4:09 p.m. EST: George W. Bush appears to hold a slight popular-vote lead 49-48 percent. Al Gore is ahead in Florida, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, California and Washington. Bush holds an edge in New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa. Minnesota and Pennsylvania are, crucially, too close to call. One freaky scenario being bandied about: the race ends in an electoral college tie, 269-269. In Senate races, Hillary Clinton is ahead in New York. Incumbents Ashcroft, Grams, Roth, Robb, and McCollum are losing. In Michigan, Abraham is tied.
THOSE BOGUS NUMBERS [Jonah Goldberg]
Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what's going on today.
As for what is going on today. Florida seems to be looking ok but tight. Still too close to call in Ohio. Etc. When I have something more concrete, I'll let ya know.
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