From Ukraine with Love
November 11, 2023 6:26 PM Subscribe
WaPo: Ukrainian military officer coordinated Nord Stream pipeline attack that shocked and mystified the West [archive.is]
Roman Chervinsky, a decorated 48-year-old colonel who served in Ukraine’s special operations forces, was the “coordinator” of the Nord Stream operation, people familiar with his role said, managing logistics and support for a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities and used deep-sea diving equipment to place explosive charges on the gas pipelines.[...] Chervinsky did not act alone, and he did not plan the operation, according to the people familiar with his role, which has not been previously reported. The officer took orders from more senior Ukrainian officials, who ultimately reported to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, said people familiar with how the operation was carried out. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details about the bombing, which has strained diplomatic relations with Ukraine and drawn objections from U.S. officials.Notably claims that President Zelensky was kept out of the loop, especially since Chervinsky is currently behind bars for an unrelated rogue operation. As with any anonymously-sourced story, to be taken with a grain of salt, though the Washington Post is somewhat more reliable than Seymour Hersh's Substack theorizing [previously].
i still want to know if hersh's brain is in a jar in some suburb in minsk
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:40 PM on November 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:40 PM on November 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm not sure that "Ukraine did it and Zelensky was kept in the dark about it" is tremendously more comforting than "Ukraine did it and Zelensky did know about it."
posted by delfin at 6:51 PM on November 11, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by delfin at 6:51 PM on November 11, 2023 [16 favorites]
Maybe not “comforting” but it does give a lot of room for Western leaders to acknowledge this happened and express disapproval but also keep supporting the war and working with Zelensky, since he wasn’t involved.
posted by Tomorrowful at 7:15 PM on November 11, 2023 [20 favorites]
posted by Tomorrowful at 7:15 PM on November 11, 2023 [20 favorites]
Will not one rid us of this turbulent pipe?
posted by interogative mood at 7:38 PM on November 11, 2023 [33 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:38 PM on November 11, 2023 [33 favorites]
I can't believe the Ukrainians may have attacked a vulnerable part of the economic infrastructure of the country that invaded them!
posted by Reverend John at 8:04 PM on November 11, 2023 [42 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 8:04 PM on November 11, 2023 [42 favorites]
A few months ago this kind of thing was met with calls of conspiracy theory.
The only acceptable answer was that Russia bombed their own pipeline.
posted by Iax at 8:17 PM on November 11, 2023 [11 favorites]
The only acceptable answer was that Russia bombed their own pipeline.
posted by Iax at 8:17 PM on November 11, 2023 [11 favorites]
A few months ago this kind of thing was met with calls of conspiracy theory.
The only acceptable answer was that Russia bombed their own pipeline.
I don't know what sites or threads you were reading, but the hypotheses generally dismissed as conspiracy theories were "The US did it" or "NATO did it." Hersh's article was pretty roundly mocked by all of the people I observed who were careful and patient observers of the situation.
I, and many other people, said that Ukrainian intelligence or spec ops groups had the operational capability and were the perfect candidate as far as motive, but were only a little unsure if they had the specific means at that specific time.
posted by tclark at 8:24 PM on November 11, 2023 [17 favorites]
The only acceptable answer was that Russia bombed their own pipeline.
I don't know what sites or threads you were reading, but the hypotheses generally dismissed as conspiracy theories were "The US did it" or "NATO did it." Hersh's article was pretty roundly mocked by all of the people I observed who were careful and patient observers of the situation.
I, and many other people, said that Ukrainian intelligence or spec ops groups had the operational capability and were the perfect candidate as far as motive, but were only a little unsure if they had the specific means at that specific time.
posted by tclark at 8:24 PM on November 11, 2023 [17 favorites]
i still want to know if hersh's brain is in a jar in some suburb in minsk
posted by They sucked his brains out! at
6:40 PM on November 11
If so, we all know how it got there.
posted by y2karl at 8:50 PM on November 11, 2023 [13 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at
6:40 PM on November 11
If so, we all know how it got there.
posted by y2karl at 8:50 PM on November 11, 2023 [13 favorites]
"Roooooogue operata"
posted by clavdivs at 8:50 PM on November 11, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 8:50 PM on November 11, 2023 [5 favorites]
a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities
Oh thank you thank you thank you so much, real world, for giving my brain THAT movie to cast in my head.
posted by vrakatar at 8:51 PM on November 11, 2023 [11 favorites]
Oh thank you thank you thank you so much, real world, for giving my brain THAT movie to cast in my head.
posted by vrakatar at 8:51 PM on November 11, 2023 [11 favorites]
Edward g Robinson as the brains. Lucille Ball as the driver. Jimmy Stewart as explosives expert. Ronald Reagan as the muscle. Sydney Greenstreet as the engineer. Ray milland is diver number two. with special guest star: Klaus Kinski as the radio operator
posted by clavdivs at 8:59 PM on November 11, 2023 [36 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 8:59 PM on November 11, 2023 [36 favorites]
Nice retro take there, clav, thanks!
posted by vrakatar at 9:05 PM on November 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by vrakatar at 9:05 PM on November 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
The only acceptable answer was that Russia bombed their own pipeline.
Russia has a sub specifically designed to do this task and it's often in the Baltic Sea. So they at least had plenty of method and opportunity. The US theories similarly rely on US capabilities which are a little more speculative, but probably real.
The most speculative part of the Ukraine theories is the how part. Doing that sort of thing at that depth, in an area with that many ears about and not getting caught would be a pretty amazing feat for a non-superpower. Even more so for one without even a regional power strength navy. And they did it twice.
That the problem with all of these theories: motive, capability and opportunity don't line up for any single nation really.
posted by bonehead at 9:22 PM on November 11, 2023 [13 favorites]
Russia has a sub specifically designed to do this task and it's often in the Baltic Sea. So they at least had plenty of method and opportunity. The US theories similarly rely on US capabilities which are a little more speculative, but probably real.
The most speculative part of the Ukraine theories is the how part. Doing that sort of thing at that depth, in an area with that many ears about and not getting caught would be a pretty amazing feat for a non-superpower. Even more so for one without even a regional power strength navy. And they did it twice.
That the problem with all of these theories: motive, capability and opportunity don't line up for any single nation really.
posted by bonehead at 9:22 PM on November 11, 2023 [13 favorites]
a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities
Nobody here but us recreational sailors.
posted by fairmettle at 9:38 PM on November 11, 2023 [10 favorites]
Nobody here but us recreational sailors.
posted by fairmettle at 9:38 PM on November 11, 2023 [10 favorites]
The timing of this reportage is interesting, especially wrt how this plays out with the upcoming/pending US gov't shutdown. The parallelism of timing is probably just random coincidence, but the Republics are trying their absolute best to keep their Russian handlers happy by withholding help to Ukraine. On the other hand, the report explicitly detaches Zelenskyy from any involvement. Hard to read this one without wondering what is the story behind this story, if even true; there seems more to dig into here. The unspoken premise about gas metering revenue through Ukraine, for instance.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:43 PM on November 11, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:43 PM on November 11, 2023 [7 favorites]
Russia had motive to bomb the older pipeline if they thought they could force the opening of Nordstream 2 that way, but didn't have much reason to bomb half of Nordstream 2, though I suppose you could theorize trying to cloud the motive while still being able to deliver the gas, seems a stretch though. And I guess there's the opposite theory that they were trying to avoid financial liability for cutting off gas, but seems like they could have just gone on claiming maintenance problems. But they definitely had all the assets necessary in the area, which is more than you can say for any other actor.
Ukraine had motive but it also would have been considerable risk for them if uncovered, and I remain skeptical about managing such deep and difficult dives successfully off such a small boat with no dive customizations. The US/Norwegian operation idea remains a ridiculous farrago from a guy who is either a Russian operative these days or hopelessly entwined in listening to such.
A Ukrainian oligarch funding their own private operation does seem the most plausible intersection of motive and disregard of risk, but as noted above, I remain doubtful of the claimed operation design.
posted by tavella at 12:01 AM on November 12, 2023 [9 favorites]
Ukraine had motive but it also would have been considerable risk for them if uncovered, and I remain skeptical about managing such deep and difficult dives successfully off such a small boat with no dive customizations. The US/Norwegian operation idea remains a ridiculous farrago from a guy who is either a Russian operative these days or hopelessly entwined in listening to such.
A Ukrainian oligarch funding their own private operation does seem the most plausible intersection of motive and disregard of risk, but as noted above, I remain doubtful of the claimed operation design.
posted by tavella at 12:01 AM on November 12, 2023 [9 favorites]
On a technical level, getting to the Nord bombsites just isn't that hard. I consistently see the reported depths as 75 m (246 ft). That's double and a half the general recommend depth for recreational scuba divers, using compressed air. But entirely within the capabilities of sports divers using gas mixes or rebreathers. So large numbers of civilians using off the shelf dive equipment can reach that depth and required navigation skills, no problem.
And I've seen statements that the usual suspects will sell naval mines to.... Just about anyone. Most do not seem to be very expensive either. (Geezus. Yikes) A team of four divers theoretically should be able to handle a 500 pound, man sized object underwater without too much difficulty?
So my partial guesstimate calculations says this could have been done by any mid level scuba group, from a not very big ship, with common equipment (plus explosives) on a single night. Probably for less than a million dollars. No state level technology required. (Though Russia apparently had a submarine in the area capable of setting the mines in the right time frame)
Doing it without getting caught might be interesting, but in my theoretical scenario, it's pretty much slipping a handful of divers into and out of the water.
posted by Jacen at 2:00 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
And I've seen statements that the usual suspects will sell naval mines to.... Just about anyone. Most do not seem to be very expensive either. (Geezus. Yikes) A team of four divers theoretically should be able to handle a 500 pound, man sized object underwater without too much difficulty?
So my partial guesstimate calculations says this could have been done by any mid level scuba group, from a not very big ship, with common equipment (plus explosives) on a single night. Probably for less than a million dollars. No state level technology required. (Though Russia apparently had a submarine in the area capable of setting the mines in the right time frame)
Doing it without getting caught might be interesting, but in my theoretical scenario, it's pretty much slipping a handful of divers into and out of the water.
posted by Jacen at 2:00 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
a six-person team that rented a sailboat under false identities
Gilligan's Pipeline
posted by chavenet at 4:40 AM on November 12, 2023 [16 favorites]
Gilligan's Pipeline
posted by chavenet at 4:40 AM on November 12, 2023 [16 favorites]
Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines? |[37m] DW Documentary from a month ago. "For months, a large team of journalists worked to track down the alleged culprits. They spoke with investigators and researchers while looking into a variety of theories and motives - to find answers to one of the most secret acts of sabotage of our time. " tl;dr: Rustem A and Maxim B are close to the centre of the Andromeda yacht rental and voyage.
posted by BobTheScientist at 4:50 AM on November 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by BobTheScientist at 4:50 AM on November 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
So my partial guesstimate calculations says this could have been done by any mid level scuba group, from a not very big ship, with common equipment (plus explosives) on a single night.
...
Doing it without getting caught might be interesting, but in my theoretical scenario, it's pretty much slipping a handful of divers into and out of the water.
Hardly a simple operation. A dive like this would require both a lot of skill (esp. if one were also managing lot of heavy equipment, like a mine and lighting) and a lot of time to accomplish. Even a short dive to depths in this range would require in the neighborhood of 2 or more hours of decompression time in order to return to the surface safely. And that means either carrying a lot of gas and/or using a very advanced (mil grade?) mixed gas rebreather.
NOTE: I have several advanced SCUBA certifications, including for Trimix and deco, but it's been a while since I used these skills. Someone else with more recent experience may want to comment/correct my assertion. I mostly just wanted to tamp down the notion this was in anyway an easy to stage and perform operation.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:20 AM on November 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
...
Doing it without getting caught might be interesting, but in my theoretical scenario, it's pretty much slipping a handful of divers into and out of the water.
Hardly a simple operation. A dive like this would require both a lot of skill (esp. if one were also managing lot of heavy equipment, like a mine and lighting) and a lot of time to accomplish. Even a short dive to depths in this range would require in the neighborhood of 2 or more hours of decompression time in order to return to the surface safely. And that means either carrying a lot of gas and/or using a very advanced (mil grade?) mixed gas rebreather.
NOTE: I have several advanced SCUBA certifications, including for Trimix and deco, but it's been a while since I used these skills. Someone else with more recent experience may want to comment/correct my assertion. I mostly just wanted to tamp down the notion this was in anyway an easy to stage and perform operation.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:20 AM on November 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
As far as I'm concerned whoever it was did NATO a huge favor
Early February 2022, Joe Biden promised that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean "there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2", because "we will bring an end to it". When questioned how the US would do that, he responded: "Trust me, we will be able to do that."
After the attack on Nord Stream 2, last year September 2022, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen warned that "Any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable and will lead to the strongest possible response," while Danish PM Mette Fredriksen expressed being "very worried" about the "sabotage of critical infrastructure". Poland's PM Mateusz Morawiecki said "we see clearly that it’s an act of sabotage related to the next step of escalation of the situation in Ukraine", while Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, tweeted: "'Gas leak' from NS-1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards [the] EU."
Then, nothing. The official investigations by Denmark, Sweden and Germany were shelved or soft-pedaled. Seymour Hersch's reporting was dismissed as the late life folly of a has-been. The current WaPo piece gets predictably impugned for its political timing. Still, it is clear that the argument that Russia blew up their own pipeline has become hard to sell to the public at large. So there's also been a narrative shift, to get the point across more clearly. That point is that sabotage is good, actually!
It's a remarkable example of how and why the Narcissists Prayer works. You better heed the threat, because I won't be responsible for the consequences.
That didn't happen.
And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
And if it was, that's not a big deal.
And if it is, that's not my fault.
And if it was, I didn't mean it.
And if I did, you deserved it.
posted by dmh at 5:26 AM on November 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
Early February 2022, Joe Biden promised that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would mean "there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2", because "we will bring an end to it". When questioned how the US would do that, he responded: "Trust me, we will be able to do that."
After the attack on Nord Stream 2, last year September 2022, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen warned that "Any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable and will lead to the strongest possible response," while Danish PM Mette Fredriksen expressed being "very worried" about the "sabotage of critical infrastructure". Poland's PM Mateusz Morawiecki said "we see clearly that it’s an act of sabotage related to the next step of escalation of the situation in Ukraine", while Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, tweeted: "'Gas leak' from NS-1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards [the] EU."
Then, nothing. The official investigations by Denmark, Sweden and Germany were shelved or soft-pedaled. Seymour Hersch's reporting was dismissed as the late life folly of a has-been. The current WaPo piece gets predictably impugned for its political timing. Still, it is clear that the argument that Russia blew up their own pipeline has become hard to sell to the public at large. So there's also been a narrative shift, to get the point across more clearly. That point is that sabotage is good, actually!
It's a remarkable example of how and why the Narcissists Prayer works. You better heed the threat, because I won't be responsible for the consequences.
That didn't happen.
And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
And if it was, that's not a big deal.
And if it is, that's not my fault.
And if it was, I didn't mean it.
And if I did, you deserved it.
posted by dmh at 5:26 AM on November 12, 2023 [8 favorites]
I think Der Spiegel did the legwork on the broader version of this story back in August, in All the Pieces Point to Kyiv. Though I suppose the Bundeskriminalamt found the boat first.
posted by daveliepmann at 5:34 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by daveliepmann at 5:34 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
Also Der Spiegel jointly reported this story with the Washington Post. Here's yesterday's story: Ukrainian Special Forces Officer Allegedly Involved in Nord Stream Attack.
posted by Nelson at 5:38 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Nelson at 5:38 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
I think this story is plausibly true and I trust the journalists' professionalism. Still, this event is so hinky I wish it were a little better sourced than we've got here. WaPo: "according to officials in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, as well as other people knowledgeable about the details of the covert operation". Spiegel: "Chervinskyi's name is circulating both in Ukrainian and international security circles in connection with the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines." One gets the impression that they're reporting on cocktail party gossip. Again, these are good newspaper, I expect it's actually better than that. But that's all the sourcing they can share.
The earlier Spiegel reporting daveliepmann just linked is useful here, establishing how it could have been a Ukranian action without naming Chervinsky. It's a very long and detailed article and makes a good case for everything but Chervinsky's name. The reporters charted the damn boat and sailed it to the scene of the crime. Remarkable legwork.
Chervinsky is quite a character. Real life spy shit, a bunch of grubby covert actions. I assume part of why this story comes out now is because he's under arrest and prosecution by the Ukrainian government for overstepping his authority (and failing the mission).
posted by Nelson at 5:47 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
The earlier Spiegel reporting daveliepmann just linked is useful here, establishing how it could have been a Ukranian action without naming Chervinsky. It's a very long and detailed article and makes a good case for everything but Chervinsky's name. The reporters charted the damn boat and sailed it to the scene of the crime. Remarkable legwork.
Chervinsky is quite a character. Real life spy shit, a bunch of grubby covert actions. I assume part of why this story comes out now is because he's under arrest and prosecution by the Ukrainian government for overstepping his authority (and failing the mission).
posted by Nelson at 5:47 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
is this another example of people jumping into conspiracies that it had to have been the USA or Russia? when there are many parties with the capacity and motive for the act, and many people that can't be written off with motive and means.
These pipelines blow themselves up all the time, just because the oil company doesn't want to hire experienced operators, or, in the USA, pay for cybersecurity. So it's not out of the question that a third party with a different motive than the geopolitical ones of governments could be in the mix.
and, ultimately, if we are dependent upon such a pipeline, that, over and over again, that wars are fought over them, how about pushing up the timetables for getting rid of them, since these pipelines are driving the human species to extinction?
posted by eustatic at 5:53 AM on November 12, 2023 [5 favorites]
These pipelines blow themselves up all the time, just because the oil company doesn't want to hire experienced operators, or, in the USA, pay for cybersecurity. So it's not out of the question that a third party with a different motive than the geopolitical ones of governments could be in the mix.
and, ultimately, if we are dependent upon such a pipeline, that, over and over again, that wars are fought over them, how about pushing up the timetables for getting rid of them, since these pipelines are driving the human species to extinction?
posted by eustatic at 5:53 AM on November 12, 2023 [5 favorites]
This does seem better sourced than some of the early stories for sure. If they really did pull this off with a small crew and limited support, that's a warning sign for infrastructure all over the world.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:29 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 6:29 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
The timing of this reportage is interesting, especially wrt how this plays out with the upcoming/pending US gov't shutdown.
To say nothing of the will-they won't-they Ukrainian elections in March 2024. Would this sort of news help or hinder a Zaluzhnyi bid?
posted by BWA at 6:41 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
To say nothing of the will-they won't-they Ukrainian elections in March 2024. Would this sort of news help or hinder a Zaluzhnyi bid?
posted by BWA at 6:41 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
It's a remarkable example of how and why the Narcissists Prayer works. You better heed the threat, because I won't be responsible for the consequences.
That didn't happen.
And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
And if it was, that's not a big deal.
And if it is, that's not my fault.
And if it was, I didn't mean it.
And if I did, you deserved it.
I don't think that a Ukrainian attack on Russian economic infrastructure is narcissism or undeserved. As for the denials, that's war.
posted by Reverend John at 8:22 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
That didn't happen.
And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
And if it was, that's not a big deal.
And if it is, that's not my fault.
And if it was, I didn't mean it.
And if I did, you deserved it.
I don't think that a Ukrainian attack on Russian economic infrastructure is narcissism or undeserved. As for the denials, that's war.
posted by Reverend John at 8:22 AM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
I commented previously that this operation would be completely feasible with off the shelf commercial underwater autonomous vehicles. In my view thinking a bunch of divers off a small boat did this is very unlikely indeed. Indeed, the article says deep sea diving equipment, not divers, which I assume is carefully chosen wording.
posted by Rumple at 8:39 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Rumple at 8:39 AM on November 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
On one hand, the Danish Navy took photographs of a cluster of specialized Russian ships including one carrying a mini submarine with robotic arms near the site of the site days prior to the explosions, the Russian ships having their identifying transponders turned off.
On the other, this article, using unnamed sources, claim a team of specialist divers brought large amounts of explosives and a mini submarine (!) onto a sailing yacht in a tiny port in Germany... But who are the sources? From what organization? Intelligence agencies? Which country? None of that mentioned in the article. Everything is stated as fact — but they don't even bother mentioning where the information is from. There's some mention of the Dutch spy agency but on claims unrelated to the actual accusations the article is making.
Where are the photos of the crew loading a submarine onto the yacht? Traces of explosives? Where did they buy the explosives? Give us anything that looks like evidence.
WaPo even uses a Russian state propaganda TASS article to back up those claims. Nice. Icing on a cake of bullshit.
posted by UN at 11:43 AM on November 12, 2023 [16 favorites]
On the other, this article, using unnamed sources, claim a team of specialist divers brought large amounts of explosives and a mini submarine (!) onto a sailing yacht in a tiny port in Germany... But who are the sources? From what organization? Intelligence agencies? Which country? None of that mentioned in the article. Everything is stated as fact — but they don't even bother mentioning where the information is from. There's some mention of the Dutch spy agency but on claims unrelated to the actual accusations the article is making.
Where are the photos of the crew loading a submarine onto the yacht? Traces of explosives? Where did they buy the explosives? Give us anything that looks like evidence.
WaPo even uses a Russian state propaganda TASS article to back up those claims. Nice. Icing on a cake of bullshit.
posted by UN at 11:43 AM on November 12, 2023 [16 favorites]
"The Spiegel quotes a harbour master in Rügen as saying the group that hired the Andromeda were dressed like normal sailors, and that he saw them carrying shopping bags of provisions to the boat, speaking a language that “sounded Polish or Czech to him”. He said there were several men and a woman."
Lucy!
posted by clavdivs at 8:10 PM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
Lucy!
posted by clavdivs at 8:10 PM on November 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
Correction on my above comment ... the article mentions no maintenance robot in the case of the Bavaria yacht: that's another theory. So they carried between a half ton and two tons of explosives down without a submarine, using those shopping bags instead.
posted by UN at 12:23 AM on November 13, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by UN at 12:23 AM on November 13, 2023 [3 favorites]
I commented previously that this operation would be completely feasible with off the shelf commercial underwater autonomous vehicles. In my view thinking a bunch of divers off a small boat did this is very unlikely indeed. Indeed, the article says deep sea diving equipment, not divers, which I assume is carefully chosen wording.
This diving equipment would have probably sufficed (russian navy submarine-carrying SS-750 spotted at the sites of the explosions (Danish news report))
It’s been generally understood that the amount of explosives was around 500 kg per pipe, based, amongst other things, seismographic information when the blasts occurred. So those divers would have loaded something around 1000 kg of explosives plus diving equipment and so on onto that sailboat. The 14 kg load on an off-the-shelf sub you mentioned in your previous post doesn’t seem to match up, not that I’m an expert. But others that are see it as unlikely (long article by an explosives expert — sorry, German only).
IMO the Nord Stream explosions was or should have been to Germany what the Little Green Men were to Ukraine. The media here, just as they did early in the 2014 war and annexation of Crimea, keep doing their best to ignore the ship-sized elephants in the room. Sure, there were big naval vessels hovering around the sites of the explosions, but — look — a sailboat! Russia denies involvement and their media supports the sailboat theory, surely it couldn’t be the russians.
Meanwhile, Germany plans to double its contribution to support Ukraine next year so I think/hope at the highest level of government, (most) politicians here aren’t buying it.
posted by UN at 8:54 AM on November 13, 2023 [3 favorites]
This diving equipment would have probably sufficed (russian navy submarine-carrying SS-750 spotted at the sites of the explosions (Danish news report))
It’s been generally understood that the amount of explosives was around 500 kg per pipe, based, amongst other things, seismographic information when the blasts occurred. So those divers would have loaded something around 1000 kg of explosives plus diving equipment and so on onto that sailboat. The 14 kg load on an off-the-shelf sub you mentioned in your previous post doesn’t seem to match up, not that I’m an expert. But others that are see it as unlikely (long article by an explosives expert — sorry, German only).
IMO the Nord Stream explosions was or should have been to Germany what the Little Green Men were to Ukraine. The media here, just as they did early in the 2014 war and annexation of Crimea, keep doing their best to ignore the ship-sized elephants in the room. Sure, there were big naval vessels hovering around the sites of the explosions, but — look — a sailboat! Russia denies involvement and their media supports the sailboat theory, surely it couldn’t be the russians.
Meanwhile, Germany plans to double its contribution to support Ukraine next year so I think/hope at the highest level of government, (most) politicians here aren’t buying it.
posted by UN at 8:54 AM on November 13, 2023 [3 favorites]
… wait, I’m not clear. In the long term the destruction of the pipeline has only been to Russia’s detriment. So are the little green men Ukrainian? No, wait, they’re literally aliens, aren’t they? This is my personal favorite theory - it is absolutely unserious but hell, I like it and since there’s nothing else on offer (actually it’s because of one of my favorite jokes having to do with aliens messing with some fishermen in the Gulf of StLawrence)…
In all seriousness though, I do appreciate the links and input.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:15 AM on November 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
In all seriousness though, I do appreciate the links and input.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:15 AM on November 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
In the long term the destruction of the pipeline has only been to Russia’s detriment.
It's detrimental to russia in the way that breaking the bones of a shopkeeper is detrimental to the mafia when that shopkeeper starts to question the value of the mafia's "service", sure.
posted by UN at 11:49 AM on November 13, 2023 [4 favorites]
It's detrimental to russia in the way that breaking the bones of a shopkeeper is detrimental to the mafia when that shopkeeper starts to question the value of the mafia's "service", sure.
posted by UN at 11:49 AM on November 13, 2023 [4 favorites]
"One ton bomb sailboat" fits in with aluminum tubes reporting.
posted by Slackermagee at 4:42 AM on November 14, 2023
posted by Slackermagee at 4:42 AM on November 14, 2023
For UN or other Russia did it people. Russia controls the supply of the gas, why couldn't they just turn it off? And then use turning it back on a bargaining position to get something they want?
posted by Iax at 12:17 PM on November 14, 2023
posted by Iax at 12:17 PM on November 14, 2023
If they had unilaterally turned off the gas supply, it'd be russia who breaks the contract — not a good position to bargain with. It'd be a way to extort, not to bargain. If they had turned off the gas, Germany would have needed to find new suppliers and Russia would've been out of the loop. The extortion however would not have worked — Germany finding new suppliers is indeed exactly what happened after the pipes were taken out after Germany declared they'd no longer develop Nord Stream 2, so it was Germany that broke out of the deal.
Turning off the gas and playing the extortion game is also not the 'look' the russian state has cultivated in Germany to get what they want. They've instead waged an active campaign to make Russia look like an affordable, reliable partner in gas and other imports. There's no reason for them to sabotage those efforts.
Just yesterday a known and well published journalist was outed for receiving at least half a million euro from the the russian oligarch that built Putin's mansion — a direct payment into a tax sheltered account to write a book about putin. This journalist praised Putin and his 'projects' in Germany's most reputable news outlets for decades. He does not deny the sponsorship but claims it did not influence his work.
There are a number people in the German media landscape who I have no doubt are agents like this guy. A newspaper owner was also outed recently and I don't even need to mention our former Chancellor who got a lucrative 'job' in Putins state run enterprise. They've worked hard to corrupt the country.
Still, none of that explains why they blew up the pipelines instead of just leaving them there for future use. Well, the sailboat theories revolve around a Ukrainian crew with Polish connections. Blaming them does serve Russia's interest: Putin's media friends in Germany and Austria have gone on a rampage publishing articles about these supposed "Ukrainian terrorists" (will not link to these articles for obvious reasons) who are making gas expensive for ordinary Germans etc. Russia wants German support for Ukraine to be halted completely and this is their way.
Germany had cheap russian gas before either of the Nordstream pipelines were built. There are gas pipelines all over Europe. Nordstream wasn't created to deliver gas to Germany — it was created to bypass central/eastern Europe so that russia could wage war there without western europe noticing.
posted by UN at 11:09 PM on November 14, 2023 [5 favorites]
Turning off the gas and playing the extortion game is also not the 'look' the russian state has cultivated in Germany to get what they want. They've instead waged an active campaign to make Russia look like an affordable, reliable partner in gas and other imports. There's no reason for them to sabotage those efforts.
Just yesterday a known and well published journalist was outed for receiving at least half a million euro from the the russian oligarch that built Putin's mansion — a direct payment into a tax sheltered account to write a book about putin. This journalist praised Putin and his 'projects' in Germany's most reputable news outlets for decades. He does not deny the sponsorship but claims it did not influence his work.
There are a number people in the German media landscape who I have no doubt are agents like this guy. A newspaper owner was also outed recently and I don't even need to mention our former Chancellor who got a lucrative 'job' in Putins state run enterprise. They've worked hard to corrupt the country.
Still, none of that explains why they blew up the pipelines instead of just leaving them there for future use. Well, the sailboat theories revolve around a Ukrainian crew with Polish connections. Blaming them does serve Russia's interest: Putin's media friends in Germany and Austria have gone on a rampage publishing articles about these supposed "Ukrainian terrorists" (will not link to these articles for obvious reasons) who are making gas expensive for ordinary Germans etc. Russia wants German support for Ukraine to be halted completely and this is their way.
Germany had cheap russian gas before either of the Nordstream pipelines were built. There are gas pipelines all over Europe. Nordstream wasn't created to deliver gas to Germany — it was created to bypass central/eastern Europe so that russia could wage war there without western europe noticing.
posted by UN at 11:09 PM on November 14, 2023 [5 favorites]
The story on the journalist I mentioned in my last post blew up today in Germany. According to some, he may be the first western journalist who was exposed as a being paid directly by Putins immer circle.
Looking at interviews with Hubert Seipel on public television (German language only, no subs): wow. This is how paid advertising looks like when you work for a dictator. It's horrific seeing him spewing russian propaganda just prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All the things we've heard on repeat from a number of people: it's NATOs fault for expanding eastwards; Putin doesn't want a war but his hand is forced; the troop build-up on Ukraine's border isn't a threat; people in Donbas and Luhansk are also worried about Ukrainian troops on their border too, etc.
Well, now we know without any doubt who pays for those lines: Putin. I hope it's a wake up call to the German media and elsewhere but I'm not holding my breath. This sailboat saga tells me there are enough naive and some corrupted ones around.
If a journalist is solidly in agreement with Putin propaganda, the media organization that hires them needs to seriously investigate and act on it.
It looks like the big news companies, public and private (Der Spiegel, Die Zeit, ARD) scrubbed his articles and interviews from their websites.
Nobody would treat a journalist seriously if they repeated lines from North Korean article after article — Russia should not be treated any different.
posted by UN at 8:22 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
Looking at interviews with Hubert Seipel on public television (German language only, no subs): wow. This is how paid advertising looks like when you work for a dictator. It's horrific seeing him spewing russian propaganda just prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All the things we've heard on repeat from a number of people: it's NATOs fault for expanding eastwards; Putin doesn't want a war but his hand is forced; the troop build-up on Ukraine's border isn't a threat; people in Donbas and Luhansk are also worried about Ukrainian troops on their border too, etc.
Well, now we know without any doubt who pays for those lines: Putin. I hope it's a wake up call to the German media and elsewhere but I'm not holding my breath. This sailboat saga tells me there are enough naive and some corrupted ones around.
If a journalist is solidly in agreement with Putin propaganda, the media organization that hires them needs to seriously investigate and act on it.
It looks like the big news companies, public and private (Der Spiegel, Die Zeit, ARD) scrubbed his articles and interviews from their websites.
Nobody would treat a journalist seriously if they repeated lines from North Korean article after article — Russia should not be treated any different.
posted by UN at 8:22 AM on November 15, 2023 [9 favorites]
… thanks, making me agree with FDP…
But it - the point of Putin’s influence, and cheap it is bought - is one that can’t be underestimated: look at the US election of 2016.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:20 AM on November 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
But it - the point of Putin’s influence, and cheap it is bought - is one that can’t be underestimated: look at the US election of 2016.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:20 AM on November 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
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posted by pd0658a at 6:38 PM on November 11, 2023 [18 favorites]