"a kind of tangible curiosity that statistics encourages"

October 15, 2021 2:09 PM

"one of my co-workers had a tortoise called Pietro who could supposedly predict the weather ... I pondered how one might go about rigorously evaluating this claim". Conner Jackson collects and analyses data on the accuracy of weather prediction by Pietro the tortoise. The Royal Statistical Society explains why the article won their early-career writing award. Pietro's Instagram account. Other weather-forecasting tortoises include Herman in New Zealand.
posted by paduasoy (6 comments total)

To my fellow MeFites who may skip Reading the Fine Article: do click through at least for the title. (And the first paragraph, while you're there.) (And hey, scroll down to the Disclosure Statement too.)

I agree with everything the RSS said about Jackson's piece. (Huh. They call him by his first name. Nice.) It's a charming and delightful work, and does a lovely, clear, light-handed job of illustrating the process of using statistics to investigate a question - showing not just the obvious step of coming up with a hypothesis, but more precisely: how do we define our question in a way that actually affects and informs our lives? What do we mean by "accuracy" within the context of our question? And then, what analytical approach is most suited to this question?

And his enthusiasm is so wonderful: "I loved this project because it reminded me of why I love statistics." How many statistics papers even contain the phrase "I love"?

I am so glad to have had the chance to read this, paduasoy. Thank you so much for sharing it with us!
posted by kristi at 3:41 PM on October 15, 2021 [8 favorites]

Pietro is very handsome and that was a delightful read.
posted by dorothyisunderwood at 8:27 PM on October 15, 2021 [2 favorites]

at one point in early April, the camera footage blacked out for a few seconds, and I couldn't help but wonder if Pietro was pulling some elaborate heist in which he needed to replace the camera footage with old footage in order to prevent me from seeing what he was truly up to. But honestly, I did not observe any real mischief worth sharing

I've already spotted a flaw in his observations.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:31 PM on October 15, 2021 [2 favorites]

I agree, this is a wonderful and whimsical little article that cheered this old coot up. If anyone is wondering, you do not need to be a stats nerd at all to derive joy from this article.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:44 AM on October 16, 2021 [1 favorite]

That was wonderful, there is hope for the world.
posted by BobTheScientist at 2:13 PM on October 16, 2021 [1 favorite]

Glad people liked it! Thanks to those who highlighted the readability etc, I know I tend to undersell my posts. People might also enjoy this, also from the RSS: Bats, parachutes and bridges (by Sandra Alba, epidemiologist).
posted by paduasoy at 1:18 AM on October 18, 2021 [1 favorite]