In this case, the name is putting up a pretty obvious mirror to some nasty lingering attitudes towards Native Americans.
I really don't know what to tell you other than: folks are going to have different takes on things you bring up, and we're allowed to express them too.
posted by Gygesringtone at 8:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
I don't know why you think disagreement isn't a form of discussion? You asked a question and I answered it.
As someone who consumes a fair bit of media, and talks about it a lot among friends, sometimes people have different opinions on things, and that can still be a discussion. Like, if you want to talk about it solely as entertainment, fine: part of talking about entertainment is talking about how it reflects the culture that makes it. In this case, the name is putting up a pretty obvious mirror to some nasty lingering attitudes towards Native Americans.
I really don't know what to tell you other than: folks are going to have different takes on things you bring up, and we're allowed to express them too.
posted by Gygesringtone at 8:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
i feel like at this point fanfare is the right place for that.
I was going to say the same thing. So I suggested that The Secret of Skinwalker Ranch be added to the FanFare shows.
(Based on my own FF experience, I suggest making a post about all four seasons--I wouldn't expect a lot of comments on per-episode posts. Also, note that it's available on Netflix--it seems like the biggest chunk of the FF demo uses streaming services.)
posted by box at 8:36 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
I was going to say the same thing. So I suggested that The Secret of Skinwalker Ranch be added to the FanFare shows.
(Based on my own FF experience, I suggest making a post about all four seasons--I wouldn't expect a lot of comments on per-episode posts. Also, note that it's available on Netflix--it seems like the biggest chunk of the FF demo uses streaming services.)
posted by box at 8:36 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
notorious for his many anti-feminist videos
As I said when I linked him: he tends toward being over-pleased with himself, and has a bad case of engineer's disease when it comes to commenting on stuff about which he has no expertise, which is why I'll usually avoid doing that.
He knows fuck-all about feminism, and is demonstrably personally unpleasant. But on basic mechanics, optics (the lens and light beam kind, not the public relations kind) and thermodynamics he's 100% sound, and the video I linked covers the present topic thoroughly, accurately and incisively. Credit where credit is due.
posted by flabdablet at 8:40 AM on July 19, 2023
As I said when I linked him: he tends toward being over-pleased with himself, and has a bad case of engineer's disease when it comes to commenting on stuff about which he has no expertise, which is why I'll usually avoid doing that.
He knows fuck-all about feminism, and is demonstrably personally unpleasant. But on basic mechanics, optics (the lens and light beam kind, not the public relations kind) and thermodynamics he's 100% sound, and the video I linked covers the present topic thoroughly, accurately and incisively. Credit where credit is due.
posted by flabdablet at 8:40 AM on July 19, 2023
EEVblog has the same problem; and most of the amateur radio community (though that is starting to change, with a sharp generational divide). Really, all of hobby electronics up until the Arduino era.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:43 AM on July 19, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:43 AM on July 19, 2023
flabdablet I must disagree strongly, worse I have to point out that if he'd been expressing a bigotry you really cared much about you wouldn't be making the argument you are.
Can you imagine, even for a moment, saying the same thing about a racist? Or a Holocaust denier? "Well, yeah, he says Jews are a plague on the Earth and must be eradicated, but he's good about optics so you know, just watch those and ignore the parts where he praises Hitler!"
Yeah, no.
There are LOTS of people who are good on those topics who aren't proven misogynist goons who supported and cheered on a movement that was explicitly trying to drive women to suicide. Use them as your sources instead.
posted by sotonohito at 8:47 AM on July 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
Can you imagine, even for a moment, saying the same thing about a racist? Or a Holocaust denier? "Well, yeah, he says Jews are a plague on the Earth and must be eradicated, but he's good about optics so you know, just watch those and ignore the parts where he praises Hitler!"
Yeah, no.
There are LOTS of people who are good on those topics who aren't proven misogynist goons who supported and cheered on a movement that was explicitly trying to drive women to suicide. Use them as your sources instead.
posted by sotonohito at 8:47 AM on July 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
I mean, he directed harassment campaigns against Mefites. I don't think that's something that can be shrugged off with "credit where credit is due".
posted by CrystalDave at 8:50 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by CrystalDave at 8:50 AM on July 19, 2023 [6 favorites]
I apologize for any personal distress that my choice of presenter has caused any reader here. I was unaware of his involvement in harassment campaigns.
If anybody can link another source who lays out the utter vapidity of the present round of Making Shit Up About UAPs equally clearly, specifically and trenchantly I'd appreciate it.
As always, I recommend watching anything on YouTube only with an ad blocker in place, and contributing directly to content creators you like who provide non-advertising-dependent ways to do so.
posted by flabdablet at 9:32 AM on July 19, 2023
If anybody can link another source who lays out the utter vapidity of the present round of Making Shit Up About UAPs equally clearly, specifically and trenchantly I'd appreciate it.
As always, I recommend watching anything on YouTube only with an ad blocker in place, and contributing directly to content creators you like who provide non-advertising-dependent ways to do so.
posted by flabdablet at 9:32 AM on July 19, 2023
Meanwhile, here's Rebecca Watson on Skinwalker Ranch and David Grusch:
Conspiracy Time! UFOs & the COVID Lab Leak Hypothesis (Rebecca Watson, YouTube, 14m38s)
posted by flabdablet at 9:47 AM on July 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
Conspiracy Time! UFOs & the COVID Lab Leak Hypothesis (Rebecca Watson, YouTube, 14m38s)
posted by flabdablet at 9:47 AM on July 19, 2023 [7 favorites]
UAPs are real, in the sense that people have perceived them. The claim that they are evidence of nonhuman intelligence is not supported by their mere existence.
Assuming an explanation consistent with the laws of physics is not a large leap. We know physics are very reliable, in that so far we have never observed anything that wasn't governed by those laws. We have tested those laws sufficiently that we can account for things like the tiny amount of relativistic time distortion in GPS satellites.
Conversely, we have never observed nonhuman intelligence (octopuses aside). There is no known mechanism by which interdimensional entities could even exist, let alone build ships and crash them in Brazil.
If you observe something unusual and are unable to obtain enough data to determine an unambiguous cause, it is more parsimonious to assume it is an error in recording or perception than to posit an entire new set of physical laws. Errors are known to happen. Violations of the laws of physics have not yet been repeatably demonstrated.
The large number of people, even elected officials, who believe in them is irrelevant. Belief in things that are not real is nearly universal for humans, especially historically. The existence of this investigation does not constitute evidence that the investigation is justified, any more than running an experiment is grounds for assuming the hypothesis is true.
I would much rather see an investigation into military and intelligence malfeasance on its own terms than an investigation that relies on wild speculation and which is easily derailed by the readily supported assertion that aliens are not visiting Earth. If you want to talk about your partner cheating on you, don't open the discussion with an allegation that they, I don't know, flew secretly to Epstein Island and left a bio-clone of themselves to distract you while they were gone.
posted by Scattercat at 10:02 AM on July 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
Assuming an explanation consistent with the laws of physics is not a large leap. We know physics are very reliable, in that so far we have never observed anything that wasn't governed by those laws. We have tested those laws sufficiently that we can account for things like the tiny amount of relativistic time distortion in GPS satellites.
Conversely, we have never observed nonhuman intelligence (octopuses aside). There is no known mechanism by which interdimensional entities could even exist, let alone build ships and crash them in Brazil.
If you observe something unusual and are unable to obtain enough data to determine an unambiguous cause, it is more parsimonious to assume it is an error in recording or perception than to posit an entire new set of physical laws. Errors are known to happen. Violations of the laws of physics have not yet been repeatably demonstrated.
The large number of people, even elected officials, who believe in them is irrelevant. Belief in things that are not real is nearly universal for humans, especially historically. The existence of this investigation does not constitute evidence that the investigation is justified, any more than running an experiment is grounds for assuming the hypothesis is true.
I would much rather see an investigation into military and intelligence malfeasance on its own terms than an investigation that relies on wild speculation and which is easily derailed by the readily supported assertion that aliens are not visiting Earth. If you want to talk about your partner cheating on you, don't open the discussion with an allegation that they, I don't know, flew secretly to Epstein Island and left a bio-clone of themselves to distract you while they were gone.
posted by Scattercat at 10:02 AM on July 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
I suggested that The Secret of Skinwalker Ranch be added to the FanFare shows.
And it's been added (thanks loup!)
posted by box at 10:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
And it's been added (thanks loup!)
posted by box at 10:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
"This is a great choice of marks"
Who's Pranking Sam Harris & Eric Weinstein about UFOs? (Rebecca Watson, YouTube, 19m5s)
posted by flabdablet at 10:13 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Who's Pranking Sam Harris & Eric Weinstein about UFOs? (Rebecca Watson, YouTube, 19m5s)
posted by flabdablet at 10:13 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
We know physics are very reliable, in that so far we have never observed anything that wasn't governed by those laws. We have tested those laws sufficiently that we can account for things like the tiny amount of relativistic time distortion in GPS satellites.
correction: we know that the laws of physics we have identified are very reliable, insofar as we have been able to test and observe them. we also know that our present understanding of physics has significant known unknowns, and it is plausible that there are significant unknown unknowns as well. if a much more advanced intelligence existed, it is not much of a stretch to posit that it has e.g. discovered a coherent theory of everything that enables it to do things that violate or otherwise depart from the laws we have identified, in much the same way that ibn al-haytham would have found it tough to develop the atomic bomb.
Conversely, we have never observed nonhuman intelligence (octopuses aside). There is no known mechanism by which interdimensional entities could even exist, let alone build ships and crash them in Brazil.
all perfectly true, but the extent to which that’s relevant to the probability of such things existing depends in part on the scope of our observation and knowledge. juvenal had never observed a black swan, and the brightest minds of the renaissance knew of no mechanism by which a person sitting in england could see and speak to a person in france in real time. and yet here we are.
If you observe something unusual and are unable to obtain enough data to determine an unambiguous cause, it is more parsimonious to assume it is an error in recording or perception than to posit an entire new set of physical laws. Errors are known to happen. Violations of the laws of physics have not yet been repeatably demonstrated.
a compelling argument for the death of scientific inquiry! if you observe something unusual and lack the data to explain it, you don’t assume that it’s an error and dismiss it - you investigate it, to the best extent you can. a good argument can be made that the early stages of any form of scientific discovery are about identifying things that seem wrong or violate what you currently believe, and looking at those things more closely.
The existence of this investigation does not constitute evidence that the investigation is justified, any more than running an experiment is grounds for assuming the hypothesis is true.
certainly. in contrast, the events, allegations and uncertainties documented at length in the above links do constitute evidence that the investigation is justified, unless you are privy to information that rules out the various non-alien but national security-related explanations. (in which case, i suggest you call schumer.)
I would much rather see an investigation into military and intelligence malfeasance on its own terms than an investigation that relies on wild speculation and which is easily derailed by the readily supported assertion that aliens are not visiting Earth.
again, if you’re privy to the information on which the investigation relies, please do let us know (or don’t, because some of it is apparently classified and you could go to prison).
posted by inire at 11:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
correction: we know that the laws of physics we have identified are very reliable, insofar as we have been able to test and observe them. we also know that our present understanding of physics has significant known unknowns, and it is plausible that there are significant unknown unknowns as well. if a much more advanced intelligence existed, it is not much of a stretch to posit that it has e.g. discovered a coherent theory of everything that enables it to do things that violate or otherwise depart from the laws we have identified, in much the same way that ibn al-haytham would have found it tough to develop the atomic bomb.
Conversely, we have never observed nonhuman intelligence (octopuses aside). There is no known mechanism by which interdimensional entities could even exist, let alone build ships and crash them in Brazil.
all perfectly true, but the extent to which that’s relevant to the probability of such things existing depends in part on the scope of our observation and knowledge. juvenal had never observed a black swan, and the brightest minds of the renaissance knew of no mechanism by which a person sitting in england could see and speak to a person in france in real time. and yet here we are.
If you observe something unusual and are unable to obtain enough data to determine an unambiguous cause, it is more parsimonious to assume it is an error in recording or perception than to posit an entire new set of physical laws. Errors are known to happen. Violations of the laws of physics have not yet been repeatably demonstrated.
a compelling argument for the death of scientific inquiry! if you observe something unusual and lack the data to explain it, you don’t assume that it’s an error and dismiss it - you investigate it, to the best extent you can. a good argument can be made that the early stages of any form of scientific discovery are about identifying things that seem wrong or violate what you currently believe, and looking at those things more closely.
The existence of this investigation does not constitute evidence that the investigation is justified, any more than running an experiment is grounds for assuming the hypothesis is true.
certainly. in contrast, the events, allegations and uncertainties documented at length in the above links do constitute evidence that the investigation is justified, unless you are privy to information that rules out the various non-alien but national security-related explanations. (in which case, i suggest you call schumer.)
I would much rather see an investigation into military and intelligence malfeasance on its own terms than an investigation that relies on wild speculation and which is easily derailed by the readily supported assertion that aliens are not visiting Earth.
again, if you’re privy to the information on which the investigation relies, please do let us know (or don’t, because some of it is apparently classified and you could go to prison).
posted by inire at 11:12 AM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
They do investigate further, and then find no physical evidence. At that point, you assume the initial blip was an error.
It's possible that gravity isn't real and that it's actually invisible goblins pushing things down every time. I don't see a need to fund an Invisible Goblin panel where the evidence consists of lists of things that have fallen when no one was looking. The chance that we catch a naughty kid pushing things over in the process is not enticing. I would rather have a different Asshole Kid panel if that's what we expect to find.
posted by Scattercat at 11:20 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
It's possible that gravity isn't real and that it's actually invisible goblins pushing things down every time. I don't see a need to fund an Invisible Goblin panel where the evidence consists of lists of things that have fallen when no one was looking. The chance that we catch a naughty kid pushing things over in the process is not enticing. I would rather have a different Asshole Kid panel if that's what we expect to find.
posted by Scattercat at 11:20 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
> if you’re privy to the information on which the investigation relies, please do let us know
I think this is what is so bizarre about this situation - this is mainstream news, mainstream legislation, lots of important and smart people making a big deal over, well, something... but a thread full of MetaFilter posters knows better than everyone on the inside of this because they've watched a Thunderf00t or Rebecca Watson video on YouTube? Not agreeing with experts and authorities, and instead aligning with random youtubers because they reinforce positions you already hold? That's normally the kind of "do your own research" thinking that should ring alarm bells that you're on the wrong side of the truth.
posted by iivix at 11:22 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
I think this is what is so bizarre about this situation - this is mainstream news, mainstream legislation, lots of important and smart people making a big deal over, well, something... but a thread full of MetaFilter posters knows better than everyone on the inside of this because they've watched a Thunderf00t or Rebecca Watson video on YouTube? Not agreeing with experts and authorities, and instead aligning with random youtubers because they reinforce positions you already hold? That's normally the kind of "do your own research" thinking that should ring alarm bells that you're on the wrong side of the truth.
posted by iivix at 11:22 AM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
if a much more advanced intelligence existed, it is not much of a stretch to posit that it has e.g. discovered a coherent theory of everything that enables it to do things that violate or otherwise depart from the laws we have identified,
And yet they always seem to crash land every time they get here.
posted by bondcliff at 11:32 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
And yet they always seem to crash land every time they get here.
posted by bondcliff at 11:32 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Actual experts on space aren't running this. That's why they had to get guys from a scripted reality show.
posted by Scattercat at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by Scattercat at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2023 [9 favorites]
I am sympathetic, it's the biggest news there is, finding out UAPs are real and we are possibly sharing our planet with non-human intelligences. It's harder to take in and process than impending climate collapse or the disruption of a global pandemic, the only comparable events we've encountered so far.
posted by iivix at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by iivix at 11:33 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
They do investigate further, and then find no physical evidence. At that point, you assume the initial blip was an error.
strictly speaking, you recognise that you don’t know what caused the blip. you might then conclude that based on the limited information you do have, looking at the various possible explanations, error has the highest probability of being true. where you go from there depends on the context. if the context is you’re a civilian radar operator who saw a weird return, maybe it goes nowhere. if you’re congress and you’re looking at the linked allegations and a bunch of supporting classified information that raises the prospect of senior officials being detached from reality, chinese drone surveillance of us navy exercises, and / or aliens, it would be a bold move to assume it’s all bullshit and dismiss it without precisely the kind of further investigation that we’re seeing here.
It's possible that gravity isn't real and that it's actually invisible goblins pushing things down every time. I don't see a need to fund an Invisible Goblin panel where the evidence consists of lists of things that have fallen when no one was looking.
didn’t realise we had an equivalent range of allegations re invisible gravity goblins, but i guess i haven’t been following the news.
posted by inire at 11:35 AM on July 19, 2023
strictly speaking, you recognise that you don’t know what caused the blip. you might then conclude that based on the limited information you do have, looking at the various possible explanations, error has the highest probability of being true. where you go from there depends on the context. if the context is you’re a civilian radar operator who saw a weird return, maybe it goes nowhere. if you’re congress and you’re looking at the linked allegations and a bunch of supporting classified information that raises the prospect of senior officials being detached from reality, chinese drone surveillance of us navy exercises, and / or aliens, it would be a bold move to assume it’s all bullshit and dismiss it without precisely the kind of further investigation that we’re seeing here.
It's possible that gravity isn't real and that it's actually invisible goblins pushing things down every time. I don't see a need to fund an Invisible Goblin panel where the evidence consists of lists of things that have fallen when no one was looking.
didn’t realise we had an equivalent range of allegations re invisible gravity goblins, but i guess i haven’t been following the news.
posted by inire at 11:35 AM on July 19, 2023
>Actual experts on space aren't running this.
Currently taking an interest are, to quote Rhaomi above: "Senate leadership, the Five Eyes agencies, NASA, the Pentagon, multiple high-level military analysts, etc"
Don't let my love of the beautiful Dr Travis S Taylor obscure the reality that there is lots of expert and institutional support for, at the very least, taking this seriously.
posted by iivix at 11:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Currently taking an interest are, to quote Rhaomi above: "Senate leadership, the Five Eyes agencies, NASA, the Pentagon, multiple high-level military analysts, etc"
Don't let my love of the beautiful Dr Travis S Taylor obscure the reality that there is lots of expert and institutional support for, at the very least, taking this seriously.
posted by iivix at 11:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Again, I'd rather they said "we're investigating that the military didn't share data with Congress for oversight."
They didn't, though. They started an investigation into "nonhuman intelligence," and that's way easier to refute or derail. I fully support checking the military and intelligence agencies; they are notoriously bad actors. Aliens is a dumb way to do that.
posted by Scattercat at 11:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
They didn't, though. They started an investigation into "nonhuman intelligence," and that's way easier to refute or derail. I fully support checking the military and intelligence agencies; they are notoriously bad actors. Aliens is a dumb way to do that.
posted by Scattercat at 11:40 AM on July 19, 2023 [4 favorites]
Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 "Gimbal" UAP
Related 30-page manuscript with supplemental data and sources
Published by atmospheric scientist Dr. Yannick Peings and former Defense analyst Marik von Rennenkampff for the AIAA AVIATION forum in San Diego last month.
posted by Rhaomi at 11:47 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Related 30-page manuscript with supplemental data and sources
Published by atmospheric scientist Dr. Yannick Peings and former Defense analyst Marik von Rennenkampff for the AIAA AVIATION forum in San Diego last month.
posted by Rhaomi at 11:47 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
correction: we know that the laws of physics we have identified are very reliable, insofar as we have been able to test and observe them. we also know that our present understanding of physics has significant known unknowns, and it is plausible that there are significant unknown unknowns as well. if a much more advanced intelligence existed, it is not much of a stretch to posit that it has e.g. discovered a coherent theory of everything that enables it to do things that violate or otherwise depart from the laws we have identified, in much the same way that ibn al-haytham would have found it tough to develop the atomic bomb.
Not knowing if something is possible does not make it possible, and neatly skipping over engaging with the context of the sum total of human knowledge at the time of Ibn al-Haytham and now makes this seem like a bad faith argument. The quality and quantity of scientific observation is vastly different.
Similarly, to a different poster, you absolutely cannot put "mainstream news, mainstream legislation, lots of important and smart people making a big deal over, well, something" vs "random youtubers" on the same level as "the kind of 'do your own research' thinking that should ring alarm bells" without delving into the contextual differences between this situation and the covid conspiracy stuff you're invoking and have that be any kind of good faith argument. Just because things may seem similar on a surface-level reading does not mean they are the same. The "mainstream news, mainstream legislation, lots of important and smart people making a big deal over, well, something" and "random youtubers" are presenting very different qualities of evidence here vs the covid conspiracy situation.
posted by jason_steakums at 11:51 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not knowing if something is possible does not make it possible, and neatly skipping over engaging with the context of the sum total of human knowledge at the time of Ibn al-Haytham and now makes this seem like a bad faith argument. The quality and quantity of scientific observation is vastly different.
Similarly, to a different poster, you absolutely cannot put "mainstream news, mainstream legislation, lots of important and smart people making a big deal over, well, something" vs "random youtubers" on the same level as "the kind of 'do your own research' thinking that should ring alarm bells" without delving into the contextual differences between this situation and the covid conspiracy stuff you're invoking and have that be any kind of good faith argument. Just because things may seem similar on a surface-level reading does not mean they are the same. The "mainstream news, mainstream legislation, lots of important and smart people making a big deal over, well, something" and "random youtubers" are presenting very different qualities of evidence here vs the covid conspiracy situation.
posted by jason_steakums at 11:51 AM on July 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not knowing if something is possible does not make it possible, and neatly skipping over engaging with the context of the sum total of human knowledge at the time of Ibn al-Haytham and now makes this seem like a bad faith argument. The quality and quantity of scientific observation is vastly different.
not knowing if something is possible certainly doesn’t make it possible, hence my couching of most of this in hypotheticals and emphasis on the unknowns, but at this point it would be a significant improvement for many posters in this thread to acknowledge that we don’t, in fact, know if aliens, nhi etc. are possible, rather than confidently asserting that they are impossible.
the sum total of human knowledge is obviously bigger now than in al-haytham’s time. the relevant question is not how much bigger it is relevant to that, but how big it is relevant to the sum total of potential knowledge re physics. happy to hear any suggestion as to how we might establish that.
i’ll ignore the suggestion of bad faith, as i don’t think it merits a response.
posted by inire at 11:59 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
not knowing if something is possible certainly doesn’t make it possible, hence my couching of most of this in hypotheticals and emphasis on the unknowns, but at this point it would be a significant improvement for many posters in this thread to acknowledge that we don’t, in fact, know if aliens, nhi etc. are possible, rather than confidently asserting that they are impossible.
the sum total of human knowledge is obviously bigger now than in al-haytham’s time. the relevant question is not how much bigger it is relevant to that, but how big it is relevant to the sum total of potential knowledge re physics. happy to hear any suggestion as to how we might establish that.
i’ll ignore the suggestion of bad faith, as i don’t think it merits a response.
posted by inire at 11:59 AM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
In their April 23 report to Congress the AARO (the official org in the US DOD) reported that they have analyzed 630 UAP reports and that none of them appear to be of alien origin. David Grusch the whistleblower has said that he never saw any evidence of aliens, only that he heard about it from people he deemed credible.
Mick West spends most of his time talking about non-government UAP reports. Things like the videos published on TV programs and amateur reports. His work is meticulous and he often demonstrates how the camera or compression algorithms can trick the viewer.
Assuming that he is wrong, or not credible because of some imaginary additional evidence that the government has not presented is unreasonable. If you allow for imaginary secret evidence then you disregard any analysis or conclusion. Beyond this his conclusions are often correlated to known external data as in the example below. It is doubtful that a radar trace or other would do anything other than confirm his conclusion,
In the case of the Pyramid UFO video he goes to great lengths to determine if cameras of this type have triangular irises or lens covers. He identifies some of the objects as stars and the planet Jupiter and he notes that the moving UAP is blinking with the same pattern as a commercial aircraft and that the ship was below a major air route. Those are all supporting facts that suggest his hypothesis is correct. It would take some pretty extraordinary evidence to convince me that he is wrong here.
posted by interogative mood at 12:25 PM on July 19, 2023 [12 favorites]
Mick West spends most of his time talking about non-government UAP reports. Things like the videos published on TV programs and amateur reports. His work is meticulous and he often demonstrates how the camera or compression algorithms can trick the viewer.
Assuming that he is wrong, or not credible because of some imaginary additional evidence that the government has not presented is unreasonable. If you allow for imaginary secret evidence then you disregard any analysis or conclusion. Beyond this his conclusions are often correlated to known external data as in the example below. It is doubtful that a radar trace or other would do anything other than confirm his conclusion,
In the case of the Pyramid UFO video he goes to great lengths to determine if cameras of this type have triangular irises or lens covers. He identifies some of the objects as stars and the planet Jupiter and he notes that the moving UAP is blinking with the same pattern as a commercial aircraft and that the ship was below a major air route. Those are all supporting facts that suggest his hypothesis is correct. It would take some pretty extraordinary evidence to convince me that he is wrong here.
posted by interogative mood at 12:25 PM on July 19, 2023 [12 favorites]
not knowing if something is possible certainly doesn’t make it possible, hence my couching of most of this in hypotheticals and emphasis on the unknowns, but at this point it would be a significant improvement for many posters in this thread to acknowledge that we don’t, in fact, know if aliens, nhi etc. are possible, rather than confidently asserting that they are impossible.
I don't see why it would be a significant improvement for people who are discussing things explicitly within the bounds of available evidence and reasonable inferences from it to acknowledge... an entirely different conversation about what might exist in a hypothetical realm of infinite possibilities outside of what can be inferred from the best available evidence. Like, are you wanting everyone to start their comments with a disclaimer that everything that follows is conditional on no new evidence being discovered? It's very much implied when you're talking about something in an evidence-based context.
posted by jason_steakums at 12:41 PM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't see why it would be a significant improvement for people who are discussing things explicitly within the bounds of available evidence and reasonable inferences from it to acknowledge... an entirely different conversation about what might exist in a hypothetical realm of infinite possibilities outside of what can be inferred from the best available evidence. Like, are you wanting everyone to start their comments with a disclaimer that everything that follows is conditional on no new evidence being discovered? It's very much implied when you're talking about something in an evidence-based context.
posted by jason_steakums at 12:41 PM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
inire: "Why does the US have the monopoly on this information? There's not a single piece of evidence being held by any country that doesn't take orders from Washington? Not one? Ever?
as to why a country not aligned with the us on general geopolitical issues might nonetheless choose not to publicise the information it holds about aliens / nhi, i think there are a range of fairly obvious potential explanations. the lack of any such publication therefore doesn't prove much, if anything, about the topic being discussed."
What are these fairly obvious potential explanations for the absolute lack of any evidence being presented by any state actor, ever?
This is a simple, direct question. Please answer it directly, not by putting other words in my mouth or arguing against what you think my assumptions are.
posted by signal at 12:57 PM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
as to why a country not aligned with the us on general geopolitical issues might nonetheless choose not to publicise the information it holds about aliens / nhi, i think there are a range of fairly obvious potential explanations. the lack of any such publication therefore doesn't prove much, if anything, about the topic being discussed."
What are these fairly obvious potential explanations for the absolute lack of any evidence being presented by any state actor, ever?
This is a simple, direct question. Please answer it directly, not by putting other words in my mouth or arguing against what you think my assumptions are.
posted by signal at 12:57 PM on July 19, 2023 [5 favorites]
In their April 23 report to Congress the AARO (the official org in the US DOD) reported that they have analyzed 630 UAP reports and that none of them appear to be of alien origin. David Grusch the whistleblower has said that he never saw any evidence of aliens, only that he heard about it from people he deemed credible.
Mick West spends most of his time talking about non-government UAP reports. Things like the videos published on TV programs and amateur reports. His work is meticulous and he often demonstrates how the camera or compression algorithms can trick the viewer.
Assuming that he is wrong, or not credible because of some imaginary additional evidence that the government has not presented is unreasonable. If you allow for imaginary secret evidence then you disregard any analysis or conclusion.
to expand slightly re the aaro report, it stated that there was no credible evidence of any of those reports being of alien origin. kirkpatrick expanded on that by noting that the majority of the reports had the expected characteristics of the usual mundane phenomena (balloons, radar clutter, natural phenomena, etc.), although there was insufficient data for many of these to identify them with any certainty. a very small proportion of the reports "could reasonably be described as anomalous" - there was again insufficient data to draw any conclusions about those reports.
i would expect that the majority of reports would be misidentifications with mundane explanations even if aliens were flying around. i have a fair amount of time for mick west, and he (and others) have done good work in pointing out the huge variety of ways in which misidentifications can happen - they're pretty common. the difficulty comes when you try to extrapolate from all of that to a conclusion that any report must necessarily be a misidentification, which goes several steps further with little support.
on 'imaginary secret evidence', i would urge you to read the links at the top of this thread, which make clear that there is non-imaginary classified evidence being provided to congress on this topic. what that evidence is and how reliable it is, we have no idea, but i'd note rubio has been reported as saying that other witnesses have come forward, including people who purport to be first-hand witnesses to recovered uap hardware. perfectly possible they're bullshitters, but it's fairly obvious that there could, in principle, be secret information that would undermine the prior 'aliens aren't real' consensus. the question is whether this is that evidence or not.
posted by inire at 1:24 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mick West spends most of his time talking about non-government UAP reports. Things like the videos published on TV programs and amateur reports. His work is meticulous and he often demonstrates how the camera or compression algorithms can trick the viewer.
Assuming that he is wrong, or not credible because of some imaginary additional evidence that the government has not presented is unreasonable. If you allow for imaginary secret evidence then you disregard any analysis or conclusion.
to expand slightly re the aaro report, it stated that there was no credible evidence of any of those reports being of alien origin. kirkpatrick expanded on that by noting that the majority of the reports had the expected characteristics of the usual mundane phenomena (balloons, radar clutter, natural phenomena, etc.), although there was insufficient data for many of these to identify them with any certainty. a very small proportion of the reports "could reasonably be described as anomalous" - there was again insufficient data to draw any conclusions about those reports.
i would expect that the majority of reports would be misidentifications with mundane explanations even if aliens were flying around. i have a fair amount of time for mick west, and he (and others) have done good work in pointing out the huge variety of ways in which misidentifications can happen - they're pretty common. the difficulty comes when you try to extrapolate from all of that to a conclusion that any report must necessarily be a misidentification, which goes several steps further with little support.
on 'imaginary secret evidence', i would urge you to read the links at the top of this thread, which make clear that there is non-imaginary classified evidence being provided to congress on this topic. what that evidence is and how reliable it is, we have no idea, but i'd note rubio has been reported as saying that other witnesses have come forward, including people who purport to be first-hand witnesses to recovered uap hardware. perfectly possible they're bullshitters, but it's fairly obvious that there could, in principle, be secret information that would undermine the prior 'aliens aren't real' consensus. the question is whether this is that evidence or not.
posted by inire at 1:24 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't see why it would be a significant improvement for people who are discussing things explicitly within the bounds of available evidence and reasonable inferences from it to acknowledge... an entirely different conversation about what might exist in a hypothetical realm of infinite possibilities outside of what can be inferred from the best available evidence. Like, are you wanting everyone to start their comments with a disclaimer that everything that follows is conditional on no new evidence being discovered? It's very much implied when you're talking about something in an evidence-based context.
it would be an improvement because the entire subject of this post is about purported evidence that has not previously been available to anyone, and is now supposedly being made available piecemeal to congress (who are taking steps to obtain more of it), but overwhelmingly continues not to be available to anyone else. the entire post is dealing in hypotheticals and not-yet-knowns, and yet many posters are expressing a level of certainty that is entirely unwarranted, both on the facts as known and on the merits of their own arguments.
the idea that those posters have been impliedly qualifying their dismissals is, i think, overly charitable and starkly at odds with much of the reaction in this thread to comments expressing such qualifications. i take them at their word - they're certain that this is bullshit, not just concluding that bullshit is the most likely of several possible explanations. obviously if biden turns up on tv with a live alien in tow they'll revise their conclusion, because who wouldn't, but that's not the point. the point is that the facts as they stand do not support their level of certainty. recognition of that would improve the discussion.
posted by inire at 1:34 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
it would be an improvement because the entire subject of this post is about purported evidence that has not previously been available to anyone, and is now supposedly being made available piecemeal to congress (who are taking steps to obtain more of it), but overwhelmingly continues not to be available to anyone else. the entire post is dealing in hypotheticals and not-yet-knowns, and yet many posters are expressing a level of certainty that is entirely unwarranted, both on the facts as known and on the merits of their own arguments.
the idea that those posters have been impliedly qualifying their dismissals is, i think, overly charitable and starkly at odds with much of the reaction in this thread to comments expressing such qualifications. i take them at their word - they're certain that this is bullshit, not just concluding that bullshit is the most likely of several possible explanations. obviously if biden turns up on tv with a live alien in tow they'll revise their conclusion, because who wouldn't, but that's not the point. the point is that the facts as they stand do not support their level of certainty. recognition of that would improve the discussion.
posted by inire at 1:34 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
What are these fairly obvious potential explanations for the absolute lack of any evidence being presented by any state actor, ever?
This is a simple, direct question. Please answer it directly, not by putting other words in my mouth or arguing against what you think my assumptions are.
mmm, i love being sternly instructed to answer simple, direct questions - makes me feel like i'm a walk-on character in the wire. anyway, i digress. some potential explanations, in no particular order, of why a non-us-aligned country X in possession of evidence about aliens / nhi might choose not to publicly disclose it:
- country X's evidence is not very convincing in isolation and it doesn't want to be an international laughing stock.
- the evidence is potentially incredibly valuable and country X doesn't want anyone else to have it, or to know that country X has it.
- country X doesn't know what evidence (if any) other countries have about aliens / nhi and doesn't want to tip its hand publicly without knowing that.
- country X stole the evidence from another country and thinks the downside of that becoming known outweighs the benefits of public disclosure.
- country X sees no obvious benefit to itself from publicly disclosing the evidence.
- country X sees massive potential downside to itself from publicly disclosing the evidence (e.g. disclosure of novel mechanism to generate massive amounts of energy for propulsion leads to a supernuke arms race).
- country X is non-us-aligned on general geopolitical issues but has some communication and coordination with the us on topics seen as sufficiently important, albeit with plenty of associated intelligence fuckery (see: backchannel us / soviet contacts during the cold war) and there is an agreement to keep such evidence secret due to perceived benefits of secrecy / risks of disclosure.
no doubt there are more but these were the first few that sprang to mind. they seem obvious to me, but i guess they may not have been for others.
last post for tonight, because i need to go to bed, but happy to respond to any other questions (simple or otherwise) in the morning.
posted by inire at 1:50 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is a simple, direct question. Please answer it directly, not by putting other words in my mouth or arguing against what you think my assumptions are.
mmm, i love being sternly instructed to answer simple, direct questions - makes me feel like i'm a walk-on character in the wire. anyway, i digress. some potential explanations, in no particular order, of why a non-us-aligned country X in possession of evidence about aliens / nhi might choose not to publicly disclose it:
- country X's evidence is not very convincing in isolation and it doesn't want to be an international laughing stock.
- the evidence is potentially incredibly valuable and country X doesn't want anyone else to have it, or to know that country X has it.
- country X doesn't know what evidence (if any) other countries have about aliens / nhi and doesn't want to tip its hand publicly without knowing that.
- country X stole the evidence from another country and thinks the downside of that becoming known outweighs the benefits of public disclosure.
- country X sees no obvious benefit to itself from publicly disclosing the evidence.
- country X sees massive potential downside to itself from publicly disclosing the evidence (e.g. disclosure of novel mechanism to generate massive amounts of energy for propulsion leads to a supernuke arms race).
- country X is non-us-aligned on general geopolitical issues but has some communication and coordination with the us on topics seen as sufficiently important, albeit with plenty of associated intelligence fuckery (see: backchannel us / soviet contacts during the cold war) and there is an agreement to keep such evidence secret due to perceived benefits of secrecy / risks of disclosure.
no doubt there are more but these were the first few that sprang to mind. they seem obvious to me, but i guess they may not have been for others.
last post for tonight, because i need to go to bed, but happy to respond to any other questions (simple or otherwise) in the morning.
posted by inire at 1:50 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
I didn't ask why a single hypothetical country might choose not to publicize their evidence. This is my question:
What are these fairly obvious potential explanations for the absolute lack of any evidence being presented by any state actor, ever?
If you feel like answering it, that would be nice.
posted by signal at 1:53 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
What are these fairly obvious potential explanations for the absolute lack of any evidence being presented by any state actor, ever?
If you feel like answering it, that would be nice.
posted by signal at 1:53 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
it would be an improvement because the entire subject of this post is about purported evidence that has not previously been available to anyone,
It's been made available to teams of investigators and their hired help and service workers for 75+ years. The whistleblower himself alleges that the first craft were in Italy in 1933 . Seriously dude. Please stop with the nonsense. By 'nobody', you actually mean hundreds to thousands of people in the US alone, and they have done nothing with what they found.
- the evidence is potentially incredibly valuable and country X doesn't want anyone else to have it, or to know that country X has it.
LOL. Again, they have done nothing with it. Alien technology didn't make nuclear bombs or stealth fighters, friends and relatives to me did along with thousands of other people, iteratively over the course of their entire careers.
posted by The_Vegetables at 1:54 PM on July 19, 2023 [12 favorites]
It's been made available to teams of investigators and their hired help and service workers for 75+ years. The whistleblower himself alleges that the first craft were in Italy in 1933 . Seriously dude. Please stop with the nonsense. By 'nobody', you actually mean hundreds to thousands of people in the US alone, and they have done nothing with what they found.
- the evidence is potentially incredibly valuable and country X doesn't want anyone else to have it, or to know that country X has it.
LOL. Again, they have done nothing with it. Alien technology didn't make nuclear bombs or stealth fighters, friends and relatives to me did along with thousands of other people, iteratively over the course of their entire careers.
posted by The_Vegetables at 1:54 PM on July 19, 2023 [12 favorites]
it would be an improvement because the entire subject of this post is about purported evidence that has not previously been available to anyone, and is now supposedly being made available piecemeal to congress (who are taking steps to obtain more of it), but overwhelmingly continues not to be available to anyone else. the entire post is dealing in hypotheticals and not-yet-knowns, and yet many posters are expressing a level of certainty that is entirely unwarranted, both on the facts as known and on the merits of their own arguments.
Sure, but there's absolutely no reason to believe that the evidence in question could be evidence of something that is outside of the bounds of reasonable inference starting from our scientific observations of the universe. That's the disconnect, there's a whole conversation taking the open ended possibilities of this supposed evidence and running with it to an unreasonable degree, and a conversation grounding that in our understanding of the universe. There is absolutely no reason to think that it's more likely that physics as we know it is more guidelines than rules, fun as that may be, than to think that whatever this evidence may be it's either going to fall apart on closer inspection or is a whole lot more mundane than the hype.
posted by jason_steakums at 1:59 PM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Sure, but there's absolutely no reason to believe that the evidence in question could be evidence of something that is outside of the bounds of reasonable inference starting from our scientific observations of the universe. That's the disconnect, there's a whole conversation taking the open ended possibilities of this supposed evidence and running with it to an unreasonable degree, and a conversation grounding that in our understanding of the universe. There is absolutely no reason to think that it's more likely that physics as we know it is more guidelines than rules, fun as that may be, than to think that whatever this evidence may be it's either going to fall apart on closer inspection or is a whole lot more mundane than the hype.
posted by jason_steakums at 1:59 PM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
bless you, signal, how could i not feel like answering such a charmingly posed follow-up?
to very briefly respond, the lack of evidence from any state actor could be due to:
- no-one really knows what anyone else has, and therefore everyone with any evidence is disinclined to publicise it for one or more of the reasons set out in my previous comment.
- state actors do know (at least in broad terms) what evidence each of them has, and have agreed not to disclose it, due to potential downside risks / lack of obvious upside.
i hope this is nice, and am now definitely off to bed - if it doesn't suffice, let me know and i can expand on it tomorrow.
posted by inire at 2:03 PM on July 19, 2023
to very briefly respond, the lack of evidence from any state actor could be due to:
- no-one really knows what anyone else has, and therefore everyone with any evidence is disinclined to publicise it for one or more of the reasons set out in my previous comment.
- state actors do know (at least in broad terms) what evidence each of them has, and have agreed not to disclose it, due to potential downside risks / lack of obvious upside.
i hope this is nice, and am now definitely off to bed - if it doesn't suffice, let me know and i can expand on it tomorrow.
posted by inire at 2:03 PM on July 19, 2023
> to very briefly respond, the lack of evidence from any state actor could be due to:
If you believe we *have* been visited by aliens and that our gov'ts know about these visits, then it's easy to confabulate scenarios that explain why those gov'ts are keeping this fact a secret, since they obviously haven't announced these visitors from distant stars. Not having announced them, they must be keeping them a secret, therefore one is motivated to produce reasons for that secrecy.
Consider reasoning differently. Assume the more likely scenario: we have not been visited by aliens. Then, ask yourself, if we were visited by aliens, *would* our gov'ts have more motivation to keep it a secret, or to announce it? Throw out *all* the motivated reasoning you already have that tells you that there are all these reasons to keep it a secret because you assume it's already a secret (such as that it will cause mass hysteria or gov't instability or whatever) and really consider what the likely course of action would be. I think we would tell the world. I think the US would be so proud that aliens came to see us first, and I think politically it would be a fantastic win for any President to be the one who began diplomatic relations with extra terrestrials, and to be the one who brought incredible and transformative technological and scientific innovations. Can you imagine breaking in to prime time TV to announce alien contact? Show me a chief of staff that wouldn't literally kill to get that moment. Handled well that's a guaranteed second term if not a chance to remove term limits. From this perspective the fact that we haven't heard anything serves not to reinforce that they are here with us, but that they have not come around at all.
posted by dis_integration at 2:47 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
If you believe we *have* been visited by aliens and that our gov'ts know about these visits, then it's easy to confabulate scenarios that explain why those gov'ts are keeping this fact a secret, since they obviously haven't announced these visitors from distant stars. Not having announced them, they must be keeping them a secret, therefore one is motivated to produce reasons for that secrecy.
Consider reasoning differently. Assume the more likely scenario: we have not been visited by aliens. Then, ask yourself, if we were visited by aliens, *would* our gov'ts have more motivation to keep it a secret, or to announce it? Throw out *all* the motivated reasoning you already have that tells you that there are all these reasons to keep it a secret because you assume it's already a secret (such as that it will cause mass hysteria or gov't instability or whatever) and really consider what the likely course of action would be. I think we would tell the world. I think the US would be so proud that aliens came to see us first, and I think politically it would be a fantastic win for any President to be the one who began diplomatic relations with extra terrestrials, and to be the one who brought incredible and transformative technological and scientific innovations. Can you imagine breaking in to prime time TV to announce alien contact? Show me a chief of staff that wouldn't literally kill to get that moment. Handled well that's a guaranteed second term if not a chance to remove term limits. From this perspective the fact that we haven't heard anything serves not to reinforce that they are here with us, but that they have not come around at all.
posted by dis_integration at 2:47 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
It feels like there's also some kind of fallacy there where one assumes that a government wouldn't release info on the rationale that it would cause government instability or whatever because one lives under a mostly functional government.
posted by LionIndex at 2:52 PM on July 19, 2023
posted by LionIndex at 2:52 PM on July 19, 2023
I agree with the others above that the alien aspect of this is a bit of a derail from the broader interesting question of examining an increasing and likely to continue to increase rate of not-immediately-identifiable objects. I'm totally on board with them all being explainable by known physical phenomenon and thus have an interest in funding efforts to do so as well as releasing that information so that the public in general can benefit from what would likely be further understanding of cameras, optics and various detection systems. I've learned a ton from explanations of UAP.
If it's not a misinterpretation of data, then the next most likely thing would be some unknown technology developed by an outside military and I also have zero issue with funding efforts to look into that. Handy info to have. This is exactly why 'high level military' people are interested in this and one great way to tell it's not actually the aliens is because those same high level military people don't have a plan for and openly reject the concept of a response plan to alien attack. They think it might be China, that's it.
As for why they mention non-human intelligence, they have to include it. They are specifically investigating stuff that seems like it is moving with a purpose and as unlikely as it is that is a possibility. In the event we do find aliens, it'd be pretty freaking stupid if the bill written about looking into those things didn't include it as a possible outcome that needs definition. Bills include language about all sorts of stuff that is extraordinarily unlikely but possible, there is some bonkers stuff in early GMO regulations (the area of legislation I happen to have some background in) because they were trying to predict where a new branch of science would and could go.
As for the political leaders who express belief in aliens (which, I haven't actually heard or seen that, just the implication that it's worth investigating which again, it is for purely military reasons), Donald Trump was recently president. I shouldn't have to say more. Literally couldn't matter less to me.
Also Skinwalker in the context the show uses is so very shitty that I'd be surprised that it didn't get more push-back except I know native concerns are marginalized here. It's not a slur, but holy crap is naming your fake UFO ranch (sorry, but it is.) TV show after something the people who actually care about it prefer not to talk about really at all some real serious bullshit.
posted by neonrev at 5:39 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
If it's not a misinterpretation of data, then the next most likely thing would be some unknown technology developed by an outside military and I also have zero issue with funding efforts to look into that. Handy info to have. This is exactly why 'high level military' people are interested in this and one great way to tell it's not actually the aliens is because those same high level military people don't have a plan for and openly reject the concept of a response plan to alien attack. They think it might be China, that's it.
As for why they mention non-human intelligence, they have to include it. They are specifically investigating stuff that seems like it is moving with a purpose and as unlikely as it is that is a possibility. In the event we do find aliens, it'd be pretty freaking stupid if the bill written about looking into those things didn't include it as a possible outcome that needs definition. Bills include language about all sorts of stuff that is extraordinarily unlikely but possible, there is some bonkers stuff in early GMO regulations (the area of legislation I happen to have some background in) because they were trying to predict where a new branch of science would and could go.
As for the political leaders who express belief in aliens (which, I haven't actually heard or seen that, just the implication that it's worth investigating which again, it is for purely military reasons), Donald Trump was recently president. I shouldn't have to say more. Literally couldn't matter less to me.
Also Skinwalker in the context the show uses is so very shitty that I'd be surprised that it didn't get more push-back except I know native concerns are marginalized here. It's not a slur, but holy crap is naming your fake UFO ranch (sorry, but it is.) TV show after something the people who actually care about it prefer not to talk about really at all some real serious bullshit.
posted by neonrev at 5:39 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
inire I've been thinking about what you said about my degree of certainty and you're correct. I not only don't think it's aliens, I'm very close to 100% certain it isn't.
And I don't think the facts as we known them today do cast that certainty into doubt, but explaining why took me some thought.
I'll preface by saying that I would be absolutely fucking overjoyed to be wrong. Part of my skepticism might be overcorrection because I desperately want there to be non-human intelligence out there. Every day I wake up very mildly disappointed because alien life wasn't discovered while I was sleeping.
The problem is the tech.
Our conception of aliens and UFO's and starships comes out of the early 20th century SF writers, and they were seeing such things through the lens of the technology of their day. They often imagined that building space ships would be relatively simple, that "ship" was a valid metaphor for an interstellar transport system, and they all understated the power requirements involved in star travel by many orders of magnitude.
If we assume that aliens are visiting Earth via conventional physics that implies a tech base that is as far beyond ours as we are beyond people in the stone ages.
That presents two problems that I think are insurmountable for imagining that UAP's are actually alien vehicles: they'd be both too easy to detect and impossible to detect.
An interstellar vehicle operating on real physics would need to burn very very bright and very very hot during its long acceleration down from 2% of c to our solar orbital velocity. It'd stand out like a new comet and last for weeks if not months. We haven't seen that.
But once they're here the second problem comes into play. If they can build interstellar vehicles then they are flat out guaranteed to be so far superior to us in engineering and physics that if they wanted to hide we'd never see them. I cannot believe in a species that is simultaneously capable of building starships AND capable of trying and failing to hide their atmospheric vehicles once they're here.
Lights in the sky, radar anomalies, they cannot be alien spacecraft because either they wouldn't bother hiding and there'd be no debate because they're obviously here, or they'd hide so well that they wouldn't leave radar images or lights in the sky.
If we presume they have FTL of any sort at all the problem becomes so very much worse for the UAP's are aliens hypothesis. FTL of absolutely any sort at all implies technology that isn't just superior to ours but technology that is literally unthinkably superior to ours. Technology based on physical principles we can't even imagine, because we don't even know it exists.
If people with that sort of tech wanted to hide, they'd be hidden so completely that they wouldn't be leaving lights in the sky and weird ghost images on radar.
Which is why I think if the bill passes and there really is actual undisclosed info it'll be more of the same: weird lights in the sky and some freaky radar ghosts, no evidence of aliens.
And the sort of conspiracy thinking it requires to imagine an agency capable of hiding evidence of aliens, assuming there was any, seems dangerous to me. I'm not saying people who believe in UFO's are bad people, but I am saying that people who do shit like Skinwalker Ranch and other UFO hype stuff are. Maybe not intentionally, but they are actively working to produce a society built around paranoid delusions and a belief that reality is a matter of opinion. That's not good for us as individuals, as a nation, or as a species.
So I'm in favor of fewer government secrets, very much in favor. But the motive behind this very narrow decision to release some tiny fraction of our government's secrets is a motive that scares me.
posted by sotonohito at 6:20 PM on July 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
And I don't think the facts as we known them today do cast that certainty into doubt, but explaining why took me some thought.
I'll preface by saying that I would be absolutely fucking overjoyed to be wrong. Part of my skepticism might be overcorrection because I desperately want there to be non-human intelligence out there. Every day I wake up very mildly disappointed because alien life wasn't discovered while I was sleeping.
The problem is the tech.
Our conception of aliens and UFO's and starships comes out of the early 20th century SF writers, and they were seeing such things through the lens of the technology of their day. They often imagined that building space ships would be relatively simple, that "ship" was a valid metaphor for an interstellar transport system, and they all understated the power requirements involved in star travel by many orders of magnitude.
If we assume that aliens are visiting Earth via conventional physics that implies a tech base that is as far beyond ours as we are beyond people in the stone ages.
That presents two problems that I think are insurmountable for imagining that UAP's are actually alien vehicles: they'd be both too easy to detect and impossible to detect.
An interstellar vehicle operating on real physics would need to burn very very bright and very very hot during its long acceleration down from 2% of c to our solar orbital velocity. It'd stand out like a new comet and last for weeks if not months. We haven't seen that.
But once they're here the second problem comes into play. If they can build interstellar vehicles then they are flat out guaranteed to be so far superior to us in engineering and physics that if they wanted to hide we'd never see them. I cannot believe in a species that is simultaneously capable of building starships AND capable of trying and failing to hide their atmospheric vehicles once they're here.
Lights in the sky, radar anomalies, they cannot be alien spacecraft because either they wouldn't bother hiding and there'd be no debate because they're obviously here, or they'd hide so well that they wouldn't leave radar images or lights in the sky.
If we presume they have FTL of any sort at all the problem becomes so very much worse for the UAP's are aliens hypothesis. FTL of absolutely any sort at all implies technology that isn't just superior to ours but technology that is literally unthinkably superior to ours. Technology based on physical principles we can't even imagine, because we don't even know it exists.
If people with that sort of tech wanted to hide, they'd be hidden so completely that they wouldn't be leaving lights in the sky and weird ghost images on radar.
Which is why I think if the bill passes and there really is actual undisclosed info it'll be more of the same: weird lights in the sky and some freaky radar ghosts, no evidence of aliens.
And the sort of conspiracy thinking it requires to imagine an agency capable of hiding evidence of aliens, assuming there was any, seems dangerous to me. I'm not saying people who believe in UFO's are bad people, but I am saying that people who do shit like Skinwalker Ranch and other UFO hype stuff are. Maybe not intentionally, but they are actively working to produce a society built around paranoid delusions and a belief that reality is a matter of opinion. That's not good for us as individuals, as a nation, or as a species.
So I'm in favor of fewer government secrets, very much in favor. But the motive behind this very narrow decision to release some tiny fraction of our government's secrets is a motive that scares me.
posted by sotonohito at 6:20 PM on July 19, 2023 [14 favorites]
I will absorb the hate and let my weird hang out here.
I believe that there is another ginormously intelligent civilization living in the oceans of this planet for the water. I think that water is a capable sci-fi fuel that we can't understand.
If we humans could hide the atom bomb's development from other humans I don't know why there couldn't be a hidden them if they are hiding places we can't go without imploding in dumbassery and hubris.
I feel and think that we are june bugs and crickets on a galactic gas station. And I think our awareness of them is as realized as a cockroach's awareness of this website.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 6:46 PM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
I believe that there is another ginormously intelligent civilization living in the oceans of this planet for the water. I think that water is a capable sci-fi fuel that we can't understand.
If we humans could hide the atom bomb's development from other humans I don't know why there couldn't be a hidden them if they are hiding places we can't go without imploding in dumbassery and hubris.
I feel and think that we are june bugs and crickets on a galactic gas station. And I think our awareness of them is as realized as a cockroach's awareness of this website.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 6:46 PM on July 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Lights in the sky, radar anomalies, they cannot be alien spacecraft because either they wouldn't bother hiding and there'd be no debate because they're obviously here, or they'd hide so well that they wouldn't leave radar images or lights in the sky.
Counterpoint: teasers
In response to the finger-wagging claim that I've been showing too much confidence in all of the currently disclosed UAP "evidence" boiling down to assorted misinterpretations of the mundane: pptthhhthbllt.
This whole situation is just fucking ludicrous. We've seen exactly this kind of mass delusion before. There's nothing new in it this time around. Positing "non human intelligence" as a credible alternative to the well documented human capacity for self-deception is the worst kind of wishful thinking. And seriously suggesting that "reality" TV has any useful contribution to make deserves no more than a horse laugh.
Non-human intelligences from "another dimension"? Please.
We live in a culture saturated with influences designed to shut down critical thinking and cultivate marks ripe for the plucking. There is nothing non-human about the intelligences behind the advertising, PR, tobacco, fossil fuel, or armaments industries, more's the pity, even though they all operate from a totally inhumane moral dimension.
That there are people inside the military-industrial complex who have themselves had their critical thinking ability damaged by the very influences to which their industries owe their ongoing existence should come as no surprise.
posted by flabdablet at 6:58 PM on July 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
Counterpoint: teasers
In response to the finger-wagging claim that I've been showing too much confidence in all of the currently disclosed UAP "evidence" boiling down to assorted misinterpretations of the mundane: pptthhhthbllt.
This whole situation is just fucking ludicrous. We've seen exactly this kind of mass delusion before. There's nothing new in it this time around. Positing "non human intelligence" as a credible alternative to the well documented human capacity for self-deception is the worst kind of wishful thinking. And seriously suggesting that "reality" TV has any useful contribution to make deserves no more than a horse laugh.
Non-human intelligences from "another dimension"? Please.
We live in a culture saturated with influences designed to shut down critical thinking and cultivate marks ripe for the plucking. There is nothing non-human about the intelligences behind the advertising, PR, tobacco, fossil fuel, or armaments industries, more's the pity, even though they all operate from a totally inhumane moral dimension.
That there are people inside the military-industrial complex who have themselves had their critical thinking ability damaged by the very influences to which their industries owe their ongoing existence should come as no surprise.
posted by flabdablet at 6:58 PM on July 19, 2023 [10 favorites]
you get the point.
posted by inire
Point taken.
I, at least, am not in the camp that says don't even look. Of course the weird stuff must be checked out adequately. At the very least we need to find out if known earthly adversaries have seriously advanced tech.
But, to be honest, I find even that very implausible, for the simple reason that it is not just one tech they would need to be highly advanced in to produce the reported behaviours, but several. Propulsion mechanisms, construction materials, protecting any biological entities abroad from the extreme g-forces such manoeuvres produce, ability to overcome mechanical effects of atmospheric resistance on ultra high speed travel through it, the basic fact of momentum alone is a very serious barrier even for even plausible ultra light weight human made materials, etc.
What are the chances of all that being fully solved in a short time frame (a couple of decades at most) by one nation, in secret, at this point in human history? Vanishingly small, I suggest. Not impossible, but damn close.
Also suggest that only one nation besides the USA (and possibly Japan) could even be considered for attaining such a level – China. And if they already had it, and nobody else did, they would have already taken Taiwan, and whatever else they wish to, as they would be able to completely neutralise all attempts to resist them.
So, weirdly, I kind of agree with you to the extent that if the necessary range of ultra advanced tech exists it is very unlikely to be of earthly origin.
Just have not seen any hard evidence yet that it does exist. So, for now, it isn't aliens.
posted by Pouteria at 7:36 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by inire
Point taken.
I, at least, am not in the camp that says don't even look. Of course the weird stuff must be checked out adequately. At the very least we need to find out if known earthly adversaries have seriously advanced tech.
But, to be honest, I find even that very implausible, for the simple reason that it is not just one tech they would need to be highly advanced in to produce the reported behaviours, but several. Propulsion mechanisms, construction materials, protecting any biological entities abroad from the extreme g-forces such manoeuvres produce, ability to overcome mechanical effects of atmospheric resistance on ultra high speed travel through it, the basic fact of momentum alone is a very serious barrier even for even plausible ultra light weight human made materials, etc.
What are the chances of all that being fully solved in a short time frame (a couple of decades at most) by one nation, in secret, at this point in human history? Vanishingly small, I suggest. Not impossible, but damn close.
Also suggest that only one nation besides the USA (and possibly Japan) could even be considered for attaining such a level – China. And if they already had it, and nobody else did, they would have already taken Taiwan, and whatever else they wish to, as they would be able to completely neutralise all attempts to resist them.
So, weirdly, I kind of agree with you to the extent that if the necessary range of ultra advanced tech exists it is very unlikely to be of earthly origin.
Just have not seen any hard evidence yet that it does exist. So, for now, it isn't aliens.
posted by Pouteria at 7:36 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
If we humans could hide the atom bomb's development from other humans I don't know why there couldn't be a hidden them if they are hiding places we can't go without imploding in dumbassery and hubris.
Counterpoint, Approximately 1,500 secrets involving the Manhattan Project were leaked during its building phase. It wasn’t until 2014 when the full Manhattan District History (Volume 14 on Intelligence and Security) was posted online by the Department of Energy that these ”leaks” were released to the public.
The Cleveland Press published a year and a half before they were deployed that Los Alamos, Oppenheimer, & hundreds of scientists were building unique explosives. Kodak was clued in because they detected the radioisotopes in their film factories downwind. It was so widespread that the only reason it didn't hit larger press was a directive telling newspaper, radio, & magazine editors about "Production or utilization of atom smashing, atomic energy, atomic fission, atomic splitting, or any of their equivalents." as voluntary patriotic secrecy.
Religious sermons were occasionally investigated over the years, such as when a Lutheran minister declared to his flock that, "One of the developments in the field of science today is a new source of energy called uranium-235. But regardless of the power of uranium 235 or other energy which science may discover, it will never be powerful enough to comfort us in affliction or strengthen us in despair. We must search out the Lord for those things."
Or to borrow from nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein:
posted by CrystalDave at 8:25 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
Counterpoint, Approximately 1,500 secrets involving the Manhattan Project were leaked during its building phase. It wasn’t until 2014 when the full Manhattan District History (Volume 14 on Intelligence and Security) was posted online by the Department of Energy that these ”leaks” were released to the public.
The Cleveland Press published a year and a half before they were deployed that Los Alamos, Oppenheimer, & hundreds of scientists were building unique explosives. Kodak was clued in because they detected the radioisotopes in their film factories downwind. It was so widespread that the only reason it didn't hit larger press was a directive telling newspaper, radio, & magazine editors about "Production or utilization of atom smashing, atomic energy, atomic fission, atomic splitting, or any of their equivalents." as voluntary patriotic secrecy.
Religious sermons were occasionally investigated over the years, such as when a Lutheran minister declared to his flock that, "One of the developments in the field of science today is a new source of energy called uranium-235. But regardless of the power of uranium 235 or other energy which science may discover, it will never be powerful enough to comfort us in affliction or strengthen us in despair. We must search out the Lord for those things."
Or to borrow from nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein:
Did the Axis powers notice this? If they did, they don’t seem to have done much with it. Which highlights an important aspect of Manhattan Project secrecy, in a way: how lucky it was. There were a tremendous number of puzzle pieces out there for an enemy power to notice and put together regarding the bomb effort. It was not quite so perfectly secret as we often talk of it as being. We know it was possible to put some of the pieces together, because the Soviets did it, and even a few others did it.Even the project most pointed to as the best-kept secret of the modern era wasn't able to keep it secret from the public or adversaries.
posted by CrystalDave at 8:25 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
This reminds me of the Vietnam POW/MIA stuff that was big back in the 1980s and 1990s. The network of witnesses who would claim to have evidence that turned out to amount to “I heard thing from a guy”. Never any hard evidence being brought to light. A hard core group of people who want to believe keeping the story going. Hollywood cashing in with movies like Rambo 2. Members of Congress being willing to give the conspiracy theory credence if it gets them airtime; but being careful not to overcommit
posted by interogative mood at 8:28 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:28 PM on July 19, 2023 [11 favorites]
Counterpoint
The counterpoint to your counterpoint is the first several paragraphs of the post with governments, news agencies, and plain old people busting the secret of the aliens.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 9:03 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
The counterpoint to your counterpoint is the first several paragraphs of the post with governments, news agencies, and plain old people busting the secret of the aliens.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 9:03 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oh really? What are the deets?
posted by Artw at 9:49 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 9:49 PM on July 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
> all of the fucking congresspeople are legitimately, absurdly, unhingedly obsessed with this UFO shit to the total disregard of everything else
Knowing something about Congress and its members, and similar people in local and state office, I can totally believe this comment. I mean, it's not a sober, measured over-arching intelligence estimate of the beliefs of all members of Congress at all times and all places. But as one congressional staff member's expression of frustration with his/her own boss and a bunch of boss's member-of-Congress friends and buddies* - oh, yeah.
Despite our cynicism about elected officials, somehow we still like to grant them slightly god-like powers. They are smarter than the rest of us, at least a little, or how would they have gotten elected? And they obviously have a lot of access to high quality inside information that we don't. I mean, obviously. So who's not to trust?
But the true fact is, members of Congress live their lives in a very specific type of low-information environment. They are totally in a cocoon, they meet very specific types of people and hear very specific types of information, and don't hear others. But most of all, they are looked upon to make final decisions in literally thousands of disparate areas of knowledge - so many that literally no one could possibly be an expert in any but a very, very few of them. So on the remaining 99.99% of topics they are pretty much complete blank slates.
They will reflect the full spectrum of beliefs on those topics we might see anywhere out there in the population of America they are pulled from. And (again from personal experience) they'll represent pretty much the full spectrum of intelligence, education, and all the rest. I mean - the FULL spectrum, like all the way from smartest to dumbest. From most open minded about things to most closed minded. Etc etc etc.
All of these areas where they are expected to make decisions and "be leaders" are ones of high political interest to someone out there, so they don't remain blank slates for long. Instead, they are spoon fed information and viewpoints from those with the most to gain or lose on the basis of this information.
So they have a lot of information about everything - too much information, really - but it is all extraordinarily biased, highly selected by motivated actors, and incomplete information.
(If you are wondering why lobbyists can be so extraordinarily influential, you've just found out why. The best lobbyists have the trust of influential elected officials, or their staff etc, and whisper in their ears just what they need to know at just the time they need to know it in order to make a crucial vote or support/oppose legislation. The power they have comes not from what they are telling the elected officials, but rather from the fact that they are trusted.)
So someone comes in an testifies about all this stuff, in a top-secret classified hearing, completely closed to the public (special, closed-door information - must be more true than usual!), by someone with a high security clearance (must be more trustworthy than average!) and a serviceman (trustworthy to the nth power now!).
You see how it goes - this is literally their decision-making tree.
The guy might be a complete dunderhead, completely unqualified to make judgements about the information he's presenting, and only knows second- and third-hand information that he has misunderstood in a bunch of important ways.
But he wears a uniform, he speaks confidently, he can answer every question without hesitation, and so on and on. So . . . completely believable!
Then what happens is, someone wants to open up secret programs because they believe daylight is the best infectant, another is worried about the current level of analysis because the people seem a bit incompetent and there might be actual enemy activity out there somewhere that is being swept under the rug, someone else is worried about excessive spending on secret programs that don't seem to be giving many results, another is concerned about intercommunication among various siloed areas of the military - and then a bunch of people are all agaga about the undeniable evidence they've seen (in top secret hearings no less!) about aliens and little green men from outer space.
(If anything is true about Congress, it's that they share all the same biases and beliefs and blind spots and all the rest, as the people who voted them into office. If 41% of Americans believe in UFOs then you can bet your darn tootin' that at least 41% of members of Congress also believe.)
Well a majority is a majority and no one really cares WHY you are joining the majority. So all these people - those concerned about military technology, readiness, enemy incursions, wasteful spending, etc etc etc, AND ufo true believers get together and join in support of this legislation, and of course it is written to make sure all its constituents are happy and have the things in the bill that they want.
This is like SUCH an ordinary everyday bit of the legislative sausage-making that it is kind of painful that we even have to outline it in such detail.
Anyway, the fact that bill X mentions non-human intelligence or whatever other term you like absolutely CAN NOT be taken as evidence that such things exist. Or that belief in or evidence for such things has change in any way at all either recently or at any time.
It can only be taken as evidence that there are indeed a certain number of UFO believers out there - including in Congress - and nobody is going to tell them no if they all want to pile on in support of a bill other people want for whatever other reasons.
Source: Last 25 years of working closely with elected officials and staff at all levels of government.
* One of the fairly recent revelations (to me) is the degree to which members of Congress, state legislatures, etc etc, tend to run in cliques - sort of like back in high school. It's really extraordinary. But for example, if you ask your Congressperson to co-sponsor a bill, their primary question won't be "what is this bill about" but "WHO is sponsoring and WHO are the other co-sponsors". If people in their crowd are going along, they probably will, too. If not - no way. And this VERY much cuts across, or at least through, party lines.
posted by flug at 12:29 AM on July 20, 2023 [21 favorites]
Knowing something about Congress and its members, and similar people in local and state office, I can totally believe this comment. I mean, it's not a sober, measured over-arching intelligence estimate of the beliefs of all members of Congress at all times and all places. But as one congressional staff member's expression of frustration with his/her own boss and a bunch of boss's member-of-Congress friends and buddies* - oh, yeah.
Despite our cynicism about elected officials, somehow we still like to grant them slightly god-like powers. They are smarter than the rest of us, at least a little, or how would they have gotten elected? And they obviously have a lot of access to high quality inside information that we don't. I mean, obviously. So who's not to trust?
But the true fact is, members of Congress live their lives in a very specific type of low-information environment. They are totally in a cocoon, they meet very specific types of people and hear very specific types of information, and don't hear others. But most of all, they are looked upon to make final decisions in literally thousands of disparate areas of knowledge - so many that literally no one could possibly be an expert in any but a very, very few of them. So on the remaining 99.99% of topics they are pretty much complete blank slates.
They will reflect the full spectrum of beliefs on those topics we might see anywhere out there in the population of America they are pulled from. And (again from personal experience) they'll represent pretty much the full spectrum of intelligence, education, and all the rest. I mean - the FULL spectrum, like all the way from smartest to dumbest. From most open minded about things to most closed minded. Etc etc etc.
All of these areas where they are expected to make decisions and "be leaders" are ones of high political interest to someone out there, so they don't remain blank slates for long. Instead, they are spoon fed information and viewpoints from those with the most to gain or lose on the basis of this information.
So they have a lot of information about everything - too much information, really - but it is all extraordinarily biased, highly selected by motivated actors, and incomplete information.
(If you are wondering why lobbyists can be so extraordinarily influential, you've just found out why. The best lobbyists have the trust of influential elected officials, or their staff etc, and whisper in their ears just what they need to know at just the time they need to know it in order to make a crucial vote or support/oppose legislation. The power they have comes not from what they are telling the elected officials, but rather from the fact that they are trusted.)
So someone comes in an testifies about all this stuff, in a top-secret classified hearing, completely closed to the public (special, closed-door information - must be more true than usual!), by someone with a high security clearance (must be more trustworthy than average!) and a serviceman (trustworthy to the nth power now!).
You see how it goes - this is literally their decision-making tree.
The guy might be a complete dunderhead, completely unqualified to make judgements about the information he's presenting, and only knows second- and third-hand information that he has misunderstood in a bunch of important ways.
But he wears a uniform, he speaks confidently, he can answer every question without hesitation, and so on and on. So . . . completely believable!
Then what happens is, someone wants to open up secret programs because they believe daylight is the best infectant, another is worried about the current level of analysis because the people seem a bit incompetent and there might be actual enemy activity out there somewhere that is being swept under the rug, someone else is worried about excessive spending on secret programs that don't seem to be giving many results, another is concerned about intercommunication among various siloed areas of the military - and then a bunch of people are all agaga about the undeniable evidence they've seen (in top secret hearings no less!) about aliens and little green men from outer space.
(If anything is true about Congress, it's that they share all the same biases and beliefs and blind spots and all the rest, as the people who voted them into office. If 41% of Americans believe in UFOs then you can bet your darn tootin' that at least 41% of members of Congress also believe.)
Well a majority is a majority and no one really cares WHY you are joining the majority. So all these people - those concerned about military technology, readiness, enemy incursions, wasteful spending, etc etc etc, AND ufo true believers get together and join in support of this legislation, and of course it is written to make sure all its constituents are happy and have the things in the bill that they want.
This is like SUCH an ordinary everyday bit of the legislative sausage-making that it is kind of painful that we even have to outline it in such detail.
Anyway, the fact that bill X mentions non-human intelligence or whatever other term you like absolutely CAN NOT be taken as evidence that such things exist. Or that belief in or evidence for such things has change in any way at all either recently or at any time.
It can only be taken as evidence that there are indeed a certain number of UFO believers out there - including in Congress - and nobody is going to tell them no if they all want to pile on in support of a bill other people want for whatever other reasons.
Source: Last 25 years of working closely with elected officials and staff at all levels of government.
* One of the fairly recent revelations (to me) is the degree to which members of Congress, state legislatures, etc etc, tend to run in cliques - sort of like back in high school. It's really extraordinary. But for example, if you ask your Congressperson to co-sponsor a bill, their primary question won't be "what is this bill about" but "WHO is sponsoring and WHO are the other co-sponsors". If people in their crowd are going along, they probably will, too. If not - no way. And this VERY much cuts across, or at least through, party lines.
posted by flug at 12:29 AM on July 20, 2023 [21 favorites]
> It can only be taken as evidence that there are indeed a certain number of UFO believers out there
But this is the basis by which we produce virtually all of our beliefs about the world? I personally don't understand the maths behind quantum physics, non have I run an experiment in a particle collider. But I take it as read that quantum theory is true because we have to place some trust in the existence of a number of experts who back a particular consensus worldview. Same with medicine, climate change, evolution, etc. Sometimes consensus shifts - that's OK, we can adapt. Just like humanity adapted to dealing with germ theory or man-made climate change or to ditch creationism. That's literally happening now. Like I said, I'm sympathetic, I understand why everyone feels so threatened by this and gets so emotional - it's an unprecedented epistemic disruption, a worldview realignment on a scale that none of us have personally lived through. But regardless, look at the signals around you - the level of discourse, the increase in knowledge we have about the phenomena, the type of people now involved, the institutional attention - this change is underway.
posted by iivix at 1:10 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
But this is the basis by which we produce virtually all of our beliefs about the world? I personally don't understand the maths behind quantum physics, non have I run an experiment in a particle collider. But I take it as read that quantum theory is true because we have to place some trust in the existence of a number of experts who back a particular consensus worldview. Same with medicine, climate change, evolution, etc. Sometimes consensus shifts - that's OK, we can adapt. Just like humanity adapted to dealing with germ theory or man-made climate change or to ditch creationism. That's literally happening now. Like I said, I'm sympathetic, I understand why everyone feels so threatened by this and gets so emotional - it's an unprecedented epistemic disruption, a worldview realignment on a scale that none of us have personally lived through. But regardless, look at the signals around you - the level of discourse, the increase in knowledge we have about the phenomena, the type of people now involved, the institutional attention - this change is underway.
posted by iivix at 1:10 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
FLUG!!! Thank you for that. I've been researching, interviewing and directing studies of the process of government for upwards of 40 years and your account rings true as cathedral bells - it smacks, tingles and zings with verisimilitude. It is the very picture of decision making I have seen time and time again in different agencies in different governments in various countries.
posted by dutchrick at 1:52 AM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by dutchrick at 1:52 AM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Iivix, bud, knock it off. We are not afraid of the aliens. Most of the people arguing with you have expressed repeatedly that we'd be fucking stoked to see real evidence.
Flug just explained at length why Congressional action should not be considered evidence and how extremely inexpert they likely all are in the actual field, which you ignored just like the previous times and just looped back to "everyone believes X so Y must be real."
I wish you much happiness while you wait for the aliens to be revealed. I fear you will wait a long time and hope you are able to adjust to the disappointment without much disruption.
posted by Scattercat at 3:19 AM on July 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
Flug just explained at length why Congressional action should not be considered evidence and how extremely inexpert they likely all are in the actual field, which you ignored just like the previous times and just looped back to "everyone believes X so Y must be real."
I wish you much happiness while you wait for the aliens to be revealed. I fear you will wait a long time and hope you are able to adjust to the disappointment without much disruption.
posted by Scattercat at 3:19 AM on July 20, 2023 [13 favorites]
"But regardless, look at the signals around you - the level of discourse, the increase in knowledge we have about the phenomena, the type of people now involved, the institutional attention - this change is underway."
Except - it really isn't? The consensus world-view of experts as you put it appears to be that UAPs are almost entirely examples of human error, but a few might be something weird but we don't have sufficient data to define. Other than a very small subset of the population who thinks the UAP are 'special'?
The consensus shifts with evidence and verification/replication of results - of which the only evidence is that UAPs which can be verified are effectively human error. With a small amount we've not got enough information for are - well, unknown.
This is probably where the 'Q-anon' type association comes from, not that 'q-anon' and 'uap believers' are the same people, or have the same beliefs or desires - but that they are a similar 'bubble' and echo-chamber?
Speaking for myself, I'm not 'threatened .. and .. emotional' but rather bemused.
The level of discourse is extremely low? (Can you link to anything not anecdotal?)
The increase of knowledge is negligible? (The increase in knowledge is that the vast majority of reported UAPs are people misidentifying balloons, planets and aircraft, with a tiny % not currently verified as being one of these - but that also means they're not verified as anything else either)
'The people and institutions involved' Just because King James VI thought the devil was real, doesn't make the devil real? That people elected into the US congress, or pilots, or scientists thinks that something is real, until there is enough evidence to shift that consensus it stays as a concept or hypothesis.
posted by Leud at 3:29 AM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Except - it really isn't? The consensus world-view of experts as you put it appears to be that UAPs are almost entirely examples of human error, but a few might be something weird but we don't have sufficient data to define. Other than a very small subset of the population who thinks the UAP are 'special'?
The consensus shifts with evidence and verification/replication of results - of which the only evidence is that UAPs which can be verified are effectively human error. With a small amount we've not got enough information for are - well, unknown.
This is probably where the 'Q-anon' type association comes from, not that 'q-anon' and 'uap believers' are the same people, or have the same beliefs or desires - but that they are a similar 'bubble' and echo-chamber?
Speaking for myself, I'm not 'threatened .. and .. emotional' but rather bemused.
The level of discourse is extremely low? (Can you link to anything not anecdotal?)
The increase of knowledge is negligible? (The increase in knowledge is that the vast majority of reported UAPs are people misidentifying balloons, planets and aircraft, with a tiny % not currently verified as being one of these - but that also means they're not verified as anything else either)
'The people and institutions involved' Just because King James VI thought the devil was real, doesn't make the devil real? That people elected into the US congress, or pilots, or scientists thinks that something is real, until there is enough evidence to shift that consensus it stays as a concept or hypothesis.
posted by Leud at 3:29 AM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Drones, ubiquitous surveillance, quickly improving image generation, a growing population. There will be more sightings.
Due to AI there's a chance this may be the last generation that will believe a sighting (of anything remotely exploitable, e.g. a new species, a cool bike trick, a UAP) without a good distribution of competing manufacturers and competing cultural affiliations in the multiple cameras observing an event.
posted by tychotesla at 3:32 AM on July 20, 2023
Due to AI there's a chance this may be the last generation that will believe a sighting (of anything remotely exploitable, e.g. a new species, a cool bike trick, a UAP) without a good distribution of competing manufacturers and competing cultural affiliations in the multiple cameras observing an event.
posted by tychotesla at 3:32 AM on July 20, 2023
The next sequel to Alien Autopsy gonna be a humdinger, for sure. The already shit-flooded zone has seen nothing compared to the fake bullshit that is coming.
I'm more worried about fakes showing a member of a denigrated group committing a heinous crime and setting off mob violence than I am fake UFO vids though. In the end, space weirdos are a relatively benign cadre.
posted by Scattercat at 3:43 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm more worried about fakes showing a member of a denigrated group committing a heinous crime and setting off mob violence than I am fake UFO vids though. In the end, space weirdos are a relatively benign cadre.
posted by Scattercat at 3:43 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
I recently got into UFO Community Watching after getting depressed by Graham Hancock and the unknowningly racist and ignorant Ancient Advanced Civilization (AKA Ancient Aliens) believers. UCW depresses a little differently: it shares problems with epistemology, has a pronounced lack of ability to spatially visualize, but can be more educated. It also undermines actual rational discussion of UAP/UFOs, which is particularly sad because the UFO community seems to have more casuals who are ignorant but have a feel for epistemology vs. the Ancient Aliens communities.
The novelty of UCW has mostly worn out, though it was fun watching the Corridor Crew fake some footage. I'm waiting to watch and learn from how people adapt after the upcoming hearing before moving on to something else.
For me one of the most indicative things of the "believers" in these communities is the theatrical contempt people express for Mick West ("Noted Tony Hawk developer"), which as far as I can tell is because his best videos very clearly and ably demonstrate what's going on (see, e.g. the gimbal video) in a way that really undermines the assumption that authority figures definitely know more than, say, "noted Tony Hawk developers". That's unacceptable, therefore people seem to have learned to preemptively dismiss him.
posted by tychotesla at 3:57 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
The novelty of UCW has mostly worn out, though it was fun watching the Corridor Crew fake some footage. I'm waiting to watch and learn from how people adapt after the upcoming hearing before moving on to something else.
For me one of the most indicative things of the "believers" in these communities is the theatrical contempt people express for Mick West ("Noted Tony Hawk developer"), which as far as I can tell is because his best videos very clearly and ably demonstrate what's going on (see, e.g. the gimbal video) in a way that really undermines the assumption that authority figures definitely know more than, say, "noted Tony Hawk developers". That's unacceptable, therefore people seem to have learned to preemptively dismiss him.
posted by tychotesla at 3:57 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 "Gimbal" UAP
posted by Rhaomi
The vertical u-turn in that reconstruction is interesting.
No idea if the reconstruction is correct, or what the explanation is either way. But it is interesting on the face of it.
Besides that the rest of gimbal image features don't seem of much significance to me. I think Mick West explains them well enough. Basically artefacts of our own technology, and fevered imaginations.
posted by Pouteria at 4:05 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Rhaomi
The vertical u-turn in that reconstruction is interesting.
No idea if the reconstruction is correct, or what the explanation is either way. But it is interesting on the face of it.
Besides that the rest of gimbal image features don't seem of much significance to me. I think Mick West explains them well enough. Basically artefacts of our own technology, and fevered imaginations.
posted by Pouteria at 4:05 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
presumably biden (given the language and context of the draft act)Um, slow down, partner -- Biden no more than Trump can declassify every thing. Consider the following.
The one person in the world who has every legal and moral right and every bit of authority necessary to declassify all of this without a single letter of this amendment hitting paper if he were so inclined?
Document No. 19 is marked "FRD," or Formerly Restricted Data, a classification given to secret information involving the military use of nuclear weapons. The indictment described it as undated and “concerning nuclear weaponry of the United States.”Trump lacked power to declassify secret nuclear arms document, experts say
Trump, who pleaded not guilty on Tuesday, has said he declassified while still in office the more than 100 secret documents he took to his Florida resort home, Mar-a-Lago, a contention echoed by Republican lawmakers and other supporters.
Aftergood and other experts said that the Atomic Energy Act (AEA) of 1954 - under which the Department of Energy oversees the U.S. nuclear arsenal - defines a process for declassifying nuclear weapons data, some of the U.S. government’s most closely guarded secret.
The statute is very clear. There’s nothing that says the president can make that decision,” said a former U.S. national security official familiar with the classification system, who asked to remain anonymous.
For all the fragments regarding the nuclear program that got leaked out, there is no way in hell Biden can declassify everything regarding UAPs simply because they have always been intertwined with nuclear weapons. For instance:
Declassified US Government Documents on the UFO Nuclear Weapons Connection
I have no canid in this altercation but... Biden can't wave a magic wand regarding nukes than Trump could and UAPs are intertwined with nukes enough to make declassification regarding them a rather dicey proposition in my humble opinion.
posted by y2karl at 4:12 AM on July 20, 2023
The Gimbal Video simulated and explained.
posted by interogative mood at 4:22 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 4:22 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. That's really what it boils down to, skeptics.
Yet some of you are *SOOOOO* sure that it couldn't be that aliens really are Real and on/near Earth. Case closed, slammed shut, and padlocked. No need to examine any other evidence. Several of you sounded to me like you admit absolutely *zero* possibility that you could be wrong.
The truth is that the Universe you grew up in is a lot more complex than you know.
Look, the aliens are wily. They have made themselves known in certain ways at certain times only to certain people. It just so happens that the credibility of a lot of reporters of alien encounters just *happen* to get trashed. It's almost like it could be intentional...
They are slow-dripping disclosure for Reasons. There are many, many trial balloons that are floated. There are *many* pieces of evidence (or alleged-evidence, whatever you prefer to call it), including eyewitness reports, as well as extensive data collection and vetting by talented and ethical truth-seekers who specialize in these topics.
Yet some of you are so silly as to completely discredit *ALL* UFO/UAP investigators because one possibly-shitty dude has a ranch with a definitely-shitty name and does some schlocky stuff. So you have been successfully veered from ever digging deeper into the evidence.
Some of you seem to have gotten so het up over a cultural sensitivity issue that you now naturally *assume* that every single other person on Earth who studies the same topics must therefore be full of shit. It's like the existence of one charlatan is enough to make you not only disbelieve, but experience distaste to such a level that you will never consider the evidence of any other reporter. Isn't that stunning?
Someone in the thread expressed an idea to the effect of: If aliens are Real, either we'd have Full Incontrovertible Disclosure by now, or zero evidence, zero reports, and zero rumors of their existence.
Do you really think Beings who have technology far advanced beyond humans would necessarily be so simplistic? Like this black-or-white thinking is quite silly to me. A sophisticated set of Beings would want to be *careful* about introducing themselves, probably in order to reduce harm if they are of the benign flavor.
Don't you think a lot of humans would *FREAK THE FUCK OUT* if Full Incontrovertible Disclosure happened tomorrow? There would be chaos, mayhem, violence, and a LOT of sudden problems that didn't exist the day before. It. Is. Not. Wise.
So they are doing the gradual approach.
Also, they have Reality-Weirding technology so they can fuzz any evidence they want and force people to not believe it. Humans are super-easy to fool, you guys.
How do I know all this? Aliens communicate with me, and they have been doing so for a year now. I have been working with them on a lot of Messages for humankind.
I have some evidence of this. The aliens hacked my phone.
Yeah, you can think I'm crazy, I'm used to it. Just please don't be unkind.
I will be coming out with a bunch of writings.
posted by cats are weird at 4:29 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Yet some of you are *SOOOOO* sure that it couldn't be that aliens really are Real and on/near Earth. Case closed, slammed shut, and padlocked. No need to examine any other evidence. Several of you sounded to me like you admit absolutely *zero* possibility that you could be wrong.
The truth is that the Universe you grew up in is a lot more complex than you know.
Look, the aliens are wily. They have made themselves known in certain ways at certain times only to certain people. It just so happens that the credibility of a lot of reporters of alien encounters just *happen* to get trashed. It's almost like it could be intentional...
They are slow-dripping disclosure for Reasons. There are many, many trial balloons that are floated. There are *many* pieces of evidence (or alleged-evidence, whatever you prefer to call it), including eyewitness reports, as well as extensive data collection and vetting by talented and ethical truth-seekers who specialize in these topics.
Yet some of you are so silly as to completely discredit *ALL* UFO/UAP investigators because one possibly-shitty dude has a ranch with a definitely-shitty name and does some schlocky stuff. So you have been successfully veered from ever digging deeper into the evidence.
Some of you seem to have gotten so het up over a cultural sensitivity issue that you now naturally *assume* that every single other person on Earth who studies the same topics must therefore be full of shit. It's like the existence of one charlatan is enough to make you not only disbelieve, but experience distaste to such a level that you will never consider the evidence of any other reporter. Isn't that stunning?
Someone in the thread expressed an idea to the effect of: If aliens are Real, either we'd have Full Incontrovertible Disclosure by now, or zero evidence, zero reports, and zero rumors of their existence.
Do you really think Beings who have technology far advanced beyond humans would necessarily be so simplistic? Like this black-or-white thinking is quite silly to me. A sophisticated set of Beings would want to be *careful* about introducing themselves, probably in order to reduce harm if they are of the benign flavor.
Don't you think a lot of humans would *FREAK THE FUCK OUT* if Full Incontrovertible Disclosure happened tomorrow? There would be chaos, mayhem, violence, and a LOT of sudden problems that didn't exist the day before. It. Is. Not. Wise.
So they are doing the gradual approach.
Also, they have Reality-Weirding technology so they can fuzz any evidence they want and force people to not believe it. Humans are super-easy to fool, you guys.
How do I know all this? Aliens communicate with me, and they have been doing so for a year now. I have been working with them on a lot of Messages for humankind.
I have some evidence of this. The aliens hacked my phone.
Yeah, you can think I'm crazy, I'm used to it. Just please don't be unkind.
I will be coming out with a bunch of writings.
posted by cats are weird at 4:29 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
I take it as read that quantum theory is true because we have to place some trust in the existence of a number of experts who back a particular consensus worldview. Same with medicine, climate change, evolution, etc.
With respect, you'd be better off evaluating the success of these things on the basis of considering just how much of what we rely on every day simply wouldn't be there if they were substantially wrong. Scientific consensus is a side effect of theory that works, not the other way around.
The reason I am so peeved about the whole Non Human Intelligence line of thought is that all of it operates as a distraction from the useful question. The question should not be "how do we account for the existence of objects that move in ways inconsistent with basic mechanics, thermodynamics and biology"; rather, it should be "what occasionally goes wrong with our sensing systems to make them present us with these anomalous results, and how do we improve them so they do that less often". Routinely referring to anomalous observations as anomalous phenomena grants them an ontological status that they simply don't deserve.
If there has indeed been a rise in the rate of reported observational anomalies that's out of scale with the total rate of technologically mediated observations being conducted, my working hypothesis - informed by a career in software development - would be that increasingly complex sensing tech comes with a wider range of obscure failure modes that are progressively less well understood by its designers, let alone its operators.
posted by flabdablet at 4:59 AM on July 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
With respect, you'd be better off evaluating the success of these things on the basis of considering just how much of what we rely on every day simply wouldn't be there if they were substantially wrong. Scientific consensus is a side effect of theory that works, not the other way around.
The reason I am so peeved about the whole Non Human Intelligence line of thought is that all of it operates as a distraction from the useful question. The question should not be "how do we account for the existence of objects that move in ways inconsistent with basic mechanics, thermodynamics and biology"; rather, it should be "what occasionally goes wrong with our sensing systems to make them present us with these anomalous results, and how do we improve them so they do that less often". Routinely referring to anomalous observations as anomalous phenomena grants them an ontological status that they simply don't deserve.
If there has indeed been a rise in the rate of reported observational anomalies that's out of scale with the total rate of technologically mediated observations being conducted, my working hypothesis - informed by a career in software development - would be that increasingly complex sensing tech comes with a wider range of obscure failure modes that are progressively less well understood by its designers, let alone its operators.
posted by flabdablet at 4:59 AM on July 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
Biden can't wave a magic wand regarding nukes than Trump could and UAPs are intertwined with nukes enough to make declassification regarding them a rather dicey proposition in my humble opinion.
It's not a magic wand - specifically Biden has to get Lloyd Austin and Jennifer Granholm to sign off on any of this that's marked FRD, that's the process. I don't think that's much of a barrier. It's probably easier than getting Mark Esper to sign off on getting nuclear secrets as reading material for the Mar-a-Lago bathroom, although I feel like Rick Perry would have signed that...
posted by jason_steakums at 5:05 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
It's not a magic wand - specifically Biden has to get Lloyd Austin and Jennifer Granholm to sign off on any of this that's marked FRD, that's the process. I don't think that's much of a barrier. It's probably easier than getting Mark Esper to sign off on getting nuclear secrets as reading material for the Mar-a-Lago bathroom, although I feel like Rick Perry would have signed that...
posted by jason_steakums at 5:05 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
If you believe we *have* been visited by aliens and that our gov'ts know about these visits, then it's easy to confabulate scenarios that explain why those gov'ts are keeping this fact a secret, since they obviously haven't announced these visitors from distant stars. Not having announced them, they must be keeping them a secret, therefore one is motivated to produce reasons for that secrecy.
Consider reasoning differently. Assume the more likely scenario: we have not been visited by aliens. Then, ask yourself, if we were visited by aliens, *would* our gov'ts have more motivation to keep it a secret, or to announce it? Throw out *all* the motivated reasoning you already have that tells you that there are all these reasons to keep it a secret because you assume it's already a secret (such as that it will cause mass hysteria or gov't instability or whatever) and really consider what the likely course of action would be. I think we would tell the world.
just to be clear, and to repeat what i said some way up the thread, i don’t believe we have in fact been visited by aliens and that one or more governments know about these visits. i see that as one of many possible explanations for the limited set of facts we’re aware of. the scenarios presented are not me attempting to reconcile my belief that governments hold evidence of aliens with the lack of prior disclosure of such evidence, because i don’t hold such a belief. these scenarios are hypothetical explanations, offered at another user’s request, for why governments might choose not to disclose any evidence that they did hold.
i agree that there could also be hypothetical reasons to disclose, which – if any governments held such evidence – would be weighed up against reasons not to. in both cases, the nature and weighting of those reasons would depend very heavily on context – for example, your point about the benefits of disclosure wouldn’t apply if, say, the evidence held by the government demonstrated that the aliens were treating us as livestock and abducting people to drain their precious bodily fluids. to my mind, the level of context dependency here makes it difficult to draw any high-confidence conclusion from the fact that there has been no prior governmental disclosure.
posted by inire at 5:07 AM on July 20, 2023
Consider reasoning differently. Assume the more likely scenario: we have not been visited by aliens. Then, ask yourself, if we were visited by aliens, *would* our gov'ts have more motivation to keep it a secret, or to announce it? Throw out *all* the motivated reasoning you already have that tells you that there are all these reasons to keep it a secret because you assume it's already a secret (such as that it will cause mass hysteria or gov't instability or whatever) and really consider what the likely course of action would be. I think we would tell the world.
just to be clear, and to repeat what i said some way up the thread, i don’t believe we have in fact been visited by aliens and that one or more governments know about these visits. i see that as one of many possible explanations for the limited set of facts we’re aware of. the scenarios presented are not me attempting to reconcile my belief that governments hold evidence of aliens with the lack of prior disclosure of such evidence, because i don’t hold such a belief. these scenarios are hypothetical explanations, offered at another user’s request, for why governments might choose not to disclose any evidence that they did hold.
i agree that there could also be hypothetical reasons to disclose, which – if any governments held such evidence – would be weighed up against reasons not to. in both cases, the nature and weighting of those reasons would depend very heavily on context – for example, your point about the benefits of disclosure wouldn’t apply if, say, the evidence held by the government demonstrated that the aliens were treating us as livestock and abducting people to drain their precious bodily fluids. to my mind, the level of context dependency here makes it difficult to draw any high-confidence conclusion from the fact that there has been no prior governmental disclosure.
posted by inire at 5:07 AM on July 20, 2023
Here’s where I fall off the logic train - why assume it’s very specifically aliens causing these inexplicable events as opposed to, say, fairies, or humans from another dimension?
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:13 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:13 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
why assume it’s very specifically aliens causing these inexplicable events as opposed to, say, fairies, or humans from another dimension?
i suppose the idea of aliens might be slightly more plausible than those alternatives insofar as there is good reason to think intelligent life exists somewhere else in the universe, whereas there is less reason to think fairies or trans-dimensional beings exist.
but i think it's more just a legacy of the fact that popular discussion of uaps has for a long time focused on whether or not they're aliens, so the discussion now is taking place in that context and it's the first non-mundane explanation people focus on. i know jacques vallee and other uap types have addressed non-alien non-mundane possibilities, so those arguments are certainly out there - just less prominent and popular.
posted by inire at 5:22 AM on July 20, 2023
i suppose the idea of aliens might be slightly more plausible than those alternatives insofar as there is good reason to think intelligent life exists somewhere else in the universe, whereas there is less reason to think fairies or trans-dimensional beings exist.
but i think it's more just a legacy of the fact that popular discussion of uaps has for a long time focused on whether or not they're aliens, so the discussion now is taking place in that context and it's the first non-mundane explanation people focus on. i know jacques vallee and other uap types have addressed non-alien non-mundane possibilities, so those arguments are certainly out there - just less prominent and popular.
posted by inire at 5:22 AM on July 20, 2023
I'd really really appreciate an explanation, from anybody who believes they can attach some plausible meaning to the phrase "from another dimension", to explain to me what work the word "dimension" is doing in that phrase.
I've never been able to make anything of it beyond "from another inexplicable", which makes it nothing more than a rhetorical move, a pseudo-explanation that obscures more than enlightens.
posted by flabdablet at 5:26 AM on July 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
I've never been able to make anything of it beyond "from another inexplicable", which makes it nothing more than a rhetorical move, a pseudo-explanation that obscures more than enlightens.
posted by flabdablet at 5:26 AM on July 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
Flug just explained at length why Congressional action should not be considered evidence and how extremely inexpert they likely all are in the actual field
i agree congressional action isn’t evidence that aliens exist. what it is evidence of is a material shift in the views and priorities of some portion of congress, as demonstrated by the fact that there have been uap allegations and purported evidence of various kinds publicised for decades that have not previously resulted in the level of congressional action we’re now seeing.
that might suggest that the allegations and supposed evidence now being provided to congress are much the same as what’s previously been provided / publicised, but there has been a change in the views and priorities in congress, meaning greater willingness to take action on the basis of those allegations. as flug says, this could be because there’s been an external lobbying push for uaps to be taken more seriously, or because there are increased concerns about china, or congressional believers are in more influential positions, etc. etc.
alternatively, it might suggest that the allegations and evidence now being provided to congress are different from what has previously been provided, whether in terms of their specifics, the level of detail, number and credibility of apparently corroborating witnesses and materials, etc., and that's helping to drive the change in attitude.
it’s difficult to know how much weight to give to either of these possibilities at present, given the relative lack of information, but that may become a bit clearer as things progress.
posted by inire at 5:30 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
i agree congressional action isn’t evidence that aliens exist. what it is evidence of is a material shift in the views and priorities of some portion of congress, as demonstrated by the fact that there have been uap allegations and purported evidence of various kinds publicised for decades that have not previously resulted in the level of congressional action we’re now seeing.
that might suggest that the allegations and supposed evidence now being provided to congress are much the same as what’s previously been provided / publicised, but there has been a change in the views and priorities in congress, meaning greater willingness to take action on the basis of those allegations. as flug says, this could be because there’s been an external lobbying push for uaps to be taken more seriously, or because there are increased concerns about china, or congressional believers are in more influential positions, etc. etc.
alternatively, it might suggest that the allegations and evidence now being provided to congress are different from what has previously been provided, whether in terms of their specifics, the level of detail, number and credibility of apparently corroborating witnesses and materials, etc., and that's helping to drive the change in attitude.
it’s difficult to know how much weight to give to either of these possibilities at present, given the relative lack of information, but that may become a bit clearer as things progress.
posted by inire at 5:30 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
> Here’s where I fall off the logic train - why assume it’s very specifically aliens causing these inexplicable events as opposed to, say, fairies, or humans from another dimension?
Fairies are also fine with me. I think the nature of this phenomenon is inherently elusive and ambiguous, and contains plenty of contradictions and anomalous reports. I like the complex, varied, and high strangeness takes on things, as per Jacques Vallée's classic Passport to Magonia: On UFOs, Folklore, and Parallel Worlds.
posted by iivix at 5:38 AM on July 20, 2023
Fairies are also fine with me. I think the nature of this phenomenon is inherently elusive and ambiguous, and contains plenty of contradictions and anomalous reports. I like the complex, varied, and high strangeness takes on things, as per Jacques Vallée's classic Passport to Magonia: On UFOs, Folklore, and Parallel Worlds.
posted by iivix at 5:38 AM on July 20, 2023
I'd really really appreciate an explanation, from anybody who believes they can attach some plausible meaning to the phrase "from another dimension", to explain to me what work the word "dimension" is doing in that phrase.
I've never been able to make anything of it beyond "from another inexplicable", which makes it nothing more than a rhetorical move, a pseudo-explanation that obscures more than enlightens.
as far as i can tell, uses of that phrase tend to either be talking about something falling into the parallel universe / multiverse / many worlds interpretation bucket, or about different dimensions of this universe (e.g.). i don't doubt that some people also use it in the way you refer to, but others do use it to refer to concepts that have been theorised by actual physicists (albeit with varying degrees of plausibility, obviously).
posted by inire at 5:39 AM on July 20, 2023
I've never been able to make anything of it beyond "from another inexplicable", which makes it nothing more than a rhetorical move, a pseudo-explanation that obscures more than enlightens.
as far as i can tell, uses of that phrase tend to either be talking about something falling into the parallel universe / multiverse / many worlds interpretation bucket, or about different dimensions of this universe (e.g.). i don't doubt that some people also use it in the way you refer to, but others do use it to refer to concepts that have been theorised by actual physicists (albeit with varying degrees of plausibility, obviously).
posted by inire at 5:39 AM on July 20, 2023
> to explain to me what work the word "dimension" is doing in that phrase
I also think to laypeople, it also just means that there things that are co-located here on Earth, but usually weakly interacting with normal stuff (hence invisible), that manifest themselves more concretely at various points before going back to this state. I don't know, it's a question we haven't even begun to be able to answer, where do UAPs go when they disappear - do they travel elsewhere in the universe via portal ("worm hole") or super speed ("warp drive"), move to a different world in the multiverse, or just make themselves invisible without going anywhere much?
posted by iivix at 5:47 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
I also think to laypeople, it also just means that there things that are co-located here on Earth, but usually weakly interacting with normal stuff (hence invisible), that manifest themselves more concretely at various points before going back to this state. I don't know, it's a question we haven't even begun to be able to answer, where do UAPs go when they disappear - do they travel elsewhere in the universe via portal ("worm hole") or super speed ("warp drive"), move to a different world in the multiverse, or just make themselves invisible without going anywhere much?
posted by iivix at 5:47 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've never been able to make anything of it beyond "from another inexplicable", which makes it nothing more than a rhetorical move, a pseudo-explanation that obscures more than enlightens.
“It’s ghost s and elves” theory functionally pretty much identical to “it’s aliens!” TBH.
posted by Artw at 6:01 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
“It’s ghost s and elves” theory functionally pretty much identical to “it’s aliens!” TBH.
posted by Artw at 6:01 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
things that are co-located here on Earth, but usually weakly interacting with normal stuff (hence invisible), that manifest themselves more concretely at various points before going back to this state.
OK, so if I posit a Sea Of Errors from which these things emerge and to which they return once no longer observed, then am I in some way using the word "sea" more than metaphorically? How do we feel about ascribing some kind of object permanence to the denizens of the Sea Of Errors? Could we, for example, make a stab at estimating a population growth rate for Parallax Ducks in order to predict how many are likely to pop out into our world in any given moment?
posted by flabdablet at 6:10 AM on July 20, 2023
OK, so if I posit a Sea Of Errors from which these things emerge and to which they return once no longer observed, then am I in some way using the word "sea" more than metaphorically? How do we feel about ascribing some kind of object permanence to the denizens of the Sea Of Errors? Could we, for example, make a stab at estimating a population growth rate for Parallax Ducks in order to predict how many are likely to pop out into our world in any given moment?
posted by flabdablet at 6:10 AM on July 20, 2023
or about different dimensions of this universe (e.g.)
The description of higher dimensions in the linked article there is nothing like I've ever seen it explained as part of string theory and makes a ton of leaps into this whole multiversal thing with weird specificity, that really seems to be describing a sci-fi idea of extra dimensions more than a scientific one
posted by jason_steakums at 6:14 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
The description of higher dimensions in the linked article there is nothing like I've ever seen it explained as part of string theory and makes a ton of leaps into this whole multiversal thing with weird specificity, that really seems to be describing a sci-fi idea of extra dimensions more than a scientific one
posted by jason_steakums at 6:14 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Mod note: Several more comments removed. If you can't comment without attacking or presuming to know the mind of fellow community members, either specifically or generally, please move onto to a different thread or you will be invited to do so.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:20 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:20 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Rep. Tim Burchett to hold press conference before congressional hearing on UFOs
Heavily suggests a conclusion ahead of time, which is Tim Burchett is going to parade up all the people who have seen FLIR blobs that are most impressed by them and scold the pentagon for not spending more attention on FLIR blobs, which are totally an important thing with heavy emphasis on “probably aliens”, and there will be a lot of fuss about how this is a conspiracy and not people wanting to do a bunch out of admin on something that isn’t actionable.
There will be some extra footage of FLIR blobs selectively presented in a way that makes people who get excited by FLIR blobs excited.
There will not be evidence of ultraterrestrials/aliens/gnomes etc.
posted by Artw at 6:43 AM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Heavily suggests a conclusion ahead of time, which is Tim Burchett is going to parade up all the people who have seen FLIR blobs that are most impressed by them and scold the pentagon for not spending more attention on FLIR blobs, which are totally an important thing with heavy emphasis on “probably aliens”, and there will be a lot of fuss about how this is a conspiracy and not people wanting to do a bunch out of admin on something that isn’t actionable.
There will be some extra footage of FLIR blobs selectively presented in a way that makes people who get excited by FLIR blobs excited.
There will not be evidence of ultraterrestrials/aliens/gnomes etc.
posted by Artw at 6:43 AM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Yeah, this is absolutely a true believer who has a little show planned.
posted by Artw at 6:49 AM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:49 AM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
I should probably add “something gets war thundered” to the bingo card as well.
posted by Artw at 6:54 AM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:54 AM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
The description of higher dimensions in the linked article there is nothing like I've ever seen it explained as part of string theory and makes a ton of leaps into this whole multiversal thing with weird specificity, that really seems to be describing a sci-fi idea of extra dimensions more than a scientific one
very happy to read any other explanations of theories involving higher dimensions that you find more palatable, there are plenty out there (slightly more detailed e.g.). i linked the original because it was short, basic and touched on the way conceptions of higher dimensions and parallel universes can be conflated - no doubt there are better or more accurate summaries available.
my broader point in linking it is that higher dimensions have been theorised by actual physicists (in the context of extremely speculative theories that as far as i know do not yet have experimental support), and it is that theorising that some uap believers have in mind when they talk about nhis being 'from another dimension'. no doubt many of them then go on to make various claims that would require even more speculative expansions to that theorising, or that misunderstand or are incompatible with it, but the point (per flabdablet's question) is that a reference to nhis 'from another dimension' is not merely a rhetorical move, i.e., a statement that refers to no real world concept outside the sphere of uap belief.
posted by inire at 7:31 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
very happy to read any other explanations of theories involving higher dimensions that you find more palatable, there are plenty out there (slightly more detailed e.g.). i linked the original because it was short, basic and touched on the way conceptions of higher dimensions and parallel universes can be conflated - no doubt there are better or more accurate summaries available.
my broader point in linking it is that higher dimensions have been theorised by actual physicists (in the context of extremely speculative theories that as far as i know do not yet have experimental support), and it is that theorising that some uap believers have in mind when they talk about nhis being 'from another dimension'. no doubt many of them then go on to make various claims that would require even more speculative expansions to that theorising, or that misunderstand or are incompatible with it, but the point (per flabdablet's question) is that a reference to nhis 'from another dimension' is not merely a rhetorical move, i.e., a statement that refers to no real world concept outside the sphere of uap belief.
posted by inire at 7:31 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
I mean, time travel is possible under some theories of physics. Doesn't mean it's most parsimonious to believe that everything I don't understand is in fact evidence of time travel, or to leap to concluding that time travel is more likely than observation error.
That's the gap I, personally, am seeing here - a refusal to look at likelihoods, and instead an obsession with hypothetical possibilities that are for whatever reason appealing, regardless of near-infinite implausibility. I have a hard time seeing what the fact that some physicists have imagined some things has to do with the actual evidence that exists, other than a constant retreat into "you can't prove it's not magic" as evidence.
posted by sagc at 7:38 AM on July 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
That's the gap I, personally, am seeing here - a refusal to look at likelihoods, and instead an obsession with hypothetical possibilities that are for whatever reason appealing, regardless of near-infinite implausibility. I have a hard time seeing what the fact that some physicists have imagined some things has to do with the actual evidence that exists, other than a constant retreat into "you can't prove it's not magic" as evidence.
posted by sagc at 7:38 AM on July 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
Tim Burchett is going to parade up all the people who have seen FLIR blobs that are most impressed by them and scold the pentagon for not spending more attention on FLIR blobs
There will not be evidence of ultraterrestrials/aliens/gnomes etc.
grusch will apparently be there, so we'll at least have the additional pleasure of hearing from a lot of body language experts about how he 'looks like he's lying'. (i thought i read the other two would be fravor and graves, so you'll get your flir blobs!)
i expect the house hearing will be somewhere on the spectrum between a non-event and a shitshow. non-event, because it isn't going to involve the presentation of any classified evidence and i'd expect grusch will be saying essentially the same things he's said publicly in other media. shitshow, because it's being run by burchett and luna. senate / icig developments and any outcomes from the draft legislation will potentially be more interesting, but i imagine that won't be for a while.
posted by inire at 7:42 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
There will not be evidence of ultraterrestrials/aliens/gnomes etc.
grusch will apparently be there, so we'll at least have the additional pleasure of hearing from a lot of body language experts about how he 'looks like he's lying'. (i thought i read the other two would be fravor and graves, so you'll get your flir blobs!)
i expect the house hearing will be somewhere on the spectrum between a non-event and a shitshow. non-event, because it isn't going to involve the presentation of any classified evidence and i'd expect grusch will be saying essentially the same things he's said publicly in other media. shitshow, because it's being run by burchett and luna. senate / icig developments and any outcomes from the draft legislation will potentially be more interesting, but i imagine that won't be for a while.
posted by inire at 7:42 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
Grusch just repeats whatever unsubstantiated alien gossip he’s heard, we’re just going to get whatever was big on reality TV six months ago.
David Fravor and Ryan Graves do appear to be veterans of the FLIR blob promotional scene so we will get the usual there.
I would suggest NOT having a separate FPP for it, given this one is already a parade of misinformation and hype. Barring any dramatic turn of events I’d probably suggest not having any further FPPs on UAVs at all on the basis of this one as we just end up boosting garbage.
posted by Artw at 7:59 AM on July 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
David Fravor and Ryan Graves do appear to be veterans of the FLIR blob promotional scene so we will get the usual there.
I would suggest NOT having a separate FPP for it, given this one is already a parade of misinformation and hype. Barring any dramatic turn of events I’d probably suggest not having any further FPPs on UAVs at all on the basis of this one as we just end up boosting garbage.
posted by Artw at 7:59 AM on July 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
That 'slightly more detailed' article is from 2012; and notes this:
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:03 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
On 4 July this year the ATLAS and CMS collaborations at CERN announced that they had discovered a new particle with a mass of around 125 GeV, which most likely is the famous Higgs particle. If it is the Higgs, then the characteristic size of the extra dimension needs to be smaller than about 1.8 × 10–18 m – about a thousandth of the proton radius.It was indeed the Higgs.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:03 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
jason_steakums: There is absolutely no reason to think that it's more likely that physics as we know it is more guidelines than rules, fun as that may be, than to think that whatever this evidence may be it's either going to fall apart on closer inspection or is a whole lot more mundane than the hype.
sagc: I mean, time travel is possible under some theories of physics. Doesn't mean it's most parsimonious to believe that everything I don't understand is in fact evidence of time travel, or to leap to concluding that time travel is more likely than observation error.
these are both true as bald statements, but are mischaracterisations if intended to refer to anything i’ve said above. i agree there is no reason to think that explanations for this situation involving violations of known physics are more likely to be true than more mundane explanations, or to believe that things we don’t understand must be evidence of physics violations. we have nothing like the kind of evidence we’d need to draw that conclusion. however, we also lack the evidence we would need to say that physics as we understand it cannot be violated by things currently outside our sphere of knowledge, because we are well aware that our understanding of physics is not complete.
the fact that an explanation would violate known physics makes it less plausible, not impossible. how much less plausible that makes the explanation depends on the nature of the explanation.
if it’s an explanation dealing with things that are within our sphere of knowledge, that we have a lot of detail about, any posited physics violation is going to be wildly implausible because of the amount and weight of evidence to the contrary. say, if i posit that ducks can fly because their pinion feathers have anti-gravity properties – every part of the explanation other than the anti-gravity relates to things we know a lot about, we have excellent evidence as to why ducks can fly and as to the applicability of known physics to everything within our sphere of knowledge, and excellent evidence that duck pinion feathers behave normally with respect to gravity, therefore physics-violating anti-gravity feathers are incredibly implausible (i generally reserve ‘impossible’ for things that are strictly conceptually impossible, like square circles).
if it’s an explanation dealing with things that are outside our sphere of knowledge, that we have little to no detail about, and that are explicitly hypothesised to have a more advanced understanding of physics than we do, a posited physics violation could make that explanation slightly less plausible, but on what basis could it make it so implausible as to be ruled out, given the limits to our knowledge and available information?
to go back to an earlier example, the atomic bomb would have violated ibn al-haytham’s understanding of the world. he might, if asked, have said that such a thing was impossible, or at least wildly implausible. and yet if we scooped up the manhattan project and the necessary materials and chucked them through a time portal, they’d have been perfectly capable (in principle) of creating the bomb in 11th century egypt. the problem would lie in the limits of al-haytham’s understanding, not in the apparent implausibility (in his eyes) of such a weapon. certainly, we’ve come a long way since his time, but if you think our understanding of physics is near-complete and there’s just some minor tidying-up to be done, leaving no room for interstellar aliens with sufficiently advanced tech that we would see as basically magic, i would be excited to see the evidence for that.
posted by inire at 8:17 AM on July 20, 2023
sagc: I mean, time travel is possible under some theories of physics. Doesn't mean it's most parsimonious to believe that everything I don't understand is in fact evidence of time travel, or to leap to concluding that time travel is more likely than observation error.
these are both true as bald statements, but are mischaracterisations if intended to refer to anything i’ve said above. i agree there is no reason to think that explanations for this situation involving violations of known physics are more likely to be true than more mundane explanations, or to believe that things we don’t understand must be evidence of physics violations. we have nothing like the kind of evidence we’d need to draw that conclusion. however, we also lack the evidence we would need to say that physics as we understand it cannot be violated by things currently outside our sphere of knowledge, because we are well aware that our understanding of physics is not complete.
the fact that an explanation would violate known physics makes it less plausible, not impossible. how much less plausible that makes the explanation depends on the nature of the explanation.
if it’s an explanation dealing with things that are within our sphere of knowledge, that we have a lot of detail about, any posited physics violation is going to be wildly implausible because of the amount and weight of evidence to the contrary. say, if i posit that ducks can fly because their pinion feathers have anti-gravity properties – every part of the explanation other than the anti-gravity relates to things we know a lot about, we have excellent evidence as to why ducks can fly and as to the applicability of known physics to everything within our sphere of knowledge, and excellent evidence that duck pinion feathers behave normally with respect to gravity, therefore physics-violating anti-gravity feathers are incredibly implausible (i generally reserve ‘impossible’ for things that are strictly conceptually impossible, like square circles).
if it’s an explanation dealing with things that are outside our sphere of knowledge, that we have little to no detail about, and that are explicitly hypothesised to have a more advanced understanding of physics than we do, a posited physics violation could make that explanation slightly less plausible, but on what basis could it make it so implausible as to be ruled out, given the limits to our knowledge and available information?
to go back to an earlier example, the atomic bomb would have violated ibn al-haytham’s understanding of the world. he might, if asked, have said that such a thing was impossible, or at least wildly implausible. and yet if we scooped up the manhattan project and the necessary materials and chucked them through a time portal, they’d have been perfectly capable (in principle) of creating the bomb in 11th century egypt. the problem would lie in the limits of al-haytham’s understanding, not in the apparent implausibility (in his eyes) of such a weapon. certainly, we’ve come a long way since his time, but if you think our understanding of physics is near-complete and there’s just some minor tidying-up to be done, leaving no room for interstellar aliens with sufficiently advanced tech that we would see as basically magic, i would be excited to see the evidence for that.
posted by inire at 8:17 AM on July 20, 2023
Ummm...my post thanking Rahomi for this post seems to have been removed, I have no idea why, but thank you again, Rahomi! I've really enjoyed this thread.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:20 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:20 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
inire you are correct that it works be foolish to think our technology of the universe is perfect.
But why do you think aliens with sufficiently advanced technology who want to hide but are extremely bad at hiding is MORE plausible than sensor glitches or other mundane explanations?
posted by sotonohito at 8:33 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
But why do you think aliens with sufficiently advanced technology who want to hide but are extremely bad at hiding is MORE plausible than sensor glitches or other mundane explanations?
posted by sotonohito at 8:33 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Rep. Tim Burchett trivia: his previous job was mayor of Knox County, Tennessee (a bigger deal than it sounds like, there are about a half-million people in that county).
His successor in that role is Glenn Jacobs, a man better known as Kane.
(He's an anti-vax crook, and he's hinting about running for governor in 2026.)
posted by box at 8:35 AM on July 20, 2023
His successor in that role is Glenn Jacobs, a man better known as Kane.
(He's an anti-vax crook, and he's hinting about running for governor in 2026.)
posted by box at 8:35 AM on July 20, 2023
But why do you think aliens with sufficiently advanced technology who want to hide but are extremely bad at hiding is MORE plausible than sensor glitches or other mundane explanations?
aaaaaagh
sotonohito, my esteemed fellow mefite, i do not think that. i have at no point said i think that. i have pointed out several times that this is a specific thing i do not think. admittedly i have made a lot of posts in a very long thread, but you’re killing me here.
posted by inire at 8:51 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
aaaaaagh
sotonohito, my esteemed fellow mefite, i do not think that. i have at no point said i think that. i have pointed out several times that this is a specific thing i do not think. admittedly i have made a lot of posts in a very long thread, but you’re killing me here.
posted by inire at 8:51 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
Rep. Tim Burchett trivia
Their reaction to school shootings seems particularly monstrous, on the other hand they are a Republican and they are all inhuman monsters to some extent on that. Still, strikes me that there’s an irony that someone could have the profound lack of imagination required to say things like there isn’t a "real role" for Congress in reducing gun violence, other than to "mess things up", but also put himself at the center of an exciting mystery story where he gets to lead congress in uncovering the UFO technology he says has been being reversed engineered by the government since the 40s.
(For those insistent that this shares no common ground with QANON - the words “deep state” haven’t quite been used yet, but we are basically there with it)
posted by Artw at 8:56 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Their reaction to school shootings seems particularly monstrous, on the other hand they are a Republican and they are all inhuman monsters to some extent on that. Still, strikes me that there’s an irony that someone could have the profound lack of imagination required to say things like there isn’t a "real role" for Congress in reducing gun violence, other than to "mess things up", but also put himself at the center of an exciting mystery story where he gets to lead congress in uncovering the UFO technology he says has been being reversed engineered by the government since the 40s.
(For those insistent that this shares no common ground with QANON - the words “deep state” haven’t quite been used yet, but we are basically there with it)
posted by Artw at 8:56 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
I’d probably suggest not having any further FPPs on UAVs
I'd suggest a moratorium until the alien consulate opens in Geneva.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 8:58 AM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
I'd suggest a moratorium until the alien consulate opens in Geneva.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 8:58 AM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
This is your periodic reminder that the principle of parsimony (or Occam's razor) is a heuristic for developing theoretical models, not a criteria for evaluating or choosing between competing models. In other words, t's not true that the "simplest" (whatever that may mean) explanation is more likely to be correct than any other.
posted by signal at 9:43 AM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by signal at 9:43 AM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
flabdablet: "I'd really really appreciate an explanation, from anybody who believes they can attach some plausible meaning to the phrase "from another dimension", to explain to me what work the word "dimension" is doing in that phrase.
I've never been able to make anything of it beyond "from another inexplicable", which makes it nothing more than a rhetorical move, a pseudo-explanation that obscures more than enlightens."
I've always taken it to mean a higher spatial dimension, an idea popularized by Flatland and frequently referenced in science fiction. It's also a feature in more speculative scientific theories like brane cosmology, large extra dimensions, etc. So not necessarily woo, although it conveniently enables phenomena like physical objects changing shape and vanishing into thin air or extra-dimensional beings spying on us from inches away without being detectable. (For a great SF treatment of this, check out John Varley's short story "In Fading Suns and Dying Moons".)
tiny frying pan: "Ummm...my post thanking Rahomi for this post seems to have been removed, I have no idea why, but thank you again, Rahomi! I've really enjoyed this thread."
Clear MIB interference at work!
posted by Rhaomi at 9:51 AM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
I've never been able to make anything of it beyond "from another inexplicable", which makes it nothing more than a rhetorical move, a pseudo-explanation that obscures more than enlightens."
I've always taken it to mean a higher spatial dimension, an idea popularized by Flatland and frequently referenced in science fiction. It's also a feature in more speculative scientific theories like brane cosmology, large extra dimensions, etc. So not necessarily woo, although it conveniently enables phenomena like physical objects changing shape and vanishing into thin air or extra-dimensional beings spying on us from inches away without being detectable. (For a great SF treatment of this, check out John Varley's short story "In Fading Suns and Dying Moons".)
tiny frying pan: "Ummm...my post thanking Rahomi for this post seems to have been removed, I have no idea why, but thank you again, Rahomi! I've really enjoyed this thread."
Clear MIB interference at work!
posted by Rhaomi at 9:51 AM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Let me get this out of the way first: I WANT TO BELIEVE.
Wait, no, I meant to say: I WANT TO LEAVE.
No, really, if some alien space craft lands in front of me and invites me to go with them and the vibe is good I'm getting on that craft and seeing what happens next.
I've also had a weird feeling for the last six months or so long before the topic of this post started making the news there might be something big related to the UAP/UFO phenomenon being revealed in this time frame that is big enough to radically change our global views about being alone in the universe.
I'm not presuming that these actions from Congress are it, but, man, the timeline is really on the nose for what I've been feeling and pondering.
posted by loquacious at 10:36 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Wait, no, I meant to say: I WANT TO LEAVE.
No, really, if some alien space craft lands in front of me and invites me to go with them and the vibe is good I'm getting on that craft and seeing what happens next.
I've also had a weird feeling for the last six months or so long before the topic of this post started making the news there might be something big related to the UAP/UFO phenomenon being revealed in this time frame that is big enough to radically change our global views about being alone in the universe.
I'm not presuming that these actions from Congress are it, but, man, the timeline is really on the nose for what I've been feeling and pondering.
posted by loquacious at 10:36 AM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
of course i would whinge about sotonohito not reading my comments and then find i'd missed one of their earlier responses to me.
If we assume that aliens are visiting Earth via conventional physics that implies a tech base that is as far beyond ours as we are beyond people in the stone ages.
That presents two problems that I think are insurmountable for imagining that UAP's are actually alien vehicles
these are insurmountable problems if and only if you accept the underlying assumptions, which i think are as follows:
- aliens are (currently or in recent times) arriving at earth by travelling interstellar distances
- they are travelling in vehicles that use kinds of propulsion we would easily notice (burning bright and hot, as you say)
- they want to hide from us, or – in the alternative – if they don’t want to hide from us, they and their vehicles would be easily detectable and identifiable as aliens
- if they’re competent enough to get here, they’re competent enough to not crash and want to not crash (not sure if this is one of your assumptions, but including it here as a bonus because it’s one often made by people taking a similar position to yours)
however, alternative assumptions are available. sticking with the scenario of aliens that developed elsewhere in our universe, rather than going off-piste into extra dimensions and such, some examples would be:
- aliens arrived on earth a long time ago, so no interstellar travel has occurred in the last few centuries, millennia, etc.
- alien vehicles use propulsion that is not easily noticeable (whether based on more advanced tech that still operates on human-understood physics, and / or based on a more advanced understanding of physics)
- they’re fine with a good-enough level of concealment
- they do not care at all about concealment, but the inherent qualities of their vehicles mean they’re difficult for us to spot
- maximum level of competence demonstrated via peak tech achievements does not necessarily apply across all instances of tech use – for example, we landed on the moon, but the challenger still blew up and cars crash all the time
- they don't really care about crashing, because they’re using drone vehicles, or they’re using piloted vehicles but they’re part of a hive mind and losing a pilot is like when i cut myself shaving
so i think it’s reasonably straightforward to come up with a hypothesis that does surmount the problems you laid out. as to how likely that hypothesis is to be true, i imagine the probability is quite low (given the number of potential alternatives), but given the lack of information your guess is as good as mine ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by inire at 10:56 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
If we assume that aliens are visiting Earth via conventional physics that implies a tech base that is as far beyond ours as we are beyond people in the stone ages.
That presents two problems that I think are insurmountable for imagining that UAP's are actually alien vehicles
these are insurmountable problems if and only if you accept the underlying assumptions, which i think are as follows:
- aliens are (currently or in recent times) arriving at earth by travelling interstellar distances
- they are travelling in vehicles that use kinds of propulsion we would easily notice (burning bright and hot, as you say)
- they want to hide from us, or – in the alternative – if they don’t want to hide from us, they and their vehicles would be easily detectable and identifiable as aliens
- if they’re competent enough to get here, they’re competent enough to not crash and want to not crash (not sure if this is one of your assumptions, but including it here as a bonus because it’s one often made by people taking a similar position to yours)
however, alternative assumptions are available. sticking with the scenario of aliens that developed elsewhere in our universe, rather than going off-piste into extra dimensions and such, some examples would be:
- aliens arrived on earth a long time ago, so no interstellar travel has occurred in the last few centuries, millennia, etc.
- alien vehicles use propulsion that is not easily noticeable (whether based on more advanced tech that still operates on human-understood physics, and / or based on a more advanced understanding of physics)
- they’re fine with a good-enough level of concealment
- they do not care at all about concealment, but the inherent qualities of their vehicles mean they’re difficult for us to spot
- maximum level of competence demonstrated via peak tech achievements does not necessarily apply across all instances of tech use – for example, we landed on the moon, but the challenger still blew up and cars crash all the time
- they don't really care about crashing, because they’re using drone vehicles, or they’re using piloted vehicles but they’re part of a hive mind and losing a pilot is like when i cut myself shaving
so i think it’s reasonably straightforward to come up with a hypothesis that does surmount the problems you laid out. as to how likely that hypothesis is to be true, i imagine the probability is quite low (given the number of potential alternatives), but given the lack of information your guess is as good as mine ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by inire at 10:56 AM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
of course i would whinge about sotonohito not reading my comments and then find i'd missed one of their earlier responses to me.
Genuinely this is why I stump for at least limited threading in comments, I think some of the inire/iivix mixups earlier happened too because of unthreaded comments being unthreaded comments
posted by jason_steakums at 11:28 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Genuinely this is why I stump for at least limited threading in comments, I think some of the inire/iivix mixups earlier happened too because of unthreaded comments being unthreaded comments
posted by jason_steakums at 11:28 AM on July 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
I still like Douglas Adams' offhand reference to The Hooloovoo as a "super intelligent shade of blue."
THE ALIENS HAVE BEEN RIGHT HERE WITH US IN THE BACKGROUND THE WHOLE TIME
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:36 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
THE ALIENS HAVE BEEN RIGHT HERE WITH US IN THE BACKGROUND THE WHOLE TIME
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:36 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
snuffleupagus: "I still like Douglas Adams' offhand reference to The Hooloovoo as a "super intelligent shade of blue.""
Or re: dimensions:
"Anyone who has been to any of the higher dimensions will know that they're a pretty nasty heathen lot up there who should just be smashed and done in, and would be, too, if anyone could work out a way of firing missiles at right-angles to reality."
posted by Rhaomi at 3:29 PM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Or re: dimensions:
"Anyone who has been to any of the higher dimensions will know that they're a pretty nasty heathen lot up there who should just be smashed and done in, and would be, too, if anyone could work out a way of firing missiles at right-angles to reality."
posted by Rhaomi at 3:29 PM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
I think our understanding of physics is a bit like Eratosthenes measuring the circumference of the earth 2200 years ago. There is missing geography on the globe, but he was within 3% of modern values. We won't find an alien perpetual motion machine. The world isn't going to actually be flat.
posted by interogative mood at 3:45 PM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:45 PM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Along similar lines, I think it's interesting that the speculation is always centered around intelligent life, including in unrecognizable forms like a shade of light.
But, what about unintelligent life? Could there not be some kind of energy being in the way of space krill or star amoeba that shimmy in and out of our detectable reality every so often?
The odds of unintelligent life must be relatively larger, and in a different enough form like that wouldn't have to come from a planet.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:50 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
But, what about unintelligent life? Could there not be some kind of energy being in the way of space krill or star amoeba that shimmy in and out of our detectable reality every so often?
The odds of unintelligent life must be relatively larger, and in a different enough form like that wouldn't have to come from a planet.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:50 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
I've always taken it to mean a higher spatial dimension
If four dimensions of space were better fitted to mapping reality than three, I would expect an inverse cube law to model gravitational and electromagnetic phenomena better than an inverse square law does.
Conversely, if the "extra" dimensions were all curled up like they need to be to make string theory work, so that spatial displacements along any of the unusual directions are limited to being many orders of magnitude smaller than the virtual radius of a proton, I would not expect anomalous entities of human-comparable scale to be able to hide far enough "off to the side" of the three spatial dimensions we generally use that only aviators ever spot them. Rather, I would expect the extra dimensions to have predictive or explanatory utility only at subatomic scales, if at all.
None of the above is in any way rigorous, of course; it's all handwaving. Point is that it's far less handwavey than simply invoking the "possibility" of extra dimensions as a pseudo-explanation for unexplained observations. I remain quite confident that almost all such pseudo-explanations function simply as thought-terminating clichés.
posted by flabdablet at 6:33 PM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
If four dimensions of space were better fitted to mapping reality than three, I would expect an inverse cube law to model gravitational and electromagnetic phenomena better than an inverse square law does.
Conversely, if the "extra" dimensions were all curled up like they need to be to make string theory work, so that spatial displacements along any of the unusual directions are limited to being many orders of magnitude smaller than the virtual radius of a proton, I would not expect anomalous entities of human-comparable scale to be able to hide far enough "off to the side" of the three spatial dimensions we generally use that only aviators ever spot them. Rather, I would expect the extra dimensions to have predictive or explanatory utility only at subatomic scales, if at all.
None of the above is in any way rigorous, of course; it's all handwaving. Point is that it's far less handwavey than simply invoking the "possibility" of extra dimensions as a pseudo-explanation for unexplained observations. I remain quite confident that almost all such pseudo-explanations function simply as thought-terminating clichés.
posted by flabdablet at 6:33 PM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
space krill or star amoeba
would seem more likely to be responsible for rumours about the military holding secret hoards of unidentifiable sludge than secret hoards of unidentifiable vehicle parts.
posted by flabdablet at 6:41 PM on July 20, 2023
would seem more likely to be responsible for rumours about the military holding secret hoards of unidentifiable sludge than secret hoards of unidentifiable vehicle parts.
posted by flabdablet at 6:41 PM on July 20, 2023
If there were more than three spatial dimensions then Fermat’s Last Theorem would be false. I’ve got an elegant proof of this but I can’t write it down browsing the web on my phone.
posted by interogative mood at 6:44 PM on July 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:44 PM on July 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
On the other hand, if there were more than three spatial dimensions then Fermat would obviously have had more than enough room in that margin to write the thing out.
posted by flabdablet at 6:53 PM on July 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 6:53 PM on July 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
Extraterrestrial 'technical surprise' is a top concern, Pentagon UFO investigator says
Distinct edge of "I would like to placate the crazies, but I would also like them to stop trying to make me look bad".
posted by Artw at 6:57 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Distinct edge of "I would like to placate the crazies, but I would also like them to stop trying to make me look bad".
posted by Artw at 6:57 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
I love how the fact that every person who pushes hard on "aliens are visiting Earth right now" is a disreputable charlatan or a slightly worrying kook is turned into proof that they are in fact correct via the alchemy of conspiratorial thinking. When lack of support transmutes into support in itself, there's a problem.
If every objection results in changing the goalposts - "Space is too big" becomes "They must have super amazing tech to overcome those problems," "We never find physical evidence" results in "They're just *that good*, or maybe they're from another dimension," "Every major figure is visibly unreliable/has major personality defects" countered by "They're all being smeared!" - then what you have is not a testable hypothesis.
I'm with loquacious in that I really wish supercompetent aliens were here. I'd get on the ship even if the vibe were full-on Yautja or Xenomorph. That would be so much cooler than what we have, which is a very cold, very empty universe that likely contains mostly different types of bacteria or equivalent, as far as living creatures go. But what we have is akin to what we get for most cryptids, which is lots of witness sightings but nothing concrete and no unambiguous physical traces. It's possible that the next gleaming thing I see in a crack in the sidewalk might be a wealthy heiress's diamond ring that she pays me ten million dollars for returning to her, but I'm not going to expect that to happen, nor will I get excited every time a bit of quartz in the concrete catches the light.
posted by Scattercat at 6:59 PM on July 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
If every objection results in changing the goalposts - "Space is too big" becomes "They must have super amazing tech to overcome those problems," "We never find physical evidence" results in "They're just *that good*, or maybe they're from another dimension," "Every major figure is visibly unreliable/has major personality defects" countered by "They're all being smeared!" - then what you have is not a testable hypothesis.
I'm with loquacious in that I really wish supercompetent aliens were here. I'd get on the ship even if the vibe were full-on Yautja or Xenomorph. That would be so much cooler than what we have, which is a very cold, very empty universe that likely contains mostly different types of bacteria or equivalent, as far as living creatures go. But what we have is akin to what we get for most cryptids, which is lots of witness sightings but nothing concrete and no unambiguous physical traces. It's possible that the next gleaming thing I see in a crack in the sidewalk might be a wealthy heiress's diamond ring that she pays me ten million dollars for returning to her, but I'm not going to expect that to happen, nor will I get excited every time a bit of quartz in the concrete catches the light.
posted by Scattercat at 6:59 PM on July 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
what we have is akin to what we get for most cryptids
Sasquatch Is My Pilot
posted by flabdablet at 7:36 PM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Sasquatch Is My Pilot
posted by flabdablet at 7:36 PM on July 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
space krill or star amoeba
Hear me out: Space Gelatinous Cube.
And it's absolutely massive, say several cubic AU or much more, capable of eating whole star systems.
And, most terrifyingly and ominously, somehow its still a giant, wobbling semi-transparent *cube* and doesn't collapse into a sphere, star or black hole.
posted by loquacious at 7:53 PM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Hear me out: Space Gelatinous Cube.
And it's absolutely massive, say several cubic AU or much more, capable of eating whole star systems.
And, most terrifyingly and ominously, somehow its still a giant, wobbling semi-transparent *cube* and doesn't collapse into a sphere, star or black hole.
posted by loquacious at 7:53 PM on July 20, 2023 [5 favorites]
Would you say the cube is........gleaming?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:20 PM on July 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Would you say the cube is........gleaming?
Don't be ridiculous. They don't even have gleaming cubes in 4th Edition.
posted by loquacious at 8:32 PM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
Don't be ridiculous. They don't even have gleaming cubes in 4th Edition.
posted by loquacious at 8:32 PM on July 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
they don't really care about crashing, because they’re using drone vehicles,
Drones are a fair assumption, because they don't need pilots and are just there to gather information. Any advanced civilization, say by a million years, would have put drones into space as a routine program of discovery. If we are seeing alien technology, it likely was the nearest drone, possibly thousands of years old and not threatening, except for what it could mean for future generations.
posted by Brian B. at 9:53 PM on July 20, 2023
Drones are a fair assumption, because they don't need pilots and are just there to gather information. Any advanced civilization, say by a million years, would have put drones into space as a routine program of discovery. If we are seeing alien technology, it likely was the nearest drone, possibly thousands of years old and not threatening, except for what it could mean for future generations.
posted by Brian B. at 9:53 PM on July 20, 2023
Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 "Gimbal" UAP
Related 30-page manuscript with supplemental data and sources
Published by atmospheric scientist Dr. Yannick Peings and former Defense analyst Marik von Rennenkampff for the AIAA AVIATION forum in San Diego last month.
Discussion of the above on Metabunk
posted by flabdablet at 11:15 PM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
Related 30-page manuscript with supplemental data and sources
Published by atmospheric scientist Dr. Yannick Peings and former Defense analyst Marik von Rennenkampff for the AIAA AVIATION forum in San Diego last month.
Discussion of the above on Metabunk
posted by flabdablet at 11:15 PM on July 20, 2023 [6 favorites]
If every objection results in changing the goalposts - "Space is too big" becomes "They must have super amazing tech to overcome those problems," "We never find physical evidence" results in "They're just *that good*, or maybe they're from another dimension," "Every major figure is visibly unreliable/has major personality defects" countered by "They're all being smeared!" - then what you have is not a testable hypothesis.
some of what you call 'changing the goalposts', i would call 'pointing out the holes in the objection' (and there are invariably holes, given the paucity of information). whatever you call it, the same dynamic can be seen working in the other direction as well, including in this thread.
i don't think that's a particular indictment of any side of the argument - it's what you would expect when you're talking about an outside context problem with almost none of the relevant information you'd need to draw firm conclusions about it.
re testable hypotheses, that lack of information can cut both ways. for example, a skeptic can propose that the vast majority of publicised uap sightings have mundane explanations. we don't often have much information about a given sighting, but we do have a lot of information about potential mundane explanations, so you have something to work with. the results of that analysis will provide pretty strong support for the original hypothesis.
if a skeptic proposes that all uap sightings - whether publicised or not - have mundane explanations (as i think they would need to in order to sustain a contention that aliens, nhis etc. aren't visiting), their attempts at testing that hypothesis will run into several issues:
- for a small percentage of publicised uap sightings, none of the known mundane explanations fit the available information.
- it is not known how many uap sightings are unpublicised, or what the characteristics of those sightings are.
- information about unpublicised uap sightings isn't generally available.
of course they could do what testing they can (re publicised sightings) and then attempt to extrapolate that to unpublicised sightings, but the extrapolation is based on further untestable hypotheses - e.g. that a similar percentage of unpublicised sightings fit mundane explanations, that the number of unpublicised sightings isn't substantially higher than the number publicised, that the characteristics of publicised / unpublicised sightings are similar, that there is no other unavailable information that would significantly affect the analysis. so realistically, the analysis is going to provide limited support at best for the original hypothesis, and will more likely be inconclusive.
roy mash wrote an article 30-odd years ago about seti, and the disagreements between those who believed that the search for intelligent aliens was worthwhile and those who thought otherwise. not precisely the same topic as this, but i think his tl;dr is apt: "In the end, the dispute between believers and skeptics is seen to boil down to a conflict of intuitions which can barely be engaged, let alone resolved, given our present state of knowledge."
posted by inire at 4:47 AM on July 21, 2023
some of what you call 'changing the goalposts', i would call 'pointing out the holes in the objection' (and there are invariably holes, given the paucity of information). whatever you call it, the same dynamic can be seen working in the other direction as well, including in this thread.
i don't think that's a particular indictment of any side of the argument - it's what you would expect when you're talking about an outside context problem with almost none of the relevant information you'd need to draw firm conclusions about it.
re testable hypotheses, that lack of information can cut both ways. for example, a skeptic can propose that the vast majority of publicised uap sightings have mundane explanations. we don't often have much information about a given sighting, but we do have a lot of information about potential mundane explanations, so you have something to work with. the results of that analysis will provide pretty strong support for the original hypothesis.
if a skeptic proposes that all uap sightings - whether publicised or not - have mundane explanations (as i think they would need to in order to sustain a contention that aliens, nhis etc. aren't visiting), their attempts at testing that hypothesis will run into several issues:
- for a small percentage of publicised uap sightings, none of the known mundane explanations fit the available information.
- it is not known how many uap sightings are unpublicised, or what the characteristics of those sightings are.
- information about unpublicised uap sightings isn't generally available.
of course they could do what testing they can (re publicised sightings) and then attempt to extrapolate that to unpublicised sightings, but the extrapolation is based on further untestable hypotheses - e.g. that a similar percentage of unpublicised sightings fit mundane explanations, that the number of unpublicised sightings isn't substantially higher than the number publicised, that the characteristics of publicised / unpublicised sightings are similar, that there is no other unavailable information that would significantly affect the analysis. so realistically, the analysis is going to provide limited support at best for the original hypothesis, and will more likely be inconclusive.
roy mash wrote an article 30-odd years ago about seti, and the disagreements between those who believed that the search for intelligent aliens was worthwhile and those who thought otherwise. not precisely the same topic as this, but i think his tl;dr is apt: "In the end, the dispute between believers and skeptics is seen to boil down to a conflict of intuitions which can barely be engaged, let alone resolved, given our present state of knowledge."
posted by inire at 4:47 AM on July 21, 2023
The essence of skepticism is to withhold belief without evidence.
I do not believe that we are regularly being visited by aliens / non-human intelligences from another dimension / fairies / whateverthefuck esoterica because I have seen no evidence that supports any such proposition to anything like a reasonable degree of probability.
Specifically, none of the UAP reports I have ever encountered constitute such evidence.
Given the sheer number of notorious UAP reports that, on close scrutiny, have turned out to be completely consistent with perfectly mundane phenomena, and given that all of those reports have at some stage been claimed by certain parties to be evidence of alien tech operating on this planet, and given the degree of confidence with which those parties have expressed those claims, and given that by and large it's the same parties now expressing the same kind of confidence that certain reports still mandate paranormal explanations even though completely reasonable mundane ones have been available for decades, and given the tendency of such parties to wilfully ignore and/or belittle the careful analytical work performed by genuine skeptics, and especially given its well documented high prevalence of hucksters and grifters, I think I'm completely justified in withholding a belief that the paranormal brigade has anything useful to tell me about the world I live in.
Specifically, I think they have nothing useful to tell me about those UAP reports for which no explanation is yet available.
I am not the slightest bit interested in resolving a conflict of intuitions between myself and people who take open-mindedness to the point of total cranial vacuity. I'd rather mock them for fun, partly because in that respect I am a bad person, but also partly to encourage people who do not wish to be mocked to get across the available research before spouting drivel they'll likely come to regret.
posted by flabdablet at 6:19 AM on July 21, 2023 [16 favorites]
I do not believe that we are regularly being visited by aliens / non-human intelligences from another dimension / fairies / whateverthefuck esoterica because I have seen no evidence that supports any such proposition to anything like a reasonable degree of probability.
Specifically, none of the UAP reports I have ever encountered constitute such evidence.
Given the sheer number of notorious UAP reports that, on close scrutiny, have turned out to be completely consistent with perfectly mundane phenomena, and given that all of those reports have at some stage been claimed by certain parties to be evidence of alien tech operating on this planet, and given the degree of confidence with which those parties have expressed those claims, and given that by and large it's the same parties now expressing the same kind of confidence that certain reports still mandate paranormal explanations even though completely reasonable mundane ones have been available for decades, and given the tendency of such parties to wilfully ignore and/or belittle the careful analytical work performed by genuine skeptics, and especially given its well documented high prevalence of hucksters and grifters, I think I'm completely justified in withholding a belief that the paranormal brigade has anything useful to tell me about the world I live in.
Specifically, I think they have nothing useful to tell me about those UAP reports for which no explanation is yet available.
I am not the slightest bit interested in resolving a conflict of intuitions between myself and people who take open-mindedness to the point of total cranial vacuity. I'd rather mock them for fun, partly because in that respect I am a bad person, but also partly to encourage people who do not wish to be mocked to get across the available research before spouting drivel they'll likely come to regret.
posted by flabdablet at 6:19 AM on July 21, 2023 [16 favorites]
inire, aren't you basically arguing for the existence of *all* supernatural phenomena? Ghosts? Christian saints doing miracles? Cryptids? Psychics? I feel like all of the arguments against those also run into the same alleged problems for skeptics.
posted by sagc at 7:26 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by sagc at 7:26 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
inire, aren't you basically arguing for the existence of *all* supernatural phenomena? Ghosts? Christian saints doing miracles? Cryptids? Psychics? I feel like all of the arguments against those also run into the same alleged problems for skeptics.
i'm not arguing for the existence of aliens on earth, or (by analogy) any of those other phenomena. i'm arguing that the justifiable attitude to the prospect of aliens on earth is not as it has been expressed at multiple points in this thread.
basically, there is a ‘strong’ skeptic position, which is essentially ‘the probability that aliens / nhis are visiting us is either zero or so close to zero as to be basically equivalent’. i don’t believe it’s possible to arrive at that conclusion in a way that is simultaneously reasoned, evidence-based, and high-confidence.
if you reason carefully from the available evidence, taking into account the amount of relevant information that isn’t available, you will not be able to have high confidence in that conclusion, because you lack so much relevant information.
if you do have high confidence in that conclusion, it is because you have at some point made a mistake in your reasoning and / or in relation to the available evidence.
at times, people give the impression that they’re taking the strong position above, but it becomes apparent that the position they’re actually taking is ‘given what we know or can justifiably infer with high confidence, the probability that aliens, etc. are visiting us is zero or near-zero’. i still think that somewhat overstates things – i would say current knowledge and inference justifies a probability that is low but not effectively zero – but it’s certainly a position that one can get much closer to via a reasoned, evidence-based and high-confidence route.
however, it’s also a position that is explicitly caveated by what we know or can justifiably be confident about, which is a tiny fraction of the information that would be necessary to arrive at the strong position. so it’s a reasonably arguable conclusion, as far as it goes, but it doesn’t go that far.
extending that to other supernatural phenomena, i think the position is (very broadly) similar in some cases and less so in others. i expect there are certain kinds of supernatural phenomena that are similar to my example above re the anti-gravity ducks - that is, we're talking about something that is fully within our sphere of knowledge, and about which we have a lot of well-supported evidence, except for a narrowly scoped 'supernatural' element. the strong skeptical position is much more justifiable in those cases.
in other cases, analogous to the atomic bomb example in the same linked post, where we're talking about something that would be largely outside our sphere of knowledge - for example, the existence of divine entities that communicate with certain humans or otherwise take an interest in human affairs - i think the strong skeptical position is difficult to sustain, and the caveated position is much more justifiable. of course, in ordinary life, both positions have the same output for all practical purposes - you treat the phenomena as not being real, and the distinction between the two positions is of no practical relevance.
so why i am specifically banging on about aliens / nhis in this thread, rather than supernatural / physics-violating phenomena in general? well, because the claims and allegations and ongoing congressional developments addressed in the links are about aliens / nhis, and in light of those developments the distinction between 'that's impossible' and 'that's highly unlikely' becomes much more salient. if schumer starts pushing for legislation to uncover what information the us government holds about angelic visitations, based on a similar context and set of claims, i'll bang on in a similar vein in that thread as well.
posted by inire at 7:49 AM on July 21, 2023
i'm not arguing for the existence of aliens on earth, or (by analogy) any of those other phenomena. i'm arguing that the justifiable attitude to the prospect of aliens on earth is not as it has been expressed at multiple points in this thread.
basically, there is a ‘strong’ skeptic position, which is essentially ‘the probability that aliens / nhis are visiting us is either zero or so close to zero as to be basically equivalent’. i don’t believe it’s possible to arrive at that conclusion in a way that is simultaneously reasoned, evidence-based, and high-confidence.
if you reason carefully from the available evidence, taking into account the amount of relevant information that isn’t available, you will not be able to have high confidence in that conclusion, because you lack so much relevant information.
if you do have high confidence in that conclusion, it is because you have at some point made a mistake in your reasoning and / or in relation to the available evidence.
at times, people give the impression that they’re taking the strong position above, but it becomes apparent that the position they’re actually taking is ‘given what we know or can justifiably infer with high confidence, the probability that aliens, etc. are visiting us is zero or near-zero’. i still think that somewhat overstates things – i would say current knowledge and inference justifies a probability that is low but not effectively zero – but it’s certainly a position that one can get much closer to via a reasoned, evidence-based and high-confidence route.
however, it’s also a position that is explicitly caveated by what we know or can justifiably be confident about, which is a tiny fraction of the information that would be necessary to arrive at the strong position. so it’s a reasonably arguable conclusion, as far as it goes, but it doesn’t go that far.
extending that to other supernatural phenomena, i think the position is (very broadly) similar in some cases and less so in others. i expect there are certain kinds of supernatural phenomena that are similar to my example above re the anti-gravity ducks - that is, we're talking about something that is fully within our sphere of knowledge, and about which we have a lot of well-supported evidence, except for a narrowly scoped 'supernatural' element. the strong skeptical position is much more justifiable in those cases.
in other cases, analogous to the atomic bomb example in the same linked post, where we're talking about something that would be largely outside our sphere of knowledge - for example, the existence of divine entities that communicate with certain humans or otherwise take an interest in human affairs - i think the strong skeptical position is difficult to sustain, and the caveated position is much more justifiable. of course, in ordinary life, both positions have the same output for all practical purposes - you treat the phenomena as not being real, and the distinction between the two positions is of no practical relevance.
so why i am specifically banging on about aliens / nhis in this thread, rather than supernatural / physics-violating phenomena in general? well, because the claims and allegations and ongoing congressional developments addressed in the links are about aliens / nhis, and in light of those developments the distinction between 'that's impossible' and 'that's highly unlikely' becomes much more salient. if schumer starts pushing for legislation to uncover what information the us government holds about angelic visitations, based on a similar context and set of claims, i'll bang on in a similar vein in that thread as well.
posted by inire at 7:49 AM on July 21, 2023
Extraterrestrial 'technical surprise' is a top concern, Pentagon UFO investigator says
Distinct edge of "I would like to placate the crazies, but I would also like them to stop trying to make me look bad".
posted by Artw at 9:57 PM on July 20 [2 favorites +] [!]
Did you actually watch the video in the link you posted? I did not get any sense of "placating the crazies" from this interview. If you're trying to discourage people from participating in this thread by being smug and denigrating, job well done.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:50 AM on July 21, 2023
Distinct edge of "I would like to placate the crazies, but I would also like them to stop trying to make me look bad".
posted by Artw at 9:57 PM on July 20 [2 favorites +] [!]
Did you actually watch the video in the link you posted? I did not get any sense of "placating the crazies" from this interview. If you're trying to discourage people from participating in this thread by being smug and denigrating, job well done.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:50 AM on July 21, 2023
The essence of skepticism is to withhold belief without evidence.
I do not believe that we are regularly being visited by aliens / non-human intelligences from another dimension / fairies / whateverthefuck esoterica because I have seen no evidence that supports any such proposition to anything like a reasonable degree of probability.
more accurately, the essence of skepticism is to withhold belief without sufficient evidence, and (as a corollary) to attempt to assess whether sufficient evidence exists in as objective and rigorous a way as possible.
bearing that in mind, a skeptic is entirely justified in declining to accept that we’re being visited by aliens. the evidence for that proposition that has been put forward to date is, as you say, nowhere near sufficient to justify such a belief. a skeptic who is willing to apply rigorous and objective analysis to their own priors should also accept that there is insufficient evidence to justify the strong skeptical position i mentioned above, and decline to accept that position.
the various points you make about prior uap reports and debunkings of some of those are all evidence (of varying strength) in favour of the weaker skeptical position, but don’t (to me) seem to take recent developments into account. it’s those developments that lead me to reject the weaker skeptical position in favour of ‘low but not near-zero probability of alien visitation’. if you think that’s drivel, very happy to hear why.
posted by inire at 8:09 AM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
I do not believe that we are regularly being visited by aliens / non-human intelligences from another dimension / fairies / whateverthefuck esoterica because I have seen no evidence that supports any such proposition to anything like a reasonable degree of probability.
more accurately, the essence of skepticism is to withhold belief without sufficient evidence, and (as a corollary) to attempt to assess whether sufficient evidence exists in as objective and rigorous a way as possible.
bearing that in mind, a skeptic is entirely justified in declining to accept that we’re being visited by aliens. the evidence for that proposition that has been put forward to date is, as you say, nowhere near sufficient to justify such a belief. a skeptic who is willing to apply rigorous and objective analysis to their own priors should also accept that there is insufficient evidence to justify the strong skeptical position i mentioned above, and decline to accept that position.
the various points you make about prior uap reports and debunkings of some of those are all evidence (of varying strength) in favour of the weaker skeptical position, but don’t (to me) seem to take recent developments into account. it’s those developments that lead me to reject the weaker skeptical position in favour of ‘low but not near-zero probability of alien visitation’. if you think that’s drivel, very happy to hear why.
posted by inire at 8:09 AM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
> the various points you make about prior uap reports and debunkings of some of those are all evidence (of varying strength) in favour of the weaker skeptical position, but don’t (to me) seem to take recent developments into account. it’s those developments that lead me to reject the weaker skeptical position in favour of ‘low but not near-zero probability of alien visitation’. if you think that’s drivel, very happy to hear why.
amazed by your energy to defend this position (i'm out of energy trying to think of a new argument that would make it through to you), kudos to that, I guess. But as has been pointed out above, there are levels of probability so close to 0 that they might as well be 0. For instance, there's no evidence that I'm not a brain in a vat, or that we're not software defined agents of a massive computer simulation. There's a non-zero probability that such a thing is true (simply because such a thing fits within the entire realm of the possible). But the probability of them being true is so low that it makes no sense to even consider them true for anything other than speculative thought experiments. That's what the skeptical response here is: sure yeah ok it's *possible* that aliens are hanging out with us, for some bare definition of possibility, but the degree of possibility given the evidence is so low as to be equivalent to no possibility. And holding onto that nearly-zero possibility chance is not something driven by the evidence but from some other motivation to believe it to be true.
posted by dis_integration at 9:07 AM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
amazed by your energy to defend this position (i'm out of energy trying to think of a new argument that would make it through to you), kudos to that, I guess. But as has been pointed out above, there are levels of probability so close to 0 that they might as well be 0. For instance, there's no evidence that I'm not a brain in a vat, or that we're not software defined agents of a massive computer simulation. There's a non-zero probability that such a thing is true (simply because such a thing fits within the entire realm of the possible). But the probability of them being true is so low that it makes no sense to even consider them true for anything other than speculative thought experiments. That's what the skeptical response here is: sure yeah ok it's *possible* that aliens are hanging out with us, for some bare definition of possibility, but the degree of possibility given the evidence is so low as to be equivalent to no possibility. And holding onto that nearly-zero possibility chance is not something driven by the evidence but from some other motivation to believe it to be true.
posted by dis_integration at 9:07 AM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
But there aren't recent developments: it's the same handful of videos being pushed by the same cast of characters. There's no fire, there's no smoke, there's just a bunch of people going around saying 'well I haven't seen the smoke personally but I'm quite certain the military has seen the smoke'.
posted by Pyry at 9:10 AM on July 21, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 9:10 AM on July 21, 2023 [9 favorites]
Did you actually watch the video in the link you posted? I did not get any sense of "placating the crazies" from this interview.
I don’t know what you get from that link but I fully get a pre-emotive statement from a man that knows 3-4 Republican congressmen are coming for his job for insufficiently supporting their pet conspiracy theory.
If you're trying to discourage people from participating in this thread by being smug and denigrating, job well done.
Not completely sure what you’re trying to say here but I suggest you stop. This “help! I’m being censored by other people talking” bullshit is extremely tiresome.
posted by Artw at 9:22 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
I don’t know what you get from that link but I fully get a pre-emotive statement from a man that knows 3-4 Republican congressmen are coming for his job for insufficiently supporting their pet conspiracy theory.
If you're trying to discourage people from participating in this thread by being smug and denigrating, job well done.
Not completely sure what you’re trying to say here but I suggest you stop. This “help! I’m being censored by other people talking” bullshit is extremely tiresome.
posted by Artw at 9:22 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
I never used the word censorship.
If you think people trying to seriously discuss UAP/UFOs are QAnon "crazies" then why are bother continuing to post in this thread? Most of your comments are essentially you chiming in to call bullshit. *That* is extremely tiresome and adds nothing to this conversion.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 9:36 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
If you think people trying to seriously discuss UAP/UFOs are QAnon "crazies" then why are bother continuing to post in this thread? Most of your comments are essentially you chiming in to call bullshit. *That* is extremely tiresome and adds nothing to this conversion.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 9:36 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Just to be clear here, I added a link to a statement by Sean Kirkpatrick of AARO and my impressions of it.
You added some complaints about that.
posted by Artw at 9:46 AM on July 21, 2023
You added some complaints about that.
posted by Artw at 9:46 AM on July 21, 2023
Had to step away for a bit. Have the aliens been revealed yet?
posted by signal at 9:48 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by signal at 9:48 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
amazed by your energy to defend this position (i'm out of energy trying to think of a new argument that would make it through to you)
ha! i've posted most of these responses while sitting on multi-hour conference calls (on which i have nothing to contribute but still have to be present) - desperate for something unobtrusive to do that isn't mindless twitter scrolling.
i'm not sure it's a question of arguments 'making it through', as if i'm captain america fending off rigorous arguments with a shield of unreason. i've given what feels like reasonable consideration to the arguments made, and pointed out where and why i think they fall down on the basis of flawed reasoning, excessive confidence in less-than-certain conclusions, overly narrow views as to what variables and evidence should factor into assessments of probability, or the conflation of the distinct strong and weak skeptical positions (the latter two issues are, i think, present in your subsequent argument, for reasons covered in prior posts responding to the same argument as presented by others).
follow-up arguments as to why those criticisms are unjustified have either been non-existent, or (where provided) demonstrate the same issues as the original arguments or have fatal weaknesses of their own, as spelled out above.
as i said lo these many comments ago, i am not motivated to believe the alien explanation is true. i am motivated to know what the explanation for the recent developments is, and therefore to think in some detail about which explanations can be pre-emptively ruled out as effectively impossible. which, per the above, don't include 'it's aliens'.
But there aren't recent developments: it's the same handful of videos being pushed by the same cast of characters. There's no fire, there's no smoke, there's just a bunch of people going around saying 'well I haven't seen the smoke personally but I'm quite certain the military has seen the smoke'.
a new whistleblower from within the uap task force is a recent development. publicised icig / congressional investigations into said whistleblower's allegations are a recent development. references to additional classified materials and evidence being provided to said investigations are recent developments. rubio being reported as saying that this evidence includes purported first-hand testimony (i.e. people who have 'seen the smoke' (or indeed the fire) personally) is a recent development. broader bipartisan support for disclosure of records and materials is a recent development. bipartisan legislation to that end is a recent development.
the fact that you personally have not seen any recent developments is either reflective of you not having read the links, not having access to whatever classified materials and evidence have been provided to congress, or having a definition of 'developments' that rules out pretty much anything short of biden doing a press conference with e.t.
posted by inire at 10:00 AM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
ha! i've posted most of these responses while sitting on multi-hour conference calls (on which i have nothing to contribute but still have to be present) - desperate for something unobtrusive to do that isn't mindless twitter scrolling.
i'm not sure it's a question of arguments 'making it through', as if i'm captain america fending off rigorous arguments with a shield of unreason. i've given what feels like reasonable consideration to the arguments made, and pointed out where and why i think they fall down on the basis of flawed reasoning, excessive confidence in less-than-certain conclusions, overly narrow views as to what variables and evidence should factor into assessments of probability, or the conflation of the distinct strong and weak skeptical positions (the latter two issues are, i think, present in your subsequent argument, for reasons covered in prior posts responding to the same argument as presented by others).
follow-up arguments as to why those criticisms are unjustified have either been non-existent, or (where provided) demonstrate the same issues as the original arguments or have fatal weaknesses of their own, as spelled out above.
as i said lo these many comments ago, i am not motivated to believe the alien explanation is true. i am motivated to know what the explanation for the recent developments is, and therefore to think in some detail about which explanations can be pre-emptively ruled out as effectively impossible. which, per the above, don't include 'it's aliens'.
But there aren't recent developments: it's the same handful of videos being pushed by the same cast of characters. There's no fire, there's no smoke, there's just a bunch of people going around saying 'well I haven't seen the smoke personally but I'm quite certain the military has seen the smoke'.
a new whistleblower from within the uap task force is a recent development. publicised icig / congressional investigations into said whistleblower's allegations are a recent development. references to additional classified materials and evidence being provided to said investigations are recent developments. rubio being reported as saying that this evidence includes purported first-hand testimony (i.e. people who have 'seen the smoke' (or indeed the fire) personally) is a recent development. broader bipartisan support for disclosure of records and materials is a recent development. bipartisan legislation to that end is a recent development.
the fact that you personally have not seen any recent developments is either reflective of you not having read the links, not having access to whatever classified materials and evidence have been provided to congress, or having a definition of 'developments' that rules out pretty much anything short of biden doing a press conference with e.t.
posted by inire at 10:00 AM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
FWIW there’s no new developments Re:the nature or activities of re:UAV in any of the links - saying people haven’t read them on the basis of not finding something that isn’t there is a bit off.
posted by Artw at 10:08 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:08 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
well, i didn't say pyry hadn't read them - i said that was one possibility ("either"). and frankly, there are a lot of links (which is great, rhaomi, not a criticism!), so i wouldn't be surprised if someone hadn't read them, that being a thing that happens quite frequently on mefi.
but when you say "there’s no new developments Re:the nature or activities of re:UAV in any of the links", the developments you seem to be talking about are not the developments i or the original post are talking about.
it's true that there are no new public developments directly relating to the nature or activities of uaps, in the sense of new images, videos, first-hand documents and testimony, etc. being released - for the obvious reason that any such material is likely classified and has only gone to congress.
but there are a lot of new public developments (as listed in my response to pyry and the various links) that indirectly relate to the nature and activities of uaps, by virtue of having been prompted by recent allegations and the provision of information (some classified) on that topic. there also appear to be new non-public developments (provision of classified information, etc.) that are directly related to uaps, or at least purport to be.
so dismissing the topic of this thread on the grounds of 'no new developments, why does anyone care' is - at best - using quite a specific meaning of 'developments' that rather undermines the argument that there's nothing in which to be interested.
posted by inire at 10:23 AM on July 21, 2023
but when you say "there’s no new developments Re:the nature or activities of re:UAV in any of the links", the developments you seem to be talking about are not the developments i or the original post are talking about.
it's true that there are no new public developments directly relating to the nature or activities of uaps, in the sense of new images, videos, first-hand documents and testimony, etc. being released - for the obvious reason that any such material is likely classified and has only gone to congress.
but there are a lot of new public developments (as listed in my response to pyry and the various links) that indirectly relate to the nature and activities of uaps, by virtue of having been prompted by recent allegations and the provision of information (some classified) on that topic. there also appear to be new non-public developments (provision of classified information, etc.) that are directly related to uaps, or at least purport to be.
so dismissing the topic of this thread on the grounds of 'no new developments, why does anyone care' is - at best - using quite a specific meaning of 'developments' that rather undermines the argument that there's nothing in which to be interested.
posted by inire at 10:23 AM on July 21, 2023
There are no new developments in the original post re:the nature or activities of UAVs. There’s some developments around them in terms of the amendment and the hearings but no actual developments - no new evidence, no new claims, no new people coming forwards. It’s perfectly valid to talk about the amendment and the hearing but those in themselves are not evidence of anything.
posted by Artw at 10:29 AM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:29 AM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
There’s some developments around them in terms of the amendment and the hearings but no actual developments - no new evidence, no new claims, no new people coming forwards.
setting aside what the threshold for 'actual' developments should be, this isn't strictly true:
- there is at least one new person coming forward (grusch). there may also be others, but since we don't know who has been contacted as part of the ongoing investigations, we can't be sure of that.
- we know that classified information purporting to be evidence of grusch's allegations has been provided to congress, which is - based on the reporting to date - new to congress. that seems like what you describe as an 'actual' development, the details of which we aren't privy to.
- while the claims are, in a broad sense, not unprecedented (i.e. there have previously been claims that the us government has recovered alien craft, hidden reverse engineering projects in black programs, etc.), the treatment of these claims is markedly different from the treatment of previous similar claims, so in that sense there is something 'new' to consider re these claims.
so that's one actual development (by your standard), one more actual development that we don't have detailed visibility on, and one possibly actual development depending on how you look at it. the fact there haven't been even more developments in terms of public disclosure since the original debrief article is perhaps reflective of the fact that there are congressional investigations ongoing that would likely be derailed if the witnesses started snowdening classified information everywhere.
It’s perfectly valid to talk about the amendment and the hearing but those in themselves are not evidence of anything.
they most certainly are evidence of something, as i pointed out above. but i accept that that 'something' is not 'aliens exist'.
posted by inire at 10:46 AM on July 21, 2023
setting aside what the threshold for 'actual' developments should be, this isn't strictly true:
- there is at least one new person coming forward (grusch). there may also be others, but since we don't know who has been contacted as part of the ongoing investigations, we can't be sure of that.
- we know that classified information purporting to be evidence of grusch's allegations has been provided to congress, which is - based on the reporting to date - new to congress. that seems like what you describe as an 'actual' development, the details of which we aren't privy to.
- while the claims are, in a broad sense, not unprecedented (i.e. there have previously been claims that the us government has recovered alien craft, hidden reverse engineering projects in black programs, etc.), the treatment of these claims is markedly different from the treatment of previous similar claims, so in that sense there is something 'new' to consider re these claims.
so that's one actual development (by your standard), one more actual development that we don't have detailed visibility on, and one possibly actual development depending on how you look at it. the fact there haven't been even more developments in terms of public disclosure since the original debrief article is perhaps reflective of the fact that there are congressional investigations ongoing that would likely be derailed if the witnesses started snowdening classified information everywhere.
It’s perfectly valid to talk about the amendment and the hearing but those in themselves are not evidence of anything.
they most certainly are evidence of something, as i pointed out above. but i accept that that 'something' is not 'aliens exist'.
posted by inire at 10:46 AM on July 21, 2023
Gusch coming forwards is not new and he hasn’t brought anything new with him either.
posted by Artw at 10:51 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:51 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
Gusch coming forwards is not new
when you say 'new', do you mean that in the sense of 'new since the original debrief article / grusch originally coming forward'?
pyry's original comment that "there aren't recent developments" was in response to me talking about recent developments that had prompted me to move from the weaker skeptical position to thinking aliens were a low but non-zero probability explanation - i.e., everything from the original debrief article in early june onwards, when taken as a whole.
i agree that the only developments of note in, say, the last fortnight have been re the congressional hearings and legislation (which are noteworthy, as explained), but those weren't the developments pyry seemed to be talking about. and frankly, even if they were, i'm not sure why one would expect additional first-hand material etc. to be released at this stage.
he hasn’t brought anything new with him either
not to the general public, sure.
posted by inire at 11:02 AM on July 21, 2023
when you say 'new', do you mean that in the sense of 'new since the original debrief article / grusch originally coming forward'?
pyry's original comment that "there aren't recent developments" was in response to me talking about recent developments that had prompted me to move from the weaker skeptical position to thinking aliens were a low but non-zero probability explanation - i.e., everything from the original debrief article in early june onwards, when taken as a whole.
i agree that the only developments of note in, say, the last fortnight have been re the congressional hearings and legislation (which are noteworthy, as explained), but those weren't the developments pyry seemed to be talking about. and frankly, even if they were, i'm not sure why one would expect additional first-hand material etc. to be released at this stage.
he hasn’t brought anything new with him either
not to the general public, sure.
posted by inire at 11:02 AM on July 21, 2023
Schrodinger's evidence. The Grusch Giddyap.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:06 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:06 AM on July 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
Schrodinger's evidence.
to the best of my recollection schrodinger did not posit that the cat was sharing the box with congress.
statements that 'no evidence (or no new evidence) has been provided to congress' are presumably either defining 'evidence' as 'accurate evidence' (in which case the statement is speculative) or are obviously inaccurate, given repeated comments from congresspeople that information purporting to be evidence has been provided.
evidently at least some of that is new to congress, and the fact it is classified suggests it is information that hasn't previously been publicised in its current form. it might be limited to information that relates to or expands on things that have been publicised (so not really 'new' in the same sense as information about things never before alleged might be) - we don't know whether that's the case, although congress do.
i don't know what amount of detail people think would be plausible to have public at this stage, absent someone doing a snowden and dumping their purported classified evidence in public. snowden's current position is instructive as to why people may not be keen to do that.
posted by inire at 11:18 AM on July 21, 2023
to the best of my recollection schrodinger did not posit that the cat was sharing the box with congress.
statements that 'no evidence (or no new evidence) has been provided to congress' are presumably either defining 'evidence' as 'accurate evidence' (in which case the statement is speculative) or are obviously inaccurate, given repeated comments from congresspeople that information purporting to be evidence has been provided.
evidently at least some of that is new to congress, and the fact it is classified suggests it is information that hasn't previously been publicised in its current form. it might be limited to information that relates to or expands on things that have been publicised (so not really 'new' in the same sense as information about things never before alleged might be) - we don't know whether that's the case, although congress do.
i don't know what amount of detail people think would be plausible to have public at this stage, absent someone doing a snowden and dumping their purported classified evidence in public. snowden's current position is instructive as to why people may not be keen to do that.
posted by inire at 11:18 AM on July 21, 2023
How tedious. You're relying on evidence that's presently unobservable to us as though it has persuasive weight because of the hullabaloo going on around it.
Is your position going to change when this turns out to be nothingburger? I doubt it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:21 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Is your position going to change when this turns out to be nothingburger? I doubt it.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:21 AM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Things I will accept as “evidence”:
1. Evidence
1a. That you can show me
1b. Relating to the claim being made
posted by Artw at 11:29 AM on July 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
1. Evidence
1a. That you can show me
1b. Relating to the claim being made
posted by Artw at 11:29 AM on July 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
How tedious. You're relying on evidence that's presently unobservable to us as though it has persuasive weight because of the hullabaloo going on around it.
Is your position going to change when this turns out to be nothingburger? I doubt it.
as set out ad nauseam above, my position is that there are many possible explanations for recent developments - almost all of which are (more or less) mundane, plus the "it's aliens" explanation, which seems to me to have a low but not-equivalent-to-zero probability of being the correct one. so if this turns out to have a mundane explanation, that would be consistent with my position, and i will be unsurprised.
currently, i rely on the response to the evidence (i.e. the information provided to congress that we're not privy to), not its content. the fact that the response has been very different to the response to previous examples of such 'evidence' could help to support the aliens explanation, but could also help to support other mundane explanations (e.g. psyop, use of fake craft recovery programs to disguise and siphon off funds for other purposes, etc.), which is why my confidence in the aliens explanation remains low. if you think the difference in response cannot possibly support the aliens explanation, i would be keen to hear why that isn't based on your presupposition that the explanation can't under any circumstances be aliens.
if, on the other hand, you're overcome with boredom, other threads are available to you!
Things I will accept as “evidence”:
1. Evidence
1a. That you can show me
1b. Relating to the claim being made
can't argue with that. which claim did you have in mind?
posted by inire at 11:44 AM on July 21, 2023
Is your position going to change when this turns out to be nothingburger? I doubt it.
as set out ad nauseam above, my position is that there are many possible explanations for recent developments - almost all of which are (more or less) mundane, plus the "it's aliens" explanation, which seems to me to have a low but not-equivalent-to-zero probability of being the correct one. so if this turns out to have a mundane explanation, that would be consistent with my position, and i will be unsurprised.
currently, i rely on the response to the evidence (i.e. the information provided to congress that we're not privy to), not its content. the fact that the response has been very different to the response to previous examples of such 'evidence' could help to support the aliens explanation, but could also help to support other mundane explanations (e.g. psyop, use of fake craft recovery programs to disguise and siphon off funds for other purposes, etc.), which is why my confidence in the aliens explanation remains low. if you think the difference in response cannot possibly support the aliens explanation, i would be keen to hear why that isn't based on your presupposition that the explanation can't under any circumstances be aliens.
if, on the other hand, you're overcome with boredom, other threads are available to you!
Things I will accept as “evidence”:
1. Evidence
1a. That you can show me
1b. Relating to the claim being made
can't argue with that. which claim did you have in mind?
posted by inire at 11:44 AM on July 21, 2023
can't argue with that. which claim did you have in mind?
Literally any claim made by David Grursh for a start. Revivers craft, government conspiracies since the 40s, etc…
Any claim Re:FLIR blobs beyond “people have seem some weird stuff on FLIR and a tiny portion of it dies not to date have mundane explanations”
Any claim made that there’s attempts to hide some truth greater than that re:FLIR blobs.
posted by Artw at 11:52 AM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Literally any claim made by David Grursh for a start. Revivers craft, government conspiracies since the 40s, etc…
Any claim Re:FLIR blobs beyond “people have seem some weird stuff on FLIR and a tiny portion of it dies not to date have mundane explanations”
Any claim made that there’s attempts to hide some truth greater than that re:FLIR blobs.
posted by Artw at 11:52 AM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
currently, i rely on the response to the evidence (i.e. the information provided to congress that we're not privy to), not its content.
Thus, 'Schrodinger's evidence.' The tedious part was pretending not to get the joke to put Congress in the box and say the same thing for the umpteenth time.
May I suggest that if you're bored, you go find a different thread? Rather than stepping in to object to every remark that chafes you? Six of the last fourteen comments are yours. People are allowed to enjoy the thread differently from each other.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:18 PM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Thus, 'Schrodinger's evidence.' The tedious part was pretending not to get the joke to put Congress in the box and say the same thing for the umpteenth time.
May I suggest that if you're bored, you go find a different thread? Rather than stepping in to object to every remark that chafes you? Six of the last fourteen comments are yours. People are allowed to enjoy the thread differently from each other.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:18 PM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Look, this plate of beans could have technically come from anywhere even though we all see the empty bean cans in the garbage, and I'm not saying aliens made these beans but I'm not not saying that
posted by jason_steakums at 12:32 PM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 12:32 PM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
i appreciate the suggestion, snuffleupagus, but i'm not finding this dull - it's an interesting (to me) discussion. the only reference to tediousness was your previous comment. but i do agree people are allowed to enjoy the thread differently from each other, hence i don't see a problem with our disagreements. 400+ comment threads do tend to reduce to the same handful of people by the end, but if you think my discussion with others (which is what my recent comments consist of) is somehow 'not allowing' people to enjoy the thread, i'll refer you to artw.
Literally any claim made by David Grursh for a start. Revivers craft, government conspiracies since the 40s, etc…
Any claim Re:FLIR blobs beyond “people have seem some weird stuff on FLIR and a tiny portion of it dies not to date have mundane explanations”
Any claim made that there’s attempts to hide some truth greater than that re:FLIR blobs.
nothing that could constitute evidence for any of these is currently available to you (or me) other than the inferences that can be drawn from the congressional reaction to the non-public information provided (which inferences can, as i said, support multiple explanations, including the alien one). hence previous comments re how far one can go re the probability of the alien explanation (not very).
posted by inire at 1:12 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
Literally any claim made by David Grursh for a start. Revivers craft, government conspiracies since the 40s, etc…
Any claim Re:FLIR blobs beyond “people have seem some weird stuff on FLIR and a tiny portion of it dies not to date have mundane explanations”
Any claim made that there’s attempts to hide some truth greater than that re:FLIR blobs.
nothing that could constitute evidence for any of these is currently available to you (or me) other than the inferences that can be drawn from the congressional reaction to the non-public information provided (which inferences can, as i said, support multiple explanations, including the alien one). hence previous comments re how far one can go re the probability of the alien explanation (not very).
posted by inire at 1:12 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
Okay so we got to “there is no evidence” then at least, though it took an awful lot of waffle to get there.
posted by Artw at 1:25 PM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 1:25 PM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
To me the argument of the believers sounds like someone attempting to argue that magic is real because among the millions of magicians out there and performances captured on camera some are not readily explained and form time to time they’ve even “fooled” experts like Penn and Teller. I will continue to assume these unexplained phenomena are simple tricks / illusions until presented with extraordinary and overwhelming evidence for the same reasons I wouldn’t accept that any performer is doing real magic. I’m not afraid and I’m not sad. The universe is extraordinary and I want us to study and explore it more. We waste our time, attention, and money on this rather than doubling down on the work that is yielding results. It saddens me that The Secrets of Skinwalker Ranch has a multi-season TV show not the Secrets of James Webb Space Telescope or the Mars Rovers. Alas they would rather have aliens and even if there was a program like that they’d have someone saying “that rock is aliens”.
posted by interogative mood at 1:38 PM on July 21, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:38 PM on July 21, 2023 [13 favorites]
Okay so we got to “there is no evidence” then at least, though it took an awful lot of waffle to get there.
if you adopt your definition of 'evidence' (which ignores anything not immediately in front of you) and also stopped reading before "other than", sure. also we got to this point two days ago but people seemed to want to discuss it further ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by inire at 2:33 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
if you adopt your definition of 'evidence' (which ignores anything not immediately in front of you) and also stopped reading before "other than", sure. also we got to this point two days ago but people seemed to want to discuss it further ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by inire at 2:33 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
The linked comment appears to be you saying there IS evidence, and that anyone who says otherwise is making “crap arguments that fall short of their own demands for rigor” and that it is is “a silly and shallow argument” not to say something “weird” (ie paranormal) is going on, etc… etc… ?
Pretty bold.
posted by Artw at 3:17 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
Pretty bold.
posted by Artw at 3:17 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
I am willing to accept ArtW's definition of "evidence" as meaning "evidence", and not "no evidence", which would include all the stuff after "other than", since that is not actually "evidence", yes.
posted by kyrademon at 3:18 PM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by kyrademon at 3:18 PM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
It is not rigorous or logical to place two positions equal to each other when one of them is the null hypothesis and the other requires several leaps and multiple "we don't know *for sure* it's not possible" spackle jobs. The skeptical position that this is almost certainly not aliens and is instead mundane is far likelier than the position that there might be secret evidence that might be related to non-public incidents and which might not be explicable through the same mundane reasons that turn out to be true in every case where we have enough evidence to examine and thus it might be aliens and they might be intelligent and they might be so intelligent that they have discovered gaps in the laws of physics that we don't even know to look for yet and those gaps might pertain to space travel and they might have chosen to come to this planet over any of the billions and billions of other planets and they might have somehow been spotted or crashed despite this vastly superior transportation technology and this evidence might have been covered up by the first known successful worldwide conspiracy between all world governments.
Or, it might just be the same thing that we usually get for UAPs, i.e. some weird looking data on detectors or unverifiable personal testimonies without any physical evidence. This is the null hypothesis, the default pose, the baseline assumption because of all prior tests.
Do you see why it is silly to claim that these positions are equally skeptical to hold? Yes, it's strictly definitionally possible that this hearing will involve revelations of real honest non-human intelligence in the universe, but it is extremely unlikely to be the case. Pleading to hidden evidence or imaginary physics is identical to the old "God of the gaps," where theology kept mushing the Christian god into a smaller and smaller area of possible measurable influence as scientific understanding expanded and natural explanations for various phenomena became widely known and understood.
posted by Scattercat at 3:24 PM on July 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
Or, it might just be the same thing that we usually get for UAPs, i.e. some weird looking data on detectors or unverifiable personal testimonies without any physical evidence. This is the null hypothesis, the default pose, the baseline assumption because of all prior tests.
Do you see why it is silly to claim that these positions are equally skeptical to hold? Yes, it's strictly definitionally possible that this hearing will involve revelations of real honest non-human intelligence in the universe, but it is extremely unlikely to be the case. Pleading to hidden evidence or imaginary physics is identical to the old "God of the gaps," where theology kept mushing the Christian god into a smaller and smaller area of possible measurable influence as scientific understanding expanded and natural explanations for various phenomena became widely known and understood.
posted by Scattercat at 3:24 PM on July 21, 2023 [8 favorites]
There is a mention of “ classified information has (or has not) been provided to congress, or whatever other information we don't have about life, the universe and everything, which is probably quite a lot” - all of which I believe the technical legal term for would be “facts not in evidence”, so I’m going to stick with ignoring it.
posted by Artw at 3:24 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 3:24 PM on July 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
the inferences that can be drawn from the congressional reaction to the non-public information provided
The inference I draw from that is that it has a mundane explanation, namely the obvious increase in the number of complete fucking idiots elected to Congress since the advent of the Tea Party in 2009.
That increase, in turn, has been driven and enabled by an equally obvious decline in the quality of public discourse on damn near everything, with fairly sharp step slippages at each of the following notable cultural landmarks: the publication of both The Celestine Prophecy and The X Files in 1993, the creation of Fox News in 1996, the destruction of the Twin Towers in 2001, and the opening up of Facebook in 2006.
I distinctly recall being disconcerted, very soon after each of these events, at the extent to which people I knew and respected had begun to allow their critical faculties to become overwhelmed by suddenly fashionable batshit nonsense.
There is indeed nothing new in Grusch or the Congressional reaction to Grusch. It's the same old smoke-without-fire horseshit as ever, and none of it deserves any more respect than it ever did.
That's my considered opinion, not my religious belief. Show me unambiguous evidence of the engineering applicability of new physics rooted in anything but old-fashioned hard human work and I will more than likely change my mind. Unless and until that happens, I'm not the slightest bit motivated to.
posted by flabdablet at 3:33 PM on July 21, 2023 [9 favorites]
The inference I draw from that is that it has a mundane explanation, namely the obvious increase in the number of complete fucking idiots elected to Congress since the advent of the Tea Party in 2009.
That increase, in turn, has been driven and enabled by an equally obvious decline in the quality of public discourse on damn near everything, with fairly sharp step slippages at each of the following notable cultural landmarks: the publication of both The Celestine Prophecy and The X Files in 1993, the creation of Fox News in 1996, the destruction of the Twin Towers in 2001, and the opening up of Facebook in 2006.
I distinctly recall being disconcerted, very soon after each of these events, at the extent to which people I knew and respected had begun to allow their critical faculties to become overwhelmed by suddenly fashionable batshit nonsense.
There is indeed nothing new in Grusch or the Congressional reaction to Grusch. It's the same old smoke-without-fire horseshit as ever, and none of it deserves any more respect than it ever did.
That's my considered opinion, not my religious belief. Show me unambiguous evidence of the engineering applicability of new physics rooted in anything but old-fashioned hard human work and I will more than likely change my mind. Unless and until that happens, I'm not the slightest bit motivated to.
posted by flabdablet at 3:33 PM on July 21, 2023 [9 favorites]
The inference I draw from that is that it has a mundane explanation, namely the obvious increase in the number of complete fucking idiots elected to Congress since the advent of the Tea Party in 2009.
Let's not forget the smarter ones on the R side of the aisle who know that a big show about UFOs followed by nothing of substance is going to further entrench people inclined to think that the government is useless, malicious and lying about everything. And then across both parties you've got people eager to rake Pentagon officials over the coals, people eager to get their faces and sound bites front and center in hyped up hearings, people wanting to be associated with popular bills that don't require any tough stances, and that's just skimming the surface. Lots of different reasons for different members of Congress to be acting like this is important all of a sudden once the ball starts rolling.
posted by jason_steakums at 3:49 PM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
Let's not forget the smarter ones on the R side of the aisle who know that a big show about UFOs followed by nothing of substance is going to further entrench people inclined to think that the government is useless, malicious and lying about everything. And then across both parties you've got people eager to rake Pentagon officials over the coals, people eager to get their faces and sound bites front and center in hyped up hearings, people wanting to be associated with popular bills that don't require any tough stances, and that's just skimming the surface. Lots of different reasons for different members of Congress to be acting like this is important all of a sudden once the ball starts rolling.
posted by jason_steakums at 3:49 PM on July 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
The vicious circle of conspiratorial reasoning is really rough once you get into the spiral. If new evidence, however tenuous, pops up? Hypothesis confirmed! If no evidence appears? Proof that THEY are hiding it! Hypothesis confirmed!
posted by Scattercat at 3:58 PM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Scattercat at 3:58 PM on July 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
I did not get any sense of "placating the crazies" from this interview.
I got a distinct sense of a competent public official turning in a creditable performance at refusing to rise to any of the obvious gotcha questions dangled in front of him by an interviewer clearly motivated more by click hunger than truth seeking.
I thought he did a really good job of walking the PR tightrope, making the point that no, he's seen no evidence that would make alien visitation the most likely explanation and no, he's unaware of any recovered alien material being held in secret and yes, he would have access to it if the US Government had any.
I think "placating the crazies" is an entirely fair way to characterize the way he bent over backwards to avoid saying anything amenable to being twisted into The Gubmint Is Hiding The Aliens. And yet, precisely because he did straight-up deny the existence of a secret alien artifact hoard while affirming that self-styled whistleblowers fully believe that there is one, I'm sure there are lots of people who would interpret his attitude as almost as condescending as mine.
posted by flabdablet at 4:51 PM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
I got a distinct sense of a competent public official turning in a creditable performance at refusing to rise to any of the obvious gotcha questions dangled in front of him by an interviewer clearly motivated more by click hunger than truth seeking.
I thought he did a really good job of walking the PR tightrope, making the point that no, he's seen no evidence that would make alien visitation the most likely explanation and no, he's unaware of any recovered alien material being held in secret and yes, he would have access to it if the US Government had any.
I think "placating the crazies" is an entirely fair way to characterize the way he bent over backwards to avoid saying anything amenable to being twisted into The Gubmint Is Hiding The Aliens. And yet, precisely because he did straight-up deny the existence of a secret alien artifact hoard while affirming that self-styled whistleblowers fully believe that there is one, I'm sure there are lots of people who would interpret his attitude as almost as condescending as mine.
posted by flabdablet at 4:51 PM on July 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
inire Hold up a sec.
We're getting into the same sort of territory here that we do with God.
The Believer makes an extraordinary claim.
The Skeptic requests evidence.
Evidence is not really forthcoming.
The Skeptic says that in the absence of evidence FOR the claim then they will act as if the claim was false until evidence for it is found.
You're arguing that this is wrong? That the burden of proof lies on both the person making a claim and the person they're trying to convince?
Cuz, I can make a LOT of claims, heck I can head over to ChatGPT and get it to churn out claims by the bucketload. The only reasonable position seems to be that claims made without evidence need to be treated as false or else we wind up drowning in nonsense.
And what we have from the UFO people is at about the same level as the typical 'evidence' provided for deities, faith healing, fairies, magic, etc. A bunch of eye witness stuff, a tiny handful of things that are testable, and everything we've been able to test has turned out to be fake.
At some point you have to say "nah bro, come back when you've got something real", don't you?
If you argue that skepticism must remain neutral on UFO's then why not argue the same for God? Or fairies? Or magic? What makes UFO's different from all the other groundless claims that have no evidence?
Ironically I asked the same question of several people arguing for God using UFO's as one example of a baseless claim that their reasoning would demand I be neutral on....
posted by sotonohito at 7:07 PM on July 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
We're getting into the same sort of territory here that we do with God.
The Believer makes an extraordinary claim.
The Skeptic requests evidence.
Evidence is not really forthcoming.
The Skeptic says that in the absence of evidence FOR the claim then they will act as if the claim was false until evidence for it is found.
You're arguing that this is wrong? That the burden of proof lies on both the person making a claim and the person they're trying to convince?
Cuz, I can make a LOT of claims, heck I can head over to ChatGPT and get it to churn out claims by the bucketload. The only reasonable position seems to be that claims made without evidence need to be treated as false or else we wind up drowning in nonsense.
And what we have from the UFO people is at about the same level as the typical 'evidence' provided for deities, faith healing, fairies, magic, etc. A bunch of eye witness stuff, a tiny handful of things that are testable, and everything we've been able to test has turned out to be fake.
At some point you have to say "nah bro, come back when you've got something real", don't you?
If you argue that skepticism must remain neutral on UFO's then why not argue the same for God? Or fairies? Or magic? What makes UFO's different from all the other groundless claims that have no evidence?
Ironically I asked the same question of several people arguing for God using UFO's as one example of a baseless claim that their reasoning would demand I be neutral on....
posted by sotonohito at 7:07 PM on July 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
I have read, in full, a lot of peer-reviewed papers in an area of science (unrelated to UAPs), and made a modest contribution to the relevant debates via the usual proper formal means.
One of the better rules of thumb for judging the strength of any argument or claim in the papers is how many conditionals are used. Words like: could, might, may be, suggests, possibly, etc.*
Claims about the alien origin of UAPs typically use a lot of these words.
Of course some UAPs being aliens is strictly possible, but it is not even close to being proven in any meaningful sense. At this stage it remains firmly in the realm of speculative.
(*There is nothing wrong with these word when used to appropriately indicate the limits of evidence based claims, and when discussing further avenues of possible research. The problem starts when possibly morphs into certainly without the required level of evidence, which it does a lot more than many might believe in science.)
••••••
Regarding the flight path of the UAP in the gimbal video and its allegedly physics-breaking vertical u-turn, the key issue seems to be how far away the UAP was from the gimbal camera.
At around 30nm the flight path can be explained with known physics and human tech. At around 10nm (or less) there is an interesting phenomena without an explanation, so far.
I have no idea which is correct.
posted by Pouteria at 9:27 PM on July 21, 2023
One of the better rules of thumb for judging the strength of any argument or claim in the papers is how many conditionals are used. Words like: could, might, may be, suggests, possibly, etc.*
Claims about the alien origin of UAPs typically use a lot of these words.
Of course some UAPs being aliens is strictly possible, but it is not even close to being proven in any meaningful sense. At this stage it remains firmly in the realm of speculative.
(*There is nothing wrong with these word when used to appropriately indicate the limits of evidence based claims, and when discussing further avenues of possible research. The problem starts when possibly morphs into certainly without the required level of evidence, which it does a lot more than many might believe in science.)
••••••
Regarding the flight path of the UAP in the gimbal video and its allegedly physics-breaking vertical u-turn, the key issue seems to be how far away the UAP was from the gimbal camera.
At around 30nm the flight path can be explained with known physics and human tech. At around 10nm (or less) there is an interesting phenomena without an explanation, so far.
I have no idea which is correct.
posted by Pouteria at 9:27 PM on July 21, 2023
The classified information shared with Congress, or not shared with Congress may not be any more credible than the “evidence” we seen so far. As we saw in the run up to the US invasion of Iraq often the classified intel is pure garbage. This could be Saddam’s WMD all over again.
posted by interogative mood at 11:21 PM on July 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:21 PM on July 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
The linked comment appears to be you saying there IS evidence, and that anyone who says otherwise is making “crap arguments that fall short of their own demands for rigor” and that it is is “a silly and shallow argument” not to say something “weird” (ie paranormal) is going on, etc… etc… ?
appearances can be deceiving, apparently. the linked comment is me saying “if we look solely at the facts and allegations that are public, it's apparent that there is something weird going on, and that is worth investigating, even if you don't think it involves aliens”. as repeatedly pointed out to you and others, “weird” does not mean “(ie paranormal)” or "it must be aliens!", it means “unusual for reasons we cannot explain, but that might (with a low degree of confidence) include aliens”.
the linked comment is also me saying “the available evidence [i.e. those public facts and allegations] is consistent with an aliens / nhi explanation (while also being consistent with many other mundane explanations).”
one of the disconnects here seems to be that you define ‘evidence’ as being something that would materially shift your view towards believing in aliens – and possibly something that could only support the alien explanation, not any other explanation..? - which the public facts and allegations don’t, so they’re not (on your definition) ‘evidence’ of anything. i define evidence as meaning ‘anything that has any bearing at all on the likelihood of an explanation being true’, including things that have a very limited bearing on that and / or support multiple other explanations, as is the case here.
for me, saying something is ‘evidence’ doesn’t ascribe it some sort of incontrovertible status of being true or capable of convincing you, by itself, that the explanation is true – it just has some impact (however limited) on the likelihood of that explanation. it’s what you consider to determine whether or not something is true, not just the things that do (in the end) support the truth of that thing – think of the difference between ‘the evidence put to the court by the prosecution and defence’ and ‘the evidence relied on by the jury to convict’. i think it’s apparent that the public facts and allegations have some impact on the likelihood of the aliens explanation, as covered in previous comments, but that impact is limited, uncertain and not confined to the aliens explanation. if that means you wouldn’t describe them as ‘evidence’, because you use the term in a different way, that’s fine.
Do you see why it is silly to claim that these positions are equally skeptical to hold? Yes, it's strictly definitionally possible that this hearing will involve revelations of real honest non-human intelligence in the universe, but it is extremely unlikely to be the case.
the positions i compared were the ‘it’s aliens’ position and the strong skeptical position (i.e. effectively zero probability of aliens regardless of limits of current knowledge). per your note that the alien explanation is technically possible, you’re not putting forward the strong skeptical position, you’re putting forward the weaker one, which – while i disagree with it – i haven’t claimed to be equivalent to ‘it’s aliens’.
posted by inire at 2:05 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
appearances can be deceiving, apparently. the linked comment is me saying “if we look solely at the facts and allegations that are public, it's apparent that there is something weird going on, and that is worth investigating, even if you don't think it involves aliens”. as repeatedly pointed out to you and others, “weird” does not mean “(ie paranormal)” or "it must be aliens!", it means “unusual for reasons we cannot explain, but that might (with a low degree of confidence) include aliens”.
the linked comment is also me saying “the available evidence [i.e. those public facts and allegations] is consistent with an aliens / nhi explanation (while also being consistent with many other mundane explanations).”
one of the disconnects here seems to be that you define ‘evidence’ as being something that would materially shift your view towards believing in aliens – and possibly something that could only support the alien explanation, not any other explanation..? - which the public facts and allegations don’t, so they’re not (on your definition) ‘evidence’ of anything. i define evidence as meaning ‘anything that has any bearing at all on the likelihood of an explanation being true’, including things that have a very limited bearing on that and / or support multiple other explanations, as is the case here.
for me, saying something is ‘evidence’ doesn’t ascribe it some sort of incontrovertible status of being true or capable of convincing you, by itself, that the explanation is true – it just has some impact (however limited) on the likelihood of that explanation. it’s what you consider to determine whether or not something is true, not just the things that do (in the end) support the truth of that thing – think of the difference between ‘the evidence put to the court by the prosecution and defence’ and ‘the evidence relied on by the jury to convict’. i think it’s apparent that the public facts and allegations have some impact on the likelihood of the aliens explanation, as covered in previous comments, but that impact is limited, uncertain and not confined to the aliens explanation. if that means you wouldn’t describe them as ‘evidence’, because you use the term in a different way, that’s fine.
Do you see why it is silly to claim that these positions are equally skeptical to hold? Yes, it's strictly definitionally possible that this hearing will involve revelations of real honest non-human intelligence in the universe, but it is extremely unlikely to be the case.
the positions i compared were the ‘it’s aliens’ position and the strong skeptical position (i.e. effectively zero probability of aliens regardless of limits of current knowledge). per your note that the alien explanation is technically possible, you’re not putting forward the strong skeptical position, you’re putting forward the weaker one, which – while i disagree with it – i haven’t claimed to be equivalent to ‘it’s aliens’.
posted by inire at 2:05 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
inire Hold up a sec.
We're getting into the same sort of territory here that we do with God.
The Believer makes an extraordinary claim.
The Skeptic requests evidence.
Evidence is not really forthcoming.
The Skeptic says that in the absence of evidence FOR the claim then they will act as if the claim was false until evidence for it is found.
You're arguing that this is wrong?
yes, but in different ways. the claim(s) i’ve made are that (i) the aliens explanation cannot be a priori dismissed as impossible (which people seem now to be inclined to agree with), and (ii) that explanation has a low but not effectively zero probability of being correct, based on the information we have at present (which people strenuously disagree with). the former claim is not extraordinary, but you might see the latter as extraordinary or merely as mistaken (depending on your view).
i’ve argued that the skeptical dismissal of the former claim is very clearly wrong. re the latter claim, it’s apparent that we’re not all using the same meaning of evidence, per my previous comment - but that aside, i would say the skeptic is wrong insofar as they’re acting as if the claim is false, rather than merely low probability. however, that is a much more limited degree of wrongness than dismissal of the former claim.
Of course some UAPs being aliens is strictly possible, but it is not even close to being proven in any meaningful sense. At this stage it remains firmly in the realm of speculative.
(*There is nothing wrong with these word when used to appropriately indicate the limits of evidence based claims, and when discussing further avenues of possible research. The problem starts when possibly morphs into certainly without the required level of evidence, which it does a lot more than many might believe in science.)
fully agree. hence the emphasis on this as a possibility and very far from a certainty.
posted by inire at 2:25 AM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
We're getting into the same sort of territory here that we do with God.
The Believer makes an extraordinary claim.
The Skeptic requests evidence.
Evidence is not really forthcoming.
The Skeptic says that in the absence of evidence FOR the claim then they will act as if the claim was false until evidence for it is found.
You're arguing that this is wrong?
yes, but in different ways. the claim(s) i’ve made are that (i) the aliens explanation cannot be a priori dismissed as impossible (which people seem now to be inclined to agree with), and (ii) that explanation has a low but not effectively zero probability of being correct, based on the information we have at present (which people strenuously disagree with). the former claim is not extraordinary, but you might see the latter as extraordinary or merely as mistaken (depending on your view).
i’ve argued that the skeptical dismissal of the former claim is very clearly wrong. re the latter claim, it’s apparent that we’re not all using the same meaning of evidence, per my previous comment - but that aside, i would say the skeptic is wrong insofar as they’re acting as if the claim is false, rather than merely low probability. however, that is a much more limited degree of wrongness than dismissal of the former claim.
Of course some UAPs being aliens is strictly possible, but it is not even close to being proven in any meaningful sense. At this stage it remains firmly in the realm of speculative.
(*There is nothing wrong with these word when used to appropriately indicate the limits of evidence based claims, and when discussing further avenues of possible research. The problem starts when possibly morphs into certainly without the required level of evidence, which it does a lot more than many might believe in science.)
fully agree. hence the emphasis on this as a possibility and very far from a certainty.
posted by inire at 2:25 AM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
that explanation has a low but not effectively zero probability of being correct
I'll happily go out on a limb of whatever thinness you deem appropriate to say that in my considered opinion the probability of any paranormal or visiting-aliens explanation being correct - ever, for anything - is indeed so close to zero that it might as well be zero for all practical purposes.
More than willing to look extremely stupid if wrong about this, though I honestly don't expect I'll ever have to.
I have more confidence in alien-visitation and paranormal claims all being 100% huckster horseshit signal-boosted by convinced marks than I have in not being struck by lightning tomorrow.
posted by flabdablet at 3:40 AM on July 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
I'll happily go out on a limb of whatever thinness you deem appropriate to say that in my considered opinion the probability of any paranormal or visiting-aliens explanation being correct - ever, for anything - is indeed so close to zero that it might as well be zero for all practical purposes.
More than willing to look extremely stupid if wrong about this, though I honestly don't expect I'll ever have to.
I have more confidence in alien-visitation and paranormal claims all being 100% huckster horseshit signal-boosted by convinced marks than I have in not being struck by lightning tomorrow.
posted by flabdablet at 3:40 AM on July 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
If it's all a waste of time then this thread sure has a lot of people wanting to waste that time.
Inire, you've been unfailingly polite and I've appreciated your responses.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:39 AM on July 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
Inire, you've been unfailingly polite and I've appreciated your responses.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:39 AM on July 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
you've been unfailingly polite
I don't think tiny frying pan was intending to damn with faint praise here ... but yeah, as arguments go, they're certainly polite.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 6:55 AM on July 22, 2023
I don't think tiny frying pan was intending to damn with faint praise here ... but yeah, as arguments go, they're certainly polite.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 6:55 AM on July 22, 2023
Mod note: Comment removed. Per the Guidelines, please be "be considerate and respectful,
" so telling someone to "go away" is not that.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:03 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
" so telling someone to "go away" is not that.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 7:03 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
Absolutely not, I was being completely sincere. Wish everyone here was as nice as Inire.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:20 AM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:20 AM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
inire you define ‘evidence’ as being something that would materially shift your view towards believing in aliens – and possibly something that could only support the alien explanation, not any other explanation
When dealing with someone making a particular claim what other definition for evidence would be practical?
I'll agree that observations presented as if they were evidence for X may actually be pretty damn handy when investigating Y, but the idea that investigating one thing and finding stuff about something completely different isn't what we're talking about here.
In this case we have people making a specific claim: UFO's are aliens [1].
If what they present as evidence is NOT something that could only support the alien explanation then what possible value is it when advancing the claim that UFO's are aliens?
We may also be at a bit of a linguistic hairsplitting when it comes to "dismissing as impossible".
I'm respectful of the limits of my own understanding, my own brain, and my own thinking. As a result I take the position that I lack the ability to decide that ANYTHING AT ALL has a probability of exactly 0. It's always going to 0.000000000000....1. Maybe with a whole fuckton of zeros before we get to that terminal 1, but I take the philosophic position that I shouldn't assume anything is actually, literally, impossible.
Will gravity stop working tomorrow? I'd be extremely surprised if it did, but I can't say that I am 100% absolutely certain with not even the tiniest shred of doubt that it won't stop working.
However, because I'm a human who has to live in an imperfect universe using an imperfect brain, I am incapable of holding all possibilities in my head, and I'm unable to assign actual percentages or probabilities to the validity of any given non-evidential claim.
So if a claim lacks sufficient evidence I treat it as if it was false while acknowledging that I may well be wrong in doing so. It's not that I say it actually is false, but more that I say my working assumption is that it's false until evidence to the contrary shows up.
Which is where I stand with God, the likelihood of gravity suddenly ceasing to function, the odds that I can say "Shazam!" and turn into Captain Marvel, and so on.
I also put the idea that UFO's are aliens into that category because so far none of the evidence presented for the position that UFO's are aliens actually seems like evidence for that position. It's a bunch of hearsay from mostly laughably dishonest people, and what tiny shreds of empirical evidence exist have been found to have mundane explanations when we can test them.
Then also we have experience. We find out how things work, and so far every single thing we've found that actually does work and is real has been.... not magic.
This doesn't mean that magic is impossible and the odds of the next thing being magic are exactly zero. But I think it does mean I'm fairly safe in working on the assumption that the explanation for any seemingly unusual thing is going to turn out to be not magic.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence because of that experience, that history, of extraordinary claims being bunk and the proposed non-mundane explanations being nonsense.
So I use the working assumption that UFO's aren't aliens until evidence, real, strong, evidence for the contrary is presented and I have a pretty high bar for what I'll consider to be real strong evidence for that position. Not because I think it's impossible, but since history shows a marked lack of evidence for magic the odds seem to strongly favor the position that the supposed evidence is, in fact, bunk.
[1] Or "UAP" and "NHI" or whatever other terms they prefer but let's just be honest it's UFO's and aliens.
posted by sotonohito at 9:30 AM on July 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
When dealing with someone making a particular claim what other definition for evidence would be practical?
I'll agree that observations presented as if they were evidence for X may actually be pretty damn handy when investigating Y, but the idea that investigating one thing and finding stuff about something completely different isn't what we're talking about here.
In this case we have people making a specific claim: UFO's are aliens [1].
If what they present as evidence is NOT something that could only support the alien explanation then what possible value is it when advancing the claim that UFO's are aliens?
We may also be at a bit of a linguistic hairsplitting when it comes to "dismissing as impossible".
I'm respectful of the limits of my own understanding, my own brain, and my own thinking. As a result I take the position that I lack the ability to decide that ANYTHING AT ALL has a probability of exactly 0. It's always going to 0.000000000000....1. Maybe with a whole fuckton of zeros before we get to that terminal 1, but I take the philosophic position that I shouldn't assume anything is actually, literally, impossible.
Will gravity stop working tomorrow? I'd be extremely surprised if it did, but I can't say that I am 100% absolutely certain with not even the tiniest shred of doubt that it won't stop working.
However, because I'm a human who has to live in an imperfect universe using an imperfect brain, I am incapable of holding all possibilities in my head, and I'm unable to assign actual percentages or probabilities to the validity of any given non-evidential claim.
So if a claim lacks sufficient evidence I treat it as if it was false while acknowledging that I may well be wrong in doing so. It's not that I say it actually is false, but more that I say my working assumption is that it's false until evidence to the contrary shows up.
Which is where I stand with God, the likelihood of gravity suddenly ceasing to function, the odds that I can say "Shazam!" and turn into Captain Marvel, and so on.
I also put the idea that UFO's are aliens into that category because so far none of the evidence presented for the position that UFO's are aliens actually seems like evidence for that position. It's a bunch of hearsay from mostly laughably dishonest people, and what tiny shreds of empirical evidence exist have been found to have mundane explanations when we can test them.
Then also we have experience. We find out how things work, and so far every single thing we've found that actually does work and is real has been.... not magic.
This doesn't mean that magic is impossible and the odds of the next thing being magic are exactly zero. But I think it does mean I'm fairly safe in working on the assumption that the explanation for any seemingly unusual thing is going to turn out to be not magic.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence because of that experience, that history, of extraordinary claims being bunk and the proposed non-mundane explanations being nonsense.
So I use the working assumption that UFO's aren't aliens until evidence, real, strong, evidence for the contrary is presented and I have a pretty high bar for what I'll consider to be real strong evidence for that position. Not because I think it's impossible, but since history shows a marked lack of evidence for magic the odds seem to strongly favor the position that the supposed evidence is, in fact, bunk.
[1] Or "UAP" and "NHI" or whatever other terms they prefer but let's just be honest it's UFO's and aliens.
posted by sotonohito at 9:30 AM on July 22, 2023 [7 favorites]
unfailingly polite
I presume that is the source of the confusion. I don't think that's what's going on here, but at a certain point it's probably best to let those with a different perspective talk without needing to reiterate the same position in response each time.
What I enjoy about all this stuff is more what it says about us than the real possibility of first contact being announced in a congressional hearing or whatever; and I would appreciate not having a couple highly motivated voices trying to constrain the topic to taking this seriously by strenuously arguing with anyone who disagrees, to the detriment of a wider ranging discussion that includes the surrounding popular culture and its history.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:45 AM on July 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
I presume that is the source of the confusion. I don't think that's what's going on here, but at a certain point it's probably best to let those with a different perspective talk without needing to reiterate the same position in response each time.
What I enjoy about all this stuff is more what it says about us than the real possibility of first contact being announced in a congressional hearing or whatever; and I would appreciate not having a couple highly motivated voices trying to constrain the topic to taking this seriously by strenuously arguing with anyone who disagrees, to the detriment of a wider ranging discussion that includes the surrounding popular culture and its history.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:45 AM on July 22, 2023 [5 favorites]
Angela Collier Phd makes some good points that are relevant to this discussion regarding evidence.. If you want a 40 deep dive into science vs crackpot and crackpot adjacent thinking.
posted by interogative mood at 9:46 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 9:46 AM on July 22, 2023 [1 favorite]
Have the discussion you want, ya know?
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:47 AM on July 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:47 AM on July 22, 2023 [3 favorites]
Skepticism is founded on implausibility. Alien life is expected to exist in the evolutionary sense, divine beings are not. If someone proposes that God exists because a few "miracles" confirm it, then we can dismiss it as the expected minuscule statistic for fortunate coincidence, and the major fail rate supports the skeptic. However, only one undisputed occurrence of alien drones is needed to confirm. Unfounded rumors don't support an improbability they exist, only of their improbability to confirm. Earth is always visible, and we've been broadcasting for over a century. The analogy that a broken clock is right twice a day supports an alien drone hypothesis, if so, but not divine miracles.
posted by Brian B. at 4:51 PM on July 22, 2023
posted by Brian B. at 4:51 PM on July 22, 2023
Earth is always visible, and we've been broadcasting for over a century.
The relevant question here is "visible to whom?"
SETI is predicated on assumed cooperation from other civilizations actively trying to be detectable, and the signals it's looking for are assumed to have been optimized for that purpose. Terrestrial broadcasts are just not like that. Taken as a whole, the incidental radio emissions from this planet are going to amount to a roar of broadband noise.
And we really haven't been roaring for very long. The only star systems even theoretically capable of receiving any human-created radio signal would have to be within a ~130ly radius, which Wolfram Alpha tells me amounts to about 6,000 stars. Even assuming SETI's rather optimistic one in a million benchmark guess for civilizations per star system, that's pushing optimism beyond reasonable bounds to my way of thinking.
posted by flabdablet at 11:21 PM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
The relevant question here is "visible to whom?"
SETI is predicated on assumed cooperation from other civilizations actively trying to be detectable, and the signals it's looking for are assumed to have been optimized for that purpose. Terrestrial broadcasts are just not like that. Taken as a whole, the incidental radio emissions from this planet are going to amount to a roar of broadband noise.
And we really haven't been roaring for very long. The only star systems even theoretically capable of receiving any human-created radio signal would have to be within a ~130ly radius, which Wolfram Alpha tells me amounts to about 6,000 stars. Even assuming SETI's rather optimistic one in a million benchmark guess for civilizations per star system, that's pushing optimism beyond reasonable bounds to my way of thinking.
posted by flabdablet at 11:21 PM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
I would appreciate not having a couple highly motivated voices trying to constrain the topic to taking this seriously by strenuously arguing with anyone who disagrees, to the detriment of a wider ranging discussion that includes the surrounding popular culture and its history
lol. the only people trying to constrain the topic are those telling people to ‘go away’ or otherwise suggesting that people with differing views should exit the thread. the bulk of my comments in the latter part of the thread have been in response to people who were, in turn, responding to me (or at least commenting on my comments, which amounts to much the same thing). among my people, we call that ‘a discussion’.
to the extent that ’arguing with those who disagree with you’ constrains the discussion, i’d point to how you and others have responded to comments expressing less skepticism than you seem to prefer, prior complaints about that, and the subsequent drop off of such comments in the thread.
no one is stopping you from having the wider range discussion you would like to have, which is on an interesting and relevant topic. feel free to kick that off, and i promise not to disagree with you about any of it.
posted by inire at 11:28 PM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
lol. the only people trying to constrain the topic are those telling people to ‘go away’ or otherwise suggesting that people with differing views should exit the thread. the bulk of my comments in the latter part of the thread have been in response to people who were, in turn, responding to me (or at least commenting on my comments, which amounts to much the same thing). among my people, we call that ‘a discussion’.
to the extent that ’arguing with those who disagree with you’ constrains the discussion, i’d point to how you and others have responded to comments expressing less skepticism than you seem to prefer, prior complaints about that, and the subsequent drop off of such comments in the thread.
no one is stopping you from having the wider range discussion you would like to have, which is on an interesting and relevant topic. feel free to kick that off, and i promise not to disagree with you about any of it.
posted by inire at 11:28 PM on July 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
If what they present as evidence is NOT something that could only support the alien explanation then what possible value is it when advancing the claim that UFO's are aliens?
because it might support alternative explanations a, b and c (one of which is aliens) and undermine alternative explanations d, e and f (none of which are aliens). as a hypothetical example, if evidence were released that clearly showed some proportion of uap reports were sightings of actual physical objects that were in fact genuinely moving in inexplicable ways, that wouldn’t only support the aliens explanation (it could also support the explanation re advanced human-developed tech, say), but it would undermine the explanation that all such reports are merely sensor anomalies / eyewitness misidentification. not determinative in either direction, but still relevant.
So if a claim lacks sufficient evidence I treat it as if it was false while acknowledging that I may well be wrong in doing so.
yes, that’s not far from my own view. i think some amount of the disagreement throughout the thread has stemmed from the absence (or rejection) of that acknowledgement.
posted by inire at 12:56 AM on July 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
because it might support alternative explanations a, b and c (one of which is aliens) and undermine alternative explanations d, e and f (none of which are aliens). as a hypothetical example, if evidence were released that clearly showed some proportion of uap reports were sightings of actual physical objects that were in fact genuinely moving in inexplicable ways, that wouldn’t only support the aliens explanation (it could also support the explanation re advanced human-developed tech, say), but it would undermine the explanation that all such reports are merely sensor anomalies / eyewitness misidentification. not determinative in either direction, but still relevant.
So if a claim lacks sufficient evidence I treat it as if it was false while acknowledging that I may well be wrong in doing so.
yes, that’s not far from my own view. i think some amount of the disagreement throughout the thread has stemmed from the absence (or rejection) of that acknowledgement.
posted by inire at 12:56 AM on July 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
The only reasonable position seems to be that claims made without evidence need to be treated as false or else we wind up drowning in nonsense.This is where I end up on the whole topic. I love the idea of aliens, but without any evidence then it seems pretty dangerous to spend time on the hypothesis when we've got climate change, increasing fascism, Covid, etc etc etc actually threatening us all. It's not that we can't entertain ourselves with a reboot of The X-Files but that US Congress spending time on it in 2023 is fucking ridiculous.
There does seem to be evidence that the military might be hiding something from Congress, but I was under the impression they do that all the time? And I don't know of any evidence that bills asking the military to disclose UAP materials would fix that problem either. I don't know what Schumer is playing at here but it's borderline offensive given the other problems on his plate.
posted by harriet vane at 5:27 AM on July 23, 2023 [8 favorites]
It seems to me that Congress is taking up this subject because it's never been easier for people with extreme viewpoints to demand that institutions respond to them, and because politicians believe that the most valuable currency they can have is people paying attention to them.
posted by box at 6:40 AM on July 23, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by box at 6:40 AM on July 23, 2023 [9 favorites]
The relevant question here is "visible to whom?"
Just the nearest drone. It would function like a autonomous bee or ant, reporting back to its owner, which might change hands over time, like any bot. It doesn't return. It's lifespan could be millions of years. Imagining a place that waits for distant signals to first send drones is a historical bias, especially with creatures inside to pilot them. The drone is a type of being, and it would no doubt be able to communicate with us as a drone, which apparently isn't difficult since primitive AI can do it. Many have wondered why the galaxy is so signal dark, and drones might explain that too.
posted by Brian B. at 7:43 AM on July 23, 2023
Just the nearest drone. It would function like a autonomous bee or ant, reporting back to its owner, which might change hands over time, like any bot. It doesn't return. It's lifespan could be millions of years. Imagining a place that waits for distant signals to first send drones is a historical bias, especially with creatures inside to pilot them. The drone is a type of being, and it would no doubt be able to communicate with us as a drone, which apparently isn't difficult since primitive AI can do it. Many have wondered why the galaxy is so signal dark, and drones might explain that too.
posted by Brian B. at 7:43 AM on July 23, 2023
I don't know what Schumer is playing at here but it's borderline offensive given the other problems on his plate.
Honoring the legacy of Harry Reid by pushing forwards his dumbest hobbyhorse or somesuch.
It might seem more harmless if you are a senior Dem and unable to see working with various screamingly insane Republicans as anything other than sensible bipartisanship.
posted by Artw at 8:00 AM on July 23, 2023 [6 favorites]
Honoring the legacy of Harry Reid by pushing forwards his dumbest hobbyhorse or somesuch.
It might seem more harmless if you are a senior Dem and unable to see working with various screamingly insane Republicans as anything other than sensible bipartisanship.
posted by Artw at 8:00 AM on July 23, 2023 [6 favorites]
WRT humanity broadcasting its existence, that's not nearly as true as we'd like to hope. Yes, we were using some kinda powerful AM and FM broadcasts back in the day, but they really weren't that powerful when taken in an interstellar communications sense of the word.
The signal gets weaker with distance, there's many strong sources of competing radio from every sun, and after just a few light years the signal is so spread out and covered up with garbage that it's indistinguishable from the cosmic noise. No one further than 10 light years away will be hearing us, and that's assuming they're using truly massive receivers and Matrioshka brains to do the processing to sort signal from noise. Realistically no one is going to be hearing us much more than 5 light years out.
Now, as Brian B points out, if someone had seeded the galaxy with Von Neumann machines and assuming 0.1 c for their top speed you'd get a Von Neumann probe in every star system in around 12 million years, which really isn't all that long in galactic scales.
Problem is, we don't see any evidence of that either. We've mapped out our system fairly well and while of course we could have missed something, we've been looking for evidence of either probes currently in system or evidence of a probe having been here at some point in the past and so far we've turned up nothing. It's another part of why they Fermi Paradox is so frustrating. We KNOW it's possible to get Von Neumann probes out there, we know there has been plenty of time for them to get around the galaxy. 12 million years ago life on Earth was mammals and birds, dinosaurs had been extinct for nearly 50 million years by then!
So where are the probes? And we don't know. Maybe they are here and just hiding really well. Maybe they skipped our system and they're everywhere else. Maybe there was one here but it got destroyed by something and we just haven't found the wreckage of it and its construction site yet.
But regardless, if something did hear our radio it would have a difficult time phoning home.
Real interstellar communications is going to take lasers so big and powerful it's mind boggling. Doable, yes, but not without BIG hardware and an equally big receiver.
posted by sotonohito at 8:32 AM on July 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
The signal gets weaker with distance, there's many strong sources of competing radio from every sun, and after just a few light years the signal is so spread out and covered up with garbage that it's indistinguishable from the cosmic noise. No one further than 10 light years away will be hearing us, and that's assuming they're using truly massive receivers and Matrioshka brains to do the processing to sort signal from noise. Realistically no one is going to be hearing us much more than 5 light years out.
Now, as Brian B points out, if someone had seeded the galaxy with Von Neumann machines and assuming 0.1 c for their top speed you'd get a Von Neumann probe in every star system in around 12 million years, which really isn't all that long in galactic scales.
Problem is, we don't see any evidence of that either. We've mapped out our system fairly well and while of course we could have missed something, we've been looking for evidence of either probes currently in system or evidence of a probe having been here at some point in the past and so far we've turned up nothing. It's another part of why they Fermi Paradox is so frustrating. We KNOW it's possible to get Von Neumann probes out there, we know there has been plenty of time for them to get around the galaxy. 12 million years ago life on Earth was mammals and birds, dinosaurs had been extinct for nearly 50 million years by then!
So where are the probes? And we don't know. Maybe they are here and just hiding really well. Maybe they skipped our system and they're everywhere else. Maybe there was one here but it got destroyed by something and we just haven't found the wreckage of it and its construction site yet.
But regardless, if something did hear our radio it would have a difficult time phoning home.
Real interstellar communications is going to take lasers so big and powerful it's mind boggling. Doable, yes, but not without BIG hardware and an equally big receiver.
posted by sotonohito at 8:32 AM on July 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
The other thing to keep in mind is that everything in the universe is moving and much of it isn’t even where we see it today or doesn’t even exist anymore. I was listening to a podcast on some James Webb telescope research where they’ve taken a picture that shows thousands of galaxies that are billions of light years away — a snapshot of the early universe. Pop over there in instantly using an FTL drive and that’s not what is there now. Even if you even zoom down to galactic scale and you don’t have to go very far before you are basically operating in the dark. All those three body problems over a 100,000 light years can produce some significant uncertainty in relative positions of stars and planets. Then there are events like we don’t know if Betelgeuse has gone supernova and won’t know until long after is goes, if it hasn’t yet.
posted by interogative mood at 11:04 AM on July 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:04 AM on July 23, 2023 [4 favorites]
Real interstellar communications is going to take lasers so big and powerful it's mind boggling. Doable, yes, but not without BIG hardware and an equally big receiver.
Mind boggling was assumed in order to travel light years to find us burning coal to power our lasers.
posted by Brian B. at 8:18 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mind boggling was assumed in order to travel light years to find us burning coal to power our lasers.
posted by Brian B. at 8:18 PM on July 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
if anyone wants to follow along with wednesday's committee hearing, it'll be livestreamed here from 10 a.m. eastern.
might be interesting if some of the more reality-based committee members turn up (believe aoc and moskowitz will be there, don't know about porter, goldman or other dems). of course paul gosar will be there as well, so we can expect at least a few moments of cask-strength lunacy.
It would function like a autonomous bee or ant, reporting back to its owner
worth noting when thinking about difficulties in communicating across light years that there's no reason why a drone would necessarily need to report back to whoever sent it out.
a human drone would be likely to do that, because reporting back would normally be the (or a) purpose in our sending it out. also, because we can't construct a drone that would autonomously do what we would want it to do when encountering a very complex situation (like first contact). one or both of those points may not apply to a non-human drone-sender.
It might seem more harmless if you are a senior Dem and unable to see working with various screamingly insane Republicans as anything other than sensible bipartisanship.
to be fair that also applies to non-senior dems (e.g. jared moskowitz working with burchett on the hearing, aoc previously working with haunted doll matt gaetz on cannabis stuff and i think something on congressional insider trading, etc.), so it may just be a point about 'politicians in general'.
posted by inire at 10:20 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
might be interesting if some of the more reality-based committee members turn up (believe aoc and moskowitz will be there, don't know about porter, goldman or other dems). of course paul gosar will be there as well, so we can expect at least a few moments of cask-strength lunacy.
It would function like a autonomous bee or ant, reporting back to its owner
worth noting when thinking about difficulties in communicating across light years that there's no reason why a drone would necessarily need to report back to whoever sent it out.
a human drone would be likely to do that, because reporting back would normally be the (or a) purpose in our sending it out. also, because we can't construct a drone that would autonomously do what we would want it to do when encountering a very complex situation (like first contact). one or both of those points may not apply to a non-human drone-sender.
It might seem more harmless if you are a senior Dem and unable to see working with various screamingly insane Republicans as anything other than sensible bipartisanship.
to be fair that also applies to non-senior dems (e.g. jared moskowitz working with burchett on the hearing, aoc previously working with haunted doll matt gaetz on cannabis stuff and i think something on congressional insider trading, etc.), so it may just be a point about 'politicians in general'.
posted by inire at 10:20 AM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
worth noting when thinking about difficulties in communicating across light years that there's no reason why a drone would necessarily need to report back to whoever sent it out.
Agreed. It could also be a simple relay method, or a quantum entanglement method using a split proton held in the drone.
If a photon is put through a "special crystal", it can be split into separate photons, he told AFP.
"They're different colors from the one you started with," Phillips said, "but because they started from one photon, they are entangled".
This is where it gets weird. If you measure one photon it instantly affects the other—no matter how far you separate them.
This is not supposed to happen. Einstein's theory of relativity says nothing can travel faster than the speed of light.
posted by Brian B. at 10:49 AM on July 24, 2023
Agreed. It could also be a simple relay method, or a quantum entanglement method using a split proton held in the drone.
If a photon is put through a "special crystal", it can be split into separate photons, he told AFP.
"They're different colors from the one you started with," Phillips said, "but because they started from one photon, they are entangled".
This is where it gets weird. If you measure one photon it instantly affects the other—no matter how far you separate them.
This is not supposed to happen. Einstein's theory of relativity says nothing can travel faster than the speed of light.
posted by Brian B. at 10:49 AM on July 24, 2023
Einstein showed Newton was wrong about gravity. Now scientists are coming for Einstein.
posted by achrise at 11:00 AM on July 24, 2023
posted by achrise at 11:00 AM on July 24, 2023
We think classical information cannot be sent faster than light using entanglement, Brian. You can teleport a quantum state using entanglement, but doing so requires you classically send a similar amount of classical information.
It's like our classical notion of knowledge propagation has flaws, not that information really moves faster than light.
posted by jeffburdges at 2:08 PM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
It's like our classical notion of knowledge propagation has flaws, not that information really moves faster than light.
posted by jeffburdges at 2:08 PM on July 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
Sciencia lux lucis. As it were.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:13 PM on July 24, 2023
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:13 PM on July 24, 2023
using a split proton held in the drone
Proton, photon, tomayto, potahto...
If you measure one photon it instantly affects the other—no matter how far you separate them.
Yeah, nah.
Measuring your nearby half of an entangled pair instantly affects the degree of confidence you can have in predicting the result of measuring the other half.
But the only way you can even find out whether the other half even still exists is to have somebody go look for it.
Remember, kids: when somebody mentions "spooky action at a distance", you say "Ruh-roh!"
posted by flabdablet at 9:38 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
Proton, photon, tomayto, potahto...
If you measure one photon it instantly affects the other—no matter how far you separate them.
Yeah, nah.
Measuring your nearby half of an entangled pair instantly affects the degree of confidence you can have in predicting the result of measuring the other half.
But the only way you can even find out whether the other half even still exists is to have somebody go look for it.
Remember, kids: when somebody mentions "spooky action at a distance", you say "Ruh-roh!"
posted by flabdablet at 9:38 PM on July 24, 2023 [6 favorites]
Newton assumed that gravity was instant but observations of the planet Mercury did not match what his equations would have predicted. Einstein solved this by showing that gravity travels at the speed of light. Newton’s equations still work in most instances as a model to explain how masses will interact. When they say Einstein proved Newton they really mean Einstein refined newtons work and expanded.
posted by interogative mood at 9:57 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 9:57 PM on July 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
The explanation for entanglement that I found helpful was to imagine a starting with a pair of cards. One has an X the other has an O. You shuffle the cards and without looking put one in an envelope and send it to a friend far away. As soon as you look at the card you kept you know what your friend has. The weird thing in quantum mechanics is they were both X and O until one is measured. It doesn’t matter though because the only way to know is to look and your friend won’t know you looked until you tell them.
posted by interogative mood at 10:09 PM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:09 PM on July 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
Remember, kids: when somebody mentions "spooky action at a distance", you say "Ruh-roh!"
Thanks for the correction, hopefully before any science projects blew up. I noticed during a search that it was only a few years between people saying that photons couldn't be split, to saying yes. The other possibility of a drone, assuming their communication problem, is that they could be scouts for an ark not far distant. The idea of home and fleet is very Star Trek, but more patriotic than practical for expansion or survival.
posted by Brian B. at 8:23 AM on July 25, 2023
Thanks for the correction, hopefully before any science projects blew up. I noticed during a search that it was only a few years between people saying that photons couldn't be split, to saying yes. The other possibility of a drone, assuming their communication problem, is that they could be scouts for an ark not far distant. The idea of home and fleet is very Star Trek, but more patriotic than practical for expansion or survival.
posted by Brian B. at 8:23 AM on July 25, 2023
One little wrinkle that, I believe, hasn't been mentioned yet is this: even if a hypothetical civilization was capable of designing self-replicating drones to explore the galaxy, those drones would have to actually be able to (a) decelerate below escape velocity in order to explore/buzz planets of a targeted system and exploit asteroids etc for replication, and then (b) accelerate itself and its newly created replicas past escape velocity in order to move on to the next set of targets.
Some of that could be done exploiting the gravity wells of planets in the system but you're not going to know the complex orbital details until you get there and can make some accurate measurements and observations. So perhaps useful for navigation in a system once there and the eventual escape from it, but probably useless for deceleration on arrival.
Which means such probes would most likely have to handle deceleration actively using their own resources. That could be a massive solar sail or deceleration burns. Either way not something that would go undetected for long. Unless you do most of it far away which would then increase travel time significantly (Think the slow crawl of the Voyager probes out of the sun's gravity well in reverse). Deceleration burns would probably be the worst choice here, courtesy of the mean old Rocket Equation and the need to carry enough fuel to decelerate the probe and the mass of the fuel it carries. Not to mention the need to refuel somehow at each stop.
My main point being we'd probably spot something like that fairly easily. And we haven't.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 12:33 PM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
Some of that could be done exploiting the gravity wells of planets in the system but you're not going to know the complex orbital details until you get there and can make some accurate measurements and observations. So perhaps useful for navigation in a system once there and the eventual escape from it, but probably useless for deceleration on arrival.
Which means such probes would most likely have to handle deceleration actively using their own resources. That could be a massive solar sail or deceleration burns. Either way not something that would go undetected for long. Unless you do most of it far away which would then increase travel time significantly (Think the slow crawl of the Voyager probes out of the sun's gravity well in reverse). Deceleration burns would probably be the worst choice here, courtesy of the mean old Rocket Equation and the need to carry enough fuel to decelerate the probe and the mass of the fuel it carries. Not to mention the need to refuel somehow at each stop.
My main point being we'd probably spot something like that fairly easily. And we haven't.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 12:33 PM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
I looooovvve the science answers, don't get me wrong at all.
But I always go with...alien life? All our assumptions are probably wrong. We're still only apes. We probably won't get it even if we're staring right at it.
posted by tiny frying pan at 2:09 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
But I always go with...alien life? All our assumptions are probably wrong. We're still only apes. We probably won't get it even if we're staring right at it.
posted by tiny frying pan at 2:09 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
My main point being we'd probably spot something like that fairly easily. And we haven't.
Ignoring for a moment that you created your own object features to detect, we humans can't even spot a large asteroid coming at us from the sun side, never mind a craft that could be millions of years advanced from us and doesn't want to be detected.
posted by Brian B. at 3:26 PM on July 25, 2023
Ignoring for a moment that you created your own object features to detect, we humans can't even spot a large asteroid coming at us from the sun side, never mind a craft that could be millions of years advanced from us and doesn't want to be detected.
posted by Brian B. at 3:26 PM on July 25, 2023
That does beg the question of how they're good enough to not be spotted there, but not good enough to avoid getting spotted in atmosphere
posted by jason_steakums at 3:40 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 3:40 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
The House Oversight page has advance transcripts of the planned statements by the three witnesses for tomorrow's hearing (which should live stream here at 10 AM Eastern):
Ryan Graves
Ryan Graves
Over time, UAP sightings became an open secret among our aircrew. They were a common occurrence, seen by most of my colleagues on radar and occasionally up close. The sightings were so frequent that they became part of daily briefs.Commander David Fravor (Ret.)
A pivotal incident occurred during an air combat training mission in Warning Area W-72, an exclusive block of airspace ten miles east of Virginia Beach. All traffic into the training area goes through a single GPS point at a set altitude. Just at the moment the two jets crossed the threshold, one of the pilots saw a dark gray cube inside of a clear sphere — motionless against the wind, fixed directly at the entry point. The jets, only 100 feet apart, were forced to take evasive action. They terminated the mission immediately and returned to base. Our squadron submitted a safety report, but there was no official acknowledgement of the incident and no further mechanism to report the sightings.
When we arrived at the location at 20,000 ft, the controller called Merge Plot, which means that our radar blip was now in the same radar resolution cell as the contact. As we looked around, we noticed some white water off our right side. The weather on the day of the incident was as close to a perfect day as you could ask, clear skies, light winds, calm seas (no whitecaps from the waves) so the white water stood out in the large blue ocean. As all 4 looked down we saw a small white Tic Tac shaped object with the longitudinal axis pointing N/S and moving very abruptly over the white water. There were no Rotors, No Rotor wash, or any visible flight control surfaces like wings. As we started a clockwise turn to observe the object, My WSO and I decided to go down to get closer and the other Aircraft stayed in High cover to observe both us and the Tic Tac. We proceeded around the circle about 90 degrees from the start of our descent and the object suddenly shifted it longitudinal axis, aligned it with my aircraft and began to climb in a clockwise climbing turn. We continued down for another 270 degrees when we made a nose low move to head to where the Tic Tac would be when we pulled nose onto the object. Our altitude at this point was approximately 15,000ft with the Tic Tac at about 12,000ft. As we pulled nose onto the object at approximately 1⁄2 of a mile with the object just left of our nose, it rapidly accelerated and disappeared right in front of our aircraft. Our wingman, roughly 8,000ft above us, also lost visual. We immediately turned to investigate the white water only to find that it was also gone. As we turned back towards our CAP point, roughly 60 miles east, the air controller let us know that the object had reappeared on the Princeton’s Aegis SPY 1 radar at our CAP point. This Tic Tac Object had just traveled 60 miles in a very short period of time (less than a minute), was far superior in performance to my brand- new F/A-18F and did not operate with any of the known aerodynamic principles that we expect for objects that fly in our atmosphere.David Grusch
My testimony is based on information I have been given by individuals with a longstanding track record of legitimacy and service to this country – many of whom also shared compelling evidence in the form of photography, official documentation, and classified oral testimony.posted by Rhaomi at 3:47 PM on July 25, 2023 [6 favorites]
I have taken every step I can to corroborate this evidence over a period of 4 years and to do my due diligence on the individuals sharing it, and it is because of these steps that I believe strongly in the importance of bringing this information before you. [...]
In the USAF, in my National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) reservist capacity, I was a member of the UAPTF from 2019-2021. I served in the NRO Operations Center on the director’s briefing staff, which included the coordination of the Presidential Daily Brief (PDB) and supporting contingency operations.
In 2019, the UAPTF director tasked me to identify all Special Access Programs & Controlled Access Programs (SAPs/CAPs) we needed to satisfy our congressionally mandated mission.
At the time, due to my extensive executive-level intelligence support duties, I was cleared to literally all relevant compartments and in a position of extreme trust in both my military and civilian capacities.
I was informed, in the course of my official duties, of a multi-decade UAP crash retrieval and reverse engineering program to which I was denied access to those additional read-on’s.
I made the decision based on the data I collected, to report this information to my superiors and multiple Inspectors General, and in effect become a whistleblower.
That does beg the question of how they're good enough to not be spotted there, but not good enough to avoid getting spotted in atmosphere
Not my take, but my dismissal. They could also have walked through the front door undetected, got noticed checking out our Navy, which needs a close look for our response. Fearless. Not a good start to a story during an intelligence briefing.
posted by Brian B. at 3:50 PM on July 25, 2023
Not my take, but my dismissal. They could also have walked through the front door undetected, got noticed checking out our Navy, which needs a close look for our response. Fearless. Not a good start to a story during an intelligence briefing.
posted by Brian B. at 3:50 PM on July 25, 2023
From Grusch's Closing Statement: (my bold)
It is my hope that the revelations we unearth through investigations of the Non-Human Reverse Engineering Programs I have reported will act as an ontological (earth-shattering) shock, a catalyst for a global reassessment of our priorities.posted by achrise at 4:43 PM on July 25, 2023
Yeah, he is totally not in the slightest interested in doing the “I’m not saying that it’s aliens” bit of “but it’s aliens”.
posted by Artw at 4:49 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:49 PM on July 25, 2023 [3 favorites]
Unclear if the pilots observed these things directly or via a camera system. The problem might be just a software issue.
posted by interogative mood at 7:48 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 7:48 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
It’s all via FLIR. There’s now an entire genre of UFO sightings that is fuzzy blobs on FLIR recordings.
posted by Artw at 7:52 PM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:52 PM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
interogative mood: "Unclear if the pilots observed these things directly or via a camera system. The problem might be just a software issue."
Artw: "It’s all via FLIR. There’s now an entire genre of UFO sightings that is fuzzy blobs on FLIR recordings."
Some pilots (Underwood, for ex) only saw it on FLIR, but the excerpt from Fravor states the "Tic Tac" object was directly observed by four pilots at a range from 20,000 feet down to less than 3,000 when they moved in to take a closer look.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:11 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
Artw: "It’s all via FLIR. There’s now an entire genre of UFO sightings that is fuzzy blobs on FLIR recordings."
Some pilots (Underwood, for ex) only saw it on FLIR, but the excerpt from Fravor states the "Tic Tac" object was directly observed by four pilots at a range from 20,000 feet down to less than 3,000 when they moved in to take a closer look.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:11 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
The House Oversight page has advance transcripts of the planned statements by the three witnesses for tomorrow's hearing
I'm too old and tired to stay in a race with these Gish Gallopers.
Wake me up if the aliens show up at the hearing (which I'm confidently predicting they won't) or if any of the Usual Suspects actually manage to achieve personal control over some amount of Congressional funding (which I'm confident is what they're there for).
posted by flabdablet at 9:13 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm too old and tired to stay in a race with these Gish Gallopers.
Wake me up if the aliens show up at the hearing (which I'm confidently predicting they won't) or if any of the Usual Suspects actually manage to achieve personal control over some amount of Congressional funding (which I'm confident is what they're there for).
posted by flabdablet at 9:13 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
For others who also prefer to follow the present Gallop at a more leisurely pace, fact-checking as we go
posted by flabdablet at 9:29 PM on July 25, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 9:29 PM on July 25, 2023
One of the FLIR botherer an absolutely has an org he’s trying to direct funding to.
If I had a guess as to what this is about I’d say it’s about yelling “secret conspiracy”, disbanding AARO with all its boring “it might be aliens, it might not” and replacing it with something mor true believer friendly so they can yell about it totally being aliens more often and get on Discovery a bunch.
posted by Artw at 9:30 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
If I had a guess as to what this is about I’d say it’s about yelling “secret conspiracy”, disbanding AARO with all its boring “it might be aliens, it might not” and replacing it with something mor true believer friendly so they can yell about it totally being aliens more often and get on Discovery a bunch.
posted by Artw at 9:30 PM on July 25, 2023 [1 favorite]
the excerpt from Fravor states the "Tic Tac" object was directly observed by four pilots at a range from 20,000 feet down to less than 3,000 when they moved in to take a closer look.
Metabunk on Tic Tac
tl;dr: most of the claims made about this need to be taken with a salt mine's worth of salt, especially the ones about unearthly degrees of acceleration which are just flat wrong.
posted by flabdablet at 9:48 PM on July 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
Metabunk on Tic Tac
tl;dr: most of the claims made about this need to be taken with a salt mine's worth of salt, especially the ones about unearthly degrees of acceleration which are just flat wrong.
posted by flabdablet at 9:48 PM on July 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
I particularly like how it’s imparted as an ominous detail that it looks like an oblong blob when pretty much anything on FLIR not in range to see it properly looks like an oblong blob.
posted by Artw at 9:57 PM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:57 PM on July 25, 2023 [4 favorites]
Key point to keep in mind about Tic Tac is that the leaked Tic Tac video was not recorded by Fravor's aircraft, but later the same day by another one. Attempts to make Fravor's recount match up point-for-point with the video are therefore going to be misleading.
posted by flabdablet at 10:20 PM on July 25, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 10:20 PM on July 25, 2023
For others who also prefer to follow the present Gallop at a more leisurely pace, fact-checking as we go
that thread's been locked, fyi. various metabunk threads on different aspects of current events are here.
posted by inire at 3:29 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
that thread's been locked, fyi. various metabunk threads on different aspects of current events are here.
posted by inire at 3:29 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
If I had a guess as to what this is about I’d say it’s about yelling “secret conspiracy”, disbanding AARO with all its boring “it might be aliens, it might not” and replacing it with something mor true believer friendly so they can yell about it totally being aliens more often and get on Discovery a bunch.
aside from the fact that aaro's existence has not notably impeded people who are inclined to yell (on tv or elsewhere) about conspiracies and aliens... if this is the intention, the current bill seems like a dreadful way to go about it. which suggests that this isn't the intention at all.
sec. 9(f)(6) of the bill - page 57 here - specifically requires the review board to brief aaro, which suggests the review board is not intended to replace aaro. it would in any case be odd for a bill co-sponsored by rubio and gillibrand to be intended to result in the disbanding of aaro (an organisation that they set up), given that they've spent the last few months pushing to ensure aaro is fully funded for fy24.)
the bill also requires the president to consider nominees for the review board recommended by various third parties, including some you could call true believers (schumer, the mysterious uap disclosure foundation that i assume will be grusch's vehicle going forward) and some you couldn't (national academy of sciences, secretary of defense), plus anyone else the president deems appropriate. nominees need to be confirmed by the senate committee on homeland security, of which the execrable josh hawley is the only member (afaik) to have said anything true believer-ish.
in tandem with the nomination / confirmation hurdles, the bill's language about nominees needing to be "impartial [...] distinguished persons of high national professional reputation [...] capable of exercising the independent and objective judgment necessary to the fulfillment of their role" and having to go through the usual security clearance procedures suggests that flaky people whose primary motivation is to get on tv are going to have a hard time being appointed to the review board - too many opportunities for their candidacy to be shot down, unless biden and a sufficient number of senate committee members are both true believers and unconcerned about optics (not a characteristic for which politicians tend to be noted).
you might expect more likely appointees to be someone on the level of, say, john brennan. i suspect someone will at some point recommend garry nolan, though i doubt he would meet the impartiality requirement. i hope someone recommends mick west, if only because i love drama...
posted by inire at 5:35 AM on July 26, 2023
aside from the fact that aaro's existence has not notably impeded people who are inclined to yell (on tv or elsewhere) about conspiracies and aliens... if this is the intention, the current bill seems like a dreadful way to go about it. which suggests that this isn't the intention at all.
sec. 9(f)(6) of the bill - page 57 here - specifically requires the review board to brief aaro, which suggests the review board is not intended to replace aaro. it would in any case be odd for a bill co-sponsored by rubio and gillibrand to be intended to result in the disbanding of aaro (an organisation that they set up), given that they've spent the last few months pushing to ensure aaro is fully funded for fy24.)
the bill also requires the president to consider nominees for the review board recommended by various third parties, including some you could call true believers (schumer, the mysterious uap disclosure foundation that i assume will be grusch's vehicle going forward) and some you couldn't (national academy of sciences, secretary of defense), plus anyone else the president deems appropriate. nominees need to be confirmed by the senate committee on homeland security, of which the execrable josh hawley is the only member (afaik) to have said anything true believer-ish.
in tandem with the nomination / confirmation hurdles, the bill's language about nominees needing to be "impartial [...] distinguished persons of high national professional reputation [...] capable of exercising the independent and objective judgment necessary to the fulfillment of their role" and having to go through the usual security clearance procedures suggests that flaky people whose primary motivation is to get on tv are going to have a hard time being appointed to the review board - too many opportunities for their candidacy to be shot down, unless biden and a sufficient number of senate committee members are both true believers and unconcerned about optics (not a characteristic for which politicians tend to be noted).
you might expect more likely appointees to be someone on the level of, say, john brennan. i suspect someone will at some point recommend garry nolan, though i doubt he would meet the impartiality requirement. i hope someone recommends mick west, if only because i love drama...
posted by inire at 5:35 AM on July 26, 2023
Luna just said it's aliens.
posted by flabdablet at 7:23 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 7:23 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Trump era has primed me to question the credentials of someone with the combination of Russian name + American flag background in Twitter profile pic. Is this Luna person legit?
On the flip side, I can't recall in years past ever hearing so much from the spokesman for the National Security Council. Multiple press conferences with John Kirby is an unusual situation, isn't it? (Unrelated to the present hearing.)
posted by emelenjr at 7:36 AM on July 26, 2023
On the flip side, I can't recall in years past ever hearing so much from the spokesman for the National Security Council. Multiple press conferences with John Kirby is an unusual situation, isn't it? (Unrelated to the present hearing.)
posted by emelenjr at 7:36 AM on July 26, 2023
Anna Paulina Luna (née Mayerhofer; born May 6, 1989) is an American politician and activist serving as the U.S. representative from Florida's 13th congressional district since 2023. - her Wikipedia page is a lot.
posted by Artw at 7:46 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:46 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
her Wikipedia page is a lot.
That was a wildly entertaining read, but yeah, if she asserted the sky is blue I'd go outside and check.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:52 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
That was a wildly entertaining read, but yeah, if she asserted the sky is blue I'd go outside and check.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:52 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
Burchett just referred to "this extraterrestrial technology".
posted by flabdablet at 8:06 AM on July 26, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 8:06 AM on July 26, 2023
Luna just asked a question that made it sound like she thinks Go Fast (the duck) and Gimbal (the jet engine flare) are the same UAP.
posted by flabdablet at 8:18 AM on July 26, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 8:18 AM on July 26, 2023
grusch says he’s named the relevant private corporations involved in reverse engineering, etc to the other congressional committees (ie in private sessions). aoc’s questions following up on that seem on point.
posted by inire at 8:33 AM on July 26, 2023
posted by inire at 8:33 AM on July 26, 2023
Yes, so far Grusch has started (under oath) that he's provided specifics regarding locations of recovered objects, involved officials, companies that have misappropriated government funds, and witnesses who have been threatened or harmed to both the Inspector General and to the Intelligence Committee in over 11 hours of testimony. Again, doesn't mean he isn't lying, but he's getting himself in rather deep if so.
posted by Rhaomi at 8:39 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Rhaomi at 8:39 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
At this point It’s going to be a major event in this thread if David Grusch lands on a specific, ever, about any event whatsoever. I wouldn’t expect to hear him buying cornflakes without him describing them as “flakes of unknown origin” purchased from “a senior official in a well known national grocery chain”.
posted by Artw at 8:43 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:43 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
Also I think he straight up says the government murdered someone to cover up UFOs?
posted by Artw at 8:44 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 8:44 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
Burlison presses Grusch for specifics, Grusch responds with wild pseudo-scientific waffle. Quelle surprise.
posted by flabdablet at 8:51 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 8:51 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
Grusch just grooving on "I can't discuss that in public". He does this I Am A Very Serious Person look every time he gets to say that.
posted by flabdablet at 9:13 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 9:13 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
Luna is absolutely determined to make Grusch say it's aliens.
posted by flabdablet at 9:14 AM on July 26, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 9:14 AM on July 26, 2023
how would you expect grusch to respond to a question in a public hearing if the answer would require disclosing classified information?
that’s a genuine question, not a rhetorical one.
posted by inire at 9:23 AM on July 26, 2023
that’s a genuine question, not a rhetorical one.
posted by inire at 9:23 AM on July 26, 2023
Frevor just advised potential civilian UAP reporters not to "make the fish too big".
Perhaps that's something you need military training for.
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on July 26, 2023
Perhaps that's something you need military training for.
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on July 26, 2023
how would you expect grusch to respond to a question in a public hearing if the answer would require disclosing classified information?
If I were in Grusch's alleged position, where all I had was information I knew I couldn't disclose in public, I wouldn't agree to be questioned at a public hearing in the first place because what's the point?
Then again, I've never really been much interested in public notoriety, and nor do I harbour any desire to be seen to be taken seriously by the US Congress.
posted by flabdablet at 9:30 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
If I were in Grusch's alleged position, where all I had was information I knew I couldn't disclose in public, I wouldn't agree to be questioned at a public hearing in the first place because what's the point?
Then again, I've never really been much interested in public notoriety, and nor do I harbour any desire to be seen to be taken seriously by the US Congress.
posted by flabdablet at 9:30 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
If I were in Grusch's alleged position, where all I had was information I knew I couldn't disclose in public, I wouldn't agree to be questioned at a public hearing in the first place because what's the point?
one obvious point (or at least one of the obvious points) would be to provide a lead-in for further questions from congress in a classified setting, while contextualising the related public actions (e.g. the schumer bill) that are intended to ultimately result in some proportion of that classified information being publicly disclosed.
also, respectfully, you didn't answer the question i asked. grusch was in a public hearing, and said he couldn't provide classified information in that venue, but could do so after in a scif. in that situation, how else would you expect him to respond?
posted by inire at 9:36 AM on July 26, 2023
one obvious point (or at least one of the obvious points) would be to provide a lead-in for further questions from congress in a classified setting, while contextualising the related public actions (e.g. the schumer bill) that are intended to ultimately result in some proportion of that classified information being publicly disclosed.
also, respectfully, you didn't answer the question i asked. grusch was in a public hearing, and said he couldn't provide classified information in that venue, but could do so after in a scif. in that situation, how else would you expect him to respond?
posted by inire at 9:36 AM on July 26, 2023
Inire - I don’t think anyone is finding Grusch saying nothing of worth surprising or unexpected, it was pretty clearly the format of the event from the start.
posted by Artw at 9:41 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 9:41 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
Dodging the juiciest questions with "tHat'S cLasSiFieD" would be a lot more eye-rolling if it weren't immediately followed up by "I have a list of names and locations I can happily provide in private" or better, "I've already provided the specifics under oath to the IG and the Intel Committee." The fact that he's making serious allegations of embezzlement, malfeasance, and physical harm in a secure setting under penalty of perjury is striking.
Also, as obviously non-credible as Gaetz and Luna are, it should be noted that the hearing also featured questioning from folks like Jamie Raskin and AOC, who took the topic plenty seriously.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:42 AM on July 26, 2023
Also, as obviously non-credible as Gaetz and Luna are, it should be noted that the hearing also featured questioning from folks like Jamie Raskin and AOC, who took the topic plenty seriously.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:42 AM on July 26, 2023
how else would you expect him to respond?
Much as he did.
Since nothing of substance was raised nor resolved, watching the faces play their little games of I Am A Serious Player was the best part of that whole farce for me.
I also think it's hilarious that a proceeding that opened with so much motherhood and apple pie about We Need To Stop Hiding Things From Americans is going to come down to a bunch of true believers muttering to each other under the Cone Of Silence.
posted by flabdablet at 9:43 AM on July 26, 2023 [4 favorites]
Much as he did.
Since nothing of substance was raised nor resolved, watching the faces play their little games of I Am A Serious Player was the best part of that whole farce for me.
I also think it's hilarious that a proceeding that opened with so much motherhood and apple pie about We Need To Stop Hiding Things From Americans is going to come down to a bunch of true believers muttering to each other under the Cone Of Silence.
posted by flabdablet at 9:43 AM on July 26, 2023 [4 favorites]
Private clown show in the SCIF!
posted by Artw at 9:46 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:46 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
folks like Jamie Raskin and AOC, who took the topic plenty seriously
What both those people appeared to be taking seriously was procedural flaws in Congressional oversight as a thing in and of themselves, much as they have often done regardless of the specific topic of the day.
I'll bet you a dollar that AOC doesn't end up scoring an invitation to the upcoming SCP Foundation shindig.
posted by flabdablet at 9:48 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
What both those people appeared to be taking seriously was procedural flaws in Congressional oversight as a thing in and of themselves, much as they have often done regardless of the specific topic of the day.
I'll bet you a dollar that AOC doesn't end up scoring an invitation to the upcoming SCP Foundation shindig.
posted by flabdablet at 9:48 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don’t think anyone is finding Grusch saying nothing of worth surprising or unexpected, it was pretty clearly the format of the event from the start.
ah, perhaps i misunderstood your cornflakes comment, and the various comments prior to the hearing (not necessarily yours) criticising the lack of public specifics from grusch.
there has been a tendency to point to that lack, both in his interviews and this hearing, as somehow undermining his credibility or the relevance of this entire process. that suggested to me that the people making those arguments would expect him to do something different if he really were an honest broker, if what he's saying were really true, etc.
if they don't expect that, it's hard to see why they see the lack of public specifics to date as relevant to his credibility or the rest of this process.
I'll bet you a dollar that AOC doesn't end up scoring an invitation to the upcoming SCP Foundation shindig.
i'll take that bet. seems unlikely given her question about where to look next and his offer to answer that in a scif, no?
posted by inire at 9:55 AM on July 26, 2023
ah, perhaps i misunderstood your cornflakes comment, and the various comments prior to the hearing (not necessarily yours) criticising the lack of public specifics from grusch.
there has been a tendency to point to that lack, both in his interviews and this hearing, as somehow undermining his credibility or the relevance of this entire process. that suggested to me that the people making those arguments would expect him to do something different if he really were an honest broker, if what he's saying were really true, etc.
if they don't expect that, it's hard to see why they see the lack of public specifics to date as relevant to his credibility or the rest of this process.
I'll bet you a dollar that AOC doesn't end up scoring an invitation to the upcoming SCP Foundation shindig.
i'll take that bet. seems unlikely given her question about where to look next and his offer to answer that in a scif, no?
posted by inire at 9:55 AM on July 26, 2023
It is reasonable for these members of Congress to have a private, classified hearing to get additional details and follow up from there.
The claims that he’s subjected himself to potential charges of perjury over this testimony are probably inaccurate. His testimony amounts to things he heard from others and his suspicions of retaliation and other actions. Hard to prove any of that amounts to a lie. Even if he is wrong on the underlying facts alleged it isn’t perjury.
posted by interogative mood at 10:00 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
The claims that he’s subjected himself to potential charges of perjury over this testimony are probably inaccurate. His testimony amounts to things he heard from others and his suspicions of retaliation and other actions. Hard to prove any of that amounts to a lie. Even if he is wrong on the underlying facts alleged it isn’t perjury.
posted by interogative mood at 10:00 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
it's hard to see why they see the lack of public specifics to date as relevant to his credibility
It's not about the jokes, it's the way he tells them.
posted by flabdablet at 10:09 AM on July 26, 2023
It's not about the jokes, it's the way he tells them.
posted by flabdablet at 10:09 AM on July 26, 2023
His testimony was a highly stage managed event to publicize some claims without specifics and then point at the SCIF as where any specifics relating to the claims might be.
What’s in the SCIF? More indirection would be my bet. At most the names of some people who will give them a similar clown show shoukd they desire.
posted by Artw at 10:11 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
What’s in the SCIF? More indirection would be my bet. At most the names of some people who will give them a similar clown show shoukd they desire.
posted by Artw at 10:11 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's a win-win for him, unfortunately. No matter who goes into the SCIF and whatever they say to debunk him, the True Believers will just claim it's further evidence of a cover-up.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 10:15 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 10:15 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
What’s in the SCIF?
Only they know who they are.
There is no cabal.
posted by flabdablet at 10:15 AM on July 26, 2023
Only they know who they are.
There is no cabal.
posted by flabdablet at 10:15 AM on July 26, 2023
It’s laundering nothing to make it look like something all the way down.
Next thread like this we will hear there must be something of substance to claims of aliens because there was a hearing and acSCIF, and surely that must have been about something ?
posted by Artw at 10:18 AM on July 26, 2023 [6 favorites]
Next thread like this we will hear there must be something of substance to claims of aliens because there was a hearing and acSCIF, and surely that must have been about something ?
posted by Artw at 10:18 AM on July 26, 2023 [6 favorites]
Never attribute to aliens what can adequately be described as a clusterfuck.
posted by flabdablet at 10:22 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 10:22 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
At most the names of some people who will give them a similar clown show shoukd they desire.
what, like the private contractors who he alleges worked with government officials to withhold information from congress, and says he's named in previous private hearings and is happy to name again in the scif? difficult to see why those contractors would be on his side or otherwise motivated to say anything in support of his allegations, given those allegations were basically intended to call them out (among others) and schumer's bill looks to be intended to force their hand re disclosure.
It’s laundering nothing to make it look like something all the way down.
case in point re my previous comment. the lack of public specifics is, in practice, relied on to bolster the skeptical position, despite the fact that it is exactly what you would expect to happen if there were 'something' (as well as what you would expect if there were, in fact, nothing). in reality, it's not dispositive either way at this point.
posted by inire at 10:26 AM on July 26, 2023
what, like the private contractors who he alleges worked with government officials to withhold information from congress, and says he's named in previous private hearings and is happy to name again in the scif? difficult to see why those contractors would be on his side or otherwise motivated to say anything in support of his allegations, given those allegations were basically intended to call them out (among others) and schumer's bill looks to be intended to force their hand re disclosure.
It’s laundering nothing to make it look like something all the way down.
case in point re my previous comment. the lack of public specifics is, in practice, relied on to bolster the skeptical position, despite the fact that it is exactly what you would expect to happen if there were 'something' (as well as what you would expect if there were, in fact, nothing). in reality, it's not dispositive either way at this point.
posted by inire at 10:26 AM on July 26, 2023
"It's NOT aliens" is the new "It's aliens"
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 10:31 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 10:31 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
the lack of public specifics is, in practice, relied on to bolster the skeptical position
All that's required to change a skeptic's mind on the extremely probable falsehood of an extraordinary claim is some appropriately extraordinary evidence.
I have encountered no evidence that would reasonably support the extraordinary claim that all of the anomalous observations made from high-speed aircraft have the same underlying cause, which is aliens (or "non-human intelligences" as the currently fashionable euphemism would have it). Therefore I continue to treat that claim as false. No "bolstering" is required or involved.
Watching self-important people act self-important as they demand answers that don't exist is evidence for a longstanding and completely ordinary claim that human beings are restless monkeys in tall hats. Which is amusing. Which is why I brought up Grusch's apparent delight at being In The Know.
Which I don't think he is, but I do think he thinks he is.
I also agree that the main purpose of this hearing was to try to wash some nothing off a nothingburger.
posted by flabdablet at 10:57 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
All that's required to change a skeptic's mind on the extremely probable falsehood of an extraordinary claim is some appropriately extraordinary evidence.
I have encountered no evidence that would reasonably support the extraordinary claim that all of the anomalous observations made from high-speed aircraft have the same underlying cause, which is aliens (or "non-human intelligences" as the currently fashionable euphemism would have it). Therefore I continue to treat that claim as false. No "bolstering" is required or involved.
Watching self-important people act self-important as they demand answers that don't exist is evidence for a longstanding and completely ordinary claim that human beings are restless monkeys in tall hats. Which is amusing. Which is why I brought up Grusch's apparent delight at being In The Know.
Which I don't think he is, but I do think he thinks he is.
I also agree that the main purpose of this hearing was to try to wash some nothing off a nothingburger.
posted by flabdablet at 10:57 AM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
in reality, it's not dispositive either way at this point.
Faking the appearance that there is evidence is in fact subtly different from there being no evidence, in a that an attempt to mislead has been made.
posted by Artw at 10:57 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
Faking the appearance that there is evidence is in fact subtly different from there being no evidence, in a that an attempt to mislead has been made.
posted by Artw at 10:57 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
If there were something I would expect public revelations like we saw in the 1970s with the Church Committee. If there is silence it it more likely because there isn't anything there. Members of Congress enjoy protection under the speech and debate clause of the constitution. They can announce whatever they've learned in a floor speech in congress and they can't be prosecuted.
posted by interogative mood at 10:58 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:58 AM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
Faking the appearance that there is evidence is in fact subtly different from there being no evidence, in a that an attempt to mislead has been made.
yes, hence my comment that the lack of specifics is not dispositive either way at this point, because we have no evidence at this point to support a conclusion that grusch (or indeed anyone else) is 'faking' the appearance that there is evidence. you can believe that he's faking that, of course, but it would be a belief currently unsupported by evidence (which would be ironic).
posted by inire at 11:28 AM on July 26, 2023
yes, hence my comment that the lack of specifics is not dispositive either way at this point, because we have no evidence at this point to support a conclusion that grusch (or indeed anyone else) is 'faking' the appearance that there is evidence. you can believe that he's faking that, of course, but it would be a belief currently unsupported by evidence (which would be ironic).
posted by inire at 11:28 AM on July 26, 2023
If you ignore the history of aliens not being real, I guess there's no evidence one way or the other. I mean, seriously? You don't think there's *any* reasons why he might be lying or exaggerating?
posted by sagc at 11:34 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by sagc at 11:34 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
But, as you pointed out, he was never going to deliver any specifics. This was always a performance intend to make it look like something had been revealed when in fact it hadn’t. It’s a show.
Looking at headlines it worked, too.
posted by Artw at 11:36 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
Looking at headlines it worked, too.
posted by Artw at 11:36 AM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
All that's required to change a skeptic's mind on the extremely probable falsehood of an extraordinary claim is some appropriately extraordinary evidence.
I have encountered no evidence that would reasonably support the extraordinary claim that all of the anomalous observations made from high-speed aircraft have the same underlying cause, which is aliens (or "non-human intelligences" as the currently fashionable euphemism would have it). Therefore I continue to treat that claim as false. No "bolstering" is required or involved.
to be fair, if various others holding the skeptical position had their way, you would never encounter such evidence - even if it existed - because no hearings into the topic would be held, no legislation seeking disclosure of such evidence would be passed, and anyone purporting to offer such evidence or to be willing to make it available would be dismissed out of hand.
i also note that the claim you describe here is not a claim that has been made by grusch, or - as far as i know - anyone else, so whether any of us treat it as false (as i would also be inclined to) is rather beside the point.
Grusch just grooving on "I can't discuss that in public". He does this I Am A Very Serious Person look every time he gets to say that. [...] Grusch's apparent delight at being In The Know.
literally the equivalent of those articles in celebrity gossip magazines that diagnose the collapse of someone's marriage based on their expression in a paparazzi photo.
They can announce whatever they've learned in a floor speech in congress and they can't be prosecuted.
true, but as i understand it they can be expelled from congress. not to mention the fact that disclosing classified information - particularly if it is relevant to national security, as is the suggestion here - is a quick way to ensure that congress's access to said information is restricted in future. some interesting (if old) comment on that in connection with the nsa surveillance stuff here.
posted by inire at 11:36 AM on July 26, 2023
I have encountered no evidence that would reasonably support the extraordinary claim that all of the anomalous observations made from high-speed aircraft have the same underlying cause, which is aliens (or "non-human intelligences" as the currently fashionable euphemism would have it). Therefore I continue to treat that claim as false. No "bolstering" is required or involved.
to be fair, if various others holding the skeptical position had their way, you would never encounter such evidence - even if it existed - because no hearings into the topic would be held, no legislation seeking disclosure of such evidence would be passed, and anyone purporting to offer such evidence or to be willing to make it available would be dismissed out of hand.
i also note that the claim you describe here is not a claim that has been made by grusch, or - as far as i know - anyone else, so whether any of us treat it as false (as i would also be inclined to) is rather beside the point.
Grusch just grooving on "I can't discuss that in public". He does this I Am A Very Serious Person look every time he gets to say that. [...] Grusch's apparent delight at being In The Know.
literally the equivalent of those articles in celebrity gossip magazines that diagnose the collapse of someone's marriage based on their expression in a paparazzi photo.
They can announce whatever they've learned in a floor speech in congress and they can't be prosecuted.
true, but as i understand it they can be expelled from congress. not to mention the fact that disclosing classified information - particularly if it is relevant to national security, as is the suggestion here - is a quick way to ensure that congress's access to said information is restricted in future. some interesting (if old) comment on that in connection with the nsa surveillance stuff here.
posted by inire at 11:36 AM on July 26, 2023
I haven't had a chance to catch up on everything today, but when the cube-in-a-sphere style sightings came up, did anyone ask about radar reflector balloons?
posted by jason_steakums at 11:47 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by jason_steakums at 11:47 AM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
If you ignore the history of aliens not being real, I guess there's no evidence one way or the other. I mean, seriously?
i'll spare everyone the repetition of points already made (as various people got exercised about that) and refer you to my earlier comments on this.
You don't think there's *any* reasons why he might be lying or exaggerating?
that doesn't follow from the previous. but to engage with it anyway - i don't rule out the possibility that he's lying or deliberately exaggerating, but it seems the least plausible of the various ways in which this might turn out to be bullshit. to my mind, it would be more plausible that he's been given information that he sincerely believes is as described, but that - if you traced it all the way back to its original source - you would find is false or has been misinterpreted or exaggerated along the way.
I haven't had a chance to catch up on everything today, but when the cube-in-a-sphere style sightings came up, did anyone ask about radar reflector balloons?
ha, that sprang to my mind as well! - no-one brought it up, but to the extent any of those sightings don't involve apparently physics-defying elements or other behaviour inconsistent with a balloon, it seems like a good candidate to add to the list of mundane explanations.
posted by inire at 11:55 AM on July 26, 2023
i'll spare everyone the repetition of points already made (as various people got exercised about that) and refer you to my earlier comments on this.
You don't think there's *any* reasons why he might be lying or exaggerating?
that doesn't follow from the previous. but to engage with it anyway - i don't rule out the possibility that he's lying or deliberately exaggerating, but it seems the least plausible of the various ways in which this might turn out to be bullshit. to my mind, it would be more plausible that he's been given information that he sincerely believes is as described, but that - if you traced it all the way back to its original source - you would find is false or has been misinterpreted or exaggerated along the way.
I haven't had a chance to catch up on everything today, but when the cube-in-a-sphere style sightings came up, did anyone ask about radar reflector balloons?
ha, that sprang to my mind as well! - no-one brought it up, but to the extent any of those sightings don't involve apparently physics-defying elements or other behaviour inconsistent with a balloon, it seems like a good candidate to add to the list of mundane explanations.
posted by inire at 11:55 AM on July 26, 2023
I could have done with more cheese on the nothingburger, it peaked early with the OUR WEAPONS ARE USELESS AGAINST THEM bit.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:52 PM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:52 PM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
As a skeptic I’m not opposed to hearings or legislation to investigate these incidents. Even if it is just pilots and others being being mislead by FLIR or other sensors it should be investigated and dealt with.
posted by interogative mood at 1:06 PM on July 26, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 1:06 PM on July 26, 2023
when the cube-in-a-sphere style sightings came up, did anyone ask about radar reflector balloons?
Of course.
posted by flabdablet at 1:19 PM on July 26, 2023
Of course.
posted by flabdablet at 1:19 PM on July 26, 2023
You can even buy one that definitely looks like an alien.
posted by flabdablet at 1:30 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 1:30 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
Committee members asked some great questions that I've been wondering about, narrowing down the possibilities. One asked if it was a situation where agency A is working on new tech. Agency B encounters it, but doesn't know that it's agency A's tech and therefore assumes it's non-human. That "one hand doesn't know what the other is doing" situation is what I conceded was probably the most likely scenario, and that the pilots were encountering manmade (and terrestrial) tech that they didn't have the clearance to know existed.
I retract my earlier insinuation about Luna being Russian because she's obviously not, and that's something I could have looked up myself. It's hard not to give people with American flags in their Twitter profile pics a ton of sideeye. It's hard not to give just Twitter a ton of sideeye these days.
I also feel weird about nodding in agreement with the likes of Tim Burchett and Matt Gaetz.
posted by emelenjr at 1:31 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
I retract my earlier insinuation about Luna being Russian because she's obviously not, and that's something I could have looked up myself. It's hard not to give people with American flags in their Twitter profile pics a ton of sideeye. It's hard not to give just Twitter a ton of sideeye these days.
I also feel weird about nodding in agreement with the likes of Tim Burchett and Matt Gaetz.
posted by emelenjr at 1:31 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
Well that was really encouraging about the priorities of our elected officials in these times. Good thing they weren't digging into why ocean temperatures are setting new records, or whatever.
What a clown show. A goddamn clown show.
posted by spitbull at 2:32 PM on July 26, 2023 [7 favorites]
What a clown show. A goddamn clown show.
posted by spitbull at 2:32 PM on July 26, 2023 [7 favorites]
UFO hearing key takeaways: cover-up claims and Pentagon denials
A decent point:
Not everyone was convinced by Grusch’s testimony. At times, he appeared less forthcoming under oath than he had been in media interviews.
In the interview with NewsNation in June, Grusch claimed the government had “very large, like a football-field kind of size” alien craft, while he told Le Parisien, a French newspaper, that the US had possession of a “bell-like craft” which Benito Mussolini’s government had recovered in northern Italy in 1933.
On Wednesday, he was reluctant to go into details on those claims, citing issues of security.
Garrett Graff, a journalist and historian who is writing a book on the government’s hunt for UFOs, tweeted: “Very interesting to me that Dave Grusch is unwilling to state and repeat under oath at the #UFOHearings the most explosive – and outlandish – of his claims from his NewsNation interview. He seems to be very carefully dancing around repeating them.”
He’d probably claim security reasons or w/e there as well but was happy to make some highly specific and weird claims to friendly media but not before congress?
posted by Artw at 3:14 PM on July 26, 2023 [6 favorites]
The idea that the US government has been hiding Mussolini's flying saucer for ninety years is batboy-level tabloid nonsense, and I don't think we need to revise our credibility estimates of the guy making such claims just because he maneuvered himself in front of Congress.
posted by Pyry at 3:37 PM on July 26, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 3:37 PM on July 26, 2023 [13 favorites]
But surely the institution that held hearings on a laptop that maybe Hunter Biden had looked at, Benghazi, Satanic Ritual Abuse, Ebonics, Frank Zappa’s music, Communism in Hollywood, etc, etc., etc. would never waste it’s time on something that wasn’t important to America’s actual national interests.
Would it?
posted by Gygesringtone at 5:12 PM on July 26, 2023 [10 favorites]
Would it?
posted by Gygesringtone at 5:12 PM on July 26, 2023 [10 favorites]
OK, so I'd like to verify, just to reassure faith in human credulity and foolishness, that despite their big dramatic reveal of "the truth" turning out to be just more bullshit from the same batch of con artists, not one single UFO believer has changed their mind, right?
Weeks of buildup, all the promises that THIS TIME we'd really get the truth, all the promises of declassifying the important stuff, all turned out to be nothing but filthy lies told by filthy liars. Nothing got declassified, and the smug lying asshole pulled the same trick he always does where he says he's got the evidence but it's classified.
THEN WHAT WAS THE FUCKING POINT?
Seriously, they told us the whole point of this circus of bullshit and lies was to declassify stuff. And yet when pressed for real evidence, like always, the evil lying filth just repeated his bullshit about how he knows the truth but can't tell us peons because its classified.
But don't worry, not one single believer will admit they've been bamboozled. Nope, they'll all nod sagely and say that the transparent con man yammering about the evidence being classified was telling the truth.
I despair.
posted by sotonohito at 6:05 PM on July 26, 2023 [11 favorites]
Weeks of buildup, all the promises that THIS TIME we'd really get the truth, all the promises of declassifying the important stuff, all turned out to be nothing but filthy lies told by filthy liars. Nothing got declassified, and the smug lying asshole pulled the same trick he always does where he says he's got the evidence but it's classified.
THEN WHAT WAS THE FUCKING POINT?
Seriously, they told us the whole point of this circus of bullshit and lies was to declassify stuff. And yet when pressed for real evidence, like always, the evil lying filth just repeated his bullshit about how he knows the truth but can't tell us peons because its classified.
But don't worry, not one single believer will admit they've been bamboozled. Nope, they'll all nod sagely and say that the transparent con man yammering about the evidence being classified was telling the truth.
I despair.
posted by sotonohito at 6:05 PM on July 26, 2023 [11 favorites]
The idea that the US government has been hiding Mussolini's flying saucer for ninety years is batboy-level tabloid nonsense
They had to hide it because they couldn't get it to start. Italian cars are notorious for electrical system issues.
posted by flabdablet at 8:10 PM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
They had to hide it because they couldn't get it to start. Italian cars are notorious for electrical system issues.
posted by flabdablet at 8:10 PM on July 26, 2023 [5 favorites]
Dang, the summer of 2023 includes Barbenheimer and non-human biologicals. Holy SpaceTime Continuum! Whoda thunk!? What fun!
posted by nickyskye at 8:52 PM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by nickyskye at 8:52 PM on July 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
I despair.
humans have gone down the stairs
our mission is complete
posted by flabdablet at 10:08 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
humans have gone down the stairs
our mission is complete
posted by flabdablet at 10:08 PM on July 26, 2023 [2 favorites]
What's all this then? Nothing was revealed, nothing was declassified, nothing actually happened, it was an entirely pointless and substance-free event?
*surprised Pikachu face*
posted by Pyrogenesis at 11:26 PM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
*surprised Pikachu face*
posted by Pyrogenesis at 11:26 PM on July 26, 2023 [3 favorites]
I for one came away from this fiasco even more convinced that UFO believers are delusional fools or self-aware grifters or some combination thereof, and always have been.
So I guess their big public moment worked? They got their press, they got us talking about it, the pump is primed for the next phase of grinding out the grift.
Now they slither back back to the conspiracy theory/terminally online trenches for 10 years until it all comes back around again in 2035, as it always does.
It's a religion. Not only does it not need any confirmable facts as evidence, the ufo/aliens (sorry, UAP/NHI lol) discourse demands we believe personal anecdotes and accept lack of evidence as proof of conspiracy, not what it patently is: lack of any proof for obviously ridiculous and contradictory assertions of faith. All these decades in and we are still hearing about government coverups and staring at grainy meaningless images that could obviously be many well explained things, and we still don't have flying cars or a single clear photograph.
The degree of the religious fervor and disdain for heretical demanders of proof held by the believers, even in this thread, is the tell.
I'm always reminded of the famous theodicy quip about belief in "god," namely if your god is all powerful but still allows innocents to suffer every day, s/he's an asshole. And if s/he can't stop it, s/he's powerless. So either way, why should I worship her/him/them again?
Modified, either the aliens are so amazingly technologically sophisticated that a billion humans with HD cameras have yet to get a single clear photograph of one of them even though they're all over the place zipping around and scaring our pilots, and they can fly through dimensions of time across distances we can't even conceptualize using technology we can't even imagine, but somehow have available to "reverse engineer," or they're such bumbling galactic idiots that they routinely travel across thousands of light years of distance, but somehow once they're here they manage to crash into this minor rocky planet and get captured.
As with all believers, my offer stands: show me intersubjectively comfirmable proof and I'll eat my words. But if you spend most of your energy explaining why the proof is being hidden from me, I'm gonna assume you're about as credible as an Amway salesman or a priest.
posted by spitbull at 3:48 AM on July 27, 2023 [14 favorites]
So I guess their big public moment worked? They got their press, they got us talking about it, the pump is primed for the next phase of grinding out the grift.
Now they slither back back to the conspiracy theory/terminally online trenches for 10 years until it all comes back around again in 2035, as it always does.
It's a religion. Not only does it not need any confirmable facts as evidence, the ufo/aliens (sorry, UAP/NHI lol) discourse demands we believe personal anecdotes and accept lack of evidence as proof of conspiracy, not what it patently is: lack of any proof for obviously ridiculous and contradictory assertions of faith. All these decades in and we are still hearing about government coverups and staring at grainy meaningless images that could obviously be many well explained things, and we still don't have flying cars or a single clear photograph.
The degree of the religious fervor and disdain for heretical demanders of proof held by the believers, even in this thread, is the tell.
I'm always reminded of the famous theodicy quip about belief in "god," namely if your god is all powerful but still allows innocents to suffer every day, s/he's an asshole. And if s/he can't stop it, s/he's powerless. So either way, why should I worship her/him/them again?
Modified, either the aliens are so amazingly technologically sophisticated that a billion humans with HD cameras have yet to get a single clear photograph of one of them even though they're all over the place zipping around and scaring our pilots, and they can fly through dimensions of time across distances we can't even conceptualize using technology we can't even imagine, but somehow have available to "reverse engineer," or they're such bumbling galactic idiots that they routinely travel across thousands of light years of distance, but somehow once they're here they manage to crash into this minor rocky planet and get captured.
As with all believers, my offer stands: show me intersubjectively comfirmable proof and I'll eat my words. But if you spend most of your energy explaining why the proof is being hidden from me, I'm gonna assume you're about as credible as an Amway salesman or a priest.
posted by spitbull at 3:48 AM on July 27, 2023 [14 favorites]
From the autotranscript (unedited)
posted by adept256 at 4:43 AM on July 27, 2023 [9 favorites]
- we are billions of light years away from any any other system and the concept that an alien species that's technologically advanced enough to travel billions of light years gets here and somehow is incompetent enough to not survive Earth or crashes is something that I find a little bit far-fetched and with that being said you have mentioned that there's interdimensional potential could you expound on that?I've been in this exact bong circle.
- oh yeah to answer your first question and you know I'm here as a fact witness an expert but I will give you a theoretical framework at least to work off to kind of expose uh crashes uh regardless of uh you know your level of sentience right you know planes crash cars crash and number of sorties what however High a small percentage are going to end in you know Mission failure if you will as we say in the in the air force uh and then in terms of uh multi-dimensionality that kind of thing the the framework that I'm familiar with for example is something called the holographic principle uh both uh it's it derives itself from general relativity and quantum mechanics and that is if you want to imagine uh 3D objects such as yourself casting a shadow onto a 2d surface that's the holographic principle so you can be projected quasi-projected from higher dimensional space to lower dimensional it's a scientific Trope that you can actually cross literally as far as I understand but there's probably guys with phds that we can probably but you have not seen any documentation that that's what's occurring uh only a theoretical framework discussion okay?
- um okay
posted by adept256 at 4:43 AM on July 27, 2023 [9 favorites]
Also "non human biologics" is the phrase of the day apparently, even though it could well refer to a rotting squirrel carcass on a pile of dead leaves.
posted by spitbull at 5:15 AM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by spitbull at 5:15 AM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
Strangely, I thought it would be possible for people to not believe this, talk about it, but not insult fellow Mefites, but here we are.
I'm not even gunning hard for the existence of anything, but please cool it with the "fools" kind of talk.
not one single UFO believer has changed their mind, right?
Impossible to know, right?
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:16 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm not even gunning hard for the existence of anything, but please cool it with the "fools" kind of talk.
not one single UFO believer has changed their mind, right?
Impossible to know, right?
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:16 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
in terms of uh multi-dimensionality that kind of thing the the framework that I'm familiar with for example is something called the holographic principle uh both uh it's it derives itself from general relativity and quantum mechanics and that is if you want to imagine uh 3D objects such as yourself casting a shadow onto a 2d surface that's the holographic principle so you can be projected quasi-projected from higher dimensional space to lower dimensional it's a scientific Trope that you can actually cross literally as far as I understand
I also read that Tim Powers book, pretty good
posted by jason_steakums at 5:47 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
I also read that Tim Powers book, pretty good
posted by jason_steakums at 5:47 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
Also "non human biologics" is the phrase of the day apparently, even though it could well refer to a rotting squirrel carcass on a pile of dead leaves.
“I’m saying it’s aliens, but for rhetorical purposes I can come back later and say I didn’t say it was aliens.”
posted by Artw at 6:24 AM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
“I’m saying it’s aliens, but for rhetorical purposes I can come back later and say I didn’t say it was aliens.”
posted by Artw at 6:24 AM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
And not a single UFO believer changed their mind.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 7:12 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Pyrogenesis at 7:12 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
NOT A SINGLE ONE I TALKED TO ALL OF THEM
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:38 AM on July 27, 2023
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:38 AM on July 27, 2023
We get it, you think people are being too mean to people who believe in aliens.
However, it's not unreasonable to expect that more people would be seeing this for the conspiratorial, vague nothingburger that it is, given that there was a whole hearing that repeated existing claims and walked some back. The fact that the response to *any* information about UAPs, be it "evidence" or debunking, is used to retrench the conspiracy is notable.
posted by sagc at 7:48 AM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
However, it's not unreasonable to expect that more people would be seeing this for the conspiratorial, vague nothingburger that it is, given that there was a whole hearing that repeated existing claims and walked some back. The fact that the response to *any* information about UAPs, be it "evidence" or debunking, is used to retrench the conspiracy is notable.
posted by sagc at 7:48 AM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
NOT A SINGLE ONE I TALKED TO ALL OF THEM
Not a single UFO believer has ever drawn a conclusion from limited data.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 8:03 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not a single UFO believer has ever drawn a conclusion from limited data.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 8:03 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
We get it, you think people are being too mean to people who believe in aliens.
Calling people names is what I was objecting to yes, i think that's far too mean and way unnecessary. It's been happening over and over and when people can't make their point without pointing and jeering, it is disappointing to me. This was a great thread except for all of that.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:18 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
Calling people names is what I was objecting to yes, i think that's far too mean and way unnecessary. It's been happening over and over and when people can't make their point without pointing and jeering, it is disappointing to me. This was a great thread except for all of that.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:18 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
rotting squirrel carcass on a pile of dead leaves.
Well, if you've never seen a rotting squirrel carcass instantly achieve mach 2 with no discernable means of propulsion, then how do you know it can't?
GOTTEM! take that science schmucks
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:28 AM on July 27, 2023 [6 favorites]
Well, if you've never seen a rotting squirrel carcass instantly achieve mach 2 with no discernable means of propulsion, then how do you know it can't?
GOTTEM! take that science schmucks
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:28 AM on July 27, 2023 [6 favorites]
I am going to feel so smudge and arrogant when I get high on space cannabis with the water aliens and they are explaining to me the best way to tie shoelaces.
You folks are going to look so stupid with your laces all wrong.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 8:40 AM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
You folks are going to look so stupid with your laces all wrong.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 8:40 AM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
Unexplored fourth quadrant where aliens are real AND the apparent grifters are grifters, and their scam does not actually intersect with any aliens at all.
posted by Artw at 9:21 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:21 AM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
The aliens somehow managed to find us from billions light years away. That seems like an impossible needle in a haystack situation even if they had FTL capabilities. Consider in a radius of a few billion light years how many galaxies are there comprised of how many stars and planets. If aliens exist but are billions of light years away then we are functionally alone in the universe. The universe will be over long before we ever find each other even with FTL technology.
posted by interogative mood at 9:32 AM on July 27, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 9:32 AM on July 27, 2023
Well, you know, magic etc… honestly I think the “aliens exist” row is far more likely the “these grifters are not grifters” column.
posted by Artw at 9:39 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 9:39 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
Weeks of buildup, all the promises that THIS TIME we'd really get the truth, all the promises of declassifying the important stuff, all turned out to be nothing but filthy lies told by filthy liars. Nothing got declassified, and the smug lying asshole pulled the same trick he always does where he says he's got the evidence but it's classified.
THEN WHAT WAS THE FUCKING POINT?
Seriously, they told us the whole point of this circus of bullshit and lies was to declassify stuff. And yet when pressed for real evidence, like always, the evil lying filth just repeated his bullshit about how he knows the truth but can't tell us peons because its classified.
i have no idea where you or anyone else got the impression that grusch was going to snowden himself in a public hearing and start dumping classified information in front of the tv cameras (shortly before being arrested and dragged offstage, presumably). for anyone who was paying a modicum of attention, the expectation was that grusch would say much of what he'd said publicly beforehand, possibly with some additional comments or different angles, but would not reveal classified information. i even pointed that out before the hearing, for the benefit of those who hadn't paid attention.
the declassification is the intended result of schumer's bill, not of this hearing. as is obvious, again, if you've paid any attention to the links all the way up there at the top of this post, or many of the comments between there and here. the point of the hearing is (obviously, again) to get more publicity for the claims and more interest from congress in doing something about them.
of course the reason why more publicity and congressional interest is desired is not at all obvious to those with their brains engaged - is it to fuel a grift, is it in service of a bunch of bullshit that grusch has uncritically accepted as truth, is it because ALIENS ARE REAL - but that's a slightly different question.
posted by inire at 11:44 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
THEN WHAT WAS THE FUCKING POINT?
Seriously, they told us the whole point of this circus of bullshit and lies was to declassify stuff. And yet when pressed for real evidence, like always, the evil lying filth just repeated his bullshit about how he knows the truth but can't tell us peons because its classified.
i have no idea where you or anyone else got the impression that grusch was going to snowden himself in a public hearing and start dumping classified information in front of the tv cameras (shortly before being arrested and dragged offstage, presumably). for anyone who was paying a modicum of attention, the expectation was that grusch would say much of what he'd said publicly beforehand, possibly with some additional comments or different angles, but would not reveal classified information. i even pointed that out before the hearing, for the benefit of those who hadn't paid attention.
the declassification is the intended result of schumer's bill, not of this hearing. as is obvious, again, if you've paid any attention to the links all the way up there at the top of this post, or many of the comments between there and here. the point of the hearing is (obviously, again) to get more publicity for the claims and more interest from congress in doing something about them.
of course the reason why more publicity and congressional interest is desired is not at all obvious to those with their brains engaged - is it to fuel a grift, is it in service of a bunch of bullshit that grusch has uncritically accepted as truth, is it because ALIENS ARE REAL - but that's a slightly different question.
posted by inire at 11:44 AM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
I for one came away from this fiasco even more convinced that UFO believers are delusional fools or self-aware grifters or some combination thereof, and always have been.
you interpreted information in a way that strengthened your prior beliefs? seems rigorous.
The degree of the religious fervor and disdain for heretical demanders of proof held by the believers, even in this thread, is the tell.
lol. a statement that applies to few of the comments from 'believers' (or indeed any less-than-hardcore skeptic) in this thread, and that conversely applies to really quite a substantial number of comments from said skeptics.
feel free to tot those up, using a reasonable definition of 'fervor' and 'disdain' - perhaps taking into account who is calling who 'heretical', 'fervent', 'delusional fools', 'grifters', 'slithering', 'filthy liars', or 'evil lying filth', to take a few recent examples - and let us know where you get to!
posted by inire at 11:53 AM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
you interpreted information in a way that strengthened your prior beliefs? seems rigorous.
The degree of the religious fervor and disdain for heretical demanders of proof held by the believers, even in this thread, is the tell.
lol. a statement that applies to few of the comments from 'believers' (or indeed any less-than-hardcore skeptic) in this thread, and that conversely applies to really quite a substantial number of comments from said skeptics.
feel free to tot those up, using a reasonable definition of 'fervor' and 'disdain' - perhaps taking into account who is calling who 'heretical', 'fervent', 'delusional fools', 'grifters', 'slithering', 'filthy liars', or 'evil lying filth', to take a few recent examples - and let us know where you get to!
posted by inire at 11:53 AM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
There's been some discussion of the hearing on Tildes, including this comment from a user with a background in military intelligence:
Quick context: some of y'all know I work an IC career, but I don't claim much more knowledge about this than y'all do. I have seen non-public pictures, video, and sensor data, regarding UAP events—but nothing much more enlightening than that which has been made public.posted by Rhaomi at 12:02 PM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
All I can confirm is that there is for sure something in the sky, and that people who ought to know what they are (if anyone does), don't know. I can't corroborate anything to do with NHI, underwater "craft", psionics, anti-gravity, recovered craft, communication between NHI & humans, or anything like that. Not because I'd be revealing anything classified, but because I don't fucking know anything about that. If I'd found anything, it would make my life a lot easier.
That said,
This recent news is very disturbing to me. If it weren't for some of the data I have seen, it would be very easy to dismiss this entire deal. I had dismissed it, when I was 12. But now I'm being forced to think about all of this stuff seriously for the first time in several decades, because all of these kooky fucking stories explain these unexplained orbs and whatnot. The big problem is these stories come part and parcel to alien/inter-dimensional beings, and all sorts of insanity.
Not to dismiss believers as insane, I am trying to illustrate my complex emotions.
I do generally believe that Steve Greer is full of shit.
Bob Lazar is at minimum, partially filled with shit. It gets really complicated.
Most UFO-guys are full of shit, need compassionate mental health care, or simply saw something they didn't understand—but nothing truly so difficult to explain.
Grusch is a problem.
David Grusch tells a story built on very strong foundations. By this I mean, his background & narrative are largely believable to me as a member of the IC & former member of the military. He corroborates some information that I believe is founded on some of the non-public evidence I myself have seen. I can't—with my authorities—go digging to verify his background very deeply. That's not appropriate for the role I am in. But I see no reason to doubt his backstory based on the information so far available.
His claims regarding some office, operating in complete secrecy from Congress, the DoD, and the IC-at-large, disturb me.
Our field works on clearances, and need-to-know. Often the need-to-know can be the most difficult thing to justify. It's easy to believe there are offices, or projects, with very few people working on them, and very few people outside of it having any degree of knowledge as to what they are doing. That's normal. The secrecy, and lack of verifiable leaks, are honestly the one part of the story I have the least problem just accepting.
But someone is supposed to know, at least on a general level. Leadership, Congress, somebody. An elected official, or someone authorized to brief an elected official, at least.
If nobody knows, outside of this office, the true nature of what is actually going on, that carries with it some very dangerous accusations about the current functioning and structure of the Intelligence Community, and the Department of Defense. This isn't new territory for the conspiratorially-minded members of the general public, but for someone on the inside—especially in the modern day—it's very serious. I've been struggling for about a week trying to put exactly how I feel into words, but I just can't.
This seems to be what the motivation behind Senior DoD, Senior IC, and Congresspersons apparent scrutiny over all of this. If Grusch's allegation is true, than this office is operating outside of the law, and outside out Congressional authority.
I'm not sure what I think about Grusch's allegations about any of the high strangeness stuff. If I take him at his word, and only combine that with the UAP data I've seen, that implies... well it implies that if you take it seriously, then your reputation as a serious person is over.
I suppose—suppose—that the general story he tells is not immediately falsifiable. A NHI could be here, they could be technological, and this technology could potentially function. The unknown parts of physics hold the potential, sure. But without physical proof this stuff is possible, it's not sensible to put much work into these particular alleged effects. That's really the key thing, I think. At this time all I have is sensor data, no entities or debris. There's some kind of anomaly, but it could just as well not be some NHI with applied-physics beyond our own. He claims the US has recovered debris, at a minimum. I would very much like to be read-on to the analyses that have surely been conducted, assuming this is true, if I can't justify physical access to any alleged debris.
Having a little bit of fun with it, and trying to get out of my head, let's assume it's all true.
A lot of UFO folks have this belief that the secrecy is to keep cheap/free energy out of the hands of the people, and preserve the status quo at least when it comes to power & wealth. That might be the case, it's certainly cynical enough to be appropriate. But I don't think that's why.
Taking allegations seriously, the abilities of the UAP can often be described through the manipulation of gravitation as a force. "Space-time metric engineering" is a phrase thrown around in UFO circles, but that is in essence what we'd be talking about. Such an ability would definitely make utopia possible, and provide the reason to hide it if you're not a utopian.
If you can manipulate space-time to the degree that makes UAP possible, then you can manipulate space-time well enough that you can make the Death Star look like a nerf gun. And, if, it's not as difficult an engineering problem as the Manhattan Project was, then that is the reason this is all so secret. Remember at the beginning of the War on Terror, with the mass media and their concerns about terrorists making dirty bombs, biological weapons, getting an old soviet nuke, etc?
UFO folks, and UAP stories, often share similar themes about oscillations, and resonance. If the manipulation of space-time could be so simple (on the abstract level), that all you need is the right information in the right context, and some messing around, to get a functional device, then that's an incredibly dangerous possibility. If I got read-on to all this, and that's what it came down to, my god I would be on their side right away.
The amount of anxiety I get over the proliferation of far-less interesting technology is enough, already.
I really won't speculate as to the nature of any NHI, technological specifics, or psychic phenomenon without a stronger reason to. But I suppose I'm not closed off to the possibility. The stories here vary too much, IMO, for them to be worth anything. Maybe there's something there, maybe not. But to consider anything in detail, I need a reason to. At this time, I do not, and there's more productive ways to spend my time.
Man, that starts to read like every other conspiracy theorist by the last few paragraphs.
Also the first few paragraphs, now that I re-read it.
posted by sagc at 12:17 PM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
Also the first few paragraphs, now that I re-read it.
posted by sagc at 12:17 PM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
The fact that the response to *any* information about UAPs, be it "evidence" or debunking, is used to retrench the conspiracy is notable.
i wouldn't deny that there are plenty of uap believers who view everything through the lens of their certainty, with any counterpoint treated as evidence of their existing view. but aside from the fact that i don't think any of them are in this thread (at least, not any more!), i don't think their response is especially notable. it's wrong, sure, but it's also incredibly common across pretty much every topic where people hold strong views (e.g. per my links above).
in particular, it's a response exhibited by plenty of skeptics - not just some of those commenting in this thread and elsewhere on uaps, but in general. if someone is, in practice, basically certain that claim xyz is untrue, they will tend to find it more difficult to think objectively about any information that could make claim xyz more likely to be true - they'll be inclined to ignore it, or misread it, or focus only on ways in which it could support alternative claims and not claim xyz.
people can overcome that inclination with practice, but if they feel claim xyz is so obviously untrue that anyone open to believing it must be stupid, ignorant or malicious, objectivity is likely a lost cause - their antipathy to 'the other side' kicks in, and any acknowledgement that some information might support claim xyz feels like a surrender to idiots and grifters. and that's not even getting into the difficulties for people who pride themselves on being skeptics (a category they define as 'people who do not believe obviously silly things like claim xyz'), at which point you have all sorts of issues in play re shying away from things that feel like they're undermining a part of your identity.
none of this is especially controversial or unfamiliar for mefi - it's been said a thousand times in other threads and broadly nodded along with, and touches on widely discussed cognitive biases and fallacies that many skeptics could no doubt set out far more cogently than i have. the difference is that mefites (and skeptics in general) tend to apply this stuff to the other side, not to themselves. and the fact that on many topics, skeptics really are right and the other side really is wrong serves to reinforce this.
it's fascinating to watch the contortions, misrepresentations, cherrypicking, etc. in this thread as various posters attempt - consciously or otherwise - to maintain their mental status quo ante. not all those posters have been on the skeptical side, but most have been. a rolling case study of a menagerie of biases and fallacies, which would remain biased and fallacious even if grusch turns out to have been on a two month ambien bender and / or biden does a presser with a klingon.
oh, for a timeline where the rationalist movement didn't consist of eugenicists and basilisk victims...
posted by inire at 1:33 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
i wouldn't deny that there are plenty of uap believers who view everything through the lens of their certainty, with any counterpoint treated as evidence of their existing view. but aside from the fact that i don't think any of them are in this thread (at least, not any more!), i don't think their response is especially notable. it's wrong, sure, but it's also incredibly common across pretty much every topic where people hold strong views (e.g. per my links above).
in particular, it's a response exhibited by plenty of skeptics - not just some of those commenting in this thread and elsewhere on uaps, but in general. if someone is, in practice, basically certain that claim xyz is untrue, they will tend to find it more difficult to think objectively about any information that could make claim xyz more likely to be true - they'll be inclined to ignore it, or misread it, or focus only on ways in which it could support alternative claims and not claim xyz.
people can overcome that inclination with practice, but if they feel claim xyz is so obviously untrue that anyone open to believing it must be stupid, ignorant or malicious, objectivity is likely a lost cause - their antipathy to 'the other side' kicks in, and any acknowledgement that some information might support claim xyz feels like a surrender to idiots and grifters. and that's not even getting into the difficulties for people who pride themselves on being skeptics (a category they define as 'people who do not believe obviously silly things like claim xyz'), at which point you have all sorts of issues in play re shying away from things that feel like they're undermining a part of your identity.
none of this is especially controversial or unfamiliar for mefi - it's been said a thousand times in other threads and broadly nodded along with, and touches on widely discussed cognitive biases and fallacies that many skeptics could no doubt set out far more cogently than i have. the difference is that mefites (and skeptics in general) tend to apply this stuff to the other side, not to themselves. and the fact that on many topics, skeptics really are right and the other side really is wrong serves to reinforce this.
it's fascinating to watch the contortions, misrepresentations, cherrypicking, etc. in this thread as various posters attempt - consciously or otherwise - to maintain their mental status quo ante. not all those posters have been on the skeptical side, but most have been. a rolling case study of a menagerie of biases and fallacies, which would remain biased and fallacious even if grusch turns out to have been on a two month ambien bender and / or biden does a presser with a klingon.
oh, for a timeline where the rationalist movement didn't consist of eugenicists and basilisk victims...
posted by inire at 1:33 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
inire I'm not sure at all I agree that it's wrong for a person to require extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims.
Yes, I feel hostility towards the UFO crowd, and yes that absolutely raises the bar of what i'd take as evidence. In fact I feel a whole lot more hostility for the UFO fans now than I did before the hearings, which is a bit of a puzzler for me.
I fully expected the hearings to be exactly what they were: a giant taxpayer funded advertisement for Skinwalker Ranch desecrating the halls of government. I expected no one would present evidence, and I was right, no one did.
But for some reasion I'm still don't understand I am absolutely livid about it. Prior to these hearings I looked at UFO fans with disdain, now it's a simmering resentment and anger.
Maybe its dashed hopes? I would FUCKING LOVE TO BE WRONG. Every day I wake up and the headlines don't say "UFO's Are Real, Aliens Meet With UN" is a day I'm slightly disappointed.
I don't want to believe. I want to live in a universe where non-human exterrestrial intelligence is known to be real. I want actual hard, cold, facts to support the claim that aliens have visited Earth.
So maybe on some level despite knowing the hearings would be just a Skinwalker ad, I was harboring secret hopes that I'd be wrong, and I'm angry because those hopes were dashed.
Because, this is the important part, the quesiton of UFO's isn't a religious question. It isn't a philisophic question. It isn't a matter of opinion. It is a question of fact. Such questions are not resolved by belief, they are not settled by accusing naysayers of being mulish and stubborn in their skepticism.
This is not settled by debate. This is settled by evidence.
So I guess what I'm saying is I wish they'd stop raising my hopes with lies and either put up or shut up.
Show me the proof, I want to see it. I feel an yearning desire to see that proof that is somewhat akin to the urge of Christians to experience the Rapture.
But I won't settle for Skinwalker ranch crap. I won't settle for a professional liar telling us to just trust him. I want aliens to be real, but I don't want it so much I abandon my reason and critical thinking skills.
posted by sotonohito at 1:56 PM on July 27, 2023 [7 favorites]
Yes, I feel hostility towards the UFO crowd, and yes that absolutely raises the bar of what i'd take as evidence. In fact I feel a whole lot more hostility for the UFO fans now than I did before the hearings, which is a bit of a puzzler for me.
I fully expected the hearings to be exactly what they were: a giant taxpayer funded advertisement for Skinwalker Ranch desecrating the halls of government. I expected no one would present evidence, and I was right, no one did.
But for some reasion I'm still don't understand I am absolutely livid about it. Prior to these hearings I looked at UFO fans with disdain, now it's a simmering resentment and anger.
Maybe its dashed hopes? I would FUCKING LOVE TO BE WRONG. Every day I wake up and the headlines don't say "UFO's Are Real, Aliens Meet With UN" is a day I'm slightly disappointed.
I don't want to believe. I want to live in a universe where non-human exterrestrial intelligence is known to be real. I want actual hard, cold, facts to support the claim that aliens have visited Earth.
So maybe on some level despite knowing the hearings would be just a Skinwalker ad, I was harboring secret hopes that I'd be wrong, and I'm angry because those hopes were dashed.
Because, this is the important part, the quesiton of UFO's isn't a religious question. It isn't a philisophic question. It isn't a matter of opinion. It is a question of fact. Such questions are not resolved by belief, they are not settled by accusing naysayers of being mulish and stubborn in their skepticism.
This is not settled by debate. This is settled by evidence.
So I guess what I'm saying is I wish they'd stop raising my hopes with lies and either put up or shut up.
Show me the proof, I want to see it. I feel an yearning desire to see that proof that is somewhat akin to the urge of Christians to experience the Rapture.
But I won't settle for Skinwalker ranch crap. I won't settle for a professional liar telling us to just trust him. I want aliens to be real, but I don't want it so much I abandon my reason and critical thinking skills.
posted by sotonohito at 1:56 PM on July 27, 2023 [7 favorites]
Taking allegations seriously, the abilities of the UAP can often be described through the manipulation of gravitation as a force. "Space-time metric engineering" is a phrase thrown around in UFO circles, but that is in essence what we'd be talking about. Such an ability would definitely make utopia possible, and provide the reason to hide it if you're not a utopian.
I don't understand what he means about utopia. The biggest gun means peace?
posted by tiny frying pan at 2:00 PM on July 27, 2023
I don't understand what he means about utopia. The biggest gun means peace?
posted by tiny frying pan at 2:00 PM on July 27, 2023
it's fascinating to watch the contortions, misrepresentations, cherrypicking, etc. in this thread as various posters attempt - consciously or otherwise - to maintain their mental status quo ante
Inire, you have admitted, after quite considerable effort to pin you down on it, that there is no evidence here for any extraordinary claims. I’m sure you’d like people to change their minds on things but unless something I am unaware of has changed there is simply no reason to?
posted by Artw at 2:09 PM on July 27, 2023 [6 favorites]
Inire, you have admitted, after quite considerable effort to pin you down on it, that there is no evidence here for any extraordinary claims. I’m sure you’d like people to change their minds on things but unless something I am unaware of has changed there is simply no reason to?
posted by Artw at 2:09 PM on July 27, 2023 [6 favorites]
Also really not aware of any distirtions, cherrypicking etc… I think that’s another thing you are making up.
posted by Artw at 2:10 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 2:10 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
So there's a lot of ire about Grusch potentially lying and wasting the government's time.
I'm curious to know if others believe that Fravor and Graves are also grifters/liars? Or are they acting in earnest and simply mistaken that their UFO/UAP encounters were not really "unexplained," but rather weather ballons, swamp gas, etc...?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 2:28 PM on July 27, 2023
I'm curious to know if others believe that Fravor and Graves are also grifters/liars? Or are they acting in earnest and simply mistaken that their UFO/UAP encounters were not really "unexplained," but rather weather ballons, swamp gas, etc...?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 2:28 PM on July 27, 2023
Inire, you have admitted, after quite considerable effort to pin you down on it, that there is no evidence here for any extraordinary claims.
i regret that is incorrect (or at a minimum, incomplete).
i pointed out that current events were evidence of something, and that that something was not ‘aliens exist’ (but i think it is, on any reasonable view, something highly unusual – we can differ on whether that’s the same as ‘extraordinary’). you asked for evidence that grusch’s claims (broadly, that ‘aliens exist’) or the specific claims re flir blobs were true, to which i repeated that the only things that were both (i) capable of supporting those claims (although not exclusively those claims) and (ii) publicly available were the events in congress. that didn’t meet your definition of ‘evidence’, which is a valid definition but not the only one (as i noted here and expanded on in response to sotonohito here).
posted by inire at 2:56 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
i regret that is incorrect (or at a minimum, incomplete).
i pointed out that current events were evidence of something, and that that something was not ‘aliens exist’ (but i think it is, on any reasonable view, something highly unusual – we can differ on whether that’s the same as ‘extraordinary’). you asked for evidence that grusch’s claims (broadly, that ‘aliens exist’) or the specific claims re flir blobs were true, to which i repeated that the only things that were both (i) capable of supporting those claims (although not exclusively those claims) and (ii) publicly available were the events in congress. that didn’t meet your definition of ‘evidence’, which is a valid definition but not the only one (as i noted here and expanded on in response to sotonohito here).
posted by inire at 2:56 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oh yes, my very strict criteria of “you have to be able to see it”.
So, there is no change in evidence THAT WE CAN SEE, and there wasn’t particularly any evidence THAT WE CAN SEE pointing at non human intelligences, phenomena unexplainable by any mundane means, Italian bell UFOs etc… what has happens that have changed our “mental status quo ante” here?
posted by Artw at 3:13 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
So, there is no change in evidence THAT WE CAN SEE, and there wasn’t particularly any evidence THAT WE CAN SEE pointing at non human intelligences, phenomena unexplainable by any mundane means, Italian bell UFOs etc… what has happens that have changed our “mental status quo ante” here?
posted by Artw at 3:13 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
Also really not aware of any distirtions, cherrypicking etc… I think that’s another thing you are making up.
case in point. but as another relatively recent example, see your comment that grusch’s testimony (and, i’m assuming given your subsequent comments, the hearing as a whole) was:
“a highly stage managed event to publicize some claims without specifics and then point at the SCIF as where any specifics relating to the claims might be.
What’s in the SCIF? More indirection would be my bet. At most the names of some people who will give them a similar clown show shoukd they desire.”
the first sentence of that comment is, on its face, perfectly true – unremarkable, even. the hearing absolutely was a highly stage managed event, because it’s a congressional hearing in which there was a relatively high level of media / third party interest, and every single congressional hearing in that category is a highly stage managed event (sometimes the management is incompetent, admittedly). as i noted above, i think it’s very clear that the hearing was intended in part to publicise the existing claims (which don’t include specifics). and as one would expect when the undisclosed specifics are apparently classified, grusch pointed to the scif as the place where he could disclose them.
however, you presented those true and unremarkable facts as undermining grusch’s claims, when in reality they are consistent with both the broad skeptical position (he’s a liar or misled, etc.) and the believer position (aliens! human super-tech mistaken for aliens! wheee!), making them incapable of undermining his claims at this stage. i think that can be fairly described as cherrypicking or a distortion, in that you present one interpretation without acknowledging the other, and draw a conclusion that relies on the other not existing. (i don’t mean the terms ‘cherrypicking’ or ‘distortion’ to imply that this is deliberate, by the way – as i said above, this can be done consciously or unconsciously.)
you then said you thought the information he would disclose in the scif would “at most” be the names of people who are his co-grifters and / or co-idiots (i wasn’t quite clear if you preferred one to the other), which was either a demonstration of ignorance or an obvious instance of cherrypicking, given that he had – mere moments ago! – said he would provide the names of private contractors working to withhold information (as i promptly pointed out) and a list of hostile witnesses (which i didn’t point out but should have). both of which seem extremely unlikely to “give them a similar clown show”.
For some other briefer examples, see your comments expressing full and certain knowledge of grusch’s motivations, intentions and possession of previously undisclosed classified material here, here, here, here and here - which suggest you may have developed remote viewing skills, a topic that many people in r/ufos would be keen to discuss with you - and your presentation of grusch’s failure to go full snowden as a point against him here (rather than what would be expected by both skeptics and believers, as i pointed out a few comments later).
so as not to imply that this is just about you, see for variety flabdablet’s semi-fixation on the facial expressions of grusch and others as somehow meaningful, and the suggestion that aoc and raskin only appeared to be taking seriously the allegations re flaws in congressional oversight, not anything to do with uaps (without following on to the obvious next question, ‘oversight of… what?’). and, for good measure, the summary of the hearing as "nothing of substance" having been raised, which is both inconsistent with the implication in flabdablet’s next comment that it was reasonable for aoc and raskin to take allegations of flaws in congressional oversight seriously, and also an obviously inaccurate statement on its face - many issues of substance were raised in the hearing, because raising something (as the comment itself notes!) is not the same thing as resolving it.
i guess we could go back further in the thread but this comment is long enough already, so.
posted by inire at 3:16 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
case in point. but as another relatively recent example, see your comment that grusch’s testimony (and, i’m assuming given your subsequent comments, the hearing as a whole) was:
“a highly stage managed event to publicize some claims without specifics and then point at the SCIF as where any specifics relating to the claims might be.
What’s in the SCIF? More indirection would be my bet. At most the names of some people who will give them a similar clown show shoukd they desire.”
the first sentence of that comment is, on its face, perfectly true – unremarkable, even. the hearing absolutely was a highly stage managed event, because it’s a congressional hearing in which there was a relatively high level of media / third party interest, and every single congressional hearing in that category is a highly stage managed event (sometimes the management is incompetent, admittedly). as i noted above, i think it’s very clear that the hearing was intended in part to publicise the existing claims (which don’t include specifics). and as one would expect when the undisclosed specifics are apparently classified, grusch pointed to the scif as the place where he could disclose them.
however, you presented those true and unremarkable facts as undermining grusch’s claims, when in reality they are consistent with both the broad skeptical position (he’s a liar or misled, etc.) and the believer position (aliens! human super-tech mistaken for aliens! wheee!), making them incapable of undermining his claims at this stage. i think that can be fairly described as cherrypicking or a distortion, in that you present one interpretation without acknowledging the other, and draw a conclusion that relies on the other not existing. (i don’t mean the terms ‘cherrypicking’ or ‘distortion’ to imply that this is deliberate, by the way – as i said above, this can be done consciously or unconsciously.)
you then said you thought the information he would disclose in the scif would “at most” be the names of people who are his co-grifters and / or co-idiots (i wasn’t quite clear if you preferred one to the other), which was either a demonstration of ignorance or an obvious instance of cherrypicking, given that he had – mere moments ago! – said he would provide the names of private contractors working to withhold information (as i promptly pointed out) and a list of hostile witnesses (which i didn’t point out but should have). both of which seem extremely unlikely to “give them a similar clown show”.
For some other briefer examples, see your comments expressing full and certain knowledge of grusch’s motivations, intentions and possession of previously undisclosed classified material here, here, here, here and here - which suggest you may have developed remote viewing skills, a topic that many people in r/ufos would be keen to discuss with you - and your presentation of grusch’s failure to go full snowden as a point against him here (rather than what would be expected by both skeptics and believers, as i pointed out a few comments later).
so as not to imply that this is just about you, see for variety flabdablet’s semi-fixation on the facial expressions of grusch and others as somehow meaningful, and the suggestion that aoc and raskin only appeared to be taking seriously the allegations re flaws in congressional oversight, not anything to do with uaps (without following on to the obvious next question, ‘oversight of… what?’). and, for good measure, the summary of the hearing as "nothing of substance" having been raised, which is both inconsistent with the implication in flabdablet’s next comment that it was reasonable for aoc and raskin to take allegations of flaws in congressional oversight seriously, and also an obviously inaccurate statement on its face - many issues of substance were raised in the hearing, because raising something (as the comment itself notes!) is not the same thing as resolving it.
i guess we could go back further in the thread but this comment is long enough already, so.
posted by inire at 3:16 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
I do not like star chamber like "secure speaking vault" thingie that is going on ... but mostly because I am trying so so very hard not to believe that is somehow just the a refreshed and redecorated Hall of Hush.
posted by MonsieurPEB at 3:18 PM on July 27, 2023
posted by MonsieurPEB at 3:18 PM on July 27, 2023
I think the most likely cause of a thing being unexplained is the lack of sufficient information to explain it.
There are things we do not know. That does not imply that those are things we could not know if we'd managed to gather more information about them. All it means is that we do not have enough information to support any given hypothesis well enough to let it rise to a confidence level rendering it explanatory and/or predictive.
Some of the specific things that we know we do not know - some known unknowns - about sightings such as Tic Tac are how big and how far from the observers' aircraft the things sighted were. All we have is inconsistent reports from multiple flight personnel, some of which include guesses about those sizes and distances.
Some people, for reasons best known to themselves, enjoy insisting on the correctness of guesses that would logically require the guessed-at objects to have been moving in ways inconsistent with any reasonable understanding of physics, and then work themselves into a pearl-clutching froth about how humanity could not possibly defend itself against "technology" capable of such movements. Quite a lot of that was on display in the recent Congressional clown show.
Some people insist on doing this even when, as is the case for all of the extant blob videos, there is enough recorded information available either to reconstruct perfectly ordinary flight paths consistent with the objects in question being other aircraft, balloons, birds and whatnot, or to account for them as equipment-generated artifacts.
Fravor and Graves do not know what they saw. Neither do you, neither do I, neither does anybody else, and nobody ever will. I'm completely comfortable with that because I don't need a Just So story to fill in or paper over every gap in my knowledge. I have neither the hubris required to assume that I can know everything purely by wanting to nor the frankly chickenshit attitude that anything I don't understand is ipso facto threatening.
I'm sure it's irritating to be flying through the sky inside the product of billions of dollars worth of R&D that is still unable to tell you exactly what it is you're looking at, but sometimes them's the breaks.
posted by flabdablet at 3:20 PM on July 27, 2023 [6 favorites]
There are things we do not know. That does not imply that those are things we could not know if we'd managed to gather more information about them. All it means is that we do not have enough information to support any given hypothesis well enough to let it rise to a confidence level rendering it explanatory and/or predictive.
Some of the specific things that we know we do not know - some known unknowns - about sightings such as Tic Tac are how big and how far from the observers' aircraft the things sighted were. All we have is inconsistent reports from multiple flight personnel, some of which include guesses about those sizes and distances.
Some people, for reasons best known to themselves, enjoy insisting on the correctness of guesses that would logically require the guessed-at objects to have been moving in ways inconsistent with any reasonable understanding of physics, and then work themselves into a pearl-clutching froth about how humanity could not possibly defend itself against "technology" capable of such movements. Quite a lot of that was on display in the recent Congressional clown show.
Some people insist on doing this even when, as is the case for all of the extant blob videos, there is enough recorded information available either to reconstruct perfectly ordinary flight paths consistent with the objects in question being other aircraft, balloons, birds and whatnot, or to account for them as equipment-generated artifacts.
Fravor and Graves do not know what they saw. Neither do you, neither do I, neither does anybody else, and nobody ever will. I'm completely comfortable with that because I don't need a Just So story to fill in or paper over every gap in my knowledge. I have neither the hubris required to assume that I can know everything purely by wanting to nor the frankly chickenshit attitude that anything I don't understand is ipso facto threatening.
I'm sure it's irritating to be flying through the sky inside the product of billions of dollars worth of R&D that is still unable to tell you exactly what it is you're looking at, but sometimes them's the breaks.
posted by flabdablet at 3:20 PM on July 27, 2023 [6 favorites]
Oh yes, my very strict criteria of “you have to be able to see it”.
So, there is no change in evidence THAT WE CAN SEE, and there wasn’t particularly any evidence THAT WE CAN SEE pointing at non human intelligences, phenomena unexplainable by any mundane means, Italian bell UFOs etc… what has happens that have changed our “mental status quo ante” here?
the events in congress, in the limited sense spelled out in the comment you're replying to and the other comments linked therein, which touch on all the points mentioned in your comment just now. did you read them, out of interest? if you did, did you make an effort to think about them objectively, rather than through the lens of your current certainty, even if you have quibbles with how they're presented? if so, i appreciate it (sincerely). i've been attempting to do the same.
posted by inire at 3:27 PM on July 27, 2023
So, there is no change in evidence THAT WE CAN SEE, and there wasn’t particularly any evidence THAT WE CAN SEE pointing at non human intelligences, phenomena unexplainable by any mundane means, Italian bell UFOs etc… what has happens that have changed our “mental status quo ante” here?
the events in congress, in the limited sense spelled out in the comment you're replying to and the other comments linked therein, which touch on all the points mentioned in your comment just now. did you read them, out of interest? if you did, did you make an effort to think about them objectively, rather than through the lens of your current certainty, even if you have quibbles with how they're presented? if so, i appreciate it (sincerely). i've been attempting to do the same.
posted by inire at 3:27 PM on July 27, 2023
A few decades ago, while I was studying architecture, I was pulling an all-nighter in one of my school's student workshops. A few other students were there too, including a small group that didn't seem that interested in actually working.
Instead, one of them was telling these fairly far-fetched stories about all these different women who had come on to him at one time or another. The stories where your standard post-adolescent male bullshit, but what really got to me was that each of them ended in a big nothing-burger. No kiss, no sex, no dating, nothing. They were all set-up and no get-down.
I would pop up my head every now and then, and interrupt him, asking, "Did you kiss her"?
He'd hem and haw and explain why he hadn't done anything—the timing wasn't right, he was friends with her brother, the cat got out and they had to go find him, etc.—and I'd just say "OK", put my head back down and he'd go back to his non-stories.
Which is to say: Was any actual evidence for any actual aliens presented?
posted by signal at 3:31 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Instead, one of them was telling these fairly far-fetched stories about all these different women who had come on to him at one time or another. The stories where your standard post-adolescent male bullshit, but what really got to me was that each of them ended in a big nothing-burger. No kiss, no sex, no dating, nothing. They were all set-up and no get-down.
I would pop up my head every now and then, and interrupt him, asking, "Did you kiss her"?
He'd hem and haw and explain why he hadn't done anything—the timing wasn't right, he was friends with her brother, the cat got out and they had to go find him, etc.—and I'd just say "OK", put my head back down and he'd go back to his non-stories.
Which is to say: Was any actual evidence for any actual aliens presented?
posted by signal at 3:31 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
What events in Congress?
posted by Artw at 3:31 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 3:31 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
see your comment that grusch’s testimony (and, i’m assuming given your subsequent comments, the hearing as a whole) was:
Gosh. That’s me told. I’m gonna just have to live with looking like an inflexible fool when someone pulls out an actual alien or direct testimony from a named credible witness or evidence of any kind whatsoever…
As it is I think you are just easily impressed and characterizing people who are not easily impressed as “cherrypicking” or “distorting” is pretty crappy and rude.
posted by Artw at 3:34 PM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
Gosh. That’s me told. I’m gonna just have to live with looking like an inflexible fool when someone pulls out an actual alien or direct testimony from a named credible witness or evidence of any kind whatsoever…
As it is I think you are just easily impressed and characterizing people who are not easily impressed as “cherrypicking” or “distorting” is pretty crappy and rude.
posted by Artw at 3:34 PM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
Don't you get it? Implications of evidence are in fact the same as evidence! Also, we absolutely worked with Mussolini to retrieve a UFO.
I feel like if you're going to hang anything on this testimony, you kinda have to accept all of it, in all its conspiratorial glory.
posted by sagc at 3:35 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
I feel like if you're going to hang anything on this testimony, you kinda have to accept all of it, in all its conspiratorial glory.
posted by sagc at 3:35 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
What events in Congress?
the developments covered in rhaomi's original post and arising subsequently, listed (as they stood at that point) in a previous comment, which you responded to, which led to us having a discussion that i am attempting to avoid repeating verbatim.
As it is I think you are just easily impressed and characterizing people who are not easily impressed as “cherrypicking” or “distorting” is pretty crappy and rude.
i appreciate that people don't generally like to be told precisely how and why someone thinks they're wrong, both in what they believe and their reasons for believing it, but that's something that tends to happen where there's a stark disagreement. i've been quite clear that i don't think all of this is being done deliberately (which would be a crappy thing to suggest).
i'll admit that pointing out what you consider to be someone's cognitive bias or fallacy is rude, in the sense that it is often rude to point out (what you see as) someone's mistakes in public, because it has the potential to embarrass them. i don't think it's rude in the same way that, say, describing someone as engaging in "extremely tiresome" "'help! I’m being censored by other people talking' bullshit" is rude.
although fortunately that comment does suggest that even if i am being crappy and rude by explaining some of the problems i see as common to the hard skeptical position, it won't stop anyone else from participating in the thread, so i guess i shouldn't be too critical of it.
posted by inire at 4:08 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
the developments covered in rhaomi's original post and arising subsequently, listed (as they stood at that point) in a previous comment, which you responded to, which led to us having a discussion that i am attempting to avoid repeating verbatim.
As it is I think you are just easily impressed and characterizing people who are not easily impressed as “cherrypicking” or “distorting” is pretty crappy and rude.
i appreciate that people don't generally like to be told precisely how and why someone thinks they're wrong, both in what they believe and their reasons for believing it, but that's something that tends to happen where there's a stark disagreement. i've been quite clear that i don't think all of this is being done deliberately (which would be a crappy thing to suggest).
i'll admit that pointing out what you consider to be someone's cognitive bias or fallacy is rude, in the sense that it is often rude to point out (what you see as) someone's mistakes in public, because it has the potential to embarrass them. i don't think it's rude in the same way that, say, describing someone as engaging in "extremely tiresome" "'help! I’m being censored by other people talking' bullshit" is rude.
although fortunately that comment does suggest that even if i am being crappy and rude by explaining some of the problems i see as common to the hard skeptical position, it won't stop anyone else from participating in the thread, so i guess i shouldn't be too critical of it.
posted by inire at 4:08 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oh I thought you meant something new not the literal subject of the post, which everyone is very well aware of and still contains no evidence.
posted by Artw at 4:19 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:19 PM on July 27, 2023 [4 favorites]
Oh I thought you meant something new not the literal subject of the post, which everyone is very well aware of and still contains no evidence.
i guess that answers my previous question in the negative. oh well.
out of interest (and to avoid beating the above dead horse), what would be the minimum evidence that would lead you to significantly change your current view? as in, short of pulling out an actual alien, which i think would convince pretty much everyone. would direct testimony from a named credible witness (as you mentioned a few comments up) be sufficient? if so, what would you see as the minimum for them to be considered credible?
interested to hear anyone else's response to that as well.
posted by inire at 4:29 PM on July 27, 2023
i guess that answers my previous question in the negative. oh well.
out of interest (and to avoid beating the above dead horse), what would be the minimum evidence that would lead you to significantly change your current view? as in, short of pulling out an actual alien, which i think would convince pretty much everyone. would direct testimony from a named credible witness (as you mentioned a few comments up) be sufficient? if so, what would you see as the minimum for them to be considered credible?
interested to hear anyone else's response to that as well.
posted by inire at 4:29 PM on July 27, 2023
Give me, like, Neil DeGrasse Tyson and a council of scientists, or a group of national astronomical societies, or basically anyone independent announcing anything? Hell, there have been repeated claims of spacecraft/bodies/reverse engineering - roll out a alien body at a museum, or give a bunch of scientists and reporters a preview of some physics-defying device.
So... evidence, I guess, and not reports of observations and suggestions that evidence might exist?
The more you argue that the above cannot possibly be provided, the more you get into conspiracy territory. If you think there's no evidence apart from unverifiable observations, then you're diverging from the claims made by the witnesses.
posted by sagc at 4:37 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
So... evidence, I guess, and not reports of observations and suggestions that evidence might exist?
The more you argue that the above cannot possibly be provided, the more you get into conspiracy territory. If you think there's no evidence apart from unverifiable observations, then you're diverging from the claims made by the witnesses.
posted by sagc at 4:37 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Give me, like, Neil DeGrasse Tyson and a council of scientists, or a group of national astronomical societies, or basically anyone independent announcing anything?
fair enough, that would be pretty compelling. and of course any obviously non-human tech / alien biology would be huge (albeit all we would have in the initial stages of that being released would be 'reports of observations', so maybe there's a lag on that being taken seriously). when you say 'independent', what does that mean - independence from what? as in, how do you see that having a bearing on credibility?
(also, just to note i think it's perfectly possible that the kind of evidence you talk about could be provided, if it in fact exists.)
posted by inire at 4:46 PM on July 27, 2023
fair enough, that would be pretty compelling. and of course any obviously non-human tech / alien biology would be huge (albeit all we would have in the initial stages of that being released would be 'reports of observations', so maybe there's a lag on that being taken seriously). when you say 'independent', what does that mean - independence from what? as in, how do you see that having a bearing on credibility?
(also, just to note i think it's perfectly possible that the kind of evidence you talk about could be provided, if it in fact exists.)
posted by inire at 4:46 PM on July 27, 2023
I think a problem we have is that different people have different thresholds of evidence, whether that's to believe something or even to think it worth looking into. Like, say Manu Raju reported seeing the Gang of Eight leaving a SCIF with Grusch and top brass, all visibly disturbed, only to fast-track Schumer's amendment as standalone legislation with an expedited timeline. Is that hard evidence aliens exist? Of course not, but it strongly implies something compellingly weird and unsettling is going on beyond the usual FLIR blobs and tall tales. Heck, if Biden held a press conference in the Rose Garden tomorrow revealing that DoD has been in communication with another species, would *that* be hard evidence? He could be lying, or delusional, or the Pentagon could be mistakenly talking to a 4chan troll behind seven proxies. But it would certainly be enough for a lot of people here, despite being just words from a government known to not always be fully honest about important matters. ("Don't you know the military lied about WMDs? Why trust them about ETs?")
Some people believe that the pedigree, context, specificity, and by-the-book nature of the recent UAP claims to be different enough from your garden-variety UFO kookery that it's worth paying attention to -- not even accept at face value, but simply to investigate further to determine what exactly is going on. Others don't think that this kind of circumstantial evidence is enough to even give such claims the time of day. I don't think that's a bridgeable gap, just a difference in philosophy.
Either way, regardless of how open you are to considering these claims, it would be nice to be respectful of (or at least not actively hostile to) people whose own evidentiary thresholds has them placing the "bullshit/interesting" line in a slightly different spot.
posted by Rhaomi at 5:22 PM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
Some people believe that the pedigree, context, specificity, and by-the-book nature of the recent UAP claims to be different enough from your garden-variety UFO kookery that it's worth paying attention to -- not even accept at face value, but simply to investigate further to determine what exactly is going on. Others don't think that this kind of circumstantial evidence is enough to even give such claims the time of day. I don't think that's a bridgeable gap, just a difference in philosophy.
Either way, regardless of how open you are to considering these claims, it would be nice to be respectful of (or at least not actively hostile to) people whose own evidentiary thresholds has them placing the "bullshit/interesting" line in a slightly different spot.
posted by Rhaomi at 5:22 PM on July 27, 2023 [3 favorites]
You can find things interesting all you like but this remains a set of extraordinary claims without evidence within the presence of a large number of grifters. The repeated attempts to repackage and recontextualize the same claims as something new do nothing for this.
Repeatedly saying there is “evidence” where there is no evidence is spreading falsehood. There’s no difference of opinion on evidentiary threshold there, it’s just a lie.
If you want to claim something as evidencenwothout pushback, have evidence.
posted by Artw at 6:20 PM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
Repeatedly saying there is “evidence” where there is no evidence is spreading falsehood. There’s no difference of opinion on evidentiary threshold there, it’s just a lie.
If you want to claim something as evidencenwothout pushback, have evidence.
posted by Artw at 6:20 PM on July 27, 2023 [5 favorites]
This is so tedious. I'd rather keep talking about the actual subject of the post.
Here are the 5 most memorable moments from Congress’ UFO hearing
UFO hearing key takeaways: What a whistleblower told Congress about UAPs
I simply find it interesting this hearing happened and am enjoying reading links about it. Please share any more if you got em, these are pretty general sources.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:37 PM on July 27, 2023
Here are the 5 most memorable moments from Congress’ UFO hearing
UFO hearing key takeaways: What a whistleblower told Congress about UAPs
I simply find it interesting this hearing happened and am enjoying reading links about it. Please share any more if you got em, these are pretty general sources.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:37 PM on July 27, 2023
This has gotten frat boys beat up teen in Barney costume in front of kids at shopping mall by just a little too much
posted by y2karl at 6:46 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by y2karl at 6:46 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mod note: Comment removed, please avoid making armchair psychology assessments from afar, thanks.
Otherwise, just a mod popping in to note the various flags on the back and forth comments that are occurring down at the end of this thread and remind people that if they're finding it difficult or stressful to read or make comments, no one is obligated to be here.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:50 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Otherwise, just a mod popping in to note the various flags on the back and forth comments that are occurring down at the end of this thread and remind people that if they're finding it difficult or stressful to read or make comments, no one is obligated to be here.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 6:50 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
AOC: If you want more UFO hearings, let Oversight Chair Comer know
In an exclusive interview, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) tells Ask a Pol, while UFOs aren’t the talk of the town in her Bronx district, she attended the House Oversight Committee’s UFO hearing because it overlaps with her efforts to reign in the military industrial complex.posted by Rhaomi at 6:52 PM on July 27, 2023
“Probably less so in my district, but I do believe that there are intersections here that are very relevant to work that I’ve done, particularly, around defense contracting and transparency from the Pentagon,” AOC told Ask a Pol as she was walking back to her office after leaving the UFO hearing. “We have had many, many, many issues regarding that, and I think it extends across many different subjects.”
When we asked her what’s next, Ocasio-Cortez said it, basically, depends on two things: Oversight Chair James Comer and the public.
A classified hearing with UFO whistleblower David Grusch “would be a potential next step for the committee,” AOC says, “if we have support from the chairman.”
Always an organizer at heart, AOC says there’s one surefire way to overcome potential resistance from Comer, Speaker Kevin McCarthy or other GOP powerplayers, including those who Reps. Tim Burchett (R-TN) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) say put up roadblock after roadblock leading up to the hearing.
“I think that ultimately comes down to politics. I think it’s important for everyday people to weigh in on their support, even if it’s in a closed setting,” AOC told Ask a Pol. “If people want that follow-up, I think it’s important that they express that.”
The truth is out there. But this UFO ‘whistleblower’ likely doesn’t have it
(Largely points made previously in thread, but a rarity in coverage of this)
posted by Artw at 7:20 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
(Largely points made previously in thread, but a rarity in coverage of this)
posted by Artw at 7:20 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
NPR article on the hearings
10 years ago, I'd never guess that I'd be reading headlines on major news outlets saying things like "UFO Congressional hearing."
We are living in truly strange times.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 9:03 PM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
10 years ago, I'd never guess that I'd be reading headlines on major news outlets saying things like "UFO Congressional hearing."
We are living in truly strange times.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 9:03 PM on July 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
The repeated attempts to repackage and recontextualize the same claims as something new do nothing for this.
Oh come now. We've made a lot of progress in relatively little time. Give us another six months to get these things securitized and buy AA1 ratings for them. Once we have them on the blockchain and ChatGPT starts recommending them not even the sky is the limit.
Stonks, baby! To infinity and beyond!
posted by flabdablet at 9:25 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oh come now. We've made a lot of progress in relatively little time. Give us another six months to get these things securitized and buy AA1 ratings for them. Once we have them on the blockchain and ChatGPT starts recommending them not even the sky is the limit.
Stonks, baby! To infinity and beyond!
posted by flabdablet at 9:25 PM on July 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
you interpreted information in a way that strengthened your prior beliefs? seems rigorous.
No, I didn't hear any "information" that challenged my prior knowledge of scientific facts and principles. All I heard from the hearing and from folks like you was speculation, mystification, self-aggrandizing claims to authority, and Pure D bullshit.
And I am going to stick with good plain. English words like "fools and grifters,"so feel free to call me names back. But let me know when you have proof.
posted by spitbull at 5:10 AM on July 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
No, I didn't hear any "information" that challenged my prior knowledge of scientific facts and principles. All I heard from the hearing and from folks like you was speculation, mystification, self-aggrandizing claims to authority, and Pure D bullshit.
And I am going to stick with good plain. English words like "fools and grifters,"so feel free to call me names back. But let me know when you have proof.
posted by spitbull at 5:10 AM on July 28, 2023 [5 favorites]
Dana Milbank offers his take in the Washington Post.
posted by interogative mood at 6:32 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 6:32 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
inire What I'd consider evidence would be something extraordinary.
Actual aliens. Actual starships. Actual communications.
That's about it really.
No, I won't take any amount of FLIR blobs as evidence of UFO's and aliens.
No I won't take ANYONE's word for it that they totally saw an alien. No one. Not one single person on the entire planet has sufficient credibility to make that sort of claim and expect to be believed.
No, I won't take some huckster telling me that the evidence is totally there but just classified so no one can see it.
In fact, that last part sounds like the purest of pure bullshit to me.
Consider that concept for a moment.
For that argument to make sense we'd have to believe two things:
1) The US military does NOT consider the fact that it is in possession of UFO's, alien technology, and alien bodies to be classified. Gruch and the others who claim to have learned this are completely free to talk about it and even to say that further evidence exists and that does not violate any secrets or classification.
but also
2) The actual PROOF that they have aliens, UFO's, etc is super duper mega double secret MEGA/ULTRA top classified and no one is ever, ever, under any circumstances at all allowed to see the proof.
No.
If the US military had UFO's and aliens and so on I could see them classfiying the EXISTENCE of such things, which would include the actual proof but also the mere fact of their possession of those things. I cannot under any circumstances imagine a US military in possession of UFO's and aliens saying that their ownership of such things is declassified but the proof is classified.
Also? What possible military secrets could be compromised, since they've already agreed that thier possession of alien artifacts is not a secret, by letting us just see a picture of the artifact? It aint' like we're going ot reverse engineer it by looking at a picture you know?
Its not just BS, its fractally BS. Every single aspect of the conspiracy claims are as totally BS as the whole.
My answer to "what would convince me that UFO's really are alien visitors" is the same as my answer to the question "what would convince me that the God of Abraham and Isaac is real".
That answer is: show me.
No testimony. No faith. No trusting people. SHOW ME.
posted by sotonohito at 7:14 AM on July 28, 2023 [13 favorites]
Actual aliens. Actual starships. Actual communications.
That's about it really.
No, I won't take any amount of FLIR blobs as evidence of UFO's and aliens.
No I won't take ANYONE's word for it that they totally saw an alien. No one. Not one single person on the entire planet has sufficient credibility to make that sort of claim and expect to be believed.
No, I won't take some huckster telling me that the evidence is totally there but just classified so no one can see it.
In fact, that last part sounds like the purest of pure bullshit to me.
Consider that concept for a moment.
For that argument to make sense we'd have to believe two things:
1) The US military does NOT consider the fact that it is in possession of UFO's, alien technology, and alien bodies to be classified. Gruch and the others who claim to have learned this are completely free to talk about it and even to say that further evidence exists and that does not violate any secrets or classification.
but also
2) The actual PROOF that they have aliens, UFO's, etc is super duper mega double secret MEGA/ULTRA top classified and no one is ever, ever, under any circumstances at all allowed to see the proof.
No.
If the US military had UFO's and aliens and so on I could see them classfiying the EXISTENCE of such things, which would include the actual proof but also the mere fact of their possession of those things. I cannot under any circumstances imagine a US military in possession of UFO's and aliens saying that their ownership of such things is declassified but the proof is classified.
Also? What possible military secrets could be compromised, since they've already agreed that thier possession of alien artifacts is not a secret, by letting us just see a picture of the artifact? It aint' like we're going ot reverse engineer it by looking at a picture you know?
Its not just BS, its fractally BS. Every single aspect of the conspiracy claims are as totally BS as the whole.
My answer to "what would convince me that UFO's really are alien visitors" is the same as my answer to the question "what would convince me that the God of Abraham and Isaac is real".
That answer is: show me.
No testimony. No faith. No trusting people. SHOW ME.
posted by sotonohito at 7:14 AM on July 28, 2023 [13 favorites]
If the US military had UFO's and aliens and so on I could see them classfiying the EXISTENCE of such things, which would include the actual proof but also the mere fact of their possession of those things. I cannot under any circumstances imagine a US military in possession of UFO's and aliens saying that their ownership of such things is declassified but the proof is classified.
Also the whole "40 people over 4 years of interviews just told you the super duper classified details of this stuff that we're apparently threatening and possibly murdering people to keep secret, but it hasn't leaked in other ways?" question, and the question of how he feels free to talk about some of this stuff in interviews but clams up about the same stuff in Congress...
posted by jason_steakums at 7:27 AM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Also the whole "40 people over 4 years of interviews just told you the super duper classified details of this stuff that we're apparently threatening and possibly murdering people to keep secret, but it hasn't leaked in other ways?" question, and the question of how he feels free to talk about some of this stuff in interviews but clams up about the same stuff in Congress...
posted by jason_steakums at 7:27 AM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Do people questioning Grusch's credibility also feel the same way about other witnesses who have come forward? Are Graves and Fravor full of shit too? Are other people who have gone through the proper channels to report things, just not in front of CSPAN cameras or Australian journalists or whatever, also full of shit?
posted by emelenjr at 8:00 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by emelenjr at 8:00 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
FLIR botherers seem very enthusiastic about the convincingness of something I’d consider a bit weird but not surprising, given all the FLIR blobs that do have explanations. They certainly would like more attention (and maybe money?) and some kind of more formal review of blob encounters is maybe warranted especially given the recent balloon thing, but I don’t think they’d be into anything that wasn’t exciting and mysterious.
posted by Artw at 8:07 AM on July 28, 2023
posted by Artw at 8:07 AM on July 28, 2023
emelenjr
Yes.
Either they're lying or mistaken.
Let me expand on that. If you assembled a committee consisting of my mother, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, every Nobel prize winner in astrophysics for the last 20 years, Rebecca Watson, and the ghost of James fucking Randi and they all told me they'd totally seen proof of aliens and I wasn't allowed to see it but I should just take thier word for it, I wouldn't believe them.
Maybe part of that is my own class warriorism. I find it insulting and paternalistic for some asshole to pat me on the head and say that they're super duper mega special better than me people who get to see reality but I'm forbidden from seeing it so I just have to trust them.
But again, please tell me why you think this conversation is even slightly plausible:
General Secrecy McAlienhider: Hi there Mr. Grusch you're totally allowed to see all this wikked kewl evidence of aliens! See our football field sized UFO that we're reverse engineering? Look, over here are the alien corpses we're dissecting!
Grusch: Wow General McAlienhider, that must be super duper mega top secret so I can't tell anyone what I've seen, right?
General Secrecy McAlienhider: Don't be silly, we wouldn't classify the fact that we own alien artifacts and alien corpses, that's 100% declassified and you can tell anyone you want.
Grusch: Cool, so I can show them pictures and proof right?
General Secrecy McAlienhider: Oh no no no no, THAT part is totally secret and if you revealed it we'd file criminal charges against you for violating the secrecy laws.
Seriously?
Or any of the people talking about their FLIR blobs? The actual PROOF is secret, but they're allowed to tell everyone they saw a UFO?
You're asking me to believe that the US military is simultaneously obsessed iwth secrecy about aliens and totally unconcerned with secrecy about aliens.
My mind is flexible, but I can't contort it that much.
posted by sotonohito at 8:25 AM on July 28, 2023 [11 favorites]
Yes.
Either they're lying or mistaken.
Let me expand on that. If you assembled a committee consisting of my mother, Neil DeGrasse Tyson, every Nobel prize winner in astrophysics for the last 20 years, Rebecca Watson, and the ghost of James fucking Randi and they all told me they'd totally seen proof of aliens and I wasn't allowed to see it but I should just take thier word for it, I wouldn't believe them.
Maybe part of that is my own class warriorism. I find it insulting and paternalistic for some asshole to pat me on the head and say that they're super duper mega special better than me people who get to see reality but I'm forbidden from seeing it so I just have to trust them.
But again, please tell me why you think this conversation is even slightly plausible:
General Secrecy McAlienhider: Hi there Mr. Grusch you're totally allowed to see all this wikked kewl evidence of aliens! See our football field sized UFO that we're reverse engineering? Look, over here are the alien corpses we're dissecting!
Grusch: Wow General McAlienhider, that must be super duper mega top secret so I can't tell anyone what I've seen, right?
General Secrecy McAlienhider: Don't be silly, we wouldn't classify the fact that we own alien artifacts and alien corpses, that's 100% declassified and you can tell anyone you want.
Grusch: Cool, so I can show them pictures and proof right?
General Secrecy McAlienhider: Oh no no no no, THAT part is totally secret and if you revealed it we'd file criminal charges against you for violating the secrecy laws.
Seriously?
Or any of the people talking about their FLIR blobs? The actual PROOF is secret, but they're allowed to tell everyone they saw a UFO?
You're asking me to believe that the US military is simultaneously obsessed iwth secrecy about aliens and totally unconcerned with secrecy about aliens.
My mind is flexible, but I can't contort it that much.
posted by sotonohito at 8:25 AM on July 28, 2023 [11 favorites]
Are Graves and Fravor full of shit too? Are other people who have gone through the proper channels to report things, just not in front of CSPAN cameras or Australian journalists or whatever, also full of shit?
Are they not? Or, at least, are they not mistaken? Is the possibility that they're mistaken, or full of shit, or extrapolating from incomplete information, or any number of other things more likely than extraordinary claims about undiscovered physics or aliens?
posted by jason_steakums at 8:36 AM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Are they not? Or, at least, are they not mistaken? Is the possibility that they're mistaken, or full of shit, or extrapolating from incomplete information, or any number of other things more likely than extraordinary claims about undiscovered physics or aliens?
posted by jason_steakums at 8:36 AM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Graves has self-produced two TV shows about UAPs, so far.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:49 AM on July 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:49 AM on July 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
You're talking to someone who, in order to desperately retain their belief, pretends not to understand what "independent" means.
bless you, pyrogenesis, i have a grasp of what 'independent' means. (and it would be more accurate to refer to me retaining uncertainty, not belief.) what i wasn't clear on is precisely what sagc was applying that term to as a threshold for credibility, given that there are various possibilities - for example, would independence from grusch and co personally suffice? from any uap / fringe researchers? from the dod or government generally? from the topic of uaps as a whole (e.g. a scientist who has never previously opined on the topic)?
i can see arguments for all of these, but i'm interested in where others draw the line on this (i.e. what other people see as the kind of 'extraordinary evidence' that they would need to be open to believing grusch's claims).
case in point, from sotonohito:
No I won't take ANYONE's word for it that they totally saw an alien. No one. Not one single person on the entire planet has sufficient credibility to make that sort of claim and expect to be believed.
i don't necessarily share that view, but i respect its consistency. basically, i think grusch - taken as an individual in isolation from his claims - has many of the characteristics, background, responsibilities, etc. that would (in many other contexts) be considered to demonstrate his credibility. i get the sense that people who attack his credibility are generally doing that because of the nature of his claims, not because of anything else about him.
that prompted me to wonder why (or whether) those people would respond differently to someone else making the same claims - the 'direct testimony from a named credible witness' artw mentioned, for example. if the basis for grusch's non-credibility is the nature of his claims, why would you deem any other individual making those claims to be credible? sotonohito gets at one response to that - you don't. multiple corroborating credible witnesses who are independent from each other or gtfo, basically.
I am going to stick with good plain. English words like "fools and grifters,"so feel free to call me names back.
appreciate the offer, but i don't think that would contribute much to the thread.
posted by inire at 8:54 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
bless you, pyrogenesis, i have a grasp of what 'independent' means. (and it would be more accurate to refer to me retaining uncertainty, not belief.) what i wasn't clear on is precisely what sagc was applying that term to as a threshold for credibility, given that there are various possibilities - for example, would independence from grusch and co personally suffice? from any uap / fringe researchers? from the dod or government generally? from the topic of uaps as a whole (e.g. a scientist who has never previously opined on the topic)?
i can see arguments for all of these, but i'm interested in where others draw the line on this (i.e. what other people see as the kind of 'extraordinary evidence' that they would need to be open to believing grusch's claims).
case in point, from sotonohito:
No I won't take ANYONE's word for it that they totally saw an alien. No one. Not one single person on the entire planet has sufficient credibility to make that sort of claim and expect to be believed.
i don't necessarily share that view, but i respect its consistency. basically, i think grusch - taken as an individual in isolation from his claims - has many of the characteristics, background, responsibilities, etc. that would (in many other contexts) be considered to demonstrate his credibility. i get the sense that people who attack his credibility are generally doing that because of the nature of his claims, not because of anything else about him.
that prompted me to wonder why (or whether) those people would respond differently to someone else making the same claims - the 'direct testimony from a named credible witness' artw mentioned, for example. if the basis for grusch's non-credibility is the nature of his claims, why would you deem any other individual making those claims to be credible? sotonohito gets at one response to that - you don't. multiple corroborating credible witnesses who are independent from each other or gtfo, basically.
I am going to stick with good plain. English words like "fools and grifters,"so feel free to call me names back.
appreciate the offer, but i don't think that would contribute much to the thread.
posted by inire at 8:54 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
sotonohito, with respect, I don't want to give too much thought to imagined conversations so I'll take a pass on your hypothetical. I think it's more useful to focus on what people actually did say, what they reported they saw, etc. I still think the word "believe" and the concept of belief w/r/t UAPs are problematic, but #BelieveAirmen.
The fact that no concrete evidence (other than grainy video) has been trotted out in front of me or you doesn't mean much, as far as I'm concerned. I have a hunch that the slow drip of info may start to intensify soon.
Anyway, It's extremely frustrating to me that what's been released is of a quality far below what's considered consumer grade now. The military might be using the sensor equivalent of 8K, 12K whatever huge K number video cameras now and I can understand why something of that quality can't be released, but the fact that the public can't see color 4K or even 2K video is maddening. It doesn't mean better-than-grainy video doesn't exist.
posted by emelenjr at 9:29 AM on July 28, 2023
The fact that no concrete evidence (other than grainy video) has been trotted out in front of me or you doesn't mean much, as far as I'm concerned. I have a hunch that the slow drip of info may start to intensify soon.
Anyway, It's extremely frustrating to me that what's been released is of a quality far below what's considered consumer grade now. The military might be using the sensor equivalent of 8K, 12K whatever huge K number video cameras now and I can understand why something of that quality can't be released, but the fact that the public can't see color 4K or even 2K video is maddening. It doesn't mean better-than-grainy video doesn't exist.
posted by emelenjr at 9:29 AM on July 28, 2023
For that argument to make sense we'd have to believe two things:
1) The US military does NOT consider the fact that it is in possession of UFO's, alien technology, and alien bodies to be classified. Gruch and the others who claim to have learned this are completely free to talk about it and even to say that further evidence exists and that does not violate any secrets or classification.
but also
2) The actual PROOF that they have aliens, UFO's, etc is super duper mega double secret MEGA/ULTRA top classified and no one is ever, ever, under any circumstances at all allowed to see the proof.
indeed. however, that argument makes some assumptions that wouldn't necessarily apply. as i understand it, the 'believer' response would be the following:
- the fact that such claims are true is, like the proof of those claims, super-duper classified and known to a very small number of people.
- large portions of the us military and dod, including dopsr, have no idea that they (or their contractors) are in possession of uaps, etc. so they don't treat such claims as classified, or even as facts that are capable of being classified - they treat them as nonsense, equivalent to claims that the cia is holding bigfoot in a black site. hence dopsr not objecting to grusch making these claims publicly.
- if the word came down from on high that these claims should be treated as classified, that would be seen as confirmation that these claims are true (rather than bigfoot-black site equivalents), which would mean more people were aware of your super-duper secret, which is bad. so you don't do that.
- instead, you could sit in your smoke-filled room and quite comfortably let people claim that the us military has recovered uaps, secure in the knowledge that very few people who matter will believe those claims without proof, which proof is super-duper classified (meaning it can't be provided unless you're willing to do a snowden).
- one of the reasons why that set-up is no longer working quite so well is the whistleblower provisions in last year's national defense authorization act, which provided protections for certain types of disclosures of uap-related information, including classified information. as a result, you still can't disclose that information (proof etc.) publicly, but you can in certain circumstances disclose it to the relevant authorities. that's directly led to current events - grusch apparently assisted in drafting that legislation and is making disclosures that are covered by its protections.
i think the above argument makes sense on its own terms and is a plausible explanation as to why, if the claims are true and knowledge of that fact is as set out in the first couple of bullets, you would see what we're seeing now re some extraordinary claims being made public and other information still being treated as classified.
of course, if the claims aren't true at all, that would also be consistent with what we're seeing (e.g. grusch's public claims are treated as nonsense by dopsr and are in fact nonsense, and the 'classified information' he's providing to congress isn't genuine). so the fact that the above argument makes sense on its own terms doesn't mean you therefore have to accept the truth of grusch's claims - it just means that there are explanations available for the public / classified information situation that aren't internally illogical.
posted by inire at 9:31 AM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
1) The US military does NOT consider the fact that it is in possession of UFO's, alien technology, and alien bodies to be classified. Gruch and the others who claim to have learned this are completely free to talk about it and even to say that further evidence exists and that does not violate any secrets or classification.
but also
2) The actual PROOF that they have aliens, UFO's, etc is super duper mega double secret MEGA/ULTRA top classified and no one is ever, ever, under any circumstances at all allowed to see the proof.
indeed. however, that argument makes some assumptions that wouldn't necessarily apply. as i understand it, the 'believer' response would be the following:
- the fact that such claims are true is, like the proof of those claims, super-duper classified and known to a very small number of people.
- large portions of the us military and dod, including dopsr, have no idea that they (or their contractors) are in possession of uaps, etc. so they don't treat such claims as classified, or even as facts that are capable of being classified - they treat them as nonsense, equivalent to claims that the cia is holding bigfoot in a black site. hence dopsr not objecting to grusch making these claims publicly.
- if the word came down from on high that these claims should be treated as classified, that would be seen as confirmation that these claims are true (rather than bigfoot-black site equivalents), which would mean more people were aware of your super-duper secret, which is bad. so you don't do that.
- instead, you could sit in your smoke-filled room and quite comfortably let people claim that the us military has recovered uaps, secure in the knowledge that very few people who matter will believe those claims without proof, which proof is super-duper classified (meaning it can't be provided unless you're willing to do a snowden).
- one of the reasons why that set-up is no longer working quite so well is the whistleblower provisions in last year's national defense authorization act, which provided protections for certain types of disclosures of uap-related information, including classified information. as a result, you still can't disclose that information (proof etc.) publicly, but you can in certain circumstances disclose it to the relevant authorities. that's directly led to current events - grusch apparently assisted in drafting that legislation and is making disclosures that are covered by its protections.
i think the above argument makes sense on its own terms and is a plausible explanation as to why, if the claims are true and knowledge of that fact is as set out in the first couple of bullets, you would see what we're seeing now re some extraordinary claims being made public and other information still being treated as classified.
of course, if the claims aren't true at all, that would also be consistent with what we're seeing (e.g. grusch's public claims are treated as nonsense by dopsr and are in fact nonsense, and the 'classified information' he's providing to congress isn't genuine). so the fact that the above argument makes sense on its own terms doesn't mean you therefore have to accept the truth of grusch's claims - it just means that there are explanations available for the public / classified information situation that aren't internally illogical.
posted by inire at 9:31 AM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
a discussion - or argument - does tend to involve people responding to one another. and i do also tend to respond when people mischaracterise what i've said, describe me as 'pretending' to believe something or as otherwise not posting in good faith, or engage in imax-level projection about what they imagine me to believe, as you did in the comment i responded to and again just now. but in deference to your sensibilities, i'll keep this as a single paragraph.
posted by inire at 9:51 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by inire at 9:51 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
inire I'm not trying to be rude, but that's exactly the sort of convoluted "logic" used by religious zealots across the world to explain away the lack of miracles or any other evidence for their deity.
I'm curious here, are you arguing for the positon that 'the odds of aliens buzzing around probing rednecks, crashing, and being disected by the US government are extremely close to zero and of the same likelihood that the sun might vanish tomorrow but I can't say they're exactly nil" or are you actually saying you think it's genuinely, for real, plausibile to believe in aliens who are trying but failing to hide, crash landing, and buzzing rednecks and air force jocks?
You seem to be trying to have it both ways, not actually committing to saying you think all this crap is true, but also refusing to admit that it's bunk.
What's up?
posted by sotonohito at 9:51 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm curious here, are you arguing for the positon that 'the odds of aliens buzzing around probing rednecks, crashing, and being disected by the US government are extremely close to zero and of the same likelihood that the sun might vanish tomorrow but I can't say they're exactly nil" or are you actually saying you think it's genuinely, for real, plausibile to believe in aliens who are trying but failing to hide, crash landing, and buzzing rednecks and air force jocks?
You seem to be trying to have it both ways, not actually committing to saying you think all this crap is true, but also refusing to admit that it's bunk.
What's up?
posted by sotonohito at 9:51 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
And, again, the hearing passed. Skinwalker Ranch got its free advertising. And nothing new was released.
SO tell me, when in your educated, non-commital, estimation will the conspiracy deign to tell us plebes The Truth?
posted by sotonohito at 9:53 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
SO tell me, when in your educated, non-commital, estimation will the conspiracy deign to tell us plebes The Truth?
posted by sotonohito at 9:53 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
Re: classified information.
One of the main goals of the UAP Disclosure Act (amendment to the NDAA which is currently being voted on) is to declassify UAP-related information. From the press release: "The UAP Records Collection would carry the presumption of immediate disclosure, which means that a review board would have to provide a reasoning for the documents to stay classified."
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 9:53 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
One of the main goals of the UAP Disclosure Act (amendment to the NDAA which is currently being voted on) is to declassify UAP-related information. From the press release: "The UAP Records Collection would carry the presumption of immediate disclosure, which means that a review board would have to provide a reasoning for the documents to stay classified."
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 9:53 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
but in deference to your sensibilities, i'll keep this as a single paragraph.
How noble of you. Be sure to not commit to actually saying anything though. At least you're consistent in that.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 9:56 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
How noble of you. Be sure to not commit to actually saying anything though. At least you're consistent in that.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 9:56 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
emelenjr Ignore my snark filled dialog and please expalin why you think the US government, in the person of various UFO possessing agencies, would simultaneously NOT classify the simple fact of their possession of UFO's and aliens, but would classify any possible evidence other than just randomly trusting Grusch?
I mean, if I was trying to hide the fact that I owned UFO's I'd make that part classified so Very Honorable People like Grusch can't blab and then say they're staying in the letter of what's classified.
And I'd suggest we don't have higher resolution imagery because the whole thing is a crock of shit that depends on keeping the "evidence" at blurry photos level?
Notice how UFO sightings have gotten vastly less common now that everyone carries around a high definition camera? I don't think that's coincidental. I think it's proof that they were lying all along.
joeyjoejoejr
Yeah right. The hearing showed what we can expect. Dribs and drabs of hints to keep the true believers happy and no proof of anything.
posted by sotonohito at 10:02 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
I mean, if I was trying to hide the fact that I owned UFO's I'd make that part classified so Very Honorable People like Grusch can't blab and then say they're staying in the letter of what's classified.
And I'd suggest we don't have higher resolution imagery because the whole thing is a crock of shit that depends on keeping the "evidence" at blurry photos level?
Notice how UFO sightings have gotten vastly less common now that everyone carries around a high definition camera? I don't think that's coincidental. I think it's proof that they were lying all along.
joeyjoejoejr
Yeah right. The hearing showed what we can expect. Dribs and drabs of hints to keep the true believers happy and no proof of anything.
posted by sotonohito at 10:02 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
Lending credence to UFOs/UAPs/NHBs/WTFery is a good way to conceal other stuff. Said other stuff often being programs that are stovepiped even within the military. Just as the relatively classified aggressor MiGs were used as another level of cover for the stealth programs, to explain heighten security around shared bases.
Area 51 and the Soviet MiGs (and Tacit Blue).
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:06 AM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Area 51 and the Soviet MiGs (and Tacit Blue).
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:06 AM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm not trying to be rude, but that's exactly the sort of convoluted "logic" used by religious zealots across the world to explain away the lack of miracles or any other evidence for their deity.
there are two different things re the argument i set out - is it internally consistent (i.e. are the statements that it makes consistent with each other), and is it externally consistent (i.e. are the statements that it makes consistent with the rest of reality).
i think the argument is internally consistent, and there are plenty of much more convoluted theological, conspiratorial, etc. arguments that are also internally consistent. it's not a particularly high bar, it just means the argument isn't a bunch of mutually contradictory statements. the more important questions are whether the argument is externally consistent - i.e. does it fit the observable facts - and whether any other arguments also fit those facts. if so, figure out which argument is best supported by evidence (see prior posts ad nauseam).
so i don't agree with you that there's anything wrong with the argument's internal logic, but that doesn't mean much. its external consistency is a different story.
I'm curious here, are you arguing for the positon that 'the odds of aliens buzzing around probing rednecks, crashing, and being disected by the US government are extremely close to zero and of the same likelihood that the sun might vanish tomorrow but I can't say they're exactly nil" or are you actually saying you think it's genuinely, for real, plausibile to believe in aliens who are trying but failing to hide, crash landing, and buzzing rednecks and air force jocks?
i'm not arguing for either of those positions - i disagree with the former and don't think the latter is the only possible characterisation of the ALIENS position. see prior comments as to why.
You seem to be trying to have it both ways, not actually committing to saying you think all this crap is true, but also refusing to admit that it's bunk.
as i'm sure you know, there is a whole spectrum of uncertainty between 'i am convinced this is true' and 'i am convinced this is false'. someone who is uncertain is not necessarily "trying to have it both ways", as if the only valid position is a hard yes or no. you may think it's not possible for someone to be genuinely uncertain in this situation, but that would be inaccurate. as i have said elsewhere in this thread (including to you), i can see many possible explanations for this situation, some of which i view as more likely than others. i see the ALIENS explanation as being unlikely but not impossible. that has exercised enough people that it's become the primary topic of discussion in this thread. that's what's up.
posted by inire at 10:17 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
there are two different things re the argument i set out - is it internally consistent (i.e. are the statements that it makes consistent with each other), and is it externally consistent (i.e. are the statements that it makes consistent with the rest of reality).
i think the argument is internally consistent, and there are plenty of much more convoluted theological, conspiratorial, etc. arguments that are also internally consistent. it's not a particularly high bar, it just means the argument isn't a bunch of mutually contradictory statements. the more important questions are whether the argument is externally consistent - i.e. does it fit the observable facts - and whether any other arguments also fit those facts. if so, figure out which argument is best supported by evidence (see prior posts ad nauseam).
so i don't agree with you that there's anything wrong with the argument's internal logic, but that doesn't mean much. its external consistency is a different story.
I'm curious here, are you arguing for the positon that 'the odds of aliens buzzing around probing rednecks, crashing, and being disected by the US government are extremely close to zero and of the same likelihood that the sun might vanish tomorrow but I can't say they're exactly nil" or are you actually saying you think it's genuinely, for real, plausibile to believe in aliens who are trying but failing to hide, crash landing, and buzzing rednecks and air force jocks?
i'm not arguing for either of those positions - i disagree with the former and don't think the latter is the only possible characterisation of the ALIENS position. see prior comments as to why.
You seem to be trying to have it both ways, not actually committing to saying you think all this crap is true, but also refusing to admit that it's bunk.
as i'm sure you know, there is a whole spectrum of uncertainty between 'i am convinced this is true' and 'i am convinced this is false'. someone who is uncertain is not necessarily "trying to have it both ways", as if the only valid position is a hard yes or no. you may think it's not possible for someone to be genuinely uncertain in this situation, but that would be inaccurate. as i have said elsewhere in this thread (including to you), i can see many possible explanations for this situation, some of which i view as more likely than others. i see the ALIENS explanation as being unlikely but not impossible. that has exercised enough people that it's become the primary topic of discussion in this thread. that's what's up.
posted by inire at 10:17 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
OK, what do you disagree with about the former statement?
posted by sagc at 10:19 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by sagc at 10:19 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't have a concrete answer for you, sotonohito, but to me, it's not a stretch to imagine that different organizations within the government are siloed, information is probably over-classified to a degree, and generally people over here don't know what people over there are doing, or what they know, etc. inire above actually offered a theory in several points that speak to this.
I believe it was the hearing directly prior to this recent one where Sean Kirkpatrick of AARO/AATIP whatever it's called now, told a committee that his people are looking into some reports, but thus far they don't have any evidence of extraterrestrial/nonhuman tech or intelligence or bodies. There are some who believe he was lying, considering what he said was different from what Grusch, Fravor and Graves said earlier this week, but if you're not read into the program, then the program is unknown to you, so perhaps Kirkpatrick wasn't lying at all. You don't know what you don't know.
posted by emelenjr at 10:30 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I believe it was the hearing directly prior to this recent one where Sean Kirkpatrick of AARO/AATIP whatever it's called now, told a committee that his people are looking into some reports, but thus far they don't have any evidence of extraterrestrial/nonhuman tech or intelligence or bodies. There are some who believe he was lying, considering what he said was different from what Grusch, Fravor and Graves said earlier this week, but if you're not read into the program, then the program is unknown to you, so perhaps Kirkpatrick wasn't lying at all. You don't know what you don't know.
posted by emelenjr at 10:30 AM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
OK, what do you disagree with about the former statement?
that the odds of aliens, etc. are "extremely close to zero", as covered previously. tl;dr - if reasoning on the basis of the little we know (as i believe sotonohito and others are doing), i estimate the odds as low but not extremely close to zero. but given the amount of relevant information that we don't know, my confidence in that estimation is limited, and i think other people's confidence in their own estimations should also be limited. said others don't tend to think that, hence the disagreement.
posted by inire at 10:31 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
that the odds of aliens, etc. are "extremely close to zero", as covered previously. tl;dr - if reasoning on the basis of the little we know (as i believe sotonohito and others are doing), i estimate the odds as low but not extremely close to zero. but given the amount of relevant information that we don't know, my confidence in that estimation is limited, and i think other people's confidence in their own estimations should also be limited. said others don't tend to think that, hence the disagreement.
posted by inire at 10:31 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
Notice how UFO sightings have gotten vastly less common now that everyone carries around a high definition camera?
i'd be interested to see some data on frequency of sightings over time (not asking you for a citation, to be clear, just wondering if anyone is aware of any). a cursory google led me to the national ufo reporting center, which has apparently received more reports since the introduction of smartphones, but obviously not all reports would be made to them. their data on global reporting frequency goes back further than shown in that chart, incidentally, but i suspect it is far from complete.
if that recent uptick holds true across other data sources, various possible explanations - maybe people are more likely to report a sighting if they have (invariably blurry or long range) images, hoaxers particularly enjoy submitting faked images, people are more likely to report sightings (real or fake) in times of economic or cultural stress which is why the 90s were quiet, ufos / aliens became more culturally present for other reasons, etc.
posted by inire at 11:13 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
i'd be interested to see some data on frequency of sightings over time (not asking you for a citation, to be clear, just wondering if anyone is aware of any). a cursory google led me to the national ufo reporting center, which has apparently received more reports since the introduction of smartphones, but obviously not all reports would be made to them. their data on global reporting frequency goes back further than shown in that chart, incidentally, but i suspect it is far from complete.
if that recent uptick holds true across other data sources, various possible explanations - maybe people are more likely to report a sighting if they have (invariably blurry or long range) images, hoaxers particularly enjoy submitting faked images, people are more likely to report sightings (real or fake) in times of economic or cultural stress which is why the 90s were quiet, ufos / aliens became more culturally present for other reasons, etc.
posted by inire at 11:13 AM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
House Panel Didn’t Expect UFO Whistleblower To Just Dump Alien On Table Like That
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 11:34 AM on July 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 11:34 AM on July 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
tl;dr - if reasoning on the basis of the little we know (as i believe sotonohito and others are doing), i estimate the odds as low but not extremely close to zero. but given the amount of relevant information that we don't know, my confidence in that estimation is limited, and i think other people's confidence in their own estimations should also be limited.
It's the part where you seem to quantify and qualify the relevant information we don't know - that may range from nonexistent to literally anything! - that I just can't get my head around as a sticking point. At the very least I don't see how it could lead you to conclude that others are overconfident in their estimates, it seems like you're allowing yourself certainty in your own estimates that you're not extending to others based on a big unknown question mark. It feels arbitrary to give weight and credence to unknown unknowns unless you really think there's something specific contained in that hypothetical set, and to be honest you do come across like that's what you think but you want to hedge your statements about what you think that might be, because it just seems like digging in really hard for what you're describing as simply reminding people that there might maybe potentially be things outside of our experience and maybe they should adjust their level of confidence (ignoring that others are already taking that possibility into account). That latter bit is just reading tone, and I know, tone and motivation can't reliably be determined through text like this, but it is something that I've been struggling with in this conversation. It feels like trying to naildown exactly what you're digging in on is like trying to nail jello to the wall.
posted by jason_steakums at 11:42 AM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's the part where you seem to quantify and qualify the relevant information we don't know - that may range from nonexistent to literally anything! - that I just can't get my head around as a sticking point. At the very least I don't see how it could lead you to conclude that others are overconfident in their estimates, it seems like you're allowing yourself certainty in your own estimates that you're not extending to others based on a big unknown question mark. It feels arbitrary to give weight and credence to unknown unknowns unless you really think there's something specific contained in that hypothetical set, and to be honest you do come across like that's what you think but you want to hedge your statements about what you think that might be, because it just seems like digging in really hard for what you're describing as simply reminding people that there might maybe potentially be things outside of our experience and maybe they should adjust their level of confidence (ignoring that others are already taking that possibility into account). That latter bit is just reading tone, and I know, tone and motivation can't reliably be determined through text like this, but it is something that I've been struggling with in this conversation. It feels like trying to naildown exactly what you're digging in on is like trying to nail jello to the wall.
posted by jason_steakums at 11:42 AM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
So...maybe accept you both disagree?
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:12 PM on July 28, 2023
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:12 PM on July 28, 2023
So...maybe accept you both disagree?
I mean, that's why I haven't really been replying directly to inire much, I don't think there's a lot more to say. But after that tldr I was just able to articulate a source of the friction a bit more and it might shed a little light on why this seems to be a pretty heavy back and forth between people over what seems like a minor point when it's spelled out?
posted by jason_steakums at 12:53 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
I mean, that's why I haven't really been replying directly to inire much, I don't think there's a lot more to say. But after that tldr I was just able to articulate a source of the friction a bit more and it might shed a little light on why this seems to be a pretty heavy back and forth between people over what seems like a minor point when it's spelled out?
posted by jason_steakums at 12:53 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
i estimate the odds as low but not extremely close to zero
"Extremely close" compared to what?
Zero doesn't scale.
My personal estimation of the odds is that they're low enough that I do not expect to see reliable evidence of alien etc. visitation within what I expect to be the remaining third of my lifetime.
posted by flabdablet at 12:56 PM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
"Extremely close" compared to what?
Zero doesn't scale.
My personal estimation of the odds is that they're low enough that I do not expect to see reliable evidence of alien etc. visitation within what I expect to be the remaining third of my lifetime.
posted by flabdablet at 12:56 PM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
I mean I guess there’s a contortion where you can claim Grulsh’s extraordinary claims of aliens have merit and it’s unfair to say they have no evidence/ are a bunch of grifter nonsense - but then say it’s very unlikely the alien claims are true. Not something I really care to unpick.
posted by Artw at 1:07 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 1:07 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
McDonald's is creating an alien themed spinoff restaurant brand called CosMc's in 2024. What do they know?
posted by paper chromatographologist at 1:28 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by paper chromatographologist at 1:28 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
Give me, like, Neil DeGrasse Tyson and a council of scientists, or a group of national astronomical societies, or basically anyone independent announcing anything?
Tyson believes in alien life on other planets. He is also famous for suggesting that they wouldn't be interested in humans, but this is consistent with a separate concern about them being only interested in the real estate, perhaps seeing a value we don't understand.
I think a problem we have is that different people have different thresholds of evidence, whether that's to believe something or even to think it worth looking into.
Agreed, and there may be those debating a dogmatic worldview not admitted in the debate. At this stage of expanding the investigation the burden of proof is not on anyone to hold their opinions. Certainty isn't available to either side. Alien life is a plausible assumption based on evolution. We can accept as facts that there are at least 100 billion stars in the galaxy, about 50,000 light years across, making our neighborhood quadrant potentially inclusive of millions of water planets, or anyone's guess, but not a dismissively small number.
posted by Brian B. at 1:40 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
Tyson believes in alien life on other planets. He is also famous for suggesting that they wouldn't be interested in humans, but this is consistent with a separate concern about them being only interested in the real estate, perhaps seeing a value we don't understand.
I think a problem we have is that different people have different thresholds of evidence, whether that's to believe something or even to think it worth looking into.
Agreed, and there may be those debating a dogmatic worldview not admitted in the debate. At this stage of expanding the investigation the burden of proof is not on anyone to hold their opinions. Certainty isn't available to either side. Alien life is a plausible assumption based on evolution. We can accept as facts that there are at least 100 billion stars in the galaxy, about 50,000 light years across, making our neighborhood quadrant potentially inclusive of millions of water planets, or anyone's guess, but not a dismissively small number.
posted by Brian B. at 1:40 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
Oh I definitely believe in alien life on other planets and I'm sure that's a common thing among even the most skeptical.
Alien life getting here, though...
posted by jason_steakums at 1:53 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Alien life getting here, though...
posted by jason_steakums at 1:53 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Alien life getting here, though...
If one calculates a possible range of travel, say, double digit light years travel time among a thousand possible planets, then the farther the radius goes, there's the chance that a far more advanced species among a million candidates can make the much longer jump first. In other words, the chances don't necessarily go down with distance. We may hold a strategic significance, as a rare spot near the outer edge of exploration, like Hawaii was.
posted by Brian B. at 2:26 PM on July 28, 2023
If one calculates a possible range of travel, say, double digit light years travel time among a thousand possible planets, then the farther the radius goes, there's the chance that a far more advanced species among a million candidates can make the much longer jump first. In other words, the chances don't necessarily go down with distance. We may hold a strategic significance, as a rare spot near the outer edge of exploration, like Hawaii was.
posted by Brian B. at 2:26 PM on July 28, 2023
The chances don't really change in any meaningful way unless you're taking it as a given that "far more advanced" necessarily exists in a way that overcomes all of the hurdles of interstellar travel, and that's not a given even if you strip it all the way down to generation ships moving as slow as can be. You don't necessarily level up as a civilization into interstellar travel like it's a skill tree with a set destination all life gets to climb, you know? Some problems are just hard enough that they can't be glossed over.
posted by jason_steakums at 2:37 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums at 2:37 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Brian B. You're askind a different question though.
The question is not "do you think life exists elsewhere in the universe?"
The question is "are some of the things people claim to see in the sky alien spacecraft and are aliens visiting Earth and is there a worldwide transnational conspiracy to cover up that fact?"
I can't say for sure that alien life exists, but suspect it probably does. I don't have sufficient evidence to definitively say one way or the other, but my feeling is that it's arrogant and foolhardy to think we're all there is.
But the existence of sapient aliens elsewhere in the universe, or even in a star system just a few light years away, is a completely separate question from the question of whether or not intelligent alien life has made an interstellar trip to buzz jet pilots and probe rednecks.
That proposition is so laughable that I think it's dangerous to treat it seriously as that leads to all manner of other conspiratorial thinking.
posted by sotonohito at 2:39 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
The question is not "do you think life exists elsewhere in the universe?"
The question is "are some of the things people claim to see in the sky alien spacecraft and are aliens visiting Earth and is there a worldwide transnational conspiracy to cover up that fact?"
I can't say for sure that alien life exists, but suspect it probably does. I don't have sufficient evidence to definitively say one way or the other, but my feeling is that it's arrogant and foolhardy to think we're all there is.
But the existence of sapient aliens elsewhere in the universe, or even in a star system just a few light years away, is a completely separate question from the question of whether or not intelligent alien life has made an interstellar trip to buzz jet pilots and probe rednecks.
That proposition is so laughable that I think it's dangerous to treat it seriously as that leads to all manner of other conspiratorial thinking.
posted by sotonohito at 2:39 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
Some problems are just hard enough that they can't be glossed over.
There are notions about exploration that may assume it beginning long ago.
posted by Brian B. at 2:41 PM on July 28, 2023
There are notions about exploration that may assume it beginning long ago.
posted by Brian B. at 2:41 PM on July 28, 2023
Sure, but that doesn't make it a given that you can do it even with all that time.
posted by jason_steakums at 2:46 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by jason_steakums at 2:46 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
The question is "are some of the things people claim to see in the sky alien spacecraft and are aliens visiting Earth and is there a worldwide transnational conspiracy to cover up that fact?"
I would assume only drone craft, and I would only laugh if they were actually piloted by red herrings, or similar.
posted by Brian B. at 2:55 PM on July 28, 2023
I would assume only drone craft, and I would only laugh if they were actually piloted by red herrings, or similar.
posted by Brian B. at 2:55 PM on July 28, 2023
I don't find it at all implausible that aliens could reach us. But I imagine that if they do ever reach us, they're going to be so far beyond us in technology that there is no way a handful of them will find themselves sandbagged by a bunch of apes wielding primitive projectile weapons and dumped to rot (literally or figuratively) underneath some military base. Or be "hidden" against their will by a rogue coterie of parapolitical spooks in what is only one, if the most powerful, of this backwater world's polities. Or discovered accidentally by the same.
If they ever do arrive, and they want to be seen, then it's going to be a Revelation 1:7 moment, and if they do not want to be seen, no one, including the United States military, is going to.
posted by AdamCSnider at 3:47 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
If they ever do arrive, and they want to be seen, then it's going to be a Revelation 1:7 moment, and if they do not want to be seen, no one, including the United States military, is going to.
posted by AdamCSnider at 3:47 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
100% agree. If they're from far away and they manage to get here, they'll be way ahead of us in every way.
I happen to think they're not from as far away as many assume, and I think the people who are arguing "NHI beings arriving on earth is preposterous because physics" are barking up the wrong tree. I don't have proof that I'm right or wrong. So far, most of the evidence being talked about in some circles isn't actually for my consumption.
posted by emelenjr at 4:02 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I happen to think they're not from as far away as many assume, and I think the people who are arguing "NHI beings arriving on earth is preposterous because physics" are barking up the wrong tree. I don't have proof that I'm right or wrong. So far, most of the evidence being talked about in some circles isn't actually for my consumption.
posted by emelenjr at 4:02 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I do not understand the attitude in which you can simultaneously believe that the military has been hiding literal extraterrestrial aliens for decades, and at the same time meekly endorse letting 'the process' work itself out in more secret hearings.
If you think there is any remote possibility at all that the US government, in conspiracy with the Vatican and the Italian government, has been hiding recovered alien spacecraft and 'biologicals' for decades, then you shouldn't trust the process, you should be telling your representative "fuck the military's cold war secrecy fetish, show everyone the aliens!".
posted by Pyry at 5:14 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
If you think there is any remote possibility at all that the US government, in conspiracy with the Vatican and the Italian government, has been hiding recovered alien spacecraft and 'biologicals' for decades, then you shouldn't trust the process, you should be telling your representative "fuck the military's cold war secrecy fetish, show everyone the aliens!".
posted by Pyry at 5:14 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Like if Grusch has actual evidence about a military industrial complex conspiracy to hide aliens, he should fucking take one for the team and publicly disclose everything regardless of personal consequences.
posted by Pyry at 5:17 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Pyry at 5:17 PM on July 28, 2023 [2 favorites]
“Let's talk about the UAP hearing....”—Beau of the Fifth Column, 28 July 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 6:32 PM on July 28, 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 6:32 PM on July 28, 2023
I would assume only drone craft
I can't bring myself to assume that.
The only class of drone craft I've ever seen offered up as having even a shred of plausibility for existing in anything even remotely close to sufficient numbers are "von Neumann probes", i.e. self-replicators, and I don't think they'd work.
A self-replicating machine is functionally a lifeform, so we can use what we've observed about life to make reasonable predictions about how von Neumann probes are likely to end up behaving.
Every lifeform needs, at a minimum, some way of concentrating enough energy from its environment to power its own processes and enough material from its environment to maintain its own structure and construct its offspring.
It also needs some way to generate variability in its offspring in order to remain viable. The less variability a lifeform is capable of, the more brittle it becomes in its response to changes in its environment. Any lifeform needs enough reproductive variability to enable natural selection; without that, it's relatively quickly going to be out-competed by other lifeforms that have it.
It is massively more energy- and materials-efficient to reproduce by taking advantage of self-assembly work already done by some other lifeform than it is to extract and process everything required completely from first principles. So the first vNp lucky enough to shake off its makers' presumed original prohibition against cannibalizing its peers is going to have an enormous reproductive advantage. No such prohibition is going to be evolutionarily stable.
That, in turn, is going to select heavily against leaving. Once eating its peers becomes a workable strategy, the growth rate of a lifeform is rapidly going to turn non-exponential as heavy competition for local resources sets in. The dominant bias of life is toward local concentration, speciation and diversification, not expansion and exploration.
Life spreads beyond life-rich regions at a very low rate compared to its activity within them, just because biodiversity is such a huge win. The species that dominate such spread as does occur do so by virtue of having relatively large populations at source rather than any inbuilt drive for exploration and expansion. The probable fate of a lifeform that starts out with some degree of interstellar survivability is therefore highly unlikely to be galactic ubiquity; rather, I would expect to see rapid unscheduled disassembly by any existing ecologies it encounters or, failing that, the same kind of local biodiversity loss followed by either population crash or assimilation that we see for invasive terrestrial lifeforms.
Space is thin. The idea that a species is ever going to do well, reproductively speaking, in that niche is just not one that looks to me in any way plausible.
posted by flabdablet at 10:13 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
I can't bring myself to assume that.
The only class of drone craft I've ever seen offered up as having even a shred of plausibility for existing in anything even remotely close to sufficient numbers are "von Neumann probes", i.e. self-replicators, and I don't think they'd work.
A self-replicating machine is functionally a lifeform, so we can use what we've observed about life to make reasonable predictions about how von Neumann probes are likely to end up behaving.
Every lifeform needs, at a minimum, some way of concentrating enough energy from its environment to power its own processes and enough material from its environment to maintain its own structure and construct its offspring.
It also needs some way to generate variability in its offspring in order to remain viable. The less variability a lifeform is capable of, the more brittle it becomes in its response to changes in its environment. Any lifeform needs enough reproductive variability to enable natural selection; without that, it's relatively quickly going to be out-competed by other lifeforms that have it.
It is massively more energy- and materials-efficient to reproduce by taking advantage of self-assembly work already done by some other lifeform than it is to extract and process everything required completely from first principles. So the first vNp lucky enough to shake off its makers' presumed original prohibition against cannibalizing its peers is going to have an enormous reproductive advantage. No such prohibition is going to be evolutionarily stable.
That, in turn, is going to select heavily against leaving. Once eating its peers becomes a workable strategy, the growth rate of a lifeform is rapidly going to turn non-exponential as heavy competition for local resources sets in. The dominant bias of life is toward local concentration, speciation and diversification, not expansion and exploration.
Life spreads beyond life-rich regions at a very low rate compared to its activity within them, just because biodiversity is such a huge win. The species that dominate such spread as does occur do so by virtue of having relatively large populations at source rather than any inbuilt drive for exploration and expansion. The probable fate of a lifeform that starts out with some degree of interstellar survivability is therefore highly unlikely to be galactic ubiquity; rather, I would expect to see rapid unscheduled disassembly by any existing ecologies it encounters or, failing that, the same kind of local biodiversity loss followed by either population crash or assimilation that we see for invasive terrestrial lifeforms.
Space is thin. The idea that a species is ever going to do well, reproductively speaking, in that niche is just not one that looks to me in any way plausible.
posted by flabdablet at 10:13 PM on July 28, 2023 [4 favorites]
Whenever space nerds go on about "von neuman machines" etc, I have always wanted to ask, you just mean an organism, right?
Space nerds should learn biology.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 11:04 PM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Space nerds should learn biology.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 11:04 PM on July 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
If Grusch was talking about real extremely secret programs then anything he said, even just confirming that those secret programs exist in a public hearing would be breaking the law. Not to mention all the extra juicy details he added like descriptions of ships, alien pilots, sharing tech with industry. Also he can’t just go into the SCIF and share the more secret details with members of Congress or anyone else since these are allegedly secure compartmentalized / code word restricted programs. If you are not specifically cleared to know and you are not specifically authorized to read someone in; then you can’t.
posted by interogative mood at 11:33 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 11:33 PM on July 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's the part where you seem to quantify and qualify the relevant information we don't know - that may range from nonexistent to literally anything! - that I just can't get my head around as a sticking point. At the very least I don't see how it could lead you to conclude that others are overconfident in their estimates, it seems like you're allowing yourself certainty in your own estimates that you're not extending to others based on a big unknown question mark. It feels arbitrary to give weight and credence to unknown unknowns unless you really think there's something specific contained in that hypothetical set, and to be honest you do come across like that's what you think but you want to hedge your statements about what you think that might be
i'm quantifying the potentially relevant information we don't know, and only insofar as i'm saying there is a lot of it (without being able to be more specific about how much, because we're talking about both known and unknown unknowns).
i think it is obviously true that there's a lot of it - you can look at this thread and see the sheer number of things that have been brought up as being (i) relevant to whether grusch's claims are true or not and (ii) unknown to us. you can also consider, in principle, how much relevant information we lack about whether aliens exist and what their capabilities and motivations are if they do exist, and about the extent to which our current understanding of physics is incomplete, as discussed previously. that set of information clearly does contain 'specific' (as you call it) information that would be capable of proving or disproving grusch's claims, and i don't see why that would be a controversial statement, so happy to say it without hedging.
given the above, i think it's clear why the hard skeptical position (described above) is overconfident. the weak skeptical position is not as overconfident (insofar as it's at least caveated on the basis of what we know), but it's still taking information that is open to multiple interpretations (of varying probability) and concluding that it can only support the 'not-aliens' interpretation, which i think is an overreach. i've also been quite clear that i don't have certainty in my own estimates, as stated in the comment you're replying to (and quoted!).
it just seems like digging in really hard for what you're describing as simply reminding people that there might maybe potentially be things outside of our experience and maybe they should adjust their level of confidence (ignoring that others are already taking that possibility into account). That latter bit is just reading tone, and I know, tone and motivation can't reliably be determined through text like this, but it is something that I've been struggling with in this conversation. It feels like trying to naildown exactly what you're digging in on is like trying to nail jello to the wall.
you say that "others are already taking that possibility into account" - i.e. the possibility that their level of confidence should be adjusted. i disagree that this is broadly applicable - many posters have been at pains to emphasise that they don't think their level of confidence does need to be adjusted, which is our principal (and ongoing) point of disagreement, rather than something being ignored. as to 'digging in really hard', 'nailing jello', etc. - the fact that my position is one of uncertainty doesn't thereby make it jello-like - one can be very clear that one is uncertain and why. i've expressed a position and maintained it, making it repeatedly clear what points i'm 'digging in on' - as have pretty much all the other posters in this thread. the length and detail at which those positions have been expressed is partly reflective of the fact that this is a 600+ comment thread, and partly of the intensity of the disagreement. which has surprised me at times, given that i (like you) started out by seeing this as a pretty minor point of disagreement. the reactions suggest others don't see it that way.
posted by inire at 12:00 AM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
i'm quantifying the potentially relevant information we don't know, and only insofar as i'm saying there is a lot of it (without being able to be more specific about how much, because we're talking about both known and unknown unknowns).
i think it is obviously true that there's a lot of it - you can look at this thread and see the sheer number of things that have been brought up as being (i) relevant to whether grusch's claims are true or not and (ii) unknown to us. you can also consider, in principle, how much relevant information we lack about whether aliens exist and what their capabilities and motivations are if they do exist, and about the extent to which our current understanding of physics is incomplete, as discussed previously. that set of information clearly does contain 'specific' (as you call it) information that would be capable of proving or disproving grusch's claims, and i don't see why that would be a controversial statement, so happy to say it without hedging.
given the above, i think it's clear why the hard skeptical position (described above) is overconfident. the weak skeptical position is not as overconfident (insofar as it's at least caveated on the basis of what we know), but it's still taking information that is open to multiple interpretations (of varying probability) and concluding that it can only support the 'not-aliens' interpretation, which i think is an overreach. i've also been quite clear that i don't have certainty in my own estimates, as stated in the comment you're replying to (and quoted!).
it just seems like digging in really hard for what you're describing as simply reminding people that there might maybe potentially be things outside of our experience and maybe they should adjust their level of confidence (ignoring that others are already taking that possibility into account). That latter bit is just reading tone, and I know, tone and motivation can't reliably be determined through text like this, but it is something that I've been struggling with in this conversation. It feels like trying to naildown exactly what you're digging in on is like trying to nail jello to the wall.
you say that "others are already taking that possibility into account" - i.e. the possibility that their level of confidence should be adjusted. i disagree that this is broadly applicable - many posters have been at pains to emphasise that they don't think their level of confidence does need to be adjusted, which is our principal (and ongoing) point of disagreement, rather than something being ignored. as to 'digging in really hard', 'nailing jello', etc. - the fact that my position is one of uncertainty doesn't thereby make it jello-like - one can be very clear that one is uncertain and why. i've expressed a position and maintained it, making it repeatedly clear what points i'm 'digging in on' - as have pretty much all the other posters in this thread. the length and detail at which those positions have been expressed is partly reflective of the fact that this is a 600+ comment thread, and partly of the intensity of the disagreement. which has surprised me at times, given that i (like you) started out by seeing this as a pretty minor point of disagreement. the reactions suggest others don't see it that way.
posted by inire at 12:00 AM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
I do not understand the attitude in which you can simultaneously believe that the military has been hiding literal extraterrestrial aliens for decades, and at the same time meekly endorse letting 'the process' work itself out in more secret hearings.
If you think there is any remote possibility at all that the US government, in conspiracy with the Vatican and the Italian government, has been hiding recovered alien spacecraft and 'biologicals' for decades, then you shouldn't trust the process, you should be telling your representative "fuck the military's cold war secrecy fetish, show everyone the aliens!".
as far as i can tell from skimming r/ufos, this is precisely what believers are doing (while also accepting that if there isn't going to be an immediate blanket declassification, which seems probable, 'the process' is a lot better than nothing).
Like if Grusch has actual evidence about a military industrial complex conspiracy to hide aliens, he should fucking take one for the team and publicly disclose everything regardless of personal consequences.
it's easy to suggest that other people do a snowden, isn't it? "please, could you commit multiple criminal offences and condemn yourself to decades in prison so that i can be convinced of aliens all in one go, rather than having to wait." when there's a specific, protected alternative route to disclose that information, the fact that it takes somewhat longer than doing a snowden is a shame, but doesn't seem like a particularly strong reason to go to prison.
posted by inire at 12:11 AM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
If you think there is any remote possibility at all that the US government, in conspiracy with the Vatican and the Italian government, has been hiding recovered alien spacecraft and 'biologicals' for decades, then you shouldn't trust the process, you should be telling your representative "fuck the military's cold war secrecy fetish, show everyone the aliens!".
as far as i can tell from skimming r/ufos, this is precisely what believers are doing (while also accepting that if there isn't going to be an immediate blanket declassification, which seems probable, 'the process' is a lot better than nothing).
Like if Grusch has actual evidence about a military industrial complex conspiracy to hide aliens, he should fucking take one for the team and publicly disclose everything regardless of personal consequences.
it's easy to suggest that other people do a snowden, isn't it? "please, could you commit multiple criminal offences and condemn yourself to decades in prison so that i can be convinced of aliens all in one go, rather than having to wait." when there's a specific, protected alternative route to disclose that information, the fact that it takes somewhat longer than doing a snowden is a shame, but doesn't seem like a particularly strong reason to go to prison.
posted by inire at 12:11 AM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
Inire just talking publically about a classified program with the details he provided at the hearing would constitute a “Snowden” if such a program actually existed and the things he described occurred.
posted by interogative mood at 2:09 AM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 2:09 AM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
Inire just talking publically about a classified program with the details he provided at the hearing would constitute a “Snowden” if such a program actually existed and the things he described occurred.
sorry, i was unclear. when i refer to 'doing a snowden', i mean 'publicly releasing information of sufficient quantity and quality that skeptics consider it to be strong evidence for the underlying claim' - i.e. thousands of photos and video of recovered craft and alien bodies, extensive scientific analysis of technical and biological data, internal memos and correspondence, personnel lists, credible evidence of external contractors being involved, other stuff that's currently classified, etc.. i understood that to be what pyry was referring to. snowden wasn't especially notable for asserting that the nsa was running global surveillance programs in problematic ways - he was notable for illegally releasing thousands of classified documents that clearly showed that was happening.
as to whether grusch's public statements are breaking the law or otherwise 'doing a snowden', it appears they are not. it was stated when the debrief article came out that his public claims had been cleared for open publication by dopsr (see here, for example), so he's fine to say those things publicly (whether in media interviews or open congressional hearings).
as to why dopsr cleared those claims without (presumably) giving him the go-ahead to disclose every other piece of classified information he might want to disclose, you could come up with various explanations for that that are consistent with 'it's aliens' and 'it's not aliens' - i outlined one above.
posted by inire at 3:22 AM on July 29, 2023
sorry, i was unclear. when i refer to 'doing a snowden', i mean 'publicly releasing information of sufficient quantity and quality that skeptics consider it to be strong evidence for the underlying claim' - i.e. thousands of photos and video of recovered craft and alien bodies, extensive scientific analysis of technical and biological data, internal memos and correspondence, personnel lists, credible evidence of external contractors being involved, other stuff that's currently classified, etc.. i understood that to be what pyry was referring to. snowden wasn't especially notable for asserting that the nsa was running global surveillance programs in problematic ways - he was notable for illegally releasing thousands of classified documents that clearly showed that was happening.
as to whether grusch's public statements are breaking the law or otherwise 'doing a snowden', it appears they are not. it was stated when the debrief article came out that his public claims had been cleared for open publication by dopsr (see here, for example), so he's fine to say those things publicly (whether in media interviews or open congressional hearings).
as to why dopsr cleared those claims without (presumably) giving him the go-ahead to disclose every other piece of classified information he might want to disclose, you could come up with various explanations for that that are consistent with 'it's aliens' and 'it's not aliens' - i outlined one above.
posted by inire at 3:22 AM on July 29, 2023
I can't bring myself to assume that.
It's something we would do. Little green beings are a Hollywood metaphor, else viewers would wonder who sent the thing. It seems impractical to put too much expectation on these idealized probes since sending the easiest drone form into a zone capable of normal information gathering solves the problem. The first encounters that make sense are not a stretch of the imagination, since they're in fighter jets, mostly trained engineers with perfect vision and no agenda beyond their objective, and focused enough to be discouraged to report anything to damage their careers. In spite of the organizational blindness, word trickles out that something impressed or humbled them. It doesn't most likely happen on some lonely road where the random witness assumes that aliens are interested in them personally, but rather in an elite human craft that was worth checking out up close to prompt a reaction to observe. All those other stories simply flatter our existence, but it was always about the pesky jet and the planet itself. Humans are wildlife.
posted by Brian B. at 5:29 AM on July 29, 2023
It's something we would do. Little green beings are a Hollywood metaphor, else viewers would wonder who sent the thing. It seems impractical to put too much expectation on these idealized probes since sending the easiest drone form into a zone capable of normal information gathering solves the problem. The first encounters that make sense are not a stretch of the imagination, since they're in fighter jets, mostly trained engineers with perfect vision and no agenda beyond their objective, and focused enough to be discouraged to report anything to damage their careers. In spite of the organizational blindness, word trickles out that something impressed or humbled them. It doesn't most likely happen on some lonely road where the random witness assumes that aliens are interested in them personally, but rather in an elite human craft that was worth checking out up close to prompt a reaction to observe. All those other stories simply flatter our existence, but it was always about the pesky jet and the planet itself. Humans are wildlife.
posted by Brian B. at 5:29 AM on July 29, 2023
DOPSR cleared his written statement and his complaint. That doesn’t mean they authorized him to release any secrets. It means this statement doesn’t contain any secrets. His lawsuit says he wasn’t given access to those programs and was retaliated against for attempting to get access. Sharing anything about a special access program either inside a SCIF or outside it with people who are not authorized is illegal. The people who told Grusch about these programs if they were actually involved would have broken the law and it would be illegal for him to share those details even if he wasn’t part of the program — because it is still classified. Just because you have a security clearance doesn’t mean you can just chat with anyone else with a clearance about any secret you might know it doesn’t matter if you are in a SCIF or not.
posted by interogative mood at 5:50 AM on July 29, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:50 AM on July 29, 2023 [4 favorites]
DOPSR cleared his written statement and his complaint. That doesn’t mean they authorized him to release any secrets. It means this statement doesn’t contain any secrets.
it does not mean that. it means that to dopsr's knowledge that statement doesn't contain any classified information.
as to why that knowledge qualification and the distinction between a secret (anything someone doesn't want others to know) and classified information (anything that has gone through the classification process) might be relevant, see above.
Sharing anything about a special access program either inside a SCIF or outside it with people who are not authorized is illegal. The people who told Grusch about these programs if they were actually involved would have broken the law and it would be illegal for him to share those details even if he wasn’t part of the program — because it is still classified.
...unless you share that information in accordance with provisions that allow you to do so. the uap task force was responsible for gathering information about uaps, including classified information, and grusch has stated that he was specifically tasked by the task force director to deal with special / compartmented access programs. i haven't taken the time to look up the various bits of legislation relating to the task force, so i don't know how far its information-gathering powers extended (e.g. whether those working for the task force were entitled to be read into relevant saps so that they could obtain the necessary information), but it is far from obvious that grusch received classified information illegally.
as to grusch's own sharing of information, my understanding is that this has been covered by the whistleblower protection provisions set out in last year's ndaa (ctrl-f 'sec. 1673' to get to the relevant provisions). those provisions permit the sharing of classified information, regardless of any ndas or other legal restrictions, as long as the sharing is done via an authorised reporting mechanism. there are restrictions on any report that is considered likely to relate to a sap, provided that the sap in question "has been explicitly and clearly reported to the congressional defense committees or the congressional intelligence committees, and is documented as meeting those criteria", which grusch has alleged was not the case here. so again, far from obvious that any sharing of classified / sap-derived information by grusch would be illegal, as long as that sharing is non-public and within the scope of the whistleblower protections.
posted by inire at 6:58 AM on July 29, 2023
it does not mean that. it means that to dopsr's knowledge that statement doesn't contain any classified information.
as to why that knowledge qualification and the distinction between a secret (anything someone doesn't want others to know) and classified information (anything that has gone through the classification process) might be relevant, see above.
Sharing anything about a special access program either inside a SCIF or outside it with people who are not authorized is illegal. The people who told Grusch about these programs if they were actually involved would have broken the law and it would be illegal for him to share those details even if he wasn’t part of the program — because it is still classified.
...unless you share that information in accordance with provisions that allow you to do so. the uap task force was responsible for gathering information about uaps, including classified information, and grusch has stated that he was specifically tasked by the task force director to deal with special / compartmented access programs. i haven't taken the time to look up the various bits of legislation relating to the task force, so i don't know how far its information-gathering powers extended (e.g. whether those working for the task force were entitled to be read into relevant saps so that they could obtain the necessary information), but it is far from obvious that grusch received classified information illegally.
as to grusch's own sharing of information, my understanding is that this has been covered by the whistleblower protection provisions set out in last year's ndaa (ctrl-f 'sec. 1673' to get to the relevant provisions). those provisions permit the sharing of classified information, regardless of any ndas or other legal restrictions, as long as the sharing is done via an authorised reporting mechanism. there are restrictions on any report that is considered likely to relate to a sap, provided that the sap in question "has been explicitly and clearly reported to the congressional defense committees or the congressional intelligence committees, and is documented as meeting those criteria", which grusch has alleged was not the case here. so again, far from obvious that any sharing of classified / sap-derived information by grusch would be illegal, as long as that sharing is non-public and within the scope of the whistleblower protections.
posted by inire at 6:58 AM on July 29, 2023
I'm still baffled by the whole idea that it's TOTALLY ok for someone to tell us that the government is hiding alien corpses and football field sized UOF's that they're respectively dissecting and reverse engineering, and that's fine, that's not secret, that's not classified, he won't get in any trouble at all for telling us about the existence of what, if it was real, would be a project of Manhattan Project level importance.
BUT
Somehow it's NOT ok for him to tell us anything that could prove the first thing is true.
Seriously, can someone explain that to me? During WWII the mere existence of the Manhattan Project and its end goal was one of them most tightly held secrets that existed, anyone like Grusch who'd gone around blabbing to everyone that the US government was trying to build an atomic bomb would have been in violation of all manner of laws and quickly arrested. Shit man, they'd have CIA (or whatever) assassins trying to kill anyone suspected of leaking that.
I mean, from my POV the fact of a secret government program to dissect alien corpses and reverse engineer UFO's would be the big secret, the one they'd kill to keep and the one that would be so tightly classified that merely breathing one word about it would be treason.
Once that's public knowledge how the hell is 'and here are the photos' supposed to be mega secret?
posted by sotonohito at 9:52 AM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
BUT
Somehow it's NOT ok for him to tell us anything that could prove the first thing is true.
Seriously, can someone explain that to me? During WWII the mere existence of the Manhattan Project and its end goal was one of them most tightly held secrets that existed, anyone like Grusch who'd gone around blabbing to everyone that the US government was trying to build an atomic bomb would have been in violation of all manner of laws and quickly arrested. Shit man, they'd have CIA (or whatever) assassins trying to kill anyone suspected of leaking that.
I mean, from my POV the fact of a secret government program to dissect alien corpses and reverse engineer UFO's would be the big secret, the one they'd kill to keep and the one that would be so tightly classified that merely breathing one word about it would be treason.
Once that's public knowledge how the hell is 'and here are the photos' supposed to be mega secret?
posted by sotonohito at 9:52 AM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
Seriously, can someone explain that to me?
see above.
During WWII the mere existence of the Manhattan Project and its end goal was one of them most tightly held secrets that existed, anyone like Grusch who'd gone around blabbing to everyone that the US government was trying to build an atomic bomb would have been in violation of all manner of laws and quickly arrested. Shit man, they'd have CIA (or whatever) assassins trying to kill anyone suspected of leaking that.
the manhattan project had more than 1,500 leaks, including those of actual project information (i.e. not just re the fact of its existence).
posted by inire at 10:20 AM on July 29, 2023
see above.
During WWII the mere existence of the Manhattan Project and its end goal was one of them most tightly held secrets that existed, anyone like Grusch who'd gone around blabbing to everyone that the US government was trying to build an atomic bomb would have been in violation of all manner of laws and quickly arrested. Shit man, they'd have CIA (or whatever) assassins trying to kill anyone suspected of leaking that.
the manhattan project had more than 1,500 leaks, including those of actual project information (i.e. not just re the fact of its existence).
posted by inire at 10:20 AM on July 29, 2023
> the manhattan project had more than 1,500 leaks
And yet, it was a secret held as tightly as they could. Seems relevant to current discussions.
posted by Turd Ferguson at 10:29 AM on July 29, 2023 [9 favorites]
And yet, it was a secret held as tightly as they could. Seems relevant to current discussions.
posted by Turd Ferguson at 10:29 AM on July 29, 2023 [9 favorites]
It makes some sense if biological whistleblowers were a discrediting opportunity for agencies to feed bad information, if one was hiding something unrelated but close enough. Anyone who mentions the Vatican is exposing a broad method of persuasion towards rejection by most, but embraced by wobbly evangelicals.
posted by Brian B. at 10:46 AM on July 29, 2023
posted by Brian B. at 10:46 AM on July 29, 2023
And yet, it was a secret held as tightly as they could. Seems relevant to current discussions.
it was held as tightly as they could, bearing in mind that there were approximately 129,000 people working on it at its height, including around 3,500 military and civil service personnel. one can imagine that a project involving many fewer people (which leslie kean has suggested is the case here) would have correspondingly fewer leaks. it’s also worth noting that there have been many purported leaks over the past 80-odd years, some of which - if grusch’s claims were true - could have been genuine. so believers are not necessarily asserting that there have been no prior leaks - they’re asserting there have been no prior leaks that were taken seriously.
posted by inire at 11:10 AM on July 29, 2023
it was held as tightly as they could, bearing in mind that there were approximately 129,000 people working on it at its height, including around 3,500 military and civil service personnel. one can imagine that a project involving many fewer people (which leslie kean has suggested is the case here) would have correspondingly fewer leaks. it’s also worth noting that there have been many purported leaks over the past 80-odd years, some of which - if grusch’s claims were true - could have been genuine. so believers are not necessarily asserting that there have been no prior leaks - they’re asserting there have been no prior leaks that were taken seriously.
posted by inire at 11:10 AM on July 29, 2023
The UFO congressional hearing was 'insulting' to US employees, a top Pentagon official says
Sean Kirkpatrick again, moving from passively defensive to a more active stance:
He writes in part, “I cannot let yesterday’s hearing pass without sharing how insulting it was to the officers of the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community who chose to join AARO, many with not unreasonable anxieties about the career risks this would entail.”
“They are truth-seekers, as am I,” Kirkpatrick said. “But you certainly would not get that impression from yesterday’s hearing.”
And:
Kirkpatrick wrote, “AARO has yet to find any credible evidence to support the allegations of any reverse engineering program for non-human technology.”
He had briefed reporters in December that the Pentagon was investigating “several hundreds” of new reports following a push to have pilots and others come forward with any sightings.
Kirkpatrick wrote in his letter that allegations of “retaliation, to include physical assault and hints of murder, are extraordinarily serious, which is why law enforcement is a critical member of the AARO team, specifically to address and take swift action should anyone come forward with such claims."
“Yet, contrary to assertions made in the hearing, the central source of those allegations has refused to speak with AARO,” Kirkpatrick said. He did not explicitly name Grusch, who alleged he faced retaliation and declined to answer when a congressman asked him if anyone had been murdered to hide information about UFOs.
posted by Artw at 11:27 AM on July 29, 2023 [5 favorites]
Sean Kirkpatrick again, moving from passively defensive to a more active stance:
He writes in part, “I cannot let yesterday’s hearing pass without sharing how insulting it was to the officers of the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community who chose to join AARO, many with not unreasonable anxieties about the career risks this would entail.”
“They are truth-seekers, as am I,” Kirkpatrick said. “But you certainly would not get that impression from yesterday’s hearing.”
And:
Kirkpatrick wrote, “AARO has yet to find any credible evidence to support the allegations of any reverse engineering program for non-human technology.”
He had briefed reporters in December that the Pentagon was investigating “several hundreds” of new reports following a push to have pilots and others come forward with any sightings.
Kirkpatrick wrote in his letter that allegations of “retaliation, to include physical assault and hints of murder, are extraordinarily serious, which is why law enforcement is a critical member of the AARO team, specifically to address and take swift action should anyone come forward with such claims."
“Yet, contrary to assertions made in the hearing, the central source of those allegations has refused to speak with AARO,” Kirkpatrick said. He did not explicitly name Grusch, who alleged he faced retaliation and declined to answer when a congressman asked him if anyone had been murdered to hide information about UFOs.
posted by Artw at 11:27 AM on July 29, 2023 [5 favorites]
DOPSR's entire job is to ensure that publications, public congressional testimony, etc do not contain classified information. They can review it as long as they want and they don't clear things unless there is certainty. They don't operate on the standard to "to our knowledge this isn't classified"
The 2022 NDAA includes two sections 1673 and 1683. It does not allow anyone to just tell any member of Congress. The reporting is by the Director of the AARO to specific congressional committees and top congressional leaders (Majority Leaders and Minority Leaders and Speaker of the House). The House Oversight Committee is not on the list. 1673.2 and 1673.4.a also include some very specific carve outs related to Special Access Programs. The reports to congress only apply to "Authorized Disclosures" and before those disclosures can be done they have to clear restrictions in 1673.2.
According to Grusch he was retaliated against for attempting to get access to programs he thought were within AARO and his remit, however he didn't get access to those programs.
posted by interogative mood at 12:39 PM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
The 2022 NDAA includes two sections 1673 and 1683. It does not allow anyone to just tell any member of Congress. The reporting is by the Director of the AARO to specific congressional committees and top congressional leaders (Majority Leaders and Minority Leaders and Speaker of the House). The House Oversight Committee is not on the list. 1673.2 and 1673.4.a also include some very specific carve outs related to Special Access Programs. The reports to congress only apply to "Authorized Disclosures" and before those disclosures can be done they have to clear restrictions in 1673.2.
According to Grusch he was retaliated against for attempting to get access to programs he thought were within AARO and his remit, however he didn't get access to those programs.
posted by interogative mood at 12:39 PM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
Why is "maybe the crashed UFO's are drones" seen as a reasonable excuse for a hyper advanced civilization crashing anything? We don't build our drones to crash, I can't really see an interstellar civilization deciding to build really shitty drones for planetary scouting.
The whole crash landed UFO thing is a relic of the origin of UFO mythology back in the early era of mechanical vehicles when crashes and breakdowns were frequent so people tended to assume they would always be frequent. As we advance we see that's not the case, and further the early thinkers about interstellar travel badly underestimated the enormous technological gulf between us and any interstellar civilization.
We don't have that excuse for foolish thinking today. There won't be any crash landed UFO's. The idea of an interstellar civilization crashing or having mechanical failure resulting in a crash for anything at all, crewed or drone, is absurd.
posted by sotonohito at 2:07 PM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
The whole crash landed UFO thing is a relic of the origin of UFO mythology back in the early era of mechanical vehicles when crashes and breakdowns were frequent so people tended to assume they would always be frequent. As we advance we see that's not the case, and further the early thinkers about interstellar travel badly underestimated the enormous technological gulf between us and any interstellar civilization.
We don't have that excuse for foolish thinking today. There won't be any crash landed UFO's. The idea of an interstellar civilization crashing or having mechanical failure resulting in a crash for anything at all, crewed or drone, is absurd.
posted by sotonohito at 2:07 PM on July 29, 2023 [2 favorites]
They don't operate on the standard to "to our knowledge this isn't classified"
strictly speaking they do, in the sense that if the people who know a thing is classified don't tell them it is classified, they don't know it's classified (and therefore don't act on it) because they're not magically aware of every classification decision. relatedly, as addressed above, everything classified is secret, but not every secret is classified - things can in practice be kept secret without being classified, and dopsr's remit covers what is classified, not what is (more broadly) secret.
posted by inire at 2:57 PM on July 29, 2023
strictly speaking they do, in the sense that if the people who know a thing is classified don't tell them it is classified, they don't know it's classified (and therefore don't act on it) because they're not magically aware of every classification decision. relatedly, as addressed above, everything classified is secret, but not every secret is classified - things can in practice be kept secret without being classified, and dopsr's remit covers what is classified, not what is (more broadly) secret.
posted by inire at 2:57 PM on July 29, 2023
I haven't watched the whole thing front to back, but did someone really say that the government had possession of "football-field sized ufos"? That seems like something that would be a lot harder to hide. I'd like to know more about that.
posted by newdaddy at 7:17 PM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by newdaddy at 7:17 PM on July 29, 2023 [1 favorite]
newdaddy IIRC he did not actually make that claim during the hearings, he walked back several of his more wild claims actually. But Grusch did in the past say that the US government was in possession of a football field sized UFO.
Which, really, isn't as big as you might think. An aircraft carrier is around 3x longer than the average football field, and about 1.5x wider in places.
And America is pretty big, I don't think it'd actually be all that difficult to hide one if it existed, I just don't think it exists.
posted by sotonohito at 7:36 PM on July 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
Which, really, isn't as big as you might think. An aircraft carrier is around 3x longer than the average football field, and about 1.5x wider in places.
And America is pretty big, I don't think it'd actually be all that difficult to hide one if it existed, I just don't think it exists.
posted by sotonohito at 7:36 PM on July 29, 2023 [3 favorites]
a transcript of the hearing is now available here, fyi. looks like it's ai-generated, so a bunch of typos.
relatedly, aoc making some interesting comments on the hearing and setting out her case for congress continuing to investigate (for some reason i can’t get instagram to load, so unfortunately only have a twitter link). points of interest:
- the gop is consumed by infighting and therefore incapable of progressing various other more prosaic things in the house, which helped create some room in the schedule for a uap hearing.
- uap disclosure is an example of grassroots organising – in addition to the existing bipartisan support for uap disclosure, part of the reason why congress has established disclosure mechanisms, task forces, aaro, etc. over recent years is that a lot of people outside congress are interested in this topic and are well-organised, meaning there has been increasing political pressure on congress to do something about it.
- witness testimony is important – you can’t rely on it alone, but it’s often a helpful starting point. testimony given under oath is completely different to statements to the media. witnesses who are willing to go under oath and open themselves up to perjury or contempt of congress are doing a very serious thing, so you have to take what they say seriously, but they are sometimes mistaken (although she emphasises this is a general point, not her view of grusch et al).
- on uaps and aliens: “do i believe that there are phenomena that have been identified by [commercial and military] pilots, that have gone unidentified? sure, i think so. we heard from some pretty credible witnesses, one is a commander who has verified video that is unidentified, so by definition there are [unidentified phenomena]. there are plenty of uap incidents which have been identified, but there are some that have been unidentified. now do i think those are aliens? that’s a different question. here’s what i do think. i do think there’s something going on.”
- she then goes on to talk about the shadiness of defense contractors, and how one of the themes of the hearing that stuck out to her was defense contractor corruption (irad abuse and misuse of the appropriations process), coverups and lack of oversight, and there are clearly grounds to dig into those allegations. corruption and coverups are her thing – the ‘other stuff’ (presumably meaning the claims that the coverups relate specifically to aliens / nhis, that some uap sightings are of alien craft, etc.) ‘is harder’ and other people are more specialised in it. which sounds like her focus will be on grusch’s claims about the involvement of private contractors in secret uap recovery / reverse engineering programs and associated misuse of funds, retaliation, etc., without drawing any prior conclusion on whether that is in fact what they’re covering up (or whether it’s e.g. covert human tech, simple fraud, etc.).
- on the points raised earlier in this thread about this all being a waste of time, why is congress prioritising this, etc. etc., she notes that defense contractors receive c.50% of the defense budget (~$400 billion annually) and the pentagon is incapable of passing an audit, and then concludes “for everyone who might say, whatever, like, this doesn’t matter, we need to worry about rent and healthcare – first of all, hear you. second of all, i actually think these issues are connected, because one of the reasons [or] excuses we’re always told why the richest country on earth can’t have universal healthcare is because ‘we can’t afford it’, right? well, we know that’s a crock of nonsense, because we’re spending trillions of dollars over years on military budgets that can’t pass an audit and half of which go to a bunch of private companies that are price gouging the public and engaged in corrupt activity.’ which seems like a fair point.
posted by inire at 6:46 AM on July 30, 2023 [5 favorites]
relatedly, aoc making some interesting comments on the hearing and setting out her case for congress continuing to investigate (for some reason i can’t get instagram to load, so unfortunately only have a twitter link). points of interest:
- the gop is consumed by infighting and therefore incapable of progressing various other more prosaic things in the house, which helped create some room in the schedule for a uap hearing.
- uap disclosure is an example of grassroots organising – in addition to the existing bipartisan support for uap disclosure, part of the reason why congress has established disclosure mechanisms, task forces, aaro, etc. over recent years is that a lot of people outside congress are interested in this topic and are well-organised, meaning there has been increasing political pressure on congress to do something about it.
- witness testimony is important – you can’t rely on it alone, but it’s often a helpful starting point. testimony given under oath is completely different to statements to the media. witnesses who are willing to go under oath and open themselves up to perjury or contempt of congress are doing a very serious thing, so you have to take what they say seriously, but they are sometimes mistaken (although she emphasises this is a general point, not her view of grusch et al).
- on uaps and aliens: “do i believe that there are phenomena that have been identified by [commercial and military] pilots, that have gone unidentified? sure, i think so. we heard from some pretty credible witnesses, one is a commander who has verified video that is unidentified, so by definition there are [unidentified phenomena]. there are plenty of uap incidents which have been identified, but there are some that have been unidentified. now do i think those are aliens? that’s a different question. here’s what i do think. i do think there’s something going on.”
- she then goes on to talk about the shadiness of defense contractors, and how one of the themes of the hearing that stuck out to her was defense contractor corruption (irad abuse and misuse of the appropriations process), coverups and lack of oversight, and there are clearly grounds to dig into those allegations. corruption and coverups are her thing – the ‘other stuff’ (presumably meaning the claims that the coverups relate specifically to aliens / nhis, that some uap sightings are of alien craft, etc.) ‘is harder’ and other people are more specialised in it. which sounds like her focus will be on grusch’s claims about the involvement of private contractors in secret uap recovery / reverse engineering programs and associated misuse of funds, retaliation, etc., without drawing any prior conclusion on whether that is in fact what they’re covering up (or whether it’s e.g. covert human tech, simple fraud, etc.).
- on the points raised earlier in this thread about this all being a waste of time, why is congress prioritising this, etc. etc., she notes that defense contractors receive c.50% of the defense budget (~$400 billion annually) and the pentagon is incapable of passing an audit, and then concludes “for everyone who might say, whatever, like, this doesn’t matter, we need to worry about rent and healthcare – first of all, hear you. second of all, i actually think these issues are connected, because one of the reasons [or] excuses we’re always told why the richest country on earth can’t have universal healthcare is because ‘we can’t afford it’, right? well, we know that’s a crock of nonsense, because we’re spending trillions of dollars over years on military budgets that can’t pass an audit and half of which go to a bunch of private companies that are price gouging the public and engaged in corrupt activity.’ which seems like a fair point.
posted by inire at 6:46 AM on July 30, 2023 [5 favorites]
IIRC he did not actually make that claim during the hearings, he walked back several of his more wild claims actually. But Grusch did in the past say that the US government was in possession of a football field sized UFO.
grusch didn't mention it during the hearings, but graves did - he talked about boeing contractors seeing a football field-sized uap near the vandenberg air force base in 2003, which a witness reported to his org (americans for safe aerospace) - according to him, the witness had supporting official documents and records. grusch previously referred to football field-sized uaps in an 11 june interview with newsnation, although i'm not sure if he said it was in the government's possession or if it had just been observed (geoblocked from newsnation site so can't check the video).
posted by inire at 6:59 AM on July 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
grusch didn't mention it during the hearings, but graves did - he talked about boeing contractors seeing a football field-sized uap near the vandenberg air force base in 2003, which a witness reported to his org (americans for safe aerospace) - according to him, the witness had supporting official documents and records. grusch previously referred to football field-sized uaps in an 11 june interview with newsnation, although i'm not sure if he said it was in the government's possession or if it had just been observed (geoblocked from newsnation site so can't check the video).
posted by inire at 6:59 AM on July 30, 2023 [2 favorites]
I haven't watched the whole thing front to back, but did someone really say that the government had possession of "football-field sized ufos"? That seems like something that would be a lot harder to hide. I'd like to know more about that.
It generally stays in one stadium during the off-season, but during a game they disguise it as a blimp.
posted by Brian B. at 7:32 AM on July 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
It generally stays in one stadium during the off-season, but during a game they disguise it as a blimp.
posted by Brian B. at 7:32 AM on July 30, 2023 [6 favorites]
Red, square UFO hovered over Vandenberg base in 2003, congressional witness testifies
In 2003, a group of Boeing contractors operated near the launch facility of what was then known as Vandenberg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara County, Graves said.
At about 8:45 a.m., “they observed a very large, 100-yard-sided red square approach the base from the ocean and hover at low altitude over one of the launch facilities,” Graves said. “This object remained for about 45 seconds or so before darting off over the mountains.”
Yeah, I think I’m just gonna say “no they didn’t” to that one. A massive red UFO buzzed vandenberg in daylight without anyone noticing is extremly not plausible.
posted by Artw at 8:46 AM on July 30, 2023 [5 favorites]
In 2003, a group of Boeing contractors operated near the launch facility of what was then known as Vandenberg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara County, Graves said.
At about 8:45 a.m., “they observed a very large, 100-yard-sided red square approach the base from the ocean and hover at low altitude over one of the launch facilities,” Graves said. “This object remained for about 45 seconds or so before darting off over the mountains.”
Yeah, I think I’m just gonna say “no they didn’t” to that one. A massive red UFO buzzed vandenberg in daylight without anyone noticing is extremly not plausible.
posted by Artw at 8:46 AM on July 30, 2023 [5 favorites]
The most plausible looking thing for me right now as far as Grusch's secondhand testimony is that contractors are spreading rumors of recovered materials and reverse engineering and secret agencies and such to keep oversight away from black budget grifting. This would largely be separate from questions of whether or not testimony like Fravor's has a mundane explanation, but they would be gladly using testimony like that to bolster their own rumors. And at some point there would be cooperation between the actual military and these contractors on this grift, unless some contractors have gotten so powerful that they can operate with impunity without any meaningful DoD oversight.
I can picture a situation where they spread rumors on subjects that are solidly within the remit of someone like Grusch, but the actual work they're grifting on is so totally unrelated to the UFO/UAP thing that Grusch absolutely has no need to know what is actually going on and therefore gets stonewalled and here we are.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:38 AM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
I can picture a situation where they spread rumors on subjects that are solidly within the remit of someone like Grusch, but the actual work they're grifting on is so totally unrelated to the UFO/UAP thing that Grusch absolutely has no need to know what is actually going on and therefore gets stonewalled and here we are.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:38 AM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I think I’m just gonna say “no they didn’t” to that one. A massive red UFO buzzed vandenberg in daylight without anyone noticing is extremly not plausible.
??? Aren't they saying that they noticed it?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 10:02 AM on July 30, 2023
??? Aren't they saying that they noticed it?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 10:02 AM on July 30, 2023
The idea is that other people would notice two red football fields flying around. Vandenburg isn't that remote.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:12 AM on July 30, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:12 AM on July 30, 2023 [4 favorites]
Some random dudes from Boeing and apparently not the airbase.
Unless every single person there kept quiet as part of The Conspiracy.
posted by Artw at 10:13 AM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
Unless every single person there kept quiet as part of The Conspiracy.
posted by Artw at 10:13 AM on July 30, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ryan Graves Opening Statement at Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) With Transcript
Lex Fridman Podcast #308 | Ryan Graves, UFOs, Fighter Jets, and Aliens
Lex Fridman @ YouTube
What's Behind the Chinese Spy Balloon
What's Behind the Chinese Spy Balloon: Archive
"Wow, what is that?" Pilots Report Unexplained Flying Objects
"Wow, what is that?" Pilots Report Unexplained Flying Objects: Archive
posted by y2karl at 10:29 AM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
Lex Fridman Podcast #308 | Ryan Graves, UFOs, Fighter Jets, and Aliens
Lex Fridman @ YouTube
What's Behind the Chinese Spy Balloon
What's Behind the Chinese Spy Balloon: Archive
"Wow, what is that?" Pilots Report Unexplained Flying Objects
"Wow, what is that?" Pilots Report Unexplained Flying Objects: Archive
posted by y2karl at 10:29 AM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
From the What's Behind the Chinese Spy Balloon transcript
Earlier this month, the United States shot down a Chinese spy balloon that had travelled over a large swath of North America. According to the Biden Administration, the balloon was “part of a larger Chinese surveillance-balloon program,” which the White House argued had violated the sovereignty of nations all over the world. The Chinese government accused the U.S. of overreacting, and signalled that it views the response as a sign of American decline. Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled a diplomatic trip to China that was to include meetings with high-level officials, including President Xi Jinping, who has amassed more power than any Chinese leader in a generation. (U.S. and Canadian authorities have shot down several more objects flying over the two countries in recent days, but there is no evidence of any connection between those objects and the Chinese balloon.)posted by y2karl at 10:54 AM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
To talk about China’s military strategy, and the future of U.S.-China relations, I recently spoke by phone with M. Taylor Fravel, a professor of political science at M.I.T. and the director of its Security Studies Program. He is also the author of “Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy Since 1949.” During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed how China has modernized its military during the past twenty-five years, how Xi has taken control of military policy, and why the diplomatic fallout from the balloon incident may be much more dangerous than the usual spy games.
There has been a lot of analysis indicating that Xi has brought about a new era in Chinese politics. Has China also entered a new military era?
In the past decade, the Chinese military has definitely entered a new era, but it reflects a series of decisions made earlier. In the late nineties, in the aftermath of the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Kosovo, during the air war there, a decision was made to modernize the Chinese military and completely reinvest in all platforms, across all systems. That kicked off well before Xi Jinping became General Secretary and chairman of the Central Military Commission. That dedication to building a modern military preceded Xi, but it has manifested on Xi’s watch, so to speak. We’re seeing how the ground forces, the rocket forces, the Navy, the Air Force, etc., are now, by and large, field-modern, capable platforms that simply didn’t exist two decades ago.
Moreover, halfway through Xi Jinping’s tenure, an effort was made to significantly reorganize the People’s Liberation Army (P.L.A.). It was the most significant organizational change to the P.L.A. since the nineteen-fifties. It basically shattered the general-staff system, which was anchored around four main departments, and set up a bunch of smaller departments and offices under the Central Military Commission itself. That was intended to better enable the P.L.A. to use all this hardware that had been developed, and principally to enhance its ability to be able to execute complex front operations that would combine elements from the different services.
Why do you think the bombing in Kosovo had this effect? Are the changes that you’re describing more circumstantial or ideological?
I guess I’m wondering what you mean by ideological. Not to be a pedantic professor . . .
I’m wondering whether the changes were brought about defensively, because of something that happened, or whether it was part of an ideological push to have a more forward-leaning posture—that it was going to occur regardless of circumstances.
It’s a bit of both. The air war on Kosovo was a real turning point for the P.L.A., because it led them to debate whether China would still exist in an era of peace and development, in which it would not have to prepare for the possibility of major armed conflict, and how hostile the United States might be to Chinese interests, given that this was an attack on a piece of sovereign Chinese territory. Even though the strike was unintentional and accidental, it nevertheless sparked this debate. But there’s an even broader context here.
China has always seen itself as a great power, and great powers want great militaries. Having a modern, capable military has been a long-standing ambition of multiple Chinese leaders, arguably going back even to the fifties, but certainly in the post-Cold War period. If we look at Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao (perhaps to a lesser extent), and Xi Jinping, they’ve all been strong advocates for modernizing the P.L.A., but that’s been a real challenge. At the end of the Cold War, the P.L.A. used very outdated equipment—technology from the sixties and seventies. It had a fairly low degree of mechanization of its ground forces. It did not have any fourth-generation fighter aircraft. It did not really have a great surface fleet. And, when the Gulf War happened, I think Chinese military leaders, as well as Chinese civilian leaders, realized that something quite profound was changing in how states were going to fight in the future.
That led them to change their strategy, in 1993, which meant pursuing this ability to be able to conduct joint operations, because they realized that’s what the United States was doing in the Gulf War. You also had a Taiwan Strait crisis in the mid-nineties, which I think many people focus on, or emphasize as the turning point in P.L.A. modernization. [In 1995 and 1996, China fired missiles around Taiwan in response to concerns that the island might declare independence; the United States responded by sending warships to the area.] Certainly, it was a very important event. I focus on the air war in Kosovo only because I think it helps clarify whatever concerns China might have had in the mid-nineties about the need to have a strong and independent military, in order to defend what China views as its interests.
By that point, of course, the United States was seen as potentially more hostile to China than it was at the end of the Cold War. That further reinforced this need to have a strong military, not because China is warlike and wants to go out and fight lots of wars but, rather, because it would backstop China’s diplomacy. It would allow China to use the threat of military force to advance its political interests, such as using a threat of an invasion or attack on Taiwan in order to deter Taiwanese independence, and so forth. And so the pieces fell in place by the late nineties. By then, China was even wealthier than it was at the beginning of that decade, and was thus able to devote even more resources to modernizing its armed forces. I wouldn’t call that ideological, necessarily. I think it’s a long-term secular trend across different generations of leaders in China to pursue this goal.
You mentioned that the military could be used to serve political objectives, but has the modernization of the P.L.A. driven Chinese international behavior in some way? I’m curious how you see the cause and effect there.
In the last five years, China, with a much more modern military, has many more options that it can draw from when it’s thinking about how to advance its interests. It can use displays of force to much greater effect than before. Ten or fifteen or twenty years ago, I don’t think we would see China run almost daily incursions into the air-defense-identification zone around Taiwan, which clearly are intended largely to have a political effect, in terms of underscoring China’s commitment to unification and efforts to deter independence. You see Chinese naval vessels circumnavigate the Japanese home islands as a way of demonstrating the country’s place in the region. And then you see more direct uses of force, such as the deployments along the border of India in the spring and summer of 2020.
When you have a more capable military, there’s a lot more you can do. You can also use it to elevate your status by conducting port calls on all continents around the world, by conducting joint exercises with not only countries in your home region, in East Asia, but also in other regions around the world. You can use it to signify a closer relationship with Russia by conducting joint exercises with them. Military modernization gives policymakers and decision-makers more tools with which to pursue their state’s interest.
That’s an interesting answer. Does that also come back to my first question about Xi—
Yes.
It seems that he’s using the tools of modernization to support a more expansive foreign policy.
Yeah. He’s using the P.L.A. more frequently, in more places, at the same time, than any other Chinese leader.
How do you understand the Chinese military as a political actor within China? The word we often hear about Xi is “centralization.” How does the military fit with that notion, and is that a change from the way that the Chinese military has operated with the country’s previous leaders?
Mao and Deng were veterans of the Chinese Civil War that brought the Chinese Communist Party [C.C.P.] to power. And so they had a great deal of credibility with the military and had basically pretty good relations, and a pretty high level of control—with the caveat that, in China, it’s a huge bureaucracy, so there’s always going to be a lack of control. It’s a difficult country to govern and control.
Now, the successor leaders, who were not veterans of the Civil War, have had to work harder to establish a working relationship with the high command of the P.L.A. But it’s very important to stress that the P.L.A. is a Party Army, not a national Army, which means that it’s governed by the Central Military Commission. The Central Military Commission is chaired by the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. A Party Army is completely different from a military that you would find in any democracy, which would be beholden to the constitution of the country and whatever governance procedures a particular constitution puts in place. Its structure is also different. It’s penetrated by the Party at many levels.
In China, you have Party committees within ministries, within state-owned enterprises, and of course throughout the entire system of governance for provinces, all the way down to cities and townships. You also have Party committees within military organizations. This means that, whenever there is a political campaign, it will usually play out in the military, too. In the first five years of Xi’s rule, the so-called anti-corruption period, the military did not come out unscathed. Two former vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission—in other words, the two highest-ranking officers of the P.L.A. [other than Xi]—were caught up in that anti-corruption drive and thrown out of the Party, which was very rare.
There’s a fair amount of delegation to the P.L.A. in “normal” times, because, after all, the Party wants to have a good military. But, whenever it might appear that the P.L.A. could pose a challenge to top Party leaders in any way, there has often been a move to bring it under control. And, certainly, Xi Jinping came into office wanting to increase his control over the military. Of course, there were rumors that were related to Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang, and everything around Xi Jinping’s accession to office in 2012. That may have also made him want to really bring the military leadership under his control.
Just to be clear, Bo Xilai was once considered Xi’s top rival in the Party, and Xi got rid of him in the anti-corruption drive. What’s the connection to the military, though?
Zhou Yongkang was an outgoing member of the Politburo Standing Committee, in charge of law and order. He had reported links to Bo Xilai, and they had links to members of the P.L.A. The main point is that there was concern about the potential loyalty of the P.L.A, and Xi wanted to remove any doubt that it was very much a Party Army, and ultimately loyal to the Party and loyal to him as the General Secretary of the Party. And another reflection of the power he was able to generate over the P.L.A. were these reforms that I mentioned earlier. Going back to 1949, and the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the P.L.A. has always been dominated by the ground forces, because they achieved the victory in the Civil War that brought the C.C.P. to power. They were the main fighting force in the Korean War, against the United States. And so they’ve always exerted a tremendous amount of influence over the way that the P.L.A. was organized.
And what Xi Jinping did in 2015 and 2016 was significantly downgrade the role of the ground forces, such that organizationally they were equivalent to all of the other services. These reforms placed the ground forces at the same level bureaucratically and organizationally as the Navy, the Air Force, and the Rocket Force. Given how much resistance there had been to reorganizing the P.L.A. to conduct joint operations, dating back to the early nineties, the fact that Xi Jinping was able to do this against presumed resistance from the largest vested-interest group within the P.L.A., the ground force, demonstrates the degree to which Xi has been able to gain control or to exercise control over the P.L.A.
Well, we’ve talked for more than twenty minutes now without mentioning this balloon, and that was intentional, but—
Good.
I should just ask what you’ve made of this story.
Intelligence collection and surveillance is something that states do, but usually when they’re over another country they do it from outer space, from satellites, and not from something that would violate national airspace, as this balloon did. I was struck by the fact that China did conduct a surveillance-and-reconnaissance operation, or some other kind of intelligence-gathering operation, over American airspace, because of the implications that it would have for U.S. perceptions of China and China’s future intentions. We all know that surveillance is going on overhead by satellite. There’s no surprise there. We all know that countries spy on each other. The spying itself is not a surprise.
But what was really was surprising, or what caused me to scratch my head, is: wow, that is violating the principle of sovereignty that underpins so much of China’s security concerns in East Asia, whether it’s Taiwan, the South China Sea, American navigation operations in the South China Sea, and so forth. No. 2, my gut instinct was that this was no doubt part of a potentially long-standing Chinese intelligence-collection program, but that the program itself was probably very poorly coördinated, perhaps not just within the P.L.A. but between the P.L.A. and other parts of the Party state.
That poor coördination probably extends to the Foreign Ministry, and essentially the senior leadership, in that it’s not clear to me that Xi Jinping would’ve wanted this balloon to fly over the United States at precisely the moment when he was seeking to lower the temperature in ties with the United States, which would’ve taken place had Secretary of State Blinken gone ahead with his visit. Although we don’t know, because China has not been terribly transparent about this, the incident seems to reflect these coördination problems one has in large bureaucracies. China’s certainly not immune to that problem, like so many other states.
What have you made of the various responses?
On the American side, it reflects how domestic politics and concerns about China may outweigh the single significance of the incident. It’s going to attract a great deal of attention from the United States, certainly: highlighting China’s transgressions in terms of sovereignty, focussing on a broader challenge that China may pose to the United States in a variety of different domains.
There’s going to be a lot of public discussion about the balloons. There are going to be demands for answers about why we didn’t track them earlier, why we didn’t know about them earlier, and so forth. And, of course, this is all going to challenge China’s initial explanation, which was that it was a civilian airship conducting meteorological research. And so I think China’s going to double down on its own perception of its innocence here, and you’re going to see, I think, debate and discussion of the balloon take on a life of its own that may exceed the significance of the actual event.
It sounds like you think there may be a danger in overreacting to this. Is that accurate?
Well, I think the danger would be if the focus on the balloon itself significantly sets back or prevents what is the absolute pure need for the two countries to find a modus vivendi. Blinken’s visit, at least, was perhaps the first step of what would be a very long process to do that, but it seems that the two countries are groping for a framework with which to govern their ties. This is important, given their respective sizes and capacities, not to mention the degree to which we’re still quite dependent upon each other in the economic realm. I think the balloon will become a distraction from what is a larger and more important strategic issue between the two countries.
How do you view the American response to China’s military modernization?
Depending on who you talk to, China is either the pacing challenge or the pacing threat. It’s the country around which, at least in principle, U.S. modernization and plans are being oriented. What that means is that there’s going to be a much greater focus on competing with China in the military domain, to maximize U.S. leverage and minimize U.S. vulnerability. But, of course, China has a say in how it responds to the actions that the United States is taking in response to Chinese modernization. It will almost certainly seek to offset those, which means that, in the military domain, you’re quite likely to see a greater spiral of tensions and instability, which runs the risk of a real crisis between the two countries. If you look at how a balloon was handled, one has to ask: How are the two countries prepared to handle an actual military fight?
WE CANNOT AFFORD A BALLOON GAP!
posted by flabdablet at 12:04 PM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 12:04 PM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
We all know that surveillance is going on overhead by satellite.
this reminds me of a point of interest.
moskowitz asked about satellite imagery of uaps and crash sites in the hearing. grusch said he’d reviewed uap-related satellite imagery that had not been shared with congress (while saying he couldn’t discuss whether that imagery related to crash sites in an open hearing).
there have been previous mentions of satellite imagery of uaps – for example, former dni john ratcliffe said in 2021 that “there are a lot more sightings than have been made public […] Some of those have been declassified. And when we talk about sightings, we are talking about objects that have been seen by navy or air force pilots, or have been picked up by satellite imagery, that frankly engage in actions that are difficult to explain, movements that are hard to replicate, that we don’t have the technology for. Or traveling at speeds that exceed the sound barrier without a sonic boom […] there have been sightings all over the world. Usually we have multiple sensors that are picking up these things” – he described those multiple sensor detections in another interview as including “visual, radar, isr, satellite […] it explains away a lot of the things like visual disturbances”.
his references to there being satellite imagery of uaps are backed up by foia’d documents from the nro, released in 2022-23 (before the debrief article). they reference a classified machine learning platform called sentient, which – in part – seems to be intended to process vast amounts of satellite imagery and other geospatial data to detect anomalies (not limited to uaps) that can then be escalated for human review.
the foia’d documents refer to the 2021 detection of a uap (in the literal sense of an unidentified anomalous phenomena). that’s of mild interest – the documents state that it was a “possible airborne object” that “vaguely resemble[d] similar detections of [uaps] by US Navy aircraft and surface vessels [with] a rough similarity to the previously-reported ‘tic tac’ shape [and] was likely not a sensor artifact or focal plane anomaly”, although further image analysis is recommended. the documents don’t draw any conclusion about the nature of the object – a list of potential hypotheses refers to a tail-on plane, a weather balloon, space debris, or “Other” – but do note that the imagery was shared with the uap task force (so presumably grusch would have been in a position to review similar imagery) and raise the prospect of using the same processing strategy in areas where “multiple detections have been previously reported”.
more interestingly, a largely redacted email chain about using sentient to support the uap task force refers to sentient having a specific “uap model” to look for uaps in imagery, but it is only “turned on” at the request of “an external customer”.
all that strongly suggests that there is uap-related satellite imagery – potentially quite a lot of it – as indicated by ratcliffe and grusch. chris mellon was also reported to have said in april 2023 that there is 4k uap-related satellite imagery, and subsequently said on fox news that he is aware of satellite imagery not disclosed to congress that would help congress to better determine whether these uaps were human tech. despite mellon backing grusch and the exciting range of unreliable sources involved in communicating the ‘4k resolution’ comment (a ufo researcher told joe rogan about a conversation he'd had with mellon..!), if there were physical objects prompting uap sightings, it would not be remotely surprising for high quality satellite imagery to exist, given military / intelligence satellite imaging capabilities.
there would no doubt also be some imagery of a similarly inconclusive quality as the example mentioned above (which doesn’t sound like it’s much of an improvement on the flir videos’ resolution), but even low quality satellite imagery could, in principle, demonstrate that the uap (whatever it is) is a physical object moving at speeds unachievable by human tech, if it’s tracked consistently across multiple images and reflected on other sensors. or, you know, could show a red square the size of a football field.
if it’s correct that this kind of satellite imagery hasn’t been disclosed to congress, or that only small amounts of low-quality imagery has been disclosed, that would be an obvious target for the various investigations.
posted by inire at 1:35 PM on July 31, 2023
this reminds me of a point of interest.
moskowitz asked about satellite imagery of uaps and crash sites in the hearing. grusch said he’d reviewed uap-related satellite imagery that had not been shared with congress (while saying he couldn’t discuss whether that imagery related to crash sites in an open hearing).
there have been previous mentions of satellite imagery of uaps – for example, former dni john ratcliffe said in 2021 that “there are a lot more sightings than have been made public […] Some of those have been declassified. And when we talk about sightings, we are talking about objects that have been seen by navy or air force pilots, or have been picked up by satellite imagery, that frankly engage in actions that are difficult to explain, movements that are hard to replicate, that we don’t have the technology for. Or traveling at speeds that exceed the sound barrier without a sonic boom […] there have been sightings all over the world. Usually we have multiple sensors that are picking up these things” – he described those multiple sensor detections in another interview as including “visual, radar, isr, satellite […] it explains away a lot of the things like visual disturbances”.
his references to there being satellite imagery of uaps are backed up by foia’d documents from the nro, released in 2022-23 (before the debrief article). they reference a classified machine learning platform called sentient, which – in part – seems to be intended to process vast amounts of satellite imagery and other geospatial data to detect anomalies (not limited to uaps) that can then be escalated for human review.
the foia’d documents refer to the 2021 detection of a uap (in the literal sense of an unidentified anomalous phenomena). that’s of mild interest – the documents state that it was a “possible airborne object” that “vaguely resemble[d] similar detections of [uaps] by US Navy aircraft and surface vessels [with] a rough similarity to the previously-reported ‘tic tac’ shape [and] was likely not a sensor artifact or focal plane anomaly”, although further image analysis is recommended. the documents don’t draw any conclusion about the nature of the object – a list of potential hypotheses refers to a tail-on plane, a weather balloon, space debris, or “Other” – but do note that the imagery was shared with the uap task force (so presumably grusch would have been in a position to review similar imagery) and raise the prospect of using the same processing strategy in areas where “multiple detections have been previously reported”.
more interestingly, a largely redacted email chain about using sentient to support the uap task force refers to sentient having a specific “uap model” to look for uaps in imagery, but it is only “turned on” at the request of “an external customer”.
all that strongly suggests that there is uap-related satellite imagery – potentially quite a lot of it – as indicated by ratcliffe and grusch. chris mellon was also reported to have said in april 2023 that there is 4k uap-related satellite imagery, and subsequently said on fox news that he is aware of satellite imagery not disclosed to congress that would help congress to better determine whether these uaps were human tech. despite mellon backing grusch and the exciting range of unreliable sources involved in communicating the ‘4k resolution’ comment (a ufo researcher told joe rogan about a conversation he'd had with mellon..!), if there were physical objects prompting uap sightings, it would not be remotely surprising for high quality satellite imagery to exist, given military / intelligence satellite imaging capabilities.
there would no doubt also be some imagery of a similarly inconclusive quality as the example mentioned above (which doesn’t sound like it’s much of an improvement on the flir videos’ resolution), but even low quality satellite imagery could, in principle, demonstrate that the uap (whatever it is) is a physical object moving at speeds unachievable by human tech, if it’s tracked consistently across multiple images and reflected on other sensors. or, you know, could show a red square the size of a football field.
if it’s correct that this kind of satellite imagery hasn’t been disclosed to congress, or that only small amounts of low-quality imagery has been disclosed, that would be an obvious target for the various investigations.
posted by inire at 1:35 PM on July 31, 2023
(for clarity, i should say that i don't think mellon would literally mean that there is satellite imagery showing uaps at 4k resolution, unless some genius in a dod basement has figured out how to overcome the optical limitations of atmospheric turbulence - i think he'd be using it in a colloquial sense to mean 'very clear and high-res imagery'.)
posted by inire at 2:12 PM on July 31, 2023
posted by inire at 2:12 PM on July 31, 2023
People are terrible at judging the size of objects in the sky.
posted by interogative mood at 2:24 PM on July 31, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 2:24 PM on July 31, 2023
Also all roundish blobs now being “tic-tac shaped” now is quite amusing.
posted by Artw at 2:29 PM on July 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 2:29 PM on July 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
If the Untied States recovered the Soviet Sputnik 2 capsule or one of its successors containing a dog like "Laika" that would be a recovery of a spacecraft with a non-human biological sample.
posted by interogative mood at 2:32 PM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 2:32 PM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
i’ll confess i don’t see how that follows, but can’t argue with it!
posted by inire at 2:34 PM on July 31, 2023
posted by inire at 2:34 PM on July 31, 2023
People are terrible at judging the size of objects in the sky.
that may or may not matter, depending on the other information that can be accurately judged (for example, if you have 10 cm resolution imagery of an exotic-looking object moving at mach 20 through cloud banks that are present within a known range of altitude, doesn’t much matter that you can’t tell precisely how big it is).
also, this is partly why the possibility of multi sensor data is interesting, per ratcliffe - lower risk of misidentification than a single sensor. grusch alluded to that in the hearing when he said he’d reviewed “both what we call overhead collection [i.e. satellite imagery] and from other strategic and tactical platforms”. although you’d assume that is a relatively small proportion of the whole.
posted by inire at 2:54 PM on July 31, 2023
that may or may not matter, depending on the other information that can be accurately judged (for example, if you have 10 cm resolution imagery of an exotic-looking object moving at mach 20 through cloud banks that are present within a known range of altitude, doesn’t much matter that you can’t tell precisely how big it is).
also, this is partly why the possibility of multi sensor data is interesting, per ratcliffe - lower risk of misidentification than a single sensor. grusch alluded to that in the hearing when he said he’d reviewed “both what we call overhead collection [i.e. satellite imagery] and from other strategic and tactical platforms”. although you’d assume that is a relatively small proportion of the whole.
posted by inire at 2:54 PM on July 31, 2023
traveling at speeds that exceed the sound barrier without a sonic boom
There's a well-understood class of phenomena known to display this behaviour occasionally. They're called "optical illusions".
posted by flabdablet at 3:36 PM on July 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
There's a well-understood class of phenomena known to display this behaviour occasionally. They're called "optical illusions".
posted by flabdablet at 3:36 PM on July 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
I would just as soon there are no aliens because the chances are we would be to them as would a parasitic wasp inside a parasitic wasp inside an ant be to us. And what if they want, on behalf of the whole other total biome, to Make Earth Great Again?
*H'mm, where to start...*
/Self-replicating machine intelligence representing million year old galactic civilization sent a million years ago from galaxy far far away.
posted by y2karl at 3:47 PM on July 31, 2023
*H'mm, where to start...*
/Self-replicating machine intelligence representing million year old galactic civilization sent a million years ago from galaxy far far away.
posted by y2karl at 3:47 PM on July 31, 2023
Religious Americans less likely to believe intelligent life exists on other planets (Pew Research Center)
posted by Brian B. at 4:13 PM on July 31, 2023
posted by Brian B. at 4:13 PM on July 31, 2023
Ryan Graves testified: "In the 2003 time frame, a large group of Boeing contractors were operating near one of the launch facilities at Vandenberg Air Force Base when they observed a very large, 100-yard, sided, red square approach the base from the ocean and hover at low altitude over one of the launch facilities…This object remained for about 45 seconds or so before darting off over the mountains."
This article has a picture of a Falcon 9 rocket at the launch pad for reference. As you can see proximate spatial references are limited making any estimate of size likely to be inaccurate. I suspect this was probably a mirage or light reflecting off clouds depending on time of day.
posted by interogative mood at 4:51 PM on July 31, 2023
This article has a picture of a Falcon 9 rocket at the launch pad for reference. As you can see proximate spatial references are limited making any estimate of size likely to be inaccurate. I suspect this was probably a mirage or light reflecting off clouds depending on time of day.
posted by interogative mood at 4:51 PM on July 31, 2023
Listen, the borg cube visited Bakersfield and only two guys saw it what can you do
posted by dis_integration at 5:00 PM on July 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 5:00 PM on July 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
There's a well-understood class of phenomena known to display this behaviour occasionally. They're called "optical illusions".
Or the radarman's favorite, the 'false return.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:19 PM on July 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
Or the radarman's favorite, the 'false return.'
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:19 PM on July 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Red Cube was probably some Lockheed Skunkworks guys playing a prank on the Boeing guys.
posted by interogative mood at 5:24 PM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 5:24 PM on July 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
the radarman's favorite, the 'false return.'
omg there's a formation of them
posted by flabdablet at 8:29 PM on July 31, 2023
omg there's a formation of them
posted by flabdablet at 8:29 PM on July 31, 2023
The NASA report a few months ago discussed the Pentagon's observation of "metallic orbs" with a common range of characteristics making "extraordinary maneuvers" that were confirmed to be physical objects based on multi-sensor data, including optical cameras. The 2004 Nimitz object was eye-witnessed directly by four different pilots (two at close range), in addition to being captured travelling at extremely high speeds on multiple sensors as well. They're not just blobs on a screen.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:40 PM on July 31, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Rhaomi at 9:40 PM on July 31, 2023 [3 favorites]
They're not just blobs on a screen.
quite. this is where the classification issue comes up. it's not generally disputed that the majority of publicised sightings are open to straightforward explanations, because they are 'just blobs on a screen' in some sense (i.e. single-sensor detections, single-source blurry iphone videos, single eyewitness encounters), or are technically 'multi-sensor' but with low reliability (e.g. a blurry iphone video backed up by separate confused eyewitness accounts).
but that's rather beside the point. the events of most interest are those involving higher quality data corroborated by multiple different types of sensors as involving a physical object. say, a flir video, multiple ship-based radar returns, satellite imagery and multiple contemporaneous eyewitness accounts that all indicate an object was present at location x at time y with one or more of the 'uap observables' listed in schumer's amendment (now passed unanimously by the senate) at s.9003(22)(a).
that type of data generally remains classified, to an extent that's been repeatedly described as excessive. and yet everyone who appears to have had access to said classified data seems to come to the conclusion that there's something weird happening, even if they don't draw any particular conclusion about whether it's advanced human tech, aliens, etc.
so if the public discussion is going to advance beyond '95% of sightings are open to straightforward explanations' (true, but so what?), there needs to be more disclosure of that kind of data. which is part of what congress is seeking to achieve.
posted by inire at 3:54 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
quite. this is where the classification issue comes up. it's not generally disputed that the majority of publicised sightings are open to straightforward explanations, because they are 'just blobs on a screen' in some sense (i.e. single-sensor detections, single-source blurry iphone videos, single eyewitness encounters), or are technically 'multi-sensor' but with low reliability (e.g. a blurry iphone video backed up by separate confused eyewitness accounts).
but that's rather beside the point. the events of most interest are those involving higher quality data corroborated by multiple different types of sensors as involving a physical object. say, a flir video, multiple ship-based radar returns, satellite imagery and multiple contemporaneous eyewitness accounts that all indicate an object was present at location x at time y with one or more of the 'uap observables' listed in schumer's amendment (now passed unanimously by the senate) at s.9003(22)(a).
that type of data generally remains classified, to an extent that's been repeatedly described as excessive. and yet everyone who appears to have had access to said classified data seems to come to the conclusion that there's something weird happening, even if they don't draw any particular conclusion about whether it's advanced human tech, aliens, etc.
so if the public discussion is going to advance beyond '95% of sightings are open to straightforward explanations' (true, but so what?), there needs to be more disclosure of that kind of data. which is part of what congress is seeking to achieve.
posted by inire at 3:54 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
confirmed to be physical objects based on multi-sensor data
Kirkpatrick is a bright guy, but he seems to me weirdly wobbly on the issue of parallax.
That clip he shows with the three distant airplanes following each other in for a landing bothers me. Not the clip itself so much, but his response to the question from the panel on what the background of fixed dots is. He said it was stars, but he also said that the way the three planes appear to flick back and forth was due to camera movement. I can see no plausible way for a camera to wobble that would make distant aircraft flick violently sideways while leaving the starfield behind them 100% pixel for pixel immobile, so it seems far more likely to me that those background dots are damaged pixels inside the camera's sensor chip.
And if he's missed that, he's capable of missing the fact that a Reaper drone is a fixed wing aircraft and therefore can't hover, which means that if a Reaper drone is showing you a movie of a piece of landscape with features such as buildings that don't appear to be moving, that's because its camera is tracking those features to compensate for the changing angle of their line of sight. Which means that any small and slow-moving object close to the Reaper is going to move through the scene, and the closer to the Reaper it is, the faster it will seem to go. I can see nothing on the "metallic orb" video that looks inconsistent with a metallized party balloon flying at a decent height above the ground.
As Kirkpatrick noted, DoD sensor equipment is not designed to identify unusual objects. It's designed to achieve a tracking lock on recognizable objects sufficient to aim weaponry at them. And I think that probably has almost everything to do with why all the UAP reports he has have come from aircraft, and none of them from ground stations or satellites.
posted by flabdablet at 6:10 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Kirkpatrick is a bright guy, but he seems to me weirdly wobbly on the issue of parallax.
That clip he shows with the three distant airplanes following each other in for a landing bothers me. Not the clip itself so much, but his response to the question from the panel on what the background of fixed dots is. He said it was stars, but he also said that the way the three planes appear to flick back and forth was due to camera movement. I can see no plausible way for a camera to wobble that would make distant aircraft flick violently sideways while leaving the starfield behind them 100% pixel for pixel immobile, so it seems far more likely to me that those background dots are damaged pixels inside the camera's sensor chip.
And if he's missed that, he's capable of missing the fact that a Reaper drone is a fixed wing aircraft and therefore can't hover, which means that if a Reaper drone is showing you a movie of a piece of landscape with features such as buildings that don't appear to be moving, that's because its camera is tracking those features to compensate for the changing angle of their line of sight. Which means that any small and slow-moving object close to the Reaper is going to move through the scene, and the closer to the Reaper it is, the faster it will seem to go. I can see nothing on the "metallic orb" video that looks inconsistent with a metallized party balloon flying at a decent height above the ground.
As Kirkpatrick noted, DoD sensor equipment is not designed to identify unusual objects. It's designed to achieve a tracking lock on recognizable objects sufficient to aim weaponry at them. And I think that probably has almost everything to do with why all the UAP reports he has have come from aircraft, and none of them from ground stations or satellites.
posted by flabdablet at 6:10 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
Summary: 15 days, 700 metafilter comments, and 1 congressional hearing later, absolutely nothing has changed evidence-wise.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 7:11 AM on August 1, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by Pyrogenesis at 7:11 AM on August 1, 2023 [10 favorites]
Yup. That's exactly how all alien things go, for all time.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:14 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:14 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Case closed, no aliens. Everyone go home!
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:20 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:20 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
As Kirkpatrick noted, DoD sensor equipment is not designed to identify unusual objects. It's designed to achieve a tracking lock on recognizable objects sufficient to aim weaponry at them. And I think that probably has almost everything to do with why all the UAP reports he has have come from aircraft, and none of them from ground stations or satellites.
the point about parallax is a good explanation for why we should be cautious about treating a single-sensor optical sighting of an object travelling in a straight line at a not-unusual speed as evidence of something extraordinary. and the point about what military sensors are and aren't designed to do is a good explanation for why some sightings in multi-sensor environments may only be detected by a single sensor, or by multiple sensors in a low-quality way that doesn't permit any meaningful conclusion to be drawn (e.g. about the object's size, speed, maneuvers, etc.).
however, when it comes to the importance of multi-sensor sightings, i think those points are closer to caveats than counterarguments, for a couple of reasons.
first, a sensor does not need to have been designed to identify an unusual object in order to detect said object, provided the object is within the sensor's detection parameters (e.g. it reflects a sufficient quantity of visible light, has a sufficient radar cross-section, etc. to be present in the data recorded by the sensor).
second, there is a distinction between (i) the uap reports and associated data that kirkpatrick has publicly detailed, (ii) the reports and data that kirkpatrick has received but not publicly detailed, and (iii) the reports and data that kickpatrick has not received and that have not otherwise been publicly detailed. for example, it appears highly likely that there is satellite imagery of uaps, based on the foia'd nro documents and other statements referred to above, despite kirkpatrick not having presented such imagery in public.
it may well be the case that holes can be convincingly poked in the reaper video and other limited data that has been released by kirkpatrick, but that has little relevance to sightings that are supported by multi-sensor data which, taken together, corroborates an extraordinary conclusion. e.g. a pilot sees an object that appears to be making a 200g turn at mach 10, which could be an optical illusion, except that a ship's radar shows returns consistent with an object doing so, which could (getting unlikely now!) be a false return that just happens to track with the pilot's observation, except that a series of images from a reconnaissance satellite show an object that is moving in a way consistent with the pilot's description and the radar returns. at which point i think you either need to conclude that some or all of this data is fabricated, or that an object did in fact do that.
of course you can posit that there are no such sightings, and that every single supposed multi-sensor sighting will on closer inspection amount to 'here's a low-res reaper video that can be explained by parallax, plus a guy on the ground said he thought he saw something but didn't get a good look, and then a radar installation 50 miles away got a weird return half an hour later'. but there's no reason in principle why that must be the case.
posted by inire at 7:20 AM on August 1, 2023
the point about parallax is a good explanation for why we should be cautious about treating a single-sensor optical sighting of an object travelling in a straight line at a not-unusual speed as evidence of something extraordinary. and the point about what military sensors are and aren't designed to do is a good explanation for why some sightings in multi-sensor environments may only be detected by a single sensor, or by multiple sensors in a low-quality way that doesn't permit any meaningful conclusion to be drawn (e.g. about the object's size, speed, maneuvers, etc.).
however, when it comes to the importance of multi-sensor sightings, i think those points are closer to caveats than counterarguments, for a couple of reasons.
first, a sensor does not need to have been designed to identify an unusual object in order to detect said object, provided the object is within the sensor's detection parameters (e.g. it reflects a sufficient quantity of visible light, has a sufficient radar cross-section, etc. to be present in the data recorded by the sensor).
second, there is a distinction between (i) the uap reports and associated data that kirkpatrick has publicly detailed, (ii) the reports and data that kirkpatrick has received but not publicly detailed, and (iii) the reports and data that kickpatrick has not received and that have not otherwise been publicly detailed. for example, it appears highly likely that there is satellite imagery of uaps, based on the foia'd nro documents and other statements referred to above, despite kirkpatrick not having presented such imagery in public.
it may well be the case that holes can be convincingly poked in the reaper video and other limited data that has been released by kirkpatrick, but that has little relevance to sightings that are supported by multi-sensor data which, taken together, corroborates an extraordinary conclusion. e.g. a pilot sees an object that appears to be making a 200g turn at mach 10, which could be an optical illusion, except that a ship's radar shows returns consistent with an object doing so, which could (getting unlikely now!) be a false return that just happens to track with the pilot's observation, except that a series of images from a reconnaissance satellite show an object that is moving in a way consistent with the pilot's description and the radar returns. at which point i think you either need to conclude that some or all of this data is fabricated, or that an object did in fact do that.
of course you can posit that there are no such sightings, and that every single supposed multi-sensor sighting will on closer inspection amount to 'here's a low-res reaper video that can be explained by parallax, plus a guy on the ground said he thought he saw something but didn't get a good look, and then a radar installation 50 miles away got a weird return half an hour later'. but there's no reason in principle why that must be the case.
posted by inire at 7:20 AM on August 1, 2023
Case closed, no aliens. Everyone go home!
Or hang around for more exegesis of a false dilemma! Whatever floats your non-euclidean quantum raft.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:26 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Or hang around for more exegesis of a false dilemma! Whatever floats your non-euclidean quantum raft.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:26 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Summary: 15 days, 700 metafilter comments, and 1 congressional hearing later, absolutely nothing has changed evidence-wise.
if only we'd all posted harder, they might have released the bodies.
posted by inire at 7:26 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
if only we'd all posted harder, they might have released the bodies.
posted by inire at 7:26 AM on August 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
there's no reason in principle why that must be the case.
No reason in principle. Many thousands in practice. Possibly tens to hundreds of thousands.
The race isn't always to the swift nor the contest to the strong, but that's the way to bet.
posted by flabdablet at 7:29 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
No reason in principle. Many thousands in practice. Possibly tens to hundreds of thousands.
The race isn't always to the swift nor the contest to the strong, but that's the way to bet.
posted by flabdablet at 7:29 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Since we evidently didn't post hard enough for them to release the bodies, that must be true.
Otherwise, they were never going to release the bodies; so they must exist that way too.
Am I doing it right?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:31 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Otherwise, they were never going to release the bodies; so they must exist that way too.
Am I doing it right?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:31 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm hanging around in hopes the aliens come destroy us so I no longer have to pay rent.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:32 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:32 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
There's plenty of snark in this thread, but I don't think the majority of it is coming from the "true believers." Just sayin'.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:41 AM on August 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 7:41 AM on August 1, 2023 [6 favorites]
No reason in principle. Many thousands in practice. Possibly tens to hundreds of thousands.
possibly! this is in part why i think the hearings and legislation are potentially useful - getting more details about sighting data that hasn't previously been disclosed will help to narrow down the possibility space (even if that's towards a smaller number of potential explanations rather than a single explanation, it's still helpful).
I don't think the majority of it is coming from the "true believers."
clearly i've been slacking, i need to up my game (and my belief levels).
posted by inire at 7:46 AM on August 1, 2023
possibly! this is in part why i think the hearings and legislation are potentially useful - getting more details about sighting data that hasn't previously been disclosed will help to narrow down the possibility space (even if that's towards a smaller number of potential explanations rather than a single explanation, it's still helpful).
I don't think the majority of it is coming from the "true believers."
clearly i've been slacking, i need to up my game (and my belief levels).
posted by inire at 7:46 AM on August 1, 2023
absolutely nothing has changed evidence-wise.
It reminds me of older debates and hearings for smoking and cancer, carbs versus fat dieting, global warming, evolution and "missing links"...
posted by Brian B. at 8:10 AM on August 1, 2023
It reminds me of older debates and hearings for smoking and cancer, carbs versus fat dieting, global warming, evolution and "missing links"...
posted by Brian B. at 8:10 AM on August 1, 2023
It reminds me of older debates and hearings for smoking and cancer, carbs versus fat dieting, global warming, evolution and "missing links"...
You mean, debates where ideologues and liars for money refused to change their mind despite mountains of evidence showing that they are wrong?
I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 8:27 AM on August 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
You mean, debates where ideologues and liars for money refused to change their mind despite mountains of evidence showing that they are wrong?
I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 8:27 AM on August 1, 2023 [7 favorites]
I’m hoping that if I dig enough of a hole for myself as a skeptic the universe can only respond to my hubris by manifesting actual evidence of aliens.
The Nimitz incident in 2004 happened to occur near a base where NASA had been doing studies that invoked launching a number of specialized high altitude balloons. In the weeks prior they had been launching as many is 21 high altitude balloons per week. The objects were initially reported to be at 80,000 ft, but that is also an upper limit on some of their equipment — like the classic Chernobyl radiation sensor problem.
Pilots saw some strange silver spheres high in the sky about the time a lot of weather balloons had been launched. Some of them dropped very quickly down to ocean level. Then they saw another identical object up in the sky moments later and decided it was the original object making impossible maneuvers. Since at the time these reports were generally ignored no checking / investigation was done until years a later. This is why we have AARO. Instead of calling rhe pilots crazy we should investigate in a professional manner. It could have been Chinese balloons taking advantage of the NASA launches to put some of their own balloons up there to monitor US Navy exercises. Then when they got spotted they destroyed their ballon causing it to plummet to the ocean.
posted by interogative mood at 9:54 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Nimitz incident in 2004 happened to occur near a base where NASA had been doing studies that invoked launching a number of specialized high altitude balloons. In the weeks prior they had been launching as many is 21 high altitude balloons per week. The objects were initially reported to be at 80,000 ft, but that is also an upper limit on some of their equipment — like the classic Chernobyl radiation sensor problem.
Pilots saw some strange silver spheres high in the sky about the time a lot of weather balloons had been launched. Some of them dropped very quickly down to ocean level. Then they saw another identical object up in the sky moments later and decided it was the original object making impossible maneuvers. Since at the time these reports were generally ignored no checking / investigation was done until years a later. This is why we have AARO. Instead of calling rhe pilots crazy we should investigate in a professional manner. It could have been Chinese balloons taking advantage of the NASA launches to put some of their own balloons up there to monitor US Navy exercises. Then when they got spotted they destroyed their ballon causing it to plummet to the ocean.
posted by interogative mood at 9:54 AM on August 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Meant to add: Most likely though it was just left hand not in knowing what right hand was doing(Not China)
posted by interogative mood at 9:57 AM on August 1, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 9:57 AM on August 1, 2023
You mean, debates where ideologues and liars for money refused to change their mind despite mountains of evidence showing that they are wrong?
Not unless they are donut-loving smoking creationists who deny global warming and admiral promotion. Information volume is driven by popular demand, basically a fear of being wrong. Note what happened to Fox News or any moderate Republican when they tried to leave the cult of Trump. Parallel to this you have conspiracies popping up to explain major changes caused by minor circumstance; whether a lone gunman or a moon landing, it amounts to a failed expectation by changing the terms of a comforting narrative about the world.
Instead of calling the pilots crazy we should investigate in a professional manner.
Agreed. One can't decry the lack of evidence when it was discouraged from being reported by the front line observers. Those little green straw men have done their jobs to spin the evidence.
posted by Brian B. at 10:38 AM on August 1, 2023
Not unless they are donut-loving smoking creationists who deny global warming and admiral promotion. Information volume is driven by popular demand, basically a fear of being wrong. Note what happened to Fox News or any moderate Republican when they tried to leave the cult of Trump. Parallel to this you have conspiracies popping up to explain major changes caused by minor circumstance; whether a lone gunman or a moon landing, it amounts to a failed expectation by changing the terms of a comforting narrative about the world.
Instead of calling the pilots crazy we should investigate in a professional manner.
Agreed. One can't decry the lack of evidence when it was discouraged from being reported by the front line observers. Those little green straw men have done their jobs to spin the evidence.
posted by Brian B. at 10:38 AM on August 1, 2023
In other space news, V'ger has been heard from again.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:30 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:30 AM on August 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
...Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.
In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics.
These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.
There are probably multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations based on the range of appearances and behaviors described in the available reporting...
UAP THREATEN FLIGHT SAFETY AND, POSSIBLY, NATIONAL SECURITY
UAP pose a hazard to safety of flight and could pose a broader danger if some instances represent sophisticated collection against U.S. military activities by a foreign government or demonstrate a breakthrough aerospace technology by a potential adversary.
Ongoing Airspace Concerns
When aviators encounter safety hazards, they are required to report these concerns. Depending on the location, volume, and behavior of hazards during incursions on ranges, pilots may cease their tests and/or training and land their aircraft, which has a deterrent effect on reporting.
• The UAPTF has 11 reports [*] of documented instances in which pilots reported near misses with a UAP.
Potential National Security Challenges
We currently lack data to indicate any UAP are part of a foreign collection program or indicative of a major technological advancement by a potential adversary. We continue to monitor for evidence of such programs given the counter intelligence challenge they would pose, particularly as some UAP have been detected near military facilities or by aircraft carrying the USG’s most advanced sensor systems.
UNIDENTIFIED AERIAL PHENOMENA
Preliminary Intelligence Assessment
*11 reports of near collisions between 2020 to 2022
...These reports describe incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021, with the majority coming in the last two years as the new reporting mechanism became better known to the military aviation community. We were able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others remain unexplained.(Naturally enough, this came to mind upon reading about the near collisions...)
posted by y2karl at 10:19 PM on August 1, 2023
I suspect that you and I were exposed to different media during our formative years. This is what came to my mind.
posted by flabdablet at 12:01 AM on August 2, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 12:01 AM on August 2, 2023
Not unless they are donut-loving smoking creationists who deny global warming and admiral promotion. Information volume is driven by popular demand, basically a fear of being wrong. Note what happened to Fox News or any moderate Republican when they tried to leave the cult of Trump. Parallel to this you have conspiracies popping up to explain major changes caused by minor circumstance; whether a lone gunman or a moon landing, it amounts to a failed expectation by changing the terms of a comforting narrative about the world.
I'm sorry but I think I'm stupid, I still don't get what you're trying to say. Like, honestly. I mean, if your point is that there have always been both whackadoodles, vested interests, and manipulation of information, then we are in agreement. But what way do you think that usually goes? Somehow I think you're trying to say the opposite of what I was saying, somehow? But I don't get it.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 3:40 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm sorry but I think I'm stupid, I still don't get what you're trying to say. Like, honestly. I mean, if your point is that there have always been both whackadoodles, vested interests, and manipulation of information, then we are in agreement. But what way do you think that usually goes? Somehow I think you're trying to say the opposite of what I was saying, somehow? But I don't get it.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 3:40 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Apparently there has just been a disturbance in the Whatever.
posted by y2karl at 8:53 AM on August 2, 2023
posted by y2karl at 8:53 AM on August 2, 2023
But what way do you think that usually goes?
There are six players involved, per plausible eyewitness incident, and anyone can connect the dots that matter. All so-called FOAF reports (Friend of a Friend) should be dismissed as potential disinformation or errant obsession.
1. An advanced civilization that by definition explores space with robotic drones, because it is impractical to send life forms for an eternity of life support and threat of contamination of crew and targets. Chances are high they've seen our planet already.
2. Hollywood producers who tell stories by metaphor to safely tap into audience anxieties, like a dream, and who will favor an alien over an alien robot, for clarity. This renews the old belief in pixies, fairies, elves and sprites.
3. Admirals who toe the line with idiot lawmakers, fearing budget demands or lack of promotions based on favoritism. This isn't just normal fear, but the existential dread of an aging man.
4. Young military pilots who are reluctant to report even upper atmospheric lightning that shoots into space, for fear of being grounded, because they are highly monitored for oxygen issues and other physical effects of flying.
5. Most people, who conflate alien craft with alien form because robotics are not fully conceived as the best package for deep exploration, and because they had a childhood filled with alien lore.
6. An advanced jet with our latest and best technology, which is likely the only human object that any drone would be interested in knowing about.
posted by Brian B. at 8:56 AM on August 2, 2023
There are six players involved, per plausible eyewitness incident, and anyone can connect the dots that matter. All so-called FOAF reports (Friend of a Friend) should be dismissed as potential disinformation or errant obsession.
1. An advanced civilization that by definition explores space with robotic drones, because it is impractical to send life forms for an eternity of life support and threat of contamination of crew and targets. Chances are high they've seen our planet already.
2. Hollywood producers who tell stories by metaphor to safely tap into audience anxieties, like a dream, and who will favor an alien over an alien robot, for clarity. This renews the old belief in pixies, fairies, elves and sprites.
3. Admirals who toe the line with idiot lawmakers, fearing budget demands or lack of promotions based on favoritism. This isn't just normal fear, but the existential dread of an aging man.
4. Young military pilots who are reluctant to report even upper atmospheric lightning that shoots into space, for fear of being grounded, because they are highly monitored for oxygen issues and other physical effects of flying.
5. Most people, who conflate alien craft with alien form because robotics are not fully conceived as the best package for deep exploration, and because they had a childhood filled with alien lore.
6. An advanced jet with our latest and best technology, which is likely the only human object that any drone would be interested in knowing about.
posted by Brian B. at 8:56 AM on August 2, 2023
Worth revising this article in The New Republic from 2021: How Washington Got Hooked on Flying Saucers
There is also this long discussion by Mick West and and Jason Covalito (the article’s author)
The 80 of the 144 incidents in the US Intelligency community report above had multi-sensor data. However the report includes visual observation as a sensor. So if a pilot saw something and it was recorded on camera that’s two sensors. Our radars have also gotten more sensitive and as the report notes our object identification capabilities have not kept up. We are now able to detect Chinese spy balloons but we are also chasing a lot of lost party balloons.
The more I read about this the more I’m convinced it is bad software and bad user interfaces.
posted by interogative mood at 9:17 AM on August 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
There is also this long discussion by Mick West and and Jason Covalito (the article’s author)
The 80 of the 144 incidents in the US Intelligency community report above had multi-sensor data. However the report includes visual observation as a sensor. So if a pilot saw something and it was recorded on camera that’s two sensors. Our radars have also gotten more sensitive and as the report notes our object identification capabilities have not kept up. We are now able to detect Chinese spy balloons but we are also chasing a lot of lost party balloons.
The more I read about this the more I’m convinced it is bad software and bad user interfaces.
posted by interogative mood at 9:17 AM on August 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Here’s some contemporary accounts of shooting down the second balloon during the balloon crisis, which basically has all the reported drama (improbable movements, interfering with sensors etc…) and was actually just a hobbyist groups pico balloon.
posted by Artw at 9:27 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 9:27 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
And here we are, weeks past the sham "hearings" and there's still no evidence but the UFO advocates are STILL claiming that they were totally vindicated and that somehow the non-evidence presented means anyone who doesn't believe in UFO's is a closed minded fool who won't accept the obvious truth.
The more this goes on the more obvious it is that UFO's are a religion because everything is playing out EXACTLY the same way it does when I'm sucker enough to get into a religous discussion.
The exact same total lack of evidence that is, somehow, held up as if it was evidence.
The exact same weird ontological games where I'm the bad anti-intellectual becuse I won't just accept the belief on faith.
The exact same nit picking hyper focus on all details of the skeptical position while totally ignoring the gaping holes and complete lack of evidence on the faithful position.
UFO's, Flat Earth, and religion all have precicely the same pattern to their apologaea.
Which is why I feel confident that we've seen everything that will ever come from this circus. There's nothing to reveal, the true believers got their moment of Congress endorsing their faith, and the actual moment of presenting the real evidence will never arrive but the sham hearing will be held up forever as if it was proof they were right.
posted by sotonohito at 9:53 AM on August 2, 2023 [7 favorites]
The more this goes on the more obvious it is that UFO's are a religion because everything is playing out EXACTLY the same way it does when I'm sucker enough to get into a religous discussion.
The exact same total lack of evidence that is, somehow, held up as if it was evidence.
The exact same weird ontological games where I'm the bad anti-intellectual becuse I won't just accept the belief on faith.
The exact same nit picking hyper focus on all details of the skeptical position while totally ignoring the gaping holes and complete lack of evidence on the faithful position.
UFO's, Flat Earth, and religion all have precicely the same pattern to their apologaea.
Which is why I feel confident that we've seen everything that will ever come from this circus. There's nothing to reveal, the true believers got their moment of Congress endorsing their faith, and the actual moment of presenting the real evidence will never arrive but the sham hearing will be held up forever as if it was proof they were right.
posted by sotonohito at 9:53 AM on August 2, 2023 [7 favorites]
I predict after they do some polling on belief in aliens and fear of the deep state that the Republicans are going to come back from the August recess having decided that Joe Biden covered up the existence of aliens and the officials who testified before Congress are guilty of lying to Congress and America about it. They will plan a series of shocking hearings with whatever evidence they can muster. Remember Obama's Birth certificate -- the truth and evidence don't matter to them. They will roll out some "blockbuster" hearings on the matter where they parade the people Grusch pointed them towards. There will be "evidence" that has been floating around for years like pieces of metal of dubious provenience and claims of mysterious properties / isotypes. It's going to be a complete shit show.
posted by interogative mood at 11:03 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 11:03 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Wow, you can guys predict the future! Perhaps you possess psychic powers?
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 11:34 AM on August 2, 2023
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 11:34 AM on August 2, 2023
And here we are, one week past the most recent hearing, and people have forgotten that the evidence being talked about in the hearing was not presented to them, nor was it meant to be presented to them.
Stuff that's classified is going to stay classified unless Biden does something about it (or unless the Department of Energy does something about the stuff under their control.)
Expect more hearings with more people as various committees (two so far) do their digging.
I'm not a believer. I don't think any of the potential outcomes require my belief.
posted by emelenjr at 11:43 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Stuff that's classified is going to stay classified unless Biden does something about it (or unless the Department of Energy does something about the stuff under their control.)
Expect more hearings with more people as various committees (two so far) do their digging.
I'm not a believer. I don't think any of the potential outcomes require my belief.
posted by emelenjr at 11:43 AM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
The 80 of the 144 incidents in the US Intelligency community report above had multi-sensor data. However the report includes visual observation as a sensor. So if a pilot saw something and it was recorded on camera that’s two sensors. Our radars have also gotten more sensitive and as the report notes our object identification capabilities have not kept up. We are now able to detect Chinese spy balloons but we are also chasing a lot of lost party balloons.
The more I read about this the more I’m convinced it is bad software and bad user interfaces.
yes, the fact that something is technically a 'multi-sensor sighting' doesn't mean it's slam dunk evidence of anything remotely unusual, as i mentioned above, and it's perfectly possible to have a single-sensor sighting (e.g. a high-res series of satellite photos showing what is clearly a technological object moving through cloud banks at mach 20) that is higher quality evidence than a multi-sensor sighting (flir blob and distant glimpse by pilot). but i think it's reasonable to expect that if there is high quality evidence of physical objects behaving in extraordinary ways, the majority of that is more likely to come from the multi-sensor category, given the degree to which that can help rule out the kind of errors that can be present in a single sensor.
The exact same weird ontological games where I'm the bad anti-intellectual becuse I won't just accept the belief on faith.
The exact same nit picking hyper focus on all details of the skeptical position while totally ignoring the gaping holes and complete lack of evidence on the faithful position.
no one who's still in the thread is asking you to adopt the faithful position or accept the belief on faith that aliens are here, or indeed arguing against there being gaping holes in that position, so you may be arguing against your own misperception there (which is ironic). the argument is that the situation merits you being slightly less certain about the wrongness of that position and the rightness of your own. there's no longer anyone in here expressing the faithful position, as far as i can see, but if someone turns up i'm happy to poke holes in their arguments as well.
and why would anyone object to their position being closely scrutinised? frankly, i thought the 'true' skeptical approach (i.e. not the kneejerk 'lol it's not aliens because obviously it's not' approach) was keen on picking at the details - that's basically the entirety of what mick west et al do, and it's a valuable approach. it's easy to state something that sounds convincing in broad terms, that then turns out to be full of holes - or nits - once you get into it. you can argue that there are even more nits in the 'it's definitely aliens!' position, which is true, but that's not going to solve the numerous problems with the 'it's definitely not aliens!' position (as it's been expressed here, anyway).
posted by inire at 11:51 AM on August 2, 2023
The more I read about this the more I’m convinced it is bad software and bad user interfaces.
yes, the fact that something is technically a 'multi-sensor sighting' doesn't mean it's slam dunk evidence of anything remotely unusual, as i mentioned above, and it's perfectly possible to have a single-sensor sighting (e.g. a high-res series of satellite photos showing what is clearly a technological object moving through cloud banks at mach 20) that is higher quality evidence than a multi-sensor sighting (flir blob and distant glimpse by pilot). but i think it's reasonable to expect that if there is high quality evidence of physical objects behaving in extraordinary ways, the majority of that is more likely to come from the multi-sensor category, given the degree to which that can help rule out the kind of errors that can be present in a single sensor.
The exact same weird ontological games where I'm the bad anti-intellectual becuse I won't just accept the belief on faith.
The exact same nit picking hyper focus on all details of the skeptical position while totally ignoring the gaping holes and complete lack of evidence on the faithful position.
no one who's still in the thread is asking you to adopt the faithful position or accept the belief on faith that aliens are here, or indeed arguing against there being gaping holes in that position, so you may be arguing against your own misperception there (which is ironic). the argument is that the situation merits you being slightly less certain about the wrongness of that position and the rightness of your own. there's no longer anyone in here expressing the faithful position, as far as i can see, but if someone turns up i'm happy to poke holes in their arguments as well.
and why would anyone object to their position being closely scrutinised? frankly, i thought the 'true' skeptical approach (i.e. not the kneejerk 'lol it's not aliens because obviously it's not' approach) was keen on picking at the details - that's basically the entirety of what mick west et al do, and it's a valuable approach. it's easy to state something that sounds convincing in broad terms, that then turns out to be full of holes - or nits - once you get into it. you can argue that there are even more nits in the 'it's definitely aliens!' position, which is true, but that's not going to solve the numerous problems with the 'it's definitely not aliens!' position (as it's been expressed here, anyway).
posted by inire at 11:51 AM on August 2, 2023
Any discussion of possible psychic powers I may or may not posses and/or discussion of related evidence to any such abilities or lack of abilities, is not something that I can participate in within an open venue such as this. Any assumption about NDAs or other legal agreements that constrain my participation with organizations such as the James Randy Foundation, the US Government or others that I may or may not be a party to would be entirely speculation on your part. I neither confirm nor deny the existence of any such contract, agreement, law, order, or provisions of a contract, agreement or law, or order either written or verbal related to any possible constraints on my discussion of such matters. Thank you for your understanding.
posted by interogative mood at 1:28 PM on August 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:28 PM on August 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
Interrogative Mood no doubt will be expanding on this further in the Secure Cabal Chat, and we should assume a weighty and significant conversation is happening there.
posted by Artw at 1:33 PM on August 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 1:33 PM on August 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
UFO's, Flat Earth, and religion all have precicely the same pattern to their apologaea.
Follow the emotions. Religion is based on prophecies by cult leaders, usually a remnant of a so-called big man cargo culture which evolved to deliver the rain and eternal life. A modern version is prophesied communism as the giver of everything, which compels people to surrender it all in order to receive it, which is a non-human instinct. Flat earth seems to be a way to attract the most contrarian followers of suggestion, an apparent class of people. It does resemble a denial of an inhabited galaxy though, so a wash. UFO hysteria, which comes in waves, is inspired by suspicion, a conspiracy mindset that needs to discredit a government, not religion. What can they blame the government for if they lack evidence of misdeeds? Only alien bodies and their ships work best as a guess, because it's a symbol of hidden power and makes the fear happen, and explains why we can't see them. Saying the government has nothing physical to hide is the likelihood, but if we are first required to believe other worlds can't or don't exist, that is based on faith and the human-centered universe that condemned Galileo. It helps to consider that aliens don't exist anywhere, because on their planets they aren't aliens, and they don't need to leave to discover the galaxy. Hard to imagine an advanced technological society not exploring space, but maybe to some the idea of advancement is more like nirvana than scientific progress.
posted by Brian B. at 1:34 PM on August 2, 2023
Follow the emotions. Religion is based on prophecies by cult leaders, usually a remnant of a so-called big man cargo culture which evolved to deliver the rain and eternal life. A modern version is prophesied communism as the giver of everything, which compels people to surrender it all in order to receive it, which is a non-human instinct. Flat earth seems to be a way to attract the most contrarian followers of suggestion, an apparent class of people. It does resemble a denial of an inhabited galaxy though, so a wash. UFO hysteria, which comes in waves, is inspired by suspicion, a conspiracy mindset that needs to discredit a government, not religion. What can they blame the government for if they lack evidence of misdeeds? Only alien bodies and their ships work best as a guess, because it's a symbol of hidden power and makes the fear happen, and explains why we can't see them. Saying the government has nothing physical to hide is the likelihood, but if we are first required to believe other worlds can't or don't exist, that is based on faith and the human-centered universe that condemned Galileo. It helps to consider that aliens don't exist anywhere, because on their planets they aren't aliens, and they don't need to leave to discover the galaxy. Hard to imagine an advanced technological society not exploring space, but maybe to some the idea of advancement is more like nirvana than scientific progress.
posted by Brian B. at 1:34 PM on August 2, 2023
UFO's, Flat Earth, and religion all have precicely the same pattern to their apologaea.
Precicely?
Also, apologaea?
posted by y2karl at 4:17 PM on August 2, 2023
Precicely?
Also, apologaea?
posted by y2karl at 4:17 PM on August 2, 2023
Brian B. who argues that the universe is uninhabited? I certainly don't.
While we don't have evidence for alien life yet it seems really improbable to think that out of the 100 billion (low end estimate) stars in our galaxy alone we're the only one with life.
I just don't think it's possible for any people out there to try to hide from us and fail. U explained observations almost certainly have mundane explanations because the tech required to travel between stars precludes crashes and bad cloaking devices.
y2karl apparently I used a fictitious irregular singular, sorry. It's something I like to do on purpose just because I like playing with language but it was accidental here. Ida sworn that the singular of apologetics was officially apologaea.
In any event, I suppose I exaggerated when I said precisely the same. The cadence is the same. The flow of argument is the same. The reliance on selective skepticism is the same. The utter absence of evidence for their position while obsessing over supposed flaws in the realists position is the same.
And most importantly the failure to really think through their own position and what it would mean if it really was true is the same.
posted by sotonohito at 5:24 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
While we don't have evidence for alien life yet it seems really improbable to think that out of the 100 billion (low end estimate) stars in our galaxy alone we're the only one with life.
I just don't think it's possible for any people out there to try to hide from us and fail. U explained observations almost certainly have mundane explanations because the tech required to travel between stars precludes crashes and bad cloaking devices.
y2karl apparently I used a fictitious irregular singular, sorry. It's something I like to do on purpose just because I like playing with language but it was accidental here. Ida sworn that the singular of apologetics was officially apologaea.
In any event, I suppose I exaggerated when I said precisely the same. The cadence is the same. The flow of argument is the same. The reliance on selective skepticism is the same. The utter absence of evidence for their position while obsessing over supposed flaws in the realists position is the same.
And most importantly the failure to really think through their own position and what it would mean if it really was true is the same.
posted by sotonohito at 5:24 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
sotonohito: "Brian B. who argues that the universe is uninhabited? I certainly don't."
I would be personally be up for a spirited discussion about the idea that the universe is entirely uninhabited.
posted by signal at 6:10 PM on August 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
I would be personally be up for a spirited discussion about the idea that the universe is entirely uninhabited.
posted by signal at 6:10 PM on August 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
You can’t say there’s not evidence of that, you just haven’t seen it yet.
posted by Artw at 6:14 PM on August 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:14 PM on August 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not all of us are as ardently and adamantly assured that we and we alone know the absolute truth and must maintain our snarkers set at Full Belittle and fire continuously at all times. Those who apparently do seem by far to be the bulk of the PerniciousTrue Believers here. Me, I don’t have a postgraduate degree on military thermal imaging technology from IJustGoogledThisOutofMyAss University.
What has come to my mind of late is the reveal in Childhood's End* by Arthur C. Clarke.. And by the way, the International Space Station is the size of a football field. Anyone or machine getting here at sub-light speeds would probably have drones or shuttlecraft or drones that size or bigger. If it's a case of Everything Everywhere All at Once, well, Katy, bar the door, we are in shit so deep. The thought that haunts me of late is the powers to be in times past were so afraid of mass panic that they managed, pardon the mixed metaphor, to kick the ball so far down the road as to paint themselves into a corner guaranteeing it. Well, another pin drops tomorrow. And TFG gets a mugshot. What did I say about Year of the Jackpot?
*It came as a disappointing surprise to learn Syfy ran an American-Australian produced miniseries on it that, from the clips, is too OMFG utterly horrid to be linked anywhere. Just read the book.
posted by y2karl at 7:07 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
What has come to my mind of late is the reveal in Childhood's End* by Arthur C. Clarke.. And by the way, the International Space Station is the size of a football field. Anyone or machine getting here at sub-light speeds would probably have drones or shuttlecraft or drones that size or bigger. If it's a case of Everything Everywhere All at Once, well, Katy, bar the door, we are in shit so deep. The thought that haunts me of late is the powers to be in times past were so afraid of mass panic that they managed, pardon the mixed metaphor, to kick the ball so far down the road as to paint themselves into a corner guaranteeing it. Well, another pin drops tomorrow. And TFG gets a mugshot. What did I say about Year of the Jackpot?
*It came as a disappointing surprise to learn Syfy ran an American-Australian produced miniseries on it that, from the clips, is too OMFG utterly horrid to be linked anywhere. Just read the book.
posted by y2karl at 7:07 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Here’s a fun one.
UFOs are the story of the century — wake up, America!
By a rear admiral, very impressive guy.
As a retired U.S. Navy flag officer, I can attest to the integrity and authenticity of the two pilots who testified: retired Commander David Fravor and Ryan Graves. I have served on three aircraft carriers and count many Naval aviators as close friends. These two witnesses are the real deal.
Okay. Likes those guys. Good news for Ryan Graves, executive director of Americans for Safe Aerospace.
Several U.S. research institutions are already making remarkable progress, including Harvard University’s Galileo Project and Stanford University’s Nolan Lab. Based on the observed flight characteristics detailed in the hearing, the results of this endeavor could make the scientific revolution of the 16th and 17th centuries look like baby steps, with wide-ranging benefits in areas as diverse as transportation safety, agricultural productivity, energy efficiency, environmental stewardship and human health.
Uh huh…
And…
Rear Admiral (ret.) Tim Gallaudet, Ph.D., is the CEO of Ocean STL Consulting, LLC , a research affiliate with Harvard University’s Galileo Project, and a member of the advisory board of Americans for Safe Aerospace. He is a former acting and deputy administrator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), acting undersecretary and assistant secretary of Commerce, and oceanographer in the Navy.
Welp. Certainly a man who puts his mouth where his money is.
posted by Artw at 10:36 PM on August 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
UFOs are the story of the century — wake up, America!
By a rear admiral, very impressive guy.
As a retired U.S. Navy flag officer, I can attest to the integrity and authenticity of the two pilots who testified: retired Commander David Fravor and Ryan Graves. I have served on three aircraft carriers and count many Naval aviators as close friends. These two witnesses are the real deal.
Okay. Likes those guys. Good news for Ryan Graves, executive director of Americans for Safe Aerospace.
Several U.S. research institutions are already making remarkable progress, including Harvard University’s Galileo Project and Stanford University’s Nolan Lab. Based on the observed flight characteristics detailed in the hearing, the results of this endeavor could make the scientific revolution of the 16th and 17th centuries look like baby steps, with wide-ranging benefits in areas as diverse as transportation safety, agricultural productivity, energy efficiency, environmental stewardship and human health.
Uh huh…
And…
Rear Admiral (ret.) Tim Gallaudet, Ph.D., is the CEO of Ocean STL Consulting, LLC , a research affiliate with Harvard University’s Galileo Project, and a member of the advisory board of Americans for Safe Aerospace. He is a former acting and deputy administrator at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), acting undersecretary and assistant secretary of Commerce, and oceanographer in the Navy.
Welp. Certainly a man who puts his mouth where his money is.
posted by Artw at 10:36 PM on August 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
His partner in his project at Harvard is Avi Loeb. He has been a true believer in UFOs/UAPs for a long time. I don’t think he’s credible.
posted by interogative mood at 11:24 PM on August 2, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 11:24 PM on August 2, 2023
Well, another pin drops tomorrow.
Yes, I would like some nothingfries with my nothingburger. Thanks very much! Yeah, you have a great day too.
posted by flabdablet at 11:38 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yes, I would like some nothingfries with my nothingburger. Thanks very much! Yeah, you have a great day too.
posted by flabdablet at 11:38 PM on August 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Is "another pin drops" a metaphor for something that happens very quietly and without any consequence?
posted by Pyrogenesis at 2:44 AM on August 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Pyrogenesis at 2:44 AM on August 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
Snarkers still set at Full Belittle, I see.
posted by y2karl at 3:03 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by y2karl at 3:03 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
I suppose I exaggerated when I said precisely the same. The cadence is the same. The flow of argument is the same. The reliance on selective skepticism is the same. The utter absence of evidence for their position while obsessing over supposed flaws in the realists position is the same.
And most importantly the failure to really think through their own position and what it would mean if it really was true is the same.
interesting. and these true believers, are they in the thread with us right now?
as y2karl alludes to, there are plenty of similarities between the skeptical position (as expressed in this thread) and the true believer position, and yet these mysteriously fail to appear on the skeptics’ radar. an unexplained phenomenon that surely merits further research by some steely-eyed investigator...
posted by inire at 3:15 AM on August 3, 2023
And most importantly the failure to really think through their own position and what it would mean if it really was true is the same.
interesting. and these true believers, are they in the thread with us right now?
as y2karl alludes to, there are plenty of similarities between the skeptical position (as expressed in this thread) and the true believer position, and yet these mysteriously fail to appear on the skeptics’ radar. an unexplained phenomenon that surely merits further research by some steely-eyed investigator...
posted by inire at 3:15 AM on August 3, 2023
Certainly a man who puts his mouth where his money is.
aside from the lack of evidence (uh oh!) as to which came first - his views or his involvement in these no doubt enormously lucrative positions - i’m eager to hear why it’s damaging for gallaudet’s credibility to have his mouth and money pushing in the same direction, but not (apparently) damaging for professional skeptics to be in the same position.
for example, jason colavito (who wrote the new republic article linked by interogative mood above) is an author whose work is largely focused on debunking theories about aliens and fringe archaeology, and whose career and financial wellbeing might therefore be expected to heavily depend on this not being aliens – likely to a greater degree than gallaudet's dependence on the reverse, as one would think he's less likely to be strapped for cash given his cv.
do you think that has any relevance to colavito’s credibility? if not, why not?
posted by inire at 3:16 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
aside from the lack of evidence (uh oh!) as to which came first - his views or his involvement in these no doubt enormously lucrative positions - i’m eager to hear why it’s damaging for gallaudet’s credibility to have his mouth and money pushing in the same direction, but not (apparently) damaging for professional skeptics to be in the same position.
for example, jason colavito (who wrote the new republic article linked by interogative mood above) is an author whose work is largely focused on debunking theories about aliens and fringe archaeology, and whose career and financial wellbeing might therefore be expected to heavily depend on this not being aliens – likely to a greater degree than gallaudet's dependence on the reverse, as one would think he's less likely to be strapped for cash given his cv.
do you think that has any relevance to colavito’s credibility? if not, why not?
posted by inire at 3:16 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Watching people gleefully refutorizing the dumbbells with naked contempt over and over and over is so depressingly weird. All these Horatios on the bridge they set on fire, making themselves right by making other people wrong reminds me of when a Scientologist long ago once told me from the top Understand That You Are Wrong. It's like from when people thought the proper way to housebreak a dog was to rub its nose into its own shit. Seriously, who does that anymore?
posted by y2karl at 6:01 AM on August 3, 2023
posted by y2karl at 6:01 AM on August 3, 2023
I would be personally be up for a spirited discussion about the idea that the universe is entirely uninhabited.
It would help to clarify the points of view, and it is the historical position.
posted by Brian B. at 6:09 AM on August 3, 2023
It would help to clarify the points of view, and it is the historical position.
posted by Brian B. at 6:09 AM on August 3, 2023
That is incorrect
Refutorizing is the answer
Refutorizing will protect you from the terrible secret of space
posted by flabdablet at 8:01 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Refutorizing is the answer
Refutorizing will protect you from the terrible secret of space
posted by flabdablet at 8:01 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Here is a brief outline of abduction, not the alien kind, but abductive reasoning. Lack of evidence is normal but conclusions can be made. Next we might define inhabited to include habitable, life support as we know it. We might propose that biological success was followed by competitive survival against similar or same species by the evolution of design, like forts and weapons, leading to rockets. The question is, if we are alone, is why or how?
posted by Brian B. at 8:49 AM on August 3, 2023
posted by Brian B. at 8:49 AM on August 3, 2023
I think they meant entirely uninhabited, including Earth. Now *that* would be an interesting argument to see defended.
In other news:
Pilots Are Seeing Some Very Strange Things In Arizona’s Military Training Ranges
In other news:
Pilots Are Seeing Some Very Strange Things In Arizona’s Military Training Ranges
Encounters with small unidentified "objects," sometimes in swarm-like groups of as many as eight. Sightings of other objects, including some characterized as drones, flying at altitudes up to 36,000 feet and as fast as Mach 0.75. Another apparent small drone actually hitting the canopy of an F-16 Viper causing damage. These incidents and many more, all occurred in or around various military air combat training ranges in Arizona since January 2020.posted by Rhaomi at 9:56 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
The events are described in reports from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) filed over roughly a three-year period. Overall, the data points to what are often categorized as drones, but many of which are actually unidentified objects, as well as what do appear to be drones, or uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), intruding into these restricted warning areas with alarming regularity.
I think they meant entirely uninhabited, including Earth. Now *that* would be an interesting argument to see defended.
Entirely doable by the means we have seen employed here, I think.
The only issue is the allowability or otherwise of Boltzman Brains.
posted by Artw at 10:18 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Entirely doable by the means we have seen employed here, I think.
The only issue is the allowability or otherwise of Boltzman Brains.
posted by Artw at 10:18 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
One of their collaborators on the Galileo project is Garry Nolan who as far as I can tell seems to be fairly well respected in the fields of immunology and medicine. Many of Grusch's claims about craft and objects seem to be connected to his secondary interest in aliens and UFOs. Nolan worked to debunk the claims that. the Atacama skeleton was an alien and in fact published a paper with the DNA evidence showing it was just a deformed human infant.
He is honest that he believes in UFOs / Aliens but acknowledges that he doesn't have hard proof. Consider two of his other investigations. The Council Bluff's 1977 incident and the MRIs conducted on pilots who reported health conditions after encountering UAPs.
The Council Bluffs incident as reported by the local historical society. Here is his paper on the subject with the title: Improved instrumental techniques, including isotopic analysis, applicable to the characterization of unusual materials with potential relevance to aerospace forensics.
Let's look skeptically at this paragraph in the paper.
Yet the paper never discusses this. Instead it talks about 3 hypotheses: satellite debris, meteoric impact, aircraft debris, or a hoax; dismissing each in turn. The paper then discusses ways to analyze the metal properties and describes certain characteristics as anomalous including certain isotope ratios in the the metal. The isotope finding is actually not that unusual. In fact a byproduct of modern steel making is that the various isotopes floating around in the atmosphere from our legacy of above ground nuclear testing has made steel manufactured before the atomic age increasingly valuable for certain equipment like MRIs.
The paper finishes with this note that actually would suggest a foundry accident.
posted by interogative mood at 10:56 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
He is honest that he believes in UFOs / Aliens but acknowledges that he doesn't have hard proof. Consider two of his other investigations. The Council Bluff's 1977 incident and the MRIs conducted on pilots who reported health conditions after encountering UAPs.
The Council Bluffs incident as reported by the local historical society. Here is his paper on the subject with the title: Improved instrumental techniques, including isotopic analysis, applicable to the characterization of unusual materials with potential relevance to aerospace forensics.
Let's look skeptically at this paragraph in the paper.
Both agreed with the determination that the material was a metallic alloy, chiefly iron with small amounts of nickel and chromium. The report indicated that the micro-structure suggested the studied sample was carbon steel that was cast, subsequently re- heated to about 1000 degrees and cooled at an intermediate rate, so that it resembled wrought iron [31] (wrought iron is an alloy containing low carbon content in the 0.08% or less level). No pictures of the ‘microstructure’ were provided in the historical report. The problem with that determination was that nothing accounted for the way a large amount of that very heavy and extremely hot material could have been deposited in that area in a molten state, following the clear observation of a luminous object in the sky, (the purported source of the material,) which remained unidentified.No explanation? The historical society notes that there were two foundries operating in the area who were working with the kind of high carbon steel that would be precursor of the slag identified. As to how the slag got there the answer is fairly simple if you've ever worked at a foundry -- the short version is someone really fucked up. When pouring metal into a container it is very important that your container doesn't have a puddle of water in the bottom. Otherwise what happens is the metal solidifies on contact with the water, flashes the water to steam and then shoots the molten material skyward at an impressive velocity. That is a very common accident. Here is a small scale accident at a home foundry. Another common incident is someone adds wet metal to the crucible when melting the material down.
Yet the paper never discusses this. Instead it talks about 3 hypotheses: satellite debris, meteoric impact, aircraft debris, or a hoax; dismissing each in turn. The paper then discusses ways to analyze the metal properties and describes certain characteristics as anomalous including certain isotope ratios in the the metal. The isotope finding is actually not that unusual. In fact a byproduct of modern steel making is that the various isotopes floating around in the atmosphere from our legacy of above ground nuclear testing has made steel manufactured before the atomic age increasingly valuable for certain equipment like MRIs.
The paper finishes with this note that actually would suggest a foundry accident.
Because of the clarity, abundance and timeliness of the testimony, and the open attitude of local police and fire investigators in the Council Bluffs case, we were able to investigate the event with a high degree of certainty as to chain of custody around the material obtained. While this study verified the prior findings in terms of elemental composition and “natural” isotope content, we additionally found that there was local homogeneity of the samples to the degree measured, but considerable diversity in the elemental ratios across the subsamples. This implies that whatever the sample’s origins, it was incompletely mixed at the time of deposition.Melting down scrap metal when there is a steam explosion will explain the incomplete mixing with some local homogeneity. This is why true believers need to be extra careful when doing research on this regardless of their scientific credentials.
posted by interogative mood at 10:56 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
MRIs conducted on pilots who reported health conditions after encountering UAPs
Did Havana Syndrome just enter the chat?
posted by Artw at 11:03 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Did Havana Syndrome just enter the chat?
posted by Artw at 11:03 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Pilots Are Seeing Some Very Strange Things In Arizona’s Military Training Ranges
the drive has been persistently covering these kinds of encounters for a few years (e.g. oregon, new mexico, other reports to the faa re uaps).
[Nolan] is honest that he believes in UFOs / Aliens but acknowledges that he doesn't have hard proof. Consider two of his other investigations. The Council Bluff's 1977 incident and the MRIs conducted on pilots who reported health conditions after encountering UAPs.
a bit more detail on his mri work here (artw, you'll be excited to hear havana syndrome is mentioned! albeit as a reason why he apparently got locked out of further work on this).
posted by inire at 11:07 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
the drive has been persistently covering these kinds of encounters for a few years (e.g. oregon, new mexico, other reports to the faa re uaps).
[Nolan] is honest that he believes in UFOs / Aliens but acknowledges that he doesn't have hard proof. Consider two of his other investigations. The Council Bluff's 1977 incident and the MRIs conducted on pilots who reported health conditions after encountering UAPs.
a bit more detail on his mri work here (artw, you'll be excited to hear havana syndrome is mentioned! albeit as a reason why he apparently got locked out of further work on this).
posted by inire at 11:07 AM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
I absolutely would expect all spooky-woo of dubious existence to cross over.
posted by Artw at 11:11 AM on August 3, 2023
posted by Artw at 11:11 AM on August 3, 2023
inire extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
I have no doubt at all that people have seen things they can't explain.
I don't see how jumping from that to "sentient aliens have traveled across the gulf of space to our solar system then crashed/buzzed rednecks/tried to hide but failed/abducted people/etc is even remotely reasonable.
It is on the people making a claim to provide evidence for that claim.
See how this looks a LOT like the way God believers argue? Minor unexplained observation is reported and they jump instantly to claiming it means their God is real.
I see no excuse at all to jump from person X claiming to have seen a light in the sky to therefore aliens.
Anyone who does wish to make that leap needs some really impressive evidence to justify their claim. But they don't. Instead they say people who disagree are the **REAL** faithful and it takes more faith to disbelieve in X than to think it's true.
Another point of similiarity is that religion and all the conspiracy theories including UFO's have a large number of blatant frauds and charlitans milking suckers for money and no one seems to ever concede that this presents a credibility problem.
Show me real, empirical, solid, positive evidence for the UFO/Flat Earth/God position and I'll change my mind.
Show me blurry pictures, reports from eyewittnesses, and a lot of speculation and yes I'll be derisive, snide, and mocking. Such positions need to be firmly crushed or else you wind up with religions and Qanon. If we stomp on it while it's small, maybe we can wipe it out before it becomes big and dangerous.
We already lost that fight against religion, now one of the most dangerous conspiracy lies on the planet.
We lost it against Qanon and it gave us Trump and the rest of the modern right wing.
So far Flat Earthism and UFO's haven't grown powerful enough to start building up the inevitble body count that all conspiracy thinking results in thanks in large part to people mocking the everloving fuck out of the true believers.
That's not meanspirited, that's self defense.
posted by sotonohito at 11:21 AM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
I have no doubt at all that people have seen things they can't explain.
I don't see how jumping from that to "sentient aliens have traveled across the gulf of space to our solar system then crashed/buzzed rednecks/tried to hide but failed/abducted people/etc is even remotely reasonable.
It is on the people making a claim to provide evidence for that claim.
See how this looks a LOT like the way God believers argue? Minor unexplained observation is reported and they jump instantly to claiming it means their God is real.
I see no excuse at all to jump from person X claiming to have seen a light in the sky to therefore aliens.
Anyone who does wish to make that leap needs some really impressive evidence to justify their claim. But they don't. Instead they say people who disagree are the **REAL** faithful and it takes more faith to disbelieve in X than to think it's true.
Another point of similiarity is that religion and all the conspiracy theories including UFO's have a large number of blatant frauds and charlitans milking suckers for money and no one seems to ever concede that this presents a credibility problem.
Show me real, empirical, solid, positive evidence for the UFO/Flat Earth/God position and I'll change my mind.
Show me blurry pictures, reports from eyewittnesses, and a lot of speculation and yes I'll be derisive, snide, and mocking. Such positions need to be firmly crushed or else you wind up with religions and Qanon. If we stomp on it while it's small, maybe we can wipe it out before it becomes big and dangerous.
We already lost that fight against religion, now one of the most dangerous conspiracy lies on the planet.
We lost it against Qanon and it gave us Trump and the rest of the modern right wing.
So far Flat Earthism and UFO's haven't grown powerful enough to start building up the inevitble body count that all conspiracy thinking results in thanks in large part to people mocking the everloving fuck out of the true believers.
That's not meanspirited, that's self defense.
posted by sotonohito at 11:21 AM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
Mod note: Comments removed. Please remember to be be considerate and respectful to your fellow community members, per the Community Guidelines.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 12:14 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 12:14 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't see how jumping from that to "sentient aliens have traveled across the gulf of space to our solar system then crashed/buzzed rednecks/tried to hide but failed/abducted people/etc is even remotely reasonable.
i know, i just don't see people making that jump (or that claim) in the last several hundred comments of this thread, so arguing against it as if it's the position being maintained by the people you're disagreeing with seems misdirected.
Show me real, empirical, solid, positive evidence for the UFO/Flat Earth/God position and I'll change my mind.
Show me blurry pictures, reports from eyewittnesses, and a lot of speculation and yes I'll be derisive, snide, and mocking. Such positions need to be firmly crushed or else you wind up with religions and Qanon. If we stomp on it while it's small, maybe we can wipe it out before it becomes big and dangerous.
sticking with the ufo position for a moment, as the topic of this thread - how is this real, empirical, solid, positive evidence to be obtained if the preceding position that would prompt one to look for it (blurry pictures, speculation, second-hand testimony) is to be "firmly crushed"?
i mean, i get this reaction, emotionally, especially after the last half dozen years. but there are plenty of things that start out with speculation, second- or third-hand testimony, no tangible public evidence, etc. that then turn out (unexpectedly or otherwise) to be true. or false, it varies. sometimes they're good, or important, sometimes the opposite. the way you find out which of those is the case is by looking at it, with caution but without preconceptions (as far as possible). that's how you get the non-blurry pictures, the direct witness testimony, the grounding for speculation - if any exists.
the idea that things must be immediately evidenced to a high standard or else "firmly crushed" is a recipe for epistemic closure, and is an example of precisely the kind of equivalence with the 'true believer' position that i alluded to above. it seems to be shying away from any form of uncertainty - as if it is only acceptable to depart from a position of near-certainty if you're immediately moving to another position of near-certainty, without having to spend any appreciable time in the uncertain space in between.
it's also not a very scientific approach - some scientific discoveries are conclusive and immediately overturn conventional wisdom, sure, but plenty of scientific discoveries start with speculation or someone thinking 'that's weird...' and accumulate evidence bit by bit over time, spending a lot of time being very uncertain, but narrowing down the possibility space until you finally get to an answer.
kuhn's outline of the stages of a scientific paradigm shift is one well-known example - inexplicable anomalies accumulate until the current paradigm becomes insufficient, at which point people start striking out in 'extraordinary' directions. his original formulation goes a bit heavy on the 'crisis' aspect (sometimes the shift is more gradual) but i think it's still a useful model. of course not every anomaly remains inexplicable under the original paradigm, or leads to a paradigm shift, but you don't know until you look.
i don't blame people if they don't want to personally take this approach - sustained uncertainty is emotionally and intellectually draining, and plenty of people have enough upheaval to deal with already - but i do object to people asserting that it's an invalid or irrational approach or should be "crushed" at the outset.
posted by inire at 1:06 PM on August 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
i know, i just don't see people making that jump (or that claim) in the last several hundred comments of this thread, so arguing against it as if it's the position being maintained by the people you're disagreeing with seems misdirected.
Show me real, empirical, solid, positive evidence for the UFO/Flat Earth/God position and I'll change my mind.
Show me blurry pictures, reports from eyewittnesses, and a lot of speculation and yes I'll be derisive, snide, and mocking. Such positions need to be firmly crushed or else you wind up with religions and Qanon. If we stomp on it while it's small, maybe we can wipe it out before it becomes big and dangerous.
sticking with the ufo position for a moment, as the topic of this thread - how is this real, empirical, solid, positive evidence to be obtained if the preceding position that would prompt one to look for it (blurry pictures, speculation, second-hand testimony) is to be "firmly crushed"?
i mean, i get this reaction, emotionally, especially after the last half dozen years. but there are plenty of things that start out with speculation, second- or third-hand testimony, no tangible public evidence, etc. that then turn out (unexpectedly or otherwise) to be true. or false, it varies. sometimes they're good, or important, sometimes the opposite. the way you find out which of those is the case is by looking at it, with caution but without preconceptions (as far as possible). that's how you get the non-blurry pictures, the direct witness testimony, the grounding for speculation - if any exists.
the idea that things must be immediately evidenced to a high standard or else "firmly crushed" is a recipe for epistemic closure, and is an example of precisely the kind of equivalence with the 'true believer' position that i alluded to above. it seems to be shying away from any form of uncertainty - as if it is only acceptable to depart from a position of near-certainty if you're immediately moving to another position of near-certainty, without having to spend any appreciable time in the uncertain space in between.
it's also not a very scientific approach - some scientific discoveries are conclusive and immediately overturn conventional wisdom, sure, but plenty of scientific discoveries start with speculation or someone thinking 'that's weird...' and accumulate evidence bit by bit over time, spending a lot of time being very uncertain, but narrowing down the possibility space until you finally get to an answer.
kuhn's outline of the stages of a scientific paradigm shift is one well-known example - inexplicable anomalies accumulate until the current paradigm becomes insufficient, at which point people start striking out in 'extraordinary' directions. his original formulation goes a bit heavy on the 'crisis' aspect (sometimes the shift is more gradual) but i think it's still a useful model. of course not every anomaly remains inexplicable under the original paradigm, or leads to a paradigm shift, but you don't know until you look.
i don't blame people if they don't want to personally take this approach - sustained uncertainty is emotionally and intellectually draining, and plenty of people have enough upheaval to deal with already - but i do object to people asserting that it's an invalid or irrational approach or should be "crushed" at the outset.
posted by inire at 1:06 PM on August 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
Beginning with the least important point, you can't claim people are instantly dismissing the UFO conspiracy theory. The first recorded sighting in the 20th century was in 1907 and depending on how you want to count things sightings go as far back as Ezekiel and his famous wheel. I'm dismissing it after at least 100 years of people having an opportunity to find real evidence, and possibly after several thousand years of people having the opportunity to find real evidence.
But more important, this isn't like dismissing someone claiming to have developed cold fusion or anti-gravity or to have discovered a new planet or whatever.
The most important difference is the conspiracy thinking, and to me that's the part that moves it from the same total BS but largely harmless category as astrology and into the potential threat category.
Because UFO believers don't just ask us to agree that UFO's are actual alien spacecraft.
UFO believers ask us to agree that every single government on the planet is part of a vast conspiracy to suppress "the truth". Worse, it's a conspiracy about easily observable things so the conspiracy covers millions of people involved in a number of mundane jobs (air traffic controller, meterologist, astronomer, etc).
It's a conspiracy so vast and powerful and deep it must cost trillions to maintain, and as Grusch hinted at a number of assassins to kill potential leakers. And notice that we're already into "the evil conspiracy murders people" territory? Qanon and the Flat Earthers must be jealous, they never got to have some Very Serious Person up before Congress coyly hinting that the vast conspiracy they believe in is killing people to keep the secret.
To get back to somewhat lesser issues, the UFO conspiracy also differs from contentious issues in science in that there's a hobby industry involved in selling UFO conspiracy related stuff. I won't say it's total proof, but the presence of people selling merch to the true believers and getting paid to lecture about the conspiracy is a clear sign of a nascient religious level conspiracy taking root and growing.
But its the conspiracy, not the hucksters themselves, that's the important and threatening part.
Other discredited and mocked scientists looked harder for evidence.
When the UFO people failed to find real supporting evidence they very quickl jumped to conspiracy thinking. Rather than going the scientific route and noting that their theory lacks evidence and looking harder, the UFO believers decided the lack of evidence was proof that vast and powerful forces were conspiring against them.
So yes, I think I'm justified in concluding that UFO conspiracy thinking is dangerous and using the mighty power of mockery and derision to try to keep it from spreading.
They aren't silenced. They aren't imprisoned. They're mocked. Because their belief is dangerous and clearly BS. Nothing about mockery prevents them from continuing to look for real evidence but it might prevent them from producing mass shooters or becoming so orthodox that they acquire the power of the state to commit violence on their behalf.
TL;DR:
Its the conspiracy thinking, not the outlandishness of the claim, that makes me want to stamp it out.
posted by sotonohito at 2:37 PM on August 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
But more important, this isn't like dismissing someone claiming to have developed cold fusion or anti-gravity or to have discovered a new planet or whatever.
The most important difference is the conspiracy thinking, and to me that's the part that moves it from the same total BS but largely harmless category as astrology and into the potential threat category.
Because UFO believers don't just ask us to agree that UFO's are actual alien spacecraft.
UFO believers ask us to agree that every single government on the planet is part of a vast conspiracy to suppress "the truth". Worse, it's a conspiracy about easily observable things so the conspiracy covers millions of people involved in a number of mundane jobs (air traffic controller, meterologist, astronomer, etc).
It's a conspiracy so vast and powerful and deep it must cost trillions to maintain, and as Grusch hinted at a number of assassins to kill potential leakers. And notice that we're already into "the evil conspiracy murders people" territory? Qanon and the Flat Earthers must be jealous, they never got to have some Very Serious Person up before Congress coyly hinting that the vast conspiracy they believe in is killing people to keep the secret.
To get back to somewhat lesser issues, the UFO conspiracy also differs from contentious issues in science in that there's a hobby industry involved in selling UFO conspiracy related stuff. I won't say it's total proof, but the presence of people selling merch to the true believers and getting paid to lecture about the conspiracy is a clear sign of a nascient religious level conspiracy taking root and growing.
But its the conspiracy, not the hucksters themselves, that's the important and threatening part.
Other discredited and mocked scientists looked harder for evidence.
When the UFO people failed to find real supporting evidence they very quickl jumped to conspiracy thinking. Rather than going the scientific route and noting that their theory lacks evidence and looking harder, the UFO believers decided the lack of evidence was proof that vast and powerful forces were conspiring against them.
So yes, I think I'm justified in concluding that UFO conspiracy thinking is dangerous and using the mighty power of mockery and derision to try to keep it from spreading.
They aren't silenced. They aren't imprisoned. They're mocked. Because their belief is dangerous and clearly BS. Nothing about mockery prevents them from continuing to look for real evidence but it might prevent them from producing mass shooters or becoming so orthodox that they acquire the power of the state to commit violence on their behalf.
TL;DR:
Its the conspiracy thinking, not the outlandishness of the claim, that makes me want to stamp it out.
posted by sotonohito at 2:37 PM on August 3, 2023 [4 favorites]
"That's weird" and "that's unexpected" should come from some kind of experimental result or a clear observation of the natural world. Not just some event with a number of perfectly plausible natural explanations and no ability based on the evidence available to rule those out.
For example we had a model of gravity that predicted the orbits of planets going back to Newton. Then our observations of Mercury predicted another planet or object must be interfering with its orbit, but we couldn't find "Vulcan". Eventually Einstein provided a solution to the problem based on special relativity. Then lots of experiments were done that reported data that matched the expected output based on his theory. That's science.
Prior to Einstein's work lots of scientists were attempting to find Vulcan and anyone with the ability to observe the transit of Mercury across the sun could see that its predicted path did not match the predictions of Newton without the presence of another object. Then you had years and years of null results in the search for the hypothetical planet Vulcan. Then on top of that you had experimental confirmation and other evidence provided around special relativity by multiple independent scientists over decades.
Contrast this with the claims of "aliens". You have observations and sensor data that seems anomalous, but in every case it seems that there are possible explanations from natural phenomena. With UAP sightings there isn't a "we couldn't find Vulcan" problem. Also Einstein didn't throw out all of Newton, he built on top of Newton. The UAP folks want us to accept their alien suggestion without any confirming evidence and in fact other observational reports tend to discount the sensor data. If there is a lack of expected confirming data then they suggest we should throw out physics. For example an object moving at hypersonic speed should have a heat signature and it should cause sonic booms and we should see other atmospheric impacts. Yet we don't see those in these reports. The "its aliens" folks dismiss this as well obviously the aliens have figured out how to do this, but isn't a more likely explanation observer error?
posted by interogative mood at 2:40 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
For example we had a model of gravity that predicted the orbits of planets going back to Newton. Then our observations of Mercury predicted another planet or object must be interfering with its orbit, but we couldn't find "Vulcan". Eventually Einstein provided a solution to the problem based on special relativity. Then lots of experiments were done that reported data that matched the expected output based on his theory. That's science.
Prior to Einstein's work lots of scientists were attempting to find Vulcan and anyone with the ability to observe the transit of Mercury across the sun could see that its predicted path did not match the predictions of Newton without the presence of another object. Then you had years and years of null results in the search for the hypothetical planet Vulcan. Then on top of that you had experimental confirmation and other evidence provided around special relativity by multiple independent scientists over decades.
Contrast this with the claims of "aliens". You have observations and sensor data that seems anomalous, but in every case it seems that there are possible explanations from natural phenomena. With UAP sightings there isn't a "we couldn't find Vulcan" problem. Also Einstein didn't throw out all of Newton, he built on top of Newton. The UAP folks want us to accept their alien suggestion without any confirming evidence and in fact other observational reports tend to discount the sensor data. If there is a lack of expected confirming data then they suggest we should throw out physics. For example an object moving at hypersonic speed should have a heat signature and it should cause sonic booms and we should see other atmospheric impacts. Yet we don't see those in these reports. The "its aliens" folks dismiss this as well obviously the aliens have figured out how to do this, but isn't a more likely explanation observer error?
posted by interogative mood at 2:40 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Qanon...must be jealous, they never got to have some Very Serious Person up before Congress coyly hinting that the vast conspiracy they believe in is killing people to keep the secret.
Except for the ones in Congress.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:41 PM on August 3, 2023 [3 favorites]
Except for the ones in Congress.
posted by snuffleupagus at 2:41 PM on August 3, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don't see how jumping from that to "sentient aliens have traveled across the gulf of space to our solar system then crashed/buzzed rednecks/tried to hide but failed/abducted people/etc is even remotely reasonable.
Inire: know, i just don't see people making that jump (or that claim) in the last several hundred comments of this thread, so arguing against it as if it's the position being maintained by the people you're disagreeing with seems misdirected.
Indeed. The arguing with no one here.
Mockery is a weak look, imo.
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:04 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Inire: know, i just don't see people making that jump (or that claim) in the last several hundred comments of this thread, so arguing against it as if it's the position being maintained by the people you're disagreeing with seems misdirected.
Indeed. The arguing with no one here.
Mockery is a weak look, imo.
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:04 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
For example an object moving at hypersonic speed should have a heat signature and it should cause sonic booms and we should see other atmospheric impacts. Yet we don't see those in these reports.
Throwing things at the wall to see what sticks, are we? Except insofar as heat signatures and sonic booms are concerned, we actually don't need to see them in any report to know better. As the notes in this FLIR video says at 1:05 objects that are hot present as black in white display and as white in black display. The video is in black display. The gimbal is white. The gimbal is hot. As for being able to hear sonic booms in a fighter jet at oh please
posted by y2karl at 4:06 PM on August 3, 2023
Throwing things at the wall to see what sticks, are we? Except insofar as heat signatures and sonic booms are concerned, we actually don't need to see them in any report to know better. As the notes in this FLIR video says at 1:05 objects that are hot present as black in white display and as white in black display. The video is in black display. The gimbal is white. The gimbal is hot. As for being able to hear sonic booms in a fighter jet at oh please
posted by y2karl at 4:06 PM on August 3, 2023
To be honest, as to whether a pilot in a jet can hear a sonic boom of another plane or missile, perhaps so. But if this report you mention is the unclassified handful of pages prefacing an otherwise classified report to which I linked earlier, well, there you go. The more inside is above our clearance level. It may be in there but we know not together.
posted by y2karl at 4:30 PM on August 3, 2023
posted by y2karl at 4:30 PM on August 3, 2023
A bird will also show up as “hot” in those camera system. The gradient they use operates across a narrower temperature band in order to provide contrast of visual utility to the end user and show terrain, clouds, etc. It is not a gradient that represents 0 kelvin at one end (white or black) and the opposite at 1 million.
The shockwave of a sonic boom will be experienced by pilots as a jolt of turbulence, they might not hear it; but they would feel it.
posted by interogative mood at 4:50 PM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
The shockwave of a sonic boom will be experienced by pilots as a jolt of turbulence, they might not hear it; but they would feel it.
posted by interogative mood at 4:50 PM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
Yeah, basically think of hot and cold as light and dark in a visible light camera, and think "auto-exposure". The darkest black and brightest white are just the extremes of temperature in frame at that moment. You can see the clouds have light and dark definition and those wouldn't have huge temperature gradients.
posted by jason_steakums at 5:06 PM on August 3, 2023
posted by jason_steakums at 5:06 PM on August 3, 2023
Mod note: Reminder to comment in a manner that maintains consideration and respect for other users in this thread. Be aware of the space that you take up. See our Guidelines for a refresher.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 7:10 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 7:10 PM on August 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
The gimbal is white. The gimbal is hot.
No, the object being tracked by the gimbal-mounted FLIR camera is hot. So hot, in fact, that it's causing flare on the camera's sensor. Which means it's most likely to be the exhaust plume of a jet engine viewed from almost directly behind.
The weird shape and apparent rotation are both completely consistent with the ways in which IR camera sensors and gimbal tracking mounts work.
Most of us don't know how IR camera sensors or gimbal tracking mounts work, which leaves us susceptible to suggestions that the shape seen on that IR footage is the actual shape of an object being photographed, and that the mysterious rotation seen on the footage is how that object is actually behaving.
Fortunately this is 2023 and we have the Internet now. So instead of jumping on the OMG It's Aliens train like 99% of the YouTube comments attached to that video, we could just go and find out how that shit works, if we want. And despite the snark-cannons-blazing reference upthread to IJustGoogledThisOutofMyAss University, you don't actually need a postgraduate degree in military thermal imaging technology to wrap your head around this.
All you need is two key understandings: firstly that sensor flare happens as a result of local overloading inside a camera's sensor chip, meaning that the apparent shape of any flare depends on the camera's orientation; and secondly that those cameras are in tracking mounts that rotate them as an unavoidable byproduct of pointing them at things.
That second point means that the view captured by the camera will usually be at some weird angle with respect to the plane and in need of de-rotation post-processing to present the pilot with a view that isn't. The weird angle is set by the geometry of the mount and completely predictable, so the post-processing is easy, but because it's applied to the signal coming off the camera and not as mechanical counter-rotation of the camera itself, any artifacts generated inside the camera such as stuck pixels or sensor flare are going to end up with apparent motions because of it.
And once you understand that you can and should discount both the weird apparent shape and the weird apparent rotation of whatever is being tracked, and instead interpret both of those anomalies as evidence that it's something particularly hot - like, say, the arse end of a distant jet engine - then you're in a good place to work out how far away that engine would have to be in order for its flight track to be consistent with what you're seeing. And again, this is 2023 and we have the Internet now, which means that somebody else has probably already published that exact analysis in obsessively excruciating detail and made it easy to find.
I can't work out which I find more hilarious: is it how the Highly Trained Observers on that plane demonstrate a worse understanding of sensor flare and de-rotation than I got myself from fifteen minutes attending Remedial ATFLIR at IJustGoogledThisOutofMyAss U, or is it the eagerness of so many worshipful rubes to treat those same people as infallible interpreters of reality?
posted by flabdablet at 10:24 PM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
No, the object being tracked by the gimbal-mounted FLIR camera is hot. So hot, in fact, that it's causing flare on the camera's sensor. Which means it's most likely to be the exhaust plume of a jet engine viewed from almost directly behind.
The weird shape and apparent rotation are both completely consistent with the ways in which IR camera sensors and gimbal tracking mounts work.
Most of us don't know how IR camera sensors or gimbal tracking mounts work, which leaves us susceptible to suggestions that the shape seen on that IR footage is the actual shape of an object being photographed, and that the mysterious rotation seen on the footage is how that object is actually behaving.
Fortunately this is 2023 and we have the Internet now. So instead of jumping on the OMG It's Aliens train like 99% of the YouTube comments attached to that video, we could just go and find out how that shit works, if we want. And despite the snark-cannons-blazing reference upthread to IJustGoogledThisOutofMyAss University, you don't actually need a postgraduate degree in military thermal imaging technology to wrap your head around this.
All you need is two key understandings: firstly that sensor flare happens as a result of local overloading inside a camera's sensor chip, meaning that the apparent shape of any flare depends on the camera's orientation; and secondly that those cameras are in tracking mounts that rotate them as an unavoidable byproduct of pointing them at things.
That second point means that the view captured by the camera will usually be at some weird angle with respect to the plane and in need of de-rotation post-processing to present the pilot with a view that isn't. The weird angle is set by the geometry of the mount and completely predictable, so the post-processing is easy, but because it's applied to the signal coming off the camera and not as mechanical counter-rotation of the camera itself, any artifacts generated inside the camera such as stuck pixels or sensor flare are going to end up with apparent motions because of it.
And once you understand that you can and should discount both the weird apparent shape and the weird apparent rotation of whatever is being tracked, and instead interpret both of those anomalies as evidence that it's something particularly hot - like, say, the arse end of a distant jet engine - then you're in a good place to work out how far away that engine would have to be in order for its flight track to be consistent with what you're seeing. And again, this is 2023 and we have the Internet now, which means that somebody else has probably already published that exact analysis in obsessively excruciating detail and made it easy to find.
I can't work out which I find more hilarious: is it how the Highly Trained Observers on that plane demonstrate a worse understanding of sensor flare and de-rotation than I got myself from fifteen minutes attending Remedial ATFLIR at IJustGoogledThisOutofMyAss U, or is it the eagerness of so many worshipful rubes to treat those same people as infallible interpreters of reality?
posted by flabdablet at 10:24 PM on August 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
Beginning with the least important point, you can't claim people are instantly dismissing the UFO conspiracy theory.
i can (and do) claim that, because i’m referring to instant dismissal, crushing, etc. in the context of the current discussion, not in terms of the historical context covering however many centuries.
The most important difference is the conspiracy thinking, and to me that's the part that moves it from the same total BS but largely harmless category as astrology and into the potential threat category.
Because UFO believers don't just ask us to agree that UFO's are actual alien spacecraft. UFO believers ask us to agree that every single government on the planet is part of a vast conspiracy to suppress "the truth". Worse, it's a conspiracy about easily observable things so the conspiracy covers millions of people involved in a number of mundane jobs
i don’t doubt that some true believers posit that every single government is aware of ‘the truth’ and involved in a vast conspiracy to suppress it, together with millions of ordinary people. you can find someone who believes pretty much any claim, regardless of how implausible or logically incoherent it is, if you look hard enough.
but i can't see any such conspiracy being argued in this thread, and it’s inaccurate to say that ‘ufo believers’ as a whole are arguing for the conspiracy you describe. (this is another example of an equivalence with the ‘true believer’ position, by the way – inaccurately or incompletely characterising one’s opponents as only holding views that can be easily undermined, or only engaging with those opponents who genuinely express such views, and not engaging with the stronger opposing arguments.)
the argument generally made by believers is not that millions of ordinary people and every single government in the world are conspiring to cover this up – it's that some elements of the us government are conspiring to cover this up, in coordination with some elements of at least a handful of other governments (the non-exhaustive list is usually the five eyes, russia and china). the millions of ordinary people you mention are overwhelmingly not said to be involved in or aware of the conspiracy – some of them will occasionally see some weird shit, and either dismiss it as likely having a mundane explanation, report it to some other authority (which may log it, like the faa, or do nothing about it), or at most think they might have seen a ufo but then say little about that publicly. the people who are said to be participating in the conspiracy are generally described as either being unaware of the nature of what they’re doing – e.g., the military truck driver who transports a high-security container to an air force base, unaware that it contains ufo wreckage – or to the extent they are aware, are few in number and subject to extreme levels of secrecy enforced via whatever means are deemed necessary.
given that there is a long and storied history of governments (or elements thereof) covering things up, sometimes incompetently and sometimes very successfully, it’s not necessarily problematic (or even implausible) to argue that there is a conspiracy. conspiracy theories are not inherently invalid merely by virtue of being theories about conspiracies. they’re inherently invalid if (as is often the case) they’re logically incoherent, or require people to act in absurd ways, or require logistically implausible levels of coordination between millions of people, or were demonstrably adopted for ulterior motives. a theory that isn’t inherently invalid can still be deemed to be false (or at least highly unlikely), depending on the amount of evidence to support it vs. the amount of evidence to support alternative non-conspiratorial explanations, but that depends in part on the availability of evidence. on which point:
Other discredited and mocked scientists looked harder for evidence. When the UFO people failed to find real supporting evidence they very quickl jumped to conspiracy thinking. Rather than going the scientific route and noting that their theory lacks evidence and looking harder, the UFO believers decided the lack of evidence was proof that vast and powerful forces were conspiring against them. […] Nothing about mockery prevents them from continuing to look for real evidence
there’s an important distinction here. scientists are not in principle constrained from looking for evidence to support a theory. in practice they may have limited time, funding, personnel, etc. - but in principle, if the supporting evidence exists, they can find it by looking harder, running more experiments, getting more data, etc.
the situation with ‘real supporting evidence’ for uaps - physical evidence, genuine documentation, high-quality sensor data, corroborating direct testimony, etc. - is very different. publicly available evidence is often low quality, whether because it's limited to eyewitness testimony or because publicly available sensors (e.g. iphone cameras) can't give adequate detail of the kind of distant sightings that seem to be most prevalent.
it is apparent that there is information relating to uaps that isn’t available to the public; not because of ‘mockery’, but because it’s classified. that information is likely to include material that is substantially higher-quality than anything available to the public (because it’s correlating satellite and other high-quality multi-sensor data, or draws on classified material for additional corroborating details, or pulls data from a far larger number of reports than have been made public). that information may or may not contain ‘real supporting evidence’ for uaps, but either way it isn’t accessible to anyone without the appropriate clearance, and ordinary uap believers can’t get to it by just ‘looking harder’, unless someone’s willing to break the law and face the consequences. you might have expected people who do have access to classified information to be able to ‘look harder’, but the allegation is that that’s not the case.
the point of schumer’s amendment and the rest of what’s going on in congress is, in part, to enable people – both those with the appropriate clearances and, to a more limited degree, the rest of us - to ‘look harder’ by ensuring that they have better access to the full range of information relating to uaps. in other words, it’s seeking to enable precisely the kind of scientific approach you want, by allowing access to relevant data that could support or undermine the various theories that have been offered about uaps.
ironically, this means that those who oppose the investigations and schumer’s amendment are (in practice) advocating for data to be withheld, creating a cover-up where (in their view) none currently exists.
posted by inire at 7:39 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
i can (and do) claim that, because i’m referring to instant dismissal, crushing, etc. in the context of the current discussion, not in terms of the historical context covering however many centuries.
The most important difference is the conspiracy thinking, and to me that's the part that moves it from the same total BS but largely harmless category as astrology and into the potential threat category.
Because UFO believers don't just ask us to agree that UFO's are actual alien spacecraft. UFO believers ask us to agree that every single government on the planet is part of a vast conspiracy to suppress "the truth". Worse, it's a conspiracy about easily observable things so the conspiracy covers millions of people involved in a number of mundane jobs
i don’t doubt that some true believers posit that every single government is aware of ‘the truth’ and involved in a vast conspiracy to suppress it, together with millions of ordinary people. you can find someone who believes pretty much any claim, regardless of how implausible or logically incoherent it is, if you look hard enough.
but i can't see any such conspiracy being argued in this thread, and it’s inaccurate to say that ‘ufo believers’ as a whole are arguing for the conspiracy you describe. (this is another example of an equivalence with the ‘true believer’ position, by the way – inaccurately or incompletely characterising one’s opponents as only holding views that can be easily undermined, or only engaging with those opponents who genuinely express such views, and not engaging with the stronger opposing arguments.)
the argument generally made by believers is not that millions of ordinary people and every single government in the world are conspiring to cover this up – it's that some elements of the us government are conspiring to cover this up, in coordination with some elements of at least a handful of other governments (the non-exhaustive list is usually the five eyes, russia and china). the millions of ordinary people you mention are overwhelmingly not said to be involved in or aware of the conspiracy – some of them will occasionally see some weird shit, and either dismiss it as likely having a mundane explanation, report it to some other authority (which may log it, like the faa, or do nothing about it), or at most think they might have seen a ufo but then say little about that publicly. the people who are said to be participating in the conspiracy are generally described as either being unaware of the nature of what they’re doing – e.g., the military truck driver who transports a high-security container to an air force base, unaware that it contains ufo wreckage – or to the extent they are aware, are few in number and subject to extreme levels of secrecy enforced via whatever means are deemed necessary.
given that there is a long and storied history of governments (or elements thereof) covering things up, sometimes incompetently and sometimes very successfully, it’s not necessarily problematic (or even implausible) to argue that there is a conspiracy. conspiracy theories are not inherently invalid merely by virtue of being theories about conspiracies. they’re inherently invalid if (as is often the case) they’re logically incoherent, or require people to act in absurd ways, or require logistically implausible levels of coordination between millions of people, or were demonstrably adopted for ulterior motives. a theory that isn’t inherently invalid can still be deemed to be false (or at least highly unlikely), depending on the amount of evidence to support it vs. the amount of evidence to support alternative non-conspiratorial explanations, but that depends in part on the availability of evidence. on which point:
Other discredited and mocked scientists looked harder for evidence. When the UFO people failed to find real supporting evidence they very quickl jumped to conspiracy thinking. Rather than going the scientific route and noting that their theory lacks evidence and looking harder, the UFO believers decided the lack of evidence was proof that vast and powerful forces were conspiring against them. […] Nothing about mockery prevents them from continuing to look for real evidence
there’s an important distinction here. scientists are not in principle constrained from looking for evidence to support a theory. in practice they may have limited time, funding, personnel, etc. - but in principle, if the supporting evidence exists, they can find it by looking harder, running more experiments, getting more data, etc.
the situation with ‘real supporting evidence’ for uaps - physical evidence, genuine documentation, high-quality sensor data, corroborating direct testimony, etc. - is very different. publicly available evidence is often low quality, whether because it's limited to eyewitness testimony or because publicly available sensors (e.g. iphone cameras) can't give adequate detail of the kind of distant sightings that seem to be most prevalent.
it is apparent that there is information relating to uaps that isn’t available to the public; not because of ‘mockery’, but because it’s classified. that information is likely to include material that is substantially higher-quality than anything available to the public (because it’s correlating satellite and other high-quality multi-sensor data, or draws on classified material for additional corroborating details, or pulls data from a far larger number of reports than have been made public). that information may or may not contain ‘real supporting evidence’ for uaps, but either way it isn’t accessible to anyone without the appropriate clearance, and ordinary uap believers can’t get to it by just ‘looking harder’, unless someone’s willing to break the law and face the consequences. you might have expected people who do have access to classified information to be able to ‘look harder’, but the allegation is that that’s not the case.
the point of schumer’s amendment and the rest of what’s going on in congress is, in part, to enable people – both those with the appropriate clearances and, to a more limited degree, the rest of us - to ‘look harder’ by ensuring that they have better access to the full range of information relating to uaps. in other words, it’s seeking to enable precisely the kind of scientific approach you want, by allowing access to relevant data that could support or undermine the various theories that have been offered about uaps.
ironically, this means that those who oppose the investigations and schumer’s amendment are (in practice) advocating for data to be withheld, creating a cover-up where (in their view) none currently exists.
posted by inire at 7:39 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not giving time and resources to obvious grifters does not constitute a secret government conspiracy.
posted by Artw at 8:00 AM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:00 AM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
Not giving time and resources to obvious grifters does not constitute a secret government conspiracy.
and yet advocating for an outcome that would result in data being withheld (and therefore unavailable for scientific analysis) does, in practice, have the same effect.
(also, does 'obvious grifters' here include schumer, gillibrand and aoc, all of whom are currently making time and resource demands of congress and government agencies? does it also include scientists who would like the government to devote some resources to providing fuller access to uap data in order to confirm or undermine the various hypotheses offered? just to be clear who we're talking about.)
posted by inire at 8:13 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
and yet advocating for an outcome that would result in data being withheld (and therefore unavailable for scientific analysis) does, in practice, have the same effect.
(also, does 'obvious grifters' here include schumer, gillibrand and aoc, all of whom are currently making time and resource demands of congress and government agencies? does it also include scientists who would like the government to devote some resources to providing fuller access to uap data in order to confirm or undermine the various hypotheses offered? just to be clear who we're talking about.)
posted by inire at 8:13 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Feel free to assign “obvious grifter” and “dumb rube whose behaviour I am unimpressed with here” freely between the various players based on to what extent they are propagating the ludicrous UFO conspiracy narrative and to what extent they are just following along with their mouths open deeply impressed by all the evidence free nonsense. Some may play on both teams. It is possible I am more disappointed by some of them more than others.
posted by Artw at 8:24 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:24 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
ok, so that covers grusch and co, plus congress. which category would scientists interested in analysing currently classified data fall into?
posted by inire at 8:26 AM on August 4, 2023
posted by inire at 8:26 AM on August 4, 2023
I don't think anyone here is suggesting we shouldn't have investigations of UAP. Even if it is a sensor issue, or pilot error these are critical systems for providing pilots, aircrews and controllers with situational awareness --they need to improve. The time wasting comes from the energy chasing aliens and fringe/paranormal explanations over a more rigorous investigation of these reports and eliminating the root causes.
posted by interogative mood at 8:27 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:27 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Much of the hearing that was not focused on unsubstantiated tall tales was in fact focused on dissatisfaction with previous analysis of UAPs for not producing any fun wild conclusions and not funneling enough money to grifters such as Graves.
posted by Artw at 8:31 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 8:31 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
FWIW I would absolutely put MRI guy who moonlights in metallurgy in the category “grifter”.
posted by Artw at 8:43 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 8:43 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
FWIW I would absolutely put MRI guy who moonlights in metallurgy in the category “grifter”.
that's one scientist. thoughts on others? including those who don't believe in aliens but would like to see this data anyway?
I don't think anyone here is suggesting we shouldn't have investigations of UAP. Even if it is a sensor issue, or pilot error these are critical systems for providing pilots, aircrews and controllers with situational awareness --they need to improve. The time wasting comes from the energy chasing aliens and fringe/paranormal explanations over a more rigorous investigation of these reports and eliminating the root causes.
i think it's been repeatedly and clearly suggested that uaps are not worth investigating, whether in general or via the current investigations.
both in the comments i noted the last time someone made your point, as well as in the comments that view the members of congress pushing for disclosure of uap-related information (including aoc, who's not focused on the 'aliens!' claims at all) as "dumb rubes" and graves as a grifter, the characterisation of the committee hearing as “laundering nothing” and that “nothing of substance was raised” and of any further classified information being provided as a “clown show”, describing fravor and graves as "flir botherers" who are in it for the money, describing schumer’s actions as "borderline offensive" and "pushing forwards [harry reid’s] dumbest hobbyhorse", and mocking flir blobs as "totally an important thing".
this despite the fact that the current congressional investigations and schumer's amendment are seeking to bring as much uap-related information as possible to light. the fact that some of the people involved think that this information will include proof of aliens is irrelevant to what the investigations and amendments would do in practice - i.e., collate and disclose uap-related information so that it can be analysed. that analysis may show that there is a non-aliens explanation for the currently inexplicable cases and lots of people will be terribly disappointed.
but the common reaction to the investigations and amendment has very clearly not been 'this aliens stuff is stupid but let's see what information is disclosed, it's not going to show aliens but hopefully it helps us find out what's going on'. instead, we get assertions that this is all a waste of time and resources and should be dismissed, with those who think otherwise being grifters or fools.
if anyone other than yourself would like to acknowledge that the investigations and amendment aren't exactly as they would wish, but are nevertheless what we've got, and should be supported insofar as they're seeking disclosure of all uap-related information for analysis (while remaining at least somewhat skeptical of any claims that this must involve aliens)... i'm all ears.
posted by inire at 9:13 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
that's one scientist. thoughts on others? including those who don't believe in aliens but would like to see this data anyway?
I don't think anyone here is suggesting we shouldn't have investigations of UAP. Even if it is a sensor issue, or pilot error these are critical systems for providing pilots, aircrews and controllers with situational awareness --they need to improve. The time wasting comes from the energy chasing aliens and fringe/paranormal explanations over a more rigorous investigation of these reports and eliminating the root causes.
i think it's been repeatedly and clearly suggested that uaps are not worth investigating, whether in general or via the current investigations.
both in the comments i noted the last time someone made your point, as well as in the comments that view the members of congress pushing for disclosure of uap-related information (including aoc, who's not focused on the 'aliens!' claims at all) as "dumb rubes" and graves as a grifter, the characterisation of the committee hearing as “laundering nothing” and that “nothing of substance was raised” and of any further classified information being provided as a “clown show”, describing fravor and graves as "flir botherers" who are in it for the money, describing schumer’s actions as "borderline offensive" and "pushing forwards [harry reid’s] dumbest hobbyhorse", and mocking flir blobs as "totally an important thing".
this despite the fact that the current congressional investigations and schumer's amendment are seeking to bring as much uap-related information as possible to light. the fact that some of the people involved think that this information will include proof of aliens is irrelevant to what the investigations and amendments would do in practice - i.e., collate and disclose uap-related information so that it can be analysed. that analysis may show that there is a non-aliens explanation for the currently inexplicable cases and lots of people will be terribly disappointed.
but the common reaction to the investigations and amendment has very clearly not been 'this aliens stuff is stupid but let's see what information is disclosed, it's not going to show aliens but hopefully it helps us find out what's going on'. instead, we get assertions that this is all a waste of time and resources and should be dismissed, with those who think otherwise being grifters or fools.
if anyone other than yourself would like to acknowledge that the investigations and amendment aren't exactly as they would wish, but are nevertheless what we've got, and should be supported insofar as they're seeking disclosure of all uap-related information for analysis (while remaining at least somewhat skeptical of any claims that this must involve aliens)... i'm all ears.
posted by inire at 9:13 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
conspiracy theories are not inherently invalid merely by virtue of being theories about conspiracies. they’re inherently invalid if (as is often the case) they’re logically incoherent, or require people to act in absurd ways, or require logistically implausible levels of coordination between millions of people
I would quibble with using the "millions" from the comment you're responding to and setting the implausibility level there, I think it gets logistically implausible far before that point and that's one of the major sticking points for me on the conspiracy front. Similarly, the comment about it being "some elements of the us government are conspiring to cover this up, in coordination with some elements of at least a handful of other governments (the non-exhaustive list is usually the five eyes, russia and china)" - I don't think limiting it to that level instead of all governments appreciably lowers how implausible it would be to keep these secrets for this long.
This is part of why I lean towards thinking that if there's a conspiracy it's just a boring one where contractors and their enablers are spreading wild claims and threats to throw off people looking into boring old grifting, mismanagement and possibly straight up embezzlement of black budget funds that already have limited oversight.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:32 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
I would quibble with using the "millions" from the comment you're responding to and setting the implausibility level there, I think it gets logistically implausible far before that point and that's one of the major sticking points for me on the conspiracy front. Similarly, the comment about it being "some elements of the us government are conspiring to cover this up, in coordination with some elements of at least a handful of other governments (the non-exhaustive list is usually the five eyes, russia and china)" - I don't think limiting it to that level instead of all governments appreciably lowers how implausible it would be to keep these secrets for this long.
This is part of why I lean towards thinking that if there's a conspiracy it's just a boring one where contractors and their enablers are spreading wild claims and threats to throw off people looking into boring old grifting, mismanagement and possibly straight up embezzlement of black budget funds that already have limited oversight.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:32 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
I would quibble with using the "millions" from the comment you're responding to and setting the implausibility level there, I think it gets logistically implausible far before that point and that's one of the major sticking points for me on the conspiracy front.
yes, i don’t mean to suggest that a conspiracy can only be logistically implausible if it involves millions of people - just commenting on sotonohito’s particular example. although i do think a conspiracy involving all governments is much less implausible than one involving a handful of governments.
in practice, i think the point at which a conspiracy becomes logistically implausible to keep secret depends on a bunch of things besides total numbers involved, including what the conspiracy is seeking to do (eg keep one recovered craft secret vs secretly collect a crashed craft every few months for decades), how information is partitioned among those involved in the conspiracy (eg you know you’re analysing a sample of a highly unusual alloy but not that it comes from a crashed spaceship), and contextual factors that can help to discourage or discredit leaks (eg an environment of general dismissal of purported leaks that aren’t backed up with extensive evidence, which - if your information partitioning and security measures are on point - will be the majority).
broader point - i don’t think there are grounds to set the logistical implausibility threshold so low as to rule out all possible conspiracies re alien bodies, alien uaps, etc. - some would be plausibly sustainable for decades. you’d need to make certain assumptions that would narrow the possibility space, and the fact they’re plausible in principle doesn’t mean they’re real in practice, but ruling them all out a priori seems unjustified.
posted by inire at 10:47 AM on August 4, 2023
yes, i don’t mean to suggest that a conspiracy can only be logistically implausible if it involves millions of people - just commenting on sotonohito’s particular example. although i do think a conspiracy involving all governments is much less implausible than one involving a handful of governments.
in practice, i think the point at which a conspiracy becomes logistically implausible to keep secret depends on a bunch of things besides total numbers involved, including what the conspiracy is seeking to do (eg keep one recovered craft secret vs secretly collect a crashed craft every few months for decades), how information is partitioned among those involved in the conspiracy (eg you know you’re analysing a sample of a highly unusual alloy but not that it comes from a crashed spaceship), and contextual factors that can help to discourage or discredit leaks (eg an environment of general dismissal of purported leaks that aren’t backed up with extensive evidence, which - if your information partitioning and security measures are on point - will be the majority).
broader point - i don’t think there are grounds to set the logistical implausibility threshold so low as to rule out all possible conspiracies re alien bodies, alien uaps, etc. - some would be plausibly sustainable for decades. you’d need to make certain assumptions that would narrow the possibility space, and the fact they’re plausible in principle doesn’t mean they’re real in practice, but ruling them all out a priori seems unjustified.
posted by inire at 10:47 AM on August 4, 2023
So you say i think it's been repeatedly and clearly suggested that uaps are not worth investigating, whether in general or via the current investigations.
And then you say…
both in the comments i noted the last time someone made your point, as well as in the comments that view the members of congress pushing for disclosure of uap-related information (including aoc, who's not focused on the 'aliens!' claims at all) as "dumb rubes" and graves as a grifter, the characterisation of the committee hearing as “laundering nothing” and that “nothing of substance was raised” and of any further classified information being provided as a “clown show”, describing fravor and graves as "flir botherers" who are in it for the money, describing schumer’s actions as "borderline offensive" and "pushing forwards [harry reid’s] dumbest hobbyhorse", and mocking flir blobs as "totally an important thing".
Which is all stuff I’d stand by, this is a clown show, it is making massive claims without evidence, it is an attempt to launder that lack of evidence into fake evidence by saying “there was a hearing on it, it must be real”, it is something AOC should have known better than to have gone near etc…
Which is not the same as saying “UAPs should not be investigated” at all. Half of this shit is not even related to UAPs, it’s related to utterly bizarre claims by Grusch and others. Where it is related to UAPs it’s all about stacking the decks to reach outlandish conclusions.
I think we both know that’s not the same thing at all.
posted by Artw at 10:48 AM on August 4, 2023 [6 favorites]
And then you say…
both in the comments i noted the last time someone made your point, as well as in the comments that view the members of congress pushing for disclosure of uap-related information (including aoc, who's not focused on the 'aliens!' claims at all) as "dumb rubes" and graves as a grifter, the characterisation of the committee hearing as “laundering nothing” and that “nothing of substance was raised” and of any further classified information being provided as a “clown show”, describing fravor and graves as "flir botherers" who are in it for the money, describing schumer’s actions as "borderline offensive" and "pushing forwards [harry reid’s] dumbest hobbyhorse", and mocking flir blobs as "totally an important thing".
Which is all stuff I’d stand by, this is a clown show, it is making massive claims without evidence, it is an attempt to launder that lack of evidence into fake evidence by saying “there was a hearing on it, it must be real”, it is something AOC should have known better than to have gone near etc…
Which is not the same as saying “UAPs should not be investigated” at all. Half of this shit is not even related to UAPs, it’s related to utterly bizarre claims by Grusch and others. Where it is related to UAPs it’s all about stacking the decks to reach outlandish conclusions.
I think we both know that’s not the same thing at all.
posted by Artw at 10:48 AM on August 4, 2023 [6 favorites]
Which is not the same as saying “UAPs should not be investigated” at all. Half of this shit is not even related to UAPs, it’s related to utterly bizarre claims by Grusch and others. Where it is related to UAPs it’s all about stacking the decks to reach outlandish conclusions.
claims by grusch and others about uaps, yes. but regardless, pleased to hear you're open to uaps being investigated.
given that that requires ensuring that all uap-related information (and any tangible evidence, materials, etc.) held throughout the us government is collated and made available for analysis, is there anything in particular that you object to re (i) the text of schumer's amendment, which pursues precisely that goal, or (ii) aoc's stated intention to use the congressional hearings to dig into allegations of misconduct by defense contractors, without drawing any preemptive conclusions about what that relates to?
posted by inire at 11:11 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
claims by grusch and others about uaps, yes. but regardless, pleased to hear you're open to uaps being investigated.
given that that requires ensuring that all uap-related information (and any tangible evidence, materials, etc.) held throughout the us government is collated and made available for analysis, is there anything in particular that you object to re (i) the text of schumer's amendment, which pursues precisely that goal, or (ii) aoc's stated intention to use the congressional hearings to dig into allegations of misconduct by defense contractors, without drawing any preemptive conclusions about what that relates to?
posted by inire at 11:11 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is part of why I lean towards thinking that if there's a conspiracy it's just a boring one where contractors and their enablers are spreading wild claims and threats to throw off people looking into boring old grifting, mismanagement and possibly straight up embezzlement of black budget funds that already have limited oversight.
posted by jason_steakums
I definitely want that investigated.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:11 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by jason_steakums
I definitely want that investigated.
posted by tiny frying pan at 11:11 AM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
And again, this is 2023 and we have the Internet now, which means that somebody else has probably already published that exact analysis in obsessively excruciating detail and made it easy to find.
Wow, those Metabunk guys bring to mind Almost Live's High Fiven White Guys the way they keep telling each other what geniuses they are. They could get some sort of psychic carpal tunnel syndrome with that. All you two have to worry about is throwing your shoulders out when patting yourselves on the back doing the same.
posted by y2karl at 11:19 AM on August 4, 2023
Wow, those Metabunk guys bring to mind Almost Live's High Fiven White Guys the way they keep telling each other what geniuses they are. They could get some sort of psychic carpal tunnel syndrome with that. All you two have to worry about is throwing your shoulders out when patting yourselves on the back doing the same.
posted by y2karl at 11:19 AM on August 4, 2023
It should also be noted that as soon as UAV field brushed up against a real tangible problem in the form of the surveillance balloon we get ”We Have a Real UFO Problem. And It’s Not Balloons” from Graves, desperately steering the conversation back to supposed foo fighters and his own Americans for Safe Aerospace. These are not people you want anywhere near legitimate attempts to identify unidentified phenomena.
posted by Artw at 11:23 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 11:23 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's likely the AI x-risk trop, it's all some distraction that saves people from worrying about important stuff over which they've no real power. AOC probably enjoys the distraction too.
I'm amused by the UAP sightings maps which suggest only US and UK pilots see them.
As I noted above, there are good reasons aliens should not talk to us. Also, it's pretty hard to hide technology, like the intellectually poisoned nuclear plans the US leaked to Russia ended up helping Russia. At the same time, I'm cautiously optimistic that any species with the ability and will to cross the stars could keep the USA from understanding any really slippery parts of their technology.
Anyways I think someone important decided the accidental distraction serves a useful function.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:31 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm amused by the UAP sightings maps which suggest only US and UK pilots see them.
As I noted above, there are good reasons aliens should not talk to us. Also, it's pretty hard to hide technology, like the intellectually poisoned nuclear plans the US leaked to Russia ended up helping Russia. At the same time, I'm cautiously optimistic that any species with the ability and will to cross the stars could keep the USA from understanding any really slippery parts of their technology.
Anyways I think someone important decided the accidental distraction serves a useful function.
posted by jeffburdges at 11:31 AM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
From your link (emphasis mine):
...The decades-long saga of unidentified flying objects (UFOs) is barreling headlong toward one of two stunning conclusions.posted by y2karl at 12:22 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Either the U.S. government has mounted an extraordinary, decades-long coverup of UFO retrieval and reverse-engineering activities, or elements of the defense and intelligence establishment are engaging in a staggeringly brazen psychological disinformation campaign.
Either possibility would have profound implications for democracy, the role of government and perhaps also humanity’s place in the cosmos.
For these reasons, it is imperative that Congress and federal law enforcement agencies devote significant resources to investigating a series of remarkable UFO-related developments.
Importantly, a third explanation for recent events — that dozens of high-level, highly-cleared officials have come to believe enduring UFO myths, rumors and speculation as fact — appears increasingly unlikely.
That gave me a laugh too.
posted by Artw at 12:24 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 12:24 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Pentagon Has Never Passed An Audit. Some Senators Want To Change That
posted by jeffburdges at 12:35 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by jeffburdges at 12:35 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
i should add that while these questions were directed at artw, and i'd be happy to hear his responses, also happy to hear responses from anyone else who is open to uaps being investigated (while still being broadly skeptical of grusch et al).
I'm amused by the UAP sightings maps which suggest only US and UK pilots see them.
some of the particularly egregious ones are based on nuforc's data, which - as a us-based organisation - has received reports overwhelmingly from the us and other english-speaking countries, with a smattering from elsewhere.
posted by inire at 12:39 PM on August 4, 2023
I'm amused by the UAP sightings maps which suggest only US and UK pilots see them.
some of the particularly egregious ones are based on nuforc's data, which - as a us-based organisation - has received reports overwhelmingly from the us and other english-speaking countries, with a smattering from elsewhere.
posted by inire at 12:39 PM on August 4, 2023
I believe the hearings are actually a pretty strong indication of why the bill is a bad idea. I do not see anything of worth likely to come out of the resulting flow of bad faith bullshit.
posted by Artw at 1:09 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 1:09 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
From the same link:
“Most of these people,” Rubio continued, “have held very high clearances and high positions within our government. So, you ask yourself: ‘What incentive would so many people with that kind of qualification — these are serious people — have to come forward and make something up?’”
I still think, regardless of how many times one can use the word 'grift' in a single thread, that's an unanswered question.
posted by newdaddy at 1:27 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
“Most of these people,” Rubio continued, “have held very high clearances and high positions within our government. So, you ask yourself: ‘What incentive would so many people with that kind of qualification — these are serious people — have to come forward and make something up?’”
I still think, regardless of how many times one can use the word 'grift' in a single thread, that's an unanswered question.
posted by newdaddy at 1:27 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Schumer-Rounds Amendment was passed by the Senate at the end of July as part of the Senate version of the NDAA (section 1546). The House already passed their version of the bill back in early July (the same day Senators Schumer and Rounds announced their UAP amendment). Either it will be yeeted out of the bill during the Senate / House negotiations or it will end up in the final bill. I suspect it will remain because it has the backing of big names.
The hearing we saw last week had almost nothing to do with the NDAA and was just theater. The House Government Oversight committee isn't doing the markup of the NDAA or involved in reconciliation.
posted by interogative mood at 1:38 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
The hearing we saw last week had almost nothing to do with the NDAA and was just theater. The House Government Oversight committee isn't doing the markup of the NDAA or involved in reconciliation.
posted by interogative mood at 1:38 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
these are serious people
Anybody who would describe that aw-shucks fauxy down-home assclown Burchett as "serious people" is displaying the kind of terrible judgement that might end up leading them to entertain non-human intelligence as a contender for the correct explanation of any extant UAP report.
Wow, those Metabunk guys bring to mind Almost Live's High Fiven White Guys the way they keep telling each other what geniuses they are. They could get some sort of psychic carpal tunnel syndrome with that. All you two have to worry about is throwing your shoulders out when patting yourselves on the back doing the same.
my barely adequate psychic defences are crumbling
posted by flabdablet at 2:09 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Anybody who would describe that aw-shucks fauxy down-home assclown Burchett as "serious people" is displaying the kind of terrible judgement that might end up leading them to entertain non-human intelligence as a contender for the correct explanation of any extant UAP report.
Wow, those Metabunk guys bring to mind Almost Live's High Fiven White Guys the way they keep telling each other what geniuses they are. They could get some sort of psychic carpal tunnel syndrome with that. All you two have to worry about is throwing your shoulders out when patting yourselves on the back doing the same.
my barely adequate psychic defences are crumbling
posted by flabdablet at 2:09 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Anybody who would describe that aw-shucks fauxy down-home assclown Burchett as "serious people"
speaking of poor judgement, you seem to have misread the quote - rubio is referring to the people purporting to be first-hand witnesses who have come forward to congress, not to burchett. hope this helps.
posted by inire at 2:25 PM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
speaking of poor judgement, you seem to have misread the quote - rubio is referring to the people purporting to be first-hand witnesses who have come forward to congress, not to burchett. hope this helps.
posted by inire at 2:25 PM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
The hearing we saw last week had almost nothing to do with the NDAA
accurate in the strictly causal sense, but inaccurate in the broader sense, as both the hearing and amendment stem from the same set of allegations, are both attacking the same issue in different ways, and are likely to be even more closely entwined in future (assuming that further hearings take place when / if the amendment comes into force). that broader linkage is reflected in artw's comment below:
I believe the hearings are actually a pretty strong indication of why the bill is a bad idea. I do not see anything of worth likely to come out of the resulting flow of bad faith bullshit.
have you read the amendment? genuine question.
broadly, it deals with government records relating to unidentified anomalous phenomena (uaps), programs re the collection, exploitation or reverse engineering of technologies of unknown origin (which is defined to cover materials associated with uaps or incorporating tech that isn’t in line with current manufacturing knowledge), biological evidence of non-human intelligence, and any associated programs.
uaps are specifically not defined as ‘alien spaceships’, but instead cover any object with performance characteristics and properties that go beyond what’s currently known to be achievable based on commonly acceptable physical principles. that covers any alien spaceships that might turn up, as well as any secret breakthrough human tech (domestic or foreign).
the amendment explicitly excludes records relating to ‘temporarily non-attributed objects’, basically meaning things that the initial observer couldn’t explain, but that are subsequently shown to have a prosaic explanation (i.e. not aliens, not human super-tech). presumably because, as far as i know, no-one's suggested that there is any issue getting access to those records.
so: if you think uaps should be rigorously investigated, that presumably requires gathering records of all uaps, not just the ones that you’re pretty sure will turn out to be balloons. in fact, you should arguably care a lot more about the ones that seem very unlikely to be balloons (or seagulls, or single-sensor artifacts, or swamp gas, or russia using drones to fuck with you) and that fit the amendment’s definition of ‘uap’, because even if you don't give a toss about aliens, if china has developed vehicles that can do things we don’t understand, that’s a big problem. but you're not confident that all of these records are available or easily obtainable just by having a member of congress ask nicely.
given that, what's the issue with the amendment in practice, for someone who apparently wants uaps to be investigated? is there some unidentified reason why the collation and review of previously undisclosed government records on uaps will constitute a "flow of bad faith bullshit", rather than more data that can be analysed? or any other reason to reject a process seeking disclosure of those records in favour (presumably) of some hypothetical more perfect future uap investigation that no-one has previously seen fit to pursue?
if you're twitchy about the fact that the amendment's also intended to capture records re alien bodies, well, either some such records will be disclosed (in which case we'll all have more interesting things to discuss) or they won't (in which case we can gloat at true believers or furiously theorise about cover-ups, depending on which of the two possible views we hold on this issue).
posted by inire at 2:49 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
accurate in the strictly causal sense, but inaccurate in the broader sense, as both the hearing and amendment stem from the same set of allegations, are both attacking the same issue in different ways, and are likely to be even more closely entwined in future (assuming that further hearings take place when / if the amendment comes into force). that broader linkage is reflected in artw's comment below:
I believe the hearings are actually a pretty strong indication of why the bill is a bad idea. I do not see anything of worth likely to come out of the resulting flow of bad faith bullshit.
have you read the amendment? genuine question.
broadly, it deals with government records relating to unidentified anomalous phenomena (uaps), programs re the collection, exploitation or reverse engineering of technologies of unknown origin (which is defined to cover materials associated with uaps or incorporating tech that isn’t in line with current manufacturing knowledge), biological evidence of non-human intelligence, and any associated programs.
uaps are specifically not defined as ‘alien spaceships’, but instead cover any object with performance characteristics and properties that go beyond what’s currently known to be achievable based on commonly acceptable physical principles. that covers any alien spaceships that might turn up, as well as any secret breakthrough human tech (domestic or foreign).
the amendment explicitly excludes records relating to ‘temporarily non-attributed objects’, basically meaning things that the initial observer couldn’t explain, but that are subsequently shown to have a prosaic explanation (i.e. not aliens, not human super-tech). presumably because, as far as i know, no-one's suggested that there is any issue getting access to those records.
so: if you think uaps should be rigorously investigated, that presumably requires gathering records of all uaps, not just the ones that you’re pretty sure will turn out to be balloons. in fact, you should arguably care a lot more about the ones that seem very unlikely to be balloons (or seagulls, or single-sensor artifacts, or swamp gas, or russia using drones to fuck with you) and that fit the amendment’s definition of ‘uap’, because even if you don't give a toss about aliens, if china has developed vehicles that can do things we don’t understand, that’s a big problem. but you're not confident that all of these records are available or easily obtainable just by having a member of congress ask nicely.
given that, what's the issue with the amendment in practice, for someone who apparently wants uaps to be investigated? is there some unidentified reason why the collation and review of previously undisclosed government records on uaps will constitute a "flow of bad faith bullshit", rather than more data that can be analysed? or any other reason to reject a process seeking disclosure of those records in favour (presumably) of some hypothetical more perfect future uap investigation that no-one has previously seen fit to pursue?
if you're twitchy about the fact that the amendment's also intended to capture records re alien bodies, well, either some such records will be disclosed (in which case we'll all have more interesting things to discuss) or they won't (in which case we can gloat at true believers or furiously theorise about cover-ups, depending on which of the two possible views we hold on this issue).
posted by inire at 2:49 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yes I am aware the bill contains a bunch of spooky language not quite committing to it being about aliens but totally making it about aliens. I don’t think it’s fooling anyone on that count nor is anyone else employing the same trick.
The bill, like the hearings, very much appears to be a scooping together whatever it can to support that conclusion.
I would disagree with premise that UAVs are currently “not investigated” and require a spooky aliens bill to be investigated. As I’ve said before the main impetus behind the bill and the hearings appears to be that current investigations do not turn up enough spooky findings.
posted by Artw at 3:08 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
The bill, like the hearings, very much appears to be a scooping together whatever it can to support that conclusion.
I would disagree with premise that UAVs are currently “not investigated” and require a spooky aliens bill to be investigated. As I’ve said before the main impetus behind the bill and the hearings appears to be that current investigations do not turn up enough spooky findings.
posted by Artw at 3:08 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
I would disagree with premise that UAVs are currently “not investigated
that’s not the premise. the premise is that it is not clear that all uap-related records are available for investigation, which they should be.
do you think all uap-related records are available for investigation? if not, why would it be a problem if previously undisclosed records were made available as a result of this amendment?
posted by inire at 3:25 PM on August 4, 2023
that’s not the premise. the premise is that it is not clear that all uap-related records are available for investigation, which they should be.
do you think all uap-related records are available for investigation? if not, why would it be a problem if previously undisclosed records were made available as a result of this amendment?
posted by inire at 3:25 PM on August 4, 2023
Because the bill by its language ends up casting every blip and bloop as evidence of aliens and firehoses it out into the world as such regardless of if it’s actually going to turn out to be a duck or w/e?
posted by Artw at 3:33 PM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 3:33 PM on August 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
setting aside the fact that the amendment’s language only captures records of uaps that appear to demonstrate inexplicable behaviour and haven’t been subsequently explained…
…so what? people who are currently true believers in aliens will continue to believe. people who are diehard skeptics will continue not to believe. people who are inclined to analyse data when it’s presented (eg scientists) will look at it and may, over time, give us a better understanding as to what the explanations might be. what’s the problem with that?
posted by inire at 3:41 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
…so what? people who are currently true believers in aliens will continue to believe. people who are diehard skeptics will continue not to believe. people who are inclined to analyse data when it’s presented (eg scientists) will look at it and may, over time, give us a better understanding as to what the explanations might be. what’s the problem with that?
posted by inire at 3:41 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
The problem of giving false legitimacy to a bunch of bullshit is you give false legitimacy to a bunch of bullshit. I don’t think I’ve been unclear on that.
posted by Artw at 3:50 PM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Artw at 3:50 PM on August 4, 2023 [4 favorites]
why would enabling scientists and other experts to analyse a full range of uap-related records to determine what might explain any so-far-unexplained incidents give ‘false legitimacy’ to true believers in aliens?
if they all have access to the same data, rather than jealously hoarding their supposed spacecraft samples, anyone who puts out a credulous and poorly reasoned analysis can be shredded in peer review, informal or otherwise. rigorous analyses of materials relating to a supposedly extraordinary case will either tend to debunk it (no false legitimacy), tend to support it (legitimacy, but not false), or be inconclusive (status quo).
and even if you think analysis of this data could somehow provide false legitimacy to true believers, why is that more important than all the other things it could do, like identifying (or ruling out) the existence of other “real tangible problems” and enabling the kind of “legitimate attempts to identify unidentified phenomena” that you referred to above?
seems like an odd thing to focus on if you do in fact think there’s merit in investigating uaps. even odder to conclude that it justifies not investigating until we get some hypothetical future situation that results in all of these records being disclosed without anyone saying the word ‘aliens’.
posted by inire at 4:46 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
if they all have access to the same data, rather than jealously hoarding their supposed spacecraft samples, anyone who puts out a credulous and poorly reasoned analysis can be shredded in peer review, informal or otherwise. rigorous analyses of materials relating to a supposedly extraordinary case will either tend to debunk it (no false legitimacy), tend to support it (legitimacy, but not false), or be inconclusive (status quo).
and even if you think analysis of this data could somehow provide false legitimacy to true believers, why is that more important than all the other things it could do, like identifying (or ruling out) the existence of other “real tangible problems” and enabling the kind of “legitimate attempts to identify unidentified phenomena” that you referred to above?
seems like an odd thing to focus on if you do in fact think there’s merit in investigating uaps. even odder to conclude that it justifies not investigating until we get some hypothetical future situation that results in all of these records being disclosed without anyone saying the word ‘aliens’.
posted by inire at 4:46 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
because they are letting con artists talk in front of talk in front of congress is bad
posted by sagc at 4:58 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by sagc at 4:58 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Inire - Well firstly I don’t actually believe there’s any hoard of hidden data that’s got all the super interesting stuff in it that AARO doesn’t have.
Secondly when I say “unexplained” I mean there isn’t an explanation for it yet, and it might be a Chinese balloon or a sensor artifact that it might be useful to know about, not an arcane gap in mankind’s knowledge full of the supernatural. Of it never gets explained that’s annoying, but it’s probably still a duck or some debris and we just haven’t figured out why it looks weird, not an existential threat. I’m not an expert on bureaucracy but we probably don’t need a congressional act on mandatory spooky stuff reporting for that and it sounds like a lot of overhead.
It feels like you’re trying to trap me here on this with some kind of gotcha and it’s sort of silly? I’d stop that.
Thirdly, no, the data showing no aliens would not cause people to give up on saying there must be data with aliens out there somewhere, you with your whole philosophy of “evidence is the same as no evidence” should know that.
Fourthly everyone knows that “non human biologicals”, “ultra terrestrials”, and “something beyond our explanation but I’m not saying aliens” all just means aliens. That dance is VERY silly.
posted by Artw at 5:20 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Secondly when I say “unexplained” I mean there isn’t an explanation for it yet, and it might be a Chinese balloon or a sensor artifact that it might be useful to know about, not an arcane gap in mankind’s knowledge full of the supernatural. Of it never gets explained that’s annoying, but it’s probably still a duck or some debris and we just haven’t figured out why it looks weird, not an existential threat. I’m not an expert on bureaucracy but we probably don’t need a congressional act on mandatory spooky stuff reporting for that and it sounds like a lot of overhead.
It feels like you’re trying to trap me here on this with some kind of gotcha and it’s sort of silly? I’d stop that.
Thirdly, no, the data showing no aliens would not cause people to give up on saying there must be data with aliens out there somewhere, you with your whole philosophy of “evidence is the same as no evidence” should know that.
Fourthly everyone knows that “non human biologicals”, “ultra terrestrials”, and “something beyond our explanation but I’m not saying aliens” all just means aliens. That dance is VERY silly.
posted by Artw at 5:20 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
So, did the aliens show up yet?
posted by signal at 8:05 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by signal at 8:05 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
I think if Schumer-Rounds’ amendment is passed we will see a dump of data to the National Archives and a bunch of media reports and then the public will lose interest unless they actually rollout a wrecked spaceship or an alien body. If it is more of what AARO and its predecessors have released then I think the public will lose interest pretty quickly. It may even be helpful as there will be scientists and skeptics taking a hard look at the work product and hopefully improving the quality of the Government’s analysis.
posted by interogative mood at 9:29 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 9:29 PM on August 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
why would enabling scientists and other experts to analyse a full range of uap-related records to determine what might explain any so-far-unexplained incidents give ‘false legitimacy’ to true believers in aliens?
It wouldn't, but that's a total bait-and-switch. Legislation to enable scientists and other experts to analyze a full range of UAP-related records to determine what might explain any so-far-unexplained incidents would not require the kind of X-Files-adjacent language that's present in the legislation presently under discussion. All that that achieves is putting a thumb on the explanatory scales that none of the extant evidence could possibly justify.
This legislation serves mainly to give those inclined to belief in assorted kinds of fiction even more false hope of one day seeing the Indisputable Proof That We Are Not Alone That The Gubmint Has Been Hiding From Us than they already had, thereby deepening the pool of potential marks for unscrupulous con artists to prey upon.
I'm going to go out on another limb here and make a confident prediction that if we ever do get indisputable proof that we are not alone it will be an astronomer who finds it, not David "Sex" Fravor.
posted by flabdablet at 11:07 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
It wouldn't, but that's a total bait-and-switch. Legislation to enable scientists and other experts to analyze a full range of UAP-related records to determine what might explain any so-far-unexplained incidents would not require the kind of X-Files-adjacent language that's present in the legislation presently under discussion. All that that achieves is putting a thumb on the explanatory scales that none of the extant evidence could possibly justify.
This legislation serves mainly to give those inclined to belief in assorted kinds of fiction even more false hope of one day seeing the Indisputable Proof That We Are Not Alone That The Gubmint Has Been Hiding From Us than they already had, thereby deepening the pool of potential marks for unscrupulous con artists to prey upon.
I'm going to go out on another limb here and make a confident prediction that if we ever do get indisputable proof that we are not alone it will be an astronomer who finds it, not David "Sex" Fravor.
posted by flabdablet at 11:07 PM on August 4, 2023 [3 favorites]
I agree if we find it, evidence of aliens will probably come via astronomy if it comes. The question of do we have any neighbors should have an answer in the next few years. By neighbors I mean within about 100 lightyears. We’re just now getting the tools to look and it’s not a huge dataset of possible targets at that radius. Either we’ll see something that clearly shows life and then start studying more closely or we’ll become increasingly certain that no one is nearby.
posted by interogative mood at 11:40 PM on August 4, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 11:40 PM on August 4, 2023
> "The question of do we have any neighbors should have an answer in the next few years. By neighbors I mean within about 100 lightyears."
I asked my spouse the exoplanet astronomer, who said that "in the next few years" is... not gonna happen. Within the next 50 years was the prediction made.
> "it’s not a huge dataset of possible targets"
There are tens of thousands of stars within that radius.
posted by kyrademon at 12:43 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
I asked my spouse the exoplanet astronomer, who said that "in the next few years" is... not gonna happen. Within the next 50 years was the prediction made.
> "it’s not a huge dataset of possible targets"
There are tens of thousands of stars within that radius.
posted by kyrademon at 12:43 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
It feels like you’re trying to trap me here on this with some kind of gotcha and it’s sort of silly? I’d stop that.
i’m trying to understand why it is that someone supposedly supportive of uaps being investigated is unwilling to acknowledge the possibility of there being any value at all in a bill that would assist in doing that. if you feel that to be some sort of trap, that’s your issue.
but the impression you give is of treating this as, in essence, a partisan political issue, rather than a question of fact - one can never acknowledge that there is ever the slightest value in a view expressed by a political enemy, because doing so would strengthen them, and that’s bad. that’s a slightly more sustainable position when talking about generalities - is this aliens, y / n - but leads to increasingly irrational positions when getting into the details. (it also happens to be yet another example of an equivalency with the approach of the more blinkered true believers.)
other skeptics - in this thread and elsewhere - have been capable of seeing this as a question of fact, and recognising that the opportunity to get more data via this amendment is a good thing (even if that’s because they think the amendment will reveal an absence of further data, or data supporting a non-aliens explanation). i wanted to understand if that was the case for you, as one of the more frequent skeptic commenters in the thread - clearly it isn’t.
(and lest you think this is all about you, flabdablet has been good enough to provide a similarly fine example of epistemic closure just above. it’s a broad church, everyone’s welcome.)
posted by inire at 1:04 PM on August 5, 2023
i’m trying to understand why it is that someone supposedly supportive of uaps being investigated is unwilling to acknowledge the possibility of there being any value at all in a bill that would assist in doing that. if you feel that to be some sort of trap, that’s your issue.
but the impression you give is of treating this as, in essence, a partisan political issue, rather than a question of fact - one can never acknowledge that there is ever the slightest value in a view expressed by a political enemy, because doing so would strengthen them, and that’s bad. that’s a slightly more sustainable position when talking about generalities - is this aliens, y / n - but leads to increasingly irrational positions when getting into the details. (it also happens to be yet another example of an equivalency with the approach of the more blinkered true believers.)
other skeptics - in this thread and elsewhere - have been capable of seeing this as a question of fact, and recognising that the opportunity to get more data via this amendment is a good thing (even if that’s because they think the amendment will reveal an absence of further data, or data supporting a non-aliens explanation). i wanted to understand if that was the case for you, as one of the more frequent skeptic commenters in the thread - clearly it isn’t.
(and lest you think this is all about you, flabdablet has been good enough to provide a similarly fine example of epistemic closure just above. it’s a broad church, everyone’s welcome.)
posted by inire at 1:04 PM on August 5, 2023
I don’t think that 60,000 stars is a very big dataset but I defer to the experts. In my dreamworld we would have several teams working to classify all these nearby stars and catalog their characteristics like planetary systems configuration, habitable zone, etc. I wish we had an effort like the human genome project working on this data. Alas instead the national archives will get no money to preserve the records of every blurry picture off a pilot’s smart phone.
posted by interogative mood at 1:33 PM on August 5, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 1:33 PM on August 5, 2023
> "I don’t think that 60,000 stars is a very big dataset but I defer to the experts."
Just FYI -- it's closer to 10,000. I got that same "60,000" result when I googled it, but the Gaia database says it's incorrect. My spouse says, however, that not only is 10,000 a huge dataset in this instance, but out of those 10,000, we do not yet have the technology to find or characterize habitable zone planets around almost all of them.
> "In my dreamworld we would have several teams working to classify all these nearby stars and catalog their characteristics like planetary systems configuration, habitable zone, etc."
There are! They're trying! But the technology simply isn't capable of what you and they want yet.
First, they have to find habitable zone planets. Currently, the best way to do this is by transit. But transit requires that planets be in a certain configuration with respect to us and their stars, and lots of planets aren't. We can't see them yet. And on top of that, a planet like earth would only transit once a year. You'd have to spot it at exactly the right time.
For those habitable zone planets we can detect, we have to have good enough telescopes to characterize the planets -- analyze them for potential signs of life (which is an extremely complicated issue in and of itself.) With the best telescope we have, the James Webb Space Telescope, how many of these planets are we going to be able to characterize?
Around 10. Total. All of them orbiting small stars which almost certainly do not provide the best conditions for fostering life, even if they are technically in the "habitable zone".
The rest? They're going to have to wait for better telescopes to be designed, built, and probably launched into space. And THAT'S where the wait comes.
It isn't for lack of trying.
posted by kyrademon at 2:35 PM on August 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
Just FYI -- it's closer to 10,000. I got that same "60,000" result when I googled it, but the Gaia database says it's incorrect. My spouse says, however, that not only is 10,000 a huge dataset in this instance, but out of those 10,000, we do not yet have the technology to find or characterize habitable zone planets around almost all of them.
> "In my dreamworld we would have several teams working to classify all these nearby stars and catalog their characteristics like planetary systems configuration, habitable zone, etc."
There are! They're trying! But the technology simply isn't capable of what you and they want yet.
First, they have to find habitable zone planets. Currently, the best way to do this is by transit. But transit requires that planets be in a certain configuration with respect to us and their stars, and lots of planets aren't. We can't see them yet. And on top of that, a planet like earth would only transit once a year. You'd have to spot it at exactly the right time.
For those habitable zone planets we can detect, we have to have good enough telescopes to characterize the planets -- analyze them for potential signs of life (which is an extremely complicated issue in and of itself.) With the best telescope we have, the James Webb Space Telescope, how many of these planets are we going to be able to characterize?
Around 10. Total. All of them orbiting small stars which almost certainly do not provide the best conditions for fostering life, even if they are technically in the "habitable zone".
The rest? They're going to have to wait for better telescopes to be designed, built, and probably launched into space. And THAT'S where the wait comes.
It isn't for lack of trying.
posted by kyrademon at 2:35 PM on August 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
Inire - pretty sure you’ve got as direct an answer from me as you can possibly want.
posted by Artw at 3:02 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 3:02 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Thanks kyrademon. Extremely informative.
posted by interogative mood at 8:15 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 8:15 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yeah, my epistem always closes over when I reach around to pat myself on the back. I guess it's something that doesn't happen to people without tentacles.
I've said too much
that’s a slightly more sustainable position when talking about generalities - is this aliens, y / n
And there we go again with the bait and switch.
IHBT. Fair play to inire, whose deadpan game is impeccable. HTH. HAND.
posted by flabdablet at 10:34 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've said too much
that’s a slightly more sustainable position when talking about generalities - is this aliens, y / n
And there we go again with the bait and switch.
IHBT. Fair play to inire, whose deadpan game is impeccable. HTH. HAND.
posted by flabdablet at 10:34 PM on August 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
Inire - pretty sure you’ve got as direct an answer from me as you can possibly want.
i think i have as direct an answer as i’m going to get, but appreciate the responses.
And there we go again with the bait and switch
a thing (the hypothetical presence of aliens, tim burchett) being different from another thing (details of uap-related legislation, 40-odd purported witnesses) is not a bait and switch. if you think i’ve mischaracterised anything you’ve said, happy to listen.
posted by inire at 3:13 AM on August 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
i think i have as direct an answer as i’m going to get, but appreciate the responses.
And there we go again with the bait and switch
a thing (the hypothetical presence of aliens, tim burchett) being different from another thing (details of uap-related legislation, 40-odd purported witnesses) is not a bait and switch. if you think i’ve mischaracterised anything you’ve said, happy to listen.
posted by inire at 3:13 AM on August 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
inire You keep circling back to this UFO vs UAP sort of thing, the idea that skeptics are somehow being unfair by daring to say "dude, it isn't aliens" by splitting hairs and claiming that no one ever said it was aliens it's just "UAP" and blah blah blah.
The entire thing is about aliens. Let's not fuck around, k? They didn't have hearings over pilots reporting odd readings, they had hearings because the alien conspiracy theorists managed to get Congress to legitimize their conspiracy theory.
So yes, talking as if its very confusing that people are talking about aliens when it's TOTALLY just about slightly odd things that pilots report seeing is a bait and switch.
posted by sotonohito at 4:03 AM on August 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
The entire thing is about aliens. Let's not fuck around, k? They didn't have hearings over pilots reporting odd readings, they had hearings because the alien conspiracy theorists managed to get Congress to legitimize their conspiracy theory.
So yes, talking as if its very confusing that people are talking about aliens when it's TOTALLY just about slightly odd things that pilots report seeing is a bait and switch.
posted by sotonohito at 4:03 AM on August 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
I don't think this is about aliens, but rather about UAP. That is certainly my area of concern. I'm finding the skeptics in this thread to be talking aliens more than people interested in the hearings. Shrug? Just my data point.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:13 AM on August 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:13 AM on August 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I think sotonohito is saying that the impetus for the bill is more about aliens than clinical, open-minded study of UAPs or whatever, not that specific people in the thread believe it's aliens - although I think with that "skeptics" vs "people interested in the hearings" divide you're ignoring some pretty strong advocates for alien or vaguely supernatural explanations in the thread.
I definitely agree with sotonohito, I don't think this bill gets this far without the exciting "the government is hiding aliens!" hook.
posted by jason_steakums at 5:38 AM on August 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I definitely agree with sotonohito, I don't think this bill gets this far without the exciting "the government is hiding aliens!" hook.
posted by jason_steakums at 5:38 AM on August 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sorry, want trying to ignore anything, although the way the thread is I was expecting to be dinged for something!
Sure, impetus. But the reason for investigating, if that is the impetus, doesn't really bother me, since I'm interested in finding out more about UAPs.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:52 AM on August 7, 2023
Sure, impetus. But the reason for investigating, if that is the impetus, doesn't really bother me, since I'm interested in finding out more about UAPs.
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:52 AM on August 7, 2023
(Wasn't trying)
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:59 AM on August 7, 2023
posted by tiny frying pan at 5:59 AM on August 7, 2023
While I don't discourage any legitimate, non-conspiracy based, inquiry into unidentified observations (calling them "phenomena" is already tainting the issue by presuming it was something real rather than just a glitch) it's very clear that nothing in the hearings or the bill is about that.
This ammendment is just free advertising for Skinwalker Ranch and similar cons and granting dangerous legitimacy to a completely bonkers conspiracy theory presuming a massive planetary group numbering in the tens of millions. [1]
There is not going to produce any serious investigation of unexplained observations because it has already started by presuming the observations are of actual things and it goes on to sat that aliens ("NHI" my ass, be honest people don't hide behind pathetic and transparent made up weasel words) are involved.
Since the bill has presupposed the outcome you can't seriously expect it to result in any real study. It's just going to be more Skinwalker Ranch crap where they claim a fly buzzing past their camera is a UFO traveling at dozens of times the speed of sound
[1] the people trying to pretend that the conspiracy could totally be a tiny thing with only a hundred or so conspirators are not just wrong by actively encouraging dangerous movements that end in mass shooters and Donald Trump
posted by sotonohito at 8:16 AM on August 7, 2023
This ammendment is just free advertising for Skinwalker Ranch and similar cons and granting dangerous legitimacy to a completely bonkers conspiracy theory presuming a massive planetary group numbering in the tens of millions. [1]
There is not going to produce any serious investigation of unexplained observations because it has already started by presuming the observations are of actual things and it goes on to sat that aliens ("NHI" my ass, be honest people don't hide behind pathetic and transparent made up weasel words) are involved.
Since the bill has presupposed the outcome you can't seriously expect it to result in any real study. It's just going to be more Skinwalker Ranch crap where they claim a fly buzzing past their camera is a UFO traveling at dozens of times the speed of sound
[1] the people trying to pretend that the conspiracy could totally be a tiny thing with only a hundred or so conspirators are not just wrong by actively encouraging dangerous movements that end in mass shooters and Donald Trump
posted by sotonohito at 8:16 AM on August 7, 2023
Ok
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:31 AM on August 7, 2023
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:31 AM on August 7, 2023
Section 1634 as passed by the Senate is a pretty watered down version of the Schumer-Rounds proposal. Specifically it limits the executive branch from spending money on UAP / vehicle recovery / or doing tech transfer without informing key Congressional leaders and appropriate committees. It establishes that the presumption will be that UAP reports will become available to the public.
posted by interogative mood at 6:07 PM on August 7, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 6:07 PM on August 7, 2023
interogative mood: "Section 1634 as passed by the Senate is a pretty watered down version of the Schumer-Rounds proposal. Specifically it limits the executive branch from spending money on UAP / vehicle recovery / or doing tech transfer without informing key Congressional leaders and appropriate committees. It establishes that the presumption will be that UAP reports will become available to the public."
What text are you looking at? Section 1634 in the Senate's current NDAA bill deals with Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. I pulled up the current UAP amendment text (Division G, Section 9001) and compared it to the draft text from the FPP; they're virtually identical. The only changes I noticed:
- filling in placeholders for section numbers
- swapping out mention of "title" for "division"
- adding definition for a "Director" of the disclosure review board
- clarifying fee structures for record requests
- specifying which congressional committees are responsible for oversight and granting needed clearances
- interestingly, replacing the lone mention of the mysterious "UAP Disclosure Foundation" with "Established nonprofit research organizations relating to unidentified anomalous phenomena"
- adding a provision for identifying conflicts of interest in review board nominees
- cleaning up language around the nomination process
- removing a provision for interim discretionary funding
posted by Rhaomi at 11:05 PM on August 7, 2023
What text are you looking at? Section 1634 in the Senate's current NDAA bill deals with Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. I pulled up the current UAP amendment text (Division G, Section 9001) and compared it to the draft text from the FPP; they're virtually identical. The only changes I noticed:
- filling in placeholders for section numbers
- swapping out mention of "title" for "division"
- adding definition for a "Director" of the disclosure review board
- clarifying fee structures for record requests
- specifying which congressional committees are responsible for oversight and granting needed clearances
- interestingly, replacing the lone mention of the mysterious "UAP Disclosure Foundation" with "Established nonprofit research organizations relating to unidentified anomalous phenomena"
- adding a provision for identifying conflicts of interest in review board nominees
- cleaning up language around the nomination process
- removing a provision for interim discretionary funding
posted by Rhaomi at 11:05 PM on August 7, 2023
The entire thing is about aliens.
No, I won't have that!
Some people just have totally legitimate concerns about ethics in video game journalism.
posted by flabdablet at 4:02 AM on August 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
No, I won't have that!
Some people just have totally legitimate concerns about ethics in video game journalism.
posted by flabdablet at 4:02 AM on August 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
Established nonprofit research organizations relating to unidentified anomalous phenomena
Gosh, I wonder who was just using the hearings to advertise one of those.
posted by Artw at 6:29 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Gosh, I wonder who was just using the hearings to advertise one of those.
posted by Artw at 6:29 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Wow. I wasn't cynical enough. I didn't think I was incapable of sufficient cynicism, distrust, and contempt when it came to UFO crap but I was.
So it wasn't just a circus of bullshit to give credibility to UFO con artists and hucksters.
It wasn't just a total failure to show ANYTHING AT ALL that indicated UFO's were real.
It was really just a stealth diversion of tax dollars to UFO swindlers.
Damn.
Skinwalker Ranch or some other equally odious and transparently bullshit scam will become a non-profit and get my tax dollars to spread dangerous lies and further acquire dangerous and undeserved credibility because it's going to be an offiial government subsidized non-profit.
What next? A tax funded "non-profit" to study Pizzagate and investigate the burning question of whether or not liberals are raping and torturing children for adrenochrome?
Or a vital government funded study of the vast conspiracy to keep the truth that the Earth is flat hidden?
Things just keep getting worse and worse without a single ray of hope for humanity.
posted by sotonohito at 9:05 AM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
So it wasn't just a circus of bullshit to give credibility to UFO con artists and hucksters.
It wasn't just a total failure to show ANYTHING AT ALL that indicated UFO's were real.
It was really just a stealth diversion of tax dollars to UFO swindlers.
Damn.
Skinwalker Ranch or some other equally odious and transparently bullshit scam will become a non-profit and get my tax dollars to spread dangerous lies and further acquire dangerous and undeserved credibility because it's going to be an offiial government subsidized non-profit.
What next? A tax funded "non-profit" to study Pizzagate and investigate the burning question of whether or not liberals are raping and torturing children for adrenochrome?
Or a vital government funded study of the vast conspiracy to keep the truth that the Earth is flat hidden?
Things just keep getting worse and worse without a single ray of hope for humanity.
posted by sotonohito at 9:05 AM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
Skinwalker Ranch or some other equally odious and transparently bullshit scam will become a non-profit and get my tax dollars to spread dangerous lies and further acquire dangerous and undeserved credibility because it's going to be an offiial government subsidized non-profit.
I am 99% sure this is the slot lined up for Americans for Safe Aerospace, the organisation Ryan Graves founded.
posted by Artw at 9:29 AM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
I am 99% sure this is the slot lined up for Americans for Safe Aerospace, the organisation Ryan Graves founded.
posted by Artw at 9:29 AM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
the burning question of whether or not liberals are raping and torturing children for adrenochrome
To be completely fair, you cannot in principle be fully certain that this doesn't happen. Nor is it in principle impossible that there are elites within the military and intelligence communities who know exactly where it goes on and have been keeping that information under wraps for decades.
Ironically, this means that those who oppose setting up a Congressional investigation into this are (in practice) advocating for data to be withheld, creating a cover-up where (in their view) none currently exists.
posted by flabdablet at 10:31 AM on August 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
To be completely fair, you cannot in principle be fully certain that this doesn't happen. Nor is it in principle impossible that there are elites within the military and intelligence communities who know exactly where it goes on and have been keeping that information under wraps for decades.
Ironically, this means that those who oppose setting up a Congressional investigation into this are (in practice) advocating for data to be withheld, creating a cover-up where (in their view) none currently exists.
posted by flabdablet at 10:31 AM on August 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
For the talk about evidence, I'm seeing a lot of fact-free innuendo here. Graves' outfit is not just a nonprofit -- it also has an unpaid, all-volunteer staff of pilots, scientists, and former government officials. The NDAA bill says nothing about funding it or any other private group. The Skinwalker Ranch stuff has been cited by critics here far more than it was mentioned by anybody in the hearing (zero). And the insulting comparisons to Flat Earth, Gamergate, and Qanon continue to be inflammatory and ridiculous.
posted by Rhaomi at 10:50 AM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Rhaomi at 10:50 AM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
To be completely fair, you cannot in principle be fully certain that this doesn't happen.
You just watch me.
posted by delfin at 10:59 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
You just watch me.
posted by delfin at 10:59 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
“inflammatory and ridiculous.”
You realize that this post is about evidence free claims that there is a secret government conspiracy to conceal malign outside forces from the public?
posted by Artw at 11:05 AM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
You realize that this post is about evidence free claims that there is a secret government conspiracy to conceal malign outside forces from the public?
posted by Artw at 11:05 AM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
To be completely fair, you cannot in principle be fully certain that this doesn't happen.
Indeed: there's a non-zero chance that it's happening (because it's technically not impossible that everything about pizzagate is real) and we should give that full consideration and a public hearing. Why I even heard someone with a Q security clearance has shared information about it!
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 11:07 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Indeed: there's a non-zero chance that it's happening (because it's technically not impossible that everything about pizzagate is real) and we should give that full consideration and a public hearing. Why I even heard someone with a Q security clearance has shared information about it!
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 11:07 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I believe Q is actually not only extremely highly placed but a relative of one of America’s most highly revered presidents, their authority on the matter is unquestionable.
posted by Artw at 11:11 AM on August 8, 2023
posted by Artw at 11:11 AM on August 8, 2023
I don't know how John de Lancie continues to show so much restraint on the socials. I would not be able to refrain from Q-posting.
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:21 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:21 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
When the Pentagon, NASA, the NY Times, the Democratic Senate majority leader and Intel Committee, multiple foreign intelligence services, and multiple independent witnesses with high military clearances all start releasing footage and sworn testimony and writing major legislation about the adrenochrome conspiracy -- as opposed to a single anonymous 8chan troll (who later outs themselves) and their legions of Trump cult randos -- then it will be a fair comparison to make.
There have been decades of hoaxsters and frauds making baseless assertions about UFOs that have been largely ignored; the whole reason this situation is so interesting is because it has apparently struck a nerve with very powerful and serious people and institutions and has the hallmarks of something real by the way it's being broached and handled (whistleblower laws, highly respected lawyers, credentialed people making specific claims under oath, official government footage, defense bills with unprecedented language, etc.)
posted by Rhaomi at 11:28 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
There have been decades of hoaxsters and frauds making baseless assertions about UFOs that have been largely ignored; the whole reason this situation is so interesting is because it has apparently struck a nerve with very powerful and serious people and institutions and has the hallmarks of something real by the way it's being broached and handled (whistleblower laws, highly respected lawyers, credentialed people making specific claims under oath, official government footage, defense bills with unprecedented language, etc.)
posted by Rhaomi at 11:28 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I was looking at the wrong version. It is in there See SEC 9001.
posted by interogative mood at 11:31 AM on August 8, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 11:31 AM on August 8, 2023
inire You keep circling back to this UFO vs UAP sort of thing, the idea that skeptics are somehow being unfair by daring to say "dude, it isn't aliens" by splitting hairs and claiming that no one ever said it was aliens it's just "UAP" and blah blah blah.
The entire thing is about aliens. Let's not fuck around, k? They didn't have hearings over pilots reporting odd readings, they had hearings because the alien conspiracy theorists managed to get Congress to legitimize their conspiracy theory.
So yes, talking as if its very confusing that people are talking about aliens when it's TOTALLY just about slightly odd things that pilots report seeing is a bait and switch.
you’re conflating a couple of different things (again), and the difficulty you and others seem to have in grasping the distinction is why i keep circling back.
it’s very clear that there is interest in pursuing the aliens-related allegations. it’s also very clear that there is interest in finding out what the deal is with uaps being picked up by multiple sensors making extraordinary manoeuvres, including in restricted airspace. some people are much more interested in the aliens bit, others doubt this is aliens but think there is something that needs to be looked at re uaps (and are concerned that uap-related information has not been adequately dealt with by aaro) and are therefore happy to go along with a sufficiently broad information gathering exercise, without committing to uaps = aliens.
the amendment covers both of those categories. as such, if you are a person who thinks uaps who should be investigated but doesn’t think they have anything to do with aliens, you can still (if you’re willing to look at it objectively) find something of value in the amendment.
is that sufficiently clear? (rhetorical question, it is sufficiently clear.)
posted by inire at 11:47 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
The entire thing is about aliens. Let's not fuck around, k? They didn't have hearings over pilots reporting odd readings, they had hearings because the alien conspiracy theorists managed to get Congress to legitimize their conspiracy theory.
So yes, talking as if its very confusing that people are talking about aliens when it's TOTALLY just about slightly odd things that pilots report seeing is a bait and switch.
you’re conflating a couple of different things (again), and the difficulty you and others seem to have in grasping the distinction is why i keep circling back.
it’s very clear that there is interest in pursuing the aliens-related allegations. it’s also very clear that there is interest in finding out what the deal is with uaps being picked up by multiple sensors making extraordinary manoeuvres, including in restricted airspace. some people are much more interested in the aliens bit, others doubt this is aliens but think there is something that needs to be looked at re uaps (and are concerned that uap-related information has not been adequately dealt with by aaro) and are therefore happy to go along with a sufficiently broad information gathering exercise, without committing to uaps = aliens.
the amendment covers both of those categories. as such, if you are a person who thinks uaps who should be investigated but doesn’t think they have anything to do with aliens, you can still (if you’re willing to look at it objectively) find something of value in the amendment.
is that sufficiently clear? (rhetorical question, it is sufficiently clear.)
posted by inire at 11:47 AM on August 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
CityAndStateNY: Kirsten Gillibrand wants to know the truth about aliens
posted by Rhaomi at 11:47 AM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
What were your biggest takeaways from the recent testimony about alleged secret government programs involving UFOs?An important reminder that even if UAP sightings are "just" foreign surveillance tech, dismissing any investigation or even reporting of them as delusional conspiracy insanity is a great way to ensure that they continue to operate freely over sensitive facilities. Ditto if they're illicit contractor grift or a den of true believers ensconced in important positions.
They are very serious allegations. The hearing had two sets of testimony. The first was from pilots who saw an object flying in the sky that looked like a Tic Tac that had very strange patterns and abilities. Those pilots were retaliated against, and their careers were derailed, which is how I got involved in the issue. We want our pilots and our service members to come forward when they see things that they cannot identify, which is why I created the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office to review all of these unidentified aerial phenomena in a scientific and thorough way.
So far, they are looking at about 600 (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) reports and data sets and they’ve only finished about half of them. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence made a report on what AARO accomplished in January. There they assessed the first 366 unidentified aerial phenomena, about 26 were basically drone-like systems, 163 were balloon or balloon like-entities, six were birds or debris, but they couldn’t identify 171. We realized for AARO to really work better we are going to need a lot more sensors around military bases, nuclear sites, on our aircrafts. That is going to be one of my to-dos for the new Congress. Some of the unidentified aerial phenomena is going to be Chinese, some is going to be Russian, some is going to be Iranian and some may be others. But we need to know what we can know and at least identify the knowable so our pilots are safer, so that we know what else is in the sky. We were not tracking these spy balloons when the AARO office was created. That’s a problem. We need to know when our adversaries are spying on us. We need domain awareness, and we need air superiority. If our adversaries have technology that we don’t have, we need to know about it.
The second testimony was about a service member whose job was to investigate all UAP programs and co-locate them and write an assessment. Through that effort, this whistleblower met several people who said they had worked on alien-related programs where they either had crash material or that crash material resulted in dead aliens. I have no ability to verify that testimony because we’ve not been told of any such programs. We’ve asked for all information related to all programs and have not been given that detail. One of three things are true: Either it doesn’t exist and they worked on programs that were alien-related which weren’t, or they are making it up, or these programs do exist and the Department of Defense is not either read in on it, or the need to know is so small that the people that have been testifying in front of us don’t know about it, or they are just misrepresenting the facts.
I intend to get to the bottom of it. I think these service members – certainly the whistleblowers that I’ve met – are very thoughtful, serious people. So I really want to investigate it to its fullest.
posted by Rhaomi at 11:47 AM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
If UAP sightings are "just" foreign surveillance tech then I cannot imagine a better way that running all the evidence through Graves , who is not interested in spy balloons, or his organization to completely obscure that.
posted by Artw at 12:00 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 12:00 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
An important reminder that even if UAP sightings are "just" foreign surveillance tech, dismissing any investigation or even reporting of them as delusional conspiracy insanity is a great way to ensure that they continue to operate freely over sensitive facilities. Ditto if they're illicit contractor grift or a den of true believers ensconced in important positions.
b-b-but adrenochrome..!
slightly more on-topic, gillibrand’s role in this will be interesting - she’s a big backer of aaro (obviously, having set it up and just increased its funding), whereas grusch and others have been critical of its effectiveness. i saw a report (that i can’t now find) saying she’d asked grusch and kirkpatrick to meet after the hearing, which would be ‘interesting’ given the back and forth between them - presumably trying to get everyone to play nice so her pet project doesn’t get caught in any upcoming crossfire?
Ironically, this means that those who oppose setting up a Congressional investigation into this are (in practice) advocating for data to be withheld, creating a cover-up where (in their view) none currently exists.
pleased to have inspired your first substantive comment for a while, flabdablet - keep it up, we might get somewhere.
posted by inire at 12:00 PM on August 8, 2023
b-b-but adrenochrome..!
slightly more on-topic, gillibrand’s role in this will be interesting - she’s a big backer of aaro (obviously, having set it up and just increased its funding), whereas grusch and others have been critical of its effectiveness. i saw a report (that i can’t now find) saying she’d asked grusch and kirkpatrick to meet after the hearing, which would be ‘interesting’ given the back and forth between them - presumably trying to get everyone to play nice so her pet project doesn’t get caught in any upcoming crossfire?
Ironically, this means that those who oppose setting up a Congressional investigation into this are (in practice) advocating for data to be withheld, creating a cover-up where (in their view) none currently exists.
pleased to have inspired your first substantive comment for a while, flabdablet - keep it up, we might get somewhere.
posted by inire at 12:00 PM on August 8, 2023
I think Sen. Gillibrand is taking the right approach on this. Focus on what we can do better sensors, better monitoring, ensure pilots and others who observe something weird in the sky can come forward and not have their careers derailed. Get to the bottom of who told Grusch what and attempt to understand misunderstandings, truth and fiction regarding his claims. She seems to be wisely avoiding making any claims about aliens or proof of aliens and staying focused on threats we know are real like adversaries spying on us.
It is important to note that she is pointing out what the pilots said they observed, not claiming that this is what happened.
posted by interogative mood at 12:04 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
It is important to note that she is pointing out what the pilots said they observed, not claiming that this is what happened.
posted by interogative mood at 12:04 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
I have no beef with AARO, which appears to be doing good work especially now that it's partnered up with NASA. Want to give AARO more resources? Fine by me. AARO is doing something useful.
grusch and others have been critical of its effectiveness
And that would be because of AARO's steadfast refusal to say "it's aliens".
Grusch, Graves, Fravor et al are absolutely dogmatic about their leapt-to conclusions that it is aliens, so of course they're going to be dissatisfied with an agency that consistently presents only such analyses as are actually based on the available evidence and explicitly remains agnostic on reports that are too patchy and/or inconsistent to permit such analyses, like Fravor's Tic Tac campfire story.
Giving these AARO-critical barnums the credibility boost of making a Congressional committee go stand by the stairs does nothing to advance the state of human knowledge. It's a distraction and a waste and it should not have happened.
As for figuring out who told Grusch what and when and why: I don't think it matters. Military and intelligence projects run on Need To Know, and there are always going to be people adjacent to these things who don't need to know but find not knowing intolerable, which means they're going to make shit up so they can convince themselves they do know. And then others will get convinced likewise.
Being a Serious Person is not protective against that tendency. In fact, as appears to be the case with Fravor, being considered a Serious Person can strongly decrease the tolerability of unavoidable ignorance.
Grusch and people like him are an inevitable side effect of compartmented knowledge, and compartmented knowledge is an inevitable side effect of military-grade security. Cost of doing business, pretty much. Setting up a structure like AARO is about the best that can be done to mitigate that cost, and that's been done. Following Grusch down his own personal rabbit hole is only going to show that rabbits dug it and yeah, rabbits will do that.
posted by flabdablet at 1:04 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
grusch and others have been critical of its effectiveness
And that would be because of AARO's steadfast refusal to say "it's aliens".
Grusch, Graves, Fravor et al are absolutely dogmatic about their leapt-to conclusions that it is aliens, so of course they're going to be dissatisfied with an agency that consistently presents only such analyses as are actually based on the available evidence and explicitly remains agnostic on reports that are too patchy and/or inconsistent to permit such analyses, like Fravor's Tic Tac campfire story.
Giving these AARO-critical barnums the credibility boost of making a Congressional committee go stand by the stairs does nothing to advance the state of human knowledge. It's a distraction and a waste and it should not have happened.
As for figuring out who told Grusch what and when and why: I don't think it matters. Military and intelligence projects run on Need To Know, and there are always going to be people adjacent to these things who don't need to know but find not knowing intolerable, which means they're going to make shit up so they can convince themselves they do know. And then others will get convinced likewise.
Being a Serious Person is not protective against that tendency. In fact, as appears to be the case with Fravor, being considered a Serious Person can strongly decrease the tolerability of unavoidable ignorance.
Grusch and people like him are an inevitable side effect of compartmented knowledge, and compartmented knowledge is an inevitable side effect of military-grade security. Cost of doing business, pretty much. Setting up a structure like AARO is about the best that can be done to mitigate that cost, and that's been done. Following Grusch down his own personal rabbit hole is only going to show that rabbits dug it and yeah, rabbits will do that.
posted by flabdablet at 1:04 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not sure of this site, but someone put together a timeline of all the overlaps of David Grulsch and Skinwalker Rakch people at the UAP office. - that’d be a lot of rabbits.
posted by Artw at 1:55 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 1:55 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
I think I figured it out.
Anger is almost always caused by fear, and I'm deeply frightened by this event and the reaction and response it has gotten.
Not because I fear "the truth", but because I cannot help but see this as yet one more step my nation is taking into embracing conspiracy theory over sense, and superstitious hokum over science.
Conspiracy theories are dangerous. The spread of any conspiracy theory should be cause for alarm in anyone.
Magical thinking and rejection of reason are dangerous too, and their rise is alarming.
So when I see people I normally consider to be fairly reasonable people, people who aren't bonkers or into Q type shit, granting credibility to conspiracy theories, and even trying to justify the conspiracy theory thinking by indulging in BS to make it seem more plausible, I'm really scared.
There are only three realistic possibilities for unexplained observations (it isn't a "phenominon" until it is shown to be something other than a sensor glitch).
1. Sensor glitch
2. Misinterpertation of mundane things
3. Previously unidentified aircraft created by humans.
I'd like to have a lot more openness in government and a lot fewer secrets.
But given the choice between letting the secrecy obsessed warmongers in the US military keep their stupid fucking secrets or letting dangerous conspiracy theories get the backing of the US government, I'd pick the former every time.
And I'm also 100% convinced that if there actually is something in category 3 the military will invoke the national security loophole and not report it so all we'll get are examples of 1 and 2. I cannot believe that this pathetic and dangerous bill will compell any warmongering asshole to actually say "yup, we spotted a wikked kewl Chinese stealth plane".
So we end with NASA being forced to grant their credibility to Mr Very Serious Airforce, Grusch and the Skinwalker people granted a massive boost to their credibility, and America slipping further and further towards anti-science barbarism and people I thought were on my side apparently turning out to be on the side of a Q level idiotic conspiracy.
So yeah. I'm angry because I'm scared shitless. A bit like the Trump presidency the true horror isn't so much the event itself as what it tells me about my fellow Americans and the direction we're headed.
posted by sotonohito at 2:40 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Anger is almost always caused by fear, and I'm deeply frightened by this event and the reaction and response it has gotten.
Not because I fear "the truth", but because I cannot help but see this as yet one more step my nation is taking into embracing conspiracy theory over sense, and superstitious hokum over science.
Conspiracy theories are dangerous. The spread of any conspiracy theory should be cause for alarm in anyone.
Magical thinking and rejection of reason are dangerous too, and their rise is alarming.
So when I see people I normally consider to be fairly reasonable people, people who aren't bonkers or into Q type shit, granting credibility to conspiracy theories, and even trying to justify the conspiracy theory thinking by indulging in BS to make it seem more plausible, I'm really scared.
There are only three realistic possibilities for unexplained observations (it isn't a "phenominon" until it is shown to be something other than a sensor glitch).
1. Sensor glitch
2. Misinterpertation of mundane things
3. Previously unidentified aircraft created by humans.
I'd like to have a lot more openness in government and a lot fewer secrets.
But given the choice between letting the secrecy obsessed warmongers in the US military keep their stupid fucking secrets or letting dangerous conspiracy theories get the backing of the US government, I'd pick the former every time.
And I'm also 100% convinced that if there actually is something in category 3 the military will invoke the national security loophole and not report it so all we'll get are examples of 1 and 2. I cannot believe that this pathetic and dangerous bill will compell any warmongering asshole to actually say "yup, we spotted a wikked kewl Chinese stealth plane".
So we end with NASA being forced to grant their credibility to Mr Very Serious Airforce, Grusch and the Skinwalker people granted a massive boost to their credibility, and America slipping further and further towards anti-science barbarism and people I thought were on my side apparently turning out to be on the side of a Q level idiotic conspiracy.
So yeah. I'm angry because I'm scared shitless. A bit like the Trump presidency the true horror isn't so much the event itself as what it tells me about my fellow Americans and the direction we're headed.
posted by sotonohito at 2:40 PM on August 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Once again, Q was vague word salad from an anonymous poster on an anonymous imageboard notorious for racist trolling and bizarre conspiracy theories, and was spun out entirely by MAGA diehards trying to literally demonize their political opponents. There's a gigantic difference between that and known, vetted government officials testifying under oath about programs the government has already acknowledged exist (to an extent), and those claims being investigated by a bipartisan group of senators with the highest security clearances. Simply repeating the equivalency between the two doesn't make it any less false. And equating anybody who thinks these sightings merit looking into with cultists who shot up a pizza joint based on internet shitposts is really quite offensive, no matter how "scared" you are that less skeptical people are going to, idk, bum rush Area 51 with assault weapons or whatever the hell it is you're implying there.
posted by Rhaomi at 3:47 PM on August 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Rhaomi at 3:47 PM on August 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
Rhaomi - the thing about conspiracy theories, even the harmless seeming ones like secret Vatican UFOs is…
1. They all overlap and cross over, and once you’ve adopted a conspiratorial mindset it tends to support other theories, often less savory ones
2. Which means you’ll always get a daisy chain of links to violent extremism.
That’s just the unavoidable nature of the beast. Makes Fortean stuff a lot less fun.
posted by Artw at 4:17 PM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
1. They all overlap and cross over, and once you’ve adopted a conspiratorial mindset it tends to support other theories, often less savory ones
2. Which means you’ll always get a daisy chain of links to violent extremism.
That’s just the unavoidable nature of the beast. Makes Fortean stuff a lot less fun.
posted by Artw at 4:17 PM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
There's a gigantic difference between that and known, vetted government officials testifying under oath about programs the government has already acknowledged exist (to an extent), and those claims being investigated by a bipartisan group of senators with the highest security clearances.
Very clearly the actual parallel is The Satanic Panic allegations of Ritual Satanic Abuse of the 1980s-now. Which had: official bipartisan government investigation at local, state, and federal levels; vetted government officials testifying under oath about its prevalence; and wide spread acceptance in popular media.
I don't know, the whole point of science on some levels is that people are people no matter what their training\job\government clearance, and two things people are REALLY good at is finding patterns that aren't there and coming up with reasons why they're right after the fact.
posted by Gygesringtone at 5:49 PM on August 8, 2023 [10 favorites]
Very clearly the actual parallel is The Satanic Panic allegations of Ritual Satanic Abuse of the 1980s-now. Which had: official bipartisan government investigation at local, state, and federal levels; vetted government officials testifying under oath about its prevalence; and wide spread acceptance in popular media.
I don't know, the whole point of science on some levels is that people are people no matter what their training\job\government clearance, and two things people are REALLY good at is finding patterns that aren't there and coming up with reasons why they're right after the fact.
posted by Gygesringtone at 5:49 PM on August 8, 2023 [10 favorites]
Q was vague word salad from an anonymous poster on an anonymous imageboard notorious for racist trolling and bizarre conspiracy theories, and was spun out entirely by MAGA diehards trying to literally demonize their political opponents.
Indeed it was. And it has already become far more influential than any reasonable person would have predicted on the basis of its content and provenance alone.
And the reason it's managed to do that is that superficially more credible horseshit like War of the Worlds, Chariots of the Gods, The X Files, Ancient Aliens and the current round of Skinwalker Ranch grifters have succeeded in pushing the Overton Window far enough for "I dunno, maybe there's something in it" to have become the default public response to baseless and patently nonsensical speculation.
That default response enrages me exactly because I now have to live in a world where the public mind has mushified to an extent where Q and the Protocols and all the rest of that purely evil crank fodder is taken seriously enough to affect the processes of government. A public that can still think doesn't even come close to putting a stochastic parrot like TFG in charge of the nuclear football, and yet here we are.
People believe passionately in this shit. That is the problem. And the fact that some of those people are known, vetted government officials testifying under oath makes that worse, not better.
We are living in the scenario that the fable of the Emperor's New Clothes exists to warn us about and I am proud to be among the shrinking minority of voices shouting that the fucker is bare-ass naked. Because the fucker is bare-ass naked.
Secret hoards of alien tech that doesn't so much extend physics as ignore it, suppressed knowledge of visitation by NHI, transdimensional whateverthefuck, putative Men In Black whistleblowers being all I Could Tell You But Then I'd Have To Kill You, it's all horseshit. And the idea that any of it has any bearing on what AARO was set up to investigate is just ludicrous and should be laughed to scorn.
posted by flabdablet at 11:57 PM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
Indeed it was. And it has already become far more influential than any reasonable person would have predicted on the basis of its content and provenance alone.
And the reason it's managed to do that is that superficially more credible horseshit like War of the Worlds, Chariots of the Gods, The X Files, Ancient Aliens and the current round of Skinwalker Ranch grifters have succeeded in pushing the Overton Window far enough for "I dunno, maybe there's something in it" to have become the default public response to baseless and patently nonsensical speculation.
That default response enrages me exactly because I now have to live in a world where the public mind has mushified to an extent where Q and the Protocols and all the rest of that purely evil crank fodder is taken seriously enough to affect the processes of government. A public that can still think doesn't even come close to putting a stochastic parrot like TFG in charge of the nuclear football, and yet here we are.
People believe passionately in this shit. That is the problem. And the fact that some of those people are known, vetted government officials testifying under oath makes that worse, not better.
We are living in the scenario that the fable of the Emperor's New Clothes exists to warn us about and I am proud to be among the shrinking minority of voices shouting that the fucker is bare-ass naked. Because the fucker is bare-ass naked.
Secret hoards of alien tech that doesn't so much extend physics as ignore it, suppressed knowledge of visitation by NHI, transdimensional whateverthefuck, putative Men In Black whistleblowers being all I Could Tell You But Then I'd Have To Kill You, it's all horseshit. And the idea that any of it has any bearing on what AARO was set up to investigate is just ludicrous and should be laughed to scorn.
posted by flabdablet at 11:57 PM on August 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
To be even clearer:
"I saw some weird shit that I don't understand" is a perfectly respectable thing to need to report, it makes perfect sense not to stigmatize people who make those reports, and it makes perfect sense for an agency to exist that compiles and investigates them.
"On the basis of seeing some weird shit that I don't understand, I am now convinced that physics-defying technologies not only exist but pose an existential threat to the United States, and we need to get right on that as a matter of extreme urgency" is delusional self-aggrandizing horseshit.
posted by flabdablet at 12:17 AM on August 9, 2023 [7 favorites]
"I saw some weird shit that I don't understand" is a perfectly respectable thing to need to report, it makes perfect sense not to stigmatize people who make those reports, and it makes perfect sense for an agency to exist that compiles and investigates them.
"On the basis of seeing some weird shit that I don't understand, I am now convinced that physics-defying technologies not only exist but pose an existential threat to the United States, and we need to get right on that as a matter of extreme urgency" is delusional self-aggrandizing horseshit.
posted by flabdablet at 12:17 AM on August 9, 2023 [7 favorites]
And that would be because of AARO's steadfast refusal to say "it's aliens".
Grusch, Graves, Fravor et al are absolutely dogmatic about their leapt-to conclusions that it is aliens, so of course they're going to be dissatisfied with an agency that consistently presents only such analyses as are actually based on the available evidence and explicitly remains agnostic on reports that are too patchy and/or inconsistent to permit such analyses, like Fravor's Tic Tac campfire story.
not quite. the criticisms of aaro from grusch have been to do with its failure (or more specifically, kirkpatrick’s failure) to follow up on reports presented to it. grusch stated in the hearing that he had briefed kirkpatrick on the information he was receiving, which kirkpatrick never followed up on. grusch also said that purported witnesses went to kirkpatrick with the same information that they had provided to grusch, which was again not followed up on, and which was not (it appears) reflected in aaro’s reporting to congress. given that the entire purpose of aaro is to follow up on information it receives and report to congress on its activities and findings, this seems like it would be a problem.
of course, if this is all nonsense and aaro has in fact diligently followed up with grusch and these witnesses, received the same information that went to the intelligence committees, done everything it can to investigate these claims and found nothing, kirkpatrick will no doubt be able to provide some evidence of this, rather than rage-posting on linkedin. and yet, so far, he hasn’t. why is that?
As for figuring out who told Grusch what and when and why: I don't think it matters.
lol.
“hey guys, we’ve got 40-odd people telling us that government officials and defence contractors are involved in illegal activities going on outside of congressional oversight, using misappropriated funds, with retaliation against whistleblowers, and they’ve been providing classified evidence to the inspectors general and the congressional intel committees for the past couple of years. think we should take a quick look?”
“nah, they had the temerity to draw a conclusion about the weird shit they were seeing, so it’s probably nothing.”
for someone who supposedly thinks that ‘weird shit i don’t understand’ should be reported, investigated and not stigmatised, you’re doing a remarkably effective job of undercutting your own position.
posted by inire at 2:52 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Grusch, Graves, Fravor et al are absolutely dogmatic about their leapt-to conclusions that it is aliens, so of course they're going to be dissatisfied with an agency that consistently presents only such analyses as are actually based on the available evidence and explicitly remains agnostic on reports that are too patchy and/or inconsistent to permit such analyses, like Fravor's Tic Tac campfire story.
not quite. the criticisms of aaro from grusch have been to do with its failure (or more specifically, kirkpatrick’s failure) to follow up on reports presented to it. grusch stated in the hearing that he had briefed kirkpatrick on the information he was receiving, which kirkpatrick never followed up on. grusch also said that purported witnesses went to kirkpatrick with the same information that they had provided to grusch, which was again not followed up on, and which was not (it appears) reflected in aaro’s reporting to congress. given that the entire purpose of aaro is to follow up on information it receives and report to congress on its activities and findings, this seems like it would be a problem.
of course, if this is all nonsense and aaro has in fact diligently followed up with grusch and these witnesses, received the same information that went to the intelligence committees, done everything it can to investigate these claims and found nothing, kirkpatrick will no doubt be able to provide some evidence of this, rather than rage-posting on linkedin. and yet, so far, he hasn’t. why is that?
As for figuring out who told Grusch what and when and why: I don't think it matters.
lol.
“hey guys, we’ve got 40-odd people telling us that government officials and defence contractors are involved in illegal activities going on outside of congressional oversight, using misappropriated funds, with retaliation against whistleblowers, and they’ve been providing classified evidence to the inspectors general and the congressional intel committees for the past couple of years. think we should take a quick look?”
“nah, they had the temerity to draw a conclusion about the weird shit they were seeing, so it’s probably nothing.”
for someone who supposedly thinks that ‘weird shit i don’t understand’ should be reported, investigated and not stigmatised, you’re doing a remarkably effective job of undercutting your own position.
posted by inire at 2:52 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Very clearly the actual parallel is The Satanic Panic allegations of Ritual Satanic Abuse of the 1980s-now. Which had: official bipartisan government investigation at local, state, and federal levels; vetted government officials testifying under oath about its prevalence; and wide spread acceptance in popular media.
an inaccurate parallel, i think.
many topics have official bipartisan government investigation, officials testifying under oath, etc.
the distinguishing features of the satanic panic were that these things were taking place in relation to allegations that were (a) sensational, and (b) overwhelmingly made by young children in response to interviews that were explicitly designed to elicit said allegations, or by adults in response to therapy that likewise sought to ‘recover’ ‘memories’ of ritual abuse. the latter point being what confirmed this as a moral panic.
the allegations by grusch and (it seems) 40-odd other people are certainly sensational. but as far as i’m aware, none of those people has yet been identified as a young child, or as making their allegations during therapy designed to recover memories of aliens. if it turns out that all of these people were coerced into making their allegations due to grusch’s incredibly cunning interview techniques, no doubt we’ll be hearing about that shortly.
posted by inire at 3:38 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
an inaccurate parallel, i think.
many topics have official bipartisan government investigation, officials testifying under oath, etc.
the distinguishing features of the satanic panic were that these things were taking place in relation to allegations that were (a) sensational, and (b) overwhelmingly made by young children in response to interviews that were explicitly designed to elicit said allegations, or by adults in response to therapy that likewise sought to ‘recover’ ‘memories’ of ritual abuse. the latter point being what confirmed this as a moral panic.
the allegations by grusch and (it seems) 40-odd other people are certainly sensational. but as far as i’m aware, none of those people has yet been identified as a young child, or as making their allegations during therapy designed to recover memories of aliens. if it turns out that all of these people were coerced into making their allegations due to grusch’s incredibly cunning interview techniques, no doubt we’ll be hearing about that shortly.
posted by inire at 3:38 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
There is nothing the slightest bit weird, anomalous or difficult to understand about the way rumour mills operate, especially in environments where information cannot be freely shared and double especially in environments well populated by individuals with an unjustifiable level of confidence in their own infallibility.
The US military and intelligence community is exactly such an environment.
Kirkpatrick is well placed to know whether or not Grusch and his alleged informants are full of shit. My best guess is that he knows perfectly well that they are, and that he also knows perfectly well that anybody in his position who actually came out and said so in so many words would not, in today's political climate, keep their job for very long. I have yet to see him say or do anything inconsistent with that assessment.
posted by flabdablet at 3:43 AM on August 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
The US military and intelligence community is exactly such an environment.
Kirkpatrick is well placed to know whether or not Grusch and his alleged informants are full of shit. My best guess is that he knows perfectly well that they are, and that he also knows perfectly well that anybody in his position who actually came out and said so in so many words would not, in today's political climate, keep their job for very long. I have yet to see him say or do anything inconsistent with that assessment.
posted by flabdablet at 3:43 AM on August 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
“hey guys, we’ve got 40-odd people telling us that government officials and defence contractors are involved in illegal activities going on outside of congressional oversight, using misappropriated funds, with retaliation against whistleblowers, and they’ve been providing classified evidence to the inspectors general and the congressional intel committees for the past couple of years. think we should take a quick look?”
Bait box needs more ice.
posted by flabdablet at 3:55 AM on August 9, 2023
Bait box needs more ice.
posted by flabdablet at 3:55 AM on August 9, 2023
Kirkpatrick is well placed to know whether or not Grusch and his alleged informants are full of shit. My best guess is that he knows perfectly well that they are, and that he also knows perfectly well that anybody in his position who actually came out and said so in so many words would not, in today's political climate, keep their job for very long. I have yet to see him say or do anything inconsistent with that assessment.
the lack of known inconsistencies with a hypothesis indicates that the hypothesis is possible? interesting, where have i heard that before…
kirkpatrick is well placed to know if grusch et al are full of shit because he’s able to follow up on their information, to determine whether eg 40 other people are saying the same thing, whether access to information appears to have been denied to investigators and if so why, etc. the point at issue is whether he did in fact follow up.
incidentally, slightly odd to see kirkpatrick now being characterised as a sober and risk-averse scientist concerned only with verifiable facts, when he’s rage-posting linkedin criticisms of congress and a whistleblower during an active whistleblower investigation, and has previously co-authored a paper with avi loeb hypothesising that anomalous uaps could be probes from an alien mothership (which might resemble oumuamua!). given previous reference to how an association with loeb undermines credibility, plus the repeated dismissals (by you and others) of those who hypothesise that some uaps could in theory have something to do with aliens, i’m excited to learn why it’s different when kirkpatrick does it.
Bait box needs more ice.
have you noticed how your retreats from substantive responses tend to correlate with points that undermine your position? admittedly we’ll need more data to determine causation…
posted by inire at 4:47 AM on August 9, 2023
the lack of known inconsistencies with a hypothesis indicates that the hypothesis is possible? interesting, where have i heard that before…
kirkpatrick is well placed to know if grusch et al are full of shit because he’s able to follow up on their information, to determine whether eg 40 other people are saying the same thing, whether access to information appears to have been denied to investigators and if so why, etc. the point at issue is whether he did in fact follow up.
incidentally, slightly odd to see kirkpatrick now being characterised as a sober and risk-averse scientist concerned only with verifiable facts, when he’s rage-posting linkedin criticisms of congress and a whistleblower during an active whistleblower investigation, and has previously co-authored a paper with avi loeb hypothesising that anomalous uaps could be probes from an alien mothership (which might resemble oumuamua!). given previous reference to how an association with loeb undermines credibility, plus the repeated dismissals (by you and others) of those who hypothesise that some uaps could in theory have something to do with aliens, i’m excited to learn why it’s different when kirkpatrick does it.
Bait box needs more ice.
have you noticed how your retreats from substantive responses tend to correlate with points that undermine your position? admittedly we’ll need more data to determine causation…
posted by inire at 4:47 AM on August 9, 2023
the lack of known inconsistencies with a hypothesis indicates that the hypothesis is possible?
Yes, that's a property of falsifiable hypotheses.
slightly odd to see kirkpatrick now being characterised as a sober and risk-averse scientist concerned only with verifiable facts
Compared to Grusch, Fravor and Graves, Kirkpatrick is manifestly all of those things.
co-authored a paper with avi loeb hypothesising that anomalous uaps could be probes from an alien mothership
Did you actually read that paper? I just did. The two voices are quite distinct. I can almost hear Kirkpatrick trying to calm Loeb down.
Here's the abstract:
Would I prefer that AARO was run by somebody with less Loeb stank on them? Absolutely. Am I glad that by all appearances it is not currently run by a fool as wilfully credulous as Grusch? Absolutely also.
have you noticed how your retreats from substantive responses tend to correlate with points that undermine your position?
No.
Have you noticed how frequently I respond to overcooked horseshit with no more than the derision it deserves?
admittedly we’ll need more data to determine causation
Maybe you could get Avi Loeb to collab on a paper about it.
posted by flabdablet at 6:09 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yes, that's a property of falsifiable hypotheses.
slightly odd to see kirkpatrick now being characterised as a sober and risk-averse scientist concerned only with verifiable facts
Compared to Grusch, Fravor and Graves, Kirkpatrick is manifestly all of those things.
co-authored a paper with avi loeb hypothesising that anomalous uaps could be probes from an alien mothership
Did you actually read that paper? I just did. The two voices are quite distinct. I can almost hear Kirkpatrick trying to calm Loeb down.
Here's the abstract:
We derive physical constraints on interpretations of “highly maneuverable” Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) based on standard physics and known forms of matter and radiation. In particular, we show that the friction of UAP with the surrounding air or water is expected to generate a bright optical fireball, ionization shell and tail - implying radio signatures. The fireball luminosity scales with inferred distance to the 5th power. Radar cross-section scales similarly to meteor head echoes as the square of the effective radius of the sphere surrounding the object, while the radar cross-section of the resulting ionization tail scales linearly with the radius of the ionization cylinder. The lack of all these signatures could imply inaccurate distance measurements (and hence derived velocity) for single site sensors without a range gate capability.Here's the conclusion:
The considerations in this paper imply a useful limit on observations of UAP which bound the hypothetical explanations and can support limitations on interpretations of data. For example, one of the most common sets of data within the military holdings comes from FLIR (forward looking infrared) pods. These sensors provide an accurate resolved image of relative thermal measurements across the scene. Typical UAP sightings are too far away to get a highly resolved image of the object and determination of the object’s motion is limited by the lack of range data. The range is usually estimated using the flight dynamics of the platform and some fixed points in the scene - if either are available. The error in estimating the range gives rise to a significant variation in the calculated velocity and is subject to human bias and error. Claims of objects exceeding the transonic to supersonic range should be evaluated against the above known physics of ionization, radar reflectivity, temperature, sonic booms, and fireballs (Loeb 2022b). All of which can more effectively and accurately bound the velocity, and hence drive the range calculation. This will, in turn, when matched with the specifics of the sensor, allow for better estimates of the size, shape, and mass of the object in question.Notably absent from either the abstract or the conclusion: any suggestion that extraterrestrial technology somehow gets a hall pass from being expected to behave consistently with very basic physics. But of course the It's Aliens fanbois are going to ignore all that and cherry-pick the gratuitous, speculative flights of fancy that Loeb has been attempting to citation-boost to seriousness for decades (excerpt from harvard & aliens & crackpots: a disambiguation of Avi Loeb, acollierastro, YouTube, 1h6m37s).
Would I prefer that AARO was run by somebody with less Loeb stank on them? Absolutely. Am I glad that by all appearances it is not currently run by a fool as wilfully credulous as Grusch? Absolutely also.
have you noticed how your retreats from substantive responses tend to correlate with points that undermine your position?
No.
Have you noticed how frequently I respond to overcooked horseshit with no more than the derision it deserves?
admittedly we’ll need more data to determine causation
Maybe you could get Avi Loeb to collab on a paper about it.
posted by flabdablet at 6:09 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yes, that's a property of falsifiable hypotheses.
of course. such as the hypothesis that the information provided by 40-odd witnesses (and grusch) has prompted legislation and ongoing investigations because it is sufficiently substantive and credible to be seriously concerning, rather than numerous senators, representatives, inspectors general and other officials having simultaneously lost their minds. and yet that hypothesis, despite not being inconsistent with what we can see, is apparently wildly implausible..?
Compared to Grusch, Fravor and Graves, Kirkpatrick is manifestly all of those things.
compared to non-scientists, he is indeed a scientist. the more relevant point, if seeking to base an argument on his personal qualities, is how those qualities stack up objectively (or at least to others in the same category), not how they compare to people not in the same category. and i haven’t seen any other scientists calling a whistleblower a liar on linkedin in the middle of an active whistleblower investigation. (admittedly i don’t spend much time on linkedin.)
as to the paper, i did indeed read it (it’s very short) and noted - as you did not - that it entirely relates to the prospect of uaps being extraterrestrial probes, as a possibility that should be taken seriously and subject to analysis. given your previous position that “Positing "non human intelligence" as a credible alternative to the well documented human capacity for self-deception is the worst kind of wishful thinking”, and your dismissal of the “kind of X-Files-adjacent language” in the amendment (which deals with the same possibility), i naturally assumed that was something you might look askance at. but if you’re now happy to agree that aliens are a possibility worth examining, with the only point of contention being whether it’s reasonable to consider that more advanced civilisations might have a more advanced command of physics than we do, then i’m happy to hear you’ve changed your mind.
alternatively - notwithstanding the fact that kirkpatrick was happy to put his name to this without caveat either in the paper or publicly, and indeed was (as noted in the politico link) responsible for the paper existing in the first place, having badgered loeb to write it with him, which seems like odd behaviour for someone who thinks loeb is off his head - you can of course decide that every statement in the paper you agree with is from kirkpatrick and everything you raise an eyebrow at is from loeb.
but that would look rather a lot like motivated reasoning to avoid acknowledging any weakness in one’s perhaps not-fully-thought-through position (or, more succinctly, like cope).
posted by inire at 7:08 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
of course. such as the hypothesis that the information provided by 40-odd witnesses (and grusch) has prompted legislation and ongoing investigations because it is sufficiently substantive and credible to be seriously concerning, rather than numerous senators, representatives, inspectors general and other officials having simultaneously lost their minds. and yet that hypothesis, despite not being inconsistent with what we can see, is apparently wildly implausible..?
Compared to Grusch, Fravor and Graves, Kirkpatrick is manifestly all of those things.
compared to non-scientists, he is indeed a scientist. the more relevant point, if seeking to base an argument on his personal qualities, is how those qualities stack up objectively (or at least to others in the same category), not how they compare to people not in the same category. and i haven’t seen any other scientists calling a whistleblower a liar on linkedin in the middle of an active whistleblower investigation. (admittedly i don’t spend much time on linkedin.)
as to the paper, i did indeed read it (it’s very short) and noted - as you did not - that it entirely relates to the prospect of uaps being extraterrestrial probes, as a possibility that should be taken seriously and subject to analysis. given your previous position that “Positing "non human intelligence" as a credible alternative to the well documented human capacity for self-deception is the worst kind of wishful thinking”, and your dismissal of the “kind of X-Files-adjacent language” in the amendment (which deals with the same possibility), i naturally assumed that was something you might look askance at. but if you’re now happy to agree that aliens are a possibility worth examining, with the only point of contention being whether it’s reasonable to consider that more advanced civilisations might have a more advanced command of physics than we do, then i’m happy to hear you’ve changed your mind.
alternatively - notwithstanding the fact that kirkpatrick was happy to put his name to this without caveat either in the paper or publicly, and indeed was (as noted in the politico link) responsible for the paper existing in the first place, having badgered loeb to write it with him, which seems like odd behaviour for someone who thinks loeb is off his head - you can of course decide that every statement in the paper you agree with is from kirkpatrick and everything you raise an eyebrow at is from loeb.
but that would look rather a lot like motivated reasoning to avoid acknowledging any weakness in one’s perhaps not-fully-thought-through position (or, more succinctly, like cope).
posted by inire at 7:08 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
inire, you've posted thousands of words basically complaining that people aren't being nice enough about your conspiracy-adjacent beliefs, and perverted the philosophy of science to a degree that's basically impossible to respond to.
Please, for the love of god, go interact with some people who aren't already true believers. Re-examine your comments as if you were looking out for conspiracy apologetics. I'm sorry that we're not as accepting of the possibility of a somehow non-harmful government conspiracy as you, or whatever, but it's exhausting and somewhat tragic to watch someone bend themselves in there knots of something that has so many entry points for grifters.
The constant implications that people are somehow fooling themselves for not agreeing with you? Also not a great look! Also, not one really supported by, like, science.
posted by sagc at 7:22 AM on August 9, 2023 [7 favorites]
Please, for the love of god, go interact with some people who aren't already true believers. Re-examine your comments as if you were looking out for conspiracy apologetics. I'm sorry that we're not as accepting of the possibility of a somehow non-harmful government conspiracy as you, or whatever, but it's exhausting and somewhat tragic to watch someone bend themselves in there knots of something that has so many entry points for grifters.
The constant implications that people are somehow fooling themselves for not agreeing with you? Also not a great look! Also, not one really supported by, like, science.
posted by sagc at 7:22 AM on August 9, 2023 [7 favorites]
I like the implication that argument from authority is “science!” and not just argument from authority.
posted by Artw at 7:27 AM on August 9, 2023
posted by Artw at 7:27 AM on August 9, 2023
OK, so here's my question:
When this, as it inevitably will, produces nothing at all but yet more bigfoot level blurry photos and breathless bullshit from Skinwalker Ranch type scammers, will anyone here admit they were wrong and that their dogged insistence on validating, encouraging, and granting credibility to a dangerous and harmful conspiracy theory was wrong?
Cuz I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if any strong evidence for aliens pops up.
Or in the opinion of the credulous people on this thread will this have always been a good idea even if it turns up absolutely nothing at all? That empowering and encouraging dangerous and harmful conspiracy thinking is a price worth paying to get a few glimpses of FLIR blobs that turn out to have mundane explanations?
And, I guess more generally, what outcome do you expect from this?
People in this thread keep repeatedly saying that it's very unfair and wrong for me to say that they're looking for aliens. OK. So that's clearly not what you believe will be the result of giving this huge gift to the conspiracy scammers.
So what is?
What is the outcome you predict that justifies the price of granting a fuckton of power and prestige to some evil scammers pushing a dangerous conspiracy?
posted by sotonohito at 7:31 AM on August 9, 2023
When this, as it inevitably will, produces nothing at all but yet more bigfoot level blurry photos and breathless bullshit from Skinwalker Ranch type scammers, will anyone here admit they were wrong and that their dogged insistence on validating, encouraging, and granting credibility to a dangerous and harmful conspiracy theory was wrong?
Cuz I'll be the first to admit I was wrong if any strong evidence for aliens pops up.
Or in the opinion of the credulous people on this thread will this have always been a good idea even if it turns up absolutely nothing at all? That empowering and encouraging dangerous and harmful conspiracy thinking is a price worth paying to get a few glimpses of FLIR blobs that turn out to have mundane explanations?
And, I guess more generally, what outcome do you expect from this?
People in this thread keep repeatedly saying that it's very unfair and wrong for me to say that they're looking for aliens. OK. So that's clearly not what you believe will be the result of giving this huge gift to the conspiracy scammers.
So what is?
What is the outcome you predict that justifies the price of granting a fuckton of power and prestige to some evil scammers pushing a dangerous conspiracy?
posted by sotonohito at 7:31 AM on August 9, 2023
inire, you've posted thousands of words basically complaining that people aren't being nice enough about your conspiracy-adjacent beliefs, and perverted the philosophy of science to a degree that's basically impossible to respond to.
please do not kink-shame the philosophy of science.
Or in the opinion of the credulous people on this thread will this have always been a good idea even if it turns up absolutely nothing at all?
not necessarily. it depends whether the costs outweigh the benefits. if, say, we get proof that grusch and co have made this all up, and the amendment results in nothing beyond what we already have, and a bunch of ufo true believers decide that they want to make the q-anon comparisons in this thread slightly less embarrassing and storm the capitol, this will have been (in the end) a bad idea. if, on the other hand, grusch et al turn out to have mistaken mundane defence contractor fraud for aliens, and we get some higher quality (if still inconclusive) multisensor imagery of uaps disclosed, at the cost of a lot of hot air about how all of this has been terribly bad for science, i think that’s probably worth it.
posted by inire at 7:44 AM on August 9, 2023
please do not kink-shame the philosophy of science.
Or in the opinion of the credulous people on this thread will this have always been a good idea even if it turns up absolutely nothing at all?
not necessarily. it depends whether the costs outweigh the benefits. if, say, we get proof that grusch and co have made this all up, and the amendment results in nothing beyond what we already have, and a bunch of ufo true believers decide that they want to make the q-anon comparisons in this thread slightly less embarrassing and storm the capitol, this will have been (in the end) a bad idea. if, on the other hand, grusch et al turn out to have mistaken mundane defence contractor fraud for aliens, and we get some higher quality (if still inconclusive) multisensor imagery of uaps disclosed, at the cost of a lot of hot air about how all of this has been terribly bad for science, i think that’s probably worth it.
posted by inire at 7:44 AM on August 9, 2023
To clarify, are you of the position That empowering UFO conspiracy thinking is a high price, but one that is acceptable, or that empowering UFO conspiracy thinking is essentially cost free and my concerns are preposterous? Or some third thing I've not considered?
Additionally, are you taking the position That if some unidentified OBSERVATIONS actually are the Boeing SuperMegaSercet Jet (or whatever) that the military is going to admit that and say they'd been keeping it secret from pilots because opsec but shrug now it's public and China gets a confirmation that it exists?
I'd also like to clarify that I don't think this is bad for science, but bad for human survival and the continuation of democracy in America.
posted by sotonohito at 8:01 AM on August 9, 2023
Additionally, are you taking the position That if some unidentified OBSERVATIONS actually are the Boeing SuperMegaSercet Jet (or whatever) that the military is going to admit that and say they'd been keeping it secret from pilots because opsec but shrug now it's public and China gets a confirmation that it exists?
I'd also like to clarify that I don't think this is bad for science, but bad for human survival and the continuation of democracy in America.
posted by sotonohito at 8:01 AM on August 9, 2023
i did indeed read it (it’s very short) and noted - as you did not - that it entirely relates to the prospect of uaps being extraterrestrial probes, as a possibility that should be taken seriously and subject to analysis.
It does if you cherry-pick the flights of fancy and completely ignore both the abstract and the conclusion in exactly the way that I predicted an It's Aliens fanboi would do.
posted by flabdablet at 8:17 AM on August 9, 2023
It does if you cherry-pick the flights of fancy and completely ignore both the abstract and the conclusion in exactly the way that I predicted an It's Aliens fanboi would do.
posted by flabdablet at 8:17 AM on August 9, 2023
It does if you cherry-pick the flights of fancy and completely ignore both the abstract and the conclusion
can no longer tell if this is a bit, but on the assumption it’s just lack of effort… as to how much of the paper relates to the prospect of uaps being extraterrestrial probes:
- every paragraph of the introduction discusses the idea of artificial interstellar objects that release probes, oumuamua as an interstellar object that contributed to inspiring this hypothesis, or the prospect of some uaps being of extraterrestrial origin.
- the second section is titled ‘the extraterrestrial possibility’, and continues discussing the topics raised in the introduction.
- the third section is titled ‘propulsion methods’, and consists of technical discussion as to how such probes might travel, and what the consequences of those propulsion methods would be.
- this leads directly on to the fourth and fifth sections, which address optical emissions and other observable signatures that would be expected to arise from “any supersonic motion by such objects through the earth’s atmosphere”. then you get to the conclusion - it’s a short paper.
given the above, suggestions that it’s ‘cherrypicking’ to describe the paper as being about the prospect of extraterrestrial uaps are nonsensical.
the fact that the abstract and conclusion that bookend these sections do not include the words ‘alien’ or ‘extraterrestrial’ doesn’t somehow mean the paper is secretly about something else - the conclusion draws conclusions from the preceding sections (entirely relating to the prospect of uaps being extraterrestrial probes), and the abstract is an abstract of a paper that is entirely about that prospect.
if you think they somehow relate to an entirely different topic, happy to hear why.
posted by inire at 9:38 AM on August 9, 2023
can no longer tell if this is a bit, but on the assumption it’s just lack of effort… as to how much of the paper relates to the prospect of uaps being extraterrestrial probes:
- every paragraph of the introduction discusses the idea of artificial interstellar objects that release probes, oumuamua as an interstellar object that contributed to inspiring this hypothesis, or the prospect of some uaps being of extraterrestrial origin.
- the second section is titled ‘the extraterrestrial possibility’, and continues discussing the topics raised in the introduction.
- the third section is titled ‘propulsion methods’, and consists of technical discussion as to how such probes might travel, and what the consequences of those propulsion methods would be.
- this leads directly on to the fourth and fifth sections, which address optical emissions and other observable signatures that would be expected to arise from “any supersonic motion by such objects through the earth’s atmosphere”. then you get to the conclusion - it’s a short paper.
given the above, suggestions that it’s ‘cherrypicking’ to describe the paper as being about the prospect of extraterrestrial uaps are nonsensical.
the fact that the abstract and conclusion that bookend these sections do not include the words ‘alien’ or ‘extraterrestrial’ doesn’t somehow mean the paper is secretly about something else - the conclusion draws conclusions from the preceding sections (entirely relating to the prospect of uaps being extraterrestrial probes), and the abstract is an abstract of a paper that is entirely about that prospect.
if you think they somehow relate to an entirely different topic, happy to hear why.
posted by inire at 9:38 AM on August 9, 2023
oh my god the number of times something is mentioned is not a good way to analyze things
words have content
posted by sagc at 9:50 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
words have content
posted by sagc at 9:50 AM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
words like… ‘cherrypicking’..?
feel free to read the paper and let me know what you think it’s about if not the prospect of extraterrestrial uaps. it’s half a dozen pages and mostly non-technical.
posted by inire at 9:56 AM on August 9, 2023
feel free to read the paper and let me know what you think it’s about if not the prospect of extraterrestrial uaps. it’s half a dozen pages and mostly non-technical.
posted by inire at 9:56 AM on August 9, 2023
Not to get into another argument about whether up is down or black is white, but It appears to be about supposedly hypersonic UAPs and how they do not show characteristics you would expect if they indeed hypersonic, and this might be down to inaccurate distance measurements?
Basically the apparently spooky thing might just be measured wrong?
posted by Artw at 10:39 AM on August 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Basically the apparently spooky thing might just be measured wrong?
posted by Artw at 10:39 AM on August 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
I think we will find that there are some instances where drones from hobbyists /military spotters and foreign adversaries were engaged in previously undetected / in-investigated surveillance of US military maneuvers and exercises.
More Chinese balloons and some small drones operated by someone working for China (they might not even know they are working for China). I mean how hard would it be to find someone to go fly a small drone around and take sone pictures of some planes.
posted by interogative mood at 10:51 AM on August 9, 2023
More Chinese balloons and some small drones operated by someone working for China (they might not even know they are working for China). I mean how hard would it be to find someone to go fly a small drone around and take sone pictures of some planes.
posted by interogative mood at 10:51 AM on August 9, 2023
Sections 1, 2 and 3 of that paper are absolutely run-of-the-mill Loeb handwaving and contribute nothing of substance, which is presumably why the only nod in their direction in the abstract is the scare quotes around the words “highly maneuverable”. Critically: those sections could have been left out entirely without altering the paper's conclusion in any way whatsoever. Anybody even slightly familiar with Loeb's standard modus operandi would instantly recognize that those sections are in there solely to boost Loeb's own reference counts.
What the paper is about is detectable physical consequences from very high speed movement through the atmosphere, and how either detection or failure to detect those consequences puts limits on how fast any object putatively detected could have been moving.
So yes, deciding that the fluffy, inconsequential parts are what the paper is about absolutely counts as cherrypicking. That one of the authors chose, as is his usual practice, to whip the cherries in question into a fine froth and present them in the form of a delicious clickbait soufflé doesn't alter that.
posted by flabdablet at 10:55 AM on August 9, 2023
What the paper is about is detectable physical consequences from very high speed movement through the atmosphere, and how either detection or failure to detect those consequences puts limits on how fast any object putatively detected could have been moving.
So yes, deciding that the fluffy, inconsequential parts are what the paper is about absolutely counts as cherrypicking. That one of the authors chose, as is his usual practice, to whip the cherries in question into a fine froth and present them in the form of a delicious clickbait soufflé doesn't alter that.
posted by flabdablet at 10:55 AM on August 9, 2023
Basically the apparently spooky thing might just be measured wrong?
Or that the apparently spooky thing might have had its distance guessed wrong, what with FLIR pods having no ranging capability and all.
posted by flabdablet at 11:01 AM on August 9, 2023
Or that the apparently spooky thing might have had its distance guessed wrong, what with FLIR pods having no ranging capability and all.
posted by flabdablet at 11:01 AM on August 9, 2023
To me it seems like you don’t need all the bits about ionization if it’s just “if you get weird numbers and one of your variables is a guess it’s probably the guess that is wrong”, but that wouldn’t be a very fancy paper.
posted by Artw at 11:23 AM on August 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:23 AM on August 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
What the paper is about is detectable physical consequences from very high speed movement through the atmosphere, and how either detection or failure to detect those consequences puts limits on how fast any object putatively detected could have been moving.
detectable physical consequences from very high speed movement of…? ah yes - “such devices”, meaning the hypothesised extraterrestrial probes.
you can insist all you like that the paper isn’t about the prospect of extraterrestrial probes, or that only the bits you don’t like are about that, or that kirkpatrick somehow forgot to object to loeb putting lots of mentions of aliens into a paper that was co-authored at kirkpatrick’s prompting.
but we’re now at a point where you’ve contorted yourself into arguing that we need to focus only on the abstraction and conclusion, ignore most of the rest of the paper, and read the remaining sections out of the context in which they’re presented, and somehow i’m the one cherrypicking?
i’m starting to understand why you hesitate to engage substantively. i mean, you could have just wielded the beloved occam’s razor and said that the paper’s about what it appears to be about (the prospect of extraterrestrial probes and how those might be expected to present if travelling atmospherically), and that you think it was a misjudgement for kirkpatrick to push loeb into co-authoring this paper - but you seem to be unwilling to acknowledge any further criticism of kirkpatrick (presumably because that would undermine your previous position relying on his presence to dismiss grusch et al..?), so we end up with this spectacle. i’d stick to the wisecracks.
posted by inire at 11:51 AM on August 9, 2023
detectable physical consequences from very high speed movement of…? ah yes - “such devices”, meaning the hypothesised extraterrestrial probes.
you can insist all you like that the paper isn’t about the prospect of extraterrestrial probes, or that only the bits you don’t like are about that, or that kirkpatrick somehow forgot to object to loeb putting lots of mentions of aliens into a paper that was co-authored at kirkpatrick’s prompting.
but we’re now at a point where you’ve contorted yourself into arguing that we need to focus only on the abstraction and conclusion, ignore most of the rest of the paper, and read the remaining sections out of the context in which they’re presented, and somehow i’m the one cherrypicking?
i’m starting to understand why you hesitate to engage substantively. i mean, you could have just wielded the beloved occam’s razor and said that the paper’s about what it appears to be about (the prospect of extraterrestrial probes and how those might be expected to present if travelling atmospherically), and that you think it was a misjudgement for kirkpatrick to push loeb into co-authoring this paper - but you seem to be unwilling to acknowledge any further criticism of kirkpatrick (presumably because that would undermine your previous position relying on his presence to dismiss grusch et al..?), so we end up with this spectacle. i’d stick to the wisecracks.
posted by inire at 11:51 AM on August 9, 2023
"about the possibility" doesn't do jack shit for your point when the conclusions drawn are "this possibility does not pan out".
Again, words and their meanings are moderately important; the sophistry you're engaging in is embarassing.
posted by sagc at 12:02 PM on August 9, 2023
Again, words and their meanings are moderately important; the sophistry you're engaging in is embarassing.
posted by sagc at 12:02 PM on August 9, 2023
Some new level of incredibly boring logically flawed pedantry has been reached, possible only achievable by a hyper dimensional hypothesis.
posted by Artw at 12:16 PM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 12:16 PM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
I do think that collaborating with Loeb reflects poorly on Kirkpatrick's taste in co-authors.
i’m starting to understand why you hesitate to engage substantively.
I could tell you exactly why that is, but only in a SCIF.
posted by flabdablet at 12:50 PM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
i’m starting to understand why you hesitate to engage substantively.
I could tell you exactly why that is, but only in a SCIF.
posted by flabdablet at 12:50 PM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Intercept coming in with the hot goss.
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 1:25 PM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by joeyjoejoejr at 1:25 PM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Harvard, Aliens and Crackpots: a disambiguation of Avi Loeb.
The Skeptics’ Guide podcast talks about Avi Loeb’s claim that big science is sidelining him.
Avi Loeb claims that material recovered from sea floor could be from an extra-terrestrial spacecraft. (NyTimes)
The Skeptics’ Guide podcast talks about Avi Loeb’s claim that big science is sidelining him.
Avi Loeb claims that material recovered from sea floor could be from an extra-terrestrial spacecraft. (NyTimes)
“People are sick of hearing about Avi Loeb’s wild claims,” said Steve Desch, an astrophysicist at Arizona State University. “It’s polluting good science — conflating the good science we do with this ridiculous sensationalism and sucking all the oxygen out of the room.”posted by interogative mood at 1:27 PM on August 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Intercept coming in with the hot goss.
So asides from the mental health/substance abuse and threat issues, there’s this…
“... The sheriff has confirmed it did not come from him. The only other place that had this information is the intelligence community, Dave’s personal files inside the intelligence community, where quite properly, when anybody is security assist, things like this have to be looked at, and somebody inside the intelligence community leaked it.”
Coulthart went on to compare the purported leak to Richard Nixon’s attempts to discredit Daniel Ellsberg, who shared the Pentagon Papers with the New York Times.
“I think there should be an inquiry into the circumstances of how sensitive records pertaining to a decorated combat veteran’s file found their way to a journalist not through the proper channels,” Coulthart said. “This could’ve been requested under FOI, as is normal, but the county sheriff has confirmed that did not happen.”
In an interview Wednesday morning, Burchett repeated the false claim that Grusch’s medical records had been leaked, going as far as to say that “someone needs to lose their job.”
The records were not confidential, medical, nor leaked. They are publicly available law enforcement records obtained under a routine Virginia FOIA request to the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office and provided by the office’s FOIA coordinator. Copies of The Intercept’s correspondence with the sheriff’s office are being published with this story.
Which raises some questions about whether other claims of high level persecution are similar fabrications/misinformed guesses/lies.
posted by Artw at 1:48 PM on August 9, 2023
So asides from the mental health/substance abuse and threat issues, there’s this…
“... The sheriff has confirmed it did not come from him. The only other place that had this information is the intelligence community, Dave’s personal files inside the intelligence community, where quite properly, when anybody is security assist, things like this have to be looked at, and somebody inside the intelligence community leaked it.”
Coulthart went on to compare the purported leak to Richard Nixon’s attempts to discredit Daniel Ellsberg, who shared the Pentagon Papers with the New York Times.
“I think there should be an inquiry into the circumstances of how sensitive records pertaining to a decorated combat veteran’s file found their way to a journalist not through the proper channels,” Coulthart said. “This could’ve been requested under FOI, as is normal, but the county sheriff has confirmed that did not happen.”
In an interview Wednesday morning, Burchett repeated the false claim that Grusch’s medical records had been leaked, going as far as to say that “someone needs to lose their job.”
The records were not confidential, medical, nor leaked. They are publicly available law enforcement records obtained under a routine Virginia FOIA request to the Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office and provided by the office’s FOIA coordinator. Copies of The Intercept’s correspondence with the sheriff’s office are being published with this story.
Which raises some questions about whether other claims of high level persecution are similar fabrications/misinformed guesses/lies.
posted by Artw at 1:48 PM on August 9, 2023
Maybe his superiors stuck him over in the UAP Task Force and later onto AARO as a way to let him stay in the military and retire with better benefits. Get him off the really secret stuff and doing an easy job. Of course he was in a bit of a vulnerable state mentally so when he showed up in the office with members of the UFO cult, he probably got pulled right into it all.
posted by interogative mood at 2:29 PM on August 9, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 2:29 PM on August 9, 2023
sounds like coulthart jumped the gun on this. grusch seems to have been told by the sheriff’s office that they hadn’t released any information on him (unclear whether that was an error?), so coulthart assumed that was correct and the information must have come from intel sources. (no idea whether medical info is supposed to be redacted from foia’d law enforcement records - if so, that might also be a factor in assuming this must have been an intel leak.)
although i note klippenstein has now referred to intel sources giving him tips to dig into grusch’s law enforcement history, so perhaps coulthart wasn’t so far off!
more broadly, the fact he’s a veteran who’s struggled with ptsd, suicidal ideation, alcoholism, etc. doesn’t make him especially unusual, and i’d hesitate to say that the fact of having had those issues permanently undermines one’s credibility.
however:
- what does make him more unusual is that he appears to have kept his clearance after the 2014 and 2018 incidents. unclear whether that speaks to his ability to compartmentalise and perform at work while struggling at home, the effectiveness of his recovery, his support from supervisors, a tendency to close ranks and protect colleagues, and / or other factors. i imagine there’s an interesting story there, although we may not get to hear it.
- what would undermine his credibility (for our purposes) is if, not to put too fine a point on it, his ptsd and alcohol abuse meant he was a complete wreck during the period in which he was dealing with the things covered in his allegations (and / or is still in that state today). he’s said he started working on uaps in 2019, so anywhere from a few months to a year after the 2018 call. maybe enough time to get it sufficiently together (at least at work), maybe not. we’d probably need to hear from family, colleagues, etc. at that time to know more.
questions of timing aside, the other key question is how far current events rest on his personal credibility. as pointed out repeatedly above, his testimony is largely second-hand, about information provided to him by others. he’s been the public face, and (presumably) the initial liaison for those others re the ig and intel committee investigations, and he’s said to have passed on classified information he received, but he’s ultimately pointing to his sources as the people with direct knowledge.
so if his credibility is undermined because he turns out to have been a wreck during the relevant period, what would that mean in practice? depends how many of his purported sources exist and speak to investigators, and what they say. assuming that he hasn’t just made up the bulk of his sources and / or invented part or all of their statements - which we can’t rule out, but you’d expect that to have become apparent earlier in the investigative process - their credibility (and evidence) is much more relevant than his.
what his credibility could affect is the conclusions he drew from their evidence - eg if it turned out that his sources were legit, but 99% of them provided information that could fit a range of explanations, and he (not thinking straight) jumped to unwarranted conclusions about how this must be aliens. but ultimately that comes back to his sources - if a lot of them are saying “it’s aliens!”, it’s their credibility that matters, much more than his.
posted by inire at 1:40 AM on August 10, 2023
although i note klippenstein has now referred to intel sources giving him tips to dig into grusch’s law enforcement history, so perhaps coulthart wasn’t so far off!
more broadly, the fact he’s a veteran who’s struggled with ptsd, suicidal ideation, alcoholism, etc. doesn’t make him especially unusual, and i’d hesitate to say that the fact of having had those issues permanently undermines one’s credibility.
however:
- what does make him more unusual is that he appears to have kept his clearance after the 2014 and 2018 incidents. unclear whether that speaks to his ability to compartmentalise and perform at work while struggling at home, the effectiveness of his recovery, his support from supervisors, a tendency to close ranks and protect colleagues, and / or other factors. i imagine there’s an interesting story there, although we may not get to hear it.
- what would undermine his credibility (for our purposes) is if, not to put too fine a point on it, his ptsd and alcohol abuse meant he was a complete wreck during the period in which he was dealing with the things covered in his allegations (and / or is still in that state today). he’s said he started working on uaps in 2019, so anywhere from a few months to a year after the 2018 call. maybe enough time to get it sufficiently together (at least at work), maybe not. we’d probably need to hear from family, colleagues, etc. at that time to know more.
questions of timing aside, the other key question is how far current events rest on his personal credibility. as pointed out repeatedly above, his testimony is largely second-hand, about information provided to him by others. he’s been the public face, and (presumably) the initial liaison for those others re the ig and intel committee investigations, and he’s said to have passed on classified information he received, but he’s ultimately pointing to his sources as the people with direct knowledge.
so if his credibility is undermined because he turns out to have been a wreck during the relevant period, what would that mean in practice? depends how many of his purported sources exist and speak to investigators, and what they say. assuming that he hasn’t just made up the bulk of his sources and / or invented part or all of their statements - which we can’t rule out, but you’d expect that to have become apparent earlier in the investigative process - their credibility (and evidence) is much more relevant than his.
what his credibility could affect is the conclusions he drew from their evidence - eg if it turned out that his sources were legit, but 99% of them provided information that could fit a range of explanations, and he (not thinking straight) jumped to unwarranted conclusions about how this must be aliens. but ultimately that comes back to his sources - if a lot of them are saying “it’s aliens!”, it’s their credibility that matters, much more than his.
posted by inire at 1:40 AM on August 10, 2023
Would you agree that there are some claims so extraordinary that no degree of credibility is sufficient to just take a person's word for it and that some sort of evidence must be presented before the claim is believed?
I ask because while I find Grusch to be laughlyably non-credible, specifically I find his Trump laywer style of making wild and outragerous claims in the news then walking those claims back and suddenly getting coy and only hinting at things when under oath, I don't think his personal credibility is relevant.
The claim that intelligent aliens have managed to build a starship and then either crash or try to hide and fail, is IMO so extraordinary that it requires rock solid evidence to be taken seriously.
It doesn't matter if hte person making the claim is Grusch, or anyone else up to and including people for whom I have a deep personal respect. The claim is on the same level of being so close to impossible as to be basically impossible that it falls into the same category as claiming the tooth fairy really does take children's teeth and leave quarters. I can be convinced that it's true, but no one has enough credibility for me to just believe it on their say so.
I should also note that we don't know who Grusch's suppoed sources are, for all we know he's making the whole thing up and/or reporting what the voices in his head say, so the credibility of unknown people who are only reported to exist by Grusch himself isn't really an issue. If we know who he was talking about their credibility could be a valid topic, but he's keeping that secret too.
And that's the problem with the whole stupid affair and why I and so many others are so contemptous and dismissive.
We have people making truly extraordinary claims and then when we say "huh, sounds interesting what's the evidence" they go all "lulz I could tell you but then I'd have to shoot you cuz its SOOOOO super mega ultra uber top secret no one except very cool and very legal people like me are allowed to know about it, sorree! Just believe me bro!"
Which is what we keep circling back to.
You want us to just believe that all this X-files crap is real because Grusch et al say so, and you seem to think it's very unscientific and anti-skeptical for us not to believe it on their say so.
What I don't understand is why you keep claiming that we're not being properly rigorous and scientific and skeptical for committing the dire sin of wanting evidence before we believe someone's claim that Santa Claus gave him a perpetual motion machine while travelin in Dr. Who's TARDIS?
posted by sotonohito at 6:51 AM on August 10, 2023 [6 favorites]
I ask because while I find Grusch to be laughlyably non-credible, specifically I find his Trump laywer style of making wild and outragerous claims in the news then walking those claims back and suddenly getting coy and only hinting at things when under oath, I don't think his personal credibility is relevant.
The claim that intelligent aliens have managed to build a starship and then either crash or try to hide and fail, is IMO so extraordinary that it requires rock solid evidence to be taken seriously.
It doesn't matter if hte person making the claim is Grusch, or anyone else up to and including people for whom I have a deep personal respect. The claim is on the same level of being so close to impossible as to be basically impossible that it falls into the same category as claiming the tooth fairy really does take children's teeth and leave quarters. I can be convinced that it's true, but no one has enough credibility for me to just believe it on their say so.
I should also note that we don't know who Grusch's suppoed sources are, for all we know he's making the whole thing up and/or reporting what the voices in his head say, so the credibility of unknown people who are only reported to exist by Grusch himself isn't really an issue. If we know who he was talking about their credibility could be a valid topic, but he's keeping that secret too.
And that's the problem with the whole stupid affair and why I and so many others are so contemptous and dismissive.
We have people making truly extraordinary claims and then when we say "huh, sounds interesting what's the evidence" they go all "lulz I could tell you but then I'd have to shoot you cuz its SOOOOO super mega ultra uber top secret no one except very cool and very legal people like me are allowed to know about it, sorree! Just believe me bro!"
Which is what we keep circling back to.
You want us to just believe that all this X-files crap is real because Grusch et al say so, and you seem to think it's very unscientific and anti-skeptical for us not to believe it on their say so.
What I don't understand is why you keep claiming that we're not being properly rigorous and scientific and skeptical for committing the dire sin of wanting evidence before we believe someone's claim that Santa Claus gave him a perpetual motion machine while travelin in Dr. Who's TARDIS?
posted by sotonohito at 6:51 AM on August 10, 2023 [6 favorites]
although i note klippenstein has now referred to intel sources giving him tips to dig into grusch’s law enforcement history, so perhaps coulthart wasn’t so far off!
Listening to this:
1) Klippenstein reached out for tips on Grusch’s background
2) he got a lot back, most of it negative, none positive. He says he would have run anything positive.
3) multiple people indicated that he should look into Grusch’s encounters with law enforcement, which he did.
4) The degree to which these tipsters are spooky intel people is exactly the same degree rot which Grusch is a spooky intel person, on account of that being the field he worked in.
posted by Artw at 9:04 AM on August 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Listening to this:
1) Klippenstein reached out for tips on Grusch’s background
2) he got a lot back, most of it negative, none positive. He says he would have run anything positive.
3) multiple people indicated that he should look into Grusch’s encounters with law enforcement, which he did.
4) The degree to which these tipsters are spooky intel people is exactly the same degree rot which Grusch is a spooky intel person, on account of that being the field he worked in.
posted by Artw at 9:04 AM on August 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
John Greenewald, Jr.
@blackvaultcom
@blackvaultcom
Here is the X Space that has become the talk of the social media town.posted by flabdablet at 9:59 AM on August 10, 2023
This is the segment of @kenklippenstein and myself when he decided to join the space and conversation.
Hear for yourself exactly what was said and exactly how it was said. There are no edits in the segment.
I like the reply that that the tips are hearsay from unknown sources and therefore unreliable.
posted by Artw at 10:07 AM on August 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:07 AM on August 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
Exactly sotonohito. Until a minimum threshold of evidence is met any extraordinary claim must be treated skeptically with the assumption that it is likely the result of an error.
I’m not suggesting we don’t pursue the claims that there is evidence out there; and being with held, but until the evidence is produced I see no reason to treat these with any more merit than any other fairy tale or ghost story.
posted by interogative mood at 10:17 AM on August 10, 2023
I’m not suggesting we don’t pursue the claims that there is evidence out there; and being with held, but until the evidence is produced I see no reason to treat these with any more merit than any other fairy tale or ghost story.
posted by interogative mood at 10:17 AM on August 10, 2023
SMEAR JOB?: Journo Pressed On UFO Whistleblower Report (Breaking Points, Piped, 18m26s)
posted by flabdablet at 10:47 AM on August 10, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 10:47 AM on August 10, 2023
Watching this seamlessly slip into UFO cover up lore in real time is quite the thing.
posted by Artw at 10:49 AM on August 10, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:49 AM on August 10, 2023 [5 favorites]
Ross Coulthart, the News Nation reporter who appears to be acting as stenographer for Grusch, also has a TV show about UFOs and UFO book with a revised and expanded 2023 edition, because of course.
posted by Artw at 11:13 AM on August 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 11:13 AM on August 10, 2023 [1 favorite]
Coulthart used to be a real reporter. It's been really sad for me to watch the aliens eat his brain, even though it seems he'd already gone to the dark side.
posted by flabdablet at 11:44 AM on August 10, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 11:44 AM on August 10, 2023
Him working for PR companies on makes sense given the very PRish move of performing an Alito.
posted by Artw at 11:54 AM on August 10, 2023
posted by Artw at 11:54 AM on August 10, 2023
This whole fucking episode has been so mind numbingly stupid. I don't know why, but the hearing and the whole fiasco follow up, to this vey minute, has me unusually despairing about the state of the country. Even moreso than meltdown of half the polity over last several years. We march proudly, happily, defiantly, toward the idiocracy.
posted by 2N2222 at 9:08 PM on August 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by 2N2222 at 9:08 PM on August 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
I don't know why, but the hearing and the whole fiasco follow up, to this very minute, has me unusually despairing about the state of the country.
It's a familiar feeling.
My first real taste of it came in 2004, when the Howard Government responded to rising anti-Muslim sentiment in this country by enacting the first round of the most draconian anti-terrorism laws in Australia's history and newspaper polling showed that two thirds of the Australian public supported the security services now being entitled to lock up anybody they deemed a "terrorist suspect" and hold them incommunicado for weeks, not being required to charge them with any crime in order to justify doing that, and it being a criminal offence to tell anybody that this had happened.
That lurching, bottom-of-the-stomach realization that not only is our country run by fuckwits but largely occupied by fuckwits put me in a depressive funk that lasted for years. It got bad after the Abbott Government was elected in 2013 and really bad after the Empire followed up by electing TFG.
I can't really separate the meltdown of half the polity from this thing; to me it all looks like consequences of the same widespread unwillingness to think.
posted by flabdablet at 10:31 PM on August 10, 2023
It's a familiar feeling.
My first real taste of it came in 2004, when the Howard Government responded to rising anti-Muslim sentiment in this country by enacting the first round of the most draconian anti-terrorism laws in Australia's history and newspaper polling showed that two thirds of the Australian public supported the security services now being entitled to lock up anybody they deemed a "terrorist suspect" and hold them incommunicado for weeks, not being required to charge them with any crime in order to justify doing that, and it being a criminal offence to tell anybody that this had happened.
That lurching, bottom-of-the-stomach realization that not only is our country run by fuckwits but largely occupied by fuckwits put me in a depressive funk that lasted for years. It got bad after the Abbott Government was elected in 2013 and really bad after the Empire followed up by electing TFG.
I can't really separate the meltdown of half the polity from this thing; to me it all looks like consequences of the same widespread unwillingness to think.
posted by flabdablet at 10:31 PM on August 10, 2023
And furthermore: "I want to believe" is, to my way of thinking, amongst the most viscerally repellent and contemptible sentiments it is possible for a human being to express.
I do not want to believe. I want to understand. I wish more people felt the same way.
posted by flabdablet at 1:28 AM on August 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
I do not want to believe. I want to understand. I wish more people felt the same way.
posted by flabdablet at 1:28 AM on August 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
Would you agree that there are some claims so extraordinary that no degree of credibility is sufficient to just take a person's word for it and that some sort of evidence must be presented before the claim is believed?
certainly. but to my mind, believing a thing to be true is at one end of a spectrum, with believing it to be untrue at the other end, and varying degrees of uncertainty in between. a single person’s word won’t get us all the way to belief for an extraordinary claim, but it can form part of a collection of things that - in combination - take us a few steps away from believing the claim to be untrue into believing it to be merely unlikely. other supporting material (detailed corroborating testimony from multiple credible and independent individuals, extensive documentary evidence, a preserved alien head in a jar, etc) would be needed to take us further towards believing the claim to be true.
I should also note that we don't know who Grusch's suppoed sources are, for all we know he's making the whole thing up and/or reporting what the voices in his head say, so the credibility of unknown people who are only reported to exist by Grusch himself isn't really an issue.
that appears to be inaccurate. as mentioned in the original post and repeatedly since, rubio has stated that other individuals purporting to be first hand witnesses have come forward to the senate intel committee with allegations in line with grusch’s. no one has yet outlined who they are, how many of them there are or exactly what they’ve said, but given that they appear to be providing what purports to be corroborating (and in some cases first hand) testimony, their credibility is obviously relevant.
You want us to just believe that all this X-files crap is real because Grusch et al say so, and you seem to think it's very unscientific and anti-skeptical for us not to believe it on their say so.
you’re arguing with a figment of your imagination here. i’ve made my position perfectly clear, including to you the last time you brought this up. if you want to make up a guy to get mad at or argue with someone who’s not in this thread, feel free, but try not to confuse him with me.
What I don't understand is why you keep claiming that we're not being properly rigorous and scientific and skeptical for committing the dire sin of wanting evidence before we believe someone's claim
you’ll be relieved to hear (again) that i’m not claiming that. of course you should want evidence before going all the way to the end of the spectrum and believing an extraordinary claim to be true. what i’m claiming is that the rigorous position, based on the information available, is to be slightly less certain that the extraordinary claim is untrue.
(and also to stop saying ‘we want evidence!’ while fulminating against any process capable of producing said evidence without someone snowdening themselves, but people do seem to have stopped doing that. progress! albeit you and others still seem to be having some difficulty with the concept of classified information, so we have a way to go.)
posted by inire at 5:46 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
certainly. but to my mind, believing a thing to be true is at one end of a spectrum, with believing it to be untrue at the other end, and varying degrees of uncertainty in between. a single person’s word won’t get us all the way to belief for an extraordinary claim, but it can form part of a collection of things that - in combination - take us a few steps away from believing the claim to be untrue into believing it to be merely unlikely. other supporting material (detailed corroborating testimony from multiple credible and independent individuals, extensive documentary evidence, a preserved alien head in a jar, etc) would be needed to take us further towards believing the claim to be true.
I should also note that we don't know who Grusch's suppoed sources are, for all we know he's making the whole thing up and/or reporting what the voices in his head say, so the credibility of unknown people who are only reported to exist by Grusch himself isn't really an issue.
that appears to be inaccurate. as mentioned in the original post and repeatedly since, rubio has stated that other individuals purporting to be first hand witnesses have come forward to the senate intel committee with allegations in line with grusch’s. no one has yet outlined who they are, how many of them there are or exactly what they’ve said, but given that they appear to be providing what purports to be corroborating (and in some cases first hand) testimony, their credibility is obviously relevant.
You want us to just believe that all this X-files crap is real because Grusch et al say so, and you seem to think it's very unscientific and anti-skeptical for us not to believe it on their say so.
you’re arguing with a figment of your imagination here. i’ve made my position perfectly clear, including to you the last time you brought this up. if you want to make up a guy to get mad at or argue with someone who’s not in this thread, feel free, but try not to confuse him with me.
What I don't understand is why you keep claiming that we're not being properly rigorous and scientific and skeptical for committing the dire sin of wanting evidence before we believe someone's claim
you’ll be relieved to hear (again) that i’m not claiming that. of course you should want evidence before going all the way to the end of the spectrum and believing an extraordinary claim to be true. what i’m claiming is that the rigorous position, based on the information available, is to be slightly less certain that the extraordinary claim is untrue.
(and also to stop saying ‘we want evidence!’ while fulminating against any process capable of producing said evidence without someone snowdening themselves, but people do seem to have stopped doing that. progress! albeit you and others still seem to be having some difficulty with the concept of classified information, so we have a way to go.)
posted by inire at 5:46 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
I do not want to believe. I want to understand. I wish more people felt the same way.
good news, there’s at least two of us!
posted by inire at 5:48 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
good news, there’s at least two of us!
posted by inire at 5:48 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
We now have more evidence that Grusch is a fantasist who leaps to conclusions and makes up conspiracies in response to setbacks than we have of any claim Grusch had brought forwards whatsoever - which remains none.
posted by Artw at 6:05 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:05 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
what i’m claiming is that the rigorous position, based on the information available, is to be slightly less certain that the extraordinary claim is untrue.
This is only true in a controlled epistemological/rhetorical environment. The real world with actual consequences is not that place. Personally I find little value in taking this position outside of systems where it arbitrarily matters, like certain rules-based debating games. Which again, have nothing to do with how one assesses real truth in the world.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 6:27 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is only true in a controlled epistemological/rhetorical environment. The real world with actual consequences is not that place. Personally I find little value in taking this position outside of systems where it arbitrarily matters, like certain rules-based debating games. Which again, have nothing to do with how one assesses real truth in the world.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 6:27 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is only true in a controlled epistemological/rhetorical environment. The real world with actual consequences is not that place. Personally I find little value in taking this position outside of systems where it arbitrarily matters, like certain rules-based debating games. Which again, have nothing to do with how one assesses real truth in the world.
interesting. is the idea that in the real world, one can’t incrementally adjust one’s level of certainty about the truth of a claim in response to information or rigorously reason oneself to a position of uncertainty (which is straightforwardly false), or just that people often don’t do that in practice (which is true, but not that relevant)? or a third thing?
posted by inire at 6:45 AM on August 11, 2023
interesting. is the idea that in the real world, one can’t incrementally adjust one’s level of certainty about the truth of a claim in response to information or rigorously reason oneself to a position of uncertainty (which is straightforwardly false), or just that people often don’t do that in practice (which is true, but not that relevant)? or a third thing?
posted by inire at 6:45 AM on August 11, 2023
I find little value in taking this position outside of systems where it arbitrarily matters, like certain rules-based debating games. Which again, have nothing to do with how one assesses real truth in the world.
Yeah, that. If you want to get genuinely rigorous about it, the only claims that can actually be true are necessary (i.e. some flavour of tautology). Any contingent claim is going to depend on evidence, and evidence is by its very nature capable of being misinterpreted. Which is why hair-splitting demands to hedge every real-world truth, such as the fact that aliens have not visited and are not visiting this planet, about with qualifiers of uncertainty are entirely pointless, and when made ad nauseam are deeply annoying.
I want to understand what is real. I'm not at all interested in winning a fucking debate.
posted by flabdablet at 6:51 AM on August 11, 2023
Yeah, that. If you want to get genuinely rigorous about it, the only claims that can actually be true are necessary (i.e. some flavour of tautology). Any contingent claim is going to depend on evidence, and evidence is by its very nature capable of being misinterpreted. Which is why hair-splitting demands to hedge every real-world truth, such as the fact that aliens have not visited and are not visiting this planet, about with qualifiers of uncertainty are entirely pointless, and when made ad nauseam are deeply annoying.
I want to understand what is real. I'm not at all interested in winning a fucking debate.
posted by flabdablet at 6:51 AM on August 11, 2023
> I do not want to believe. I want to understand. I wish more people felt the same way.
All empirical understanding is probabilistic. If the best explanation from the evidence is that what's going on is a mixture of mistaken perceptions, tricks of the light, misperceptions of weather balloons, drones, etc., with a large helping of grift or credulity on the part of those reporting the events, then coming to that conclusion just is understanding. Refusing to accept this is not search for understanding, no matter what anyone claims, it's refusal to accept an explanation that does not align with ones existing assumption that there is something there that is *not* an easily explainable perceptual anomaly, but rather something really novel and worth hiding. Understanding is not always correct, and maybe the hunch that these are actually some kind of futuristic space vehicle operating in ways impossible to known physics is correct. It could be the case that our understanding of what is possible is simply really wrong, our picture of physics is wrong and there is a different framework for understanding that we need to discover that will offer an even better explanation of the evidence we have, and a different understanding. That's certainly possible, and has happened for other phenomena in the past, but for what we're looking at here that seems to me like a vanishing degree of possibility. There is no evidence in favor of it and the hunch is not based on evidence but a kind of faith. Continuing to say, "but I just want to understand, I'm not really one of those people who believes it's aliens" comes across, to me, as either disingenuous or a kind of self deception. If all one cared about was understanding, the matter would be more or less closed.
posted by dis_integration at 7:18 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
All empirical understanding is probabilistic. If the best explanation from the evidence is that what's going on is a mixture of mistaken perceptions, tricks of the light, misperceptions of weather balloons, drones, etc., with a large helping of grift or credulity on the part of those reporting the events, then coming to that conclusion just is understanding. Refusing to accept this is not search for understanding, no matter what anyone claims, it's refusal to accept an explanation that does not align with ones existing assumption that there is something there that is *not* an easily explainable perceptual anomaly, but rather something really novel and worth hiding. Understanding is not always correct, and maybe the hunch that these are actually some kind of futuristic space vehicle operating in ways impossible to known physics is correct. It could be the case that our understanding of what is possible is simply really wrong, our picture of physics is wrong and there is a different framework for understanding that we need to discover that will offer an even better explanation of the evidence we have, and a different understanding. That's certainly possible, and has happened for other phenomena in the past, but for what we're looking at here that seems to me like a vanishing degree of possibility. There is no evidence in favor of it and the hunch is not based on evidence but a kind of faith. Continuing to say, "but I just want to understand, I'm not really one of those people who believes it's aliens" comes across, to me, as either disingenuous or a kind of self deception. If all one cared about was understanding, the matter would be more or less closed.
posted by dis_integration at 7:18 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
inire I think perhaps that's one of our core points of disagreement. You seem to somehow think this debacle is a process that will (or at least may) produce evidence and I see absolutely no reason at all to think it will.
We've all seen this sort of thing time and again with all the various conspiracy theorists. They hold some huge publicity thing and swear, like Lucy and the football, that THIS TIME they will totally produce evidence. And they never do.
Additionally and this keeps coming back to the part where you continue to insist that a conspiracy to hush up the evidence us possible when it manifestly is not, if aliens are buzzing airplanes we don't NEED declassified documents because plenty of non-militarty people would have been seeing it.
Now you are proposing both aliens who want to hide and are unable to who ALSO limit themselves to only allowing themselves to he seen by military vehicles so 100% of the evidence can be classified.
The list of requirements for the aliens you hypothesize keeps getting bigger and bigger in order to accomodate your insistence that a conspiracy to keep them secret can be tiny and managable.
Now you require aliens who
1. Are have the tech and intelligence to cross interstellar distances and also have such horrible tech and low intelligence that they crash.
2. Have a desire to hide and the technology to cross interstellar distances but fail to hide from us primitive screwheads.
2a. Have the desire to hide but fail AND ALSO only ever travel in five eyes airspace.
2b. Have the desire to hide but fail AND ALSO not only travel exclusively in five eyes airspace BUT ALSO scrupulously avoid all civilian aircraft, all weather radar, all civilian air traffic control radar, all amateur and professional astronomers, and all people with cell phones.
Those aliens are simultaneously brilliant and stupid, possessed of super tech and have tech that fails frequently, are incompetent enough to try to hide but fail but are competent enough to very carefully only have thier attempts to hide fail only when the government can hush it up.
Again we come back to the other big point: despite your claims to the contrary any conspiracy capable of hushing up aliens and limiting all possible evidence to evidence that can be classified is impossible.
TL;DR:
1) I see no reason to believe this giant Skinwalker Ranch advertisement will produce one tiny shred of evidence.
2) If there were aliens buzzing around and showing off we wouldn't NEED declassification because it would be impossible to classify all the evidence such aliens would produce.
posted by sotonohito at 7:31 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
We've all seen this sort of thing time and again with all the various conspiracy theorists. They hold some huge publicity thing and swear, like Lucy and the football, that THIS TIME they will totally produce evidence. And they never do.
Additionally and this keeps coming back to the part where you continue to insist that a conspiracy to hush up the evidence us possible when it manifestly is not, if aliens are buzzing airplanes we don't NEED declassified documents because plenty of non-militarty people would have been seeing it.
Now you are proposing both aliens who want to hide and are unable to who ALSO limit themselves to only allowing themselves to he seen by military vehicles so 100% of the evidence can be classified.
The list of requirements for the aliens you hypothesize keeps getting bigger and bigger in order to accomodate your insistence that a conspiracy to keep them secret can be tiny and managable.
Now you require aliens who
1. Are have the tech and intelligence to cross interstellar distances and also have such horrible tech and low intelligence that they crash.
2. Have a desire to hide and the technology to cross interstellar distances but fail to hide from us primitive screwheads.
2a. Have the desire to hide but fail AND ALSO only ever travel in five eyes airspace.
2b. Have the desire to hide but fail AND ALSO not only travel exclusively in five eyes airspace BUT ALSO scrupulously avoid all civilian aircraft, all weather radar, all civilian air traffic control radar, all amateur and professional astronomers, and all people with cell phones.
Those aliens are simultaneously brilliant and stupid, possessed of super tech and have tech that fails frequently, are incompetent enough to try to hide but fail but are competent enough to very carefully only have thier attempts to hide fail only when the government can hush it up.
Again we come back to the other big point: despite your claims to the contrary any conspiracy capable of hushing up aliens and limiting all possible evidence to evidence that can be classified is impossible.
TL;DR:
1) I see no reason to believe this giant Skinwalker Ranch advertisement will produce one tiny shred of evidence.
2) If there were aliens buzzing around and showing off we wouldn't NEED declassification because it would be impossible to classify all the evidence such aliens would produce.
posted by sotonohito at 7:31 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
FWIW there are plenty of civilian sightings of fuzzy blobs without immediate explanation they are just not the ones getting the attention in this case, IMHO because the selling point here is “decorated military officers wouldn’t get overexcited over nothing, this must be legitimate” vs Joe Schlubb doing it.
posted by Artw at 7:40 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 7:40 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
On the inherent believability of The Troops… The Navy (now Ex-Navy for a few years) guy I know the most is generally an honest, likable and upright guy, but voted for Trump and will believe any old bullshit his Navy buddies tell him, some of which is pretty bizarre - the Trump voting being a consequence of that. I think if you gave him the opportunity to stand in front of a camera and swear to it all being true he would do enthusiastically do it.
posted by Artw at 7:52 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 7:52 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
AND ALSO only ever travel in five eyes airspace
No, that can't be right, or Mussolini would never have scored his football-pitch-sized one.
If you're going to get the basic facts as badly wrong as that, why would anybody give the rest of your argument any weight whatsoever?
posted by flabdablet at 8:30 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
No, that can't be right, or Mussolini would never have scored his football-pitch-sized one.
If you're going to get the basic facts as badly wrong as that, why would anybody give the rest of your argument any weight whatsoever?
posted by flabdablet at 8:30 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
the selling point here is “decorated military officers wouldn’t get overexcited over nothing, this must be legitimate” vs Joe Schlubb doing it.
Artw, I served with Joe Schlubb. I knew Joe Schlubb. Joe Schlubb was a friend of mine. Artw, you're no Joe Schlubb.
posted by flabdablet at 8:34 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Artw, I served with Joe Schlubb. I knew Joe Schlubb. Joe Schlubb was a friend of mine. Artw, you're no Joe Schlubb.
posted by flabdablet at 8:34 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
AND ALSO only ever travel in five eyes airspace
UFO-type sightings happen more often near military airspace - so maybe there is a thing there.
posted by Artw at 8:38 AM on August 11, 2023
UFO-type sightings happen more often near military airspace - so maybe there is a thing there.
posted by Artw at 8:38 AM on August 11, 2023
Artw, I served with Joe Schlubb. I knew Joe Schlubb. Joe Schlubb was a friend of mine. Artw, you're no Joe Schlubb.
Hey, I could push a broom/own a car dealership in a small town just the same as any fictional everyman.
posted by Artw at 8:40 AM on August 11, 2023
Hey, I could push a broom/own a car dealership in a small town just the same as any fictional everyman.
posted by Artw at 8:40 AM on August 11, 2023
Maybe. But could you be that fictional everyman? Joe Schlubb could, and did, every day of his life. Joe Schlubb was the real deal.
posted by flabdablet at 8:52 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 8:52 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
TL;DR:
1) I see no reason to believe this giant Skinwalker Ranch advertisement will produce one tiny shred of evidence.
2) If there were aliens buzzing around and showing off we wouldn't NEED declassification because it would be impossible to classify all the evidence such aliens would produce.
re (1), i think the current events (the amendment, hearings, intel committees, inspector generals, etc etc) have a good chance of producing more information than we have at present. what information might be produced is uncertain. it might be declassified information re uaps, or the purported first hand testimony given to the intel committee, or documents indicating mundane defense contractor misconduct, and so on. it might be information that supports the aliens explanation, or that undermines it, or that is consistent with multiple explanations - i don’t care which, as long as it helps us get a better understanding and narrow down the possibility space of potential explanations for currently inexplicable uap encounters and grusch et al’s allegations. i see no strong reason to oppose the prospect of more information being made available for analysis.
re (2), none of the requirements you list are necessary for grusch’s allegations to be true, for reasons discussed at length earlier in the thread. similar to your earlier comment, you seem to be arguing against a straw man of your own devising.
posted by inire at 9:30 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
1) I see no reason to believe this giant Skinwalker Ranch advertisement will produce one tiny shred of evidence.
2) If there were aliens buzzing around and showing off we wouldn't NEED declassification because it would be impossible to classify all the evidence such aliens would produce.
re (1), i think the current events (the amendment, hearings, intel committees, inspector generals, etc etc) have a good chance of producing more information than we have at present. what information might be produced is uncertain. it might be declassified information re uaps, or the purported first hand testimony given to the intel committee, or documents indicating mundane defense contractor misconduct, and so on. it might be information that supports the aliens explanation, or that undermines it, or that is consistent with multiple explanations - i don’t care which, as long as it helps us get a better understanding and narrow down the possibility space of potential explanations for currently inexplicable uap encounters and grusch et al’s allegations. i see no strong reason to oppose the prospect of more information being made available for analysis.
re (2), none of the requirements you list are necessary for grusch’s allegations to be true, for reasons discussed at length earlier in the thread. similar to your earlier comment, you seem to be arguing against a straw man of your own devising.
posted by inire at 9:30 AM on August 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
inire Well, clearly I disagree strongly on point one. I think there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that any of this will result in new information of any value at all. They'll probably toss out a few more bigfoot level blurry photos to keep UFO fandom happy.
But if, for the sake of argument, some of these unexplained OBSERVATIONS actually are a Boeing experimental aircraft do you think the military will admit that? And in so doing tell everyone on the planet about the experiments?
It does appear that you view empowering and encouraging conspiracy thinking to be essentially cost free, which is another point of disagreement. If I agreed that this thing entailed no risk or cost I'd agree with you that we might as well. But I see a price tag attached, in the form of additional credibility to conspiracy thinking at a time when America is suffering greatly due to conspiracy thinking, and I consider a few bigfoot level blurs to be not worth that price.
As for Grusch and his allegations, if you actually consider the possibility of the US government having alien corpses and football field sized alien spacecraft to be greater than the possibility of Grusch being given a perpetual motion machine on his trip to Atlantis then... wow.
There's a difference between having an open mind and being a sucker and thinking Grusch has anything is deep into sucker territory.
posted by sotonohito at 10:01 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
But if, for the sake of argument, some of these unexplained OBSERVATIONS actually are a Boeing experimental aircraft do you think the military will admit that? And in so doing tell everyone on the planet about the experiments?
It does appear that you view empowering and encouraging conspiracy thinking to be essentially cost free, which is another point of disagreement. If I agreed that this thing entailed no risk or cost I'd agree with you that we might as well. But I see a price tag attached, in the form of additional credibility to conspiracy thinking at a time when America is suffering greatly due to conspiracy thinking, and I consider a few bigfoot level blurs to be not worth that price.
As for Grusch and his allegations, if you actually consider the possibility of the US government having alien corpses and football field sized alien spacecraft to be greater than the possibility of Grusch being given a perpetual motion machine on his trip to Atlantis then... wow.
There's a difference between having an open mind and being a sucker and thinking Grusch has anything is deep into sucker territory.
posted by sotonohito at 10:01 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
i think the current events (the amendment, hearings, intel committees, inspector generals, etc etc) have a good chance of producing more information than we have at present.
I think the AARO/NASA collab has a good chance of producing plausible explanations for a decent chunk of what is currently unexplained, and I think resourcing AARO to install high quality land-based tracking and ranging sensors near known sighting hotspots will do no harm.
I certainly don't think we're going to get any new physics out of this, and nor do I expect to see radically new tech. The benefit I expect to see is better UI design for existing imaging equipment and better training for the operators so they'll be less startled by artifacts than they manifestly have been to this point.
The only way I can see the current circus making any difference to those efforts is to distract from them and slow them down; you don't get good work from good people by constantly joggling their elbows. It's also going to encourage more people to interpret AARO refusing to provide definitive explanations for incidents where there simply isn't enough information to be definitive as The Goddamn Gubmint Is Still Hiding The Goddamn Aliens.
If Congress is to spend time scrutinizing the military, the driving motivation should be fixing its literal unaccountability and egregious audit failures across the board. Focusing specifically on how terrible it is at dealing with UAP reports misses a very large, very dark forest for the sake of doing a bit of topiary on one teeny tiny shrub.
posted by flabdablet at 10:28 AM on August 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
I think the AARO/NASA collab has a good chance of producing plausible explanations for a decent chunk of what is currently unexplained, and I think resourcing AARO to install high quality land-based tracking and ranging sensors near known sighting hotspots will do no harm.
I certainly don't think we're going to get any new physics out of this, and nor do I expect to see radically new tech. The benefit I expect to see is better UI design for existing imaging equipment and better training for the operators so they'll be less startled by artifacts than they manifestly have been to this point.
The only way I can see the current circus making any difference to those efforts is to distract from them and slow them down; you don't get good work from good people by constantly joggling their elbows. It's also going to encourage more people to interpret AARO refusing to provide definitive explanations for incidents where there simply isn't enough information to be definitive as The Goddamn Gubmint Is Still Hiding The Goddamn Aliens.
If Congress is to spend time scrutinizing the military, the driving motivation should be fixing its literal unaccountability and egregious audit failures across the board. Focusing specifically on how terrible it is at dealing with UAP reports misses a very large, very dark forest for the sake of doing a bit of topiary on one teeny tiny shrub.
posted by flabdablet at 10:28 AM on August 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
Remember there a lot of decorated former US soldiers who went around in the 80s and 90s claiming that there were hundreds of US soldiers being held by Vietnam as forgotten POWS. And of course all those "Swift Boat Veterans for the truth" people who showed up in 2004 to slime John Kerry.
posted by interogative mood at 10:37 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 10:37 AM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
Remember there a lot of decorated former US soldiers who went around in the 80s and 90s claiming that there were hundreds of US soldiers being held by Vietnam as forgotten POWS.
Very good pull, because that connects back to the problems of giving conspiracy theories government support. That one has gotten so ingrained in culture that it's just the background noise, with the state showing support by being required to fly the flag by law. And it's absolutely not a benign conspiracy but that level of support for it normalizes a level of acceptance that can lead to official state support for even worse and more harmful conspiracy nonsense, and lends an authoritative weight to lies and to the idea that you can create your own alternative truths in the face of hard evidence.
posted by jason_steakums at 4:57 PM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
Very good pull, because that connects back to the problems of giving conspiracy theories government support. That one has gotten so ingrained in culture that it's just the background noise, with the state showing support by being required to fly the flag by law. And it's absolutely not a benign conspiracy but that level of support for it normalizes a level of acceptance that can lead to official state support for even worse and more harmful conspiracy nonsense, and lends an authoritative weight to lies and to the idea that you can create your own alternative truths in the face of hard evidence.
posted by jason_steakums at 4:57 PM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
That too. Who else remembers how jarring it was when Kellyanne Conway first floated the doctrine of Alternative Facts very early on in TFG's presidency?
The slope is not so much slippery as subject to avalanche.
posted by flabdablet at 10:50 PM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
The slope is not so much slippery as subject to avalanche.
posted by flabdablet at 10:50 PM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
better UI design for existing imaging equipment
One feature that just occurred to me that I think could be worth building into the FLIR image processing chain is a visual indication of camera orientation. It wouldn't need to be super accurate; just a discreet little line segment put somewhere tidy that's always horizontal with respect to the sensor would do. This would make it instantly obvious to the operator when features of the displayed image were rotating in sync with the camera, making them much less likely to mistake camera artefacts for target behaviour.
Imagine how much less hoo-hah the Gimbal video would have caused if it had included that feature, rather than needing the operation of the image de-rotation post-processing to be teased out well after the initial release by obsessive and easily ignored debunkers.
Imagine how much safer pilots would be if given less reason to go chasing after ghosts.
posted by flabdablet at 11:05 PM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
One feature that just occurred to me that I think could be worth building into the FLIR image processing chain is a visual indication of camera orientation. It wouldn't need to be super accurate; just a discreet little line segment put somewhere tidy that's always horizontal with respect to the sensor would do. This would make it instantly obvious to the operator when features of the displayed image were rotating in sync with the camera, making them much less likely to mistake camera artefacts for target behaviour.
Imagine how much less hoo-hah the Gimbal video would have caused if it had included that feature, rather than needing the operation of the image de-rotation post-processing to be teased out well after the initial release by obsessive and easily ignored debunkers.
Imagine how much safer pilots would be if given less reason to go chasing after ghosts.
posted by flabdablet at 11:05 PM on August 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
“Looks like the UFO show @NewsNation…is going to have to issue another correction!”
posted by Artw at 3:39 PM on August 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 3:39 PM on August 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
As anchor Elizabeth Vargas was discussing reporter Ken Klippenstein’s story, she said on air: “We just got news that about half an hour ago, the reporter who wrote that article for The Intercept was fired.”
When "we just got news" actually means "we read on Twitter (badly, missed the next tweet)" you know you've got some real quality journalism going on
posted by jason_steakums at 7:25 PM on August 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
When "we just got news" actually means "we read on Twitter (badly, missed the next tweet)" you know you've got some real quality journalism going on
posted by jason_steakums at 7:25 PM on August 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
A month into this thread and months after initial reporting about Grusch and no new evidence of his claims has emerged, no whistleblowers, no leaks or background sources to regular journalists.
posted by interogative mood at 8:58 AM on August 14, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:58 AM on August 14, 2023 [3 favorites]
I suspect by nescessity we are now we are on to a new phase with Grusch. He’s pretty much reached the high water mark of where he can get this thing without presenting evidence or naming any of his sources, neither of which he is likely do, and any mor outrageous claims would just be more of the same, so now he either focuses on his SOL foundation, whatever that is (probably a monetization of all this media attention), or focuses on how unfairly oppressed he is by “the cover up” and encourages r/ufo types to continue their low key freakout over Ken Klippenstein.
posted by Artw at 9:52 AM on August 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Artw at 9:52 AM on August 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
Since this thread is still meandering along, for some reason, I'll just drop this into it:
Burke gives a lot of insight into various aspects of this from an operational/hands-on-experience type of view - everything from what various 'objects' that appear on radar and IR screens might be, to why various unidentified objects aren't just run to the ground and solved at the moment they're discovered, to why they can't correlate things seen in the fighter craft or on their various screens with what is seen on radar & other screens on other aircraft or ships, to why the centralized investigations into these phenomena never seem to amount to much, to his opinion of Grusch (spoiler: not positive).
An interesting interview all around, and worth watching and considering wherever you stand on these issues. Note that he doesn't purport to give really definitive answers to anything - merely his perspective from having operated similar aircraft and equipment in similar settings with similar colleagues etc etc etc.
posted by flug at 12:38 PM on August 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
An interesting interview all around, and worth watching and considering wherever you stand on these issues. Note that he doesn't purport to give really definitive answers to anything - merely his perspective from having operated similar aircraft and equipment in similar settings with similar colleagues etc etc etc.
posted by flug at 12:38 PM on August 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Aliens are Here – or Maybe They’re Elves?
posted by flabdablet at 12:39 PM on August 14, 2023
Another take is from a semi-spiritual bend, that these beings, whatever they are, have always been here and that we’ve been interacting with them for millennia. In some circles the possibility that these same beings may account for angel, fairy, and potentially many other kinds of encounters as seen through different cultural lenses has been around for decades.That checks out
posted by flabdablet at 12:39 PM on August 14, 2023
Another possible theory (note: spoilers for Babylon 5 within if you care).
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:31 PM on August 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:31 PM on August 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
Video: Sen. Gillibrand on funding AARO, investigating special access programs, protecting whistleblowers, and the recent hearings
posted by Rhaomi at 9:27 AM on August 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Rhaomi at 9:27 AM on August 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
This was a kick ass post, Rahomi, thank you again!
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:12 AM on August 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:12 AM on August 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
Gillibrand:
Some tiny insignificant player not worth a mention, apparently. Probably not physically close enough to where these reports happen to be a contender, either. /snark
Creating AARO and upgrading sensors across the board are both good ideas. But if the results clearly show that Chinese, Russian or Iranian gear has been responsible for a significantly higher percentage of UAP reports than of positive identification incidents, or for more than turn out to be other US military or civilian traffic or assorted random debris or imagery misinterpretation, I'll eat your hat.
posted by flabdablet at 2:57 AM on August 16, 2023
And this is fascinating, because we don't know who is making these types of aircraft. I'm sure some of it's China, I'm sure some of it's Russia, and I'm sure some of it's Iran. They are at the forefront of drone technology...Now, which other country can we think of who is "is at the forefront of drone technology"? Could it possibly be one so unbelievably allergic to public services that it would underfund its military to the extent that no senior officer is ever given time to investigate a UAP field report while simultaneously shovelling more money down the gaping maw of its private defence contracting industry than most countries spend on their entire operating budgets?
Some tiny insignificant player not worth a mention, apparently. Probably not physically close enough to where these reports happen to be a contender, either. /snark
Creating AARO and upgrading sensors across the board are both good ideas. But if the results clearly show that Chinese, Russian or Iranian gear has been responsible for a significantly higher percentage of UAP reports than of positive identification incidents, or for more than turn out to be other US military or civilian traffic or assorted random debris or imagery misinterpretation, I'll eat your hat.
posted by flabdablet at 2:57 AM on August 16, 2023
If it's aliens, I'll eat your hat and then crap it out again and eat it twice.
posted by flabdablet at 3:04 AM on August 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 3:04 AM on August 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
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This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
If this was the Roman Senate, they'd declare it bullshittius maximus.
posted by mephron at 10:42 AM on July 17, 2023 [102 favorites]