MH17: Searching for the Truth
January 11, 2015 8:17 AM Subscribe
Starting from Belling the Cat's research German investigative organization Correct!v has put together a compelling case that the 53rd Russian Air Defense Brigade was responsible for the shooting down of Malaysian Air flight MH-17.
MH-17: Previously, Previouslier
Belling the Cat: Previously
MH-17: Previously, Previouslier
Belling the Cat: Previously
Well I'm sure now they'll be brought to justice.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:46 AM on January 11, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by leotrotsky at 8:46 AM on January 11, 2015 [3 favorites]
It did not serve the goals of Putin or Russia so we can assume at the least it was unintentional on their part.
That's a somewhat presumptive statement. The goals of Putin and/or Russia could include a constant intimidation and show-of-intent in non-Russian airspace, as has been happening over the waters around Western Europe for a while. As for the unintentional - someone pushed the fire button, and behind that someone was a chain of command.
posted by Wordshore at 9:02 AM on January 11, 2015 [5 favorites]
That's a somewhat presumptive statement. The goals of Putin and/or Russia could include a constant intimidation and show-of-intent in non-Russian airspace, as has been happening over the waters around Western Europe for a while. As for the unintentional - someone pushed the fire button, and behind that someone was a chain of command.
posted by Wordshore at 9:02 AM on January 11, 2015 [5 favorites]
As for the unintentional - someone pushed the fire button, and behind that someone was a chain of command.
Sure, but all the evidence points to them believing they were shooting down a Ukrainian military aircraft when they pushed that button, which would put this more in the category of criminal recklessness than an intentional atrocity.
If the Russians could admit that their regular army were on the Ukranian side of the border, a smarter way to handle this (and perfectly in keeping with the usual Russian propaganda line) might have been just to own up and point out that they're hardly the only great power whose wars have killed lots of civilians by mistake lately, so why the double standard? Instead they had to go for the big lie, in spite of how easily picked apart it is - perhaps not a smart move since now there's even more focus on the coverup, but I suppose there's every chance they can just stonewall until the world moves on.
posted by strangely stunted trees at 9:38 AM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
Sure, but all the evidence points to them believing they were shooting down a Ukrainian military aircraft when they pushed that button, which would put this more in the category of criminal recklessness than an intentional atrocity.
If the Russians could admit that their regular army were on the Ukranian side of the border, a smarter way to handle this (and perfectly in keeping with the usual Russian propaganda line) might have been just to own up and point out that they're hardly the only great power whose wars have killed lots of civilians by mistake lately, so why the double standard? Instead they had to go for the big lie, in spite of how easily picked apart it is - perhaps not a smart move since now there's even more focus on the coverup, but I suppose there's every chance they can just stonewall until the world moves on.
posted by strangely stunted trees at 9:38 AM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
His name is not really Smid – but he can’t reveal his true identity. He works for an organization that does not want to be involved in this issue. We can only assure you that Rupert Smid is a leading expert on Russian air combat systems.
Their argument rests upon their credibility. So who finances correctiv? If we had democracy and transparency we might not be looking at turtles all the way down here.
posted by bukvich at 9:42 AM on January 11, 2015
Their argument rests upon their credibility. So who finances correctiv? If we had democracy and transparency we might not be looking at turtles all the way down here.
posted by bukvich at 9:42 AM on January 11, 2015
His name is not really Smid – but he can’t reveal his true identity. He works for an organization that does not want to be involved in this issue
This bit is a nice illustration of the main problem the Dutch investigators have apparently run into: there are several organizations that have enough information about the incident to point the finger, but none of them want to be involved in this issue. And I think the article offers a great explanation to this: if they admitted to having this information, questions would be asked about why it was not used to prevent this tragedy.
posted by daniel_charms at 9:49 AM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
This bit is a nice illustration of the main problem the Dutch investigators have apparently run into: there are several organizations that have enough information about the incident to point the finger, but none of them want to be involved in this issue. And I think the article offers a great explanation to this: if they admitted to having this information, questions would be asked about why it was not used to prevent this tragedy.
posted by daniel_charms at 9:49 AM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
So, we've established that a civilian airliner was shot down by a missile while flying over a warzone where tank battles were going on... wait, what?
posted by ennui.bz at 9:51 AM on January 11, 2015 [8 favorites]
High above the conflict zone in June and early July, at an altitude above 10 000 meters, passenger jets continued to fly in the eastern Ukraine. In the week before the disaster hundreds of airplanes crossed the war zone, including Lufthansa flights.Why were European authorities signing off on flight-plans that were taking airliners over the Ukraine? It's entirely plausible that Russians shot down MH-17... what isn't plausible is that air traffic was still being sent over a warzone. It would have been more interesting to go interview some Dutch air authorities than play this game with Russian and Ukrainian military/intelligence officers and anonymous military experts.
After the Antonov was shot down, the Ukrainian air security authorities closed off the airspace just below 10 000 meters. Above that level civilian air traffic continued as before.
But even this altitude is a combat zone in modern air-tank warfare.
Besides the Su-25 planes, the Ukrainian air force also uses MiG-29 fighter jets that can reach an altitude of 18 000 meters. The jets then drop down to a lower combat altitude to attack enemy tanks and BUK units. A BUK team risks its life if it does not already attack an enemy plane at a high altitude during its approach.
Civil air traffic granted Ukrainian fighter pilots valuable seconds in their fight for survival against BUKs. Ukrainian fighter jets have the ability to hide just beneath passenger planes without the civilian passengers and crew even knowing of their presence. Anyone who targets a fighter jet from the ground risks shooting down a passenger aircraft.
posted by ennui.bz at 9:51 AM on January 11, 2015 [8 favorites]
Instead they had to go for the big lie, in spite of how easily picked apart it is - perhaps not a smart move since now there's even more focus on the coverup, but I suppose there's every chance they can just stonewall until the world moves on.
The world has to move on, because it's too painful to acknowledge what is almost certainly the truth: that Russia shot down a civilian airliner flying over the sovereign territory of a third nation and there's absolutely nothing we can do about it.
posted by zachlipton at 10:02 AM on January 11, 2015 [14 favorites]
The world has to move on, because it's too painful to acknowledge what is almost certainly the truth: that Russia shot down a civilian airliner flying over the sovereign territory of a third nation and there's absolutely nothing we can do about it.
posted by zachlipton at 10:02 AM on January 11, 2015 [14 favorites]
there's absolutely nothing we can do about it
And/or: there's nothing we want to do about it.
posted by maxwelton at 10:04 AM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
And/or: there's nothing we want to do about it.
posted by maxwelton at 10:04 AM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
"...what isn't plausible is that air traffic was still being sent over a warzone. It would have been more interesting to go interview some Dutch air authorities than play this game with Russian and Ukrainian military/intelligence officers and anonymous military experts."
posted by destro at 10:13 AM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by destro at 10:13 AM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
...what isn't plausible is that air traffic was still being sent over a warzone.
"[A]ircraft from many nations [...] routinely fly at high altitudes over tense conflict zones."
posted by daniel_charms at 10:20 AM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
"[A]ircraft from many nations [...] routinely fly at high altitudes over tense conflict zones."
posted by daniel_charms at 10:20 AM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
Their argument rests upon their credibility. So who finances correctiv?
I don't know too much about Correct!v in general, but the article does state:
posted by jferg at 10:25 AM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
I don't know too much about Correct!v in general, but the article does state:
In Cooperation with SPIEGEL and Algemeen Dagblad, Netherlands.at the bottom.
posted by jferg at 10:25 AM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
Thank you ennui.bz
There is nothing we can do about Russian / Ukrainian / Nato / Freedom fighters / gansgsters
But we sure as hell ought to ask the airspace authorities why they send civilian airlines through combat zones. But then I expect it comes down to How much does rerouting cost? Fuck it send them through thats why they have insurance.
posted by adamvasco at 10:25 AM on January 11, 2015
There is nothing we can do about Russian / Ukrainian / Nato / Freedom fighters / gansgsters
But we sure as hell ought to ask the airspace authorities why they send civilian airlines through combat zones. But then I expect it comes down to How much does rerouting cost? Fuck it send them through thats why they have insurance.
posted by adamvasco at 10:25 AM on January 11, 2015
Here's a little more about Correct!v.. It appears to be primarily funded by the Erich Brost Foundation/Institute for International Journalism (founded by Erich Brost).
posted by jferg at 10:36 AM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by jferg at 10:36 AM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
Given the information in the article its not clear to me that it wasn't the Ukrainian fighters hiding in the radar shadow of the civilian jets who were committing war crimes rather than whoever accidentally shot down the plane.
posted by Justinian at 11:08 AM on January 11, 2015
posted by Justinian at 11:08 AM on January 11, 2015
there's absolutely nothing we can do about it
And/or: there's nothing we want to do about it.
As you might have seen, it has been suggested that maybe there is something they can do.
posted by Hartham's Hugging Robots at 11:18 AM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
And/or: there's nothing we want to do about it.
As you might have seen, it has been suggested that maybe there is something they can do.
posted by Hartham's Hugging Robots at 11:18 AM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
the Ukrainian fighters hiding in the radar shadow of the civilian jets
There is no independent evidence of this other than the Russian military's claims. The article brings it up in a pretty underhanded way, "fighters jets have the ability" to do this, but they carefully avoid claiming that it has actually occurred. The idea that the mere existence of civilian flights above 30k feet constitutes Ukraine using "human shields" is ridiculous, in the same way that if an occupying army enters a city and fires indiscriminately the civilian population of that city does not constitute a "human shield" just because they didn't get out of the way. The article does a lot to play up the idea that the missile operator cannot distinguish anything at all about the targets it fires at (the MiG-29's max ceiling has nothing to do with what a real attack profile looks like) and that it must fire at everything or it risks certain destruction, which is just not true.
posted by kiltedtaco at 12:02 PM on January 11, 2015 [8 favorites]
There is no independent evidence of this other than the Russian military's claims. The article brings it up in a pretty underhanded way, "fighters jets have the ability" to do this, but they carefully avoid claiming that it has actually occurred. The idea that the mere existence of civilian flights above 30k feet constitutes Ukraine using "human shields" is ridiculous, in the same way that if an occupying army enters a city and fires indiscriminately the civilian population of that city does not constitute a "human shield" just because they didn't get out of the way. The article does a lot to play up the idea that the missile operator cannot distinguish anything at all about the targets it fires at (the MiG-29's max ceiling has nothing to do with what a real attack profile looks like) and that it must fire at everything or it risks certain destruction, which is just not true.
posted by kiltedtaco at 12:02 PM on January 11, 2015 [8 favorites]
Their argument rests upon their credibility.
True, but Russia — Putin — has no credibility outside Russia.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:55 PM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
True, but Russia — Putin — has no credibility outside Russia.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:55 PM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
The article brings it up in a pretty underhanded way, "fighters jets have the ability" to do this, but they carefully avoid claiming that it has actually occurred.
Yeah, you're right. That's pretty crappy.
In any case nobody will be held accountable for this. Nobody ever is.
posted by Justinian at 1:32 PM on January 11, 2015
Yeah, you're right. That's pretty crappy.
In any case nobody will be held accountable for this. Nobody ever is.
posted by Justinian at 1:32 PM on January 11, 2015
In any case nobody will be held accountable for this. Nobody ever is.
The corporal who errantly fired the missile and his direct commander are probably working in north Siberia now so strictly speaking this may not be true.
posted by bukvich at 2:00 PM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
The corporal who errantly fired the missile and his direct commander are probably working in north Siberia now so strictly speaking this may not be true.
posted by bukvich at 2:00 PM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
I dunno, when the US shoots down passenger jets we give those responsible medals and commendations. Maybe Russia is similar.
posted by Justinian at 2:04 PM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 2:04 PM on January 11, 2015 [4 favorites]
I'm not pretending to have any of the answers to this, but I spoke at some length with Polk award-winning journalist Robert Parry, and a handful of retired U.S. intelligence officials about what their contacts currently within U.S. intelligence community had to say about the downing of MH17.
So, for what that's worth, they allege that there's always been a strong contingent within the U.S. intelligence community that suspects it may have been Ukrainian forces. Here's the relevant pull-quote from the piece I wrote about this at Gawker, back in mid-August:
Maybe it is just that I find Ihor Kolomoisky, with his Bond villain shark tank in his office, such an exciting potential suspect.
Let the record also show that I am, emphatically, not a Putin fan.
posted by ProfLinusPauling at 2:38 PM on January 11, 2015 [7 favorites]
So, for what that's worth, they allege that there's always been a strong contingent within the U.S. intelligence community that suspects it may have been Ukrainian forces. Here's the relevant pull-quote from the piece I wrote about this at Gawker, back in mid-August:
An anonymous source that Robert Parry says "has been accurate in the past, though that's not a guarantee" has told him that the U.S. intelligence community does have detailed satellite imagery of the SA-11 Buk missile battery that likely downed MH17—and that the system was surrounded by troops dressed in Ukrainian government uniforms. CIA analysts, the source noted, saw what appeared to be beer bottles scattered around the Buk missile site and suspect that the soldiers involved might be undisciplined, insubordinate, or possibly drunk. Granted: Based solely on the satellite photos, the bottles could have also been O'Douls, or Stewart's Fountain Classics®, or a weird mass of bottle-shaped rocks.I am grateful for this fresh investigation by Correct!v, which for all I really know, may be correct in its pointing at Russia. (However, I am a little uneasy about anonymous sources like this Rupert Smid, as well as the social media evidence so often cited in this case. Parry, et. al.'s sources may be anonymous, but at least they are anonymous U.S. officials going against the official U.S. stance --- which for me holds some weight.)
"The one thing that I was told—and I was told this very specifically—was that the evidence does not implicate President Poroshenko or Prime Minister Yatsenyuk," Parry says.
"The suggestion was that—if the Ukrainian government turns out to have been responsible—that it would have been something done by the more extremist factions, possibly one of the oligarchs, one or more of the oligarchs, who have their own power bases and are now incorporated into the government since the February 26th coup. So that's more the avenue that I am told some of the analysts have been pursuing."
"And that includes the possible motive of a botched attempt to take down Putin's plane, although that's only one of a couple different possibilities that they're looking at in this area. So it appears that the analysts are trying to do a thorough job of exploring all the different possibilities and not just jumping to one conclusion." This despite what Parry describes as "intense pressure" from Secretary Kerry to find evidence bolstering the version of events that he's put forth, personally, in repeated media appearances since the tragedy. (You can read more of Parry's reporting on the U.S. intelligence here.)
When Ukraine lost control of Crimea, the central government made the controversial move of handing governorships in the eastern regions to some of the nation's most powerful billionaires, post-Soviet-era resource barons whose economic sway over the locals might tamp down ethnically Russian unrest. Ihor Kolomoisky, a 51-year-old banking tycoon, is currently the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region in eastern Ukraine. According to the Wall Street Journal, he's personally spending around $10 million per month on salaries for militia and police units—which his aides call "Kolomoisky's Army" though portions ostensibly answer to Ukraine's army and interior ministry. The comparatively cash-poor Serhiy Taruta, a metallurgy and agribusiness millionaire worth $479 million according to Forbes, was appointed governor of Donetsk.
"Certainly some politicians are questioning exactly what will happen to these battalions once the operation in the east is complete. The concern is that they will serve as the private armies of various oligarchs that are financing them, including Taruta, and that this will have long-term repercussions for the state," a political analyst in Kiev told VICE News.
Moscow is already accusing Kolomoisky of responsibility for the downing of MH17. If the U.S. intelligence community reaches the same conclusion, he will make a fun, glamorous suspect for the international community: a petty independent actor with a lot to gain from a unified Ukraine, a giant shark tank in his personal office, and a history of strong-arm tactics that have made Kolomoisky feared/loathed in both business and Europe's Jewish community groups.
Vice President Joe Biden's son, Hunter, and his chum Devon Archer (a co-partner at an equities fund with John Kerry's stepson, Christopher Heinz), recently joined the board of the private Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma Holdings, which Kolomoisky owns.
Plus, Kolomoisky's forces have a track record of reckless behavior, including an incident a few weeks ago in which they kidnapped a Bloomberg news reporter, Stepan Kravchenko. After being released, Kravchenko later described them as "bored Russian-speakers, the blood and muscle of a conflict where random hatred reigns on both sides." Christ. Maybe this is the kind of conflict where a bunch of drunk hooligans could cause World War III just by fooling around with a Buk? Who knows?
Maybe it is just that I find Ihor Kolomoisky, with his Bond villain shark tank in his office, such an exciting potential suspect.
Let the record also show that I am, emphatically, not a Putin fan.
posted by ProfLinusPauling at 2:38 PM on January 11, 2015 [7 favorites]
I really wonder how much control of the oligarchs and battalions either side has.
Russia's Igor Strelkov: I Am Responsible for War in Eastern Ukraine
Russia's Igor Strelkov: I Am Responsible for War in Eastern Ukraine
"I was the one who pulled the trigger of this war," Strelkov said in an interview published Thursday with Russia's Zavtra newspaper, which espouses imperialist views.posted by Golden Eternity at 2:55 PM on January 11, 2015 [3 favorites]
"If our unit hadn't crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out — like in [the Ukrainian city of] Kharkiv, like in Odessa," Strelkov, who uses that nom-de-guerre meaning "Shooter" to replace his last name Girkin, was quoted as saying.
"There would have been several dozen killed, burned, detained. And that would have been the end of it. But the flywheel of the war, which is continuing to this day, was spun by our unit. We mixed up all the cards on the table," he said.
a giant shark tank in his personal office
Does he post to instagram? Anybody have a link to .jpg's? I want to copy!
posted by bukvich at 3:30 PM on January 11, 2015
Does he post to instagram? Anybody have a link to .jpg's? I want to copy!
posted by bukvich at 3:30 PM on January 11, 2015
A little more about the maniac Kolomoisky
posted by adamvasco at 4:44 PM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 4:44 PM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
As you might have seen, it has been suggested that maybe there is something they can do.
Given the basic premise there is that SA is both the driver of and can stand Brent crude at $90/bbl, I'm a bit skeptical given that it's fallen to $50/bbl and change. Either they can stand it being a lot lower than $90 (and perhaps so can Putin), or they're not really the driver. A lot of sources have been citing, actually, that US domestic oil production has exploded (given lead times, this is mostly investment based on a $100 price tag), and that recessionary factors in China and the eurozone are making demand slump. Whereas the US would in years past have easily absorbed much of this oversupply, now we're a net exporter and so the bubble is bursting. IOW not so much a strategic move as normal economic gears in motion.
posted by dhartung at 5:40 PM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
Given the basic premise there is that SA is both the driver of and can stand Brent crude at $90/bbl, I'm a bit skeptical given that it's fallen to $50/bbl and change. Either they can stand it being a lot lower than $90 (and perhaps so can Putin), or they're not really the driver. A lot of sources have been citing, actually, that US domestic oil production has exploded (given lead times, this is mostly investment based on a $100 price tag), and that recessionary factors in China and the eurozone are making demand slump. Whereas the US would in years past have easily absorbed much of this oversupply, now we're a net exporter and so the bubble is bursting. IOW not so much a strategic move as normal economic gears in motion.
posted by dhartung at 5:40 PM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
My analysis is that men with shark tanks generally have reasons.
I would start with the meat source and trace back.
I would imagine SA could sustain 32 months at an average of 70$bbl.The question is can Putin. Well that's all fine but his...spectre for lack, is the factor that could easily escalate. I see no real end game were Putin does not survive this crude siege.
So I will gamble a political deal, the third way which has its own bugbears.
posted by clavdivs at 6:43 PM on January 11, 2015
I would start with the meat source and trace back.
I would imagine SA could sustain 32 months at an average of 70$bbl.The question is can Putin. Well that's all fine but his...spectre for lack, is the factor that could easily escalate. I see no real end game were Putin does not survive this crude siege.
So I will gamble a political deal, the third way which has its own bugbears.
posted by clavdivs at 6:43 PM on January 11, 2015
Was this a war crime or just a crime?
If Russia had declared the area a closed military zone, it would have been an act of war, one that might as well have been preceded by a declaration of war. It would also have caused airlines to stay the hell away, and averted this disaster.
Going to war without bothering to take that step is worse than a crime. It's a blunder. It laid bare the Russian army's less than terrifying operational competence.
posted by ocschwar at 7:11 PM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
If Russia had declared the area a closed military zone, it would have been an act of war, one that might as well have been preceded by a declaration of war. It would also have caused airlines to stay the hell away, and averted this disaster.
Going to war without bothering to take that step is worse than a crime. It's a blunder. It laid bare the Russian army's less than terrifying operational competence.
posted by ocschwar at 7:11 PM on January 11, 2015 [1 favorite]
If anyone has trouble reading that WSJ link about Ihor, paste this URL into a Google search and click the first result:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-secret-weapon-feisty-oligarch-ihor-kolomoisky-1403886665
posted by aydeejones at 7:32 PM on January 11, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-secret-weapon-feisty-oligarch-ihor-kolomoisky-1403886665
posted by aydeejones at 7:32 PM on January 11, 2015
Leviathan - a new Russian masterpiece (Golden Globe Winner)
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:48 PM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
Leviathan shows a world governed by drunken, depressed, aggressive men ...Trailer. It seems this is represents the Kremlin's view of the whole world pretty well.
Officials talk endlessly about the Russian criminal code, giving chapter and verse from the rule book. But it is all a cynical nonsense. What counts is money and power. At the film's courtroom scenes at the beginning and end, the court president babbles through the charges and verdicts robotically. It is gibberish.
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:48 PM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]
And/or: there's nothing we want to do about it.
What can we do? Sanctions? We're already doing that, and they're actually hurting Russia badly. Doubly so is the price of oil right now, which has lowered the demand for natural gas, which is a huge Russian export. There is some speculation (but no real proof) that the current low price of oil has been engineered by a combination of the US and Saudi Arabia specifically to harm Russian energy exports (and, as a bonus, provide a boost to the stalling Chinese and slumping Euro economies.) Take all that with a grain of salt, but the fact that crude has plummeted is definitely hurting Putin.
Next step up is a shooting war. Do you really think having the two largest nuclear powers in the world in direct military conflict is a wise idea?
When one of the possible end states is "Total destruction of every city in the North American and Eurasian continents, plus more" then you *really* have to be careful.
posted by eriko at 5:25 AM on January 12, 2015
What can we do? Sanctions? We're already doing that, and they're actually hurting Russia badly. Doubly so is the price of oil right now, which has lowered the demand for natural gas, which is a huge Russian export. There is some speculation (but no real proof) that the current low price of oil has been engineered by a combination of the US and Saudi Arabia specifically to harm Russian energy exports (and, as a bonus, provide a boost to the stalling Chinese and slumping Euro economies.) Take all that with a grain of salt, but the fact that crude has plummeted is definitely hurting Putin.
Next step up is a shooting war. Do you really think having the two largest nuclear powers in the world in direct military conflict is a wise idea?
When one of the possible end states is "Total destruction of every city in the North American and Eurasian continents, plus more" then you *really* have to be careful.
posted by eriko at 5:25 AM on January 12, 2015
Aren't the current sanctions designed to avoid harming too many business interests? I'm likely outdated but they could ask western businesses to take more financial pain. And Obama ruled out military intervention in the Ukraine, maybe including supplying weapons.
posted by jeffburdges at 6:43 AM on January 12, 2015
posted by jeffburdges at 6:43 AM on January 12, 2015
Another Fine Product From The Nonsense Factory: What is happening in Ukraine at the moment is not a "war" engaging the laws of war - its just barbarism.Also a presumptive statement. In what ways is the badly-camouflaged invasion of Crimea by Russia not engaging "the laws of war"? And what exactly are the "laws of war", Fluellen?
Is this somehow worse, or less "legal", than Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait? The US 2002 invasion of Iraq? The 2014 separatist violence of ISIS/ISIL in northern Iraq? Just to grab a few recent wars...
IRDC if it's a war crime or a crime-crime; I doubt anything will come of it, and yet... sometimes. If we don't yell and scream, however, there's no chance.
posted by IAmBroom at 10:24 AM on January 12, 2015 [1 favorite]
There are people who would call it war at this point, but it's a strange war. It's mainly being fought with heavy artillery, some of it launched from inside Russia. There's been a months long ongoing battle at the Donetsk airport. I've heard Russia has more tanks inside Ukraine than all European and NATO tanks put together. Russia does not use its aircraft, I guess to keep up the pretense of a civil war rather than Russian invasion. It doesn't seem clear what Russia is doing. The logical move seems to be for them to annex "Novorossiya" including a land bridge to Crimea. Maybe they want to achieve that without further escalation somehow. It is weird that they haven't even been able to clear the airport.
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:13 PM on January 12, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Golden Eternity at 4:13 PM on January 12, 2015 [1 favorite]
Oops. That should have read "all European NATO tanks."
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:33 PM on January 12, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 9:33 PM on January 12, 2015
Do NATO have tanks outside Europe?
IKWYM but putins' air incursion into Sweden was another matter a few weeks back. Planes cost big rubles to fly around buzzing Ukraine though that would not preclude aerial recon.
Planes are a pretty good defense measure against tanks especially if you know we're most of them are.
I do think a political solution will present itself but maybe not so soon.
posted by clavdivs at 1:38 AM on January 13, 2015
IKWYM but putins' air incursion into Sweden was another matter a few weeks back. Planes cost big rubles to fly around buzzing Ukraine though that would not preclude aerial recon.
Planes are a pretty good defense measure against tanks especially if you know we're most of them are.
I do think a political solution will present itself but maybe not so soon.
posted by clavdivs at 1:38 AM on January 13, 2015
I don't think Ukraine is really using their aircraft anymore either because Russia has so much advanced AA in place, and Ukraine doesn't have effective enough countermeasures.
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:37 AM on January 13, 2015
posted by Golden Eternity at 10:37 AM on January 13, 2015
You mean anti-radar as in Counter measures? Agreed. If anti-AA, almost the same as they employ radar even barreled AA. (AA like 20mm etc.)
Both sides are adept at low altitude recon, this is an advantage for finding large dispositions.
posted by clavdivs at 4:52 PM on January 13, 2015
Both sides are adept at low altitude recon, this is an advantage for finding large dispositions.
posted by clavdivs at 4:52 PM on January 13, 2015
Rockets rain on eastern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, killing at least 30
All of the dead were reported to be civilians. Two of them were children, according to Secretary of the Mariupol City Council Andriy Fedai, as cited by Interfax news service. ... At least 97 people were injured ...posted by Golden Eternity at 10:33 AM on January 24, 2015
[...]
Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko said in a statement, "The bloody murders by pro-Russian terrorists of dozens of civilians that wounded nearly a hundred people in Mariupol is not just a terrorist act. This is a crime against humanity."
'The Payback Will Be Ruthless': Scholar's Open Letter To Russia Pulls No Punches
posted by Golden Eternity at 5:15 PM on January 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Golden Eternity at 5:15 PM on January 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
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posted by Another Fine Product From The Nonsense Factory at 8:39 AM on January 11, 2015 [2 favorites]