U.S. Election Day
November 3, 2020 7:25 AM   Subscribe

It's Election Day in United States. Some 95 million people have voted early. For people voting today or helping voters: the Election Protection Hotline is run by the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law and partner organizations and has staff available to help in several languages. If someone has a problem voting, call 866-OUR-VOTE.

Washington Post: what experts are watching today, talks about timing of poll closings, vote counting, which states to watch.

CNN liveblog for people who want a drip of micro-stories all day.


- - -
Guidance for Election Day on Metafilter - Keep it well-sourced and substantive, avoid rumors and invented speculative horror scenarios. Take a break if you need a break.
Metafilter Chat - has a whole room for election-specific chitchat and anxious pacing around. How to log in to Chat.
Other threads:
Activism thread - Share what you're doing to help, activism, phone banking, etc
Voting thread - Share your voting experiences
Break Room - a Metatalk thread free of election talk, for people who need a break
Fucking Fuck thread - the place for formless screaming
There Is Help wiki page - has a big list of crisis hotlines for people feeling distressed or overwhelmed; please reach out if you need to talk to someone.
Mefi Contact Form - to reach the moderators.
posted by LobsterMitten (1840 comments total) 75 users marked this as a favorite
 
Big breath. Here we go
posted by wheelieman at 7:26 AM on November 3 [56 favorites]


From the other side of the pond, you're in my thoughts, US-Mefites. Here's hoping your country pulls through this. Sending strength!
posted by rosiroo at 7:27 AM on November 3 [49 favorites]


Buckling in.
posted by cooker girl at 7:28 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by cortex at 7:29 AM on November 3 [250 favorites]


Another anxious foreign observer (albeit with family and friends in the US). Good luck!
posted by Happy Dave at 7:30 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


today is honestly just bare-minimum step 1 day for fixing this clusterfuck, and already there's so much anxiety.
posted by FirstMateKate at 7:31 AM on November 3 [39 favorites]


I feel like that CNN microdrip would have a potentially negative drug interaction with my Bailey's and lorazepam.
posted by invincible summer at 7:32 AM on November 3 [41 favorites]


Unleash the hounds!

(Hey, at the very least, the political ads, candidate junk mail and campaign spamming will stop for a little while.)
posted by darkstar at 7:32 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Deep breaths. We can do this.
posted by Foosnark at 7:36 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Good luck down there everybody.
posted by chococat at 7:36 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Happy election day! I'm feeling more optimistic than I was four years ago.
posted by triggerfinger at 7:37 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Much love from Canada. You got this.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 7:37 AM on November 3 [18 favorites]


I voted last week and confirmed my ballot was received and verified. One blue voice among many in a traditionally red state (Arizona) but 2020 has beaten assumptions clean out of me, so who knows what lies ahead. There are some interesting local initiatives and quite a few (terrible) judges up for reelection, so hopefully the needle moves in the right direction for those, too.

Anyway, my advice would be to manage your expectations. That's a skill that provides a cornerstone of happiness and emotional stability in all things, and this is no exception. The results of the election will almost certainly not be known by the end of the day, regardless of what the loudest pundits and braincrackers are shouting. And even if/when your preferred outcome seems certain, expect legal challenges at the minimum and probably many, shall we say, extra-legal, gambits from the White House Squatter.

This is going to be a marathon, not a sprint. Sorry, Gimli.
posted by Godspeed.You!Black.Emperor.Penguin at 7:37 AM on November 3 [22 favorites]


I have been getting updates from my partner, who is working the polls in Indiana. The guidance around electioneering has changed here, so fuckos with their “Women for Trump” (etc.) t-shirts are able to vote unchallenged.

I want to burn everything down.

One report from the check-in desk: “161 ppl have been checked in by me. of those, 17 have attempted to sign my touch screen with a ball point pen. Just over 10% of these ppl have tried to sign my touch screen with a bic pen.”

USA! USA! USA!

However, Tracy Chapman: https://youtu.be/R1P1g4C-Jjg
posted by minsies at 7:38 AM on November 3 [20 favorites]


I'm hopeful, but I was hopeful in 2016.
posted by bondcliff at 7:39 AM on November 3 [23 favorites]


minsies, I'm not at all sure about Indiana, but in Ohio, voters are encouraged to cover up their election swag but they cannot be denied the right to vote if they refuse. It might be a state-wide thing. I'll go look it up.
posted by cooker girl at 7:40 AM on November 3


Biden took ALL FIVE votes in Dixville Notch, NH!
posted by vrakatar at 7:41 AM on November 3 [54 favorites]


I’m just thinking back to 2016, when this nightmare began. And then how in 2020 the nightmare got turned up to 11. And how it has manifested in so much fear, anger, pain and frustration for so many.

We’ve been working and waiting and talking ourselves through this national tragedy. If this turns out right today, it will be a glorious triumph of decency. And a lot of people can — in both a real and figurative sense — start on the road to healing.

But no matter how it turns out, for good or ill — and I am hoping for good! — I’m glad to be spending this day with you all.
posted by darkstar at 7:41 AM on November 3 [9 favorites]


That took a lot less time than I thought.

What you can and can't wear to the polls.
posted by cooker girl at 7:42 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


> I'm hopeful, but I was hopeful in 2016.

I'm confident that more people will vote for Joe Biden than will vote for Donald Trump. I have essentially zero doubt in that assertion. However, I am significantly less confident that all of those votes will be accurately counted and valued under the crushing yoke of the electoral college.
posted by Godspeed.You!Black.Emperor.Penguin at 7:42 AM on November 3 [89 favorites]


My anxiety level is through the roof, and I'm not normally an anxious person. It's just that I was so sure last time that Hillary would win - all the polls said so, and surely Americans weren't such idiots that they couldn't see through that charlatan? My emotions are so close to the surface, and I've cried twice already this morning from my daily NYT read - first from this lovely letter from RBG's neighbor, which reminded me of my grief, and second, from watching this video of a radiant-looking Tracy Chapman singing Talkin' 'Bout A Revolution, which reminded me that there are millions of people out there who feel just like I do, and maybe, just maybe, we can collectively do something to start righting this ship.
posted by widdershins at 7:45 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


My abuelita turns 100 today, let's not fuck this up!
posted by riverlife at 7:46 AM on November 3 [93 favorites]




Sister and brother-in-law voted in person in suburban Richmond VA and reported zero wait. They were quite surprised. They did note that everyone else they knew had done early/mail-in (?) voting, but they wanted those stickers.
posted by skyscraper at 7:50 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Do you believe in omens?

No.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 7:51 AM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I see from my local email newsletter that our little community here on an island in Puget Sound has had voter intimidation stuff at the local ballot boxes. (Of course, seems like every other household out here is stuffed full of nazis, both the "man truck" kind and the genteel kind, so I guess that shouldn't be too surprising.) All I can hope is that if they're that scared maybe we can prevail. Please?
posted by maxwelton at 7:52 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I voted and verified that my mail-in ballot was received and will be counted. I have voted by mail for years so I was not that worried. Also, my local mail systems is working well. I live in a mostly liberal bubble (Marin County, California) but have seen ugliness oozing around the edges--BLM signs defaced, folks expressing hate during mostly peaceful demonstrations. But this Sunday was the capper that really brought home the fact that racism is alive and well here. A caravan of 250-300 cars and trucks with dump banners and flags (apparently started in Santa Rosa) came through our town with drivers/riders yelling racist obscenities and ended up in Marin City, which is a primarily black enclave near Sausalito. The drove into the parking area of a small shopping center and proceeded to scream at the residents who came out to protest--then shot them with paintball guns and used the "n" word toward little kids.

The residents responded with eggs. Marin Sheriffs showed up but didn't make any arrests.

We have to vote this monster out who gives this slime permission to behave this way--to give into their basest, ugliest impulses.
posted by agatha_magatha at 7:53 AM on November 3 [36 favorites]


A Florida rundown heading into today, from a reporter I used to work with, Politico's Gary Fineout:

Final set of Fla numbers ahead of today
Vote-by-mail
2.14M Democrats
1.47M Republicans
1.11M NPA/3rd-party
Early vote
1.95M Republicans
1.4M Democrats
971K NPA/3rd-party
About a 115k Dem edge in raw totals

Also from Gary: "A total of 9.06M voters in Florida cast ballots ahead of Election Day in 2020. In 2016, a total of 9.58M voters cast ballots in Florida."

Those 2 million independents and other parties as usual will make all the difference. (my take, not Gary's, but pretty obvious.)

I've been watching local reports down here and not seeing anything about problems at the polls, yet, at least (unlike in Spalding Co., Georgia). Lines are fairly short and weather is terrific (for here) so that should boost turnout.

Florida officials have said we can expect close to complete results pretty quickly tonight, though if it's close, we may not be able to make the call.
posted by martin q blank at 7:53 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Things are going smoothly in my precinct. Helping new Americans vote is my favorite job ever.
posted by Gray Duck at 7:54 AM on November 3 [35 favorites]


I'm eagerly awaiting for my son's virtual classes to end so I can drink without worrying about it being caught on camera by the teachers.
posted by 80 Cats in a Dog Suit at 7:55 AM on November 3 [30 favorites]


Good luck guys! We all have our fingers crossed.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:58 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Pink champagne is chilling in my fridge. As is a bottle of gin. Choose my booze, America! Choose wisely.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:59 AM on November 3 [42 favorites]


As a Floridian, I want to apologize in advance if we fuck this up again.
It wasn't my doing, but I am only one man against many idiots.
posted by Bill Watches Movies Podcast at 7:59 AM on November 3 [51 favorites]


My coworker went in person to vote this morning and ran into a friend of mine who is a poll worker today and the two of them, neither of which know the other beforehand, made the connection about the mutual friend (myself) thanks to a topically-relevant mask that my coworker was wearing! #2020
posted by andrewesque at 8:02 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I neglected to line up a friend to spend the day hiking with, so instead I'm going to try to work this morning, then in the afternoon a friend set up a zoom channel where we're going to watch sci-fi pilot episodes.

My dog agility trainer cancelled classes for tonight because apparently people are worried about election-related violence and don't want to go out after dark. Sigh.
posted by suelac at 8:04 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]




Pink champagne is chilling in my fridge. As is a bottle of gin.

That was my Election 2004 game plan. Both were consumed.
posted by Buy Sockpuppet Bonds! at 8:05 AM on November 3 [16 favorites]


@EmmyA2:
2020
24 hours to go
I wanna be sedated
posted by Lexica at 8:06 AM on November 3 [127 favorites]


I'm sitting here in my hotel room in Tulsa where I'm quarantined through Monday because of COVID (luckily an extremely minor case, to the point where if I didn't have the positive test I doubt I'd even realize I'm sick) and hoping harder than I ever have in my life. Thank goodness I voted early, because I am not an Oklahoma resident.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:06 AM on November 3 [27 favorites]


What a surreal day. I feel like an abused spouse at divorce court. Something better awaits on the other side, hopefully, but there's nothing fun or interesting about this day at all. Just sad that things have come to this.
posted by swift at 8:07 AM on November 3 [20 favorites]


I’m just thinking back to 2016, when this nightmare began.

2016. Oh God. The NYT dial gauge thing. .I remember at some point that night, I realized that the sickening feeling creeping over me was familiar from 2000, and I thought: we are losing this election. The goddamn country is going to make Donald Trump President. I had seriously overestimated the voters' ability to discern that this man was an ass-clown who you wouldn't elect to be President of an HOA. Or underestimated his appeal. Both, really - it should have been a red alert when Trump started winning primaries with his insult comic act in the (many) GOP debates, and his rallies. The voters could have had Jeb!, at least. No, he's "low energy"!
posted by thelonius at 8:08 AM on November 3 [16 favorites]


Regardless of the results, I'm wondering what new lows of attempts at ratfucking polling places and vote counting we'll find happened today. Gonna go out on a limb and assume most of them will come from the "we don't want everyone to vote" party.
posted by rmd1023 at 8:08 AM on November 3


I'm just saying -- buy your groceries today or tomorrow. If a general strike opens up (and there has been massive planning to make it happen if needed), supply chains will hit the skids very, very fast.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:09 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]




Elie Mystal from the Nation is liveblogging the day, on the lookout for voting issues.
posted by nubs at 8:13 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I'm doing the world a favour and not watching the results live as historically any event in which I am invested in ends up with the side I'm supporting losing.

I'm not particularly superstitious, just out of better ideas of how to help from across the pond.
posted by slimepuppy at 8:13 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


2020
24 hours to go
I wanna be sedated


Chuck Todd made this joke on air yesterday, and I felt old.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:15 AM on November 3 [21 favorites]


I've been getting nonpolitical friends to donate to Biden and the Senate over the last 6 months by asking how much would they pay to be rid of daily existential dread? Several thousand dollars as it turns out.
posted by benzenedream at 8:16 AM on November 3 [30 favorites]


On the topic anxiety, which I suffer from, for me it has been somewhat helpful to accept the event horizon we currently face. There is no meaningful way to see beyond the veil before us. Take heart in the efforts you and millions of others have done and are doing to assure a better outcome, but also consider where we're at right now.

We're in the eye of the storm. It has been battering us for quite awhile and will rage again, at least for a time, in the near future. But right now, today? There is a certain peacefulness to be found here in this place where we've done what we can. It's a place to conserve your energy for whatever lies ahead. It's a campfire, a humble inn, a scenic overlook, a video game checkpoint. Use what it offers.

That's all I've got.
posted by Godspeed.You!Black.Emperor.Penguin at 8:17 AM on November 3 [59 favorites]


Not watching anything election related today, for my mental health. My family agrees. time enough to face the eventual outcome and reaction. Today is a harmless unrelated TV and Movie day.
posted by mermayd at 8:18 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Up here in Toronto my co-workers in 2016 - the ones I discussed the election with, anyway - all seemed pretty confident about a Clinton win; one of them went so far as to go out on her lunch break and buy a bottle of champagne (the real stuff). I wasn't sure how to feel about it, and when Trump won I was...surprised, but not shocked I guess? I certainly hadn't discounted the possibility, and I went to bed before it was official but pretty much a done deal, feeling tired and sad.

Today I'm not sure how to feel, either. I'm glad I'm at work today to keep me (somewhat) off the internet, and I've actually got a lot to do this afternoon so that'll keep my mind off of things (again, somewhat). What I'm struggling with is what to do when I get home...it seems unrealistic to think that I'd be capable of not following the news at all, but I don't want to be obsessively glued to it, either. When Doug Ford was elected Premier of Ontario in 2018 I was on an overnight flight to Europe as the results came in and when I landed in Denmark the first thing I did was turn on my phone and learn that not only had he won, he'd won a majority, and that shit was one of the worst moments of my adult life.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:18 AM on November 3 [15 favorites]


I voted and the experience was nice. No line, pleasant poll workers, including one guy who looked just out of high school.

(Yes! Youth engagement!)

But then, I've always lived in college towns in red or purple states. Liberal, relatively low-density bubbles. It boggles my mind that some people will be standing in line for hours today.

The Republican party has pulled a really dirty trick in my state: In 2018, we passed an anti-gerrymandering bill that established an independent redistricting commission. Now there's a proposed amendment that would walk that back and would let the governor appoint the members of the commission.

They know that no one would vote for that, so they describe it as "bipartisan" (it wouldn't be in practice) ... AND they made the first item in the amendment eliminating lobbyist gifts to politicians, which they know will sound good to everyone. Except we currently only allow gifts up to $5, anyway.

I'm really worried that it will pass. It's an obvious scam once you look at the actual text, but most voters never will. It's obvious that they're willfully trying to mislead voters, which makes me so angry. It's just ... how can you pretend that you're working for democracy when your strategy is to prevent people from voting, gerrymandering votes so people's votes don't count, and lying to voters so they don't know what they're voting for? How????

(Don't answer, it's rhetorical.)

I wish I had the foresight to stock up on booze.
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 8:19 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


i quit drinking this year but i'm opening the weed gummies @ 4pm after my last meeting of the day. playing videogames and hoping to zonk out by 9 or 10pm. anxiety at red line levels. taking the rest of the week off on PTO.
posted by lazaruslong at 8:20 AM on November 3 [23 favorites]


I’m a first time poll worker with my 19-year-old daughter here in Travis county Texas and things are going smoothly. I’ve already processed a first-time voter who was here with her daughter and it was a delightful experience.

Fingers crossed, everybody. And love to all of us.
posted by ZakDaddy at 8:21 AM on November 3 [75 favorites]


I'm doing the world a favour and not watching the results live as historically any event in which I am invested in ends up with the side I'm supporting losing.

I've taken the past week off paying attention to the News -- watching, reading, listening etc. Stuff ends up finding me anyway, but in general, it's proven one of the wiser things I've done of late. As for today, I suspect I'll monitor this thread occasionally but most my attention will go elsewhere. First up, I've got a bunch of logs to split for the fireplace and I promised the dog a good long walk.
posted by philip-random at 8:22 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


It is a windy, rainy day here on Whidbey and I am planning to spend the day playing video games that do not require internet access.
posted by The otter lady at 8:24 AM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I am so ready for this day to be over. I'm exhausted with all of the "this is the most important election of our lives" messaging, but I haven't spoken that out loud or even typed it anywhere until right now because I don't want to take away from the vitally important fervor that's getting people to go vote, because of course it's important. But for 230,000 people the most important election of their lives was 4 years ago and now what. Every time I see "most important election of our livvvesssss" it makes me feel genuinely sick.
posted by phunniemee at 8:25 AM on November 3 [57 favorites]


Yeah, I remember election night 2016....and then I remember Christmas 2016. The month after that election was so bad my brain buried it completely. And then I think: I blacked out too early! Things were still relatively okay then!

I'm trying to focus on all the good stories about determined anti-Trump voters. When I think about anyone else, I get so angry.
posted by grandiloquiet at 8:26 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


As an introvert, a guy with COPD, a mildly afflicted prepper, and someone with a profession that has enabled/required me to work from home, I’ve been mostly okay with being in a state of self-imposed quarantine for seven months. I’ve logged less than 30 miles on my car since March.

But of all the days in all that time, I wish desperately that today I could be with my friends. Thank you, MeFi, for being there.
posted by darkstar at 8:26 AM on November 3 [78 favorites]


Over the past several weeks I've been playing around obsessively with the toy on 538 that lets you pick winners in each state, and then it outputs what the odds look like given that set of constraints. As of their last refresh, they were giving Biden an 89% of winning the EC. I went through the entire state list, and gave each candidate any state or district in which they were favored to win by 95% or better. That made me feel a little better, because with those selections, Biden's chances of an EC win jump to 96%.

I tend to think that Biden is going to carry the EC, and that the Democratic Party will take the Senate. What I'm mostly worried about is whether or not that outcome will become clear quickly enough and BRIGHTLY enough to rule out GOP ratfuckery and violence.
posted by Ipsifendus at 8:27 AM on November 3 [17 favorites]


I dropped my ballot off at the courthouse over a week ago. Emotionally, I’ve kinda been in what I call “Honor Harrington At War” headspace.

Seen in the HH books, space battles happen at immense distances, between capitol ships using torpedoes. Once your ship has a firing solution on the enemy and the torpedoes are away, the reverse is true for your opponent. The distances are so long that there is no avoiding the incoming shots on either side. There is nothing to do but sit back and wait.

If the point defense cannons take out all the incoming attacks, then an hour from now we will still be alive.
If they fail, then we all die in flames in 59 minutes or less.

Waiting for the word that the last incoming torpedo has been taken out by the PDCs is how I feel about the election.

I am technician 4th class down in the bowels of this ship we call ‘Murrica. I had one switch to flip, and I did it. Now I’m either going to see my ship torn to pieces and left in flaming wreckage, or we go on sailing.

I for one plan to put my boots up on my control panel, light a joint, and close my eyes and put on some music. Whether we explode or not, that firing solution has been out of my hands for a while now.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:29 AM on November 3 [80 favorites]


As of last night, the US was at 98.7 million early votes. Likely to pass 100 million.

Michael McDonald is predicting 160 million votes total and a 67% turnout, which would be the highest total number of votes ever recorded and the highest turnout for a presidential election since 1900.
posted by rosiroo at 8:30 AM on November 3 [26 favorites]


Among Us: Election Edition: “Orange is sus, Vote him out.”
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:32 AM on November 3 [21 favorites]


I have this "worst case scenario" neuroses that I've been working on with a therapist for a while and I'm totally prepared for tonight.
posted by spikeleemajortomdickandharryconnickjrmints at 8:33 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Anyone have recommendations on results livestreams happening tonight from sources they trust (aside from mainstream media networks)?
posted by unid41 at 8:34 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Among Us: Election Edition: “Orange is sus, Vote him out.”
<3 kibler! don't miss the subtleties too, like White being the cop and voting for Orange. kibler's a good egg.


in addition to weed gummies and videogames i'll also be chilling in Chat all day because i love all of you wonderful goobers and i've spent every election with y'all since 2000, a year before i even had an account here. lots of folks discharging nervous energy in chat, feel free to come join us.
posted by lazaruslong at 8:35 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I’m about to kickoff a ten hour high stress workday, and I have no idea how I’m supposed to concentrate,
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:41 AM on November 3 [7 favorites]


**knocks gently on door**
**enters room**
**closes door**

Ahem, excuse me for a minute. I've been sent by the rest of the world to have a quick word. We were going to send Britain, because apparently you have a "special relationship". We assume that means you're banging, but honestly we don't understand a single thing Britain says, it's understated understatement from end to end. Anyway, Britain has some issues right now, so maybe it wouldn't be the best idea if you talked with Britain now. We also thought about sending Canada, but Canada is just standing outside in the snow, screaming southwards. All we got from Mexico was an eyeroll, so I guess it's me. I have a statement that we all agreed on.

**unfolds a piece of paper, starts reading**

Please make the loud man go away.

**folds paper back together**

That is all. And remember to hydrate today and get some rest if you can.

**opens door**
**leaves**
**closes door**
posted by Kattullus at 8:42 AM on November 3 [181 favorites]


All of us are simultaneously reliving a traumatic event from four years ago, and experiencing a brand new ongoing trauma in real time. It's awful. However you're dealing with it - refreshing the news, volunteering, binging Star Trek episodes, completely failing to focus on work - please, please go easy on yourself.
posted by theodolite at 8:44 AM on November 3 [65 favorites]


Today is the day bubbles collide and it's freaking me out.
posted by mazola at 8:49 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Hey all, if you're like me it helps to know when the polls close and results start trickling in so you know when you "have to" start watching. So here's my own personal guide on that front in case this is helpful to others. This is mostly factual with minimal commentary, though I count current polling averages as "facts" so take it with a grain of salt if necessary.

I've chosen the following states to watch for the presidential race for reasons that I hope are obvious: FL PA OH NC GA MI WI AZ (as well as less-close contests: TX IA MN NV)

This article from NYTimes is actually good on this front if you have any NYTimes articles available: "When do polls close? An hour-by-hour guide". I've summarized the highlights below, along with RealClearPolitics polling averages. As far as I know, 538 did not do state-by-state Monte Carlo predictions, so this is the best we've got on a state-by-state basis.

-
7pm ET = 4pm PT

KY Sen: McConnel favored over McGrath. It would be a great sign for dems if McGrath leads, and a good sign if it's at least close.

GA polls close (16 EVs), RCP average Trump +1.0
GA Sen x2: Perdue (R, incumb) v. Ossof (D); Loeffler (R, incumbent) v. Warnock (D). Warnock way up in that last one, since there appear to be multiple R's splitting the R vote.

-
7:30 ET = 4:30 PT

OH polls close (18 EVs), RCP average Trump +1.4

NC polls close (15 EVs), RCP average Trump +0.2
NC Sen: Tillis (R, incumbent) v. Cunningham (D)

-
8pm ET = 5pm PT - the fun really starts!

FL polls close (29 EVs), RCP average Biden +0.9. FL has already started counting early and mail-in ballots so they might have very substantial results early in the evening.

PA polls close (20 EVs), RCP average Biden +1.2. PA is widely predicted NOT to have substantial results available early in the evening.

-
9pm ET = 6pm PT

AZ polls close (11 EVs), RCP average Biden +0.9
AZ Sen: McSally (R - incumbent) trailing Kelly (D) by 5.7 in the surveys, on average.

MI polls close (16 EVs), RCP average Biden +4.2
MI Sen: closer race than one would hope for Gary Peters (D)

WI polls close (10 EVs), RCP average Biden +6.7

MN polls close (10 EVs), RCP average Biden +4.3

TX polls close (38 EVs) - normally safe R, this year much closer to a tossup. RCP average Trump +1.2.

And for those who like to see the EVs stack up in the blue column, NY polls close (29 EVs, safe dem)

-
10pm ET = 7pm PT

NV polls close (6 EVs), RCP average Biden +2.2

IA polls close (6 EVs), RCP average Trump +2.0
IA Sen: Ernst (R) slightly favored over Greenfield (D).

-
11pm ET = 8pm PT

Again, for those who like to see the blue numbers accumulate, polls close in CA, WA, and OR, for a total of 74 safe dem EVs.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 8:49 AM on November 3 [27 favorites]


I said it elsewhere - the silver lining of having broken my knee a month ago is that it has been leaving me a little too preoccupied to get overly-focused on the election.

My roommate listens to the 538 podcast and based on what he's heard there, Trump's path to a legit victory is SO narrow and involve SUCH a specific set of steps that if any one of them doesn't happen, he's toast. Our anxiety is more about whether some MAGA-head from outside the city decides he wants to Make A Statement and rounds up six friends and a whole lot of weapons and takes a ride into Times Square.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:50 AM on November 3 [13 favorites]


I was so so sure last time that it would turn out ok and it didn’t. This time I feel optimistic but I don’t trust that feeling. I can’t afford to, after the way I felt last time. I haven’t been able to imagine a world after today since the election started. I’m just trying to be like a sapling or whatever the fuck people say. Just existing and waiting.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:52 AM on November 3 [49 favorites]


I have been getting updates from my partner, who is working the polls in Indiana....

One report from the check-in desk: “161 ppl have been checked in by me. of those, 17 have attempted to sign my touch screen with a ball point pen. Just over 10% of these ppl have tried to sign my touch screen with a bic pen.”


Since you bring it up, I voted early in Indiana about three weeks ago. You know how when you sign electronically for your credit card at the grocery store or whatever, the stylus has a nice rigid tip? Not when you vote in Indiana, at least in my county. The stylus is about the size of a crayon (length and width) and has a rounded rubber tip, about the firmness of a pencil eraser or a little softer even. Creating increased friction between the stylus and the screen and messing up the signature even more.

The poll worker compared my signature at the site to the one on file and said something to the effect of "close enough, I guess." I'm a cis white male in a R-leaning suburb, so I'm not worried about my vote being counted, but this does not inspire confidence regarding the overall process.

If you're thinking that Indiana is not considered a swing state in the Presidential election, you're right, but my congressional district — safe R most years — is considered one of closest and most hotly contested in the entire country this year.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 8:52 AM on November 3 [8 favorites]


AZ polls close (11 EVs), RCP average Biden +0.9

Just to mention this but the RCP polling average is kind of bonkers since they don't weight good polls more than obviously bad polls like Susquehanna, Rasmussen and Trafalgar (all partisan pollers who seem to just confabulate their numbers to show Trump ahead) and so their averages are way low. Like all the final polls for PA are at between Biden +2 up to +5 but RCP has him at +1.9 (!).

The most reassuring thing I guess is that Biden is up even in the RCP averages for all the crucial states.
posted by dis_integration at 8:56 AM on November 3 [12 favorites]


I made a double batch of banana pudding. The really strong kind, with pound cake instead of Nilla Wafers, and real whipped cream folded in. A whole dozen eggs. I don't expect to consume much besides said pudding and hard cider today.
posted by rikschell at 8:56 AM on November 3 [38 favorites]


It's frustrating that the pandemic makes it impossible to watch the returns with friends. And forget about any modern equivalent of Alfred Eisenstaedt's Kiss in Times Square, V-J Day 1945. I'm hosting an election house party with friends tonight on Zoom, but it ain't going to be the same.
posted by PhineasGage at 8:59 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Nate Cohn from the NYT on the RCP:

"One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.

RCP's averages this cycle just haven't been a fair average of the polling that's out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump."
posted by soundguy99 at 9:02 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


I've been working through the what to watch when numbers like Joey Buttafoucault.

I've concluded the first thing to hope for is a strong Dem pickup in GA. They appear to have the best balance of polls closing early, absentee votes already being processed early, and not expecting big shifts in the count after tonight.

To be clear, losing there isn't a horrible bad sign, but winning there is a hugely positive sign and we should know early-ish. Here's to hoping it will come through and reduce everyone's blood pressure a little.
posted by bcd at 9:05 AM on November 3 [9 favorites]


MetaFilter: a double batch of banana pudding. The really strong kind
posted by neroli at 9:05 AM on November 3 [24 favorites]


What you can and can’t wear....
I’m poll-watching in PA, and voters are allowed to wear campaign attire, so it must vary by state.
I know in DC years ago, my wife was not allowed to vote wearing a. Clinton shirt.
posted by MtDewd at 9:05 AM on November 3


Just a shameless plug that if you need respite, we're doing the whole MST3k thingy all day (and all night).
posted by valkane at 9:05 AM on November 3 [7 favorites]


My college sophomore daughter called me around 9:30 worried because one of her idiot teenage friends on IG posted that "they" (unspecified) were going to mass murder all the POC and LGBTQ+ people if Biden wins. Once I talked her down from that particular ledge, we talked about the actual possibility of political violence, the likelihood of it happening in her tiny Massachusetts college town (< 0%), and what network to watch for the election coverage (NOT FOX). It breaks my heart that her entire life has been lived in these past 20 years of increasing insanity and that we had to have this conversation this morning.
posted by briank at 9:06 AM on November 3 [33 favorites]


Soooo....four years ago the Trumpening happened. The week afterward, my then-student visa was going to expire, and despite months of desperate searching, I hadn't been able to find a job that would sponsor a work visa that would let us stay in the UK. Mrs. Example and I had to scrape up a large pile of emergency money and file a last-minute application for further leave to remain that would almost certainly have gotten denied, but it bought us time and legal standing to stay while I continued looking for a job. It was an incredibly stressful period of our lives...one of the most stressful, really.

Fast-forward to four years later. I managed to find a job that sponsored a work visa for me, and eventually we applied for and got indefinite leave to remain (i.e. permanent residency--we're street-legal for good now). We're much better off and so much less stressed.

Now, I can't say for sure that there's any correlation between our immigration status and the outcome of presidential elections, or that the whole luck/karma/correspondence thing works in the opposite temporal direction if you reverse the polarity or whatever, but who knows? Weirder things have happened, and I'll take whatever hope I can get at the moment, y'know?
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 9:06 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Florida officials have said we can expect close to complete results pretty quickly tonight, though if it's close, we may not be able to make the call.

My roommate listens to the 538 podcast and based on what he's heard there, Trump's path to a legit victory is SO narrow and involve SUCH a specific set of steps that if any one of them doesn't happen, he's toast.

If memory serves me correctly, Trump must win Florida to have any hope at all, so an early Biden call in that state (TTTCS) would be welcome news indeed.

I tend to think that Biden is going to carry the EC, and that the Democratic Party will take the Senate. What I'm mostly worried about is whether or not that outcome will become clear quickly enough and BRIGHTLY enough to rule out GOP ratfuckery and violence.

Not only that, but that it'll be a clear message to Democrats that we don't want to be ruled by Republicans or under Republican rules, and there's no reason at all to consider what they want over the next two years. Let's put Democratic priorities in place, and let the American people see the results for themselves.
posted by Gelatin at 9:08 AM on November 3 [29 favorites]


And forget about any modern equivalent of Alfred Eisenstaedt's Kiss in Times Square, V-J Day 1945.

Considering that photograph documents a sexual assault, good.
posted by Lexica at 9:08 AM on November 3 [39 favorites]


a reference that like only the three people who’ve read ada palmer’s terra ignota series will get:

well, looks like the olympics end today. hope the closing ceremonies are good.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 9:08 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Well, even if he’s voted out, Trump can at least say he got his Wall built, after all.

Ironically, Mexico probably would have been happy to pay for this one...
posted by darkstar at 9:10 AM on November 3




Emotionally, I’ve kinda been in what I call “Honor Harrington At War” headspace.

Beratna, I can't begin to express my disappointment in the example you've chosen.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:15 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


a reference that like only the three people who’ve read ada palmer’s terra ignota series will get:


it me
posted by lazaruslong at 9:16 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Watching (and doomscrolling) from Mexico. My two best friends just became US citizens in 2019 so they got to vote now. One of them said her mail ballot never came and had given up hope of voting this cycle but all my twitter scrolling paid off in that I got her the info necessary for her to figure out how to get a new ballot. She just sent me a pic of her waiting in line.
posted by CrazyLemonade at 9:18 AM on November 3 [56 favorites]


Sisters of St. Joseph to pray for peace all hours of Election Day.

I would prefer they pray for justice.
posted by Justinian at 9:20 AM on November 3 [51 favorites]


what's the going rate for a pardon? Trump should be able to make quite a bundle.
posted by sineater at 9:27 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Still smooth sailing here, although a Trump truck (rambo Trump flags and all) has driven by on the nearby highway several times.
posted by Gray Duck at 9:29 AM on November 3


How it's currently playing out in my head:

screams into the void
posted by swift at 9:29 AM on November 3 [13 favorites]


From the National Journal, an optimistic take: 'Don't expect a contested election'. They argue that the question we should be asking is whether Biden's win will be "skinny" or a landslide.
posted by rosiroo at 9:30 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Checking in from Iqaluit. I had the chance to work at a medical clinic up here this week and figured it'd be a good place to escape from everything because a) the clinic is ridiculously busy and b) the Internet is pretty spotty here.

Then we got hit by a blizzard this morning. Most of our patients are cancelled because they're flying in from remote communities. But for some reason, the internet is working great.

*doomscroll doomscroll doomscroll
posted by saturday_morning at 9:33 AM on November 3 [40 favorites]


Yeah well, the National Journal needs to go outside, turn around three times, curse and spit, lest they tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing.
posted by mrgoat at 9:33 AM on November 3 [24 favorites]


Happy F5 Day, everyone. It's beginning.
Republicans in the battleground state of Pennsylvania filed a lawsuit this morning against Montgomery County election officials, alleging they illegally began to process mail ballots before Election Day and are giving voters a chance to fix deficient ballots. In Pennsylvania, mail ballots cannot be counted until the start of election day. Some counties don’t begin counting until the day after election day.
Be on the lookout for similar actions throughout the week and coming months. There will likely be a lot. What I expect to happen today is for Republicans to set the legal groundwork like this so that when they try to pull a red mirage tonight, they will be ready to immediately begin ordering vote counts stop. That and encouraging stochastic terrorists to physically destroy ballots.
posted by Lonnrot at 9:35 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


How it's currently playing out in my head: Trump calls an early victory and the media doesn't fall for it

There is nothing in the Constitution about "declaring victory" meaning even as much as a bucket of spit.

I see (TTTCS) the Republicans experiencing much the same thing as we did four years ago: Seeing an Electoral College tide slowly sweep across the nation, crushing state by state any hope of them pulling out a victory. There are last-minute fan fictions about SCOTUS rulings or faithless electors, but the writing is on the wall: Biden won the election, and Trump cost the Republicans the Senate. David Brooks starts writing dishonest columns -- more dishonest columns -- about "looking forward, not back."

But I don't see Democrats as being in a forgiving mood at all. The Republicans have showed that they do not bargain in good faith, so the Democrats need to act accordingly And they must prosecute as much criminality as they can, especially Barr and Trump. Nixon's Attorney General did time, after all.
posted by Gelatin at 9:35 AM on November 3 [20 favorites]


I'm really... REALLY sick of people actually thinking that all the polls said Hillary would win in 2016. The polls were not showing her winning by a blowout and Trump had a bigger percentage chance of winning.

If, like me, you were watching Sam Wang's model in 2016 you'd understand how people felt that way. Their model was based on polls. At one point they had to add a cap at 99% to keep it from projecting a flat 100% odds in favor of Clinton. This was from the Princeton Election Consortium, which seemed credible to me at the time.
posted by paper chromatographologist at 9:35 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I'm planning to be drunk until we have officially declared a new President. If that takes 4 years, so be it.
posted by Lame_username at 9:36 AM on November 3 [50 favorites]


Sisters of St. Joseph to pray for peace all hours of Election Day.

I would prefer they pray for justice.


Flagged as fantastic.
posted by Gelatin at 9:36 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Y'know, I would've been happy to answer the phone for an election poll caller. Like many people my phone is filtered to avoid spam calls although I see the number/calling location (Mali!) on the missed call list. I wish it were possible to allow polls because despite all the algorithm finessing, I don't think they are all that accurate and if better polls meant less election stress, I'm for it although I know it's not foolproof.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 9:38 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


If there’s anything we should have learned from 2016 it’s that turning 3 times cursing and spitting doesn’t work. So we can stop doing it.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 9:38 AM on November 3 [7 favorites]


One of my big wishes is that, whatever happens, this ambivalent map has died.
posted by Going To Maine at 9:38 AM on November 3 [8 favorites]


non-scalable barrier is predictably theatrical.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 9:39 AM on November 3 [8 favorites]


[One comment deleted. Please don't post invented hypothetical "here's how it will go badly" scenarios.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:39 AM on November 3 [16 favorites]


538 putting it at 10% for Trump is just too high a risk for me to feel chilled out about it. You wouldn't board a plane with a 10% chance an unqualified pilot would get into the cockpit. Plus the shenanigans: if you're even discussing "peaceful transfer of power" things are Not Going Well.

Good luck, US mefites. We're all counting on you all counting.
posted by Wrinkled Stumpskin at 9:39 AM on November 3 [21 favorites]


I'm coming up with a Joe Biden s'more for a socially distanced wine and s'mores session at the back of the house tonight. Think the Joe Biden s'more is standard recipe but replace the chocolate piece with a small scope of chocolate chip ice cream (apparently his favorite flavor). Kamala Harris' s'more I'm still working on - I know she has a love of Indian food - not sure if I can get any small Indian dessert treats (like gulab jamun) anywhere nearby. Open to suggestions on that. A Trump s'more would simply be ketchup on a plain cracker - I don't intend to make them.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 9:42 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Well, yes, it's corporate kleptocracy either with, or without, overt racism. I know which I'd pick. To make it better one has to vigorously tackle down-ticket offices. Something the pig-fuckers have done for, oh, decades.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:42 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I would prefer they pray for justice.

Thank you. The amount of obnoxious people calling for a peace that's nothing more than an absence of tension is driving me fucking bananas today.

I can disagree on the Pats being a better team than the 49ers or whether bell peppers belong on pizza. I refuse to argue about someone's basic fucking humanity.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:43 AM on November 3 [42 favorites]


To make it better one has to vigorously tackle down-ticket offices. Something the pig-fuckers have done for, oh, decades.

Yes. Those decades are gone, however, and I don't think we really have the decades remaining free and clear, fat and happy to really change things in our favor before Shit Gets Real, but I will be happy if that turns out to be incorrect and that vigorous tackling gets done, but I am skeptical to say the least.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 9:45 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


My expectation is that the lesson the Democratic leadership will draw from a Biden victory is that they need concede nothing at all to the left wing of the party.

Most likely. I hope though, that enough people understand that a Biden win (TTTCS) can't end anything. We all have to work just as hard pushing for progressive legislation, universal healthcare, social justice, judicial reform, law enforcement reform, UBI if that's your thing, prosecution for all the criminals in the current adminstration, reforms to prevent future corruption, and all the other things.

And then here's the trick: We have to never stop pushing EVER.
posted by mrgoat at 9:49 AM on November 3 [26 favorites]


I hope though, that enough people understand that a Biden win (TTTCS) can't end anything.

I hope so, too! I have almost as much faith in the public as I do in the Democratic leadership in this regard, though.

I am trying a new thing where I speak without sarcasm (well...without much sarcasm) or contempt on the internet, and MetaFilter seemed like the best (only?) place to make this effort, but my feelings are my feelings, although I wish they were not.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 9:52 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Watching from Kigali, voted a month ago, already started drinking, probably won't make it to 6pm eastern.
In 2016 I was in Riyadh for the election, I hope I don't get shocked in the morning again.
posted by PHINC at 9:54 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Thank you. The amount of obnoxious people calling for a peace that's nothing more than an absence of tension is driving me fucking bananas today.

Well, the only way we get any peace this week is if there's justice. So.
posted by saturday_morning at 9:54 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I'm not sure there are many of you left left reading MetaFilter, but if for some reason you are planning on voting third-party this election, and you live in a swing state, we should talk vote-swapping. I live in a completely-safely-blue state where one more D vote won't matter much. If you want your candidate of choice to have your vote count toward the national total, but are not enough of a nihilist to want that decision to potentially impact any electoral votes, I'll vote for your person here if you vote for Biden where you are. DM me!
posted by Mayor West at 9:55 AM on November 3 [31 favorites]


My expectation is that the lesson the Democratic leadership will draw from a Biden victory is that they need concede nothing at all to the left wing of the party.

Hogwash. Leaving aside the fact that they've already made concessions, including a platform more to the left than Hillary Clinton's in 2016, which at the time was the farthest left in modern times, Biden knows full well that the left is part of his coalition, and that them staying at home in 2022 might at least give him two years of a Republican Senate.

My further expectation is that they will compromise with the Republicans on things they don't need to, because that's just who they are.

Even if you're right that "that's just who they are" -- and for the record I disagree -- there's no benefit at all to Biden or the Democrats to doing so. Do you think he just forgot that Obama tried to court even one Republican vote for the ACA, and got none?

Once Trumpism has been (temporarily?) repudiated, they can go back to Business As Usual.

Which would just bring Trumpism roaring back, to the Democrats' cost -- to say nothing of the American peoples'! -- and Biden knows it. Why would they do so? What's in it for them to turn their backs on Democratic principles -- first and foremost the John Lewis Voting Rights Act -- just at the point where they're in a position to implement them, and when doing so only puts the Republicans back in power?

For decades the so-called "liberal media" defined "bipartisanship" as "Democrats doing what Republicans want." The media has failed us, is continuing to fail us, and will fail us in countless ways -- look for Republicans expressing concern about defects to be a regular feature -- but one can't argue with results, and there's only one way to get them -- governing as Democrats, not Republicans. Say what you will about Biden, but he isn't a fool.

(As to not putting Elizabeth Warren in as Treasure Secretary -- well, I wish he would too, but I doubt the Senate majority will be strong enough to withstand giving a Republican governor an opportunity to appoint a replacement.)
posted by Gelatin at 9:55 AM on November 3 [27 favorites]


My sister made sure to text me a picture of her Trump flag and say that she voted. Glad I could cancel her out.

Covid will probably mean no family holiday gathering this election year, and you know what, that's ok.
posted by emjaybee at 9:58 AM on November 3 [50 favorites]


I want Biden to win because someone smarter than me once said:
Presidential elections are not about your perfect choice getting elected.
It’s about when legislation which you care desperately about comes up, whose administration would you rather fight to get it passed?
I would rather fight to drag Biden’s administration to the left than fight Trump’s regime and their brownshirts to salvage some scraps of what America used to be from amongst the smoking ruins and Confederate flags.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:59 AM on November 3 [54 favorites]


Biden knows full well that the left is part of his coalition, and that them staying at home in 2022

They won't, though. They don't. That's the lesson they're going to draw from this. We can do what we want and you'll still vote for us because what's the alternative? Trump has been a bit of a godsend to their campaign efforts, you have to admit that! You can call it hogwash, but platforms mean nothing. I hope I'm wrong! I don't expect to be, though.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 9:59 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


For those who need an evening distraction at 7 pm, Mo Willems will be hosting a doodle session with National Symphony musicians playing.
posted by Hermeowne Grangepurr at 10:00 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


[Heyyyyy, it's cortex, just generally reminding everybody that this thread is gonna be better overall if folks can try to focus more on personal stories and Stuff That's Actually Happening and stay away from venting ambient anxiety with either dour speculation or side arguments about things past and present and future in politics. It's gonna be a long day, we're many hours from the first polls closing. Go easy on yourself and everybody else reading. Marathon, not sprint.]
posted by cortex (staff) at 10:01 AM on November 3 [63 favorites]


Yes, I'm definitely done with my particular brand of Doubt Casting (although it appears to have been deleted, which is, I think, absurd) for now. Sometimes I just can't let things pass uncommented on, which is a personality flaw for sure.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 10:02 AM on November 3


I think there’s every reason for optimism with a Biden victory. It’s pretty clear that, if Biden wins, AND we take the Senate, we will see several points of MAJOR progress on many fronts, even if we don’t get everything we want.

Look at the legislation that the US House has passed in the past few years, that then got stymied in the Senate. I expect that those bills will move through readily in the first year or so of a Biden term. Not to mention overturning some of Trump’s egregious Executive Orders. Not to mention putting a stop to Trump’s gutting of the Civil Service. Not to mention ending his judicial appointments, patronage, and pardons.

The HR-1 Voting Rights Act passes.

No more transgender bans.

A more humane immigration policy, including a task force to reunite children with their parents.

An actual federal pandemic response.

No more attacks on Obamacare. Maybe even an expansion to a public option (*crossing fingers*).

Rejoining the various global partnerships that we rejected.

A semi-coherent foreign policy.

At least some attention given to environmental issues.

No more attacks on welfare programs, like SNAP.

A new stimulus for people suffering from the pandemic and economic downturn.

A repudiation of autocracy and White Supremacy.

I can think of a dozen other areas where a Biden presidency will make a significant, even MAJOR, improvement in a lot of people’s lives. Indeed, that’s why most of us are supporting him.

It’s not everything I think we need, but there’s no reason to feel that a Biden victory today is a defeat for America.
posted by darkstar at 10:05 AM on November 3 [45 favorites]


Here's hoping I don't get called out in this election thread.
posted by Sphinx at 10:09 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Just a random Canadian chiming in here. Whatever the outcome, just know there's a bunch of people who understand that a whole bunch of you have persevered through all of this and fought like hell to change the situation.

I will be raising a glass to all of you while I'm perched on the edge of my seat tonight like a constipated gargoyle.

Sic semper tyrannis.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:09 AM on November 3 [42 favorites]


Maryland has same-day voter registration, which is why one of my boss's clients was able to go directly from being sworn in at his naturalization ceremony this morning to casting a vote for Biden.
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:10 AM on November 3 [143 favorites]


It is probably a telling comment on this election season that WNYC is devoting two minutes of one of its shows right now to a guided meditation session.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:10 AM on November 3 [11 favorites]


The lines for early voting in my district were 3-4 hours every day, so we decided that voting today would have to be better since there would be more polling places. I got there a half hour after the polls opened and the line was 45 minutes, so I felt pretty smart.

A couple of hours later there was no line at all. So now I feel pretty dumb. But in a good way.
posted by Mchelly at 10:12 AM on November 3 [17 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:17 AM on November 3 [22 favorites]


Heading in to work for a couple hours- we closed down our outdoor seating last week and plan to soft open our distanced indoor seating tomorrow night (despite this island seeing a COVID surge, gulp), so I'll get that set up, hit the liquor store hard, and be back in front of my screen before 7 pm east coast time. I have a good feeling about this. I really enjoy watching elections with all you fine people. Let's kick some ass!
posted by vrakatar at 10:19 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Dear 2020,

Please end your term limits a little early this year. Like, yesterday. The thing is, you've really been a complete bastard and already overstayed your welcome. Just go ahead and go. It's not us, it's you.

Remember, we'll always have... uh... never mind, forget it. Just go.

Signed,
All of us.
posted by BigHeartedGuy at 10:19 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by cortex at 10:29 AM on November 3 [95 favorites −] [!]

I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:17 PM on November 3 [1 favorite +] [!]


I like the idea of repeating this every few hours to keep the enthusiasm up.
posted by neroli at 10:20 AM on November 3 [33 favorites]


I kinda wish I were religious, because if I were, I could pray. But I'm not, and I don't think any of the various gods dispense a one-day conversion. So I'll just hope. Not very efficacious, I suppose, but that's my plan for the day. Or the weeks or months. I also hope that Trump learns how to lose gracefully, but that hope would need some sort of Godly Intervention, so, never mind.
posted by kozad at 10:21 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Banana pudding update: turns out I bought potato chips this week! So I have some savory to go with my sweet. Going to crack open a beer and have my second bowl of pudding.
posted by rikschell at 10:21 AM on November 3 [25 favorites]


As a dispositionally anxious person, I must say, I find myself only mildly worried today. Biden is a more likely winner than any election in my lifetime. The polls are all in agreement, the legal challenges seem unlikely to succeed at the scale needed to swing it, and Trump et al. are already acting like they've kind of given up. I think Biden is going to win, and I'm not afraid of jinxes. That could be wrong of course -- the 5% (Economist) or 10% (538) odds seem reasonable -- but speaking as someone who gave Trump a 25% chance back in the spring of 2016 and a 50% chance in the fall, this time I think he's done. No time to celebrate, of course, but determined, cautiously confident energy seems in order today.
posted by chortly at 10:23 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I've already eaten too much of the boy's Halloween candy. Today is going to kill me.
posted by Scattercat at 10:23 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I'd be interested in that pudding recipe.
posted by SaltySalticid at 10:23 AM on November 3 [12 favorites]


US permanent resident here, so you know the past four years have been really fun for me. Thank you to everyone voting, poll working, volunteering, etc.!
posted by May Kasahara at 10:24 AM on November 3 [8 favorites]


The MA Governor does not automatically get to appoint a replacement senator if Warren leaves. See:

https://prospect.org/blogs/tap/about-warrens-senate-seat/

posted by andreap at 10:26 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]




Banana pudding update: turns out I bought potato chips this week! So I have some savory to go with my sweet. Going to crack open a beer and have my second bowl of pudding.

Hey now. You told us hard cider goes with banana pudding. What's this sneaky beverage substitution?
posted by bcd at 10:26 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Howdy folks.

For reasons that should be fairly obvious, I can't post a long comment, but if you want something to do rather than endlessly refresh some websites, how about talking to voters? We've got Nevada and Texas. I wish I had a textbank if that isn't your thing, but alas, I do not this year. (I have a whole long saga of what my plans were this cycle-- they involved Florida; but Covid and a sick mom struck them down. Ah well, we do what we can, where we can.)

Much love to you all, and hang in there!

Mods, feel free to strike this down or tell me to put it somewhere else if last-minute mobilization isn't in the appropriate spot.
posted by dogheart at 10:26 AM on November 3 [13 favorites]


Well my "don't scroll and scroll and scroll here and on SomethingAwful" resolution is clearly an abject failure, so I'm gonna go out now and buy bacon and wine and ice cream and whatever else catches my eye so that at least the rest of the evening's scrolling can be done in comfort.
posted by showbiz_liz at 10:26 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


The plan around here: I’m taking 1/2 a Klonopin as soon as my kid is asleep and going to bed early. Tomorrow I’m going to spend as much time as possible outdoors. I’ve promised myself the mental space I am lucky enough to be able to arrange.
posted by Lawn Beaver at 10:27 AM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Voted as usual at the local school gymnasium, mid morning so no lines, the regular officer at the door said it had been steady. Usually check the machine counter but they had been feeding early ballots so not accurate about walk in's. From listening to cable news there seem to be few or no issues about the militias hanging around polling places, which is good. Some of the news shows yesterday made it sound like we were in for insurrection. Currently the big "news" is a polling place extending hours due to a printer problem, so good, boring business as usual.
posted by sammyo at 10:28 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I think folks should temper they’re expectations for progress if the dems take the House and Senate with the Presidency.

The bills that were sent to die in the Senate are good, generally, but I feel like they were red meat for the more progressive parts of the base that were allowed to head to the senate specifically because they would die there. I would not expect these to re-appear in front of a dem Senate unless they’re widely liked policies outside the progressive sphere.

I may also be deeply cynical about Democratic Party policy priorities.
posted by Slackermagee at 10:30 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Checking in from Pinellas County, FL: rode past 3 polling places including one of the busiest early voting locations in downtown St Pete and did not see a single line. And thankfully, no "Y'all Qaeda" waving Trump signs like in the previous weeks.
posted by photoslob at 10:33 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Currently the big "news" is a polling place extending hours due to a printer problem

Printers continuing their long reign as The Literal Worst Piece of Technology, I see.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 10:35 AM on November 3 [52 favorites]


Slackermagee, you’re forgetting protocol! You’re supposed to follow up a pessimistic comment with a promise to eat a cake with those words in icing, if it turns out you’re wrong.

That way, it’s win-win: either the good thing happens after all or at least you get cake!

Er...wait...that’s...not how that works. I think I got that wrong. But I can still recommend the cake!
posted by darkstar at 10:38 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Earlier in October I voted in my 13th presidential election. Fresh out of college, all starry-eyed and optimistic, McGovern vs Nixon was my first plunge into the frigid political waters (unfortunately my "Dick Nixon Before He Dicks You" t-shirt is long gone). As you can imagine, I have seen some horrendous shit in 48 years of political participation but nothing could have prepared me for these last four years. Nothing. Here's to a brighter, or at least less murky future for us all...
posted by jim in austin at 10:38 AM on November 3 [32 favorites]


If Biden governs as an Eisenhower Republican, it will still be better than the alternative, which is essentially Lindbergh Fascism.
posted by acb at 10:38 AM on November 3 [34 favorites]


Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.
posted by swift at 10:39 AM on November 3 [36 favorites]


I got my ballot in yesterday.

Here in Manassas, Virginia, things are quiet so far. Chilly, clear blue skies.

Online, I'm asking for stories of academics on this day.
posted by doctornemo at 10:40 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


This is encouraging:

Lina Hidalgo, Harris County Judge (i.e. county executive) tweets,
NEW: Harris County has now crossed 1.5 million votes, with 83k votes at 11:30am. Keep it coming! We now have more votes cast than 11 states have people. We’re coming for you next, Idaho.
More votes, more better.
posted by bcd at 10:44 AM on November 3 [43 favorites]


I'm cleaning up my garage because the backordered pandemic chest freezer picked today to show up.

Whatever that means.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:44 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Ratfuckery has begun:

Eric Cortellessa: The GOP commissioner of Lancaster County, in southern Pennsylvania, is REFUSING TO COUNT MAIL-IN BALLOTS THAT COME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY UNTIL THERE IS A SUPREME COURT RULING

pic of tweet from commissioner Ray D'agostino that says: Between Wednesday and Friday this week, mail ballots that came in Monday and Tuesday will be processed, and ballots received Wenesday through Friday with post marks by 8pm on Election Day (or no postmark) will be set aside until a decision by the US Supreme Court or some other direction.
posted by Dashy at 10:47 AM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I have been doomscrolling for, oh, fours years. I really do think we're going to need a new word for the happy scrolling we're going to be doing once it's clear Biden-Harris won and we all want to see more and more and more and more positive headlines.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:48 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


If you have money and want to put it use today, polls.pizza gets pizza to people in long lines. (I have no data on how effective they are, just a fun URL.)
posted by Going To Maine at 10:49 AM on November 3


Poundcake: Cream 1/2 lb butter (room temp) with 1-1/3 cup sugar. Stir in 1/2 tsp baking powder and 1/4 tsp salt. In separate bowl mash 2-3 bananas and beat in 4 eggs and 2 tsps vanilla extract. Blend this in with butter mixture and then add 1-3/4 cup white flour. Pour into greased & floured loaf pan and bake at 350F for 1 hour 15 minutes. Let cool and eat yourself a couple of big slices at least while you make the pudding.

Pudding: Heat up 7 cups milk in the microwave so it doesn't take forever on the stovetop. Then pour it into a saucepan at medium til it approaches (but does not reach) boiling. Meanwhile whisk together 1 cup milk, 2 cups sugar, 1/2 tsp salt, and 1-1/2 cups flour, then add to hot milk. Stir constantly over medium heat about 5-10 minutes until thick. Remove from heat while you crack 8 eggs in a bowl and beat them together. Pour a cup of the hot milk mixture into the eggs and whisk, then whisk the egg mixture back into the saucepan and put back on medium-low heat, stirring for another 5-10 minutes. Then stir in 3 tsps vanilla and let cool (ideally refrigerate overnight).

Assemble: Mash 3-4 bananas. Stir into pudding. Slice up 6-8 bananas. Stir into pudding. Cut poundcake into 1 cm cubes. Stir into pudding. Whip 1 pint of heavy cream. Fold into pudding. Eat pudding.

This recipe is drawn from the banana pudding at the Magnolia Bakery in Manhattan and the Moosewood Restaurant Book of Desserts. It makes a large amount of pudding. Enjoy it with hard cider (apple or pear). You may also enjoy potato chips and beer.
posted by rikschell at 10:50 AM on November 3 [75 favorites]


As someone living in a deep red state with an entirely Republican Congressional delegation, I grow weary of reflexive pessimism regarding the Democratic Party. I mean...I understand it, absolutely. But the thing is, I've been calling Don fucking Bacon's office about every two weeks for the past four years, fulling knowing that no matter how many such calls he gets, or from how many different people, he isn't going to one single thing that's not in lockstep with the GOP platform. On the other hand, if Kara Eastman wins today, I'm pretty sure that when I call to express my support for Democratic policies, she'll listen.
posted by Ipsifendus at 10:50 AM on November 3 [30 favorites]


Banana pudding update: turns out I bought potato chips this week! So I have some savory to go with my sweet. Going to crack open a beer and have my second bowl of pudding.

Honestly I'm really glad to hear this, I was feeling worried for you having pudding and cider all day, something savory was definitely needed!
posted by JenMarie at 10:52 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


@EmmyA2:
2020
24 hours to go
I wanna be sedated


Yes this is what I decided on

I’m not going to be sober until Wednesday at the earliest
posted by schadenfrau at 10:52 AM on November 3 [7 favorites]


More Election Day comestibles: Tasting History makes election cake (SLYT, recording of a livestream).
posted by Lexica at 10:56 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Not really pertinent to the federal elections, but this year's voter turnout in Oregon is wild. We're at 2.16 million ballots returned as of this morning, which is already more than any other election in state history despite not including election day returns. That puts us at 73% of ballots already returned. Typically there's a final push of 15%-20% on election day itself, so even if some of that has been cannibalized by earlier returns, we're probably looking at 85%+ turnout, which would be the state's highest ever turnout rate (at least in the Secretary of State's ballot count history going back to the 2000 general election).

What makes this truly astounding is that the state's motor voter law went into effect in 2016, so over the past few years that's been driving an increase in registered voters, but you'd expect them to be lower-propensity voters since they're not choosing to register (since party registration isn't required, many are defaulting to Non-Affliated, a group that now outnumbers registered Republicans). Getting these high turnout rates while expanding the electorate at the same time is really heartening to see.
posted by bassooner at 10:56 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Here's a textbank from @mattmfm: TEXT OUT THE VOTE IN TEXAS WITH TEAM JOE
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 10:58 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


> I’m not going to be sober until Wednesday at the earliest

I just ran over to the liquor store on my lunch hour (not for champagne), and when I came back to the library one of the security guards said "Someone's gonna have a party tonight!" When I replied that I was either going to be celebrating or drinking away my sorrows depending on what happens south of the border tonight they said "Why, what's going on?"
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:00 AM on November 3 [34 favorites]


Jim in austin: I have seen some horrendous shit in 48 years of political participation but nothing could have prepared me for these last four years. Nothing.

You know, I'm glad you said that, Jim. Over the past four years I have periodically asked my mother the following questions:
"Is this administration worse than Nixon?"
"Is the country as divided as it was in 1968"?
"Do you think this is worse than it was back then?".

Her answers started out as "No, things were much worse then". "The country was much more divided then".

Strangely, that made me feel better for reasons I can't really articulate very well. Maybe just a reassurance that it's bad, but not THAT bad. I dunno.

So, about 2 years in, her answers changed to "This is worse than I've ever seen it". She's 75 and has seen a lot, so I value her perspective.

A little story (if you'll permit me): Back in the 1972 presidential election, my parents both voted for McGovern. The next day the Orlando Sentinel published the voting data for the various districts. In the McGovern column for our district, there were only 2 votes. My parents laughed as they realized those two votes were theirs.

I voted in person today in CT, with my son. This is his first presidential election vote and I was really proud to be there with him.
posted by sundrop at 11:02 AM on November 3 [58 favorites]




snuffleupagus: I'm cleaning up my garage because the backordered pandemic chest freezer picked today to show up.

Whatever that means.



I looked at those, and almost got one. But I finally went with an Alpicool portable fridge/freezer. Less storage space, but it fit my needs better, which was prepping for off-grid operation. It has a compressor, so it gets down to freezing, unlike those piezoelectric coolers. But it’s small enough and pulls low enough wattage that I can run it off of my Jackery power bank (which itself can be recharged from a couple of portable solar panels).

Having SOME kind of backup turned out to be super-good, because three weeks ago, my big fridge compressor went out and I was able to hook up the Alpicool. It kept about $100 worth of meat frozen, so it almost paid for itself.

Still, I envy you your chest freezer.

posted by darkstar at 11:05 AM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I'm really glad to be here with all of you. A lot of my friends are being really edgy and "I don't even care who wins because both sides are the same" and it's so, so hard to engage with them as someone who is honestly scared. You are all beautiful people and I'm glad of you.
posted by corb at 11:05 AM on November 3 [95 favorites]


We were going to send Britain, because apparently you have a "special relationship". We assume that means you're banging, but honestly we don't understand a single thing Britain says

Nah, we just drink at the same pubs and have slept with some of the same dodgy oligarchs...

As a brit, it's normal that when the US sneezes, we catch a cold, but in 2016 both of our countries were surprised by devastating surges of xenophobic nationalism, throwing sanity under a bus. It felt like we woke up, and didn't recognise our countries any more.

So I not only hope Biden-Harris win, but in a crushing landslide, taking the senate too - the fascists won't be gone, but they will be outnumbered and in retreat. And that would mean maybe there's some hope my own benighted isle too might come to its senses, and start to value the rule of law and democracy again.

Plus you guys won't have a fascist incompetent dictator-wannabe in charge any more, which would be, you know, a bonus.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:05 AM on November 3 [21 favorites]


And then here's the trick: We have to never stop pushing EVER.

I'm actually looking forward to this part! After getting Pat Toomey bullshit form emails for four years, I'm thrilled to be able to contact my democratic representatives for meaningful change. I know Bob Casey's staffers will actually have to listen to me and respond.

Plus, Pennsylvania will have a senate seat and our governorship open for midterms. There's no letting up.
posted by gladly at 11:07 AM on November 3 [13 favorites]


Sunday while driving past the liquor store I wondered "do they have that maple syrup barrel-aged whiskey I wanted?" then called my wife and said "Should I go look to see if it's in stock?" After some discussion, we agreed that I will look for it on Wednesday or Thursday, because while having it at home might be a comfort tonight, it might also be a bad idea to have a fifth of really good liquor on hand on a night when we might be strongly tempted to down it all and both have to work in the morning.

We have beer, we'll stick to beer, we'll try to go to bed hopeful rather than shocked and upset like we did 4 years ago. My "I Voted" sticker has been sitting on my nightstand for weeks now, we mailed the ballots in the day we got them and verified that both were received and will be counted. We have done our part. But the waiting is kind of killing us.

If you are a US citizen and have not voted yet, get your ass out there and do it. Because I really want a new president, and I really want a GOOD excuse to finally buy that bottle of whiskey.
posted by caution live frogs at 11:09 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Utah just passed its 2016 total turnout at 11:30am local time - and I believe is well over 70% turnout right now.

I mean I'm not expecting any miracles but I said a while back if Biden can keep within 20 points its a good night for him (really hard to tell - 2016 and 2012 results were impacted by there being LDS candidates on the ballot taking an oversized portion of the vote - Romney in 2012 and McMullin in 2016 - and going back to 2008 Obama lost by 28 points to McCain). Latest State polls show Trump by around 10-11%....which is incredibly low....dare I hope Biden can bring the Dems inside 10 points...oh to live in a state which is one slight shade off the deepest red.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 11:09 AM on November 3 [13 favorites]


The lines for early voting in my district were 3-4 hours every day

I waited until last Thursday, and I enjoyed absolutely no line. Just belly up to the table and do the thing. The week before, it looked like at least an hour wait, maybe two.
posted by thelonius at 11:11 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Team New Chest Freezer here. I live with a couple of vegetarians so it isn't the stereotypical Box O' Meat. But it's a sufficient amount of storage that I can KEEP some meat without taking up a disproportionate share of capacity. And also just be able to utilize the Costco frozen food section in general, because there's room to GET that 8-box of chicken pot pies, and that 4-pack of frozen cheese pizzas, and that box of veggie patties, etc. I finished my stockup over the weekend, so as to be ready for either social unrest due to the election, or horrible covid lockdown. The covid lockdown is looking pretty damn likely, alas.
posted by notoriety public at 11:11 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Some people in my family are balking at the plan to only eat banana pudding and potato chips for 24 hours, so it looks like I'll be making tacos as well. The nerve!
posted by rikschell at 11:12 AM on November 3 [32 favorites]




Because my (already sky-high) anxiety, depression, and blood pressure will not allow me to survive a night of watching the results come in, I'll be spending tonight watching The Dead Files and sipping a Manhattan. I'll find out in the morning if the world stands or burns. Godspeed, y'all.
posted by Thorzdad at 11:14 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


If Biden governs as an Eisenhower Republican, it will still be better than the alternative, which is essentially Lindbergh Fascism.

At least Lindbergh could fly a plane.
posted by emjaybee at 11:15 AM on November 3 [11 favorites]


I like the idea of repeating this every few hours to keep the enthusiasm up.

Repeating this? What is it?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 11:15 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


So NYT is bringing back the trauma needle from 2016, but only for three states. There are effectively three different voting methods (mail, advance, in-person), each with their own partisan split, and only FL, NC and GA of the contested states will provide sufficiently granular data. This is both by method and also geographically -- if the first 10K votes in Florida are 51% Biden and they're in-person voters from the panhandle, then Biden's got the state sewn up; if the first 10K are 51% Biden but they're mail from central Tampa, he's in trouble.

Anyways, long story short, with three states on the needle, I crunched all of the possible combinations using the 538 forecast explorer -- for instance, if Biden wins NC, his odds of also winning GA go up from 58% to 78%. This chart I made summarizes the combinations, and might be useful for the number-aligned election watcher. The most notable takeaway is that Trump needs to win all three needle states to have a 50% chance of winning the election, barring hijinx.
posted by Superilla at 11:15 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


> I made a double batch of banana pudding. The really strong kind, with pound cake instead of Nilla Wafers, and real whipped cream folded in. A whole dozen eggs. I don't expect to consume much besides said pudding and hard cider today.
Non-sequitur: This is my new head canon for emancipated Harley Quinn.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 11:16 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Repeating this? What is it?

Surely you're familiar with Airplane!
posted by mrgoat at 11:17 AM on November 3 [9 favorites]


The tradition in our family is to have American sandwiches for American election night. And root beer. Everyone politely eats a burger or a BLT, but what we really want is a tuna melt. And we stay up as late as we can to get the results.
This year, no one felt like it. We had looked so much forward to the first woman president. We had read Hillary's bios. We had followed every Senate race.
So because there is a curfew, I have bought two bottles of wine for tonight. I don't expect to drink them, because I'm going to bed early, but just in case I get too anxious before bed. Dinner was amazing, pork cheeks and lentil salad, but I was all alone because the others were just going on with their jobs as usual (I start and end early on Tuesdays).

Good luck, America. Let's wake up tomorrow to a new beginning.
posted by mumimor at 11:17 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Red county TN. I was curious what day-of voting at the county courthouse would look like here. I have not taken my garbage to the dump for 7 months to avoid unnecessary covid risk. Watching it pile up has been a self-learning experience. So it seemed only appropriate to take out the trash today.

(There was apparently nobody voting at all at 2 pm, though there was a police car out front; they usually park in the back.)
posted by joeyh at 11:18 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Between Wednesday and Friday this week, mail ballots that came in Monday and Tuesday will be processed, and ballots received Wenesday through Friday with post marks by 8pm on Election Day (or no postmark) will be set aside until a decision by the US Supreme Court or some other direction.

This may be partly ratfucking, but in practical terms, it's also a means of pre-empting a challenge to ALL mail-in votes by keeping ballots received after today separate, rather than mixing them together and resulting in challenges to the entire mail-in pool.
posted by tclark at 11:18 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Repeating this? What is it?
It's posting the same thing over and over, but that's not important right now.
posted by Zonker at 11:18 AM on November 3 [125 favorites]


Jim in Austin,

That was my first vote. I was still in college. Went to the Santa Barbara airport to see and hear McGovern talk, from a distance. On Election Day, if you brought your ballot receipts to the local McDonalds, you got a free burger. My roommate and I did. Even given how that election went, I’ve been a faithful voter in every election since. Even local elections. This year voted early by dropping off a ballot for the first time. I have always preferred to vote in person on Election Day. But given the circumstances... If I were theistic in any way, I would be praying that in a few days all the endless threads on politics on metafilter will finally fade away, and we could get back to corgis. May we finally be able to raise our glasses of booze, eat some cake, sigh a breath of relief, just deal with the virus, and erase that orange stain we’ve been fighting for five years.
posted by njohnson23 at 11:19 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I grow weary of reflexive pessimism regarding the Democratic Party

Same. Anyone saying a Biden win means nothing is really underestimating how much a repudiation of Trump and Republicans means to a lot of people. I haven't heard a single person say this magically makes everything okay and that there's no work to be done. But even if there's an uphill battle, just a win itself means a shitload.
posted by JenMarie at 11:19 AM on November 3 [47 favorites]


We had a local state election here in Australia on saturday. It's mandatory here which makes the campaigning very different. There isn't a GOTV effort.

The tradition here is to eat a sausage on bread after the vote. The big scandal this year was that there were no sausages at the polling places, because of the virus. It just doesn't feel like an election without them.

I hope today the big problem you have is there aren't any sausages and everything else goes smoothly.
posted by adept256 at 11:19 AM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Repeating this? What is it?

It's posting the same thing over and over, but that's not important right now.



Okay, that was my first legit belly laugh of Election Day! :D
posted by darkstar at 11:21 AM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Good luck from Vancouver, BC. I really hope you folks achieve your wishes and drive Donnie Covid from office along with his enablers.
The other night I literally dreamt I was choking because the anxiety, even though I'm Canadian, is overwhelming at the moment.
I really think a large part of the planet wants the best result possible, so that America can move forward from this four year nightmare.
Over the time he has been president I have drawn a series of perhaps not so flattering portraits of him; I posted the gallery(45 images!) over in the Fucking Fucks thread.
Good luck!
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 11:21 AM on November 3 [7 favorites]


ballots received Wenesday through Friday with post marks by 8pm on Election Day (or no postmark) will be set aside until a decision by the US Supreme Court or some other direction

The word "processed" (ie counted) is missing here. That's the problem. And it directly contradicts what the SC has already said: count the votes that are postmarked on Election Day.
posted by Dashy at 11:22 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Surely you're familiar with Airplane!

Of course I am. And don't call me Shirley.
posted by benzenedream at 11:22 AM on November 3 [54 favorites]


Despite my better instincts, I do plan on watching some TV tonight. We don’t have an antenna, so I will be watching entirely through YouTube. Any recommendations for who/what to watch?
posted by skycrashesdown at 11:22 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Thank god that's over with.
posted by seanmpuckett at 11:23 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Any recommendations for who/what to watch?

Repeat episodes of 8 Out of 10 Cats Does Countdown.

Won't have anything to do with US Elections, and for me that's exactly what I need.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 11:24 AM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Any recommendations for who/what to watch?

Crafsman Steadycraftin for some wholesome peaceful creative fun.
posted by Fleebnork at 11:25 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoB_IdOBAhk was a mighty-fine snooker match this year.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:29 AM on November 3 [5 favorites]


To clarify, I plan to watch election stuff... though I think we probably all appreciate recommendations for non-political soothing stuff to watch.
posted by skycrashesdown at 11:30 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I'm an emigrant that last lived in a state that always votes GOP for President so I never bothered voting in US elections from abroad. But this year things are actually looking close there I decided to register. Only to find out my registration didn't make it in before Oct 5 and was denied. But they happily told me I'm registered for the next federal election.
posted by thecjm at 11:30 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I think folks should temper they’re expectations for progress if the dems take the House and Senate with the Presidency.

My expectation is that the US government would stop giving aid and comfort to Nazis and conducting government business on fucking Twitter.

I mean, I have a whole other list of "really-nice-to-haves" but those are my basic expectations of a Dem win here.
posted by invincible summer at 11:31 AM on November 3 [44 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by cortex at 10:29 AM on November 3 [95 favorites −] [!]

I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 1:17 PM on November 3 [1 favorite +] [!]

I like the idea of repeating this every few hours to keep the enthusiasm up.
posted by neroli at 10:20 AM on November 3 [17 favorites]

To stay in the spirit of the original joke, shouldn't we keep on repeating it even after the Electoral College has declared a winner?
posted by Epixonti at 11:32 AM on November 3 [12 favorites]


One thing I haven't seen discussed is how the massive turnout changes/effects poll numbers. I know that they try and account for likely voters, but it seems there's a lot more voting than is typical.

I'm assuming it's a good thing, but curious what the statisticians say.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:33 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Something nice to see today: Rep. Ayanna Pressley doing the Wobble outside a polling place in Hyde Park, the Boston neighborhood where she lives.
posted by adamg at 11:34 AM on November 3 [29 favorites]


I'm leaning toward C-SPAN or PBS Newshour for livestreaming coverage, but I'm eager to hear where other people will turn. (No, really, I'm eager to hear. I get that people suggesting distracting alternative programming are trying to be lighthearted, but it's a disconfirming response to a sincere question.)
posted by armeowda at 11:34 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


If you're looking for soothing and apolitical, look no further than Escape to the Country. It's sort of like a house hunters show but in the style of Great British Bake Off. No manufactured drama, no misleading editing, etc. It's just lots of great houses all across the UK with genuine, charming hosts, normal homebuyers, and little slices of info and history about the area they're focused on in the episode.

10/10, would recommend again and again. Also, there's something like 600+ episodes, so... no shortage of content.
posted by Godspeed.You!Black.Emperor.Penguin at 11:35 AM on November 3 [11 favorites]


To stay in the spirit of the original joke, shouldn't we keep on repeating it even after the Electoral College has declared a winner?

It's only funny if Biden wins, though.
posted by Justinian at 11:41 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Here's the thing I'm hoping for:

Biden, in inaugural speech: TEAR DOWN THAT WALL.
posted by Dashy at 11:41 AM on November 3 [43 favorites]


Of course, I hope we have something to celebrate tonight. In which case, given that we can't be around other people, I wish I had firecrackers or some kind of noisemaker, instead of just endlessly staring into the computer screen.
posted by NotLost at 11:42 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


It's only funny if Biden wins, though

Much like so many of our last election jokes.
posted by corb at 11:42 AM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Didn’t have to wait to vote but, goddamn, this grocery store right now
posted by showbiz_liz at 11:43 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


When I start to settle in with the news, which will probably be 2 or 3 hours from now, it'll be MSNBC. On a night like tonight, I would like at least a slight liberal bias. Something that will cushion the blow if things go badly, or feel like I'm celebrating with like-minded friends if it goes well. I can't have my usual election day gathering with my lefty friends & family, so this seems like the next best thing. I'll have the usual suspects up on the laptop for when I want / need something insightful. MSNBC will just be the comfort food part of it.

If it's a blowout, I'll switch to Fox News.
posted by Teegeeack AV Club Secretary at 11:45 AM on November 3 [14 favorites]


I'm actually feeling pretty optimistic. I voted for Biden, yes, but I also voted for Ed Markey and Ayanna Pressley.

Markey fended off an attack from the right in the primary, showing that while Democratic voters want a changing of the guard, they're all-in on one of the leaders of the Green New Deal.

Pressley was unopposed in the primary.

Outside of my state, AOC managed to pull half a million viewers in a surprise Twitch stream that was planned within a day. Some Democrats may be jealous of her star power, but it's undeniable. Especially if the youth vote is high this year, they're going to have to concede that the left wing of the party is a legitimate faction, much as how the Tea Party dragged the Republicans right.

Biden talks about bipartisanship, but he's going to sign any landmark legislation that crosses his desk. He wants to turn the country around and stanch the bleeding. If they flip the Senate, it's quite possible that Warren could be our Senate Majority Leader.

For the first time in a long time, I'm feeling like there's real potential for momentum from the left.
posted by explosion at 11:46 AM on November 3 [22 favorites]


I watched Lady Gaga give her endorsement at the Biden rally. Sensibly, she didn't steal the show in her way and kept her speech short. She came onto the stage to Childish Gambino's This Is America. Bless the sign language translator, who was translating the lyrics.

The deaf community can be forgiven for not being familiar with Childish Gambino. The song is rather grim and it must have been bewildering for the poor deaf people watching. What did they just say about guns in the area? Ahhhh!
posted by adept256 at 11:46 AM on November 3 [8 favorites]




Of course, I hope we have something to celebrate tonight. In which case, given that we can't be around other people, I wish I had firecrackers or some kind of noisemaker, instead of just endlessly staring into the computer screen.

May I recommend picking some celebratory tunes and blasting them at maximum volume? Here's what we've got cued up so far (accepting suggestions!). this was originally our Trump Dies Of Covid playlist, not sorry
posted by theodolite at 11:49 AM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Red county TN. I was curious what day-of voting at the county courthouse would look like here. I have not taken my garbage to the dump for 7 months to avoid unnecessary covid risk. Watching it pile up has been a self-learning experience. So it seemed only appropriate to take out the trash today.

Nice. Puts me in mind of Alice's Restaurant.

"...and Trump started to cry, 'cause he came to the realization that it was a typical case of American Blind Justice, and there wasn't nothing he could do about it, and the Supreme Court wasn't going to look at the twenty-seven eight-by-ten color glossy pictures with the circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what each one was to be used as evidence of imaginary voter fraud against us..."
posted by saturday_morning at 11:50 AM on November 3 [26 favorites]


Further suggestions as to healthier alternatives to doomscrolling are welcomed in the Take a break thread.
posted by Too-Ticky at 11:51 AM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Markey fended off an attack from the right in the primary, showing that while Democratic voters want a changing of the guard, they're all-in on one of the leaders of the Green New Deal.

When I first moved to MA I ran into Ed Markey outside a grocery store and got a hug for wearing an Obama sweatshirt. (He asked permission first!) Ever since, my house mate has asked me each time he runs, "Did you vote for your boyfriend?"

Yes, indeed I did.
posted by invincible summer at 11:51 AM on November 3 [29 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by Sokka shot first at 11:52 AM on November 3 [29 favorites]


May I recommend picking some celebratory tunes and blasting them at maximum volume? Here's what we've got cued up so far (accepting suggestions!).

I wish, but I forgot to mention that I live in an apartment.
posted by NotLost at 11:54 AM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Good luck America! I’m rooting for you from north of the border.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 11:55 AM on November 3 [3 favorites]


A federal judge has ordered USPS facilities in several states to check under their own butts and make doubly sure they're not sitting on any mail-in ballots. (I paraphrase.)
posted by armeowda at 11:55 AM on November 3 [32 favorites]


Trump: "We're watching Pennsylvania." Philadelphia: Okay, here’s a livestream.
The livestream, run by the Philadelphia City Commissioners, is an almost flamboyant exercise in election transparency. It shows masked and socially distanced workers rapidly sorting and opening envelopes, then feeding them into machines to be counted, all in plain view of the cameras. It feels pointed, because it probably is. [...]

"Pennsylvanians will not be intimidated," Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf responded on Twitter. "You can watch us count every vote and have a fair election."
*chef's kiss*
posted by tonycpsu at 11:56 AM on November 3 [116 favorites]


I’ve not been able to concentrate on any work this morning, so finally cancelled my meetings this afternoon, set aside the pile of grading, and made another cup of tea. If the drop-off in college emails is any indication, most of my colleagues are doing the same.

I mentioned this in the chat, but I’m getting my election news from this MeFi thread and occasionally popping over to see the dKos map on their front page, showing the “Leading” and “Called” states.

If Florida is called for Biden, THEN I’ll switch on the TV just to witness and celebrate the rout. Otherwise, I’m avoiding even supposedly neutral media tonight.

As for larger turnout, I have been harboring in the back of my mind a little fantasy of hope. In this fantasy, the projections and polling fail to account adequately for the extra turnout and enthusiasm to get rid of Trump. And so, voting will skew toward Biden by an extra few percent over what the polls have been predicting.

Which, in this fantasy, is then enough to bring IA, NC, PA, FL, GA, TX, OH, MT, and AK into Biden’s column, giving him a landslide EC victory with more than 400 votes, lifting up several critical downballot Dems (buh-bye, Perdue and Graham), and giving a stern repudiation of the past four years of bullshit.

Well, that’s my personal fantasy, anyway.
posted by darkstar at 11:56 AM on November 3 [19 favorites]


All of the group texts I'm in except for my immediate family are all "does everyone got gas, does everyone got food, which grocery store hasn't been pillaged yet?" Anxiety over bug out bags and exit plans is not what I expected over 2020.
posted by joycehealy at 11:59 AM on November 3 [10 favorites]


"We are all counting on us"

This phrase is really hitting me right now...makes me tear up a bit...

Democracy really is a pretty wild idea...
posted by albion moonlight at 11:59 AM on November 3 [13 favorites]


Darkstar, stop flirting with me.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 11:59 AM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Things are weird as a coworker of mine who leans right admitted he and his wife wrote in Chris Wallace as their vote. Proceeded to crack open a Cigar City Florida Man IIPA to cope. It will be a long night. Stay safe.
posted by repoman at 12:10 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


> It shows masked and socially distanced workers rapidly sorting and opening envelopes, then feeding them into machines to be counted, all in plain view of the cameras

The more I think about this, the more I'm reminded of the "slow TV" phenomenon, and how the day to day operations of government are supposed to be dull as fuck. In 15+ years working with federal agencies, the best-run teams were the ones that were no fun at all to visit and meet with, and the best leaders were the ones who were creative, but kept the creativity focused on the mission of the agency and not on making a name for themselves or change for change's sake.

Biden/Harris 2020: Build Back Boring.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:12 PM on November 3 [59 favorites]


I'd rather hear right wingers throwing away their votes than grudgingly voting for Trump.
posted by rikschell at 12:13 PM on November 3 [23 favorites]


Just remember, America. If you re-elect Trump you are out of our will.

Love,

Canada
posted by WinnipegDragon at 12:15 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I dropped my ballot off at the city clerk's office last week. The state (MI) or county prosecutor was a Republican running unopposed, so I wrote in George Floyd.
posted by LionIndex at 12:15 PM on November 3 [31 favorites]


'kay, this made me tear up a little: Leslie Odom Jr. on waiting for all the ballots to be counted.
posted by kitten kaboodle at 12:16 PM on November 3 [28 favorites]


I watched Lady Gaga give her endorsement at the Biden rally. Sensibly, she didn't steal the show in her way and kept her speech short. She came onto the stage to Childish Gambino's This Is America. Bless the sign language translator, who was translating the lyrics.

Under the heading of "fixating on trivial things as distraction", I now have a mad crush on that sign language interpreter.
posted by Lexica at 12:18 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


So the Philadelphia City Commissioners have set up a live stream of the ballot counting at the Convention Centre.
posted by nubs at 12:18 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I'm quite proud of my yankee cousins in Boise, who have gone in the last four years from life-long Republicans to donors to the DNC.
posted by No Robots at 12:18 PM on November 3 [17 favorites]


While we're talking about 'Wait For It', the Song Exploder (filmed not podcast) episode on Netflix on the anatomy and evolution of the song is really just outstanding.
posted by ApathyGirl at 12:19 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


This is encouraging.

Houston did early voting right. They had 24-hour voting. They fought and won to keep 127,000 drive-through ballots. Imagine how different the situation would be if a 27-year-old immigrant decided not to run for county judge in 2018 in a race few expected she would win. To sum up, elections have consequences, and sometimes those consequences are better elections. And Lina Hidalgo is a genuine, certified badass.
posted by mcdoublewide at 12:26 PM on November 3 [102 favorites]


Hogwash. Leaving aside the fact that they've already made concessions, including a platform more to the left than Hillary Clinton's in 2016, which at the time was the farthest left in modern times, Biden knows full well that the left is part of his coalition, and that them staying at home in 2022 might at least give him two years of a Republican Senate.

I'll bet against you on this one, if we can come up with objective markers. But we can save that for the post-election thread.
posted by atoxyl at 12:28 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


"You can watch us count every vote and have a fair election."

We need more of this, IMHO. Livestreams of polling places. Live streams of votes being counted. Demystify the process for folks who insist it's all corrupt and untrustworthy.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 12:28 PM on November 3 [18 favorites]


Well, we know how one Massachusetts voter went: Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican who said he couldn't vote for Trump, blanked that part of his ballot.
posted by adamg at 12:33 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


At least Lindbergh could fly a plane.

So could Göring.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 12:36 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


> Well, we know how one Massachusetts voter went: Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican who said he couldn't vote for Trump, blanked that part of his ballot.

more like wanked it, amirite
posted by tonycpsu at 12:36 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Despite my better instincts, I do plan on watching some TV tonight. We don’t have an antenna, so I will be watching entirely through YouTube. Any recommendations for who/what to watch?

I just saw the other day that Manufacturing Consent is on there.

For something lighter, I recently learned of this interestingly goofy farce based on 70s cop shows: Murder Can Hurt You! Contains all of your favorite 70-80s second-string comedic actors.

I'm looking at movies to go see, but a little more intent on finding something I can send my mom to go see, so I don't have to listen to her call Trump a horse's ass at the TV all day.

I have steaks thawed, potatoes, and a salad will be in order...nice and basic. This will be my third attempt at cooking a thin steak anything other than medium rare. I may also make Japanese Sponge Cake.
posted by rhizome at 12:37 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


4 years ago I had organized an executive conference in Banff. I paid extra to get a cable feed into our reception room and put the election results on a huge projection screen during "happy hour". I walked into the room later that night, saw that T had taken an early lead in Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania.. turned around, walked out of the room to the bar, and started drinking. Bless their hearts my Canadian colleagues didn't understand how I knew that it was over..

I did my part this year and every year with my absentee ballot. May we all have come through for ourselves today.
posted by some chick at 12:39 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Massachusetts anecdote:

Like most towns in MA, mine has an old folks home right by City Hall, and the banquet room there is my polling place, and residents staffing the polling desks, checking the voters in and the ballots out in their gloriously non-rhotic fashion.

I didn't feel good hauling my aerosol emitting carcass (albeit masked) to vote in person, so I voted early in City Hall a week ago. And discovered that the same poll workers were walking over City Hall to do the early votes. So it goes. So many people voted early that the lines to early-vote were out the door when I went, and today the regular voting line was non-existent.
posted by ocschwar at 12:39 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


At least Lindbergh could fly a plane.

So could Göring.


Yes, but can you fly this plane, and land it?
posted by swift at 12:40 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Stopped at the grocery store, the liquor store, and Popeyes. I am now ready to binge my way through the next 8 to 12 hours. God this spicy chicken sandwich is good. Tastes like a Senate majority.
posted by showbiz_liz at 12:40 PM on November 3 [33 favorites]


They did note that everyone else they knew had done early/mail-in (?) voting, but they wanted those stickers.

From way upthread, but I'm happy to report that in a lot of places, you still get a sticker even if you are voting by mail! We got ours (from Alameda County in California).
posted by JenMarie at 12:43 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I've been slow-rolling the news, remembering that facts matter and that I'm not alone.

I will recommend, as a brain cleanser, My Octopus Teacher on Netflix. Felt about 10% better after watching that doc.

Hold Fast friends, hold fast.
posted by zerobyproxy at 12:45 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Y’all got a lot of systemic rot to clean out, please don’t get comfortable and “deal with it later”.
posted by blue_beetle at 12:45 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


I wanted to make chocolate chip oatmeal cookies, because I picked up a 4.5 lb bag of chips from Costco last month that I need to start using up and also they are my favorite cookie. Picked out a slightly fancier recipe (touch of cinnamon! touch of molasses!) to try, it also insists that you have your eggs and butter room temp so I am letting them sit out. Then you are supposed to chill the batter for an hour before baking. Exactly the level of complicated enough to distract me that I need, and also it makes a lot of cookies.

(I think I might package up some of the cookies for my mail carrier, maybe freeze the rest).

I have already told my kid that if Biden wins, I am throwing out my No Christmas Stuff till After Thanksgiving rule and going full Holly Jolly around here. The tree goes up, lights go up, Christmas music is allowed, let's go.
posted by emjaybee at 12:49 PM on November 3 [34 favorites]


My partner has insisted that our house be a TV-free zone until after 8 PM Pacific, which is... reasonable, but stressful. I have the feeling of vast movement just outside of my field of view.
posted by ChrisR at 12:50 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


the day to day operations of government are supposed to be dull as fuck.

Changes to legislation and the admission of new States will take a while, but laying the groundwork for a better civil service can be done (assuming, please G-d, Biden wins!) right away. The (hopefully!) new administration can pick appointees that have administrative experience rather than a history of hot Twitter takes. I understand that diplomatic postings and some other posts are seen as plums to be handed out to large donors, but if (again, please G-d!) there is a Democratic landslide the incoming administration will be in a stronger than it can ever hope to be again. Now is the time to put a stop to that nonsense.
posted by Joe in Australia at 12:53 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I have the feeling of vast movement just outside of my field of view.

I know the feeling.

"Altogether elsewhere, vast
Herds of reindeer move across
Miles and miles of golden moss,
Silently and very fast."
posted by Zonker at 12:55 PM on November 3 [15 favorites]


My partner has insisted that our house be a TV-free zone until after 8 PM Pacific, which is... reasonable, but stressful. I have the feeling of vast movement just outside of my field of view.

Real Life Comics for November 3, 2020
This way, we’re like a reverse Schrodinger’s cat, where we’re the cat, the house is the box, and the election is the radioactive isotope that will kill us all! As long as we stay locked away in the house without any news from outside, the world is both okay and completely on fire at the same time!
posted by Lexica at 12:56 PM on November 3 [34 favorites]


You are all pretty awesome for wading through the past 4 years. Let's hope we get some good news.
posted by ersatz at 12:58 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Long time (mostly) lurker from across the pond. Fingers crossed.
posted by lovelyzoo at 1:02 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Also I can HIGHLY recommend the Twitter of Keke who does the most amazing, cute animations, based on ridiculous photos and videos of cats and other critters, or sometimes just because. They will make you happy.
posted by emjaybee at 1:03 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by sainttoad at 1:04 PM on November 3 [29 favorites]


Be very suspicious of the RCP averages since they are heavily invested in the horserace narrative and have some really dubious polling added into them. Trafalgar in particular is basically doing the equivalent of the unskew the polls nonsense which he justifies based upon some bonkers social desirability factor (basically the thesis that not only are likely Trump voters shy they actively indicate a preference for Biden because they assume that is what the pollsters want to hear).

538 has it's issues but their focus on state level polling (which has it's own issues) and their willingness to dump stale polling makes it likely more reliable.

I really hate that we are likely going to have to wait on the Rust Belt (WI,MI,PA) for so long but WI and MI are looking like Biden locks even if you throw out some of the likely outlier polls like the +17 in Wisconsin. I'm more concerned about PA since polling is tighter and it's unclear exactly how good the turnout will be in Philly. Expect a big dump of Trump votes in small PA counties early on while it takes forever for the Philly results to trickle in.

I'd really like to not have to stay up all night so I'm hoping we get early good news in NC, GA and FL since results are fairly quick to be tabulated there. I have zero trust in FL at this point especially when there is always this big glut of red votes from the Panhandle since their polls close earlier. If Biden wins NC it's quite likely that you can go to bed safely though. The path for Trump gets horrible to thread if he loses NC.
posted by vuron at 1:06 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


From way upthread, but I'm happy to report that in a lot of places, you still get a sticker even if you are voting by mail!

was charmed that the checkin booth had both "I voted" AND "Future Voter" stickers.

But although this time I grabbed a sticker (because 2020, omg) I just always felt slightly offended about the stickers, really just never understood those that did not vote. Always felt an I voted sticker was along the lines of an "i got out of bed today" sticker. Mentioned to the poll worker who agreed.
posted by sammyo at 1:06 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Some hopeful info from Texas, via Julian Castro's sr. advisor Sawyer Hackett.
posted by PhineasGage at 1:06 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


My wife, who is an emigrant from Pennsylvania, voted from abroad this year. But we just checked PA's ballot tracking site and there is no record whatsoever:
We are unable to match your information with our records.
But it seems that the site's data is known to be unreliable so hopefully it's just a glitch and her vote will be counted after all.
posted by borsboom at 1:06 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I too am lurking from another land. Good luck. I don't envy your position now; the best possible outcome will still see you left with an awesome amount of wreckage to clean up.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 1:07 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us, altogether.
posted by SillyShepherd at 1:13 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


Good news RE higher-than-expected turnout in Miami-Dade and Broward counties:

We Got this...Biden Campaign wants everyone to Chill.
posted by darkstar at 1:14 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


To all of you outside the contiguous 48 states, thanks for all your good wishes and expressions of hope. It seems like we've been under constant siege for 4 years replete with morphine/heroin shots to help stanch the pain. Your faith in process and our humanity is inspiring. Hopefully tonight we won't let you down.

(P.S. I still cried on my way to vote today for having the opportunity to do so. It was nice to hear that the poll worker who helped me had done the same)
posted by goalyeehah at 1:15 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


We're all counting on us.
posted by mrgoat at 1:15 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


NE Iowa Anecdote:

Do people wear red and blue to their polling site in order to signal party affiliation? Is that a thing?

Because there were a bunch of people who seemed to be doing that this morning. Including a guy in a flagrantly red Nebraska Cornhuskers jacket right here in Iowa - wrong any day of the year - but I couldn't help thinking it was a party thing today.

Anyway, I was fifth in line, and I left to the line snaking out the door and into the church parking lot, which was crammed with gigantic pickup trucks shoehorned into spaces last painted a half-generation ago when motor vehicles were generally of reasonable size.

I wore my VOTED sticker on my name badge to the local high school, where I gave (socially-distanced) presentations to kids registering for concurrent enrollment classes. All the teachers and counselors had their stickers showing, too, which was nice.

My workplace, a community college at the very edge of town, has seen just shy of 300 voters since 7 a.m. Doesn't seem like a lot? But it's a pretty sparsely-populated ward.

Several staff asked me if I think there will be unrest later tonight or tomorrow. I cannot measure how sad that makes me.
posted by Caxton1476 at 1:16 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Historian Heather Cox Richardson has kept up an outstanding, thoughtful running commentary over the past several months, and her latest post is worth reading.

I would quote it, but it's more powerful if you read it in full.
posted by kristi at 1:18 PM on November 3 [25 favorites]


If Biden wins NC it's quite likely that you can go to bed safely though. The path for Trump gets horrible to thread if he loses NC.

I'm really hopeful. I know a teacher down there and the statewide teacher's association has been doing a huge GOTV push, thanks to their newly elected leftist leadership. It could make a huge difference.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:19 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Where exactly would unrest in Iowa happen? Ames or Iowa City due to Universities? Hopefully all the corn and soybean farmers can look past the constant Trump bribes and realize that stability in terms of commodity trading would be preferable to the current mess but I'm unclear how many people depend on agricultural jobs at this point.
posted by vuron at 1:22 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Your rage read for the day. Seriously, don't read it if you're not in a rage mood. You've been warned.

The much more hopeful article it was linked from.
posted by clawsoon at 1:24 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


If Texas becomes important tonight there is one odd bit of nomenclature many Texans are unaware of so I think it's safe to assume many non-Texans don't know.

Confusingly the executive officer of a Texas county has the title "Judge". Officially that's County Judge, which is at least a bit less confusing, but mostly they're just called Judge Surname.

They are elected and have nothing at all to do with the judicial branch of government.

The one you'll most likely hear from/about is Judge Hidalgo of Harris County which is the county where the city of Houston is located. This is also confusing. There is a Houston County, it's far from the city of Houston and has a tiny population. Likewise the city of Austin is located in Travis County, and Austin County is far from the city and has a tiny population. Texas being Texas.

So if you hear that Republicans are suing the Judge of Harris County that means they're trying to cheat the voters in Houston.

I'm a bit doubtful Texas will swing this election, but if it does then you'll hear a lot about county judges.
posted by sotonohito at 1:24 PM on November 3 [29 favorites]


Mrs. Example and I have just had takeout Indian food that took two hours to be delivered. I am fervently hoping that that is the full extent of the fuckery we see this evening. Fingers crossed.

The second course is already here and is a lively mixture of vodka, tonic water, limes, and ice. We are not doing this fully sober.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 1:29 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


We could do with hearing more about Judge Hidalgo. I had never heard of her before this thread, and I am stunned.
posted by notoriety public at 1:29 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I have lived in Texas for 20 years and I just this year found out why the “county Judge” is always the point person on disasters and elections, etc. I always thought it was weird. Best analogy is County Commissioner. The Dallas County Judge, Clay Jenkins, has been a great leader through the pandemic.
posted by double bubble at 1:30 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Confusingly the executive officer of a Texas county has the title "Judge

I think I kinda knew this from old country songs.
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:32 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I am working as an inside poll observer in North Carolina as we speak. My job is to text the outdoor people whenever someone has a problem voting and give them a description of the person. They then try to help that person vote. Highlight was when a guy came here to vote, but his actual polling pace was about 20 minutes away. A woman with the NAACP made a call, and someone instantly showed up and drove him to his polling place.
posted by flarbuse at 1:32 PM on November 3 [64 favorites]


Oh my god. So I live right by a popular taco place in Brooklyn that always has a long line in front of it, and just now I heard someone yell "hey, y'all in line! Y'all vote today?" I heard a few people shout "hell yeah" and then the first voice yelled "THEY VOTED!" and then I heard A WHOLE ASS DRUM LINE start playing and chanting

*bum badum badadadadadadadum* "THEY VOTED! THEY VOTED! THEY VOTED! THEY VOTED!" *bum badum badadadadadadadum* "THEY VOTED! THEY VOTED! THEY VOTED! THEY VOTED!"

Stuck my head out the window, it was a high school drum line that I've seen practicing in the park. They cheered and marched off down the street. I can hear them doing it again now in front of another business down the block. IDK what's going to happen tonight but this is joyous.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:33 PM on November 3 [133 favorites]


The one thing I'll be watching for is the senior vote. Polls are showing that going to Biden. If that's true I think it's highly unlikely he'll lose. From my own family, I know my 94 year old grandmother (who is in no way political and rarely broaches any "hot" subject) seemed scared by Trump. I've never seen her scared until then. But talking to her last week she seemed completely shaken by the idea that Trump might get re-elected. I wonder how reflective that is of other seniors.
posted by downtohisturtles at 1:33 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


To stay in the spirit of the original joke, shouldn't we keep on repeating it even after the Electoral College has declared a winner?

I think we should avoid originalism. Let the joke reflect the evolving situation.
posted by srboisvert at 1:33 PM on November 3 [26 favorites]


Of the important counties were most of the Democratic votes will be coming from in Texas (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Tarrant and Collin) a pretty decent number of them have Democrat leadership. Tarrant I think is the the most populous county still in Republican control. I'm not really counting on Texas to be blue although if it does we are looking at a likely 400+ EV landslide but to a certain degree we are fortunate that mail-in voting is sort of difficult to qualify for so most people have started to use early voting and outside of the contest Drive-up voting sites in Harris which Republicans got blocked from invalidating cast votes I don't think there is a ton of opportunities to invalidate a huge number of voter's ballots so if turnout is massive it's highly unlikely that Republicans could steal the election through widescale ballot invalidations.
posted by vuron at 1:34 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


My older cousin had the nickname Judge. Mostly because he was in court a lot as a teen. After a year in Nam as a medic he used GI Bill to go to school and eventually became a lawyer to just about everyone's surprise. We still call him "Judge" even though he never became one.

I have a weird family. Don't ask about my cousins Knuck and Goon.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:36 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


If on FaceBook, Heather Cox Richardson is live and she is awesome.
posted by Glinn at 1:36 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


My stepdad’s first name was Justice but he went by his middle name. He was referred to as “The Honorable” more than once in the local paper.
posted by double bubble at 1:39 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


really just never understood those that did not vote.

Voting is not simple or easy for many people, and this is a deliberate suppression tactic. It's not a holiday, and many employers actively dissuade and even threaten people who want time off for voting.

How-to-vote is not taught in high school. Nor college. (Maybe there are some rare exceptions, but I don't know anyone who got a sample ballot in a high school class, learned where their local polling stations are, and what's expected on election day.) Even how to register is often not mentioned anywhere that young voters might find out.

Misinformation is everywhere: you have to sign things, you have to not sign things, fill in the selection THIS way, no, THAT way, vote HERE or maybe THERE or BY MAIL or by DROPOFF... do you vote where you get mail, or where you attend school, or where your parents claim you on their taxes? If you've moved in the last three months, can you still vote in your old location if you haven't re-registered? Can you use the vote-by-mail ballot you received just before you moved if you have?

Did I sign my voter registration form with my middle initial or not? Will it matter when I send in my ballot by mail--will someone accuse me of fraud if the signatures aren't close enough? What about people who cannot hold a pen - what do they do for a signature? Do you need to sign to return someone else's ballot to a drop box or the mail, or is that only for in-person returns?

Voting has a lot of roadblocks for anyone who
1) Has recently moved
2) Has two or more locations that could reasonably be considered "my address"
3) Has a disability that makes waiting in line difficult
4) Has a disability that makes filling out forms difficult
5) Is not fluent in the dominant language of the area (even if ballots are issued in their language)
6) Has not done it before, because there are a lot of complicated instructions

...and that's before we get to the active suppression tactics like lying about polling places, shutting them down, moving dropboxes, delaying the mail, and so on. And of course, the "lose your job option" that's entirely illegal in most states, but enforcement of those laws is erratic at best. Nobody's watching out for the voting rights of 19-year-old students in minimum wage jobs.

I want young people to vote. I want poor people to vote. I want disabled people to vote. I understand that it's not always obvious to them how they can do so, and that, of course, all complications are harder for people without money, without free time, without a support network.

Voting is deliberately made complicated and difficult, to keep it away from anyone who might upset the status quo.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 1:42 PM on November 3 [87 favorites]


We need a drum line at every polling station. And sausages like they get in Australia. (I think it’s Australia? Wherever it is - it is brilliant)
posted by double bubble at 1:43 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]






Since I voted early, my relaxing Election Day activity will be sucking up standing water/sewage from a hole in my basement office floor with a wet/dry vacuum (a leaky pipe, long story), then throwing this swampy filth into the backyard to feed the cold critters and plants.

So, pretty much like voting.
posted by swift at 1:44 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


Trump sure knows how to motivate people to do stuff. I've got to go to bed, I'm sure that you're going to have a great time. I still remember vividly what the atmosphere was like when Obama won and I really hope that this election has something similar in store for all of us. Good luck !
posted by nicolin at 1:46 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


"Pennsylvanians will not be intimidated," Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf responded on Twitter. "You can watch us count every vote and have a fair election."

I was always generally pleased with Wolf as governor but this year I've been so happy that we have him to block the idiot republican legislature and to oversee a fair election.
posted by octothorpe at 1:47 PM on November 3 [20 favorites]


Voting is deliberately made complicated and difficult, to keep it away from anyone who might upset the status quo.

This was a really great summary of just how incredibly difficult it is to vote in America. Instead of being angry at people for not voting, why not spend that energy fighting to make it easier for people to vote (and to present them candidates they can actually get excited about)?

It is depressing to me that I have lived through decades of presidential elections and have never once had a candidate who actually gave a shit about me in any form other than soaring campaign rhetoric. It is no surprise to me that in the face of all these barriers *and* the lack of any real material change, people lose hope and disengage.
posted by Ouverture at 1:47 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


And sausages like they get in Australia.

Democracy sausages are a uniquely Australian phenomenon, so I don't think it would be right to copy the idea wholesale. We need something more distinctively American.

Democracy tacos.
posted by Faint of Butt at 1:48 PM on November 3 [40 favorites]


Brit here, speaking from London.

I was at a Toumani Diabate concert in San Francisco on the night Barack Obama's first Presidential victory was declared. The great Malian kora player walked on stage, looked the audience straight in the eye and said, "Welcome back, America - we missed you".

Much love, America - we're all longing to welcome you back again.
posted by Paul Slade at 1:51 PM on November 3 [28 favorites]


So many people voted at my polling place this morning that they had run out of stickers by the time I got there at lunchtime!
posted by The Underpants Monster at 1:51 PM on November 3 [18 favorites]


I distracted myself from the election with a little gardening work. Good to get the hands dirty, helping to make good things grow.

Got four large pots ready for cooler weather plantings of carrots, spinach, lettuce and radishes. Amended the old soil with compost and a little fertilizer. Worked it in good and watered it. Letting it get ready for the cooler temps predicted here in Phoenix this coming weekend, when I’ll sow the seeds.

Highs in the 90s for the next few days, then it drops to highs in the 60s starting on Saturday. Here’s hoping the fever breaks in more than one metaphorical sense.
posted by darkstar at 1:52 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Voted early and I have enough booze to help me get through the next few hours. To steal from Jon Favreau I describe my mood as nauseously optimistic.
posted by cmfletcher at 1:52 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


The increased turnout is making me very, very hopeful for an early Biden win.
posted by Slackermagee at 1:52 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Re voting difficulty, as a percentage of registered voters, the US actually has one of the highest rates of voting among comparable democracies. It's only as a percentage of all potential voters that US voting rates are terrible. So it's more a problem with our difficult registration system than with turnout; those who make it through that first gauntlet are likely to have the knowledge and wherewithal to also cast a vote. If you want to shame, you should shame people for not registering rather than not voting -- but of course both targets of shame are largely misguided: the vast majority of non-voting is because the states have made it deliberately difficult for partisan purposes.
posted by chortly at 1:53 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


How-to-vote is not taught in high school. Nor college. (Maybe there are some rare exceptions, but I don't know anyone who got a sample ballot in a high school class, learned where their local polling stations are, and what's expected on election day.) Even how to register is often not mentioned anywhere that young voters might find out.

Odd! I went to high school in Louisiana--admittedly, ages ago--and 'how-to-vote' was a Big Deal in the (compulsory) Civics course. We did mock ballots for whatever election was happening that semester and much discussion of the mechanics of voting. Plus every year the high school rented actual voting machines for us to use to vote for class officers, cheerleaders, etc. Hadn't realized that Louisiana was that progressive!
posted by tumbling at 1:54 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


And we’re trying to vote out a particularly vile right-wing Trump-sucking Congressperson here in my corner of Mew York, so I’m cautiously optimistic.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 1:55 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Since I voted early, my relaxing Election Day activity will be sucking up standing water/sewage from a hole in my basement office floor with a wet/dry vacuum (a leaky pipe, long story), then throwing this swampy filth into the backyard to feed the cold critters and plants.

Swift, your draining the swamp metaphor is a little too on the nose.
posted by double bubble at 1:55 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


"Odd! I went to high school in Louisiana--admittedly, ages ago--and 'how-to-vote' was a Big Deal in the (compulsory) Civics course. "

At my high school, they had the League of Women Voters come to our senior breakfast (a low-key "donuts and juice and bagels" deal in the gym the week before graduation, sponsored by the PTA), and told everyone who would be 18 before the fall election (i.e., most of us) that they could register to vote. Been registered since that morning!
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 1:56 PM on November 3 [15 favorites]


Warm and clear in Minnesota. Nothing untoward at the polls. Trump train shenanigans seem to be a nothing burger, as Fox would say. But every moment of normalcy seems like a horror film's opening scenes setup. The trauma is strong.
posted by TheAliceMunroSingers at 1:57 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


My naked neighbour who lives across the street just (within the last couple of hours) put a Trump sign on his lawn. I guess it's to welcome his (non-socially distanced) guests (there are at least six cars parked on or near his driveway, and I've been seeing people arriving all day) to an election-watch party. Yes, this is in Canada, and no, to the best of my knowledge, he's not American.
posted by sardonyx at 1:57 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


For some reason, I’m reminded of when I was preparing for my Ph.D defense, and I had one (1) moment of confidence and posted something online like “Maybe I kind of know this stuff after all”, and then immediately my entire brain went “HUBRIS!!” and I spent two solid days having an uncontrollable panic attack because I was certain that I was going to fail.

I just can’t bring myself to believe that hope is actually an option. He always gets away with everything.

We still have to try though.

(Note: I did pass my Ph.D defense. But I’m still pretty sure it was out of pity and because I’d been hanging around so long that it was the easiest way to get rid of me. I’ve done some decent work since, but my grad school career was really not great.)
posted by snowmentality at 1:57 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


here in my corner of Mew York, so I’m cautiously optimistic

You should be - you're in the metropolitan capital of all cats.
posted by eclectist at 1:58 PM on November 3 [23 favorites]


Kid anecdote: this morning I was eating breakfast with my three-year-old and her uncle came downstairs dressed to go on a bike ride. I asked her "what is uncle M. dressed for?", the way you do with three-year-olds, and she said "to vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris!"

So then we stopped by our polling place on the way to daycare, even though we'd already voted, to see the people standing in line and talk about the important work they were doing. I asked if she would be a voter when she grew up, but she said no, she's going to be a doctor. Oh, well.

--

Unrelated, but playing off a comment from upthread that said Y’all got a lot of systemic rot to clean out, please don’t get comfortable and “deal with it later,” I've been thinking about how different this feels from 2008, as well as 2016. 2008 I remember having a sort of mission accomplished vibe for a lot of people -- now we can relax because things are OK. I don't think many people are going to be feeling that way this time, if we win and a transition of power happens. More like we (who survived) barely dodged a bullet, and that gives us just a bit of breathing room to move our country away from disaster.
posted by john hadron collider at 1:59 PM on November 3 [26 favorites]


Odd! I went to high school in Louisiana--admittedly, ages ago--and 'how-to-vote' was a Big Deal in the (compulsory) Civics course.

It was the same in my little cracker-barrel high school in a cornfield in Western New York. Back in those days, it was still the booths with the curtain and the levers, and our school either owned one or had one on permanent loan, for the seniors to practice on every year.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 1:59 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I would ask if your neighbor was named Rob Ford sardonyx but if so you have a very interesting story to share given he passed away some year back.
posted by vuron at 2:00 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


My wife, who is an emigrant from Pennsylvania, voted from abroad this year. But we just checked PA's ballot tracking site and there is no record whatsoever:

We are unable to match your information with our records.


According to my county's voter services office, that's by design. In PA overseas voter registration information and, apparently, ballot information isn't entered in the same database as everyone else. It's obnoxious, stupid, and harmful, but there you have it.
posted by trig at 2:02 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


My naked undead neighbor...
posted by The Underpants Monster at 2:03 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Sardonyx

My naked neighbour ... to welcome his ... guests


Now this is something I need to know more about... and not just to take my mind off the election to the south. Was your neighbour naked when putting up the sign? I mean it's 6 degrees where I am in Toronto so...
posted by cirhosis at 2:03 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Metafilter: My naked, undead neighbour.
posted by Paul Slade at 2:04 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


If you want to streamline voter registration, you could borrow from the Canadian system. There's a box on our tax returns, which we can check to register to vote at the same time.
posted by peppermind at 2:04 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I voted on a machine for the first time and did not like it. It was poorly responsive—I had to ask for help because it rejected my voter access card—and this is no time for everyone to be touching the same screen. Paper ballots are tangible and single use. Still, it wasn’t openly trying to steal my vote, so. It was nice to see a surprising turnout, although this is Mississippi and our best shot is for Espy, which is unlikely but not impossible.

There was a BBQ truck in the parking lot, which cheered me up. Usually this polling place would not really reward a lunch rush.
posted by Countess Elena at 2:06 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


If you want to streamline voter registration, you could borrow from the Canadian system. There's a box on our tax returns, which we can check to register to vote at the same time.

Voting in the US is a lot more localized and not handled at the federal level. It's generally at the state level, and not all states have income taxes to file for, so... Which is why the "motor-voter" bills are a big deal because automotive and picture ID stuff is also handled at the state level, so you can get your ID and register at the same time.
posted by LionIndex at 2:07 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


A little over a hundred years ago, a working widow wanted to vote in Jackson county Florida. Her boss refused to give her any time off work, so she waited on the porch of general store/post office early in the morning for them to open. She cast her vote, and went to work.

And so, she accidentally became the first woman to vote in the state of Florida after the passage of the 19th amendment.

She was my great-grandmother. She died when I was an infant, but I heard that story often when I was growing up. I registered to vote when I was in the air Force at the age of 17, and I voted in every election I could ever since.

I cast my vote in this election a couple weeks ago. And today I'm an outside poll watcher at my precinct in the Florida panhandle. I've walked a few of my neighbors past the small but loud group of Trump supporters out in the parking lot, to the doors of the community center that is our polling place.

I have no hope that we'll turn the Florida panhandle blue, but there are Democrats up here, and we are doing our part for the state totals.

Courage, friends.
posted by Vigilant at 2:08 PM on November 3 [190 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by Pickman's Next Top Model at 2:08 PM on November 3 [28 favorites]


Peppermint: some states have a motor-voter law that tacks on the option to your driver’s license application. That didn’t work for me, though, and I had to make a special trip to the clerk’s office to get it in under the wire. What if I had not been a political junkie who kept checking for my name on the registration website? I would still deserve to vote.
posted by Countess Elena at 2:09 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Which is why the "motor-voter" bills are a big deal because automotive and picture ID stuff is also handled at the state level, so you can get your ID and register at the same time.

It's worth noting that Republicans loudly opposed that idea, too.
posted by Gelatin at 2:09 PM on November 3 [15 favorites]


really just never understood those that did not vote.

My boss is a naturalized US citizen who was born in Derry, Northern Ireland, and he doesn't vote because when he was a young dude to be "engaged in politics" often meant torturing and murdering people on the other side.

He lives in Tampa, but I kinda think he falls on the "as long as my taxes are lower" camp, so maybe it's better for us if he does not vote.
posted by sideshow at 2:12 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I'm so stinking proud of Harris County. Both Judge Hidalgo and County Clerk Chris Hollins (who took over this year, mid-pandemic, when the old clerk decided to step down) have done an amazing job of expanding voting access in the face of what could have been insurmountable challenges, especially given how huge this county is.

It's a shame that the state of Texas restricted vote-by-mail for their citizens as a whole, but on the other hand it's nice that I (and everyone else who voted in person) have their votes locked in without having to worry about USPS delays or signature-matching shenanigans from the Republicans. Thank God even the conservative judiciary thought that throwing out over 120,000 drive-through votes was a step too far.
posted by Salieri at 2:12 PM on November 3 [25 favorites]


Confusingly the executive officer of a Texas county has the title "Judge

I think I kinda knew this from old country songs.


I thought it was more of a Cormac McCarthy thing.
posted by atoxyl at 2:16 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


My naked neighbour ... to welcome his ... guests

Naked Came the Neighbor
posted by atoxyl at 2:17 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


No, he's not Rob Ford, although there is some speculation around here (that I don't necessarily believe) that he is engaged in some of the same sort of less-than-law-abiding career as Ford practised in his younger days.

I'm sure I've raised questions about why I describe him as naked, so I may as well give the full story. When he first moved in, he threw a housewarming party. It was one of those loudish events that had a fratboy feel. At one point, I heard a really loud shout, so I looked out the window and spotted the new neighbour. He wasn't wearing a shirt and he had his pants (and underwear if he was wearing any, although I didn't see any evidence of any at that time or in subsequent viewings) down around his knees. He was standing on his porch exposing himself to his guests through the front bay window. I had the view of his naked buttocks. Since then, his habit of not wearing a shirt continues. Usually he just wanders around (or does yard working, including bending over) in shorts and flip-flips--even when it's too cold to actually be wearing so little in clothing.

I'm sure I've posted about him before. He's also the moron who sits in his driveway revving his very ugly motorcycle, while the radio is blasting. After sitting there for 15 or 20 minutes he takes off, is gone for 15 or 20 minutes, and then returns and sits on his bike on the driveway and revs the engine again.

He also has Conservative or Progressive Conservative signs on his law during every election.
posted by sardonyx at 2:18 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Trump has a 44.6% approval rating and is the first president to never have a positive approval rating in his first term. It seems improbable that the massive turnout we're seeing will be in his favor.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:26 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


Just reflecting on how the early MeFi Megathreads seem like so, so long ago.

Ah, the halcyon days of selecting the perfect Futurama quote as a title. The low bar of expectations on the number of informative links that they should include.

Seeing them shift from that, to become an art form of political research, to finally being purged from MeFi to ease the pervading sense of grar and doom and lighten the burden on the mods.

And now, to be back in an election thread — the thread that hopefully marks the end of the need for megathreads.

It’s been a long road, these past four years. Looking forward to better days ahead.

It’s 5:28pm in most of Florida right now. The last Florida polls (in the Panhandle) will be closing at 8pm EST. We could be hearing something definitive within three hours, now.
posted by darkstar at 2:28 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


After every. single. one. of the positive and optimistic comments here, I hear my dear, departed grandmother's voice saying "From your lips to God's ears."
posted by PhineasGage at 2:28 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


It's a big building with patients and I just wanted to say good luck and don't call me counting on you Shirley like a big Tylenol day to quit smoking. Drinking problem, Leon.
posted by chococat at 2:28 PM on November 3 [30 favorites]


Alas the legend of the naked neighbour is less exciting and more mundanely annoying than hoped for. But yeah I think we've all had that neighbour at one point or another, my sympathy to you and the rest of your neighbourhood.

I guess you don't have to be a parody of an asshole to be a Trump supporter... Actually you probably do, the question is just the flavour of asshole.
posted by cirhosis at 2:29 PM on November 3


And now, to be back in an election thread — the thread that hopefully marks the end of the need for megathreads.

War. War never changes.
posted by jaduncan at 2:30 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


But yeah I think we've all had or been that neighbour at one point or another
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:33 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


War. War never changes.


Yeah, the irony of “the thread to end all megathreads” was ringing in my head as I typed that. But I’m buoyed by the notion that they only became “a thing” here on MeFi beginning in 2016. And with a reversal of that terrible event, and hopefully returning to the sane timeline, the felt need for venting so much angst will dissipate.
posted by darkstar at 2:34 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Hey all, a request for you: please don't make me visit the fucking hellhole that is Twitter in order to understand your comment. Can you please quote that cool tweet that you are sharing?
posted by medusa at 2:34 PM on November 3 [21 favorites]


or a pterodactyl
posted by Mchelly at 2:36 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


World Central Kitchens and Chefs for the Polls are sending out food trucks to most of the polling locations in my city. Some of them have also had DJs (doing it pro bono) and musicians (sponsored by the library, Joy to the Polls, and the MLK Commission).
posted by box at 2:38 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Okay, I got Deep Eddy Lemon, Maker's Mark, Jameson, Tom Barr honey gin, over an oz. of weed, a big pan of homemade pasticcio, a couple dozen kourabiedes (a greek sorta shortbread cookie covered in powdered sugar), two loaves of pumpkin bread, two packs of cigarettes, and a twelve pack of condoms. I AM READY LET'S GO!
posted by vrakatar at 2:40 PM on November 3 [40 favorites]


Watching from Norway and wishing you all good luck. I'll be chilling out in the election chat for at least some of the night.
posted by knapah at 2:40 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I think y’all are being very optimistic about the end of megathreads. If Trump loses, we’ll have extinction bursts from now to January.
posted by rdr at 2:43 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


We could be hearing something definitive within three hours, now.

Tell me when we know something definitive about a state that isn’t Florida. Seriously.
posted by atoxyl at 2:44 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


sardonyx: We could probably help you rig up some sound-activated lawn sprinklers, or something. You know... for science.
posted by klanawa at 2:45 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Some of them have also had DJs (doing it pro bono) and musicians (sponsored by the library, Joy to the Polls, and the MLK Commission).

Last week, a friend of mine got asked by a direct report -- might the direct report take the afternoon of Election Day off? Her family was really into oompah music, to the point where they were all in an oompah band. They wanted to spend a couple hours driving around to poll places, playing goofy oompah covers of pop tunes from the back of the family pickup truck to cheer voters in line.

My friend approved that request AT THE SPEED OF LIGHT, and that is why she is my friend.
posted by joyceanmachine at 2:48 PM on November 3 [72 favorites]


Okay, I got Deep Eddy Lemon...

I have spent many long, enjoyable evenings at Deep Eddy Cabaret...
posted by jim in austin at 2:48 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


(Okay if Biden sweeps Florida it’s probably over so you can tell me that but that’s not my Florida Feeling).
posted by atoxyl at 2:49 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Personally, I like the "oom", but the "pah", not so much.
posted by thelonius at 2:50 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Thelonius, every time I see your username, of course it evokes Thelonius Monk.

Which then leads me to imagine what might the Thelonius Monastery look like...

posted by darkstar at 2:53 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I'm knee-deep in ABBA after watching one of the documentaries Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey linked upthread. It's working.
posted by villanelles at dawn at 2:53 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


So it's more a problem with our difficult registration system than with turnout; those who make it through that first gauntlet are likely to have the knowledge and wherewithal to also cast a vote. If you want to shame, you should shame people for not registering rather than not voting -- but of course both targets of shame are largely misguided: the vast majority of non-voting is because the states have made it deliberately difficult for partisan purposes.

I have a college-attending relative who I tried to help get her absentee ballot. She's Gen Z and so of course if it's not online it's an uphill battle so I found an online tool to help her request hers.

Somehow -- either through her error or through the way the state conducts its business -- it still went to her MAGA household a state away from where she lives, so that's one potential Biden vote that won't happen just because there are a small list of things that you have to conscientiously pay attention to.

I have a lot of things to say here about the psychological weaknesses of conservative-leaning voters, but I am going to call out one of progressive-leaners: we tend to be bad at things that require conscientious attention and jumping through hoops. Executive function issues are more likely among us. "Make a plan" is a mantra because a lot of us honestly suck at it. And you know what? Conservatives know this and they know their voters tend to be better at it. You can chalk it up to privilege or you can follow the threads that point to deep-rooted psychology, but in the end we are going to have to get better at this via positive social reinforcement if we are going to win more frequently.
posted by wildblueyonder at 2:54 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


In case you were thinking of using google to check any election facts, try "how many leaves are on a mature maple tree" and seeing their highlighted answer in its factual glory.

(To wit: That's how many leaves per hour the maple nearest my house is dumping on my porch.)
posted by maxwelton at 2:55 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


but in the end we are going to have to get better at this via positive social reinforcement if we are going to win more frequently

Or we can just make it damn simple to vote, without the hoops.
posted by maxwelton at 2:58 PM on November 3 [19 favorites]


In case you were thinking of using google to check any election facts, try "how many leaves are on a mature maple tree" and seeing their highlighted answer in its factual glory.

(To wit: That's how many leaves per hour the maple nearest my house is dumping on my porch.)

That is not a lot of leaves. Going the other way, "how many ml in a glass of white wine" gives a very generous measure.
posted by knapah at 2:59 PM on November 3


We're closing in on the first polls closing, at 6PM EST. Gird your loins, and buckle the fuck up everyone.

I just want to say: Good luck, we're all counting on us.
posted by mrgoat at 3:00 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


After reading to this point, I want to watch Airplane! again.
posted by May Kasahara at 3:03 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Derek Thompson at The Atlantic: “Forget the Exit Polls, Watch Florida, Ignore Pennsylvania: An hour-by-hour guide to remaining patient, prepared, and epistemically humble throughout tonight (and tomorrow morning)”
7 p.m. ET
Where polls close: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia
What was happening around this time four years ago:
What I’ll be focusing on: Georgia. In 2016…
What else to watch for:
What to ignore:
Etcetera throughout the evening.
posted by Going To Maine at 3:04 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I'm convinced that if the United States had a centralized, professionally administered federal election system, with all the modern conveniences like automatic registration and a national holiday to vote, there would be like 45 blue states instead of 20 or so. Which is why the GOP will never let it happen..
posted by theodolite at 3:04 PM on November 3 [33 favorites]


So are we putting in our final EV total predictions or is that too much whistling past the graveyard?
posted by vuron at 3:05 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Literally sweating right now as polls close. Glass of wine in hand, thankfully.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 3:05 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


The USPS is just turning down the court order. I... didn't realize one could do that? Good to know!
posted by hijinx at 3:08 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


Thelonius, every time I see your username, of course it evokes Thelonius Monk.

I am named after the Stevie Wonder song that Jeff Beck covered: spelled wrong. Or after a cat, I wanted to name a cat this. But I already had cats.

Anyway, on-topic: please universe do the thing
posted by thelonius at 3:10 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


WTF, USPS? Are any individual executives there vulnerable to being held in contempt of court?
posted by PhineasGage at 3:11 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


In Republican administrations, the answer evidently is yes.
posted by darkstar at 3:13 PM on November 3


Hey all, a request for you: please don't make me visit the fucking hellhole that is Twitter in order to understand your comment. Can you please quote that cool tweet that you are sharing?
posted by medusa at 2:34 PM on November 3


This, please. Having this soon-to-be-enormous thread open and trying to load Twitter's megabyte of Javascript is a lot to ask of even a fairly modern phone. If we must link to a specific thread, can we at least use a Nitter link, so everyone can load it?
posted by FeatherWatt at 3:14 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Speaking of twitter, this could be a good list to follow of various pollsters and pundits on the ground:
https://twitter.com/i/lists/780488164297338880
posted by Ahmad Khani at 3:15 PM on November 3


(Speaking of making things easier on bandwidth, etc., I’ve “removed from activity” all of my other MeFi discussion threads, so that I’m not reloading all of those threads every time I reload this one when I hit “Recent Activity”.)
posted by darkstar at 3:17 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I have been binge-watching The Man in the High Castle to reset the context for me. Dystopian, violent, fascist but with a Resistance! Alternative reality but with some kind of travel.

A nice distraction.
posted by lathrop at 3:17 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Can I turn down a court order should one come my way?
posted by double bubble at 3:26 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I have decided to unquit drinking for tonight, though only gently since I have to take the kids to school in the morning - but otherwise I don’t think I will ever fall asleep.

You guys, I just want to stop wearing this god damn yellow tie.
posted by nickmark at 3:26 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Are we there, yet? Are we there, yet? Are we there, yet?
posted by It's Raining Florence Henderson at 3:29 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Can I turn down a court order should one come my way?

Sure. To the exact degree that you can enforce your decision, same as the court.
posted by mrgoat at 3:30 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I have been lurking here on MF for years. I joined tonight, because I just wanted to say that y'all have helped keep me distracted and sane in 2020.

Good luck, we're all counting on us.
posted by gwydapllew at 3:30 PM on November 3 [117 favorites]


Anyone know of a link where I can watch the live Colbert thing in Canada?
posted by chococat at 3:31 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


This thread is so tense. It's like being over Macho Grande.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 3:32 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande
posted by Lord_Pall at 3:34 PM on November 3 [21 favorites]


Welcome aboard, gwydapllew!
posted by bcd at 3:34 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


I continue to work as a poll observer for another hour. I have been talking a bit with my Republican counterpart. He is a white, forty-something veteran. He feels very strongly that everyone should vote. He loves early voting. He thinks there should be a national holiday to vote. He thinks voting should be mandated. He also is such an enthusiastic Republican that he is here volunteering for the party.

We know that Republican legislators won’t vote to expand voting because they know it will hurt their party. But what if Republican voters don’t know that it will hurt their party? I am sure this guy is not an anomaly. Maybe many/most veterans share his view. Maybe Democrats could try to put pressure on Republican lawmakers to pass voting legislation by pressuring them through their own super-patriotic supporters?
posted by flarbuse at 3:35 PM on November 3 [20 favorites]


So I hear there's some kind of election happening?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 3:39 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Has Trump suffered a humiliating loss, ruining the family name for generations, exposing his relatives and friends to criminal charges, prison time, and fines, eliminating his ability to show his face in public even less than Nixon did, ruining the Republican Party and making the case for removing many powers from the president yet?
posted by rhizome at 3:39 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


It’s going to be 1 AM soon and I can’t keep my eyes open. Good luck, and thanks for all the fish.
posted by Bella Donna at 3:39 PM on November 3 [23 favorites]


I'm convinced that if the United States had a centralized, professionally administered federal election system, with all the modern conveniences like automatic registration and a national holiday to vote, there would be like 45 blue states instead of 20 or so. Which is why the GOP will never let it happen..

When we win the Senate and White House tonight, we’ll be able to pass comprehensive federal voting rights legislation, and tie federal dollars to implementation of said legislation in the states.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:40 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Has Trump suffered a humiliating loss, ruining the family name for generations, exposing his relatives and friends to criminal charges, prison time, and fines, eliminating his ability to show his face in public even less than Nixon did, ruining the Republican Party and making the case for removing many powers from the president yet?

We’re working on it right now. Think of it as edging.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:41 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


Are we there, yet? Are we there, yet? Are we there, yet?

Just a little further. Just a little further. Just a little further.
posted by Melismata at 3:41 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


WELL I NEVER
posted by rhizome at 3:43 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I just want to say: Good luck, we're all counting on us.

Looks like I picked the wrong night to stop sniffing glue!
posted by leotrotsky at 3:43 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


I have been talking a bit with my Republican counterpart.

Hm. Is that how that works in every state? Do you have to promise to not talk about issues and just keep it professional? That must be weird.
posted by vrakatar at 3:46 PM on November 3


This is a weird PornHub search result.
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 3:47 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


It’s going to be 1 AM soon and I can’t keep my eyes open.

It’s going to be 1 AM soon and I can’t stop staring at these damned screens, drinking coffee, and doing lots of stress eating.
posted by pracowity at 3:48 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


@existentialfish: lol these fox news voter polls
posted by tonycpsu at 3:48 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


It’s going to be 1 AM soon and I can’t stop staring at these damned screens, drinking coffee, and doing lots of stress eating.

Heavy same.
posted by knapah at 3:49 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


tonycpsu, good job quoting the tweet! You get a cookie.
posted by medusa at 3:50 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Stamped on the sides of all of these scanned cats:

ULTIMA FILUM MAGNIFILUM
posted by sixswitch at 3:50 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


You're lucky if you get to sleep through the next 8 hours.
posted by rhizome at 3:51 PM on November 3


It's going to be 1am in a long-ass time and I'm already drinking wine.
posted by JenMarie at 3:51 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Still awake, here in England. This is quite like the interval in the Eurovision Song Contest, where we await the first results to be slowly, country by country, revealed.

(But with less glitter)
posted by Wordshore at 3:53 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


If everything goes they way I've planned it, Biden should have 271 votes a little over an hour from now.
posted by rhizome at 3:55 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Just cracked my first ale. Cheers!
posted by emjaybee at 3:55 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


chococat: You can apparently watch the Stephen Colbert show on Crave
posted by The Outsider at 3:56 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]




If everything goes they way I've planned it, Biden should have 271 votes a little over an hour from now.

we need to know this plan
posted by medusa at 3:56 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


... and you look marvelous!
posted by rouftop at 3:58 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


we need to know this plan

538-0
posted by rhizome at 3:58 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


This is a weird PornHub search result.

Huge Multiracial Electorate Nails Bigot.
posted by leotrotsky at 3:59 PM on November 3 [23 favorites]


By the way, you can take a Twitter link, replace twitter.com or mobile.twitter.com with nitter.net then my low-end phone and I will thank you.
posted by Monochrome at 3:59 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


“I just want my Instagram to be about me again, and how good I look”

Is there a word for feeling glad about something but also intense second hand pain/embarrassment while also recognising far too much of yourself in something.

I might have to go with "oof".
posted by fight or flight at 4:00 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Had to eat 6 fish tacos followed by a big bowl of banana pudding. Now planning to play a 3 hour game of Catan. After that I might check results before bed.
posted by rikschell at 4:01 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Here we go.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 4:01 PM on November 3


538-0

Surely you can't be s—
posted by saturday_morning at 4:01 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I'm in a very red area. On a heavily trafficked street corner at approximately 5pm tonight a horde of trumpers were standing about making noise and waving drump flags and generally making a nuisance of themselves as if they'd already won the race.

I despair for the country. I hope there's reason for hope....
posted by mightshould at 4:01 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


here in my corner of Mew York, so I’m cautiously optimistic

You should be - you're in the metropolitan capital of all cats.


Here’s hoping Pawsylvania doesn’t cough up a hairball.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:04 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Which then leads me to imagine what might the Thelonius Monastery look like...

It's probably all right.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 4:04 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Okay, for the sake of my sanity where could I find the most accurate result data? I'm looking at Politico and they're already calling states based on only about 15% of the vote count.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:11 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


On a website I shall not name that kinda has the word free as part of its name they are saying FOX has called vermont and VA for Biden. CNN has not called those states. hmmmmm.
posted by vrakatar at 4:12 PM on November 3


Here's a good site with results throughout the night, the Election Night Integrity Project.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:13 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]



This is a weird PornHub search result.

Huge Multiracial Electorate Nails Bigot.



Okay, that’s my second legit belly laugh of Election Day!
posted by darkstar at 4:16 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


So the Guardian is calling Kentucky to Trump with 55.6% to Biden with 42.8% with 17% of votes counted. If that percentage holds, Biden has done about 10% better than Clinton did in 2016.
posted by piyushnz at 4:18 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Okay, for the sake of my sanity where could I find the most accurate result data? I'm looking at Politico and they're already calling states based on only about 15% of the vote count.

I've been following this map linked from 538. No states called yet.
posted by cozenedindigo at 4:18 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Statehood is leading in Puerto Rico by 55 to 45%. Telemundo doesn't say what percent of vote has been counted.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:21 PM on November 3 [23 favorites]


Had a hit from my vape, ate some mofongo con pernil and flan, and cracked open (and nearly finished) a rose cider. I'm ready.
posted by SansPoint at 4:24 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I am gloriously snozzled. And I have an air fryer.

It may be the end of America, but I have tots and rum. S'good.
posted by 80 Cats in a Dog Suit at 4:24 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Wow, things really are taking longer this year - CNN haven't called a winner yet.
posted by piyushnz at 4:26 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I stopped drinking about four months ago, and am looking forward to a long night of contemplating the wisdom of that decision.
posted by EatTheWeak at 4:26 PM on November 3 [40 favorites]


You all had my spirits high flying through the afternoon (I'm on the West Coast), and now the early results have me back to worrying about my arteries. I think I'm not supposed to feel them.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 4:27 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Who has the least bad election results map?
posted by swift at 4:27 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


So much for my earlier theory of relaxing after a strong GA showing.

Ben Brasch, an AJC reporter, tweets:
Officials: We won't have the vote count we expected tonight in Fulton County, home to Atlanta and a tenth of all Georgians. Absentee-by-mail processing at State Farm Arena was delayed 4 hours because a water pipe burst in a room. Officials say no ballots were damaged.
posted by bcd at 4:27 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


There's no map yet. Patience, no place has enough data being reported out to make conclusions.
posted by mrgoat at 4:29 PM on November 3


Florida not looking good.
posted by Chickenring at 4:29 PM on November 3


I've got three maps up and FL is looking good to me.GA even better.
posted by Windopaene at 4:30 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]




According to the Guardian, Biden is on 50.2 to 49 in Florida, with 58% counted.
posted by acb at 4:31 PM on November 3


You can do it, EatTheWeak! I’m white knuckling this stone cold sober, not even a vitamin gummy for comfort. Solidarity!
posted by mochapickle at 4:31 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


And here I thought that Florida counties weren't supposed to report any results (other than total ballots cast) before the polls closed in the panhandle.
posted by wierdo at 4:31 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Here to express solidarity with my sober people.
posted by Don.Kinsayder at 4:32 PM on November 3 [19 favorites]


Correction: 50.9 to 47.3 with 63%
posted by acb at 4:32 PM on November 3


I voted on the first day of early voting weeks ago, but when I walked by my polling location (a church directly behind my apartment) today there was no line and they had gallons of apple cider. I am heartened to see so many companies giving employees off today as a holiday to vote. Not enough, but it’s a start.
posted by Bunglegirl at 4:32 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Can I get some context on those Florida votes? Are the outstanding places more R or D?
posted by medusa at 4:33 PM on November 3


I am having blinding flashbacks to 2016 and that Florida call. This is terrifying.
posted by freya_lamb at 4:34 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Nate Cohn via NYT: "If there's any consolation for Democrats, this Miami-Dade result, way worse for Biden than expected, is not something we expect to see repeated elsewhere in the country."
posted by reductiondesign at 4:34 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


medusa its hard to say because it appears the info is inconclusive about the splits between same day and early vote (how to interpret what is left to be counted depends on assumptions about what were seeing already, which doesnt seem clear atm).
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 4:35 PM on November 3


Faxed in my vote and confirmed receipt a while ago. Feels appropriate that this Wednesday morning in Tokyo I'm at immigration. Waited in six different lines so far and now just waiting for my number to be called so I can pick up my passport with a permanent residency stamp in it! Next stop, naturalization. With a lot of work and some luck this may be the last presidential election I ever vote in. Hope this time it goes well and I can go out on a high note!
posted by Gotanda at 4:37 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Florida not looking super great because of Miami Dade but it’s still early.
posted by Chickenring at 4:38 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


The issue with Florida is that Red areas probably have more Trump votes outstanding than Blue areas have uncounted Biden votes remaining. It appears that Miami-Dade really didn't come through for Biden in the late push.
posted by vuron at 4:38 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


aww it is so nice to see everyone supporting each other
posted by sixswitch at 4:39 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


this may be the last presidential election I ever vote in.

WHAT! and miss out on all this fun?!!?! C'mon man!
posted by vrakatar at 4:39 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


JFC, Miami-Dade! WTF!?

*goes to breathe into a bag*

I...may need to break out the Bailey’s and coffee...
posted by darkstar at 4:40 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Virginia called for Biden -- much earlier than it went for Clinton in 16, so that's a positive development.
posted by Zonker at 4:41 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Eugh, enough about Miami-Dade; any word on how Broward's doing?
posted by May Kasahara at 4:41 PM on November 3


Just wait and see with Miami Dade. Lots of votes left to count.
posted by interogative mood at 4:41 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Also sounds like Miami-Dade has more early/mail votes outstanding that haven't reported yet, so don't despair about Florida (yet)
posted by Zonker at 4:42 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]




On Boward, from 538: We’ve now gotten many votes from Broward County, one of the anchors of the Democratic Party in Florida. Biden leads by 33 points with 83 percent of the expected vote in, but that’s not the greatest number for him — Clinton won it by 35 points in 2016.
posted by craven_morhead at 4:42 PM on November 3


Zonker are you looking at the guardian site? I'm confused because they have Virginia called for Biden even though Trump is leading. Can anyone explain that to me?
posted by piyushnz at 4:42 PM on November 3


FiveThirtyEight: "We’ve now gotten many votes from Broward County, one of the anchors of the Democratic Party in Florida. Biden leads by 33 points with 83 percent of the expected vote in, but that’s not the greatest number for him — Clinton won it by 35 points in 2016."
posted by reductiondesign at 4:42 PM on November 3


It's going to be 1am in a long-ass time and I'm already drinking wine.

We will sell no wine before its time.
.
.
.
It’s time!
posted by The Underpants Monster at 4:43 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


piyushnz: "Zonker are you looking at the guardian site? I'm confused because they have Virginia called for Biden even though Trump is leading. Can anyone explain that to me?"

It's the Grauniad, what more do you want?
posted by chavenet at 4:43 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I seem to have hit my “Favorites limit” for the day.

Guess I’ll be white-knuckling this thread for the rest of the evening. You may all assume you have my favorites on any ensuing comments.
posted by darkstar at 4:45 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]




The 5-6pm hour was the slowest of the day at my precinct. That would have been one of our busiest ordinarily...shows how many people are not working or are not working 9-5 right now.

All day I've been busy and excited, now that it's slowing the dread is creeping in. Now I really just want this to be over.
posted by Gray Duck at 4:47 PM on November 3


And Ohio is off to a good start.
posted by Windopaene at 4:47 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


@_cingraham:
"USPS reported about 300,000 untraceable ballots today -- those that have entered processing facilities but not left them. Not clear, at this point, how many of these will turn up in today's facility sweeps."

"Since people are asking, about 4,000 are in south Florida"
posted by fight or flight at 4:48 PM on November 3


Weird that Virginia has been called when the Commonwealth's page has Trump leading.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 4:48 PM on November 3


"White-knuckling" it is sure an accurate way to describe this.
posted by Kevin Street at 4:49 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Not enough people turned up outside NoVa for it to swing to Trump.
posted by Slackermagee at 4:50 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Really wishing the CNN guy would stop talking about Miami-Dade and how Biden is underperforming
posted by nubs at 4:51 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Here's an aggregator of what networks have called what states for whom. As a non-NYT subscriber, it didn't load for me in my regular window, but it did in an incognito window. (I do have a java blocker, but it's turned off on my main windows and I can't tell whether it's applying to that incognito window.)

Those Times needles are bad, bad news. I only hope the comment was right about FL maybe not being representative. What's some of the best good news so far?
posted by daisyace at 4:51 PM on November 3


Wow. Ohio looking very good for Biden so far.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 4:52 PM on November 3


I want to know absolutely everything that's happened up till now.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:52 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I live in VA - it's not even going to be close here. Trump wrote off winning VA months ago.
posted by COD at 4:52 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


🎵doo doo doo
doomscrollin’
reading the lies
doomscrolling
eating some fries🎵
posted by sixswitch at 4:52 PM on November 3 [17 favorites]


It may not even be decided tonight, but it's so hard to turn away.
posted by Kevin Street at 4:54 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I want to know absolutely everything that's happened up till now.

Well, in 2016 something happened to the Large Hadron Collider, throwing us into a divergent universe that is, in many ways, very similar to our own -- and in some ways, very different indeed..
posted by fight or flight at 4:54 PM on November 3 [31 favorites]


Capt. Renault: Well, let's see. First the earth cooled. And then the dinosaurs came, but they got too big and fat, so they all died and they turned into oil. And then the Arabs came and they bought Mercedes Benzes. And Prince Charles started wearing all of Lady Di's clothes. I couldn't believe it.
posted by SansPoint at 4:55 PM on November 3 [29 favorites]


I want to know absolutely everything that's happened up till now.

Well, first the earth cooled, and then the dinosaurs came, but they got too big and fat...
posted by wabbittwax at 4:55 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]




Capt. Renault: turns out the guy lurking in the background in Holidate is not Ryan Gosling.
posted by piyushnz at 4:56 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I want to know absolutely everything that's happened up till now.

I had leftover Chinese takeout for lunch.
posted by nickmark at 5:00 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I’m watching PBS and the word Florida has not even been uttered.

Am now under electric blanket in bed. In retrospect, opening wine at 5:30 pm might have been a mistake.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 5:01 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Who has good graphical reporting of results vs. expected results as they roll in?
posted by daisyace at 5:01 PM on November 3


BREAKING NEWS, EVERYBODY


It's too close to call
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:01 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Florida and Georgia keep flip-flopping everytime I switch maps...
posted by Windopaene at 5:04 PM on November 3


Ray Walston, Luck Dragon: "It's too close to call"

Beetlebaum!
posted by chavenet at 5:04 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]




too close to call

That phrase haunts my dreams lol
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:06 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


According to the people at the Washington Post (who are way calmer than me right now), Biden doesn't absolutely need Florida (it would be great, though), but Trump absolutely needs Florida to win.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:07 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I live in VA - it's not even going to be close here. Trump wrote off winning VA months ago.

Me too. That's why my focus this year was to get Mom registered to vote in PA. Which she did after some convincing. When she got her ballot in the mail, she filled it out that night and mailed it the next morning, something she just doesn't do when it comes to things with due dates weeks in advance.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 5:07 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


My Biden/Harris and Hickenlooper yard signs were stolen out of my yard this morning. I think they might have just been relocated, but whatever. I called hundreds of voters, texted thousands, and might have talked my dental hygienist into voting for the first time during an appointment a few weeks ago. I have no idea how I feel, honestly.
posted by danielleh at 5:07 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Idle reflections from the past 20 years -

2000: I wasn't old enough to vote, but the day after the election when basically all classes at my high school were suspended so we could discuss the electoral college (and dunk on all of the Nader supporters) I began to understand how granular voting results could be.

2004: first time I voted in a national election (also, I was the first person in my family to ever vote in a US election), I mostly remember watching CNN for hours in the dorm common room eating Doritos, drinking boxed wine, and wondering how many uppers Wolf Blitzer had taken. most of campus skipped class the next day due to depression, and prolly hangovers.

2008: I voted on an old-timey voting machine with a lever which was very satisfying. also Obama won and I had never felt so patriotic in my life.

2012: this one stressed me out for some reason; I went home and was in bed with the lights out and the blanket over my head by 8pm, was woken up by a text from a friend at around 11:30 saying "we're good" which was most excellent, went back to sleep.

2016: went to my local pub at 4pm armed with tons of cash to drink heavily and tip bartenders in honor of Hillary smashing the glass ceiling; that obviously went horribly wrong, had a really good conversation with someone I didn't know very well who has since become a dear friend about how the only way out is through, was still devastated, stayed there till nearly 4am watching Trump give his victory speech; woke up the next morning feeling even more patriotic and determined to turn this country around. also very hungover.

2020: home. cautiously optimistic. Wolf Blitzer still seems like he's on a bunch of uppers. fingers crossed. 🤞🤞🤞
posted by nayantara at 5:07 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


Florida is aggravating. South America, take it away!
posted by pracowity at 5:08 PM on November 3


This is me right now (c'mooon Florida), and probably the rest of the night, too.
posted by May Kasahara at 5:08 PM on November 3


Don't forget that it's in every media outlet's self-interest to keep the horse race close and running for as long as possible.
posted by chavenet at 5:09 PM on November 3 [27 favorites]


I want to know absolutely everything that's happened up till now.
Anybody in the mood for a 20 minute mental break?
History of the entire world, I guess.
posted by bartleby at 5:10 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Are early Democrat leads the norm in Texas? Because Biden has an 8% one at 16% counted.
posted by acb at 5:10 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Looking at some of the breakdowns in terms of voting percentages among demographic groups in Florida I think there are some good signs and of course the potential that the underperformance of Biden in regards to Hispanic voters might me carried to other states. However I would be very reluctant to read too much into Florida especially the Hispanic voting percentages since it's A)Florida and B)the composition of Hispanic voting population in Florida is significant different than that in the rest of the US particularly the Southwest.

I am concerned that the Biden = Socialist branding might've resonated with some Hispanic voters but Cuban Americans and Venezuelan Americans are heavily concentrated in a handful of areas and they have a somewhat different socioeconomic breakdown than most Hispanic population.
posted by vuron at 5:10 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


McConnell wins re-election in Kentucky.
posted by TWinbrook8 at 5:11 PM on November 3


NYT on FL: "Biden is getting the margins statewide that his campaign hoped for in Florida. It’s that very bad Miami-Dade County return that has swung the state toward Trump."
posted by reductiondesign at 5:11 PM on November 3


Like, suspiciously bad Miami-Dade return?
posted by maxwelton at 5:12 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


McConnell wins re-election in Kentucky.

I know it was a long shot, but fuck. In many ways, he's worse than Trump.
posted by bcd at 5:13 PM on November 3 [38 favorites]


McConnell wins re-election in Kentucky.

May his hands remain blue.
posted by valkane at 5:13 PM on November 3 [18 favorites]


The Kentucky results are very, very disappointing.
posted by Saxon Kane at 5:13 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


concerned that the Biden = Socialist branding might've resonated with some Hispanic voters but Cuban Americans

That's what I thought when the Dade numbers came in. Likely not as predominant across the rest of the country.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:13 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


In more positive news, Jaime Harrison is leading Lindsay Graham 50.4% to 48.6%
posted by Saxon Kane at 5:14 PM on November 3 [36 favorites]


What is going on in North Carolina? After 45 minutes, a whopping 600 votes counted (and those were in a while ago). FiveThirtyEight's write-up of when to expect results said:

Election officials estimate that up to 80 percent of the total vote could be announced right after polls close at 7:30 p.m., including in-person early votes and all mail ballots received by Nov. 2.
posted by Clandestine Outlawry at 5:15 PM on November 3


Any chance the Miami-Dade numbers will change significantly as absentee ballots are counted? Are we only seeing the results of in-person votes right now?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 5:15 PM on November 3


Texas is completely uncharted territory ACB. The level of turnout in Texas is extremely high and until we have some better indicators of where votes are coming from it's hard to tell.

Basically though you'll want to see Democrats run up big numbers in Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso and to a lesser degree in Tarrant and Collin. The other area were Biden will likely do well is in the Rio Grande Valley but reading the RGV numbers will be hard to predict since outside of areas like McAllen and Laredo there is pretty low population densities.
posted by vuron at 5:15 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


North Carolina results have been delayed because some precincts had to stay open late.
posted by skewed at 5:17 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


With about 45% of the expected votes in, Bloomberg has Biden up by 12(!!) in Ohio.
posted by Zonker at 5:17 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Yeah Biden taking Ohio would be a nice coup. Oh wait, probably poor choice of words.
posted by exogenous at 5:18 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I want to know absolutely everything that's happened up till now

I have a wheel of cheese.
posted by Wordshore at 5:20 PM on November 3 [41 favorites]


I can’t be arsed linking because phone but Cody Johnson released a 2 hour yt vid yesterday which doesn’t mention the election at all but instead builds a thesis that millennials are being conditioned to accept dystopias by way of pop culture, starting with The Land Before Time, the Dinosaurs tv series, and, no shit, Super Mario Bros. A good way to kill time if you’d like to check out for the evening.
posted by um at 5:20 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I heard earlier that the Rio Grande Valley numbers in Texas are underperforming for Biden. But not sure of the impact that will have.

(if y'all are too stressed we are discussing food and booze and anxiety over in Chat.)
posted by emjaybee at 5:20 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


If there's one thing that US election night Mefi threads have taught me over the past two decades, it's not to place any faith in Miami-Dade late returns.
posted by anagrama at 5:20 PM on November 3 [15 favorites]


I feel like early dem leads in TX are common. If I recall correctly it was that way for Hillary And Beto. Dallas and Austin tend to get called earlier than smaller cities.
posted by double bubble at 5:21 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Ohio reports pre-election-day votes first, so current results are expected to be skewed D
posted by joeyh at 5:21 PM on November 3


C’mon adopted homeland! I’ve been in NC for the better part of 25 years but I’m was born and partially raised in the Commonwealth of Virginia by the grace of your chosen deity.

I feel good about Cooper (gov), Stein (ag), and Cunningham (USsen) but geeze NC is so weird with split tickets.
posted by sara is disenchanted at 5:21 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


JFC, Miami-Dade! WTF!?

Spanish language media has been busy calling Biden a Communist for months. In addition to the old Cubans and the people who love Trump because he turns a blind eye to the rampant fraud, a bunch of wealthy Venezuelans have moved to the county since 2016, so it was never going to be anything but close. Ironically, it looks like the "Democratic" candidate is going to win the county mayor's race. (Quote marks because the county mayor race is nonpartisan, so there is no D or R next to their name on the ballot, further reinforcing the idea that labeling all Democrats as communist works here)
posted by wierdo at 5:24 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


CNN livestream showing Biden significantly over performing Clinton in NC.
posted by darkstar at 5:29 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Oh, and I forgot to mention the fact that, as of a couple days ago, there was a large backlog of undelivered absentee ballots sitting around in Post Offices across the county. There was a big story on it in the Miami Herald if you want more details, but I'm pretty skeptical that they all got delivered by 7PM tonight, especially with DeJoy deciding to completely ignore the court order requiring that special action be taken to ensure outstanding ballots were timely delivered.

I fully expect 5 figures worth will be dropped on the election board's doorstep sometime in the next few days, which cannot be counted unless they are from military members serving overseas.
posted by wierdo at 5:31 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


darkstar: " livestream showing Biden significantly over performing Clinton in NC."

Too bad he's not running against her.
posted by chavenet at 5:33 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I’m geared up for “civil unrest” in Portland. Hitting the streets right now. See you all on the other side!
posted by gucci mane at 5:36 PM on November 3 [44 favorites]


I grew up in Texas and I'm actually feeling really good about Biden's chances there given initial numbers. My primary concerns are 1) that the sudden noise about Biden potentially winning Texas might have juiced Republican turnout in their usual strongholds, eventually offsetting Biden's gains elsewhere and 2) the Rio Grande Valley won't deliver.

That said, the numbers out of Williamson + Tarrant + Denton counties alone are eye-popping. I'm anxiously awaiting numbers out of Collin County.
posted by kilroygbiv at 5:36 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


I thought that I might be able to tolerate the NYT needle this time since they supposedly got their shit together from last time, but nope, still can't look at that thing.
posted by triggerfinger at 5:39 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Micro McGee, who is 9, kind-of panicked when he walked in and I was watching returns and he saw a map of Illinois that was red all over but for the cities. We had to take a moment and explain the concept of "the big sort" and how there are 102 counties in Illinois, of which about 16 have less than 10,000 people, and Cook County (Chicago + some burbs) alone has more than 5 million people, which isn't quite half the state population but nearly.

"Land doesn't vote, kiddo. People vote, and people live in and near cities."
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:41 PM on November 3 [26 favorites]


Statehood in PR up 188466 to 164675. That represents about a third of the votes by 2016 gubernatorial standards.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:41 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Be careful out there gucci
posted by Billy Rubin at 5:43 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Are early Democrat leads the norm in Texas? Because Biden has an 8% one at 16% counted.

Like others have said, it has been my impression that at least for 2016 and 2018 this has been the case.

That said, it didn't seem like H. Clinton or Beto held on to the lead with as many precincts reporting as of now.

MJ Hegar is looking awesome, as well. Slightly behind, but heavy blue precincts not yet reporting.

tttcs and I'll walk away for a moment to not jinx.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 5:43 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Erik Loomis on Twitter:
Vote in the Rio Grande Valley also swinging way toward Trump. Over 90% of votes in and Biden is winning Starr County by 8%. Hillary won it by 61%!!!!!

Caudilloism is a thing.
posted by non canadian guy at 5:43 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Someone explain to me why Savannah Guthrie just told me to drink if I had Chuck Todd's mom in my drinking game, I missed the joke's setup and I'm flummoxed.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:51 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


We're waiting on like 4 Florida dem counties that are sitting at 90% returned.

Come the fuck on Florida.
posted by Slackermagee at 5:51 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Biden still looking good in Ohio -- up by 11%, and the remaining votes are about evenly split between blue and red areas
posted by Zonker at 5:53 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


It could be a long night, snowmentality. And it isn't over yet, so don't be discouraged. The final result might not even be called for days.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:54 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Wow, I thought I would be able to handle watching results come in, and then I opened up that NYT needle page and got a crazy rush of anxiety. NOPE! Gonna just view the results from within the safety of this thread. Thank you all.
posted by aka burlap at 5:54 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


This is basically the same as both 2016 and 2018, when early results looked not great for dems, especially in Florida. The lesson is, that Florida is its own thing.
posted by skewed at 5:54 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I have to say I'm more than a little distressed about the weak level of Hispanic support for Biden in several states. I knew there were some warning signs in place but maybe the blatant machismo posturing by Trump actually resonates with some Hispanic populations. Weakness among Hispanic populations could negate most of the inroads Biden has been making in terms of suburban voters in the Sunbelt.

Texas and Georgia were always going to be stretch goals for the Biden campaign and Florida is always going to Florida but I'm concerned that in some states with tight margins this could be problematic.
posted by vuron at 5:55 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


In conclusion, Florida is a land of contrasts.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:55 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]




To those complaining about the needles: let's remember that the election is a 50/50 coin flip even if Trump wins all three. NYT mentions this if you click through, but if you just see three needles all pointing red and think that means the election is pointing red, that's not what's going on here.

It's misleading and irresponsible, or, basically, what we've all come to expect from the New York Fucking Times.
posted by tonycpsu at 5:56 PM on November 3 [27 favorites]


I just have entirely too much anxiety and I need to get off the fucking internet. Fuck.
posted by snowmentality at 5:57 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


The sleeper race this year, imo, is Kansas -- where Democrat (okay, until the last year, Republican) Barbara Bollier is winning against the Republican at the moment,with maybe 37% of the vote in -- and Kansas City not even reporting yet... I think there's a chance that a Democratic Senate majority comes from Kansas and Alaska and Texas and Montana other reddish-purple states...
posted by Theiform at 5:57 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Wait, NPR has Miami-Dade as 72% returned and Broward as 95%. If those are true Biden may win.
posted by Slackermagee at 5:57 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


NC slipping away...
posted by Chickenring at 5:57 PM on November 3


Truly, snowmentality, it's tough. Results should be announced after all the ballots are counted, all this early projection and modeling stuff is garbage and likely kills people from the stress.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:58 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I swear to god, if this doesn't work out we need to go burn down all of the polling companies because obviously they're either terrible or corrupt.

...there was some essay I read (somewhere on substack?) that basically said if Biden loses then the concept of empirical knowledge is itself fundamentally flawed because it is essentially impossible for the polling companies to be as wrong in 2020 as 2016, and even if they were as wrong Biden would still win, so if Biden loses it means the idea of estimating something via polling is itself impossible, which implies statistics is impossible, which implies empirical testing is impossible.

I dunno, but I'm gonna hyperventilate anyway.
posted by aramaic at 5:58 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


If Biden takes Ohio, the 528 models give him /extremely/ good odds overall. Giving trump all three of NC, FL and GA still has Biden at 99%, and giving Trump PA leaves Biden at 86%.
posted by kaibutsu at 5:59 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Meanwhile, my home state of Michissippi never disappoints in disappointing me. Fuck.
posted by non canadian guy at 5:59 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


The polls were off for Florida by, like, 4-6 points!
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:00 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I have to say I'm more than a little distressed about the weak level of Hispanic support for Biden in several states. I knew there were some warning signs in place but maybe the blatant machismo posturing by Trump actually resonates with some Hispanic populations.

... also a population people have been warning about the Biden campaign not reaching since, uhh, the primary?

(Talking more Southwest, here. The Latin vote in Florida is kind of its own story).
posted by atoxyl at 6:00 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


NC slipping away...


May I kindly request that pronouncements like this be given some context? NPR shows Biden leading in NC by 4.5% with 74% returned.
posted by darkstar at 6:01 PM on November 3 [18 favorites]


Biden still ahead in my home state of Kansas...

WTF 2020?
posted by Windopaene at 6:02 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


The ABC map is good. No needles. Easy drill down.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:02 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


CNN still has Biden ahead in NC. That’s my state so I really want to contribute to a win.
posted by freecellwizard at 6:02 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Sure. NYTimes needle starting to edge toward Trump for NC.
posted by Chickenring at 6:03 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


What's going on with Michigan?
posted by Flashman at 6:03 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


The Washington Post has an election map that seems a little more cautious with predictions than the NYT map.

On preview, the ABC map for good measure.
posted by exogenous at 6:04 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I'm finding that model helpful in estimating the impact of results, kaibatsu. A link to that model, giving TX, NC, FL, and GA to 45 and Ohio to Biden
posted by Wrinkled Stumpskin at 6:04 PM on November 3


AP also has Biden ahead in NC.
posted by lovecrafty at 6:04 PM on November 3


A friend of mine just labeled it "Schrodinger's Democracy" - does it exist or doesn't it?
posted by PhineasGage at 6:04 PM on November 3 [19 favorites]


...there was some essay I read (somewhere on substack?) that basically said if Biden loses then the concept of empirical knowledge is itself fundamentally flawed

You remembered correctly. It was on substack, and it said :

"Trump faces too devastating a situation to win. If he wins, the entire polling industry, and quite possibly empiricism itself, would be in a nearly unfathomable crisis."

Here's the link

I've been trying to assuage my stress with thinking back to that line all night. My gut feeling is we shouldn't have had an "election night coverage" this year, and just pushed it until a vast majority of precincts across the country said "okay, we're ready to report" but then, y'know, some network would be like "okay, all the ad dollars on election night are ours while we wildly project wins with minority precincts reporting!"
posted by revmitcz at 6:05 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I always start looking at my locality, since it's the one I know best. It obviously isn't much of an indicator for anything broad, but it's where I start from. My town is 100% reported, and as far as turn-out, compared to 2016 the total number of votes is all of about 2% higher, which frankly surprises me. Also my town broke almost exactly the same as it did in 2016: 60% D to 38% R.

so idk
posted by glonous keming at 6:05 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Georgia's not out of this yet. We STILL have the delays in Fulton county in the middle of Atlanta, and I'm not seeing returns from Dekalb either. It's possible GA can deliver.
posted by Room 101 at 6:06 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The Washinton Post definitely seems more cautious than the NYT, but it's all just spit in the wind right now.
posted by Kevin Street at 6:06 PM on November 3


The major population centers of Wake, Durham, and Orange Counties as well as Mecklenburg County are barely reported in NC. Those are all Democratic strongholds -- I think they may have more people combined than the rest of the state?
posted by basalganglia at 6:06 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


What's going on with Michigan?

Lots and lots of racist fucks, for starters.
posted by non canadian guy at 6:06 PM on November 3 [18 favorites]


Be very cautious about the NY Times needles. I think they are making a lot of projections based upon the % of the vote that remains to be counted in some areas that inaccurate. A lot of that seem to be based upon a belief that day of votes will swing much more heavily to Trump which will allow Trump to close the gap even in counties with big Democratic populations. Without knowing their methodology a little better I'm reluctant to read too much into those.
posted by vuron at 6:07 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


It's just not an election night without wondering what the fuck, Florida.
posted by ZaphodB at 6:07 PM on November 3 [21 favorites]


Robert Reich had a good one on the CBC just now. Asked about how he felt about Democratic chances, he said he was 'nauseously optimistic.'
posted by Flashman at 6:08 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


Though NPR has Biden currently ahead in NC by 3% with 75% reporting, it does appear that the remaining vote is shifting toward Trump, and NC may well swing back into Trump’s column. Very sorry to see that.

Holding out hope for Biden in the Rust Steel Belt.
posted by darkstar at 6:08 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


USA: What the fuck, Florida.
posted by mrgoat at 6:08 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


my anxiety disorder means i will remember very specific pieces of information FOREVER if associated with a spikey event and obv election night 2016 was extremely distressing. One of the things that stuck in my head: when the night wore on, there was a lot of talk in the thread about disappointing results re: hispanic support in either Nevada or Arizona or New Mexico, I don't recall which but I think it was Nevada, and someone wrote in the thread:

"Relax guys. She's got this."

anyways yep my palms are not sweating at all
posted by lazaruslong at 6:10 PM on November 3 [17 favorites]


Fox News (yes, I know) is calling the Colorado Senate for Hickenlooper (D), defeating incumbent Corey Gardner (R)
posted by miguelcervantes at 6:12 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


The thing to remember is whoever has won has already won. The ballots are there and need only be counted. There is no longer any race. The decision has been made. Now there is only waiting...
posted by jim in austin at 6:13 PM on November 3 [21 favorites]


If you're in the U.S. and just Google "election results", it's pulling from the AP and shows percentage returns counted and votes so far.
posted by joycehealy at 6:13 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


What's going on with Michigan?

Hardly any of the non-rural reportage is in yet. Michigan has all its population density in the southeast quarter, basically.
posted by axiom at 6:14 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Four years ago the results were not clear until 3 in the morning. Have a drink and a bong hit and some food and refresh the page. I'm monitoring this thread, two other maps, cnn, and and an alt-right site. Click, scan, repeat. All night long.
posted by vrakatar at 6:15 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


LISTEN Jim I am WATCHING VIGIL because ONLY MY ANXIETY can help save America
posted by DoctorFedora at 6:15 PM on November 3 [42 favorites]


basalganglia: yeah the Triad, Triangle, and Great State of Mecklenburg County are something like 6m of our 10.5m population, if not more. Asheville city is blue, but the mountains aren’t, really, and the coast is just a godforsaken wasteland but the sunsets are nice.

If Texas goes blue and NC stays red AGAIN I will honestly question how much my pension is convincing me to stay here.
posted by sara is disenchanted at 6:16 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Gardner was always toast. I'm feeling less confident about some of the other Democratic pickup opportunities in the Senate.

I hate that we are likely going to have to be watching MI, WI and PA all fucking night. PA is going glacially and it seems like they won't even get to mail ballots tonight in several counties. Is it really that fucking difficult to get our shit together in terms of ballot counting?
posted by vuron at 6:17 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Metafilter: What the fuck, Florida.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:17 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The thing to remember is whoever has won has already won. The ballots are there and need only be counted.

Talk about burying the lede. Whether to count the votes or not is what all the lawsuits are, and will be about.
posted by mrgoat at 6:17 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The Guardian has only just now coloured in NY blue. Very dark blue.

Phew, for the longest time there it was neutral grey.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:17 PM on November 3


USA: What the fuck, Florida.

So, business as usual.
posted by pee tape at 6:17 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The race doesn't really start until either side wins a state that it lost in 2016...
posted by skewed at 6:17 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


I also just mainlined a half a pint (Dammit siri) of Häagen-Dazs.
posted by sara is disenchanted at 6:17 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


The thing to remember is whoever has won has already won. The ballots are there and need only be counted. There is no longer any race. The decision has been made.
Except for the states where polls aren't closed yet, and anyone who was in line when their polls closed but hasn't finished (or even started) voting yet.
posted by one for the books at 6:18 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Trying to remind myself that all the good news for Ohio is probably news for all the other states Biden actually needs to win, but mostly just furious with my fellow Americans. Who votes for four more years of this?? Resigned that we're probably not going to know tonight (which especially sucks for me, I'm West coast and always assume things are going to resolve just before bedtime).

TX looks great in the cities, but apparently Biden is hugely underperforming Clinton among the border counties? Begging this to not be true.
posted by grandiloquiet at 6:18 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Is it too early to switch to gin?
(that's it's blue is truly coincidental).

Speaking of, someone mentioned Barr Hill way up in this thread. Was able to get several bottles dirt cheap as a liquor store near me was discontinuing. Now I can't find it anywhere else, and I am very, very sad.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 6:18 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Michigan has all its population density in the southeast quarter, basically.

Yeah, only about 2% of the votes from Wayne county have been counted at this point (according to the WaPo map I've got up). It's the most populous county in the state, and includes Detroit proper.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 6:18 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Now I'm watching Imprecision 2020 with Brooke Gladstone while I wait at the city office.
posted by Gotanda at 6:19 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


non mouse cow herd mefimail me you address I'll send you a case if we win tonight.
posted by vrakatar at 6:22 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


The thing to remember is whoever has won has already won. The ballots are there and need only be counted. There is no longer any race. The decision has been made. Now there is only waiting...

Schrödinger's election.
posted by clawsoon at 6:23 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I want to know how Trump has any support anywhere...but especially Rhode Island. WTF is that?
posted by maxwelton at 6:23 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


It's horrific that this is even a contest.
posted by jaduncan at 6:25 PM on November 3 [93 favorites]


I want to know how Trump has any support anywhere...but especially Rhode Island. WTF is that?

My aunt just outside Newport is big into Trump.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:25 PM on November 3


Sarah McBride (Delaware) has become the first trans state senator in US history
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 6:25 PM on November 3 [84 favorites]


MSNBC's "Kornacki Cam" was a lot funnier a couple of hours ago.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:25 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


It is so weird to be watching this thread - and texting with my daughter and assorted other east coast friends - and it’s early. For my entire life election results have been a late night thing. I thought after 2 years I had acclimated but this feels Strange. Also of course I’m terrified and flashing back to 2016, which I remember in technicolor frozen miserable detail, there is that.
posted by mygothlaundry at 6:26 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Sarah McBride of Delaware has become the first openly trans person to be elected a state senator in US history.

She won 86% of absentee ballot voters in the state’s first district, and will be the highest-ranking trans politician in the US.


(lazy paste from the Grauniad)
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:27 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


NY Times gives Trump a 92% chance of winning North Carolina
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:27 PM on November 3


Fox News calling Dems retain House and expand majority
Fox News can now project Democrats will retain control of the House and expand their majority by at least five seats. This is a major boost for Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has pledged to roll back much of Trump’s first-term agenda if he loses reelection #foxnews

(Again, sorry for going with Fox, but they seem to be the ones making the early calls)
posted by miguelcervantes at 6:27 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


It's horrific that this is even a contest.


THIS. It is a travesty that we are on the edge of our seats, fingernails dug into the armrests, worried about razor-thin margins in states where millions of citizens are voting for Trump. Again.

This should not be happening. Even if Biden pulls this out in the end, America, you are so seriously fucked up.
posted by darkstar at 6:29 PM on November 3 [123 favorites]


It was some random screenshot on Fark (so grain of salt, etc), but I saw that Biden is massively underperforming Clinton with Hispanics in several states, not just Florida.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:32 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I consider this election more about if America can soundly reject Trump's brand of fascism, and even if Biden wins I already have my answer: No, it really can't.
posted by Mr.Encyclopedia at 6:32 PM on November 3 [54 favorites]


So 538 polling average had Biden up by 2.5% in FL but looks like he is down 3.5% with 91% of votes counted (source: Grauniad). I don't know what the margin of error is, but that seems like quite the polling error in a year we were told the pollsters have it right this time! Fuck.
posted by piyushnz at 6:33 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Turns out when you make the Dem primary about fighting off the socialist horde, that hurts you in the General
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 6:34 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Texas is right down the middle with 73% counted. Like within a margin of 0.2%.
posted by Kevin Street at 6:34 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Daughter reports that literal Nazi and utterly loathsome creature Madison Cawfield has won NC’s 11th District - a good chunk of Asheville. :( thanks gerrymandering. And I thought Thom Tillis was bad.
posted by mygothlaundry at 6:35 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


From The Guardian just now:

JOE BIDEN
122 electoral college votes
27,128,329 votes

DONALD TRUMP
92 electoral college votes
27,990,287 votes
posted by doctornemo at 6:35 PM on November 3


Regarding TX, yeah Biden is way overperforming Clinton in regards to urban and suburban counties . RGV is problematic because so many of those counties are massive and have low populations with low voter turnout. So it's really unclear if any weakness in RGV votes will result in a different result. Keep in mind that Texas has been a bright red state since the 80s-90s when the last of the old Democrats started swapping party affiliation so Biden has a very big gap to make up.

It would be fucking weird for Biden to lose Florida but pick up OH and TX but neither is outside of the realm of possibility. I am starting to feel like the Miami-Dade numbers were very very driven by the concerns of Cuban-Americans and the new influx of Venezuelans. Other areas like Orlando which have larger percentages of Puerto Rican Hispanics don't appear to be as big of outliers. I hope that is more representative of other Hispanic population centers.
posted by vuron at 6:36 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I do not trust the voting machines in Florida. EVERY year the polling numbers are far off from the election results.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:36 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Mitch McConnell? Susan COLLINS? Is this real life?

I mean, I know I live in a liberal bubble, but I had no idea how small it was.
posted by bink at 6:36 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Biden can't win if the polling was as far off in the rest of the states as in Florida.
posted by dirigibleman at 6:36 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


ABC News is more cautious:

Joe Biden
89 Electoral College votes
25,418,716 votes

Donald Trump
72 Electoral College votes
26,461,641 votes
posted by doctornemo at 6:36 PM on November 3


I disagree, darkstar. What happened four years ago hurt a lot of people, and healing that and turning the country around is hard work that will take a long time. We can give up or we can fight. Lets fight tonight and fight tomorrow and never stop. If we don't we are fucked, and not in a nice way.

What happened four years ago was not normal. This is not normal (but election night, for me, is like a high holy holiday that only happens every 4 years) but we can get back to normal, politically, starting now. And I'm no big fan of normal! But we need some boring politics right now, and then we all do the hard work.

Fight.
posted by vrakatar at 6:37 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I don't claim to understand probability at all, but how can all these models keep predicting 90/10 races that magically become more like 50/50 election night? Something has to be wrong with polling or the models, right? What is going on?

So 538 polling average had Biden up by 2.5% in FL but looks like he is down 3.5% with 91% of votes counted (source: Grauniad). I don't know what the margin of error is, but that seems like quite the polling error in a year we were told the pollsters have it right this time!

This is what I mean. 538 is basically astrology at this point.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:37 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Absolutely bonkers that in Florida, well over 60% of voters voted to increase the minimum wage to $15, but Trump will likely win the state.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:37 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by inexorably_forward at 6:37 PM on November 3 [20 favorites]


The polls are way off.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:37 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


literal Nazi and utterly loathsome creature Madison Cawfield has won NC’s 11th District

NOOOOOOOOO!!! This is so upsetting. I haven't hated a candidate that much (and really enjoyed the antics of his much better-qualified opponent, Democrat Moe Davis) in about four years. Ugh. It's truly disheartening that someone as smarmy and disqualified has succeeded in this race and will have power over me.
posted by witchen at 6:38 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Google:

Joe Biden
122 Electoral College votes
Vote 48.4%
Vote count 27,353,566

Donald Trump
92 Electoral College votes
Vote 50.1%
Vote count 28,312,958
posted by doctornemo at 6:38 PM on November 3


I consider this election more about if America can soundly reject Trump's brand of fascism, and even if Biden wins I already have my answer: No, it really can't.

Absolutely this.

Unless there's a massive and comprehensive investigation into the machinery that put and kept Trump in power then it's only the names that will have changed. That structure existed before Trump, and if left will just produce another like him.

And Biden is nothing if not the sacrifice all for 'bipartisanship' candidate...
posted by Buntix at 6:39 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


I don't understand people who get off the internet because of anxiety. DO YOU HAVE SOME ANXIETY-FREE AREA I CAN JOIN YOU IN because if I slam my laptop shut I'm still going to be anxious.
posted by The corpse in the library at 6:39 PM on November 3 [26 favorites]


AP just called Colorado for Biden, so 131-92.
posted by bink at 6:40 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I have been following the results on both Politico.com and Election Night Integrity, and as each one of those sites calls a state I plug it into the election night results interactive toy thingy over on 538.

With all the states that have been called, Biden still is favored to win; and that is even WITH 538 making very different predictions for some of the states than is being forecast today.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:40 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Biden can't win if the polling was as far off in the rest of the states as in Florida.

Not an expert on this election stuff but I don’t think it’s normally a reasonable assumption that polling will be off by the same amount in the same direction across all states...
posted by atoxyl at 6:40 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


The polls are way off.

Or systemic compromise of the voting machines. I don't that can really be discarded as an impossible conspiracy theory.
posted by bcd at 6:40 PM on November 3 [21 favorites]


I saw that Biden is massively underperforming Clinton with Hispanics in several states

Yes, I've seen this as well, and if it holds up, it bodes ill for Biden not just in Texas, but in Arizona and Nevada as well. Could be a bad night.

On the other side, for those seeking some solace about Michigan: I have a source on the ground who believes they have not started posting absentee ballots yet in most of the state, based on some preliminary county returns. For the record, in Michigan everything before election day is "absentee," technically. So this means much of the Democratic vote is still to come in that state.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 6:41 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Imani Gandy on Twitter:
The betting markets just flipped. I watched them flip in 2016.

I’m gonna barf
posted by non canadian guy at 6:41 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


I don't claim to understand probability at all, but how can all these models keep predicting 90/10 races that magically become more like 50/50 election night? Something has to be wrong with polling or the models, right? What is going on?

A post from the 538 live blog that I haven't figured out how to link to directly:
It sure seems like the polls missed in Florida — and possibly elsewhere, too. Which raises a question: How do the polls miss? One thing that’s critical to know is that nowadays, response rates to surveys are very low. Even high-quality surveys get response rates of 2 to 3 percent. And it’s really hard to recruit Americans who don’t like politics — which, to be fair, is most people, though not most FiveThirtyEight readers.

I recently started with a sample of 10,000 Pennsylvania voters who had voted in only one recent election. I then sought out information on their email addresses before using Facebook to try to recruit them to take a survey. Around 1,200 people saw my ad, 48 clicked, 6 completed the survey. Today’s pollsters do innovative work but on a very hard problem.
posted by clawsoon at 6:43 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I saw that Biden is massively underperforming Clinton with Hispanics in several states

Jesus Christ, the Wall and border cages aren't directed against white people.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:43 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


With 67% of the vote, statehood for Puerto Rico is leading 52.6 to 47.3%.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:43 PM on November 3 [17 favorites]


If Puerto Rico votes yes, what happens next?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:44 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


The betting markets just flipped.

This is nonsense. Predictit had been down for hours. No one knows that the betting markets have “flipped”.
posted by mr_roboto at 6:45 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Cory Gardener is OUT. 1st senate flip. (NPR/AP)
posted by joeyh at 6:45 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


A post from the 538 live blog that I haven't figured out how to link to directly:

No, fuck that. Maybe in 2016 you can make these excuses, but you can't fuck up this badly twice in a row and retain any kind of credibility. 538 is valueless garbage. Someone needs to figure out how to do this right.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:45 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


According to CNN there is only one election tonight and that's for president. To this point, it has showed nothing about the House or the Senate races. I had to flip over to ABC to see (at this point) the Democrats two up in the Senate and the Republicans ahead in the House (which was a bizarre set of numbers). They also had results up for Cotton and some other races. NBC had a scroll for House races and a graphic for McConnell. Sadly, I'm not in charge of the TV and it's back to CNN's analysis of counties that may or may not have some influence at some point tonight. I swear this is the worst election coverage I've ever watched.
posted by sardonyx at 6:46 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Jesus Christ, the Wall and border cages aren't directed against white people.

Is there any division between Latinos who are welcomed to the US and those who try to get in as refugees?
posted by clawsoon at 6:46 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I don't claim to understand probability at all, but how can all these models keep predicting 90/10 races that magically become more like 50/50 election night? Something has to be wrong with polling or the models, right? What is going on?

The models weren't predicting 90/10 races. They predicted a 90% chance that Biden wins.
posted by callmejay at 6:46 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I don't claim to understand probability at all, but how can all these models keep predicting 90/10 races that magically become more like 50/50 election night?

90% means the chance of victory, not the expected margin.

Consider 538's EC Distribution chart here. There's a big line down the middle that represents the crossing point where one side's victory crosses over to the others. The folks at 538 think there's a 1 in 10 chance that line will fall in a place where Trump ends up with more Electoral Votes and ~9/10 chance it will that Biden ends up with more, but even in a lot of the scenarios in which Biden ends up with more, Trump still gets a lot of electoral votes and even millions on millions of popular votes.

Races are consistently close because we have institutions in this country that favor a geographic minority, and it turns out you can muster much of that minority using money, media, and various other social tendencies/institutions into a fairly coherent block with fairly predictable trigger points and fears. Even when it loses, it rarely loses big.
posted by weston at 6:47 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


The AP map seems to be following the red on the globalepidemics.org page.
posted by njohnson23 at 6:48 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


No one knows that the betting markets have “flipped”.

Sportsbet in Australia is offering $2.75 for Biden, but only $1.36 for Trump.
posted by some little punk in a rocket at 6:48 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


ABC News has New Hanover County (NC) as dem, which is actually kind of awesome because I live here and that is nice. Yay one place in SENC that’s not a shitshow!
posted by sara is disenchanted at 6:48 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


A decent current guess is Biden at +5 nationally, a 3-point error in the polls, which had him at +8. The electoral college is now a pretty close call at this point.

If Democrats win the popular vote by +5 but lose the electoral college again, it's time for rioting in the streets. The alternative is just accepting anti-democratic minority white supremacist rule forever.
posted by chortly at 6:49 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


Hey mods, do you have the links to mental health hotlines or resources? Might be a good idea to post here.

I know I'm feeling the old self harm adrenaline spikes.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:49 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]




Getting rid of Cory Gardner is a good thing.
posted by medusa at 6:49 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Is there any division between Latinos who are welcomed to the US and those who try to get in as refugees?


The Atlantic: What Liberals Don’t Understand About Pro-Trump Latinos

posted by The Hamms Bear at 6:49 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]




CO seems to have voted for Hickenlooper (D) for Senate.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 6:52 PM on November 3


I think Biden has clinched NC?

I cant see a large red county below 90% reporting and the two big dem strongholds at 90% and 80% respectively.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:52 PM on November 3


Regarding polling and polling error. Keep in mind that polling is fairly reliable in many situations but if there is a big systemic error that the polling doesn't catch for whatever reason (likely voter screens being off, trouble polling certain populations, etc) that can result in some shifts if the population group that was incorrectly polled makes up a substantial % of a given state's population.

The biggest challenge regarding pollsters these days is the challenge in actually getting people to pick up a phone poll. Most people don't have landlines particularly minority and younger populations and a lot of people won't pick up a number that they don't recognize particularly if they live in a swing state which is going to be bombarded with political outreach callers.

So if you have a case where Cuban-Americans weren't actually polled correctly that can make a big difference in a state where they are a substantial % of the population. With a perpetual knife's edge state like Florida that can result in a big shift. Keep in mind many of these polls have +/- 3-4% so yeah it looks like a lot of the Florida polls were off but how much were they really off by with most of the demographic groups.
posted by vuron at 6:53 PM on November 3


From 538:

Nathaniel Rakich
Nov. 3, 9:51 pm
It’s really tight in North Carolina. With 81 percent of the expected vote reporting (per the AP), Biden leads 50.1 percent to 48.7 percent and Cunningham leads 48.3 percent to 47.5 percent.
posted by medusa at 6:54 PM on November 3


NPR numbers suggesting Biden will lose NC.

At 71% reporting, Biden was up by about 4%.

With 87% reporting, though, Trump has whittled Biden’s lead down to only 0.2%. So these remaining votes are shifting significantly toward Trump. Maybe Election-Day votes that skew Republican?
posted by darkstar at 6:54 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


One thing that’s critical to know is that nowadays, response rates to surveys are very low. Even high-quality surveys get response rates of 2 to 3 percent.

Yeah, I'm never sure how to mention this, it always seems like "not the right time," but political polling and GOTV get SUPER annoying many weeks before the election. I don't currently live in a swing state, but my parents do. Every time I visit them near an election it is incredible to me how much other people feel entitled to bother them. I don't know what to do about it and I'm not trying to discourage others from text / phone banking, but... yeah. I totally understand people who don't respond to polls late in the game. Maybe swing state polls should find a way to account for this refusal to participate out of sheer exhaustion.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 6:55 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


For those looking for things other than the Presidential race cnn.com has pages to follow Senate, House, Governors, and more.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 6:55 PM on November 3


Come on, Pennsylvania and Michigan...
posted by doctornemo at 6:55 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


This would be easier if there were one agree-upon way of calling states.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:55 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


And some Cubans I worked with made similar comments strenuously about Mexicans.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:55 PM on November 3


The WaPo is saying that it's going to be a long night with no clear early winner.
posted by Kevin Street at 6:55 PM on November 3


The Fox News needle has NC at 95% for Biden, while the NYT needle has it at 95% for Trump. Uhh... okay?
posted by mbrubeck at 6:56 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Polls being inaccurate does not mean that empirical knowledge doesn't exist. Polls are not science.
posted by StarkRoads at 6:56 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Huzzah, I have finally caught up with the thread!

I am in play rehearsal right now and relying on this thread and my neighbors. The one on the left is clearly throwing a party (in a pandemic?! there are multiple voices and music blasting) and while we were rehearsing, someone ran out on their patio and yelled "COLORADO!" I guess now I know why....

Is any of that a good sign?
posted by jenfullmoon at 6:56 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Sportsbet in Australia is offering $2.75 for Biden, but only $1.36 for Trump.

And those odds just fell to $3 even and $1.32.

And as I typed that they're $3.20 and $1.28.

Somebody's spooked.
posted by some little punk in a rocket at 6:56 PM on November 3


> Hey mods, do you have the links to mental health hotlines or resources? Might be a good idea to post here.

The thread is moving super quick, so just in case the mods don’t see this comment, here’s the Mefi Wiki There is Help page.
posted by the thorn bushes have roses at 6:56 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


People are still standing in line to vote in some places. The media shouldn't be calling the races at all yet.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:57 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


People are still standing in line to vote in some places. The media shouldn't be calling the races at all yet.

Not to mention the unprecedented number of mail in ballots.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:59 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I can't think of a less significant indicator than Australian gamblers—there's no reason they should have meaningful information, they don't have a stake in the outcome, they're responding to the noise of their own punting. That's it.
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 6:59 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Polls being inaccurate does not mean that empirical knowledge doesn't exist. Polls are not science.

I don't think anyone's saying "empirical knowledge doesn't exist", just that we're being reassured over and over that the models are sound blah blah blah but somehow they've been massively wrong twice in a row now. Yet apparently this is not a sign that anything wrong with them or their methods.
posted by star gentle uterus at 6:59 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]




The bad feeling is sitting with me.
posted by zenon at 7:01 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Trump is going to win again. This is just like 2016 - all the states they tried to sell as "swing" states are going exactly as they always do and Trump will pick up most of them (Minnesota is going to go blue, like usual). Part of the problem is that polls are bullshit, but a lot of the problem is all the money that gets made off of coverage - "swing" states and the horse race sell ads. And the Democratic bias of the WaPo, Bezos, etc - trash people but they hate Trump, so they feed the rest of us a lot of wishful thinking.
posted by Frowner at 7:02 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Wow the expectations were so so wrong

I don't want to ever hear from James Carville again

I'm going to bed
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:02 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Yet apparently this is not a sign that anything wrong with them or their methods.

Anyone who could figure this stuff out, accurately/cheaply/quickly, would quickly find themselves one of the most wealthy people on the planet. This is an incredibly hard problem to solve.
posted by sideshow at 7:02 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I don't know how much we'll know on Pennsylvania tonight if Philadelphia can't get through their mail-in ballots -- @Holly Otterbein: "New: Philadelphia officials say they will not be reporting any more mail ballot results tonight. About 76,000 have been tallied so far — out of 350,000-some received. And remember, Biden supporters are disproportionately voting by mail."
posted by gladly at 7:03 PM on November 3


My purplest of swing states (NC) is giving me the vapors. And we don't want to go to bed until we have an idea of what's happening, because we went to bed in 2016 thinking ok, this is going to go okay and woke up and looked at our phones in horror and don't want to repeat that scene.
posted by joycehealy at 7:04 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Anyone who could figure this stuff out, accurately/cheaply/quickly, would quickly find themselves one of the most wealthy people on the planet. This is an incredibly hard problem to solve.

Sure, but they weren't this wrong this consistently before 2016. What happened?
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:04 PM on November 3


Anybody remember that close meeting of the House Intelligence Committee right after the 2016 election? Where the Dem members left looking furious, but couldn't talk to the press because of security clearances? I do.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 7:06 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


AP is reporting that Lindsay Graham win. Shit.
posted by Dashy at 7:06 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Quickly: in the US, you can call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 800-273-8255. They're not limited to supporting people at risk of suicide - around here it's answered by our regular county crisis line staff. 888-628-9454 for Spanish, veteran-specific text and chat links on the website.
posted by centrifugal at 7:06 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


star gentle uterus: The rise in spam calls, perhaps? I absolutely refuse to answer my phone unless I recognize the number, or it has a valid caller ID, because I don't want to be told about the warranty for the car I don't own, or lower the interest on an unspecified credit card.
posted by SansPoint at 7:06 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


It's horrific that this is even a contest.

I mean, I prefer to think an admitted sexual assault perpetrating impeached popular vote loser who has never had a net positive approval rating and has just killed 230,000 of his countrymen hasn’t a snowball’s chance but I guess red states gonna red state.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:06 PM on November 3 [29 favorites]


I remember that in 2016 it was said that Trump supporters were lying to both the pre-election and exit pollsters. Perhaps they've merely lied in greater numbers this time.
posted by orange swan at 7:07 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


What Happened 2 book deal just inked.
posted by Beardman at 7:07 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I don't think anyone's saying "empirical knowledge doesn't exist", just that we're being reassured over and over that the models are sound blah blah blah but somehow they've been massively wrong twice in a row now. Yet apparently this is not a sign that anything wrong with them or their methods.

There was a post to exactly this effect upthread:

if Biden loses it means the idea of estimating something via polling is itself impossible, which implies statistics is impossible, which implies empirical testing is impossible.

So it seemed useful to de-conflate polling and statistics qua statistics. If the underlying data is incorrect, it's not going to create good models. GIGO.
posted by StarkRoads at 7:07 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Sure, but they weren't this wrong this consistently before 2016. What happened?

in 2012 Karl Rove literally sprinted downstairs, on live TV, to yell at the people calling the races for Obama because he thought they couldn't possible be right, based on polling.
posted by sideshow at 7:07 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Yeah, this is really disappointing. trump's leading in Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, all appearing to trend his way as more day-of votes come in. North Carolina looks like it's going to go trump too, as later votes come in. A lot of those mail-in votes are going to be tied up in court until ever.
posted by mrgoat at 7:07 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


they weren't this wrong this consistently before 2016. What happened?

The number of households without a landline phone increased to the point where traditional telephone-polling methods became unreliable and unlikely to obtain representative samples?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:07 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Yeah...the states we are all most desperate to see results from — those that Clinton lost in the upper Midwest plus Pennsylvania — are not going to have their results tonight.

I was hoping to see a blue wave carry some of the other swing states and maybe even stretch goals. But that’s not happening. It’s going to be another long, hard slog waiting for the vote tallies in PA, MI, WI.
posted by darkstar at 7:07 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Sure, but they weren't this wrong this consistently before 2016. What happened?

My guess? Social media radicalization + inability to actually contact enough people to get an actual statistically relevant sample.
posted by tclark at 7:07 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


NC is weird, does anyone have clarity on Granville, Perquiman and Franklin counties in terms of population size and expected voting percentages? Like others I'm looking at all of these red rural counties at 95%+ counted and even with big percentages for Trump in them that's simply not a ton of remaining votes while the urban centers of Raleigh, Charlotte and Winston-Salem still have 10% or so outstanding votes. Is the assumption that the last votes to count will be heavily Republican in makeup?
posted by vuron at 7:09 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


[Couple things deleted over the course of the thread. I want to remind folks to avoid repeating shitty/racist language other people have used, even demonstrably. Voting and polling demography are obviously a factor of analyses tonight but take care not to let that make hispanic or latinx identities into some abstract topic of discussion.]
posted by cortex (staff) at 7:09 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


A lot of cities still haven't fully reported yet. In PA, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh metro) is only at 15%, and Philadelphia is only 20%, at least according to NPR.
posted by SansPoint at 7:10 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


From 538:
In case you still harbored any hope of getting a projection in Pennsylvania tonight, 274,000 mail ballots in Philadelphia County won’t be counted until tomorrow at the earliest. These votes are likely to be overwhelmingly for Biden.
posted by sideshow at 7:11 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I remember that in 2016 it was said that Trump supporters were lying to both the pre-election and exit pollsters. Perhaps they've merely lied in greater numbers this time

This was never true.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:11 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Yeah, this is really disappointing. trump's leading in Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, all appearing to trend his way as more day-of votes come in. North Carolina looks like it's going to go trump too, as later votes come in. A lot of those mail-in votes are going to be tied up in court until ever.

Don't even start thinking about Wisconsin at this point. There have been no results reported from Milwaukee yet.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 7:11 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


This is nonsense. Predictit had been down for hours. No one knows that the betting markets have “flipped”.

Trust me, as someone who trades those markets they very much have. The differences aren't that much by nationality either.
posted by jaduncan at 7:12 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Okay, people keep talking about landline polling. Landlines? I guess I'm not some PhD genius, but why on Earth is anyone using landlines for anything in 2016, let alone 2020? Were the telegraph polls not reliable enough?
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:12 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Potential good news from Arizona:

Nate Silver
Nov. 3, 10:08 pm
Doing this math quickly, but Biden leads by about 145,000 votes in Arizona’s Maricopa County early and absentee votes. Republicans won the Election Day vote today there by 34,000 votes, so that looks like it would not be enough for Trump to overcome Biden’s current lead.
posted by medusa at 7:13 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


It appears that the remaining votes in NC are being being modeled in two different ways, leading to wildly divergent conclusions.

One model seems to be tracking the trend of votes that have been tallied in the past hour. Those are skewing heavily toward Trump. Which, if it continues, would give him the state.

The other model seems to be looking at where the remaining vote is still uncounted. Which appears to be predominately in Dem strongholds. Which suggests Biden has a lot of votes to be counted.

(Unless, the bulk of the remaining votes in the Dem strongholds are day-of votes, which could be Trump-favoring.)
posted by darkstar at 7:14 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Landlines are a concession to unacceptable return rates on the traditional pigeons.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:14 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


The first polling errors of this sort that I noticed were the UK election of 2015 and the 2016 Brexit vote. Both made the same error as occurred in 2016 in the US, and I think a similar error has also happened in other countries. Propensity to respond to polls or be reachable by pollsters has apparently become correlated with ideology, with a lower propensity to respond or be reachable among the right, leading to a pro-left bias that is only revealed during the election. The pollsters are aware of this problem, but apparently their efforts to fix it (eg by weighting by education) may not have actually fixed it.
posted by chortly at 7:14 PM on November 3


So has anyone ever done a modern (i.e., after maybe 1975) economic analysis of what the US would be like if we'd just kicked the Confederacy to the curb? No Florida Man, no Mardi Gras parades (without a tourist visa), no Texas-the-state-as-big-as-a-country?

I see these results in Kentucky and Georgia and I just feel like we're still two different nations.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:15 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


From someone watching very anxiously from your northern neighbour country, this is just extremely disappointing. I feel sick to my stomach that this is even close, let alone that Trump may in fact, win. 2016 seemed like a one-off - a vote against the Clinton franchise. There's no such excuse this time.
posted by patternocker at 7:15 PM on November 3 [17 favorites]


My parents, 79 and 85, have a landline. They have cell phones they use rarely--flip-phones. They have never used a smartphone.
posted by Schmucko at 7:15 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Fantastic news about AZ, medusa, if it holds.
posted by darkstar at 7:15 PM on November 3


vuron - Raleigh Charlotte and W-S will be dem. I will eat my hat if they aren’t.

What I want to know

is how Cooper won re-election (awesome) by 6% and the senate and presidential numbers are freakin tied?!
posted by sara is disenchanted at 7:15 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


The differences aren't that much by nationality either.

Yes, because the opinions of people who can't even legally vote in our election matter.
posted by sideshow at 7:16 PM on November 3


More from Nate Silver / 538 re AZ: "Arizona’s pretty important here, obviously. If Trump wins Georgia, Florida and North Carolina but loses Arizona, his chances fall to 20 percent. If he wins Arizona in addition to Georgia, Florida and North Carolina, his chances improve to 55 percent instead, as Biden is then almost entirely dependent on the Midwest."
posted by reductiondesign at 7:16 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


"NC is weird, does anyone have clarity on Granville, Perquiman and Franklin"

I wouldn't hold your breath on Perquiman. Franklin is now part of the far outer Raleigh suburbs ... but I think probably pretty R still. Granville ... I think is probably still pretty R. NC is 100% about voter registration and turnout in Wake (Raleigh), Durham, Mecklenburg (Charlotte). (Forsyth Co less so -- that's Winston-Salem, and it's pretty R still. But votes in Winston matter for the electoral college!)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:16 PM on November 3


"why on Earth is anyone using landlines for anything in 2016, let alone 2020?"

We used landlines in our Vermont home through 2018, because the town had zero cell phone coverage.
posted by doctornemo at 7:16 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


people keep talking about landline polling. Landlines? I guess I'm not some PhD genius, but why on Earth is anyone using landlines for anything in 2016, let alone 2020?

They aren't so much, which is the point; assigned landline telephone numbers were published in the white pages unless you paid extra to have an ex directory number. There is no such conveniently accessible listing of mobile numbers. Pollsters relied on landline calls; as the percentage of the population using landlines decreased telephone polling became less representative and thus less reliable.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:16 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


538 has projected a big night for President Garfield.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:17 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Dreary, exhausted thoughts here, and I have to go to sleep:

1: Please do not be 1876.
2: Please do not be 2016.
3: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio - c'mon, you can do it.
4: If Trump wins, then:
-damn the GOP not for success, but for whatever voter suppression they did
-damn the Dems for screwing up again, with all of their money and vaunted brains
-what now, pollsters?
-what now, non-Fox news media?
-and what do we all do now?
posted by doctornemo at 7:17 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


More from 538 on NC;

Laura Bronner
Nov. 3, 10:13 pm

North Carolina has reported about 84 percent of the total number of expected votes there tonight, and so far, as we expected, an early lead for Democrats that was due to mail and early votes is narrowing significantly as more Election Day votes are being reported. But late-arriving mail ballots, which may be more Democratic, could still shift the race.
posted by medusa at 7:17 PM on November 3


I wonder how much of the reluctance to answer a phone poll nowadays is fear of being put on a "list" of non-supporters of an aggressive ideology. There is literally no telling who is running the polls, what their agenda is, or what the consequences of answering their questions with an honest answer are. So why pick up and answer at all?
posted by Blackanvil at 7:18 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


We might need more Airplane quotes in this thread... here's one regarding the bouncy needles:

"He's all over the place! Nine hundred feet up to thirteen hundred feet! What an asshole!"
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:18 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Nobody reputable is 100% landline polling at that point but voice poling of wireless is still a bit of an issue for the reasons other people have mentioned regarding the actual hit rate for talking to an actual human since pretty much everyone actively screens phone numbers they don't recognize particularly out of state.

There is a big increase in using online poling through mechanisms like Amazon's Mechanical Turk but it's unclear exactly how good the samples you'd get from those sorts of respondents because you might under sample low engagement voters or any demographic group that has technology impairments.
posted by vuron at 7:18 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


A lot of folks I know who have spent the last few weeks telling everyone “Don’t expect results on election night! Spread the word!” are currently acting like they expect results on election night. I get that what’s at stake here has got us all extremely on edge, but I’m trying to keep in mind this was never going to look like election night on any other year and the final result will not be known before we go to sleep.
posted by churl at 7:19 PM on November 3 [56 favorites]


I think the Blue Shift is going to be a real factor in this election. It's not going to have a clear winner at first or Trump might even end up ahead tonight, but the Democrats will do better and better as all the votes are counted.
posted by Kevin Street at 7:19 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


As far as PA: the "early voting" in Philadelphia (not sure about the rest of the state) was all technically vote by mail. The early voting offices were basically a place to request and then immediately receive, mark, and return a mail-in ballot--so there's also that.
posted by needs more cowbell at 7:20 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Thanks for that, churl!
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 7:20 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


My stepdad’s first name was Justice but he went by his middle name. He was referred to as “The Honorable” more than once in the local paper.

I know we are now into the agonizing over state results phase but I really like this. It reminds me: Canadian ex-prime ministers tend to keep a much lower profile with their more chill public than do American ex-presidents. Most people from outside the country, if they can name one Canadian PM, that name will be Pierre Trudeau (father to our current PM). Trudeau père was in office almost continuously from 1968 to 1984 and was as beloved and hated as any politician. By the nineties, I used to see him pushing his baby daughter on the swings in the park a few blocks from my house.

Anyway, he was out of office for about ten months in 1979-80, when he briefly lost the job of PM to then-leader of the Tories, Joe Clark. Don’t feel ashamed if the name is unfamiliar: even in Canada during his era, he was widely known as Joe Who? Clark is retired from politics now but still with us at age 81. As with all former PMs, he is formally addressed as the Right Honourable.

He has remarked slightly ruefully that due to his legendarily low-profile career and unremarkable name, he often answer the phone to telemarketers and such looking to speak to “Mr. R.T. Hon.”
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:20 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


In CA, where it's early, wondering if I can take a melatonin and pass out until the midwest is called.

Re: polls, there's "live" phone polls and supposedly online polls which are supposed to catch people like me who would never be caught dead answering a call from a stranger. The live polls have showed less of a Biden advantage. I've never been contacted by either, I don't think.
posted by grandiloquiet at 7:20 PM on November 3


Eyebrows, I’ll respectfully disagree with you about Winston. It’s quite quite quite liberal and the Triad has a huge number of BIPOC (for a long time Winston-Salem was one of the most proportionally large Hispanic areas on the east coast). Source: I spent 12 years there and I still have a lot of friends and family there.

Now the areas to the west and north are extremely red. I’ll give you that.
posted by sara is disenchanted at 7:20 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


When they say x% of votes counted, does that mean Nov. 3 votes only, or mailed ballots as well?
posted by mefireader at 7:20 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


churl, I think we're looking not so much for results so much as "enough of a lead that Trump won't declare victory yet and that will at least put a pause to the fuckery."
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:20 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I wonder how much of the reluctance to answer a phone poll

FWIW, but the majority of people I know (ranging from 18 to 75) do not answer the phone for a number that isn't already in their contact list -- figuring that if it's important they'll leave a message. Pollsters never leave a message.
posted by aramaic at 7:20 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


doctornemo: We used landlines in our Vermont home through 2018, because the town had zero cell phone coverage.

Same here, in a small cellular dead zone in Rhode Island. Of course, now the landline goes through the FiOS Internet strand, not copper, so when the power is out I have to walk a quarter-mile out to the busy road to get a cell signal, and... :7(

DIAF, Verizon, I guess.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:21 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Yeah, Philadelphia had about 350,000 mail/in-person absentee ballots that they couldn’t start opening up until this morning. They’ve gotten through 70,000; the rest of them they’ll try to report tomorrow.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 7:21 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Can mods add a "bananapudding" tag to this post?
posted by neuron at 7:21 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Following up on mefireader: when e.g. the LA Times map says 97% of precincts in Florida are reporting, how does that relate to the fraction of votes counted? I.e. might that just be 97% of in-person voting, but there's another 50% of votes yet to be counted because they are mail-in? Where does one find that information about the degree of completion of vote-counting?
posted by brambleboy at 7:23 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Pew Research: Key things to know about election polling in the United States.

Meduim.com: Addressing the “Landline Only” Polling Myth - an analysis of how the 400+ polls used by 538 actually reach participants.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:23 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I wonder how much of the reluctance to answer a phone poll

I just wanted to say before checking out that almost nobody I knows actually answers the phone anymore because of robocalls and scams. I probably get minimum five scam calls a day on my landline.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:23 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Also, number portability means that you can have a Portland (ME) phone number and live in Portland (OR) these days, and the pollsters can't know if you're worth calling to build their sample set.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:24 PM on November 3


538 had Biden winning even if the polls were as off as they were in 2016. WTF?
posted by kirkaracha at 7:24 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Where does one find that information about the degree of completion of vote-counting?

https://2020.dataforprogress.org/state/fl
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:24 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


And frequently my answering machine announces a call in its robot voice as "SPAM CALLER" because that's what the boilerroom operator actually put in their CallerID field, and not what Verizon flagged it as being!
posted by wenestvedt at 7:25 PM on November 3


Some anecdata.

Nate Cohn: "An ominous sign for Biden in Pennsylvania: Trump running ahead of his 2016 performance in Trumbull County (Warren, near Youngstown and on the west PA border) with nearly all of the vote counted"

Kathleen Grey: "The city of Detroit exceeded voting turnout expectations, with 53 to 55 percent of the city’s 510,000 voters casting ballots. The turnout number could prove critical to Democratic hopes. In 2016, 40,000 fewer Detroiters cast ballots than in 2012, and President Trump won the state by the smallest margin in the country — 10,704 votes — over Hillary Clinton."
posted by reductiondesign at 7:27 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Bruh, I did so much, I tried so hard. Did we do enough?
posted by KGMoney at 7:28 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


538 had Biden winning even if the polls were as off as they were in 2016. WTF?

Nate Silver a couple days ago: "I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win"
posted by craven_morhead at 7:28 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]




Off of fivethirtyeight.com:

Nate Silver
Nov. 3, 10:28 pm

This is a potentially material issue in Georgia. A reported 80,000 mail ballots are delayed in being reported in Gwinnett County because of a software error. Those are likely very blue votes.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 7:30 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


From NYT:

14 minutes ago
Reid Epstein in Madison, Wis.
Biden leads Maricopa County by 10 points so far, with three-quarters of its vote estimated to be counted. If that margin holds up it will be difficult for Trump to win Arizona.
posted by medusa at 7:30 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


It is 3:30 AM in the UK. Some sadistic fuck has invited me--the only American in the building--to a 9:30 AM meeting. I have killed an entire bottle of vodka trying to numb myself to relax enough for bed.

The rest of you, hold the fort for me, would you? I'm going to try to get enough sleep to be barely functional in about six hours.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 7:30 PM on November 3 [32 favorites]


I cannot handle this. I need hope, someone give me hope.
posted by FritoKAL at 7:31 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


538 had Biden winning even if the polls were as off as they were in 2016. WTF?

They were couching their forecast pretty strongly, that Trump's 10% chance was the same as a rainy day in LA, which is a thing that happens. And you know, fair enough. Sometimes the other guy is going to get a royal flush.

But what does a 90+% forecast even mean if you get the big call wrong twice*?

And it's easy to blame the pollsters when we should be blaming the voters, but kee-rist -- what good is this whole business of polling if we can't rely on it?

*Not yet, but...
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:32 PM on November 3


I’ve seen enough. I’m going to bed.
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:32 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Isn't this exactly what everyone was expecting? Trump would appear ahead on election night because of all of the mail-in voting (that they discouraged their own voters to do) and try to call the election despite the bazillions of mail-in ballots still required to be tallied. Bernie Sanders kept repeating that this would probably happen and to NOT FALL FOR IT. So, like, no need to freakout yet. Don't admit defeat, you are helping them by doing so.
posted by thebots at 7:33 PM on November 3 [64 favorites]


re: North Carolina: is how Cooper won re-election (awesome) by 6% and the senate and presidential numbers are freakin tied?!

NC politics are weird and when I say NC is purple, I'm not kidding. Until the NC house and senate took a hard run to the right in 2016 and we went for President Obama in 2012, we tended to prefer our national politicians (president, senate) to be Republican and local officials (governor and down) to be Democrats (these are gross generalizations with lots of exceptions). The whys, I'm too tired to dig into right now, but my former colleague who sat in the NC house for decades, Dr. Paul Luebke (RIP), wrote an excellent book that, while dated, explains a lot of the roots of this whole mess.
posted by joycehealy at 7:33 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


FritoKAL, we're all going to be OK. Maybe not "taco trucks on every corner," but OK. Hang in there.
posted by wenestvedt at 7:33 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


what good is this whole business of polling if we can't rely on it?

Because no one, including 100% of people reading this thread, would take "I guess we'll find out the second Tuesday of November!" as an answer.
posted by sideshow at 7:34 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I haven't felt this bad since I saw that Ronald Reagan movie.
posted by swift at 7:34 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Nobody's calling Illinois yet because Cook County (Chicago + some burbs) hasn't reported out numbers yet, probably because people who were still in line were still voting, and Illinois can't start counting mail votes until after the polls close (despite being one of the voter-friendliest jurisdictions in the country). But y'all can call Illinois for Biden. It's not a "Trump running well" issue, it's a "Cook County being slow to report" issue.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:34 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


It was always going to be Trump on election night and Biden with the mail-in votes. Florida, Georgia and NC were always very close. Florida: 2.5% Biden, Georgia: 0.9%, Biden; North Carolina, 1.7%. (538 averages). Things will go really wrong if Trump gets Pennsylvania 4.7% Biden, Michigan 8.0% Biden, Wisconsin, 8.3% Biden.
The above are states that Trump won in 2016.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:36 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


FritoKAL, I am at this very moment taking comfort in Joy Reid’s shirt, which is this blood-colored half-armored katniss everdeen thing and it is gorgeous.
posted by mochapickle at 7:36 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


"Eyebrows, I’ll respectfully disagree with you about Winston."

Winston is amazeballs! Forsyth County still trends red. Need those Winston votes towards the state totals, but I never get excited about Forsyth County. :)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 7:37 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


My parents, 79 and 85, have a landline. They have cell phones they use rarely--flip-phones. They have never used a smartphone.

Frau Biscuit and I have a landline, mostly because her long-retired dad worked for the phone company and got her a sweetheart deal on a great package when such things were hard to come by. We pay nickels for it and there is no particular reason to discontinue it. If you’re on your way home and you’ve forgotten your keys, why call three different numbers to get someone to open the door when you could call one?

All four of our parents (ranging in age from mid-seventies to mid-eighties) have landlines in their three households. Among them they have three cell phones: my dad, a longtime computer programmer, is an enthusiastic smartphone user. My mom took a while to be persuaded that texting is not terribly fearful. My in-laws’ views of cellular telephones can be summed up by the fact that their daughter once tried to reach them with a time-sensitive matter while they were driving to Florida and they expressed puzzlement at “where that music was coming from.”
posted by ricochet biscuit at 7:37 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Here's some hope for you:

Nate Silver
Nov. 3, 10:32 pm
The New Hampshire projection is a pretty decent sign that the polling error might not be as large outside of Florida.
posted by medusa at 7:37 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Folks, Wake county (Rayleigh) is 30% reported in NC with a population of 1 mil. Guildord and Forscythe are another 800K at around 80%.

There are ten Trump leaning counties below 90, only 2 below 50. Combined they might have 800K.

I honestly think Trump has lost NC.
posted by Slackermagee at 7:37 PM on November 3


For those starting to feel anxious, as someone who has been big on the "do not expect clear results on election night" front: do not expect clear results on election night. That's never been the case before and this year especially there have been multiple factors complicating everything - from the logistics of the plague to open fascist interference. Please don't feel disheartened by a red mirage and remember that this was always going to be a longer fight than election night itself.

It is going to take time but the fascists have not won.
posted by Lonnrot at 7:38 PM on November 3 [31 favorites]


Isn't this exactly what everyone was expecting? Trump would appear ahead on election night because of all of the mail-in voting (that they discouraged their own voters to do) and try to call the election despite the bazillions of mail-in ballots still required to be tallied. Bernie Sanders kept repeating that this would probably happen and to NOT FALL FOR IT.
human psychology is wild, we spent literal months telling each other that Election Night is a Myth and that things will be shaky and then the SECOND polls close, we're like "DELETE ALL PREVIOUS COMMANDS. RUN PROGRAM SCREM.EXE"
posted by sideshow at 7:39 PM on November 3 [47 favorites]


Addressing the “Landline Only” Polling Myth

Not claiming that landlines have much or any relevance to polling, overall, in 2016 or 2020; they likely did in 2012, 2008 and earlier (data obtained by the CDC as part of an ongoing community health survey initiative indicate that the inflection point where mobile phones overtook landlines was right around 2015.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:39 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Thank you joycehealy. My mother’s family has been here since the late 1600s and she swore to me that NC politics was pretty jacked. She was a strong dem, including campaigning for both Kennedys (which was quite scandalous in those days). We weren’t super close, but I am grateful she didn’t have to live through 2016. My family is a very liberal bubble with all Democrats except for an uncle and myself who are Democratic Socialists (don’t worry; we always vote straight dem in non-primary elections, and he escaped to Colorado in the 70s and never came back).
posted by sara is disenchanted at 7:39 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


It is going to take time but the fascists have not won.

Maybe, but they're making a much better showing than they should be. If Biden ends up winning, it won't be by much. That's worrying.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:39 PM on November 3 [18 favorites]


Because no one, including 100% of people reading this thread, would take "I guess we'll find out the second Tuesday of November!" as an answer.

(Raises hand) I have studiously avoided reading any predictions or polling results. Of course, even if you try to avoid it, you end up seeing it here or there, but I never sought it out, and didn't read it when presented with it. I would not only have taken "I guess we'll find out the second Tuesday of November!", I would have strongly preferred it. So not quite 100%.
posted by Bugbread at 7:39 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe Arizona.
posted by Kevin Street at 7:40 PM on November 3


Maricopa is very interesting results. I'd be very curious if the numbers there are due to voters 65+ abandoning Trump due to the COVID fiasco. Phoenix and Scottsdale are as ridiculously grey as they used to be but still those numbers are very impressive for Biden. Arizona is very sparsely populated outside of Phoenix and Tucson and while there are some very red areas in parts of the state there are also some expat Californians as well at Native American voters who could easily negate any attempt to cancel out a big shift in Maricopa.

Keep in mind that Arizona + WI + MI + NE2 is the ballgame even if PA does something funky assuming Trump doesn't pick up a random Clinton state.
posted by vuron at 7:40 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


And NYT:

7 minutes ago
Trip Gabriel in Butler County, Pa.
The early exit polls of Arizona show voters over 65 prefer Biden by 5 percentage points. In other words, this is not your grandparents’ Arizona, full of conservative retirees.
posted by medusa at 7:40 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


It's so hard, but this is what we expected. We need to be patient and let the counts come in.

At this moment Nebraska 1 is showing a 13 point Biden lead (Trump is projected to win) and Nebraska 2 is showing a 3 point Trump lead (Biden is hoping to win). Neither is likely indicative of anything but that the votes are still being counted. And that is within a single relatively small state.

I offer this as a microcosm of why we shouldn't jump too quickly to conclusions based on partial counts of only some of the states.
posted by meinvt at 7:41 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


If Democrats win the popular vote by +5 but lose the electoral college again, it's time for rioting in the streets. The alternative is just accepting anti-democratic minority white supremacist rule forever.

Precisely the situation the Electoral College was intended to foster.
posted by The Absolute Victory Unlosing Ranger at 7:41 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


To give a personal anecdote on how "there is no such thing as 'election night'": In 2018, when I went to bed there were zero Democrats elected to Congress in Orange County, CA. All five were still help by Republicans. In the first three days, I think maybe we had two (including my then rep Katie Porter of whiteboard fame) switch. to Democrats. During the next 2 or so weeks, we finally had all 5 districts go blue.

It takes a long time to count votes.
posted by sideshow at 7:42 PM on November 3 [21 favorites]


I need to remember to not get hopes up or I will jinx everything. I've spent four years prepping for the worst, I need to not listen to anything else that jinxes now.

Gonna go watch some Stargirl since my rehearsal wound up early.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:44 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


People have been calling for Election Day to be a national holiday, but now I'm thinking the day after Election Day should be a national holiday.
posted by perhapses at 7:45 PM on November 3 [42 favorites]


RUN PROGRAM SCREM.EXE

I ave n muth. I mst screm.

And I am. Screaming inside my heart in a teachers room with a bunch of brits and an australian treating the whole thing like an amusing diversion, chortling about the returns.
posted by Ghidorah at 7:46 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


So we had 5! residents from the Bay Area come out to Tucson to work as Dem poll watchers. Only one watcher from each party is allowed inside the 75ft radius at one time, so they took shifts and otherwise sat outside in the sun with voting information. If any of them are mefites, Hi, and thank you for coming out! No republican poll watcher came. Very busy day, lots of brand new voters of all ages.
posted by lizjohn at 7:47 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Can someone explain if these projections include mail-in votes at all? in some states? all states? i'm deeply freaking out right now
posted by daisystomper at 7:48 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Meh, the electoral college could just vote however (mostly). We're all sorta fucked. U.S. national election system is all f'd up and weird. I'm too too old for this.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGG.
posted by zengargoyle at 7:49 PM on November 3


It's true that it's still way too early to call with all the early votes, but we do know enough to see that this isn't going to be a 400+ EV Democratic blowout with Biden and/or Senate wins in Florida, South Carolina, Kansas, Alabama, etc. That's a legitimate thing to mourn, even if Biden does eventually win somewhat comfortably. In a more rational country this thing would have been called by 8 PM EST.
posted by Rhaomi at 7:49 PM on November 3 [33 favorites]


Election night was hoping that FL, GA or NC could come through with a big early result that would immediately doom Trump. We all know that WI, MI, PA will be glacially slow in terms of counting ballots and there is a likelihood of some shenanigans in each of those states. FL going for Biden would've been straight up game over and polling there looked more reliable for being a good pickup opportunity than OH or IA.

Arizona polling was actually much more knife's edge towards the end so if Biden wins there I think Trump is totally on the backfoot.

Still pace ourself with your libation of choice unless you are willing to go to sleep in a sense of gutwrenching unease. I would also try to avoid working on anything challenging at work tomorrow since you'll likely be utterly useless.
posted by vuron at 7:50 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Democrats projected to retain control of the House of Representatives — NOV 3 202010:23 PM EST, CNBC.

Fox News projects Democrats retain House control, gain at least five seats, New York Post, November 3, 2020 | 9:57pm.

So there’s this, at least. Pelosi will remain a thorn in the GOP’s side.
posted by cenoxo at 7:53 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I would also try to avoid working on anything challenging at work tomorrow since you'll likely be utterly useless.

*looks around nervously*
posted by cortex at 7:53 PM on November 3 [62 favorites]


Has anyone else been watching the Washington Post's strange little robot coloring in the electoral map with markers while making grinding noises, as someone coughs lightly in the background?

Surreal as it is, I find it somewhat less stressful to watch, as it only colors in confirmed states and provides no commentary.

Update: Background Person is clearly watching videos without realizing that the audio is being picked up.
posted by Comet Bug at 7:54 PM on November 3 [15 favorites]


There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.
posted by tonycpsu at 7:55 PM on November 3 [19 favorites]


It's true that it's still way too early to call with all the early votes, but we do know enough to see that this isn't going to be a 400+ EV Democratic blowout

It means, win or lose, you'll probably see someone who looks an awful lot like Trump in the 2024 Rep primaries. Authoritarian nationalism has been proven at the ballot box twice, and the real danger is the leader who is more competent than Trump.
posted by jaduncan at 7:56 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Omg I love the marker robot so much. Thanks for this little bit of levity.
posted by oulipian at 7:56 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


It'll be Trump Jr. in 4 or 8 years if he's not in prison.
posted by The Hamms Bear at 7:57 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.

I'll be deep in the cold, cold ground before I recognize Missourah.
posted by star gentle uterus at 7:57 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Comet bug, that robot was making such a cool noise before.
posted by h00py at 7:58 PM on November 3


So we don’t get the Blue Tsunami tonight. That’s definitely disappointing.

For those looking for reasonable hope:

Just as a reminder, the 2016 EV margins were: Trump 304 vs Clinton 227.

So now we have to flip only 35 EVs away from Trump’s 2016 map to make this work.

AZ = 11
MI = 16
WI = 10

That’s 37.
posted by darkstar at 7:58 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


vuron ha ha haaaa I have to co-facilitate a meeting about gun violence including both anti-gun activists and gun shop owners tomorrow morning at 11.
posted by centrifugal at 7:58 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


It'll be Trump Jr. in 4 or 8 years if he's not in prison.

With his drug habit, I don't see that happening.
posted by valkane at 7:58 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Can someone explain Virginia ? Trump is ahead on counted votes but I see some projections for Biden. Is that just a guess based on proportions of urban votes remaining? We are definitely winning VA right?
posted by freecellwizard at 7:58 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I hope Trump loses and runs in 2024 this time from prison and screws up the Republican party by getting the nomination and loses again by even more. (Or else I hope I never hear of him again.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:59 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.

RHODE ISLAND GOES FIRST, FOLLOWED BUY ONE OF THOSE BIG, DRAWN-WITH-A-RULER STATES WITH ~50K PEOPLE AND TWO WHOLE SENATORS.
#CaliforniaLove
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 7:59 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Omg I love the marker robot so much. Thanks for this little bit of levity.

Someone in the background is playing WAP. Serious.
posted by mochapickle at 8:00 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


DC suburbs haven't come in. VA should be safe for Biden.
posted by vuron at 8:00 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


So there’s this, at least. Pelosi will remain a thorn in the GOP’s side.

Or we could try to start promoting leaders under 70.
posted by HumuloneRanger at 8:01 PM on November 3 [30 favorites]


RHODE ISLAND GOES FIRST,...

Fuck off, speaking as a naturalized Rhode Islander. We were here first, before most of the rest of you!
posted by wenestvedt at 8:02 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


I'm confused, I read above that VA was already called for Biden but WaPo has mad King ahead by 8%?
posted by Dashy at 8:02 PM on November 3


I'm confused, I read above that VA was already called for Biden but WaPo has mad King ahead by 8%?

It's based on polling data for the metro areas.
posted by jaduncan at 8:03 PM on November 3


Hey, um, is it actually appropriate to call a suicide hotline about an election? I am trying not to puke all my dark thoughts here where they could trigger other people, and I feel ridiculous for wasting the time of a hotline with my stupid feelings when I already know I won’t have the guts to follow through on them. But I am really not doing great right now.
posted by snowmentality at 8:03 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


Can someone explain Virginia ? Trump is ahead on counted votes

Smaller, lower-population counties report results first; DC metro/NoVa are so heavily Democratic that those early results will get swamped.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 8:03 PM on November 3


Ok, California is closed. Time to hammer ocvote.com to see if OC stays blue.
posted by sideshow at 8:03 PM on November 3


There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.

RHODE ISLAND GOES FIRST, FOLLOWED BUY ONE OF THOSE BIG, DRAWN-WITH-A-RULER STATES WITH ~50K PEOPLE AND TWO WHOLE SENATORS.
#CaliforniaLove


Okay so hear me out.

2 leagues, 4 divisions, 25 teamsstates each, any state that wins 3 elections in a row ascends to America 2 where we start over for real this time.

Long naps between elections.
posted by curious nu at 8:04 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I feel ridiculous for wasting the time of a hotline with my stupid feelings when I already know I won’t have the guts to follow through on them. But I am really not doing great right now.

Before anything else, take care of your own health. If you were suicidal because of your bad haircut, you should still call. The value is in you, not the thing that is triggering you. If I was on that line, I'd absolutely want to talk to you.
posted by jaduncan at 8:04 PM on November 3 [69 favorites]


Hey, I went off to make supper and the map looks much better now!
posted by Kevin Street at 8:04 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Hey, um, is it actually appropriate to call

The answer is Yes, always Yes.
posted by aramaic at 8:04 PM on November 3 [61 favorites]


It's perfectly appropriate to call a hotline for what ever in the world makes you feel suicidal. Brains are mean and they lie. Please call.
posted by Dashy at 8:04 PM on November 3 [25 favorites]


Hey, um, is it actually appropriate to call a suicide hotline about an election?

Yes, it is. Go ahead and call. Do it right now. Then come tell us about it. We'll be here.
posted by medusa at 8:04 PM on November 3 [25 favorites]


Snowmentality:

You should absolutely make that call.
posted by argybarg at 8:05 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


So now we have to flip only 35 EVs away from Trump to make this work.

Yeah, but we have to do it without Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all reporting solid trump leads with ~50% reporting, according to AP. Ohio reporting 90%, trump leading by 10. North Carolina and Florida both reporting over 90% with trump leads, Georgia has 65% and trump up by 10 again. It's gonna be tough.
posted by mrgoat at 8:05 PM on November 3


snowmentality, it is appropriate to call a suicide hotline for any reason at all if you are feeling like you need help right now.

I would totally back you calling them if you think it would help you right now.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:05 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


I'm trying to remember how this all went down four years ago. Things had swung so far they were basically called by the end of the night, weren't they? Whereas tonight what we have is "we probably won't know for a while". Right?
posted by wanderingmind at 8:05 PM on November 3


Yeah, fuck all this election noise. Call the number.
posted by swift at 8:07 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


By this time last election the election was called for Trump, wanderingmind. Take that as you will.
posted by linux at 8:07 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


PA only started counting mail in ballots today, and it's expected to take days.
posted by Dashy at 8:07 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The huge difference from 2016 is the massive mail-in vote that simply didn't exist then. That's what makes Election Night less definitive this time around.
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:07 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


I'm trying to remember how this all went down four years ago
Four years ago I was doing the same thing as I was doing today, slamming that F5 key at work like the lab rat on its drug button, and by this time of the afternoon my coworker and I were despondent, it was done and dusted. Nothing like today, nothing at all.
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 8:07 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Things felt worse. WE thought we were going to do something special then. Now, we've learned to accept the worst
posted by Windopaene at 8:07 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Right. Because there are so many mail ballots and they are skewed in favor of democratic candidates.
posted by kerf at 8:08 PM on November 3


States like Pennsylvania and Michigan probably won't be settled tonight, wanderingmind. So we probably won't know for a while.
posted by Kevin Street at 8:08 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


PA is still nowhere close to going red. According to NPR, Philadelphia is only 34% reported, Montgomery at 29%, Delaware at 16%, and Bucks is at 12%. Allegheny county (Pittsburgh) is only 17%
posted by SansPoint at 8:08 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Hey, um, is it actually appropriate to call a suicide hotline about an election? I am trying not to puke all my dark thoughts here where they could trigger other people, and I feel ridiculous for wasting the time of a hotline with my stupid feelings when I already know I won’t have the guts to follow through on them. But I am really not doing great right now.

I used to work for one, and the answer is empathically YES. They are prepared to talk about a lot of things that cause people distress, anxiety, discomfort, not just suicidal thoughts. Call. Worst case scenario is they'll redirect you to a different resource to help with your concerns. Please call.
posted by nubs at 8:08 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


More 538:

Nathaniel Rakich
Nov. 3, 11:03 pm
It was always a long shot that a winner would be declared tonight, but now it looks like we might not even have a good idea who’s won when we go to bed. Georgia has had enough problems that it seems like it will be impossible to project tonight. North Carolina looks close enough that it might come down to late-arriving mail ballots. And we’ve long known that results in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin won’t be final for a day or three. Ultimately, I think the presidency comes down to those three states — which, unfortunately, we know the least about right now.
posted by medusa at 8:09 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Thanks vuron. I can see now that Fairfax County is only 28% reported so that makes sense.
posted by freecellwizard at 8:10 PM on November 3


Snowmentality:

Are you on the West Coast? You can call me. I’m not trained, but I’ll gladly listen.
posted by argybarg at 8:11 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Sat here earlier listening to NPR with a commenter saying "Texas is for Trump, there's no doubt about that" about 10 minutes before 7pm. Y'all I'm tired of hearing this. I'm disappointed every election but I like to see that we're not quite blown off yet.
posted by hillabeans at 8:12 PM on November 3


Hey, um, is it actually appropriate to call a suicide hotline about an election?

um here, and you have my permission
posted by um at 8:12 PM on November 3 [78 favorites]


I read last week that Biden's favorite poet is Seamus Heaney, so tonight I am reading a "greatest hits" of his called "100 Poems," and it's pretty good stuff.

Who do yo think Trump's favorite poet is?
posted by wenestvedt at 8:12 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I think we all (or at least most of us) know that we won't have official official results tonight. But I think a lot of us were hoping for enough of a clear win that we could get a decent night's sleep, and are still following along to get a sense of what the likely shape will be of the GOP ratfuckery we'll have to endure.

Speaking of ratfuckery: Pa. Senators Corman (Majority Leader) and Scarnati (President Pro Tempore) are calling on Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar to resign, accusing her of “fundamentally altering the manner in which Pa’s election is being conducted” twice in the last two days.

Pennsylvania's definitely a state the GOP is looking to steal.
posted by mstokes650 at 8:12 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


To pitch into this concerning close call catastrophe cauldron: I've always been concerned with it since the 2008 election, wherein after the disaster that was Bush/Cheney/Rummy/et al., the popular vote was a mere 53-46 favoring Obama... very close to 50/50. This was followed by 51-47 favoring Obama in 2012. We know what happened in 2000, and 2016, and we know that prior to 2000 when the circus really started with Curious George Bush (Fool-as-Presidential-Candidate Beta), Clinton had followed 12 years of Republican rule, led by Reagan. Could've been 16 years if, by some accounts, H.W. Bush hadn't looked at his watch in a debate.

So... the USA is big, confusing from a pure logic standpoint, and with consideration of the Bushes and Cheney for that matter, we're a rather high-power lever in geopolitics. I just got done reading Daniel Yergin's new book, "The New Map", and as quality global news is hard to come by over here (let alone anywhere, I bet), it was interesting to read about what's going on with Russia NOT involving the USA. Energy is a powerball, and we ignore/dismiss it at our own peril, much like climate change.

I guess at the end of the day, I hope Trump posed too much of a risk in the current geopolitical environment that the electoral college tilts over to Biden. Republicans really don't make sense for a presumably developed country as the USA, Trump especially so. I just hope that the nonsense is enough to consider competent USA head in the geopolitical field.

(I just pulled the 2008 and 2012 results from Wiki FWIW)
posted by JoeXIII007 at 8:12 PM on November 3


Just had to explain to my dog:

Oh hell no, you're not going to bed yet. You don't have many jobs in this house, but this is sure as hell one of them. Sit your stinking ass down and radiate that unconditional love.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:13 PM on November 3 [52 favorites]


snowmentality: YES YES YES. You may be on hold for a bit, people are when there's a national crisis. Don't hang up, we're here if you need to be held up while you wait.
posted by centrifugal at 8:13 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Statehood for Puerto Rico has essentially won. Up by 4.5% with 88% of vote in. The PNP looks victorious, although with a plurality.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:13 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


Who do yo think Trump's favorite poet is?

Kanye West
posted by mstokes650 at 8:14 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


This is another reason for DC statehood. Not only would it give those residents actual representation, and add a Rep and two Senators that are expected to be Dems, but would also give them three EVs, at least two of which (from the Senators) would be new-to-the-mix, in the Presidential race Electoral College.
posted by darkstar at 8:14 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Can we make an effort to knock it off with doom and gloom scenarios and how fucked up this country is tonight? I come here for a slower pace than the adrenalin jacking CNN, MCNBC, et al. At times I value the intelligence and humor of fellow MeFites. And too many times, I get tired of the air-sucking, diminishing negativity that I often find here.

For tonight, some of us want to feel hope. I don't give a damn about projections of imminent disaster. I give a damn about feeling hope, getting decent information and analysis of what's possible and what's not, and getting to smile and laugh every now and then.

Right now, what matters to me is that "we" end up in the win column. And it looks as if this is going to take some time to find out. Can we at least make an effort to encourage other and keep each others spirits up. Please?

Mods, delete if necessary if this is off-topic
posted by goalyeehah at 8:15 PM on November 3 [39 favorites]


Hey, I went off to make supper and the map looks much better now!


Try making a dessert or something, let's see how far we can take this thing.
posted by The Hamms Bear at 8:15 PM on November 3 [34 favorites]


Looking on the bright side, it looks like New Mexico will have our first black state senator.
posted by NotLost at 8:15 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Please try not to be doom and gloom about PA yet. If you look at the county reporting numbers many of the Red counties are reporting 70%+ of votes tabulated while the Philly counties and Allegheny counties are in the low teens for the most part. And that's also with the caveat that mail ballots will likely not be counted in several counties today and most indications are that those will be predominantly Democratic in nature.

Keep in mind that PA, MI and WI were always going to look red due to day of votes and Biden would start to reel him in as time went by. The challenge is to avoid looking at the sea of red now and falling into a false narrative that isn't substantiated by enough data points. Yes Trump might win all of those states again but we don't have enough good numbers to actually indicate that right now.
posted by vuron at 8:15 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Who do yo think Trump's favorite poet is?


Andrew Dice Clay.
posted by The Hamms Bear at 8:15 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


The NYT's NC needle just swung rather dramatically closer to tossup.
posted by oulipian at 8:16 PM on November 3


Errin Haines on PBS has great art on her walls behind her.
posted by spikeleemajortomdickandharryconnickjrmints at 8:16 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Who do yo think Trump's favorite poet is?

Adolph Hitler.
posted by valkane at 8:16 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Okay, I've had about as much as I can handle, i'm turning on reruns of The Good Place.
posted by skewed at 8:17 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Who do yo think Trump's favorite poet is?

that guy from nantucket
posted by 20 year lurk at 8:17 PM on November 3 [29 favorites]


Errin Haines on PBS has great art on her walls behind her.

And David Brooks lives in a castle?
posted by swift at 8:17 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Who do yo think Trump's favorite poet is?

Ted Nugent.
posted by vrakatar at 8:17 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


I am still cautiously optimistic that we can flip 37 EVs once it’s all done.

In the Steel Belt and AZ...this really does seem doable.
posted by darkstar at 8:17 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I'm still pretty confident of the arithmetic working out in the states where counting continues but I've got to say the thought of a lot of edgelord Australian gamblers losing a lot of money is very, very cheering.
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 8:17 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


From Julia Azari on 538:

As I’m watching us go back and forth about the Electoral College, and seeing all this energy going into counting and calling different states, it also occurs to me how much energy the debates over electoral machinery distract from discussion of actual substantive issues that affect people. Maybe it’s just late, but this feels unsustainable.
posted by geegollygosh at 8:18 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Who do yo think Trump's favorite poet is?

Trump's favorite everything is Trump.
posted by swift at 8:18 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


Where are the Senate races at? Are the Dems still looking to flip it?
posted by star gentle uterus at 8:19 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Must say, it was nice to see the Graun's instantaneous update adding the entire west coast for Biden (as you'd expect).

209-118 feels a lot nicer, if only for now.
posted by UbuRoivas at 8:19 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Did NJ just legalize marijuana?
posted by cazoo at 8:20 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


This is really a different year. In the past pretty much all sources called races nearly in unison, with some minor variation at the edges. This year each tab I have open has a slightly different total going. It is clear that the count is coming in slower, and is a lot more difficult to interpret than in the past.
posted by meinvt at 8:20 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


swift: "I'm the best poet, the best you've ever seen. My poetry is so good, it has, you know, the rhythm and the meter. It's not this free verse stuff, that terrible free verse stuff that poets write these days, you know. It doesn't even rhyme! It doesn't even rhyme this poetry."
posted by SansPoint at 8:20 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Did NJ just legalize marijuana?

Yes!
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:21 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


According to WaPo the Senate is currently 42 Dem 38 Republican, but there's still too many races up in the air to know the final results.
posted by Kevin Street at 8:21 PM on November 3


My friend was just elected my city's mayor, so YAY!!! Time to start asking her to make citywide proclamations when we are out for drinks, written in pen on the back of bar napkins. Mayor proclaims that quesadillas are the best cheese and tortilla based food! Mayor proclaims that my dog Lucy is the CUTEST puppy in town and that today is LUCY DAY 2020!!!! Etc Etc Etc.

That's all the election stuff I can take in at the moment. My 16-hour election judge day is done and I'm going to bed. Mayor makes proclamation that Gray Duck has no further work to do tonight and that she is cleared to go to bed.
posted by Gray Duck at 8:21 PM on November 3 [36 favorites]


Thoughts on the Senate from 538.

Matt Grossman: "Even if Biden is elected president, he is now more likely to face a Senate that is either Republican-controlled or has a slim Democratic majority, with moderates as pivotal votes."

Nate Silver (30 min ago): "The Senate’s not looking fantastic for Democrats, and the scenarios where they have some huge majority are likely off the table."
posted by reductiondesign at 8:22 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


"Smaller, lower-population counties report results first; DC metro/NoVa are so heavily Democratic that those early results will get swamped."

As a more general thing, as voting methods have modernized, frequently wealthy suburban counties have been able to modernize, and small rural counties are still able to count by hand/on old equipment very quickly, but large urban areas often couldn't afford upgrades and can't count as fast as tiny counties can. In traditionally red states, this is often much worse, as they've often actively prevented urban areas from upgrading voting equipment (whereas in states like Illinois, it's a question of funding and priorities). Urban counties are also MUCH more likely to still have people in line when polls close -- they have a lot more people!

All things being equal, urban counties will report more slowly, because they have MANY more people, MANY more absentee/mail and early ballots, and MANY more provisional ballots, simply because they have many more voters. But all things are NOT equal, and urban counties tend to be underresourced for voting.

On top of that, mail-in ballots are at a record high this year -- Cook County (Chicago + suburbs) alone have mail-in ballots amounting to about ONE-FIFTH of the TOTAL STATEWIDE vote in 2016. (Twice as many in suburban Cook, FOUR TIMES AS MANY in Chicago.) Nearly half of the 2016 Cook County total (around 2 million) was cast by mail this year (around 1 million). That's just unprecedented! (Illinois, in particular, makes it SUPER easy to vote -- no ID, motor-voter, election-day registration, no-excuse absentee voting, extended polling hours -- but doesn't begin tabulating mail-in/absentee votes until after polls close on election day.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 8:23 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I am still cautiously optimistic that we can flip 37 EVs once it’s all done.

This really does seem doable.


Why settle for 37 when 38 are in grasp?

(yeah, it's gonna take work.)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 8:23 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Looks like Fox is calling AZ for Biden. Super good news if that holds. Fox has been calling stuff waaaaay earlier than everyone else it seems like.
posted by sideshow at 8:25 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I think the Senate is going to be an either a 50-50 or a 51 seat majority for either party.

Gardner and Jones are already gone. Kelly should easily win in AZ. Democrats really need to beat Tillis and/or Collins. I have no confidence that Ernst will lose at this point based upon current results but still early.

I think we can safely say that expanding the SCOTUS is off the table at the current time which was always really going to require removing the filibuster and getting something like a 53 seat majority since conservative democrats were going to be reluctant to sign on so you need to provide them the opportunity to vote against it.
posted by vuron at 8:25 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Help me understand: We've been told not to expect a definitive answer on election night. But the New York Times and the Washington Post seem like they are calling states definitively. I feel like I am missing something, but maybe I am only looking at the results superficially.
posted by NotLost at 8:26 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]




Some states, e.g. CA, are pretty easy to call. Others, like AZ, I am genuinely surprised to see called. (Although fairly happy about that, being as I live in AZ).
posted by nat at 8:28 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


So I had to unfriend a FB friend tonight. Grade school legacy friend, not actual friend. He’s been posting right wing shit to my page a lot lately — anti-mask stuff, Covid is no worse than flu stuff, Epstein was killed stuff, blah blah blah. Even stuff saying that the Moon is hollow and is hiding a secret base inside (which I thought he was joke trolling me about, but, uh...). Anyway, tonight he was gleeful about rescuing the country (not ours) from the corrupt pedophile, and — yeah, this is where I get off.

I hated doing it. He’s had a rough go of life going all the way back, but — enough already.

But the bizarre thing is thinking that his whacked-out views are somehow in the majority tonight.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:28 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Nebraska!

Nate Silver
Nov. 3, 11:19 pm
Biden leads by 9 points in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and, more unexpectedly, by 11 points in Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District. However, early votes were expected to be counted first in Nebraska, which means the results will likely become redder later on.
posted by medusa at 8:28 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I think we can safely say that expanding the SCOTUS is off the table at the current time which was always really going to require removing the filibuster and getting something like a 53 seat majority since conservative democrats were going to be reluctant to sign on so you need to provide them the opportunity to vote against it.

Just speculation on my part, but I would think a 50 or 51 seat Democratic majority in the Senate might make it easier to get someone like Manchin on board with ending the filibuster because it would give him enormous leverage.
posted by jedicus at 8:28 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


From Big 538 Nate himself:
Just speaking hypothetically: If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but Biden wins Arizona, Biden is an 85 percent favorite in our scenario generator. There’s a 6 percent chance of an Electoral College tie, though.
posted by sideshow at 8:29 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


David Brooks has pillows on the top shelf. Why. Who does that.
posted by The corpse in the library at 8:30 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Brianne Pfannenstiel (@brianneDMR): "Polk County, Iowa auditor's website showing all precincts reporting. This is another Democratic county, and it is the state's most populous. Unofficial results: Biden: 56.3%, Trump: 41.3%. Hillary Clinton carried Polk Co. in 2016 51.3% to 40.1%."
posted by reductiondesign at 8:30 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Not to sound like a NYT needle but FWIW the betting markets are starting to move back towards Biden after the AZ call.
posted by BeginAgain at 8:30 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


NYT says Shalala defeated in FL-27.
posted by medusa at 8:31 PM on November 3


Various states like CA are locks although actually getting full vote totals takes forever in CA. In the end CA is utterly predictable on a statewide level but there is quite a bit of variability in regards to individual congressional districts and state legislatures.

In general Biden and Trump come into today with x number of absolutely guaranteed electoral votes with really only about 10-12 states that are really up for grabs to any degree. Various news organizations will look at current vote tallies and look at where uncounted ballots remain and try to make a determination on how likely it is that the result could shift. After 2000 and 2016 most news organizations are very reluctant to call a state unless it's pretty crystal clear.

It's honestly kind of amazing that AZ is already getting called by some organizations this early. That's a massive win for Biden if true.
posted by vuron at 8:32 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Legal weed! More funding for education! Biden! Kelly! AZ has flipped!
posted by lizjohn at 8:32 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


And flipping Arizona is good. Quite good.
posted by medusa at 8:32 PM on November 3


Yeah, it's hard to see it, but Biden taking AZ is actually a big fucking deal, it closes off a lot of Trump scenarios. I was hoping that AZ would ice things and I could go to bed, but I'll take what I can get at this point.
posted by skewed at 8:33 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Help me understand: We've been told not to expect a definitive answer on election night. But the New York Times and the Washington Post seem like they are calling states definitively. I feel like I am missing something, but maybe I am only looking at the results superficially.

There are many states which are tilted far enough to one side or the other that they are easy to call. What is not expected tonight is a definitive call on enough states in the middle to demonstrate one candidate has reached the 270 electoral vote threshold to be declared the winner.
posted by meinvt at 8:33 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


2016.11.08 my first comment on metafilter:
So: some notions I think are relevant and under-appreciated:
--abortion: absolutely nobody who calls themselves pro life would ever vote for Clinton, and if one is motivated to vote at all, that single issue is it. That's the ball game with them. Trump is apparently a wild card on this issue if you've been paying attention in the long term, but yeah right. He'll promise, and maybe even act on, whatever the deplorable base will vote for.
--unions and their similars: in my work, I meet with these people every day and have yet to meet one who does not present as a likely Trump voter. Relying on people who tighten bolts in an assembly plant is a losing proposition when faced with the trade-related promises of a Trump.
--Race/ethnicity/religion: huge numbers of Americans would be relieved to never - literally NEVER - talk to or even see a non Christian, non white person. Voting in a way that advanced the interests of any group but their own is not even on the table.
See bullet #3 especially.

All that coverage about early voting as favoring Democrats? I think that is pushing in-person voting by white people who are motivated to make sure they get counted.

Things aren't looking great, friends.

From my second comment on Mefi:
If you are a pro in something, work that acre. You can do good work.
posted by Caxton1476 at 8:33 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


AZ is huge, Biden can realistically win without PA now
posted by Zonker at 8:33 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Our Trump-crony Congressman is way ahead, but only 58% of the vote is in. GAH!
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:34 PM on November 3


To get at the 'when will we know?' angle, do we have any poll numbers for the mail-in percentages vs. in-person?
Anecadatally, I voted in person around lunchtime. Last time around, the place was as full as you'd expect, with a few minutes wait for all the few dozen folks in front of me voting in person; and the little counter on the front, of ballots already tallied, was in the triple digits.
Today, mine was ballot #20.
Mail-in voting has usually been for deployed military, college students, and snowbirds; people who happened to be out of state on election day. Pretty much everyone else voted in person.
That's a small enough segment that if it took an extra week to get those postal or drop-off results counted, the results were already decided.
If that ratio has flipped because of the 'Rona, then
a) it's an unprecedented number of postal ballots that there isn't a familiar process for handling, much less reporting on.
b) the numbers you're seeing tonight, from in-person exit polls, might mostly be from the population segment that either is defiantly voting in person and refusing to wear a mask; and 'why of course, sidewalk clipboard person, I DO have 5 minutes to talk about the environment!'
'Calling it' for anything tonight is probably a bad idea.
posted by bartleby at 8:35 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Oh, and I didn't even think about it, but Arizona is the first flip, a 2016 red state turned blue. First for either side. Game on!
posted by skewed at 8:36 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


I am personally not piping down until we shake off Republican control.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:36 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I know it's horrifying that the repudiation of Trump isn't more sweeping and definitive, but I think, overall, things look good. Trump won in 2016 by the slimmest of margins in a handful of states -- which, thanks to Republican shenanigans (i.e. their lawsuits to delay counting of mail-in ballots), we won't know results from for a few days.

But in the majority of the states we do know, he is several points behind his 2016 numbers. E.g., leading Texas by 5 points compared to a 9 point win in 2016. Seems to have lost Arizona compared to a 2 point win in 2016.

It still all comes down to the blue wall states (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania) and based on what we've seen tonight, we have every reason to think Biden can win those. We just have to be patient and count all the votes.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:36 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]




Yeah assuming WI and MI come through and with Detroit increasing turnout and WI being utterly beatdown by a COVID outbreak I think those are quite likely Biden just needs to hold Clinton states like NV (virtual lock given AZ) and pick up 1 EV (likely NE-2 but maybe MA-2). The fact GA and NC will likely not be called tonight will mean that despite the sea of red out there Trump won't have any solid way of claiming a illusory victory tonight which gives us time to count all the votes no matter how long that takes.
posted by vuron at 8:38 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


If you want to streamline voter registration, you could borrow from the Canadian system. There's a box on our tax returns, which we can check to register to vote at the same time.

All this in BC and for Provincial elections because we just had one and I worked it so the info is fresh (it's long TL;DR: registration can be easy and painless):

Besides tax return registration we also have driver's license/BCID registration. You can also proactively register at any time in person at the elections office; or by toll free phone; or mail, fax, or email; or using an online form. The only requirements to send the form in is your name, birthday and address though they ask for things like driver's license number you don't have to provide it even if oyu have one. All the proactive options are available to 16-17 year olds and they will automatically be registered to vote on their 18th birthday.

But that only matters because it makes getting people to vote and letting them know where in an efficient manner because we have same day registration, the law is everyone who wants to votes, and same day registration is easy. So to same day register you need:

Option 1: One (1) of Drivers License, BCID, Photo BC Services Card (most everyone has one because it's how you access healthcare), Status Indian ID, or any other BC or Federal government issued ID with your name, address and picture.

Option 2: any Two (2) of the following options: Non Photo Goverment ID; the old style BC ID Care card; Firearms License; Passport; Birth certificate; Military ID; any government issued document like Tax statement or government cheque stub/statement; any document issued by a school, college, university; any other document like bills; bank statements; membership card (EG: Gym, Costco, Video Rental); one of your own bank printed cheques; bus pass; Hospital bracelet (a white strip of plastic they wrap around your wrist when admitted); residential lease; or statutory declaration signed my a notary or lawyer.

For option two hand written leases (so if you rent a room from your brother for hockey and weed you are good to go), electronic versions of any documents (log in to your bank account on your phone and show the worker). However one of them must include your address.

If for some reason you don't have that you can get any registered voter from your district; OR a parent, grand parent, adult sibling, adult child or spouse whether they live in your district or not; to just vouch for your identity and address at which point you'll be able to register.

If you can't manage any of that you can still vote provisionally (I don't know how this works) just by making a solemn declaration.

Provincially you can vote at any polling place regardless of where your residence is located. So if you are taking your parent to vote but you don't live in the same voting area you can both vote at the same place. Car breaks down 1000kms from home? You can vote where ever you are.

And of course we have absentee, advance and mail in voting. Plus people with disabilities that prevent voting in person including self-isolation because of COVID can vote by phone.
posted by Mitheral at 8:38 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Lord, grant me the serenity to withstand a gleeful David Brooks.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:38 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Are we SURE about Arizona? I'm not seeing that called on any of the sources I'm looking at (Politico and ABC News).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:38 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


A bit more about WaPo’s Scribit drawing robot.
posted by cenoxo at 8:39 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


No, we're not sure about Arizona yet. But it looks good.
posted by medusa at 8:40 PM on November 3


Who has called what: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/upshot/network-race-call-tracker.html
posted by craven_morhead at 8:40 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I think Fox News are the only ones to have called AZ
posted by sporkwort at 8:40 PM on November 3


Are we SURE about Arizona? I'm not seeing that called on any of the sources I'm looking at (Politico and ABC News).

We are not sure, not really. Especially since, oddly, the news organization that called it for Biden was FOX.
posted by mstokes650 at 8:40 PM on November 3


Matt Grossmann, 538: "Fox News, which has its own decision desk and exit poll data, has called Arizona for Biden and Florida for Trump. They also called the Arizona Senate for Kelly. We have seen no other news organization call Arizona, which may mean this call is premature. Keep an eye on other outlets to see if they wind up backing up or conflicting with Fox."
posted by reductiondesign at 8:40 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


It's just Fox News calling AZ, but they are usually pretty good about this sort of thing. They have been quick on the call so far tonight, but not in an obviously bad way.
posted by skewed at 8:40 PM on November 3


> Just speaking hypothetically: If Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, but Biden wins Arizona, Biden is an 85 percent favorite in our scenario generator. There’s a 6 percent chance of an Electoral College tie, though.

The "scenario generator" is a very slick visualization, but playing around with it a bit, it seems to suffer from a lot of the same problems as the polling, which is that it relies on modeled similarity between states to make "if state A goes for candidate X, state B probably goes for candidate X as well", which doesn't seem very reliable given some of the results we've seen tonight.

Don't get me wrong -- Biden taking Arizona would be "huge if true", but not as "huge if true" as Silver is suggesting.

And let's not put it in the column just yet because the network that employs Tucker Carlson and Jeanine Pirro is calling it.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:40 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


538

Matt Grossmann
Nov. 3, 11:33 pm
Fox News, which has its own decision desk and exit poll data, has called Arizona for Biden and Florida for Trump. They also called the Arizona Senate for Kelly. We have seen no other news organization call Arizona, which may mean this call is premature. Keep an eye on other outlets to see if they wind up backing up or conflicting with Fox.
posted by medusa at 8:41 PM on November 3


Who has called what: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/upshot/network-race-call-tracker.html

Which, at the moment, is still pretty blank in terms of the battleground states, but biden's EC totals have been inching up in all of them.


Electoral votes
270 to win
Trump 114 111 114 114 148 162 118 114 118
Biden 187 185 192 192 223 205 209 192 209
Not called 237 242 232 232 167 171 211 232 211

posted by Gelatin at 8:43 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


That Matt Grossmann/538 statement is, like, anti-informative.
posted by sagc at 8:44 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


The NBC broadcasts I was watching basically called AZ for Biden - that there weren't enough voters in the rural areas to help Trump out, and that the Tuscon area Hispanics came out bigger for Biden than they did for Clinton 4 years ago.
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:45 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


FWIW the betting markets are starting to move back
The model behind the betting markets is customers who go in knowing they're going to lose; that's why it's called gambling
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 8:46 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Arizona potentially being the state that tips the election away from Trump and to Biden would be John McCain's ultimate revenge

McCain likes Presidents who aren't fascists.
posted by jaduncan at 8:47 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


Thank you Tucson voters! I have a crap ton of family in that area that hopefully post COVID I can visit safely (lots of old people).
posted by vuron at 8:47 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Also Georgia and North Carolina are too close to call, that's significant.
posted by medusa at 8:49 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]




So we need 35 EVs to flip.

AZ gives us 11.

We need 24 more.

Come on, MI (16 EVs) and WI (10 EVs)!

(PA and GA would be nice, too, just to pad the margin. Their goose isn’t cooked, yet!)
posted by darkstar at 8:52 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


NYT:
3 minutes ago
Reid Epstein in Madison, Wis.
Remember, as you see Wisconsin results come in, that in many jurisdictions the absentee ballots won’t be counted and reported until ALL the absentee ballots are counted.
posted by medusa at 8:53 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


PA is still very much in play.

EDIT: Very good point, medusa.
posted by Kevin Street at 8:53 PM on November 3


A high school friend was a poll worker in Atlanta today, and reports that of all the voters that came through, his favorite was the last; he says that two minutes before the polls closed, a minivan came TEARING into the parking lot, and almost before it stopped the door flung open and a woman jumped out, leaving the van running, and ran hell-for-leather into the polling place. "DID I MAKE IT????" the woman frantically shouted at him.

He was enormously tickled and made sure she got to vote.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:54 PM on November 3 [49 favorites]


Reid Epstein, NYT: "It is taking longer than expected to count the ballots in several places in Wisconsin because officials have found the machines do not count ballots as fast as they’d expected."
posted by reductiondesign at 8:54 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


CNN has called Virginia for Biden but I'm not seeing this anywhere else. If true, HUGE sigh of relief.
posted by andruwjones26 at 8:55 PM on November 3


We've been told not to expect a definitive answer on election night. But the New York Times and the Washington Post seem like they are calling states definitively.

1. Writing “we don’t know yet, and we won’t know until all the mail-in ballots are counted,” doesn’t drive clickthroughs and page views. Because every news source is sprinting to be the first one to get the news, a lot of the time the news will be wrong. Even 70 years ago when journalistic integrity was seemingly taken much more seriously by all parties, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN didn’t sink the paper that ran it.

2. Do you think the Tangerine Man spun stories about the three million votes margin for Clinton being from dubious sources? Wait until the tweet saying, “Even the failing New York Times says I won,” and fantasizing about how the mail-in ballots are being filled in days after the election was decided so they can be counted.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:55 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


From Minnesota, I...do not expect Trump to win MN.

I see so many people in my Twitter feed wondering how this race can be so close, and I agree with them. But I have a lot of Republicans in my circles and what I've been seeing from them the past few years is completely mind-boggling. They are just living in an absolutely alternate reality and they're absolutely serious about it. Even in the last week or two, they've been posting electoral maps that are almost all red, and they're serious. I mean, they have California going red.

The power of the right-wing misinformation ecosphere is breathtaking; is massively damaging to our democracy and the very tenets of society; and is not taken nearly seriously enough. We do not make things better until and unless we find a way to beat this - Donald Trump or not. We just cannot make things work if we have 1/3 to 1/2 of the population living in a different reality.

Evan McMullin:
While it's too soon to know the presidential race outcome, this is clear: we must do more to counter the alternative information space FOX News and other Trump media create for Republicans. The race should not be this close given the objective reality of Trump's performance.
posted by triggerfinger at 8:55 PM on November 3 [45 favorites]


So who has been watching Wisconsin? Has it been getting closer as more votes are counted?
posted by medusa at 8:55 PM on November 3


NYT called Virginia for Biden as well. EDIT: And Fox.
posted by reductiondesign at 8:57 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Does anyone have a good location for watching senate results! Especially a comparator of who has called what senate seats which way would be lovely.
posted by nat at 8:57 PM on November 3


CNN has called Virginia for Biden but I'm not seeing this anywhere else

It's also thus on Politico and on the Election Night Integrity Project.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:58 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


we must do more to counter the alternative information space FOX News and other Trump media create for Republicans

As pointed out elsewhere by other people, right-wing garbage is free, while you have to pay for real journalism (mostly; the Guardian and Vox are the only two centrist-to-leftish media outlets I can think of that are free).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 8:59 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Try this page from CNN for the Senate races.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 9:00 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Why is Texas still too close to call? Looks solidly trump. What am I missing?
posted by double bubble at 9:00 PM on November 3


Me and my pal are watching all the maps, and Fox has like 80 more electoral votes called than anyone else.
posted by butterstick at 9:01 PM on November 3


Thanks RD and EC, I guess I was surprised to not see the other tv networks cover it yet but definitely plenty of sites on the NYT tracker have updated. If Virginia flipped that would be very, very bad indeed...
posted by andruwjones26 at 9:01 PM on November 3


I'm fairly optimistic about Wisconsin at this point due to the absentee ballots coming in last and the fact that Dane County (Madison) is extremely Blue and Milwaukee has a ton of outstanding votes. There are still quite a large number of uncounted votes and some counties haven't even started reporting yet but given that Trump's current lead is pretty meager I think he's going to have trouble holding WI. I haven't really started looking super in depth at Michigan yet but Detroit, Lansing and Ann Arbor all have a lot of uncounted votes still and I can't see there being a ton of remaining big pockets of red but Trump has a bigger cushion right now so who knows.
posted by vuron at 9:01 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Jonathan Lai (@Elaijuh) via 538: "The confusion might be that people are looking only at the PA Dept of State’s results page. That page right now says for Philly: 74,132 Biden, 32,414 Trump. The city’s own page: 248,931 Biden, 78,136 Trump"
posted by reductiondesign at 9:01 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Texas still has a large number of outstanding votes to be counted.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 9:02 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Fox has called Texas and Ohio for Trump.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:05 PM on November 3


A rough night following this by myself, folks, but watching the victory speech of no-nonsense guy like Mark Kelly, husband of the extraordinary Gabrielle Giffords, is proppping me up a bit.
posted by NorthernLite at 9:05 PM on November 3 [16 favorites]


It’s 12:04 ET and it looks like Trump hasn’t tweeted in 5 hours, and this makes me feel like maybe the internet is broken. Was I the only one who thought he’d have been tweeting every 7 minutes and called the election by 11:59 at the latest? (IS my Internet broken? Have I slipped off yet another branch of the parallel universe?)
posted by instamatic at 9:06 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


ABC calls Ohio for Trump.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:06 PM on November 3


What do we think about Pennsylvania? Currently Trump +15 on NYT tracker?!
posted by medusa at 9:07 PM on November 3


Trump was leading in the final polls in Texas and Ohio so these were not surprises.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:07 PM on November 3


I remember 2016. Pennsylvania voter, here. You can see what's going on with the Pennsylvania vote here: https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Basically, RIGHT NOW, 348,000 mail in ballots of Philadelphia are uncounted.
224,000 mail in ballots in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh area) are uncounted
Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware (Philly collar counties) all have 100K mail ins uncounted.

It's going to take a while to cont these.

Please don't give up on PA yet.
posted by which_chick at 9:07 PM on November 3 [17 favorites]


NYT's needle just swung Georgia to 65% Biden.
posted by oulipian at 9:08 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


medusa: I think we need to wait until the Philly Metro area results are in.
posted by SansPoint at 9:08 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


PA is going to be the long haul. Nothing till tomorrow
posted by perhapses at 9:08 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Pennsylvania doesn't expect to have all their votes counted tonight. It might take until Friday.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:08 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Guys I thought we weren't doing NYT needles anymore.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:08 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


ABC calls Virginia for Biden. Also says Warner (D) wins Senate.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:09 PM on November 3


538 just reported Nebraska 2nd giving Biden a commanding lead with not many more votes expected. That would be a flip.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:11 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Friends, I have to teach undergraduates about emotions tomorrow. Maybe I'll just put an NYT needle on the screen and we'll see what happens!
posted by iceberg273 at 9:12 PM on November 3 [20 favorites]


Stephanie Saul, NYT: "Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count."
posted by reductiondesign at 9:13 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Ok which_chick, that's about 600,000 uncounted mail-in votes. But Trump is up by 500,000 votes currently. Seems close
posted by medusa at 9:13 PM on November 3


NYT calls Ohio for Trump; Hawaii for Biden (so is Fox).
posted by reductiondesign at 9:14 PM on November 3


medusa: Philadelphia is only 44% reported. That's most of your 500,000 votes right there.
posted by SansPoint at 9:16 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


PBS (and thus AP) called MN for Biden
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:16 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Lee Drutman, 538: "From the department of democracy-literally-on-the-ballot, it looks like ranked-choice voting has lost in Massachusetts, the top-two open primary failed to get to the requisite 60 percent support in Florida, and independent redistricting has passed in Virginia."
posted by reductiondesign at 9:16 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Don't trust the needle! But I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about Hotlanta coming through for team blue. Fulton, DeKalb and Cobb have a lot of votes remaining and Trump is getting a severe beatdown in Fulton and DeKalb right now.

I have like zero trust of the state government in GA not fucking this up like they did against Abrams but what do locals seem to think about GA?
posted by vuron at 9:16 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Guardian calls Minnesota for Biden.

OK, then.
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:17 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Fox calls Iowa for Trump, Ernst (R) for re-election to the Senate.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:18 PM on November 3


I can't think of a less significant indicator than Australian gamblers—there's no reason they should have meaningful information

My comment was in response to the claim that a suggestion bookmakers had flipped their odds was bullshit. They did.

I'd also observe that betting agencies are global entities who have access to exactly the same information we do, and then some through the betting data stream and their own polling. They do have a stake in the outcome. They got hosed in the 2016 election, so they had a big stake. As for noise vs data - everybody's responding to noise. Do you really think polls are any different? People will say anything to a pollster. How'd that work out for everybody last time round?
posted by some little punk in a rocket at 9:19 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Whatever the stupid result of all this bullshit ends up being, I hope all of you are safe and alive tomorrow morning. There is a guaranteed 0.00% chance of a good political outcome if even a single one of you is not there to witness it.
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 9:19 PM on November 3 [30 favorites]


Stephanie Saul, NYT: "Atlanta won’t finish its count tonight. Election workers in Fulton County, who were counting absentee ballots, went home for the night. A water line break delayed the count."

Given the Trump campaign asking some very nosy questions about vote-counting logistics, I hope there's some tight security on all those uncounted ballots.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:20 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


It's a tight state. Pennsylvania's counting link (included) ALSO has a screen that shows the "in person votes reporting" and 61.3% of the in-person precincts have reported. The map for that, with colored counties (darker is more-complete) -- that shows that A LOT of the rural parts have completed their in-person totals while something like 37% of Philadelphia precincts have not reported in yet. Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks.. they're all less than half. (These are the Big Ticket counties and they are fairly democratic.)

There are roughly 2 million mail-in votes outstanding at the moment in the entire state of PA. Many of those will swing democratic.

It is not over yet in Pennsylania. It isn't.
posted by which_chick at 9:20 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


SansPoint thank you. Pennsylvania, get your fucking shit together.
posted by medusa at 9:20 PM on November 3


I never realized how deep the rot is in this country.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:20 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


Stop me if you've heard this one before: Young voters turning out less than expected.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:21 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


Current Electoral College calls.

Fox: Biden 227, Trump 210
NYT: Biden 213, Trump 136
ABC: Biden 205, Trump 136
posted by reductiondesign at 9:21 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Vuron - I drove by four fulton co polling sites today and they were dead. There were lines out the door during the early voting periods, and they were disproportionally Biden voters. I will be surprised and ecstatic if Ga goes blue, but I think that the number of outstanding ballots in Fulton and Dekalb bode well for Biden.
posted by Fritzle at 9:21 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


NYT calls Montana for Trump.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:23 PM on November 3


My comment was in response to the claim that a suggestion bookmakers had flipped their odds was bullshit. They did.

I know I put money on it. There should be really no debate the line changed. I mean we can get into arguments about who changed and by how much but I can confirm that the line change and Biden was +450 at one point.
posted by geoff. at 9:23 PM on November 3


Biden's going to appear on stage in about 10 minutes. He'll probably just tell people to stay hopeful and not despair. Nobody can declare anything else tonight.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:23 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


According to CNN MT only has 50% reporting thus far. The margins look way to tight to call to me, but what the hell do I know?
posted by Ignorantsavage at 9:25 PM on November 3


This 50 elections, each with their own rules, is bullshit. It's a national election; we should have national standards.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:26 PM on November 3 [31 favorites]


I have two things to say and I am going to separate them into two comments so you can decide which to favorite (if any, I do not presume your click).

First: Huge, huge thank you to advicepig and everyone else (MeFite and not) who do volunteer election work. Everyone in the country is in your debt.
posted by nickmark at 9:26 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


NYT follows Fox in calling Iowa for Trump. NYT calls New Mexico Senate for Luján (D).
posted by reductiondesign at 9:28 PM on November 3


Fox News has retracted their call for Biden in AZ.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:29 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Fox calls Minnesota for Biden.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:29 PM on November 3


I wouldn't put too much emphasis on Australian gambling.

They're probably driven by ridiculous multi-bets, like a multi on POTUS, tonight's State of Origin rugby league match, and who wins Married at First Sight.

If you bet a lazy pineapple on Trump, Queensland, and some woman who's not all blonde and plastic, you could retire on the payout.
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:29 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


NYT
22 minutes ago
Thomas Kaplan in Wilmington, Del.
A sign of confidence from Biden world: Rufus Gifford, one of his deputy campaign managers, tweeted shortly before midnight, “We’re going to win.”
posted by medusa at 9:31 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Fox News has retracted their call for Biden in AZ.
Fox calls Minnesota for Biden.


Clear as mud.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:31 PM on November 3


METAFILTER: I wouldn't put too much emphasis on Australian gambling.
posted by philip-random at 9:31 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Spoke with a PR/Marketing man 2 weeks ago. I asked him why is it so important for networks to be the first to make the projection/call.

His was response is that is similar to sweeps month. It dictates ad prices. It makes me wonder what the polling groups are in the game for. Shall I assume for a profit motive also?
posted by goalyeehah at 9:32 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


> Fox calls Minnesota for Biden.

More importantly, the Associated Press, an actual news organization, has called MN for Biden as well.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:32 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Did FOX explain their retraction on AZ? I don’t see any numbers shifting.
posted by darkstar at 9:32 PM on November 3


Did Fox retract the AZ call on air? The website still has it blue.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:32 PM on November 3


Thomas Fuller, NYT: "Oregon became the first state to decriminalize small amounts of cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and other drugs, and it also legalized psilocybin, known as magic mushrooms, for people 21 and older. In New Jersey and Arizona, voters decisively passed laws legalizing recreational marijuana."
posted by reductiondesign at 9:33 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]


> Did FOX explain their retraction on AZ? I don’t see any numbers shifting.

Daddy called.

2020 Election: Trump camp calls on Fox News to retract Arizona call for Biden

Fox does what Trump wants. Trump does what Fox wants.

It's a two person human centipede.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:34 PM on November 3 [25 favorites]


Fox News right now is talking about how Arizona will not be winnable. As in definitively not going to win Arizona, the stat guy is very adamant Trump can't win it.
posted by geoff. at 9:34 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Trump and McSally are apparently super whiny about Fox calling Arizona quickly even though it seems more less guaranteed at this point (Arizona is vast amounts of federal land with basically zero people).

So they probably got pressured to retract their earlier call but I think it's pretty safe.
posted by vuron at 9:35 PM on November 3


The count of votes shifted (towards center) in Arizona. That’s why Fox took it back.
posted by panaceanot at 9:35 PM on November 3


Looks like Montana is also gonna legalize weed.
posted by Grandysaur at 9:35 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Honestly, today went better than a lot of us expected it to. I know many were hoping for a landslide Democrat victory all the way down the ballot, but the way things are turning out is more or less what I thought was the most realistic scenario. I was also anticipating instances of violence and terrorism, and while a lot of scary things have happened, they've been at smaller scales than I expected and the day has gone by fairly peacefully.

Votes are still being counted, a Biden win is still likely and Republicans will still reject that. What happens after that really depends on how prepared state and institutional authorities are for it. It will take time to work through that but it is still possible. Be patient, take care of yourselves and don't fall for the red mirage.

Also, congrats to Oregon, New Jersey and Arizona.
posted by Lonnrot at 9:35 PM on November 3 [26 favorites]


It looks like WA has legally mandated comprehensive, scientifically accurate, sexual health education statewide. I will take that victory.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 9:36 PM on November 3 [34 favorites]


Nate Silver, 538: "A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet."
posted by reductiondesign at 9:37 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


MetaFilter: vast amounts of federal land with basically zero people.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:38 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Posting from Pennsylvania: It looks like Biden is ahead in Northampton county, which contains roughly half of the Lehigh Valley metropolitan area. That was a big Obama to Trump area in 2016. Looking at the map of showing percentages reporting, it looks like most of the heavily Trump rural areas in the center of the state are near 100 percent. Philly and Pittsburgh have yet to report most of their votes. According the New York times website Biden has a huge lead in absentee ballots, and most of those have yet to be counted or reported. In all, despite things looking grim at the moment, there is reason for optimism in PA.

I fervently hope things continue looking good in Arizona and Georgia. Those would represent important pickups and insurance against underperformance elsewhere.
posted by eagles123 at 9:38 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


I got the AZ info from this tweet, but apparently the original tweet they got their info from has been deleted.

And this is why I should not listen to Twitter.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:38 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


538
Nate Silver
Nov. 4, 12:34 am

A lot of states have been called on some networks and not on others. If you plug in all the states where any network has called the state for Biden or Trump, it shows Biden at 88 percent to win the Electoral College, Trump at 6 percent, and a 6 percent chance of a tie. But that depends on Biden winning Arizona and Minnesota, which ABC News hasn’t projected yet.

Jinx reductiondesign
posted by medusa at 9:38 PM on November 3


To be clear, the legislature passed a law in Washington regarding comprehensive sex education. And then some folks got the signatures to force a ballot vote by the people to “confirm” the work of the legislature.
posted by R343L at 9:38 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Mississippi's new flag is official.

Rick Rojas, NYT: "Mississippi voters on Tuesday approved a new state flag with a magnolia flower and red, yellow and blue stripes, replacing the one from 1894 that featured the Confederate battle emblem and was decommissioned by lawmakers in June."
posted by reductiondesign at 9:39 PM on November 3 [32 favorites]


Honestly, today went better than a lot of us expected it to.

Thanks, Lonnrot -- my thoughts precisely, though presented with more precision than I'm currently capable of.
posted by philip-random at 9:39 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


tonycpsu: "Fox does what Trump wants. Trump does what Fox wants.
It's a two person human centipede."


But in a closed loop. So more like a two person human centi-ouroboros
posted by Hairy Lobster at 9:39 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Yeah, lots of good ballot measures look to have passed in Oregon: drug possession decriminalization, a vape tax + higher cigarette taxes to help fund Medicaid, limited psilocybin mushroom medical legalization, and a constitutional amendment to allow campaign finance regulation.
posted by bassooner at 9:40 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


NYT echoes Fox, calls Florida for Trump and Ernst (R) for Senate, Iowa.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:40 PM on November 3


MetaFilter: vast amounts of federal land with basically zero people.

excuse me, that's Canada being described, not some hipster interwebs hangout.
posted by philip-random at 9:40 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


This 50 elections, each with their own rules, is bullshit. It's a national election; we should have national standards.

Yes. That has been true ever since the end of Reconstruction and almost undeniably true since Jim Crow.
posted by jaduncan at 9:41 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


New York Times calls Florida for Trump.
posted by matkline at 9:41 PM on November 3


It's bad enough knowing my deplorable relatives will never change, but they are hardly outliers in this country.

Anyway, I have no idea how my state, MI, will finally go for WH, just that the urban areas were behind reporting. As of right now, Peters is behind in the Senate race as are two wonderful suburban Detroit freshmen congresswoman, Stevens and Slotkin.

I'm a little confused re US Senate in general. Is our best hope that Biden scrapes out of win, but still has to deal with purple turtle?
posted by NorthernLite at 9:41 PM on November 3


Re: WA Sex Ed law. Yeap it was a BS thing to throw to a statewide vote but the opposition campaign was full of so much deceit that to see go through like this seems to be is heartening. If I have to eat those words later I will.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 9:42 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I don't expect results from Pennsylvania tonight; by law they accept mail in ballots postmarked by election day that are received up to 3 days after election day.

Don't let the Overton window shift on that, anyone who mailed their ballot in time to have it postmarked election day voted legally. If their ballots are not counted because of the need to have an answer on election night there are people who would become disenfranchised by the changing of the law after they cast their ballot.
posted by I paid money to offer this... insight? at 9:42 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


"Mississippi voters on Tuesday approved a new state flag with a magnolia flower and red, yellow and blue stripes"
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, possum should've won.
posted by Don Pepino at 9:42 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Joe Biden just came on stage to speak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ph8dqqlsKI
posted by miguelcervantes at 9:42 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


AZ is in Biden’s column, I’m comfortable with saying that. That’s 11 EVs flipped.

AZ also flipped a Senate seat (from McSally-R to Kelly-D).

AZ MAY be about to flip a US House seat (from Schweikert-R to Tiperneni-D)

AZ also legalized recreational marijuana (Prop 207)

AZ also looks like they’ll pass large tax increase for Education (Prop 208).

Looks like a good election from the Copper State!
posted by darkstar at 9:43 PM on November 3 [20 favorites]


ABC also calls Florida for Trump - this is "surprising" according to 538.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:43 PM on November 3


biden speaking now: thanks for your patience. we're doing well; feeling confident. it will take a while to count votes.
posted by 20 year lurk at 9:44 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


IIRC Senate is basically up to Collins and/or Tillis losing and nothing stupid like the MI senator losing.

it's going to be extremely tight either way but fortunately the 2022 map sucks for the Turtle
posted by vuron at 9:44 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Per NYT Trump is ahead by 300k votes in Georgia with 900k votes outstanding. Do we really think the uncounted votes could break that hard for Biden?
posted by medusa at 9:44 PM on November 3


Second, (and screw you, iPad copy-paste) in re these comments:

Is it too early to switch to gin?

Mefimail me you[r] address I’ll send you a case if we win tonight

Schrödinger’s election


Look, I know I said above that I was unquitting drinking just for tonight, but I am typing this as Joe gives his “be patient” speech, and I am telling you: Whenever it is, whatever the outcome, I will drink Schrödinger’s gin when the time is right.
posted by nickmark at 9:45 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Just to report: am safe, am alive, intend to remain that way. Did not end up calling the hotline (cried on my husband’s shoulder instead), and nothing is really resolved, but I’m still here. Hotline is still an option — programming it into my phone. I think I might actually try to find an actual therapist, although that seems pretty overwhelming. I bet, though, that my husband will be willing to help me sort through therapist-finder websites and narrow it down to a top-three list. He has fallen mercifully asleep, and I will let him be, but will ask him tomorrow.
posted by snowmentality at 9:45 PM on November 3 [107 favorites]


Fox and Trump are a Klein bottle with a shared digestive tract. (Never forget we are nerds here)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:45 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


Biden: "It ain't over until every vote is counted."

Thanks for giving me something hopeful to sleep on tonight, Joe.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:45 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Hugs, snowmentality.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:46 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


538 reports AP calls Miinesota for Biden.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:47 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Biden paraphrased: "It's gonna be alright, now everybody go to sleep."
posted by Kevin Street at 9:47 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Here we go...

@realDonaldTrump: "We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!"
posted by reductiondesign at 9:47 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


snowmentality thanks for updating.
posted by medusa at 9:48 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


snowmentality, your husband loves you and we do too. And we will all be here for whatever you need.
posted by nickmark at 9:48 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Considering where those votes are located (Cobb, Dekalb and Fulton) yes I think Biden could in theory catch Trump or at least make the Republican sweat.

Keep in mind GA is a stretch goal and a potential replacement for losing PA or Michigan. With AZ and NE-2 going blue (most likely) Trump has to hold NC and GA and absolutely has to win two of the MI, WI, PA states. Those are looking like daunting tasks even with them currently pink in color.
posted by vuron at 9:49 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


snowmentality: We'll all get through this. You are a valuable person and the world is a better place with you in it.
posted by reenum at 9:49 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


Biden just gave a brief, direct speech to a bunch of cars about being patient and waiting for a full count. The cars' spirits seem a little higher now, the honking more determined.

snowmentality, thank you for checking in again. Hang in there. I know others have offered as well, but add me to the list of those you can talk to, if you need to. I know how you feel, but if it's any consolation for tonight - I have been pouring over the worst-case scenarios all year and I am actually feeling a little bit less uneasy about where things stand right now.
posted by Lonnrot at 9:49 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The Polish in America close for business and the voting no longer happens? Don's world sure is weird.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 9:49 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


2020 Election: Trump camp calls on Fox News to retract Arizona call for Biden

Fox does what Trump wants. Trump does what Fox wants.


I take it that the John McCain connection is why, of all the states already called for Biden, AZ was the one that Trump had a snit-fit over it being called.
posted by gtrwolf at 9:49 PM on November 3


Pretty astonished by those Wisconsin and Michigan numbers. I know they still need to count a lot of votes but it's like ... whatever the democrats are doing, it clearly isn't working
posted by moorooka at 9:50 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Hugs, snowmentality. Reach out if you need to - to your husband, the hotline, friends, spiritual advisors, counsellors, Mefites, whomever. You don’t have to face this alone.
posted by nubs at 9:51 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Milwaukee has 169,000 absentee ballots expected around 4am.

Watch the count live!

Current statewide count is Biden down by 126,218. In conclusion, no one knows!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 9:51 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


also: i read that district residents have approved initiative 81 - the entheogenic plant and fungus policy act of 2020 - decriminalizing psilocybin (& ibogaine, dmt, mescaline... in plants). n.b.: not legalizing it.
posted by 20 year lurk at 9:51 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!
But what about the polls?
posted by Mitheral at 9:52 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


It is what Dems have stopped doing. The failure to seriously engage in rural interests as a party has long been a bee in my bonnet. I have long blamed the New Democrats for looking at the ball and walking away so they could focus on middle class professionals. They need to do more than one thing.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 9:53 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


NYT: "Why did the Needle turn blue in Georgia? We got enough vote out of the Atlanta area to realize it was going to be really good for Biden. And there's a ton of vote left there."
posted by oulipian at 9:53 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Trump on Twitter: We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!

umm. . . north and south poles? Or maybe the clue was capitalizing the word. The Polish people are going to close.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:54 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Why can't they just keep counting votes 24/7? I mean come on I get people have lives but we knew this would be a thing.
posted by geoff. at 9:54 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


I take it that the John McCain connection is why, of all the states already called for Biden, AZ was the one that Trump had a snit-fit over it being called.
posted by gtrwolf at 0:49 on 11/4


I think this was the first state to flip from the 2016 map, if the map changes it hurts his reelection chances.
posted by I paid money to offer this... insight? at 9:54 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!

You know who else wanted to close the Poles?
posted by pee tape at 9:55 PM on November 3 [41 favorites]


ABC falls in line, calls Iowa for Trump and Ernst (R).
posted by reductiondesign at 9:55 PM on November 3


I am so tired of this man and his incompetent typos.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:56 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


I'm often very critical of Democrats on here because I am pretty far left, which probably under-communicates the amount that I really, really want Biden (or any Democrat) to win. I have to say, overall, I'm cautiously optimistic, and I share the sentiment of Biden's statement. I doubt i'm gonna get much sleep tonight, though.
posted by eagles123 at 9:57 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The states are flipping red, but the popular vote favors Biden 213 : 174.

Last time Hillary also had the popular vote, right? Hm.
posted by polymodus at 9:57 PM on November 3


Why can't they just keep counting votes 24/7?

There isn't an unlimited pool of poll workers. There wasn't before covid and there certainly isn't one now.
posted by StarkRoads at 9:57 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Honestly I don't think I want to hear Trump speak, unless he pops a blood vessel on stage. But that won't happen, he'll just lie about stuff.
posted by Kevin Street at 9:58 PM on November 3


AP: "Republican Greg Gianforte wins election for governor in Montana."
posted by reductiondesign at 9:58 PM on November 3


538
Nathaniel Rakich
Nov. 4, 12:51 am

Here’s a bullish sign for Biden in Pennsylvania. I wouldn’t be surprised if rural counties wind up with margins similar to the ones they posted in 2016, but urban and suburban ones (like Dauphin) lurch leftward.

In Dauphin Co., Pa. (Harrisburg), almost all votes are counted and Biden leads, 53-45. In 2016, Clinton won it 49-46.

— Louis Jacobson (@loujacobson) November 4, 2020
posted by medusa at 9:59 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Nate Cohn, NYT: "Another reason the Needle has Biden edging ahead in Georgia: For a while, it was taking cues from trends in N.C. and Florida. Now we've seen enough vote in the Atlanta area."
posted by reductiondesign at 10:00 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


getting woozy but in for the long haul. long live the thread.
posted by vrakatar at 10:01 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


If Georgia saves us all I will... I don't know, but I didn't have it on my bingo card.
posted by Justinian at 10:01 PM on November 3 [19 favorites]


Sorry, not popular vote but electoral vote count.
posted by polymodus at 10:01 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Nate Silver, 538: "Decision Desk HQ has more of Maine reported than other sources, and they show Biden with a bigger lead there (+10) and also Gideon a little closer (-5.6)."
posted by reductiondesign at 10:01 PM on November 3


1 AM EST:
Florida is the state that has been called opposite the 538 average prediction.
Arizona and Nebraska 2 are the first state(s) to flip relative to 2016.
The rest of what has been called is not remarkably different than pre-vote predictions. It is frustratingly close, regardless of the outcome.
Overall, we mostly know what we expected to know, and don't know what we expected not to know tonight.
posted by meinvt at 10:01 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


This is why the NYT needle is absurd - it's nothing but a mood ring for Nate Cohn.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:02 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


I want a six-foot trench dug around the entire base. Fill it with gasoline.
posted by Capt. Renault at 10:02 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


Why can't they just keep counting votes 24/7? I mean come on I get people have lives but we knew this would be a thing.

If nothing else poll workers have probably already been awake for at least 18-19 hours. They'll A) make mistakes and B) be a hazard to others when they drive home if they are awake longer (honestly they are already at least one beer impaired already). Plus consideration for meals would have to be made. And here anyways a disproportionate number of poll workers are 65+ and probably unused to all nighters.
posted by Mitheral at 10:02 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


The sun'll come out tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on 'til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow, tomorrow!
I love ya tomorrow!
You're only a day away!

posted by kirkaracha at 10:02 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


I only came into this thread a few minutes ago but just want to say how grateful I am for all of you being here. This is hard and you all are helping, thank you.
posted by helpthebear at 10:03 PM on November 3 [22 favorites]


I am so tired of this man and his incompetent typos.

Giving him too much credit.

He can't spell, simple as that. Guy's a moran.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:03 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


I want a six-foot trench dug around the entire base. Fill it with gasoline.

I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:03 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Twitter has flagged Trump's "they are trying to STEAL the Election" tweet as misleading.
posted by oulipian at 10:04 PM on November 3 [40 favorites]


If Georgia saves us all I will... I don't know, but I didn't have it on my bingo card.

You know what you need to do.

Cake.
posted by medusa at 10:05 PM on November 3 [15 favorites]


NYT calls Minnesota for Biden.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:05 PM on November 3


oulipian: "Twitter has flagged Trump's "they are trying to STEAL the Election" tweet as misleading."

It must be that "trying"
posted by chavenet at 10:05 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Emily Cochrane (NYT) in Bangor, Maine: "Sara Gideon’s team has told reporters she will not be making a speech tonight. Instead, the campaign said in a statement, 'It’s clear the race will not be called tonight.'"
posted by reductiondesign at 10:06 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Can we finally put a stake in the heart of the phrase, "Hispanic voter,"? There are too many demographic differences in differing groups described as Hispanic for the term to be informative. Please media-types, stop using that as if it were useful or informative in regards to voting behavior.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 10:06 PM on November 3 [40 favorites]


It is what Dems have stopped doing. The failure to seriously engage in rural interests as a party has long been a bee in my bonnet.

Is someone born and raised in rural areas, I’m not convinced there’s much Democrats could do to sway the typical rural voter short of becoming indistinguishable from Republicans.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 10:07 PM on November 3 [25 favorites]


Came to say what oulipian did. The typo is corrected, though.
As an Elsewherian, wishing you all the very best. Keep holding on.
posted by Nieshka at 10:07 PM on November 3


Progressive populism would be a good start.
posted by Lord_Pall at 10:08 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Peach Cobbler would be much more appropriate as a celebration of GA going Blue than cake if we are being honest.
posted by vuron at 10:09 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Oregon ... legalized psilocybin"

To be clear, psilocybin is only to be used in duly licensed facilities.

Similarly, do not say "marijuana is legal in Oregon". The *state* of Oregon does not forbid the possession of small amounts of marijuana or its use *in private*. It remains entirely against federal law everywhere.
posted by neuron at 10:10 PM on November 3


I think that actual engagement with farming issues, serious effort at economic support for retooling rust belt towns, and hell right to repair legislation would be a huge step. There are steps a efforts to be made. They may take years to yield results but this is the long game and breaking the Koch conditioning is going to take awhile but without that effort we get this mishiagas.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 10:12 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


I’ll pop this here for anyone it might help.

When I was about to give birth to my son a few months ago I was sick with anxiety and fear for reasons I’m not going to get into. But I kept thinking there’s a future me a week or a month or a year away that is through this. That future me is not plagued by uncertainty, they know what happened and they’re looking back at how things played out. I liked to think that future me was sending strength and love to present me. Sometimes now, present me in fact does send strength and love back towards past me.

Your future selves know what happened. The you of a week or a month from now knows, and has already started to plan your next moves. I hope strength and love are rippling up and down the timeline between yourselves.

Be safe, be kind especially to yourself, and always always - fuck these fucking nazis.
posted by supercrayon at 10:14 PM on November 3 [91 favorites]


Detail from the NYT on Fox's Arizona call:

Trump officials publicly criticized Fox News for its call of Arizona for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., calling the network a “complete outlier” and warning that “other media outlets should not follow suit.” But the network — whose conservative prime-time stars are beloved by the president — stood by its call.

The skirmish started as Jason Miller, the Trump campaign’s chief strategist, said on Twitter that there were still more than one million votes waiting to be counted in Arizona and that Fox News was trying to “invalidate their votes.” A second campaign official also accused Fox News of combining exit polling with results and called the decision to call the race for Mr. Biden — which would represent the first flip of the night — “insane.” The network is the only major news outlet to call Arizona so far.

But far from caving to the public and behind-the-scenes pressure from the campaign, the Fox News decision desk, which is highly respected in the world of political polling, doubled down on its early call. Arnon Mishkin, the leader of the desk, appeared on Fox News shortly after 12:30 a.m. and said the Trump campaign’s insistence that it would pick up enough votes to secure a win was wrong.

“That’s not true,” Mr. Mishkin said. “I’m sorry, the president is not going to be able to take over and win enough votes.”

He added: “We’re not wrong in this particular case.”

With almost 80 percent of the Arizona vote counted late Tuesday, Mr. Biden was leading Mr. Trump by more than six percentage points.

Mr. Mishkin faced skepticism from some pro-Trump Fox News colleagues, as well. The conservative pundit Katie Pavlich, a native Arizonan, told viewers she was doubtful about the network’s call, and the host Tucker Carlson said on-air that Trump officials were deeply skeptical that Mr. Biden had won the state.

In 2012, Mr. Mishkin appeared on-air to explain to Fox News viewers why he had called Ohio for Barack Obama, a projection that one of the network’s analysts, Karl Rove, had doubted. Mr. Obama ultimately won the state.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:15 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


The Trump campaign is out there tweeting about a coup happening in PA, so I'm suddenly feeling pretty good about PA.
posted by triggerfinger at 10:15 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


ABC calls Rhode Island for Biden.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:15 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Election coverage 3d map graphics that reflect very little have me going Shatner:
Hundreds of lights, blinking, and beeping, and flashing and beeping, I CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!!
posted by bartleby at 10:15 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I will seriously learn how to, and then bake, a peach cobbler, from scratch, if my birth state GA goes for Biden like my home state (since 1981) AZ.

Lawd I’m prayin.
posted by darkstar at 10:16 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


It remains entirely against federal law everywhere..

Like a third of the billboards in my part of Orange County are for cannabis delivery places, a major cannabis logistical player has giant new buildings down the road in Irvine, and until right now I had actually forgotten that technically it was illegal at the Federal level. So, from here in SoCal, I can tell you that "against federal law" doesn't mean much these days.
posted by sideshow at 10:17 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


That future me is not plagued by uncertainty, they know what happened and they’re looking back at how things played out.

Reading that while literally watching Dark on netflix right now, woof
posted by weed donkey at 10:17 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


@tripgabriel via 538: "Based on a drop of 13,121 mail ballots in Erie County, PA showing Biden winning them 5:1, it looks like he will win back this swing county that Trump carried. There are abut 37k mail ballots still to be counted in coming days. Dems believe Biden wins them 3 or 4 to 1."
posted by reductiondesign at 10:18 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


But I'm pretty terrified about the GOP keeping the Senate, which would be about as close to a worst case scenario as you can get, short of Biden losing. Has anyone seen anything encouraging about the Senate?
posted by triggerfinger at 10:18 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


ABC calls Texas for Trump.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:18 PM on November 3


actual engagement with farming issues, serious effort at economic support for retooling rust belt towns, and hell right to repair legislation would be a huge step

Farmers (who own the land they farm) represent about 1% of the US population. Farming is not an issue for most rural Americans. Living in food deserts where the largest employers in a 20-mile radius are Walmart and Dollar General, opiate and methamphetamine addiction, and the ongoing slow death of small towns as younger people who can manage it move away and don't come back are issues for rural Americans.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 10:20 PM on November 3 [28 favorites]


So Trump wants to have all the votes counted in AZ, where’s he behind, but counting every vote in other states is cheating and stealing. Color me surprised.
posted by JenMarie at 10:20 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


AP has called the MN Senate race for Tina Smith!

*HUGE sigh of relief*
posted by triggerfinger at 10:21 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Senate is not looking good, Dems would have to win both in Maine and North Carolina. Not likely.
posted by medusa at 10:21 PM on November 3


As I suspect many of us are in quite a funk, thank you lonnrot for the hilarious bit about Biden talking to the cars, and to supecrayon for the sweet imagery about our future self having gotten through this. (And I hope you & bebe are well.)
posted by NorthernLite at 10:21 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Still too early to know anything about the Senate. If the Democrats do take it the margin will be thin, and it could still go Republican.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:22 PM on November 3


NYT also calls Minnesota Senate for Smith (D), and Texas for Trump.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:23 PM on November 3


Can we finally put a stake in the heart of the phrase, "Hispanic voter,"? There are too many demographic differences in differing groups described as Hispanic for the term to be informative.

There’s a huge gender difference this year. Men are voting their machismo over their interests. It’s really upsetting and nerve wracking.
posted by corb at 10:23 PM on November 3 [19 favorites]


Oh, and by the way about Trump's tweet. Counting votes after the polls (sic) close is literally the way the process works.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:23 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


ABC calls Montana for Trump.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:23 PM on November 3


HRC and the party offered a lot to rural Americans in ‘16 and they didn’t hear it or didn’t care. Biden’s offered about the same. They don’t want it. They want Trump.

Eventually you move on and find a way to win without them.
posted by notyou at 10:24 PM on November 3 [27 favorites]


The only issue for the rural America I grew up in is hate. They hate gays, liberals, anyone brown, but also very much people from the coasts. You cannot reach them, they’re not misinformed. They are deliberately evil.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:24 PM on November 3 [44 favorites]


Fox calls Nebraska 2nd for Biden, per 538.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:24 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


I was in a funk, but then I remembered I had lorazepam. I'm feeling much more even-keeled now. My worries haven't vanished, but the electrostatic shocks they've been giving me all night have faded.
posted by invincible summer at 10:25 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I am loving these early calls from Fox against Trump.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:27 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Nate Silver, 538: "So to summarize a bit, Biden basically has three 'easy' paths to victory remaining. In rough order of likelihood: 1) Win Arizona and NE-02, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 2) Win Pennsylvania, hold Michigan and Wisconsin; 3) Win Georgia, hold Michigan and Wisconsin."
posted by reductiondesign at 10:28 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


I took some Xanax, single malt and rye. I calm as calm but I haven't a clue what's going on.
posted by firstdrop at 10:28 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If Biden wins Arizona then maybe just Pennsylvania and Michigan.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:28 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Based on this analysis from DailyKos I think Biden wins Pennsylvania.

2M mail votes left to count in PA. Here is how they break down on party reg:

66% Dem, 23% Rep, 11% NP#Election2020
— Mindy “Please Vote” Finn (@mindyfinn) November 4, 2020

Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 · 9:53:53 PM Mountain Standard Time · Mark Sumner

Before you break out the calculator, those mail-in ballots would represent a net 860,000 gain for Biden in Pennsylvania, assuming the independents split evenly.
Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 · 9:55:20 PM Mountain Standard Time · Mark Sumner
posted by medusa at 10:30 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Can someone explain why Foxnews.com, in the same headline, calls Georgia, "Ga.", Pennsylvania "Pa.", North Carolina "NC" and Michigan "Mich."?
posted by matkline at 10:31 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


What we appear to be seeing is people voting their values rather than for policy. If you look at ballot initiatives Democratic positions are winning easily but you have x % of predominantly non-college educated males that have fallen hook line and sinker for Trump and continue to double down on him despite ample proof that he's a charlatan. And for whatever reason Republicans tend to win on economic issues despite most empirical evidence showing that the opposite is accurate.

In the end I'm not sure how to bridge the divide since most Trump supporters exist within a completely different information environment and have an almost kneejerk aversion to any contradictory data points being accepted.
posted by vuron at 10:31 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Can someone explain why Foxnews.com, in the same headline, calls Georgia, "Ga.", Pennsylvania "Pa.", North Carolina "NC" and Michigan "Mich."?

Because whoever is writing the headlines is 80 years old and learned to abbreviate states before the introduction of ZIP codes and standard two-letter abbreviations?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 10:33 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Michigan MI is confused with Minnesota, MN, Mississippi MS, and Missouri MO.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:34 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Re: Rural voters. I understand that farmers are not a majority of rural voters. I am talking about the engagement and what might cynically be called the political theater that these things represent. The deeper social issue do need to be addressed but they involve a level of involvement a the state level that the Dems will not be able to provide to start with.

You can not ignore rural states if you want the Senate. We can call for increased democracy but the framework of the Constitution is not just going to change. That takes amendments and those require States whose voters, at this time, would not support them. This is, as I said before, about the long game. Taking our toys and screaming about the majority of the nation's voters means bupkis with our Federal system.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 10:34 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Can someone explain why Foxnews.com, in the same headline, calls Georgia, "Ga.", Pennsylvania "Pa.", North Carolina "NC" and Michigan "Mich."?

We've already had at least one person in this thread use MA instead of ME for Maine, there's too many M states and the abbreviations are too close.
posted by davros42 at 10:34 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


CNN says Trump to make statement shortly
posted by chavenet at 10:36 PM on November 3


Here we go...

@realDonaldTrump: "We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Poles are closed!"


Almost an hour earlier I wrote:

2. Do you think the Tangerine Man spun stories about the three million votes margin for Clinton being from dubious sources? Wait until the tweet saying, “Even the failing New York Times says I won,” and fantasizing about how the mail-in ballots are being filled in days after the election was decided so they can be counted.

My biggest failure of prognostication was not foreseeing that the very stable genius would be defeated by spelling a one-syllable word.

Perhaps my standards are too high.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 10:37 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


The wheel of cheese is somewhat depleted.
posted by Wordshore at 10:37 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


"Oregon ... legalized psilocybin"

To be clear, psilocybin is only to be used in duly licensed facilities.


Can't wait to see these facilities
posted by Flashman at 10:38 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


wow that's my signal to go to bed. I don't want to obsess over what he says.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:38 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


So, Biden flips Arizona and NE-2. Trump holds on to Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. CNN just called Texas for Trump.

Assuming Georgia and NC stay in his column, it looks like it's going to come down to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Whoever gets two of those three will win.

In the Senate races, Jones (AL), Hegar (TX), Harrison (SC), Greenfield (IA), McGrath (KY), Bollier (KS) all fell short. Existing seats plus called seats give Dems 47, so they need three (plus VP) for bare control. Seven uncalled races: Maine, NC, both Georgia seats, Michigan, Montana, and Alaska. All are currently R-leaning but with significant uncounted votes.

Personally, I'm feeling pretty gutted. The most likely scenario is a narrow Biden win with at best a 50-50 Senate + VP tiebreaker. The former isn't enough to decisively repudiate Trumpism or give Biden a mandate, the latter isn't enough to secure basic progressive litmus tests like nixing the filibuster, adding states, or reforming the Supreme Court. No real defense against a 6-3 Court. Even progressive cabinet members or substantive COVID relief would be a tough sell. The 2022 midterms aren't great for Republicans, but a lack of accomplishments would likely mean losing the Senate and possibly the House if the usual backlash is bad enough.

More gravely, if after the last four chaotic, scandalous, disastrous years, a popular moderate Dem and former VP with everyone from Bernie and AOC to moderate Republicans behind him can barely eke out a win against such a divisive president -- and multiple rising star Senate candidates with unprecedented fundraising fail to dislodge unpopular GOP incumbents -- what happens in four years once Republicans find an even marginally less offensive and more competent standard-bearer?
posted by Rhaomi at 10:38 PM on November 3 [42 favorites]


I understand that farmers are not a majority of rural voters

Farmers are not even a substantial minority of rural voters. The number of "farm operators" in Iowa is only about 4.3% of the total population.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 10:38 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


ABC calls Minnesota for Biden.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:38 PM on November 3


Can someone explain why Foxnews.com, in the same headline, calls Georgia, "Ga.", Pennsylvania "Pa.", North Carolina "NC" and Michigan "Mich."?

Those are the standard state abbreviations in Associated Press style, except N.C. should have periods. (The two-letter uppercase state abbreviations are for mailing addresses.) There's lots about Fox News to complain about, but those abbreviations are okay.
posted by lisa g at 10:38 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


They don’t want it. They want Trump.

It's one thing that really annoys me about political discourse: the idea that parties are playing a game and voters are just pieces on a board. Politics isn't deterministic. It may be true that the Democrats played this poorly but it doesn't follow that if they'd played it right, they'll win.

People (men, in particular) can be emotional and fuckin' stupid but they have agency and if they want to shoot themselves in the face to make a point -- even if they have no idea what point they're actually making -- they'll do it.
posted by klanawa at 10:39 PM on November 3 [17 favorites]


So, uh, America? Uh. What’cha doin’? What’s uh, what’s going on here? It looks like - it doesn’t look good here. Uh. Is there a family member we can call for you? Or something?

We’re concerned
posted by From Bklyn at 10:39 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Milwaukee might get its count in a little earlier than previously thought. "Milwaukee County Clerk George Christenson just announced Milwaukee Central count has processed 140,000 absentee ballots with about 30,000 left to go. The estimated completion time is now 3 AM."
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 10:40 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


> Seven uncalled races: ... both Georgia seats

At least one is going to a runoff.
posted by reductiondesign at 10:40 PM on November 3


We've already had at least one person in this thread use MA instead of ME for Maine, there's too many M states and the abbreviations are too close.
posted by davros42 at 1:34 on 11/4


I don't think that's true, who can't tell MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS and MT apart?
If anything we need more M states, there's 18 letters left!
posted by I paid money to offer this... insight? at 10:41 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


PACK THE M STATES
posted by Pickman's Next Top Model at 10:42 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


Here's hoping we can get Washington, MC
posted by miguelcervantes at 10:43 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


PACK THE M STATES - Pickman's Next Top Model
Isn't that an issue for String Theorists?
posted by Ignorantsavage at 10:44 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


>can barely eke out a win against such a divisive president

WHOSE PATENT INCOMPETENCE AND SCHEMING JUST GOT 230,000 AMERICANS KILLED (AND COUNTING)

the Fox bubble must be a very nice place to inhabit
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:44 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


The runoff seats election will be after SCOTUS lands its final blow on Obamacare, which will not be popular. Will this give the dem a better chance?
posted by triggerfinger at 10:46 PM on November 3


the Fox bubble must be a very nice place to inhabit

It's not. It's really not.
posted by dragstroke at 10:46 PM on November 3


More gravely, if after the last four chaotic, scandalous, disastrous years, a popular moderate Dem and former VP with everyone from Bernie and AOC to moderate Republicans behind him can barely eke out a win against such a divisive president -- and multiple rising star Senate candidates with unprecedented fundraising fail to dislodge unpopular GOP incumbents -- what happens in four years once Republicans find an even marginally less offensive and more competent standard-bearer?

Progressives build upon the gains made here. Margins were tighter in states that would never have been conceivable as tossups before. And BECAUSE they were tossups, people in those states were exposed to issues, ideas, and arguments (granted, often reduced into soundbites for ads) that they just weren't seeing as being connected to their states or districts before. Changing minds about the relative importance or application of fundamental values takes more than 2-4 years.
posted by pykrete jungle at 10:46 PM on November 3 [20 favorites]


I recognize that Biden still has a pretty decent chance of winning the presidency, but the odds of democrats controlling the senate seem pretty minimal now. This is pretty depressing - much of the anticipation before this election hinged on the dems also winning the senate (and therefore being able to make some serious reforms). I'm quite worried about the prospects of a stagnant two years at least with a republican senate led again by Mitch.
posted by unid41 at 10:47 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Georgia just reported a bunch of votes... Trump only about 2 points ahead now.
posted by Chickenring at 10:50 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


a popular moderate Dem and former VP with everyone from Bernie and AOC to moderate Republicans behind him can barely eke out a win

that's...not how I'd characterize how the leftist faction of the party saw Biden
posted by davedave at 10:50 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Biden finally takes the lead in Nevada. So that’s one Trump hoped to flip red that won’t.
posted by darkstar at 10:51 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


GA just tightened up a lot. Trump still ahead by 2% (120k margin) with 91% in.
posted by darkstar at 10:52 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


So you’re suggesting the leftist portion just sat this one out because four more years of fascism won’t be so bad?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:52 PM on November 3


Nevada would be a nice pick up. Apparently Trump has done all he can do now, so the story has shifted to how much Biden can still gain.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:52 PM on November 3


Woot! I just got my Favorites reset. Favorites for everybody!

Er...no I didn’t. Awww...
posted by darkstar at 10:56 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]



So you’re suggesting the leftist portion just sat this one out because four more years of fascism won’t be so bad?


I have a friend who is dating a socialist guy, and she is pretty far-left leaning herself. That IS DEFINITELY what some of these people are doing. She and he feel that Biden and Trump are two sides of the same coin, and also that Biden is a rapist. Her boyfriend was voting third party (in New York so whatever) and she was holding her nose and voting Biden. Likewise, voter apathy continues to run rampant across other parts of the country. USA is and always will be mostly a big, dumb country.
posted by Chickenring at 10:57 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


On the left sitting out argument, I'm skeptical. First off, I don't blame the candidates by any means - Bernie has been all-in for Biden for many months. Similar for AOC and other big players. I've been volunteering with Bernie's campaign texting and phone banking for Biden, and in my experience (tens of thousands of contacts with mostly Bernie supporters), the vast majority of Bernie's primary supporters went for Biden. Sure, about 50% of those people said they weren't happy about it, but they were going for Biden due to Trump's awfulness.
posted by unid41 at 10:57 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Yeah in Georgia the gap is only about 100k votes with about 400k left to count. Biden winning is possible. Wow.
posted by medusa at 10:59 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


who can't tell MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS and MT apart?

If you arrange them correctly, their final letters spell SEDATION.
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:00 PM on November 3 [23 favorites]


mmmmmmmm, sedation
posted by weed donkey at 11:01 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


I wanna be sedated.
posted by Marticus at 11:03 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


I’m starting to feel better about GA than about PA. The margins of the outstanding votes in those counties around Atlanta could realistically flip the state.
posted by darkstar at 11:03 PM on November 3


Holy shit, DeKalb and Fulton counties are currently Biden +67 and +46, respectively.
posted by medusa at 11:04 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


There are many people who make the mistake of confusing the politically tactical act of voting for a candidate with an absolute moral stance. This is politically naive but morally satisfying. My own House Rep. is not someone I care for all that much. I live in a swing district so voting for someone who is further left becomes less useful in pushing the actual ball towards the goals I support. Convincing moral absolutists that politics is often a game of degrees rather than revolutions is painfully difficult.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 11:04 PM on November 3 [35 favorites]


She and he feel that Biden and Trump are two sides of the same coin

I'm aware of several Twitter/Breadtube-type socialists who are refusing to vote on principle against anyone who supports neoliberal hegemony, which... fair enough. If philosophical or doctrinal purity is more important than practicality, fine. Not my position, but it's absolutely out there.

But I'll note that as a foreigner myself, people outside the US have no reason to think that America's internecine squabbles will lead to any material, on-the-ground differences. Y'all treat the rest of the world like a truck stop toilet, no matter who is in office. When people notice a real change, they'll start acknowledging that there's a real difference.
posted by klanawa at 11:05 PM on November 3 [9 favorites]


Since it was said let just leave this here [SLYT].
posted by Ignorantsavage at 11:05 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Is there any reporting on the popular vote right now? I don't see it shown on the nytimes page.
posted by polymodus at 11:05 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Convincing moral absolutists that politics is often a game of degrees rather than revolutions is painfully difficult.

as my doctor recently put it (she's cool and good) -- "Voting is a chess move. Real democracy happens elsewhere."
posted by philip-random at 11:06 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


ABC's current popular vote count: Biden 64,497,685 votes, Trump 63,067,809 votes.
posted by reductiondesign at 11:06 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


polymodus, here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html

biden 64,794,204 votes (49.7%)
trump 63,321,740 votes (48.6%)
posted by Kybard at 11:07 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Popular vote is practically a tie. NYT and WaPo both say it's about 50% Biden 49% Trump.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:07 PM on November 3


amazing. sixty-three million (and counting) people looked at the last four years of this grease fire and said YEP SIGN ME UP FOR MORE OF THIS PLEASE. fuckin' incredibile.
posted by Old Kentucky Shark at 11:08 PM on November 3 [96 favorites]


Sleep well, all. Thank you for the sanity tonight.
posted by bcd at 11:09 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


Also, Nebraska just voted to remove slavery as a punishment (yay), but over 150,000 people voted against it, meaning that over 150k Nebraskans would like to keep slavery as a punishment.
posted by triggerfinger at 11:11 PM on November 3 [23 favorites]


Most MeFites see it as a grease fire (or something similar) but a lot of folks got what they wanted. Tough talk, check. Right wing judges, check. Liberal tears, check. Regulation rollbacks, check. White White House Administration, check. Conspiracy shout outs, check.

We may call it a grease fire, some see it as the light at the end of the tunnel.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 11:11 PM on November 3 [24 favorites]



I think that actual engagement with farming issues


Don’t get me started on farming issues. I used to work with a high-ranking leader in the state Farm Bureau. I remember one time we were driving somewhere together, and she spent the entire 45 minutes ranting and raving about what an atrocity it was that she was being forced to paint the water and fuel tanks on her farm different colors for safety. I mean, yelling and hand waving to the point where I didn’t feel safe on the road with her. Name a rule meant to protect lives over saving a nickel here or there, and I’ve had a farming neighbor go apoplectic over it. All while happily benefiting from taxpayer subsidies.

Speaking of nickels, if I had one for every rural factory worker I’ve known who was rabidly anti-union despite owing unions for their standard of living, I could probably buy my own damn farm. Even after their hero Reagan put the nail in the coffin of American unionism.

They support the right wing because the right wing gives them what they want, and screw everybody else.

Obviously not every rural voter fits into this category, but enough do that I can’t blame Democratic politicians at the national level too awful much for not knocking themselves out for a well they know is going to come up dry.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 11:12 PM on November 3 [37 favorites]


California is only at 68% counted right now. Popular vote won't be close after they are finished.
posted by vuron at 11:12 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Going to bed now. See y'all at 3 a.m. when I wake up in a panic, I'm sure.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:12 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


As an outsider, completely astounded that almost 50% think Trump is anything other than an incompetent, incoherent clusterfuck.

Just on covid alone, he should be hung out in a public square like Mussolini.

Do Americans not get news about other countries? In recent days Australia has had zero new covid cases. Or when not zero, it's like one to three cases. The other day we had 19 people in hospital and none of those were in the ICU.

New Zealand is going brilliantly.

And we're living our lives largely normally, although the economy has taken a hit and big public events like concerts are out, although you can still go to sports where stadiums are allowed to be about 25% full. Restaurants and bars are open.

Meanwhile Trump's campaigning on "There'll be a vaccine in like a month" and there are nearly 100,000 new daily cases.

The mind boggles.
posted by UbuRoivas at 11:12 PM on November 3 [55 favorites]


So what are the odds that Trump will declare victory tonight? He obviously shouldn't, but we're at the point where he might try it.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:15 PM on November 3


Do Americans not get news about other countries?

Mostly, nope. Have you ever seen that New Yorker cover, A View of the World From Ninth Avenue? A lot of Americans' view of the rest of the world is like that, only it might as well say "Here Be Monsters" off at the horizon.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 11:16 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


1
posted by Marticus at 11:17 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Trump will want to project strength but he's likely going to lose GA in the next couple of hours so he'd be really stupid to claim victory too soon unless he can basically guarantee that PA, MI and WI won't count mail-in ballots
posted by vuron at 11:18 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


USA population is oh about 300 million more people than Australia, and our population density is like 94 per mi 2, versus Australia's 8 per mi 2... Soooo.. yeah, we have an incompetent President, a dumb populace, and poor civic behavior, but I still think it's a pretty unfair comparison.
posted by Chickenring at 11:18 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Well... a substantial number of people live in a different media (Fox, Sinclair, Facebook) environment where Trump is delivering the goods, COVID is no worse than flu, etc. That's one thing. Another is that people can and do vote values over economic interests, and some of their values are pretty fucking terrible. And of course Republicans have pulled out all the stops to prevent black people from voting, meaning "almost 50%" is "almost 50% of those who were able to vote".
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 11:18 PM on November 3 [13 favorites]


So what are the odds that Trump will declare victory tonight? He obviously shouldn't, but we're at the point where he might try it.

I'm not sure if it's generally accepted by the stuffy and stodgy statistician community, but I believe the correct answer is ∞%.
posted by Bugbread at 11:18 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Australia and New Zealand are not the USA and as such do not count in the eyes of many Americans. Anywhere not the USA just does not have to keep "FREEDOM" at the cost of human lives. Anyway Fox News, OAN, Alex Jones, Q, and the host of BS that feeds their minds and souls lets them know that we are doing great and the masks are a sign of the real pandemic, Fear.

New Zealand is where Hobbits live and Australia gives us actors. Beyond that they can't really count, can they?
posted by Ignorantsavage at 11:19 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


He'd be stupid to try it, but that hasn't stopped him in the past.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:19 PM on November 3


Trump is a TV presenter. He wouldn't declare victory at 2:00AM because nobody's watching. Whatever he does he'll do it during breakfast TV.
posted by mmoncur at 11:19 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


WI, Mi, PA and GA are still in play, in varying degrees.

Biden needs two of the four to win. Trump needs to hold on to three to win.
posted by darkstar at 11:20 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


president khorosho speaks to maskless group standing cheek by jowl (& have been standing there together well longer than cdc guidelines advise) in east room. i'll have that drink now.
posted by 20 year lurk at 11:21 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Muting audio now for Trump’s lies.
posted by darkstar at 11:21 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Praying for an aneurysm.
posted by flamk at 11:25 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


ABC calls one EV from Maine's 1st for Biden.
posted by reductiondesign at 11:25 PM on November 3


Trump's just whining about not winning yet and saying he can't be caught in Georgia and NC.
posted by Chickenring at 11:26 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Assuming NV, AZ and MA are locks for Biden now which seems fairly safe to call Biden winning GA would force Trump to have to win NC, WI, PA and MI. Not impossible but a pretty step task.
posted by vuron at 11:27 PM on November 3


Hi I managed to stay off of the internet for over 24 hours until about two hours ago because I'm a fucking moron. I've just thrown up. Can anyone offer real, fact-based hope for me so that I can try to sleep?
posted by tzikeh at 11:28 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


Annie Karni in Washington, NYT: "'We were winning everything. And all of a sudden it was called off,' Trump said. It was not clear what he was talking about."
posted by reductiondesign at 11:28 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


It being very very close is what I predicted, but I'm still astounded that it isn't a complete blowout for the very lacklustre Biden.
posted by Dysk at 11:30 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


There it goes, "We are going to the supreme court, we don't want them to find any ballots." Find any ballots? Expected rhetoric and yet still un-fucking-believable
posted by unid41 at 11:30 PM on November 3 [8 favorites]


*sniff*
posted by fullerine at 11:30 PM on November 3


"we'll be going to the supreme court of the united states. we want all voting to stop. we don't want them to find ballots at 4:00 in the morning...."
posted by 20 year lurk at 11:30 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


Can anyone offer real, fact-based hope for me so that I can try to sleep?

Seems at this point, a whole lot of Atlanta Dems would need to have voted Republican for Trump to swing this.
posted by sideshow at 11:30 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Hi I managed to stay off of the internet for over 24 hours until about two hours ago because I'm a fucking moron. I've just thrown up. Can anyone offer real, fact-based hope for me so that I can try to sleep?

We're doing Airplane! references so the best I can manage is to shake you violently and slap you in the face. Hang on, I'm wanted on the phone.
posted by um at 11:31 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


He said "as far as I'm concerned we've won," but that's not the same as claiming victory. Just the same swill as always.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:31 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


They support the right wing because the right wing gives them what they want, and screw everybody else.

Reminds of a line in "The White Noise Supremacists" (about racism in the NY punk scene) from the essential Lester Bangs anthology "Psychotic Reactions and Carburetor Dung". In reference to a large number of white folks not caring about racism, he notes that "...nothing short of a hydrogen bomb on their own heads or a sudden brutal bigoted slap in the face will make almost anybody think about anybody else's problems but their own".

Granted Fox and the right-wing disinformation machines and hatred of the Other and etc. play a role, but there's a sadly large part of the population for whom kids in cases and PoCs being murdered by the police don't matter because, fuck you Jack, I got mine. Even if they don't realize how they got it in the first place (e.g. unions), how much more they could have, and how easily it can be taken away from them.
posted by gtrwolf at 11:33 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


We're doing Airplane! references so the best I can manage is to shake you violently and slap you in the face. Hang on, I'm wanted on the phone.

The request is a serious request.
posted by tzikeh at 11:33 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


ABC calls Montana Senate seat for Daines (R).
posted by reductiondesign at 11:34 PM on November 3


tzikeh, this is the most facty set of results I've been following.
Still plenty of votes to count. A lot of red, but still ok electorally.
posted by bartleby at 11:34 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Regarding votes based on the Trump administration's Covid response:
Covid itself ranks about 4th when it comes to issues the general voting population cares about this election. For Republicans it's even less of a concern. The 233,000 (official) Covid deaths have not been evenly distributed throughout the US population of 330 million. There are many people in this country who don't know anyone that's died from it. Maybe they know a few people that've gotten sick and then recovered, but for the most part it's other people* that have suffered and died. The real problem with Covid, in their view, has been the fact that they've lost work, income, and freedom due to lockdowns and restrictions implemented by government officials. Trump's incompetence doesn't enter into it.

*vulnerable populations, people living in poverty, people of color
posted by theory at 11:35 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


Hope: Trump lies 99% of the time and is factually wrong, like what 85% of the time. Currently claiming that he has won, so that weights the odds against him pretty good.

Alternatively we have several metro areas in close states that have yet to count large numbers of ballots and there is a wave of mail-in ballots still to be counted. This is not over and it does not look like the Mangled Apricot Hellbeast has a clear path to victory. Right now we know only that nobody knows how this is going to play out. There are still a couple of days to go and if that upsets you, I understand. My I point to the Break Room.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 11:35 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


drink every time trump lies

good night
posted by adept256 at 11:36 PM on November 3


If Georgia goes to Biden, send any cakes to Stacey Abrams.
posted by Iris Gambol at 11:36 PM on November 3 [14 favorites]


I think the state of the count is that it's not a big win for Biden, and not a big miss for polling, but otherwise still unknown. It's not 2016 for sure, but it's possible it's 2000. So, good for Biden overall, but it's going to be a while.
If this is Airplane!, we're in a fight over the parking zone colors.
posted by netowl at 11:36 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Trump knows he's about to get totally dunked on with mail ballots on Wednesday.

@cheyennehaslett ABC News To give a sense for where we are so far on counting absentee ballots in major battlegrounds:

In Pennsylvania, 25% of the absentee/early vote is in. In Michigan, 20% of the absentee/early vote is in. And in Wisconsin, 0% of absentee/early vote is in.

Pennsylvania still has over 2million ballots and based upon party affiliation it seems like it's going to be a massive swing and there should be similar swings in MI and WI
posted by vuron at 11:37 PM on November 3 [15 favorites]


NYT on Kelly (AZ-D-hopefully).


At a small election night victory party at a hotel in downtown Tucson, Ariz., Mark Kelly, a Democrat, told supporters that he expected to emerge victorious in Arizona’s U.S. Senate special election against Senator Martha McSally, a Republican.

Fox News called the race for Mr. Kelly, a former astronaut, around 9:30 p.m. local time, but The Associated Press and other news organizations had not yet done so. Several hours later, with 77 percent of the vote counted, Mr. Kelly led Ms. McSally by just over nine points, 54.6 percent to 45.4 percent.

In front of a crowd of about 100 reporters and supporters, Mr. Kelly stopped just short of declaring victory.

“I’m confident that when the votes are counted, we’re going to be successful in this mission,” he said.

Mr. Kelly thanked his wife, Gabrielle Giffords, the former Democratic congresswoman who survived a 2011 assassination attempt. He said she taught him about public policy and public service, and also “to never ever give up.”

Ms. McSally launched her political career in the wake of the shooting of Ms. Giffords, running three times for her old congressional seat before securing a win.

...

Ms. McSally lost a 2018 U.S. Senate race against Kyrsten Sinema before being appointed to Mr. McCain’s seat after his death. Her defeat would be the first time in modern history that a candidate has lost both of a state’s Senate seats to the opposing party.
posted by reductiondesign at 11:38 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


Can anyone offer real, fact-based hope for me so that I can try to sleep?

Based on outstanding votes (not just how many there are, but where they are), Biden is very likely to win at least two of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia; with ME-1 and NE-1 that puts him over the top. Final range of potential outcomes there is 270-268 to 306-231 depending on which combination of states.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 11:38 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


So all I know is that regardless of the outcome tonight, my gloves are off. I tired of B.S. and enabling it (which I've realized I've done more and more over the years),

Going to sleep. A healthy amount of vodka requires it. Thanks for keeping me informed. I am not going to give up!
posted by goalyeehah at 11:38 PM on November 3 [5 favorites]


Trump just doused a tanker truck’s worth of gasoline on the electoral process and directed a flamethrower at it. This is going to get very bad, very quickly.
posted by New Frontier at 11:38 PM on November 3 [10 favorites]


tzikeh,

The basic case for hope as I understand it: Wisconsin and Michigan are probably currently a light red on whatever map you are looking at. These states weren't allowed to start counting their early/mail in ballots until the polls closed. Those mail in ballots are expected to heavily favor Biden, so many people expect those states to eventually end up going to Biden. Georgia is similar, in that there are a good chunk of votes from urban centers that haven't been counted yet. Georgia would most likely be bonus electorial college votes, with Wisconsin and Michigan being more decisive. And Pennsylvania, similar story. People have not given up hope for Pennsylvania!
posted by Bibliogeek at 11:40 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


This is exactly what a lot of us expected. I have been waiting all day for this to happen with a sort of fatalism. Now we're here and we'll find out exactly what everyone is made of. Luckily, I know some people have been taking this seriously.

Stay strong, friends. The fascists won't win.
posted by Lonnrot at 11:41 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


Looks like Milwaukee will be announcing all of the absentee ballot results at once, around 3am (as opposed to trickling the numbers out). So another hour and a half to go before those numbers come in. Per Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on twitter
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 11:41 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


Thank you for the electoral hope - I'm actually more concerned with SCOTUS disqualifying votes and handing it to 45
posted by tzikeh at 11:42 PM on November 3 [3 favorites]


> drink every time trump lies
ARE YOU TRYING TO KILL US?!

:)

posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 11:43 PM on November 3 [7 favorites]


I'm actually more concerned with SCOTUS disqualifying votes

It would require an extraordinary volte-face on precedent from earlier rulings that the manner in which a state's votes are counted is something left to state legislatures. In the event that happens, then buckle the fuck up because things are going to get bumpy and we're looking at secession/disunion as possible outcomes.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 11:45 PM on November 3 [6 favorites]


The fascists won't win.

They won last time without even showing just how super-ultra-fascist they are, and the Rs are overturning Ds across the nation.
posted by tzikeh at 11:46 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]


> drink every time trump lies

ARE YOU TRYING TO KILL US?!

It is the way.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 11:46 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


The President falsely claimed to have already won the election. You don’t need to look at the results to know he was lying. You only need to note that he demanded the vote-counting end in states where he was ahead, while demanding the vote-counting continue in states where he was behind. Fortunately, that’s not something the President gets to decide.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:46 PM on November 3 [11 favorites]


No matter who the President ends up being, this has just confirmed that we are never visiting the US - no amount of natural beauty, fascinating culture and amazing food pathways is going to make up for the fact millions of people were so ignorant. And that many of them own guns.
posted by Megami at 11:48 PM on November 3 [35 favorites]


no amount of natural beauty, fascinating culture and amazing food pathways is going to make up for the fact millions of people were so ignorant

You live in Brexitland (so did I, until earlier this year); just as much ignorance, fewer guns.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 11:49 PM on November 3 [27 favorites]


Does anyone understand Maine demographics enough to explain the vote share still outstanding? I’m trying to understand the senate race there.
posted by nat at 11:49 PM on November 3


So I woke up to see Trump just do what he did. Fuck that dude.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 11:50 PM on November 3 [4 favorites]


It's one thing for the SCOTUS to invalidate absentee ballots that fail to arrive by Nov.3 although they've already shown that they are going to defer to the states established rules for counting ballots postmarked by the 3rd.

But these are mainly ballots that have already been received and are at the state. It would be a massive stretch to somehow come up with an utterly partisan decision that says that mail ballots received before Nov 3 should not be considered valid especially since the Constitution clearly leaves the control of elections to the individual states.

I think they'll try to contest ballots but if the partisan breakdown of the remaining ballots is accurate it won't even be close unless improbably large numbers get thrown out. I worry about the possibility of malfeasance but I think Trump is mainly posturing for the possibility of convincing the media to report on his inevitablity and right now they seem extremely unwilling to comply. Even Fox's decision desk is starting to be extremely pessimistic to Trump's chances.
posted by vuron at 11:53 PM on November 3 [12 favorites]


I think Trump would have talked for longer if he was confident. He didn't look engaged at all.
posted by knapah at 11:57 PM on November 3 [2 favorites]




You're right, vuron. What you're saying makes total sense. It makes so much sense I'm going to reassure myself with that and go to bed. Goodnight all.
posted by Kevin Street at 11:59 PM on November 3 [1 favorite]


The stone weighing me down is starting to levitate. Thank you everyone! Now off to bed, praying we wake up to good news.
posted by blue shadows at 12:01 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


> It seems improbable that the massive turnout we're seeing will be in his favor.

One word we should probably use a lot more with respect to Trump is "populist". He knows is base and he knows how to fire them up.

(He fires them up with lies, vile performances, etc etc etc. But, that is the populist way. Just look at any populist politician across the globe or throughout history.)

Point being, that we know Dems are highly motivated to turn out and vote the bum out. But the right wing is, at this point, also equally motivated. We talk a lot about the things Trump does badly--such as governing--but one thing he is very, very good at is getting his supporters really, really fired up and motivated.

So, it's not as surprising as you might think that the two sides are pretty close to evenly matched.

Point is, if Trump really is defeated here--and it looks like he is, at this point, decisively defeated, even if not a landslide--this is really something of a historic tipping point.

Because right now both sides are straining to their utmost and bringing out their very, very best game.

And if, despite that, the Trumpists are decisively defeated that is going to send a strong message. Their game is never going to get any better than this. If it's not good enough, then it never will be.

They're doomed.
posted by flug at 12:01 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]


Yeah, I think the strangely clutch thing in all of this is that Fox news, despite everything else, still has a fact based polling and elections division, willing to stand by their work. So we're garages to have ticket carlson throwing his temper tantrums, but the numbers on the bottom of the screen will still be factual, at least.
posted by kaibutsu at 12:02 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


538: "ABC News is projecting that Proposition 22 has passed in California. The ballot measure classifies drivers and delivery people for app-based companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash as independent contractors rather than employees, but also guarantees them certain benefits in exchange. Those companies spent $200 million in support of the proposition."
posted by reductiondesign at 12:05 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


ABC reports South Dakota passed Amendment A, "which would legalize recreational marijuana."
posted by reductiondesign at 12:07 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


RE: rural voters.

Our state's politics are dominated by rural voters. I, too, am very, very disappointed that the Democrats have not made more of a concerted play for them.

Everything people here moan about is very, very true for SOME rural voters--and even more so, some suburban conservative voters, who identify very, very closely with rural values.

But.

Nearly every rural district in our state is more of a 55-45 or 60-40 type district. Yes, a few are 80-20 or 90-10. But not many. Most are more in the slightly red camp than in the deep, dark red camp.

In fact, if anything rural areas are typically more diverse in terms of political opinion than cities, where (at least here) it is not at all uncommon to see 90-10 blue districts in the larger cities.

Point is: there is a certain percentage of voters who you are never going to sway.

But forget them. Look elsewhere.

If you can sway just 5% or 10% of the rural electorate, you are going to swing a whole lot of districts. And you're going to make a whole lot of statewide and national elections swing blue. Because in a statewide election, the Democrats don't need to WIN the rural areas, but the definitely DO need to limit their losses. Losing rural Missouri 45/55 rather than 40/50 is HUGE and many a politician has built a career on doing just that.

There is a group of sway-able voters in small towns and rural areas, maybe 5-10-15-20% of the population. THOSE are your targets, not the (relatively small group of) hard-core conservatives who will never change.
posted by flug at 12:07 AM on November 4 [17 favorites]


NYT calls AZ Senate for Kelly (D); Maine for Biden.
posted by reductiondesign at 12:07 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


Chickenring: USA population is oh about 300 million more people than Australia, and our population density is like 94 per mi 2, versus Australia's 8 per mi 2

Except for the part where Australia is extremely urbanised, and almost nobody lives in 99% of the country, because everything there wants to kill you.

Two cities alone, Sydney and Melbourne account for 10M out of 25M citizens.

Add Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and satellite cities like the Gold Coast, Newcastle and Wollongong and you're up to about 18M out of 25M.

Don't be fooled by outback myths. We're basically all city folk.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:09 AM on November 4 [33 favorites]


It’s amazing to me that I am seeing more posts about ‘democrats need to do X a to appeal to rural voters’ than I do about the very real election interference and voter suppression we saw in the lead up to today...
posted by Drumhellz at 12:11 AM on November 4 [45 favorites]


Looking better now, yes.

Quick numbers:

1. Georgia.
Biden is down in GA by 120,000 votes right now, with 91% reporting. So ~400,000 votes remain to be counted. They are mostly absentee/mail-in votes in Dem strongholds, expected to break HARD for Biden. (By 70-80% or so.). If that projection holds, then Biden wins Georgia, and he only needs to pick up one of the remaining three “Blue Wall” states to win the Presidency.

2. Wisconsin.
Wisconsin looks right now to be the most likely “Blue Wall” state to flip for Biden. Right now, Biden is down by about 120,000 votes, with 82% reporting. So ~700,000 votes remain to be counted. As mentioned upthread, they have not even reported a single absentee/mail-in ballot. If Biden can grab 60% of the remaining vote — which is very possible given that absentee vote is skewing heavily toward Biden — then he picks up enough votes to win Wisconsin, and with GA, takes the Presidency.

That’s not even getting into possibilities with MI and PA.

I feel good about our chances here. Looking forward to hearing WI drop the tallies on the absentee/mail-in votes in a couple of hours...
posted by darkstar at 12:13 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]


Current Electoral College votes.

NBC: 220 Biden, 213 Trump
Fox: 238 Biden, 213 Trump
NYT: 227 Biden, 213 Trump
ABC: 221 Biden, 213 Trump
posted by reductiondesign at 12:15 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


I just want to tell us all good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by 20 year lurk at 12:15 AM on November 4 [32 favorites]


Count faster.
posted by Marticus at 12:16 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


FYI it looks like all statewide races in Missouri have gone Republican by something like 15 points. This looks to solidify a swing to the right that has been noticeable in statewide races since about 2008, when Obama was first elected.

In 2008, Democrats held every statewide office save one (though Republicans controlled both state House and Senate with significant majorities). In the 12 years since then, Republican majorities in statewide races seem to have grown steadily with each succeeding election. This margin is the largest I've seen and probably the largest Republican majority here since maybe the 1800s or maybe ever. At this point, Republicans control House & Senate with veto-proof majorities and hold every statewide elected office--include U.S. Senators--except for one.

In other Missouri ballot action, voters appear to have repealed the heart of "Clean Missouri," a nonpartisan redistricting scheme that was passed by ~65% of voters in 2018. The districting process for state offices will revert to the "old way" which is controlled by the governor/legislature. In addition, a few crazy poison pills were added to the process. The vote this time was narrow, 51/49. Info on Missouri Amendment 3, info from Clean Missouri.

A ballot measure to add term limits to statewide offices that do not currently have them (lt gov, attorney general, etc) looks to have failed.
posted by flug at 12:17 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


It’s amazing to me that I am seeing more posts about ‘democrats need to do X a to appeal to rural voters’ than I do about the very real election interference and voter suppression we saw in the lead up to today

Well the first thing is a fundamental part of American historical/political/social myth, reconciliation between its two most important groups: white people and other white people. And the second one is hard and would suggest there are deficiencies in the American Way of Doing Things.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 12:17 AM on November 4 [20 favorites]


Probably time to call it a night.

@lucyeperk per 538: "Allegheny County is pausing the count and reconvening at 10 am to continue."
posted by reductiondesign at 12:22 AM on November 4


I just heard on CNN that Fulton county, GA stopped counting their absentee ballots at 10:30pm and will resume in the morning. Is this typical? It seems really early, especially when results are still coming in even at 3-4am now (and yes, I know each county/state can regulate elections differently).
posted by unid41 at 12:24 AM on November 4


Looks like GA just reported an extra 1% of the vote (now 92% reported), which cut Trump’s lead from 120,000 to 100,000. Five more steps like that and GA is Biden’s.
posted by darkstar at 12:25 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


> It’s amazing to me that I am seeing more posts about ‘democrats need to do X a to appeal to rural voters’ than I do about the very real election interference and voter suppression we saw in the lead up to today...

Voter suppression is the R's short-term tactic that of course we need to counter as effectively as possible.

The fact that rural America has a disproportionate voice in the American political system is a fact that is baked into our system at a very, very deep level from the Constitution all the way up.

And it is not a mistake. It was done quite purposefully. You're not going to change it (things like Electoral College elimination are of course a good idea but represent only one fairly minor facet of the issue). It is a fact that you simply have to deal with. The purpose was, to make sure that politicians and political parties give due attention to smaller states and rural and more lightly populated areas.

Getting the Democratic Party fully on board with this is a generational game-changer that would deal the Republicans a body-blow for generations to come. Any American political party that does not make a continual effort to appeal to some portion of the rural/small-state population is working at a continual disadvantage.

And for no reason. There is plenty in the Democrat's platform that can be very, very appealing to large segments of these voters.

Compared to that, voter suppression is penny-ante stuff.

(And again, not to say you should just ignore that or that it--and worse, like stuffing ballot boxes--hasn't won many elections. It has.)
posted by flug at 12:25 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


@unid41: The counting will continue all night, it's just the reporting of results that will be suspended til morning.
posted by theory at 12:29 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Theory, I think that’s jurisdiction dependent. Some places let the poll workers sleep.
posted by nat at 12:32 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


I would just like to say here, that I have remained sober throughout this evening. And this is no small feat, I can tell you.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 12:33 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]


Nate Silver, 538: "Some Wisconsin math: Trump leads by 119,000 votes there currently. But there are reported 211,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted in Milwaukee County, which are likely to be very blue. If Biden won them 3:1, it would make the state very close. Beyond that, what’s outstanding is a bit less clear. The city of Green Bay has yet to report results, which should be blue-ish but it’s certainly no Madison or Milwaukee."
posted by reductiondesign at 12:34 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


I think the 'rural America' bit is sometimes inappropriately applied, and intentionally to obfuscate.
There's also the 'two Americas' schtick.
But if you look at the red and blue trends, going back to heck, 1988, those are the history that the predictors base their spin on, and campaign consultants run their target strategies against.
posted by bartleby at 12:35 AM on November 4


Chat is still alive.
posted by Marticus at 12:36 AM on November 4


CNN is showing Wisconsin with 83% reported, with Trump’s lead cut down to 109,000.
posted by darkstar at 12:37 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]




@nat, Yeah I should have made it clear that I was referring only to Fulton County, GA.
posted by theory at 12:39 AM on November 4


I'm supposed to go to bed early because of suspected Narcolepsy, but F it. I'm from Milwaukee; I want to see those results!
posted by spinifex23 at 12:46 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Yeah, I have a video lecture session in the morning. But there’s no way I’m going to bed until I see the WI absentee numbers post.
posted by darkstar at 12:53 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Just so y'all know it might be longer...

538: "Earlier tonight, Milwaukee County (expected to be among the last places to finish counting) said to expect semi-final results around 6 a.m. Eastern."
posted by reductiondesign at 12:58 AM on November 4


Yes, they had said that earlier tonight it would be 5am central but then updated it to 3am. I think Nate Silver is behind the ball on that one.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 1:00 AM on November 4


CNN saying they are expecting WI to make an announcement very soon.
posted by darkstar at 1:09 AM on November 4




Julietta Henry reports that 100% of Milwaukee County‘s count is done. after getting the computer information from Claire Woodall-Vogg. Henry says it will take about 30 minutes for the information to be uploaded. Reported by: @MegJonesJS journalist for the Mil paper
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 1:20 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


So according to AP Trump is leading in WI by about 109K votes, and according to that tweet there are about 170K absentee ballots that they've just processed. Might be worth staying awake for another half hour to see what happens.
posted by bink at 1:28 AM on November 4


That's just the absentee ballots from Milwaukee County. There are other counties still counting.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 1:30 AM on November 4




While we wait for Milwaukee....just a little good news.....Utah voted overwhelmingly to remove references condoning slavery from its Constitution.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 1:32 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


Other WI counties are difficult to assess.

Some have absentees mixed in with the current numbers already posted. So there’s no way to gauge just how much the remainder of the votes in those other counties may favor Biden.

I expect that ALL of the remaining counties (including the red ones) will improve Biden’s numbers and cut into Trump’s lead because of some absentee component still outstanding in each county. If each of the smaller counties can cut Trump’s lead by 2-3,000 votes, then it makes for a lighter lift needed by Milwaukee County.

I’d like to see Milwaukee’s numbers cut Trump’s lead to 20,000 or less. That seems like it could be overcome by the other counties if they each have a significant absentee component outstanding.
posted by darkstar at 1:35 AM on November 4


"Why is Michigan so late? Because 60 Republican challengers appeared at the counting site and are challenging every ballot. This has slowed down the process." [Twitter]
posted by theory at 1:35 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]


Fuckers.
posted by darkstar at 1:36 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]




Biden now up by 20k in WI according to Nate Silver on Twitter.
posted by Rumple at 1:39 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]


what the hell is that? 60 randos or what? shouldn't there be 60 arrests? gtfo of the counting room
posted by adept256 at 1:40 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


You mean I could have been downtown yelling "I hereby challenge this ballot" at every Republican ballot they counted?
posted by mmoncur at 1:43 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]


Large vote outstanding in Brown County, WI, which is expected to skew Biden. I think WI is gonna be BIDEN’S!!!!
posted by darkstar at 1:44 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


Nate Cohn and others have been struggling to convey just how overwhelmingly Democratic the absentee and mail ballots in WI/MI/PA are. It's why such a big shift in Biden's favor is possible right now in Wisconsin and it's why Trump is launching an all-out war on them in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
posted by theory at 1:44 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]


Yeah, a lot of Dems I knew (including myself) voted absentee in WI.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 1:46 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


Same, I'm a Dem Madtowner who took her ballot to one of the Democracy in the Parks events.
posted by humbug at 1:46 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Milwaukee absentee went 143k Biden 24k Trump
posted by fullerine at 1:48 AM on November 4 [23 favorites]


Yes!
posted by inflatablekiwi at 1:49 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Still to be determined what will happen in the remaining counties in WI, though. If it’s predominately absentee, then Biden keeps his lead. If not, Trump could retake the lead.

Especially uncertain, because those counties didn’t have the prohibition against counting their absentee votes early, like Milwaukee did. So those other counties could have already counted the absentees, and are just waiting to finalize day-of in-person voting, which skews Trump.

UGH!
posted by darkstar at 1:51 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


The wheel of cheese is now more gap, and less cheese.
posted by Wordshore at 1:52 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


I don't know if the city of Kenosha has reported its numbers yet but I saw a 9k lead there
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 1:53 AM on November 4


I took an hour to get home and WI is looking much better so there is that. Now when PA starts adding urban mail-in ballots later today this may be a much brighter Wednesday.The disgraced King of the Oompa Loompas will have a harder time whinging about later ballots if just the ones received by e-day tell him to hit the road.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 1:54 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Not over in WI...

Biden’s lead trimmed to 7,800 votes. Unpredictable remaining votes outstanding, as they can’t be assumed to be absentee.
posted by darkstar at 1:59 AM on November 4


So you’re suggesting the leftist portion just sat this one out because four more years of fascism won’t be so bad?

Well, that was Greenwald and Assanges' brilliant plan. Because they loathed Clinton so much, the idea was Trump should win, and then a coalition of the Left and um, something would keep Trump in check. We see how well that turned out.

And let's not forget "How will we mitigate the evil Democrats will do?” from here. Looks like that's going to be a pretty easy job at this point.

But honestly? That all was an idiot pundit, and internet posturing, and I'm not sure how much effect it actually had on the real world. Turnout's been up this year, so actual people may drown out any privileged nonvoter position.
posted by happyroach at 2:01 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Green Bay's absentee ballot results are being delayed because one of the vote-counting machines ran out of ink and an elections official had to return to City Hall to get more. [Twitter]
posted by theory at 2:01 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


Well I'm all caught up with this thread after a few hours in the car listening to the WNYC live stream. And we're just going to wait until Thursday or Friday and see what happens in Pennsylvania. And amazingly Maybe Georgia. Thank you Stacey Abrams.

I've spent far too many hours listening to Lawfare, Amicus, and Deep State Radio, so on the kind of bleak low expectations positive side, I'm really thankful that there was not violence at polling stations today. As far as I have seen. Also some of the really nightmarish scenarios like a power cut in Detroit didn't happen. I will take these non-events as a win. A pathetic win but things could have been a whole lot worse.

If Biden/Harris eke out an electoral college win we are going to have to fight to keep it. But I'm beginning to have some faith that we can.
posted by Gotanda at 2:02 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


Not election related but if you haven't you should check out Stacey Abrams' interview on David Tennant's podcast, here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stacey-abrams/id1450005207?i=1000488434133 It is delightful.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:05 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


Can anybody explain why analysts are talking about whether Biden can hold Wisconsin & Michigan?

They went Republican in 2016, didn't they?

Is the reference to the midterms or something?
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:08 AM on November 4


@UboRovias, I'm not sure, but it may be referring to his presumed lead in these states based on recent polls.
posted by unid41 at 2:13 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


They 'flipped' in 2016, and have traditionally gone blue, so the pundits are probably speaking from the prior that they'll go blue. (also, with all the polling pointing that way.)
posted by kaibutsu at 2:13 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Green Bay's absentee ballot results are being delayed because one of the vote-counting machines ran out of ink and an elections official had to return to City Hall to get more. [Twitter]

Green Bay now has printer ink!
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:14 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


RE: Senators...Repiblicans came into this election with 53 senators. So we needed to net plus three to tie it, four to win outright.

We lost one in AL and gained two from CO and AZ. So we’re up one total.

Someone in Chat mentioned that Collins is ahead with 49.5% of the vote and 66% reported, but doesn’t have at least 50%. So if ranked choice voting passes in Maine and Collins can’t break 50%, then she could still lose. Or, she could lose outright if the remaining 34% of the vote skews blue.

Then our best chance is for Warnock to win the runoff with Loeffler in GA.

If all of that goes right, then we tie the Senate. With Biden’s Veep breaking the tie, then Dems control the Senate. But holy cow, that’s a narrow path!
posted by darkstar at 2:17 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


@UboRovias They may also be speaking in terms of the current ballot count.

There's a bad habit that pretty much everybody has of talking about this process as if it's a game, where one candidate is ahead until the other candidate comes through with a tranche of ballots from some district and takes the lead, as if they're scoring points rather than it just being a running tally of votes that have already been cast... which it is.
posted by theory at 2:18 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]


theory: It's just like Camus playing Candyland.
posted by kaibutsu at 2:20 AM on November 4 [31 favorites]


Anxious about the election?

Drincodin
posted by bendy at 2:22 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


(oh man, I had forgotten how the Camus comic ends... It is a hundred times more relevant than I thought.)
posted by kaibutsu at 2:23 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


Biden’s lead in Nevada shrinks to about 1.5% due to large dump of votes in Clark County (Las Vegas). Don’t know what is outstanding (mail or in-person).

But Nevada may still be in play.
posted by darkstar at 2:27 AM on November 4


We should cut Wisconsin some slack, when has a printer ever ran out of ink before
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 2:27 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


Nevada will be counting ballots for the next week or so as they arrive in the mail. They can arrive as late as the 10th and be counted as long as they were postmarked no later than the 3rd.
posted by theory at 2:34 AM on November 4


Any democratic votes in Nevada would have to come from Clark County, wouldn't they? Nevada is basically Las Vegas surrounded by a few thousand acres of Wyoming.
posted by mmoncur at 2:36 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Waiting for WI votes in Brown county to be posted before I go to bed. (Yes, I know I said I’d go to bed when Milwaukee posted.)

Get the dang printer going, Brown!
posted by darkstar at 2:40 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


A repost of mine from the 19th of last month:

Friday I got a call from the doctor's office to remind me that I'm due for a mammogram.

The last time I had a mammogram was on election day in 2016. As I sat in traffic on the way home, full of optimism, I listened over and over again to Sex on Wheels.

I could try to explain how cheesy and upbeat it is but the important part was yelling the lines "history is written by winners baby / so let's make a little of our own tonight." And we were winners and we were going to elect the first woman president and make history tonight.

I'd have never guessed that the day my breasts were palpitated by a stranger named Wendy would turn out to be the last really good day since then.

Last Thursday night I was supposed to be front row center at the Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds show. It was going to be a hurrah - either final or not - before the November election; an amazing pandemonium to prepare for whatever comes next.

A few weeks after I bought my ticket I was chatting with one of the guys who works at my liquor store and enthusing about the show. The guy checking out at the other register said "good luck with that."

The next day I got an email saying that Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds had cancelled their 2020 North American tour.
posted by bendy at 2:43 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


re: the very close race in Wisconsin

> I don't know if the city of Kenosha has reported its numbers yet but I saw a 9k lead there

the Kenosha lead sounds like it was absentee votes only -- see neighbouring commentry: https://twitter.com/CassidyWtv/status/1323916855556349954

when it is added to non absentee votes reported on the county website https://www.kenoshacounty.org/1405/Current-Election-Results

kenosha county ends up won by 2847 for trump

trump 34508 + 10103 absentee =total of 44611
biden 22064 + 19700 absentee = total of 41764

that helps trump close the gap but it doesnt seem enough to put him in an apparent lead

edit: actually nyt has biden at a 7k lead for the state, this appears to include the non absentee results from kenosha county, but not the absentee votes. so adding those should be +9k for biden

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html
posted by are-coral-made at 2:45 AM on November 4


I understood that Kenosha County was going to go for Trump. Just wasn't sure if the city's results had been added yet which would decrease Trump's lead in the county.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:49 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Welp, jenfullmoon, it's 3 am - are you already up again, too? I feel sooooo rested and calm and refreshed after that 3 hour... nap. Did Trump declare martial law while I was asleep?
posted by PhineasGage at 2:51 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


Nevada's in-person votes have already been counted. There are roughly 415,000 mail ballots that are currently in hand. About 75,000 of them haven't been counted yet. As in other states these ballots have been overwhelmingly Democratic, so there's good reason for Biden to be optimistic here -- unless the ones that will be coming in over the next few days are much more Republican.

Nevada and Minnesota were the two states that Trump was really intent on flipping. That was never really gonna happen with Minnesota, but Nevada could be close.
posted by theory at 2:56 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


This Green Bay printer story is getting ridiculous. "There’s been some drama about a lack of printer ink (but actually probably a lack of paper because the machine doesn’t even use ink)."
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:13 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Hey it's a dot matrix printer from the 80s so it prints really slow and the paper doesn't always line up right so it's coming out crooked and they want to print it right so they can slide it under the professor's office door before 8am...
posted by vuron at 3:21 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


Non-Americans: look, there are at least 60 million Americans, probably a lot more than that, who are just as baffled as you are that Trump has a base of support. We're in the same boat. So your sentiments of "I'm not American, but looking at this from abroad I can just scratch my head. What is going on with Trump/politics/the American people/etc.?"

We know. We're just as upset (actually moreso) but can only scream into the ether so much. If Trump wins I'll lie to everyone and say that I'm Canadian and be above it all, and that's about all I can do.

So we get it. America is fucked (even with a Biden win). But the humblebrag incredulity from abroad is like salt in our wounds, just sayin.
posted by zardoz at 3:21 AM on November 4 [65 favorites]


Just woke up. Does anyone have any idea what is going on? I can’t make sense of anything I’m seeing.
posted by double bubble at 3:22 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Fuck it looks like Susan collins has 51% of the vote. Still crossing fingers for the outstanding ballots but it's not looking good for a ranked choice vote.
posted by pintapicasso at 3:23 AM on November 4


Mainly it's a lot of waiting for absentee votes to be counted which are more likely to be from Dems. MI and PA are still likely to go blue even though current totals show Trump leading. There is a pathway to victory for Biden.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:24 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Also, for what it's worth: the more I read, the more hopeful I get. As long as the votes are actually counted over the next week or so, Biden should win.

Should.
posted by zardoz at 3:24 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


"I'm not American, but looking at this from abroad I can just scratch my head. What is going on with Trump/politics/the American people/etc.?"

I mean I'm sitting here in the UK where the Torys won three elections in four years and still have more support than Labour so we've got no leg to stand on here when it comes to baffling results.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 3:25 AM on November 4 [45 favorites]


Looking at the Wisconsin numbers right now and one thing that seems to be a bit funny is that it's quite likely that Jorgensen might've pealed off enough Trump voters there to make the difference. After Green party spoiler roles in 2000 and 2016 I'm amused by this turn of events.
posted by vuron at 3:26 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


The next day I got an email saying that Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds had cancelled their 2020 North American tour.

Damn, bad news. Hopefully you've seen NC&tBS before? Always such a good show.

Two degrees of separation from Nick here: was a neighbour for a year or two with a longterm musical collaborator & partner in crime of his, from Berlin days.
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:28 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


The non-Americans scratching their heads are right, though. We are just scratching our heads (pulling out our hair) along with them.
posted by pintapicasso at 3:28 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


we've got no leg to stand on here when it comes to baffling results

Hear, hear. Here in Poland, four times in the last five years we voted the right-wingers in.
posted by hat_eater at 3:30 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


I just hope that Biden has a lead in PA after the votes received by election day have been counted so it's less likely to be contested when the forthcoming ballots arrive in the following days.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:33 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


was a neighbour for a year or two with a longterm musical collaborator & partner in crime of his, from Berlin days

Oh that is intriguing does the collaborator and partner in crime have a famous scream?
posted by each day we work at 3:34 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Trump's strategy is openly and shamelessly stated. He only wants the count to continue in states where he's losing.
posted by essexjan at 3:35 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


Does anyone have any idea what is going on? I can’t make sense of anything I’m seeing.


Roughly speaking, AZ, GA, WI, MI and PA are the remaining key swing states, and the consensus is that uncounted postal votes in each of them will skew very strongly towards Biden giving him a good chance of winning each of them.

To win the presidency, Biden only needs three of the above states. The AP has already called AZ for Biden, so any two of the others would do it.

(NV and NC are also undecided, but are less significant / less likely to flip)
posted by grahamparks at 3:39 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


NC will unfortunately go red from my local perspective.
posted by mightshould at 3:46 AM on November 4


So sorry, mightshould.
posted by essexjan at 3:48 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Does anyone have a good source for following Georgia's counts?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:49 AM on November 4


I was hoping we'd get Tillis out of NC, but no such luck. Looks like we're stuck with him for another 6 years. 🤬
posted by Roger Pittman at 3:49 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Biden will certainly end up with a clear majority of the national popular vote. He's on 50.1% right now and that'll increase quite a bit more. Clinton finished with only a plurality of 48.2%.
posted by theory at 3:52 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


does the collaborator and partner in crime have a famous scream?

Not that I know of.

But they have six bells that chime.

(featuring the unutterably wonderful Rowland S Howard, RIP)
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:54 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


Biden will certainly end up with a clear majority of the national popular vote. He's on 50.1% right now and that'll increase quite a bit more. Clinton finished with only a plurality of 48.2%.

This is why I hate it when commentators talk about democrats' messaging failures (including on NPR overnight)--more people vote for the democrats! The electoral college is just a separate issue.
posted by rustcellar at 3:54 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]


I need reporters to stop saying, "about x votes were dropped" when they're talking about new votes coming in. We're not dropping albums here. Please don't scare me like that!
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:01 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


Does anyone have a good source for following Georgia's counts?


This seems like the quickest source for Wayne:

https://www.waynecounty.com/elected/clerk/election-results.aspx
posted by bootlegpop at 4:01 AM on November 4


wisconsin - unofficial final brown county results are posted: https://www.browncountywi.gov/departments/county-clerk/elections/2020-election-results/?5

https://www.browncountywi.gov/i/f/files/County-Clerk/Elections/Election%20Results/2020/November/canvass-final.pdf

it's trump 75,865 to biden 65,509, but when we jam that onto the nyt estimate i think we'd need to subtract away nyt's provisional brown county results of a +15 trump margin @ 66% votes counted -- i reckon it ends up something like -15k + 10k = -5k trump votes, so it should help biden's margin compared to what's already reported

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html?action=click&module=ELEX_results&pgtype=Interactive&region=ReporterUpdates
posted by are-coral-made at 4:02 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Thank you but I was looking for Georgia, not Michigan :)
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:02 AM on November 4




If the very last comment in this post before it locks isn’t an Airplane quote I will be very disappointed.
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:08 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]


Yes, birds too.
posted by theory at 4:09 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


Georgia election results via the Atlanta Journal Constitution: https://www.ajc.com/politics/election-results/
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:09 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Thank you but I was looking for Georgia, not Michigan :)


Sorry, my brain...
posted by bootlegpop at 4:12 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


WI looks to be very close to being secure blue and Detroit appears to be going Barry Sanders mode right now so I think MI will go blue within the next hour or so. At that point it's ballgame and we can just sit around to see if something fun happens in NC, PA and GA.

A bigger story overall than Cubans going for Trump in Florida is that Biden appears to have done a good job related to GOTV in the Rust Belt and while its coming in as mail ballots it is coming in especially in areas with big concentrations of PoC. It appears that the weakness Clinton displayed in these states in 2016 might not be replicated this time. I was afraid the Biden campaign was getting lured into the fool's gold of Texas and Florida but it appears like they did the work needed.
posted by vuron at 4:13 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]


Looks like Biden's lead in WI has widened and may be past the point of no return for Trump.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:14 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]


Anybody know how many people voted in this election, who were eligible to vote in 2016 but did not vote? IE, the number of new voters minus those too young to vote last time?
posted by pintapicasso at 4:17 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


Metafilter: Also vomiting has helped.
posted by Gotanda at 4:17 AM on November 4 [22 favorites]


Kenosha helping to clinch for Biden. Seems fitting somehow that Kenosha would be the place.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:20 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]


I have been vomiting for four years. It hasn't helped.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:20 AM on November 4 [17 favorites]


democracyrising.live

They have a ticker of how many votes Biden is ahead by, currently 2270059.
posted by adept256 at 4:20 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


Missouri gets its first Black Congresswoman, a Black Lives Matter activist.
posted by clawsoon at 4:21 AM on November 4 [73 favorites]


I am trying to breathe and chill when I think about the presidential race. So many TBD and as-yet-unknown factors.

For my Congressional rep, though, I am very much thinking about failures of messaging. It’s still too close to call. I voted for her because I think she’s the best on all counts, and the Democrat Bus gets me closer to where I want us to be. But messaging? She’s a first-termer, and PR on what she’s done hasn’t reached me, and I donated to her first campaign. This year? The messaging I can think of is the billboards and avalanche of fliers about how she “supports drive-through abortions” (apparently that’s supposed to be a bad thing, but whatever) and “stands with Pelosi” (a dig at her longstanding fiscal conservative approach). If my overall reddish county in VA has any undecided voters, I hope they got the word, but looks like Trump trounced Biden here.
posted by cupcakeninja at 4:25 AM on November 4


Biden pulled to within a point in Michigan with quite a few votes still outstanding that should lean heavily dem.

More hopeful news from Nate Cohn's twitter feed.
posted by eagles123 at 4:26 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


Yeah WI is tight but it's highly unlikely that a massive trove of mail-in votes for Trump are magically going to arrive. Same with NV.

All the talk of the Red Mirage due to day-of vote totals appears to be extremely accurate. One thing that I'm noticing is that Trump is maintaining very close to the same margins that he did in 2016 in Red counties in the Midwest but Blue counties are coming in stronger for Biden especially once mail-in votes are counted. This would seem to suggest that Trump's goal of maximum engagement with his base can only achieve so many votes and as long as voter turnout is high Democrats can win in these states. If Democrats can turn AZ and NV reliably Blue moving forward I don't see how a base only election strategy will continue to work for Republicans.

I think the big question mark will be how either party actually manages to engage with Hispanic voters since it doesn't seem like either party is really engaging the various communities within that demographic group in a particularly coherent manner.
posted by vuron at 4:27 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]


What the hell is wrong with Maiine?
posted by Max Power at 4:28 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


> What the hell is wrong with Maiine?

my understanding is that Biden has won statewide (2 ec votes) & ME 1 (1 ec vote) -- and the outcome for ME 2 (1 ec vote) is still pending, currently at around 52% trump / 42% biden. Before we started seeing any results, there was a fair chance (~30%?) that trump would win 1 ec vote from ME 2 and biden would take the other 3.
posted by are-coral-made at 4:31 AM on November 4


Yeah WI is tight but it's highly unlikely that a massive trove of mail-in votes for Trump are magically going to arrive. Same with NV.

There is no massive trove of absentee ballots coming for WI at all because only those received by Nov 3 are to be counted. Any received after won't, even if postmarked before Nov 3.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:34 AM on November 4


ME2 was always going to be a stretch goal for Biden. Wave election and he would've carried it but not a nailbiter. Maine at large is safe. Unfortunately it seems like Maine really likes Collin's furrowed brow so we're likely to see yet more of her false centrism.
posted by vuron at 4:35 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Hangin' out
Down the street
The same old thing
We did last week.
Not a thing to do
But talk to you
We're all alright, We're all alright

Hello Wisconsin!
posted by vuron at 4:42 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]


That over 70s show
posted by adept256 at 4:45 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


> More hopeful news from Nate Cohn's twitter feed.

yeah, Nate's estimate of how PA might pan out is also interesting: The Remaining Vote in Pennsylvania Appears to Be Overwhelmingly for Biden (NYT)

the scatter plot is promising. really obvious correlation between estimated & measured results in each county.
posted by are-coral-made at 4:45 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


In addition to the points made just above about Maine: Maine uses ranked-choice voting. If either Trump in ME's second district or Collins state-wide don't end up at 50% plus one vote of the vote, they'll go back, remove the lowest-ranked candidate, and re-run the totals. As a result, it takes longer to call close races where one candidate can't get a clear majority.

Presumably this is why the AP still hasn't called the Senate result in spite of Collins seeming to be way ahead. If it comes down to it, the votes for Savage likely have second preferences that would break heavily for Gideon, as Savage asked her voters to put Gideon second.
posted by pie ninja at 4:48 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


The Maine senate numbers are likely much closer than they look, because of ranked choice voting. Collins will need to pass 50% to win. Don't get me wrong--she probably will--but if you're confused because you'd heard Gideon was a slight favorite and now she's losing by 5%, that's why. The 4% going for the progressive independent as well as some portion of the 1% of write-ins would have Gideon as their second choice.
posted by lampoil at 4:49 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Hangin' out
Down the street


I stood on the 66 highway

Beneath my full moon heart
John Henry split this heart, split this full moon heart
Swing the heaviest hammer you got
Hit this one out of the park

John Henry split my heart
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:51 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Reminds of a line in "The White Noise Supremacists" (about racism in the NY punk scene) from the essential Lester Bangs anthology "Psychotic Reactions and Carburetor Dung".

I have this book, and it's past time to take it down and re-read it.
posted by mikelieman at 4:51 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


These states weren't allowed to start counting their early/mail in ballots until the polls closed.

A minor technical point based on my experiences in New York. The way we do it in my county is during polling hours, the ballot scanner accrues the votes on a flash drive. That's not "counting" the ballots. They're not "counted" until that flash drive is uploaded to the tabulating computer, so with the caveat of, "we have 50 different elections going on, and I have zero clue what happens in other jurisdictions", it *might not* be as depressing as it sounds. It *could be* 5 minutes work to "count" (upload) the early/mail in ballots which have already been scanned.

It *could be* the rest of the week. Your mileage will vary. Thank you all for being a touchstone of rationality in these turbulent times.
posted by mikelieman at 4:59 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


That's also how Wisconsin works, with the added wrinkle that some counties farm out absentees to the various wards they belong to for processing, and some counties count them at a central location.

Madison farms out, so we got done quickly. Milwaukee, I think, centralizes.
posted by humbug at 5:03 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


If you're up for something lighthearted, now might be a good time to re-read the Federalist No. 68, which remains one of the most consistently amusing things that the American Founding Fathers ever wrote.
posted by clawsoon at 5:04 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


> Votes are still being counted in Michigan’s Wayne County, which is also home to the city of Detroit. (cnn)
> County clerk Cathy M. Garrett declined to give a specific time frame on when we can expect it to be completed.
>> “Because of how large our county is, I don't want to be boxed in with that. But just know that we're not in a competition. It's just very important that we are accurate, and we will be here until the job is done,” Garrett said Wednesday.

i love this response. it's done when it's done. focus on getting the count right.

there might be around +350k votes not yet counted in Wayne county, currently the 617k votes that have been counted are showing a 36 point margin for Biden (NYT).
posted by are-coral-made at 5:04 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]


Is there any good reporting on the turnout demographics or why the polls are so wrong again? I am shocked to wake up and see it this close.
posted by nicoffeine at 5:05 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


WI looks to be very close to being secure blue and Detroit appears to be going Barry Sanders mode right now so I think MI will go blue within the next hour or so. At that point it's ballgame and we can just sit around to see if something fun happens in NC, PA and GA.

Trump's ahead by 700k in PA, but there's 1.4MM absentee ballots to count, and Biden's been leading those 70/30.

This election could have been worse, but holy shit it could have been a lot better. Now the question is whether the Republican party has a future after Trump (and the likely indictments that will follow him after he leaves office). Sadly the answer for them appears to be going all in on hate and division. I wonder though, if that doesn't work for folks who aren't Trump. Tom Cotton isn't exactly charismatic.

Also, does Mitch McConnell cut a deal with Biden on a stimulus? I'm betting it's a low ball like what happened in 2008, which means a laggy recovery.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:06 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Is there any good reporting on the turnout demographics or why the polls are so wrong again? I am shocked to wake up and see it this close.

Shy Trump voters and mistaken assumptions about Latino voting patterns is what I've heard.

Also looks like they haven't fixed the problem of overweighing higher education voters and underweighting lower education voters.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:08 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Now the question is whether the Republican party has a future after Trump (and the likely indictments that will follow him after he leaves office).
I think you are a bit early out with this (touches wood), but one of the things that worries me about the election being this close is that Biden won't have the mandate to clean up after Trump, even if he wins. So the Republicans won't feel any need to change their ways, contrariwise, they will just amp up.
posted by mumimor at 5:10 AM on November 4 [29 favorites]


> Is there any good reporting on the turnout demographics or why the polls are so wrong again? I am shocked to wake up and see it this close.

one of the factoids i read somewhere today was that only about 2-3% of people agree to participate in polls. So the estimates from the polling are missing out on 97%+ of the data, and if there's underlying reasons that cause people to both vote for trump and also not answer polls then that means the 3% or less are a biased sample of the true population.

David Shor mentions lower social trust being one factor correlated with people not responding to polls , which caused the 2016 Clinton campaign to tune their messaging to be a good fit for a population of college-educated professionals, which wasn't what the actual true population of voters looked like:

> The actual mechanical reason was that the Clinton campaign hired pollsters to test a bunch of different messages, and for boring mechanical reasons, working-class people with low levels of social trust were much less likely to answer those phone polls than college-educated professionals. And as a result, all of this cosmopolitan, socially liberal messaging did really well in their phone polls, even though it ultimately cost her a lot of votes.

So maybe something similar has happened. Maybe some different factors causing polling to be heavily biased sampling and thus produce results that don't predict the actual vote.
posted by are-coral-made at 5:14 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


Another one from the 538 live blog:
This could present a counterargument to the “emerging Democratic majority” thesis, which argued that the direction of the country’s demographic growth would disproportionately help Democrats. One of the more fascinating examples of this is Starr County, Texas, along the U.S.-Mexico border, where 96 percent of the population is of Hispanic or Latino origin. In 2016, Clinton won Starr by about 60 points. But Biden only carried it by 5 points, a massive shift.
posted by clawsoon at 5:14 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


Biden will probably decline to investigate the previous administration, "for the good of the country," and also to grease the wheels with Mcconnell. To pursue Trump would require a national mood this election seems to indicate does not exist.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 5:14 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


@USPoliticsPoll tweeted:

BREAKING: Joe Biden has surpassed Barack Obama’s 2008 popular vote total, breaking the record for most votes ever received by a candidate at a US Presidential Election.

Is that account a trustworthy source?
posted by popcassady at 5:16 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


There’s always SDNY...
posted by SillyShepherd at 5:16 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]




On everything but policy, the Dems should think to themselves: what would the GOP do? And then do that twice as hard.
posted by Freen at 5:17 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]


Also, does Mitch McConnell cut a deal with Biden on a stimulus?

Wrong thread to derail with lols but McConnell knows to play the long game and will be quite happy to drive into a depression if it will swing back power in four years.
posted by sammyo at 5:18 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]


This comment, noting that doomposting plays into Trump’s election night narrative, has helped with my nerves.

Thanks for that, Monochrome. I went to bed early last night and am just now catching up on what I've missed and was not feeling optimistic (WaPo's stupid election map did not help). Still feeling a deep sense of confirmed disappointment in this country - if the past year hasn't convinced you, then nothing will.
posted by photo guy at 5:20 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]


Dems seem to lack the stomach for cultural hardball. The party has ossified around the ideas of demographic shift and college making everyone a liberal that the work has been slapdash and myopic.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 5:20 AM on November 4 [20 favorites]


Also, does Mitch McConnell cut a deal with Biden on a stimulus?

You guys are totally invoking the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. Go outside, turn around three times, spit and curse.
posted by mmoncur at 5:23 AM on November 4 [29 favorites]


Is there any good reporting on the turnout demographics or why the polls are so wrong again? I am shocked to wake up and see it this close.

Given the Miami-Dade result, there seems to have been a problem correctly estimating the Cuban-American vote split. That made the difference in Florida.

I suspect other estimates were less accurate due to inaccuracies in turnout forecasting, since we do know that the turnout was very high. That is specifically I think that they underestimated how many people in demographics more likely to vote Trump would turnout. I think it's difficult to say until you have the final detailed counts in so you can compare polls against actuals.
posted by plonkee at 5:23 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


On everything but policy, the Dems should think to themselves: what would the GOP do? And then do that twice as hard.

I dunno. A big part of what's bad about Trump is the way that he uses the bully pulpit of the Presidency to make it seem okay to be a bully to anybody who's not a white man. It's not like he's passed a law saying "schoolchildren shall make fun of anybody who's different", but that has still been something that his presidency has helped turn in the wrong direction because of the way he acts.
posted by clawsoon at 5:24 AM on November 4 [17 favorites]


Wrong thread to derail with lols but McConnell knows to play the long game and will be quite happy to drive into a depression if it will swing back power in four years.

Donors don't like it when you intentionally tank the stock market.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:31 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


The twice-as-hard Dem version of that ought to be "schoolchildren shall mock bullies and show kindness to those who are different."

McYertle will just revert to his obstructionist playbook.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:31 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


I think you are a bit early out with this (touches wood), but one of the things that worries me about the election being this close is that Biden won't have the mandate to clean up after Trump, even if he wins. So the Republicans won't feel any need to change their ways, contrariwise, they will just amp up.

More importantly, he won't have votes in the Senate to pass anything of substance. But I bet there's all sort of folks at both the Justice Department and New York State's Attorney just itching to get to work.

Having the FBI and Intelligence community back means 1. going after Supremacist hate groups. 2. Going after Russia. 3. Investigating voting irregularities.

I'd rather have a new Voting Rights Act, though.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:35 AM on November 4 [15 favorites]


What are the sources of authoritarianism and white male hegemony in the US? What causes people to see the benefits of it, and what causes people to see the disadvantages of it?

The ideal outcome is a better Republican Party. Margaret Thatcher was right when she said that her biggest political accomplishment was the destruction of the old Labour Party and its replacement with New Labour. Americans need to do the opposite of that, somehow.
posted by clawsoon at 5:35 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


9% to count in Michigan, Trump only ahead 0.4%, winning Michigan puts Biden at 270 for the win.
posted by Slackermagee at 5:36 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


I gratefully fell asleep on the couch last night around 8:30 and decided to pack it in and go to bed shortly after. Checked the results rolling in a few times throughout the night. I'm still dismayed and broken about the vast numbers of harmful idiots in this country with voting rights, but at least I'm not all that with a stress hangover as well. This time 4 years ago I was walking to the train to go to work, bawling in public, only to be met by more people on my train also openly crying. Not there yet this year, but I'm pre-hydrating just in case.
posted by phunniemee at 5:36 AM on November 4 [20 favorites]


9% to count in Michigan, Trump only ahead 0.4%, winning Michigan puts Biden at 270 for the win.


Assuming AZ and NV also are blue, which is not a done deal yet. More worried about NV than AZ right now.
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:40 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Like, the ideal presidential election would've had Joe Biden running for the Republicans and Ilhan Omar running for the Democrats and the outcome being a tight race. How do you get there?
posted by clawsoon at 5:42 AM on November 4 [51 favorites]


So, I created this spreadsheet to get a handle on what percentage of the remaining votes to be counted that Biden needs to win in order to take Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The values I'm using for Trump and Biden votes and percent counted come from the Washington Post's page.

It's probably horribly naive, but its something. Right now it looks to me like Biden needs to take a little over 67% of the remaining vote in Pennsylvania and a little over 51% of the remaining vote in Michigan to take those states.
posted by Reverend John at 5:45 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


1. This Red Mirage shit was not good for my stomach lining

2. Trump already threatening to shut down the vote (with Pence walking it back, thank God for small comforts)

3. Incredibly, in addition to good trends in Michigan (Detroit!) and Pennsylvania (absentees!) North Carolina & Georgia are still in play. Unfortunately, so too is Nevada.

4. Wisconsin is close enough to likely go into a recount regardless of who wins the state.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:46 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


What are the sources of authoritarianism and white male hegemony in the US?

FOX News. FOX News. FOX News.

That, and leading Democrats openly mocking and abandoning the concept of a 50 state strategy for decades, leaving a vacuum for our enemies to fill.
posted by showbiz_liz at 5:47 AM on November 4 [35 favorites]


What are the sources of authoritarianism and white male hegemony in the US?

It's literally in the Constitution.

And perpetuated through history/civics classes that continue to promote myths like Virgin Continent, Manifest Destiny, Frontier Thesis, trickle-down theory.

Also, racism. Never underestimate the death grip of racism.
posted by basalganglia at 5:47 AM on November 4 [32 favorites]


Kanye West concedes
posted by clawsoon at 5:49 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]


It's probably horribly naive, but its something. Right now it looks to me like Biden needs to take a little over 67% of the remaining vote in Pennsylvania and a little over 51% of the remaining vote in Michigan to take those states.

Biden was taking 70+% of the absentee ballots in Penn so far.

Wayne County (Detroit) is the laggard in Michigan. Guess how they vote?
posted by leotrotsky at 5:49 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


And perpetuated through history/civics classes that continue to promote myths like Virgin Continent, Manifest Destiny, Frontier Thesis, trickle-down theory.

Yeah, this country was founded on white supremacy and deep material inequality. Fighting that will take a lot more than gentle reforms and hope.
posted by Ouverture at 5:50 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]


Do any polls look at naturalized citizens as a voting block? In my anecdotal experience, they tend to skew right. The rationalizations I've heard for supporting Trump are that he's a "strong leader" for America and totally hate on illegal immigrants because "We had to do things the right way and it was a long hard process and so should everyone else." I think maybe looking at naturalized citizens as a group would give more insight than latinx, who as we see are all over the place as far as their trends as a group.
posted by WeekendJen at 5:51 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]


If you're up for something lighthearted, now might be a good time to re-read the Federalist No. 68, which remains one of the most consistently amusing things that the American Founding Fathers ever wrote.

MetaFilter: I venture somewhat further, and hesitate not to affirm, that if the manner of it be not perfect, it is at least excellent.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:56 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]


Regarding the utility of polls and lack thereof, Zeynep Tufekci's twitter thread here does represent the key criticism that i've been hearing for months now
posted by cendawanita at 5:58 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


"We had to do things the right way and it was a long hard process and so should everyone else."

But also it would be important to break out where people came from and why. There are a lot of conservative Vietnamese immigrants, for example, because a lot of right-wing people left Vietnam at the end of the war. And there are right-wing Nicaraguans, etc, who emigrated when the left won. If this were 1900, immigrants would skew left-wing, be fueling radical movements and be causing an anti-anarchist panic.

Also, many people I've met who emigrated to the US from Europe are conservative - several times they've frankly said that they left because social democratic policies made it so that they couldn't get rich enough at home. (They were rich.)

I think you have to look at why people emigrate more than their emigration experience.
posted by Frowner at 6:00 AM on November 4 [47 favorites]


What are the sources of authoritarianism and white male hegemony in the US? What causes people to see the benefits of it, and what causes people to see the disadvantages of it?

Owning the libs and anti-intellectualism.

Think back to when you were a kid. The smart kids in school, the clever ones who knew all the answers - they made you feel dumb. That made you feel self-conscious. That was why you tried to bring them down a peg all the time, because where did they get off knowing all the answers to the history test? They didn't know really important stuff like how to throw a fast ball or who was the best Power Ranger. Look at 'em, those snooty kids who think they're better than us.

Age that attitude up a bit. You have these liberal elites suddenly telling us that we can't do things the way we've always done them. And for really stupid reasons - we can't keep logging because an owl might lose its habitat or something? Who the fuck cares about an owl when you've got kids to feed? Or - I grew up fine not learning about Black History when I was a kid, why are my kids suddenly getting taught all this different stuff? You're just trying to tell me that the way I've been doing things is wrong and making me feel bad about it, and you just think you're better than me.

...When you were a kid, and you felt like that, there was a whole passel of entertainment pitched to you where the hero was the underdog kid who didn't get great grades, but managed to put the egg-head smartypants kid in his place. The smartypants kid maybe got good grades, but they weren't cool. The cool kid put the smart kid in his place and was the hero because of that. And some people carry that attitude through to adulthood. Like - new Congressman Madison Cawthorn, who just won a seat from North Carolina, and celebrated his accomplishment by tweeting the message "Cry more, lib," at his opponent.

Being "cool" is valued more than being wise or intelligent. Being "cool" is valued more than being compassionate and sensitive. These are kids who never grew up.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:01 AM on November 4 [104 favorites]


As far as any monolithic idea of a Latinx voting bloc, doesn’t that end up ignoring regional animosities? I mean, the “Asian” vote gets lumped to together in the same way, but the blatant distrust or outright hatred among different nationalities/ethnicities in Asia makes me imagine any united Latinx vote must be similarly far fetched. How does the Cuban community, for example, feel towards the Mexican community? If it’s anything like the feelings of Koreans (in general) for Japanese people, well, so much for the idea of any solidarity.
posted by Ghidorah at 6:03 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


Per Michigan Sec of State Election Results page, Biden has now overtaken the lead. 93% of precincts reporting.
posted by mcstayinskool at 6:03 AM on November 4 [27 favorites]


I think you have to look at why people emigrate more than their emigration experience.

Yes, I am uncomfortable with a community as white as Metafilter trying to lump (mostly) people of color in essentialized segments as broad as "happened to naturalize recently". Country of origin, socioeconomic class, and age all play hugely important roles in political preferences.
posted by Ouverture at 6:04 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]


These are kids who never grew up.

I reject this whole analogy because it implies this is just “how things are” and can never be changed. “What can you do, they’re just jerks!” That’s lazy defeatism.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:04 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


ut one of the things that worries me about the election being this close is that Biden won't have the mandate to clean up after Trump, even if he wins.

Nope. If you win you have a mandate, period. If the winner choses not to like a winner and use their position of power to get things done, then yeah, they don't have mandate.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:05 AM on November 4 [14 favorites]


I reject this whole analogy because it implies this is just “how things are” and can never be changed. “What can you do, they’re just jerks!” That’s lazy defeatism.

Agreed and this argument ignores that the most powerful white supremacists aren't doing this to own the libs or because they are anti-intellectual, they're doing this to hold onto and grow material power.
posted by Ouverture at 6:07 AM on November 4 [17 favorites]


Biden won't have the mandate to clean up after Trump, even if he wins.

Lack of a "mandate" didn't stop either Bush II or Trump from ignoring the opinions of the people who didn't vote for them. I personally think that our system is structurally broken in the ways that it discourages compromise -- all of us have to share the country with a lot of people who disagree with us -- but deciding prematurely that you're going to compromise when you don't need to is clearly stupid.
posted by Slothrup at 6:09 AM on November 4 [19 favorites]


I reject this whole analogy because it implies this is just “how things are” and can never be changed. “What can you do, they’re just jerks!”

Oh, on the contrary. It tells you how to talk to them.

Dismiss them as jerks and dummies and you just reinforce their perception that you're the snobby smart kid, but they're the cool ones and they'll just double down on doing things to make you mad. But talk to them from a position of common ground, and finding a way for them to connect the dots on their own, and then they feel smart for having "thought of it themselves" and they feel like it was their idea and they go along with you.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:09 AM on November 4 [31 favorites]



The ideal outcome is a better Republican Party. Margaret Thatcher was right when she said that her biggest political accomplishment was the destruction of the old Labour Party and its replacement with New Labour. Americans need to do the opposite of that, somehow.


That's what the Lincoln Project people have been doing with their campaign spots. Implicitly redefining the parameters within which the right wing party should operate.
posted by ocschwar at 6:10 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


I reject this whole analogy because it implies this is just “how things are” and can never be changed. “What can you do, they’re just jerks!” That’s lazy defeatism.

Trump's base is a thing. Some people are true believers. I don't think it's lazy defeatism to acknowledge that.
posted by Fleebnork at 6:10 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


Do any polls look at naturalized citizens as a voting block? In my anecdotal experience, they tend to skew right.

My experience, too, WeekendJen. All the naturalized Indian Americans I know (except my mom) are hardline Republicans, because color/caste privilege is about equivalent to race privilege. Honestly, my parents were Republican, too, largely because a Republican Congressman helped my mom get her green card in the 1980s. (See, Republicans? You uplift immigrant voices, you win votes for life.) It was 2012

Their US born kids tend to skew left, and the massive US-born Indian baby boom of the early 2000s is about to hit voting age soon. Biden/Harris barely did any outreach to this community, despite Harris' Indian ancestry, so I'm not sure how things actually turned out.
posted by basalganglia at 6:11 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]


Educate more people, and to a higher level (e.g. university degrees), and they'll be much, much less likely to succumb to populism or, indeed, many right-wing policies.
posted by Quagkapi at 6:11 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


Also, many people I've met who emigrated to the US from Europe are conservative - several times they've frankly said that they left because social democratic policies made it so that they couldn't get rich enough at home. (They were rich.)

The USA as a global beacon of hope for I-got-mine-ism? A place where if you work hard and get a little luck on your side, you too can screw people over?
posted by clawsoon at 6:12 AM on November 4 [13 favorites]


Lack of a "mandate" didn't stop either Bush II or Trump from ignoring the opinions of the people who didn't vote for them.

I agree. Another good argument is that Democrats need to wield their power effectively to turn out their base in the next elections. They need to play hardball and to get things done at any cost. That will win more votes than it loses in the long run.

My hope is that the pandemic suppressed votes of people who recognize it as a real danger, so we are seeing things skewed red. My fear is what this election may have looked like without the incompetent response and the deaths of so many citizens.
posted by nicoffeine at 6:14 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


I lost one "it's never gonna happen" bet. Minnesota's 7th district Congressman, moderate Dem Collin Peterson, lost to his republican challenger. The reason I thought "they'll never vote out Peterson" is because, despite being a democrat, he's the longstanding chair of the House Agriculture committee. MN farmers LOVE having the chair of the Ag committee on their side. Though apparently not as much as getting the democrat out, this time around. Let's see how they feel when their soy and sugarbeet subsidies disappear.
posted by Gray Duck at 6:14 AM on November 4 [9 favorites]


These “true believers “ didn’t spawn out of nothing, they were converted. By an extraordinarily sophisticated propaganda network. It did not simply happen and it is not simply “because of the kind of person they are.” Our refusal or inability to deliver a similarly powerful counter-message is the problem. “They’re just dumb” is not the problem.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:14 AM on November 4 [55 favorites]


"Educate more people, and to a higher level (e.g. university degrees), and they'll be much, much less likely to succumb to populism or, indeed, many right-wing policies."

Bernie's flavor of populism does well with people with university degrees. Especially on Metafilter.
posted by Abacus Bean at 6:16 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


Guardian now reporting Biden leading by 0.2%, 10,000 votes in Michigan, with 94% counted.
posted by biffa at 6:16 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


But knowing a little bit about the kind of person they are can help explain why the GOP message lands as well as it does, and can help us figure out how to make our countermessage get through.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:16 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


So an example that came up recently was a bunch of progressive ballot measures passing in states like Utah, where actual progressives are anathema. That shows that it isn’t the Democrats’ POLICIES that are unpopular, it’s THE DEMOCRATS even though they theoretically offer things most of the country wants. So why don’t people vote for them? Until the Democratic Party recognizes this as resulting from a massive failure of messaging on their own part, they will continue to struggle.
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:20 AM on November 4 [30 favorites]


I think FOX News, Trump, and social media are all viruses, against which many people’s brains are vulnerable. I think they are very hard viruses to eradicate and will continue to be so.
posted by argybarg at 6:21 AM on November 4 [16 favorites]


But also it would be important to break out where people came from and why. (re naturalized citizens)

I agree. None of the naturalized citizens I know came through the refugee process or any kind of thing like that. It's all green card lottery winners, spouses of US citizens, elder parents of recently naturalized citizens, and people who were on work visas and eventually went through the whole process. But damn do they go right.
posted by WeekendJen at 6:23 AM on November 4


These “true believers “ didn’t spawn out of nothing, they were converted. By an extraordinarily sophisticated propaganda network. It did not simply happen and it is not simply “because of the kind of person they are.” Our refusal or inability to deliver a similarly powerful counter message is the problem.

Do you have family members like this? My dad is solid red right wing. He wasn't "converted", he was already there.

The machismo, owning the libs, underdog working class hero bullshit. That's my dad.

He won't be reached by any messages. If he won't listen to his own son, what hope do you think you have?

This kind of family splitting ideology stuff is everywhere.
posted by Fleebnork at 6:25 AM on November 4 [33 favorites]


I think FOX News, Trump, and social media are all viruses, against which many people’s brains are vulnerable. I think they are very hard viruses to eradicate and will continue to be so.

And yes, very much this. If we are able to scrape back some semblance of sanity in this country, we are going to have to do something about Fox News, Sinclair, and the like. I know we have the First Amendment, but there has to be some level of illegality established with regard to outright propaganda and lying to the populace. Perhaps similar to laws we have for con men, IANAL.
posted by Fleebnork at 6:28 AM on November 4 [3 favorites]


showbiz_liz, exactly! And to start with, there is a need to recognize how little most people actually care about most policies in policy terms. Trump didn't even bother with a platform. We can laugh at this and mock the people who voted for him. Or we can try to learn something about why it is working.
posted by meinvt at 6:29 AM on November 4 [8 favorites]




It's really tiring reading "we have to figure out how to make our rational arguments work better against people who make decisions based on authority and emotion" oh my god SO FUCKING TIRING.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:31 AM on November 4 [83 favorites]


Something that I've been thinking about lately, in regards to naturalized citizens, is that the entire immigration-and-naturalization process selects for having money - employers don't sponsor H1B visas except for the kind of high-skill/high-demand work that earns an upper-middle-class salary; it's over $1000 now just to apply for citizenship, and I'm sure most people spend significantly more than that on lawyers.

I've been a US permanent resident for half my life. There has been almost no time during those ~18 years when I had $1000 (or even $700, which is what it used to be) to spend on something that wasn't an absolute necessity. Even when I think of it in terms of being cheaper than renewing my green card every ten years - I just didn't have it.

Right now, I could probably swing it, but I'm uninterested in applying, partly because the loyalty oath puts me off, partly because I'm convinced they're going to find some tiny discrepancy in my application or a joking comment I've made about how great communism is and deport me.

I don't know how much the costs of immigration and naturalization affect how naturalized citizens vote. There's a perception that documented immigrants resent immigrants who didn't go through the legal immigration channels - I don't know how true that is; when I think of the relatively minor border hassles I've had to endure it feels obscene not to have solidarity with children being separated from their families. But that's just me.
posted by Jeanne at 6:31 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]


Biden hasn't even clinched and we've all relaxed enough to start infighting, guess that's a good sign?
posted by ominous_paws at 6:32 AM on November 4 [68 favorites]


It's really tiring reading "we have to figure out how to make our rational arguments work better against people who make decisions based on authority and emotion" oh my god SO FUCKING TIRING.

Yeah, why bother making an emotional appeal to voters, that’s only for fascists apparently
posted by showbiz_liz at 6:32 AM on November 4 [7 favorites]


So why don’t people vote for them?

For at least some, it's tribalism. Many, many people outside of MeFi do not read the news or read, period. There's a lot of low-information voters out there who vote purely based on whether there's an (R) - I'm related to several and have dealt with them my whole life. You might not like to hear it, but there is no converting many of these people, full-stop. It doesn't matter how great or magical your messaging is.
posted by photo guy at 6:33 AM on November 4 [5 favorites]


[Folks - we've had the "what's in the minds of trump voters/how to reach them" conversation so many many times. Please try to keep this thread for new info/updates/etc.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 6:33 AM on November 4 [25 favorites]


I really, truly don't understand America any more. Probably I never did. Is it really all about hate on the Right? I have said before that they believe in the WAR part of culture war, and...... I hate to think it's true.... But it is, isn't it? They really are waging war against 'the libs' aren't they? sigh...... God help us all. Please.
posted by Jacen at 6:34 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


Where should I look for a list of good news local results? Like Evelyn Rios Stafford in Fayetteville? And the New Mexico result soundguy99 just mentioned?
posted by brainwane at 6:34 AM on November 4


Also, does Mitch McConnell cut a deal with Biden on a stimulus? I'm betting it's a low ball like what happened in 2008, which means a laggy recovery.

If McConnell holds onto his gavel, I predict he'll do the same thing as he's done since the Obama Administration: Refuse to even consider any Democratic priorities at all (and likely none of Biden's judicial picks either). That he'll nix Democratic attempts to solidify their power such as DC and Puerto Rico statehood goes without saying.

He'll count on the so-called "liberal media" to attribute the lack of recovery stimulus and anything else beneficial to the American people as "partisan bickering" or "Congressional gridlock," and sadly, he'll probably be right. Thus he'll hope to expand the Republican presence in Congress in 2022 and hopefully make Biden a one-term president in '24.
posted by Gelatin at 6:34 AM on November 4 [23 favorites]


brainwane, Hamilton County, Ohio elected its first woman Sherriff, and she is also openly LGBTQ.
posted by cooker girl at 6:38 AM on November 4 [18 favorites]


[Also a couple deleted; please don't go after each other, I know it's stressful but please take a break if you need one.]
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 6:38 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]



Bernie's flavor of populism does well with people with university degrees. Especially on Metafilter


And working class people too!
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:38 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


I really, truly don't understand America any more. Probably I never did. Is it really all about hate on the Right?

Nah, nobody thinks of themselves as hater. My guess is that in this troubled times of COVID, they're putting themselves and their family first, so any sort "help America be equal" appeal isn't going to sell very well.

Plus, Trump got THREE Supreme Court Justices. No doubt some who voted for him don't like him, but they can't argue with that effective result.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 6:41 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


Where should I look for a list of good news local results? Like Evelyn Rios Stafford in Fayetteville? And the New Mexico result soundguy99 just mentioned?

I don't know if there's any list things yet (I found that via random Twitter), but AFAICT & IIRC from past elections The Hill has a "state watch" section/category which will note this sort of thing - here's another: Georgia, Tennessee elect first known LGBTQ members to state legislatures - and they pop up on the main page sidebar regularly.
posted by soundguy99 at 6:42 AM on November 4 [1 favorite]


Is there an Action thread for Post Election Day work?

Ex: where do I donate for local count the votes efforts in PA? WI? MI? Are there protests to attend in PA? WI? MI?

We are not yet done.
posted by jointhedance at 6:42 AM on November 4 [11 favorites]


There's a perception that documented immigrants resent immigrants who didn't go through the legal immigration channels - I don't know how true that is; when I think of the relatively minor border hassles I've had to endure it feels obscene not to have solidarity with children being separated from their families.

It feels obscene to me to not have solidarity with children being separated from their families as a human, so maybe I just don't understand political divisions.
posted by WeekendJen at 6:44 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


Here's some non-doomy election humor to lighten up the thread (forgive if posted already)
posted by thedaniel at 6:45 AM on November 4 [6 favorites]


Seen online: "If Biden wins I'm going to leave the US...."

"...to travel abroad because we'll finally have a proper COVID-19 response plan and other countries will start allowing Americans to visit again"
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 6:54 AM on November 4 [53 favorites]


A potential silver lining I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere: if the Rs keep the senate, as they surely will, we can’t do most of the stuff we need to do, which means we have no choice but to focus on what we can do, which is executive branch stuff — investigations, of corruption and companies. Meaning the entire corrupt GOP apparatus and fucking Facebook, which I would bet is largely responsible for this rising tide of absolute bugfuck crazy.

I had nightmares all night about being stuck on a cruise ship with my girlfriend while men came for one or both of us. Just repeated nightmares, all set on a cruise, for some reason (neither of us would ever be caught dead on one). I blearily sent a text to a friend, absent all context, that said “I don’t want to be stuck on a shitty cruise with these rabid psychopaths anymore.” And she was just like, “yep.” We kind of are a shitty cruise at this point — viral outbreak included. What a fucking horror movie.
posted by schadenfrau at 6:54 AM on November 4 [12 favorites]


> Bernie's flavor of populism does well with people with university degrees. Especially on Metafilter.

I was referring to correlations in essentially every country that has cared to make the measurement: generally, higher education attainment correlates with agreement with social and progressive policies. So no surprise that Bernie has his educated supporters. To directly address your point though, see this LSE study [edit: which] found that compromise is also more likely among the more educated.
posted by Quagkapi at 6:59 AM on November 4


I expect that we haven't heard WI and MI called yet because everyone is abiding by the rules they set up to keep Trump from declaring an early victory.

But barring a stunning number of red votes in Wayne county, MI and an exceedingly large turnout in those two 55-45 Trump WI counties that are outstanding, Joe Biden is the next President.

The senate will depend on where the ever loving fuck 6% of unreported precincts/results are in North Carolina and Georgia.
posted by Slackermagee at 7:02 AM on November 4 [10 favorites]


schadenfrau: "We kind of are a shitty cruise at this point — viral outbreak included. What a fucking horror movie."

Or "Gilligan's Island"
posted by chavenet at 7:05 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


"And this is the way it ends.
Not with a bang but with a WI/MI/PA."


https://twitter.com/Goodish_Will/status/1323938729342439424
posted by srboisvert at 7:05 AM on November 4 [53 favorites]


srboisvert: ""And this is the way it ends.
Not with a bang but with a WI/MI/PA."


https://twitter.com/Goodish_Will/status/1323938729342439424
"

It's apt that TS Eliot anagrams to Toilets
posted by chavenet at 7:06 AM on November 4 [4 favorites]


But barring a stunning number of red votes in Wayne county, MI and an exceedingly large turnout in those two 55-45 Trump WI counties that are outstanding, Joe Biden is the next President.

Can't ANY of those electors call it for Trump if they feel like it? I don't feel safe at all.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:06 AM on November 4


"And this is the way it ends.
Not with a bang but with a WI/MI/PA."


OMG Daadd! *groans*
posted by leotrotsky at 7:07 AM on November 4 [17 favorites]


I really, truly don't understand America any more. Probably I never did. Is it really all about hate on the Right?

Nah, nobody thinks of themselves as hater. My guess is that in this troubled times of COVID, they're putting themselves and their family first, so any sort "help America be equal" appeal isn't going to sell very well.


Plus sado-populists tend to tighten their grip on those they abuse. Only the abuser has the for certain power to control the pain. Others can try to help but only the abuser can turn it on or off.
posted by srboisvert at 7:09 AM on November 4 [2 favorites]


The thing that folks need to understand: If Trump wins, there won't be a stimulus or any serious response to the pandemic. The goal of the Trump administration is to force states into bankruptcy so that they cut education, social programs, benefits, libraries, public health, etc - especially Democratic states so that they operate more like GOP states. The only incentive Trump had to provide a stimulus or any effective pandemic response was the election, and if he wins that incentive is gone.

If Biden is president, there will probably be some kind of deal cut if only because the President and the House will keep it in the public eye - a lousy one, yes, but lousy is better than nothing. And we won't get constant propaganda about how the virus is a hoax, inject bleach, etc. Obviously it would be much the best to have won the Senate, but

AND - and this is what everyone has been missing for the whole of the election - the health institutes can be restored to relative independence. If Biden wins, CDC, FDA, NIH etc will be able to operate more or less as they normally do. That doesn't solve all our problems but it does make them more manageable.

If Biden wins, the EPA will no longer be headed by an anti-EPA zealot, NOAA will be safe, climate work in the research institutes will be safe. This stuff is invisible to most of the general public (although it should not be and there should be a LOT more government promotion of what the NIH does, etc) but it is extremely important to the underpinning operation of this country.

All along my vote has been for NIH, NOAA, EPA, etc rather than for the Democratic party qua party. Our institutes are one of the very few genuinely basically pretty good things about our government and everyone should know this.

The point is, we have bad choices, we've had bad choices all along, but if we're going to have a government at all it's worth preserving the civil service, research institutes, etc, and after anoth