US balloons in Chinese airspace?
February 14, 2023 6:10 AM   Subscribe

 
"Hey how can we distract everybody from the fact we just poisoned Ohio?"

"Let's make a big deal out of a weather balloon, scramble some fighters. CNN will be all over that."

"What if it escalates?"


"That's tomorrow's problem."
posted by Space Coyote at 6:19 AM on February 14, 2023 [9 favorites]


Begun, the balloon wars have
posted by thatwhichfalls at 6:25 AM on February 14, 2023 [15 favorites]


88 more until armageddon.
posted by condour75 at 6:26 AM on February 14, 2023 [30 favorites]


The key part of this article that could make both the Chinese claim and the US denial truthy:
Wang did not specify how many of the alleged US surveillance missions were flown over China’s internationally recognised territory and how many over its claims in the South China Sea, most of which are not recognised under international law.
posted by Nelson at 6:29 AM on February 14, 2023 [9 favorites]


"Hey how can we distract everybody from the fact we just poisoned Ohio?"

Not just to distract from the environmental disaster that is now occurring in Ohio, but to also distract (and justify) from one of the largest defense spending budgets!!

Yay!!

*sighs*
posted by Fizz at 6:31 AM on February 14, 2023 [4 favorites]


At least they're not claiming they're alien spacecraft. So far. I guess.
posted by tommasz at 6:34 AM on February 14, 2023


If the future of global warfare is a some sort of carny air-rifle game writ large like this I'm perfectly happy with it. Let's keep throwing up a few balloons a year, shooting them down, we can keep a scoreboard and at the end of the year somebody can stand up in front of the UN, thump a shoe on their desk and yell about balloon incursion, imperialist helium and nerf brinkmanship.

Given the spectrum of possibilities, I'll take it. It's stupid, but so is every other kind of international conflict and at least this one's minimally harmful.
posted by mhoye at 6:42 AM on February 14, 2023 [21 favorites]


The Cold War teen in me is asking whether a small-scale nuke could be carried by a balloon?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:57 AM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]


Soon this will escalate to blimps and dirigibles.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 6:57 AM on February 14, 2023 [6 favorites]


As this story has been developing I feel like I'm missing something very basic. Countries spy on each other, don't they? Like all the time? Isn't that just a thing that countries do? There's movies about it and everything! I get that each country has its counterintelligence people who are supposed to keep the other country's spies out, so I understand Americans being like internally annoyed that their country didn't catch this particular inflatable spy earlier, but the OUTRAGE about the very NOTION of being spied on? The indignation at the suggestion that maybe the Americans spy on China too? (Of course they do! Maybe even with balloons!) If someone was going to spy on my country, why, I feel like I'd rather it be with a nice soft balloon than with your usual human spies who take up parking spots and everything.
posted by saturday_morning at 6:59 AM on February 14, 2023 [31 favorites]


up, up and away with newfillter and Lutz-ified ba-loons.
posted by clavdivs at 7:01 AM on February 14, 2023


Countries spy on each other, don't they? Like all the time?
We even have treaties allowing it.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 7:06 AM on February 14, 2023 [8 favorites]


The Cold War teen in me is asking whether a small-scale nuke could be carried by a balloon?

No no… a balloon is equally capable of carrying a full-sized nuclear weapon. (Sleep well!)
posted by nathan_teske at 7:15 AM on February 14, 2023 [11 favorites]


It's interesting that we used to fly U-2s over the USSR, our very first spy plane, and then we built the SR-71, fastest aircraft ever built, a marvel of engineering, built with titanium we secretly bought from the USSR, and then the spy satellites, ever increasing technological wonders, capable of reading newspaper headlines from space, and there was a whole space race, and the postering part of getting to the moon, to show our enemies not to fuck with us.

And there was a certain level of risk involved. We weren't supposed to be doing a lot of this. The espionage was dangerous: it could lead to a hot war, more than just the proxy wars we were fighting in Vietnam and Afghanistan and elsewhere. Of course there was spying, but it was a high-stakes game. We build up entire giant government agencies with black budgets that dwarf the entirety of the non-military federal budget, all because this was so high-stakes and dangerous.

Now? now it's just like "of COURSE we all spy on each other." The DoD will release satellite imagery of Chinese labor camps on CNN, so we can get some weird political points that we can use at a G7 meeting or whatever. China releases Tiktok as a vacuum to hoover up all the data on Americans they can get. And now balloons. Like, nobody's even trying any more. "Let's just fly some balloons over other countries. So what if they shoot them down, it's not like we'd be showing off some top secret tech. It's just balloons and cameras and some propellers to control them. Hell, we'll probably get more data from them if they DO shoot them down." Because honestly, it's not like we're going to get into a shooting war with China, PARTICULARLY over fucking balloons.

We live in a weird time.
posted by nushustu at 7:20 AM on February 14, 2023 [13 favorites]


But that's what seems dangerous about this situation. Countries do spy on each other all the time, but none of them call it out because it allows all of them to maintain plausible deniability. The US calling out China forces China to call out the US. Now it's an international incident instead of an unspoken practice everyone does.

It's hard to see what purpose ratcheting up the tension like this serves. Maybe, as you say, it's just a calculation on the part of the US that China will be pissed but won't really do anything, so it's a free PR maneuver. Seems short-sighted, though. On the other hand, the Chinese spy balloon was apparently low enough to be visible to the naked eye of American civilians on the ground. That also might have been an intentional provocation.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:48 AM on February 14, 2023 [4 favorites]


The Cold War teen in me is asking whether a small-scale nuke could be carried by a balloon?

perhaps, but it might be detectable as such, balloons aren't exactly 100% reliable and there are even sneakier and more underhanded ways to deliver them to your enemies that are unstoppable

i don't feel like getting into it, but i wouldn't chose balloons
posted by pyramid termite at 7:51 AM on February 14, 2023 [2 favorites]


wanna worry about cbrne threats? shipping containers is where you begin.
posted by j_curiouser at 7:59 AM on February 14, 2023 [5 favorites]


I'm still waiting for a "blows up balloons" headline. I mean, surely that's an irresistible gag at this stage?
posted by Paul Slade at 8:05 AM on February 14, 2023 [2 favorites]


The Cold War teen in me is asking whether a small-scale nuke could be carried by a balloon?


The Japanese Balloon bombs launched from Japan in WWII, and which hit the US randomly and killed six people in one strike, carried about 35kg of payload. The W54 Mod 2 nuclear warhead weighed 25kg or so, close to 35kg when packaged (very small yield - 20 tonnes of TNT) . So yes. A balloon demonstrated to have been able to hit the US from an extended distance (albeit randomly and with no real targeting) could have carried a small nuclear device. Happy valentines day!
posted by inflatablekiwi at 8:07 AM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]


"A startling number of alternative histories wind up strengthening the marginal technology of airships and zeppelins, for example. This is a matter of flavor rather than logic, but this is a game book, after all." — John Ford, GURPS Infinite Worlds
posted by SPrintF at 8:11 AM on February 14, 2023 [6 favorites]


Hey how can we distract everybody from the fact we just poisoned Ohio?

Not that the unfolding ecological disaster there isn't a hugely (and deliberately) underreported story, but Canada is likely not joining in to shoot down balloons to help distract the American public.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:13 AM on February 14, 2023 [6 favorites]


"At first the most obvious aspect was the multiplication of balloons. The sky of Bun Hill began to be infested by balloons. On Wednesday and Saturday afternoons particularly you could scarcely look skyward for a quarter of an hour without discovering a balloon somewhere. And then one bright day Bert, motoring toward Croydon, was arrested by the insurgence of a huge, bolster-shaped monster from the Crystal Palace grounds, and obliged to dismount and watch it. It was like a bolster with a broken nose, and below it, and comparatively small, was a stiff framework bearing a man and an engine with a screw that whizzed round in front and a sort of canvas rudder behind. The framework had an air of dragging the reluctant gas-cylinder after it like a brisk little terrier towing a shy gas-distended elephant into society. The combined monster certainly travelled and steered....And that was only the beginning of a succession of strange phenomena in the heavens—cylinders, cones, pear-shaped monsters, even at last a thing of aluminium that glittered wonderfully, and that Grubb, through some confusion of ideas about armour plates, was inclined to consider a war machine."

-H.G. Wells, The War in the Air 1908.
posted by clavdivs at 8:26 AM on February 14, 2023 [4 favorites]


These balloons have been floating around at 20 / 40 / 60000 feet.

If you detonated a modern nuke of say 200kt at 20000 feet it would fry all the local electronics but otherwise would start some fires right under it and break some windows.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:31 AM on February 14, 2023 [1 favorite]


We are gonna need more carnies at NORAD.
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 8:34 AM on February 14, 2023


Number 10 in Chinese numerology.
posted by Brian B. at 8:35 AM on February 14, 2023


Canada is likely not joining in to shoot down balloons to help distract the American public.
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is a combined organization of the United States and Canada that provides aerospace warning, air sovereignty, and protection for Canada and the continental United States.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:35 AM on February 14, 2023 [1 favorite]


Exactly.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:45 AM on February 14, 2023 [1 favorite]


Why are the republicans in congress so upset about Biden and the balloons? Is it because these gasbags feel like they’re being replaced by real bags of gas in supplying info to the other side?
posted by njohnson23 at 8:49 AM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]


US Says No Sign Three Downed Aerial Objects Were Chinese Or Spying
US authorities "thus far haven't seen any indication or anything that points specifically to the idea that these three objects were part of the PRC's spy balloon program or that they were definitely involved in external intelligence collection efforts," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, using the Chinese state's official acronym.

Kirby said the three objects -- two shot down over the United States and one over Canada -- "could be balloons that were simply tied to commercial or research entities and therefore benign."
posted by BungaDunga at 8:51 AM on February 14, 2023 [5 favorites]


China did not provide any details of the alleged incursions of US balloons into its airspace – when and where they occurred, or whether it responded in any way at the time.

The accusation is also complicated by how China defines its airspace, especially given its contested territorial claims in the South China Sea, experts say.

A country’s sovereign airspace is the portion of the atmosphere that sits above its territory, including its territorial waters that extend 12 nautical miles from its land. Above the ocean beyond the 12 nautical mile limit is considered international airspace, where commercial and military aircraft – including balloons – are allowed to engage in overflight without seeking permission, said Donald Rothwell, a professor of international law at Australian National University.

But Koh, the military expert in Singapore, said Beijing doesn’t necessarily draw distinction between national airspace and international airspace in practice.

“In the past and till recently, the Chinese military had challenged foreign military aerial activities in the international airspace in such manner as though it’s national airspace,” he said, citing the 2001 collision between a US Navy spy plane with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea as an example.
posted by BungaDunga at 9:01 AM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]




Look, maybe this is just Season 2 & 3 of Fringe finally crossing-over into our timeline. IYKYK.
posted by Fizz at 9:24 AM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]


Why are the republicans in congress so upset about Biden and the balloons? Is it because these gasbags feel like they’re being replaced by real bags of gas in supplying info to the other side?

Reminds me of a joke I heard in the...1990s, probably?

"What's the difference between Rush Limbaugh and the Hindenburg?"

"One is a flaming Nazi gasbag and the other is merely a dirigible."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:25 AM on February 14, 2023 [21 favorites]


If you detonated a modern nuke of say 200kt at 20000 feet it would fry all the local electronics but otherwise would start some fires right under it and break some windows.

Which actually is what certain folks who have read too much Tom Clancy are alleging -- that now that our air defenses have proved useless, we're about to be swarmed by thousands of Chinese balloons that carry not high explosive devices, but EMP devices designed to fry all electronics from coast to coast. Presumably, Chinese armed forces would quickly swoop in and subdue our newly-helpless populace, with a few bands of Amish freedom fighters being the only ones prepared to counterattack.
posted by delfin at 10:04 AM on February 14, 2023 [4 favorites]




Why are the republicans in congress so upset about Biden and the balloons? Is it because these gasbags feel like they’re being replaced by real bags of gas in supplying info to the other side?

You jest but: because these balloons weren't just adrift and accidentally wandering into US territory. They were detected, and observed as they drifted over a series of nuclear missile sites, and loitered to collect information, while China lied about it.

Of course, reality is more nuanced than this:
- I have heard we can reduce heat and EM emissions from these sites, and given the US saw it coming, presumably did so
- The size of the equipment and the height from which it would fall would leave a rather large debris bloom; we should probably be glad that nobody died from this or the Republicans would probably be introducing memorial legislation demanding blood.
- Recovering the debris from the Atlantic is a much simpler operation than the Arctic.

Whats most concerning about this is the apparent non-coordination. These are not stealthy operations, and reportedly the Chinese diplomat was unaware it was going on, and came back with the 'weather balloon' excuse.

The indignation at the suggestion that maybe the Americans spy on China too?

It's pretty clearly whataboutism from PRC. Neither the US nor China are party to the Open Skies Act, and China has been pretty aggressive in shooing away spy planes. Older MeFites will recall that in 2001, a US spy plane was taken down near Hainan. If you take China's word for it, the US ran a spy plane where it should not have been, and then attacked the jets escorting it back to neutral airspace.

AFAICT, the argument is "These were peaceful weather balloons. And even if they weren't, the West did it first and way worse, and stopping us is imperialism."
posted by pwnguin at 10:10 AM on February 14, 2023 [4 favorites]


Presumably, Chinese armed forces would quickly swoop in and subdue our newly-helpless populace, with a few bands of Amish freedom fighters being the only ones prepared to counterattack.

All roads lead back to Battlestar Galactica.
posted by jquinby at 10:11 AM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]


Presumably, Chinese armed forces would quickly swoop in and subdue our newly-helpless populace, with a few bands of Amish freedom fighters being the only ones prepared to counterattack.

Red Dawn: Raising the Freedom Barn
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 10:18 AM on February 14, 2023 [4 favorites]


This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang, but with a eeeeEEEEEEEEeeeeepthbbbt.
posted by xedrik at 10:27 AM on February 14, 2023 [16 favorites]


WW IV might be fought with sticks and stones, but at least WW III had some cool Zeppelins, like that one from the Bond film with David Bowie playing Christopher Walken.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:34 AM on February 14, 2023


"Young Abe Vigoda plays Frankenstein"
posted by riverlife at 11:06 AM on February 14, 2023 [1 favorite]


We really should do a FPP on Ohio. Even if its only tweets and stuff.
posted by infini at 11:08 AM on February 14, 2023 [6 favorites]


National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters

eponysterical
posted by chavenet at 11:16 AM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]


The Cold War teen in me is asking whether a small-scale nuke could be carried by a balloon?

African or European?
posted by Mayor West at 11:20 AM on February 14, 2023 [26 favorites]


Maybe all of this balloon stuff is Rand Paul's dad announcing another run for President.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:26 AM on February 14, 2023


What about balloons as delivery methods for spy drones?

Okay, maybe I'm just having drone panic at the moment.
posted by charred husk at 11:52 AM on February 14, 2023


> The Cold War teen in me is asking whether a small-scale nuke could be carried by a balloon?

> African or European?

I don't know.
posted by flamewise at 12:09 PM on February 14, 2023 [3 favorites]


We really should do a FPP on Ohio. Even if its only tweets and stuff.

There is one.
posted by eviemath at 12:26 PM on February 14, 2023 [2 favorites]


Good god, the paranoia spreads unabated. Though I'm pretty certain they're testing the viability of assassination-drone/sabotage-drone motherships. ;P
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 1:53 PM on February 14, 2023


I figure that we're about two weeks away from Tucker Carlson breathlessly accusing the Chinese Communist Party of sending balloons that seed cloud banks with fentanyl particles, so as to slay America's police forces en masse with each rainfall.
posted by delfin at 7:49 AM on February 15, 2023 [1 favorite]


Late to the party on this but one of the balloons may have been an amateur radio project.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:31 PM on February 16, 2023 [3 favorites]


Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF

...the pico balloons weigh less than 6 lb. and therefore are exempt from most FAA airspace restrictions...

The community is also nervous that their balloons could be shot down next. Medlin says one of his balloons—call sign W5KUB-112—is projected by HYSPLIT to enter U.S. airspace on Feb. 17. It already circumnavigated the globe several times, but its trajectory last carried the object over China before it will enter either Mexican or U.S. airspace.

“I hope,” Medlin said, “that in the next few days when that happens we’re not real trigger-happy and start shooting down everything.”

posted by mediareport at 3:21 AM on February 17, 2023 [3 favorites]


The pico ballooning community sounds like one of those absolutely delightful things that was always going to be doomed once the rest of the world noticed it.
posted by Not A Thing at 8:43 AM on February 17, 2023 [3 favorites]


Somebody somewhere linked to pico balloons on Monday and I went to the site, read the description, and thought that the shape sounds a lot like it and wouldn't it be weird if that's what it was.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 3:04 PM on February 17, 2023




Alibaba should've sales and promotions for pico balloons for people on the U.S. west coat. lol
posted by jeffburdges at 12:24 AM on March 3, 2023


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