Are Aliens Building Structures Around KIC 8462852? No. (Yes?)
October 13, 2015 4:09 PM Subscribe
The Planet Hunters citizen science project has flagged a star 1400 light years away in the constellation Lyra that exhibits irregular, asymmetrical changes in brightness which have been difficult (but not impossible) to explain via natural phenomena. Mainstream media coverage is rushing to ask whether the behavior might indicate alien intelligence at work. But Reddit (and Betteridge) are skeptical.
If civilizations tend to progress up to performing cosmic engineering, it is odd that we haven't seen any of it so far. Maybe we should call it the Fermi-Kardashev paradox.
posted by Triplanetary at 4:27 PM on October 13, 2015
posted by Triplanetary at 4:27 PM on October 13, 2015
Oh, great. With our luck this will turn out to be aliens, and we'll have to call them KIC 8462852ians.
posted by nubs at 4:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [18 favorites]
posted by nubs at 4:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [18 favorites]
What ideas of massive stellar engineering like Kardashev's and Dyson's don't take into account is the possible existence of alien James Watt and alien Bobby Jindal. They assume that just because a species is intelligent, it can completely avoid politics and transcend battles over resources. Is that a prerequisite for "advanced" civilization, anyway? Maybe it can't be achieved, I dunno. I just think that even in a hive-mind, you would have individuals asserting IT IS INEFFICIENT FOR GYNE-10X TO ALLOCATE RESOURCES TO SUNSHIELDING WHEN SO MANY OF OUR BROOD SUFFER FROM MITES.
posted by Countess Elena at 4:37 PM on October 13, 2015 [46 favorites]
posted by Countess Elena at 4:37 PM on October 13, 2015 [46 favorites]
"If civilizations tend to progress up to performing cosmic engineering, it is odd that we haven't seen any of it so far. "
Not at all. We have a sample size of one that tells us vaguely intelligent life forms take about 4 billion years to form once the right planet has formed in the right zone at the right time around the right kind of star. And even then, they're incredibly self absorbed and liable to kill themselves off.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:38 PM on October 13, 2015 [15 favorites]
Not at all. We have a sample size of one that tells us vaguely intelligent life forms take about 4 billion years to form once the right planet has formed in the right zone at the right time around the right kind of star. And even then, they're incredibly self absorbed and liable to kill themselves off.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:38 PM on October 13, 2015 [15 favorites]
Not nearly soon enough.
posted by Wolfdog at 4:39 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by Wolfdog at 4:39 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
you must place it here, beside this shrubbery, only slightly
higher, so we get the two-level effect with a little path
running down the middle.
posted by shockingbluamp at 4:39 PM on October 13, 2015 [20 favorites]
Well, as long as one is considering an alien civilization that can build a Dyson swarm, you can also consider an alternative explanation: a civilization that can generate enough energy to blow up a planet (power enough to exceed the gravitational binding energy of the target), which would also form a debris cloud. Berserkers anyone?
posted by waytoomuchcoffee at 4:49 PM on October 13, 2015 [6 favorites]
posted by waytoomuchcoffee at 4:49 PM on October 13, 2015 [6 favorites]
This is sort of speculation is just batshit insane spitballing that I hope is right, because Jesus do I need a vacation.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:51 PM on October 13, 2015 [15 favorites]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:51 PM on October 13, 2015 [15 favorites]
This is pretty neat, because efforts to disprove it will probably lead to more information about how the universe works, particularly other solar systems and planets. If it is true. . .well, you know. Aliens.
Personally, I propose aliens attempting to terraform another planet after fleeing their own due to climate change.
posted by barchan at 4:51 PM on October 13, 2015 [10 favorites]
Personally, I propose aliens attempting to terraform another planet after fleeing their own due to climate change.
posted by barchan at 4:51 PM on October 13, 2015 [10 favorites]
OK, so it's weird, but it seems that we caught some comets temporarily orbiting the star, also it's possible that it could be a civilization, so we'll check on that in January. Both of the "rushing" mainstream sources note the plausible explanation and the unlikely but exciting one. And reddit for some reason. Did I miss anything?
posted by cmoj at 4:51 PM on October 13, 2015
posted by cmoj at 4:51 PM on October 13, 2015
I'll raise two objections here:
1. It's often the case in the history astronomy that so-called "unique" objects become substantially less unique with better sampling and instrumentation.
2. Models of solar system development were profoundly challenged earlier this century by the diversity of exoplanets discovered. A weakness of the model strikes me as more likely than the claim that the model it correct, and violations must be evidence of artifice.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 4:56 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
1. It's often the case in the history astronomy that so-called "unique" objects become substantially less unique with better sampling and instrumentation.
2. Models of solar system development were profoundly challenged earlier this century by the diversity of exoplanets discovered. A weakness of the model strikes me as more likely than the claim that the model it correct, and violations must be evidence of artifice.
posted by CBrachyrhynchos at 4:56 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
So, you're saying we discovered where the Kodan Armada is gathering?
posted by Thorzdad at 5:05 PM on October 13, 2015 [5 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 5:05 PM on October 13, 2015 [5 favorites]
So, there's some i-beams glittering off the shoulder of KIC 8462852. So what? I've seen it before.
posted by valkane at 5:09 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
posted by valkane at 5:09 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
I just like the "alien intelligence at work" hypothesis because it's like we're living in a Gregory Benford or Arthur C. Clarke novel instead of a Phillip K. Dick novel.
posted by Nevin at 5:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [24 favorites]
posted by Nevin at 5:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [24 favorites]
Not necessarily. It could be VALIS.
posted by Sangermaine at 5:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [13 favorites]
posted by Sangermaine at 5:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [13 favorites]
The 2nd link to the arvix pdf has one amateur astronomer and the rest of the dozen or so authors are fairly high powered people or institutions. As near as I can tell that paper has a scenario that doesn't involve alien lifeforms but it that doesn't quite fit all of the data.
but I'm not an astrophysicist. would my favorite astrophysicist Neil please weigh in?
posted by bluesky43 at 5:17 PM on October 13, 2015
but I'm not an astrophysicist. would my favorite astrophysicist Neil please weigh in?
posted by bluesky43 at 5:17 PM on October 13, 2015
As unsatisfactory as this anomaly is in terms of being proof of the existence of alien intelligence, interesting stars picked up by Kepler are probably what SETI should be focusing on in the absence of better leads. I don't think anyone is saying there is no physically possible solar system configuration which would have this appearance, merely that no familiar one does, so statistically speaking, and given the size of the universe, it seems unlikely to be aliens.
posted by feloniousmonk at 5:25 PM on October 13, 2015
posted by feloniousmonk at 5:25 PM on October 13, 2015
You really don't need to look very far to find a Dyson sphere; in fact, we all live on one's exterior.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
we'll have to call them KIC 8462852ians
That's KIC 8462852zoids, you insensitive pig.
posted by briank at 5:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
That's KIC 8462852zoids, you insensitive pig.
posted by briank at 5:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [12 favorites]
I don't see this star in map view, what mods do I need to install?
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:00 PM on October 13, 2015
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:00 PM on October 13, 2015
The paper (arXiv link in post) has well-regarded authors (including Fabrycky and Rappaport among others). Their favored theory is occultation by circumstellar dust clumps (section 4.4), and specifically "a scenario in which the dimming events are caused by the passage of a series of chunks of a broken-up comet. These would have to have since spread around the orbit, and may be continuing to fragment to cause the erratic nature of the observed dips."
They agree that it isn't ideal, but it isn't ridiculous either. More:
One way we imagine such a barrage of comets could be triggered is by the passage of a field star through the system. And, in fact, as discussed above, there is a small star nearby (∼1000 AU; Section 2.3) which, if moving near to KIC 8462852, but not bound to it, could trigger a barrage of bodies into the vicinity of the host star.
I'd put money on that before astro-engineering, unfortunately, even though I'd love it if it was really a Dyson sphere under construction...
posted by RedOrGreen at 6:16 PM on October 13, 2015
They agree that it isn't ideal, but it isn't ridiculous either. More:
One way we imagine such a barrage of comets could be triggered is by the passage of a field star through the system. And, in fact, as discussed above, there is a small star nearby (∼1000 AU; Section 2.3) which, if moving near to KIC 8462852, but not bound to it, could trigger a barrage of bodies into the vicinity of the host star.
I'd put money on that before astro-engineering, unfortunately, even though I'd love it if it was really a Dyson sphere under construction...
posted by RedOrGreen at 6:16 PM on October 13, 2015
Well, if they were, they're probably finished by now.
P.A. SYSTEM (v.o.):
TheWhiteSkull, please pick up the nearest red courtesy
ansible. TheWhiteSkull, red courtesy ansible.
posted by sebastienbailard at 7:03 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
P.A. SYSTEM (v.o.):
TheWhiteSkull, please pick up the nearest red courtesy
ansible. TheWhiteSkull, red courtesy ansible.
posted by sebastienbailard at 7:03 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
Nevin: "because it's like we're living in a Gregory Benford or Arthur C. Clarke novel instead of a Phillip K. Dick novel."
When, in fact, we're living in an off-brand Cyberpunk novel, you know, one of those 27-part series based on some RPG written by a no-name author who's slumming between higher paying Romance novels.
posted by signal at 7:06 PM on October 13, 2015 [10 favorites]
When, in fact, we're living in an off-brand Cyberpunk novel, you know, one of those 27-part series based on some RPG written by a no-name author who's slumming between higher paying Romance novels.
posted by signal at 7:06 PM on October 13, 2015 [10 favorites]
That's KIC 8462852zoids, you insensitive pig.
Dude, KIC 8462852zoids is not the preferred nomenclature. KIC 8462852-milkywayians, please.
posted by nubs at 7:21 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
Dude, KIC 8462852zoids is not the preferred nomenclature. KIC 8462852-milkywayians, please.
posted by nubs at 7:21 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
Well, if they were, they're probably finished by now.
Not if it's a government project.
posted by turbid dahlia at 7:21 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Not if it's a government project.
posted by turbid dahlia at 7:21 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Not if it's a government project.
And with the cost overruns, someone's probably filibustering the Galactic Senate.
posted by nubs at 7:26 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
And with the cost overruns, someone's probably filibustering the Galactic Senate.
posted by nubs at 7:26 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Reddit is ON IT.
If it turns out the planet is powered by misandry they are totally high fiving each other.
posted by clvrmnky at 7:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [4 favorites]
If it turns out the planet is powered by misandry they are totally high fiving each other.
posted by clvrmnky at 7:33 PM on October 13, 2015 [4 favorites]
I'm thinking maybe I should go back and read all those emails from KIC8462842@hottmail.com that are in my SPAM folder.
posted by Kabanos at 7:39 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
posted by Kabanos at 7:39 PM on October 13, 2015 [7 favorites]
Vogon construction zone?
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:50 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:50 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
Dude, KIC 8462852zoids is not the preferred nomenclature. KIC 8462852-milkywayians, please.
Such mealy-mouthed equivocation is just what I would expect from a member of the fucking KIC 8462852ean Beings' Front.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:04 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Such mealy-mouthed equivocation is just what I would expect from a member of the fucking KIC 8462852ean Beings' Front.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:04 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Dude, KIC 8462852zoids is not the preferred nomenclature. KIC 8462852-milkywayians, please.
Such mealy-mouthed equivocation is just what I would expect from a member of the fucking KIC 8462852ean Beings' Front.
Say what you will about the tenets of the Beings' Front of KIC 8462852ea, at least it's an ethos.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 9:24 PM on October 13, 2015 [11 favorites]
Such mealy-mouthed equivocation is just what I would expect from a member of the fucking KIC 8462852ean Beings' Front.
Say what you will about the tenets of the Beings' Front of KIC 8462852ea, at least it's an ethos.
posted by Jon Mitchell at 9:24 PM on October 13, 2015 [11 favorites]
To think that these could be alien megastructures is just so incredibly cool. There's probably a natural explanation for the phenomenon, but still...
posted by Nevin at 9:34 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Nevin at 9:34 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
They're building defensive bulwarks against our species, after receiving "I Love Lucy" from the original broadcasts.
posted by Brian B. at 9:34 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 9:34 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
I've heard of Damon Wayans and Marlon Wayans, and plenty more besides, but I ain't never heard of no KIC 8462852-milkywayians.
posted by quinndexter at 9:41 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by quinndexter at 9:41 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
I have to admit I find the comet swarm scenario extremely unlikely. First of all, it'd take a heck of a lot of comets to block out 20% of a star's light, and it there are that many in a small volume they'd quickly collide and convert to dust. Furthermore, if there are a lot of comets there shouldn't be much structure to the dimming -- the central limit theorem would quickly drive you to something like a Gaussian pattern -- which is very different from what was observed. Even the authors seem to find it far-fetched, and that's without delving into some of these potential problems.
As a result, I think it's almost certainly something more exotic. Whether that's something we don't understand about stars, something we don't understand about debris disks, or actual aliens remains to be seen. Needless to say, people are going to be watching the star a lot harder. A dust scenario should not be difficult to test if any future event is observed in multiple filters -- dust will dim blue light more than red light, so you'd see a different fraction of the light obscured at different wavelengths. Thus, we should learn a lot in just a few years.
posted by janewman at 10:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [8 favorites]
As a result, I think it's almost certainly something more exotic. Whether that's something we don't understand about stars, something we don't understand about debris disks, or actual aliens remains to be seen. Needless to say, people are going to be watching the star a lot harder. A dust scenario should not be difficult to test if any future event is observed in multiple filters -- dust will dim blue light more than red light, so you'd see a different fraction of the light obscured at different wavelengths. Thus, we should learn a lot in just a few years.
posted by janewman at 10:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [8 favorites]
Clearly we'd call them Kickers.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [5 favorites]
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [5 favorites]
Just to tie the week's astronomy news together -- one of the leads on the upcoming Dyson swarm paper is Jason Wright from Penn State, who was a graduate student of Geoff Marcy's (and an early signatory of the petition in sympathy of those whom Geoff harassed). It's nice to have some exciting news after a depressing few days.
posted by janewman at 10:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by janewman at 10:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
There are so many things that we explain based on what we can imagine, and then turn out to be something else entirely. Sometimes much more complex. Sometimes much simpler. We have only the tiniest pinhole view of the universe. We're worse than the blind men describing the elephant.
Maybe the explanation is aliens. But maybe it's one of the billion other physical phenomena that we haven't discovered about the universe yet.
posted by aureliobuendia at 10:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
Maybe the explanation is aliens. But maybe it's one of the billion other physical phenomena that we haven't discovered about the universe yet.
posted by aureliobuendia at 10:14 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
They assume that just because a species is intelligent, it can completely avoid politics and transcend battles over resources.
Lately, I've begun to wonder if politics is just another variant of the Great Filter.
posted by aureliobuendia at 10:15 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
Lately, I've begun to wonder if politics is just another variant of the Great Filter.
posted by aureliobuendia at 10:15 PM on October 13, 2015 [3 favorites]
Whatever it is, that star is certainly a good target for further observation!
They're building defensive bulwarks against our species, after receiving "I Love Lucy" from the original broadcasts.
But the star is 1480 light years away. If there were hypothetical aliens and they had hypothetical telescopes large enough to make out the Earth, they'd be seeing the year 535. It was the beginning of the Dark Ages.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:46 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
They're building defensive bulwarks against our species, after receiving "I Love Lucy" from the original broadcasts.
But the star is 1480 light years away. If there were hypothetical aliens and they had hypothetical telescopes large enough to make out the Earth, they'd be seeing the year 535. It was the beginning of the Dark Ages.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:46 PM on October 13, 2015 [2 favorites]
PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS PLEASE BE ALIENS
posted by lollusc at 11:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [25 favorites]
posted by lollusc at 11:11 PM on October 13, 2015 [25 favorites]
They're building defensive bulwarks against our species, after receiving "I Love Lucy" from the original broadcasts.
Or they're tearing down their existing bulwarks, for the same reason.
Vitameatavegaminazoids.
posted by Celsius1414 at 11:41 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
Or they're tearing down their existing bulwarks, for the same reason.
Vitameatavegaminazoids.
posted by Celsius1414 at 11:41 PM on October 13, 2015 [1 favorite]
How about instead of megastructures built by intelligent aliens, it's some form of space-dwelling life. Great cometary-coma-sized flocks and shoals of roving photovores and photovore-predators and photovore-parasites that have converted all of the non-stellar mass in the system into biomass. Our autonomous probes will get to have xenomorphs bursting out of them too!
posted by XMLicious at 12:09 AM on October 14, 2015 [5 favorites]
posted by XMLicious at 12:09 AM on October 14, 2015 [5 favorites]
that exhibits irregular, asymmetrical changes in brightness
My guess is that the the little star is twinkling.( I wonder what it is?)
posted by rongorongo at 12:16 AM on October 14, 2015
My guess is that the the little star is twinkling.( I wonder what it is?)
posted by rongorongo at 12:16 AM on October 14, 2015
My guess is that the the little star is twinkling.( I wonder what it is?)
Like a tea-tray in the sky?
posted by hippybear at 2:17 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Like a tea-tray in the sky?
posted by hippybear at 2:17 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Really, the plans have been on display in sub-sub-sub-basement of your local Galactic Planning Office for the required six millennia, you can't complain you didn't get prior notification.
Apathetic bloody species, we're doing you a favour.
posted by Happy Dave at 2:38 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
Apathetic bloody species, we're doing you a favour.
posted by Happy Dave at 2:38 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
The original comment thread where the citizen scientists found the giant KIC 8462852 tea-tray. The discovery of gigastructures should always be heralded by the "determined fumanchu computer stare"...
posted by ianso at 3:00 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
posted by ianso at 3:00 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
Searches Twitter for @KIC8462842, no results found.
How long did it take someone to set up a dummy account for the woman sitting next to Kim Davis? And yet nobody thought to open this account and start tweeting "Is this thing on?" and "Send more Chuck Berry"?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:41 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
How long did it take someone to set up a dummy account for the woman sitting next to Kim Davis? And yet nobody thought to open this account and start tweeting "Is this thing on?" and "Send more Chuck Berry"?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:41 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
Someone else remembers that joke! Cool! That and the WKRP turkey drop joke are joke perfection.
posted by rdr at 5:19 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by rdr at 5:19 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
So that's where the dinosaurs went.
posted by lagomorphius at 5:33 AM on October 14, 2015
posted by lagomorphius at 5:33 AM on October 14, 2015
Well, if they were, they're probably finished by now.
They probably forgot to construct additional pylons.
posted by eisenkrote at 5:34 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
They probably forgot to construct additional pylons.
posted by eisenkrote at 5:34 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
if the past is any indication, reddit being skeptical about this greatly improves my confidence in this being actual alien megastructures. those guys have been wrong about pretty much everything.
posted by young_son at 5:57 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
posted by young_son at 5:57 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
Stay tuned -- next up: Keeping Up With the KIC 8426862ians
posted by y2karl at 6:08 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by y2karl at 6:08 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Dude, KIC 8462852zoids is not the preferred nomenclature. KIC 8462852-milkywayians, please.
No. No, man. Look, we just had to rename the mountain to Denali. Used to be Peking, Beijing. Used to be Calcutta, Kolkata. Used to be Bombay, now Mumbai. The natives get what they want. So, why learn a name when it's doomed?
We'll send'em a message and ask'em. See you in 2800 years.
posted by Twang at 6:41 AM on October 14, 2015
No. No, man. Look, we just had to rename the mountain to Denali. Used to be Peking, Beijing. Used to be Calcutta, Kolkata. Used to be Bombay, now Mumbai. The natives get what they want. So, why learn a name when it's doomed?
We'll send'em a message and ask'em. See you in 2800 years.
posted by Twang at 6:41 AM on October 14, 2015
Sadly I reach the conclusion that it'll be similar to global warming - something acknowledged but ignored by most people, and worked on by a dedicated team of scientists with little funding.
Oh, like Carrie Vaughn's "The Best We Can"?
posted by thecaddy at 7:24 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
Oh, like Carrie Vaughn's "The Best We Can"?
posted by thecaddy at 7:24 AM on October 14, 2015 [1 favorite]
I'm disappointed there's not more discussion about what this actually could be.
posted by agregoli at 7:29 AM on October 14, 2015
posted by agregoli at 7:29 AM on October 14, 2015
Oh .. well if Reddit is skeptical about this then I guess we can all rest easy now.
posted by AGameOfMoans at 7:46 AM on October 14, 2015
posted by AGameOfMoans at 7:46 AM on October 14, 2015
(also that first link does not actually link to anything directly related to this story so it's pretty useless - FYI )
posted by AGameOfMoans at 7:47 AM on October 14, 2015
posted by AGameOfMoans at 7:47 AM on October 14, 2015
> I'm disappointed there's not more discussion about what this actually could be.
Yes, that's unfortunate, but all we really have to go on is what's in the paper - see my comment up there summarizing their bottom line, and janewman's skeptical take on it.
Or there's the Bad Astronomer take on it: "Did Astronomers Find Evidence of an Alien Civilization? Probably Not. But Still Cool."
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:47 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
Yes, that's unfortunate, but all we really have to go on is what's in the paper - see my comment up there summarizing their bottom line, and janewman's skeptical take on it.
Or there's the Bad Astronomer take on it: "Did Astronomers Find Evidence of an Alien Civilization? Probably Not. But Still Cool."
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:47 AM on October 14, 2015 [3 favorites]
I'm disappointed there's not more discussion about what this actually could be.
Part of it is the huge problem we have with science journalism these days; it's not about a thoughtful discussion, it's about picking up on the most sensational aspect/possibility and creating your clickbait headline. Part of it is that, based on what I'm reading, we just don't know what this actually could be. Doesn't look like enough dust is present to be two planetary bodies colliding; and if it's comets, there have to be an awful lot of them to block out 22% of the light. What it most likely indicates is a big gap in our understanding of the formation of solar systems and/or the dynamics of solar systems when you have another star close by or that there's something else we really don't understand yet about this universe. It could be a very rare phenomenon that we've caught because Kepler looked at more than 100,000 stars as part of this mission.
More study is needed, but science progresses by taking these moments where we go "that's really odd and unexpected" and then formulating some hypotheses about why that could be and then testing them. They don't have to be likely, just testable, and scanning for radio signals as a means of ruling out the idea of intelligent life mucking about on a large scale out there moves us a little closer to understanding, plus we have those telescopes already doing that work, so might as well point them in that direction for a while.
If it turns out to be the case that it is alien life, I predict about 18-24 months of a bunch of general wackiness in society about the idea that we aren't alone, followed by a deep understanding of the fact that space is really really really big, and that any message we send is going to take about 1400 years to get there, and then 1400 years to hear back (and it will be even longer if we try to send a probe or anything), and most everyone will go back to their normal lives of consuming mass media. If we're lucky, space exploration and science will get a boost as a result of the discovery, but it won't last long except for the components attached to making sure we can defend ourselves. There will be an international committee struck to compose a message to beam out there, but once it bogs down, some nation(s) will go rogue and beam something out there. A few millennia later, the extermination fleet will arrive to ensure our particular infestation doesn't spread any further.
posted by nubs at 10:51 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
Part of it is the huge problem we have with science journalism these days; it's not about a thoughtful discussion, it's about picking up on the most sensational aspect/possibility and creating your clickbait headline. Part of it is that, based on what I'm reading, we just don't know what this actually could be. Doesn't look like enough dust is present to be two planetary bodies colliding; and if it's comets, there have to be an awful lot of them to block out 22% of the light. What it most likely indicates is a big gap in our understanding of the formation of solar systems and/or the dynamics of solar systems when you have another star close by or that there's something else we really don't understand yet about this universe. It could be a very rare phenomenon that we've caught because Kepler looked at more than 100,000 stars as part of this mission.
More study is needed, but science progresses by taking these moments where we go "that's really odd and unexpected" and then formulating some hypotheses about why that could be and then testing them. They don't have to be likely, just testable, and scanning for radio signals as a means of ruling out the idea of intelligent life mucking about on a large scale out there moves us a little closer to understanding, plus we have those telescopes already doing that work, so might as well point them in that direction for a while.
If it turns out to be the case that it is alien life, I predict about 18-24 months of a bunch of general wackiness in society about the idea that we aren't alone, followed by a deep understanding of the fact that space is really really really big, and that any message we send is going to take about 1400 years to get there, and then 1400 years to hear back (and it will be even longer if we try to send a probe or anything), and most everyone will go back to their normal lives of consuming mass media. If we're lucky, space exploration and science will get a boost as a result of the discovery, but it won't last long except for the components attached to making sure we can defend ourselves. There will be an international committee struck to compose a message to beam out there, but once it bogs down, some nation(s) will go rogue and beam something out there. A few millennia later, the extermination fleet will arrive to ensure our particular infestation doesn't spread any further.
posted by nubs at 10:51 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
The paper does contain my favourite sentence in science: We have no current hypothesis to explain this signal.
I don't mind mainstream science reporting that leads on the most speculative or spectacular explanation of some new thing, provided it's put in proper context in the rest of the piece. People who are already into whatever sort of science it is might roll their eyes a bit, but just the right bit of showmanship is no bad thing. "The internet is buzzing with news of a strange observation from deep space that so far defies explanation. Aliens? Probably not, but astronomers say the unique phenomenon, found by volunteers scanning data from the Kepler planet-hunting mission, can't be explained by any of our current models of how solar systems evolve." (etc, etc)
Suckering people in to feed them the good stuff is part of the game. Just make sure you deliver on the good stuff.
posted by Devonian at 11:16 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
I don't mind mainstream science reporting that leads on the most speculative or spectacular explanation of some new thing, provided it's put in proper context in the rest of the piece. People who are already into whatever sort of science it is might roll their eyes a bit, but just the right bit of showmanship is no bad thing. "The internet is buzzing with news of a strange observation from deep space that so far defies explanation. Aliens? Probably not, but astronomers say the unique phenomenon, found by volunteers scanning data from the Kepler planet-hunting mission, can't be explained by any of our current models of how solar systems evolve." (etc, etc)
Suckering people in to feed them the good stuff is part of the game. Just make sure you deliver on the good stuff.
posted by Devonian at 11:16 AM on October 14, 2015 [2 favorites]
It's morse code! It says B-E-S-U-R-E-T-O-D-R-I-N-K-Y-O-U-R-O
...damnit
posted by ymgve at 11:42 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
...damnit
posted by ymgve at 11:42 AM on October 14, 2015 [4 favorites]
Here's some speculation on what sort of manufactured structure could produce a light signature of this sort:
Advanced civilisations need energy, and we can expect that they will seek to capture as much radiation as possible from their sun. The idea behind a Dyson sphere is that you maximise this by enclosing the sun altogether. The problem with that is that you would need active engineering to stabilise it against the sun's gravity, like ion drives that are constantly pushing the surface of the shell outwards.
A better - and simpler - idea is to just use swarms of orbiting solar panels. At some point you will fill an orbit, so you place a second orbiting ring of panels at an angle to the first, and then a third ring at an angle to the first two. Inner rings will shadow the outer rings at the points where they cross, so you might want to have many rings crossing at the same points - like satellites in transpolar orbits.
The steepness of the angle at which the rings "cross" (from the perspective of a viewer from outside) determines how long an inner ring will shadow an outer ring at their orbital poles. If the angle is shallow the period of shadow will be long. On the other hand, if the angle is steep then it will be difficult to transit between the rings. It's a tradeoff, which implies that you would accept some shadowing in exchange for convenience.
The ease of crossing between orbits will determine the order in which the rings are filled. It isn't necessarily easier to fill each ring before beginning the next one: if you're constructing the satellites in a single location it is probably easier to build a number of rings simultaneously so that you can release the satellites with the right vector to maintain distinct polar crossings. During the construction phase you will end up with many partially-constructed rings.
Here's how a star with these satellites would look from a great distance: it would be like an orange with a couple of segments missing, one from each side. Light would still shine through the obscured segments but it would be dimmed. During the construction phase the gaps in the rings will appear to merge and separate depending on their orbital periods, which means the obscured segments will vary in brightness and the sharpness with which they appear.
I think this would explain the light signature from KIC 8462852. It doesn't mean it's true; it doesn't even mean that it's likely to be true, but it's more plausible than the suggested partially-constructed Dyson sphere.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:00 PM on October 14, 2015 [8 favorites]
Advanced civilisations need energy, and we can expect that they will seek to capture as much radiation as possible from their sun. The idea behind a Dyson sphere is that you maximise this by enclosing the sun altogether. The problem with that is that you would need active engineering to stabilise it against the sun's gravity, like ion drives that are constantly pushing the surface of the shell outwards.
A better - and simpler - idea is to just use swarms of orbiting solar panels. At some point you will fill an orbit, so you place a second orbiting ring of panels at an angle to the first, and then a third ring at an angle to the first two. Inner rings will shadow the outer rings at the points where they cross, so you might want to have many rings crossing at the same points - like satellites in transpolar orbits.
The steepness of the angle at which the rings "cross" (from the perspective of a viewer from outside) determines how long an inner ring will shadow an outer ring at their orbital poles. If the angle is shallow the period of shadow will be long. On the other hand, if the angle is steep then it will be difficult to transit between the rings. It's a tradeoff, which implies that you would accept some shadowing in exchange for convenience.
The ease of crossing between orbits will determine the order in which the rings are filled. It isn't necessarily easier to fill each ring before beginning the next one: if you're constructing the satellites in a single location it is probably easier to build a number of rings simultaneously so that you can release the satellites with the right vector to maintain distinct polar crossings. During the construction phase you will end up with many partially-constructed rings.
Here's how a star with these satellites would look from a great distance: it would be like an orange with a couple of segments missing, one from each side. Light would still shine through the obscured segments but it would be dimmed. During the construction phase the gaps in the rings will appear to merge and separate depending on their orbital periods, which means the obscured segments will vary in brightness and the sharpness with which they appear.
I think this would explain the light signature from KIC 8462852. It doesn't mean it's true; it doesn't even mean that it's likely to be true, but it's more plausible than the suggested partially-constructed Dyson sphere.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:00 PM on October 14, 2015 [8 favorites]
sploosh.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:46 PM on October 14, 2015
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 9:46 PM on October 14, 2015
Jason Wright just posted about it.
I’m really glad that Tabby’s star is getting so much media coverage. It’s a great mystery!posted by zamboni at 7:18 AM on October 15, 2015
But I am a bit embarrassed about the less responsible reporting about aliens — especially since we didn’t have anything ready to show our professional colleagues so that they can give reporters informed takes on it.
I usually don’t post papers prior to acceptance, but we have a favorable referee’s report and everyone’s asking, so since the Internet seems to be eating this up, we’ll post to the arXiv today, I hope.
Here's the paper:
The Ĝ Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. IV. The Signatures and Information Content of Transiting Megastructures
Abstract is fairly straightforward, but here's an excerpt:
Arnold (2005), Forgan (2013), and Korpela et al. (2015) noted that planet-sized artificial structures could be discovered with Kepler as they transit their host star. We present a general discussion of transiting megastructures, and enumerate ten potential ways their anomalous silhouettes, orbits, and transmission properties would distinguish them from exoplanets. We also enumerate the natural sources of such signatures.
Several anomalous objects, such as KIC 12557548 and CoRoT-29, have variability in depth consistent with Arnold's prediction and/or an asymmetric shape consistent with Forgan's model. Since well motivated physical models have so far provided natural explanations for these signals, the ETI hypothesis is not warranted for these objects, but they still serve as useful examples of how nonstandard transit signatures might be identified and interpreted in a SETI context. Boyajian et al. 2015 recently announced KIC 8462852, an object with a bizarre light curve consistent with a "swarm" of megastructures. We suggest this is an outstanding SETI target. [...] (My bolding.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:05 PM on October 15, 2015 [2 favorites]
The Ĝ Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. IV. The Signatures and Information Content of Transiting Megastructures
Abstract is fairly straightforward, but here's an excerpt:
Arnold (2005), Forgan (2013), and Korpela et al. (2015) noted that planet-sized artificial structures could be discovered with Kepler as they transit their host star. We present a general discussion of transiting megastructures, and enumerate ten potential ways their anomalous silhouettes, orbits, and transmission properties would distinguish them from exoplanets. We also enumerate the natural sources of such signatures.
Several anomalous objects, such as KIC 12557548 and CoRoT-29, have variability in depth consistent with Arnold's prediction and/or an asymmetric shape consistent with Forgan's model. Since well motivated physical models have so far provided natural explanations for these signals, the ETI hypothesis is not warranted for these objects, but they still serve as useful examples of how nonstandard transit signatures might be identified and interpreted in a SETI context. Boyajian et al. 2015 recently announced KIC 8462852, an object with a bizarre light curve consistent with a "swarm" of megastructures. We suggest this is an outstanding SETI target. [...] (My bolding.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:05 PM on October 15, 2015 [2 favorites]
Thanks for the link to the paper! Note that the bold text doesn't refer to KIC 8462852, but rather two other previously-discovered unusual transients.
posted by janewman at 8:55 PM on October 15, 2015
posted by janewman at 8:55 PM on October 15, 2015
Aw, I was looking for this thread and didn't find it, so had just finished putting together an FPP when I found this! FWIW, here's what I put together:
--
KIC 8462852 is a star around 1,500 light years away, one of hundreds of thousands that the NASA Kepler mission's been observing to find exoplanets. But something's weird with KIC 8462852: the dips in light that Kepler looks for to find planets aren't regular, like planets would be. And some of them are big - 15% and 22%. We don't have a good explanation of natural processes (it might be comets?) that might cause these observations, which means we haven't ruled out giant, alien megastructures around that star (less likely than comets, but much more exciting).
Even Phil Plait (previously), the Bad Astronomer, thinks the hypothesis is interesting (main post link). Sure, he's skeptical because the alien scenario is unlikely, but as he points out, the cost of an observation is low and any results advance our understanding.
In the meantime, this is the same Kepler mission that's already confirmed 1,030 planets outside our own solar system, including ones that lie in a star's habitable zone.
The obligatory More:
* The original paper, Planet Hunters X. KIC 8462852 - Where's the Flux? by Tabetha Boyajian et al, Astronomer Royale at Yale University
* Jason Wright's blog post about KIC 8462852
* A preprint on arxiv of The Ĝ Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. IV. The Signatures and Information Content of Transiting Megastructures by Jason Wright and Kim Cartier et al
More media coverage:
The Most Mysterious Star in Our Galaxy - The Atlantic
Has Kepler Discovered an Alien Megastructure? - Discovery
posted by danhon at 12:24 PM on October 16, 2015 [10 favorites]
--
KIC 8462852 is a star around 1,500 light years away, one of hundreds of thousands that the NASA Kepler mission's been observing to find exoplanets. But something's weird with KIC 8462852: the dips in light that Kepler looks for to find planets aren't regular, like planets would be. And some of them are big - 15% and 22%. We don't have a good explanation of natural processes (it might be comets?) that might cause these observations, which means we haven't ruled out giant, alien megastructures around that star (less likely than comets, but much more exciting).
Even Phil Plait (previously), the Bad Astronomer, thinks the hypothesis is interesting (main post link). Sure, he's skeptical because the alien scenario is unlikely, but as he points out, the cost of an observation is low and any results advance our understanding.
In the meantime, this is the same Kepler mission that's already confirmed 1,030 planets outside our own solar system, including ones that lie in a star's habitable zone.
The obligatory More:
* The original paper, Planet Hunters X. KIC 8462852 - Where's the Flux? by Tabetha Boyajian et al, Astronomer Royale at Yale University
* Jason Wright's blog post about KIC 8462852
* A preprint on arxiv of The Ĝ Search for Extraterrestrial Civilizations with Large Energy Supplies. IV. The Signatures and Information Content of Transiting Megastructures by Jason Wright and Kim Cartier et al
More media coverage:
The Most Mysterious Star in Our Galaxy - The Atlantic
Has Kepler Discovered an Alien Megastructure? - Discovery
posted by danhon at 12:24 PM on October 16, 2015 [10 favorites]
^ That's an interesting finding. It seems to contradict other studies that say the universe is middle aged or older.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:44 PM on October 22, 2015
posted by Kevin Street at 3:44 PM on October 22, 2015
That So-Called Alien Megastructure Could Just Be a Distorted Star
posted by homunculus at 12:38 AM on October 28, 2015
posted by homunculus at 12:38 AM on October 28, 2015
The way I look at it, let's say that propositions like this have a 1/10,000 chance of being true (i.e., an astronomer would be willing to offer $10,000 for a chance to win $1 if it were false). If that's the case, then we only need about 7,000 propositions of this sort before at least one of them is more likely than not! So what we need to do, obviously, is have many more of these theories; if we can get the rate up to one per day we'll discover aliens within a few decades.
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:46 AM on October 28, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:46 AM on October 28, 2015
Stephen Colbert, Neil Degrasse Tyson, and Seth MacFarlane discuss KIC 8462852
NDT: Excuse me! Just because you don't understand what you're looking at does not mean it's aliens.posted by XMLicious at 4:43 PM on November 3, 2015 [3 favorites]
SC: Right, it could be God.
« Older Tables turning | "About $43,000 a year." Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 4:24 PM on October 13, 2015 [67 favorites]