Election 2004: Step Right Up and Win Some Crap

October 19, 2004 9:56 AM

Two weeks from today, John Kerry will win the popular vote by "23% or more" over George W. Bush, according to 5 Star Psychic Advice. See if you can do better than the spirit world by predicting the electoral and popular vote totals in the second quadrennial MetaFilter Presidential Contest ...
posted by rcade (127 comments total)

An array of prizes will be awarded to the person who most closely predicts the electoral vote and popular vote in the Nov. 2 election for Bush, Kerry, Nader and a fourth category -- Badnarik and others.

The winner receives $50 (from dear leader), a bunch of Democratic National Convention blogger swag (from jessamyn), and a Gerald Ford action figure (from me).
posted by rcade at 9:58 AM on October 19, 2004 [1 favorite has favorites]

Kerry 44.6% - 257 electoral votes
Bush 43.8% - 254 electoral votes
Nader 3.6% - zero electoral votes

Florida - up for grabs again. A protracted recount process is terminated by the Supreme Court, who hands Bush his second term in a 5-4 vote. Immediately afterwards, angry voters in the other 49 states march on Florida and lay waste to the entire state, killing every living thing and sowing its fields with salt.

Jeb Bush and family are rescued in a dramatic last-minute stealth mission by members of the Saudi royal family, and spirited away to live in luxurious exile until after the civil war of 2006, when Jeb returns, triumphant, and claims the throne of Emperor of the West - a throne he is sadly forced to give up only a week later when it's revealed that he has, in fact, been working as an Iranian double-agent all along.
posted by mr_crash_davis at 10:06 AM on October 19, 2004

...according to 5 Star Psychic Advice.

What kind of contest is that? The psychics already have it all locked up!
posted by spilon at 10:11 AM on October 19, 2004

I'll take postponement-due-to-[supposed]-terrorist-threat, before someone else does. So there won't be any vote totals, electoral, popular or otherwise.
posted by reklaw at 10:14 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 48.1% 257
Bush 46.9% 281
Nader 1.5% 0
Others 3.5% 0
posted by Kwantsar at 10:21 AM on October 19, 2004

For those making predictions, here's a form-based counter for you. I know there's a flash one somewhere but I can't find it. You click a state to change colors, and it does the totals for you.

If anyone finds that, be sure to post it? Thanks.

Here's my guess using states I believe each can win easily:
Kerry: 49.4% - 269 votes
Bush: 47.3% - 269 votes
Nader: 0.8% - zero electoral votes

Then more weeks of supreme court nutiness! And then they give it to Kerry.
posted by mathowie at 10:27 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 49.7% - 291
Bush 49.0% - 247
Nader 0.8% - 0
Others 0.5% - 0
posted by Pretty_Generic at 10:31 AM on October 19, 2004

In an electoral vote tie, the vote goes to the House and Senate. Which are both Republican. Once again, the popular vote would lose.
posted by fungible at 10:32 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 51.1% 300
Bush 47.3% 238
Nader .9% 0
Others 1.8% 0
posted by insomnia_lj at 10:35 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 49.2% - 274 votes (including NM, IA, OH)
Bush: 48.7% - 264 votes (including FL, WI)
Nader: 0.9% - 0 votes
Others: 1.2% - 0 votes
posted by PrinceValium at 10:36 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 44% (Stevens, Souter, Ginsburg, Breyer)
Bush: 55% (Rehnquist, O'Connor, Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas)
posted by m@ at 10:40 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: Doesn't Matter.
Bush: Doesn't Matter.

If the US House doesn't declare Bush the "winner", then SCOTUS will.
posted by eriko at 10:43 AM on October 19, 2004

In an electoral vote tie, the vote goes to the House and Senate.

No... thanks to our trusty Twelfth Amendment:

The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.

The delegation count favors Bush, but perhaps some House members will get some "will of the people" mojo and do the right thing.
posted by PrinceValium at 10:45 AM on October 19, 2004

Bush - 316 - 49.5%
Kerry - 222 - 48.5%
Nader - 0 - 1.5%
Others - 0 - 0.5%

That action figure looks so sweet...
posted by loquax at 10:47 AM on October 19, 2004

OK, I'll be the first to give Bush the popular vote, by a nose. Don't change horses in the middle of the stream, and all that.

Bush 50.2% 276
Kerry 49.1% 262
Nader 0.6% 0
posted by JParker at 10:47 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 53% 311
Bush 47% 227
Nader 1.3%
Other .7%
posted by callmejay at 10:51 AM on October 19, 2004

...I'm getting something...

...um, it's your mom...

...she, um, wants you to stop masturbating to Internet porn and get a real girlfriend...

...and, would it kill you to call your dad now and then?

And what eriko said.
posted by tommasz at 10:51 AM on October 19, 2004

(on the premise that the polls aren't reflecting the Democrat base's energy or new voters.)
posted by callmejay at 10:53 AM on October 19, 2004

(on the premise that they are)
posted by JParker at 10:57 AM on October 19, 2004

Bush 46.5 255
Kerry 49.0 283
Nader 1.5 0
Others 3.0 0
posted by Gyan at 10:58 AM on October 19, 2004

PrinceValium: Right, I typed too fast. But by the rules listed in that amendment, each state gets one vote, ie the entirety of New York gets the same power as the entirety of Iowa, population be damned. In such a contest, Bush would crush Kerry, no matter how many delegates felt the mojo.

It almost makes the electoral college seem fair.
posted by fungible at 10:59 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 51% - 291
Bush 46.5% - 247
Nader 1% - 0
Others 1.5% - 0
posted by talos at 11:08 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 49.8% 284
Bush 47.9% 254
Nader 1.4% 0
Others 0.9% 0
posted by Galvatron at 11:09 AM on October 19, 2004

This is simpler than the one we're running: we have to guess the outcome of each state. We also have to guess the vote breakdown in Maine and Nebraska (where it isn't winner-take-all) and in Colorado we have to guess both a winner and a vote breakdown, and then you also indicate which way you think will be used for an extra point. Though we don't have to guess the popular vote.

That said, I haven't finished my research yet - how late can I add to this thread? And what if I come up with the same numbers as someone else? Just wondering if I need to hurry or not.
posted by livii at 11:14 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 50.4% 283
Bush 48.9% 255
Nader 0.4% 0
Others .3% 0

Kerry will take CO, Nevada, New Mexico, PA, Michigan, Iowa, and LA

this is a help in figuring it all out....
posted by amberglow at 11:19 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry - 50.9% - 284
Bush - 48.3% - 254
Nader - .6%
Others - .2%
posted by Ufez Jones at 11:36 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry - 49.9% (289)
Bush - 47.7% (249)
Nader - 2.1% (0)
Others - 0.3% (0)
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:37 AM on October 19, 2004

The Los Angeles Times has a nice interactive Flash map, although it seems like they don't update it as often as other polling sites. (They also have a nice Senate poll tracker.)
posted by kirkaracha at 11:47 AM on October 19, 2004

Like the 2002 elections, I think this is a lot less close than people think.

Bush - 51.6% (310)
Kerry - 46.2% (228)
Nader - 1.1%
posted by b_thinky at 11:56 AM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 53.2% - 342
Bush 44.9% - 196
Nader 0.8% - 0
Other 1.1% - 0
posted by rafter at 12:15 PM on October 19, 2004

Bush 47.3% - 269
Kerry 49.3% - 269
Nader: 1.8% - 0
Badnarik and others: 1.6% - 0

Bonus round: House chooses Bush. Senate chooses Edwards. Hilarity ensues.
posted by ewagoner at 12:32 PM on October 19, 2004

Matthowie, I believed I called shotgun on an EV tie in an earlier thread.

I'll pick different percentages....

Kerry: 48.9% - 269 votes
Bush: 49.3% - 269 votes
Nader: 1.8% - zero electoral votes
posted by CunningLinguist at 12:33 PM on October 19, 2004

If anyone's wondering about the tie, I keep getting 269/269 If I take the 2000 map, and give Kerry Nevada and New Hampshire, both of which are quite possible. I think there's a snowball's chance in hell that Kerry will win Florida.

Would the Colorado votes get split along population and muck the totals up from a tie?
posted by mathowie at 12:44 PM on October 19, 2004

Entries can be posted here through 7 a.m. Eastern time on Nov. 2. Flip-flopping is allowed, so if you post an entry today and change your mind next week because of the Weekly Reader K-12 children's poll, you can post a revised prediction.
posted by rcade at 12:46 PM on October 19, 2004

Becuase I keep expecting the country to realize that Bush is a cancer on our country and the world, I think it'll be an absolute landslide.

Kerry: 99.5% - 521 votes
Bush: .2% - 0 votes
Nader: .3% - 0 votes

And no, I don't really think it'll be that one sided. I do think Kerry will win by an unturnoverable margin (sorry SCOTUS, you don't get to pick another president).

On a side note, everyone should call their local voter registration office to make sure that they are on the rosters and find out where to vote. Just in case there are some last minute machinations (that would never, ever happen).
posted by fenriq at 12:51 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 337 - 57%
Bush: 201 - 42%
Nader: 0 - 0.7%
Other: 0 - 0.3%

And monkeys could fly out of my butt.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 12:54 PM on October 19, 2004

Would the Colorado votes get split along population and muck the totals up from a tie?

Possibly. If the initiative passes and the courts OK it in time. I'm guessing if it passes, it'll be tied up in court too long and won't be used until 2008.
posted by ewagoner at 12:55 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 49.1% - 282 electoral votes
Bush 46.6% - 256 electoral votes
Nader 2.7% - (oh come on, he barely got on the ballots, and never would've if not for Republican backing, he ain't takin' no electoral votes)
Other 1.6%

New Hampshire leads the way, Nevada and Ohio follow suit. Bush takes Florida... if the clan got away with what they did in 2000, there's definitely no stopping them this time.
posted by zekinskia at 1:13 PM on October 19, 2004

Protracted (state-level) litigation in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe others(CO?). This will concern GOTV (get out the vote) efforts and counter-efforts, ballot shortages, rejected ballots, and general recounting goodness.

Nothing will be settled by Nov. 2.

The supremes will get involved under civil rights violations. They will rule but it won't effect the outcome.

Final tally will be:

Kerry 49.6% (296 includes FL, and 5 of Colorado's split)
Bush: 48.0 % (242 includes OH, Colorado's 4)
Nader: 0.6% (0)
Others: 0.4% (0)
posted by zpousman at 1:14 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry - 50.6% (292)
Bush - 46.9% (246)
Nader - 1.6% (0)
Others - 0.9% (0)
posted by Stynxno at 1:45 PM on October 19, 2004

Admit it... you were just looking for a way to slip 'quadrennial' into a sentence.

Kerry: 269
Bush: 269

Acheived through Kerry winning in CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IA (by 42 votes) (lawsuit), IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV (lawsuit), NJ, NM (lawsuit), NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI, and a split of the electoral votes in CO (with 4 going to Kerry and 5 to Bush) (lawsuit). There will also be a lawsuit FL. In all cases the lawsuits will be decided 5-4 in favor of W.

The eventual tally will then be:

Kerry: 248
Bush: 290

Popular vote:

Kerry: 49.7%
Bush: 49.5%
Nader: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%
posted by togdon at 1:51 PM on October 19, 2004

I've heard both parties are telling people in CO to vote against the splitting thing. I don't think it'll pass, but it's a great idea. I want that, and early voting, for us in NY.
posted by amberglow at 1:58 PM on October 19, 2004

Bush: 274
Kerry: 264

Bush: 49.3%
Kerry: 48.9%

Nader: tar, feathers
posted by leotrotsky at 2:17 PM on October 19, 2004

I agree with splitting a state's electoral vote, but I don't think the Colorado initiative will pass. (Also, I don't the initiative should affect the same election that the initiative is in issue in; it's changing the rules after the game has started.)

Bush won't get a percentage of the popular vote that's higher than his approval rating (currently 44% in the latest New York Times poll).
posted by kirkaracha at 2:19 PM on October 19, 2004

After a 269-269 split, with lawsuits holding off any final answer, the Etruscans will return from their two millenia of hiding brandishing swords and shields and destroy the entire upper level of the US Federal Govt. Every member of the SCOTUS, House, and Senate and all political appointees of the Executive branch will die at their hands. Cuba will invade and Fidel will become our Supreme Leader.
posted by billsaysthis at 2:23 PM on October 19, 2004

Becuase<sic> I keep expecting the country to realize that Bush is a cancer on our country and the world, I think it'll be an absolute landslide.

A cancer? I think he's just a hemorrhoid .

Anyway, it still seems too close to call, unless you are employed at Diebold. Still, I think it's interesting that an incumbant, who had the world on his side after 9/11, that John Kerry has been running such a close race.

My predictions:

Kerry/Edwards . . . . 56%
Bush/Halliburton . . . 43%
Others . . . . . . . . . . . <1 % (sadly. hopefully day we will have a viable third party) this prediction (read: 'hope for a better world') is assuming:

1) fair election, sans voter fraud (already happening in Florida, , Michigan, and elsewhere.
2) no terrorist incidents between now and the election.
3) Bin Laden doesn't turn up in China or someone else.
4) The Bambino's Curse is just a myth.
posted by jackspace at 2:36 PM on October 19, 2004

I've found out today that I can go to Miami at the beginning of December. Could you guys try & get it all sorted by then please as I'm up for a chill 2 weeks rather than a vacation in a warzone...
posted by i_cola at 2:47 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 54.7% (275)
Bush 43.5% (263)
Nader .7%
Others 1.1%
posted by maggieb at 3:25 PM on October 19, 2004

i_cola, don't worry, jackie stallone's dogs (I think there are 3) predict a bush victory by 15%. that's plenty to keep this election out of court.
posted by probablysteve at 3:26 PM on October 19, 2004

Bush gets 70% of the vote due to a trip to Baghdad he makes four days before the election. While in Baghdad, his motorcade is "ambushed". There is extensive news footage of Bush grabbing a rifle from a "fallen" soldier and firing at the "insurgents", even as other soldiers futilely attempt to pull the president to safety.

Later, members of the press claim the president shouted "Die you cheneyed bastards!" and in a speech, the president states: "How could I be the Commander-in-Chief without putting my life on the line for them, as they do for me?"

Most swing states cannot resist this siren call of manly courage. Only sissy California and D.C. remain unimpressed.

Bush: 480
Kerry: 58

In early 2005, intrepid reporters from The Daily Show, assisted by a guilt-stricken Powell, expose the fake battle, causing a controversy which leads Bush to resign. The next four years of a Cheney presidency lead to invasions of Syria and Iran and the stripping of most environmental protections. In 2008, after the botched election where Cheney somehow gets 90% of the vote, the civil war begins.

"Future events such as these will affect you in the future."
--Criswell, Plan Nine from Outer Space
posted by pandaharma at 3:36 PM on October 19, 2004

pandaharma: Wag The Dog!
posted by billsaysthis at 3:46 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 295 (49.3%)
Bush: 243 (48.2%)

Nader: 0 (1.1%)
Others: 0 (0.4%)
posted by contessa at 3:49 PM on October 19, 2004

Yep, a wag the dog style scenario, but with a more personal touch.

This scenario would make Bush the first president since Lincoln to come directly under "enemy" fire. Almost no swing voter could resist the pure hollywood thrill and the Bush action figures (Bush in a dark suit, red tie, automatic rifle at the ready) will outsell Boba Fett 3-1.
posted by pandaharma at 3:53 PM on October 19, 2004

the Bush action figures (Bush in a dark suit, red tie, automatic rifle at the ready) will outsell Boba Fett 3-1.

Umm...
posted by PrinceValium at 4:19 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 257 (49.4%)
Bush: 281 (49.9%)

Nader: 0 (0.3%)
Others: 0 (0.4%)

It's polarized strongly enough and the margin is so tight that fewer people than usual will choose to "throw away" their vote on an alternative candidate (especially on Nader). Voter registration campaigns, particularly among the yoots will bring Kerry's popular numbers within a hair's breadth of taking it. But the wisdom or our electoral college will provide W with a comfortable electoral win.
posted by gregor-e at 4:24 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 284 (49.8%)
Bushdemonpuppetfromsomebrimstoneinfectedbunghole: 253 (48.6%)
1 "faithless elector" voting against above candidate
1.2% Others (Nader, Badnarik, My Cat)
posted by moonbird at 4:27 PM on October 19, 2004

pandaharma, us sissy Californians wouldn't be stupid enough to fall for a crap faked shoot out. You see, we have Hollywood out here and we're all pretty well experts at spotting staged scenes like the one you've described.

Besides, Bush would probably shoot his own foot off.
posted by fenriq at 4:35 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 325 (52.4%)
Bush: 213 (47.2%)
Other:0 (0.4%)
Bonus:
Turnout: 65%
posted by bashos_frog at 4:45 PM on October 19, 2004

bush 51%
kerry 46%
nader and others 3%

i'm not going to try to come up with the electorial vote totals, but bush will win that, too

there will be no election fraud or controversy significant enough to change the outcome ... the third party vote will not be large enough to change the outcome

life will go on
posted by pyramid termite at 5:15 PM on October 19, 2004

Okay, more seriously:

Kerry: 287 - 49.9%
Bush: 251 - 49.5%
Nader: 0 - 0.3%
Other: 0 - 0.3%

The only EC change from 2000 I used was flipping Florida. I still await the return of the Etruscan Lords, though.
posted by billsaysthis at 5:20 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 331 (53.6%)
Bush: 207 (40.5%)
Dracula: NA (.00001)
Other: NA (6.1%)
posted by goneill at 5:24 PM on October 19, 2004

My numbers don't add up. I'm humiliated.
posted by goneill at 5:24 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry: 51.5% 289
Bush: 46.2% 249
Nader: 1.5%
Badnarik: .6%
other: .2% (including .002% write-ins for quonsar.)
posted by whatnot at 5:29 PM on October 19, 2004

EC only, cause it counts:
Bush: 265
Kerry: 273
posted by smackfu at 6:20 PM on October 19, 2004

You know, I like my percentages previously stated, but I think I will have to change my electoral vote spread, based on new information and record voter registration in Ohio's inner cities that favors the Democrats.

Kerry: 320
Bush: 218

My prediction for the battleground states is that Kerry will win Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. He will also pick up four electoral votes from Colorado.

Bush will win Arizona, Colorado (whose vote will be split 5 to 4), Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina.

I don't think the demographics of this country really are all that supportive longterm for the far right Republicans. This might be their last hurrah. The population is getting older, but it is also getting a disproportionately higher percentage of older women and minorities, whereas the heart of the neocon support comes from middle-aged males. Also, expect Democrats to concentrate on the Christian vote to a greater degree in future elections, as hot-button issues like stem cell research and gay partnerships become less of an issue.
posted by insomnia_lj at 6:49 PM on October 19, 2004

damn... blew the link for that new information.

The University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research's Ohio Poll came out today. It shows 48 percent of likely voters for Kerry and 46 percent for Bush. Six percent of those who said they are likely to vote on Nov. 2 said they intend to vote for another candidate or are undecided.

Based on this being likely voters and there being reports of massive inner-city registration of voters in Ohio, I suspect Kerry will get around 50% of the vote in the state.
posted by insomnia_lj at 6:54 PM on October 19, 2004

Now, what percentage of the vote won't be counted for one reason or another, whether dirty tricks or otherwise? In Ohio, where they've already been playing games, with paper weight and now provisional votes? (and in FL provisional votes aren't being counted if cast at the wrong precinct.)
posted by amberglow at 7:09 PM on October 19, 2004

Fenriq: You'll note I put yr state in the 'unimpressed' column so I suppose we're in agreement. 'Sissy' was the sarcastic reaction caused by reading too many right-wing blogs lately.
Rots the brain and teeth I tell ya.

I wish I could venture a serious guess but the only thing I'll state is that Badnarik will get more than 1% and a few libertarian ideas will be embraced by the Republicans in '08 as an attempt to strengthen their party. However, if they win in '08, those ideas will be rapidly discarded.
posted by pandaharma at 7:35 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry wins popular for sure with say, 50.2% to Bush's 48.7% and 1.1% split amongst the others. Bush will lose for two reasons, the price of gas is high and rising and the flu shot PR disaster.

The turnout will be 114 million. The electoral count will be 289 for Kerry and 249 for Bush, but the results from IA, NV, FL, and MO will not be known for some time if ever.
posted by euphorb at 9:10 PM on October 19, 2004

Bush: 49.7% / 288
Kerry: 48.4% / 250
Nader: 1.1%
Others: 0.8%

I don't have an opinion as to who'll win but this way I get money if Bush wins as consolation ;) (like they say, pessimists are either proven right or pleasantly surprised)
posted by abcde at 9:28 PM on October 19, 2004 [1 favorite has favorites]

Kerry:   49%   277
Bush:    48%   261
Others:    1%     0
posted by TimeFactor at 10:30 PM on October 19, 2004

Bush 278/49%
Kerry 260/47%
Nader 0/1%
Other 0/1%
posted by stuart_s at 10:43 PM on October 19, 2004

kerry takes ohio, wisconsin, pennsylvania, new hampshire, iowa - loses florida (i wonder why) and walks with the election ... buh bye george.
posted by specialk420 at 10:59 PM on October 19, 2004

Kerry 53% (279)
Bush 45% (259)
Nader 1.6% (0)
Others 0.4% (0)

?Happy Days Are Here Again?
posted by planetkyoto at 12:18 AM on October 20, 2004

kerry: 51.6% (310)
bush: 46.2% (228)
other random dudes (including people writing in jon stewart): 2.2%
posted by girlinblack at 12:40 AM on October 20, 2004

Bush: 48.2% (274)
Kerry: 51.3% (264)
Nader: 0.1% (0)
Other: 0.4% (0)
posted by mazola at 9:08 AM on October 20, 2004

After the Eastern Standard Time polls close a decision will be made as to whether the seldom mentioned November Surprise will be sprung. My prediction: the entire election will be voided as a matter of public safety and homeland security.
posted by donfactor at 10:02 AM on October 20, 2004

Kerry: 248
Bush: 290

Kerry 49.1%
Bush 48.5%
posted by cell divide at 11:07 AM on October 20, 2004

kerry: 50.1% (290)
bush: 48.2% (248)
other random: 1.8%
posted by kokogiak at 2:13 PM on October 20, 2004

If anyone's wondering about the tie, I keep getting 269/269 If I take the 2000 map, and give Kerry Nevada and New Hampshire

Heh...I was looking at the EC map about a week ago, and that's exactly the scenario I came up with. NH is looking a lot like a Kerry state based on the polls; NV will go to him as backlash against the voter registration hijinks.

So, for my prediction:
Bush 269 - 49.1%
Kerry 269 - 48.8%
Nader 0 - 1.6%
Others 0 - 0.5%
Bush wins in the HR. (If the current HR voted along party lines, it would be 30 for Bush, 16 for Kerry, and 4 states not voting because their delegations are tied. I don't think the HR will change that much in the election.)
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 9:00 PM on October 20, 2004

I'm basically going to go with the same numbers I used in 2000, although I'm giving Nader just 2% instead of 3% and splitting the other 1% between Bush and Kerry:

Bush 48.9% (256)
Kerry 49.4 % (282)
Nader 2.0%
Others .7%
posted by gluechunk at 3:48 AM on October 21, 2004

Bush 49.1% (258)
Kerry 49.2% (280)
Nader 1.4% (0)
Others 0.3%
posted by mbd1mbd1 at 8:06 AM on October 21, 2004

My EV prediction is the same as callmejay's, so I guess it'll come down to closest on vote percentage.

Kerry: 311 EV, 53.3%
Bush: 227 EV, 45.1%
Nader: 0 EV, 1.1%
Others: 0 EV, 0.5%

I'm either going to be really close or really wrong, but I've been saying all along that whoever wins will win in a landslide. As a matter of wishful thinking, I'm going with Kerry taking NH as well as the PA-FL-OH trifecta.
posted by XQUZYPHYR at 11:11 AM on October 21, 2004

Kerry 54.6% (307)
Bush 44.8% (231)
Nader .05%
posted by spork at 12:12 PM on October 21, 2004

Kerry 53% (291)
Bush 44% (247)
Nader .5% (0)

Kerry loses Ohio but picks up FL, NM, NH.
posted by plemeljr at 1:28 PM on October 21, 2004

kerry
50.42
284

bush
47.53
254

nader
1.06

others
.99
posted by raaka at 6:12 AM on October 22, 2004

Kerry-- 301 (50.1%)

Bush-- 287 (48.9%)

Nader--0 (0.7%)

Them Other Ones-- 0 (0.3%)

The Colorado Electoral vote initiative will be challenged in court if it passes, even if it doesn't affect the national election. I don't think it will-- it's running behind in the polls, and I think that many liberal types like myself who might otherwise be for it will vote against because they are loath to possibly be a part of handing another election over to the SCOTUS.
posted by Shoeburyness at 7:35 AM on October 22, 2004

Kerry : 48.6% - 284 (carries Ohio)
Bush : 49.1% - 254
Nader : 1.2%
posted by rich at 7:37 AM on October 22, 2004

Oh well. Here goes:

Kerry: 54.7%, 301 electoral votes
Bush: 44.1%, 237 electoral votes
Nader: 0.7%, zero electoral votes
Others: 0.5%, zero electoral votes

Kerry carries Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and New Jersey. Bush carries Missouri, North Carolina, and the Virginias. Here's hoping; we shall see!
posted by Songdog at 9:25 AM on October 22, 2004

I meant 237 for Bush... what was I thinking?
posted by Shoeburyness at 10:28 AM on October 22, 2004

Kerry: 228 (46.5%)
Bush: 310 (51.7%)

I go postal.
posted by RJ Reynolds at 2:02 PM on October 22, 2004

Kerry: 50%, 272 EV
Bush: 48.8%, 266 EV
Nader: 0.8%, 0 EV
Other: 0.4%, 0 EV

The EV's, if anyone cares, are based on Bush taking FL, IA and NM and Kerry with WI, OH, and MN.
posted by rusty at 9:25 AM on October 23, 2004

I'm changing my entry:

from this:
Kerry 50.4% 283
Bush 48.9% 255
Nader 0.4% 0
Others .3% 0

to this:
Kerry 50.7% 303
Bush 48.6% 235
Nader 0.4% 0
Others .3% 0

I took Ohio from Bush and gave it to Kerry, even with all the GOP shit being pulled.
posted by amberglow at 4:58 PM on October 23, 2004

Kerry: 294 (49.7%)
Bush: 244 (49.1%)
Nader: 0 (0.8%)
Other: 0 (0.4%)

Kerry loses WI and IA but wins FL with blood, sweat, and tears.
posted by Zurishaddai at 7:08 PM on October 23, 2004

Kerry 48.5% - 273 EV
Bush 48.5% - 265 EV
Nader 1.5%
Other 1.5%
posted by donth at 11:41 AM on October 24, 2004

Bush: 274 (49.9%)
Kerry: 264 (48.2%)
Nader: 0 (1.2%)
Other: 0 (0.7%)
posted by humuhumu at 7:25 AM on October 25, 2004

Oh - if I win, give the cash to the EFF. They'll need it.
posted by humuhumu at 7:25 AM on October 25, 2004

can't speculate on the electoral vote, but am desperately hoping this doesn't become a bush state.

Kerry: 49.8%
Bush: 48.9%
Nader: 1.1%
others: 0.2%
posted by casarkos at 10:47 AM on October 25, 2004

Kerry 312 EV (49.9%)
Bush 226 EV (48.1%)
Nader 0 EV (0.8%)
Other 0 EV (1.2%)
posted by spacehug at 12:12 PM on October 25, 2004

Bush will (barely) win the popular vote, but Kerry wins the Electoral College and the Presidency.

Bush   49.1% for 267 electoral votes
Kerry   48.9% for 271 electoral votes
Nader  01.1% for    0 electoral votes
Others 00.9% for    0 electoral votes
posted by tranquileye at 10:34 AM on October 26, 2004

Kerry 49.5 277 EV
Bush 48.3 261 EV

Nader gets no votes at all. Not a sausage. Bugger all.
posted by norm at 11:31 AM on October 26, 2004

Kerry: 51.3% 312
Bush: 29.7% 176
Cedric the Entertainer: 11.5%
Lost votes: 7.4%
Vladamir Putin: .1%
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 4:07 PM on October 27, 2004

Kerry 273 54.5% popular vote
Bush 265 44% popular vote
All others 0 and 1.5% popular vote

And well, we won't know for sure until November 18 after all the legal bullshit is taken care of. Bush will never concede, but bitch about it endlessly.
posted by Eekacat at 2:09 AM on October 28, 2004

Kerry 49.8 percent, 319 electoral votes
Bush 48.5 percent, 219 electoral votes

There will be grumbling, but the election will be decided the night of Nov. 2.
posted by jeffmshaw at 3:54 PM on October 28, 2004

Kerry 257 (48.3%)
Bush 281 (48.9%)
Nader 0 (1.3%)
Other 0 (1.5%)

WI and PA wake up and go blue, but FL and OH both fall to the pillaging red hordes.
posted by evinrude at 7:18 PM on October 28, 2004

Kerry 290 (49.5%)
Bush 248 (48.2%)
Nader 0 (1.4%)
Other 0 (0.9%)

I was endlessly tempted to give Kerry Florida, pushing him well over 300, but in the end I don't think he'll get it, and I don't think it will matter.

The popular vote prediction is a total guess, I have no idea how to do that.
posted by livii at 8:44 AM on October 30, 2004

Kerry: 284 (50.0%)
Bush: 254 (48.2%)
Nader: 0 (0.9%)
Other: 0 (0.9%)
posted by falconred at 1:46 AM on October 31, 2004

At 8 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 3, with most state tallies known, and with 95 percent of precincts finalized in contested states like Ohio, Nevada, and Florida I'll predict:
Bush: 264 - 48.6%
Kerry: 274- 48.9%
Nader: 0 - 1.3%
Other: 0 - 1.2%

The lawsuits and challenges in Ohio, Nevada, and Florida will be fierce with charges of impropriety on both sides. Karl Rove will not let the election die and we'll see a counter-swell campaign like the "Count and re-count, and re-count" mantra used against Gore. The election will not be over until Dec. 7 when states are required to certify their elections and submit the list of electors to the Electoral College for the Dec. 13 vote.
posted by stevis at 12:39 PM on October 31, 2004

Bush 50.5% (301)
Kerry 48.1% (237)
Other candidates 1.7% (0)

The main thing for this prediction, aside from being contrarian, is to gage the media's trending of the election as Bush as the candidate with momentum. It will be very important to look at Monday's headlines and the nightly news to see what the MSM thinks is going to win.
posted by calwatch at 3:33 PM on October 31, 2004

I'm revoking my earlier prediction in favor of this one.

EC:
Kerry: 281 (FL, PA, HI, IA, NM, MI, MN, NH)
Bush: 257 (OH, WI, NV, CO)

Popular:
Kerry: 49.1%
Bush: 49.3 %
Nader: 0.8%
Others: 0.8%
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 11:27 AM on November 1, 2004

My prediction: electoral -- Kerry 284, Bush 254; popular -- Kerry 48.8%, Bush 47.9%, Nader 1.9%, Others 1.4%.
posted by rcade at 11:47 AM on November 1, 2004

Kerry - 49.9% - 277
Bush - 48.2% - 261
Nader - 1.1%
Other - 0.8%
posted by Danf at 6:44 PM on November 1, 2004

Kerry 320
Bush 218

Kerry 50.5%
Bush 48%
Nader .75%
All others .75%

Splitting hairs with insomnia_lj
posted by edgeways at 7:39 PM on November 1, 2004

Kerry - 313, 51.3%
Bush - 224, 47.5%
Nader - 0, 0.8%
Other - 1, 0.4% (a WV elector has said he won't vote for Bush in the EC)
posted by aaronetc at 8:34 PM on November 1, 2004

This polling place has closed. All entries posted after this point should be for the 2008 presidential election. Pick the electoral and popular vote totals for Kerry, McCain, Nader, and Others.
posted by rcade at 5:07 AM on November 2, 2004

On Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2008 I predict:

Kerry: 49 - 41.0%
McCain: 489- 50.7%
Dean: 0 - 6.6%
Other: 0 - 1.7%

The Republican machine tears Pres. Kerry apart thanks to an effective campaign based on the huge deficit, we're in a pyhrric war in Iraq and Iran, and the fact that Osama bin Laden is still free. Dean attacks from the left after Congress bans campaign spending by 527 groups.
posted by stevis at 6:48 AM on November 2, 2004

Those who predicted Bush victory, by EV. Sorry if I missed someone.

274-- mazola, humhumu, leotrotsky
276-- jparker
278-- stuart s
279-- actual EV, If Bush loses Iowa
281-- gregor-e, evinrude, kwantsar
286-- actual EV, If Bush wins Iowa
288-- abcde
290-- togdon, cell divide
301-- calwatch
310-- RJ Reynolds

abcde or stuart s will be the winner, it seems.
posted by trharlan at 4:41 PM on November 3, 2004

Hey, you missed me! But at 316, I don't think I'm in the running.
posted by loquax at 6:27 PM on November 3, 2004

2022 Picks:

Ross Perot: 5%
LAZER!: 23%
Andrew Jackson's Ghost: 11%
An orange: FREE
Ashlee Simpson: 40%
Jesus of Nazareth: !!!%
posted by sklero at 2:37 AM on November 4, 2004

Uh... go Bush!

*twitch*
posted by abcde at 11:03 AM on November 4, 2004

CNN has called Iowa for Bush, so if you go by that, it's 286-252. If you want to really be on the safe side (and take into account the possibility of faithless electors), you can wait until Dec. 13, when the electors actually cast their votes; or to be really really safe, until Jan. 6, when the electoral votes are read before congress and (presumably) accepted by them.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 12:26 PM on November 5, 2004

Well, that makes me win, unless more weight is given to popular vote - rcade?
posted by abcde at 1:02 PM on November 5, 2004

Equal weight is given to your rank in the electoral vote and popular vote. So if you were 1st in one and 7th in the other, your average rank would be 4. Someone who was 3rd in both contests would rank higher.

Now I must enter all of this stuff in Excel ...
posted by rcade at 7:57 AM on November 6, 2004

2022 Picks:

are they running as senators or reps?

or are the primaries so far in advance by now and the parties so close together, that they're running in primaries for both parties, and hence in effect running for the presidency even though the election's not slated until 2024?
posted by mdn at 1:59 PM on November 6, 2004

Final (as far as I'm concerned) election results: Bush 51.04% (286 EV), Kerry 48.01% (252 EV), Nader 0.35%, Others 0.60%

The winner of the contest is abcde, who was an average of 0.46% percent off the mark in both categories (0.67% in popular vote and 0.25% in electoral vote).

His prediction: Bush 49.7% (288 EV), Kerry 48.4% (250 EV), Nader 1.1%, Others 0.8%.

Abcde will receive $50, a bunch of Democratic National Convention blogger swag and a Gerald Ford action figure.

The rest of the top five: gregor-e (0.66% off), togdon (0.73% off), cell_divide (0.82% off), evinrude (0.84% off).

Out of 79 entrants, only six predicted Bush would exceed 50 percent of the vote and 15 predicted he would receive an electoral majority of 270 or higher.

If anyone believes they have been robbed, here's the Excel data used to determine the winner. Please file suit quickly, however. I'd like to mail Gerald out to the winner this week.
posted by rcade at 8:55 PM on November 7, 2004

Thanks for tallying it all up, Rogers! I always thought Bush would win electorally, but I had Kerry ahead in the popular vote. I think the discrepancy came from the fact the voting turnout in many major cities was not what might have been expected.
posted by cell divide at 9:27 AM on November 8, 2004

Whee, thanks a lot. I'm not quite apathetic enough to say this makes up for a Bush victory, but it helps ;)
posted by abcde at 5:33 PM on November 8, 2004