Putin's War (SLNYT)
December 17, 2022 4:23 PM   Subscribe

Putin's War A Times investigation based on interviews, intercepts, documents and secret battle plans shows how a “walk in the park” became a catastrophe for Russia.

How could one of the world’s most powerful militaries, led by a celebrated tactician like Mr. Putin, have faltered so badly against its much smaller, weaker rival? To piece together the answer, we drew from hundreds of Russian government emails, documents, invasion plans, military ledgers and propaganda directives. We listened to Russian phone calls from the battlefield and spoke with dozens of soldiers, senior officials and Putin confidants who have known him for decades.

The Times investigation found a stunning cascade of mistakes that started with Mr. Putin — profoundly isolated in the pandemic, obsessed with his legacy, convinced of his own brilliance — and continued long after drafted soldiers like Mikhail were sent to the slaughter.
posted by General Malaise (44 comments total) 39 users marked this as a favorite
 
Just an absolutely incredible piece of reporting with maybe not that many surprises per se, but the volume of detail is just extraordinary.
posted by General Malaise at 4:30 PM on December 17, 2022 [7 favorites]


Gift link to the story.
posted by Rumple at 4:42 PM on December 17, 2022 [29 favorites]


Eponysterical.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 5:49 PM on December 17, 2022 [15 favorites]


There is an open Ukraine war FPP here, but this article is definitely worthy of posting on its own. I found it to be extremely interesting to read.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:58 PM on December 17, 2022 [6 favorites]


I will always remember seeing two Russian soldiers in a foxhole, sleeping, while a drone maneuvered overhead. The AP grenade detonated about a foot from the foxhole. One immediately sat upright to check for wounds and then apply a tourniquet to his leg. His partner didn't move.

Tourniquet Man tried to stand. His partner rolled over and flung an arm over him, stopping Tourniquet Man from standing. He tried to pull Tourniquet Man closer.

I briefly wondered why he'd stop his friend from going to get help, when I realized he was dying. He knew he was dying, and he didn't want to die in a frozen hole all alone. If he had to die, at least he wanted to die in the company of someone. Someone he liked, at least. At least he could hug another human while he died.

Fuck Putin forever, and may god bless the drone operators despite what I just said.
posted by aramaic at 6:12 PM on December 17, 2022 [21 favorites]


...how exactly did you see this?
posted by Merus at 6:24 PM on December 17, 2022


"Russia’s force pushing south toward the city of Chernihiv was eviscerated by a motley group of Ukrainian defenders outnumbered five to one, soldiers and senior officials said."

How unfun is the NYTimes? Motley Group instead of Motley Crew.
posted by srboisvert at 6:30 PM on December 17, 2022 [3 favorites]


...how exactly did you see this?

Youtube, obviously. Click on one Russian tank exploding and you'll see. The algorithm wants you to see.

Another non-favorite was the guy who was quietly digging a toilet hole when a drone grenade hit him. He died with his pants around his ankles, a roll of toilet paper his only friend.
posted by aramaic at 6:35 PM on December 17, 2022 [7 favorites]


>...how exactly did you see this?

Probably by visiting any of the subreddits devoted to combat footage from Ukraine, including drone footage. I don't look at them because I like to sleep at night, but it's not at all rare to see that kind of stuff on the front page.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 6:35 PM on December 17, 2022 [7 favorites]


Be careful those videos can break you emotionally. It isn’t the sterile drone footage shared by the Pentagon in wars past. As we pass the anniversary of the WW2
Battle of the Bulge you can get a sense though of the real, not Hollywood version of guys freezing in a foxhole when an artillery shell or grenade comes out of nowhere. If you need that reminder that war is a horrible madness.
posted by interogative mood at 7:10 PM on December 17, 2022 [16 favorites]


Be careful those videos can break you emotionally.

Truth: I spent an entire day weeping for that fucking idiot fascist invader. The best thing he could have done was shoot his commander, but instead he died in a frozen hole, trying desperately for that last bit of human connection. Just terrible. That poor fucking idiot, jesus christ.
posted by aramaic at 7:15 PM on December 17, 2022 [22 favorites]


This is sitting open in another browser window, and has been all morning. I think that what I find most baffling about all of this is, I read an analysis of the coming conflict like a year ago, I think in The Nation, and I thought, "Holy shit, this would be Vietnam for Putin. They'd never outright lose, but they'd never win, and the loss of life would be horrific. He can't be this stupid." But I guess they're always that stupid.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 9:08 AM on December 18, 2022 [7 favorites]


But I guess they're always that stupid

well it's not like the US learned anything from Vietnam either, since we did it again, but longer! in Afghanistan.
posted by supermedusa at 9:14 AM on December 18, 2022 [13 favorites]


Nobody ever launches a war thinking they will lose.

And the Times is on it.
posted by nothing.especially.clever at 9:40 AM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]


There’s a big bit on CNN about how sad it was a couple of B-52s got shit down performing a mass bombing atrocity on Vietnam, with a bit of justification about how in the end it helped them “win”, which really made me think cyborg-corpse Putin or whatever successor there is will be representing his own imperial hubris the same way in 50 years.
posted by Artw at 9:43 AM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]


I think that what I find most baffling about all of this is, I read an analysis of the coming conflict like a year ago, I think in The Nation, and I thought, "Holy shit, this would be Vietnam for Putin.

I'm reading a history of the Vietnam War right now, and I keep being struck by parallels to Russia's war in Ukraine. When you have a motivated defender who is being supplied by major military powers across a secure land border, and you have at best lukewarm support at home, and you have an invading force that is too small to actually hold a lot of terrain, it's hard to see a path to a real victory.

There are some similarities as well in how, given the virtual impossibility of an actual military victory, the US forces in Vietnam and the Russian forces now turned to indiscriminate bombing and population clearance. (Obviously many things are different between the two cases, probably more than is similar, but there are some notable overlaps.)
posted by Dip Flash at 10:28 AM on December 18, 2022 [9 favorites]


well it's not like the US learned anything from Vietnam either, since we did it again, but longer! in Afghanistan.

?

not really. For starters, over twenty times as many Americans died in Vietnam. Likewise, the Afghani losses (though horrific) don't come close to what happened to the Vietnamese.

But I suppose both were situations of the US mucking around in foreign territory, making a mess of things and not achieving their objectives. If that's your point, fair enough. But I don't think it does history any favours to blur the magnitude of America's failure and humiliation and yes, crimes against humanity, during the Vietnam "police action".
posted by philip-random at 10:55 AM on December 18, 2022 [4 favorites]


the US mucking around in foreign territory, making a mess of things and not achieving their objectives

is entirely what I was getting at.
posted by supermedusa at 11:11 AM on December 18, 2022 [1 favorite]


I get that the US invades and murders tens of thousands on foreign soil on the regular, but there are still many parallels worth comparison between Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Differences in magnitudes, sure, but a nuke is a nuke for many vectors of analysis, regardless of megatons. Imperialist invasions of historically exploited countries for the worst reasons that leave tens of thousands murdered and tens of thousands of subsequent suicides are Imperialist invasions of historically exploited countries for the worst reasons that leave tens of thousands murdered and tens of thousands of subsequnt suicides, regardless of the # of 10s that come before the thousands, imo
posted by CPAnarchist at 11:18 AM on December 18, 2022 [4 favorites]


Any failure of analogy is absolutely not going to be through lack of trying.
posted by Artw at 11:20 AM on December 18, 2022 [1 favorite]


(US wars in ) Afghanistan vs. Vietnam feels like unnecessary US-centering for this thread.
posted by agentofselection at 12:01 PM on December 18, 2022 [26 favorites]


Philips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, has some issues with the framing of the NYT article, via his recently started substack, and believe that the paper is pretty much stuck in the 19th century way of reporting war by tallying up the battles and not really seeing the development of the war itself:
This story is in many ways great. They have gained access to Russian primary sources from the start of the war (the invasion timetable alone is remarkable) and gotten some important reflections on the state of the Russian potemkin military. The description of the impact of Russian corruption near the start is telling.

...

And then its like a switch, and the article reverts to earlier tropes about the Russians squandering their supposed dominance through choice, and losing an opportunity to overwhelm the Ukrainians, etc etc.

These kind of statements show how the flawed pre-Feb 24 analysis still infects much of the public discussion of the Russian military (in a way that remains problematic to the Ukrainians). The Russian military never could have steamrollered the Ukrainians. It wasn't by choice that they failed, it was because 1) the Ukrainians were much better prepared than many still seem to understand and 2) The Russian military was a deeply flawed institution that could not execute its plans.
posted by Harald74 at 12:02 PM on December 18, 2022 [20 favorites]


It doesn’t seem a stretch to say the Russians are waiting things out now - Putin has seen a lot of favorable regime change in the west recently and is no doubt hopeful to see more, as well as the possibility of Israel or other “neutral” states flipping a bit further in his favor.He probably also has the hope that non-state actors might start agitating for him as well - thinking of Musk and Starlink in particular here but I’m sure there’s other pro-authoritarian business leaders that would just love to throw him a bind.

If it all holds together he’s fucked, if people start blinking he’s in with a chance.
posted by Artw at 1:06 PM on December 18, 2022 [7 favorites]


Russia came to rely on such battered, inexperienced troops after months of tactics that more closely resembled 1917 than 2022.

This is the comparison I've been seeing since the first week of the war. Damn.
posted by doctornemo at 1:19 PM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]


(US wars in ) Afghanistan vs. Vietnam feels like unnecessary US-centering for this thread

Given they're arguably all of the same conflict by beligerents with arguably the same motive, I'd disagree. That said, I'll bow out anyway.
posted by CPAnarchist at 2:55 PM on December 18, 2022 [1 favorite]


but there are still many parallels worth comparison between Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Russia's support of North Vietnam and later invasion of Afghanistan has parallels.

"well it's not like the US learned anything from Vietnam either, since we did it again, but longer! in Afghanistan.

U.S. involvement was longer in Vietnam then war in Afghanistan.
How a discussion about Putin goes straight to America is just odd historically, unless it's involves a tangent or footnote. Can we not do that.
from the article:
"“Our most important resource is not a medal, not money and not possession of anything,” said Konstantin Zatulin, a member of Parliament in Mr. Putin’s United Russia party. “Our main, most important resource is access to the president.”

That currency as a viable fiat is becoming transitory.
posted by clavdivs at 3:09 PM on December 18, 2022 [3 favorites]


Is it too soon to start talking about what a Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods treaty for Russia should look like at the end of this war?

Life in Russia is so utterly shitty that the regime is able to conscript 18-20 year old men into this meat grinder. Something has to be done about that.
posted by ocschwar at 8:16 PM on December 18, 2022 [3 favorites]


Eh. That’s for if you invade a country not if a country stops invading another country.

Russia sucks and will continue to suck while it is under the heel of its oppressor, Russia.
posted by Artw at 8:18 PM on December 18, 2022 [5 favorites]


Marshall plan for Ukraine first, plzkthx. Polish MEP (and ex war correspondent in Afghanistan in the 80s) Sikorski recently said he can see Ukraine joining the EU by the end of the decade. Since it's nearly Christmas, the traditional formula is "I wish this for you all and for myself."
posted by I claim sanctuary at 3:13 AM on December 19, 2022 [6 favorites]


Is it too soon to start talking about what a Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods treaty for Russia should look like at the end of this war?

It's never too soon repeat past mistakes!
posted by srboisvert at 7:01 AM on December 19, 2022 [1 favorite]


I felt that The Marshall Plan was a break from the past and a success at what it set out to do. Maybe Bretton Woods not so much. (I also think these approaches won't really apply in a Slavic future whatever way it goes).
posted by ovvl at 7:27 AM on December 19, 2022


I never imagined that I would pity Russian soldiers. Yet, with the drone footage of the grenades dropping into trenches and the stories of draftees being dumped at the front line without without food, armor, shelter, or warm clothing, I feel sorry for them.

On the other hand, the brutal acts of Putin's army cause me to cheer the defenders' blows against them. It is an ugly feeling.
posted by Midnight Skulker at 8:24 AM on December 19, 2022


(US wars in ) Afghanistan vs. Vietnam feels like unnecessary US-centering for this thread.

Especially since Russia had their own Afghanistan adventure just about 30 years ago, so commanders should remember.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:42 AM on December 19, 2022


I felt that The Marshall Plan was a break from the past and a success at what it set out to do. Maybe Bretton Woods not so much.

Bretton Woods and the Marshall Plan were both done so that the next generation of the defeated nation would not be facing the same economic and geopolitical interests that led to World War Two.

Both agreements did something good for the next generation at the price of committing the appearance and reality of coddling the present generation's defeated aggressors. I support repeating it because vomit is cheaper than blood.

And Bretton Woods failed because the Second World decided not to sign up for it. A gross mistake. The principle behind Bretton Woods is exactly what's needed for the peace. Just like postwar Germans and Japanese, the next generation of Russians should know they can get anything they want from the rest of the world by getting the money together, and absolutely nothing from the rest of the world by getting military power together.
posted by ocschwar at 2:33 PM on December 19, 2022 [3 favorites]


Right but there is literally nothing we can do for Russia, that’s Russias business.
posted by Artw at 3:17 PM on December 19, 2022


Actually the main thing that can be done for Russia is probably the biggest thing Russia and tankies say they don’t want - all the surrounding nations should join NATO so Russia isn’t tempted to do any more stupid ass invasions.
posted by Artw at 3:20 PM on December 19, 2022 [4 favorites]


I felt that The Marshall Plan was a break from the past and a success at what it set out to do. Maybe Bretton Woods not so much. (I also think these approaches won't really apply in a Slavic future whatever way it goes).

The past mistake was that the US intervened politically and economically extensively in post-soviet Russia playing a key part in turning it into a rampant kleptocratic autocracy. The US has also done this in Iraq and Afghanistan to enormously little success.

What needs to happen is to stop playing footsie with bad countries because it is economically convenient for our oligarchs to socialize with their oligarchs while raiding the treasuries of both countries and calling it realpolitik.
posted by srboisvert at 3:38 PM on December 19, 2022 [3 favorites]


Former Lt General Alexander Lebed who made his name as an airborne commander in Afghanistan and his peers were murdered by Putin in the early years of his regime for being too competent and too powerful with their base political support from of afghan war veterans. The institutional knowledge isn’t there anymore.
posted by interogative mood at 2:46 PM on December 21, 2022


I'm curious as to what people think this Editorial Cartoon means. My only theory isn't great but I'd like others thoughts.
posted by jclarkin at 10:09 AM on December 22, 2022


I think it means exactly what it looks like it means and holy shit, they actually ran that?
posted by Artw at 10:57 AM on December 22, 2022


Dude appears to have form.
posted by Artw at 11:46 AM on December 22, 2022


I'm curious as to what people think this Editorial Cartoon means. My only theory isn't great but I'd like others thoughts.

The link didn't work for me so I went looking. https://archive.vn/dqkU2

ugh.
posted by srboisvert at 3:48 PM on December 22, 2022


The past mistake was that the US intervened politically and economically extensively in post-soviet Russia playing a key part in turning it into a rampant kleptocratic autocracy. The US has also done this in Iraq and Afghanistan to enormously little success.

Yeah, I have an idealistic nostalgia for The Marshall Plan because it was a reasonably thought-out economic development project, and not a cynical exploitative cluster-fvck, like everything the USA has done in the last few decades. When we watched the occupation of Iraq & Afghanistan happen, I was waiting for the next phase economic development to start happening, and it never did. We learned that the only reason for those invasions was to sell arms for Dick Cheney, and when that was done, then mission accomplished was achieved.
posted by ovvl at 5:18 PM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]


"Many of these sales were announced during the 1992 presidential campaign, and so it is hardly surprising that Democratic candidate Bill Clinton expressed concern over the magnitude of U.S. arms exports. Moreover, after winning the election, Clinton indicated that he would take a fresh look at American arms transfer policies. This suggested to some that he would resurrect some of the restrictive policies of the Carter administration. Once in office, however, Clinton followed essentially the same path as his predecessor—approving major sales that benefited American arms manufacturers while supporting U.S. security objectives in vital areas, such as the Middle East and the Pacific Rim.

To provide greater coherence to U.S. policy in this area, Clinton appointed a special commission on conventional arms exports. On the basis of this review, he announced a new conventional arms transfer policy on 17 February 1995. Reiterating many of the arguments made by previous administrations, the Clinton policy embraced both the security and the economic justifications for military sales. With respect to the latter, the policy specifically mandated that "the impact on U.S. industry" of pending sales was to be taken into account when deciding on future transactions.

In line with this policy, Clinton approved a series of major arms sales to friendly nations in the Persian Gulf area. Arguing that the United States had vital security interests in this region—notably the free flow of oil—and that these countries would be called on to assist U.S. forces in the event of an attack by Iran or Iraq, Clinton authorized the transfer of $46.5 billion worth of military hardware to the Middle East in 1993–2000—an amount that represented about three-fourths of the total value of all U.S. military transfers to the developing world."
🤔

What the blazes, Putin doing T.V. and factory tour. What's he going to do with his new Cheeto supply. What's with the belerus feild hospital (s) and talk of drone strikes on St. Petersburg. Girkin sees a faint and Reverand John hits the mark with Patriots arriving, merry Christmas 🎄.
posted by clavdivs at 12:02 AM on December 24, 2022 [1 favorite]


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