Never Tell Me The Odds
April 28, 2012 5:39 PM Subscribe
Dr. Nick Bostrom
puts the probability of an existential event
wiping out humanity in this century at 10-20%.
Each time we make one of these new discoveries we are putting our hand into a big urn of balls and pulling up a new ball---so far we've pulled up white balls and grey balls, but maybe next time we will pull out a black ball, a discovery that spells disaster. At the moment we have no good way of putting the ball back into the urn if we don't like it. Once a discovery has been published there is no way of un-publishing it.
(Dr Bostrom, previously on Metafilter
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