How Britain got done by Getting Brexit Done
March 18, 2024 6:16 AM Subscribe
Four years on from Britain's exit from the EU, how's it going? Swimmingly, say its supporters, who argue that we should stop blaming Brexit for our economic ills. Most people in the UK have more of a sinking feeling about it, but the prospects for repairing or reversing the damage are unclear.
Creating the post-Brexit state is still very much a work in progress. Brexit still isn't done+—for one thing, border inspections will start in May. Despite the supposed "hammer blow for Rejoiners" of Britain's trade deal with Australia, the trade patterns finally emerging in the data confirm Brexit's dismal impact; are UK regulators just not trying hard enough+ to make the most of it? Will geo-political forces push Britain and Europe back together+?
If they do, it can't come soon enough. Britain is becoming a toxic chemical dumping ground. Defra’s experience has shown the problems in making Brexit work. Labour is looking to roll back Brexit's worst effects+, although its supporters are divided. Many voters no longer seem to care whether Brexit means Brexit: they just want done to mean done.
Just want to ignore it all and drown yourself in drink? Post-Brexit tax rules mean price rises are in store for UK wine drinkers.
Creating the post-Brexit state is still very much a work in progress. Brexit still isn't done+—for one thing, border inspections will start in May. Despite the supposed "hammer blow for Rejoiners" of Britain's trade deal with Australia, the trade patterns finally emerging in the data confirm Brexit's dismal impact; are UK regulators just not trying hard enough+ to make the most of it? Will geo-political forces push Britain and Europe back together+?
If they do, it can't come soon enough. Britain is becoming a toxic chemical dumping ground. Defra’s experience has shown the problems in making Brexit work. Labour is looking to roll back Brexit's worst effects+, although its supporters are divided. Many voters no longer seem to care whether Brexit means Brexit: they just want done to mean done.
Just want to ignore it all and drown yourself in drink? Post-Brexit tax rules mean price rises are in store for UK wine drinkers.
but the prospects for repairing or reversing the damage are unclear.
This is the weird part to me. Seen from the outside (so, obviously missing a lot of nuance and complexity), Brexit looks to have been a terrible choice, but one that could indeed be reversed, assuming the EU was willing to welcome the UK back. But somehow reversing is completely unthinkable to a lot of people, so this change is talked about like it is permanent. Maybe there is a sunk-cost fallacy involved?
posted by Dip Flash at 6:26 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
This is the weird part to me. Seen from the outside (so, obviously missing a lot of nuance and complexity), Brexit looks to have been a terrible choice, but one that could indeed be reversed, assuming the EU was willing to welcome the UK back. But somehow reversing is completely unthinkable to a lot of people, so this change is talked about like it is permanent. Maybe there is a sunk-cost fallacy involved?
posted by Dip Flash at 6:26 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
Grumpybearbride and I recently visited Finland and connected through Copenhagen. While we were there, we visited Estonia. Being inside the Schengen Area made everything super easy, and trade between Estonia and Finland is absolutely booming. Britain used to have that!
It is a travesty what Brexit has wrought, and David Cameron was an absolute fool for forcing that vote.
posted by grumpybear69 at 6:26 AM on March 18 [23 favorites]
It is a travesty what Brexit has wrought, and David Cameron was an absolute fool for forcing that vote.
posted by grumpybear69 at 6:26 AM on March 18 [23 favorites]
(Oh, and thanks to Brexit a united Ireland is growing ever more likely. Every cloud, eh lads?)
I mean, Star Trek predicted it years ago.
posted by briank at 6:28 AM on March 18 [19 favorites]
I mean, Star Trek predicted it years ago.
posted by briank at 6:28 AM on March 18 [19 favorites]
assuming the EU was willing to welcome the UK back.
that's a pretty big assumption to make. and even if they were willing, the terms would be draconian.
for sure the UK would have to join the single currency, and would no longer have the opt-outs
Brexit traded the UK's leadership position in a major trade bloc, defined on its terms and with special rules, for a handful of lies.
posted by chavenet at 6:35 AM on March 18 [78 favorites]
that's a pretty big assumption to make. and even if they were willing, the terms would be draconian.
for sure the UK would have to join the single currency, and would no longer have the opt-outs
Brexit traded the UK's leadership position in a major trade bloc, defined on its terms and with special rules, for a handful of lies.
posted by chavenet at 6:35 AM on March 18 [78 favorites]
Regarding stopping blaming Brexit for our economic ills, he's not wrong that things have been pretty awful for a decade and a half... coincidentally about the length of time we've had a Conservative government. The Tories were chopping up the ship of state and selling it for firewood before Brexit and have gone right on doing it after--as is evident from the latest budget where 'tax cuts' are being funded by projecting another bloodletting of the public sector post-election. Brexit was just burning the lifeboats so that we'll all be stuck here as it slowly sinks.
I'd love to think Labour will do something radically different when they get in, but that's all based on hoping Starmer is--how to say this nicely--being a bit pliable with the truth regarding his actual intentions. No matter how many times Polly Toynbee says that this is the case, I can't convince myself that it's true.
posted by nangua at 6:35 AM on March 18 [31 favorites]
I'd love to think Labour will do something radically different when they get in, but that's all based on hoping Starmer is--how to say this nicely--being a bit pliable with the truth regarding his actual intentions. No matter how many times Polly Toynbee says that this is the case, I can't convince myself that it's true.
posted by nangua at 6:35 AM on March 18 [31 favorites]
Somehow reversing is completely unthinkable to a lot of people, so this change is talked about like it is permanent. Maybe there is a sunk-cost fallacy involved?
Well, some do still like being out of the EU, economic impact be damned (and some don't believe any of that is Brexit's fault anyway), while for others it'll be a toxic combination of wounded pride, stubbornness and "mustn't grumble". Most, though, don't expect anything to change for the better until the Tories are out. So, that'll be next January, given that Sunak looks as if he'll hang on until the bitter end rather than risk holding an election a day before he has to.
posted by rory at 6:39 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
Well, some do still like being out of the EU, economic impact be damned (and some don't believe any of that is Brexit's fault anyway), while for others it'll be a toxic combination of wounded pride, stubbornness and "mustn't grumble". Most, though, don't expect anything to change for the better until the Tories are out. So, that'll be next January, given that Sunak looks as if he'll hang on until the bitter end rather than risk holding an election a day before he has to.
posted by rory at 6:39 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
>Maybe there is a sunk-cost fallacy involved?
People who would want Brexit undone are a tiny minority.
The proud Brexiteers genuinely don't believe that it was a mistake. All the issues we're still dealing with are blamed on a combination of soft-Brexiteer saboteurs who were unwilling to do it "properly", and the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Brexit cannot fail, it can only be failed.
As for the architects of Brexit, I've no inside knowledge, but I suspect that they're happy with how it's going. They're all minted and well-set to survive any level of general economic hardship. What they wanted out of it was to generate a surge of populism and xenophobia, and various short term grifts. Mission accomplished.
Outside of the true-believer circles, a majority proportion of remainers, disillusioned brexiteers (and bystanders) are just fed up. Even those against Brexit found the runup to the referendum, and the actual exit itself so miserable that they just don't have the spoons any more. Their stance is that they never want to hear the B-word again. They'd rather just take the L than go through that clusterfuck again.
posted by Lorc at 6:39 AM on March 18 [9 favorites]
People who would want Brexit undone are a tiny minority.
The proud Brexiteers genuinely don't believe that it was a mistake. All the issues we're still dealing with are blamed on a combination of soft-Brexiteer saboteurs who were unwilling to do it "properly", and the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Brexit cannot fail, it can only be failed.
As for the architects of Brexit, I've no inside knowledge, but I suspect that they're happy with how it's going. They're all minted and well-set to survive any level of general economic hardship. What they wanted out of it was to generate a surge of populism and xenophobia, and various short term grifts. Mission accomplished.
Outside of the true-believer circles, a majority proportion of remainers, disillusioned brexiteers (and bystanders) are just fed up. Even those against Brexit found the runup to the referendum, and the actual exit itself so miserable that they just don't have the spoons any more. Their stance is that they never want to hear the B-word again. They'd rather just take the L than go through that clusterfuck again.
posted by Lorc at 6:39 AM on March 18 [9 favorites]
Britain is becoming a toxic chemical dumping ground.
That was written by George Monbiot. He laments that:
In the days leading up to the Brexit vote, Monbiot came to speak at the small English town where I lived. Back then his view of Brexit was more nuanced, you might say. He was (rightfully) against the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and felt that Britain. on its own, could do better (Spoiler: It hasn't)
I'm with Monbiot on being against the CAP, but leaving the EU to achieve that was definitely throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The baby in this case was the raft of policies and regulations that do protect against vulture capitalism's worst instincts. Monbiot was cited by right-wing rags to show how Brexit would be good for Nature. And if you care about Nature, European Nature at least instead of only British Nature then you fight within the EU system to get policies changed. Now instead, the battle has to be fought on multiple fronts.
I'm bringing all this up because British Exceptionalism led to Brexit and it cuts across Left wing and Right wing, across Tory and Labour party lines. There's still true believers on the Left and Right that believe that Brexit was the true and proper thing and that it is these (particular) Tories that have made a hash of it. But, you'll see, as soon as (Labour/Greens/Reform/a Tory party with more white people in it) take power, Britain will rise again to become a world power, admired by all.
posted by vacapinta at 6:47 AM on March 18 [22 favorites]
That was written by George Monbiot. He laments that:
And so on...
[Britain still has ] toxins now being banned or restricted in Europe. For example, tetraethyl lead has long been banned from fuel for surface vehicles. But it continues to be used in aircraft fuel, ensuring we are sprayed with a chemical that causes neurological disorders. The EU, after long resisting the obvious step, has at last ruled that it must be phased out. But the UK hasn’t. It will remain legal here. The same goes for endocrine-disrupting chemicals in children’s toys, formaldehyde, brominated flame retardants and the microplastics intentionally added to fertilisers and artificial sport surfaces....
...In some respects, we’ve even been spiralling backwards.
...
The government has decided that workplace exposure limits on dimethylformamide, and restrictions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in synthetic sports pitches, of lead in PVC products and of hazardous substances in disposable nappies are “not a priority for action this year”.
..
In the EU, there is now a total ban on the use of neonicotinoid pesticides – perhaps better labelled ecocides, thanks to their remarkably wide range of impacts. But every year since we left the EU, the UK government has granted an “emergency” exemption from the supposed ban here, following lobbying by sugar beet producers and the National Farmers Union.
...
In the days leading up to the Brexit vote, Monbiot came to speak at the small English town where I lived. Back then his view of Brexit was more nuanced, you might say. He was (rightfully) against the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and felt that Britain. on its own, could do better (Spoiler: It hasn't)
I'm with Monbiot on being against the CAP, but leaving the EU to achieve that was definitely throwing out the baby with the bathwater. The baby in this case was the raft of policies and regulations that do protect against vulture capitalism's worst instincts. Monbiot was cited by right-wing rags to show how Brexit would be good for Nature. And if you care about Nature, European Nature at least instead of only British Nature then you fight within the EU system to get policies changed. Now instead, the battle has to be fought on multiple fronts.
I'm bringing all this up because British Exceptionalism led to Brexit and it cuts across Left wing and Right wing, across Tory and Labour party lines. There's still true believers on the Left and Right that believe that Brexit was the true and proper thing and that it is these (particular) Tories that have made a hash of it. But, you'll see, as soon as (Labour/Greens/Reform/a Tory party with more white people in it) take power, Britain will rise again to become a world power, admired by all.
posted by vacapinta at 6:47 AM on March 18 [22 favorites]
People who would want Brexit undone are a tiny minority.
That just isn't true, though. A YouGov poll last summer found that most Britons would now vote to Remain were the EU referendum being held again, and likewise would vote to rejoin the EU if such a vote were being called: "Were a new referendum called on whether or not to return to the EU, 51% of Britons would vote to rejoin, compared to 32% who would vote to stay out (giving a headline vote figure of 61% to 39%)."
Meanwhile, a November 2023 YouGov poll showed that "57% of Britons would now support joining the single market even if that meant the resumption of the free movement of people [while] one in five people opposed it": "In general, the poll shows that 72% of Britons want the country to have closer ties with the European Union, including a majority of both Remain and Leave voters."
posted by rory at 6:49 AM on March 18 [36 favorites]
That just isn't true, though. A YouGov poll last summer found that most Britons would now vote to Remain were the EU referendum being held again, and likewise would vote to rejoin the EU if such a vote were being called: "Were a new referendum called on whether or not to return to the EU, 51% of Britons would vote to rejoin, compared to 32% who would vote to stay out (giving a headline vote figure of 61% to 39%)."
Meanwhile, a November 2023 YouGov poll showed that "57% of Britons would now support joining the single market even if that meant the resumption of the free movement of people [while] one in five people opposed it": "In general, the poll shows that 72% of Britons want the country to have closer ties with the European Union, including a majority of both Remain and Leave voters."
posted by rory at 6:49 AM on March 18 [36 favorites]
Brexit cost Britain terribly. Still isn't done. And AFAIK, has provided zero benefits, certainly not the ones that were promised.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:50 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:50 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
This is the weird part to me. Seen from the outside (so, obviously missing a lot of nuance and complexity), Brexit looks to have been a terrible choice, but one that could indeed be reversed, assuming the EU was willing to welcome the UK back. But somehow reversing is completely unthinkable to a lot of people, so this change is talked about like it is permanent. Maybe there is a sunk-cost fallacy involved?
Public opinion overall has fairly decisively concluded that Brexit was indeed a shit idea. On the other hand, there's still 30-35% who very vocally still think it was great, mainly so we could have some more performative politics about kicking the forrins out. The conservatives, having invited the far right nutjobs into the parliamentary party to see off Farage (the membership have long been full-on swivel-eyed fruitcakes), are clearly not going to disavow Boris' big election winning adventure any time soon, and have doubled down on talking a big game about illegal immigration (Rwanda et al) and planning to make it much harder for immigrants to come in with or rejoin family. The monied elite, of course, do what they like.
Labour, having taken a more nuanced '2nd referendum' stance on Brexit got their worst result since the 40's at the last general election, not least because many of their key marginals, the so called 'red wall' switched sides over preferring Boris' lies over Brexit (Corbyn, obviously, didn't help either). Those 35% supporters really matter to Labour for getting those seats back. So, in line with many other Starmer positions, the choice is 'we're changing nothing to do with Brexit, apart from being adults who will manage it better'. The seats in the south where a re-joining stance might possibly help are ones more likely to flip to the Lib Dems anyway, so no great loss from their point of view.
But I think mostly, it's just people are just sooooo tired of hearing about Brexit, that even though it has unsurprisingly turned out to be a foot shooting exercise, they're so traumatised they just don't want to think about it ever again. They care a lot more about low pay, an NHS on its knees and the general cost of living, even though all of those causes are in part due to Brexit. The danger for Labour is, in mirroring Blair by offering very little actual change in order to fend off the rabid pro-tory media, if things don't actually start improving then their honeymoon will be very short indeed.
You also have to factor in that the EU have little interest in revisiting the long-drawn out Brexit negotiations. They likely would be somewhat interested in having the UK back, but only if was decisively settled as an enthusiastic choice of the populace, not something that could flip-flop back again. Plus the old terms are gone; we'd be re-entering as a new member, under the current rules (e.g. would have to adopt the Euro, Schengen etc) which would be extremely inflammatory to the vocal anti-EU minority.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:52 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
Public opinion overall has fairly decisively concluded that Brexit was indeed a shit idea. On the other hand, there's still 30-35% who very vocally still think it was great, mainly so we could have some more performative politics about kicking the forrins out. The conservatives, having invited the far right nutjobs into the parliamentary party to see off Farage (the membership have long been full-on swivel-eyed fruitcakes), are clearly not going to disavow Boris' big election winning adventure any time soon, and have doubled down on talking a big game about illegal immigration (Rwanda et al) and planning to make it much harder for immigrants to come in with or rejoin family. The monied elite, of course, do what they like.
Labour, having taken a more nuanced '2nd referendum' stance on Brexit got their worst result since the 40's at the last general election, not least because many of their key marginals, the so called 'red wall' switched sides over preferring Boris' lies over Brexit (Corbyn, obviously, didn't help either). Those 35% supporters really matter to Labour for getting those seats back. So, in line with many other Starmer positions, the choice is 'we're changing nothing to do with Brexit, apart from being adults who will manage it better'. The seats in the south where a re-joining stance might possibly help are ones more likely to flip to the Lib Dems anyway, so no great loss from their point of view.
But I think mostly, it's just people are just sooooo tired of hearing about Brexit, that even though it has unsurprisingly turned out to be a foot shooting exercise, they're so traumatised they just don't want to think about it ever again. They care a lot more about low pay, an NHS on its knees and the general cost of living, even though all of those causes are in part due to Brexit. The danger for Labour is, in mirroring Blair by offering very little actual change in order to fend off the rabid pro-tory media, if things don't actually start improving then their honeymoon will be very short indeed.
You also have to factor in that the EU have little interest in revisiting the long-drawn out Brexit negotiations. They likely would be somewhat interested in having the UK back, but only if was decisively settled as an enthusiastic choice of the populace, not something that could flip-flop back again. Plus the old terms are gone; we'd be re-entering as a new member, under the current rules (e.g. would have to adopt the Euro, Schengen etc) which would be extremely inflammatory to the vocal anti-EU minority.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:52 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
I absolutely agree that a majority of people would want Brexit undone in hindsight. But creating that movement to return, and then actioning a return to the EU would be a massive undertaking. That's the process that I think most people are too tired to support.
posted by Lorc at 6:57 AM on March 18 [11 favorites]
posted by Lorc at 6:57 AM on March 18 [11 favorites]
That's a fair point, Lorc. It's going to be a long road back—I wouldn't expect us back in the Single Market before the election after next, and the EU itself, who knows. But I can still remember getting a mad-looking flyer in the 2005 election from some bunch of no-hopers called UKIP, and look what they achieved...
On that note, Saturday 23 March is the Day For Rejoin, with events being held around the UK. Probably only small-scale, but it's something.
posted by rory at 7:08 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
On that note, Saturday 23 March is the Day For Rejoin, with events being held around the UK. Probably only small-scale, but it's something.
posted by rory at 7:08 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
Starmer, the next PM, wrote this in 2021:
“The referendum was five years ago now. We have left the EU. There is no case for rejoining. We want to make our exit a success."
Unfortunately, and I say this as the remainiest of remainers, he's right in this
especially that statement "there's no case for rejoining" - but not the way most read it . "no case" is not on the UK's part. it is on the EU's. why the fuck would they let us back in after all the damage we caused? (the EU was consumed with the UK's toddler-strop for 5 years, delaying all kinds of necessary shit)........so they let us back in so we can turn around again if we have a nartionalist shartfit again and fuck the chicken once more?
we already weakened the EU in many ways (divide and conquer, less $$), but one GOOD thing that happened is the nationalist shitbags in europe took one look at what happened to the UK and went "welp". very few parties of any influence in europe are now pro-themselves-leaving.
posted by lalochezia at 7:14 AM on March 18 [36 favorites]
“The referendum was five years ago now. We have left the EU. There is no case for rejoining. We want to make our exit a success."
Unfortunately, and I say this as the remainiest of remainers, he's right in this
especially that statement "there's no case for rejoining" - but not the way most read it . "no case" is not on the UK's part. it is on the EU's. why the fuck would they let us back in after all the damage we caused? (the EU was consumed with the UK's toddler-strop for 5 years, delaying all kinds of necessary shit)........so they let us back in so we can turn around again if we have a nartionalist shartfit again and fuck the chicken once more?
we already weakened the EU in many ways (divide and conquer, less $$), but one GOOD thing that happened is the nationalist shitbags in europe took one look at what happened to the UK and went "welp". very few parties of any influence in europe are now pro-themselves-leaving.
posted by lalochezia at 7:14 AM on March 18 [36 favorites]
(The EU...delaying all kinds of necessary shit)
I've not heard that argument. Could you expand on that, or direct me to sources?
posted by BWA at 7:25 AM on March 18 [1 favorite]
I've not heard that argument. Could you expand on that, or direct me to sources?
posted by BWA at 7:25 AM on March 18 [1 favorite]
And yet.
At the end of the day, the EU is bureaucratic and pragmatic. If it does the sums and figures it's worth it, and is reassured that the UK it's dealing with isn't 2016-UK (which it won't be), why not? Even Serbia has been an EU member candidate since 2012, which was barely a decade after the Yugoslav Wars ended.
Also, it might be that the UK rejoins in bits. Would the EU reject an independent Scotland that never voted for Brexit?
posted by rory at 7:32 AM on March 18 [3 favorites]
At the end of the day, the EU is bureaucratic and pragmatic. If it does the sums and figures it's worth it, and is reassured that the UK it's dealing with isn't 2016-UK (which it won't be), why not? Even Serbia has been an EU member candidate since 2012, which was barely a decade after the Yugoslav Wars ended.
Also, it might be that the UK rejoins in bits. Would the EU reject an independent Scotland that never voted for Brexit?
posted by rory at 7:32 AM on March 18 [3 favorites]
I work with a guy whose Spanish mother married an Englishman and they retired to Spain, using his EU passport. Two of their sons came with them, using theirs. After Brexit, their UK passports obviously weren't EU anymore. They got it worked out for his dad to get a spouse visa, but his brothers had to abandon careers and lives in Spain and go back to the UK. I have to imagine there's a lot of that.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:42 AM on March 18 [13 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:42 AM on March 18 [13 favorites]
I would guess that the biggest iceberg in the path of rejoin is that the EU would probably not admit the UK without adopting the Euro, and that transition would be inevitably messy enough to sour public opinion on the whole process. Some fraction of public support for rejoin, probably quite a lot of it, is based on the idea of going back to what they had before - which is not likely to be on the table.
posted by allegedly at 7:44 AM on March 18 [12 favorites]
posted by allegedly at 7:44 AM on March 18 [12 favorites]
I've not heard that argument. Could you expand on that, or direct me to sources?
The amount of effort that went into negotiations with the UK dealing with the runup to and execution of the exit, by necessity, took staff and resources from more pressing shit - climate change, russia, etc. etc.
posted by lalochezia at 7:44 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
The amount of effort that went into negotiations with the UK dealing with the runup to and execution of the exit, by necessity, took staff and resources from more pressing shit - climate change, russia, etc. etc.
posted by lalochezia at 7:44 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
rory - it will will be a very long road. UKIP started in 1993, and the Referendum Party started fielding candidates in 1997. They were at this for over 20 years before getting what they wanted.
I think the best hope is in a incremental approach - rejoin the single marker and/or customs union first, then more treaties. Most people are in favour of this, and it can even be sold to the hard core as this one brilliant trick - we get most of the benefits of membership without having to join their stupid club! Once the border inspections start in May, it will be even harder to argue it's been a boon.
Beyond that, it's a generational thing. I agree with the general tone that few people are passionate enough to dedicate their life to campaigning to rejoin.
posted by YoungStencil at 7:45 AM on March 18 [4 favorites]
I think the best hope is in a incremental approach - rejoin the single marker and/or customs union first, then more treaties. Most people are in favour of this, and it can even be sold to the hard core as this one brilliant trick - we get most of the benefits of membership without having to join their stupid club! Once the border inspections start in May, it will be even harder to argue it's been a boon.
Beyond that, it's a generational thing. I agree with the general tone that few people are passionate enough to dedicate their life to campaigning to rejoin.
posted by YoungStencil at 7:45 AM on March 18 [4 favorites]
for sure the UK would have to join the single currency, and would no longer have the opt-outs
In the 1990s, Argentina decided to peg the peso to the dollar, and the US Fed begged them not to. They were warned that the Fed's interest rates are set by the needs of the US, and they could zig when Argentina needed a zag. And then that happened, and it was not fun.
This is what gets me about Brexit. They were given an opt out on the Euro, and they flushed that own the toilet. Rejoining is probably good on the whole, but lots of countries can tell you how much fun it is to have interest rates set in Germany. Meanwhile, at least in theory, US states are allowed to issue their own currency. It happened in the Depression, and came close to happening in the 2008 Recession.
posted by ocschwar at 8:00 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
In the 1990s, Argentina decided to peg the peso to the dollar, and the US Fed begged them not to. They were warned that the Fed's interest rates are set by the needs of the US, and they could zig when Argentina needed a zag. And then that happened, and it was not fun.
This is what gets me about Brexit. They were given an opt out on the Euro, and they flushed that own the toilet. Rejoining is probably good on the whole, but lots of countries can tell you how much fun it is to have interest rates set in Germany. Meanwhile, at least in theory, US states are allowed to issue their own currency. It happened in the Depression, and came close to happening in the 2008 Recession.
posted by ocschwar at 8:00 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
As somebody else said to Dominic Cummings: "Imagine if all this energy had gone into addressing Britain's housing crisis." A lot of people - some of them very smart - spent decades campaigning to make us worse off. Only imagine what we could have done instead.
posted by YoungStencil at 8:03 AM on March 18 [14 favorites]
posted by YoungStencil at 8:03 AM on March 18 [14 favorites]
(Oh, and thanks to Brexit a united Ireland is growing ever more likely. Every cloud, eh lads?)
Not going to happen until the Republic gets public healthcare and housing at least as good as the UK, and until the North ceases to be absolutely reliant on subsidy from the mainland. If Ireland were to re-unify today both sides would be substantially worse off than before.
posted by june_dodecahedron at 8:20 AM on March 18 [3 favorites]
Not going to happen until the Republic gets public healthcare and housing at least as good as the UK, and until the North ceases to be absolutely reliant on subsidy from the mainland. If Ireland were to re-unify today both sides would be substantially worse off than before.
posted by june_dodecahedron at 8:20 AM on March 18 [3 favorites]
You know, being from the UK used to make me think I might be from somewhere special where people were particularly smart, creative and tolerant compared to other places and that was something to be proud of. Brexit cured me of that utterly.
Racist dumbass bigot country repeatedly stabbing itself in the face in an effort to make itself more bigoted .
posted by Artw at 8:30 AM on March 18 [22 favorites]
Racist dumbass bigot country repeatedly stabbing itself in the face in an effort to make itself more bigoted .
posted by Artw at 8:30 AM on March 18 [22 favorites]
Tory government has been one long huge grift. Donald Trump is an amateur in comparison. I wonder how much Russians have been involved and how much it is self-driven. For ordinary people, Brexit is just one aspect of a drive towards a poorer, more unfair country.
Unicef’s latest “report card”, which examined changes in relative child poverty between 2012 and 2021, found that the UK was the worst performer among 39 high-income countries. Our rates of relative child poverty had increased by nearly 20%. The government likes to claim that it has reduced absolute child poverty. It should be careful in making such claims. A recent report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation defined destitution as doing without two or more of: housing, light, heat, food, appropriate clothing or toiletries. In 2022, 1 million children in the UK were in a state of destitution – 2.9 times the level five years earlier. Among adults, 2.8 million were in destitution because of inability to afford these six basics.
Before Brexit, the government was blaming the EU for a level of inequality and food insecurity that didn't exist in any other EU country. Now I don't know who they can blame apart from themselves, it seems to be some sort of conspiracy theory, but mostly they don't care. Most Tories are not experiencing poverty, though I know some pensioners who are. They are pretending they are living during the war. Idiots.
posted by mumimor at 8:34 AM on March 18 [11 favorites]
Unicef’s latest “report card”, which examined changes in relative child poverty between 2012 and 2021, found that the UK was the worst performer among 39 high-income countries. Our rates of relative child poverty had increased by nearly 20%. The government likes to claim that it has reduced absolute child poverty. It should be careful in making such claims. A recent report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation defined destitution as doing without two or more of: housing, light, heat, food, appropriate clothing or toiletries. In 2022, 1 million children in the UK were in a state of destitution – 2.9 times the level five years earlier. Among adults, 2.8 million were in destitution because of inability to afford these six basics.
Before Brexit, the government was blaming the EU for a level of inequality and food insecurity that didn't exist in any other EU country. Now I don't know who they can blame apart from themselves, it seems to be some sort of conspiracy theory, but mostly they don't care. Most Tories are not experiencing poverty, though I know some pensioners who are. They are pretending they are living during the war. Idiots.
posted by mumimor at 8:34 AM on March 18 [11 favorites]
I would guess that the biggest iceberg in the path of rejoin is that the EU would probably not admit the UK without adopting the Euro
There's a reason almost a third of the EU is outside the eurozone: EU countries must enter the eurozone after meeting certain criteria. Countries, however, do have the right to put off meeting the eurozone criteria and thereby postpone their adoption of the euro.
What are these criteria? The key one is:
The country has to participate in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) for at least two years, without strong deviations from the ERM II central rate and without devaluing its currency's bilateral central rate against the euro in the same period. ... The purpose of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) is to demonstrate that a country's economy can function smoothly without recourse to excessive currency fluctuations. ... Participation in ERM II is voluntary, but is a mandatory step towards joining the euro area.
No country has to join the euro that doesn't want to, whatever they might say for the purposes of joining the EU. Denmark negotiated a permanent opt-out in 1992, so they're no longer a relevant comparison, but Sweden joined post-Maastricht and has used the "participating in ERM II is voluntary" condition to avoid the issue for decades. The Czechs, Poles and Hungarians have been in the EU since 2004, Bulgaria and Romania since 2007, and Croatia since 2013; they all still use their own currencies. Britain would just have to follow their example until such time as it's no longer an issue one way or another.
posted by rory at 8:35 AM on March 18 [16 favorites]
There's a reason almost a third of the EU is outside the eurozone: EU countries must enter the eurozone after meeting certain criteria. Countries, however, do have the right to put off meeting the eurozone criteria and thereby postpone their adoption of the euro.
What are these criteria? The key one is:
The country has to participate in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) for at least two years, without strong deviations from the ERM II central rate and without devaluing its currency's bilateral central rate against the euro in the same period. ... The purpose of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) is to demonstrate that a country's economy can function smoothly without recourse to excessive currency fluctuations. ... Participation in ERM II is voluntary, but is a mandatory step towards joining the euro area.
No country has to join the euro that doesn't want to, whatever they might say for the purposes of joining the EU. Denmark negotiated a permanent opt-out in 1992, so they're no longer a relevant comparison, but Sweden joined post-Maastricht and has used the "participating in ERM II is voluntary" condition to avoid the issue for decades. The Czechs, Poles and Hungarians have been in the EU since 2004, Bulgaria and Romania since 2007, and Croatia since 2013; they all still use their own currencies. Britain would just have to follow their example until such time as it's no longer an issue one way or another.
posted by rory at 8:35 AM on March 18 [16 favorites]
Being inside the Schengen Area made everyhing super easy, and trade between Estonia and Finland is absolutely booming. Britain used to have that!
For some reason, this is my hobby horse: the Schengen Zone is not the EU. Britain was never in Schengen, presumably due to a general (but not total) lack of land borders, racism, British exceptionalism and complications around the Irish border (which were presumably surmountable if both parties were so inclined, but, again, see the lack of other land borders).
posted by hoyland at 8:45 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
For some reason, this is my hobby horse: the Schengen Zone is not the EU. Britain was never in Schengen, presumably due to a general (but not total) lack of land borders, racism, British exceptionalism and complications around the Irish border (which were presumably surmountable if both parties were so inclined, but, again, see the lack of other land borders).
posted by hoyland at 8:45 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
Things are not looking good for any sort of liberal/left wing politics post election, for two reasons. Firstly, whoever wins will have no money, as the Tory party has reduced taxes as part of an underpant gnomes policy on financial growth. Secondly, Starmer is a technocrat to the core, and will spend his entire term rearranging the deckchairs rather than grabbing the fucking tiller and steering away from the iceberg.
posted by The River Ivel at 8:49 AM on March 18 [21 favorites]
posted by The River Ivel at 8:49 AM on March 18 [21 favorites]
I hope my racist family and their neighbors come to their senses one day, but I'm not hopeful. I'm sad that my passport isn't worth nearly what it was when Britain was a part of Europe. Maybe an NHS Party is borne from the ashes of the Labour and Tory parties that keep pushing Brexit to destroy what's left of the UK.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:51 AM on March 18 [2 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:51 AM on March 18 [2 favorites]
No govt is going to go anywhere near rejoining the EU or calling another referendum for decades, there's no stomach for that fight, but I do think we're eventually going to end up with a Norway-ish situation. It's been the only sane response to the referendum all along (technically outside EU but with most of the benefits) but can't happen until the xenophobes & right-wing press get a little quieter and politicians get a little braver.
posted by malevolent at 8:54 AM on March 18 [3 favorites]
posted by malevolent at 8:54 AM on March 18 [3 favorites]
This is what gets me about Brexit. They were given an opt out on the Euro, and they flushed that own the toilet. Rejoining is probably good on the whole, but lots of countries can tell you how much fun it is to have interest rates set in Germany. Meanwhile, at least in theory, US states are allowed to issue their own currency. It happened in the Depression, and came close to happening in the 2008 Recession.
The way US interest rates work with states having different economic statuses and agendas is through wealth transfers. Some states are straight up subsidized by the federal government. Which is why I think international wealth transfers between EU states are probably inevitable and probably the only way forward for the Euro.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:01 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts; pass any Bill of Attainder, ex post facto Law, or Law impairing the Obligation of Contracts, or grant any Title of Nobility.They can't enact their own currency. They can only mint and accept gold and silver coin.
The way US interest rates work with states having different economic statuses and agendas is through wealth transfers. Some states are straight up subsidized by the federal government. Which is why I think international wealth transfers between EU states are probably inevitable and probably the only way forward for the Euro.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:01 AM on March 18 [10 favorites]
I think one of the worst things to come out of brexit was obviated by the 2019 election, which seemed to put the balance of power between the parties in the hands of racist voters. I do think Brexit was enabled by xenophobes and straight up racists, but that election saw 'getting brexit done' become enough of a wedge issue that it drove lifelong Labour voters to move to the Tories, and keeping them onside seems to have become a driving force for finding wedges that will keep them there. And the only issue that seems to be getting any traction is immigration. Potentially a big enough defeat for the Tories in the upcoming GE will go some way to moving away from that focus, but more likely I guess immigration will continue to be a shitty stick to beat the Labour government.
posted by biffa at 9:06 AM on March 18 [2 favorites]
posted by biffa at 9:06 AM on March 18 [2 favorites]
It’s proof, as if it were needed, that even the biggest lies will be taken as truth if you tell them the right way. People are remarkably bad at fact checking to begin with, telling them something that agrees with their preconceived notions takes further advantage of this.
posted by tommasz at 9:13 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
posted by tommasz at 9:13 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
"All we need to do to make our country great again is to seal the borders, deport everyone of certain ethnicities, and ignore everyone who tells us otherwise."
"Are you Stephen Miller or Suella Braverman?"
"Yes."
posted by delfin at 9:25 AM on March 18 [13 favorites]
"Are you Stephen Miller or Suella Braverman?"
"Yes."
posted by delfin at 9:25 AM on March 18 [13 favorites]
> And AFAIK, has provided zero benefits
Hang on, what about blue passports, eh?
JFC, the mere mention of this is setting off Hulk mode. Now I need a beer and a sit down.
posted by 43rdAnd9th at 10:21 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
Hang on, what about blue passports, eh?
JFC, the mere mention of this is setting off Hulk mode. Now I need a beer and a sit down.
posted by 43rdAnd9th at 10:21 AM on March 18 [6 favorites]
More calmly... I know several older people (75+) who voted for Brexit and now absolutely regret their choice. I didn't know some of them knew those swear words.
posted by 43rdAnd9th at 10:25 AM on March 18 [9 favorites]
posted by 43rdAnd9th at 10:25 AM on March 18 [9 favorites]
Then they added that the UK has started reaching out to individual US States to negotiate separate trade deals, since they feel that the federal government has been moving too slowly. So far they've signed deals with Florida and now Texas, and are working on California, Colorado and Illinois.
That's good for letting UK politicians fly over and cut ribbons at events that pertain to this or that. company that does this or that trade with the UK.
As for meaningful improvements in employment in the UK? In my native language there's a lovely figure of speech for this kind of action: "cupping the dead."
posted by ocschwar at 10:41 AM on March 18 [3 favorites]
[to rejoin] for sure the UK would have to join the single currency
That's a bit of a fallacy, the UK would have to 'agree to adopt the Euro' at some unspecified time in the future, but as several EU members have demonstrated, the unspecified time in the future may be in a few thousand years time, so it is a pretty meaningless declaration (though the statement is still required to join).
The one benefit of Brexit is that our borders are now much more open to economic migrants from non-EU countries like India, China and Africa however the record high immigration numbers are not proving so popular with the people who voted for brexit.
posted by Lanark at 10:42 AM on March 18 [2 favorites]
That's a bit of a fallacy, the UK would have to 'agree to adopt the Euro' at some unspecified time in the future, but as several EU members have demonstrated, the unspecified time in the future may be in a few thousand years time, so it is a pretty meaningless declaration (though the statement is still required to join).
The one benefit of Brexit is that our borders are now much more open to economic migrants from non-EU countries like India, China and Africa however the record high immigration numbers are not proving so popular with the people who voted for brexit.
posted by Lanark at 10:42 AM on March 18 [2 favorites]
The one benefit of Brexit is that our borders are now much more open to economic migrants from non-EU countries like India, China and Africa however the record high immigration numbers are not proving so popular with the people who voted for brexit.
But you could have done that before Brexit too.
There are so many myths about the EU. Not only in the UK. It's a general thing in most EU countries, local politicians blame the EU for local decisions. Brexit has helped cure this disease and in most countries it has been very helpful. But it is still a huge problem that I deal with every day in my job.
posted by mumimor at 10:58 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
But you could have done that before Brexit too.
There are so many myths about the EU. Not only in the UK. It's a general thing in most EU countries, local politicians blame the EU for local decisions. Brexit has helped cure this disease and in most countries it has been very helpful. But it is still a huge problem that I deal with every day in my job.
posted by mumimor at 10:58 AM on March 18 [5 favorites]
Take your US politics somewhere else. This thread is for our shitshow.
posted by automatronic at 11:48 AM on March 18 [53 favorites]
posted by automatronic at 11:48 AM on March 18 [53 favorites]
But you could have done that before Brexit too.
not since the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1999
posted by Lanark at 12:17 PM on March 18 [1 favorite]
not since the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1999
posted by Lanark at 12:17 PM on March 18 [1 favorite]
Sadly, Brexit still means Brexit. No cake has appeared, and national enshittification continues to ensue, both literally (in terms of the rivers) and figuratively (in terms of the calibre of the average post-Brexit politician). I left Completely Normal Island some years ago and have zero desire to return. Beyond that, I wish all its remaining citizens the best of British luck.
posted by aeshnid at 12:36 PM on March 18 [2 favorites]
posted by aeshnid at 12:36 PM on March 18 [2 favorites]
Well here’s hoping for Labour and their promise to be 1 inch less shit (but no more) as at least a way of decelerating the decline.
posted by Artw at 12:54 PM on March 18
posted by Artw at 12:54 PM on March 18
not since the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1999
Wrong, Wrong. Wrong.
If any European country wants to admit immigrants they can, and they do. All the time. Because otherwise their economies could not function. And when they do, those immigrants have the right to travel and work throughout the union.
posted by mumimor at 12:58 PM on March 18 [3 favorites]
Wrong, Wrong. Wrong.
If any European country wants to admit immigrants they can, and they do. All the time. Because otherwise their economies could not function. And when they do, those immigrants have the right to travel and work throughout the union.
posted by mumimor at 12:58 PM on March 18 [3 favorites]
Mod note: A few comments deleted. This is not a US-centric thread. Let's keep it that way.
posted by loup (staff) at 1:01 PM on March 18 [7 favorites]
posted by loup (staff) at 1:01 PM on March 18 [7 favorites]
I look forward to the next Labour government spending their time in power spaffing everything up the wall while wringing their hands over culture war bollocks and achieving precisely nothing (as planned by the Tories), just in time for said Tories to come back in and blame them for not fixing their mess and get elected by a majority. Again.
I lost what little faith I had in this country on 24 June 2016. I vividly remember the following week when I was working at a small photography agency in London for two European ladies who had just seen their future snatched out of their hands. It was like someone had died, everyone was fucking miserable. Except for the worst possible people. It's amazing that this terminally stupid, bigoted, cruel little nation can still find a bottom to scrape, and yet we keep managing it.
But, yay! Sovereignty!
posted by fight or flight at 1:02 PM on March 18 [16 favorites]
I lost what little faith I had in this country on 24 June 2016. I vividly remember the following week when I was working at a small photography agency in London for two European ladies who had just seen their future snatched out of their hands. It was like someone had died, everyone was fucking miserable. Except for the worst possible people. It's amazing that this terminally stupid, bigoted, cruel little nation can still find a bottom to scrape, and yet we keep managing it.
But, yay! Sovereignty!
posted by fight or flight at 1:02 PM on March 18 [16 favorites]
Brexit forced the EU to cut off its own nose so the nose (the UK) could spite the face (the EU). Now the nose realizes it's dying but isn't like the EU should be excited about going through life without a nose.
Therefore I'm skeptical that the EU would impose significant new restrictions on the UK if they attempted to rejoin the EU such as forcing them to adopt the Euro. The EU and UK were both hurt by Brexit. The impacts have been bigger in the UK, but they are not immaterial in the EU. A simple undo on Brexit and a rapid return to the EU under the previous status quo would be the fastest way to repair the economic damage and see immiedate benefits. Imposing additional requirements like they have to join the Euro, or abandon previous opt-outs, or make additional structural changes before coming back while perhaps popular with people who want to punish the UK for leaving, would be counterproductive. Furthermore a return agreement that is seen as punitive to the UK will not get through Parliament -- thus undermining nay agreement. If this is the agreement that is offered, then it means the EU doesn't want the UK back.
posted by interogative mood at 1:34 PM on March 18
Therefore I'm skeptical that the EU would impose significant new restrictions on the UK if they attempted to rejoin the EU such as forcing them to adopt the Euro. The EU and UK were both hurt by Brexit. The impacts have been bigger in the UK, but they are not immaterial in the EU. A simple undo on Brexit and a rapid return to the EU under the previous status quo would be the fastest way to repair the economic damage and see immiedate benefits. Imposing additional requirements like they have to join the Euro, or abandon previous opt-outs, or make additional structural changes before coming back while perhaps popular with people who want to punish the UK for leaving, would be counterproductive. Furthermore a return agreement that is seen as punitive to the UK will not get through Parliament -- thus undermining nay agreement. If this is the agreement that is offered, then it means the EU doesn't want the UK back.
posted by interogative mood at 1:34 PM on March 18
More calmly... I know several older people (75+) who voted for Brexit and now absolutely regret their choice. I didn't know some of them knew those swear words.
The upper middle classimmigrants "ex-pats" who retired to a low cost of living country who voted for Brexit who are now effectively being kicked out of their adopted homes. Some of them who actually own property in those places. Just *chefs kiss* on how old people will vote to absolutely fuck themselves over racism.
Second only to Grimsby voting 70% to leave which has absolutely destroyed the fish processing industry that was there.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:35 PM on March 18 [15 favorites]
The upper middle class
Second only to Grimsby voting 70% to leave which has absolutely destroyed the fish processing industry that was there.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:35 PM on March 18 [15 favorites]
why the fuck would they let us back in after all the damage we caused?
Two reasons, maybe three or four (from this EU citizen's perspective):
1) the war against Ukraine has changed everything. Being nitpicky isn't so much fun when Europe is at an existential crisis. Strength in numbers.
2) It's not like any country's exit from the EU would have been more fun. The UK is a big country, so leaving was never going to be smooth. Most of us EU citizens understand that, I think. All things considered — in hindsight — it was a time sink, but it wasn't that bad (for the EU).
3) So many EU countries have been at some point, or are currently in, a phase of right wing leadership. Many have made vague or concrete proposals to leave the EU. It was Poland before the recent elections, now it's the Netherlands, we've got the AfD in Germany, etc. Leaving happened to be successful in the UK and we've learned from that. So, thanks, I guess?
4) Time has passed.
I've said it in other threads and I'll say it again: I'd love to see a UKR+UK EU expansion. It may be completely unlikely from the UK side, but I don't think the EU will stop it from happening. We're a messy family with all kinds of differences, and that's OK.
posted by UN at 1:35 PM on March 18 [3 favorites]
Two reasons, maybe three or four (from this EU citizen's perspective):
1) the war against Ukraine has changed everything. Being nitpicky isn't so much fun when Europe is at an existential crisis. Strength in numbers.
2) It's not like any country's exit from the EU would have been more fun. The UK is a big country, so leaving was never going to be smooth. Most of us EU citizens understand that, I think. All things considered — in hindsight — it was a time sink, but it wasn't that bad (for the EU).
3) So many EU countries have been at some point, or are currently in, a phase of right wing leadership. Many have made vague or concrete proposals to leave the EU. It was Poland before the recent elections, now it's the Netherlands, we've got the AfD in Germany, etc. Leaving happened to be successful in the UK and we've learned from that. So, thanks, I guess?
4) Time has passed.
I've said it in other threads and I'll say it again: I'd love to see a UKR+UK EU expansion. It may be completely unlikely from the UK side, but I don't think the EU will stop it from happening. We're a messy family with all kinds of differences, and that's OK.
posted by UN at 1:35 PM on March 18 [3 favorites]
I mean the first link is partly right. Not all of our economic problems are due to Brexit; we weren't in a great place in 2016 because our recovery from the 2008 crisis was so weak. I'm not sure that that is supposed to change anyone's vote in the coming election, seeing as the government in charge for 14 of the 16 years since '08 has been led by... the Conservative Party.
posted by Urtylug at 1:46 PM on March 18 [1 favorite]
posted by Urtylug at 1:46 PM on March 18 [1 favorite]
We're a messy family with all kinds of differences, and that's OK.
posted by UN
eponysterical
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:55 PM on March 18 [6 favorites]
posted by UN
eponysterical
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:55 PM on March 18 [6 favorites]
I reckon that the Tory PR machine has figured out that if they just keep changing leaders often enough, with each one making a big enough fuss, talking about their leadership being a complete fresh start, a new government, a break from the past... then voters might actually forget that it's been 14 years of the same shit.
The really sad thing is they're probably right.
posted by automatronic at 2:00 PM on March 18 [5 favorites]
The really sad thing is they're probably right.
posted by automatronic at 2:00 PM on March 18 [5 favorites]
> I know several older people (75+) who voted for Brexit and now absolutely regret their choice.I wonder what happened to “We're finally free from the tyranny of the Kraut” then.
posted by farlukar at 2:08 PM on March 18 [2 favorites]
First of all: I'm sure the UK is always welcome back, on the same conditions as everyone else. The Euro isn't a condition. Freedom of movement is. And so are a lot of regulations that the Tories don't want, most of them protecting us, the citizens.
Second: the UK is a relatively big European country, but it was more so before the East expansion, and its biggest contribution was the finance sector. Which has now to a large degree moved to other countries (The Netherlands, France and Germany). The banks have no incentive to move back, regardless of wether the UK is part of the EU or not. There were some worries about European export to the UK, but there is no significant effect of Brexit, everyone has either figured out how to export to the UK or found other markets. The only loser is the UK. There are lots of articles about The City and The Docklands emptying out, but if you read the British press, it seems have to do with "working from home", rather than working in Frankfurt. I know a few bankers. They are not working from home.
Leaving the EU has been a terrible failure. I can't see how anyone can see it as a success. And most far right parties in Europe have toned down their anti-EU rhetoric as a consequence. IMO people have realized that the EU is not responsible for those national policies that they were often blamed for. Most people really like freedom of movement and freedom of trade. They are freedoms that make sense for everyone's everyday lives.
People also really like the regulations, when they think about it. Which they don't do to much. But if you ask, most people prefer their food to be regulated, and protected. They like their Parma ham to be from Parma and their Camembert cheese to be from Camembert. They hate additives.
In other words: there is nothing good about Brexit, and I am so sorry for everyone who has to deal with it. Including my family in the UK. Including my brexiteer stepmother.
posted by mumimor at 2:43 PM on March 18 [21 favorites]
Second: the UK is a relatively big European country, but it was more so before the East expansion, and its biggest contribution was the finance sector. Which has now to a large degree moved to other countries (The Netherlands, France and Germany). The banks have no incentive to move back, regardless of wether the UK is part of the EU or not. There were some worries about European export to the UK, but there is no significant effect of Brexit, everyone has either figured out how to export to the UK or found other markets. The only loser is the UK. There are lots of articles about The City and The Docklands emptying out, but if you read the British press, it seems have to do with "working from home", rather than working in Frankfurt. I know a few bankers. They are not working from home.
Leaving the EU has been a terrible failure. I can't see how anyone can see it as a success. And most far right parties in Europe have toned down their anti-EU rhetoric as a consequence. IMO people have realized that the EU is not responsible for those national policies that they were often blamed for. Most people really like freedom of movement and freedom of trade. They are freedoms that make sense for everyone's everyday lives.
People also really like the regulations, when they think about it. Which they don't do to much. But if you ask, most people prefer their food to be regulated, and protected. They like their Parma ham to be from Parma and their Camembert cheese to be from Camembert. They hate additives.
In other words: there is nothing good about Brexit, and I am so sorry for everyone who has to deal with it. Including my family in the UK. Including my brexiteer stepmother.
posted by mumimor at 2:43 PM on March 18 [21 favorites]
Rejoining the EU on EU terms would utterly fuck Britain's money laundering operation and that's a huge chunk of the Tory party's funding and most powerful members. So the only way it happens if you get someone more radical than Starmer (Tory lite Clintonian triangulator) and a devastating political sweep (possible!)
posted by srboisvert at 2:59 PM on March 18 [15 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 2:59 PM on March 18 [15 favorites]
Aside from Britain losing their money laundering operations..
> I'm sure the UK is always welcome back, on the same conditions as everyone else.
Why? We only need one member to block rejoining, like even Hungary, right?
Afaik EU nations have lost little or nothing from Brexit. Brexit moderated euroskeptics ambitions of course, but we've still have euroskeptic parties gaining some ground in many nations, and mainstream parties adopting ever-so-slightly more euroskeptic positions. We'd have plenty of EU politicains who'd score easy points by opposing.
posted by jeffburdges at 4:21 AM on March 19 [1 favorite]
> I'm sure the UK is always welcome back, on the same conditions as everyone else.
Why? We only need one member to block rejoining, like even Hungary, right?
Afaik EU nations have lost little or nothing from Brexit. Brexit moderated euroskeptics ambitions of course, but we've still have euroskeptic parties gaining some ground in many nations, and mainstream parties adopting ever-so-slightly more euroskeptic positions. We'd have plenty of EU politicains who'd score easy points by opposing.
posted by jeffburdges at 4:21 AM on March 19 [1 favorite]
I think Brexit made euroskeptisim much smarter, in that by demonstrating that leaving sucks, euroskeptics today have turned more towards specific policy questions, where they'll find many more adherents, and alliances with non-euroskeptic parties.
There are many economic reasons the EU should not readmit a future repentant UK:
Agricultural productivity looks low by EU standards, so the UK weakens European agricultural security, which'll become ever more important, due to planetary boundaries like climate.
Average age in UK lands on the high end of the EU, but older EU nations' elites want some migration from younger EU nations. The UK would worsen demographics in France, Germany, etc. Also, the UK retirement system maybe even worse off, so they'll could become a drain.
Afaik, the UK education system looks considerably worse than France, Germany, and other northern EU countries. Just fyi, UK Times of Higher Education ranking are pure bullshit, which defacto ranks institutions higher for being English speaking.
If the UK ever wants back in, then they should be strategic:
Address their problems in their the social, health, and educational system, etc first, not so easy but maybe doable. Also, expand some industries with which people want trade or backup suppliers, like larger scale microchips, maybe solar.
An independent Scotland could join much more easily, but Scotish indepedence could forge many ties which the EU cannot so easily break. Ireland could be handled this way too.
Abuse surviving economic ties by being really annoying, but then sacrifice all those anonying behaviors if permitted to rejoin. Ideas include: (1) Halt all fossil fuel exports. (2) Lean harder into the money laundering. (3) Form aliances with BRICS nations, especially Russia. Alternatively (4) somehow convincing the Norwegians or Canadians to export less fossil fuels. These would all piss off the EU enormously, but they'd appear first on the list of things the UK gives us if they rejoin. Alternatively, similar schemes might help broker a better deal with the US.
posted by jeffburdges at 7:08 AM on March 19 [2 favorites]
There are many economic reasons the EU should not readmit a future repentant UK:
Agricultural productivity looks low by EU standards, so the UK weakens European agricultural security, which'll become ever more important, due to planetary boundaries like climate.
Average age in UK lands on the high end of the EU, but older EU nations' elites want some migration from younger EU nations. The UK would worsen demographics in France, Germany, etc. Also, the UK retirement system maybe even worse off, so they'll could become a drain.
Afaik, the UK education system looks considerably worse than France, Germany, and other northern EU countries. Just fyi, UK Times of Higher Education ranking are pure bullshit, which defacto ranks institutions higher for being English speaking.
If the UK ever wants back in, then they should be strategic:
Address their problems in their the social, health, and educational system, etc first, not so easy but maybe doable. Also, expand some industries with which people want trade or backup suppliers, like larger scale microchips, maybe solar.
An independent Scotland could join much more easily, but Scotish indepedence could forge many ties which the EU cannot so easily break. Ireland could be handled this way too.
Abuse surviving economic ties by being really annoying, but then sacrifice all those anonying behaviors if permitted to rejoin. Ideas include: (1) Halt all fossil fuel exports. (2) Lean harder into the money laundering. (3) Form aliances with BRICS nations, especially Russia. Alternatively (4) somehow convincing the Norwegians or Canadians to export less fossil fuels. These would all piss off the EU enormously, but they'd appear first on the list of things the UK gives us if they rejoin. Alternatively, similar schemes might help broker a better deal with the US.
posted by jeffburdges at 7:08 AM on March 19 [2 favorites]
(4) somehow convincing the Norwegians or Canadians to export less fossil fuels.
I'm sure Danielle Smith, Alberta's premier, will be wholeheartedly supportive and reasonable about ramping down the energy sector in alignment with the UK's unBrexit strategy
posted by elkevelvet at 9:55 AM on March 19 [2 favorites]
I'm sure Danielle Smith, Alberta's premier, will be wholeheartedly supportive and reasonable about ramping down the energy sector in alignment with the UK's unBrexit strategy
posted by elkevelvet at 9:55 AM on March 19 [2 favorites]
Maybe it ought to be called Britt-In? (instead of unBrexit)
posted by demi-octopus at 7:20 AM on March 21 [1 favorite]
posted by demi-octopus at 7:20 AM on March 21 [1 favorite]
Also In-Britt. One could make the porn while the political discussion builds.
posted by jeffburdges at 12:21 PM on March 21
posted by jeffburdges at 12:21 PM on March 21
Afaik, any one member state could block EU assention, so what could each member state extort?
Ireland could claim Northern Ireland, if that does not happen sooner. And Spain could claim Gibraltar. I doubt France wants Jersey, but likely some fishing rights changes. Actually France maybe better off if EDF can exploit the UK's right wing governments. lol
Could Scotland demand independence? Aka scuttle the deal if they do not join as seperate states?
posted by jeffburdges at 12:35 PM on March 21
Ireland could claim Northern Ireland, if that does not happen sooner. And Spain could claim Gibraltar. I doubt France wants Jersey, but likely some fishing rights changes. Actually France maybe better off if EDF can exploit the UK's right wing governments. lol
Could Scotland demand independence? Aka scuttle the deal if they do not join as seperate states?
posted by jeffburdges at 12:35 PM on March 21
Brentrance
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:33 AM on April 6 [3 favorites]
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:33 AM on April 6 [3 favorites]
Could Scotland demand independence? Aka scuttle the deal if they do not join as seperate states?
Spain really doesn't want an independent Scotland in the EU because it sets a precedent for Catalonia. At the time of the independence referendum they were dreaming up all sorts of obstacles for Scotland to join the EU.
posted by hoyland at 9:28 AM on April 7 [2 favorites]
Spain really doesn't want an independent Scotland in the EU because it sets a precedent for Catalonia. At the time of the independence referendum they were dreaming up all sorts of obstacles for Scotland to join the EU.
posted by hoyland at 9:28 AM on April 7 [2 favorites]
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posted by rory at 6:20 AM on March 18 [16 favorites]