You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. -Wayne Gretzky, Michael Scott

June 5, 2020 2:53 PM

Ready or Not, Here Comes the NBA [The Ringer] “On one side is law enforcement, some with badges covered and weapons raised—the face of a system of oppression. On the other is the looming threat of the coronavirus, which has now killed more than 100,000 Americans. Our present moment is trapped in that tension. All the while, the NBA’s board of governors is planning a trip to Disney World. Topics of the day include a play-in tournament for the eighth seed, resort assignments, and whether players and coaches will be allowed to golf. [...] On Thursday, the league approved a plan for 22 teams to resume the season in Orlando on July 31, and picking up with eight regular-season games before the commencement of a full-fledged playoff.”

• What we know and don't know about the NBA's return to play [ESPN]

OK, the NBA has a return-to-play plan in place. What's next?

Teams will continue to hold individual workouts in their facilities. A training camp will start June 30 and last a week. All teams will fly to Orlando on July 7, three weeks before the restart of the season. They will likely have to quarantine for some period; Florida law requires people flying in from some states, including New York, to quarantine for 14 days. There are plans to play some exhibition games, which might end up as scrimmages, among teams before the games begin. That is still in the planning stages.

Have the players signed off on the plan?

The union representatives from all 22 teams will meet Friday to vote on the proposal. Their approval is all but a formality, as NBA commissioner Adam Silver has kept the players involved from the beginning.

Why did the NBA settle on 22 teams?

If the league restarted with only 16 teams, it would have been among the safest and quickest ways to return to basketball and declare a 2020 champion. But those weren't the only factors. The total of 22 -- the 16 teams in playoff position plus those within six games of each No. 8 seed -- allows teams to ramp up with regular-season games before the playoffs. The league used the historical context of late-season playoff runs as a guide for how many teams to include. That said, it was a largely invented metric. The primary reason is money. If the remaining 259 regular-season games had been canceled, the players were facing $645 million in lost salary. Adding 88 games back into the schedule reduces the collective salary loss by $300 million.

• Inside the questions surrounding life in NBA’s return-to-play bubble [Sportsnet]

“The league is hoping exhaustive testing protocols — daily for those in the bubble — will serve as an early warning and detection system. But sports have proven notoriously poor at testing in the past. Does anyone really trust the NHL’s concussion protocols being properly executed in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final? And it’s not like performance-enhancing drugs are a thing of the past anywhere big money and sport intersect. Human nature is a powerful force and the reality is that almost everyone involved has a stake in the return-to-play plans unfolding without a hitch. Ideally that will translate into everyone modifying behaviour accordingly and being honest about symptoms and everything else. Who can be trusted to test properly? Team medical staff? League medical staff? Opposing team medical staff? “Everyone in the whole circle of care here has potentially perverse incentives when one or two tests could bring down everything,” says Morris. Even without those factors, testing is potentially complicated. The NBA has to navigate the near certainty of wonky test results. Testing for COVID-19 only works about 75 per cent of the time, meaning out of 100 people with the virus, 25 per cent will get missed. There is also the possibility of false positives, where about one per cent of those tested end up positives, throwing another wrench into things. So yes, the NBA is back. There is plenty of reason for excitement. But it’s probably worth keeping the jets cooled a little bit.”

• NBA set to resume in late July, playing games in Florida months after shutdown [The Washington Post][$]

“By taking a deliberate approach initially in response to the coronavirus, the NBA was able to monitor the returns of overseas sports leagues and wait for local jurisdictions to loosen restrictions that enabled teams to reopen their practice facilities. But with the need for multiple weeks to prepare teams to play games and the summer calendar beginning to slip away, the NBA had to make a decision. Any additional delay risked further compromising the 2020-21 season. “Although we all know that there are much more meaningful and important issues for our country to focus on at this time, we are extremely grateful for the opportunity to play basketball again,” Wizards General Manager Tommy Sheppard said in a statement. “There is still much work to be done, but we are excited to be able to return.” At least 10 players, including Nets star Kevin Durant, and New York Knicks owner James Dolan tested positive for the coronavirus. The NBA, which provided extensive instructions to teams on how to safely reopen their practice facilities, has yet to reveal the details of its health protocols for the resumed season. In a statement Thursday, the league said it was “working with infectious disease specialists, public health experts and government officials to establish a rigorous program to prevent and mitigate the risk related to COVID-19, including a regular testing protocol and stringent safety practices.” Multiple people with knowledge of the situation expect those guidelines to be revealed in the near future, though players have been left with the impression that a positive test would require a player to self-isolate while play continued without him.”

• N.B.A. Owners Set a July 31 Restart, All in Florida [The New York Times][$]

“To earn one of the 22 invitations to Disney World, teams had to be within six games of a playoff berth as of March 11, when the N.B.A. abruptly suspended the season in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Joining the 16 teams that occupied playoff spots on March 11 are five teams from the West (Portland, New Orleans, Sacramento, San Antonio and Phoenix) and Washington from the East. The season is thus over for Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Golden State, Minnesota and the Knicks — teams that may wind up enduring a nearly nine-month wait for their next competitive game. The N.B.A. revealed Thursday that it was considering opening the 2020-21 season on Dec. 1 rather than its usual start in October. After it ruled out inviting all 30 teams, the N.B.A. settled on 22 to build a competitive field while also reducing the number of people entering its planned safety bubble in Florida. The league spent much of May looking for a compromise ranging from 20 to 24 teams after deciding that proceeding straight into the playoffs with a 16-team field was not only unfair to the handful of teams within close range of a playoff berth when play was suspended, but that it was also potentially damaging to the overall quality of play. The league arrived at 22 teams last week for competitive and, of course, financial reasons. Having that many teams participate would enable the N.B.A. to stage what it has called 88 “seeding games” without fans — eight for each team — and up to four playoff play-in games before the postseason. The games would help several teams satisfy their local television contracts and thus lessen some of the revenue losses incurred leaguewide this season.”

posted by Fizz (24 comments total)

THEY”RE GOING TO DISNEY WORLD!!!1!!1!!!
posted by Huffy Puffy at 2:55 PM on June 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Also, fantasy baseball might be the only kind of baseball we get this year.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 2:57 PM on June 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

And more aligned with the Mr. Gretsky reference: NHL Playoff plans.

Let's go Blues!
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:26 PM on June 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

July is far enough away that there's hope that more places would have sorted themselves out by then and even if the rest of the country still has it pretty bad Disney and the NBA can make sure their bubble is safe. Disney gets to rent out a theme park that's empty otherwise. ABC (also Disney) gets to broadcast games and stay relevant. The NBA gets to avoid defaulting on a bunch of contracts and the players get paid something. Sounds like its good for everyone.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:46 PM on June 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

That’s supposed to be about hockey pucks, not vaccines.
posted by mhoye at 3:48 PM on June 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Sport is starting up too fast, globally. There's some big egos and even bigger bank accounts in play here, so why expect an industry that's never properly managed the health risk to the people on the front line to suddenly start now? It's like they're rolling the dice and will only avoid disaster on double sixes.
posted by krisjohn at 4:04 PM on June 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

I feel like between Memorial Day, protests, and this kind of thing, we're going to watch a lot of people fall.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:19 PM on June 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

The NHL and NBA are interesting comparisons, since they have similar league structures, and similar playoffs in normal years - an eastern and western conference with 8 teams in each and best-of-seven series. (To be fair, the NHL does a little more with divisions than the NBA.) They have the same fundamental concerns about returning to play -- besides the obvious safety and logistics ones. Teams will be rusty after not playing for months, so they want to play a few games before the playoffs. Teams on the edge of the playoffs think they could possibly have made it with a few more wins in the cancelled games, so expanding the group gives them solace. Meanwhile the teams that are wildly out of contention don't want to risk their health travelling somewhere for a month just to lose four meaningless games to some juggernaut.

The NHL is doing two isolation cities (instead of just Disney World), one for each conference; the top 12 teams in each conference will play. After potentially an exhibition game or two, the teams ranked 5-12 have a best-of-five entry round, 5 plays 12, 6 plays 11 and so on. The winners of this round enter the main playoff. Meanwhile the top four teams are playing a round robin to determine seeding. (This conveniently also means that New York has another team in the 'playoffs', as well as hockey hotbed Montreal and league darling Chicago.)

The big difference between the leagues is that basketball inherently (and the NBA specifically) are much more deterministic than hockey (and the NHL). In the past nine seasons (since LeBron went to Miami), the NBA conference finals have been the 1 seed vs the 2 seed 11 out of 18 matchups. Only two of the 18 teams in the NBA finals over this time period are not 1 or 2 seeds; the '18 Cavs and the '11 Mavs. And only one of the 36 teams in the conference finals wasn't a top four seed, the Grizzlies in 2013. The NBA could have only 8 teams come back and there's about a 99% chance the winner is the same.

Meanwhile, the NHL playoffs are wildly random; in that same time frame there's only been one 1 vs 2 matchup; the #1 team in a conference has only won the Stanley Cup once - the same number of times as the #8 team. The most likely position is actually #4, who have won three Cups -- and the #3 teams have not won any in the same time period. Fully a third of the teams in the final four were from the #5 to #8 positions in their conferences.

So for the NHL to produce a champion in a consistent manner, they more obviously need a lot of teams. The NBA doesn't, but of course they will bring in these extra teams and play 8(!) more regular season games because they want the TV revenue. The NBA champion will almost certainly be the Clippers, Lakers, Raptors or Bucks; the NHL champion could be basically any of the 24 teams.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 4:29 PM on June 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

And just to be clear, at least for the NHL, they're playing in empty rinks.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 4:34 PM on June 5, 2020

This season is going to short circuit just like the last one the moment they have an outbreak. The testing problem of false negatives and unconfirmed test accuracy on asymptomatic cases pretty much assures it will happen. They couldn't protect the white house with all the resources in the country. I seriously doubt they can protect the entire staff of 22 teams, officials, broadcast teams, maintenance and others involved no matter how competent the NBA is.
posted by srboisvert at 4:38 PM on June 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

I look forward to Kareem-Abdul Jabbar’s column on this in Jacobin.

(I kid, but MY DAD asked me about KAJ’s writing this week and I was like, “Dude! He’s the man!” and other things I probably also said when I was ten about KAJ)
posted by mwhybark at 5:16 PM on June 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

As a pro sports hater (amateur sports are great, monetizing it not so much), one of my joys during the pandemic has been going to ESPN and seeing page after page of garbage stories pining WHEN WILL WE REOPEN PLEASE GOD LET OUR EMPIRE NOT CRUMBLE.
posted by benzenedream at 5:35 PM on June 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I'm just assuming mass fraudulence in testing. First string center gets a positive the night before the Big Game, he's playing.
posted by j_curiouser at 5:57 PM on June 5, 2020

Does this mean an end to the cornhole championships now showing on ESPN?
posted by calgirl at 6:47 PM on June 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

"I endorse Stephen Harper, and please buy my shitty wine." - Wayne Gretzky
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:51 PM on June 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Florida isn't looking like a great place currently. Nor Arizona, for baseball. Which, given the percentage of revenue generated by fans, looks like just isn't going to happen this year.
posted by Windopaene at 7:38 PM on June 5, 2020

i think the league is being as responsible as it can be while still restarting. my understanding is players wont be required to play if they feel unsafe. the union was involved from the beginning. there will be no fans in attendance or travel between cities.

obviously, until a vaccine is developed AND is widely distributed, the risk will not be zero. but there is something important in sports in lifting up the national morale. it's a balancing act, and i dont think what the nba is doing is reckless or wrong.

and on a personal note, i am so, so fucking excited to see my lakers in action at this point!
posted by wibari at 8:01 PM on June 5, 2020

Of the contact sports with multiple participants, NBA seems like one of the more feasible ones to return. With 15 person rosters, 22 teams means 330 athletes. That's 6-7 NFL teams and 3 CFB teams. Now, obviously the coaches, trainers, equipment managers, and other staff increase this number, as do families, referees, etc. But unlike baseball, which would need to get a full season in, 6 of these teams would be gone after 8 games.
posted by miguelcervantes at 8:03 PM on June 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I know that they're the NBA and they'll let them skirt around the rules, but what does this mean for the Raptors. Will the ones that stayed in Canada be let into the US? What if they're not US citizens? If they weren't famous people on a private plane, would ICE let a Cameroonian guy, a Congolese guy, a Canadian, a Brit, and a Spaniard just cross the border from Canada right now for non-medical/emergency work?
posted by thecjm at 8:10 PM on June 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Man, I would kill to be a data scientist on this experiment -- what long-term effect will those extra games (and not being quarantined) have on these players compared to those who get to stay home?
posted by Etrigan at 9:26 PM on June 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I know that they're the NBA and they'll let them skirt around the rules, but what does this mean for the Raptors. Will the ones that stayed in Canada be let into the US? What if they're not US citizens? If they weren't famous people on a private plane, would ICE let a Cameroonian guy, a Congolese guy, a Canadian, a Brit, and a Spaniard just cross the border from Canada right now for non-medical/emergency work?

It will probably be the same as what will happen for players from other states where there is a quarentine requirement for inbound travel like what the article mentions for players coming from New York. They will have to isolate for two weeks. So all they have to do is arrive in state earlier than everyone else.

I'm curious how the players will get their illicit PEDs while everyone is in a bubble. Will there be contactless delivery?
posted by srboisvert at 2:45 AM on June 6, 2020 [3 favorites]

I can assure you that contactless delivery of legal and illegal drugs is surging all across the country; surely these rich folks will figure it out in Florida.
posted by SaltySalticid at 4:57 AM on June 6, 2020 [2 favorites]

It just glad Ticketmaster is FINALLY refunding us for the postponed game we bought tickets for in January. Back then 600 bucks was a major expenditure, but one we could budget for, now it’s 3 entire weeks of groceries! We’re pretty relieved.

I hope they can keep everyone healthy, but I’m dubious. Dubious is the vocabulary word for the entire year, though. Go Spurs?
posted by Devils Rancher at 5:16 AM on June 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

No matter what happens, it'll be just like a real NBA season to me: the Bulls aren't even in the discussion!

(I'd love to believe that the new GM will make magic happen with a roster filled with players whose ceiling is fourth best guy on the losing team in the second round)
posted by Ghidorah at 10:40 PM on June 7, 2020 [1 favorite]