Now that we're in the homestretch toward the November Presidential election, it's time to choose your favorite electoral-vote projection oracle. All of these are sites that monitor individual state polls and voter sentiment trendlines. Here are some options:
has been at it since 2004 and is a bonanza for polling stats junkies. Currently it's calling the electoral vote at 332 for Obama, 206 for Romney, with no toss-ups. (It takes 270 to win.) The site is run from The Netherlands by Andrew S. Tanenbaum
, who prepares daily commentary and news analysis. His leanings are Democratic; for those who are bothered by that, he suggests a Republican-leaning alternative:
, which currently calls it 303 for Obama, 235 for Romney. In business since 2003, and run by Scott Elliott, aka The Blogging Caesar
. Both of these sites tend not to call too many ties or tossups; they put leaning states into whichever column they are leaning toward. Other sites tend to take a more conservative approach. For example:
currently lists 126 electoral votes as toss-ups, with 221 secure for Obama and 191 for Romney. But RCP (which itself seems to lean Republican) also has a "No Tossups" option, which has it at 332 Obama, 206 Romney.
— The New York Times's FiveThirtyEight
blog somehow splits electoral votes and has Obama leading 308.2 to 229.8. It offers a number of nifty map and chart views along with daily analysis.
, run by Josh Putnam at Davidson College (Obama 332-206)
— Princeton Election Consortium
(Obama 308-230, or 225-181 with tossups)
— [leans Republican:] Race42012
(Obama 297-241, or Romney 235-221 with tossups) Updated weekly.
— [clearly partisan:] Rove.com
, run by Karl. He sees 184 safe for Obama, 146 for Romney, 122 tossups. Of those, he says 41 lean Obama and 45 lean Romney.
(leans left), Obama 231-191 with 116 tossups.