"One definition of recession is two consecutive quarters with a declining gross domestic product. By this measure, the economy was explicitly not in recession when Bush took the oath of office on Jan. 20.It is possible - perhaps even probable - that the economy would have tanked anyway, regardless of who was elected. However I do think its fair to say that Bush's handling of economic matters - especially his misguided tax cut and the subsequent re-emergence of massive Federal deficits - have not helped matters one little bit.
According to the Commerce Department, the economy grew (albeit slowly) in both the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2000, by 0.6 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. GDP did decline in the first three quarters of 2001....
That definition of recession is a pretty blunt instrument. It doesn't indicate exactly when a recession begins, which is why economists rely on the more precise measurements of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions and expansions ... NBER has been run since 1977 by Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, an architect of the Bush tax cut and an intellectual mentor to many prominent Republican policy-makers, including Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
According to NBER's definition, the recession did not begin until after President Clinton left office. NBER's most recent "recession dating procedure" says, "A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough." In other words, a recession begins as soon as the economy starts shrinking. And according to NBER, the economy peaked and started shrinking in March 2001, two months after the Bush presidency began. "The determination of a peak date in March is thus a determination that the expansion that began in March 1991 ended in March 2001 and a recession began in March." So according to NBER, the most recent recession did not start during the Clinton administration. (Nor did the expansion begin under Clinton; rather, it launched during President Bush the Father's term.)" ::source::
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posted by machaus at 4:53 PM on January 4, 2003