Iowa Democrat Launches Senate Run

May 24, 2021 7:37 AM

A farmer from Crawford County with a family history of winning as a Democrat in rural Western Iowa announced his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat held by Chuck Grassley today. Dave Muhlbauer, a recent county supervisor and fifth-generation family farmer, kicked off his bid with a video that sought to redefine to Iowa voters what a rural Democrat looks like.
posted by Bella Donna (37 comments total)

I wish him luck. I only wish it were possible to run for office in the Midwest without repeating, and giving credence to, that Republican propaganda about “Democrats have abandoned the working class”.

It for damn sure ain’t the Republicans that are fighting for unions, workman’s comp, unemployment insurance, expanded access to health care, workplace safety, raising the minimum wage, fair labor standards, social security solvency, clean air and water, etc., etc., etc.
posted by darkstar at 8:19 AM on May 24, 2021 [20 favorites]

This state has let me down so many times over the last 10 years I almost don't want to read about the guy and get my hopes up.
posted by TrialByMedia at 8:39 AM on May 24, 2021 [13 favorites]

Eh I feel like this happens every couple years ("For immediate release: THIS Democrat runs cultural messaging like a rural republican - wow!!!") see also Randy Bryce, Amy McGrath, etc. Complete with boring slideshow campaign ad that hits every corny beat - picture of Diner Waitress! Stock photo of dirty hands! - it's like it was made by a machine-learning algorithm called "Political Ad".

Hopefully the algorithm works this time, I mean I'm obviously pulling for the guy, but I can't possibly be the only one who is just completely desensitized to this stuff...
posted by windbox at 8:49 AM on May 24, 2021 [18 favorites]

I grew up in Iowa and my father and sister still live there. My dad worked really hard for democratic U.S. House candidate J.D. Scholten, a great guy who ran an incredible Wellstonian grass-roots campaign, barnstorming all over NW Iowa in a Winnebago. He'd talk to anyone and everyone who would talk to him. He exceeded all expectations but still lost by a few points to the utterly repugnant racist Steve King in 2018. Two years later King lost his primary to someone that says the racist stuff a little quieter but is definitely just as crappy. Scholten ran another good campaign but lost by even more.

State-wide races in Iowa are a little easier, as that district is the reddest in the state at something like R+11, and I wish him well. But Iowa is on a very very bad Red State trend and I'm pretty skeptical there's anything turning that ship around. Racist-nationalist messaging, along with wedge issue tactics, are really effective with the aging rural crowd there, and are dooming Iowa politically pretty badly. It's a very sad state, pun intended.

Fingers crossed, but I'm more hopeful for Ohio than Iowa these days. And that's saying something, because Ohio is a mess.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:58 AM on May 24, 2021 [22 favorites]

That was disappointing.

Dude, you're running for US Senate. Millions are probably going to get spent on the campaign. You can spend a little more and get someone to close caption your opening video.
posted by Fukiyama at 8:59 AM on May 24, 2021 [8 favorites]

Hey, that guy sent me a fundraising email today. It went something like this:

box, I'm Dave Muhlbauer. I'm a farmer in Iowa who raises hogs and cattle, corn, beans, and alfalfa, and I'm running for U.S. Senate. Let me tell you why:

Republican Senator Chuck Grassley has been in office for over 40 years. And throughout Grassley's four decades in office, Iowans have endured extreme economic hardship and witnessed generational disinvestment in our communities.

You don't have to look hard for proof: Health care is inaccessible and expensive, climate change-related disasters, like last year's derecho, have become more frequent, and the minimum wage is wholly insufficient for a working family.

Through these periods of crisis and stagnation, Iowans have been holding tough and waiting for politicians to deliver the support we've desperately needed. Grassley has all but ensured that support never arrived.

box, I'm done waiting.

Please take a few minutes to watch my announcement video, and if you like what you hear, stick around and help me flip this battleground Senate seat.

WATCH NOW

This isn't just about what Chuck Grassley hasn't done. This is about my personal commitment to Iowa that spans over five generations.

I live in Manning, Iowa with my wife, Linda, and our three kids Chas, Ava, and Roslyn. So when I say we need to invest in midwestern communities and create opportunity for our kids: I mean it because it's personal.

I operate our family farm where we grow corn, beans, and alfalfa and raise hogs and cattle. As a fifth-generation farming family, we know the destruction of climate change first hand. That's why I'm committed to reversing climate change and preserving our land for our kids' kids.

I'm also deeply indebted to our communities. After all, without the help of our neighbors, family, and friends, countless harvests would've been lost. I'm in this race for working families because they've always had my back -- through thick and thin.

But there's plenty of time to get to know one another -- for now, watch my announcement video and let me know if you're in this fight with me.

WATCH NOW

I hope you'll join us, there's a lot of work to do and we can't win power for working people without your help.

Thanks,

Dave Muhlbauer
posted by box at 9:04 AM on May 24, 2021 [7 favorites]

it's like it was made by a machine-learning algorithm called "Political Ad".

For all intents and purposes...it was.

These campaigns pull huge donations from across the country. People love these feel-good windmill tilts.

I don't doubt Muhlbauer is a good guy, but we need more than a "good guy". We need a firebrand. We need someone who's not going to pull punches.

Don't use the passive voice of "we've been left behind." Put the blame squarely on the opposition. Explain how Grassley has fucked Iowa (and America) over. Explain what you're going to do.

And for fuck's sake, expose the hypocrisy of Republicans running for office under the philosophy that government can't work. You wouldn't go to a oncologist who thought chemo doesn't work. You wouldn't go to a gym owned by someone who thinks exercise doesn't work. Elect people who believe in making government work!
posted by explosion at 9:12 AM on May 24, 2021 [15 favorites]

If a Democratic firebrand can win a Senate seat in Iowa, I would strongly encourage one to run against this dude in the primary. But I don't like their chances. (To be honest, I don't like this guy's chances either, but I certainly wish him well.) While I'm not the biggest fan of this kind of candidate making this kind of ad and sending out this kind of fundraising email, I'm also not the target audience.
posted by box at 9:28 AM on May 24, 2021 [2 favorites]

I feel like: good for you! Also: we are so fucked. To be fair, that’s how I feel about many many things these days.
posted by Bella Donna at 10:01 AM on May 24, 2021 [3 favorites]

The great slate and state slate tried very very VERY hard with schoelten and a bunch of other local Iowa Dems. They were trashed.

Their conclusion was essentially all senate and house races, (as well as many statehouse races )in the usa, with the exception of a few high profile local swing states have been utterly nationalized.

Your local race in a red state is running against Nancy pelosi and 40 years of anti Dem demonization.

combibed with the utterly bubbled realities that people get their facts from this is Bad News.

I have no idea what to do about this.
posted by lalochezia at 10:17 AM on May 24, 2021 [6 favorites]

It's going to take many years of relentless counter-programming to break the spell conservative media have built over the past 40 years or so throughout midwest states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc.
posted by Thorzdad at 10:23 AM on May 24, 2021 [4 favorites]

He's not likely to win, but it's still good that he's running. Drains off some Republican money and time, and if the ultimate Democratic candidate hits the right groove and theme, it's one more counter-example to the stereotypes.
posted by Bryant at 10:31 AM on May 24, 2021 [2 favorites]

The great slate and state slate tried very very VERY hard with schoelten and a bunch of other local Iowa Dems. They were trashed.

Scholten was always going to be the absolute longest of long shots. That district has always been solidly, intractably Republican, and he did way better than anyone in Iowa expected. Ten years ago, Democrats could win statewide office in Iowa even though the fourth district was intractably Republican. Whatever has happened in Iowa, I don't think it's that the fourth district has suddenly become conservative, because that was always the case. Where we're losing votes is in smaller cities, not rural areas.

I honestly don't have a clue how Democrats can win in Iowa, but I don't think it's going to be by trying to out-rural the Republicans. We tried that in 2020 with both Theresa Greenfield and Rita Hart, and it didn't work.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:59 AM on May 24, 2021 [1 favorite]

Your local race in a red state is running against Nancy Pelosi

Friends, my opponent has been railing about Nancy Pelosi all week. I don't know how to tell him this, but Nancy lives in California whereas I live right down the street. If he's so worried about her, he can move to San Francisco and fight her there. What I want to do is fight for the people of Iowa right here...
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:03 AM on May 24, 2021 [9 favorites]

I mean, do you think we're complete idiots? I promise you, people have tried that. And nobody even listens to them, because they're getting all their news from right-wing talk radio, local news on Sinclair-owned channels, and stuff people are sharing on Facebook.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 11:05 AM on May 24, 2021 [11 favorites]

Their conclusion was essentially all senate and house races, (as well as many statehouse races )in the usa, with the exception of a few high profile local swing states have been utterly nationalized.

This is pretty accurate from what I can see. Case in point, my uncle was the longest-serving Republican in the Iowa state legislature and he switched to the Democratic Party during his last term. People in his district had been voting for him for one office or another since the late 1970s. I had never in my entire life seen him lose an election. Once there was a (D) by his name, he was easily voted out.
posted by TrialByMedia at 11:10 AM on May 24, 2021 [6 favorites]

Meanwhile, in neighboring Wisconsin: state Senator challenging Liz Cheney says he impregnated 14-year-old when he was 18; vows to continue Congressional campaign (NBC, May 21, 2021) "She was a little younger than me, so it's like the Romeo and Juliet story," state Sen. Anthony Bouchard said of the girl he later married and divorced.

Anthony Bouchard, now 55, legally married the girl in Florida when she was 15*; Bouchard described "kind of a bitter divorce" three years later; she died by suicide at 20. As for their son, Bouchard said, "My son got to experience things and live life. Sadly he's made some wrong choices in his life. He’s almost become my estranged son, some of the things that he’s got going on in his life I certainly don’t approve of them but I'm not going to abandon him." Bouchard says opposition research/"the establishment swamp" forced him to make the disclosure, and mentions being contacted by a UK newspaper (the Daily Mail). Bouchard told the Casper Tribune that he "did not believe Cheney was involved in attempts to publicize the story. Her spokesman, Jeremy Adler, told the paper, 'The Cheney campaign had no involvement in this at all.'"

*Legally, at the time; Florida marriage licenses today
posted by Iris Gambol at 11:27 AM on May 24, 2021 [4 favorites]

No one who is a Republican or votes for them cares, Cheese. I listened to people on the street when waiting to early vote in the capital of Iowa and they. do. not. care. Iowa is no longer a purple state, it's as backward as like Alabama.

Also, Iris, I think you meant Wyoming, not Wisconsin. Wyoming does not in any way border Iowa. While Wisconsin does, the race is not being held there.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 11:30 AM on May 24, 2021 [3 favorites]

I was born in Crawford county, where Dave lives. Still have lots of family there and I still live in Iowa. I think all around this is smart messaging for the state. Iowa has a long history of this type of rural progressivism. We were a purple state until the last 5 years when the republicans here lost their goddamned minds and went all in for Trump and things have been going extremely downhill. I think sadly any messaging to the left of this is not going to have a lot of appeal outside of Polk and Johnson counties, which will vote dem anyway. The only way to win back the Obama-Trump voters (of which there are tons here) is to convince the rural counties that democratic leadership will be better for their dying economies. I'm not sure it's possible to get them back.

Unless something drastic changes, the outlook for this state is very bad indeed. Young people leave in droves, nobody wants to move here because of how backwards it has become. Rural communities have crumbled and a lot of the once-charming small towns supported by local farmers are just wastelands now or small sad hubs for meat processing plant workers. The republicans currently in power have convinced the rural population that immigrants are to blame for this, but of course it's actually Tyson, Monsanto, ADM, and a conservative leadership that is more worried about banning mask mandates (in a state that never even had a mask mandate) than trying to fix our real problems, stop the brain drain, and improve life here.
posted by Lutoslawski at 11:43 AM on May 24, 2021 [14 favorites]

But the issue is that progressives need to loudly announce their moral highground, to their detriment both in entrenched democratic power structures and with remote voters that feed off the strife.

This isn't about progressive credentials or moral high ground. It's about the goddamn Prisoner's Dilemma.

Democrats are so stuck on "civility" and trying to win minds instead of hearts that they're like the rube who always tries to "cooperate" when their opponent has shown willingness to "defect."

They go low, we go high, and they cut us at the knees, every damn time.

Pull on the heartstrings. Hell, yearn for that idyllic 50s/60s dream, but point out that it was the New Deal that brought it. If "socialism" doesn't cut it there? Don't use that term. But make it damn clear that the Republicans are the party of the CEOs, and that Democrats are the party of the workers. Republicans are taking food out of your kid's mouth. Stuff like that.

They've pushed us right for 50+ years now with scaremongering and emotional sentiment. Not any sort of rational appeal. We need to push the Overton Window back.
posted by explosion at 11:49 AM on May 24, 2021 [15 favorites]

Thanks, OnTheLastCastle.
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:02 PM on May 24, 2021

The pictures in this should have been all black and white. They needed to be of farmers and small town business people who lost it all during the Farm Crisis. This guy needed to in voice-over offer his plan for bringing back rural life in Iowa, about how he is going to empower his children so they have an incentive to stay on the family farm in thirty years rather selling out and moving to the city.

I want this guy to tell me why I should vote for him as if he's convincing his kids.
posted by Fukiyama at 12:31 PM on May 24, 2021

I live in Manning, Iowa with my wife, Linda, and our three kids Chas, Ava, and Roslyn. So when I say we need to invest in midwestern communities and create opportunity for our kids: I mean it because it's personal.

So, I'm a giant queerdo who is single and will always be single, so I fully expect to never ever in my life be targeted by a politician or even mentioned in passing, SO, I'm curious. People with wives and kids -- does this actually appeal to you? Do you feel closer to him, or feel he understands you really hardcore? Serious question! Because, well, a lot of people have partners and kids; this doesn't make this dude special. I'm genuinely curious if it feels more personal? Or is this just what the PoliticBot AI told him to say?
posted by kalimac at 12:32 PM on May 24, 2021 [7 favorites]

I don't have a spouse or kids, and I generally roll my eyes at this kind of family-man stuff, but I think it does make a difference that he lives specifically in Manning, Iowa with his wife and kids. Manning is a town of 1500 people. It's a 90-minute drive to a city of any size. As somebody who lives in one of the "small sad hubs for meat processing plant workers" that Lutoswalski mentioned upthread, I do feel that it's really hard to be a young person here trying to find economic opportunities for yourself and knowing you're not going to be able to achieve your ambitions except by moving at least as far as Iowa City, or Des Moines, or Omaha. It's really hard to be a parent in rural Iowa and scared about what kind of economic opportunities your kids are going to have.

And while Iowa is chasing big companies that promise to provide lots of jobs, the legislature is ALSO passing tons of conservative legislation that makes Iowa an even less appealing place to live if you're, let's say, a person who's capable of getting pregnant.

All that doesn't necessarily make Muhlbauer any better than anyone else at figuring out how to help rural Iowa economies. Personal experience definitely doesn't translate into policy. But... I don't know, I do think "I am worried about rural Iowa economies because that's the economy my kids are growing up in" is a better argument than "Look at my wife and kids! Family values!"
posted by Jeanne at 1:01 PM on May 24, 2021 [14 favorites]

Democrats are so stuck on "civility" and trying to win minds instead of hearts that they're like the rube who always tries to "cooperate" when their opponent has shown willingness to "defect."

Pull on the heartstrings. Hell, yearn for that idyllic 50s/60s dream, but point out that it was the New Deal that brought it. If "socialism" doesn't cut it there? Don't use that term. But make it damn clear that the Republicans are the party of the CEOs, and that Democrats are the party of the workers. Republicans are taking food out of your kid's mouth. Stuff like that.


I disagree with this. Democrats are not the party of the workers, they're the party of the managerial class. There is no workers party. People aren't dumb, you can't just tell them you're on their side and then kowtow to the big banks every single time. The Republicans don't pretend to be on the side of labor issues, they pretend to be culturally on the side of the white working class, and that appears to be enough.
posted by chaz at 1:38 PM on May 24, 2021 [10 favorites]

I say this as someone who grew up extremely rural and still have plenty of family and friends who are far more remote than literally anywhere in the state of Iowa: There's a reason "parochial" is considered an insult. Living in a small town is not a fucking qualification for political office, other than say, mayor of a small town.

I also think John Mellencamp sucks.
posted by aspersioncast at 2:12 PM on May 24, 2021

While I merely dislike John Mellencamp (I mean, dude had some bops), he probably has a better shot at becoming the governor of Indiana than (checks notes) Woody Myers (even though Mellencamp once told Rolling Stone he's a socialist).
posted by box at 3:05 PM on May 24, 2021 [1 favorite]

I disagree with this. Democrats are not the party of the workers, they're the party of the managerial class. There is no workers party. People aren't dumb, you can't just tell them you're on their side and then kowtow to the big banks every single time.



Respectfully dissent in part, concur in part.

FDR wasn't a socialist or a member of a worker's party. Neither was LBJ. Neither was Obama. Neither is Biden. And yet we have seen much more progress -- in the spirit of progressivism -- from them than we have under Republican presidents. That's absolutely beyond argument. Dems may not be socialists, but they are absolutely better for workers than Republicans, on balance.

Of course, many Democrats are more centrist than I'd care for. Sinema's centrism, for example, is a shame. But there are right now a vast majority of Dem Reps and Senators among their caucus that are supporting raising the minimum wage. The fact that there aren't enough Dems in Congress to get it passed is, in fact, the voters' fault.

Because if voters in red states like Indiana and Ohio and Iowa and the Dakotas decided, "You know what? I think I want the minimum wage raised! I want Medicare to be expanded! I want unemployment benefits to be extended! Who can I vote for that will do that?", then they'd find a candidate right there on the ticket that would be much more likely to do that, with a D beside their name.

But they don't vote for them. Not because Democrats are "the party of management", but because Republicans are offering something those voters prioritize much higher than their economic security.

So that leaves us with the question of why. And I'd agree that reason for many voting Republican -- the thing these voters are prioritizing over workers' rights, expanded health care, economic stability, the social safety net, raising the minimum wage, etc. -- is indeed the cultural affinity and cultural supremacy that the Republicans have been selling.

That, in fact, all those studies were right: the "economic security" concerns that many voters claim as their reason for voting Republican is, more often than not, a smokescreen for cultural attitudes that view the increasing equality and political power of people of color, immigrants, urbanites and LGBTQ as being threatening to their self-identity and privilege.

But no matter how many studies show that, we conveniently (or perhaps politely) elide it, and then engage in yet another round of "how can we address Trump voters' economic uncertainty in a way that makes them feel that Democrats haven't abandoned them." For many, you can't, because what's at the heart of the issue is not "workers" issues, at all.
posted by darkstar at 5:32 PM on May 24, 2021 [21 favorites]

I mean, I’m recalling reporters interviewing Midwestern, working class Trump voters asking them how those Trump tariffs were affecting them personally. Several of them said the tariffs would cause serious financial suffering, with a few saying that it would probably drive them out of business or cost them their jobs. But then, to a one, they said they were still voting for Trump.

So yeah, something else is going on there, other than “economic insecurity”.
posted by darkstar at 5:52 PM on May 24, 2021 [6 favorites]

David Shor suggests that the Democrats should target cross-pressured voters, not die-hard Republican voters.

So this suggests there’s a big mass of voters who agree with us on some issues, and disagree with us on others. And whenever we talk about a given issue, that increases the extent to which voters will cast their ballots on the basis of that issue.

Mitt Romney and Donald Trump agreed on basically every issue, as did Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. And yet, a bunch of people changed their votes. And the reason that happened was because the salience of various issues changed. Both sides talked a lot more about immigration, and because of that, correlation between preferences on immigration and which candidate people voted for went up. In 2012, both sides talked about health care. In 2016, they didn’t. And so the correlation between views on health care and which candidate people voted for went down.

So this means that every time you open your mouth, you have this complex optimization problem where what you say gains you some voters and loses you other voters. But this is actually cool because campaigns have a lot of control over what issues they talk about.

Non-college-educated whites, on average, have very conservative views on immigration, and generally conservative racial attitudes. But they have center-left views on economics; they support universal health care and minimum-wage increases. So I think Democrats need to talk about the issues they are with us on, and try really hard not to talk about the issues where we disagree. Which, in practice, means not talking about immigration.

posted by russilwvong at 8:16 PM on May 24, 2021 [6 favorites]

I’m hearing the implicit idea that we in this discussion know the magic words that will inspire voters, and that those Iowa/Midwest Democrats are just too foolish/feckless/compromised to use those magic words. I think this idea is ridiculous. I also think an Iowa Democrat has a better chance of solving this puzzle than I do, even if that chance is slim.
posted by argybarg at 10:08 PM on May 24, 2021 [6 favorites]

I'm sure every candidate (D or R) running in a red area will only have to answer one important question for the upcoming 2022 election: "If you're elected to office will you hold Joe Biden accountable by impeaching him for stealing the 2020 election?"
posted by FJT at 11:19 PM on May 24, 2021

Because if voters in red states like Indiana and Ohio and Iowa and the Dakotas decided, "You know what? I think I want the minimum wage raised! I want Medicare to be expanded! I want unemployment benefits to be extended! Who can I vote for that will do that?", then they'd find a candidate right there on the ticket that would be much more likely to do that, with a D beside their name.

You all know there are workers other than people who make minimum wage, right? I mean, I think it takes a long loop-de-loop (economically speaking) to convince people that if you raise minimum wage, that all other jobs are going to rise in wages proportionally. Republicans are able to message in that loop de loop really well.

If Democrats really are the party of the management class (IMO they are not), then they need to increase messaging that appeals to that class. It's very clear that healthcare doesn't cut it, because most middle class people seem to like their healthcare, even if when using it they consider it slightly expensive.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:19 AM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]

If Democrats really are the party of the management class (IMO they are not), then they need to increase messaging that appeals to that class. It's very clear that healthcare doesn't cut it, because most middle class people seem to like their healthcare, even if when using it they consider it slightly expensive.

Also watch the John Mellencamp video posted above. Those farmers in the intro to the video want price controls, not loans. They don't want to roll the dice. They want direct subsidy. Maybe the midwest messaging can be price controls on every crop, not unlike rent control (federally or state back subsidy) in the cities. IDK. They don't want a free market, that is for sure.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:25 AM on May 25, 2021 [1 favorite]

They don't want a free market, that is for sure.
Also I hate to keep copying myself but Republican messaging is pretty much 'price controls for me, the free market for thee'?
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:53 AM on May 25, 2021

Jon Tester fooled me once.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 11:44 AM on May 25, 2021

Other Democrats either announced or probably going to announce as Senate candidates for 2022: John Fetterman and Malcolm Kenyatta for the PA Senate seat vacated by retiring Pat Toomey.

Charles Booker is exploring a run against Rand Paul. He's a long shot, but I'd rather waste money on him than another centrist.

As for David Shor, some dissenting views: The Cult of Shor

As for the candidate in the ad, I guess he knows his state. I get the feeling there are less persuadable voters anymore than there used to be. More and more people live within their own bubbles of media consumption and interpersonal ties. I'm also afraid people are getting burned out from what almost seems like the hyperpolitics of the past 4 to 6 years. I fear that is bad news for the Democrats, because the opposition party always is more energized in the midterms. Then there is Republican voter suppression and the fact that the US constitution basically gerrymanders the country in favor of Republican/conservative leaning demographics. If this guy can succeed on personal connections and his own reputation within Iowa, who knows?
posted by eagles123 at 6:06 PM on May 25, 2021 [2 favorites]