Gone by 2040:

October 13, 2005 3:23 PM

Gone by 2040:Religious Hierarchy, Japan's Passivity, The Chinese Communist Party, Auto Emissions, Monogamy, The Euro, The War on Drugs, Sovereignty... To mark their 35th year in publication Foreign Policy magazine asks 16 influential thinkers which ideas, values, or institutions will be gone by the year 2040. Also discussed on NPR radio today.
posted by StarForce5 (50 comments total)

Many of these would make excellent long bets.
posted by Rothko at 3:30 PM on October 13, 2005

What about double posts?
posted by Gyan at 3:30 PM on October 13, 2005

The first link is dupe, mea culpa, but the NPR link has an audio stream of an interview that was taped today with the editor of FP and a few other authors on the subject.
posted by StarForce5 at 3:37 PM on October 13, 2005

Coastlines, drinkable surface water, non-insect wildlife other than rodents and feral cats, American scientists...
posted by George_Spiggott at 3:40 PM on October 13, 2005

I'd be willing to bet that NPR is gone by 2040.
posted by drezdn at 3:44 PM on October 13, 2005

Web 2.0?
posted by dmd at 3:46 PM on October 13, 2005

CSI: Luna City, but not Law & Order, DRM Unit
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 3:53 PM on October 13, 2005

At long last, we will recognize that it is human to love different people at the same time.

Unless you have a Korean girlfriend. They are crazy jealous.
posted by The Jesse Helms at 3:54 PM on October 13, 2005

Don’t know about monogamy. Wolves and ducks do it. I suppose there will be a few dinosaurs like myself passionately in love with one woman. I’m not interested in anyone else. I sincerely doubt I’d get remarried or attached if something ever happened to her. Perhaps I’m a bit obessive or sentimental. I suppose that’s a male exess in some sense.
Still, I’ve only got the one penis.


But I won't miss the loss of most the others (I like anonymity). I'd like to see the loss of modesty. Wearing these damn clothes makes my caveman body itch.
posted by Smedleyman at 3:56 PM on October 13, 2005

Coastlines, drinkable surface water, non-insect wildlife other than rodents and feral cats, American scientists...
posted by George_Spiggott

So it'll be like Waterworld?
posted by billysumday at 4:06 PM on October 13, 2005

I think he meant the current coastlines as they are today...
posted by Iax at 5:01 PM on October 13, 2005

can we get rid of listophilia?
posted by allen.spaulding at 5:02 PM on October 13, 2005

so monotheism will be dead ity 2040 already ?
i don't think so, but there's hope...
posted by Substrata at 5:02 PM on October 13, 2005

so monotheism will be dead ity 2040 already ?
i don't think so, but there's hope...
posted by Substrata at 5:02 PM on October 13, 2005

That's alot of reading. I'll check back in sometime in November.
posted by snsranch at 5:10 PM on October 13, 2005

monotheism will only be dead if God wills it so.
posted by shagoth at 5:14 PM on October 13, 2005

My predictions: Gone by 2040.

1) Me.

2) About 2/3rds of the population of the United States, mostly by balkanization, but a not insignificant number to war and disease.

3) The United States

4) At least one city, population 250,000 or more, of the area currently part of the United States.

5) The Chicago Cubs will still have not won a pennant.

To be honest, these are hopeful, except the last. As technology advances, the amount of harm one angry person can cause increases. I figure by 2040, there will be enough technology and enough angry people to have wiped out humanity.
posted by eriko at 5:18 PM on October 13, 2005

The Euro? Please.
Several non-EU countries are using it, and even OPEC are considering switching to pricing oil in Euros instead of US Dollars.

The only EU countries that are not using it are the UK, Sweden and Denmark. Denmark artificially pegs its currency to the Euro.
Sweden has committed to joining the Euro, and are only exploiting a legal loophole to stall - most of the political parties are in favour of switching and referendums are not binding in Sweden.
The traditionally isolationist UK will be persuaded to fall in line when they see their own economic fortune wane compared to the rest of the EU countries. The EU may have decided not to press the issue because integrating the pound now could be detrimental if the UK economy goes into decline - it'd be better to wait until it declines and starts to pick up again. Buy cheap and all that.
posted by spazzm at 5:19 PM on October 13, 2005

Oh Wong Kar Wai couldn't they have waited 6 more years?
posted by shoepal at 5:20 PM on October 13, 2005

Foreign Policy Magazine will be gone by 2010.
posted by wendell at 5:27 PM on October 13, 2005

Japanese Passivity
Here Today, Gone Tomorrow

By Shintaro Ishihara
Japan now entrusts its survival to the United States, has forsaken independent thinking, and has become spineless. .... It is ironic that the Japanese economy—especially in the financial sector—is susceptible to plunder by the very Americans who were originally supposed to be our patrons. .... One critical factor will be where China—with its growing military and stubborn Communist Party—casts its gaze and whether its ambitions will be pursued with the same kind of hegemonic intentions employed in Tibet.
So he then goes on to say they should rekindle their warrior spirit. So this is what we call 'genius' nowadays? Everything I've heard from Japanese here is about the passivity being still strongly ingrained in the new generation, not weakening. And the calamity that broke out in the homeland politically when they sent non-fighting troops to Iraq, I don't see it.
posted by uni verse at 5:30 PM on October 13, 2005

spazzm: Yeah but no but.

There are clearly Americans who very strongly oposed to the Euro as it may end the effective discount the US gets by being the only country in the world able to borrow and buy internationally in it's own currency. Some of them write for Foreign Affairs.

The Euro is an interesting experiment. Having a many to one relationship between fiscal and monetary policy across such diverse economies has not been tried. The US federal reserve tried it and brought the various US stae economies into step but they were arguably more similar than the European ones and there was the US Federal government to provide discipline.

The Euro is going to be, or already is, part of the basket of currencies that the Chinese are going to weight the Yuan against. This means that effectively they are ceasing to be dollar denominated and will hopefully move toward a floating exchange rate. This is in addition to, as you say, the Euro being brought in by OPEC and in particular, I believe being pushed for by Iran.

If you had to pick a major international thing that wouldn't be around the Euro isn't a bad one. It is something that is quite new and strange. But these lists are not drawn up for the purposes of prediction but rather to make people think and sell magazines. Predicting the end of Religious Heirarcy, i.e. the 2000 year old Catholic Church, is far more unlikely.
posted by sien at 5:34 PM on October 13, 2005

Interesting, sien.
How far do you think the US is willing to go to stop the Euro from usurping the dollar as world currency?
posted by spazzm at 5:42 PM on October 13, 2005

Well, I see 'murica devolving into Neanderthalism and the rest of the world passing us by. For the rest of the world visiting this country as tourists they'll probably do it by air for fear of descending amongst a 'devolved nation of murderous savages.'
Something like visiting Jurassic Park!
posted by mk1gti at 5:45 PM on October 13, 2005

Heyhey spazzm! There's nothing artificial about Denmarks peg to the Euro; it's all completely natural and organic. Done with no preservatives or artificial flavouring. Seriously, it's true the danish crown in monetary fact is just a subset of the euro, and a bunch of other currencies share the same status and you forgot about all the other smaller states and semi-states that uses it as currency like som of those troubled ex-yugoslavian states, and also the Vatican State!
For wether any states in the future will transfer to euro, who knows? In reality no one. Although I would probably be confident enough in some of the east european states to bet on it.
posted by Catfry at 5:50 PM on October 13, 2005

Switching from the petrodollar to the petroeuro as the primary international reserve currency would probably have a significant effect on the U.S. economy, as well as significant political and foreign policy ramifications. Even the low-end estimates of the benefit of the dollar as the international reserve currency is .5% of the U.S. GDP. I think the U.S. would go a long way to preserve the status of the dollar. Indeed, some suggest that the switch from the dollar to the euro by Iraq back in 2000 was a motivating factor in the war. Iraq was making out like a bandit considering the steady depreciation of the dollar against the euro. Iran is now considering making the same move. Background: [1] [2] [3].

However, I'm always skeptical of long-term predictions. Read, for example, Robert Heinlein's predictions for the year 2000, originally published in 1950, with updates in 1966 and 1980.
posted by monju_bosatsu at 5:59 PM on October 13, 2005

I wonder if we'll ever get to keep Real Reporting and loose all the propaganda?

I doubt it.
posted by Balisong at 6:03 PM on October 13, 2005

Having a many to one relationship between fiscal and monetary policy across such diverse economies has not been tried.

Isn't that exactly what the Bretton Woods arrangement was all about? That didn't go so well, but one could perhaps argue that the Europeans might have more talent for that sort of thing.

I'd bet on the euro to outlast the dollar, if for some reason I had to choose one. At the moment my only sort of currency-related bet is on gold.
posted by sfenders at 6:04 PM on October 13, 2005

You guys are a barrel of monkeys, man.
posted by keswick at 6:09 PM on October 13, 2005

The article you requested is only available in the FP Archive. A short excerpt is provided here for your reference. Log on or purchase Archive access below to read the full story.

Bleah.
posted by the_bone at 6:15 PM on October 13, 2005

Indeed, some suggest that the switch from the dollar to the euro by Iraq back in 2000 was a motivating factor in the war.

No, no, no! It was WMDs, man. And 9/11! Money had nothing to do with it, and anyone who says different is a godless communist.
posted by spazzm at 6:18 PM on October 13, 2005

Monogamy? I actually read that as "Montgomery" at first :P Hell, if we can Lose New Orleans

Someone thinks Monogamy will be gone in just 35 years? There are lots fo monogamous couples around now who will still be at it.

Less popular? Maybe, but I can see a resurgence in the US if these conservo-whackos get their way. Less popular around the world, who knows. but to think that no to people in the world will exclusivly sleep with eachother is idiotic.

The coastline If we're not talking water-world, then I don't see the point, the current coastline chagnes every day. It's not set in stone, I mean it is but, you know what I mean.

Japanese passivity Believe it or not Japan is the worlds second greatest military spender. I don't know if that money all goes to the US or not, but it can defend itself if attacked. Japan could also develop nuclear weapons quickly, given there expertise with nuclear reactors and whatnot.

But I don't think the Central Chinese government would have any interest in conquering Japan. It's happened in the past, but the Chinese in their thousands of years, have never been very expansionist. Tibet and Taiwan are places that they consider their own, part of the "Central Nation".
posted by delmoi at 6:29 PM on October 13, 2005

I'm so fixated on a future dominated by the fallout from Peak Oil that it's hard to imagine anything other than Mad Max, only with cell phones.
posted by alumshubby at 6:31 PM on October 13, 2005

Also: The Euro. Whatever. I'd be willing to bet the british pound stays around for a while, though.
posted by delmoi at 6:37 PM on October 13, 2005

Oh Wong Kar Wai couldn't they have waited 6 more years?
posted by shoepal at 5:20 PM PST on October 13 [!]

Ah. Such quality people.
posted by The Jesse Helms at 6:38 PM on October 13, 2005

5) The Chicago Cubs will still have not won a pennant.

The Cubs. They're a joke. I even like watching them and still...

I challenge you to say "The Chicago Cubs" without laughing or smiling.
posted by Smedleyman at 10:39 PM on October 13, 2005

"Someone thinks Monogamy will be gone in just 35 years?"

Not gone, but the age of dominance might be over. It's interesting to me -- as someone who is in a permanent relationship with two women -- that a Frenchman is saying this. To tell you the truth, I don't know many French polyamorists, but I can tell you that the number of people who are openly polyamorous has grown exponentially over just the last five years or so, especially in online circles.

From everything I can tell, the identification of polyamory is growing about as fast as the Internet... maybe faster, because there are a lot of non-online driven sexuality identifications out there that lend themselves to polyamory, or are, infact, a subset of polyamory.

The way many teenagers, for instance, are starting to form several trusted sexual -- but not emotional -- relationships... a kind of recreational sexuality. Another example is the "down low" culture created by black males, where they live what appears to be a heterosexual lifestyle, but organize special clubs, meetings, and events with the intent of having sex with other black men. Similarly, there seems to be some good evidence that the number of people who identify as bisexual or pansexual is increasing rapidly.

You can also see strong evidence of increased sexual fluidity in anime and manga, for instance, which has gone from a media form primarily geared towards Japanese teens to one which is worldwide. It's not a case of young American teenagers, for instance, reading about what the Japanese find perverted and titillating. It's a case of them identifying with it and, in many cases, becoming it.

My guess for monogamy isn't going to be that it dies. My guess is that we're entering an era where it's okay for the youngest generation to openly express their sexual fluidity, which would include multiple relationships, multiple sexual identities, and multiple orientations. Some might write this off as another '60s "free love" movement, which will die out, but I don't see that as likely.

What killed the free love movement was the "hangover" that came afterwards, largely due to its strong connection to illegal drugs and unsafe sex practices. The inevitable costs and ramifications -- combined with a strong societal backlash -- became all too apparent.

What we're seeing today though, is a movement away from private shame-based mores and towards openness, transparency, and responsibility. That this incredible growth of sexual fluidity is taking place during an otherwise very conservative time of war is very telling.

I think the party has finally gotten wise. It has no problem existing in a state of relative peace with its culture, and short of steel-toed jackboots, I really don't think that it will be broken up this time around.
posted by insomnia_lj at 10:55 PM on October 13, 2005

Unless you have a Korean girlfriend. They are crazy jealous.

In a country where it is de rigueur, or near enough not to matter, for married men to patronize prostitutes on a regular or occasional basis, this is unsurprising. (I base this on longstanding informal polls conducted amongst my students, all of whom are upper middle-class Korean men between the ages of 25 and 60.)

Part of the reason, perhaps, that my Korean wife is so devoted to me is that I am so devoted to her, and wouldn't consider whoring, unlike so many of her friends' husbands, and through which those women are often obligated to suffer in silence, because a 30-something woman, particularly one with children, has little to no opportunity to find any gainful employment (other than whoring, of course) in this country, should her husband leave her or she him. No options, and the men know it. A carefully stacked deck.

It's changing, slowly. But it still blows my mind. [/tangent]
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 11:22 PM on October 13, 2005

So, I'll be able to screw whoever I want to, smoke weed openly, and drive a zero-emissions car... but not until I'm almost seventy. Damn, I hope they've done something about aging by then (provided I've managed to save a few hundred billion for health care costs).
posted by nanojath at 11:36 PM on October 13, 2005

I wonder if obesity rates will also continue to grow by the year 2040. Actually it makes sense because most of the swingers that I've met are overweight. That's not a jab, just an observation.
posted by Devils Slide at 1:37 AM on October 14, 2005

"So, I'll be able to screw whoever I want to, smoke weed openly, and drive a zero-emissions car... but not until I'm almost seventy."

The good news is that you can screw whoever you want to today! So can your partner!

The bad news is that society would greatly prefer it if the two of you would lie to each other and be resentful assholes about it, at least for the time being.
posted by insomnia_lj at 2:16 AM on October 14, 2005

Millennial doom-prophesying.
posted by darukaru at 7:19 AM on October 14, 2005

So, I'll be able to screw whoever I want to, smoke weed openly

Polyamory? Sexual fluidity? So in 2040 the 1970's will return. Heh, hippies...
posted by scheptech at 7:55 AM on October 14, 2005

Somehow, this all seems like the sort of blue-sky "We'll all have flying cars" stuff that futurists come up with. Anyone can make up predictions out of thin air. I, for example, can just as easily predict that Mighty Zarthog, Tyrant of the Canadian North, will conquer us all with his legions of genetically engineered rat-men under the sinister banner of the Maple Leaf.
posted by unreason at 8:01 AM on October 14, 2005

Honestly, insomnia_lj, I prefer monogamy, which is why I believe it will be around for a long time. Whatever society may or may not "prefer," monogamy comes with a lot of positive side benefits... On the other hand, while I think actions rooted in dishonesty are intrinsically harmful to relationships, I have no issue with anyone arranging their sex lives any way they want. Diff'rent strokes.
posted by nanojath at 8:33 AM on October 14, 2005

Interesting predictions.

But I think some of the predictors have a bit of an agenda clouding their predictive powers, e.g. Shintaro Ishihara (right-wing governor of Tokyo), Lee Kuan Yew (ex-president of Singapore), Lawrence Lessig, and arguably even Peter Singer.

As for Singer's prediction, I don't think that life is any less sacrosanct than it was 100 or 1000 years ago. Possibly more so, at least in the developed world.
posted by sour cream at 12:19 PM on October 14, 2005

The pair bond is so ingrained in us that I doubt it'll ever be overtaken by polyamory. Sure, polyamorous relationships may become more accepted and commonplace (I've heard/read quite a few intelligent folks who have predicted as much), but monogamy, albeit serial monogamy, will continue to be the dominant form of romantic relationship between people imo. Even sultans and kings with hundreds of wives always seemed to have one favorite. Persians have a word for a king's favorite wife out of the whole harem - sogoli.
posted by Devils Slide at 3:53 PM on October 14, 2005

I challenge you to say "The Chicago Cubs" without laughing or smiling.

Dream on. I'm cubbie born and bred, and today, right now, I'm looking down the hole at Hell.

And would you know what Hell looks like?

Game 1: 2005 World Series: The St. Louis Cardinals vs. The Chicago White Sox.
posted by eriko at 4:59 PM on October 14, 2005

whatever society may or may not "prefer," monogamy comes with a lot of positive side benefits..

Finishing each other's sentences. Yeah. As much as I applaud the fluidity in sexual mores, I'm not at all tempted.

Call me Jubal Harshaw, but I do so love my one wife. Sex with another would merely be trite.

Game 1: 2005 World Series: The St. Louis Cardinals vs. The Chicago White Sox

I'm a Chicago fan. Rare bird I know. I like watching the Cubs more though. It's nearly impossible to predict what is going to happen. Blow a 9-2 lead or come back in the 14th, you really never know.
posted by Smedleyman at 3:18 AM on October 16, 2005

Call me Jubal Harshaw, but I do so love my one wife.

The other one... not so much.
posted by nanojath at 11:07 PM on October 16, 2005