El Loco Avanza
November 20, 2023 4:43 PM Subscribe
After a tumultuous campaign, Argentina has shocked the world by electing the far-right economist Javier Milei as its next president.
In an echo of previous victories by populist outsiders with weird hair, the anarcho-capitalist firebrand waged an unorthodox campaign against a ruling class beset by inflation, wielding chainsaws, leather jackets, and Trumpian fraud claims to defeat hapless economy minister Sergio Massa by a wide margin powered by younger voters.
Milei has promised to set the nation on a radical new course, dispensing with the social welfare programs of the longstanding Peronist government in order to pursue dollarization, privatization, deregulation, dismantlement of government, and anti-choice/vax/climate politics, along with an uncompromising "shock therapy" libertarianism that supports (among other things) selling organs and children.
But beyond his extreme policies, many are disturbed by Milei's, uh, eccentric personality -- from his bizarre rants about the internet and establishment leftists to his telepathic consultation with mediums, God, and a dead dog that he has since cloned and converted into his political counsel.
I am so sorry, Argentina.
posted by GenjiandProust at 5:04 PM on November 20, 2023 [26 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 5:04 PM on November 20, 2023 [26 favorites]
In my lifetime living north of the US my frame of reference is the example of the Hollywood actor that devolved into the former Head Spook that devolved into the Head Spook's failson that devolved into the trashy con artist
based on these metrics, Argentina has gone with someone who might be worse than all that (and also savvier with a younger demographic, based on the clips I watched). this fellow appears deranged in a disturbingly lucid and premeditated way, looking forward to commentary from those with real perspective.
posted by elkevelvet at 5:04 PM on November 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
based on these metrics, Argentina has gone with someone who might be worse than all that (and also savvier with a younger demographic, based on the clips I watched). this fellow appears deranged in a disturbingly lucid and premeditated way, looking forward to commentary from those with real perspective.
posted by elkevelvet at 5:04 PM on November 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
You could say he campaigned against the ruling class, or you could say that another faction of the ruling class absolutely love this shit. Telepathic dead dogs are exactly what they need right now.
posted by riddley at 5:11 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by riddley at 5:11 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Grim news for Argentina. There might be a lesson here for the rest of the world that if the alternatives are more of exactly the same and some guy who is obviously nuts, people will choose nuts over more of the same if they are unhappy enough with the current situation (and the people or Argentina are very justifiably not happy with the current situation). It's almost like we're learning, over and over, that "not as bad as the other guy" is not a winning electoral strategy in the long term.
posted by ssg at 5:15 PM on November 20, 2023 [33 favorites]
posted by ssg at 5:15 PM on November 20, 2023 [33 favorites]
Why on earth would you run, for the presidency, the economy minister who oversaw >100% (and rising!) annualized inflation?
posted by kickingtheground at 5:44 PM on November 20, 2023 [16 favorites]
posted by kickingtheground at 5:44 PM on November 20, 2023 [16 favorites]
this fellow appears deranged in a disturbingly lucid and premeditated way,
That is exactly how he looks. But like people have said above (and we have experienced here in the US), if people are unhappy and are being poorly served by the status quo, they will potentially vote for the person who promises to shake things up regardless of how deranged he is or how unlikely he is to shake things up in favor of the people who are being poorly served by the status quo.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:51 PM on November 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
That is exactly how he looks. But like people have said above (and we have experienced here in the US), if people are unhappy and are being poorly served by the status quo, they will potentially vote for the person who promises to shake things up regardless of how deranged he is or how unlikely he is to shake things up in favor of the people who are being poorly served by the status quo.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:51 PM on November 20, 2023 [8 favorites]
China Congratulates Argentina’s Milei Despite ‘Assassin’ Insult.
posted by clavdivs at 5:57 PM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 5:57 PM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
Related anecdote. I happened to be driving today around the time that All Things Considered was playing on the local NPR station. I turned it on and heard them describing this election. If that was the only news source, I would have come away thinking this was just a gentleman with some unorthodox economic views. The only things they mentioned (to be fair I turned it on mid report) were his ideas to get rid of the central bank and to switch the economy to the dollar.
They downplayed it so much I was sitting there thinking that they were amazing friendly to someone who's obviously got at least one major red flag (getting rid of a central bank is a real dumb idea), and feeling very surreal that NPR sounds so much like a corporate/right wing newspiece now.
This post just confirms my suspicions
posted by natteringnabob at 5:58 PM on November 20, 2023 [43 favorites]
They downplayed it so much I was sitting there thinking that they were amazing friendly to someone who's obviously got at least one major red flag (getting rid of a central bank is a real dumb idea), and feeling very surreal that NPR sounds so much like a corporate/right wing newspiece now.
This post just confirms my suspicions
posted by natteringnabob at 5:58 PM on November 20, 2023 [43 favorites]
Seen elsewhere: Los argentinos han decidido vengarse de su pasado condenando su futuro.
Argentinians have decided to avenge their past by condemning their future.
posted by signal at 6:06 PM on November 20, 2023 [22 favorites]
Argentinians have decided to avenge their past by condemning their future.
posted by signal at 6:06 PM on November 20, 2023 [22 favorites]
WTF:
His choice of Victoria Villarruel as his vice-presidential running mate shocked human rights campaigners in the country, in which 30,000 people were killed or forcibly disappeared under military rule from 1976 to 1983.posted by spamandkimchi at 6:07 PM on November 20, 2023 [15 favorites]
Ms Villarruel, who comes from a military family, has defended officers convicted of crimes against humanity and proposed dismantling a museum which commemorates victims of Argentina's military junta.
I bet the mood in the Falklands is pretty bleak right now.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:09 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:09 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
his claim that his deceased pet and him fought gladiatorial games in Rome in a past life seem congruently familiar.
"Following Caesar's assassination and the Roman Civil War, Augustus assumed imperial authority over the games, including munera, and formalised their provision as a civic and religious duty. His revision of sumptuary law capped private and public expenditure on munera, claiming to save the Roman elite from the bankruptcies they would otherwise suffer, and restricting gladiator munera to the festivals of Saturnalia and Quinquatria."
posted by clavdivs at 6:10 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
"Following Caesar's assassination and the Roman Civil War, Augustus assumed imperial authority over the games, including munera, and formalised their provision as a civic and religious duty. His revision of sumptuary law capped private and public expenditure on munera, claiming to save the Roman elite from the bankruptcies they would otherwise suffer, and restricting gladiator munera to the festivals of Saturnalia and Quinquatria."
posted by clavdivs at 6:10 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's possible (and hopeful) he turns out to be a complete incompetent, but if he takes the Falklands Britian is too weak to defend it.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:12 PM on November 20, 2023
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:12 PM on November 20, 2023
I’m just convinced given the last eight years or more, that mainstream media news, when confronted by a total fucking loon, is completely unable to report that this person IS a total fucking loon. Instead, they just dance around saying this and that in a completely unconfrontational way, and never deal with the reality they are looking at. Journalism has rolled over on its back. Back in the ‘70’s, given Watergate, everybody wanted to become brave investigative journalists that spoke truth, actual truth, to all the lies spread by the powers that be. Now?
posted by njohnson23 at 6:13 PM on November 20, 2023 [64 favorites]
posted by njohnson23 at 6:13 PM on November 20, 2023 [64 favorites]
So this, obviously, is hyperfucked.
The "good" news is that Milei's party and those that would work with them are still fringe, so getting most of his deranged proposed legislation unchanged through congress is unlikely; and his bloc doesn't have any mayoralities or governorships.
But still! This norm-busting insane vampire-squid libertarian demagogue can still do a lot of damage. I'm genuinely scared of his VP who seems like an absolute oldschool bloodsucker of the torture'em "school of the americas" breed.
posted by lalochezia at 6:15 PM on November 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
The "good" news is that Milei's party and those that would work with them are still fringe, so getting most of his deranged proposed legislation unchanged through congress is unlikely; and his bloc doesn't have any mayoralities or governorships.
But still! This norm-busting insane vampire-squid libertarian demagogue can still do a lot of damage. I'm genuinely scared of his VP who seems like an absolute oldschool bloodsucker of the torture'em "school of the americas" breed.
posted by lalochezia at 6:15 PM on November 20, 2023 [10 favorites]
It troubles me that so few, if any, intelligent and capable people get into politics. With the rise of social media and polarization, I see more and more loonies getting into politics because they seem to be the only people who are willing to take on the circus of governing while having their personal characters and lives dissected and diminished by the press and the public, not to mention the danger to their personal safety. Many career politicians are getting out of the game. The risk is too great for themselves and their families. The money is also not that great if you are an honest politician. At least in terms of what you would make at an IQ and capability level that a country or city would need to lead them. Essentially, we need an intelligent someone to lead a country who is willing to sacrifice their life force for others and that sort of quality is in severe short supply. Good luck, world!
posted by ichimunki at 6:21 PM on November 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by ichimunki at 6:21 PM on November 20, 2023 [11 favorites]
I bet the mood in the Falklands is pretty bleak right now.
The combat power of the Argentine military is vastly reduced from the early 80s.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:24 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
The combat power of the Argentine military is vastly reduced from the early 80s.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:24 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
I don’t think the Falklands have anything to worry about in the short term. Argentine military is a shell of what it was in 1982 and the UK has massively increased its presence in the Falklands. Argentina is broke and the economy is in shambles.
posted by interogative mood at 6:27 PM on November 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:27 PM on November 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
It's a vicious cycle--most people see politicians as serving out their time before they inevitably move into a higher paying role in advocacy for a special interest. So the only person who you can really trust is either already rich or a complete loon.
Although Milei's act is something else entirely--his dog is his son? He's telling people he's a tantric sex master? He's a cosplayer? They're going to get rid of him and make his vice president the girlboss Pinochet, no more votes!
posted by kingdead at 6:44 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Although Milei's act is something else entirely--his dog is his son? He's telling people he's a tantric sex master? He's a cosplayer? They're going to get rid of him and make his vice president the girlboss Pinochet, no more votes!
posted by kingdead at 6:44 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
I bet the mood in the Falklands is pretty bleak right now.
Given that he has declared the islands Argentinian land, they should probably be alert, at the very least.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:45 PM on November 20, 2023
Given that he has declared the islands Argentinian land, they should probably be alert, at the very least.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:45 PM on November 20, 2023
China Congratulates Argentina’s Milei Despite ‘Assassin’ Insult.
Well, of course they did. This clown show has China written all over it.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:46 PM on November 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Well, of course they did. This clown show has China written all over it.
posted by CynicalKnight at 6:46 PM on November 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
This is awful. I got introduced to Milei via Last Week Tonight, and no matter how biased they are, he's got to be at least somewhat crazy. Hopefully they get through things OK: I think it's pretty rare to be crazy and also effectively imposing your (crazy) ideas.
posted by netowl at 6:47 PM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by netowl at 6:47 PM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
Miliei is a climate-change-denying, anti-government lunatic, according to The Center for Economic and Policy Research's (CEPR) press release on his election:
“No one so extremist on economic issues has been elected president of a South American country,” says economist Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of the CEPR...
In an interview last month, Milei stated, “Every time the state intervenes, it’s a violent action that harms the right to private property and in the end, limits our freedom.”
According to Milei, this applies to trying to “fix the problem of hunger” or “fix the problem of poverty,” or employment...
“Social justice,” not just “socialism,” is “abhorrent” to Milei … “what is social justice, truly?,” Milei asks. “It’s stealing the fruits of one person’s labor and giving it to someone else... So one problem is that it violates the Ten Commandments.”
As for climate change, Milei has said, “It’s another one of the lies of socialism.” He’s also said, “There is a cycle of temperatures … a cyclical behavior … and therefore all the policies that blame humans for climate change are false.”
posted by airing nerdy laundry at 6:53 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
“No one so extremist on economic issues has been elected president of a South American country,” says economist Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of the CEPR...
In an interview last month, Milei stated, “Every time the state intervenes, it’s a violent action that harms the right to private property and in the end, limits our freedom.”
According to Milei, this applies to trying to “fix the problem of hunger” or “fix the problem of poverty,” or employment...
“Social justice,” not just “socialism,” is “abhorrent” to Milei … “what is social justice, truly?,” Milei asks. “It’s stealing the fruits of one person’s labor and giving it to someone else... So one problem is that it violates the Ten Commandments.”
As for climate change, Milei has said, “It’s another one of the lies of socialism.” He’s also said, “There is a cycle of temperatures … a cyclical behavior … and therefore all the policies that blame humans for climate change are false.”
posted by airing nerdy laundry at 6:53 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
¡Che boludos!
The Take is an inspiring documentary from 2004 about worker takeovers of factories following Argentina's economic collapse in the early 2000s. Let's hope this spirit is also still alive and well there.
The society of the spectacle continues to cartoonishly mock the silent majority; or is it the other way around?
posted by nikoniko at 7:34 PM on November 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Take is an inspiring documentary from 2004 about worker takeovers of factories following Argentina's economic collapse in the early 2000s. Let's hope this spirit is also still alive and well there.
The society of the spectacle continues to cartoonishly mock the silent majority; or is it the other way around?
posted by nikoniko at 7:34 PM on November 20, 2023 [2 favorites]
Given that he has declared the islands Argentinian land, they should probably be alert, at the very least.
If he had been elected a few years ago to wage Falklands War 2 against Prime Minister Boris Johnson while President Donald Trump had to arbitrate… battle of the hairdos
posted by Apocryphon at 7:37 PM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
If he had been elected a few years ago to wage Falklands War 2 against Prime Minister Boris Johnson while President Donald Trump had to arbitrate… battle of the hairdos
posted by Apocryphon at 7:37 PM on November 20, 2023 [1 favorite]
I think it's pretty rare to be crazy and also effectively imposing your (crazy) ideas.
Trump, Putin, Bolsonaro, a staggering number of US congress people who believe Trump is God incarnate and that humans and dinosaurs co-existed... I'm not sure what's rare about this kind of crazy imposing itself on world affairs. It kinda seems like the new normal
posted by treepour at 9:08 PM on November 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
Trump, Putin, Bolsonaro, a staggering number of US congress people who believe Trump is God incarnate and that humans and dinosaurs co-existed... I'm not sure what's rare about this kind of crazy imposing itself on world affairs. It kinda seems like the new normal
posted by treepour at 9:08 PM on November 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
Given that he has declared the islands Argentinian land, they should probably be alert, at the very least.
Think of that claim as akin to something like Republican politicians in Texas saying Texas could secede from the US if it wanted to... delusional horseshit that everyone knows is exactly that but will always get a cheer from one half of the crowd.
posted by lefty lucky cat at 9:55 PM on November 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
Think of that claim as akin to something like Republican politicians in Texas saying Texas could secede from the US if it wanted to... delusional horseshit that everyone knows is exactly that but will always get a cheer from one half of the crowd.
posted by lefty lucky cat at 9:55 PM on November 20, 2023 [4 favorites]
It kinda seems like the new normal
I’m gonna blame it on the Reagan-Thatcher one-two neoliberal populist punch that smacked the Overton window hurling to the right, where it continues to hurl on still.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:04 PM on November 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
I’m gonna blame it on the Reagan-Thatcher one-two neoliberal populist punch that smacked the Overton window hurling to the right, where it continues to hurl on still.
posted by Apocryphon at 10:04 PM on November 20, 2023 [7 favorites]
Reagan and Thatcher ran front-of-house, sure, but smacking the Overton window has long been the raison d'être of the same professional Overton window smackers who are still smacking it today. That window isn't going to hurl itself.
Overton himself was working for one of these outfits when he came up with the concept, for what that's worth.
posted by flabdablet at 10:51 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
Overton himself was working for one of these outfits when he came up with the concept, for what that's worth.
posted by flabdablet at 10:51 PM on November 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is awful. I got introduced to Milei via Last Week Tonight, and no matter how biased they are, he's got to be at least somewhat crazy.
While John Oliver is sometimes hyperbolic, and the show's style of humor doesn't appeal to some, I have never known him to be inaccurate, and I've seen every episode. His show puts in the research work. It definitely has a point of view, but I've found it to be an entirely valid one.
The things they discovered about Milei were remarkably crazy even by 2023 political standards. Not only does he own a clone of his departed pet, named Conan after it, he has three other clones of it, and claims they're like his cabinet. Part of LWT's piece of Milei got posted to Youtube--oddly, by a pro-Milei account. The clip doesn't mention his "four dog."
posted by JHarris at 10:57 PM on November 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
While John Oliver is sometimes hyperbolic, and the show's style of humor doesn't appeal to some, I have never known him to be inaccurate, and I've seen every episode. His show puts in the research work. It definitely has a point of view, but I've found it to be an entirely valid one.
The things they discovered about Milei were remarkably crazy even by 2023 political standards. Not only does he own a clone of his departed pet, named Conan after it, he has three other clones of it, and claims they're like his cabinet. Part of LWT's piece of Milei got posted to Youtube--oddly, by a pro-Milei account. The clip doesn't mention his "four dog."
posted by JHarris at 10:57 PM on November 20, 2023 [9 favorites]
So, is there anybody sufficiently literate on Argentine politics to way in on this matter:
To what degree is Milei likely to fall between being actually libertarian, Chicago school fanatic, Trumpian populist, Peronist, and authoritarian?
He's crazy- but the question is whether he's crazy as a nascent dictator, crazy as a free market fanatic (a la Liz Truss), or crazy like Boris Johnson (that is, chasing ratings and attention first).
If it's the first, Argentina is in for a bad time. If it's the second or the third, it's still going to be a bad time but it will end after a term or two.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 1:34 AM on November 21, 2023
To what degree is Milei likely to fall between being actually libertarian, Chicago school fanatic, Trumpian populist, Peronist, and authoritarian?
He's crazy- but the question is whether he's crazy as a nascent dictator, crazy as a free market fanatic (a la Liz Truss), or crazy like Boris Johnson (that is, chasing ratings and attention first).
If it's the first, Argentina is in for a bad time. If it's the second or the third, it's still going to be a bad time but it will end after a term or two.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 1:34 AM on November 21, 2023
With respect to the Falklands, not only has Argentina not re-armed since the early 1980s (that pesky hyperinflation got in the way), but the UK extended the runway at Port Stanley: it's now able to take widebody airliners like the RAF's Voyagers (modified A330s in the tanker/transport role). Consequently the logistics picture for the British military is a vastly different—the RAF can airlift an infantry battalion or stage a squadron of Typhoon IIs out there at very short notice, no need to assemble a carrier battle group and go sailing down the Atlantic.
I doubt the will to fight Falklands War 2.0 exists on either side, but failing to defend the Falklands would be a suicide note for any British government.
posted by cstross at 2:33 AM on November 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
I doubt the will to fight Falklands War 2.0 exists on either side, but failing to defend the Falklands would be a suicide note for any British government.
posted by cstross at 2:33 AM on November 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
It's possible (and hopeful) he turns out to be a complete incompetent
It's guaranteed he turns out to be a complete incompetent.
but if he takes the Falklands Britian is too weak to defend it.
The military depreciation is mutual; Argentina is too weak to attack it.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 2:48 AM on November 21, 2023
It's guaranteed he turns out to be a complete incompetent.
but if he takes the Falklands Britian is too weak to defend it.
The military depreciation is mutual; Argentina is too weak to attack it.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 2:48 AM on November 21, 2023
Why on earth would you run, for the presidency, the economy minister who oversaw >100% (and rising!) annualized inflation?
I favorited this comment because it's the only mention here that the governing party seemed to shoot themselves in the foot in this election. It sounds like either the governing party knew they were fucked and this guy drew the short straw, or he truly believed the Argentinian electorate would go for the guy who oversaw a disastrous round of inflation.
posted by fortitude25 at 3:52 AM on November 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
I favorited this comment because it's the only mention here that the governing party seemed to shoot themselves in the foot in this election. It sounds like either the governing party knew they were fucked and this guy drew the short straw, or he truly believed the Argentinian electorate would go for the guy who oversaw a disastrous round of inflation.
posted by fortitude25 at 3:52 AM on November 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
I am not Argentine, but I live here and my wife and family are Argentine.
The amount of fear, misinformation and yes, ignorance, that have been passed off as fact around this campaign is truly staggering. As much outside the country as in.
First some history.
The Peronists have ruled this country for the vast majority of the years since WW2. Recently, there was a 4 year blip when Mauricio Macri took over for 4 years of a pretty mediocre presidency.
Inflation is officially 140%, probably more really.
When I moved here the first time in 2007, the peso was 3 to the dollar. A couple of years ago it was 140, now it's about 1000. There's one real exchange rate, the blue dollar, and about a dozen others set by the government in order to steal money from exporters, importers, foreign companies etc.
40% of the population lives in poverty, probably more really.
The percentage of people working in private sector jobs is vanishingly small. Perhaps 7 or 8 million from a population of 46 million. The taxes from these people, and confiscatory rates of tax on the agricultural sector, go towards paying for the expenses of the state. What it doesn't pay for, the government prints vast amounts of pesos to make up the difference (hence inflation), and borrows money from abroad and from the IMF etc. It periodically defaults on these loans, so the government, and Argentina, is basically subsidised by developed countries who continue (bizarrely) to "lend" Argentina money (albeit at high interest rates). The Peronist governments use the IMF as a whipping boy, insisting that Argentina is a victim of "vulture capitalists".
There are vast areas of Buenos Aires (where half the population lives) where there is no work, no hope of work, no sidewalks or sewers or legal electricity or paved roads, practically no police, no functioning schools or hospitals, where crime is off the charts, where there is a growing drug problem (Massa is alleged to have ties to narcotraffickers across South America) and where three generations of argentines have relied on handouts (called plans, and the recipients "planeros") from the government to scrape by. These plans are managed by so called social organisations who are chosen by the government to distribute the money. Imagine if welfare was distributed by the Proud Boys and BLM. Corruption and vote buying is rife.
The current government has continued a tradition of financial mismanagement of breathtaking scope. Massa spent an estimated 8 billion dollars of government money on this campaign. The President, Alberto Fernandez, and his boss, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the VP, have been nowhere to be seen for the last several months.
Milei is a deeply, deeply weird man. Like, deeply. All the things about his dogs seem to be true. He has a strange relationship with his sister. He doesn't believe in climate change. His personality is...aggressive. In addition, he doesn't have anywhere close to enough people in government to make the radical changes he wants. His VP seems to be soft on the military government of the 70s (although many influential Kirchneristas were left wing terrorists, so glass houses). A lot of his ideas seem to me to be nuts. But he hasn't advocated open organ markets or trafficking of kids or closing down the school system or many other things that the fear campaign from the other side has claimed.
Buuuuuutttt....
Everything here is broken. Education, health, the economy, politics....everything. And it keeps getting worse. Many people who can, leave (thanks to those Italian grandparents, many people can get EU passports). Young people see no future here.
I think that people are finally realising that things can't just keep going on and on, that a radical change is needed. This is a country that should be rich (agriculture, oil, lithium and other minerals, fisheries and more). Do I think that Milei can fix things? Absolutely not. No way, no how.
But maybe...he can break everything so much that it has to be rebuilt from the ground up, which is what is needed. Gradualism can't work, things are too far gone. Argentina has to radically reconsider the role of the state in society, what it's job should be and what it should provide. I see Milei as the first step, necessarily difficult, along a long road to a hopefully bright future.
posted by conifer at 4:07 AM on November 21, 2023 [45 favorites]
The amount of fear, misinformation and yes, ignorance, that have been passed off as fact around this campaign is truly staggering. As much outside the country as in.
First some history.
The Peronists have ruled this country for the vast majority of the years since WW2. Recently, there was a 4 year blip when Mauricio Macri took over for 4 years of a pretty mediocre presidency.
Inflation is officially 140%, probably more really.
When I moved here the first time in 2007, the peso was 3 to the dollar. A couple of years ago it was 140, now it's about 1000. There's one real exchange rate, the blue dollar, and about a dozen others set by the government in order to steal money from exporters, importers, foreign companies etc.
40% of the population lives in poverty, probably more really.
The percentage of people working in private sector jobs is vanishingly small. Perhaps 7 or 8 million from a population of 46 million. The taxes from these people, and confiscatory rates of tax on the agricultural sector, go towards paying for the expenses of the state. What it doesn't pay for, the government prints vast amounts of pesos to make up the difference (hence inflation), and borrows money from abroad and from the IMF etc. It periodically defaults on these loans, so the government, and Argentina, is basically subsidised by developed countries who continue (bizarrely) to "lend" Argentina money (albeit at high interest rates). The Peronist governments use the IMF as a whipping boy, insisting that Argentina is a victim of "vulture capitalists".
There are vast areas of Buenos Aires (where half the population lives) where there is no work, no hope of work, no sidewalks or sewers or legal electricity or paved roads, practically no police, no functioning schools or hospitals, where crime is off the charts, where there is a growing drug problem (Massa is alleged to have ties to narcotraffickers across South America) and where three generations of argentines have relied on handouts (called plans, and the recipients "planeros") from the government to scrape by. These plans are managed by so called social organisations who are chosen by the government to distribute the money. Imagine if welfare was distributed by the Proud Boys and BLM. Corruption and vote buying is rife.
The current government has continued a tradition of financial mismanagement of breathtaking scope. Massa spent an estimated 8 billion dollars of government money on this campaign. The President, Alberto Fernandez, and his boss, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the VP, have been nowhere to be seen for the last several months.
Milei is a deeply, deeply weird man. Like, deeply. All the things about his dogs seem to be true. He has a strange relationship with his sister. He doesn't believe in climate change. His personality is...aggressive. In addition, he doesn't have anywhere close to enough people in government to make the radical changes he wants. His VP seems to be soft on the military government of the 70s (although many influential Kirchneristas were left wing terrorists, so glass houses). A lot of his ideas seem to me to be nuts. But he hasn't advocated open organ markets or trafficking of kids or closing down the school system or many other things that the fear campaign from the other side has claimed.
Buuuuuutttt....
Everything here is broken. Education, health, the economy, politics....everything. And it keeps getting worse. Many people who can, leave (thanks to those Italian grandparents, many people can get EU passports). Young people see no future here.
I think that people are finally realising that things can't just keep going on and on, that a radical change is needed. This is a country that should be rich (agriculture, oil, lithium and other minerals, fisheries and more). Do I think that Milei can fix things? Absolutely not. No way, no how.
But maybe...he can break everything so much that it has to be rebuilt from the ground up, which is what is needed. Gradualism can't work, things are too far gone. Argentina has to radically reconsider the role of the state in society, what it's job should be and what it should provide. I see Milei as the first step, necessarily difficult, along a long road to a hopefully bright future.
posted by conifer at 4:07 AM on November 21, 2023 [45 favorites]
I wish your solution worked, conifer, for the people of Argentina - I might make the same call with 140% inflation, rampant state corruption etc. etc.
. But unfortunately, the accelerationist thinking that "if we break it with different, bad, Capitalist people, we'll build something good, I promise" is a pipe dream. The act of breaking won't remove corruption, it will entrench other forms. Power abhors a vaccuum, and in a breaking system.... it's not the builders that have the strength, cunning and cruelty to come in, it's the vultures.
The radical reconsideration is this "the state is broken, so we will help the poor and dependent less, and use the delta from this allow the local and international rich to pick over their bones".
posted by lalochezia at 4:43 AM on November 21, 2023 [20 favorites]
. But unfortunately, the accelerationist thinking that "if we break it with different, bad, Capitalist people, we'll build something good, I promise" is a pipe dream. The act of breaking won't remove corruption, it will entrench other forms. Power abhors a vaccuum, and in a breaking system.... it's not the builders that have the strength, cunning and cruelty to come in, it's the vultures.
The radical reconsideration is this "the state is broken, so we will help the poor and dependent less, and use the delta from this allow the local and international rich to pick over their bones".
posted by lalochezia at 4:43 AM on November 21, 2023 [20 favorites]
Accelerationism has never worked to date; it has only ever made things worse. The only way it has “succeeded” is to kill enough people that the remnants can gather sufficient scraps to be “better off”.
Good if you’re one of the chosen survivors with the right connections or skin color, not so great for everyone else.
posted by aramaic at 4:50 AM on November 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Good if you’re one of the chosen survivors with the right connections or skin color, not so great for everyone else.
posted by aramaic at 4:50 AM on November 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
They downplayed it so much I was sitting there thinking that they were amazing friendly to someone who's obviously got at least one major red flag (getting rid of a central bank is a real dumb idea), and feeling very surreal that NPR sounds so much like a corporate/right wing newspiece now.
Reminds me of the time I popped on NPR right as the presenter said the phrase “centrist Democrat Kirsten Sinema.” I switched that shit right off and haven’t listened since.
posted by slogger at 5:08 AM on November 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
Reminds me of the time I popped on NPR right as the presenter said the phrase “centrist Democrat Kirsten Sinema.” I switched that shit right off and haven’t listened since.
posted by slogger at 5:08 AM on November 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
First some history.
I am glad someone who actually lives in Argentina has weighed in to provide some context - I disagree with the idea that accelerationism can work out in principle but for all my criticisms of my home country, it is nowhere near the state you have described in your comment:
Everything here is broken. Education, health, the economy, politics....everything. And it keeps getting worse....Young people see no future here.
And so when you put a populace in a position like this, election results like what we just saw are inevitable.
posted by fortitude25 at 5:37 AM on November 21, 2023 [7 favorites]
I am glad someone who actually lives in Argentina has weighed in to provide some context - I disagree with the idea that accelerationism can work out in principle but for all my criticisms of my home country, it is nowhere near the state you have described in your comment:
Everything here is broken. Education, health, the economy, politics....everything. And it keeps getting worse....Young people see no future here.
And so when you put a populace in a position like this, election results like what we just saw are inevitable.
posted by fortitude25 at 5:37 AM on November 21, 2023 [7 favorites]
Unfortunately it's a choice between someone who might ruin everything (Milei) and someone who will definitely ruin everything (Massa).
posted by conifer at 5:45 AM on November 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by conifer at 5:45 AM on November 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Thanks conifer, I appreciate the view from someone in the country - I was hoping someone would pop up in this thread.
I don't live in Argentina, but part of my work involves helping coordinate the business / finance / manufacturing operations in sites around the world, including those within Argentina. I started doing this particular job over a decade ago when the ARS/USD rate was 6, and like you mention, it's today 350 officially but around 1000 on the black market. I'm involved in helping negotiate, analyze, budget and sign off on large multi-year contracts - some up to 7 years in duration, and to say it's tough to write a contract in an environment with 140% inflation is an understatement!
The people I talk to regularly in Argentina in my line of work are good natured, hardworking, and precise with their work. I'm sure I don't see the worst of it, but we are generally optimistic about the economy - we're one of those companies making up the "vanishingly small" private sector, we've invested hundreds of millions of dollars in recent years and are continuing to invest more into the country.
I despair whenever I try to understand price movements in labor / commodities / overheads in Argentina, but the people there perform a miracle and make it work somehow, you all have my deepest respect. Year after year, you guys have my best wishes that you will fix things!
As for the 140% inflation, from an outsider view it was probably the best of all outcomes - going into Covid with no reserves, what would you do in that position. You put in some restrictions to slow the spread of Covid, people can't work, revenues tank, foreign money markets dry up, you need to keep hospitals and electricity running. Only thing you can do is print money and keep going, at least you survive another day.
posted by xdvesper at 5:54 AM on November 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
I don't live in Argentina, but part of my work involves helping coordinate the business / finance / manufacturing operations in sites around the world, including those within Argentina. I started doing this particular job over a decade ago when the ARS/USD rate was 6, and like you mention, it's today 350 officially but around 1000 on the black market. I'm involved in helping negotiate, analyze, budget and sign off on large multi-year contracts - some up to 7 years in duration, and to say it's tough to write a contract in an environment with 140% inflation is an understatement!
The people I talk to regularly in Argentina in my line of work are good natured, hardworking, and precise with their work. I'm sure I don't see the worst of it, but we are generally optimistic about the economy - we're one of those companies making up the "vanishingly small" private sector, we've invested hundreds of millions of dollars in recent years and are continuing to invest more into the country.
I despair whenever I try to understand price movements in labor / commodities / overheads in Argentina, but the people there perform a miracle and make it work somehow, you all have my deepest respect. Year after year, you guys have my best wishes that you will fix things!
As for the 140% inflation, from an outsider view it was probably the best of all outcomes - going into Covid with no reserves, what would you do in that position. You put in some restrictions to slow the spread of Covid, people can't work, revenues tank, foreign money markets dry up, you need to keep hospitals and electricity running. Only thing you can do is print money and keep going, at least you survive another day.
posted by xdvesper at 5:54 AM on November 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
Unfortunately it's a choice between someone who might ruin everything (Milei) and someone who will definitely ruin everything (Massa).
I respectfully suggest that as bad as things are - and they are bad! (I have old porteño friends, who I occasionally speak to) "everything" hasn't been tried yet.
The things that Milei will ruin are very different than Massa's. As for Villarruel.......
posted by lalochezia at 6:33 AM on November 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
> And so when you put a populace in a position like this, election results like what we just saw are inevitable.
This is the the future that awaits us all. As things continue to fall apart, people will increasingly lash out in fear and anger.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:10 AM on November 21, 2023 [12 favorites]
This is the the future that awaits us all. As things continue to fall apart, people will increasingly lash out in fear and anger.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:10 AM on November 21, 2023 [12 favorites]
dead dog that he has since cloned and converted into his political counsel.
Caligula and Incitatus, anyone?
This is terrifying.
posted by dlugoczaj at 7:12 AM on November 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Caligula and Incitatus, anyone?
This is terrifying.
posted by dlugoczaj at 7:12 AM on November 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
The sooner we can stop pretending that "libertarian" is some species of smarter and more tolerant conservative, and accept that libertarianism is not any kind of political alignment but is more akin to an extremist religion, the better.
It doesn't matter what this lunatic does. Libertarianism, as a religion, cannot be disproven. If its maxims and orthodoxy don't "work" when put into effect, that's just "proof" that the policies were not effectively implemented, or that "globalists," "leftists," and "collectivists" somehow foiled them. It's not possible that libertarianism's central tenants are simply wrong, and have been proven wrong over and over again.
posted by 1adam12 at 9:21 AM on November 21, 2023 [11 favorites]
It doesn't matter what this lunatic does. Libertarianism, as a religion, cannot be disproven. If its maxims and orthodoxy don't "work" when put into effect, that's just "proof" that the policies were not effectively implemented, or that "globalists," "leftists," and "collectivists" somehow foiled them. It's not possible that libertarianism's central tenants are simply wrong, and have been proven wrong over and over again.
posted by 1adam12 at 9:21 AM on November 21, 2023 [11 favorites]
So, is there anybody sufficiently literate on Argentine politics to way in on this matter:
"To what degree is Milei likely to fall between being actually libertarian, Chicago school fanatic, Trumpian populist, Peronist, and authoritarian?"
He's dangerous. And stupid. Not just "crazy". The reason I say that is - his talk of "non-violence" is very "NAP" (non-aggression principle). He could just be saying that, but it really sounds like he's a true believe in this - which means he's more libertarian than Trump. This *could*/should be a good thing except his absolute hatred of "the left" and vowing to "work with anyone who wants to stop them".
You can see where this is going. You will be subverted by actual fascists who like always use libertarianism for their own ends. There are a few kinds of libertarians, in the US most are just straight up reactionary slaveowner wannabes. But there are some "bleeding heart" - this guy seems to be somewhere in the middle.
IDK, I tire of the insanity. Was it always like this and we were just younger? Or is it really that just more fucked up now? It felt saner 20 years ago, but maybe I'm wrong.
posted by symbioid at 10:42 AM on November 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
"To what degree is Milei likely to fall between being actually libertarian, Chicago school fanatic, Trumpian populist, Peronist, and authoritarian?"
He's dangerous. And stupid. Not just "crazy". The reason I say that is - his talk of "non-violence" is very "NAP" (non-aggression principle). He could just be saying that, but it really sounds like he's a true believe in this - which means he's more libertarian than Trump. This *could*/should be a good thing except his absolute hatred of "the left" and vowing to "work with anyone who wants to stop them".
You can see where this is going. You will be subverted by actual fascists who like always use libertarianism for their own ends. There are a few kinds of libertarians, in the US most are just straight up reactionary slaveowner wannabes. But there are some "bleeding heart" - this guy seems to be somewhere in the middle.
IDK, I tire of the insanity. Was it always like this and we were just younger? Or is it really that just more fucked up now? It felt saner 20 years ago, but maybe I'm wrong.
posted by symbioid at 10:42 AM on November 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
This clown show has China written all over it.
Well, the economist Milei intends to pick as foreign minister has more or less said she will end the secret deals that have been a hallmark of the China's lending and development program. They've also declined invitations to Putin's BRICS coalition, an economic development forum seemingly becoming a who's who of oppressive regimes. If anything, this is a reaction to the previous government's cozy relationship with China.
posted by pwnguin at 11:27 AM on November 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Well, the economist Milei intends to pick as foreign minister has more or less said she will end the secret deals that have been a hallmark of the China's lending and development program. They've also declined invitations to Putin's BRICS coalition, an economic development forum seemingly becoming a who's who of oppressive regimes. If anything, this is a reaction to the previous government's cozy relationship with China.
posted by pwnguin at 11:27 AM on November 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Argentina’s new leader is a snake-oil salesman with extreme views on abortion, gay rights and more. I fear for my country
posted by lalochezia at 1:42 PM on November 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
I said it back when Trump was running and people didn't understand why it's a very old concept that I use as a base within the chronology called the Clodius Pulcher-Macer effect.
Caesar's wife must be above suspicion!
how'd that work out for the dictator.
It's mainly hinged on public outrage.
clown is apt to a certain degree but they're intended to entertain us all the while within modern culture, they seem to scare us. another analogy might be the rodeo clown but that's not very apt because rodeo clown has the rodeo riders back if something goes wrong which might be its own form of entertainment itself with the emergence of the internet to further disseminate and dissemble arcane information, popular facts, and many many sites to express the daily outrage, harness that and promise people money, ssshhheeeeetttt.
and more over the second phase would be the so-called right or Republicans in the polity of the world to do another thing and that is to start slowly stealing every social program the left has.
posted by clavdivs at 4:56 PM on November 21, 2023
Caesar's wife must be above suspicion!
how'd that work out for the dictator.
It's mainly hinged on public outrage.
clown is apt to a certain degree but they're intended to entertain us all the while within modern culture, they seem to scare us. another analogy might be the rodeo clown but that's not very apt because rodeo clown has the rodeo riders back if something goes wrong which might be its own form of entertainment itself with the emergence of the internet to further disseminate and dissemble arcane information, popular facts, and many many sites to express the daily outrage, harness that and promise people money, ssshhheeeeetttt.
and more over the second phase would be the so-called right or Republicans in the polity of the world to do another thing and that is to start slowly stealing every social program the left has.
posted by clavdivs at 4:56 PM on November 21, 2023
Or is it really that just more fucked up now? It felt saner 20 years ago, but maybe I'm wrong.
I wonder how much of Argentina's embrace of fascism (or the world's general pull towards fascism, even) is due to drought or other issues directly created by climate change. A recent news article references drought that had caused one farmer to lose pasture that fed his animals, and he was forced to switch feed that was more expensive and priced in dollars. This in turn leads to the kind of governance that becomes more attractive, even if extreme. Or to civil war, as seen in Syria and the droughts there. Or perhaps to invasion, as seen by Russia of Ukraine, for its ample wheat and corn supplies in the face of the former Soviet tundra becoming the site of forest fires and methane clathrate melts.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:57 AM on November 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
I wonder how much of Argentina's embrace of fascism (or the world's general pull towards fascism, even) is due to drought or other issues directly created by climate change. A recent news article references drought that had caused one farmer to lose pasture that fed his animals, and he was forced to switch feed that was more expensive and priced in dollars. This in turn leads to the kind of governance that becomes more attractive, even if extreme. Or to civil war, as seen in Syria and the droughts there. Or perhaps to invasion, as seen by Russia of Ukraine, for its ample wheat and corn supplies in the face of the former Soviet tundra becoming the site of forest fires and methane clathrate melts.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:57 AM on November 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
he can break everything so much that it has to be rebuilt from the ground up, which is what is needed.
The video of him ripping down post it notes that said things like municipal services and saying how those won't get paid for would get the 'break everything' rolling.
The not spending money idea has plenty of ink spilled with 'austerity of the iMF doesn't work' being worth a few inkwells. Most of the ones i'd seen was comments on how Greece is doing.
And one of the better 'be careful what you ask for on rebuild from the ground up' would be Micheal Badnarik talking to people in the US who are wanting a Constitutional Convention. Short version - don't because the corporate interests will dominate and the result won't be pretty.
posted by rough ashlar at 3:32 AM on November 30, 2023
The video of him ripping down post it notes that said things like municipal services and saying how those won't get paid for would get the 'break everything' rolling.
The not spending money idea has plenty of ink spilled with 'austerity of the iMF doesn't work' being worth a few inkwells. Most of the ones i'd seen was comments on how Greece is doing.
And one of the better 'be careful what you ask for on rebuild from the ground up' would be Micheal Badnarik talking to people in the US who are wanting a Constitutional Convention. Short version - don't because the corporate interests will dominate and the result won't be pretty.
posted by rough ashlar at 3:32 AM on November 30, 2023
Is there any means by which he could realistically pursue dollarization? As bitcoin is a keyword, could Tether con him into making USDT an official currency?
It'll presumably play havoc with their economy if they're all told they've some easily accessible, fungible, etc. currency which holds value better than physical capital like land and factories, no?
posted by jeffburdges at 10:53 AM on December 4, 2023
It'll presumably play havoc with their economy if they're all told they've some easily accessible, fungible, etc. currency which holds value better than physical capital like land and factories, no?
posted by jeffburdges at 10:53 AM on December 4, 2023
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