Canada federal election 2015
October 18, 2015 11:36 AM   Subscribe

"We’re now in the home stretch of Canada’s federal election campaign — at seventy-eight days, the longest in modern Canadian history and the most important since 1988, when free trade with the United States was the defining issue. For the first time in Canadian history, it is a close three-way race between the ruling Conservatives, the centrist Liberals, and the social-democratic New Democratic Party (NDP)."

Ending Harperism, in Jacobin Magazine, continued:
"While the NDP held a slight lead at the beginning of the campaign, the Liberals have since overtaken them. The party is now expected to finish third in Monday’s election. The Liberals have managed to capture the electorate’s desire for change after nine years of Conservative rule... Even for leftists generally dispirited by electoral politics, the prospect of an end to Harperism is tantalizing."

*The Tyee - Harper, Serial Abuser of Power: The Evidence Compiled:
"The Tyee's full, updated list of 70 Harper government assaults on democracy and the law."
*The Guardian - Stephen Harper: master manipulator
"Despite several scandals worthy of Watergate over the past decade, Stephen Harper could win a fourth Canadian election next week."
*The Atlantic - Why David Frum Is Wrong About Stephen Harper and Canada's Conservative Party
*National Observer - Special Report: Canada's 2015 Federal Election Campaign

(also previously on MeFi: The Closing of the Canadian Mind & Vanishing Canada: Why we’re all losers in Ottawa’s war on data)

It's not just leftists who are dissatisfied with Harper, however. The Globe & Mail endorses the Tories, but not Harper. Danny Williams, the former Newfoundland premier, calls Harper "a prime minister we can't trust". Conrad Black thinks "Stephen Harper did many great things for this country, but he hung on to power a little too long" and adds "...We really cannot have another four years of government by a sadistic Victorian schoolmaster." And in a late twist, Lynton Crosby abandons Harper: "The Australian dirty tricks strategist brought in last month to salvage Stephen Harper’s re-election campaign has abandoned the Conservatives, according to the spin doctor’s partner."

"[Harper] has been putting the race card on the table in this campaign," [says Mulcair, the NDP leader]. The niqab has dominated political debate in the last few weeks of the campaign. The Federal Court of Appeal last month struck down a 2011 Conservative ban on wearing the Muslim veil while taking the citizenship oath. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has said his party will examine a wider ban on the niqab for federal public servants, in line with proposed Quebec legislation the federal Conservatives have publicly supported in the past. (source: CBC; and previously on MeFi, "Barbaric Cultural Practices")

But the niqab issue proved effective in that the NDP, who were in a slight lead when the campaign began in August, have dropped to third place.
Macleans reports: "Since the outset of the campaign, the NDP leader has been dogged with accusations of political pandering—of changing his message, depending on the audience. Yet, here he was in Quebec, his party’s base, and the province where anti-niqab sentiment is at its highest, saying exactly what much of his electorate doesn’t want to hear. Mulcair is nothing if not calculating, and perhaps he has calculated that the niqab isn’t nearly the electoral millstone some of his opponents hope it to be. That is a hell of a gamble."

This Globe & Mail piece's take is that Harper wanted the niqab to divide and conquer – but that has backfired:
The ABH [Anybody-But-Harper] voters have been watching each other’s potential behaviour, through opinion polls, looking for a signal as to which horse to back – the Liberals or the NDP. To have any hope of winning the election, the Conservatives had to keep the ABH vote split roughly evenly between the two opposition parties. They needed to ensure that neither the NDP nor Liberals broke out ahead. All of the above is widely understood.

What’s not understood is that the Conservatives themselves provided the break-out signal to the ABH vote. By pressing the niqab issue, starting in mid-September, they helped cause a sharp downturn in already soft NDP support in Quebec. (Anti-niqab sentiments are strong in the province, yet NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has defended the right of women to wear the dress in citizenship ceremonies.) As soon as the NDP poll numbers turned south in Quebec, the probability that the NDP would win enough seats to form the government dropped precipitously, given the importance of the NDP’s Quebec caucus to the party’s election hopes.

This was a signal to the ABH vote across the country to shift to the Liberals. ABH opinion leaders immediately recognized the implications of the Quebec developments; it took about another two weeks for those implications to be communicated through the ABH crowd and felt strongly in the polls, especially in Ontario. The Liberal Leader, Justin Trudeau, helped the shift by performing well on the stump and in debates..."
But don't hold out for a Liberal-NDP coalition, no matter the outcome tomorrow night: The Canadian Press reports that "potential Liberal, NDP co-operation in minority government situation could be difficult, Mulcair says". However, "last weekend, Mulcair vehemently ruled out propping up a Stephen Harper-led minority government under any circumstances. He said Tuesday that he would vote against a Conservative throne speech, even if it meant triggering another election. Trudeau, also on the campaign trail, took a similar tough stand, saying there would be no way he would allow Harper to continue to be prime minister."

*CBC - Bill C-51: How Trudeau's support of the anti-terror bill could help the NDP
*VICE - Today's NDP Is Not Your Grandfather’s Progressive Party
*The Tyee - Scared Yet? How Fear Hijacked Campaign 2015

Here is a timeline of the 2015 election campaign so far.

Elections Canada reported on Oct. 14th: "According to the preliminary figures, some 3.6 million electors voted at the advance polls in this general election. This is a 71% increase from the 2,100,855 electors who voted in advance in the 2011 general election... Over 850,000 Canadians voted on Friday and over 1.2 million on Monday, representing the two busiest days of advance voting ever."
The CBC continues: "The polls suggest that if an election were held today, it would likely be a toss-up between the Liberals and Conservatives. But with a week to go until election day, there is plenty of time for voting intentions to shift significantly."

*CBC, again - Elections Canada bracing for heavy voter turnout on Oct. 19
*Vancouver Sun - Voter registration glitch keeps growing
*The Star - Fair Elections Act will bring big changes on voting day: "This election will test the Fair Elections Act, which critics fear will leave homeless and First Nations unable to vote."

*Canadian Election Watch (currently) has the Liberals in the lead for seats in its projection, predicting a minority Liberal government
*CBC's Poll Tracker is currently projecting a Liberal minority government
*ThreeHundredEight (founded by Éric Grenier, who also provides the CBC's Poll Tracker) gives 2015 Canadian federal election riding projections. ("These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.")

The Tyee: Four Reasons to Stop Sharing Nationwide Election Polls

I’m Voting Strategically Because I Hate Strategic Voting
I hate voting for a party that has no chance of winning, and I hate compromising and voting for a less-awesome party. In the past, I’ve always thought, well, I have to vote for what I think is right...

In 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2011 I used this approach and voted for my favourite—and watched my vote go down the toilet. My lofty and righteous values not only had no impact whatsoever on moving the government towards my ideals—in 2011, my vote in fact helped to elect the party I like least to a majority, so they had free rein to wreck the country for the next four years... This year, finally, we have a commitment from the three left-leaning parties that they will work together to change our broken voting system. That means, if we can at the very least stop the Conservative party from getting a majority… NOBODY WILL EVER AGAIN HAVE TO VOTE STRATEGICALLY.

We will get proportional representation, which means that 39% of votes = 39% of seats. Not 53%. It means we can vote for our favourites, and it will actually help them win seats in the House.
Leadnow's #VoteTogether campaign has "identified the key swing ridings where voters who want change can vote together to ensure that Prime Minister Harper will be defeated. As a community, we've collected vote pledges, conducted local polling and chosen the candidates in these ridings with the best chance of defeating the Conservatives." *Rick Mercer Report: Rick's Rant - Two Weeks 'til the Election
*Ricochet: Whoa Canada is a new film by the irrepressible band of pranksters and digital agitators known as Shit Harper Did. It's a beautifully constructed documentary on the reality of state surveillance in Canada, and you can watch the whole thing below..."
*VICE: We Asked the Ladies of "Drunk Feminist Films" to Booze Their Way Through Federal Election Ads
*VICE: "Anyway, back in Newfoundland and Labrador—where flipping off the federal Conservatives is basically a national pastime—there's a movement stirring to leverage one of the province's most "barbaric cultural practices" into a celebration of the democratic right to vote with a covered face. Any Mummers 'Lowed to Vote is encouraging Newfoundlander and Labradorians to doll up in their finest mummering gear, mosey on over to the polling booth, and slam dunk a ballot into the box..."

previously on MeFi for this election cycle:
*Vote-swapping in 16 ridings
*#Harperman
*Blue Rodeo's protest song "Stealing All My Dreams"
*Let's talk about the issues, eh?
*keeping First Nations issues in the forefront
*"...the Canada you once knew and were so proud of, is no longer Canada."
posted by flex (1433 comments total) 110 users marked this as a favorite
 
I wasn't sure where to include this in the post, but I am very curious how (pro-Israel) Harper's prospects will fare among Jewish voters given that The Star did a piece a few days ago that discusses how Canadian Jews are second-class citizens under the Conservative government’s new citizenship law.
...There are haunting echoes of this discrimination in the new law, Bill C-24, that creates one set of rules for “Old Stock” Canadians who can never be deported, no matter what crimes they commit, and another set of rules for Canadians who either possess, or could be eligible for, a second citizenship. They can be stripped of their citizenship for committing certain crimes – even if they are convicted in countries with no respect for democracy and the rule of law...

Many Canadians are not aware how far-reaching this law could be. The provisions that could banish dual citizens can also apply to Canadians who might be able to obtain a second citizenship. This would include Canadian-born citizens who are descendants of many countries that grant citizenship to children, grandchildren and even great-grandchildren born abroad. Many countries, like Italy, Ireland, and India grant citizenship or easier access to citizenship to members of their diaspora.

Jews are second-class citizens under this law. That’s because the Law of Return gives an almost automatic right of Israeli residency and citizenship to any Jew. Every Canadian with citizenship or a right of citizenship abroad now has conditional rights to be a Canadian. It doesn’t even matter that you or your ancestral family have not lived in Israel for the past 2,000 years. Because a government official could argue that the Law of Return means you won’t be stateless if your Canadian citizenship is taken away, the second-class citizenship law applies to you.
posted by flex at 11:39 AM on October 18, 2015 [30 favorites]


Naheed Nenshi: The Canada We Hope For
posted by flex at 11:43 AM on October 18, 2015 [12 favorites]


The eye-rolling over the Globe's endorsement has been very amusing on Twitter for the last few days.
posted by figurant at 11:44 AM on October 18, 2015 [4 favorites]


I just want to say that all the work I put into this post I dedicate to Aaron (Lemurrhea), who I wish more than anything could be here sharing his thoughts with us through the election, as I know he would have done.

I hope more than anything the results tomorrow night will be an outcome he would have been at least content with.
posted by flex at 11:48 AM on October 18, 2015 [66 favorites]


Thank you for this! And hugs.
posted by lalex at 11:50 AM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Are other Canadians getting ads from Trudeau everywhere they look (Facebook, Twitter, web pages)? No one else, just Trudeau. That has got to be so effective. I've already been re-reminded like 3 times this weekend that I need to wake up early Monday to go vote.
posted by mantecol at 11:54 AM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


I don't want to derail this discussion too much into one about proportional representation, but I worry about the optimism for electoral reform. Ontario and BC have both tried to introduce it on the provincial level (BC twice), and each time, despite all the gripes about strategic voting, the electorate rejected the idea. Also, one of the dominating narratives in Western politics is that the federal government is basically chosen by Ontario and Quebec (who make up more two thirds of the country's population). That is going to be even more true if we weaken first-past-the-post ridings in favour of more population-based representation. Finally, I really don't like mixed-member proportional system proposed by the NDP, as the last thing we need is to give Parties more power to choose members of parliament instead of local voters. /pet-issue-rant
posted by Popular Ethics at 11:55 AM on October 18, 2015


I'm ready for tomorrow! I have a bottle of whiskey to celebrate Harper's defeat, and six more bottles of whiskey in case I need to mourn his victory.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 11:56 AM on October 18, 2015 [44 favorites]


so here's what we do: we reanimate the corpse of Jack Layton. I don't know how we do that, and I don't know exactly what happens after we do that, but I know that it is vitally important that we do that.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:58 AM on October 18, 2015 [17 favorites]


It seems like calling it a close 3-way race is a pretty big stretch. Popular vote polling currently has the Liberals at 36%, the Conservatives at 31%, and the NDP at 22%. That's a big enough gap, that it's vanishingly unlikely that we'll see the NDP get the most seats.

Currently, ThreeHundredEight (FiveThirtyEight's less cool Canadian counsin) is projecting 137 seats for the Liberals, 122 for the Conservatives, and 73 for the NDP. A Conservative upset is still within the realm of possibility, as is a Liberal Majority. But there's no way the NDPs pull another 50 seats out of their collective ass.
posted by 256 at 11:59 AM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


Are other Canadians getting ads from Trudeau everywhere they look (Facebook, Twitter, web pages)? No one else, just Trudeau. That has got to be so effective. I've already been re-reminded like 3 times this weekend that I need to wake up early Monday to go vote.

My daughters got one hour of youtube time watching Toopy and Binoo this morning. They were served three ads in that time span, every one of them for Justin Trudeau.
posted by 256 at 12:02 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Thank you for a fantastic post, Flex.
posted by Sing Fool Sing at 12:02 PM on October 18, 2015 [10 favorites]


the last thing we need is to give Parties more power to choose members of parliament instead of local voters.

Local voters gave us Rob Anders repeatedly,soo...
posted by Space Coyote at 12:02 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


yeah whatever ThreeHundredEight isn't taking into account the possibility of the last-minute surprise appearance of Reanimated Zombie Layton.

Nor the chance that Tommy Douglas himself may emerge from his crypt and display his powers as an immortal arch-lich.

So, y'know, take what they have to say with a grain of salt.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:03 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


so here's what we do: we reanimate the corpse of Jack Layton.
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 11:58 AM on October 18 [+] [!]


Which will be tricker than you think, as Jack Layton was cremated.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 12:08 PM on October 18, 2015 [15 favorites]


Thank you for a fantastic post, Flex.

Oh, yes! This too! I certainly didn't mean it as a criticism of the post when I pointed out that the three-way race thing was a bit of a stretch. It's just that, as an NDP supporter myself, I keep hearing this three-way dead-heat narrative repeated and it seems to be about equal parts media-fabricated drama and NDP wishful thinking.

I noticed that the reference to the three-way race in the FPP was a quote anyways, not flex's own words.
posted by 256 at 12:08 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


You know, I was just thinking to myself, I wonder what the heck is going on with those Canadian elections.

Tremendous post, Flex. Thank you.
posted by enrevanche at 12:09 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Nor the chance that Tommy Douglas himself may emerge from his crypt and display his powers as an immortal arch-lich.

Now that's what I call universal health care!
posted by oulipian at 12:11 PM on October 18, 2015 [5 favorites]


Which will be tricker than you think, as Jack Layton was cremated.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 12:08 PM on October 18 [+] [!]


dammit. that means someone will have to build robolayton instead. I've got a couple of arduino kits sitting around... how hard could it be, really?
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:12 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Now that's what I call universal health care!
posted by oulipian at 12:11 PM on October 18 [1 favorite −] Favorite added! [!]


I'm starting to understand why Scott Walker wanted to build a giant wall on the Canadian border...
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 12:13 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Thanks for posting this flex.

IS THIS WHERE I CAN YELL ABOUT THE ELECTION RESULTS IF I NEED TO?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:18 PM on October 18, 2015 [9 favorites]


YES IT IS, WE ARE HERE TO SUPPORT EACH OTHER, WHY DO YOU THINK I MADE THIS POST OMG
posted by flex at 12:21 PM on October 18, 2015 [33 favorites]


Fantastic post, lacking only the FuckHarper tag.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:22 PM on October 18, 2015 [9 favorites]


THANKS THIS IS GREAT.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:26 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


I am ashamed that I am 41 and have never voted. Until tomorrow. Fuck Harper.
posted by fourpotatoes at 12:27 PM on October 18, 2015 [13 favorites]


> Are other Canadians getting ads from Trudeau everywhere they look (Facebook, Twitter, web pages)? No one else, just Trudeau.

I haven't noticed a disproportionate number of Liberal ads, but I was at a Toronto bar to watch the Blue Jays game 5 last week, and the first political ad that came on was for the Conservatives. The bar erupted in boos, which was cool and all, but the next commercial break featured a Liberal ad and there was a lot of booing for that...basically, people booed every ad for every party until the bar starting muting the sound during commercial breaks, and even after that a few people kept booing sporadically. I think people are fucking sick of this election is the takeaway.

> I'm ready for tomorrow! I have a bottle of whiskey to celebrate Harper's defeat, and six more bottles of whiskey in case I need to mourn his victory.

My wife is out of town, and if Harper somehow wins it's going to be difficult to resist the temptation to empty our bar.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:29 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Does seem like the Cons completely miscalculated on the niqab. This was a three-way race going in, one they could have at least landed a minority government out of. But once the NDP fell aside, the moderates all went en masse back to the Liberals.

In a three-way race, you win by securing your core constituency and adding in whatever small niche groups you can. You don't win by making either opponent weaker; it only means you're opening a gap for your other opponent to become stronger. This is a core principle of the American presidential campaigns -- build a core, add on as you can, survive until the big dogs start falling by the wayside.

For a party that's held power for well over a decade, they sure don't understand how politics work. The disappointing thing is this isn't 1993 and Stephen Harper isn't Kim Campbell.
posted by dw at 12:29 PM on October 18, 2015 [4 favorites]


Chris Selley's NP column about last night's rochambeau in Etobicoke.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:35 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


Good luck, Canada.
posted by Artw at 12:37 PM on October 18, 2015


Vote Rhino.
posted by clvrmnky at 12:44 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


Seeing how much the Tories gained ground in Quebec because of the niqab non-issue prompted my spouse--who lived 20 years in the province well outside of Montreal--to go, "Fucking idiots."

I am nervous. I wish I could vote. But at least everyone we know hustled to the advance polls Thanksgiving weekend.
posted by Kitteh at 12:52 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]




Oh man, did any of you see that picture floating around Twitter last night of Rob Ford and a very uncomfortable Harper? It was surreal.
posted by Kitteh at 12:58 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


The Cons finally got around to calling our place last night. All I could do was laugh at the guy on the other end of the line before saying "you're not going to have any luck in this household". I hope I'm not laughing too soon.

My social media/media sites have also been plastered with Liberal ads the last couple of days. I have to say that I did quite like the latest hair ad.
posted by Cuke at 12:58 PM on October 18, 2015


I voted in advance last week, as I am out of town tomorrow (well, driving back to TO). Please, Canada, don't break my heart.
posted by tickingclock at 12:58 PM on October 18, 2015


Harper wanted the niqab to divide and conquer – but that has backfired:

sign recently seen on someone's lawn: I LIKE MY NEIGHBOURS. THEY MAKE GREAT SAMOSAS.

I wonder if, in his desperate attempts to divide us, Mr. Harper is actually uniting us (everybody worth knowing anyway).
posted by philip-random at 1:04 PM on October 18, 2015 [8 favorites]


@tickingclock: Same here, though I won't be home until Friday. And my riding has a strong Liberal incumbent almost certain to be re-elected, but I made the effort to vote by mail anyway because Fuck Harper.
posted by HillbillyInBC at 1:04 PM on October 18, 2015


We’re now in the home stretch of Canada’s federal election campaign — at seventy-eight days, the longest in modern Canadian history...

As a US citizen sitting through a roughly two-year-long campaign for the 2016 Presidential election, I wish I had your problems.
posted by Rangi at 1:04 PM on October 18, 2015 [11 favorites]


I was delighted how Harper trying to make the niqab a central issue in the campaign completely blew up in his face, and actually seems to mark the point when the Liberals surged ahead in the polls. Anglo-Canadians might not like the niqab, and perhaps are not comfortable with Muslims in general, but they seem to like even less having a politician blatantly call out their bigotry to score political points.
posted by Flashman at 1:05 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


The Liberal Leader, Justin Trudeau
It's just nice to see it's not just us Amuricans who deal with political dynasties.
posted by oneswellfoop at 1:10 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


If you think you have this election figured - remember what happened in the 2015 UK election

TLDR version: this past spring the pollsters were way way waaaaay wrong, predicting a minority Labour government. Instead, the Conservatives got a majority.

The worst thing about about this interminable (Canadian) election is the sheer number of polls. Why does anyone listen to these jokers anymore?

There's also the danger of the pollsters and the media trying to shape the election, especially with the stupid Leadnow "ABC" "strategic voting" campaign.

The NDP embraced strategic voting at the beginning of the election, and I think it's going to bite them in the ass (if the polls are correct that is).

Hopefully this is the last we see of strategic voting in Canada. Such a stupid, undemocratic concept.

(I'm voting Orange in YYJ, just to be clear, because the NDP candidate is truly parliamentary material)
posted by Nevin at 1:13 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Ontario and BC have both tried to introduce it on the provincial level (BC twice), and each time, despite all the gripes about strategic voting, the electorate rejected the idea.

Well, the first time BC voted 58% in favour of electoral reform even with the confusing and not particularly representative STV proposal and with the government of the day all but overtly campaigning against it.

But I trust the Liberals about as much as I trust the BC Liberals on this issue. I hope we do get something more proportional this time, but I'm really not holding my breath. More likely, the Liberals get a minority and think they can win at some point and then call an election and lose to the Conservatives and then we are right back where we started. Or the NDP and the Liberals send it out for years of study with some kind of endless commission and the government falls before the report comes back. Or we get a confusing referendum with an artificially high target and it fails and then everyone can come back and say that Canadians don't want proportional representation.

And then we can keep on fighting about strategic voting forever!
posted by ssg at 1:14 PM on October 18, 2015 [4 favorites]


I LIKE MY NEIGHBOURS. THEY MAKE GREAT SAMOSAS.

I've been corrected. It was, "I don't fear my neighbours. They make me samosas."
posted by philip-random at 1:15 PM on October 18, 2015 [9 favorites]


I voted. And I've also started every conversation in the last two weeks with any person I meet:

"Before we speak, I need to say something. Have you voted? Are you going to vote? You need to vote."
posted by Fizz at 1:15 PM on October 18, 2015 [8 favorites]


My die hard Tory-supporting family members are all posting pro-Harper memes on Facebook. Sometimes I am absolutely sure I am adopted, yet no one will admit it. Strangely, the pro-Harper memes I see are never about his record, but instead promote fear as to what the Liberal party *might* do if they win. Why do you suppose that is?

I posted this status on my own page this morning:

"I'm really bemused by all the posts and shared memes from Canadian Tory supporters who seem terrified that the Liberals or the NDP will run the country into debt. Newsflash: The Conservatives have posted seven consecutive budget deficits, and during Harper's time in office the federal debt level has risen by over 150 billion, while the total national debt has grown from 700 billion to over 1 trillion. (This is in direct contradistinction to the Liberals, who posted ten consecutive budget surpluses during the Chretien/Martin years and actually paid down some debt.) And remember that time in 2010 when Harper announced that his government would buy 65 F-35 fighter jets at a cost of $15 billion? When then Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff accused Harper of deliberately understating the cost, Harper refused to hand over documentation that would reveal the actual cost of the jets as well as the cost of a number of his other policies, even though he was found in contempt of Parliament for it. And it turned out Ignatieff was right: the cost of the jets was *twice* what Harper claimed it would be. If you really care about the country's financial well being, why would you vote for a man who not only overspends your tax dollars but lies about it? Isn't it time to take a chance on a new leader who *might* manage the country's finances more responsibly rather than voting for the prime minister who has proven that he won't?"

Sadly, I am probably wasting sweetness on the desert air. At this point those who support Harper believe so urgently in the mythos that the Conservatives are the only party that won't take away their hard-earned money and give it to those lazy poor people are all "don't talk to me about any pesky facts la la la I can't hear you".
posted by orange swan at 1:16 PM on October 18, 2015 [34 favorites]


I'm a dipper but at this point I'm just hoping the Liberals can win a minority propped up by the NDP. I'd be ok with a coalition as well. I'm not thrilled by the NDP campaign - they should really have gone with Angry Tom instead of weird old avuncular "I know how to smile... See?" Tom.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 1:16 PM on October 18, 2015 [5 favorites]


Excellent post, flex.

To me this is the first Canadian federal election where I feel that voting strategically has become paramount. Both the Liberals and NDP have things I like, and things I don't like in their platforms or track record.

Despite being kiss-ass about the 'terrorism' bill C-51, and being coy about the TPP, I'm voting Liberal in our riding because their candidate has the best chance of unseating the Conservative incumbent. I hope other Canadians are as motivated as I am to vote with the clear intention of defeating Harper.

Nevin - great point; the pollsters have been out to lunch recently, so we cannot take polls as anything definitive. At best they are a hint. If most people are as hostile to pollsters as I am, then their results must be served with a kilo of salt.
posted by Artful Codger at 1:17 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Between the Niqab thing and the 11th hour gladhanding with the Fords, Harper's team seems to have made some very bad gambles on how crazy Canadians are.

Anyhow, the biggest reason I fear a conservative minority is not because it would mean another four years of Harper, but because it almost certainly wouldn't. Despite leaning way to the left myself, I think people are a little blinded by their allegiances when they insist that Harper has been terrible for the country. I don't think we're much worse off now than we would have been with a Liberal or NDP PM in 24 Sussex these last nine years.

No, the biggest problem with a conservative minority is the constitutional clusterfuck that will follow. Not one non-Conservative MP would support his throne speech this time, and he'll do everything he can to prevent the Liberals and NDP from forming a "coalition of losers" government (if they could even get along well enough to try). So we'll end up with the Governor General playing referee again and, most likely, back at the polls in the spring. That would be a nightmare.

So, um, go Trudeau, I guess.
posted by 256 at 1:18 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


We are taking our citizenship oath on Oct 28. My wife thinks Harper personally held back our applications so we would miss the vote. Feels true somehow...
posted by piyushnz at 1:19 PM on October 18, 2015 [10 favorites]


As much as I would prefer to have the NDP sweep the election, I am thoroughly enjoying the trend of formerly staunch conservatives coming out to support the Liberals. That was an excellent strategy by Trudeau, reaching out to non-harperite tories who are equal parts embarrassed by Harper, and horrified at the spectre of an NDP victory.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 1:22 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


Thanks for the awesome post flex. I live in Calgary and will need support tomorrow. Hell, I will need it tonight when my parents come for dinner and see the Liberal lawn sign.

Every platform has something in it I don't like; but of our local candidates, the Lib was at least approachable and thoughtful when we chatted with him. And my riding is supposed to be "in play". So we will see what happens...
posted by nubs at 1:23 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


I really wish I could believe that is being paranoid plyshnz.

: [Yellow front pages]

Holy crap, someone is running scared.
posted by Mitheral at 1:24 PM on October 18, 2015 [5 favorites]


If Harper's eleventh hour acceptance of the Ford Bros. endorsement doesn't reek of clammy, sweaty desperation, I don't know what does.
posted by orange swan at 1:24 PM on October 18, 2015 [8 favorites]


How could a newspaper even pretend to have journalistic credibility after selling the entire front page? That shit is blowing my mind.
posted by zjacreman at 1:26 PM on October 18, 2015 [5 favorites]


How could a newspaper even pretend to have journalistic credibility


It's the Vancouver Sun. You just answered your own question.
posted by TheWhiteSkull at 1:29 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


On a tangent: a proposed law will revoke the Canadian citizenship of anyone convicted of various crimes if they have, or are eligible for, another citizenship, which includes, among others, anybody who is Jewish.
posted by acb at 1:30 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


BTW Andrew Coyne I think has been dropped Editorial and Comments editor of the National Post. Apparently they spiked an anti-Harper column he penned for this weekend, and he's been silent from Twitter since Thursday night (and unusually long period of inactivity for him).
posted by Nevin at 1:33 PM on October 18, 2015 [5 favorites]


I think people are a little blinded by their allegiances when they insist that Harper has been terrible for the country. I don't think we're much worse off now than we would have been with a Liberal or NDP PM in 24 Sussex these last nine years.

I think we are somewhat worse off because of Harper:
- He's an economist ffs so I didn't ever fear he'd run our economy onto the rocks, but I think he's been a poor economic steward in a couple of areas; he bet the farm on the tarsands and other resource industries, and we've been bit when the oil price tanked. And he's let other industry sectors languish
- he's changed Canada's foreign image from honest broker and defender of rights to that of just another Western neoliberal lapdog
- his tactics of getting power at almost any cost, regardless of who he has to pander to
- his Putin-style dictatorial governance, where the cabinet is reduced to being branch managers, and stonewalling is SOP
- his pursuit of an anti-crime agenda in the face of declining crime; his absolute opposition to progressive AND EFFECTIVE measures (like injection centres) for reducing drug crime and related harms
- muzzling government scientists, rejection of the climate crisis

gotta stop now, blood pressure issues.
posted by Artful Codger at 1:36 PM on October 18, 2015 [17 favorites]


Harper's anti data stance is probably his worse legacy going forward. Most of the other things he has messed up can be eventually fixed but the data we haven't collected and the data we have thrown away are gone for ever.
posted by Mitheral at 1:40 PM on October 18, 2015 [19 favorites]


Hoo-boy. Thanks, flex!

*opens first beer of the longest weekend*

The yellow front pages of the Postmedia papers (except for the National Post, which had an incoherent watercolour of Harper and some endorsement buried on page 8 or something, or so I am told) are disgusting, but not unprecedented. The Ontario Metro papers (a TorStar-owned free daily which just lost its TTC deal to 24 Hours, a vastly inferior Postmedia free daily) had at least one wrap-around ad for the NDP in the last provincial election. This was happening as early as 2013 with both free dailies in Nova Scotia and BC as well. But I agree that this huge, last minute buy of "quality" (or quality-ish) newspapers seems to be even worse.

(On preview: Nevin beat me to the Coyne story. *shakes fist*)
posted by maudlin at 1:41 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


acb: check the first comment! Also, it's not "a proposed law", it's law.
posted by flex at 1:42 PM on October 18, 2015




Not to worry! There's always money for a war!
posted by transient at 1:48 PM on October 18, 2015


C-24 is gross. I object to it on principle (and also as the father of a dual-citizen). But it's worth pointing out the "various crimes" that it allows the stripping of citizenship for are exclusively terrorism, treason, and espionage. Frankly, if you end up convicted of one of these crimes, C-24 is going to be low among your worries. Personally, C-51 bothers me a lot more.
posted by 256 at 1:49 PM on October 18, 2015


C-24 affects my children too. And terrorism, as defined by The Harper Government™, includes being an environmentalist protester - think about how that silences millions of Canadians: ‘Anti-petroleum’ movement a growing security threat to Canada, RCMP say

related tangent: "A re-elected Conservative government might look to strip dual citizens of their Canadian citizenship if they commit other heinous crimes, Stephen Harper said in a radio interview Wednesday..."
posted by flex at 1:57 PM on October 18, 2015 [11 favorites]


More links (and forgive me for any inadvertent repitition):

Ben Perrin, former PMO lawyer, ditches Harper

Nenshi's original speech (from which the recent Globe article was adapted). I prefer the original, as it emphasizes First Nations' stories far more

On the incoherent Globe endorsement:
"What your editorial really proposes is this: the government should play as minimal a role as possible. People should vote with nothing in mind but money. The Conservatives come closest to this ideal, which is why they must win again. Harper has slipped off message, and has made politics about things other than money. He has therefore become an embarrassing distraction that might get people thinking that governments can do things other than leave citizens alone. This must not continue. Otherwise, who knows what might happen. The spectre of a “bigger government footprint” is looming."

The Economist, summing up the Harper era
posted by lookoutbelow at 1:58 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


Naheed Nenshi: The CanadaPrime Minister We Hope For

ftfy
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 2:13 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


I have been following www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics for a few weeks now. It is home for many serious political wonks of all parties. There are some very good discussion of the daily polling results to be found here.
Change is in the air but it is going to be a nailbiter tomorrow night.
posted by dougzilla at 2:19 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


C-24 is gross. I object to it on principle (and also as the father of a dual-citizen). But it's worth pointing out the "various crimes" that it allows the stripping of citizenship for are exclusively terrorism, treason, and espionage. Frankly, if you end up convicted of one of these crimes, C-24 is going to be low among your worries. Personally, C-51 bothers me a lot more.

Does "inciting terrorism" fall into any of those categories? Perhaps the combination of C-24 and C-51 should bother us more than either bill in isolation.
posted by chrominance at 2:22 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


The G&M under David Walmsley is so boring and grey.
posted by Nevin at 2:42 PM on October 18, 2015


Be sure to check out the #DenounceHarper Twitter hashtag.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 3:06 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]




(Thank you for the great post, flex!)
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 3:18 PM on October 18, 2015


He followed her home. Can she keep him?

I had kind of lost faith in CBC after that Q creep and Dragon's Den and Evan Solomon (not that the latter two are the same as the Q guy at all) and a bunch of other things.

Rosie Barton (and Chris Hall on the House) have been a pleasant surprise.
posted by Nevin at 3:22 PM on October 18, 2015


Holy crap, after reading that guardian article I feel like we should bring in some UN observers for election day.
posted by piyushnz at 3:29 PM on October 18, 2015 [7 favorites]


Anyone got recommendations for following election night for us "cord cutters"? Antenna reception is pretty awful. Ever since I could vote I have enjoyed (well, that's the wrong word given outcomes, but you know) following election nights in North America; this may be the first time I don't have cable. I was going to ask on AskMe but got shy. I looked into "does anything stream" and couldn't find anything.
posted by sylvanshine at 3:35 PM on October 18, 2015


If nothing else the CBC radio one stream will be covering the results.
posted by Mitheral at 3:38 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


piyushnz, it's not the UN, but the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is already here.
posted by sardonyx at 3:41 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Look at these polling numbers from EKOS posed just a few hours ago – they show just a 7 point spread between the four parties in Quebec! Insane!

Mind you, EKOS is the only pollster not showing a major Liberal lead nationally, so either they're more accurate than the rest, or they'll have lots of splainin to do after Monday.
posted by Kabanos at 3:44 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


VICE (and their sponsor Fido) is streaming something, but you need their app. I avoid extra apps on principle, but hey, nice poster.
posted by maudlin at 3:47 PM on October 18, 2015


It's going to take me 78 days to get through all those links, flex. Excellent work.

As I mentioned in the vote-swapping thread, it's somewhat delicious that the long election campaign, which Harper called specifically because the Conservatives had a larger warchest and could outspend the other two parties to advertise how "he's Just not ready", has given Trudeau enough time to demonstrate to Canadians that he's not incompetent. In a shorter campaign, the ads would have been more effective.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:49 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Kabanos, I don't know what's up with EKOS this year, but here's their post-mortem for their underestimate of CPC numbers in 2011. (Yes, I am staying pessimistic.)
posted by maudlin at 3:51 PM on October 18, 2015


(EKOS may be pretty accurate this time, or, alternatively, they're adjusting their 2015 raw results to push the Tories a few points higher because they don't want to be caught like that again.)
posted by maudlin at 3:52 PM on October 18, 2015


Kabanos: " they show just a 7 point spread between the four parties in Quebec! Insane! "

Oh, Cons, Libs, NDP and Bloc. That makes sense. I initially thought it was Cons, Libs, NDP and Greens and I was like Whaaaa?
posted by Mitheral at 3:53 PM on October 18, 2015


Thanks, flex, fantastic post!
posted by invokeuse at 4:04 PM on October 18, 2015


Oh, Quebec. What surprises are in store this time? Je t'aime - justify my love.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:05 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Justify My Love was Madonna, not Mitsou.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:12 PM on October 18, 2015 [8 favorites]


;)
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:12 PM on October 18, 2015


Bye bye mon cowboy works pretty well for this election.

(although probably not so difficile de lui quiter)
posted by Flashman at 4:17 PM on October 18, 2015 [13 favorites]


Tomorrow night I have to go to a party bc one of my besties is leaving the country for a bit.

We don't know how much alcohol to bring, bc we're going to be feverishly checking for returns updates and the party may go from waah you're leaving but yay you to OH GOD TAKE ME WITH YOU very quickly.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:20 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


You may very well think so (even though we're talking about an Etobicoke cowboy), but these don't quite make the bar: Bye bye mon cowboy et Mon cher Stephen.

(L'original)
posted by maudlin at 4:21 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Good luck, Canada! We need a northern neighbor to look up to!
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 4:25 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]




Psst... watch John Oliver tonight.
posted by Marky at 5:15 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Magnificent post -- thank you!

I am frankly terrified for Canada at this point, and even if Harper and his gang of shithammers are finally -- finally! -- shown the door, I feel like it may be too late to reverse the damage they've done. Even the potential best result doesn't fill me with hope.

I used to be proud to be Canadian. I guess I still am, in some ways, at least in a kind of desperate nostalgia for what Canada used to be. If my fellow Canadians decide to re-elect the Conservatives, I don't think I'll be able to say even that much any more. It's a terrible feeling, and a sad place to be.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:30 PM on October 18, 2015 [15 favorites]


Points for the Mitsou reference! Now that's CanCon.
posted by Kevin Street at 6:29 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


I am frankly terrified for Canada at this point, and even if Harper and his gang of shithammers are finally -- finally! -- shown the door, I feel like it may be too late to reverse the damage they've done.

Never fear, there are a lot of good people in Canada who care about the country. As the great man said, "Courage my friends, 'tis not too late to build a better world."
posted by Nevin at 6:32 PM on October 18, 2015 [5 favorites]


Hopefully this is the last we see of s̶t̶r̶a̶t̶e̶g̶i̶c̶ ̶v̶o̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ FPTP in Canada. Such a stupid, undemocratic concept.

FIFY
posted by cotton dress sock at 6:59 PM on October 18, 2015 [4 favorites]


The Rob Ford effect will push Harper under the top.
posted by bobloblaw at 7:04 PM on October 18, 2015 [4 favorites]


Hopefully this is the last we see of s̶t̶r̶a̶t̶e̶g̶i̶c̶ ̶v̶o̶t̶i̶n̶g̶ FPTP in Canada. Such a stupid, undemocratic concept.

The problem with strategic voting in this country is that the voters don't have enough information to make that choice accurately. At the actual riding level, the parties may pay for those polls, but they aren't intended for publication. ThreeHundredEight is perfectly upfront about the fact that the riding-level predictions are basically educated guesswork for the most part, because the data just isn't publicly available.

For my parents' riding, the last published poll was done in August. In my riding, nearly a month ago in September. All the predictions I can access are based on national or provincial level polls, filtered through incumbency and historical leanings of a riding that has been radically changed due to the recent boundary modifications. If you're trying to strategically vote, no matter what your objective is, you don't have reliable information to work with unless you live in one of a very few nationally interesting ridings.

Strategic voting is great in theory. But unless everyone just decides to take Éric Grenier's numbers, highly interpolated as they are, as gospel, it's not going to work in this country.
posted by figurant at 7:15 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


For those of us Canadians living in the US, please stop calling a 78-day election campaign "long".

A 24-month election campaign is long.

78 days is an impossible dream.

Good luck Canada.
posted by GuyZero at 7:19 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


figurant - what feels different to me this time is that many more people seem to have decided to vote strategically... and also I think we may finally see an improvement in the turnout from younger voters. Rather than going to the effort of researching their ridings, I get the sense that most people will just follow the national poll results and go Liberal.

In 24 hours, I will be confirmed as a sage, or a fool.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:25 PM on October 18, 2015


If it went 79 days I'd be forced to wean my Facebook feed of friends that I've had for decades because for some reason this year everyone has decided to show how racist they actually were.

I'm still dreaming of an orange sweep and still mourning Jack.
posted by kanata at 7:25 PM on October 18, 2015 [4 favorites]


The riding level polling data is patchy, but lots of people understand their riding's demographics, history, and key issues, to some degree, by living in it. (More complex for the gerrymandered ones, yeah). The swing ridings are pretty identifiable. We've got enough info to make decent guesses, and surprise reactions (well not really, in retrospect) like Quebec's response to the niqab thing help us make more confident ones.

It's a prisoner's dilemma. It'll work if we all agree on the best outcome. (It won't if people get overconfident and try to sneak in other desired outcomes, like blocking a Lib majority or supporting their preferred unelectable party, in a swing riding, for symbolism's sake. We need to be clear on our goal and trust each other.) It only has to work once (let's hope).
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:25 PM on October 18, 2015


I guess, before I go to bed tonight, I can take some measure of comfort in the fact that nobody seems to be anticipating a Con majority.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:26 PM on October 18, 2015


As with the topics of healthcare or post-secondary costs, I think making comparisons between Canadian and US election cycles is unhelpful in the sense that we can expect better for ourselves, not just better than in the US.
posted by Evstar at 7:28 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


EKOS, via a mix of robocalls and live interviews, says there's a Liberal surge that could lead to a minority and even a majority win. There's a Shy Tory effect at work -- there was less of a push for the Liberals on robocalls than live calls -- but they aren't sharing their raw data, so they seem to think things still lean Liberal.

Riding level polls: there's been nothing public for York South-Weston, but I've been robocalled at least three times over the past month to see which local candidate I was supporting. My NDP candidate (the incumbent) also sent out a call yesterday saying that things are close, so -- I think it's close.
posted by maudlin at 7:28 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


CBC isn't streaming live coverage? Crap, I was planning on having that on (in the background at least) tomorrow night.

Actually I don't even know if I can stream CBC at all down here. Guess I should look into that. I'm not even sure I can get hockey!
posted by quaking fajita at 7:33 PM on October 18, 2015


Don't get me wrong. I'm basically voting strategically anyway (tomorrow, as soon as I can rouse myself from bed). But I don't have any confidence that my choice is the correct one for the result I'd like to achieve. There's no way I could determine that properly from the information I have in front of me. I'm just going to cast my ballot into the wishing well and hope.
posted by figurant at 7:33 PM on October 18, 2015


If you think others in your riding will face the same confusion, I think Artful Codger's reasoning is probably right, and going Liberal is the safe bet, unless you have a strong NDP incumbent.
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:41 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


I live in Alberta. Rest assured that I don't have a lot of confidence in my fellow voters.
posted by figurant at 7:42 PM on October 18, 2015 [4 favorites]


Two things though:

1) By strategic voting, we mostly mean people voting for the Liberal candidate rather than the NDP, right? Are there that many places where its the other way around (my Ontario bias is probably showing here!)
2) I don't think there are that many ridings that are truly in contention, so any strategic voting is unlikely to actually matter. But again, maybe I'm wrong?

I suppose 2) at least is the kind of question we really don't know the answer to because of the aforementioned issues with polling.

If nothing else it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
posted by quaking fajita at 7:43 PM on October 18, 2015


This is the first election in my life where I almost feel physically ill.
I am 50, and have lived most of my life in BC so you know I have seen some real shitheelisms but nothing compares to the sebaceous mendacity of Harper.
I live in one of the strongest NDP ridings in the country, so there's that, but jeebus I am worried.
My consolation though, is that Harper has to win a majority or his own party will soon be sharpening knives, so yeah, Fuck Harper indeed.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 7:44 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


In terms of getting rid of FPTP, it seems like it's going to be incredibly difficult to do. British Columbia had two referendums on adopting proportional representation (an STV scheme developed by an arms-length citizen's commission of sorts).

The first referendum came very close to passing; the second referendum overwhelmingly rejected STV.

I think at the end of the day it was too arcane and complicated to explain how STV works and why it should be adopted, so the people arguing loudest for STV in BC were simply unable to connect with referendum voters.
posted by Nevin at 7:45 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Riding level polls: there's been nothing public for York South-Weston, but I've been robocalled at least three times over the past month to see which local candidate I was supporting. My NDP candidate (the incumbent) also sent out a call yesterday saying that things are close, so -- I think it's close.

I have no idea what polls might be, but I just read an account of your incumbent in Now the other day, and he sounds like a great guy. My mom lives in York-South Weston, my family has roots there; for too long, the Nunziatas had a stranglehold on the area, and did nothing for it.
posted by jb at 8:36 PM on October 18, 2015


The worst possible outcome would be a repeat of the last election. If the next government wins a majority of the seats but not a majority of the popular vote, I think there should be public protest until a run-off election -- or something better -- is held. Who feels the same way?

In a three-party race, for example, any electoral system that allows a party to win with a hair over a third of the popular vote, securing just one more than half of the seats, resulting in 100 percent of the power is a system that's broken by design. It doesn't serve the majority of voters, and isn't something the public should put up with any more.

A run-off would be far from ideal, but it's better than nothing, and would leave a greater number of people satisfied afterwards than it would leave pissed off. (Which is, incidentally, an easy-to-relate-to measure of whether the electoral system is working.) As icing on the cake, the winning party could be required to enact some form of proportional representation.

Sure, there may be no precedent for it in Canada, but if the people insist, it could happen. The people of Iceland (for example) managed to force an equivalently unprecedented restructuring of government with little bloodshed in 2009.
posted by Verg at 8:37 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


jb, my incumbent Mike Sullivan IS a great guy. He defeated Tonks in 2011, who had been coasting on name recognition for years after squeaking past John Nunziata in 2000. (Yeah, the Nunziata ego meant he ran as an independent after splitting with the Liberals. He actually won in 97 as an independent, too.)
posted by maudlin at 8:44 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


I live in the Davenport riding, in Toronto, and I'm pretty sure the NDP incumbent, Andrew Cash, will get back in. Prior to his being elected last election it was a Liberal riding for a very long time, so at least my riding won't go Conservative.

My parents live in Perth-Wellington, in southwestern Ontario. They have a Conservative incumbent. I tried to convince them not to vote Conservative, but what will probably end up happening is my mother will vote for the Tories and my father will vote for either the Tories or for some crackpot candidate because that's his idea of a joke. My mother just told me not to get uppity when I tried to tell her about the Tories' record. Sigh.
posted by orange swan at 8:45 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


With respect to getting out the youth vote, I reminded my college students that their student association had set up a 'pledge to vote' site and that only 93 students had pledged to vote as of last Thursday. I checked again just now and it's up to 2700.

It seems the volume of youth-oriented campaigns is higher for this election than in years past: here's the Canadian Alliance of Student Association's GOTV site; the #imagineOct20th blog/hashtag combined with a series of indie concerts across the country; the Apathy is Boring campaign; a protest song from two indie bands; Rick Mercer's #VoteNation profile picture filter; and, HuffPo thinks the youth vote is going viral.

The student association has warned all us lecturers that they will be visiting as many classrooms tomorrow to remind students to vote. Nothing like this ever happened when I was an undergrad. I, for one, will welcome them and their candy.
posted by invokeuse at 8:50 PM on October 18, 2015 [9 favorites]


Oh, and of course there's the Stephen Harper Going-Away Party on Facebook.
posted by invokeuse at 8:56 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]




The abundance of information in this thread feels like a monkey paw wish to when I thought last week "I wish I knew more about the Canadian election" because now not reading it means I'm choosing to be an ignorant American rather than just a lazy one, which is to say great job, flex.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 9:06 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


Orange Pamplemousse I don't see the three territorial ridings there!
posted by dhens at 9:12 PM on October 18, 2015


The latter two write-ups dropped today, so hopefully the territories will be up soon.
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 9:15 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


There's also Wikipedia's riding level poll data page, which is variable in terms of data availability, but seems to be updated pretty regularly. (edited, bad link)
posted by cotton dress sock at 9:18 PM on October 18, 2015


In terms of getting rid of FPTP, it seems like it's going to be incredibly difficult to do...

Electoral reform is always a tough nut to crack when it comes down to referendumbs, because it's a slightly subtle concept, and so the vote tends to skew hard against it in the opinions of stupid people, because they feel more strongly against issues that they do not understand than most people in general feel about most things. Also because these referendumbs are often introduced by incumbents who are not really that enthusiastic about electoral reform, and present the questions in dubious ways.

However, there is a ray of hope. All of the main opposition parties have made some vague comments in favour of electoral reform. If (uh... when) they get a balance of power they could introduce proportional representation as a parliamentary motion, which could probably work in their collective favour in the long run. Because FPTP voting usually favours Conservative core blocks, and makes the votes of mostly stupid people count for more. But the thing is that the opposition parties would have to surrender that impossible dream of getting that sweet elusive majority at some point in the distant future.
posted by ovvl at 9:20 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


1) By strategic voting, we mostly mean people voting for the Liberal candidate rather than the NDP, right? Are there that many places where its the other way around (my Ontario bias is probably showing here!)


Yes, there are many of them. Probably more NDP than Liberal west of Ontario.
posted by ssg at 9:21 PM on October 18, 2015


And let's not forget one riding where voting strategically means voting Green!
posted by ssg at 9:25 PM on October 18, 2015


"Before we speak, I need to say something. Have you voted? Are you going to vote? You need to vote."


I can't vote, being only a resident (thanks Harper for delaying the time until I can become a citizen of this fair land). I remain hopeful since we got rid of the PC's here in Alberta earlier this year.

I told my whole team that I don't care who they vote for, but they have to vote - this election matters. It's not too late to turn the ship and claim our country back. This plastic Canuck will be proud if we can kick Harper to the curb.
posted by arcticseal at 9:26 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


Fixed link: Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2015 by constituency

There is a wealth of poll information there.

Nice post, flex! Thanks for putting it all together in a succinct way. Pity the newspapers couldn't do it as well.
posted by ashbury at 9:27 PM on October 18, 2015 [1 favorite]


You know what the biggest elephant in the room is? And what a nary a single candidate has talked about? Health reform. Federally and provincially, health budgets are taking up a huge portion of every dollar, and something has to change. It would be a political death sentence, so I'm not going to hold my breath.
posted by ashbury at 9:33 PM on October 18, 2015 [2 favorites]


Nightmare election scenario, courtesy of the Ottawa Citizen.
In aggregate, I foresee the narrowest of Tories minorities: Conservatives with 127 seats, Liberals 125, New Democrats 76, Bloc Quebecois 7, one each from the Greens and Forces et Démocratie, and a single independent (Alberta’s Brent Rathgeber). ... I’m not convinced that the trend in current public-opinion polling, which variously puts the Liberals six to seven points ahead in the final furlongs, will hold once the ballots are summed.

Pollsters consistently underestimate the Tory vote and the Conservatives will benefit from extensive television advertising buys over the final weekend, particularly during Saturday’s Blue Jays playoff game, when they substantially outspent their opponents on ads. And, if anyone will suffer from voters with second thoughts in polling booth, it surely will be Trudeau’s Liberals.

In sum, the Liberals will narrowly win the popular vote but lose the seat count (as they did in 1979 and 1957).

I’ll go even further to predict the post-election wrangling.

My wild-eyed guess: Facing potential loss of power, senior Conservative emissaries will privately reach out to the Liberals in the days after the vote to negotiate some form of support.

That support will be granted only with onerous conditions, including the appointment of a prime minister who is not Stephen Harper. (Remember that, when asked about post-vote scenarios, Trudeau has repeatedly said he wouldn’t prop up a Harper government. He has been less clear about support for the Walmsley Scenario of a Conservative government without Harper.)

This will lead to internal strife in the party, with Harper loyalists pitted against those newly-elected and re-elected Conservatives who would like to keep their jobs for at least a few months more.

While this civil war unfolds, Harper will delay recalling parliament. Ned Franks and Peter Russell will get way more ink. There will be pro-democracy demonstrations on the Hill. Wolf Blitzer will report live on Canada in Crisis! from outside the Langevin Block. Or maybe not.
posted by maudlin at 9:39 PM on October 18, 2015 [6 favorites]


(OTOH, my favourite pessimists at Canadian Election Watch, who try to weight by turnout factor, see an even large LPC minority than they did yesterday, but their final prediction won't be in until tomorrow.)
posted by maudlin at 9:42 PM on October 18, 2015


This will lead to internal strife in the party, with Harper loyalists pitted against those newly-elected and re-elected Conservatives who would like to keep their jobs for at least a few months more.

A silver lining in the nightmare possibility. There will have to be changes in that party, no matter what happens. Lots of Mulroney-type conservatives are done with the zealots and yesmen.
posted by cotton dress sock at 9:46 PM on October 18, 2015


(I hope it tears the CPC apart.)
posted by cotton dress sock at 9:46 PM on October 18, 2015 [3 favorites]


Mulroney-type conservatives? I know you mean traditional PCs, but in my mind I see riverboat gamblers and multi-level marketers when you say that, maybe with a few Ponzi scheme types mixed in. Mulroney was 19th century levels of corrupt. Harper isn't that corrupt, but he makes up for it by sincerely believing in his crackpot ideas.
posted by Kevin Street at 12:03 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


My nightmare scenario, which I think it more likely than some form of Conservative government, is a minority Liberal government that plays both sides, taking support on some issues from the post-Harper Cons and on others from the NDP. Not much actual legislating takes place and nothing Harper has wrought is undone. They don't take any solid action on electoral reform.

After a couple years, the shaky Liberal government falls and the new, softer post-Harper Cons win a narrow majority in the next election because no one was particularly happy with the Liberals and the Cons only need 37% to win a majority anyways.

I hope I'm wrong and we see a solid NDP-Liberal coalition that brings in electoral reform before the next election, but that sounds pretty optimistic.
posted by ssg at 12:29 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Last Week Tonight segment on the Canadian election (15 minute YouTube video)
posted by Gary at 12:40 AM on October 19, 2015 [8 favorites]


Nevin: "In terms of getting rid of FPTP, it seems like it's going to be incredibly difficult to do. British Columbia had two referendums on adopting proportional representation (an STV scheme developed by an arms-length citizen's commission of sorts).

The first referendum came very close to passing; the second referendum overwhelmingly rejected STV.
"

Well the first go around got something like 58% yes but the government set the "pass" bar at 60% so failure is relative. All the referendums out here proved is you need buy in from the government to make these things happen. I worked tech support for years and even then I don't think voters are so stupid that they can't be taught STV. If only because in the simplest case voters can vote as they always have; they aren't required to specify a second choice.

Figuring out who won is a bit complicated but that isn't on people casting votes.
posted by Mitheral at 12:48 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


vote early
vote often
posted by philip-random at 12:50 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Fantastic post. Sadly, I'm probably going to be asleep in Copenhagen by the time the polls begin to close, so I get to wake up tomorrow morning and find out who our new leaders are...

But yes, I did vote by mail. I want (and I am still allowed, so far) my vote to be counted.
posted by vernondalhart at 2:04 AM on October 19, 2015


I will now commit a crime which could land me up to 6 months in a Canadian gulag.

*clears throat*

DON'T VOTE FOR HARPER.

*Justinian leans back evilly, lighting a clove cigarette and petting a furry white cat*
posted by Justinian at 2:13 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


CBC live election coverage on youtube here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWFNl0K18A4
posted by kaymac at 3:38 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


mrjohnmuller: I'm ready for tomorrow! I have a bottle of whiskey to celebrate Harper's defeat, and six more bottles of whiskey in case I need to mourn his victory.

Well, now I know the cosmic purpose of my former tenants leaving behind a bottle of Gibson's Finest Canadian Whisky. I thought it was random, especially since they don't drink and are from Hungary, but now I know it was sent by God   Pierre Trudeau   zombie Jack Layton.
posted by Kattullus at 4:22 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


> Lots of Mulroney-type conservatives are done with the zealots and yesmen.

Enough to stay home or not vote Conservative? I'll believe it when it happens.
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:25 AM on October 19, 2015


good luck, Canada friends!
posted by the quidnunc kid at 5:03 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


My riding is messy. Bill “Don't mention carding, the G20, or Rob Ford” Blair is running for the Liberals in Scarboorugh Southwest. He'll likely take it, I'm afraid: Dan Harris, the NDP incumbent, is a super nice guy and an effective MP, but hasn't got the name recognition of the former head of Toronto's largest armed gang. The tory candidate is also polis, but is in with a shout. So we'll likely get someone TOUGH ON CRIME. Tommy Taylor of the Greens is amusing, but a no-hoper; remember, Tom “Somewhere to the right of Stephen Harper” Wappel (Liberal, inexplicably) held this riding for years.

What sums this riding up for me are the Liberal and Conservative signs put up outside the corner shop that's the most blatant seller of contraband cigarettes in the city. TOUGH ON CRIME and SUPPORTING SMALL BUSINESS must make for some good protection money political donations.
posted by scruss at 5:11 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I love the news stories suggesting the Blue Jays game tonight is going to affect voter turnout. Polls are now open across Atlantic Canada, twelve hours before the game starts. Employers are required to provide three hours to vote. Anybody who actually wants to vote, will be able to vote. Or will have already voted in the advance polls. The best it could do is suppress disinterested voters, and I suspect the number of disinterested voters who vote is actually quite low.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:29 AM on October 19, 2015


What an astonishingly in depth post, thanks. Also, good luck my Canadian friends!
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 5:53 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Excellent post, flex. Thank you so much.

My fingers are crossed that I'm still feeling this hopeful and exuberant about Canada in 12 hours.
posted by futureisunwritten at 5:55 AM on October 19, 2015


I wonder if the advance polls are high because turnout will end up being high or because having polls open all Thanksgiving weekend made it super easy to vote. If they wanted a high turnout, that's exactly the right way to schedule it. We had to wait at least half an hour in line!
posted by sadmadglad at 5:55 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


VOTED! My polling place in St. John's South–Mount Pearl is a busy spot this morning. Lots of older folks being helped out of cars. Lots of younger folks around, too. There was a bit of a line, not too long, but it's pretty early in the morning.
posted by oulipian at 5:57 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Also looks like, if you're stuck somewhere where TV/video streaming is not an option but still have a connection to the intertubes, Elections Canada will provide regularly-refreshed results here.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:06 AM on October 19, 2015


Sadly, because of time differences, I've been able to fret about this since midnight EDT, and won't know any results until I get up tomorrow, because I'm not staying up into the wee hours in order to see the results roll in.
posted by frimble at 6:11 AM on October 19, 2015


My guesses:

LPC: finishes first by about 10-15 seats (in the 135-145 range). Gets at least one seat in every province (and sweeps the territories). Next election in spring 2017.

CPC: Harper resigns tonight and the new leader is one of the old guard PC types.

NDP: 50-60 seats but Tom Mulcair isn't one of them.

Bloc: doesn't get back to official party status.

Green: elects 2 MPs in BC.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 6:12 AM on October 19, 2015


John Oliver owes Canada $5000. Money well spent.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 6:14 AM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


If we're talking Mulroney conservatives it's important to note that Elizabeth May once worked in the Mulroney government. She was also endorsed by Joe Clarke in this election.
posted by Nevin at 6:14 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Mulroney Conservatives? I'm hoping we can find a second batch of Martin Liberals.
posted by GuyZero at 6:38 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm really torn about my choices today. I mean, do I vote or do I watch the Jays?

Jokes aside, I'm taking nothing for granted yet, but I'm taking solace in the thought that in any scenario besides a CPC majority (which is unlikely), Harper won't stick around for very long. Enjoy the night everyone.
posted by beau jackson at 6:46 AM on October 19, 2015


I has voted. Polling place was busy, but I was in and out extremely quickly.

Good luck, Canada.
posted by figurant at 6:50 AM on October 19, 2015


Canadian Jews are second-class citizens under the Conservative government’s new citizenship law.

A lot of people are waking up to the new reality of C-24. Someone on /r/canada did the math the other day, today 38% of Canadians are second-class citizens. In 15 years, estimates are that more than half of Canadians won't really be Canadians (if they step out of line).

Full disclosure, I am one of the 38%.

I doubt strongly this will ever be found legal by the courts, but, if it stands, someone or several someones are going to have to go through the wringer to prove it.
posted by bonehead at 6:55 AM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]




Have made my mark.

Busy. Heavy turnout this morning.

Traditionally what'll bring people to the poll in numbers is:
1) throw the rascals out, or 2) keep the dippers out.
posted by yyz at 7:18 AM on October 19, 2015



My nightmare scenario, which I think it more likely than some form of Conservative government, is a minority Liberal government that plays both sides, taking support on some issues from the post-Harper Cons and on others from the NDP. Not much actual legislating takes place and nothing Harper has wrought is undone. They don't take any solid action on electoral reform.


Citizens are going to have to keep up the pressure on this so it doesn't go away. But really I think the libs will think of themselves first and Canada second on electoral reform, so it will be tough if NDP don't have sway.
My post election activism plan is c51 and electoral reform.
posted by chapps at 7:19 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


CPC: Harper resigns tonight and the new leader is one of the old guard PC types.

Who? Where? Flora's gone. Joe Clark ain't getting back in the game at his age. The only old guard PC types are probably Liberals (or Greens, or NDPers) these days.
posted by maudlin at 7:23 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Doug Ford.
posted by Nevin at 7:25 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Vote Rhino.

I heard a radio ad for the Rhinocerous Party, and it was extremely disappointing. Where is the party of old, with ambitious goals, a real vision for the country? The one that promised to tear down the Rocky Mountains and repeal the law of gravity? This new supposedly Rhino party gave only a flimsy promise I barely comprehended but something about making people laugh. Nonsense. Also, they don't have a candidate in my riding, and neither do the Libertarians or the Communists, so I'm going to have to vote NDP or Liberal. I don't even know which, maybe I should flip a coin.

In an effort to be positive, here are some points in favour of each. None of them involve the niqab.

Liberal:
  • They promised to end the legal prohibition of marijuana, which although it doesn't affect me directly is still a very big deal on a personal level compared to other election topics, considering how important it is to the local economy.
  • If the sum total of whatever's in the TPP deal is somehow unexpectedly not terrible, they will perhaps look good for not pre-emptively promising to discard it.
  • Their promises are said to be slightly less expensive than the NDP, and not being able to vote for anyone promising less government spending I'd rather vote for a smaller increase.
  • They have the only sane position on the Senate, which may reflect their being the best chance of restoring all the recently-disrupted parliamentary traditions in general.
  • They are the most conservative of all the parties.
NDP:
  • There was that Bill C-51 thing, important not only in itself but as an indication that maybe they could be better trusted not to pass certain types of excessively stupid laws in future.
  • If the TPP is as terrible deal as the leaked documents make it look, they can be trusted to decline to participate.
  • Well, at least they're not the Liberals.
posted by sfenders at 7:31 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


They are the most conservative of all the parties.

In which ways is the LPC more conservative than the CPC? Sincere question.
posted by beau jackson at 7:34 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


John Oliver's Canadian election show
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:36 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


My post election activism plan is ... electoral reform.

What kind though? This isn't a neutral choice at all in our current environment.

Remaining with FPP most benefits the CPC.

Switching to preference or IRV will likely mean the Liberals dominate the next few elections

Some version of proportional means a guaranteed base for the NDP and other smaller parties, at the expense of the CPC and the Liberals. It would also quite possibly mean permanent minorities and formal coalitions.
posted by bonehead at 7:36 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Final polling numbers are summarized here.

I want to hear everyone's seat projections. Most accurate prediction before the polls close in Newfoundland gets a musty used copy of Charlie Farquharson's Jogfree of Canda: The Whirld and Other Places.
posted by Kabanos at 7:37 AM on October 19, 2015




It would also quite possibly mean permanent minorities and formal coalitions.

Yes, they would have to learn to work together. Not so terrible imo
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:43 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


From Nevin's link:

"With Canadians set to decide whether they want four more years of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Conservatives were critical last week of the party’s campaign, pointing to its length, failure to showcase the Conservative front bench

lol there is no Conservative front bench. Most of them quit or are currently out of jail pending appeal.

or sell the Trans-Pacific Partnership

They seem pretty eager to not talk about the specifics of that agreement. Whatever could be the reason?

poor communication between the national and local campaigns, and use of the Ford brothers to win GTA ridings.

They haven't won them *yet*. Never underestimate the cost of getting the Ford stink on you.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:44 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Off to vote with my 5 year old daughter in tow. I was about 7 years old the first time I went with my father to a polling station. I clearly remember what he said to me: "Every time there's an election in Canada, you have a choice: You can vote for the fascists, the commies, or the Liberals."

The first election I was old enough to vote, I voted Green.
posted by 256 at 7:47 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


People in love with proportional representation ,(Dippers and Greens) forget there may be other
single issue parties formed. Right wing anti immigrant parties for one.,

First past the post means you compromise now, to appeal to the middle.
Rep by pop means you just appeal to your hard core believers.
It means the party leader chooses who becomes MP.
The individual MP is even more neutered than in FPTP.
posted by yyz at 7:50 AM on October 19, 2015


Did you ever dive too deep into deep water and realize that you were out of air right at the bottom? And then you had to fight towards the surface as your lungs felt like they would implode, a rising feeling of panic in your belly? And then experience the incredible release as you broke the surface and were finally able to gulp down deep lungfuls of precious air?

That's how I feel right now. Dump Harper and Canada gets to breathe. Keep him, and, well...
posted by crazylegs at 7:51 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Oof I hope this isn't a party wide feeling or outright untrue because I think a lot of NDP supporters are going to be mighty disappointed if that's what they plan to do in parliament.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:53 AM on October 19, 2015


In which ways is the LPC more conservative than the CPC? Sincere question.

See any of the many lists of wacky things the Conservatives have done in recent years. They keep promising smaller government, but instead they make it bigger and worse. I'm not sure what they are about conserving, but it isn't anything I'm interested in. For one clear and typical example, the conservative thing to do would have been to continue the tradition of having a useful long-form census. I'm not convinced that its loss was as important as some have suggested, but really there was no reason to get rid of it either, and doing so was capriciously interfering for no good reason, destroying an established tradition that many people did value; i.e. it was not conservative.
posted by sfenders at 7:53 AM on October 19, 2015




The first election I was old enough to vote, I voted Green.

I've been making up for my first ever vote, since that vote. I'm not going to say who it was for, but I will say that I was very, very young, and I'd just happened to read a certain book by Ayn Rand, which at that particular time, due to a very particular set of circumstances, I found very, very moving, because I felt a bit like a misunderstood genius (lolz) in an unjust world (lolz), and I'd like to say again that I was very, very young. Had I voted the month before or after, it would have been for the Greens. (Which has led me to sort of feel that 21 or 30 or so might be a good time for people to be allowed to vote.)
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:55 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


they would have to learn to work together.

If you look at the German system, it essentially means that the old big-tent parties get recreated as contracts each election (and there's little variation in who joins in with whom). I think it may have much less effect than people suppose. Does it matter if your MP is a Liberal, NDP or a Green if they're all forced to vote the same way, by covenant or contract for the full term of the government?

I think what many people may actually want is more independence of their own MPs, and more free votes in the commons, but that's a different thing entirely than voting systems.
posted by bonehead at 7:56 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


> Oof I hope this isn't a party wide feeling or outright untrue because I think a lot of NDP supporters are going to be mighty disappointed if that's what they plan to do in parliament.

A few weeks ago I emailed my current NDP MP to say that any effort made by the party to prop up a Harper minority would spell the end of my support, financial or otherwise.

> RIP Doug Henning, and the Natural Law Party:

The first time I voted in a federal election it was 1993, and I voted Natural Law for teh lulz because I was a stupid kid. Fortunately it was the 1993 election, so it didn't really matter.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:58 AM on October 19, 2015


I think what many people may actually want is more independence of their own MPs, and more free votes in the commons

Yeah. I think our system functions best with strong ministers. One's who have their own strong political base separate from the PM.
I like the idea of a weakened PMO, and the PM should be nervously watching his back when he's among friends.
posted by yyz at 8:01 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


See any of the many lists of wacky things the Conservatives have done in recent years. They keep promising smaller government, but instead they make it bigger and worse. I'm not sure what they are about conserving, but it isn't anything I'm interested in.

The Harper brand of conservatism is very similar to the NDP. Economic policy is based on populism - throw money at particular special interests. Promote resource projects.
posted by Nevin at 8:02 AM on October 19, 2015


First past the post means you compromise now, to appeal to the middle.

Looking at the way proportional systems (like Germany or Israel) work, that compromise happens AFTER the election: the pols sit down with their party platforms and negotiate a coalition agreement that nobody voted for. In coalition-building systems voters are asked to vote for a representative they trust who will then try to negotiate a platform after the election.

That seems back-asswards and somewhat anti-democratic to me, but Germany has been doing it this way for decades now.
posted by bonehead at 8:07 AM on October 19, 2015


So in your view, it's more democratic for a fractional and distorted "representative" majority to shovel ideological policies through the second they get a block?
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:10 AM on October 19, 2015


The NDP rationale for balancing the budget does have some heft to it: If you're borrowing money from rich people on the bond market to support your social programs, then rich people end up owning your social programs and slash-and-burn becomes inevitable.

It'd sure be nice to hear "raise taxes" as a way to balance the budget, though. That would be a return to actual left-wing policy. We're still under the shadow of Thatcher and Reagan so long as no-one is willing to say that.
posted by clawsoon at 8:12 AM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


No wait, joshingly friendly election workers at the curling club in a contested riding in the middle of the city. Whole process took 5 minutes. I'm torn between the pleasure of knowing not everything has been broken by Harper, and the frustration of having to add the predicate "for me".
posted by ~ at 8:18 AM on October 19, 2015


There are always the various takes on preferential voting as a way toward more democratic outcomes.
posted by clawsoon at 8:18 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


it's more democratic for a fractional and distorted "representative" majority to shovel ideological policies through the second they get a block

There have to be compromises or coalitions made at some point. They can happen before or after the election, in my view.

Personally, I prefer to vote to have the compromise explicit, before the election, which gives me a chance to vote for a platform I want to see. Otherwise, you hare voting for a negotiating position, which is much less assured of being made government policy, assuming your bunch form part of the ruling coalition and how much pull they have.

One of the problems a PR system can have is, in the case of a lot of tiny parties, a plurality party has to go around making all sorts of little side deals and concessions to form a working coalition. The public has not a lot of say in how that happens or who gets included or not. Distortions can happen if a minority party is really needed to form a coalition, leading to special-interest side deals. Small parties, like say a religious, ultra-nationalist or whatever can have a larger voice in national politics than might otherwise be obvious before the election. PR voters have to hope that that doesn't happen, but they have little guarantee before hand. They may not get what they vote for.
posted by bonehead at 8:19 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


They may not get what they specifically hoped and voted for. But they will get something that reflects negotiated common interests.

Potted history of policies achieved under Canadian minority governments
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:22 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


a useful long-form census. I'm not convinced that its loss was as important as some have suggested

It has essentially destroyed the ability to plan the provision of public services and new infrastructure in an informed way at all levels of government. It has been an unmitigated disaster for anyone who needs their decisions informed by data, even in the private sector. Have you actually needed to use census data for anything? Take a look for yourself. It's just not there. There is a hole where data from the 2011 census should be. The response rate to the voluntary survey was so bad, Statistics Canada couldn't even release any data at all for a full quarter of Canadian municipalities. So when it comes time to make decisions about allocation of resources, it's like those places don't even exist.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 8:23 AM on October 19, 2015 [24 favorites]


I'm just back from voting with Mrs C (actually it's Ms Theatre Major; she's kept her maiden name)

There was a short line-up (~ 5 to 7 min) at the info desk because they had just one staffer there, and this staffer was taking 3 to 4 minutes to process voters who didn't have a card or were new to the riding. I hope that doesn't become an impediment as the day goes on. I did express my concern about that to a poll official.

Otherwise - easy and pleasant. Go and vote, Canadians. You'll feel good. Not cosmic-orgasm-good; it's not as intense as that, but the afterglow could last 4+ years.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:30 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I'm not convinced that its loss was as important as some have suggested, but really there was no reason to get rid of it either, and doing so was capriciously interfering for no good reason, destroying an established tradition that many people did value; i.e. it was not conservative.

Wouldn't axing the mandatory census be a "conservative" move because it was meant to reduce the amount of government interference in private lives, like the gun registry? Too bad that spirit didn't extend to religious freedom.

Seems to me that terms like "conservative/liberal" and "left/right" can sometimes be so flexible that saying something like "The Liberals are more conservative that the Conservatives" can easily be true and untrue.
posted by beau jackson at 8:34 AM on October 19, 2015


(And, is getting all and only what you want when your preferred party wins in a winner-takes-all system democratic? Isn't it more democratic for our representatives to actively work towards consensus?)
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:35 AM on October 19, 2015


I'm not convinced that its loss was as important as some have suggested...

It also has an impact outside of the public sector. An interesting thing that happened was that a lot of businesses were pissed about this too - making this an all-around stupid decision.

I mean, you can't get much more uber-capitalist than "The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Canadian Federation of Independent Business, Canadian Economics Association, Martin Prosperity Institute, Toronto Region Board of Trade, Restaurants Canada and the Canadian Association of Business Economics" demanding that the long-form census be reinstated.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:36 AM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Wouldn't axing the mandatory census be a "conservative" move because it was meant to reduce the amount of government interference in private lives, like the gun registry?

That's the part I don't understand... how is the long-form census an intrusion on people's privacy, but C-51 is not?
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 8:38 AM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Personally, I prefer to vote to have the compromise explicit, before the election, which gives me a chance to vote for a platform I want to see.

That's a total red herring though. In Canada, the parties don't compromise and cooperate before the election. I wish it did happen, but it pretty clearly isn't going to.

In this election, we have the Liberal and NDP platforms the closest they have ever been, we have a very strong contingent of voters who will vote for whoever they think can defeat the Conservative in their riding, and yet we don't have any electoral cooperation.

And you only get to vote for a platform you want to see if you happen to agree with one of the two sides. If you actually want something different, well, you can vote for that, but most places it won't work. To actually be able to vote for what you believe in and have your vote count, we need electoral reform.
posted by ssg at 8:41 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Anyone have a link to a list of policy points that Liberals and NDP intersect or nearly intersect on?
First thing tomorrow I am pushing expediency to getting stuff done on the common ground points ASAP. (repeal C36, negotiate with PS unions, decrim marijuana, fund CBC, etc)
posted by Theta States at 8:41 AM on October 19, 2015


Isn't it more democratic for our representatives to actively work towards consensus?

Not clear? See the US Congress for how per-vote coalitions happen, and their long history of special interest earmarks and riders.
posted by bonehead at 8:42 AM on October 19, 2015


In Canada, the parties don't compromise and cooperate before the election.

They have policy conventions where that happens. What I mean by the compromise before the election are the party platforms.
posted by bonehead at 8:45 AM on October 19, 2015


Good Luck, Canada!
posted by benito.strauss at 8:46 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


There are always the various takes on preferential voting as a way toward more democratic outcomes.

They may not lead to perfectly democratic outcomes, one can always construct scenarios where they don't, but any kind of preferential voting would at least give us much better individual chances of being able to express something more meaningful. I am for the moment part of a large constituency whose current political feeling is succinctly expressed as "anyone but Harper". A voting system that allowed us to more precisely encode that uncomplicated sentiment as a vote would make voting less psychologically frustrating and should at least make people feel better about it, whatever salutary effect on the participation rate or the level of democraticity might also be hoped for.
posted by sfenders at 8:48 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Good Luck, Canada!

We're going to need it!
posted by mazola at 8:48 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


If you actually want something different, well, you can vote for that, but most places it won't work. To actually be able to vote for what you believe in and have your vote count, we need electoral reform.

And we, the voter, get to make that compromise during the election, rather than have a bunch of politicians do it in a back-room afterwards. Coalition agreements generally are negotiated in secret then announced. "Big tents" allow voters to choose what they can live with; proportional systems allow the politicians to choose.
posted by bonehead at 8:48 AM on October 19, 2015


I can understand why people don't vote. I am leaving work to vote in a couple hours and still have NO IDEA who I am voting for. And I also have lived in Canada for 20/33 years and still have NO IDEA how our government works. Did I mention I also work for the government?
posted by SassHat at 8:48 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


See the US Congress for how per-vote coalitions happen, and their long history of special interest earmarks and riders.

"Wait a second. I'd like to tack on a rider to that bill. $30 million of taxpayer money to support the perverted arts."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:50 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]






That's the part I don't understand... how is the long-form census an intrusion on people's privacy, but C-51 is not?

Or the government forcing you to take off your religious clothing where identity or security are not concerns.

Unfortunately, fear of terrorist and/or Muslims really does make people forget their principles.
posted by beau jackson at 8:52 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Andrew Coyne's twitter account: @acoyne
So anyway… I have resigned as editor of Editorials and Comment for the National Post, effective immediately. I will remain a columnist.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
2. Postmedia executives and I had a professional disagreement. Their view was that the publication of a column by the editorial page editor…— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
3. … dissenting from the Post’s endorsement of the Conservatives would have confused readers and embarrassed the paper.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
4. My view was that that was what I was paid to do as a columnist: give my honest opinion on issues of public interest.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
5. I don’t see public disagreement as confusing. I see it as honest. Readers, in my view, are adults & understand that adults can disagree.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
6. The confusion, if any, would have been to have left the impression that the paper’s views were mine, or that my views were the paper’s.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
7. To be clear, the owners and managers of a newspaper have a perfect right to set the paper’s editorial line as they wish.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
8. Likewise they have a perfect right to decide who and what they wish to publish in their pages.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
9. Nobody has a God-given right to be published and the country will get along very well without me telling them how to vote.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
10. My concerns were and are merely a) that there should be no suggestion that I was personally endorsing or voting for the Conservatives.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
11. And b) that I could not do my job as a columnist if I was obliged to stay silent where these conflicted with those of management.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
12. While Postmedia’s intervention was unprecedented in my experience, I could not allow the precedent to stand.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
13. So to protect my reputation and to preserve my editorial freedom as a columnist, I felt it necessary to resign the editorial position.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
14. I think that’s all I need to say on the subject. If anyone’s still interested, I will be voting for the NDP candidate in my riding.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
15. The short-form reasoning: the Conservatives don’t deserve to be re-elected, and the Liberals don’t deserve a majority.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015
Finally, my prediction: Airheads 143 Fascists 116 Commies 71 Traitors 5 Ewoks 2 Unabombers 1 (#rathagainstthemachine - oh let me dream…).— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne) October 19, 2015

posted by Fizz at 8:53 AM on October 19, 2015 [14 favorites]


LPC: finishes first by about 10-15 seats (in the 135-145 range). Gets at least one seat in every province (and sweeps the territories).

How do you figure they get the Western Arctic? The Liberals have fallen from first, to second, to third over the past decade. While they've made up a bit of ground in the last election, they still have a ways to go.
posted by ODiV at 8:54 AM on October 19, 2015


Last night I dreamed that Justin Trudeau was giving me the best foot massage ever. Thanks, Justin, but I'm still voting NDP.
posted by orange swan at 8:54 AM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Coyne: Libs: 143, CPC 116, NDP 71, BQ 5, Greens 2...

So who has Coyne got down as the Unibombers? WCC? An independant?
posted by bonehead at 8:57 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Voted at a surprisingly busy polling station. Things were pretty efficient until I got to the voting booth, where a very elderly lady who had apparently never voted before decided to take the same amount of time as 6 people. (Her just as elderly husband voted in a normal amount of time.)

I'll go to my parents' house to watch results, I guess.
posted by jeather at 8:58 AM on October 19, 2015


I don't know about all of you, but I'm personally voting Star Wars during tonight's Blue Jays game.
posted by Fizz at 9:00 AM on October 19, 2015


bonehead, check his hashtag. It's Brent Rathgeber.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 9:01 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I think that’s all I need to say on the subject. If anyone’s still interested, I will be voting for the NDP candidate in my riding.— Andrew Coyne (@acoyne)

WE'RE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS HERE PEOPLE!!!
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:06 AM on October 19, 2015 [11 favorites]


Voted on my way in this morning; turnout was steady. Going to see where to report problems - I showed my current driver's license and was still asked for a second piece of ID. Not a problem for me, but according to the Voter ID guidelines, the license is sufficient, and I don't want to see anyone else getting hung up as a result.

Anyways, some final thoughts:
-we went for a family hike in the foothills yesterday; on our way back we passed by a wonderful Muslim family having a cookout in the day use area. The food they were cooking smelled wonderful and we told them so; they invited us to stay and join them which we couldn't as we were already late to get back for our own family dinner. So one of of them wrapped up some of the meat in a pita and chased after us into the parking lot to give it to us. I remarked to my wife that this is what makes Canada great; two families who didn't know each other sharing a moment like that on a gorgeous fall afternoon near the Rocky Mountains. No fear, no mistrust, just smiles and generosity.
-as apprehensive as I am that I'm spitting into the wind by hoping for change in some Calgary ridings, it's always uplifting to vote. Great to see people coming in and smiling and such.
-The John Oliver segment was great, but mocking Labatt's Blue? When's the last time anyone saw a bottle of Labatt's Blue?
posted by nubs at 9:09 AM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


WE'RE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS HERE PEOPLE!!!

Our favourite restaurant is a place called Flying Piggies. In Mr. Coyne's honour, we may have to make a reservation there tonight.
posted by bonehead at 9:15 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


In my riding, I have the choice between both Communist and and Marxist-Leninist (this guy, I think) candidates.

The Communist platform appears to be more thoroughly thought out than the Marxist-Leninist platform, though I'll admit that I haven't read either one closely.
posted by clawsoon at 9:17 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Airheads 143 Fascists 116 Commies 71 Traitors 5 Ewoks 2 Unabombers 1

I think the Green Party could increase its seat count if they changed all their lawn signs to just say YUB NUB.
posted by Kabanos at 9:19 AM on October 19, 2015 [11 favorites]


Our favourite restaurant is a place called Flying Piggies.

Hey, that's right next to where I last lived in Canada (and thus am registered to vote)!

I never actually went there, because it always seemed so dark and empty.
posted by frimble at 9:19 AM on October 19, 2015


Andrew Coyne is voting NDP. What world did I wake up in? Am I awake?
posted by nubs at 9:20 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I am in an office surrounded by Conservatives who are looking quite worried that Justin Trudeau might trounce Harper. I mean, dislike his party for their platforms if you want, but when the criticism you're bandying about centers on his youth and that he once had long hair, you prove the low information voter theory my husband talks about.
posted by Kitteh at 9:23 AM on October 19, 2015


I showed my current driver's license and was still asked for a second piece of ID. Not a problem for me, but according to the Voter ID guidelines, the license is sufficient.

I thought the licence alone wasn't sufficient... but you're right. Here's the skinny from Elections Canada.

nubs- thanks for sharing that story. You get it.

My favourite icebreaker for meeting strangers is when they're trying to take a group photo and one has to take it. I offer to take the group shot. then I run away with their camera/phone. Conversation ensues.
posted by Artful Codger at 9:23 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


The official endorsement aside, the NP has been running a lot of columns that range from mildly to very critical of the Conservatives.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:23 AM on October 19, 2015


People criticized the Globe & Mail for endorsing a PC minority in the last Ontario election because that is not actually a choice that the voters have. I guess they forgot to tell us that that means voting NDP.
posted by beau jackson at 9:26 AM on October 19, 2015


I thought even the endorsement had a tone of "We endorse the Conservative government we wish had been".
posted by Kabanos at 9:26 AM on October 19, 2015




That's one way to convince people to vote for Trudeau, I guess.
posted by peppermind at 9:31 AM on October 19, 2015


I guess they forgot to tell us that that means voting NDP.

To be fair, this time the G&M endorsed the CPC, but only if Mr. Harper resign immediately after wining government.

Voting Liberal seems to be the clearest expression of that message.
posted by bonehead at 9:32 AM on October 19, 2015


In all seriousness on Coyne, while I disagree with him on many things, I've always enjoyed his columns and always had the impression that he was a man of integrity who put principles first, not ideology (which is why his scathing attacks on the Conservative government over the past few years have been appreciated). This action from him just seems to confirm that.
posted by nubs at 9:32 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]




I guess they forgot to tell us that that means voting NDP.

To be fair, this time the G&M endorsed the CPC, but only if Mr. Harper resign immediately after wining government.

Voting Liberal seems to be the clearest expression of that message.


I was talking about the Ontario provincial election. Anyway I should known it would be confusing if I brought that up.
posted by beau jackson at 9:34 AM on October 19, 2015


A lighter view of the election, courtesy Bruce MacKinnon and Michael De Adder.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 9:36 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Shit, the NDP is really testing the waters on this "we'll cooperate with the Conservatives" thing

Time to go, Mulcair. I'll take 1 Paul Dewar, please!
posted by Hoopo at 9:39 AM on October 19, 2015


Fiscal genius Rob Ford's claim that Harper will save Canadians zero dollars is truly an endorsement of inestimable value.
posted by orange swan at 9:43 AM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


And not just paltry 0's, either, but big 000's!
posted by bonehead at 9:45 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Every party will work with a minority government until such a time as they feel like they have a shot at potentially winning an election. That's about all there is to it.
posted by beau jackson at 9:46 AM on October 19, 2015


> That's one way to convince people to vote for Trudeau, I guess.

I haven't voted yet, and this bullshit has me rethinking my vote. I live in a safe NDP riding, so my protest would be symbolic (and there's no danger of a Con getting in), but still.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:46 AM on October 19, 2015


I just got back from casting my NDP vote, even though, barring divine intervention or a large earthquake, the Libs will win here.

Either way:

DUMP HARPER!!

Can we have our prison farm back now?
posted by crazylegs at 9:54 AM on October 19, 2015


They don't seem to do it as often as they used to, but maybe the NDP haven't completely eliminated the old tradition of having members who feel free to occasionally deviate from the party line and sometimes say really stupid things.
posted by sfenders at 9:54 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Antony Green, psephologist and the face of elections in Australia, has great posts on:
the background of this election
the battle for Atlantic Canada
the battle for Quebec
the battle for Ontario

More posts are forthcoming; he will also be covering the count.

Green is presently in Toronto to deliver a series of lectures on Australia's various implementations of preferential voting.
posted by Quilford at 10:02 AM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Bautista voting pencil flip
posted by Kabanos at 10:03 AM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


I'm in that riding where Leadnow is being accused of NDP bias for what appeared to me to be a pretty transparent process. Looking at the conflicting polls for the riding though, I'm not sure how anyone can feel confident about who is leading in this riding. The difference between the 2 in terms of the Liberal lead seems to be beyond the margin of error for both polls combined. Should that tell us something about how accurate these polls really are?
posted by Hoopo at 10:05 AM on October 19, 2015




Shit, the NDP is really testing the waters on this "we'll cooperate with the Conservatives" thing.

Both tweets together:
What @thomson_ndp said about maybe working with Tories: “Is there an opportunity to work with either of the other parties in a minority? 1/2
"I think the answer is yes. We are committed to trying to make the Parliament work," NDP candidate said on CPAC re: working w/ LPC/CPC 2/2
So take that how you will, but the bit calling it an explicit endorsement of working with the Conservatives seems to be putting a lot of weight of correct interpretation of the word, "either".
posted by frimble at 10:05 AM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I live in a riding where the NDP candidate is such a shoo-in that nobody has bothered to do any campaigning at all. Not one knock on my door, not one flyer, despite living in the middle of the constituency. We had a great MP for many years, Libby Davies, and I would have been happy to vote for her, but I'm not happy with the replacement candidate who was involved in a fiscal mishap as an MLA. I think we could have had a much better candidate. I had originally thought I'd hold my nose and vote for her anyway, but after contacting her office and asking her a question, but not receiving any hint of an answer to my inquiry ( but TEN emails in a 24 hour period asking for donations) as I head to the polls, I'm still undecided as to whether I'll vote for her, vote for the Communist Party, or just spoil my ballot.
posted by alltomorrowsparties at 10:06 AM on October 19, 2015


I haven't voted yet, and this bullshit has me rethinking my vote.

Don't think to hard. As far as I can tell this is all coming from one person, who also happens to be the author of this embarrassing Justin Trudeau hagiography.[pdf]
posted by [expletive deleted] at 10:07 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


crazylegs, I didn't realize you were in my town! Yeah, the general consensus is that Beals would be nice, but Gerretsen is well known in the Kingston area so he's probably a shoo-in.
posted by Kitteh at 10:09 AM on October 19, 2015


I'm not happy with the replacement candidate

Yeah, she was also one of the Baker's Dozen that staged the putsch that led to Dix (and Brian Topp). And we all know what happened after that...
posted by Nevin at 10:13 AM on October 19, 2015


I'm not happy with the replacement candidate

but you would prefer a Harper Con? Priorities, people. Vote for whoever the f*** has the best chance to beat them, then spend then next few years doing the real work of democracy, which is getting-being-staying involved.
posted by philip-random at 10:17 AM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


All I want for Christmas is to see Sad Harper step down in shame, is that too much to ask? I've been good this year, was nice to my little sister and everything.
posted by Hoopo at 10:21 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Canadian Election Watch's final projected winners by riding and final prediction:

LIB - 142 (37.3%)
CON - 119 (32.4%)
NDP - 66 (20.1%)
BQ - 10 (4.9%)
GRN - 1 (4.3%)

These are the guys with the most pessimistic forecast so far because of factoring in CPC turnout. Let's see how this works out.
posted by maudlin at 10:27 AM on October 19, 2015


I'm voting Beals, Kitteh. Gerretsen is going to win anyway and I can't bring myself to vote Liberal after C-51 (plus Beals impressed me by marching in solidarity with the Trans* group at Pride.)
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 10:31 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Voted this morning; a fairly quiet poll (at 8:30 AM), and had no troubles, although I did bring along a dossier of information (recently moved; don't have my new real driver's license yet; wound up with my passport and property insurance being the combination needed).

I'm optimistic about the chance for a Liberal government; here in my second-tier swing riding of Calgary Centre I received one mailing and four door visits from Liberal Kent Hehr and zero from anyone else; while he's not perhaps my favorite (too hard-on-crime for me, although I can understand why), I can't figure out why people throw tantrums over whether they get peach pie or strawberry pie, when the alternative is another shit sandwich.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 10:37 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


but you would prefer a Harper Con?

That's been the problem of the whole campaign for me - that somehow party affiliation is supposed to indicate how ethical or whatever a candidate is compared to the Cons. I think it's perfectly acceptable to say Davies' successor is no Libby Davies.

But on the other hand we're getting into the nitty gritty of politics here. Carole James, whom Davies' successor helped overthrow, is my neighbour and my MLA, and she was overthrown by what Islanders might consider a Vancouver clique (Vancouver vs the regions is a timeless dynamic in BC). Now with Horgan in, it's time for us Islanders to win back government :)
posted by Nevin at 10:37 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Like I said, our NDP candidate is a shoo-in. My not voting for her is not equivalent to voting for Harper, ffs.
posted by alltomorrowsparties at 10:44 AM on October 19, 2015


The student reps swung by my lecture this morning and all my students raised their hands when asked if they had voted or were planning to vote today. Candy for everyone!!

I did hear one student say how guilty he'd feel if he didn't vote after getting the candy. If that's all it takes, kid....
posted by invokeuse at 10:46 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


My not voting for her is not equivalent to voting for Harper, ffs.

apologies
posted by philip-random at 10:49 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Seriously, the only indefensible vote in this election is the Conservative vote.
posted by orange swan at 10:55 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I am dreading what news will be waiting for me when I get up tomorrow morning. I have lost a lot of faith in Canada's democratic system over the Harper years. It's tough to stay optimistic and hopeful through such an oppressive grind.
posted by LegallyBread at 10:57 AM on October 19, 2015


I'm voting Beals, Kitteh. Gerretsen is going to win anyway and I can't bring myself to vote Liberal after C-51 (plus Beals impressed me by marching in solidarity with the Trans* group at Pride.)

My husband spent his floating vacation time two weeks ago volunteering at Beals' headquarters, so it's safe to assume we're NDP supporters.
posted by Kitteh at 11:00 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I have lost a lot of faith in Canada's democratic system over the Harper years.

Seriously I was just thinking today about where I was when Harper first became PM and it was Japan and that was like 10 fuckin years ago, what the hell Canada?
posted by Hoopo at 11:01 AM on October 19, 2015


Hey Hoopo - I was in undergrad and just rising. I'm now a crusty old professional. I feel you.
posted by LegallyBread at 11:03 AM on October 19, 2015


RIP Doug Henning

Haiger4Lyfe! Carpe... well I guess you're not carping any more diems, Doug.

The Harper brand of conservatism is very similar to the NDP.

It's really not, and it would be super awesome if you'd stop repeating this blatant untruth.

Economic policy is based on populism - throw money at particular special interests. Promote resource projects.

Congratulations, you have just described every politician in Canada since Confederation.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:05 AM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I'm still undecided as to whether I'll vote for her, vote for the Communist Party, or just spoil my ballot.

Like I said, our NDP candidate is a shoo-in. My not voting for her is not equivalent to voting for Harper, ffs.


In a way, it is a vote for Harper.

I can't see this as a useful attitude. It's just another flavour of "why bother, my vote doesn't count anyway". Do you dislike the candidate enough to also punish the NDP who you apparently favour?

Unless they're some sort of anarchist, I think everyone should make the effort to vote. In this federal election, under the current system, I see two compelling and not necessarily conflicting reasons for voting:

- to push your vision for Canada, by supporting the person and/or party that best expresses them
- to effect change. This would include voting strategically, if you decide it's more important to defeat one party than to support a specific alternative.

Not voting, or wasting your vote... how is that helpful?
posted by Artful Codger at 11:07 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm still amused that the turning point in Trudeau's rise was a "performance of traditional masculinity" in the form of his boxing match with Brazeau.
posted by clawsoon at 11:08 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Having actually worked in an election (Ontario's most recent), party reps care not one whit about spoiled ballots. They don't send any kind of message to anyone at all.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:09 AM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Seriously, the only indefensible vote in this election is the Conservative vote.

What about my riding where the NDP and Conservatives are neck and neck with the Liberals and Greens way behind but, at last count, still accounting for almost 25-percent of the left/progressive vote between them? Can I at least call a vote for either perhaps not indefensible but just old-fashioned dumb?
posted by philip-random at 11:12 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


It's just another flavour of "why bother, my vote doesn't count anyway".

A vote for the Communists? Maybe. Or it could be a way to send a little message to whoever sees one more vote for the Commies in the results that although none of the parties with a chance to win are any good, we would like them to change in this more Communist-oriented direction in the future, please, because [whatever communism is about] is important. Sort of like my probable vote for the green party will be intended.
posted by sfenders at 11:14 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Battle for the Atlantic... sheesh. This region is going more red than at any time in fifty years, other than 1993. As for it being a pointer for the rest of the country, I still remember the 1988 election returning 20 of 32 Liberals, and the morning G&M (which had to go to press before later results came in) talking about a red surge possibly toppling Mulroney. Oh, the sad laughs that day. BC residents often complain that the election is decided before it even gets to them... well, in Atlantic Canada it's decided in spite of us.

And while my riding has been PC and NDP in the past, I haven't seen either candidate in the area. I swear the Cons didn't even have signs up until three weeks ago. Meanwhile the Liberal candidate (MP Geoff Regan), who should reasonably expect to win, hasn't taken any chances. When my wife asked the Liberal canvasser if they could put a Liberal sign on our lawn, Regan hammered it in personally. It's like he's the only one who wants to win here.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 11:15 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


philip-random, we are in very similar ridings. I've convinced a few Green supporters to hold their noses and vote NDP to hopefully not have a Conservative vote in parliament, but far more are voting their conscience.
posted by sauril at 11:24 AM on October 19, 2015


Thanks for the great post, flex!
Just home from voting here in Victoria. Good turnout but it didn't take too long to get through the line. Most encouraging to see a good number of younger people out voting.
This will be an interesting race. Victoria is one of the few ridings where the Greens have a realistic chance to pick up a seat from the NDP, having come close last election. The Liberal candidate was forced to drop out after some of her more intemperate social media comments came to light. Unfortunately her name is still, confusingly, on the ballot. As for the Conservative, he's been largely invisible and frequently "unavailable for comment" throughout.
Looking forward to hearing the phrase "former Prime Minister Stephen Harper" soon.
posted by islander at 11:27 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Okay, so I voted during my lunch break; no lineup at all, I was in and out of there in less than five minutes. Voted NDP after all because my MP's a good guy, but definitely without much enthusiasm (I voted against Mulcair when he ran for leader of the party), not that that will register on my ballot.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:28 AM on October 19, 2015


Seeing some rumblings on Twitter that Mulcair's seat is in trouble? Anyone else heard anything?
posted by nubs at 11:30 AM on October 19, 2015


At what time do polls close? When can we expect to hear concrete results?
posted by tzikeh at 11:34 AM on October 19, 2015


but far more are voting their conscience.

quoting a friend. "I voted my conscience last time and the Conservatives won. Now that's on my conscience."
posted by philip-random at 11:35 AM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


People voting their conscience is how we have been able to maintain multiple choices in Canada, how we've been able to signal, "No, I want to go even further left," or "even further right". The Reform party was able to turn the hopeless Western right-wing protest vote into a decade of Harper. Hopeless votes for the NDP in the '60s produced Pearson's '65-'68 minority governments with the NDP holding the balance of power, which gave us:
  • Medicare
  • CPP
  • Canada student loans
  • Minimum wage
  • Two-week vacation
  • 40-hour work week
  • Royal Commissions on the Status of Women and on Biligualism
  • The first race-free immigration policy in the world
...and all with balanced budgets.

Don't short-change voting your conscience.
posted by clawsoon at 11:36 AM on October 19, 2015 [24 favorites]


clawsoon, Brazeau even endorsed Trudeau today: "@JustinTrudeau beat the shit out of me but I'm still voting for him. If I can, every other Canadian should!" (Of course, Brazeau has no love for the Tories and this is more of a dig at Harper than anything else, but it's still amusing.)

Scattered reports of election day screw-ups:

1) Mobile polling stations may close early. Read your voters card! (It's already too late in Ontario and points east, but this is a heads up to those out west.)

2) Poll workers have showed up late or not at all at some polls. Some voters left and probably can't come back.

3) Application of voter ID rules are a mess. Some people with acceptable photo ID still get asked for a second piece of ID. People with two pieces of correct ID get told they still need photo ID. People have been turned away because a piece of ID didn't include their middle initial.

I got the list of acceptable ID options from an EC flyer mailed with my voter card: you may have this list, too. (If you don't have it, you can print out the list from the EC web site.) BRING THE LIST OF VOTER ID OPTIONS TO YOUR POLLING STATION. If there's a line-up, chat with people around you about ID options. Be prepared to politely make your case if a worker says your ID isn't acceptable.
posted by maudlin at 11:36 AM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


At what time do polls close?

9PM local. I believe the embargo on results lasts until 10 or 11PM EDT.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:37 AM on October 19, 2015


but far more are voting their conscience.

quoting a friend. "I voted my conscience last time and the Conservatives won. Now that's on my conscience."


I agree 100%
posted by sauril at 11:37 AM on October 19, 2015


Polls close in Newfoundland at 8:30 local time, expect the results of those polls by 7:30-8:00ish ET
posted by peppermind at 11:37 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Polls in BC are closed at 7 PM. Don't wait too long.
posted by sauril at 11:38 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Meanwhile, in Alberta, where there's been some criticism of the NDP premier doing some campaigning alongside Muclair, the Interim Leader of the remains of the PCs has endorsed the Cons, leading to this:

The #PCAA Interim Leader's endorsement of the #CPC did not have PC caucus consent nor was it agreed to by party membership. #elxn42 (Sandra is one of the few remaining PC MLAs).
posted by nubs at 11:39 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Oh, my bad, I'm sorry.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:39 AM on October 19, 2015


elections.ca has been up and down for people all day apparently.

If you're looking for your voting location, vote.ca has the info (and voting hours: 9:30 PM in my case). It's run as a public service by a Toronto lawyer.
posted by bonehead at 11:41 AM on October 19, 2015


Repeating myself: some polling stations may close earlier than the general closing time. Assume nothing, check your voter's card, or phone your local EC office. Find your riding here, click through to find your riding office.
posted by maudlin at 11:41 AM on October 19, 2015


I believe the embargo on results lasts until 10 or 11PM EDT.

...I don't think there is an embargo this time around
posted by Artful Codger at 11:42 AM on October 19, 2015


I believe the embargo on results lasts until 10 or 11PM EDT.

There is no longer any embargo; nation-wide reporting on results will commence when the polls start closing in Atlantic Canada.

Poll hours (all times local)

Newfoundland: 8:30am-8:30pm
Atlantic Canada: 8:30am-8:30pm
Eastern: 9:30am-9:30pm
Central: 8:30am-8:30pm
Mountain: 7:30am-7:30pm
Pacific: 7:00am-7:00pm

(note that with time zone changes and the staggered hours, this means that the Eastern/Central/Mountain polls all close at the same time).

And yes, some polls appear to be closing earlier or only open for a few hours today. Double check your info, make sure you get out there!
posted by nubs at 11:43 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


> I'm still amused that the turning point in Trudeau's rise was a "performance of traditional masculinity" in the form of his boxing match with Brazeau.

I'm still surprised that he won! I thought he'd get his butt kicked, become a figure of ridicule and that would be the end of him. I guess that's that Brazeau and the Cons thought, too. I'm also still surprised that he took the risk, but high risk high reward I guess.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:47 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Just got back. Three people in line in front of me (one of whom was my spouse) so it only took a couple minutes.
posted by Mitheral at 11:47 AM on October 19, 2015


Have voted and am crossing everything!
posted by orange swan at 11:47 AM on October 19, 2015


9PM local. I believe the embargo on results lasts until 10 or 11PM EDT.

It's 9:30 in our time zone, actually. The voting hours are Very Weird this election.

If you happen to be in a riding that spans multiple time zones, double check your hours!
posted by jeather at 11:49 AM on October 19, 2015


I hadn't been keeping up with Brazeau. His column from a couple of days ago:
I spoke one last time with Harper on the Quebec Nation proposal after that and he said it wasn't going anywhere. He told me he had already recognized Quebec as a nation. I asked him what that meant? No response. So I replied, "just like you apologized to Aboriginal Canadians?"

...but I can say this, I’m a lot more afraid to stand beside Harper who’s face is uncovered than a woman who is covered with a niqab.

...As for Trudeau, he has run a fairly straight campaign. Unlike Harper, no dirty politics and it seems to have worked for him.

posted by clawsoon at 11:49 AM on October 19, 2015


Seeing some rumblings on Twitter that Mulcair's seat is in trouble? Anyone else heard anything?

Yes
posted by Nevin at 11:50 AM on October 19, 2015


One more from the Brazeau column: "I for one underestimated Justin Trudeau and thought he was weak and not ready. I was wrong and it only took me 4 minutes to figure that out. If the polls hold up, Harper and I will have one thing in common for life: We will have had both our butts kicked by Justin Trudeau."
posted by clawsoon at 11:50 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I unhappily voted per the strategic recommendations. I'd rather have voted for the lawyer instead of the grocery store clerk. But ABC is the rule for today.

We need electoral reform. I shouldn't have to vote strategically.

If the NDP support the Cons, I will never, ever vote for them in any election ever. Unforgivable.
posted by five fresh fish at 11:51 AM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


People voting their conscience is how we have been able to maintain multiple choices in Canada, how we've been able to signal, "No, I want to go even further left," or "even further right".

Is there any evidence this sort of signalling gets heard?
posted by cotton dress sock at 11:51 AM on October 19, 2015


A new trick for voter suppression?

HuffPo: Winnipeg Polling Stations Face Staff Shortage After Workers Cancel At Last Minute
posted by Artful Codger at 11:52 AM on October 19, 2015


> If the NDP support the Cons, I will never, ever vote for them in any election ever.

Sounds like they're walking that back.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:54 AM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Is there any evidence this sort of signalling gets heard?

Yes. The Liberals gobbled up the Reform Party slash-and-burn policies in the '90s, just like they gobbled up the NDP ideas in the '60s.
posted by clawsoon at 11:55 AM on October 19, 2015


I also just voted, was in and out in four minutes. My riding is actually one of the "vote your preference" ones. I feel nauseous. I think I'm actually traumatized by a lifetime of voting strategically. I hope I made the right bet.

Tomorrow morning, I'm sending a letter (hard copy, fancy paper) to whoever turns out to be my MP to please for the love of all things prioritize electoral reform.
posted by cotton dress sock at 11:56 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Is there any evidence this sort of signalling gets heard?

The CCF never won a federal election, but we still ended up with universal health care.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:57 AM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Is there any evidence this sort of signalling gets heard?

None whatsoever. Parties only care about losing votes to other parties that have similar platforms. Nobody cares about the few thousand votes scattered across the country that go to Marxists or whoever. It's statistical noise. A huge upset victory by the NDP could propel the Libs further left (as we've seen in the past few years with them moving right to eat the Cons lunch, e.g. with the reprehensible vote for C51. That is indefensible, Trudeau, and it is why the Liberals will never get another vote from me until you are no longer leading the party. Voting for something blatantly unconstitutional to play politics with it is bullshit and un-Canadian.)

Elections Canada is really screwing the pooch on this one, which adds yet another level of fear to Harper possibly winning. If he wins, betcha he'll try to gut EC even more than he already has.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:58 AM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


The voting hours are Very Weird this election.

They are trying to stagger them so that the polls all close in rough proximity to each other, taking advantage of time zone changes. So polls in the Eastern/Central/Mountain time zones will all close simultaneously, I think an hour later than Atlantic Canada and an hour before the Pacific. I always get confused by Newfoundland, so I'm not sure where they fall.
posted by nubs at 11:59 AM on October 19, 2015


I currently cannot find an online link because I was reading it in the actual newspaper, but there is an extensive article about this election and how the Tories seriously underestimated how much Justin is his dad's son in terms of grit and determination this election campaign. Oh, and that the Grauniad has been writing up a storm about what a horrible person Harper is.
posted by Kitteh at 11:59 AM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I got in to my polling station around 10am and there was no lineup. I was in and out in 5 minutes, which was good because there was a no parking sign where I parked. I was really hoping that the polling station would be at my daughter's school because we walk there together in the morning anyway, but I think they may use that for provincial elections only. Ended up voting strategically because I didn't last time and the Conservative won by less than a thousand votes. The polls were predicting a Liberal victory then and are predicting one now but there may be a shy Tory effect in my riding and I didn't want to risk it today.

What I really don't get is how come the Conservatives own all the messaging with respect to fiscal responsibility. The Liberals had a decade of surpluses before Harper gave us pretty much a decade of deficits. At this point people should trust anyone except the Conservatives on this area but somehow the Conservatives are responsible with the public purse. And this doesn't just go for Canada, it is the same with Republicans in the USA and Tories in the UK. Is it because they are in cahoots with the financial press or is there something else in play here?
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


So polls in the Eastern/Central/Mountain time zones will all close simultaneously, I think an hour later than Atlantic Canada and an hour before the Pacific

Two hours later than Atlantic Canada, but half an hour before Pacific.
posted by jeather at 12:04 PM on October 19, 2015


I don't get that either; the Conservative branding around the world seems to have been remarkably effective in that regard. I know people who wouldn't vote for the Conservatives in a hundred years but still somehow think they're the responsible ones when it comes to the public purse, all evidence to the contrary aside.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:06 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


I've never understood it either. The Republicans almost own it too, not to mention the Fords.
posted by sauril at 12:07 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I was amazed at how effective not having to pay a $60 vehicle registration tax was at persuading a couple of hard-working and frustrated people I know to vote for Ford. A little pocket change is all it takes, for some.
posted by cotton dress sock at 12:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


What I really don't get is how come the Conservatives own all the messaging with respect to fiscal responsibility.

I think it's the success of the Overton Window thing. In the good old days, Liberals and PCs were fairly centrist, with policy differences but both regarded as more or less fiscally competent. (I do miss Paul Martin as finance minister)

Then, like in the US and the UK, the de-progressive'd Conservatives took a giant step to the right, leaving the Liberals to their left... at which point they can be portrayed as lefty therefore fiscally imprudent. The Liberal Adscam also hit about the time the Cons came to power, and it still taints the Liberals. And of course Trudeau alone has promised deficit budgeting.
posted by Artful Codger at 12:16 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I was amazed at how effective not having to pay a $60 vehicle registration tax was at persuading a couple of hard-working and frustrated people I know to vote for Ford.

I can understand it a bit - I remember my brief rage-y reaction the first time I saw photocopying fees on a lawyer's bill. It was less than 1% of the whole bill, but it induced a "why you dissin' me?" reaction that I still can't explain. For some reason, "you're nickle-and-diming me" == "you don't respect me" == "RAGE".

I thought about my response rationally and made it go away, but it gave me some understand of similar decisions that people make.
posted by clawsoon at 12:16 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Jeet Heer brings a thought.
posted by nubs at 12:20 PM on October 19, 2015


What I really don't get is how come the Conservatives own all the messaging with respect to fiscal responsibility.

It's because conservatives do lower taxes. People think that if you're lowering taxes, it must be because you're running the government efficiently and frugally.
posted by clawsoon at 12:20 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I really wish people who mock Rob Ford are aware of the message they are sending to Ford's demographic. Mocking him is tantamount to mocking a lot of people who don't fit in and feel left behind by a society that is increasingly becoming polarized economically and politically. In short, mocking Rob Ford is elitist.

Now, I know that Ford is likely a criminal, and he's also quite wealthy. But the Fords are able to exploit the elitist mockery to their own advantage. It's actually pretty scary. They are not unsophisticated at all. The best thing to do is to ignore them.
posted by Nevin at 12:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


I was absolutely laughing my ass off this weekend when I saw a Harper ad where he claimed, "My opponents only want to talk about me and not the issues."

I mean how many fucking times in the last six months have I heard 'JUST NOT READY' and 'NICE HAIR THOUGH' and suddenly we shouldn't be talking about the candidates?

Like I needed more proof that Harper was a hypocritical bastard.
posted by WinnipegDragon at 12:34 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


In short, mocking Rob Ford is elitist.

Rob Ford is the elite.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:35 PM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


Rob Ford is best understood as a (the?) living embodiment of rich white male privilege.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [14 favorites]


All of which is to say: What if the mockery points out the elite status of the Fords?

But would also prefer to ignore those shithawks. It's just so...damn...hard.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:38 PM on October 19, 2015


Mocking him is tantamount to mocking a lot of people who don't fit in and feel left behind by a society that is increasingly becoming polarized economically and politically. In short, mocking Rob Ford is elitist.

I think you've fallen for the conservative ju jitsu used in the Ford (and alot of conservative) campaigning. They are self-described regular guys, the anti-elite candidates, therefore any criticism is elitist.

Yes, Ford appealed to the little guy and the 'respect for taxpayers' camp. But, JHC... was it completely impossible to find another everyman reactionary fiscal conservative mayoral candidate who wasn't such a horrible human being? In a city of 4 million? really?

I know for fact that the conservative establishment sent their A-team to help with the first Ford mayoral campaign. Thing is, the Canadian conservatives are willing to back ANY conservative who is mathematically electable, with little regard for the person's ethics or capability. This is a big reason why I detest them.
posted by Artful Codger at 12:41 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Rob Ford is the elite.

He's a second generation politician, part of the 1%, and a member of one of the bigger drug families in TO (allegedly). He's several elites.
posted by bonehead at 12:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


If you want to get even more depressed, follow #pollwatch today.
posted by jeather at 12:46 PM on October 19, 2015


If you want to get even more depressed, follow #pollwatch today.

So, like the container at the back of the fridge that I know I should just throw out rather than sniffing...

"This was my polling location. Totally unacceptable."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:53 PM on October 19, 2015


I really hope this isn't true
posted by figurant at 12:53 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


>In short, mocking Rob Ford is elitist.

Rob Ford is the elite.


Of course he is. But not everyone sees Ford that way. They see a fat guy who is not polished at all, a retail politician who will return their calls, who doesn't reside in one of the glass towers downtown.
posted by Nevin at 12:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


What I really don't get is how come the Conservatives own all the messaging with respect to fiscal responsibility.

Harper makes it look easy. He just repeats the same words at every opportunity: We are fiscally conservative. We have an Economic Action Plan. We are not making expensive promises like the other parties. We will keep taxes low.

He says it often, and it gets quoted and broadcast everywhere, so that "low-information" voters who don't pay attention to nonsense about the niqab might hear nothing else from the conservatives. The message gets out, and the other parties can't counter it because they really do want to make some rather expensive promises to win over the people. When I checked out youtube's coverage of the election, this was on the front page.

If there was a party that offered the same thing, only without the authoritarian bullshit, without the pandering to racists, without the badly-designed tax cuts, without the sometimes immensely misguided choices of which budgets to cut, without the climate change denialism that denies it's denying anything, without the incompetent mismanagement of what should be routine government business, without the contempt of parliament, without the getting Canada into a war in Iraq of all things... they'd win in a landslide.
posted by sfenders at 12:57 PM on October 19, 2015


Voted. It was pretty easy, but there was a woman in front of me who was having problems because she didn't have ID. I think they smoothed it out and she got to vote, but I wasn't paying close enough attention to be sure.
posted by Kevin Street at 1:09 PM on October 19, 2015


(Damn, that "More inside" certainly undersells this post. Thank you, flex: I am an American but very interested in my National Hat's self-determination. Good luck, friends to the north!)
posted by wenestvedt at 1:13 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I know it is too late for this election but for those without driver's licences, Ontario has a photo ID card that you can apply for from Service Ontario (it looks like a pink driver's licence).
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 1:14 PM on October 19, 2015


We're more concerned about what's going on in our pants.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 1:15 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Always tough to tell with Twitter, but I seem to be seeing some trends in #pollwatch:

-lots of issues with ID confusion;
-mobile polling stations not arriving when scheduled;
-polling stations unable to open/turning voters away because of staff not showing up;
-some voters have discovered that their name has already been stricken from the roll;
-reports of ballots coming pre-marked for the Conservative candidate in some areas.

Shenanigans, incompetence, or a lethal mix of both?
posted by nubs at 1:15 PM on October 19, 2015


The Canada "Fair" Elections Act, doing what it was designed to do. I really hope this is a case of internet amplification, but I'm getting the proverbial bad feeling about it.
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:17 PM on October 19, 2015


I've also read about one person overseas who did not received their voters package after requesting it. I don't know if that's just an isolated incident at the moment, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Before the last election I would have said that this is all incompetence. Now I know better than to take that for granted.
posted by beau jackson at 1:18 PM on October 19, 2015


Shenanigans, incompetence, or a lethal mix of both?

Cuts to the Elections Canada budget + new processes + temporary staff + unprecedented turnout in advanced polls. So, both, I guess.
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:20 PM on October 19, 2015


The Canada "Fair" Elections Act, doing what it was designed to do.

Given that it's partly the handiwork of this reprehensible little shitbird, colour me unsurprised.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:20 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm getting the proverbial bad feeling about it.

Me too. I sense a lawsuit and another (bad-vibes) election in the near future. (I'm still a little queasy, though.)
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:21 PM on October 19, 2015


This is what the Conservatives do; de-fund government institutions to a point where they no longer operate properly, and reap the benefits.
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:22 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


My riding is actually one of the "vote your preference" ones. I feel nauseous. I think I'm actually traumatized by a lifetime of voting strategically. I hope I made the right bet.

Same here. Except for the nausea, I'm just a bit angsty. Either voting "strategically" with extreme pessimism, or voting symbolically when it's a foregone conclusion who will win, was all I ever knew of federal elections until today when I decided at the last minute that I do actually have a preference for one party over the other in the local race between NDP and Liberal, which could conceivably be a close one, maybe. I voted for someone who might actually win! Such a novelty.
posted by sfenders at 1:26 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


The Conservatives: Running on a platform of "the government doesn't work", and then setting out to prove it

(with apologies to P.J. O'Rourke)
posted by nubs at 1:27 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


In short, mocking Rob Ford is elitist

Right wingers can label people "elitist" all they like for pointing out that their fake-everyman is a train wreck, it doesn't make it so.
posted by Hoopo at 1:35 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


@sfenders, that's exactly how it's been for me. (It's Sartrean nausea, I think. Or maybe the iffy cream I put in my coffee this morning.) I want so much to be able to vote like it matters, all the time.
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:39 PM on October 19, 2015


I wonder how we would all vote if there were no polls.
posted by beau jackson at 1:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Right wingers can label people "elitist" all they like for pointing out that their fake-everyman is a train wreck, it doesn't make it so.

Yeah, but these people vote. Call me naive, but I'm arguing that you have to be inclusive and appeal to peoples' "better angels" rather than pushing them into the enemy camp. And the Ford camp is borderline fascist.

At one time Ford Nation would have voted NDP. It's a very similar demographic.
posted by Nevin at 1:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Just voted - walked over, was in and out in about 20 minutes, mostly because my poll had 8 people waiting in line while the one next to it had nobody.

For anecdote's sake - a man in his 20's came in right after me and managed to vote with just his driver's license. It was good to see.
posted by sauril at 1:50 PM on October 19, 2015


Is that unusual? That's what I usually bring.
posted by ODiV at 1:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Lots of reports today of people being asked for more ID than that; including me. In retrospect I'm wishing I'd made a bit more of it at the polling station rather than complying, voting, and then complaining to EC after the fact.
posted by nubs at 1:59 PM on October 19, 2015


Well it is if you look upthread at all the issues people have had voting with one piece of ID.
posted by sauril at 1:59 PM on October 19, 2015


The Elections Canada website is pretty clear that a driver's license alone is sufficient.
posted by Clandestine Outlawry at 2:00 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


EC temp workers seem especially confused this year. While most people can show photo ID and be in and out, some are asked for a second piece, other people with no photo ID (but acceptable other forms) are turned away, etc.

My poll was very quick and easy with no problems, and most people should be OK, but there are some definite snags this year.
posted by maudlin at 2:00 PM on October 19, 2015


Wow, threehundredandeight's projections for my riding are a dead heat between the Conservatives and NDP. 35.0 vs 34.6. Glad I voted!
posted by Kevin Street at 2:00 PM on October 19, 2015


At one time Ford Nation would have voted NDP.

Never. The citizens of Ford nation are mostly: 'old-stock' Canadians, 'self-made' small business people, anti-downtown suburbanites.

I must also admit that Rob Ford was and is a very effective city councillor, with a deserved reputation for returning calls and sorting out problems, so he has some cred with all the people he's helped as councillor.

The majority of Rob Ford's supporters followers would never be pro-union, pro-social-responsibility NDP supporters.
posted by Artful Codger at 2:00 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


No one else at the polls when I went which makes me nervous. I'm hoping there was just a large advanced vote in my riding of Courtenay-Alberni. Walked away from four friends who said there was no point in voting cause they are all the same in frustration.

Hoping we go back to NDP. Our last MP openly mocked my town for being NDP sheep in the debates and then left to be an independent over comments that he didn't believe in evolution. Now that they've restructured the riding to not include the rich retirement area I'm hoping that I might have a shot at a MP that at least acknowledges my poverty town in his riding exists.
posted by kanata at 2:01 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Never. The citizens of Ford nation are: 'old-stock' Canadians, 'self-made' small business people, and anti-downtown subarbanites.

That is partially correct. He also has a lot of support from New Canadians and people of colour who feel ignored and under-served by other politicians. I'm not sure how much of an NDP voting block they would be in a Ford vacuum (and assuming that the NDP paid attention to them) as they have traditionally been more Liberal voters than anything else, at least on the federal and provincial level. (But this is changing.)
posted by maudlin at 2:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Voted!
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 2:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


BTW, the CBC live election coverage stream has started.
posted by maudlin at 2:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


[Ford] also has a lot of support from New Canadians and people of colour who feel ignored and under-served by other politicians.

Agreed... I couldn't come up with a good way to say that accurately enough, as you have. (Thanks). So the best I could do was edit my post to say 'mostly'. Still, I don't know if this group would come out for the NDP, either.
posted by Artful Codger at 2:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


At one time Ford Nation would have voted NDP.

Never.


Don't bother. Nevin's been banging this drum that somehow the NDP and Cons are basically the same for about 77 days now. (Yeah, I know, I bothered too.)
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 2:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Oh! The CBC Canada Votes page is spiffy! (Matt Galloway says that live chat will include Blue Jays updates, too.)
posted by maudlin at 2:18 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Call me naive, but I'm arguing that you have to be inclusive and appeal to peoples' "better angels" rather than pushing them into the enemy camp

I can't even remember a time where a conservative campaign in this country wasn't immediately pointing fingers and attempting to be divisive as possible at the outset. It is not people mocking Ford that make these people dig in their heels.
posted by Hoopo at 2:20 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I would have been in & out of my polling station in 5 minutes if I hadn't stopped to chit-chat about baseball with the poll workers. The wall by the sorting desk was papered with giant reproductions of the ID requirements posted on the EC website, so nobody was foggy on those. The young 'un ahead of me - a first-time voter! yay! - used just her drivers license; I don't have one, so I used my passport and my property tax bill. Tell you what, having your tax bill in hand when you go to vote really focuses you on your democratic responsibility.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 2:22 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Pretty much ever Canadian (celeb and non-) I follow on any form of social media has been urging their followers to vote nonstop for weeks.

Good luck, guys. I hope you kick Harper to the curb.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:26 PM on October 19, 2015


Nevin's been banging this drum that somehow the NDP and Cons are basically the same for about 77 days now. (Yeah, I know, I bothered too.)

I think it's more of an argument that left-wing parties have lost what were traditionally their strongest constituencies - sometimes anti-immigrant, sometimes socially conservative, always proudly nationalistic, working-class voters. Reagan Democrats, in other words.
posted by clawsoon at 2:36 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm enjoying all the tweets showing all the combinations of IDs that people have been using to vote (e.g. Hydro bill + Perscription label)
posted by Kabanos at 2:38 PM on October 19, 2015


I was voting for the first time in a new province. I had, foolishly, not preregistered or updated the federal government with my new location in any way. I had, however, filed some quebec tax documents and gotten a response to my new address. I took in the tax letter, was asked for a second piece of ID, and showed my health card. It seemed reasonable to me because my tax letter (obviously) didn't have a photo and my health card doesn't have my address.

Anyhow, the whole thing took about ten minutes, although one of the officials seemed quite concerned that I had filled out the French side of the voter reg form despite obviously speaking poor French (I hadn't realized there was English on the other side). He wanted to be absolutely sure I understood what I had signed.
posted by 256 at 2:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


maudlin, thanks for sharing that CBC link.

I've already loaded that into a background tab. Tonight will be an overload of meda: Star Wars trailer, Game 3 of Blue Jays, Election results. Going to keep the coffee pot warm tonight.
posted by Fizz at 2:40 PM on October 19, 2015


What I worry about is I have no coping skills if it turns out to be a Harper majority.... And I'm out of vodka....
posted by kanata at 2:41 PM on October 19, 2015


Don't bother. Nevin's been banging this drum that somehow the NDP and Cons are basically the same for about 77 days now. (Yeah, I know, I bothered too.)

Maybe it's a BC thing. Same voter base. Go outside of 604 and compare the provincial and federal ridings.

Anyway, I'm not saying they're the same, by the way. Just economic policies, that's all.

I'm not sure why anyone would be bothered. Political parties are complex, and are not monolithic.
posted by Nevin at 2:42 PM on October 19, 2015


Kanata: My liquor cabinet is well stocked, and you are welcome here should it come to it. But I expect to be having celebratory drinks instead.
posted by 256 at 2:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I started voting in the middle of the Chretien years and at the time it appeared that the parties all had a group of strong candidates/leaders, so it wasn't just the leader but other politicians as well. Maybe it is an artifact of Harper's control over the Cons, or the whole Chretien/Martin rivalry ultimately doing the Liberals in, but I don't see the same kind of depth on display now. It is very much Harper vs. Trudeau vs. Mulcair. I think the NDP would have been better off electing someone nicer as their leader and having Mulcair as his/her pit-bull, because angry Mulcair is great, smiling Mulcair not so much.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


If Harper pulls off a majority, all the booze in Canada will be pressed into service for Molotov-cocktails.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 2:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


BTW, the CBC live election coverage stream has started.

Prepare to use the "HIDE CHAT" button once you open that.
posted by nubs at 2:53 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm hoping for a good evening of results, but I gotta say, this thread is where I first heard about Lemurrhea and I'm kind of devastated, despite not knowing him except as comments here. Ouch.

Locally, Murray Rankin is a very accomplished guy and would make an excellent Minister. I'm not sure I wouldn't rather see a second Green member though so I'll probably vote that. The Liberal displayed her lack of class on Facebook and dropped out and the Conservative is MIA.
posted by Rumple at 2:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'll just leave this here.
posted by ODiV at 3:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


It's a Minority! What the Heck Happens Next? - "The most likely scenario explained. (Don't worry, we were puzzled, too.)"
posted by the man of twists and turns at 3:12 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


It's a Minority! What the Heck Happens Next? - "The most likely scenario explained. (Don't worry, we were puzzled, too.)"

tl;dr: Mulcair plays nice with Trudeau or we have another election within 6 months.
posted by 256 at 3:33 PM on October 19, 2015


Anyway, I'm not saying they're the same, by the way. Just economic policies, that's all.

Those are also markedly different.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 3:35 PM on October 19, 2015


Btw, the above applies whether it's a Lib or Con minority. Either Mulcair agrees to support Trudeau's throne speech and hold the balance of power, or Libs and NDP form a (formal or informal) coalition and form a government despite the Cons having the most seats. I really don't see either Trudeau or Mulcair supporting a Harper throne speech at this point.
posted by 256 at 3:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Voted!

It was tough in the end between the NDP guy who would probably do the best for my riding vs. the astronaut who would probably do the best for SCIENCE! nationally (help lead and take a couple steps forward after all the slashing Harper has done over the last decade).

I voted for the astronaut.
posted by mephisjo at 3:41 PM on October 19, 2015


Don't forget the role of the GG in that. If the GG (appointed by Harper...) decides that The Eminence Grise "commands the confidence of Parliament," then back into the PMO he goes.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 3:42 PM on October 19, 2015


then back into the PMO he goes

Until the next confidence vote, no?
posted by saturday_morning at 3:44 PM on October 19, 2015


Yup, and then lather rinse repeat.

This is no small part of why Trudeau's pigheaded refusal to engage in any kind of coalition throws into stark relief that what he really Wants is the PMO office and if he can't have it himself, too bad for Canada.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 3:48 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


CPAC also has election coverage and feeds to all the campaign headquarters.

I voted with my face covered with my tri-coloured Snoopy scarf (it has a little embroidered Snoopy on each end sitting on his dog house in pilot get-up). A worked actually came running and took me out of line and over to a special table where a very confused lady filled out a sermentation that I was me. I then confused my polling people who looked up the laws and read the paper and sought addition council. Once they got it all figured out, I signed it got my ballot and voted.
posted by phoque at 3:50 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I think Mulcair's pigheadedness on the coalition issue has been just as bad as Trudeau's. It goes to show that all three just want the power so badly and can't see past that.
posted by ssg at 3:51 PM on October 19, 2015


Oh and awesome post flex.
posted by phoque at 3:51 PM on October 19, 2015


I think Mulcair's pigheadedness on the coalition issue has been just as bad as Trudeau's.

One of them has flatly ruled it out, the other is open to the idea. Guess which is which.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 3:55 PM on October 19, 2015


Polls have just closed in Newfoundland and Labrador...
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:03 PM on October 19, 2015


Kate Beaton, of Hark! a Vagrant, drew a sketch of how awesome voting is in Canada.
posted by Kattullus at 4:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


The rational thing to do would be to go to bed early and see the results in the morning. Otherwise we'll be up until 2 am just obsessively watching TV and metafilter, and ... Ooh, CPAC put a "1" on the screen! So many more numbers to come!
posted by sfenders at 4:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


( ° ^ ° )
posted by Kevin Street at 4:10 PM on October 19, 2015


per CBC Liberals leading in three seats with 80% of the vote.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:11 PM on October 19, 2015


Voted! In and out in under 3 minutes. Went pretty much as Kate Beaton described.
posted by rodlymight at 4:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Ditto, except I didn't say POW

goddammit
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 4:12 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Quick! Get some early results in so we can all over-react and make wild extrapolations!
posted by nubs at 4:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I just voted. The polling station was in the gymnasium of the local Catholic middle school. There were a lot of people there, but I was in and out in less than 10 minutes. I was all prepared with my voter card, drivers licence, OHIP card, SIN card, and passport, but they checked me in with my voter card and drivers licence without question.

My riding, Scarborough North, is one of the most ethnically diverse areas anywhere. I voted for the incumbent NDP candidate. I'm very curious to see the outcome of this election, because the voting was very tight the last time, and the riding has been redistricted since then.

Fingers crossed. God speed, everyone.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:18 PM on October 19, 2015


And a big thank you to flex. This post was the final kick in the butt I needed to go vote. My riding would have never gone Conservative but adding one more "nope to Harper" vote sends its own message, even when the popular vote itself doesn't really do anything.
posted by mephisjo at 4:19 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


I can't even remember a time where a conservative campaign in this country wasn't immediately pointing fingers and attempting to be divisive as possible

Stanfield, Clark, Campbell.... hell.. Mulroney, Diefenbaker.

These people had different priorities, different ideas, but it was not scorched earth, win at any cost.

It took Harper to take lessons from the Americans.
posted by yyz at 4:20 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


The CBC feed is showing a Liberal lead in all 5 seats from Newfoundland and Labrador. Extrapolating from these figures, I think we can expect a landslide 100% Liberal majority.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [11 favorites]


Every vote matters, if your candidate wins or not. By voting you become part of the democratic process. If you don't vote you're just shutting yourself out.
posted by Kevin Street at 4:21 PM on October 19, 2015


Here's how old I am: whenever I see the name Trudeau, I remember living in Ottawa during the October Crisis.

It was fucking scary.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 4:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Just watch me.
posted by yyz at 4:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I mean one of the things we hope to see is an increase from the pretty dismal ~60% turnout that the last couple of elections have been. So in that respect every vote really does matter.
posted by quaking fajita at 4:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Results are now coming in from Newfoundland, but of course as usual the election will be decided by vote-rich Ontario.
posted by Flashman at 4:28 PM on October 19, 2015


Got my vote in. Lots of folks at the polling booth, everyone in high spirits including the poll workers. A very friendly vibe to the whole thing. Which scientifically proves there weren't any CPC voters around.

The thing about living in Justin's riding is, I don't have to think about voting strategically. So I could go NDP (although frankly I could've gone MLPC for all the difference it's gonna make).
posted by bulgroz at 4:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Just voted in Toronto Centre. There were probably about 80-100 people waiting to vote. Lucked out and got a poll with no line. I've never been so excited to vote or be a part of an election. Unfortunately that's more about being against someone rather than for, but if Harper's out then I'll rejoice simply in that tonight.
posted by beau jackson at 4:32 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Google has a handy real-time tabulation of results here.
posted by Short Attention Sp at 4:36 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Interesting that in Canada, polling places within a riding don't report their location along with their vote totals—this means you effectively can't discuss the swing (and use it to make predictions) until the vast majority of polling places in a riding have reported, by which time the result has probably been made clear anyway.

It does make for a calmer discussion and some cleaner graphics though
posted by Quilford at 4:37 PM on October 19, 2015


The swing being calculated by comparing a polling place's results with those of the previous election
posted by Quilford at 4:38 PM on October 19, 2015


Where are you getting that information, Quilford? When I worked elections (admittedly it's been 20 years...) I knew which part of the riding was represented by each polling place. Has this changed?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:41 PM on October 19, 2015


The first three seats have been declared... and they're Liberal! Only 335 more to go.:-)
posted by orange swan at 4:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


If you're up for it, Doug Ford is on the VICE stream right now.
posted by maudlin at 4:42 PM on October 19, 2015


Interesting that in Canada, polling places within a riding don't report their location along with their vote totals

Interesting. Elections Alberta actually does provide their results broken down by poll (sample results page from single riding during a recent by-election). On election night the results are updated live on the website as they come in, but there doesn't seem to be anything comparable on the Elections Canada site.
posted by figurant at 4:44 PM on October 19, 2015


Just voted and it feels so good. My riding (ottawa-orleans) looks like it's turning around and I'm excited to see the final numbers!
posted by Naib at 4:44 PM on October 19, 2015


The first three seats have been declared... and they're Liberal! Only 335 more to go.:-)


Agggh, I still have horrible memories of the first results of the UK election and how little they meant.

Still, fingers crossed.
posted by Artw at 4:44 PM on October 19, 2015


Whoever at Twitter decided that the "official" hashtag should be #elxn42 should be #f1r3d.
posted by oulipian at 4:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Oh they are reporting the swing right now so I might be mistaken: that 40% swing to the Liberals!
posted by Quilford at 4:47 PM on October 19, 2015


42K votes counted, Liberals take 70%. Gaddmmit, Canada, no one wants a majority Liberal government. Electoral Reform Now!!
posted by five fresh fish at 4:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


If Jack Harris loses his seat, it's all over for the ndp. He and Danny Williams are basically Newfoundlanders favorite politicians
posted by peppermind at 4:48 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


40% swing to the Liberals in the Maritimes. But you never know if that will translate into a trend in the rest of the country. The CBC is saying that 28 Liberal seats there will probably mean a majority Liberal government, but I don't know how they can say that.
posted by Kevin Street at 4:50 PM on October 19, 2015


Just got back from accompanying Mrs. A. To the polls in Calgary. Our polling station is in the Military Museum. It's rather cool and very, very sobering to be voting amidst reminders that people gave up their lives to ensure our freedom to choose our own destiny. Voting matters so much.

Am now camped on the couch with wine and snacks. I may not have fingernails left by the end of the night.
posted by arcticseal at 4:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


The Maritimes are necessary but not sufficient for a Liberal minority or majority. CBC talking head says 20-22 seats out east seems to be the threshold. They're leading or elected in 19 right now. Assume no sweep.
posted by maudlin at 4:52 PM on October 19, 2015


I just voted. In and out, no line up. Although about 20 people in line to register, which seemed more than usual.

Downtown Bloor St. and the subway was pretty deserted on my way home about an hour ago. Everyone off voting, or off to watch the game ?
posted by Kabanos at 4:53 PM on October 19, 2015


Jack Harris leading by about 100 votes from 8 polling places in his riding.
posted by Quilford at 4:53 PM on October 19, 2015


21 for Libs at the moment. I say Ontario is locked down for Libs as well
posted by cotton dress sock at 4:54 PM on October 19, 2015


22 (leading and won, sorry)
posted by cotton dress sock at 4:54 PM on October 19, 2015


I just voted at a quintessentially multi-cultural polling station in Regent Park, Toronto: Muslim, Indian, Chinese, Caribbean, African, students, business-suited Cabbagetonians. It was all very easy, everyone was smiling and jolly, and I left feeling euphoric. So many years of outrage and anguish under Harper, finally a chance to fight back.
posted by Flashman at 4:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


"The Maritimes" does not include Newfoundland and Labrador. The term you want is "Atlantic Provinces".
posted by oulipian at 4:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


My NDP candidate's office has visited me once and called me twice to make sure that I voted. I'm not sure if my riding is staying orange, or if this GOTV effort will pay off for them.
posted by maudlin at 4:56 PM on October 19, 2015


The term you want is "Atlantic Provinces".

Okay.
posted by Kevin Street at 4:57 PM on October 19, 2015


Just voted at Kingston City Hall - there was a line of people to register (mostly young folk, probably students) but I had my poll card so I was in and out in like 5 minutes. Now we wait.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 4:59 PM on October 19, 2015


Chantal Hébert is pointing out that there's been a solid trend for the Liberals in the Atlantic provinces for the last year or so. Current results there may not necessarily be correlated with the recent overall surge in the polls.
posted by maudlin at 5:01 PM on October 19, 2015


Ignore Atlantic results. We elected 22 of 32 Liberals back in 1988, and it barely dented Mulroney's second majority. We were predicted to go heavily Liberal anyway, so these results are just in line with the polling. Quebec is a total mess, and Ontario will do more to determine minority/majority anyway.

CBC briefly posted results in Cumberland-Colchester as 100% Conservatives after 5 polls. It got quickly corrected to about 60% Liberal (Bill Casey, the former PC who voted against the party and got booted by Harper, looks to be returning as a Liberal).
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:01 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


oulipian: "The Maritimes" does not include Newfoundland and Labrador. The term you want is "Atlantic Provinces".

I once saw The Maritimes headline at Avalon, supported by Atlantic Provinces and The District of Athabasca. Good show.
posted by Kattullus at 5:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Oh they are reporting the swing right now so I might be mistaken: that 40% swing to the Liberals!

Even if they don't have the location of the reporting polls, they can assume that it will usually be the same ones reporting first, or else that they always come in at random, without detracting all that much from the utility of very early measures of "swing".

Liberals are way ahead in the crucial demographic of people living east of the Eastern time zone in places where they're good at counting quickly!
posted by sfenders at 5:04 PM on October 19, 2015


I've switched to VICE's lo-fi charm. (Their genuine 3D model of Parliament is adorable.)

They are currently discussing the metaphor of the election as a dumpster fire.
posted by maudlin at 5:04 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


A friend has arrived with vodka and chocolate! Coping mechanisms in place. Will all be decided usually by the time they count the votes out here on the west coast of the west coast. What's the proper party music if Stephen doesn't get heaved?
posted by kanata at 5:06 PM on October 19, 2015


What's the proper party music if Stephen doesn't get heaved?

DOA's 'Fuck You' from Hardcore '81 would be my choice.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:08 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Vice has Damian Abraham doing the election? Looks more fun than Peter Mansbridge.
posted by sauril at 5:09 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm not American, but the night Bush won in 2004 I came home from a party which turned into a wake and threw on That Lucky Old Sun.
posted by The Card Cheat at 5:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


What's the proper party music if Stephen doesn't get heaved?

Or "Something's Gonna Die Tonight" by Hard Core Logo.
posted by 256 at 5:10 PM on October 19, 2015


Man, I'm supposed to be studying tonight. I don't see how that's going to happen.
posted by cotton dress sock at 5:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Nine seats declared so far, all Liberal. This begins well!
posted by orange swan at 5:11 PM on October 19, 2015


VICE has Damian, Doug Ford, and Chris Hedges. Must watch.
posted by maudlin at 5:13 PM on October 19, 2015


YAY LIBERALS
posted by symbioid at 5:14 PM on October 19, 2015


I am hoping for a strong Liberal showing but I'm feeling awfully anxious for Megan Leslie right now. She's fantastic, popular and NDP leadership material but is trailing a mediocre city planner right now.
posted by Flashman at 5:14 PM on October 19, 2015


CBC's got Atlantic Canada at 32-0-0. Holy moley.

I voted Liberal (in the 905). I would have much rather voted NDP, but this is a Conservative stronghold and I've seen only a couple of orange signs amid the red sea of Liberal signs.
posted by Sys Rq at 5:15 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Holy crap, Libs leading or elected in all 32
posted by Quilford at 5:15 PM on October 19, 2015


All 32!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:15 PM on October 19, 2015


At this second, the Liberals are declared or leading in ALL 32 RIDINGS WITH POLLING DATA.
posted by 256 at 5:15 PM on October 19, 2015


Triple Jinx.
posted by 256 at 5:16 PM on October 19, 2015


whoa - the Cons had 14 seats from Atlantic Canada last election.
posted by sauril at 5:16 PM on October 19, 2015


The Liberals started this election with just 34 seats across the country, and are currently leading or elected in all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada. Wild.
posted by oulipian at 5:16 PM on October 19, 2015


Liberals, Caucus of +2 (so far).
posted by maudlin at 5:16 PM on October 19, 2015


holy shit
posted by cotton dress sock at 5:17 PM on October 19, 2015


Late to the party, but thanks flex for this amazing post. I'm in an NDP stronghold in BC (and voted accordingly), but will be watching the more interesting ridings for the GVRD (Vancouver-Granville and Coquitlam-Port Moody).
posted by just_ducky at 5:17 PM on October 19, 2015


Liberal supermajority uh oh
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 5:18 PM on October 19, 2015


There are some very good NDP MPs trailing right now. In Nova Scotia alone, there's Stoffer, Leslie, Chisholm... No way these results hold.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:18 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


What's the proper party music if Stephen doesn't get heaved?

Hardly Getting Over It by Hüsker Dü gets my vote.
posted by arcticseal at 5:18 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I strategically voted for the NDP, but I donated to the Liberals. Money well spent so far.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 5:19 PM on October 19, 2015


If this holds, I can't see the conservatives gaining that many more seats across the country. Although Quebec....

Whatever happens, it's going to be an interesting night.
posted by sauril at 5:19 PM on October 19, 2015


I am not getting any more billable hours in today. Just in case any of you was on the edge of your seat about that.
posted by maudlin at 5:19 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


What's the proper party music if Stephen doesn't get heaved?

"Farewell to Nova Scotia"?
posted by Sys Rq at 5:20 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Alas, Canada, I have to go to bed because of a 6:15 am spin class then work. I wish us all well!
posted by Kitteh at 5:20 PM on October 19, 2015




Communist Party is beating the Marxist-Leninists, 55 to 6. Rhinos only have 17.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


How about "Lost Together" by Blue Rodeo? But honestly... there may be no need for condolence music.
posted by orange swan at 5:22 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


uh oh

Honestly, I just want Harper and his cadre out the door at this point, whatever it takes. If they were to get turfed out with such vigor that it trashed their party and their idiot ideology as a force in Canadian politics (oh, I can dream!) all the better. Balance, moderation and consensus seeking are fine Canadian ideals, I know, but in this case the devil you know just can't be better.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:22 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


Now we get to watch the talking heads go nuts over these 32 seats for the next hour; CTV is currently asking Peter McKay who should be blamed and if Harper should resign.

A little premature, I think.
posted by nubs at 5:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Back to 31! Conservative is leading by 5 votes in Tobique—Mactaquac!

That's flipped twice now.
posted by sauril at 5:26 PM on October 19, 2015


One of those seats is leaning Conservative again.

I told myself I wouldn't spend the entire evening staring at early numbers as I have in every Canadian or American election for the last two decades, but...
posted by 256 at 5:27 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


I know, me too - but I've got practice to go to from 6:30 to 8:30 or so, so my close following won't last.
posted by sauril at 5:29 PM on October 19, 2015


Tobique—Mactaquac went CPC in 2011 and was expected to stay CPC this year, according to pollsters.
posted by maudlin at 5:29 PM on October 19, 2015


Royals up by one at the bottom of the first.
posted by Flashman at 5:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Balance, moderation and consensus seeking are fine Canadian ideals

Let's get some peace, order and good government all up in this motherfucker.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


Back to 32. Flip-flopping about
posted by Quilford at 5:30 PM on October 19, 2015


I just wanted to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by saturday_morning at 5:31 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


And now Fundy Royal flips blue.
posted by 256 at 5:33 PM on October 19, 2015


Peter Mansbridge just reminded everybody that he remembers Diefenbaker. Awk-ward...
posted by Kevin Street at 5:34 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm sure he's referring to the dog from Due South.
posted by 256 at 5:34 PM on October 19, 2015 [11 favorites]


Really surprised by this. I figured a handful of NB ridings, maybe one in NS, would go Conservative. And I expected the NDP to out-do the Conservatives. This is a shellacking. Nationally, though, it means virtually nothing. Any pundit extrapolating this to anything but Atlantic hatred of Harper deserves to be mocked.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:36 PM on October 19, 2015


There's still reason to expect that 2-3 NB ridings could go blue.

Tea, anyone?
posted by maudlin at 5:36 PM on October 19, 2015


It's 9:30 in the morning here in Korea, or I'd be on the liquor. the liquor, randy!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I'll have a mug of whiskey thanks
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 5:39 PM on October 19, 2015


At 308.com Tobique-Mactaquac was forecast to be a close call between Conservative and Liberal, so that's accurate. Fundy Royal they had as Conservative by a very large margin.
posted by sfenders at 5:40 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm having Fuck Harper Wine!

It's just my regular wine I bought at Costco, I'm just THINKING about how much I hate Harper while I drink it.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


Make it 33-0-0 for the Liberals.
posted by 256 at 5:44 PM on October 19, 2015


Although Quebec....

Don't worry about Quebec, we are not going to elect more than a handful of Conservatives (if that). The NDP wave was a protest vote but when Layton died, so did the NDP's soft support and after we gave them the official opposition they seemed to take it for granted. The Bloc hasn't really surged back and Harper is not liked, while governing he usually ran at 8% support in the province (with a high of about 16%). So the Liberals have good chances. But it is pretty much all going to be left wing.

In my riding the Bloc, NDP, Liberals, and Green all get more votes than Conservatives and I think 2 elections ago they were even behind the Pot party candidate here.
posted by phoque at 5:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm listening to Chris Hall, Michael Enright on CBC radio... they're using the term "rout" for the Cons in Atlantic Canada.
posted by Nevin at 5:45 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Make it 33-0-0 for the Liberals.

Well, based on only 1 of 214 polls reporting in GASPÉSIE-LES ÎLES-DE-LA-MADELEINE so far, but hooray nonetheless!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:46 PM on October 19, 2015


Blue Jays 2-1 over Royals. You know, if you prefer close contests.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Yeah, in my Quebec riding, we have an NDP incumbent with a Liberal challenger nipping very close at her heels. The Conservative and Bloc candidates are both estimated at barely double digit support. There are a lot of ridings like this in Quebec.
posted by 256 at 5:47 PM on October 19, 2015


26 seats and 7 leads out of 33 reported ridings for the Liberals. We're just getting started, but Harper is probably feeling cold chills right now.
posted by orange swan at 5:48 PM on October 19, 2015


I bet Harper is sitting alone in a room somewhere with half a warm bottle of Blue Light.
posted by The Card Cheat at 5:49 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I wonder if it'll be a cyanide capsule or his vintage Luger?
posted by Flashman at 5:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


You know, the really fun question is whether the Liberals can get to 180 before the polls even close in the Prairies.

I certainly don't love FPTP, but I could...
posted by Sys Rq at 5:51 PM on October 19, 2015


Stephen Harper does not strike me as a drinker of beer. In fact he does not strike me as a drinker of anything, other of course than the tears of orphans.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:52 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


The funny thing about watching the Liberal sweep in Newfoundland is that it's poised to happen all over again in a month in the provincial election.
posted by oulipian at 5:53 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


First Nations people didn't get the right to vote until 1960! I did not know that.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:54 PM on October 19, 2015




Listening to Peter MacKay sadly discussing the rout in the Maritimes. Such a disappointment of a man.
posted by Nevin at 5:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


What's a good live stream coverage besides CBC? It keeps cutting out for me.
posted by kanata at 5:55 PM on October 19, 2015


If the Liberals win in Jonquiere I'm going to start suspecting that I've been kidnapped by aliens and this is all an elaborate simulation.
posted by sfenders at 5:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


The live stream from Vice is actually an interesting mix of silliness and good reporting.
posted by Jeanne at 5:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


CPAC is running strong for me, no ads and language choice.
posted by phoque at 5:58 PM on October 19, 2015


To quote Graham Steele in his succinct review of the NDP's provincial defeat in Nova Scotia, the arse is right out of 'er, all across Atlantic Canada.

So, there you go Canada. We did our part to get rid of Harper. I can only hope you've all held your end of the non-Conservative bargain.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 5:58 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


This election might be over before when the polls close in Harper's riding. What a rout.
posted by dw at 5:59 PM on October 19, 2015


Au contraire! Look at him drinking a beer, just like a real person!

Well, that is clearly a beer bottle, but it is my contention that it is actually filled to the very brim with the distilled broken dreams of a nation.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 5:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [18 favorites]


and this is all an elaborate simulation.

"Yeah, I'd like to order one large politics, with extra politicans please. Conservatives—no-no-no-no—Liberals ... and New Democrats on half."
posted by Lorin at 5:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Adding my thanks to flex for this great post.

I voted. No major line-up which was great because I went straight to vote after picking up the kids from preschool and kindergarten. As it was our poll was añ extra subway stop away from our house so if we had had to wait it would have been even more of a long walk home. I can't wait for the results!
posted by biggreenplant at 5:59 PM on October 19, 2015


@Card Cheat: drinking "beer"

Coincidentally, I'm drinking beer as well Black Oak Brewing's Ten Bitter Years as I listen / watch this unfold. Weirdly appropriate I think. Fingers crossed for Ontario!
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:00 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I just had a sudden, vivid fantasy of Harper not even winning his own seat.
posted by orange swan at 6:00 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]




Looks like the flip-flopping has stopped with those two Atlantic Canada seats... haven't seen the Tory blue on the screen for a while
posted by Quilford at 6:02 PM on October 19, 2015


CBC interstitial: "Voting - it's your power, and it's kind of your responsibility."

Oh Canada.
posted by benito.strauss at 6:02 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]




I have a bottle of Screech standing by that's hopefully for celebration, but will also satisfy if the worst comes to pass as well.

Getting wrecked on Screech is good for any extreme, honestly.
posted by Imperfect at 6:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Canada I'm so sorry for giggling at whatever just aired on the CBC stream
posted by theodolite at 6:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


OK, so what is there to do for the next 30 minutes?

Jays 3-2.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 6:04 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


@orangeswan that is not happening, unfortunately. Too bad too, cause Matt Masters is pretty awesome.
posted by sauril at 6:04 PM on October 19, 2015


Hahaha yeah, broadcasters desperately trying to kill time until the polls close elsewhere. Saw someone quip that election night is one of the rare times Canadians spend two hours talking about Atlantic Canada.
posted by Quilford at 6:05 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


There's a special disdain in most parts of Atlantic Canada for Harper, so it's not necessarily indicative of what will happen in Quebec, Ontario, or Alberta. Still, I am hopeful...
posted by beau jackson at 6:05 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


The CBC interstitial did tug at the heartstrings. Open land for open thinking...
posted by arcticseal at 6:06 PM on October 19, 2015


It might not be good news, but it's not bad news from Atlantic Canada. Hurry up, 9:30.
posted by jeather at 6:07 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Data nerds might enjoy the CBC's results dashboard.
posted by The Outsider at 6:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


What's the proper party music if Stephen doesn't get heaved?

The Star Spangled Banner.
posted by yyz at 6:10 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


(6-2 Jays.)
posted by maudlin at 6:10 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Word coming in that Tulo just hit a 3 run homer
posted by Flashman at 6:11 PM on October 19, 2015


LPC leading and elected: 33 ridings.

The rest: 0.

That is some start.
posted by beau jackson at 6:11 PM on October 19, 2015


Canada I'm so sorry for giggling at whatever just aired on the CBC stream

That's cool, but it made me inordinately proud, and hopeful.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Our long national nightmare is over. Somebody finally scored in the beer pong game on the VICE stream.

Diorama up next!
posted by maudlin at 6:13 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


CBC has the libs at 61% overall. Just wow.
posted by Mitheral at 6:13 PM on October 19, 2015


Oh no, I liked it, it's refreshing to see that level of unabashed patriotism feel earnest and gentle rather than faintly horrifying
posted by theodolite at 6:16 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


For the record, the spousal unit and I are drinking Deschutes River Ale while we watch the CBC stream. I wouldn't know where to find Canadian beer here, other than maybe at the hockey bar?
posted by quaking fajita at 6:17 PM on October 19, 2015


Go Jays! Go Liberals! Go Banana!
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 6:17 PM on October 19, 2015


30 of 33 declared for Liberals, and they're leading in the remaining 3.

I've never voted anything but NDP in Canada in any elections I've been able to vote in and I'm no great fan of the Liberal party of today, but: go go go! It's absolutely true that more colors are going to start showing up on the board as we creep westward, but it's a great start.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:18 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Creemore Springs Altbier here, but I just ran out. Honey, where's the cooking sherry?
posted by Artful Codger at 6:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


My polling place was easy. However, I was not directed to the correct table by a greeter; I had to remember to look at my voter card and find the small-print info on it. That’s different than usual. And I also don’t recall there being any voting instructions, while I’m sure that I remember there being instructions all over the place last federal election. There may have been other subtle changes, too. Like fewer polling stations. And it was held in the smaller room, not the big gymnasium we used last time. Last time it was bright and spacious and lots of helpers and dedicated solely to the vote; this time it was dark and cramped and there was a Georgette charity shop entrance and a coffee shop entrance in the same room.

There’s been some serious bullshit pulled here. Previous elections were done *much better.* The “Fair Elections Act” has made things *worse.*

(The ID thing: no issue. Showed a DL, voted. Just like always.)
posted by davidpriest.ca at 6:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


6 minutes until polls close in QC and ON, and Jays just scored again: 9-2. This is nuts.
posted by maudlin at 6:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


This is absolutely nuts to have any party completely sweeping the Atlantic provinces.

Not bad nuts, mind, just... my brain has exploded.
posted by juliebug at 6:25 PM on October 19, 2015


I think I started watching too early, since I just watched a guy stand on the street in Toronto saying "this is a new riding border!" Maybe they could plan how to fill time more boringly.
posted by jeather at 6:26 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Blue Jays 9-2.

Mandate of Heaven, baby.
posted by figurant at 6:27 PM on October 19, 2015


Like maudlin said, it's a matter of minutes until Quebec and Ontario start reporting in, so... wait for it!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:27 PM on October 19, 2015


But he had sidewalk chalk!
posted by quaking fajita at 6:27 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I am waiting in a small rural polling station with seven polls and a bunch of punchy EC staff counting down the minutes. I'm scrutineering this time, so no counting for me, yay! I am so excited for this election. Everyone is watching to see if anyone will run in the last minute, although it looks like most of the people in this area DID vote - good for them.
posted by saucysault at 6:27 PM on October 19, 2015



A concussion and 5 new staples in my head did not keep me from voting tonight. Thankfully my polling station was on the way home from the hospital.

I just had to make my X this election even though my riding is pretty much a safe Con seat.

Won't be glued to the computer or tv to watch the numbers rolls in. I'm on no sustained computer or tv use doctor order. Poor me....

I'll just peek in every now and then while I spend the rest of the evening staring at the wall.
posted by Jalliah at 6:27 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


Disenfranchised Canadian checking in from California. I wish I could vote and I'd show all my ID but alas. Drinking Crown Royal and Canada Dry here. I hope the rest of the country turns as red as the Atlantic provinces. My parents are in Thunder Bay Superior North which is an interesting race. They said it was slow to vote because their IDs got checked 3 times in about 30 feet of queue.
posted by marylynn at 6:28 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


So... anyone know when the Star Wars trailer hits?
posted by GhostintheMachine at 6:28 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


In-depth Murdock mystery commentary now. Stephen's favorite show.
posted by kanata at 6:29 PM on October 19, 2015


A concussion and 5 new staples in my head did not keep me from voting tonight.

So they didn't stop at pre-marking ballots.

Also, the Bulleit is flowing University-Rosedale.
posted by Beardman at 6:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Just a reminder: The Blue Jays won the World Series the year Jean Chrétien became PM.

(So did Kim Campbell, but never you mind that.)



(Yes, Kim Campbell won the World Series.)
posted by Sys Rq at 6:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [11 favorites]


Let the wild rumpus begin!

263 ridings closing now.
posted by nubs at 6:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


IT'S TIME
posted by Quilford at 6:30 PM on October 19, 2015


The only thing I know for sure now is that the baseball Gods are also sick of Harper's shit.
posted by beau jackson at 6:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


The relief on everyone's face as other polls closed and they can stop talking about Atlantic Canada.
posted by jeather at 6:31 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Hearing Harper on the CBC right now and just realizing that I no longer have to hear those FUCKING political ads that the CBC was OBLIGED to run several times a day.
posted by maudlin at 6:31 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Here's how old I am: whenever I see the name Trudeau, I remember living in Ottawa during the October Crisis.
I'm barely old enough to remember the October Crisis, too. I was in grade school at the time. Edgar J Benson, the Liberal Finance Minister, lived in my neighbourhood. I remember his daughter came to school with two armed soldiers as body guards.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 6:32 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Vote....Rich...Ontario!
posted by Flashman at 6:32 PM on October 19, 2015


Tories back on the board
posted by Quilford at 6:32 PM on October 19, 2015


Holy crap, Jalliah -- that's determination!

1) Did they give you a stapler remover tool to bring to your GP when it's staple removal time? Those are cool.
2) Watch out for vertigo in the morning. Any hit that required staples may have done a number on your vestibular system, too.
posted by maudlin at 6:33 PM on October 19, 2015


Justin Trudeau's living room! His mother is there! As you know, his mother was married to his father.
posted by jeather at 6:34 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


Reporting ridings when there's less than 600 votes total? Are ridings just very very small, or is CBC jumping the gun there?
posted by benito.strauss at 6:35 PM on October 19, 2015


I notice Margaret Trudeau has stayed completely out of sight and off radar during the campaign. Which was probably wise.
posted by orange swan at 6:35 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm assuming these are advance polls reporting? Because I can't see how they counted this fast.
posted by nubs at 6:35 PM on October 19, 2015


NDP back on the board.

These are votes that were cast before polling day that have been counted in advance.
posted by Quilford at 6:36 PM on October 19, 2015


A concussion and 5 new staples in my head did not keep me from voting tonight. Thankfully my polling station was on the way home from the hospital.

*hearty applause*

Hope you have a speedy recovery!
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:36 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


benito.strauss: "Are ridings just very very small, or is CBC jumping the gun there?"

Just leading or elected.
posted by Mitheral at 6:36 PM on October 19, 2015


Reporting ridings when there's less than 600 votes total? Are ridings just very very small, or is CBC jumping the gun there?

That happens. I remember a couple of elections ago, every Marxist-Leninist in a certain riding arranged to go vote at the same poll, which they anticipated being the first to report in their riding. So, for about ten minutes, Peter Mansbridge was stuck saying that the Marxist-Leninist Party was leading in one riding.
posted by 256 at 6:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [20 favorites]


Justin Trudeau's living room! His mother is there! As you know, his mother was married to his father.

Scandalous! Is there anything Margaret Trudeau won't do?!
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 6:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


benito.strauss - most ridings have a number of polling stations that feed into them, so there are a few polling stations reporting already, such as those from advanced polls and smaller polls. That's likely what you're seeing.
posted by juliebug at 6:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Justin Trudeau's living room! His mother is there! As you know, his mother was married to his father.

It would be quite a trick if his father was there.
posted by Kevin Street at 6:37 PM on October 19, 2015


1) Did they give you a stapler remover tool to bring to your GP when it's staple removal time? Those are cool.
2) Watch out for vertigo in the morning. Any hit that required staples may have done a number on your vestibular system, too.


No they didn't have to go in. That tool would be so cool.
And yes I'll be sure to watch out. Doc order me to take a couple of days off work so it shouldn't be too bad.
posted by Jalliah at 6:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


It seems appropriate to me to post an excerpt from Jack Layton's parting letter:

Canada is a great country, one of the hopes of the world. We can be a better one – a country of greater equality, justice, and opportunity. We can build a prosperous economy and a society that shares its benefits more fairly. We can look after our seniors. We can offer better futures for our children. We can do our part to save the world’s environment. We can restore our good name in the world. We can do all of these things because we finally have a party system at the national level where there are real choices; where your vote matters; where working for change can actually bring about change. In the months and years to come, New Democrats will put a compelling new alternative to you. My colleagues in our party are an impressive, committed team. Give them a careful hearing; consider the alternatives; and consider that we can be a better, fairer, more equal country by working together. Don’t let them tell you it can’t be done.

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.


Maybe the NDP won't carry the day today, but we can change the world.
posted by arcticseal at 6:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


NDP is on the board in Ontario with Timmins James Bay -- but Charlie Angus is barely ahead. Come ON, people. Baby! Bathwater! (If Andrew Cash doesn't make it in Davenport, that's 50% of L'Etranger and two damn good MPs lost.)
posted by maudlin at 6:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


CTV declaring Liberal win, by which they mean the Libs will have the most seats, minority or not.
posted by nubs at 6:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


CTV just called it for the Liberals
posted by flex at 6:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Damn it western Canada I love you you are my heartland but stop being assholes already.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:40 PM on October 19, 2015


CBC has called it too.
posted by maudlin at 6:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Personal irritation with CBC. Sask isn't the west. There's a whole other province past the Rockies. /BC is always forgotten...
posted by kanata at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015


Canada's Back, Baby!
posted by Flashman at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


CBC just did it too.
posted by Sys Rq at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015


CBC calls it
posted by Quilford at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015


CTV just called it for the Liberals

That seems premature, doesn't it?

Hell, CBC just did the same! Wha?
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015


And the CBC called it.
posted by jeather at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015


Mansbridge is teetering on the brink...oh, there we go. He's called a Liberal gov't.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015


Charlie Angus needs to hang in there because I'd totally support the NDP if he was party leader.
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:41 PM on October 19, 2015


11 minutes later? I realize EVERYONE HAS TO HAVE THE SCOOP, but c'mon.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


btw, the CBC called the election for... oh never mind.

(yay)
posted by Artful Codger at 6:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Oh my god Canada, finally. Congratulations!
posted by LobsterMitten at 6:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Holy shitballs. They're saying 'with confidence' on the CBC.

I am now even more tense than I was before. I am only confident in saying SUCK IT HARPER, either way.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Hahahahahahah FUCK YOU HARPER
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 6:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [18 favorites]


Congratulations! That Harper guy seemed really awful.
posted by theodolite at 6:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Yeah, aren't the polls in BC still open? Suck for those who have still to vote.
posted by beau jackson at 6:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I hope this doesn't get the Blue Jays all giddy and distracted.
posted by Flashman at 6:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I hate the calling of the election.. Polls are still open in BC. At least keep it until they are closed everywhere.
posted by kanata at 6:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


The Card Cheat - Agreed. Can't believe it's being called so early.
posted by juliebug at 6:43 PM on October 19, 2015


I think Justin Trudeau et famille are at the Queen Elizabeth in Montreal (couple blocks east of me, in fact).
posted by ricochet biscuit at 6:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


goddammit I wanted to be the one to announce the winner!
posted by bitteroldman at 6:44 PM on October 19, 2015


Is that a record for how fast?
posted by jeather at 6:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Seriously them being called affects people voting here cause I hear a lot of voters saying why bother the east decides everything...
posted by kanata at 6:44 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm thrilled, but calling it before polls close in BC does seem awfully irresponsible to me. Huh.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:45 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I hope this doesn't get the Blue Jays all giddy and distracted.

Most of the players aren't Canadian, so no worries. (save about two, I believe).

But I wonder if there was a cheer from the crowd as the winner was announced?
posted by beau jackson at 6:46 PM on October 19, 2015


Remember, western Canada, it was Harper who lifted the reporting embargo.
posted by Artful Codger at 6:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


Mulcair is currently losing in his riding. Only 3 of 194 polls, though.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 6:46 PM on October 19, 2015


benito.strauss: "Reporting ridings when there's less than 600 votes total? Are ridings just very very small, or is CBC jumping the gun there?"

Canadian ridings range from 25k to 125k citizens, while US House seats average 640,000 citizens. So they're small! But also you often can predict elections from a few swing precincts -- like in Peoria we know that Peoria north (big suburban homes, almost exclusively white) will always go Republican, while Peoria south (densely-packed minority communities) will always go Democrat, but the central precincts are within X% of the majority vote and are good at predicting the swing. Or if you see Peoria north voting Obama, that's gonna be a Democrat sweep. Predicting off very small precinct reports is where reporter expertise comes in. Generally you'll have local political reporters who are encyclopedic about past elections (and also have all the data in front of them because they are thorough!) watching particular precincts and looking for the swing. They will report this to regional bureau editors who will send it up to national bureaus; this is a big part of what makes local reporters valuable. I'm sure MetaFilter has local political reporters (in the US and Canada) who can talk about how they predict!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I just like flat screamed in this bar & showbiz_liz bought me a shot of Canadian whiskey & I downed it. I am here with MeFites to support me in NYC and I LOVE YOU ALL #FuckHarper
posted by flex at 6:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [42 favorites]


Mulcair lagging, Mansbridge feeling awks about it
posted by cotton dress sock at 6:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


So explain this to an American, please?

Can the Liberals "form a government" by themselves if they get less than 50%?

If not, is everyone assuming Liberal+NDP is automatic?

How much and what kind of difference does is make between "Just Liberal" and "Coalition"?
posted by benito.strauss at 6:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm not calling it or putting any faith in those who call it. It's too soon. But it does look good, much better than I ever expected, and I'm enjoying the ride.
posted by orange swan at 6:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Harperman: it's time for you to go
posted by dhruva at 6:47 PM on October 19, 2015


stavrosthewonderchicken: "That seems premature, doesn't it? "

Mansbridge is explaining it pretty well. Liberals are returning ~40% pretty much across the board in Ontario in early returns which means they take Ontario and the election. Making the point that returns are the best polling you can do.
posted by Mitheral at 6:48 PM on October 19, 2015


Remember, western Canada, it was Harper who lifted the reporting embargo.

Hah! I didn't know that, but it doesn't fucking surprise me that Harper's government was responsible. Don't let the door hit you in ass on the way out, you goddamned shitleopard.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:48 PM on October 19, 2015 [16 favorites]


I'm thrilled, but calling it before polls close in BC does seem awfully irresponsible to me. Huh.
Math is funny like that.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 6:48 PM on October 19, 2015



Can the Liberals "form a government" by themselves if they get less than 50%?


Minority government.
posted by Sys Rq at 6:48 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm not calling it yet, either. It's good news so far, but a lot can still change.
posted by Kevin Street at 6:48 PM on October 19, 2015


Lulz@Mansbridge cracking "just not ready" jokes about the Liberal 'two-election' strategy.
posted by Kreiger at 6:48 PM on October 19, 2015


Mark D. Jarvis is pissed off: MANSBRIDGE!!!!! you don’t know PM if you aren’t declaring majority.
posted by maudlin at 6:49 PM on October 19, 2015


My head is pounding so hard right now so I'm only jumping up and down in my imagination.

I'm at the point of anyone but Harper and although I'd like to see the NDP do well I'll be happy.

I'm also happy that its looking like I now will remember the day I helped vote to get Harper out while being all badass like, with staples in my head and dried blood in my hair and that's just awesome. (can't wash it till tomorrow morning).
posted by Jalliah at 6:49 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


Favourited stavrosthewonderchicken for "you goddamned shitleopard". I'm totally stealing that one.
posted by HillbillyInBC at 6:50 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


benito.strauss: "Can the Liberals "form a government" by themselves if they get less than 50%?"

Yes, a minority government where you need cooperation from other parties (but not always the same party) to pass "confidence votes" (basically the throne speech and budgets). And it is 50% of the ridings not 50% of the popular vote that counts.
posted by Mitheral at 6:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


BTW, current seats won or leading count is:

Liberals: 81
Conservatives: 41
NDP: 11
BQ: 1
posted by maudlin at 6:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


It's somewhat out of date now of course but anyone curious about Canada's electoral history up to the Mulroney Daze is encouraged to seek a copy of Fights of our Lives, by John Duffy. An excellent, excellent, and very readable (also excellent) book.
posted by hearthpig at 6:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


In a minute too late on being the first to love 'shitleopard'.
posted by Kreiger at 6:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Math is funny like that.

I have a degree in mathematics. My point isn't about statistical analysis being hard, it's about the ethical implications of calling an election while polls are open.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:52 PM on October 19, 2015 [14 favorites]


Sad that I'm only listening to the Radio and missing Mansbridge's antics.

Anyway, I agree that if a party doesn't have a majority, media should be declaring a winner so early in the evening. Coalitions are still possible. They are not likely in this event, but it's just not a forgone conclusion based on how our democracy works.

in conclusion, and most importantly, Fuck Harper.
posted by beau jackson at 6:52 PM on October 19, 2015


What's this about polls running out of ballots all over the place? Any idea as to turnout yet?
posted by quaking fajita at 6:52 PM on October 19, 2015


CBC is calling my riding Liberal...I couldn't vote for them after C-51, but I can live with them. Hurry up and finish counting so I can have some Fuck Harper gin with my creatine before bed.
posted by Kreiger at 6:53 PM on October 19, 2015


Leopards are majestic animals and do not deserve this association with Harper.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:53 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I think my brave act of civil disobedience when I broke Canadian law by telling Canadians not to vote for Harper was the impetus for this great victory.

You're welcome, Canada!
posted by Justinian at 6:54 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


So are hawks. Bubbles is still freaked out by shithawks.
posted by Kreiger at 6:56 PM on October 19, 2015


Leopards are majestic animals and do not deserve this association with Harper.

I apologize. Also, 'a shitleopard can't change its spots' is a Jim Lahey-ism, so I can't really take credit.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Libs starting to surge ahead after it looked like the Tories were closing the gap a tiny bit.
posted by Quilford at 6:57 PM on October 19, 2015


Go, Go Trudeau! (English & Français)
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:58 PM on October 19, 2015


It's way closer than I'd like, because there's always a fusillade of Conservative seats in the west. Alberta has mostly reported in, but there's still BC.
posted by Kevin Street at 6:59 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm in a movie theatre full of young people watching the CBC coverage, with beer and popcorn. Lots of cheers for a post-Harper future, and also for Nenshi.
posted by parudox at 6:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I don't mean to alarm anyone, it's only 2 polls reporting, but the Liberals appear to be leading in Jonquiere.
posted by sfenders at 7:00 PM on October 19, 2015


I am so OVERWHELMED WITH HAPPINESS. My beloved Canada, the one I left over 20 years ago, may not be lost after all. Thank you, my fellow Canadians. I love you.
posted by nanook at 7:01 PM on October 19, 2015 [11 favorites]


Breaking: Blue Jays leading or elected in 128 Star Wars trailers. CBC projects a Bautista government with a Stormtrooper opposition
posted by oulipian at 7:01 PM on October 19, 2015 [23 favorites]


Nenshi is cool. We need more western progressives to make themselves heard.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:01 PM on October 19, 2015


The Tories have won two seats so far. At least Harper can say he didn't do worse than Kim Campbell.
posted by orange swan at 7:02 PM on October 19, 2015


Latest elected - leading numbers:
Liberal 32- 97 (129)
Conservative Party 0- 72
New Democrat 0- 14
Bloc Quebecois 0- 3
Green Party 0- 0
posted by maudlin at 7:03 PM on October 19, 2015


Ryan Goins Home Run!
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


55% popular vote, wow.
posted by jeather at 7:03 PM on October 19, 2015


benito.strauss: "Can the Liberals "form a government" by themselves if they get less than 50%?"

Sort-of. Basically budget votes are make-or-break for Parliament (in the UK and Canada and Australia) and if you can't get your budget passed, your government fails. Non-budget votes for the most part can fail without consequences. It helps to remember that the House of Commons largely developed to have power over taxation of ordinary people, and the King required consent of the ordinary people to raise his war funds. All tax bills have to originate in the House of Commons, so in most English-descended systems, the legitimacy of the Parliament is dependent upon being able to pass a budget bill. (And in the US, the thing that jams up the government and makes it shut down is if the House can't pass a budget.) So the really major key thing for the PM of Canada is that he be able to get his budget passed into law. He could fail at 90% of his other bills, as long as his budget goes through.

(The Crown Speech can also make Parliament fail, but that's basically a statement of the plurality/majority party's goals, you should just assume it's a statement that the budget won't make it.)

So basically the NDP ministers could vote for the Liberal budget, and then vote against everything else the Liberals propose, and the Liberals would be able to continue on for quite a while. The key point is having a budget fail. A Coalition government would typically be two (or more) parties agreeing to forward a larger agenda than just the budget -- maybe a broad one, maybe a very narrow one that consisted only of issues they could agree on.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:04 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


A redemption story! Goins homer, baseball is just like a soap opera. oh wrong thread sorry...
posted by beau jackson at 7:05 PM on October 19, 2015


My cousin worked for a firm called Tory & Tory back in '93. He turned up somewhere in a ballcap that they'd given him, and was (jokingly, I think) accused of gloating. I love that story, even if this isn't that kind of whupping yet.
posted by Kreiger at 7:05 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I've been cutting back on the drinking, but I mixed up a little cocktail — rye, bitters, and maple syrup — to make a toast to you all tonight. Well done, Canada, Bien fait!
posted by benito.strauss at 7:07 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Whoa. Mulcair's getting blown out in his riding.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:07 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I have a feeling those of us in BC are going to show that we're out of sync with the rest of the country.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:08 PM on October 19, 2015


Star Wars trailer has started.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:08 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Mulcair seems like such a decent man (not "faint praise"!) and that's why I voted for him. Also, his TPP position.

I can't believe the early results have him behind in his riding!
posted by sylvanshine at 7:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Whoa. Mulcair's getting blown out in his riding.

"Blown out" by 41 votes. I wouldn't put much stock in the Outremont numbers yet.
posted by 256 at 7:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


If we see a Liberal sweep in Toronto I will be drinking a Toronto cocktail!
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:10 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Outremont numbers and Mount Royal numbers (two ridings to watch) are still very early, yet.
posted by juliebug at 7:11 PM on October 19, 2015


(Star Wars trailer)
posted by maudlin at 7:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I guess the Liberals did it! HARPER IS GONE!!!
posted by Kevin Street at 7:12 PM on October 19, 2015


(⌒▽⌒)☆
posted by Kevin Street at 7:14 PM on October 19, 2015


Yay, the NDP candidate is winning in my parents' Alberta riding.

with 1 poll reporting
posted by figurant at 7:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Can I still hope the west sweeps orange and thus the Cons don't even get to be the official opposition?
posted by kanata at 7:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


*sorry, that was Enright cracking jokes, earlier.
posted by Kreiger at 7:17 PM on October 19, 2015


I think when they called it for the Liberals, someone at Lib HQ must have brought in a screaming goat, because I'm not sure that was a person.

My husband voted in his first Canadian election today (he recently became a citizen). It was awesome. It's been a long journey, and he missed the last couple of elections (local/provincial) that happened right before he became a citizen, so this was satisfying.

My cousin is building LEGO representations of First-Past-the-Post seat counts vs Proportional Representation for CBC, so let me know if you guys see any LEGO!
posted by ilana at 7:17 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


"THOUGHTFULLY REFLECT" ON THIS, HARPER
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:17 PM on October 19, 2015 [8 favorites]


Libs leading and elected in 170 ridings.
posted by beau jackson at 7:18 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Basically budget votes are make-or-break for Parliament (in the UK and Canada and Australia) and if you can't get your budget passed, your government fails.

Not so much the budget votes, I don't think, but whether or not the senior coalition partner can keep its junior partners supporting it on confidence and supply.
posted by Quilford at 7:18 PM on October 19, 2015


https://i.imgur.com/gyq4tB4.jpg
posted by ~ at 7:19 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


170!!!
posted by grouse at 7:19 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I am so thrilled and also looking forward to all the ways I will be rubbing this in my coworker's faces.
posted by Naib at 7:20 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I wonder if Harper's tight control of his bench is hurting the Conservatives in a not enough name recognition sort of way.
posted by Mitheral at 7:20 PM on October 19, 2015


At this point, I'm now hoping for some icing on my personal cake, and to see my hometown riding, Cariboo-Prince George, go for either NDP or Liberal. Not likely, but it would make me feel all that much better.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 7:20 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Liberal Majority means Legal Weed, right? Asking for a friend.
posted by Fuzzy Monster at 7:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Oh NDP guy you are too optimistic
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 7:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


177.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:22 PM on October 19, 2015


I wish I could be happier about this result, but my gut says we're just serving a different batch of corporate masters now. My only hope is for a minority so the NDP can hold them in check.
posted by rocket88 at 7:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


I hope NDP guy is right about Edmonton. It was NDP or Conservative for quite a few ridings here, so the NDP could pick up some wins.
posted by Kevin Street at 7:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Liberal Majority means Legal Weed, right? Asking for a friend.

One of my friends texted me "Is weed legal yet?" from a family thing about an hour ago.
posted by Kreiger at 7:23 PM on October 19, 2015


apparently, Stephen Harper was seen in a niqab earlier today.
posted by philip-random at 7:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Poor Peter Mansbridge, having to report on a result with a total (a total) of 12 votes reported. "You're kidding me, right?"

National broadcaster, right there.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


Oh man, I really hope the Star runs that on the cover tomorrow, ~.
posted by Sys Rq at 7:24 PM on October 19, 2015


"Are you kidding me? Twelve votes."
... and the giggling in the background
posted by invokeuse at 7:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Liberal Majority means Legal Weed, right? Asking for a friend.

It's really impossible to say what the Liberals will do, despite their promises. I'm not terrible optimistic but it will be an improvement. The only thing I know for sure is that this means that Harper can go fuck himself*.

*excuse my language, I'm just excited.
posted by beau jackson at 7:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Mansbridge when looking at a BC riding: "12 votes? Are you kidding me? Call me when you get some real votes." (I might be paraphrasing, but it was awesome).
posted by cgg at 7:25 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


On one hand anyone but Harper worked (!!!!!). On the other hand I can't help but think of how close Layton came and what might have been. OTOH CBC just said with 7 votes in NDP is leading in my riding! (Even Peter was WTF?). I guess it's time I read what the Libs are about.
posted by kanata at 7:25 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


My only hope is for a minority so the NDP can hold them in check.

177 (elected and leading) is already a comfortable Liberal majority, and we're not even out of Ontario yet.
posted by philip-random at 7:25 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Argh, the CBC dashboard/video has died on me!
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 7:26 PM on October 19, 2015


cgg: ""12 votes? Are you kidding me? Call me when you get some real votes.""

Bet there wasn't a line at that polling station.
posted by Mitheral at 7:26 PM on October 19, 2015


I was impressed that Mansbridge could successfully add together three numbers while talking. I have little faith that many current American newscasters could do so.
posted by benito.strauss at 7:26 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


The Harper Family moving out of 24 Sussex. That would make a great Postmedia reality show.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:26 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


> I wish I could be happier about this result, but my gut says we're just serving a different batch of corporate masters now.

It'll be regular villainy instead of cartoonish supervillainy.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:27 PM on October 19, 2015 [22 favorites]


177 (elected and leading) is already a comfortable Liberal majority, and we're not even out of Ontario yet.

No, that's nationwide. But still!
posted by Sys Rq at 7:27 PM on October 19, 2015


Excess other hands due to now celebratory vodka that is being mixed with OJ so at least I'll see some repeat orange tomorrow...
posted by kanata at 7:27 PM on October 19, 2015


Mulcair back in the lead in his riding, at least.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:27 PM on October 19, 2015


Watching the returns on the contested Calgary ridings wwith interest. Calgary Confederation, my riding, has the Liberal ahead by about 800 votes. Calgary Skyview has the Liberal ahead, but only one poll reporting. And Calgary Centre has the Con ahead and appearing to be growing her lead....which surprises me the most. That one was thought to be the best chance for the Libs here.
posted by nubs at 7:28 PM on October 19, 2015


And the sky has just opened in Toronto. Thunder, too.

(Looks like choosing the clammy embrace of the Fords didn't do the Tories any good in Etobicoke.)
posted by maudlin at 7:28 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Andrew Cash losing in Davenport?
posted by cotton dress sock at 7:30 PM on October 19, 2015


CTV calls Liberal majority
posted by nubs at 7:31 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Only 5 polls counted so far (of 192). I'd wait a bit before panicking.
posted by maudlin at 7:32 PM on October 19, 2015


Shit. Olivia's concession speech in Spadina Fort York. Shit.
posted by maudlin at 7:33 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


That Google thingie is really cool. You can follow the results in your riding as soon as they're posted with Elections Canada.
posted by Kevin Street at 7:33 PM on October 19, 2015


maudlin: "Olivia's concession speech in Spadina Fort York. Shit."

56%-22%. Ouch.
posted by Mitheral at 7:34 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


185 elected & leading

Jays 10 Royals 4
posted by Sys Rq at 7:35 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Sadly, Davenport wasn't a sure thing once the red wave started. It's a historically Liberal riding and tends to swing. See the last provincial election results where Jonah Schein lost to an out of riding rookie.

I'm sad to see Andrew behind in the results; know lots of people who worked on his campaign and he was a really good local politician.
posted by five_cents at 7:36 PM on October 19, 2015


I don't know how I feel tonight. I wanted the Cons gone, but I'm not sure about this result - the Liberals have made a lot of policy decisions I don't like and have their own problematic legacy of arrogance and corruption.

I guess I have a few years of letter writing and phone calls to my MP (assuming Mr. Grant holds his lead here), because there's a lot of damage to undo and a lot of potential damage to prevent.
posted by nubs at 7:36 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Breaking news!
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:36 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


As gleeful as I am that the Tories are probably out, it does hurt to see the NDP lose like this. They deserved better and if we had a better voting system, they would have gotten it.
posted by orange swan at 7:36 PM on October 19, 2015 [8 favorites]


I just wanted to tell you all good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by schmod at 7:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Mansbridge calling Liberal majority: I almost said Pierre Trudeau
posted by ilana at 7:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


CBC calls Liberal majority.
posted by figurant at 7:37 PM on October 19, 2015


CBC calls Liberal majority.
posted by Sys Rq at 7:38 PM on October 19, 2015


Will Harper resign tonight?
posted by five_cents at 7:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


CBC just called the majority. Wow, I wasn't expecting that.
posted by quaking fajita at 7:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


"The Liberal government of Pie -- I almost just said Pierre Trudeau -- Justin Trudeau will have a majority."

10:37
posted by jeather at 7:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


SUPERJINX
posted by Sys Rq at 7:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Prime Minister Trudeau.
posted by Kevin Street at 7:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Wwwwwwwwoooooooooooooooooo
posted by zenon at 7:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Breaking news! Deploying the Fuck Harper gin!
posted by Kreiger at 7:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


And I hope we don't hear a bunch about "Trudeau mania"; to me this is more about "Harper exhaustion"
posted by nubs at 7:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


All hair our new leader!
posted by mannequito at 7:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


nubs & orange swan - I feel similarly. And I'm a lifelong Liberal. I just... I was expecting and happy at the prospect of a Liberal minority. Don't really like that they won't have the checks and balances I was hoping they would. Kind of bummed, despite being also ecstatic that the Conservatives will be out. Very weird.
posted by juliebug at 7:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


quoting my mom, liberal amounts of wine will now be drank.
posted by philip-random at 7:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


This election is the stuff of legend. Harper, whose life's mission has been to destroy the legacy of Pierre Trudeau, is beaten - obliterated! - by Trudeau's son. Wow. My faith in Canada has returned.
posted by Flashman at 7:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [36 favorites]


I've never been happier that my riding had no effect on the outcome. I should have voted Green.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:39 PM on October 19, 2015


Congrats, neighbors to the North!
posted by TwoStride at 7:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


FUCK YEAH GREENS ON THE BOARD
posted by Quilford at 7:41 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


"Mes chers amis. Welcome to the 1980s."
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Welp that's basically what I've been waiting for all afternoon, time to bow out haha
posted by Quilford at 7:43 PM on October 19, 2015


Soooo what happens now? How long does it take for Harper to resign and for Trudeau to be invited to form a government?
posted by grouse at 7:43 PM on October 19, 2015


Craig Scott is losing! In JACK LAYTON'S RIDING.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


"Prime Minister Trudeau." Wow.

(My earliest Trudeau memory: joining my family in the living room in the spring of 1968 as everyone watched the massive black and white tv on a Saturday night. There was a political contest of some sort and "we" were supporting somebody named Trudeau over somebody named Winters. Young nerd that I was, I found this as fascinating as the Olympics and cheered when our guy won. As much as I have been lukewarm, at best, about Trudeau the Younger, and as much as I hate the naked politicking behind choices such as C-51, Bill Blair and Eve Adams, I am feeling a tiny echo of that adrenaline tonight.)
posted by maudlin at 7:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Here in Toronto, sad to see Bill Blair win a seat and Olivia and Rathika lose.
posted by beau jackson at 7:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Yay, this is so great, congratulations Canada!!!!

Metafilter: The Liberal government of Pie
posted by riverlife at 7:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


CBC pointing out the low accuracy of polls. The latest pre election had a 7% Lib-Con spread and it's looking more like 14% in actual polling.
posted by Mitheral at 7:45 PM on October 19, 2015


I have a podcast I do where I interview people on various historical subjects. The most recent one I did was a sort of broad overview of Canadian history and the growth of a common Canadian identity. My guest made the point that, more than anything else, the modern Canada we know is really "Trudeau's Canada."

He was referring to pere, but it seems fils is is going to have his chance as well.
posted by Panjandrum at 7:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


May they govern wisely and realise that dissatisfaction with Harper is not a popular mandate.

That said, for tonight and for all time, FUCK HARPER for what you did to my adopted country.
posted by arcticseal at 7:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


So Canada didn't so much have shy Tories as shy Liberals?

That's oddly heartening.
posted by Grimgrin at 7:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Years ago, in a fit of pique after Harper was re-elected, I wrote a blog post tartly entitled 'Fuck You Canada'. Hey, I was angry. Sorry about that.

Now finally -- finally! -- Canada can start to move on. I truly wish the NDP had done better, but at least we're rid of Harper and the Conservatives. It's a start, and it's about time.

I never stopped loving you, Canada, but today I'm also prouder of you than I have been in a long time.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 7:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Enjoying my Toronto Cocktail. Looking forward to a certain someone's resignation.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


How long does it take for Harper to resign and for Trudeau to be invited to form a government?
Harper said that he would resign the second his party didn't win. So I assume he and his G.G. are going to try and hold on to power for the next couple months.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


Yeah, Bill Blair shouldn't be anywhere near the levers of power after the G20.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


I read somewhere today that the pollsters would not be off base again, this time around.

Hah! A defeat for Harper (buh bye) AND another reminder that there's only ONE poll that counts, and we're watching it.

(I hate polling and people's faith in them, btw)

Re Bill Blair... I don't think he was calling the shots in the G20 fiasco.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:48 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Craig Scott is losing! In JACK LAYTON'S RIDING.

We're sitting in friends' living room in this very riding (we used to live in this neighbourhood as well), and everyone is VERY surprised.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:49 PM on October 19, 2015


Woah, Tulowitzki has just been ejected from the election.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 7:49 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Any word on how many people voted?
posted by kanata at 7:50 PM on October 19, 2015


[Couple comments deleted; please skip the 'c' word; let's not besmirch this beautiful time we have together.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:52 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


CBC's site just declared Chris Alexander to be toast! Many of Harper's cabinet members were dissembling and dishonest, but Alexander's lies caused me the most personal anxiety and stress. So good riddance to bad rubbish.

Mr. Alexander: I wish you the worst of luck in your future endeavours, and may you one day know what it's like to have your future determined through an opaque process run by an incompetent ass.
posted by Banknote of the year at 7:53 PM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


Wow, Duceppe's now in THIRD. Only 30 of 230 polls.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 7:54 PM on October 19, 2015


Peter Mansbridge just beating up on Dmitri here
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 7:54 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


So I knew and worked with Justin way back when and I have to say that it's bit surreal him being Prime Minister. Kinda a worlds colliding sorta thing.

It's cool though. No real comments about his political career but pre politics Justin was a good guy and decent human being who generally gave a shit about people and things so I wish him well.
posted by Jalliah at 7:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [19 favorites]


Chris Alexander was the worst. A terrible minister. Good riddance.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Yeah, but Bill Blair is in, in my riding. Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck.

Tragically, yes.
posted by Kreiger at 7:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Nothing from Harper yet.
posted by jeather at 7:58 PM on October 19, 2015


How do our polling companies suck so bad?

Anyways thank god Harper is gone. Looking forward to seeing his speech, curious to see what he looks like with emotions. I think we just took away the one thing he cares about: power.

But I have some concerns about handing a majority to a young rich guy born into Canadian royalty. I appear to be in a minority in this country again.
posted by Hoopo at 7:58 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Disappointed that NDP is not doing better, but hey, the Liberals aren't so bad! Trudeau would probably do fine.

So I knew and worked with Justin way back when and I have to say that it's bit surreal him being Prime Minister. Kinda a worlds colliding sorta thing.

He taught French at my high school for a year, once upon a time. My brief encounter with celebrity...
posted by tickingclock at 7:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I expect Harper to come out brandishing a pistol and holding the GG hostage.
posted by figurant at 7:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I died reading this. Canadians Fed Up with The Niqab debate turn out to vote in masks -- and a pumpkin.
posted by Jalliah at 8:00 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


(cracks open cider)
posted by tickingclock at 8:00 PM on October 19, 2015


From what I've heard on the streets, those close to Chris Alexander thing he's a great person and are baffled at what he's become. Seems like maybe he let himself get twisted up into a bad situation. Still it's his fault and the loss is appropriate. Let's start being decent to newcomers and refugees in this country.
posted by beau jackson at 8:00 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Well done, Canada!
posted by RakDaddy at 8:01 PM on October 19, 2015


Looking at the map of completed ridings a rough estimate;
Newfoundland about 60% turnout
Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are around 70%
P.E.I looks to be nearly 80% turnout
posted by phoque at 8:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Well, the Globe and Mail is going to get half of what they hoped for.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:05 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


CBC: "Tom Mulcair was more like Steven Harper than Jack Layton."
posted by i_have_a_computer at 8:05 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


I vote Orange but support Red this year as an ABC voter, and the only thing I wish is that is was Shelly Fucking Glover going down to crushing defeat.
posted by WinnipegDragon at 8:06 PM on October 19, 2015


Unicorns, Rainbows and Legal Weed
posted by Flashman at 8:06 PM on October 19, 2015


We're not the frightened, petty creatures he thought we were. I'm glad he's out, but that's what I'm celebrating.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:07 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


lol bc
posted by tickingclock at 8:07 PM on October 19, 2015


I had the very lucky opportunity to take a job in Montreal a couple years ago and spent a year and a half there before the job evaporated. My visa was tied to the job and other job opportunities pretty much required a visa that wasn't tied to the job - so staying wasn't really an option.

In that year and a half I grew to really love Montreal and Quebec and Canada. So this election makes me all happy.

Go Canada! (and the Jays too!)
posted by Death and Gravity at 8:07 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I want to ask that everyone in a Liberal riding remember how badly we wanted election reform prior to tonight, and not to be too elated by tonight's victories to forget that desire tomorrow.

Please take the time to write - yes, physically write! - to your new and returning MPs tomorrow and in the coming days to remind them of how badly we need election reform to ensure that Canadians wishes continue to be properly respected going forward.
posted by Imperfect at 8:08 PM on October 19, 2015 [16 favorites]


Yeah, Bill Blair shouldn't be anywhere near the levers of power after the G20.

Re Bill Blair... I don't think he was calling the shots in the G20 fiasco.


I'm not sure what to think of Bill Blair. Ultimately, the G20 fiasco was Harper's fault, but I'm suspicious of Bill Blair's role in the behaviour of the police. I applaud Blair for launching an investigation into Rob Ford's alleged narcotics trafficking, but I'm disappointed that Blair wasn't able to throw Ford's pasty fat ass into jail.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 8:08 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm bummed that Craig Scott is losing (by 800 now). I have a lot of issues with the party, but he's been a great MP.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:08 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Couple comments deleted; please skip the 'c' word

Oh, come on. We're all glad the Conservatives are out, sure, but suggesting that we never again use the word "conservative" is just going too far.
posted by sfenders at 8:09 PM on October 19, 2015 [25 favorites]


Been interesting watching the polls come in in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo. The early polls were probably the smaller rural stations and the Conservatives jumped out to nearly 50%. However 75% of the population lives in Kamloops proper and the Conservative candidate is down to 40% with 50/275 polls reporting in.
posted by Mitheral at 8:09 PM on October 19, 2015


A lot of great NDP MPs lost as collateral damage to strategic voting. I'm gutted that Megan Leslie won't be around anymore.
posted by Flashman at 8:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


Mulcair's out front in Outremont.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


11 - 4 Jays, top of the 9th. Oh my.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 8:12 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Yup, NDP suffered from severe ABC feeling. Could have been the Liberals if the NDP were in the lead. And yeah, the best (most connected with the community, most compassionate, most reasonable) MPs from the cities I know- Toronto and Halifax, were NDP. Way she goes.
posted by beau jackson at 8:13 PM on October 19, 2015


Arch-lich Tommy Douglas will emerge from his crypt some day. he will emerge. and finish the work he began.

That said, though, good job getting rid of Harper, y'all. Yay Canada!
posted by You Can't Tip a Buick at 8:13 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


It makes absolutely no sense to me that Alberta is still "all blue"* given the provincial election. (Which I did read as a super-protest vote based on not-from-my-wallet tax/budget whining, but still.) I spent a lot of time giving props to my NDP candidate (who showed up at my door and impressed me) because I thought there might be some interesting action in Alberta, but alluvasudden it's back to blue? I mean, people here are no less pissed off at Harper and the senate shit and so on and so on. I guess I just don't understand.

(*not literally all)
posted by sylvanshine at 8:13 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


There are two red seats in Calgary right now, and at least one in Edmonton.
posted by WinnipegDragon at 8:14 PM on October 19, 2015


Liz May leads 2134 to 821 to 648 in her riding woo
posted by Quilford at 8:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Also 189 right now. Wow. I think the *max* predicted was 172.
posted by WinnipegDragon at 8:15 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Crazy when you consider some forums, like on reddit, where people were convinced there would be a "shy tory" effect.
posted by beau jackson at 8:16 PM on October 19, 2015


Murray Rankin (NDP) seems to be winning handily in Victoria - the Greens were supposed to put up a tough fight.
posted by Nevin at 8:16 PM on October 19, 2015


There are two red seats in Calgary right now, and at least one in Edmonton.

One seat in Edmonton has been called for the NDP
posted by 256 at 8:16 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


ottguy seems to have done a solid job of predicting the results, although his Liberal count is under their current leading-and-won number, as even he didn't forecast how much of the NDP vote would go Liberal.
Predictions are a difficult and risky business. Thankfully we have some data to back up election predictions and, at least at the federal level, the polls have been relatively accurate over the last few elections.

Sure you can argue that the Conservative support was lowballed in the last two federal elections. One could also argue that the front-runner and party with momentum had its support in the last two federal elections lowballed - three if you include the last Ontario election.

It is my opinion that the Liberals are entering election day with the momentum.

I am predicting a Liberal majority government.
posted by maudlin at 8:17 PM on October 19, 2015


Almost 190 seats for the Liberals at this point! Eric Grenier picked the trend roughly right, but nowhere near the magnitude. I hope this marks the end of daily poll forecasting in Canada, at least until we generate as much poll data as the US.
posted by Popular Ethics at 8:18 PM on October 19, 2015


2 runs in the top of the 9th for the Royals...
posted by WinnipegDragon at 8:18 PM on October 19, 2015


I am at this very minute happily scarfing down a personal pizza with bacon on it and listening to Mitsou's très à propos "By Bye Mon Cowboy".
posted by orange swan at 8:18 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


In regard to Alberta being almost solid blue, I've been following my Edmonton riding practically minute by minute (Thanks Google!) and the story all night has been the PCs in the lead, with the NDP and Liberals tied for second place with a combined 50% or so of the vote. One or the other could beat the PCs, but together they've split the left vote right down the middle. It isn't over yet, but it looks like Kerry Diotte will win.
posted by Kevin Street at 8:19 PM on October 19, 2015


Fuck, Calgary Confed is going Blue. Fuck fuck fuck.
posted by nubs at 8:19 PM on October 19, 2015


With respect, it's not the PCs - the Progressive Conservatives. Harper did away with the progressive part. This is the Conservative Party of Canada.
posted by beau jackson at 8:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Jays win!
posted by ilana at 8:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


CTV declares Joe Oliver defeated in Eglinton-Lawrence
posted by nubs at 8:22 PM on October 19, 2015 [14 favorites]


Right, sorry. Reflex. I'm used to PCs winning everything. It's just the C's now.
posted by Kevin Street at 8:22 PM on October 19, 2015


First thing Trudeau should do is change the voting system to preferential voting and make sure a Tory can't ever split the vote again. It'll probably lock the Tories out of power for a generation but fuck it, two thirds of Canada consistently votes anything but a fucking Tory.
posted by Talez at 8:22 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Ultimately, the G20 fiasco was Harper's fault, but I'm suspicious of Bill Blair's role in the behaviour of the police.

As I recall, the Toronto police was supplemented by police from OPP, RCMP and other forces. It was an overtime boondoggle for police, getting triple-time, per-diems, swank hotels, expenses etc.

I believe there were senior RCMP and CSIS in charge of directing the security during the G20, and you know who their direct report was. I don't know how much actual control Blair would have had at that time. Obviously he's not totally blameless.

I applaud Blair for launching an investigation into Rob Ford's alleged narcotics trafficking, but I'm disappointed that Blair wasn't able to throw Ford's pasty fat ass into jail.

Just politics and optics. I recall that during Ford-related press conferences, Blair looked like he was about to eat a turd. If he didn't have a basket of smoking guns and credible witnesses, prosecuting Ford would have been a shitshow.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:22 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm not sure what to think of Bill Blair. Ultimately, the G20 fiasco was Harper's fault, but I'm suspicious of Bill Blair's role in the behaviour of the police. I applaud Blair for launching an investigation into Rob Ford's alleged narcotics trafficking, but I'm disappointed that Blair wasn't able to throw Ford's pasty fat ass into jail.

Not Harper or Fantino is a low bar, but I take your points. At least there'll be a good deal less pandering to the Fords by the feds, now, hopefully.
posted by Kreiger at 8:23 PM on October 19, 2015


There must have been some serious The Wire-style shit going on behind the scenes during the Rob Ford Crack Tape days.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


It makes absolutely no sense to me that Alberta is still "all blue" given the provincial election
The Alberta provincial election was a split between the long ruling Progressive Conservative party and the upstart radical conservative "Wild Rose" Party. The NDP just waltzed up the middle unopposed for the win as they're the only provincial left-of-center party.

Federally, the Conservative Party has no competition in rural Alberta, and little completion in urban Alberta because of three-way vote splitting between NDP, Liberal, and Green.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 8:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Oh wait, preferential voting is plank 31 for the Liberals. Fuck yeah come on, Canada!
posted by Talez at 8:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


I'm a big fan of the c-word, especially in political discussions, but I'm an even bigger fan of hearing less from the C-words in the next few years.
posted by Kreiger at 8:26 PM on October 19, 2015


That big chunk of northern Saskatchewan that recently turned red on the map is a visually satisfying reduction in prairie blueness.
posted by sfenders at 8:27 PM on October 19, 2015


Sure wishing I'd voted my gut instead what the strategic recommendations said. Dumb. Now the climate-change-denying idiot is in. Dammit.
posted by five fresh fish at 8:27 PM on October 19, 2015


The Royals tried to come storming back in the 9th - they got 4 in but it wasn't enough. Final 11-8 Jays. All the folks that left the stands early to try and beat the traffic must be kicking themselves, what an inning.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 8:29 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Mulcair's and Duceppe's ridings still too close to call..
posted by 256 at 8:29 PM on October 19, 2015


Calgary could actually get a Liberal MP in Skyview.
posted by arcticseal at 8:29 PM on October 19, 2015


Liberals only 21 seats away from a majority! Could it happen?
posted by tickingclock at 8:31 PM on October 19, 2015


Mulcair speech now on CBC.
posted by maudlin at 8:31 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


It was fun to share this evening with y'all.

If I had brains I would have run out this morning to short the Canadian dollar ;-)
posted by Artful Codger at 8:32 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


CTV calls Outremont for Mulcair.

Duceppe still down by nearly 900 votes, 84/230 polls reporting.
posted by juliebug at 8:34 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Mulcair obviously just stopped crying and will start again as soon as he is off stage.
posted by jeather at 8:34 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Mulcair is smiling too much in this speech. Creeping me out.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 8:35 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Harper defeated by the son of the man he hates most passionately in life, the man that drove him to politics to begin with.

Muuuuhahaha.

And Calandra, out. Good riddance, asshole. And Alexander, Immigration Minister and child-killer, out. Shit's being flushed down the drain.
posted by five fresh fish at 8:36 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Seriously, any portmanteau in a storm. I had to turn it off.
posted by tickingclock at 8:36 PM on October 19, 2015


I'm not hearing a Mulcair resignation here. It's perfectly honorable to continue as an MP, but the thing to do is to step down as leader, even if it's just to run in the leadership selection.
posted by figurant at 8:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Tom you don't know how to smile stop trying
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 8:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I like him. I haven't seen much of him because it's just been too depressing to follow the campaign (thank goodness my pessimism was unfounded), but he seems good and sincere and that's just about enough for me in these times of the shitleopards.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 8:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I went from having Thomas Mulcair as an MP to an Alberta conservative who has the second highest expense bill in Canada, refused to show up for 2 out of 3 debates and sends the most condescending mail drops ever. He's leading with 62% of the vote even though my whole town and the next one over voted against him. Oh well, at least his party got put in their place.
posted by furtive at 8:38 PM on October 19, 2015


I think he's just happy to see Harper out on his ass.
posted by Talez at 8:38 PM on October 19, 2015


Does anybody have a list of ministers who've lost their seats? Alexander and Moore I see so far.
posted by junco at 8:39 PM on October 19, 2015


Mulcair is an awesome parliamentarian but he had a lousy campaign and he hasn't been the best NDP leader.
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Mulcair is great. He just needs to stop smiling. I would have been happy with an angry PM.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 8:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


The only thing left for me here tonight is Harper's concession speech. Fucker better keep his promise to resign.
posted by nubs at 8:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


junco: Go the CBC's dashboard, click on Candidates to Watch, then Cabinet Ministers.
posted by Banknote of the year at 8:41 PM on October 19, 2015


Man, the NDP got annhilitated.
posted by Nevin at 8:42 PM on October 19, 2015


Joe Oliver, gone! Ha! Asshole. Fantano, outta there! Asshole.

I am so relieved that so many Canadians had enough of this.
posted by five fresh fish at 8:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


My main regret is that I've run out of hard liquor before the Harper speech.

Still have beer though!
posted by figurant at 8:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


The only thing left for me here tonight is Harper's concession speech. Fucker better keep his promise to resign.

I'd love to see Harper as Opposition leader, pining for the trappings of power, passing out drunk on the steps of 24 Sussex every few weeks.
posted by Kreiger at 8:44 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I am exhausted, but I really want to hear from Harper.
posted by jeather at 8:44 PM on October 19, 2015


The NDP deserved better. That's tough.
posted by mazola at 8:45 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


Harper resigning is the last time I ever want to see his awful, smug, arrogant face.
posted by Poldo at 8:45 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


And yay Elizabeth May!
posted by mazola at 8:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


CBC saying Harper has already said he'll be resigning in his speech.
posted by Mitheral at 8:46 PM on October 19, 2015


> From what I've heard on the streets, those close to Chris Alexander thing he's a great person and are baffled at what he's become. Seems like maybe he let himself get twisted up into a bad situation.

The fish rots from the head down.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:46 PM on October 19, 2015


The NDP deserved better. That's tough.

Wait till the Liberals get through with PR and IRV.

The conservatives are going to get annihilated on the back of an NDP and Greens picking up seats.
posted by Talez at 8:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Man, the NDP got annhilitated.

Voters must have figured out that the NDP and CPC were basically the same party. ; )
posted by Flashman at 8:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


CBC and other sources are claiming that Harper will resign tonight.

Make some more tea, folks.
posted by maudlin at 8:47 PM on October 19, 2015


Stephen Harper stepping down as leader.
posted by mazola at 8:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


OMG Joe Oliver gone!!?? oh be still my heart, I didn't think it could get any better. He hasn't been the Finance Minister we needed.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 8:47 PM on October 19, 2015


Mulcair is smiling too much in this speech. Creeping me out.

To be fair, the timing of his speech meant Rex Murphy got cut the fuck off. Praise be.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


CTV just got copied in on a message from Harper instructing the party to appoint an interim leader and prepare for a leadership selection process.
posted by nubs at 8:47 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Oh, it's only just sunk in that we don't have to deal with another fucking election in 6 months. Thank christ.
posted by figurant at 8:48 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I for one welcome our new Liberal overlords.
posted by dougzilla at 8:50 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


NDP fucked this up bad. The NDP took gains made by a charismatic leader and put a guy at the helm with no charisma who moved even further right against a guy with all the charisma in the world and a famous name, who occupied the same ideological space the NDP put themselves in while abandoning their roots.

My boy Dewar is out. That was my hope for this party. This is going to be a long rebuild. They better fucking move back left.
posted by Hoopo at 8:50 PM on October 19, 2015 [14 favorites]


> I am at this very minute happily scarfing down a personal pizza with bacon on it and listening to Mitsou's très à propos "By Bye Mon Cowboy".

Well now I am doing the latter too, which I have never done before. Merci encore, Canada.
posted by benito.strauss at 8:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Oh boy, here it comes.
posted by figurant at 8:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Anyways Justin, about that weed. I'd really appreciate it about now
posted by Hoopo at 8:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


It's killing me! I need a non-Flash source for Harper's concession!!
posted by five fresh fish at 8:52 PM on October 19, 2015


Oh God, that music.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:52 PM on October 19, 2015


Goodbye harperbot!!!
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:53 PM on October 19, 2015


CTV just said that Duceppe lost before they had to go to Harper
posted by nubs at 8:53 PM on October 19, 2015


g'bye harper! smell ya later!
posted by mazola at 8:53 PM on October 19, 2015


Le denouement commence...
posted by Flashman at 8:53 PM on October 19, 2015


Is there closed captioning on the CBC stream? I could watch him for a few minutes, but his voice is the worst.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:53 PM on October 19, 2015


Nice hair, Stephen.
posted by nubs at 8:54 PM on October 19, 2015


I don't want to be addressed by him. Ugh.
posted by jeather at 8:54 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


OMFG. I agree Mulcair's smile was creepy, but Harper's smile is even creepier.
posted by tickingclock at 8:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


He's still giving his stump speech
posted by Flashman at 8:55 PM on October 19, 2015


Money management tips. Excellent.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 8:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


With respect, it's not the PCs

There is, oddly, a PC party. It is headed by Sinclair Stevens, a one-time Mulroney cabinet minister whose axe-grindiness can be estimated by a press release he sent out endorsing Trudeau.

Harper is speaking and he is STILL campaigning while conceding.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


How sweet it is! Bye Bye Stephen and good riddance.
posted by dougzilla at 8:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


"We believe that the government should manage Canadians' money like they manage their own"

....badly?
posted by quaking fajita at 8:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Not my prime minister, you steam-hammered cake of rancid dogshit.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 8:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


Oh, Laureen. I know someone who knows someone who knows someone who says they split ages ago and that he pays her to show up at things.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


It's creeping me out how much Harper's speech voice sounds identical to Stuart Mclean's wholesome story telling voice.

Pretty well written though /begrudging.
posted by Popular Ethics at 8:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


"We remain citizens of the best country on earth" because we haven't lost our citizenship due to my crappy bill.
posted by jeather at 8:56 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


"Tonight's result is certainly not the one that we hoped for..." --Harper

LOL
posted by tickingclock at 8:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Why is your French so bad agggg
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 8:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Harper holding dildos may help us through this speech.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:57 PM on October 19, 2015


NDP fucked this up bad. The NDP took gains made by a charismatic leader and put a guy at the helm with no charisma who moved even further right against a guy with all the charisma in the world and a famous name, who occupied the same ideological space the NDP put themselves in while abandoning their roots.

Their embrace of strategic voting in the early days of the campaign is what did them in. Bit them in the ass.

However, I think Mulcair is an honorable man. He did the right thing with the issue of the niqab and the party paid the price for it.
posted by Nevin at 8:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [8 favorites]


FFF, CBC radio is streaming it.
posted by Kreiger at 8:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


It's a pretty good speech, really. Who could sound that upbeat? Perhaps he's known for a long time, months perhaps, that this was coming?
posted by Flashman at 8:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


That's not very nice, blaming his family for nearly destroying Canada.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 8:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Eat shit, Harper. Let science and compassion lead our nation.
posted by five fresh fish at 8:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Oh god h said the word love
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 8:59 PM on October 19, 2015


It's a pretty gracious speech. It's more than I expected.
posted by figurant at 9:00 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Here it comes.
posted by mazola at 9:00 PM on October 19, 2015


figurant, he's used to lying through his teeth.
posted by tickingclock at 9:00 PM on October 19, 2015


Gracious speech, except the con talking points. Still waiting for that resignation. Wtf is he wrapping up?
posted by beau jackson at 9:01 PM on October 19, 2015


I guess not.
posted by mazola at 9:01 PM on October 19, 2015


"Canada is safe, and more united than ever..." in opposition to my leadership.
posted by Banknote of the year at 9:01 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


OH I WANT TO PUNCH MY LAPTOP BUT WORK WILL MAKE ME PAY FOR IT

Go away, Stephen. Go away.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 9:01 PM on October 19, 2015


So.....he didn't resign?
posted by quaking fajita at 9:02 PM on October 19, 2015


Why, when all other parties have their logo as the backdrop, does he have the temerity to have "Canada" as his?

My money's on plan B. Also:

HE DID NOT HAVE THE GUTS TO RESIGN PUBLICLY.

YOU SNIVELLING COWARD. GO HIDE IN THAT CLOSET IN CENTRE BLOCK AGAIN.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:02 PM on October 19, 2015


OMFG he didn't resign in the end. Not yet, anyway.
posted by tickingclock at 9:02 PM on October 19, 2015


No announcement, but party put statement out. That way I guess Harper didnt even have to say the words, the fuck.
posted by nubs at 9:02 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


OMG! I HAVE AN MP THAT BELIEVES IN EVOLUTION! THAT ACTUALLY CAMPAIGNED IN MY TOWN! AND SHOWED UP FOR DEBATES AND STUFF! /swoons in a newly elected NDP haze
posted by kanata at 9:02 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


What a piece of shit this man is. Cynical and calculating, even in defeat. And too cowardly to resign in front of the country and the world.
posted by Poldo at 9:02 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Where's my resignation?

I was promised a resignation.
posted by juliebug at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


STRONG
STABLE
MAJORITY

posted by The Card Cheat at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


No announcement, but party put statement out. That way I guess Harper didnt even have to say the words, the fuck.

Ah, okay. Makes sense.
posted by tickingclock at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015


He did the right thing with the issue of the niqab and the party paid the price for it.

This was bigger than the niqab
posted by Hoopo at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


figurant, he's used to lying through his teeth.

Hey, I expected him to threaten to detonate a dirty bomb over Ottawa. My standards are low.
posted by figurant at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Out as leader. And out of the auditorium at best speed.

Bye
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015


Harper you owe us a resignation. What a coward.
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Does Harper know he resigned?
posted by mazola at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [11 favorites]


And that's the last we'll ever see of him.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:03 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


did he ever say trudeau's name?
posted by Hoopo at 9:04 PM on October 19, 2015


He did say "Prime Minister Trudeau" at one point, and I think the smile switched off for a second. Not sure, though.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:06 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Yes. He said 'Mr. Trudeau'.
posted by mazola at 9:06 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Good night, y'all. I'm so glad none of my pre-election freakouts and pronouncements of doom turned out to be warranted or accurate. Here's to a better Canada!
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:10 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Looking at the CBC map, I'm happy to see BC as orange and red as it is. Some of the Conservative wins were actually squeakers, too, so: good result.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 9:11 PM on October 19, 2015


Super excited! Watching the results with a bunch of other Canadian ex-pats and we're finally optimistic about getting jobs as scientists in Canada again.
posted by hydrobatidae at 9:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [19 favorites]


Andrew Coyne using his second baseball analogy. It's easy to see where his mind is.

Chantal Hebert reveals herself to be the last person who uses a Blackberry.
posted by beau jackson at 9:11 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Oh here's Justin
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 9:11 PM on October 19, 2015


All things considered, the whole evening feels sort of anticlimactic. I was expecting an ending like that of the Downfall or something like that.
posted by dougzilla at 9:12 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Sunny ways?
posted by mazola at 9:13 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


If I don't wake up to a Harper On Election Night Downfall parody tomorrow morning, I will be very disappointed with the internet.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [8 favorites]


Here's a good hate read (but without looking at the URL can you guess if it's Blatchford or Wente?):

But really, his chief sins were that he didn’t believe in all those things that make so many Canadian hearts beat faster – bigger and more intrusive government, obeisance to the bureaucracy, peacekeeping over soldiering, moral equivalence in foreign policy.
posted by Nevin at 9:14 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Gotta be Blatchford.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:15 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


That's majority!
posted by tickingclock at 9:15 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Sunny ways?

Laurier reference.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 9:15 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Sounds like someone's angling to replace Coyne on the editorial board.
posted by figurant at 9:16 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Sunny ways?

He says odd things sometimes. Let's hope he doesn't shoot off about e.g. how efficient Chinese dictatorship is.
posted by cotton dress sock at 9:16 PM on October 19, 2015


*fist pump*
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:16 PM on October 19, 2015


Laurier reference.

Oh, ok. Whew.
posted by cotton dress sock at 9:17 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Hehe, he said Butts.
posted by figurant at 9:17 PM on October 19, 2015


Hmm, good to once again have a prime minister who sounds comfortable speaking french. And english, as well.
posted by sfenders at 9:19 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


Going to take me a while to get used to a Prime Minister who appears capable of expressing emotion with his facial expressions.
posted by nubs at 9:21 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Good on Justin (it's hard for me to call him Trudeau -- that's always going to be his dad for me) for explicitly and repeatedly taking the high road and clearly signalling a deliberate turning away from the negativity of the way Canadian politics has been pushed by the Conservatives in the past decade.

It's easy to be gracious in victory, but still: it's good to hear that kind of talk.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 9:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


I am going to miss the Harper tries to look relatable while holding a cat or wearing a sweater memes tho.
posted by kanata at 9:23 PM on October 19, 2015 [8 favorites]


Dammit, missing Trudeau's speech as Mrs. A. is sleeping now.

Best line from Harper's speech - "we elected a strong opposition". That's saying we win at losing! Now fuck off.

So Harper's brother works for my company, he's actually a really nice chap and a delight to work with. I just saw him in TV, it's quite easy to tell them apart, he's the one with a job.
posted by arcticseal at 9:24 PM on October 19, 2015 [23 favorites]


I made history tonight! 8)
posted by mazola at 9:26 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


....and that's 170, which makes it bedtime here. Ten years of Harper whilst I was away, and the first election after I move back, we get it right(-ish). I take full blame and credit.

Britons, take note: this is what you do with shitheel right-wing ideologues.
posted by Kreiger at 9:26 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Calgary Centre is going to go down to the wire from the looks of it. I'm going to have to read about it in the morning I guess; pretty much time to head to bed.

Justin is really striking a different tone from the past ten years; I hope it is not just window dressing.
posted by nubs at 9:28 PM on October 19, 2015


No JT stop saying PM
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 9:29 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Congrats, Canadian Mefites. I'm drinking one of them fancy Toronto cocktails in solidarity.
posted by ghharr at 9:30 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


His French is okay.
posted by furtive at 9:31 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


His English is okay.
posted by mazola at 9:32 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


OK, time to sleep. Yaaaaaay! (waves tiny little Canada flags)
posted by tickingclock at 9:33 PM on October 19, 2015


But his eyebrows are magnificent.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 9:33 PM on October 19, 2015 [9 favorites]


Aww... the Trudeaus are so cute!
posted by mazola at 9:36 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Great speech. I'm very happy, and hopeful.

Like I said to our American friends on this very site after Obama was elected 7 years back, this is the beginning, not the end. We need to hold his feet to the fire, make sure his government delivers on his fine words, but: it's a new day dawning, perhaps, after a long long night.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 9:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [20 favorites]


That was a nice, inclusive speech. I like Justin Trudeau so far.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


This American says, great job, Canada! May you continue to be an example of how to do things better.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:38 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Kanata, you are in Courtney—Alberni, right? Your new MP was my boss for two years or so almost a decade ago. He is a great guy. The kind of guy who still wishes me a happy birthday to this day and I know he will be a tireless advocate for both his constituents and the environment, among other important things.
posted by [expletive deleted] at 9:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


That was a nice, inclusive speech. I like Justin Trudeau so far.

But nothing about where the brothels are going and when the corner store is getting weed. I'm disappointed.
posted by mazola at 9:40 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Joe Clark! :)
posted by mazola at 9:41 PM on October 19, 2015 [3 favorites]


Kanata, you are in Courtney—Alberni, right

So good to see John Duncan lose his seat. Just an awful aboriginal affairs minister.
posted by Nevin at 9:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Yay, Joe!
posted by figurant at 9:42 PM on October 19, 2015


Holy shit. Craig on CTV:

"I know people think we should say kind things about Harper tongiht. But he was caught lying, he was caught cheating -"

someone's studio mike before it got cut "Jesus"

"- he promoted intolerance and" I can't recall the rest but he teed off on Harper but good, and then said his job and the job of the media now is to hold Trudeau to the ideals he just spoke about.
posted by nubs at 9:43 PM on October 19, 2015 [23 favorites]


Yeah, Gord Johns. Everything I've heard of him is he's a good guy and he was out on a very grass roots level in Alberni. I'm not thrilled with a Liberal government but glad to be back under the orange where I feel like I might actually be considered human despite being on disability and presenting as female.
posted by kanata at 9:45 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I got all of this news while having a delicious Peruvian-Japanese dinner in Lima, surrounded by my family, all of us checking in on the election and the Jays. It has been a good night. Extra sake was guzzled by yours truly.
posted by LMGM at 9:46 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


I know I said I was going to bed, but my sister just woke me up with a text saying she's giving me a framed copy of this picture for Christmas. She's the best.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:49 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


I know I said I was going to bed, but my sister just woke me up with a text saying she's giving me a framed copy of this picture for Christmas. She's the best.

That picture was Harper's concession speech.
posted by mazola at 9:52 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


Holy shit. Craig on CTV:

"I know people think we should say kind things about Harper tongiht. But he was caught lying, he was caught cheating -"

someone's studio mike before it got cut "Jesus"

"- he promoted intolerance and" I can't recall the rest but he teed off on Harper but good, and then said his job and the job of the media now is to hold Trudeau to the ideals he just spoke about.



"You know, I listened to him very carefully... Think of the words he laid out for himself, he was obviously inviting us to compare him with Mr. Harper. Integrity, trust, openness, tolerance, truthfulness. I have to say that Mr. Harper promised all of these words himself and basically lived up to none of them. I know that many of you may feel that this is the night we should say nice things about Mr. Harper, but he was caught lying, he was caught cheating -"

"Jesus!"

"He showed, toward the end, incredible intolerance to Canadians who are Arabs and Muslims, which many will find always unforgivable. The whole idea of a tip line--listen to your parents and to your neighbours--and report on [barbaric cultural] practices you might [observe], and call the mounties who wanted nothing to do with all of this."


He goes on for a while but yeah, pretty funny.
posted by mantecol at 9:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [16 favorites]


Just got home from working the polls in our riding. Quite an experience. Really busy all day with a slight lull after lunch for about 2 hours.
The ID thing: we have to prove 1) who you are 2) where you live; so we loved people with a driver's licence, because it covered everything and we could cross you right off if you were on the registered list. If you had health card or passport or something like that, you needed an extra piece of id with your name and address PRINTED on it, not handwritten (so a phone bill, personal cheque....pretty long list of stuff you could use.)

I have to say I was always surprised how some people got grouchy when they had to wait for more than 10 minutes or so. People are literally dying to be able to vote in other places.
Mostly people were awesome though and really excited to be voting.
posted by chococat at 9:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Craig Oliver, full quote:

I listened to him very carefully. Let's think of the words he laid out for himself. He was obviously inviting us to compare him with Mr. Haper. Integrity, trust, openness, tolerance, truthfulness. I have to say that Mr. Haprer used all of these words himself and basically lived up to none of them. I know that many of you may feel that this is this the night we should say kind things about Harper, but he was caught lying, he was caught cheating (off camera "Jesus"). He showed, towards the end, incredible intolerance to Canadians who were Arabs and Muslims which many will find always unforgivable. The whole idea of a tipline - listen to your parents - your neightbours, and report on some kind of practices you might...and call the Mounties who wanted nothing to do with this. So now our job will be, my colleagues and I, to hold Mr. Trudeau to scrunity. To makes sure that he lives up to the words about honesty and truthfulness that he has now talked about.
posted by nubs at 9:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


I just heard someone say, "Now we have to pay TAX on WEED!"
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 9:57 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]


Anyone have a link to the Craig Oliver bit? I'd love to hear that myself, but I was watching the CBC stream.
posted by Imperfect at 9:59 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


I have a feeling the Craig Oliver bit will be showing up online somewhere soon.
posted by nubs at 10:00 PM on October 19, 2015


I will have a spring in my step tomorrow. Goodnight, everyone!
posted by figurant at 10:01 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Thank you flex, for your excellent post that became our temporary home tonight. Now it's time to get off the computer!
posted by Kevin Street at 10:04 PM on October 19, 2015 [6 favorites]


Fun to watch Harper's 2011 acceptance speech now.
posted by mantecol at 10:04 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Good night all - and thanks to flex for researching and posting this!
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:07 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Good night, everyone, and thanks, flex! We really did it!
posted by cotton dress sock at 10:09 PM on October 19, 2015


Well I'm waiting for all the result to be in!
posted by mazola at 10:14 PM on October 19, 2015


Thank you flex, for putting together such a great post.
Good work, everybody! I'm glad we got rid of the man in the blue suit, but we still have a lot of work to do to keep on track.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 10:18 PM on October 19, 2015


The ID thing: we have to prove 1) who you are 2) where you live; so we loved people with a driver's licence, because it covered everything and we could cross you right off if you were on the registered list. If you had health card or passport or something like that, you needed an extra piece of id with your name and address PRINTED on it, not handwritten (so a phone bill, personal cheque....pretty long list of stuff you could use.)
When a BC resident changes their address they don't receive a whole new drivers license. Instead, they receive a simple printed address sticker that is applied to the back of an existing drivers license.

Today there were reports of people showing up to the polls with both their Elections Canada voting card and their BC Drivers License with printed address sticker, and they were denied voting because the printed address sticker on their BC Drivers License was considered invalid.

This was just at one polling station, but it shows how one election worker who doesn't understand the rules can ruin things for a lot of people.
posted by i_have_a_computer at 10:19 PM on October 19, 2015




Re Bill Blair... I don't think he was calling the shots in the G20 fiasco.

Whether he was or wasn't is irrelevant (and he was very much so, in any case); it happened on his watch. He was responsible for oversight, setting direction and policy, and upholding the fucking Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The buck stops somewhere, and in that power structure, it stops with him. The man should be in jail, not our likely next Minister of Justice.

Also, I'm not super-happy that we as a country have decided we are okay with electing another PM who votes in favour of blatantly unconstitutional shit like C51. That is pretty well balanced, tonight, by my sublime joy at imagining exactly how Harper felt the moment the numbers were insurmountable. I'm only letting myself think of it every so often, like sipping the most delicious brandy in the world. It's heady stuff.

Harper is gone, forever. There is much cause for celebration in that.

And, agreed, the right thing for Mulcair to have done after such a drubbing is declare a new convention to nominate a leader for the party, and run in it if he wanted to. Staying on is... gauche, at best. Losing is one thing (and, oddly, I wouldn't fault Harper for staying on--he didn't lose that badly, which is actually worrying), getting your ass handed to you is another.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:28 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Craig Oliver's farewell to Harper.

Sounded to me like the "jesus" came from whoever was filming their TV.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:30 PM on October 19, 2015


Neat that Ruth Ellen Brosseau kept her seat, actually.

For those who don't remember, Brosseau was an NDP paper candidate in Quebec (Berthier–Maskinongé) in the orange wave, who was held up, with no small amount of mockery, as an example of how unprepared the NDP was.

And then she buckled down and did her job and was good at it.
posted by frimble at 10:39 PM on October 19, 2015 [13 favorites]


Staying on is... gauche, at best

Something to consider--there might be very few other options right now. A lot of Mulcair's guys just lost their seats. Pat fucking Martin, even. They may need him until the party figures out what they are doing again. I dunno.
posted by Hoopo at 10:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


Ruth Ellen Brosseau has such a heartwarming story. It sounds like her constituents fell in love with her for simple things like returning phone calls, and being around in the community. From the National Post:
“I just spent my whole summer meeting mayors and running all over the riding. A lot of people told me this was the first time they would have their federal member come meet them outside of election time,” she said. “I thought, how can you be a strong voice in Ottawa when you don’t know what’s going on on the ground? So that motivated me to keep going, and I just love it. Every day is different.”
I'm glad she got to keep her seat.
posted by Banknote of the year at 10:48 PM on October 19, 2015 [10 favorites]


Does Harper know he resigned?

I'm not sure if Nigel Wright has told him yet.
posted by bonehead at 10:51 PM on October 19, 2015 [5 favorites]


Does Harper know he resigned?

It depends on what team of programmers are in place.

And morre than anything I am so very happy that Harper couldn't pull it off with what essentially amounted to race baiting. The most disgusting thing I have ever seen in a modern federal election campaign.

Also, I am now older, for the first time in my life, than the prime minister of my country.
Strange.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 10:55 PM on October 19, 2015 [12 favorites]


For the first time in my life I do not live in an NDP riding, I guess I am ok with that if it means Harper gets the boot.
posted by Cosine at 10:59 PM on October 19, 2015


And speaking of NDPers I'm glad managed to hang on: Romeo Saganash has squeaked ahead in Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou, with 191/193 polls reporting. His speech on missing and murdered Indigenous women is incredibly powerful, and I hope he'll hold Trudeau accountable for his promise of real, nation-to-nation dialogue.
posted by Banknote of the year at 11:01 PM on October 19, 2015 [7 favorites]




how many Canadians does it take to unscrew an asshole?

an overwhelming majority *


* parliamentarilly speaking, of course
posted by philip-random at 11:33 PM on October 19, 2015 [1 favorite]


The google results map was surprisingly good. They aren't going to have the server load issues that the Canadian media companies sometimes did. They also didn't appear to be in a race to colour all the squares and call a winner.

The CBC dashboard was good too, but ridings flipping back and forth because only a few polls had been counted was not helpful. At least make them a different shade of red/blue/orange until there is a clear winner.
posted by Gary at 11:37 PM on October 19, 2015 [4 favorites]


No more Harper. Thank you Canada. Good night.
posted by dw at 11:42 PM on October 19, 2015 [2 favorites]


Nixon (yes that Nixon) called tonight's election in 1972.
posted by Mitheral at 12:01 AM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


The NDP vote share is almost the same as in 2008.
posted by chapps at 12:09 AM on October 20, 2015


No more Harper. Thank you Canada

all he ever wanted was love ...
posted by philip-random at 12:13 AM on October 20, 2015


What's interesting is that the Liberals now have a solid majority (54% of the seats) with 39.5% of the popular vote. In 2011, the Conservatives had a solid majority (54% of the seats) with 39.6% of the popular vote. It's a bit uncanny.

I sure hope the Liberals keep their promise to enact some sort of electoral reform in 18 months. I think we'd better get ready to march on Ottawa on April 20, 2017 if they don't*. I hope this is the last time we see undemocratic results like this.

*Conveniently enough, we could combine this with another march on Ottawa if they don't legalize it as promised.
posted by ssg at 12:29 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


Can't sleep :/ My overwhelming emotion is relief (and slight disorientation as I recover from a ten-year dissonance between how I thought reality was and ought to be and how it was actually unfolding). It's really over. We don't have to worry about the absolute worst of the worst anymore. We don't have to despair. I'm so glad Harper didn't succeed in fundamentally distorting the character of our nation that people like Tommy Douglas and Trudeau senior worked to shape, as I feared. And I'm proud of what we collectively achieved, by listening to each other, trusting each other, and for many, setting aside deeply held beliefs for the sake of the greater good. Thank you to everyone who did that.

This goodwill can't be wasted. Our new government has to know that even with this sweep, it's not Trudeaumania 2.0, it's not a mandate like they had in the 70s or 90s. They have one chance to make good on PR promises. We have to let them know it.
posted by cotton dress sock at 12:30 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


jinx ssg
posted by cotton dress sock at 12:31 AM on October 20, 2015


Oh my, how nice to wake up to a Liberal majority. I'm but one Icelander, but I think I can safely say I speak for the world when I say:

Welcome back, Canada, we missed you.
posted by Kattullus at 1:48 AM on October 20, 2015 [12 favorites]


Also. I just love that picture of Justin Trudeau living up to his father's goofy streak.
posted by Kattullus at 1:49 AM on October 20, 2015


Yay! Federal scientists will be able to publicly talk about their research again!
posted by sebastienbailard at 1:55 AM on October 20, 2015 [15 favorites]


This is great and all, but before we descend too deep into self-congratulations I'd like to remind everyone that we live in a country where 31.9% of the population are still raging assholes and/or profoundly gullible.
posted by Shepherd at 2:10 AM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


From Rabble: Prime Minister-Elect Justin Trudeau has many promises to keep.

I suspect that the points about parliamentary procedure and no longer muzzling scientists will go through without much difficulty, but will be shocked if the next federal election is contested in any system other than first-past-the-post.
posted by frimble at 2:24 AM on October 20, 2015


Yes, but sweetie, today we can enjoy that the rest of Canada aren't raging assholes and/or profoundly gullible.

In my all Conservative office today, I will have just randomly decided that wearing red is a coincidence. But the air horn and foam finger might ruin that.
posted by Kitteh at 2:40 AM on October 20, 2015 [16 favorites]


Thank you Canada.
posted by Just this guy, y'know at 2:42 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm Canadian and just moved to England a few weeks ago. I normally don't follow Canadian politics closely, and in my darker moments I worry that it's because I don't care enough. I can also be a bit lazy because my husband does keep very close track, can quickly fill me in, and often does.

Yesterday I caught up on everything about the election I'd missed in the weeks during our move when we didn't have internet access and it hit me - the reason I don't follow Canadian politics closely is because I care too fucking much when I do catch up. I'd heard all the big stuff of course, but plenty had my eyes smarting with anger and sadness as I read editorials and articles.

Of course, enough stuff filtered past me in the past ten years to make getting Joe Oliver the fuck out of my riding and Stephen Harper the fuck out of office very, very important, and we made sure we voted strategically before leaving Toronto.

I woke up at 4:30 am GMT to a Facebook feed full of jubilation. I've never been so glad to be a light sleeper, it was awesome to share the celebration live.

Like others have said above - I knew the past 10 years to be a nightmare, but I think now that it's over I'm only starting to realise how much of a nightmare it was. It's like an old, familiar friend has returned. I'm heading to London in a couple of weeks - it will be nice to walk into Canada House with my head held high, proud to be a Canadian again.

And, one more thing - it's just so damn nice to get the result I wanted from my vote for a change. It's happening more often lately, but not often enough to be something I can take for granted.
posted by champagneminimalist at 2:53 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm mostly happy about this outcome. Part of me feels like we would have been better off with a minority Liberal government supported by the NDP, but part of me also wants to see the NDP punished for veering to the right. This country needs a legitimate left wing party. It keeps us sane.

The Liberals also have a lot of promises to live up to. For me the most interesting is electoral forum. As noted in the Rabble article, now that the Liberals have been given a majority government for the same fickle reasons as every other party in Canadian history, will they actually have the backbone to reform the system?

The Liberals now have four years to work with, and sympathetic provincial governments across the country. From what I've read about the people who ran his campaign and Justin himself, I'm cautiously optimistic. I hope they make good use of their time.
posted by Alex404 at 2:57 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


I suspect some version of this is on every editorial page across the country this morning.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have a letter to write to my MP (and I suspect member of cabinet). It's going to take a long time to undo all Harper's damage, so he needs to get started. Promises to fix things (C-51, aboriginal women, census, science, election reform, wow the list is endless...) only matter if they're followed by action.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:36 AM on October 20, 2015 [8 favorites]


I too like others mostly just feel relief. I'm not happy with how much the NDP lost but it is another reason to hold the Libs to their electoral reform promise.

I feel relief that he's gone but mostly I feel relief that all the race baiting stuff that was pulled in this election did not work. I was afraid that too many people were buying it and that my opinion about and connection with fellow Canadians was taking a beating. It hurt my heart.

If my Facebook feed is any indication as well as comments that I read elsewhere, this strategy may have actually backfired somewhat. The overwhelming sentiment I'm reading from people is about not being bullied by fear and racism and that people won't stand for that type of electioneering tactics. It really pissed people off and added a final reason that Harper needed to just fuck right off.

Of course I'm reading with some selection bias but that thought that he might have actually lost the election because of this strategy not working like they hoped, makes me warm and happy inside.
posted by Jalliah at 4:38 AM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


Has anybody checked in on Earl Cowan?
posted by The Card Cheat at 4:43 AM on October 20, 2015


champagneminimalist: It's like an old, familiar friend has returned.

As a non-Canadian who's always had warm feelings towards Canada, it's a bit like an old, familiar friend has left the weird cult they've been a member of for the last ten years, where they worshiped guns and oil and hated people who were different.
posted by Kattullus at 4:53 AM on October 20, 2015 [20 favorites]


Yay, Canada, yay! So happy for y'all!
posted by longdaysjourney at 4:53 AM on October 20, 2015


My riding elected a climate change denying Con. My fellow citizens are dumb. So very dumb.
posted by five fresh fish at 5:03 AM on October 20, 2015


I'm simultaneously thrilled and nervous about how lefty my office will discover me to be today (though our house is an NDP house). But then I work in an office of rich white dudes, so *shrug*.
posted by Kitteh at 5:05 AM on October 20, 2015


To get back to that metaphor of a friend changing, then returning to his old self.... I don't know how to say this... but during the Harperist Cult years, Canada wasn't even polite anymore. In fact, Canada was downright rude.

Seriously, welcome back, Canada.
posted by Kattullus at 5:05 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


It's funny to think that this is actually NDP's second-best election, in terms of number of seats held.

I'm so relieved that Harper is gone. I want Canada back. I used to love my country so much, and just as I came into voting age I got to see him slowly dismantling all the things I adored about it.

Now my regularly red city is back from blue. The MP is a novice and so I'll be keeping a close eye on him, my friends and I are very active and he can expect to hear from our advocacy groups in short order.

The Green candidate slightly outperformed NDP here despite the NDP being the biggest threat to the Conservative MP during the two elections previous (so during the Jack Layton era). I suspect if the anti-Harper sentiment weren't so powerful here in the Atlantic provinces - almost everyone I know is ABC - she would have performed better. I can see her becoming a real contender, eventually.
posted by one of these days at 5:26 AM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


"We believe that the government should manage Canadians' money like they manage their own"

Translated to the average Canadian who goes into debt to buy a home, education and transportation that is pretty much the other party's platforms.
posted by srboisvert at 5:38 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


I mean, this proves to me that you can't win an election in this country if Mike Myers is against you. My faith in Canadians' love of MM is restored. God bless CAmerica.
posted by SassHat at 5:49 AM on October 20, 2015


OKAY DONE! NOW GIVE US BACK OUR PRISON FARM, YOU ASSHOLES!
posted by crazylegs at 5:50 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


If my Facebook feed is any indication as well as comments that I read elsewhere, this strategy may have actually backfired somewhat. The overwhelming sentiment I'm reading from people is about not being bullied by fear and racism and that people won't stand for that type of electioneering tactics.

The "niqab bombshell" strategy backfired in a wonderfully paradoxical way. Even though most Canadians support (or did support - perhaps this election started to change that) Harper's position, it led directly to Harper's downfall by signalling that the Liberals were the only likely party to defeat him. Harper's only chance was to keep things as murky as possible for as long as possible. The niqab debate - and its fallout - produced clarity.

And that was bad for Harper.
posted by clawsoon at 6:19 AM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


One wag claimed that the Liberals ruled Canada for more of the 20th century than the Soviets ruled Russia. It's the world's most successful political brand.
posted by clawsoon at 6:22 AM on October 20, 2015


The "niqab bombshell" strategy backfired in a wonderfully paradoxical way.

Exactly. It achieved its goal of destroying the NDP in Québec -- which opened the door for the Liberals to sweep the strategic vote.

In other words, the niqab issue may have changed an NDP minority into a Liberal majority. Basically, Harper's nightmare scenario.

I may not be thrilled about the NDP's collapse or the Liberals having absolute power until 2019, but the pleasure I take in Harper having brought about his own worst-case scenario with his horrible race-baiting is a pretty sweet silver lining of schadenfreude.
posted by saturday_morning at 6:23 AM on October 20, 2015 [14 favorites]


Happy the West Coast stayed Orange, sad that Halifax didn't.

Other than that, I'm way too hungover to effectively communicate my feelings about last night, aside from the admittedly simplistic WOOOO WWOOOOOO WOOO!!!!! BAHAHAAHAHAH! SEE YOU NEVER, STEVIE! GO SWIM IN A TAILINGS POND YOU MISERABLE SOCIOPATH!
posted by mrjohnmuller at 6:25 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


The people in my office have turned out to be maddeningly mature about the election results. They wouldn't have voted for the Liberal party and have no love for Trudeau, but now that he is in power, they want him to keep his promises and succeed.
posted by Kitteh at 6:46 AM on October 20, 2015 [9 favorites]


In addition to holding Trudeau accountable on reforming the electoral process, we also want to be holding him accountable on reforming parliamentary proceedings and limiting the power of the PMO. It's super wonky, even more so than electoral reform, but we need both.

For several years now, Radical Centrist of the blog On Procedure and Politics has been arguing that reforming the operation of the House of Commons is even more important than electoral reform. Here's the series they did on giving the House more oversight of the government:
  1. Introduction
  2. Committees
  3. Question period
  4. Draft legislation
  5. Empowering backbenchers
posted by Banknote of the year at 6:46 AM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


To all the non-Canadian progressives spouting this "welcome back" stuff: Liberals aren't great either. Hold them to account for their non-progressive moves as much as you did for Harper. Please. With a majority, it will be difficult to get that accountability in the House. We need critical voices internationally as much as ever.
posted by Kurichina at 6:47 AM on October 20, 2015 [15 favorites]


An aside: can someone explain the odds for or against Harper returning to party leadership and the pm position someday? He's not exactly old and part of me dreads a sequel.
posted by ead at 6:55 AM on October 20, 2015


I feel I have been following this election pretty closely but I don't understand why, when Mulcair and Trudeau had the exact same stance on the niqab, it decimated the NDP's support in Quebec but not for the Liberals.
posted by saucysault at 6:58 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


So: 28% of seats e women, 3% are First Natiions, best we've ever done, which is simultaneously good and sad.
Very concerned that first nations voters encountered major problems voting (running our of ballots?!) But pleased the govt has committed to ending discriminatory education funding on reserve and 50% women in cabinet.
posted by chapps at 6:58 AM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


I admit that because I had no doubt about who I would vote for locally, I didn't follow the federal leaders that closely. I've been looking it up but don't see what or how Trudeau has promised electoral reform. Electoral reform means (or should mean) a constitutional amendment. Are we really wanting to go down that road again?

I suppose he could find a way to legislate it, but this extra-constitutional legislating thing (legislating things that are meant to be consitutionally set, in ways that aren't so much unconstitutional, but outside the consititution) that Harper has done so much of really grates. e.g. Fixed election dates are not what the constitution gives as the mechanism for deciding election dates. The constitution specifies a Westminster style (i.e. first-past-the-post) parliament. Changing that may be a good idea, but if we're going to do it, it would require the agreement of every province to a constitutional amendment, not just Trudeau passing a law to put some sort of patch over the constitution.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 7:01 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Eh, Mulcair was saying two different things about the niqab. In QC, he agreed that maybe it wasn't a great idea, but in English Canada, he was saying it was okay. As a not-able-to-vote NDP supporter, I didn't like that. Don't pander to QC racism full stop. IIRC, Trudeau had said it wasn't right for the government to decide to tell women how to dress in any context; when we do that, we are no better than the men who tell the women they have to wear it in the first place.

The consensus among the Tories in the office is that Harper capitalizing on hate is what cost him the election. It disgusted them too.
posted by Kitteh at 7:03 AM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


If only I had a penguin..., my understanding is that is exactly why the Single Transferable Vote (ie. ranked ballots) is the most likely and easiest way forward for electoral reform. It leaves the Westminster system intact, just changes the way the candidates in each riding are selected.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:04 AM on October 20, 2015


Yes, it will probalby mean constitutional amendment (which isn't always a bad thing - it is supposed to be a living document). It was part of their official platform with a deadline of 18 months for implementation after an all-party committee submits its recommendations.
posted by saucysault at 7:04 AM on October 20, 2015


Thanks Kitteh, I saw there was controversy over him saying different things in French and English, but I didn't realise it was the niqab that was the missing context.
posted by saucysault at 7:06 AM on October 20, 2015


Oh, I have no issue with constitutional amendement on the living-document front. I have issue with it on the oh-god-not-this-again front. And unlike recent changes and attempted changes, this wouldn't just require one province or only seven provinces, but all 10.

I would say putting in a ranked ballot through legislation rather than constitutional amendment would qualify as extra-constitutional. It would be hard to argue that FPP isn't part of the common-law portion of the constitution.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 7:09 AM on October 20, 2015


Now my regularly red city is back from blue

And now my regularly blue city is gone red by a squeaker. I voted in the advance polls when there was still much gloom and voted strategically (as well, though I have deep orange roots, the perennial NDP candidate is uninspiring).

I felt a weird vertigo when I read the results for my riding: in thirty years of this stuff -- at federal, provincial, and municipal levels -- I think this is the first time that my vote ended up going to the winning candidate.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:10 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


I would never suggest that the CBC has any bias, but they mentioned early and often that the niqab issue would cause problems for Mulcair in Quebec, and didn't say much about how it would affect the Liberals. I don't know if that influenced strategic voting decisions or not.

(They also happened to play "I Believe In Miracles" behind clips of Trudeau's acceptance speech as the intro on the The Current on CBC Radio this morning. I'm not saying the CBC has any bias, but...)
posted by clawsoon at 7:12 AM on October 20, 2015


In addition to holding Trudeau accountable on reforming the electoral process, we also want to be holding him accountable on reforming parliamentary proceedings and limiting the power of the PMO.

This. This is far more important and harder to see than electoral reform. These are the true levers of power, and where Harper's grasp was the tightest. The CPC, the PMO, had lists of boards and committees to target for control, political monitors and minders set in place, unprecedentedly deep into the civil service.

How may times was the Major Projects Management Office mentioned in the media? I doubt most Canadians have ever heard of them. Yet the MPMO was/is the PMO tentacle that managed both the Keystone and the Northern Gateway pipeline processes, the F-35 fighter jet and the Naval Frigate programs, among many others, completely in the shadows, never reporting to Parliament.

The MO of the Harper government was to embed political decision makers down at the operational levels of government to control orthodoxy and message management. You want to know why some groups of refugees sailed through the system while others were delayed? Why certain charities got very close scrutiny? You want to understand how the government was able to keep science quiet? How they were able to run the government through the shadow cabinet that was the PMO, without accountability to Parliament or to the public? Those are the places that need a look.
posted by bonehead at 7:13 AM on October 20, 2015 [22 favorites]


I just went back through news articles in English and French and Mulcair was pretty direct in French about it: Et là-dessus, je veux être clair : personne n’a le droit de dire à une femme ce qu’elle doit porter ou ne pas porter.

Various members of the party did definitely waver from that stance, but as far as I can tell at the moment, this isn't an issue where Mulcair was two-faced.
posted by frimble at 7:15 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


So the polls were no too accurate. But I do think they drive votes. A high number of ppl at my poll voted for a liberal that has withdrawn.
posted by chapps at 7:16 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Our whole province went red this time around, which is no surprise as Newfoundlanders have a long history of loathing Harper.

While I'm happy to see Harper out, I'm sad to see our excellent longtime MP (and former MHA) Jack Harris defeated in St. John's East.
posted by futureisunwritten at 7:19 AM on October 20, 2015


I sort of loved the aggrieved tone the CBC announcer would have when they had to play a Conservative ad.
posted by Kitteh at 7:20 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


An aside: can someone explain the odds for or against Harper returning to party leadership and the pm position someday? He's not exactly old and part of me dreads a sequel.

I suppose anything can happen. It wouldn't be the first time that a party leader came back after years of absence. But there is not way of knowing now, and he wouldn't get a shot at running again for a very, very long time.
My gut tells me that another Harper run at leadership is very unlikely in the next 5-10 years.

He is a career politician though. I wouldn't rule it out entirely.

I'm also a bit surprised that he seems to be sticking around as MP. I would have thought he'd see it as too much of a demotion. Maybe someone can enlighten us on what he might be thinking right now?
posted by beau jackson at 7:24 AM on October 20, 2015


I think the popular vote, especially in Quebec, was shifting faster than the polls could track. I don't think a lot of Quebekers made their minds up until perhaps even they had the pencil in their fingers. The ABCs were strong, but who to vote for was not clear at all.

I do think the niqab issue was the key to settling this, at least in Quebec---it put into sharp relief the mixed messages of the NDP and Trudeau's simpler message. Quebekers were able to choose more easily, breaking from the NDP towards both the BQ and to the Liberals.

And that sealed Harper's fate. Until then, I suspect the Liberals were headed towards a minority. But the crystallization of the vote in Quebec was the deciding factor for the Liberal majority. That's down to the skills and willingness of all three leaders to pander to xenophobia and the politics of fear.
posted by bonehead at 7:27 AM on October 20, 2015


On a personal note, my son(who is 15) and I volunteered for the excellent NDP candidate (who won) and were volunteer scrutineers.
Extremely proud that my son, when his count differed, politely requested and got a recount of the ballots. He was wrong, but I was really proud at how seriously he took it, and how respectful the (exhausted at the end of a 7am - 9pm day) election staff were. (As well as the whole green and NDP scruiteer group, who were all great)
posted by chapps at 7:29 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


I'm also a bit surprised that he seems to be sticking around as MP. I would have thought he'd see it as too much of a demotion.

Perhaps he wants to be more like Robert Stanfield than Jim Prentice.
posted by clawsoon at 7:30 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Maybe someone can enlighten us on what he might be thinking right now?

Harper.exe has stopped.
Abort, Retry, Fail?_
posted by bonehead at 7:31 AM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


Yeah resigning as leader is one thing, resigning your seat like Prentice? That was just childish.
posted by chapps at 7:32 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


So the polls were no too accurate. But I do think they drive votes. A high number of ppl at my poll voted for a liberal that has withdrawn.

And she was such a (apologies) weirdo. The only thing she regrets about being outed for racist Facebook posts is that she didn't take on "cyberbullying" during the campaign. Ugh.
posted by Nevin at 7:47 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


My Tory-supporting family has never threatened to disown me for my liberal politics, but they might for smugness. I just called my parents to check in, and my mother was all, "STOP LAUGHING LIKE A MANIAC OR I'M HANGING UP."
posted by orange swan at 7:47 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


@west_ender on Twitter: "When Harper wakes up tomorrow, Nenshi will be his mayor, Notley will be his Premier, and Trudeau will be his Prime Minister."
posted by oulipian at 7:48 AM on October 20, 2015 [24 favorites]


Just came by to say sorry for being in a really bad mood last night. I made two comments and both of them were obnoxious.
posted by Poldo at 8:02 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


How many CBC employees do you think called in "sick" with a hangover this morning?
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:09 AM on October 20, 2015


So the polls were no too accurate. But I do think they drive votes. A high number of ppl at my poll voted for a liberal that has withdrawn.

Even though it shouldn't be, I found this pretty shocking. 12% for a Liberal candidate who has withdrawn? I think a lot of us get wrapped up in the election and forget how for a lot of people, their voting decision is taken very lightly. "Oh, Trudeau seems to be doing well in the polls and I'm not so sure on Harper, so I guess I'll vote for him."

It just shows that strategic voting on a riding level will never work, because so many people will vote for the national party without giving it a second thought. You can agonize and argue and maybe convince 4% of people to switch their vote, but then the national polls and the national campaigns will drive far more votes than there are local strategic voters.

And we definitely need proportional representation, because far too many Canadians vote as if we already have it.
posted by ssg at 8:10 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I wonder how the Queen is going to feel the first time Herself & Justin get together officially? I think she's known him since he was a toddler... and now look at him, running the country and everything.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 8:12 AM on October 20, 2015 [8 favorites]


Just because it amuses me: baby balancing.
posted by maudlin at 8:14 AM on October 20, 2015 [12 favorites]


I'm also a bit surprised that he seems to be sticking around as MP. I would have thought he'd see it as too much of a demotion.

Paul Martin stuck around as a backbencher for years, didn't he?
posted by saturday_morning at 8:20 AM on October 20, 2015


Poldo: I made two comments and both of them were obnoxious.
Poldo, I wouldn't feel bad about it. Honesty isn't obnoxious, IMO, especially in this case. We've lived under a regime that has actively and cynically divided Canadians. I hope Trudeau exceeds my low expectations for him but frankly anything, at least right now, is better than what we had.
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:22 AM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


... and now look at him, running the country and everything

My hope is that the Prime Minister and his cabinet will be running the country, not the Prime Minister alone. We're just so used to Harper running the country by himself because he was seemingly incapable of delegating or collaborating, and because he had driven most of the capable people out of the Conservative Party, leaving him nothing but sycophants and attack dogs.

Over the years, successive Prime Ministers have taken on more and more power (Harper wasn't the first - he was just the worst). The Prime Minister should be just the first among equals - he or she is not a President.
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 8:25 AM on October 20, 2015 [9 favorites]


Paul Martin stuck around as a backbencher for years, didn't he?

After the 2006 election he stayed as a backbencher until the 2008 election.
posted by papercrane at 8:27 AM on October 20, 2015


Growing prime ministerial power is not unique to Canada, of course.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:27 AM on October 20, 2015


The Prime Minister should be just the first among equals - he or she is not a President.

The Canadian prime minister has considerable more power than a president.
posted by Nevin at 8:30 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


Well the PM isn't commander-in-chief so there's that at least.
posted by GuyZero at 8:32 AM on October 20, 2015


Hah...I hadn't seen that baby-balancing trick before. Makes for a pretty great photo, actually.
posted by Kreiger at 8:38 AM on October 20, 2015


My hope is that the Prime Minister and his cabinet will be running the country, not the Prime Minister alone.

This was a good reminder for me. It's been so long that I had to sit back and remember what it was like before. Regardless of the party in power I was very familiar with many cabinet ministers because they were doing things and talking about them. It did feel like a group of people in power. Under Harper feeling like it was just one person became so normalized that I had almost forgotten it isn't supposed to be one person. Scary.
posted by Jalliah at 8:47 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


This is a great post and has been a good conversation. A real shame that Lemurrhea and a lot of other folks never got to see the end of the Harper years.
posted by LegallyBread at 8:55 AM on October 20, 2015 [8 favorites]


One thing I expect for sure is that we'll have a strong cabinet, with ministers that really, truly do matter.

Almost none of the Harper government ones will be remembered---quick, how many can you name even now? How many can you call to mind from Jean Chrétien's era? Pierre's?

And that's good first step toward a more open government: ministers are accountable, to the press, to parliament, to us. Offices and panels no one has heard of, that never report to parliament, are not.
posted by bonehead at 8:55 AM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


We should be expecting a cabinet that's 50% women, too.
posted by maudlin at 8:58 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


You're right. Re-reading it, this thread was definitely missing Lemurrhea. Damn.
posted by Kreiger at 9:03 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Does anybody have a list of the NDPers that went down to defeat? It seems like the party really lost a lot of its bench strength, and I'm sure the Commons will be weaker for the loss. On the other hand, as bonehead said, the incoming Cabinet will have a lot of talented veterans as possible ministers, which is something we really need.
posted by sardonyx at 9:04 AM on October 20, 2015


Where do the Conservatives go from here? Harper wil remain an MP (though I suspect that will end shortly after the new leader is selected; he didn'twant to pull a Prentice), but I'm trying to figure out who might step into the role. Harper's style seems to have left a bit of a vacuum.
posted by nubs at 9:05 AM on October 20, 2015


An aside: can someone explain the odds for or against Harper returning to party leadership and the pm position someday? He's not exactly old and part of me dreads a sequel.

I'd wager exactly zero chance that he goes for the leadership again.

Well the PM isn't commander-in-chief so there's that at least.

De jure, maybe not--that's the GG's (ceremonial) role. De facto the Canadian Forces are commanded directly from the Cabinet Room a/o PMO.

You're right. Re-reading it, this thread was definitely missing Lemurrhea. Damn.

It seems like Canadians got his last message, which gives me some hope.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 9:10 AM on October 20, 2015


I just went back through news articles in English and French and Mulcair was pretty direct in French about it

He was very direct about it. The whole "says one thing in English and another in French" slogan really stuck.
posted by Hoopo at 9:13 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


Where do the Conservatives go from here?

Injection of new blood, is my guess. My fear is Doug Ford somehow weaseling his way in (although provincially at least, apparently, the Cons have given a big fat nope to him running under a blue banner); most likely a juniorish Alberta politician will be thrust into the limelight, same way Harper was.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 9:15 AM on October 20, 2015


The PM's seat imposed an effective salary cap on his oil and gas lobbying. Now he can charge whatever the going rate is for that.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:18 AM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


Federal election 2015: Voter turnout highest in decades
But at least 68.49 per cent of eligible Canadians voted in this election, as of 2:40 a.m. — more than the 61.1 per cent turnout in 2011 and the highest turnout Canada’s had in a federal election since 1993, when turnout was 69.6.
posted by mephisjo at 9:20 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]




The Canadian Human Rights Commission has sent Prime Minister-Designate Justin Trudeau a list of recommendations to “repair” human rights in Canada.

- rewrite and rename the Zero Tolerance for Barbaric Cultural Practices Act, to remove any insinuation that certain religions are a threat to Canadian society;

- accelerate the process for bringing in refugees and asylum seekers fleeing war, persecution and environmental devastation, and ensure that the selection process is not discriminatory;

- ensure that the arbitrary detention and imprisonment of thousands of undocumented people seeking asylum in Canada, many of whom are suffering from mental illness, is brought to an end;

- immediately convene a national inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls, and develop a national action plan;

- ensure that all people in Canada have access to safe drinking water and adequate housing;

- end the inequitable funding of child welfare services and schools on First Nations reserves;

- amend the Canadian Human Rights Act to explicitly protect transgender people from discrimination;

- stop the overuse of prolonged periods of solitary confinement to manage offenders, a practice disproportionally applied to black and Aboriginal inmates, and offenders with mental illness; and

- protect the rights of all women to express their religion.

posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:29 AM on October 20, 2015 [15 favorites]


Ha, I didn't want to be the first to bring up Doug Ford. The party won't take him seriously, but he might declare his intent to run before he gets a clue. With Harper gone and many of his big cabinet names, except Kenny, the party's going to take a couple years to find their legs again.
posted by beau jackson at 9:35 AM on October 20, 2015


Is there anyone in the Conservative Party they could run as their own young charismatic candidate in 2019?
posted by Kitteh at 9:38 AM on October 20, 2015


Ezra Levant has the sadsies

today just keeps getting better and better

- immediately convene a national inquiry into missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls, and develop a national action plan;

- ensure that all people in Canada have access to safe drinking water and adequate housing;

- end the inequitable funding of child welfare services and schools on First Nations reserves;

- amend the Canadian Human Rights Act to explicitly protect transgender people from discrimination;


and better and better and better!
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 9:38 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


Levant is playing this up. I don't think he's sad at all. He's wants to be the ultimate underdog and this is all just grist for his mill.
posted by beau jackson at 9:44 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


I don't think he's sad at all.

Depends on which definition we're using.

*rimshot*
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:47 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Is there anyone in the Conservative Party they could run as their own young charismatic candidate in 2019?

Michael Chong is their best bet right now, I think. He's Trudeau's age, so he'll be young-ish in 2019, and I wouldn't say that he has charisma. But he's a Reddish Tory who has already been marketed as a moderate reformer, so he'd be a solid choice to grab centrist votes again.
posted by maudlin at 9:49 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Government will grow.

Sure, the government will grow because Trudeau isn't as control freak as Harper.

Personal freedom will shrink.

Like the freedom to wear a niqab, or the freedom to keep your citizenship, or the freedom to not have your death or disappearance ignored.

But we probably will be forced to fill out the census again.

(Quotes from Ezra Levant.)
posted by jeather at 9:52 AM on October 20, 2015


In other news: Ballots run out in 6 First Nation polling stations

It looks like they got extra ballots in just in time, though.

Also, if it hasn't been mentioned upthread:

Record 10 indigenous MPs elected to the House of Commons
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:54 AM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


The polling stations, in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta communities, ran out of ballots in the late afternoon and early evening, triggering calls to Elections Canada officials.

The incidents may signal a large voter turn-out from First Nation communities.


That's tremendous. As the article goes on to say, it's really no big, EC workers are allowed to make photocopies if they need to. Everybody gets to vote.
posted by bonehead at 9:58 AM on October 20, 2015


I just had a thought, pursuant to what I mentioned somewhere above about gutting Elections Canada further: are the Cons going to use the voting irregularities (preprinted ballots etc) as 'evidence' that they should have won?
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:03 AM on October 20, 2015


clawsoon: "The "niqab bombshell" strategy backfired in a wonderfully paradoxical way."

One of the pundits on CBC radio this morning was saying something similar regarding the "He's just not ready" campaign. In that as Trudeau consistently came across during the long campaign (another Conservative initiative) as competent and able to lead his party those attack ads were dismissed by potential Liberal voters. And they took time and resources away from addressing issues that might have been more effective.

One of the things I think the Conservatives are going to reget going foreword for a long while is pissing off the First Nations. They are mobilized now and that sort of thing tends not to go away once it's in place.

Anyone know where to find voter turnout broken out by riding?
posted by Mitheral at 10:04 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm still sort of processing this and, the more I think about it, the more bittersweet it seems. I'm glad to have Harper out of power, but I have enough reservations about Trudeau that I'm not thrilled to see him handed such a commanding mandate. In a perfect world, I would flip about sixty of those red seats to the NDP, giving the Liberals a minority and putting the Conservatives in a well-deserved third place.

I'm also sad to see so many good NDP members voted out, including particularly Olivia Chow and Hélène LeBlanc. I understand why Mulcair's not resigning, but I really wish he would. He seems like a good guy, and is by all accounts a good legislator, but he's no Jack Layton. He needs to step aside and let the party try to find their next Jack. There's no doubt in my mind that, had Layton lived, this election would have put him in the PMO.
posted by 256 at 10:05 AM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


are the Cons going to use the voting irregularities (preprinted ballots etc) as 'evidence' that they should have won?
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering


Doubtful! No need to get eponysterical.
posted by oulipian at 10:10 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Had Layton lived he'd currently be dining a la Michaelle Jean on Harper's (alleged) heart.

Poor Chow though. So many years of public service and in the past year she's been handed two thumping defeats. My bet is she ends up at the CBC, or possibly some sort of international post.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:10 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


saucysault: "I don't understand why, when Mulcair and Trudeau had the exact same stance on the niqab, it decimated the NDP's support in Quebec but not for the Liberals."

Each party drew support from a different demographic. The Liberals' supporters tended to live in or around Montreal or Ottawa, were often immigrants or anglophones, and were strongly federalist (against Quebec nationalism). Many of them had voted Liberal for most of the last fifty years. On the other hand, most of the NDP's seats were in more rural parts of Quebec, where their support came from those who like social-democratic policies, are somewhat-but-not-very nationalistic Quebecois, and were francophone and white. Most of them had only voted for the NDP in the 2011 election, and never before—Jack Layton made a big impression.

Obviously, this is a generalization, and there are many, many voters who don't fit these patterns. But it's not hard to see why the NDP became more vulnerable than the Liberals when the niqab controversy started.
posted by vasi at 10:12 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


> Ezra Levant has the sadsies: "Sun News is gone; the National Post is in disarray; now the Conservatives are in the wilderness. Our work at @therebeltv is cut out for us."

"There Belt V" is the best I could come up with for a few minutes (leaving me to wonder what happened to There Belts IV, III, II and I), or maybe "There Be LTV". I got it finally, but if you're too cool for capitalization you're probably too cool for politics.
posted by benito.strauss at 10:12 AM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


It is a not uncommon refrain in our house that there is an alternate universe Canada where Jack Layton's either never had cancer or it stayed firmly in remission and he is the PM. He really should have been able to be the PM of this one, though.
posted by Kitteh at 10:17 AM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


My riding, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, has the following vote totals:
Cons:24,444
NDP: 21,400
Libs: 21,197
Grn: 2,493

Hopefully that kind of thing will keep the Liberals motivated to reform the election process.
posted by Mitheral at 10:20 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


Adding to what vasi said: the 2015 and 2011 maps show the Liberals picking up some fairly rural Québec ridings last night (as did the Tories). In addition, the BQ picked up only 2-3 of the ridings they lost to the NDP in 2011. All the other ridings went blue or red last night.

I think one additional element that may have worked for the Liberals (and Tories, to some degree) was some sort of cognitive dissonance. Québecers had voted for both parties before, but the NDP only once, really, so some grouchy rural voters probably reverted to the devils they knew.
posted by maudlin at 10:25 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Is there anyone in the Conservative Party they could run as their own young charismatic candidate in 2019?
posted by Kitteh at 11:38 AM on October 20 [+] [!]


They need to recycle Harperbot2000 first. Perhaps some of his servos will be installed into the new model for sentimental reasons.
posted by WinnipegDragon at 10:34 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Neat to see that happening in rural Quebec.

The Ontario map coincides exactly with my levels of comfort in various places. Red or orange in most of the GTA through to Hamilton, the university towns, the east, and the north; blue all through the centre-west. (I've always felt uneasy during the brief times I've spent in any of the Conservative ridings, for cottaging or skiing purposes, usually.) Not sure what that implies or what if anything can be done about it, but it's interesting to see it mapped out like that.
posted by cotton dress sock at 10:36 AM on October 20, 2015


Possible contenders for Tory leadership, via NaPo. Many of them will make your skin crawl.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:36 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


We used to live in the riding of the youngest MP in Canadian History, Pierre-Luc Dusseault, who came in on the 2011 NDP Orange Wave in Quebec. We were pleased to learn that he was able to retain his seat last night.
posted by Kitteh at 10:39 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


Hey, here's the LEGO sculptures that ilana's cousin did!
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:40 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


@Mitheral, Hi almost Neighbour!

We had a nail biter in our new riding of Kootenay-Columbia, which seemed such a hodge-podge of a riding. When I went to be last night, the Conservative was up by 190 votes. final tally:

Wayne Stetski, NDP – 23,529 (37.2 per cent)
David Wilks, Conservative – 23,244 (36.8 per cent)
Don Johnston, Liberal – 12,315 (19.5 per cent)
Bill Green, Green – 4,115 (6.5 per cent)

There are some angry Columbia Valleyans today.
posted by sauril at 10:40 AM on October 20, 2015


There's no doubt in my mind that, had Layton lived, this election would have put him in the PMO.

I agree with you 100%. But I think that Mulcair did as well as anyone could have done, post-Layton. He was clearly disappointed, but I don't think he should be ashamed.
posted by jeather at 10:42 AM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


Jack Layton was a once-in-a-lifetime comet of love, a man of a higher order. Gutted he didn't have his chance. But yeah, no one else could come close.
posted by cotton dress sock at 10:45 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


Let's see the ideas for the new Conservative leader:
he’s exponentially more charismatic than Harper
Well, that isn't saying much.
will a Conservative party moulded in Stephen Harper’s image embrace a Red Tory like Charest?
No.
one of the more personable, less talk-pointy Tories
Still not saying much.
Brother Rob’s notoriety will make success unlikely for Doug, 50
"Notoreity"

I wouldn't be shocked if the new leader is someone most Canadians hadn't heard of yet.
posted by jeather at 10:45 AM on October 20, 2015


Kylo Ren?
posted by nubs at 10:47 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I wouldn't be shocked if the new leader is someone most Canadians hadn't heard of yet.

I have some very jaded notions about how that process will roll.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:50 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm going to fifth the suggestion that Angry Mulcair would've been better. He had a chance with angry populism (a la Diefenbaker). Lord knows Canadians were plenty angry. Natural is good, no matter what your "image experts" tell you.

He had no chance as Mr. Uncanny Valley #2.
posted by clawsoon at 10:51 AM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


The CBC has a guess at likely leadership contenders now that Harper is gone. It covers everyone from Jason Kenney (the obvious choice) to Michelle Rempel.
posted by clawsoon at 11:00 AM on October 20, 2015


Bill Green, Green – 4,115 (6.5 per cent)

Nominative determinism once again.
posted by Rumple at 11:09 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


OMG Jason Kenney is like a fucking weaselly pufferfish, superficially palatable then inflates in your throat.
posted by Rumple at 11:11 AM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


I think a second Harper-lite, like Kenney or Clement, would lead to them getting creamed again at the polls, but sometimes parties need to be spanked a few times before they get it right.

The Conservatives need to find a new formula, the old one is broke. I just hope it's one which could include Joe Clark (or even Charest), and not the Fords.
posted by bonehead at 11:12 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


There is nothing palatable about Kenney. Charest as Tory leader might signal a return to principled conservatism. DoFo would be a Kim Campbell moment.

I hope.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:15 AM on October 20, 2015


If Mulcair were to resign as leader who would the candidates be to replace him? They lost a lot of big names last night.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:21 AM on October 20, 2015


Chow would have been obvious but I think she's done in politics. Peggy Nash, maybe? She was my MP for a while, absolutely fantastic human being in all ways.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:24 AM on October 20, 2015


Anyone know where to find voter turnout broken out by riding?

Been looking but can't find a primary (i.e. EC) source.

There is a riding by riding break-down on the map linked in this Star article. Mouse over your riding to see the stats.

For instance: Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo was 74%. The national average was 68%.
posted by bonehead at 11:25 AM on October 20, 2015


If Mulcair were to resign as leader who would the candidates be to replace him?

I don't think he will, tbh. The NDP doesn't have that tradition, though last night was pretty bad.

I'd want Dewar. Angus would be a sentimental choice, but I'm, not sure he's well suited to leadership.

Just keep Howard Hampton away from the podium.
posted by bonehead at 11:26 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


Murray Rankin in Victoria would be excellent. Could rally the Green vote and the Human Rights vote I think. Dunno if he speaks French though.

Nathan Cullen from the Skeena is very impressive and could appeal to the younger voter as I am guessing he is similar in age and outlook to Trudeau. He's strong on Aboriginal issues too, lots of respect for him on Haida Gwaii from what I've heard.
posted by Rumple at 11:26 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I've heard Megan Leslie mentioned as one to watch within the NDP, though she lost her seat last night
posted by peppermind at 11:27 AM on October 20, 2015


Toronto Centre: 71% turnout. (My riding).
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:28 AM on October 20, 2015


Cullen would be an ...interesting choice, particularly in Alberta. He's made no friends in the oil patch.
posted by bonehead at 11:28 AM on October 20, 2015


There is nothing palatable about Kenney. Charest as Tory leader might signal a return to principled conservatism. DoFo would be a Kim Campbell moment.

I think there is is a huge underlying tension in the Conservative party, and that is the fact that there are still two camps there: the Alliance, and the Progressive Conservatives. Under the Harper years, we've seen most of the PCs driven out, in terms of public roles. I think the leadership race will be about choosing between those two camps, and it could get really nasty.

A DoFo leadership bid might be an amazing thing, in the way that the Trump nomination bid has been.
posted by nubs at 11:30 AM on October 20, 2015


The letter I'll be physically mailing to my MP as soon as I dig up a good physical address for him:

Dear Mr. Oliphant,

Congratulations on your victory in our 42nd election. Your campaign was hard-fought and well-fought, with door-knockers showing up twice at my apartment, the second time with just 40 minutes to go before polls ended. That's dedication!

Congratulations are due as well to your national team, who helped usher in an astounding and unexpected Liberal majority. A clean sweep of Atlantic Canada heralded a trend for the rest of Canada, signalling that the 42nd parliament would look nothing like the 41st.

Finally, Congratulations to your party leader and our new Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. From the outset of the campaign, he responded with positivity against the continued negative attacks of the Conservatives, rejected the narrative that he wasn't ready, and proved that the Liberal party had a vision that Canada agreed with.

All that being said, election 42 exposes a terrible and dangerous flaw in our democracy that was also present in election 41: Only 40% of Canadians voted for the Liberal party, but this somehow translated into a majority parliament. This echoes the result in 2011, where only 40% of Canadians voted for the Conservative party, and that also translated into a majority parliament.

For the last four years, 60% of Canadians have had to suffer through the policies of a government they did not choose. For the next four years, 60% of Canadians will have the same problem. But it doesn't have to be that way for election 43 in 2019.

I want to remind you at this time of Liberal Policy Resolution 31 (https://www.liberal.ca/policy-resolutions/31-priority-resolution-restoring-trust-canadas-democracy/). Electoral reform is an issue near and dear to my heart and the hearts of a great many Canadians, and I hope that the majority parliament your party has been granted doesn't dull the passion professed for it during the campaign.

Now is absolutely the time to make a push on this issue! Witness the riding of Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, which had only 24k Conservative votes, but 21k NDP and 21k Liberal votes each! Our current system assigned a riding to a Conservative MP that only a third of the population wanted. With a more fair system, an NDP or Liberal could be in that riding, or potentially a stronger Conservative mandate. At the least, voting intentions would be made more clear, which is ultimately more satisfying for all involved.

Make no mistake: while the Liberals were handed a hefty mandate, it is not necessarily a mandate for Liberal leadership, it is a mandate for CHANGE. The reason for the surprise majority is because a great many Canadians -- myself included -- voted strategically, changing our votes to help defeat the Conservative representative in our region. So, so many of your votes come from disappointed and disenfranchised NDP voters, who were heartened by your victory at the expense of the Conservatives, but heartbroken by your victory at the expense of the NDP.

Please remember your promises regarding electoral reform. Please work to your utmost to make sure that such reform is studied, proposed, and enacted in time for the next election. This is absolutely your moment to help modernize our democratic processes for the 21st century and ensure that our next election is more fair and representative than any that have come before.

With luck and hard work, next time I'll be voting strongly Liberal because you've earned it, and not because of ABC politics.

---

If you want to steal any of it for a similar letter, please, I'm more than happy for you to do so.
posted by Imperfect at 11:31 AM on October 20, 2015 [27 favorites]


DoFo might split the party back, which would be a joyous occasion and put me in the odious position of being grateful for something that a Ford did.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:31 AM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


Looks like NDP are not making ground in Alberta anyway. It'd be stupid to pander to them and lose big chunks of the rest of the country especially defectors from Greens. I mean, Albertans gonna Albert.
posted by Rumple at 11:31 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Parliament won't be updating addresses until the Chief Electoral Officer certifies the results--update expected 9 November. Probably the best address is the campaign office for a new MP, constituency office for an incumbent. The Information Service for Parliament can give you more precise information, contact here.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:35 AM on October 20, 2015


Hoopo: says one thing in English and another in French

It stuck because there was a bit of truth to it - not so much about specifics regarding his platform or his party's views though.

As a French speaker, and this is strictly my opinion so feel free to disagree, I found that there was something missing when Mulcair spoke French. Sometimes he spoke imprecisely and sure he'd follow up later to clarify his point but the damage had been done, the media & electorate moved on. So often he seemed to waffle in French, to be less direct when he needed to be. There were times he spoke less passionately in French then he did in English. Its hard to quantify as it is more about feeling rather than discernible facts.

Politics among Francophones, particular those from Quebec, can be very passionate, as is their love of their culture & language. I really think he misread the Quebec electorate. Layton understood Quebec better, or at least had better instincts regarding Quebec. In this campaign Mulcair seemed not to. I recognise he's a French speaking Quebecer so I found it particularly strange that he didn't get it.
posted by Ashwagandha at 11:41 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]




US question: What's the percentage of French-speakers (by which I mean reasonable ability in the language, not as a first language) in Parliament? It's not seen as a requirement to be an MP, is it? Would you need to be bilingual to be considered as Cabinet material?
posted by Chrysostom at 11:45 AM on October 20, 2015


No idea about percentages, but yeah, you basically need to be bilingual for the PM's job. Cabinet maybe, largely depends on whether you're wanting to jump to the PMO.

Canada's officially bilingual, meaning all government communications must be available in both English and French, which puts a certain pressure on MPs to have some facility in both languages. In practice, MPs speak English, most speak poor French (unless from Quebec).
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:49 AM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Been looking but can't find a primary (i.e. EC) source.

Here you go. Find your district, look at the bottom of the result (which will appear on-page, no refresh or new page). For instance, mine reads "75,332 of 91,625 registered electors (82.22 %) -- does not include electors who registered on election day."
posted by flibbertigibbet at 11:51 AM on October 20, 2015


I really hope Doug Ford runs, because it would probably make the fracturing of the Reform/Old School PC wings of the party I'm already hoping for even worse. Plus, teh lulz.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:52 AM on October 20, 2015


I feel a bit bad that Kim Campbell is basically a punchline for electoral defeat these days. She wasn't much of a PM, but when she ran Justice she got laws through on consent in sexual assault cases, the rape shield laws, and did a lot of the grunt work pushing gun registration.
posted by Kreiger at 11:52 AM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


As an American, I'm delighted with the outcome for two selfish reasons:
1. Perhaps we can hope that U.S. voters will arise to reject our toxic radical right with similar enthusiasm.
2. If they don't, and Trump or Trump-lite is elected, then I can move to Canada.
posted by carmicha at 11:53 AM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Conservatives were tossing around Christie Blatchford's name. Bonus: born in Quebec.
posted by 256 at 11:58 AM on October 20, 2015


Dude, I would totally take a selfie with Trudeau and I am lukewarm on him.
posted by Kitteh at 11:58 AM on October 20, 2015


My friend Ben on Facebook last night: "Okay, so tomorrow everyone can start looking for and destroying Harper's horcruxes."
posted by Kitteh at 12:05 PM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


No idea about percentages, but yeah, you basically need to be bilingual for the PM's job. Cabinet maybe, largely depends on whether you're wanting to jump to the PMO.

I get the feeling this is indeed true now, but it's a relatively recent development. Pearson spoke functionally no French, and that was the rule rather than the exception among non-Quebecois PMs that came before him.

Kim Campbell is the only PM since who couldn't get through a speech in French.

Conversely, every single PM has been fluent in English, whether as a first or second language (and assuming you are willing to call Chrétien fluent).
posted by 256 at 12:05 PM on October 20, 2015


Thanks, I was familiar with official bilingualism, but wasn't sure how that played out at high levels with de facto requirements.

Appreciate the insights.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:08 PM on October 20, 2015




Why Stephen Harper Stooped to Rob Ford's Level—and Paid the Price
When asked about the event, Michelle Rempel, a Tory member of Parliament from Alberta representing the riding of Calgary Nose Hill, said, "Certainly our prime minister did an event in Etobicoke and there were certainly some people that attended."
Heh.
posted by clawsoon at 12:25 PM on October 20, 2015 [8 favorites]


Murray Rankin in Victoria would be excellent.

You think so? He has even less charisma (or charm or whatever) than Tom Mulcair, doesn't have a history as a true lefty "progressive", and then there's the whole Bilcoin ISDS thing... while I don't believe Rankin was being unpatriotic at all (as the local Greens seemed to think) the issue is pretty nuanced especially when the NDP is going to be under great pressure to vote against TPP. He's also from the southern tip of an island isolated in the Pacific Ocean. The travel time just to get to the YVR hub adds an extra hour to the travel time of the average Island MP, to say nothing of the 6 hour journey to Ottawa.
posted by Nevin at 12:26 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Why Stephen Harper Stooped to Rob Ford's Level—and Paid the Price

>>Rexdale’s marginal status isn’t just geographical. As with the banlieues of Paris, it’s a working-class, immigrant neighborhood, unserved by municipal resources like transit.

As I was saying upthread, plenty of opportunities for the NDP in the heart of "Ford Nation." Which is why you have to avoid making fun of the gauche grotesqueness of Rob Ford.
posted by Nevin at 12:29 PM on October 20, 2015


And now Stephen Harper is living in a van DOWN BY THE RIVER.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:31 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


A couple of comments above about how "Don't Trash the 'stache" Layton would have carried the day. I like Layton and lean orange but I can't agree. There's too much entrenched blue on the map, and too much "natural ruling party red" rhetoric. Plus, Ontario STILL remembers Rae Days too well to allow an NDP majority with their votes. (although why these same memories didn't scare them away from Harper in droves before now based on Mike Harris, I will never understand).

I absolutely believe that the NDP would have been the official opposition in this election if Jack Layton had been in the running.
posted by hearthpig at 12:35 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


After the UK election and what's been happening in the US election, I am tremendously relieved that last minute xenophobia shit didn't fly with Canadians. Good job guys!
posted by tavella at 12:39 PM on October 20, 2015


Blatchford? Well, she hates First Nations people and loves the military, so why not?
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:40 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


plenty of opportunities for the NDP in the heart of "Ford Nation."

I really don't think so, Nevin. Have you actually spoken to anyone who falls into that category? They've bought into the lower taxation, anti-union rhetoric, they don't want "handouts"; they just want to keep what they earn.
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:00 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


In fact, there's huge resentment towards people with stable, permanent, unionized jobs that offer benefits, i.e. the traditional NDP core (i.e. just teachers, some healthcare types, and government workers, at this point). I know someone who was the last of three long-time workers at a western Ontario factory to retire with a pension; new employees are getting half her pay per hour. The predominant feeling is, "if I can't have that, neither should you".
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:06 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


Nevin: "The travel time just to get to the YVR hub adds an extra hour to the travel time of the average Island MP, to say nothing of the 6 hour journey to Ottawa."

Is this really an issue though? More than say a MP living in West Van, Langley or Maple Ridge?
posted by Mitheral at 1:16 PM on October 20, 2015


I hadn't realized that Harper was only 3 years older than Trudeau is now when he first became Prime Minister.

Perhaps we can blame Harper's bad decisions on the follies of youth. He just wasn't ready.
posted by clawsoon at 1:21 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I don't think the NDP has a chance any more, sadly. The Orange wave in Quebec crashed hard when they suddenly realized the NDP didn't hate Niqab-wearing Muslims. Of course, many who turned away from the party over that issue seemed to end up voting for another party on the same side of the issue, so there's really no logic to be found.
The last hope for NDP and Greens is proportional representation. (Greens need it more, if 3.9% is the best they can do)
posted by rocket88 at 1:21 PM on October 20, 2015


I've got to say, I've been feeling pretty down lately and today... I felt pretty good. I watched the election last night and Trudeau's rally this afternoon and it's so refreshing to have the country's leader talking about hope and optimism and not being some kind of bizarre lich king locked away in his tower.
posted by the uncomplicated soups of my childhood at 1:22 PM on October 20, 2015 [8 favorites]


(I haven't been reading much today, but from memory of yesterday's quotes from tories who voted red, comments, etc., the TPP, and its implications for jobs/domestic industries, are really the big deal for them. Understandably.)
posted by cotton dress sock at 1:27 PM on October 20, 2015


I have a friend who has a selfie with Trudeau and it makes me oddly happy.
posted by olya at 1:40 PM on October 20, 2015


Why Stephen Harper Stooped to Rob Ford's Level—and Paid the Price

There's an awful lot of context missing from that article.
For all the reporter's talk of a Rexdale "banlieue" and Dixon Road, there is a lot left out.

For one this is more about the riding of Etobicoke Centre than Rexdale.

The Congress Centre is a convention complex located on the Airport strip. It's surrounded by Hiltons, Holiday Inns, restaurants etc. There are no residences there.
It 's a few hundred meters from the Etobicoke Centre boundary.

Harper grew up in the riding of Etobicoke Centre. Went to Richview high school there.
He would have been able to walk to the Congress Centre in about 40 minutes. It 's under a $10 cab ride today.

Etobicoke Centre is still home to the Fords.
Mother , daughter, and Rob still live there.
A park named after his dad is still there.

Etobicoke Centre was also the most marginal of conservative ridings

Ted Opitz won for the cons by 26 votes over a liberal.

Amid accusations of dirty tricks his victory was overturned by the courts.
And it took an appeal to the Supreme court of Canada to have it reinstated.

26 votes.
In Harper's boyhood home riding, and the Ford's home riding.

He was there to rally the troops for Opitz in Etobicoke Centre.

Little to do with Rexdale.
posted by yyz at 1:41 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


Harper grew up in the riding of Etobicoke Centre. Went to Richview high school there.

Being from Alberta myself, it always bugs me when people say that Harper is from Alberta. He's as much of an Albertan as Ted Byfield; both of them, I think, were drawn West by a romantic image they had of Alberta, rather than the reality of the place.
posted by clawsoon at 1:52 PM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


I've had my office door open all morning and heard more than a few student conversations about the election. Woo-hoo! I'll be curious to see what youth turnout was like - I ran into a former student who had transferred to the university and taken advantage of the student polls there. She said it was probably the difference between voting and not.

I know there's a long road ahead but I can't stop grinning.
posted by invokeuse at 2:03 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


As a Texan, I always felt the same way about George W. Bush.
posted by grouse at 2:03 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


...and assuming you are willing to call Chrétien fluent...

I know some people who've worked for or negotiated against him. According to them, that trademark goofiness....mostly... it's an act, to make you underestimate him or make him more 'popular'. The guy is sharp, his english accent is real but don't be fooled by it. And I'm not saying this because I like him, because I certainly don't.
posted by coust at 2:04 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


My disappointment about the NDP results is tempered by the knowledge that the person leading our country into the future, at least for a few years, is not a lawyer, not a soldier, not a businessperson or banker or economist, but a teacher.
posted by oulipian at 2:10 PM on October 20, 2015 [21 favorites]


> I have a friend who has a selfie with Trudeau and it makes me oddly happy.

My wife briefly met Trudeau a few years ago, when he was an MP but before he was the leader of the party; he was visiting the organization she used to work for. She says he definitely has a presence that doesn't come across on TV.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:15 PM on October 20, 2015


Yeah I saw him a couple years ago at Luminato. No handlers, just one assistant--it was hilarious watching heads turn as he walked down the street. It was like dragging a magnet through iron filings.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 2:17 PM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


> I know someone who was the last of three long-time workers at a western Ontario factory to retire with a pension; new employees are getting half her pay per hour. The predominant feeling is, "if I can't have that, neither should you".

It should be the other way around, but I'm just farting into the wind here.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:19 PM on October 20, 2015


Trudeau just committed again in a press conference that this will be the last election with the FPTP system.
posted by Dismantled King at 2:22 PM on October 20, 2015 [19 favorites]


Thinking on this more I am also struggling a bit with the whole "he was so evil, good riddance!" meme. He's basically the same guy that was elected minority PM nine years ago isn't he? And did all the stuff he transparently said he was going to do? It's not like we elected him and he became evil after the fact...it was all right there. Wasn't it?

If there are opposing viewpoints I'd love to hear them either here or via memail. I am hardly a political sophisticate in such matters.
posted by hearthpig at 2:24 PM on October 20, 2015


Yes and he was evil then. And remained evil for nine years in power.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 2:25 PM on October 20, 2015 [5 favorites]


And the dissection has started:

Who's to blame for the great Tory implosion?
posted by nubs at 2:26 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


He was always pretty open about his ambition to wreck Canada, if sometimes stingy with the details before they were implemented.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:27 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


It's not like we elected him and he became evil after the fact...it was all right there. Wasn't it?

Well, who's "we"? It's not like he swept into power with an overwhelming majority supporting him.
posted by showbiz_liz at 2:27 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


feckless fecal fear mongering : "Injection of new blood, is my guess. My fear is Doug Ford somehow weaseling his way in (although provincially at least, apparently, the Cons have given a big fat nope to him running under a blue banner); most likely a juniorish Alberta politician will be thrust into the limelight, same way Harper was."

The funny thing is that Harper wasn't really an Alberta politician. He grew up in Ontario and was as much a part of that environment as Conservative politics here in Alberta. The last truly Albertan politician that was prominent on the federal stage was Preston Manning, and before him maybe Joe Clark.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:28 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Ugh don't mention Preston Manhole it just summons him

And yeah, he's got the Bush-Texan thing going on, Harper does, which is why I was thinking the party might look to someone with more actual Western cred.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 2:29 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


He was always pretty open about his ambition to wreck Canada, if sometimes stingy with the details before they were implemented.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:27 PM on October 20


Yes, thank you, that articulates what I was trying to express.

@showbiz liz, excellent point as well

@Kevin Street, Stockwell Day?
posted by hearthpig at 2:34 PM on October 20, 2015


Stockwell Day "was born in Barrie, Ontario.... lived in a number of places in Canada during his youth, including Atlantic Canada; Ottawa, where he attended Ashbury College; and Montreal, where he graduated from Westmount High School."
posted by clawsoon at 2:37 PM on October 20, 2015


It should be the other way around, but I'm just farting into the wind here.

Yeah, it should. But people know those old union jobs aren't coming back. (Maybe can't come back, with these mega trade deals.) Maybe it's hard for them not to view those who still benefit from what's left of our labour laws as enjoying a privilege they'll never see.
posted by cotton dress sock at 2:38 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


Shit...it's depressing because it's true.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:42 PM on October 20, 2015


Preston Manning and Joe Clark were both about as Albertan as it gets, for better or worse. Even Bible Bill Aberhart was from Ontario.

It was amusing to hear CBC radio say repeatedly this morning that maybe it's time for the Conservatives to have a leader "from the East".
posted by clawsoon at 2:43 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I guess the difference between Stockwell Day (or the far more successful Harper) and a Preston Manning is that the Alberta born leaders really believed in their ideology, and tended to get punished for it. Harper used ideology to gain power, and could shift priorities and make compromises when he needed to.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:50 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


Harper didn't get elected the first time; it was more about Martin and the Liberals getting thrown out. At that time the NDP weren't seen as a viable alternative. He was re-elected because the Liberals still hadn't been punished enough, and the Bloc was still a significant factor. He won his majority because Layton emerged just as the Bloc and Liberals finally collapsed.

Harper's share of the popular vote? 36%, 37%, 39%, and now 32%, which represents 5.3, 5.2, 5.8, and 5.6 million votes. Conservative support, in other words, has remained relatively steady (the drop in % this time is due to higher overall voter turnout). The opposition vote has been divided and uncertain the last few elections, with Layton's NDP slowly building support while the Liberals were parading a bunch of problematic leaders. Without Layton and with a viable Liberal leader, the centre-left finally had one party that could overcome the mini-monolith that is Canada's right wing.

I do suspect that Layton could have won this one. I don't think Trudeau would have contested the Liberal leadership, and I suspect whoever they chose wouldn't have been as charismatic as Layton. Jack combined the political and Parliamentary experience of Mulcair with the hope and optimism and love of country we see in Trudeau.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 2:55 PM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


And did all the stuff he transparently said he was going to do? It's not like we elected him and he became evil after the fact...it was all right there. Wasn't it?

Among other things, in opposition, Harper was a big advocate of transparency and minimalism in government. He railed against governments that managed and hid information, he complained about bills that were too complex to be studied adequately in committee. He wanted government to be a small as possible, to intrude in peoples' lives the least. Standard conservative mantras all.

He presided over a rapid expansion of government until about 2012, when he discovered (moderate, by the Chretien standard) cuts, all while yelling about cutting the fat (that he created).

While he complained about a 24-page "omnibus" bill in opposition, he brought forward a number of multi-hundred page bills, including one whopper over 800 pages long. These omnibus bills were quite far-reaching and have made enormous changes to Canada's ability to protect our environment, to manage our resources and deliver services.

He has mandated that federal public servants are not to talk with Canadians. As late as 2004, federal government employees, including scientists and also program officers were allowed to speak to the public directly, without approval. A post-contact report had to be filed, but, for the most part, there was a lot of latitude given. Reporters could fact-check and get deep background, kids could get help on their science projects, the public could get someone to explain whatever the heck was happening in their stream. The Harper government required that any communications be directed through a narrow window. Questions asked are answered by designated spokespeople and the answers are very highly massaged. In fact, now they're typically pre-approved, canned responses where possible. It's enormously time-consuming, 2 or even 4 week to a response is not uncommon, and generally amounts to a short paragraph of bland custard.

I believe a large part of this election was about the style and tone Harper brought to government, and the issues of the campaign, including the conservative focus on negative ads, the ethnic divisions, and so forth spoke to that. Trudeau's genius was figuring that out and offering an alternative that wasn't more politics as usual.
posted by bonehead at 2:56 PM on October 20, 2015 [18 favorites]


Trudeau was a teacher for like 2 years before he stopped and went to drop out of a couple of graduate programs. It would be straining things to call him a teacher at this point. In the same way that it was straining things to call Harper an economist.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:56 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


There is one small part of me who feels sad for the rare ugly-nerd-who-made-it being swept out of office by the PILF.

But don't tell my friends on Metafilter I said that...
posted by clawsoon at 3:02 PM on October 20, 2015


He did more teaching then just those two years in an actual school. I knew him during a few of those years, before I even knew exactly who he was and teaching and having a sincere love of working with people was a way I would describe him as a person then. He loved teaching, especially working with younger people. I've seen that aspect of him come out as he moved on and got into politics. That part of him does come from a sincere and genuine part of who he was before politics and before he said he wanted to get into politics.
posted by Jalliah at 3:08 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


I have a friend who has a selfie with Trudeau and it makes me oddly happy.

It's TRUDEAUMANIA, post-postmodern edition.
posted by sfenders at 3:13 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


22 Minutes says Goodbye Steve.
posted by clawsoon at 3:19 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


Finally plumped for Globe Unlimited and am reading Ian Brown's lengthy but so far excellent "In Search of the Real Justin Trudeau". Referring to Trudeau's apparently newsworthy hair:
"... He spends less than two minutes on it every morning, using whatever pomade Sophie has supplied. In other words, he does not spend as much time on his hair as Mr. Harper surely must to maintain his own Playmobil do..."

PLAYMOBIL. This subscription just paid for itself.
posted by hearthpig at 3:22 PM on October 20, 2015 [12 favorites]


Being from Alberta myself, it always bugs me when people say that Harper is from Alberta. He's as much of an Albertan as Ted Byfield; both of them, I think, were drawn West by a romantic image they had of Alberta, rather than the reality of the place

I mean, he moved there when he was 19 and was involved with politics in Alberta since 1985. I guess I'm not sure what you have to do to become a bona fide Albertan.
posted by Hoopo at 3:23 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


You ain't from around here if you ain't born here.
posted by ssg at 3:29 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


And even if you're born here, if you don't vote the right way, you ain't from around here.
posted by nubs at 3:32 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


Even most of the people who were born here weren't born "here," ifyouknowwhatImean.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:34 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


He's just not an Old Stock Albertan.
posted by clawsoon at 3:34 PM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]


I know it's just joking around, but I reckon it's a big part of being Canadian (the Canada many of us want, that has nearly been choked out in the last decade) not to give shit where people were born.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:37 PM on October 20, 2015 [7 favorites]


But back on track, Banknote of the year and bonehead have made some great suggestions about things that the Liberals need to immediately reform. I don't know if any Liberal insiders are reading MetaFilter - but if so, I hope they check out those posts.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:45 PM on October 20, 2015


Conservative support, in other words, has remained relatively steady

I'm hoping the reanimated corpse of Richard Nixon wins the the next CPC leadership, so we can see how many people still vote Conservative when even the most dimwitted voters are aware that the party leader is an unholy monster. Maybe down to 30%?
posted by sfenders at 3:46 PM on October 20, 2015


Ian Welsh: Consequences of the Canadian Liberal Majority
Justin Trudeau is going to feel good, for a while, compared to Harper. He will be better. He will repeal some of Harper’s worst policies. He will also not be an offensive creep, and that matters.

But he is, at the end of the day, a believer in the neo-liberal consensus. He will run a kinder neoliberalism, but it will still be neoliberalism. He is not particularly committed to civil liberties, he was not principled opposition to Harper’s worst excesses (that was Mulcair), and there is no particular reason to believe he will make any sort of radical break from Conservative policies: he voted for a great many of them.

The bottom line is this: Justin showed his character when he supported C51. Mulcair showed his character when went hard against it with polls showing a majority of Canadians for it (they later changed their mind, but he did what he did when it was unpopular).

I cannot find any great confidence in Trudeau, either as an ethical man, or as an economic leader.
posted by the man of twists and turns at 3:55 PM on October 20, 2015 [6 favorites]




I know it's just joking around, but I reckon it's a big part of being Canadian (the Canada many of us want, that has nearly been choked out in the last decade) not to give shit where people were born.

Absolutely, stav, and one of the things I'm dreading is a return to the old "East vs. West" media narratives, which I'm feeling are already stirring. I'm seeing some comments by Conservatives here in AB that Ontario "betrayed" them by not staying blue; I'm also picking up a vibe that Alberta somehow is dishonest by going Orange provincially but Conservative federally.

Fuck that, we're Canadians. I voted Liberal in a strong blue city; the provinces and regions of this country aren't monoliths, and I get tired of being talked about as if we are. The NDP won provincially in Alberta, and while it is easy to talk about that being the result of vote splits on the right, it also ignores and dismisses the fact that a great many of us voted for them as part of a desire for change and a different direction.

I voted Liberal last night as part of the same desire - for change, and not just for change from the last ten years, but also hope for change away from what our political discourse and structure was before that too. Western alienation was a force the Conservatives were able to mine for a long time; when they got to power they ignored us just as much as the Liberals did. The Cons took us for granted; the Liberals wrote us off.

I voted for the hope that we might just remember that we are all in this together, and that we all matter, and that we can't just dismiss any region of the country. But I did it with a pretty clear understanding that won't happen unless we don't give into the easy narratives and that we all stay engaged. And I did it with some pretty strong apprehension about Liberal policies on many topics.
posted by nubs at 4:02 PM on October 20, 2015 [9 favorites]




I'm in Peggy Nash's former district and am quite surprised to see her and Chow fall. I could not bring myself to vote "strategically" and went for the NDP. In fact, I had never heard off or ever saw a sign for any other candidates for any other party. Regardless, I did expect a Liberal majority but didn't expect to see the NDP fall so far. Seeing the usual nonsense and alarmism in reaction to the Conservatives not winning. As usual, it's business, money, and nasty focused.

As an aside, my barber is in Rob Ford's district and apparently he too gets his hair cut there. I have been fortunate enough to never be there at the same time he is.
posted by juiceCake at 4:15 PM on October 20, 2015


After how my riding went I will never be tempted to vote strategically ever again. They were so far off in my riding it was ridiculous.
posted by Hoopo at 4:19 PM on October 20, 2015


Wow nubs, that article echoes a lot of my own misgivings about our new PM. Personally, I'm waiting for Ben Mulroney to take him out (actually I'm not).
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 4:20 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm in Peggy Nash's former district and am quite surprised to see her and Chow fall.

Definitely surprising to see these two long-time MPs not get reelected.
posted by GuyZero at 4:24 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


We had a nail biter in our new riding of Kootenay-Columbia, which seemed such a hodge-podge of a riding. When I went to be last night, the Conservative was up by 190 votes.

The local radio station here even called it a win for the Conservative around midnight, but then it swung back by hundreds of votes with the last 5 polls to report in. It was the wildest sequence of swings I've ever seen in election results.

They were large polls, so clearly advance votes. It will be interesting to see the poll-by-poll results because I strongly suspect that Nelson and area voted overwhelmingly NDP and I'm certain that the Elk Valley and Cranbrook voted strongly Conservative (not so much the Columbia Valley).

I guess I'm glad that we have a NDP MP, but it makes me pretty sad to see the tactics he used (running entirely and brazenly on strategic anti-Harper voters rather than offering anything substantive) worked out. In the long term, I think this degrades Canadian democracy. We'll never get what we want if we just vote against someone.

Even though I feel better seeing my riding in orange, I can't see that one more NDP backbencher versus another Conservative backbencher makes much difference in the end. I'd rather have a real campaign where voters with their conscience and let the chips fall where they may.
posted by ssg at 4:31 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


"Especially foreigners," writes the American in a British newspaper.

Idea: Talk to a Canadian before writing an article about Canada.
posted by Sys Rq at 4:32 PM on October 20, 2015


Remember when they gave Obama a Nobel Prize for not being Bush? I wonder what Trudeau is going to get for not being Harper.
posted by benito.strauss at 4:33 PM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


I can't vouch for the accuracy, but this Vice piece on how we got here was useful for me because (as I mentioned earlier) I spent this whole election campaign (as a long-term expat without the right to vote) with my fingers in my ears in terror of the prospect of more Harperism.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:45 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm still deeply disappointed that Jerry Bance dropped out of the race. He is the hero that Canada needs.
posted by homunculus at 4:56 PM on October 20, 2015


I'm hoping the reanimated corpse of Richard Nixon wins the the next CPC leadership, so we can see how many people still vote Conservative when even the most dimwitted voters are aware that the party leader is an unholy monster. Maybe down to 30%?

Down? Heck I'd vote for the reanimated corpse of Richard Nixon, and I'm not event remotely a conservative. Or Canadian.
posted by xqwzts at 5:04 PM on October 20, 2015


reanimated corpse of Richard Nixon

You mean that's not what we had for the last 9 years?
posted by Ashwagandha at 5:06 PM on October 20, 2015


Man, there's a bunch of familiar names here... the "bench strength" of JT's caucus compared to the last bad bunch of bozos is pretty evident:

Trudeau’s cabinet choices include prominent women, veterans
posted by Nevin at 5:22 PM on October 20, 2015


Well, he hasn't chosen them yet. But there are a lot of possibilities.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:27 PM on October 20, 2015


That Guardian opinion piece nubs linked to is as lightweight as the writer is claiming Justin Trudeau is. She makes a lot of sweeping claims and offers no evidence to back them up.
posted by orange swan at 5:42 PM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


I have the sneaking suspicion that Justin Trudeau is going to start enjoying the same cult of personality that has enveloped Barack Obama...
posted by Nevin at 5:47 PM on October 20, 2015


You're right, orange swan. This piece in the Walrus from 2013 is much better.
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 5:48 PM on October 20, 2015


But after that hatred of Harper's campaign, this is pretty goddamn awesome.
posted by Nevin at 5:51 PM on October 20, 2015 [3 favorites]


Doug Ford vying for leadership of the Tories at either the provincial or federal level would be amusing. He'd get nowhere. Even most of the Conservatives would get that he's a dead end. I don't see the Fords as a real threat any more. Rob Ford is still a councillor, of course, and probably will be as long as he wants to be, but he won't get elected to anything else ever again, and Doug Ford isn't electable at all. They'll never understand that, as they think they're the Kennedys of Canada, but the truth is they're the Sarah Palin of Canada and are now merely a political side show rather than serious political contenders.
posted by orange swan at 5:54 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


ssg: "it makes me pretty sad to see the tactics he used (running entirely and brazenly on strategic anti-Harper voters rather than offering anything substantive) worked out. In the long term, I think this degrades Canadian democracy. We'll never get what we want if we just vote against someone."

I'm hoping that in the long term, the Liberals follow through on the electoral reform, and that makes such tactics less effective.
posted by RobotHero at 6:02 PM on October 20, 2015


I hope so too, but it really depends a lot on what type of electoral reform we get. The Liberals have never actually committed to any particular type of reform. It seems most likely that they will put forward some sort of ranked ballot or transferable vote system, based on the vague noises they've made on the issue (but I could well be wrong on this).

A ranked ballot is definitely better than FPTP and it will certainly be more representative. What it isn't is proportional and that means the NDP and the Greens are still likely to end up with fewer seats than their national vote merits.
posted by ssg at 6:43 PM on October 20, 2015


I'm in Peggy Nash's former district and am quite surprised to see her and Chow fall. I could not bring myself to vote "strategically" and went for the NDP. In fact, I had never heard off or ever saw a sign for any other candidates for any other party.

I saw little but orange signs from Cabbagetown to High Park too, yet people overwhelmingly voted Liberal. I'd guess that the signs were put up in the summer before the political landscape shifted. People kept the signs up - for one thing it's cooler, perhaps de rigeur, in downtown Toronto to be NDP rather than Liberal like your parents - but in the end cast their actual vote for the fuddy-duddy Liberals.
posted by Flashman at 7:42 PM on October 20, 2015


NDP MPs were very popular in Toronto, from Cash to Rathika. People put up signs. But generally most voted for the Liberals because they were the only ones who could beat Harper. It's probably not the people who put up signs that voted for Liberals. You're constructing an odd narrative bud.
posted by beau jackson at 7:55 PM on October 20, 2015


It makes me pretty sad to see the tactics [JT] used (running entirely and brazenly on strategic anti-Harper voters rather than offering anything substantive) worked out. In the long term, I think this degrades Canadian democracy. We'll never get what we want if we just vote against someone.

Other than the predictable chants of "lower taxes! balanced budget!" and fun with niqabs, the keystone of Harper's campaign was "He's not ready", and he started hammering that in the late spring. Trudeau simply had to campaign on "Yes, I am", then prove it in the debates... and he did.

Sometimes, getting rid of what you don't want is enough.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:56 PM on October 20, 2015 [2 favorites]


Oops, ssg, I didn't realize you were referring to your local NDP candidate, and not JT. My error, sorry.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:06 PM on October 20, 2015


It's interesting (if completely unscientific) to see which of the issues listed on the LPC website are picking up the most votes. Here's a ranking from the site earlier this evening:
  1. Marijuana
  2. Guns
  3. Electoral reform
  4. International students and temporary residents
  5. Middle class tax cut
  6. Helping families
  7. Ending unfair tax breaks
  8. Canada Post
  9. Science and scientists
  10. Post-secondary education
posted by scruss at 8:10 PM on October 20, 2015


Popping back in to note that I now have a Liberal MP in the middle of Calgary!
posted by arcticseal at 8:19 PM on October 20, 2015 [8 favorites]


it's cooler, perhaps de rigeur, in downtown Toronto to be NDP rather than Liberal like your parents - but in the end cast their actual vote for the fuddy-duddy Liberals.

My dad votes NDP, my grandparents campaigned for the CCF before they dropped the really socialist stuff from their platform - and when they were still lead by Tommy Douglas.

If I wanted to rebel, I'd have to go Tory. But I never will - my grandparents were right! (They also fought for racial integration in the 1960s. Man, they were cool.)
posted by jb at 8:21 PM on October 20, 2015 [4 favorites]


My massive orange sign was taken away by campaign elves some time this morning. The yard looks so empty now.
posted by maudlin at 8:30 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


If you are a parent with a minivan, campaign sign removal elf is an excellent job to volunteer for. It's zero stress, nobody else wants to do it because all the exciting parts are over, and you can take your toddlers along who will consider it reasonable entertainment to drive around strange parts of the city looking for orange signs, shouting "OWANGE!" and stopping to steal signs. Plus you can stack an immense number of them in the minivan. Your local party will be supremely grateful since nobody likes the job. Except weirdos like me.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:00 PM on October 20, 2015 [31 favorites]


Oof, Orange Pamplemousse :/ Yeah, I mean, I hope he reigns in the hamminess a bit. The boxing was tackier than anything else, imo, and I personally thought he could have found a more appropriate time to announce his political aspirations than his father's funeral. (That was long ago, now; it just really, really rubbed me the wrong way). I hope he doesn't allow himself to go off-script for at least the first year or so.

But, he's generally espousing the right values (and I don't care whether that's because he borrowed them, or they're tactical, or whatever). And with a majority - and perhaps the wish for it to survive this government - maybe he'll act on them. We have to give him a chance. (Obviously, we have to.)
posted by cotton dress sock at 10:01 PM on October 20, 2015 [1 favorite]


The Con in my riding put up the most half-hearted campaign (a runner dropped one - one! - single-sheet flyer in my mailbox all campaign) but boy did he get his signs taken down quick. All the rest are mostly still up, but blue signs vanished Tuesday morning. It's the only evidence of organization I've seen from them this election.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:27 AM on October 21, 2015


On the website of the Star, the byline "US Googles Trudeau, ogles at pics of him shirtless" really tells you all you need to know about my home country and their knowledge of Canadian politics.
posted by Kitteh at 6:41 AM on October 21, 2015 [3 favorites]


While I'm as guilty as anyone of the initial reaction "wow he's kind of... hot?," I have to say - the reason this has resonated so much with me and other Americans is because it gives us hope for ourselves. We can look at you guys and fantasize that someday, we too might be able to elect a young goofball liberal feminist schoolteacher who takes climate change seriously and wants to end the drug war, and has enough of a mandate to actually do those things. (I mean, I know he isn't perfect, but have you looked at what we're working with these days?)

That's the real fantasy. We don't want to bang Trudeau. We want to elect him.
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:14 AM on October 21, 2015 [15 favorites]


I'm not particularly attracted to Trudeau, sexually speaking, but if he can end the drug war in Canada, get to work on Indigenous rights, start doing SOMETHING about climate change, and get us the fuck out of the Middle East, then I will give him unrestricted access to any of my orifices he desires.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:20 AM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]


> On the website of the Star, the byline "US Googles Trudeau, ogles at pics of him shirtless" really tells you all you need to know about my home country and their knowledge of Canadian politics.

I think that's telling you something about the Star, not about any country.
posted by benito.strauss at 7:35 AM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]


I mean, it's inevitable that spin doctoring will take hold, but this is at least a refreshing change:

This is odd. There's a prime minister taking questions in the National Press Theatre with a journalist chairing.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:38 AM on October 21, 2015 [12 favorites]


Maybe, but given the reactions I saw last night on my FB feed, it's not too off the mark.
posted by Kitteh at 7:39 AM on October 21, 2015


When a press conference in which journalists are able to ask and get questions answered is a novelty, it's a testament how bad things had gotten.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:43 AM on October 21, 2015 [10 favorites]


I'm not particularly attracted to Trudeau, sexually speaking, but if he can end the drug war in Canada, get to work on Indigenous rights, start doing SOMETHING about climate change, and get us the fuck out of the Middle East, then I will give him unrestricted access to any of my orifices he desires.

You know, it's a goddamn national tragedy that this campaign ad never aired.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:45 AM on October 21, 2015 [12 favorites]


When a press conference in which journalists are able to ask and get questions answered is a novelty, it's a testament how bad things had gotten.

I'm hearing he may actually get the First Minister's meetings happening again too. So yeah, it's a reminder of how fucked up we've been that basic, fundamental things like meeting with other elected Canadian leaders to discuss issues and being available to the press are notable events.

Fuck me, at times it does feel like waking from a nightmare.
posted by nubs at 8:21 AM on October 21, 2015 [14 favorites]


@ssg, I'm in Nelson, and I think I saw one sign for Wilks on someone's lawn, with a ton of NDP/Lib/and Green. The last ballots must have been from around here, which makes sense, since we're in a different timezone than a lot of the rest of the riding.

Personally, I'm happy that we have someone that will represent the political leanings of this area, and Wayne Stetski seems like a pretty good guy (although I think you could say that about all the candidates). I'm also happy that someone who voted for all those terrible terrible bills over the last 4 years is gone. If I had known the outcome of the election beforehand, I probably would have voted for someone else, but I did put an X next to "Guy most likely to defeat the Conservative". It also didn't help that Wilks' last ditch ad talked about upgrading the TransCanada, which has about as much impact on us as the Confederate Bridge.

I understand what you're saying, and I too hope for some sort of proportional representation (although STV would be a step up as well, and wouldn't require a constitutional amendment - I think). I would love to be able to vote for the person that aligns closest to my interests, with a backup just in case.

As for the riding, it just doesn't make sense. It lumps us in with Creston, Cranbrook and the rest of the East Kootenays, and separates us from all the people we actually interact with on a day to day basis, like the Slocan Valley and Castlegar. I work with a guy who has a 20 minute drive from the office who is in a different riding.
posted by sauril at 8:52 AM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


> On the website of the Star, the byline "US Googles Trudeau, ogles at pics of him shirtless" really tells you all you need to know about my home country and their knowledge of Canadian politics.


Hey now, don't forget I knew a lot about Rob Ford too once upon a time.
posted by MCMikeNamara at 9:29 AM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]


Don't worry, I'm sure the Tale Of Rob Ford has additional chapters yet to be written.
posted by The Card Cheat at 9:50 AM on October 21, 2015


Surely, it ends in a drug-fueled heart attack in a brothel?
posted by Chrysostom at 10:09 AM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


Damn Liberals and their mandatory visits to cannabis brothels.
posted by ODiV at 10:17 AM on October 21, 2015 [3 favorites]


I'm mad there isn't even ONE underage cannabis brothel in my town yet!!!! Come ON!
posted by sauril at 10:25 AM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


I can't be the only one who just googled "rob ford shirtless".

Right?

Please, someone?
posted by frimble at 10:35 AM on October 21, 2015




MetaFilter: unrestricted access to any of my orifices.
posted by homunculus at 11:05 AM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm profoundly creeped out by the idea of a total stranger yelling "We love you!" at Stephen Harper.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:06 AM on October 21, 2015 [3 favorites]


I'm mad there isn't even ONE underage cannabis brothel in my town yet!!!! Come ON!

Hey, you just told us you voted for the candidate who was, inexplicably, against legalization (which, if we are going to be realistic about Nelson is probably a good thing economically, as I'm sure the Nelson economy is going to take a hit once the Liberals legalize it).
posted by ssg at 11:25 AM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


CBC has dug into some of the demographics of the results, including some data at the riding levels.
posted by nubs at 11:34 AM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]


I know :) It was a strategic vote. He was the only one in shouting distance of Wilks, do an anti-legalization candidate was going to win one way or another.

Here's what the Liberal candidate said after the results.

As for the effect on the economy - I'm not involved in it myself, but I'd imagine that Washington making it legal was the real hit, so to speak.
posted by sauril at 11:40 AM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


So exactly how much power can Stephen Harper wield while he's still technically PM?
posted by peppermind at 11:55 AM on October 21, 2015


Today I banged out an email to our new Liberal MP-elect, congratulating him for his win, then listing out the policy promises I most wanted to see enacted ASAP.

Please, fellow Canadians, while the elation lingers, write your re-elected/new MP and tell them what you want them to act on. Let's lean on them to make the honeymoon as productive as possible, and maybe this will create positive momentum to keep it going.
posted by Artful Codger at 12:21 PM on October 21, 2015 [6 favorites]


I've been thinking about how to approach this, and I think I'm just going to take that list from the CHRC I posted upthread and harangue my newly-elected Liberal MP about one of them each week. When I get to the end of the list, I'm going to rinse and repeat.

Should I bump into my MP in public anywhere, I will most certainly get all up in his grill about what this new government is going to do about missing and murdered indigenous women.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:25 PM on October 21, 2015 [4 favorites]


There's a graph on the CBC demographics page that nubs linked to which sorts riding results by median income. The top is blue and red; the bottom is orange and red. This might suggest that the NDP hasn't actually lost its core "working poor" voters, as I and others suggested upthread.

(The richest riding to vote for the NDP was in Saskatchewan, as it happens.)
posted by clawsoon at 12:39 PM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


Just found more bizarro world tweets from Michael Coren. Tweets like this always make me think he's been hacked.

I mean, he's apologizing for things he said aboout a just-elected MP, back when he was on Sun News. All snark aside, it's nice to see.

But man, it still seems weird.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:52 PM on October 21, 2015


Anyways, been trying to find the video clip of Craig Oliver's little rant moment from election night. It's on YouTube, but not great quality, if anyone wants to hear it.

Not one of Craig's finer moments, in my opinion. But it's rare to hear a professional reporter who has covered politics that long go off like that.
posted by nubs at 2:17 PM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


it's a reminder of how fucked up we've been that basic, fundamental things like meeting with other elected Canadian leaders to discuss issues and being available to the press are notable events.

Yep. One of the worst things about the Harper years was how blatantly contemptuous he was for our political institutions, traditions and principles. And that some people seemed to think that's what effective government is. I think I'm though sulking about the NDP. I don't even have to expect much from Trudeau for this election to be a sign of redemption for this country.
posted by Hoopo at 3:10 PM on October 21, 2015 [5 favorites]


Oh, to be a fly on the wall at this meeting:

Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper meet as transition begins.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:22 PM on October 21, 2015




That's the thing, eh? This, in addition to being an ideological shift in how we're governed, is also a generational shift.

I wouldn't remotely characterize the Liberals as "socialist," but there's going to be a significant difference between a PM who values the legacy of the Charter vs. one who, at best, looked askance at it.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:00 PM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


The idea that the Liberals are socialist is pretty ridiculous. Chretien and Martin reduced the size of the federal government, shoving various responsibilities onto the provinces and municipalities. It seems as though Trudeau has not embraced neoliberalism for now, although spending an extra $10B a year as part of an annual $290B budget is hardly Keynesian-ism gone wild.
posted by Nevin at 6:09 PM on October 21, 2015 [1 favorite]


The idea that the Liberals are socialist is pretty ridiculous.

Certainly. But I think the assertion from the article is that Canadian values are traditionally socialist in the not-political senses of the word.

Also, here's a pretty good interview with Trudeau from Monday, specifically on women's issues. Heartening to hear the (now) PM talking the way he does.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 6:43 PM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]




Harper learns the folly of surrounding himself with obsequious operatives:

Staff who didn’t fall in line with talking points and [Kory] Teneckye’s worldview were also in his sights. He hatched a plan to fire 40 to 50 percent of the Sun News staff, many of whom he suspected were Liberal sympathizers. The house-cleaning was to take place after the CRTC approved the network’s application for a mandatory carriage license, an event that never came to pass. Teneycke’s plans included populating the newsroom with even more Conservative staffers. “You can’t teach a producer how to be a Conservative. But you can teach a Conservative how to produce,” he told me.

Evidently, there were some Conservatives who couldn’t be taught. Former Harper speechwriter Michael Taube was a valued contributor who regularly appeared on the network. Taube’s record of criticizing some of the Harper government’s policies such as income splitting did not gain him favour with Teneycke. Producers were ordered to stop booking Taube on our program.

Even the apolitical was viewed through a partisan lens. Case in point, the network’s coverage of the RCMP’s 2012 investigation of the suicide of 15-year-old Amanda Todd. Teneycke told producers that Sun News was not going to continue to cover the story and, “help create another dead celebrity teen,” while assisting the Official Opposition with its proposed anti-bullying legislation.

I was not immune from Teneycke’s tyrannical flashes and paranoia. In June of that year, one of his sycophants was listening through the walls of my office as I shared my concerns with my husband over the phone. Teneycke’s incendiary rebuke came swiftly. “This is not the CBC,” he told me. “You will not be afforded due process or an arbitration hearing. If you don’t change your attitude and quickly, it will not end well for you. Do you understand me?” I began planning my departure shortly thereafter.

[...]

If there was any doubt of the proximity of the late Sun News to the Conservative power structure, Teneycke’s homecoming surely put those doubts to rest. But his appointment was one of many missteps in an ill-fated re-election campaign. It was bad policy for the Conservative leader to surround himself with obsequious operatives who appealed to his worst instincts. “This is not just about the prime minister but obviously the Prime Minister’s Office absorbed and reflected his combative approach, ” outgoing Defence minister Jason Kenney conceded after the party’s defeat. Without a newsroom or a war room to launch hyper-zealous missives from, it may be Kory Teneycke who is caught with his pants down.

posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:38 PM on October 21, 2015 [6 favorites]


And curiously, the piece I linked to above, by Krista Erickson, is now a 404 at its original URL, hence the archived link.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:44 PM on October 21, 2015


Is it too much to ask, is it churlish or unseemly, to want him called to account for hiding his government beyond a curtain, the Robocalls (not enough evidence, they said, and there was a patsy anyway), the abuse of prorogation, all of it? Any of it?
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:22 PM on October 21, 2015


He's done morally wrong and borderline illegal things, I feel like this trouncing is not enough.
posted by cotton dress sock at 10:54 PM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]


I think the calculus there is probably "how do we sell this to the public in a non-spinnable way?" Imagine how much political capital Harper and the Tories would have if they could spin any prosecution/commission/investigation as them being martyred, or worse, a failed prosecution 'exonerating' them?

It might, and it galls me, be better in the long run to just let them fade quietly away. Then in like five years, announce a commission or something. Nobody pays attention, the facts are officially recorded, no consequences for anyone.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 11:09 PM on October 21, 2015 [2 favorites]


Trudeau ran on a positive message and talked about the "sunny ways" in his acceptance speech. I would hope he focuses on improving the country rather than spend his time trying to punish Harper.
posted by Gary at 11:15 PM on October 21, 2015 [4 favorites]


he can do both.
posted by Fraxas at 1:45 AM on October 22, 2015


Punishing Harper may help improve the country. He was horrible for open, public science in Canada — and bad for Canadian scientists altogether. He pandered to racism and supported crack-addicted misogynists who pandered in their own way to the dregs. Nowhere to go from here but up.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:10 AM on October 22, 2015


I'm willing to bet that sooner or later an insider from Team Harper is going to tire of wandering the political wilderness and negotiate a book deal and spill the beans on some shenanigans. Somebody's going to dish on where the bodies are buried.

Also, since the Harper GovernmentTM was keen on obstructing or delaying FOI requests, one smart tack for Trudeau to take would just be to loosen things up and let the information out when it's requested. The truth will out, sunlight is the best disinfectant, etc.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:57 AM on October 22, 2015 [4 favorites]


That Coyne column... he pretty much nails it.

The tv tumour that was SUN News has died, but most of the metastases have coalesced here [warning - the comments will really make you hate some Canadians]

The best result for Canada would be for the current Conservative party to split back into a more mainstream Canadian (aka 'progressive') conservative party, and the extreme right ("toxic Tories") can scurry back under the baseboards from whence they came.
posted by Artful Codger at 6:21 AM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


ATIPs (what the US calls FOI requests) are a super shitty way to have to get info though. They're very expensive (for anything more than 60 pages) and take a long time. It's much better to have a policy of proactive disclosure where possible and, AND, a decent website that makes that information discoverable. A huge number of ATIP requests are answered fully by documents and reports which are already public, especially for those that aren't put in by journalists.
posted by bonehead at 6:23 AM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


what the US calls FOI requests

...and some provinces! :)

I was getting my jurisdictions bass-ackwards.

But argument there. It's just that improvements to access to information like the ones proposed by the Office of the Information Commissioner might see the light of day.

In particular:

...a series of criteria to extend the coverage of the Access to Information Act (Act) to, for example, institutions that perform a public function or that are controlled or funded, in whole or in part, by the government. The Information Commissioner also recommends that specific institutions be covered by the Act. These are: the Prime Minister’s and Ministers’ offices, institutions that support Parliament and institutions that provide administrative support to the courts.

The PMO. Fancy that.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:59 AM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]


Desmond Cole: We ought to be a country committed to anti-racism, but doing so would mean fully acknowledging the living legacy of our racist history. Instead, Canadians naively and defensively insist we are not racist, and skate past every opportunity to explore why racism and xenophobia are still so good at dividing us.
posted by frimble at 7:02 AM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


* no * argument there.

Carry on.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:16 AM on October 22, 2015


So when Harper was teenager and he saw M*A*S*H he must have found a role model in the character of Frank Burns. It's sad that this model got him the years in office it did, but I'm happy this model isn't quite as successful as it seems to be in the States, though at the Presidential level that has changed, making conservatives even more insane. I wonder if the hatred, bigotry, idiocy, and insanity will only increase as a result of the Liberal majority.
posted by juiceCake at 7:26 AM on October 22, 2015


Does that make Conrad Black's role model Charles Winchester III?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:11 AM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]


Yeah, I can see how punishing him would be a poor use of time and incoherent with "sunny ways" and moving forward, etc. He harmed our country, though, he did.

It would be good if we could get a crack team of legislators to help patch up at least some of the holes he weaseled through, to make his use of those technicalities and grey areas, which we've so far had to call merely "contempt" and "blatant disregard" for democratic transparency (the backroom bullshit, the abuse of normal rules of governance, ramming those Omnibus bills through, the defunding of whole streams of programs with no defensible rationale or mechanism for response, etc etc etc etc etc etc) clearly illegal.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:18 AM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


The Coyne column that Artful Dodger linked to - "MPs who were willing to say the opposite of what they believed, or believe the opposite of the facts, were promoted; those who were not found themselves out of the cabinet, or indeed out of the party" - reminds me of Garth Turner's story about getting kicked out of the Conservative caucus in 2006:
It’s a day etched in my memory. The prime minister called me into his office on the third floor of Centre Block, with the big wooden door guarded by two beefy guys with wires in their ears.

He said a few things that pissed me off, so I got up to leave. He ordered me to sit. Like a poodle. Then this: You were a journalist, he continued. Journalists make lousy politicians. They think they always have to tell the truth.

And that was the moment I knew this was going nowhere. So I left. A few weeks later my derriere was punted from the Conservative party, even thought I’d been elected a Con MP. The PM sent his caucus chairman out to tell the media it was because I had blogged about matters the public had no right to know. (By the way, that guy was later arrested by the OPP with drugs in his vehicle.)
posted by clawsoon at 8:34 AM on October 22, 2015 [6 favorites]


that guy was later arrested by the OPP with drugs in his vehicle

That's gotta be Rahim Jaffer, but somehow it would be less than shocking to me if there was more than one such incident within the Conservative ranks.
posted by Hoopo at 9:30 AM on October 22, 2015


The CBC feed is showing a Liberal lead in all 5 seats from Newfoundland and Labrador. Extrapolating from these figures, I think we can expect a landslide 100% Liberal majority.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:21 PM on October 19 [11 favorites +] [!]


Good job, mrjohnmuller. You nailed it.
posted by Theta States at 9:53 AM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


Oh, man. The whole Rahim Jaffer thing drunk driving and cocaine thing. Garth Turner's exile. This has been such a long and disturbing journey that sometimes you forget about all the things that happened.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:05 AM on October 22, 2015 [2 favorites]


Yeah I forgot about Turner too. And the less I remember about Rahim Jaffer the better as far as I'm concerned.
posted by sauril at 10:08 AM on October 22, 2015


Is it bad if I couldn't remember if it was the Jaffer-Gurgis powercouple or the Soudas-Adams one? They all seem to blur together as a mass of shouldpads, sweaty skin and hair plugs.
posted by bonehead at 10:46 AM on October 22, 2015


Turner has spent the last seven years predicting a collapse in Canadian housing prices. Any day now!
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:43 PM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


Is it bad if I couldn't remember if it was the Jaffer-Gurgis powercouple or the Soudas-Adams one? They all seem to blur together as a mass of shouldpads, sweaty skin and hair plugs.

This is like going through vacation photos on a trip where only bad stuff happened:

Here's me with my head in the toilet because of food poisoning!

Here's my surprised face when I realize I was just pickpocketed for my wallet and passport on the Paris Metro!

Here's the indifferent Paris cop we reported it to!

Here we are sleeping in the airport because we got bumped from our flight!

Here's the guy who was kicking the back of my seat on the plane for seven solid hours on the way back to Canada!
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:10 PM on October 22, 2015 [4 favorites]


Just found more bizarro world tweets from Michael Coren.

When did that happen? I mean I like it and mostly agree with his new political stance, but it's like a Scrooge on Christmas morning transformation.
And the hateful backlash he's getting from the Christian right is scary. Not unexpected, but scary.
posted by rocket88 at 3:03 PM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


"The best result for Canada would be for the current Conservative party to split back into a more mainstream Canadian (aka 'progressive') conservative party, and the extreme right ("toxic Tories") can scurry back under the baseboards from whence they came."

So basically undo all the evolution they've gone through in the 21st century. But they can't do that, because it would lead to electoral doom. They need the extreme right voters for the same reason the Republicans down south need the Tea Party - a credible alternate party on the right would split the vote.

The Conservatives need to spend some time thinking about what happened, and why it happened (the Coyne opinion piece is a great start on that), then figure out a way to change. They have to represent true conservative values that are moderate enough for average Canadians to accept, without alienating their existing base.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:36 PM on October 22, 2015


A post-election long read.

Paul Wells: The making of a prime minister

Both Trudeau and Mulcair argued that something is lost when the national government throws off too many of its longstanding functions. Both sought to rehabilitate a belief that taxes are often worth paying, because government can be an agent for positive change. But Mulcair wanted to win the top job by soothing the skittish next voter who had never supported his party. It made him cautious, and made his ideas cautious. Trudeau wanted to move more quickly, to put activist government higher on his list of priorities than balanced budgets. Harper told him he couldn’t do it. He said he’d do it anyway. Voters got to decide. This is what a battle of ideas actually looks like.
posted by nubs at 3:52 PM on October 22, 2015 [6 favorites]


So basically undo all the evolution they've gone through in the 21st century. But they can't do that, because it would lead to electoral doom. They need the extreme right voters for the same reason the Republicans down south need the Tea Party - a credible alternate party on the right would split the vote.

I'd argue the Reform movement that gave the Harper government its hard edge is dead and buried now.

The 1980's of the NEP and Meech Lake and Quebec referenda are gone (for the time being).

The West is no longer "alienated". It has been a core part of the power structure for the past ten years. On the issue of pipelines the West is divided: BC doesn't want Northern Gateway, and Vancouver doesn't want Kinder Morgan.

If anything the "reformist" movement in Canadian conservatism seems to be, for the time being, headed by women.

Conservative MP Michelle Rempel sent out a pretty remarkable series of Tweets yesterday basically explaining how women are typically shut out of politics.

While a lot of the prominent Tory male MP's were either defeated or left politics for the time being, there are an awful lot of talented women who remain, like Rempel, Diane Watts and Rona Ambrose (a fellow UVic alumni).

I predict that we're going to see a lot more women being active in the Conservative Party.

Something I haven't seen discussed really is how Trudeau must have appealed to women, and I don't mean his looks or his charisma, but that the Trudeau Liberals must have seemed like a party that is genuinely friendly towards women.
posted by Nevin at 4:06 PM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]


They have to represent true conservative values that are moderate enough for average Canadians to accept, without alienating their existing base.

Is this even possible though? Some of that base is pretty fringey.
posted by Hoopo at 4:27 PM on October 22, 2015


Rempel was my MP, until the districts got redrawn and I wound up in a brand new one. What I found interesting was that as soon as that happened, we stopped getting any mail from our MP. Normally we'd get a "newsletter" once a quarter or so, and the occassional flyer or other thing about an event. As soon as the boundaries got redrawn, nothing. Like we didn't have a representative anymore...

Anyways, I digress. She had been involved with the local riding association for years and then became the candidate when the previous one (Jim Prentice) stepped down to lead the provincial party off a cliff. So I kind of viewed her rise with a lot of cynicism, of it being backroom politics as usual and her being rewarded for her years of party work with a very safe Conservative seat in Calgary. But while she was my MP, I followed her on Twitter, and she often had some interesting things to say about the role of women in politics and how women in politics were often sidelined or demeaned or belittled. I was intrigued and interested, because while I disagreed with a lot of things she stood for alongside the Conservatives, Twitter seemed to be a place where she was expressing something different and I often agreed with her stance in terms of politics needing a lot more diversity and then not treating politicians who weren't white males as tokens to bolster party image.

So I'd read these interesting tweets on the place of women in politics, and then watch Question Period and see how she and Ms. Ambrose had been strategically seated so that they would be Mr. Harper's backdrop for the camera when he rose. And there she would sit and nod her head and thump her desk and clap for whatever Harper said, and I'm left with wondering how she managed to deal with what appeared to be a bit of a disconnect between her personal thoughts and desires and the party she was in. Like, she had the Conservative values, but she always appeared to be too much of a free thinker and have a bit too much of an independent streak to be fully comfortable in Harper's structure. But she did get a cabinet post, so maybe there wasn't the friction there that I assume.

So I'd be interested to see her step out a little more and get engaged at a higher level, because I'd like to see what she might bring to the table and understand her perspectives better.
posted by nubs at 4:28 PM on October 22, 2015 [3 favorites]


Sophie Gregoire is pretty active in feminist causes, and Justin Trudeau has said he'd whip any votes on abortion, so I think this government is likely to be good on women's issues in general. People are tracking his campaign promises, which will be interesting to watch
posted by jeather at 4:34 PM on October 22, 2015 [5 favorites]


So I'd read these interesting tweets on the place of women in politics, and then watch Question Period

Alberta MP Ron Liepert (who in a riding nomination battle defeated probably the most toxic member of the Harper Conservatives, Rob Anders) also has spoken out about the dismal nature of the Conservative campaign.

Some of the commenters suggest he would be more at home on the Liberal side of the floor - he had always supported Alison Redford anyway.

Anyway, hopefully (if you're a centrist like me) there will be a more centrist element to the Conservative Party going forward.
posted by Nevin at 4:42 PM on October 22, 2015


I don't know how to define the centre anymore, but what I would like is a Conservative Party that appears to motivated by more than cynicism and a desperate desire to either gain or retain power.

Actually, I'd like that in all parties.
posted by nubs at 6:34 PM on October 22, 2015 [1 favorite]




Wow, that Wells piece nubs linked is snide as hell about Trudeau and sycophantic towards Harper. He starts with paragraphs and paragraphs about how terrible Trudeau's acceptance speech was, and I'm half way through and the only positive thing he's said about him is that he 'takes direction well', while Harper is 'methodical', 'calm reasoning', has 'good ideas', is 'intellectually influential', etc, etc.

Trudeau works hard in prepping for the debates, but his good performances aren't because he's well prepared, he's just a pre-programmed robot:

"Reams of briefing material had been winnowed down, progressively, in hundreds of drafts, until they were only lists of keywords that triggered prepared speeches in the Liberal leader’s mind. "

And look at this special-snowflake pleading:

"Harper had pushed the books back into the red in 2009, under duress and only to sap the legitimacy of the Liberal-NDP coalition that had tried to supplant him. "

He's just a victim, you guise! He totally had to run deficits against his will! They made him do it because they were trying to overthrow the rightful king! And later we have:

"the deficits he’d run since 2009, but which he had worked diligently to eliminate"

Six years of deficits were beyond his control, he was working hard to save the country from them! He's totally not a hypocrite who claims deficits are bad and yet runs them for partisan political reasons.

Going by the Woodward scale, where you can determine from who is getting the biggest tongue-bath who the sources were, I'm pretty sure this was primarily sourced from Kory Teneycke and other Harper campaign members and that he was nearly entirely frozen out from the core Trudeau campaign people, and had to rely on outlying Liberal members for his sourcing, including some of Wynne's people. At least, I find it hard to believe that a Liberal premier supporting a Liberal PM candidate was in fact the huge surprise and determining factor he tries to sell it as.

And I'm guessing it's also the result of a reporter who had spent ages cultivating sources in the Tory campaign and is thoroughly sullen that he didn't get to write the inside story of how the Tories triumphed again. I suspect Trudeau judged rightly in not trusting the Macleans debate.
posted by tavella at 9:00 PM on October 22, 2015 [7 favorites]


Is this even possible though? Some of that base is pretty fringey.

Some of them sure are. I don't know if it's possible to strike that kind of balance, but it's what modern conservative movements need to do if they want to get elected. The Republicans cave in completely to whichever part of their base is speaking loudest at the moment (with money almost always the loudest voice), while the Harper Conservatives kept it together by giving the base small victories (like census forms and gun registries) and relying upon their image to bring in less committed voters who wanted to be associated with the winning team. But that didn't last forever. Now the Conservatives need to find something new.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:32 PM on October 22, 2015


I want there to be a (possibly Progressive) Conservative party in Canada. I'd never vote for them, ever -- fucking ever.

But I want there to be a variety of choices and political options and fruitful contention and all of that. I want a quote-unquote right-wing choice for Canadians who lean that way that is legitimately Conservative, politically, and is ethical and eager to contend and let the best ideas win, wants the best for the nation rather than seeking to win and consolidate power at any cost and impose its ideological agendas. I think good-faith dispute makes the polity stronger.

What I don't want is Harperism, which is and was soft fascism. I hope that the shithouse party that Harper sewed together gets renovated, in the face of this resounding rejection, into a party that no longer wants to create a country (as Harper said in 2009, I think) that Canadians won't recognize.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 2:10 AM on October 23, 2015 [3 favorites]


Where was all this shit about "sunnier conservatism" when times were good, Jason Kenney? Fuck you.

I hope the Conservative Party of Canada tears itself apart in a civil war and, like others here have said, the end result is a small-c conservative party of ideas instead of the diseased entity the Harper Conservatives became.
posted by The Card Cheat at 3:03 AM on October 23, 2015


Absolutely the best result would be for the Conservatives to split back into two (or more) parties, one of which would be a little like the old Progressive Conservatives, and one of which could invite the raving hatemongers and thugs and dullards.

Because that's been the horror of the last Canuck decade -- that Harper successfully consolidated the genuine considered conservatives and the horrifying American-style haters into an ad-hoc bullshit coalition. But conservative Canadians, even the most righty-tighty, I want to believe, would coalesce quickly around a rightish party that reflected their values but wasn't fucking Harpery evil. And honest substantive debate could resume.

Probably ain't gonna happen. But I have new hopes.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 3:39 AM on October 23, 2015 [1 favorite]


Because that's been the horror of the last Canuck decade -- that Harper successfully consolidated the genuine considered conservatives and the horrifying American-style haters into an ad-hoc bullshit coalition. But conservative Canadians, even the most righty-tighty, I want to believe, would coalesce quickly around a rightish party that reflected their values but wasn't fucking Harpery evil. And honest substantive debate could resume.

I don't see that happening unless the leadership race somehow becomes some scorched earth campaign, but really I don't think they have the gusto right now.


Onwards to holding Trudeau's feet to the fire in getting policy changed!
posted by Theta States at 7:05 AM on October 23, 2015


There's a strong case to be made - and even Harper made it - that conservatives after Sir John A. have only won in Canada by stitching together temporary oddball coalitions. Typically, they involve Western populists, Bay Street finance, and Quebec nationalists. That's an unstable mix, a giant radioactive nucleus with a half-life of 4-8 years. The last conservative explosion - after 8 years of Mulroney's rule - created the Bloc and Reform.

The kinder, gentler, small-c conservatives are too spread out to get many seats in first-past-the-post, even though I suspect they could consistently get NDP levels of the overall popular vote.
posted by clawsoon at 7:05 AM on October 23, 2015 [2 favorites]




There's a strong case to be made - and even Harper made it - that conservatives after Sir John A. have only won in Canada by stitching together temporary oddball coalitions.

Apologies for repetition but I have started re-reading John Duffy's "Fights of Our Lives" (ref post from me above) and this fact is explicitly dissected for several elections. In fact the argument is made for SJAM his whisky drinking self.

Seriously guys, it's a great book. I am sad to discover Duffy has not written any more so he can focus on being a paid politico.
posted by hearthpig at 7:14 AM on October 23, 2015 [1 favorite]


Justin Trudeau may delay moving into 24 Sussex for long-needed repairs

“Twenty-four Sussex is in need – has been in need since I was there 40 years ago – of major infrastructure repair, and it simply hasn’t been done,” --- Margaret Sinclair

There are no metaphors to be found here.
posted by bonehead at 9:16 AM on October 23, 2015 [9 favorites]


So, I was going to make an Aline Chretien/soapstone carving joke here (like, as part of the renos, they should dedicate an alcove to her with a portrait and some soapstone carvings), but as I was researching the timeline of that break-in at 24 Sussex, I came across this:

2000

Oct. 13: A protester jumps on stage with Canadian Alliance leader Stockwell Day in Moose Jaw, Sask., and tries to set fire to the party’s platform document.


It seemed like such an innocent time, before the scourge of what that platform document would later become.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:30 AM on October 23, 2015


And I'm guessing it's also the result of a reporter who had spent ages cultivating sources in the Tory campaign

Paul Wells, the author of the piece, is the political editor for Maclean's. This quote: "Trudeau aides grumbled around Ottawa that the event’s moderator had even written two books about Harper" is Wells referencing himself. So Wells did have/does have some pretty solid connections into the Harper camp and might well have some biases. If you follow him on Twitter, you'll also see him regularly accused of being a Liberal.

*shrug* take it for what it is worth, I guess; this is just me putting some context around who the author of that mammoth piece is (which I likely should have done in the first place), not trying to defend it in terms of who it favours or who it dismisses. I found it an interesting read with some insight into how the campaigns were organized and how decisions were made at a high level.
posted by nubs at 9:44 AM on October 23, 2015 [1 favorite]


Michelle Rempel's tweets, which Nevin linked to above.
posted by clawsoon at 9:51 AM on October 23, 2015


this is just me putting some context around who the author of that mammoth piece is (which I likely should have done in the first place), not trying to defend it in terms of who it favours or who it dismisses. I found it an interesting read with some insight into how the campaigns were organized and how decisions were made at a high level.

That's how I took it. It was a fascinating piece. As somebody who experiences blackout rages when thinking about the Conservatives, I've never read Paul Wells as a Conservative sycophant.

I read this passage that tavella mentioned re: Harper as rather sarcastic:

"the deficits he’d run since 2009, but which he had worked diligently to eliminate"

YMMV.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:54 AM on October 23, 2015


I think there are three main groups within the Conservative party. There's the western rural Reform Party group, the traditional Progressive Conservative group of (Toronto's) Bay Street financiers, and then there are the "Toronto Sun conservatives" (although the Sun has now spread nationwide). This group may be the worst because they are the largest in terms of votes. They're the Canadian version of Fox News Republicans without the religion angle.
They come from the suburban and semi-rural working class and middle class, mostly of below-average education. They would personally benefit the least from Conservative governments but are convinced otherwise. They totally believe in the low-tax message and the lazy-welfare-queen and evil-Muslim-terrorist stereotype images they've been sold. They ignore evidence, distrust experts, and mainly vote against things they've learned to hate rather than for things that would actually do good.
And they cling fiercely to their conservative (actually anti-liberal and anti-socialist) allegiance. They treat their political identity not unlike their sports team support. Like Maple Leafs fans, they will never waver on their conservative fandom no matter how horribly their team (Harper, Rob Ford, etc.) performs.
By number, they're about 25-30 percent of Canadian voters, which is huge.
posted by rocket88 at 11:05 AM on October 23, 2015 [6 favorites]


Here's Doug Ford's two cents. I tried reading it, but the words just registered in my head as a bunch of fart noises and sad trombones.
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:40 AM on October 23, 2015 [6 favorites]


I get the feeling that virtually any form of proportional representation will mean the Liberals won't ever get a majority again, but it'll be decades before we see another right-of-centre government.

I think most Canadians could live with that.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 11:44 AM on October 23, 2015 [2 favorites]


Doug Ford, from the Card Cheat's link:

They’re as phony as a two-dollar bill, and I’m talking about the majority of all parties.

He knows that $2 bills used to exist, right? And that they are still legal tender if you happen to have one?
posted by nubs at 11:46 AM on October 23, 2015 [19 favorites]


It's you nitpicking intellectuals who are what's wrong with this country, nubs.
posted by clawsoon at 11:50 AM on October 23, 2015 [5 favorites]


You caught me. I'm as intellectual as a $3 bill.
posted by nubs at 11:58 AM on October 23, 2015


From the natpo article, the most pathetic attempt at saving face while licking wounds:
After nearly a decade in power dedicated to tipping Canada’s political scales to the right, Conservatives were defeated by tax-and-spend Liberals Monday. With 32% of the popular vote and 99 seats, the election was far from a wipeout for the Tories, but there appears to be consensus that change will be needed to win back the electorate.
And that is the EDITOR'S INTRO NOTE! lol

The $2 bill quote is another CLASSIC Fordism: That’s the biggest problem with politicians now. They aren’t real. They’re as phony as a two-dollar bill
Rob Ford and Doug Ford are not part of the political class. We’re not part of the elites.
Are you speaking in the third person or NOT???

We understand what people go through in the average household.
Objection.

The Conservatives have to attract traditional NDP and Liberal supporters, like our base. Ford Nation goes from the poorest of the poor in Toronto community housing right up to some of the wealthiest people in the country, and everything in between.
"Ford Nation" regions voted Liberal. Even Etobicoke.
No one, and there’s very few politicians like this, no one can influence or buy Rob or Doug Ford with a donation or anything else.
What about with a cell phone video?



He then closes with:
Wouldn’t it be a great thing to clear out all the career politicians? You want people who are there to serve the people as opposed to serving their own pocketbooks.
But this was in the 2nd paragraph....
As a party, we have to rebuild. We can’t have the likes of Jason Kenney out there trashing longstanding Conservative members.
posted by Theta States at 12:12 PM on October 23, 2015 [2 favorites]


@Theta States, Rob Ford has the advantage of writing for a target audience largely incapable of those kinds of nuanced analyses. You know this already of course.
posted by hearthpig at 12:29 PM on October 23, 2015


If you want Canadian political erotica to keep you warm over the long winter, I present Serving the Prime Minister: A Canadian Romance.
posted by jeather at 12:46 PM on October 23, 2015


Rob Ford has a huge political advantage in his riding, and it's not for the reasons any of you are giving. It's because he is the only politician who has ever personally cared about and solved the problems of hundreds/thousands of families/people in his constituency. He's a fixer. If you're overwhelmed by bureaucracy and scared of the police, as many poor people are (for good reason), he's the guy who'll help you out.

Remember the Toronto guy who dug that whimsical tunnel, and then the police found it and everybody freaked out that it might be Teh Terrorists? He was scared shitless. He turned to his boss, and his boss turned to the Ford brothers. And they helped him. He's one of many, though his case was more high-profile than most.

There's good reason for anti-intellectual hate among poor people, and that's because intellectuals set up bureaucratic systems which are most easily navigated by - and thus most advantageous to - the most literate. A guy like Rob Ford can get things done for you even if your eyes start swimming when you look at a form you have to fill out and you can't afford a lawyer.
posted by clawsoon at 1:23 PM on October 23, 2015 [3 favorites]


I get the feeling that virtually any form of proportional representation will mean the Liberals won't ever get a majority again, but it'll be decades before we see another right-of-centre government.

That's why my money is on a ranked ballot. The Nanos polls put the Liberals as the NDP voter's second choice, and Conservative's third (after None). So it doesn't give proportional representation in parliament but at least you can vote your conscience instead of strategic voting.

If they could also bring back the per-vote subsidy (tying it to the first place votes), I think it would still be beneficial to smaller parties like the Greens in the long run.
posted by Gary at 1:28 PM on October 23, 2015


rocket88:
...They come from the suburban and semi-rural working class and middle class, mostly of below-average education. They would personally benefit the least from Conservative governments but are convinced otherwise. They totally believe in the low-tax message and the lazy-welfare-queen and evil-Muslim-terrorist stereotype images they've been sold. They ignore evidence, distrust experts, and mainly vote against things they've learned to hate rather than for things that would actually do good.
And they cling fiercely to their conservative (actually anti-liberal and anti-socialist) allegiance. They treat their political identity not unlike their sports team support. Like Maple Leafs fans, they will never waver on their conservative fandom no matter how horribly their team (Harper, Rob Ford, etc.) performs.
By number, they're about 25-30 percent of Canadian voters, which is huge."
It would seem these are the people that Liberals need to reach, if they want to ensure the Conservative party is permanently locked out of power. Not sure how they could do it, but it must be easier to appeal to them than Quebec separatists.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:50 PM on October 23, 2015


In the 2011 election, Harper won by replacing the Quebec nationalist part of the traditional Conservative coalition with non-Muslim immigrants in the suburbs of the GTA. I'd be interested to know how many of those voters the Conservatives held onto this time.
posted by clawsoon at 3:06 PM on October 23, 2015


I dunno, a smarter Liberal Party would covertly fund a "grassroots" Conservative party in each region, tied into local values, that bleeds support away from a federal Conservative party. And then have the regional conservative party implode between the writ and the vote so they can't get too much support, but enough to split the conservative vote.

A friend of mine with no political experience or ties lost in their riding (pretty close too, with very dirty politics from the conservative candidate and their supporters) and got a personal call from Trudeau asking them how they would like to contribute to the Liberal cause, even if they couldn't be an MP. I thought that was nice as they do have a lot to offer, and they didn't get very much support from the party as their riding was considered a lost cause.
posted by saucysault at 4:19 PM on October 23, 2015 [1 favorite]


Trudeau has responded to one of those letters trying to hold him to his promises.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 4:26 PM on October 23, 2015 [2 favorites]


"The link you followed may have expired, or the page may only be visible to an audience you're not in."
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 10:44 PM on October 23, 2015


I think you need a Facebook account to see the link.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:54 PM on October 23, 2015


clawsoon: It's because [Rob Ford] is the only politician who has ever personally cared about and solved the problems of hundreds/thousands of families/people in his constituency. He's a fixer. If you're overwhelmed by bureaucracy and scared of the police, as many poor people are (for good reason), he's the guy who'll help you out.

As I've said before, I don't disagree with that. Rob Ford as city councillor - in my opinion, this has been his most useful role in government. He's not much use in council chambers, other than being dependable for braying out the reactionary fiscal conservative catechism appropriate to the matter at hand. But as you note, he's a tenacious fighter for constituents with issues, which helps surface systemic problems.

He was unqualified and a disaster as mayor. Is there any serious disagreement with this?

Many other Toronto councillors are also effective advocates for people who contact them for help. You might not know this, because these other councillors don't happen to brag about it at every opportunity, like the Fords do.

There's good reason for anti-intellectual hate among poor people

Sure is. Populist right-wing pols continuously tell the the poor that everyone but them are elitist and to be hated... the politics of division.
posted by Artful Codger at 10:01 AM on October 24, 2015 [2 favorites]


I have a Facebook account (and I'm logged in), and I can't see the page that GhostintheMachine linked to, nor can I find any trace of it on Justin Trudeau's page. Is anyone who did see it able to summarize it for us?
posted by invokeuse at 12:19 PM on October 24, 2015


Here is Trudeau's response, the letter to him is much longer. I'm not sure there is much of significance here, other than the tone. Nice that some aide has written a response, but it is pretty boilerplate stuff (have a look at our platform...)

Casandra, I've read your letter with great interest and admiration. Your honesty and frank words have resonated across the country, and I take them to heart. First, thank you for your vote. Since the start of this campaign I've pledged that no Canadian's voice would be taken for granted - and I'm grateful for your support, no matter the reason why you marked your ballot as you did. Second, I think you will find the answers to many of the questions you've asked of me in our Liberal platform, which you can find at liberal.ca/realchange. I'm eager to get working on these commitments, and to tell Canadians about our progress as directly and clearly as possible. Right now, I'm focused on building the Cabinet that will make our plan a reality starting November 4th. I hope you'll stay as engaged as you are now throughout the process - and feel free to send me another Top 10 some time down the road!
posted by ssg at 12:47 PM on October 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


Also, I think the reason people can't see it is that the original post is by the person who wrote the letter, so her privacy settings are somehow blocking some people.
posted by ssg at 12:49 PM on October 24, 2015


Ah, sorry for those who can't/didn't see the post.

I'm not sure there is much of significance here, other than the tone.

I think that really was the only takeaway - that Trudeau's office actually pays attention to this stuff, and responds to it quickly. Compare with Harper agreeing to a radio interview only if he got to pick the first two questions and completely controlling all government messaging. Trudeau's also extended an offer to Green leader Elizabeth May (and Mulcair) to join the UN Climate Summit. He's very quickly establishing that he is a different leader from Harper. It's not saying much, but it's a refreshing change.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 1:03 PM on October 24, 2015 [4 favorites]


It would seem these are the people that Liberals need to reach, if they want to ensure the Conservative party is permanently locked out of power. Not sure how they could do it, but it must be easier to appeal to them than Quebec separatists.

The sovereignty movement in Quebec is a totally socialist affair and has scant little to do with the Conservatives. Frozen tuition for universities, CEGEP (college and their technical programs) are heavily subsidized (and encouraged), then again, student strikes are unofficially mandatory as part of learning how to be a good protesting citizen. Universal daycare. Maternal and paternal leave. Required training / certification / unionization and controlled labour pools (to maintain good wages) for many sectors with mandatory holidays (ie; construction holidays). Rent is controlled and can only be increased by the percentage the government decides. The environment, there is a moratorium on fracking (which of course is getting the province sued by corporations), carbon trade agreements were negotiated with California (USA) first and more recently Ontario (Canada). Fought to keep the long gun registry. Have labour agreement with France with recognition for education and trade qualifications. The push against religion (which was a fucked up mess that just made everyone mad) but it wasn't to promote one (although hypocrisy was pointed out) but to castigate them all (again try to be more like France). War is seen pretty much as a never option. Quebec does income tax. Electricity is controlled by province and an idea like turning it over to someone else would be a totally foreign notion. Arts are seen as very important investments in culture. I mean the policies Quebec enacts don't reflect a Conservative style at all.

The movement (and the Partie Quebecois, although currently off the rails, and in a ditch, a very deep ditch ... actually it is more like they missed the ditch and are sliding down an embankment, a steep embankment ... with a beaver pond at the bottom) is about seeking a more responsive government to the needs of the people. What those needs are and how best to meet them is a main focus in regular people separation discussions. Yes there is a bit about language, but looking at the Scottish independence push, it was almost a perfect parallel (arguments for and against) to what Quebec did. The Scottish separatists elected to Parliament ... I wouldn't say they were conservatives. What I see is a fire of protest and a demand to be heard ... that tends to scare the more conservative minded.
posted by phoque at 7:19 PM on October 24, 2015 [5 favorites]


I mean the policies Quebec enacts don't reflect a Conservative style at all.

...just as long as there are Liberals around.
posted by Sys Rq at 8:01 PM on October 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


I called it a fucked up mess. It was rejected by the voters. The PQ lost and one reason was because of this.
posted by phoque at 8:44 PM on October 24, 2015 [1 favorite]


. Trudeau's also extended an offer to Green leader Elizabeth May (and Mulcair) to join the UN Climate Summit. He's very quickly establishing that he is a different leader from Harper. It's not saying much, but it's a refreshing change.

What Trudeau does or doesn't do on climate change is pretty much a make it or break it for me. It's the biggest elephant in the room that will have a societal effect on every other issue. I do hope he will be one of the leaders who sees that. His invites to others is a good start. I'm hoping for an all hands on deck approach. It really needs to be this way for anything significant to be accomplished.

I want Canada to become a global leader on this issue. We should be. Its an odd feeling to have and I honestly don't know where it comes from but Canada being at the bottom on climate change has felt like betrayal to me. Like a gut level betrayal of something essentially 'Canadian'.
posted by Jalliah at 8:15 AM on October 25, 2015 [8 favorites]


Jalliah, I think climate change denial feels like a betrayal because so much of the Canadian identity is wrapped up in the idea of nature and the outdoors - seeing a threat like climate change and not doing anything about it seems like a willful determination to erode that part of the identity. I also think the idea of pristine wilderness and virtue are conflated in Canada, so that not protecting the environment feels like a moral failing.
posted by invokeuse at 9:33 AM on October 25, 2015 [4 favorites]


I think this Vancouver Sun article has the full text of the Facebook post to which the response was made.
Here’s Effe’s Top 10 list for Trudeau

1. Get real about your win. Accept it with humility and modesty, and treat your fellow left politicians with respect and gratitude, for it is THEIR supporters who got you here with your sweeping majority, and not your own.

2. Change our electoral system. Be brave enough to see the big picture and not just for whom our voting system will immediately benefit. Be strong enough to face those that disagree or may lose their roles because a better system is needed for the health of our country. Be the one to recreate what democracy is in Canada. You have the chance to make history for your Trudeau name (round two), and what a magical gift that is … to have the ability to create a legacy.

3. Rebuild Canada’s name on the world stage. I was once proud to sew my flag on my backpack. Now, I’m ashamed of my country. We can become peacekeepers again. We can be examples to the world of how we educate our youth, support our vulnerable people, and protect our mountain streams. We can disagree with the united states and we don’t have to be business partners with countries that commit horrific crimes against humanity. We can be a world leader in more ways than one.

4. Please don’t be bought. Your rewards for strength of character, your ethics, and being a true voice for Canada’s people today and 100 years from now will bring you far greater reward. Turn your back to those companies and lobbyists that think they can buy you (and Canada) in exchange for decisions that financially reward a few today and hurt people for generations.

5. Protect our rare and natural resources and don’t get caught in the jargon. Climate Change, global warming, carbon emissions … the jargon is divisive. There are certain decisions that clearly DO destroy this blue planet upon which we survive, and those that don’t. I recognize the harvesting of our forests, minerals, metals and oil bring jobs and money to our country, but consider moderation, balance, and sustainable practices, instead of debating the validity of the “climate change” phrase.

6. Related to #5 above, but worthy of its own number … please create fair subsidy practices. Either stop subsidizing oil, or start subsidizing energy alternatives. Refer to #4.

7. Support science. Rebuild our libraries and the information learned from thousands of reputable, skilled scientists over decades in Canada. Support a system to archive this information rather than destroy it.

8. Support an unbiased public information forum. Maybe this is the CBC. Maybe not. But probably … yes … the CBC. I’m guessing a truly democratic country thrives on the sharing of information that is non-partisan, non-religious, non-corporate, for the benefit of having an educated, engaged populace. Refer to #4.

9. Listen and communicate in real ways — no political mumbo jumbo say-nothing jibberjabber. We’re all just people, and we all deserve to be spoken to with honesty and respect, even if it’s not decisions we agree with. We’re talking inclusion, veterans, aboriginal women, veterans, jobs, refugees, pot, the justice system, the TPP, pipelines, health care, the senate and government corruption. And it doesn’t stop there. Good luck, but a good start is always good communication.

10. Bill C-51. Fix that thing. That’s like a bad sci-fi movie happening in real life. I can’t believe you voted for that in the first place. Refer to #3.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 10:19 PM on October 25, 2015 [1 favorite]




Can we just fund CBC Radio? The television service is expensive and terrible.

While I think Canada can facilitate peacekeeping, it's important to keep in mind that developing countries participate in UN peacekeeping missions because it provides a source of foreign currency revenue, revenue that Canada does not need and therefore can contribute in other ways.

Good call on ending the bombing campaign in Iraq. Something that was totally ignored in this election campaign was that a Canadian bombing sortie likely caused a number of civilian deaths on September 24.
posted by Nevin at 9:42 AM on October 27, 2015 [1 favorite]


The total spend on the CBC is less than 0.5% of the entire federal budget, approximately $1bn. 'Expensive' is not a word I'd use to describe the CBC when the BBC has a budget of over 5bn pounds per year.

We need more money going into the CBC, attracting more talent both onscreen and off, not less.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 10:47 AM on October 27, 2015 [4 favorites]


Unfortunately, the Liberal tide also swept many good people from office, including Peter Stoffer, owner of the most amazing office on the hill.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 1:28 PM on October 27, 2015 [4 favorites]


So this leadership thing for the Conservatives could get weird:


Reform Act takes effect

And the rules of the Act (which limits the vote to MPs) and the rules of the party constitution (which includes the Senators as part of the caucus for selecting an interim leader) appear to be in potential conflict.
posted by nubs at 1:37 PM on October 27, 2015


We need more money going into the CBC, attracting more talent both onscreen and off, not less.

I agree we need to put more money into the CBC, but generally this means returning funding to television. Radio is just a rounding error in the CBC budget, but still is ordered to cut and cut and cut.

It has been heartbreaking, really. For what we paid Kevin Leary we could have run an entire radio documentary series.

Radio just delivers much better value than broadcast television.
posted by Nevin at 2:11 PM on October 27, 2015 [3 favorites]


To far, far fewer people.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 3:15 PM on October 27, 2015


Can we just fund CBC Radio? The television service is expensive and terrible.

The television service mostly pays for itself, actually.
posted by Sys Rq at 3:23 PM on October 27, 2015 [1 favorite]


Radio is just a rounding error in the CBC budget

It's a bit more than that, but I could not find a simple budget summary to prove it.

Anyway, the major CBC divisions are radio, tv, interactive, news, and they are further divided by language, and finally... there's much intertwining as depts like news touch all the others, and interactive leverages and supports content from the others, etc.

CBC TV is closest to a "commercial" broadcaster of all the divisions, but their mandate and funding make them very important in juicing the Canadian production scene. The amount of programming they commission from private Canadian producers is significant. And CBC News is not only excellent, they set the bar in Canada. Without CBC TV in the market, CTV and Global would slash their news budgets significantly. They'd make SUN News look... ok, it's really hard to look THAT bad. But they'd look worse than they currently do.

Anyway, the government money going to CBC TV is reasonable value, IMO. We need to fund TV well enough to reduce the need to compete with the commercial TV broadcasters.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:42 PM on October 27, 2015 [7 favorites]


To far, far fewer people.

Not sure if you're right about that. In Vancouver the 690 morning and drive-home shows dominate radio in that market. The CBC Vancouver evening TV news is a distant fourth compared to the other networks.

Since they lost hockey I honestly do not know anyone who watches CBC television.
posted by Nevin at 5:13 PM on October 27, 2015


Anyway, the government money going to CBC TV is reasonable value, IMO.

I'm not saying that it's not. It's just that money on radio goes a lot further. Yet radio is expected to cut at the same ratio as its bloated TV counterpart.
posted by Nevin at 5:15 PM on October 27, 2015


It's just that money on radio goes a lot further.

Again: No.

CBC Television is commercial. CBC Radio is not. CBC Television is an investment. CBC Radio is a fire to throw money into.

(Not that the second thing isn't worth doing; this country gets awfully cold.)
posted by Sys Rq at 5:37 PM on October 27, 2015 [1 favorite]


CBC TV's problem is that it's both at once. Sometimes it's a profit center (the ex-HNiC), sometimes it's an "investment" (children's programming, debates). I don't think CBC TV totally knows what the heck it is, otherwise they would have bid more for HNiC.
posted by GuyZero at 5:40 PM on October 27, 2015


I don't think CBC TV totally knows what the heck it is, otherwise they would have bid more for HNiC.

They knew exactly what they were: Underfunded.
posted by Sys Rq at 5:55 PM on October 27, 2015 [2 favorites]


for a country that gave the world Marshall McLuhan we've done a piss poor job of running our single most essential communications outfit. I worked in CBC radio for a while back in the 90s and found it rather like the old sausage analogy -- you may like the end product but you don't want to know how it's actually made. Lots of weird little fiefdoms, not to mention (at the time) at least two diametrically opposed armies, management and union, and no the union were not the good guys (nor was management, it goes without saying).

I could go on at length but perhaps the best line I ever heard came from a young IT guy who nobody was really messing with at the time because they weren't clear what he was doing.

"As I see it, the whole thing is fundamentally weird. Almost anyone here who's not a complete incompetent could be making more money in the private sector. So you have to ask, why are they still here? The answer is, everybody seems to have a different reason."
posted by philip-random at 6:10 PM on October 27, 2015 [2 favorites]


I was working at the CBC during the 2005 lockout. It lasted nine weeks, and during that time lots of people told me they were unhappy about missing their favourite radio shows. Absolutely nobody told me they missed anything on TV.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:30 PM on October 27, 2015


Sys Rq: "The television service mostly pays for itself, actually."

Cancel Heartland and I will CUT you, Canuks.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:37 PM on October 27, 2015


While I'm here: Fords drove voters away from Conservatives more than Duffy: Poll. This is like a perfect storm of everything I hate in Canadian politics, except in this case it helped sink the other guys' boat.
posted by The Card Cheat at 6:38 PM on October 27, 2015 [2 favorites]


CBC Radio 1, in my market, has reliably had the top morning, lunch and afternoon drive shows on Radio 1 for decades, since I can remember. When Radio 2 was going, Disk Drive was the number two afternoon show.

Something like 1 in 3 Canadians listen regularly.
posted by bonehead at 6:39 PM on October 27, 2015 [1 favorite]




CBC radio is always on in our house. Most people I know listen to it daily. Except for the election, I can't remember the last time I watched CBC tv.
posted by fimbulvetr at 6:58 PM on October 27, 2015




I think it is fair to say though that radio is aging out. The demographics for radio in general look grim. Commercial radio has abysmal growth and is getting worse.

CBC Radio will and should have to adapt. It's probably got another decade, and could likely go longer than commercial radio, but it's not picking up a new cohort of listeners either.
posted by bonehead at 7:27 PM on October 27, 2015


CBC Radio will and should have to adapt.

But it's the golden age of podcasting. And I'm not trying to be sarcastic. There is a lot of great radio content out there, and it's being listened to.

I used to listen to CBC Radio 1 a lot but as I'm getting older I'm finding the shows are not as interesting as they once were, and I'm thinking it's a combination of slashed budgets and aging talent.

The House with Chris Hall is an order of magnitude better than when that other joker was hosting it.
posted by Nevin at 9:05 PM on October 27, 2015


For the CBC Radio naysayers, great, it's not worth it. Maybe not to you but what about an older generation it is worth to? Much like people love to hate on the postal service, they don't see it through the lens of older people who use those resources for information and entertainment. CBC is like the BBC (except, y'know, with a shit ton less funding) in that it is a distinctly Canadian resource. It is something everyone in this country has access to if you have a radio. It is more about community and Canadian identity than anything else. That is not a bad thing.

I listen to it and my local campus/community radio station. But then, I am not interested in other commercial radio stations.
posted by Kitteh at 3:23 AM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


Podcasters are doing now what CBC Radio and NPR and the better European national broadcasters have been doing for decades. In fact one of the interesting new shows on CBC is a weekly curation of podcasts. Nora Young's Spark continues to be interesting and relevent. the show Ideas continues to do great indepth think-pieces. Does anyone not like The Debaters?

I think CBC Radio is doing a good job given the financial constraints.
posted by Artful Codger at 5:31 AM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


I love The Debaters and the Irrelevant Show! Again, I think older folks who are comfy with tech might listen to podcasts (I can't think of anyone I know over 60 who does, tbh) but CBC Radio definitely has a place in the community, regardless.
posted by Kitteh at 6:16 AM on October 28, 2015 [1 favorite]


Podcasters are doing now what CBC Radio ...have been doing for decades.

There's no podcast (yet?) that has the ability to get people on the phone like As It Happens. There's no podcast that has the cultural reach of Q either, even with it in a decline. I don't know of a podcast that could replace The Nature of Things/Bob Macdonald, who regularly pulls in the key author (often the grad student that did the actual work!) of that week's hot paper in Nature or Science or whatever.

That's not to say it couldn't happen, but it hasn't really yet. Marc Maron at WTF is possibly the closest. If WTF could do an interview podcast with US Secretaries/Ministers/Heads of state every single day, I'd say the time of NPR etc... was up. But not yet, I think.
posted by bonehead at 6:36 AM on October 28, 2015 [4 favorites]


We listen to CBC Radio streams online. As It Happens is great.
posted by Theta States at 6:46 AM on October 28, 2015 [1 favorite]


...and they have the best movie critic ever.
posted by Theta States at 6:47 AM on October 28, 2015


Much like people love to hate on the postal service...

Canada Post made a profit of $194 million last year. The reasons they gave are: "Strong growth in the Parcels business; new tiered pricing for Transaction Mail introduced as part of the Five-point Action Plan; and lower employee benefit costs."

I haven't dug into the financials to find out which one of those made the biggest difference, but parcel delivery is as Web 3.0 (or whatever we're at now) as the latest iPhone.
posted by clawsoon at 7:03 AM on October 28, 2015


Okay, this is funny: The biggest part of Canada Post's profitability last year was old-fashioned letter mail. It's 'cause they raised the price of stamps.

And I'm sure you've all heard by now that rollout of the community mailbox program has been suspended because the Liberals won. (Or you would've heard that, if you listened to CBC radio.)
posted by clawsoon at 7:08 AM on October 28, 2015


I am thrilled that that program has been suspended. I was not looking forward to the use of CMBs at all.

(And I did hear about it on the radio!)
posted by Kitteh at 7:11 AM on October 28, 2015


And I'm sure you've all heard by now that rollout of the community mailbox program has been suspended because the Liberals won.

Yes! No lie, this was the number one reason I wanted to get rid of Harper. I love (and desperately need) postal service, but Canada Post the organization is a Titanic looking for an iceberg. It needs to be transformed very badly. A good place to start would be firing all the executives.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:20 AM on October 28, 2015 [3 favorites]


I'm glad the CMB was suspended, and I don't want to be all conspiracy theorist, but I told my wife I found it interesting that there were a couple of media flare ups about Canada Post installing CMBs in various locations without talking to the municipality or the property owner about those installations during the election. It felt like a way of them reminding Canadians about the issue without calling direct attention to it as an election issue.
posted by nubs at 9:56 AM on October 28, 2015


The community mailbox program was such bullshit. Dear urban and suburban residents, we'll install these monstrosities for you. Dear rural residents, no worries, you still get your delivery.
posted by jeather at 9:59 AM on October 28, 2015


We "transitioned" on Monday to a superbox, so I think we're right buggered.

CP put the boxes in really terrible places too: ours is on a blind curve of the main access road in our suburb. Its a small two-lane road, with regular bus service. There's no sidewalk access or place to park. At 5-6pm, it's already a nasty corner. There were two cars stopped in front of it when I went past on last night, blocking traffic.
I can't wait to see what it's like come winter.

In other matters, I was wondering the other day how long it would take for a 6" angle grinder to go through a 4" tube steel post? Purely theoretical interest, you understand.
posted by bonehead at 10:13 AM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


I find a portaband to be a lot more time efficient when it comes to steel tubing. And no sparks to highlight the activity.
posted by Mitheral at 11:36 AM on October 28, 2015 [1 favorite]


The community mailbox program was such bullshit. Dear urban and suburban residents, we'll install these monstrosities for you. Dear rural residents, no worries, you still get your delivery.

Enh. I like having a lock on my mailbox and a reason to take a (very short) walk.

Maybe exposing your mail to theft and vandalism is better, though; I wouldn't know, as I've had a community mailbox pretty much my whole life. (And I'm not particularly young, either. Is this concept really a new thing to some people?)
posted by Sys Rq at 12:22 PM on October 28, 2015


I live on a corner house and was pretty much resigned to the fact that they'd be putting a community mail box at the side of our house as it is the place that makes the most sense. So this reversal is a nice dodged bullet.

Ideally they'd expand door to door delivery to at least some of the areas currently served by the community boxes because it is unfair that I get door to door delivery while someone in a new subdivision doesn't. Especially because the houses in that subdivision are likely packed tighter than they are in my neighbourhood. Maybe work out a formula for residential delivery where if the density of residents is above a certain number they get door to door and if it is less then it is community mail boxes.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:27 PM on October 28, 2015


I really do not understand these arguments against community mailboxes. Are y'all just afraid of improvement, or what? Canada Post will lose far more money paying to deliver door to door, and delays will be far longer.

Ideally they'd expand door to door delivery to at least some of the areas currently served by the community boxes because it is unfair that I get door to door delivery while someone in a new subdivision doesn't.


"New," meaning thirty years old? (And why would you presume people would want door-to-door delivery?)

Maybe work out a formula for residential delivery where if the density of residents is above a certain number they get door to door and if it is less then it is community mail boxes.

The opposite of efficiency.
posted by Sys Rq at 12:31 PM on October 28, 2015


My biggest problem with it is that CMB implementation doesn't work out how this is supposed to work for the elderly, the disabled, and other groups that rely on their door-to-door service. Canada Post's responses to these questions are mealymouthed at best. I have yet to see a well thought out response to members of these groups.
posted by Kitteh at 12:49 PM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


What are the improvements of a community box over door to door delivery? As far as I can tell by switching to community mail boxes, Canada Post gets to not pay mail carriers and their customers have to pick up the slack. Where's the benefit to the customers?
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:50 PM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


I really do not understand these arguments against community mailboxes.

Mine are fairly prosaic. There's no good place in our neighbourhood to put one without causing traffic jams. We're in one of those "family friendly" places with very windy narrow streets and lots of bike paths. It turns out that jamming in a spot the size of a bus stop where a hundred or so people need to visit every day is pretty difficult without finding a place that will cause traffic jams. Of course, as a "modern" neighbourhood, we don't have sidewalks either--the (unplowed) bikepaths are supposed to keep the precious snot-monsters off the roads.

So we've had a line of cars two or three every time I've gone by, blocking the arterial roads of the suburb we're in. With the spacing of these boxes, this happens every half-kilometer or so. The roads are narrowish and bendy making passing these stopped vehicles dangerous. Traffic jams result.

I hear the urban neighbourhoods, some of them pre-automobile in Ottawa and Montreal, are even worse.

I dread what will happen when snow lines the roads and makes everything narrower.

Now, we have a little shopping mall at the end of the block, maybe a couple of hundred meters further than where our box is. I'd have MUCH preferred that CP put all boxes in the area there rather than arbitrarily just bang them in wherever they felt like. The city had no warning either apparently.

And this is why Dennis Coderre was jackhammering the boxes in August: no traffic planning, no consultation with the city, no plan for what to do when the snow flies. It's like CP wanted to make this as big a fail as possible. And I think that's entirely a real possibility, that this was done, at least in part, in bad faith.
posted by bonehead at 12:53 PM on October 28, 2015 [1 favorite]


Having mail delivered to your door is great. Certainly no worries about vandalism or theft, which is something I am more concerned about with a community box than a mailbox next to my front door. I grew up with a community mailbox and I don't miss it at all. Our half of the neighbourhood was supposed to be switched in the next couple months. The southern half of our neighbourhood was switched a couple weeks ago, so now we are in a situation where the same neighbourhood gets two different standards of delivery. We live in a 1950s subdivision with no sidewalks, and there really aren't any good locations for the things as it wasn't designed with them in mind. They have all been installed withing a metre or so of the curb. I'm concerned that it will be an awful mess in winter once the plows start burying mailboxes under 2 metre high piles of snow. I have little confidence that Canada Post will maintain them properly. We used to have a few telephone-pole mounted post boxes in our area. in winter you would climb the snow piles and bend down to shin-level to post your letters.
posted by fimbulvetr at 12:55 PM on October 28, 2015


Enh. I like having a lock on my mailbox and a reason to take a (very short) walk.

Maybe exposing your mail to theft and vandalism is better, though


I have a lock on my mailbox that is at the front of my house. If you want security, you can get it.

And the superboxes seem like they might just be targets.

The short walk wouldn't be a problem for me, but for the variety of elderly and mobility impaired neighbors I have, it would be. Especially in the winter. And I suspect I know where they would put the thing, and it would likely cause some traffic hangups.

My biggest issue with it, frankly, is that they seem to just be showing up in communities and plunking the things down with very little thought about the where and the why.
posted by nubs at 12:59 PM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


I'm in a dense urban area, there's no good place for a community mailbox. Maybe near the metro, but that sounds like it's begging for everything to be stolen. I already have to walk to get anything bigger than a book, which is just fine.

The community mailboxes were a solution to a non-existent problem, though as I have said before, a large part of my objection to it was the hypocrisy.
posted by jeather at 1:04 PM on October 28, 2015 [1 favorite]


The community mailboxes were a solution to a non-existent problem

Money does exist, actually.
posted by Sys Rq at 1:11 PM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


Sys Rq: " I like having a lock on my mailbox"

The mailbox next to my door has a lock.
posted by Mitheral at 1:21 PM on October 28, 2015


I really do not understand these arguments against community mailboxes. Are y'all just afraid of improvement, or what? Canada Post will lose far more money paying to deliver door to door, and delays will be far longer.

Yeah, my 73 year old aunt who is very active and mobile and in generally great shape and health is worried about walking to the mailbox in winter. A fall on the ice could easily mean a broken hip. My mom who has rheumatoid arthritis would also worry about falling and on top of that, the fact that when her arthritis is active there are days she can barely walk.

I would like to see Canada Post fund their door-to-door delivery as follows: Have municipalities make every mail carrier a special constable (like transit police or parking police or by-law enforcment officers -- basically people who limited powers to enforce laws and sometimes only certain laws). Give them the power to ticket people who haven't cleared ice from their sidewalks and walkways within 24 hours of a snowfall. Who better than the mail carriers, who walk on every sidewalk every day. Obviously this would be paired with the cities' programs to clear snow for the elderly and disabled. Give any fine money to Canada Post. TA-DA! For the one or two winters that it takes people to get the message, Canada Post will have funding. Then after those one or two winters, we'll all have a safer time walking down the sidewalk.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 1:35 PM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


To summarize, there are three main objections to community mailboxes:

1. Security. The community box at the end of the block, tucked away somewhere behind a house or on the other side of a fence, is much less secure than the mailbox on your porch. Front yards are secure because they're visible and open, and everyone can see what's going on. Not so for the community box.

2. Geography. Most older neighbourhoods were built with door to door service in mind. There's no good place to put big communal boxes. That's why they end up in spots that are are secluded and hard to reach.

3. Winter. Basically, the mailman's misery becomes everyone's misery with community boxes. But he/she is paid to go up everyone's steps and drop the mail in the box when it's gusty and -24. No one is compensating us for wading through snow and ice every day. That's just one of the conveniences we lose in the quest to save a large, faceless corporation some money.
posted by Kevin Street at 1:55 PM on October 28, 2015


I don't get the traffic hangup thing. I mean these would be every block or so, right? Not like one per 5 square kilometers. Are people really going to DRIVE to the mailbox? Not even the mobility older or mobility impaired people I know would do that.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 1:58 PM on October 28, 2015


Right? And even when people do drive up, it's not like they're parking for hours and hours. It's seconds and seconds.
posted by Sys Rq at 2:02 PM on October 28, 2015


There's also a major objection about garbage around a community mailbox.

Presumably people will stop by the mailbox en route to or from somewhere else, not go for a brief daily walk to pick up the mail.

Canada Post is allowed to not go up unshoveled stairs/walks, so I don't see why they couldn't just refuse to deliver mail to people who don't shovel the sidewalks in those cities that don't fund sidewalk clearing like they do street clearing.
posted by jeather at 2:07 PM on October 28, 2015


Jeather, tI don't see how that would solve the sidewalk problem.

The idea isn't *yay* let's withhold some people's mail. It's *yay* let's get people to shovel their damn sidewalks. Refusing to deliver the mail wouldn't really solve the sidewalk problem. I mean maybe a few people would start shoveling so they could get their mail, but waiting for a few days to get one's mail (by delaying shoveling or waiting for the snow to melt) is a lot less trouble than shoveling. Hell, I only empty my mailbox one a month or so, as it is.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 2:17 PM on October 28, 2015


They already do stop delivery if you don't shovel. They warn you once or twice with notices in your box, and if you don't comply delivery is stopped until you call a number and get someone from Canada Post to confirm that the walk is clear.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:21 PM on October 28, 2015 [1 favorite]


It's seconds and seconds.

More like minutes and minutes, enough for another car to join the queue. In my so far limited experience, these turn into persistent snarls, enough that they've been a problem every time I've been past them in the evenings. It wouldn't be so bad if they had a pull out like a bus stop, but they don't (and the city doesn't have room to put one in either).

I mean these would be every block or so, right?

Yep. Just enough to get clear of one before you seem to stop for the next.

Are people really going to DRIVE to the mailbox?

They're on most people's route home. It seems like a natural impulse, a quick stop on the way home.
posted by bonehead at 2:26 PM on October 28, 2015 [1 favorite]


Huh...well I want to see tickets and I want to see more of them, because it's pretty clear, as a person who walks down the sidewalk pretty often, that lots of people do not feel particularly compelled to clear their snow and ice. I'm guessing this is something that happens once canada post gets ticked off at repeat or egregious offenders rather than a thing they do automatic all/every time your sidewalk and walkway aren't fully clear, because I don't think I've ever even heard of such a notice.

In short, fine these people. And have Canada Post do it, since they're already there and apparently already have the means to write up notices.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 2:26 PM on October 28, 2015


It depends on the mailperson and the local geometry, I guess. A couple houses down the block from me there was a perfect storm situation where the neighbours had a low spot in their sidewalk (thanks to an ancient tree root underneath) and a mailman who was at the end of his rope, patience wise. Every winter the snow on either side of the sidewalk would melt, ice would fill the low spot, and he'd cut off their delivery. Both the sidewalk and the mailman are gone now, but it was quite a problem back in the day.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:36 PM on October 28, 2015


Or, in cities, acknowledge that part of your transit system includes sidewalks and clear them just like you clear streets. The problem is that pedestrians are an afterthought left to the mercy of property owners unlike cars.
posted by jeather at 2:43 PM on October 28, 2015 [4 favorites]


I feel like sidewalks are a lot harder to clear to an acceptable level by any means other than an actual human being doing it by hand. They use those sidewalk ploughs out near where my parents live and they don't really clear all the way down to the cement. They leave a compressed-by-being-pressed-down-by-the-plough thin layer of snow, which eventually becomes a thing layer of ice. The city does take responsibility for it, and they do a crap job and rarely get it done the evening or the morning of the snowfall.

Actually clearing the sidewalk requires a human with a shovel (unless the snow is very dry, even a snowblower requires that you do a little cleanup with a shovel afterwards). So having the city do this would require either an full-blown army of shovelers a or waiting for days after the snow for the snow to be cleared. And of course, they army of shovellers would have to go back to each place every day or so to make sure the sidewalk was still clear, since melt or kids stomping through snowbanks, or whatever, can get you snow and ice on a sidewalk that has already been cleared.

Since people buying property know that they are buying the responsibility of clearing adjacent sidewalks, I'm ok with expecting them to do that, if they're able.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 3:03 PM on October 28, 2015


The community mailbox thing was one of very few proposed changes that actually seemed like a mild improvement to me, assuming it really was saving a meaningful amount of money. The biggest issue is of course people with mobility concerns, so it would have helped a lot to have something like an application process to maintain home delivery in those cases. When I moved to a house with a community mailbox 2 years ago, I thought it was going to be really annoying but it's actually been an improvement, if anything:

1) real mail isn't hidden in with junk mail in an overflowing mailbox
2) valuable mail is protected from wind etc. and locked up (never had a locking mailbox before, and renting makes it harder to install one)...haven't had any expected mail fail to arrive since moving here (unlike before)
3) most importantly, I can get parcels delivered now!! without having to go way out of the way to pick them up at the post office, or having them dropped on my step for anyone to walk off with. A-maz-ing.

Haven't seen any of the potential drawbacks people are mentioning. Have never ever seen anyone stopped in a car in front of the mailbox, let alone traffic jams, no garbage problems, no problems with people breaking into the boxes, no problems buried in snow in the winter (but we usually have pretty good snow removal for my street). It's a little annoying to walk over in winter, but not a huge deal to make a quick detour in between getting home from work and walking inside. At most it's a 2-minute walk from any house on the block.

I fully recognize that some communities would have had more problems than mine (particularly the ones that don't really have anywhere for the boxes to be installed), but I think a lot more people would appreciate or at least tolerate the community mailbox after a brief adjustment period. It's always easier to see flaws in new systems than in the existing ones, and change is stressful.
posted by randomnity at 3:10 PM on October 28, 2015 [2 favorites]


Sys Rq: "And even when people do drive up, it's not like they're parking for hours and hours. It's seconds and seconds."

Well 30 seconds to a couple minutes. And people tend to idle the whole time they are there. I wouldn't be surprised if community mailboxes result in a net increase in emissions and gas consumption.
posted by Mitheral at 3:17 PM on October 28, 2015


I don't get the traffic hangup thing. I mean these would be every block or so, right? Not like one per 5 square kilometers. Are people really going to DRIVE to the mailbox?

I would as part of my drive home. I mean, it is exactly what I did when I lived rural and had to go to the post office to get my mail. Why wouldn't I do it on my drive home, particularly if it is perched on a convenient corner where I can turn off from the minor traffic artery that goes through my neighbourhood and onto the residential streets? Right now, the corner I'm thinking off is where the dropbox for mail is, and we regularly have cars parked there so people can just drop things off. And having cars parking, idling, and then pulling out again right where people are making turns off a busy street onto a quiet one has never lead to an accident or some heated words between drivers. Never.
posted by nubs at 3:19 PM on October 28, 2015


Relax. Trudeau is going to remove all community mailboxes, and will personally deliver the mail.
posted by Artful Codger at 4:29 PM on October 28, 2015 [4 favorites]


He better. And the first piece of mail I'm expecting is a tax rebate check that I can go spend on weed at the neighbourhood brothel.
posted by nubs at 4:38 PM on October 28, 2015 [4 favorites]


Much like people love to hate on the postal service...

Look, half of those songs are undeniable classics, but the back half of the album is really weighted with bits of new-millennium tripe we should probably just ignore.
posted by Theta States at 9:54 AM on October 29, 2015 [1 favorite]


The postal service's problems are real, and pretty well understood at this point. A Think-tank at Carleton U. did a report (Is the cheque still in the mail?) this summer laying all the numbers out. CP has real revenue problems and has somehow managed to eek out razor thin balances of revenue and costs. But they're super vulnerable to cost pressures and revenue losses.

I'm of the opinion that community boxes are the least worst option to save the service at all. The other major alternative is a big injection of cash every year. Estimates range from $500 to $750 million. That would come from our taxes. So we need to do this. I'm not against the program.

As I said above, my problems are with the way the program was rolled out and rammed down the cities throats without consultation. It's a prime example of federal government high-handedness at it's worst (and I've been up close and personal with some doozies). It's been implemented in a really community-hostile fashion, without regard to planning, traffic management or even snow and litter clearing. In short, it's going to take millions, downloaded to the cities, to sort this mess out. Coderre, IMO, was absolutely correct to push back. CP should have done consultations but they didn't. Calling them out as the weilders of the asshole stick is entirely fair in my view.

Trudeau has no magic wand to fix this either. Dollars to doughnuts, he's going to strike some sort of blue-ribbon panel, who will announce that, yes, this is necessary or he needs to dump in a good fraction of a billion dollars every year. My hope is that this second look will give the municipalities a chance to get on board and actually make this work, rather than just plopping the damn things down randomly, with no regard for the folks who actually have to live with them.
posted by bonehead at 10:18 AM on October 29, 2015 [2 favorites]


bonehead, I don't think I disagree with you expect in the statement of "give the municipalities a chance to get on board." I get what you are saying, in terms of involving them in the process, it's just that CPs shitty high handed tactics to this point make me want to reverse that sentiment and say that, if community mailboxes are the way forward, that CP needs to figure out how it gets on board with the possibilities that exist for that with the municipalities. They need to eat some shit for how they've rolled this out and be a partner, not an autocratic crown corporation. Your phrasing just makes me feel like the municipalities are being blamed for not getting on board, when they never had the chance in the first place, and I don't think we disagree on that at all. I'm being overly pedantic and sensitive to word choice, likely.

At the end of the day, I expect my various levels of government to work together to try to implement things like this in the least shitty way possible, in the interests of the citizen. Which means taking a lot of things into account, such as costs, ease of access, security, and the local impact (traffic, garbage, etc).
posted by nubs at 10:38 AM on October 29, 2015


the municipalities are being blamed for not getting on board

Certainly not by me. If that's how this reads, I apologize for the clumsiness. We are indeed in violent agreement.
posted by bonehead at 11:00 AM on October 29, 2015


I like violent agreement! Sorry, I likely am too sensitive to certain choices of language.
posted by nubs at 11:11 AM on October 29, 2015


I'm of the opinion that community boxes are the least worst option to save the service at all.

The problem being that CMBs de facto end the service for anyone of limited mobility. Canada Post is for all Canadians, not just those of us who happen to be able to walk out of the house and collect the mail.

The other major alternative is a big injection of cash every year. Estimates range from $500 to $750 million. That would come from our taxes.

Yes. Let's do this then. Maybe we could find the money by not involving ourselves in backroom off-the-books deals for airplanes that nobody wants, and can't even do what they're supposed to do anyway. Canada Post is a necessity. I've been thinking for a while that the solution to their problems could well be to get into internet service as public utility--provide decent high speed internet connection at a solid price, across the country. It could work, and as far as I'm concerned fits well within their mission.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 9:47 PM on October 29, 2015 [2 favorites]


When did we develop this idea that every public service must turn a profit? Not just be economically efficient, not just eliminate waste, but purely provide a profit to the government? These are public services, necessary (or nearly so) services that are paid by taxes provided by the public. But governments have been looking for ways to make them centres of profit and then turning them over to private enterprise, which then strips away anything that doesn't maximize profits. The services lost are generally the ones most needed by the public, which were subsidized by the other services.

The profit of a public service is the service that is rendered to the public, not the revenue it generates.
posted by GhostintheMachine at 3:39 AM on October 30, 2015 [8 favorites]


Isn't the solution for Canada Post pretty obvious? No one needs their mail delivered every day. Why not twice per week? Daily mail delivery in 2015 is just not necessary by any stretch of the imagination. What possible benefit does it have?
posted by ssg at 8:24 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


Because CP is not able to determine whether the thing you are receiving is time sensitive or not.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 8:32 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


By not delivering every day they would either lose a lot of business OR have to make a bunch of supplementary special deliveries for mail that is guaranteed to arrive by such and such day. I have amazon prime (yes, beat me, I am a bad person) and about 90% of my two-day delivery and maybe 2/3 of my one-day delivery comes through the regular old daily mail delivery. If they stopped having daily mail delivery then most of those things would either have to through UPS or have to be made by the special delivery trucks like they do big packages to houses, etc. now. I imagine sending out a truck to deliver a handful of packages every day that would otherwise have been delivered by the daily mail carrier isn't much of a cost savings.

All those guaranteed-day deliveries (which Canada Post charges more for! Hurray!) would either go to UPS or require more costly delivery. Maybe they would still make more money, but I don't think it's self-evidently the case that this is the answer.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 8:32 AM on October 30, 2015


Could Amazon go through UPS / special trucks, or would they not be able to affordably get your your two-day delivery without Canada Post?

The problem being that CMBs de facto end the service for anyone of limited mobility. Canada Post is for all Canadians, not just those of us who happen to be able to walk out of the house and collect the mail.

But, all Canadians don't even live places with door to door delivery. Not even close. Anyone of limited mobility who lives somewhere without door to door delivery has been without this their entire lives. If that's so unacceptable and not something they should be without, why are we only hearing about it now?
posted by ODiV at 9:12 AM on October 30, 2015


So because it already sucks for some people, the logical step is to make it suck for everyone?
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 9:14 AM on October 30, 2015


You're the one saying it sucks. I'm saying maybe it's not essential.
posted by ODiV at 9:18 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


Maybe Canada Post works differently where you are, but in my experience anything bigger or heavier than a large envelope is not delivered by letter carriers but by a parcel delivery person in a vehicle. I suppose there would be a small number of envelope-sized packages that need to be delivered by vehicle instead of by hand some proportion of the time, but that must be a pretty small difference overall (obviously, some people are outliers).

In any case, fundamentally, if Canada Post is delivering Amazon's small packages by letter carrier at a loss, then they probably shouldn't do that. If letter carrier delivery of Amazon's small packages was actually profitable, then we wouldn't be in this situation. If Canada Post has to charge a little more to Amazon to deliver small packages (because they aren't subsidizing them anymore) that seems fine to me. Parcel delivery is already a competitive marketplace.

The real question is how much do we as a society want to pay for daily mail delivery? I'd rather we get mail twice per week rather than subsidize daily delivery. I can think of a lot more valuable ways to spend $500M or whatever the number works out to.
posted by ssg at 9:26 AM on October 30, 2015


Could Amazon go through UPS / special trucks, or would they not be able to affordably get your your two-day delivery without Canada Post?

Yes of course they could do it without Canada Post. But taking all that business from Canada Post would hardly be good for their bottom line. I don't think the fact that Canada Post is losing money overall means that their delivery of these packages isn't profitable. It's entirely possible (and I assume the case, because why would they do it otherwise) that they're making money here but losing more elsewhere.

Look, like I've said, I check my mailbox once a month or so. And even then, I mostly throw out the flyers, leaf through the rest, throw out the junk mail and put the rest right back in my mailbox. I would still be reluctant to give up daily delivery because some things ARE urgent. Think not only of the mail you get, but also the mail you send. Lots of people still pay their bills by mail. Would they end up paying over-due charges more often? I tend not to care when stuff arrives, but when I send things I want to know it got there ASAP.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 9:45 AM on October 30, 2015


If you read the report I linked above, you'll see that that $500M figure is just for next year, but has the strong, inevitable, probability of growing rapidly in the future. In other words, $500M today, but getting a lot worse by 2020 when letter mail is forecasted to be in collapse.

This is a case of throwing good money after bad. It's never going to get better, given current social trends. Out solution can't be just to continue bailing a leaky boat harder. We need to fix the leak.

The problem being that CMBs de facto end the service for anyone of limited mobility.

That's a real concern, but the answer may be better in moving critical service delivery, not just bills but government services, legal services, etc.., away from physical letter mail. Parcel mail isn't the part that's in jeopardy, it's letter mail (well and "commercial mail", but I don't think anyone will cry over the loss of junk mail). The switch is already happening anyway, but government needs to work more to facilitate it. That conceivably might even improve access for the disabled to critical services.

Better to push rocks downhill faster, than try to push an avalanche back uphill, in my view.

Note that one of the recommendations of the Carleton U report is to accelerate rural broadband as well.

Because CP is not able to determine whether the thing you are receiving is time sensitive or not.

CP has three levels of standards of service (delivery times): regular mail, priority and xpresspost. The customer tells them the priority of the letter or parcel by picking one of those options.
posted by bonehead at 9:48 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


It's entirely possible (and I assume the case, because why would they do it otherwise) that they're making money here but losing more elsewhere.

Canada Post is losing money on carrier delivery. You can't separate out your Amazon prime packages that come via carrier delivery from carrier delivery in general. That doesn't make sense. Either the carrier is walking the route or they aren't.
posted by ssg at 10:00 AM on October 30, 2015


When did we develop this idea that every public service must turn a profit?

For me, at least, it's important that CP be funded well enough to do their job and that the funding they have is sustainable. That's different than profitable.

Canada Post, right now, is on the cusp of run-away increasing costs if things don't change. They have three products: letter mail (half their revenue), junk mail (a little more than a quarter), and the parcel service ( a little less than a quarter). Letter and junk mail revenue (and volume) are dropping around 5% per year, and have been for 15 years or so. They add about 1-2% more customers/addresses every year as well. Parcel post is making money , and making good money, but it's too small a fraction of the business to make up for the losses.

So they face a bad shortfall right now, and that shortfall gets a lot worse in future years. 2020 or so is projected to be a critical threshold when the wheels really come off and everything falls apart. They need to do something.

So, no, I don't think they should be making a profit, but I don't think they can continue to have costs that grow faster than is sustainable either. We've worked hard on cost containment on health care and eyes are finally turning to the massive growth in security and police budgets too. CP is in a similar bind. Figuring this out, preventing critical services from collapsing, is part of good government.
posted by bonehead at 10:02 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


I'm pretty horrified by this idea, being an American living in an urban area. Of course, it's probably coming here, given the Republican efforts to kill the USPS, but I do all my clothes and electronics shopping online and a great deal of the rest as well, so there's usually several packages a week. It took a couple of years to convince my postal people that yes please leave them all in my triplex foyer, so the idea of having to a) go to a box to find a slip and then b) go line up at the post office to get it... of course with all my neighbors many of which do a similar amount of online shopping... bleah. Especially since my local post office has no parking of its own and a very minimal amount of street parking, being downtown.

It might be slightly more tolerable if there was a way to stop catalogs and advertising circulars so that my box didn't fill up and I only had to check it once or twice a week, but hell, I might as well rent a PO box instead. At least then I'd be able to rent a larger one, and already be in the post office to pick stuff up.
posted by tavella at 10:06 AM on October 30, 2015


The good news in the US is that moving to community mailboxes in areas that don't have them would cost a lot of money up front for something that doesn't kill people, which makes Republicans run away screaming ANATHEMA! while crossing themselves.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 10:13 AM on October 30, 2015


If people are paying more to send the packages than the letters but most mail is letters, then I would think that it's possible that the packages bring enough to cover their share of carrier delivery while the letters do not.

Tavella, in Canada you can opt out of flyers by sticking a "no junk mail" sign or sticker near your mailbox, which they must honour. Nothing not specifically addressed to your address will be delivered. And when we have to go to the "post office" it's not actually a post-office, like in the US. In the US postal service is provided at post offices and in small towns there is typically one and in larger cities there is a post office for say each district of a city. Not so in Canada. In Canada post offices are in drug stores and convenience stores, so they tend to be very nearby. Mine is next door. The second closest one is block away (Actually, there are post offices a block away in three directions). Let me be clear that these aren't "places that sell stamps." They're full service post offices. Send a package overnight. Pick up the thing they couldn't leave at your door cause it needed a signature. Everything. There's no service the post office offers that you cannot get at your drugstore or convenience store post office. So there's no real need for parking and some of the annoyances you describe aren't relevant here. But I still want my daily mail delivery to my door.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 10:15 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


Especially since my local post office has no parking of its own and a very minimal amount of street parking, being downtown.

This is one place I prefer the CP set-up to the USPS one. USPS has only a few USPS owned-offices (as I understand it), while CP ones are franchised to the biggest drugstore in the country in most cities something like CVS. Rural uses a system of non-franchised CP-owned offices very similar to the USPS. The end result for most urban folks is our nearest post office franchise is usually pretty close by and the site is well-suited for public access being a retail store. Hours are much longer now too, which is nice.
posted by bonehead at 10:24 AM on October 30, 2015


Moving things like bills and whatnot away from physical mail delivery puts the cost of being billed on the person being billed, poor people without computers and internet connections, elderly people who can't or won't get electronic billing and banking, etc.

We still get enough daily mail (letters, bills, bank statements, magazines, packages, etc) that it is surprising to have a day where the mailbox is empty.
posted by fimbulvetr at 10:26 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


while CP ones are franchised to the biggest drugstore in the country

Not just one chain. There are post offices in both Shoppers' and Rexalls as well as other chains and non-chain stores. I've never been clear on who's paying whom here. Does Canada Post pay the store to host a post office or does the store pay Canada Post for the chance to bring in all those potential customers?
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 10:30 AM on October 30, 2015


Store pays CP. It's a significant revenue for them.
posted by bonehead at 10:44 AM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


If people are paying more to send the packages than the letters but most mail is letters, then I would think that it's possible that the packages bring enough to cover their share of carrier delivery while the letters do not.

Not to belabour the point here, but that really doesn't make any difference. Daily letter carrier delivery is not a divisible service. You can divide up the share of carrier delivery for packages all you like, but the service as a whole is what loses money and the service itself can't be divided up.
posted by ssg at 10:46 AM on October 30, 2015


Does Canada Post pay the store to host a post office or does the store pay Canada Post for the chance to bring in all those potential customers?

They are franchises, not run by Canada Post. Canada Post definitely gives the franchise owner a cut of revenue, but as I understand it, this is pretty small and not a significant profit centre for most stores (the bonus being drawing in more customers).
posted by ssg at 10:58 AM on October 30, 2015




I would never pay bills or bank online. That's just crazy. It means you need to pay for a service (internet) just so you can pay for the other services. If I get tired of the Internet I can stop paying for it, and although I would miss MetaFilter, I could just go on with life.
posted by Kevin Street at 1:57 PM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


I think that's increasingly going to be a "get off my lawn" position. Not saying it should be, but I think it will be.

But then, I also think the net should be designated an essential service like water, electricity and heat are now, and at least the physical connection provided by a public utility. Pay for content sure, but the backbone and last mile are public, and be offered with a basic low-level of bandwidth, sufficient to access most services.
posted by bonehead at 2:21 PM on October 30, 2015 [3 favorites]


How hard is it to have an email address that doesn't change vs. a mailing address that doesn't change?
posted by ODiV at 5:07 PM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


You're the one saying it sucks. I'm saying maybe it's not essential.

I guess your mobility isn't impaired and you have no mental health issues that make going out in public difficult or impossible. To-the-door- delivery is essential to such people, and daily is essential to everyone for reasons listed upthread.

But then, I also think the net should be designated an essential service like water, electricity and heat are now, and at least the physical connection provided by a public utility.

I suggested above that CP is uniquely positioned to be that utility.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 8:49 PM on October 30, 2015


The post-office should be drive-through/walk-thru, where you text your id and position in line and pick it up exactly as you arrive. With a side of fries.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:47 PM on October 30, 2015


Canada Post owns Purolater. There is no reason it shouldn't be as profitable as FedEx.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:49 PM on October 30, 2015


To be clear, it's not like I'm looking to take anything away from anyone; I have neither the power nor the inclination. I'm not saying hey, let's bring everyone down to the least services possible so everything's even.

It just rankles me a bit when something that people in more remote parts of Canada (who are not immune to mobility or mental heath issues) do not have access to is labeled as essential only after the bigger municipalities might lose access to it. I feel like prior to this plan to phase out the serivce, if you asked around you'd probably be told that door to door service just isn't economically feasible in some places.

In short, I probably just have a chip on my shoulder and yeah, divert some military spending or something.
posted by ODiV at 10:53 PM on October 30, 2015


Jack the price of letter mail to that of parcel mail. Daily parcel mail. Mostly, you won't be getting a parcel, not unless you're doing a ton of shopping.

Provide a modern version of Minitel. Ubiquitous wireless internet. Value-add a Canada Post secure and authenticated encryption service to replace letter mail. Free to receive. Pay a digital stamp to send.

Become a bit coin bank, and facilitate bill payments, replacing letter-based billing and PayPal.

Canada Post can be used to modernize Canada. It could be a huge boost to commerce.
posted by five fresh fish at 11:07 PM on October 30, 2015 [1 favorite]


Value-add a Canada Post secure and authenticated encryption service to replace letter mail.

Canada Post already tried this, about a decade ago. It didn't take off.

I think it would be great if Canada Post could modernize themselves and Canada in some way, but it would take a major overhaul that I'm not sure would even be possible.

I've dealt with Canada Post quite a bit as a business and they are just broken. There is no other way to put it. You can hear it in the voices of the people you deal with there. They make all other our other government bureaucracies look efficient and compassionate in comparison. All their systems seem to be constantly broken.

I can't imagine trying to give them an expanded role in any way.
posted by ssg at 4:04 PM on October 31, 2015


Mulcair does Drake's hotline bling for 22 minutes, whose episode this week is a nice close the long, long, election 42.
posted by chapps at 11:18 PM on November 3, 2015


Trudeau has announced his cabinet. 50/50 male-female representation as promised, too. And hey look, we have an actual scientist as the minister of science for once.
posted by Poldo at 10:19 AM on November 4, 2015 [3 favorites]


Also an indigenous woman as minister of justice.
posted by jeather at 10:36 AM on November 4, 2015 [5 favorites]




Another list with some capsule bios and pics of some new Cabinet members. Damn, so refreshing. Diversity, inclusiveness, people who actually know something about the portfolios they have responsibility for! That's the kind of Canadian government I've been longing for for so long.

We'll see how things go, of course. But: a promising start, for sure.
posted by stavrosthewonderchicken at 4:33 PM on November 4, 2015 [3 favorites]


(FYI for anyone who hasn't seen this recent thread yet, looks like talk about the new government has shifted over there)
posted by randomnity at 5:17 PM on November 4, 2015


Purolater

this was on purpose, right? I have never had so many troubles shipping things with anyone else--FedEx, UPS, local couriers--as I have with Purolator. Like, all the problems in my life with shipping, collectively, are still less than the problems I've had with trying to ship a single item via Purolator.
posted by feckless fecal fear mongering at 9:09 PM on November 4, 2015 [2 favorites]


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