Because rent in SF isn't high enough already
May 21, 2016 6:23 PM Subscribe
"Rentberry is a new startup that turns the rental process into a quasi-auction. (I saw this on Tumblr and I thought no way, it can’t be real, but IT’S TOTALLY REAL.) Tenants register with Rentberry, look at available listings, and bid on how much they’d be willing to pay in rent. Landlords examine all of the potential tenants and their bids, and make a decision. If you’re all “bidding on rent is a terrible idea,” I absolutely agree with you—but according to San Francisco’s Curbed blog, some people are already making bids in order to secure apartments."
when do they go public? because fucking the lower middle class seems like a growth sector. i want in.
totally not really
posted by j_curiouser at 6:31 PM on May 21, 2016 [22 favorites]
totally not really
posted by j_curiouser at 6:31 PM on May 21, 2016 [22 favorites]
So, they're banking on landlords not needing to set a price being legal?
IS not setting a price for rental applicants legal?
posted by Slackermagee at 6:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [3 favorites]
IS not setting a price for rental applicants legal?
posted by Slackermagee at 6:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [3 favorites]
The logical outcome is a city populated exclusively by trustafarians who don't actually do anything.
posted by JohnFromGR at 6:39 PM on May 21, 2016 [12 favorites]
posted by JohnFromGR at 6:39 PM on May 21, 2016 [12 favorites]
I'm just imagining what this is going to do in college towns, where rents are driven up by students on loans. I've already been priced out. Rent has gone up almost $200 per month since I moved here for graduate school. I'm moving to a satellite town rather than renew my lease because there is literally no affordable housing.
IS not setting a price for rental applicants legal?
I don't know, but I know that in my hometown, it was once fairly common to negotiate a lower rent than the one that was advertised. But that was before rents were as insane as they were; nowadays I suspect renters don't have the leverage to do that except for really undesirable/troubled units.
(And I know it's just SF now but if this catches on I imagine they'll expand.)
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 6:40 PM on May 21, 2016
IS not setting a price for rental applicants legal?
I don't know, but I know that in my hometown, it was once fairly common to negotiate a lower rent than the one that was advertised. But that was before rents were as insane as they were; nowadays I suspect renters don't have the leverage to do that except for really undesirable/troubled units.
(And I know it's just SF now but if this catches on I imagine they'll expand.)
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 6:40 PM on May 21, 2016
I am so glad I saw San Francisco before it turned into Mordor.
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:40 PM on May 21, 2016 [87 favorites]
posted by Bringer Tom at 6:40 PM on May 21, 2016 [87 favorites]
The move toward YA novel style dystopia is somehow happening faster than I was expecting.
posted by hippybear at 6:41 PM on May 21, 2016 [45 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 6:41 PM on May 21, 2016 [45 favorites]
The logical outcome is a city populated exclusively by trustafarians who don't actually do anything.
I am in favor of this. Once they are all in one convenient location, we can wall off the city and sink it into the sea.
posted by Mrs. Davros at 6:49 PM on May 21, 2016 [15 favorites]
I am in favor of this. Once they are all in one convenient location, we can wall off the city and sink it into the sea.
posted by Mrs. Davros at 6:49 PM on May 21, 2016 [15 favorites]
/cue maniacal laughter
posted by Slinga at 6:52 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by Slinga at 6:52 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
I'll see your firstborn and raise you ALL THE FIRSTBORN SONS OF EGYPT.
posted by adept256 at 6:53 PM on May 21, 2016 [8 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 6:53 PM on May 21, 2016 [8 favorites]
In some ways I would prefer this over the open house approach, where 20 people all fill in applications while eyeing each other warily, but there are of course obvious downsides.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 6:55 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by Jon Mitchell at 6:55 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
With good jobs with benefits increasingly at a premium I predict that someday soon people will be bidding for them.
posted by Tullyogallaghan at 6:55 PM on May 21, 2016 [15 favorites]
posted by Tullyogallaghan at 6:55 PM on May 21, 2016 [15 favorites]
No one will use this.
posted by The Devil Tesla at 6:59 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by The Devil Tesla at 6:59 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
For landlords in San Francisco, it's already common for eager renters to "bid" above the posted rent to secure the lease. Why invite a middle man who wants to take a significant cut? Just for the convenience of not having to wade through offers? This isn't a good model for a landlord who is familiar with the established landscape.
posted by quince at 7:05 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
posted by quince at 7:05 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
Once they are all in one convenient location, we can wall off the city
We tried that!
posted by slater at 7:06 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
We tried that!
posted by slater at 7:06 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
I'm just imagining what this is going to do in college towns, where rents are driven up by students on loans.
Same reason rents seem to have no limit in the bay. When your company is funded by magic, no reason you can't just pay your employees whatever it takes for them to afford the ever-increasing rent. Everyone who works for companies or organizations more grounded in the real world are kind of just fucked.
posted by bradbane at 7:14 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
Same reason rents seem to have no limit in the bay. When your company is funded by magic, no reason you can't just pay your employees whatever it takes for them to afford the ever-increasing rent. Everyone who works for companies or organizations more grounded in the real world are kind of just fucked.
posted by bradbane at 7:14 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
hippybear: The move toward YA novel style dystopia is somehow happening faster than I was expecting.
Who's the misunderstood one with special powers that's going rise up and break the system and save us all? Is it me? (It's not me.)
posted by bluecore at 7:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [15 favorites]
Who's the misunderstood one with special powers that's going rise up and break the system and save us all? Is it me? (It's not me.)
posted by bluecore at 7:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [15 favorites]
"The logical outcome is a city populated exclusively by trustafarians who don't actually do anything."
So, San Francisco?
posted by kevinbelt at 7:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
So, San Francisco?
posted by kevinbelt at 7:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
For the record, I used to work for a startup in the SF East Bay that paid its employees a "ramen-level salary." That's what they said and it was true. Imaginary not-actually-real stock options were supposed to make everything A-OK. One poor guy commuted from Pittsburg to San Leandro, which is pretty damn far, and the only perks (literally) were the cream cheese, bagels, and frozen burritos that the company bought at Costco once a week. People were living off that shit because they had no money. So FYI, not all startups are well funded by overfed old white male VCs with more money than sense. And not all tech sector employees are pulling down the big bucks. Tl;dr: Plenty of tech folks get screwed, too.
posted by Bella Donna at 7:33 PM on May 21, 2016 [17 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 7:33 PM on May 21, 2016 [17 favorites]
The logical outcome is a city populated exclusively by trustafarians who don't actually do anything.
Welcome to Portland.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:34 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
Welcome to Portland.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:34 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
The logical outcome is a city populated exclusively by trustafarians who don't actually do anything.
The seething, ceaseless effort to develop new and shittier forms of digitally-enabled rent seeking (no pun intended) is so goddamn depressing. There's a colossal amount of time, talent, and energy being wasted on the social equivalent of strip mining.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:35 PM on May 21, 2016 [57 favorites]
The seething, ceaseless effort to develop new and shittier forms of digitally-enabled rent seeking (no pun intended) is so goddamn depressing. There's a colossal amount of time, talent, and energy being wasted on the social equivalent of strip mining.
posted by ryanshepard at 7:35 PM on May 21, 2016 [57 favorites]
Disruptors gonna disrupt.
The amount of money and brain power going into the bay area in a desperate attempt to cash in on the next decacorn is pretty fucking amazing. Instead of doing inspiring stuff like send people to the moon or curing diseases we seem to be consuming an ever increasing percentage of our intellectual capital on ways to squeeze every ounce of efficiency out of the system rather than maybe creating a whole new playing field.
posted by vuron at 7:41 PM on May 21, 2016 [34 favorites]
The amount of money and brain power going into the bay area in a desperate attempt to cash in on the next decacorn is pretty fucking amazing. Instead of doing inspiring stuff like send people to the moon or curing diseases we seem to be consuming an ever increasing percentage of our intellectual capital on ways to squeeze every ounce of efficiency out of the system rather than maybe creating a whole new playing field.
posted by vuron at 7:41 PM on May 21, 2016 [34 favorites]
The existing process is... already an auction of sorts. This is less of a change than OutrageFilter seems to think it is, and is definitely a distraction from the real causes of high urban rents.
posted by ripley_ at 7:44 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
posted by ripley_ at 7:44 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
So is Rentberry the housing version of Personal Seat Licensing?
posted by stannate at 7:52 PM on May 21, 2016
posted by stannate at 7:52 PM on May 21, 2016
Couldn't speculation become a thing in this system?
posted by drezdn at 7:57 PM on May 21, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by drezdn at 7:57 PM on May 21, 2016 [3 favorites]
If we could have a system where speculation wasn't a thing, the entire everything would work a lot better.
posted by hippybear at 7:59 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 7:59 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
This looks like mostly hype to me, but, in case it's not, I fervently hope landlords and tenants do as they have always done to screw over brokers, which is: now that they know who each other are, close the deal outside the system and pay them nothing.
posted by praemunire at 8:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by praemunire at 8:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
Couldn't speculation become a thing in this system?
No, my app will be called BerryFlipper. After utilizing patented eBay-tested auction sniping bots to grab the apartment, my app flips it six times in a day, establishing a new price floor and taking a cut each time*.
* See recent shenanigans in the Vancouver market where a realtor would set up a bunch of escalating deals for one 7 or 8 figure property, all executing in a row within a couple hours or days, collecting their fee each time.
posted by fatbird at 8:30 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
No, my app will be called BerryFlipper. After utilizing patented eBay-tested auction sniping bots to grab the apartment, my app flips it six times in a day, establishing a new price floor and taking a cut each time*.
* See recent shenanigans in the Vancouver market where a realtor would set up a bunch of escalating deals for one 7 or 8 figure property, all executing in a row within a couple hours or days, collecting their fee each time.
posted by fatbird at 8:30 PM on May 21, 2016 [14 favorites]
Situations like the one vuron outlined above make me think that the Golgafrinchans had a good idea. Here's to hoping in ten years the Bay Area's tech royalty all win a lottery to fly to Mars on Elon Musk's B Ark.
posted by infinitewindow at 8:30 PM on May 21, 2016 [9 favorites]
posted by infinitewindow at 8:30 PM on May 21, 2016 [9 favorites]
now that they know who each other are, close the deal outside the system and pay them nothing
I'm sure Rentberry has that covered on the first lease signing, but thereafter, if you're the landlord, why wouldn't you just raise the rent by whatever vig was? What's the tenant going to do? Go back to Rentberry and pay over market for a different place?
This is awful. It makes me want to buy a rental unit and offer it through this service. (Y'all are looking it at the wrong way: it's only bad if you're a renter. If you can somehow bootstrap yourself into property ownership, it's a sweet deal!)
posted by spacewrench at 8:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
I'm sure Rentberry has that covered on the first lease signing, but thereafter, if you're the landlord, why wouldn't you just raise the rent by whatever vig was? What's the tenant going to do? Go back to Rentberry and pay over market for a different place?
This is awful. It makes me want to buy a rental unit and offer it through this service. (Y'all are looking it at the wrong way: it's only bad if you're a renter. If you can somehow bootstrap yourself into property ownership, it's a sweet deal!)
posted by spacewrench at 8:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
I saw this on SFGate last week - I didn't click on the article, just read the headline - and felt sick with rage, like literally sick and shaking at my desk. I volunteer at the food bank, I put together candy and hygiene packs for homeless kids, at least a couple of times a week I look at the shelf of YA novels I've helped publish and wonder if I'm doing harm because so many of them have white protagonists while my company pats itself on the back for diversity in our picture books... and someone else looks at our city, where teachers can no longer afford to live, and thinks, "How can I line my pockets by making all of this more unlivable for everybody?" I cannot even fathom the mindset. What a sick, sad, empty existence. I almost feel sorry for them.
posted by sunset in snow country at 8:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [21 favorites]
posted by sunset in snow country at 8:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [21 favorites]
If you can somehow bootstrap yourself into property ownership, it's a sweet deal!
That's pretty much the modern economy in a nutshell (well, if by property ownership, we refer to commercial property ownership, or owning multiple places you can rent out).
posted by drezdn at 9:05 PM on May 21, 2016 [4 favorites]
That's pretty much the modern economy in a nutshell (well, if by property ownership, we refer to commercial property ownership, or owning multiple places you can rent out).
posted by drezdn at 9:05 PM on May 21, 2016 [4 favorites]
Picking a tenant based on the price they're willing to pay sounds a bit fairer than forcing everyone to offer the same price, then leaving the landlord to offer the unit based on race, gender, class or whatever unconscious bias they are operating on.
This price discovery works in the reverse too and I doubt anyone will be complaining about closing a deal lower than the starting price. The first rental I took was going for 1550 and I told them I would offer a max of 1300 and they accepted.
posted by xdvesper at 9:08 PM on May 21, 2016 [3 favorites]
This price discovery works in the reverse too and I doubt anyone will be complaining about closing a deal lower than the starting price. The first rental I took was going for 1550 and I told them I would offer a max of 1300 and they accepted.
posted by xdvesper at 9:08 PM on May 21, 2016 [3 favorites]
I look at the shelf of YA novels I've helped publish and wonder if I'm doing harm because so many of them have white protagonist
I know that this is off-topic, but in the novel, Katnis does not have blue eyes. They white-washed her for the flicks.
posted by adept256 at 9:14 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
I know that this is off-topic, but in the novel, Katnis does not have blue eyes. They white-washed her for the flicks.
posted by adept256 at 9:14 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
OK, can we just make a pact now that whoever lists their apartment on here gets their building burnt to the ground?
posted by sexyrobot at 9:19 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by sexyrobot at 9:19 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
Yeah, when I moved to the Bay in 2000, this was happening in San Francisco already, but it was always in-person and as cutthroat as possible, exploiting the fears of a frantic and oversaturated rental market and way too much money floating around (which is why I lived in Fremont). It's not surprising that it's happening again, nor that the internet facilitates the bidding.
posted by krinklyfig at 9:20 PM on May 21, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by krinklyfig at 9:20 PM on May 21, 2016 [2 favorites]
Can we please get another tech wreck like back in 2000 (or thereabouts)? Things are really getting out of hand.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 9:27 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 9:27 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
modern economy in a nutshell
Actually, I don't think it's that modern. I'm not an economist, but it seems reasonable that it's always worked this way. It's just more efficient (and much faster) now.
Unions and the like would be a solution if they weren't equally corrupt. If all the people who can't afford to live somewhere (and everybody who's stretched uncomfortably thin) moved somewhere else, the rentiers would be right fucked. But there's always somebody who'd rather live on a shoestring in California than phat in Des Moines. (And I can't say I really blame them.) And as long as there's That Guy, the Modern Economy will continue to pump wealth to the wealthy. That's its purpose, after all. The Republicans are just especially adept at greasing the machinery. (Apologies for getting a bit off topic.)
posted by spacewrench at 9:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
Actually, I don't think it's that modern. I'm not an economist, but it seems reasonable that it's always worked this way. It's just more efficient (and much faster) now.
Unions and the like would be a solution if they weren't equally corrupt. If all the people who can't afford to live somewhere (and everybody who's stretched uncomfortably thin) moved somewhere else, the rentiers would be right fucked. But there's always somebody who'd rather live on a shoestring in California than phat in Des Moines. (And I can't say I really blame them.) And as long as there's That Guy, the Modern Economy will continue to pump wealth to the wealthy. That's its purpose, after all. The Republicans are just especially adept at greasing the machinery. (Apologies for getting a bit off topic.)
posted by spacewrench at 9:32 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
> The first rental I took was going for 1550 and I told them I would offer a max of 1300 and they accepted
In San Francisco? This century?
posted by The corpse in the library at 9:33 PM on May 21, 2016 [9 favorites]
In San Francisco? This century?
posted by The corpse in the library at 9:33 PM on May 21, 2016 [9 favorites]
How about instead of using technology to raise prices for squabbling over insufficient housing in San Francisco, we use technology to invent floating island communities around San Francisco, or we use technology to develop teleporters to allow a nice easy commute to San Francisco from a home somewhere in the south pacific, or we use technology to build a subterranean arcology underneath San Francisco, or...
Using technology to make hellish things more hellish just seems kinda like we're not aiming very high...
More Star Trek plz, less cyberpunk thnx
posted by -harlequin- at 9:35 PM on May 21, 2016 [13 favorites]
Using technology to make hellish things more hellish just seems kinda like we're not aiming very high...
More Star Trek plz, less cyberpunk thnx
posted by -harlequin- at 9:35 PM on May 21, 2016 [13 favorites]
I'm sure Rentberry has that covered on the first lease signing, but thereafter, if you're the landlord, why wouldn't you just raise the rent by whatever vig was?
"So sorry, Rentberry, it didn't work out with so-and-so."
Meanwhile, a lease is quietly signed. If you give the renter even 10% of the fee saved, they come out ahead. The rent will go up the next year, but it was going to do that anyways.
In the real world, brokers have various ways of ensuring "broker protection," but I think they would be a lot harder to enforce in the present scenario. Get to it, wily city folk!
posted by praemunire at 9:50 PM on May 21, 2016 [4 favorites]
"So sorry, Rentberry, it didn't work out with so-and-so."
Meanwhile, a lease is quietly signed. If you give the renter even 10% of the fee saved, they come out ahead. The rent will go up the next year, but it was going to do that anyways.
In the real world, brokers have various ways of ensuring "broker protection," but I think they would be a lot harder to enforce in the present scenario. Get to it, wily city folk!
posted by praemunire at 9:50 PM on May 21, 2016 [4 favorites]
This is well worth a read.
Eric Fischer lives in San Francisco and he recent published rental data for the city going back to 1956 that he transcribed by hand from archived copies of The Chronicle. His post is here and a good summary of it is here.
TL;DR - Not enough units, too many jobs with salaries that are too high.
posted by Long Way To Go at 9:57 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
Eric Fischer lives in San Francisco and he recent published rental data for the city going back to 1956 that he transcribed by hand from archived copies of The Chronicle. His post is here and a good summary of it is here.
TL;DR - Not enough units, too many jobs with salaries that are too high.
posted by Long Way To Go at 9:57 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
On their web page is this kinda sentence, "Already know what do you want to rent?" I know my writing leaves a lot to be desired but I am not a start up. I would think twice about dealing with a company that cannot write a correct sentence.
posted by cairnoflore at 9:59 PM on May 21, 2016 [8 favorites]
posted by cairnoflore at 9:59 PM on May 21, 2016 [8 favorites]
Is there any system in place to identify "legitimate" bids; ie, to prevent landlords and loltrolls from artificially inflating the price (ok, I mean beyond the already grotesquely artificial)?
posted by zinful at 10:16 PM on May 21, 2016
posted by zinful at 10:16 PM on May 21, 2016
wait what the hell am I asking it already has happened.
that's like asking whether the deck chairs have better Feng Shui on the starboard bow of the Titanic
posted by zinful at 10:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
that's like asking whether the deck chairs have better Feng Shui on the starboard bow of the Titanic
posted by zinful at 10:17 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
Have you seen their slogan:
"Rent. Done right. Finally."
A special place in hell for these fuckers.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 10:20 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
"Rent. Done right. Finally."
A special place in hell for these fuckers.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 10:20 PM on May 21, 2016 [7 favorites]
San Francisco is 9 miles by 7 miles. It's a tiny place. I've walked across it from the bay to Golden Gate Park at 3am. Of course there is a lot of competition for rent. This is abominable, but the whole rent-seeking thing of internet startups (taking a fee for transactions that previously had no fee) is what these people think about 24/7 because they don't have any true creativity.
posted by hippybear at 10:21 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 10:21 PM on May 21, 2016 [11 favorites]
I don't want to see true creativity from people immersed and grown in bay area start up cults.
It's like Uber, but as a Borg
posted by Slackermagee at 10:26 PM on May 21, 2016
It's like Uber, but as a Borg
posted by Slackermagee at 10:26 PM on May 21, 2016
You’ll benefit from detailed descriptions of who your prospects are.
Seems like this would enable a number of discrimination lawsuits.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:34 PM on May 21, 2016 [2 favorites]
Seems like this would enable a number of discrimination lawsuits.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 10:34 PM on May 21, 2016 [2 favorites]
The saddest thing is that I think this has already been happening, just not in an official codified way -- I've already heard reports of prospective renters offering more than the asking rent both here and in the East Bay.
posted by en forme de poire at 10:50 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by en forme de poire at 10:50 PM on May 21, 2016 [1 favorite]
Which is actually in the FPP text and the article but independent corroboration I guess, since I didn't read about that on Curbed.
posted by en forme de poire at 10:53 PM on May 21, 2016
posted by en forme de poire at 10:53 PM on May 21, 2016
Couldn't speculation become a thing in this system?
Well, if you buy an apartment you can't exactly hold the month of June off the market to sell later. Speculation can drive up real estate value, but changing who owns the apartment building doesn't directly lead to higher rents. In other markets like Vancouver without an obvious hot employer market to blame, the theory is Chinese speculators buying apartments but not using them. Apps like this might make it easier to put absentee landlords' holdings back on the market.
Eric Fischer lives in San Francisco and he recent published rental data for the city going back to 1956 that he transcribed by hand from archived copies of The Chronicle. His post is here and a good summary of it is here.
I saw that a few days ago, and went looking for disconfirming evidence. There have been a few good critiques: 1) nobody split the data into two to actually test the rent control hypothesis 2) multicolinearity causes the model to be more predictive than it really is 3) overfitting looks really strong there, and a natural outcome of multicolinearity.
On the plus side, the data was made available on github.
posted by pwnguin at 11:04 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
Well, if you buy an apartment you can't exactly hold the month of June off the market to sell later. Speculation can drive up real estate value, but changing who owns the apartment building doesn't directly lead to higher rents. In other markets like Vancouver without an obvious hot employer market to blame, the theory is Chinese speculators buying apartments but not using them. Apps like this might make it easier to put absentee landlords' holdings back on the market.
Eric Fischer lives in San Francisco and he recent published rental data for the city going back to 1956 that he transcribed by hand from archived copies of The Chronicle. His post is here and a good summary of it is here.
I saw that a few days ago, and went looking for disconfirming evidence. There have been a few good critiques: 1) nobody split the data into two to actually test the rent control hypothesis 2) multicolinearity causes the model to be more predictive than it really is 3) overfitting looks really strong there, and a natural outcome of multicolinearity.
On the plus side, the data was made available on github.
posted by pwnguin at 11:04 PM on May 21, 2016 [5 favorites]
There's another thread going about the historical rent data I collected, by the way.
Pwnguin, I did try training the model on just the first half of the data, and it's not as good, but it still does basically work. The model may well still be bogus, though, so if you've got a better explanation of what's going on, please let me know!
I'm skeptical that people holding units off the market makes much difference, but I don't any have any proof that it's not that either. In both Vancouver and San Francisco you could also blame large areas zoned exclusively for single-family houses, inhibiting small-scale apartment development that ought to be cheaper than either single-family houses or downtown towers.
posted by enf at 12:14 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
Pwnguin, I did try training the model on just the first half of the data, and it's not as good, but it still does basically work. The model may well still be bogus, though, so if you've got a better explanation of what's going on, please let me know!
I'm skeptical that people holding units off the market makes much difference, but I don't any have any proof that it's not that either. In both Vancouver and San Francisco you could also blame large areas zoned exclusively for single-family houses, inhibiting small-scale apartment development that ought to be cheaper than either single-family houses or downtown towers.
posted by enf at 12:14 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
How about instead of using technology to raise prices for squabbling over insufficient housing in San Francisco, we use technology to invent floating island communities around San Francisco, or we use technology to develop teleporters to allow a nice easy commute to San Francisco from a home somewhere in the south pacific, or we use technology to build a subterranean arcology underneath San Francisco, or...
So we're apparently at the point where underground arcologies and teleporters seem more plausible than allowing five story apartment buildings to replace two story single-family houses.
posted by alexei at 12:17 AM on May 22, 2016 [29 favorites]
So we're apparently at the point where underground arcologies and teleporters seem more plausible than allowing five story apartment buildings to replace two story single-family houses.
posted by alexei at 12:17 AM on May 22, 2016 [29 favorites]
An ill considered response, but still... here's a song to give folks happy feelings in these troubled times.
posted by Trinity-Gehenna at 12:19 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by Trinity-Gehenna at 12:19 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
The other day someone asked me how I like living in the Bay Area, and I said it's great, aside from the constantly simmering fear that I'll be totally sunk if I ever have to move.
posted by teponaztli at 12:25 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by teponaztli at 12:25 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Building new properties won't really solve this, since new construction projects are funded by financiers under the expectation that rents or purchase price will be based on new-norm property valuation, however ridiculously high that may be. New properties will be mostly luxury-class assets, because that's what makes a good return on investment.
Even if available supply could potentially get high enough to meet demand to a degree that pushes down prices for everyday renters, profits would drop and construction would no longer get financing on as-profitable terms. Fewer new projects would begin, and supply would again be constrained until profits are back to the new-norm valuation.
It seems unlikely that the free market will be able to solve this.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:47 AM on May 22, 2016 [2 favorites]
Even if available supply could potentially get high enough to meet demand to a degree that pushes down prices for everyday renters, profits would drop and construction would no longer get financing on as-profitable terms. Fewer new projects would begin, and supply would again be constrained until profits are back to the new-norm valuation.
It seems unlikely that the free market will be able to solve this.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:47 AM on May 22, 2016 [2 favorites]
It seems unlikely that the free market will be able to solve this.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:47 AM
Well, we can add that to the already huge list of other things the free market is incapable of solving. It may simply be me, but that list seems to be getting longer and longer each day.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 1:39 AM on May 22, 2016 [8 favorites]
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:47 AM
Well, we can add that to the already huge list of other things the free market is incapable of solving. It may simply be me, but that list seems to be getting longer and longer each day.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 1:39 AM on May 22, 2016 [8 favorites]
And by "the free market" I mean the policies of the governments of the west minus the Scandinavian countries. (Dang, I wish I could become the spouse of a nice Norwegian woman.)
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 1:44 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 1:44 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
Is there no market on earth that doesn’t have an SV startup looking for ways to insert their vampire squid-like blood funnel into in order to extract value by making themselves the market maker? Push the risk onto the end-users and run off with as much of the consumer surplus as you can carry - it’s the new SV way!
posted by pharm at 2:02 AM on May 22, 2016 [5 favorites]
posted by pharm at 2:02 AM on May 22, 2016 [5 favorites]
San Francisco was better before Atlas Shrugged displaced Illuminatus! and/or the writings of the Beats as the city's defining literature.
posted by acb at 2:38 AM on May 22, 2016 [22 favorites]
posted by acb at 2:38 AM on May 22, 2016 [22 favorites]
The move toward YA novel style dystopia is somehow happening faster than I was expecting.I've been thinking about the relative ease at which a YA dystopia could be achieved versus the opposite.
Say, a reverse hunger games. The top 10 wealthiest people fight/draw lots in order to keep their wealth and the losers get theirs redistributed. How would this be achieved? You'd need the rest of us to agree to process this and I don't think we would.
Capitalism has been bubble-sorting psychopaths to "the top" for so long now that I think they're untouchable.
posted by fullerine at 2:42 AM on May 22, 2016 [6 favorites]
Replacing the entire property rental industry with an app is likely to be as popular as Uber. You'll need to bid on a spread of properties in different locations to make this work for you I guess.
posted by Coda Tronca at 3:27 AM on May 22, 2016
posted by Coda Tronca at 3:27 AM on May 22, 2016
It probably won't be long until this hits London (either with Rentberry expanding here, or local players like Foxtons rolling out their own versions).
posted by acb at 3:39 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 3:39 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
Someone should create a companion app which connects bidders so they can agree amongst themselves to bid at the lowest amount possible and the winner "buys" the right to bid from the others.
posted by fullerine at 3:43 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
posted by fullerine at 3:43 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
it seems like everyone is assuming it will raise prices. is that correct? iiuc the general take from the economics theory side is that auctions tend to be more efficient. that doesn't necessarily mean that the seller makes more.
i guess you can argue that any change that is welcomed by sellers probably means a higher price. that seems reasonable. but i don't understand the general reaction that "auctions are bad mmmkay."
another reason they might be bad is if buyers have an advantage from incomplete information. is that the case?
posted by andrewcooke at 4:19 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
i guess you can argue that any change that is welcomed by sellers probably means a higher price. that seems reasonable. but i don't understand the general reaction that "auctions are bad mmmkay."
another reason they might be bad is if buyers have an advantage from incomplete information. is that the case?
posted by andrewcooke at 4:19 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
xdvesper: Picking a tenant based on the price they're willing to pay sounds a bit fairer than forcing everyone to offer the same price, then leaving the landlord to offer the unit based on race, gender, class or whatever unconscious bias they are operating on.
Except they can still discriminate with this system, in the same way people can with AirBNB. It's not an auction, it's a "quasi-auction":
"The information we provide will enable you to make an educated decision and choose the ideal tenant for your property."
So they can still choose "the white guy that offered the most" over a tenant of color offering even more. I'm not sure what kind of feedback they provide the bidders about who "out bid" them, but it could be even harder to prove discrimination with this system.
posted by bluecore at 4:26 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Except they can still discriminate with this system, in the same way people can with AirBNB. It's not an auction, it's a "quasi-auction":
"The information we provide will enable you to make an educated decision and choose the ideal tenant for your property."
So they can still choose "the white guy that offered the most" over a tenant of color offering even more. I'm not sure what kind of feedback they provide the bidders about who "out bid" them, but it could be even harder to prove discrimination with this system.
posted by bluecore at 4:26 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Is this not just how it works normally, but moving the middleman away from the estate agents? Certainly whenever I have tried to rent (in London) everything is offer based, either over or under.
And the discrimination is identical as well, sadly, but again, agent mediated. Assuming it is a silent auction, and not eBay, of course.
posted by fizban at 4:29 AM on May 22, 2016
And the discrimination is identical as well, sadly, but again, agent mediated. Assuming it is a silent auction, and not eBay, of course.
posted by fizban at 4:29 AM on May 22, 2016
Is this not just how it works normally, but moving the middleman away from the estate agents?
Pretty much, and as it's an app both sides of the deal should get a platform to rate the other side.
Letting agents are supposed to earn some of the their fee (and a lot of them take a fee from both sides) by ensuring that the tenant is of good character and can pay, so that's going to be an issue. But of course a lot of them don't do it properly. My dad's a landlord and just had to evict a guy who not only didn't pay but also filled the house with Nazi memorabilia. Dream tenant.
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:20 AM on May 22, 2016
Pretty much, and as it's an app both sides of the deal should get a platform to rate the other side.
Letting agents are supposed to earn some of the their fee (and a lot of them take a fee from both sides) by ensuring that the tenant is of good character and can pay, so that's going to be an issue. But of course a lot of them don't do it properly. My dad's a landlord and just had to evict a guy who not only didn't pay but also filled the house with Nazi memorabilia. Dream tenant.
posted by Coda Tronca at 5:20 AM on May 22, 2016
Who the hell came up with this? The rental app designers are too damn high.
posted by duffell at 5:46 AM on May 22, 2016 [7 favorites]
posted by duffell at 5:46 AM on May 22, 2016 [7 favorites]
Thank the NIMBYs for this wonderful addition to the entrepreneurial ecosystem. SF, along with other cities across the United States, is suffering from a lack of housing. People are moving to cities at an increasing rate, and there are few signs of that trend stopping anytime soon. If you don't build enough housing to accommodate a growing population, this is exactly the kind of shit that happens.
posted by antonymous at 7:05 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by antonymous at 7:05 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
And yet at least once a month I get an email from some tech company in the Bay Area trying to get me to apply for a job there with the presumption that I'd ever want to sell my $200K house in the rust belt and live in a glorified closet for $3000 a month in SF.
posted by octothorpe at 7:37 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by octothorpe at 7:37 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Even on the east coast, someone sends me a listing for a gig in the financial district, or anywhere in the city, that isn't 80+%WFH, I triple the number and ask them if that's what they meant...
posted by mikelieman at 7:48 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by mikelieman at 7:48 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
The rental app designers are too damn high.
They just did what the people signing their paychecks told them to... What they do out back by the dumpster is their own business...
posted by mikelieman at 7:49 AM on May 22, 2016
They just did what the people signing their paychecks told them to... What they do out back by the dumpster is their own business...
posted by mikelieman at 7:49 AM on May 22, 2016
This is a crime, right? This site exists to document criminals in the act of looting, yes?
please say yes
posted by eustatic at 8:00 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
please say yes
posted by eustatic at 8:00 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Andrewcookie: the auction system is bad because shelter is nessicary, housing is in short supply, and housing costs are are vastly outpacing wages. This means people who are average simply cannot outbid, and if they need to move and are currently a resident, they can't do it within the city. Many people are already priced out. An auction will just make it worse.
posted by AlexiaSky at 8:18 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
posted by AlexiaSky at 8:18 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
Even if available supply could potentially get high enough to meet demand to a degree that pushes down prices for everyday renters, profits would drop and construction would no longer get financing on as-profitable terms. Fewer new projects would begin, and supply would again be constrained until profits are back to the new-norm valuation.
If it's not as profitable, but it's still somewhat profitable, wouldn't there still be an incentive to develop? At least in theory, if current developers were holding out for the halcyon days, doesn't free market theory say that new developers would come in to grab the diminished profit?
posted by galaxy rise at 8:20 AM on May 22, 2016
If it's not as profitable, but it's still somewhat profitable, wouldn't there still be an incentive to develop? At least in theory, if current developers were holding out for the halcyon days, doesn't free market theory say that new developers would come in to grab the diminished profit?
posted by galaxy rise at 8:20 AM on May 22, 2016
Andrewcookie: the auction system is bad because shelter is nessicary, housing is in short supply, and housing costs are are vastly outpacing wages. This means people who are average simply cannot outbid, and if they need to move and are currently a resident, they can't do it within the city. Many people are already priced out. An auction will just make it worse.
it may be that currently sellers know they can get high prices, so they set prices high and then wait until someone rich enough comes along. with auctions they might be able to sell more quickly for the same price, which would mean less waiting and so higher occupancy rates. that would mean more people in housing.
in other words, there's a difference between isolating one case and saying "but the person with most money will end up buying it" and trying to work out what the entire market, on average, will do. still, auctions may drive up prices. i don't know. but i am not convinced that the knee-jerk reaction here is correct.
this thread reminds me of the threads we used to have saying how wonderful things were going to be in venezuela. sometimes well meaning but economically naive opinions are not correct...
posted by andrewcooke at 8:34 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
it may be that currently sellers know they can get high prices, so they set prices high and then wait until someone rich enough comes along. with auctions they might be able to sell more quickly for the same price, which would mean less waiting and so higher occupancy rates. that would mean more people in housing.
in other words, there's a difference between isolating one case and saying "but the person with most money will end up buying it" and trying to work out what the entire market, on average, will do. still, auctions may drive up prices. i don't know. but i am not convinced that the knee-jerk reaction here is correct.
this thread reminds me of the threads we used to have saying how wonderful things were going to be in venezuela. sometimes well meaning but economically naive opinions are not correct...
posted by andrewcooke at 8:34 AM on May 22, 2016 [9 favorites]
If it's not as profitable, but it's still somewhat profitable, wouldn't there still be an incentive to develop? At least in theory, if current developers were holding out for the halcyon days, doesn't free market theory say that new developers would come in to grab the diminished profit?
Have you ever tried to develop in San Francisco? The whole city is so utterly averse to medium and high density housing. In Manhattan you barely have townhouses because everything is a six floor apartment building. Noe Valley is like sardine suburbia inside what should have long been converted to medium density housing.
The whole process has been going on so long that you can't get a loan to buy the land required to make medium density housing for love or money. Regular housing is not even affordable as an investment to developers. Nobody will give you money for it. The only people that can get money are those making luxury apartments which just makes the problem worse.
In a social democracy the city would step in, develop a bunch of medium density housing and get it to the people that need it. But since we live in the United States™ and in particular, home of the NIMBY, we basically banish people to the furthest reaches of BART out in East Bay. Shitty areas of Oakland are in the process of being rapidly gentrified and are almost gone. They go further out but then become priced out of the market by the remnants of the middle class who now buy up Concord, Pittsburg, Antioch and Brentwood.
So the city is entirely fucked all round. I'm not sure where San Franciscans expect their baristas, servers, and cleaning people to live. Tracy?
posted by Talez at 8:44 AM on May 22, 2016 [6 favorites]
Have you ever tried to develop in San Francisco? The whole city is so utterly averse to medium and high density housing. In Manhattan you barely have townhouses because everything is a six floor apartment building. Noe Valley is like sardine suburbia inside what should have long been converted to medium density housing.
The whole process has been going on so long that you can't get a loan to buy the land required to make medium density housing for love or money. Regular housing is not even affordable as an investment to developers. Nobody will give you money for it. The only people that can get money are those making luxury apartments which just makes the problem worse.
In a social democracy the city would step in, develop a bunch of medium density housing and get it to the people that need it. But since we live in the United States™ and in particular, home of the NIMBY, we basically banish people to the furthest reaches of BART out in East Bay. Shitty areas of Oakland are in the process of being rapidly gentrified and are almost gone. They go further out but then become priced out of the market by the remnants of the middle class who now buy up Concord, Pittsburg, Antioch and Brentwood.
So the city is entirely fucked all round. I'm not sure where San Franciscans expect their baristas, servers, and cleaning people to live. Tracy?
posted by Talez at 8:44 AM on May 22, 2016 [6 favorites]
Baristas etc could be replaced by some sort of theme park workers who live in dorms. College students from Eastern Europe would probably take the job if it's important that they be white.
posted by thelonius at 8:58 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by thelonius at 8:58 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
InsertNiftyNameHere, I don't know what the housing situation is like in Oslo. But I can tell you that the housing market for Stockholm is nearly as fucked as the one in San Francisco. So I'm not convinced that the Nordic nations have solved this problem. Maybe it's only a problem in the big cities but it's a problem.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:30 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 9:30 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
In a social democracy the city would step in, develop a bunch of medium density housing and get it to the people that need it.
Yeah, this is what happened in the 60s when the redevelopment agency developed the Western Addition/Fillmore so efficiently that the "Harlem of the West Coast" got developed out of existence and "urban renewal" got the nickname "Negro removal."
posted by rtha at 9:35 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Yeah, this is what happened in the 60s when the redevelopment agency developed the Western Addition/Fillmore so efficiently that the "Harlem of the West Coast" got developed out of existence and "urban renewal" got the nickname "Negro removal."
posted by rtha at 9:35 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
All things are sold at auction. Some auctions are more efficient than others. Sellers use inefficient auctions for all kinds of reasons, and one should hesitate to jump to the conclusion that those reasons are bad. Profitability of rental housing is effected by many other factors beyond the rent that a potential tenant says he's willing to pay.
A useful auction for rental housing must take into account badly-behaving tenant risk. I'd design auction to weight the rent dollar bids by FICO, age, and nature of employment -- i.e., a 45 year old tax partner at a law firm with a 760 FICO can bid $4,500 a month and still beat the $5,200 a month bid of a 29 year old working at a startup with a 650 FICO. Get that weighting algorithm right and you've really got something.
posted by MattD at 10:06 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
A useful auction for rental housing must take into account badly-behaving tenant risk. I'd design auction to weight the rent dollar bids by FICO, age, and nature of employment -- i.e., a 45 year old tax partner at a law firm with a 760 FICO can bid $4,500 a month and still beat the $5,200 a month bid of a 29 year old working at a startup with a 650 FICO. Get that weighting algorithm right and you've really got something.
posted by MattD at 10:06 AM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
So the city is entirely fucked all round. I'm not sure where San Franciscans expect their baristas, servers, and cleaning people to live. Tracy?
I was talking to a cashier at my local liquor store here in the Inner Mission, and she literally does commute from Tracy! 45min-1hr drive to BART, then 45min-1hr ride to the City. Up to 4 hours commuting each day. To operate a cash register at a liquor store.
posted by trip and a half at 10:07 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
I was talking to a cashier at my local liquor store here in the Inner Mission, and she literally does commute from Tracy! 45min-1hr drive to BART, then 45min-1hr ride to the City. Up to 4 hours commuting each day. To operate a cash register at a liquor store.
posted by trip and a half at 10:07 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Get that weighting algorithm right and you've really got something.
Not for everyone who can't afford to participate.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:08 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
Not for everyone who can't afford to participate.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:08 AM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
Yeah, urban renewal was a disaster that no one should be trying to repeat, especially in the form of the Western Addition where it didn't even yield much net supply. I am a little bit more sympathetic to the Golden Gateway than I used to be, because they did get a lot of housing out of a little bit of industrial displacement.
I think the least disruptive thing that could be done to add housing supply would be to legalize one-lot-at-a-time replacement of owner-occupied single-family houses with small apartment buildings, as was starting to happen in the Sunset before the new zoning code in 1960 stopped it, but the neighbors of those houses are no more eager to have it happen now than they were in 1960.
posted by enf at 10:10 AM on May 22, 2016 [2 favorites]
I think the least disruptive thing that could be done to add housing supply would be to legalize one-lot-at-a-time replacement of owner-occupied single-family houses with small apartment buildings, as was starting to happen in the Sunset before the new zoning code in 1960 stopped it, but the neighbors of those houses are no more eager to have it happen now than they were in 1960.
posted by enf at 10:10 AM on May 22, 2016 [2 favorites]
I don't see this as an automatically terrible app, I have to say. In the affluent parts of London we still have a huge number of shopfronts that contain nothing other than a number of laminated cards showing photographs of flats to rent. The staff inside have no skills but the estate agent business creams off millions (like the infamous Foxton's). I'm not saying 'tech disruption is great' but the pot of cash this app is chasing doesn't seem to be that belonging to the tenant primarily.
it may be that currently sellers know they can get high prices, so they set prices high and then wait until someone rich enough comes along.
Lots of London landlords will put a sub-standard property on the market and then just wait for the price, because 'that's what this size property goes for in this area'. The auction system could see them more likely to let it go for less since they don't have to wait, or renovate it properly.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:12 AM on May 22, 2016
it may be that currently sellers know they can get high prices, so they set prices high and then wait until someone rich enough comes along.
Lots of London landlords will put a sub-standard property on the market and then just wait for the price, because 'that's what this size property goes for in this area'. The auction system could see them more likely to let it go for less since they don't have to wait, or renovate it properly.
posted by Coda Tronca at 10:12 AM on May 22, 2016
I was talking to a cashier at my local liquor store here in the Inner Mission, and she literally does commute from Tracy! 45min-1hr drive to BART, then 45min-1hr ride to the City. Up to 4 hours commuting each day. To operate a cash register at a liquor store.
The question you should ask is why anyone would do this.
posted by JackFlash at 10:33 AM on May 22, 2016 [2 favorites]
The question you should ask is why anyone would do this.
posted by JackFlash at 10:33 AM on May 22, 2016 [2 favorites]
Desperation?
posted by bradbane at 10:37 AM on May 22, 2016 [13 favorites]
posted by bradbane at 10:37 AM on May 22, 2016 [13 favorites]
Desperation for what. There are two things they need -- housing and a job. Why is one in Tracy and the other in San Francisco? Why not a job nearer Tracy or housing in a city with jobs that is not San Francisco? It's not like "all the programmer jobs are in San Francisco." All the cashier jobs are not in San Francisco.
posted by JackFlash at 10:46 AM on May 22, 2016
posted by JackFlash at 10:46 AM on May 22, 2016
The kind of person you can trust to run a liquor store cash register, who is WILLING to run a liquor store cash register, is very rare in SF. She's probably getting 36 hours a week at $16 an hour on a regular schedule, versus 30 hours a week at $10 an hour with a dynamic scheduling system in Tracy ... nearly double the income, more predictability, and more chance at overtime differential. Totally worth the combined pre- and post-tax cost of her commute.
posted by MattD at 10:52 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by MattD at 10:52 AM on May 22, 2016 [4 favorites]
Desperation for what. There are two things they need -- housing and a job. Why is one in Tracy and the other in San Francisco? Why not a job nearer Tracy or housing in a city with jobs that is not San Francisco? It's not like "all the programmer jobs are in San Francisco." All the cashier jobs are not in San Francisco.
The job in SF might be paying a couple more dollars per hour, offer benefits, or otherwise be more attractive than local jobs, perhaps? I wouldn't go for a two hour one-way commute, but right now I'm in the fortunate place to make that kind of statement. For a lot of people it's a reality. I know a few people with 1.5 hour one way commutes around here, and many more with one hour trips each way. Particularly for two earner families, and for people who have managed to claw their way into ownership but who couldn't afford to buy closer to work, long commutes are a reality for both low and high paid jobs.
posted by Dip Flash at 10:53 AM on May 22, 2016
The job in SF might be paying a couple more dollars per hour, offer benefits, or otherwise be more attractive than local jobs, perhaps? I wouldn't go for a two hour one-way commute, but right now I'm in the fortunate place to make that kind of statement. For a lot of people it's a reality. I know a few people with 1.5 hour one way commutes around here, and many more with one hour trips each way. Particularly for two earner families, and for people who have managed to claw their way into ownership but who couldn't afford to buy closer to work, long commutes are a reality for both low and high paid jobs.
posted by Dip Flash at 10:53 AM on May 22, 2016
All the cashier jobs are not in San Francisco.
If you're a cashier in San Francisco, the affordable housing is out in Tracy, especially if the cashier has a family and can't pour all of their income into a single bedroom in a shared house.
I would not doubt that the cashier is looking for jobs out in Tracy. Tracy's outlet mall has been something of a ghost town, with lots of vacant storefronts. San Francisco's April 2016 unemployment rate was 3%, while San Joaquin County's was 8%, and that is only because of commuting to places like Sac and SF, whereas nearby Merced County's unemployment rate was 11%.
posted by salvia at 11:38 AM on May 22, 2016 [10 favorites]
If you're a cashier in San Francisco, the affordable housing is out in Tracy, especially if the cashier has a family and can't pour all of their income into a single bedroom in a shared house.
I would not doubt that the cashier is looking for jobs out in Tracy. Tracy's outlet mall has been something of a ghost town, with lots of vacant storefronts. San Francisco's April 2016 unemployment rate was 3%, while San Joaquin County's was 8%, and that is only because of commuting to places like Sac and SF, whereas nearby Merced County's unemployment rate was 11%.
posted by salvia at 11:38 AM on May 22, 2016 [10 favorites]
All the cashier jobs are not in San Francisco.
This does not change the fact that someone has to run the cashiers in San Francisco, and those people cannot afford anything anywhere near the city. I've been to Tracy, there is not a whole lot there except cheap housing. There reason it is cheap is because it's a 45 minute drive to the nearest outer BART station.
I have a friend who's a phenomenal baker, he was hired at the kind of extremely hip 20-course communal meal restaurant that sells tickets once a month. Even with that sweet gig it was not possible for him to live in SF, and the trains don't run after midnight, which makes living anywhere in the east bay slightly hard for someone in food service who is up all night creating $400 tasting menus for the rich.
Last I heard he lost the subsidized-by-his-sympathetic-techie-roommates place he was renting and had quit the baking gig to sign up for a coding bootcamp.
And yet here we are with another app conceived by people who are like "how can I make this worse and get my slice of it".
posted by bradbane at 12:20 PM on May 22, 2016 [13 favorites]
This does not change the fact that someone has to run the cashiers in San Francisco, and those people cannot afford anything anywhere near the city. I've been to Tracy, there is not a whole lot there except cheap housing. There reason it is cheap is because it's a 45 minute drive to the nearest outer BART station.
I have a friend who's a phenomenal baker, he was hired at the kind of extremely hip 20-course communal meal restaurant that sells tickets once a month. Even with that sweet gig it was not possible for him to live in SF, and the trains don't run after midnight, which makes living anywhere in the east bay slightly hard for someone in food service who is up all night creating $400 tasting menus for the rich.
Last I heard he lost the subsidized-by-his-sympathetic-techie-roommates place he was renting and had quit the baking gig to sign up for a coding bootcamp.
And yet here we are with another app conceived by people who are like "how can I make this worse and get my slice of it".
posted by bradbane at 12:20 PM on May 22, 2016 [13 favorites]
Serious question: Why hasn't somebody just anchored an old cruise ship just off shore and turned the cabins into leased apartments?
posted by LastOfHisKind at 2:25 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by LastOfHisKind at 2:25 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
Because, as with everything else, it's not that simple. Houseboats are subject to regulation; every inch of the shoreline is owned/managed by someone; the Bay is a very, very busy place (so many ships! and ferries!); the ocean is also regulated (within whatever the limit of the United States is, and also by the state of California when it comes to shipping/fishing/other commercial activities) and also very rough much of the time and you don't want your tenants yakking all over the place - and neither do they.
posted by rtha at 2:43 PM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
posted by rtha at 2:43 PM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
Also enough of the "regulation" is not legitimate regulation, but rather weaponry created and abused by vested interests that benefit from the inadequacy of the status quo.
posted by -harlequin- at 3:04 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by -harlequin- at 3:04 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
On Friday I was on a corporate-leased coach going through the Mission Bay district on the way back to Ashby Bart station from the Cupertino-based company where I work, on contract, temporarily, via an agency which is my legal employer. I noticed that the houseboats that used to be there, back in the dark ages when dinosaurs roamed and I still lived in SF, are gone. Of course they are. Every work day I spend between 4 and 5 hours getting to and from work. And that's okay for now. I am supremely lucky to have a temporary gig with effective transportation (I don't own a car. Even if I wanted one, which I don't, I wouldn't be able to afford one). One of the bus drivers told me that he owns a house in Tracy because he can't afford a house in San Jose, where he works two jobs. One is driving school buses during the school year. The other is driving folks like me on a comfy corporate coach with a bathroom and free wifi 2 hours to the East Bay and then the same amount of time back plus travel time to his own home. I promise that a cashier in SF isn't commuting from Tracy because she is stupid and ignoring a better gig where she lives. People do the best they can. Which is not very good these days.
posted by Bella Donna at 3:08 PM on May 22, 2016 [15 favorites]
posted by Bella Donna at 3:08 PM on May 22, 2016 [15 favorites]
Why hasn't somebody just anchored an old cruise ship just off shore and turned the cabins into leased apartments?
The address cruisr.com is taken, so VC firms are not interested.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 3:26 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
The address cruisr.com is taken, so VC firms are not interested.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 3:26 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
The address cruisr.com is taken, so VC firms are not interested.
Are memories so short? This has been proposed as an actual thing by notable VCs, with bonus legal loopholes
posted by pwnguin at 4:36 PM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
Are memories so short? This has been proposed as an actual thing by notable VCs, with bonus legal loopholes
Friedman plans to start next year by launching a flotilla of offices off San Francisco's coast, with full-time floating settlements in seven years. Friedman and Thiel expect the "entrepreneurial zeal" of seasteading to prevail where other libertarian utopias have failed.And this was planned five years ago, when rents were only mostly insane.
posted by pwnguin at 4:36 PM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
I've known a few people who lived at the one of the marinas in San Diego. Cheeper than a house and it is yours.
posted by AlexiaSky at 5:37 PM on May 22, 2016
posted by AlexiaSky at 5:37 PM on May 22, 2016
All of the bay area marinas have years-long waiting lists for live-aboards.
posted by bradbane at 6:44 PM on May 22, 2016
posted by bradbane at 6:44 PM on May 22, 2016
My partner has a 1 hour commute each way, and we're renting. That could only get much higher if we ever wanted to buy a house somehow, which seems like the only way to protect yourself against steadily increasing rent. Uber is moving to Oakland, and this is all going to get much worse before it gets better.
posted by teponaztli at 7:15 PM on May 22, 2016
posted by teponaztli at 7:15 PM on May 22, 2016
So the city is entirely fucked all round. I'm not sure where San Franciscans expect their baristas, servers, and cleaning people to live. Tracy?
Automation. Libertarians can barely stop playing with themselves thinking about the millions of blue collar workers who are going to be replaced in the coming years.
posted by Beholder at 7:58 PM on May 22, 2016
Automation. Libertarians can barely stop playing with themselves thinking about the millions of blue collar workers who are going to be replaced in the coming years.
posted by Beholder at 7:58 PM on May 22, 2016
Desperation for what. There are two things they need -- housing and a job. Why is one in Tracy and the other in San Francisco? Why not a job nearer Tracy or housing in a city with jobs that is not San Francisco?
Other folks have addressed the "why a SF cashier job" issue, but regarding the housing issue, I'm so, so tired of the "the solution is for poor people to pull up stakes" trope. People have families, lives, communities. To say "they should just move" is absolutely heartless. Homo economicus is a concept, not a real thing. Dunno, maybe it takes being beaten up by life a bit to fully grasp that.
posted by Lyme Drop at 8:46 PM on May 22, 2016 [11 favorites]
Other folks have addressed the "why a SF cashier job" issue, but regarding the housing issue, I'm so, so tired of the "the solution is for poor people to pull up stakes" trope. People have families, lives, communities. To say "they should just move" is absolutely heartless. Homo economicus is a concept, not a real thing. Dunno, maybe it takes being beaten up by life a bit to fully grasp that.
posted by Lyme Drop at 8:46 PM on May 22, 2016 [11 favorites]
I am a supporter of the minimum wage hike but it seems to me that the rent situation illustrates why it will not make a huge difference in the long run. After a while, a probably very short while, rents will rise to meet that higher wage. Just look at colleges and universities in this country. Every time an increase in the amounts students can borrow is announced, tuitions immediately rise. We need regulation but it is near impossible to make that happen because even though shelter is a basic need, shelters are income generators.
I worked in property management in Seattle 20 some years ago when there was a big push for regulation of the market. The mayor at the time came up with a "compromise" asking landlords to voluntarily not raise rents. The rental industry ignored him. He was on a call-in show on public radio, I called in. I identified myself as working in property management and told him there was no way the people who owned the properties we managed would go for that. Why would they? Would you voluntarily take a lower percentage on interest on your bank account, etc. No you wouldn't, and my company would not even consider suggesting it to the owners. (Not really relevant, but he instantly tried to bully me into telling him my name and the name of my company, fucking republican asshole.)
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 9:39 PM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
I worked in property management in Seattle 20 some years ago when there was a big push for regulation of the market. The mayor at the time came up with a "compromise" asking landlords to voluntarily not raise rents. The rental industry ignored him. He was on a call-in show on public radio, I called in. I identified myself as working in property management and told him there was no way the people who owned the properties we managed would go for that. Why would they? Would you voluntarily take a lower percentage on interest on your bank account, etc. No you wouldn't, and my company would not even consider suggesting it to the owners. (Not really relevant, but he instantly tried to bully me into telling him my name and the name of my company, fucking republican asshole.)
posted by Belle O'Cosity at 9:39 PM on May 22, 2016 [3 favorites]
Uber is moving to Oakland, and this is all going to get much worse before it gets better.
If some enterprising VC type were to fund a startup that just like, I dunno. Bought whatever chunks of land and filled them with, whatever, shipping containers kitted out into great livable spaces, they would still make a metric shit-ton of money offering them at sensible rental rates. How does someone like whoever, Bill Gates, look at the monstrous shitholes they are creating and not root around under the sofa cushions for a spare billion to build affordable housing? How do they not have any conception that one day there isn't going to be anyone to serve lattes to your employees on their way to work, because they'll look at the distance involved and go fuck that? At the end of the day, someone has to buy your products and sooner or later it'll only be your own employees.
I mean I know why obviously but jfc.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:03 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
If some enterprising VC type were to fund a startup that just like, I dunno. Bought whatever chunks of land and filled them with, whatever, shipping containers kitted out into great livable spaces, they would still make a metric shit-ton of money offering them at sensible rental rates. How does someone like whoever, Bill Gates, look at the monstrous shitholes they are creating and not root around under the sofa cushions for a spare billion to build affordable housing? How do they not have any conception that one day there isn't going to be anyone to serve lattes to your employees on their way to work, because they'll look at the distance involved and go fuck that? At the end of the day, someone has to buy your products and sooner or later it'll only be your own employees.
I mean I know why obviously but jfc.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:03 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
If some enterprising VC type were to fund a startup that just like, I dunno. Bought whatever chunks of land and filled them with, whatever, shipping containers kitted out into great livable spaces, they would still make a metric shit-ton of money offering them at sensible rental rates.
What would this solve? Kitting out shipping containers (cutting in windows? installing electrical and plumbing?) won't be all that much cheaper than normal construction, if it is even to code (e.g., for minimum room sizes). And you still have most of the issues any construction has: land cost, zoning, planning approvals, parking regulations, etc. -- if you do it legally.
Of course, someone could do it illegally. I know of a property owner who actually tried this. Another neighbor called the whole thing in to code compliance, and it was shut down.
posted by salvia at 11:57 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
What would this solve? Kitting out shipping containers (cutting in windows? installing electrical and plumbing?) won't be all that much cheaper than normal construction, if it is even to code (e.g., for minimum room sizes). And you still have most of the issues any construction has: land cost, zoning, planning approvals, parking regulations, etc. -- if you do it legally.
Of course, someone could do it illegally. I know of a property owner who actually tried this. Another neighbor called the whole thing in to code compliance, and it was shut down.
posted by salvia at 11:57 PM on May 22, 2016 [1 favorite]
Would you voluntarily take a lower percentage on interest on your bank account, etc. No you wouldn't
America's social compact keeps evaporating. Hard to say where we end up 10-20 years from now — can't imagine it will be any easier for the next generation dealing with the effects of climate change: constrained food supplies, even more constrained living space, etc. We have potential leaders of the free world who either won't talk about their incomes or even their words in defense of finance marketeers who create and worsen the situation. It seems like madness, to me.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:01 AM on May 23, 2016 [2 favorites]
America's social compact keeps evaporating. Hard to say where we end up 10-20 years from now — can't imagine it will be any easier for the next generation dealing with the effects of climate change: constrained food supplies, even more constrained living space, etc. We have potential leaders of the free world who either won't talk about their incomes or even their words in defense of finance marketeers who create and worsen the situation. It seems like madness, to me.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 12:01 AM on May 23, 2016 [2 favorites]
Kitting out shipping containers (cutting in windows?
sorry I think I fell into a William Gibson novel somewhere
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 12:44 AM on May 23, 2016 [2 favorites]
sorry I think I fell into a William Gibson novel somewhere
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 12:44 AM on May 23, 2016 [2 favorites]
The letting agents do need to be reined in because they are turning from just a bit shit to actively evil
This is app is a good thing, basically.
posted by Coda Tronca at 2:15 AM on May 23, 2016
This is app is a good thing, basically.
posted by Coda Tronca at 2:15 AM on May 23, 2016
Other folks have addressed the "why a SF cashier job" issue, but regarding the housing issue, I'm so, so tired of the "the solution is for poor people to pull up stakes" trope. People have families, lives, communities. To say "they should just move" is absolutely heartless. Homo economicus is a concept, not a real thing. Dunno, maybe it takes being beaten up by life a bit to fully grasp that.
The more pernicious issue about moving for opportunity right now is that there is very little economic incentive for most people to move, because wages are low and costs are high. People aren't dumb, they can figure that out and assess the risks, so they are staying where they are. The result is that geographic mobility is way down; the solution is not to somehow push the idea of moving, but to create the kinds of opportunities where people who want to move will have a good economic incentive to do so.
If some enterprising VC type were to fund a startup that just like, I dunno. Bought whatever chunks of land and filled them with, whatever, shipping containers kitted out into great livable spaces, they would still make a metric shit-ton of money offering them at sensible rental rates.
As was noted above, the costs of the structures themselves isn't necessarily the biggest part (compared to land, etc), and shipping containers aren't going to be cheaper than other options once you do all the necessary work of turning them into housing. In most settings the cheapest form of housing is going to be apartment buildings that are low-rise (so no elevators or expensive structural issues) and where you can stuff a lot of units in each one. But US zoning in general, and in the Bay Area in particular, privileges single-family housing, which is less dense and more expensive per unit.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:05 AM on May 23, 2016 [2 favorites]
The more pernicious issue about moving for opportunity right now is that there is very little economic incentive for most people to move, because wages are low and costs are high. People aren't dumb, they can figure that out and assess the risks, so they are staying where they are. The result is that geographic mobility is way down; the solution is not to somehow push the idea of moving, but to create the kinds of opportunities where people who want to move will have a good economic incentive to do so.
If some enterprising VC type were to fund a startup that just like, I dunno. Bought whatever chunks of land and filled them with, whatever, shipping containers kitted out into great livable spaces, they would still make a metric shit-ton of money offering them at sensible rental rates.
As was noted above, the costs of the structures themselves isn't necessarily the biggest part (compared to land, etc), and shipping containers aren't going to be cheaper than other options once you do all the necessary work of turning them into housing. In most settings the cheapest form of housing is going to be apartment buildings that are low-rise (so no elevators or expensive structural issues) and where you can stuff a lot of units in each one. But US zoning in general, and in the Bay Area in particular, privileges single-family housing, which is less dense and more expensive per unit.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:05 AM on May 23, 2016 [2 favorites]
I envision that all middle class people will soon have to resort to "crash pad" living conditions like new and less experienced airline pilots have to deal with. We've become surplus and expendable, and there's nothing we can do about it except revert to tenement housing, if we're lucky enough to find it.
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 1:16 AM on May 24, 2016 [1 favorite]
posted by InsertNiftyNameHere at 1:16 AM on May 24, 2016 [1 favorite]
San Francisco Tried to Rent Out the Grass in a Public Park. It Did Not End Well.
posted by homunculus at 5:25 PM on May 29, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by homunculus at 5:25 PM on May 29, 2016 [2 favorites]
How do they not have any conception that one day there isn't going to be anyone to serve lattes to your employees on their way to work, because they'll look at the distance involved and go fuck that?
I think it's reasonable to assume that wages will either rise or shops will shut down for a lack of employees. I'm told the way NYC citizens handle minimum wage is by refusing offers of unlivable wages, and it seems reasonable. Certainly when I was a young'n in suburban KC, high school students were making more than minimum wage.
How does someone like whoever, Bill Gates, look at the monstrous shitholes they are creating and not root around under the sofa cushions for a spare billion to build affordable housing?
I don't think anyone can do that and have significant, positive measurable results. Google helped finance Franklin street apartments, with like 50 affordable units. Facebook is building their housing, with a total of 15 Facebook funded below market rate units.
These are nice token efforts, but doesn't really stem the tide. If single family housing units cost a million to produce, it may well take an actual literal billion to house a mere couple thousand low income families, and given howanti-poor anti-density towns are, it's not only a financing problem, but a political one. There was a large uproar last year when someone pointed out that suburbs had approved lots of new office space but no or few residential construction permits. As Facebook and Google discovered, it's difficult to get new units for wealthy employees approved, let alone a project dedicated to low-income housing.
Philanthropists also need to look at secondary effects: if by doing this, are they going to discourage the formation of public sector Housing Authorities, or discourage employers from raising wages? Are municipality services prepared to deal with a 10 percent increase in population more or less over night? Are they prepared for a major change in demographics?
posted by pwnguin at 10:33 PM on May 29, 2016
I think it's reasonable to assume that wages will either rise or shops will shut down for a lack of employees. I'm told the way NYC citizens handle minimum wage is by refusing offers of unlivable wages, and it seems reasonable. Certainly when I was a young'n in suburban KC, high school students were making more than minimum wage.
How does someone like whoever, Bill Gates, look at the monstrous shitholes they are creating and not root around under the sofa cushions for a spare billion to build affordable housing?
I don't think anyone can do that and have significant, positive measurable results. Google helped finance Franklin street apartments, with like 50 affordable units. Facebook is building their housing, with a total of 15 Facebook funded below market rate units.
These are nice token efforts, but doesn't really stem the tide. If single family housing units cost a million to produce, it may well take an actual literal billion to house a mere couple thousand low income families, and given how
Philanthropists also need to look at secondary effects: if by doing this, are they going to discourage the formation of public sector Housing Authorities, or discourage employers from raising wages? Are municipality services prepared to deal with a 10 percent increase in population more or less over night? Are they prepared for a major change in demographics?
posted by pwnguin at 10:33 PM on May 29, 2016
If single family housing units cost a million to produce
Where did that number come from?
posted by salvia at 5:30 PM on May 30, 2016
Where did that number come from?
posted by salvia at 5:30 PM on May 30, 2016
Median home value in Mountain Bay: $1,454,400. Presumably most of that is land value, rather than the cost of construction.
posted by pwnguin at 11:44 PM on May 30, 2016
posted by pwnguin at 11:44 PM on May 30, 2016
Right, I don't think construction costs are a million dollars per housing unit, especially if the politics you point to can shift enough to allow more higher density product (like the St. Anton project linked in your last comment).
posted by salvia at 7:04 AM on May 31, 2016
posted by salvia at 7:04 AM on May 31, 2016
In the St. Anton development article, at the bottom are some relevant facts: the cost is $120 million and the total units is 396 units. You're looking at about 300k per unit, and when scaled up to a billion you get 3000 units housed, which I think qualifies as "a couple thousand" units.
IMO, the chief problem is an irreconcilable conflict between the low income families that need lower rents, and the middle class families who have significant fractions of wealth tied up in home prices. Because home prices reflect in large part local market rent rates, these two desires are in direct opposition.
posted by pwnguin at 9:18 AM on May 31, 2016
IMO, the chief problem is an irreconcilable conflict between the low income families that need lower rents, and the middle class families who have significant fractions of wealth tied up in home prices. Because home prices reflect in large part local market rent rates, these two desires are in direct opposition.
posted by pwnguin at 9:18 AM on May 31, 2016
San Francisco Finds Giving The Homeless Supportive Housing Costs Less Than Doing Nothing
posted by homunculus at 4:38 PM on June 1, 2016 [4 favorites]
posted by homunculus at 4:38 PM on June 1, 2016 [4 favorites]
NO DUH
posted by rtha at 9:10 PM on June 1, 2016 [2 favorites]
posted by rtha at 9:10 PM on June 1, 2016 [2 favorites]
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posted by Dip Flash at 6:28 PM on May 21, 2016 [8 favorites]