Nothing But Bans

October 18, 2020 12:57 AM

Election Profit Makers (Soundcloud) is back for the 2020 US elections, hosted once again by Jon Kimball, Starlee Kine, and David Rees. Ostensibly about betting on PredictIt, the show also reviews notable city skylines, remixes politics-related music, and has raised $20,000 for voting rights organisations by listeners paying to ban their friends from listening to the show, with the ultimate goal of reaching zero listeners by election day.

Previously: How to election profit-make (2016)

posted by adrianhon (9 comments total)

I haven't listened yet, but Jon and David were the guests on the most recent Jordan, Jesse, Go! and any tacit vote of approval from those guys is enough for me to check something out.
posted by Shepherd at 8:04 AM on October 18, 2020 [1 favorite]

Hands-down the best podcast around. I hope they keep going after the election is over.
posted by Ike_Arumba at 8:12 AM on October 18, 2020

In the post-2016 election episode, the absurd juxtaposition of their grand, collective dread at our failing democracy (which I shared!) and their narrow indignance at the unexpected financial loss they had suffered (which I did not share and could gleefully laugh at them for) was a kind of perfectly-attuned-to-the-moment gallows humor I don't expect I'll ever again see in my lifetime.
posted by billjings at 1:19 PM on October 18, 2020

I've got all my IEM money on DEM20_WTA. I really thought Trump might swing up to .350 or so but after that first debate it was clear that instead of changing like, anything at all or cleaning up his behavior, he was doubling down on obnoxious White House Trump. I'm sure there's gonna be a bunch of motion towards 50-50 on election night but fuck it, not gonna try to time that.
posted by pwnguin at 11:25 PM on October 18, 2020

Im betting dems to win electoral college on the three spreads between 60-209. Seems like a safe bet to me.
posted by ejoey at 9:05 AM on October 19, 2020

David Rees on Judge John Hodgman
posted by look busy at 9:14 AM on October 19, 2020

You know there's money to be made when the IEM has to put up massive walls of red text in an announcements section reminding people to read the prospectus:

"Pres20_WTA Prospectus Reminder The payoffs in this market will be based on the popular vote received by the official Democratic and Republican nominees in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election. Payoffs are NOT affected by votes received by nominees from other parties, the outcome of the electoral college or any vote taken by the House of Representatives should such a vote be necessary....In the event that the election is delayed or postponed, liquidation will take place in a timely fashion after the close of polling sites for the popular vote."
posted by pwnguin at 2:27 PM on October 23, 2020

i found a local (non-US) sports betting operation offering odds for hundreds of weird and wonderful election outcomes. Some of the bets offered seem wackily mispriced compared to the probabilities estimated by the the modelling from fivethirthyeight & the economist -- so now I'm betting on a range of electoral vote outcomes such as "Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina", "Democrats to win Maine (statewide), Republicans to win Maine 2nd Congressional District", "Biden to win 306 or more electoral college votes". Also weird low-probability high-payoff stuff like "Democrats to win Texas" -- it's a long shot but with the bookie offering odds of 3.6 and fivethirtyeight alleging Biden has a 35% chance of winning, worth a gamble. At worst I'll learn something while having the salt of foolish self-inflicted financial losses rubbed into the wound if trump wins again.
posted by are-coral-made at 3:47 AM on October 25, 2020

DEM20_WTA contracts were liquidated at $1.000 each and REP20_WTA contracts were liquidated at $0.000 each

Welp, earned another hundo but those winnings seem destined for the liquor store considering the electoral college is still in the air.
posted by pwnguin at 12:15 AM on November 6, 2020