Don't Panic! Reinhardt's Got Your Back.

February 11, 2009 8:51 AM

A mysterious internet forum poster named Reinhardt has the financial conspiracy theorists abuzz this week ahead of a predicted "event" coming this Friday. He first surfaced last July by predicting to the day the bad week in September kicked off by the Lehman Brothers collapse on the 15th.

Since then, he's made cryptic predictions on forums and his website (alternates between prophesy and calls for money) culminating with a prediction of a non-financial event on Monday that is followed by a market collapse this Friday.

His explanations read like a conspiracy greatest hits album, with shadow governments, secret groups from the Vatican, and all your favorites (except aliens). If you see conspiracy theory as entertainment, this one's got you covered. If you take them as truth, well, you already know what to do.

posted by ewagoner (47 comments total)

You forgot the batshitinsane tag!
posted by diogenes at 9:08 AM on February 11, 2009

Stopped clock.
posted by Mister_A at 9:09 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

Don't Panic! Reinhardt's Got Your Back.

Which is good for Reinhardt, since cannibalism is a bankable skill in the apocalypse.
posted by Blazecock Pileon at 9:10 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

predicted "event" = Voorhees rampage
posted by mannequito at 9:11 AM on February 11, 2009 [3 favorites]

This guy's predicated one thing, getting the day right and the details wrong, and rants about Papist Conspiracies? What bunkum. Everyone knows the economy is really run by the the Joos. And the Reptiloids.
posted by orthogonality at 9:12 AM on February 11, 2009 [2 favorites]

Remember children, market makers would never use the Internet to spread rumors through anonymous sockpuppets in order to manipulate prices of stocks they want to buy or sell short.

That would be unethical.
posted by jefflowrey at 9:15 AM on February 11, 2009 [3 favorites]

Have you ever read finance boards? There are short-sellers posting doom and gloom predictions every day, on every board, in massive quantities.
posted by smackfu at 9:15 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

This doesn't even work when I put it in the "mildly amusing" category.

Insert [Jews, Trilateral Commission, Freemasons, Vatican, CIA] here.
posted by foxy_hedgehog at 9:15 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

My god, can't these financial conspiracy theorists type??? Video is such a slooooow way to transmit information.
posted by Bovine Love at 9:17 AM on February 11, 2009

Everyone knows the economy is really run by the the Joos

Ah, but the Pope is secretly Jooish, being required to convert on ascending to the Throne of Peter.

Wheels within wheels, man...
posted by fatbird at 9:18 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

smackfu - I think we said the same thing.
posted by jefflowrey at 9:21 AM on February 11, 2009

Pileon: in the near future, "bankable" will not mean what it does today. Perhaps try rephrasing the statement as "cannibalism is a bankable skill viable diet lifestyle in the apocalypse.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:21 AM on February 11, 2009

i just hope audrey tatou is in the movie adaptation of this!
posted by barrett caulk at 9:23 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

culminating with a prediction of a non-financial event on Monday

I admit, on Monday I was trying to focus on media coverage of what Geithner was going to announce the next day, and wasn't paying much attention to non-financial news.

So: what actually happened?

Because it seems to me that if nothing important actually happened on Monday, that kinda kills his theory, no?

[Of course, I was brought up Catholic; so maybe I'm just saying what we want you to think]
posted by Infinite Jest at 9:24 AM on February 11, 2009

i have a brilliant idea - i'm going to create 200 or so internet commenters on financial boards and have each nym pick a date when the stock market's going to crash this year - one of them will be right and then i will charge 50 bucks a piece for my surefire way not to lose money in the stock market and roll in the dough

because you are my pals, i'll tell you my method for nothing, but keep it quiet

"don't buy stocks"
posted by pyramid termite at 9:25 AM on February 11, 2009

Oh man! I can't wait to not buy stocks.

Oh, damn. I don't have any money. Maybe next time.
posted by Balisong at 9:27 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

So...should I consider taking all of my money out and hiding it under the mattress or just buy a gun and some ammo? Are we headed to Mad Max or Fallout 3-style apocalypse? Help me Reinhardt, you're my only hope!
posted by rand at 9:28 AM on February 11, 2009

Once upon a time, I happened to stop in a little bar in a beachside community and hear this band. I hadn't gone to the bar specifically to hear this band, nor did I know there was going to be a band in that particular bar. However, after hearing this band, I was mightily impressed and for the next month I told everyone that this band was gonna be really big one day. Two months after I first heard the band, they released their debut album, Cracked Rearview and Hootie and the Blowfish were indeed, really big. I was hailed as a prophet of the first order, strictly by accident, and many asked me for another prediction. I refused, because the odds on getting that lucky twice were astronomical. And so, now those who witnessed my great triumph still mention how amazing it was, and not all the times I've been dead wrong since. My lesson is this: if by some stroke of cosmic luck you're really right on the money once, sit back and smile serenely and keep your fool mouth shut, no matter what anyone offers in return, because you are not truly a font of wisdom, but merely one lucky sumbitch and if you push your luck any further you'll only come off as a raving loon.
posted by 1f2frfbf at 9:29 AM on February 11, 2009 [21 favorites]

And once again, the conservative, sandwich-heavy portfolio pays off for the hungry investor!
posted by Krrrlson at 9:31 AM on February 11, 2009 [8 favorites]

Infinite Jest, that's the beauty of cryptic prophesy. Of course it came true. It was the new medical records program embedded in the Senate's stimulus bill. Or it was yesterday's market drop (concurrent with Geithner's announcement, original scheduled for Monday). Or maybe it was news out of Russia that they were defaulting on some debt. Whatever it was, it makes Reinhardt six for six, don't you know.
posted by ewagoner at 9:35 AM on February 11, 2009

Reinhardt's one successful prediction has also been made by others without claims of paranormal powers or amid a sea of inaccurate prophecies.

Minerva, a South Korean financial blogger, also accurately predicted the failure of Lehman Brothers and the October '08 fall of the won. He also claimed that the government had ordered the banks to stop buying dollars and, for this, was arrested in early January for slander.
posted by Busy Old Fool at 9:36 AM on February 11, 2009

TOYNBEE IDEA
IN DOW PORTFOLIO
RESURRECT MARKET
ON PLANET NYSE
posted by cortex at 9:37 AM on February 11, 2009 [18 favorites]

Did Hootie and the Blowfish release a new album Monday? Because that is a pretty strong sign of the apocalypse.
posted by spicynuts at 9:38 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

OFF TOPIC BUT
STILL FANTASTIC:
TOYNBEE IDEA
DIY VIDEO
posted by filthy light thief at 9:51 AM on February 11, 2009

My father was stationed in Libya in the 1950s - before Khaddafi took over. He flew KB-50s, refueling tankers, and had a number of other jobs, some of which were somewhat eyebrow raising.

One day he and some friends got in a couple of jeeps,and with a handful of the local natives, decided to head south into the desert to do some hunting. As they bounced around in the jeep, my Dad took aim at a leaping gazelle, and shot it. Through the eye. At 100 yards. With a .45 automatic pistol. Pure. Dumb. Luck.

The Arabs started screaming and howling and laughing, and asked him to "do it again! do it again!" He coolly declined, on the basis that he doesn't like to show off.

On that same tour, he won $5,000 in a poker game - and never ever, played poker again.
posted by Xoebe at 10:02 AM on February 11, 2009 [11 favorites]

Yeah, what did happen on Monday? Also, it seems pretty easy to predict that "an event" will happen. But I'm not an expert.
posted by DU at 10:33 AM on February 11, 2009

And so, now those who witnessed my great triumph still mention how amazing it was, and not all the times I've been dead wrong since.

That's known as the "Jeanne Dixon Effect".
posted by Chocolate Pickle at 10:35 AM on February 11, 2009

i'm going to create 200 or so internet commenters on financial boards and have each nym pick a date when the stock market's going to crash this year - one of them will be right and then i will charge 50 bucks a piece for my surefire way not to lose money in the stock market and roll in the dough

This is like the scam described by John Allen Paulos in at least two of his books.

1. Send out 64,000 newsletters to random mailing list recipients.
1a. 32,000 say the market will go up.
1b. 32,000 say the market will go down.
2. Follow up with 32,000 newsletters to the ones who got the RIGHT prediction.
3. Follow up with 16,000 newsletters to the ones who got the RIGHT prediction.
4. Follow up with 8,000 newsletters ....
5. Follow up with 4,000 newsletters ....
6. Follow up with 2,000 newsletters ....
7. Follow up with 1,000 newsletters ....
7a. Pitch a $1000 subscription based on your six correct predictions.
8. ???
9. Profit!
posted by dhartung at 10:40 AM on February 11, 2009 [16 favorites]

monday? i have it on reasonable authority that the sun came up . . . and later went down. don't know if that helps, du . . .
posted by barrett caulk at 10:40 AM on February 11, 2009

USA was 3 hrs away from Economic, Political Collapse in September 2008

that was scary
posted by caddis at 10:49 AM on February 11, 2009

Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
posted by zylocomotion at 10:52 AM on February 11, 2009 [4 favorites]

Oh great, Alex Chiu figured out the concept of sockpuppets.
posted by mark242 at 11:06 AM on February 11, 2009

sounds as reputable as publis enigma. meh.
posted by eatdonuts at 11:09 AM on February 11, 2009

I predict the markets will go up and down over time and in general rise slightly faster than inflation. Gimme $100.
posted by zzazazz at 11:24 AM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

...and in general rise slightly faster than inflation. Gimme $100.

Ha! After we just print a good portion of the $2.5 trillion number being thrown about? You owe ME $10,000, that I'll be putting in my wheelbarrow to go buy a can of soup...
posted by jalexei at 11:32 AM on February 11, 2009

The closer his predication inaccuracy rate is to 100%, the more likely CNN will hire him as a political commentator.
posted by troybob at 12:59 PM on February 11, 2009

In b4 "Black Swan."
posted by rusty at 1:11 PM on February 11, 2009 [1 favorite]

Uh, The Actual DJI crash was in October, although he did just say the 'event' would be in September.

Also, let's not forget this guy's comment:

_{From: [e-mail] - view profile
Date: Mon, Sep 15 2008 12:50 pm
Email: [e-mail]
Rating: (11 users)}

Hey! Don't I get any credit. I said "Crash in September." before he
said anything? Just a little credit.

posted by delmoi at 1:33 PM on February 11, 2009

Toynbee Idea (self-post; bad web design)
posted by ZenMasterThis at 9:21 PM on February 11, 2009

"This is like the scam described by John Allen Paulos in at least two of his books.
1. Send out 64,000 newsletters to random mailing list recipients..."

I am thinking this scam may not work as well in the era of the blogs and twitter, when your "victims" can and do talk to each other.
posted by applesurf at 5:34 AM on February 12, 2009

Minerva, a South Korean financial blogger, also accurately predicted the failure of Lehman Brothers and the October '08 fall of the won. He also claimed that the government had ordered the banks to stop buying dollars and, for this, was arrested in early January for slander.

Wow that's really fucked up. Arresting a blogger for merely speculating about foreign reserve policy, not cool Korea.
posted by afu at 6:27 AM on February 12, 2009 [1 favorite]

Since my throwaway story up there is the second most popular thing I've done on this site in two and one half years, I am seriously considering closing my account now, while I'm still ahead.
posted by 1f2frfbf at 10:41 AM on February 12, 2009

1f2frfbf: There are no chips in this game, so you may as well keep playing.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 3:59 PM on February 12, 2009 [1 favorite]

Where's my crash? C'mon, bring it on... I got the farm riding on this one... Or was that ill-advised?
posted by From Bklyn at 5:53 AM on February 13, 2009

With the Dax up 0.1%, the CAC up 1.1% and the FTSE down 0.3%, it's up to you, America.

Can I make the "Let's not judge Reinhardt" joke now?
posted by tapeguy at 10:00 AM on February 13, 2009

If I bought all of that ammo and boarded up my house for nothing, I'm gonna be pissed!
posted by JeffK at 10:18 AM on February 13, 2009

One of the joys of leaving loads of stuff backed up in my RSS feed is that I don't come to this "event" until a week after it didn't happen. Bollocks.
posted by argybarg at 10:31 PM on February 20, 2009