Elon Musk doesn't want to buy twitter any more
July 8, 2022 4:14 PM Subscribe
Some details about legal issues of Musk backing out "Legal experts have said Musk can’t just walk away from the deal. His April agreement to buy the company included a commitment to go through with the acquisition unless there’s a major change to the business, and legal experts say nothing has happened to meet that threshold. Musk has previously threatened to scuttle the deal if Twitter didn’t give him more data to run his own analysis on how many spam bots it has, while Twitter has said it can’t give up personal information on its users like their names, emails and IP addresses, which it uses to come up with its own bot numbers."
Yeah. That due diligence thing is a big deal.
He's going to lose money. Maybe one billion maybe more.
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
posted by Splunge at 4:27 PM on July 8, 2022 [41 favorites]
He's going to lose money. Maybe one billion maybe more.
Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
posted by Splunge at 4:27 PM on July 8, 2022 [41 favorites]
A lot of people out there are trying to turn this into a brilliant move by Certified Business Genius Elon Musk but I can't see how that's possible. He got into the deal on a whim and then the markets tanked and he couldn't afford it anymore. Now he's either out $1 billion or out however much the coming lawsuits are going to cost. Dumbass! Send yourself to mars!!!
posted by dis_integration at 4:28 PM on July 8, 2022 [42 favorites]
posted by dis_integration at 4:28 PM on July 8, 2022 [42 favorites]
🍿
posted by rogerroger at 4:31 PM on July 8, 2022 [59 favorites]
posted by rogerroger at 4:31 PM on July 8, 2022 [59 favorites]
There maybe something good that will come from this… Maybe now he’ll be able to spend more quality time with his many children away from all that big bad business stuff that seems to form a rift between his being a business genius versus being a loving father.
posted by njohnson23 at 4:34 PM on July 8, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by njohnson23 at 4:34 PM on July 8, 2022 [8 favorites]
Why are we not hunting him for sport?
posted by Kitteh at 4:35 PM on July 8, 2022 [117 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 4:35 PM on July 8, 2022 [117 favorites]
Given the recent news about Musk's children stemming from an affair with one of his employees, it's safe to say that Musk has difficulties knowing when to pull out.
posted by NoxAeternum at 4:36 PM on July 8, 2022 [89 favorites]
posted by NoxAeternum at 4:36 PM on July 8, 2022 [89 favorites]
He never intended to buy Twitter. When are people going to stop believing everything this fraud says because he's a GeNiuS?
posted by Chuffy at 4:36 PM on July 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by Chuffy at 4:36 PM on July 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
Oh good I can unprivate my twitter account now.
(I was gonna delete in protest at the news until I thought about how the deal could go south so instead I just iced it for a bit ...)
posted by subdee at 4:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
(I was gonna delete in protest at the news until I thought about how the deal could go south so instead I just iced it for a bit ...)
posted by subdee at 4:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
At this point, given the drop in share price over l'affaire Twitter, the lawsuits, the bullshit push to go back to the office (and the dystopian tracking over it), and oh yes, knocking up one of the company executives - I don't see Musk being in control of Tesla much longer.
posted by NoxAeternum at 4:42 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by NoxAeternum at 4:42 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
So many lawyers are going to make so much money on this.
posted by Etrigan at 4:42 PM on July 8, 2022 [26 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 4:42 PM on July 8, 2022 [26 favorites]
I mean, given that tech stocks are going down all over the place, even clearly profitable businesses like FB and Google, it would be sheer lunacy for the Twitter board not to require specific performance here i.e. no kill fee, you have to buy this bad-boy for the price you said you would.
posted by atrazine at 4:51 PM on July 8, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by atrazine at 4:51 PM on July 8, 2022 [8 favorites]
Of course he never intended to buy Twitter. But he did a lot of legally binding shit that indicated he did intend to buy Twitter. And GOD do I hope he gets nailed to the fucking wall as this all unravels.
posted by potrzebie at 4:52 PM on July 8, 2022 [45 favorites]
posted by potrzebie at 4:52 PM on July 8, 2022 [45 favorites]
He got what he wanted out of this: more time on stage, under the spotlight, yuge audience . He’ll be moving on to the next ego booster in short order.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 4:53 PM on July 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by armoir from antproof case at 4:53 PM on July 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
The sad thing is that Musk has more money than Twitter does to spend on lawyers, so I hope that paperwork is pretty good otherwise he'll just drive them out of existence like Jarmdyce v Jarmdyce.
posted by hippybear at 4:56 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:56 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
> He never intended to buy Twitter. When are people going to stop believing everything this fraud says because he's a GeNiuS?
He absolutely intended to buy Twitter. He signed a legally binding contract to buy it. It doesn't get more intentional than that!
The problem with this whole.. thing.. as Matt Levine points out in his writing about it, is how do you force an incredibly rich person with no shame to follow the law.
posted by riotnrrd at 4:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [42 favorites]
He absolutely intended to buy Twitter. He signed a legally binding contract to buy it. It doesn't get more intentional than that!
The problem with this whole.. thing.. as Matt Levine points out in his writing about it, is how do you force an incredibly rich person with no shame to follow the law.
posted by riotnrrd at 4:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [42 favorites]
Elon Musk doesn't want to buy twitter any more
“any more” here is maybe… one day after they accepted the offer? Certainly by the first time he complained about spam bots.
posted by Going To Maine at 4:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
“any more” here is maybe… one day after they accepted the offer? Certainly by the first time he complained about spam bots.
posted by Going To Maine at 4:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
> Chuffy: "He never intended to buy Twitter."
Personally (and without any inside information), I actually think he did intend to buy Twitter, at least at the start. I mean, he went to the trouble of rounding up a bunch of banks (plural) to help provide financing for the deal. Up until that point, I was probably thinking that there was something like a 50% chance he was serious and 50% chance it was just a stunt. However, once he got the banks involved, I guessed that he was most likely serious. He could have just said he was going to buy Twitter with his own money if he was just going to bail on it later.
Instead, I think he simply realized he made a bad business decision (e.g.: price was too high) and now he wants to slip out of the deal. However, unlike ghosting a Facebook marketplace seller who's trying to get rid of an armoire, ol' Elon's finding out that it might not be so easy to bail on this deal. Normally, someone of Elon's wealth would be able to get away with pretty much anything but, in this case, it's not just some randos he's screwing over. It's everyone holding Twitter stock which includes some pretty heavy hitters -- specifically, the kinds of people and organizations who would stand to lose out on multi-million dollar paydays if the deal doesn't go through, especially now with TWTR stock price where it is.
On that note, I'm reminded of the fact that one of the only people who's doing serious time from the fallout of the 2008-2009 financial crisis is Bernie Madoff... because his crime was stealing from rich people. However, judging from the current TWTR stock price (which is well away from the putative purchase price), it seems the market itself thinks Elon will once again be able to get away with his bullshit.
posted by mhum at 4:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
Personally (and without any inside information), I actually think he did intend to buy Twitter, at least at the start. I mean, he went to the trouble of rounding up a bunch of banks (plural) to help provide financing for the deal. Up until that point, I was probably thinking that there was something like a 50% chance he was serious and 50% chance it was just a stunt. However, once he got the banks involved, I guessed that he was most likely serious. He could have just said he was going to buy Twitter with his own money if he was just going to bail on it later.
Instead, I think he simply realized he made a bad business decision (e.g.: price was too high) and now he wants to slip out of the deal. However, unlike ghosting a Facebook marketplace seller who's trying to get rid of an armoire, ol' Elon's finding out that it might not be so easy to bail on this deal. Normally, someone of Elon's wealth would be able to get away with pretty much anything but, in this case, it's not just some randos he's screwing over. It's everyone holding Twitter stock which includes some pretty heavy hitters -- specifically, the kinds of people and organizations who would stand to lose out on multi-million dollar paydays if the deal doesn't go through, especially now with TWTR stock price where it is.
On that note, I'm reminded of the fact that one of the only people who's doing serious time from the fallout of the 2008-2009 financial crisis is Bernie Madoff... because his crime was stealing from rich people. However, judging from the current TWTR stock price (which is well away from the putative purchase price), it seems the market itself thinks Elon will once again be able to get away with his bullshit.
posted by mhum at 4:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
"The Twitter Board is committed to closing the transaction on the price and terms agreed upon with Mr. Musk and plans to pursue legal action to enforce the merger agreement. We are confident we will prevail in the Delaware Court of Chancery." - Bret Taylor, Chairman of the Board - Twitter
posted by Chuffy at 5:00 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Chuffy at 5:00 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm kind of liking the theory that Musk did it to liquidate a huge amount of Tesla stock at a really high price without getting anyone else to panic. A billion dollars might have been worth it.
posted by JoeZydeco at 5:01 PM on July 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
posted by JoeZydeco at 5:01 PM on July 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
Certainly by the first time he complained about spam bots.
...half of which were probably spawned by Musk to talk up his other ventures, LOL.
posted by Chuffy at 5:03 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
...half of which were probably spawned by Musk to talk up his other ventures, LOL.
posted by Chuffy at 5:03 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also, speaking of Musk and his kids, one of them is seeking to change their name in court because they want nothing to do with him.
posted by NoxAeternum at 5:09 PM on July 8, 2022 [21 favorites]
posted by NoxAeternum at 5:09 PM on July 8, 2022 [21 favorites]
I believed his intent to purchase Twitter as much as I believed that Tesla would have a self-driving car, capable of driving from New York to San Francisco, by 2019...2021...2024...
posted by Chuffy at 5:09 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Chuffy at 5:09 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Ooh! This is a big day for fans of the Delaware Court of Chancery. The forums will be buzzing tonight!
posted by Kattullus at 5:15 PM on July 8, 2022 [45 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 5:15 PM on July 8, 2022 [45 favorites]
The legal fight to force Musk to consummate would take years. In that time Twitter would be trying to pick up the shattered pieces of its board and executive team, who showed horrendous judgment in the first place by even considering Musk to be acting in good faith. Combine this with what will be an ongoing campaign by Musk to disparage the company, and they are in an absolutely terrible position.
Twitter’s board is feckless. I think they bring the suit, play hardball for all of 9 months, and then accept a settlement for an amount somewhere slightly less than $1B. Meanwhile the shareholder value will tank by twice that due to the reputation hit.
Musk will be slapped by additional suits from shareholders of both Twitter and Tesla, and the wise among the money folk will be more circumspect in dealing with him in the future.
But there will always—always—be other marks.
posted by Room 101 at 5:18 PM on July 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
Twitter’s board is feckless. I think they bring the suit, play hardball for all of 9 months, and then accept a settlement for an amount somewhere slightly less than $1B. Meanwhile the shareholder value will tank by twice that due to the reputation hit.
Musk will be slapped by additional suits from shareholders of both Twitter and Tesla, and the wise among the money folk will be more circumspect in dealing with him in the future.
But there will always—always—be other marks.
posted by Room 101 at 5:18 PM on July 8, 2022 [16 favorites]
Personally (and without any inside information), I actually think he did intend to buy Twitter, at least at the start
I think it's pretty clear that he really intended to do so. Why? Twitter is where he pumps his brand, I guess. Musk is a true Poster, he can't resist posting, a posting freak, who wanted to crown himself king of the posters, and fight against wokeness or whatever the fuck. Like what if you just changed twitter into truth social. Otherwise, no idea. But since April when this mess started, Tesla stock, his major source of wealth, went from $1,145 a share to ~$750. That's a huge loss in his net worth and makes the twitter deal *really* expensive for him. For everyone saying this was some play on his part, what did he get out of it? TSLA shareholders fled, and now he's mired in lawsuits, looks like an idiot. The only way this turned out well for him was if he actually got control of twitter.
posted by dis_integration at 5:28 PM on July 8, 2022 [9 favorites]
I think it's pretty clear that he really intended to do so. Why? Twitter is where he pumps his brand, I guess. Musk is a true Poster, he can't resist posting, a posting freak, who wanted to crown himself king of the posters, and fight against wokeness or whatever the fuck. Like what if you just changed twitter into truth social. Otherwise, no idea. But since April when this mess started, Tesla stock, his major source of wealth, went from $1,145 a share to ~$750. That's a huge loss in his net worth and makes the twitter deal *really* expensive for him. For everyone saying this was some play on his part, what did he get out of it? TSLA shareholders fled, and now he's mired in lawsuits, looks like an idiot. The only way this turned out well for him was if he actually got control of twitter.
posted by dis_integration at 5:28 PM on July 8, 2022 [9 favorites]
The sad thing is that Musk has more money than Twitter does to spend on lawyers, so I hope that paperwork is pretty good otherwise he'll just drive them out of existence like Jarmdyce v Jarmdyce.
I actually wonder if there's a price point at which the legal disparity evens out again.
posted by corb at 5:31 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
I actually wonder if there's a price point at which the legal disparity evens out again.
posted by corb at 5:31 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
Hilarious
posted by oldnumberseven at 5:31 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by oldnumberseven at 5:31 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
On some level, I was hoping he'd actually go through with it. He's terrible at business without help from others, and Twitter's subsequent, inevitable demise might have catalyzed the dismantling of Facebook and other toxic social media networks that have helped and profited from the ascent of violent, right-wing political movements across the world. That kind of destruction may have even lead to his being held accountable either by legal or private means, for once, as it seems likely he will walk away from this latest debacle.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:39 PM on July 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:39 PM on July 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
I have a lot of complicated thoughts about this. Mostly about how Twitter moves on from this debacle. Twitter's board says they're going to sue to enforce the acquisition contract. They might actually mean it or maybe they're just trying to extract a large breakup penalty. But almost no one I know attached to the company actually wants Musk in charge. So how do they recover? They're greatly weakened. They need a strong leader and a new sense of mission to come out of this mess. Sadly they are lacking those things.
A lot of the blame goes at the feet of the last half-time leader, Jack Dorsey. He reportedly was encouraging this Musk acquisition as he was on his way out the door of the CEO job and the board. His tweet endorsing Musk and the deal sure has aged badly.
I wonder if this will affect Musk's ability to do deals in the future. I can't imagine anyone else will agree to an acquisition by him without a much stricter process.
Despite all the problems I still love Twitter. It's a very important part of my online life. It serves a unique role as a public medium for the world. It's got all sorts of problems from bad content moderation policies to never making as much money as it needs to. But I want it to survive.
posted by Nelson at 5:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
A lot of the blame goes at the feet of the last half-time leader, Jack Dorsey. He reportedly was encouraging this Musk acquisition as he was on his way out the door of the CEO job and the board. His tweet endorsing Musk and the deal sure has aged badly.
In principle, I don’t believe anyone should own or run Twitter. It wants to be a public good at a protocol level, not a company. Solving for the problem of it being a company however, Elon is the singular solution I trust. I trust his mission to extend the light of consciousness.It sounded gross when he wrote that back in April and it certainly has not improved with age.
I wonder if this will affect Musk's ability to do deals in the future. I can't imagine anyone else will agree to an acquisition by him without a much stricter process.
Despite all the problems I still love Twitter. It's a very important part of my online life. It serves a unique role as a public medium for the world. It's got all sorts of problems from bad content moderation policies to never making as much money as it needs to. But I want it to survive.
posted by Nelson at 5:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
Of course Twitter will sue, and Musk will say, look do you want to pay lawyers all this money? I'll give you $250 million to walk away. They'll settle for something way under a billion, I'm sure.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:50 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:50 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Maybe don’t sign a $44 billion deal after the edibles kick in?
posted by sjswitzer at 6:07 PM on July 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by sjswitzer at 6:07 PM on July 8, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'm reminded of the fact that one of the only people who's doing serious time from the fallout of the 2008-2009 financial crisis is Bernie Madoff...
He is doing some REAL serious time now. He has been dead for awhile.
posted by jcworth at 6:08 PM on July 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
He is doing some REAL serious time now. He has been dead for awhile.
posted by jcworth at 6:08 PM on July 8, 2022 [12 favorites]
FFS, he could have put up a blog and had a million followers instantly.
Dumbass was just trying to do more market manipulation and it may have backfired. No telling at this point.
My gut says he’s right where he wants to be right now. If he has to pay the billion (which I seriously doubt he will - lawyerly argle bargle and all), then it might be a different story.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 6:09 PM on July 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Dumbass was just trying to do more market manipulation and it may have backfired. No telling at this point.
My gut says he’s right where he wants to be right now. If he has to pay the billion (which I seriously doubt he will - lawyerly argle bargle and all), then it might be a different story.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 6:09 PM on July 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
If he walks away and it turns into a long lawsuit.. Musk keeps his name in the news for a long time, and he obviously loves that. And twitter's internal problems get dragged out in public, and that is not good for the business. Can twitter really afford more of what has happened already? They just admitted they are canceling a million bot accounts a day. That level of bot registration does not develop overnight. It shows that they failed to act on the problem for a long time. Not good.
Anyway, I don't enjoy the Musk thing anymore. He needs an intervention, and no one around him is powerful enough to do it.
posted by joelr at 6:12 PM on July 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Anyway, I don't enjoy the Musk thing anymore. He needs an intervention, and no one around him is powerful enough to do it.
posted by joelr at 6:12 PM on July 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
The legal fight to force Musk to consummate would take years. In that time Twitter would be trying to pick up the shattered pieces of its board and executive team, who showed horrendous judgment in the first place by even considering Musk to be acting in good faith.
They were damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Had they not accepted the deal they’d be on the end of a slew of shareholder suits about not fulfilling their fiduciary duty.
posted by jmauro at 6:12 PM on July 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
They were damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Had they not accepted the deal they’d be on the end of a slew of shareholder suits about not fulfilling their fiduciary duty.
posted by jmauro at 6:12 PM on July 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
Dumbass was just trying to do more market manipulation and it may have backfired.
I always thought his pursuit of Twitter was 10% MAGA jack off wanting get get dear leader his account back and 90% some sort of pump and dump scheme.
posted by Mitheral at 6:19 PM on July 8, 2022 [14 favorites]
I always thought his pursuit of Twitter was 10% MAGA jack off wanting get get dear leader his account back and 90% some sort of pump and dump scheme.
posted by Mitheral at 6:19 PM on July 8, 2022 [14 favorites]
I hope they both sink to the bottom of the ocean.
posted by tmt at 6:40 PM on July 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by tmt at 6:40 PM on July 8, 2022 [10 favorites]
One thing that hasn't been widely reported (it has been a little reported) is that the Twitter CEO has a pretty ironclad contract calling for really substantial payouts if he's fired for basically any reason within the next few years.
...soooo, from his POV, this is a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation. No downside at all -- Musk wins, he gets fired? Ca$h monie$.
Musk loses, pays $1B? Ca$h monie$.
Corporate strategy should always, always, always, be viewed through the lens of the personal interests of the CEOs and Board.
posted by aramaic at 6:49 PM on July 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
...soooo, from his POV, this is a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation. No downside at all -- Musk wins, he gets fired? Ca$h monie$.
Musk loses, pays $1B? Ca$h monie$.
Corporate strategy should always, always, always, be viewed through the lens of the personal interests of the CEOs and Board.
posted by aramaic at 6:49 PM on July 8, 2022 [17 favorites]
I get the feeling and have the opinion that all of this was to stop a kid from posting the whereabout of Musk's jets.
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 6:50 PM on July 8, 2022 [39 favorites]
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 6:50 PM on July 8, 2022 [39 favorites]
Written before the latest announcement but still pertinent:
Whatever the outcome, it will be a test of what really matters in billionaire business in 2022. In one corner, there are laws and contracts and old-school conventions about the way negotiations work—most notably, the concept that when someone signs papers agreeing to do something, they have to do it or pay a penalty. In the other corner is complete and total bullshit, wielded by a bullshitter who is attempting to worm his way to a preferred outcome on the strength of being not just the richest person in the world, but also the most annoying. It is a heavyweight bout between how business is done by most people and how it is done by one person. We are all about to locate the outer limit of what hucksterism can achieve.
posted by googly at 6:51 PM on July 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
Whatever the outcome, it will be a test of what really matters in billionaire business in 2022. In one corner, there are laws and contracts and old-school conventions about the way negotiations work—most notably, the concept that when someone signs papers agreeing to do something, they have to do it or pay a penalty. In the other corner is complete and total bullshit, wielded by a bullshitter who is attempting to worm his way to a preferred outcome on the strength of being not just the richest person in the world, but also the most annoying. It is a heavyweight bout between how business is done by most people and how it is done by one person. We are all about to locate the outer limit of what hucksterism can achieve.
posted by googly at 6:51 PM on July 8, 2022 [23 favorites]
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here and wish to stake my claim for liking the man.
posted by lometogo at 6:54 PM on July 8, 2022
posted by lometogo at 6:54 PM on July 8, 2022
I looked at the letter and there is 10 lawyers who put there names down next to Musk, and that simply looks to me like he knows he's on the losing side of this.
posted by zenon at 6:56 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by zenon at 6:56 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here and wish to stake my claim for liking the man.
One reason would be cool to know...
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:58 PM on July 8, 2022 [58 favorites]
One reason would be cool to know...
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:58 PM on July 8, 2022 [58 favorites]
I'm kind of liking the theory that Musk did it to liquidate a huge amount of Tesla stock at a really high price without getting anyone else to panic
Worth noting that he bought $3 billion worth of Twitter stock back in April. If his plan was just to dick around with them as an excuse to liquidate $8 billion in Tesla stock, that seems… not smart. Now he’s got a 9% stake in a company embroiled in a protracted legal mess of his own making. If he were to sell that stake now, it would be at nearly a 30% loss.
posted by dephlogisticated at 7:12 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Worth noting that he bought $3 billion worth of Twitter stock back in April. If his plan was just to dick around with them as an excuse to liquidate $8 billion in Tesla stock, that seems… not smart. Now he’s got a 9% stake in a company embroiled in a protracted legal mess of his own making. If he were to sell that stake now, it would be at nearly a 30% loss.
posted by dephlogisticated at 7:12 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
The entire thing seems poorly considered, other than as part of some scheme to manipulate stock prices. I hope he loses money whichever way this plays out.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:22 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Dip Flash at 7:22 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
We can presume that some, any, part of this whole process was, at some point, a rational decision.
Bwaaahahahahahaha of course we can't!
Musk is just, example #1 of why billionaires shouldn't exist. Not only should no individuals have or keep these amounts of capital, but when they do have them, they don't do much of anything useful with them. Colossal amounts of 'value' have appeared and disappeared as if by magic and what does anyone have to show for it? Fuck-all. It's almost as if there's a core falseness...
posted by panhopticon at 7:37 PM on July 8, 2022 [34 favorites]
Bwaaahahahahahaha of course we can't!
Musk is just, example #1 of why billionaires shouldn't exist. Not only should no individuals have or keep these amounts of capital, but when they do have them, they don't do much of anything useful with them. Colossal amounts of 'value' have appeared and disappeared as if by magic and what does anyone have to show for it? Fuck-all. It's almost as if there's a core falseness...
posted by panhopticon at 7:37 PM on July 8, 2022 [34 favorites]
Billion for him represents less than 1% of his net worth. No need to start a gofundme.
posted by jcworth at 7:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by jcworth at 7:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here and wish to stake my claim for liking the man.
I used to, if not like him, at least not despise him (you can see several fpps in my posting history that are favorable to him), but he just kept going and going with the bullshit. Fuck him.
posted by Literaryhero at 7:59 PM on July 8, 2022 [41 favorites]
I used to, if not like him, at least not despise him (you can see several fpps in my posting history that are favorable to him), but he just kept going and going with the bullshit. Fuck him.
posted by Literaryhero at 7:59 PM on July 8, 2022 [41 favorites]
i think this is his way of getting a lower price on twitter - yes, he looks somewhat foolish, but his campaign of complaining about bots is wrecking what little reputation twitter had - they can try suing him all they want but he will utterly trash them in the process - he'll destroy that business just to teach them a lesson
if i was truly clever i would pick some people's entrails to hang other people with, but i'm not feeling that right now, feel free ...
posted by pyramid termite at 8:22 PM on July 8, 2022
if i was truly clever i would pick some people's entrails to hang other people with, but i'm not feeling that right now, feel free ...
posted by pyramid termite at 8:22 PM on July 8, 2022
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here and wish to stake my claim for liking the man.
Musk is toxic trash, but I feel bad for the wake of damage he's left behind.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:27 PM on July 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
Musk is toxic trash, but I feel bad for the wake of damage he's left behind.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:27 PM on July 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
It helps to remember that Twitter is a cancer on the ass of society, useful only as a propaganda tool. Legitimate, independent journalism needs a short form... why?
posted by metametamind at 8:36 PM on July 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by metametamind at 8:36 PM on July 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here
I can’t believe Elon Musk failed to deliver on a giant promise. Absolutely stunned by this development that has happened literally every time he’s promised something
Also, he's a fucking MAGA even if he won't openly admit it, meaning he's a fucking fascist.
posted by soundguy99 at 8:37 PM on July 8, 2022 [62 favorites]
I can’t believe Elon Musk failed to deliver on a giant promise. Absolutely stunned by this development that has happened literally every time he’s promised something
Also, he's a fucking MAGA even if he won't openly admit it, meaning he's a fucking fascist.
posted by soundguy99 at 8:37 PM on July 8, 2022 [62 favorites]
Legitimate, independent journalism needs a short form... why?
Not sure twitter was ever designed as a journalism platform. It was intended, I believe, to be a reverse-chronological log of what people you follow post and repost, like a small community thing. The other uses of it seem to have come later.
If you poke around in the beast's internals enough, you can get it back to this reverse-chronological state. After you do that, you unfollow all the accounts you don't like. And then you've got what you want -- a twitter stream by people posting things you enjoy that you want to interact with.
posted by hippybear at 8:40 PM on July 8, 2022 [21 favorites]
Not sure twitter was ever designed as a journalism platform. It was intended, I believe, to be a reverse-chronological log of what people you follow post and repost, like a small community thing. The other uses of it seem to have come later.
If you poke around in the beast's internals enough, you can get it back to this reverse-chronological state. After you do that, you unfollow all the accounts you don't like. And then you've got what you want -- a twitter stream by people posting things you enjoy that you want to interact with.
posted by hippybear at 8:40 PM on July 8, 2022 [21 favorites]
Why are we not hunting him for sport?
Because watching him get sucked into all kinds of legal traps and spring every one because of his ego is going to be more fun.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:24 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
Because watching him get sucked into all kinds of legal traps and spring every one because of his ego is going to be more fun.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:24 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
> Colossal amounts of 'value' have appeared and disappeared as if by magic
A car transporter carries 7 Teslas, yes?
7 x $70k (Model Ys) x 20% after-tax profit = $100k of money for shareholders on that truck.
Elon's share of that is ~$24,000 while the median investor will see a few pennies accrue.
I think it's possible, maybe even probable, that Tesla will be moving 1 million of these transporters per year later this decade.
Dude's got the typical Silicon Valley tech bro libertarianism streak. but I hate it that the Cybertruck and Starlink are the main things I'm looking forward to this decade, which looks to me to be otherwise a world of s--- coming at us.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:47 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
A car transporter carries 7 Teslas, yes?
7 x $70k (Model Ys) x 20% after-tax profit = $100k of money for shareholders on that truck.
Elon's share of that is ~$24,000 while the median investor will see a few pennies accrue.
I think it's possible, maybe even probable, that Tesla will be moving 1 million of these transporters per year later this decade.
Dude's got the typical Silicon Valley tech bro libertarianism streak. but I hate it that the Cybertruck and Starlink are the main things I'm looking forward to this decade, which looks to me to be otherwise a world of s--- coming at us.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:47 PM on July 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here and wish to stake my claim for liking the man.
And I'm amazed that you'd admit liking him now that his true character is known.
We're talking about the scion of emerald mining magnates (who has talked about using the precious stones as pocket cash) from South Africa, who lucked into getting in on the ground floor of PayPal, before getting the boot because his ignorance was endangering the money. He then used the money from that to get into other businesses, building geek cred while being an abusive boss (the story of how he fired his first assistant, the one who helped him get SpaceX started, for having the temerity to ask for a raise is infamous) and abusive husband (read up on how he's treated his partners, starting with his first wife) and absentee father (which is part of why his daughter is cutting all ties with him, down to rejecting his surname.) His operation of Tesla has resulted in a body count as well as a number of lawsuits over discriminatory behavior, and SpaceX has had a similar tale, up to the CEO firing employees for publicly demanding the company actually hold Musk to the sexual harassment policies they claim to have.
At this point, if you're telling me you like who Elon Musk is, you're telling me you're ignorant of who he is.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:52 PM on July 8, 2022 [123 favorites]
And I'm amazed that you'd admit liking him now that his true character is known.
We're talking about the scion of emerald mining magnates (who has talked about using the precious stones as pocket cash) from South Africa, who lucked into getting in on the ground floor of PayPal, before getting the boot because his ignorance was endangering the money. He then used the money from that to get into other businesses, building geek cred while being an abusive boss (the story of how he fired his first assistant, the one who helped him get SpaceX started, for having the temerity to ask for a raise is infamous) and abusive husband (read up on how he's treated his partners, starting with his first wife) and absentee father (which is part of why his daughter is cutting all ties with him, down to rejecting his surname.) His operation of Tesla has resulted in a body count as well as a number of lawsuits over discriminatory behavior, and SpaceX has had a similar tale, up to the CEO firing employees for publicly demanding the company actually hold Musk to the sexual harassment policies they claim to have.
At this point, if you're telling me you like who Elon Musk is, you're telling me you're ignorant of who he is.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:52 PM on July 8, 2022 [123 favorites]
I trust his mission to extend the light of consciousness.
I feel like Jack Dorsey doesn’t get made fun of enough.
posted by atoxyl at 9:54 PM on July 8, 2022 [52 favorites]
I feel like Jack Dorsey doesn’t get made fun of enough.
posted by atoxyl at 9:54 PM on July 8, 2022 [52 favorites]
I feel like Jack Dorsey doesn’t get made fun of enough.
He literally redefined the position of CEO of what used to be Square to (cannot make this up, not enough drugs in the world) be the "Block Head".
Nobody can make fun of Jack Dorsey like Jack Dorsey can.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
He literally redefined the position of CEO of what used to be Square to (cannot make this up, not enough drugs in the world) be the "Block Head".
Nobody can make fun of Jack Dorsey like Jack Dorsey can.
posted by NoxAeternum at 9:57 PM on July 8, 2022 [7 favorites]
if i was truly clever i would pick some people's entrails to hang other people with
Cmon, it’s 2022, you can just admit you love apartheid edgelords.
posted by aramaic at 10:00 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Cmon, it’s 2022, you can just admit you love apartheid edgelords.
posted by aramaic at 10:00 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
I think it's possible, maybe even probable, that Tesla will be moving 1 million of these transporters per year later this decade.
I don't. The industry has already caught up in many ways - all the major makers have EV lines, without the crippling fit and finish issues that continue to plague Tesla to this day. Not to mention they don't have problems like "our products actively try to kill their users" - something that Tesla has been a pioneer at, with requiring the viewing of a 10 minute video to get out of a disabled and likely burning Tesla vehicle. There's also the numerous lawsuits that Tesla is facing, thanks to Musk's attitudes, as well as a number of vaporware products - the F150 Lightning is already out on the streets, while the Cybertruck, that bastard child of a DeLorean and a Pontiac Aztek, is still MIA.
The reality is that Tesla is overvalued, and it seems the markets are catching on to this.
posted by NoxAeternum at 10:10 PM on July 8, 2022 [38 favorites]
I don't. The industry has already caught up in many ways - all the major makers have EV lines, without the crippling fit and finish issues that continue to plague Tesla to this day. Not to mention they don't have problems like "our products actively try to kill their users" - something that Tesla has been a pioneer at, with requiring the viewing of a 10 minute video to get out of a disabled and likely burning Tesla vehicle. There's also the numerous lawsuits that Tesla is facing, thanks to Musk's attitudes, as well as a number of vaporware products - the F150 Lightning is already out on the streets, while the Cybertruck, that bastard child of a DeLorean and a Pontiac Aztek, is still MIA.
The reality is that Tesla is overvalued, and it seems the markets are catching on to this.
posted by NoxAeternum at 10:10 PM on July 8, 2022 [38 favorites]
Tesla doesn’t make much money selling cars. They make most of their money selling emissions credits to real auto makers. They have three times the market cap of Toyota and 17 times the market cap of General Motors. Tesla delivered almost a million cars in 2021, while Toyota sold almost 10 million, and GM over six million.
I think it’s possible that Tesla has enough capitalization now with their inflated stock price to become a real, profitable company that makes things, but I think it’s more likely that they’ll more or less deflate as soon as the legacy auto makers decide to get serious about electric cars.
The model for Tesla at this point should be AOL in 2000. They should use their inflated stock to buy a real company. Like they should just buy GM. But I guess Tesla + GM isn’t worth $775 billion either so no matter what they’re due for a steep decline.
posted by chrchr at 10:27 PM on July 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
I think it’s possible that Tesla has enough capitalization now with their inflated stock price to become a real, profitable company that makes things, but I think it’s more likely that they’ll more or less deflate as soon as the legacy auto makers decide to get serious about electric cars.
The model for Tesla at this point should be AOL in 2000. They should use their inflated stock to buy a real company. Like they should just buy GM. But I guess Tesla + GM isn’t worth $775 billion either so no matter what they’re due for a steep decline.
posted by chrchr at 10:27 PM on July 8, 2022 [15 favorites]
At this point, if you're telling me you like who Elon Musk is, you're telling me you're ignorant of who he is.
That's actually the generous interpretation!
posted by Justinian at 10:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [58 favorites]
That's actually the generous interpretation!
posted by Justinian at 10:41 PM on July 8, 2022 [58 favorites]
At least his desire for an edit button seems to spring from an honest place.
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 10:59 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 10:59 PM on July 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
Tesla delivered almost a million cars in 2021, while Toyota sold almost 10 million, and GM over six million.
The total number of cars isn't really the comparison point. Tesla owns the luxury market (cars more than $50k) in the US. None of the other makers come close. BMW has more total sales, but like 65% of BMWs costing more than $50k are leased, so far less revenue is booked per sale. Tesla has lease rates in the 7-10% range.
GM's luxury brand Cadillac sales are abysmal. If it weren't for the Escalade SUV, it would be a dead brand. GM's turning itself around but it still is mostly a pickup truck company with products that aren't exactly cutting edge.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:29 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
The total number of cars isn't really the comparison point. Tesla owns the luxury market (cars more than $50k) in the US. None of the other makers come close. BMW has more total sales, but like 65% of BMWs costing more than $50k are leased, so far less revenue is booked per sale. Tesla has lease rates in the 7-10% range.
GM's luxury brand Cadillac sales are abysmal. If it weren't for the Escalade SUV, it would be a dead brand. GM's turning itself around but it still is mostly a pickup truck company with products that aren't exactly cutting edge.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:29 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
> Cybertruck, that bastard child of a DeLorean and a Pontiac Aztek
💛
posted by Sauce Trough at 11:53 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
💛
posted by Sauce Trough at 11:53 PM on July 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
I will be super pissed if the Twitter purchase is forced by a court. I do not want Twitter to be owned by Musk.
Musk paying a billion dollars is the best/funniest outcome. Musk actually owning Twitter is very bad.
posted by ryanrs at 12:06 AM on July 9, 2022 [27 favorites]
Musk paying a billion dollars is the best/funniest outcome. Musk actually owning Twitter is very bad.
posted by ryanrs at 12:06 AM on July 9, 2022 [27 favorites]
Tesla owns the luxury market (cars more than $50k) in the US. None of the other makers come close.
Companies like Volvo with their Polestar line are poised to challenge that position. Furthermore, Tesla's reputation of shoddy fit and finish (as one wag put it: "the stars may align, but the panels on a Tesla never will") will make it hard to compete once real luxury brands that don't have those fit and finish issues are up and running.
Tesla's position is purely a product of first mover advantage - which they have basically squandered.
posted by NoxAeternum at 12:53 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
Companies like Volvo with their Polestar line are poised to challenge that position. Furthermore, Tesla's reputation of shoddy fit and finish (as one wag put it: "the stars may align, but the panels on a Tesla never will") will make it hard to compete once real luxury brands that don't have those fit and finish issues are up and running.
Tesla's position is purely a product of first mover advantage - which they have basically squandered.
posted by NoxAeternum at 12:53 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
Tesla owns the luxury market (cars more than $50k)
I think it's stupid and wasteful but the luxury market right now is mostly absurdly large pickup trucks. Ford sold around 750,000 F150s alone last year which dwarves all of Tesla's sales across the board. I work in a lucrative and overpaid field and the work parking lot is 60% giant pickups that exist only as signs of conspicuous consumerism.
BMW has more total sales, but like 65% of BMWs costing more than $50k are leased, so far less revenue is booked per sale.
Renting is generally favorable to the manufacturer, which is why they do it. Someone renting a BMW is paying every single month rather than paying off the car after 4 years or so. Renting exteacts nearly as much money as a car payment plus they get to sell the car while it's still pretty valuable and the renter usually turns around and rents another pricy car.
posted by Candleman at 1:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
I think it's stupid and wasteful but the luxury market right now is mostly absurdly large pickup trucks. Ford sold around 750,000 F150s alone last year which dwarves all of Tesla's sales across the board. I work in a lucrative and overpaid field and the work parking lot is 60% giant pickups that exist only as signs of conspicuous consumerism.
BMW has more total sales, but like 65% of BMWs costing more than $50k are leased, so far less revenue is booked per sale.
Renting is generally favorable to the manufacturer, which is why they do it. Someone renting a BMW is paying every single month rather than paying off the car after 4 years or so. Renting exteacts nearly as much money as a car payment plus they get to sell the car while it's still pretty valuable and the renter usually turns around and rents another pricy car.
posted by Candleman at 1:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
Well... from an engineering perspective, I reckon Tesla's vehicles are about 5 years ahead of anyone else in the industry. And I don't see how the other makers are going to catch up.**
Manufacturing, yes, they suck at it right now. But... how much does the average customer care about panel gaps or imperfect paint? I've driven over 15 different cars as my daily driver and not once have I ever closely inspected for panel gaps or paint swirls.
The race is on to see if Toyota / Volkswagen / GM can copy Tesla's engineering quicker than Tesla can pull ahead and innovate, or whether Tesla can copy Toyota's manufacturing expertise before their sales tank in the face of superior competition.
---
** One example - wiring. Ok, depends how you define wiring (how long is a piece of string) but Elon is on the record as saying the Model S used a traditional wiring layout with 3km of wiring in it, the Model 3 was much more efficient at 1.5km of wiring, and the future the Model Y was going to have just 100 meters of wiring in it.
So yeah the Model Y thing was bullshit, they never got down that low, but if you compare teardowns their wiring is still 50% more efficient than their EV competitors, and that is absolutely huge when you realise the average automotive profit margin is about 8%.
The crazy thing is that Tesla doesn't even need to patent this. No one can copy their hub and spoke electrical distribution system because their company operates on a different model entirely. Other automakers pretty much buy off-the-shelf electrical products from different companies - anti-lock braking systems, crash sensors, parking sensors, reverse cameras, blind spot ultrasonic sensors, forward radar, powertrain control modules, emissions sensors.... and they each need their own wiring systems and their own computer chips. Tesla designs custom chips and writes custom software for it and runs all the wiring to a central hubs that integrate multiple different sensors because so much of it is in-house, saving a tonne of weight and cost on wiring.
This philosophy actually applies to almost everything in their cars. The mega-casting, etc. And the innovation isn't stopping there: the next step is the structural battery pack which is, again, massive: other automakers buy their battery packs off the shelf, and can't customize or innovate to the extent that Tesla is doing.
Then there's the octovalve, holy shit. Many cars have 5 different heating / cooling solutions - cooling the engine (radiator), heating the cabin (waste heat from the radiator), cooling the cabin (air conditioning), heating the battery (electric element), cooling the battery (fans or liquid cooling)
What if you could combine it all into one heat pump that just transferred heat between different components as needed? What if while cooling the batteries, the waste heat pumped out of the batteries could be recycled to heat the cabin?
The fact is, most automakers are basically systems integrators. They don't design a heat pump or new electrical architecture. They go to Bosch, Sumitomo, Denso, etc, who are the experts in their respective fields, but the irony is that those suppliers can't or won't innovate because they want to remain relevant: their motivation is to design and sell you a slightly better sensor or heat pump every year for 10% higher cost, not redesign something that will cost 50% less or even eliminate themselves from the car entirely.
And you know how almost every other automaker cut production in 2021 because there was a lack of computer chips? Tesla actually increased production... and how were they getting chips? Not are they the only automaker who can produce their own chips and write their own software in-house - which allowed them to quickly switch to alternate chips if a certain kind was unavailable... but simply with the threat of being able to produce their own chips, other chip-makers HAVE to prioritize Tesla deliveries... because if Tesla deems them an unreliable partner, Tesla could just replace them with in-house chips and software and freeze them out of what is potentially a future dominant automotive player. And no one wants to risk that.
Anyway. I could go on for about 10 more pages but I'll stop here...
posted by xdvesper at 1:48 AM on July 9, 2022 [26 favorites]
Manufacturing, yes, they suck at it right now. But... how much does the average customer care about panel gaps or imperfect paint? I've driven over 15 different cars as my daily driver and not once have I ever closely inspected for panel gaps or paint swirls.
The race is on to see if Toyota / Volkswagen / GM can copy Tesla's engineering quicker than Tesla can pull ahead and innovate, or whether Tesla can copy Toyota's manufacturing expertise before their sales tank in the face of superior competition.
---
** One example - wiring. Ok, depends how you define wiring (how long is a piece of string) but Elon is on the record as saying the Model S used a traditional wiring layout with 3km of wiring in it, the Model 3 was much more efficient at 1.5km of wiring, and the future the Model Y was going to have just 100 meters of wiring in it.
So yeah the Model Y thing was bullshit, they never got down that low, but if you compare teardowns their wiring is still 50% more efficient than their EV competitors, and that is absolutely huge when you realise the average automotive profit margin is about 8%.
The crazy thing is that Tesla doesn't even need to patent this. No one can copy their hub and spoke electrical distribution system because their company operates on a different model entirely. Other automakers pretty much buy off-the-shelf electrical products from different companies - anti-lock braking systems, crash sensors, parking sensors, reverse cameras, blind spot ultrasonic sensors, forward radar, powertrain control modules, emissions sensors.... and they each need their own wiring systems and their own computer chips. Tesla designs custom chips and writes custom software for it and runs all the wiring to a central hubs that integrate multiple different sensors because so much of it is in-house, saving a tonne of weight and cost on wiring.
This philosophy actually applies to almost everything in their cars. The mega-casting, etc. And the innovation isn't stopping there: the next step is the structural battery pack which is, again, massive: other automakers buy their battery packs off the shelf, and can't customize or innovate to the extent that Tesla is doing.
Then there's the octovalve, holy shit. Many cars have 5 different heating / cooling solutions - cooling the engine (radiator), heating the cabin (waste heat from the radiator), cooling the cabin (air conditioning), heating the battery (electric element), cooling the battery (fans or liquid cooling)
What if you could combine it all into one heat pump that just transferred heat between different components as needed? What if while cooling the batteries, the waste heat pumped out of the batteries could be recycled to heat the cabin?
The fact is, most automakers are basically systems integrators. They don't design a heat pump or new electrical architecture. They go to Bosch, Sumitomo, Denso, etc, who are the experts in their respective fields, but the irony is that those suppliers can't or won't innovate because they want to remain relevant: their motivation is to design and sell you a slightly better sensor or heat pump every year for 10% higher cost, not redesign something that will cost 50% less or even eliminate themselves from the car entirely.
And you know how almost every other automaker cut production in 2021 because there was a lack of computer chips? Tesla actually increased production... and how were they getting chips? Not are they the only automaker who can produce their own chips and write their own software in-house - which allowed them to quickly switch to alternate chips if a certain kind was unavailable... but simply with the threat of being able to produce their own chips, other chip-makers HAVE to prioritize Tesla deliveries... because if Tesla deems them an unreliable partner, Tesla could just replace them with in-house chips and software and freeze them out of what is potentially a future dominant automotive player. And no one wants to risk that.
Anyway. I could go on for about 10 more pages but I'll stop here...
posted by xdvesper at 1:48 AM on July 9, 2022 [26 favorites]
Of course he never intended to buy Twitter. But he did a lot of legally binding shit that indicated he did intend to buy Twitter.
It’s interesting, reading the (entirely believable) suggestions that he’s doing this as some form of long range stock manipulation scheme, which I have to admit, it sounds plausible. It directly conflicts with my image of musk as someone who was goaded into the concept of buying Twitter because he is a talentless hack who’s only ever profited from the work of others.
I’m torn. Those who’ve implied he’s doing this all at a long term calculation have made their case so convincingly that I worry my image of Musk as a doofy failson might have been a mistake. Maybe he is playing long term market manipulation games and is secretly an actual business genius? Honestly, I prefer my image of him as an absolute moron who’s only ever gotten where he is by failing upward. The idea that he might be actually doing things as mind-bogglingly dumb as all of this, and that the world is dumb enough to fall in line with him, that’s an all too believable, yet horrific outcome.
posted by Ghidorah at 5:06 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
It’s interesting, reading the (entirely believable) suggestions that he’s doing this as some form of long range stock manipulation scheme, which I have to admit, it sounds plausible. It directly conflicts with my image of musk as someone who was goaded into the concept of buying Twitter because he is a talentless hack who’s only ever profited from the work of others.
I’m torn. Those who’ve implied he’s doing this all at a long term calculation have made their case so convincingly that I worry my image of Musk as a doofy failson might have been a mistake. Maybe he is playing long term market manipulation games and is secretly an actual business genius? Honestly, I prefer my image of him as an absolute moron who’s only ever gotten where he is by failing upward. The idea that he might be actually doing things as mind-bogglingly dumb as all of this, and that the world is dumb enough to fall in line with him, that’s an all too believable, yet horrific outcome.
posted by Ghidorah at 5:06 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
Then there's the octovalve, holy shit. Many cars have 5 different heating / cooling solutions - cooling the engine (radiator), heating the cabin (waste heat from the radiator), cooling the cabin (air conditioning), heating the battery (electric element), cooling the battery (fans or liquid cooling)
What if you could combine it all into one heat pump that just transferred heat between different components as needed? What if while cooling the batteries, the waste heat pumped out of the batteries could be recycled to heat the cabin?
Well, you create a system that causes the readout cluster to shut down, endangering the driver and passengers. Which illustrates the flip side of all this integration you're lauding - you've just created single points of failure that if they fail take down the entire system - and there are documented cases of small faults rendering a Tesla inoperable.
posted by NoxAeternum at 5:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [29 favorites]
What if you could combine it all into one heat pump that just transferred heat between different components as needed? What if while cooling the batteries, the waste heat pumped out of the batteries could be recycled to heat the cabin?
Well, you create a system that causes the readout cluster to shut down, endangering the driver and passengers. Which illustrates the flip side of all this integration you're lauding - you've just created single points of failure that if they fail take down the entire system - and there are documented cases of small faults rendering a Tesla inoperable.
posted by NoxAeternum at 5:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [29 favorites]
There are few who make my blood boil like Musk does. Tucker. Kanye. That's it, I think.
Yes, I hate Trump, Cruz, MTG, and many others, but I don't have quite the visceral reaction to them that I do to those three.
posted by dobbs at 5:38 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
Yes, I hate Trump, Cruz, MTG, and many others, but I don't have quite the visceral reaction to them that I do to those three.
posted by dobbs at 5:38 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
It is tempting to characterize Elon as a talentless hack failson except... He's not stupid. He's certainly not as clever as he believes he is, but he's clever enough to do things like recognize the value of an early Tesla and position it as a luxury brand while investing in automation-first manufacturing.
But that cleverness is the same kind that made PayPal successful - see the opportunity and take it because you have the capital and freedom to do so.
Is he out of his depth now? Probably. Maybe he thinks he's playing n-dimensional chess but is making the classic mistake of founders who were both clever and very lucky discounting the ratio of luck down to zero in their self-image.
He's easily revealed he's a pretty terrible human, but he's not dumb, and he has inspired many engineering realities that nobody else managed to achieve. He did it often by ignoring or out spending the ethical or structural long term impacts. That makes him a huckster, but not a dummy.
posted by abulafa at 6:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
But that cleverness is the same kind that made PayPal successful - see the opportunity and take it because you have the capital and freedom to do so.
Is he out of his depth now? Probably. Maybe he thinks he's playing n-dimensional chess but is making the classic mistake of founders who were both clever and very lucky discounting the ratio of luck down to zero in their self-image.
He's easily revealed he's a pretty terrible human, but he's not dumb, and he has inspired many engineering realities that nobody else managed to achieve. He did it often by ignoring or out spending the ethical or structural long term impacts. That makes him a huckster, but not a dummy.
posted by abulafa at 6:01 AM on July 9, 2022 [9 favorites]
Despite all those advantages the Cybertruck is now at least two years behind schedule. Ford is projected to build 150K electric F150s this year (and sold 3/4s of a million F150s last year in the US alone despite supply chain issues).
Tesla doesn't make good appliance cars relative to other manufacturers. (IDK about luxury veblen goods because honestly I don't understand that market). With Musk running things I don't think they can make good appliance cars and I don't see them dumping Musk. Old school car companies realized a long time ago that they can't be experts in everything. Significant choice in the electric car market is going to eat their lunch because all thosecontracted experts interdependencies will allow Ford/GM/Honda/Toyota/Nissan/Kia/VAG to sell competitive vehicles for less money. I think that will ultimately be their undoing reducing them to an also ran small market niche company owned by someone else.
It's going to be hilarious if FCA buys Tesla and markets the Jeep Wrangler powered by Tesla.
posted by Mitheral at 6:11 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Tesla doesn't make good appliance cars relative to other manufacturers. (IDK about luxury veblen goods because honestly I don't understand that market). With Musk running things I don't think they can make good appliance cars and I don't see them dumping Musk. Old school car companies realized a long time ago that they can't be experts in everything. Significant choice in the electric car market is going to eat their lunch because all those
It's going to be hilarious if FCA buys Tesla and markets the Jeep Wrangler powered by Tesla.
posted by Mitheral at 6:11 AM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Musk became a joke to many when he rocketed one of his cars to Mars or somewhere. He didn't have enough taste to send an obelisk. I think of the rich man flamethrower toy he invented every time I see a devastating wildfire. Then he converted to Republicanism and tried to buy Twitter to bring Trump back. I can only imagine this is his calculated fast track to influence, but crypto-shilling failed him so far. Then suddenly people started to notice he has been breeding with employees using surrogates. Now he says China, and the world, are vastly underpopulated, as if he solved world hunger or something. This is a serious claim and Musk cites the movie Idiocracy as a serious footnote, though missing the point. There is only one way to have an intelligent future, and it means less inequality, less hunger and less environmental degradation, not just a few more smart people in the mix (who are successful because they moderated).
posted by Brian B. at 6:36 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 6:36 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
They make most of their money selling emissions credits to real auto makers.
Interesting article but that's a misleading characterization (as is the article's headline). It looks at 2021Q1 where Tesla took in $518M in revenue selling emissions credits from a total of $10.4B revenue. The company's profit was $533M (or $438M GAAP) so yes, the revenue from emissions sales was about the total profit. But that's not really the right comparison; emissions sales was about 5% of revenue.
But the article does highlight an Elon Musk theme: how very good his companies are at capturing government subsidies. SpaceX is basically one giant government-funded program. Tesla gets all sorts of electric car subsidies, both directly and indirectly. Some of that is productive and genuine. Some of it is scammy, like the battery swap demo to exploit a poorly written California regulation. That gimmick netted them a guessed $100M for a temporary setup with diesel generators.
I think on the balance SpaceX and Tesla are good companies, I'm glad their products exist. I'm posting this comment via Starlink, itself poised to get a $900M FCC subsidy. But the guy in charge of them is a jackass. And there's a lot more failures than acknowledged. The SolarCity acquisition is a particular mess (and sure looked like a fraud to me, although he won that lawsuit). But the subsequent Tesla solar roof program has been an abject disaster so far.
posted by Nelson at 6:37 AM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
Interesting article but that's a misleading characterization (as is the article's headline). It looks at 2021Q1 where Tesla took in $518M in revenue selling emissions credits from a total of $10.4B revenue. The company's profit was $533M (or $438M GAAP) so yes, the revenue from emissions sales was about the total profit. But that's not really the right comparison; emissions sales was about 5% of revenue.
But the article does highlight an Elon Musk theme: how very good his companies are at capturing government subsidies. SpaceX is basically one giant government-funded program. Tesla gets all sorts of electric car subsidies, both directly and indirectly. Some of that is productive and genuine. Some of it is scammy, like the battery swap demo to exploit a poorly written California regulation. That gimmick netted them a guessed $100M for a temporary setup with diesel generators.
I think on the balance SpaceX and Tesla are good companies, I'm glad their products exist. I'm posting this comment via Starlink, itself poised to get a $900M FCC subsidy. But the guy in charge of them is a jackass. And there's a lot more failures than acknowledged. The SolarCity acquisition is a particular mess (and sure looked like a fraud to me, although he won that lawsuit). But the subsequent Tesla solar roof program has been an abject disaster so far.
posted by Nelson at 6:37 AM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
re: Tesla-- While the engineering advances mentioned by xdvesper above are impressive, and while I truly believe that Tesla brought the rest of the auto industry kicking and screaming into the EV space (transport accounts for 37% of global carbon emissions!), Musk himself recently said:
As the Twitter acquisition, as others have mentioned, its difficult to imagine he wasn't serious given the earlier stock investment and the securing of financing. It may have been impulsive but it wasn't a con. The waiving of due diligence shows to me that he wanted to make this happen as quickly as possible. Then the NASDAQ tanked and suddenly it was a terrible deal for him. He's been trying to weasel his way out of it for at least a month.
posted by gwint at 6:47 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
"But the overwhelming focus is on solving full self-driving," Musk said in an interview with the YouTube channel "Tesla Owners Silicon Valley," published Tuesday.He recognizes that every car manufacturer is pivoting to EVs, so self-driving is the main potential differentiator going forward. But the timeline for reaching full self-driving is obviously much much farther out than he thought (and plenty of other companies are trying to solve the problem.) So yes, Tesla seems quite over-valued, even after the latest correction.
"That's essential. It's really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money or worth basically zero," he said.
As the Twitter acquisition, as others have mentioned, its difficult to imagine he wasn't serious given the earlier stock investment and the securing of financing. It may have been impulsive but it wasn't a con. The waiving of due diligence shows to me that he wanted to make this happen as quickly as possible. Then the NASDAQ tanked and suddenly it was a terrible deal for him. He's been trying to weasel his way out of it for at least a month.
posted by gwint at 6:47 AM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
I kind of liked this "Elon Musk" character at first, but Mike Myers has taken the gag way too far.
posted by Faint of Butt at 7:35 AM on July 9, 2022 [23 favorites]
posted by Faint of Butt at 7:35 AM on July 9, 2022 [23 favorites]
Well, you create a system that causes the readout cluster to shut down, endangering the driver and passengers.
Come on, let's not kid ourselves - every automaker has quality problems. No one bothers to write an article when a GM touchscreen crashes, but when Tesla has a failure it makes the news.
Tesla scores slightly above the industry average in BEV vehicle quality, on the only industry quality benchmark that matters - the JD Powers IQS. Sure, we can say that Tesla's are objectively poor quality, but the reality is their competition is often worse...
In any case, I'd argue that simplifying the design pays off in vastly improved reliability if they can nail the manufacturing quality right. Instead of having 5 independent points of failures each of which have the potential to disable the car, you can focus on getting just 1 component to 99.999% reliability.
posted by xdvesper at 7:48 AM on July 9, 2022
Come on, let's not kid ourselves - every automaker has quality problems. No one bothers to write an article when a GM touchscreen crashes, but when Tesla has a failure it makes the news.
Tesla scores slightly above the industry average in BEV vehicle quality, on the only industry quality benchmark that matters - the JD Powers IQS. Sure, we can say that Tesla's are objectively poor quality, but the reality is their competition is often worse...
In any case, I'd argue that simplifying the design pays off in vastly improved reliability if they can nail the manufacturing quality right. Instead of having 5 independent points of failures each of which have the potential to disable the car, you can focus on getting just 1 component to 99.999% reliability.
posted by xdvesper at 7:48 AM on July 9, 2022
Arguing about the quality or not of Tesla things is a distraction; like everything else Musk states he's going to do, it never meets his goals, because Musk is a classic talentless manager who over-promises and under delivers.
posted by The River Ivel at 7:59 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by The River Ivel at 7:59 AM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
Matt Levine's newsletter on Musk's withdrawal (paywall) is out. Levine has a lot of depth in his reporting and also a really lovely tone of snark just perfect for the absurdity of this. Bottom line he concludes Twitter has a reasonably good chance in Delaware court for some sort of positive outcome, but maybe the $1B fee and not enforcing the full acquisition.
To the discussion above about how Musk's wealth and contempt for the law is out of control, Levine says
To the discussion above about how Musk's wealth and contempt for the law is out of control, Levine says
The fact that Musk is working in such bad faith here — that he seems so unconcerned with law and the contract he signed — cuts both ways. On the one hand, it will certainly annoy a Delaware chancellor; Delaware likes to think of itself as a stable place for corporate deals, with predictable law and binding contracts, and Musk’s antics undermine that. On the other hand it might intimidate a Delaware chancellor: What if the court orders Musk to close the deal and he says no? They’re not gonna put him in Chancery jail. The guy is pretty contemptuous of legal authority; he thinks he is above the law and he might be right. A showdown between Musk and a judge might undermine Delaware corporate law more than letting him weasel out of the deal would.posted by Nelson at 8:08 AM on July 9, 2022 [17 favorites]
Archived version of Matt Levine's article linked directly above.
posted by Brian B. at 9:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 9:20 AM on July 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
Send yourself to mars!!!
Hey man, he's gotfive ten kids to feed
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
Hey man, he's got
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:33 AM on July 9, 2022 [12 favorites]
It's going to be hilarious if FCA buys Tesla and markets the Jeep Wrangler powered by Tesla.
Something like this is decently likely within a decade I think, possibly even 5 years if Musk left-turns again and decides that it's all about SpaceX and StarLink. Selling internet access without georestrictions has a decent chance to be a real licence to print money, so he won't need Tesla as a cash/equity source any more.
posted by bonehead at 9:50 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Something like this is decently likely within a decade I think, possibly even 5 years if Musk left-turns again and decides that it's all about SpaceX and StarLink. Selling internet access without georestrictions has a decent chance to be a real licence to print money, so he won't need Tesla as a cash/equity source any more.
posted by bonehead at 9:50 AM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I will be surprised if Musk gets out of this for only a billion dollars. Twitter has been very careful to meet the terms of the acquisition agreement, so has a very good case for enforcing specific performance. I don't think that will happen, either. There has to be a cash settlement at which Twitter thinks they will be better off taking money and keeping the company. My wild ass guess is somewhere north of $10 billion.
Elon is a total asshat to be sure, but Tesla and SpaceX are dragging their respective industries into the goddamned future out of their moribund state. They (or something like them) were necessary. SpaceX continues to be necessary. Nobody else is reusing even parts of their rockets. Nobody else is anywhere near being able to offer decent Internet to currently unserved areas. The vast majority of the US could be covered in fiber pretty shortly if the government would stop allowing companies to waste the subsidies they've been getting for over 20 years now, but much of the rest of the world and the depths of Alaska don't have that luxury.
Tesla, as others have noted, could go away tomorrow and it wouldn't really have much impact on the industry. Tesla showed governments that EVs were completely doable and sparked a bunch of zero-emissions laws that forced other automakers into giving a shit.
I fucking hate the F150 and its gigantism, but there is no denying that it represents a new paradigm where future vehicles are totally normal but just happen to be EVs. Hyundai's Ioniq 5 EV is another example. This is unlike Teslas which are weird just to be weird or the Bolt which was poorly packaged and used thin seats that were more like sitting in an airline seat and other BS nobody wanted for no particular reason. If Tesla went bust tomorrow, Panasonic would start selling cells to other people, other companies would buy up the lithium rights Tesla owns, and after a short interregnum the overall industry trends would continue.
In short, I think Elon is going to be paying quite a lot of money to Twitter sometime in the next couple of years, SpaceX remains important, at least for now, and Tesla is now overvalued both in monetary terms and usefulness to society.
posted by wierdo at 9:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
Elon is a total asshat to be sure, but Tesla and SpaceX are dragging their respective industries into the goddamned future out of their moribund state. They (or something like them) were necessary. SpaceX continues to be necessary. Nobody else is reusing even parts of their rockets. Nobody else is anywhere near being able to offer decent Internet to currently unserved areas. The vast majority of the US could be covered in fiber pretty shortly if the government would stop allowing companies to waste the subsidies they've been getting for over 20 years now, but much of the rest of the world and the depths of Alaska don't have that luxury.
Tesla, as others have noted, could go away tomorrow and it wouldn't really have much impact on the industry. Tesla showed governments that EVs were completely doable and sparked a bunch of zero-emissions laws that forced other automakers into giving a shit.
I fucking hate the F150 and its gigantism, but there is no denying that it represents a new paradigm where future vehicles are totally normal but just happen to be EVs. Hyundai's Ioniq 5 EV is another example. This is unlike Teslas which are weird just to be weird or the Bolt which was poorly packaged and used thin seats that were more like sitting in an airline seat and other BS nobody wanted for no particular reason. If Tesla went bust tomorrow, Panasonic would start selling cells to other people, other companies would buy up the lithium rights Tesla owns, and after a short interregnum the overall industry trends would continue.
In short, I think Elon is going to be paying quite a lot of money to Twitter sometime in the next couple of years, SpaceX remains important, at least for now, and Tesla is now overvalued both in monetary terms and usefulness to society.
posted by wierdo at 9:52 AM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
I don't get why Twitter wants him to buy them when it didn't seem like they particularly wanted him to anyway. I always had the feeling that they were just like, caving in because they couldn't stop him. Like, take the billion, be happy, be rid of him already.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:58 AM on July 9, 2022
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:58 AM on July 9, 2022
The board wanted him, Jack wanted him, the shareholders wanted the stock buy price. It's just the peasants employees that were skeptical.
posted by gwint at 10:04 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by gwint at 10:04 AM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Also Musk isn't offering the Billion. He's trying to weasel out by claiming the company isn't what it claimed to be even though he insisted on proceeding without due diligence. Probably because he figured he could cancel at any time consequence free because he always has.
posted by Mitheral at 10:07 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 10:07 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
I don't get why Twitter wants him to buy them when it didn't seem like they particularly wanted him to anyway
Musk overbid for Twitter so much that the Twitter board has an obligation to do everything it can to close the deal and get that huge pile of money Musk promised. They must fight as hard as possible to close the deal.
If Twitter is fighting Musk on specific performance, all Twitter shareholders are also fighting Musk for that reason. If the Twitter board or management does not try to close the sale, all those shareholder will turn around and sue the board. And I bet the larger shareholders have some fierce, well-funded lawyers.
posted by ryanrs at 10:11 AM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
Musk overbid for Twitter so much that the Twitter board has an obligation to do everything it can to close the deal and get that huge pile of money Musk promised. They must fight as hard as possible to close the deal.
If Twitter is fighting Musk on specific performance, all Twitter shareholders are also fighting Musk for that reason. If the Twitter board or management does not try to close the sale, all those shareholder will turn around and sue the board. And I bet the larger shareholders have some fierce, well-funded lawyers.
posted by ryanrs at 10:11 AM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
I'm sure there is some sort of dark pattern to leave a purchase of twitter, just like their users face.
posted by nickggully at 10:35 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by nickggully at 10:35 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
much of the rest of the world and the depths of Alaska don't have that luxury
Although I'm aware Starlink will certainly plan to launch or otherwise fill in to cover more area, they haven't yet, and in fact leave all of Alaska and most of Canada without service.
(I had the same inspiring sensation about Starlink until I got in line to buy it.)
posted by abulafa at 11:12 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
Although I'm aware Starlink will certainly plan to launch or otherwise fill in to cover more area, they haven't yet, and in fact leave all of Alaska and most of Canada without service.
(I had the same inspiring sensation about Starlink until I got in line to buy it.)
posted by abulafa at 11:12 AM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
The fun part is that Musk probably thought that any fuckery could be tied up in years of litigation before settling out of court for a trifling fee. Nope. Delaware is warp speed for this sort of shit. They'll get through litigation in a matter of months. Musk may have overplayed his hand. Don't try to buy companies while high, kids.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:24 AM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:24 AM on July 9, 2022 [11 favorites]
There are very good odds that he winds up saddled with Twitter at a loss. He may be able to renegotiate the price, but he's got a tough road to convince the overlords in Delaware that his BS about bots is legit enough to back out for $1bill. There's a good chance he can't back out.
posted by Chuffy at 12:15 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Chuffy at 12:15 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
I wonder if this will affect Musk's ability to do deals in the future.
Future contracts with anyone paying attention will likely have higher penalties (given Musk's looseness with money) and more emphasis on solid legal lock-in.
posted by filtergik at 12:21 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Future contracts with anyone paying attention will likely have higher penalties (given Musk's looseness with money) and more emphasis on solid legal lock-in.
posted by filtergik at 12:21 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Musk wants to force this to go to court so that he will be in the hook for the fees. And then what? Who will enforce these fees? Whatever regulatory body gets involved will sue and then it will become a federal case that gets appealed up through federal court until the SEC ot FTC loses in a 6-3 decision that guts that regulatory body.
posted by kzin602 at 12:34 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by kzin602 at 12:34 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
Although I'm aware Starlink will certainly plan to launch or otherwise fill in to cover more area, they haven't yet, and in fact leave all of Alaska and most of Canada without service.
SpaceX will be starting the deployment of the group 3 shell within the next month or so, which will cover the polar regions. At the rate they have been launching Starlink missions of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see operational service by the end of the year.
Granted, it will be a while longer before the most remote regions of the planet are covered since they still aren't using inter-satellite relay operationally. I do believe the group 3 satellites (including the existing test satellites) actually have the hardware, unlike the majority of the current constellation. That same technology should help with some of the capacity and intermittency issues in some currently served areas as well, though that will be a gradual process as new shells and replacement satellites for existing shells are launched.
I certainly don't want to discount the possibility that OneWeb and Kuiper get their shit together, but OneWeb is stalled at the moment and Kuiper still hasn't deployed anything and this is one business in which things that don't already exist often never happen no matter how solid the plans seem.
posted by wierdo at 1:19 PM on July 9, 2022
SpaceX will be starting the deployment of the group 3 shell within the next month or so, which will cover the polar regions. At the rate they have been launching Starlink missions of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see operational service by the end of the year.
Granted, it will be a while longer before the most remote regions of the planet are covered since they still aren't using inter-satellite relay operationally. I do believe the group 3 satellites (including the existing test satellites) actually have the hardware, unlike the majority of the current constellation. That same technology should help with some of the capacity and intermittency issues in some currently served areas as well, though that will be a gradual process as new shells and replacement satellites for existing shells are launched.
I certainly don't want to discount the possibility that OneWeb and Kuiper get their shit together, but OneWeb is stalled at the moment and Kuiper still hasn't deployed anything and this is one business in which things that don't already exist often never happen no matter how solid the plans seem.
posted by wierdo at 1:19 PM on July 9, 2022
Dave Pell lays out all the fuckups of Jack Dorsey, Parag Agrawal, and the Twitter Board.
I’d like to provide a brief overview of how Twitter users and investors were betrayed, what makes me think this was all a set up, and why the current CEO and board must go.posted by Nelson at 1:22 PM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
None of this changes what a dumpster fire Twitter is.
posted by terrapin at 1:25 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by terrapin at 1:25 PM on July 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
The LVCC Loop alone is so ridiculous that I can't believe anyone would still believe or even listen to anything Elon Musk says.
posted by FJT at 2:11 PM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by FJT at 2:11 PM on July 9, 2022 [6 favorites]
Why are we not hunting him for sport?
Because watching him get sucked into all kinds of legal traps and spring every one because of his ego is going to be more fun.
Cite?
posted by Lyme Drop at 2:12 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
Because watching him get sucked into all kinds of legal traps and spring every one because of his ego is going to be more fun.
Cite?
posted by Lyme Drop at 2:12 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
Whatever regulatory body gets involved will sue and then it will become a federal case that gets appealed up through federal court until the SEC ot FTC loses in a 6-3 decision that guts that regulatory body.
If the Supreme Court gutted the DE court of chancery the line of corporations hiring hitmen to assassinate them would stretch past Luna.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:13 PM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
If the Supreme Court gutted the DE court of chancery the line of corporations hiring hitmen to assassinate them would stretch past Luna.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:13 PM on July 9, 2022 [8 favorites]
375k trucks. Be generous and say only 15k miles and only count the first year. Go with 20 miles per gallon and that is 375000 x 15000 / 20 = 281,250,000 gallons of gas not burned or 562.5 billion pounds of CO2 not emmitted. Ya, it would make a difference.
posted by Mitheral at 2:14 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 2:14 PM on July 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
The thing I like about Tesla is that if I ever want to ride in one I can simply order an uber. Better than a Prius - would taxi around in them again.
There a couple of Rivian owners near me and now they turn *a lot* of heads when they are parked up at the chargers. People love pickups I guess.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:18 PM on July 9, 2022
There a couple of Rivian owners near me and now they turn *a lot* of heads when they are parked up at the chargers. People love pickups I guess.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 2:18 PM on July 9, 2022
Dave Pell lays out all the fuckups of Jack Dorsey, Parag Agrawal, and the Twitter Board.
Musk’s offer was well above the market price. He demonstrated that he had financing lined up. He signed a binding agreement with no outs and no strings attached. It doesn’t take a 14 tweet thread to explain why management and the board accepted the offer.
And also everyone involved in this whole thing is a creep.
posted by chrchr at 2:18 PM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
Musk’s offer was well above the market price. He demonstrated that he had financing lined up. He signed a binding agreement with no outs and no strings attached. It doesn’t take a 14 tweet thread to explain why management and the board accepted the offer.
And also everyone involved in this whole thing is a creep.
posted by chrchr at 2:18 PM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
This whole affair has strong "Kramer backing out of the bet with Jerry about redoing his apartment with Levels" energy.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 2:47 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 2:47 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Oh yeah and before the merger offer Musk had already sneakily acquired a lot of Twitter stock in the open market and was becoming a thorn in the side of the board. They were going to have to do some kind of deal with Musk anyway.
posted by chrchr at 2:55 PM on July 9, 2022
posted by chrchr at 2:55 PM on July 9, 2022
This is like a celebrity divorce. Elon Musk signed a horrible deal and Twitter is gonna get paid. A billion dollars is the low end of what they will get in the settlement. It would also be nice if the SEC and other regulators stepped in and threw Musk in jail over his shenanigans and blatant market manipulation. He should serve as much time as Martha Stewart.
posted by interogative mood at 3:30 PM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 3:30 PM on July 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Bloomberg has a pretty entertaining analysis of the situation.
posted by automatronic at 3:57 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by automatronic at 3:57 PM on July 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
None of this changes what a dumpster fire Twitter is.
This is true, but it prevents Musk from making it worse with his "free speech absolutism."
posted by JHarris at 9:42 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
This is true, but it prevents Musk from making it worse with his "free speech absolutism."
posted by JHarris at 9:42 PM on July 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Mod note: Many deleted. Please just make a new post if you want to discuss electric cars.
posted by taz (staff) at 10:24 PM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 10:24 PM on July 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
One can admire some of the things that Musk has done—he probably moved the ball forward on space launch significantly with SpaceX; Tesla probably is owed some real credit for getting Americans interested in electric cars—but also simultaneously believe that having our society depend on the whims of a fractious, self-involved billionaire dudebro with the emotional intelligence of yeast is not a very good method of resource allocation.
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:06 PM on July 9, 2022 [37 favorites]
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:06 PM on July 9, 2022 [37 favorites]
Anything that is bad for Elon Musk is good for humanity.
posted by Dysk at 1:26 AM on July 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 1:26 AM on July 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
None of this changes what a dumpster fire Twitter is.
After Musk turns it into his own take on Parler, people will be rhapsodising about the halcyon days of the old Twitter and all that we have lost in the same tones as they do about LiveJournal/Geocities/blogs/USENET/IRC.
posted by acb at 4:05 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
After Musk turns it into his own take on Parler, people will be rhapsodising about the halcyon days of the old Twitter and all that we have lost in the same tones as they do about LiveJournal/Geocities/blogs/USENET/IRC.
posted by acb at 4:05 AM on July 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
Even Donald Trump is dunking on Elon. At his fascist rally in Alaska last night:
posted by Nelson at 6:44 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
So he’s another bullshit artist, but he’s not going to be buying it. He’s not going to be buying it. Although he might later, who the hell knows what’s going to happen? He’s got a pretty rotten contract. I looked at his contract. Not a good contract.Trump said some other mean things about Musk too. See here or here.
posted by Nelson at 6:44 AM on July 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Well, if it isn't the narcissism of minor differences...
posted by acb at 8:16 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:16 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
He never intended to buy Twitter. When are people going to stop believing everything this fraud says because he's a GeNiuS?
Agreed. If we see him as a grifter or naughty kid thinking himself all powerful, then I believe he imagined Twitter stock to soar on his involvement, putting the board in the position to regret selling it, letting him off the hook with just the proceeds and the billion penalty. He would also get to play the victim, like Trump, which really works best as manipulation in a predator culture. He was testing the dumb waters with bitcoin and dogecoin by doing the same thing, because before that all he had to do to make the stock soar at Tesla was announce a future announcement to keep everyone talking and holding his stock. He learned that to be his power. Taking Twitter private and putting Trump back in never made any sense other than distracting people away his gambit. The problem is that Tesla, dogecoin and bitcoin are mostly championed by younger men who want to be Musk and who collude on Reddit, not Twitter. Twitter is an institutional investment that is nothing new.
posted by Brian B. at 9:35 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Agreed. If we see him as a grifter or naughty kid thinking himself all powerful, then I believe he imagined Twitter stock to soar on his involvement, putting the board in the position to regret selling it, letting him off the hook with just the proceeds and the billion penalty. He would also get to play the victim, like Trump, which really works best as manipulation in a predator culture. He was testing the dumb waters with bitcoin and dogecoin by doing the same thing, because before that all he had to do to make the stock soar at Tesla was announce a future announcement to keep everyone talking and holding his stock. He learned that to be his power. Taking Twitter private and putting Trump back in never made any sense other than distracting people away his gambit. The problem is that Tesla, dogecoin and bitcoin are mostly championed by younger men who want to be Musk and who collude on Reddit, not Twitter. Twitter is an institutional investment that is nothing new.
posted by Brian B. at 9:35 AM on July 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Musk isn't just anti union. He is massively anti worker rights in general (remember him telling his factory staff to ignore lock down or get fired?). I mean I bet every once and a while the Waltons call him up and say "Dude, come on."
posted by Mitheral at 5:03 PM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 5:03 PM on July 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Elon causing his lawyer another coronary.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:16 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:16 PM on July 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here
Aside from his fake "self-made billionaire" schtick, his driven anti-worker/anti-union approach, the endless false promises/grifting and the not always subtle racism and misogyny, what amazes you about the disdain?
posted by Chuffy at 2:56 PM on July 11, 2022 [22 favorites]
Aside from his fake "self-made billionaire" schtick, his driven anti-worker/anti-union approach, the endless false promises/grifting and the not always subtle racism and misogyny, what amazes you about the disdain?
posted by Chuffy at 2:56 PM on July 11, 2022 [22 favorites]
I'm amazed at the utter disdain for Elon Musk here
Then don't miss the Twitter thread two posts up. Spoiler: A car salesman in love with his face mocks his own integrity to take a victory lap for a legal strategy exposing his bad faith against a pending lawsuit that never loses in court. Followed by merciless ridicule of course. I can't wait to see his competitors and critics repurpose that meme to slam his product weaknesses.
posted by Brian B. at 3:43 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Then don't miss the Twitter thread two posts up. Spoiler: A car salesman in love with his face mocks his own integrity to take a victory lap for a legal strategy exposing his bad faith against a pending lawsuit that never loses in court. Followed by merciless ridicule of course. I can't wait to see his competitors and critics repurpose that meme to slam his product weaknesses.
posted by Brian B. at 3:43 PM on July 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Oh man, I thought that was some meme by a fanboy, not wisdom from the genius himself.
That asshole is going to force the court to make him buy twitter, just by being a smug shithead.
posted by ryanrs at 7:52 PM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
That asshole is going to force the court to make him buy twitter, just by being a smug shithead.
posted by ryanrs at 7:52 PM on July 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
How Elon Musk Damaged Twitter and Left It Worse Off.
“His engagement with Twitter took a severe toll on the company,” said Jason Goldman, a member of Twitter’s founding team who has also served on its board of directors. “Employees, advertisers and the market at large cannot have conviction in a company whose path is unknowable and which will now go to court to complete a transaction with a bad-faith actor.”posted by Nelson at 6:46 AM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Musk just wants to buy your mom now. Oh look out! (He came in through the bathroom window.)
posted by Oyéah at 8:45 AM on July 12, 2022
posted by Oyéah at 8:45 AM on July 12, 2022
Twitter have now unsurprisingly filed suit.
Some fun notes from the filing:
"Musk’s exit strategy is a model of hypocrisy. One of the chief reasons Musk cited on March 31, 2022 for wanting to buy Twitter was to rid it of the “[c]rypto spam” he viewed as a “major blight on the user experience.” Musk said he needed to take the company private because, according to him, purging spam would otherwise be commercially impractical. In his press release announcing the deal on April 25, 2022, Musk raised a clarion call to “defeat[] the spam bots.” But when the market declined and the fixed-price deal became less attractive,
Musk shifted his narrative, suddenly demanding “verification” that spam was not a serious problem on Twitter’s platform, and claiming a burning need to conduct “diligence” he had expressly forsworn."
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:26 PM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
Some fun notes from the filing:
"Musk’s exit strategy is a model of hypocrisy. One of the chief reasons Musk cited on March 31, 2022 for wanting to buy Twitter was to rid it of the “[c]rypto spam” he viewed as a “major blight on the user experience.” Musk said he needed to take the company private because, according to him, purging spam would otherwise be commercially impractical. In his press release announcing the deal on April 25, 2022, Musk raised a clarion call to “defeat[] the spam bots.” But when the market declined and the fixed-price deal became less attractive,
Musk shifted his narrative, suddenly demanding “verification” that spam was not a serious problem on Twitter’s platform, and claiming a burning need to conduct “diligence” he had expressly forsworn."
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 3:26 PM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
That filing was straight fire. Twitter are not fucking around.
He should be worried as hell about specific performance and I would not be surprised if he's shitting his pants over it. The overwhelming majority of his net worth is tied up in Tesla's value. If he's forced to go through with the acquisition he's going to be testing the limits of the market's liquidity for Tesla shares. In an economy where free money has effectively vanished over the past couple of months. Plus all of his outstanding loans (which he uses to get around being taxed for his unrealized gains) are collateralized by Tesla stock. If/when he gets margin called on them shit will truly be hitting the fan.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:46 PM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
He should be worried as hell about specific performance and I would not be surprised if he's shitting his pants over it. The overwhelming majority of his net worth is tied up in Tesla's value. If he's forced to go through with the acquisition he's going to be testing the limits of the market's liquidity for Tesla shares. In an economy where free money has effectively vanished over the past couple of months. Plus all of his outstanding loans (which he uses to get around being taxed for his unrealized gains) are collateralized by Tesla stock. If/when he gets margin called on them shit will truly be hitting the fan.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:46 PM on July 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
If I understand correctly (and I very well may not) he's potentially on the hook for the margin of current stock price and his offer under the specific performance clause.
So in theory the judge can demand he pay twitter $16 Billion (maybe as well as the termination fee of another $1 Billion?) and he doesn't even get to own Twitter?
Is that right, because that would be funny.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:07 PM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
So in theory the judge can demand he pay twitter $16 Billion (maybe as well as the termination fee of another $1 Billion?) and he doesn't even get to own Twitter?
Is that right, because that would be funny.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:07 PM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
(that is in fact, not quite right)
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:16 PM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 5:16 PM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
I just hope Musk doesn't turn this thing into a battle to the death over the legitimacy of the Chancery Court. If he does some stunt like pulling out a bong during a videoconference court appearance, the judge just might make him buy Twitter.
posted by ryanrs at 6:01 PM on July 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanrs at 6:01 PM on July 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Schadenfreude aside it could be pretty bad if he were in control of twitter though, right?
posted by trig at 9:29 PM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by trig at 9:29 PM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yes, it will hasten the destruction of American democracy.
posted by ryanrs at 9:55 PM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 9:55 PM on July 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
People go back and forth about what will make them leave Twitter, but I've said, and I mean it, that if Trump comes back I am gone. That is something Musk has specifically said he'll do, so, there is that.
Twitter is important because there is nothing else like it with as many people, and for no other reason. Musk buying it could very well be the push people need to migrate to Mastodon, or for someone else to make a version of Twitter that isn't terrible. It probably won't take unless a lot of people jump at once, but Musk taking it over could well be the kind of public kerfuffle that could spark that.
posted by JHarris at 10:46 PM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Twitter is important because there is nothing else like it with as many people, and for no other reason. Musk buying it could very well be the push people need to migrate to Mastodon, or for someone else to make a version of Twitter that isn't terrible. It probably won't take unless a lot of people jump at once, but Musk taking it over could well be the kind of public kerfuffle that could spark that.
posted by JHarris at 10:46 PM on July 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Tesla and SpaceX are dragging their respective industries into the goddamned future out of their moribund state. They (or something like them) were necessary. SpaceX continues to be necessary. Nobody else is reusing even parts of their rockets. Nobody else is anywhere near being able to offer decent Internet to currently unserved areas
SpaceX is likely a problem, not a solution:
As SpaceX's Starlink Ramps Up, So Could Light Pollution
The constellation of internet-providing satellites is growing. Now the company and its rivals must avoid creating brighter night skies and space debris.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:11 AM on July 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
SpaceX is likely a problem, not a solution:
As SpaceX's Starlink Ramps Up, So Could Light Pollution
The constellation of internet-providing satellites is growing. Now the company and its rivals must avoid creating brighter night skies and space debris.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:11 AM on July 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Nobody else is anywhere near being able to offer decent Internet to currently unserved areas
Nor is Starlink. They pretty much cover the US and western Europe - not exactly the areas of the world with the least pre-existing service. It is not an efficient or good way of providing that access, and there are many reasons to think it cannot scale to the kind of mass usage that meaningfully plugging global gaps in internet access would require.
And even if everything worked, slightly wider commodity internet access is not worth the light pollution and Kessler syndrome.
posted by Dysk at 1:30 AM on July 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Nor is Starlink. They pretty much cover the US and western Europe - not exactly the areas of the world with the least pre-existing service. It is not an efficient or good way of providing that access, and there are many reasons to think it cannot scale to the kind of mass usage that meaningfully plugging global gaps in internet access would require.
And even if everything worked, slightly wider commodity internet access is not worth the light pollution and Kessler syndrome.
posted by Dysk at 1:30 AM on July 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's the problem with shareholder value as metric of a business's welfare: it can turn the duty to protect a business's interest into the duty to slaughter it profitably.
posted by acb at 1:43 AM on July 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by acb at 1:43 AM on July 13, 2022 [3 favorites]
People go back and forth about what will make them leave Twitter, but I've said, and I mean it, that if Trump comes back I am gone. That is something Musk has specifically said he'll do, so, there is that.
Less likely than it used to be, as they aren't friends anymore. The two of them have been sniping at each other on social media like the ridiculous children they are.
posted by rifflesby at 6:49 AM on July 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Less likely than it used to be, as they aren't friends anymore. The two of them have been sniping at each other on social media like the ridiculous children they are.
posted by rifflesby at 6:49 AM on July 13, 2022 [1 favorite]
Matt Levine on the Twitter lawsuit (paywall buster).
The factual reporting new-to-me is Twitter is seeking a rapid trial to still get the deal to close in October. Wow! Otherwise it's the usual Levine close analysis with humor. He highlights the way Twitter tears apart Musk's three stated pretexts for walking out of the deal. Also this really dismal summary of the state of things
The factual reporting new-to-me is Twitter is seeking a rapid trial to still get the deal to close in October. Wow! Otherwise it's the usual Levine close analysis with humor. He highlights the way Twitter tears apart Musk's three stated pretexts for walking out of the deal. Also this really dismal summary of the state of things
One can sympathize with Twitter co-founder Ev Williams. “I’m sure there are legal/fiduciary reasons” that the board has to push Musk to close, he tweeted. “But if I was still on the board, I’d be asking if we can just let this whole ugly episode blow over. Hopefully that’s the plan and this is ceremony.” I mean, no: The shareholders definitely want their $54.20 rather than nothing, and the board really does have to try hard to get it for them. Also it is bad to let Musk go around destroying public companies on a whim without any consequences; Twitter’s board has sort of a public-service obligation to try to make him pay. Still, Williams has a point. He co-founded Twitter, presumably he likes Twitter, and now Elon Musk is trying to destroy it, and Twitter’s board is trying to force him to follow through. What is the good outcome here?And his guess on the outcome
We talked on Monday about the realistic outcomes: The judge will let Musk off the hook for $1 billion (or less), or the judge will order him to close the deal and buy Twitter, or Musk and Twitter will settle for him buying Twitter at a lower price, or they’ll settle for him walking away at a higher price. The last of these seems the best to me — Twitter’s shareholders are compensated, Musk is held to his word, he doesn’t actually own Twitter — but it requires Musk to agree to settle. And to get him to settle, I do think Twitter needs to convince him that they will otherwise get specific performance and make him close the deal. Nobody wants that, I don’t think (I hope!), but they have to fight for it anyway.posted by Nelson at 10:10 AM on July 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
slightly wider commodity internet access is not worth the light pollution and Kessler syndrome
As I noted before, their polar orbit satellites are already beginning to launch and it's very likely they'll start commercial service in under a year, which will cover Alaska and northern Canada.
While it's certainly up for debate whether the impact to astronomy is worth it (if they do offer service globally in the next few years I would argue that it is), talk of Kessler syndrome is complete bullshit at the altitude the Starlink satellites operate at. Atmospheric drag will deorbit anything that isn't actively keeping itself in orbit within months. If they ever end up actually moving to launch the satellites at 1000+km that have been mooted, it will be a problem worth considering.
Regardless, Starlink is the least of the important things SpaceX is doing. Unless you are of the opinion that we simply shouldn't be launching things into space at all (in which case we're giving up GPS, weather and other earth observation satellites, TV service in much of the world, and a whole lot more) you should be able to see the benefit of reusability in lowering the cost of access to space. And they put their money where their mouth is on the "lowering the cost" part. Falcon 9 launches are substantially less expensive than other launchers.
Elon Musk has proven himself to be an absolute shit person, but sometimes shit people can do good things even if it isn't necessarily for the right reasons.
posted by wierdo at 10:31 AM on July 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
As I noted before, their polar orbit satellites are already beginning to launch and it's very likely they'll start commercial service in under a year, which will cover Alaska and northern Canada.
While it's certainly up for debate whether the impact to astronomy is worth it (if they do offer service globally in the next few years I would argue that it is), talk of Kessler syndrome is complete bullshit at the altitude the Starlink satellites operate at. Atmospheric drag will deorbit anything that isn't actively keeping itself in orbit within months. If they ever end up actually moving to launch the satellites at 1000+km that have been mooted, it will be a problem worth considering.
Regardless, Starlink is the least of the important things SpaceX is doing. Unless you are of the opinion that we simply shouldn't be launching things into space at all (in which case we're giving up GPS, weather and other earth observation satellites, TV service in much of the world, and a whole lot more) you should be able to see the benefit of reusability in lowering the cost of access to space. And they put their money where their mouth is on the "lowering the cost" part. Falcon 9 launches are substantially less expensive than other launchers.
Elon Musk has proven himself to be an absolute shit person, but sometimes shit people can do good things even if it isn't necessarily for the right reasons.
posted by wierdo at 10:31 AM on July 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Elon Musk has proven himself to be an absolute shit person, but sometimes shit people can do good things even if it isn't necessarily for the right reasons.
When it comes to SpaceX at least, you can just give Gwynne Shotwell credit for everything. Although she stood with Musk in pushing out some SpaceX employees who found him horrible, so not a great fix.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 10:37 AM on July 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
When it comes to SpaceX at least, you can just give Gwynne Shotwell credit for everything. Although she stood with Musk in pushing out some SpaceX employees who found him horrible, so not a great fix.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 10:37 AM on July 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
Kessler syndrome is maybe slightly the wrong term - Starlink satellites area so numerous and bright that they're a problem while they're still operational.
And again, there is a lot to indicate that the service won't scale. There is a lot of the world that is underserved with internet, covering Alaska and Northern Canada is a drop in the ocean, especially population-wise. It's a global impact for something that offers little prospect of global benefit. (All before considering questions of cost.)
posted by Dysk at 8:30 PM on July 13, 2022
And again, there is a lot to indicate that the service won't scale. There is a lot of the world that is underserved with internet, covering Alaska and Northern Canada is a drop in the ocean, especially population-wise. It's a global impact for something that offers little prospect of global benefit. (All before considering questions of cost.)
posted by Dysk at 8:30 PM on July 13, 2022
From the Onion: "Elon Musk Tries To Back Out Of Twitter Deal By Deleting App From Phone"
posted by Pronoiac at 11:08 PM on July 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Pronoiac at 11:08 PM on July 14, 2022 [5 favorites]
Patrick Boyle has put up another video on this mess. I recommend all three. Informative and full of dry wit.
posted by beowulf573 at 6:27 AM on July 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by beowulf573 at 6:27 AM on July 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Patrick Boyle has put up another video on this mess.
Paraphrasing, he says that there is basically only two outcomes in court, either pay the billion or buy the company at the agreed price. But he thinks the billion fee judgment will make Delaware law look like an easy pushover after the sabotage of Twitter, which is not their self-image. Musk will likely settle rather than cash in Tesla stock to buy, but for more than a billion, because Twitter stockholders will sue for anything less than the buyout or a profitable settlement. Either way damages are in play and people expect to get paid.
posted by Brian B. at 7:55 AM on July 15, 2022
Paraphrasing, he says that there is basically only two outcomes in court, either pay the billion or buy the company at the agreed price. But he thinks the billion fee judgment will make Delaware law look like an easy pushover after the sabotage of Twitter, which is not their self-image. Musk will likely settle rather than cash in Tesla stock to buy, but for more than a billion, because Twitter stockholders will sue for anything less than the buyout or a profitable settlement. Either way damages are in play and people expect to get paid.
posted by Brian B. at 7:55 AM on July 15, 2022
Patrick Boyle suggesting that banning Musk from Twitter would torture him makes me laugh and laugh.
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:41 AM on July 15, 2022
posted by jenfullmoon at 10:41 AM on July 15, 2022
Paraphrasing, he says that there is basically only two outcomes in court, either pay the billion or buy the company at the agreed price. But he thinks the billion fee judgment will make Delaware law look like an easy pushover after the sabotage of Twitter, which is not their self-image. Musk will likely settle rather than cash in Tesla stock to buy, but for more than a billion, because Twitter stockholders will sue for anything less than the buyout or a profitable settlement. Either way damages are in play and people expect to get paid.
This is also the Matt Levine position, incidentally. Two takes = consensus.
posted by Going To Maine at 11:03 AM on July 15, 2022
This is also the Matt Levine position, incidentally. Two takes = consensus.
posted by Going To Maine at 11:03 AM on July 15, 2022
Tanay Jaipuria has just pointed out that even just the $1 billion breakup fee from Musk would represent more net income than Twitter has made in its entire lifetime as a company. Despite two profitable years in 2018-2019, overall they've lost over $1.3bn and are still losing more every year.
I would be happy to watch them burn the entire company to the ground in the sole laser-focused single-minded pursuit of screwing over Elon Musk, and arguably doing so -- for almost any fraction of that $54.20 a share -- would be the most prudent action they can take for the interests of their shareholders.
posted by automatronic at 1:10 PM on July 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
I would be happy to watch them burn the entire company to the ground in the sole laser-focused single-minded pursuit of screwing over Elon Musk, and arguably doing so -- for almost any fraction of that $54.20 a share -- would be the most prudent action they can take for the interests of their shareholders.
posted by automatronic at 1:10 PM on July 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
> Brian B.: "Musk will likely settle rather than cash in Tesla stock to buy, but for more than a billion"
Yeah, this seems to be the consensus as the most sane outcome (which, of course, is no guarantee that it'll happen or is even the most probable result). However, there's one aspect that I'm very curious about. So, whenever we hear of settlements, especially involving big companies and/or sensitive matters, we hear that the terms of the settlement aren't public (e.g.: "settled for an undisclosed amount" or whatever). But in this case, given that Twitter is a public company and the amount of any settlement would have to be fairly substantial, I can't imagine they could get away with something like that. Like, I don't know if it would fly if Twitter could say "we settled with Elon for an undisclosed amount" and then file their next 10-Q with a "hey we just added $20B to our cash flow last quarter because of... uhhh... reasons." If it is indeed the case that this matter can't realistically be settled confidentially, then that would mean if Elon's gonna take an L here, he's gotta take it publicly. Which, in turn, then raises the question of whether or not Elon would just go through with the acquisition rather than be embarrassed in public.
posted by mhum at 2:38 PM on July 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Yeah, this seems to be the consensus as the most sane outcome (which, of course, is no guarantee that it'll happen or is even the most probable result). However, there's one aspect that I'm very curious about. So, whenever we hear of settlements, especially involving big companies and/or sensitive matters, we hear that the terms of the settlement aren't public (e.g.: "settled for an undisclosed amount" or whatever). But in this case, given that Twitter is a public company and the amount of any settlement would have to be fairly substantial, I can't imagine they could get away with something like that. Like, I don't know if it would fly if Twitter could say "we settled with Elon for an undisclosed amount" and then file their next 10-Q with a "hey we just added $20B to our cash flow last quarter because of... uhhh... reasons." If it is indeed the case that this matter can't realistically be settled confidentially, then that would mean if Elon's gonna take an L here, he's gotta take it publicly. Which, in turn, then raises the question of whether or not Elon would just go through with the acquisition rather than be embarrassed in public.
posted by mhum at 2:38 PM on July 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
So if I buy 1 share of TWTR at $38 today, will I get a "lol pwned spaceboy" dividend at some point?
posted by ryanrs at 10:36 AM on July 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanrs at 10:36 AM on July 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Also, can a stock-market-explainer describe what Tesla shorts are thinking/doing re. potential for specific performance? Is that a thing?
posted by ryanrs at 10:40 AM on July 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanrs at 10:40 AM on July 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
I think the idea there is that if Musk is compelled to complete the sale, the terms specify that quite a lot of the consideration be in actual cash.
Musk doesn't have billions in cash so he would need a fire sale of tesla stock in order to comply, which would of course cause the price to drop like a stone. Which of course means selling even more stock, which means further price drops and so on. It could potentially be literally ruinous.
Unless of course you've shorted the stock, in which case you could make a killing. And the more people expect that then the more people will short it, again driving the price down.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 12:53 PM on July 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Musk doesn't have billions in cash so he would need a fire sale of tesla stock in order to comply, which would of course cause the price to drop like a stone. Which of course means selling even more stock, which means further price drops and so on. It could potentially be literally ruinous.
Unless of course you've shorted the stock, in which case you could make a killing. And the more people expect that then the more people will short it, again driving the price down.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 12:53 PM on July 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Unless of course you've shorted the stock, in which case you could make a killing.
Yeah, remember when Elon callously told Bill Gates to fuck off when approached about collaborating on charitable work because Gates had a half billion dollar short on Tesla? Talk about humiliating.
posted by Room 101 at 2:56 PM on July 17, 2022
Yeah, remember when Elon callously told Bill Gates to fuck off when approached about collaborating on charitable work because Gates had a half billion dollar short on Tesla? Talk about humiliating.
posted by Room 101 at 2:56 PM on July 17, 2022
And now Elon is saying he needs more time to find the spam. This really feels like flailing at this point.
posted by NoxAeternum at 7:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by NoxAeternum at 7:58 AM on July 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
5 day trial booked for October.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:49 AM on July 19, 2022
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:49 AM on July 19, 2022
Which is a bad sign for Team Musk, as it pretty much points out that their "Twitter lied about the bots" argument isn't going to hold water.
posted by NoxAeternum at 10:17 AM on July 19, 2022
posted by NoxAeternum at 10:17 AM on July 19, 2022
Will he feign contrition, or lash out? Or maybe both, repeatedly!
(this is a nice B story to go along with the Jan 6 hearings, is what I'm saying)
posted by ryanrs at 1:44 PM on July 19, 2022
(this is a nice B story to go along with the Jan 6 hearings, is what I'm saying)
posted by ryanrs at 1:44 PM on July 19, 2022
At this point, I'd imagine his lawyers have told him that it's now shut the fuck up o'clock.
posted by NoxAeternum at 1:46 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by NoxAeternum at 1:46 PM on July 19, 2022 [5 favorites]
The funniest possible outcome for me is if Elon eventually agrees to a settlement and as soon as the check clears, Twitter deletes his account.
posted by mhum at 8:53 PM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by mhum at 8:53 PM on July 19, 2022 [6 favorites]
Musk doesn't have billions in cash so he would need a fire sale of tesla stock in order to comply
It seems to me that one possible settlement would be for Musk to sign over a whole bunch of Tesla stock to Twitter, in lieu of cash. That way he wouldn't have to liquidate a ton of shares on the open market, which would likely cause their value to crash, along with Musk's remaining net worth.
Of course, Twitter would only accept such a deal if the expected long-term value of the shares were significantly in excess of the $1B cash penalty specified in the contract, or whatever they think they can wring from Musk in cash under threat of compelled performance. (I don't think that Musk would actually go through with the buyout if the court seems to be leaning towards that remedy, nor do I think Twitter actually wants to end up owned by Musk; the threat of compelled performance would be a strong bargaining position for Twitter to use in a negotiated settlement to get more than $1B.)
So, e.g. if the terms of the sale were $44B, and the backout penalty is $1B, maybe they agree to $10B or $20B in Tesla shares with some sort of vesting schedule so that Twitter can't just immediately dump them. (I'm not sure how the financial mechanics of this would work. Maybe some sort of options?) There's probably a sweet spot that lets Musk keep the value of Tesla—and thus his net worth, which I suspect his ego is very much invested in—high, while still giving Twitter something of very significant value, and basically everyone shakes hands and walks away.
I've heard it speculated that Musk probably has other deals and financial instruments built on Tesla shares (i.e. he's borrowed against them for other dumbshit schemes), which might have penalties or other unpleasant triggers that fire if the value of Tesla stock drops too much. So beyond just his incentive to keep the share value high enough to stay "world's richest man" on paper, he could have very real financial reasons that make essentially giving away Tesla shares (with 'golden handcuffs' attached, i.e. a vesting schedule) preferable to liquidating a few billion worth in order to cash out.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:49 PM on July 20, 2022
It seems to me that one possible settlement would be for Musk to sign over a whole bunch of Tesla stock to Twitter, in lieu of cash. That way he wouldn't have to liquidate a ton of shares on the open market, which would likely cause their value to crash, along with Musk's remaining net worth.
Of course, Twitter would only accept such a deal if the expected long-term value of the shares were significantly in excess of the $1B cash penalty specified in the contract, or whatever they think they can wring from Musk in cash under threat of compelled performance. (I don't think that Musk would actually go through with the buyout if the court seems to be leaning towards that remedy, nor do I think Twitter actually wants to end up owned by Musk; the threat of compelled performance would be a strong bargaining position for Twitter to use in a negotiated settlement to get more than $1B.)
So, e.g. if the terms of the sale were $44B, and the backout penalty is $1B, maybe they agree to $10B or $20B in Tesla shares with some sort of vesting schedule so that Twitter can't just immediately dump them. (I'm not sure how the financial mechanics of this would work. Maybe some sort of options?) There's probably a sweet spot that lets Musk keep the value of Tesla—and thus his net worth, which I suspect his ego is very much invested in—high, while still giving Twitter something of very significant value, and basically everyone shakes hands and walks away.
I've heard it speculated that Musk probably has other deals and financial instruments built on Tesla shares (i.e. he's borrowed against them for other dumbshit schemes), which might have penalties or other unpleasant triggers that fire if the value of Tesla stock drops too much. So beyond just his incentive to keep the share value high enough to stay "world's richest man" on paper, he could have very real financial reasons that make essentially giving away Tesla shares (with 'golden handcuffs' attached, i.e. a vesting schedule) preferable to liquidating a few billion worth in order to cash out.
posted by Kadin2048 at 12:49 PM on July 20, 2022
But Tesla shares are wildly over valued. Their value is based off valuing Telsa as a tech stock and not as an auto stock.
But Tesla isn't a tech stock. They make revenue the same as Toyoto or GM, not in the same way a Google and Facebook. A lot of the value of the stock comes from Musk's personal image, and that's something that gets damaged if he's forced to give away a bunch of shares.
I think anyone is accepting Tesla shares in lieu of cash at stock market prices would be quite foolish to do so if they had any other option.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:16 PM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
But Tesla isn't a tech stock. They make revenue the same as Toyoto or GM, not in the same way a Google and Facebook. A lot of the value of the stock comes from Musk's personal image, and that's something that gets damaged if he's forced to give away a bunch of shares.
I think anyone is accepting Tesla shares in lieu of cash at stock market prices would be quite foolish to do so if they had any other option.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:16 PM on July 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Also Tesla just sold 75% of it's Bitcoin presumably at a fair loss.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:16 PM on July 20, 2022
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 4:16 PM on July 20, 2022
Electrek says "Tesla is still likely up on its $1.5 billion investment in the cryptocurrency."
posted by Nelson at 5:02 PM on July 20, 2022
posted by Nelson at 5:02 PM on July 20, 2022
Well, yeah—the negotiating point would have to be, what would Twitter value Tesla shares at? Probably not market price, for sure. But there might be a discount from market where Twitter's board could squint and say "well, that seems okay-ish", and is more money than they think they could wring out of Elon in cash—keeping in mind that they probably don't really want to become a Musky Enterprises property—while on the other side of the table, Elon thinks it's less than the hit to his net worth of liquidating the shares immediately in order to come up with the cash.
Maybe there's no overlap between those two numbers, I'm not sure.
But it doesn't seem obvious that there wouldn't be. I guess it depends on how much you think Tesla's share price would tank if Elon had to suddenly dump single- or double-digit billions of dollars' worth on the market, vs. how overvalued you think Tesla currently is. Both parties presumably have people paid to run the numbers on that.
I mean, if I was First Twitter Lord, I'd go right for the short-and-curlies: force Musk to actually complete the deal that he signed, fork over the cash, and shove all of Twitter right up his pudgy white ass until blue checkmarks come out his nose. And I'd go running happily away from that dumpster fire of a company, because I think Twitter is literal garbage and taking down Musk and Twitter in one deal ought to make me eligible for at least one Nobel Prize. But I suspect Twitter's board probably has a higher opinion of their company (corporate boards tend to, in my experience, and tech company boards doubly so). My guess is that they'll push hard for specific performance in court, but behind the scenes they'll be looking for a deal that lets both parties walk away, Musk somewhat poorer and Twitter somewhat richer, but still independent.
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:20 PM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Maybe there's no overlap between those two numbers, I'm not sure.
But it doesn't seem obvious that there wouldn't be. I guess it depends on how much you think Tesla's share price would tank if Elon had to suddenly dump single- or double-digit billions of dollars' worth on the market, vs. how overvalued you think Tesla currently is. Both parties presumably have people paid to run the numbers on that.
I mean, if I was First Twitter Lord, I'd go right for the short-and-curlies: force Musk to actually complete the deal that he signed, fork over the cash, and shove all of Twitter right up his pudgy white ass until blue checkmarks come out his nose. And I'd go running happily away from that dumpster fire of a company, because I think Twitter is literal garbage and taking down Musk and Twitter in one deal ought to make me eligible for at least one Nobel Prize. But I suspect Twitter's board probably has a higher opinion of their company (corporate boards tend to, in my experience, and tech company boards doubly so). My guess is that they'll push hard for specific performance in court, but behind the scenes they'll be looking for a deal that lets both parties walk away, Musk somewhat poorer and Twitter somewhat richer, but still independent.
posted by Kadin2048 at 11:20 PM on July 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
It's worth noting that while Twitter is a pile of continually burning tires, a lot of people use it, and if you follow positive people and support them your corner of it can be a decent place, despite the hated intrusions of the easily-gamed What's Happening sidebar. If Musk is forced to keep up his end of the bargain, you end up with someone owning something he doesn't want to own, which never works out well. It might be good for Twitter's current shareholders, but it's probably bad for the people who use Twitter. He could wreck it, intentionally or not, or just shut it down, and whatever replaces it may be worse.
posted by JHarris at 1:27 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by JHarris at 1:27 AM on July 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
And in why integration isn't an outright good, Tesla invents car DLC, confiscates an owner's capacity because they can.
posted by NoxAeternum at 3:42 PM on July 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by NoxAeternum at 3:42 PM on July 26, 2022 [2 favorites]
And Musk is calling for a public debate with Twitter's CEO over bot numbers.
If there is any move that screams "I don't have an actual case", it's this.
posted by NoxAeternum at 1:26 PM on August 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
If there is any move that screams "I don't have an actual case", it's this.
posted by NoxAeternum at 1:26 PM on August 8, 2022 [5 favorites]
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The billionaire signed a legally binding agreement in April to buy the company for $54.20 a share, waiving due diligence to get the deal done quickly. The terms included a $1 billion breakup fee if the agreement fell apart and a clause that gives Twitter the right to sue Mr. Musk and force him to complete or pay for the deal, so long as the debt financing he has corralled remains intact.
Emphasis gleefully mine.
posted by swift at 4:20 PM on July 8, 2022 [59 favorites]