Macedonia moves north, kind of
June 14, 2018 11:02 AM Subscribe
Say hello to the newest country (name) in the world: the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has reached an agreement with Greece (which has a province named Macedonia and wasn't cool with FYROM claiming the name) to become the Republic of North Macedonia (Република Северна Македонија).
Well that was a quick twist and turn.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:15 AM on June 14, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 11:15 AM on June 14, 2018 [6 favorites]
Eponysterical.
posted by kevinbelt at 11:21 AM on June 14, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by kevinbelt at 11:21 AM on June 14, 2018 [3 favorites]
Yes it's still up in the air, but it looks that it will eventually pass from both sides. Let's hope the nationalists on either side don't blow this up. Note that both nationalist rhetorics claim capitulation of their government to the other side.
Personally I was Ok with Republic of Macedonia, since forever, but I was decidedly in the minority. The whole issue was surreal and was used for the rehabilitation of the Greek far-right in the 90s. The seeds of the Golden Dawn Nazis were sown in the demonstrations to "protect our name" of the early 90s. In the Republic of Northern Macedonia similarly it paved the way to a very nationalist, authoritarian and corrupt regime...
posted by talos at 11:24 AM on June 14, 2018 [4 favorites]
Personally I was Ok with Republic of Macedonia, since forever, but I was decidedly in the minority. The whole issue was surreal and was used for the rehabilitation of the Greek far-right in the 90s. The seeds of the Golden Dawn Nazis were sown in the demonstrations to "protect our name" of the early 90s. In the Republic of Northern Macedonia similarly it paved the way to a very nationalist, authoritarian and corrupt regime...
posted by talos at 11:24 AM on June 14, 2018 [4 favorites]
> Yes it's still up in the air, but it looks that it will eventually pass from both sides.
Why do you say that? I think a reasonable person would bet heavily that nationalists will blow this up. I've spent time in Greece and lived for years in a heavily Greek neighborhood of NYC, and I've never met a single Greek who had a shred of rationality on this topic (I'm not saying they don't exist—talos is obviously an exception—but yeah, decidedly in the minority). I can't claim similar familiarity with Macedonians, but I don't imagine they're much more sensible about it on average. I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that if democratic voting is involved, this agreement is doomed. What's in a name? OUR ENTIRE HISTORY AND SENSE OF SELF!!
posted by languagehat at 11:55 AM on June 14, 2018 [7 favorites]
Why do you say that? I think a reasonable person would bet heavily that nationalists will blow this up. I've spent time in Greece and lived for years in a heavily Greek neighborhood of NYC, and I've never met a single Greek who had a shred of rationality on this topic (I'm not saying they don't exist—talos is obviously an exception—but yeah, decidedly in the minority). I can't claim similar familiarity with Macedonians, but I don't imagine they're much more sensible about it on average. I hope I'm wrong, but it seems to me that if democratic voting is involved, this agreement is doomed. What's in a name? OUR ENTIRE HISTORY AND SENSE OF SELF!!
posted by languagehat at 11:55 AM on June 14, 2018 [7 favorites]
I think it's an excellent, doomed idea. It's a very good compromise, with no claim on being the whole of "Macedonia" but the northern region, which it..... totally is, so of course between the wackos that wield a lot of power in both FYROM and Greece it'll get shitcanned.
posted by tclark at 12:06 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by tclark at 12:06 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think it's time to admit that the whole 'nation state' idea was cute, at least a handful of cool looking flags came out of it, but that its time is mostly definitely run out, it's outlived any sort of usefulness and is now just a source of bad juju.
posted by signal at 12:10 PM on June 14, 2018 [18 favorites]
posted by signal at 12:10 PM on June 14, 2018 [18 favorites]
Why do you say that? I think a reasonable person would bet heavily that nationalists will blow this up.
FWIW, I have a bet going for a bottle of whisky that says the Greek government votes for this en bloc. The vote of no confidence is exactly the fig leaf the minority government party needs to vote for this.
posted by each day we work at 1:28 PM on June 14, 2018
FWIW, I have a bet going for a bottle of whisky that says the Greek government votes for this en bloc. The vote of no confidence is exactly the fig leaf the minority government party needs to vote for this.
posted by each day we work at 1:28 PM on June 14, 2018
It'd be great simply for the cartographical novelty of having a sovereign nation-state named "North Macedonia" without an equivalent southern counterpart. I can't think of any other examples. At least South Africa has the Central African Republic.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:31 PM on June 14, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Apocryphon at 2:31 PM on June 14, 2018 [4 favorites]
In German, there's Österreich. (The Eastern Reich, aka Austria)
posted by Hatashran at 3:00 PM on June 14, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Hatashran at 3:00 PM on June 14, 2018 [5 favorites]
Going through the wikipedia list of sovereign states, there's also South Sudan and East Timor (and Northern Cyprus and South Ossetia may also count depending on your idea of sovereign nation-state).
posted by each day we work at 3:14 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by each day we work at 3:14 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
East Jesus Kentucky has no western counterpart.
Hush you, it exists in the vernacular of Southern Illinois.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:56 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
Hush you, it exists in the vernacular of Southern Illinois.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:56 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
> Why do you say that? I think a reasonable person would bet heavily that nationalists will blow this up
Here's what's I think is going to happen: In Greece, the no-confidence vote will fail. The co-governing Independent Greeks Party (Right Wing Nationalist, uncompromisingly irrational on the name issue) will vote against the deal when it comes to parliament, but this won't happen until later this year if everything goes according to plan. Their leader, Panos Kammenos, has repeatedly and emphatically stated that they will not bring down the government under any circumstances, no matter the differences of opinion on the Macedonian question. On the contrary, it is likely that the opposition might have leaks on this vote, both the "center-left" (in reality the "center right") and even the ND conservatives, due to the fact that over the past 20 years their leadership claimed to want exactly the kind of solution that is now being achieved. There are two former ("socialist") Prime Ministers and quite a few MPs who openly support the deal. So as far as the parliament goes, I would be amazed if anything came out of the no-confidence motion, and later this year SYRIZA will not need the Ind.Greeks vote, since a social-liberal party and individual MPs that will vote for the agreement will clinch a majority. Note that the resolution of the Macedonian issue is something that makes the core of SYRIZA voters very happy, as it derives from the party's fundamentally anti-nationalist sensitivities.
As far as the street protests are concerned, 2018 is not 1990, the country is starting to believe that it is in the process of recovering from a EU-inflicted 9-year depression and the passions and the energy of the anti-austerity movement have subsided after society was defeated by the EU bureaucracy. The "Macedonian" demos earlier this year were large but nowhere close to the size of the rallies of the 90s, and a larger than ever part of the population is starting to realise that some deal and concessions are inescapable. 57% of those questioned in a recent poll stated that they would accept a name that contained the word Macedonia. This is the first time I remember such a question having a positve response in opinion polls.
Having said that, ND is shifting to the ultra-nationalist far-right and seems to want to fan the flames of discontent of the most traditionalist and xenophobic parts of the population. This combined with the austerity disaster we've been through and contiinue to suffer is a very dangerous combination and Macedonia could be the issue that drives up the far-right agenda across the board.
In (Northern?) Macedonia, about the politics of which I am less confident of my knowledge, AFAIK the President has asked parliament to vote again on the issue but cannot insist on his veto if the parliament confirms support of the deal a second time (which seems the likeliest scenario). There might be a political crisis, but again public perceptions after the unpleasentness of the Gruevski years have shifted in the country, and the promise of NATO (very likely) and EU membership (very unlikely to materialize) once the Name issue is resolved is a very important motivation for the people of the country to accept the deal (which to be honest asks far more of the citizens of Northern Macedonia than from Greeks). So when this goes to a referendum, given also the strength of the ethnic Albanian parties in the FYROM which support the deal, it is likely that it will pass.
So that's why my bet is that by the end of the year the deal will have passed on both sides.
posted by talos at 4:00 PM on June 14, 2018 [7 favorites]
Here's what's I think is going to happen: In Greece, the no-confidence vote will fail. The co-governing Independent Greeks Party (Right Wing Nationalist, uncompromisingly irrational on the name issue) will vote against the deal when it comes to parliament, but this won't happen until later this year if everything goes according to plan. Their leader, Panos Kammenos, has repeatedly and emphatically stated that they will not bring down the government under any circumstances, no matter the differences of opinion on the Macedonian question. On the contrary, it is likely that the opposition might have leaks on this vote, both the "center-left" (in reality the "center right") and even the ND conservatives, due to the fact that over the past 20 years their leadership claimed to want exactly the kind of solution that is now being achieved. There are two former ("socialist") Prime Ministers and quite a few MPs who openly support the deal. So as far as the parliament goes, I would be amazed if anything came out of the no-confidence motion, and later this year SYRIZA will not need the Ind.Greeks vote, since a social-liberal party and individual MPs that will vote for the agreement will clinch a majority. Note that the resolution of the Macedonian issue is something that makes the core of SYRIZA voters very happy, as it derives from the party's fundamentally anti-nationalist sensitivities.
As far as the street protests are concerned, 2018 is not 1990, the country is starting to believe that it is in the process of recovering from a EU-inflicted 9-year depression and the passions and the energy of the anti-austerity movement have subsided after society was defeated by the EU bureaucracy. The "Macedonian" demos earlier this year were large but nowhere close to the size of the rallies of the 90s, and a larger than ever part of the population is starting to realise that some deal and concessions are inescapable. 57% of those questioned in a recent poll stated that they would accept a name that contained the word Macedonia. This is the first time I remember such a question having a positve response in opinion polls.
Having said that, ND is shifting to the ultra-nationalist far-right and seems to want to fan the flames of discontent of the most traditionalist and xenophobic parts of the population. This combined with the austerity disaster we've been through and contiinue to suffer is a very dangerous combination and Macedonia could be the issue that drives up the far-right agenda across the board.
In (Northern?) Macedonia, about the politics of which I am less confident of my knowledge, AFAIK the President has asked parliament to vote again on the issue but cannot insist on his veto if the parliament confirms support of the deal a second time (which seems the likeliest scenario). There might be a political crisis, but again public perceptions after the unpleasentness of the Gruevski years have shifted in the country, and the promise of NATO (very likely) and EU membership (very unlikely to materialize) once the Name issue is resolved is a very important motivation for the people of the country to accept the deal (which to be honest asks far more of the citizens of Northern Macedonia than from Greeks). So when this goes to a referendum, given also the strength of the ethnic Albanian parties in the FYROM which support the deal, it is likely that it will pass.
So that's why my bet is that by the end of the year the deal will have passed on both sides.
posted by talos at 4:00 PM on June 14, 2018 [7 favorites]
As for the Greeks of NYC: Note that both diasporas (GRE and MKD) and especially most of the official diasporic organizations are as extreme as the most extremist locals on "national" issues. They'd eagerly start a war if it was up to them
posted by talos at 4:19 PM on June 14, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by talos at 4:19 PM on June 14, 2018 [2 favorites]
South Sudan has Sudan and Northern Cyprus has Cyprus, but both of those cases are similar enough to qualify for this novelty.
posted by Apocryphon at 6:01 PM on June 14, 2018
posted by Apocryphon at 6:01 PM on June 14, 2018
I think all the Macedonias can be called "Bulgaria"
posted by knoyers at 7:26 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by knoyers at 7:26 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
how about “This Ain’t Macedonia”?
posted by vogon_poet at 7:28 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by vogon_poet at 7:28 PM on June 14, 2018 [1 favorite]
I programmed a popular CD-ROM atlas in the 90s. We got a lot of shit over what we did and didn’t label as Macedonia from very few users with very strong political opinions about it. Similarly Tibet, Kashmir, Congo and Yemen were problematic.
We got banned in China because of how we labeled Tibet.
Kashmir pisses off India and Pakistan if you label it as an independent country, which we did.
The statistics database we licensed had some weird data due to countries changing names, splitting and merging, which confused their collection process.
Congo is two countries which change their names a lot, sometimes both being called Congo at once, if I recall correctly.
Yemen is either two or one countries depending on what’s going on this week. You’d plot a graph of the population of Yemen and it would double one year and halve the next.
It was a constant search to find the bad data and correct it.
I’ve never enjoyed working on anything else as much., though. Lots of interesting problems and wonderful people to solve them with. Also so accidentally educational for all of us.
posted by w0mbat at 7:32 PM on June 14, 2018 [8 favorites]
We got banned in China because of how we labeled Tibet.
Kashmir pisses off India and Pakistan if you label it as an independent country, which we did.
The statistics database we licensed had some weird data due to countries changing names, splitting and merging, which confused their collection process.
Congo is two countries which change their names a lot, sometimes both being called Congo at once, if I recall correctly.
Yemen is either two or one countries depending on what’s going on this week. You’d plot a graph of the population of Yemen and it would double one year and halve the next.
It was a constant search to find the bad data and correct it.
I’ve never enjoyed working on anything else as much., though. Lots of interesting problems and wonderful people to solve them with. Also so accidentally educational for all of us.
posted by w0mbat at 7:32 PM on June 14, 2018 [8 favorites]
I think all the Macedonias can be called "Bulgaria"
Welcome to the Balkans! You're going to have a lot of fun here!
posted by each day we work at 11:13 PM on June 14, 2018 [3 favorites]
Welcome to the Balkans! You're going to have a lot of fun here!
posted by each day we work at 11:13 PM on June 14, 2018 [3 favorites]
> So that's why my bet is that by the end of the year the deal will have passed on both sides.
I sure hope you're right and I'm wrong! And of course that's true about the community in NYC; it's interesting how rabid about home-country politics émigré communities tend to be in general.
posted by languagehat at 7:01 AM on June 15, 2018 [1 favorite]
I sure hope you're right and I'm wrong! And of course that's true about the community in NYC; it's interesting how rabid about home-country politics émigré communities tend to be in general.
posted by languagehat at 7:01 AM on June 15, 2018 [1 favorite]
I think all the Macedonias can be called "Bulgaria".
All Bulgarians: *vigorously nod heads*
posted by y2karl at 9:04 AM on June 15, 2018 [2 favorites]
All Bulgarians: *vigorously nod heads*
posted by y2karl at 9:04 AM on June 15, 2018 [2 favorites]
Things are going as expected. The Greek government survived the no-confidence vote. The nationalist demonstrations in Athens were at most 5000 people (which I reckon is a tenth of what the conservatives hoped for).
On the Nazi clown side: A Golden Dawn (Nazi) MP in his parliamentary speech on the motion, called for a military coup and the beheading of the PM, the Foreign Minister and the President for betraying Macedonia and the nation, was then kicked out of parliament, the whole GD parliamentary group was banned for the session, and the public prosecutor ordered his arrest and a probe on treason charges. He then escaped to his electoral district in his official car, and avoided arrest after a high speed chase (180 - 210 km/h in the rain and on provincial roads) and after he avoided a couple of roadblocks in the mountains. He is still at large. The Nazis were forced to expel him from the party because a charge like that would taint the party legally and have very serious repercussions on the ongoing trial against them.
posted by talos at 4:38 PM on June 16, 2018 [3 favorites]
On the Nazi clown side: A Golden Dawn (Nazi) MP in his parliamentary speech on the motion, called for a military coup and the beheading of the PM, the Foreign Minister and the President for betraying Macedonia and the nation, was then kicked out of parliament, the whole GD parliamentary group was banned for the session, and the public prosecutor ordered his arrest and a probe on treason charges. He then escaped to his electoral district in his official car, and avoided arrest after a high speed chase (180 - 210 km/h in the rain and on provincial roads) and after he avoided a couple of roadblocks in the mountains. He is still at large. The Nazis were forced to expel him from the party because a charge like that would taint the party legally and have very serious repercussions on the ongoing trial against them.
posted by talos at 4:38 PM on June 16, 2018 [3 favorites]
Thank you for your contributions talos, they're good for me and good for the blue. I hope you continue updating this thread with any news that crosses your desk.
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 10:28 PM on June 17, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 10:28 PM on June 17, 2018 [1 favorite]
Forced to expel him but not before clapping after his speech. Said MP got arrested close to his partner's house.
I also doubt the agreement won't voted in either parliament. The biggest stumbling block is the referendum, which apparently people up north think is 50 - 50. The opposition is unsure whether to call for a boycott (to push participation under 50%) or to ask its supporters to vote.
Anyway, Macedonia is a big region with varied history that has been the home of many peoples and it would be nice if both countries could end this dispute in a mutually acceptable manner.
posted by ersatz at 2:34 AM on June 18, 2018 [1 favorite]
I also doubt the agreement won't voted in either parliament. The biggest stumbling block is the referendum, which apparently people up north think is 50 - 50. The opposition is unsure whether to call for a boycott (to push participation under 50%) or to ask its supporters to vote.
Anyway, Macedonia is a big region with varied history that has been the home of many peoples and it would be nice if both countries could end this dispute in a mutually acceptable manner.
posted by ersatz at 2:34 AM on June 18, 2018 [1 favorite]
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posted by the man of twists and turns at 11:09 AM on June 14, 2018 [4 favorites]