Global Trends 2030 Alternate Worlds
is the latest quadrennial report from The US National Intelligence Council (NIC)
. (Report: PDF
/ Talking Points: PDF
.) Similar to its predecessors
, '2030' attempts to predict 'alternate visions of the future.' An official blog
discusses their speculations. The Atlantic Council
has published a "companion publication": "Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World."
Among the predictions:
* Global population to reach 8.3bn people
* 60% of the world population living in urban environments
* Resource (especially food, water, energy) demand and scarcity to increase
* Poverty to decline
* US energy independence
* US, European and Japanese share of global income to drop from 56% today to well under half by 2030
* A decline of US influence internationally
* A rise of Asian international and economic influence, especially from China.
* No hegemonic power
* Increase in global migration as aging populations in both rich and developing countries trigger workforce shortages
* Nearly half the world population to suffer "severe water stress"
* Various technological advances in medicine and human augmentation
* The future of IT in 2030
For the last two days, the Atlantic Council has conducted a conference
on the NIC report. The event has ended, but a small video archive
of some of the speakers / presentations is available.
Media Coverage (You may sense a recurring motif here....)
Wired: U.S. Spies See Superhumans, Instant Cities by 2030
Network World, Privacy and Security Fanatic Blog: Intelligence report predicts IT in 2030, a world of cyborgs with Asia as top power
The Escapist: US Intelligence Body Reveals Cyborg-Infested Vision of Year 2030