New, more infectious, strain of Covid-19 circulating in the UK
December 20, 2020 7:26 AM Subscribe
Several European countries including Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands have reacted to the discovery of a fast-spreading strain of Covid-19 in England by announcing bans on flights carrying passengers from the UK, with similar plans reportedly being considered by France and Germany.
Ireland has announced a 48 hour travel ban from the UK from midnight.
The FT reports that mutations make new strain 70 per cent more transmissible but are not expected to reduce effectiveness of vaccines
A paper about the new variant identified in England has been published by genomics researchers who say that the first two samples were recorded on 20 September in Kent. More than 1,620 samples had been found in England’s south-east by 15 December.
Ireland has announced a 48 hour travel ban from the UK from midnight.
The FT reports that mutations make new strain 70 per cent more transmissible but are not expected to reduce effectiveness of vaccines
A paper about the new variant identified in England has been published by genomics researchers who say that the first two samples were recorded on 20 September in Kent. More than 1,620 samples had been found in England’s south-east by 15 December.
Ireland also. It's not going to be very effective if Northern Ireland doesn't also ban flights and ferries from GB, because the Republic absolutely will not do that. I'm doubtful NI will ban British travel, but we can each only do what we can do.
posted by DarlingBri at 7:38 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by DarlingBri at 7:38 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Of course this year is going to cap itself off with COVID-20. Of course. How could it be otherwise.
posted by mhoye at 7:47 AM on December 20, 2020 [21 favorites]
posted by mhoye at 7:47 AM on December 20, 2020 [21 favorites]
I watched Hancock on the tv and he looked kind of freaked out.
posted by carter at 8:31 AM on December 20, 2020
posted by carter at 8:31 AM on December 20, 2020
Fur fuck's sake. This is like a really bad movie. I mean just as the vaccine is rolling out worldwide?
posted by bluesky43 at 8:31 AM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 8:31 AM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
I'm waiting for Tier 5: "Sit down, Stay there"...........
“All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. ” - Blaise Pascal, 1654.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:33 AM on December 20, 2020 [123 favorites]
“All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone. ” - Blaise Pascal, 1654.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:33 AM on December 20, 2020 [123 favorites]
Speaking of freak-outs, if anyone hasn't seen it yet, I highly recommend the original Belgian viral infection thriller series "Cordon."
posted by PhineasGage at 8:36 AM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 8:36 AM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
Right wing populists have been an utter fucking liability during this entire crisis. Sadly, this experience won't ever dampen people's enthusiasm for letting them near the levers of power.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:47 AM on December 20, 2020 [31 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:47 AM on December 20, 2020 [31 favorites]
Huh. I wonder if any immunity to the original strain will work for the new one, or will we need another vaccine?
On a morepersonal selfish note, I passed my hairdresser's yesterday and thought, good, they're open, I can finally get my hair cut. But now, with tier bloody 4 they will be closed again. I haven't had anything done to it since last October and now I look as if I have been living in a hedge.
posted by Fuchsoid at 8:48 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
On a more
posted by Fuchsoid at 8:48 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Huh. I wonder if any immunity to the original strain will work for the new one, or will we need another vaccine?
From the post's original framing:
The FT reports that mutations make new strain 70 per cent more transmissible but are not expected to reduce effectiveness of vaccines
posted by philip-random at 9:02 AM on December 20, 2020 [13 favorites]
It's worth noting that that the "70% more transmissible" is the upper bound of a fairly wide estimate, i.e. the most pessimistic interpretation of what's currently quite sparse data.
Also that, as noted in the FT article and others, it's not expected to affect vaccine efficiency. If it does, already knowing the sequence of the new variant means that changing the sequence of the mRNA vaccine to match is not much more involved than a few keystrokes in whatever machine is running their synthesis reactions (the Oxford/AZ adenovirus-based vaccine could be similarly simple, depending how they're growing their adenovirus stocks; I haven't looked into their production chain). Like the 'flu vaccine changing every year, now we have the principle established, creating small variants on the vaccine will be a logistical headache, but it absolutely isn't a case of going back to square one with proof-of-principle, safety trials, etc.
It's certainly something to be concerned about, and is extremely dispiriting given all the difficulties and harms already caused by lockdown, that we're all desperate to have a break from. But from what we know so far, while it's bad news it's not the cataclysm that some outlets are reporting it as. We need to be even more careful, but the vaccines continue to roll out, and are still expected to work.
As an aside, the UK's covid genomics consortium is genuinely world-leading; they rapidly sequence, analyse, and publish the genomes of an astonishingly high proportion of patients' virus samples (I've seen 10% quoted), much higher than any other country. So while limiting travel from the UK to other countries is a sensible idea based on what we know now, this variant being discovered first in the UK could very well be just due to more thorough surveillance here.
I don't want to minimise concerning news, but it's easy to look at Another Damn Thing after an exhausting year and start catastrophising.
posted by metaBugs at 9:05 AM on December 20, 2020 [71 favorites]
Also that, as noted in the FT article and others, it's not expected to affect vaccine efficiency. If it does, already knowing the sequence of the new variant means that changing the sequence of the mRNA vaccine to match is not much more involved than a few keystrokes in whatever machine is running their synthesis reactions (the Oxford/AZ adenovirus-based vaccine could be similarly simple, depending how they're growing their adenovirus stocks; I haven't looked into their production chain). Like the 'flu vaccine changing every year, now we have the principle established, creating small variants on the vaccine will be a logistical headache, but it absolutely isn't a case of going back to square one with proof-of-principle, safety trials, etc.
It's certainly something to be concerned about, and is extremely dispiriting given all the difficulties and harms already caused by lockdown, that we're all desperate to have a break from. But from what we know so far, while it's bad news it's not the cataclysm that some outlets are reporting it as. We need to be even more careful, but the vaccines continue to roll out, and are still expected to work.
As an aside, the UK's covid genomics consortium is genuinely world-leading; they rapidly sequence, analyse, and publish the genomes of an astonishingly high proportion of patients' virus samples (I've seen 10% quoted), much higher than any other country. So while limiting travel from the UK to other countries is a sensible idea based on what we know now, this variant being discovered first in the UK could very well be just due to more thorough surveillance here.
I don't want to minimise concerning news, but it's easy to look at Another Damn Thing after an exhausting year and start catastrophising.
posted by metaBugs at 9:05 AM on December 20, 2020 [71 favorites]
The brief summary from NERVTAG mentions an an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93, Boris Johnson only mentioned the lower figure in his announcement yesterday.
The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) metioned by metaBugs has put up short history of the project so far. I would have made a proper post about it but I am involved in a (very) minor way.
posted by antiwiggle at 9:28 AM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) metioned by metaBugs has put up short history of the project so far. I would have made a proper post about it but I am involved in a (very) minor way.
posted by antiwiggle at 9:28 AM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
The “70% more transmissible” aspect will provide lots of ammunition for the plandemic true believers to talk about a new product rollout for the holiday season.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:35 AM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:35 AM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
I think some may be freaking out because Covid is plenty fucking contagious already. We're in wave 2 over here in Sweden and the government literally does not have the power to shut down the popular holiday sales that run between 26 December and 31 December or so. The government has strongly urged retailers to cancel the sales but cannot enforce that recommendation legally in any way. Businesses have more of a safety net here than in the US but they have lost lots of money and many people have lost jobs, etc. So of course retailers may well do the sales anyway, which is crazy pants.
The pandemic is not under control here yet so the idea that a more infectious version may be headed this way just sucks so hard. (Condolences to all of us everywhere dealing with people who do not take the pandemic as seriously as they should.) The nation is lucky in that it appears Sweden will be getting a reasonable amount of vaccine soonish, which is a wonderful thing.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:41 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
The pandemic is not under control here yet so the idea that a more infectious version may be headed this way just sucks so hard. (Condolences to all of us everywhere dealing with people who do not take the pandemic as seriously as they should.) The nation is lucky in that it appears Sweden will be getting a reasonable amount of vaccine soonish, which is a wonderful thing.
posted by Bella Donna at 9:41 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
"I watched Hancock on the tv and he looked kind of freaked out."
To be fair that's how he normally looks.
posted by Webbster at 9:42 AM on December 20, 2020 [9 favorites]
To be fair that's how he normally looks.
posted by Webbster at 9:42 AM on December 20, 2020 [9 favorites]
Right now there is confusion in Europe about whether this new variant in the UK cited by Johnson as the reason for cancelling Christmas is actually a significant danger, or being used as political cover to reverse course on the UK's planned Christmas lockdown easing.
Update: @EUCOpresident's cabinet is convening an emergency video call with EU national governments today "to share information at capitals level on the latest development on the virus variant and the measures related to it," according to an EU official.
If it turns out that the British prime minister exaggerated the seriousness of this new #COVID19 strain yesterday in order to give himself political cover to reverse his #Christmas lockdown easing policy, EU national governments are going to be furious.(Journalist Dave Keating on Twitter)
posted by roolya_boolya at 9:50 AM on December 20, 2020 [8 favorites]
Update: @EUCOpresident's cabinet is convening an emergency video call with EU national governments today "to share information at capitals level on the latest development on the virus variant and the measures related to it," according to an EU official.
If it turns out that the British prime minister exaggerated the seriousness of this new #COVID19 strain yesterday in order to give himself political cover to reverse his #Christmas lockdown easing policy, EU national governments are going to be furious.(Journalist Dave Keating on Twitter)
posted by roolya_boolya at 9:50 AM on December 20, 2020 [8 favorites]
EU national governments are going to be furious.
I actually laughed out loud at this. Who thought Johnson and his party were trustworthy and reliable before?
posted by mhoye at 9:59 AM on December 20, 2020 [23 favorites]
I actually laughed out loud at this. Who thought Johnson and his party were trustworthy and reliable before?
posted by mhoye at 9:59 AM on December 20, 2020 [23 favorites]
Also in South Africa, as shown in item 1C here: https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.promedmail.org&source=gmail-imap&ust=1609091148000000&usg=AOvVaw3UgPx_ykq5iAJ-m77sb7GL
posted by wenestvedt at 10:00 AM on December 20, 2020
posted by wenestvedt at 10:00 AM on December 20, 2020
Why would the UK conservative government lie that the new strain is more virulent? Going to Tier 4 in London is not popular with the people who had been looking forward to a few days of “normal act” and visiting family, will significantly harm the UK economy, and makes the government look unprepared. So wh at is the upside for the Government is declaring a false emergency? (Not snarky, genuinely confused).
posted by saucysault at 10:03 AM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by saucysault at 10:03 AM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
Twitter thread.
posted by joeyh at 10:05 AM on December 20, 2020
N501Y was first observed back in April (#CoVGLUE) in a Brazilian isolate & in Australia over June. In recent times it’s been observed in S Africa, UK and DNK.I don't know how reliable this is. It links to some cites, but I've never seen any verified info about covid in DNK before.
posted by joeyh at 10:05 AM on December 20, 2020
I can understand (and share) the disbelief about anything this government, and Johnson in particular, says.
However there is (IMO) reasonable circumstantial evidence (leave the science to one side) that this variant is much more transmissible. Infections went up at the tail end of the UK lockdown—before lockdown was raised, And infections went up in the Tier 3 areas where the new variant is prevalent, when these restrictions were holding or reducing infection rates in other areas in Tier 3.
People were offering up all sorts of explanations as to why this was the case (lockdown fatigue, housing density, deprivation etc) but the new variant seems like the best / Occamist explanation.
If true, it looks like tier 3 barely takes the edge off the infection, so I think the fear in the eyes of the politicians is well justified.
posted by dudleian at 10:06 AM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
However there is (IMO) reasonable circumstantial evidence (leave the science to one side) that this variant is much more transmissible. Infections went up at the tail end of the UK lockdown—before lockdown was raised, And infections went up in the Tier 3 areas where the new variant is prevalent, when these restrictions were holding or reducing infection rates in other areas in Tier 3.
People were offering up all sorts of explanations as to why this was the case (lockdown fatigue, housing density, deprivation etc) but the new variant seems like the best / Occamist explanation.
If true, it looks like tier 3 barely takes the edge off the infection, so I think the fear in the eyes of the politicians is well justified.
posted by dudleian at 10:06 AM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
Why would the UK conservative government lie that the new strain is more virulent?
I think what is being mooted is that the stricter lockdown was needed because of the general situation and the new strain provides political cover for imposing the lockdown and the policy failures that led to it.
It's quite an indictment of the UK government that it's sadly credible that they might be using such tactics, even if in fact they are not.
posted by roolya_boolya at 10:11 AM on December 20, 2020 [16 favorites]
I think what is being mooted is that the stricter lockdown was needed because of the general situation and the new strain provides political cover for imposing the lockdown and the policy failures that led to it.
It's quite an indictment of the UK government that it's sadly credible that they might be using such tactics, even if in fact they are not.
posted by roolya_boolya at 10:11 AM on December 20, 2020 [16 favorites]
It's worth noting that that the "70% more transmissible" is the upper bound of a fairly wide estimate, i.e. the most pessimistic interpretation of what's currently quite sparse data.
That's ... not what the NERVTAG summary antiwiggle posted says though? The 71% figure there is the midpoint of a 95%-confidence interval.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 10:19 AM on December 20, 2020 [7 favorites]
That's ... not what the NERVTAG summary antiwiggle posted says though? The 71% figure there is the midpoint of a 95%-confidence interval.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 10:19 AM on December 20, 2020 [7 favorites]
FWIW I just listened to the This Week in Virology episode that discusses this development (TWIV 696, released today and recorded maybe Friday; discussion of the the variant etc starts at 55:29).
They are very, very dubious that this particular variant of the virus has made any significant difference in the virus's behavior or transmissibility.
Minor changes in the virus's amino acid sequences happen all the time. That is how viruses work. The question is whether the amino acid changes make any difference in the biological characteristics of the virus. Per TWIV, there is literally zero evidence that these particular amino acid changes are biologically significant in any way. Like, there are experiments that can be done to determine biologically significant differences and those experiments have not been done yet. So any chatter about the biological differences due to this variant is pure speculation based on literally zero data.
Additionally, there is little reason to believe that that the amino acid differences seen here WILL lead to actual biologically significant differences in the virus. Many of these types of variants have been cataloged already and none of them are biologically significant.
So why has this variant seemingly spread so quickly in one particular region?
Most likely because (by pure chance) this variant was associated with a particular superspreader event, or perhaps a few in sequence.
It's more of a consequence of how this virus typically spreads--via superspreader events whereby everyone in the event ends up with the same particular virus variant the initial case happened to have--rather than some magic new biological characteristic of this particular variant.
posted by flug at 10:22 AM on December 20, 2020 [44 favorites]
They are very, very dubious that this particular variant of the virus has made any significant difference in the virus's behavior or transmissibility.
Minor changes in the virus's amino acid sequences happen all the time. That is how viruses work. The question is whether the amino acid changes make any difference in the biological characteristics of the virus. Per TWIV, there is literally zero evidence that these particular amino acid changes are biologically significant in any way. Like, there are experiments that can be done to determine biologically significant differences and those experiments have not been done yet. So any chatter about the biological differences due to this variant is pure speculation based on literally zero data.
Additionally, there is little reason to believe that that the amino acid differences seen here WILL lead to actual biologically significant differences in the virus. Many of these types of variants have been cataloged already and none of them are biologically significant.
So why has this variant seemingly spread so quickly in one particular region?
Most likely because (by pure chance) this variant was associated with a particular superspreader event, or perhaps a few in sequence.
It's more of a consequence of how this virus typically spreads--via superspreader events whereby everyone in the event ends up with the same particular virus variant the initial case happened to have--rather than some magic new biological characteristic of this particular variant.
posted by flug at 10:22 AM on December 20, 2020 [44 favorites]
People were offering up all sorts of explanations as to why this was the case (lockdown fatigue, housing density, deprivation etc) but the new variant seems like the best / Occamist explanation.
Respectfully, "there has been a mutation in the virus that has dramatically increased its transmissibility during this otherwise-effective isolation period" seems significantly less plausible than "a bunch of assholes went to a bunch of parties".
Put differently, don't waste your time fretting about Occam's razor when Hanlon's is already at your throat.
posted by mhoye at 10:32 AM on December 20, 2020 [24 favorites]
Respectfully, "there has been a mutation in the virus that has dramatically increased its transmissibility during this otherwise-effective isolation period" seems significantly less plausible than "a bunch of assholes went to a bunch of parties".
Put differently, don't waste your time fretting about Occam's razor when Hanlon's is already at your throat.
posted by mhoye at 10:32 AM on December 20, 2020 [24 favorites]
>That's ... not what the NERVTAG summary antiwiggle posted says though? The 71% figure there is the midpoint of a 95%-confidence interval.
Huh, you're right. My apologies, the source I saw that is normally very reliable but I should've checked up myself.
posted by metaBugs at 10:36 AM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
Huh, you're right. My apologies, the source I saw that is normally very reliable but I should've checked up myself.
posted by metaBugs at 10:36 AM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
From NYT just now: "the estimate of greater transmissibility ... is based on modeling and has not been confirmed in lab experiments."
posted by PhineasGage at 10:43 AM on December 20, 2020 [8 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 10:43 AM on December 20, 2020 [8 favorites]
I'm not convinced that the partying proclivities of Kent's foremost assholes have changed very much either, though
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 11:05 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 11:05 AM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Question for any microbiologists/virologists/etc: since the Pfizer & Moderna mRNA vaccines are (as I understand it) based on the genetic sequence for only the spike protein, this mutation wouldn’t compromise the efficacy of those vaccines unless there was a significant change to that specific protein, correct? Or is there an implied subtext that the potential increase in transmission rates is specifically due to a change in the spike protein?
posted by Ryvar at 11:23 AM on December 20, 2020
posted by Ryvar at 11:23 AM on December 20, 2020
Scotland has also closed the borders, and we're looking at a three week lockdown after Christmas, with the schools going back remotely to begin with.
Even if this new variant isn't the threat we thought, it can't hurt to combat some of the Christmas spread. I feel sorry for the businesses though, hopefully this will get our numbers down low enough to hold us till the vaccine is more widespread.
posted by stillnocturnal at 11:29 AM on December 20, 2020
Even if this new variant isn't the threat we thought, it can't hurt to combat some of the Christmas spread. I feel sorry for the businesses though, hopefully this will get our numbers down low enough to hold us till the vaccine is more widespread.
posted by stillnocturnal at 11:29 AM on December 20, 2020
The latest edition of This week in Virology addresses the new variant (starting around 55 minutes). There's no evidence to suggest that this new variant behaves any differently from other variants or that it's more transmissible. So the increase in cases is likely due to other reasons and they just happen to be involving this new variant. The UK government would rather blame the increase in cases on a mutation than on their policies. [Sorry, Flug, on edit just noticed you had already said this!]
posted by jamespake at 11:33 AM on December 20, 2020 [9 favorites]
posted by jamespake at 11:33 AM on December 20, 2020 [9 favorites]
Actually nevermind, PhineasGage’s NYTimes link specifically states (about halfway down) that the concern is in fact spike protein mutations and describes mitigating factors / why this is more likely a “potentially update the vaccine every few years” scenario. Thanks for the link!
posted by Ryvar at 11:33 AM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by Ryvar at 11:33 AM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
potentially update the vaccine every few years
Isn't this basically what happened with the 1918 flu, and why we now have flu season? We may be looking at covid-season for a long time. Get used to wearing masks.
posted by mrgoat at 11:56 AM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
Isn't this basically what happened with the 1918 flu, and why we now have flu season? We may be looking at covid-season for a long time. Get used to wearing masks.
posted by mrgoat at 11:56 AM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
It originated in Kent, you say? The heartland of Faragism, which voted Leave by a huge margin and is now leopardfacing about going from the Garden Of England to the Lorry Park Of England? As such, the new strain should hitherto be known as the Gammon Flu.
posted by acb at 12:00 PM on December 20, 2020 [10 favorites]
posted by acb at 12:00 PM on December 20, 2020 [10 favorites]
London's numbers have jumped 87% in a week. In a WEEK. I really hope that this thing is less harmful as well as more contagious because Jesus fucking Christ it's going to be a shitshow otherwise.
posted by fight or flight at 12:01 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 12:01 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Mod note: Comment removed - friendly reminder that there are some curse words that are a less big deal in the UK than they are in the US and you shouldn't use them here on MetaFilter.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 12:06 PM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 12:06 PM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
*England's numbers, not London's numbers as per my last comment
I've been keeping up with it thanks to /r/CoronavirusUK's excellent number trackers, here's their data for England today:
posted by fight or flight at 12:10 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
I've been keeping up with it thanks to /r/CoronavirusUK's excellent number trackers, here's their data for England today:
Deaths Within 28 Days of a Positive Test: 241.Something has definitely changed in the way this thing is spreading, so I don't doubt that the new strain is out there.
Number of Positive Cases: 32,155. (Last Saturday: 17,164, an increase of 87.34%.)
Number of Cases by Region:
East Midlands: 1,654 cases, 1,157 yesterday.
East of England: 4,646 cases, 3,521 yesterday.
London: 11,577 cases, 6,931 yesterday.
North East: 586 cases, 531 yesterday.
North West: 1,945 cases, 1,703 yesterday.
South East: 7,120 cases, 4,766 yesterday.
South West: 860 cases, 1,103 yesterday.
West Midlands: 2,448 cases, 1,740 yesterday.
Yorkshire and the Humber: 1,141 cases, 1,114 yesterday.
posted by fight or flight at 12:10 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
I'm not a virologist but from listening to TWIV, I think there is no reason to think this new variant is more resistant to the vaccine, more transmissible, or different in any other meaningful way from normal SARS-CoV-2. The mutations that cause this variant don't affect the spike protein which is the main target of most of the vaccines. I think that because the spike protein has to be a very specific sequence in order to function the way it does, any mutation is likely to stop it working, but perhaps there is the possibility that a rare mutation might produce a spike protein which still functioned but which wasn't recognized by vaccine induced antibodies. Luckily, it doesn't look like this is such a variant. TWIV makes a point of distinguishing between a variant and a strain. A strain is the more serious variation because it involves a change in biological function. The current variant is not such a variation.
It doesn't need a new strain to explain the rise in cases. There has been no severe lockdown in the UK for quite a while, as schools, universities, shops, bars, and restaurants have all remained open in some capacity for most of the time. We could predict there would be a spike in cases in mid-December following a number of events, including Christmas shopping, parties, and the return of university students which took place between 3-9 December. Also, government announcements of different lockdown restrictions have coincided with mass gatherings such as those outside pubs after the introduction of 10pm closing times, or the mass exodus from London train stations between the announcement of tier 4 lockdown in London at 4pm yesterday and its introduction 8 hours later.
posted by jamespake at 12:28 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
It doesn't need a new strain to explain the rise in cases. There has been no severe lockdown in the UK for quite a while, as schools, universities, shops, bars, and restaurants have all remained open in some capacity for most of the time. We could predict there would be a spike in cases in mid-December following a number of events, including Christmas shopping, parties, and the return of university students which took place between 3-9 December. Also, government announcements of different lockdown restrictions have coincided with mass gatherings such as those outside pubs after the introduction of 10pm closing times, or the mass exodus from London train stations between the announcement of tier 4 lockdown in London at 4pm yesterday and its introduction 8 hours later.
posted by jamespake at 12:28 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
It doesn't need a new strain to explain the rise in cases. There has been no severe lockdown in the UK for quite a while, as schools, universities, shops, bars, and restaurants have all remained open in some capacity for most of the time.
I've been watching the numbers of positive cases and hospital admissions pretty consistently over the last few months, and even during the uptick of cases at the beginning of November before the first semi-lockdown it was only rising 1k or so a day, definitely trending upwards but fairly steadily. This is pretty unprecedented and it's easy to see why government ministers took drastic action basically overnight.
I understand not wanting to scare people, but let's not deny reality when it's right there in the numbers.
posted by fight or flight at 12:34 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
I've been watching the numbers of positive cases and hospital admissions pretty consistently over the last few months, and even during the uptick of cases at the beginning of November before the first semi-lockdown it was only rising 1k or so a day, definitely trending upwards but fairly steadily. This is pretty unprecedented and it's easy to see why government ministers took drastic action basically overnight.
I understand not wanting to scare people, but let's not deny reality when it's right there in the numbers.
posted by fight or flight at 12:34 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
Exponential growth is scary. Early in the outbreak, before people were taking precautions, coronavirus cases were doubling every two or three days in a lot of places. That's somewhere around 400% increases every week. An 87% increase in one week is well within the range of outcomes of people taking insufficient precautions, no faster spreading mutation needed.
posted by Zalzidrax at 12:50 PM on December 20, 2020 [13 favorites]
posted by Zalzidrax at 12:50 PM on December 20, 2020 [13 favorites]
A curve going from 1K to 2K to 4K to 8K a day does not need a new virus strain. That's the nature of expontential growth.
posted by joeyh at 12:51 PM on December 20, 2020 [14 favorites]
posted by joeyh at 12:51 PM on December 20, 2020 [14 favorites]
I understand not wanting to scare people, but let's not deny reality when it's right there in the numbers.
I wasn't trying to make it less scary, I think it's plenty scary enough without the need for new strains. I agree that the government needed to take action, but it wouldn't have had to be so drastic if they had acted better earlier. And the rise in case numbers is entirely explainable without recourse to dodgy science.
I think Boris Johnson is trying to blame the results of his government's poor decisions on a mutant virus in the same way that he blamed the A level f***up on a mutant algorithm.
posted by jamespake at 12:57 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
I wasn't trying to make it less scary, I think it's plenty scary enough without the need for new strains. I agree that the government needed to take action, but it wouldn't have had to be so drastic if they had acted better earlier. And the rise in case numbers is entirely explainable without recourse to dodgy science.
I think Boris Johnson is trying to blame the results of his government's poor decisions on a mutant virus in the same way that he blamed the A level f***up on a mutant algorithm.
posted by jamespake at 12:57 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
is leopardfacing a...thing? or a typo? thx
posted by supermedusa at 1:01 PM on December 20, 2020
posted by supermedusa at 1:01 PM on December 20, 2020
That's the nature of expontential growth.
I mean at this point if we have scientific experts saying that the new strain is more transmissible + the new strain clearly evident in the places in the UK which are spiking hard + fast exponential growth, I'm going to believe that there might be a possibility that there is a new strain and it is serious. I'm reassured by the fact that it doesn't look like it will impact the vaccine, but you'd better believe I'm glad my local area is Tier 4 and I will be personally locking down as hard as we did in March/April.
My borough was averaging 70/80 cases a day through October, headed into the low 100s in November, and then has gone from 150 cases to 438 cases in the space of 5 days. Nothing else has changed -- people around here have been barely respecting lockdown since the end of the summer. If anything things have been locked down further during November, so numbers should have been falling. It can't be explained by anything else except for the fact that, as stated above, there is a new strain that's clearly working its way through the population.
posted by fight or flight at 1:19 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
I mean at this point if we have scientific experts saying that the new strain is more transmissible + the new strain clearly evident in the places in the UK which are spiking hard + fast exponential growth, I'm going to believe that there might be a possibility that there is a new strain and it is serious. I'm reassured by the fact that it doesn't look like it will impact the vaccine, but you'd better believe I'm glad my local area is Tier 4 and I will be personally locking down as hard as we did in March/April.
My borough was averaging 70/80 cases a day through October, headed into the low 100s in November, and then has gone from 150 cases to 438 cases in the space of 5 days. Nothing else has changed -- people around here have been barely respecting lockdown since the end of the summer. If anything things have been locked down further during November, so numbers should have been falling. It can't be explained by anything else except for the fact that, as stated above, there is a new strain that's clearly working its way through the population.
posted by fight or flight at 1:19 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Nothing else has changed -- people around here have been barely respecting lockdown since the end of the summer.
Has the weather changed? more indoor gatherings, less outdoor dinning, windows closed on office buildings that may have been open in the summer/fall? Or could back to school be contributing?
Any of those things combined with a mutation that just makes it ever so slightly infectious could cause runaway growth. The tricky thing with exponential growth is its hard to stop once it really gets going. What if the mutation makes you feel less sick in the beginning so you go out more without realizing you are infectious?
Or to put the tin foil hat on, what if the government has been slow in reporting the numbers and it is now only getting so bad that they can't help report on it.
Heck I will happily take the more infectious story and political cover if it helps support people staying home. let just make sure the full story gets disclosed once its under control.
posted by CostcoCultist at 1:31 PM on December 20, 2020
Has the weather changed? more indoor gatherings, less outdoor dinning, windows closed on office buildings that may have been open in the summer/fall? Or could back to school be contributing?
Any of those things combined with a mutation that just makes it ever so slightly infectious could cause runaway growth. The tricky thing with exponential growth is its hard to stop once it really gets going. What if the mutation makes you feel less sick in the beginning so you go out more without realizing you are infectious?
Or to put the tin foil hat on, what if the government has been slow in reporting the numbers and it is now only getting so bad that they can't help report on it.
Heck I will happily take the more infectious story and political cover if it helps support people staying home. let just make sure the full story gets disclosed once its under control.
posted by CostcoCultist at 1:31 PM on December 20, 2020
I mean at this point if we have scientific experts saying that the new strain is more transmissible
Chris Witty is not a randomized controlled trial. Seriously, he showed a graph that demonstrated that the new variant was a bigger proportion of new cases than it used to be. That is not evidence that it is more transmissible. There is no such evidence at the moment.
posted by jamespake at 1:34 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
Chris Witty is not a randomized controlled trial. Seriously, he showed a graph that demonstrated that the new variant was a bigger proportion of new cases than it used to be. That is not evidence that it is more transmissible. There is no such evidence at the moment.
posted by jamespake at 1:34 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
My story in the south west is the counter-part to fight or flight's: everyone round here has been following a fairly moderate lockdown moderately well, just like how it sounds London is. And the result is that cases have gone down, and Bristol and North Somerset went down from Tier 3 to Tier 2.
I feel like that's a moderately decent control. Bristol's only a large-midsize city, but in terms of wealth and demographics, it's arguably as good a match for London as the conurbations with >1 million people.
posted by ambrosen at 1:35 PM on December 20, 2020
I feel like that's a moderately decent control. Bristol's only a large-midsize city, but in terms of wealth and demographics, it's arguably as good a match for London as the conurbations with >1 million people.
posted by ambrosen at 1:35 PM on December 20, 2020
Has the weather changed? more indoor gatherings, less outdoor dinning, windows closed on office buildings that may have been open in the summer/fall? Or could back to school be contributing?
Marginally. It's gotten colder but before that it was raining constantly, so it's not as if people were spending a lot of time outside in October.
Schools have definitely been contributing to spread, but as I said, they've been open since September and the numbers have stayed pretty steady, rising slowly over the space of months. These increases aren't steady. My partner works in retail in the area and his store and what he's seen every day has been slightly busier but not enough to explain the fact that we're getting close to March/April numbers in our hospitals right now.
Or to put the tin foil hat on, what if the government has been slow in reporting the numbers and it is now only getting so bad that they can't help report on it.
I don't think this is as plausible as people want it to be. However I do think it's possible that the government knew about the strain when it supposedly first cropped up in September and delayed lockdowns to try to keep people working/in school/buying Christmas presents.
posted by fight or flight at 1:35 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
Marginally. It's gotten colder but before that it was raining constantly, so it's not as if people were spending a lot of time outside in October.
Schools have definitely been contributing to spread, but as I said, they've been open since September and the numbers have stayed pretty steady, rising slowly over the space of months. These increases aren't steady. My partner works in retail in the area and his store and what he's seen every day has been slightly busier but not enough to explain the fact that we're getting close to March/April numbers in our hospitals right now.
Or to put the tin foil hat on, what if the government has been slow in reporting the numbers and it is now only getting so bad that they can't help report on it.
I don't think this is as plausible as people want it to be. However I do think it's possible that the government knew about the strain when it supposedly first cropped up in September and delayed lockdowns to try to keep people working/in school/buying Christmas presents.
posted by fight or flight at 1:35 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
I couldn't care less what Boris Johnson's government thinks is reality, the fact is scientists are saying the new virus is of concern and are encouraging restrictions out of precaution. Checking NBC News, which quotes several different UK medical and university scientists. Clearly not all of those scientists base their opinions solely on a virology blog.
posted by polymodus at 1:36 PM on December 20, 2020 [12 favorites]
posted by polymodus at 1:36 PM on December 20, 2020 [12 favorites]
That is not evidence that it is more transmissible. There is no such evidence at the moment.
Surely the evidence is in the fact that the places where they have identified most of the new strain of the virus are experiencing massive, ongoing spikes in cases at a point when other places which don't have so much of the strain are stable or falling. To coin a phrase, there's a big mutant elephant in the room here.
posted by fight or flight at 1:41 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
Surely the evidence is in the fact that the places where they have identified most of the new strain of the virus are experiencing massive, ongoing spikes in cases at a point when other places which don't have so much of the strain are stable or falling. To coin a phrase, there's a big mutant elephant in the room here.
posted by fight or flight at 1:41 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
Hi Polymodus, the thing is that most scientists aren't saying that about the new variant. Hi fight or flight, that's a really poor statistical sample, not a big mutant elephant.
posted by jamespake at 1:46 PM on December 20, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by jamespake at 1:46 PM on December 20, 2020 [7 favorites]
Hi, jamespake, I will accept your increasingly condescending advice, but will continue to reserve my responses to this very real situation to those advised by actual scientists working in the UK rather than US-based virologists and science journalists drumming up an audience for their podcast/YouTube channel. I hope you're doing the same.
posted by fight or flight at 1:56 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 1:56 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
It doesn't matter what we think about this new variant, the advice is the same:
Wear a mask
Wash your hands
Keep your distance
Avoid unnecessary contact
Get a vaccine as soon as you can
posted by jamespake at 1:59 PM on December 20, 2020 [7 favorites]
Wear a mask
Wash your hands
Keep your distance
Avoid unnecessary contact
Get a vaccine as soon as you can
posted by jamespake at 1:59 PM on December 20, 2020 [7 favorites]
And next year... let's fucking party!!!!!
posted by jamespake at 1:59 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by jamespake at 1:59 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
About mass vaccination. You'd expect it to start in the next few months but here in the Netherlands, it is such a shitshow that for most people it'll only start in August (and will take a very long time to reach everyone).
This is only here though. I dont want to freak out people. For instance Germany seems well prepared.
I initially thought Dutch government did a lot of things right this pandemic. That thought went out the window when they fucked up the testing (there wasn't enough test capacity when the second wave hit). Had high hopes they learned from that mistake but apparantly not.
posted by Kosmob0t at 2:01 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
This is only here though. I dont want to freak out people. For instance Germany seems well prepared.
I initially thought Dutch government did a lot of things right this pandemic. That thought went out the window when they fucked up the testing (there wasn't enough test capacity when the second wave hit). Had high hopes they learned from that mistake but apparantly not.
posted by Kosmob0t at 2:01 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
Don't worry Kosmob0t, I'm sure it will be available before then.
posted by jamespake at 2:05 PM on December 20, 2020
posted by jamespake at 2:05 PM on December 20, 2020
Hi Polymodus, the thing is that most scientists aren't saying that about the new variant.
So what? Saying what? The ones speaking to the public are saying that the new mutation is of concern and being looked at, paraphrasing the NBC piece. And in other news, just today a number of EU governments are announcing new restrictions. Clearly they are not reading Virology Blog; knowing that this is developing news and no YouTube video from Friday can do it justice, let's see the BBC news literally 2 hours ago quoting UK scientists:
Why is this variant causing concern? Three things are coming together that mean it is attracting attention:
- It is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus
- It has mutations that affect part of the virus likely to be important
- Some of those mutations have already been shown in the lab to increase the ability of the virus to infect cells
- All of these come together to build a case for a virus that can spread more easily.
However, we do not have absolute certainty. New strains can become more common simply by being in the right place at the right time - such as London, which had only tier two restrictions until recently.
But already the justification for tier four restrictions is in part to reduce the spread of the variant.
"Laboratory experiments are required, but do you want to wait weeks or months [to see the results and take action to limit the spread]? Probably not in these circumstances," Prof Nick Loman, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium, told me.
These are eminently reasonable points to make regarding a good-faith justification of more stringent state measures across the EU given new information. Sometimes it's science wonks (bloggers more interested in technical hairsplitting about what exactly is transmissibility) that lose the forest for the trees.
posted by polymodus at 2:08 PM on December 20, 2020 [31 favorites]
So what? Saying what? The ones speaking to the public are saying that the new mutation is of concern and being looked at, paraphrasing the NBC piece. And in other news, just today a number of EU governments are announcing new restrictions. Clearly they are not reading Virology Blog; knowing that this is developing news and no YouTube video from Friday can do it justice, let's see the BBC news literally 2 hours ago quoting UK scientists:
Why is this variant causing concern? Three things are coming together that mean it is attracting attention:
- It is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus
- It has mutations that affect part of the virus likely to be important
- Some of those mutations have already been shown in the lab to increase the ability of the virus to infect cells
- All of these come together to build a case for a virus that can spread more easily.
However, we do not have absolute certainty. New strains can become more common simply by being in the right place at the right time - such as London, which had only tier two restrictions until recently.
But already the justification for tier four restrictions is in part to reduce the spread of the variant.
"Laboratory experiments are required, but do you want to wait weeks or months [to see the results and take action to limit the spread]? Probably not in these circumstances," Prof Nick Loman, from the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium, told me.
These are eminently reasonable points to make regarding a good-faith justification of more stringent state measures across the EU given new information. Sometimes it's science wonks (bloggers more interested in technical hairsplitting about what exactly is transmissibility) that lose the forest for the trees.
posted by polymodus at 2:08 PM on December 20, 2020 [31 favorites]
Thanks polymodus, that's an extremely cogent summary.
posted by ambrosen at 2:20 PM on December 20, 2020
posted by ambrosen at 2:20 PM on December 20, 2020
Mod note: A few deleted.Please stop sniping at one another and either contribute to the conversation or give this thread a pass.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 2:24 PM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 2:24 PM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
In response to the ongoing situation, France has just banned all UK traffic (including accompanied freight) for 48 hours, closing the Port of Dover.
As of an hour or so ago, the Eurotunnel has also shut for 48 hours.
posted by fight or flight at 2:31 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
As of an hour or so ago, the Eurotunnel has also shut for 48 hours.
posted by fight or flight at 2:31 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) metioned by metaBugs has put up short history of the project so far. I would have made a proper post about it but I am involved in a (very) minor way.
antiwiggle, I'd be very interested to read a proper post about that, and I'm sure it's OK according to this MeTa from last year about linking to friends' posts, even if it's not exactly the same thing.
posted by ambrosen at 2:33 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
antiwiggle, I'd be very interested to read a proper post about that, and I'm sure it's OK according to this MeTa from last year about linking to friends' posts, even if it's not exactly the same thing.
posted by ambrosen at 2:33 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
Maybe it's a dry run for a crash-out Brexit? Just so that at the end of the month, everything goes properly according to the absence-of-any-plan?
posted by notoriety public at 2:38 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 2:38 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
At least we can get in some good practice for a life without brie. Turnips and sovereignty all round!
posted by fight or flight at 2:39 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 2:39 PM on December 20, 2020 [5 favorites]
The mutations that cause this variant don't affect the spike protein which is the main target of most of the vaccines.
They absolutely do affect the spike protein. A lot of experts I’ve seen talking about it seem to think it won’t be affected enough/in the right places to require the vaccines to be updated as of yet, especially if they are as effective as advertised to begin with. But that’s the reason it’s a matter of concern. As far as the immediate practical implications I think most researchers would be pretty clear that we don’t know all that much.
posted by atoxyl at 2:41 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
They absolutely do affect the spike protein. A lot of experts I’ve seen talking about it seem to think it won’t be affected enough/in the right places to require the vaccines to be updated as of yet, especially if they are as effective as advertised to begin with. But that’s the reason it’s a matter of concern. As far as the immediate practical implications I think most researchers would be pretty clear that we don’t know all that much.
posted by atoxyl at 2:41 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
meanwhile, no deal brexit gathers pace in the next 10 days, just as borders and freight are panic-shutting for this latest fuckup.
a friend predicts supermarket looting tomorrow in the UK re: food supply.
i like living in history, but prefer reading about it.
posted by lalochezia at 2:45 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
a friend predicts supermarket looting tomorrow in the UK re: food supply.
i like living in history, but prefer reading about it.
posted by lalochezia at 2:45 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
They absolutely do affect the spike protein
Sorry, I meant that the changes that affected the spike protein wouldn't get transmitted because they'd stop its function.
posted by jamespake at 2:45 PM on December 20, 2020
Sorry, I meant that the changes that affected the spike protein wouldn't get transmitted because they'd stop its function.
posted by jamespake at 2:45 PM on December 20, 2020
Smart, sober piece just posted on Science, by reporter and molecular biologist Kai Kupferschmidt.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:47 PM on December 20, 2020 [13 favorites]
posted by PhineasGage at 2:47 PM on December 20, 2020 [13 favorites]
Maybe it's a dry run for a crash-out Brexit? Just so that at the end of the month, everything goes properly according to the absence-of-any-plan?
No, it just fucking isn't. It's absolutely compounded the supply chain clusterfuck that we're in. Can we just not?
posted by ambrosen at 2:48 PM on December 20, 2020 [12 favorites]
No, it just fucking isn't. It's absolutely compounded the supply chain clusterfuck that we're in. Can we just not?
posted by ambrosen at 2:48 PM on December 20, 2020 [12 favorites]
I have the greatest respect for the TWIV team and have been a listener for many years but if NERVTAG says there is good evidence that this is a new, more infectious strain, then I will believe that. That doesn't mean it's actually the case of course, it could just be a statistical artefact, everyone hopes that this is just a blip caused by a few superspreading events but if they say that's the most likely view then I will go with that as my working hypothesis too.
Take into account that TWIV episode was recorded a day or two ago and this is rapidly developing. Until now there has been no evidence whatsoever of any new strains because there have been no data showing any phenotypic differences and the TWIV team has been debunking badly understood claims that there have been for months - always with the caveat that there hasn't been a new strain... yet. This new data is just that, new. They won't have had it when they recorded. It would not surprise me to see Vincent and the others change their mind on the next episode. Trust the science, not the scientists!
Also we are not comparing what the TWIV team are saying vs what Boris Johnson is saying. We're comparing what the NERVTAG advisory group are saying, and they are virologists, epidemiologists and clinicians. So this is a comparison of two groups of scientists, one of which has access to more up to date data and a specific mandate to advise on these issues.
The idea that this is being used a cover to get rid of the ill-thought out Christmas relaxation doesn't really stand up. The cabinet people couldn't keep a birthday party secret so they'd never manage to do this. They also desperately didn't want to do it because their back bench MPs are furious about the whole thing.
It doesn't need a new strain to explain the rise in cases. There has been no severe lockdown in the UK for quite a while, as schools, universities, shops, bars, and restaurants have all remained open in some capacity for most of the time.
The specific thing that puzzled the government's advisors was this:
-During the first lockdown, cases clearly came down everywhere, they came down less quickly in parts of the midlands and north, probably due to complex demographic factors and different kinds of work (fewer office workers who could work from home).
-During subsequent tier based restrictions, there was clear evidence that tier 3 plus worked everywhere in bringing cases down, tier 3 probably worked to bring cases down in most places it was applied, and tiers 1 and 2 slowed the spread but did not bring r below 1 so cases grew. Cases generally grew more slowly in tier 2 than 1, which is what you would expect.
-During the November lockdown, cases came down almost everywhere but in Kent and some other areas in the SE they did not come down as fast or even kept going up
-This data is noisy of course, and it is always delayed a few weeks
So the question is then - what's going on in Kent? Either people are taking the restrictions less seriously in Kent / they're not working as well there or something else. The first seems unlikely since in previous lockdowns / tiers, Kent has behaved like the rest of London and the home counties so why would the same measures applied in all of them have less effect there?
It could be bad luck. A few superspreading events that happened to have these mutations, in which case this isn't a new strain at all, just random phenotypically irrelevant variation causing a statistical phantom.
If this was a general rise in the whole UK, then yes, the most parsimonious explanation would be general disregard for rules / ineffective rules. The fact that it seems to have been focused in one area and been associated with particular sequence changes though means that this is less likely.
Most countries don't do quite so much systematic full sequencing so we've not got a great view of how widespread this is already.
I think the Christmas rule easing was in any case extremely ill advised and caused by a misunderstanding of the public mood. Ministers paid far too much attention to what certain right wing newspapers told them the public wanted.
The most reasonable assessment of the data is that there is reason to be concerned and that cancelling the Christmas rule easing was the right thing to do but that it may turn out to be a false alarm. Better safe than sorry.
I initially thought Dutch government did a lot of things right this pandemic. That thought went out the window when they fucked up the testing (there wasn't enough test capacity when the second wave hit). Had high hopes they learned from that mistake but apparantly not.
The interesting thing about reading multiple European newspapers, which I do to keep my languages up, is that everyone is convinced that it is their particular government which is either the best or the worst at handling this and the papers in each country spend so much time on their little local micro scandals and so little time on the big questions of how almost all of Europe got this so wrong.
posted by atrazine at 2:57 PM on December 20, 2020 [29 favorites]
Take into account that TWIV episode was recorded a day or two ago and this is rapidly developing. Until now there has been no evidence whatsoever of any new strains because there have been no data showing any phenotypic differences and the TWIV team has been debunking badly understood claims that there have been for months - always with the caveat that there hasn't been a new strain... yet. This new data is just that, new. They won't have had it when they recorded. It would not surprise me to see Vincent and the others change their mind on the next episode. Trust the science, not the scientists!
Also we are not comparing what the TWIV team are saying vs what Boris Johnson is saying. We're comparing what the NERVTAG advisory group are saying, and they are virologists, epidemiologists and clinicians. So this is a comparison of two groups of scientists, one of which has access to more up to date data and a specific mandate to advise on these issues.
The idea that this is being used a cover to get rid of the ill-thought out Christmas relaxation doesn't really stand up. The cabinet people couldn't keep a birthday party secret so they'd never manage to do this. They also desperately didn't want to do it because their back bench MPs are furious about the whole thing.
It doesn't need a new strain to explain the rise in cases. There has been no severe lockdown in the UK for quite a while, as schools, universities, shops, bars, and restaurants have all remained open in some capacity for most of the time.
The specific thing that puzzled the government's advisors was this:
-During the first lockdown, cases clearly came down everywhere, they came down less quickly in parts of the midlands and north, probably due to complex demographic factors and different kinds of work (fewer office workers who could work from home).
-During subsequent tier based restrictions, there was clear evidence that tier 3 plus worked everywhere in bringing cases down, tier 3 probably worked to bring cases down in most places it was applied, and tiers 1 and 2 slowed the spread but did not bring r below 1 so cases grew. Cases generally grew more slowly in tier 2 than 1, which is what you would expect.
-During the November lockdown, cases came down almost everywhere but in Kent and some other areas in the SE they did not come down as fast or even kept going up
-This data is noisy of course, and it is always delayed a few weeks
So the question is then - what's going on in Kent? Either people are taking the restrictions less seriously in Kent / they're not working as well there or something else. The first seems unlikely since in previous lockdowns / tiers, Kent has behaved like the rest of London and the home counties so why would the same measures applied in all of them have less effect there?
It could be bad luck. A few superspreading events that happened to have these mutations, in which case this isn't a new strain at all, just random phenotypically irrelevant variation causing a statistical phantom.
If this was a general rise in the whole UK, then yes, the most parsimonious explanation would be general disregard for rules / ineffective rules. The fact that it seems to have been focused in one area and been associated with particular sequence changes though means that this is less likely.
Most countries don't do quite so much systematic full sequencing so we've not got a great view of how widespread this is already.
I think the Christmas rule easing was in any case extremely ill advised and caused by a misunderstanding of the public mood. Ministers paid far too much attention to what certain right wing newspapers told them the public wanted.
The most reasonable assessment of the data is that there is reason to be concerned and that cancelling the Christmas rule easing was the right thing to do but that it may turn out to be a false alarm. Better safe than sorry.
I initially thought Dutch government did a lot of things right this pandemic. That thought went out the window when they fucked up the testing (there wasn't enough test capacity when the second wave hit). Had high hopes they learned from that mistake but apparantly not.
The interesting thing about reading multiple European newspapers, which I do to keep my languages up, is that everyone is convinced that it is their particular government which is either the best or the worst at handling this and the papers in each country spend so much time on their little local micro scandals and so little time on the big questions of how almost all of Europe got this so wrong.
posted by atrazine at 2:57 PM on December 20, 2020 [29 favorites]
Sorry, I meant that the changes that affected the spike protein wouldn't get transmitted because they'd stop its function.
I still think you’re confused about something? That is a constraint on spike protein mutations. But the N501Y mutation that everybody is talking about is in the spike protein receptor binding domain.
posted by atoxyl at 2:57 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
I still think you’re confused about something? That is a constraint on spike protein mutations. But the N501Y mutation that everybody is talking about is in the spike protein receptor binding domain.
posted by atoxyl at 2:57 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
Sorry, didn't understand the weight of https://www.cogconsortium.uk/
posted by jamespake at 3:05 PM on December 20, 2020
posted by jamespake at 3:05 PM on December 20, 2020
Sorry, didn't understand the weight of https://www.cogconsortium.uk/
I have no idea how to interpret this comment. I’m not even particularly appealing to the authority of the organization; I linked that document because it has a nice summary of different mutations. There’s plenty of controversy over the expected real-world impact of those mutations. But I just wanted to clarify what the characteristic mutations of this UK variant are.
posted by atoxyl at 3:39 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
I have no idea how to interpret this comment. I’m not even particularly appealing to the authority of the organization; I linked that document because it has a nice summary of different mutations. There’s plenty of controversy over the expected real-world impact of those mutations. But I just wanted to clarify what the characteristic mutations of this UK variant are.
posted by atoxyl at 3:39 PM on December 20, 2020 [2 favorites]
Canada joins the no UKers club: Canada halts flights from U.K. in response to new coronavirus strain (CBC)
posted by rodlymight at 5:15 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by rodlymight at 5:15 PM on December 20, 2020 [3 favorites]
Canada halts flights from U.K. in response to new coronavirus strain (CBC)
My guess is that Boris leaped on this "supervirus" thing as an excuse for his own domestic failures but neglected to consider that the rest of the world might also be listening to him. Oops.
posted by JackFlash at 5:25 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
My guess is that Boris leaped on this "supervirus" thing as an excuse for his own domestic failures but neglected to consider that the rest of the world might also be listening to him. Oops.
posted by JackFlash at 5:25 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
If this new strain has been cryptically circulating for months and is, per Hancock, already "out of control" in London, there might be an element of closing the stable door in barring new arrivals from the UK. It seems perfectly likely that the new strain will already have been exported far and wide. As noted up-thread, the UK appears to do considerably more sequencing than most other places. If it's been in London for months, it's quite possible, if not probable, that it is also rife in mainland Europe; they just don't know it yet. That's not at all to say the reaction is irrational - they're responding to information as it becomes available, just like everyone, everywhere - I'm just very pessimistic that it will be sufficient.
posted by deeker at 5:35 PM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
posted by deeker at 5:35 PM on December 20, 2020 [6 favorites]
Yeah I think the idea of containing this mutation is a pipe dream. You can't contain it when it's already this widespread.
posted by Justinian at 6:41 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by Justinian at 6:41 PM on December 20, 2020 [1 favorite]
Smart, sober piece just posted on Science, by reporter and molecular biologist Kai Kupferschmidt.
Reading about the similar mutations in South Africa, it seems possible to me that we might be looking at the natural evolution of the virus in response to repeated encounters with human immune systems. If that is true, its likely we'll see similar strains with similar mutations popping up elsewhere. We already had another set of mutations that caused one strain of the virus to become dominant over an earlier strain. It wouldn't be surprising to have another.
On the other hand, we could also just be looking at founder effects and correlations related to seasonal changes in virus transmissibility and superspreader events.
posted by eagles123 at 7:19 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Reading about the similar mutations in South Africa, it seems possible to me that we might be looking at the natural evolution of the virus in response to repeated encounters with human immune systems. If that is true, its likely we'll see similar strains with similar mutations popping up elsewhere. We already had another set of mutations that caused one strain of the virus to become dominant over an earlier strain. It wouldn't be surprising to have another.
On the other hand, we could also just be looking at founder effects and correlations related to seasonal changes in virus transmissibility and superspreader events.
posted by eagles123 at 7:19 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Whatever the case with the new strain, it makes sense to act as if it is significantly more transmissable until lab work shows otherwise.
posted by Dysk at 9:49 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 9:49 PM on December 20, 2020 [4 favorites]
Hey, at least we didn't get free broadband.
posted by fullerine at 12:53 AM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by fullerine at 12:53 AM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
Late to this but: a lot of people saying 'nothing changed' in the last couple of weeks to explain the spikes, but - several million young people were moved around the country between 2 and 9 December. Many of those young people came from a demographic where as high as 1 in 30 of them had had covid at some point since September, and had been given lateral flow tests which reassured them they were negative despite the 20-50% false negative rate for those styles of tests.
Even though the ONS stats show that students have actually been observing social distancing and other measures at least as carefully as the rest of the population, surely the disbanding of universities and the false security given by tests might be related to the spikes?
posted by AFII at 2:58 AM on December 21, 2020
Even though the ONS stats show that students have actually been observing social distancing and other measures at least as carefully as the rest of the population, surely the disbanding of universities and the false security given by tests might be related to the spikes?
posted by AFII at 2:58 AM on December 21, 2020
Sure but that wouldn't explain the localisation of the spikes. I'd be a lot more suspicious that this was just an excuse if rates were going up uniformly everywhere.
posted by atrazine at 3:25 AM on December 21, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by atrazine at 3:25 AM on December 21, 2020 [4 favorites]
I think the Christmas rule easing was in any case extremely ill advised and caused by a misunderstanding of the public mood. Ministers paid far too much attention to what certain right wing newspapers told them the public wanted.
Just to follow up on this: the usual wretches in the right wing press were reporting loads of stories of people being furious, not going to obey, muh liberties, all that shit...
Actual polling yesterday shows that 75% of people agree that the new tier 4 restrictions are the right thing to do! It turns out people aren't as dumb as the Daily Mail thinks they are. (also 2/3s of people think the Christmas rules have been handled poorly)
posted by atrazine at 4:28 AM on December 21, 2020 [14 favorites]
Just to follow up on this: the usual wretches in the right wing press were reporting loads of stories of people being furious, not going to obey, muh liberties, all that shit...
Actual polling yesterday shows that 75% of people agree that the new tier 4 restrictions are the right thing to do! It turns out people aren't as dumb as the Daily Mail thinks they are. (also 2/3s of people think the Christmas rules have been handled poorly)
posted by atrazine at 4:28 AM on December 21, 2020 [14 favorites]
Not only that, atrazine, prior polling has been consistent on this issue. Large majorities of the public knew a relaxed Christmas was dangerous and did not support the measure. The whole "the public need and demand Christmas as usual" was a media confection from the start (or, at the very least, it was a minority pursuit inflated by the press despite evidence to the contrary). New strain or not, the public could clearly see the insane amount of risk the government's plans represented. I personally suspect that large numbers of those who were demanding Christmas as usual were those who flouted rules anyway. If you're part of the muh liberties crowd, it's not even a small step to muh Christmas.
That's not to doubt that a decent number of those who wanted Christmas as usual were at the ends of their tethers over not seeing loved ones and/or couldn't face Christmas alone - but irresponsible writing did nothing to assuage that; quite the contrary, it amplified those feelings amongst those who might, with more responsible writing, have been persuaded to stick it out.
The government, of course, also amplified those sentiments when, again, they could have done the opposite. Whitty and Valance have looked positively pained of late when they stand next to Johnson (or whatever nodding ass is at the lectern bleating about the need for massive amounts of travel and mixing).
It's a curious mix of paternalism and libertarianism - telling people what's best for them is maximum liberties against the stated views of those asked who would rather have their liberties temporarily curtailed.
posted by deeker at 4:56 AM on December 21, 2020 [12 favorites]
That's not to doubt that a decent number of those who wanted Christmas as usual were at the ends of their tethers over not seeing loved ones and/or couldn't face Christmas alone - but irresponsible writing did nothing to assuage that; quite the contrary, it amplified those feelings amongst those who might, with more responsible writing, have been persuaded to stick it out.
The government, of course, also amplified those sentiments when, again, they could have done the opposite. Whitty and Valance have looked positively pained of late when they stand next to Johnson (or whatever nodding ass is at the lectern bleating about the need for massive amounts of travel and mixing).
It's a curious mix of paternalism and libertarianism - telling people what's best for them is maximum liberties against the stated views of those asked who would rather have their liberties temporarily curtailed.
posted by deeker at 4:56 AM on December 21, 2020 [12 favorites]
European experts urge caution over new Covid mutation found in UK.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:21 AM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:21 AM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
Sweden joins the UK travel ban club: The Local.
There is also some concern over the new variant having been found in Denmark, but no travel ban yet.
posted by froghopper at 6:32 AM on December 21, 2020
There is also some concern over the new variant having been found in Denmark, but no travel ban yet.
posted by froghopper at 6:32 AM on December 21, 2020
About mass vaccination. You'd expect it to start in the next few months but here in the Netherlands, it is such a shitshow that for most people it'll only start in August (and will take a very long time to reach everyone).
What's your source for this ? Official sources say vaccinations begin on January 8th for at risk groups. The government expects to receive 21,7 million vaccines in the first half of 2021. That's enough to vaccinate 10 million people.
posted by Pendragon at 7:59 AM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
What's your source for this ? Official sources say vaccinations begin on January 8th for at risk groups. The government expects to receive 21,7 million vaccines in the first half of 2021. That's enough to vaccinate 10 million people.
posted by Pendragon at 7:59 AM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
Sure but that wouldn't explain the localisation of the spikes. I'd be a lot more suspicious that this was just an excuse if rates were going up uniformly everywhere.
Exponential growth means it only takes small differences in behaviour to cause big differences in numbers. I have no problem believing that levels of compliance / precautions / attitude (delete as applicable) vary enough from place to place - driven by demographics, affluence, politics, etc - to make spikes in certain areas to be expected. And once it's out of control in one area it will quickly spread geographically.
posted by grahamparks at 8:53 AM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
Exponential growth means it only takes small differences in behaviour to cause big differences in numbers. I have no problem believing that levels of compliance / precautions / attitude (delete as applicable) vary enough from place to place - driven by demographics, affluence, politics, etc - to make spikes in certain areas to be expected. And once it's out of control in one area it will quickly spread geographically.
posted by grahamparks at 8:53 AM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
Hi Pendragon, I read about it in the NRC newspaper. I'm on the phone right now so linking is hard. Will try to find some links later tonight though. This is what I remember from the article:
When it became clear the vaccination process wasn't as well prepared as one would expect, the opposition in the parlement grilled the government about it. I believe one of the leaders of the opposition calculated that with the figures provided the vaccination of the total population would take 160 weeks.
The vaccination will indeed start January 8 but only on 3 locations and starting for very vulnerable groups and care workers. August was mentioned as the start of vaccination for everyone.
posted by Kosmob0t at 8:54 AM on December 21, 2020
When it became clear the vaccination process wasn't as well prepared as one would expect, the opposition in the parlement grilled the government about it. I believe one of the leaders of the opposition calculated that with the figures provided the vaccination of the total population would take 160 weeks.
The vaccination will indeed start January 8 but only on 3 locations and starting for very vulnerable groups and care workers. August was mentioned as the start of vaccination for everyone.
posted by Kosmob0t at 8:54 AM on December 21, 2020
Scratch that, we’re apparently doing a limited entry ban from Denmark. sez the Swedish government.
Meanwhile, the UK is accumulating bans from dozens of countries, per electionMaps.
posted by froghopper at 9:06 AM on December 21, 2020
Meanwhile, the UK is accumulating bans from dozens of countries, per electionMaps.
posted by froghopper at 9:06 AM on December 21, 2020
The vaccination will indeed start January 8 but only on 3 locations and starting for very vulnerable groups and care workers. August was mentioned as the start of vaccination for everyone.
I can't find any information on August being the start of vaccination for everyone. If this is info from a debate in parlement I would take it with a grain of salt.
posted by Pendragon at 9:49 AM on December 21, 2020
I can't find any information on August being the start of vaccination for everyone. If this is info from a debate in parlement I would take it with a grain of salt.
posted by Pendragon at 9:49 AM on December 21, 2020
What’s the current attitude in the UK to wearing masks? I happened upon a London walking around video dated December 17 and it looks like a significant number of people, including shop workers, are maskless.
posted by SteveInMaine at 10:48 AM on December 21, 2020
posted by SteveInMaine at 10:48 AM on December 21, 2020
I'd say no more than about one in ten of my fellow Londoners are wearing masks - that's based on what I see of them outdoors while on my daily walks. All but a tiny handful seem to have forgotten any notion of social distancing too.
posted by Paul Slade at 10:55 AM on December 21, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by Paul Slade at 10:55 AM on December 21, 2020 [3 favorites]
Conventional wisdom and government policy in the UK is that masks aren't really needed outdoors. Wearing masks at all came in late and for a while only shop customers were required to wear them and that situation has stuck, despite a vague edict that workers should wear them too.
Likewise most people don't really try to keep a distance when passing strangers in the street. There's widespread feeling that the risk from fleeting encounters outdoors is close to zero. I don't know how well the science backs that up.
posted by grahamparks at 11:01 AM on December 21, 2020 [3 favorites]
Likewise most people don't really try to keep a distance when passing strangers in the street. There's widespread feeling that the risk from fleeting encounters outdoors is close to zero. I don't know how well the science backs that up.
posted by grahamparks at 11:01 AM on December 21, 2020 [3 favorites]
I'm currently living in a village in Fife - compliance is high in the local shop (around 90%). Friends in Edinburgh, where I lived previously for 20 years, say it's around 75% and friends in Glasgow, where I lived before that, say it's a wee bit less. Dundee is... less compliant. Earlier in the pandemic, people who had to travel to Englandshire for work said the difference, as they saw it, was marked - said they were shocked at levels of non-compliance in several cities. That's all second-hand anecdotal for all but my village, of course (,I've left this place five times since this all began!)
On preview, grahamparks is right about the indoor/outdoor thing: it's relatively rare, both here in the village and in cities, to see masks worn in the street.
posted by deeker at 11:05 AM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
On preview, grahamparks is right about the indoor/outdoor thing: it's relatively rare, both here in the village and in cities, to see masks worn in the street.
posted by deeker at 11:05 AM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
This is not the exact article I read in the paper version of NRC but it comes close.
August is mentioned as the time the GGD* was preparing for as the start of mass vaccination. I guess I was wrong in thinking it would be the definite date it would start as plans can be amended. It is quite unbelievable that they are leaving it this late to amend the plans though.
* the GGD is the local healthcenter that in normal times also does vaccinations. They seem to be like little fiefdoms, very decentralized. For instance, there's no centralized IT system to coordinate things. The same mistake was made with regards to test and trace earlier this year.
posted by Kosmob0t at 11:11 AM on December 21, 2020
August is mentioned as the time the GGD* was preparing for as the start of mass vaccination. I guess I was wrong in thinking it would be the definite date it would start as plans can be amended. It is quite unbelievable that they are leaving it this late to amend the plans though.
* the GGD is the local healthcenter that in normal times also does vaccinations. They seem to be like little fiefdoms, very decentralized. For instance, there's no centralized IT system to coordinate things. The same mistake was made with regards to test and trace earlier this year.
posted by Kosmob0t at 11:11 AM on December 21, 2020
I almost never see people wear masks outdoors and certainly I don't wear one, but I live in an area where people can keep about 10m apart pretty easily outdoors and people are still keeping good distance. The few times I've been into a shop, everyone has been masked. The two times I've had to go into London I had a mask with me to wear if I was on a street that looked crowded but I didn't end up encountering one, it was very quiet.
posted by atrazine at 11:39 AM on December 21, 2020
posted by atrazine at 11:39 AM on December 21, 2020
Where I live in Tier 3 England it's masks in shops etc pretty uniformly but rarely outdoors otherwise. I haven't been in that many shops but workers have been wearing masks in the places I have been in.
posted by plonkee at 11:40 AM on December 21, 2020
posted by plonkee at 11:40 AM on December 21, 2020
I live in Edinburgh and avoid the city centre and crowded areas. Compliance in supermarkets and shops is high, I'd say higher than 75%. I carry and wear a mask indoors and the only people I see wearing masks out on the street seem to be Asian students heading to the shops.
posted by epo at 11:45 AM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by epo at 11:45 AM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
Part of the benefit of masking up when you leave the house and then unmasking only when you return home is that you don't touch your face all the time taking your mask on and off. Taking your mask off after being in a contaminated high traffic area before you wash your hands is a bad idea.
So it's not that you're risking getting infected by aerosols outdoors; you're risking getting infected by touching your face all the time putting your mask on and off every time you leave a store.
posted by benzenedream at 12:20 PM on December 21, 2020 [9 favorites]
So it's not that you're risking getting infected by aerosols outdoors; you're risking getting infected by touching your face all the time putting your mask on and off every time you leave a store.
posted by benzenedream at 12:20 PM on December 21, 2020 [9 favorites]
They absolutely do affect the spike protein.
Sorry, Atrazine, you are right. I had got my info about the new variant from a BBC news report on Saturday which referred to the mutations being in the ORF1ab and N genes, which turns out to be referring to an earlier variant, not this one. But, still, I get the impression from various virologists that there is no strong evidence for greater infectivity. While news reports seem to be stating that the new variant is more infectious, that doesn't seem to be based on any evidence. Some claims have put a very specific figure on the infectivity, but that seems to be based on an assumption that the r value corresponds somehow to the proportion of cases in the population. This seems to assume a null hypothesis that two variants which are equally infectious will result in the same number of cases in the population, which is clearly false. There are lots of different reasons why London might experience spikes now including reports of crowds gathering outside pubs when they introduced 10pm closing, or outside shops when lock-down was eased a few weeks ago. London and Kent were both in a lower level of lock-down than Liverpool or Manchester until relatively recently. University students started coming home on Dec 3rd, etc. The new variant was first detected in two samples from Kent and London on consecutive days in September and didn't become noticeably prevalent until relatively recently. It's not surprising if a rise in cases involves a variant that was already present in the local population and, as they put it on TWIV, it's a bit like the phenomenon of being famous just for being famous - some variant has to be the most frequent.
On reflection, I've realized that pragmatically, we can't afford to wait for evidence, and besides, it doesn't really matter whether the new variant is more infectious or not. The scientific and medical community had been calling for the government to cancel the easing of lock-down for Christmas, and perhaps the only way to do this was to put aside qualms about scientific proof and just use this variant as a tool to achieve that goal. After committing so firmly to allowing families to meet at Christmas, Boris Johnson basically needed something like this to enable him to save face in what would otherwise be seen as a massive U-turn. So I can see that, unlike the academic virologists, the government advisors have had to make a decision based more on pragmatic and political reality than scientific ideal, and I guess that's a good thing if it helps stop the spread.
posted by jamespake at 1:22 PM on December 21, 2020
Sorry, Atrazine, you are right. I had got my info about the new variant from a BBC news report on Saturday which referred to the mutations being in the ORF1ab and N genes, which turns out to be referring to an earlier variant, not this one. But, still, I get the impression from various virologists that there is no strong evidence for greater infectivity. While news reports seem to be stating that the new variant is more infectious, that doesn't seem to be based on any evidence. Some claims have put a very specific figure on the infectivity, but that seems to be based on an assumption that the r value corresponds somehow to the proportion of cases in the population. This seems to assume a null hypothesis that two variants which are equally infectious will result in the same number of cases in the population, which is clearly false. There are lots of different reasons why London might experience spikes now including reports of crowds gathering outside pubs when they introduced 10pm closing, or outside shops when lock-down was eased a few weeks ago. London and Kent were both in a lower level of lock-down than Liverpool or Manchester until relatively recently. University students started coming home on Dec 3rd, etc. The new variant was first detected in two samples from Kent and London on consecutive days in September and didn't become noticeably prevalent until relatively recently. It's not surprising if a rise in cases involves a variant that was already present in the local population and, as they put it on TWIV, it's a bit like the phenomenon of being famous just for being famous - some variant has to be the most frequent.
On reflection, I've realized that pragmatically, we can't afford to wait for evidence, and besides, it doesn't really matter whether the new variant is more infectious or not. The scientific and medical community had been calling for the government to cancel the easing of lock-down for Christmas, and perhaps the only way to do this was to put aside qualms about scientific proof and just use this variant as a tool to achieve that goal. After committing so firmly to allowing families to meet at Christmas, Boris Johnson basically needed something like this to enable him to save face in what would otherwise be seen as a massive U-turn. So I can see that, unlike the academic virologists, the government advisors have had to make a decision based more on pragmatic and political reality than scientific ideal, and I guess that's a good thing if it helps stop the spread.
posted by jamespake at 1:22 PM on December 21, 2020
Your body makes not just one antibody to the spike protein. It makes many different antibodies to various locations on the spike protein. Unless there are major changes, antibodies produced by the vaccine should still be able to identify the spike.
posted by JackFlash at 1:37 PM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by JackFlash at 1:37 PM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
Sorry, Atrazine, you are right.
Heh wrong guy but the confusion there is understandable.
I think the extent to which these mutations really increase transmission is certainly unsettled. But there’s some on-paper reason to believe that they could based on their effect on receptor binding, and some preliminary real-world evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis.
posted by atoxyl at 1:43 PM on December 21, 2020
Heh wrong guy but the confusion there is understandable.
I think the extent to which these mutations really increase transmission is certainly unsettled. But there’s some on-paper reason to believe that they could based on their effect on receptor binding, and some preliminary real-world evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis.
posted by atoxyl at 1:43 PM on December 21, 2020
Your body makes not just one antibody to the spike protein. It makes many different antibodies to various locations on the spike protein. Unless there are major changes, antibodies produced by the vaccine should still be able to identify the spike.
true, but we're only interested in neutralizing antibodies, and not ones that give antibody-dpendent-enhancement (see this and many links therein and this is super-over-simplifying thtings!)
posted by lalochezia at 1:45 PM on December 21, 2020
A new technical briefing document Investigation of novel SARS-COV-2 variant: Variant of Concern 202012/01 from Public Health England. The summary concludes:
A novel variant has been identified which has spread rapidly within the UK. We have assessed this variant as having substantially increased transmissibility with high confidence. Further studies are underway to characterise the variant and updates will be provided.
posted by antiwiggle at 1:49 PM on December 21, 2020
A novel variant has been identified which has spread rapidly within the UK. We have assessed this variant as having substantially increased transmissibility with high confidence. Further studies are underway to characterise the variant and updates will be provided.
posted by antiwiggle at 1:49 PM on December 21, 2020
RE: spike protein mutations, with the disclaimer that I’m not a virologist:
The spike protein has a dual importance, as the key to the virus infecting cells and also as the target of the vaccine. From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, it is a boon that the mutation of the spike protein is constrained by the fact that many possible changes to the structure of the protein will compromise the transmission of the virus. From the perspective of viral evolution, this constraint means the spike protein mutations that will tend eventually to become widespread are those which enhance the transmission of the virus. So when you do start seeing those they are worrisome on multiple fronts.
posted by atoxyl at 1:59 PM on December 21, 2020
The spike protein has a dual importance, as the key to the virus infecting cells and also as the target of the vaccine. From the perspective of vaccine effectiveness, it is a boon that the mutation of the spike protein is constrained by the fact that many possible changes to the structure of the protein will compromise the transmission of the virus. From the perspective of viral evolution, this constraint means the spike protein mutations that will tend eventually to become widespread are those which enhance the transmission of the virus. So when you do start seeing those they are worrisome on multiple fronts.
posted by atoxyl at 1:59 PM on December 21, 2020
The vaccination will indeed start January 8 but only on 3 locations and starting for very vulnerable groups and care workers
In theory perhaps. In practice, the order is more likely to be something like:
posted by acb at 2:05 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
In theory perhaps. In practice, the order is more likely to be something like:
- The Royal Family
- The Prime Minister, Cabinet and SPADs
- Lords and Knights
- The major parties (Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and Brexit) will get to nominate lists of people for priority access to the vaccine
posted by acb at 2:05 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
>130,000 people had been vaccinated in the UK ~10 days ago with the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine.....it's certainly in the hundreds of thousands by now.
posted by lalochezia at 2:14 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by lalochezia at 2:14 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
After which, the vaccine will be distributed by local authorities, in order of political favourability and/or Leave vote percentage. As Britain is a hierarchical society, it will be made available in order of seniority, i.e., senior executives getting it ahead of frontline staff (who, to be fair, are not unlikely to have been radicalised by poverty.)
1) that comment was about the Netherlands
2) The UK has vaccinated about 500k people already
3) what are you smoking?
posted by atrazine at 2:24 PM on December 21, 2020 [11 favorites]
1) that comment was about the Netherlands
2) The UK has vaccinated about 500k people already
3) what are you smoking?
posted by atrazine at 2:24 PM on December 21, 2020 [11 favorites]
Mod note: folks: it's so hard to tell what is real and sarcasm/fiction, please cite your sources if you have them, and maybe be more clear if you're just riffing?
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 2:32 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 2:32 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
METAFILTER: wrong guy but the confusion there is understandable
posted by philip-random at 2:43 PM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by philip-random at 2:43 PM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
North London reporting. Can confirm that mask-wearing in the street is spotty, neither rare nor common. Masking-up in shops is very high, but not as high as the tube (I would see maybe one maskless rider a day when I was tubing, whereas large shops might have two or three per visit). Social distancing, however, seems ragged: a lot more leaning in for grabbing items from shelves, a lot less space given between riders on escalators.
I felt that there was going to be a bit more cheekiness around parties for Tier 2, but Tier 3 doused that for the six seconds we were in it and Tier 4 has positively trashed any notion of house-mixing in my limited circles. That said, the Cummings Effect is real and I suspect that fraying nerves and too much Bailey's might see some reversals...
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 3:30 PM on December 21, 2020
I felt that there was going to be a bit more cheekiness around parties for Tier 2, but Tier 3 doused that for the six seconds we were in it and Tier 4 has positively trashed any notion of house-mixing in my limited circles. That said, the Cummings Effect is real and I suspect that fraying nerves and too much Bailey's might see some reversals...
posted by Ten Cold Hot Dogs at 3:30 PM on December 21, 2020
I'm an actual for real tier 1 resident. We went out for breakfast first Saturday out of lockdown, was pretty busy, people came back out of this one pretty speedily, much more so than after the first lockdown. We went for dinner at the local pub, there was some atmosphere but not convinced I'd do it again. A few too many people in one space. Certainly not going near it on Christmas day. People here are adhering to masks in shops and on buses but pretty much not in the street. People are trying to keep out of each other's way but it's difficult.
Anyway, it seems to have escaped most people's attention but the infection rate here has quadrupled in the last week, albeit from a low base. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Cornwall was tier 2 by new year. I also wonder how many dickheads will be making their way to holiday homes here for the week ahead.
(Interesting factoid, my tablet suggests sickness as the autocorrect for dickheads.)
posted by biffa at 5:01 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
Anyway, it seems to have escaped most people's attention but the infection rate here has quadrupled in the last week, albeit from a low base. Wouldn't surprise me at all if Cornwall was tier 2 by new year. I also wonder how many dickheads will be making their way to holiday homes here for the week ahead.
(Interesting factoid, my tablet suggests sickness as the autocorrect for dickheads.)
posted by biffa at 5:01 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
1) that comment was about the Netherlands
wat? i was replying to: "The Royal Family The Prime Minister, Cabinet and SPADs, Lords and Knights" ....usually this refers to the UK
2) The UK has vaccinated about 500k people already
not sorry (hence the "hundreds of thousands")
3) what are you smoking?
not enough
posted by lalochezia at 6:23 PM on December 21, 2020
Re:Mutant COVID in the UK
. So much misinformation is being circulated, so this thread brings key data together
posted by lalochezia at 6:47 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
. So much misinformation is being circulated, so this thread brings key data together
posted by lalochezia at 6:47 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
New TWIV Video
Here is a new TWIV video from Vincent Racaniello directly addressing the mutations observed in the UK. He is still highly skeptical of the claims, and he goes into great detail as to why. Basically, and at the risk of not conveying his argument completely accurately, it seems like he's against using epidemiological data to make claims regarding connections between viruses mutations and changes in the characteristics of the diseases they cause, broadly speaking. I'm intentionally trying to avoid using terms of art that I might use incorrectly. As you will see if you watch the video, Vincent has issues with the way even the term "mutation" is being used.
If nothing else, I learned a lot from the video about the impact of the mutations on the structure of the virus. It is quite interesting.
posted by eagles123 at 9:15 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
Here is a new TWIV video from Vincent Racaniello directly addressing the mutations observed in the UK. He is still highly skeptical of the claims, and he goes into great detail as to why. Basically, and at the risk of not conveying his argument completely accurately, it seems like he's against using epidemiological data to make claims regarding connections between viruses mutations and changes in the characteristics of the diseases they cause, broadly speaking. I'm intentionally trying to avoid using terms of art that I might use incorrectly. As you will see if you watch the video, Vincent has issues with the way even the term "mutation" is being used.
If nothing else, I learned a lot from the video about the impact of the mutations on the structure of the virus. It is quite interesting.
posted by eagles123 at 9:15 PM on December 21, 2020 [1 favorite]
That Raccaniello video does make some interesting points, especially that this strain has something called "ORF-8 deletions" which in other strains have made the virus less virulent (i.e. causes less harm in those that get it).
But on the other hand science takes time, if this strain is more threatening, by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it.
Carl von Clausewitz: "War is the province of uncertainty: three-fourths of those things upon which action in War must be calculated, are hidden more or less in the clouds of great uncertainty." Pandemics seem to be the same.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 10:36 PM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
But on the other hand science takes time, if this strain is more threatening, by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it.
Carl von Clausewitz: "War is the province of uncertainty: three-fourths of those things upon which action in War must be calculated, are hidden more or less in the clouds of great uncertainty." Pandemics seem to be the same.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 10:36 PM on December 21, 2020 [2 favorites]
(lalochezia, acb's original comment was responding to one about the Netherlands, my comment was directed at that, not at your response)
posted by atrazine at 5:12 AM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by atrazine at 5:12 AM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
Here is a new TWIV video from Vincent Racaniello directly addressing the mutations observed in the UK. He is still highly skeptical of the claims, and he goes into great detail as to why. Basically, and at the risk of not conveying his argument completely accurately, it seems like he's against using epidemiological data to make claims regarding connections between viruses mutations and changes in the characteristics of the diseases they cause, broadly speaking. I'm intentionally trying to avoid using terms of art that I might use incorrectly. As you will see if you watch the video, Vincent has issues with the way even the term "mutation" is being used.
Thanks, love a bit of Vinny. I mean, I get it, epi data is a really messy way to draw this kind of conclusion and in non pandemic circumstances you'd never publish a conclusion that there was a phenotypically different variant without experimental evidence, but I think this is a better safe than sorry measure. In any case, even if not caused by a new strain/variant, cases are rising very rapidly in some areas so the right measure to take is still the same.
Note that Christian Drosten was equally sceptical a few days ago about whether this genuinely a new variant and his latest comment is this doesn't look good.
posted by atrazine at 5:17 AM on December 22, 2020 [2 favorites]
Thanks, love a bit of Vinny. I mean, I get it, epi data is a really messy way to draw this kind of conclusion and in non pandemic circumstances you'd never publish a conclusion that there was a phenotypically different variant without experimental evidence, but I think this is a better safe than sorry measure. In any case, even if not caused by a new strain/variant, cases are rising very rapidly in some areas so the right measure to take is still the same.
Note that Christian Drosten was equally sceptical a few days ago about whether this genuinely a new variant and his latest comment is this doesn't look good.
posted by atrazine at 5:17 AM on December 22, 2020 [2 favorites]
How a string of failures by the British government helped Covid-19 to mutate
By Anthony Costello, professor of global health and sustainable development at University College London and a former director of maternal and child health at the WHO
posted by mumimor at 7:03 AM on December 22, 2020 [13 favorites]
By Anthony Costello, professor of global health and sustainable development at University College London and a former director of maternal and child health at the WHO
During the first wave of Covid-19 in Britain, many scientists – myself included – said the government should be pursuing a “maximum suppression” or “zero Covid” strategy. One of the many reasons for this was to stop natural selection doing its work. When a virus is allowed to spread, spending time in different hosts, it evolves and mutates. Scientists have now found a “mutant” variant of the virus that causes Covid-19, which has 17 alterations to its genetic sequences, including changes in the spike protein that enables the virus to enter our cells.I hadn't thought about it this way. This is something I will talk about next time I meet a denier/herd immunity idiot. So many of the terrible things happening seemingly could have been avoided if people just stuck to basic knowledge.
Despite the warnings, the government’s strategy throughout the pandemic has been to slow the spread of the virus and reduce pressure on the NHS, rather than eliminating Covid altogether. As late as 13 March, Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) minutes recorded that “measures seeking to completely suppress [the] spread of Covid-19 will cause a second peak”. Advisers warned that countries such as China, where heavy suppression was already under way “will experience a second peak once measures are relaxed”. Instead of eliminating coronavirus, the logic seemed to be, Britain would learn to live with it.
Nine months later, China and South Korea have recorded three and 12 deaths per million people respectively. By contrast, based on the government data for deaths occurring within 28 days of a positive Covid test, the UK has recorded 970 deaths from Covid per million people.
posted by mumimor at 7:03 AM on December 22, 2020 [13 favorites]
The European Commission adopted a recommendation discouraging blanket travel bans from the UK earlier today.
posted by roolya_boolya at 7:47 AM on December 22, 2020
While it is important to take swift temporary precautionary action to limit the further spread of the new strain of the virus and all non-essential travel to and from the UK should be discouraged, essential travel and transit of passengers should be facilitated. Flight and train bans should be discontinued given the need to ensure essential travel and avoid supply chain disruptions.Edited to clarify that the Commission adopted a recommendation.
posted by roolya_boolya at 7:47 AM on December 22, 2020
But on the other hand science takes time, if this strain is more threatening, by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it.
On the one hand, I think this is probably right. On the other, the news media is taking it as read that this variation is definitely worse. Like, the Guardian is calling it a "more infectious variant", a "new hyper-infective strain." We don't know that! The science is extremely new! The media is still failing at science communication.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:59 AM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
On the one hand, I think this is probably right. On the other, the news media is taking it as read that this variation is definitely worse. Like, the Guardian is calling it a "more infectious variant", a "new hyper-infective strain." We don't know that! The science is extremely new! The media is still failing at science communication.
posted by BungaDunga at 7:59 AM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
This means that Member States should not in principle refuse the entry of persons travelling from the UK. After the end of the transition period, the UK will be subject to Council Recommendation on the temporary restriction on non-essential travel into the EU and the possible lifting of such restriction.
So for 9 days there should not be a blanket ban on the UK and after 9 days, sure.
posted by vacapinta at 8:02 AM on December 22, 2020 [2 favorites]
So for 9 days there should not be a blanket ban on the UK and after 9 days, sure.
posted by vacapinta at 8:02 AM on December 22, 2020 [2 favorites]
But on the other hand science takes time, if this strain is more threatening, by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it.
Carl von Clausewitz: "War is the province of uncertainty: three-fourths of those things upon which action in War must be calculated, are hidden more or less in the clouds of great uncertainty." Pandemics seem to be the same.
I had these same thoughts while listening to the video. There is a difference between validating a scientific "truth" and making decisions in the midst of a crisis. Still, I'm not making any decisions, so its of interest to me with regard to the "how freaked out should I be" question. Also, I'm pretty sure Raccaniello wouldn't disagree with the above. The arguments seem more relevant to personal anxiety levels than actual behavior. Everyone should be careful regardless.
posted by eagles123 at 8:43 AM on December 22, 2020 [2 favorites]
Carl von Clausewitz: "War is the province of uncertainty: three-fourths of those things upon which action in War must be calculated, are hidden more or less in the clouds of great uncertainty." Pandemics seem to be the same.
I had these same thoughts while listening to the video. There is a difference between validating a scientific "truth" and making decisions in the midst of a crisis. Still, I'm not making any decisions, so its of interest to me with regard to the "how freaked out should I be" question. Also, I'm pretty sure Raccaniello wouldn't disagree with the above. The arguments seem more relevant to personal anxiety levels than actual behavior. Everyone should be careful regardless.
posted by eagles123 at 8:43 AM on December 22, 2020 [2 favorites]
Coronavirus now in Antarctica - no news on which variant it is - but on all seven continents now so I guess we got a Bingo anyway?
posted by inflatablekiwi at 8:49 AM on December 22, 2020 [3 favorites]
posted by inflatablekiwi at 8:49 AM on December 22, 2020 [3 favorites]
So for 9 days there should not be a blanket ban on the UK and after 9 days, sure.
It's a recommendation so it means little.
posted by biffa at 9:21 AM on December 22, 2020
It's a recommendation so it means little.
posted by biffa at 9:21 AM on December 22, 2020
Meanwhile as UK government flaps around hopelessly Sikh humanitarian relief charity Khalsa Aid to come to the aid of lorry drivers currently trapped due to the closure of the border at Dover providing 800 curries to trapped drivers and the Salvation Army feed another 1,500.
posted by adamvasco at 2:44 PM on December 22, 2020 [7 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 2:44 PM on December 22, 2020 [7 favorites]
And the British Royals, William and Kate just broke the rules according to the. cough, Daily Mail...
posted by Windopaene at 3:47 PM on December 22, 2020
posted by Windopaene at 3:47 PM on December 22, 2020
But on the other hand science takes time, if this strain is more threatening, by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it.
A few points I would make about this, based on not only Racaniello's latest video (linked above) and the recent episode of This Week in Virology where they discussed the issue (which I linked early in the discussion), and also listening to every episode of This Week in Virology since about March:
* Panicked headlines about new and more dangerous mutations of the virus have appeared regularly since March. Literally every one has turned out to be a complete nothingburger.
* Because of the Founder Effect and the fact the COVID-19 is spread primarily via superspreading events (something like 80% of cases come from 10% of spreading events) it is completely EXPECTED that some certain virus variants will become widespread or even dominant in certain areas, despite the fact that these variants have no functional biological properties different from other virus variants in the area at the time
The difference between the widespread variant and the non-widespread is entirely a matter of luck rather than the result of any biological difference.
* Because of the previous fact, it is very difficult--and very often misleading--to simply use epidemiological data about the spread of one variant vs another to determine biological properties of the variant such as "this variant has some biological property that makes it spread more rapidly." Data showing that variant X spreads at a Y% faster rate than variant Z literally tells you nothing at all about the biological properties of variant X vs variant Z. We EXPECT to see large differences of this sort in the data, in the complete absence of any biological differences among the variants that would drive them.
* When you point to something you expect to find in epidemiological data as evidence of something new/unusual happening, this amounts to no evidence at all. At best it is "Hey this looks a little funny, let's follow it up to be sure." It is never, however, "Let's spread panicked headlines across global media."
* Scaremonger-y article and massive media coverage of things that later turn out to be nothingburgers is very, very damaging to the credibility of the media.
* Similarly for political leaders and countries that use these developments as justification for changes in policy, shutdowns, border closures, etc. If the measures are required by growth in cases in a certain region or country, then they are justified and you don't need to say more. But when you use a new, extremely tentative, highly sensationalized scientific result as one of the major reasons to justify your policy, and then when that result later does not pan out (as is probably 99% or more likely in this case) that ends up undermining your credibility, undermining the credibility of science and scientists, and feeding the anti-science, anti-mask/vaxx/etc groups.
And rightfully so. Because you have unnecessarily used a tenuous, unproven, sensationalized scientific hypothesis as your justification. When you could have arrived at the exact same measures using unimpeachable scientific evidence (ie, general info about the growth of cases). When the tenuous, unproven hypothesis (predictably) falls apart, your credibility falls apart along with it.
* As a culture we're spending our time and energy discussing a sensationalized nothingburger instead of 12 dozen things that are extremely serious and not in any doubt scientifically, but almost completely overlooked.
This whole thing falls under the category of slightly interesting thing scientists should and will spend some time checking out. And not in the sense that this one special thing is super-duper-pooper important to the exclusion of everything else, but rather as one single element of a landscape of roughly 90,000 known SARS-CoV2 isolates that have been identified so far.
* Even if the worst and most sensational claims about this variant are true, the consequences are minimal. Like the Rzero value for SARS-CoV-2 is somewhere between 2 and 3. The very worst predictions here are that this is a mutation that increases R value by somewhat less than 1. Say the Rzero value moves from 2.2 to 2.8. This is non-earthshattering at worst. It would mean that we continue doing what we are doing just as we are doing but perhaps a little more so.
If there were a mutation that moved the Rzero value from say 2.2 to 18.2--OK, that would be earthshattering. We are very, very far from earthshattering territory even at the most sensationalized.
* Specifically to the point "by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it":
Even if the very, very unlikely and very, very worst case happens (new form of the virus that spreads slightly faster than previous versions) your plan of attack is going to be EXACTLY THE SAME as before:
- Wear masks
- Physical distance
- Close gathering places, large gatherings, bars, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches, travel, etc etc etc etc in response to however much community spread you have in your region or country
- Continue with vaccinations as quickly as possible
Literally there is nothing you would do differently based on this new information. Scientists will continue to study it and there is a very, very small chance they will come up with something interesting. If they should happen to find something, they will at that point do what is necessary.
But there is literally nothing here to justify panicked headlines, extensive news stories filled with scaremongering and misinformation, politicians using the "scary development" to justify anything at all, etc etc etc.
All those are going to come back to bite us in the butt hard in the very, very, very likely case that this is yet another nothingburger.
posted by flug at 3:47 PM on December 22, 2020 [7 favorites]
A few points I would make about this, based on not only Racaniello's latest video (linked above) and the recent episode of This Week in Virology where they discussed the issue (which I linked early in the discussion), and also listening to every episode of This Week in Virology since about March:
* Panicked headlines about new and more dangerous mutations of the virus have appeared regularly since March. Literally every one has turned out to be a complete nothingburger.
* Because of the Founder Effect and the fact the COVID-19 is spread primarily via superspreading events (something like 80% of cases come from 10% of spreading events) it is completely EXPECTED that some certain virus variants will become widespread or even dominant in certain areas, despite the fact that these variants have no functional biological properties different from other virus variants in the area at the time
The difference between the widespread variant and the non-widespread is entirely a matter of luck rather than the result of any biological difference.
* Because of the previous fact, it is very difficult--and very often misleading--to simply use epidemiological data about the spread of one variant vs another to determine biological properties of the variant such as "this variant has some biological property that makes it spread more rapidly." Data showing that variant X spreads at a Y% faster rate than variant Z literally tells you nothing at all about the biological properties of variant X vs variant Z. We EXPECT to see large differences of this sort in the data, in the complete absence of any biological differences among the variants that would drive them.
* When you point to something you expect to find in epidemiological data as evidence of something new/unusual happening, this amounts to no evidence at all. At best it is "Hey this looks a little funny, let's follow it up to be sure." It is never, however, "Let's spread panicked headlines across global media."
* Scaremonger-y article and massive media coverage of things that later turn out to be nothingburgers is very, very damaging to the credibility of the media.
* Similarly for political leaders and countries that use these developments as justification for changes in policy, shutdowns, border closures, etc. If the measures are required by growth in cases in a certain region or country, then they are justified and you don't need to say more. But when you use a new, extremely tentative, highly sensationalized scientific result as one of the major reasons to justify your policy, and then when that result later does not pan out (as is probably 99% or more likely in this case) that ends up undermining your credibility, undermining the credibility of science and scientists, and feeding the anti-science, anti-mask/vaxx/etc groups.
And rightfully so. Because you have unnecessarily used a tenuous, unproven, sensationalized scientific hypothesis as your justification. When you could have arrived at the exact same measures using unimpeachable scientific evidence (ie, general info about the growth of cases). When the tenuous, unproven hypothesis (predictably) falls apart, your credibility falls apart along with it.
* As a culture we're spending our time and energy discussing a sensationalized nothingburger instead of 12 dozen things that are extremely serious and not in any doubt scientifically, but almost completely overlooked.
This whole thing falls under the category of slightly interesting thing scientists should and will spend some time checking out. And not in the sense that this one special thing is super-duper-pooper important to the exclusion of everything else, but rather as one single element of a landscape of roughly 90,000 known SARS-CoV2 isolates that have been identified so far.
* Even if the worst and most sensational claims about this variant are true, the consequences are minimal. Like the Rzero value for SARS-CoV-2 is somewhere between 2 and 3. The very worst predictions here are that this is a mutation that increases R value by somewhat less than 1. Say the Rzero value moves from 2.2 to 2.8. This is non-earthshattering at worst. It would mean that we continue doing what we are doing just as we are doing but perhaps a little more so.
If there were a mutation that moved the Rzero value from say 2.2 to 18.2--OK, that would be earthshattering. We are very, very far from earthshattering territory even at the most sensationalized.
* Specifically to the point "by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it":
Even if the very, very unlikely and very, very worst case happens (new form of the virus that spreads slightly faster than previous versions) your plan of attack is going to be EXACTLY THE SAME as before:
- Wear masks
- Physical distance
- Close gathering places, large gatherings, bars, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches, travel, etc etc etc etc in response to however much community spread you have in your region or country
- Continue with vaccinations as quickly as possible
Literally there is nothing you would do differently based on this new information. Scientists will continue to study it and there is a very, very small chance they will come up with something interesting. If they should happen to find something, they will at that point do what is necessary.
But there is literally nothing here to justify panicked headlines, extensive news stories filled with scaremongering and misinformation, politicians using the "scary development" to justify anything at all, etc etc etc.
All those are going to come back to bite us in the butt hard in the very, very, very likely case that this is yet another nothingburger.
posted by flug at 3:47 PM on December 22, 2020 [7 favorites]
> It's gotten colder but before that it was raining constantly,
Hmm, right there is a pretty compelling explanation for an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
Respiratory virus spread is highly impacted by relative humidity. The relevant relative humidity here is the humidity of indoor air. Higher relative humidity slows the spread significantly while low relatively humidity accelerates the spread.
Dry indoor air (due to forced air heating systems) is one of the leading explanations for the higher rate of spread of respiratory viruses and flu during winter months. Closer quarters plus lower relative humidity equals higher rate of transmission.
During a rainy patch with moderate outdoor temperatures, your indoor relative humidity is probably pretty high.
During a colder patch with no rain, the indoor humidity has gone down to nearly zero (when you warm up air that was anywhere near the freezing point, the humidity of the resulting warmed air is very close to 0%).
The effect of this mundane effect on virus replication is almost certainly in the same ballpark as or even larger than that the supposed "killer mutation". Also it is pretty well established vs almost completely speculative.
Where are the panicked headlines detailing and sweeping government edicts blamed on the deadly effect of the recent change in the weather?
posted by flug at 4:00 PM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
Hmm, right there is a pretty compelling explanation for an uptick in COVID-19 cases.
Respiratory virus spread is highly impacted by relative humidity. The relevant relative humidity here is the humidity of indoor air. Higher relative humidity slows the spread significantly while low relatively humidity accelerates the spread.
Dry indoor air (due to forced air heating systems) is one of the leading explanations for the higher rate of spread of respiratory viruses and flu during winter months. Closer quarters plus lower relative humidity equals higher rate of transmission.
During a rainy patch with moderate outdoor temperatures, your indoor relative humidity is probably pretty high.
During a colder patch with no rain, the indoor humidity has gone down to nearly zero (when you warm up air that was anywhere near the freezing point, the humidity of the resulting warmed air is very close to 0%).
The effect of this mundane effect on virus replication is almost certainly in the same ballpark as or even larger than that the supposed "killer mutation". Also it is pretty well established vs almost completely speculative.
Where are the panicked headlines detailing and sweeping government edicts blamed on the deadly effect of the recent change in the weather?
posted by flug at 4:00 PM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
I mean, you've written a lot here, but I don't think you've gone back to the primary sources. For example:
Dry indoor air (due to forced air heating systems) are almost unheard of in the UK.
The other refutations are covered upthread.
posted by ambrosen at 5:14 PM on December 22, 2020 [6 favorites]
Dry indoor air (due to forced air heating systems) are almost unheard of in the UK.
The other refutations are covered upthread.
posted by ambrosen at 5:14 PM on December 22, 2020 [6 favorites]
Winter damp is a fairly common issue in a lot of properties here, in fact (though rads will also dry out indoor air in a well-insulated house or flat).
posted by Dysk at 8:59 PM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 8:59 PM on December 22, 2020 [1 favorite]
Sky News: Anti-vaxxers 'targeting ethnic minorities and parents'. Long PDF report from the Centre for Countering Digital Hate.
Their strategy is simple. Exploit social media algorithms’ predilection for controversial and engaging content to hammer home three key messages -Covid isn’t dangerous; vaccines are dangerous; and mistrust of doctors, scientists and public health authorities. Despite the variety of styles, tones and themes employed by the anti-vaccine movement, every meme they share is in service to one of these three messages.posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:12 PM on December 22, 2020 [4 favorites]
Our response must be equally simple: to inoculate against misinformation by ignoring the individual memes generated by the anti-vaxx industry and instead focus on communicating our core message -one that has the benefit of being true:
1.Covid is deadly;
2.Vaccines are among the safest, most effective, most consequential human inventions in the past two centuries, saving countless lives from disease, disability and even death; and
3.Doctors, scientists and public health professionals chose those professions because they want to help people and better understand the world.
> Dry indoor air (due to forced air heating systems) are almost unheard of in the UK.
Ah then, the UK is some special snowflake type situation among northern hemisphere countries, that doesn't have a surge of respiratory infections November through February.
Oh wait, no. Per that graph, the UK could literally be the posterchild example of numerous respiratory infections starting to increase in November and peaking Dec-Feb each year. And one of the primary causes for that is known to be low indoor humidity in many/most indoor locations during that time of year.
> Winter damp is a fairly common issue in a lot of properties here
Which is nice for those units that actually have that problem (actually not, as damp is of course not all that nice--but for prevention of respiratory infection purposes it might in fact be helpful).
But first off, we know that respiratory infections do in fact spike Nov-Feb in the UK. So despite the existence of some or perhaps even very many Winter Damp situations across the U.K. still despite that something is causing respiratory virus transmission to blossom during those coldest winter months.
Second we know that home/household transmission isn't the the primary driver of these transmissions. So yes, some homes, flats, etc, have high indoor humidity during colder months. But . . . this is pretty well irrelevant for the larger virus transmission trends.
Third, a nice survey of offices in the UK taken during the month of February finds that average indoor relative humidity was 38%, and some offices were as low as 20%.
So sorry, but that's the literal opposite of winter damp. And it appears to be happening in most office type situations.
Even in the U.K.
What you have in a humid climate like UK is in, say, October outdoor relative humidity is high, temperatures are in the range say 7-14C, and only a moderate amount of indoor heating is necessary. So indoor humidity is at least moderately high everywhere--both in the potentially dry office type environments and in the Winter Damp situations.
But by December, typical U.K. temperatures are more in the 0-7C range so a lot more heat must be added indoors if you want to raise the indoor temperature to anywhere near 20C. So now your Winter Damp situations are more humid than ever but the winter-dry-office-and-large-building-type situations are now mostly in the 20-40% range for indoor relative humidity.
So you've gone from uniformly high indoor humidity (October) to a nice mix of quite high and quite low indoor humidity depending on your current indoor location (December). Of course November is the transition month between those two situations.
Unfortunately for spread of respiratory infections, the low-indoor-humidity situations tends to be offices, stores, schools, etc etc etc where more people tend to gather.
And what we see is the respiratory virus transmission is low in October, starts to rise in December, continues high through the middle of winter, and then reverses when the weather situation changes in Feb-March.
You're welcome to nitpick that but while you're doing so and point out some particular place you happen to know that has high humidity even when it's -5C out, but as you're doing that please explain why most respiratory infections in the U.K. increase somewhere between 2- and 9-fold over baseline in the Dec-Feb time frame.
And that graph looks strikingly--strikingly!--similar to the graph of COVID-19 cases in the U.K. by month. Looks like we're currently at about 8X the July-August baseline.
"Flug is going on and on about" this you are going to say.
But in fact this example rather perfectly illustrates my point:
But by all means, let's continue speculating about possible mutations and their possible effects--because they sound real scary and push a lot of our buttons, I guess.
posted by flug at 1:22 AM on December 23, 2020
Ah then, the UK is some special snowflake type situation among northern hemisphere countries, that doesn't have a surge of respiratory infections November through February.
Oh wait, no. Per that graph, the UK could literally be the posterchild example of numerous respiratory infections starting to increase in November and peaking Dec-Feb each year. And one of the primary causes for that is known to be low indoor humidity in many/most indoor locations during that time of year.
> Winter damp is a fairly common issue in a lot of properties here
Which is nice for those units that actually have that problem (actually not, as damp is of course not all that nice--but for prevention of respiratory infection purposes it might in fact be helpful).
But first off, we know that respiratory infections do in fact spike Nov-Feb in the UK. So despite the existence of some or perhaps even very many Winter Damp situations across the U.K. still despite that something is causing respiratory virus transmission to blossom during those coldest winter months.
Second we know that home/household transmission isn't the the primary driver of these transmissions. So yes, some homes, flats, etc, have high indoor humidity during colder months. But . . . this is pretty well irrelevant for the larger virus transmission trends.
Third, a nice survey of offices in the UK taken during the month of February finds that average indoor relative humidity was 38%, and some offices were as low as 20%.
So sorry, but that's the literal opposite of winter damp. And it appears to be happening in most office type situations.
Even in the U.K.
What you have in a humid climate like UK is in, say, October outdoor relative humidity is high, temperatures are in the range say 7-14C, and only a moderate amount of indoor heating is necessary. So indoor humidity is at least moderately high everywhere--both in the potentially dry office type environments and in the Winter Damp situations.
But by December, typical U.K. temperatures are more in the 0-7C range so a lot more heat must be added indoors if you want to raise the indoor temperature to anywhere near 20C. So now your Winter Damp situations are more humid than ever but the winter-dry-office-and-large-building-type situations are now mostly in the 20-40% range for indoor relative humidity.
So you've gone from uniformly high indoor humidity (October) to a nice mix of quite high and quite low indoor humidity depending on your current indoor location (December). Of course November is the transition month between those two situations.
Unfortunately for spread of respiratory infections, the low-indoor-humidity situations tends to be offices, stores, schools, etc etc etc where more people tend to gather.
And what we see is the respiratory virus transmission is low in October, starts to rise in December, continues high through the middle of winter, and then reverses when the weather situation changes in Feb-March.
You're welcome to nitpick that but while you're doing so and point out some particular place you happen to know that has high humidity even when it's -5C out, but as you're doing that please explain why most respiratory infections in the U.K. increase somewhere between 2- and 9-fold over baseline in the Dec-Feb time frame.
And that graph looks strikingly--strikingly!--similar to the graph of COVID-19 cases in the U.K. by month. Looks like we're currently at about 8X the July-August baseline.
"Flug is going on and on about" this you are going to say.
But in fact this example rather perfectly illustrates my point:
- International news coverage about Covid has been absolutely dominated by sensationalized coverage of the new virus variant for many days now. Yet the possibility of increased virulence of the variant is extremely tentative and speculative. The maximum effective of the new variant on virulence is relatively small. And no matter what the result of the scientific investigation of the new variant, there is literally nothing the average person can do as the result of all this discussion. Except feel even more anxious than before. And continue taking all the exact same precautions as before.
- By contrast, controlling the indoor humidity levels to between 40% and 60% during the cold-weather months is fairly well established to substantially lower transmission levels of many respiratory viruses, specifically including SARS-CoV-2. The effect is as large as or (probably) far larger than the largest hypothesized effect of the new variant. And most important, we can actually do something about indoor humidity levels.
But by all means, let's continue speculating about possible mutations and their possible effects--because they sound real scary and push a lot of our buttons, I guess.
posted by flug at 1:22 AM on December 23, 2020
But if it's weather and humidity, why are infection rates rising particularly in London and the South-East where this strain is dominant?
If it's weather and humidity, surely the North should be equally or even more affected?
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:54 AM on December 23, 2020 [3 favorites]
If it's weather and humidity, surely the North should be equally or even more affected?
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:54 AM on December 23, 2020 [3 favorites]
> I don't think you've gone back to the primary sources
Have you watched the Vincent Racaniello youtube video linked upthread? Because he spends the entire time discussion primary sources, first about basic virology facts and then specifically about information related to the new UK variant, including the NERVTAG report and then a very extended and detailed discussion of the specific changes in the UK variant's genome sequence, their location in the sequence, the proteins they may influence, and the probable ramifications of these particular changes.
My comment was simply a discussion of the some of the main points Racaniello makes and then, based on those points and my own observations about how this is playing out on mass media, some further omments.
I'm assuming--perhaps too optimistically--that people have actually watched Racaniello's video, paid attention to it, and seen how extensively and deeply it engages the primary materials relevant to this discussion.
I'm coming back into this discussion because early on I posted the link to the TWIV episode where they discussed the variant and concluded there is likely nothing new going on here. People responded by saying that so much new and important information had come out since the episode was recorded that should the TWIV scientists take the new information into account and comment again, surely they would change their minds.
So then Racaniello, host of the TWIV podcasts, posts a new video, discussing the issue at far greater length and taking into account all of the new information and primary sources that had become available since the first discussion and comes to the exact same conclusion in a more detailed and fully explained and referenced way.
But somehow and for some reason this, too, doesn't count.
Ok, whatever. Over and out . . .
posted by flug at 1:55 AM on December 23, 2020 [1 favorite]
Have you watched the Vincent Racaniello youtube video linked upthread? Because he spends the entire time discussion primary sources, first about basic virology facts and then specifically about information related to the new UK variant, including the NERVTAG report and then a very extended and detailed discussion of the specific changes in the UK variant's genome sequence, their location in the sequence, the proteins they may influence, and the probable ramifications of these particular changes.
My comment was simply a discussion of the some of the main points Racaniello makes and then, based on those points and my own observations about how this is playing out on mass media, some further omments.
I'm assuming--perhaps too optimistically--that people have actually watched Racaniello's video, paid attention to it, and seen how extensively and deeply it engages the primary materials relevant to this discussion.
I'm coming back into this discussion because early on I posted the link to the TWIV episode where they discussed the variant and concluded there is likely nothing new going on here. People responded by saying that so much new and important information had come out since the episode was recorded that should the TWIV scientists take the new information into account and comment again, surely they would change their minds.
So then Racaniello, host of the TWIV podcasts, posts a new video, discussing the issue at far greater length and taking into account all of the new information and primary sources that had become available since the first discussion and comes to the exact same conclusion in a more detailed and fully explained and referenced way.
But somehow and for some reason this, too, doesn't count.
Ok, whatever. Over and out . . .
posted by flug at 1:55 AM on December 23, 2020 [1 favorite]
I think you have some misapprehensions about UK climate, housing stock, and typical heating patterns, flug. In my experience, you're far more likely to encounter dry indoor air in October than December, and people absolutely don't tend to put "moderate" amounts of heating on when it's 10 degrees out, they run it pretty hard, because of how poorly insulated houses are here.
None of this is a comment on the virus strain, virology, whatever. But you're not making a particularly good case with lecturing a bunch of UK a mefites about UK climate, heating patterns, and housing stock, because there's a good bit you seem to have misunderstood.
posted by Dysk at 3:23 AM on December 23, 2020 [10 favorites]
None of this is a comment on the virus strain, virology, whatever. But you're not making a particularly good case with lecturing a bunch of UK a mefites about UK climate, heating patterns, and housing stock, because there's a good bit you seem to have misunderstood.
posted by Dysk at 3:23 AM on December 23, 2020 [10 favorites]
If the point is to be wise when evaluating information sources, the CDC page says UK scientists were concerned because of the speed at which it appeared, and mainstream news like NPR/NYtimes mention their conclusions came from computer modeling, not epidemiological data. Racaniellio does not bring up either of these in his video.
posted by polymodus at 4:35 AM on December 23, 2020 [2 favorites]
posted by polymodus at 4:35 AM on December 23, 2020 [2 favorites]
Whilst the video may be in depth, I don't think you're doing it any favours by trying to explain our own housing to us and getting it wrong. And I'm sure humidity plays a part, but I'm also sure that the shit weather leading people to crowd together indoors also plays a part in winter respiratory illnesses.
I also just want to say, as a UK Mefite, I am slightly disappointed that this thread has just turned into Americans being backseat epidemiologists. I'm totally open to the idea that this will turn out to be nothing, but let's at least acknowledge that there ARE some competent UK scientists involved in this and its not only media bullshit, just the media overreacting to a potential R increase of 0.4.
posted by stillnocturnal at 4:39 AM on December 23, 2020 [16 favorites]
I also just want to say, as a UK Mefite, I am slightly disappointed that this thread has just turned into Americans being backseat epidemiologists. I'm totally open to the idea that this will turn out to be nothing, but let's at least acknowledge that there ARE some competent UK scientists involved in this and its not only media bullshit, just the media overreacting to a potential R increase of 0.4.
posted by stillnocturnal at 4:39 AM on December 23, 2020 [16 favorites]
It's hard not to interpret Racaniellio's video as insinuating that the people at NERVTAG are incompetent, they used epidemiological data, never do that
posted by polymodus at 4:43 AM on December 23, 2020
posted by polymodus at 4:43 AM on December 23, 2020
The trouble is it's backseat virologists telling the epidemiologists that there's no cast-iron virological proof that their clear epidemiological evidence is right. And also it's people who are confusing the size of south east England with South Dakota. And who are, more understandably, confusing the coverage of COG-UK Consortium's sequencing project with, to be honest, the coverage of virtually every other country's covid genome sequencing coverage.
posted by ambrosen at 5:23 AM on December 23, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by ambrosen at 5:23 AM on December 23, 2020 [1 favorite]
continuing to probe this moistery...
We have a dehumidifier in our flat and a few cheapo Amazon-special digital temperature/humidity sensors. It's noteworthy if any of them indicate below 50% relative humidity, and that's with the dehumidifier pumping a few litres of water out of the air each day.
We didn't always have these instruments, which to be fair haven't been calibrated by the NPL. That said, your typical middle-American dry winter crackle of static electricity between your sheets or your clothes? In my experience, there's nothing close to it here.
While the big, dry apartment building situation in London may be somewhat comparable to e.g. NYC (though I rather doubt it --- go take a Street View tour and decide), it certainly ain't so in Kent! Big office buildings are also much emptier these days. Really, I think most of us here are having a damp time at home.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 5:38 AM on December 23, 2020 [4 favorites]
But by December, typical U.K. temperatures are more in the 0-7C range so a lot more heat must be added indoors if you want to raise the indoor temperature to anywhere near 20C. So now your Winter Damp situations are more humid than ever but the winter-dry-office-and-large-building-type situations are now mostly in the 20-40% range for indoor relative humidity.Typical notwithstanding, it's been mostly between 8 and 15 degrees in London since early November, I think, with a dip at the beginning of December. Then again, I've been indoors this entire time.
We have a dehumidifier in our flat and a few cheapo Amazon-special digital temperature/humidity sensors. It's noteworthy if any of them indicate below 50% relative humidity, and that's with the dehumidifier pumping a few litres of water out of the air each day.
We didn't always have these instruments, which to be fair haven't been calibrated by the NPL. That said, your typical middle-American dry winter crackle of static electricity between your sheets or your clothes? In my experience, there's nothing close to it here.
While the big, dry apartment building situation in London may be somewhat comparable to e.g. NYC (though I rather doubt it --- go take a Street View tour and decide), it certainly ain't so in Kent! Big office buildings are also much emptier these days. Really, I think most of us here are having a damp time at home.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 5:38 AM on December 23, 2020 [4 favorites]
New announcement that from boxing day, quite a lot of new territories going out to Tier 3 and Tier 4. No more tier 1. Isle of Wight goes straight from tier 1 to 3.
posted by biffa at 7:56 AM on December 23, 2020
posted by biffa at 7:56 AM on December 23, 2020
* Even if the worst and most sensational claims about this variant are true, the consequences are minimal. Like the Rzero value for SARS-CoV-2 is somewhere between 2 and 3. The very worst predictions here are that this is a mutation that increases R value by somewhat less than 1. Say the Rzero value moves from 2.2 to 2.8. This is non-earthshattering at worst. It would mean that we continue doing what we are doing just as we are doing but perhaps a little more so.
If there were a mutation that moved the Rzero value from say 2.2 to 18.2--OK, that would be earthshattering. We are very, very far from earthshattering territory even at the most sensationalized.
* Specifically to the point "by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it":
Even if the very, very unlikely and very, very worst case happens (new form of the virus that spreads slightly faster than previous versions) your plan of attack is going to be EXACTLY THE SAME as before:
- Wear masks
- Physical distance
- Close gathering places, large gatherings, bars, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches, travel, etc etc etc etc in response to however much community spread you have in your region or country
- Continue with vaccinations as quickly as possible
Literally there is nothing you would do differently based on this new information. Scientists will continue to study it and there is a very, very small chance they will come up with something interesting. If they should happen to find something, they will at that point do what is necessary.
Sure, that's the case for what I personally should do which is not to mix with people indoors. The point is that a set of restrictions which includes everything on your list except for school closures (i.e. the tier 3 restrictions) had, until very recently, been working in that it was consistently able to bring r to just under 1. I agree that even if this indeed a new strain, it is only taking r up a little but that little means that the "everything but the schools" strategy will no longer hold the line. Remember that the consequence here is not the relative difference in the uncontrolled r0 but in the post control measure r. Since that number was just below 1 with the strictest previous restrictions (which, again, allowed schools to remain open), a small increase would put you over 1 which means new measures are required. It's like how a small amount of extra money may lead to much bigger proportional difference in disposable income.
I see that you are in a place where perhaps school opening and closing has worked in a different way than it has here, but the difference between "everything but the schools closes" and "schools also close" is really a pretty big one even if the change in r is pretty small. It's also worth noting that a relatively small difference in r between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza made all the careful pandemic flu plans completely useless
I'm coming back into this discussion because early on I posted the link to the TWIV episode where they discussed the variant and concluded there is likely nothing new going on here. People responded by saying that so much new and important information had come out since the episode was recorded that should the TWIV scientists take the new information into account and comment again, surely they would change their minds.
So then Racaniello, host of the TWIV podcasts, posts a new video, discussing the issue at far greater length and taking into account all of the new information and primary sources that had become available since the first discussion and comes to the exact same conclusion in a more detailed and fully explained and referenced way.
Of course I watched it, as I consume everything in the Racaniello-verse, and I'm sure that scientifically he's completely right as an academic scientist and a virologist - the evidence is not really conclusive and allowing Christmas mixing was madness to begin with so it should have been cancelled anyway.
I will note though that NERVTAG also has many very experienced virologists, epidemiologists, modellers, and clinical public health people on it - some of whom have been interviewed on TWiV.
In a sense, none of this matters since:
From an epistemic point of view all anyone can say is different degrees of maybe.
From a policy making point of view, none of us are doing that and if we were we would be listening to our appointed medical and scientific advisors. (and the right thing to do would in any case be to restrict Christmas mixing in areas with rising cases, new strain or not).
Form a personal behaviour point of view, none of us should be treating the rules, current or existing as being anything more than an outermost limit so for many of us this won't have changed our plans.
Certainly nobody should be reading popular press coverage of this unless they want to keep their blood pressure up and their IQ down.
posted by atrazine at 8:09 AM on December 23, 2020 [5 favorites]
If there were a mutation that moved the Rzero value from say 2.2 to 18.2--OK, that would be earthshattering. We are very, very far from earthshattering territory even at the most sensationalized.
* Specifically to the point "by the time we have more solid data it would be too late to start doing anything about it":
Even if the very, very unlikely and very, very worst case happens (new form of the virus that spreads slightly faster than previous versions) your plan of attack is going to be EXACTLY THE SAME as before:
- Wear masks
- Physical distance
- Close gathering places, large gatherings, bars, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches, travel, etc etc etc etc in response to however much community spread you have in your region or country
- Continue with vaccinations as quickly as possible
Literally there is nothing you would do differently based on this new information. Scientists will continue to study it and there is a very, very small chance they will come up with something interesting. If they should happen to find something, they will at that point do what is necessary.
Sure, that's the case for what I personally should do which is not to mix with people indoors. The point is that a set of restrictions which includes everything on your list except for school closures (i.e. the tier 3 restrictions) had, until very recently, been working in that it was consistently able to bring r to just under 1. I agree that even if this indeed a new strain, it is only taking r up a little but that little means that the "everything but the schools" strategy will no longer hold the line. Remember that the consequence here is not the relative difference in the uncontrolled r0 but in the post control measure r. Since that number was just below 1 with the strictest previous restrictions (which, again, allowed schools to remain open), a small increase would put you over 1 which means new measures are required. It's like how a small amount of extra money may lead to much bigger proportional difference in disposable income.
I see that you are in a place where perhaps school opening and closing has worked in a different way than it has here, but the difference between "everything but the schools closes" and "schools also close" is really a pretty big one even if the change in r is pretty small. It's also worth noting that a relatively small difference in r between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza made all the careful pandemic flu plans completely useless
I'm coming back into this discussion because early on I posted the link to the TWIV episode where they discussed the variant and concluded there is likely nothing new going on here. People responded by saying that so much new and important information had come out since the episode was recorded that should the TWIV scientists take the new information into account and comment again, surely they would change their minds.
So then Racaniello, host of the TWIV podcasts, posts a new video, discussing the issue at far greater length and taking into account all of the new information and primary sources that had become available since the first discussion and comes to the exact same conclusion in a more detailed and fully explained and referenced way.
Of course I watched it, as I consume everything in the Racaniello-verse, and I'm sure that scientifically he's completely right as an academic scientist and a virologist - the evidence is not really conclusive and allowing Christmas mixing was madness to begin with so it should have been cancelled anyway.
I will note though that NERVTAG also has many very experienced virologists, epidemiologists, modellers, and clinical public health people on it - some of whom have been interviewed on TWiV.
In a sense, none of this matters since:
From an epistemic point of view all anyone can say is different degrees of maybe.
From a policy making point of view, none of us are doing that and if we were we would be listening to our appointed medical and scientific advisors. (and the right thing to do would in any case be to restrict Christmas mixing in areas with rising cases, new strain or not).
Form a personal behaviour point of view, none of us should be treating the rules, current or existing as being anything more than an outermost limit so for many of us this won't have changed our plans.
Certainly nobody should be reading popular press coverage of this unless they want to keep their blood pressure up and their IQ down.
posted by atrazine at 8:09 AM on December 23, 2020 [5 favorites]
“Bristol, Gloucestershire, Somerset including the North Somerset council area, Swindon, the Isle of Wight, the New Forest and Northamptonshire as well as Cheshire and Warrington will all be escalated to Tier 3.”It's all pretty moot, because I'm not going out, but it's annoying that Hancock's gone to an announcement without the full list being published, because it'd be nice to know whether where I live (Bath & North East Somerset) is included in the list.
It is a surprisingly competent speech by Hancock.
posted by ambrosen at 8:13 AM on December 23, 2020
Of note, the introduction of a new, rapidly spreading variant (fig B) is able to explain large surges of hospitalisations in the East of England, London, and South East which are otherwise difficult to account for (fig A). NOT PEER REVIEWED 8/9
This puts a lot of numbers into the intuition. Assuming you're happy with the numbers they use for contact rates. And assuming they didn't overlook some other distinguishing factor for the same time+regions.
The regional growth during the last week of national lockdown 2 was a big open question. We have a fantastic amount of data on the spread of this variant - mass sequencing, characteristic failure of the "S target" in our PCR tests, and the most PCR testing in Europe. The way it seems to line up rings a big alarm.
Direct link: Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
[...] the impact of vaccinating 200,000 people per week—similar in magnitude to the rates reached in December 2020—may be relatively small (Fig. 5). An accelerated uptake of 2 million people vaccinated per week is predicted to have a much more substantial impact. The most stringent intervention scenario with Tier 4 England-wide and schools closed during January, and 2 million individuals vaccinated per week, is the only scenario we considered which reduces peak ICU burden below the levels seen during the first wave (Table 1).
:'-(. 50-75% higher transmissibility is hard. Presumably the authors had reason to hope for the higher vaccination rate, i.e. from the Oxford vaccine.
posted by sourcejedi at 4:34 PM on December 23, 2020 [4 favorites]
This puts a lot of numbers into the intuition. Assuming you're happy with the numbers they use for contact rates. And assuming they didn't overlook some other distinguishing factor for the same time+regions.
The regional growth during the last week of national lockdown 2 was a big open question. We have a fantastic amount of data on the spread of this variant - mass sequencing, characteristic failure of the "S target" in our PCR tests, and the most PCR testing in Europe. The way it seems to line up rings a big alarm.
Direct link: Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
[...] the impact of vaccinating 200,000 people per week—similar in magnitude to the rates reached in December 2020—may be relatively small (Fig. 5). An accelerated uptake of 2 million people vaccinated per week is predicted to have a much more substantial impact. The most stringent intervention scenario with Tier 4 England-wide and schools closed during January, and 2 million individuals vaccinated per week, is the only scenario we considered which reduces peak ICU burden below the levels seen during the first wave (Table 1).
:'-(. 50-75% higher transmissibility is hard. Presumably the authors had reason to hope for the higher vaccination rate, i.e. from the Oxford vaccine.
posted by sourcejedi at 4:34 PM on December 23, 2020 [4 favorites]
I am slightly disappointed that this thread has just turned into Americans being backseat epidemiologists. I'm totally open to the idea that this will turn out to be nothing, but let's at least acknowledge that there ARE some competent UK scientists involved in this and its not only media bullshit, just the media overreacting to a potential R increase of 0.4.
QFT and understatement. Even as an Irish person I respect that about British culture.
posted by roolya_boolya at 5:46 PM on December 23, 2020 [10 favorites]
QFT and understatement. Even as an Irish person I respect that about British culture.
posted by roolya_boolya at 5:46 PM on December 23, 2020 [10 favorites]
It's almost as if the Americans don't trust government medical authorities now for some strange reason
posted by benzenedream at 12:32 AM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
posted by benzenedream at 12:32 AM on December 24, 2020 [4 favorites]
First case of new Covid-19 variant found in France as cases rise
France recorded its first case of the new variant of coronavirus, as the number of cases and deaths from Covid-19 mounted in the country, increasing concerns of a new wave of the virus hitting the euro zone’s second-biggest economy.posted by roolya_boolya at 3:09 AM on December 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
The French health ministry said a Frenchman who recently arrived back in France from London had tested positive for the new variant of the coronavirus.
“Close gathering places, large gatherings, bars, restaurants, businesses, schools, churches, travel, etc etc etc etc in response to however much community spread you have in your region or country”
These are massive restrictions to impose, and the fact you are so blasé about them makes me think you maybe live somewhere where this hasn’t happened?
From March to September, all UK schools and private childcare providers were closed by law. It was illegal for family members to provide informal childcare between March and June. This had a disproportionate impact on working mothers, many of whom lost their jobs.
We were allowed out for one hour, to shop for essential food and to exercise. All other businesses, nationwide, were shut. Police patrolled to check why you were outdoors - I was approached in the park with my two year old and told we were not exercising in an approved way (he was chasing a ball). You certainly couldn’t visit family or friends, even outdoors, or travel out of your county. Many European countries were under even stricter restrictions.
Of course nobody wants to go back to that, and of course people are anxious about anything that might make that level of restriction necessary again. It’s completely different from the current “no large indoor gatherings” restrictions, even in Tier 4. And frankly it’s very different from what was imposed in the US, and Americans lecturing us on what a minor inconvenience it is does not go down well. Come back when you have had police outside Walmart checking your shopping cart for “non-essential” items, or threatening your children for playing in your backyard.
posted by tinkletown at 9:12 PM on December 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
These are massive restrictions to impose, and the fact you are so blasé about them makes me think you maybe live somewhere where this hasn’t happened?
From March to September, all UK schools and private childcare providers were closed by law. It was illegal for family members to provide informal childcare between March and June. This had a disproportionate impact on working mothers, many of whom lost their jobs.
We were allowed out for one hour, to shop for essential food and to exercise. All other businesses, nationwide, were shut. Police patrolled to check why you were outdoors - I was approached in the park with my two year old and told we were not exercising in an approved way (he was chasing a ball). You certainly couldn’t visit family or friends, even outdoors, or travel out of your county. Many European countries were under even stricter restrictions.
Of course nobody wants to go back to that, and of course people are anxious about anything that might make that level of restriction necessary again. It’s completely different from the current “no large indoor gatherings” restrictions, even in Tier 4. And frankly it’s very different from what was imposed in the US, and Americans lecturing us on what a minor inconvenience it is does not go down well. Come back when you have had police outside Walmart checking your shopping cart for “non-essential” items, or threatening your children for playing in your backyard.
posted by tinkletown at 9:12 PM on December 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
Come back when you have had police outside Walmart checking your shopping cart for “non-essential” items
This was never policy, and only happened for a couple of days in one county in England, after which the responsible officers were given a bollocking from anyone willing to talk to a reporter. This is not an accurate portrayal of the first, or any other, UK lockdown.
posted by Dysk at 11:20 PM on December 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
This was never policy, and only happened for a couple of days in one county in England, after which the responsible officers were given a bollocking from anyone willing to talk to a reporter. This is not an accurate portrayal of the first, or any other, UK lockdown.
posted by Dysk at 11:20 PM on December 26, 2020 [2 favorites]
It may not have been official policy, but it was happening (the checking of baskets and patrolling of Easter Egg aisles was two different forces, Cambridge and Northamptonshire), as were the daily police patrols around London parks, Welsh officers enforcing closing of supermarket aisles (which was definitely official policy), roadblocks, and checks at rail stations. Oh yes, and the police drones following people home, how could I forget that one? It was not “just one officer”.
I have no idea where you live Dysk, but I experienced police enforcement almost daily, just going to work (in a hospital). Plus “unofficial” enforcement from the general public. We also experienced harassment in the park, for taking our perfectly legal daily exercise (we live in an apartment with no garden). The attitude was very much that it might be technically legal, but we still shouldn’t be doing it. It was really oppressive.
posted by tinkletown at 2:16 AM on December 27, 2020 [3 favorites]
I have no idea where you live Dysk, but I experienced police enforcement almost daily, just going to work (in a hospital). Plus “unofficial” enforcement from the general public. We also experienced harassment in the park, for taking our perfectly legal daily exercise (we live in an apartment with no garden). The attitude was very much that it might be technically legal, but we still shouldn’t be doing it. It was really oppressive.
posted by tinkletown at 2:16 AM on December 27, 2020 [3 favorites]
This is a weird thread; the comments about British housing are somewhere between bizarre and hilarious.
+ + + + +
Currently in the suburbs of Birmingham, where I've been in my hideaway since early November. It's a good place to be bolted down in, as there's an array of food options and I'm a very short train journey (on frequent and oft-deserted trains) to a few services I need. That's all I need for the winter; everything else I can do online.
Mask wearing in shops is varies tremendously. At one end is the Marks and Spencer food hall, where all staff and customers wear masks and no-one acts like a dick. Somewhere in the middle is the Co-op, though they've gotten better since I complained (with photos) to their head office, mainly about the staff e.g. the one who had cut a hole in her mask so she could smoke through it at break time. At the far end is the local Tesco Express which, despite a huge poster up telling people to wear masks, no staff and few customers do.
So I don't go in that one. I'm mainly in the aforementioned M&S, plus two local shops which are relatively sensible and safe.
I have no accurate idea about non-food shops; most places e.g. nail bars, coffee shops, clothes shops, seem to be open though I've noticed, looking through windows, areas of goods being cordened off in some. Not sure this is consistent.
There is some law enforcement; I've seen a few people get cautioned, and one arrested, for combinations of not wearing a mask or adhering to whatever today's tier rules are. I was pleased that a near-neighbour also got fined for having a very obvious party, and another has also gotten a visit from the police for having what looked like many relatives/friends over for Christmas dinner. I was warned off by the police from using outdoor park gym equipment during the first lockdown (despite antiseptic wipedowns and wearing double gloves), and was stopped a few times to be asked what I was doing ("Having a walk. Until you stopped me to ask what I was doing").
But in terms of going into buildings with strangers I'm nope on everything except food shops, my local pharmacy where safety and mask adherance is pleasingly strict, and the aforementioned services. In the streets mask adherance is low; about 1 in 10. On pavements my mask stays on; whatever the tiers and rules, and in the suburbs it's staying on until (at the earliest) I have lovely vaccine flowing through my veins.
posted by Wordshore at 1:44 AM on December 28, 2020 [4 favorites]
+ + + + +
Currently in the suburbs of Birmingham, where I've been in my hideaway since early November. It's a good place to be bolted down in, as there's an array of food options and I'm a very short train journey (on frequent and oft-deserted trains) to a few services I need. That's all I need for the winter; everything else I can do online.
Mask wearing in shops is varies tremendously. At one end is the Marks and Spencer food hall, where all staff and customers wear masks and no-one acts like a dick. Somewhere in the middle is the Co-op, though they've gotten better since I complained (with photos) to their head office, mainly about the staff e.g. the one who had cut a hole in her mask so she could smoke through it at break time. At the far end is the local Tesco Express which, despite a huge poster up telling people to wear masks, no staff and few customers do.
So I don't go in that one. I'm mainly in the aforementioned M&S, plus two local shops which are relatively sensible and safe.
I have no accurate idea about non-food shops; most places e.g. nail bars, coffee shops, clothes shops, seem to be open though I've noticed, looking through windows, areas of goods being cordened off in some. Not sure this is consistent.
There is some law enforcement; I've seen a few people get cautioned, and one arrested, for combinations of not wearing a mask or adhering to whatever today's tier rules are. I was pleased that a near-neighbour also got fined for having a very obvious party, and another has also gotten a visit from the police for having what looked like many relatives/friends over for Christmas dinner. I was warned off by the police from using outdoor park gym equipment during the first lockdown (despite antiseptic wipedowns and wearing double gloves), and was stopped a few times to be asked what I was doing ("Having a walk. Until you stopped me to ask what I was doing").
But in terms of going into buildings with strangers I'm nope on everything except food shops, my local pharmacy where safety and mask adherance is pleasingly strict, and the aforementioned services. In the streets mask adherance is low; about 1 in 10. On pavements my mask stays on; whatever the tiers and rules, and in the suburbs it's staying on until (at the earliest) I have lovely vaccine flowing through my veins.
posted by Wordshore at 1:44 AM on December 28, 2020 [4 favorites]
I know you're intending to portray your experience as a terrible dytopia tinkletown, but from the USA "what coronavirus?" perspective it sounds fantastically competent (if oppressive) for pandemic management. I really wish we had people getting ridiculously large fines, shopkeepers getting their licenses yanked, and mass shaming happening. Instead there is mostly a collective shrug even from well meaning nonTrumpers who think an absence of restrictions means everything not explicitly forbidden is safe.
posted by benzenedream at 11:11 PM on December 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
posted by benzenedream at 11:11 PM on December 28, 2020 [1 favorite]
I really wish we had people getting ridiculously large fines, shopkeepers getting their licenses yanked, and mass shaming happening
This period of giving-a-shit only lasted about a month before the same people fuming about others sunbathing alone in the park decided they were bored of staying indoors too, and now the same people are all "the rules are too complicated to follow" and do whatever they like.
Likewise a lot of it was middle class suburban white people with big houses and big gardens complaining (relatively speaking) about urban/brown/poor people being reckless by e.g. going for a walk outdoors, while they were simultaneously inviting their neighbours over for tea.
posted by grahamparks at 5:45 AM on December 29, 2020 [4 favorites]
This period of giving-a-shit only lasted about a month before the same people fuming about others sunbathing alone in the park decided they were bored of staying indoors too, and now the same people are all "the rules are too complicated to follow" and do whatever they like.
Likewise a lot of it was middle class suburban white people with big houses and big gardens complaining (relatively speaking) about urban/brown/poor people being reckless by e.g. going for a walk outdoors, while they were simultaneously inviting their neighbours over for tea.
posted by grahamparks at 5:45 AM on December 29, 2020 [4 favorites]
The new variant of COVID is associated with higher viral load (PDF paper) but doesn't appear to have a higher fatality rate so far (PDF briefing paper).
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:58 PM on December 29, 2020 [8 favorites]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:58 PM on December 29, 2020 [8 favorites]
I am not enjoying this graph of Scotland's cases. It was looking so promising before the end of December.
The vaccination tracker gives me warm feelings though, another couple of weeks and we might have more people vaccinated than cases.
posted by stillnocturnal at 10:19 AM on December 31, 2020
The vaccination tracker gives me warm feelings though, another couple of weeks and we might have more people vaccinated than cases.
posted by stillnocturnal at 10:19 AM on December 31, 2020
Two new research studies released today (not yet peer reviewed) that use different statistical methods but both find the B.1.1.7 variant is about 50% more transmissible than wild type:
Trevor Bedford also feels the evidence is now quite strong for increased transmission of the B.1.1.7 variant.
posted by mbrubeck at 10:29 AM on December 31, 2020 [5 favorites]
- Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data
- Lineage-specific growth of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 during the English national lockdown
Trevor Bedford also feels the evidence is now quite strong for increased transmission of the B.1.1.7 variant.
posted by mbrubeck at 10:29 AM on December 31, 2020 [5 favorites]
The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb
There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.[Zeynep Tufekci in the Atlantic]
There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.[Zeynep Tufekci in the Atlantic]
Maybe—just maybe—this variant will turn out to be a false alarm, not nearly as transmissible as we feared. We will know soon enough. Our precautions will still be net positives. But if it is indeed much more transmissible, we may face a true tragedy: exponential growth with massive numbers of illnesses and deaths just as highly effective vaccines are being made available. We’ve had a year to learn—about the importance of early action, of acting decisively even in the face of uncertainty, of not confusing absence of evidence with evidence of absence. A year to learn to aim not for perfection in knowledge but for maximal impact even while considering the trade-offs. And most important, a year to learn to not wait when faced with threats with exponential dynamics but to act as early and as decisively as we can—and to adjust and tamper later, if warranted.posted by roolya_boolya at 1:08 PM on December 31, 2020 [6 favorites]
From the BBC today: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7'
posted by oulipian at 8:13 AM on January 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by oulipian at 8:13 AM on January 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
Whether it's a virus, grain of rice, or compound interest: exponential growth terrifies me.
i'm scared.
posted by abuckamoon at 6:05 PM on January 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
i'm scared.
posted by abuckamoon at 6:05 PM on January 1, 2021 [1 favorite]
Wrong COVID timeline showing UK denialist claims and real events.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:13 AM on January 5, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:13 AM on January 5, 2021 [1 favorite]
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posted by MrGuilt at 7:35 AM on December 20, 2020 [10 favorites]