As the Great Game Goes 'Round: Middle East Rapprochement & Realignment
April 20, 2023 1:23 AM   Subscribe

Qatar and UAE in process of restoring diplomatic ties [ungated] - "The restoration of ties comes amid a broader regional push for reconciliation with Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing last month to re-establish relations after years of hostility, which threatened instability in the Gulf and stoked the war in Yemen."
Several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have moved to end a decade-long isolation of Syria, which had been boycotted over its crackdown on protests in 2011 - violence that led to a protracted civil war.[1]

In Yemen, the Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia held a round of peace talks this week, exchanging hundreds of detainees, a significant peace-building move in a conflict widely seen as one of several proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Further peace talks are expected soon.
A New Order in the Middle East? [ungated] - "The convergence of the broader strategic interests of China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia suggests that Beijing's breakthrough with Iran and Saudi Arabia is likely to serve as the foundation of a new geopolitical reality in the Middle East."
The desire for security led Saudi Arabia to seek ties with Israel over the past decade, and the same desire is now motivating its cultivation of China. Saudi Arabia’s strategy is intended to guarantee its security. By assembling a broad network of partners, including China, Israel, and the United States and by improving relations with adversaries such as Iran, Syria, and Turkey, the Saudi regime hopes to shore up its long-term stability... In effect, Riyadh is showing that if U.S. policy does not serve Saudi interests, then the Saudis will not be beholden to the alliance.

Washington has also been slow to realize that Saudi Arabia sees itself not as a security vassal of the United States but as a regional power capable of playing an independent role in world politics. Riyadh believes that the old paradigm of “U.S. security in exchange for low oil prices”—as one Saudi official put it—is dead. Saudi Arabia’s vision of strategic autonomy is not simply a reaction to diminishing U.S. engagement in the Middle East but a statement of the kingdom’s ambitions. Riyadh wants close and independent ties with the United States, as well as with Russia and China. It also sees itself as playing a crucial role in the region, balancing Egypt, Iran, Israel, and Turkey to protect its own security and wield regional influence. To hold that coveted position, Saudi Arabia must nurture relations with all its neighbors. In 2022, Riyadh restored ties with Turkey; now it is doing the same with Iran. Next it will be Israel’s turn. Relations with Iran will give the Saudis much-needed political cover with their allies, meaning that a deal with Israel can be presented as a bilateral agreement, rather than a military axis against another Muslim country. The Beijing deal both affirms Riyadh’s view of its status in the Middle East and demonstrates its strategic autonomy.
How China & Russia Are Leading A Major Realignment In The Middle East l Biden's US Being Sidelined? - "This [Syrian-]Emirati friendship cannot be seen in isolation. Saudi Arabia and Iran, too, have struck a surprise peace deal brokered at the behest of China last month. This had been the single biggest fault line in the Middle East since the collapse of the Shah regime and Iran became an Islamic Republic. It's not just a Shia-Sunni fault line. It's about regional control both in economic and military terms. There is now a realization in Saudi Arabia, which had thrown its weight behind the United States for the last 40 years since the fall of the Shah in Persia. There is now a growing realization under the new regime under MBS, Mohammed bin Salman, the ruler of Saudi Arabia, that it's time to seek new friends."

Rapprochement and Realignment in the Middle East - "It is for this reason that Manara's third issue of 2022, 'Rapprochement and Realignment in the Middle East,' considers how a diplomatic deluge is reshaping regional politics in real time. Old rivalries between Sunni and Shia and Muslim and Jew, intra-Gulf tensions, and ideological struggles appear to have been set aside in pursuit of shared gains."
Israel, once ostracized from its neighbours, is coming to grips with its new regional position. Eran Eztion analyses how Israelis are responding to the signing and expansion of the Abraham Accords, while Dr. Burcu Ozcelik assesses the impact of normalisation between the Jewish state and Turkey. For its part, Turkey, too, has sought to bury the hatchet with its Arab rivals. Sine Ozkarasahin evaluates Ankara’s new foreign policy, and how the turnaround in Turkish relations with Egypt and Saudi Arabia is reorienting regional alignments.

There is much happening within the Gulf as well. The Arab Gulf states’ isolation of Qatar from 2017-2021 has subsided, and, as Giorgio Cafiero observes, their relationship has begun to thaw. Iraq, too, has mediated multiple rounds of dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran, although, Kamaran Palani writes, such meetings have been stronger on symbolism than substance, and many challenges remain. Saudi Arabia has much at stake in these negotiations, Ambassador Ali Asseri explains, as Iran is the fulcrum on which many regional challenges depend and has thus far been unwilling to offer real compromise. This suggests that Tehran’s negotiations with the West to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) face headwinds, and, as Ali Ahmadi discusses, even if such talks succeed in lowering tensions between Iran, the United States, and the Arab Gulf states, regional peace is a distant prospect. In fact, successful Gulf-Iranian de-escalation will not automatically resolve the conflicts in Yemen or Syria either, the latter of which, Alexander Langlois notes, is headed toward a prisoner’s dilemma with troubling consequences beyond the Middle East. Whether Europe and the West can meaningfully contribute to regional conflict resolution is unclear, however, Mahmoud Javadi contends that a renewed focus on environmental and human security can help the European Union identify opportunities for mutual security and economic gains.

These are only some of the ongoings that stand to reorder the Middle East after years of turmoil. Indeed, external developments including China’s growing influence and Russia’s war in Ukraine are also affecting regional politics. The United States, too, appears intent on reducing its military footprint and shifting its focus to Europe and Asia after years of war, creating additional impetus for regional jostling. It remains to be seen whether the region’s states will capitalize on this opportunity to forge a new, sustainable balance of power or if old enmities will prevail, but it is our hope that this issue will promote new thinking and discussion on the Middle East’s future.
Iran-Saudi rapprochement: Despite realignment taking shape in Gulf region, deal implementation remains challenging - "A new realignment is taking place in the Gulf Region while a strategic reconvergence is being witnessed between Russia, China and Iran and now Saudi Arabia which is seeking a leading role for itself at both the regional and international levels." (Iran-Saudi Arabia ties: How China's energy needs led to reconciliation between Tehran and Riyadh courtesy Beijing)

also btw...
U.S. components found in Russian, Iranian military tech - "The more recently dated parts demonstrate how Iran and Russia may have circumvented U.S. restrictions, according to the analyses done by CAR and RUSI."
Key components from more than a dozen Western countries have been found in the military equipment used by Russian forces in Ukraine, according to research from the British academic journal Royal United Services Institute. A separate report from independent research group Conflict Armament Research analyzed the components of four Iranian-made drones, also known as unmanned aerial vehicles, used by Russia in Ukraine and found the vast majority of the technological devices originated from U.S. companies.

The two reports help demonstrate how multibillion-dollar, decadeslong military-modernization programs in Iran and Russia have depended on semiconductors made by U.S. companies. The research calls into question the two countries’ domestic capabilities when it comes to microelectronics manufacturing and demonstrates the illicit procurement and misuse of semiconductors by overseas entities.
  • Special report: How U.S.-made chips are flowing into Russia - "'There are many formless shell companies and small trading companies in Hong Kong that serve as receptacles for secondary sales' to Russia and elsewhere, said a manager at Avnet, a leading U.S. semiconductor distributor. Cracking down on such traders is almost impossible. 'If you spot one illegal trade, they can just change their name or use their other trading companies' names,' the manager said."
  • Ukraine says it is finding more Chinese components in Russian weapons - "Intelligence gathered by Ukrainian experts from the battlefield and shared with Reuters stated that Chinese-made components were found in a navigation system in Orlan aerial drones that had previously used a Swiss system. The experts also reported finding Chinese parts in the fire control system in Russian tanks that had earlier used French-made parts."
India, Russia talk free trade deal in step-up of relations - "The FTA talks mark a step-up in economic relations between the two countries despite calls from Western countries for India to gradually distance itself from its dominant weapons supplier, Russia, over its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. India's imports from Russia more than quadrupled to $46.33 billion over the last fiscal year, mainly through oil."
posted by kliuless (10 comments total) 10 users marked this as a favorite
 
Sides are being drawn-up.

Yeah, I know that’s terribly fatalistic, but it’s hard not to see these developments as such, and, when viewed against the backdrop of an entire political party working hard at bringing-down the US government, it’s just fucking depressing.
posted by Thorzdad at 8:24 AM on April 20, 2023 [1 favorite]


it’s just fucking depressing

my mind tends to follow that thread, but quite a few of the items posted here are focused on realignments and the reduction of long-standing tensions. most signs do point to the US losing a hegemonic weight it has enjoyed for a period of time, and I'm not suggesting we will see something better emerge in terms of what happens next, but I'm also not sure it will be entirely worse. Worse, maybe, for some N. Americans?

I do not see how "same as it ever was" would be less depressing, is my point
posted by elkevelvet at 10:04 AM on April 20, 2023 [5 favorites]


Thanks for these links. Looking forward to digging through your post, as always.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 11:24 AM on April 20, 2023


We should be so lucky as for the Saudi’s to breakup with US and for this realignment to actually happen. This relationship has been dysfunctional for a long time and the Saudi kings have never seen themselves as our vassal, they see it quite the opposite. We work for them.
posted by interogative mood at 9:19 PM on April 20, 2023 [5 favorites]


israel, too?

when viewed against the backdrop of an entire political party working hard at bringing-down the US government

petrostates vs. solar states?[1,2] seveneves is looking more prescient (but at least it has a 'happy ending'?)
posted by kliuless at 5:48 AM on April 21, 2023 [1 favorite]


[Foreign Minister Eli] Cohen said that this year at least one more country would join the Abraham Accords, without elaborating.

oh and apparently...
Israel cements ties to Turkmenistan on Iran's border - "Cohen, who also met Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov, called his visit 'historic' and said Israel's ties with Central Asia's 'energy superpower' were of strategic importance... The gas-rich desert nation of six million has an official neutrality policy, avoiding membership in any political or military blocs. Its main economic partner is China, which buys the bulk of Turkmen gas exports."
posted by kliuless at 5:56 AM on April 21, 2023


The US-Saudi Relationship Is In Danger of Falling Apart - "For decades, the United States and Saudi Arabia maintained an important strategic alliance, which gave the US access to Saudi oil in exchange for guaranteeing the kingdom’s security. But growing tensions between the two nations now threaten to rupture this relationship." (yt)
posted by kliuless at 8:55 PM on April 21, 2023


The thing is that with the rise of US LNG exports to Europe and increased in U.S. petroleum production we are now not just Saudi Arabia’s biggest customer we are also a competitor.
posted by interogative mood at 10:49 PM on April 21, 2023


meanwhile...
Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. Scoop Up Russian Oil Products at Steep Discounts - "As Russia scours the globe for buyers of its energy products, it is finding eager trade partners in an unlikely place: The oil-rich petrostates of the Persian Gulf... Despite U.S. objections, the Gulf countries are using the discounted Russian products internally, including for consumption and refining purposes, and exporting their own barrels at market rates, boosting their profits. The Gulf countries, especially the U.A.E., have also become key storage and trading hubs for Russian energy products that can't be as easily shipped around the globe because of the war."
posted by kliuless at 11:55 PM on April 21, 2023


I think that's the best case scenario. Removing Russian energy entirely would be a big shock to the world economy. Europe has had enough problems weening off Russian energy, I don't know how well the rest of the world would accept higher prices for gas and heat for Ukraine's sake.

This situation means Russia has to sell at a big discount and other countries collect the profits.
posted by riruro at 4:42 AM on April 22, 2023


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