"It's something we must do, and we can do, and we will do."
May 1, 2015 2:34 AM Subscribe
Tesla Powerwall Battery Economics: Almost There - "Elon Musk announced Tesla's home / business battery today. [video] tl;dr: It'll get enthusiastic early adopters to buy. The economics are almost there to make it cost effective for a wide market... That said, for large scale grid deployment (outside of the home), it still looks like flow batteries[1] and advanced compressed air[2] are likely to be far cheaper in the long run."
Press coverage:
-Power to the People
-Towards an empathic civilisation
-Why Renewables Can't Be Stopped
-A solar future isn't just likely — it's inevitable
-Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables
-While Coal Loses Nearly 50,000 Jobs, Wind and Solar Add 79,000
-Clean Energy Revolution Is Ahead of Schedule
-The Age of Wind and Solar Is Closer Than You Think
-LightSail's Secret Plan to Slash the Costs of Compressed Air Energy Storage
-Ultra-fast charging aluminum battery offers safe alternative to conventional batteries
-Dr. Amy Prieto's interview starts at the 23:00 minute mark
-The man who brought us the lithium-ion battery at the age of 57 has an idea for a new one at 92
-Batteries suit offers clues to Apple's car ambitions
-Here's Why Apple Is Building Solar Farms in China
-Is Moore's Law Really a Fair Comparison for Solar? [1,2,3]
Press coverage:
- Elon Musk's Grand Plan to Power the World With Batteries - "Our goal here is to fundamentally change the way the world uses energy... At the extreme scale."
- Elon Musk unveils Tesla Powerwall batteries to 'change the world' - "It sounds crazy, but we want to change the entire energy infrastructure of the world to zero carbon... all we need [is to roll out 2 billion Powerwalls]. That seems like a crazy number, but it's comparable to the number of cars and trucks on the road [around the world] — and they get completely refreshed every 20 years."
- Tesla's new "Powerwall" home battery will cost $3,500 for 10kWh units - "Musk also noted that the $5 billion gigafactory being built in Reno, Nevada could be seen as separate product in an of itself. Lithium-ion battery production is a bottleneck in increasing the supply of greener energy, he admitted, adding, 'the way we think about the gigafactory is not like a factory with a bunch of off-the-shelf machinery, but we're thinking of it as a machine itself—gigafactory version one.' "
- Tesla's $3,000 Powerwall Will Let Households Run Entirely On Solar Energy - "Musk said he believes they can help people in emerging markets or remote locations 'leapfrog' the need for existing power systems, in a similar way that mobile phones have become more important than landlines in remote parts of the world... 'This is within the power of humanity to do... It is not impossible, it is something that we can do. But there's going to [need to] be other companies involved.' "
- Elon Musk launches Tesla's move into energy storage - " 'There will need to be many Gigafactories in the future', Mr Musk said, if the technology is to become widely enough used to tackle climate change. 'This is not something that we expect Tesla to do alone.' He said the company would 'open source' its factory and battery designs, as it has with other technologies, to allow its innovations to be shared."
- Tesla unveils the 'missing piece’ — a battery to change the world - "All are chasing the same vision: a world in which homes and businesses generate and store their own electricity, relying on the grid for only a small portion of their needs. Indeed, the solar arrays and batteries could feed power onto the grid when necessary. Proponents believe widespread blackouts would become a thing of the past... With the number of solar installations rising rapidly, utilities fear that the combination of solar and storage could plunge them into a 'death spiral' of shrinking revenue."
- Tesla batteries to jump-start energy storage industry for businesses, homes - " 'We are talking about trying to change the fundamental energy infrastructure of the world', Musk said... This new system will integrate many sources of electricity including home-based 'nanogrids' that store energy from rooftop solar panels to larger microgrids that act as energy reservoir for neighborhoods, military bases and commercial establishments."
- Elon Musk just gave the best tech keynote I've ever seen - "I'm sure many people will disagree — I mean, how can you compete with Steve Jobs introducing the iPhone in 2007 — but ultimately Jobs was selling a better smartphone. Musk is selling a better future... First of all, it was short, clocking in at about 20 minutes. Musk didn't waste anybody's time. He used that time to present a problem of critical importance (eliminating humanity's use of fossil fuels), explained how it can be addressed, and offered a plausible solution in the form of a new product — one that's priced within reach of a lot of people and available to order."
-Power to the People
-Towards an empathic civilisation
-Why Renewables Can't Be Stopped
-A solar future isn't just likely — it's inevitable
-Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables
-While Coal Loses Nearly 50,000 Jobs, Wind and Solar Add 79,000
-Clean Energy Revolution Is Ahead of Schedule
-The Age of Wind and Solar Is Closer Than You Think
-LightSail's Secret Plan to Slash the Costs of Compressed Air Energy Storage
-Ultra-fast charging aluminum battery offers safe alternative to conventional batteries
-Dr. Amy Prieto's interview starts at the 23:00 minute mark
-The man who brought us the lithium-ion battery at the age of 57 has an idea for a new one at 92
-Batteries suit offers clues to Apple's car ambitions
-Here's Why Apple Is Building Solar Farms in China
-Is Moore's Law Really a Fair Comparison for Solar? [1,2,3]
"This entire night, everything you are experiencing, is stored sunlight."
That's the money statement, right there.
Elon Musk is brilliant with this kind of thing.
posted by hippybear at 2:55 AM on May 1, 2015 [10 favorites]
That's the money statement, right there.
Elon Musk is brilliant with this kind of thing.
posted by hippybear at 2:55 AM on May 1, 2015 [10 favorites]
Solar Power Battle Puts Hawaii at Forefront of Worldwide Changes
Installers — who saw their fast-growing businesses slow to a trickle — are also frustrated with the pace. For those who can afford it, said James Whitcomb, chief executive of Haleakala Solar, which he started in 1977, the answer may lie in a more radical solution: Avoid the utility and its grid altogether.
Customers are increasingly asking about the batteries that he often puts in along with the solar panels, allowing them to store the power they generate during the day for use at night. It is more expensive, but it breaks consumer reliance on the utility’s network of power lines.
“I’ve actually taken people right off the grid,” he said, including a couple who got tired of waiting for Hawaiian Electric to approve their solar system and expressed no interest in returning to utility service. “The lumbering big utilities that are so used to taking three months to study this and then six months to do that — what they don’t understand is that things are moving at the speed of business. Like with digital photography — this is inevitable.”
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:56 AM on May 1, 2015 [6 favorites]
Installers — who saw their fast-growing businesses slow to a trickle — are also frustrated with the pace. For those who can afford it, said James Whitcomb, chief executive of Haleakala Solar, which he started in 1977, the answer may lie in a more radical solution: Avoid the utility and its grid altogether.
Customers are increasingly asking about the batteries that he often puts in along with the solar panels, allowing them to store the power they generate during the day for use at night. It is more expensive, but it breaks consumer reliance on the utility’s network of power lines.
“I’ve actually taken people right off the grid,” he said, including a couple who got tired of waiting for Hawaiian Electric to approve their solar system and expressed no interest in returning to utility service. “The lumbering big utilities that are so used to taking three months to study this and then six months to do that — what they don’t understand is that things are moving at the speed of business. Like with digital photography — this is inevitable.”
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:56 AM on May 1, 2015 [6 favorites]
Another day, another miracle battery.
posted by fairmettle at 3:14 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by fairmettle at 3:14 AM on May 1, 2015
Except this one isn't a "miracle" battery. It's just a large collection of the very same lithium-ion cells that power your laptop.
Tesla's main innovation here is in thermal and electronic management, packaging, and manufacturing scale. It's not miraculous, just sound engineering.
posted by flabdablet at 3:27 AM on May 1, 2015 [21 favorites]
Tesla's main innovation here is in thermal and electronic management, packaging, and manufacturing scale. It's not miraculous, just sound engineering.
posted by flabdablet at 3:27 AM on May 1, 2015 [21 favorites]
So how useful are they in a house without its own generation capacity? Is it still a gain to be charging them when demand-based pricing drops at night? If so, why wouldn't the power companies just stop offering that?
posted by wenestvedt at 3:33 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by wenestvedt at 3:33 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I'm not positive but from the presentation yesterday it seems like the only input to this is from solar panels. It doesn't seem like you can store energy from the grid.
One of the animations showed a green color expanding from house to house so maybe in the future you'll be able to connect powerwalls and create a kind of neighborhood grid. That'd be pretty cool.
posted by jmccw at 3:41 AM on May 1, 2015
One of the animations showed a green color expanding from house to house so maybe in the future you'll be able to connect powerwalls and create a kind of neighborhood grid. That'd be pretty cool.
posted by jmccw at 3:41 AM on May 1, 2015
This is intriguing, that Hawaii article that lungful posted is also interesting. I was in Florida (The "Sunshine State") a few weeks ago and I was struck by how absent solar power was. Turns out that regulation backed by the utility companies makes it very difficult for consumers to implement solar solutions there, so most people don't bother.
Even if the tech is sound, the biggest challenge to Tesla Powerwall will likely be the resistance the power companies are likely to create.
Resistance, heh
posted by jeremias at 4:05 AM on May 1, 2015 [6 favorites]
Even if the tech is sound, the biggest challenge to Tesla Powerwall will likely be the resistance the power companies are likely to create.
Resistance, heh
posted by jeremias at 4:05 AM on May 1, 2015 [6 favorites]
I heard a piece about this on CBC yesterday. It sounds pretty cool.
Part of the conversation was about the manufacturing of them. I think the question was something around the environmental aspect and he said that until any ecological concerns in the manufacturing are addressed he can't consider it wholly environmentally sound. End use is only one piece of what needs to be worked on. So it does sound like this question is not something he's avoiding.
posted by Jalliah at 4:06 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Part of the conversation was about the manufacturing of them. I think the question was something around the environmental aspect and he said that until any ecological concerns in the manufacturing are addressed he can't consider it wholly environmentally sound. End use is only one piece of what needs to be worked on. So it does sound like this question is not something he's avoiding.
posted by Jalliah at 4:06 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
So how useful are they in a house without its own generation capacity? Is it still a gain to be charging them when demand-based pricing drops at night? If so, why wouldn't the power companies just stop offering that?
They will, eventually. Or they'll start dynamically adjusting the rate second by second based on which batteries are charging and which are discharging.
What's happening right now is like the very beginning of computer-assisted stock trading. The future is something more like high frequency trading.
The end result of this will be the end to end "smart grid". It has to be, the utilities wont be caught with their pants down paying people any significant amount of money here. This is the wild west, when this is an established thing the gains and losses will be measured in cents or even smaller fractions.
The upside of having enough of these to make the system work that way though is that it wont matter at all how the power is generated. It could be people riding exercise bikes. Problems like "solar only works during the day!" or "wind only works when there's enough of it!" just wont matter.
I can't even think of another change on this scale when it comes to electricity or electronics. It's not the equivalent of when laptop batteries started lasted 10-12 or even more hours instead of 2-4 and a lot of people quit even bothering with carrying chargers, it's like a huge mainframes in offices to smartphones type of jump.
I'm also interested to see how the class warfare aspect of it works. When utilities are subsidizing home batteries the same way they subsidize efficient furnaces(to the point that even a good one is $500, or whatever)... the difference will be whether you can afford to generate. Do you essentially "rent" power by paying a bill every month, albeit lower with the battery? Or do you install a solar array or something, put down a big lump sum, and just never pay a bill again. Who pays and who doesn't pay is going to be the next digital divide, but with all kinds of disgusting "free rider" republican welfare queen baggage attached.
Who knows if i'll even live long enough to see that point though. This will only happen if we get enough batteries in place to abandon fossil fuel based electricity generation...
posted by emptythought at 4:29 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
They will, eventually. Or they'll start dynamically adjusting the rate second by second based on which batteries are charging and which are discharging.
What's happening right now is like the very beginning of computer-assisted stock trading. The future is something more like high frequency trading.
The end result of this will be the end to end "smart grid". It has to be, the utilities wont be caught with their pants down paying people any significant amount of money here. This is the wild west, when this is an established thing the gains and losses will be measured in cents or even smaller fractions.
The upside of having enough of these to make the system work that way though is that it wont matter at all how the power is generated. It could be people riding exercise bikes. Problems like "solar only works during the day!" or "wind only works when there's enough of it!" just wont matter.
I can't even think of another change on this scale when it comes to electricity or electronics. It's not the equivalent of when laptop batteries started lasted 10-12 or even more hours instead of 2-4 and a lot of people quit even bothering with carrying chargers, it's like a huge mainframes in offices to smartphones type of jump.
I'm also interested to see how the class warfare aspect of it works. When utilities are subsidizing home batteries the same way they subsidize efficient furnaces(to the point that even a good one is $500, or whatever)... the difference will be whether you can afford to generate. Do you essentially "rent" power by paying a bill every month, albeit lower with the battery? Or do you install a solar array or something, put down a big lump sum, and just never pay a bill again. Who pays and who doesn't pay is going to be the next digital divide, but with all kinds of disgusting "free rider" republican welfare queen baggage attached.
Who knows if i'll even live long enough to see that point though. This will only happen if we get enough batteries in place to abandon fossil fuel based electricity generation...
posted by emptythought at 4:29 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
I can't even think of another change on this scale when it comes to electricity or electronics. It's not the equivalent of when laptop batteries started lasted 10-12 or even more hours instead of 2-4 and a lot of people quit even bothering with carrying chargers, it's like a huge mainframes in offices to smartphones type of jump.
Agreed. It's similar to the transition between when computers transitioned from being isolated nodes to connected nodes. Of course, the power grid has always been "connected", but until recently, the promise of decentralization has been a challenge.
In particular, harvesting solar power in a meaningful way can be done much more easily by distributed means.
Looking further forward, I hope this will lead to further developments in localized power generation, including efficient generators, cogeneration, and localized reclamation of waste products (fry oil, paper waste, bagasse, etc) as raw material for power generation.
posted by theorique at 4:40 AM on May 1, 2015
Agreed. It's similar to the transition between when computers transitioned from being isolated nodes to connected nodes. Of course, the power grid has always been "connected", but until recently, the promise of decentralization has been a challenge.
In particular, harvesting solar power in a meaningful way can be done much more easily by distributed means.
Looking further forward, I hope this will lead to further developments in localized power generation, including efficient generators, cogeneration, and localized reclamation of waste products (fry oil, paper waste, bagasse, etc) as raw material for power generation.
posted by theorique at 4:40 AM on May 1, 2015
Grid operators in the US do business under a regulatory regime under which they are entitled to guaranteed return on their capital investments, including those they might make to facilitate better contribution of power to the grid by distributed solar generation. If solar and home batteries reduce the amount of kwh that people consume from the grid, grid operators will be permitted to raise prices to offset the loss of delivery fees. The manner in which they raise prices will importantly pick winners and losers. Moving to a significant fixed connection charge will penalize those who invest in solar and storage; moving to much higher prices per kwh consumed will penalize those who do not so invest (and encourage that investment, of course).
Power generators are, for the most part, not regulated or subsidized. Large scale solar plus storage will dramatically upset the present business model. Among other things, if solar plus storage provides most people most of their consumption most of the time, "baseload" plants (the coal and nuclear plants designed to run around the clock at a steady rate of generation) will lose a lot of demand. The generation system is now optimized to produce the most power at the hottest days of the years (when air conditioning is running full out), and of course that's when solar will be generating at its maximum other than in the most tropical of climates, where humidity can result in AC consumption even when the weather is overcast.
And this is to say nothing of the potential for solar plus storage to undermine the non-electric heating "grid" of natural gas lines and propane and fuel oil distribution.
posted by MattD at 5:08 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Power generators are, for the most part, not regulated or subsidized. Large scale solar plus storage will dramatically upset the present business model. Among other things, if solar plus storage provides most people most of their consumption most of the time, "baseload" plants (the coal and nuclear plants designed to run around the clock at a steady rate of generation) will lose a lot of demand. The generation system is now optimized to produce the most power at the hottest days of the years (when air conditioning is running full out), and of course that's when solar will be generating at its maximum other than in the most tropical of climates, where humidity can result in AC consumption even when the weather is overcast.
And this is to say nothing of the potential for solar plus storage to undermine the non-electric heating "grid" of natural gas lines and propane and fuel oil distribution.
posted by MattD at 5:08 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
wenestvedt: "So how useful are they in a house without its own generation capacity? Is it still a gain to be charging them when demand-based pricing drops at night? If so, why wouldn't the power companies just stop offering that?"
Is that common? Our power company just charges a flat rate per KWH no matter what time of day we use it.
posted by octothorpe at 5:40 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Is that common? Our power company just charges a flat rate per KWH no matter what time of day we use it.
posted by octothorpe at 5:40 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
This is definitely very, very cool, but I still can't see how he's going to get over a couple of key issues. (Some of which have been addressed upthread.) Namely:
Durability/repairability - Lithium-ion batteries don't last forever, so there has to be a calculation and provision for replacing bad cells in these things. Could definitely harm the economics.
Environmental impact - do we really have the ability to make that many chemical cells without tearing the planet up to do it? This strikes me as fatal, at least insofar as commercial installations go - your compressed air or molten salt storage pool doesn't require exotic chemicals.
Safety - yes, he's got thermal regulation and controls in place, but what's keeping this thing from turning into a gigantic pipe bomb in a house fire?
posted by fifthrider at 5:46 AM on May 1, 2015
Durability/repairability - Lithium-ion batteries don't last forever, so there has to be a calculation and provision for replacing bad cells in these things. Could definitely harm the economics.
Environmental impact - do we really have the ability to make that many chemical cells without tearing the planet up to do it? This strikes me as fatal, at least insofar as commercial installations go - your compressed air or molten salt storage pool doesn't require exotic chemicals.
Safety - yes, he's got thermal regulation and controls in place, but what's keeping this thing from turning into a gigantic pipe bomb in a house fire?
posted by fifthrider at 5:46 AM on May 1, 2015
If solar and home batteries reduce the amount of kwh that people consume from the grid, grid operators will be permitted to raise prices to offset the loss of delivery fees.
The Hawaii article linked in a comment above made the point that some people frustrated with the delays and fees from the utility were already opting to install enough solar capacity to simply disconnect themselves from the grid. If solar panel and battery prices continue to drop, it will become simpler (and cheaper) to just disconnect, making it immaterial how much the utility is trying to charge or how the interconnection sophistication increases.
The caveat to this is that only homeowners, and at least somewhat affluent homeowners at that, will have access to this. What landlord in their right mind would ever install solar so that their tenants could save money?
posted by Dip Flash at 5:49 AM on May 1, 2015
The Hawaii article linked in a comment above made the point that some people frustrated with the delays and fees from the utility were already opting to install enough solar capacity to simply disconnect themselves from the grid. If solar panel and battery prices continue to drop, it will become simpler (and cheaper) to just disconnect, making it immaterial how much the utility is trying to charge or how the interconnection sophistication increases.
The caveat to this is that only homeowners, and at least somewhat affluent homeowners at that, will have access to this. What landlord in their right mind would ever install solar so that their tenants could save money?
posted by Dip Flash at 5:49 AM on May 1, 2015
Which is all a long-winded way of saying that I see this as having a lot of the same scaleability problms as Google's wifi balloon project: where the Loon devices would use up unsustainable amounts of helium in a large-scale deployment, building lots and lots of Power Walls would probably involve multiplying our current chemical battery production by a goodly factor. Unless Tesla is sitting on a brilliant new way of cleanly and efficiently recycling used cells, this could be a serious impediment.
posted by fifthrider at 5:51 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by fifthrider at 5:51 AM on May 1, 2015
fifthrider, another problem is that there isn't all that much readily available lithium out there, and it's going to become more expensive in the near future.
The technology innovation here might be something like planning/building solar electric plants to harvest lithium from seawater and then waiting a few years until there's enough to make manufacturing the batteries economic.
posted by sneebler at 6:02 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
The technology innovation here might be something like planning/building solar electric plants to harvest lithium from seawater and then waiting a few years until there's enough to make manufacturing the batteries economic.
posted by sneebler at 6:02 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
This is generation 1 of distributed power storage and generation on a properly commercial scale. A lot of the benefits won't be there yet, but the key point is that infratructure is being established. Even if these batteries don't last that long, or are not that great, it's a start. You upgrade the components piece by piece and work your way towards distributed power generation, storage and distribution.
Local grids hook into bigger grids, hook into citywide, state wide, countrywide grids. It scales itself. No longer do you have massive centralised generators. It becomes sensible to have micropower generators feeding a common battery type. Power flow gets regulated coming into and out of power wall type installations and a whole ton of transmission and generation noise comes out the system. This is all a bit utopian thinking, but it's not that far fetched. There's nothing all that new here, it's something you could have done before, but with the weight of Tesla behind it (and shiny, iron man looking consumer friendly units, it's going to be a lot neater)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:12 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Local grids hook into bigger grids, hook into citywide, state wide, countrywide grids. It scales itself. No longer do you have massive centralised generators. It becomes sensible to have micropower generators feeding a common battery type. Power flow gets regulated coming into and out of power wall type installations and a whole ton of transmission and generation noise comes out the system. This is all a bit utopian thinking, but it's not that far fetched. There's nothing all that new here, it's something you could have done before, but with the weight of Tesla behind it (and shiny, iron man looking consumer friendly units, it's going to be a lot neater)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:12 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
→ Is that common? Our power company just charges a flat rate per KWH no matter what time of day we use it.
I'd say flat rate is in the minority worldwide. It all depends if where you live has a lot of baseload generation that can't be easily ramped up and down (nuclear, old hydroelectric).
Musk's battery might be a good way to help with the “duck curve”, where utilities are complaining that reduction in demand due to distributed solar means they're going to have to do some jeezly-fast generation ramping (= expensive, usually polluting) to meet demand.
I'm not sure sure about advocating everyone going off-grid, though. Grids do add reliability to power availability for communities. The Tesla vehicles on which Musk built his success would be unusable without grids, and his statement that “There will need to be many Gigafactories in the future” is predicated on there being great transmission resources to these factories × 109. (Not to mention the torrents of water that these facilities will use. Lots of that stuff in NV, eh?)
posted by scruss at 6:17 AM on May 1, 2015
I'd say flat rate is in the minority worldwide. It all depends if where you live has a lot of baseload generation that can't be easily ramped up and down (nuclear, old hydroelectric).
Musk's battery might be a good way to help with the “duck curve”, where utilities are complaining that reduction in demand due to distributed solar means they're going to have to do some jeezly-fast generation ramping (= expensive, usually polluting) to meet demand.
I'm not sure sure about advocating everyone going off-grid, though. Grids do add reliability to power availability for communities. The Tesla vehicles on which Musk built his success would be unusable without grids, and his statement that “There will need to be many Gigafactories in the future” is predicated on there being great transmission resources to these factories × 109. (Not to mention the torrents of water that these facilities will use. Lots of that stuff in NV, eh?)
posted by scruss at 6:17 AM on May 1, 2015
Does anyone know how large the solar array needs to be to charge these? I'm wondering if you could use them to power an Airstream or similar camper.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:17 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:17 AM on May 1, 2015
Does anyone know how large the solar array needs to be to charge these? I'm wondering if you could use them to power an Airstream or similar camper.
That would of course depend on the solar panel. You can do the math yourself, though, at least for an estimate. Take 10,000Wh and divide by the wattage of your solar panel to get the minimum amount of time it could take to charge the Power Wall, in hours, not counting charging inefficiency.
posted by fifthrider at 6:22 AM on May 1, 2015
That would of course depend on the solar panel. You can do the math yourself, though, at least for an estimate. Take 10,000Wh and divide by the wattage of your solar panel to get the minimum amount of time it could take to charge the Power Wall, in hours, not counting charging inefficiency.
posted by fifthrider at 6:22 AM on May 1, 2015
Looking over a few shopping websites, it looks like RV solar panels tend to put out about 100W, give or take. So, you'd need ten or more of those to charge this thing in ten hours of daylight, under ideal conditions. Probably closer to 15-20, given that the sun isn't always perfectly visible, and you're losing energy to heat, transmission, etc. I don't see that as all that practical, unfortunately, at least for the moment.
posted by fifthrider at 6:26 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by fifthrider at 6:26 AM on May 1, 2015
Just watching the key note. He says it's vital that it's wall mounted so you don't need a battery room.
Annoyingly, I have a battery room (well an engine room, with battery banks in it) What I don't have is a flat wall anywhere.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:28 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Annoyingly, I have a battery room (well an engine room, with battery banks in it) What I don't have is a flat wall anywhere.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 6:28 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
No flat walls? You hear that? That was the future passing you by, man.
posted by Naberius at 6:36 AM on May 1, 2015 [11 favorites]
posted by Naberius at 6:36 AM on May 1, 2015 [11 favorites]
Does anyone know how large the solar array needs to be to charge these?
It depends on your siting. Where I am, here in the southwest desert, I can make ~30KWh/day pretty easy from a 2.5kw system. But we get lots of great sunlight 320 days a year. 3 of those battery packs would mean I could be entirely off grid - it would take a month of cloudy weather to run that down at our usual consumption. But too, we have gas appliances and heat, so that helps us a bit. If we went all electric, I'd have to double the size of the panels and the batteries.
For cost comparisons, you can get a 2.5KW solar system for about 10,000 dollars. So, in my case a 20,000 dollar investment would mean nearly complete energy independence for my home.
Before Tesla came along a similar battery system (10KWh) was close to 12k and unwieldy and custom built. Now, it's 3500, small, and very easy to deploy. If this works out, it's absolutely a game changer.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 6:38 AM on May 1, 2015 [12 favorites]
It depends on your siting. Where I am, here in the southwest desert, I can make ~30KWh/day pretty easy from a 2.5kw system. But we get lots of great sunlight 320 days a year. 3 of those battery packs would mean I could be entirely off grid - it would take a month of cloudy weather to run that down at our usual consumption. But too, we have gas appliances and heat, so that helps us a bit. If we went all electric, I'd have to double the size of the panels and the batteries.
For cost comparisons, you can get a 2.5KW solar system for about 10,000 dollars. So, in my case a 20,000 dollar investment would mean nearly complete energy independence for my home.
Before Tesla came along a similar battery system (10KWh) was close to 12k and unwieldy and custom built. Now, it's 3500, small, and very easy to deploy. If this works out, it's absolutely a game changer.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 6:38 AM on May 1, 2015 [12 favorites]
There is some irony here because (Nikola) Tesla was big into moving people away from the DC format to the AC electric power grid and Edison was big business at the time lobbying to keep people away from AC.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:39 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:39 AM on May 1, 2015
Does anyone know how large the solar array needs to be to charge these? I'm wondering if you could use them to power an Airstream or similar camper.
That would really depend on siting and your consumption. You can get panels that make ~300W per sq. yard. So it is conceivable that you could charge one of these in day with the roof on a class B or class A RV. But, that's assuming close to max production - and only necessary if you have close to max consumption. However, 10Kwh is a lot of power. If you were judicious in your usage, a full charge would last several days to a week. In that case, you wouldn't need max production.
TLDR - it's possible, but it depends.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 6:48 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
That would really depend on siting and your consumption. You can get panels that make ~300W per sq. yard. So it is conceivable that you could charge one of these in day with the roof on a class B or class A RV. But, that's assuming close to max production - and only necessary if you have close to max consumption. However, 10Kwh is a lot of power. If you were judicious in your usage, a full charge would last several days to a week. In that case, you wouldn't need max production.
TLDR - it's possible, but it depends.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 6:48 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Edison was big business at the time lobbying to keep people away from AC
Well, they did say he was the man to get us into this century.
And that man was he.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 7:02 AM on May 1, 2015 [7 favorites]
Well, they did say he was the man to get us into this century.
And that man was he.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 7:02 AM on May 1, 2015 [7 favorites]
Weather obviously is a huge factor, too. I have solar, but living in Pittsburgh - one of the U.S.'s cloudiest cities - means that I only generate about 50% of my consumption. Batteries would help, but I'm still not going to hit 100% with my property and weather.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:02 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by Chrysostom at 7:02 AM on May 1, 2015
some billionaire markets a product which makes it easier to take what is a public utility, electricity, and turn it into a private good: what you and your access to capital can produce... and you guys think you are going to be on the side of the billionaires on this.
what a bunch of suckers.
posted by ennui.bz at 7:05 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
what a bunch of suckers.
posted by ennui.bz at 7:05 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Chrysostom, How much space do your panels take up to give you 50% capacity? We have almost 2000 square feet that we could put panels on and I was wondering how much area it would take to reach 100% in Pittsburgh.
posted by octothorpe at 7:10 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by octothorpe at 7:10 AM on May 1, 2015
ennui - curious where you live that has an electric utility that is on the side of the people?
posted by kokaku at 7:10 AM on May 1, 2015 [9 favorites]
posted by kokaku at 7:10 AM on May 1, 2015 [9 favorites]
Electricity is (stupidly) privately run in the UK.
Government subsidised solar (which was a thing in the UK but I think is no more) is getting quite close to means of production in the hands of the people when it comes to electricity.
He's already privatised space travel and world peace (wait, no that was Tony Stark, never mind), might as well be this next right?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:14 AM on May 1, 2015
Government subsidised solar (which was a thing in the UK but I think is no more) is getting quite close to means of production in the hands of the people when it comes to electricity.
He's already privatised space travel and world peace (wait, no that was Tony Stark, never mind), might as well be this next right?
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 7:14 AM on May 1, 2015
My electric company is certainly a utility but definitely not public. Ours is owned by a giant Australian banking company.
posted by octothorpe at 7:15 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by octothorpe at 7:15 AM on May 1, 2015
It's worth noting that electrical cooperatives do exist, but I still don't see your point, ennui - electricity has historically been a public utility because people don't have the resources to produce it on their own, not because it's a public good like common grazing lands or the like. If anything, making private solar production practical makes electricity more of a public good, since it lets everybody with the right equipment freely gather what they need from the sun.
posted by fifthrider at 7:15 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by fifthrider at 7:15 AM on May 1, 2015
These batteries store at 350-450 Volts DC. You will need a specialized charger/inverter in addition to the batteries. My wild-ass guess is that's another $1500.
posted by DesbaratsDays at 7:16 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by DesbaratsDays at 7:16 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Someone give the man a volcanic lair already. Heck, I'd even help build it.
Wait, did I just become a minion?
posted by Theta States at 7:32 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
Wait, did I just become a minion?
posted by Theta States at 7:32 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
Octothorpe - I've got 741 sq ft of panels, generating 7.95 kW. I also have some shade problems from a neighbor, so I don't get full generation in the summer. If you've got 2000 sq ft, you might be in good shape.
I'll email you some other info.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:43 AM on May 1, 2015
I'll email you some other info.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:43 AM on May 1, 2015
Cool. We've got no shade problems but we need to figure out if we could install them on the garage roof without them being visible from the street. We live in a historic district and we'd never get approval if the panels were visible from anywhere but directly overhead.
posted by octothorpe at 7:59 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by octothorpe at 7:59 AM on May 1, 2015
I don't quite understand how this is such a gamechanger. Lead-acid or AGM battery banks are priced at about half the cost per kWh right now - and they aren't a very good investment unless you really need them. This is fancier, but it is hard to see how it justifies the extra cost.
On top of that, unless you already have one, you'll need an inverter that costs more than $1000. You'll also be limited by the max output of the battery which is not that high and by the total capacity.
Right now, grid-tie solar makes sense in some places without subsidy. Off-grid solar with battery backup is definitely still much more expensive than the grid, unless you live somewhere with ridiculously expensive power. How does a more expensive battery change those economics?
The big advantage of Li-ion batteries is higher energy density (both in mass and volume). Those aren't nearly as important for fixed applications. Why Li-ion for the home?
The main link is pretty weird. You can't really talk about the LCOE of energy that comes out of a battery without talking about the cost of energy going in. The author seems to assume that energy would be free, which certainly isn't true.
posted by ssg at 8:13 AM on May 1, 2015 [4 favorites]
On top of that, unless you already have one, you'll need an inverter that costs more than $1000. You'll also be limited by the max output of the battery which is not that high and by the total capacity.
Right now, grid-tie solar makes sense in some places without subsidy. Off-grid solar with battery backup is definitely still much more expensive than the grid, unless you live somewhere with ridiculously expensive power. How does a more expensive battery change those economics?
The big advantage of Li-ion batteries is higher energy density (both in mass and volume). Those aren't nearly as important for fixed applications. Why Li-ion for the home?
The main link is pretty weird. You can't really talk about the LCOE of energy that comes out of a battery without talking about the cost of energy going in. The author seems to assume that energy would be free, which certainly isn't true.
posted by ssg at 8:13 AM on May 1, 2015 [4 favorites]
Anybody interested in flow batteries and advanced compressed air should also be keeping an eye on Isentropic.
posted by flabdablet at 8:31 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by flabdablet at 8:31 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
The end result of this will be the end to end "smart grid". It has to be, the utilities wont be caught with their pants down paying people any significant amount of money here. This is the wild west, when this is an established thing the gains and losses will be measured in cents or even smaller fractions.
And this is where the huge valuations for companies like Nest and other IP-connected home control devices really start to make sense. It's less about "turn on your heating from your mobile" and more about "let your power company manage consumption across the entire grid".
posted by bonaldi at 8:40 AM on May 1, 2015
And this is where the huge valuations for companies like Nest and other IP-connected home control devices really start to make sense. It's less about "turn on your heating from your mobile" and more about "let your power company manage consumption across the entire grid".
posted by bonaldi at 8:40 AM on May 1, 2015
I have a friend who worked at lightsail for years and the air storage technology has been a real bear to get to work. When you compress air you run into rats nest of energy loss issues. Dealing with these has been very hard. Long term reliability has also been a bear due to lubrication corrosion issues.
The entrance of LEDs has really changed the game since I studied this in college in the 80's.
Lighting has always been the biggest drain on a solar system.
posted by boilermonster at 8:55 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
The entrance of LEDs has really changed the game since I studied this in college in the 80's.
Lighting has always been the biggest drain on a solar system.
posted by boilermonster at 8:55 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Lead-acid or AGM battery banks are priced at about half the cost per kWh right now
Where have you found lead-acid battery banks at $180/kWh assembled?
posted by flabdablet at 9:03 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Where have you found lead-acid battery banks at $180/kWh assembled?
posted by flabdablet at 9:03 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
some billionaire markets a product which makes it easier to take what is a public utility, electricity, and turn it into a private good: what you and your access to capital can produce... and you guys think you are going to be on the side of the billionaires on this.
what a bunch of suckers.
posted by ennui.bz at 10:05 AM on May 1 [+] [!]
electricity is a public good? Like schools and roads? Enjoy your tiring cynicism.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:21 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
what a bunch of suckers.
posted by ennui.bz at 10:05 AM on May 1 [+] [!]
electricity is a public good? Like schools and roads? Enjoy your tiring cynicism.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:21 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
I've been on the fence about installing solar panels. My sis-in-law and my brother-in-law both installed it (peer pressure!) but I know we're still in the rapid improvement of technology phase, where being a later adopter has enormous benefits if you can afford to wait. But the substantial (US Federal) tax incentives expire in 2016 and probably will not be renewed. On the third hand, we have so few sunny days here in upstate NY...
So the PowerWall is very interesting, and may get me off the fence.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:30 AM on May 1, 2015
So the PowerWall is very interesting, and may get me off the fence.
posted by RedOrGreen at 9:30 AM on May 1, 2015
What landlord in their right mind would ever install solar so that their tenants could save money?
The landlord that wants to attract and keep really good tenants by showcasing how cheap the rent actually is compared to all the slumlords who will ask you to pay to live in a place and pay for the power?
The big advantage of Li-ion batteries is higher energy density (both in mass and volume). Those aren't nearly as important for fixed applications. Why Li-ion for the home?
Answer: The Tiny House/Small Living Movement. With something like this and some solar panels, a composting toilet and a water tank for your sewage/septic cycle, you'd be close to having a house off the grid and with a zero footprint. Practical? No, not really, but in addition to RVers and Tiny House trailer enthusiasts, there are a ton of preppers, survivalists and simple misanthropes* desirous of escaping society that all seem to have alot of money burning a hole in their pockets.
Additionally, because grid-tie is artificially difficult and prone to 'gaming' by certain utilities (short-sighted though that is), the word is getting out that cheap panels and a cheap UL 1741 inverter can make a simple and fairly resilient 'guerrilla grid-tie' system. You don't have to go completely off the grid to lower your bill, and this method would allow for a cobbling together of enough panels over time that it would be a rolling investment. The types of folks who would do something like this will jump at 10kWh storage in the space of their old hot-water-heater tank (cause they switched to an on-demand back in 2009).
I agree that Li-ion is kinda dirty tech, though.
*'Simple Misanthrope' would be an awesome username.
posted by eclectist at 9:30 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
The landlord that wants to attract and keep really good tenants by showcasing how cheap the rent actually is compared to all the slumlords who will ask you to pay to live in a place and pay for the power?
The big advantage of Li-ion batteries is higher energy density (both in mass and volume). Those aren't nearly as important for fixed applications. Why Li-ion for the home?
Answer: The Tiny House/Small Living Movement. With something like this and some solar panels, a composting toilet and a water tank for your sewage/septic cycle, you'd be close to having a house off the grid and with a zero footprint. Practical? No, not really, but in addition to RVers and Tiny House trailer enthusiasts, there are a ton of preppers, survivalists and simple misanthropes* desirous of escaping society that all seem to have alot of money burning a hole in their pockets.
Additionally, because grid-tie is artificially difficult and prone to 'gaming' by certain utilities (short-sighted though that is), the word is getting out that cheap panels and a cheap UL 1741 inverter can make a simple and fairly resilient 'guerrilla grid-tie' system. You don't have to go completely off the grid to lower your bill, and this method would allow for a cobbling together of enough panels over time that it would be a rolling investment. The types of folks who would do something like this will jump at 10kWh storage in the space of their old hot-water-heater tank (cause they switched to an on-demand back in 2009).
I agree that Li-ion is kinda dirty tech, though.
*'Simple Misanthrope' would be an awesome username.
posted by eclectist at 9:30 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
The caveat to this is that only homeowners, and at least somewhat affluent homeowners at that, will have access to this. What landlord in their right mind would ever install solar so that their tenants could save money?
I think landlords could make money from installing solar: install solar on your property, then adjust rent to include utilities. This does not increase cost to the tenant, who would have to pay traditional utilities otherwises, and amortizes the cost of installation for the landlord. After a few years, the solar installation will be paid for and, other than maintenance costs, the "utilities included" portion of the rent is just profit for the landlord.
Of course, renters don't save much money in this scenario, but the energy source on that building is at least cleaner and more sustainable.
posted by LooseFilter at 9:35 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I think landlords could make money from installing solar: install solar on your property, then adjust rent to include utilities. This does not increase cost to the tenant, who would have to pay traditional utilities otherwises, and amortizes the cost of installation for the landlord. After a few years, the solar installation will be paid for and, other than maintenance costs, the "utilities included" portion of the rent is just profit for the landlord.
Of course, renters don't save much money in this scenario, but the energy source on that building is at least cleaner and more sustainable.
posted by LooseFilter at 9:35 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
(also what eclectist also just said.)
posted by LooseFilter at 9:35 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by LooseFilter at 9:35 AM on May 1, 2015
What landlord in their right mind would ever install solar so that their tenants could save money?
The landlord that wants to attract and keep really good tenants by showcasing how cheap the rent actually is compared to all the slumlords who will ask you to pay to live in a place and pay for the power?
To say nothing of boutique markets like (sadly) here in Seattle. People would be climbing over each other to be smug about that.
posted by lumpenprole at 9:54 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
The landlord that wants to attract and keep really good tenants by showcasing how cheap the rent actually is compared to all the slumlords who will ask you to pay to live in a place and pay for the power?
To say nothing of boutique markets like (sadly) here in Seattle. People would be climbing over each other to be smug about that.
posted by lumpenprole at 9:54 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I wonder how long until electricity utilities have dynamic spot pricing of electricity, in the way that air fares and surplus AWS instances are priced.
When that happens, the logical thing to do would be to attach a computer to the battery, connected to various information sources including precise sunshine/wind forecasts (where relevant) and electricity prices, and programmed to buy electricity when the price is right (i.e., if it's cheap, top up the battery leaving just enough room for whatever the weather is expected to provide for free; if it's expensive and expected to be cheaper, let it run down a bit and wait). Perhaps feed the computer with other inputs (internal temperature in the house, number of occupants expected to be around) which affects electricity consumption and use a learning algorithm to optimise the charging strategy.
posted by acb at 9:59 AM on May 1, 2015
When that happens, the logical thing to do would be to attach a computer to the battery, connected to various information sources including precise sunshine/wind forecasts (where relevant) and electricity prices, and programmed to buy electricity when the price is right (i.e., if it's cheap, top up the battery leaving just enough room for whatever the weather is expected to provide for free; if it's expensive and expected to be cheaper, let it run down a bit and wait). Perhaps feed the computer with other inputs (internal temperature in the house, number of occupants expected to be around) which affects electricity consumption and use a learning algorithm to optimise the charging strategy.
posted by acb at 9:59 AM on May 1, 2015
The upside of having enough of these to make the system work that way though is that it wont matter at all how the power is generated. It could be people riding exercise bikes
I think I just saw the future of prison labor, minimum wage employment, punishment in general -- great lines of exercise bikes in constant use.
posted by philip-random at 10:00 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I think I just saw the future of prison labor, minimum wage employment, punishment in general -- great lines of exercise bikes in constant use.
posted by philip-random at 10:00 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
electricity is a public good? Like schools and roads? Enjoy your tiring cynicism.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:21 AM on May 1 [+] [!]
I liked ennui.bz' comment in this thread for being a lone, critical framing of a highly anticipated announcement for which there is little to compare other than Kamen's Segway. I don't agree it's cynicism and its relevancy shouldn't be overlooked for a jibing tone reminiscent of PT Barnum.
I'm always timid about using this term: commoditization (because of the -zation, reminds me of first learning the word martinizing/martinization as a kid and thinking, "fake"), but isn't that what this proposal is? And because the ostensible goal is to be fossil-free, isn't this announcement getting a pass as for the greater good when it's another example of commodifying?
Maybe all that's a good thing, but the comment gave me pause, and is one reason I read Metafilter.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 10:04 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:21 AM on May 1 [+] [!]
I liked ennui.bz' comment in this thread for being a lone, critical framing of a highly anticipated announcement for which there is little to compare other than Kamen's Segway. I don't agree it's cynicism and its relevancy shouldn't be overlooked for a jibing tone reminiscent of PT Barnum.
I'm always timid about using this term: commoditization (because of the -zation, reminds me of first learning the word martinizing/martinization as a kid and thinking, "fake"), but isn't that what this proposal is? And because the ostensible goal is to be fossil-free, isn't this announcement getting a pass as for the greater good when it's another example of commodifying?
Maybe all that's a good thing, but the comment gave me pause, and is one reason I read Metafilter.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 10:04 AM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
I think I just saw the future of prison labor, minimum wage employment, punishment in general -- great lines of exercise bikes in constant use.
To be fair, Charlie Brooker got there first.
Also, making Soylent/Nutriloaf and feeding it to a prisoner pedalling a dynamo is a horribly inefficient way of converting energy to electricity.
posted by acb at 10:04 AM on May 1, 2015 [4 favorites]
To be fair, Charlie Brooker got there first.
Also, making Soylent/Nutriloaf and feeding it to a prisoner pedalling a dynamo is a horribly inefficient way of converting energy to electricity.
posted by acb at 10:04 AM on May 1, 2015 [4 favorites]
Assuming we survive climate change, the future of energy consumption will be figuring out how to deal with waste heat.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:08 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:08 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Also, making Soylent/Nutriloaf and feeding it to a prisoner pedalling a dynamo is a horribly inefficient way of converting energy to electricity.
Yeah, but if you're going to pay to keep the damn thing alive and punished in prison anyway, might as well get some useful work out of it while it's housed there.
posted by theorique at 10:09 AM on May 1, 2015
Yeah, but if you're going to pay to keep the damn thing alive and punished in prison anyway, might as well get some useful work out of it while it's housed there.
posted by theorique at 10:09 AM on May 1, 2015
Where have you found lead-acid battery banks at $180/kWh assembled?
Here. AGM even. Obviously not assembled, because that would be impractical to ship, but assembling a battery bank is very little work - just attaching some cables.
posted by ssg at 10:11 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Here. AGM even. Obviously not assembled, because that would be impractical to ship, but assembling a battery bank is very little work - just attaching some cables.
posted by ssg at 10:11 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
And because the ostensible goal is to be fossil-free, isn't this announcement getting a pass as for the greater good when it's another example of commodifying?
That's the thing, though: electricity is already a commodity. It doesn't just fall from the sky for free.
Yet.
The more relevant concern here is not some vague politicking about the economics of demand, but rather the potential unexamined consequences of producing vast quantities of lithium-ion batteries: depletion of resources, environmental degradation, diverting attention from more sustainable storage technologies, etc.
posted by fifthrider at 10:25 AM on May 1, 2015
That's the thing, though: electricity is already a commodity. It doesn't just fall from the sky for free.
Yet.
The more relevant concern here is not some vague politicking about the economics of demand, but rather the potential unexamined consequences of producing vast quantities of lithium-ion batteries: depletion of resources, environmental degradation, diverting attention from more sustainable storage technologies, etc.
posted by fifthrider at 10:25 AM on May 1, 2015
No flat walls? You hear that?
How many submarines have flat walls these days? But I think this is the real issue.
posted by sneebler at 10:56 AM on May 1, 2015
How many submarines have flat walls these days? But I think this is the real issue.
posted by sneebler at 10:56 AM on May 1, 2015
That's the thing, though: electricity is already a commodity. It doesn't just fall from the sky for free.
Yeah, it's even traded, and that trade was manipulated by Enron to further bolster the distinction, but ennui.bz' observation was that the distribution of electricity is a public utility-- its distribution/cost/price was brought about through socialism; TVA, and all that. Nowadays the enterprise of those dams is seriously questioned, though Brazil considers doing the same thing...
I think casting to the future, asserting electricity will be free when the costs of the technological interface between the Earth's surface and the sun will be negligible, is an overly accepting assessment of this proposal. Ecological externalities of lithium batteries (and other rare-earth elements being explored) is certainly relevant and was the first response to the thread.
But it wasn't a framing. It essentially accepted the proposal and called for regulation.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 10:56 AM on May 1, 2015
Yeah, it's even traded, and that trade was manipulated by Enron to further bolster the distinction, but ennui.bz' observation was that the distribution of electricity is a public utility-- its distribution/cost/price was brought about through socialism; TVA, and all that. Nowadays the enterprise of those dams is seriously questioned, though Brazil considers doing the same thing...
I think casting to the future, asserting electricity will be free when the costs of the technological interface between the Earth's surface and the sun will be negligible, is an overly accepting assessment of this proposal. Ecological externalities of lithium batteries (and other rare-earth elements being explored) is certainly relevant and was the first response to the thread.
But it wasn't a framing. It essentially accepted the proposal and called for regulation.
posted by lazycomputerkids at 10:56 AM on May 1, 2015
People have been talking about this since the late 70's, when Amory Lovins and others started promoting the idea that investments in what was then very expensive and untried solar would be a boon to society, or at least the denizens of Sausalito. A major obstacle at that time was seen to be the desire of rentier utilities to own both the means of generation and the distribution grid. Has any evidence surfaced since then to indicate that this isn't still the biggest obstacle to distributed PV?
posted by sneebler at 11:07 AM on May 1, 2015
posted by sneebler at 11:07 AM on May 1, 2015
Wait, did I just become a minion?
Nope, a henchman.
posted by Aizkolari at 11:14 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Nope, a henchman.
posted by Aizkolari at 11:14 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I think the question was something around the environmental aspect and he said that until any ecological concerns in the manufacturing are addressed he can't consider it wholly environmentally sound.
Sounder policy than I would have expected from a man who's trying to evacuate the planet. Good on him.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:15 AM on May 1, 2015
Sounder policy than I would have expected from a man who's trying to evacuate the planet. Good on him.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 11:15 AM on May 1, 2015
A major obstacle at that time was seen to be the desire of rentier utilities to own both the means of generation and the distribution grid. Has any evidence surfaced since then to indicate that this isn't still the biggest obstacle to distributed PV?
I think there are legitimate technical and regulatory challenges around baseload power and such. There are real hurdles from moving from centralized to distributed power generation.
That said, I think there are utilities that are relatively supportive, having realized that's where we will end up, and there are utilities that are putting forth all efforts to block this change.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:22 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I think there are legitimate technical and regulatory challenges around baseload power and such. There are real hurdles from moving from centralized to distributed power generation.
That said, I think there are utilities that are relatively supportive, having realized that's where we will end up, and there are utilities that are putting forth all efforts to block this change.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:22 AM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
"It's something we must do, and we can do, and we will do."
Elon Musk Science...
We do what we must because we can.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:27 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Elon Musk Science...
We do what we must because we can.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:27 AM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
I'm not sure this PowerWall is about distributed power generation in the sense that individual household would be generating power to feed into the general grid. What Musk laid out seems to be more "get off the grid, become stand-alone".
Which may not be as simple as that statement is to say at first, but with this as a first-gen product and further development might become entirely possible.
posted by hippybear at 11:33 AM on May 1, 2015
Which may not be as simple as that statement is to say at first, but with this as a first-gen product and further development might become entirely possible.
posted by hippybear at 11:33 AM on May 1, 2015
I'm not sure this PowerWall is about distributed power generation in the sense that individual household would be generating power to feed into the general grid. What Musk laid out seems to be more "get off the grid, become stand-alone".
What I got from the presentation is that batteries are going to allow for a variety of changes to power generation and consumption. Off the grid for those that want to ditch existing utilities or who are in an area with no grid, reliability improvements for consumers in areas where utility power is inconsistent, and grid consumption smoothing. All of these have their place and all rely on batteries.
An off-grid household doesn't make sense for many folks in cities, for instance: the house I'm in now has bad exposure for it. A smart, distributed grid makes a lot of sense in this case — those that have exposure can share it and I can charge my battery during the day.
tl;dr I don't think "off grid" is the solution for the future, but one of many solutions.
posted by wemayfreeze at 1:05 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
What I got from the presentation is that batteries are going to allow for a variety of changes to power generation and consumption. Off the grid for those that want to ditch existing utilities or who are in an area with no grid, reliability improvements for consumers in areas where utility power is inconsistent, and grid consumption smoothing. All of these have their place and all rely on batteries.
An off-grid household doesn't make sense for many folks in cities, for instance: the house I'm in now has bad exposure for it. A smart, distributed grid makes a lot of sense in this case — those that have exposure can share it and I can charge my battery during the day.
tl;dr I don't think "off grid" is the solution for the future, but one of many solutions.
posted by wemayfreeze at 1:05 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
Can someone who understands electricity help me with this?
The Powerwall delivers between 5 and 8.5 amps of current. How does this relate to normal home electricity usage? I'm familiar with circuits rated for 15 - 20 amps, and I've certainly tripped some of those in my lifetime.
So is this thing not capable of powering my home as I've become accustomed to? Or is there some piece of the puzzle that I'm missing here?
posted by wemayfreeze at 1:10 PM on May 1, 2015
The Powerwall delivers between 5 and 8.5 amps of current. How does this relate to normal home electricity usage? I'm familiar with circuits rated for 15 - 20 amps, and I've certainly tripped some of those in my lifetime.
So is this thing not capable of powering my home as I've become accustomed to? Or is there some piece of the puzzle that I'm missing here?
posted by wemayfreeze at 1:10 PM on May 1, 2015
I think there are utilities that are relatively supportive, having realized that's where we will end up, and there are utilities that are putting forth all efforts to block this change.
here's a nice slashdot comment comparing arizona and hawaii on some of the issues 'public' (regulated) utilities are facing:
-Charting Hawaii's Spectacular Solar Growth
-Can Microinverters Stabilize Hawaii's Shaky Grid?
-SolarCity and NextEra Will Triple Hawaii's Solar Power
-Hawaii May Be Closer to Achieving a 100% Renewable Grid Than You Think
more from GTM...
-The Solar-Utility Battle Is Getting Ugly
-SolarCity, Nest to Energy Regulators: Open the Grid
-How California Can Dramatically Streamline Interconnection of Distributed Energy
-PV, Batteries and the Smart Home: Is the Solar Industry Getting Ahead of Itself?
-Grid Edge 20: The Top Companies Disrupting the US Electric Market
-5 Numbers That Will Shape the Future of US Solar in 2015 and 2016
-3 Charts That Explain Why Tesla Is Developing a Battery for Homes
posted by kliuless at 1:32 PM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
here's a nice slashdot comment comparing arizona and hawaii on some of the issues 'public' (regulated) utilities are facing:
The Arizona utility wanted a connection charge / kWh installed PV, to the point that the homeowners who installed the PV ended up paying the same, without or without the PV. In short, they wanted to eliminate any incentive to add PV and connect to the grid. They did get approval for a connection charge / kWh installed, but it was a fraction of what they wanted...oh and on hawaii...
I used to think this was all about the power/utility companies trying to defend their bottom line. That's still part of it, but I've come to realize there are technical reasons, too... So there's technical reasons AND financial reasons for the utilities to grip.
Put a battery pack on your home, like one of these. Get an inverter which feeds excess to the battery and NEVER exports to the grid. The power company loses their only technical reason to gripe, because you are no longer doing Net Metering. At that point, it's all about the Benjamins.
Indeed, if you get to the point where your home is truly Net Zero, long-term, you can go completely off-grid. At which point they no longer have a say in the matter.
-Charting Hawaii's Spectacular Solar Growth
-Can Microinverters Stabilize Hawaii's Shaky Grid?
-SolarCity and NextEra Will Triple Hawaii's Solar Power
-Hawaii May Be Closer to Achieving a 100% Renewable Grid Than You Think
more from GTM...
-The Solar-Utility Battle Is Getting Ugly
-SolarCity, Nest to Energy Regulators: Open the Grid
-How California Can Dramatically Streamline Interconnection of Distributed Energy
-PV, Batteries and the Smart Home: Is the Solar Industry Getting Ahead of Itself?
-Grid Edge 20: The Top Companies Disrupting the US Electric Market
-5 Numbers That Will Shape the Future of US Solar in 2015 and 2016
-3 Charts That Explain Why Tesla Is Developing a Battery for Homes
posted by kliuless at 1:32 PM on May 1, 2015 [3 favorites]
So is this thing not capable of powering my home as I've become accustomed to?
It is not. At least, just one of them isn't.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 1:34 PM on May 1, 2015
It is not. At least, just one of them isn't.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 1:34 PM on May 1, 2015
wemayfreeze: Can someone who understands electricity help me with this? The Powerwall delivers between 5 and 8.5 amps of current. How does this relate to normal home electricity usage? I'm familiar with circuits rated for 15 - 20 amps, and I've certainly tripped some of those in my lifetime. So is this thing not capable of powering my home as I've become accustomed to? Or is there some piece of the puzzle that I'm missing here?
You're missing that the battery runs at significantly higher voltage then your home, so when the voltage is stepped down from 400 VDC to 110 VAC, each battery is capable of supplying about 18A, or about a standard circuit and a half (15A circuits should not carry more than 12A), for five hours. I'd need 6 of these to match the maximum power rating of my breaker panel (100W, ~11 kW), but most of the time my house uses far less. Tesla has a good summary of appliance power consumption here: http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall
(The key is the battery can deliver at most 2kW continuously up to 10 kWh. Watts = Volts * Amps).
posted by Popular Ethics at 2:23 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
You're missing that the battery runs at significantly higher voltage then your home, so when the voltage is stepped down from 400 VDC to 110 VAC, each battery is capable of supplying about 18A, or about a standard circuit and a half (15A circuits should not carry more than 12A), for five hours. I'd need 6 of these to match the maximum power rating of my breaker panel (100W, ~11 kW), but most of the time my house uses far less. Tesla has a good summary of appliance power consumption here: http://www.teslamotors.com/powerwall
(The key is the battery can deliver at most 2kW continuously up to 10 kWh. Watts = Volts * Amps).
posted by Popular Ethics at 2:23 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
My panel is rated for 100A, not 100W. Just missed the edit window.
posted by Popular Ethics at 2:29 PM on May 1, 2015
posted by Popular Ethics at 2:29 PM on May 1, 2015
Aha! Thanks, Popular Ethics!
posted by wemayfreeze at 2:39 PM on May 1, 2015
posted by wemayfreeze at 2:39 PM on May 1, 2015
As much as I am very pro-solar/electric there's going to be a painful backlash at some point when early adopters discover that battery life is not forever, actually in the 5-7 year range for very well maintained cells. Replacing a $10,000 battery pack every 10 years may skew the equation just a bit.
posted by sammyo at 2:44 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by sammyo at 2:44 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
The battery pack is $3500 today. It will be far less in 10 years.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:54 PM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 2:54 PM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
The upside of having enough of these to make the system work that way though is that it wont matter at all how the power is generated. It could be people riding exercise bikes
I think I just saw the future of prison labor, minimum wage employment, punishment in general -- great lines of exercise bikes in constant use.
Black Mirror's Fifteen Million Credits just started to make a lot more sense.
posted by 27kjmm at 3:03 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I think I just saw the future of prison labor, minimum wage employment, punishment in general -- great lines of exercise bikes in constant use.
Black Mirror's Fifteen Million Credits just started to make a lot more sense.
posted by 27kjmm at 3:03 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
I think the question was something around the environmental aspect and he said that until any ecological concerns in the manufacturing are addressed he can't consider it wholly environmentally sound.
Sounder policy than I would have expected from a man who's trying to evacuate the planet. Good on him.
If he's biding his time while beta testing his perfect Martian solution, I will be more than happy to live with these changes.
posted by 27kjmm at 3:11 PM on May 1, 2015
Sounder policy than I would have expected from a man who's trying to evacuate the planet. Good on him.
If he's biding his time while beta testing his perfect Martian solution, I will be more than happy to live with these changes.
posted by 27kjmm at 3:11 PM on May 1, 2015
...battery life is not forever, actually in the 5-7 year range for very well maintained cells.
this seems misleading to me. i've owned a tesla since 2009 and the battery is still at 98% of its original capacity. this is with after 33K miles of daily commuter driving. so i'm pretty sure this technology has a longer life span than seven years. i also owned a nissan leaf, and its battery was at 95% after four years of daily use.
i agree that battery degradation is a real issue that many folks will ignore. that said, i don't believe that 5-7 years is an accurate estimate of the lifespan of these systems.
posted by bruceo at 3:35 PM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
this seems misleading to me. i've owned a tesla since 2009 and the battery is still at 98% of its original capacity. this is with after 33K miles of daily commuter driving. so i'm pretty sure this technology has a longer life span than seven years. i also owned a nissan leaf, and its battery was at 95% after four years of daily use.
i agree that battery degradation is a real issue that many folks will ignore. that said, i don't believe that 5-7 years is an accurate estimate of the lifespan of these systems.
posted by bruceo at 3:35 PM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
They are warrantied for 10 years. Tesla thinks they good for more than 5-7 years.
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 3:46 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Pogo_Fuzzybutt at 3:46 PM on May 1, 2015 [1 favorite]
The cynic in me thinks that Tesla massively overbuilt their factory, and need a way to dump some of the excess capacity, because they aren't selling enough cars yet.
I've heard interesting things about more stable Lithium battery chemistries in the pipeline, but I'm not sure if Tesla will have the capacity to produce those. In the meantime, there's no way in hell that you can convince me to stuff my house full of Lithium-Ion batteries.
Mounting the battery outdoors also probably isn't an option if you live outside of California. The batteries are basically only useful between 0-100F (and temperatures at both extremes exacerbate the conditions that cause Lithium Ion cells to burst into flames). Granted, there are very few places that are *constantly* outside of 0-100F, but you probably don't want to lose power in extreme weather conditions. In fact, that's probably when you least want your power source to fail....
I'm not personally convinced that massively-decentralized power generation and storage will be scalable, sustainable, or economical. Why does it make more sense to stuff a Lithium Battery into everybody's garage/basement instead of installing a molten salt plant (or geothermal heating/cogeneration plant) in every city/neighborhood? Why is it more efficient to put solar panels on urban rooftops than it is to put them in big open fields outside of the city?
It's not exactly as though it's difficult to build centralized utilities based on sustainable power. The cold, rainy, industrialized, and comparatively-small country of Germany produces 30% of their power from sustainable sources (and manage to peak at 74% on particularly good days).
I believe that they've managed to do this without a significant investment in energy storage technologies. Those will become more important as they start pushing toward their ambitious goal of 80%, but neither Germany nor the US are even remotely near that point. Reducing daytime peak loads will be a big win, and is an easy starting point.
posted by schmod at 3:53 PM on May 1, 2015
I've heard interesting things about more stable Lithium battery chemistries in the pipeline, but I'm not sure if Tesla will have the capacity to produce those. In the meantime, there's no way in hell that you can convince me to stuff my house full of Lithium-Ion batteries.
Mounting the battery outdoors also probably isn't an option if you live outside of California. The batteries are basically only useful between 0-100F (and temperatures at both extremes exacerbate the conditions that cause Lithium Ion cells to burst into flames). Granted, there are very few places that are *constantly* outside of 0-100F, but you probably don't want to lose power in extreme weather conditions. In fact, that's probably when you least want your power source to fail....
I'm not personally convinced that massively-decentralized power generation and storage will be scalable, sustainable, or economical. Why does it make more sense to stuff a Lithium Battery into everybody's garage/basement instead of installing a molten salt plant (or geothermal heating/cogeneration plant) in every city/neighborhood? Why is it more efficient to put solar panels on urban rooftops than it is to put them in big open fields outside of the city?
It's not exactly as though it's difficult to build centralized utilities based on sustainable power. The cold, rainy, industrialized, and comparatively-small country of Germany produces 30% of their power from sustainable sources (and manage to peak at 74% on particularly good days).
I believe that they've managed to do this without a significant investment in energy storage technologies. Those will become more important as they start pushing toward their ambitious goal of 80%, but neither Germany nor the US are even remotely near that point. Reducing daytime peak loads will be a big win, and is an easy starting point.
posted by schmod at 3:53 PM on May 1, 2015
The cynic in me thinks that Tesla massively overbuilt their factory, and need a way to dump some of the excess capacity, because they aren't selling enough cars yet.
Or they deliberately overbuilt their factory to pump-prime the consumer market with high-capacity domestic batteries, stimulating the development of a more flexible electricity infrastructure, which they calculate will encourage the uptake of electric cars.
Mounting the battery outdoors also probably isn't an option if you live outside of California. The batteries are basically only useful between 0-100F (and temperatures at both extremes exacerbate the conditions that cause Lithium Ion cells to burst into flames).
Don't those things have some sort of automatic temperature control mechanism (i.e., presumably heating/cooling) to keep it within its safe operating parameters?
Why is it more efficient to put solar panels on urban rooftops than it is to put them in big open fields outside of the city?
One reason could be eggs/baskets; if the one particular area where the big solar plant is is overcast on a particular day, electricity output suffers. If there are small solar cells spread out entire urbanised area, the peaks and troughs are averaged out. Which goes some way to address a recurring criticism of renewable energy (namely that solar/wind is far too fickle to produce reliable baseload in the way coal/gas/nuclear/hydroelectric can).
posted by acb at 4:19 PM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
Or they deliberately overbuilt their factory to pump-prime the consumer market with high-capacity domestic batteries, stimulating the development of a more flexible electricity infrastructure, which they calculate will encourage the uptake of electric cars.
Mounting the battery outdoors also probably isn't an option if you live outside of California. The batteries are basically only useful between 0-100F (and temperatures at both extremes exacerbate the conditions that cause Lithium Ion cells to burst into flames).
Don't those things have some sort of automatic temperature control mechanism (i.e., presumably heating/cooling) to keep it within its safe operating parameters?
Why is it more efficient to put solar panels on urban rooftops than it is to put them in big open fields outside of the city?
One reason could be eggs/baskets; if the one particular area where the big solar plant is is overcast on a particular day, electricity output suffers. If there are small solar cells spread out entire urbanised area, the peaks and troughs are averaged out. Which goes some way to address a recurring criticism of renewable energy (namely that solar/wind is far too fickle to produce reliable baseload in the way coal/gas/nuclear/hydroelectric can).
posted by acb at 4:19 PM on May 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
The big advantage of Li-ion batteries is higher energy density (both in mass and volume). Those aren't nearly as important for fixed applications. Why Li-ion for the home?
1. Depth of discharge - you only buy the batteries for power you need, you don't need to get three times as much so you never go below 50% and basically ruin your expensive battery.
2. Maintenance. No topping up with fluid or other monitoring acquired. Set and forget.
3. Size. For high power consumption you really do need a lot of space if you lead-acid.
The most interesting thing about this for me is the price. $3k for 10kwh is waaaaaay cheaper than all comparable competitors in the market currently. This would reduce the cost of an excellent off grid system here in Australia from 40k to the 20-30k range. (10k for panels and inverter, and that's like, nice LG panels or something and a good quality inverter not some shit).
Regarding battery life, 5-7 years is horseshit, frankly.' You'd be looking more like 15-20 years before it got so bad it needed thinking about. This is very exciting stuff, and will make a huge difference to emissions in the next 20 years.
posted by smoke at 12:52 AM on May 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
1. Depth of discharge - you only buy the batteries for power you need, you don't need to get three times as much so you never go below 50% and basically ruin your expensive battery.
2. Maintenance. No topping up with fluid or other monitoring acquired. Set and forget.
3. Size. For high power consumption you really do need a lot of space if you lead-acid.
The most interesting thing about this for me is the price. $3k for 10kwh is waaaaaay cheaper than all comparable competitors in the market currently. This would reduce the cost of an excellent off grid system here in Australia from 40k to the 20-30k range. (10k for panels and inverter, and that's like, nice LG panels or something and a good quality inverter not some shit).
Regarding battery life, 5-7 years is horseshit, frankly.' You'd be looking more like 15-20 years before it got so bad it needed thinking about. This is very exciting stuff, and will make a huge difference to emissions in the next 20 years.
posted by smoke at 12:52 AM on May 2, 2015 [1 favorite]
Regarding battery life, 5-7 years is horseshit, frankly.' You'd be looking more like 15-20 years before it got so bad it needed thinking about.
And by then, you'd probably have bought a second battery, and would have the luxury of the first battery's deterioration being a matter of gradually going down to having only one battery's worth of capacity.
posted by acb at 6:19 AM on May 2, 2015
And by then, you'd probably have bought a second battery, and would have the luxury of the first battery's deterioration being a matter of gradually going down to having only one battery's worth of capacity.
posted by acb at 6:19 AM on May 2, 2015
oh hey, fwiw, here's a better full video, which includes where he starts talking about the 'open source' gigafactory at the 15m mark (like samsung copying intel's fab processes?)
posted by kliuless at 7:35 AM on May 2, 2015
posted by kliuless at 7:35 AM on May 2, 2015
Why is it more efficient to put solar panels on urban rooftops than it is to put them in big open fields outside of the city?
Its not. Large-scale deployment is cheaper than small-scale. The figures in the UK suggested large-scale were about a third less expensive in terms of production costs than small-scale in 2010. This may have changed somewhat since, but large-scale will still be cheaper. There are some advantages for small-scale:
1: Roofs already exist so you don't have to buy or rent land to develop on them. Panels can also be added to without changing what they look like (improving the chances for planning permission and recuing the chances of negative social perceptions) or changing their function (ie roofs are still roofs, agricultural land effectively stops being agricultural land for the period of operation of the installation). The UK's largest solar farm is about 150-200 acres and I suspect we will start to see some more pushback against developments at this scale shortly.
2: Roof top installation will mean much of the generated power is used in situ, reducing distribution/transmission losses and possibly reducing the need for reinforcement of the local network, which reduces costs.
3: Its been suggested that self-generating domestic consumers have improved awareness of their own energy use, which might have some benefits in terms of coming to terms with, and adopting, other new energy technologies.
4: There'll be some other reason that I can't remember off the top of my head.
Germany produces 30% of their power from sustainable sources (and manage to peak at 74% on particularly good days)... I believe that they've managed to do this without a significant investment in energy storage technologies.
Germany does have about 6GW of pumped storage capacity but this is only one factor in network management currently. The problems with variable RE have mostly been dealt with as Germany's high voltage grid is well connected with all of its neighbours. Some of them are capable of helping with shortfalls in supply or can respond to sudden peaks in demand quickly, or can help to take high wind output at periods of low internal demand. I've not up to speed on how quickly Germany will need to take further action, its not really a straightforward question, the old approaches will keep things working, but eventually there will be additional costs sufficient to drive some new approaches - smarter grids, active network management, more demand side management, storage, etc. Its not really possible to say what these new approaches will be as yet. Storage is generally seen as something that will help but we're not really sure at what scale, where on networks and when it will be needed, nor how much the tech will improve by the time it is needed.
posted by biffa at 6:40 AM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]
Its not. Large-scale deployment is cheaper than small-scale. The figures in the UK suggested large-scale were about a third less expensive in terms of production costs than small-scale in 2010. This may have changed somewhat since, but large-scale will still be cheaper. There are some advantages for small-scale:
1: Roofs already exist so you don't have to buy or rent land to develop on them. Panels can also be added to without changing what they look like (improving the chances for planning permission and recuing the chances of negative social perceptions) or changing their function (ie roofs are still roofs, agricultural land effectively stops being agricultural land for the period of operation of the installation). The UK's largest solar farm is about 150-200 acres and I suspect we will start to see some more pushback against developments at this scale shortly.
2: Roof top installation will mean much of the generated power is used in situ, reducing distribution/transmission losses and possibly reducing the need for reinforcement of the local network, which reduces costs.
3: Its been suggested that self-generating domestic consumers have improved awareness of their own energy use, which might have some benefits in terms of coming to terms with, and adopting, other new energy technologies.
4: There'll be some other reason that I can't remember off the top of my head.
Germany produces 30% of their power from sustainable sources (and manage to peak at 74% on particularly good days)... I believe that they've managed to do this without a significant investment in energy storage technologies.
Germany does have about 6GW of pumped storage capacity but this is only one factor in network management currently. The problems with variable RE have mostly been dealt with as Germany's high voltage grid is well connected with all of its neighbours. Some of them are capable of helping with shortfalls in supply or can respond to sudden peaks in demand quickly, or can help to take high wind output at periods of low internal demand. I've not up to speed on how quickly Germany will need to take further action, its not really a straightforward question, the old approaches will keep things working, but eventually there will be additional costs sufficient to drive some new approaches - smarter grids, active network management, more demand side management, storage, etc. Its not really possible to say what these new approaches will be as yet. Storage is generally seen as something that will help but we're not really sure at what scale, where on networks and when it will be needed, nor how much the tech will improve by the time it is needed.
posted by biffa at 6:40 AM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]
At current peak rates, this thing stores about $2 worth of power. So if you only used it to sell stored solar power and had to sell at typical market peak rates, it wouldn't be a spectacular investment at all.
posted by scruss at 1:20 PM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 1:20 PM on May 3, 2015 [1 favorite]
You wouldn't do that though, you would use the stored solar power yourself to defray your usage outside the sunshine hours. That way you would be saving the domestic market cost of taking power from the grid, but that depends on the local overlap between peak/offpeak and sunshine/not sunny. If you save yourself $2/day on a $3500 investment that's only a 4.8 year payback, which is pretty good. There's a lot of evidence from UK PV usage that people use hardly any of their self-generated power as they are mostly at work in the daylight hours so their economics aren't nearly as good as they are for people at home all day. A small battery like this would enable shifting of some of the power going to the grid in the day to home use in the evening and genuinely save full tariff electricity. There might then be some additional income potential if the system gets smarter and allows more dynamic pricing at some future point which might enable one or more additional cycles of night time charging from the grid followed by morning selling.
posted by biffa at 8:14 AM on May 4, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 8:14 AM on May 4, 2015 [1 favorite]
A small battery like this would enable shifting of some of the power going to the grid in the day to home use in the evening and genuinely save full tariff electricity.
I don't quite get what you're saying here. If you can sell power back to the grid during the day to offset peak loads, and buy power from the grid at night (with an off-peak discount), why do you need to store your excess power in a battery? The problem that you're describing sounds regulatory, not technological.
posted by schmod at 9:21 AM on May 4, 2015
I don't quite get what you're saying here. If you can sell power back to the grid during the day to offset peak loads, and buy power from the grid at night (with an off-peak discount), why do you need to store your excess power in a battery? The problem that you're describing sounds regulatory, not technological.
posted by schmod at 9:21 AM on May 4, 2015
And, yeah. I'm probably coming across as a naysayer here. Cheap lithium batteries are cool (as long as Tesla aren't dumping them at a loss).
However, I don't think they're front-page news, or going to enter the mainstream anytime soon. I'm also baffled that Tesla scaled up production before solving the stability problems. I think most people agree that the current generation of Li-Ion batteries are going to be seen as a transitional technology in the long-term, given that there are a lot of promising alternative technologies in the pipeline.
posted by schmod at 9:32 AM on May 4, 2015
However, I don't think they're front-page news, or going to enter the mainstream anytime soon. I'm also baffled that Tesla scaled up production before solving the stability problems. I think most people agree that the current generation of Li-Ion batteries are going to be seen as a transitional technology in the long-term, given that there are a lot of promising alternative technologies in the pipeline.
posted by schmod at 9:32 AM on May 4, 2015
Domestic PV is mostly used on a subsidised basis in the EU, generally with a tariff mechanism. The economics of the PV depend on:
1: The amount of subsidy per unit energy generated.
2: How much of the electricity you generate yourself you use yourself, since this reduces what you have to source from the grid.
The better your demand fits with your generation the better the economics of your PV panels will be. Economically viable storage might enable you to capture solar power during the day and use it as necessary, rather than letting it go to the grid. This is a regulatory framework issue, but tariffs are likely to continue on this basis, albeit with steadily reducing unit energy value. It may be that significant uptake of storage might start being taken into account if it starts to impact the economics of domestic PV.
Its always worth bearing in mind that when you sell to the grid you can end up with a wholesale price, but if you can store your own power then you can defray the consumer price, which is a lot higher (since it accounts for generation, transmission, distribution and the supplier's mark up). This is of course complicated by how tariffs apply. There's also a lot of variation for local regulation.
posted by biffa at 10:04 AM on May 4, 2015
1: The amount of subsidy per unit energy generated.
2: How much of the electricity you generate yourself you use yourself, since this reduces what you have to source from the grid.
The better your demand fits with your generation the better the economics of your PV panels will be. Economically viable storage might enable you to capture solar power during the day and use it as necessary, rather than letting it go to the grid. This is a regulatory framework issue, but tariffs are likely to continue on this basis, albeit with steadily reducing unit energy value. It may be that significant uptake of storage might start being taken into account if it starts to impact the economics of domestic PV.
Its always worth bearing in mind that when you sell to the grid you can end up with a wholesale price, but if you can store your own power then you can defray the consumer price, which is a lot higher (since it accounts for generation, transmission, distribution and the supplier's mark up). This is of course complicated by how tariffs apply. There's also a lot of variation for local regulation.
posted by biffa at 10:04 AM on May 4, 2015
Watch Out: The Second Coming of Solar Is Here - "We haven't realized it yet, but solar has won."
#UpdatedCost: "I had initially assumed that daily 7kwh cycling was impossible, despite the specs Tesla provided. No Li-ion battery today can handle 3650 discharges to 100% depth. But Robert Fransman has done the math on the weight of the battery vs. Tesla car batteries. He suggests that the 7kwh battery is actually a 12kwh battery under the hood. Discharging a battery to 60% 3650 times is still a stretch, but much closer to plausible. Tesla may here be just assuming they'll have to replace some on warranty before 10 years, but given that the price of batteries is plunging, future replacement is far less expensive."
The Smart Business Model Play in Solar Energy Solutions
posted by kliuless at 10:19 AM on May 4, 2015 [5 favorites]
The installed cost of solar in 2007, when the CSI began, was nearly $10/watt of generating capacity. Today it’s down to just over $5/watt for residential and about $4/watt for utility scale projects.Why Tesla’s announcement is such a big deal: The coming revolution in energy storage
Expressed another way, the average cost in the U.S. of generating energy from the sun is about $130 per megawatt hour compared to coal-fired generation at $147 and conventional natural gas generation at $128. Solar, installed where the energy is used, is also more efficient than large centralized generation where electrons must travel many miles over transmission lines, losing over 6% of the energy along the way, meaning the effect of every megawatt of solar is greater to the nation’s energy supply than conventional systems.
Almost everybody focusing the Tesla story has homed in on home batteries – but in truth, the biggest impact of storage could occur at the level of the electricity grid as a whole. Indeed, GTM Research’s survey of the storage market found that 90 percent of deployments are currently at the utility scale, rather than in homes and businesses.@ramez[*]
That’s probably just the beginning: A late 2014 study by the Brattle Group, prepared for mega-Texas utility Oncor, found that energy storage “appears to be on the verge of becoming quite economically attractive” and that the benefits of deploying storage across Texas would “significantly exceed costs” thanks to improved energy grid reliability. Oncor has proposed spending as much as $ 5.2 billion on storage investments in the state. California, too, has directed state utilities to start developing storage capacity – for specifically environmental reasons...
This will be appealing to power companies, notes Purchas, because “gas is very quick to respond, but it’s not anywhere near as quick as battery, which can be done in seconds, as opposed to minutes with gas.” The consequences of adding large amounts of storage to the grid, then, could be not only a lot fewer greenhouse gas emissions, but also better performance.
1. The Tesla battery is actually even better than I thought. Highly disruptive at utility scale. Pro-solar worldwide.vs. natgas[*]
2. At this price, Tesla battery is hugely pro-solar in Germany, Australia, Spain, Hawaii, maybe even India.
3. Tesla battery is $250/kwh at utility scale. Cheap enough to kill Natural Gas peakers.
4. Tesla battery coverage outliers generally wrong. It's nether a 2c/kwh nuclear killer nor a 50c/kwh toy. It's a disruption in process.
5. Like most disruptions, Tesla battery will sell to early adopters: Those who get big value (Australia, Germany) + those w great enthusiasm
6. Tesla battery isn't an end-point. Storage prices will keep plunging, thx to early market.
1. Real chance that every new natural gas plant built is a stranded asset. Real cost of NG electricity is much higher if you write off early.I don't think they're front-page news, or going to enter the mainstream anytime soon. I'm also baffled that Tesla scaled up production before solving the stability problems. I think most people agree that the current generation of Li-Ion batteries are going to be seen as a transitional technology in the long-term, given that there are a lot of promising alternative technologies in the pipeline.
2. Unlike coal, high % of cost of NG electricity is the fuel. So when wind/solar cheaper than NG broadly (soon), NG loses money.
3. NG plants built on ~40yr amortization. If you shut one down at year 10, NG electricity price ~doubles. Stranded assets are expensive.
4. A running nat gas powerplant is easier to price undercut than running coal plant. 4x fuel cost. Not good for NG in face of disruption.
#UpdatedCost: "I had initially assumed that daily 7kwh cycling was impossible, despite the specs Tesla provided. No Li-ion battery today can handle 3650 discharges to 100% depth. But Robert Fransman has done the math on the weight of the battery vs. Tesla car batteries. He suggests that the 7kwh battery is actually a 12kwh battery under the hood. Discharging a battery to 60% 3650 times is still a stretch, but much closer to plausible. Tesla may here be just assuming they'll have to replace some on warranty before 10 years, but given that the price of batteries is plunging, future replacement is far less expensive."
The Smart Business Model Play in Solar Energy Solutions
My view on the key drivers when thinking about business strategy:Tesla and the politics of climate changeSo while there will be clearly winners in the panel and battery space the risks and capital required are enormous. There are better opportunities in deploying innovative business models in the space including:
- Just as many solar manufacturers have bitten the dust over the last decade the same will apply to battery manufacturers and start up battery companies in the next decade, as well as being a continuing issue in the panel industry.
- One of the main problems with Lithium Ion batteries is the charge and discharge cycle lifetime. From a cost per kWh storage point of view the shorter the life cycle then the higher the cost as the initial capital costs have to be depreciated over less energy usage. Therefore alternative battery storage options have to be a key competitor in the space. There is lots of investment going on in technology development. So to win you either have to have the capital backing that companies like Tesla boast or pick the right technology and take the development risk.
- Particularly at a household level the costs are related as much to installation and deployment model as to cost of the technology (just as transistors are only a fraction of smartphone or tablet costs).
- At the household level adoption issues beyond costs will also be critical.
That strategy is hardware technology agnostic in that it integrates with a range of technologies that users are adopting. This means they do not tie themselves to any particular hardware solution and avoid riding on top of a technology that fails.
- Models for landlords that get around the issues of the landlords bearing the capital costs and tenants gaining the cost reduction on their power bills. This includes leasing and income sharing models driven by algorithms.
- Efficient and low cost installation models that drive down the costs of installation and maintenance.
- Financing models that allow installation for people that otherwise could not afford installation.
- Community models that integrate use of the grid into distributed generation, storage and consumption models that reduce costs to consumers while improving the income for local generators and renewable energy systems...
Assuming the Tesla system comes anywhere near meeting its announced specifications, and noting that electric cars are also on the market from Tesla and others, we now have just about everything we need for a technological fix for climate change, based on a combination of renewable energy and energy efficiency, at a cost that’s a small fraction of global income (and hence a small fraction of national income for any country) .or iow: "The left is going to have to stop using climate change as a reason to end capitalism."
That’s something hardly anyone expected (certainly not me) a decade ago. And, given how strongly people are attached to their opinions, and especially their public commitments, there is bound to be a lot of resistance to this conclusion. Based on the evidence available a decade ago, people drew some of the following conclusions:
(a) decarbonizing the energy sector will require radical economic changes which will entail the end of industrial society/capitalism as we know it
(b) conclusion (a) is true and therefore climate change must be an enviro-socialist hoax
(c) any solution must involve a return to nuclear power on a massive scale
(d) any solution must involve the development and deployment of a “clean coal” technology
(e) a market-based solution will require a very high carbon price, say $100/tonne
I was in group (e), and was still talking about prices up to $100/tonne as recently as 2012. But it’s easy to revise a price number downwards in the light of technological change, much harder to revise strongly held and publicly stated conclusions like (a)-(d).
So, I’m not going to bother trying to demonstrate the assertion that a technological fix is now possible – from past experience, demonstrations of such points are futile. Rather, I’m going to spend some time thinking about the implications for the next round of global climate policy, and what constructive contributions I can make to getting Australia back on tract.
posted by kliuless at 10:19 AM on May 4, 2015 [5 favorites]
kliuless: As exciting as the price drop in solar PV and battery storage appears, we're still a long way from a technological solution to climate change. The best case LUEC for solar PV is 13 to 20 cents / kWh (Ontario has to buy it at almost 30 c/kWh to encourage development). But Solar PV gives a Capacity Factor of only 25%, meaning the grid has to cover the other 75% with something else (right now, its natural gas for the most part). If we cost in distributed batteries, then add another 5-15 cents / kWh amortized over the battery life. That comes out to 20-50 c/kWh total for Solar PV, depending on how optimistic you are about future price drops. You would still require a steep carbon price to give an economic incentive to switch en-mass from coal power at 4-6 c/kWh.
Transportation emissions are another issue, and I really don't think the battery cost/performance curve is dropping anywhere near fast enough to replace the majority of cars and trucks on the road for a long long time, much as I wish otherwise.
But you are right, price is a magical force. If we can get the amortized energy and storage costs down to only a few cents per kWh, so that the crazy huge investment we would need to install gigawatts of solar PV and batteries required looks profitable, we might see a pretty rapid change in the energy mix.
posted by Popular Ethics at 1:46 PM on May 4, 2015
Transportation emissions are another issue, and I really don't think the battery cost/performance curve is dropping anywhere near fast enough to replace the majority of cars and trucks on the road for a long long time, much as I wish otherwise.
But you are right, price is a magical force. If we can get the amortized energy and storage costs down to only a few cents per kWh, so that the crazy huge investment we would need to install gigawatts of solar PV and batteries required looks profitable, we might see a pretty rapid change in the energy mix.
posted by Popular Ethics at 1:46 PM on May 4, 2015
Here's a question, does this make charging stations for cars more attractive? Like, will garages have these?
posted by lumpenprole at 1:51 PM on May 4, 2015
posted by lumpenprole at 1:51 PM on May 4, 2015
No, they would just take direct from the grid.
There might be some price incentives to go to a charging point outside peak hours but we'll see how that comes out if we get EVs, i.e. what sort of system consumers will select for.
posted by biffa at 2:12 PM on May 4, 2015
There might be some price incentives to go to a charging point outside peak hours but we'll see how that comes out if we get EVs, i.e. what sort of system consumers will select for.
posted by biffa at 2:12 PM on May 4, 2015
Interesting email I just got from my solar installer:
Most of you have heard that Tesla has come out with a battery backup system for your home that integrates with solar called the Tesla Power Wall(TPW). We are very excited about this product and its potential and plan to offer it as soon as we can get a handle on the realities of integrating the product with your systems. We are essentially researching the ‘reality’ of the product verses the hype of a great marketing campaign.posted by Chrysostom at 10:56 AM on May 7, 2015 [1 favorite]
The two primary issues we see with the TPW.
First it has a very low output when in off grid mode. It will only provide 8.6amps of power continuous compared to the typical systems we put in which provide 56-112amps. To put this in perspective, one wall outlet is typically capable of delivering between 15 and 20 amps, over twice what the TPW is capable of.
Second it is unclear what additional equipment is required to integrate with solar. Tesla has confirmed the system is not ‘plug and play’ but cannot identify what equipment is missing nor what other manufacturers they are compatible with at this time.
Chrysostom, your solar installer is correct about the second issue they mention, but their first issue erroneously conflates power with electric current. The Tesla Powerwall operating voltage is ~400 volts, so it's peak output power is 8.6 amps * 400 volts ~= 3400 watts. Regarding the "typical systems we put in" it is unclear from their note whether their "56-112 amps" refers to output of the DC-AC inverter in their systems or the output of the battery bank in their systems. If we assume they are comparing apples to apples and thus talking about the battery bank in their systems, a very common operating voltage for a solar battery bank using lead-acid batteries (assuming about 1000 pounds of batteries) is 48 volts. This gives their systems a peak output power of 56-112 amps * 48 volts = 2688-5376 watts. This range of values is roughly comparable to the Tesla lithium ion battery bank.
posted by RichardP at 12:49 PM on May 8, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by RichardP at 12:49 PM on May 8, 2015 [2 favorites]
Why the World Is Betting on a Better Battery: A Reading List
posted by the man of twists and turns at 10:58 PM on May 12, 2015
posted by the man of twists and turns at 10:58 PM on May 12, 2015
Sunvault Energy and Edison Power Company Create Massive 10,000 Farad Graphene Supercapacitor (via) - "Currently the cost to manufacture a lithium battery is about $500 (USD) per/ kWh. Tesla recently announced a Super Factory to be built in Nevada, with a promise to get the price of lithium batteries down to $150 USD per kWh by 2020, our current cost estimated for this type of graphene base supercapacitor is about $100 per kWh today and we feel confident we should be able to cut this pricing in half by the end of 2015."
posted by kliuless at 3:45 PM on May 28, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by kliuless at 3:45 PM on May 28, 2015 [1 favorite]
That's potentially huge, but it wasn't all that clear how close they are to actual market.
I think a big difference is that you can literally go and buy one of these Tesla things (or at least order and receive a shipping date)
It sounds from the article that they are nearly to market, but I wonder if that's like 3 months nearly to market or 5 years nearly to market. It could be either.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:50 AM on May 29, 2015
I think a big difference is that you can literally go and buy one of these Tesla things (or at least order and receive a shipping date)
It sounds from the article that they are nearly to market, but I wonder if that's like 3 months nearly to market or 5 years nearly to market. It could be either.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:50 AM on May 29, 2015
I wonder if that's like 3 months nearly to market or 5 years nearly to market. It could be either.
Indeed.
posted by flabdablet at 6:07 PM on May 30, 2015 [2 favorites]
Indeed.
posted by flabdablet at 6:07 PM on May 30, 2015 [2 favorites]
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The questions I have are: What are these batteries made of? Where is it sourced from? What damage does it do to the world around the extraction points? Will people living near those extraction points who might be affected by the toxic damage done by extraction be moved and established at a higher living standard than they had previously in another location? Or will the extraction process finally be rendered entirely harmless to humans? (and other questions)
Basically: MAKE MANUFACTURING THESE AS FUCKING GOOD FOR HUMANS AS YOU ARE MARKETING IT AS BEING FOR HUMANS AFTER IT IS MANUFACTURED.
Because that is what the pursuit should be, ultimately. IMO.
posted by hippybear at 2:46 AM on May 1, 2015 [16 favorites]