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November 2, 2004 11:44 AM   Subscribe

Early exit polling shows strong Kerry battleground states edge : lots of variables in play, and these numbers do not include early voting. Further, early exit polling has in the past tended to favor Republicans. This election, though, that trend may no longer hold. We'll see. Get out and vote! Vote vote vote! (more inside).
posted by troutfishing (538 comments total)

 
Well I guess I can stay home, eat pork rinds and watch Montel then.

I don't think this election will be anywhere near as close as the media is saying. Far too much groundswell against Bush.

But we'll see. I voted and didn't even get challenged on my way in although I did hold the door for a lady on a walker.
posted by fenriq at 11:50 AM on November 2, 2004


AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

Get out and vote, everybody! Vote all my worries of impending theocratic madness into the dustbin of history! Vote vote vote!

Here's a discussion on Kos, and also "Exit Polling - What You Should Know"

Also - "NRO was reporting ... their exit poll info now has Kerry +4 in Ohio"

But - as a practical matter - if you are for Kerry, than it's best to listen to this guy : "We are behind! Work even harder! Call your friends! We need EVERY vote! Things are looking desperate for us! Get out the vote! Do not stop! Get more votes! HURRY!"
posted by troutfishing at 11:52 AM on November 2, 2004


In early voting in Iowa and Florida showed about a nine-point lead for Kerry in both states, according to a story I saw yesterday. In Iowa about 27% of people polled said they'd already voted (!!) as well, so that's a good sign.

*fingers crossed*
posted by The God Complex at 11:52 AM on November 2, 2004


I guess it all depends on whether or not the results will be decided without regard to a large number of votes.
posted by lowlife at 11:53 AM on November 2, 2004


thanks, tf. somebody had to get the exit-poll thread going, and this is as good as any. post your links if you got 'em ...
posted by mrgrimm at 11:57 AM on November 2, 2004


I agree with fenriq. The surge in the number of voters this election is most likely related to the number of people wanting to get Bush out of office.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 12:00 PM on November 2, 2004


*waits for absentee ballot to arrive*
posted by eddydamascene at 12:02 PM on November 2, 2004


I thought VNS didn't exist anymore? What gives?
posted by amberglow at 12:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Where do you turn in people who shill for a canidate in the polling place?

At the local school, 3 small girls being lead from one room to another said 'vote Kerry'. When I looked for polling place Brownshirts, not one was there. Someone has to lock these 7 year olds up for breaking the law.
posted by rough ashlar at 12:03 PM on November 2, 2004


God that sucks. I hate the way people use children for that kind of crap.
posted by scarabic at 12:08 PM on November 2, 2004




God that sucks. I hate the way people use children for that kind of crap.


At least they weren't dressed up like the grim reaper and used in front of a national t.v. audience ;)
posted by The God Complex at 12:11 PM on November 2, 2004


I thought VNS didn't exist anymore? What gives?

It doesn't exist. Now it's National Elections Pool.
posted by smackfu at 12:14 PM on November 2, 2004


People often say that things are "worse than useless" when they just mean "useless," but, no -- these numbers are worse than useless. No one knows if this is propoganda, a total fabrication, a counter-maneuver, a lousy poll, statistical noise, or some combination of the above. We can't even know who these numbers might benefit -- which is why we can't even begin to dissect them rationally.

So leave them alone.

But, um, go Kerry.
posted by argybarg at 12:15 PM on November 2, 2004


so, are these numbers real? why does the site say VNS?
posted by amberglow at 12:15 PM on November 2, 2004


Don't jinx it troutfishing... Of course, this means nothing. so make sure to GET OUT AND VOTE.

The strange thing is how much Kerry has gained in the last few days. It happened in the primaries too. Right before the debates, a pundit said that Kerry had reached a tipping point. I was thinking, I wonder if that person really knows what that means. Shortly afterwards, interest in Kerry seemed to start inching upwards.

As an ancedotal story... My parents tend to vote for the Pro-Life candidate. This year, due mainly to jobs and the war in Iraq, they decided months ago to vote for Kerry, including my mom arguing with Bush supporters who would foolishly call their house.
posted by drezdn at 12:18 PM on November 2, 2004


the numbers are real if you believe with all your heart!
posted by mrgrimm at 12:19 PM on November 2, 2004


Looks like Bush has Ohio, so we're back down to FL and the other States. Mefi voters: stay home and do liberal things!
posted by ParisParamus at 12:20 PM on November 2, 2004


Where are you getting your info?
posted by agregoli at 12:22 PM on November 2, 2004


Welcome back, Paris. Can we get a statement from you regarding what you will do if Kerry wins? Please?
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 12:23 PM on November 2, 2004


A lie can run around the world internet before the truth gets its boots blog on. There is absolutely zero reason to trust these numbers, and believe me I want to.
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 12:24 PM on November 2, 2004


I can't rule out attempts to skew the numbers view a later in the day Diebold generated Republican "surge" - the only real safegaurd against that is a whopping Kerry lead.

Vote!


From "The Corner", on National Review Online :

"RUMOR [NRO Staff]
bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa
As Kathryn said, these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt. - Posted at 02:33 PM"

Best to give Kerry a clear, enourmous mandate - he need it to use against a possible Republican dominated House and Senate.

Vote Vote Vote !

Also, from NRO, this is a choice comment :
"WHAT I KEEP HEARING [KJL]
is basically what Drudge has up.
Some latest media numbers I've gotten: Bush down everywhere. -1 ini FL, -4 Ohio. Losing PA big. Losing Wi by 5. IA down 1. Don't have Mich. Down big in NH. Down small in NM. But sample is heavy female and first wave is always flaky.
"

amberglow - smackfu's is right on, from what I read, and to add to that, I also read that the actual polling is being done exclusively by the AP, by AP stringers.

mrgrimm - I usually try to avoid this sort of post, but.....why the hell not ? It's a once-in-a-lifetime chance, I hope, to see a push for putting the Ten Commandments in every school and government building, banning all abortions, reducing birth control ed. to a "just say no" mantra, targetting gays with hate speech and discriminatory legislation, pissing on the poor, exploiting the National Guard, levelling a few more Mideast nations, running up the national debt a few more trillion...... ( just for a start ) appointing Supreme Court justice who feel that all law flow from the Bible ( specifically the Old Testament )........all go down in crashing ruins with a resounding rout of GW Bush, with a Kerry victory.
posted by troutfishing at 12:24 PM on November 2, 2004


Nothing is for certain. Vote Vote Vote!

drezdn - great anecdote.
posted by troutfishing at 12:26 PM on November 2, 2004


ok. : >

*clicks heels together 3 times, says, "there's no Pres like Kerry, there's no Pres like Kerry..."*
posted by amberglow at 12:27 PM on November 2, 2004


Mefi voters: stay home and do liberal things!

OK, right after I vote, I'll be fiscally responsible, open-minded and compassionate.


PP, get it through your head, Dubya is a conservative like Vanilla Ice is a rapper and Billy Ray Cyrus is a country singer, which is to say not at all.

Go, Johnny Go! (kerry, that is).
posted by jonmc at 12:27 PM on November 2, 2004


And lest anyone get happy early, please think back about 4 years (minus about 8 hours).
posted by scarabic at 12:30 PM on November 2, 2004


Getting my info from Zoby's final numbers: 49-43, Bush. But I think all these polls are BS, rigged to keep things close so that media outlets pay money to up their ratings.

I met two Bush supports on my street in Park Slope this morning (plus, I suspect, Senator Schumer may actually not vote for Kerry...), so I'm still convinced, but less convinced that Kerry will win.

What will I do if Kerry wins? Not much; perhaps buy a radiation detector. Zealous advocacy doesn't translate into depression what what you advocate doesn't come true.

Tradesports.com is predicting a Bush win. Hope he does.
posted by ParisParamus at 12:33 PM on November 2, 2004


It makes me nervous that no-one is talking about the Diebold issue, which never got much play in the MM anyway.

Nothing to see here...only the future of your country at stake...move right along....
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:33 PM on November 2, 2004


4 years ago on MeFi:
4:09 p.m. EST: George W. Bush appears to hold a slight popular-vote lead 49-48 percent. Al Gore is ahead in Florida, Illinois, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, California and Washington. Bush holds an edge in New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Iowa. Minnesota and Pennsylvania are, crucially, too close to call. One freaky scenario being bandied about: the race ends in an electoral college tie, 269-269. In Senate races, Hillary Clinton is ahead in New York. Incumbents Ashcroft, Grams, Roth, Robb, and McCollum are losing. In Michigan, Abraham is tied.
posted by plemeljr at 12:34 PM on November 2, 2004


W isn't a conservative, he's progressive; Kerry is the conservative, and I'm not. The Left is now the conservative party. Bush wants to change the world for the better--four more years!
posted by ParisParamus at 12:35 PM on November 2, 2004


LittleGreenFootballs.com is awesome--need to get access there!
posted by ParisParamus at 12:36 PM on November 2, 2004


Oh, you're not even trying anymore.
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 12:38 PM on November 2, 2004


... plus, I suspect, Senator Schumer may actually not vote for Kerry...

Ah, I get it.

Not to worry -- PP is just having us on with some very dry conceptual humor. (Chuck Schumer not voting for Kerry! Jeebus, that's droll! Good one, PP!)
posted by lodurr at 12:39 PM on November 2, 2004


ha, I really liked amberglow's comment.
posted by Peter H at 12:39 PM on November 2, 2004


PP, Orwell is too often quoted, but damn. Isn't that the most Up is down, right is wrong post I have seen from you. And LGF, in a word, Please. I am sure in the next few hours you will be claiming that the Main Stream Media (or MSM as I am sure you will call it) stole this election from the President and delivered it to Kerry.
posted by plemeljr at 12:39 PM on November 2, 2004


Instead of tracking these wildly unpredictable and uncorrelated in-progress exit polls, is it too much to ask that we simply wait--just a few more hours!--for the American people to finish asserting their political will so that we can all gather, calmly and collectively, around our televisions to watch the networks do all the tense number crunching for us and, in due time, finally announce the result--at last!--that the recounts and lawsuits have just officially begun.

Did I just hear an ominous crack of lightning outside?
posted by DaShiv at 12:39 PM on November 2, 2004


The Left is now the conservative party.

Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is bliss.

Paris, nobody at Metafilter has been a more vocal critic of the stupider elements of the left than me. And I'd guess that on many issues I'm more conservative than you. But I still consider my self a liberal, left-leaning person. And while Kerry isn't perfect, I'll take him over 4 more years of W's warmongering, profiteering and most of all incompetence.
posted by jonmc at 12:41 PM on November 2, 2004


troutfishing, i wasn't being sarcastic. i'm grateful that somebody fell on the sword for the rest of us. i've been dying to watch PP implode for over a year now.

on preview: is it too much to ask that we simply wait--just a few more hours!--for the American people to finish asserting their political will so that we can all gather, calmly and collectively, around our televisions to watch the networks do all the tense number crunching for us

yes. it is.
posted by mrgrimm at 12:41 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm with DaShiv. All this optimistic talk is making me nervous....
posted by lodurr at 12:44 PM on November 2, 2004


PP's meandering ravings provide a wonderful balancing factor to trout's meandering ravings. Such is the yin and the yang.
posted by darukaru at 12:44 PM on November 2, 2004


What the hell is myDD.com and should I really get excited about this?
posted by xmutex at 12:45 PM on November 2, 2004


Also - NRO update :

The New Republic Online, all in a tizzy

"BEARS REPEATING [Cliff May]
The Mystery Pollster explains what exit polls are and why they need to be taken with “a giant grain of salt” (not to mention a double shot of scotch or bourbon -- and branch water, naturally).
Posted at 03:35 PM

OHIO [John J. Miller]
Another report from a guy on the ground: "Dem operatives are calling the Republican voting lists and (falsely) informing them that their precinct location has changed. They then give bogus information to the R voter."
Posted at 03:34 PM
BLAME K-LO [KJL]

One of our writers tells me: "You're so evil, if you believe some of my emails. You are singlehandedly responsible for ruining this election for everyone." GOTV so I don't get kicked out of the country. (I can only imagine the TAPPED/AS response to that.)
Posted at 03:33 PM

GO OUT AND RALLY W. TROOPS [KJL]
An e-mail:

I hope you guys can begin to correct the misimpression produced by these “early” numbers, which turned out to be a 59% female sample. I can tell you anecdotally that the hubbub about them has been hurting morale on our side. People need to go out and vote, and know that things are close and every vote absolutely matters. We will win if they vote!

Early exits=lame. Lame in terms of reliablility. And lame in terms, for our side, of what they are saying. So nix them and move on. Call your friends and family. Make sure people are making time to vote. If you think this election matters, help get it right.
Posted at 03:31 PM
MSM [KJL]

Brit Hume said on FNC a little ago that exits are looking good for Kerry but quickly warned how unreliable exits are
Posted at 03:24 PM

EXIT POLLS [Mark Steyn]
C'mon, you guys. 57-41 in New Hampshire? I'll buy you and Jonah a Connecticut River lake apiece if that pans out.
As for 60-40 in PA, much as I respect the ruthlessness of the Rendell machine, that's as credible as Saddam's last Presidential victory.
Also: re O-Hi-O. Elmer and Bugs are great but don't forget that marvelous song in Wonderful Town:
Why-oh-why-oh-why-oh Why did I ever leave Ohio?
Posted at 03:23 PM

EXITS [Shannen Coffin]
Look, folks, these are still "polls," not actual numbers. The only number that matters is the number that is certified by the Secretary of State. You still need to vote. And don't get onto KLo for posting information she receives, even if it turns out to be bad. You'd be more upset if the Corner went dark, wouldn't you? Exit poll numbers are notoriously unreliable, and many a network got skewered for relying on them in 2000. Let's just wait and see. And keep the faith.
Posted at 03:16 PM

I WAS RIGHT. [Jonah Goldberg]
I'm being told that those Wonkette numbers are absolutely, positively not exit poll numbers. They might be results of early voting "exit" polls (i.e. votes cast over the last two weeks), but they do not track at all the exits for votes cast today. That said, I'm told the exits don't look great for Bush either. Of course, that changes none of the caveats about exit polls already posted below.
Posted at 03:15 PM

WORD ON THE STREET... [Jonah Goldberg]
Things looking good for Thune. Plus four.
Posted at 03:06 PM"

_______________

"Get out the vote so I don't get kicked out of the country" - Gee, I wonder what that guy has been up to....a bit of "Sprouling", perhaps ? Posting a few thousand GOTV signs in inner city neighborhoods urging people to vote on Nov. 3 at the wrong locations ?....

Anyway, whatever happened to much heralded "Security Moms"? - weren't those suppsoed to be voting for Bush? Also, what if women are actually voting insignificantly higher numbers than men?

Also I'm suspicious, personally, that this is all an elaborate "voter suppression" gimmick designed to lull Democrats into staying home and not voting by projecting a strong Kerry lead early in the day.

Vote Vote Vote!

Voot!

mrgrimm - I actually didn't take it as sarcasm. : ]
posted by troutfishing at 12:47 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm in Ohio, and I haven't voted yet. Probably won't get to the poll until about 7. I'm trying to force myself to vote for Bush, not because I like him, but because I can't bear the thought that anything I'd do would make Sean Penn, Whoopi Goldberg, Amy Tan or Michael Moore happy.
posted by Faze at 12:47 PM on November 2, 2004


This is hilarious. I have a vision of PP with actual foam coming out of the side of his mouth. Yep, I used to be disgusted but now I'm just amused.

Everyone in the US: get out and vote. For the candidates of your choice. If you're a registered voter and you don't vote, you are cowardly, slothful, or both.
posted by Sidhedevil at 12:48 PM on November 2, 2004


Faze, just look at it like this-- with Bush out of office, most of those people won't have careers.
posted by cell divide at 12:49 PM on November 2, 2004


Oh, hurray! Our other little Internet performance artist has chimed in.

How delightful to know that you'll be doing your bit to make Arnold Schwarzenegger, Brooks and Dunn, Rush Limbaugh, and Ann Coulter happy, Faze. They're fine, fine Americans.

Why not vote for Badnarik? I mean, face it, that business about the letters of marque and reprisal is fucking awesome.
posted by Sidhedevil at 12:50 PM on November 2, 2004


Yep, I used to be disgusted but now I'm just amused.

There's some angels here: they said something about borrowing shoes from you?
posted by PinkStainlessTail at 12:51 PM on November 2, 2004


It's like Christmas in November, folks. You can bug me all you want, but you're not opening any presents until 8 o'clock so we can all get some sleep.

It was simply exhausting to package all those votes -- uh -- presents for the big day.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 12:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Bravo Faze! There is hope!
posted by ParisParamus at 12:55 PM on November 2, 2004


Mefi voters: stay home and do liberal things!

i'll be enjoying a homey, family-values evening making wedding plans with the sheep.
posted by quonsar at 12:55 PM on November 2, 2004


Faze, (cough) if Bush is reelected, it's likely pornography and more cops to hunt down pot smokers will be the new plan. It was Ashcroft's agenda prior to 9-11, but vote with your heart.
posted by Peter H at 12:56 PM on November 2, 2004


Maybe the closeness of the polls up to know is just a trick by the states and media in order to create a bigger pool to pull from for jury duty.
posted by drezdn at 12:56 PM on November 2, 2004


Will this be the all evening/all night thread?
posted by ParisParamus at 12:56 PM on November 2, 2004


[sigh] Well, at least you'll be making an honest Ewe out of her....
posted by lodurr at 12:56 PM on November 2, 2004


Slate has these numbers:

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53
posted by callmejay at 12:57 PM on November 2, 2004


I typod

That's "it's likely pornography will be targeted."

Meaning people who read it, make it, look at it online - but please Paris and Faze, vote with your heart!
posted by Peter H at 12:58 PM on November 2, 2004


6 am in Korea, and I was thinking it'd be all over except for the tears by now. Damn this spherical planet, anyway.

How about some good links for up-to-the-minute stuff for those of us who don't have American TV?
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 12:58 PM on November 2, 2004


(And what the author writes about them:

The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:)
posted by callmejay at 12:59 PM on November 2, 2004


Here, let me correct that typo for you, PP.
There is help!

You're welcome.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 1:00 PM on November 2, 2004


very good Breslin column (his last!): ... The reporters said the nation was divided. They were afraid to say anything that might upset this view. You've been had by the news industry. Not once, even after the first debate when Kerry scored a technical knockout, did they take a step and call it as it happened. "War of Words" was the closest they could come. ...
posted by amberglow at 1:00 PM on November 2, 2004


If PP can't win, at least he can show up here and make a few MeFites shit their pants once or twice by typing in stupid shit like "Looks like Bush has Ohio, moving on..."

What pathetic trolling. Wow, I never realized just how worthless your dignity is to you, PP. I don't think I can hate you much longer, I'm too far over into pity.
posted by scarabic at 1:01 PM on November 2, 2004


ah, paris... you had to ruin it, didn't you?
posted by caution live frogs at 1:01 PM on November 2, 2004


Looks like Bush won Guam handily.

Go vote!
posted by rushmc at 1:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Please ignore ParisParamus, people. Don't be stupid -- if you ignore him (unless he has something substantive to say other than 'looka mee! looka meee!') then he will go away.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 1:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Which Internet did you read this on?
posted by b_thinky at 1:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Zealous advocacy doesn't translate into depression [when] what you advocate doesn't come true.

not even when thousands lay dead. may the rectums of innocent babies receive your blessings of liberty and freedom and greet you as a liberator.
posted by quonsar at 1:06 PM on November 2, 2004


Breslin's last?! Well, at least he's not dead. That will be a rattler.
posted by lodurr at 1:07 PM on November 2, 2004


How come nobody mentions Hawaii? All the poll-closing times I'm seeing talk about Alaska, but never mention Hawaii.
posted by lodurr at 1:08 PM on November 2, 2004


Also (another NRO update, 3:51 PM) :

"Why don't you just shut the hell up for the rest of the day. There has been enough damage done already. And tell Jonah to shut up too" - Noted Republican inadvertantly executes dirty trick on self and party - A savage feeding frenzy of recrimination ensues!

"AND, TONY FROM MAINE WRITES... [KJL]

You were wrong to post that "don't get mad don't get depressed" message. You practically were conceding defeat. The amount of morale damage you did with the Republican forces across the country is immeasurable. You expect to post something like "Bush is losing in all of the battleground states, but hey, keep the faith! GOTV!". Bulls**t, it doesn't work that way. As soon as your post went up, a few people just in the corner of the building where I work came over, one person almost in tears. You should be very proud of yourself. Why don't you just shut the hell up for the rest of the day. There has been enough damage done already. And tell Jonah to shut up too - I don't need to see the stupid "I come back from lunch" post either.

OY. I'm waiting for reports that people killed their cats based on Corner posts. Posted at 03:51 PM"

3:55 PM - "....There is no cause for panic and no reason to stay home today."

Jonah Goldberg got snookered :

3:55 PM - "Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign......" Oops. What a shame it's all over town. Blame Wonkette, blame somebody, quick!

callmejay - Thanks for those (likely much more authoritative) numbers!

It was amazing how quickly and credulously - it seems - the NRO folks jumped on that first set of numbers (which I posted) and unleashed a wave of despair on the nation's GOP faithful - who then turned on the NRO staff in a fury of recriminatory accusation.

lodurr - was it because, perhaps, Hawaii was assumed to be squarely GOP ?
posted by troutfishing at 1:12 PM on November 2, 2004


Alaska's polls close two hours later (1 a.m. EST) than Hawaii's (11 p.m. EST), IIRC, so technically, they're the last, and mark the symbolic end to election day.

Alaska's three electoral votes will go to Bush, no question, so that's not much of a story, actually. Hawaii's four votes, however, were surprisingly declared up for grabs (despite otherwise being a solidly democratic-leaning state) a few weeks ago, so folks are watching us.
posted by pzarquon at 1:13 PM on November 2, 2004


Like everyone else here is 100% of the time "substantive." Listen. If Kerry does win, the power of the Mefi Circle Jerk will likely achieve Warp Factor Nine--you don't want that, do ya?
posted by ParisParamus at 1:13 PM on November 2, 2004


Hawaii polls close at 2am next thursday i think. ; >

Faze, just vote--for either. (or you can write me in if you want)
posted by amberglow at 1:15 PM on November 2, 2004


NRO, 4:00 PM morale boosting attempt -

Bush wins elementary school election, "In the student election held at my kids' Catholic school. Posted at 04:00 PM"
posted by troutfishing at 1:16 PM on November 2, 2004


If Kerry does win, the power of the Mefi Circle Jerk will likely achieve Warp Factor Nine

Better get out the Nut Balm.
posted by jonmc at 1:17 PM on November 2, 2004


the Alaska Senate race is important to watch tho--it may tip the scales over to Dem control.
posted by amberglow at 1:17 PM on November 2, 2004


I think this thread will pretty easily top the two debate threads.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 1:17 PM on November 2, 2004


If it does, PP, we'll be sure to aim at you.
posted by scarabic at 1:17 PM on November 2, 2004


The best put down............ever!

NRO, 4:16 PM :
"OUCH! [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

An e-mail:

Ah you miss the real impact of Cliff's post re who got approached for exit polls...it showed that attractive woman are not republicans...:)

Just a comment from a liberal, looking in on your own little demolition derby...
Posted at 04:14 PM"

posted by troutfishing at 1:19 PM on November 2, 2004


amberglow -- Alaskans are closer to libertarians than "Republicans", but I still think those votes are going to Bush. It doesn't change anything for them, anyway (my bet is that their marijuana iniative passes, for instance).
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 1:20 PM on November 2, 2004


scarabic, I love you.
posted by ParisParamus at 1:21 PM on November 2, 2004


Better get out the Nut Balm.

Hah! Work with cattle, much?
posted by lodurr at 1:22 PM on November 2, 2004


Let's call the election now and see if it gets picked up anywhere!
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 1:22 PM on November 2, 2004


it showed that attractive woman are not republicans...:)

See, that's why the mefi circle jerks are so much fun...
posted by jonmc at 1:22 PM on November 2, 2004


In 1984, I signed up to take exit polls for one of the local television stations. (I was in college, and broke...I think they paid me a whopping $50.00) Anyway, I was assigned to a polling place in a solid Republican suburb. I had to go out to the polls when they opened, again at lunchtime, and shortly before closing. We were instructed to ask every tenth(?) voter to fill out a a questionnaire, and then place it in a box. We had to phone in the results during the day, and then phone in the actual precinct vote totals when the poll workers were finished counting.

After lunch, I was absolutely sure that the election was going to much closer than anyone had predicted. Mondale led the exit polling by a wide margin (maybe 60-40?). The exit poll numbers, however, did not even remotely reflect the actual count in the evening, which was (predictably) heavily in favor of Reagan. Basically, the Mondale supporters far outnumbered the Reagan supporters in participating in my little survey. I assume they hated Reagan so much that they wanted everyone to know about it, including the exit pollsters. Maybe the pollsters today are able account the likelihood that more Democrats than Republicans participate in these polls, or vice versa, but my experience in this regard makes me just a little skeptical of any exit poll numbers. Of course...I probably wouldn't be sharing this story if Bush were up everywhere......oh well.
posted by Durwood at 1:22 PM on November 2, 2004


Is anyone else surprised that North Carolina is in contention (granted, Bush is leading) ?? Must be some residual Edwards appeal... still, I don't think anyone was expecting NC to be close.
posted by wfrgms at 1:23 PM on November 2, 2004




don't get all mushy on me, I told you this wasn't a date
posted by scarabic at 1:24 PM on November 2, 2004


OK, right after I vote, I'll be fiscally responsible, open-minded and compassionate.

You forget....'and a cliche'.
posted by justgary at 1:27 PM on November 2, 2004


"Republican suburb"

don't you mean shruburb?
posted by ParisParamus at 1:29 PM on November 2, 2004


the shruburbs are the ones with the most foreclosures and bankruptcies, where the local businesses left for overseas.
posted by amberglow at 1:32 PM on November 2, 2004


stavros, PP is like a traffic accident, you don't want to look but you just can't help yourself.

He no longer can affect me though, I see the troll for what he is, a sad and lonely loser making "connections" with people by inciting them to anger. How pathetic can you get?

Besides, he's on the ship that's going down. I'd expect a little screaming and kicking.
posted by fenriq at 1:34 PM on November 2, 2004


Isn't Shruburbia a town outside of New Delhi now? Where Bush has sent all our jobs?
posted by fenriq at 1:35 PM on November 2, 2004


Most of Alaska closes at midnight EST; the western half of the Aleutian Islands (roughly) are in a different time zone and close at 1 a.m. EST. (source)
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 1:36 PM on November 2, 2004


( From CNN, via MyDD, )

"Yummy Turnout Goodness"

"Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.
 
Michigan - Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush."

Also, via MyDD, Early exit polling of Fla. hispanics shows strong Democratic gains over 2000, overall greater Dem. strength :

"Early exit polling of Latinos in Florida
by Jerome Armstrong
Here's some early exit data polling of Latinos in Florida (2000 numbers are in parenthesis):


KERRY BUSH

Hispanics 46 (35) 53 (65)
Cubans 32 (17) 68 (82)

Kerry continues to lead Florida overall as well. Again, these are exit poll numbers, so doubt them, but it looks great!

Kirsten Powers an update on Florida from Kerry campaign, including:


-- Dems are running ahead of where we were in 2000 at this point in the day.
-- Bush is running behind where he was at this point in 2000
-- In comparison to 2000, by this time of day there were widespread reports of problems in the state and today that is not the case. Things are proceeding well and no widespread reports of problems.
--Touchscreen voting machines are working.
"
posted by troutfishing at 1:39 PM on November 2, 2004


The Mefi digerati have spoken. Your bits will now be archived in a database backed up on Zip one day obsolete and recycled as a public art installation.

Congratulations!
posted by omidius at 1:47 PM on November 2, 2004


Thanks for the NRO updates trout. Any evidence of low morale or panic over there? :-)

He soils his eyeballs so we don't have to.

PP's back and the average IQ of MeFi plummets.
posted by nofundy at 1:47 PM on November 2, 2004


kerry is slappin' fools
posted by lotsofno at 1:49 PM on November 2, 2004


You forget....'and a cliche'.

Try not to impale yourself on your sword of irony there, dude.
posted by jonmc at 1:49 PM on November 2, 2004


Troutfishing, excellent updates and really, really great news too!

Keep it up for those of us who have to get some work done!
posted by fenriq at 1:50 PM on November 2, 2004


Isn't shrubarb something you make pies with?
posted by drezdn at 1:54 PM on November 2, 2004


The funniest thing about the National Review site is the set of slug heds: "I don't like exit polls"; "Why exit polls are stupid"; "Exit polls are wrong, wrong, wrong" or whatever the titles of the three editorials are.

Because you really need THREE of those.
posted by Sidhedevil at 1:54 PM on November 2, 2004


Soars, you mean. You never give me credit, not even for the entertainment I provide--and education!

I've been looking at the Evil Bush sites, and they all describe being somewhat on the way to a win, but with numbers that are, vague. I would suggest holding off on getting excited over here. They say they're doing better in key states than in 2000, which means, at best, a long night for YOUS.
posted by ParisParamus at 1:54 PM on November 2, 2004


"The majority of America (the uninformed and the ones who saw Farenheiht) are going to decide this election. It makes me sick."

why do LGFers hate america?
posted by danOstuporStar at 1:57 PM on November 2, 2004


DanOstuporStar, wow, the majority of Americans are going to decide the election? That's crazy talk, just plain crazy talk.

Hehehe, LGF'ers are good for a laugh even if its just a pitying sort of half laugh.
posted by fenriq at 2:00 PM on November 2, 2004


Only five hours until Jon Stewart tells me what's going on!
posted by dirtylittlemonkey at 2:01 PM on November 2, 2004


From the supposed horrible, Dan Rather-exposing site:

#68 Praying for Help 11/2/2004 01:55PM PST


Recall that accurate exit polling requires a scientific sampling procedure whereby exit samples are carefully collected from selected precincts around the state. This data then must be fitered to eliminate oversampling of one group or another. Further, there are major demographic differences between voters that show up during normal working hours and those that have to wait until 5:00 to vote.

Further, it is my understanding that the Voter News Service that had some experience at this sort of sampling has been disbanded due to incompetence in 2000 and 2002. I understand that now the exit polling is being conducted by the AP. Recall all of the bias shown by the AP during the campaign. This may be just another example of MSM bias, sheer incompetence of the AP or demographic differences between morning voters and afternoon voters.

Take heart, overall exit polling must be taken with a grain of salt. Early exit poll results should be totally ignored.
posted by ParisParamus at 2:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Wow... all these reposting of NRO's blog postings. That's so meta.
posted by gyc at 2:05 PM on November 2, 2004


THOSE BOGUS NUMBERS [Jonah Goldberg]

Okay. I've now got a third source. Here's what I feel comfortable saying. Those numbers with Kerry leading by 20 in PA were definitely from the Kerry campaign. Whether the represented an early voting tally or just a totally non-serious collection of tallies from various dudes with clipboards is unclear. But they are entirely bogus for the purposes of understanding what's going on today.


As for what is going on today. Florida seems to be looking ok but tight. Still too close to call in Ohio. Etc. When I have something more concrete, I'll let ya know.
posted by Steve_at_Linnwood at 2:07 PM on November 2, 2004


Anyone who thinks that the most compelling way to witness this election is on television is a fool.
posted by ParisParamus at 2:10 PM on November 2, 2004


Steve, that's the second time someone's posted that tidbit here. I personally never saw any numbers showing Bush behind by 20 anywhere; I did see a couple of differently sourced numbers showing Kerry ahead in PA by 9 and 10 points, respectively. So I'm not sure what you're trying to correct.

On prev: Huh? Oh, wait -- performance art....
posted by lodurr at 2:11 PM on November 2, 2004


Hasn't National Review kind of lost its primacy as a magazine? Kind of cool that it's blog is so vibrant.
posted by ParisParamus at 2:13 PM on November 2, 2004


its, not it's.
posted by ParisParamus at 2:14 PM on November 2, 2004


How convenient of people to repost NRO right here, instead of putting us to the trouble of following links.

Actually, lodurr, Wonkette did post PA 60K/40B at one point today. I'm not sure why Goldberg felt the need to respond to Wonkette on NRO, though.
posted by Sidhedevil at 2:17 PM on November 2, 2004


Zogby's final predictions are out: Kerry 311, Bush 213 (with Nevada and Colorado too close to call.
posted by F Mackenzie at 2:19 PM on November 2, 2004


My impression of NR has always been that they are a bunch of "conservative elite" paleocons; they don't mix well with the current Conservative establishment (or with the NeoCons, for that matter), so they've lost a lot of clout. But I see they're still being Good Soldiers, nonetheless -- I'd expect of them nothing less.

Sidhedevil -- both points taken, with stress to the second: Why would anyone pay attention to Wonkette on a matter like this? Not really her core competency. You want numbers, go to a numbers site, don't get them second hand from a glorified gossip-columnist.
posted by lodurr at 2:20 PM on November 2, 2004


From the excellent Salon Warroom:

A flood of voting problems

More than 37,000 calls poured into the Election Protection hotline on Tuesday morning to report voting problems; in fact, the phones rang nonstop during a Tuesday afternoon press conference. "The state of affairs in our nation is not good," said Barbara Arnwine, executive director of the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, which is part of the Election Protection coalition. "There have been major systemic failures in our cities."

One of the largest failures seems to have taken place in New Orleans. There, according to Arnwine, due to failure of electronic voting machines, 40 precincts have yet to record a single vote. Meanwhile, she said, some polling places in Los Angeles are using sample ballots after machines broke down and they ran out of provisional ballots. In parts of Florida, polling places with malfunctioning machines are relying on absentee ballots. "The story of today has been voting machine failure," Arnwine said.

Election Protection is reporting lots of other problems as well. According to Ralph Neas, president of People for the American Way Foundation, the group that organized the Election Protection coalition, men in dark suits and "law enforcement insignia" have been intimidating voters waiting in line in Philadelphia. When a group of filmmakers organized by Joan Sekler, director of "Unprecedented," a documentary about the 2000 election, started filming them, they jumped in a van and spend away. It sounds like something out of the "French Connection," Neas said, but it's really happening. "This day has already had innumerable shameful incidents," he said.

Then there are the dirty tricks which have been cropping up all over the country. In Milwaukee today, Election Protection reports that African American voters received automated phone calls reminding them to vote on November 3. In Ohio and Michigan, automated phone calls allegedly from the Teamsters Union have been directing people to the wrong polling places. In Tuscon, Arizona, Arnwine said, calls telling people to vote on November 3 were traced back to the local Republican party.

Finally, there seem to be significant problems with provisional ballots -- ballots given to those who either aren't on voter rolls at their polling places or who don't have ID in places where it's required. In Ohio, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell issued a directive banning people who have applied for absentee ballots from voting provisionally, even if their absentee ballots never arrived. A judge blocked his order Tuesday afternoon but by then Election Protection attorneys said thousands were already turned away. In other states polling places are running out of provisional ballots or refusing to issue them.

"Provisional ballots will be to 2004 what hanging chads were to 2000," said Neas.

Unless someone wins by a landslide, it's going to be a long night.
posted by Espoo2 at 2:23 PM on November 2, 2004


The NRO crowd is slightly different from the mag crowd (I went to college with some of them). The mag crowd is still more Bill Kristol-like; the web crowd is more Ann Coulter-like.

I agree with you, lodurr. Wonkette is claiming that she has some kind of inside dish from a pal at NEP (also known as The Polling Thingie Formerly Known as VNS). Yeah, whatever, dudette. Wonkette is tiresomely Hill-happy.
posted by Sidhedevil at 2:24 PM on November 2, 2004


how dumb is Jonah "I owe my life to my mommy" Goldberg? FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH... [Jonah Goldberg]
I was sufficiently motivated by the exit polls to vote just now. One more in the "W" column!
Posted at 04:39 PM


He wasn't going to vote? WTF?
posted by amberglow at 2:24 PM on November 2, 2004


I was the third voter at my polling place.

It's gonna be a long night.
posted by kamylyon at 2:25 PM on November 2, 2004


I think Zogby shot his whatever to get one last batch of publicity. Those numbers are rather absurd.
posted by ParisParamus at 2:25 PM on November 2, 2004


Sorry if it has been mentioned before but as real returns start coming in the New York Times has a fancy dancy map that you can view the country in electoral vote block mode. (just click the "Electoral Votes" button above the map.
posted by lips at 2:27 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm thinking it's time to start warming up the tar and feathers for the current WH squatters. ; >
posted by amberglow at 2:29 PM on November 2, 2004


there's also a map at the beeb
posted by andrew cooke at 2:31 PM on November 2, 2004


Amberglow. I think you're right. Seriously. G-d help us all.
posted by ParisParamus at 2:33 PM on November 2, 2004


It is only 5pm est, and the day is already endless. I think I have sprained my thumb for hitting reload on the internets.
posted by limitedpie at 2:34 PM on November 2, 2004


The latest KLJ blurb over at NRO is very good for Kerry. Well, I wish him luck. How much does a radiation detector cost, anyway?
posted by ParisParamus at 2:34 PM on November 2, 2004


Getting my hair cut. Back later. And it looks like, to weep.
posted by ParisParamus at 2:35 PM on November 2, 2004


mr wonderchickenman - Cyberjournalist has a hefty list of election night blogs from news media - it might be useful for you & anyone else who doesn't have access to our wonderfully objective television coverage.
posted by madamjujujive at 2:37 PM on November 2, 2004


Now, i'm thinking this giant turnout, if it's new voters, may help us get the Senate back too, no? Won't most new voters not split their ticket?

*hand Paris some kleenex*
posted by amberglow at 2:38 PM on November 2, 2004


Instead of tracking these wildly unpredictable and uncorrelated in-progress exit polls, is it too much to ask that we simply wait--just a few more hours!

Can't wait! I have to get down to the schoolyard and sell some of this crack, then get over to my gay friend's wedding shower, before going to the bible-burning gun-confiscation meeting, then rush home to finish figuring out how I can pay more in taxes and practice my French!
posted by sixdifferentways at 2:39 PM on November 2, 2004


We made PP cry!!

is baby Jesus next?
posted by dness2 at 2:39 PM on November 2, 2004


Getting my hair cut. Back later. And it looks like, to weep.

* G R I N *
posted by Pretty_Generic at 2:39 PM on November 2, 2004


5:22 PM : The "Dixville Notch Factor"

"The Corner" commentator Mark Steyn suggests Texas might be in play? WTF ?

".....I'm more concerned about those hard numbers from Dixville Notch: Bush 19 votes, Kerry 7. In 2000, it was Bush 21, Gore 5. If the Democrats maintain that 40% vote increase nationally, Texas is in play. " Posted at 05:22 PM

"KEEP IN MIND [KJL]
I'm hearing not-encouraging things re 4 p.m. poll numbers. I gotta stress (and not because I am graping at straws, because it is true): these do not include absentee and early voters. Sopmething to bear in mind.
Posted at 05:21 PM

MORE BC INSIDERY THOUGHTS [KJL]
"[T]he race isn’t going to be the kind of victory any of us hoped for; but equanimity is a good trait to have at times like this. Things looked worse four years ago, at this point. Look, I expect it’ll be close; and no one here can assure a win by any means. But the internals matter, and as best as I can find out, in an honest assessment of the facts, they are looking pretty good to us. Better than the early exit polls have led people to believe. I'm giving you what I believe is the honest to goodness truth about what the people seeing the most reliable information, such that it is, are thinking - Posted at 05:11 PM

This is what straight GOP shooter tells me....Everything is in play, and even leaning good for the GOP in Senate races. ....I hear things look good in Alaska Senate race. GOP is alive in Colorado Senate. Hear Mel Martinez is a little behind in Florida, but all preelection internals suggested he was ahead...GOP source happy about how NC, Ga. Ok, Alasaka are looking......the sky is not falling."

Things look good in NC, Ga. Ok, Alaska, eh ?

And what are "internals" anyway ?

I sent an email to "The Corner" telling them not to panic but, rather, to pray and repent.

It's always good to pray and repent - regardless of politics. So that's sound advice.

Here's their email, if anyone else wants to comfort them with an email telling them not to panic, that it'll all be OK, and that they should pray and repent, and worry less about politics - maybe take up gardening or volunteer at a homeless shelter....

thecorner@nationalreview.com
posted by troutfishing at 2:43 PM on November 2, 2004


Don't forget about the 2004 MeFi vote contest, which was over yesterday. Can't wait to see who wins.
posted by mathowie at 2:46 PM on November 2, 2004


If Kerry wins Texas, I will walk buck naked down Commerce street at noon tomorrow.
posted by sixdifferentways at 2:47 PM on November 2, 2004


if it comes to that, please post pictures.
posted by dness2 at 2:48 PM on November 2, 2004


"Getting my info from Zogby's final numbers"

My *REAL* voters kick your likely voter's ass!
posted by insomnia_lj at 2:50 PM on November 2, 2004


Getting my hair cut. Back later. And it looks like, to weep.

I read this as "getting my back hair cut later," at which point I had briefly concluded that PP had descended into an entirely new level of madness. Or just, perhaps, hirsuteness.
posted by scody at 2:50 PM on November 2, 2004


Oh come on now, PP hasn't gone anywhere, he's sitting there in his dirty skivvies grinning from ear to ear at all the attention.

amberglow, good point and a really nice side dish to this big old plate of humble pie that's being warmed up for the GOP.
posted by fenriq at 2:51 PM on November 2, 2004


It's gonna be a long night.

Yes it is. I worry about Bush winning, but I've been more worried that the process would malfunction again, repeating the events of 2000. So far, news outlets have been releasing worrysome reports of tampering, intimidation, dirty tricks and machine malfunction. What are the odds that they'll be able to call the election tonight? Will someone win or will they "win?"
posted by elwoodwiles at 2:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Joe Trippi just announced on MSNBC that the blogosphere is reporting the same Exit Poll data they have at the network. (and that they're not going to report until later).
posted by amberglow at 2:51 PM on November 2, 2004


PP, I'm curious if any part of your fealty to GW is forged or eroded by his fuckwit sensibility toward stem-cell research? Have you ever experienced or been close to someone struck down in their 30's or 40's with a degenerative neurologic disorder? Try living in their skin for even a minute as they contemplate withering in front of their children and seeing their family destitute, and then having to watch W and his Westworld spouse speak of the irresponsibility of offering false hope to these people. As someone who has had a taste of this personally and professionally, hope, false or real, is all that gets you out of bed in the morning. We're being held back from a medical breakthrough on a par with antibiotics and immunizations because of the addled logic of a mid-life convert to Christianity and the scrotal grip of a few million fundamentalists, none of whom will likely lose a moment's rest as they bleed the system for care for their diabetes and heart disease but who can't stomach seeing rational science help the sickest among us who came by their fate through no fault of their own.

Forgive the rant. I'm not having a very good few days.
posted by docpops at 2:52 PM on November 2, 2004


Slate's new numbers:

The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:

The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:

Florida
Kerry 52
Bush 48

Ohio
Kerry 52
Bush 47

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 48

Pennsylvania
Kerry 58
Bush 42

Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 48

Wisconsin
Kerry 53
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 57
Bush 42

New Hampshire
Kerry 58
Bush 41

Maine
Kerry 55
Bush 44

New Mexico
Kerry 49
Bush 49

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 49

Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50

Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54

North Carolina
Kerry 47
Bush 53
posted by callmejay at 2:52 PM on November 2, 2004


hand Paris some kleenex
hey! careful with that!
(we might need it for the circle jerk later...)
posted by andrew cooke at 2:55 PM on November 2, 2004


Docpops, I think that GWB was already a Christian, seeing as he was raised as an Episcopalian. So his "mid-life conversion" was to whatever he is now (Baptist?).

Sorry, but it is a pet peeve of mine when people use the word "Christian" as though it did not include Episcopalians, Presbyterians, Methodists, Catholics, the Eastern Orthodox, and other non-Evangelical sects.
posted by Sidhedevil at 2:56 PM on November 2, 2004


that NRO link is spin gold, so i'm posting it again.

Much more importantly, our data also suggests what Drudge is reporting: the early samples are heavily weighted toward women (58 percent), which would of course give an artificial advantage to Senator Kerry. That imbalance will not hold up. Indeed, among men we are winning 53-45. To put it another way: if we’d one down in states with a sample that is heavily female, we’re in good shape with the overall population. To put it a third way: it looks like the first exit polls are a reflection of the composition of the electorate, not how the president is performing.

how about a fourth way: maybe the men aren't voting?
posted by mrgrimm at 2:56 PM on November 2, 2004


well jay, those would be some very encouraging, nay, KICK-ASS numbers. Just hope they hold up as reality!
posted by Windopaene at 2:57 PM on November 2, 2004


If Kerry wins Texas, I will walk buck naked down Commerce street at noon tomorrow.

Well I did my part here in Austin!
We're hopin for a blue blip on a red shape.
posted by Peter H at 2:59 PM on November 2, 2004


where are those slate numbers from? i still see the old ones at http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/
posted by andrew cooke at 2:59 PM on November 2, 2004


They just went away when I reloaded... weird.
posted by callmejay at 3:01 PM on November 2, 2004


I swear I did not make those up.
posted by callmejay at 3:02 PM on November 2, 2004


All the biggest swing states are going Kerry, it seems. (and wasn't it that you can't win without at least 2 out of 3 of them?)

and what mrgrimm said--i think Rove's "strategery" failed. Repubs are staying home, it seems like so far.

and docpops: help is on the way--Kerry said he'll reverse the ban right away.
posted by amberglow at 3:02 PM on November 2, 2004


mr wonderchickenman - Cyberjournalist has a hefty list of election night blogs from news media - it might be useful for you & anyone else who doesn't have access to our wonderfully objective television coverage.

Thanks, mjjj!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Looks like this is going to be the big fat election threadTM after all. I could be wrong, but I was also wondering what would start it.

Any posts count estimates? I say 1250.
posted by NewBornHippy at 3:04 PM on November 2, 2004


Perhaps there are better places out there to see results, but I have this on my list.
posted by limitedpie at 3:04 PM on November 2, 2004


I wonder if Rhenquist will retire right after the election is over, so Bush can appoint someone?
posted by amberglow at 3:06 PM on November 2, 2004


Kerry taking lead on futures market according to Bloomberg article.
posted by zeikka at 3:07 PM on November 2, 2004


I voted. Encouraged everyone I could to vote. A few un-registered aquaintances never would register, but I tried. Changed the mind of at least four Bush supporters by helping them see past the Swift Boat nonsense and similar propaganda. One relative that was pro-Bush decided not to vote at all, not the result I wanted. Stayed home from work and have been calling people. Still calling people. Still trying to get people to vote. My state may be a lost cause but nobody thought Mark Pryor would win a senate seat either. =)
posted by bargle at 3:10 PM on November 2, 2004


My absentee ballot came in the mail today.

Paris, where's a good place to get a haircut? I'm in Prospect Heights, disenfranchised and shaggy.
posted by eddydamascene at 3:12 PM on November 2, 2004


bargle, you're why we're winning (you, and a great animosity towards Bush, of course) -- thanks for all the work, everyone who GOTV--it's paying off! : >
posted by amberglow at 3:13 PM on November 2, 2004


Fox News reporting that Bush has won Indiana, Kentucky and Georgia.
posted by drstrangelove at 3:14 PM on November 2, 2004


Wait a minute--the polls are still open in those states, aren't they?
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:15 PM on November 2, 2004


They close at 7, so Fox is using the exit poll numbers.
posted by amberglow at 3:17 PM on November 2, 2004


they're also republican strongholds (at least, ev has them as bright red).
posted by andrew cooke at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2004


bargle - a sincere thank you for the work that you're doing!
posted by Juicylicious at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2004


Maybe they're also trying to help GOP turnout in other states?
posted by amberglow at 3:18 PM on November 2, 2004


I sent NRO a couple of emails. The last one read :

"You know, I wouldn't encourage lying or anything, but could you be less emphatic with the truth ?

It'd be bad if you guys suppressed voter turnout so much that we lost the Senate.

Then, all hell'd break loose without Ashcroft to keep the lid on....all the shit would come bubbling to the surface.

Don't just run around like headless chickens. DO something. Anything.....Please."


I don't think that's so very very mean and - it's been a long, rough 4 years. And a very rough month.

______________

NRO's own (certainly slanted towards GOP) numbers :

Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

Senate Thune +4 (SD) (vs. Daschle)
Castor +3 (FL) (vs. Martinez)
Burr +6 (NC)
Bunning +6 (KT)
Coburn +6 (OK)
Demint +4 (SC)
Salazar +4 (CO) (vs. Coors)

Posted 5:28 PM"
________

callmejay - ThankYouThankYouThankYouThankYou

So it might not just be a win for Kerry - it might be a rout.

New Mexico, maybe Nevada at play....a FOUR POINT lead in Florida ? That's more than I ever would have hoped for.

It's looking as if it may shape up as uncontestable.

Let's hope and pray...

Also, send emails to major Republican bloggers - like NRO ( at thecorner@nationalreview.com ) reminding them that panicking is always the WORST thing to do in a crunch, and scolding them (gently) for undermining the GOP morale with all of their naysaying.

elwoodwiles - That's a good reason to stay up all night and blog obsessively, to work the media "refs" and prevent funky calls from growing into media certitudes.

Remember, there are hundreds of thousands of people - citizens, lawyers, activists - holding down the bottom end this election, and despite voter supression BS and various other shenanigans, the Dems seem to have fielded the necessary extra margin to overcome the baseline level of GOP dirty tricks. So, we'll just have to trust those folks to prevent any sudden shifts in vote counts while we monitor things in blogworld and stay ready for any and all possible attempts at fraud.

bargle - my compliments. It's because of efforts like yours that Mark Steym is worrying about Texas.

Two years ago - in the gloom of the 2002 election near- debacle, who woulda thunk ? The Democrats have finally, and in the nick of time - I hope - reawakened from their long slumber to discover that they can fight back.
posted by troutfishing at 3:19 PM on November 2, 2004


Hey, Fox just backtracked...
posted by drstrangelove at 3:22 PM on November 2, 2004


the Dems seem to have fielded the necessary extra margin to overcome the baseline level of GOP dirty tricks.
And that's going to be key, i think, in stopping post-election GOP shit too.
posted by amberglow at 3:23 PM on November 2, 2004


the NRO page is drifting towards bush....
posted by andrew cooke at 3:24 PM on November 2, 2004


Some relatively obvious links for other furriners that might be useful :

Technorati's Political Attention Index may be helpful.
NYTimes map.
BBC Map.
CNN map.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:25 PM on November 2, 2004


What do you mean the page is "drifting towards bush", Andrew Cooke?
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2004


Update : of those three maps I just posted, the NYTimes map has begun to show results just a few seconds ago.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2004


the Dems seem to have fielded the necessary extra margin to overcome the baseline level of GOP dirty tricks.

As a competitive tennis player for most of my life, that's the only way you can beat an opponent who's hooking you. Gotta keep the thing inside the lines by a foot or two. I don't want to jinx this thing (even though I maintain that I ain't superstitious), but I don't think this is going to be as close as anyone has predicted.
posted by psmealey at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2004


sorry - i meant that their comments suggest that polls are drifting towards republicans. drudge has updated ohio to even, someone else is saying similar things etc etc.
posted by andrew cooke at 3:27 PM on November 2, 2004


Drudge update: TIGHTENING: KERRY, BUSH TIED IN OHIO SHOWDOWN, EXITS; KERRY +2 IN FLORIDA
posted by Zurishaddai at 3:28 PM on November 2, 2004


sidhedevil:

Thanks for the clarification. Your comment was not pedantic in the slightest and was illuminating. I have a tendency to think of religious fundamentalism as "Christian", but can claim to be no more theologically enlightened to these nuances than the gentiles that are incredulous that I do not wear a phylactery during my morning ablutions and that, were I inclined to self-abuse, could eat pork without guilt.

I stand corrected.
posted by docpops at 3:30 PM on November 2, 2004


Yes. They are looking for polls that are closer. Understandable, of course. The numbers are going to keep going back and forth until all of tonight's voting is concluded (and for a while after that!)
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:30 PM on November 2, 2004


Remember, pride comes before of lions.
posted by Pretty_Generic at 3:31 PM on November 2, 2004


Split timezone states will start to come in now, but it's only .1 of precincts reporting.
posted by amberglow at 3:33 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm watching Fox, and Brit Hume was just doing this amazing thing of laughing under his breath whenever he discussed the Democratic Party or John Kerry. It's remarkable. I encourage everyone to tune in, just for the spectacle.
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:34 PM on November 2, 2004


intrade shares of Bush are dropping like rocks - go to Markets (middle tab at top)
posted by mrgrimm at 3:35 PM on November 2, 2004


Yes, as stavros says, the NY Times has begun to post some returns and it looks like they're listing Bush with 67% of the popular vote right now.

If that doesn't teach you to ignore early numbers, I don't know what will.
posted by scarabic at 3:36 PM on November 2, 2004


But that's with 10,000 voting in one of his popular states.. Lookie, now it's 58%..

Besides, just because you win the popular vote, doesn't mean you win overall ^_^
posted by Mossy at 3:38 PM on November 2, 2004


Joe Scarborough is spinning badly for the GOP, and doesn't look happy, on MSNBC. : >
posted by amberglow at 3:40 PM on November 2, 2004


scarabic....the NY Times is telling me he leads with 56.68%.....i guess that was a quick drop.
posted by protocool at 3:40 PM on November 2, 2004


that's New Hampshire, right? i see early returns with Bush up 61-36.
posted by mrgrimm at 3:40 PM on November 2, 2004


that morph between the electoral vote view and the geographical view on the ny times map is fucking cool.
posted by oog at 3:40 PM on November 2, 2004


I wonder if Bush will develop another boil like he did last election? Maybe this one will be bigger!
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 3:41 PM on November 2, 2004


incidentally, why do you have the colours the wrong way round? shouldn't the more-left party be red and the more-right party be blue? that's how it is in the uk and red is globally associated with the left (the people's flag is deepest red...). now i know democrats are hardly socialist, but still....
posted by andrew cooke at 3:43 PM on November 2, 2004


strangelefty, only problem is that boil grew legs and became the vice president.
posted by fenriq at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2004


I say we find those 92 Nader votes and fucking kill them.
posted by keswick at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2004


Ohio at 7:30 is the first big prize i think. (i wonder how long polls will stay open past then, tho--there are still people on line waiting to vote there)
posted by amberglow at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2004


Right now on Fox, you can see a bunch of old white guys in suits trying to explain this all away, and Juan Williams looking scornfully at them. It's fun. Brit Hume's little under-his-breath giggle is too much.
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:44 PM on November 2, 2004


The UK and the world are not the same thing! Actually, both the Republican and Democratic parties' official colors are red, white, and blue--this business about tying Republicans to red and Democrats to blue began with the 2000 election.
posted by Sidhedevil at 3:46 PM on November 2, 2004


why do you have the colours the wrong way round? shouldn't the more-left party be red and the more-right party be blue? that's how it is in the uk and red is globally associated with the left

The blue/red distinction in the USA is based on the prevalent term "redneck" out here, which is synonymous with "conservative."

I kid! I kid!
posted by scarabic at 3:47 PM on November 2, 2004


callmejay - they still haven't reappeared, but it now says: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.

on preview - no, but the red flag is universal!
posted by andrew cooke at 3:47 PM on November 2, 2004


Here are the 6 PM exit polls :

Kerry Bush
PA 53   46
FL 51   49
NC 48   52
OH 51   49
MI 46   54
AK 47   53
MI 51   47
NM 50   49
LA 43   56
CO 48   51
AZ 45   55
MN 54   44
WI 52   47
IA 49   49

Compare to these 4 PM exit polls

-----------NV  CO  NC  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  WI
Kerry     48  46  49  54  50  50  51  50  51
Bush      50  53  51  45  49  49  47  48  46
posted by troutfishing at 3:47 PM on November 2, 2004


Pat Buchanan on MSNBC just said Bush has to win Ohio and FL to win electorally, even tho he may lose the popular vote, due to extra heavy Dem turnout in NY and CA. They know they've lost the pop vote, i think.
posted by amberglow at 3:47 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm gonna cross-reference with a thread from earlier today about what's happening here in Ohio. We Ohioans are sure we deserve all of this attention. Luckily, midwestern narcissism is short lived.

Background:
voting, campaigning & 527s part 1
voting, campaigning & 527s part 2

Anyway, the polling place where my wife was volunteering with MoveOn has had a consistent 2 hour wait all day. At 4pm the names of those who had voted to that point were posted. The actual turnout among their targetted infrequent voters was 30% over their goal by the time she got to L. It's looking like they are going to double or tripple their targeted turnout rate when it's all over, at least in this district.

I don't see our polls closing until 11pm. By 7:30 the wait will be 3 or 4 hours.
posted by putzface_dickman at 3:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Gee.

Why don't we have a Presidential Election every day?

"Shalom. There are five bottles of Jim Beam under my desk. Two are empty and three are full. Come on over."
posted by kaibutsu at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2004


Based on the reports I've heard today of turnout here in LA, Bush could be crushed in the popular vote, even if he manages to pull out an electoral victory.
posted by mr_roboto at 3:52 PM on November 2, 2004


Wow, the 4 PM exit polls were horizontal while the 6 PM ones went vertical. This is good!
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 3:53 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm curious if anyone else thinks GW will be quietly relieved if he loses? I don't mean that in a cynical or mean-spirited way, just that he seems like he would be happier in a different element. It almost seems to me that his cabinet has more at stake, agenda-wise, than Bush does, and that maybe some small part of him would feel relief at not having to face another four years. He certainly won't be without offers for motivational speaking and writing jobs. I got to thinking this based on a comment on CNN that mentioned both GW and JK had made it clear they wanted the decision made without contention. So maybe a modest majority of the popular vote will give W the clout he needs to tell the RNC to back off and he can put this behind him.

Or maybe i am, as they say, "adorable".
posted by docpops at 3:55 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm curious. Just how bad would the blowback be if Bush lost the pop vote by a wide margin but won the electoral? I'm not saying we'd storm the Capitol or anything...but I bet it would be fugly.
posted by TeamBilly at 3:55 PM on November 2, 2004


docpops: "You're adorable!"

also: for those of us without a TV, thanks for keeping this thread busy! i love hearing all this crap!
posted by Stynxno at 3:57 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm not saying we'd storm the Capitol or anything...

I think storming the Capitol would be a perfectly reasonable reaction. But I don't think -- thank dog -- that it's going to be necessary.

Early hours (and days), though.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:58 PM on November 2, 2004


also: for those of us without a TV, thanks for keeping this thread busy! i love hearing all this crap!

Election 2004: The Revolution will happen on MeFi.
posted by NewBornHippy at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2004


Let's not get ahead of ourselves here... with OH and FL, the big prizes, within 1%... which includes mostly enthusiastic voters, things could change in those states in a hurry. Just sayin'
posted by cell divide at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm watchin CNN, and I have to say that their election display is quite large (to put it mildly).
posted by jsonic at 4:00 PM on November 2, 2004


i wish you had one, stynx--Pat Buchanan is all but stating that Kerry's gonna win on MSNBC, and Scarborough's hangdog face is hysterical.

They're calling VA closer than expected--too close to call.
GA for Bush.
IN for Bush.
KY for Bush.
VT for Kerry.
posted by amberglow at 4:01 PM on November 2, 2004


docpops, that's actually not that far fetched, there were some comments back during the debates that asked the same question. Could ShrubCo be "phoning it in" in the expectation that he'll lose?

It would be two fold. One, it would leave a monstrous mess for the Democrats to clean up. Two, it would give the GOP four years to find another horse, preferably one that doesn't muck up the language, dodge war when he could fight, rush to war when he can command it and then never, ever, ever admit he's screwed up.

I can see some GOP mouthpieces trying to push that one over on the people. I don't buy it but I can see it happening.
posted by fenriq at 4:02 PM on November 2, 2004


Only one more hour and I can leave work and start drinking. Throat is getting so dry.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 4:02 PM on November 2, 2004


Troubles in Florida. I'm surprised how little chatter there's been about the voting machines, and the craptastic Diebold MS Access voting lameware. Did I miss something, or are they actually being used?
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:03 PM on November 2, 2004


No, I think Bush and Co. have an agenda that they would like to keep pushing.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 4:04 PM on November 2, 2004


megapundit is showing called states.
posted by andrew cooke at 4:04 PM on November 2, 2004


They're being used, and so far, given the enormous turnout, not as many probs as feared, i've heard, stav. We'll see what the vote counts are tho.

KY votes for homophobic bigotry, and passes their anti-gay amendment.
posted by amberglow at 4:05 PM on November 2, 2004


How can Britt Hume still be broadcasting? He's been dead for months, from the looks of him.
posted by psmealey at 4:07 PM on November 2, 2004


so why is it called ky jelly, then? ;o)
(sorry: gin + tonic...)
posted by andrew cooke at 4:07 PM on November 2, 2004


the White House has gotten disappointing internal polls, MSNBC says.
posted by amberglow at 4:07 PM on November 2, 2004


i wish you had one, stynx--Pat Buchanan is all but stating that Kerry's gonna win on MSNBC, and Scarborough's hangdog face is hysterical.

I have one, it's just being shipped from storage. and wont' get here till tomorrow. but thanks for the updates!

/me hits reload again
posted by Stynxno at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2004


All of the TV networks have called Vermont safely for Kerry. There is some debate about whether or not Georgia will actually wind up being a Bush win for some reason (since they don't explain what they base their projections on, it's kind of hard to tell).
posted by Sidhedevil at 4:08 PM on November 2, 2004


The Repubs are already whining about absentee ballots not being counted yet in FL, according to MSNBC.
posted by amberglow at 4:11 PM on November 2, 2004


What is up with that megapundit link? How can they --or by extension, the 'major networks' -- be calling states with 0.0% reporting?
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:12 PM on November 2, 2004


Just heard some Fox News guy saying "If Bush loses, he can blame the media..."

lol
posted by joecacti at 4:12 PM on November 2, 2004


psmealey, damn! That was a close one!

'Course, I said he looks like he died five or six YEARS ago. But yeah, someone should let him know its okay to lie down and play dead.
posted by fenriq at 4:12 PM on November 2, 2004


and PA too--absentee ballot hearing in the am.

stav, they use the exit polls, and the dirt they hear.
posted by amberglow at 4:13 PM on November 2, 2004


Fox just called VA and SC "too close to call". Weren't VA and SC projected as safe wins for Bush?
posted by Sidhedevil at 4:14 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm calling Oregon for Kerry.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 4:14 PM on November 2, 2004


/pours another tequila shot
posted by muckster at 4:15 PM on November 2, 2004


Can someone tell me why California has so many electoral votes?
posted by Mossy at 4:16 PM on November 2, 2004


According to Electoral Vote.com, VA was "Barely Bush" but SC was Strong Bush.
posted by headspace at 4:16 PM on November 2, 2004


yup, Sidhe : >

giant population, Mossy.
posted by amberglow at 4:16 PM on November 2, 2004


The BBC map is showing some new data. Very cool zoom on that one too (try clicking on a state).
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:17 PM on November 2, 2004


35 million people in CA, and 20 million (almost) in NY.
posted by amberglow at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm going to sleep in fifteen minutes (in Hungary) and when I wake up in eight hours I hope the BBC world service will bring me the news I have waited four years to hear.... the news that made PP cry...

I voted overseas...
posted by zaelic at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004


A guy in the crowd behind CNN is holding a "Vote or Die" sign, but it folded in the middle and just says "DIE".
posted by jsonic at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004


Can someone tell me why California has so many electoral votes?

Because an assload of people live there?
posted by Cyrano at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004


NBC / OREGON LOCAL STATION FEED for those without a tv

no commericals so if you don't hear much noise but see video of a polling line taken from a copter, that's commerical time.

http://www.kgw.com/

thanx for finding it for me cmonkey!
posted by Stynxno at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004


the White House has gotten disappointing internal polls, MSNBC says.

I've heard from a friend of a friend that the NYTimes has heard from the Bush campaign that things are not looking good for the Bushies and that they've been preparing the president for the worst.
posted by ursus_comiter at 4:19 PM on November 2, 2004


re: Texas

For the past month, Austin has had lines of ambitious early voters. It's been awesome, almost all of them have definitely seemed Democrat, but this is a very young and liberal city.

However, all across the state have been long lines. The Texan Republican, and I'm being stereotypic but honest, will likely not stick it out in line. I've never known a pissier complaining bunch than Texas Republicans. It's a state BUILT on convenience. There have been long lines for early voting and 2hour waits today. Texan Republicans are a selfish impatient bunch (look at their driving!) I would piss myself if Texan went blue, but based on line wait and Texan's stereotypic lack of patience, Democratic resolve might just take it! I know friends who waited up to three hours to vote, and that was on the first day you could!

Alright, GF is at the door, off to the party stuff I moaned about yesterday. Excited!
posted by Peter H at 4:20 PM on November 2, 2004


MegaPundit is calling Florida with .2% of precincts reporting:

B: 53.4% - Kerry: 45.5%
posted by scarabic at 4:23 PM on November 2, 2004


ursus, wouldn't the "worst" be that he loses AND is indicted for war crimes?
posted by fenriq at 4:23 PM on November 2, 2004


BBC reports the First Kerry win . . .Vermont. No surprise there, but hey - nice to see a blue state to go along with the three red ones.
posted by sixdifferentways at 4:24 PM on November 2, 2004


I would piss myself if Texan went blue, but based on line wait and Texan's stereotypic lack of patience, Democratic resolve might just take it!

Sounds highly optimistic - and I doubt anyone really wants to see me naked - but I do love America!
posted by sixdifferentways at 4:28 PM on November 2, 2004


Reuters calling Virginia too close to call, I'm starting to feel confident about a Kerry win.

Here comes Ohio....
posted by fullerine at 4:32 PM on November 2, 2004


let me tar and feather him before the warcrimes tribunal starts, ok? ; >

Ohio prediction coming up: MSNBC says ..... too close to call. : <
NC amd VA too close to call too
W VA and SC too early to call.
posted by amberglow at 4:32 PM on November 2, 2004


So for the people in the U.S. following the election on TV, which channels are you following? I'm mainly watching MSNBC since I find it the most entertaining.
posted by gyc at 4:33 PM on November 2, 2004



MegaPundit is calling Florida with .2% of precincts reporting:


That's not a "call": when a state is called, it'll be colored in dark red or dark blue. Pink and baby blue are for early precinct results.
posted by mr_roboto at 4:33 PM on November 2, 2004


me too gyc--i'm liking Buchanan (who has no love for Bush, but is a true-blue Repub)
posted by amberglow at 4:34 PM on November 2, 2004


BG and EX also too early to call. Looks like FQ could go to...nope, too close too call. Stand by, folks.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 4:34 PM on November 2, 2004


Is anyone else surprised that North Carolina is in contention (granted, Bush is leading) ?? Must be some residual Edwards appeal... still, I don't think anyone was expecting NC to be close.

1. Bush lost some of the Evangelicals (such as my Father-In-Law) with the war in Iraq.

2. The young voter turnout is huge, especially here in the triangle where we have a numerous colleges (Duke, NCU at Chapel Hill, NC State, Peace, Meredith, et al.) There were 50,000 new registered voters in Wake County which is more than 10% of the 415,000 previously registered and I suspect many of these were college students.

3. No Excuses Early Voting-- We have been able to vote in person or by ballot for a month now and the return numbers were very impressive: 982,579, 3 times the number that voted early in 2000.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 4:35 PM on November 2, 2004


those numbers on slate at last!
posted by andrew cooke at 4:36 PM on November 2, 2004


electoral-vote.com says kerry 262, bush 261.

no way this is ending tonight.
posted by adampsyche at 4:38 PM on November 2, 2004


West Virginia called for Bush
posted by gyc at 4:40 PM on November 2, 2004


electoral-vote.com hasn't been updated since this morning, and if you read the fine print, the close count is based on new Fox News polls...
posted by jsonic at 4:40 PM on November 2, 2004


As entertaining as I found the 2000 election to be, please let it end tonight. Please.
posted by gyc at 4:40 PM on November 2, 2004


Larry King just asked how can Nader have 0% if he has votes.
posted by mss at 4:42 PM on November 2, 2004


no, i've seen different numbers there all day.
posted by adampsyche at 4:43 PM on November 2, 2004


How the hell is West Virginia called for Bush with 0% of precincts reporting? Anyone?
posted by quasistoic at 4:43 PM on November 2, 2004


that number has been on ev all day. i don't think it's changing with exit polls. but it's a useful map to compare results to, because anything different indicates a swing.
posted by andrew cooke at 4:43 PM on November 2, 2004


oh, didn't see your later message. but are you sure? i've been watching it pretty constantly.
posted by andrew cooke at 4:45 PM on November 2, 2004


It's really annoying that the Ohio SoS website doesn't list the percentage of precincts being reported. That really makes the site useless.
posted by gyc at 4:45 PM on November 2, 2004


"The Votemaster" didn't put up this morning's update until around 11am EST because he was still dealing with DoS attacks.

So yes, electoral-vote.com did change once today. For the daily update.
posted by quasistoic at 4:48 PM on November 2, 2004


Frankly, our (Ohio's) Secretary of State is sort of useless too.
posted by ltracey at 4:50 PM on November 2, 2004


Ralph Nader's spokesman Kevin Zeese said this afternoon at the Anacostia public library in Washington, D.C.: 'I know who won the election.' Nader was asked: 'Who?' and he answered: 'John Kerry.'"

Nader added that he looks forward to liberals raising their issues with Kerry as they did with Bush. War Room wants to know where Ralph is getting his info!
via salon
posted by Espoo2 at 4:53 PM on November 2, 2004


Look closely, adampsyche. e-v.com isn't even counting NJ. Why?

"Finally, Strategic Visionn (R) says New Jersey is a tie. Yesterday I had an Eagleton-Rutgers poll showing Kerry up by 8% and today there was a Quinnipiac University poll showing Kerry ahead by 5% in New Jersey. But the rule still holds: most recent poll wins, and that is Strategic Vision. If you don't like this result, award Kerry another 15 electoral."

His latest-post wins strategy has been a good way to keep tabs for the duration, but he's not updating with exit polls or results until later. So let's just give those 15 to Kerry and call it 277-261 and continue hoping we'll be able to call in a night tonight.
posted by Fourmyle at 4:53 PM on November 2, 2004


Where does the line form to smack Bush in the ass on his way out the door?
posted by fenriq at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2004


Oops, that should be "ON" the ass. Damn, that "in" probably scared him badly!
posted by fenriq at 4:56 PM on November 2, 2004


I've been watching NBC (before the local no-talent assclowns took over for news...God help me but I *hate* the Channel 5 anchor here) and the graphics under Brokaw's head keep coming up more in favor of Bush than Kerry.

Gotta change the channel before I start shouting incoherently at the TV again.
posted by TeamBilly at 5:00 PM on November 2, 2004


cnn got Ill for Kerry now ... big surprise
posted by edgeways at 5:04 PM on November 2, 2004


BTW, MegaPundit's just been updated. Bush has 66 electoral votes to Kerry's 78!

Let's go, go, go! I want to see a nice comfortable lead by the time I get home!
posted by fenriq at 5:05 PM on November 2, 2004


Now it's getting exciting. Megapundit has been an unpleasant, worrisome pink for the past few hours, but has just gone blue in a big way. Thank god this is my slack day at work.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:06 PM on November 2, 2004


Whoops.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:06 PM on November 2, 2004


Here's the Florida DoS: Bush has a 13% lead with 12.6% reporting.
posted by Zurishaddai at 5:07 PM on November 2, 2004


But the Florida county results (DoS) give plenty of reason for hope—mostly hicksville, otherwise Kerry leads.
posted by Zurishaddai at 5:08 PM on November 2, 2004


BBC Just showed a line of people still waiting to vote in Philly, they stretched round the block a couple of times!

This is good news for Kerry, bad news for my night's sleep.
posted by fullerine at 5:11 PM on November 2, 2004


Zurishaddai, you make a good point--early precinct results tend to be from rural areas (in the town I grew up in, for instance, it took about 40 minutes to count all the votes by hand).
posted by Sidhedevil at 5:13 PM on November 2, 2004


megapundit just went blue.
posted by andrew cooke at 5:14 PM on November 2, 2004


No real surprises so far, except for some reason the election officials didn't seem prepared for the large turnout, which is silly. I know hindsight is 20:20 but jeeze a blind fruit seller in El Salvador could have told you it was going to be busy. Should have been better prepared... What's your prediction on voter turnout? I say 75%
posted by edgeways at 5:16 PM on November 2, 2004


double whoops :o(

florida isn't looking good.
posted by andrew cooke at 5:16 PM on November 2, 2004


How can Britt Hume still be broadcasting? He's been dead for months, from the looks of him

they've exumed the hume!
posted by glenwood at 5:17 PM on November 2, 2004


andrew cooke: ah, i knew diebold & jeb would come through.
posted by keswick at 5:18 PM on November 2, 2004


I know kos is partisan, but he's also a great number cruncher - doesn't this look good:

6 p.m. Exit polls
by kos
Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 22:36:35 GMT

Getting close to real results. But these are the last batch of exits.

Grain of salt and all that...

Kerry Bush

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AR 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49

Also: thank f*** matt upgraded before this thread!
posted by dash_slot- at 5:19 PM on November 2, 2004


"Going Blue" aside, Megapundit contines to list Bush ahead in Ohio and Florida.
posted by scarabic at 5:19 PM on November 2, 2004


Given that several states that Bush was expected to win (SC,Miss, VA) are still close to call and that no states that Kerry was expected have not come through, it seems clear that Kerry is running above expectations.

Translation: Kerry will clean up, when the dust settles. I predict a Kerry win by 60-80 electoral votes.
posted by notme at 5:20 PM on November 2, 2004


yeah :( but ohio has no precincts, so is probably noise)
posted by andrew cooke at 5:21 PM on November 2, 2004


David Frum on bbc Newsnight is looking ve-e-ry glum...
posted by dash_slot- at 5:21 PM on November 2, 2004


Well, I did my part for NJ about an hour ago.
posted by adampsyche at 5:22 PM on November 2, 2004


For the visually-oriented like myself, the CBC has a nice graphic going on, too.

Also: thank f*** matt upgraded before this thread!

Amen, brotha.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:22 PM on November 2, 2004


Is somebody keeping track of Dan Rather's bizarre similies? Every election he seems to seize the opportunity to go all apeshit folksy on our ass.
posted by jonmc at 5:26 PM on November 2, 2004


Thanks adampsyche - nice work!

And also thanks to Matt. This thread is a breeze on the new server. It would have been a lot more painful before.
posted by scarabic at 5:30 PM on November 2, 2004


Florida counts don't mean much without results from Palm Beach, Miami-Dade and Broward county.

Played hooky from work today and volunteered with the Kerry campaign in Miami. Aside from Little Havana, where I spent part of the morning, Kerry turnout appeared to be very good in the precincts I visited. Kerry workers here are very charged up.

There's revolution in the air, I tell you. Haven't felt this kind of vibe going around since 1968.
posted by groundhog at 5:34 PM on November 2, 2004


sheesh, I know it's early but Obama is just whacking Keyes in the IL Senate race... Keyes must be getting good at loosing big-time
posted by edgeways at 5:34 PM on November 2, 2004


thanks, groundhog (i keep reloading the page and staring at the same numbers...)
posted by andrew cooke at 5:35 PM on November 2, 2004


Did anyone see Giuliani on ABC just now? He totally backtracked... "If Kerry wins, we have to stand behind him."

Totally different from what I've heard him saying all along.
posted by sugarfish at 5:40 PM on November 2, 2004


I did, sugarfish. Thought the same thing. Very odd to give any quarter at this stage of the game
posted by pardonyou? at 5:43 PM on November 2, 2004


What does Rudy know that we don't? So far everything has gone according to form.
posted by psmealey at 5:45 PM on November 2, 2004


Is somebody keeping track of Dan Rather's bizarre similies? Every election he seems to seize the opportunity to go all apeshit folksy on our ass.

Don't taunt the alligator before you cross the creek.
posted by Secret Life of Gravy at 5:46 PM on November 2, 2004


They have a thread for the Dan Ratherisms over at DU. My favorite so far is "Let's just kiss the map for a second before we go to break" but someone posted that Rather said "The race is swinging like Count Basie". Wish I'd seen that one. Hoo-wee, we're tearing up the pea patch! There goes your mother with her eye out! I say, what a shocking bad hat! Gordon BENNETT!
posted by Sidhedevil at 5:47 PM on November 2, 2004


Well, whoever wins 2 of OH, PA and FL pretty much has the race.. and Kerry is looking pretty strong even right now in PA and OH and even possibly in FL depending on later results. A win in all three and you might as well hit the sack, it's over, so as mentioned before the Repubs have to be a little worried, It's not over... Bush could still win, but I am "cautiously optimistic" for Kerry
posted by edgeways at 5:48 PM on November 2, 2004


Run for the hills! The NYTimes says Nader has an infinite number of votes!

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:49 PM on November 2, 2004


Rudy's always been a bit like Claude Rains in Casablanca. He sense the way the wind's blowing. Welcome back, you poor tortured Catholic boy.
posted by jonmc at 5:50 PM on November 2, 2004


They just said on NBC that the race might not even be fully counted for another 3 days, because of absentee ballots. They said that the Republicans are saying that even if it looks ike a kerry win, we have to wait a few days to count the 100,000 absentee ballots.
posted by Espoo2 at 5:50 PM on November 2, 2004


In FLORIDA. Yeah, forgot that part.
posted by Espoo2 at 5:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Giuliani's security company is a cash cow with an incredibly distinguished client list. He knows what side his bread is buttered on.

However, in an earlier interview, he said that the most important part of this to him was loyalty to the President in light of what the President did for Giuliani and NYC in general. The impression I got was that he felt he owed Bush, political rhetoric aside.

Rudy's a pro, and he'll back the office if not the man inside it.
posted by TeamBilly at 5:52 PM on November 2, 2004


> What does Rudy know that we don't? So far everything has gone according to form.

Must we look at everything through Illuminati-conspiracy glasses? Possibly he just expects a close election that could go either way, and plans on continuing to be an American even if the other guy wins?
posted by jfuller at 5:54 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm NaN, I'm a free man!
posted by NewBornHippy at 5:55 PM on November 2, 2004


starvos: That is why I told myself not to watch the election returns.

I'm glad I voted though. Indiana went red for the president and govenor, but Rep. Baron Hill is hanging on by 1%.
posted by KirkJobSluder at 5:56 PM on November 2, 2004


You know, I have been a life long fan of the Red Sox and I was thrilled when they won the World Series. That being said, one thing I learned from all of those years of following them is that the game isn't over until the last out.

I am reserving any feeling of celebration until the last lawsuit is settled. To do anything else would be to curse my candidate.
posted by Joey Michaels at 5:57 PM on November 2, 2004


The NYT map is really behind. It has a nifty animation that switches between "geography" and "electoral votes" though, so who cares about the data?
posted by scarabic at 5:58 PM on November 2, 2004


I've been amusing myself by comparing the results as they come in to the polls at electoral-vote.com (the "averaged" version, since I think that's probably more accurate). In states where a large portion of the results are in, it looks pretty close to what the polls predicted, but Bush is doing a little better.

So to judge by those numbers, it's not looking good for Kerry at this point. I wouldn't bet on it until Ohio comes in though.
posted by sfenders at 5:59 PM on November 2, 2004


The impression I got was that he felt he owed Bush, political rhetoric aside.

Yeah, I saw that, but owed him for WHAT, for goodness' sake?? He didn't do anything that any other of the 350 million Americans wouldn't have done if they'd happened to be President. And a great deal less than many would have.
posted by rushmc at 6:01 PM on November 2, 2004


The NYT map is really behind.

Yeah, the gadgets are going wonky on the BBC and NYTimes sites -- in the case of the NYTimes, it's mostly just the bits on the lower left, though. The CBC one seems to be keeping up pretty well...
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:01 PM on November 2, 2004


When do the results from all those people that voted early get reported? Have they been counted already?
posted by sfenders at 6:02 PM on November 2, 2004


Oops. Shoulda quoted the first bit, there.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:02 PM on November 2, 2004


there's another thread in parallel with this, in case people are wondering where some have gone to.
posted by andrew cooke at 6:02 PM on November 2, 2004


is nyt behind or just more cautious about declaring winners? it just went backwards on illinois.
posted by andrew cooke at 6:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Yeah, I saw that, but owed him for WHAT, for goodness' sake?? He didn't do anything that any other of the 350 million Americans wouldn't have done if they'd happened to be President. And a great deal less than many would have.

I found myself wondering the same thing, but nevertheless, a relationship between Bush and Giuliani has been symbiotic. I dunno, like I said, it was just an impression I got. Who knows how accurate it is?
posted by TeamBilly at 6:04 PM on November 2, 2004


How fucking stupid of a network to call Ohio: it's still 50-50. leaning Bush.
posted by ParisParamus at 6:10 PM on November 2, 2004


Weird... the Ohio SoS site listed Cobb with 14,000+ votes and now it's just gone back to zero.
posted by gyc at 6:10 PM on November 2, 2004


a whole new crop of states, still nothing new... It'll be like a freaking basketball game only the last few mins are worth it.
posted by edgeways at 6:10 PM on November 2, 2004


megapundit: florida just went light blue!
posted by jsonic at 6:11 PM on November 2, 2004


It'll be like a freaking basketball game only the last few mins are worth it.

To me it's like a closed chess game. The pieces are still all on the board but one side is resuffling their pieces to build up an unstoppable attack, and at the very end break open the game and checkmate the king.
posted by gyc at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2004


Must we look at everything through Illuminati-conspiracy glasses?

Yes, because that's exactly how I was viewing it.... through my illuminati-conspiracy glasses. Except, they're still half full with IPA, so I can't see all the way through them.
posted by psmealey at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2004


I don't know how they're going backwards on Illinois -- the last numbers I've seen has Kerry at like 70% here.
posted by sugarfish at 6:13 PM on November 2, 2004


woo-hoo! vamos florida!
posted by andrew cooke at 6:14 PM on November 2, 2004


Keeping the chess metaphor, you have to control the center. IE - Ohio.
posted by TeamBilly at 6:15 PM on November 2, 2004


it was coloured blue at the nyt then went back to purple. don't know why either - posted a question at crooked timber about what the stats might be, but no-one has answered.
posted by andrew cooke at 6:15 PM on November 2, 2004


That was a typo on the SoS site; they clearly entered the number of Kerry votes in Lake County into the space for Cobb.

jfuller, I think that psmealey was surprised that Giuliani was so pessimistic about Bush's chances so early in the voting. If you see "Illuminati conspiracy" in that, let me know what kind of eyesight vitamins you're taking.
posted by Sidhedevil at 6:17 PM on November 2, 2004


err...nevermind florida just went red again, i'll stop commenting on unsure states.
posted by jsonic at 6:17 PM on November 2, 2004


Weird, you're right.
posted by sugarfish at 6:17 PM on November 2, 2004


andrew cooke, I think what you are telling us is that whoever's doing the website updating for the Times is just too itchy on the keyboard fingers.
posted by Sidhedevil at 6:18 PM on November 2, 2004


hey... MO is strangely competative... so if K picks up Mo, Pen, NH and NM he doesn't need Fla or OH
posted by edgeways at 6:20 PM on November 2, 2004


Odd. The CSPAN map app is identical to the CBC one.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:20 PM on November 2, 2004


Y'know, I did have a flash of optimism earlier. If Bush does win and manages not to get us all killed in another four years, we get another shot with Dean. I hope. I pray. Because I like him better than Kerry.

Yes. Indeed. If Bush wins....

"Help us, Obi-Dean Kenobi, you're our only hope...."
posted by TeamBilly at 6:22 PM on November 2, 2004


gusanos reaccionarios!
posted by andrew cooke at 6:23 PM on November 2, 2004


But... if Bush wins we'll get a stacked SCOUS, and no matter what Dean did there will always be that
posted by edgeways at 6:24 PM on November 2, 2004


Y'know, I did have a flash of optimism earlier. If Bush does win and manages not to get us all killed in another four years, we get another shot with Dean. I hope. I pray. Because I like him better than Kerry.

McCain v. Dean: Now there's two candidates both sides can be truly excited about.
posted by gyc at 6:25 PM on November 2, 2004


Y'know, I did have a flash of optimism earlier.

Take it easy, Fredo. The night is still young.
posted by psmealey at 6:25 PM on November 2, 2004


The latest from The Corner at the NRO:

EARING FROM A FEW BUSH CAMPERS [KJL]
Florida: Overperforming our 2000 result along the i-4 corridor; winning Orange County and Pasco County, both of which we lost last time; we over performed our vote goal in Democrat Broward county
Posted at 09:21 PM
posted by gyc at 6:27 PM on November 2, 2004


Take it easy, Fredo. The night is still young.

Yeah, I know. But I tend to think in contingencies...
posted by TeamBilly at 6:27 PM on November 2, 2004


By the way, I don't get the Fredo reference. Never seen The Godfather all the way through.

Did I just say that out loud?
posted by TeamBilly at 6:32 PM on November 2, 2004


I think that was supposed to be Frodo.
posted by scarabic at 6:33 PM on November 2, 2004




Fredo... you know, they middle son, between Santino and Michael. He used to panic a lot.

Fuck, I'm old.
posted by psmealey at 6:37 PM on November 2, 2004


> Bush nearing 170. Its a flood of RED!

Isn't the EC deceptive?
posted by NewBornHippy at 6:39 PM on November 2, 2004


Bush nearing 170. Its a flood of RED!

Which is, I think, what one would expect as the returns come in from points westward, at least until we hit the Pacific coast.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:39 PM on November 2, 2004


dand, the megapundit light blues and reds are going to flip flop (heh heh) a whole lot more before the night is done. The others aren't showing anything all that earth-shattering yet.
posted by psmealey at 6:40 PM on November 2, 2004


Apparently Bush just called a press conference in the white house......
posted by Espoo2 at 6:41 PM on November 2, 2004


red: compare it with ev. so far everything matches, so no worries.
posted by andrew cooke at 6:42 PM on November 2, 2004


yeah, it's all read, because it's basically all of the south that is counted the most at this point
posted by adampsyche at 6:42 PM on November 2, 2004


Bush to announce capture of bin Laden...developing...
posted by rushmc at 6:45 PM on November 2, 2004


Damnit, Bush better have his press conference before Jon Stewart comes on.

Wouldn't it be awesome if he pulled off a mask and it turns out he was like, Godzilla?

Bush, I mean.
Well, that would work with Stewart, too.
posted by sugarfish at 6:45 PM on November 2, 2004


Bush to announce capture of bin Laden...developing...

More like US Forces flattening (and reinstalling) Fallujah, I'd guess.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:47 PM on November 2, 2004


OT: I guess I assumed the Fredo thing had permated the lingua franca more than it actually has over the years. In high school, we used to refer to the guy that was all gung ho when it camed to planning, but panicky when it came to execution, whether by dint of parents or cops, as "Fredo", an homage to the jittery character played by John Cazale in Godfather I and II (whom you also may remember from Dog Day Afternoon and the Deer Hunter).
posted by psmealey at 6:47 PM on November 2, 2004


Tabs are my friend tonight.

Maxthon (IE based) has an "election graphic" group of tabs open. Auto-refresh on each tab is set to 3 mins.

Firefox can prolly do the same thing.
posted by dand at 6:48 PM on November 2, 2004


Crikey, people are still voting in Ohio! Lawyers are contesting a judicial decision to allow queuers to vote on paper because the lines are so long.

Wacky.
posted by dash_slot- at 6:49 PM on November 2, 2004


(Hey, Maxthon-buddy!)
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:49 PM on November 2, 2004


Man...I live in Ohio and I can only hope we go blue. Sadly, I've only lived in Cleveland, which will most likely go blue, and Athens, which is a fairly liberal college town. i don't understand thing "red state" thing.

I'm just happy my 14 and 12 year old siblings are arguing with their friends about why Kerry should win *grin* Brain-washing is fun!
posted by Be'lal at 6:50 PM on November 2, 2004


NYTimes has Kerry up in electoral votes for the first time.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Quick query: what does GOP stand for?
posted by Mossy at 6:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Wow, thank you Mr Bush, that was a worthwhile press conference...not.
posted by dash_slot- at 6:52 PM on November 2, 2004


Who were those scrubs that were sitting with the Bush twins?
posted by adampsyche at 6:53 PM on November 2, 2004


Grand Old Party.
posted by sugarfish at 6:53 PM on November 2, 2004


Um, I'm a bit confused. Where is C-SPAN getting there numbers for Florida? The Florida Department of State has different numbers with Kerry catching up.
posted by KirkJobSluder at 6:53 PM on November 2, 2004


giant orange penis
posted by afx114 at 6:53 PM on November 2, 2004


that was it? (the press conference, not the penis)
posted by andrew cooke at 6:54 PM on November 2, 2004


yeah, when i saw the bushies press conf, i thought, "who the fuck are the indie rockers?"
posted by afx114 at 6:54 PM on November 2, 2004


what does GOP stand for?

God's Obnoxious Pricks?
Gank Our Pants?
Greed Over People?
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:55 PM on November 2, 2004


George Orwell's Party.
posted by psmealey at 6:56 PM on November 2, 2004


Now now people, be nice.
posted by Mossy at 6:58 PM on November 2, 2004


greed over principle?
posted by andrew cooke at 6:59 PM on November 2, 2004


Ghastly Overlord Pussies?
posted by interrobang at 7:02 PM on November 2, 2004


What happened at the Press Conference?
posted by drezdn at 7:03 PM on November 2, 2004


whole lotta nothing
posted by edgeways at 7:05 PM on November 2, 2004


Nothing. Literally.
posted by TeamBilly at 7:05 PM on November 2, 2004


OT: Name the only actor who never appeared in a film that wasn't nominated for Best Picture?

John Cazale. 5 for 5. Godfather I & II, Dog Day, Deer Hunter and the Conversation. 6 for 6 if you count archival footage in Godfather III. How he wasn't nominated for Godfather II... The scene where he bitches to Michael about being passed over, genius. I mean Talia fucking Shire gets nominated?

Sorry, needed a break from hearing "too close to call."
posted by chris24 at 7:10 PM on November 2, 2004


tradesports

PRESIDENT.KERRY2004
John Kerry to be elected as United States President 55.6 58.0 58.2 151636 +11.2

PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004
George W Bush is re-elected as United States President. 41.2 42.0 42.0 1228366 -11.0

That looks good for Kerry to my eyes.
posted by dash_slot- at 7:10 PM on November 2, 2004


nope. i think we're fuxored. i'm off to bed.
posted by andrew cooke at 7:15 PM on November 2, 2004


Don't give up now, dude.

*cues "Gonna Fly Now" in winamp*
posted by jonmc at 7:20 PM on November 2, 2004


Wait, David Ortiz has just hit a home run.
posted by Stan Chin at 7:22 PM on November 2, 2004


Daily Show is pretty on tonight...

So what happened to the terrorist attacks Ashcroft promised?
posted by drezdn at 7:22 PM on November 2, 2004


From National Review's Blog:
FROM A FRIEND AT A CABLE NETWORK [Ramesh Ponnuru]
"The mood just became sour. Everyone thinks Bush just swept Ohio, FL, and will be re-elected decisively based on readjusted exit polling."
Posted at 10:08 PM
posted by ParisParamus at 7:26 PM on November 2, 2004


Yep, that is the new strategy at NRO--"Everything's great! Don't worry about those annoying 'votes'!"

I like that the new NRO mantra is "The absentee ballots in Florida will fix everything." It's certainly possible, but it's kind of ironic.
posted by Sidhedevil at 7:35 PM on November 2, 2004


So why does http://www.electoral-vote.com attract so manny DoS attacks?
posted by edgeways at 7:41 PM on November 2, 2004


Did anyone notice? Kentucky was just called for Bunning (Republican incumbent). The Democrats' chances of winning a Senate majority are shot, although there's a dim chance they might tie.
posted by grrarrgh00 at 7:41 PM on November 2, 2004


Four More Years!
posted by ParisParamus at 7:47 PM on November 2, 2004


Yes, four more beers! Exactly.

I'm not giving up the ghost or anything, but I think it's becoming clear that this thing won't be settled tonight.
posted by psmealey at 7:48 PM on November 2, 2004


I thought it would be different by now...I thought there would be a groundswell. I mean, it really is about what America *is*, right? And if Bush wins, it means I have misjudged EVERYthing! And maybe I'm being premature and things are being called too early, and it's too early to be pessimistic. But really, I thought it would be different by now... But then the Red Sox won after it looked really bleak, so there's still hope, right? Besides, even if Bush is re-elected, the indictments will come soon...
posted by airgirl at 7:48 PM on November 2, 2004


This is already a major blow for the horrid CNN-Springsteen-Hollywood-NY Times Bloviating Complex. THANK G-D!
posted by ParisParamus at 7:50 PM on November 2, 2004


PA to Kerry! Here comes the comeback!
posted by xmutex at 7:54 PM on November 2, 2004


someone say major blow?

*nostrils flare*
posted by quonsar at 7:55 PM on November 2, 2004


ParisParamus, you will be whining out the other side of your mouth when OH and FL are called for the blue. The Bush-leaning precincts are pretty much reported, but the Kerry-leaning, more populous precincts, are between 10% and 30% reported.

Remember how you predicted that Bush would win the Presidency and the New York Yankees would win the World Series?
posted by Sidhedevil at 7:56 PM on November 2, 2004


PA to K, my guess Fl to B. A battle for Oh, and hopes MI votes blue
posted by edgeways at 7:57 PM on November 2, 2004


no way! msnbc just called california for kerry! that's crrraaazzyyy!!!!
posted by afx114 at 8:00 PM on November 2, 2004


PA was never recently in Bush's column, deluded one.
posted by ParisParamus at 8:01 PM on November 2, 2004


Looking at Megapundit now, Fla. - at 89% done -52/47 is going to Bush. Ohio is 36% done, also at 52/47 to Bush. We won't hear Ohio tonight, maybe not Fla. either.

That's not looking so good for Kerry, with some pundits saying the remaining counties in Fla. aren't particularly Dem.

Can Kerry win if he loses Ohio and Florida?
posted by dash_slot- at 8:02 PM on November 2, 2004


when OH and FL are called for the blue

Uh, call me crazy, but with 88% reporting in FL and a 5-point lead for Bush, I think the only reason not to call it is extreme caution over last year. FL is gone. MI is not looking good. OH is not looking good. Anyway, this is my one chance to troll PP into making a bigger ass of himself, so I'm going to be pessimistic.
posted by scarabic at 8:02 PM on November 2, 2004


MSLSD, as Mark Levin says....
posted by ParisParamus at 8:03 PM on November 2, 2004


Pennsylvania was considered to be "in play" as late as last night, PP.

Arkansas, apparently, is now back in play.

Scarabic, it's not 88% of the VOTES, it's 88% of the PRECINCTS. The precincts that haven't reported in are the most populous. Similarly with Ohio--people are still voting in the most populous precincts.
posted by Sidhedevil at 8:04 PM on November 2, 2004


Ak, NH, Wi, MI, MN, NM, IA. Would give K a 270 count if he lost Oh and Fl
posted by edgeways at 8:09 PM on November 2, 2004


kerry just surged to a ten point lead in MI, with 27% of precincts reporting. it'll be late before they get done counting in detroit, the most populous areas and a democratic stronghold.
posted by quonsar at 8:11 PM on November 2, 2004


A local reporter here in Portland, Oregon, reporting live from the Bush/Cheney '04 party headquarters at the Marriott, complained of sodas that cost $3.25. She said she will be sticking with the drinking fountain. I couldn't agree more.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 8:13 PM on November 2, 2004


Wow. Kerry just took a huge leap with CA.
posted by dobbs at 8:14 PM on November 2, 2004


Gar. I can't watch this anymore. I will just have to check things in the morning.
posted by sugarfish at 8:14 PM on November 2, 2004


Ass of myself? Moveon.fucked. Soros.depressed. And fuck you, Mr. Springsteen. I rejoice at the prospect of the amoral/immoral Left. But in fairness, it is a disgrace that John Kerry should win even one state: he is a loathsome excuse for a politician.
posted by ParisParamus at 8:15 PM on November 2, 2004


jeeze how long does it take to count in NH anyway?
posted by edgeways at 8:16 PM on November 2, 2004


Paris be on a roll tonight...

Was that said with a straight face? Seriously.
posted by eas98 at 8:17 PM on November 2, 2004


Someone cut PP off. He has had too much Mountain Dew and needs to go to bed.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 8:18 PM on November 2, 2004


PA called for Kerry? Did I hear that right?
posted by jaronson at 8:20 PM on November 2, 2004


Long live MF bipartisanship! Go PP!
posted by adampsyche at 8:21 PM on November 2, 2004



Who is this ParisParamus dude of which we speak?
posted by uncanny hengeman at 8:22 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm just curious PP, why are you here? (this is not a hostile question), where you neither appreciate the views of the majority of posters here, nor, it appears they yours?
posted by edgeways at 8:22 PM on November 2, 2004


Hey PP. Meet me on the corner, at the Taco Bell. Yeah, you know the one.

I'll kick your ass.
posted by xmutex at 8:27 PM on November 2, 2004


edgeways: It's probably the most attention he ever gets.
posted by Dark Messiah at 8:27 PM on November 2, 2004


Hey, meet me on the corner, at the Taco Bell, and I'll buy you a Mexican Pizza regardless.

Word.
posted by adampsyche at 8:28 PM on November 2, 2004


now now boys... save all that energy for WW4.
posted by quonsar at 8:28 PM on November 2, 2004


Zogbypredicting a big Kerry win
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm EST):

Electoral Votes:

Bush: 213

Kerry: 311

TOO CLOSE TO CALL:
Nevada (5)
Colorado (9)

Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2


How reliable is that?
posted by dash_slot- at 8:28 PM on November 2, 2004


At least PP's being entertaining.
posted by gyc at 8:32 PM on November 2, 2004


Well, they give Florida to Kerry which I really can't see happening.
posted by Eekacat at 8:33 PM on November 2, 2004


I had lunch with my mom the other day and she told me that she was genuinely scared about bush winning. she almost looked she was gonna cry. and right now I'm pretty confidant he's gonna win. that sucks for people like her and I, and my father. I'm not lookin' forward to the future.
posted by mcsweetie at 8:33 PM on November 2, 2004


Every time anyone says "too close to call..." drink!

It'll feel better in the morning. Barely.
posted by adampsyche at 8:36 PM on November 2, 2004


Every time anyone says "too close to call..." drink!

What are you trying to do, kill us all through alcohol poisoning?

It'll feel better in the morning. Barely.

True.
posted by gyc at 8:38 PM on November 2, 2004


PP is about as entertaining as a drunken frat boy. W00t!
posted by psmealey at 8:38 PM on November 2, 2004


OR, should be called soon, that'll be 195 to 197
posted by edgeways at 8:39 PM on November 2, 2004


Why hasn't Florida been counted yet? I hope this isn't a stupid question but they're in an earlier time-zone and have less voters (I assume as they're "worth" 27 and CA is 55) than California. Wtf?
posted by dobbs at 8:39 PM on November 2, 2004


It's too call to close.
[Spills drink, falls on floor.]
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 8:40 PM on November 2, 2004


ABC just called FL for Bush.
posted by protocool at 8:43 PM on November 2, 2004


Call it to close, too.
posted by mwhybark at 8:45 PM on November 2, 2004


I apologize for my fellow Floridians. We suck.. :(
posted by eas98 at 8:45 PM on November 2, 2004


Bush at ~240 on BBC 33 to go.
posted by dand at 8:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Looks to me like Bush has it wrapped up... I think I got pretty close in the prediction, too.. but that may have been on a another site.
posted by cell divide at 8:51 PM on November 2, 2004


What happened to the youth vote?
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 8:51 PM on November 2, 2004


Bad election. Good Scotch. Net loss.
posted by Galvatron at 8:51 PM on November 2, 2004


strangelefty, was there a Buffy marathon broadcast today? That might have kept the kids inside.

Damned non-meddling kids.
posted by fenriq at 8:58 PM on November 2, 2004


There's still Ohio...
posted by dash_slot- at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2004


FOX called Washington for Kerry. I guess they're wanting to build more tension.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:00 PM on November 2, 2004


Festival Express came out on DVD today. I'm alternating between Janis and Peter Jennings between tequila shots. The best and worst of America, right here on my remote control.
posted by muckster at 9:01 PM on November 2, 2004


NBC just called Oregon. They have it Bush 207, Kerry 206. Quite different from the BBC.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:04 PM on November 2, 2004


P. Diddy is talking youth vote. He feels good about it. OK.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2004


120K vote difference in OH. with 25% of the precincts to report
posted by edgeways at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2004


So, strangelefty, did everyone go to bed, or what?
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:13 PM on November 2, 2004


Yes, I think they did. It's still kind of early here on the west coast. What are you going to do?
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:14 PM on November 2, 2004


Oh, hi edgeways. I wasn't talking to myself, really.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:15 PM on November 2, 2004


It is all down to Ohio now.
posted by scarabic at 9:15 PM on November 2, 2004


LGF: "Estrich is on drugs. I'm looking at the raw data on OH official website, and the gap isn't 150,000--it's 300,000"
posted by ParisParamus at 9:16 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm going to the other thread. Someone turn off the lights when you leave.
posted by strangeleftydoublethink at 9:19 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm still up, but goddamn, goddamn, goddamn

Now Delay is talking on NBC. Fucking crooked fuck.

So, is PP going to be the new ambassador to France?
posted by jmgorman at 9:19 PM on November 2, 2004


PP, the OH SoS site has been shit all night. And what about all of those absentees and provisionals. Even florida is well within a 60/40 margin of those.

Of course, now I think I'm just delusional. And wishing I were drunk. Goddamn.
posted by jmgorman at 9:22 PM on November 2, 2004


P. Diddy is talking youth vote. He feels good about it. OK.

I get the feeling that whatever P. Diddy does, even if it's good, it's always more about P. Diddy then what he's trying to do.
posted by gyc at 9:23 PM on November 2, 2004


FL? the vast majority of absentees are military and jews in Israel--NO GOOD FOR YOU.
posted by ParisParamus at 9:29 PM on November 2, 2004


GOP predicts Ohio, Bush win
Tue Nov 02 2004 23:02:04 ET

WASHINGTON, Nov. 2 (UPI) -- White House sources are telling UPI that they believe George W. Bush will win Ohio and be re-elected president of the United States.

At 10:30 p.m., Bush was told by a senior adviser that Ohio would land in the GOP column and put him over the top with at least 274 electoral votes, the sources said.

"We're very upbeat," Bush said as he watched returns in the Yellow Room at the White House with family members -- including his father, former President George H.W. Bush. "I believe I will win."

Bush's comments shortly before 10 p.m. EST reflected rising Republican hopes that Bush will win Florida and remain in contention in Ohio. Winning both those states would almost certainly return him to office.

The comments were also timed to reach voters in states where the polls had not yet closed including Hawaii, Nevada and Oregon. CNN had Bush leading with 193 electoral votes to Sen. John Kerry's 112.
posted by ParisParamus at 9:33 PM on November 2, 2004


Who the fuck just called Ohio (see Megapundit)?
posted by quasistoic at 9:47 PM on November 2, 2004


Fox just called Ohio for Bush. Now he just needs New Mexico to put him over 270.
posted by b_thinky at 9:47 PM on November 2, 2004


WHAT.
THE.
FUCK.
FOX?
posted by gyc at 9:54 PM on November 2, 2004


Fox News.


Fucking Fox News.

They've never called a state wrong before...
posted by quasistoic at 9:54 PM on November 2, 2004


Where's my passport. OK. Here. Where can I buy plane ticket. Hmm, here. OK. Luggage: check, cash: check.

So long, suckers.
posted by NewBornHippy at 9:56 PM on November 2, 2004


There still is a ghost of a chance, but i am nervous, may have to start job hunting back north of the boarder
posted by edgeways at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004


It's still in contention even without Ohio, unless I'm figuring wrong. Using the BBC interactive map (and, why does the BBC have the best interactive map?) and comparing to the last election, it looks like:

Presume Ohio goes Bush
N.M. goes Bush, but Nevada goes Kerry (even swap)
New Hampshire goes Kerry (+4)

The deciders become:
Wisconsin -- Nader is possible spoiler here, it is so close.
Michigan -- which is heavily Bush right now

If Kerry picks both up and others go the way it seems, he takes it by 3.
posted by brool at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004


NewBornHippy: we can get discounted flight tickets if we buy them together.
posted by quasistoic at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004


Looks real.
posted by calwatch at 9:59 PM on November 2, 2004


But we've got better hair.
posted by scarabic at 10:00 PM on November 2, 2004


Oh dear. Might be time to start thinking about building that mile-high electrified wall on the Canadian border.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 10:02 PM on November 2, 2004


MSNBC calls OH and Alaska for Bush, putting him at 269. If that holds true, Bush wins even if it goes to the House of Representatives
posted by gyc at 10:04 PM on November 2, 2004


Fox has Bush at 266.

http://www.foxnews.com/youdecide2004/
posted by dand at 10:04 PM on November 2, 2004


Drudge calls for Bush.
posted by protocool at 10:06 PM on November 2, 2004


.
posted by Espoo2 at 10:16 PM on November 2, 2004


I want to die. How can we as a nation be so stupid to re-elect this monster? It makes me to sick to my stomach.
posted by keswick at 10:21 PM on November 2, 2004


Jesus- I didn't think that such a large percentage of my fellow citizens were stupid, knuckle-dragging morons. I'm going to bed. Hopefully I might see some of you folks at basic when we're called up for the special services draft.
posted by drstrangelove at 10:22 PM on November 2, 2004


Bush is up by over 3m in the popular vote. Not sure how much that gap will close when all of Cali is factored. It looks like it's pretty much over. New Mexico will be called any second now. This has been such a long and ugly election. If everything is as it seems, I hope Kerry concedes tonight. It would be good for the country. Let's put this piece of crap election behind us.
posted by b_thinky at 10:28 PM on November 2, 2004


NewBornHippy, can we count on that or are you bullshitting again?
posted by shoos at 10:29 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm going to bed a happy panda :D
posted by Ron at 10:30 PM on November 2, 2004


And that electrified wall idea? Fucking brilliant. Now who's up for one on the southern border?
posted by shoos at 10:31 PM on November 2, 2004


Yeah, I won't really call it 'till it's over, but the question of how to grapple with this backwoods country I live in has just gotten a lot deeper (yet simpler). It's one thing to scramble this ape into the White House on a technicality ONCE, but to willfully re-elect him is a completely different level of insanity. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me again! Fool me again!

It's totally obvious that the problem here is the electorate. The American people have spoken and they would like another, sir. Well, I guess the rest of us can stop pretending that 2000 was some kind of back-door swindle and face the reality that we live in a fucked up nation that needs a lot of help. For myself, I've got to get some work done on that teaching credential plan.

Dig in, kids - as if you haven't already - it's gonna be a long one :)
posted by scarabic at 10:33 PM on November 2, 2004


quasistoic NewBornHippy: we can get discounted flight tickets if we buy them together.

Where're you going? I'm going back to France.
posted by NewBornHippy at 10:34 PM on November 2, 2004


shoos NewBornHippy, can we count on that or are you bullshitting again?

Again? I don't understand.

Anyways, yes, I'm leaving the country and going somewhere else -- where I originally came from. Not a pretty sight, but at least there's a left there (and some commies too.)
posted by NewBornHippy at 10:37 PM on November 2, 2004


It's over.
America is so over.
Don't make plans for another Presidential Election in '08. It ain't gonna happen.
It was a nice experiment while it lasted.

In 2000, Bush got 50.5million votes to Gore's 51million.
With 78% of the votes in, Bush has 49million to Kerry's 45.6million. Extrapolate to 100% and Kerry has about 58million (7 million more than Gore did) and Bush has 63million. Now where did Bush's 12.5 million new votes come from? Maybe the reason the exit polls showed more strength for Kerry was that the exit polls weren't fixed.

You win, PP, but I'll never believe you won fair and square.
But after 25 years in the American Business Sector, I know fair and square don't matter.
I'm getting out of here.
Anybody got a couch in Canada where I can crash?
posted by wendell at 10:37 PM on November 2, 2004


you know I actually think this is gonna discourage a lot of voters next time around. I'm thinking of giving up on the system... elect whoever the fuck you want my vote hasn't counted for shit in 12 years, why should I vote... in fact screw the system. All the vile lying and nastyness is not worth it. Work for change... yeah like that is gonna work in a neocon world. Screw you America, you asked for it, you got it.
posted by edgeways at 10:39 PM on November 2, 2004


What the fuck has happened to my country? How could it even be this close?

How could a fight-first-think-never administration be this close in the voting? How is it that a candidate the world hates might be chosen to lead a nation whose economy hangs on world economics? How can a man who thinks atheists aren't citizens be president of a nation based on free thought? How can a president who has widened the gape between rich and poor, taxed the poor to pay the rich, and done nothing for those who live without, be a man of the people? What happened to our nation that valued liberty and freedom? Seriously. Liberty and freedom.

The world I know is gone. As an atheist I need to wonder at such basic things as my recent marriage, If marriage is part of a covenant with a God I feel is a fanciful notion, am I even married? If, as I believe, gays and lesbians are no different than I am as a straight man, what does it mean when the president is on record as thinking they should be excluded? When I believe, based on careful reading of historical documentation, that the Iraq war is a blatant farce born of the neo-con totalitarian agenda, how do I justify the deaths of our troops in a land where we have no interest other than dick size?

We are to be led by a man who's given us a debt we will never be able to pay, an unprecedented growth of federal intrusion in our lives, an increase in the size of government which I can't decide whether to describe as Orwellian or Soviet, and who all of us worry is an arrogant, hair trigger, cowboy.

Yet, it is this close.

I live in a country that hates me. I live in a nation that believes in a fantasyland of cowboys and indians. I live in a country that feels morals are a serious issue.

Morals? Morals are at the mercy of rhetoric. Will we soon be hanging men like me in the town square because I think gays and lesbians are normal? Will I be pilloried in the stocks because I feel the world was a safer place with Sadam in power? Will I soon be burned at the stake for thinking the Bible was written by a committee of ideologies too fat to do real work?

If this is America, then I'm not an American. I live in the hope that in my lifetime we will return to a country devoted to freedom and liberty and justice and equality. My America is the America of our founding fathers.

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security."
posted by y6y6y6 at 10:41 PM on November 2, 2004


Again? I don't understand.

Just making sure. France should be nice. Have fun!
posted by shoos at 10:41 PM on November 2, 2004


This country can suck my long hairy dick.
posted by greasepig at 10:44 PM on November 2, 2004


I'm thinking of giving up on the system...

While I feel your pain, I do not, at least, feel the shame of being such a quailing quitter and pansy.

Courage, America.
posted by scarabic at 10:48 PM on November 2, 2004


there is a difference between quitting because it hard and quilting because it is harmful. It is a waste of invested emotion, time and resources that I can better devote towards my little circle... Engaging in the same acts over and over producing the same undesirable effects is insanity.
posted by edgeways at 10:52 PM on November 2, 2004


CNN is calling Ohio too close to call, with 350,000 votes to count. Ain't over yet.
posted by NewBornHippy at 10:56 PM on November 2, 2004


ParisParamus Vindicated! Blogwars continue...
Devloping.
posted by eatitlive at 10:58 PM on November 2, 2004


Wait til the votes are counted folks. Learn from 2000.
posted by amberglow at 10:59 PM on November 2, 2004


"Courage, America."

This is two in a row. Right? Where do you draw your courage from sir? Seriously. Please give us hope.

Do we draw courage from the hope that the pendulum will swing? Why? Seriously. When we look at history and see great nations falling after giving in to nationalism and propoganda, where is our hope? It's too late to think this is a blip on the radar. Two elections is a trend. And one we've seen before.

Please. Give those of us who value liberty some source of courage.
posted by y6y6y6 at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2004


It ain't over 'till it's over, and much mischief travels at night.
posted by troutfishing at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2004


Uh huh. Sell your remaining years because this one didn't work out. Seeya.

No one wins who doesn't have a long-term strategy.

This is why, secretly, I've hoped for a Bush victory. Lefties like myself are all too eager for Kerry to win, so they can stop thinking about politics for another 4 years. Sorry, but the Democratic party in particular, and the left in general, is not in a "coast" mode. It has work to do, and nothing has helped us organize and clue in more than this bullshit president we've had these past 4 years.

We need to focus more on Congress, we need to focus our message, we need to do some key work in some key states. We can do it, and we will. That all would have been true even if Kerry had won. But a Kerry victory would have been a license to sit around fat and stupid, while the tireless Republican worker drones who've been steering this country for 30 years continued their work.

Wake up call! Hello! It's time to get with it, and the next 4 years are only the beginning.

Oh! You're getting off already? Okay, I understand, your spine isn't working. No, no, you need to go get some medical attention for that. Seeya in 3.5 years when you care again!
posted by scarabic at 11:00 PM on November 2, 2004


I hate to join in the doomsday-ers, but jesus... I just dont know what to say.

Rest of the world - please note we all dont <3 bush. A lot of us are just as shocked as you are. Please dont forget that.
posted by fillsthepews at 11:01 PM on November 2, 2004


Iowa count is being delayed until tomorrow because of technical problems. Ain't over yet.
posted by NewBornHippy at 11:03 PM on November 2, 2004


What will Bush do with a mandate and no need for re-election?
posted by dand at 11:06 PM on November 2, 2004


"Wake up call! Hello! It's time to get with it, and the next 4 years are only the beginning."

Isn't this what they said 4 years ago? wake up back atcha, it didn't work. Huge voter turn out.. pfft so what?
posted by edgeways at 11:07 PM on November 2, 2004


Ain't over yet.

But you are still moving, right? Call me when you get there.
posted by shoos at 11:08 PM on November 2, 2004


y63: I draw my courage from history.

This phenomenon of people pulling together and forming "societies" where people pool resources and attempt to care for one another is a relatively new phenomenon on the historic chart. It's brand new, in fact, and it's surging wildly.

I believe the main difference between the American left and right is the difference between "one for all" and "let me have mine and screw the rest of you."

While I understand their POV pretty well (I'm hardly the poor radical with nothing to defend) I also see that in a general sense, the human instinct to collectively gather and prosper mutually does exist and is burgeoning. What it's experiencing right now is a very logical lashback. "What's in it for me?" and so on. That's only natural.

It's healthy, in fact, because if we're going to evolve systems whereby we share healthcare costs on a national level, for instance, they need to be proven, fair, and cost-effective. Otherwise, what's the point?

But don't panic. What do you think the popular vote on gay marriage would have been 100 years ago? Uh.... 100% against? Hello. Wake up to history. Tonight is not the end of time. If you want to quail and become irrelevant, that's your choice. If you want to keep fighting the good fight on all levels, then time is on your side.

Besides, what are you going to do? Move? I don't know about you, but I happen to love the land I live on, I love the Pacific Coast, the Sierra Nevada, all of California, really, and I'm not giving it up to anyone, ever, even if I have to live out the rest of my short life as a political minority.

In good times and bad to thine own self be true.
posted by scarabic at 11:09 PM on November 2, 2004


I will have to agree with scarabic on his previous points. Though I am happy Bush won I never felt this election would be lost to Kerry. The message of the Democrats is not clear and focused yet(Kerry does come off as a flip-flopper). I think that is also shown by the gains the Republicans have made in the Senate (especially with Daschle losing). Your hateful remarks about America's decision is not much help either, though by all means say them if you must. I know you think the rest of America "doesn't get it" but maybe it is you all that don't get it, or at least some of it. Who knows, my 2 cents.
posted by Ron at 11:12 PM on November 2, 2004


I love the Pacific Coast, the Sierra Nevada, all of California.

Hell yes. Even if frigging Pol Pot won the election, I'd stay here.
posted by shoos at 11:18 PM on November 2, 2004


What scarabic said.

My America is dying. Today I weep. Tomorrow I'll hope.
posted by y6y6y6 at 11:23 PM on November 2, 2004


What the fuck has happened to my country? How could it even be this close?

While I share your outrage, you really must know that they've had us for a while now. There's a concerted coup going on, and it's long-thought-out and well organized. You're talking about a pack who impeached Clinton, which is no small feat in my book. Are we really surprised that a relatively last-minute effort on our part didn't defeat a movement that's been gathering steam for 20 years?

We're behind. We're confused. There's a war going on, and unfortunately, we're the folks who are generally against wars as such. So we're not terribly good at them. I understand how that works, but I think the left has failed the "eternal vigilance is the price we pay" test. We've fallen asleep at the wheel. Some of us are avidly careening off cliffs.

Show me a single Republican who's given up before it's over. They'd rather retreat into denial when things don't go their way. And that's screwed up, but nowhere near as screwed up as surrender. Better to be deluded in the short term than apathetic forever.

Get with it. There's work to do.
posted by scarabic at 11:24 PM on November 2, 2004


Well, I made a deal with my girlfriend (a Canadian) about where we would live as a result of this election. Looks like I am going to be a Canadian. It is quite obvious I don't fit in here anyway, so no great loss to y'all. Goodbye cruel world....
posted by Eekacat at 11:25 PM on November 2, 2004


I can understand if someone is on the other side of the border pulling you across. But the people who are talking about just leaving... I don't get it. Could you possibly play into your opponents' hands any more effectively? Do you hate competing so much that you concede?

I wouldn't give you a hard time, but I've met people in their 50s who tell me they don't vote because their guy lost in '64 and it broke their spirit. All I can think is: "thanks... if only you'd been an activist all this tme, maybe things would be better now." Whether you have children of your on or not (I don't), try to leave this planet a little better than you found it, eh?

Besides: we've got better hair.
posted by scarabic at 11:33 PM on November 2, 2004


You're right Ron. I don't get it. /gumble about fuckin' Ohio

*goes to sleep with dreams of reversal dancing in his head*

*on preview: puts on hair net*
posted by Dick Paris at 11:37 PM on November 2, 2004


Kerry is only down 11 EVs now. You can't count him out yet at all.
posted by Ron at 11:38 PM on November 2, 2004


249 to 242 per CNN
posted by Ron at 11:43 PM on November 2, 2004


"you really must know that they've had us for a while now."

Just so. The nazis aren't at the gates - they've taken the keep. Game. Set. Match. While we may have hoped the last five years were just a blip on the radar, now we find our western flank overrun. We have lost. What does the honorable man do now?

I want to live in America, but America's given mandate stands fully in opposion to almost everything I believe in.

The long game, I fear, clings to denial.
posted by y6y6y6 at 11:48 PM on November 2, 2004


Bush needs to win Wisconsin + 2/3 of Nevada/NM/Iowa to win without Ohio.
posted by gyc at 11:49 PM on November 2, 2004


Ron. Unless Kerry takes Ohio he has lost by the numbers. And even if he wins Ohio, he still will lose the popular vote.

Bush has won the popular vote. Not may win. Has won. Game over. No spin of the numbers could lead to Kerry winning the popular vote. He would need another 4 million votes. And there aren't 4 million votes up for grab.

It's over.
posted by y6y6y6 at 11:52 PM on November 2, 2004


We have lost. What does the honorable man do now?

I don't know. Die? The game isn't over, if that's what you're suggesting. It will go on. You don't want to play anymore? I can understand that tonight, I guess, but that's not my reaction at all. I feel better, in fact, than I've felt in months.

In case you're wondering how I'm managing to maintain this level of energy in the face of bad news, I confess that I am watching and listenting to this repeatedly.

Seriously. Bush is a pretty piss-poor conservative candidate, who can barely win re-election. Another 4 years of him defining what it means to be a Republican, while continuing to galvanize the left, can only be good in the long run. What's bad for the left, in the long run, is a president like Reagan, who is actually far and away bilaterally successful on all the levels that matter. This Bush Jr. character has unified the Left like never before, while doing little to legitimate the Right. Even with the "war on terror" and the war in Iraq he could barely pull out a 51% performance. That's sad, in the big picture.

The right is spending points with him, not earning them. But isn't this what the Left said last time? No, not really. What the Left said was that Bush's election wasn't legitimate. They've been cherishing the illusion all these years that it was just a matter of getting a clean recount.

Ha! It's time to let 2000 go and play ball for real.
posted by scarabic at 11:53 PM on November 2, 2004


NEWSFLASH:
Most Americans Still Morons - Official.
posted by cell at 11:54 PM on November 2, 2004


Please chill a little, and wait for the votes to be all counted. Let's see how it shakes out. Kerry picked up WI and MI while you guys were shopping for tickets out. IA and OH (and maybe FL) all have to be counted thoroughly--the one promise made in 2000 that MUST be kept. I have faith, and the people waiting on line in OH for hours and hours have faith too. Maybe it's not misplaced.
posted by amberglow at 11:54 PM on November 2, 2004


> Bush is a pretty piss-poor conservative candidate, who can barely win re-election.

Under Bush, Reps win both houses of congress, and keep them. How is that a problem?
posted by dand at 11:58 PM on November 2, 2004


Wisconsin is still very close. If the Democrats challenge Ohio, can the Republicans ask for a recount in Wisconsin?
posted by gyc at 11:59 PM on November 2, 2004


DailyKos Blogger catches CNN pushing last minute Ohio poll result switcheroo

To win, Dems need to dig in and fight for each vote.
posted by troutfishing at 12:00 AM on November 3, 2004


Here's a question:

Now that the majority of America has voted for Bush, does this mean that those people abroad can start hating the American government and the American people?
posted by Mossy at 12:03 AM on November 3, 2004


I think there is something to be said about the Republicans picking up another Senate seat. But as scarabic said, Bush retains a 51% majority so his coat tails ain't that long. Add to that his approaching 4 million advantage on popular vote, I feel that Americans voted on the issues important to them, and unfortunately for your candidate, his issues were not in tune with the majority of America's issues this time round.
posted by Ron at 12:06 AM on November 3, 2004


> those people abroad can start hating the American government and the American people?

Better, they could start taking care of their own problems. As if the US disappeared, muslim terrorism in Europe would as well.
posted by dand at 12:07 AM on November 3, 2004


How is that a problem?

Squeaking through re-election during a time of war is hardly a sign of strength. Jesus, people. You act like you're all 50% behind. It takes all the organization, fearmongering, electioneering, and heredity the Right has to offer to beat you by 1%. Just imagine if you were actually up on your knees, or even standing? Whoo!
posted by scarabic at 12:07 AM on November 3, 2004


Now that the majority of America has voted for Bush, does this mean that those people abroad can start hating the American government and the American people?


Sure, why not? It's their right. I hate all people, regardless of race, gender, sexual orientation, religion, nationality, or political affiliation.
posted by gyc at 12:10 AM on November 3, 2004


"beat you by 1%"

Actually, the 3.7M margin is 3.5% of the total of 106M.
posted by chris24 at 12:15 AM on November 3, 2004


Mossy, for the "majority of America" to have voted for Bush, there'd have to be a near-100% turnout - which I don't imagine is the case, so I'm not sure you we can turn our abject hatin' on the people of America just yet.

But, I can think they're morons because a large majority have voted republican or not voted at all. And that would be the case even if the dems win, at this point!

dand, I don't remember Europe having much of a pre-Bush problem with muslim terrorism.. Maybe we did though, and I just didn't notice at the time.
posted by cell at 12:17 AM on November 3, 2004


"beat you by 1%"

Actually, the 3.7M margin is 3.5% of the total of 106M.
posted by chris24 at 12:15 AM PST on November 3


Just to make it easy...

Point: The margin is very slim.

Details: 1% and 3.5 are both very slim.

Additional details: The final-final margins are not yet in, so let's not split hairs.

Gratuitous details: You are good at simple math.
posted by scarabic at 12:21 AM on November 3, 2004


 ".....Until 3 hrs ago, CNN showed exit polls of about 52-48 for Kerry -- women were 53-47 for Kerry and men were 51-49 for Kerry.

Then, an Orwellian/Rovian hand changed the results to: 52-48 Bush (male) and 50-50 (female).

The number of respondents did not change.  The numbers were cooked late at night to jive with the fraudulant "results".

This diarist caught the swicharoo as well, and has a link to CNN's new numbers." - maybe true, maybe not. But worth contesting.
posted by troutfishing at 12:24 AM on November 3, 2004


That's "jibe"

To jive someone or something means to bamboozle or fool them.

A jibe is a connection of two pieces of wood specially carved or cut to fit.

/worst time ever to make this proscriptivist gripe
posted by scarabic at 12:30 AM on November 3, 2004


> I don't remember Europe having much of a pre-Bush problem with muslim terrorism..

Even if that were true, correlation does not imply causation. But its not true:
Time 1998:

Although there have not been such devastating attacks since 1995, French authorities fear a new wave of Islamic terrorism in Europe may accompany the rise of a leading figure in the G.I.A., Hassan Hattab. Some of those held in the sweeps before the World Cup had clear links to 31-year-old Algeria-based Hattab, who now leads a section of the G.I.A. there. Says an anti-terrorist expert in Paris: "What we are hearing from those arrested and seeing from documents found is that Hattab's goal is to terrorize non-Muslim societies, and also to spark a radicalization of Muslims in Europe."

posted by dand at 12:31 AM on November 3, 2004


Anbody think there is any validity in this?

If its true that the exit polling numbers (which seemed to favor Kerry, I think) are largely way off in places with no-paper-trail-voting and are largely correct in places with paper-trail voting then . . . well, that's just fucking scary.

We have to look into every possibility with the Bush/Cheney crowd. Every legitimate avenue to victory must be considered!
posted by Boydrop at 12:34 AM on November 3, 2004


"Anbody think there is any validity in this?"

Yes. Of course. That's it. The election was stolen by Rove's hackers. Yes.

[decocks the handgun..... puts it back in the cabinet...... prepares to riot in the street....]
posted by y6y6y6 at 12:43 AM on November 3, 2004


scarabic, the "left" has LOST GROUND in the last 4 years; Bush has a clear majority and a 3% win in the POPULAR vote. The neo-cons hve 1-or-2 MORE Senators and a half dozen MORE Congresscritters. Bush will get to pick Supreme Court justices (maybe as soon as next month). And it doen't matter if the votes came from people who actually exist (and I believe a helluva lot of them don't). The Bushites control the playing field and we are not going to level it in my lifetime.

The first time I voted for President in 1976, I knew the political system was weighted against the needs of the people. And it has deteriorated significantly since then. Relying on lawyers just proves that the system doesn't work. I'd honestly be surprised if we have a 2008 Presidential Election (and a Soviet-style one-party ballot doesn't count.)

I learned my lesson with my ex-wife that hanging onto a lost cause kills your soul. I am not waiting for America to do to me what my ex did.
posted by wendell at 12:59 AM on November 3, 2004


You did good in this thread, scarabic. Regardless of how the chips eventually fall, thank you for that.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 1:16 AM on November 3, 2004


exit polls v. results = diebold?
posted by Espoo2 at 1:48 AM on November 3, 2004


Andy Card, Chief of Staff, declaring Bush the winner on TV, collecting NV and OH. 286 EV.
posted by dand at 2:47 AM on November 3, 2004


cheer up. this is like the uk aeons ago. eventually you'll get your blair, think that changes everything, and then realise it's just the same as before anyway.... :o/
posted by andrew cooke at 3:23 AM on November 3, 2004


C'mon Dean. I need you now.
posted by TeamBilly at 5:09 AM on November 3, 2004


Anyone else more terrified of PP's comments over the coming weeks than the election results themselves?
posted by adampsyche at 5:21 AM on November 3, 2004


GAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by mikojava at 9:45 AM on November 3, 2004


wendell - do you have any kids? Your perseverance is important for them. That might be important to remember alongside the thoughts about your ex. I don't have kids myself but I'm not going to automatically cede all future battles because we lost this one. That's what going to Canada, etc, amounts to. I just don't see how it helps.

If you actively want to become the citizen of another country that better represents you, I offer you support and encouragement. But if you're angry about this election, chances are you care about America. And I, for myself, don't find the land under my feet interchangeable.

We're not going to get off the hook, here. Even if Kerry had won there would still be tons of work to do. Vigilance, patience, perseverance. Let's set some goals, like the Republicans did in the 70s. They're reaping the benefits now. How does a Democratic dynasty from 2030-2050 sound to you? It's time to start thinking in terms like these, and stop thinking in terms like "that's the last straw! screw it!"

Things can always get worse. If the best we can do is be a minority check on greed and lies, then I still think we have a responsibility to do our best.

Mourn today and mourn deep, but don't do it with a loaded gun in your hands, to use a figure of speech.
posted by scarabic at 11:27 AM on November 3, 2004


Adampsyche, I was going to vote for Kerry before I decided not to vote for Kerry.

Actually, you are so wrong. I don't have a mean bone in my body. Which means, I detest piling-on. I love all of you.

But, I will turn my anger to the liberal left media, and their bullshit manipulative "exit polls." Criminal investigation!

I will also be contributing to LGF, and here less.

Also, I hear Yasser may die in Paris in the next 24 hours. In Paris! Fuck the French de nouveau!
posted by ParisParamus at 3:46 PM on November 3, 2004


Let's set some goals

that the Democratic Party have less than 10% of the vote by 2008, to be replaced by a moderate, sane new party.
posted by ParisParamus at 3:52 PM on November 3, 2004


You make good points, scarabic. I join those who cheer your contribution to this thread. I'm mighty angry at America right now. Not the neocons, mind you--they're just following their nature. I'm angry at the liberals who were shooting fish in a barrel and missed. It really makes me question our tactics, and the authenticity of our leadership.

Thoughts on going expatriate: I recommend it for those who want to see America in global context. We're important to the rest of the world, but not so much as we often think. Being an American abroad takes patience because most educated people expect you to be a belligerent, homophobic moron. As this election shows, there are reasons for this stereotype.

Scarabic, you're also right that at least we now know that America isn't a nation suffering under a leader it doesn't want. Finding out that America wants the neocon path changes my position on a lot of things.

I didn't leave America because of how misguided our collective direction has become; I have more positive reasons--things drawing me, not repelling me. I'm glad that I'm not in America now, though. The constant drag of hearing what stupid, destructive thing Bush had done that day was impacting my life too much, to be sure. Once you leave America, you can escape the incessant drumbeat of crazy-making media.

Another consolation of living abroad: on my way out for my morning cup, I have at least the comfort of knowing that I'm not looking at the faces of people who voted for Bush. If I were in America today, I think my eyes would be continually bugging out in disbelief.
posted by squirrel at 6:20 PM on November 3, 2004


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