SubscribeThe President's frustration is plainly evident: Saddam Hussein may be gone, but Iran remains defiant, and more powerful than ever. The President's male pride seems to have been aroused; he said he was going to solve the Iranian problem and he doesn't want to back down. The intensity of Bush's desire to crush this final opponent is evident in his words and his body language, but does he retain the power to carry out his threats?
From one point of view the answer seems obvious. It is too late. With the exception only of the neoconservative faithful, every close observer of the American–Iranian standoff says that the administration's threats are empty, that the United States does not have the military resources, or the political support at home, or the agreement of allies abroad, to carry out a full-scale air attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, much less to invade and occupy the country. Two of the skeptics, Gates and Mullen, are running the Pentagon, and their cautioning remarks, only a step this side of insubordination, would seem to make attack impossible. But if attack is impossible, why does Bush talk himself into an ever-tighter corner by continuing to issue threats? Does he believe Iran will cave? Are these the only words he thinks people will still listen to? Is he hoping to tie the hands of the next president? Or is he preparing to summon the power of his office to carry out the last option on the table? One hardly knows whether to take the question seriously. It seems alarmist and overexcited even to pose it when the realities are so clear. But it is impossible to be sure—Bush has a history.
In an article I wrote in these pages in March 2003, I took up a concern that has preoccupied me ever since—the danger that the war would spread to engulf the region. That article concludes:But a war to overthrow Saddam Hussein won't by itself provide a "decision outcome" in the present case because there are two rogue states with programs to build nuclear weapons in the Middle East. The theory says that both have to go, and if President Bush can be taken at his word, he thinks the same thing. To me, the implication seems clear: Iraq first, Iran next.We're not free of this danger yet.
Saddam Hussein is gone, and as a result Iran remains defiant, and more powerful than ever.
President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have rejected findings from U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran has halted a clandestine effort to build a nuclear bomb and “do not want to leave Iran in place with a nuclear program,” Hersh said.And since evidence for the “stops its weapons program” option is rejected outright, that leaves….
“They believe that their mission is to make sure that before they get out of office next year, either Iran is attacked or it stops its weapons program,” Hersh said.
if Iran is indeed responsible for killing American personnel--though I have little doubt that we're doing the same to them in a low-intensity fashion--that's a pretty cut-and-dried casus belli
The intensity of Bush's desire to crush this final opponent is evident
October 8, 2006: Bombing Iran- Rove's Plan to Wag the Elephant.Since that post, we also have these:
July 26, 2006: US plotted to invade Iran: explosive report, Rolling Stone adds new fuel to fire over possible Iran strike.
July 2, 2006: The Last Stand. See also Iran: war by October? See also The countdown to war. See also Iran: Consequences Of A War
April 8, 2006: The Iran Plans by Seymour Hersh.
February 12, 2006: It's on. Strategists at the Pentagon are drawing up plans for devastating bombing raids backed by submarine-launched ballistic missile attacks against Iran's nuclear sites
December 31, 2005: Recent reports in the German media suggest that the United States may be preparing its allies for an imminent military strike against Iran. Al Jazerra says the war has already begun.
April 2, 2005: Interview with Scott Ritter on Iran June Invasion
February 25, 2005: Iran gets bombed June 2005. "George W. Bush has received and signed off on orders for an aerial attack on Iran planned for June 2005. Its purported goal is the destruction of Iran’s alleged program to develop nuclear weapons"
October 25, 2007: Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb IranHersh is at risk of becoming the boy who cried wolf. I'm not saying it is or isn't going to happen (let's be honest and admit that nobody posting on MetaFilter knows for sure). I'm just saying the combination of past predictions not proving true, the current overstretched military, and the extremely short time before the end of this administration do not suggest that an attack on Iran is likely.
October 1, 2007: Shifting Targets - The Administration’s plan for Iran by Seymour Hersh
September 2, 2007: Considering a war with Iran
Unless the US military is totally incompetentEponysterical!
Incompetant, compromised, overextended, and fighting a war for all the wrong reasons.
posted by ornate insect at 12:55 PM on June 30 [+] [!]
In the first few days of the exercise, using surprise and unorthodox tactics, the wily 64-year-old Vietnam veteran sank most of the US expeditionary fleet in the Persian Gulf, bringing the US assault to a halt. What happened next will be familiar to anyone who ever played soldiers in the playground. Faced with an abrupt and embarrassing end to the most expensive and sophisticated military exercise in US history, the Pentagon top brass simply pretended the whole thing had not happened. They ordered their dead troops back to life and "refloated" the sunken fleet.Iran Encounter Grimly Echoes ’02 War Game
What about "term limits"
The important thing to understand about so-called "term limits" is that they are man's law, not God's Law. The God who parted the Red Sea is surely not worried about so-called "term limits". When you vote your faith you let Almighty God take care of the details.
Presidential term limits are not in the Bible. And they were not in our Constitution until added by an activist congress in 1951.
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posted by homunculus at 10:02 PM on June 29, 2008