Addicted to Losing
September 25, 2020 1:16 PM Subscribe
Cyrus Farivar on how casino-like apps have drained people of millions. Following a $155 million class-action settlement against Big Fish Games, two million players will be eligible to get a small part of their losses back, but the company is just one example of the convergence of the small-time harmless fun of video games and the rapidly expanding world of real-money gambling.
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the book "Addiction By Design" by Natasha Dow Schull is really good -- it's about actual casino gambling, but it explores the logic of slot machine addiction. classic gambling addiction with sports betting or table gambling is masculine coded and is about risk, "winning it back", and so on -- how you'd imagine a gambling addiction works.
slot machine addiction (which is more feminine coded) is about how playing can take people into "the zone", a particular mental state -- the money quickly becomes unimportant, except inasmuch as you need it to keep playing. the slot machine makers understand this very clearly -- they put a lot of sophisticated design and research into maximizing "time on device".
after reading her analysis, it surprisingly makes perfect sense that an app with no possibility of ever winning money could induce a gambling addiction.
posted by vogon_poet at 1:41 PM on September 25, 2020 [18 favorites]
slot machine addiction (which is more feminine coded) is about how playing can take people into "the zone", a particular mental state -- the money quickly becomes unimportant, except inasmuch as you need it to keep playing. the slot machine makers understand this very clearly -- they put a lot of sophisticated design and research into maximizing "time on device".
after reading her analysis, it surprisingly makes perfect sense that an app with no possibility of ever winning money could induce a gambling addiction.
posted by vogon_poet at 1:41 PM on September 25, 2020 [18 favorites]
My current bugaboo is the steaming pile of shit that Zynga's "Words With Friends" has become. Now don't get me wrong, I love that game and play it constantly. However, it now takes minutes to load on my slightly older iPad, and is now jammed full of all kinds of cruft and coins and challenges and solo games and colored tiles and free swaps and and and and.
Time on device, that's me. But increasingly irked about it.
posted by chavenet at 1:50 PM on September 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
Time on device, that's me. But increasingly irked about it.
posted by chavenet at 1:50 PM on September 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
The social angle is evil genius -- "I want to quit the club, and I want to stop, but I have friends"
Now, for the 2020 trifecta, combine these games with Qanon and "saving america".
You'll rake in more cash than you ever believed possible.
You're only ten lucky spins away! Gather your friends and pool your spins to increase your chances of discovering the darkest secrets! Click here to spend $10 for extra Wall-Building Mojo powerups!
posted by aramaic at 1:53 PM on September 25, 2020 [14 favorites]
Now, for the 2020 trifecta, combine these games with Qanon and "saving america".
You'll rake in more cash than you ever believed possible.
You're only ten lucky spins away! Gather your friends and pool your spins to increase your chances of discovering the darkest secrets! Click here to spend $10 for extra Wall-Building Mojo powerups!
posted by aramaic at 1:53 PM on September 25, 2020 [14 favorites]
I have an inclination to be addicted to games, so my general rule is that I will not spend money on things that go away or get used up and I will not spend money on unknown things. So, I will spend money on sequels or to open up new level sets that I can continue to play -- though not just to get them faster if they will open eventually anyway. Or, in Merge Dragons (which is the worst and you should not play it, I swear to god), I spent money to get an expanded playing field but won't buy gems to spend on opening boxes when I don't even know what's in the boxes, fercrissakes.
I break these rules only very occasionally, and it means that for most casual games, I spend $10-20 over months or years of playing them, which I consider to be a pretty fair price for a casual game.
I can easily see, though, how it could all go horribly wrong in an awful hurry. There are goals in Merge Dragons that could literally take decades to achieve without using gems, and I will get bored before that happens, but it wouldn't take very much for me to start spending money to speed it up.
I worry a bit about my mom and some of the games she plays, including some by Big Fish, though not their casino games. Fortunately, her iPad account is still tied to my brother's Apple ID, because nobody has ever bothered to fix it, so if she buys something in an app, he gets billed for it, which means there's a bit of a check there. He'll notice if things get out of hand.
posted by jacquilynne at 2:00 PM on September 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
I break these rules only very occasionally, and it means that for most casual games, I spend $10-20 over months or years of playing them, which I consider to be a pretty fair price for a casual game.
I can easily see, though, how it could all go horribly wrong in an awful hurry. There are goals in Merge Dragons that could literally take decades to achieve without using gems, and I will get bored before that happens, but it wouldn't take very much for me to start spending money to speed it up.
I worry a bit about my mom and some of the games she plays, including some by Big Fish, though not their casino games. Fortunately, her iPad account is still tied to my brother's Apple ID, because nobody has ever bothered to fix it, so if she buys something in an app, he gets billed for it, which means there's a bit of a check there. He'll notice if things get out of hand.
posted by jacquilynne at 2:00 PM on September 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
I played various games on my phone for about ten years, and eventually the occasional purchase became more commonplace. My wife began to comment on it around $100/month, all those little $1 and $2 impulse purchases. I stopped entirely at the beginning of 2020. But I expect one day I will be playing again because the fugue state is so attractive. I know the amounts are smaller than many other people but an addiction is an addiction.
posted by mdoar at 2:22 PM on September 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by mdoar at 2:22 PM on September 25, 2020 [4 favorites]
Not gonna lie, I was pretty surprised Apple allows these games on the app store after I saw an ad for one and 'how easy it was to earn REAL MONEY'. There's an entire network of these 'games of skill not chance' casino halls that I assume are sending fraudulent computer opponents against bettors.
posted by pwnguin at 2:48 PM on September 25, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by pwnguin at 2:48 PM on September 25, 2020 [7 favorites]
I try to convince my teenage son that spending money on skins is fucking stupid. He is not convinced. But, FWIW, I have never paid real money for a loot box, nor an awesome skin. But unless a game has a market to sell skins, weapons, etc., I have a hard time seeing those as gambling. Why anyone would pay money in a casino app, with no possible cash return...? Wut?
posted by Windopaene at 4:33 PM on September 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by Windopaene at 4:33 PM on September 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
The more I think about it, the more possible my idea seems, and I almost (kinda) want to do it (not really).
So, a slot machine game...
Qanon starts in the room/tiering system, but you NEVER MENTION IT EVER. You gotta work your way up, starting out as Sheep [you don't call them that, but their avatar always starts out as a cartoon sheep or something mildly embarrassing), slowly moving into pseudo-military ranks, culminating in joining the Special Executive. Each tier has different, slowly overlapping requirements (so you can't just spend your Coin "winnings" to get into the next room, oh no, you need to have earned enough of the different currencies to do it, with the upper levels requiring only the highest-level currencies).
Currency is multi-tiered; you start with Coins, but there's also Spins, Spin Boosts, Decryption Keys, and finally Secrets. Secrets are real conspiracy-related text but they start out as gibberish, but you can use Decryption Keys in a timed pattern-matching mini-game where you match strings BUT the keys are all overlapping substrings (ROI vs. OIT) so that you can burn a key on the "wrong" string, giving you cleartext that's also the wrong answer.
Next, we add an MLM layer -- you can establish a downline that tithes you a portion of their currencies. This is where the real social extortion takes place, where you get people badgering each other to "donate" just $5 more so they can get enough Spins that their upline can take a shot at getting a Secret.
Then, we add a weekly project. Kind of like that ridiculous Molyneux "what's at the center of the cube" thing, except of course it's building a wall. This layer exists to promote competition between groups and "levels" (can't let those Sheep plebes beat us! We're better than them!), but of course the real purpose is to burn off currencies in nonproductive ways. Maybe you have some absurd conversion rate that turns into real money for a purchase of border land if you ever get enough money (you will never get enough money).
Those Secrets I mentioned above are GTP-3 generated blocks of text that use a Qanon corpus (and other older conspiracy theories as well why not), so the winners end up with some kind of plausible conspiracy clue that by itself doesn't actually mean anything, and you can generate an infinite array of them. Some of these, however, are specifically written to implicate members of this casino community, to promote mutual suspicion and competition between MLM pyramids -- and at the highest levels of commitment you offer prizes that seem to imply in a roundabout way that you can perhaps sabotage your opposing MLM pyramids...
The MLM thing is especially key to the whole affair, and ideally we'd construct this such that the pyramids can go to war with each other -- if my pyramid snags Bob as a new member, he can bring his downline with him. However, behind the scenes you're manipulating the odds such that the pyramid Bob just left now has a slightly higher rate of return, so that over time you don't end up with one single dominating pyramid (the system is balanced so that the optimal case is >15 pyramids or thereabouts), regardless of how many players there are).
Lastly, there's cosmetic items that can be won or purchased, but which can only be granted downline -- so if you win a nifty hat, you can pass it down to a lower player, and their avatar now sports a nifty hat, yay! If they leave your downline, they lose the hat, but their new patron might have a better hat...
It sounds complicated when you type it all out, but it's simpler than some "games" that currently exist, and I think the MLM angle would be a license to print money. Like a slot machine crossed with Scientology and Herbalife.
posted by aramaic at 6:10 PM on September 25, 2020 [30 favorites]
So, a slot machine game...
Qanon starts in the room/tiering system, but you NEVER MENTION IT EVER. You gotta work your way up, starting out as Sheep [you don't call them that, but their avatar always starts out as a cartoon sheep or something mildly embarrassing), slowly moving into pseudo-military ranks, culminating in joining the Special Executive. Each tier has different, slowly overlapping requirements (so you can't just spend your Coin "winnings" to get into the next room, oh no, you need to have earned enough of the different currencies to do it, with the upper levels requiring only the highest-level currencies).
Currency is multi-tiered; you start with Coins, but there's also Spins, Spin Boosts, Decryption Keys, and finally Secrets. Secrets are real conspiracy-related text but they start out as gibberish, but you can use Decryption Keys in a timed pattern-matching mini-game where you match strings BUT the keys are all overlapping substrings (ROI vs. OIT) so that you can burn a key on the "wrong" string, giving you cleartext that's also the wrong answer.
Next, we add an MLM layer -- you can establish a downline that tithes you a portion of their currencies. This is where the real social extortion takes place, where you get people badgering each other to "donate" just $5 more so they can get enough Spins that their upline can take a shot at getting a Secret.
Then, we add a weekly project. Kind of like that ridiculous Molyneux "what's at the center of the cube" thing, except of course it's building a wall. This layer exists to promote competition between groups and "levels" (can't let those Sheep plebes beat us! We're better than them!), but of course the real purpose is to burn off currencies in nonproductive ways. Maybe you have some absurd conversion rate that turns into real money for a purchase of border land if you ever get enough money (you will never get enough money).
Those Secrets I mentioned above are GTP-3 generated blocks of text that use a Qanon corpus (and other older conspiracy theories as well why not), so the winners end up with some kind of plausible conspiracy clue that by itself doesn't actually mean anything, and you can generate an infinite array of them. Some of these, however, are specifically written to implicate members of this casino community, to promote mutual suspicion and competition between MLM pyramids -- and at the highest levels of commitment you offer prizes that seem to imply in a roundabout way that you can perhaps sabotage your opposing MLM pyramids...
The MLM thing is especially key to the whole affair, and ideally we'd construct this such that the pyramids can go to war with each other -- if my pyramid snags Bob as a new member, he can bring his downline with him. However, behind the scenes you're manipulating the odds such that the pyramid Bob just left now has a slightly higher rate of return, so that over time you don't end up with one single dominating pyramid (the system is balanced so that the optimal case is >15 pyramids or thereabouts), regardless of how many players there are).
Lastly, there's cosmetic items that can be won or purchased, but which can only be granted downline -- so if you win a nifty hat, you can pass it down to a lower player, and their avatar now sports a nifty hat, yay! If they leave your downline, they lose the hat, but their new patron might have a better hat...
It sounds complicated when you type it all out, but it's simpler than some "games" that currently exist, and I think the MLM angle would be a license to print money. Like a slot machine crossed with Scientology and Herbalife.
posted by aramaic at 6:10 PM on September 25, 2020 [30 favorites]
jesus christ dude
posted by thelonius at 6:56 PM on September 25, 2020 [29 favorites]
posted by thelonius at 6:56 PM on September 25, 2020 [29 favorites]
Why anyone would pay money in a casino app, with no possible cash return...? Wut?
I think the analogy is that you can't really predict what you get, and you can spend N dollars on 'loot' with a solid chance of getting what you want, but also might not. There's really not even a requirement that you can win the thing they advertise (in the US; i understand japan requires percentage chances published).
As for secondary markets a few options:
1. Many games do in fact allow you to 'gift' items to other players, and there are 3rd party markets for that, much in the same way pachinko parlors always happen to be located next to a store buying pachinko prizes for cash. Nobody's technically violating the law, but gambling is absolutely happening. And probably a lot of money laundering.
2. Even if you can't transfer in-game items, you can always sell the account when a loot crate pays out a chase rare.
posted by pwnguin at 7:08 PM on September 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
I think the analogy is that you can't really predict what you get, and you can spend N dollars on 'loot' with a solid chance of getting what you want, but also might not. There's really not even a requirement that you can win the thing they advertise (in the US; i understand japan requires percentage chances published).
As for secondary markets a few options:
1. Many games do in fact allow you to 'gift' items to other players, and there are 3rd party markets for that, much in the same way pachinko parlors always happen to be located next to a store buying pachinko prizes for cash. Nobody's technically violating the law, but gambling is absolutely happening. And probably a lot of money laundering.
2. Even if you can't transfer in-game items, you can always sell the account when a loot crate pays out a chase rare.
posted by pwnguin at 7:08 PM on September 25, 2020 [1 favorite]
It sounds complicated when you type it all out, but it's simpler than some "games" that currently exist, and I think the MLM angle would be a license to print money. Like a slot machine crossed with Scientology and Herbalife.
I’m in.
posted by mr_roboto at 8:44 PM on September 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
I’m in.
posted by mr_roboto at 8:44 PM on September 25, 2020 [2 favorites]
I find this fascinating. I've been lucky to have absolutely no interest in games of chance. But I spend a hell of a lot of money on dumber things. At least this won't give you liver cirrhosis. I also remember the little notebook my grandma kept with decades of carefully recorded winning lottery numbers, in an attempt to defeat the state (or, rather, their contractors) with numerology. This seems, if not actually better, at least less official.
My hand full of friends who are game designers still all have boring day jobs. I'm tempted to suggest they take up this hustle to fund the projects they're excited about. And put a hard limit on the amount of money individuals can invest
posted by eotvos at 8:48 PM on September 25, 2020
My hand full of friends who are game designers still all have boring day jobs. I'm tempted to suggest they take up this hustle to fund the projects they're excited about. And put a hard limit on the amount of money individuals can invest
posted by eotvos at 8:48 PM on September 25, 2020
My own practice with freemium games is to apply my own artificial rule of never spending real money in the game. I find this actually adds an extra dimension of enjoyment. Devising a strategy to work around the gamemaker's continuous prods to pay is an entire game in itself. The next level of this approach (which I have yet to achieve), is adding an additonal rule of never watching commercials for in-game rewards.
posted by fairmettle at 10:36 PM on September 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by fairmettle at 10:36 PM on September 25, 2020 [6 favorites]
The company has said in previous court filings that only a fraction of the game's players actually spend money.
I wonder if the fraction is 9/10.
posted by chavenet at 6:04 AM on September 26, 2020 [5 favorites]
I wonder if the fraction is 9/10.
posted by chavenet at 6:04 AM on September 26, 2020 [5 favorites]
Who watches the commercials? You just let it play on your phone and do something else while it does. Just like we used to do with TV commercials.
posted by Anne Neville at 7:54 AM on September 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by Anne Neville at 7:54 AM on September 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
I get addicted to games, but I am never tempted to pay real money for advancement in the game or loot. The time cost is the worst cost for me, especially in lost sleep when I play before bed or wake up in the middle of the night and start playing or waste part of my morning in bed because of the game. I had to delete them off my phone.
posted by Blue Genie at 8:16 AM on September 26, 2020
posted by Blue Genie at 8:16 AM on September 26, 2020
I wonder if the fraction is 9/10.
If this were true it would be good. A million people spending a few bucks a month is pretty harmless.
Unfortunately the pattern with these things is that a small number of people spend way too much money. The whole business model is to have a large number of players, and ruin the lives of a small number of them.
posted by vogon_poet at 12:06 PM on September 26, 2020 [7 favorites]
If this were true it would be good. A million people spending a few bucks a month is pretty harmless.
Unfortunately the pattern with these things is that a small number of people spend way too much money. The whole business model is to have a large number of players, and ruin the lives of a small number of them.
posted by vogon_poet at 12:06 PM on September 26, 2020 [7 favorites]
I think the MLM angle would be a license to print money.
OK, hear me out: Roko's Basilisk but MLM. Players start out "training the AI" by solving CAPTCHAs, and then doing other Mechanical Turk-like tasks, but the cognitive time requirements to keep rising through the ranks is such that players have to either recruit helpers or subsidise the app-makers farming the "tasks" out to external workers. And if they fail, their avatar will be tortured eternally by the nascent AI.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:57 PM on September 26, 2020
OK, hear me out: Roko's Basilisk but MLM. Players start out "training the AI" by solving CAPTCHAs, and then doing other Mechanical Turk-like tasks, but the cognitive time requirements to keep rising through the ranks is such that players have to either recruit helpers or subsidise the app-makers farming the "tasks" out to external workers. And if they fail, their avatar will be tortured eternally by the nascent AI.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:57 PM on September 26, 2020
And here I was thinking my "QAnon is an ARG" article was pushing the envelope...
posted by adrianhon at 3:10 PM on September 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by adrianhon at 3:10 PM on September 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
Honestly, I think the MLM Qanon game design is a really bad idea.
The design is excellent, but that's the problem. You're just providing another avenue of engagement for the Qanon 'fandom,' and worse, providing an addictive 'in' for people who otherwise might never have touched Qanon. The MLM angle also provides a subtle but powerful pressure to keep people involved, when otherwise they may drop out.
As someone who has worked on free-to-play games, I'm sure it would make plenty of money. I'm also sure it would help the Qanon 'cause.' Please do not make it.
posted by ®@ at 10:13 PM on September 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
The design is excellent, but that's the problem. You're just providing another avenue of engagement for the Qanon 'fandom,' and worse, providing an addictive 'in' for people who otherwise might never have touched Qanon. The MLM angle also provides a subtle but powerful pressure to keep people involved, when otherwise they may drop out.
As someone who has worked on free-to-play games, I'm sure it would make plenty of money. I'm also sure it would help the Qanon 'cause.' Please do not make it.
posted by ®@ at 10:13 PM on September 26, 2020 [1 favorite]
Also, yes, vogon_poet is correct.
As far as 'payers to players,' 1/1000 is considered excellent.
These games rely on "whales," a tiny fraction of their playerbase who spend absurd amounts of money. They don't optimize for thousands of people paying $1-$5, they optimize for a handful who spend $10k+.
Fun fact: players who make a point of 'beating the devs' by NEVER paying are actually quite valuable, because they spend a lot of time on the game, help build the community, boost the rankings, offset churn, and reinforce the idea that 'nobody has to pay to have win.' They're certainly more useful than someone who dropped a dollar but uninstalled the next week.
As long as you are giving them screentime, they are happy to have you, and you are helping the bottom line.
posted by ®@ at 10:28 PM on September 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
As far as 'payers to players,' 1/1000 is considered excellent.
These games rely on "whales," a tiny fraction of their playerbase who spend absurd amounts of money. They don't optimize for thousands of people paying $1-$5, they optimize for a handful who spend $10k+.
Fun fact: players who make a point of 'beating the devs' by NEVER paying are actually quite valuable, because they spend a lot of time on the game, help build the community, boost the rankings, offset churn, and reinforce the idea that 'nobody has to pay to have win.' They're certainly more useful than someone who dropped a dollar but uninstalled the next week.
As long as you are giving them screentime, they are happy to have you, and you are helping the bottom line.
posted by ®@ at 10:28 PM on September 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
®@ is right, if you read the article, 9/10 never put in 1 dollar. Now, presumably some of those play for five minutes and delete the app, but yes, it's the whales. That's why you can afford to develop a pretty expensive game and make it available "for free". Yes, some apps are bite-sized and pretty cheap to write (Flappy Bird), but many "free" games have a ton of expensive custom art assets, different games, social interaction, etc. The kind of game you would have paid $50 for on PC a decade ago.
posted by wnissen at 10:36 AM on September 28, 2020
posted by wnissen at 10:36 AM on September 28, 2020
Fun fact: players who make a point of 'beating the devs' by NEVER paying are actually quite valuable, because they spend a lot of time on the game, help build the community, boost the rankings, offset churn, and reinforce the idea that 'nobody has to pay to have win.'
Where are those two quotes taken from?
posted by fairmettle at 2:14 AM on October 15, 2020
Where are those two quotes taken from?
posted by fairmettle at 2:14 AM on October 15, 2020
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