Airliner crashes in western Venezuela

August 16, 2005 6:09 AM

Airliner crashes in western Venezuela — A passenger plane crashed in remote western Venezuela with 152 passengers aboard early Tuesday, an aviation official said. A top government official said it was unlikely anyone survived.
posted by Rothko (40 comments total)

.
posted by caddis at 6:21 AM on August 16, 2005

It's amazing the weirdness that google lets through on a search on plane

.

It hasn't been a good week for planes.
posted by peacay at 6:23 AM on August 16, 2005

Is it just me or do these things really happen in clusters?

According to the WCA website, it looks like the aircraft was an MD-81 or MD-82. 152 plus crew is the capacity of the MD-81. Hopefully, the flight wasn't fully loaded.
posted by three blind mice at 6:26 AM on August 16, 2005

What the hell is going on up there? I'm driving everywhere now, and keeping an eye on the sky in case something falls out of it.
posted by Dipsomaniac at 6:35 AM on August 16, 2005

Is it just me or do these things really happen in clusters?

I'm sure someone somewhere has modeled the probability distribution of airline crashes against time and place dimensions. /slothrop

I'm just hoping the two incidents are not related. The details of the cabin depressurization from last week's crash seemed awfully strange to me. Hopefully the results from the black box analysis will come out soon.
posted by Rothko at 6:38 AM on August 16, 2005

and keeping an eye on the sky in case something falls out of it.

Good idea.
posted by mediareport at 6:51 AM on August 16, 2005

Here's a timeline of recent airplane crashes.

Its pretty clear that they do not happen in clusters. More likely: they either are reported in clusters - e.g., during a slow news week or month, airplane crashes are more likely to receive front-page coverage in newspapers and websites (and one-link news-filter mefi posts); or we just happen to notice them in clusters. Like most coincidences, we tend to notice signals but ignore noise.
posted by googly at 6:54 AM on August 16, 2005

Heh, I was going to say they do sometimes happen in clusters, based on this timeline:

May 4, 2002 - A Nigerian EAS Airlines’ BAC 1-11-500 with 105 people on board crashes in the northern Nigerian city of Kano. At least 148 people were killed.

May 7, 2002 - A China Northern MD-82 jet falls into the sea off Dalian in northeast China, killing all 112 passengers and crew on board.

May 25, 2002 - A China Airlines Boeing 747-200 with 225 people on board plummets into the sea while on a flight from Taiwan to Hong Kong, killing everyone on board.

posted by smackfu at 6:58 AM on August 16, 2005

I'm just hoping the two incidents are not related.

Well Rothko while the cause of both crashes remains unknown, the plane that crashed in Greece was a Boeing 737 so the likelihood that they are related seems pretty low.

But then again smackfu's observation ain't giving me any warm feelings.
posted by three blind mice at 7:06 AM on August 16, 2005

Hopefully the results from the black box analysis will come out soon.

Unfortunately, though, the black box on board was an older model with only 30 minutes of information that gets constantly overwritten. Due to the nature of the incident, where the plane apparently flew for quite awhile after everyone was already dead, there might not be much information left on the initial failure, whatever it was.
posted by odinsdream at 7:06 AM on August 16, 2005

Well, any random event is going to have 'runs' of numbers. If you take N_t as being "The number of crashes this week" Where P(0) = 0.98, P(1) = 0.02 and P(2) = 0.004, and so on the probability that you have two weeks with one crash right next to eachother is 0.004 also.

Keep having weeks and you'll eventualy get 'clusters'.

If they happened at predictable intervals, it'd be much more strange.
posted by delmoi at 7:09 AM on August 16, 2005

googly writes "Here's a timeline of recent airplane crashes."

I wouldn't rely on that list though, as it doesn't even mention the recent crash of the coast of Sicily.
posted by smcniven at 7:10 AM on August 16, 2005

Keep having weeks

So far, so good.
posted by sonofsamiam at 7:12 AM on August 16, 2005

the black box on board was an older model with only 30 minutes of information that gets constantly overwritten.

well odinsdream the antiquated flight recorder sort of supports my fear that charter airlines operating out of small countries that don't spend a lot of time and money on accident investigation, don't spend a lot of time and money on maintenence or on crew training.
posted by three blind mice at 7:13 AM on August 16, 2005

.
posted by Busithoth at 7:13 AM on August 16, 2005

Figuring out crash probabilities from a Poisson distribution. Divide a few of these calculations by the number of remaining total flights per year and you have a range of survival odds, I guess.
posted by Rothko at 7:14 AM on August 16, 2005

Well Rothko while the cause of both crashes remains unknown, the plane that crashed in Greece was a Boeing 737 so the likelihood that they are related seems pretty low.

I was speculating about an act of terrorism. Seems very unlikely, I know, but the pilot was missing, and as has been noted, the Greek plane could have flown to a lower altitude if it was simply cabin depressurization.

Perhaps the oxygen masks or generators failed as well and the crew and passengers asphyxiated as well as froze to death, but some passengers were still alive when the plane crashed, according to some of the autopsy results, so that would seem to be a less likely explanation.
posted by Rothko at 7:19 AM on August 16, 2005

I was speculating about an act of terrorism.

Perhaps, but then again neither Greece nor Columbia are members of the coalition of the willing.
posted by three blind mice at 7:25 AM on August 16, 2005

three blind mice: "Perhaps, but then again neither Greece nor Columbia are members of the coalition of the willing."
Acatually, Columbia heads the coalition. Colombia, on the other hand, does not.
posted by signal at 7:39 AM on August 16, 2005

touche signal.
posted by three blind mice at 7:44 AM on August 16, 2005

Does terrorism have to be limited in thinking of coalition of the willing? Greece has had old problems with Cyprus. The airliner crashed in Venezuela, was registered with Colombia, and was out of Panama. Panama has been relatively strife free recently, but not the other two.
(And Colombia was on the coalition of the willing list that was linked.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:02 AM on August 16, 2005

Good point, smcniven. That link points to a BBC listing of recent "air disasters," which is fairly selective. Here's a more comprehensive listing of plane crashes (warning: popup hell).

If you click on the entry for 2005, you'll see that there have been at least 17 crashes this year (the site doesn't clearly indicate what criteria it uses in assembling the database):

January (1)
February (2)
March (3)
April (2)
May (2)
June (2)
July (1)
August (4)

Does this distribution indicate clustering? On first glance, some people would say no (a fairly consistent two crashes per month), some would say yes (but check out March and April!).

Someone more statistically savvy than I (maybe someone like delmoi) can do statistical tests to determine whether or not this sequence is significant or not. But they would also have to take into accout the volume of flights (we would expect plane crashes to be more frequent when there are more planes in the air) and many other variables.
posted by googly at 8:06 AM on August 16, 2005

Er.....August, not April
posted by googly at 8:07 AM on August 16, 2005

fear that charter airlines operating out of small countries that don't spend a lot of time and money on accident investigation, don't spend a lot of time and money on maintenence or on crew training.

three blind mice,

Greece and Cyprus have an excellent record regarding airplane accidents. No, really. Check your facts. Other larger countries, far larger,have far worse record.

It is true though, that the company (HELIOS) that operated the airplane in Greece is a small, private company (of British interests) which might have compromised safety for money. Lets wait and see, I say. OK? This accident is very, very weird. Or, one of those cases of catastrophic coincidences. Lots of them.
posted by carmina at 8:10 AM on August 16, 2005

dances_with_sneetches,

Greece does not have problems with Cyprus. Not even the Turkish Cypriot part. I seriously doubt a muslim Turkish Cypriot hijacked the plane to crash it on Athens because.... ? Far-fetched.

That said, I do not think anyone has ruled out the possibility of a person going crazy on the plane, but this scenario is very low on the authorities' list. It seems that the F16 pilots quickly downgraded the "suspiciously renegade" airplane to just "renegade". Greece has very strict procedures and up-to-date methods to deal with problems like that, because it had to, since it hosted the Olympics last year.
posted by carmina at 8:18 AM on August 16, 2005

Greece has had old problems with Cyprus.

dances_with_sneetches Greece has had problems with Turkey over Cyprus, but the dispute has grown sort of cold. It only becomes an issue when Turkey's EU membership is discussed.

Yeah, I missed Colombia. (Find doesn't work when you spell the name wrong...). I wonder how many troops Colombia have sent to Iraq (and how much it cost the American taxpayer to buy their support.)

But still... terrorism? The Bush administration's propoganda hasn't (yet) conditioned me to see a terrorist behind every thing that falls out of the sky. 70% of all airplane crashes are caused by pilot error. Mechanical failures cause 11%, poor maintenence 7%, Air Traffic Control 5%, weather 4% and "other problems" make up the rest.

The crash in Greece is similar to that of Payne Stewart's airplane. "Loss of cabin pressure and failure to obtain oxygen incapacitated the crew of golfer Payne Stewart's plane, leading to the crash last year that killed all six aboard the chartered Learjet." That one was probably a combination of mechanical failure and crew error.
posted by three blind mice at 8:24 AM on August 16, 2005

.

...what a week.
posted by VulcanMike at 8:29 AM on August 16, 2005

carmina Checking my facts I note that Colombia is number 3 on your list after the US and Russia. Considering the relative sizes of the top three, Colombian airlines have to be far and away worst in the world for airline safety.

Yes, I totally agree to wait and see before jumping to any conclusions, but I'm still going to feel a bit uneasy when I step onto the next small country charter.
posted by three blind mice at 8:33 AM on August 16, 2005

Airliners.net thread
posted by clyde at 8:36 AM on August 16, 2005

I was referring to Greece, 3blindmice. C'mon now.

I will feel a bit uneasy when I step onto a small, private company charter, which dirt cheap tickets, whether it comes from a small or a big-o country.
posted by carmina at 8:38 AM on August 16, 2005

List of air disasters for 2005.

Only commercial flights get column inches and air-time.
posted by Navek Rednam at 9:33 AM on August 16, 2005

- "disasters"
+ "accidents"
posted by Navek Rednam at 9:35 AM on August 16, 2005

Ugh... I'm never flying a cheap airline again.
posted by Moral Animal at 9:42 AM on August 16, 2005

I would say this is the Summer 2005 version of sharks, but we already had those. I just wonder what happens this September...
posted by Captaintripps at 11:17 AM on August 16, 2005

My girlfriend's on an airplane right now. Argh...

Statistics and probabilities notwithstanding, this is some piss-poor timing.
posted by Civil_Disobedient at 11:18 AM on August 16, 2005

70% of all airplane crashes are caused by pilot error

I saw a show on the discovery channel which featured an "advanced" autopilot. While the majority of the accidents that fall within the 70% pilot error category are purely due to a mindfuck in the pilot co-pilot crew, there still are a significant number of accidents attributed to pilot error that are indirectly caused by a mechanical failure (it looks better for the airline, if they can show their fleet is ok, but the responsibility for the crash falls squarely on the crew). For example, if the tail rudder ceases to operate properly, pilots are trained to use the flaps on the wings, air brakes, and even landing gear to create drag to "steer" the plane as much as possible. However, the success of such a manuever is purely dependent on the skill and communication of the crew, a little luck, and the crew's ability to handle a high stress situation without freaking out. That said, this advanced interface would still let the pilot know something was wrong with the rudder, but he could use the foot pedals as if the rudder was fine. Depending on his actions, the computer would process his input and automatically deploy air brakes, landing gear, and such to simulate a functioning rudder.

Unfortunately, this technology is still several years away (as of broadcast of the show, anyway) but, I would surmise that it will end up saving hundreds of lives.

By the way, how come there isn't an ejection protocol for the passenger cabin? I'm sure it would cost boku bucks, but since the cabin is pressurized anyway (sorry Cyprus air, wouldn't help you there), couldn't the pilots slow the plane down and reduce altitude as much as possible before ejecting the entire cabin? Think of it as a smaller tube inside the existing fuselage with parachutes on the end, that would exit through the rear of a specially built plane (a la the C1 transport army type plane). The flight attendants could be trained to minimally steer it, so it doesn't end up on a highway or lava pit. Even if the pilots encountered catastrophic mechanical failure while at 30,000 feet cruising at maximum speed, I for one, would at least like the CHANCE if he hit the eject button.

Unfortunately, for the pilot and cabin crew, they're pretty much SOL as they have to "safely" guide the plane down ("safely" with regards to any people on the ground, the crew would be goners)

If an airline had this, and it actually worked, (I may be missing some law of aerodynamics and/or physics in my post, if so, please let me know), I'd gladly pay double or triple market standard for a ticket just for the POSSIBILITY of a 2nd chance in case something terrible happened. That's what bothers me about flying so much. I know you're much more likely to die in a car wreck, but once your car spins out of control, it happens fairly quickly, and if you do have time to think, it's not "Game Over" automatically. There still is a decent chance, at least in your head, that the seatbelt or airbag will save your life, unlike a plane crash.
posted by Debaser626 at 12:04 PM on August 16, 2005

I'm driving everywhere now

Bad move. You have a far higher chance of dying on the roads per passenger mile than dying in a plane.

The table above only lists rates per vehicle mile and yet it is STILL safer to travel by plane than car. Now "multiply" those figures by the average number of passengers in a plane trip versus a car trip to work out the fatality rate per passenger mile.

You are at least 10 times safer in the air to get to your destination than a car and possibly as much as 50 times. Drive long distances sparingly.
posted by DirtyCreature at 12:36 PM on August 16, 2005

Here are photos of that airliner.
posted by Jazznoisehere at 1:12 PM on August 16, 2005

By the way, how come there isn't an ejection protocol for the passenger cabin? I'm sure it would cost boku bucks, but since the cabin is pressurized anyway (sorry Cyprus air, wouldn't help you there), couldn't the pilots slow the plane down and reduce altitude as much as possible before ejecting the entire cabin?

If you're going to go to the trouble of ejecting the entire cabin, you may as well attach a parachute to the fuselage and parachute the whole plane down. Google for "ballistic recovery system" and see what progress has been made. For airliners it remains impractical.

As far as slowing down and losing altitude is concerned---as I understand it (I only fly small planes, so I really don't know), airline pilots are trained to enter a tight spiral after decompression, which turns out to be the fastest way to lose a lot of altitude safely. The problem is that at the cruising altitudes of most airliners, the duration of "useful consciousness" without O2 is measured in seconds. If you can don your mask in that interval, good for you. If not, you will pass out and death is likely.
posted by tss at 4:51 PM on August 16, 2005

And today was the third plane crash in 2 weeks
posted by darsh at 5:50 AM on August 24, 2005