If you want to learn about AI killing people, “Get a Tesla”
May 7, 2023 3:58 AM Subscribe
Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak owns a Tesla. “And boy, if you want a study of AI gone wrong and taking a lot of claims and trying to kill you every chance it can, get a Tesla,” Wozniak told CNN earlier this week.
Yeah, those check marks are the blue bird's red maga hats now.
Two years after the iPhone came out a lawyer friend of mine who worked with a number of high-profile tech companies went to their firm's IT shop and said, give me an iPhone. Their IT people said, no, this is a Blackberry shop. And she said, if I show up to a client meeting with a tech company and put a Blackberry on the table, my clients will immediately assume that I'm completely disconnected, have no idea what I’m talking about and shouldn't be taken seriously, you can get me a new iPhone or you're fired.
Anyway, if you work in information security, privacy or industrial safety and you drive a Tesla, dwell on this. Just sit with it for a while and ruminate, you know. Ponder it.
posted by mhoye at 5:12 AM on May 7, 2023 [35 favorites]
Two years after the iPhone came out a lawyer friend of mine who worked with a number of high-profile tech companies went to their firm's IT shop and said, give me an iPhone. Their IT people said, no, this is a Blackberry shop. And she said, if I show up to a client meeting with a tech company and put a Blackberry on the table, my clients will immediately assume that I'm completely disconnected, have no idea what I’m talking about and shouldn't be taken seriously, you can get me a new iPhone or you're fired.
Anyway, if you work in information security, privacy or industrial safety and you drive a Tesla, dwell on this. Just sit with it for a while and ruminate, you know. Ponder it.
posted by mhoye at 5:12 AM on May 7, 2023 [35 favorites]
I now flag Teslas on the road and either move away from them or drive extra defensively when near them. This shit was terrifying from day one, and now there's a zillion more of them on the road. I still can't believe they got this 'autopilot' approved with the limp suggestion that people will sit there and pay full attention like a driver but not be driving.
posted by SaltySalticid at 5:16 AM on May 7, 2023 [17 favorites]
posted by SaltySalticid at 5:16 AM on May 7, 2023 [17 favorites]
I’d point and laugh except, well, the people who have actually been injured and died due to Tesla’s autopilot.
posted by eviemath at 5:33 AM on May 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by eviemath at 5:33 AM on May 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
This is my new favorite allegory and it runs both directions. Never thought of Woz as gifted in the epigram department.
posted by aspersioncast at 6:19 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by aspersioncast at 6:19 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
A secondary beef I have with Teslas—entirely theoretical at this point (I've pretty much given up driving, no longer own a car and have no plans to replace it)—is the touchscreen controls. Touchscreens provide no haptic feedback and they're modal insofar as buttons and sliders can change position depending on which screen you're displaying. So to use them you have to take your eyes off the road and re-focus at close range. Which is inherently dangerous in traffic.
If the touchscreen was only for stuff like the navigation system and entertainment my objection would be a lot weaker but as I understand it in the Model 3 and newer Teslas the touchscreen is even used to adjust the climate control! In what crazy user interface world does that make sense? Oh, I know: it reduces the bill of materials for a new car by replacing a bunch of custom injection-molded buttons with a single cheap touchscreen. Thereby improving the profit margin by making driving more dangerous.
posted by cstross at 6:20 AM on May 7, 2023 [94 favorites]
If the touchscreen was only for stuff like the navigation system and entertainment my objection would be a lot weaker but as I understand it in the Model 3 and newer Teslas the touchscreen is even used to adjust the climate control! In what crazy user interface world does that make sense? Oh, I know: it reduces the bill of materials for a new car by replacing a bunch of custom injection-molded buttons with a single cheap touchscreen. Thereby improving the profit margin by making driving more dangerous.
posted by cstross at 6:20 AM on May 7, 2023 [94 favorites]
At the risk of quoting myself, from an earlier discussion about AI-driven vehicles:
The scary question might not be, "when do we get a turing-complete self-aware AI that's orders of magnitude smarter than humans?" It might be, "when does it become trivial to put a dumb AI in the driver's seat of a backhoe?"posted by gauche at 6:26 AM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
Ironically I posted this FPP on Tesla’s software practices as a link to a Twitter thread.
posted by Artw at 6:36 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:36 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
The scary question might not be, "when do we get a turing-complete self-aware AI that's orders of magnitude smarter than humans?" It might be, "when does it become trivial to put a dumb AI in the driver's seat of a backhoe?"
I think we are a long way from replacing a skilled backhoe/excavator operator with AI. There's a lot going on with even simple excavation, a lot of it around being smart about where you place the dirt so as to not box yourself in. They already have semi-autonomous machinery (like for grading out a large area) and some of those jobs will be lost as the tech improves, but the tech isn't nearly good enough yet to replace skilled operators for tricky work.
For Tesla, it seems like such a total regulatory failure that they were not just allowed to implement this semi-autonomous driving, but have been allowed to continue to do so long after the problems became apparent. The regulators should have said "nope, go back to testing this in controlled conditions until it is ready for the average driver."
posted by Dip Flash at 6:50 AM on May 7, 2023 [23 favorites]
I think we are a long way from replacing a skilled backhoe/excavator operator with AI. There's a lot going on with even simple excavation, a lot of it around being smart about where you place the dirt so as to not box yourself in. They already have semi-autonomous machinery (like for grading out a large area) and some of those jobs will be lost as the tech improves, but the tech isn't nearly good enough yet to replace skilled operators for tricky work.
For Tesla, it seems like such a total regulatory failure that they were not just allowed to implement this semi-autonomous driving, but have been allowed to continue to do so long after the problems became apparent. The regulators should have said "nope, go back to testing this in controlled conditions until it is ready for the average driver."
posted by Dip Flash at 6:50 AM on May 7, 2023 [23 favorites]
Just straight up ignoring stuff like that appears to be the primary, possibly the only, innovation that Elon brings to each of his businesses. It has worked alarmingly well.
posted by Artw at 6:56 AM on May 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Artw at 6:56 AM on May 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
touchscreen is even used to adjust the climate control
this is basically all new cars. my subaru has only touch screen climate controls and i hate it so much
posted by dis_integration at 7:01 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
this is basically all new cars. my subaru has only touch screen climate controls and i hate it so much
posted by dis_integration at 7:01 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
Stats are hard, and looks like there are 4-500 accidents due to autopilot, comparing to the thirty eight thousand caused by human drivers per year is tricky.
500 < 38,000
One of the first comments I made and heard about robot cars is that the TV news effect would be the hardest to get past. Car accidents are not news, happens all-the-fucking-time but a single accident by the robot car would be huge headlines.
Anyway don't worry about cars Spot, Boston Dynamics robot puppy has been hooked up to chatgpt! I say puppy as it's quite young, now when a big dog can respond to voice, doesn't even need laser eyes...
posted by sammyo at 7:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
500 < 38,000
One of the first comments I made and heard about robot cars is that the TV news effect would be the hardest to get past. Car accidents are not news, happens all-the-fucking-time but a single accident by the robot car would be huge headlines.
Anyway don't worry about cars Spot, Boston Dynamics robot puppy has been hooked up to chatgpt! I say puppy as it's quite young, now when a big dog can respond to voice, doesn't even need laser eyes...
posted by sammyo at 7:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
A secondary beef I have with Teslas . . . is the touchscreen controls.
A thousand times this. But it's not just Teslas. I'm driving recent model Subaru Outback where the climate controls are all on a big touchscreen. Just the worst. an absolute dealbreaker if I were in the market.
(oh hi, dis_integration!)
posted by whuppy at 7:08 AM on May 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
A thousand times this. But it's not just Teslas. I'm driving recent model Subaru Outback where the climate controls are all on a big touchscreen. Just the worst. an absolute dealbreaker if I were in the market.
(oh hi, dis_integration!)
posted by whuppy at 7:08 AM on May 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
dis_integration is right, and I sincerely wish and hope for a design-backlash to happen regarding touch screens in vehicles to happen soon. I think that the reason touch screens have become so ubiquitous is that vehicle companies have to push out "new, improved, more modern!" product every single year. The bones, muscle and guts of the vehicles stay sort of the same, with small invisible improvements here and there from year to year. So to get new vehicles sold, they have to deck out the interior and user experience—from key fobs to touch screens, to auto-parking, cameras, etc—year after year after year.
I hate it. I recently had to start driving regularly for work after years of only driving for groceries, chores, visit family, etc. (it was basically my wife's car). I will very likely have to get a new-to-me car soon, and at age 52, I long for the days of having the keys dangle from the steering column (I have so many pockets in winter time that the 'where's my keys?' issue annoys the hell out of me). I want analog knobs and switches and dials for everything, but I doubt I will be able to get anything close to that. Sure, I like to lock and unlock the car with a fob, and pop the trunk. But after that? Nope.
posted by SoberHighland at 7:11 AM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
I hate it. I recently had to start driving regularly for work after years of only driving for groceries, chores, visit family, etc. (it was basically my wife's car). I will very likely have to get a new-to-me car soon, and at age 52, I long for the days of having the keys dangle from the steering column (I have so many pockets in winter time that the 'where's my keys?' issue annoys the hell out of me). I want analog knobs and switches and dials for everything, but I doubt I will be able to get anything close to that. Sure, I like to lock and unlock the car with a fob, and pop the trunk. But after that? Nope.
posted by SoberHighland at 7:11 AM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls? Like, they should be, right?
posted by snofoam at 7:13 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by snofoam at 7:13 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Stats are hard and... 500 < 38,000
Well, yes. Stats are hard. And denominators matter.
posted by ambrosen at 7:13 AM on May 7, 2023 [126 favorites]
Well, yes. Stats are hard. And denominators matter.
posted by ambrosen at 7:13 AM on May 7, 2023 [126 favorites]
The automakers who generally lead car design are going back to buttons and knobs, realizing that the dynamic nature of a touch screen is not good for automotive controls like a/c and stuff.
My Hyundai has the perfect mix of screen and manual controls. Everything dealing with the car is a physical button or knob, the radio has physical buttons/knobs, but all the CarPlay and other features are on the touchscreen. It's a good divide between "this is part of the car" and "this is a fancy add-on thing".
posted by hippybear at 7:30 AM on May 7, 2023 [27 favorites]
My Hyundai has the perfect mix of screen and manual controls. Everything dealing with the car is a physical button or knob, the radio has physical buttons/knobs, but all the CarPlay and other features are on the touchscreen. It's a good divide between "this is part of the car" and "this is a fancy add-on thing".
posted by hippybear at 7:30 AM on May 7, 2023 [27 favorites]
I sincerely wish and hope for a design-backlash to happen regarding touch screens in vehicles to happen soon
It's started: Volkswagen Is Bringing Back Physical Buttons and The Glorious Return of a Humble Car Feature.
posted by jedicus at 7:30 AM on May 7, 2023 [31 favorites]
It's started: Volkswagen Is Bringing Back Physical Buttons and The Glorious Return of a Humble Car Feature.
posted by jedicus at 7:30 AM on May 7, 2023 [31 favorites]
My hot take is that the most dangerous thing about Teslas is their role in encouraging people to imagine that cars have any place in a sustainable future. The 'self-driving' feature is one aspect of that, but the electricity is another. There is no sustainable future with individual car ownership as a norm. Crash injuries and deaths, mining and resource depletion, sprawl, and poisoning our water and soil (which electric cars still do). Dense cities, electric buses, high speed trains, bikes, trikes, trams - these are the only way forward.
posted by latkes at 7:39 AM on May 7, 2023 [61 favorites]
posted by latkes at 7:39 AM on May 7, 2023 [61 favorites]
→
As a person with an accent, I say “unlikely”
(voice-controlled car pops trunk, opens rear passenger window a third and sets cabin temperature to stifling, all at highway speed)
posted by scruss at 7:40 AM on May 7, 2023 [33 favorites]
Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls?
As a person with an accent, I say “unlikely”
(voice-controlled car pops trunk, opens rear passenger window a third and sets cabin temperature to stifling, all at highway speed)
posted by scruss at 7:40 AM on May 7, 2023 [33 favorites]
not that I'll ever own a new car, but yeah, hate those screens. dangerous, inherently. and to be more luddite, even, can i go a fucking minute every day without a screen in my periphery?
posted by j_curiouser at 7:41 AM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by j_curiouser at 7:41 AM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
Oh, I know: it reduces the bill of materials for a new car by replacing a bunch of custom injection-molded buttons with a single cheap touchscreen.
This is basically Elon's same logic for getting rid of lidar in favor of "just use cameras, bro."
Folks here on Mefi may recall that I've been one of the (relatively) positive people about autonomous driving, not in terms of "it'll be perfect in just a couple years!" or "never mind the trolley problem!" but in terms of "there will be a point where statistically they are safer than people behind the wheel, and at that point the actuaries will show their true power" and "a well designed vehicle from a hardware and software standpoint will avoid trolley-problem scenarios because people usually let themselves get into the "hit this kid or hit oncoming traffic" by inattention.
But Tesla.... boy, Tesla is pretending like humans are the ne plus ultra of vehicle pilots and play off a cheapskate decision as though "humans look through their eyes, what's the problem" when modern sensors are so much more capable of understanding the landscape that they're FAR better than humans. Tesla is foolishly aiming for that "just barely better than people" which I believe will be a losing gamble. Shoot for the "creepily almost clairvoyant" moon and they'll eventually end up among the "statistically safer than human driver" stars.
Long past time for California to step in on marketing lies like "Full Self Driving" and the removal of superior-to-human sensor capability like lidar. I'm fairly confident California will do that until it's hamstrung by the next (and maybe permanent) federal GOP trifecta.
posted by tclark at 7:41 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
This is basically Elon's same logic for getting rid of lidar in favor of "just use cameras, bro."
Folks here on Mefi may recall that I've been one of the (relatively) positive people about autonomous driving, not in terms of "it'll be perfect in just a couple years!" or "never mind the trolley problem!" but in terms of "there will be a point where statistically they are safer than people behind the wheel, and at that point the actuaries will show their true power" and "a well designed vehicle from a hardware and software standpoint will avoid trolley-problem scenarios because people usually let themselves get into the "hit this kid or hit oncoming traffic" by inattention.
But Tesla.... boy, Tesla is pretending like humans are the ne plus ultra of vehicle pilots and play off a cheapskate decision as though "humans look through their eyes, what's the problem" when modern sensors are so much more capable of understanding the landscape that they're FAR better than humans. Tesla is foolishly aiming for that "just barely better than people" which I believe will be a losing gamble. Shoot for the "creepily almost clairvoyant" moon and they'll eventually end up among the "statistically safer than human driver" stars.
Long past time for California to step in on marketing lies like "Full Self Driving" and the removal of superior-to-human sensor capability like lidar. I'm fairly confident California will do that until it's hamstrung by the next (and maybe permanent) federal GOP trifecta.
posted by tclark at 7:41 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
While on the touchscreen derail; aside from the modes and lack of feedback, have you ever tried to hit the object on the screen while your hand is bouncing around? I dare you to try to keep your eyes on the road while selecting an audio source or worse yet trying to use the nav system. You can hit all kinds of other settings instead. To gain accuracy you might have to look away for 1 or 2 seconds. A lot can happen in that time. You travel 10 meters or 30 feet at street speeds in 1 second.
posted by Zedcaster at 7:43 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by Zedcaster at 7:43 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
Stats are hard and... 500 < 38,000
Well, yes. Stats are hard. And denominators matter.
Absolutely, so are orders of magnitude.
(note, I deeply hate touchscreen controls and do think robots need to have higher standards than humans)
The danger of AI is not going to be the flashy accidents but the long term niceness, we will become dependent slowly (as in months:) can you live without your phone, microwave, plumbing? Will we able to hold a conversation without that tiny nudge of idea compilation in a few years? Will the entire infrastructure but robust enough so I can rely on MyAIassistent everywhere, every day 24/7? ... oh wait.
posted by sammyo at 7:59 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Well, yes. Stats are hard. And denominators matter.
Absolutely, so are orders of magnitude.
(note, I deeply hate touchscreen controls and do think robots need to have higher standards than humans)
The danger of AI is not going to be the flashy accidents but the long term niceness, we will become dependent slowly (as in months:) can you live without your phone, microwave, plumbing? Will we able to hold a conversation without that tiny nudge of idea compilation in a few years? Will the entire infrastructure but robust enough so I can rely on MyAIassistent everywhere, every day 24/7? ... oh wait.
posted by sammyo at 7:59 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Seconding? Thirding? Fourthing the gripe about touchscreens in cars. And the fact that automakers are starting to copy Tesla in this is is the wooorst. For example, the new Ford Mach-e is quite slick, but they do the center touchscreen with a single knobby thing. No thanks. For now, Kia seems to be on Team Knobs so I'll stick with them.
posted by snwod at 8:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by snwod at 8:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
A secondary beef I have with Teslas . . . is the touchscreen controls.
Last week they finally gave up on the idea that the terrible rain sensing algorithm worked and allowed wiper control from a steering wheel button instead of the screen. That's fixed the second worst thing about the car. The worst thing remains El*n's Twitter account, and only the Tesla board have the power to fix that.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 8:07 AM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Last week they finally gave up on the idea that the terrible rain sensing algorithm worked and allowed wiper control from a steering wheel button instead of the screen. That's fixed the second worst thing about the car. The worst thing remains El*n's Twitter account, and only the Tesla board have the power to fix that.
posted by rhamphorhynchus at 8:07 AM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
As long as we’re determined to hold on to our mobile living rooms in a world of vast inequality and limited resources, as long as we let companies run our lives for us, they’ll be thinking of things they can market to us and ways they can make us “need” their products. I adore my touchscreens but I prefer using them on my phone on the bus or a train. The human brain doesn’t really multi-task. It task-switches, and there is a measurable but unconscious time gap between tasks. (Yeah I live in a city with public transit and I got rid of my car this year, I admit)
posted by Peach at 8:24 AM on May 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Peach at 8:24 AM on May 7, 2023 [6 favorites]
And denominators matter
Here are some denominators...
Some very quick and not necessarily very accurate
googling shows around 286 million cars on the road in the US as of 2020:
https://financesonline.com/number-of-cars-in-the-us/
38000/280000000 =0.0001328
These Tesla sales figures show about 762k Tesla sold in the US from 2015 to 2020 (question: what's the oldest model that supports autopilot?)
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-inc-us-sales-figures/
500/762000 =0.0006562
So 4.9x the number of deaths per car for autopilot vs all cars.
Of course it would be better to look at deaths per miles driven instead of deaths per car - I'll leave that googling to others.
I imagine the majority of miles driven in Teslas are not on autopilot so that would make the numbers even worse.
I also don't know what years the 500 and 38000 numbers were for, so...
posted by duoshao at 8:31 AM on May 7, 2023 [34 favorites]
Here are some denominators...
Some very quick and not necessarily very accurate
googling shows around 286 million cars on the road in the US as of 2020:
https://financesonline.com/number-of-cars-in-the-us/
38000/280000000 =0.0001328
These Tesla sales figures show about 762k Tesla sold in the US from 2015 to 2020 (question: what's the oldest model that supports autopilot?)
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-inc-us-sales-figures/
500/762000 =0.0006562
So 4.9x the number of deaths per car for autopilot vs all cars.
Of course it would be better to look at deaths per miles driven instead of deaths per car - I'll leave that googling to others.
I imagine the majority of miles driven in Teslas are not on autopilot so that would make the numbers even worse.
I also don't know what years the 500 and 38000 numbers were for, so...
posted by duoshao at 8:31 AM on May 7, 2023 [34 favorites]
If autonomous driving machines existed and if they were better at driving than people, then they would be a good thing to put in charge of people's cars.
They don't, they aren't, and they're not.
posted by flabdablet at 8:39 AM on May 7, 2023 [15 favorites]
They don't, they aren't, and they're not.
posted by flabdablet at 8:39 AM on May 7, 2023 [15 favorites]
It does seem like the ideal real test for self-driving cars would be to take a small-ish town, maybe 10,000 people, and have all the inhabitants replace their cars with the kind of autonomous car that not only drives but also talks to the other cars around it. That's long been the "this is how it gets safest" tipping point they tout -- all the cars will work together for maximum safety.
So let's actually do that. Let's test and see what happens. I mean, wasn't there some town in the US that was a test market for Yugo and basically everyone there had one?
Anyway, if we can prove that works, really really works, then we can work on figuring out how to roll that out everywhere.
posted by hippybear at 8:42 AM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
So let's actually do that. Let's test and see what happens. I mean, wasn't there some town in the US that was a test market for Yugo and basically everyone there had one?
Anyway, if we can prove that works, really really works, then we can work on figuring out how to roll that out everywhere.
posted by hippybear at 8:42 AM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
I think the 38,000 is auto fatalities and the 500 is just accidents.
posted by snofoam at 8:44 AM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by snofoam at 8:44 AM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
Oh do the cars talk to pedestrians?
posted by Artw at 8:44 AM on May 7, 2023 [23 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:44 AM on May 7, 2023 [23 favorites]
A couple of things:
I concluded a couple of years back that the widespread deployment of go-anywhere fully autonomous self-driving vehicle was a pipe dream. Besides the naivete of thinking they alone would solve most of the issues with the personal vehicle (pollution, gridlock, mobility), is the idea that fully-capable and safe self-driving could be achieved without substantial re-engineering of the infrastructure too - embedded sensors and signals, central routing computers, dedicated and protected lanes, etc. So, like everyone else's attempts, Tesla's Autopilot is not ready for prime-time. No surprises there. And this realization should temper our expectations about AI in general.
[or...what flabdablet just said]
Second - Tesla's are pretty good cars. My friend has had a Model 3 for over 2 years, and I got to spend an hour behind the wheel of it. Lots of thinking and innovations have gone into it - not all of them winners, but many are. Owner satisfaction is industry-leading. If we had the funds (and relied more on our vehicles), I'd consider one. And I would never use its autopilot.
And yeah, no love for touchscreens in vehicles.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:45 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
I concluded a couple of years back that the widespread deployment of go-anywhere fully autonomous self-driving vehicle was a pipe dream. Besides the naivete of thinking they alone would solve most of the issues with the personal vehicle (pollution, gridlock, mobility), is the idea that fully-capable and safe self-driving could be achieved without substantial re-engineering of the infrastructure too - embedded sensors and signals, central routing computers, dedicated and protected lanes, etc. So, like everyone else's attempts, Tesla's Autopilot is not ready for prime-time. No surprises there. And this realization should temper our expectations about AI in general.
[or...what flabdablet just said]
Second - Tesla's are pretty good cars. My friend has had a Model 3 for over 2 years, and I got to spend an hour behind the wheel of it. Lots of thinking and innovations have gone into it - not all of them winners, but many are. Owner satisfaction is industry-leading. If we had the funds (and relied more on our vehicles), I'd consider one. And I would never use its autopilot.
And yeah, no love for touchscreens in vehicles.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:45 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
I look forward to never sitting in the driver's seat again, but in the meantime my Nissan Level 1 autopilot features (lane-keeping and distance-keeping) have changed the game for me. It reduces my cognitive load, reduces my frustration, and makes me a safer driver.
I am angry at Tesla for poisoning the well on this stuff, which works pretty well if you pay attention and learn its limitations, which are predictable. The most trouble I get into comes from aggro drivers cutting me off because I'm leaving so much space in front.
I would welcome some more AI-ish features like pedestrian detection, or else handing out more tickets to people with tinted windows that roll through stop signs while reading Twitter when I'm on my bike.
posted by credulous at 8:49 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
I am angry at Tesla for poisoning the well on this stuff, which works pretty well if you pay attention and learn its limitations, which are predictable. The most trouble I get into comes from aggro drivers cutting me off because I'm leaving so much space in front.
I would welcome some more AI-ish features like pedestrian detection, or else handing out more tickets to people with tinted windows that roll through stop signs while reading Twitter when I'm on my bike.
posted by credulous at 8:49 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
Oh do the cars talk to pedestrians?
as long as everybody* has their phone on their person at all times. And, of course, they must have their tracking turned ON. That would have to mandated by law, or certainly, not having it on would disqualify you from any insurance claims.
* small children and people who can't afford a phone would, of course, require implants.
posted by philip-random at 8:54 AM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
as long as everybody* has their phone on their person at all times. And, of course, they must have their tracking turned ON. That would have to mandated by law, or certainly, not having it on would disqualify you from any insurance claims.
* small children and people who can't afford a phone would, of course, require implants.
posted by philip-random at 8:54 AM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls?
like leeches on the way to antibiotics? sure.
posted by j_curiouser at 9:07 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
like leeches on the way to antibiotics? sure.
posted by j_curiouser at 9:07 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
And, of course, they must have their tracking turned ON. That would have to mandated
Obviously it's unsafe to walk out your own front door without your tracker on. That's just irresponsible. Fucking jaywalkers. Every single one of them deserves to be mown down on sight.
posted by flabdablet at 9:09 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
Obviously it's unsafe to walk out your own front door without your tracker on. That's just irresponsible. Fucking jaywalkers. Every single one of them deserves to be mown down on sight.
posted by flabdablet at 9:09 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
I've hated the thought of self-driving cars for a good while now, even since before Elon became the most reckless and odious face of it. They simply do not belong in a multimodal (e.g. any city street) motion scenario. Ever.
But, there is an optimal use case for autonomous driving that would actually be an improvement over current human behavior: restricted access highways. I do like to picture a scenario where the onramps screen your vehicle for autonomous capabilities, plugs you into the network of travelers, and off you go, having programmed in your exit. On the exit ramp the autonomous mode is shut off and can't be activated by the vehicle on roads that are not explicitly and exclusively for motor vehicles.
posted by Cold Lurkey at 9:09 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
But, there is an optimal use case for autonomous driving that would actually be an improvement over current human behavior: restricted access highways. I do like to picture a scenario where the onramps screen your vehicle for autonomous capabilities, plugs you into the network of travelers, and off you go, having programmed in your exit. On the exit ramp the autonomous mode is shut off and can't be activated by the vehicle on roads that are not explicitly and exclusively for motor vehicles.
posted by Cold Lurkey at 9:09 AM on May 7, 2023 [14 favorites]
like leeches on the way to antibiotics?
More like leeches on the way to methamphetamine.
posted by flabdablet at 9:18 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
More like leeches on the way to methamphetamine.
posted by flabdablet at 9:18 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
The whole reason Woz was getting to spout off about Tesla’s AI failures is because Geoffrey Hinton recently quit Google over his concerns around AI.
Who CNN should have talked to is Meredith Whittaker. Whittaker got pushed out the airlock at google when the company started providing AI technology for military drones with Project Maven. Hinton didn’t have an issue with making drone strikes more accurate, or googles anti-union reaction/retaliation to their employee’s legitimate ethical concerns at the “Don’t Be Evil” corporation. Or any of the other current real world issues with AI.
Like on the issue of AI’s disproportionate impact and harms on marginalized people? On that issue Hinton recently stated that these criticisms were not as “existentially serious” as his own. Whittaker’s response is worth quoting in full:
Who CNN should have talked to is Meredith Whittaker. Whittaker got pushed out the airlock at google when the company started providing AI technology for military drones with Project Maven. Hinton didn’t have an issue with making drone strikes more accurate, or googles anti-union reaction/retaliation to their employee’s legitimate ethical concerns at the “Don’t Be Evil” corporation. Or any of the other current real world issues with AI.
Like on the issue of AI’s disproportionate impact and harms on marginalized people? On that issue Hinton recently stated that these criticisms were not as “existentially serious” as his own. Whittaker’s response is worth quoting in full:
MW: I think it’s stunning that someone would say that the harms [from AI] that are happening now—which are felt most acutely by people who have been historically minoritized: Black people, women, disabled people, precarious workers, et cetera—that those harms aren’t existential.posted by zenon at 9:26 AM on May 7, 2023 [30 favorites]
What I hear in that is, “Those aren’t existential to me. I have millions of dollars, I am invested in many, many AI startups, and none of this affects my existence. But what could affect my existence is if a sci-fi fantasy came to life and AI were actually super intelligent, and suddenly men like me would not be the most powerful entities in the world, and that would affect my business.”
Oh do the cars talk to pedestrians?
"Please, step out of the roadway. You have 20 seconds to comply."
posted by What is E. T. short for? at 9:27 AM on May 7, 2023 [12 favorites]
"Please, step out of the roadway. You have 20 seconds to comply."
posted by What is E. T. short for? at 9:27 AM on May 7, 2023 [12 favorites]
Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls?
That will keep my song, "Driving on the Sidewalk," from getting airplay.
(no, the song does not exist)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:34 AM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
That will keep my song, "Driving on the Sidewalk," from getting airplay.
(no, the song does not exist)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:34 AM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
I think we are a long way from replacing a skilled backhoe/excavator operator with AI.
Maybe not completely, but you can buy a robotic conversion kit that will make your existing excavator more or less autonomous, today, for a reasonable price.
posted by phooky at 9:40 AM on May 7, 2023
Maybe not completely, but you can buy a robotic conversion kit that will make your existing excavator more or less autonomous, today, for a reasonable price.
posted by phooky at 9:40 AM on May 7, 2023
This is interesting because both Woz and Musk have signed the Pause AI letter, and Musk has been an AI fearmonger for some time.
Except, I guess, when it comes to his own products.
I'll admit that I tend to be optimistic about the prospects for AI drivers. That may be because I have such a low opinion of human drivers that it seems like it shouldn't be that hard for the machines to do a better job.
posted by adamrice at 9:47 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Except, I guess, when it comes to his own products.
I'll admit that I tend to be optimistic about the prospects for AI drivers. That may be because I have such a low opinion of human drivers that it seems like it shouldn't be that hard for the machines to do a better job.
posted by adamrice at 9:47 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Fucking is, though.
I too have a low opinion of human drivers, but that's mainly because I share the widespread cognitive bias that has me rating my own safe driving skills as well above average.
Simple fact is that continuously and accurately classifying one's surroundings as either obstacles or scenery, while controlling a ton or two of machinery moving at tens of metres per second, is just a genuinely difficult thing to do; and it remains the case that people deal with the inevitable edge cases far more reliably than machines can.
posted by flabdablet at 10:04 AM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
I too have a low opinion of human drivers, but that's mainly because I share the widespread cognitive bias that has me rating my own safe driving skills as well above average.
Simple fact is that continuously and accurately classifying one's surroundings as either obstacles or scenery, while controlling a ton or two of machinery moving at tens of metres per second, is just a genuinely difficult thing to do; and it remains the case that people deal with the inevitable edge cases far more reliably than machines can.
posted by flabdablet at 10:04 AM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
Holy shit touch-screen controls... my 4-yr old Toyota Yaris does it right IMHO -- touch-screen for the entertainment system, but it's disabled as soon as the car starts moving. There are also physical controls that are easy to use without taking your eyes off the road. Why is it that cheap econo-boxes are better designed than those luxury monsters?
posted by phliar at 10:05 AM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by phliar at 10:05 AM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm not a Snakehead.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Why is it that cheap econo-boxes are better designed than those luxury monsters?
Because luxury monsters are primarily designed to appeal to the kind of mind most susceptible to billionaire personality disorder.
posted by flabdablet at 10:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
Because luxury monsters are primarily designed to appeal to the kind of mind most susceptible to billionaire personality disorder.
posted by flabdablet at 10:06 AM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
It does seem like the ideal real test for self-driving cars would be to take a small-ish town, maybe 10,000 people, and have all the inhabitants replace their cars with the kind of autonomous car that not only drives but also talks to the other cars around it. That's long been the "this is how it gets safest" tipping point they tout -- all the cars will work together for maximum safety.
Can we put this town on an island, one accessible only via boat or aircraft?
...Just in case.
posted by delfin at 10:10 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Can we put this town on an island, one accessible only via boat or aircraft?
...Just in case.
posted by delfin at 10:10 AM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Enough of this "autonomous vehicles" nonsense. Start calling them what they are: driverless horseless carriages
posted by oulipian at 10:20 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by oulipian at 10:20 AM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
Musk has been an AI fearmonger for some time
By signal-boosting the neo-eugenicist fiction that has an artificial general intelligence achieve exponential self-improvement and thereby render humanity obsolete, Musk inflates public perceptions of what present-day "AI" is capable of, and what it's likely to become capable of in the foreseeable future, far beyond anything supported by informed reason. So his fearmongering, like everything else he does, is 100% marketing hype and needs to be understood as such.
The genuine danger that AI poses to humanity is the way Musk and others like him continue to drive marketing decisions that wedge half-assed designs based on machine learning into every conceivable niche, most of which they have no fucking business going anywhere near.
It's the exact same approach that puts a huge touch screen right where it's most likely to distract the driver: why design something safety-oriented when instead we can flog cheap flashy bullshit that looks great in the glossy photos?
Musk is what engineer's disease looks like without the engineering part.
posted by flabdablet at 10:35 AM on May 7, 2023 [35 favorites]
By signal-boosting the neo-eugenicist fiction that has an artificial general intelligence achieve exponential self-improvement and thereby render humanity obsolete, Musk inflates public perceptions of what present-day "AI" is capable of, and what it's likely to become capable of in the foreseeable future, far beyond anything supported by informed reason. So his fearmongering, like everything else he does, is 100% marketing hype and needs to be understood as such.
The genuine danger that AI poses to humanity is the way Musk and others like him continue to drive marketing decisions that wedge half-assed designs based on machine learning into every conceivable niche, most of which they have no fucking business going anywhere near.
It's the exact same approach that puts a huge touch screen right where it's most likely to distract the driver: why design something safety-oriented when instead we can flog cheap flashy bullshit that looks great in the glossy photos?
Musk is what engineer's disease looks like without the engineering part.
posted by flabdablet at 10:35 AM on May 7, 2023 [35 favorites]
You can safely ignore “concerns about AI” from anyone who thinks Roko's basilisk is a real, clever or interesting thing, because as above its either going to be charlatanism or sales or at best extremely dumb true belief in nonsense.
posted by Artw at 10:39 AM on May 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by Artw at 10:39 AM on May 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
there is an optimal use case for autonomous driving that would actually be an improvement over current human behavior: restricted access highways.
GM's Super Cruise and Mercedes Drive Pilot both operate only on restricted highways -- the latter moving towards Level 3 functionality, meaning the driver can take their attention off the road until the system summons them back. Since Elon is not involved, these systems are much more conservative than Tesla's YOLO bumper car simulator.
That said, there have been a couple of edge cases that these systems can't handle (well, at least without LiDAR.) Once I approached what looked like a shredded tire tread, but it turned out to be a dropped driveshaft and gearbox. I swerved, the car behind me didn't and blew out a couple of tires.
posted by credulous at 10:42 AM on May 7, 2023
GM's Super Cruise and Mercedes Drive Pilot both operate only on restricted highways -- the latter moving towards Level 3 functionality, meaning the driver can take their attention off the road until the system summons them back. Since Elon is not involved, these systems are much more conservative than Tesla's YOLO bumper car simulator.
That said, there have been a couple of edge cases that these systems can't handle (well, at least without LiDAR.) Once I approached what looked like a shredded tire tread, but it turned out to be a dropped driveshaft and gearbox. I swerved, the car behind me didn't and blew out a couple of tires.
posted by credulous at 10:42 AM on May 7, 2023
Oh do the cars talk to pedestrians?
Protected by Viper. Stand back!
posted by Naberius at 10:46 AM on May 7, 2023 [12 favorites]
Protected by Viper. Stand back!
posted by Naberius at 10:46 AM on May 7, 2023 [12 favorites]
I got to experience Tesla auto-driving last week as a passenger and I seriously thought it was going to be fun and let me tell you it was fucking terrifying.
He said "it kind of drives like a 9-year-old" and I thought he was way too generous. It stops at stop signs in the wrong place, far enough back so we couldn't see oncoming traffic. It spotted some pedestrians but not all of them. Sometimes it would misidentify potholes as animals. Lastly, we narrowly avoided a crash during this trip that only didn't happen because the human driver took over.
It's amazing this shit is legal.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:47 AM on May 7, 2023 [51 favorites]
He said "it kind of drives like a 9-year-old" and I thought he was way too generous. It stops at stop signs in the wrong place, far enough back so we couldn't see oncoming traffic. It spotted some pedestrians but not all of them. Sometimes it would misidentify potholes as animals. Lastly, we narrowly avoided a crash during this trip that only didn't happen because the human driver took over.
It's amazing this shit is legal.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:47 AM on May 7, 2023 [51 favorites]
I was recently in a Tesla owned by someone else and we talked about the touchscreen issue and the Slate article jedicus linked above about the pushback against cheap touchscreens in cars, since the article points out touchscreens are much cheaper to make and install than buttons and dials. Anyway, I was stunned when he told me that sometimes he starts the car and the touchscreen just stays dead. He starts driving anyway, and said "it usually comes on within a few minutes."
I just sat there and let that statement hang in the air.
posted by mediareport at 10:49 AM on May 7, 2023 [18 favorites]
I just sat there and let that statement hang in the air.
posted by mediareport at 10:49 AM on May 7, 2023 [18 favorites]
Car companies subcontract all the bits inside the car to other people, and there’s a whole parallel industry of companies that just build plastic for bumpers or door window controls. The name-brand you’ve heard of gives them the spec, and they make it. If you have one flatscreen instead of a dozen knobs you’ve suddenly cut out a huge amount of meetings and negotiations, alongside dropping install time.
posted by The River Ivel at 12:23 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by The River Ivel at 12:23 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls?
I really hope not. I have a completely standard white-bread American accent and yet those automated phone systems never understand me. The voice-to-text on my phone works better, but is still very hit and miss. Having to learn a set of voice commands, and then repeat them until the car hopefully understands, while driving, sounds like hell. Tactile switches work fine and none of these "solutions" is an improvement.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:40 PM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
I really hope not. I have a completely standard white-bread American accent and yet those automated phone systems never understand me. The voice-to-text on my phone works better, but is still very hit and miss. Having to learn a set of voice commands, and then repeat them until the car hopefully understands, while driving, sounds like hell. Tactile switches work fine and none of these "solutions" is an improvement.
posted by Dip Flash at 12:40 PM on May 7, 2023 [5 favorites]
"alexa - stop car. ALEXA STOP THE CAR! STOP THE CAR!!!!"
posted by Artw at 12:44 PM on May 7, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by Artw at 12:44 PM on May 7, 2023 [11 favorites]
Can we put this town on an island, one accessible only via boat or aircraft?
Or someplace only accessible by Starship, even.
posted by snofoam at 12:52 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Or someplace only accessible by Starship, even.
posted by snofoam at 12:52 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Or someplace only accessible by Starship, even.
We built this city on rock and roll and self-driving cars.
posted by hippybear at 12:53 PM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
We built this city on rock and roll and self-driving cars.
posted by hippybear at 12:53 PM on May 7, 2023 [9 favorites]
we built it shitty
we built it shitty on crock and troll
built it shitty
we built it shitty on crock and tro-ohll
posted by flabdablet at 1:06 PM on May 7, 2023 [13 favorites]
we built it shitty on crock and troll
built it shitty
we built it shitty on crock and tro-ohll
posted by flabdablet at 1:06 PM on May 7, 2023 [13 favorites]
I don’t even like using cruise control because it feels like I’m not controlling the car actively enough, man.
posted by Occula at 1:45 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by Occula at 1:45 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
OMG as someone with a bit of a lead foot and who is prone to muscle cramping when holding in an unnatural position for a long while, I find cruise control any time I can use it is a major worry-saver for me. I don't like driving like a yo-yo, being too fast and then overcompensating to be too slow, but I can find myself wanting to pull off the road to give my calf a break if I'm too consistent with my speed in certain vehicles.
It is important to know when it can be used and when not, however.
posted by hippybear at 1:48 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
It is important to know when it can be used and when not, however.
posted by hippybear at 1:48 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
There are good touchscreen controls and bad physical controls. My 2023 VW GTI has a touchscreen for a lot of controls, including climate. There is a “button” (touch sensitive thing) on the dash to bring up the climate screen, a touch slider for temperature, and a “max defrost” button, but most of the controls are through the touchscreen. And you know, I find it safer and easier to use than my Honda van that has dozens of tiny little buttons that all look the same and are awkward to reach. Even after 10 years I’m still squinting at the buttons trying to find the right one. On the new car all I have to do is touch the climate button and the screen turns into a great big climate control panel, with easy to see and brightly lit up controls. Even then, the automatic climate control is so good I rarely mess with it, just set the temp and let the car do its thing. It isn’t as intuitive as the three mechanical climate dials on my 2004 VW Golf, but on the other hand I am always messing with those to try to get the cabin comfortable.
posted by fimbulvetr at 1:59 PM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by fimbulvetr at 1:59 PM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
So let's actually do that. Let's test and see what happens. I mean, wasn't there some town in the US that was a test market for Yugo and basically everyone there had one?
That sounds like something you'd need a society to pull off. Unfortunately, all we have is a market.
posted by Reyturner at 2:13 PM on May 7, 2023 [26 favorites]
That sounds like something you'd need a society to pull off. Unfortunately, all we have is a market.
posted by Reyturner at 2:13 PM on May 7, 2023 [26 favorites]
Part of the reason I’m still driving my 2007 minivan is that I don’t believe a 2023 car with all this tech is going to run for 16 years without having to upgrade and replace a bunch of screens and gewgaws. The other part is that it still drives great, and now that I’m too old to be cool, I’ve realized that the identity of the metal box I use to get from A to B is not that important. I love a big volume knob and up/down temperature switches. I do think a backup camera and phone input would be nice but *shrugs*.
posted by caviar2d2 at 2:45 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by caviar2d2 at 2:45 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
I’ve realized that the identity of the metal box I use to get from A to B is not that important.
I broke myself of thinking of cars as anything other than a fancy hammer when I was living in Phoenix and working as a point-to-point radio dispatched car courier, driving 350 miles a day in urban traffic. A car is just a device to get you to a place, much like a hammer is a device to drive a nail. Gold plating the hammer doesn't make it do the job any better.
posted by hippybear at 2:49 PM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
I broke myself of thinking of cars as anything other than a fancy hammer when I was living in Phoenix and working as a point-to-point radio dispatched car courier, driving 350 miles a day in urban traffic. A car is just a device to get you to a place, much like a hammer is a device to drive a nail. Gold plating the hammer doesn't make it do the job any better.
posted by hippybear at 2:49 PM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
I do think a backup camera and phone input would be nice but *shrugs*.
We have a company around here called Car Toys which will install such things. Maybe you have something similar in your part of the world.
posted by hippybear at 2:50 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
We have a company around here called Car Toys which will install such things. Maybe you have something similar in your part of the world.
posted by hippybear at 2:50 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
"alexa - stop car. ALEXA STOP THE CAR! STOP THE CAR!!!!"
Setting destination to Dakar. Warning: this vehicle is not equipped for oceanic voyages. Warning: submarine excursions in this vehicle are invariably fatal. Beginning trip. We will ride eternal, shiny and chrome.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:05 PM on May 7, 2023 [11 favorites]
Setting destination to Dakar. Warning: this vehicle is not equipped for oceanic voyages. Warning: submarine excursions in this vehicle are invariably fatal. Beginning trip. We will ride eternal, shiny and chrome.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:05 PM on May 7, 2023 [11 favorites]
"Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls?"
Doesn't look promising.
Rest in Peas: The Unrecognized Death of Speech Recognition (2010)
At least for the immediate future. A lot of the people over at HN were talking about their difficulties with the current crop of voice recognition software.
posted by aleph at 3:26 PM on May 7, 2023
I mean, wasn't there some town in the US that was a test market for Yugo and basically everyone there had one?
posted by hippybear at 11:42 AM on May 7 [2 favorites +] [!]
That was a bit of schtick in the movie Drowning Mona. (Everyone in town drove a Yugo b/c it was the test market, and according to the "Trivia" on the IMDB site, a title card explaining this is how the movie begins )
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 3:59 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 11:42 AM on May 7 [2 favorites +] [!]
That was a bit of schtick in the movie Drowning Mona. (Everyone in town drove a Yugo b/c it was the test market, and according to the "Trivia" on the IMDB site, a title card explaining this is how the movie begins )
posted by Larry David Syndrome at 3:59 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I have a 2020 Prius Prime. Before that, I leased a 2017 Prius Prime. That one had the large touchscreen, which included climate control. I really didn't like it, so when we got the 2020 model, we got the smaller screen and switches for climate. (How would I know what temperature I want the interior to be? I like the old-fashioned idea of-'hotter' or 'colder')
I like the buttons much better. But both years had voice controls, and they seemed to work just fine. It's just that I'm not interested in conversing with my car.
posted by MtDewd at 4:01 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I like the buttons much better. But both years had voice controls, and they seemed to work just fine. It's just that I'm not interested in conversing with my car.
posted by MtDewd at 4:01 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Good job everyone’s been working overtime for four decades to kill all public transport.
posted by Artw at 4:07 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by Artw at 4:07 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
New Cars Now Out Of Reach for Many
That article is paywalled on my computer but I was able to read it earlier on my phone. The precipitous decline in the number of new cars for sale under $20k, combined with the big rise in car company profits, was what stood out to me and highlights some disconnect between discussions of premium self-driving cars and what most people can actually afford to consider.
Granted that there are all kinds of barriers to entry, but to my uneducated eye there looks like a huge gap in the market right now that could potentially be filled by one or more of the newer Chinese car companies. The demand for cheap and reasonably reliable transportation that was once filled by the VW Beetle and later the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla still exists, but just isn't being served.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:24 PM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
That article is paywalled on my computer but I was able to read it earlier on my phone. The precipitous decline in the number of new cars for sale under $20k, combined with the big rise in car company profits, was what stood out to me and highlights some disconnect between discussions of premium self-driving cars and what most people can actually afford to consider.
Granted that there are all kinds of barriers to entry, but to my uneducated eye there looks like a huge gap in the market right now that could potentially be filled by one or more of the newer Chinese car companies. The demand for cheap and reasonably reliable transportation that was once filled by the VW Beetle and later the Honda Civic and Toyota Corolla still exists, but just isn't being served.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:24 PM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
I do think a backup camera and phone input would be nice
Once you use a good backup camera, it is a real game changer.
posted by mmascolino at 4:36 PM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Once you use a good backup camera, it is a real game changer.
posted by mmascolino at 4:36 PM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
"Any man who puts his life in the hands of a bunch of b̶a̶t̶t̶e̶r̶i̶e̶s̶ battery operated autopilots is an idiot."
-Gallaghers Grandpa.
Rm9sbG93ZXJz
posted by clavdivs at 4:44 PM on May 7, 2023
-Gallaghers Grandpa.
Rm9sbG93ZXJz
posted by clavdivs at 4:44 PM on May 7, 2023
Oh do the cars talk to pedestrians?
That's the horn. FunTrivia: The original audio mix of Pixar's Cars was pretty insufferable before the studio demanded the 'human' dub.
Well, more insufferable.
posted by Sparx at 4:53 PM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
That's the horn. FunTrivia: The original audio mix of Pixar's Cars was pretty insufferable before the studio demanded the 'human' dub.
Well, more insufferable.
posted by Sparx at 4:53 PM on May 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
We don't have too many teslas where I live, but I did get to see one make a left turn into an oncoming lane (my lane!) the other morning, so... early impressions are not great.
I do sincerely hope that self-driving tech gets to be workable one day. And that day comes well after we all get shiny de-car-ified city planning with trams and bike infrastructure and we can all just travel how we'd like without hurting one another. I know that sounds insincere when I write it out, but it's killing me that our cities are mostly choosing to NOT do things that would make our lives better and safer!
posted by Acari at 5:55 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I do sincerely hope that self-driving tech gets to be workable one day. And that day comes well after we all get shiny de-car-ified city planning with trams and bike infrastructure and we can all just travel how we'd like without hurting one another. I know that sounds insincere when I write it out, but it's killing me that our cities are mostly choosing to NOT do things that would make our lives better and safer!
posted by Acari at 5:55 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Enough of this "autonomous vehicles" nonsense. Start calling them what they are: driverless horseless [hearse]
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 6:13 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Reasonably Everything Happens at 6:13 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Narrator:
A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one.
Business woman on plane:
Are there a lot of these kinds of accidents?
Narrator:
You wouldn't believe.
Business woman on plane:
Which car company do you work for?
Narrator:
A major one.
posted by oldnumberseven at 6:39 PM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
A new car built by my company leaves somewhere traveling at 60 mph. The rear differential locks up. The car crashes and burns with everyone trapped inside. Now, should we initiate a recall? Take the number of vehicles in the field, A, multiply by the probable rate of failure, B, multiply by the average out-of-court settlement, C. A times B times C equals X. If X is less than the cost of a recall, we don't do one.
Business woman on plane:
Are there a lot of these kinds of accidents?
Narrator:
You wouldn't believe.
Business woman on plane:
Which car company do you work for?
Narrator:
A major one.
posted by oldnumberseven at 6:39 PM on May 7, 2023 [4 favorites]
Cars should be limited to 20mph in urban areas, and be bottom of the priority list in areas with human populations. Self driving cars do not solve the majority of the problems that humans have with transportation.
posted by asok at 7:07 PM on May 7, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by asok at 7:07 PM on May 7, 2023 [7 favorites]
Touch screen climate control was definitely invented by someone who lives in California. In the winter, it is not unusual for it to be 10°F when I leave for work in the morning. I would not want to have to take my gloves off to adjust the heat in my car.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:10 PM on May 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:10 PM on May 7, 2023 [8 favorites]
Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls?
Take me to Achorage, Alaska.
posted by SunSnork at 8:13 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Take me to Achorage, Alaska.
posted by SunSnork at 8:13 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I would not want to have to take my gloves off to adjust the heat in my car.
I’m in Ottawa, Ontario. The touch screen in my car works fine with gloves on, so it depends on the car. The heated steering wheel means I don’t wear gloves for long though.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:35 PM on May 7, 2023
I’m in Ottawa, Ontario. The touch screen in my car works fine with gloves on, so it depends on the car. The heated steering wheel means I don’t wear gloves for long though.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:35 PM on May 7, 2023
MeFi convinced me some time ago that the only time self-driving cars will work is when all cars are self-driving. No matter how good an auto-pilot is, it still has to deal with humans controlling other cars. Cars it can't talk to in the way it can talk to every other auto-piloted car around it (in theory). Cars piloted by beings with the buggiest software you've ever seen. I hold onto that hope on the basis that I'll almost certainly be dead by the time that happens so I won't have to care.
posted by dg at 8:48 PM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by dg at 8:48 PM on May 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Touchscreens provide no haptic feedback and they're modal insofar as buttons and sliders can change position depending on which screen you're displaying. So to use them you have to take your eyes off the road and re-focus at close range. Which is inherently dangerous in traffic.
Yes exactly! It’s baffling that they have become the norm, and I’m
glad to hear the backlash against them has started.
posted by joedan at 9:21 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yes exactly! It’s baffling that they have become the norm, and I’m
glad to hear the backlash against them has started.
posted by joedan at 9:21 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
There are more cars than just Teslas already on autopilot mode, just not intentionally. I've forgotten count of how many drivers I see tapping away on their fucking Androids while driving or at stop lights.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:00 PM on May 7, 2023
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:00 PM on May 7, 2023
MeFi convinced me some time ago that the only time self-driving cars will work is when all cars are self-driving. No matter how good an auto-pilot is, it still has to deal with humans controlling other cars.
It also has to deal with humans controlling bicycles, humans controlling mobility scooters, humans controlling their own feet, humans barely old enough to control their own feet, panicked animals, dead animals, roadside trees, fallen tree limbs, fallen rocks, badly parked vehicles, crashed vehicles, discarded packaging, shredded truck tyres, fallen loads, flooded roads, icy roads, oil slicks, fog, roads that don't go where the maps say they do, fallen bridges, potholes, sinkholes, obsolete lane markings now re-exposed by road wear, mud, sand, corrugations, blinding lights, blinding rain, detours, assorted kinds of internal failure and more.
What a driver needs to do is maintain a continuously updated world model whose every perceptible feature is continually being classified and reclassified as either obstacle or scenery, while simultaneously predicting spontaneous upgrades from scenery to obstacle and dealing effectively and safely with all the obstacles. Since these are essentially the same tasks that any mobile autonomous being needs to perform just to stay alive, human beings are by nature pretty well suited to it.
When driving brings us undone, it usually does so by exceeding the maximum rate at which we can safely perceive and classify our surroundings. There are well-understood mitigations for this: drive according to the conditions rather than the posted speed limit, don't drive while chemically impaired, don't drive while fatigued, don't drive inattentively and so forth.
Machines don't get chemically impaired, they don't get fatigued and they can be designed so as not to display attention deficits. But they have nowhere near the evolution-honed world-modelling skill of any animal and are therefore far more likely to get routine ongoing obstacle vs scenery classifications wrong. Which is why, when Teslas do crash, they do so in ways that strike us as so spectacularly stupid.
Autopilot is way harder for land vehicles than it is for aircraft exactly because the obstacle to scenery ratio is so much higher for 2D solids-dominated spaces than it is for 3D gas-dominated ones.
posted by flabdablet at 10:21 PM on May 7, 2023 [11 favorites]
It also has to deal with humans controlling bicycles, humans controlling mobility scooters, humans controlling their own feet, humans barely old enough to control their own feet, panicked animals, dead animals, roadside trees, fallen tree limbs, fallen rocks, badly parked vehicles, crashed vehicles, discarded packaging, shredded truck tyres, fallen loads, flooded roads, icy roads, oil slicks, fog, roads that don't go where the maps say they do, fallen bridges, potholes, sinkholes, obsolete lane markings now re-exposed by road wear, mud, sand, corrugations, blinding lights, blinding rain, detours, assorted kinds of internal failure and more.
What a driver needs to do is maintain a continuously updated world model whose every perceptible feature is continually being classified and reclassified as either obstacle or scenery, while simultaneously predicting spontaneous upgrades from scenery to obstacle and dealing effectively and safely with all the obstacles. Since these are essentially the same tasks that any mobile autonomous being needs to perform just to stay alive, human beings are by nature pretty well suited to it.
When driving brings us undone, it usually does so by exceeding the maximum rate at which we can safely perceive and classify our surroundings. There are well-understood mitigations for this: drive according to the conditions rather than the posted speed limit, don't drive while chemically impaired, don't drive while fatigued, don't drive inattentively and so forth.
Machines don't get chemically impaired, they don't get fatigued and they can be designed so as not to display attention deficits. But they have nowhere near the evolution-honed world-modelling skill of any animal and are therefore far more likely to get routine ongoing obstacle vs scenery classifications wrong. Which is why, when Teslas do crash, they do so in ways that strike us as so spectacularly stupid.
Autopilot is way harder for land vehicles than it is for aircraft exactly because the obstacle to scenery ratio is so much higher for 2D solids-dominated spaces than it is for 3D gas-dominated ones.
posted by flabdablet at 10:21 PM on May 7, 2023 [11 favorites]
I have no beef with traffic-aware highway cruise control, or even highway lane keeping, being used to augment attentive driving. Marketing those features as any kind of substitute for attentive driving, though, is criminally irresponsible.
posted by flabdablet at 10:38 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 10:38 PM on May 7, 2023 [10 favorites]
I got to experience Tesla auto-driving last week as a passenger and I seriously thought it was going to be fun and let me tell you it was fucking terrifying.
I had to make a 1,600 mile drive last year so rented a Model 3 from Hertz since the lane-keeping auto steer / cruise control aka "AP" is better than other alternatives from rentals.
It was pretty good but I did experience the 'phantom braking' thing every hour or two of driving. Probably the same thing that caused the serious accident in SF Bay Bridge tunnel last year.
It also liked to dive into neighboring merge lanes that opened up to the left or right, if there wasn't enough paint marking them off from my lane of travel. This is the same behavior that got that Apple dude killed in 2018.
Having said that, this article is just clickbait being served from a dodgy content farm site and is not all that informative, in that Wozniak is talking about "Autopilot", something that Tesla stopped working on 4-5 years ago as it shifted its autonomy team to the "FSD" replacement that has been coming RSN since it started.
FSD has been advancing at a good clip since the "beta testers" (more like alpha testers really) have been releasing videos on it since late 2020. Unlike Elog, I'm not 100% confident the team has the right technology to "solve" autonomy, but I give them a 50-50 chance of making it safe enough for me to take naps as the car drives me up & down I-5 to distance destinations by say 2030. Could be 2025, or could be 2050.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:08 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
I had to make a 1,600 mile drive last year so rented a Model 3 from Hertz since the lane-keeping auto steer / cruise control aka "AP" is better than other alternatives from rentals.
It was pretty good but I did experience the 'phantom braking' thing every hour or two of driving. Probably the same thing that caused the serious accident in SF Bay Bridge tunnel last year.
It also liked to dive into neighboring merge lanes that opened up to the left or right, if there wasn't enough paint marking them off from my lane of travel. This is the same behavior that got that Apple dude killed in 2018.
Having said that, this article is just clickbait being served from a dodgy content farm site and is not all that informative, in that Wozniak is talking about "Autopilot", something that Tesla stopped working on 4-5 years ago as it shifted its autonomy team to the "FSD" replacement that has been coming RSN since it started.
FSD has been advancing at a good clip since the "beta testers" (more like alpha testers really) have been releasing videos on it since late 2020. Unlike Elog, I'm not 100% confident the team has the right technology to "solve" autonomy, but I give them a 50-50 chance of making it safe enough for me to take naps as the car drives me up & down I-5 to distance destinations by say 2030. Could be 2025, or could be 2050.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:08 PM on May 7, 2023 [1 favorite]
As was pointed out the backlash against touch screen controls has started. I expected it would go that way as soon as the car and tech journalists started to become sceptical after years of demanding bigger screens and "cleaner" interiors. It seems like regular people disliked them all along.
A Swedish magazine performed a test of touch vs physical buttons last year: Physical buttons outperform touchscreens in new cars, test finds
posted by Harald74 at 1:13 AM on May 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
A Swedish magazine performed a test of touch vs physical buttons last year: Physical buttons outperform touchscreens in new cars, test finds
posted by Harald74 at 1:13 AM on May 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
Oceans wet, test finds. Fire hot, test finds. Cops sell drugs, test finds.
Fuxache.
posted by flabdablet at 1:33 AM on May 8, 2023
Fuxache.
posted by flabdablet at 1:33 AM on May 8, 2023
I'm solidly on team 'physical button.' What, really is Woz after? (Or is he not after anything specific, and just letting his mighty opinion be known?)
On the other hand, the notion of getting into a car and having it bring me somewhere is one I would loooove to see happen. After 40-odd years of driving I would be more than happy to never drive again.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:34 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
On the other hand, the notion of getting into a car and having it bring me somewhere is one I would loooove to see happen. After 40-odd years of driving I would be more than happy to never drive again.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:34 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'll drive you. I love driving. I put that down to 90% of my driving hours having been done with a manual gearbox and no cruise control so that my brain always has something to do, and consistently approaching the driving task as a form of dance at which I have an opportunity to practice gaining skill, as opposed to an embuggerance I am required to endure between existing at A and existing at B.
posted by flabdablet at 1:46 AM on May 8, 2023 [9 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 1:46 AM on May 8, 2023 [9 favorites]
Last year, Wozniak recalled the “phantom braking” issues that were plaguing him while driving his Model S in an interview with Stephen “Steve-O” Glover, causing him to slow down significantly while driving on the interstate.
“This is so dangerous!” he told Glover at the time. “It’s happened to us a hundred times, at least, because we drive so much.”
After the first, say, DOZEN dangerous incidents, wouldn't you just get a new car? Particularly if you have Wozniak money?
posted by Drab_Parts at 4:39 AM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
“This is so dangerous!” he told Glover at the time. “It’s happened to us a hundred times, at least, because we drive so much.”
After the first, say, DOZEN dangerous incidents, wouldn't you just get a new car? Particularly if you have Wozniak money?
posted by Drab_Parts at 4:39 AM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Having said that, this article is just clickbait being served from a dodgy content farm site and is not all that informative, in that Wozniak is talking about "Autopilot", something that Tesla stopped working on 4-5 years ago as it shifted its autonomy team to the "FSD" replacement that has been coming RSN since it started.
I know "Autopilot" is capitalized in the article, but some people do refer to all self-driving car functionality as "autopilot" and I think it's a bit of a deceptive turn of phrase to reject any complaints about generic "autopilot" software as invalid under the assumption that those complaints must be referring specifically to the capital-A Autopilot product which has been replaced by a newer product called "FSD". The difference between Autopilot and FSD is completely irrelevant for anyone outside of Tesla's marketing department and one can argue that the name change only exists so people can say "that complaint about Autopilot is invalid, Tesla's use FSD now"
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:26 AM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
I know "Autopilot" is capitalized in the article, but some people do refer to all self-driving car functionality as "autopilot" and I think it's a bit of a deceptive turn of phrase to reject any complaints about generic "autopilot" software as invalid under the assumption that those complaints must be referring specifically to the capital-A Autopilot product which has been replaced by a newer product called "FSD". The difference between Autopilot and FSD is completely irrelevant for anyone outside of Tesla's marketing department and one can argue that the name change only exists so people can say "that complaint about Autopilot is invalid, Tesla's use FSD now"
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:26 AM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
My touchscreen story is that I went shopping for a new car in 2011, and focused in on Honda Fits because they were relatively inexpensive, about as much car as I needed, and Hondas. Unfortunately, I went car shopping just after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, and the disruption of the supply chains meant that the supply of new Honda Fits was drying up, so I went scrambling around central Illinois looking for one. I almost picked up one with a touchscreen (or maybe just a flatscreen with buttons around it, it's been over a decade), but... the salesperson couldn't show me how it worked. Think about that for a moment. I ended up going with a Fit with old-timey analog controls, and still have it 12 years later.
posted by Halloween Jack at 6:52 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Halloween Jack at 6:52 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've invented an algorithm that will, if adopted by all self-driving cars, significantly reduce the risk of death to others, and I hereby release it for free for the good of all mankind:
This is not a hard problem to solve, if one wants to optimize for preserving human lives. It's just that a certain amount of pedestrian death is acceptable losses for policymakers, civil engineers, automakers, and American drivers.
posted by gauche at 7:37 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
if($speed>20mph) { // check if exceeding unsafe speed
slow down; // take corrective action
}This is not a hard problem to solve, if one wants to optimize for preserving human lives. It's just that a certain amount of pedestrian death is acceptable losses for policymakers, civil engineers, automakers, and American drivers.
posted by gauche at 7:37 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
Touch screen climate control was definitely invented by someone who lives in California. In the winter, it is not unusual for it to be 10°F when I leave for work in the morning.
It's actually a class thing, and I something I find incredibly psychologically interesting for a couple of reasons:
1) car climate control is moving from basically a window unit, with a variable speed AC fan and a vague dial to central air conditioning system, with just a thermostat. Only the newest and most expensive ACs even have a variable speed fan, and the inside blower is generally optimized for quiet, not maximum air movement or quick cooling or whatever. And think of central AC systems- that NEST's 'innovation' was they would turn your temperature down because most units beforehand were 'set a temp and forget about it'. So expecting the car AC to be something like that (ie: set to 72F) and almost never adjust it is the expectation. But that assumes that there is a single driver, because of issue #2:
2) Studies show that people really enjoy making very small changes to their AC, and say they can 'feel' the difference between 72F, 73F, 74F, which rounded are all within 1 degree C, so again why I think for people Fahrenheit is far superior. I don't recall AC systems in Europe -do you get that kind of control, ie 22.5 C or just 22 ,or 23? In any case, I think car AC systems are an interesting case when it comes to 'decision fatigue' or 'freedom from choice', because basically people are asking for minute, nearly infinite, personal control over the AC system vs setting and letting the system make choices for them. That also basically means that every person has a 2-4F degree range they feel most comfortable in, but the actual temperatures have pretty wide variation. For some it's 60s, for others 80s. Really.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:42 AM on May 8, 2023
It's actually a class thing, and I something I find incredibly psychologically interesting for a couple of reasons:
1) car climate control is moving from basically a window unit, with a variable speed AC fan and a vague dial to central air conditioning system, with just a thermostat. Only the newest and most expensive ACs even have a variable speed fan, and the inside blower is generally optimized for quiet, not maximum air movement or quick cooling or whatever. And think of central AC systems- that NEST's 'innovation' was they would turn your temperature down because most units beforehand were 'set a temp and forget about it'. So expecting the car AC to be something like that (ie: set to 72F) and almost never adjust it is the expectation. But that assumes that there is a single driver, because of issue #2:
2) Studies show that people really enjoy making very small changes to their AC, and say they can 'feel' the difference between 72F, 73F, 74F, which rounded are all within 1 degree C, so again why I think for people Fahrenheit is far superior. I don't recall AC systems in Europe -do you get that kind of control, ie 22.5 C or just 22 ,or 23? In any case, I think car AC systems are an interesting case when it comes to 'decision fatigue' or 'freedom from choice', because basically people are asking for minute, nearly infinite, personal control over the AC system vs setting and letting the system make choices for them. That also basically means that every person has a 2-4F degree range they feel most comfortable in, but the actual temperatures have pretty wide variation. For some it's 60s, for others 80s. Really.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:42 AM on May 8, 2023
Also count me in on the Subaru touchscreen system dislike - I'm not sure the model but my MIL just got one and the nav system is a 2D good ship triangle which was top of the line for my blackberry in 2002, and if there is an option to make it 3D, I couldn't find it in the manual or in the system. Also there were stupid alerts (like wind alert for like 20 mph winds) which came up constantly, and you had to click some button to get rid of them, and they would appear in the middle of clicking other buttons on the touchscreen.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:44 AM on May 8, 2023
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:44 AM on May 8, 2023
The hilarious thing is that Tesla is now selling insurance and people think it is great!
Tesla will not be incentivised twice over to have the car's extensive surveillance infra paint the worst possible picture of you it can to protect its car's reputation and to deny your insurance claim.
posted by srboisvert at 8:10 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Tesla will not be incentivised twice over to have the car's extensive surveillance infra paint the worst possible picture of you it can to protect its car's reputation and to deny your insurance claim.
posted by srboisvert at 8:10 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Part of the reason I’m still driving my 2007 minivan is that I don’t believe a 2023 car with all this tech is going to run for 16 years without having to upgrade and replace a bunch of screens and gewgaws. The other part is that it still drives great
In a reasonable world you'd want to upgrade to get better fuel efficiency and cleaner emissions. Maybe improved safety features as well. Alas we have not been that world for at least two decades.
posted by srboisvert at 8:27 AM on May 8, 2023
In a reasonable world you'd want to upgrade to get better fuel efficiency and cleaner emissions. Maybe improved safety features as well. Alas we have not been that world for at least two decades.
posted by srboisvert at 8:27 AM on May 8, 2023
After the first, say, DOZEN dangerous incidents, wouldn't you just get a new car?
That Apple employee whose Tesla eventually smashed itself into the concrete divider had told both his wife and his brother about how the car had been aiming itself at that thing since getting a software update, and yet he apparently chose to keep on not using fully manual control on that stretch until big-A Autopilot finally succeeded in hitting it.
People are weird and habit is strong stuff.
I am surprised, though, that a software engineer of all people would choose to trust his life to something so manifestly buggy. As an ex software developer it's been my experience that those of us in that profession are the most skeptical about the reliability of software systems in general, and especially systems built by outfits with self-aggrandizing loons like Musk in the C-suite. We've seen the shit that gets buried in those things and the duct tape and baling wire used to disguise it.
posted by flabdablet at 8:35 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
That Apple employee whose Tesla eventually smashed itself into the concrete divider had told both his wife and his brother about how the car had been aiming itself at that thing since getting a software update, and yet he apparently chose to keep on not using fully manual control on that stretch until big-A Autopilot finally succeeded in hitting it.
People are weird and habit is strong stuff.
I am surprised, though, that a software engineer of all people would choose to trust his life to something so manifestly buggy. As an ex software developer it's been my experience that those of us in that profession are the most skeptical about the reliability of software systems in general, and especially systems built by outfits with self-aggrandizing loons like Musk in the C-suite. We've seen the shit that gets buried in those things and the duct tape and baling wire used to disguise it.
posted by flabdablet at 8:35 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
If the touchscreen was only for stuff like the navigation system and entertainment my objection would be a lot weaker but as I understand it in the Model 3 and newer Teslas the touchscreen is even used to adjust the climate control!
Model 3s don't even have a real windshield wiper switch!! I leave mine on automatic, but the system doesn't detect rainfall until it's pretty significant. If, say, you live in a coastal region with frequent fog/drizzle, you must navigate an onscreen menu to turn on the windshield wipers. It's weird because -- unlike Tesla problems in extreme cold -- Tesla drivers in the Bay Area had to have experienced this years ago!
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:57 AM on May 8, 2023
Model 3s don't even have a real windshield wiper switch!! I leave mine on automatic, but the system doesn't detect rainfall until it's pretty significant. If, say, you live in a coastal region with frequent fog/drizzle, you must navigate an onscreen menu to turn on the windshield wipers. It's weird because -- unlike Tesla problems in extreme cold -- Tesla drivers in the Bay Area had to have experienced this years ago!
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:57 AM on May 8, 2023
My car ownership progression has been 1962 VW Van -> 1973 VW Super Beetle -> 1982 Mercedes 300D -> 2004 VW Golf TDI -> 2013 Honda Odyssey -> 2023 VW Golf GTI
The '62 van didn't have a fuel gauge, windshield washers, or synchromesh transmission, and only a single circuit master brake cylinder. The '73 beetle was a nice improvement and much safer to drive with a dual-circuit master cylinder, McPherson strut suspension, and some rudimentary crumple zones and what not. The '83 Mercedes had conveniences like power windows and locks, cruise control, an automatic climate system, power steering, power disk brakes, and was so solid it felt like driving a bank vault down the road (with that diesel engine, it had the acceleration of one too). The 2004 Golf was an astounding change -- a diesel engine that actually could accelerate, all sorts of modern advancements. The 2013 van came with a screen, but not a touch screen, with dozens of annoying tiny buttons to control everything and buttons on the steering wheel, and a backup camera. The biggest change was that it was an automatic.
Getting the 2023 VW with a touchscreen and lots of modern automation has been an eye-opener. It is a manual, as I didn't want to give that up, but man. It is a hell of a lot nicer and easier to drive than any other car I've owned. The headlights turn on automatically and the high beams dip automatically, the parking brake sets itself automatically when you turn off the car, the wipers are rain sensing. All the sensors to tell you if the lane next to you is clear or if you are too close to something in front or behind. Adaptive cruise control (which I love) and lane keeping (meh, could take or leave that). Automatic climate control. automatic emergency braking. A radio which finds and lists all the nearby stations by itself. Doors that unlock when I touch the handle, push button start, Apple CarPlay for the phone. Wireless charging. Etc. etc.
Given my previous car-ownership history I wasn't sure what I was getting into with this thing or if I would end up hating the touchscreen and losing all the manual controls and buttons. But you know, I don't miss them at all. The car just works. Now all I do is push the the start button, shift gears and drive. The experience is more like driving an early car like the '62 van or '73 beetle, which had so few features I had nothing to mess with, just pure driving, but with modern safety features and performance. Not like the stupid 2013 van with too many fiddly buttons and a climate system that needs constant adjustment. We still have the 2004 Golf and the van, but neither I nor my wife ever choose do drive one of them over the 2023.
I still worry about the longevity of all those computer systems, but there is not much I can do about that, and I have no romantic notions about old cars. They were a pain-in-the-butt. Things were always failing, they constantly needed valve and timing adjustments and whatnot. They were seriously unsafe with terrible brakes. Engines needed complete rebuilds or replacement after a depressingly short period of driving.
Anyways, too much blathering. Don't knock cars with touchscreens and automation until you give them a fair try. You may be surprised.
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:01 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
The '62 van didn't have a fuel gauge, windshield washers, or synchromesh transmission, and only a single circuit master brake cylinder. The '73 beetle was a nice improvement and much safer to drive with a dual-circuit master cylinder, McPherson strut suspension, and some rudimentary crumple zones and what not. The '83 Mercedes had conveniences like power windows and locks, cruise control, an automatic climate system, power steering, power disk brakes, and was so solid it felt like driving a bank vault down the road (with that diesel engine, it had the acceleration of one too). The 2004 Golf was an astounding change -- a diesel engine that actually could accelerate, all sorts of modern advancements. The 2013 van came with a screen, but not a touch screen, with dozens of annoying tiny buttons to control everything and buttons on the steering wheel, and a backup camera. The biggest change was that it was an automatic.
Getting the 2023 VW with a touchscreen and lots of modern automation has been an eye-opener. It is a manual, as I didn't want to give that up, but man. It is a hell of a lot nicer and easier to drive than any other car I've owned. The headlights turn on automatically and the high beams dip automatically, the parking brake sets itself automatically when you turn off the car, the wipers are rain sensing. All the sensors to tell you if the lane next to you is clear or if you are too close to something in front or behind. Adaptive cruise control (which I love) and lane keeping (meh, could take or leave that). Automatic climate control. automatic emergency braking. A radio which finds and lists all the nearby stations by itself. Doors that unlock when I touch the handle, push button start, Apple CarPlay for the phone. Wireless charging. Etc. etc.
Given my previous car-ownership history I wasn't sure what I was getting into with this thing or if I would end up hating the touchscreen and losing all the manual controls and buttons. But you know, I don't miss them at all. The car just works. Now all I do is push the the start button, shift gears and drive. The experience is more like driving an early car like the '62 van or '73 beetle, which had so few features I had nothing to mess with, just pure driving, but with modern safety features and performance. Not like the stupid 2013 van with too many fiddly buttons and a climate system that needs constant adjustment. We still have the 2004 Golf and the van, but neither I nor my wife ever choose do drive one of them over the 2023.
I still worry about the longevity of all those computer systems, but there is not much I can do about that, and I have no romantic notions about old cars. They were a pain-in-the-butt. Things were always failing, they constantly needed valve and timing adjustments and whatnot. They were seriously unsafe with terrible brakes. Engines needed complete rebuilds or replacement after a depressingly short period of driving.
Anyways, too much blathering. Don't knock cars with touchscreens and automation until you give them a fair try. You may be surprised.
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:01 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
as someone who does QA in tech, I've always wondered what QA looks like at Tesla
it's already so gd hard to get my company to do UAT, performance testing, and to do testing in prod on a very limited basis - it's like every other day that some change that wasn't given enough time for full regression testing gets rolled out that leads to sitewide issues, sometimes straight up outages that results in everyone else in the company not being able to release even flagged changes, users having a terrible experience, and a bunch of devops folks getting yet another ulcer from all the scrambling to figure out wth is happening and needs to be specifically rolled back/restarted/restored/etc
and this is, afaik, normal practice for pretty much any kind of software these days that runs on the bi-weekly agile cadence with these issues being amplified for companies that are 'shift-left' ie that have gotten rid of their QA by making devs do the testing that is never as thorough or as skeptical as having a dedicated QA person
trying to imagine how you would regression test Tesla auto-pilot on this fast-release cadence is just ridiculous to me. like how could it be possible that you could test for every driving scenario under the sun? how much of it is just purely simulation? how much of it happens in the real world? once you actually get into QA you realize that you have to somehow account for the literal millions of ways that users can mess around with the thousands of variables available (eg two major OS's, dozens of different versions of those OS's with dozens more different updates, five different major browsers, each one of these operating on different updates themselves with thousands of various extensions, different kinds of network configs, impossibly large variations in other software managing the same data sets, etc), you realize how totally impossible it is to account for every possible situation
and when it comes to software that, say, manages your todo list that's fine because it's a fucking todo list. user comes in with a bug, you document it, you fix it later if a lot of users come in with the bug or else it disappears into the void that is your backlog and becomes part of that ineffable beast known as tech debt
but for software piloting tons of steel at high speeds? how do you account for the infinite configurations of environmental variables? of driving patterns? of sights, sounds, temperature, lighting? the fact that all these sensors have to be connected together? that all these sensors will degrade over time? what happens if you roll out a change that totally fucks something irreparably? and how do you get all that accounted for on a bi-weekly or however long cadence of software release and have it all thoroughly tested to the standard that it should be tested at ie the gold standard that medicine or other things involving human lives on a mass scale is held to?
and to that last point, I guess you don't - not in a country where we accept for a fact that 2 million people are injured in auto accidents every year, that we fear being struck by lightening more than being involved in a car crash. the vaunted 'rationality' that is technolibertarianism - it makes no fucking sense to me, tbh
posted by paimapi at 9:03 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
it's already so gd hard to get my company to do UAT, performance testing, and to do testing in prod on a very limited basis - it's like every other day that some change that wasn't given enough time for full regression testing gets rolled out that leads to sitewide issues, sometimes straight up outages that results in everyone else in the company not being able to release even flagged changes, users having a terrible experience, and a bunch of devops folks getting yet another ulcer from all the scrambling to figure out wth is happening and needs to be specifically rolled back/restarted/restored/etc
and this is, afaik, normal practice for pretty much any kind of software these days that runs on the bi-weekly agile cadence with these issues being amplified for companies that are 'shift-left' ie that have gotten rid of their QA by making devs do the testing that is never as thorough or as skeptical as having a dedicated QA person
trying to imagine how you would regression test Tesla auto-pilot on this fast-release cadence is just ridiculous to me. like how could it be possible that you could test for every driving scenario under the sun? how much of it is just purely simulation? how much of it happens in the real world? once you actually get into QA you realize that you have to somehow account for the literal millions of ways that users can mess around with the thousands of variables available (eg two major OS's, dozens of different versions of those OS's with dozens more different updates, five different major browsers, each one of these operating on different updates themselves with thousands of various extensions, different kinds of network configs, impossibly large variations in other software managing the same data sets, etc), you realize how totally impossible it is to account for every possible situation
and when it comes to software that, say, manages your todo list that's fine because it's a fucking todo list. user comes in with a bug, you document it, you fix it later if a lot of users come in with the bug or else it disappears into the void that is your backlog and becomes part of that ineffable beast known as tech debt
but for software piloting tons of steel at high speeds? how do you account for the infinite configurations of environmental variables? of driving patterns? of sights, sounds, temperature, lighting? the fact that all these sensors have to be connected together? that all these sensors will degrade over time? what happens if you roll out a change that totally fucks something irreparably? and how do you get all that accounted for on a bi-weekly or however long cadence of software release and have it all thoroughly tested to the standard that it should be tested at ie the gold standard that medicine or other things involving human lives on a mass scale is held to?
and to that last point, I guess you don't - not in a country where we accept for a fact that 2 million people are injured in auto accidents every year, that we fear being struck by lightening more than being involved in a car crash. the vaunted 'rationality' that is technolibertarianism - it makes no fucking sense to me, tbh
posted by paimapi at 9:03 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
as someone who does QA in tech
you deserve recognition for extreme valour in the face of insuperable odds.
Thank you for your service.
posted by flabdablet at 9:10 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
you deserve recognition for extreme valour in the face of insuperable odds.
Thank you for your service.
posted by flabdablet at 9:10 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
After the first, say, DOZEN dangerous incidents, wouldn't you just get a new car? Particularly if you have Wozniak money?
His tolerance for fiddly tech must be pretty high. Besides Tesla is constantly blowing smoke about issues being addressed Real Soon Now and at the time there wasn't really a competitor to the Model S. Be easy to convince yourself it'll stop being an issue any day now.
that NEST's 'innovation' was they would turn your temperature down because most units beforehand were 'set a temp and forget about it'.
Set back thermostats were mandated in new construction in Canada before Nest came out, they've been around a long time. Nest's "innovation" was it's learning mode. But it is also a warning directly applicable to automotive systems as they are going to be defeatured next year when Google stops supporting the original version.
posted by Mitheral at 9:17 AM on May 8, 2023
His tolerance for fiddly tech must be pretty high. Besides Tesla is constantly blowing smoke about issues being addressed Real Soon Now and at the time there wasn't really a competitor to the Model S. Be easy to convince yourself it'll stop being an issue any day now.
that NEST's 'innovation' was they would turn your temperature down because most units beforehand were 'set a temp and forget about it'.
Set back thermostats were mandated in new construction in Canada before Nest came out, they've been around a long time. Nest's "innovation" was it's learning mode. But it is also a warning directly applicable to automotive systems as they are going to be defeatured next year when Google stops supporting the original version.
posted by Mitheral at 9:17 AM on May 8, 2023
I don't recall AC systems in Europe -do you get that kind of control, ie 22.5 C or just 22 ,or 23?
I'm in Canada, but all of the metric temperature controls I've used have 0.5°C increments.
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:21 AM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm in Canada, but all of the metric temperature controls I've used have 0.5°C increments.
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:21 AM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
RE automotive HVAC. My problem with set point HVAC controls is I don't much care what the interior temperature is within a pretty broad range. What I care about is the temperature of the air coming out of the vents which I have working whenever I'm driving. Setpoint systems are by design terrible at managing that whereas conventional fan, temperature, and mixer analogue controls make it easy.
posted by Mitheral at 9:21 AM on May 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Mitheral at 9:21 AM on May 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
Nest's "innovation" was it's learning mode.
And figuring out that some people have no idea how incredibly simple their daily routines are to the point where they'll pay extra for a "learning mode" that will ultimately come up with the same schedule they could've programming into a $20 7-day setback thermostat.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 10:08 AM on May 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
And figuring out that some people have no idea how incredibly simple their daily routines are to the point where they'll pay extra for a "learning mode" that will ultimately come up with the same schedule they could've programming into a $20 7-day setback thermostat.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 10:08 AM on May 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
Set back thermostats were mandated in new construction in Canada before Nest came out, they've been around a long time.
Ok, yeah, they existed but they were hard to program. I was exaggerating a bit to make a point. And programmable thermostats are still not particularly common, as only 40% of households with ACs have one, and less than 1/3 of those have anything other than the default program they come with.
posted by The_Vegetables at 10:13 AM on May 8, 2023
Ok, yeah, they existed but they were hard to program. I was exaggerating a bit to make a point. And programmable thermostats are still not particularly common, as only 40% of households with ACs have one, and less than 1/3 of those have anything other than the default program they come with.
posted by The_Vegetables at 10:13 AM on May 8, 2023
My daily driver is a 3 year old Subaru with its version of d advanced cruise control “EyeSight”. It automatically stays in the lane and if you set the speed and adjust the following distance to you desired comfort you can basically set it and go. The software is intuitive and easy to use and works with me as a driver.
I’ve rented Teslas on several trips. Tesla’s cruise control feature is horrible by comparison. First of all the user interface is entirely unintuitive and different for the sake of being different. Every other car has a set, speed adjust and resume switch on the steering wheel that is clearly labeled. Instead Tesla forces you to pull down on the right lever you use for forward park and reverse.
In the Subaru if you change lanes or adjust the auto- steer resumes automatically; and does not disable the speed control unless you hit the brakes, in the Tesla if you steer the wheel even slightly as you head into a sharper curve it turns the whole system off. This autopilot feature seems to be designed actively encourage you to take your hands off the wheel and be a passenger.
In the Subaru the cameras are behind the windshield. If it is raining or misting and your wipers can handle it the system will remain active as long as visibility is reasonable. In the Tesla most of the cameras are elsewhere and there are no wipers, a bit of road spray or light mist and the cruise control/ autopilot can’t activate or randomly deactivated for the remainder of the drive.
Every time I rent a Tesla I expect they will have improved some of these terrible features and yet they never do.
posted by interogative mood at 10:24 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
I’ve rented Teslas on several trips. Tesla’s cruise control feature is horrible by comparison. First of all the user interface is entirely unintuitive and different for the sake of being different. Every other car has a set, speed adjust and resume switch on the steering wheel that is clearly labeled. Instead Tesla forces you to pull down on the right lever you use for forward park and reverse.
In the Subaru if you change lanes or adjust the auto- steer resumes automatically; and does not disable the speed control unless you hit the brakes, in the Tesla if you steer the wheel even slightly as you head into a sharper curve it turns the whole system off. This autopilot feature seems to be designed actively encourage you to take your hands off the wheel and be a passenger.
In the Subaru the cameras are behind the windshield. If it is raining or misting and your wipers can handle it the system will remain active as long as visibility is reasonable. In the Tesla most of the cameras are elsewhere and there are no wipers, a bit of road spray or light mist and the cruise control/ autopilot can’t activate or randomly deactivated for the remainder of the drive.
Every time I rent a Tesla I expect they will have improved some of these terrible features and yet they never do.
posted by interogative mood at 10:24 AM on May 8, 2023 [5 favorites]
I'm in Canada, but all of the metric temperature controls I've used have 0.5°C increments.
Can confirm from Australia for car systems. My home mini-splits, though, are 1°.
posted by flabdablet at 10:43 AM on May 8, 2023
Can confirm from Australia for car systems. My home mini-splits, though, are 1°.
posted by flabdablet at 10:43 AM on May 8, 2023
The newest EyeSight uses stereo cameras vs. Tesla's monocular camera, which is why I went hmmm when Musk claimed they didn't need radar anymore (surprise, it was not true). I would guess the stereo cameras reduce false positives of emergency braking, since parallax works best when objects are close.
I too have found the lane-keeping camera (Nissan) works fine in the rain. The system is disabled if your wipers are set on high, but not on low, which is kind of a moral hazard.
I still like radar because it has superhuman ability to judge speed and distance, and it works in the fog. Though in the long run I think combining both might give better ability to judge when cars are entering/leaving your lane, slow down for brake lights and stop lights, etc.
posted by credulous at 11:00 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I too have found the lane-keeping camera (Nissan) works fine in the rain. The system is disabled if your wipers are set on high, but not on low, which is kind of a moral hazard.
I still like radar because it has superhuman ability to judge speed and distance, and it works in the fog. Though in the long run I think combining both might give better ability to judge when cars are entering/leaving your lane, slow down for brake lights and stop lights, etc.
posted by credulous at 11:00 AM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
if($speed>20mph)
Why did the deployment of self-driving cars go from not-existing-at-all to can-drive-in-all-circumstances?
Why didn't we start off with cars that could drive autonomously but only at speeds less than 20mph, i.e. stop and go traffic? Lots of people would still pay for a car that could drive itself in stop and go traffic, and from a engineering point of view, stop and go traffic is a much more constrained problem to solve where interactions happen much slower and the penalty for screwing up is more likely to result in a fender-bender rather than a body bag.
Why instead of a sensible, limited deployment of unproven technology did we go right to the promise of full self driving?
I know the answer is that Musk is a reckless fool who takes advantage of anemic government regulations and legions of deluded followers, but as someone who frequently sits idling in traffic moving only 20 feet at a time, I could have actually been interested in a car that could only drive itself under these circumstances.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:28 PM on May 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
Why did the deployment of self-driving cars go from not-existing-at-all to can-drive-in-all-circumstances?
Why didn't we start off with cars that could drive autonomously but only at speeds less than 20mph, i.e. stop and go traffic? Lots of people would still pay for a car that could drive itself in stop and go traffic, and from a engineering point of view, stop and go traffic is a much more constrained problem to solve where interactions happen much slower and the penalty for screwing up is more likely to result in a fender-bender rather than a body bag.
Why instead of a sensible, limited deployment of unproven technology did we go right to the promise of full self driving?
I know the answer is that Musk is a reckless fool who takes advantage of anemic government regulations and legions of deluded followers, but as someone who frequently sits idling in traffic moving only 20 feet at a time, I could have actually been interested in a car that could only drive itself under these circumstances.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:28 PM on May 8, 2023 [4 favorites]
Partially because driving at freeway speeds, presumably at least on a highway if not a freeway, is the easy mode of self driving. Freeways especially don't have any pedestrians, cyclists (for the most part), cross traffic or even on coming traffic (again mostly). Driving that at 100 is simple compared to city streets at 50.
posted by Mitheral at 12:42 PM on May 8, 2023
posted by Mitheral at 12:42 PM on May 8, 2023
Oh of course. But I imagine being stuck on I-93 south making 5mph through Somerville heading towards the Zakim Bridge at rush hour is even easier. And everything (lane changes, merges, etc) is happening in slow motion, so there's plenty of time to figure things out and alert the driver to take action if needed. The limited access highway means there's no pedestrians and even if there were one there's plenty of time to react when you're only moving one car length at a time. And I'm sure a car that can take care of itself from Mystic Valley Parkway all the way to South Bay would still be worth buying for lots of people, even if it couldn't self drive anywhere else.
And if I'm not mistaken, Tesla's autopilot isn't and hasn't ever been locked to freeways even though as you say that's a easier problem than navigating local roads, so it's not like they've ever cared about making sure the technology is used only in situations where it's least likely to fail.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:56 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
And if I'm not mistaken, Tesla's autopilot isn't and hasn't ever been locked to freeways even though as you say that's a easier problem than navigating local roads, so it's not like they've ever cared about making sure the technology is used only in situations where it's least likely to fail.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 12:56 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've always wondered what QA looks like at Tesla
I imagine the drivers and any vehicles surrounding a given Tesla are QA, to the extent that Tesla cars are constantly recording and transmitting telemetry of various forms up to headquarters, no? It's probably even part of the ToS.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:09 PM on May 8, 2023
I imagine the drivers and any vehicles surrounding a given Tesla are QA, to the extent that Tesla cars are constantly recording and transmitting telemetry of various forms up to headquarters, no? It's probably even part of the ToS.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:09 PM on May 8, 2023
I still worry about the longevity of all those computer systems, but there is not much I can do about that, and I have no romantic notions about old cars.
Yeah, I keep thinking about how cars today are engineered to be worry-free for the first lease period, then provide a revenue stream for the service department afterwards.
I'm in an 08 Outback, the controls are still analog, and now I am dreading replacing it.
posted by mikelieman at 2:13 PM on May 8, 2023
Yeah, I keep thinking about how cars today are engineered to be worry-free for the first lease period, then provide a revenue stream for the service department afterwards.
I'm in an 08 Outback, the controls are still analog, and now I am dreading replacing it.
posted by mikelieman at 2:13 PM on May 8, 2023
US senators call Tesla’s safety review a “sham,” demand answers from Musk - Senators accuse Tesla of hiding “untold number” of complaints.
posted by Artw at 2:42 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 2:42 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
I'm in an 08 Outback, the controls are still analog, and now I am dreading replacing it.
When I met Mr. hippybear 30 years ago he was driving a 15 year old Outback wagon. About 5 years into our relationship he replaced it with a new Outback wagon. Just a few years ago he replaced that with a new Outback wagon and declared it was probably the last Outback wagon he would buy. That's because he's planning on his car outliving him at this point.
We obviously don't have any longevity or reliability statistics on wagons from 5 or 6 years ago, but given Subaru's track record with this line of vehicles, I don't see any reason to believe this is not going to end up being true.
posted by hippybear at 2:51 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
When I met Mr. hippybear 30 years ago he was driving a 15 year old Outback wagon. About 5 years into our relationship he replaced it with a new Outback wagon. Just a few years ago he replaced that with a new Outback wagon and declared it was probably the last Outback wagon he would buy. That's because he's planning on his car outliving him at this point.
We obviously don't have any longevity or reliability statistics on wagons from 5 or 6 years ago, but given Subaru's track record with this line of vehicles, I don't see any reason to believe this is not going to end up being true.
posted by hippybear at 2:51 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
When I bought my Subaru before the pandemic I bought an add on to the warranty that covers the EyeSight stuff for ten years. I’m probably a sucker for the packages dealers sell, but so far so good.
The automatic lane following and the adaptive cruise control are a huge upgrade to the driving experience over traditional cruise control. It does a good job of keeping the right follow distance and speed in stop and go traffic. I even use it in non-highway driving on major roads since does a lot better job of maximizing the fuel economy of the car in stop and go traffic than I can by myself.
posted by interogative mood at 3:19 PM on May 8, 2023
The automatic lane following and the adaptive cruise control are a huge upgrade to the driving experience over traditional cruise control. It does a good job of keeping the right follow distance and speed in stop and go traffic. I even use it in non-highway driving on major roads since does a lot better job of maximizing the fuel economy of the car in stop and go traffic than I can by myself.
posted by interogative mood at 3:19 PM on May 8, 2023
Why didn't we start off with cars that could drive autonomously but only at speeds less than 20mph, i.e. stop and go traffic?
Mercedes' Drive Pilot currently only works below 40 mph and on mapped highways in Nevada. This is what you get when you decide to follow regulations, and is it really that compelling? Now you have five discrete driving modes to worry about -- unassisted, lane and/or speed keeping assist, and eyes-free autonomous congested freeway driving.
It doesn't help that automakers still haven't settled on standard terminology for all this stuff. Many of my friends and family don't even know they have this tech in their car, and I don't even know the right language to use to discuss it with them.
posted by credulous at 3:24 PM on May 8, 2023
Mercedes' Drive Pilot currently only works below 40 mph and on mapped highways in Nevada. This is what you get when you decide to follow regulations, and is it really that compelling? Now you have five discrete driving modes to worry about -- unassisted, lane and/or speed keeping assist, and eyes-free autonomous congested freeway driving.
It doesn't help that automakers still haven't settled on standard terminology for all this stuff. Many of my friends and family don't even know they have this tech in their car, and I don't even know the right language to use to discuss it with them.
posted by credulous at 3:24 PM on May 8, 2023
It's interesting how different those following distance cruise controls can be, however. I don't own a car with one, but I have rented a couple with that feature recently. They were VASTLY different in operation.
One car, the one I preferred, would basically "take it's foot off the gas" if someone merged into my following space, allowing a smooth deceleration and then resuming with a comfortable distance.
The other car, however, would AGGRESSIVELY BRAKE if someone merged into that following space, and then IMMEDIATELY ACCELERATE after the distance was achieved, making for a herky-jerky ride experience that was both unsettling and frustrating.
posted by hippybear at 3:27 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
One car, the one I preferred, would basically "take it's foot off the gas" if someone merged into my following space, allowing a smooth deceleration and then resuming with a comfortable distance.
The other car, however, would AGGRESSIVELY BRAKE if someone merged into that following space, and then IMMEDIATELY ACCELERATE after the distance was achieved, making for a herky-jerky ride experience that was both unsettling and frustrating.
posted by hippybear at 3:27 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Good job everyone’s been working overtime for four decades to kill all public transport.
Four decades? Try ten decades.
posted by rhymedirective at 4:37 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Four decades? Try ten decades.
posted by rhymedirective at 4:37 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
In my experience most of the distance controls have a feature that lets you set the following distance and if it is accelerating or braking to hard you can adjust the distance to get a more comfortable ride. Of course it should just default to pleasant.
posted by interogative mood at 6:39 PM on May 8, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 6:39 PM on May 8, 2023
Do these following features adjust the distance based on speed? I have noticed that tailgating at highway speeds seems to be getting worse around where I live. I assumed it was a failure to learn or understand the 2- or 3-second following “distance” rule, but maybe the cars themselves aren’t helping?
posted by eviemath at 6:57 PM on May 8, 2023
posted by eviemath at 6:57 PM on May 8, 2023
The drivers I encounter tailgating (in the leftmost lane) don't appear to need any assistance being unsafe jerks.
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 7:09 PM on May 8, 2023
posted by Insert Clever Name Here at 7:09 PM on May 8, 2023
In my experience most of the distance controls have a feature that lets you set the following distance and if it is accelerating or braking to hard you can adjust the distance to get a more comfortable ride. Of course it should just default to pleasant.
Rental cars = I'm not spending a lot of time fiddling with the settings.
Maybe a renter before me twiddled the settings in some way. I have no idea. I just drive the thing, and hope it as basic enough controls for me to get from A to B without dying. Anything extra I can discover in the process is a bonus.
posted by hippybear at 7:10 PM on May 8, 2023
Rental cars = I'm not spending a lot of time fiddling with the settings.
Maybe a renter before me twiddled the settings in some way. I have no idea. I just drive the thing, and hope it as basic enough controls for me to get from A to B without dying. Anything extra I can discover in the process is a bonus.
posted by hippybear at 7:10 PM on May 8, 2023
tailgating at highway speeds...the 2- or 3-second following “distance” rule
This is an unsafe distance for following at highway speeds. It works for in town speeds of 35-40mph, but if you're at highway speeds, you've got to be at least at 5 seconds, 7-10 is better/best.
Although, being on the highway in an urban area, good luck engineering that kind of distance between yourself and the car ahead of you.
posted by hippybear at 7:13 PM on May 8, 2023
This is an unsafe distance for following at highway speeds. It works for in town speeds of 35-40mph, but if you're at highway speeds, you've got to be at least at 5 seconds, 7-10 is better/best.
Although, being on the highway in an urban area, good luck engineering that kind of distance between yourself and the car ahead of you.
posted by hippybear at 7:13 PM on May 8, 2023
I don't know any adaptive cruise systems that let you tailgate -- maybe Tesla. My Nissan doesn't have a setting closer than 3-4 car lengths, although if someone cuts you off (which happens all the time) it might tailgate them temporarily until it activates the disintegration ray -- I mean, until the gap widens.
posted by credulous at 7:18 PM on May 8, 2023
posted by credulous at 7:18 PM on May 8, 2023
I've always wondered what QA looks like at Tesla
I read and reread Artw’s post from the early days.
previously
threadreaderapp
posted by bendy at 8:12 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I read and reread Artw’s post from the early days.
previously
threadreaderapp
posted by bendy at 8:12 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I don't know any adaptive cruise systems that let you tailgate
My 2018 Honda Accord's adaptive cruise control has 3 or 4 "following" distances that the driver controls, The actual distance varies by speed although I don't use it because I don't do a lot of driving conducive to the feature. Auto-steering at highway speeds is pretty fantastic. You need to keep your hands on the wheel otherwise it will complain but it is such a niceness.
posted by mmascolino at 8:17 PM on May 8, 2023
My 2018 Honda Accord's adaptive cruise control has 3 or 4 "following" distances that the driver controls, The actual distance varies by speed although I don't use it because I don't do a lot of driving conducive to the feature. Auto-steering at highway speeds is pretty fantastic. You need to keep your hands on the wheel otherwise it will complain but it is such a niceness.
posted by mmascolino at 8:17 PM on May 8, 2023
This is an unsafe distance for following at highway speeds. It works for in town speeds of 35-40mph, but if you're at highway speeds, you've got to be at least at 5 seconds, 7-10 is better/best.
Do you have a source for this? Because Wikipedia seems to suggest that there isn't anyone out there calling for anything beyond 3 seconds (and that's as a universal, not specifically for highway speeds). Ten seconds at highway speeds would be like 300m+ following distance, which seems excessive.
posted by Dysk at 8:53 PM on May 8, 2023
Do you have a source for this? Because Wikipedia seems to suggest that there isn't anyone out there calling for anything beyond 3 seconds (and that's as a universal, not specifically for highway speeds). Ten seconds at highway speeds would be like 300m+ following distance, which seems excessive.
posted by Dysk at 8:53 PM on May 8, 2023
I have a 2012 basic compact car and just hearing about all this automation makes me never want to buy a car again. No touch screen. I got knobs. There is no smart cruise control. There is no staying in the lane. After working from home for three years I'm seriously thinking about just not buying a car again after this one gives out. Backup cameras are nice but every other feature being offered isn't an improvement.
posted by downtohisturtles at 9:00 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by downtohisturtles at 9:00 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Three seconds at highway speeds is 2/3 of a football field. If you're moving forward at 60 mph, you have that amount of time to react if something happens in front of you that far ahead of you. Want to be safe? Give yourself more time. You have to account for your own potential for distraction, maybe sneezing or a/c controls or kids in the back seat, when figuring in your following distance.
My source for this is 15 years spent as a professional delivery driver in a lot of various capacities and having never been in a moving vehicle accident myself but having seen more things than many can imagine.
posted by hippybear at 9:15 PM on May 8, 2023
My source for this is 15 years spent as a professional delivery driver in a lot of various capacities and having never been in a moving vehicle accident myself but having seen more things than many can imagine.
posted by hippybear at 9:15 PM on May 8, 2023
Not being from the US, I don't really do football fields as a unit. 70mph x 3s is nearly a hundred meters. Which is grand, but isn't the over 300 meters of the 10s outer bound you suggested.
I'm all for safe following distances, but beyond 3 seconds just isn't reasonable on motorway systems that have meaningful traffic.
posted by Dysk at 9:21 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm all for safe following distances, but beyond 3 seconds just isn't reasonable on motorway systems that have meaningful traffic.
posted by Dysk at 9:21 PM on May 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
There was a period of time when I was regularly driving for about two hours on the highway. The car had only basic "maintain this speed" cruise control, no distance keeping. What I did sometimes when I didn't want to bother was get in the slow lane, set my cruise control to slightly below the speed limit, and then enjoy all the distance I needed as the rest of traffic flowed around me for the next couple hours. I found this to be a relatively relaxing way to drive.
posted by vibratory manner of working at 10:01 PM on May 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by vibratory manner of working at 10:01 PM on May 8, 2023 [3 favorites]
Mod note: Several deleted. Repeatedly insulting other members, making unsupported accusations about other commenters' driving behavior, derailing the discussion to make it personal about other members. It's totally fine to discuss the Tesla aspects you like and appreciate; you don't need to attack other participants to do that.
posted by taz (staff) at 11:31 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 11:31 PM on May 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
What I did sometimes when I didn't want to bother was get in the slow lane, set my cruise control to slightly below the speed limit, and then enjoy all the distance I needed as the rest of traffic flowed around me for the next couple hours. I found this to be a relatively relaxing way to drive.
Circumnavigating Australia in an old Kombi taught me that driving at 80km/h, rather than at the 100km/h speed limit let alone the customary outback scofflaw 130+, has numerous benefits.
Fuel consumption is disproportionately lower. Surprising obstacles present themselves much less suddenly. Total refusal to participate in the Stay Ahead game does indeed make for very relaxing driving. But the thing that surprised me most is that at 80km/h, bugs can get out of the way. We'd regularly roll into camp sites and park amongst other people's cars with windscreens and headlights heavily coated in insect roadkill, while ours remained almost completely untouched.
posted by flabdablet at 1:12 AM on May 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
Circumnavigating Australia in an old Kombi taught me that driving at 80km/h, rather than at the 100km/h speed limit let alone the customary outback scofflaw 130+, has numerous benefits.
Fuel consumption is disproportionately lower. Surprising obstacles present themselves much less suddenly. Total refusal to participate in the Stay Ahead game does indeed make for very relaxing driving. But the thing that surprised me most is that at 80km/h, bugs can get out of the way. We'd regularly roll into camp sites and park amongst other people's cars with windscreens and headlights heavily coated in insect roadkill, while ours remained almost completely untouched.
posted by flabdablet at 1:12 AM on May 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
Answering my question about whether distance keeping systems are set based on time or based on distance with a reply based on car-length distance implies that the answer to my question is a no, then?
It seems to me that any distance keeping system that sets itself based on a distance rule instead of a following time rule will either provide an unsafe following distance at higher speeds or an infeasible following distance at in-town speeds that will encourage drivers to not use it. One that has several possible distance-based settings that a driver can choose from will also lead to tailgating, because a significant proportion of drivers (in my experience) don’t know how to determine a safe following distance. Or to adjust for their vehicle mass (the 2-3 second guideline being for historical average-sized cars) or road and weather conditions.
(Related pet peeve: fewer and fewer drivers seem to know the previously-universal ‘tapping the brakes a couple times in quick succession’ signal to the car behind you that they are following too close and that you would like to request - without trying to be a complete jerk about it or compounding an unsafe driving situation by slowing down to a speed at which their following distance is safe or something - that they back off a bit.)
posted by eviemath at 4:08 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
It seems to me that any distance keeping system that sets itself based on a distance rule instead of a following time rule will either provide an unsafe following distance at higher speeds or an infeasible following distance at in-town speeds that will encourage drivers to not use it. One that has several possible distance-based settings that a driver can choose from will also lead to tailgating, because a significant proportion of drivers (in my experience) don’t know how to determine a safe following distance. Or to adjust for their vehicle mass (the 2-3 second guideline being for historical average-sized cars) or road and weather conditions.
(Related pet peeve: fewer and fewer drivers seem to know the previously-universal ‘tapping the brakes a couple times in quick succession’ signal to the car behind you that they are following too close and that you would like to request - without trying to be a complete jerk about it or compounding an unsafe driving situation by slowing down to a speed at which their following distance is safe or something - that they back off a bit.)
posted by eviemath at 4:08 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Web search indicates that the current average North American vehicle length is 14.7 feet (about 4.6 m). Doing the conversion for (North American) highway speeds:
2 seconds * (1 hour / 3600 seconds) * (70 miles / hour travelling speed) * (5280 feet / mile) * (1 average car length / 14.7 feet) approx= 14 car lengths
2 second * (1 hour / 3600 seconds) * (110 km / hour) * (1000 m / km) * (1 average car length / 4.6 m) approx= 13 car lengths
posted by eviemath at 4:22 AM on May 9, 2023
2 seconds * (1 hour / 3600 seconds) * (70 miles / hour travelling speed) * (5280 feet / mile) * (1 average car length / 14.7 feet) approx= 14 car lengths
2 second * (1 hour / 3600 seconds) * (110 km / hour) * (1000 m / km) * (1 average car length / 4.6 m) approx= 13 car lengths
posted by eviemath at 4:22 AM on May 9, 2023
Going backwards:
4 car lengths * (14.7 feet / car length) * (1 mile / 5280 ft) * (1 hour / 70 miles) * (3600 s / 1 hr) approx= 0.6 seconds
4 car lengths * (4.6 m / car length) * (1 km / 1000 m) * (1 hour / 110 km) * (3600 s / hr) approx= 0.6 seconds
posted by eviemath at 4:28 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
4 car lengths * (14.7 feet / car length) * (1 mile / 5280 ft) * (1 hour / 70 miles) * (3600 s / 1 hr) approx= 0.6 seconds
4 car lengths * (4.6 m / car length) * (1 km / 1000 m) * (1 hour / 110 km) * (3600 s / hr) approx= 0.6 seconds
posted by eviemath at 4:28 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Study measures how fast humans react to road hazards: In “semiautonomous” cars, older drivers may need more time to take the wheel when responding to the unexpected.
Wolfe thinks that’s concerning for autonomous vehicles, since they may not give humans adequate time to respond, especially under panic conditions. Other studies, for instance, have found that it takes people who are driving normally, with their eyes on the road, about 1.5 seconds to physically avoid road hazards, starting from initial detection.posted by eviemath at 4:37 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Driverless cars will already require a couple hundred milliseconds to alert a driver to a hazard, Wolfe says. “That already bites into the 1.5 seconds,” he says. “If you look up from your phone, it may take an additional few hundred milliseconds to move your eyes and head. That doesn’t even get into time it’ll take to reassert control and brake or steer. Then, it starts to get really worrying.”
Dense cities, electric buses, high speed trains, bikes, trikes, trams - these are the only way forward.
This view ignores what happens when the power goes out.
What's the plan for the pumping of potable water and the processing of the dirtied potable water?
This view ignores how agricultural products will get to market at the low prices the dense city folks are used to.
What's the plan here to maintain the roads to the farms/forests? Getting the labor to the harvest locations?
posted by rough ashlar at 5:00 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
This view ignores what happens when the power goes out.
What's the plan for the pumping of potable water and the processing of the dirtied potable water?
This view ignores how agricultural products will get to market at the low prices the dense city folks are used to.
What's the plan here to maintain the roads to the farms/forests? Getting the labor to the harvest locations?
posted by rough ashlar at 5:00 AM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
You can have all that without a vast fleet of largely empty SUVs circulating the streets constantly.
posted by Artw at 5:50 AM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Artw at 5:50 AM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
But the thing that surprised me most is that at 80km/h, bugs can get out of the way.
That probably speaks to the massive bow wave of pressurized air in front of the Kombi rather than bugs being able to move themselves out of the way. Also why you'd see such an outsized difference in fuel economy.
posted by Mitheral at 6:12 AM on May 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
That probably speaks to the massive bow wave of pressurized air in front of the Kombi rather than bugs being able to move themselves out of the way. Also why you'd see such an outsized difference in fuel economy.
posted by Mitheral at 6:12 AM on May 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
This view ignores what happens when the power goes out.
presumably cities have disaster management policies where-in back-up generators/gas-powered vehicles could be brought back into service vs them being in use regularly
What's the plan here to maintain the roads to the farms/forests? Getting the labor to the harvest locations?
presumably, like with everything else, some older tech will still be employed while the vast majority of people are riding in/on transit that won't create, for eg, massive refugee crises of unprecedented, billion+ people proportions that, if the very recent past is any indication of, will also lead to mass mishandling/violence/ill treatment of migrants trying to escape from inhospitable places with collapsed economies and ruined agriculture due to their climate completely changing
posted by paimapi at 7:42 AM on May 9, 2023
presumably cities have disaster management policies where-in back-up generators/gas-powered vehicles could be brought back into service vs them being in use regularly
What's the plan here to maintain the roads to the farms/forests? Getting the labor to the harvest locations?
presumably, like with everything else, some older tech will still be employed while the vast majority of people are riding in/on transit that won't create, for eg, massive refugee crises of unprecedented, billion+ people proportions that, if the very recent past is any indication of, will also lead to mass mishandling/violence/ill treatment of migrants trying to escape from inhospitable places with collapsed economies and ruined agriculture due to their climate completely changing
posted by paimapi at 7:42 AM on May 9, 2023
the massive bow wave of pressurized air in front of the Kombi
would presumably be every bit as massive in front of similarly shaped vans like the Commer or Ford Transit or Mitsubishi L300, and yet our front stayed notably less bug spattered than those of almost all of our camping acquaintances. At 100km/h the bugs apparently punch straight through that bow wave and die on the bodywork; at 80, nowhere near as many.
posted by flabdablet at 10:43 AM on May 9, 2023
would presumably be every bit as massive in front of similarly shaped vans like the Commer or Ford Transit or Mitsubishi L300, and yet our front stayed notably less bug spattered than those of almost all of our camping acquaintances. At 100km/h the bugs apparently punch straight through that bow wave and die on the bodywork; at 80, nowhere near as many.
posted by flabdablet at 10:43 AM on May 9, 2023
Circumnavigating Australia in an old Kombi taught me that driving at 80km/h, rather than at the 100km/h speed limit let alone the customary outback scofflaw 130+, has numerous benefits.
Spending lots of time traversing the highways of the Eastern half of Australia towing race boats where long distances needed to be covered and having to get there as quickly as possible has given me a low tolerance for people cruising along single-lane highways at 80 km/h. We contain multitudes, I guess. Alas, those days are now over for me just when the highways have developed to the point where there's room for both slow and fast drivers to co-exist in relative harmony. Now, I'm towing a camper instead and the Pacific Motorway is a joy, not so much the Bruce Highway which is still mostly single-lane once you leave the northern bounds of what passes for civilisation these days.
As far as bugs go, my experience is that vehicles with more vertical windscreens tend to gather much more bugs than modern cars with steeply-raked windscreens. My 1961 F-100 finishes a country drive looking like it's been dipped in bugs, while my 2018 Navara, driving on the same roads at the same time at the same speed, hardly gets any. I guess speed plays a part as well, but perhaps more in the way air flows over a specific car shape at different speeds.
posted by dg at 2:29 PM on May 9, 2023
Spending lots of time traversing the highways of the Eastern half of Australia towing race boats where long distances needed to be covered and having to get there as quickly as possible has given me a low tolerance for people cruising along single-lane highways at 80 km/h. We contain multitudes, I guess. Alas, those days are now over for me just when the highways have developed to the point where there's room for both slow and fast drivers to co-exist in relative harmony. Now, I'm towing a camper instead and the Pacific Motorway is a joy, not so much the Bruce Highway which is still mostly single-lane once you leave the northern bounds of what passes for civilisation these days.
As far as bugs go, my experience is that vehicles with more vertical windscreens tend to gather much more bugs than modern cars with steeply-raked windscreens. My 1961 F-100 finishes a country drive looking like it's been dipped in bugs, while my 2018 Navara, driving on the same roads at the same time at the same speed, hardly gets any. I guess speed plays a part as well, but perhaps more in the way air flows over a specific car shape at different speeds.
posted by dg at 2:29 PM on May 9, 2023
I cannot speak for Australia and its insect population, but in the past decade the amount of insect kills on windshields has fallen dramatically [WaPo article, archive link].
posted by hippybear at 2:41 PM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 2:41 PM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
The all touch screen fad seems to be ending as car manufacturers have realized consumers like buttons.
posted by interogative mood at 2:46 PM on May 9, 2023
posted by interogative mood at 2:46 PM on May 9, 2023
So, I just counted the buttons in my stupid Honda minivan. There are 39 buttons on the dash, most labelled in light grey on dark grey, 4 rotary knobs on the dash, another dozen buttons on the steering wheel, plus all the various controls on the two stalks.
Give me the simplicity of the touchscreen on my 2023 VW any day over that mess.
posted by fimbulvetr at 5:32 PM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Give me the simplicity of the touchscreen on my 2023 VW any day over that mess.
posted by fimbulvetr at 5:32 PM on May 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
Now imagine the Honda touchscreen solution: you still get 39 buttons and 4 sliders, only now they're all in the same place, with no haptic feedback.
If VW's touchscreen solution actually is simplicity, they could likely achieve the same with buttons (or mostly buttons) as well. If the Honda button layout is busy and complex, their touchscreen solution likely will be as well. The fundamental design challenges of making an interface are there regardless.
posted by Dysk at 11:43 PM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
If VW's touchscreen solution actually is simplicity, they could likely achieve the same with buttons (or mostly buttons) as well. If the Honda button layout is busy and complex, their touchscreen solution likely will be as well. The fundamental design challenges of making an interface are there regardless.
posted by Dysk at 11:43 PM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
people cruising along single-lane highways at 80 km/h
I know, right? And don't get me started on those fucking gangs of cyclists.
If you're not hauling at least five tons at or above the posted speed limit then you shouldn't even be on the roads that my taxes paid for.
posted by flabdablet at 11:58 PM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
I know, right? And don't get me started on those fucking gangs of cyclists.
If you're not hauling at least five tons at or above the posted speed limit then you shouldn't even be on the roads that my taxes paid for.
posted by flabdablet at 11:58 PM on May 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Now imagine the Honda touchscreen solution: you still get 39 buttons and 4 sliders, only now they're all in the same place, with no haptic feedback.
Personally, I want the controls for the items I might need to adjust for safety while driving at night in a snowstorm to be buttons/knobs that can be done mostly by touch without looking. The less important controls, like for the sound system or whatever, can be on the touchscreen. So personally, I want the main climate controls, wipers and lights, 4wd or traction control on/off, and cruise control all to be buttons/knobs. Ideally also the volume for the stereo, too, or at least a simple way to mute it.
I'm probably going to buy a new vehicle in the next couple of years, and this is already proving to be a way to filter the options.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:02 AM on May 10, 2023
Personally, I want the controls for the items I might need to adjust for safety while driving at night in a snowstorm to be buttons/knobs that can be done mostly by touch without looking. The less important controls, like for the sound system or whatever, can be on the touchscreen. So personally, I want the main climate controls, wipers and lights, 4wd or traction control on/off, and cruise control all to be buttons/knobs. Ideally also the volume for the stereo, too, or at least a simple way to mute it.
I'm probably going to buy a new vehicle in the next couple of years, and this is already proving to be a way to filter the options.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:02 AM on May 10, 2023
Why instead of a sensible, limited deployment of unproven technology did we go right to the promise of full self driving?
Because a bunch of interested parties - not least city planners and managers, were tickled pink at the prospect of seeing their biggest vehicle problems - volume, gridlock, safety, parking - all going away without them having to spend a dime on road improvements, traffic management, city planning, etc etc. And the investment money climbed aboard.
I conversed a few years back with an entrepreneur in city redevelopment and construction, and he was over the moon about this prospect. It was the Second Coming, as far as he was concerned. It would be interesting to revisit this, after a few years of reality.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:15 AM on May 10, 2023
Because a bunch of interested parties - not least city planners and managers, were tickled pink at the prospect of seeing their biggest vehicle problems - volume, gridlock, safety, parking - all going away without them having to spend a dime on road improvements, traffic management, city planning, etc etc. And the investment money climbed aboard.
I conversed a few years back with an entrepreneur in city redevelopment and construction, and he was over the moon about this prospect. It was the Second Coming, as far as he was concerned. It would be interesting to revisit this, after a few years of reality.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:15 AM on May 10, 2023
Look at all the shit cities did to try and attract the Amazon II boondoggle. Shiny promises and a slick show will get you far.
posted by Artw at 7:31 AM on May 10, 2023
posted by Artw at 7:31 AM on May 10, 2023
Personally, I want the controls for the items I might need to adjust for safety while driving at night in a snowstorm to be buttons/knobs that can be done mostly by touch without looking.
My complaint about the control system in my Honda is that it really can't be used without looking at it. All the buttons are tiny and labelled with tiny little letters and are clumped close together. Many of them are also an awkward stretch for me to reach. There are too many controls too close together, so there is no way I can reliably pick out the right one by muscle-memory. With my middle-aged eyes I have to squint to pick out which button to press, even after 10 years of owning the thing.
I find my 20-year old VW Golf to have an ideal system for muscle-memory control - three large rotary knobs for climate control, a knob for headlights, a simple radio/tape/cd player, and very few other buttons or controls on the dash and no buttons on the steering wheel. But then it doesn't have all the modern safety and convenience features that my new car has. My 2023 VW is highly automated. It also has enough controls on the steering wheel and stalks, plus a few buttons and sliders on the dash, that it is no more difficult or distracting to use than the 2004 VW. There is certainly more opportunity for distraction in the new car, like messing around with the navigation system, Apple CarPlay, Sirius satellite system, and all the myriad settings and controls that just don't exist on the older car, but that would be by my own poor choice, not poor design. I doubt there is much of a market left for a basic stripped-down car with only a radio and nothing else. If the traffic or weather is shitty, I'm not messing with any controls if I can avoid it, be it buttons-and-dials or touchscreen.
Removing all controls, even wipers and putting them only on a touchscreen like Tesla? That sounds like madness to me. But dozens of tiny little buttons is also not a great interface.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:18 AM on May 10, 2023
My complaint about the control system in my Honda is that it really can't be used without looking at it. All the buttons are tiny and labelled with tiny little letters and are clumped close together. Many of them are also an awkward stretch for me to reach. There are too many controls too close together, so there is no way I can reliably pick out the right one by muscle-memory. With my middle-aged eyes I have to squint to pick out which button to press, even after 10 years of owning the thing.
I find my 20-year old VW Golf to have an ideal system for muscle-memory control - three large rotary knobs for climate control, a knob for headlights, a simple radio/tape/cd player, and very few other buttons or controls on the dash and no buttons on the steering wheel. But then it doesn't have all the modern safety and convenience features that my new car has. My 2023 VW is highly automated. It also has enough controls on the steering wheel and stalks, plus a few buttons and sliders on the dash, that it is no more difficult or distracting to use than the 2004 VW. There is certainly more opportunity for distraction in the new car, like messing around with the navigation system, Apple CarPlay, Sirius satellite system, and all the myriad settings and controls that just don't exist on the older car, but that would be by my own poor choice, not poor design. I doubt there is much of a market left for a basic stripped-down car with only a radio and nothing else. If the traffic or weather is shitty, I'm not messing with any controls if I can avoid it, be it buttons-and-dials or touchscreen.
Removing all controls, even wipers and putting them only on a touchscreen like Tesla? That sounds like madness to me. But dozens of tiny little buttons is also not a great interface.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:18 AM on May 10, 2023
hippybear: tailgating at highway speeds...the 2- or 3-second following “distance” rule
This is an unsafe distance for following at highway speeds.
Two seconds at highway speeds isn't tailgating. The two second rule for space between vehicles works at all speeds. It provides increasing distance for increasing speeds. Reaction time -if the driver is paying attention- is fairly constant, and it's been determined that a 2+ second 'distance' behind the car you're following gives you enough time to react to the car ahead.
If a meteor strikes the car ahead and stops it instantly, well... maybe 2 seconds wasn't enough. But otherwise it's a good rule of thumb, in my experience.
If you're heavier than a car - eg towing a trailer, or driving a big truck, -the following distance should of course be greater because it will take a longer distance for you to stop the vehicle. Trucks are required by law to allow more space.
And the 2 second rule is easy-peasy to remember and apply. The car ahead passes a signpost, start counting - one steamboat, two steamboat - then you pass the same sign. Works at any speed.
Hell yes when I'm on a multi-lane expressway, I allow even more distance. I just want to set the cruise, and have enough distance to be able to make easy, slow adjustments well in advance. But when traffic is heavier, the two second rule works well.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:29 AM on May 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is an unsafe distance for following at highway speeds.
Two seconds at highway speeds isn't tailgating. The two second rule for space between vehicles works at all speeds. It provides increasing distance for increasing speeds. Reaction time -if the driver is paying attention- is fairly constant, and it's been determined that a 2+ second 'distance' behind the car you're following gives you enough time to react to the car ahead.
If a meteor strikes the car ahead and stops it instantly, well... maybe 2 seconds wasn't enough. But otherwise it's a good rule of thumb, in my experience.
If you're heavier than a car - eg towing a trailer, or driving a big truck, -the following distance should of course be greater because it will take a longer distance for you to stop the vehicle. Trucks are required by law to allow more space.
And the 2 second rule is easy-peasy to remember and apply. The car ahead passes a signpost, start counting - one steamboat, two steamboat - then you pass the same sign. Works at any speed.
Hell yes when I'm on a multi-lane expressway, I allow even more distance. I just want to set the cruise, and have enough distance to be able to make easy, slow adjustments well in advance. But when traffic is heavier, the two second rule works well.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:29 AM on May 10, 2023 [3 favorites]
snofoam: Aren’t touchscreen controls kind of a blip on the way to voice controls?
Here's a list of available voice commands in the Tesla software. (Some, like video and games, only work when the car is in park.)
Sound system volume, set speed, and follow distance are set from the thumb wheels on the steering wheel.
posted by Surely This at 9:25 AM on May 10, 2023
Here's a list of available voice commands in the Tesla software. (Some, like video and games, only work when the car is in park.)
Sound system volume, set speed, and follow distance are set from the thumb wheels on the steering wheel.
posted by Surely This at 9:25 AM on May 10, 2023
I doubt there is much of a market left for a basic stripped-down car with only a radio and nothing else.
Here's a design that strips out the radio as well in favour of a phone mount and a cup holder to put your Bluetooth speaker in.
posted by flabdablet at 9:52 AM on May 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
Here's a design that strips out the radio as well in favour of a phone mount and a cup holder to put your Bluetooth speaker in.
posted by flabdablet at 9:52 AM on May 10, 2023 [2 favorites]
presumably cities have disaster management policies where-in back-up generators/gas-powered vehicles could be brought back into service vs them being in use regularly
From the DOE
Across the country, municipal wastewater treatment plants are estimated to consume more than 30 terawatt hours per year of electricity,1 which equates to about $2 billion in annual electric costs.
From Huber
Energy Consumption of Wastewater Treatment Plants
Schaubild Kläranlage
Specific power consumption of state-of-the-art wastewater treatment plants should be between 20 and 45 kWh/(PE•a) [PE = Population Equivalent or unit per capita loading]. The lower figure applies for large plants serving > 100,000 PE, while the higher figure applies for around 10,000 PE.
Generac has a 45kW genset for $16K.
The problem for the dense city is with a CME or EMP how is more fuel going to get to the generator? Of course with the CME/EMP power outage it is unknown if the motors that pump the water and sewage will have functional controls or even functional motors.
The Sun does hit the planet with big CMEs. Eventually that will happen. If public policy has been to move the population to these dense cities how does that work once the power goes out?
With 5+ acres a person can dig an outhouse if need be. Depending on location you may have surface water or be able to access ground water with a hand pump.
posted by rough ashlar at 4:16 PM on May 11, 2023
From the DOE
Across the country, municipal wastewater treatment plants are estimated to consume more than 30 terawatt hours per year of electricity,1 which equates to about $2 billion in annual electric costs.
From Huber
Energy Consumption of Wastewater Treatment Plants
Schaubild Kläranlage
Specific power consumption of state-of-the-art wastewater treatment plants should be between 20 and 45 kWh/(PE•a) [PE = Population Equivalent or unit per capita loading]. The lower figure applies for large plants serving > 100,000 PE, while the higher figure applies for around 10,000 PE.
Generac has a 45kW genset for $16K.
The problem for the dense city is with a CME or EMP how is more fuel going to get to the generator? Of course with the CME/EMP power outage it is unknown if the motors that pump the water and sewage will have functional controls or even functional motors.
The Sun does hit the planet with big CMEs. Eventually that will happen. If public policy has been to move the population to these dense cities how does that work once the power goes out?
With 5+ acres a person can dig an outhouse if need be. Depending on location you may have surface water or be able to access ground water with a hand pump.
posted by rough ashlar at 4:16 PM on May 11, 2023
30 terawatt hours per year
How far did you go?
Oh you know, about sixty five miles per hour minutes per day.
(kWh is a stupid unit that leads people to make that kind of statement. The joule is right there.)
posted by Dysk at 9:14 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
How far did you go?
Oh you know, about sixty five miles per hour minutes per day.
(kWh is a stupid unit that leads people to make that kind of statement. The joule is right there.)
posted by Dysk at 9:14 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yeah, but you'd need to have high school physics to understand what it means. I've lost count of the number of times I've seen or heard some reporter refer to kilowatts per hour.
Is there a nice pithy word like "innumeracy" that we could use to label humanity's almost universal failure to grasp the fundamental physics that underlies almost all the technology we now so heavily rely on? I think the world needs one.
posted by flabdablet at 10:09 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Is there a nice pithy word like "innumeracy" that we could use to label humanity's almost universal failure to grasp the fundamental physics that underlies almost all the technology we now so heavily rely on? I think the world needs one.
posted by flabdablet at 10:09 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Yeah, but you'd need to have high school physics to understand what it means. I've lost count of the number of times I've seen or heard some reporter refer to kilowatts per hour.
As you point out, that's not unique to using (kilo)joules, that lack of understanding applies to kWh as well. So those of us who do understand should not be using kWh. Nobody should. It should not be a default that people reach for, because that is part of the confusion I think. People conflate kWh and kW. Harder to conflate W and J.
posted by Dysk at 10:22 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
As you point out, that's not unique to using (kilo)joules, that lack of understanding applies to kWh as well. So those of us who do understand should not be using kWh. Nobody should. It should not be a default that people reach for, because that is part of the confusion I think. People conflate kWh and kW. Harder to conflate W and J.
posted by Dysk at 10:22 PM on May 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'd agree with you if electricity was billed by the megajoule, but as far as I know it's done in kilowatt hours everywhere in the world. Moving from a unit that the general public has some vague familiarity with to one that it simply won't understand at all is unlikely to help much, I fear.
posted by flabdablet at 10:32 PM on May 11, 2023
posted by flabdablet at 10:32 PM on May 11, 2023
Yes, billing is one of the uses where I'm arguing for a move to (kilo)joules. Power distribution companies are (hopefully) in the set of people who know their units!
posted by Dysk at 2:30 AM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 2:30 AM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
Joules is just a fancy way of saying watt seconds. Personally I like Whs. It's a nice intuitive unit. Moving to Joules would entail a lot of multiplying and dividing by 60 for no good reason.
posted by Mitheral at 2:57 AM on May 12, 2023
posted by Mitheral at 2:57 AM on May 12, 2023
(kWh contra kJ is just a factor of 3.6, and kWh is the in-practice nonsense unit, not Wh. Joules are fundamentally part of the definition of the watt, not the other way round.)
posted by Dysk at 2:59 AM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 2:59 AM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
kWh contra kJ is just a factor of 3.6
That would be kWh contra MJ.
posted by flabdablet at 7:09 AM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
That would be kWh contra MJ.
posted by flabdablet at 7:09 AM on May 12, 2023 [1 favorite]
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witter!posted by TedW at 4:50 AM on May 7, 2023 [25 favorites]