Ukraine war month ten, going into the coldest part of winter
December 14, 2022 12:16 AM Subscribe
Christmas is coming up, and in Ukraine the civilian population is struggling to keep the lights on after massive Russian missile and drone attacks on the heat and electricity infrastructure. After using hundreds of simple Iranian drones with reportedly limited success, Russia is trying to procure ballistic missiles from Iran. The US is finalising plans to send Patriot air defence missiles, while there are reports (machine translation) that the comparable French/Italian SAMP/T Mamba will also be provided. On the front line the situation seems to be quite stable as the muddy season is drawing to an end, but both sides keeps a lid on information these days.
The EU is trying to aid Ukrainian power and heat generation.
The Norwegian designed, US-funded NASAMS air defence systems sent to Ukraine a month ago has apparently been very successful, and moved the Ukrainians to make an actual fan video.
As always, the civilians are struggling in wartime, and Support Ukraine Now provides a list of ways to help.
The EU is trying to aid Ukrainian power and heat generation.
The Norwegian designed, US-funded NASAMS air defence systems sent to Ukraine a month ago has apparently been very successful, and moved the Ukrainians to make an actual fan video.
As always, the civilians are struggling in wartime, and Support Ukraine Now provides a list of ways to help.
And I forgot the reminder in the FPP that if you'd like to discuss nuclear escalation, you'll have to make a separate thread for that (the old one is closed).
posted by Harald74 at 12:38 AM on December 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:38 AM on December 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
"Senior Israeli officials stated that Iran seeks to limit the range of missiles it plans to provide Russia. Axios reported on December 12 that Iran fears international backlash from providing Russia with long range missiles to use in the war in Ukraine..."
"Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russian in the 1990s as part of an international agreement that Russia explicitly violated by invading Ukraine in 2014 and 2022." (ibid)
By spring Putin will be driving Lada' with bolt action rifles to the Kharkiv plains.
posted by clavdivs at 1:08 AM on December 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
"Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces are striking Ukraine with missiles that Ukraine transferred to Russian in the 1990s as part of an international agreement that Russia explicitly violated by invading Ukraine in 2014 and 2022." (ibid)
By spring Putin will be driving Lada' with bolt action rifles to the Kharkiv plains.
posted by clavdivs at 1:08 AM on December 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
It seems like ballistic missiles from Iran caused long-range AD to be provided, but I'm interested in seeing if ATACMS missiles will be provided as well. Though they will probably not be announced beforehand, we will probably find out much the same way we did with HIMARS, i.e. when logistics hubs and HQs far behind Russian lines start to blow up.
posted by Harald74 at 1:25 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 1:25 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Kiyv Independent: Understanding Russia’s relentless assault on Bakhmut
posted by kmt at 1:27 AM on December 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by kmt at 1:27 AM on December 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
Maybe you remember Azovstal defender Mykhailo Dianov, who had a serious arm injury that went untreated in Russian captivity? Well, he had surgery yesterday in the US, and is expected to regain full use of his arm!
posted by Harald74 at 3:51 AM on December 14, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 3:51 AM on December 14, 2022 [16 favorites]
Yale has published 22 lectures on The Making of Ukraine by Timothy Snyder. It's extremely comprehensive, covering the last 2000 years of history in the region. You may remember Snyder as the author of Bloodlands (free yt audiobook), a gut-wrenching account of the crimes of Hitler and Stalin in eastern Europe.
A note I made:
200000 crimean tatars were deported to uzbekistan in 1944 in studebakers lecture 17
These are the descendants of Mongols that settled in Crimea and converted to Islam. The Crimean Khanate existed from 1441 to 1783, when they were annexed by the Russian empire.
This was a colonial project that should be familiar to the west. 'This was always Russia' is part of the accompanying mythology. They are still pushing this lie today.
Anyhow, if you're wondering where the Tatars went, they're in Uzbekistan. 200k were deported under the fog of war, mainly with lend-lease Studebakers, in 1944.
Russian enmity with the Tatars goes back a long way. In 1571 Crimean Tatars burned down Moscow. I wonder how they teach that while denying the Tatars ever existed? (they don't)
So there was an Islamic state in Crimea for 342 years. The Russian propaganda is horseshit in service of ethnic cleansing.
I'm on lecture 19 now, I can confidently say I know the history of Ukraine well.
posted by adept256 at 5:57 AM on December 14, 2022 [25 favorites]
A note I made:
200000 crimean tatars were deported to uzbekistan in 1944 in studebakers lecture 17
These are the descendants of Mongols that settled in Crimea and converted to Islam. The Crimean Khanate existed from 1441 to 1783, when they were annexed by the Russian empire.
This was a colonial project that should be familiar to the west. 'This was always Russia' is part of the accompanying mythology. They are still pushing this lie today.
Anyhow, if you're wondering where the Tatars went, they're in Uzbekistan. 200k were deported under the fog of war, mainly with lend-lease Studebakers, in 1944.
Russian enmity with the Tatars goes back a long way. In 1571 Crimean Tatars burned down Moscow. I wonder how they teach that while denying the Tatars ever existed? (they don't)
So there was an Islamic state in Crimea for 342 years. The Russian propaganda is horseshit in service of ethnic cleansing.
I'm on lecture 19 now, I can confidently say I know the history of Ukraine well.
posted by adept256 at 5:57 AM on December 14, 2022 [25 favorites]
Oh yeah, the justification was that they were nazis or collaborated with the nazis, so they couldn't be trusted. This applied to almost everyone not 'Russian' enough in liberated territories.
posted by adept256 at 6:04 AM on December 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 6:04 AM on December 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
It seems like ballistic missiles from Iran caused long-range AD to be provided, but I'm interested in seeing if ATACMS missiles will be provided as well. Though they will probably not be announced beforehand, we will probably find out much the same way we did with HIMARS, i.e. when logistics hubs and HQs far behind Russian lines start to blow up.
I really hope that longer-range offensive weapons will be forthcoming along with the improved defensive systems in the coming months. Whether that is the ATACMS or some other cheaper system (like the GLSDB missiles that supposedly are compatible with the HIMARS launchers), being able to reach that much deeper into Russian-controlled territory needs to happen.
I also hope that the long-hinted at transfers of spare Mig fighters and modern tanks happens soon, too.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:30 AM on December 14, 2022
I really hope that longer-range offensive weapons will be forthcoming along with the improved defensive systems in the coming months. Whether that is the ATACMS or some other cheaper system (like the GLSDB missiles that supposedly are compatible with the HIMARS launchers), being able to reach that much deeper into Russian-controlled territory needs to happen.
I also hope that the long-hinted at transfers of spare Mig fighters and modern tanks happens soon, too.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:30 AM on December 14, 2022
Vice: Pentagon Says Russia Will Soon Be Forced to Use Old, 'Degraded' Ammo In Ukraine. Properly stored ammunition can last a lifetime but Russia has a bad track record of improper storage that leads to massive explosions and death.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:42 AM on December 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:42 AM on December 14, 2022 [2 favorites]
And Russia being the anti-OSHA will not help. Lots of videos of dangerous handling of explosives and ammo out there.
posted by Harald74 at 8:28 AM on December 14, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 8:28 AM on December 14, 2022
That lecture series looks really interesting, and the first video has accumulated 1m views. I'll see if I can watch them during Christmas, thanks for sharing!
posted by Harald74 at 8:30 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 8:30 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
An informational video from the Armed Forces of Ukraine: How to surrender to a drone.
posted by Harald74 at 8:32 AM on December 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 8:32 AM on December 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
This is the first direct war between industrialized countries in decades. In a long war scenario where this is still going in a year how much of NATO+Ukraine’s industrial output is committed to supplying this war vs how much of a Russia’s? How many people will Ukraine and Russia be able to mobilize?
Both sides in the war are currently drawing down old stock and working to ramp up production. Obviously the west can out produce Russia; but there are two things to consider. Is there some point where marginal output is irrelevant? If the most either army can use is 100,000 shells/ month and both sides can make 100,000 shells/month then even if the west makes a million/month it doesn’t matter.
posted by interogative mood at 8:40 AM on December 14, 2022
Both sides in the war are currently drawing down old stock and working to ramp up production. Obviously the west can out produce Russia; but there are two things to consider. Is there some point where marginal output is irrelevant? If the most either army can use is 100,000 shells/ month and both sides can make 100,000 shells/month then even if the west makes a million/month it doesn’t matter.
posted by interogative mood at 8:40 AM on December 14, 2022
adept256 thanks so much for the lecture links! that is exactly the sort of deep-dive comprehensive history I would like to sink my teeth into to have a better understanding of this region.
posted by supermedusa at 8:49 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by supermedusa at 8:49 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia and Ukraine might be running out vital stuff - but there are over 40 companies selling anti-tank dragons teeth. Clearly the industry to be in.
posted by rongorongo at 10:11 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by rongorongo at 10:11 AM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Refugee update: some details emerging on Poland's plan to make Ukrainian refugees in Poland register and partially pay for their own upkeep when they're using public funded refugee centers (as around eighty thousand still are). From March all refugees will have a month from arrival (or March 1) to get a Polish national ID number or stop receiving aid. After four months of free food and board, they'll have to pay up to 40 PLN (so about 8 euro) per day to finance 50% of costs, and two months later this goes up to 75% but no more than 60 PLN / 12 euro. Thankfully there's a tonne of exceptions for the elderly, caretakers of 3 kids or more or babies up to 1 year, pregnant people, disabled people and people in "exceptionally difficult circumstances", which I suspect covers the bulk of those still living in refugee centers. Humanitarian organisations including Amnesty International, the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights and Polish aid organisations are protesting the draft law.
(And yes, this means that over 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees have now found their own quarters - market rate or housed by private citizens and NGOs - with adults taking up employment, kids attending Polish schools and families finding long-term equilibrium, in less than ten months. Poland had less than 38 million people before the war, so that's a nearly 4% population increase.)
It's craft fair season again and the Ukrainian craftsmen have a strong presence. I've been following this one Ukrainian jewelry crafter I bought stuff off last spring, and she's been all over the place exhibiting and selling her jewelry. I bought ceramics off of a guy who does gorgeous folk-inspired things at the Ethnographic Museum Christmas Fair, which was like a quarter Ukrainian folk crafters. Feels like people are rebuilding their lives, but also that this rapprochement between Poland and Ukraine has a chance to last, culturally. For countries with our checkered shared history, it's a big thing.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:29 AM on December 14, 2022 [17 favorites]
(And yes, this means that over 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees have now found their own quarters - market rate or housed by private citizens and NGOs - with adults taking up employment, kids attending Polish schools and families finding long-term equilibrium, in less than ten months. Poland had less than 38 million people before the war, so that's a nearly 4% population increase.)
It's craft fair season again and the Ukrainian craftsmen have a strong presence. I've been following this one Ukrainian jewelry crafter I bought stuff off last spring, and she's been all over the place exhibiting and selling her jewelry. I bought ceramics off of a guy who does gorgeous folk-inspired things at the Ethnographic Museum Christmas Fair, which was like a quarter Ukrainian folk crafters. Feels like people are rebuilding their lives, but also that this rapprochement between Poland and Ukraine has a chance to last, culturally. For countries with our checkered shared history, it's a big thing.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:29 AM on December 14, 2022 [17 favorites]
And Russia being the anti-OSHA will not help. Lots of videos of dangerous handling of explosives and ammo out there.
That's okay, they'll make it up in volume.
posted by Sauce Trough at 10:50 AM on December 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
That's okay, they'll make it up in volume.
posted by Sauce Trough at 10:50 AM on December 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Both sides in the war are currently drawing down old stock and working to ramp up production.
This is something that really isn't mentioned that much but a lot of the American aid to Ukraine has been equipment that the United States was going to dispose of anyway as it had reached its "Best Before Date" and the maintenance costs were outrunning utility and the existence of the stocks of weaponry was blocking the adoption of more modern tech. So when they toss around those billion dollar numbers of aid for Ukraine they are kind of not real. The billions of actual dollars are currently mostly going to upgrade the U.S. Military's equipment (much to the military industrial complex's delight). The costs of aiding Ukraine are that the US can't sell its old arms to other countries to recoup some money which is a fiscal loss but maybe actually a net positive in that it keeps them away from shady actors and nations (and domestic police forces).
posted by srboisvert at 11:03 AM on December 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
This is something that really isn't mentioned that much but a lot of the American aid to Ukraine has been equipment that the United States was going to dispose of anyway as it had reached its "Best Before Date" and the maintenance costs were outrunning utility and the existence of the stocks of weaponry was blocking the adoption of more modern tech. So when they toss around those billion dollar numbers of aid for Ukraine they are kind of not real. The billions of actual dollars are currently mostly going to upgrade the U.S. Military's equipment (much to the military industrial complex's delight). The costs of aiding Ukraine are that the US can't sell its old arms to other countries to recoup some money which is a fiscal loss but maybe actually a net positive in that it keeps them away from shady actors and nations (and domestic police forces).
posted by srboisvert at 11:03 AM on December 14, 2022 [10 favorites]
The Ukraine forces shot down 13 of 13 drones last night, repulsed a dozen or so land advances and reduced Russian forces by over 700. When does attrition start to make a difference? Well it is certainly making a huge difference but will there be a threshold where the invaders throw up their hands and walk eastward?
posted by sammyo at 11:54 AM on December 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 11:54 AM on December 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
For anyone interested in hearing about the situation in Ukraine firsthand from a young Ukrainian journalist, we have an upcoming MeFi event on Friday about this. ("The Digital Side of the Russian War in Ukraine", with Vladyslav Alforov)
I'd encourage anyone interested in this thread to sign up - and if you can, come with questions - Vlad (the speaker) hopes to make this a more interactive discussion.
posted by aielen at 12:21 PM on December 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
I'd encourage anyone interested in this thread to sign up - and if you can, come with questions - Vlad (the speaker) hopes to make this a more interactive discussion.
posted by aielen at 12:21 PM on December 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
That lecture series looks really interesting, and the first video has accumulated 1m views. I'll see if I can watch them during Christmas, thanks for sharing!
adept256 thanks so much for the lecture links! that is exactly the sort of deep-dive comprehensive history I would like to sink my teeth into to have a better understanding of this region.
Yes! I encourage you to do so! These lectures are plainly for the students at Yale, though we may sit in. We're getting a semester for free, while some are condemned to ramen for 20 years. Take advantage of it.
It's a long course and very dense. I'm near the end of it, though I feel I need some revision. If you're going to take it on, I'd love a memail to see how you go and compare notes.
posted by adept256 at 7:59 PM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
adept256 thanks so much for the lecture links! that is exactly the sort of deep-dive comprehensive history I would like to sink my teeth into to have a better understanding of this region.
Yes! I encourage you to do so! These lectures are plainly for the students at Yale, though we may sit in. We're getting a semester for free, while some are condemned to ramen for 20 years. Take advantage of it.
It's a long course and very dense. I'm near the end of it, though I feel I need some revision. If you're going to take it on, I'd love a memail to see how you go and compare notes.
posted by adept256 at 7:59 PM on December 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
At the Root of the Russian Regime’s Misunderstanding: the Ignorance of Mass Crimes
Have Democracies Truly Overcome Their Past Blindness?
Bit of an awkward title, but a reasonably well translated article by Nicolas Tenzer.
posted by Kabanos at 8:09 PM on December 14, 2022
Have Democracies Truly Overcome Their Past Blindness?
Bit of an awkward title, but a reasonably well translated article by Nicolas Tenzer.
posted by Kabanos at 8:09 PM on December 14, 2022
How to surrender to a drone.
I wonder if this was inspired in part by Stephenson's 'Termination Shock' ?
The drones need laser pointer projectors to draw arrows and stuff.
posted by porpoise at 8:47 PM on December 14, 2022
I wonder if this was inspired in part by Stephenson's 'Termination Shock' ?
The drones need laser pointer projectors to draw arrows and stuff.
posted by porpoise at 8:47 PM on December 14, 2022
Sauce Trough: That's okay, they'll make it up in volume.
And the essence of explosives is that they increase in volume.
An obvious solution presents itself.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:42 PM on December 14, 2022
And the essence of explosives is that they increase in volume.
An obvious solution presents itself.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:42 PM on December 14, 2022
According to a recent poll, 74% of EU citizens approve of supporting Ukraine in the war.
posted by Harald74 at 1:11 AM on December 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:11 AM on December 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Michael Weiss and James Rushton on the Patriot missile system.
posted by Harald74 at 1:16 AM on December 15, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 1:16 AM on December 15, 2022
Russian media report that Putin has cancelled the traditional December press conference he has been holding for years. In addition, the traditional message to the parliament did not pass, and the New Year's reception in the Kremlin was also cancelled.
posted by Harald74 at 1:27 AM on December 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:27 AM on December 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
In ridiculous things, the chief of Polish police was lightly injured while playing with a grenade launcher that was a souvenir from a visit to Ukrainian special forces. He was showing off his gifts to colleagues when the launcher fired - fortunately trigger discipline was maintained and main damage was to the ceiling. Unofficial word is that the guy was mainly stunned and lost his hearing for a few hours. Vot molodyetz, as my Russian-Ukrainian gran would say...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:34 AM on December 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 6:34 AM on December 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's hard to overstate the extent of Russian war crimes and even crimes against humanity in this and past wars. Targeting civilian infrastructure like power and hospitals and apartments, of course. But so much more as well.They continue to steal children, steal property and goods and lives. There is a lot of attempts to forcibly integrate the occupied territory into Russia. And the sketchy mobilization/throwing bodies on the front lines continues. Both Russian citizens and people in occupied territory.
posted by Jacen at 7:31 AM on December 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 7:31 AM on December 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
Politico: Poland holds up Ukraine aid and Hungary plans over tax concerns
I thought it's only the Hungarian governent who would try to pull such a thing, so now I'm confused. What's going on with this one?
posted by kmt at 10:04 AM on December 15, 2022
I thought it's only the Hungarian governent who would try to pull such a thing, so now I'm confused. What's going on with this one?
posted by kmt at 10:04 AM on December 15, 2022
Poland's over the barrel on our Recovery and Resilience plan because the EU unsurprisingly wants to give money to countries that are actually about the rule of law, including judicial independence which "Law and Justice" has systematically eradicated. This is a good summary. So they're trying their best to make waves to get the EU Commission to back down, including vetoing this legislation package that includes unblocking the Hungarian Recovery and Resilience facility - because Orban did blink and introduced some reforms to remove the most egregious breaches of the rule of law. The Polish idiots in charge just cancelled that veto a couple hours ago, possibly because it exploded in their face just as their own attempts to get the hawks in their government to blink turned out to be a damp squib.
As someone whose work and salary is tangentially related to the wider field of EU funded investments in Poland I am... very much unamused. I assume Zelenskyy is likewise, since it was blocking aid for Ukraine as well.
In other fun news, we did have active Russian spies in the commissions dismantling our security services in 2005-2007 during the first government by Law and Justice, and no-one is surprised. A LOT of this is Russian-inspired, with funding links publicly available. I'm just happy that for now they haven't bitten that "let's partition Ukraine" hook that Putin keeps dangling because he's fixated on repeating 1919.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:42 AM on December 15, 2022 [12 favorites]
As someone whose work and salary is tangentially related to the wider field of EU funded investments in Poland I am... very much unamused. I assume Zelenskyy is likewise, since it was blocking aid for Ukraine as well.
In other fun news, we did have active Russian spies in the commissions dismantling our security services in 2005-2007 during the first government by Law and Justice, and no-one is surprised. A LOT of this is Russian-inspired, with funding links publicly available. I'm just happy that for now they haven't bitten that "let's partition Ukraine" hook that Putin keeps dangling because he's fixated on repeating 1919.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:42 AM on December 15, 2022 [12 favorites]
A Wired article on GPS jamming and the tracking thereof, especially about the ongoing disruption in Russian cities.
posted by Harald74 at 10:39 PM on December 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 10:39 PM on December 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
An article in Foreign Affairs by retired Australian general Mick Ryan: Russia’s New Theory of Victory:
How Moscow Is Trying to Learn From Its Mistakes
Some excerpts:
How Moscow Is Trying to Learn From Its Mistakes
Some excerpts:
It is too soon, however, to count Russia out. Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new military commander, General Sergei Surovikin, to lead the invasion, and Surovikin appears more brutal and capable than his predecessors. In one of his first acts, he launched the vigorous and horrific aerial campaign that has destroyed much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure—a civilian-centered tactic he honed while leading Russian forces in Syria. Surovikin was responsible for Russia’s retreat from Kherson, but unlike when Russia withdrew from near Kyiv or Kharkiv, Surovikin saw to it that this retreat was well organized and well conducted....
The general appears to be the first military leader that Putin clearly supports, and—according to a recent speech by U.S. National Intelligence Director Avril Haines—the Russian president is now better informed about the armed forces’ day-to-day operations. If Putin is confident that he is being better informed than he was before October, he is more likely to turn his attention to the many other challenges that Russia currently faces, giving Surovikin greater autonomy in using Russia’s broad array of forces within Ukraine. Surovikin could use this relative freedom of action to bring Russia’s fractured military and mercenary groups under a more unified control...
Right now, the Ukrainian military still has the advantage. Unlike at the start of the war, Ukrainian leaders are the ones who decide where and when battles are fought. They get to determine how battlefield campaigns are executed. They have the momentum, and they do not want to relinquish it. But that does not mean Ukraine will have the initiative indefinitely. To stay on top, the Ukrainians need to understand and then undermine Putin and Surovikin’s plans.posted by Harald74 at 10:54 PM on December 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
The UK is mulling the transfer of Storm Shadow cruise missile to Ukraine. They have a range of 560 km, but there apparently is an export version with a reduced range of 250 km. They are not integrated on any of Ukraine's air platforms, but since they manage to use AGM-88 HARM missiles on MiG-29s I guess any bets are off.
posted by Harald74 at 3:35 AM on December 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 3:35 AM on December 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
I had a look at the map, and it seems with 560 km range Moscow is within range, but more usefully and realistically most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet's ports are in range from liberated Ukraine, and I think all of them if they fly the MiGs out over the sea. (Which would also put Putin's palace near Sochi within range, if they feel spiteful)
posted by Harald74 at 3:49 AM on December 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 3:49 AM on December 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Hi all! As mentioned above in this thread by aielen, I will be doing a presentation on the digital communication aspect of the war in Ukraine for a MeFi event today (21:00 GMT). Please feel free to drop by and raise any thoughts/questions regarding Ukraine, the war and everything media. Cheers!
posted by valforov at 6:50 AM on December 16, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by valforov at 6:50 AM on December 16, 2022 [10 favorites]
NBC News: A Biden admin official recently told members of Congress that Ukraine has the military capability to take back Crimea
The late November Ukraine briefing to some members of Congress included discussion of the reasons Ukraine will continue to need U.S. weapons and equipment for the foreseeable future. The two officials said a Biden official, when asked during the briefing about continued support for the Ukrainian military and whether it would try to retake Crimea, responded that Ukraine now has the ability to take it back.posted by Harald74 at 10:52 AM on December 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
Phillips P. OBrien on the previous article:
@PhillipsPOBrien
·
47m
The Ukrainian Army is winning the war, its greatest limiting factor is what systems it will be given.
posted by Harald74 at 10:52 AM on December 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
@PhillipsPOBrien
·
47m
The Ukrainian Army is winning the war, its greatest limiting factor is what systems it will be given.
posted by Harald74 at 10:52 AM on December 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
I haven't finished it yet, but I am finding this long (six part) article in the NYTimes about the layers upon layers of Russian failures in the war interesting.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:52 AM on December 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 8:52 AM on December 17, 2022 [6 favorites]
The current meltdown of Twitter seems to impact following the war. The latest winning move from Musk is to prohibit even mentioning competing social networks like FB, Instagram or Mastodon. I'll not be surprised if the best coverage by analysts and commentators will be really fragmented in the near future.
posted by Harald74 at 12:19 PM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:19 PM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Girkin predicting doom: "Girkin says the defeat of Russia will see him being hanged in Kyiv, meanwhile the Russian authorities are leading the country into a catastrophe."
posted by Harald74 at 12:33 PM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:33 PM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Harald74: "Girkin says the defeat of Russia will see effigies of him being hanged in Kyiv" and elsewhere, and his persona delivered to The Hague. That way Ukraine can show themselves as following the international rules of law.
At least, if he's not blown up, found frozen to death or having committed suicide.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:15 PM on December 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
At least, if he's not blown up, found frozen to death or having committed suicide.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:15 PM on December 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
I believe Girkin is speaking Vichy.
posted by clavdivs at 5:18 PM on December 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 5:18 PM on December 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
I had a look at the map, and it seems with 560 km range Moscow is within range
Do these perhaps come with a half ton of blue and yellow paint? 🇺🇦
posted by pwnguin at 7:44 PM on December 18, 2022
Do these perhaps come with a half ton of blue and yellow paint? 🇺🇦
posted by pwnguin at 7:44 PM on December 18, 2022
Interesting article in The Guardian on Ukrainian semi-formal efforts in the command and control sphere: “A small Soviet army cannot win against a large Soviet army. We have to evolve. We have to be smart,” Shlomo said. “The main task of the war for Ukraine now is to transform from a Soviet army to a Nato one. You have to change the army to a horizontal one.”
posted by Harald74 at 11:56 PM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:56 PM on December 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
A Russian volunteer going by "Murz" is not happy with the prospects for winter (fairly long text).
posted by Harald74 at 1:18 PM on December 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:18 PM on December 19, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's in French, which, well, it's in French but still the reporting is plain, direct and brings a new shade of immediacy to what's going on in Ukraine. This was a report about firefighters in Kherson, following links, there's still more about the day-to-day life there.
posted by From Bklyn at 3:11 PM on December 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by From Bklyn at 3:11 PM on December 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
The emergency services, as well as infrastructure workers, have impressed me during the conflict.
posted by Harald74 at 3:34 AM on December 20, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 3:34 AM on December 20, 2022
BTW, it's now day 300 of the 3-day operation...
posted by Harald74 at 3:34 AM on December 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 3:34 AM on December 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Zelensky has visited Bakhmut. His personal security detail must be going crazy by this point.
And even Putin went out of his bunker, to visit Minsk. I noticed he ate the bread and salt he was offered (traditional hospitality offering, especially in Slavic countries), but it might have been brought by his own people by the back door.
posted by Harald74 at 3:39 AM on December 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
And even Putin went out of his bunker, to visit Minsk. I noticed he ate the bread and salt he was offered (traditional hospitality offering, especially in Slavic countries), but it might have been brought by his own people by the back door.
posted by Harald74 at 3:39 AM on December 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Who May Speak, an essay by Ukrainian author Yevgenia Belorusets (whose war diary I linked to in early threads). Excerpt:
Identities, “cultural communities,” are created before our eyes, the aim of which is not to describe but to exclude, to define through negation. Many Ukrainians switch languages to avoid being defined as “Russian” by Russian propaganda. There is too little understanding for the grey areas of society, for the political indecision in the occupied territories, for the regions of Ukraine that used to even be admired for their multiculturalism.posted by Kattullus at 5:25 AM on December 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
This tendency, I think, mostly goes in the wrong direction. It is not the perpetrators or their enablers who get caught in the web of desperate and radical accusations. The ones caught in the web are almost always those who already feel a sense of guilt, who perhaps have lived with this guilt for a long time and have themselves fought in vain against the same crimes.
A security camera installed by my friend the Ukrainian curator Dmytro Chepurny recorded how his uncle’s house in Luhansk Oblast was broken into. The uncle had left Luhansk in February. He loved his house, his memories, his surroundings so much that he had stayed in Luhansk during the occupation in 2014, trying to get by on his small pension.
In the footage, a pair of soldiers break through a high wrought iron gate, they walk through the yard, they look around, they smile a little cheekily, as if to encourage each other to do such a small thing, in the face of more serious war crimes, as looting a house. The camera, which is motion-activated, captures their repeated comings and goings, as if they have found something of significance there. A day passes. Then the camera is on again: thirty Russian soldiers are stationed in this family house. A car drives up to the fence. Boxes are carried inside. The shot is black-and-white, the resolution is poor, the men look like ghosts, like a living quote from another era. A quote that should not remain in this text because it does not belong. You can see that these ghosts are joking around and trying to show off their snotty attitudes. Finally, one of the soldiers notices the camera. I see his hand approaching. The recording breaks off.
Not to take away from the efforts of the people on the ground doing heroic repair work. If there's a linemen hall of fame, Ukraine deserves to be in it. But having a toughened system probably makes this difficult job a bit easier. If anyone runs across an article about Soviet power grids and how it relates to Ukraine, I'd love to see it.
You might be interested in this Ukraine energy profile from the International Energy Agency (there's a link to the full pdf of the report on that page).
This happened back in March...
How Ukraine Unplugged from Russia and Joined Europe’s Power Grid with Unprecedented Speed:
Ukraine initiated the process of joining Europe’s grid in 2005 and began working toward that goal in earnest in 2017, as did Moldova. It was part of an ongoing effort to align with Europe and decrease reliance on Russia, which had repeatedly threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty. “Ukraine simply wanted to decouple from Russian dominance in every sense of the word, and the grid is part of that,” says Suriya Jayanti, an Eastern European policy expert and former U.S. diplomat who served as energy chief at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv from 2018 to 2020.
[...]
Three days after the invasion, Ukrenergo sent a letter to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) requesting authorization to connect to the European grid early. Moldelectrica, the Moldovan operator, made the same request the following day. While European operators wanted to support Ukraine, they had to protect their own grids, so the emergency connection process had to be done carefully. “Utilities and system operators are notoriously risk-averse because the job is to keep the lights on, to keep everyone safe,” says Laura Mehigan, an energy researcher at University College Cork.
[...]
Even with the emergency synchronization, it is important to manage expectations, experts say. “This level of interconnection is relatively small,” Deane says. “It’s helpful, but it’s not going to replace all the power in Ukraine if the power plants go down.” For now, electricity in Ukraine is still moving from power stations to the country’s broader distribution network. Should that change, Ukraine can import some electricity from ENTSO-E.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:01 PM on December 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
You might be interested in this Ukraine energy profile from the International Energy Agency (there's a link to the full pdf of the report on that page).
This happened back in March...
How Ukraine Unplugged from Russia and Joined Europe’s Power Grid with Unprecedented Speed:
Ukraine initiated the process of joining Europe’s grid in 2005 and began working toward that goal in earnest in 2017, as did Moldova. It was part of an ongoing effort to align with Europe and decrease reliance on Russia, which had repeatedly threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty. “Ukraine simply wanted to decouple from Russian dominance in every sense of the word, and the grid is part of that,” says Suriya Jayanti, an Eastern European policy expert and former U.S. diplomat who served as energy chief at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv from 2018 to 2020.
[...]
Three days after the invasion, Ukrenergo sent a letter to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) requesting authorization to connect to the European grid early. Moldelectrica, the Moldovan operator, made the same request the following day. While European operators wanted to support Ukraine, they had to protect their own grids, so the emergency connection process had to be done carefully. “Utilities and system operators are notoriously risk-averse because the job is to keep the lights on, to keep everyone safe,” says Laura Mehigan, an energy researcher at University College Cork.
[...]
Even with the emergency synchronization, it is important to manage expectations, experts say. “This level of interconnection is relatively small,” Deane says. “It’s helpful, but it’s not going to replace all the power in Ukraine if the power plants go down.” For now, electricity in Ukraine is still moving from power stations to the country’s broader distribution network. Should that change, Ukraine can import some electricity from ENTSO-E.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:01 PM on December 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
BBC: Ukraine's Zelensky planning to visit US on Wednesday - reports
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is planning to visit Washington on Wednesday and may address the US Congress, reports say.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:03 PM on December 20, 2022
It would be his first foreign trip since the Russian invasion in February.
Mr Zelensky could also meet President Joe Biden, unnamed officials told US media. There is no official confirmation of the visit or the plans.
There's official confirmation of the US visit now, including an address to a joint session of Congress. Apparently Zelenskyy got out of Ukraine by train into Poland and took a US military plane from Rzeszów airport.
More importantly, the White House has confirmed Patriots for Ukraine, with training to start immediately in Germany and deliveries to take place in a few weeks. That's what air defense doing!
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:20 AM on December 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
More importantly, the White House has confirmed Patriots for Ukraine, with training to start immediately in Germany and deliveries to take place in a few weeks. That's what air defense doing!
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:20 AM on December 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
It seems like an extremely short time between training and delivery? Either Patriot is easier to operate than people have been letting on, or someone got a head start on their training. Or possibly contractors?
posted by Harald74 at 4:57 AM on December 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 4:57 AM on December 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Morocco will supply T-72s and spare parts to Ukraine, after ditching their neutral stance.
posted by Harald74 at 4:57 AM on December 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 4:57 AM on December 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: Zelenskyy is now in US airspace according to various people who track flights.
Standing next to Joe Biden outside the White House so he's on US soil, his first international visit since Putin's 3-Day Special started (extended by two orders of magnitude), and ONE DAY after being at the front in Bakhmut.
ISW has a rather scathing (for them) comparison between Zelenskyy's recent actions, and Putin's.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:59 PM on December 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Standing next to Joe Biden outside the White House so he's on US soil, his first international visit since Putin's 3-Day Special started (extended by two orders of magnitude), and ONE DAY after being at the front in Bakhmut.
ISW has a rather scathing (for them) comparison between Zelenskyy's recent actions, and Putin's.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:59 PM on December 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
from the 12/20 ISW linked above:
posted by Sauce Trough at 1:26 PM on December 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Lukashenko is likely delaying acceding to Putin’s larger demands - such as committing Belarusian forces to join the invasion against Ukraine - by making smaller concessions that he has stonewalled for years.yeah, if I were a fascist shitbird of a nation that is semi-aligned with a bigger shitbird regime, I'd reach for the General Franco playbook too.
posted by Sauce Trough at 1:26 PM on December 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
yeah, if I were a fascist shitbird of a nation that is semi-aligned with a bigger shitbird regime, I'd reach for the General Franco playbook too.
Especially considering that he died in bed at the ripe old age of 82 in 1975, 30 years after Hitler's corpse was burned in a roadside ditch in Berlin. I think Luka is by now the reigning world champion of fence-sitting, we'll see how long it lasts.
posted by Harald74 at 11:20 PM on December 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Especially considering that he died in bed at the ripe old age of 82 in 1975, 30 years after Hitler's corpse was burned in a roadside ditch in Berlin. I think Luka is by now the reigning world champion of fence-sitting, we'll see how long it lasts.
posted by Harald74 at 11:20 PM on December 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Russian leadership has announced a plan for military reforms. Analyst Dara Massicot has some thoughts (the first tweet is missing for some reason, possibly this link works better).
One reform she thinks is probably a good one from a Russian point of view is the splitting of the Western Military District into two smaller ones, much like during the Cold War. They will get the same names - Moscow and Leningrad Military District. For those of you doing a double take on the last one, it's because the oblast surrounding St. Petersburg kept the old name even as the city changed name. The city is not even part of the oblast, btw. With both Sweden and Finland looking to join Nato there is probably more than enough work for the two new military districts to sink their teeth into.
There was a lot of talk about building divisions into brigades, and even raising new divisions and increasing the total size of the Russian Armed Forces. She's raising the very fair question of how this is going to be accomplished, with the lack of officers for training and leadership, the state of the facilities to house them, the lack of equipment etc. But one thing I as an amateur observer found interesting is the pivot away from Battalion Tactical Groups from the previous reforms, a structure more suited for expeditionary warfare, and back into divisional units, a structure intended to work in major land warfare. This is pretty similar to the US having deployed Brigade Combat Teams for years now, and now starting to reorganize back into divisions again. I hope to see some writing on this eventually.
Of course, all of this is going to take an enormous amount of resources, which tend to end up at yacht manufacturers rather than the military, which Massicot wryly acknowledged: "If there is anything the last decade and war in Ukraine have shown, Sergey Kuzhegetovich Shoygu is the definitely the wrong person to give a lot of money to and ask to fix the military's problem".
posted by Harald74 at 1:17 AM on December 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
One reform she thinks is probably a good one from a Russian point of view is the splitting of the Western Military District into two smaller ones, much like during the Cold War. They will get the same names - Moscow and Leningrad Military District. For those of you doing a double take on the last one, it's because the oblast surrounding St. Petersburg kept the old name even as the city changed name. The city is not even part of the oblast, btw. With both Sweden and Finland looking to join Nato there is probably more than enough work for the two new military districts to sink their teeth into.
There was a lot of talk about building divisions into brigades, and even raising new divisions and increasing the total size of the Russian Armed Forces. She's raising the very fair question of how this is going to be accomplished, with the lack of officers for training and leadership, the state of the facilities to house them, the lack of equipment etc. But one thing I as an amateur observer found interesting is the pivot away from Battalion Tactical Groups from the previous reforms, a structure more suited for expeditionary warfare, and back into divisional units, a structure intended to work in major land warfare. This is pretty similar to the US having deployed Brigade Combat Teams for years now, and now starting to reorganize back into divisions again. I hope to see some writing on this eventually.
Of course, all of this is going to take an enormous amount of resources, which tend to end up at yacht manufacturers rather than the military, which Massicot wryly acknowledged: "If there is anything the last decade and war in Ukraine have shown, Sergey Kuzhegetovich Shoygu is the definitely the wrong person to give a lot of money to and ask to fix the military's problem".
posted by Harald74 at 1:17 AM on December 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
The NY Times have investigated the war crimes committed in Bucha, and released this report.
(Extra chilling for me is that my wife's family live 2.5 hours drive away from where the offending unit's home base is.)
posted by Harald74 at 5:27 AM on December 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
(Extra chilling for me is that my wife's family live 2.5 hours drive away from where the offending unit's home base is.)
posted by Harald74 at 5:27 AM on December 22, 2022 [7 favorites]
Reading the Massicot link above -- Russians plan to expand military, including 3 new divisions, upgrading 10+ brigades to divisions, 2 new air assault divisions, eight new bomber regiments, a new fighter regiment, six helicopter brigades...
Keep in mind that before the war the Russian GDP was roughly equivalent to Canada's.
(though I don't know how the Russian GDP is computed pre or post yacht tax)
posted by Sauce Trough at 11:06 AM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Keep in mind that before the war the Russian GDP was roughly equivalent to Canada's.
(though I don't know how the Russian GDP is computed pre or post yacht tax)
posted by Sauce Trough at 11:06 AM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
A sign of the times here in Finland: The type of pickles I prefer for sandwichmaking are know as “Russian pickles”, because they’re in the Russian style, though the brand I buy is Polish. Now they’ve been rebranded as “whole fermented pickles”
posted by Kattullus at 11:40 AM on December 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 11:40 AM on December 22, 2022 [9 favorites]
Now they’ve been rebranded as “whole fermented pickles”
Freedom pickles!
posted by Dip Flash at 5:40 PM on December 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
Freedom pickles!
posted by Dip Flash at 5:40 PM on December 22, 2022 [6 favorites]
AP: Russia scrubs Mariupol's Ukraine identity, builds on death
Throughout Mariupol, Russian workers are tearing down bombed-out buildings at a rate of at least one a day, hauling away shattered bodies with the debris.
posted by Kabanos at 6:00 PM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Throughout Mariupol, Russian workers are tearing down bombed-out buildings at a rate of at least one a day, hauling away shattered bodies with the debris.
posted by Kabanos at 6:00 PM on December 22, 2022 [2 favorites]
Open Source Intelligencier ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki@mastodon.social)
1/ Russian female convicts may soon be serving on the front lines in Ukraine, according to Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. He has suggested that they could serve in sabotage units and as snipers, replicating their roles in World War II. ⬇️posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:04 PM on December 22, 2022
It's clearly a good idea to give convicts sniper training.
posted by jeffburdges at 4:07 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by jeffburdges at 4:07 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
It is not like all prisoners are murders. I'd guess a lot are incarcerated for non violent crimes or things that shouldn't be a crime at all.
posted by Mitheral at 6:45 AM on December 23, 2022
posted by Mitheral at 6:45 AM on December 23, 2022
On the one hand, it highlights the limitations the Russians are facing, that they need to draw on convicts to try and get enough bodies for the meat grinder. On the other hand, I can completely understand why a person stuck in a Russian penal colony for decades or life might decide that taking the gamble of signing up to be a shocktroop for Wagner is a reasonable choice.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:55 AM on December 23, 2022
posted by Dip Flash at 6:55 AM on December 23, 2022
There's also the question of how much choice they're actually given.
posted by trig at 8:00 AM on December 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by trig at 8:00 AM on December 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
Any time prisoner recruitment comes up, I think about that nytimes story linked up thread, which described a convicted murderer 20 years into his sentence who signed up with Wagner, surrendered at the first opportunity, gave a bunch of interviews about it, was handed back over to the Russians in a prisoner exchange, and then recieved a fair trial and appropriate punishment was brutally murdered without trial in a telegram video. I'm omitting details, because even the New York Times' matter-of-fact description is something that lingers with me. I don't know why that's the thing that sticks for me, given the equally harrowing descriptions of things like civilian murder and torture rooms for children, but I guess it's gotta be something.
The Wagner recruitment of prisoners thing is entirely evil.
posted by surlyben at 8:12 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Wagner recruitment of prisoners thing is entirely evil.
posted by surlyben at 8:12 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Wagner thing is entirely evil. Saved you a few bytes.
posted by hippybear at 8:45 AM on December 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 8:45 AM on December 23, 2022 [5 favorites]
A certain Dmitry Rogozin, former head of RosCosmos, who had already expressed his wish to join the fighting in Crimea in 2014 apparently had a (brief and minimal) flight towards space courtesy of some Ukrainian partisans, and is now somewhat indisposed.
The Ukrainian State Border Guard service posted the following note:
posted by Stoneshop at 9:30 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Ukrainian State Border Guard service posted the following note:
Rogozin was "informed" that he is in Ukraine illegallyTranslated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
22 December 2022 11:38
Violation of the state border of Ukraine entails responsibility.
Recently, the State Border Guard Service found that a citizen of the Russian Federation D. Rogozin illegally crossed the Ukrainian border and found his place of residence in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region.
Border guards were unable to personally serve the report to the offender, so it was "handed over" to this person during his birthday celebration by concerned friends.
The Border Guard Service once again calls on Russians not to violate Ukrainian legislation, responsibility will come!
posted by Stoneshop at 9:30 AM on December 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
Secret train and a government plane: how Zelenskiy made his high-security trip to the US
The Guardian picture essay Ukraine’s Evgeny Maloletka: agency photographer of 2022
Russia has shouted about escalation long enough. Opinion by Keir Giles
posted by srboisvert at 9:56 AM on December 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Guardian picture essay Ukraine’s Evgeny Maloletka: agency photographer of 2022
Russia has shouted about escalation long enough. Opinion by Keir Giles
posted by srboisvert at 9:56 AM on December 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
was brutally murdered without trial in a telegram videothat poor bastard.
warning, folks, do not dig into this -- the reddit tag "not safe for life" which implies "no one should watch this" is aptly applied to this event.
I hope Prigozhin is captured, tried, and slow cooked in sewage in the aftermath of this shit. War pig doesn't even begin to describe that motherfucker.
(edit: Prigozhin is basically the Elon Musk of Wagner, if you don't know the name)
posted by Sauce Trough at 3:17 PM on December 23, 2022
This is a bit of a side note, but here is A Conversation with Fiona Hill on Russia, Vladimir Putin, and Ukraine from the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall from eight days ago. There's a lot of skipping to do at the beginning but once the conversation really starts, it gets pretty interesting. She ties in twitter and the war and Putin's strategies and a lot of stuff that maybe others have said before, but that hasn't hit me quite this way before.
posted by hippybear at 3:25 PM on December 23, 2022
posted by hippybear at 3:25 PM on December 23, 2022
The Seller And Surveyor Became The Most Effective Combat Anti-Tank Weapon In Ukraine
Perun: Bakhmut & The Ukraine Trench War - fortifications, attrition, and lessons
posted by srboisvert at 6:43 AM on December 24, 2022
Perun: Bakhmut & The Ukraine Trench War - fortifications, attrition, and lessons
posted by srboisvert at 6:43 AM on December 24, 2022
Kremlin adviser Rogozin has a more serious injury. He is heading to Moscow for treatment.
Translated from Russian Warspeak: He is heading to Moscow for burial.
And from the article: "According to the Russian-language server of the BBC station, the affected hotel area is about 20 kilometers from the front line." Ukraine has several pieces of artillery with at least double that range; celebrating your birthday that close to the front is as good as an invitation to send a present.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:42 AM on December 24, 2022
Translated from Russian Warspeak: He is heading to Moscow for burial.
And from the article: "According to the Russian-language server of the BBC station, the affected hotel area is about 20 kilometers from the front line." Ukraine has several pieces of artillery with at least double that range; celebrating your birthday that close to the front is as good as an invitation to send a present.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:42 AM on December 24, 2022
I liked this part:
The Ukrainian border service pointed out that Rogozin was in Donetsk illegally. “The border guards could not personally deliver the relevant protocol to Rogozin, who broke the law, so conscientious colleagues handed it to him at the time of his birthday celebration,” the service said.posted by achrise at 9:54 AM on December 24, 2022
Jake Broe interviews Perun
Perun: The Biggest Challenges for Ukraine | Jake Broe Podcast (E011)
posted by srboisvert at 11:13 AM on December 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Perun: The Biggest Challenges for Ukraine | Jake Broe Podcast (E011)
posted by srboisvert at 11:13 AM on December 24, 2022 [1 favorite]
Putin says Russia ready to negotiate over Ukraine [reuters]
""We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them - we are not the ones refusing to negotiate, they are," Putin told Rossiya 1 state television in the interview."
lol.
posted by porpoise at 5:23 AM on December 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
""We are ready to negotiate with everyone involved about acceptable solutions, but that is up to them - we are not the ones refusing to negotiate, they are," Putin told Rossiya 1 state television in the interview."
lol.
posted by porpoise at 5:23 AM on December 25, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Engels air base has been hit again. The Russians claimed they shot down a drone, but the wreckage killed three people.
posted by Harald74 at 10:29 PM on December 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:29 PM on December 25, 2022 [3 favorites]
I’m a long-time fan of the hypnotic metal forging videos from Ukrainian YouTuber shurap (Dmitry Shevchenko), who has managed to keep his channel going throughout the war. Well, you may remember the photos circulating back in the summer of a Russian BMP gun barrel that appeared to have been bored wildly out of center. Someone apparently sent shurap a few sections of that barrel, and now he’s posted a video of re-forging the pieces of the barrel into a tantō sword blade.
posted by mubba at 11:25 AM on December 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by mubba at 11:25 AM on December 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
That blade will KEAL.
posted by clavdivs at 2:33 PM on December 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 2:33 PM on December 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
Someone apparently sent shurap a few sections of that barrel, and now he’s posted a video of re-forging the pieces of the barrel into a tantō sword blade.
The mid-forge pause for tea was pretty good.
It was a bit of a year for this facility you might have heard of: Chornobyl NPP 2022: Recap. Auto-translate from Ukrainian to English subtitles on YouTube works pretty well for this since the narration is quite clear.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:21 PM on December 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
The mid-forge pause for tea was pretty good.
It was a bit of a year for this facility you might have heard of: Chornobyl NPP 2022: Recap. Auto-translate from Ukrainian to English subtitles on YouTube works pretty well for this since the narration is quite clear.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:21 PM on December 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
mubba: and now he’s posted a video of re-forging the pieces of the barrel into a tantō sword blade
So who's the Ukrainian Jack Churchill?
posted by Stoneshop at 10:03 PM on December 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
So who's the Ukrainian Jack Churchill?
posted by Stoneshop at 10:03 PM on December 26, 2022 [1 favorite]
It looks like Russian oligarch defenestrations are back on: Pavel Antov and Vladimir Bidenov seem to have succumbed to misadventure within a couple of days of each other, at the same hotel.
posted by pulposus at 10:18 PM on December 26, 2022
posted by pulposus at 10:18 PM on December 26, 2022
The Guardian quotes Ukraine foreign minister Kuleba saying that Ukraine is aiming for a peace summit at the UN at the end of February. “Russia can only be invited if it’s faced a war crimes tribunal first.”
He also says training on the Patriot system will be done in less than six months, and that the US giving them one opens the door for other countries to do the same.
posted by boogieboy at 10:31 PM on December 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
He also says training on the Patriot system will be done in less than six months, and that the US giving them one opens the door for other countries to do the same.
posted by boogieboy at 10:31 PM on December 26, 2022 [3 favorites]
The revenge of history in Ukraine: year of war has shaken up world order by Patrick Wintour for the Guardian. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 4:15 AM on December 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
Again, national stories will play their part in testing that resolve. Moscow had bet on a return to American isolationism and a Trump triumph in the midterm elections in November. The theory was that in swing districts, Americans would rise up against the cost of gas and the war. It is true a slow erosion of support for the war among Republicans emerged in some polls, but Joe Biden seemed to tell a more compelling story about democracy under threat in the US and in Europe.Even though I excerpted a part of the second half of this article, the first half is more remarkable, going over the historical self-images of Russia and Ukraine and how they’ve changed, but it needs to be read as a whole.
As a result, Biden has been left with greater scope than expected to continue to shape his own Ukraine policy in the next two years.
At the start of December, Michael McCaul, the lead Republican on the House foreign affairs committee, defined that scope by saying Republicans would not be advocating an end to US funding, but greater scrutiny and decisiveness. Given Biden has provided Ukraine with more than $18.6bn in security assistance and $13bn in direct economic assistance, it was hardly surprising McCaul demanded more accountability for US spending. But his main point was different. “The problem right now is Iranian drones are going into Crimea, but the Ukrainians can’t hit those Iranian drones unless they have the longer-range artillery called the ATACMS [army tactical missile system]. For some reason … [the Biden administration] will not put those weapons into Ukraine. When we give [Ukraine] what they need, they win. If we don’t, it’s going to be a long and protracted war.” They are not the remarks of a man bent on reviving the American isolationist tradition.
If the US is for the moment closed off as a choke point, Putin’s next best option was Berlin. But the energy blackmail he directed at Germany now looks as likely to explode in his own face as bring about German deindustrialisation.
Cologne Cathedral’s lights are switched off in an effort to reduce dependence on imported natural gas from Russia and impose energy-saving measures in Cologne, Germany.
Through a mixture of state planning and individual parsimony, Germany has weaned itself off Russian energy, an extraordinary achievement for a country that was dependent on Russia for 55% of its gas. German industry has reduced gas consumption by about 25% since the year’s start, while production has only fallen by 1.4%. The state has found alternative suppliers, including in Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium and France.
posted by Kattullus at 4:15 AM on December 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
I think I read somewhere in this thread (or a predecessor) that a lot of that $18.6bn takes the form of existing older ordnance & materiel being sent to Ukraine, which results in new orders to suppliers to replace it, in some cases with updated and even more expensive stuff. These orders directly benefit many states and congressional districts, ones with both Republican and Democrat representatives. No one wants that flow to stop.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:00 AM on December 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 5:00 AM on December 27, 2022 [2 favorites]
On a bit of a personal note. I'm Estonian, and the closest Russain border crossing is about 80 miles away. I'm old enough to have lived through the tail end of the USSR, and the new independence. The threat of Russian invasion has been ever present, as a kind of background radiation of a possibility, a constant danger. And this invasion has entirely destroyed that. Russia is now a joke. And I don't think this can be reversed. I mentioned in one of these threads that my defense league friends now joke about which parts of Russia to conquer when they invade. I'm not sure if this makes sense for people who don't live daily in a situation where your freedom and independence is constantly under pretty plausible threat. But the way the war in Ukraine has been going... nobody is afraid anymore.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 5:12 AM on December 27, 2022 [31 favorites]
posted by Pyrogenesis at 5:12 AM on December 27, 2022 [31 favorites]
I swear, I promise you, I checked the link's provenance and everything, but: (Meduza) Putin gives eight golden ‘rings of power’ to CIS leaders, keeping another for himself
posted by cendawanita at 5:25 AM on December 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 5:25 AM on December 27, 2022 [10 favorites]
pulposus: Pavel Antov and Vladimir Bidenov seem to have succumbed to misadventure
Bidenov is said to have suffered heart failure due to binge drinking and drug overdose, which reminded me of some spy thriller I read in my youth, which started (paraphrased): "The guy at my feet was definitely dead, from heart failure as any medical professional would be able to attest. Hearts tend to fail when there's six inches of sharp steel sticking through them, but anyway, heart failure it was." And drug overdose? Lots of stuff can be classed as drugs; some have a remarkably low LD50.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:52 AM on December 27, 2022
Bidenov is said to have suffered heart failure due to binge drinking and drug overdose, which reminded me of some spy thriller I read in my youth, which started (paraphrased): "The guy at my feet was definitely dead, from heart failure as any medical professional would be able to attest. Hearts tend to fail when there's six inches of sharp steel sticking through them, but anyway, heart failure it was." And drug overdose? Lots of stuff can be classed as drugs; some have a remarkably low LD50.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:52 AM on December 27, 2022
The common factor, or at least a particularly prominent common factor seems to be that they've voiced dissatisfaction with the Special Military Operation. Of course there will be more dissatisfied oligarchs, as the sanctions by and large keeps them from oligarching to their heart's content, but Putin has so much as decreed that they should just swallow that setback for the Greatness of Russia. Terminating them gets rid of those voices, and will likely realign others with the SMO.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:12 PM on December 27, 2022
posted by Stoneshop at 12:12 PM on December 27, 2022
Pod Save The World has put together a compilation of their reporting about the war from 2022. It's an interesting document of how things were back when Then was Now. Looking Back On The War In Ukraine [1h20m]
posted by hippybear at 6:56 AM on December 28, 2022
posted by hippybear at 6:56 AM on December 28, 2022
An Ukrainian review of the Russian BMP-3, with a couple of remarks comparing it to the Soviet BMP-1 and 2.
Summary: it's quite a decent vehicle we have captured here.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:30 AM on December 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
Summary: it's quite a decent vehicle we have captured here.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:30 AM on December 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
An Ukrainian review of the Russian BMP-3, with a couple of remarks comparing it to the Soviet BMP-1 and 2.
I'm glad this got linked, I found that slice of life review of the vehicle by the people now using it interesting.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:20 AM on December 30, 2022
I'm glad this got linked, I found that slice of life review of the vehicle by the people now using it interesting.
posted by Dip Flash at 11:20 AM on December 30, 2022
I haven't seen much of a rundown as to why these specific people were killed.
You're looking for a coherent pattern where part of the point is that there deliberately isn't one. A big part of why a dictator like Putin kills is to let those who are still alive know that he can and will kill and sometimes at whim. This way everyone has to work extra hard to please him.
posted by srboisvert at 2:16 PM on December 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
You're looking for a coherent pattern where part of the point is that there deliberately isn't one. A big part of why a dictator like Putin kills is to let those who are still alive know that he can and will kill and sometimes at whim. This way everyone has to work extra hard to please him.
posted by srboisvert at 2:16 PM on December 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Retired general Mick Ryans thoughts on the war in 2023.
posted by Harald74 at 11:34 PM on December 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 11:34 PM on December 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Zelensky's New Year's address is on YT with subtitles and it's worth a watch.
posted by Harald74 at 4:41 AM on January 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 4:41 AM on January 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Newest independent-ish Russian estimates of the HIMARS strike on Makiivka yesterday seem to agree with the Ukrainians - around 400 dead and 300 wounded, an entire reserve infantry battalion blown apart including their vehicles. Do bear in mind that New Year is bigger than Christmas in most ex Soviet countries, but I guess we still know which side was more drunk...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:39 PM on January 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:39 PM on January 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Girkin is unhappy again, which is balm for my soul.
posted by Harald74 at 1:08 PM on January 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:08 PM on January 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
If it's 63 or 400 dead, it's still, taken together with the ammo and vehicles, a pretty good ROI on those four (according to the Russian sources) missiles.
And keep in mind that Russia has still not knocked out a single HIMARS launcher.
posted by Harald74 at 1:10 PM on January 2, 2023
And keep in mind that Russia has still not knocked out a single HIMARS launcher.
posted by Harald74 at 1:10 PM on January 2, 2023
This thread by Bad Baltic Takes is a little refresher on how Central and Eastern Europe is reported on in the media, and how it would look if the tables were turned.
I married a Balt, so I've had those skewed impressions corrected one by one over the years. (I'm still wrong as heck about other parts of the world, surely.)
posted by Harald74 at 1:14 PM on January 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
I married a Balt, so I've had those skewed impressions corrected one by one over the years. (I'm still wrong as heck about other parts of the world, surely.)
posted by Harald74 at 1:14 PM on January 2, 2023 [9 favorites]
Zelensky's New Year's address is on YT with subtitles and it's worth a watch.
This one is not subtitled (yet) but its message is clear nonetheless.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:35 PM on January 2, 2023
This one is not subtitled (yet) but its message is clear nonetheless.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:35 PM on January 2, 2023
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:29 PM on January 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
1/ The accounts of mobilised Russian soldiers who survived the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on Makiivka are beginning to emerge. Many more than the official figure of 63 are reported to have died. "We are cleaning their brains off our boots," says one survivor. ⬇️One estimated 400 soldiers were there, although some escaped after the first missile hit.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:29 PM on January 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's been rumbled about here and there, well here's some actual insight on the topic of Can the US seize Russian assets to aid Ukraine in the Lawfare podcast.
It's pretty dense, technical and interesting. tl,dr - "kinda, but it's a real sticky issue."
posted by From Bklyn at 7:33 AM on January 3, 2023
It's pretty dense, technical and interesting. tl,dr - "kinda, but it's a real sticky issue."
posted by From Bklyn at 7:33 AM on January 3, 2023
Stoneshop: This one is not subtitled (yet)
Russian soldier, my name is Captain Himars and I am your chance to return home alive.
Give me the coordinates of the place where the armored vehicles are amassed, where the headquarters are, ammo storages, and I won't attack the barracks.
I will only destroy the tanks, artillery, shells and fuel storages.
Then nobody will send you into a meat-grinder attack. This way you will save your life and the life of your friends.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:01 AM on January 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russian soldier, my name is Captain Himars and I am your chance to return home alive.
Give me the coordinates of the place where the armored vehicles are amassed, where the headquarters are, ammo storages, and I won't attack the barracks.
I will only destroy the tanks, artillery, shells and fuel storages.
Then nobody will send you into a meat-grinder attack. This way you will save your life and the life of your friends.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:01 AM on January 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Reuters.com: Russia blames its soldiers' mobile phone use for deadly missile strike
posted by Harald74 at 10:44 PM on January 3, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 10:44 PM on January 3, 2023
Girkin being snide towards Russian leadership again, after a Russian general claims there would be total secrecy surrounding the next great Russian offensive.
posted by Harald74 at 12:01 AM on January 4, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 12:01 AM on January 4, 2023
William Spaniel has made a nice summary of why the battle of Hostomel Airport was so strategically decisive in the war.
posted by rongorongo at 4:42 AM on January 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by rongorongo at 4:42 AM on January 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sounds like Russians aren't buying the cell phone explanation.
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
They're also noting that nobody is being held responsible for storing fuel and ammunition in the same place.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:15 AM on January 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
1/ Recriminations are continuing in Russia about the disastrous Ukrainian HIMARS strike on mobilised soldiers in Makiivka. The Russian ministry of defence's statement blaming the mobilised themselves for giving away their location is being heavily criticised as a cover-up. ⬇️
They're also noting that nobody is being held responsible for storing fuel and ammunition in the same place.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:15 AM on January 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
They're also noting that nobody is being held responsible for storing fuel and ammunition in the same place.
Russian logic, probably. "If we store them separately and the ammunition blows up we have nothing to bring to the front, and if the fuel blows up we have no way to bring the ammunition to the front. So storing them together saves finding a second storage."
posted by Stoneshop at 9:32 AM on January 4, 2023
Russian logic, probably. "If we store them separately and the ammunition blows up we have nothing to bring to the front, and if the fuel blows up we have no way to bring the ammunition to the front. So storing them together saves finding a second storage."
posted by Stoneshop at 9:32 AM on January 4, 2023
There's this strange bit of palace intrigue, courtesy of Putin's Belarusian puppet:
Documents released by hackers suggest Lukashenko may not have taken PCR tests before meetings with Putin
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:54 PM on January 4, 2023
Documents released by hackers suggest Lukashenko may not have taken PCR tests before meetings with Putin
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:54 PM on January 4, 2023
If after all this Putin gets taken out by COVID, it's going to be quite anticlimactic.
posted by hippybear at 2:26 PM on January 4, 2023
posted by hippybear at 2:26 PM on January 4, 2023
Putin getting taken out by Lukashenko would be quite a plot twist!
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:28 PM on January 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:28 PM on January 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
There was an interesting article in the NYTimes today about unverified Ukrainian claims to have killed around 1,200 Russian soldiers in a series of strikes on barracks in the past few days. One item that jumped out at me was this:
Lacking sufficient trucks and other vehicles to disperse soldiers within range of Ukrainian missiles, he said, Russian commanders have left large groups congregated — and vulnerable. “They need to concentrate them just to move them from point A to point B,” Mr. Hrabsky said.
Almost a year of fighting and the Russian army still can't round up enough trucks and vans to bus its soldiers around?
posted by Dip Flash at 5:51 PM on January 4, 2023
Lacking sufficient trucks and other vehicles to disperse soldiers within range of Ukrainian missiles, he said, Russian commanders have left large groups congregated — and vulnerable. “They need to concentrate them just to move them from point A to point B,” Mr. Hrabsky said.
Almost a year of fighting and the Russian army still can't round up enough trucks and vans to bus its soldiers around?
posted by Dip Flash at 5:51 PM on January 4, 2023
Dip Flash: “They need to concentrate them just to move them from point A to point B,” Mr. Hrabsky said.
I doubt that's the real reason. To move 100 Mobiks from point A to point B you need the same total transport capacity as to move them from [A1, A2, ... An] to [B1, B2, ... Bn], and the latter more easily allows you to use small vans instead of trucks. Also, if one gets hit or breaks down you lose a smaller part of your total capacity.
The commanders just want to be able to keep an eye on their Mobiks, and that's easier if they're kept together. Also, you need less communication equipment (which would probably be those mobile phones allowing geolocation); instead you can just yell at them, kick them and wave a gun at them if they're hesitant. My impression is that Russian commanders have a strong desire to give orders that way.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:05 AM on January 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
I doubt that's the real reason. To move 100 Mobiks from point A to point B you need the same total transport capacity as to move them from [A1, A2, ... An] to [B1, B2, ... Bn], and the latter more easily allows you to use small vans instead of trucks. Also, if one gets hit or breaks down you lose a smaller part of your total capacity.
The commanders just want to be able to keep an eye on their Mobiks, and that's easier if they're kept together. Also, you need less communication equipment (which would probably be those mobile phones allowing geolocation); instead you can just yell at them, kick them and wave a gun at them if they're hesitant. My impression is that Russian commanders have a strong desire to give orders that way.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:05 AM on January 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
France is sending light tanks to Ukraine. As a consequence there's renewed talk within Germany about sending (bigger) tanks to Ukraine, including within Scholz's party.
I still don't quite understand why HIMARS and so on but not bigger battle tanks?
posted by UN at 8:46 AM on January 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
I still don't quite understand why HIMARS and so on but not bigger battle tanks?
posted by UN at 8:46 AM on January 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
...and it's official, Germany will send Marder to Ukraine.
No Leo's yet though.
posted by UN at 11:36 AM on January 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
No Leo's yet though.
posted by UN at 11:36 AM on January 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
I still don't quite understand why HIMARS and so on but not bigger battle tanks?
During this war, there's been calls for the US to give UKR more _____________ (fill in the blank with M1 Abrams tanks, Patriot Missile Systems, F16s, A10s, etc).
Those calls often come from politicians, reporters, or those with little knowledge of weapons.
A 🧵 to discuss.
From April, but not a lot has changed:
1. It takes training time to run a new tank platform, both in the battlefied and in the repair houses.
2. The logistics chain for Abrams includes jet fuel. It's not cheap or plentiful on the battlefield, and its a a gas guzzler. If EU is struggling with energy, I assume it to be worse on the front line.
3. There's already a ton of Soviet model tanks available, and more were captured in September.
Speculating here: maybe the Abrams production line has its hands full filling NATO orders to backfill after sending their Soviet tanks out to soldiers already trained on them. Poland, for example, has a legitimate concern about Belarus threatening an invasion and just yesterday inked a deal to buy more.
posted by pwnguin at 12:05 PM on January 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
During this war, there's been calls for the US to give UKR more _____________ (fill in the blank with M1 Abrams tanks, Patriot Missile Systems, F16s, A10s, etc).
Those calls often come from politicians, reporters, or those with little knowledge of weapons.
A 🧵 to discuss.
From April, but not a lot has changed:
1. It takes training time to run a new tank platform, both in the battlefied and in the repair houses.
2. The logistics chain for Abrams includes jet fuel. It's not cheap or plentiful on the battlefield, and its a a gas guzzler. If EU is struggling with energy, I assume it to be worse on the front line.
3. There's already a ton of Soviet model tanks available, and more were captured in September.
Speculating here: maybe the Abrams production line has its hands full filling NATO orders to backfill after sending their Soviet tanks out to soldiers already trained on them. Poland, for example, has a legitimate concern about Belarus threatening an invasion and just yesterday inked a deal to buy more.
posted by pwnguin at 12:05 PM on January 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
Nah, the US has thousands of Abrams in storage to give away if it were a good idea and we felt like it. Granted some of them are almost certainly M1A1 and maybe even straight M1 with the old smaller gun, but still.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:46 PM on January 5, 2023
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:46 PM on January 5, 2023
Bradleys are go:
WH correspondent Jennifer Jacobs on Twitter
Brads will come with TOW missiles.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:05 PM on January 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
WH correspondent Jennifer Jacobs on Twitter
Scoop: US **and Germany** will send armored vehicles to Ukraine, a significant upgrade in firepower urgently sought by @ZelenskyyUa.
US will send Bradleys; Germany to send Marders, sources tell
@mcnienaber @PeterMartin_PCM & me.
Biden to speak to @OlafScholz today, I’m told.
Brads will come with TOW missiles.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:05 PM on January 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
A TOW missile is a missile with a grappling hook and a "return to home" program so it goes out and snags enemy property and drags it back for analysis?
posted by hippybear at 3:14 PM on January 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 3:14 PM on January 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
A TOW missile is a missile with a grappling hook and a "return to home" program so it goes out and snags enemy property and drags it back for analysis?
In Ukraine, that's a farmer.
TOW missile
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:19 PM on January 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
In Ukraine, that's a farmer.
TOW missile
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:19 PM on January 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Darn it! Just missed the season for hanging missile TOW.
posted by SPrintF at 4:33 PM on January 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by SPrintF at 4:33 PM on January 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
A TOW missile is a missile with a grappling hook and a "return to home" program so it goes out and snags enemy property and drags it back for analysis?
No, you're thinking of the Fulton Recovery System.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 4:52 PM on January 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
No, you're thinking of the Fulton Recovery System.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 4:52 PM on January 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
I think I first encountered it linked in a comment here long ago, but this interview with Abu TOW is interesting. At one point there was a rumor he went to fight in Ukraine but I don't think that ever actually happened.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:50 PM on January 5, 2023
posted by Dip Flash at 6:50 PM on January 5, 2023
Artoir on Twitter
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:54 PM on January 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
People have been scratching their heads wondering what Putin is up to with his unilateral Christmas ceasefire. @InformNapalm and their sources in occupied Donbas think they know what's up - a series of false flag attacks on churches.InformNapalm is an OSINT group.
Sharing the full statement in🇬🇧below;
1/7
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:54 PM on January 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
France is also sending a number of AMX-10RC, a six-wheeled AFV with a turreted 105mm. It's not exactly a light tank, as it has wheels (six large ones, with skid steering, which is a bit unusual) in place of tracks. In the Norwegian military it would have been called a tank destroyer, I guess the US would maybe call it an assault gun, but French doctrine called for these to be used for armoured reconnaissance. I guess they will be useful in a number of roles, perhaps to knock out the hundreds of small concrete pillboxes the Russians have been dotting the landscape with.
posted by Harald74 at 12:30 AM on January 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:30 AM on January 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
BTW, German is also sending a Patriot battery, which will be much appreciated, I'm sure.
posted by Harald74 at 12:37 AM on January 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:37 AM on January 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
Report from DW on the impact western deliveries of armored vehicles will have on the war - their analyst makes the point that nobody is making any new ammunition for soviet era-weapons of the type that predominated in Ukraine at the start of the conflict - and stockpiles of that are very low; hence the need for Western weapons - not just because they are technically superior but they can be used at all.
posted by rongorongo at 5:19 AM on January 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 5:19 AM on January 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Interesting bit at the end of this WSJ Article on the Bradleys et al.
Poland gave Ukraine more than 240 modernized Soviet-type tanks early in the war. Now, Poland is considering a request from Ukraine to donate its German-made Leopard main battle tanks, a senior Polish diplomat said.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:31 AM on January 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
“They are for real considering giving anything just to help Ukraine,” said a Czech official closely involved in helping ship western arms into Ukraine, who confirmed that request.
The Leopards are much more heavily armored, and more protected against antitank weapons, than the vehicles France, Germany, and the U.S. have so far offered.
Poland has more than 240 Leopard tanks, enough for two tank brigades, and plans to eventually unload all of them, said Slawomir Debski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, a Warsaw think tank close to the Polish government. The pace at which it could give those to Ukraine depends on how quickly Poland receives replacement tanks it has ordered from manufacturers in South Korea and the U.S., he said. Berlin would also need to approve.
There's growing pressure from the media in Germany to send Leopard 2 tanks (and/or allow others to send theirs). The SPD's coalition partners (Greens and FDP) are for it; now some in the SPD have openly called for the transfers as well.
Apparently Scholz is in ongoing talks with partner countries.
posted by UN at 11:28 PM on January 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Apparently Scholz is in ongoing talks with partner countries.
posted by UN at 11:28 PM on January 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Here in Ukraine filming of occupier army is not prohibited
Ukrainian woman records some trucks passing through Kamyanka, Russian soldier objects (as does her husband).
posted by Stoneshop at 4:48 AM on January 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Ukrainian woman records some trucks passing through Kamyanka, Russian soldier objects (as does her husband).
posted by Stoneshop at 4:48 AM on January 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Beau of the Fifth Column makes an interesting case that the US should be providing Reaper drones to Ukraine.
posted by Reverend John at 12:16 PM on January 7, 2023
posted by Reverend John at 12:16 PM on January 7, 2023
Beau of the Fifth Column makes an interesting case yt that the US should be providing Reaper drones to Ukraine.
I'm all for it. I'm sure it's a non-starter for a lot of reasons, but the capability of dropping hellfire missiles on The Kremlin isn't a bad thing.
posted by mikelieman at 1:32 PM on January 7, 2023
I'm all for it. I'm sure it's a non-starter for a lot of reasons, but the capability of dropping hellfire missiles on The Kremlin isn't a bad thing.
posted by mikelieman at 1:32 PM on January 7, 2023
John-Paul Himka on Twitter.
"The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) searched premises of the Ukr. Orthodox Church [MP] in 4 oblasts. Today they released pictures of their shocking findings. In addition to a Russian flag they found books on Reformation theology, Christianity in China & church-state relations."
posted by clavdivs at 9:21 PM on January 7, 2023
"The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) searched premises of the Ukr. Orthodox Church [MP] in 4 oblasts. Today they released pictures of their shocking findings. In addition to a Russian flag they found books on Reformation theology, Christianity in China & church-state relations."
posted by clavdivs at 9:21 PM on January 7, 2023
Beau of the Fifth Column makes an interesting case that the US should be providing Reaper drones to Ukraine.
I feel that he doesn't really make much of a case of why, only that they should.
I had the impressions that the Ukrainians had scaled back Bayraktar TB2 operations in the face of Russian air power and SAMs. Even thought the Reapers operate at a higher altitude, would they not face the same problems in a contested airspace? Some quick googling only got me a bunch of links stating that the US is itching to send the Ukrainians a bunch of them.
posted by Harald74 at 1:33 AM on January 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
I feel that he doesn't really make much of a case of why, only that they should.
I had the impressions that the Ukrainians had scaled back Bayraktar TB2 operations in the face of Russian air power and SAMs. Even thought the Reapers operate at a higher altitude, would they not face the same problems in a contested airspace? Some quick googling only got me a bunch of links stating that the US is itching to send the Ukrainians a bunch of them.
posted by Harald74 at 1:33 AM on January 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Religion-wise, Christmas Day also marked the first time the main Christmas mass in Pecherska Lavra in Kyiv, the Vatican of the Slavic orthodox churches, was celebrated by the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church rather than the branch that acknowledges the supremacy of the Patriarch of Moscow. The Moscow Patriarchate still holds an open lease on the Lower Lavra, but the upper churches are property of the state and that term-limited lease was not renewed on January 1st of this year. The Metropolitan Epiphanius celebrated mass yesterday in the Dormition Cathedral, which famously was blown up by the Soviets in 1941 after nearly 9 centuries of existence and only reconstructed by free Ukraine in 1998-2000. The Moscow-aligned church is very much indignant about it.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:57 AM on January 8, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:57 AM on January 8, 2023 [6 favorites]
I claim sanctuary: The Moscow Patriarchate still holds an open lease on the Lower Lavra,
Paging Eyebrows McGee.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:57 AM on January 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
Paging Eyebrows McGee.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:57 AM on January 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
EstionianWorld.com: However Russia ends the aggression against Ukraine, its hatred and its need for revenge, and the conviction in its own power and rightfulness, do not seem to be going anywhere, the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Lieutenant General Martin Herem, writes.
Interesting article on the continued threat Russia will pose after the war with Ukraine is over, seen from a NATO/EU perspective.
posted by Harald74 at 10:47 AM on January 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
Interesting article on the continued threat Russia will pose after the war with Ukraine is over, seen from a NATO/EU perspective.
posted by Harald74 at 10:47 AM on January 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
I had the impressions that the Ukrainians had scaled back Bayraktar TB2 operations in the face of Russian air power and SAMs. Even thought the Reapers operate at a higher altitude, would they not face the same problems in a contested airspace?
Those are good questions, and I don't know the answers, and the answers would definitely make a big difference on whether or not its a good idea. However, Ukraine seems to want them and the Air Force, at least, seems to want to give them, so my (possibly naive) assumption is that they would know. It seems to me that the higher ceiling and max speed of the Reapers would make them harder to hit, and with a much larger payload capacity and possibly working in groups they might be used to attack Russian air defenses, with other drones attacking the SAM launcher that targeted the first drone. Maybe we could even provide retired MQ-1 Predators to fly bait missions. I am a little surprised that they apparently can't carry the AGM-88 HARM. Attacking enemy air defenses would seem to be an ideal mission for a drone.
Interestingly, according to the Wikipedia page, it seems like there have already been a few Reapers lost to enemy forces, including the Iranian-linked Houthis in Yemen and possibly the Wagner Group in Libya. So the cat may already be out of the bag regarding the tech in the Reaper, eliminating that argument against providing them.
posted by Reverend John at 2:29 PM on January 8, 2023
Those are good questions, and I don't know the answers, and the answers would definitely make a big difference on whether or not its a good idea. However, Ukraine seems to want them and the Air Force, at least, seems to want to give them, so my (possibly naive) assumption is that they would know. It seems to me that the higher ceiling and max speed of the Reapers would make them harder to hit, and with a much larger payload capacity and possibly working in groups they might be used to attack Russian air defenses, with other drones attacking the SAM launcher that targeted the first drone. Maybe we could even provide retired MQ-1 Predators to fly bait missions. I am a little surprised that they apparently can't carry the AGM-88 HARM. Attacking enemy air defenses would seem to be an ideal mission for a drone.
Interestingly, according to the Wikipedia page, it seems like there have already been a few Reapers lost to enemy forces, including the Iranian-linked Houthis in Yemen and possibly the Wagner Group in Libya. So the cat may already be out of the bag regarding the tech in the Reaper, eliminating that argument against providing them.
posted by Reverend John at 2:29 PM on January 8, 2023
Thanks for the EstoniaWorld link, Harald74, absolutely chilling. I think that the only way to avoid this scenario is for Putin's humiliation, him being the scapegoat, and a new system of government for Russia, perhaps the dissolution of the Federation.
posted by porpoise at 4:53 PM on January 8, 2023
posted by porpoise at 4:53 PM on January 8, 2023
There was an interesting article in the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat this morning about how the EU has been helping reform a number of civilian agencies in Ukraine. YLE News, the English language service of Finland’s public broadcaster, has summarized it extensively in English:
Helsingin Sanomat spoke with the head of the European Advisory Mission (EUAM) to Ukraine Antti Hartikainen, a former colonel from the Finnish Border Guard.posted by Kattullus at 12:24 AM on January 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
The aim of the mission is to help Ukraine reform the functioning of its civil security authorities.
Ukraine, with the support of EUAM, is in the process of reforming a number of its civilian agencies, including those pertaining to its police force, border guards and customs services.
HS interviewed Hartikainen at the end of January last year, when he visited a EUAM field office in Mariupol.
Since then, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has produced a multitude of dilemmas for both Ukraine's civilian agencies and EUAM.
After briefly relocating the office to Moldova in February of last year before the invasion, EUAM has been busy assisting Ukraine in relieving congested border crossings, helping Ukrainian agricultural exports leave the country, and making sure that humanitarian aid gets to its intended destination, among other things.
EUAM and Hartikainen were also given a new mission in the spring.
"Our task was to advise on the investigation of international crimes, in practice war crimes," Hartikainen told HS.
Additionally, EUAM has been instrumental in supporting Ukrainian authorities in recently liberated areas.
"Our role is to support the proper treatment of people and the authorities, to ensure that the authorities keep control of the situation and that no one takes the law into their own hands," Hartikainen emphasised.
Hartikainen highlighted how remarkable it is for Ukraine to institute such reforms in its governance during a time of crisis.
"Despite the war, they have a strong desire to move forward with these reforms," he told HS.
As for the mood in Ukraine, Hartikainen said that the country believes it can win the war.
"When success comes, it keeps the faith alive."
Ukrainians applying traditional Petrykivka decor to one of their Mi-24 attack helicopters.
posted by Harald74 at 10:58 AM on January 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:58 AM on January 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
The Brits have let slip that they are considering providing Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to Sky News.
Is it to make it easier for Germany to greenlight Leopard 2 transfers? Poland have 240 they are probably willing to let go as they stock up on M1s and K2s, but even Finland, bordering Russia, are saying that they might send some if it becomes possible. A lot of other Leopard 2 operators might be willing to part with vehicles, or at least spare parts, ammunition and training. It seems to be common assumption that Leopard 2 is the best alternative for arming the Ukrainians with Western MBTs.
posted by Harald74 at 12:13 PM on January 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Is it to make it easier for Germany to greenlight Leopard 2 transfers? Poland have 240 they are probably willing to let go as they stock up on M1s and K2s, but even Finland, bordering Russia, are saying that they might send some if it becomes possible. A lot of other Leopard 2 operators might be willing to part with vehicles, or at least spare parts, ammunition and training. It seems to be common assumption that Leopard 2 is the best alternative for arming the Ukrainians with Western MBTs.
posted by Harald74 at 12:13 PM on January 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Everybody agrees that Russian artillery fire is down in Ukraine, but have different opinions on by just how much:
US and Ukrainian officials don’t yet have a clear or singular explanation. Russia may be rationing artillery rounds due to low supplies, or it could be part of a broader reassessment of tactics in the face of successful Ukrainian offenses.posted by Harald74 at 6:02 AM on January 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
Either way, the striking decline in artillery fire is further evidence of Russia’s increasingly weak position on the battlefield nearly a year into its invasion, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN. It also comes as Ukraine is enjoying increased military support from its western allies, with the US and Germany announcing last week that they will be providing Ukrainian forces for the first time with armored fighting vehicles, as well as another Patriot Defense missile battery that will help protect its skies.
Illia Ponamarenko's latest column in the Kyiv Independent is grimly realistic but optimistic:
The Ukrainian death toll is horrifying. We do not know the exact number, but based on estimates confirmed by Ukrainian officials, it’s way over 10,000 killed in action at this point. The price behind the relatively stable present situation now is beyond imaginable.posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:21 PM on January 10, 2023 [10 favorites]
This war is a mess.
It’s foolish to imagine it as a tale of a shining knight slaying the evil dragon in just one strike with a magic sword.
Yet, it’s even more foolish to fall into despair now — given all the progress Ukraine has already made.
Over these months, we’ve made our way from the West not giving us a chance against Russia and providing us with weapons for guerrilla warfare — to the West talking about the war until victory and sending us advanced artillery, air defense, missiles, kamikaze drones, and vehicles worth billions of dollars.
We’ve made the way from Russia standing just at the gate of Kyiv to Russia hastily recruiting convicts as cannon fodder and forming poorly-trained “volunteer battalions” motivated by nothing but a chance to earn at least some money.
Russia’s offensive potential has been degraded to the point of being able to gain just very marginal, painfully slow, and barely meaningful territorial gains in some sections of the Donbas front line, where it can still create a heavy concentration of manpower and artillery.
The Battle of Donbas has been the very focus of Russia’s war effort for over four months now. Nonetheless, it’s not even close to completing the seizure of the whole region.
So no — when Russia spends weeks and enormous resources to push the Ukrainian military out of Pisky, a small ruined town outside of Donetsk — it does not mean “the Ukrainian front is collapsing,” as some would say.
And no — when the Ukrainian military decides to retreat to yet another local defensive line following a long battle, this does not mean that “Russia is winning this war.”
Because victory comes as your enemy’s military force is defeated and destroyed to the point of being unable to keep on fighting — not when you occupy a useless heap of ruins and ashes that used to be a city.
Russian forces are apparently on the verge of taking Soledar, probably at great cost. It might be the only small victory they've had for ages, and will be spun for what it's worth in all channels. However, there has been no official confirmation yet, so we'll have to wait and see.
posted by Harald74 at 1:26 PM on January 10, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 1:26 PM on January 10, 2023
Huh, according to the latest ISW assesment, Girkin is calling for Putin's removal. That's a, hmmm, spicy development.
posted by Harald74 at 1:21 AM on January 11, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 1:21 AM on January 11, 2023 [4 favorites]
Harald74: Girkin is calling for Putin's removal.
Though he is a bit two-faced about it:
Though he is a bit two-faced about it:
Girkin caveated his criticisms with an implied loyalty to the Russian state, softening his call for Putin to leave office by stating he is against a change of presidential leadership during the war, as it would lead to military and civil "catastrophe."[25] Girkin’s criticisms, which he said he hopes will spark change even if they have "suicidal" consequences, indicate that growing frustration with the state of the war may be reaching a boiling point after nearly a year of hostilities among some milbloggers, prompting some milbloggers to reduce their self-censorship.posted by Stoneshop at 8:50 AM on January 11, 2023
Nexta on Twitter
A company is about 14 tanks.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:41 AM on January 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Office of the Polish President confirmed the transfer of a company of German Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of the creation of an international coalition.
[Includes link to Polish tweet]
A company is about 14 tanks.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:41 AM on January 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
Harald74: It is too soon, however, to count Russia out. Russian President Vladimir Putin has appointed a new military commander, General Sergei Surovikin, to lead the invasion
And after just three months, Surovikin is out again, replaced by Valery Gerasimov who had held that post at the start of the failed invasion, but was sidelined by Putin some time last May.
A rather curious move.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:47 AM on January 11, 2023
And after just three months, Surovikin is out again, replaced by Valery Gerasimov who had held that post at the start of the failed invasion, but was sidelined by Putin some time last May.
A rather curious move.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:47 AM on January 11, 2023
Interesting Twitter thread by Tatiana Stanovaya, analyst of Russian politics, about what the replacement of Surovikin with Gerasimov means. Excerpt:
What is interesting at the moment is that everyone seems to be in shock: #Prigozhin's people, military correspondents, and the military. A great many knowledgeable people seem to not get the gist of this decision either, which suggests that it is a situational and sudden move.posted by Kattullus at 2:23 PM on January 11, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is not a promotion for #Gerasimov, even if he retained his post as head of the General Staff. Personnel decisions recently have been made to the contrary: not in order to achieve something, but rather to avoid something.
Gerasimov was handed command of the military operation because of Surovikin's serious setbacks.
Since we are not able to speak of any recent military successes (to put it mildly), Putin has had to deal in recent weeks, especially after Makiivka, with the showdown and mudslinging in long, sharp, emotional debates about the eternal Russian questions:
"who is to blame" and "what to do". Gerasimov (we have seen from his public appearance alongside #Putin that he has not lost credibility to the point of being ousted altogether) has obviously had an opportunity to have his say (and there is clearly a lot to be said).
Mark Galeotti, another analyst, on this:
For Gerasimov (who were were being assured was out of favour and about to be sacked... or who was Putin's right hand man...) it is a kind of demotion, or at least the most poisoned of chalices. It's now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again. 5/posted by Harald74 at 12:44 AM on January 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
So what does this actually mean? (a) Confirmation, if we needed it, that there will be serious offensives coming, and that even Putin recognises that poor coordination has been an issue (though can even Gerasimov truly command Wagner + Kadyrovtsy?) 9/
(b) Gerasimov is hanging by a thread. I don't think this is intended to create a pretext to sack him as the war is too important and Putin can sack who he wants. But he needs some kind of win or a career ends in ignominy. This may well suggest some kinds of escalation 10/
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I don't know much about air defence in general, but with all the MANPADS available to Ukraine (Stinger, Piorun, Igla, Starstreak et al), short range systems like Skynex, Gepard, Avenger and Mistral, medium range systems like Buk, NASAMS, IRIS-T SLM and HAWK and long-range systems like S-300 and now Patriot and SAMP/T it seems like they have all niches in air defence covered. But probably not close to enough systems to cover all important targets in the country. And the logistics of it all must be really hard.
posted by Harald74 at 12:35 AM on December 14, 2022 [4 favorites]